Jun 16, 2015 - Bloomberg LP
Transcription
Jun 16, 2015 - Bloomberg LP
Tuesday June 16, 2015 www.bloombergbriefs.com Reserve Bank of Australia Minutes; Russian Rate Cut COMMENTARY IN THIS ISSUE JUSTIN JIMENEZ AND BEN BARIS, BLOOMBERG BRIEF EDITORS Has the Hong Kong Shanghai Stock Connect led to a "Chinafication" of Hong Kong's equity market? Fielding Chen examines the movement in the Hang Seng. WHAT TO WATCH: Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's June policy meeting will take the spotlight during a light day of economic data in Asia. The central bank left its cash rate target unchanged at 2 percent during the meeting, though recent statements from Governor Glenn Stevens indicate a clear easing bias. The minutes, released at 9:30 a.m., may provide hints on which factors could lead to another cut. (See chart below.) ECONOMICS: The Bank of Russia said inflation risks will hinder further monetary easing after cutting its key interest rate for the fourth time this year to counter a looming recession. The central bank lowered the key rate by 100 basis points to 11.5 percent. GOVERNMENT: Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush formally announced that he’ll run for President of the United States. Asian Development Bank President Takehiko Nakao kicks off a visit to India. At 5 p.m., he will hold a press conference to discuss economic issues, the India-ADB partnership and ADB’s India program. COMPANIES: Citic Securities Co., China’s biggest brokerage by market value, will raise as much as HK$27.1 billion selling stock to 10 investors, including the Kuwait, Singapore and Malaysia sovereign wealth funds. MARKETS: China’s holdings of Treasuries rose for a second month in April to $1.26 trillion, as Japan’s fell to $1.22 trillion, the lowest level in a year, figures showed. TWEET OF THE DAY Callum Thomas @Callum_Thomas The #China growth formula: 1. Add debt; 2. Profit; 3. Repeat. http://t.co/A1pC3xcRpM Details QUOTE OF THE DAY (All times local for Hong Kong.) RBA Minutes Will Be Watched for Specific Rate-Cut Trigger "I’m very concerned about Sydney. Some of what’s happening is crazy. But we’ve got a national focus we have to manage as well, and that just increases the complexity." — Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens on soaring property prices in Sydney. Read more about Australia's 'crazy' prices on the Bloomberg terminal. NUMBER OF THE DAY The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate target unchanged on June 2, as expected by most forecasters. Yet the central bank's statement accompanying the announcement was not as dovish as some had hoped. Further easing appears to be data dependent. The statement reiterated that "the economy is likely to be operating with a degree of spare capacity for some time yet" and continued to signal that a weaker Aussie was preferred. The RBA's June minutes will be examined to gauge the requisite triggers for another cut. — Tamara Henderson, Bloomberg Economist 30% — How much further residential property prices in Singapore need to drop, according to Suchad Chiaranussatti, founder of SC Capital Partners. Chiaranussatti said that he won’t be re-entering the city-state's residential market until he sees a further decline in prices, and that prices need to drop by about 20 percent to 30 percent to make residential investments attractive again. Read the full story on the terminal. Bloomberg Brief June 16, 2015 Economics Asia 2 BIG PICTURE FIELDING CHEN, BLOOMBERG ECONOMIST Will China Investors Reshape Hong Kong's Stock Market? The opening of the Hong Kong Shanghai Connect sparked expectations that fundamentals-driven institutional investors from Hong Kong would temper some of the speculative impulses of mainland China's retail-dominated markets. Yet performance so far has triggered concern that the influence is moving in reverse, toward "Chinafication" of Hong Kong's stock markets. The Hang Seng Index jumped 12.5 percent in six trading days during early April as money from the mainland flooded into Hong Kong through the trading link between the two markets. Hong Kong listed Chinese enterprises surged 18.1 percent in the period. H shares, considered "undervalued" by mainland investors, have an average 10.1 P/E compared with the 25.6 price-earnings ratio of Shanghai's stock market. Hong Kong's share prices have sustained high levels since the launch of the stock connect, which has boosted turnover toward a record. The movement in the equity market has shocked some of Hong Kong's local investors, who see a continuous rise in stock prices unsubstantiated by fundamental support. Still, the perils of a Hong Kong stock market "Chinafication" may be overdone. Since the beginning of China's stock market rally in the second half of 2014, the correlation between stock markets in Hong Kong and Shanghai declined to 0.4 in June from 0.5 a year earlier. The correlation between H shares and Shanghai stocks is at about 0.6, matching the average of the past six years. Hong Kong's correlation with Asian markets remains closer than its tie to the mainland. That's because Shanghai's quota to invest in Hong Kong remains limited. The aggregate quota of the southbound channel is about 0.8 percent of Hong Kong's total market cap, which is about HK$30 trillion ($3.9 trillion) as of June 8. The daily quota is about 7 percent of daily Hong Kong Shares Boosted Since Stock Connect Launch Correlation Between Hong Kong, Shanghai Markets Declining See this analysis on the Bloomberg terminal with additional charts here. turnover, about HK$151 billion ($19.5 billion), in the market. Furthermore, the daily quotas have seldom been used up in the past. Limited flows have not been enough to move Hong Kong's markets in line with Shanghai's. As China opens the border to outbound investment flows, the influence of mainland investors on the Hong Kong market will grow. For now, though, with cross-border transactions capped, the impact remains contained. Bloomberg Brief June 16, 2015 Economics Asia 3 TODAY'S DATA CHINA OVERNIGHT Next China Bear Market Seen in $358 Billion of Margin Loans Americas U.S. factory production unexpectedly declined in May as the slump in energy output deepened. The 0.2 percent decrease at manufacturers followed a 0.1 percent increase in April, figures from the Federal Reserve showed. Total industrial production, which also includes mines and utilities, also dropped 0.2 percent. Stock forecasters in search of an early-warning system for the next Chinese bear market are zeroing in on the country’s record $358 billion pile of margin debt. When that three-year build-up of leveraged positions starts to unwind, regulators will struggle to limit the selloff, according to Bocom International. Almost all of 2015’s biggest declines in the Shanghai Composite Index were sparked by investor concerns over margin-trading restrictions. The securities regulator announced plans Friday to limit the amount brokerages can lend for stock trading. A pullback by margin traders would undercut one of the biggest drivers of the rally that’s lifted the value of shares to more than $10 trillion for the first time. Read the full story here. Confidence among U.S. homebuilders rebounded in June to a nine-month high as warmer weather and a brighter economic outlook drew prospective buyers back to the market. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment gauge rose to 59 this month, the strongest since September, from 54 in May, figures from the group showed. Brazil economists raised their 2015 inflation forecast by more than a quarter-point and lowered their outlook for economic activity as the central bank raises borrowing costs. Analysts boosted their forecast for inflation to 8.79 percent from 8.46 percent, according to the June 12 central bank survey of about 100 analysts published Monday. CALENDAR Europe — Zhang Shidong, Kyoungwha Kim & Allen Wan, Bloomberg News TIME COUNTRY EVENT SURVEY PRIOR 7:30 Australia ANZ Consumer Confidence Index — 112.1 9:30 Australia RBA June Meeting Minutes — — 9:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM — -1.5% 9:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales YoY — 2.8% 12:00 Japan Tokyo Condominium Sales YoY — -7.6% 6/16-18 China Frgn Dir Invest YoY CNY 8.0% 10.5% 6/16-22 Indonesia Local Auto Sales — 81600 6/16-22 Indonesia Motorcycle Sales — 524775 6/16-22 Sri Lanka Exports YoY — -0.9% 6/16-22 Sri Lanka Imports YoY — -5.5% 17:00 Germany ZEW Survey Expectations 37.3 41.9 16:30 U.K. CPI YoY 0.1% -0.1% 20:30 U.S. Housing Starts 1090K 1135K Source: Bloomberg BCAL <GO> All times local for Hong Kong. Survey figures updated at 5:19 a.m. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said it’s up to the Greek government to take the next step to break the deadlock in talks with creditors and secure a deal on its bailout. “While all participants need to go the extra mile, the ball lies squarely in the camp of the Greek government,” Draghi said at a hearing of the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. Europe needs a “strong and comprehensive agreement, and we need this very soon.” Russia’s economy shrank in the first quarter at a faster pace than previously estimated as a weaker currency and a surge in inflation eroded consumer buying power. Gross domestic product fell 2.2 percent from a year earlier, the first drop since 2009 and down from a previous estimate for a 1.9 percent decline, the Federal Statistics Service said. GDP grew 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter. Bloomberg Brief June 16, 2015 Economics Asia 4 SPOTLIGHT: AUSTRALIA MICHAEL HEATH, BLOOMBERG NEWS Fired Miner’s 50 Percent Pay Cut Just Start of Australian Wage Pain For 20 years Australians doubled down on debt, confident that rising wages would inflate away the burden and grow their wealth. Now their luck seems to be running out. Geologist Marzena Grochot has been forced to go back to her former career as a dental technician after losing her mining job that paid twice as much. Her plan to sell the family’s house in Perth is also foundering in a weak market as the impact of collapsing mining investment spills out across the economy. “It’s affecting everyone — people stop going out and spending money,” the 37-year-old said. “Even working in the dental industry, everything is slowing down because parents can’t afford any more braces for their kids and are postponing treatments.” Australian wages fell in the first quarter for the first time on record as the wall of Chinese money scooping up the nation’s commodities receded. The implications are profound: stagnant pay limits household spending that accounts for about 55 percent of the economy; it impedes government efforts to repair the budget; and will force the central bank to maintain low interest rates for an extended period or cut even further. “This is going to be long, it’s going to be slow, it’s going to be a grind,” said James McIntyre, head of economic research in Sydney at Macquarie Bank Ltd. and a former Treasury official. “The risk is it’s going to be painful.” The three main levers for the economy to adjust to the end of the commodities bonanza are a sharp depreciation of the currency, a surge in productivity or wage cuts, McIntyre said. The Reserve Bank of Australia has focused on the local dollar, yet with a 2 percent cash rate competing against zero levels in major developed economies also seeking lower currencies, its success has been limited. Higher productivity requires investment to give workers better tools to boost their output, or regulatory changes that improve firms’ operations. But political reluctance to take on vested interests is impeding the structural reforms needed to boost productivity, which dropped in the first quarter. That leaves pay cuts as the economy’s adjustment mechanism. Private Sector Wages Fell in 1Q for First Time on Record “This low wage growth is going to go on for quite a while,” said Bob Gregory, a professor at Australian National University in Canberra who has studied the economy for almost half a century. “So if you’re counting on meeting debt with your wage increases, that’s going to be much harder than ever before.” Household debt as a proportion of disposable income rose to a record 153.8 percent in 2014's final quarter, having more than doubled in two decades. Australian workers face wage cuts just as their American counterparts are enjoying the biggest increase in pay packets since 2006. The difference is reflected in the policies of the respective central banks, with the Fed preparing to tighten policy as the RBA considers further loosening its record-low rate. Governor Glenn Stevens said last week the economy’s performance has been “disappointing” and said it “could do with some more demand growth” over the next couple of years. With households having already built up debt, they “probably have the least scope to expand their balance sheets to drive spending,” Stevens said. While growth in Australia slowed to 2.3 percent in the first quarter, it’s still faster than every Group of Seven country outside the U.S. and U.K., which grew at 2.7 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively, as their recoveries gather pace. Australia’s government, meanwhile, needs wage growth to push salaries into higher tax brackets to narrow a shortfall in revenue. “This has big implications for budgets,” said ANU’s Gregory. “If nominal wage growth remains very depressed, then the deficit is likely to blow out.” For Australian firms, wages are a chicken-and-egg scenario. They need them weaker to increase export competitiveness, but also need the domestic demand that bigger pay packets bring. Australia in 2013 had the highest real minimum wage among developed nations after the Benelux group, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. The central bank estimates 60,000 jobs will be lost from mine construction in the four years through 2018. Given that these are high-paying positions, ex-miners’ new jobs are likely to depress median pay rates and reduce national income. Electricians who previously worked in mines now earn 30 percent to 40 percent less for similar work in the consumer goods industry, said Ed Hinschen, operations director at Labour Solutions Australia, which supplies as many as 3,500 workers. “The market is not very promising at all,” Grochot said. “I don’t want to count because it would be really depressing for me to know how many jobs I have applied for.” Bloomberg Brief June 16, 2015 Economics Asia 5 FRONTIER MARKETS GAVIN SERKIN Argentina: 'Little Trees' Spring Up in Land of the Ever-Losing Currency This is an excerpt from Frontier ~ Exploring the Top Ten Emerging Markets of Tomorrow by Gavin Serkin (Wiley/ Bloomberg Press, April 2015, £29.99, Hardback ISBN: 9781118823736). Click here to read the previous installments on Kenya, Myanmar and Romania. Analysis: Adelante's Julian Adams Traveling from Bucharest via Barcelona to Buenos Aires gives a feeling of faded Latin glory, and nowhere more so than in Argentina – swinging with the world’s ten wealthiest nations before its drift into progressively crazier economic policies. The lunacy hits before you step foot in the country. This is the only immigration form where I have to state the mobile I possess and accessories. I faithfully declare my iPhone 5 and charger. When it comes to buying pesos, I have a choice: swap $100 legally for 550 pesos or get a thousand on the street. It’s hard to avoid falling into crime. In Calle Florida, the main shopping street, an official kiosk is void of customers. Within 5 meters a woman waves a calculator, calling “cambio.” Locals nickname them arbolitos, “little trees.” A teenage arbolito spots me. He shows me his calculator and punches in 950. I shake my head, “mil.” He enters 980 and beckons me to a dress shop. He’s the broker; the woman with the dresses is the dealer. The arbolito tells me how he loves British culture – he’s seeing the English 80s band Depeche Mode tonight and he’s a big fan of Monty Python. Around us, the Union Jack is a la mode on T-shirts and handbags – surprising for a nation whose populist president has been whipping up the idea of kicking the Brits out of the Falkland or Malvinas Islands. It’s Saturday and the shops are packed with people spending money like it’s going out of style – which in Argentina, of course, it is. The peso is crashing. Everyone’s been through this enough times to recognize the signs. Currencies are created, inflated and disbanded. A hundred pesos moneda nacional were replaced by a single peso ley in the 70s, then 10,000 peso leys by one peso Argentino, 1,000 peso Argentinos by an austral and 10,000 australes by a peso convertible. By the early 90s, as inflation hit 20,000%, a single peso convertible – or ARS as the “Argie spot” is suitably known in the language of currency traders – equated to 10 trillion of the pesos used two decades earlier to buy a coffee President Carlos Menem’s economy minister, Domingo Cavallo, broke the pattern by making the peso convertible to the dollar. The exchange rate peg survived Mexico's “tequila” crisis, Argentina has experienced capital flight and disinvestment for the past decade, so if you have a half sensible government with orthodox and balanced economic policies then you should get a big return of capital, creating an investment-driven recovery. Quick Facts Argentina Population 43,024,374 GDP on PPP basis ($) 771,000,000,000 GDP/Capita on PPP ($) 18,600 Inflation (% pa) 20.8 Unemployment (%) 7.5 Source: CIA World Factbook, December 2014 Optimism is supported by the idea that all the bad things have taken place. The confrontational style that radicalized the country into pro-government and enemy camps has become unacceptable to the public. The low debt level would make it easy for Argentina to tap the capital markets and the bonds should trade with a low and very affordable interest rate. The government was almost heading in that direction in mid-2014 but then Fernandez blew it and turned the other way. Capital flows can come back very quickly. Asia’s economic flu and the Russian debt default of the 90s. But the currency’s straitjacket could only buy so much time without accompanying cuts in government spending. By the end of the decade, farmers were struggling to compete against Brazilian exporters benefiting from a plunge in the real. When President Fernando de la Rua came to power in 1999, Argentina was in recession and running out of funds to support the peg. Having shoveled billions in support, the IMF threw in the towel at the end of 2001, causing Argentina to renege on $95 billion of debt. While Néstor Kirchner – becoming Argentina’s fourth president in two years in 2003 – managed to keep a lid on the peso, rising spending during his wife Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s presidency eroded the reserve of dollars. As the currency weakened further in 2011, Fernandez restricted dollars to those traveling abroad or importing. To the wealthy, it was an invitation to scam. Argentines flew to New York or took the hour-long boat trip to Uruguay to draw cash on credit cards. The most popular purchases were goods hardest to find back home because of import restrictions – like iPhones, fetching triple the cost in New York. One economist in our run of meetings bought a car with borrowed pesos. The 20% interest rate was below 30% inflation and 50% devaluation. A commodities trader was finding inner peace at a Buddhist retreat when “the ARS fell out of bed” in 2014. He’d bought soybeans on loan. They were gaining on Chinese demand as the peso tumbled. By the time the government got around to closing the loopholes by slapping taxes on credit cards and purchases abroad, backed by controls like my immigration card, the roads were chock a block with German cars. There have been many lunatic policies, reflects Lucha, a drama student who part-times as a city tour guide. By way of illustration, she leads a route past mothers begging on the steps of the Catedral Metropolitana to the beautiful mosaic-floored interior. A couple of years earlier, all of these hundreds of thousands of tiny tiles were individually broken off and cleaned, she says, shaking her head. “They had nothing better to do.” Next Stop: Vietnam. Published next Tuesday, June 23. June 16, 2015 Bloomberg Brief Economics Asia 6 ECONOCHAT MARKET CALLS BLOOMBERG NEWS COMMENTARY ON THE WEB India's industrial-production data is now headed in the right direction, though we will have to wait for more signs before concluding that the slow pace of recovery is behind us, according to ANZ. The lack of a downward surprise for inflation, on the other hand, confirms that the Reserve Bank of India is likely to stay on hold. Should the U.S. maintain its reluctance in joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, that would be a mistake, argues Paolo Mauro of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "By participating in the AIIB, advanced economies will be able to influence its operations, ensure that its processes are transparent, and put in place incentives for projects that preserve the world's natural resources and control climate change," he writes. "The United States is well placed to play a constructive role in that endeavor." Goldman Sachs sees evidence that exchange rates have led to a significant difference in South Korea's recent export performance. The bank expects BOK to hold until late next year, although it doesn’t rule out a further rate cut later this year in event of a delay in the Fed's lift-off from September or a further worsening of the MERS situation. Westpac lowered its forecast for the New Zealand dollar to 65 U.S. cents by the end of the year, compared with a previously expected 68 cents. The bank sees the NZ dollar buying 90 Australian cents by end of year, from 94 cents previously. Westpac says if the kiwi stabilizes at current levels, the case for a RBNZ rate cut in July would be bolstered. Bank Indonesia is likely to keep its reference rate unchanged at 7.5 percent on June 18, according to Standard Chartered. The bank no longer expects a cut this year because it would increase pressure on the rupiah and import inflation, outweighing the benefits of a cut for real GDP growth. Standard Chartered sees Bank Indonesia boosting its key rate by 25 basis points to 7.75 percent in September to defend the currency from the risk of capital outflows due to a potential U.S. Fed rate increase. Saudi Arabia “will not be a bargain, but it can be a nice diversification from emerging Asia that has become increasingly large within emerging markets. The biggest losers will be markets associated with oil and energy: Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Indonesia, Malaysia,” according to Martial Godet, head of emerging-market equities and derivatives strategy at BNP Paribas. China's relationship with the EU is moving away from a focus on economic partnership "towards unprecedented levels of political cooperation," writes Silvia Menegazzi of LUISS Guido Carli University, Rome. Menegazzi expects international security, terrorism and maritime affairs will be among the challenges to be faced by the two parties. June 16, 2015 Bloomberg Brief Economics Asia MARKET INDICATORS Source: Bloomberg. Updated at 5:22 a.m. Hong Kong time. 7 Bloomberg Brief June 16, 2015 Economics Asia 8 THE BOTTOM LINE BLOOMBERG NEWS The Bottom Line collects a week's worth of economy-related corporate anecdotes from Bloomberg News stories. Chaebol Hedge fund manager Paul Elliott Singer, said he would oppose a proposed Samsung Group merger, and all hell has broken loose. The local press has attacked Singer as a meddling pariah. Hundreds of minority investors are banding together to back Singer and the government has stayed neutral. The billionaire has set off a debate about the privileges the industrial titans known as chaebol have held. “Samsung and South Korea are at a crossroad,” said Kim Sang Jo, executive director at Solidarity for Economic Reform. “If Samsung sticks to its old ways or if South Korea stirs up a nationalistic movement against Elliott, foreign investors’ interest in South Korea will sour.” (June 12) — Rose Kim, Kyunghee Park and Jiyeun Lee Energy India is set to add more solar capacity than wind power for the first time as Prime Minister Narendra Modi looks to curb energy shortages. The solar pivot may take Modi closer to the goal of scaling up clean energy in India fivefold by 2022, part of his push for energy security and greater control over pollution. Suzlon Energy, the fifth-largest wind turbine maker, plans to install 500 megawatts of solar capacity over the next five years. ReNew Power Ventures is building about 250 megawatts of solar projects. (June 11) hedges for the dollar in the past, said Takuo Soga, a company spokesman. (June 12) — Anindya Upadhyay — Chikako Mogi and Hiroko Komiya Food Retail Logistics Restaurants, food producers and retailers are among a small but growing number of companies doing what few managed for long during Japan’s lost decades: raising prices. From beef bowl chain Matsuya Foods to supermarket and convenience store operator Seven & I Holdings, businesses are betting that consumers will pay more for premium products, shifting from discount-driven strategies that Fast Retailing used to build its brand into a force during Japan’s deflationary years. The shift is getting the most traction in food-related companies, where the yen’s decline over the past two years has pushed up the cost of imported corn, soybeans and wheat. (June 12) GoGoVan is in talks to raise about $50 million at a company valuation of at least $300 million, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The van rental startup handles 15,000 deliveries a day and has signed up 78,000 drivers across Asia. GoGoVan is among a crop of startups operating in the region’s logistics arena. It competes with EasyVan as well as Uber’s own logistics service in Hong Kong, called UberCargo. (June 12) — Keiko Ujikane and Monami Yui Japan Inc. The yen’s plunge below 125 against the dollar this month wiped out many existing hedges and also made replacing those contracts prohibitively expensive for Japanese companies buying the U.S. currency to pay for their imported goods, according to FPG Securities. Kao’s Chief Executive Officer Michitaka Sawada said the toiletry maker views rapid moves in the yen exchange rate as “problematic.” Asahi Group Holdings has managed to limit the impact on its earnings from recent moves in the yen by increasing — Shai Oster Technology Beijing Baofeng Technology was destined for big returns, said Hugo Shong, a pre-IPO investor in Baofeng at IDG Capital Partners. He just didn’t realize how quickly they’d come. In the 55 trading days since Shong took Baofeng public on the Shenzhen stock exchange, the developer of online video players has jumped 4,208 percent. The surge has a lot to do with China’s growing mania for equity investment; it’s also emblematic of a shifting attitude among the nation’s tech companies toward local capital markets. The industry is dismantling overseas ownership structures to take advantage of soaring valuations on domestic stock exchanges and government incentives to list at home. (June 12) — Lulu Yilun Chen and Jonathan Browning Bloomberg Brief: Economics Asia Bloomberg Brief Managing Editor Jennifer Rossa jrossa@bloomberg.net Global Head of Economics Michael McDonough mmcdonough10@bloomberg.net Newsletter Business Manager Nick Ferris nferris2@bloomberg.net Economics Asia Editors Jennifer Bernstein jbernstein60@bloomberg.net Justin Jimenez jjimenez68@bloomberg.net Ben Baris bbaris1@bloomberg.net Chief Asia Economist Tom Orlik torlik4@bloomberg.net Asia Economist Fielding Chen schen609@bloomberg.net Asia Economist Tamara Henderson thenderson14@bloomberg.net Reprints & Permissions Lori Husted lori.husted@theygsgroup.com Advertising Adrienne Bills abills1@bloomberg.net To contact the editors: jrossa@bloomberg.net. © 2015 Bloomberg LP. All rights reserved. This newsletter and its contents may not be forwarded or redistributed without the prior consent of Bloomberg. Please contact our reprints group listed left for more information.