The Demographic Dip: An Excuse or Imposing Reality?

The Demographic Dip: An Excuse or Imposing Reality?

The Demographic Dip
ALFA Annual Conference
May 9, 2013
Phil Downey
Senior Housing Analytics
571-423-8944
pdowney@senioranalytics.com
75+, 80+ and 85+ population, 1990-­‐2050
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
75+
25,000
80+
85+
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau: Projec2ons of the Popula2on by Age and Sex: 2015-­‐2080. (NP2012-­‐T12), Dec. 2012; Intercensal Es2mates of the Popula2on by Sex and Age 2000-­‐2010 (US-­‐EST00INT-­‐01), Sept 2011. -­‐
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Annual growth rates in the 75+ and 80+ U.S. population (from U.S. Census)
Compound annual growth rate over 5 yrs.
75+
80+
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau: Projec2ons of the Popula2on by Age and Sex: 2015-­‐2080. (NP2012-­‐T12), Dec. 2012; Intercensal Es2mates of the Popula2on by Sex and Age 2000-­‐2010 (US-­‐EST00INT-­‐01), Sept 2011. 3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
2045-­‐50
2040-­‐45
2035-­‐40
2030-­‐35
2025-­‐30
2020-­‐25
2015-­‐20
2010-­‐15
2005-­‐10
2000-­‐05
1995-­‐00
1990-­‐95
0.0%
Compound annual growth rates in the 75+ population (data source: U.S. Census)
1990-­‐‑9 5
1995-­‐‑0 0
2000-­‐‑0 5
2005-­‐‑1 0
2010-­‐‑1 5
2015-­‐‑2 0
2020-­‐‑2 5
2025-­‐‑3 0
2030-­‐‑3 5
2035-­‐‑4 0
2040-­‐‑4 5
2045-­‐‑5 0
75+
2.6%
2.3%
1.4%
0.9%
1.7%
2.8%
4.2%
3.8%
3.2%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
80+
3.2%
2.5%
2.3%
1.8%
1.4%
1.7%
3.3%
4.7%
3.9%
3.2%
1.8%
0.4%
85+
3.8%
3.1%
2.1%
3.3%
2.7%
1.2%
90+
5.1%
2.8%
1.9%
3.5%
5.2%
2.5%
75+ Compound annual growth rates, 5 year cohorts
2.0%
1.3%
3.9%
2.6%
5.3%
4.6%
4.0%
5.9%
3.2%
4.2%
1.7%
3.3%
75-­‐‑79
80-­‐‑84
85-­‐‑90
90+
1.8%
2.8%
3.2%
5.1%
2.1%
2.0%
3.2%
2.8%
0.1%
2.6%
2.1%
1.9%
-­‐‑0.4%
0.5%
3.3%
3.5%
2.1%
0.1%
1.2%
5.2%
4.3%
2.2%
0.3%
2.5%
5.3%
4.5%
2.5%
1.3%
2.6%
5.5%
4.8%
2.6%
2.2%
2.7%
5.7%
4.6%
0.3%
2.3%
2.9%
5.9%
-­‐‑1.3%
0.4%
2.5%
4.2%
-­‐‑0.4%
-­‐‑1.2%
0.5%
3.3%
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau: Projec2ons of the Popula2on by Age and Sex: 2015-­‐2080. (NP2012-­‐T12), Dec. 2012; Intercensal Es2mates of the Popula2on by Sex and Age 2000-­‐2010 (US-­‐EST00INT-­‐01), Sept 2011. 75+ U.S population growth, 5 year cohorts
18,000
16,000
75-­‐79 14,000
80-­‐84 12,000
85-­‐89 10,000
decline 2005-­‐‑10
8,000
90+ 80-­‐‑84
85-­‐‑90
90+
6,000
4,000
2,000
-­‐‑
75-­‐‑79
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
75-­‐‑79 6,104
6,669
7,416
7,464
7,313
8,102
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
10,010 12,955 14,722 16,431 16,640 15,569 15,243
14.0%
12.0%
75+ population CAGR (5 yr. intervals), Top 100 MSA's 1990-­‐2010
14.0%
12.0%
80+ population CAGR (5 yr. intervals), Top 100 MSA's 1990-­‐2010
Scranton, PA
New Orleans, LA
10.0%
Pittsburgh, PA
10.0%
Providence, RI
8.0%
8.0%
Tampa, FL
Worcester, MA
6.0%
6.0%
4.0%
4.0%
2.0%
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-­‐2.0%
1990-­‐1995
Max
10.7%
Min
1.3%
Median
2.8%
1995-­‐2000
7.2%
1.2%
2.6%
2000-­‐2005
4.8%
-­‐0.7%
1.5%
2005-­‐2010
3.9%
-­‐0.8%
1.4%
-­‐2.0%
1990-­‐1995
Max
12.7%
Min
1.5%
Median
3.6%
1995-­‐2000
6.9%
1.2%
2.7%
2000-­‐2005
6.7%
0.5%
2.7%
2005-­‐2010
4.5%
0.4%
2.1%
Data source: Geoly2cs Inc. NIC 100 seniors housing supply penetration of 75+ and 80+ population, 1990-­‐2010
12%
11%
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
75+ penetration
80+ penetration
Source: Senior Housing Analy2cs, A Projec2on of Market Rate U.S Seniors Housing Demand 2010-­‐2030,, American Seniors Housing Assn., Winter 2013 1990
4.66%
8.81%
1995
4.73%
8.66%
2000
5.93%
10.81%
2005
6.49%
11.08%
2010
6.73%
11.02%
Projection of annual U. S. demand growth (based on 2010 supply Annual demand penetration for 75+ and 80+ population at 90% occupancy)
growth (units/year) 90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
Source: Senior Housing Analy2cs, A Projec2on of Market Rate U.S Seniors Housing Demand 2010-­‐2030,, American Seniors Housing Assn., Winter 2013 10,000
0
75+ penetration
80+ penetration
Midrange
2010-­‐15
19,839
16,620
18,230
2015-­‐20
36,777
21,714
29,245
2020-­‐25
64,721
46,628
55,675
2025-­‐30
71,451
81,737
76,594
Absorption, NIC 100: Maj. IL and Maj. AL communities
Adj factor for Pe riod Total absorption nursing be ds: .97
4Q08-­‐‑3Q09 5,299
5,134
4Q09-­‐‑3Q10 11,260
10,911
4Q10-­‐‑3Q11 13,809
13,381
4Q11-­‐‑3Q12 14,115
13,677
Average 11,121
10,776
Est avg since 2010 13,580
13,159
Source: NIC MAP
Units open per year, 1990-­‐2010
50,000
Total
ILU
AL+MCU
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Source: NIC 2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
0