Presentation - Malaysia Geospatial Forum 2014

Presentation - Malaysia Geospatial Forum 2014

Malaysia Geospatial Forum 2014
11-12 March 2014
THE VALUE OF GEOSPATIAL
TECHNOLOGIES IN WATER
RESOURCES AND CLIMATE CHANGE
RESEARCH
Ir. Mohd Zaki Mat Amin
Khairul Anam Musa
Nurul Huda Md Adnan
Goh Yee Cai
Water Resources and Climate Change Research Centre
National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia (NAHRIM)
OUTLINE
1
SETTING THE SCENE
2
METHODOLOGY – WATER
RESOURCES MODELING
3
CASE STUDY
4
CONCLUSION
STUDY OF ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE – EXPERIENCE FROM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Floods
Setting the Scene – Climate Change Study
Peninsular
Malaysia
(2006)
East Malaysia
(2010)

2006: A regional hydrologicatmospheric model of Peninsular
Malaysia called ‘Regional
Hydro-climate Model of
Peninsular Malaysia
(RegHCM-PM) was developed

2010: A regional hydrologicatmospheric model of East
Malaysia called ‘Regional
Hydro-climate Model of
Sabah and Sarawak
(RegHCM-SS) was developed;

2011-2014 (on-going): Extension
Study of the Climate Change
Impacts on Water Resources for
Peninsular Malaysia is being
developed; 15 emission scenarios
used with refer to SRES A1B,
A1FI, B1, & A2.
Setting the Scene – Future Rainfall
 More extreme weather conditions in the future
(2025-2050) may be expected since higher
maximum and lower minimum rainfall are
observed.
 Increase in maximum monthly rainfall of up to
51% over Pahang, Kelantan and Terengganu.
 Decrease in minimum monthly rainfall from 32%
to 61% for all over Peninsular Malaysia.
OUTLINE
1
SETTING THE SCENE
2
METHODOLOGY – WATER
RESOURCES MODELING
3
CASE STUDY
4
CONCLUSION
STUDY OF ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE – EXPERIENCE FROM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
WETTEST
MONTH: DEC.
(10-1240mm)
Average Rainfall
(Dec 1990-2009)
= 347.6mm
10-1240mm
1-day max annual rainfall
map of Peninsular Malaysia
SG. KELANTAN
SG.
DUNGUN KEMAMAN
SG.
JOHORMERSING
P. PINANG, KEDAH & PERLIS REGION
GREATEST RECORDED
MAX. 1-DAY RAIN
5402001 Klinik Bt. Bendera
499. 6mm - 8 Nov 2003
100-YEAR 1-DAY DESIGN
RAINFALL
2025
2031
P. PINANG, KEDAH & PERLIS REGION
GREATEST RECORDED
MAX. 1-DAY RAIN
5402001 Klinik Bt. Bendera
499. 6mm - 8 Nov 2003
100-YEAR 1-DAY DESIGN
RAINFALL
2025
2031
OUTLINE
1
SETTING THE SCENE
2
METHODOLOGY – WATER
RESOURCES MODELING
3
CASE STUDY
4
CONCLUSION
STUDY OF ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE – EXPERIENCE FROM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
LOCATION OF STUDY AREA
PRIMARY OBJECTIVE
to carry out adaptation to climate change on water
resources
GOAL
to quantify the potential climate change
impacts on water resources and also to
determine appropriate adaptation options
for minimising the impacts
LOCATION OF
STUDY AREA -1
FRAMEWORK OF CLIMATE
CHANGE – WATER RESOURCES
ADAPTATION
Sub-Catchment of River Drainage
System – what is really needed?
BASELINE SCENARIO
Design Floods Estimation
 Event based data - calibration &
validation
 Rainfall
 Flood flow
 Evaporation
 Design based information
 Design rainstorm –
Intensity - DurationFrequency (IDF)
 Area-Reduction Factor
CLIMATE CHANGE
 TO INCORPORATE WITH
CLIMATE CHANGE
FACTOR
15
GEOSPATIAL DATA
OF SUNGAI
KEDAH
Topography map and
designated subcatchments of Sungai
Kedah Drainage System
PRESENT LANDUSE
FUTURE LANDUSE (2020)
CN values – Sg Kedah
CN values ≤ 70
19
Hydrologic Soil
Infiltration Rate Landuse (2002)
Group (HSG)
Curve Number
(CN) 2002
1
CLIMATIC (CHANGE &
VARIABILITY) & NONCLIMATIC FORCING
SYSTEM
[MEDIUM]
RESERVOIR
OR
SUFFICIENT
FUTURE
LOW
FUTURE
FLOODS
IDF
STORAGE
FLOW
PROTECTION
CAPACITY
1
CLIMATE
VARIABILITY
2
NONCLIMATIC
FACTOR
2
3
OUTPUT –
RIVER FLOW
EXPECTED
SYSTEM
IMPACTS
1 18 GCM
DYNAMIC STATISTICAL
DOWNSCALING
2 RAINSTNS
BIAS CORR.
reduce
TO INCORPORATE
vulnerability WITH
CLIMATEofCHANGE
system FACTOR
3 BASIN CCF
CC ‘LOAD’
FACTOR
EARTH
OBSER
VATION
4 RAINSTNS
DISAGGREGATE
1-DAY RAIN
4
ADAPTATION
PRODUCTS,
ACTIONS &
OPTIONS
Future projected IDF
SRES A1B
1 18 GCM
DYNAMIC STATISTICAL
DOWNSCALING
27km x 27km
9km x 9km
2 7 R-STNS
BIAS CORR.
3 BASIN CCF
CC ‘LOAD’
FACTOR
4 7 R-STNS
DISAGGREGATE
1-DAY RAIN
FUTURE IDF
SUNGAI KEDAH
RAINFALLRUNOFF
MODELING
 HEC-HMS
MODEL
 43 SUBCATCHMENTS
 BASELINE
SCENARIO
 BASELINE &
CC
SCENARIOS
DERIVED CLIMATE CHANGE FACTOR AND PROJECTED MAGNITUDE
OF PEAK FLOODS WITH CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
Time
Horizon
Climate
Change
Factor
(CCF)
Peak Discharges (Q) 100 years ARI
1-Day
Design
Rainfall
Climate
Change
Scenario
Flood
Magnitude, QC
(m3/s)
Floods
Magnitude
Increment
(m3/s)
Percentage
Increment
(%)
Baseline
1.00
240.6
2047.9
-
-
2020
1.05
245.2
2111.2
63.3
3.1
2030
1.09
256.5
2267.9
220.0
10.7
2040
1.14
268.0
2430.2
382.3
18.7
2050
1.19
280.0
2601.9
554.0
27.1
2060
1.25
292.6
2785.3
737.4
36.0
2.50
1.50
2.00
1.40
737m3/s [598.1]
Increment rate
of flow
1.50
1.30
554m3/s [449.5]
1.00
1.20
382m3/s[310.5]
220m3/s [179]
0.50
1.10
Increment rate
of rainfall
0.00
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Projection Year (2020 -2070)
2055
2060
2065
1.00
2070
Climate Change Factor
Relative Temperature (°C)
Projected Daily Annual Mean Surface Temperature for Malaysia
& Climate Change Factor of Sungai Kedah
ANALYSIS OUTCOME: WATER RESOURCES SECTOR
FLOOD MAPS– SG KEDAH
Time
horizon
Area for flood depth (km2)
0.01 0.5 >1.2 m
Sum
0.5 m
1.2 m
Baseline
50.50
41.55
35.57
127.62
2020
51.24
43.91
37.92
133.06
2030
51.01
45.18
39.90
136.10
2040
50.51
46.86
42.00
139.36
2050
49.13
49.17
44.20
142.50
2060
48.16
50.00
46.95
145.10
Estimated Flood Damages in Kedah
(Baseline & 2060)
ANALYSIS OUTCOME: WATER RESOURCES SECTOR
FLOOD MAPS– SG SKUDAI
Time
horizon
Area for flood depth (km2)
0.01 0.5 >1.2 m
Sum
0.5 m
1.2 m
Baseline
1.83
2.88
4.31
9.02
2020
1.83
2.88
4.25
8.95
2030
1.74
2.97
4.96
9.68
2040
1.59
2.90
5.72
10.21
2050
1.55
2.78
6.69
11.01
2060
1.51
2.63
7.82
11.96
ANALYSIS OUTCOME: WATER RESOURCES SECTOR
FLOOD MAPS– SG PULAI
Time
horizon
Area for flood depth (km2)
0.01 0.5 >1.2 m
Sum
0.5 m
1.2 m
Baseline
13.80
2.56
0.55
16.91
2020
13.73
2.47
0.51
16.71
2030
12.54
2.39
0.56
15.48
2040
12.41
2.64
0.66
15.71
2050
12.12
3.08
0.84
16.04
2060
12.24
2.97
0.80
16.01
OUTLINE
1
SETTING THE SCENE
2
METHODOLOGY – WATER
RESOURCES MODELING
3
CASE STUDY
4
CONCLUSION
STUDY OF ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE – EXPERIENCE FROM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
The outcome from these studies will be able to:
• Reduce water-related disasters;
• Enhance the resilience of water-related infrastructure;
• Improve the resilience of communities in context of
climate change adaptation.
Thank you