- India Energy Security Scenarios

NITI AAYOG
Government of India
HANDBOOK
Energy Division
NITI Aayog
Government of India
August 2015
Disclaimer
It should be noted that the IESS, 2047 pla orm does not 'recommend' or 'prefer' any one scenario or
pathway, or suggest NITI Aayog's view of the energy pathway that India may take un l 2047. It merely
provides the user a way to understand the realm of possible scenarios and their implica ons. However,
these data sets are not purported by NITI Aayog to be a source of authen c Government data. Although,
greatest a en on has been given to using both historical and future data sets from Government sources,
the IESS, 2047 is not intended to be a data base of energy related sectors of India. With respect to costs, it
may be noted that the IESS, 2047 is an energy calculator and not one of costs. The cost implica ons derived
for each pathway are meant to give an indica ve cost of the energy related investments required for each
pathway, which do not include the Infrastructure costs. It may also be noted that the Tool enables users to
subs tute the given data by their own, and build their own pathway. We would appreciate receiving
pathways from users of the IESS, 2047 Version 2.0.
CONTENTS
Foreword
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 01
Preface
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 03
From the desk of Adviser (Energy). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 04
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 08
Section 1: About the IESS, Version 2.0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1.1
Components of the IESS, 2047 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.2
What is new in the IESS, 2047 Version 2.0? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.3
How to use the tool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Section 2: Sector Specific One Pagers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Choices around Energy Demand
2.1 Transport. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
2.1.1
Passenger Transport Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
2.1.2
Passenger Transport Mode . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
2.1.3
Freight Transport Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
2.1.4
Freight Transport Mode . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2.2 Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
2.2.1
Energy Intensity of Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
2.2.2
Technology Options in the Cement sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.2.3
Technology Options in the Iron and Steel sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
2.3 Cooking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
2.4 Buildings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
2.4.1
Building Envelope Optimization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
2.4.2
Efficiency of Residential Lighting and Appliances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
2.4.3
Efficiency of Commercial Lighting and Appliances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
2.5 Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.5.1
Energy demand for Mechanization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.5.2
Energy Demand for Irrigation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2.5.3
Choice of Fuel for Irrigation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
2.6 Replacement of Diesel in Telecom sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Choices around Renewable and Clean Energy
2.7 Solar
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
2.7.1
Solar Photovoltaic Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
2.7.2
Concentrated Solar Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
2.7.3
Distributed Solar Photovoltaic Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
2.7.4
Solar Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
2.8 Wind
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
2.8.1
Onshore Wind Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
2.8.2
Offshore Wind Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
2.9 Hydroelectric Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
2.9.1
Large Hydroelectric Power Stations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
2.9.2
Small Hydroelectric Power Stations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
2.10 Nuclear Power. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
2.11 Bioenergy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
2.11.1
Biomass Residue Production and End-Use Application . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
2.11.2
First and Second Generation Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
2.11.3
Algae Biofuel Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
2.12 Energy from Municipal Solid Waste . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
2.13 Hydrogen Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
Choices around Conventional Energy
2.14 Gas
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
2.14.1
Domestic Gas Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
2.14.2
Gas Power Stations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
2.15 Coal
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
2.15.1
Domestic Coal Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
2.15.2
Coal Power Stations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
2.15.3
Efficiency of Coal Power Stations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
2.16 Oil Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
2.17 Carbon Capture and Storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Network and Systems
2.18 Cross Border Electricity Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
2.18.1
Cross Border Electricity Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
2.18.2
Cross Border Electricity Exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
2.19 Transmission & Distribution Losses and Smart Grids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
2.20 Electrical Energy Storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
2.21 Reliability of Power Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Section 3: Example Pathways. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
3.1
Maximum Energy Security Pathway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
3.2
Maximum Clean & Renewable Energy Pathway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
Section 4: Some Key Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
FOREWORD
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DR. ARVIND PANAGARIYA
VICE CHAIRMAN
Phones :
Fax.: :
E-mail :
23096677, 23096688
23096699
vch-ni @gov.in
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Government of India
NATIONAL INSTITUTION FOR TRANSFORMING INDIA
NITI Aayog, Parliament Street
New Delhi-110 001
Energy is among the most important ingredients in any nation's growth recipe. India recognised
this fact early in the process of development and took steps necessary to efficiently deliver energy
in its various forms to its businesses and citizens. The state has played an active role in this sector
via public sector enterprises in coal, oil, gas and power. The high priority that the present
Government accords to this sector is reflected in its announcement early in the term to issue a
new National Energy Policy. The NITI Aayog is privileged to have the opportunity to prepare this
important document.
During 2013-14, the erstwhile Planning Commission had undertaken a major exercise that led to
the creation of the utility India Energy Security Scenarios (IESS) 2047 aimed at assessing and
predicting India's energy needs, domestic supplies and imports. The utility was launched in
February 2014 and has been behind several detailed exercises undertaken by numerous entities
within and outside India. The widespread use of the utility has led the team at the NITI Aayog, the
successor institution to the Planning Commission, to refine it in a variety of directions. The result
has been the IESS 2047 2.0. The dedication with which the team and its partners in India and
abroad have worked to create this greatly enhanced version of the original utility is
commendable. Version 2.0 has numerous new features that are described in this document.
As an example, the IESS 2047 2.0 now allows for three GDP growth scenarios of 7.4%, 6.7%, and
5.8% during 2012-47 and offers a range of energy consumption projections. While it is my hope
that India would grow even faster than the top rate of 7.4% built into the utility, the responses of
energy demand and supply to the GDP growth in different sectors it generates make for a rich
analysis of India's energy future.
The Government has announced ambitious developmental targets in the sectors of housing, rural
electrification, renewable energy, assured electricity supply and reduction in oil import
dependence among others. The Ministries are now framing schemes and programmes to
translate the above targets into reality. These targets have been built into the new version of
IESS 2047 2.0 to simulate the associated energy demand, supply and costs under the three growth
scenarios. In turn, the scenarios may be useful to the line ministries in guiding future policy. More
details of the IESS 2047 2.0 including a series of illustrative results are summarized in the main
body of this document.
01
As we embark upon the exercise to prepare the National Energy Policy at the NITI Aayog, we look
forward to using the IESS 2047 2.0 as an important input. The timing of the launch of the utility
could not be better from yet another perspective. The 21st Conference of Parties (COP 21) of the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is due to take place from 30 November
to 11 December 2015. In preparation towards this conference, participating countries will submit
their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). In this context, the IESS 2047 2.0
may provide critical inputs into determining India's INDCs.
Simulations and scenario building are critical aspects of policy making. But such exercises must be
continuously refined and improved. As such, at the NITI Aayog, we greatly welcome the inputs
from the vast community of researchers and analysts from India and abroad. At the same time, I
hope that researchers and analysts will find the IESS 2047 2.0 utility useful for their own work.
(Arvind Panagariya)
02
PREFACE
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Sindhushree Khullar
Chief Executive Officer
E-mail : ceo-ni @gov.in
Tel. : 23006575
Fax.: : 23096575
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Government of India
NATIONAL INSTITUTION FOR TRANSFORMING INDIA
NITI Aayog, Parliament Street
New Delhi-110 001
NITI Aayog has expressly been given the responsibility of encouraging academic research and
networking with research institutions in India and abroad. The India Energy Security Scenarios,
2047 (IESS,2047) is a fine example of the Government joining hands with independent think tanks
in harnessing knowledge in collaboration, with an aim to improve the programmes and policies of
the Government. I am happy that close on the heels of the first version, the Energy Division of the
NITI Aayog has now come out with Version 2.0 in association with its partners.
On the policy front, NITI Aayog will be leading the exercise of proposing a new National Energy
Policy (NEP) for the country. Again, this exercise will envisage networking with a wide range of
private and public institutions. I am sure, IESS 2047 Version 2.0 will under-pin the new policy in a
significant manner. The expertise developed in the process of preparing this Tool will benefit the
Government and our knowledge partners alike. I look forward to the extension of this present
partnership for contribution to the NEP as well.
Another important aspect of NITI Aayog's charter is working as a bridge for close coordination
with the States. The instant Tool is a handy energy demand/supply projection model, particularly
because it disaggregates sectors and identifies distinct levers which impinge on energy pathways.
In light of the above, the exercise is quite amenable to identifying the role of States in advancing
India's energy security. For example, as the Prime Minister has declared a target of achieving 175
GW of renewable energy capacity by 2022, the projections can now be further split into ambitions
for resource rich States. Similar exercises could be done for enhancing oil and gas production, coal
production, etc., keeping the concerns of land, grid integration issues of Renewable Energy, Air
Quality etc., in mind. The instant tool is capable of developing the above outputs. I do hope that
our partners will come forward to join hands with NITI Aayog in developing State specific subsectors of IESS 2047.
I commend the efforts of the NITI team and would also like to thank all the knowledge partners in
India and abroad who helped put this Tool together.
(Sindhushree Khullar)
03
From the desk of Adviser (Energy)
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ANIL K JAIN, IAS
ADVISER (ENERGY)
Telefax. :
E-mail :
011-23096551
anilk.jain@nic.in
Government of India
NATIONAL INSTITUTION FOR TRANSFORMING INDIA
NITI Aayog, Parliament Street
New Delhi-110 001
IESS, 2047 has been created with a shared conviction of NITI Aayog and the energy research
community of the value that intellectual advice adds to energy policy. The above belief has been
proven by the fact that the IESS, 2047 has supported a number of exercises of energy demand
estimation and its implications. This has motivated us to produce the Version 2.0. The latter is not
merely an up-dation of numbers, but a de novo exercise in many ways. A sharper analysis of
demand and supply sectors has been supplemented with new features as have been elaborated
below. The IESS Team also devoted a lot of time on incorporating new features in the website
(www.indiaenergy.gov.in) and webtool that might make the Tool more user-friendly. The above
aspect can only be experienced and not written about. The widespread use of this analysis will be
the true measure of success of this effort. Therefore, only the new analytical additions have been
listed as below:
o Three GDP growth scenarios of 7.4%, 6.7%, and 5.8% in this version enrich the Tool by offering
a range of energy related projections. As elasticity of energy demand varies across demands
sectors, the same has been recognised in this bottom-up exercise.
o The Government has announced ambitious developmental targets in the sectors of housing,
rural electrification, renewable energy, assured electricity supply, reduction in oil import
dependence, among many others. The Ministries are now framing schemes and programmes
to translate the above targets into reality.
The new version of IESS has adopted the above
targets and developed scenarios of energy demand, supply, costs, etc., around them, which
may be very useful to line Ministries.
o It is evident that a transition to a new energy system requires additional infrastructure which
can come only after fresh capital infusion. Therefore, the scenarios around new energy
pathways proposed by IESS, cannot be evaluated without an assessment of their cost
implications. This version offers a detailed exercise on costing. The tool acknowledges that
cost projection in the long term can only be offered as costs scenarios which is taken into
account by offering a range of cost scenarios till the terminal year of the study.
o We are aware that innovation and technology quickly outpace existing technologies. The
present IESS Version-2.0 boldly brings in hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles, along with a more
aggressive role for solar water heaters and roof top solar as energy supply sources. The above
addition enhances the quality of projections.
04
The new features in the present proposal have been supplemented with fine-tuning of the earlier
modelling exercises. It is appreciated that scenarios depend a lot on the outlook of the modeller,
and inter-model comparisons are difficult to make. However, refining an existing model is always a
welcome exercise, as it indicates that the modeller has tightened his/her assumptions and
acknowledged better outputs from the existing algorithm. This raises the quality of projections. In
the IESS Version 2.0, the team has assumed higher potential of penetration of efficiency in
industries which was earlier modelled around merely BEE's Perform-Achieve-Trade (PAT) scheme.
The team has acknowledged that adoption of Best Available Technologies (BAT) may offer even
better potential results than what is provided in the PAT scheme, and has modified its work on
Industry this time. The housing sector always poses a challenge to energy modellers in
segregating the role of penetration of ECBC, from more efficient lighting/cooling/heating
equipment. The new version incorporates space cooling/heating/lighting assumptions which
overcome the above challenge to some extent. The above two examples demonstrates the added
value proposition in the new effort.
SALIENT RESULTS
On the basis of this nearly yearlong exercise of the team at NITI Aayog and their partners, the
following results are worthy of consideration:
o It has been found that many assumptions of the earlier studies, viz., the Expert Committee
Report of the Integrated Energy Policy (IEP) and of the Expert Group on Low Carbon Strategies
for Inclusive Growth (LCIG) are modest in many sectors as compared to the potential
estimated by the IESS. As an illustration, the solar potential indicated in the IEP was merely 10
GW in 2031-32 whereas the present Tool projects it at nearly 100 GW to be achieved with
exceptional efforts by 2022. Similarly, the prospect of deploying natural gas in the power
sector has been under-estimated in the Report of IEP as well as the LCIG. Then, while the LCIG
Report is bullish on domestic oil production, assuming nearly 119 MMT of oil production in
2030, the IESS is more realistic and assumes more modest production. However, this is
dependent on geological resources which remain uncertain until exploration is complete.
o The Tool reveals that there is a possibility of reducing energy demand by heroic efforts in the
area of energy efficiency by 34% in the year 2047. Of this, nearly 80% potential lies just in two
sectors - Industry and Transport.
o Within the Industry sector, an increase in industrial efficiency coupled with shifts in
technology towards cleaner alternatives, in both the Cement and Iron and Steel sectors, lead
to the realization of the maximum energy savings potential.
o In the Transport sector, the major potential of reducing energy demand lies in the Passenger
Transport segment wherein, shift to public transport and adoption of electric and fuel cell
vehicles can make a difference by nearly 40% reduction of energy demand.
o As regards supply side interventions, the study reveals that over 60% import reduction is
achievable with sustained efforts. Amongst these, increase in renewable energy supply and
domestic coal production are likely to make most of the difference, and have been adopted by
05
the present Government as its priority areas for action in the energy sector.
o What is most heartening is, that if action on both demand and supply sides were adopted in a
coordinated manner, then India's import dependence for energy in the year 2047 would be
reduced from the default case of 57% to 22%. This will be a major achievement over the
present 31% import dependence for primary energy supply which is threatening to rise yet
more.
o The above possibilities demand that India ramps up share of electricity in the delivered energy
supply which is presently merely at 16%. There is a possibility to raise the above share to
nearly 40% in 2047 aided by a large increase in renewable energy, and adoption of electricity
based solutions on demand side such as electric vehicles, electric hobs in cooking, and
electrification of diesel-fuelled telecom towers and irrigation pumps.
o On costing side, the Tool reveals an interesting result that higher efficiency of energy use on
the demand side and cleaner energy on the supply side, is actually a cheaper pathway on lifecycle cost basis, than staying with the conventional energy system. This is quite intuitive as is
being witnessed presently with LED bulbs and solar energy price trends. However, we have to
be cautions to understand that such transitions would require large capital investment, which
itself would be a daunting task for the Indian economy to procure and deploy. If the cost of
capital on infrastructure were included, then new pathways would also be expensive.
o On the emissions side, while this is an energy calculator, we get a picture for 75% of the total
GHG emission of our economy. GHG emission projection are directly linked to the level of
renewable energy and energy efficiency measures that India may deploy in the coming
decades. Therefore, there is a wide range of likely energy sector emissions in 2047 from 3.3
Tonnes per capita to 7.8 Tonnes per capita. The moderate effort scenario on both demand
and supply sides, which also assumes Government's present policy outlook towards
renewable energy, leads us to a likely emissions of nearly 5 Tonnes per capita. This is much
lower than what the developed world is attempting even in response to calls for drastic
reduction in emissions.
The above discussion on the new features of IESS Version 2.0 and the results yielded under
different scenarios, call for a deeper exercise. Most energy projection exercises do not offer disaggregated projections for different demand and supply sectors. Hence, projections only help in
macro energy policy advice. The IESS, however, offers numbers for specific sectors which in the
Indian context allow sector specific detailed enquiries. For example, this Tool gives a range of
renewable energy deployment, linking it to the overall demand for electricity as well as the
availability of electricity supply from storage based solutions. While it highlights that ramping up
renewable energy is not merely a function of Government's drive to raise renewable energy
capacity, but is also dependent on a number of other technical factors, principally the resilience of
the electricity system to balance the grid. Inter-ministerial exercise to harness all the storage
based electricity solutions along with MNRE and MoP can further refine an IESS projections and
assure the likely investors of stable grids as an attractive investment regime. The aim of the IESS
06
exercise is also to provide the background for such sectoral studies especially because energy is
largely an inter-connected subject with multiple influences of demand and supply sectors.
This time, we are also releasing five compilations of the research outputs of IESS:
n
Compilation of one-pagers on all Demand and Supply sectors (IESS, 2047 Handbook)
n
Energy demand sectors- Detailed documents (Sector Specific Insights Part I)
n
Conventional energy supply sectors- Detailed documents (Sector Specific Insights
Part II )
n
Clean and Renewable Energy supply sectors- Detailed documents (Sector
Specific Insights Part III)
n
Network and Systems- Detailed documents (Sector Specific Insights Part IV)
The dedicated website of IESS, 2047 hosts all the research outputs, including the Excel sheets of all
sectors. The aim of this exercise goes beyond the placement the data and analyses in the public
domain, and extends to encouraging enquiries by individuals and institutions, so that they may
contribute to the public debate on India's energy pathways. Engagement with citizens and
institutions is the single most important objective of this effort.
Anil K Jain
Adviser (Energy)
NITI Aayog
27.08.2015
07
INTRODUCTION
T
he India Energy Security Scenarios, 2047
(IESS, 2047) is a tool developed by and
housed in the Energy division of NITI Aayog.
The first version of this tool was launched on
February 28, 2014 and can be accessed at
www.indiaenergy.gov.in . (Now archived) The
present Version 2.0 is an improved edi on with
addi onal inputs and analyses.
In view of the rising energy demand and s cky
import dependency at nearly one-third of all
primary commercial energy demand of India,
the need for long term energy planning
remains as strong as ever. It has also become
important to look at the long term, i.e., the
next 3-4 decades, looking beyond 2030 and
2031-32, which are the terminal years of
several earlier Indian energy studies. As
energy sector decisions have huge cost
implica ons, energy related investments also
ought to have long term perspec ve. Keeping
the above in mind, the erstwhile Planning
Commission, now NITI Aayog, decided to
undertake an energy scenario building
exercise early in the year 2013, called the India
Energy Security Scenarios, 2047. It has been
built as a knowledge portal, combining IT
applica ons, behavioural aspects, energy
related emissions, local resource
endowments, all sources of energy supply and
demand, technologies of global scale as and
when they are inducted in the Indian system,
and cost- me parameters.
An IT enabled webtool, backed by a detailed,
open-source excel model, offers user-friendly
graphic representa ons of the energy demand
and supply scenarios for the country, which
dynamically represent the scenario which the
user may choose out of mul ple op ons
offered in the tool. While the earlier version
(Version 1.0) of the IESS, 2047 offered the user
08
an op on to observe the implica ons of his
pathway on import dependence, land-use and
carbon dioxide emissions for the scenario
chosen by him/her, Version 2.0 of the IESS,
2047 offers an addi onal set of implica ons to
the user. While using Version 2.0, the user can
witness the implica ons of his choices on cost
to the economy and Greenhouse Gas
emissions, in addi on to import dependence
and land-use. Version 2.0 also has a large set of
value addi ons in terms of added technologies
and sectors that are gaining importance in the
present landscape, updated datasets, more
intensive modelling approaches etc., which
will be elaborated upon in the following
sec ons. Version 2.0 also builds in the recent
developmental goals of the government to
make the tool relevant in the present policy
space.
The IESS, 2047 is expressly an energy scenario
building tool. The guiding ambi on of this is to
develop energy pathways, at five yearly
intervals, leading up to the year 2047,
comprising of likely energy demand and supply
scenarios. The end demand and supply
numbers are generated in light of the adop on
of different combina ons of energy efficiency
measures and technology interven ons on the
demand side and an increase in indigenous
produc on of the country on the supply side.
The tool has been so developed, that it can
create hundreds of scenarios with different
combina ons of levels/efficiencies of energy
demand and supply sectors.
The primary use of IESS, 2047 is to project
scenarios of percentage of the total energy
supply (as per the pathway chosen by the
user), that may be met by imports. Hence,
while the tool segregates the demand for
energy by sectors, and supply numbers by
sources, it also generates energy import
numbers and cost by source, and aggregates
the same to offer total energy imports under
different scenarios. The tool also enables the
user to witness the implica ons of his/her
choices on land area and emissions. A high
share of solar energy and wind, too, would
have implica ons on land requirement, which
is a scarce resource for a dense country like
India. As the scenarios generated for different
sectors are linear (either rising or falling, as the
case may be), the graphic representa on
of the data sets is simple and easily
understandable even by non-energy experts.
The tool has been built with the help of a wide
pool of knowledge partners from the
Government, Industry, Think Tanks, NonGovernmental organiza ons, Interna onal
research agencies and the academia. The
networking of top energy related think-tanks
with energy Ministries, is a high water mark
achieved in this exercise. This has added to the
intellectual quality and transparency of the
en re exercise.
The tool also has a very strong social media
component aiming to disseminate the results
and the messages of the IESS, 2047 to the
public. It is also a completely open-source tool
and can be considered a one-of-a-kind data
repository for energy sources in the country.
A detailed examina on of the tool will reveal
how changes in choices of energy demand and
supply, yielding different levels of energy
import can help a planner to decide the
sector(s) in which interven ons can be more
effec ve to meet the desired policy objec ves.
The tool allows the user to delve deeper into
the levers of energy demand for all the
demand sectors, and enables finding out the
impact of different levers on energy demand.
Since the tool also offers fuel-wise data, it is
also possible to see as to which demand
sectors ought to be influenced through
suitable policy measures, to curb consump on
of such fuels in which India is more import
dependent. Hence, it is a handy tool to use, for
those interested in understanding the energy
security dimensions of the country.
NITI Aayog has in the past, and is also
presently, in the process of conduc ng na onwide outreach workshops to promote the
usage of this tool and involve more people in
the exercise for consensus building and
crea ng awareness about energy policies.
Wo r k s h o p s h av e b e e n c o n d u c t e d i n
Government ministries (Bureau of Energy
Efficiency, Ministry of Coal, Ministry of New
and Renewable Energy, Ministry of External
Affairs, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas,
Ministry of Power, Central Electricity
Authority, Ministry of Railways, Directorate
General of Civil Avia on, Ministry of Road
Transport and Highways etc.), as well as for
interest groups such as academia, industry etc.
in different parts of the country, witnessing
par cipa on from the Industry, local
academia, state governments etc. and
industry bodies (FICCI, CII etc.) A variety of
organiza ons are aiming to replicate this
prac ce for different states and sectors. The
IESS, 2047 has also evoked interest in Indian
and interna onal researchers for extension of
academic pursuit.
The levels
For each sector, four levels have been
developed, the descrip ons of which are as
follows:
Level 1-the 'Least Effort' scenario: This
assumes that li le or no effort is being made in
terms of interven ons on the demand and the
supply side.
Level 2- the 'Determined Effort' scenario: This
describes the level of effort which is deemed
most achievable by the implementa on of
current policies and programmes of the
government.
Level 3- the 'Aggressive Effort' scenario: This
09
describes the level of effort needing significant
change which is hard but deliverable.
Level 4- the 'Heroic Effort' scenario: This
considers extremely aggressive and ambi ous
changes that push towards the physical and
technical limits of what can be achieved.
The first sec on of this book aims to give the
reader a brief overview about the IESS,2047
and its components. It also contains a
subsec on on how to use the IESS,2047 V2.0
webtool.
The second sec on of this booklet aims to give
the reader a concise bird's-eye view of the
sector specific assump ons and trajectories of
each sector considered in the IESS, 2047. The
one-pager documents compiled inthis
collec on, also bring out the range of energy
demand/supply under the four scenarios as
likely outcomes of the assump ons.
10
The third sec on of this booklet consists of
four hypothe cally generated example
pathways of combina ons of these demand
and supply scenarios. These pathways map out
the extremi es of energydemand and supply
as well as self sufficiency in terms of domes c
fuel produc on and carbon dioxide emissions.
It should be men oned that these pathways
are simply indica ve of the feasible scenarios
and are not prescrip ve.
The fourth sec on of this booklet summarizes
the key findings of the IESS, 2047. It talks about
the energy savings in the demand sectors and
the increase in indigenous produc on on the
supply side as we transi on from level 1 to
level 4.
For more informa on on how to develop your
own pathway and detailed documenta on for
each sector, please log on to our website:
www.indiaenergy.gov.in
Section 1:
About the IESS, 2047
Version 2.0
Sec on 1: About the IESS, 2047
Version 2.0
1.1 Components of the IESS, 2047
Version 2.0
The open-source MS Excel model
The tool is backed up by detailed Excel Sheets
for all sectors on both the demand and the
supply sides which contain all the sector
assump ons, drivers and the methodology
used to construct each sector at five yearly
intervals ll 2047. This data has been obtained
from a variety of public sources. Historical data
has been sourced from published documents,
while the projec ons up to 2047, have been
made by different expert agencies, keeping in
mind likely scenarios.
This model is downloadable on the user's
computer and amenable to genera ng
implica ons should the user choose to input
his own numbers.
The Webtool
The dynamic and interac ve webtool interface
which enables the user to play on the levels
and choose their own energy pathway. This is
the main interface between the user and the
detailed excel model. One can choose
pathways on the web interface and the same
draws from the excel spreadsheet at the
backend to generate the results and
implica ons of the chosen pathway.
The One-Pager Documents
The concise one pager documents accessible
through the webtool (by clicking on the line
items) and also on the website by clicking on
the respec ve sectors in the drop down menu,
allow the user to get a glimpse of the
trajectories of each sector in one quick view.
The Detailed Documenta on
The detailed documenta on for each sector
present the sectoral background, the
assump ons behind each sector, the
12
methodology followed to construct the same
and addi onal sector related informa on.
The same can be accessed at our website
www.indiaenergy.gov.in
1.2 What is new in the IESS, 2047
Version 2.0?
We, at NITI Aayog, with the support of our wide
range of knowledge partners, are constantly
working towards improving the analy cal
credibility of the IESS, 2047. Since the energy
scenario of India is changing at a rapid pace, we
thought it best to work on newer versions of
the model with updated data sets, inclusion of
new sectors and technologies that are gaining
importance, and factoring in some new
implica ons like the cost to the economy of
different interven ons etc. to enable the users
to make be er informed decisions. Also,
keeping in mind the rising growth rate of the
country and long term perspec ve , we have
also offered three levels of GDP growth to the
user, on the basis of which the energy demand
outputs are generated. A detailed exercise was
undertaken to determine the different
elas city of energy demand in different sectors
to three assumed GDP growth rates.
Version 1.0 of the IESS, 2047 created scenarios
around our choices of energy demand and
supply while analysing emissions and land-use
as its implica ons in the context of energy
security. Version 1.0 also tried to incorporate
all the major demand and supply sectors of
energy and the technologies which will make
those demand and supply choices possible.
Having learnt from the process of
development, engagement of knowledge
partners, and feedback from the academia,
industry and other stakeholders, it made
perfect sense to constantly update the tool and
make it more comprehensive. Along with the
upda on of data and projec ons in a majority
of sectors, to reflect the changing energy
scenario, a snapshot of the value addi ons in
version 2.0 are presented as follows:
Addi onal Choices
offered to the user
Scenarios for the Growth of the Economy
Keeping in mind the fluctua ng economic growth condi ons of the
country, we have offered three scenarios of GDP growth to the user
(7.4% CAGR, 6.7% CARGR and 5.8% CAGR, all ll 2047), on the basis of
which the end-energy demand outputs are generated. Naturally, at
higher GDP growth rates, the energy demand is higher. The default
scenario is the first one, i.e. 7.4%
Cos ng
For a policy maker, it's very important to analyse the trade-off of
inves ng a rupee out of public exchequer on incen vising a technology
op on, or on promo ng a par cular fuel, viz., energy efficiency and
renewable energy op ons. To bring this quan ta vely into
perspec ve, we have included Capital, Opera ng, Fuel, Infrastructure
(only on the supply side) and Finance costs for each of the sectors
(both demand and supply) into the IESS Version 2.0. The tool generates
scenarios of cost implica ons of such choices. This gives a broad
picture of implica ons of energy choices on costs in the long run.
Three op ons for each of the aforemen oned cost categories
Keeping in mind the uncertainty of costs that may pan out in the long
period, we have generated cost scenarios and offered the user choice
between high, low and point es mates for all costs (Demand and
Supply sides). Depending on the cost op on chosen, the tool
aggregates the total costs for the chosen pathway and enables an
analysis of the incremental cost of the chosen pathway, with respect to
the default scenario (determined effort scenario) and also relate it as a
percentage of India's GDP. Hence, the tool does not generate total or
absolute costs, but the increment/savings in the chosen pathway vis-àvis Level 2 choices or default pathway.
Emissions
Keeping in mind the increasing focus of India on improving our air
quality especially in urban areas, the IESS, 2047 takes a deeper dive
into es ma ng the energy related emissions by including major Green
House Gases (GHGs) - Methane and Nitrous Oxide along with Carbon
Dioxide. To enable the user to have a more comprehensive picture, we
have also included fugi ve emissions from produc on and mining of
fossil fuels. However, this tool does not take into account all emissions
(from agriculture etc.) or sinks, as it is merely capturing energy related
emissions.
Stress Tests
With the new Renewable Energy targets of 175 GW by 2022 in place,
there is increased concern about the ability of our grid to absorb high
shares of this infirm variety of electricity. As a stress tes ng exercise,
Lawrence Berkeley Na onal Laboratory, U.S.A has run mul ple
scenarios of the IESS, 2047 on their Grid Planning and Dispatch model
for India.
The main objec ve of this simula on exercise was to assess the
preliminary technical feasibility, in hourly intervals, of the iden fied
scenarios of the IESS and broadly iden fy the storage and balancing
13
electricity requirement for the grid integra on of renewable energy.
This is supplemented by the chosen level of the Storage technologies
that have also been built into the tool. High levels of RE will require
high storage capacity, so that the la er may supply electricity when
intermi ency happens.
New Technologies
Government
Announcements
Supply Sectors
n
Technologies for Hydrogen produc on for Transport and Telecom.
n
Storage based technologies - segregated by power and energy
storage.
n
Introduc on of Fuel Cell Vehicles in Transport.
n
Housing for All by 2022
n
175 GW of Renewable Energy
n
Rural electrifica on
n
100 Smart Ci es
n
24x7 Electricity by 2022
n
Targets for reduc on of Oil Import Dependence (10% by 2022, 27%
by 2030)
Renewable energy:
n
Introduc on of scenarios for Solar Water Heaters
n
Introduc on of Solar Roof Top Scenarios
n
Changing pre-exis ng scenarios to factor in the new government
targets for renewable energy
Fossil Fuel Electricity Genera on:
n
Scenarios for phasing out of Diesel Based Genera on
n
Separa on of Coal produc on into open cast/underground mining
n
Calcula ve of fugi ve emissions for fossil fuel produc on
Electricity Imports and Exports
n
Introduc on of scenarios for Cross-border electricity trade exports
(in addi on to imports, presently there in Version 1)
Transmission and Distribu on
n
Demand Sectors
14
Introduc on of costs of Transmission Grids and the Na onal Smart
Grid Mission
Transport
n
Addi on of Fuel Cell Vehicles as a technology choice for the user
n
Costs for rolling stock
n
Demand ac vity based on GDP elas city
Buildings
n
Bo om-up approach, based on ac vity demand and elas city of
building space to GDP, for es ma ng space cooling and hea ng
demand
n
Es ma on of space cooling demand based on thermal comfort and
heat conduc ng ability of different building materials
n
Offering 3 scenarios each around external temperature rise and
the structure of urban spaces ll the year 2047.
n
Sub-categoriza on of Residen al Urban, Residen al- Rural and
commercial buildings and es ma on of energy demand for each
category.
n
Es ma on of hot water demand for both commercial and
residen al buildings
n
Factoring in 'Housing for All by 2022' and Affordable Housing.
n
Appliance ownership pa erns depending on GDP elas city.
Industry
Restructuring of Energy Efficiency scenarios to include more drivers
along with the PAT scheme. Even technology op ons have been
adopted in steel and cement sectors which add value to the analysis
other than merely autonomous energy efficiency op ons.
Telecom
Addi on of other solu ons for replacement of diesel in the telecom
sector. Version 2.0 considers solar roo op, wind, bioenergy and
hydrogen solu ons for replacement of diesel, as opposed to only
roo op solar solu ons in version 1.0.
15
1.3 How to use the IESS, 2047
1. Select the Level of effort for Demand sectors, Supply sectors and Network and Systems.
Click on downward arrow to select more op ons for a sector.
2. Select the scenario (we call them Levels) by clicking on the numbered boxes
3. Click on the Informa on icon (le er i enclosed in a circle) or Lever name to open a One-pager.
16
4. Hover over different levels to know what it means (these tool ps can be really useful!).
5. This menu bar gives you a range of op ons (we call them'Implica ons'of a pathway) that you
can explore for your chosen pathway.
17
6. Explore more graphs and tables by clicking on individual items.
7. Click on 'Help' to know how to use the webtool and explore some interes ng features.
18
Section 2:
Sector Specific One-Pagers
Choices Around Energy Demand
2.1 TRANSPORT
2.1.1 PASSENGER TRANSPORT DEMAND
The average distance travelled annually per person in
India in 2011-12 was only 5,992 km. The same statistic in
the European Union in 2009 was 11,700 km; in the United
Kingdom in 2012 was 14,500 km; while in the United
States of America, it was about 28,000 km per year in
2010-11. With increased economic development, there
is expected to be an increase in mobility and demand for
both inter-city and intra-city passenger transport in India
over the next few decades. These numbers refer to
Scenario 1 of GDP (7.4% CAGR).
Level 1
It assumes a steady increase in the per capita demand for
transport over the next four decades. From current
levels, distance travelled annually per person is expected
to increase to 18,420 km by 2047. Improved access to
transport infrastructure, accompanied by increasing
demand for mobility due to increased economic activity
would lead to an increase in total passenger transport
demand. Distance travelled per capita will rise steadily
for both intercity and intra city travel.
Level 2
Level 2 envisions a rise in the number of activity centres
across the country, thereby reducing the demand for
inter-city travel of people migrating for employment
opportunities. Better planning and improved urban
designs would also lessen intra-city travel distances. This
Level would see a drop in the overall annual demand for
mobility per capita by about 9 per cent from the mobility
demands envisioned by 2047 in level one, reaching
16,803 km by 2047.
Level 3
Level 3 visualizes a world where all new cities that come
up in the country in the next four decades plan for Transit
Oriented Development, and there is a conscious effort to
incorporate similar best practices in pre-existing urban
centres. Smart, IT enabled transport infrastructure
enabling better route optimization for commute trips
further helps in reducing the transport demand per
person. Annual per capita passenger transport demands
would thereby be moderated by about 18 per cent over
the present mobility demands envisioned by 2047 under
level one, reaching 15,186 km by 2047.
Level 4
Level 4 is a world where the growth of passenger
transport demand would be moderated by conscious
policy initiatives on urbanization patterns and transport
demand management. Realization of targeted economic
development in the rural sector will significantly reduce
demand for transport of migrant workers seeking
employment in urban centres. The measures for Transit
Oriented Development would get strengthened further,
with focus on minimizing the need for commute trips and
other trips for daily needs. Further improvement in IT and
IT enabled services would markedly reduce demands for
both intra and inter-city passenger travel. All these
initiatives would reduce the annual per capita passenger
transport demands by about 26 per cent over the
passenger transport demands envisioned by 2047 under
level one, reaching 14,377 km by 2047.
Passenger KM per person per year
20,000
18,420
16,803
15,186
18,000
Pkm per year
16,000
14,000
14,377
12,000
10,000
8,000
5,992
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
2012
2017
Level 1
20
2022
Level 2
2027
2032
Years
Level 3
2037
2042
Level 4
2047
2.1.2 PASSENGER TRANSPORT MODE
In 2012, es mated travel by road accounted for 85% and
rail accounted for 14% of total passenger traffic. The
remaining 1% traffic was on air. The share of public
modes of transport (Buses and Omnibuses) on roads was
about 74%. Electric vehicles witnessed a limited
penetra on in the market, the prominent share of which,
around 1%, was mainly in the two wheeler segment.
With improved road transport infrastructure and
increased penetra on of private modes of road
transport, railways have been consistently losing share in
the overall passenger traffic volumes in India. The
decade between 2001 and 2011 also saw a rapid growth
in air transport in India. Given the present trends,
Railways will further lose share in the overall transport
mix in the country over the next few decades.
Level 1
This level assumes that the present trends in mobility
shares will continue till 2047. The intermodal share of
passenger transport demand is expected to tilt further
towards road based modes. There would be a surge in
the total number of cars and jeeps by 2047 thereby
decreasing the share of public road based transport to
45%.The penetration of electric two-wheelers is still
assumed to be limited because of the absence of any
incentive mechanism and thereby increases as per past
trends to 18% in 2047. Although there will be a growth in
rail based transport systems, the growth will be marginal
compared to road and air transport. As a result, by 2047,
the share of road in passenger transport will become
about 86% while the share of rail will be about 12%. In
addition, as more planned airports in smaller cities
become operational and money value of time increases,
it is expected that the share of aviation in the overall
passenger transport demand will increase to 2%.
Level 2
Level 2 envisages a focus on rail based mass transport
systems. Metro and suburban rail systems would be
extended to a number of urban centers across the
country. Faster train sets will operate for inter-city rail
passenger services. This would positively affect the trend
of falling shares of rail based passenger transport and the
intermodal share of rail would rise to 15% by 2047.
Demand for faster intercity travel would maintain civil
aviation shares at about 2% While road based passenger
transport would still dominate, with an increase in the
share of public road based transport to about 57%, its
share would marginally reduce to about 83% of the total
passenger transport demand by 2047.This level also
assumes policy decisions on the side of the government
to subsidize electric vehicles, thereby increasing the
penetration of electric four-wheelers to 13%,electric
two-wheelers to 26%, electric buses to 3% of the road
based transport in 2047, buses on fuel cell engines to 1%
and cars on fuel cell engines to 4%.
Level 3
Level Three assumes conscious and increased
government policies towards incentivizing metro and
suburban rail services, introduction of high-speed rail
corridors and projects like Regional Rapid Transit System
(RRTS) across various urban centers. This will aid in
shifting larger volumes of passenger mobility from road
and air to rail based transport systems. The share of road
is assumed to decrease to less than 81% by 2047 in this
level while rail and aviation will occupy about 18% and
less than 2% shares respectively. Incentivizing metro
s e r v i c e s wo u l d i n c re a s e t h e s h a re o f p u b l i c
transportation in road based transport to about 67% in
2047. Additionally, this level assumes that the National
Electric Mobility Mission Plan kicks in and thereby the
penetration of electric two-wheelers increases to 39%,
electric four-wheelers increases to 26%, electric buses
increase to 7% of the road based transport, buses on fuel
cell engines increase to 2% and cars on fuel cell engines
increase to 9% of the total road based transport in 2047.
Level 4
In level four, the focus of government policies is expected
to further enhance investments in rail based public
transport like metros in all urban ci es and Rapid Rail
Transit Systems for all urban conglomerates. For inter-city
travel, priority in investment will be to shrink travel me
between all state capitals and major metros to 12 hours
or less through faster train services. High Speed Rail at
300 km/hour for high demand passenger corridors will
help reduce the incidence of air travel. Based on this,
Level Four envisages that the intermodal share for rail
would increase to almost 20% of the total passenger
movement. The share of road will decrease to around
79%; with 80% of the same comprising of public road
based modes of transport and the share of air would be
about 1%. The share of electric vehicles in road based
transport is assumed to increase to about 33% electric
four-wheelers, 70% of electric two-wheelers and 10% of
electric buses, 3% of buses running on fuel cell engines
and 11% of the cars running on fuel cell engines in 204647.
21
2.1.3 FREIGHT TRANSPORT DEMAND
Freight transport demand is dependent on nature of
economic ac vity in the country and is linked to the
growth in the agricultural, industrial, mining,
manufacturing, and service sectors. Measured in terms
of ton-kilometers moved, the demand for freight
transport has grown at a very fast rate in the first decade
of the twenty first century. Given India's economic
growth poten al, the demand for freight movement is
set to significantly increase in the future from the level of
1,672 billion ton-kilometers in 2012. This lever generates
scenarios of freight demand under different condi ons.
Level 1
With an increasing growth in industrial activity, Level One
sees a continuous rise in freight demand, with no
logistical planning. Sectors such as power, cement and
minerals are expected to continue to see an increasing
transport demand. Additionally with increasing
economic wealth, the demand for white goods is also
expected to grow, adding to the overall freight demand.
All this would lead to an increase in the freight transport
requirement from present levels to about 14,843 BTKMs
by 2047.
Level 2
Level Two assumes that as the demand for freight
transportation grows, there is a slight moderation in the
distances of cargo transportation, as economic activities
get more organized through formation of logistics hubs
and industrial clusters. Further, with better planned
markets and points of consumption, the freight traffic
volumes are expected to reduce by 9% of Level One 2047
levels to reach 13,540 BTKM's by 2047.
Level 3
Level Three envisages an improved scenario with
organized logistics assisted by better information
technology solutions to optimize route planning and
more efficient movement of goods across the country.
Planned industrial clusters along with optimized
transport logistics serving commercial and industrial
needs would help in reducing the total volume of freight
traffic by about 13 % from the Level One levels, to reach
12,888 BTKM's by 2047.
Level 4
Level Four envisions India with significantly improved
logis c planning along with a movement towards local
produc on and local consump on. Concentrated
economic ac vity in the form of logis cs parks, industrial
clusters, and industrial centers would result in reduc on
in the average leads for freight transport on both rail and
road. This would imply a reduc on in volume of freight
traffic by about 18 % over Level One by 2046-47 to reach
12,236 BTKM's by 2047.
14,843
16,000
13,540
12,888
14,000
12,000
12,236
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
1,672
2,000
-
2012
Level 1
22
2017
2022
Level 2
2027 2032
Years
Level 3
2037
2042
Level 4
2047
2.1.4 FREIGHT TRANSPORT MODE
Railways accounted for about 42% and roadways for
about 58% of India's total freight traffic in 2012. The
trend in the last few decades has seen an increase in the
share of traffic on roads in the total share of surface
freight transporta on. This is partly linked to an increase
in the share of manufactured goods like white goods, fast
moving consumer (FMC) goods etc. These cargos move
over shorter distances and are me sensi ve. The share
of road has also increased due to the highly compe ve
nature of road transport, convenience and flexibility in
tariffs, and the capability of road to handle smaller loads.
The share of inland water ways and pipelines, which are
both energy efficient modes of transport are rela vely
low and hence not being projected in this exercise.
Level 1
Level one assumes that the observed trend of the past
three decades continues till 2047, with the modal share
rising significantly in favor of roadways. Large-scale
investments in highways and expressways are expected
to encourage the use of road over railways even for travel
distances beyond 700 km. However, it would also lead to
congestion due to the increase in road freight traffic
which could decrease transport efficiencies after a
certain point of time. The share of road in India's total
freight traffic by 2047 will show a marked increase to
71%, and the share of rail will decline to 29%.
Level 2
Level Two sees the introduction of two Dedicated Freight
Corridors –Eastern and Western by 2020. Wagons with
higher payload (25 ton per axle) will further improve rail
efficiency and capacity. Railway freight transport will see
a manifold increase in average speeds from 25 kmph to
50-60 kmph on the freight corridors. This would also be
accompanied with tariff rationalization, both of which
would work towards attracting more rail based
transport. Thus the trend of falling share of rail based
transport is expected to get arrested at about 36% by
2047.
Level 3
Level Three sees higher investments in rail based freight
transport. This level sees an improvement in
infrastructure for freight transport via the introduc on of
DFCs on all four legs of the Golden Quadrilateral
(connec ng Delhi, Kolkata, Chennai and Mumbai).
Ra onaliza on in the tariff regime of railway freight
transport, coupled with increased speeds and a shi
towards containeriza on would increase the share of the
freight traffic on railways to 40% by 2047, with roads
accoun ng for 60%.
Level 4
Level Four sees the introduc on of Dedicated Freight
Corridors throughout the four legs of the Golden
Quadrilateral as well as the diagonals connec ng Delhi to
Chennai, and Kolkata to Mumbai. The policy changes to
encourage a modal shi towards rail freight would
con nue, along with tariff ra onaliza on, increased
priva za on etc. New technologies, such as RoadRailers
(highway trailers that are specially equipped for
intermodal movement on railway tracks and highways)
would further help increase the inter-modal share of
Railways to 45% by 2047.
23
2.2 Industry
2.2.1 ENERGY INTENSITY OF INDUSTRY
The industry sector in India doubled in value during 2001
to 2011 and grew at an annual growth rate of 7%. In 2011
the industry sector consumed ~1656 TWh of energy,
which is 45% of the total commercial energy consumed
(TEDDY, 2012). Seven sub-sectors - aluminium, cement,
chlor-alkali, fertilizer, iron and steel, pulp and paper, and
textiles are the largest energy consumers, accounting for
around 60% (TERI calculations) of total energy use in the
industry sector. These are analysed at individual subsector levels. The remaining sub-sectors are categorized
as “Others”. The present analysis offers scenarios of likely
reduction in energy demand by effecting efficiency
measures in industry. The autonomous Energy Efficiency
(EE) improvement that occurs in individual sectors has
been considered as a major driver in the analysis (CSTEP).
Existing policy mechanisms such as the Perform-AchieveTrade (PAT) scheme of the Bureau of Energy Efficiency
(BEE) wherein the excess energy savings could be traded,
and non-compliance penalized, is also factored into the
analysis.
As the specific energy consumption (SEC) goals are
increasingly taken up by industrial units – penetrating
into smaller units from existing sectors and units from
new sectors - the energy consumption is likely to reduce
further. The energy required by industry as feedstock has
not been analyzed in this exercise.
Level 1
This scenario assumes no new government policies,
other than the one PAT cycle (2012-15). The autonomous
EE penetration levels are also low. The norms are
applicable to only the subset of the units in the seven
industry sub-sectors. However, the efficiency of the units
undergoes a marginal reduction/revision by the end of
the terminal year (2047). The remaining units in the subsector do not opt for EE. The efficiency of these units
improves at 5-15% of the efficiency improvement for the
units that opt for EE. The “Others” undergo reduction in
energy intensity by a CAGR of ~4%.
Level 2
This level includes a gradual enhancement of penetration
of EE in Industry (Table 1). Industrial units opting for EE
would achieve the best efficiency possible in every sub
sector. The units not opting for EE also improve their
efficiency, but by a much lesser degree. The “Others”
undergo a reduction in intensity of about 4-5% CAGR.
Level 3
Building on Level 2, this scenario further increases the EE
penetration under the seven sub-sectors. The units not
opting for EE increase their efficiency across processes at
a rate of 20-30% of the efficiency improvement by units
that opt for EE. The “Others” undergo an efficiency
improvement of about 4-5% CAGR.
Level 4
Level 4 indicates the maximum possible improvement
that can be achieved in the industry sector. This level
further increases EE penetration. In addition, this level
assumes that the units not taking up EE undergo an
efficiency increase of between 20-50% of the units that
opt for EE. The “Others” improve their intensity by about
5-6% CAGR.
Table 1. EE Penetration across Levels
EE penetration (%) in 2047
2012
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Cement
72
19
72
79
Level 4
83
Fertilizer
75
66
75
79
84
Aluminum
69
19
70
79
83
Iron and Steel
56
11
60
69
80
Pulp and Paper
29
6
30
39
48
Textile
93
50
65
68
69
Chlor Alkali
89
50
89
93
94
Note: In cases where the penetration of EE industries appears to decrease from the base year,
the units in the specific sub-sectors do not take up EE measures in a consistent and long term
approach.
24
2.2.2 TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS IN THE
CEMENT SECTOR
The energy demand for Industry has been modelled on
the basis of autonomous improvement in energy
efficiency and technology op ons (process). The level of
penetra on of efficiency having already been adopted,
now the user may choose tech op on in cement, one of
the two major energy consumer amongst the industrial
sector (steel is the other). Four Technology op ons have
been modelled in the cement sector. In general, the
default technology op on is 1 and other op ons are
denoted by increasing numerals. Increase in the numeral
of the technology op on is not necessarily an indicator of
emissions reduc on but in general denotes reduc on in
energy demand (with implica ons on energy imports).
Level A (Default)
TThis option does not invoke specific tech options and
the trajectories are based on the levels which have been
chosen and the SEC reductions are based on these
chosen levels.
Level B (Increased Waste Heat
Recovery)
This option characterizes the impact of a concerted drive
to increase the penetration of WHR technologies in
cement plants. Such technologies are available globally,
but in India, the current penetration is low. Under this
tech option a large penetration of such technologies is
assumed with a corresponding reduction in thermal and
electrical energy used in the process.
Level C (Increased Electricity from the
Grid )
This tech op on models a major switch in the sourcing of
electric power in the cement sector. Current trends show
that plants are preferring to produce most of their
electric power through the use of Cap ve Power Plants
(CPP) which are largely powered by coal. This tech op on
provides insights into the impact of a switch to procuring
most of the electric power from the grid. This assumes
that the grid power would be available and would be
reliable as well. Such a switch provides an improvement
in the energy efficiency of the specific plant since the
inefficiency of the CPP is now outside the plant boundary.
Level D (Increased Alternate Fuels and
Raw Materials)
This tech op on is a major driver for reduc on of thermal
energy consump on in cement plants. European and
Japanese plants are reportedly running with more that
30-50% coal being subs tuted by alternate fuels such as
domes c, industrial and agricultural waste and used
rubber tyres. The penetra on of AFRM in India is
probably less than 1% and thus a large poten al seems to
exist if the enabling infrastructure and incen ves can be
provided along with policy based support.
25
2.2.3 TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS IN THE IRON AND
STEEL SECTOR
The energy demand for Industry has been modelled on
the basis of autonomous improvement in energy
efficiency and technology op ons (process). The level of
penetra on of efficiency having already been adopted,
now the user may choose tech op on in iron and steel,
one of the two major energy consumer amongst the
industrial sector (cement is the other). Five Technology
op ons have been modelled in the Iron & Steel sector of
Industry. In general, the default technology op on is 1
and other op ons are denoted by increasing numerals.
Increase in the numeral of the technology op on is not
necessarily an indicator of emissions reduc on but in
general denotes reduc on in energy demand.
Level A (Default)
This option does not invoke specific tech options and the
trajectories are based on the levels which have been
chosen and the SEC reductions are based on these
chosen levels.
Level B (Switch to Electric Furnace)
This tech option studies the impact of a major shift to
electric furnace processes instead of the oxygen furnaces
which are expected to be dominant in the
autonomous/default scenario. Under this tech option a
major reduction of the Specific Energy Consumption
(SEC) can be expected based on the increased efficiency
of the electric processes. .
Level C (Increased Gas based Direct
Reduced Iron)
This option characterizes the impact of a concerted drive
to increase the penetration of Gas based technologies in
the manufacture of DRI. Plants using gas based DRI are
under operation in developed countries and such plants
26
have reported very low SECs and high efficiencies. In
addition, the emissions from these plants is also much
lower than coal based DRI plants. There are very few gas
based DRI plants in India primarily due to the low
availability of natural gas in the country.This tech option
level assumes large induction of gas based process in this
sector supported by large availability of gas.
Level D (Increased Electricity from the
Grid)
This tech op on models a major switch in the sourcing of
electric power in the iron and steel sector. Current trends
show that plants are preferring to produce most of their
electric power through the use of Cap ve Power Plants
(CPP). This tech op on provides insights into the impact
of a switch to procuring most of the electric power from
the grid. Such a switch provides a major improvement in
the energy efficiency of the specific plant since the
inefficiency of the CPP now goes outside the plant
boundary. The final energy use could be reduced
significantly under this tech op on.
Level E (Increased Scrap)
This tech op on is a major driver for reduc on of thermal
energy consump on in iron and steel plants. European
and Japanese plants are reportedly running with more
that 30-50% iron being subs tuted by steel scrap. The
u liza on of scrap in steel plants in India is probably less
than 3-5%. Increased scrap u liza on has the poten al to
significantly reduce the thermal energy consump on in
steel plants since typically 60% of the total energy is used
for producing iron and this can be saved through the
increased use of scrap in the downstream steel making
process.
2.3 Cooking
Level 1
By 2047, 40% of rural households switch to LPG. In urban
areas, due to increased access to PNG there is switching
from LPG to PNG resulting in 35% of urban households
using PNG while half the households LPG. With reliable
electricity supply to all households, 15% and 18% of
urban and rural households respectively use electricity
for cooking. Biogas users increase gradually from 4% of
the rural population to 7% of the rural population. In
Level 1, India will need 694 TWh by 2032 and 565 TWh by
2047 for its cooking needs.
Level 2
Level 2 assumes that due to effective implementation of
rural programs for increasing access to electricity and
LPG, by 2047, 26% of rural households use electricity and
only 42% of rural households use LPG. Establishment of a
PNG network in some rural areas leads to 3% of rural
households using PNG, while 9% of households use
biogas. Due to a policy push in urban areas for increased
PNG use, 40% of urban India utilise it by 2047 and only
42% will depend on LPG. Given these assumptions, India
will need 582 TWh by 2032 and 491 TWh by 2047 for its
cooking needs.
Level 3
Level 3 assumes, LPG with 30% of rural households using
electricity and 40% of the households using LPG and 12%
using Biogas by 2047. Therefore only 14% of the
households continue to rely on biomass, with all
households switching to improved cook stoves by 2032,
and 4% uses biogas. In urban areas, keen efforts to
increase PNG network leads to 45% of urban households
depending on it as a primary source for cooking energy by
2047. LPG is used for cooking only in 35% of urban homes
and 20% of the homes use electricity. Thus, India's energy
demand for cooking will be 493 TWh by 2032 and 435
TWh by 2047.
Level 4
In Level 4, by 2047, 38% of the rural households use LPG
and 38% depend on electricity. 15% of households use
biogas and only 4% of rural households use biomass with
traditional cook stoves being phased out in 2027. PNG
penetration in urban India increases to 55% and LPG
users falls to 25%. However, at least 20% households use
electricity. Thus, India's energy demand for cooking will
be 428 TWh by 2032 and 383 TWh by 2047
1200
Cooking Demand (TWh)
Currently, in a country with 250 million households, 31%
urbanisation and a per capita income of Rs 39,143,
approximately 1104 TWh of energy is used for domestic
cooking. Energy needed for cooking depends largely on
the fuel used, energy conversion efficiency of the fuel,
population growth, economic growth, government
policies and urbanisation. Data suggests that on an
average, a household uses about 8 to 10 Liquified
Petroleum Gas (LPG) cylinders or 170 standard cubic
meters of Petroleum Natural Gas (PNG) or 1022 kWh of
electricity annually for cooking. Whether it is LPG, PNG or
electricity, energy use due to modern fuels after
accounting for stove efficiencies, roughly translates to an
average use of 7 MJ/day or 1.94 KWh/ day. Therefore the
average useful energy needed for cooking per day per
household is approximately 7 MJ/day. There can be
variations in the demand for energy needed. For this
estimation, it is assumed that the average useful energy
is constant over time. Given the average energy needed
for cooking, there is no distinction made between
commercial cooking and household energy demand for
cooking as the cooking energy needed is to satisfy the
requirement of the same population. Therefore energy
needed for commercial cooking is implicit in this
assessment.
998
1000
800
600
565
491
400
435
383
200
0
200
6-0
7
201
Level 1
1-1
2
201
6-1
7
202
1-2
2
202
Years
Level 2
6-2
7
203
1-3
2
Level 3
203
6-3
7
204
1-4
2
204
6-4
7
Level 4
27
2.4 Buildings
2.4.1 BUILDING ENVELOPE OPTIMIZATION
Construction is the second largest economic activity in
India and has contributed around 8% to the nation's GDP
(at constant prices) from 2007 to 2011. The real estate
sector contributes to around 24% to the construction
GDP of India and has been growing at a CAGR of 12%.
It has been estimated that 70% of the building stock in
the year 2030 would be built during 2010-30. Residential
and commercial sectors currently account for 29% of the
total electricity consumption, which is expected to
increase substantially in the near future, if present trends
continue.
As a first step, three scenarios on how the urban planning
scenario is expected to pan out in the future are offered
to the user. Depending on the users' choice, the next leg
of this analysis works on reducing the cooling load of
buildings through greater penetration of building codes
into construction of buildings (focussing on building
material) which would reduce the need for cooling
devices. The savings achieved depend on the Urban
Planning Scenario chosen and the GDP level chosen.
These savings in the cooling load then translate into a
savings in the electricity demand of cooling devices,
depending on their increasing ownership and efficiency.
Level 3
Level 3 assumes that along with standard building by
laws, there is development of ECBC compliance
structures at state level, and the modification of the
Energy Performance Index (EPI) bandwidth based
scheme to multi variable EPI scheme, both in the
residential as well as the commercial sectors.
Level 4
Level 4 assumes a continuation of the multi variable EPI
scheme and increasing mandates in states for
implementation of the ECBC code. It also assumes a large
scale drive towards making compliance to the ECBC code,
mandatory, in new construction, till 2047.
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2012
Level 1 assumes that compliance to the Energy
Conservation Building Codes (ECBC) remains voluntary,
as is the case since its inception at the beginning of the
11th five year plan (FYP). Institutional, technological,
informational and financial barriers also exist, which
hinder the applicability of the same.
Level 2
Level 2 assumes, as per the Energy Conservation Act
2001, the introduction of a bye law for ECBC compliance
in new commercial buildings, and mandatory compliance
in government buildings. It also assumes increasing
adoption of incentive schemes, like a reduced property
tax etc., for the ECBC code in new residential buildings.
28
High Rise
S2 - 2047
Horizontal Development
S3 - 2047
Affordable Housing
3500
3000
Space cooling demand
(Residen al) (Twh)
Level 1
S1 - 2047
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
Years
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Penetration of Efficient Envelope Interventions
Category
2012
L1-2047
L2-2047
L3-2047
L4-2047
High Rise
1%
10%
50%
75%
90%
Horizontal
0%
5%
40%
55%
80%
Affordable Housing
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Commercial
10%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Residential
2.4.2 EFFICIENCY OF RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING
AND APPLIANCES
Residen al sector contributed to 25% of the total
electricity consump on in India in 2011. Ligh ng and
major appliances like ceiling fans, televisions,
refrigerators and air-condi oners account for about 80%
of the residen al electricity consump on. The rest
comes from smaller and lesser used appliances like
washing machine, geysers, computers etc. Appliance
ownership is significantly increasing both in rural and
urban households due to rise in income levels.
This analysis captures the effect of a transforma on
towards higher efficiency appliances in the residen al
sector, which when accounted with other factors, will
determine the total demand for electricity in this sector.
The star ra ng programme of the Bureau of Energy
Efficiency is expected to have a major role in this sector.
The scenarios of energy conserva on through efficient
building materials are dealt with separately in the
'Building envelope op miza on' trajectories, and serve
to bring the demand down further by reduc on in hours
of use of appliances. A combina on of the appliances,
and building envelope op miza on trajectories for the
residen al sector will reveal a complete picture of
electricity demand. Water hea ng demand in residen al
establishments is also considered for the final electricity
demand in addi on to appliance demand.
Level 1
Level 1 assumes only slight improvement in efficiency
over 2007 levels. In 2047, 98% of appliances are assumed
to be of low efficiency, 1% are of medium efficiency, and
1% are of high efficiency. Incandescent bulbs still form
the major source of lighting although there is a
substantial mix of Compact Fluorescent Lamps (CFL) and
thin tube-lights. Low efficiency motors are used in ceiling
fans, refrigerators and air-conditioners. A number of
televisions still use the Cathode Ray Tube (CRT)
technology. The usage hours of appliances are also high.
Level 2
Level 2 assumes, in 2047, 45% of the appliances have low
efficiency while 38% have medium efficiency with
balance 17% being high efficiency appliances. Use of
incandescent bulb is reduced while that of CFL and thin
Tube-light is increased along with a small share of LED
lights.
Level 3
Level 3 assumes a 45% share of high efficiency appliances
and a small 13% share of low efficiency and the balance
being medium efficient in 2047. The ligh ng demand is
halved due to increased penetra on of LED bulbs and
tube-lights. TVs use advanced LED backlit LCD technology
to decrease the consump on. The efficiency of other
appliances like washing machines, geysers etc. also
improve. Public awareness on conserva on leads to
decrease in usage.
Level 4
Level 4 assumes a complete market transforma on to
high efficiency appliances. Incandescent bulbs are
almost eliminated and 90% of the lights are LED tubelights and bulbs. Ceiling fans use advanced technology
like Brushless Direct Current (BLDC) motors. All the
refrigerators use high efficiency compressors and be er
insula ons. ACs have variable speed compressors
resul ng into high energy efficiency ra os. There is high
public awareness on conserva on, resul ng in 80% of
appliances being high efficiency, 17% being medium
efficiency and 3% being low efficiency.
Ligh ng
Appliances
100%
100%
90%
esi 80%
g
lo 70%
o
n
h
ecT 60%
f
o 50%
n
40%
io
atr
te 30%
en 20%
P
10%
0%
90%
se
ig
lo
o
n
h
ce
T
f
o
n
o
it
ar
te
n
e
P
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
2012
0%
2012
L1- 2047
Bulb
L2- 2047
Tubelight
CFL
L3- 2047
L4 - 2047
L1- 2047
Low
L2- 2047
Medium
L3- 2047
L4 - 2047
High
LED
29
2.4.3 EFFICIENCY OF COMMERCIAL
LIGHTING AND APPLIANCES
A historical assessment of electricity consump on in the
commercial sector shows an annual growth rate of 12%
between 2005 and 2012. Aggregate consump on of
commercial sector stood at 70 TWh in 2012, of which
hea ng, ven la on and air condi oning (HVAC), ligh ng
and others comprised 55%, 25% and 20% respec vely.
The scenarios of 'energy conserva on' through efficient
building materials are dealt with separately in the
'Building envelope op miza on' trajectories, and serve
to bring the demand down further by reduc on in hours
of use of HVAC and ligh ng appliances. Here we take only
efficiency of appliances. A combina on of ligh ng &
appliances, and building envelope op miza on
trajectories for commercial sector will reveal a complete
picture of electricity demand. Adop on of building
efficiency measures would reduce this demand at
various levels of compliance of building codes. Water
hea ng demand in commercial establishments is also
considered for the final electricity demand in addi on to
appliance demand.
Star ng from a base year ((Low,Medium,High) (L,M,H))
configura on of (50%,50%,0%), different combina ons
of technologies are obtained by 2032 in Levels 1 to 4,
a er which their shares stabilise. Level 1 is dominated by
'low' efficiency technology and 4 by 'high' efficiency
technology. 2 and 3 represent intermediate levels of
energy efficiency. Hence, the present analysis factors in
different levels of energy efficient devices in commercial
ligh ng and other appliances sector.
Level 1
Level 1 is the most pessimistic case of efficiency whereby
the base year configuration does not improve. The
market is unresponsive to better technologies and
potentially reduced life-cycle costs, while policy
imperatives/regulatory requirements and institutional
support are largely missing or inadequate.
Level 2
Level 2 assumes that 20% of the service demand is met by
low-efficiency appliances, 50% by medium efficiency
appliances and the remaining by the Best Available
Technology (BAT). While there is considerable
improvement in overall efficiency of the mix, the
penetration of high or BAT is limited by high upfront costs
and low institutional support to newly established
commercial centers in rural areas and class 2 towns.
Level 3
In level 3, 50% of the market of low technology in BAU is
appropriated by BAT or high technology through a
combination of policy mandates and institutional
support. The resultant (L,M,H) configuration becomes
(20%, 50%,30%) in 2047.
Level 4
Level 4 is the op mis c case, whereby low technology is
eliminated from the market; the medium technology only
sa sfies 20% of the service demand and the remaining
80% is met through the BAT.
Penetra on of technology
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2012
L1-2047
High
30
L2-2047
Medium
Low
L3-2047
L4-2047
2.5 Agriculture
2.5.1 ENERGY DEMAND FOR MECHANIZATION
Fuel efficiency improves, reducing fuel requirement for
an hour of operation to 89 percent of the present value.
The improvement in specific fuel consumption (SFCs) is
autonomous and by 2031, tractors use 4 litres per hour of
diesel. The demand for diesel reaches saturation at 28 Mt
(342 TWh).
The number of tractors in the country was about 5.3
million in 2011 and has been growing at 6 percent
annually. This trend is expected to continue as only 19
percent of the potential market has been exploited. Total
annual demand for diesel from tractors is estimated to be
about 6 million tonnes (MT) in 2011.There is no
improvement in fuel efficiency of tractors, and demand
side incentives to improve efficiency are absent. Tractors
continue to use 4.5 litres per hour. The demand for diesel
reaches saturation at 32 Million tonnes (385 TWh) by
2031.
Level 2
Fuel efficiency improves, reducing fuel requirement for
an hour of operation to 89 percent of the present value.
The improvement in specific fuel consumption (SFCs) is
autonomous and by 2031, tractors use 4 litres per hour of
diesel. The demand for diesel reaches saturation at 28 Mt
(342 TWh).
Level 3
In Level 3, fuel efficiency further improves, with only 3.5
litres needed to run for an hour, a 22 percent
improvement from Level 1. The ceiling for maximum SFCs
is tightened by Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS). The
demand for diesel grows to 25 MT (300 TWh) by 2031 and
stabilizes thereafter.
Level 4
Level 1
There is no improvement in fuel efficiency of tractors,
and demand side incentives to improve efficiency are
absent. Tractors continue to use 4.5 litres per hour. The
demand for diesel reaches saturation at 32 Million
tonnes (385 TWh) by 2031.
Level 4 assumes that fuel efficiency of tractors improves
significantly, resulting in fuel savings of 33 percent. BIS
restricts the penetration inefficient tractors with fuel
consumption above specified SFC norms. Deregulation of
diesel prices for agriculture sector also pushes up the sale
of fuel efficient tractors. Demand for diesel in this level
reaches saturation at 21 MT (257 TWh).
Demand for diesel (TWh)
450
385
400
342
350
300
300
257
250
200
150
100
50
59
2007
2012
2017
Level 1
2022
Level 2
2027
Years
2032
Level 3
2037
2042
2047
Level 4
31
2.5.2 ENERGY DEMAND FOR IRRIGATION
The service demand for irrigation from pumping is based
on several factors including the growth of the sector,
cropping patterns, other irrigation facilities, and water
management practices. These influence the ownership
of pump-sets and the average hours of operation of a
pump-set. Efficiency of pump-sets in turn determines the
energy requirement to meet this service demand. This,
along with the demand from mechanization constitutes
the overall demand from the agriculture sector. These
energy demand scenarios along with the choices for fuel
mix for irrigation will determine the aggregate energy
demand for irrigation.
Level 1
This is a pessimistic picture for the sector whereby
electrical pumping efficiency improves by merely 7
percent as pump replacements don't pick due to lack of
support mechanisms, while diesel pumps don't improve
at all. At the same time, higher Hydro Prokav pumps are
employed for greater hours in response to depleting
water table, exacerbating the problem. Micro irrigation
and advanced water management practices are still
employed at less than 5 percent of their potential (Rajput
& Patel, 2012). All this coupled with increase in gross
cropped area (GCA) to meet the requirements of growing
population results in demand growing by 7.25 percent till
2022, reducing to around 2 percent till 2047. Aggregate
demand so obtained is 877 TWh in 2047.
Level 2
In Level 2, electrical pumping input improves by 18
percent and diesel pumping by 8 percent, yielding an
average improvement of 17 percent. Agricultural
Demand Side Management (Ag-DSM), and various
complementary watershed development programmes
meet with limited success and micro-irrigation facilities
are expanded, yielding an overall reduction of 27 percent
from level 1 in 2047. Energy demand grows by 7 percent
till 2022, and growth rate declines to 1.5 percent by 2042
and stabilise thereafter, yielding an aggregate demand of
723 TWh in 2047.
Level 3
Further improvement of 29 percent in pumping input
requirement results from aggressive replacement of old
pumps, slow increase in agricultural tariffs and
improvement in reliability of power supply. Microirrigation is extensively used to 50 percent of its potential.
At the same time, complementary schemes of inter-basin
transfers reduce pumping needs and hours of use. All
these result in a reduction of 45 percent from level 1 in
2047. Energy demand grows by 6.5 percent till 2022, and
the growth rate declines to 1 percent by 2042, yielding an
aggregate demand of 626 TWh in 2047.
Level 4
Level 4 envisages modern practices such as mulching and
vertical farming to optimise on water-use in response to
scarcity of water resources. Government fast-tracks
support to rain-fed areas, and increase in pumping
demand from these areas slows down. Electrical
pumping takes place at optimum loads, reducing losses
and resulting in best efficiencies. Electricity supply is
augmented and monitored for consistency. Diesel pumps
achieve optimum efficiencies too, and weighted
improvement in pumping input is 38 percent. As a result,
energy demand grows by 6 percent till 2022, and growth
rate falls to 0.75 percent in the 2040s. Overall demand
reduces to 549 TWh.
Energy Demand from Irrigation
(TWh)
1,000
900
877
800
723
626
549
700
600
500
400
300
200
164
100
0
2012
2017
Level 1
32
2022
Level 2
2027
2032
Years
Level 3
2037
2042
Level 4
2047
2.5.3 CHOICE OF FUEL FOR IRRIGATION
Pumping is primarily done through electricity. The
number of electrified pump-sets has increased to over 16
million in 2009 from 12 million in 1999. The average
efficiency of pump-sets remains low at 30-35 percent and
offers significant scope for savings. Electricity
consumption in the sector grew at a CAGR of about 7
percent between 2006 and 2012, from 90 Terawatt Hour
(TWh) to 136 TWh. Diesel pump-sets are estimated to
meet about 19 percent of the total pumping energy
demand in 2009 and 17 percent of the total energy
demand in 2011.The aggregate pumping demand in
these years is estimated at 135 TWh and 158 TWh
respectively. The share of each fuel, i.e. diesel, electricity,
and solar PV in overall pumping requirement is defined as
a choice variable, ranging from A to D.
Level A
Level B
85% of the demand is met through electricity and diesel
use is restricted to 10% of the total pumping
requirement, owing to de-regulation of diesel prices and
reduced diesel subsidy to agriculture sector. Solar
penetration reaches 5% as subsidies are channelled
towards solar pumping, particularly in regions with rich
solar insolation.
Level C
Diesel and electrical shares further reduce by 5
percentage points form level B, and solar is benefitted
through large-scale pilot projects, retrofitting and partial
removal of fuel subsidies to agriculture sector.
Level D
In Level A, diesel is used to satisfy about 20% of the total
irrigation demand due to unreliability of electricity
supply and deceleration in the growth of pump-sets
energised from the grid. Solar pumping remains too
expensive to be used.
Diesel is no longer a preferred fuel source due to
unfavourable life-cycle economics in level D. 75% of
demand is met through electricity and 25% through solar,
owing to rapid decline in solar PV module costs and
complete removal of electricity subsidies.
700
Pumping Fuel Demand (TWh)
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2A2B2C2D
2A2B2C2D
2A2B2C2D 2A2B2C2D
2A2B2C2D
2A2B2C2D
Years
2007
2012
2022
Electricity
2032
Diesel
2042
2047
Solar
33
2.6 Replacement of Diesel in
Telecom sector
The Indian telecom sector is the second largest in the
world has increased exponentially over the past decade.
India had 919.17 million mobile subscribers and 4,00,000
telecom towers in 2012 which form the backbone of its
telecom market. 40% of the total telecom towers are
located in urban areas whereas the rest are situated in
rural or semi-urban areas. This ratio is assumed to be
constant over the years. Presently, rural telecom towers
are powered by grid electricity supply for 12 hours a day
and the rest by diesel generators; urban telecom towers
run on grid electricity supply for 20 hours a day and 4
hours a day on diesel generator. This analysis factors rate
of conversion of telecom towers from diesel support to
electricity/clean energy solutions, with similar number of
towers in all levels. (All the numbers indicated here are
for 7.4% CAGR GDP Growth rate assumption).
Level 1
This is a pessimistic scenario where we assume that no
regulations have been enforced and the present energy
consumption scenario continues. Only solar solutions are
considered feasible in this scenario. The percentage of
diesel operated telecom towers replaced by off-grid solar
in 2047 is assumed to be 10% in rural areas and urban
areas.
Level 2
Higher solar penetration rate i.e. 40% in rural areas and
urban areas is assumed by 2047. Higher electrification
34
rate and penetration of renewables helps to reduce
diesel consumption. Wind power solutions replaces 3% in
rural areas and urban areas. Bioenergy solutions
contributes to replacement of 3% in rural and urban
telecom towers and Hydrogen fuel cells is not considered
a commercially feasible option.
Level 3
The penetration rate of off-grid solar plants is assumed to
increase to 70% in rural areas and 50% in urban areas in
2047, whereas Wind power solutions replaces 10% in
rural areas and 7% in urban areas. Bioenergy solutions
contributes to replacement of 6% in rural and 5% in urban
telecom towers and Hydrogen kicks in after 2022
replacing 3% rural and urban telecom towers.
Level 4
This is the most aggressive scenario where all
government regulations are met, and satisfactory quality
of electricity supply is assumed for the country. Telecom
towers run on grid supply and clean energy solutions,
both in urban and rural areas. The percentage of diesel
operated telecom towers replaced by off-grid solar in
2047 is assumed to be 75% in rural areas and 50% in
urban areas; whereas Wind power solutions replaces
10% in rural areas and 7% in urban areas. Bioenergy
solutions contributes to replacement of 10% in rural and
7% in urban telecom towers and Hydrogen replaces 5% in
rural and 15% in urban telecom towers.
Choices Around Renewable and Clean Energy
2.7 Solar
2.7.1 SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER
With 941 MW installed in the country as of 31st March
2012, Solar Photovoltaic (PV) was possibly the smallest in
terms of supply from any one resource. The present
capacity is 2517 MW (May 2014) most of which is located
in the high solar resource states of Gujarat and Rajasthan.
The target for grid connected solar power (PV and CSP)
under the Jawahar Lal Nehru National Solar Mission
(JNNSM) is set at 20 GW by 2022. However given the
present price advantage of PV over CSP it looks likely that
a significant share of the 20 GW would be done by PV.
Going beyond the JNNSM, the National Tariff Policy (NTP)
was amended in 2011 to have a separate solar RPO for all
obligated entities in the country. This is expected to begin
with 0.25% in 2012 and increase to 3% in 2022. According
to MNRE, this translates to a need of roughly 34,000 MW
in 2022. Most of the solar PV plants are based on either
c-Si or thin film technology.
Level 1
Level 2
Level 2 assumes that the capacity addition would follow
the JNNSM trajectory. By 2017, capacity would reach
close to 8 GW in line with the 12th Plan projections, while
by 2022 it would reach 17.9 GW. Capacity addition
increases strongly thereafter culminating in a cumulative
capacity of 150 GW by 2047. This implies a 35 year CAGR
of 16% (2012-2047).
Level 3
Level 3 assumes steady drop in solar PV prices and the
marginal increase in fossil fuels prices thus making Solar
PV economically competitive. Capacity addition in this
scenario would be slightly higher than the JNNSM
resulting in 21.5 GW in 2022. It would cross the 100 GW
mark by 2035 and finally reach 248 GW by 2047.
Level 4
Level 1 assumes that solar PV capacity addition would be
significantly slower than that prescribed under the
JNNSM or as required under the NTP. Costs of solar power
would continue to he high while carbon/externalities of
power generation would continue to remain un-priced.
Similarly reliably integrating variable generation remains
a challenge. Capacity would increase to roughly 11 GW by
2022, peak at 37 GW in 2047.
In this scenario, there is absolutely no barrier (economic,
social or technical) to the growth of solar PV. There is a
sharp drop in solar and wind prices coupled with
significant increases in fossil fuel prices, especially coal.
Fossil fuel externalities are priced. Smart grids, Demand
response and storage are in place. Similarly,
forecasting/dispatch and reliable grid integration is taken
care of. Energy security is consciously factored in energy
planning and land is not a constraint. In this level, capacity
increases to 60 GW by 2022 in line with the new target
adopted by the Government. By 2042 it reaches 340 GW
and by 2047 a high of 479 GW.
600
479
Capacity (GW)
500
400
300
248
200
100
150
1
37
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
Years
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
35
2.7.2 CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWER (CSP)
It was the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission
(JNNSM) that kick started the CSP program in India.
Under the phase 1 (2010-13) of the mission, 50% of the
allotted capacity was earmarked for CSP. A total of 470
MW were bid out. The first large scale plant of 50 MW
was commissioned very recently in the country. Phase 2
of the mission (2013-17) has earmarked roughly 30% of
the capacity for CSP. Going beyond the JNNSM, the
National Tariff Policy was amended (2011) to have a
separate solar Renewable Purchase Obligation (PV+CSP)
for all obligated entities. This is expected to (began with
0.25% in 2012) increase to 3% in 2022. According to
Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, this translates to
a need of roughly 34,000 MW in 2022. With reduction in
cost of technology and the storage benefit, CSP can
contribute a significant portion to the RE share. While
CSP is presently costlier than PV, its ability for storage and
supporting the grid with ancillary services is of value.
Similarly CSP also allows the possibility of hybrid plants
with natural gas or coal.
Level 2
Level 2 assumes that there is slow but consistent growth
in capacity addition of CSP. It reaches 4 GW by 2022, i.e.
20% of the total JNNSM target for grid connected solar.
The final capacity in this level in year 2047 is 46 GW
resulting in a generation of 181 TWh.
Level 3
Level 3 assumes that CSP costs come down significantly
and that there are no limitations on plant size etc.
Improved transmission and HVDC lines together, result in
faster capacity addition. 10.8 GW is reached by 2027
increasing thrice to 34 GW in the next ten years and
culminating in 90 GW by 2047. Generation by 2047
reaches 357 TWh.
Level 4
Solar CSP becomes one of the prime sources of electricity
generation; extended storage facility helps CSP reach
maximum potential. Costs of solar system and storage fall
as higher temperature technologies are introduced.
Supply grows rapidly meeting the National Action Plan on
Climate Change targets by 2020 resulting in a capacity of
6.7 GW by 2022 and 187 GW in 2047, a CAGR of 15% over
30 years. Generation by 2047 reaches 746 TWh.
Level 1
Cumulative CSP Capacity (GW)
Level 1 assumes that only 1 GW would be operational in
the next 5 years (mainly due to higher costs) beyond
which there will be slight increase in generation capacity
reaching a maximum of 9.5 GW by 2047. Deployment
increases slowly till 2032 after which is starts reducing.
After 2042 there is no additional deployment. The
cumulative capacity in 2047 would be 9.5 GW and
generation would be 35 TWh.
187.0
200
150
100
90.0
50
46.0
0
9.5
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
Years
Level 1
36
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
2.7.3 DISTRIBUTED SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER
With an average of 300 sunny days and high solar
insolation, distributed SPV has the ability to play an
important role in the coming years. Distributed SPV
systems can reduce the load on utilities by reducing the
electricity peaks, reducing transmission and distribution
losses and improving productivity. Distributed SPV
(particularly the rooftop segment) is expected to grow
significantly in the coming years due to increase in
economic viability for certain consumer segments
(commercial, industrial and high-use residential) in
particular geographical areas in India. While many states
have already put in place favourable net metering
policies, some state electricity regulatory commissions
support rooftop projects through the feed in tariff route.
India could install 3 - 5 GW of distributed solar in the next
three - five years. Increased clarity on technical interconnection, safety and metering standards would pave
the way for faster deployment.
Level 1
Level 1 assumes that there is a very little improvement in
distributed PV installations in the residential sector and
negligible growth in the industrial and commercial
sectors. The penetration rate is as low as 0.6% of
households in 2047 resulting in total capacity of 9 GW.
Lack of clarity on technical and safety standards coupled
with weak policy regulatory framework hampers growth.
The electricity generated in 2047 would be 15 TWh.
increase the penetration from 0.01 % in 2012 to 0.6% of
households by 2022, with the residential sector
remaining the major contributor with a penetration rate
of 3% of households by 2047. The total capacity reaches
47 GW by 2047 which would generate 79 TWh of
electricity.
Level 3
Level 3 assumes that with increase in urbanization the
peak demand for electricity would also grow, leading to
an increase in penetration levels to 7% of households by
2047. This would also force industrial, commercial and
institutional spaces to adopt distributed PV's lead to a
quick increase in capacities. The total capacity will
increase to 110 GW by 2047 and electricity generated
would be 184.5 TWh.
Level 4
Level 4 assumes that there are favourable policies for
supporting growth in distributed SPV and there is ample
rooftop space available in coordination with Solar Water
Heaters. The penetration levels are as high as 17% of
households leading to rapid growth in the residential as
well as commercial sectors. Increased penetration levels
leads to a total of 263 GW of capacity and ~ 439 TWh of
electricity generation. Smart grids, advanced inverters
and favourable storage costs aid this process. India also
meets its 40GW rooftop target by 2022.
Level 2
Cumulative Capacity (GW)
Level 2 assumes that a significant push for PV Rooftop
under the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission will
300
263
250
200
150
110
100
50
47
0.03
9
0
2012
Level 1
2017
2022
2027
Years
Level 2
2032
2037
Level 3
2042
2047
Level 4
37
2.7.4 SOLAR WATER HEATERS
Today, India ranks fifth in terms of the number of SWHs
installation, accounting for mere 1.6% of the total
heating capacity through solar water heaters around the
world (REN21:Global Status Report 2014). The total
installed collector area has increased from 119,000 sq. m
in 1982 to 11 Million sq. m 2013. This sector has been
incentivized by capital subsidies and soft loans in the
past, with commercial and industrial sectors contributing
to 80% in 2001. But, presently residential sector is the
largest sector contributing 80% of installation/sales for
SWHs. Introduction of mandates for the building sector,
provision of capital subsidies and soft loans/ tax rebates
have together helped in the growth of the sector. The
Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission has proposed
an ambitious target of achieving 20 million sq. m of
collector area by 2022. This technology can greatly
relieve peak loads of power demand for heating water in
winter.
Level 2
Level 2 assumes that the JNNSM target of 20 million sq. m
is nearly met by 2022, with residential sector remaining
the major contributor with a penetration rate of 7% HHs
by 2047. The total collector space reaches 138 million sq.
m. in 2047. The total Solar Water Heaters capacity in 2047
reaches 97 GW.
Level 3
Level 3 assumes that with the increase in urbanization the
demand for hot water rises. Also, strict mandates for
industrial, commercial and institutional spaces lead to
quick increase in SWH capacities and the penetration
level increases to 12.5%. The total collector space grows
to ~247 million sq. m. The total Solar Water Heaters
capacity in 2047 reaches 173 GW.
Level 4
Level 1
Level 4 assumes that there are no economic and social
constraints and there is ample rooftop space available in
coordination with rooftop PV. The penetration levels are
as high as 20% leading to rapid growth in SWH
installations. Increase in hot water demand leads to a
collector space aggregating to 399 million sq. m. For
comparison, 10% of Chinese Households are already
using SWHs and the number is expected to rise to 30% by
2020. The total Solar Water Heaters capacity in 2047
reaches 280 GW.
Level 1 assumes that although there is a gradual
improvement in SWH installations in the residential
sector there is very little growth in the industrial and
commercial sectors. The penetration rate remains low
i.e. 2% Households, which was 0.03% in 2012. The
resulting collector area rises to 32 million sq m from 6
million sq. m in 2012. The total Solar Water Heaters
capacity in 2047 reaches 23 GW from 4.2 GW in 2012.
300
280
250
Capacity (GW)
200
173
150
97
100
50
23
4.22
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
Years
Level 1
38
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
2.8 Wind
2.8.1 ONSHORE WIND POWER
With 23444 MW of wind power installed in the country as
on 31st April 2015, it constitutes the mainstay of
renewable power in the country, contributing to 65.5% of
the total renewable energy capacity most of which is
located in the southern and western high solar resource
states of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Gujarat
and Rajasthan. The target for grid connected wind power
under the 12th plan is set for an additional 15 GW. With
regard to wind power potential, while the revised official
figures stands at 102 GW, various studies point out that
the actual potential could be anywhere between 500 1000 GW which indicates that resource availability is not
a constraint for wind power development. Availability of
land, transmission infrastructure and reliable integration
of variable generation would be key factors that may limit
the uptake of wind power in the future.
2022 it would reach 54 GW. Capacity addition increases
strongly thereafter culminating in a cumulative capacity
of 202 GW by 2047 and the corresponding electricity
generation would be 495.3 TWh. This implies a 35 year
CAGR of 7.26% (2007-2047). Additional investments to
strengthen transmission and evacuation systems would
be put in place. Development of a Green Transmission
Corridor has already been sanctioned very recently.
Level 3
Level 3 assumes a capacity addition in this scenario to be
slightly higher than the 12/13th plan requirements
resulting in 62 GW in 2022. However this would still not
be enough to meet the NAPCC targets of 2020. It would
cross the 100 GW mark just before 2030 and finally reach
270 GW by 2047. The resulting generation would be to
the tune of 665 TWh. Significant repowering efforts
would be undertaken in this level and beyond. The
electricity generation in 2047 would be 665.3 TWh.
Level 1
Level 1 assumes that wind power capacity addition would
be significantly slower than that prescribed under the
12th Plan or as required to meet guiding National Action
Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) targets. Reliably
integrating variable generation would remain a
challenge. The 12th plan addition would only be around
8.5 GW assuming the same annual addition as in 201213. 13th Plan addition would be slightly higher at 10 GW.
Capacity would increase to roughly 35.8 GW by 2022, and
increase to about 67 GW by 2047. The electricity
generated in 2047 would rise to 161.8 TWh from 32.2
TWh in 2012.
Level 4
In this scenario, there is absolutely no barrier to the
growth of onshore wind power. There is a sharp drop in
wind prices coupled with significant increases in fossil
fuel prices, especially coal. Smart grids, Demand
r e s p o n s e a n d s t o ra g e i s i n p l a c e . S i m i l a r l y,
forecasting/dispatch and reliable grid integration is taken
care of. Energy security is consciously factored in energy
planning and land is not a constraint. Capacity increases
to 82 GW (172 TWh) by 2022 in line with the NAPCC
requirement of 15% by 2020 (excluding large hydro) and
recent target announcement (60 GW by 2022). By 2040 it
reaches ~300 GW and by 2047 a high of 410 GW. The
corresponding generation in 2047 is 1007 TWh.
Level 2
Level 2 assumes that by 2017, capacity would reach close
to 32 GW in line with the 12th Plan projections, while by
Wind On Shore Cumulative Capacity (GW)
450
410
400
350
300
270
250
200
202
150
100
50
67
17
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
Year
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
39
2.8.2 OFFSHORE WIND POWER
Offshore wind power is a potential source of electricity
generation primarily due to better quality wind resources
along with the absence of land constraints. However as of
today the costs of installation and operation are almost
twice as more than onshore wind power. These costs are
set to decline with technological improvement including
increased hub heights, turbine capacity, capacity
utilization factors and floating turbines. Ministry of New
and Renewable Energy (MNRE) has come out with a draft
offshore wind policy in 2013. The policy suggests setting
up of 2 GW of capacity in the southern coast to begin
with. While a detailed resource potential for the country
is yet to be done, some studies suggest that it could be in
the range of 350 - 500 GW which indicates that the
resource availability is not a constraint for wind power
development. Higher costs, transmission infrastructure
and reliable integration of variable generation would be
key factors that may limit the uptake of offshore wind
power in the future.
Level 2
Level 2 assumes that the MNRE policy target of 2 GW is
achieved by 2025. Without any further improvement in
technology and offshore wind potential assessment, the
sector witnesses a gradual growth in capacity addition
reaching 19.5 GW by 2047. The corresponding electricity
generation in 2047 would be 64.3 TWh.
Level 3
Level 3 assumes that with the improvement in potential
offshore site identification and cost reductions, India
would gradually build up its offshore wind capacity to 2
GW in 2022 meeting MNRE offshore wind policy targets,
35 GW by 2040 and 62 GW by 2047. This results in roughly
205 TWh of generation in 2047. Significant investments
would be needed in the transmission and evacuation
systems.
Level 4
Level 1
Level 4 assumes that offshore wind power does not face
any economic or physical constraints and hence sees a
rapid growth in capacity addition. Under the level 4
assumptions, India would follow an aggressive strategy
towards construction and operation of offshore wind
farms leading to generation of 141 GW by 2047. The
resulting generation would be roughly 468 TWh.
Off Shore Wind Cumulative Capacity (GW)
Level 1 assumes that offshore wind takes off very slowly
due to higher cost and other barriers especially with
regard to regulatory and associated clearances etc.
Installations of identified capacity of 2 GW along the
southern coast are delayed and completed after 2030.
Capacity by 2047 is 4 GW and electricity generated is 13
TWh.
160
140
141
120
100
80
62
60
40
19.5
20
0
4
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
Year
Level 1
40
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
2.9 Hydroelectric Power
2.9.1 LARGE HYDROELECTRIC POWER STATIONS
As per the Central Electricity Authority (CEA), India has
nearly 150 GW of economically exploitable large hydro
potential. This is available mainly in the Brahmaputra,
Indus and Ganga river basins, at a load factor of 60% or
lower. Of this, around 39.41 GW is currently installed.
Nearly 94 GW is estimated to be available from pumped
hydro schemes, across 56 sites. At present, 9 schemes
with an aggregate installed capacity 41.63 GW exist in
India, out of which 2.6 GW is operated in pumping mode.
Additionally, 1.08 GW is under construction2. For the
purpose of presenting the trajectories, the capacity
added through pumped hydro schemes have not been
accounted for, as their usage is dependent on a systemslevel analysis of the extent of Renewable Energy
penetration in the grid.
Through various measures, the Government of India
(GoI) aims to realize 100% hydropower potential of the
country by 2025 – 26. To this effect, CEA has undertaken
feasibility and ranking studies in order to determine the
feasible completion of hydro projects that are under
development, in the 12th and 13th plans. Large hydro: As
per estimates provided by CEA and the Working Group on
Power for 12th Five Year Plan, it is assumed that up to 9.2
GW of large hydro schemes would yield benefits in the
12th plan, and 12 GW in the 13th plan (2047 Installed
capacity: 75 GW). The amount of electricity generated in
2047 would be 263 TWh.
Level 3
In addition to achievement of government plans, Level 3
includes the benefits from completion of Renovation and
Modernization (R&M) and Life Extension (LE) efforts. This
results in additional capacity of 4.06 GW across 12th Five
Year Plan, assumed to continue over the 13th Plan.
Beyond the 13th Plan, past trends in capacity additions
are expected to continue till 2047 (2047 Installed
capacity: 105 GW). The corresponding electricity
generation in 2047 would be 368 TWh.
Level 1
In this pessimistic trajectory, it is assumed that the
current plants continue to operate with scheduled
maintenance efforts through the period of analysis. Due
to unresolved constraints on issues of large-scale
ecological damage, resettlement and rehabilitation, only
plants which have been commissioned and expected to
yield likely benefits during the 12th plan are accounted
for in capacity addition till 2017. No new construction is
assumed after this, and installed capacity increases to 49
GW in 2047 from 41 GW in 2012. No new pumped hydro
schemes are completed. The electricity generated in
2047 would become 171.8 TWh which was 143.8 TWh in
2012.
Level 4
In this highly optimistic scenario, technology
advancements are assumed to result in exploitation of
full potential of large hydro. Advances in technology
development, and R&D efforts in de-silting, integration of
regional grids, forecasting etc. are assumed to take place.
Benefits from advances in R&M and LE are assumed to
increase to 20 GW per FYP for the period of analysis, to
reach up to 150 GW (100% of potential) by 2047 which
will generate 526 TWh of electricity.
Level 2
With the aim to accelerate hydro power development in
India, the Ministry of Power (MoP) introduced the
National Policy on Hydropower Development in 1998.
Cumulative Capacity (GW)
160
150
140
120
105
100
80
60
75
41
49
40
20
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
Year
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
41
2.9.2 SMALL HYDROELECTRIC POWER STATIONS
With a capacity of 4055 MW of Small Hydro Power (SHP)
stations installed in the country as of 31st May 2015, it
constitutes nearly 11% of installed renewable energy
capacity. Presently the capacity stands at 4055 MW (31st
May 2015). So far, 898 SHP projects with an aggregate
capacity of 3411 MW have been set up and 348 projects
aggregating to 1309 MW are under implementation.
While SHP is already cost competitive with conventional
power, increased efficiencies and capacity utilization
factors would make it even more viable in the future. In
order to further enhance the total power generation
from SHP's it is essential to harness all potential sites.
According to the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy,
the focus of the SHP programme is to lower the cost of
equipment, increase its reliability and set up projects in
areas which give the maximum advantage in terms of
capacity utilisation.
Level 2
Level 2 assumes that the 12th five-year plan target of 2.1
GW of new capacity is met by 2017 and a further 3.5 GW
is added in the 13th plan to reach a cumulative capacity of
8.9 GW by 2022. Capacity addition slows down after this
point and reaches the ultimate capacity of 15 GW 2047
and the amount of electricity generated would be 16
TWh.
Level 3
Level 3 assumes an optimistic view by meeting not only
the 12th and 13th Plan targets but a slightly faster
deployment resulting in 9.8 GW in 2022. By 2032, the
complete present projected potential of roughly 20 GW is
met and maintained thereafter till 2047. Resulting
generation is approximately 77 TWh.
Level 1
Level 4
Level 1 assumes that although SHP is a low cost
renewable energy resource, capacity addition is lower
than expected in the 12/13th plan periods reaching only
6.5 GW by 2022. It further increases to 7.5 GW by 2027
and plateaus at 9 GW from about 2032-2047. Essentially
capacity addition is very slow and only takes care of
retirement to maintain the roughly committed capacity
upto the 13th plan. Environmental and social concerns
over the development of SHP limits capacity addition.
The corresponding electricity generated in 2047 would
be 3.7 TWh in comparison with 0.7 TWh in 2012.
Level 4 assumes the resource potential is significantly
augmented and that capacity deployment increases
rapidly. It reaches 10.8 GW in 2022, in line with National
Action Plan on Climate Change expectations and further
increases to 29.9 GW by 2047. Both these efforts and
enhanced capacity utilization lead to a quick increase in
overall SHP generation resulting in 115 TWh by 2047.
35
29.9
Cumulative Capacity (GW)
30
25
20
20
15.1
15
9.05
10
5
3.395
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
Years
Level 1
42
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
2.10 Nuclear Power
The currently installed nuclear power generation
capacity is 5.78 GW and it contributes 3% of the total
electricity generation. There are 21 operating reactors in
seven sites. Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors (PHWR),
which use natural uranium, account for almost all of the
present installed capacity. These reactors operated at
Plant Load Factor (PLF) of 50-60% because of uranium
supply bottlenecks. However, recent uranium imports
have allowed the PLF to increase to 80%.
Presently, to run 9 of the 21 operating reactors, India
relies on uranium imports. Uranium is assumed to be
available for imports until 2047. Significant new nuclear
build rates would require additional power plant
locations, which is a critical factor. In the past there has
been difficulty in siting these plants. This forms a vital
lever in the differing numbers for growth of this source of
power under the four levels.
Level 1
Level 1 assumes that the present reactors under
construction 4.3 GW are completed and commissioned.
This will take the cumulative nuclear capacity to 9.98 GW
by the end of Twelfth Plan. However, the present public
sentiment regarding nuclear power results in limited
capacity addition in nuclear power, while a few of the
older reactors get decommissioned. Thus, the
cumulative nuclear power capacity reaches only about
11.36 GW by 2047 from 4.68 GW in 2012. The electricity
generated would rise to 79.7 TWh in 2047 from 26.7 TWh
in 2012.
Level 2
Level 2 assumes that new reactors are developed on the
eight new sites identified. The government's in principle
approval exists for setting up 700 MW PHWR reactors in
five sites, leading to 8.4 GW of capacity addition in this
technology. Further, Light Water Reactors (LWRs) are
built on four sites. Also, two more Fast Breeder Reactors
(FBRs) with a total capacity of 1 GW are commissioned.
Thus, the total nuclear capacity reaches 26.11 GW by
2047. The corresponding electricity generated in 2047
would be 183.1 TWh.
Level 3
Level 3 assumes that all the new PHWR sites are fully
utilized with new reactors. Six reactors are assumed per
site. In addition, the spent fuel from thermal reactors is
used to build 2.5 GW Fast Breeder Reactors. Thus, new
reactors are developed taking the installed capacity to
45.01 GW by 2047 and the electricity generated would be
315.6 TWh.
Level 4
Over and above Level 3, this highly optimistic scenario
assumes that three new sites are identified, which can
accommodate about 15 GW through new PHWRs and
LWRs. Further, up to 4.5 GW of FBRs are developed. In this
scenario, the nuclear capacity reaches 78.06 GW by 2047.
The corresponding electricity generation in 2047 would
be 547.4 TWh.
90
547.4
80
500
400
315.6
300
200
100
183.1
79.7
26.7
Cumulative Capacity (GW)
Electricity Generation (TWh)
600
78
70
60
50
45
40
30
26
20
11
10
0
2012
2017
Level 1
2022
2027
2032
Years
Level 2
Level 3
2037
2042
2047
0
5
2012
Level 4
2017
Level 1
2022
2027
Level 2
2032
Level 3
2037
2042
2047
Level 4
43
2.11 Bioenergy
2.11.1 BIOMASS RESIDUE PRODUCTION
AND END-USAGE
The components that presently make up bioenergy
production in India are agricultural residue, forest
residue, sugarcane molasses-based bioethanol, Jatropha
biodiesel and biogas. 99% of the present bioenergy
production relates to agriculture residue and forestry
residue (214 and 150 million tons/year). Bioenergy
production is already estimated to be about 1843
TWhr/year (25% of the total energy consumption of
India). A large part of biomass residue is used for
cooking. Part of agri-residue (about 16 million tons/yr) is
used for power generation (2.5 GW). The agri-residue
that accounts for bioenergy is 67% of the residue that is
not used as animal fodder and the other 33% is used for
other applications. This split is maintained in future as
well for all the four levels. The agri-residue productivity
is projected to increase from 0 to 0.75% (annual) across
the four levels. As for forestry residue, 180-200 million
tons/year is rated to be the sustainable limit for recovery
from forests and it is extended across the four levels
accordingly.
Level 1
The split of non-fodder agri-residue for household
cooking decreases from 46% to 25% by 2027 and to 3% by
2047. The agri-residue split for power generation is
increased from the present 5% to 16%. This relates to
power generation increasing from the present 2.5 GW to
7.8 GW by 2047. Liquid transportation fuel from agriresidue begins to be produced commercially from 2027
and the split reaches 6% by 2047. This leaves the
proportion for other miscellaneous energy applications
to change from the present 16% to 42% by 2047.
Level 2
0.25% annual growth rate is considered for the agriresidue productivity. The forestry residue is projected to
increase to 174 million tons/year. The split of non-fodder
agri-residue for household cooking decreases to 18% by
2027 and to 3% by 2047. The agri-residue split for power
generation is increased from the present 5% to 27. This
results in power generation increasing from the present
2.5 GW to 20 GW by 2047. Liquid transportation fuel
from agri-residue begins to be produced commercially
from 2022 and the split reaches 12% by 2047. This leaves
the other energy applications split to increase to 25% by
2047
Level 3
The agri-residue productivity is projected to increase at
an annual growth rate of 0.5%. The forestry residue is
projected to increase to 190 million tons/year. The split
of non-fodder agri-residue for household cooking
decreases to 12% by 2027 and to 2% by 2047. The agriresidue split for power generation is increased from the
present 5% to 43. This relates to power generation
increasing from the present 2.5 GW to 42 GW by 2047.
Liquid transportation fuel from agri-residue begins to be
produced commercially from 2020 and the split reaches
22% by 2047. This leaves the other energy applications
split to increase to 30% by 2027 and decrease to 0.5% by
2047.
Level 4
The agri-residue productivity is projected to increase at
an annual growth rate of 0.75%. The forestry residue is
projected to increase to 200 million tons/year. The split
of non-fodder agri-residue for household cooking
decreases to 8% by 2027 and to 1% by 2047. The agriresidue split for power generation increases from the
present 5% to a maximum of 45 by 2032-37 and
decreases to 36% by 2047 as the conversion to liquid fuels
become more pronounced. Liquid transportation fuel
from agri-residue begins to be produced commercially
from 2017 and the split increases to 30% by 2047.
Projection of Agri-Residue and End-Usage
44
2.11.2 FIRST AND SECOND GENERATION BIOFUELS
Government of India initiated mandated biofuel
blending programsfrom 2003 under the National
Biofuels Mission. These programs specify blending of
biofuels (5%, 10%, 20%) with fossil fuels in a time
bound and phased manner across India. The 'National
Policy on Biofuels' was released in 2009. Feed stocks
identified are molasses for production of ethanol and
tree-borne non-edible oilseed crops like Jatropha and
Pongamia for production of biodiesel from marginal
lands. To increase biofuel production that has larger
scope, lignocellulosic liquid fuels from agri-residue and
biodiesel from extensive Jatropha/Pongamia cultivation
form wastelands are being pursued. These
technologies have been estimated to take varying times
(2017-2027) to be commercially ready and follow
different rates of development across the four levels.As
of now, only sugarcane molasses is used in India for
bioethanol production. However as the consumption of
sugar in India is expected to increase in future,
sugarbeet cultivation is envisaged and its molasses is
projectedto contribute to ethanol production.Sweet
sorghum is also considered as a feedstock for
bioethanol.
Level 1
Sugarcane cultivation area is kept constant at 4.5 Mha.
Sugarbeet and sweet sorghum cultivation areas are
projected to increase gradually to 10,000 ha (by 2047).
As for biodiesel from Jatropha/Pongamia, cultivation
wasteland is projected to increase to 0.45 Mha (by 2047)
and biodiesel production to 0.25 mtoe/year.
Lignocellulosic liquid fuels from agri-residue begin to be
commercially ready from 2027. The fuel production
reaches 2.9 mtoe/year by 2047. Total first and second
generation biofuel production reaches 3.5 mtoe/year by
2047.
wasteland biomass begin to be commercially ready from
2022. The fuel production reaches 8.3 mtoe/year by
2047. Total first and second generation biofuel
production reaches 10.6 mtoe/year by 2047.
Level 3
Sugarcane cultivation area is kept constant at 5.2 Mha.
Sugarbeet and sweet sorghum cultivation areas are
projected to increase gradually to 20,000 ha (by 2047).
Total first generation ethanol from sugar crops reaches
0.9 mtoe saturating by 2027. As for biodiesel from
Jatropha/Pongamia, cultivation wasteland is projected to
increase to 3.5 Mha (by 2047) and biodiesel production
to 4.9 mtoe/year. Lignocellulosic liquid fuels from agriresidue residue and wasteland biomass begin to be
commercially ready from 2020. The fuel production
reaches 21.3 mtoe/year by 2047. Total first and second
generation biofuel production reaches 27 mtoe/year by
2047.
Level 4
Sugarcane cultivation area is kept constant at 5.5 Mha.
Sugarbeet and sweet sorghum cultivation areas are
projected to increase gradually to 25,000 ha (by 2047).
Total first generation ethanol from sugar crops reaches
1.26 mtoe saturating by 2027. As for biodiesel from
Jatropha/Pongamia, cultivation wasteland is projected to
increase to 5.25 Mha (by 2047) and biodiesel production
to 9 mtoe/year. Lignocellulosic liquid fuels from agriresidue and wasteland biomass begin to be commercially
ready from 2017. The fuel production reaches 39
mtoe/year by 2047. Total first and second generation
biofuel production reaches 50 mtoe/year by 2047.
Level 2
Sugarcane cultivation area is kept constant at 5 Mha.
Sugarbeet and sweet sorghum cultivation areas are
projected to increase gradually to 15,000 ha. As for
biodiesel from Jatropha/Pongamia, cultivation
wasteland is projected to increase to 1.7 Mha (by 2047)
and biodiesel production to 1.7 mtoe/year.
Lignocellulosic liquid fuels from agri-residue and
Projection of First and Second Generation Biofuels
45
2.11.3 ALGAE BIOFUEL PRODUCTION
Advanced biofuels (beyond first and second generation)
have been considered as they present a large scope for
use as transportation fuel. Microalgal biofuels and
macroalgal (seaweed) fuels (offshore) have been
considered under this scenario. They qualify
theoretically by resource assessment to cater to the
magnitude of India's transportation fuel needs. These
are still in the R&D stage and are considered to be in a
relatively earlier stage of development compared to
lignocellulosic biofuels. Sea water has been considered
to be the appropriate water source. One technology
(microalgae) has been considered to illustrate the
extensive production, while the other (macroalgae) has
been projected for representative purpose with lower
numbers. The numbers may be used interchangeably
depending on whichever technology (or combination
thereof) matures better. This analysis captures future
scenarios of this emerging technology.
Level 1
The microalgal technology sees barely any development
with commercial production reaching only 5,000
tons/year by 2047. An area productivity of 25 g/m2/day
and lipid content of 18% has been considered. The
cultivation land area extends to a mere 500 ha by 2047.
Offshore macroalgae also sees only negligible
development with fuel production reaching just 2,000
tons/year by 2047.
Level 2
The microalgal fuel development is still slow with
commercial production starting at a lowly 1,000
tons/year by 2027. An area productivity of 35 g/m2/day
has been considered. Lipid content is taken to be 23%.
46
The cultivation land area extends to 5,000 ha by 2047.
This relates to microalgal biofuel production of 0.09
mtoe/year by 2047. Offshore macroalgae is modelled to
reach a productivity of 35 g/m2/day by 2047 and result in
a modest 0.05 mtoe/year liquid fuel production by 2047.
Level 3
The microalgal fuel development is assumed to be
promising with commercial production starting from
2022 at 40,000 tons/year. An area productivity of 55
g/m2/day has been considered and Lipid content
envisaged at 28%. Microalgae cultivation extends to a
land area of 0.35 Mha (2047). This relates to microalgal
biofuel production of 12 mtoe/year by 2047. Offshore
macroalgae also picks up with commercial production
starting from 2022. 55 g/m2/day productivity has been
considered with energy yield of fuel conversion process
increase to 52% by 2047 from the present 20% as in
lignocellulosic liquid fuels. Liquid fuel production from
macroalgae reaches 0.7 mtoe/year by 2047.
Level 4
In Level 4, a highly optimistic scenario is assumed,
wherein microalgal fuel is envisioned to become
commercially viable starting from 2020. Areal
productivity is considered to be 75 g/m2/day with lipid
content of 38%. Microalgae cultivation extends to an
area of 0.65 Mha by 2047 and biofuel production
progresses appreciably to 41.3 mtoe/year by 2047.
Offshore macroalgae becomes commercially viable by
2022. An area productivity of 75 g/m2/day has been
considered. The energy yield of fuel conversion process
is projected to increase to 60% by 2047. This relates to a
macroalgal fuel production of 2.2 mtoe/year by 2047.
2.12 Energy from Municipal Solid Waste
Level 1
Level 1 assumes that there will be no capacity additions
and hence MSW based WtE capacity will remain at a level
of 96MW. There will be no capacity additions even
beyond 2017, primarily due to lack of inter agency
coordination and favourable policies. Other key adverse
factor will be limited understanding of technical issues
involved in construction, operational and environmental
aspects of MSW based WtE projects. Once these projects
have lived their life, there will be no MSW based WtE
projects, by 2037.
Level 2
Level 2 assumes that the capacity addition happen in line
with 12th plan targets resulting in 153MW installed
capacity by end of 12th Plan. Most of it will still be based
on mixed MSW. With improving segregation levels and
Government's focus on WtE, by 2047:
l 25% of segregated urban organic MSW will yield 0.36
Mtoe of biogas
l 20% of segregated rural organic MSW will yield
0.28Mtoe of biogas
l 18% of total 'waste to electricity generation'
potential will be realized resulting in approx.
3,550MW installed power generation capacity.
l 18% of segregated urban combustibles will be used
as fuel yielding 2.36Mtoe of thermal energy.
The policies and incentives get aligned. Rural areas adopt
organic MSW based gas as a key energy option. However
in urban areas, evolving technologies like combined heat
and power still does not get any traction. By 2047:
l 50% of segregated urban organic MSW will yield 0.72
Mtoe of biogas
l 40% of segregated rural organic MSW will yield
0.55Mtoe of biogas
l 30% of total 'waste to electricity generation' potential
will be realized resulting in approx. 5,850MW
installed power generation capacity
32% of segregated urban combustibles will be used as
fuel yielding 4.4Mtoe of thermal energy.
Level 4
In this scenario, there are absolutely no barrier
(economic, social or technical) to the growth of MSW
based WtE. Inter agency conflicts are also resolved. WtE
gets enhanced attention coupled with significant
increases in fossil fuel prices, especially coal. Fossil fuel
externalities are priced. Energy security is consciously
factored in energy planning. In this level, by 2047:
l
75% of segregated urban organic MSW will yield 1.09
Mtoe of biogas
l
60% of segregated rural organic MSW will yield
0.83Mtoe of biogas
l
30% of total 'waste to electricity generation'
potential will be realized resulting in approx.
5,850MW installed power generation capacity
l
63% of segregated urban combustibles will be used
as fuel yielding 8.44Mtoe of thermal energy.
Fuel Availability (TCal/ day)
Waste to Energy (WtE) projects based on Municipal Solid
Waste (MSW), installed in the country as of 31st March
2015 is just 154 MW. MSW is a heterogeneous mix of
combustibles, organic matter, inerts and moisture.
Energy generation through biochemical conversion or
combustion will depend on the levels of segregation and
collection efficiency of MSW. This is a key focus area of
Ministry of Urban Development as well as Urban local
bodies (ULBs) across the country and hence it is assumed
under all scenarios that by 2047:
l Urban areas will have MSW collection efficiency of
approx. 100% and segregation levels of approx. 90%.
l Rural areas will have MSW collection efficiency of
approx. 100% and segregation levels of approx. 70%.
231.10
250
200
120.17
150
64.71
100
50
0.00
0
0
2012
2017
Level 3
52,441.15
60,000
50,000
34,699.39
40,000
30,000
17,355.77
20,000
10,000
0.00
0.00
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Level 1
Level 3
2032
2037
Level 3
2042
2047
Level 4
5,854
3,545
96
2012
2047
Level 1
Year
Level 2
2027
Year
Level 2
Level 1
Waste to Power Cpapcity (MW)
Biogas Generation (G Cal/ day)
Level 3 assumes that Government and ULBs emphasize
on MSW based WtE as a key resource recovery option.
2022
0
2017
2022
2027
Year
Level 2
2032
2037
Level 3
2042
2047
Level 4
Level 4
47
2.13 Hydrogen
As the energy demand in India increases over the years,
the potential of various alternative sources will require to
be exploited. Hydrogen fuel will emerge as a powerful
and stable source by the year 2020 and will be available
for production, storage and supply chain for use in the
transport sector by then. Hydrogen fuel will prove to be a
cleaner source of energy once Carbon Capture and
Storage (CCS) technology has been fully developed.
According to the Hydrogen Roadmap developed by IEA,
Biomass Gasification, the technology with the least
amount of emissions and maximum accessibility to
feedstock will have a major share in the total demand for
Hydrogen fuel. Although hydrogen as a fuel has not taken
off as yet in India, in the following analysis weighted
predictions have been made by taking into consideration
the various hydrogen production plans made in the
National Hydrogen Energy Roadmap developed by the
Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) under
four scenarios upto 2047 on the demand of hydrogen fuel
and its breakdown into the various technologies of
production fulfilling the demand.
Level 1
Level 3
Under this scenario, a higher share of the entire hydrogen
fuel demand is fulfilled by electrolysis and electrochemical technology and a more drastic decline is
observed in the usage of natural gas reforming.
Electrolysis takes up 50% of the demand while 40% is
taken by coal gasification, 5% by natural gas reforming
and 5% by Biomass gasification.
Level 4
This scenario considers a high upgradation of electrolysis
technology and CCS technology is installed in all coal
gasification plants. 80% of the entire hydrogen fuel
demand is fulfilled by electrolysis, 5% by coal gasification,
5% by natural gas reforming and 10% by biogas
reforming.
120
120
100
100
80
60
40
20
0
80
60
40
20
0
Level 1
Coal Reforming
48
This scenario considers the advent of CCS technology in
India and a slight penetration of electrolysis of water and
electro-chemical water-splitting technology using
renewable resources. At the same time a decline in the
usage of natural gas reforming technology to reduce the
burden on imports will be observed. 10% of the demand
will be taken up by the electrolysis technology, 30% by
coal gasification and 60% by natural gas reforming.
Technology Penetration in 2047
Technology Penetration in 2022
This scenario assumes maximum penetration of
hydrogen production methods like coal gasification and
natural gas reforming because of the availability of the
basic resources in the country and the commercial
feasibility of these technologies. 95% of the demand for
hydrogen fuel is fulfilled by coal gasification and 50% by
natural gas reforming.
Level 2
Level 2
Gas reforming
Level 3
Electrolysis
Level 4
Biogas
Level 1
Coal Reforming
Level 2
Gas reforming
Level 3
Electrolysis
Level 4
Biogas
Choices Around Conventional Energy
2.14 Gas
2.14.1 DOMESTIC GAS PRODUCTION
India has 26 sedimentary basins out of which 15 sedimentary
basins have been surveyed to some degree of satisfaction.
The prognosticated hydrocarbon resource (oil + oil
equivalent of gas) estimated by DGH (Directorate General of
Hydrocarbons) for the 15 basins is about 28 billion tons. Out
of this, 10.94 billion tons of initial in place (IIP) reserves
(O+OEG) have been established as of 01.04.2014. The share
of oil IIP is 6.96 billion tons (63.4%) and that of gas is 3.98
billion tons (36.6%), the share of gas is rising in the recent
years. The gas recovery factor is currently in the range of 5560%. With the growth in O+OEG reserves from 2004 to 2012
at a CAGR of 2.55%, total IIP reserves are projected to be
23.76 billion tons in 2047. The share of oil and gas IIP would
be 9.5 (40%) billion tons and 14.25billion tons (60%),
respectively. The four Levels of likely gas production leading
upto 2047 are based on rising recovery factors (R/F) and
production of unconventional sources of gas.
Level 1
Level 1 incorporates only future production from the current
discoveries of conventional gas and Coal-Bed Methane (CBM
)(not from new discoveries). Historical production has been
taken into account. It does not include any production of
shale or Underground Coal Gasification (UCG). Domestic gas
supply reaches about 82 BCM in 2047 from 48 BCM in 2012.
This Level assumes recovery factor (R/F) of 55%. The share of
Private/Joint Ventures (PVT/JVCs) in the total production in
2047 would be 19% as compared to 75% of Non-Oil
Companies's (ONGC-63% & OIL 12%) and CBM would
contribute around 6%.
Level 2
Level 2 assumes moderate development of CBM achieving
peak production of 5 BCM in 2032 and remains static
thereafter. Shale gas makes its debut at end of the 13th Five
Year Plan (FYP) i.e. 2021-22. It assumes no UCG production.
This Level assumes continuation of the present gas price and
utilization policies, which are perceived as restrictive by
International Oil Companies (IOCs). This takes into account
new gas production of NOCs/Private, as new fields get
appraised and go into commercial production. Level-2
assumes R/F of 60%. The domestic gas supply would reach a
level of 127.5 BCM in 2047. The share of PVT/JVCs in the total
production of natural gas in 2047 would be 37% as compared
to 56% of NOCs (ONGC-45% & OIL 11%). The rest (7%) would
be unconventional share coming from shale gas and CBM.
Level 3
Level 3 envisages additional policy inputs to spur the growth
of natural gas sector. It assumes attractive fiscal regime for
exploration, and price/utilization approvals are no longer
required as the gas market has completely evolved in India.
CBM will achieve a peak production of 8 BCM in 2037 and will
remain static thereafter. It assumes shale gas production
starting from middle of the 13th FYP. It also assumes gas
production coming from Underground Coal Gasification
(UCG) of 2 BCM/annum from 2027 onwards (15th FYP). It
assumes R/F of 70% from the existing fields. Gas supply
would reach about 170 BCM by 2047. The share of PVT/JVCs
in the total production in 2047 would be 32% as compared to
53% of NOCs (ONGC-43% & OIL 10%) in natural gas, and the
rest 14% share would comprise of unconventional resources
(shale gas, CBM and UCG).
Level 4
Level 4 assumes a globally competitive upstream regime
wherein IOCs find it attractive to invest in India and free gas
market has set in. It assumes an aggressive conventional gas
scenario and CBM exploitation, a moderate shale gas
production and commencement of UCG from 15th FYP but
maximum supply from UCG is about 5 BCM/ annum. Even the
un-assessed 11 sedimentary basins may come under
production in the later decades. This scenario finds support
from a carbon reduction drive of the Government, too. Level4 assumes R/F of 80% which would safely sustain production
level of 224 BCM/year in the year 2047 with establishment of
conventional gas reserves of 14.25 billion Tons of Oil
equivalent of gas. India holds 933 TCF of has hydrate reserves
(source: DGH) however, no commercial production has been
established yet. Based on technological breakthrough by
Japan for first gas hydrate production in March, 2013 at pilot
scale, Indian estimates of 933 TCF of gas hydrate production
may come into reality. Taking 10% R/F, we may consider the
resource of about 93 TCF (total of about 2.63 TCM) only, as
there is no assurance of commercial establishment of
production from gas hydrates. The share of PVT/JVCs in the
total natural gas production in 2047 would be 33% as
compared to 52% of NOCs (ONGC-41% & OIL 11%) and the
unconventional share would be about 15% comprising shale
gas, CBM, UCG and gas hydrates.
49
2.14.2 GAS POWER STATIONS
Gas based generation in India got impetus in the eighties
when HVJ (Hajira-Vijaypur-Jagdishpur) gas pipeline was
commissioned by GAIL, after discovery of gas in the west
coast of India. This led to a number of Gas based
Combined Cycle Gas Turbines getting commissioned
along the HVJ pipeline in the western and northern parts
of India. The present analysis deals with pipeline Grid
connected Gas based plants as these plants are
dependent on gas supply infrastructure. The outlook on
gas pipelines is not clear as a number of approved
projects have not come up. Most gas based capacity is
centred (and may be the case in future) in South India,
close to offshore gas fields and LNG terminals.
Level 2 assumes that the expected capacity at the end of
the 13th five year plan under high gas scenario will be
added by 2047. The average CAGR will be about 2.1% and
PLF will increase slowly from 42.5% in 2017 to 45% in
2047 due to slightly improved gas availability and
conversion efficiency will be about 62% by 2047. As a
result, the corresponding cumulative capacity will be
50.2 GW and electricity generation will be 198 TWh in
2047.
Natural gas based power generation capacity of India
was about 24.2 GW by the end of 11th plan i.e. by 2012,
out of which, about 18.3 GW was utility and 5.9 GW was
captive power plants. Considering the drop in production
of domestic natural gas,PLFs of about 54.5% in 2012 of
gas-based plants has come down. However, it is expected
that the situation is likely to improve in the coming years
/ decades.
Level 3 assumes that the expected capacity in Natural Gas
Pipeline Vision-2030 Document by Petroleum and
Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) will be added by
2047. Total capacity will be about 83 GW by 2047. PLF will
increase from 45% in 2017 to 55% in 2047 due to
improved gas availability. Conversion efficiency will
improve to about 64% by 2047 due to technological
advancements. As a result, the correspondingelectricity
generation will be 400 TWh in 2047.
Level 2
Level 3
Gas based power will be vital not only to meet peaking
demand but also to balance RE. The price of LNG will be a
major determinant in growth of this source. This lever
examines gas based power generation scenarios until
2047.
Level 4
Level 4 assumes that the expected capacity by 2032 as
per forced gas scenario of Integrated Energy Policy (IEP)
by Planning Commission will be achieved by 2047. Total
capacity will be about 132 GW by 2047. The average
CAGR under this scenario will be about 5%. PLF increases
from 48% in 2017 to 60% in 2047 due to improved gas
availability from both domestic and imported sources
and conversion efficiency will be about 66% by 2047 due
to improved technologies. As a result, the corresponding
electricity generation will be 696 TWh in 2047.
Level 1
Gas TPPs installed capacity (GW)
Level 1 assumes that only the 12th plan's under
construction capacity of about 12 GW will be added,
though only by 2027. There will be no gas-based capacity
addition later on due to domestic fuel shortage,
expensive imports, lack of infrastructure etc. Considering
the addition, the total capacity will remain at 36.5 GW
from 2032 to 2047 which was 24.2 GW in 2012. The PLF of
gas-based power plants will come down at 40.7% in 2047
from 54.45 % in 2012due to lower gas availability and
conversion efficiency will be about 58% by 2047, which is
same as that in 2012. The electricity generation will rise
from 115 TWh in 2012 to 130 TWh in 2047.
140
132
120
100
83
80
60
40
50
36
24
20
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
Years
L1
50
L2
L3
L4
2042
2047
2.15 Coal
2.15.1 DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION
Coal contributes over half of India's primary commercial
energy, and it is likely to remain India's most important
source of energy for the next 2 decades. After
nationalization of coal mines in 1973, coal production
improved significantly. However, presently there is
continued shortageand imports have increased meeting
nearly 25% of demand. While official numbers of coal
resources and reserves have been published every year with
an average increase of almost 2.5 % per year for last two
decades, the quantity of actual techno-economically
mineable coal reserves in the country is still not clear. In the
present analysis, the 4 Levels examine the likely coal supply
from domestic sources up to 2047. The likely factors/levers
herein are improved outlook on reserves, growth in coal
based power capacity, speedy statutory approvals and
deployment of technology/private capital.
million tons short of the target of 575 million tons, we
assume that the total shortfall from the target in 2017 would
be 50 million tons. This results in an annual production
increase of about 5% per annum up to 2017, and about 4% up
to 2022. Proved coal reserves will grow at a reduced pace of
1% p.a. as most of the prognosticated coal bearing area
(75%) has been explored. There would be some
improvement in mineability due to technological
improvement. In this scenario, coal production will grow to
peak at 1191 MTPA in 2037 and decline marginally by 2047 to
1157 MTPA. About 62% of mineable coal reserves would
have been extracted by 2047. OC mining will be encouraged
but UG mining will not be paid much attention. So, UG
mining's % will increase just slightly from current 9% to 9.3%
in 2047.
Level 3
Level 1
Level 3 is consistent with the optimistic scenario projections
till 2022 in the 12th Five Year Plan, tempered by slower-thanexpected increase in production. The rate of increase of
production reduces slightly going forward. Proved coal
reserves will grow at about 1.3% p.a. and there would also be
further improvement in mineability. With these positive
conditions for coal based energy supply, coal production will
be 1400 MTPA in 2047. About 55% of mineable coal reserves
would have been extracted by 2047. UG mining will also be
encouraged progressively to tap deeper coal reserves and its
share will increase to 10.7% in 2047 from the current 9%.
Level 1 assumes that only the currently operating, on-going
and planned coal mining projects by Coal India Limited (CIL)
(437 MTPA) and Singareni Collieries Company Limited (SCCL)
(41 MTPA) and currently allocated captive blocks (43 billion
ton geological reserves) will come online. Production from
current (non-captive) mines will reduce by 17% every 5 years
(consistent with mine life of 30 years) due to closure of
mines. Production from captive blocks will start reducing
from 2027 onwards as most of the currently producing
captive blocks are new. Coal reserves and mineability of all
reserves will remain at present values. In this scenario, coal
production gradually increases from 582 MTPA in 2011-12 to
peak of 801 MTPA in 2027 and then it will start declining and
reach 540 MTPA in 2047. About 80% of the mineable coal
reserves will have been extracted by 2047 in this scenario as
no new reserves are added and there is no improvement in
mineability. Also, only opencast (OC) mining, which is easier
and cheaper, will be encouraged whereas the underground
(UG) mining will be discouraged. So, the UG % will reduce
from current 9% level to 6.4% in 2047.
Level 4
Level 4 is the most optimistic, assuming full encouragement
for coal based energy supply. Proved coal reserves will grow
at 1.5% p.a., production will reach about 1400 MTPA in 2032
as anticipated in the Integrated Energy Policy document, and
mineability will increase better than in other levels. In this
scenario, coal production will increase to about 1608 MTPA
in 2047, almost consistent with the high-case scenario of
global coal production as per Global Coal Production
Outlook. In this scenario, about 48% of mineable coal
reserves would have been extracted by 2047. UG mining will
be emphasised significantly along with technological
advancements but its share will increase only to 12.3% in
2047 from 9% in 2012 due to geological constraints.
Level 2
Level 2 projections are consistent with realistic (business as
usual) projected scenario based the 12th Five Year Plan till
2022. Given that the production for 2012-13 fell about 18
Coal Produc on (MTPA)
1800
1600
1608
1400
1400
1200
1157
1000
800
582
600
540
400
200
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
Year
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
51
2.15.2 COAL POWER STATIONS
At the end of the 12th five year plan, coal based power
generation contributed over 134 GW i.e. 56% of India's
capacity and 66% of electricity generation. India's low
per-capita electricity consumption of around 900 kWh
(1/3rd of world's average) and low levels of electricity
access (32% of the population without electricity access)
demands significant addition in electricity supply. In the
last decade, coal based power generation capacity was
doubled and substantial capacity addition is planned.
Level 1
Coal based power generation is discouraged due to
increasing fuel prices, import dependence, pressure to
reduce carbon emissions, reducing prices of renewable
energy etc. Installed capacity grows slowly to a high of
270 GW in 2032, corresponding to the least coal scenario
of the Integrated Energy Policy, and will reduce
thereafter to 253 GW by 2047. Plant load factor (PLF) of
power plants remains 73% up to 2032 and improves to
74% thereafter.
Level 2
Level 2 projections are in line with Planning
Commission's projections for next decade with a reduced
growth rate thereafter. Installed capacity will grow
rapidly to 297 GW in 2027, and then grow slowly to 379
GW in 2047 due to increasing coal prices, increasing
import dependence and increasing pressures to reduce
emissions. PLF is assumed to improve to 75% for next two
decades and to 76% thereafter.
Level 3
Level 3 assumes a coal-fired capacity addition slightly
lower than what is assumed for the 8% GDP growth
scenario in the interim report of the Expert Group on Low
Carbon Strategies for Inclusive Growth. The growth rate
of capacity addition is assumed to reduce subsequently.
In this scenario, installed capacity will grow to 379 GW by
2032, and then slow down to reach 464 GW by 2047.
Current PLF will improve to 77% for next two decades and
to 78% for further 15 years.
Level 4
Level 4 assumes a coal-fired capacity addition slightly
lower than what is assumed for the 9% GDP growth
scenario in the interim report of the Expert Group on Low
Carbon Strategies for Inclusive Growth. The growth rate
of capacity addition is assumed to reduce subsequently.
Installed capacity will grow to 591 GW in the next 35 years
due to improved domestic coal supply, softening of
imported coal prices and availability of more carbon
space to countries like India. Current PLF will improve to
79% for next two decades and to 80% for the further 15
years.
Coal based Capacity (GW)
700
600
591
500
459
400
333
300
253
200
125
100
0
2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047
Year
Level 1
52
Level 2
Level3
Level 4
2.15.3 EFFICIENCY OF COAL POWER STATIONS
India's existing coal based thermal power plants (TPPs)
are currently based on inefficient subcritical technology,
though efforts are now being made to adopt new
efficient technologies like super-critical, ultra supercritical etc. Super critical technology is likely to be
adopted at a significant scale (38%) during the 12th Plan
(2012-17). Post 2017, it is proposed that no subcritical
TPPs would be allowed. However the development and
deployment of these efficient technologies is sluggish
due to Indian coal having high ash content and low
calorific value. This analysis examines the penetration
levels of efficient technology in TPPs. Based on the
above, the user of this tool can estimate the quantity of
coal required to meet the desired level of power supply.
The factors/levers are ease of accessing technology,
policy drivers, power markets and availability of high
grade coal.
Level 1
New technology development/deployment will be slow.
Subcritical capacity addition will stop only after 2022,
ultra supercritical technology will be introduced only in
2027 and Integrated Gas Combined Cycle (IGCC) is
introduced in 2037. The share of IGCC in the coal-fired
capacity addition during 2042-47 would be only 30%, and
its share of the total capacity in 2047 would be only 18.6
GW at level 2 capacity addition, amounting to just about
6%, while 64% of the capacity would be super-critical.
Total demand for Indian grade coal in 2047 in this
scenario is high at 1390 million tons.
Level 2
New technology development/deployment will be
slightly faster than scenario A. Subcritical plant addition
will stop after 2017 as per current Government plans.
Ultra supercritical technology will be commercialized
after 2017 and IGCC after 2027. IGCC will contribute 50%
of the capacity addition in the 18th five year plan
(2042–47). The share of IGCC in the coal-fired capacity in
2047 would be 10%, and super-critical technology would
have a share of 55%. Total demand for Indian grade coal in
2047 in this scenario is 1194 million tons.
Level 3
New technology development/deployment will be
encouraged and hence its adoption would be faster. Subcritical capacity addition will stop after 2017, ultrasupercritical technology will be commercialized in 2022
and IGCC in 2027. IGCC's share of the capacity addition in
the 18th five year plan (2042–47) would be 65%. In 2047,
the share of IGCC in the coal-fired capacity would have
increased to 20% and super-critical technology would
have reduced to 43%. Total demand for Indian grade coal
in 2047 in this scenario is 1165 million tons.
Level 4
New technology development/deployment will be
aggressively promoted and hence adopted very fast.
Subcritical capacity addition will stop after 2017. 20% of
new capacity addition in the 14th five year plan from
2022 would be ultra-supercritical technology and 20% of
new capacity addition in the 15th five year plan from
2027 would be IGCC. Of the capacity addition in the 18th
five year plan ending in 2047, 80% would be IGCC,
resulting in its share in the total installed capacity in 2047
being 26%. Total demand for Indian grade coal in 2047 in
this scenario falls to 1142 million tons.
53
2.16 Oil Production
DOMESTIC OIL PRODUCTION
India has 26 sedimentary basins out of which 15 sedimentary
basins have been surveyed. The prognosticated
hydrocarbon resource estimated by Directorate General of
Hydrocarbons (DGH) for 15 sedimentary basins is about 28
billion tons of oil & oil equivalent of gas (O and OEG). Out of
this, 10.94 billion tons of initial in place (IIP) reserves have
been established as of 31st March 2014. The share of oil IIP is
6.96 billion tons (63.4%) and that of gas is 3.98 billion tons
(36.6%). The recovery factor (R/F) currently is in the range of
28-30%. The growth in IIP reserves (O and OEG) from 2004 to
2012 has been at compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of
about 2.55%. At this growth rate, the reserves establishment
would be of the order of 23.76 billion tons in 2047. The share
of oil reserves (oil in Place) would be 9.5 (40%) billion tons
and that of gas (gas in place) 14.25 billion tons (60%). This
would be common across the 4 scenarios. This analysis
examines the domestic crude supply at different levels of
production and recovery factors from the same level of
reserves.
Level 1
Level 1 assumes no improvement in R/F, and no newfields
come into production, barring the ones for which
investment decisions have been taken. It considers 13
DOCs/FDP approved by MC/DGH and 6 fields under
development stage. PVT/JVs numbers are available with
DGH up to 2020, beyond which, various growth rates have
been considered based on historical trend since1995. The
growth rates assumed are - ONGC (- 0.5%), OIL (1.4%), PSC
Regime (1%). The production in the year 2047 would slightly
decline to about 34.44Mtoe from 38 Mtoe in 2012. The share
of ONGC, OIL and PVT/JVs would be 70%, 17% and 13%
respectively in the total crude oil production in 2047.
Level 2
A number of IOR/EOR schemes are underway to enhance
production. ONGC would monetise their reserves in the
marginal fields. This is also rendered possible by approval of
the proposal to exempt the production from these fields,
from contributing to under-recoveries of the downstream
companies. Additionally about 35 discoveries which are
under various stages of DOC approvals, approved FDPs/
appraised discoveries have been considered to start
production after 2021. Based on the above assumptions, the
growth rates from 2017 onwards are - ONGC (1%) OIL (1.7%)
and PSC Regime (1%) and the growth rate for only PSC regime
becomes 1.5% from 2022 onwards. This regime will have
recovery factor of 30%, helping achieving crude production
of about 58.60 million tons in 2047. The share of ONGC, OIL
and PVT/JVs would be 68%, 11% and 21% respectively in the
total crude oil production in 2047.
Level 3
Under this scenario, a number of oil discoveries which are
awaiting appraisal and development are found to be
commercially viable. Marginal fields would supplement the
production. EOR/IOR schemes would be taken up
aggressively. Further, new discoveries from already awarded
NELP blocks, and future OALP acreages would commence
production after 2021. About 50 oil discoveries are under
various stages of approval with DGH. Keeping above
prospects in consideration, following growth rate has been
considered: ONGC 1.0% growth from 2014-15, and 1.5%
from 2017 onwards; OIL 2% from 2017 onwards and under
PSC Regime 1.5% from 2017 onwards. Level 3 assumes
recovery factor of 35% and production level of 67.7 million
tons by 2047. The share of ONGC, OIL and PVT/JVs would be
64%, 12% and 24% respectively in the total crude oil
production in 2047.
Level 4
This envisages NOCs registering a continuous growth in oil
production. Share from tight oil and shale oil has been taken
into account. However, this scenario includes technological
alliance with super majors, better R/F, deep-water
exploitation of reserves and no rig availability problems for
deep-water development. Ideal conditions exist for
production. The growth rate of production for ONGC: 1.5%
growth from 2014-15 and 2.0% from 2022 onwards, OIL
(2.5%) from 2017 onwards and PSC Regime (2.0%)-from
2017 onwards. The R/F would be 40% and the crude oil
production rises to around 78 million tons by 2047. The share
of ONGC, OIL and PVT/JVs would be 67%, 12% and 21%
respectively in the total crude oil production in 2047.
90
78
Oil Produc on (Million Tons)
80
70
68
60
59
50
40
35
34
30
20
10
0
1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047
L-1
54
L-2
Years
L-3
L-4
2.17 Carbon Capture and Storage
Fossil fuels will occupy a major part of our energy mix until
2047. Under the above circumstance, carbon capture and
storage(CCS) could be a critical Greenhouse Gas reduction
strategy in the use of fossil fuels. 'Green coal' could be a winwin solution. This lever in the IESS 2047 is a separate coal
based power generation technology, and supplements coal
based power as higher levels of CCS based plants are chosen
(Level 2 to Level 4)
Level 1
No planned generation plants with CCS till 2025 - resultantly
the rate of CCS technology deployment will be less.
Generation with CCS usage till 2025 will be negligible and
start stoincrease, but at very slow pace due to lack of
efficient and cheap technology. Generation with CCS usage
will increase to 8 GW by 2047 from 0 GW in 2012. High cost of
CCS technology becomes a deterrent in its adoption. The
electricity generation in 2047 would be 42.2 TWh.
Level 3
The amount of CCS-equipped capacity grows rapidly. The
absolute growth rate in capture-equipped capacity occurs
between 2030 and 2040. Going by International Energy
Agency's roadmap for CCS technology 2013, India will target
generation capacity with CCS of 3 GW till 2022 and will
increase to 80 GW till 2047. The electricity generation in
2047 would be 423.3 TWh.
Level 4
More generation plants with CCS technology will be
deployed as an outcome of technology up gradation and
reduction in capital requirement. India will begin
constructing its own demonstration scale facilities, and more
ambitious CCS projects. India will target generation capacity
with CCS of 5 GW till 2022 that increases to 90 GW by 2047.
The electricity generation in 2047 would be 475.2 TWh.
Level 2
CCS Capacity (GW)
Generation with CCS usage will be deployed at as low rate.
India will follow projections for the United States with some
time lag. Generation with CCS in 2022 will be around 1 GW
and will reach to 35 GW by 2047. The electricity generation
in 2047 would be 185.3 TWh.
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
90
80
35
0
2007
8
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
Year
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
55
Choices Around Network and Systems
2.18 Cross Border Electricity Trade
2.18.1 CROSS BORDER ELECTRICITY TRADE (IMPORT)
Presently India is importing 1.5 GW hydropower from
Bhutan, and also exporting around 500 MW to Pakistan;
120-150 MW to Nepal and around 500 MW to
Bangladesh. During 2017-22, import has been projected
at 8 GW mostly from Bhutan, and possibly Nepal as well.
Options of power export/imports from Myanmar,
Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are also being
explored. The inter-connection with India's neighbors is
important from future import/export/balancing
viewpoints. This analysis captures only the contracted
electricity imports and exports. The recent SAARC
agreement on a south Asian grid will enable this trade.
Level 1
assumes thatIndia's integration with regional grids is
poor. One implication of this is, that India is unable to tap
the hydro potential in the Himalayan States, that may
have helped balance our grid. Resultantly, imports
continue to be low, as projects planned are delayed. An
increase in electricity imports of 3GW during 13th Plan
(2017-22) is likely as some of the under construction
projects will be completed and thereafter will reach 7GW
by 2042 and 10GW by 2047.
Level 2
steady growth rate of 5GW in every 5 yearly periods
thereafter with cumulative capacity reaching 30 GW in
2047.
Level 3
assumes aggressive growth in imports and assumes India
imports maximum power from Bhutan and Nepal and will
meet its 8GW target envisaged in 13th Plan by 2022; India
will import 30GW by 2032 as it is assumed that 75 Hydro
Electric Projects (HEP) with a capacity of 25GW proposed
in Bhutan will be completed by 2030 and will export
electricity to India. Electricity import will be 55GW by
2042 as it is assumed that Nepal will commission its
23GW HEP projects and will export to India. This will be
maintained at same level till 2047.
Level 4
assumes optimistic growth in imports and assumes
power import from other countries apart from Bhutan
and Nepal as well. Target of 8 GW envisaged in 13th Plan
will be achieved in 12th Plan itself. It is assumed that
Nepal will explore its economical hydro potential of
42GW and export large volumes of electricity to India.
Imports may go up to 50 GW by 2042 and will reach 60GW
by 2047.
assumes imports continue to grow at a moderate pace,
planned projects will be completed but India will not be
able to achieve its target of 8GW envisaged in 13th Plan.
It will import 5GW by 2022 and thereafter maintain a
Import Capacity (GW)
80
70
60
60
55
50
40
30
30
20
10
10
0
2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047
Year
Level 1
56
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
2.18.2 CROSS BORDER ELECTRICITY TRADE (EXPORT)
Presently India is a net exporter to Bangladesh, Nepal
and Pakistan. It is assumed that by 2022, the situation will
change, and Nepal (and Bhutan) will be net exporter of
electricity to India, whereas only Pakistan and Sri Lanka
will remain as a net importer from India. This is likely to
help stabilize the Indian grid and balance excess
generation, particularly of RE origin.
completed in 13th Plan. India will continue to supply to
Pakistan and Bangladesh. Indian electricity exports rise to
2GW by 2022 and reach 4GW by 2047.
Level 3
assumes aggressive growth in export, India will export 1.5
GW during 13th five year plan. With accelerated
completion of pending projects between Bangladesh and
Pakistan, phase 1 & 2 of bipolar HVDC line between India
& Sri Lanka completed during 13th& 14th five year plan,
India will export 2.5GW by 2027, 5GW by 2042 and 6GW
by 2047.
Level 1
assumes that export continues to be low as India will be
focusing more on meeting domestic demand. Electricity
export will be of 1.5GW during 14th Plan (2022-27) as
some of the under construction projects in Pakistan and
Bangladesh will be completed (thereby, obviating the
need to import electricity), and thereafter will reach
2GW by 2037 and remain same till 2047.
Level 4
assumes optimistic growth in exports and assumes
power export to Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka. It is
assumed that proposed transmission infrastructure and
power stations projects will be completed and lot many
projects will be allocated for export of power to various
countries. India will export 7GW by 2042 and 10GW by
2047.
Level 2
assumes export continue to grow at a moderate pace and
it is assumed that phase 1 of bipolar High Voltage Direct
Current (HVDC) line between India and Sri Lanka will be
10
12
Energy Export (GW)
10
6
8
4
6
4
2
2
0
2007
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
Year
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
57
2.19 Transmission & Distribution
Losses And Smart Grids
T&D losses in India are one of the highest in the world.
With an objective to reduce distribution losses and
strengthen the distribution sector, Ministry of Power has
launched several programmes such as Accelerated
Power Development and Reforms Programme,
Restructured Accelerated Power Development and
Reforms Programme, and National Smart Grid Mission
etc. A change in the Electricity Act, 2003 is also envisaged
to improve the business structure towards this end separation of carriage and content.
The present analysis captures electricity savings under
different scenarios of T&D losses from the present losses
of 22.7% until global best performance in Level 4 in 2047.
Commercial losses are not captured herein, as they do
not impact electricity availability/consumption.
Level 1
Only a marginal improvement in T&D losses is assumed,
which is currently at 22.69% on all India basis as of May
2013. Owing to financial losses of distribution utilities,
investments towards strengthening the grid are minimal
and hence the reduction in T&D losses would not be
significant and will only reduce to 15.94% till 2047 out of
which distribution losses will be 10.94% and transmission
loss will reduce to 5%.
leveraging the Smart Grid technologies T&D losses would
reduce to approximately 11% by 2042 and will further
reduce to 10% till 2047 out of which transmission losses
will be 4% and distribution losses will be 6% by 2047.
Level 3
It is assumed that the investments are made as envisaged
in the India Smart Grid Roadmap, towards achieving the
stated goals of reduction in losses, demand response and
integration of renewable energy. Building on the success
of the pilot projects, various technologies are leveraged
under a clean energy policy drive to achieve financially
viable and sustainable Smart Grids. The T&D losses would
reduce to below 12% by 2027 out of which distribution
losses will be 7% and transmission losses will be 5% and
would reach around the global benchmark of 7% by 2047
of which transmission losses will be 3% and distribution
losses will be 4%.
Level 4
An aggressive drive is adopted by the dynamic 21st
century India, towards achieving sustainable economic
growth, energy independence and energy security.
Reforms in the transmission and distribution sectors are
carried out via elimination of cross-subsidies, innovative
and competitive tariff structures, increased private
participation in electricity business, electric vehicles,
real-time energy markets, bi-directional flow of
electricity and prosumer enablement. The global
benchmark of 7% T&D losses is achieved by 2042 of which
transmission losses will be 3% and distribution losses will
be 4% and maintained thereafter till 2047.
Level 2
Although the 14 Smart Grid pilot projects demonstrate
the benefits of Smart Grid technologies at the pilot scale,
a pan India large-scale deployment of Smart Grid
technologies is assumed to happen at a relatively low
rate. Projecting based on conservative estimates of
30%
24.67%
25%
T&D Loss
20%
15.94%
15%
10%
10.00%
7.20%
5%
0%
2007
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
Year
Level 1
58
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
2042
2047
2.20 Electrical Energy Storage
The main driving force for grid connected storage
systems in the Indian power sector, is the increasing
share of renewable energy which require storage to
handle the supply variability. India will keep on facing
power shortage as demand is increasing at much faster
rate compared to supply. A hybrid solution of storage and
renewable can help India in solving the problem. The
dependence on storage is much because there is hardly
any capacity market in India either. The large Renewable
Energy (RE) targets for India will depend a lot on storage
capacity. This lever examines scenarios of exploitation of
the available pumped storage capacity and battery
solutions. Coupled with the Lawrence Berkeley Lab
analysis (separate), the user can infer as to the feasible
levels of RE, under different demand/supply conditions.
will be employed in test beds at various parts of India.
Hybrid solution of solar and batteries will be employed.
Though the development of storage market will be in
rising trend but it will be at slower pace. Total grid
connected storage in India will be 20GW by 2022, growing
to 35GW by 2032, 55GW by 2042 and 75GW by 2047.
Level 3
Renewable share in total energy mix in India is expected
to increase to 116 GW by 2022 and 823 GW by 2047. In
addition to new technologies envisaged for level 2,
partnership between India and other countries for smart
grids and energy storage technologies will emerge and
brings out some new and low cost batteries with higher
performance parameters. Wind farms uses CAES
(compressed air energy storage) for storage of energy
during off peak hours, solar panel uses molten salt
batteries. Opportunities for new project development
and manufacturing emerges in India. Telecom sector will
also take a lead in replacing their diesel generators with
hybrid solution of solar and batteries. Total grid
connected storage in India will be 25GW by 2022, 40GW
by 2032, 80GW by 2042 and 100GW by 2047.
Level 1
Renewable share (capacity) in total energy mix in India is
13.1% (36GW) of total installed capacity as on March,
2015 and this is expected to increase to 63 GW by 2022
and 140 GW by 2047. With limited investments in
research and development of low cost and efficient
battery technologies, the cost of batteries remain high
resulting in less commercialization, poor adoption of
battery storage. Pumped storage hydro power continues
to dominate the energy storage in India. Total grid
connected storage in India will be 5GW by 2022 growing
to 8GW by 2032 and 10GW by 2042 and 15GW by 2047.
Level 4
Renewable share in total energy mix in India is expected
to increase to 206 GW by 2022 and 1530 GW by 2047.
India will attain its potential of 20 GW by 2020. As per
India Smart Grid roadmap, micro grids will be
implemented in 10,000 villages and 100 smart cities till
2027, batteries will play a major role in these
deployment. Wind mills will be integrated with hydro
pump storage systems to operate them. India will follow
IEA breakthrough scenario and total grid connected
storage in India will be 40GW by 2022, growing to 60GW
by 2032, 100GW by 2042 and 130GW by 2047.
Level 2
Renewable share in total energy mix in India is expected
to increase to 96 GW by 2022 and 491 GW by 2047. V2G
(Vehicle to Grid) technologies will be maturing to offer
storage solutions as large fleet of connected EV's
(Electrical Vehicle's) will operate in VPP (Virtual Power
Plant) mode. More share of pump storage will be
developed. Various storage technologies on pilot basis
Grid Connected Storage (GW)
140
130
120
100
100
75
80
60
40
20
15
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
Year
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
59
2.21 Reliability Of Power Supply
The Government of India has recently announced and
undertaken a variety of steps which would fuel the
changing energy scenario of India in the years to come. A
major stepping stone in this direction is the 24x7 Power
to All Scheme by the year 2022. Certain key schemes like
the DeenDayalUpadhyayaGrameenJyotiYojana and the
Integrated Power Development Scheme have been
launched to facilitate this goal.Although the path
towards this goal is subject to a multitude of logistical
and fiscal constraints, the attainment of the same would
be a key element in changing the face of the energy
sector of India. Therefore, the IESS, 2047 Version 2.0
offers the user an option to select the level of reliability of
the grid i.e4 scenarios on the availability of electricity
when demanded. These tie back to the aforementioned
target of 24x7 Power to All by 2022.
Once the user selects their preferred scenario for this
lever, the option thus selected is modelled into the
energy demand scenarios for the different demand
sectors and feeds into the generation of the aggregate
energy demand.
The base case (2012) assumes that that 80% of the
electricity in the residential sector and 92% electricity in
the Commercial sector is available when demandedi.e
level of reliability of the grid. A portion of the unmet
demand is met by local diesel backup.
60
Level 1
A pessimistic scenario. Assumes that due to logistical,
infrastructural and financial bottlenecks, the 24x7 target
to provide electricity to all is unmet in both the
Residential as well as the Commercial sectors by the year
2047. The grid is unable to meet 20% and 15% of the
electricity requirements even in the year 2047, a
proportion of which is supplied by local diesel backup.
Level 2
A moderately better scenario than level 1. Assumes that
the 24x7 target to provide electricity to all is met by the
year 2042 in the Residential sector as well as the
Commercial sector.
Level 3
An aggressive scenario. Assumes that the 24x7 target to
provide electricity to all is met by the year 2032 in the
Residential sector as well as the Commercial sector.
Level 4
Attainment of the goal of the Government:
Assumes that the 24x7 target to provide electricity to all is
met by the year 2022 in the Residential sector as well as
the Commercial sector.
Section 3
Example Pathways
Sec on 3 : Example Pathways
3.1 Maximum Energy Security
Pathway (MESP)
In the IESS, 2047, a restricted interpreta on of
the term 'Energy Security' has been adopted to
denote import dependence. With rising
energy imports, Indian policy makers have
targeted reduc on in the same as an
important policy objec ve. India imported
nearly 31% of its total primary energy supply in
the year 2011-12, and this number has further
risen since. Therefore, the present energy
exercise (IESS) is aimed at helping the policy
makers in choosing policy interven ons, in the
light of scenarios of India's import dependence
in the coming decades. The MESP comprises
of choices of those levels (out of 4 Levels) in
different Demand and Supply sectors, which
would reduce the energy import dependence
of India by the year 2047.
Energy Demand
It is obvious that the first effort to reduce
energy imports ought to be made on curbing
energy demand itself. Therefore, in this
pathway, we assume that the energy sector
makes 'Heroic efforts' in all energy consuming
62
sectors (all Level 4 choices adopted). India's
primary energy demand was 4929 TWhin 2012
which could rise to 18635 TWh in the default
case (Level 2 or Determined effort) by 2047.
However, if heroic efforts were made to reduce
energy demand, the same could be brought
down to 12436 TWh by 2047.
The scope for maximum reduc on lies in
Transport and Industry sectors, where Level 4
choices (Heroic scenarios) could restrict the
demand growth to a factor of 3.2 and 3
respec vely, in 2047 from 2012 levels, as
opposed to a factor of 5 and 4.5 in the default
scenario. These two sectors would comprise of
nearly 80% of the total energy demand in 2047.
Within the transport sector (freight and
passenger transport), maximum reduc on in
energy demand (12%) would come from
reducing the actual need for transporta on (by
be er urban planning, Transit oriented
development etc.), followed by raising the
share of the more efficient mode of transport –
rail, which contributes towards reducing 8% of
the total energy demand for transport. On the
Industry side, maximum energy reduc on
takes place by enhancing efficiency in Cement
and Iron and Steel industries, which comprise
of nearly 40% of the total energy demand in
the Industry segment in 2012. By adop ng
Level 4 i.e Best Available Technologies, their
energy demand growth of the Cement and Iron
and Steel sectors could be arrested to rise by a
factor of in 2 and 3.5 in 2047 respec vely (as
compared to a factor of 4 and 7 in the
Defaultcase). MESP also envisages higher
electrifica on, fuel switching and be er urban
planning to reduce the demand for transport.
The share of electricity in primary energy
demand in 2012 which was 16% rises to 29% in
this scenario by 2047.
Energy Demand
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
18635
12436
11824
9292
4929
2012
Buildings
2017
Industry
2022
Transport
2027
2032
2037
Pumps & Tractors
2042
Telecom
2047
Cooking
Energy Supply
On the supply side, this pathway would
envisage moderate reduc on in demand for
fossil fuel, raising of domes c produc on of all
fuels and higher uptake of new technologies
such as second genera on bio-fuels, including
micro and macro algal fuels. This scenario
would naturally envisage large uptake of
renewable energy as India has unlimited
availability of solar power and a huge wind
poten al. However, the volume of renewable
energy that can be ramped up would depend
on the challenges of grid balancing, and
integra on of renewable energy in the grid.
Even demand side interven ons are important
in determining fuel choices. For example, the
transport sector op ons of Electric Vehicles
and CNG fuelled vehicles in preference over
petrol/diesel vehicles would be essen al in
uptake of electricity/gas. The choice of
produc on technology in Industries would
drive energy demand for par cular fuels
(gas/electricity in place of solid fuel such as
coal in steel/cement industries). Within the
above challenges, the MESP on the supply side
would emerge as follows:
While in this pathway, coal produc on rises
steeply, but due to large doses of other
domes c fuels, coal would lose its share in the
supply mix, falling from 46% in 2012 to 43% in
2047. The share of renewables in the
enhanced propor on of electricity in the
energy mix would increase to 40% (it is 7% in
2012). The share of coal is lower than in
Determined effort oriented scenario, but
higher than the 37% share in maximum clean
energy scenario. Similarly, RE is ramped up to
enhance domes c sources in place of
imported coal and oil/gas. But, RE share is
lower than in the maximum clean energy
scenario where it rises to 49% share in
electricity. It may be noted that the integra on
of renewable energy (RE) and storage
(ba eries/pumped storage etc) for balancing
it, have also been offered as levers in the Tool.
The user may ck maximum exploita on of
storage capacity to support high levels of RE.
Separately, the grid balancing exercise is also
useful to determine what quantum of RE can
be dispatched at different levels of energy
demand. The oil sector would also see a major
ramp-up in domes c produc on, but reduced
imports are witnessed due to reduced demand
in the transport sector (Level 4 choices on
demand side). In this scenario, it is significant
to know that the domes c produc on of all
fuels including fossil fuels is also expected to
rise to the maximum possible levels. It is
assumed that the policy framework and
pricing scenario would favour large domes c
exploratory efforts for coal, oil and gas,
resul ng in the efforts rising to the highest
levels. The prognos cated resources of the
above three fuels rise, thereby suppor ng a
higher produc on which peaks during the
study period and reduces the energy import
levels.
63
Energy Supply
30000
25557
25000
20000
16564
15000
10000
17337
13614
from 1.7 tons of CO2eq/ capita in 2012 to 3.5
tons of CO2eq/ capita in 2047. (As compared to
5.7 tons of CO2eq/ capita in 2047 in the
Determined effort case)
7082
5000
GHG Emissions/Capita( tons/capita)
0
-5000
2012
2017
2022
Balance
2027
Natural gas
2032
Oil
2037
Coal
2042
2047
4.000
3.000
Bioenergy
3.5
2.000
60%
2500
50%
2000
40%
1500
30%
1000
20%
500
10%
0
0%
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
Fossil Fuel Based Electricity
Hydro and Nuclear
Renewable Based Electricity
Share of Renwables
2047
Imports
The current share of imports in the primary
energy mix of the country is 31%. This is
expected to rise to 57% in the default scenario.
The MESP reduces energy demand by heroic
efforts, which addresses the import situa on
to a large extent on its own. Then, owing to
large addi ons to domes c energy produc on
by higher level choices on coal and other
sources of energy (renewable energy
included), the domes c supply also ramps up.
In the MESP, the import dependence comes
down from 31% in 2012 to 22% in 2047.
0.000
2012
2017
Total
Bio Energy
Gas
21%
18%
2012
2017
22%
10%
4%
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
Overall
2047
Emissions
This pathway, due to its increasing emphasis
on Renewable Energy sources a ains a
reduc on in emissions as a co-benefit of
a d d re s s i n g i m p o r t d e p e n d e n c e . T h e
Greenhouse Gas emissions per capita increase
64
3.2
2047
10.6
4.3
0.2
0.2
Your Pathway
Oil
2042
6.1
2.5
Renewables
72%
31%
2037
6.0
0.0
Coal
2032
Land Requirement for your Pathway
Conventional
77%
2027
As this pathway focusses on interven ons on
the fronts of Renewable energy and Bioe n e r g y m a i n l y, t o h e l p c u r b i m p o r t
dependence, it is much more land intensive
than the Determined effort pathway. The
cumula ve land-use in this pathway rises by a
factor of nearly 1.7 in 2047 as compared to the
Determined effort pathway to support the
interven ons. (10.6 Million Hectares in 2047
as compared to 6 Million Hectares in the
Determined effort pathway)
Import Dependence
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2022
Implica ons on land
Area in M ha
3000
2012
1.7
1.000
Electricity Generation
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Determined Effort Pathway
Costs
The cost implica ons of this pathway would be
explained in a two-fold manner. Firstly, on the
demand side, due to an increase in energy
efficiency and electrifica on, the economy as a
whole would be a net saver in terms of costs, as
lesser energy would be required to supply the
same amount of services. It needs to be kept in
mind that the IESS, 2047 is an efficiency
calculator and not one of costs. The IESS does
not include the infrastructure costs associated
with undertaking these interven ons, it
merely reflects the benefits that these
interven ons would accrue to the economy. If
the infrastructure costs were to be considered,
the aggregate cost of these pathways would be
much more. Secondly, on the supply side, even
though the economy would incur costs on the
produc on of various forms of energy supply,
due to the decrease in the import dependence,
the country would save a tremendous amount
of its import bill, which will be reflected a
savings in fossil fuels.
Therefore, the maximum energy security
pathway would lead to a cumula ve savings of
284 Trillion INR in 2047 (1.71% of its
cumula ve GDP in the year 2047) over and
above the Determined effort pathway i.e if the
economy were to move to a path of Maximum
Energy Security as opposed to its default
pathway, ll the year 2047, it would accrue
savings of 284 Trillion INR over what it would
have spent while progressing on the default
path. These savings could be redirected to
other sectors of the economy.
adopt heroic efforts on demand reduc on
choice. It is only on the supply side that there
are differences. While both pathways believe
in ramping up domes c energy supply sources,
in the energy security pathway, fossil fuels are
preferred as there is a large domes c
endowment. But, in the clean energy pathway,
clean energy sources are preferred over fossil
fuel supply. However, this is a highly
improbable scenario, and while we could
perhaps a ain a large improvement over the
default case, but not the one generated in the
maximum energy security scenario owing to
the following reasons:
n
First, this scenario envisages a nearly 34%
reduc on in energy demand from the
default case which is challenging requiring
significant urban planning reform, and
public choices moving from private
transport to public transport.
n
Second, this would also envisage a very high
level of capital expenditure in crea ng
physical infrastructure, par cularly in the
transport sector (for a shi to rail/public
transport), the cost of which is beyond the
scope of the present exercise.
n
Third, it is assumed in this scenario that
fossil fuel based energy system would be
replaced by a renewable energy based one,
without taking into account the fact that
many fossil fuel based power plants would
not have completed their economic life but
are forced to re re giving way to renewable
solu ons. This would cause a big cost to
economy which cannot be compensated
either by the State or consumers.
Costs in INR Trillion (2012-47)
Total
Finance
Others
Industry
-50Transport
Buildings
Electricity
Bioenergy
Fossil Fuels
-284
-321
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
19
2
12
22
19
13
0
50
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Maximum Energy Security
Pathway gives a rosy picture for the Indian
energy sector in the year 2047, wherein import
dependence dras cally falls even from the
present level of 31% of the primary energy
demand in 2012 to 22% in 2047. Both demand
and supply sectors work in unison, in first
reducing energy demand and then, supplying
it largely by domes c sources. In many ways,
this pathway is nearly similar to Maximum
Energy Security Pathway, as both pathways
However, this scenario is a useful analysis to
indicate the direc on or choices which need to
be made for reduc on in energy demand and
raising supply. It also gives an overview of the
poten al of demand reduc on, raising of
supply, the poten al of emerging technologies
and the implica on of the above on emissions,
c o st s , l a n d re q u i re m e n t a n d i m p o r t
dependency.
65
3.2 Maximum Clean and Renewable
Energy Pathway (MCREP)
With increasing concerns about sustainability
and climate change and India finalising its
Intended Na onally Determined Contribuons for the first me for discussion in the COP
21 summit, the importance of moving towards
an economy which has renewable and clean
sources of energy as its mainstay is increasingly being deliberated upon.
India's per capita Greenhouse Gas emissions
stood at 1.7 tons of CO2 equivalent/ Capita in
2012, which is likely to rise. The present energy
exercise (IESS) is aimed at helping the policy
makers in choosing policy op ons, in the light
of scenarios of India's adop on of renewable
energy and mee ng its energy needs, in a
sustainable manner. The MCREP comprises of
choices of those levels (out of 4 Levels) in
different Demand and Supply sectors, which
would increase the country's share of clean
and renewable forms of energy by the year
2047.
Energy Demand
It is obvious that the first effort in the energy
strategy of the economy ought to be towards
curbing energy demand itself. If due to
demand side interven ons, the country can
66
reduce its energy demand, and also supply the
reduced energy demand by renewable and
clean sources, it would be able to achieve
emissions reduc on as a direct benefit.
Therefore, in this pathway, we assume that the
energy sector makes 'Heroic efforts' in all
energy consuming sectors to reduce demand
to the minimum (all Level 4 choices adopted).
India's primary energy demand was 4929
TWhin 2012 which could rise to 18635 TWh in
the default case (Level 2 or Determined effort)
by 2047. However, if heroic efforts were made
to reduce energy demand, the same could be
brought down to 12436 TWh by 2047.
The scope for maximum reduc on lies in
Transport and Industry sectors, where Level 4
choices (Heroic scenarios) could restrict the
demand growth to a factor of 3.2 and 3
respec vely, in 2047 from 2012 levels, as
opposed to factors of 5 and 4.5 in the default
scenario, respec vely. These two sectors
would comprise of nearly 80% of the total
energy demand in 2047. Within the transport
sector (freight and passenger transport),
maximum reduc on in energy demand (12%)
would come from reducing the actual need for
transporta on (by be er urban planning,
Transit oriented development etc.), followed
by raising the share of the more efficient mode
of transport – rail, which contributes towards
reducing 8% of the total energy demand for
transport.On the Industry side, maximum
energy reduc on takes place by enhancing
efficiency in Cement and Iron and Steel
industries, which comprise of nearly 40% of
the total energy demand in the Industry
segment in 2012. By adop ng Level 4
( m a x i m u m re d u c o n b y a d o p o n o f
autonomous energy efficiency), energy
demand growth of the Cement and Iron and
Steel sectors could be arrested to rise by a
factor of in 2 and 3.5 in 2047 respec vely (as
compared to a factor of 4 and 7 in the Default
c a s e ) . M R C E P a l s o e nv i s a g e s h i g h e r
electrifica on, fuel switching and be er urban
planning to reduce the demand for transport.
The share of electricity in primary energy
demand in 2012 which was 16% rises to 29% in
this scenario by 2047.
Energy Demand
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
18635
11824
12436
9292
4929
2012
Balance
2017
Cooking
2022
Telecom
2027
2032
Pumps& Tractors
2037
Transport
2042
2047
Industry
Energy Supply
On the supply side, this pathway would
envisage reduc on in demand for fossil fuel, a
shi in the supply mix away from conven onal
e n e r g y a n d a h i g h e r u p t a ke o f n e w
technologies such as second genera on biofuels, including micro and macro algal fuels.
This scenario would naturally envisage
maximum uptake of renewable energy as India
has unlimited availability of solar power and a
huge wind poten al. However, the volume of
renewable energy that can be ramped up
would depend on the challenges of grid
balancing, and integra on of renewable
energy in the grid. Even demand side
interven ons are important in determining
fuel choices. For example, the transport sector
op ons of Electric Vehicles and CNG fuelled
vehicles in preference over petrol/diesel
vehicles would be essen al in uptake of
electricity/gas. The choice of produc on
technology in Industries would drive energy
demand for par cular fuels (gas/electricity in
place of solid fuel such as coal in steel/cement
industries). Within the above challenges, the
MCREP on the supply side would emerge as
follows:
In this pathway, the share of coal will be the
lowest as compared to its share in any other
pathway because there is increased focus on
moving towards a largely renewable and clean
energy based economy. Driven by a moderate
coal produc on scenario, coal would lose its
share in the supply mix, falling from 46% share
in the primary energy supply in 2012 to nearly
37% in 2047. Addi onally, moderate fossil fuel
produc on scenarios also contribute to
reducing the fugi ve emissions from mining
and produc on processes. The share of
renewables in the enhanced propor on of
electricity in the energy mix would be 49% (it is
7% in 2012). It may be noted that the
integra on of renewable energy (RE) and
storage (ba eries/pumped storage etc) for
balancing it, have also been offered as levers in
the Tool. The user may ck maximum
exploita on of storage capacity to support
high levels of RE. Separately, the grid balancing
exercise is also useful to determine what
quantum of RE can be despatched at different
levels of energy demand (provided separately
in the tool). Along with different forms of Solar,
Wind and Hydro gaining importance, this
pathway also gives prominence to Bio-energy
as a source of energy. Increased produc on of
first and second genera on bio-fuels would
contribute to mee ng 38% the liquid fuel
demand in the transport sector. This pathway
assumes technical and physical limits to drive
the point that there is a major push for a move
towards renewable and clean energy sources
of energy. Inherent in this scenario is the
assump on that there are no barriers
(economic, social or technical) to the
realiza on of renewable and clean energy
poten als.
67
Energy Supply
30000
25557
25000
20000
16564
15000
10000
17337
13614
7082
5000
0
-5000
2012
2017
2022
Balance
2027
Natural gas
2032
Oil
2037
Coal
2042
2047
Bioenergy
the year 2047. A high penetra on of
Renewable and Clean sources as well as an
increased impetus on Bioenergy as an
alterna ve source, brings down the emissions
from 5.7 tons of CO2eq/ capita in 2047 in the
Determined effort case to 3.2 tons of CO2eq/
capita in 2047.
GHG Emissions/Capita( tons/capita)
Electricity Generation
3000
60%
4.000
2500
50%
3.000
2000
40%
1500
30%
1000
20%
500
10%
0
0.000
2012
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
Hydro and Nuclear
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
Renewable Based Electricity
Share of Renwables
2047
Implica ons on land
The current share of imports in the primary
energy mix of the country is 31%. This is
expected to rise to 57% in the default scenario.
The MCREP reduces energy demand by heroic
efforts, which addresses the import situa on
to a large extent on its own. Then, owing to an
increase in Renewable and Clean Energy
sources, the domes c supply also ramps up.
However, owing to moderate domes c
produc on scenarios of fossil fuels, the import
dependence is more than that in the
Maximum Energy Security pathway. Yet, in the
MCREP, the import dependence comes down
from 31% in 2012 to 26% in 2047.
As this pathway focusses on aggressive
interven ons on the fronts of Renewable
energy and Bio-energy mainly, to help curb
import dependence, it is much more land
intensive than the Determined effort pathway.
The cumula ve land-use in this pathway rises
by a factor of nearly 2 in 2047 as compared to
the Determined effort pathway to support the
interven ons. (11.6 Million Hectares in 2047
as compared to 6 Million Hectares in the
Determined effort pathway)
Land Requirement for your Pathway
Total
Area in M ha
2017
Fossil Fuel Based Electricity
Imports
Bio Energy
Renewables
77%
6.1
2.5
3.2
5.3
0.3
0.2
0.0
77%
11.6
6.0
Conventional
Import Dependence
2.0
Your Pathway
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Determined Effort Pathway
Coal
Oil
31%
21%
18%
26%
23%
13%
Costs
Gas
Overall
2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047
Emissions
The Maximum Clean and Renewable Energy
pathway, as the name suggests contributes to
a large decrease in the emissions for India ll
68
1.7
1.000
0%
2012
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
3.2
2.000
The cost implica ons of this pathway would be
explained in a two-fold manner. Firstly, on the
demand side, due to an increase in energy
efficiency and electrifica on, the economy as a
whole would be a net saver in terms of costs in
the long run as lesser energy would be
required to supply the same amount of
services. It needs to be kept in mind that the
IESS, 2047 is an efficiency calculator and not
one of costs. The IESS does not include the
demand side infrastructure costs associated
with undertaking these interven ons, it
merely reflects the benefits that these
interven ons would accrue to the economy.
The gains on demand side cannot be achieved
without these large expenses. If the
infrastructure costs were to be considered, the
aggregate cost of these pathways would be
much more. Secondly, on the supply side, even
though the economy would incur costs on the
produc on of various forms of energy supply,
due to a massive push for renewable and clean
energy sources including bioenergy, the
pathway is cheaper again on a life-cycle basis.
However, again we know that the capital costs
on RE are very high and need to be spent
upfront, which is a major challenge for
developing economies.
Therefore, the MCREP would lead to a
cumula ve savings of 271 Trillion INR in 2047
(1.63% of its cumula ve GDP in the year 2047)
over and above the Determined effort
pathway i.e if the economy were to move to a
path of Maximum Renewable and Clean
Energy as opposed to its default pathway, ll
the year 2047. This would accrue savings of
271 Trillion INR over what the country would
have spent while progressing on the default
path. These savings could be redirected to
other sectors of the economy.
scenario of moving towards an aggressively
high penetra on of Renewable and Clean
energy sources in the energy mix of India. A
transi on of this extent would considerably
contribute to arres ng the growth of
emissions to a factor of 2.7 in the year 2047 as
opposed to a factor of 4.7 in the defaultdetermined effort scenario. Both demand and
supply sectors work in unison, in first reducing
energy demand and then, a shi to cleaner
sources of energy is facilitated. In many ways,
this pathway is nearly similar to Maximum
Energy Security Pathway, as both pathways
adopt heroic efforts on demand reduc on
choice. It is only on the supply side that there
are differences. While both pathways believe
in ramping up domes c energy supply sources,
in the energy security pathway, fossil fuels are
preferred as there is a large domes c
endowment. But, in the clean energy pathway,
clean energy sources are preferred over fossil
fuel supply. However, this is a highly
improbable scenario, and while we could
perhaps a ain a large improvement over the
default case, the absolute realiza on of the
aforemen oned benefits is quite improbable
owing to the following reasons:
n
First, this scenario envisages nearly a 34%
reduc on in energy demand from the
default case which is challenging requiring
significant urban planning reform, and
public choices moving from private
transport to public transport.
n
Second, this would also envisage a very
high level of capital expenditure in crea ng
physical infrastructure, par cularly in the
transport sector (for a shi to rail/public
transport), the cost of which is beyond the
scope of the present exercise.
n
Third, it is assumed in this scenario that
fossil fuel based energy system would be
replaced by a renewable energy based one,
Costs in Chosen Units (2012-47)
Total
Finance
Others
Industry
-50 Transport
Buildings
Electricity
Bioenergy
Fossil Fuels
-271
-326
-400
-300
-200
-100
18
2
12
22
38
13
0
100
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Maximum Clean and
Renewable Energy Pathway lays out the
69
without taking into account the fact that
many fossil fuel based power plants would
not have completed their economic life but
are forced to re re giving way to renewable
solu ons. This would cause a big cost to
economy which cannot be compensated
either by the State or consumers.
n
70
Fourth, this pathway assumes no barriers
(economic, social or technical) in the
realiza on of such vast poten als of
renewable and clean energy.
However, this scenario is a useful analysis to
indicate the direc on or choices which need to
be made for reduc on in energy demand and
shi ing the energy mix in favour of cleaner
sources. It also gives an overview of the
poten al of demand and emission reduc on,
the poten al of emerging technologies and the
implica on of the above on emissions, costs,
land requirement and import dependency.
Section 4
Some Key Results
1. Potential of Demand Reduction from Determined Effort
Scenario to Heroic Effort Scenario
Sector
Demand in 2012
(TWh)
Demand in 2047 (TWh)
Determined Effort
Heroic Effort
% Savings
Buildings
238
2287
1540
33%
Industry
2370
10430
6912
34%
Transport
929
4414
2975
33%
Pumps& Tractors
237
798
533
33%
Telecom
83
184
66
64%
Cooking
1072
522
410
21%
Total
4929
18635
12436
33%
2. Subsector Analysis: Determining the impact of different
interventions on the energy demand of Passenger Transport
Demand in 2047 (TWh)
% Savings
Determined Effort (Reference)
2377
-
Transit Oriented Development
2034
14%
Shift to more efficient modes of transport
2264
5%
Shift to Public Transport
1864
22%
Shift to Electric and Hybrid Vehicles
2004
16%
Heroic Effort
1370
42%
From the above analysis, the user can observe how much each sub-sector in the Passenger
Transport segment contributes individually to reducing the energy demand for the sector. The line
item for Heroic Effort talks about how much reduc on in energy demand is possible for the
Passenger Transport segment if all subsectors collec vely feed into each other at the Heroic Effort
level.
3. Supply side analysis: Impact on Primary Energy Supply as a
result of changes in Demand pathways
Primary Energy Supply in 2047 (TWh)
Sector
Heroic Effort on
Demand Side
% Savings
1986
2078
(5%)
13159
7770
41%
Oil
6832
4434
35%
Natural Gas
2075
1753
16%
Bioenergy
1413
1413
-
25465
17448
31%
Renewable and Clean Energy
Coal
Total
72
Determined Effort on
Demand Side
4. Supply side analysis: Changes in fuel composition of
different pathways
Primary Energy Supply Pathway in 2047 (TWh)
Sector
Maximum Renewable and
Clean Energy Pathway
Maximum Energy Security
Pathway
Renewable and Clean Energy
3638
2560
Coal
6210
7263
Oil
4194
4194
Natural Gas
1563
1675
Bioenergy
1732
1732
Total
17337
17424
5. Emission analysis: Reduction in emissions by shift
to a clean energy pathway
Emissions in 2047 (MTCO2Eq)
Sector
Determined Effort
Pathway
Maximum Renewable and
Clean Energy Pathway
% Savings
Industry
5935
3559
40%
Transport
1118
709
37%
Agriculture
72
43
40%
Telecom
37
3
92%
Thermal Generation
2678
1409
47%
Bioenergy
-304
-363
(19%)
93
93
-
109
73
33%
9738
5526
43%
Fossil Fuel Production
Fossil Fuel Transfer
Total
6. Import dependence analysis: Reduction in imports by a
shift to Maximum energy security pathway
Import Dependence
2012
Determined Effort (2047)
Maximum Energy Security (2047)
Coal
18%
59%
10%
Oil
77%
88%
72%
Gas
23%
44%
4%
Overall
31%
57%
22%
73
7. Overall analysis: Summary of results
Scenario
Demand Demand
(2012)- (2047)TWh
TWh
74
Implications
Demand in TWh
Import
Demand/
Demand/ Renewable
Emissions/ Emissions/
Dependence Capita (2012) Capita (2047)
Energy
Capita
Capita
Penetration
(2012) (2047)KWh/Capita KWh/Capita
Least Effort
4929
22140
4053
12991
6%
84%
1.7
7.9
Determined
Effort
4929
18634
4053
10934
26%
58%
1.7
5.7
Heroic
Effort
4929
12436
4053
7297
39%
34%
1.7
4.3
Maximum
Energy
Security
4929
12436
4053
7297
40%
22%
1.7
3.5
Maximum
Clean and
Renewable
Energy
Pathway
4929
12436
4053
7927
49%
26%
1.7
3.2
Determined 4929
Effort
Overall and
Heroic Effort
on Electric
Vehicles
18262
4053
10716
25%
57.10%
1.7
5.68
Determined
Effort
Overall and
Shift to
Public
Transport
4929
18121
4053
10634
26%
56.50%
1.7
5.62
Determined
Effort
Overall and
Modal Shift
to Rail
Freight
4929
18262
4053
10716
25%
57.00%
1.7
5.68
Determined
Effort
Overall and
Heroic
Effort in
Transport
4929
17196
4053
10090
25%
54.90%
1.7
5.5
Determined
Effort
Overall and
Heroic
Effort in
Fuel
Switching
in Industry
4929
16976
4053
9961
23%
56.40%
1.7
5.17
Scenario
Implications
Demand in TWh
Demand Demand
(2012)- (2047)TWh
TWh
Import
Demand/
Demand/ Renewable
Emissions/ Emissions/
Dependence Capita (2012) Capita (2047)
Energy
Capita
Capita
Penetration
(2012) (2047)KWh/Capita KWh/Capita
Determined
Effort
Overall and
Heroic
Effort in
Industry
4929
15117
4053
8870
25%
51%
1.7
4.36
Determined
Effort
Overall and
Heroic
Effort in
Buildings
4929
17840
4053
10468
31%
53%
1.7
5.21
75
NOTES
76
NOTES
77
NOTES
78
Supporting Partners
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please write in to the IESS, 2047’s team at iess-2047@gov.in
For more information: Visit us at www.indiaenergy.gov.in