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T - puma.lu.lv
PENALTY FUNCTION FOR MEASURE OF CONTEMPORARY AND FUTURE CLIMATE DIFFERENCES U.Bethers, D.Cepīte-Frišfelde, J.Seņņikovs, A.Timuhins (tim@modlab.lv) Laboratory for Mathematical Modelling of Environmental and Technological Processes, Faculty of Physics and Mathematics, University of Latvia Abstract The problem of finding the locations on the globe where contemporary climate matches the future climate projections of particular region (Latvia) is addressed. The penalty function is developed assuming usage of 30-year long time series of gridded climate parameters. The penalty function is constructed for measurement of climate deviations in two geographical locations; it accounts for seasonal cycle of temperature and precipitation regime. The result of the study was the distribution of the penalty function characterising the deviation of the moderately, averagely and significantly changed Latvia climate from the contemporary climate over the globe. Where are the regions which represent the contemporary climate of Latvia? 60°N 40°N 20°N 0°N Annual mean precipitation in Riga according to bias corrected (down-scaled) model run results of EU ENSEMBLES project Riga 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.05 0.025 0.01 0.005 0.0025 0 0.6 0.5 63°N 0.4 60°N 40°S 0.3 0.2 57°N 0.1 54°N 2.4 Precipitation, mm/day 60°S Median 17% 83% Contemporary climate deviation 150°W 2.2 lon ,lat t0 0.05 0.025 51°N 0.01 48°N 0.005 45°N 90°W 60°W 30°W 0°E 30°E 60°E 90°E 120°E150°E 6°E 12°E 18°E 24°E 30°E 36°E 42°E 48°E 54°E 2.0 Where nowadays are the regions which represent the future climate of Latvia? Images of areas with similar climate 1.8 19611990 19712000 19812010 19912020 20012030 20112040 20212050 20312060 20412070 20512080 20612090 20712100 How to measure climate deviation between the different regions on the Earth? How to determine the regions which represent the future climate of the particular location nowadays? We propose measuring deviations of the climate by comparing the normalized sum of differences in monthly average temperatures T and precipitation intensities p averaged over time interval ti . Tti 12 LV ti , m 1 12 m lon ,lat ti T p lon ,lat t0 , m p LV ti , m p 1 60°N 40°N 20°N 66°N lon,lat Tti 120.5 maxlon,lat ( Ttilon,lat ) lon,lat ti p The global contemporary data(ptlon,m,lat , Tt lon,m,lat ) from the ECMWF reanalysis data sets were used (ERA-40) . The future climate projections (ptLV,m , Tt LV,m ) (t1,t2) for the Latvia were constructed by the following approach: a) The ensemble of the regional climate model (RCM) runs from the EU ENSEMBLES project was considered. b) The RCM outputs – temperature and precipitation – were bias corrected via statistical downscaling method (Sennikovs and Bethers, 2009) for the contemporary climate represented by the observed data series over the territory of Latvia. The downscaling method included the equalization of cumulative distribution functions of the observed and modelled data series in a moving time window. c) The bias correction method was applied for the future climate projections by RCMs. d) The ranking of the magnitude of climate change by different models was performed for the ensemble of future climate projections. Moderate, average and significant climate change were considered as the 17th, 50th and 83rd percentile of the ensemble members. 0 0 i 0°N 0.6 0.5 60°N 20°S 0.4 0.3 0.2 57°N 40°S 54°N 0.1 51°N 0.025 48°N 0.05 0.01 60°S 0.005 0.0025 42°N Near future (2021-2050) Average climate change lon ,lat t1 39°N 0°E 6°E 150°W 90°W 60°W 30°W 0°E 30°E 60°E 90°E 120°E150°E 12°E 18°E 24°E 30°E 36°E 42°E 48°E 54°E 60°N 40°N 20°N 66°N i 0.7 0°N 0.6 63°N 0.5 60°N 20°S 0.4 0.3 0.2 57°N 40°S 54°N 0.1 51°N 0.025 48°N 45°N 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.05 0.025 0.01 0.005 0.0025 0 0 ,lat maxlon,lat ( ptlon ) i ti is one of the time intervals: t0 - contemporary climate (1961-1990) t1 - near future climate projections for Latvia (2021-2050) t2 - far future climate projections for Latvia (2071-2100) lon, lat is geographical location; 0.7 63°N 45°N lon,lat ti 0 39°N 1.4 lon ,lat 0.0025 42°N 0°E 1.6 1 12 lon ,lat Tt0 ,m 12 m 1 Images of Latvian landscape 0.7 66°N 20°S 2.6 Landscapes of the similar climate areas 0.05 0.01 60°S 0.005 0.0025 42°N Far future (2071-2100) Average climate change lon ,lat t2 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.05 0.025 0.01 0.005 0.0025 0 0 39°N 0°E 6°E 150°W 90°W 60°W 30°W 0°E 30°E 60°E 90°E 120°E150°E 12°E 18°E 24°E 30°E 36°E 42°E 48°E 54°E Acknowledgements This research was supported by the European Social Fund project „Establishment of interdisciplinary scientist group and modelling system for groundwater research” (Project Nr. 2009/0212/1DP/1.1.1.2.0/09/APIA/VIAA/060). Regional climate model data provided through the ENSEMBLES data archive, funded by the EU FP6 Integrated Project ENSEMBLES (Contract number 505539). ESF project "Establishment of interdisciplinary scientist group and modelling system for groundwater research“ Project nr. 2009/0212/1DP/1.1.1.2.0/09/APIA/VIAA/060
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