Future Dynamics of Wageingen Inner city
Transcription
Future Dynamics of Wageingen Inner city
FUTURE DYNAMICS OF WAGENINGEN INNER CITY Remote sensing and GIS Integration Course (GRS60312) Team Members RGIC-06-11 : Yahya Darmawan 810818-172-060 Dessalegn Gemeda 820902-255-030 Roland Kielema 871105-433-120 Charlaine Vaseur 821201-852-120 Jeroen van de Voort 860424-904-040 Commissioner: Roel During Coach: Sytze de Bruin Wageningen, 21-06-2011 Acknowledgments We would like to thank our project commissioner, Roel During, for his support and advice during this project. We would like to thank our project coach, Sytze de Bruin for his guidance and help during the project. We would like to thank the Platform Stadsgracht Wageningen, and especially Rienk Kuiper for reviewing our result. This information was very useful. We would also like to thank Tom Kool for reviewing our results, and giving us additional useful information on plan currently in development at the municipality. We would like to thank Maarten van de Wijgaard for his insight on monuments within the Wageingen area, and Paulisca Vreeke for providing us with much needed information about these monuments. We would like to thank Steven van Schuppen for sharing his knowledge on general causes for city dynamics and Aart Jan van Duren for sharing his knowledge on the development of internet shopping. Abstract A civil initiative called the “Platform Stadsgracht Wageningen”, strives for restoring the historic fortifications and with that the identity of the historic inner city of Wageningen, a municipality within the Gelderland province of the Netherlands. Restoring the identity should be part of the strategic city development planning. To know when certain parts of the inner city need restoration, renovation or renewal, the residual time of buildings needs to be determined. The objectives of this research are to develop a methodology to estimate residual time of buildings and visualize this residual time on a map. We used the Basisregistratie Adressen en Gebouwen (BAG), a cadastral map from 2004, the topographic map of the Netherlands and data about monuments within the Wageningen area. We determined different building types and classified the buildings in the inner city accordingly. For every building type, we found an estimated residual time through literature research and expert consultation. When a building contained more than one building type, we assigned the shortest residual time of the building types to the building. A map was created in ArcGIS, which was reviewed by experts in the field. Keywords: residual time buildings, Wageningen, Platform Stadsgracht Wageningen Table of contents Acknowledgments ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Abstract -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 1 2 3 Introduction --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 1.1 General information ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 1.2 Problem analysis -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 1.3 Objectives ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 1.4 Study area ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 1.5 Overview of the report ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 Data and methodology -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 2.1 Data ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 6 2.2 Methodology ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 Results --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 3.1 The different building types and their location within Wageningen ------------------------------ 8 3.2 Causes for city dynamics ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 3.3 Residual time per building type -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 3.3.1 Houses--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 3.3.2 Shops ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------10 3.3.3 Offices--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------11 3.3.4 Monuments --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------11 3.3.5 Horeca, religious, public buildings ---------------------------------------------------------------12 3.4 The estimated residual time per building --------------------------------------------------------------12 3.5 Review of the intermediate result -----------------------------------------------------------------------13 3.6 Final map of estimated residual time -------------------------------------------------------------------14 4 Conclusions --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------16 5 Discussions --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------17 6 Recommendations ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------18 7 References ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------19 Appendix 1 Flowchart Methodology----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Appendix 2 Building types in Wageningen inner city -------------------------------------------------------------Appendix 3 Factsheet offices within Ede and Veenendaal -------------------------------------------------------Appendix 4 Empty offices per municipality -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 1.1 Introduction General information The inner city of Wageningen, a municipality within the Gelderland province, was once a fortified city. A civil initiative called the “Platform Stadsgracht Wageningen”, strives for restoring the historic fortifications and with that the identity of the historic inner city. Restoring the identity of Wageningen as historic inner city follows a trend in the Netherlands that proves that investing in culture can generate income out of tourism (Platform Stadsgracht Wageningen, 2011). Restoring the historic fortifications should take place whenever there are plans for development in the inner city. To implement this, the platform wants some alternatives worked out, and for this, they contacted the Wageningen Science shop (Wetenschapswinkel WUR, 2011). The Science shop in return contacted Alterra, the commissioner within this project. 1.2 Problem analysis Restoring the identity of a fortified city should be part of the strategic management of city development on the long term. Rehabilitation of buildings can take place whenever certain parts of the inner city need restoration, renovation or renewal. To know when certain parts of the inner city need restoration, renovation or renewal, the residual time of buildings needs to be determined. Within this research, the residual time for buildings is defined as: “the time a building will remain in its current form.” Within this definition, the residual time is not only related to the moment the building will be demolished, but also to the change of function of the building. 1.3 Objectives The objectives of this research are to: 1. develop a methodology to estimate residual time of buildings; 2. create a map that presents the estimated residual time of buildings. We formulated the following research questions: 1. What different type of buildings are in the inner city of Wageningen, and where are they located? 2. What are causes for city dynamics in the different building classes and how does this influence residual time? 3. What is the estimated residual time per building type? 4. What is the estimated residual time per building, and how can this be presented in a map? 5. How can the results be reviewed? 1.4 Study area The study area is formed by the historical city- centre of the Wageningen municipality bounded by the old medieval city canal. Wageningen lies in the province Gelderland and has an area size of about 32,35 km². The population of about 37.579 citizens as of January 2011 (Gemeente Wageningen, 2011) is formed for a large part by students. The extent of the study area in RD coordinates is: - North: 442273 m - West: 173660 m - East: 174295 m - South: 441633 m 4 An image of the study area is displayed below: Figure 1 The study area bounded by the red box 1.5 Overview of the report In chapter 2 we will start by giving an overview of the data used and the methodology we applied to determine the residual time of buildings. In chapter 3 we will discuss the causes for city dynamics and we will present our results on the residual time for different building types and buildings. We will end our findings with a conclusion and discussion of the result. 5 2 2.1 Data and methodology Data We used the following data within this research: - The Basisregistratie Adressen en Gebouwen of the Netherlands (BAG). This register contains basic data on all municipal buildings and addresses in the Netherlands. The Cadastre administers the data, and makes it available to government, businesses, institutions and citizens (Ministerie van Infrastructuur en Milieu, 2011). The BAG geoviewer, administrated by Geodan was used to gather the BAG- data. - Data about monuments within the Wageningen area. The Wageningen municipality provided this data to us. - Topographic map TOP10NL: TOP10NL the digital topographic database of the Land Registry which can be used at scales between 1: 5000 and 1: 25000.This topographic map covers the whole of the Netherlands (Cadastre, 2011) - A map of the Cadastre from 2004 showing the location of the land parcels. The map shows lot numbers, major buildings, street names and house numbers (Cadastre, 2011). The WUR GeoDesk provided this data to us. We did not have the BAG- data available to us in GIS format. If we would have, the Topographic map and the cadastral data would have been unnecessary. We will go further into this in our methodology. Within our research, we consulted several experts in the field of city- planning and real- estate. The experts we consulted are: Breunissen, Wim: real- estate agent active within the Wageningen area (Breunissen Makelaars, 2011) van Duren, Aart Jan: senior consultant at Bureau Stedelijke Planning BV Kool, Tom: city manager of the inner city of Wageningen Kuiper, Rienk: chairperson of the Platform Stadsgracht Wageningen van Schuppen, Steven: researcher and writer in the field of landscape, history, mentality and spatial planning (van Schuppen, 2011) van de Wijngaart, Maarten: works for the Monument Department of the municipality of Wageningen ArcGIS 9.3 was used to create a map containing residual time of buildings. 2.2 Methodology We applied the following steps within our research: 1. Determine different building types and their location within Wageningen a. Create a map of the buildings: A base map was created in ArcGIS. Since the topographic map TOP10NL contained large polygons, we overlaid this shapefile with the land parcel map of the Cadastre to create a more detailed map. b. Add attributes of the building: We added information on the building year and building type as listed in the BAG as an attribute to every parcel. A classification of building types was made based on the dominant building types in our studyarea. We also used the monument data as a source of information to determine the building type. 6 2. Determine causes for city dynamics. We defined this out of literature research and consultation with our experts. 3. Determine an estimated residual time per building type. The residual time per building type was determined out of literature research and expert elicitation. A query was applied in ArcGIS to determine the residual time per building type based on our findings. 4. Determine an estimated residual time per building and create an intermediate map. If a building contained one building type, we assigned the residual time of that building type to the building. If a building contained more than one building type (e.g a shop and a house), the choice was made to assign the shortest residual time. We made this decision because the municipality needs to know whenever changes might take place, and therefore should know what the shortest residual time of the building is. When for example only one part of the building would change (due to for example renovation), the municipality knows this and can make sure that the new building plans fit into the identity of historic inner city. Exceptions form the monuments, which were always assigned a residual time of 1000 years no matter what building type they are. A map with estimated residual time of buildings was created in ArcGIS 5. Review the intermediate map with a local expert. To review our map Rienk Kuiper and Tom Kool were recommended to us by our commissioner. These experts went into the field with the intermediate results to comment on our findings. When our findings differed from theirs, our results were adapted to their opinion. 6. Create final map with estimated residual time of buildings. A flowchart of our methodology is listed in appendix 1. 7 3 3.1 Results The different building types and their location within Wageningen The first thing we determined were classes for different buildings within the Wageningen area. This information was needed to derive per class a residual time. The classes defined are: - Housing; - Shops; - Office; - Monuments: - Horeca - Religious - Public To determine which buildings were houses, shops and/ or offices we used the BAG- viewer. The monuments were determined out of the data supplied to us from the municipality of Wageningen. The last three classes (horeca, religious and public buildings) were classified in the BAG as gathering points. We made a further subdivision of this class through fieldwork. A feature class with the buildings was created within ArcGIS, and the building types were inserted as different attribute columns. We placed a “1” in a field if a building belonged to a certain building type. A ‘0’ was placed if it did not belong to that type. This way one building can have multiple building types assigned. We listed a map of the different building types within Wageningen inner city as appendix 2 3.2 Causes for city dynamics Barredo et al (2002) states that “urban land use dynamics are the direct consequence of the action of individuals, public and private corporations acting simultaneously in time over the urban space.” Eastman et al., 1993; Voogd, 1983; Carver, 1991 in Barredo et al (2002) grouped factors that have been identified for urban activities in the science of spatial decision-making. These factors we will consider to be the so called causes for city- dynamics. The groups defined by them are: - environmental characteristics: these are represented as constraints for urban growth like for example natural hazards - local- scale neighbourhood characteristics: this is related to the Tobler’s first law of geography. Distance from new features to existing land uses and the type of these land uses drive the urban dynamics at local scale (Barredo et al, 2002). - spatial characteristics of the cities (i.e. accessibility): Here the factors such as distance to the centre, accessibility, flows or transport networks, are included in this group (Barredo et al, 2002). - urban and regional planning policies: this group is represented by the land use zoning status (Barredo et al, 2002) - factors related to individual preferences, level of economic development, socio-economic and political systems: this group of factors is also related to human decision-making processes and could therefore include some level of unpredictability (Barredo et al, 2002). We have found little to no information on city dynamics related to Wageningen belonging to the aforementioned groups. Only for the factors related to individual preferences we found that, technological developments could play a role within the Wageningen inner city. Since there are many shops located within the inner city, internet shopping might play a role. We will go further into that in paragraph 3.3.2. According to van Schuppen (2011; personal communication) apart from the technological developments, also the demography might play a role. In some places of the Netherlands, there is a decrease in population. People will move from city- like environments to communities that are more 8 rural. Van Schuppen (2011; personal communication) expected the population size of Wageningen to be stable because it is a university city. 3.3 Residual time per building type The problem with defining a residual time of buildings (the life cycle of a building) is that it involves various stakeholders (clients, users, architects, designers, utilities engineers, economists, contractors, maintenance engineers, suppliers, financing institutions, local government, state and state institutions). The residual time of a building can be derived by some factors i.e.: - Cost of a building, maintenance costs; - Living space; - Number of floors as well as the requirements to its architecture; - Aesthetics; - Comfortableness; - Functionality; - Proportions; - Materials; - Sound insulation of partition walls; - Taxes and allowances; - Interest rates. (Zavadskas et al, 2001) Sometimes the environment of the building, its ecology, sound level and local infrastructure are also taken into consideration (Zavadskas et al, 2001). Through literature study, we found the following information on residual time per building type: 3.3.1 Houses Haico van Nunen conducted a study in 2008 about the average life in years of houses within the Netherlands, by sending out a questionnaire to experts and shareholders of the Bouwhulpgroep. Given the current knowledge and future expectations, the conclusion for this study is that the average lifespan of a house within the Netherlands is about 120 years, a rate that corresponds to the maximum age of a human being (van Nunen, 2008). For the houses within the inner city of Wageningen we have information on the building year as it is displayed in the BAG- viewer. The expected demolition year will be calculated by adding 120 to the building year. The residual time for houses will then be determined by subtracting the current year (in our case 2011) from the expected demolition year. The formula for this is as follows: expected demolition year – current year expected demolition year = building year + 120 current year = 2011 Houses can always be demolished before the 120 years are up. Hasselaar (2006) conducted research about the average lifespan of houses. According to Hasselaar (2006) the main factors that influence the age of a house are the building quality, the size of the house and its identity. He divided the houses according to their size and type. Results of this research show that for: a. housing type: - multifamily vs. single family housing: the probability that a multifamily house would reach a life span of 100 years was lower than for a single family house or townhouse. - rental vs. privately owned housing: the probability that a rental house would reach a life span of 100 years was lower than for a privately owned house. 9 b. housing size: the survival chance of houses with 5 or more rooms was larger than for smaller houses. One of the experts we consulted also supported this conclusion. From him we learned that if there is demolition of houses it usually involves houses developed in the fifties and sixties, because they no longer meet the requirements in size. According to Hasselaar (2006) houses build in the post-war period up until 1965 are not as sound – and draught proof as other houses. Renovation to improve these flaws is usually significant and costly. A remarkable point in the study of Hasselaar (2006) is that houses build in the period 1931- 1944, generally have a longer survival chance than houses build in other periods. Tom Kool (2011; personal communication) remarked that these type of houses might become monuments. In the Wageningen inner city, there are no big apartment buildings. There are houses situated on the first and or second floor of buildings that have shops on the ground floor. Several of these houses are rented out to students. Within our research, we did not take into account that houses can be demolished sooner, because of the limited amount of data and time. We do not have access to data about the ownership or deeds on houses within Wageningen inner city. With this data, we could determine whether a house was rented out or not. We also do not have data about the size of the house. With this data, we could determine a variation in residual time based on the size of the houses. Considering the amount of time we have to complete this project, it would be too time consuming to go by the houses one by one to gather this data. Therefore, the residual time of houses calculated should be seen as an estimated residual time. 3.3.2 Shops The use of internet shopping is one of the technological and cultural developments of European countries that negatively affect the use of traditional shops. Different researchers indicate that internet shopping (technological development of the city) is accelerated due to efficient use of time and increasing number of computer-trained consumers. Recently, the internet played an important role in facilitating online electronic commerce across different states and nations. Saatchi forecasts that in 40 years electronic retailing will eradicate the use of physical stores (Cope, 1996 in Burke, 1997). Not all shops are affected the same by internet shopping. According to van Schuppen (2011; personal communication) shops that sell luxury items will be affected more by internet shopping than for example grocery stores. According to van Duren (2011; personal communication), stores that are already affected by internet shopping are travelling agencies and video libraries. They have mostly disappeared because the products they sell are mainly bought over the internet. Shops that will be affected by internet shopping in the near future are shops that sell electronics (e.g. TV, camera, and cd), books and clothing. Now already 25% of the electronics and 5-6% of the books and clothing items are bought online. The branch that will be influenced the least by internet shopping are the supermarkets (currently 2.5% is bought online). The reason for this is that people do not want to wait for their food for a day. It is really something they want to have right now, and there is always a supermarket close by (van Duren, 2011; personal communication). Furthermore van Duren (2011; personal communication) mentioned that inner- cities of large cities like Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Utrecht will not be highly affected by internet shopping, because they have more to offer than just shopping. Also what is happening now is that internet shops like e.g. bol.com are opening stores in the inner city now which are being used as a shop where people can pick up the items they just ordered online. Smaller cities like Wageningen however, will be more affected by the increase of internet shopping and should offer something extra in order to keep the city attractive for tourist, especially with larger municipalities nearby. 10 Because different shops are affected differently by internet shopping, we set the residual time of shops to be longer than the 40 years that were mentioned in the study of Burke (1997). We set the residual time for shops at 60 years. 3.3.3 Offices Karremans et al (2011) describe the increasing of empty offices in the past years based on the mismatch between supply and demand. The difference between the economic and technical life expectancy of office buildings has increased over the past years. Currently the technical life expectancy of 40-50 years is often not reached because the economic life expectancy is often shorter due to the faster changes in functional use of an office. Figure 2 shows that the number of empty offices in the Netherlands has increased over the past years. Figure 2 Growth of empty offices (Source: DTEZ Zadelhoff, 2011) When we zoom in on Ede and Veenendaal (data for Wageningen not available) we can observe that in 2010 the number of empty offices has decreased in relation to 2009 (see Appendix 3), but that the difference between available and used offices is more than the average for the Netherlands (appendix 4). Given this information, it is possible that the average residual time of offices is much lower than the average technical life expectance of 40-50 years. This is also confirmed by the company Kantoor Huren Eindhoven (2011), which says that the average residual time for office buildings in Eindhoven is around 30 years. Appendix 4 shows that Eindhoven has less empty offices then the municipality of Ede and Veenendaal. Based on these facts we estimate the expected residual time of offices within Wageningen inner city to be 25 years. 3.3.4 Monuments We expect the residual time for monuments to be infinite. Within this research, infinite is defined as longer than 1000 years. This because monuments are protected by law (Nationaal Restauratiefonds; Rijksdienst voor het Cultureel Erfgoed, 2010). Within article 11 of the law regarding monuments in the Netherlands is stated that it is prohibited to damage or destroy a monument without a permit. Such a permit will only be given if the Monumentenzorg gives approval for that. Additionally the authority keeps in mind the functioning of the monument (Stichting Adviesgroep Bestuursrecht, 2011). The only way a monument can lose its status as a monument, is when the building loses its monumental value as a result of collapsing or fire (Nationaal Restauratiefonds; Rijksdienst voor het Cultureel Erfgoed, 2010). This chance however is very small, and therefore is not accounted for in this research. 11 3.3.5 Horeca, religious, public buildings We do not have information about the residual time of horeca, religious or public buildings. The residual time for these buildings is set as unknown within our research. 3.4 The estimated residual time per building The intermediate result for the estimated residual time per building is displayed below: Figure 3 The intermediate result of the estimated residual time 12 3.5 Review of the intermediate result For reviewing our result, we consulted Rienk Kuiper and Tom Kool. Rienk Kuiper is chairperson of the Platform Stadsgracht and focused more on our results for buildings located around the border of the old inner city. He commented on our intermediate result by going with us in the field. Tom Kool is a city manager of Wageningen inner city. When our estimated residual time differed from theirs, we changed our results. Figure 4 shows the buildings where our estimated residual time was different from that of the expert. Figure 4 The buildings for which the residual time was determined by local experts 13 The buildings that received a different residual time are: 1. SNS building: This building is not used as a bank any more, and is already sold to a project developer that wants to develop a shopping mall. The building will stay in its current form for a maximum of 15 years. 2. Cubic building: This building will be used as parking garage for the shopping mall mentioned before. 3. Post office: This building is already empty. According to Rienk Kuiper (2011; personal communication) it is difficult to modify this building to another purpose, and it will be demolished within 5 years. Tom Kool (2011; personal communication) however stated that this building will probably remain and used for a different purpose. 4. Student housing: The municipality wants to develop housing for higher income. Since the apartments are rather small, they need to be demolished to better satisfy the needs of higher income families. This building will be demolished within 5 years 5. Courthouse: This building is already empty. The building will be used to develop apartments and offices. 6. The theatre: For this building we initially set the residual time as unknown, but this building will have a long residual time according to the expert. 7. The backside of the buildings to the north of the Hoogstraat (next to the postoffice) will be redecorated to look more attractive. 3.6 Final map of estimated residual time The result after the review from the experts is displayed on the next page. 14 Figure 5 The final estimated residual time for buildings within Wageningen inner city 15 4 Conclusions We classified the different types of buildings in the inner city of Wageningen as: Housing; Shops; Office; Monuments; Horeca; Religious; Public. We used the BAG data and the monument data to determine the location of these buildings within the Wageningen inner city. The causes for city dynamics can be grouped as follows: Environmental characteristics; Local- scale neighbourhood characteristics; Spatial characteristics of the cities (i.e. accessibility); Urban and regional planning policies: this group is represented by the land use zoning status; Factors related to individual preferences, level of economic development, socio-economic and political systems. (Eastman et al., 1993; Voogd, 1983; Carver, 1991 in Barredo et al (2002)) Out of the groups mentioned, the factors related to individual preference can play a role within Wageningen inner city. The average life span for the different building types is listed below: Building type Life span (years) Houses 120 Shops 60 from now Offices 25 from now Monuments infinite (> 1000) Horeca, Religious, Public buildings unknown For the houses, we added the life span to the building year to calculate an estimated demolition year. We calculated the estimated residual time by subtracting the current year (2011) from the estimated demolition year. Because some of the buildings within the Wageningen inner city can be classified as belonging to different building classes, the lowest residual time of the building types was assigned to that building. We went into the Wageningen inner city to have our map reviewed by two local experts. Whenever our intermediate result differed from theirs, we changed our map. 16 5 Discussions The determination of residual time is a rather fuzzy concept. After all, a building does not have an end date. It is difficult to make a prediction of the time a building has left, because there are so many factors involved that can influence the residual time. Many of these factors cannot be foreseen or are difficult to account for. (Zavadskas et al, 2001) There are also factors that are difficult to show in a map like for example the expected future dynamics of the shops. According to Cope (1996) in Burke (1997) the improvement of technology will have a high impact on certain shops, and it is likely that some shops will disappear. However, when a shop in the middle of the city centre will disappear because the shop cannot make profit anymore it is more likely that a different type of shop will be established in this building than that the shop will be demolished or given another purpose. So how to map this, and how to determine the residual time for this is rather difficult. Another factor that makes mapping more difficult is the fact some buildings have mixed purposes. In this research, we choose to assign the shortest residual time for these buildings, but it might be the case that the one is affected by the other. When for example a shop and a house are both in the same building but the shop is moving out of the building, will this then affect the house? Furthermore, the data on rental- and privately owned properties was not available. However, this may affect the residual time, because it is likely that rental properties generally have a shorter residual time than privately owned properties, and therefore a distinction between these 2 types should be made. This map should mainly be used as a tool and a guideline to discuss on which area the municipality should put their focus on. The map gives an overview of when a certain area will become available for restoration. Additional to this research a plan should be made on how to fill in the space that becomes available. To make sure that a new building will fit in the picture of Wageningen as a fortified city the municipality should list criteria to which this new building should comply. A nice example of a city that has done something similar to this is the municipality of Harderwijk. In the “Bestuursvisie”, a document created by the municipality of Harderwijk, they state that new buildings in the inner city should comply with the demands set in the zonal map (Gemeente Harderwijk, 2005). New buildings should fit in the historic identity based on size, scale and character, it is however not demanded that the building should have a historic look. Buildings with a new look should however must fit in the total picture of the historic inner city. When there are some buildings next to a building location with a characteristic historical look, then the new building should comply to those same characteristics. These characteristics should be investigated on the following aspects: - Parcel width - Material used on the roof - Gutter height - Shape of the facade opening - Ridge height - Shape of the roof edge - Shape and direction of the Ridge - Details of the facade opening - Slope of the roof - Characteristic use of colours - Material used in facade (Gemeente Harderwijk, 2005) Additionally to this there should be made an list of things that are typical for Wageningen. To recreate the historic identity, insight should be given on things that were originally typical regarding building style, details and colours (Gemeente Harderwijk, 2005). 17 6 Recommendations This map can be further improved by : - Determining the residual time more specifically per building. a. Houses: Hasselaar (2006) showed that the life span is different for rental versus privatly owned houses, multifamily versus single family and or large houses versus small houses. It would be good to take this data into consideration when determining the residual time. Hasselaar (2006) also mentioned that there is a difference in lifespan for buildings that were built during different periods in time. Houses of the thirties tend to be more popular than houses of the sixties and seventies. This information can also be used to further improve our developed methodology. b. Shops: Because not all shops are affected the same by internet shopping, the map would also be improved by differentiating between grocery shops and shops that sell luxury items. c. Horeca, public and religious buildings: We did not have data about the life span for horeca facilities. Further research about this, would also improve our results. - The map could also have been improved by getting feedback on the owners of the buildings, to better get an overview of their plans with the buildings. An interactive viewer to display our result would have been an excellent way to receive such feedback. However, due to lack of time we did not succeed in developing such a viewer. 18 7 References Barredo, J. I., Marjo, K., Niall, M., & Carlo, L. (2002). Modelling dynamic spatial processes: simulation of urban future scenarios through cellular automata. Elsevier, 145-160. Breunissen Makelaars. (2011). Retrieved june 14, 2011, from Breunissen Makelaars: http://www.breunissenmakelaars.nl/ Burke, R. R. (1997). The future of virtual shopping. Academic marketing science, 25(4), 352-360. Cadastre. (2011). Kadastrale Kaart. Retrieved june 14, 2011, from Kadaster: http://www.kadaster.nl/index_frames.html?inhoud=/zakelijk/producten/kadastralekaart.html&navig=/zakelijk/nav_serverside.html%3Fscript%3D1 Cadastre. (2011). TOP10NL. Retrieved june 14, 2011, from Kadaster: http://www.kadaster.nl/top10nl/ DTEZ Zadelhoff. (2011). General information on changing of offices usage. 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