Beaver Portfolio - AAII. LOS ANGELES

Transcription

Assorted Musings
Gary Noreen
Greenhorn
June 25, 2014
Performance Update
Mutual Funds React
Against Tactical Rotators
Agenda
The Fat Myth
Top Dog Stock Strategies
When to Take Social
Security
Market Perspective
Zillow Madness
Retirement Plan Strategy
Optimization
Cal Tech (TIAA-CREF)
Transamerica
On my trusty steed “Choctaw”
Disclosures
Gary Noreen has had or currently holds positions in some of the securities discussed
herein.
The information provided herein is for general information only and should not be
considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The
investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor
needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before
making any investment decision.
Gary Noreen cannot guarantee the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of the
information herein. The views, opinions and estimates herein are subject to change
without notice at any time in reaction to shifting market conditions. Past performance is
no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an
indicator of future performance.
Gary Noreen has received compensation (under $200) for referring people to SectorSurfer.
Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective
of results you should expect to attain.
Celeste Portfolio
Celeste Portfolio
Strategy Name
SectorSurfer ID
June
Alloc.
YODA Fidelity Select/VGLT
635394492177383750-4582-1-70542
VGLT
10%
YODA Hi-Performance
635394523114571250-4582-2-69983
PES
20%
GoWithTheFlow--FLsurfer ds-1/d 635394523114571250-4582-3-70692
VIPS
20%
ETF X-4e /d
635394523114571250-4582-5-45975
EWP
10%
ETF Various Sector /d
635394523114571250-4582-6-50028
XLE
10%
My ETF Power Mix
635394523114571250-4582-7-45902
IDX
10%
Young 4 Equities (KISS)
635394523115196250-4582-11-80973
RSP
20%
Celeste Portfolio
Performance since April
Symbol
Increase
Allocation
VGLT
1.9%
10%
PES
14.5%
20%
VIPS
34.5%
20%
EWP
2.0%
10%
XLE
6.7%
10%
IDX
-4.8%
10%
RSP
4.7%
20%
Portfolio
11.3%
Based at closing prices on April 30 & June 27
SPXTR: 4.5%
YODA: ~3.7%
My Performance
From SigFig.com
SPXTR (S&P Total Return) up 24.1% over the past year
My portfolio had the same funds as the Celeste Portfolio, plus VTI and DODFX. However,
stocks were half weight instead of double weight in my portfolio.
My YTD Performance
SPXTR +7.2%
From Wikinvest.com
Choose the Right Weapons
SPY vs. VTI vs. RSP 1 Year
RSP
SPY
SPY: S&P 500
RSP: S&P 500 equal weight
VTI: CRSP US Total Market Index
VTI
SPY vs. VTI vs. RSP 20 Years
RSP
VTI
SPY
RSP with StormGuard
RSP with AQR StormGuard
(Asymmetric Quick Response)
Information Button
SPY vs. VTI vs. RSP
w/AQR StormGuard
Symbol
Sortino
Ratio
SectorSurfer
Score
Safety
3 Year 10 Year Chance of 15%
Return Return loss in 1 year
Max
DD
SPY w/o
1.91
27.7
0.0
17.9%
9.2%
25.4%
55%
SPY
4.41
43.0
0.0
17.7%
12.3%
9.69%
27%
VTI
4.52
42.5
0.1
17.8%
13.1%
8.25%
19%
RSP
5.93
52.4
0.2
18.4%
14.7%
8.32%
21%
March 26, 1984
The Fat Myth
June 23, 2014
Wall Street Journal
Airline Employees Grounded from
Trading 401(k) Funds
From 2011 to 2013, some 1,300 AA employees were
barred from trading into T. Rowe funds in their
401(k) plans — some for a year, some for life.
Vanguard instructed Southwest to tell its staff that
their purchases could be blocked if they trade on
the advice of investing newsletters.
Be Liquid
Strategy Hall of Fame
February Top 10
Top 10 Top Dog Stock Strategies as of 2/17/14
June Top 10
June Top Dog Picks
VIPS
PES
VIPS
PES
PES
PES
PES
PES
PES
PES
PES
PES
PES
PES
PES
PES
PES
PES
PES
PES
More June
Top Dog Picks
PES
PES
VIPS
PES
PES
VIPS
CVI
PES
PES
PES
Top Dog Strategies June Picks:
25 PES
4 VIPS
1 CVI
February vs. June 27
1. GoWithTheFlow--FLsurfer ds-1/d
10 & 1 Year
Charts
GoWithTheFlow
StormGuard Variations
StormGuard
Sortino SectorSurfer
3 Year 10 Year
Safety
Ratio
Score
Return Return
Chance of 15%
loss in 1 year
Max
DD
Standard
28.66
835
48.3
288.5%
168.3%
1.05%
59%
w/AQR
28.34
993
33.9
402.3%
179.6%
0.74%
59%
Stock Updates
Sector & asset classes rotate with economy;
constituents change automatically
Stock strategies require manual updates
According to SumGrowth,
Stocks of fast growing companies usually
continue to grow for at least a few years
Top Dog Stocks list includes several strategies
with BornOn dates over a year ago that continue
to do well
An annual review is more than sufficient
Stock Returns
Do not expect the exceptional returns shown; these
are based on ex post facto selection, and companies
generally can’t sustain exceptional performance
forever
Charles Schwab
on Social Security
$23,076/year @ 62
$31,092/year @ 66
$41,364/year @ 70
$18,288/year difference
between 62 & 70
“At what age will you
break even and begin to
come out ahead if you
delay Social Security?
The break-even age
depends on the amount
of your benefits and the
assumptions you use to
account for taxes and
the opportunity cost of
waiting (investment
return you could have
made, inflation, etc.).”
My Social Security
Analysis Assumptions
Take Social Security @ 62 ($23,076/year)
Reduce IRA distributions by $23,076/year @ 62
Calculate added amount still in IRA (plus interest) @ 70
Assume inflation & tax effects a wash
Up to 85% of Social Security taxed – I will probably be at max
Assume 25% tax rate
3.75% difference
$100,000 lifetime annuity at 70 pays $725/month ($8700/year)
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505146_162-51371076/7-best-annuities-toguarantee-income-for-life/
5% IRA Cumulative Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
Social Security Calculations
My IRA has $220,355.23 more in it at age 70 if I start Social
Security distributions at 62
Buying lifetime annuity with $220,355.23 at 70 yields
$19,171/year till end of life
Adding lifetime annuity to $23,076/year from taking Social
Security at 62 adds up to $42,247/year – vs. getting
$41,364/year from Social Security alone @ 70
Advantage after 70: $42,247 - $41,364 = $883/year
I ALWAYS have more – initially MUCH more – by starting
SS distributions at 62
Caveat: No lifetime annuity COLA
Liz Ann Sonders
Charles Schwab
http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/resource_center/expert_insight
Noreen Manor on Zillow
Zillow Madness?
1 Year Zestimate
Online Estimates
Zillow.com: $1,665,413 (low $1.58M, high $1.78M)
Eppraisal.com: $962,244 (low $817,907, high $1,106,580)
Realestate.com: $1,090,172
RedFin.com: $1.21M
SmartZip.com: $1.3M
Realtor.com: $1,288,400
Time for Real Estate?
Adapting Retirement
Plans to SectorSurfer
Cal Tech TIAA-CREF
Transamerica
Retirement Plans
Cal Tech – TIAA-CREF
Limited set of mutual funds
Able to transfer some funds into TIAA brokerage &
select ETFs
Transamerica
Limited mutual funds
Choose the Right Weapons
SectorSurfer Guidelines
for Fund Selection
1.
Exclude money market funds. StormGuard provides a much smarter
means for going to $CASH.
2.
Exclude most bond funds. Pimco Total Return and long-term
treasury bond funds are sometimes exceptions.
3.
Exclude Lifecycle funds, which are an asset class mix compromise
that never helps Strategy performance.
4.
Exclude REIT funds (real estate investment trust). Their commoditylike character reduces trend reliability.
5.
Exclude small-cap index funds. They are more generally too chaotic
and disruptive for 401k fund Strategies.
6.
Include every other remaining fund type, such as large cap, mid cap,
world regions, value, growth, etc.
7.
If there are still too many funds, exclude funds that sound
redundant or have a very short data history
Cal Tech Base Plan & TDA Plan
Equity Funds
Mutual Fund Name
American Funds New Perspective R6
Dodge & Cox International Stock
Dodge & Cox Stock Fund
Mathews Asia Growth Fund
Munder Veracity Small Cap Value Fund
Oppenheimer Global I
Prudential Jennison Growth Fund Z
Prudential Jennison Mid-Cap Growth Fund
TIAA-CREF Mid-Cap Value Fund Instl
TIAA-CREF Social Choice Equity Fund Instl
Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund Instl
Vanguard Institutional Index
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Instl
Wells Fargo Advantage Emerging Growth Fund Instl
CREF Stock
CREF Equity Index
CREF Global Equities
CREF Growth
* Not in SectorSurfer database
Symbol
RNPGX
DODFX
DODGX
MIAPX
MVSSX
OGLIX
PJFZX
PJGQX
TIMVX
TISCX
VIEIX
VINIX
VTSNX
WEMIX
*
*
*
*
Benchmark Index
MSCI ACWI NR USD
MSCI EAFE
S&P 500
MSCI All Country Asia Pacific
Russell 2000 Value TR USD
MSCI ACWI NR USD
Russell 1000 Growth TR USD
Russell Mid Cap Growth TR USD
Russell Mid Cap Value TR USD
Russell 3000*
S&P Completion
S&P 500
FTSE Global All Cap ex US
CREF Composite Benchmark
Russell 3000
MSCI World
Russell 1000 Growth
Morningstar Category
World Stock
Foreign Large Blend
Large Value
Diversified Pacific/Asia
Small Value
World Stock
Large Growth
Mid-Cap Growth
Mid-Cap Value
Large Blend
Mid-Cap Blend
Large Blend
Foreign Large Blend
Small Growth
Large Blend
Large Blend
World Stock
Large Growth
Investment Style
Large Growth
Large Blend
Large Blend
Large Growth
Small Blend
Large Growth
Large Growth
Mid Growth
Mid Blend
Large Blend
Mid Growth
Large Blend
Large Blend
Small Growth
Equity Funds with Proxies
Mutual Fund Name
Mathews Asia Growth Fund (MIAPX)
Munder Veracity Small Cap Value Fund (MVSSX)
CREF Stock
CREF Equity Index
CREF Growth
Symbol
RNPGX
DODFX
DODGX
MPACX
MVSSX
OGLIX
PJFZX
PJGQX
TIMVX
TISCX
VIEIX
VINIX
VTSNX
WEMIX
N/A
IWV
URTH
IWF
Benchmark Index
MSCI ACWI NR USD
World Stock
MSCI EAFE
Foreign Large Blend
S&P 500
Large Value
Small Value
MSCI ACWI NR USD
World Stock
Large Growth
Russell Mid Cap Growth TR USD Mid-Cap Growth
Russell Mid Cap Value TR USD Mid-Cap Value
Russell 3000*
Large Blend
S&P Completion
Mid-Cap Blend
S&P 500
Large Blend
Foreign Large Blend
Small Growth
Large Blend
Russell 3000
Large Blend
MSCI World
World Stock
Russell 1000 Growth
Large Growth
Style
Large Growth
Large Blend
Large Blend
Large Growth
Small Blend
Large Growth
Large Growth
Mid Growth
Mid Blend
Large Blend
Mid Growth
Large Blend
Large Blend
Small Growth
Equivalent Funds by Categories & Styles
RNPGS, OGLIX, URTH
TISCX, VINIX, IWF
DODFX, VTSNX
TISCX, IWV
MSCI ACWI NR USD
Russell 1000 TR USD
MSCI ACWI Ex USA NR USD
Russell 3000
Large Growth
Large Blend
Large Blend
Large Blend
World Stock
Large Blend
Large Blend
Large Blend
Large Blend
Remove Duplicates
Mutual Fund Name
CREF Stock
CREF Equity Index
CREF Growth
Symbol
RNPGX
DODFX
DODGX
MPACX
MVSSX
OGLIX
PJFZX
PJGQX
TIMVX
TISCX
VIEIX
VINIX
VTSNX
WEMIX
N/A
IWV
URTH
IWF
Benchmark Index
MSCI ACWI NR USD
World Stock
MSCI EAFE
Foreign Large Blend
S&P 500
Large Value
Small Value
MSCI ACWI NR USD
World Stock
Large Growth
Russell 3000*
Large Blend
S&P Completion
Mid-Cap Blend
S&P 500
Large Blend
Foreign Large Blend
Small Growth
Large Blend
Russell 3000
Large Blend
MSCI World
World Stock
Russell 1000 Growth
Large Growth
Style
Large Growth
Large Blend
Large Blend
Large Growth
Small Blend
Large Growth
Large Growth
Mid Growth
Mid Blend
Large Blend
Mid Growth
Large Blend
Large Blend
Small Growth
Equivalent Funds by Categories & Styles
RNPGS, OGLIX
DODFX, VTSNX
TISCX, IWV
MSCI ACWI NR USD
MSCI ACWI Ex USA NR USD
Russell 3000
Large Growth
Large Blend
Large Blend
World Stock
Large Blend
Large Blend
Large Blend
Duplicates Removed
Mutual Fund Name
CREF Equity Index
CREF Growth
Symbol
DODFX
DODGX
MPACX
MVSSX
OGLIX
PJFZX
PJGQX
TIMVX
VIEIX
VINIX
WEMIX
IWV
URTH
IWF
Benchmark Index
MSCI EAFE
Foreign Large Blend
S&P 500
Large Value
Small Value
MSCI ACWI NR USD
World Stock
Large Growth
S&P Completion
Mid-Cap Blend
S&P 500
Large Blend
Small Growth
Russell 3000
Large Blend
MSCI World
World Stock
Russell 1000 Growth
Large Growth
Style
Large Blend
Large Blend
Large Growth
Small Blend
Large Growth
Large Growth
Mid Growth
Mid Blend
Mid Growth
Large Blend
Small Growth
Large Blend
Fixed
Income
Add PRRIX
The Beaver 7
Cal Tech Rebalance 12
SumGrowth My 403b - Caltech JPL
Comparison
Portfolio
Chance
Sortino
SS
3 Year 10 Year of 15% Max
Safety
Ratio Score
Return Return loss in DD
1 year
Young 4 Equities (KISS)
11.21
90.8
109
25.5%
23.0%
0.07%
19%
Young 4 Equites w/AQR
10.74
95.1
62.9
24.6%
25.0%
0.02%
23%
CalTech Rebalance 12
2.70
29.4
0.0
12.1%
9.7%
20.1%
56%
My 403b – Caltech JPL
5.79
64.9
40.4
19.0%
15.8%
1.87%
36%
The Beaver 7
9.19
80.5
143
25.1%
20.6%
0.29%
19%
Beaver 7 w/AQR
9.77
84.9
131
27.7%
22.3%
0.57%
19%
SumGrowth calculations on April 22, 24 & 26 and June 23, 24 & 25, 2014
*Less than 10 years data
The Beaver 7 Funds
Fund Name
CREF Equity Index
Oppenheimer Global Fund
PIMCO Real Return Fund
Symbol
DODFX
PJGQX
IWV
VINIX
WEMIX
OGLIX
PRRIX
Benchmark Index
MSCI EAFE
Russell Mid Cap Growth TR USD
Russell 3000
S&P 500
None (US & foreign)
None ((bonds)
Proxy in yellow
Foreign Large Blend
Mid-Cap Growth
Mid-Cap Value
Large Blend
Small Growth
World Stock
Inflation-Protected Bond
Investment Style
Large Blend
Mid Growth
Mid Blend
Large Blend
Small Growth
Large Growth
Transamerica
Retirement Plan Funds
Transamerica Name
Transamerica Stable Value Account
PIMCO Total Return Account
SSgA U.S. Bond Index Retirement Account
RidgeWorth Large Cap Value Equity Retirement Account
Transamerica Partners Stock Index Retirement Account
Morgan Stanley Growth Retirement Account
American Century Mid Cap Value Retirement Account
SSgA S&P Mid Cap Index Retirement Fund
Goldman Sachs Mid-Cap Opportunities Retirement Account
Franklin Small Cap Value Retirement Account
SSgA Russell Small Cap Index Retirement Account
Janus Triton Retirment Account
Vanguard REIT Index Retirment Account
American Funds New Perspective Retirement Account
Invesco International Growth Retirment Account
SSgA International Index Retirment Account
Thornburg International Value Retirment Account
Morningstar Name
Symbol
Stars Category
Style
Expenses
PIMCO Total Return
PTTPX
3
Intermediate-Term Bond
RidgeWorth Large Cap Value Equity Fund
Transamerica Partners Stock Index
Morgan Stanley Inst Growth A
American Century Mid Cap Value Inv
SVIIX
DSKIX
MSEGX
ACMVX
3
3
3
3
Large Value
Large Blend
Large Growth
Mid Cap Value
Large Blend
Large Growth
Mid Value
1.19%
0.65%
0.95%
1.00%
Goldman Sachs Mid Cap Value B
Franklin Small Cap Value R
GCMBX
FVFRX
3
3
Mid Cap Value
Small Value
Mid Blend
Small Value
1.89%
1.39%
Janus Triton T
Vanguard REIT Index I
American Funds New Perspective C
Invesco International Growth Y
JATTX
VGSNX
NPFCX
AIIYX
5
4
4
4
Small Growth
Real Estate
World Stock
Foreign Large Growth
Mid Growth
Mid Blend
Large Growth
Large Growth
0.92%
0.08%
1.59%
1.08%
Thornburg International Value I
TGVIX
3
Large Growth
0.86%
Duplicates
Transamerica Name
RIMCO Total Return Account
RidgeWorth Large Cap Value Equity Retirement Account
Transamerica Partners Stock Index Retirement Account
American Century Mid Cap Value Retirement Account
Goldman Sachs Mid-Cap Opportunities Retirement Account
Franklin Small Cap Value Retirement Account
American Funds New Perspective Retirement Account
Invesco International Growth Retirment Account
Thornburg International Value Retirment Account
Morningstar Name
PIMCO Total Return
RidgeWorth Large Cap Value Equity Fund
Transamerica Partners Stock Index
American Century Mid Cap Value Inv
Goldman Sachs Mid Cap Value B
Franklin Small Cap Value R
Janus Triton T
Invesco International Growth Y
Thornburg International Value I
Symbol
PTTPX
SVIIX
DSKIX
MSEGX
ACMVX
GCMBX
FVFRX
JATTX
VGSNX
NPFCX
AIIYX
TGVIX
Stars
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
5
4
4
4
3
Category
Large Value
Large Blend
Large Growth
Mid Cap Value
Mid Cap Value
Small Value
Small Growth
Real Estate
World Stock
Style
Large Blend
Large Growth
Mid Value
Mid Blend
Small Value
Mid Growth
Mid Blend
Large Growth
Large Growth
Large Growth
Expenses
1.19%
0.65%
0.95%
1.00%
1.89%
1.39%
0.92%
0.08%
1.59%
1.08%
0.86%
Large Cap Funds
Large Cap Funds
Pick MSEGX
Duplicates Removed
Transamerica Name
Morningstar Name
PIMCO Total Return Account
PIMCO Total Return
American Century Mid Cap Value Retirement Account American Century Mid Cap Value Inv
Janus Triton T
American Funds New Perspective Retirement
Account
Symbol
PTTPX
MSEGX
ACMVX
JATTX
VGSNX
Stars
3
3
3
5
4
NPFCX
4
Category
Large Growth
Mid Cap Value
Small Growth
Real Estate
Style
Expenses
Large Growth
Mid Value
Mid Growth
Mid Blend
0.95%
1.00%
0.92%
0.08%
World Stock
Large Growth
1.59%
Rebalance Equal Weight
Full Rotation
Remove JATTX
Remove Bonds
Remove Foreign
The Transamerica 2
Transamerica Comparison
Portfolio
Chance
Sortino
SS
Safety
Ratio Score
1 year
Rebalance Equal Weight
1.66
20.2
0.0
13.4%
11.0%
33.9%
56%
Full
5.20
53.4
5.8
17.0%
17.3%
3.87%
26%
Remove JATTX
6.48
61.3
24.1
19.1%
20.0%
2.90%
26%
Remove JATTX & PTTPX
6.73
62.6
24.4
19.1%
20.7%
2.90%
26%
VGSNX, MSEGX & ACMVX
6.92
71.9
53.2
20.7%
20.8%
1.57%
19%
The Transamerica 2
7.47
78.1
62.9
22.2%
21.9%
1.21%
19%
Transamerica 2 w/AQR
5.75
67.4
7.3
23.4%
18.7%
4.45%
23%
Portfolios Summary
Portfolio
Chance
Sortino
SS
Safety
Ratio Score
1 year
S&P 500
1.86
24.7
0.0
14.4%
7.3%
25.6%
55%
Young 4 Equities
11.20
90.2
109
25.0%
23.0%*
0.07%
19%
Young 3 Bonds
15.85
69.4
218
19.7%
18.0%*
0.07%
9%
Young 50/50 Rebalance
10.70
76.9
89.5
22.2%
19.1%
0.04%
19%
Celeste
23.14
436
460
111.5%
74.2%
0.13%
57%
Yale U Rebalance
3.46
32.0
0.2
10.1%
8.7%
7.53%
42%
Cal Tech Rebalance
2.70
29.4
0
12.1%
9.7%
20.1%
56%
Beaver 7
9.21
80.9
143
25.4%
20.6%
0.29%
19%
The Transamerica 2
7.47
78.1
62.9
22.2%
21.9%
1.21%
19%
SumGrowth calculations on April 22, 24 & 26 and June 23-27, 2014
*Less than 10 years data

Beaver Portfolio - AAII. LOS ANGELES

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