papanikolaou_review-of-marine-accidents

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Safety and Energy Efficient Operations
17th November 2015
University of Strathclyde, Glasgow
REVIEW OF MAJOR MARINE ACCIDENTS
THE EVOLUTION OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DAMAGE STABILITY REGULATIONS
Professor Apostolos Papanikolaou
National Technical University of Athens - NTUA
Ship Design Laboratory – SDL
Email: papa@deslab.ntua/gr
http://www.naval.ntua.gr/sdl
The problem and the challenges
Comparative max. data
Titanic capacity (max):
pass 2435, crew 892
total 3,327
Allure of the Seas
capacity (max):
Pass 6,296, crew 2,394
total 8,690
Nov-15
Review of major marine accidents and evolution of the international damage stability regulations ,
Prof. Apostolos Papanikolaou, NTUA-SDL
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List of Contents
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Nov-15
Major marine accidents with emphasis on passenger ships
IMO regulatory developments on damage stability of passenger
ships (and dry cargo ships…)
– SOLAS 90….Res. 14, Stockholm Agreement (SOLAS 95) :
after the Estonia disaster for passenger ships in Europe;
enhances the SOLAS90 requirements to account for Water
on Deck (WOD) effects
– SOLAS 2009: harmonized probabilistic damage stability
regulations for passenger and dry cargo ships
Performance based approach: Physical model experiments or
employment of nonlinear 3D Time Domain simulation methods
accounting for the flooding and ‘sloshing-WOD effects’
Project GOALDS (Goal based Damage Stability)
EMSA III Study
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Introduction to GOALDS
The currently in force probabilistic damaged stability regulations for dry
cargo and passenger ships (SOLAS 2009) represent a major step
forward in achieving an improved safety standard through the
rationalization and harmonization of previous damaged stability
requirements (SOLAS 90, A265, SOLAS B-1).
There are, however, serious concerns regarding sufficiency of the
adopted formulation for the calculation of the survival probability
and the required level of safety of passenger ships, particularly for
some ROPAX and large cruise vessels.
The EU funded FP7 project GOALDS (Goal Based Damaged
Stability, 2009-2012), responds to these concerns by state of the
art research studies and by formulating a new rational, risk-based
regulatory framework, properly accounting for the damage stability
properties and the safety expectations of our society for passenger
ships.
Nov-15
4
GOALDS – Project Facts
Funding Framework: European Commission, FP7, 2nd call
Project Type: Collaborative Project, Grant Agreement: 233876
Evaluation: Received highest score among all submitted project proposals in
transport
Budget: 4.458 Mio EUR, Funding: 2.999 Mio EUR
Partnership: 18 partners from 9 European Countries;
4 Yards, 3 Shipping companies, 3 Class societies, 2 Flag authorities, 2
Research institutes, 3 University Laboratories, 1 Design Company
Start: Sep. 1, 2009, End: October 2012
Coordinator / web contacts: Prof. A. Papanikolaou, Ship Design Laboratory,
National Technical University of Athens, http://www.goalds.org
Nov-15
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The Project Consortium
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Nov-15
National Technical University of Athens (coordinator)
University of Strathclyde
Germanischer Lloyd AG
Det Norske Veritas
Safety at Sea
Lloyds Register of Shipping
Hamburg Ship Model Basin
Vienna Model Basin
Danish Maritime Authority
Maritime and Coastguard Agency
University of Trieste
STX France Cruise SA
FINCANTIERI Cantieri Navali Italiani S.p.A.
MEYER WERFT GmbH
Color Line
Carnival PLC
RCL (UK) Ltd.
STX Finland Cruise Oy
NTUA
SSRC
GL
DNV
SaS
LR
HSVA
VMB
DMA
MCA
DINMA
STX FR
FC
MW
CL
CAR
RCL
STX FIN
Greece
UK
Germany
Norway
UK
UK
Germany
Austria
Denmark
UK
Italy
France
Italy
Germany
Norway
UK
UK
Finland
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Vienna Model Basin Ltd.
NTUA-SDL
Coordinator
Nov-15
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GOALDS Objectives and Main Results
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Nov-15
To enhance the statistical knowledge base regarding collision and
grounding casualties of passenger ships and to check the validity of related
international safety regulations.
To develop an improved mathematical model for estimating the probability
of survival of a passenger ship in case of breach of her hull and for
assessing the time available for an orderly evacuation of the ship. 
To validate the newly developed mathematical models by experimental and
numerical simulation analyses. 
To set-up a new risk-based required safety level for the survival of
passenger ships in which societal acceptable levels of risk for people
onboard are implemented. 
To evaluate the practicality of the new formulations by a series of concept
design and multi-objective optimization studies for passenger ships of
different type and size. 
Upon completion, to submit major project results for consideration to the
International Maritime Organisation IMO, in view of compelling needs to
revisit current damage stability regulations for Ro-Ro passenger and cruise
ships, particularly mega ships (December, 2012). 
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Sample Results:
Experimental Studies
The damage stability of two sample RoPax and two cruise
ships in waves was tested
More details: see presentations by HSVA and VMB at GOALDS year 2 public WS, Oslo, Oct.
2011, http://www.goalds.org
Nov-15
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Sample Results - Elaborated Ship Designs
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Nov-15
Developed a series of
concept design studies of
passenger ships of
 different type RoPax
and cruise ships
 and
size
smallmedium-large.
The designs are currently
elaborated
by
project
design teams consisting of
project representatives of
 Shipyards
 Shipowners
 Class societies
 Flag Administrations
 University laboratories
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Optimization Platform NTUA-SDL:
Integrated NAPA & mode FRONTIER
Input File
(Design Variables)
NAPA
(Parametric Model)
ModeFRONTIER
Output Files
(Objective Functions,
Constraints etc.)
Nov-15
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Panamax Cruise Ship, Parametric Model
Nov-15
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Panamax Cruise Ship:
Formulation of the optimization problem
Optimization Variables
 Beam
 Draught
 Height of Dk 2
 4 variables controlling the length of
MFZ no 1, 2, 4 and 5
 4 variables controlling the length of the
w/t compartments within these zones.
Objective Functions
The ship’s length is a depended variable,
derived from the sum of lengths of the
main fire zones.
 TROLL > 16sec
 min(PLLG)
 min(Econ. Impact)
Constraints
 AS  RS  0.0075 
1  AS
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 PLLG < PLLG-INIT
 Intact Stability Requirements
Number of Feasible Designs:
508
 TD < 7.8m
Number of Unfeasible Designs:
173
 -1.0m < trim < 0.25m
Nov-15
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Panamax Cruise Ship, Optimization results
Nov-15
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Comparison of Original and Optimized Design
PANAMAX Cruise Ship – STX France & NTUA-SDL
Length BP (m)
Beam (m)
Draught Subdivision (m)
Height to bulkhead deck (m)
CAPEX (m$)
Gross Economic Impact (m$)
GMS (m)
GMP (m)
GML (m)
T-Roll (sec)
A SOLAS
A GOALDS
PLL (SOLAS)
PLL (GOALDS)
Nov-15
Original
269.140
32.200
7.850
10.600
0.000
0.000
2.440
2.143
2.143
19.83
0.818
0.865
2.120
1.569
Design 636
269.14
32.900
7.798
10.600
2.657
-0.110
2.989
2.724
2.724
18.14
0.900
0.933
1.162
0.781
Diff.
0.000
0.700
-0.052
0.000
2.657
-0.110
0.549
0.581
0.581
-1.69
0.082
0.068
-0.958
-0.788
Diff. (%)
0.00%
2.17%
-0.66%
0.00%
22.50%
27.11%
27.11%
-8.52%
10.02%
7.86%
-45.19%
-50.22%
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Comparison of Required
Subdivision Indices
0.9 for pob  1,000

RIndex1  
0.97 for pob  6,000
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

2300

RIndex2  1  
5

pob

20000


Pending final
discussions/approval
by IMO
Nov-15
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Project GOALDS:
Conclusions on Optimization and
Cost Benefit Analysis of Passenger ships
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The obtained results indicate that there is
room for a significant increase of the
Required Subdivision Index in comparison
with the requirements of SOLAS 2009.
The implemented optimization methodology
is a valuable tool to:
the designer in the exploration of the huge
design space,
administrators/regulators in defining reasonable
levels of ship’s survivability that can be achieved
cost effectively.
Nov-15
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GOALDS Web Site & Contacts
GOALDS web site
http://www.goalds.org
NTUA-SDL web site
GOALDS contact:
A. Papanikolaou
papa@deslab.ntua.gr
Nov-15
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EMSA III Study (2013-1015)
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Assessment of the acceptable and practicable risk
level of passenger ships related to damage stability
Main tasks
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–
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Risk acceptance criteria and risk-based damage stability
Evaluation of risk form watertight doors
Evaluation of risk from raking damages due to groundings
Combined assessment of cost effectiveness of RCOs
Recommendations for decision making at IMO
Consortium:
– Coordinator: DNV-GL
– Partners: to a large extent the same like in GOALDS
Nov-15
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REVIEW OF MAJOR MARINE ACCIDENTS
THE EVOLUTION OF THE INTERNATIONAL DAMAGE STABILITY REGULATIONS
by
Professor Apostolos Papanikolaou
National Technical University of Athens - NTUA
Ship Design Laboratory – SDL

papanikolaou_review-of-marine-accidents

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