Needs and challenges of climate change adaptation in NL

Needs and challenges of climate change adaptation in NL

Climate Change in Newfoundland & Labrador
Impacts and Adaptation
Newleef Conference – 08 October 2015
Met-Ocean Services
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The Team
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Terrestrial Weather Services
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Cloud based database management; Customized
web portals; Mobile apps, websites, and data
collection tools; Forecast production systems
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
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Marine Forecasting—Offshore, ports and harbours;
Data collection and analysis (waves, currents, tides
etc.); Ice Management Services; Modeling-hydrodynamic, wave, tsunami, storm surge
Information Management
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Winter Road Weather Information Systems;
Construction support services; Equipment installation
and data monitoring; Severe Weather Forecasting
(Insurance and Energy); Wind energy and resource
assessment; Modeling—high resolution atmospheric
and sub-surface; Flood forecasting
Marine Services
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55 personnel; 24/7 operational weather forecast desk;
Equipment technician group; Ice management; Metocean data analysts; Modeling and consulting
Water resources, infrastructure, vulnerability risk
assessments, energy projects, severe and extreme
events projections
© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
ISO 9001:2008 certified
Presentation Outline
►Weather
and Climate
►Observed Changes
►Climate Change Science and Models
►Climate Change Projections and Impacts
►Adaptation and Resilience
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© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
Weather
and
Climate
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© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
Weather
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© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
Climate
IPCC WG1 AR5 Figure SPM.3
http://www.windatlas.ca/ 50m mean
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Climate Change
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Long term shifts in weather
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Average conditions
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Timing and magnitudes
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Variability and extremes
We can see it now!
Temperature, precipitation, winds, etc
IPCC SYR AR5 Figure SPM.7
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© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
Observations
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© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
Global Observations – The Air
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10 warmest years in 134-year
record have happened since
1998
► 0.68°C increase over
preindustrial temperatures
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© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
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Record high temperature events
increasing
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Increasing numbers of intense
rainfall events
Global Observations – The Sea
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Sea level +17 cm (6.7”) in past
century
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Ocean stores ~90% of
additional heat in climate
system
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Top 700 m +0.17°C since 1969
Acidity +30% since beginning
of industrial revolution
© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
Global Observations – The Ice
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Greenland -285 B tonnes/year
► Antarctica -135 B tonnes/year
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Glaciers retreating globally
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© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
-400 B tonnes/year
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Arctic sea ice declined rapidly
since 1979
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Spring snow cover extent has
decreased
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Snow melting earlier
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Less of it to melt
Goose Bay – Temperature Trends
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Gander – Precipitation Trends
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Science
and
Models
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© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
1859 – A Big Year!
Image courtesy of EDF Energy
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© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
Forcing and Feedback
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center – Earth Observatory
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Climate forcing
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Feedbacks
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The sun
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Countless and complicated
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Radiation balance
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E.g. Tair → Sea Ice → Tocean → Tair …
© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
Climate Models
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Based on physical
laws
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Approximations of
the real world
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3D grid of ocean
and atmosphere
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Supercomputers
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
Projections
and
Impacts
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© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
Climate Projections – Globally Robust Results
CBC News
IPCC AR5 Fig 12.5
NASA
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More uncertainty: Specific regional and local impacts
© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
Climate Projections – North America
+4.5-6.0 °C
CURRENT
PATH
Add segment and
caption if required.
IPCC AR5 WG2 (Regional) Fig 26-3
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Climate Projections – North America
+10-30%
IPCC AR5 WG2 (Regional) Fig 26-3
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Climate Projections – NL in General
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Warmer temperatures year round
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Greater increases in winter and north/west/inland
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Increased agricultural potential
Less frost events on shoulder seasons
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More growing degree days
Increased precipitation
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Average annual accumulation
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More intense extremes
Sea level rise
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Significant for the island, not so much for the Big Land
© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
Climate Projections – Extremes in NL
Summer Extreme Hot
RCP8.5 2046 – 2065
Extreme Precipitation
RCP4.5 2046 – 2065
IPCC AR5 WG2 (Regional) Fig 26-4
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Climate Projections – Extremes in NL
Summer Extreme Dry
RCP8.5 2080 – 2099
March Extreme Low Snow
RCP8.5 2070 – 2099
IPCC AR5 WG2 (Regional) Fig 26-4
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Adaptation
and
Resilience
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© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
Adaptation and Resilience
“Successful adaptation does not mean that negative
impacts will not occur, only that they will be less severe
than would be experienced had no adaptation
occurred.”
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Natural Resources Canada
“Resilience is the capacity of individuals, communities,
institutions, businesses, and systems within a society to
survive, adapt, and grow no matter what kinds of
chronic stresses and acute shocks they experience.”
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Adapted from 100 Resilient Cities
Be Prepared!
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© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
Adaptation and Resilience
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Status quo no longer sufficient!
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Can no longer base designs, regulations, governance, etc on the
historical record
Reduce negative impacts
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Higher capacity culverts
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Reinforce/relocate coastal infrastructure
Take advantage of the positive impacts
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Increase agriculture
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Plan for lower snow clearing and heating needs
© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
Identify Key Systems and Infrastructure
Healthcare
Homes and cabins
Water resources
Commercial buildings
Offshore industry
Fishery
Food security
Education
Agriculture
Tourism
Energy security
Ocean transportation
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© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
Recreation
Land transportation
Vulnerability Risk Assessments
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Direct where adaptation efforts should focus
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What are the sensitive sectors?
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What is the current adaptive capacity?
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Risk = Consequences + Likelihood
Free Adaptation Tools and Resources
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NL’s “7 Steps to Assess Climate Change Vulnerability in Your Community”
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Engineers Canada’s PIEVC Protocol
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Federation of Canadian Municipalities
Help develop an Action Plan
© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
Action Plan Components
Land use
planning
Infrastructure
upgrades
Licensing and
regulation
Community
services &
engagement
Workforce
development
Adapted from Federation of Canadian Municipalities “Changing Climate, Changing Communities: Guide for Municipal Climate Adaptation”
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© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
Roads
Snow clearing and ice control
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Bridge and culvert washouts
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Potholes – freeze/thaw
Amec Foster Wheeler Road Weather Information System
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Thorburn Rd FreezeThaw Cycles (2011-2015)
http://www.env.gov.nl.ca/env/climate_change/vultool/pdf/chapter2.pdf
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© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
Air (2 m)
225
Surface
331
Sub (6 cm)
266
Healthcare
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Increased heat stress
► Pests and invasive species
► Infrastructure vulnerabilities
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© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
Food Security
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Increased agricultural potential
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Food import challenges
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Long supply chains
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Droughts and conflicts
Ports and ocean transportation
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Storm surge > sea level rise
© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
Offshore Industry
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More severe storms
► Altered wind regimes
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Sea ice risks
► Iceberg risks
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© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
Challenges
►Awareness
of climate change impacts
►Accepting the need to adapt
►Awareness of available tools and resources
►Making long term a priority
►Near term costs
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© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
Opportunities
►Awareness
is increasing
►Replacing aging infrastructure
►Take advantage of positive impacts
► More
than most places!
►Develop
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diverse industry
© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.
Thank you!
Jonas Roberts
jonas.roberts@amecfw.com
(709) 722-7023
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© Amec Foster Wheeler 2015.