wagering guide

Transcription

wagering guide

WAGERING GUIDE
M AY 2 0 , 2 0 0 6 • P I M L I C O • B A LT I M O R E
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Main Contenders, Value Plays and Wagering Strategies.
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Preakness Day
Post-Times
Pimlico Primer
First Post 10:30 am EDT
Preakness 6:05 pm EDT
By Frank Carulli, Maryland Jockey Club
analyst and morning-line maker
(times approximate)
Bettors can be fooled once, as the recent
history of the Kentucky Derby tells us,
but when it comes time for the Preakness
Stakes, they don’t get fooled again.
So dramatic is the turnaround from the
first to third Saturday in May, the same core
group of three-year-olds that make the
Derby one of the most unpredictable Grade
1 races in America make the Preakness one
of the most predictable.
Since 1980, the Derby has produced two
winning favorites and a dozen winners
at double-digit odds; the Preakness has
produced eight winning favorites and only
Deputed Testamony ($31 in 1983) as a
winner at 10-1 odds or higher. This year’s
Derby winner will try to join Smarty Jones,
Funny Cide and War Emblem as repeat
winners in the first two legs of the Triple
Crown in the last five years alone.
There are many reasons why the Preakness
has held true to form – smaller fields,
fewer questions about which horses can
handle the distance and a clearer view of
the key and not-so-key prep races. Several
other trends are worth noting as the 131st
Preakness takes center stage on Saturday,
May 20 in Baltimore:
Speed Bias Fallacy
Speed horses do not dominate in the
Preakness. When Aloma’s Ruler upset
Linkage in the 1982 Preakness, the racing
strip was dubbed a “super highway” and
biased toward front-runners by the local
media. Since then, however, Louis Quatorze
(1996) is the only wire-to-wire winner. Louis Quatorze posted
fractions of :46-1/5 and 1:09-4/5, which rank among the three
fastest half-mile and six-furlong splits in the last 20 years. “It’s not
like it used to be,” said Ryan Fogelsonger, one of the top riders in
Maryland. “Horses have just as good of a chance winning from off
the pace as on the pace in routes here. That’s not to say racing on
the inside isn’t an advantage. You want to save ground.”
Post Position Blues
Horses breaking from outside posts must be good to win. Since
1980, Preakness starters breaking from post 8 and beyond have
compiled an 85: 6-8-9 record. More importantly, all of those
winners good enough to overcome the outside posts were horses
who won two legs of the Triple Crown – Pleasant Colony, Real
Quiet, Point Given, War Emblem, Funny Cide and Afleet Alex.
New Faces
New shooters do not bring a lot of ammunition. Red Bullet (2000)
was the only Preakness winner in the last 20 years to skip the
Kentucky Derby.
Public is Right On
The betting public must be respected. Of the last 14 Preakness
winners, 11 went off at 7-2 odds or less, a remarkable trend
considering there were 10 or more horses entered every year but
one. Five winners during that period – Pine Bluff, Prairie Bayou,
Timber Country, Point Given and Afleet Alex – were dismissed at
lower odds in the Preakness than the Kentucky Derby winner in
the same race.
The Preakness is the final leg of an all-stakes pick four that carries a
guaranteed $1 million pool.
That’s a good bet in anyone’s book.
SELECTIONS AND WAGERS
ARE DIFFERENT GAMES
by Randy Moss
ESPN and ABC Sports analyst
ANALYSIS: Barbaro was the most dominating Kentucky Derby
STATS & TRENDS:
winner since Spend A Buck, and appears to have no real weaknesses.
He has a high cruising speed that can be used to outrun potential
trouble spots (i.e., first turn of Florida Derby), and now we know that
rating several lengths off the lead between horses is no problem.
31 Kentucky Derby winners have also won
the Preakness Stakes.
Barbaro seems clearly best in the Preakness, but that doesn’t make
him unbeatable. Brother Derek showed determination in the Derby
by digging in through the lane and passing horses after a wide trip
that took him completely out of his comfort zone. If the tables are
turned in the Preakness and Barbaro has the disadvantageous trip,
Brother Derek may be good enough to capitalize.
MAIN CONTENDERS: Barbaro and Brother Derek.
Sweetnorthernsaint’s Derby effort was a throwout - he was 18th
after a furlong due to a rough start, and then made a premature
backstretch move. Bernardini has a blue-blooded pedigree and
is rapidly improving, although he takes a major class hike in the
Preakness. Like Now could make the pace, and has proven to be
dogged on the front end. If either Baffert possible makes the race,
it is hard to make a case that Point Determined can under any
circumstances outrun Brother Derek, much less Barbaro, and Bob
and John had a rough Derby trip but doesn’t seem good enough.
VALUE PLAYS: Should the betting public plunge on Barbaro to
the tune of 3-to-5 or so, the aforementioned main contenders would
all be decent value plays. In this opinion, a proper value line would
be about 4-to-5 on Barbaro, 5-to-2 on Brother Derek, 6-to-1 on
Sweetnorthernsaint, 10-to-1 on Bernardini and Point Determined/
Bob and John, and 12-to-1 on Like Now. Barbaro is certainly the
most likely winner, and on a percentage basis is perhaps 70-30 to
take the race. But selections are one thing, and wagering strategy
another. Brother Derek could play the spoiler if luck is on his side.
WAGERING STRATEGY ($100):
• $1 Trifecta: BROTHER DEREK with BARBARO with ALL (as many
times as you can for $100)
Six of the last nine Kentucky Derby winners
also have won the Preakness Stakes.
PREAKNESS BETTING FACTS:
WIN-PLACE-SHOW (Last 10 years)
Average Win Odds: 3.97-to-1
High Win Odds: 8.50-to-1 (Louis Quatorze,
1996)
Low Win Odds: .70-to-1 (Smarty Jones, 2004)
Notable: Only 1 Preakness winner was below
9-to-5 this decade.
Average Place Odds: 10.61-to-1
High Place Odds: 45.70-to-1 (Magic Weisner,
2002)
Low Place Odds: .30-to-1 (Fusaichi Pegasus,
2000)
Notable: Preakness favorites ran 2nd in 1998,
1999 and 2000.
Average Show Odds: 13.23-to-1
High Show Odds: 58.00-to-1 (Badge, 1999)
Low Show Odds: 2.10-to-1 (Captain Bodgit,
1997)
Notable: 4 of the last 8 Preakness show
horses were 10-to-1 or more.
KNOW THIS:
Since 1931, the Preakness has been run on
Saturday afternoon, although this was not
always so. The Preakness has been staged
on every day except Sunday. The classic has
been run on Tuesday, 14 times; Friday, 13;
Monday, 6; Wednesday, 5; and Thursday, 4.
SELECTIONS:
1. BARBARO
2. BROTHER DEREK
3. SWEETNORTHERNSAINT
4. BERNARDINI
Late Breaking Updates Online Starting May 17
Exotic Wagering
Chart
EXACTA BOX: ($2 Wager)
2 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $4
3 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
4 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24
5 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $40
6 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60
7 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $84
8 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $112
EXACTA WHEEL: ($2 Wager)
One Horse with All
6 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $10
7 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
8 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $14
9 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $16
10 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $18
TRIFECTA BOX: ($1 Wager)
Preakness Day can produce some
juicy exotic payoffs. Use this
Exotic Wagering Chart to plan
your attack.
TRIFECTA KEYS: ($1 Wager)
1 Horse with 3 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4/ 2, 3, 4)
1 Horse with 4 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5/ 2, 3, 4, 5)
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7)
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)
SUPERFECTA BOX: ($1 Wager)
4 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24
5 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120
6 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $360
3 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6
4 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24
5 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60
6 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120
7 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $210
8 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $336
SUPERFECTA WHEELS: ($1 Wager)
One Horse with All with All with All
7 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120
8 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $210
9 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $336
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $504
(Example: 1/All/All/All or All/1/All/All or All/All/1/All or All/ All/ All/1)
TRIFECTA WHEELS: ($1 Wager)
One Horse with All with All
(Example: 1/all/all or all/1/all or all/all/1)
7 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $30
8 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $42
9 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $56
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $72
One Horse with Two Horses with All with All
7 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $40
8 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60
9 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $84
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $112
(Example: 1/ 2/ All/ All or 2/ 1/ All/ All or 1/ All/ All/ 2 or 2/ All/ All/ 1
or All/ All/ 1/ 2 or All/ All/ 2/ 1)
One Horse with Two Horses with All
(Example: 1/2/all or 2/1/all or 1/all/2 or 2/all/1
or all/1/2 or all/2/1)
7 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $10
8 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
9 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $14
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $16
SUPERFECTA KEYS: ($1 Wager)
1 Horse with 3 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4)
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5)
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7)
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)
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IN MATZ WE TRUST
by Jeff Siegel
HRTV analyst
ANALYSIS: Taking his previous form at face value, Barbaro
STATS & TRENDS:
should not have been expected to demolish 19 Kentucky Derby
rivals by the largest margin of victory (6-1/2 lengths) in 60 years.
Although undefeated in five starts, Barbaro wasn’t even deemed
worthy of Derby favoritism. His credentials were considered suspect
by many experts who were intimidated by his five-week layoff prior
to the Derby, supposed suspect competition this winter in South
Florida and Beyer Speed Figures that fell short of spectacular. Yet, his
breathtaking performance on the first Saturday in May might have
been anticipated had one placed trust in superb trainer Michael
Matz. It was Matz who orchestrated a racing and training schedule
devised to have Barbaro peak during the Triple Crown – not in prep
races leading up to it. As his 111 Kentucky Derby Beyer Speed Figure
attests, Barbaro is a much better colt than the one who was fully
extended to win the Holy Bull and Florida Derby this winter.
In the past 50 years only nine horses who
did not race in the Kentucky Derby have
won the Preakness Stakes. In the past 23
years only one horse who didn’t start in the
Kentucky Derby won the Preakness Stakes
(2000 Red Bullet).
MAIN CONTENDERS: Nobody beats Barbaro if he reproduces
his Derby performance, but connections of Brother Derek,
Sweetnorthernsaint and newcomer Bernardini have a right to be
hopeful, if not optimistic. In the Derby, Brother Derek was farther
back early than he prefers and was extremely wide throughout, yet
managed to produce enough late punch to earn a dead-heat for
fourth. Sweetnorthernsaint was out of his comfort zone 50 yards
from the gate and spent the next mile making up for it. Bernardini
earned a 104 Beyer in winning the one-turn mile Withers at
Aqueduct in late April in just his third career start, and that’s better
than anything Barbaro was able to earn prior to the Kentucky Derby.
VALUE PLAYS: Assuming Barbaro wins – and we are – the
wagering value must come by isolating the second-place finisher.
And that could be the fresh face, Bernardini, a colt by A. P. Indy
who never has been tried around two turns, but who gives every
indication that he’ll improve as the distances increase. And he’s
pretty good already.
• $90 Exacta: BARBARO over BERNARDINI
• $10 Win: BERNARDINI
EXACTA (Last 10 years)
Average $2 Exacta Payoff: $91.96
High $2 Exacta Payoff: $327.00 (War
Emblem-Magic Weisner, 2002)
Low $2 Exacta Payoff: $22.40 (Silver CharmFree House, 1997)
Value: The Preakness exacta has averaged a
16-percent overlay from its fair-odds payoff
the past decade, when looking at the winplace prices of the runners compared to the
exacta payoff.
Notable: 3 of the last 4 Preakness exactas
paid $120.60-plus.
KNOW THIS:
On 11 occasions, the Preakness was
run prior to the Derby, and twice, 1917
and 1922, on the same day. In 1890, the
Preakness and Belmont Stakes were run
on the same card at Morris Park. On 11
different occasions, the Belmont was run
prior to the Preakness. Since 1931, the
current order of Kentucky Derby-Preakness
Stakes-Belmont Stakes has remained in
place. In a challenging test of endurance,
in 1919, Sir Barton, the first Triple Crown
winner, captured the Kentucky Derby on
May 10 and the Preakness four days later on
May 14.
SELECTIONS:
1. BARBARO
2. BERNARDINI
4. BROTHER DEREK
BARBARO HAS JUST ONE
HORSE TO FEAR
by Bob Neumeier
NBC Sports analyst
ANALYSIS: With all of the Triple Crown talk humming around
STATS & TRENDS:
Barbaro (remember Fusaichi Pegasus?), the Derby winner should
go to post at 3-to-5 or 4-to-5 odds, a far cry from the juicy 6-to-1
that we took out at Churchill Downs. Tactically, jockey Edgar Prado
figures to stalk the likely speedballs – Like Now and Brother Derek,
who I believe will be sent along early by Alex Solis. If Barbaro
doesn’t “bounce” or regress off his big Derby number, he will have
just one horse to fear – the lightly-raced Bernardini. Despite a bluechip pedigree, this newcomer has never been around two turns in a
brief career, and may suffer his own case of the “bounces” following
a big figure in the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct.
Since 1974, 15 local, Maryland-based horses
have finished as part of the Preakness
superfecta—including two longshot
runner-ups in the past four years, Scrappy T
(2005) and Magic Weisner (2002).
MAIN CONTENDERS: After Barbaro and Bernardini, Brother
TRIFECTA (Last 10 years)
Derek deserves a peek in the Preakness. Hung wide from the 18
post in the Derby, Solis will have a far easier time at Pimlico. But
is he good enough? It would appear that Like Now’s best chance
is a theft attempt on the front end, unlikely with other early lick
signed on. Sweetnorthernsaint may be over the top, and should be
avoided in this spot. In a classic bit of understatement, Barbaro is
the horse to beat in the Preakness. Duh!
VALUE PLAYS: Slim and none. If Bernardini slips into the fourth
or fifth choice, than he is worth a play on the Barbaro-bounce
theory. But, my instincts tell me that this Tom Albertrani charge
may go off in the 3-to-1 or 7-to-2 range….too low given his limited
experience. Who then will be second choice? Brother Derek?
Sweetnorthernsaint? Or Bernardini?
Keep Sweetnorthernsaint off any gimmicks.
• $60 Exacta: BARBARO over BERNARDINI (hope for $25 dollar
return)
• $20 Exacta Box: BERNARDINI and BROTHER DEREK
That leaves just one combo that will beat you….the logical
BARBARO over BROTHER DEREK cold Exacta.
Maryland-based Preakness winners since
1974 are Deputed Testamony (1983) and
Spectacular Bid (1979).
Average $1 Trifecta Payoff: $361.90
High $1 Trifecta Payoff: $1,155.50 (War
Emblem-Magic Weisner-Proud Citizen,
2002)
Low $1 Trifecta Payoff: $19.10 (Silver CharmFree House-Captain Bodgit, 1997)
Value: Over the last 4 years, the average
$1 Preakness trifecta payoffs have been
more than seven times greater than the
corresponding $1 exacta payoffs.
Notable: 6 of the last 10 Preakness trifectas
paid over $100 for $1.
KNOW THIS:
Robert Wyndham Walden, of Bowling Brook
Farm in Middleburg, Md., was perhaps the
most celebrated trainer of his day. During
the final quarter of the 19th century, he
saddled seven Preakness winners, including
five straight from 1878 to 1882. George
Lorillard owned all five. D. Wayne Lukas and
Thomas J. Healey are tied for second on
the all-time Preakness trainer’s win list with
five victories, while Bob Baffert has tasted
victory in four of the last nine runnings.
SELECTIONS:
1. BARBARO
2. BERNARDINI
3. BROTHER DEREK
4. LIKE NOW
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Tune in to HRTV™ to hear expert
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HRTV will broadcast in-depth
coverage of the Preakness Stakes
each day leading up to the big event.
Catch workouts, interviews, feature
stories and a whole lot more as our
knowledgeable crew goes behind-thescenes to bring you everything you need
to know about the 131st running of the
second leg of the Triple Crown. Of course,
HRTV will show all the races leading up
to the big event, all week long. On-site
coverage of the Preakness Stakes from
Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland
begins Preakness week on HRTV.
Photos:
Facing Page - Becky Witzman leads HalfBridled
This Page (top to bottom) - Peter Lurie in Winners’
Circle; Jon White interviewing Woody Stephens;
Scott Hazelton as a child at races with parents;
Millie Ball, jockey in England.
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BROTHER, THERE’S A CHANCE
FOR THE UPSET
by Jon White
HRTV and Santa Anita television host
ANALYSIS: When trying to come up with the Preakness winner,
STATS & TRENDS:
it’s always best to start by looking at those who ran in the Kentucky
Derby. That’s because only two Preakness winners in more than two
decades did not compete in the Derby (Deputed Testamony in 1983
and Red Bullet in 2000). Barbaro won the “Run for the Roses” by
6-1/2 lengths, more than the winning Derby margins of Secretariat,
Seattle Slew and Affirmed combined (5-3/4 lengths). On the basis of
Barbaro’s smashing Derby victory and perfect record, he deserves
the utmost respect. Perhaps Barbaro will win the Preakness and
go on to sweep the Triple Crown. But is he a sure thing in the
Preakness? No. Keep in mind that such other impressive Derby
winners as Monarchos, Fusaichi Pegasus, Thunder Gulch, Unbridled,
Ferdinand, Swale, Bold Forbes, Foolish Pleasure and Riva Ridge were
unsuccessful in the Preakness.
In the last 24 years only two Preakness
winners led throughout the entire race:
Aloma’s Ruler (1982) and Louis Quatorze
(1996), who was in front at every call except
for the start.
MAIN CONTENDERS: Barbaro earned a career-best 111
Beyer Speed Figure in the Derby. That’s a higher Derby figure than
Giacomo (100), Smarty Jones (107), Funny Cide (109), Fusaichi
Pegasus (108), Charismatic (108), Real Quiet (107), Thunder Gulch
(108), Sea Hero (105), Lil E. Tee (107) and Sunday Silence (102).
Who might stop Barbaro in the Preakness? Brother Derek and
Sweetnorthernsaint seem to have the best chances. Brother
Derek had a very wide trip and reportedly lost a shoe in the
Derby, while Sweetnorthernsaint made an eye-catching move
on the backstretch after some early adversity. Brother Derek and
Sweetnorthernsaint each averaged a 105 Beyer Speed Figure this
year before the Derby. Barbaro’s average dirt figure going into the
Derby was 99.
VALUE PLAYS: Bernardini has a beautiful pedigree. His victory
in the Withers makes him dangerous. But he would be the exception
to the rule if he were to win the Preakness without having run in the
Derby.
• $80 Win: BROTHER DEREK
• $10 Exacta Box: BROTHER DEREK and SWEETNORTHERNSAINT
SUPERFECTA (Last 10 years)
Average Superfecta Payoff: $4,341.50
High $1 Superfecta Payoff: $18,887.60
(Charismatic-Menifee-Badge-Stephen Got
Even, 1999)
Low $1 Superfecta Payoff: $230.70 (Smarty
Jones-Rock Hard Ten-Eddington-Lion Heart,
2004)
Average Odds of Fourth-place finishers:
9.59-to-1
Value: The three $6,000-plus payoffs for a
$1 Preakness superfecta in the past decade
have been keyed by winners averaging just
4.83-to-1, including two post-time favorites.
Notable: Since debuting in ’96 with a pool
of $401,980, the Preakness superfecta has
topped $5.3 million in wagers each of the past
two years.
KNOW THIS:
The Preakness has been staged at seven
different distances since its start in 1873:
1-1/2 miles—1873 to 1888 & 1890
1-1/4 miles—1889
1-1/16 miles—1894 to 1900 & 1908
1 mile, 70 yards—1901 to 1907
1 mile—1909 and 1910
1-1/8 miles—1911 to 1924
1-3/16 miles—1925 to present
SELECTIONS:
1. BROTHER DEREK
3. BARBARO
4. BERNARDINI
SOFTER PACE CHANGES PREAKNESS
COMPLEXION SOMEWHAT
by Dick Jerardi
Philadelphia Daily News columnist
ANALYSIS: Barbaro was nearly as fast as the best speed horses
in the Derby and finished like the race just started in the stretch.
Expect a somewhat softer pace, which should give two horses who
got a bad trip (Brother Derek) and a bad ride (Sweetnothernsaint)
an opportunity to be much more forwardly placed and more in their
comfort zone. Whichever of these three gets first run on the far turn
may be critical as the gap between Barbaro and the other two in the
Derby is really not as large as the Derby margin.
Withers winner Bernardini should contribute to the pace, but, with
just three lifetime races and no Derby experience, it is hard to see
him being around at the finish.
If this field comes out of the first turn the same way the Derby field
did, with say Bernardini and Like Now battling for the lead and
Barbaro sitting third, well clear of the rest, the race is over. Brother
Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint must hang with Barbaro early to
have any chance to beat him late.
MAIN CONTENDERS: Barbaro was awesome in the Derby,
tracking a fast pace and exploding in the stretch. Even more
impressive, he kept rolling after the wire in the gallop out. By the
time he got around the first turn, the big colt was 20 lengths ahead
of the second horse. When horses are supposed to be getting tired,
Barbaro wanted more to do.
Brother Derek had no chance in the Derby from the 18 post. He was
five-wide on the first turn and eight-wide on the second turn. With
a smaller field, he should be much closer to the pace, not nearly as
wide and able to show his best stuff. Sweetnorthernsaint made a
huge middle move in the Derby, but it was very premature and cost
him late. With a better-timed ride, he is dangerous.
VALUE PLAYS: Brother Derek will be evaluated off the Derby
instead of all those dominating wins in California. That may be a
mistake.
• $100 Exacta: BARBARO over BROTHER DEREK
STATS & TRENDS:
Since 1970, ten horses who finished fifth
or worse in the Kentucky Derby have
rebounded to win the Preakness. They
include: Point Given (2001), Louis Quatorze
(1996), Tabasco Cat (1994), Hansel (1991)
and Snow Chief (1986).
2005 PREAKNESS HANDLE TOTALS
Win-Place-Show: $22 million
Exacta: $13.5 million
Trifecta: $16 million
Superfecta: $5.3 million
Pick Four: $1.7 million
Pimlico Special/Preakness Double: $598,830
KNOW THIS:
Calumet Farm, the leading Preakness owner
with seven wins, was one of the great
dynasties in Thoroughbred history. Founded
by Warren Wright, Calumet Baking Powder
tycoon, and successfully carried on by his
widow Lucille and her husband Admiral Gene
Markey, Calumet Farm turned out champion
after champion from its Lexington, KY farm.
Calumet’s owned and bred Preakness winners
were Whirlaway (1941), Pensive (1944),
Faultless (1947), Citation (1948), Fabius (1956),
Tim Tam (1958) and Forward Pass (1968). The
victory by Forward Pass enabled the Kentucky
farm to break a longstanding tie with Harry
Payne Whitney as the leading breeder in
Preakness history with six wins each.
Calumet Farm topped the nation’s list of
leading money-winning owners 12 times
from 1941-1961. Calumet was sold by auction
to Henry DeKwiatkowski for $17 million on
March 26, 1992.
SELECTIONS:
1. BARBARO
2. BROTHER DEREK
4. HIGH FINANCE
CAN BARBARO POSSIBLY LOSE?
by Johnny D.
XpressBet and HRTV analyst
ANALYSIS: There’s no way Barbaro can lose the Preakness.
STATS & TRENDS:
Right? Wrong, backstretch-breath. You can bet Dan Hendricks,
trainer of Brother Derek, and Michael Trombetta, conditioner of
Sweetnorthernsaint, can envision more than a few scenarios in
which the Derby winner meets with defeat for the first time in his
sparkling career. What are those scenarios? Well, let’s begin with a
less-crowded field in the Preakness than raced in the Derby. That
means Bro D. and ‘Saint will position the favorite squarely in their
cross-hairs right out of the gate. That way they can attack him in
waves, forcing jockey Edgar Prado to move earlier than he wants
to. Even though it probably will be a short field, the post-position
draw for the Preakness will be important. Check back for Preakness
Wagering Guide updates beginning May 17.
War Emblem (2002), Charismatic (1999),
Little Current (1974), Royal Orbit (1959) and
Bold Venture (1936) are the only horses who
closed at odds of 20-to-1 or more in the
Kentucky Derby and returned to win the
Preakness.
MAIN CONTENDERS: Lately, the wagering public has been
omniscient in this race—the favorite has won the Preakness in the
last five years. Odds-on Preakness favorites have won 63% of the
time (17 for 27). Barbaro will be the favorite and should be odds-on.
Again, how can Barbaro possibly lose this race? Here are two more
ways: First, coming back in two weeks off a tremendous race might
be too much for him to handle. Second, a better trip for Brother
Derek than the brutally-wide one he had in the Derby will make
things much more interesting.
VALUE PLAYS: It’s hard to imagine anyone but Barbaro or
Brother Derek winning this race. Sweetnorthernsaint certainly has
a shot, but will get some serious play based on his local connections,
so there’s no value there. Like Now should get cooked up front,
so toss him from contention. Nick Zito will try the promising
Hemingway’s Key in the Preakness in order to prepare him for the
Belmont. Bernardini is undefeated and won the Withers in his last
start. A good performance from him at a decent price is not out of
the question.
• $1 Superfecta: BROTHER DEREK with BARBARO and
SWEETNORTHERNSAINT with ALL with ALL ($60)
• $40 Exacta: BROTHER DEREK over BARBARO
HIGHEST-PRICED PREAKNESS
RUNNERS IN SUPERFECTA
(Last 10 years)
58.00-to-1
45.70-to-1
25.20-to-1
21.10-to-1
20.00-to-1
Badge (1999, 3rd)
Magic Weisner (2002, 2nd)
Hot Wells (1998, 4th)
Sun King (2005, 4th)
Midway Road (2003, 2nd)
HEAVIEST PREAKNESS FAVORITES
(Last 10 years)
.30-to-1
.70-to-1
1.70-to-1
1.90-to-1
2.00-to-1
2.00-to-1
Fusachi Pegasus (2000, 2nd)
Smarty Jones (2004, 1st)
Cavonnier (1996, 4th)
Funny Cide (2003, 1st)
Menifee (1999, 2nd)
Victory Gallop (1998, 2nd)
KNOW THIS:
Nellie Morse was the last filly to win the
Preakness in 1924. Kentucky Derby-winning
filly Genuine Risk finished second to Codex
after a controversial incident as they turned
for home in 1980. The most recent filly to
run in the Preakness was Excellent Meeting
in 1999.
Stats & Trends and Preakness Betting Facts provided by
Jeremy Plonk, NBC Sports Triple Crown researcher and
editor of The Horseplayer Magazine.
SELECTIONS:
1. BROTHER DEREK
2. BARBARO
4. HEMINGWAY’S KEY

wagering guide

Transcription

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