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20160528_OIPE_French Polynesia_FINAL
UNCLASSIFIED MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA Operational Intelligence Preparation of the Environment (OIPE) Brief French Polynesia UNCLASSIFIED Overview: Map and National Symbols DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA UNDERSTAND THE THREAT UNCLASSIFIED Overview: Position within the region DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA UNDERSTAND THE THREAT MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA UNCLASSIFIED Geography: Population Distribution General : 118 islands and atolls (67 inhabited) Total area : 4,167km2 Land area : 3,827km2 Water : 340km2 Population Total: Urban population: Population growth rate: Sex ratio: Age Structure: 0-14 years: 15-24 years: 25-54 years: 55-64 years: 65 years+: 282,703 (July 2015 est.) 51.6% (World Bank, 2009) 0.94% (2015 est.) 1.05 m/f (2015 est.) (2015 est.) 23.31% 16.36% 44.1% 8.83% 7.4% Tuamotu Islands - 78 atolls (41 inhabited) Austral Islands/ Gambier Marquesas Islands - 9 islands (6 inhabited) Society Islands DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS UNDERSTAND THE THREAT UNCLASSIFIED Terrain: Geologic and Topographical MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA Marquesas Islands - Inactive hotspot chain aged 1.2 Ma (Fatu Hiva) to 6 Ma (Eiao), but lack coral reefs (DUNCAN and MCDOUGALL, 1974; BROUSSE et al., 1990; DESONIE et al., 1993); Tuamotu Islands - Maximum altitude of 3 masl - Rising from a continuous plateau whose age, ranging from Late Cretaceous to Eocene, remains poorly constrained (SCHLANGER et al., 1984). Society Islands - Eroded remnants of Hawaiian-type shield volcanoes, presently fringed by coral reefs; their ages range from 0.5 Ma for the eastern edifice of Tahiti-Iti to 4.6 Ma for Maupiti (DUNCAN and MCDOUGALL, 1976; UTO et al., 2007). Austral Islands/ Gambier - To the south, the Austral Islands share those structural properties [equivalent to the Society Islands] despite more erratic ages (TURNER and JARRARD, 1982; CHAUVEL et al., 1997). Map Source: http://www.meteo.pf/climat.php?lien=pf DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS UNDERSTAND THE THREAT UNCLASSIFIED Demography: Population by administrative district MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA MARQUESAS LEEWARD ISLANDS Commune Popn (2012) Commune Popn (2012) Uturoa 3697 Tahuata 703 Bora Bora 9610 Fatu-Hiva 611 6313 Hiva-Oa 2190 1234 Nuku-Hiva 2966 5220 Ua Huka 621 4786 Ua Pou 2173 3762 TOTAL Huahine Maupiti Tahaa Taputapuatea Tumaraa TOTAL TUAMOTO-GAMBIER WINDWARD ISLANDS Commune Popn (2012) Commune Popn (2012) Rangiroa 352 Papeete 25769 Anaa 897 9537 Arutua 1500 29687 Fakarava 1579 Hitiaa O Te Ra 9585 Fangatau 300 Mahina 14351 Gambier 1421 Moorea-Maiao 17236 Hao 1328 Paea 12541 Hikueru 240 Punaauia 27613 Makemo 1558 Taiarapu West 7639 Manihi 1240 Taiarapu East 12253 Napuka 1558 Teva I Uta 9398 Nukutavake 1240 Pukapuka 359 Reao 606 Takaroa 1243 Tatakoto 294 Tureia 3000 Arue Faa’a TOTAL AUSTRALES Commune Tubuai Raivavae Popn (2012) 2173 947 Rapa 515 Rimatara 879 Rurutu 2325 TOTAL L. Claudel (Sardon fr:Sardon) — Own work. Data sources : Background map : ETOPO1 du National Geophysical Data Center (public domain) Coastline : NASA Shuttle Radar Topography TOTAL DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS UNDERSTAND THE THREAT MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA UNCLASSIFIED Climate: Trends by Zone Marquesan climate - Wet tropical (bordering on arid in the north). - Less marked seasonal temperature variation. - Hot and humid season from January to August - Cool season from September to December. - Generally subject to the trade winds. - Characterised by moderate rainfall, warm temperatures and plenty of sunshine. Tuamotu climate - Moist tropical with distinct seasons . - Rainy season from Nov to Apr, Dec and Jan the wettest months. - Characterised by moderate rainfall, low temperature variations, good sunshine. - Exposed to wind due to lack of terrain relief. La Societe climate - Tropical humid with marked seasonal variation. - Heavy rainfall (from N/NW weather systems) in the hot season from Nov to Apr - Dec and Jan are the wettest months - Low rainfall in the cool season. - Coasts exposed to trade winds, hills receive most of the rain. - Warm temperatures (Faa’a annual average 26°C). Austral climate (most adverse in French Polynesia) - Temperate climate during the cool season. - Tropical climate during the hot season. - Winds more sustained variable than elsewhere. - Highest waves observed, outside cyclone swells. - Characterized by fairly widespread rains throughout the year, high relative humidity and average temperatures below 25°C. Source: http://www.meteo.pf/climat.php?lien=pf DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT Gambier climate (similar to Austral) - Tropical but relatively cool. - Rainfall is relatively constant over the year. - Temperatures are quite cool, exposure is relatively low. UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS Climate change impact: More frequent occurrences of extreme weather and climaterelated events: - Cyclones (Orama, Reva, and Veena in 1983, Wasa in 1991, Martin in 1997, and Oli in 2010), - 7 climate-related episodes of coral bleaching since 1980 - 2 outbreaks of crown of thorns starfish that prey on coral. Source: Walker, Carr and Currier 2014, Perceptions of environmental change in Moorea, French Polynesia UNDERSTAND THE THREAT MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA UNCLASSIFIED Terrain: Marine Protected Areas and EEZ Situation: French Polynesia's president has rejected a proposal by community leaders from the Austral islands to create the world's largest fully protected marine reserve. The reason given was that Marquesas and Tuamotus may follow suit causing damage to the fishing industry. (RadioNZ, 13 Apr 2016, Link) DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS Maritime claim : Territorial sea : 12nm EEZ: 200nm UNDERSTAND THE THREAT MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA UNCLASSIFIED Weather: Papeete, Tahiti Historical Averages Last 12 months Predator UAV – Cross wind limit (15 kts) Source: www.weatherspark.com DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS UNDERSTAND THE THREAT MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA UNCLASSIFIED Political: Foreign Relations Regional Association Status Pacific Islands Forum: Associate member since 2006 (as at 26 May 2016 under final consideration for full membership) Membership: - Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC), - South Pacific Regional Environmental Programme (SPREP), - Pacific Islands Development Programme (PIDP), - South Pacific Tourism Organisation (SPTO). Diplomatic Relationships: RUSSIA: President met with Russia’s Ambassador to France 24 May 2016 “to explore economic and cultural cooperation” FRANCE: Supports President Fritch in opposing French Polynesia’s inclusion on the UN decolonisation list, and refusing to conduct a referendum on independence. NEW ZEALAND: AUSTRALIA: CHINA: DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS UNDERSTAND THE THREAT MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA UNCLASSIFIED Political: Institutions and Issues Political Parties Institutions High Commissioner of the Republic Lionel BEFFRE EXECUTIVE President of Polynesia Government of Polynesia (Council of Ministers) 10 members, chosen by President Can make appointments to public entities Assembly of Polynesia 57 Members on 5 year terms Annual budget vote LEGISLATIVE Economic, Social and Cultural Council 51 members in 3 colleges: employees, contractors and associations. 4 year terms Must be consulted on economic/social laws Court of Appeal JUDICIARY Court of First Instance Court of Administrative Law Last national elections: 2014 DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS UNDERSTAND THE THREAT MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA UNCLASSIFIED Political: National Leadership (Cabinet) Name Portfolios Mr. Edouard FRITCH President of French Polynesia, Gender Issues, Community Partnerships, Post and Telecommunications, Foreign and Internal Affairs, Development of Agricultural and Handicraft Photo Mr. Nuihau LAUREY Vice President, Budget, Finance and Energy Jean-Christophe BOUISSOU Tourism and International Air Transport, Modernisation of the Administration and the Civil Service, Government Spokesman (Speaker?) Teva M ROHFRITSCH Economic Recovery, Blue (Maritime?) Economy, Digital Policy, Investment Promotion, Responsible for Relations with APF and CESC (MEI) Ms. Priscilla Tea FROGIER Labour, Solidarity and Women (MTS). Mr. Tearii ALPHA Housing, Urban Renewal, Urban Policy, Land Affairs and Doman (MLV) Nicole FAREATA SANQUER Education and Higher Education, Youth and Sports (MEE) Mr Albert SOLIA Infrastructure, Spatial and Urban Planning and Inland Transport (MET) Patrick HOWELL Health and Research Notes Has formed own party, launched in Feb 2016. Mr. Heremoana MAAMAATUAIAHUTAPU Promotion of Language, Culture, Communication and Environment (MCE) Source: “Le gouvernement de la Polynésie francaise,” http://www.presidence.pf/index.php/extensions DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS UNDERSTAND THE THREAT MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA UNCLASSIFIED Political: Local Leadership LEEWARD ISLANDS Commune Mayor Bora Bora M. Gaston TONG SANG Huahine M. Marcelin LISAN Maupiti Tahaa Photo Notes WINDWARD ISLANDS Commune Mayor Papeete M. Michel BUILLARD Arue Phillip SCHYLE Honorary director of Tetiaroa Society (Sustainability project inspired by Marlon Brando) Faa’a Oscar TEMARU Leader of the pro-independence opposition, former President of French Polynesia (2011-2013, 2009, 2007-2008, 2005-2006, 2004) Hitiaa O Te Ra M. Dauphin DOMINGO Mahina M. Damas TEUIRA Moorea-Maiao M. Evans HAUMANI Paea M. Jacquie GRAFFE Punaauia M. Ronald TUMAHAI Taiarapu West M.Wilfred TAVAEARII Taiarapu East M. Anthony JAMET Teva I Uta M. Tearii ALPHA M. Woullingson RAUFAUORE Mme. Céline TEMATARU Taputapuatea M. Thomas MOUTAME Tumaraa M. Cyril TETUANUI Uturoa Mme. Sylviane TEROOATEA Photo Notes Source: Syndicat Pour La Promotion des Communes de Polynesie Francaise, http://www.spc.pf/liste-communes DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS UNDERSTAND THE THREAT MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA UNCLASSIFIED Political: Local Leadership TUAMOTO-GAMBIER Commune Mayor Commune Mayor Rangiroa M. Teina MARAEURA Photo Manihi Mme. Mireille HAOATAI Anaa M. Calixte YIP Napuka Mme. Taki MAUTAINA Arutua M. Reupena Samuel TAPUTUARAI Nukutavake Mme. Philoméne TOKORAGI Fakarava M. Tuhoe TEKURIO Pukapuka M. Raphael VILLANT Fangatau Mme. Mareta MAPU Reao Mme. MarieThérese LY Gambier M. Vai Vianello GOODING Takaroa Mme. Teapehu TEAHE Hao M. Théodore TUAHINE Tatakoto M. Ernest Igino TEAGAI Hikueru M. Raymond TEKURIO Tureia Mme. Tevahineheipua BRANDER Makemo M. Félix TOKORAGI DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT Notes Photo Notes Source: Syndicat Pour La Promotion des Communes de Polynesie Francaise, http://www.spc.pf/liste-communes UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS UNDERSTAND THE THREAT MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA UNCLASSIFIED Political: Local Leadership MARQUESAS Photo AUSTRALES Commune Mayor Commune Mayor Tahuata M. Felix BARSINAS Notes Tubuai M. Fernand TAHIATA Fatu-Hiva M. Henri TUIENUI Raivavae M. Joachim TEVAATUA Hiva-Oa M. Etienne TEHAAMOANA Rapa M. Tuanainai NARII Nuku-Hiva M. Benoit KAUTAI Rimatara M. George HATITIO Ua Huka M. Nestor OHU Rurutu M. Frédéric RIVETA Ua Pou M. Joseph KAIHA Photo Notes Source: Syndicat Pour La Promotion des Communes de Polynesie Francaise, http://www.spc.pf/liste-communes DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS UNDERSTAND THE THREAT UNCLASSIFIED Military: Forces armées en Polynésie française – FAPF MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA Military Defense is the responsibility of France. Armed Force in French Polynesia (Forces armées en Polynésie française – FAPF) : • Approximately 1,000 active duty officers and men • Branches : Army : RIMaP-P (Régiment d’infanterie marine du Pacifique - Polynésie) – approximately 170 men. Navy : 5 ships (Frigate Prairial, Patrol ship Arago, B2M Bougainville, and 2 tug boats, Maroa and Manini) and 2 aircrafts flottillas (Falcon Gardian and helicopters Dauphins). Airforce : DA190 (Détachement aérien 190 ; Casa CN 35 squadron) DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS UNDERSTAND THE THREAT UNCLASSIFIED Security: Emergency Services MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA Fire Staff: 253 permanent staff and 352 volunteers. Activity: 26,500 responses in 2015 (3% firefighting) Future intentions: Consolidate recruitment Implement new emergency centers in some islands, Encourage the creation of youth sections in Arue, Mahina and Pirae. Source: Link Police: Three types: the French Gendarmerie, the French National Police in Paeete, and numerous municipal police departments. Event: 19-22 Sep 2016 - Pacific Islands Chiefs of Police Conference Police claim to solve 50% of burglaries (RadioNZ, 21 Nov 2011, Link) Corrections: Situation: Courts have ordered French Polynesian Corrections pay US$450,000 to inmates of Nuutania prison due to por conditions due to overcrowding (RadioNZ, 12 Oct 2015, Link) National Director: Official capacity: Prison population: % remand prisoners: % female prisoners: Prisons: Yannick Massard 190 456 (01 Jan 2016) 21.4% (Mar 2012) 2.9% (01 Jan 2016) Faa’a Nuutania, Taiohae-Marquises and Uturoa-Raiatea Source: World Prison Brief, Institute for Criminal Policy Research, Link DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS UNDERSTAND THE THREAT MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA UNCLASSIFIED Security: Emergency Services Key Emergency Services Locations in French Polynesia Legend Prison DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS UNDERSTAND THE THREAT UNCLASSIFIED Economic: Trade MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA Balance of Trade: Negative merchandise trade balance, positive service trade balance. Sector Contribution to Total Export Value Agriculture and Forestry 22% (2013) Aquaculture and Fisheries 78% (2013) Tourism: DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS UNDERSTAND THE THREAT UNCLASSIFIED Economic: Current Issues and Remittances MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA Situation: Air Tahiti flights have been cut for the last two weeks due to a strike that has now broadened to related businesses (SOMSTAT, Air Archipels, Newrest Polynesie) throughout the archipelago. Triggered over possible job losses in response to a sharp drop in domestic air travel. (RadioNZ, 26 May 2016, Link) Proportion of GDP: Equivalent to ~10% of GDP. Source: World Bank Factsheet French Polynesia. Business Hours Generally 8am to 12pm and 1.30pm to 5.30pm Monday to Friday. (wordtravels.com) Deprivation Poverty Rate: Unemployment: Youth: 19.7% (ISPF, 2009) 56.7% (NMDI) DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS UNDERSTAND THE THREAT UNCLASSIFIED Social: Ethnicity and Migration Ethnic Breakdown: - Polynesian: 78% - Chinese: 12% - Local French: 6% - Metropolitan French: 4% MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA Migration Trends: Source: UNICEF Migration Profile, French Polynesia, Link. DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS UNDERSTAND THE THREAT UNCLASSIFIED Social: Religion Religious Breakdown - Protestant - Roman Catholic - Other (Mormon, 7th Day Adventist, Sanito) - No religion MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA 54% 30% 10% 6% Religious Authorities Maohi Protestant Church Claims a membership of 130,000, 77 pastors over 96 congregations (2006) Official language in Tahitian, but 1 Francophone and Chinese congregation Largest church in French Polynesia, with substantial youth movements (“Temaram”) Protestant missions present in the area since before French colonization. Church has been at the forefront of the anti-nuclear struggle. Member of the World Council of Churches, Pacific Conference of Churches, Catholic Church Claims a membership of 104,000, 26 pastors over 57 parishes (2013) Locations: Arue, Mahina, Nuku Hiva, Papeete, Pirae, Punaauia, Puurai, Raiatea, Taravao, Toahotu Teahupoo, Bishops: Pascal HQ: Cathédrale Notre-Dame de l’Immaculée Conception, Papeete Mormon Church Membership of 25,841, 90 congregations, 1 temple - Papeete Tahiti Temple Has promoted a Pacific Area Facebook site with local youth (current reach ~15,000). Assembly of God Churches Locations: Papeete; La Bonne Nouvelle, Faa’a; Taravao; Tiarei; Paopao, Moorea; Faré, Huahine; Uturoa, Raiatea; Faanue, Bora Bora. Key Dates: March 5, Missionaries’ Day (arrival of London Missionary Society in 1797) DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS UNDERSTAND THE THREAT UNCLASSIFIED Social: Crime, Education and Health MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA Education: Health: Domestic violence: (Women leading change, 2011) - 17% of women reported cases of physical violence - 7% reported cases of sexual violence by their partner in the 12 months preceding the survey. - 36% reported having endured psychological pressures - 21% reported verbal attacks from their partner. Crime: In Moorea and Papeete, with the downturn in the islands hotel trade it is thought there has been an upturn in non-violent crime, confirmed by the Gendarmerie (Noonsite.com, Nov 2015) In Raiatea at the Uturoa town centre public dock, there continues to be incidents of thefts from boats (both unlocked and locked). It is recommended not to overnight on this dock. (Noonsite.com, Nov 2015). DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS UNDERSTAND THE THREAT MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA UNCLASSIFIED Infrastructure: Transport APODs and SPODs in French Polynesia Specifications masl Airport Airport Paved (m) Ahe P 1240 3 Puka Puka Anaa A 1494 6 Pukarua Apataki P 884 4 AratakiNord 1280 10 AratakiPerles 762 Arutua 1311 4 Bora Bora Faaite A /C P Fakahina Fakarava Fangatau Hao 7 1494 4 /914 1189 2 1400 4 P P A 1400 4 1200 3 3353 5 Paved (m) 13 1189 4 Raiatea 1402 1.83 Raivavae 1402 5 P Rangiroa P 2100 2 Raroia B 1189 5 Reao P 1189 4 Rurutu A 1450 3 Tahiti (Faa’a) A 3420 2 Takapoto 1189 5.18 Takume 914 4 1200 3 762 3 Rimatara Tatakoto P Tetiaroa Tikehau P 1200 2 Totegegie A 2000 2 Tubuai A 1500 5 1500 Tureia P 1050 4 Katiu 1189 4 Ua Huka P 755 49 Kauehi 1189 5 Ua Pou P 853 53 Vahitahi P 830 5 Hikueru B 1200 5 Hiva Oa (Atuona) P 1585 463 Huahine A Kaukura P 1080 3 Makemo P 1400 5 Manihi A 930 4 Maupiti A 956 5 Moorea A 1237 5 Napuka B 900 Mataiva Legend A – Asphalt B – Bitumen C – Coral P – Paved U – Unknown DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT 5 Niau 1189 6 Nuku Hiva 1707 70 Nukutavake P 1030 5 Seaport Heliport UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS masl 945 UNDERSTAND THE THREAT UNCLASSIFIED Infrastructure: Roads and Utilities (including health) Roadways: - Paved: - Unpaved: 2,590 km 1,735 km 855 km Access to services Population with access to improved drinking water Population with access to improved sanitation 100.0% (2012) 96.3% (2012) MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA UNCLASSIFIED Infrastructure: Key APODs - MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA 24 international flights per week (2013) 145 domestic flights from Faa’a per week (2013) 3420x45 m, paved, lighted runway Bora Bora Heliport DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS UNDERSTAND THE THREAT UNCLASSIFIED Infrastructure: Key SPODs Specifications: Port of Papeete 33 shipping operators (2013) Situation: Faratea Port The ~25 hectare area was originally scoped for a commercial port in 2003, then a deep sea fishing hub in 2006, then as a marina in 2009. As of 21 Apr 2015 The community presently favoured the fishing hub plan (Link) MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA UNCLASSIFIED Information: Media, Communication Access, Languages Newspapers: La Depeche de Tahiti (daily) Les Nouvelles de Tahiti (daily) Tahiti Pacifique (monthly) Television: Polynesie 1 – public, operated by France’s Reseau Outre-Mer (2 channels) Tahiti Nui TV – government operated International satellite broadcasts available Radio: Polynesie 1 – public, operated by France Reseau Outre-Mer Tiare FM – private Star FM – private Radio 1 (Ma’ohi?) – private Christian Radio Te Vevo – private Radio Ma’ohi Access to communications: Household access to land lines: 51.2% (2013) Household access to mobile phones: 90% (2013) Household internet access: 42.7% (2013) Individual access to internet: 56.8% (2010) 100% of schools and health facilities have internet access (2013) Languages : - French (official) - Polynesian (official) - Asian languages - Other - Unspecified Distribution of French Polynesian Languages 8,700 speakers (2007) 2700 speakers (2011) 63,000 speakers (2011) 4,000 speakers (2007) 3,000 speakers (2007) 600 speakers (2011) 300 speakers (2007) Postal System: There are excellent postal services throughout the islands. At its 54 island branches the post office (OPT) provides a wide range of services besides stamps: phone cards, parcel post, placing collect calls, international calling cards (ATT, France Telecom), sending & receiving money orders (Noonsite, Nov, 2015) DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT 61.1% 31.4% 1.2% 0.3% 6% Source: Linguistic Atlas of French Polynesia UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS UNDERSTAND THE THREAT MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA UNCLASSIFIED Information: Radio Stations and Cellular Network Radio Stations in French Polynesia Cellular Nework Coverage: (Vini, 2013) 2G coverage on 62 islands (92% of popn) 3G coverage on 5 Society Islands 230,000 cell phone users 8540 mobile internet users Vini GSM Coverage Map DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS UNDERSTAND THE THREAT UNCLASSIFIED Physical/Time: Distances and Zones MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA Physical: Distance from Papeete to : Jakarta, IDN 11,245 km Tokyo, JPN 9,480 km Melbourne, AUS 6,699 km Washington DC, USA 9,783 km Paris, FRA 15,715 km Auckland, NZ 4,093 km Time: - UTC – 10 - Paris, FRA – 11 - Washington DC, USA - 5 DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS UNDERSTAND THE THREAT UNCLASSIFIED Cyclones: Historical Case Studies and Impacts MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA Impact on communications: The quality of the mobile network may be degraded for many reasons: - In case of a power cut of more than 1:30, the BTS radio stations in the fault zone would no longer be fed and therefore cease to function; - In case of strong winds, the radio antennas on the top of the pylons may be degraded; - In case of heavy rains and cyclonic swell, underground facilities risk being flooded. TC Oli, (4 February 2010). One death, 11 injured, 3,400 evacuated and 600 homes destroyed were reported. Brought almost all tourism to a halt for several days. The 7 m high waves and 210 km/h wind gusts, along with a concomitant outbreak of coraleating starfish, destroyed much of Moorea’s outer coral reef, a major attraction for French Polynesia’s tourists Source: Walker, Carr and Currier, Perceptions of environmental change in Moorea, French Polynesia, 2014. Vulnerability: Atolls in the Tuamotu Islands offer no natural evacuation shelters. They have historically suffered considerable damage and high death tolls during cyclones, most recently in 1982-1983. (Reymond et al, 2013). DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS UNDERSTAND THE THREAT UNCLASSIFIED Tsunami: Historical Case Studies 12 Jul 1848 Tahiti Earthquake - 6.5 Earthquake followed by strong tsunami - (NOAA, NCEI ref. #415) 1946 Aleutian Tsunami - Up to 20m run-up - 2 deaths 22 May 1960 Valdivia Tsunami - Run-up of 4m at Tahiti and Austral islands - No deaths 30 Jul 1995 Antofagasta Tsunami - Local resonance in unprotected ports led to structural damage of boats and harbours in Marquesas Islands. 13 Sep 1999 Fatu Hiva Tsunami - Local tsunami, 2 waves hit the village of Omoa. - Serious damage to coastal structures, in particular to the local elementary school. - Generated by the collapse of a basaltic cliff, 3 km SE of Omoa. - Landslide volume 2-5 million m3 (est.); 60% fell into sea. - Run up: 4m-8m - (NOAA, NCEI ref. #3395) DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA 27 Feb 2010 Maule Tsunami: 11 Mar 2011 Tohoku Tsunami: Response timeline: Earthquake 2034hs LDG alarm 2047hs Scientist responded 2100hs Civil Defence contacted 2133hs Emergency RU activated 2230hs LDG issued “red alert” 2325hs Sirens sounded (147) 0400hs Waves reached Marquesas 0700hs All clear sounded 0914hs Evacuation successful and orderly, no injuries reported Response timeline: Earthquake 1946hs LDG alarm 1958hs Scientist responded 2015hs Civil Defence contacted 2133hs LDG issued “red alert” 0100hs Evacuation ordered 04300hs Waves reached Marquesas 0744hs Evacuation successful, media coverage boosted public awareness (a tsunami drill had taken place a few days before the 2011 tsunami in several townships of the island of Tahiti) Effects: - Disruption of Faa’a airport (2masl) - Substantial inundation only in the Marquesas Islands - Run up did not meet the roads (3.8m +/0.05m) - No substantial damage reported - One boat sunk in Tahauku Harbour (after owner refused to take it out of the harbour) - Eddy caused structural damage to the end of the Tahauku jetty. - Eddies filled Ua Pou harbour with mud causing its closure to large vessels. - 7h after the arrival of the initial waves, the supply ship Ara Nui was flung onto the wharf (~1m above sea level) at Puamau Bay (Hiva Oa Island). UNDERSTAND THE THREAT Effects - Flight at Faa’a airport delayed 4 hours - Run-up of 3.0-3.2m, max of 4.45m - 820m inundation in the bay of Taipivai - Severe damage to a hangar used to dry coprah and shelter outrigger canoes. - Seven houses flooded. - Run-up reached the Papenoo straightaway on the Tahiti coastal ring road (brought debris and minor flooding) Source: Reymond, D; Hyvernaud, O and Okal, E.A. (2013) “The 2010 and 2011 Tsunamis in French Polynesia: Operational Aspects and Field Surveys.” Pure and Applied Geophysics 170: 1169-1187 UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS UNCLASSIFIED Tsunami: Impacts MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA Typical Impacts: (Reymond et al, 2013, p. 1169-1170) Tuamoto atolls: Their steep slopes and small sizes (relative to trans oceanic tsunami wavelengths) result in minimal amplification upon shoaling, and those atolls have suffered only moderately from the great transpacific tsunamis, e.g., in 1946 and 1960. Tahiti and Austral Islands: As fringed high islands they are generally protected by their coral reefs, with limited amplification of tsunami waves upon shoals. Marquesas Islands: Lend themselves to extreme amplification of tsunami waves, especially in the deeply eroded valleys and bays hosting most population centres. Impact on communications Experience has shown that as soon as a disaster is announced, the telephone network is immediately saturated. In addition, Papeete's "Postal and Telecommunications Service" is located on the shoreline: it would be put out of service and the area's telephone communications would be interrupted - by 1.5 metre or higher waves. Source: Report n° 117 (2007-2008) by M. Roland COURTEAU, Senator (for the parliament office for the evaluation of scientific and technological choices) - Appendix to the minutes of the 7 December 2007 session. DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERSTAND THE THREAT UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS UNCLASSIFIED Tsunami: Warning National Warning Mechanism: - Warning center at the Laboratoire de Geophysique (LDG) contains an automated algorithm to summon a scientist on call (Lab not manned 24/7). - 144 sirens can be activated by High State Authority or local authorities using INMARSAT. - Local authorities have portable INMARSAT phones to communities with the High State Authority. - TV message also broadcast on Polynesie 1. - Information brochure “Tsunami warnings in French Polynesia” published in 2007. MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA Warning Levels Centre Polynésien de Prévention des Tsunamis Postal Address: BP 640 Papeete Tahiti Polynésie Française E-mail Address: cppt@labogeo.pf Emergency Tel. Number: (689) 82 80 25 Emergency Fax Number: (689) 83 50 37 YELLOW ORANGE RED Source: Report n° 117 (2007-2008) by M. Roland COURTEAU, Senator (for the parliament office for the evaluation of scientific and technological choices) - Appendix to the minutes of the 7 December 2007 session. DEFINE THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERSTAND THE THREAT UNDERSTAND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS UNCLASSIFIED OIPE Brief MPAT Tempest Express Climate-Induced Migration Scenario OIPE: FRENCH POLYNESIA Fall 2016 Sea Flood and Cyclone French Polynesia Among the 118 atolls of French Polynesia, 78 are located in the Tuamotu Archipelago. Those atolls are just a few meters above the sea level. The water has begun to rise slowly two weeks ago and threaten to swallow the atolls. Inhabitants have fled the archipelago and are headed west and north to the mountainous islands, to the Society islands and to the Marquises. However, the strong El Nino phenomenon this year has been the source of hard rains and tropical storms, devastating the valleys of Tahiti and some other islands.
