Microfinance Institutions - India Ratings and Research
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Microfinance Institutions - India Ratings and Research
Microfinance Institutions Financial Services Microfinance: Strong Comeback Sector to Grow 24% Annually Over FY15-FY19 Special Report Microfinance Alive and Kicking: The microfinance sector is growing and attracting banks and private equity (PE) investors again, says India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra). However, this time the growth is much lower than the over 100% annual growth seen during FY06-FY10 and benefits from a tighter supervisory regime. The sector‟s outreach increased over 23% yoy and gross loan portfolio grew 42% yoy in FY14. Ind-Ra expects the sector to grow at a CAGR of 24% and require an equity infusion of INR27bn over FY15-FY19. Regulations De-risking MFIs: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has now emerged as the central regulator for non-banking financial companies-MFIs (NBFC-MFIs; covering 90% of the MFI universe). In addition to placing limits and defining procedures for MFI operations, RBI guidelines have led to the establishment/prominence of credit information bureaus (CIB) such as Equifax Credit Information Services Private Limited (Equifax) and CRIF High Mark Credit Information Services (Highmark) and self-regulatory organisations (SROs) - Microfinance Institutions Network (MFIN) and Sa-Dhan. It is mandatory for NBFC-MFIs to be members of at least one CIB and one SRO to ensure credit checks and process adherence, respectively. Most states barring Andhra Pradesh seem to have accepted the role of RBI to regulate NBFCMFIs and have not invoked the Money Lenders Act to regulate MFI operations. The Microfinance Bill 2012 is pending in Parliament of India; if passed, it may eliminate the possibility of an AP-like event in future. Emerged Stronger from the AP Crisis: Ind-Ra believes the growth of MFIs is sustainable in view of interest rate and margin caps, defined recovery procedures, caps on borrower indebtedness and credit check procedures. Limitations have been placed on the earlier observed lacunae of MFI operations. The Joint Lending Group (JLG) model has survived and is the main reason of the high recovery rates of over 98% in non-AP states. Many MFIs are spreading operations in several states so as to minimise the impact of an AP-like event. Funding Improves with Restored Confidence: MFIs have demonstrated strong growth in the face of stringent regulations and limitations on lending, indicating that their model is strong and viable. Also, RBI has maintained the priority sector status for lending to MFIs for microfinance operations. As a result, bank funding that had dried up in the aftermath of the AP crisis is again available to MFIs. Bank borrowing and securitisation deals for NBFC-MFIs increased to INR274bn in FY14 from around INR206bn in FY12 and FY13. The sector is again attracting PE participation (FY14: USD160m; FY15 till date: USD152m). Given the growth trajectory of the sector, we estimate that the sector will require INR27bn (USD449m) of equity infusion over FY15-FY19. Analysts Jindal Haria +91 22 4000 1750 jindal.haria@indiaratings.co.in Cyrus Dadabhoy +91 22 4000 1723 cyrus.dadabhoy@indiaratings.co.in Evolution on the Cards: The government‟s focus on financial inclusion and introduction of new delivery models such as business correspondents (BC) and small banks could intensify competition for NBFC-MFIs and simultaneously present evolutionary opportunities to them. An orderly evolution can have several positive impacts, including lower costs for borrowers and greater systemic stability. www.indiaratings.co.in 30 January 2015 Microfinance Institutions Possibilities and Business Models for MFIs Microfinance is a one-dimensional business, providing credit to borrowers with limited access to formal banking channels. The Indian government has over the years initiated various schemes, under which bank accounts have been opened for the unbanked. Competition with various existing and new microfinance delivery models, government thrust for financial inclusion through public sector banks and relative credit saturation in some districts could prod NBFC-MFIs to evolve into multi-services providers to the poor and the unbanked. Increased Competition: The Jan Dhan scheme launched by the new government could provide millions with access to banks and banking services. The number of BCs increased by over 10x between FY10-FY14. Though efficiency of the BC model can be debated, there is no denying that it could be a tough competitor to MFIs. Furthermore, market reports suggest that some districts are saturated by micro-credits (within the extant RBI guidelines), especially in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. Differentiated banking licences and norms on rural branches for scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) could pose a threat to MFIs‟ operations in form of competition or an opportunity for evolution. With around 120 million accounts opened in a matter of months, the scale and speed of the Jan Dhan scheme have not been witnessed earlier. However, we believe that competition between banks and MFIs could intensify only after four to five years when these large scale inclusion programmes and diversified banks are established and achieve traction. This also provides MFIs with a window to consolidate and grow based on their simple process and documentation and the ability to closely interact with customers, deliver speedy and timely credit at customer door-step, and to evolve into entities providing a range of financial services. Opportunity to Make Strategic Shifts: The sector could see a high level of changes and dynamism given the government‟s focus on financial inclusion. The speed at which the BC model is adopted, the efficiency of the model as well as of emerging differentiated banking models can provide opportunities to MFIs. MFIs may require evolving their models to serve their customers rather than handing them over to banks on a platter. BCs: BCs tie up with banks and provide access to borrowers to the partner bank‟s services and assist the borrowers with banking processes through client servicing points (CSPs). The Indian banking system set up over 3,00,000 CSPs by FY14 (FY10: 34,200). However, the efficacy of the model leaves much to be desired. NBFC-MFIs have now been permitted by RBI to act as BCs to SCBs. This could be an opportunity especially for many smaller MFIs to compete with larger MFIs and remain in business. Differentiated banking licences: RBI plans to establish payment banks and small banks in proximity to borrowers. For an NBFC-MFI, this license could mean access to low-cost funds (savings) and greater legitimacy in lending operations. Mid and large-sized NBFCMFIs could opt for the conversion to a small bank and evolve into a holistic financial services provider. Indian MFIs Could Follow Global MFIs: Most regulated MFIs in the world‟s 15 countries with the largest MFI operations have access to savings as low-cost funds (Appendix 14). Although savings could be partially ring-fenced, these regulated MFIs can provide a suite of services to borrowers. In some countries in South and Central America, MFIs have migrated from group lending to individual lending models. Some countries also allow MFIs to fund MSMEs. Applicable Criteria Financial Institutions Rating Criteria (September 2012) Non-Bank Finance Companies Criteria (September 2012) Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 In a bid to further the objective of financial inclusion, RBI could be somewhat liberal in the issuance of small bank licences to NBFC-MFIs. RBI could, on being reasonably confident of the sector, also relax the norms of qualifying assets and permit higher borrower indebtedness as well as expansion in the scope of financial services provided by MFIs, making them important participants in financial inclusion. 2 Microfinance Institutions 1. Re-emerging from the Crisis Gradually The microfinance sector grew 40% yoy in FY14 which is still a far cry from the scorching pace of growth of MFIs in their heydays (FY06-FY10) - Appendix 1. The sector has re-emerged from the debilitating effects of the AP crisis (Appendix 2) and is experiencing strong, structural and sustainable growth. The sector is back in favour with commercial banks (supported by RBI‟s continued recognition of priority sector to microfinance) and PE investors. PE investors pumped in USD160m in FY14 and USD152m in FY15 till date. RBI has acknowledged the role of MFIs in financial inclusion and brought out a set of guidelines. It has emerged as a central regulator for NBFC-MFIs and imparted a sense of stability and regulatory certainty to an extent to the sector. 1.1. RBI Intervention Leads to a Stable Regulatory Environment RBI had appointed a committee under Y. Malegam (Malegam committee) to suggest the operational paradigms for microfinance operations and suitable regulatory structures. The incumbent regulatory structure was pertaining to NBFCs in general and did not address the specific needs of regulating MFIs. RBI issued a set of guidelines in December 2011 (Appendix 3) based on the Malegam Committee report, which led to the recognition of a new class of NBFCs: NBFC-MFIs. These guidelines made it clear that RBI acknowledged the role of MFIs in financial inclusion and that is expected to continue in future. The guidelines led to the establishment of Credit Information Bureaus (CIBs) and Self-Regulatory Organisations (SROs). CIBs provide, maintain and update borrower records of the loans availed, payment history, etc. They enable MFIs to perform credit checks on borrowers before providing credit (Appendix 4). SROs act as industry representative to various forums as well as a check on compliance of NBFC-MFIs to the code of conduct based on RBI guidelines. Member MFIs report operational data periodically to SROs. (Appendix 4) RBI also allowed NBFC-MFIs to act as BCs (Appendix 5) since their reach is deeper than banks especially in unbanked villages and their employees/agents have closer and frequent contacts with locals; they can facilitate deeper penetration of banking products through tie-ups with various banks. 1.2. Growth Revival in Loan Portfolio and Outreach RBI‟s acknowledgement that MFIs perform a very important role in financial inclusion of the poor provides legitimacy to the regulated operations of MFIs. However, in a controlled environment and where market participants have not shown enthusiasm for the sector, MFIs managed respectable growth from FY12-FY14. In fact, total loans outstanding grew over 40% in FY14. Figure 1 Gross Loans Outstanding of NBFC-MFIs (INRbn) 279 300 250 200 163 183 179 FY11 FY12 197 150 89 100 50 14 36 0 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY13 FY14 Source: Sa-Dhan, MFIN, Ind-Ra Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 3 Microfinance Institutions Figure 2 NBFC-MFIs grew their loan portfolio over 40% yoy in FY14. Growth in Gross Loan Outstanding NBFC-MFIs are only for-profit legal form of MFIs and hence enjoy higher growth. They account for over 90% of MFI loan portfolios. (%) Most large MFIs converted into for profit NBFC-MFIs between FY08 and FY10. Growth in MFI 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 158 Growth in NBFCs-MFIs 150 97 83 72 56 37 18 FY08 FY09 Source: Sa-Dhan, MFIN, Ind-Ra FY10 12 FY11 7 -2 -3 FY12 42 10 FY13 FY14 The MFI universe consists of NBFCs, NGOs/societies, and Section 25 companies. RBI acknowledged the importance of the role of MFIs in financial inclusion since it was a provider of credit about 30 million poor households in FY11. MFIs are often present where banks are not and provide doorstep facilities to borrowers. This reflects in the growing number of borrowers from these MFIs. Figure 4 Figure 3 Borrower Growth Client Outreach (%) (m) 20 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Source: Sa-Dhan, MFIN, Ind-Ra 31 31 28 27 27 FY10 Source: Sa-Dhan, MFIN, Ind-Ra FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Figure 5 In FY11-FY14, per capita outstanding increased by about 40% on a nominal basis but only by 14% on an inflation adjusted basis. Substantial growth in the MFI loan portfolio is due to an increase in penetration and not higher borrower indebtedness. Average Outstanding Loans Per Borrower Avg loan size (INR) CPI adjusted (base 2011) 12,000 9,708 10,000 8,000 6,997 7,668 8,160 6,621 6,955 6,766 FY11 FY12 FY13 6,621 6,000 4,000 7,533 2,000 0 FY10 FY14 Source: MFIN, Sa-Dhan 1.3. Geographic Diversification Ensued The sector is decreasing its dependence on the south, especially AP, and establishing a greater proportion of new branches in Uttar Pradesh (UP), Maharashtra, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh (MP). MFIs are spreading geographically because of the following two main reasons: 1. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 Minimise the possibility of an AP-like event: MFIs with a higher proportion of loans in AP suffered and many were restructured. 4 Microfinance Institutions 2. Possible saturation in some districts: Though there are no studies on the level of penetration of MFIs in districts, discussions with MFIs, SROs and CIBs indicate that some districts in West Bengal (WB), Tamil Nadu (TN) and Karnataka are witnessing micro-credit saturation rejection rates at CIB of 25%-30% (all India average: 15%-20%). Figure 6 Between 1QFY14 and 2QFY15, NBFCMFIs increased their branches by 33% in MP, 30% in UP and 28% in Maharashtra. Rapid Growth in Branches in Underpenetrated States Q2FY15 MP 513 Bihar 540 UP FY13 683 673 751 578 MH 873 682 KA 859 944 936 AP 1,082 1,355 1,318 1,364 1,348 1,400 TN WB 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,600 Source: Sa-Dhan, MFIN Figure 7 Share of South India in MFI loan portfolio decreased to 39% in FY14 from 61% in FY08. Regional Distribution of MFI Loans Outstanding (%) Region South East North West Central North East 2008 61 20 1 7 9 1 2009 58 20 3 6 11 1 2010 55 21 3 8 9 3 2011 48 20 3 12 13 3 2012 49 23 4 8 10 6 2013 46 22 4 10 11 7 2014 39 25 4 12 15 5 Source: Sa-Dhan, MFIN Performance of MFIs in the states with larger MFI operations has been illustrated in Appendix 6. 1.4. PE and Debt Funding Returns Banks have shown greater confidence in the sector and increased their funding to NBFCs through debt and also securitisation primarily due to two reasons: The sector has begun to perform well under relative regulatory certainty On-lending to NBFC-MFIs is considered priority sector lending Securitisation of MFI loans also has priority sector benefits Figure 8 Bank Borrowings and Securitisation Borrowings (INRbn outstanding) 250 207 200 Securitised portfolio 207 178 170 28 37 34 FY11 FY12 FY13 222 150 100 50 20 0 FY10 51 FY14 Source: Sa-Dhan, MFIN PE players are showing renewed interest in the sector, even when it is growing at a relatively moderate pace (FY14: about 40%) as against over 100% growth in pre-AP crisis years. It is important that PE players maintain their interest in the sector since it will require equity funding to finance growth. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 5 Microfinance Institutions Figure 9 Private Equity Investment (USDm) 180 165 163 137 150 120 160 152 FY14 FY15 (till Nov) 93 83 90 149 60 30 4 16 0 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 Source: VC Circle 1.5. Operational Performance Improved RBI, in its guidelines for NBFC-MFIs, has placed caps on the margins of NBFC-MFIs at 10% for MFIs with total assets above INR1.0bn and 12% for MFIs with total assets below INR1.0bn. The interest rates have a cap of 2.75x the bank rate of SCBs as notified by RBI from time to time. In addition, MFIs have two main cost components: Finance costs (fees and interest on borrowings) and operating costs (admin and overhead costs and employee costs). Effectively, revenue upsides have been capped by RBI while MFIs have little control over finance costs. MFIs can control only operating costs to increase return on assets (RoAs). Operating costs for the sector declined to 8.4% of loan portfolio in FY14 of the loan portfolio from 10.3% in FY13. This was the result of more borrowers/branches and borrowers/loan officer, a drop in the number of employees and loan officers, and increased share of field staff (Appendix 7). The number of branches and MFI staff decreased while the outreach or the number of borrowers increased to 31 million in FY14 from 27 million in FY11. Figure 10 Operating Costs, Branches and Staff Branches (LHS) (000) 140 10.3 9.3 8.8 100 111.8 80 40 Operating expense/loan portfolio (RHS) (%) 12 120 60 Staff (LHS) 9.9 93.3 87.0 64.4 8.2 10 8 75.7 6 4 7.3 10.4 12.7 13.6 0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 20 8.4 114.7 11.5 FY12 10.7 2 0 FY13 Source: Sa-Dhan, mixmarket.org 2. Ind-Ra’s View on the Sector Ind-Ra is of the view that MFIs are set for sustained, stable medium-term growth till FY19 based on the sector performance in the aftermath of AP crisis and the emerging landscape of microfinance, with the government‟s thrust on financial inclusion and diversified banking licenses. We expect that the other models of microfinance delivery (BC, small banks, Self Help Group or SHG) could achieve traction by FY19, by then the current RBI guidelines may have a larger impact in limiting the growth of existing MFIs in their current form. MFIs could evolve their operations over the next five years to provide a full range of financial services to the poor and withstand competition on a strong footing. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 6 Microfinance Institutions 2.1. Stage Set for Growth over Medium Term Ind-Ra expects MFIs to grow at a CAGR of about 25% for about four to five years by increasing their outreach and disbursements per borrower. However, the growth expectations are constrained by the evolution of differentiated banking, banking penetration through the BC model and government initiatives such as Jan Dhan and the impact of these models. 2.1.1.Estimates of Market Size An analysis of 15 countries with largest MFI operations reveals that average loan outstanding per borrower is 18.7% of per capita GDP while it is 10.8% in India. Also, microfinance penetration (borrowers) is above 30% in some countries while it is about 10% in India (SHGbank linkage and MFIs together). Figure 11 Microfinance Market Potential Wt. average outstanding per borrower as % of per capita GDP (Top 15 countries with MFI operations) Wt. average outstanding per borrower as % of per capita GDP for India Average outstanding per borrower - India (2013) (A) Potential growth in per capita outstanding (B) (%) Potential per capita outstanding - India (C) = (A) + (A)*(B) Households with no access to credit (D) Size of market outstanding basis (USD) = (C)*(D) *70% a Current microfinance outstanding (SHG and MFI) 18.7 10.8 USD163 72 USD280 180m USD35bn USD12bn All analysis on outstanding basis; 1USD = INR60 a Outstanding portfolio is about 70% of disbursements Source: RBI, World Bank, Mix Markets, Ind-Ra The microfinance universe can grow up to 3x its current size, indicating there is high latent demand for micro-credit. 2.1.2.Caution in Newer Large Markets MFIs are now taking up the challenge and growing in previously underserved states due to the following reasons: 1. Faster expansion since RBI has through its guidelines tried to limit competition in markets currently served 2. Since an MFI customer cannot borrow from more than two MFIs, some regions/districts may have reached saturation. Discussions with market participants led us to believe that some districts in WB, TN and Karnataka are facing 25%-30% rejection rates at CIBs. The new growth states such as MP, UP have shown higher defaults in the SHG-Bank linkage programme than the South Indian states (Appendix 8). We expect that the JLG structure will offer MFIs some protection against credit behaviours in these states (Appendix 16); however, MFIs need to keep a watchful eye on portfolio quality, especially in these states. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 7 Microfinance Institutions Figure 12 NPAs Under SHG Programme (FY14) NPAs NPAs Under Under SHG SHG Programme Programme (FY14) (FY14) Growth in MFI Branches (Q1FY14 to Q2FY15) Growth Growth in in MFI MFI Branches Branches (Q1FY14 (Q1FY14 to to Q2FY15) Q2FY15) www.indzara.blogspot.com www.indzara.blogspot.com Jammu Jammu and and Kashmir Kashmir Jammu Jammu and and Kashmir Kashmir Himachal Himachal Pradesh Pradesh P unjab Chandigarh P unjab Chandigarh Uttarakhand Uttarakhand Haryana Haryana Del hi Del hi Uttar Pradesh Uttar Pradesh Rajasthan Rajasthan Gujarat Gujarat Madhya Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Daman Daman and Diu and Diu Dadra and Arunachal Arunachal P radesh P radesh Sikkim Sikkim Assam Nagaland Assam Meghalaya Nagaland Meghalaya Manipur Manipur Bihar Bihar Jharkhand Jharkhand West Mizoram West Bengal Bengal Gujarat Gujarat Arabian Arabian Sea Sea Goa Goa Lakshadweep Lakshadweep Sikkim Sikkim Assam Assam Meghalaya Meghalaya Bihar Bihar Jharkhand Jharkhand Madhya Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Daman Daman and Diu and DadraDiu and Odisha Odisha Arunachal Arunachal Pradesh Pradesh Uttar Pradesh Uttar Pradesh Rajasthan Rajasthan Tripura Tripura Mizoram Nagar Dadra Haveli and Nagar Haveli Maharashtra Maharashtra Himachal Himachal Pradesh Pradesh Chandigarh Chandigarh Uttarakhand Uttarakhand Haryana Haryana Delhi Delhi Punjab Punjab Nagaland Nagaland Manipur Manipur Tripura Tripura Mizoram Mizoram West West Bengal Bengal Odisha Odisha Nagar Haveli Dadra and Nagar Haveli Telangana Telangana Andhra Andhra Pradesh Pradesh P uducherry Tamil NaduP uducherry Tamil Nadu Indian Ocean Indian Ocean Maharashtra Maharashtra Bay Bay of of Bengal Bengal Telangana Telangana Goa Arabian Goa Arabian Sea Sea Andaman Andaman and and Nicobar >25% Nicobar Islands >25% Islands >25% >10%,<20% >10%,<20% Colour Gradient >10%,<20% Colour Gradient >0%, Lowest<10%, (Red) to Highest (Green) >0%, Lowest (Red) to Highest (Green) >0%,<10%, <10%, <0% <0% <0% Lakshadweep Lakshadweep Andhra Andhra Pradesh Pradesh Puducherry Puducherry Tamil Nadu Tamil Nadu Bay Bay of of Bengal Bengal <5% <5% >5%,<10% <10% >5%, Andaman Andaman and and Nicobar >10%,<13% <13% >10%, >13%,<15% <15% >13%, >15% >15% Nicobar Islands Islands Map not to scale Map not to scale Source: Ind-Ra 2.1.3.Growth and Penetration Expectations The growth that MFIs are experiencing now is structured, planned and systematic without unbridled competition for the same set of borrowers. The growth of MFI portfolio is affected by loans outstanding per borrower and increased penetration or borrower outreach. Ind-Ra understands from market participants that the outreach can increase at the rate of 12% CAGR over the medium term as the number of branches is increasing in previously underserved regions. Further, the actual number of unique borrowers could be less since the SROs add up the number of borrowers of individual MFIs; some borrowers could be counted twice. The annual growth in outreach (number of borrowers as reported by SROs) in 1QFY15 was about 23%. Figure 13 Loan outstanding per borrower or average ticket size is likely to increase at the rate of FY14 nominal GDP growth rate (11.5%). MFIs were focused on increasing penetration in FY14. MFIN quarterly data shows that the outreach increased to 26.49 million in 1QFY15 from 21.54 million in 1QFY14, implying growth of 23%. Growth Expectation in Borrower Outreach and Average Ticket Size FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 50 38.6 40 42.4 45.8 34.4 29.9 25.4 30 20 10.0 11.1 12.3 13.5 14.8 16.3 10 0 Average ticket size (INR 000s) Source: MFIN, Ind-Ra Borrower outreach (m) Ind-Ra expects the sector to grow at a CAGR of 24% over the medium term given the confines of RBI guidelines, an assumption that an AP-like crisis does not occur and the Microfinance Bill (Appendix 9) does not impose debilitating conditions on the sector. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 8 Microfinance Institutions Figure 14 Portfolio Size Estimates and Growth in Medium Term Portfolio size (LHS) (INRbn) Growth (RHS) (%) 748 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 32 35 629 27 30 520 25 23 422 21 332 19 20 15 253 10 5 0 FY14 Source: Ind-Ra FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 The microfinance market can grow 3x its current size over FY15-FY19. The SHG programme is not showing much growth since FY11 in terms of credit outreach. Hence, MFIs can obtain an increased share of the microfinance lending business. We estimate that MFIs can increase their portfolio from USD5.0bn in FY14 to USD12bn in FY19 while SHG lending could increase to USD12bn from USD7bn. However, a credit demand-supply gap of USD11bn still will remain. Figure 15 Latent Credit Demand-Supply MFI (USDbn) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 SHG Credit gap 11 11 7 13 5 FY14 Source: NABARD, MFIN, Sa-Dhan, Ind-Ra, RBI (nominal growth rate) FY19 2.2. Profitability Expectations Average RoAs and return on equity (RoE) improved from 2011-2012. However, they were also limited by a cap on margins and minimum operating costs for delivery of microfinance products during that time. Periodic physical interaction with borrowers and doorstep delivery is a manpower-intensive method of providing services and will have high delivery costs. NBFC-MFIs have operating costs in the range of 8%-13%. Any further increase in the profitability will be driven by a reduction in operating costs or by increasing other income through cross selling or acting as banking correspondents. Any margin pressure in case of regulatory changes will adversely impact the return ratios. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 9 Microfinance Institutions Figure 16 RoA Tree and Expected Returns Gross loan portfolio (GLP) above INR1.0bn 10 11.5 2 GLP below INR1.0bn 12 13.8 2 13.5 8-10 15.8 10-13 Pre provisioning profit (%) Provisioning (%) Pre-tax profit (%) Tax (%) RoA (%) Leverage (x) 3.5-5.5 1 2.5-4.5 0.8-1.5 1.7-3 6 2.8-5.8 1 1.8-4.8 0.6-1.6 1.2-3.2 4-5 RoE (%) 10.2-18 4.8-12.8 RoA Tree and expected returns Spread (%) Margin (%) Fees and other income (%) Total income (%) Operating costs (%) Comments RBI stipulation (based on asset size) Minimum Tier 1: 15% 1% can be charged - RBI stipulation, disbursement usually 30% higher than GLP Estimates based on experience of MFIs 33% Lower leverage for MFIs with GLP below INR1.0bn because of lower bankability Source: Ind-Ra 2.3. INR27bn Equity Infusion Likely over Medium Term Most MFIs have been maintaining tier 1 capital at 18%-25% as against the RBI stipulation of minimum 7.5%. Given the bitter past experience, we believe that most MFIs will maintain excess capital and will consider fund raising at the threshold levels of 20% of tier 1 capital. Within the confines of RBI regulations, our calculations in the previous section suggest that the largest 20-25 MFIs could maintain RoE in the range of 10%-18%. For our calculations of capital requirement, we assumed average RoE at 15% and tier 1 capital at 20%. The capital requirement could be higher if: Under our assumptions of 28% loan book CAGR over FY15-FY19, the NBFC-MFI universe is likely to require INR27bn (USD449m) of equity investments. The requirements are likely to change if some MFIs are converted into small banks. 1. MFIs with lower tier 1 capital could bring it to par with better capitalised MFIs 2. MFIs could raise equity for non-microcredit portion of their business 3. MFIs could require higher capital if they opt for conversion to small banks Figure 17 Capital Requirement Min incremental capital required Profit Equity funding required (INRbn) 25 20 18 21 17 16 14 15 10 24 22 20 11 9 7 7 5 5 3 5 0 FY15 Source: Ind-Ra FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 2.4. Lower Probability of AP-like Crisis The AP crisis (Appendix 2) happened because of unbridled competition among MFIs, absence of sector-specific regulations, process dilution, high interest rates and aggressive recovery techniques. AP brought out the AP Microfinance Act in December 2010 (Ordinance in October 2010) which put severe restrictions on MFIs‟ operations in the state. Some large MFIs that were restructured had over 50% of their portfolios in AP. Much has changed since then. RBI is now the central regulator for NBFC-MFIs (which cover over 90% of MFI borrowers). It has issued guidelines for various operational facets of MFIs‟ Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 10 Microfinance Institutions operations, which have reduced credit and operational risks (Appendix 3). The guidelines have resulted in interest rate caps, limit on loan amounts, limit on the number of micro-loans that a borrower can avail and specifications for micro-loan tenor. MFIs are required to adhere to capital stipulations, follow benign recovery means and exhibit transparency in interest and other charges. This has limited the growth in loan portfolios and returns of MFIs (compared to pre-AP crisis period). However, the RBI guidelines have resulted in stable growth, a steady micro-finance structure and a higher degree of compliance to the code of conduct. It is also mandatory for MFIs to conduct credit checks on borrowers through credit bureaus (Equifax and Highmark) before disbursement (Appendix 4). This prevents indiscriminate lending by MFIs and enables evaluation of borrower loan history and client borrowing against RBI stipulations. RBI has appointed MFIN as the SRO for NBFC-MFIs (which covered about 90% of microfinance loan portfolio in FY14) and intends to implement a strong code of conduct and self-regulation through the SRO (Appendix 4). Sa-Dhan is another body which has non-profit MFIs among its members in addition to NBFC-MFIs. No state other than Andhra Pradesh has decided to invoke provisions of the Money Lenders‟ Act to regulate MFI operations. The central government is evaluating the Microfinance Bill (Appendix 9) to regulate microfinance operations. It was presented to the Parliamentary Standing Committee in February 2014, which recommended the Finance Ministry to carry out further studies especially on regulations, low interest microfinance programmes present in some states and consumer protection in the sector. The Microfinance Bill if passed could eliminate the possibilities of an AP-like event. Figure 18 Summary of Major Changes in MFI Sector RBI has clearly defined process, rates and code of conduct RBI has emerged as the central regulator of NBFC-MFI • • • This limits the scope of interference by individual state governments, which could have otherwise used the Money Lenders Act to control MFIs. It also provides huge legitimacy to the sector and improves MFI‟s access to funds from the commercial banking sector. • • Margins have been capped at 10% for large MFIs, thus limiting the scope for charging excessive interest rates. Insurance expense and processing fees are the only charges that an MFI can levy. Recovery practices have been clearly defined. Low Risk CIBs provide an efficient monitoring mechanism Geographic diversification has ensured lower exposure to a state • • • High indebtedness in AP was an outcome of absence of any customer-related credit information. CIBs generate an exception report when more than two MFIs lend to a single borrower, thus acting as a check on MFIs. • Top five AP-based MFIs had over 35% of their portfolios in AP. Many MFIs have begun to diversify into multiple states, partly under the fear of APlike event and partly in search of growth opportunities. Source: Ind-Ra Passage of MFI Bill Last Step towards Ensuring Regulatory Certainty Since NBFC-MFIs are regulated by the central regulator, some MFI constituencies are of the view that the state has no role in regulating NBFC-MFIs. However, for the central bank‟s authority to regulate MFIs to become a law, the Microfinance Bill has to be passed by the Indian parliament (Appendix 9). Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 11 Microfinance Institutions In our opinion, the major objections raised by the Parliamentary Standing Committee now either have sufficient mitigants (considering global experience of the sector) or do not take into account the difference between MFI and bank lending. Figure 19 Why Has the Microfinance Bill Not Been Passed So Far? Key objections to the MFI bill The bill proposed RBI as regulator for MFIs High interest rates of 26% charged (some government programmes charge 12%) Silent on multiple lending, coercive recovery and overindebtedness Global experience (top 17 Current mitigants countries MFI operations) RBI is the regulator for NBFC-MFIs (90% of MFI Mixed models of regulation universe) for various forms of MFIs Our analysis reveals Indian MFIs charge interest rates up to 3x the bank rate while global average is 4.5x the bank rates (Appendix 9) RBI has defined limits and procedures in regulations for NBFC-MFIs Independent client protection agency or respective central banks Source: Ind-Ra 2.5. Competitive Environment, Regulations Favouring Incumbents The RBI regulations on borrower indebtedness have indirectly resulted in lowering the competitive levels among MFIs. The key regulations to that effect are not more than two MFIs can lend to the same borrower and a spread cap of 10% for large MFIs and 12% for small MFIs. The cumulative impact of these regulations is lower competition. A few scenarios could be: 1. Suppose two MFIs are already dominant players in a particular village. 2. A new entrant in this village will most likely have to tap new borrowers, who may not be easily available as the existing two MFIs have tapped most of the potential customers. 3. Thus, the costs for the new entrant will be significantly higher and the 10% spread cap will make the MFI‟s business model unviable or less profitable. Thus, incumbents have an inherent competitive advantage. However, this does not prevent a large MFI or a corporate house acquiring an MFI. 2.5.1.Increasing Share of Larger MFIs Figure 21 Category of NBFC-MFI GLP >INR5.0bn Large INR1.0bn>GLP<INR5.0bn Mid-sized GLP<INR1.0bn Small Midsized MFIs are increasing their share of borrower outreach. Large MFIs have seen a marginal dip in their share while small MFIs have seen a significant decrease in their share. Figure 20 Increasing Share of Large MFIs GLP: Gross loan portfolio Source: Ind-Ra glp>5 (INRbn) 100% 80% 12.7% glp 1-5 (INRbn) glp < 1 (INRbn) 3.1% 3.0% 3.4% 2.6% 13.7% 12.9% 17.3% 14.2% 83.3% 83.7% 79.6% 83.2% FY12 FY13 FY14 2QFY15 15.7% 60% 40% 71.6% 20% 0% FY11 Source: MFIN We expect mid- and large-sized MFIs, especially with strong holds in certain areas, to continue to operate profitably for the medium term. Many small MFIs may have to merge with mid- or large-sized MFIs or adopt the BC model to remain profitable. Small MFIs may also face difficulty in obtaining bank funding, securitisations deals, or attract PE and hence this raises Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 12 Microfinance Institutions questions on their long-term viability unless they have specific niches or operate in a particular state. This may expose them to state specific legislation risk. 2.5.2.High Entry Barriers The root of AP crisis was unsustainable MFI debt outstanding per household. This was a consequence of intense competition to acquire clients and thereby grow loan books. There were instances of four to five MFIs operating in a single village. In its guidelines, RBI has built in provisions to lower competitive intensity by increasing operating costs for late entrants in the same local area. An individual cannot be a member of more than two JLGs and credit checks to be carried out before disbursement. Due to the above provision, incremental cost for a new entrant to find suitable members and foster credit behaviour is high and therefore a deterrent. There have been only two new entrants among NBFC-MFIs since 2011; Svatantra Microfin Private Limited of Birla group started operations in March 2013 and Altura Financial Services Ltd, registered in Delhi in FY14. However, a large corporate house may be able to enter into the sector by acquiring an MFI without any significant entry barriers. 2.5.3.Competitive Landscape May Change with New Structures Over the past few years, the government is increasingly focusing on financial inclusion as a means to reduce poverty and bring the unbanked into the mainstream. The thrust of the programmes is through banks. During 2005-2010, banks opened over 100 million bank accounts supposedly to be used for MGNREGA payments, pension etc. However, surveys reveal that these were generally target-driven programmes for the ministry and banks and over 70% accounts were dormant. The new government has launched the Jan Dhan scheme (Appendix 10) that proposes to open bank accounts for the unbanked with many facilities such as insurance, overdraft along with savings accounts. Furthermore, RBI has issued banking licence to Bandhan Financial Services (Bandhan), possibly for its role in financial inclusion (Appendix 11). Competition from Jan Dhan Driven Bank Credit If an overdraft facility is extended to all Jan Dhan account holders (as on 31 October 2014), it would imply a credit of INR340bn (as large as the SHG programme). There has been no experience of Indian banks extending unsecured credit at individual level of this magnitude and hence portfolio performance cannot be estimated. Our view is that it would be difficult for RBI to accept individual lending through Jan Dhan accounts without collateral. Press reports suggest that even banks are sceptical about extending an overdraft facility to Jan Dhan account holders. Furthermore, the following advantages of MFIs over banks still exist: Collateral free credit Speed and timely availability of credit Door step delivery; no opportunity cost of multiple bank visits Less complex documentation; banks still viewed as complex entities There could be a marginal loss of market share for MFIs, although it may not be disruptive in the mid-term. Full-fledged credit could be made available to Jan Dhan account holders at individual level only after satisfactory account behaviour and timely repayment of the initial overdraft facility of INR5,000. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 13 Microfinance Institutions Scope of Growth May be Limited Beyond 2019 Ind-Ra expects that the measures of the government such as appointing BCs at high speed, trying to increase efficiency and transaction throughput of the BC model and permitting diversified banks may achieve sufficient traction only by FY19 for financial inclusion and pose competition to MFIs. These models could limit their growth in the long term. This may cause MFIs to look at alternate models of evolution and expand their product suites for their customers instead of handing over the customers to banks for additional services. Figure 22 MFIs May Need to Look for Alternate Models Limitations on growth of MFIs beyond FY19 Limitations placed by current RBI guidelines Marginal increase in loans outstanding per borrower Adding clients would be difficult – easy additions made by FY19 Lower preference for more than 1 year loans (disb above INR15,000) since RoA lower Penetration may be limited by the existence of other MFIs and new models Competition from other low-cost models that accept savings/deposits 1. Diversified banks 2. Bank credit through Business Correspondents 3. Expansion in scope of SHG programme Closer borrower indebetedness limits Source: Ind-Ra MFIs Can Adopt the BC Model A BC acts as a third party agent between a borrower or a client and a bank (Appendix 5). Smaller and mid-sized MFIs could look at a combined model of MFI and/or small bank and a banking correspondent model. The BC model provides an opportunity to MFIs to leverage their operational reach and closeness to clients to provide them greater access to the banking services of the partner bank. The BC need not require substantial capital for its operations and can leverage its equity much higher than in MFI operations. The model has its set of challenges where the transaction throughput may not provide sustenance. However, the BC model could become a viable option especially for smaller MFIs considering the increasing number of transactions through this channel and increased focus of the government, regulators and banks on financial inclusion through it. MFIs Can Apply for Small Bank Licence MFIs largely have a one-dimensional business i.e. microfinance lending. With RBI allowing MFIs to act as BCs for a bank, new areas for fee income growth are emerging. The small bank license or the differentiated bank license may provide opportunity to MFIs to convert into a multi-dimensional financial entity (Appendix 12). Payment banks can remit money and pay utility bills or any other payments on behalf of its client. The client‟s savings/deposits may be deployed only towards investments in government securities (Appendix 12). Small banks can provide a large suite of services to a client including savings, cross selling insurance, remittance and loan products (Appendix 12). Furthermore, small banks are likely to have a lower cost of funds (due to the ability to provide savings and deposits products) that could translate into lower interest rates for borrowers. However, reserve requirements (in line with scheduled commercial banks) will also put downward pressure on returns. Our estimates Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 14 Microfinance Institutions Figure 24 Category of NBFC-MFI GLP >INR5.0bn INR1.0bn>GLP<INR5.0 bn GLP<INR1.0bn Large MFIs Mid-sized MFIs Small MFIs Source: Ind-Ra show that small banks could have 2%-3% lower cost of funds and 3%-4% lower operating costs than MFIs‟ which could be passed on to customers. Most top 15 MFIs (about 80% of the NBFC-MFI loan book in 2QFY15; Appendix 13) in our opinion are systemically important and are better placed to benefit from the small bank licence. The MFIs can adopt models based on their size and geographical spread. Figure 23 Evolution Model for MFIs BC: Business correspondent MFI: MFI operations SB: Small Bank Small BC+MFI BC+MFI/SB SB Large Concentrated in few states Diversified presence Source: Ind-Ra Smaller MFIs may not be able to withstand competition from larger MFIs, small banks and the government sponsored SHG programmes and hence may look at adopting the BC + MFI model in its dominant states. Mid-sized MFIs operating in a few states could adopt the BC+ MFI or SB model, while large MFIs can transform themselves into small banks. The performance of top 15 MFIs on various operational parameters may be referred in Appendix 13. Migration to Individual Lending from Group Lending In countries where microfinance has a presence since long, a category of borrowers have moved up the value chain. They may have been successful in their micro-enterprises and their requirements may not be satisfied by borrowings from MFIs. They may have relative certainty of cash flow and/or business that may provide with steady income. Their social status may increase and they may not want to be a part of the group lending structure. In South and Central America, many countries have as a result migrated to the individual lending mechanism. Many MFI borrowers could migrate to individual borrowing from MFIs or banks in India also, considering increased income, increased status of the borrower and higher credit needs and the fact that government and banks are pushing financial inclusion. Within the current contours of RBI guidelines, MFI loans above INR50,000 cannot qualify as an MFI loan. Furthermore, the credit requirements of a borrower may exceed the RBI mandated INR50,000 limit. If RBI does not modify the above stipulations, these clients may migrate to banks. Alternatively, MFIs could serve these customers through the BC model or as small banks. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 15 Microfinance Institutions 3. Appendix 1: Glimpse of Success (2006-2010) In the early 2000s, the JLG model was experimented upon in India by societies set up by NGOs for the specific purpose of lending to the poor. As non-profit organisations, they could only accept donations/charity as funding sources. Subsequently, they realised that lending to the poor can also be profitable and many converted into NBFCs. The high growth-high return NBFCs attracted investments and debt, which fuelled the growth cycle. This increased the competition for borrowers, equity etc and resulted in diluted standards of credit. 3.1. Conversion from Non-Profit to For-Profit Most NGOs/societies/trusts realised that the microfinance business can be operated profitably and hence converted into NBFCs (regulated by RBI). These NBFCs now constitute about 85%90% of the total MFI lending and are the subject of the report. The interest rates charged in this sector (25%-35%) were higher than formal financial institutions/sources due to the following two reasons: 1. Moneylenders, whom MFIs expected to replace, charged 50%-500% interest rate. 2. Operational and recovery costs were higher because of the small ticket size of the loans, and MFIs could not operate profitably if they charged interest rates of 12%-15% (which is typical bank lending rate). Despite higher operational costs, NBFC-MFIs more than made up for it by charging higher interest rates and some enjoyed ROAs of 4%-5% while the same for banks was 2%-3%. These banks were also subject to prudential norms and reserve requirements. Among other conditions conducive to growth, a favourable outlook of the world on microfinance led to the flow of debt and equity capital into the sector. The sector had no shortage of funds and grew over 100% annually from FY06-FY10. Figure 25 Return Ratios of MFIs RoAs (%) 30 25 RoEs 27.50 25.00 20 15 10 9.70 4.10 4.40 1.90 5 0 2008 2009 2010 Source: mixmarket.org 3.2. Improved Access to Debt and Equity Funding Globally, the microfinance sector was attracting a lot of attention and media and others viewed it as a poverty alleviation tool without any shortcomings. The sector attracted funds from PE investors and debt from banks. The story was no different in India. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 16 Microfinance Institutions 3.2.1.PE and Other Equity Raising Plans Figure 26 Sector Attracted PE Investments (USDm) 180 165 163 FY09 FY10 150 120 83 90 60 30 4 16 0 FY06 FY07 FY08 Source: VC Circle The high RoAs translated to RoE of 25%-35% and attracted PE investors. Though some of these were long-term investors, others looked to maximise returns in three to four years and flip their investments. Equity was over 25% of the MFI balance sheet in 2010 (2007: 16%) (Source: Mix Markets). According to media reports, the investments were made at high valuations and the return expectations were also high. The investors had a significant say in the strategy and management of the company and possibly applied intense pressure on the management to grow the loan books. SKS Microfinance Limited, one of the top three Indian microfinance firms, raised USD357m in August 2010 from the primary market and the stock doubled within a couple of months. The listing happened at 4.2x its extant book value. Sequoia Capital India made 12x on its investment in four years when it made a partial exit through the initial public offering (IPO). Media reports suggested Bandhan and Spandana Spoorthy Financial Limited had also readied IPO plans to raise INR30bn from the primary markets. 3.2.2.Bank Funding and Priority Sector RBI and other regulatory bodies viewed MFIs as a means of financial inclusion for the poor. Hence, banks‟ lending to these institutions qualified as priority sector loans. According to RBI regulations, the adjusted loan book of Indian banks must have 40% of loans advanced to the priority sector and most Indian banks usually fall short of this target. MFIs fulfilled this requirement in the following two ways for Indian banks. 1. Borrowings by MFIs qualified as priority sector loans 2. MFIs securitised part of the loans originated by them. Some banks, as a part of their strategy, made investments in such securitised products to reduce their loan book size. This also reduced the priority sector loans they needed to advance. As a result, bank funding increased to USD3.8bn in 2010 from USD1.2bn in 2007 (source: Mix Markets). The increased availability of funds enabled MFIs to grow exponentially with high returns attracting further confidence and funds. 3.3. Strong Growth Ensued Sa-Dhan estimates that the number of MFI players across all legal forms increased to 318 in 2010 from 40 in 2006. Each player wanted to showcase its capability and growth to attract capital. They undertook massive expansion and to achieve faster and easier growth, focused on growing their portfolio in high penetrated states of AP, TN and WB. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 17 Microfinance Institutions 3.3.1.Loan Book Doubled Almost Every Year The over 100% growth in NBFC-MFI portfolios was due to overall growth in microfinance portfolio and conversion of some non-profit MFIs to NBFCs. By FY10, a majority of large MFIs that were societies were converted into NBFCs. Figure 27 NBFC – MFI Portfolio Size and Growth Portfolio (LHS) (INRbn) Growth in NBFCs-MFIs (RHS) (%) 163 180 158 150 180 150 150 120 120 89 90 90 83 60 60 36 14 30 30 0 0 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 Source: Sa-Dhan, State of Sector reports-Access Development Services 3.3.2.Blistering Operational Expansion Flush with funds and in a hurry to show returns, MFIs expanded. Staff doubled in less than two years and operating leverage (borrowers per loan officer) increased. MFIs also increased the number of branches by 2x in three years. Figure 28 Number of MFI Staff and Loan Officers MFI staff (Staff) Field staff 111,804 120,000 93,342 100,000 77,145 80,000 60,000 64,354 63,472 47,622 39,997 27,998 40,000 20,000 0 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 Source: Sa-Dhan, mixmarket.org, State of Sector reports-Access Development Services, Ind-Ra Figure 29 Borrowers Per Loan Officer (Borrowers per credit officer) 400 356 346 FY09 FY10 294 300 231 200 100 0 FY07 FY08 Source: Sa-Dhan, mixmarket.org, State of Sector reports-Access Development Services, Ind-Ra Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 18 Microfinance Institutions Figure 30 Number of MFI Branches (No of branches) 12,690 14,000 12,000 10,435 10,000 8,000 6,189 7,252 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 Source: Sa-Dhan, mixmarket.org, State of Sector reports-Access Development Services, Ind-Ra 3.3.3.Piggybacking on SHG Model MFIs realised that they could form JLGs and disburse faster if they included SHG members (who had inculcated good credit behaviour) in the group formation. MFIs concentrated on the regions where the SHG programme was implemented on a large scale and was reasonably successful i.e. south India and especially Andhra Pradesh. Figure 31 Process of JLG Creation and Loan Disbursement from NBFC-MFI’s Viewpoint New loan officer to acquire 300 clients in a year Pressure to form a JLG • In FY08, each loan officer serviced 294 borrowers. • A new loan officer is looking to set up operations in a cluster of villages is under a lot of pressure to attract clients (who will not default) and also to disburse loans. • He has to serve 294 borrowers in a year. • The cluster may already have two-three existing MFIs with offices and established JLGs. In case the officer looks for new members that may not be members of existing JLGs and SHGs, he may find them either unworthy of credit or not find such members at all. • In addition, even if he is successful in arranging for creation of such a group, it would take time for the members to inculcate behaviors suitable for credit and involve significantly high operational costs. Source: Ind-Ra The incentives of a loan officer were based on portfolio growth/disbursements and recoveries. As a result, the easiest and fastest way for him to acquire new borrowers was to invite existing JLG and SHG members for the formation of a new JLG. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 19 Microfinance Institutions Figure 32 Loan Portfolio: Regional Share Region (%) South East North West Central North East 2008 61 20 1 7 9 1 2009 58 20 3 6 11 1 2010 55 21 3 8 9 3 Source: Sa-Dhan and State of Sector Reports-Access Development Services Over 50% SHGs in FY10 were concentrated in south India. MFIs mirrored SHGs and hence south India had a share of over 50% in MFI loan portfolios. 3.3.4.Increased Concentration in South India esp. AP The overdependence on south India, especially AP, after Kolar and Krishna crises (described later) increased the concentration risk for MFIs. Figure 33 Regional Break-up of the MFIs’ Portfolio Regions (INRbn) South East North West Central North east Total 2008 36.5 11.6 0.9 4.4 5.6 0.6 59.6 2009 68.6 23.2 3.9 7.0 13.5 1.1 117.3 2010 103.3 39.8 5.4 14.2 17.4 6.3 186.4 Source: Sa-Dhan, Ind-Ra The top four states constituted almost 70% of the total loan portfolios of MFIs. AP constituted 28% of the MFI loan portfolio in FY10. Figure 34 Loan Portfolio: States with Largest Share (%) FY08 FY09 FY10 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 AP Source: Sa-Dhan, Ind-Ra‟s estimates WB Karnataka TN Both these models concentrated majority of their efforts in growing their loan book in AP, which resulted in the highest MFI debt per poor household in the state in 2010. 3.4. Lack of Regulatory Oversight Leads to Process Dilution There was no regulatory body or supervisory structure for MFIs as they could be in various legal forms such as NBFCs, NGOs, trusts/societies and Section 25 companies. 3.4.1.Favourable Regulatory Regime No Supervisory Structure: Though NBFCs (over 85% of the MFI universe) were regulated by RBI in terms of accepting deposits and prudential norms, there were no guidelines for their MFI operations, credit appraisal etc. Global experience shows that in an unregulated environment, Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 20 Microfinance Institutions MFIs grow at a breakneck pace, but the quality of their loan portfolios could suffer. Many MFIs were members of SROs and required to adopt their code of conduct, however again, there was no system of measuring the adherence. Figure 35 Borrowers from Multiple MFIs Number of MFIs % borrowed from respondents 1 5 2 24 3 51 4 12 >4 8 No Specific Norms for JLG Formation: JLGs were conceptually expected to operate in a manner similar to SHGs. Under the ideal Grameen model, JLG members could be eligible for loans after two weeks to one month from the formation based on the assessment of the group‟s credit behaviour by a loan officer. Two aspects may be noted here: inherent conflict of interest of the loan officer while assessing the group and the fact that these are mere guidelines, not mandatory waiting periods. The population of a particular region may exhibit a particular set of credit characteristics and the formation and maturing of a JLG may be tweaked. For instance, NABARD („IND AAA‟/Stable), in its studies undertaken for implementing a SHG-bank linkage programme suggested that an SHG requires six months for maturing before it becomes eligible for credit. 3.4.2.Process Dilution Increased Credit Risk of MFIs Source: Microsave Competition was fierce in the barely regulated MFI sector. The cost of providing credit to a borrower in the microfinance business was inversely proportional to the competitive intensity. For example, for two MFIs operating in a large village with population of 5,000 and about 500 potential borrowers (considering the typical profile of a JLG member), two loan officers can easily cover all the borrowers. Now if a third MFI decides to set shop, its loan officer would be under intense pressure to attract borrowers and the following sequence of events may follow: The loan officer may form a JLG out of the existing SHG/JLG members The JLG may not be given time to mature The loan officer does not carry out credit appraisal properly, or may not even confirm with other JLG members before inducting a new member or providing a loan to the borrower. The loan officer may provide multiple loans of increasing sizes. Once a JLG is formed after the competition-led process dilution, easy credit is available to borrowers. 3.4.3.Multiple Loans of Increasing Size As the number of MFIs operating in a region increase, the credit appraisal process is diluted because of competitive intensity by under-regulated MFIs. Multiple Loans The borrower would potentially be a member of JLGs with all MFIs operating in the region and could be a borrower with more than one MFI. He may borrow from other MFIs to service existing MFI loans. The borrower is then caught in a debt trap where he borrows increasing amounts to repay earlier obligations. A survey conducted by Microsave, an international consulting organisation, on a sample of AP MFI borrowers revealed that 71% respondents had borrowers from three or more MFIs. Loan Size It would be understandable if MFIs were growing most of their loan portfolios by increasing their outreach. However, the bulk of the increase in the loan portfolios of MFIs was due to an increase in average ticket size. The average loan outstanding per borrower increased at a CAGR of 26% during FY08-FY10. The growth was much higher in some states. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 21 Microfinance Institutions Figure 36 Average Loan Outstanding Per Borrower (INR) Andhra Pradesh West Bengal Karnataka Tamil Nadu Uttar Pradesh Maharashtra Madhya Pradesh Odisha Total FY08 5,177 3,345 5,468 3,307 6,330 3,195 4,433 3,282 4,223 FY09 7,008 4,924 6,471 4,901 9,150 2,555 5,759 5,482 5,192 FY10 8,270 6,023 6,895 5,189 7,925 6,447 5,930 7,500 6,870 CAGR (%) 26 35 12 25 12 42 16 50 26 Source: Sa-Dhan AP was the only state with an average loan outstanding per borrower of over INR5,000 in FY08 and average CAGR 25% loan growth for two consecutive years. Of the other states with an average loan outstanding per borrower of over INR5,000, Karnataka and UP reported a CAGR of about 12% for the same period. This was marginally more than India‟s GDP growth i.e. 9.32% in FY08 and 6.72% in FY09 and 8.59% in FY10 (Source: RBI). 3.4.4.Purpose of Loans Though it is not entirely possible to monitor the end use of microfinance loans, ideally the loans were to be provided for income generating purposes. According to Sa-Dhan, over 85% loans were extended for income generating purposes in FY10. Figure 37 Purpose of Loans (FY10) Non-income generating Income generating 87% Other 13% Housing 3% Others (includes health and education) 2% Consumption 8% Source: Sa-Dhan However, the Microsave survey reveals that in AP over 40% of loans in 2009-2010 could have been extended for non-income generating purposes including repayment of the existing loans. 3.4.5.Non-transparent Interest Rates, Fees and Hidden Costs The fees and interest charged by MFIs came under a lot of criticism for their non-transparency. 1. 2. 3. 4. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 Flat interest rate: MFIs charged a flat interest rate instead of on a diminishing principal basis. It effectively means that a 20%-25% flat interest rate could actually be around 35%40% interest rate on a diminishing principal basis. Additional fees: Further five to six different kinds of fees were charged to borrowers, amounting to an additional charge of about 3%. Interest rates did not decrease in line with bank rates: In 2006-2009, interest rates charged by banks were lowest in a decade, but that did not deter MFIs from charging high interest rates. Borrowers often have immediate cash requirements and thus interest rate is not such a concern. Deposits/forced savings: A few press reports alleged that MFIs typically deducted 10%15% of the disbursements as security deposits without reducing the corresponding interest amount for debt service. 22 Microfinance Institutions 4. Appendix 2: AP Crisis and its Aftermath (2010-2012) AP was the most penetrated state for microfinance loans during FY95-FY10. Even under the SHG-bank linkage model, AP had over 50% share in a number of credit SHGs. In 2010, MFIs‟ exposure to AP was 29% (INR52.1bn on 31 March 2010). The process dilution (refer section 3.4.2) and the related factors led to easy growth in terms of number of customers and loan portfolio. It also led to easy customer acquisition and availability of credit to JLG members. This led to a drastic increase in per household debt. A Microsave report based on a survey reveals that 71% of the respondents had loans outstanding from three or more MFIs. According to the State of the Sector reports by Sage Publications, each poor household in AP had average loans of INR71,761 in FY10. Ind-Ra‟s own estimates suggest that the average poor household debt in AP in FY10 could be up to INR87,000. Figure 38 Pressure to Lend and Recover Leads to Unsavoury Practices Increased fund availability increases pressure to grow and disburse Management and employee incentives are based on growth in customers and loan portfolio Members from SHG and other JLGs are poached for the quick formation of a JLG Loans are extended to the members (even if they have substantial indebtedness to other MFIs) Borrower may have loans from three to four MFIs and SHG and may be under pressure to make repayments As the income insufficient, MFIs use aggressive means for recovery Source: Ind-Ra, Microsave Various operational aspects of MFIs, their charges, recovery were highlighted possibly in an exaggerated manner. Profit-seeking nature, comparison with money lenders etc, further dented MFIs‟ image. Various studies and surveys suggested that these press reports were not without a reason, although it would be difficult to separate facts from exaggeration. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 23 Microfinance Institutions 4.1. High Household Debt and Correlation with Suicides Due to unrestrained expansive strategies of MFIs and easy availability of debt, microfinance debt per poor households reached high levels. Figure 39 Household Microfinance Debt in Large States MF debt (2010) MFI debt (INRbn) SHG debt (INRbn) Total households (m) Poor households (%) Average borrowing/poor household (INR) AP 52.10 117.39 21 9.20 87,728 TN 23.87 40.59 19 11.28 30,850 Karnataka 25.51 20.55 13 20.91 16,493 WB 21.08 13.27 20 19.98 8,436 UP Maharashtra MP 9.51 9.67 5.93 16.36 12.03 4.45 33 24 15 29.43 17.35 31.65 2,628 5,122 2,173 Source: State of Sector reports – Access Development Services, Census 2011 and Planning Commission (for poor households, 2011-2012) A poor household in AP in FY10 held about INR87,728 as debt, out of which about INR27,000 was borrowed from MFIs. Considering the average outstanding of INR8,270 (Bharat Microfinance Reports, FY10, FY11 – Sa-Dhan), each average poor household borrowed from at least three MFIs at a time. Some press reports quoted surveys indicating some poor households having outstanding debt of over INR60,000 from six to seven MFIs. Given that servicing the level of household debt was beyond the means of some poor households, MFIs employed harsh recovery practices which could have included public humiliation, house visits, following the borrower, intimidation etc. Society for Elimination of Rural Poverty reported over 70 suicides within nine months in FY10-FY11 because of the inability of the poor to repay debt. 4.2. Unfavourable Institutional Perception A combination of high returns made by investors, bad press in relation to high interest rates and aggressive recovery means affected the perception of MFIs in the eyes of the public, customers, politicians and the system. 1. Profit seeking image of MFIs: The Grameen model was ideally expected to charge interest rates enough only to enable it to sustain and carry on its business of financial inclusion with nominal profits for stakeholders. In FY08-FY11, Indian MFIs were among the fastest growing in the world, attracting higher PE investments on the strength of their high RoAs and RoE of about 5% and above 30%, respectively. SKS Microfinance was ranked second in the world on the most profit parameters by Mix Market. 2. IPO plans: SKS Microfinance raised over USD350m from the primary market while Bandhan, another large MFI, had made its IPO plans public. Early investors were making manifold returns on their investments (Sequoia Capital made 12x on its SKS investment). MFIs increasingly began to be viewed as entities making profit off the poor. 3. Local press highlighted extreme recovery measures and attributed suicides to the recovery means. 4.3. Political Interference The grievances began to be highlighted to various departments, ministers in the government and the press. Given the socio-political importance of the fact that the poor may have been exploited, intense political interference followed partly due to resentment towards MFIs using the SHG structure for profitable purposes and partly due to media reports on MFIs‟ recovery means and suicides. Reports and subsequent surveys suggest that local politicians and strongmen in some regions may have prompted people not to repay MFIs claiming that the poor were being exploited. The AP government, under intense pressure from its own ministers and the opposition, decided to act tough. It promulgated what MFIs consider draconian, the Andhra Pradesh Microfinance Ordinance, 2010. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 24 Microfinance Institutions 4.4. AP Act 2010 The AP government, based on reports received from district collectors on MFI operations, passed the Andhra Pradesh Micro Finance Institutions (Regulation of money lending) Ordinance 2010. The AP Ordinance (which subsequently became an Act) was aimed at crippling the seemingly haphazard processes followed by MFIs when lending to the poor. MFIs could not recover their loans, make fresh loans without government approvals, and had to provide a list of employees involved in the recovery and lending parts of business. This, coupled with active encouragement to borrowers from local politicians and strongmen to halt repayments, resulted in a contagion effect in the state. The collection efficiencies dropped to below 20% in January 2011 from 99% in September 2010. 4.4.1.Key Provisions of AP Act Figure 40 Key Provisions of AP Act Feature Registration of business Before AP Act MFIs were registered either as NGOs or NBFCs and free to operate throughout the country After AP Act Register with following details with every district authority where they operate: villages and town they operate in, proposed interest rate, due diligence and recovery system persons authorised for lending or recovery on behalf of MFIs Operations permitted only after registration Cancellation of n.a. On receipt of complaints of registration SHG or JLG members even if an inquiry is underway Borrower MFIs aggressively No member of a SHG can sourcing used the ready be a member of other SHG ecosystem developed or MFI by the SHG-bank MFI desiring to lend to an linkage programme SHG borrower has to apply to the district authority Lending rates Typically between Only interest to be charged 30%-50%, which included multiple fees Interest cannot exceed etc principal over the loan tenor Recovery Recovery agents MFIs not to employee external practices would make trips to recovery agents. Recovery to borrower's residence if be done only at a central required location and not to interfere with the borrower‟s routine Penalty: Criminal action Submission of n.a. data to district authority Undertaking by n.a. the CEO Implication Key feature of MFI loans was speed and timely availability to borrowers. These provisions led to the lending operations subject to the local bureaucracy Resumption of business (lending and recovery) only after registration Cancellation possible even on receipt of unjustified complaints to the authorities Permission required from bureaucracy for lending to each existing microfinance borrower In case where the interest could / has exceeded the principal, the excess amount is to be returned to the borrower Total dependence of MFIs on willingness and intent of the borrower for recoveries. Fear of punitive action by the state Additional bureaucracy Monthly statements with borrower names, interest rate charged and loan amount CEO becomes directly Even for a small lapse, CEO responsible for any lapses in may be jailed. Highly operations at branch level disproportionate penal terms also Source: AP Act 2010 The bill was immediately enforced and the recoveries collapsed. As a result, MFI operations in the state came to a grinding halt. 4.4.2.Could the Crisis Have Been Foreseen? The AP crisis was not unique to AP. Similar crises occurred in Krishna district of AP in FY06FY07 and Kolar district, Karnataka in FY09-FY10. In addition, MFIs in many countries such as Bolivia, Nicaragua, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Morocco and Pakistan suffered similar crises in Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 25 Microfinance Institutions the late 1990s and 2000s. Krishna Crisis The Krishna crisis occurred in the Krishna district of AP in 2006 and was the precursor to the AP crisis where district authorities closed down 50 branches of MFIs. The crisis started with a section of people alleging that MFIs charged extremely high interest rates and were undertaking aggressive recovery tactics. This was similar to the AP crisis but the scale was small (restricted to one district). There were three main allegations: Lack of clarity on fees and other charges, calculation of interest on flat basis, forced savings/deposits increased borrowing costs for the poor Unethical recovery means including confiscation of land documents etc. Poaching SHG members for JLG operations; direct competition with the SHG-bank linkage programme (AP had undertaken significant initiatives in the SHG-bank linkage programme and extended several grants/interest) The entire incident attracted lot of bad press for MFIs including many suicides being attributed to them. Some MFIs alleged that local politicians instigated the unrest with respect to MFIs in Krishna. MFIs made a strong appeal to the government not to act. Finally, the government allowed MFIs to continue to operate based on MFIs‟ commitments of applying for SRO memberships and adopting the code of conduct. Figure 41 Some International Crises MFI – nature before the crises MFI reach and growth Signs of stress/risks Trigger Analysis of main cause Measures Bosnia and Herzegovina Direct lending preferred; Started as non-profit MFIs; later converting to for-profit joint stock companies (mostly foreign bank controlled) From 2003-2008: borrowers and loan portfolio increased 11x Nicaragua Direct lending preferred; Mostly development NGOs; rural based; mostly for agriculture and cattle (33% of portfolio); MFIs still struggling and not out of the woods; almost no regulation till 2007 From 2003-2008: average loan increased 3x and loan portfolio increased 5.5x (almost 16% of country‟s credit) Morocco Direct lending preferred; dependence on bank borrowings for funding loan book growth; limited regulation by central bank; mostly NGO MFIs; Recovered after the crisis with moderate growth In 2008, clients began resisting repayments and contesting seizure of collateral (land in particular) as illegitimate dispossession in northern region; this spread to other parts of the country Global financial crisis in FY09 increased food prices; merger of one of the largest MFIs revealed high credit costs and it stopped disbursements; fear of insolvency could have triggered borrowers to avoid repayments without penalty implications Unrestrained, unsustainable growth with poor underwriting practices MFIs consolidated operations by shrinking loan books; MFIs tightened their credit and recovery Processes; Set up CIBs; Banks supervised MFIs for processes; Central bank regulated MFIs From 2004-2008: MFI loan portfolio grew 11x and borrowers increased 4x; Covered 44% population From 2003-2008, From 2003-2007, From 2003-2007, Leverage increased from 2.5x to 5x Average loan outstanding increased PAR 30 increased from 0.4% to 5% from USD1,203 to USD2,411 Average loan outstanding increased write offs increased from 0.4% to 1.9% from USD780 to USD2,200; PAR 30 increased from 2.5% to Average loan outstanding per borrower 5.25% increased from USD200 to USD528 Write-offs increased from 0.61% in 2003 to 5.66% in 2009 Leverage increased from 2.8x to over Leverage increased from 1.8x to 5x 5x 50% of microenterprises failed, loans often used for consumption 2004 onwards, politicians challenged MFIs Larger loans with poor underwriting policies as usurious profit-seeking businesses Saturation: Women borrowers decreased from 74% to 59% 32% borrowed from three or more MFIs Over 30% loans for cattle rearing; price in 2006 shocks and import restrictions in Mexico Inadequate MIS and internal reporting Executives were among highest paid Started as non-repayment at individual level; no external catalysts or proconsumer movement Inflation and global economic crisis In progress Political environment and market manipulation MFI law passed in 2011; the law was stringent compared with those in other countries Source: Press reports and studies Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 26 Microfinance Institutions 4.5. AP Act Fallout Figure 42 Collapse of Repayment Culture Press praising AP MFI Act Local politicians and strongmen exhorting people not to repay If X defaults, others know X is not going to pay if they default Members realise that if all default, MFI collapses Implies no access to future credit and no penalty for nonpayment Mass defaults Source: Ind-Ra The collapse set off a domino effect on borrowers and recovery rates collapsed to below 20% in January 2011 in AP from above 99% in September 2010. 4.5.1.Asset Quality Declined Figure 43 Non-performing Assets of MFIs Writeoff PAR 90 PAR 30 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 0 5 10 15 (As % of total loans) 20 25 Source: mixmarket.org MFIs could not do business in the stifling environment. As an example, only 1,600 of the 73,000 applications made by SKS Microfinance were approved by the district office (source: press reports). Business restrictions and an unsustainable drop in recoveries in AP (about 30% of total MFI portfolio) made banks nervous. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 27 Microfinance Institutions 4.5.2.PE Investments and Debt Funding Dropped The banks stopped lending and halted securitisation of MFIs‟ loan portfolios. PE investors deserted them; the sector had become untouchable. Figure 44 MFI Borrowings (INRbn) 207 210 200 190 178 180 170 170 160 150 FY10 FY11 FY12 Source: Sa-dhan MFIs were required to liquidate their non-AP books to ensure repayment to the banks due to the supply side shocks on the funding side. MFIs with heavy exposure to AP had to apply for restructuring since it was expected that most of their loan portfolio would turn into NPAs. 4.5.3.Entry of MFIs in CDR Due to a fall in recovery rates and impending huge write-offs, MFIs also defaulted on their debt service. Five of the top six MFIs were asked by their banks to apply to the corporate debt restructuring cell (CDR). However, after the initial terms of CDR were discussed, SKS Microfinance and Bhartiya Samruddhi Investments and Consulting Services Limited (BASIX) decided to opt out of restructuring. Reports suggested that they backed out because of personal guarantee stipulations on the promoters. Figure 45 Status of Portfolio of MFIs that Entered CDR MFI (INRbn) Asmitha Microfin Limited Future Financial Services Limited (FFSL) Share Microfin Limited SpandanaSphoorty Financial Limited Trident Microfinance Pvt. Limited Total Total outstanding Portfolio size Portfolio size FY11 AP share CDR deal in 1QFY14 in 1QFY15 Total debt 13.75 14.00 7.00 7.50 4.09 3.57 1.60 2.01 0.46 1.10 1.77 2.31 24.02 33.26 20.00 29.00 10.00 19.00 19.00 23.00 8.29 10.18 7.56 9.55 1.49 1.36 1.12 1.25 0.24 0.6 74.11 66.37 37.58 51.85 24.57 23.05 Source: Press reports, MFIN The CDR was made available only to major MFIs operating out of AP. Five MFIs listed above participated in the first round of CDR. RBI allowed for loans to be recast instead of being labelled as nonperforming; banks need not assign higher provisions for these loans. Main terms and conditions of CDR are as follows: Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 Two-year moratorium period on principal repayment and seven years of tenor Banks will change part of the debt into convertible preferential shares, allowing banks to convert debt into equity if any of the five MFIs default. Banks will have two to three nominees on each board and thus significant operational control on MFIs. Promoters have to provide personal guarantees to maintain their stake in the business if banks convert debt to equity. Personal guarantee was accepted only by the promoter and MD of FFSL, G. Dasaratha Reddy. 28 Microfinance Institutions All loans of the above MFIs in relation to AP exposure were restructured in FY12. Subsequently BASIX (BSFL) entered into CDR in September 2012 for restructuring INR6.52bn of debt (portfolio of INR12.50bn on 31 March 2011. Banks exercised the conversion into equity option and now own 92% of BSFL while SWAWS Credit Corporation restructured INR0.9bn of debt). 4.5.4.Current Status of CDR MFIs Figure 46 Current Status of CDR MFIs MFI SHARE, Spandana, Asmitha FFSL Trident Current status RBI rejected the request from SHARE, Spandana, Trident, Asmitha and BSFL (BASIX) for a second round of restructuring, following which banks restructured their loans again without the benefits on provisioning. Half of the INR55bn loans were converted into optionally convertible cumulative preference shares, which were supposed to be redeemed at specific intervals. The MFIs could not meet the repayment deadline of June 2013. This time no provisioning benefits were available to the banks. It was the only MFI to repay its CDR loans and exit the programme in August 2013 (had lower exposure to AP). It is winding up its operations and the lenders may have to write off their loans to the MFI since the current book size of INR60m is inadequate to service outstanding debt. Source: Business Standard 4.5.5.Court Battles Do Not Help MFIs operating in AP filed a petition challenging the AP Act which was dismissed by the Honorable High Court in February 2013. Figure 47 Status of Various Court Cases Who filed and which courts Against whom/challenged and why Result/output SKS Microfinance in May 2011 in Supreme Court The AP Act because of extremely restrictive rules for lending; District Registrar had cancelled its licence in Mahabubnagar for allegedly not following rules In March 2013, SKS Microfinance received an interim order from the apex court to resume micro-lending operations in AP without requiring government approval for every loan and interest/principal recovery. MFIs operating in AP (including SKS) in High Court though MFIN in 2011 The restrictive and „draconian‟ AP Act considering that RBI issued regulatory guidelines for NBFC-MFIs Group of borrowers from AP Challenged in Supreme Court an order by the AP high court asking the state government to review a law that reined in lending by MFIs The court dismissed the Ongoing petition in May 2013 but asked the state government to review the Act as the central government was contemplating Microfinance Bill 2012. Source: Live Mint The High Court also requested the AP government to review the AP Act and its need given that the Microfinance Bill is under consideration by the parliamentary Standing Committee. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 29 Microfinance Institutions 5. Appendix 3: RBI Guidelines Figure 48 RBI Guidelines Implication for NBFC-MFIs in relation to earlier complaints Terms Borrower loans Borrower profile Maximum of two NBFC-MFIs can lend to the same borrower Income generating Loans towards income generation activities more loan than 70% of overall book Loan terms Loan size limits Loan tenor Interest rate caps (linked to bank rates) Interest periods and repayment Penalty 85% of net assets to be assets complying with following: Borrower household annual income levels: rural below INR60,000; urban and semi-urban below INR1,20,000; loan amount below INR35,000 in the first cycle and up to IN50,000 subsequently total borrower indebtedness below INR50,000 MFIs can lend under SHG/JLG/individual level Max loan amount = INR50,000 Max overall indebtedness = INR50,000 Not less than 24 months for loan amount above INR15,000 Minimum moratorium equal to interest period No interest rate cap Margin cap 12% for small MFIs and 10% for other MFIs (based on asset size) Interest to be calculated on diminishing outstanding basis Weekly, fortnightly or monthly No penalty on delayed payments No prepayment penalty Transparency on Only three forms of charges - interest, other charges processing fee 1% of disbursement and insurance premium (including admin charges) No collection of security deposits Loan card to every borrower with details in vernacular language Recovery Recoveries at residence only if a customer fails to appear at the designated place more than twice Funding and capital Capital ratios Min net owned funds: INR50m (North east MFIs – INR20m) after 31 March 2014 Limit on loans a borrower can avail from MFIs Could prevent loans availed for consumption or for repayment of other loans Limit on total indebtedness of borrower May ensure loan availability to only the poor Limits indiscriminate lending/borrowing Since loan ticket size is limited, less repayment pressure on borrowers Transparency on interest rates Borrower‟s choice Provides borrower flexibility in repayment Transparency on other charges, fees etc. Benign recovery means Minimum capital stipulations for NBFC-MFIs Min CAR (Tier 1 + Tier 2): 15% of risk weighted assets Tier II capital cannot exceed 100% of Tier I capital Priority sector Exceptions for AP portfolio of MFIs Status to continue RBI accepts importance of the sector and wants banks to fund MFIs Governance Code of conduct, NBFC-MFIs to ensure that a code of conduct and Operational guidelines with customer protection systems are in place for recruitment, training and regard to customer service, code supervision of field staff internal operations, staff hiring and training, etc Provisioning Loan provision to be maintained by NBFC-MFIs NPA recognition and provisioning shall be the higher of norms a) 1% of the outstanding loan portfolio, or b) 50% of the aggregate loan instalments which are overdue above 90 days and below 180 days; 100% of the aggregate loan instalments which are overdue for 180 days or more CIB Mandated that all NBFC-MFIs be members of at Credit checks on the borrower least one credit information bureau and his/her credit history SRO Mandated that all NBFC-MFIs be members of at Internal controls, periodic data least one SRO and portfolio quality reporting, etc Source: RBI Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 30 Microfinance Institutions It may be seen that these guidelines addressed most of the complaints that the market had in relation to the functioning and other aspects of MFIs. The newly christened NBFC-MFIs welcomed it and are of the view that since they are regulated by RBI, they should not be regulated under the Money Lenders Act or its derivatives by individual states. Regulation of NBFCs and banks is a central subject while the Money Lenders Act is a state subject. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 31 Microfinance Institutions 6. Appendix 4: Supervisory structure and credit bureaus set up RBI guidelines led to setting up of SROs and CIBs. RBI made it mandatory for each NBFC-MFI to be a member of at least one SRO and one CIB. 6.1. Industry Bodies such as MFIN and Sa-Dhan Established Sa-Dhan and MFIN were the two industry bodies that existed even before the AP crisis. They attempted to address the data quality, credit and concentration risks and industry practices. However, adherence to their guidelines was voluntary due to the limited means of supervising MFIs. RBI appointed MFIN as the industry SRO in June 2014. MFIN‟s code of conduct on RBI‟s fair practices code for NBFC-MFIs has been accepted by RBI. Figure 49 Brief Details of the Code of Conduct Part I: Core values Maintain integrity, transparency towards clients and protect them from unethical practices and ensure privacy Take client feedback and set up appropriate grievance redressal mechanisms Part III: Client protection guidelines Complete disclosure and transparency in all dealings and communication with the client Educate and endeavor to provide appropriate financials services in compliance with RBI guidelines Shall ensure employee behavior for lending and recovery operations in line with RBI guidelines Part II: Code of conduct Promote and strengthen the microfinance movement Build progressive, sustainable and client-centric systems, and provide a range of financial services complying with the applicable guidelines Promote cooperation and coordination among themselves and other agencies to achieve higher operating standards Part IV: Institutional conduct guidelines Complete adherence to code of conduct Maintain all records and file them with regulators and other industry agencies Adhere to employment and anti-poaching measures as per SRO guidelines Agree to share complete data with CIBs Source: MFIN It is mandatory for MFIN members to adhere to these codes. As stated in its annual report, MFIN has set up an enforcement committee which looks into complaints by any member against any other member. MFIN has addressed 173 complaints in FY14. Currently, MFIN does not proactively audit MFIs‟ operations. However, MFIN indicated that the process for the same is under development. Most NBFC-MFIs are members of MFIN and Sa-Dhan. In addition, Sa-Dhan members also include co-operatives, Section 25 companies and NGOs/societies which together constitute about 10% of the microfinance universe and are non-profit in nature. These SROs periodically collect data on MFI loans, geographical distributions, portfolio performances, etc. and publish it. 6.2. Credit Bureaus Established, Fully Functional Before the AP crisis, MFIs had no way of knowing if a potential borrower was a member of additional JLGs/SHGs and had to believe the member. A loan officer of the MFI was unable to know the number of MFIs the member has borrowed from and his total indebtedness. Additionally, a member could default on his/her borrowing from one MFI (could be wilful or because of genuine reasons) and still avail loans from either SHG or another JLG if he/she was a member. This does not foster encouraging credit behaviour since there is no penalty for nonrepayment of dues. Also, the segment of population served by microfinance companies has many features that do not lend to easy record keeping (one of the reasons why mainstream finance institutions have reservations to lend directly to the segment). Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 32 Microfinance Institutions High household microfinance debt was one of the contributors to the AP crisis. Surveys reveal that over 70% of borrowers had borrowed from three or more MFIs just before the crisis. These CIBs were expected to maintain databases of the borrowers of MFIs and records of their credit history. 6.2.1.MFI Credit Bureaus The CIBs have millions of accounts with loan histories and are periodically updated. All MFIN members are members of both CIBs and provide periodic updations on the borrower accounts to the CIBs. Figure 50 Database Maintenance and Updation Customer details Customer report contains Updation methodology Know your customer (KYC) details include name, age, family members, relationships, identification (most common documents are voter id and ration card) Old loans, current loans, repayment history, days past due, etc. Database updation: Weekly or fortnightly, (monthly for nonmembers). The systems of some MFIs provide live data. While others follow batch process. Borrower credit reports: These are available on query. Typically, the credit reports are requested twice by an MFI before disbursement. Source: Various press reports, Equifax, Highmark An MFIN, RBI appointed SRO requires its members (servicing over 90% of the MFI borrowers) to be members of both, Equifax and Highmark. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 Better MIS and data quality: Earlier, some MFIs relied on their primitive data bases which had duplication and did not cover loans from other MFIs. Over the years, MFIs started building better MIS to standardise and improve their data reporting while Equifax improved the search algorithms and improved database capabilities. External consultants from International Finance Corporation and MFIN aided the data improvement process. Improved strike rate: The credit bureau uses „strike rate‟ to measure the efficiency of its data quality and search algorithms. The strike rate is the probability of finding a match when the person actually exists in the records. During the initial years (2010-2011), the strike rate was about 70% (as data quality was low) which improved to 95% in FY14. Frequency of data updation: The MFI borrower database is updated at least on a fortnightly basis. MFIs reach over 30 million borrowers and hence are important contributors to the database. MFIs have also been updating the historic data on loans so that the credit bureaus can have accurate loan histories. 33 Microfinance Institutions 7. Appendix 5: Business Correspondent Model In 2005-2006, RBI, on the basis of the recommendations of the Khan Committee, permitted banks to use intermediaries such as BCs. This increases the poor and the hard-to-reach individuals‟ access to banking services using a network of third party agents. The bank and BC are bound by a legal contract. The BC usually is a technological service provider (TSP). It provides transaction devices, maintains database and provides hardware and maintenance services. The BC employs customer service points (CSPs) who act as sub agents of the banks. These could be NGOs, Section 25 companies, individuals, SHG members, etc. The environment of operations of BCs was as under: Main objectives: Opening of no frills accounts. Over 100 million no-frill accounts were opened during FY2005-FY2012, of which over 70% are still dormant (Source: press reports). The BCs also facilitate savings, transfers, insurance selling and cash withdrawal by providing last mile connectivity between the banks and their poor customers residing in remote villages. Other activities No frills savings accounts Deposits, FDs and withdrawals Remittances Balance enquiry, statements, receipts Enrollment of customers Disbursal as per bank‟s instructions and limits Other banking products such as overdraft/retail loans, kisan credit card, general credit card Operational Scope of the Business Correspondent and the Bank The BC will be an agent of the bank and the bank will pay commission to the BC for its services The BC will function within 30km from the bank branch BC and its CSPs are allowed to offer credit, savings, remittances and other products from more than one bank All BC transactions are to be accounted by the bank on the same day Bank permitted to reasonably charge the client as per its approved board policy KYC adherence is the bank‟s responsibility Models of Operations of CSP The three main models of operations at CSP are kiosk, GPRS-based biometric model and SMS-based mobile model. The initial investment in hardware is INR1,26,000 for the kiosk model, INR40,000 for the GPRS-based biometric model and INR35,000 for SMS-based mobile model. Average Remuneration to CSPs No frills account (NFA): INR25 (25% for the bank, 40% to CSP and 35% to BC) Maintenance of NFA: INR4 p.a. (25% for the bank, 40% to CSP and 35% to BC) Deposit services: 0.25% with INR6 as the upper limit (25% for the bank, 40% to CSP and 35% to BC) Minimum: INR1/transaction Withdrawal: 0.5% with an upper limit of INR12 (25% for the bank, 40% to CSP and 35% to BC); Minimum: INR2 Issues with the current BC segment The India Banking Agents survey conducted in FY14 revealed that of the total 2,358 agents surveyed across India, 47% were untraceable/unreachable and 16% of the remaining had not carried out a single transaction. This implies that about 55% of BCs are non-functional. A Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 34 Microfinance Institutions median agent conducts, on an average, nine transactions a day and earns INR2,700 per month (Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda record over 30 transactions per day). This amount is lower than the minimum wages prescribed by state governments. As a result, the attrition is between 25% and 34% as the youth (mostly selected as BCs) may not have the patience to wait for transaction through-puts to increase. Sa-Dhan carried out a BC survey in 2012 and found that the breakeven for a CSP in a village of 500 households could range from three to five years. However, the government, regulator and the banks are focussing on the BC model as a means of financial inclusion. The number of CSPs has increased by almost 10x over FY10-FY14. Figure 51 Business Correspondents – Coverage Banking outlets in villages a) Branches b) Villages covered by BCs c) Other modes d) Total Urban locations through BCs 2010 33,378 34,174 142 67,674 447 2011 34,811 80,802 595 1,16,208 3,771 2012 37,471 1,41,136 3,146 1,81,753 5,891 2013 40,837 2,21,341 6,276 2,68,454 27,143 2014 46,126 3,37,678 3,83,804 60,730 Source: RBI The government is of the view that the sheer numbers of BCs/CSPs appointed by the banking system will assist financial inclusion even if more than 50% of CSPs are not operational. It may be seen that the number of transactions and the amounts of transactions have also increased manifold. Figure 52 Transaction Throughput of the BC Channel Year No of transactions (m) Amount of transactions (INRbn) 2010 26.52 6.92 2011 84.16 58 2012 155.87 97.09 2013 250.46 233.88 2014 328.6 524.4 Source: RBI Jan Dhan is likely to increase the transactional throughput of the BC channel and provide more people with increased access to banks. Countries such as Brazil, Kenya, Uganda, South Africa have viable BC operations and this channel could emerge as a competitor to the MFIs or MFIs could operate as BCs. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 35 Microfinance Institutions 8. Appendix 6: Geographical Diversification Ensues The impact of AP crisis on the financials of some MFIs was debilitating since over 50% of the portfolios of some MFIs were concentrated in AP; three of the top five Indian MFIs had to be restructured. Many MFIs began to diversify geographically to minimise the impact of a similar event in other states, if it could arise. The MFIs began to grow, mainly in TN, WB, Karnataka, MP, UP, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Bihar and Assam. The below table illustrates the growth in borrower loan outstanding (MFIs + SHGs) in the larger states indicating two aspects: 1. Part of the growth is from an increase in per capita borrowing 2. Some of these large states are under-penetrated as compared to AP Figure 53 Average Borrowing/Poor Household (INR) Average borrowing/poor household (INR) 2010 2013 AP 87,728 105,869 TN 30,850 35,527 Karnataka 16,493 25,100 WB 8,436 13,364 UP 2,628 3,191 Maharashtra 5,122 6,067 MP 2,173 2,814 Source: State of Sector reports – Access Development Services, Census 2011 and Planning Commission (for poor households, 2011-12) Assam and Bihar are the leading states in terms of growth but their portfolio size is slightly lesser than that of Madhya Pradesh. The concentration of microfinance loans is higher in south Indian states and WB but it is increasing in other large states too. Declining share of MFI Loan Portfolios of AP and Increasing Share of Other States Figure 54 Figure 55 GLP Percentage Share (2008) GLP Percentage Share (2010) Others 18% Others 20% AP 32% MP 2% AP 28% MP 3% UP 6% UP 5% Maharashtra 6% Karnataka 18% WB 9% TN 9% Figure 56 Maharashtra 5% Karnataka 14% WB 12% TN 13% Figure 57 GLP Percentage Share (2011) Others 25% AP 24% Others 30% TN 14% WB 14% MP 5% WB 13% Maharashtra 5% UP 7% GLP Percentage Share (2014) TN 10% Karnataka 11% MP 5% UP 7% Maharashtra 9% Source: Sa-dhan, MFIN, Ind-Ra AP 12% Karnataka 9% Source: Sa-Dhan, MFIN, Ind-Ra‟s estimates Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 36 Microfinance Institutions The share of AP has been decreasing since FY08 while WB, TN, Maharashtra, MP and UP have more or less maintained their share. The share of the remaining states has increased to 30% in FY14 from 19% in 2010, primarily led by Bihar and Gujarat. The fall in Karnataka‟s share in 2011 from 2008 was due to the AP-like effect in three-to-four districts of the state. However, post 2011, their impact has been contained. Loans per District Indicate Increasing Share of Newer States MFIs are expanding in south India but their dependence on TN and Karnataka is increasing in terms of the number of borrowers and loans outstanding in each district. In addition to Karnataka and TN, MFIs have experienced high growth in WB and moderate growth in Maharashtra and MP. Figure 58 Loans in INRm/District 2011 2012 2013 2014 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 AP WB Karnataka TN UP Mahrashtra MP Source: Sa-dhan, MFIN, Ind-Ra Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 37 Microfinance Institutions 9. Appendix 7: Operational Costs Key to Increasing RoAs Below are the various cost and revenue components of the NBFC-MFIs and their drivers: Figure 59 Revenue and Costs: Limited Control of MFIs Revenue components Yield/interest Description Interest on loan Controlling variables and implications The interest rate depends on: - Interest rates charged by other MFIs in the region - RBI‟s yield cap 2.75x banks‟ base rates Processing fees (restricted MFIs usually charge fees in full based on RBI to 1% p.a.) guidelines. May consist of interest on deposits, commission from sale of insurance, etc. Fees Other income Cost components Financing costs Fees and interest paid on MFIs have minimum control on these costs as bank and non-bank debt banks independently charge interest rates, etc. based on their own assessment of the risk. Contains manpower, Costs can decrease by increasing overhead costs, etc. loans/branches, borrowers/loan officer and the average loan ticket size. Credit costs Costs depend on the credit behaviour of the borrowers and could be exacerbated by political reasons. MFIs have only limited control - through interest periods and persistence of collections – on these costs. Operating costs Loan provisions Source: Ind-Ra NBFC-MFIs can only expand their margins by decreasing their operating costs since MFIs have maximum control over them and marginal control over other cost factors. Trend of Operating Costs MFIs have tried to control operating costs by increasing branch throughput, loan officer efficiency and through a higher proportion of field staff. 9.1. Reduction in Branches The number of branches reduced in FY14 from FY11 but loans outstanding per branch increased to INR31m from INR16m indicating that the strategy has changed from spreading too thin to consolidating and then spreading. Figure 60 Figure 61 No of Branches (000) Loans Outstanding/Branch (INRm) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 12,690 11,459 10,697 10,763 25 20.88 20 14.46 15.89 18.25 15 10 5 0 FY10 FY11 FY12 Source: Sa-dhan, MFIN, Ind-Ra Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 28.37 30 13,562 FY13 FY14 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Source: Sa-dhan, MFIN, Ind-Ra 38 Microfinance Institutions 9.2. Trimming Staff Manpower costs can constitute up to 25% of an MFI‟s total costs. MFIs have decreased the number of loan officers, increased borrowers/loan officer and thereby loans outstanding per loan officer, indicating higher operating leverage. However, any further rise in the total number of borrowers/loan officer can affect client service and thereby delivery of microfinance services. Figure 62 Figure 63 Loan Officers per Branch Loan Outstanding per Field Officer (000) (INRm) 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 6.1 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 3.6 1.8 4.2 2.8 2.4 0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Source: Sa-dhan, MFIN Source: Sa-dhan, MFIN Figure 64 Field Staff of MFIs (000) 90 75 78 77 63 57 60 54 50 FY13 FY14 45 30 15 0 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 Source: Sa-dhan, MFIN 9.3. Higher Share of Field Officers in Staff Figure 65 Field Staff as Percentage of Total Staff The employees in MFIs could be of admin/manager grades or field staff (loan officers and branch manager). The field staff is at the business frontline. A higher proportion of field staff without compromising on the quality of compliances and reporting translates into higher staff efficiency. All MFIs Glp>5 bn Glp1-5 bn Glp< 1 bn 2012 2013 2014 62 66 48 67 65 67 59 65 66 67 60 62 Source: MFIN Based on the trends observed in the sector after the AP crisis, we opine that the sector is poised for steady strong growth, but there will not be complete recovery. The relative saturation in some districts, expansion in the previously underpenetrated states (which exhibit relatively poor portfolio quality under the SHG programme – Appendix 8) and the emerging strategy of Indian government, regulators and banks might impart dynamism to the sector. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 39 Microfinance Institutions 10. Appendix 8: SHG-Bank Linkage Programme 10.1. Development of Microfinance Credit Delivery Models in India Before the 1990s, the lack of access to formal credit systems drove the poor to borrow from local moneylenders who would charge interest rates anywhere between 50% and 500%. These moneylenders were often landowners, local strongmen or politicians and would not hesitate to use unscrupulous means to recover their money, including bonded labour, taking possession of the limited assets of the borrowers and other social evils. These practices were widely prevalent across the country. The earnings of the poor were cyclical and meagre. A bulk of their earnings would materialise in the four-to-eight month crop season, part of which would go to clear the arrears of previous borrowings. They would have availed credit for consumption-related purposes, health or unforeseen personal and social events. The high interest rates charged by the informal sector would catch the poor in a debt trap. The pre-1990 models of poverty alleviation primarily included grants and subsidies by the central and state governments through agencies such as NABARD. However, some NGOs were trying to develop appropriate credit behaviours in small pockets in South India, especially in AP, Kerala and TN. NABARD recognised this and undertook various initiatives to bridge the supply-demand gap by trying to evolve financial inclusion using credit. However, the end-users could not make out the difference between state subsidies and the credit systems; they often ended up treating credit as subsidy/grant. This indicated that the lack of financial literacy, financial discipline and regard for credit institutions plagued large sections of the society. These are mandatory requirements for the development of any economy where credit is an important source of capital and equity is sparse. The problem was compounded by low value credits and relatively high costs of appraisal, monitoring and subsequently high credit costs which led banks to abandon most of these programmes. Figure 66 Microfinance Models in India Microfinance Credit Delivery Models in India SHG-Bank linkage JLG - MFI model Individual lending • Involvement of bank • Formation of SHG consisting mostly of poor women • Development of credit behaviour • Eligible to avail credit from banks • Group members shall not be eligible for future credit in case of a default • Bank bears the loss • Involvement of MFIs • Formation of JLG consisting mostly of poor women • Eligible to avail credit • Other members repay on behalf of the defaulter • On continuing default, group is ineligible for credit • MFI bears credit cost if joint liability fails • Involvement of any lending institution and individual borrower • No group lending or liability structure • Individuals relatively more credit worthy than group-based models • More suited for populations with good credit behaviours Source: Ind-Ra India is traditionally an underpenetrated state in terms of credit. Due to poverty and illiteracy, the financially excluded population as a whole did not see appropriate credit behaviours. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 40 Microfinance Institutions Therefore, the government and its implementing agencies found it challenging to set up structures for financial inclusion. 10.2. SHG-bank Linkage Programme The SHG-bank linkage programme was started as an Action Research Project in 1989, an offshoot of a NABARD initiative. It is currently the world‟s largest state-sponsored microfinance programme at about USD7.0bn outstanding loans and with a reach of over 90 million individuals. Figure 67 Role of Participating Entities in SHG Handholding NABARD‟s early experiences with the setting up of SHGs led to the pilot projects involving banks, SHGs and NGOs. The results were encouraging and led to the evolution of a streamlined set of RBI guidelines for banks to foster SHGs. NABARD provided promotion and refinance support to banks and reimbursement of costs to develop and mature an SHG to the corresponding NGOs. Role of SHG-bank linkage participants Bank: Identifies areas for SHG formation Appoints NGOs for forming and fostering an SHG Monitors SHGs after formation through NGO Provides SHG members with savings account Provides SHG members credit after the SHG matures NGO: Forms SHG among villages with commanalities among members Monitors intra-group credit and savings behaviour Imparts basic financial literacy, book keeping and capacity building Hand-holds the SHG though savings and credit processes NABARD Sets up nationwide programme guidelines and monitors performance Provides grants to NGOs for expenses in fostering SHGs Provides grants and refinance support to banks for their participation in the programme Source: Ind-Ra The overall strategy adopted by NABARD relies on two main planks: expanding the range of formal and informal agencies that can work as SHG promoting institutions (self-help promoting institutions; typically NGOs) building up capacities of the increasing number of stakeholders NABARD developed the SHG-bank linkage approach as the core strategy that could be implemented by the banking system in India to increase their outreach to the poor. Main objective of the SHG-bank linkage programme: The programme‟s prime objective was not only to provide credit to the poor, but also to empower them by providing sustainable financial services. The strategy involved forming SHGs of the poor, encouraging them to pool their savings regularly and using the pooled thrift to provide small, interest-bearing loans to members, and in the process learning the nuances of financial discipline. 10.2.1. Characteristics of a Typical SHG Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 Consists of 10-20 members One member per household Either all male or all female groups Regular meetings and compulsory attendance 41 Microfinance Institutions 10.2.2. Process of Maturing of an SHG Figure 68 SHG Formation Process • SHPIs select SHG members (one per household) based on some commonalities (caste, area, gender, livelihood, etc.) • The households have to satisfy three-to-four of the following conditions: only one earning member, drinking water available far off, old illeterate family members, women not having access to toilets, drug addicts or drunkards, kuchha house, scheduled caste or tribe, etc. SHG formation • • • No introduction to credit at the time of initiation Members help each other Members decide on the time and place of meetings, penalty on non-attendance, agreement on the amount of savings, giving small loans to each other, repayment habits • The mentor involves SHG members in activities for inducing fraternal feelings and capacity building SHG members set terms • In an SHG, all members are known to each other • Initial loans are given from the common savings; • Other members are aware that they may be denied future credit if the defaulter does not pay Social pressure • After exhibiting appropriate credit behaviours, the SHG may be considered mature • Based on members' decision, the SHG is ready to avail credit from banks • The mentor may continue his/her relationship with the SHG SHG maturing Source: NABARD handbook on SHG formation, NABARD reports on SHG-Bank linkages 10.2.3. Borrower Coverage and Savings and Loan Portfolio Size of SHGbank Linkage Programme Borrower coverage and savings The SHG-bank linkage is the largest state-sponsored microfinance programme. It has been in existence since 1990s and covers all major Indian states. The mature SHGs are allowed to operate a savings account where it is mandatory for each member to save some money on behalf of the SHG in the savings account. These SHGs can also borrow from participant banks. Savings are mandatory, credit is not. Figure 69 Figure 70 Client Outreach Loan Portfolio Outstanding Basis (m) 120 97 100 97 103 (INRbn) 500 95 96 70 80 58 60 280 300 200 40 363 400 394 429 312 227 170 100 20 0 0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Source: NABARD - Annual reports and State of Microfinance reports Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 42 Microfinance Institutions The client coverage has increased to 96 million in FY14 from 58 million in FY08 under savings SHGs. Each SHG has, on an average, 13 members and has remained more or less constant. Also, the total loan outstanding under SHG-bank linkage programme increased to INR429bn in FY14 from INR170bn in FY08. This indicates high latent demand of credit from hitherto underserved segment of population. Figure 71 Figure 72 SHGs Total SHG Savings Source: Ind-Ra FY2014 FY2014 FY2013 FY2012 FY2011 FY2010 FY2009 FY2008 0 FY2013 3 FY2012 6 FY2011 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 FY2008 (INRbn) 9 FY2010 SHGs (credit) FY2009 SHGs (savings) (m) Source: Ind-Ra Ind-Ra understands that banks determine their loan disbursement needs internally and informally maintain a savings/credit ratio for SHG-bank linkage programme. For the banking system, the ratio has been maintained between 4 and 5. In FY14, about 57% of savings SHGs (4.2 million out of 7.4 million) had availed credit from the banks. Though the number of credit SHGs has remained constant, the total loan portfolio grew at a CAGR of 8% to INR429bn in FY14 from INR363bn in FY12. It indicates that the growth in loan portfolio is due to an increase in outstanding loans per SHG. Figure 73 Loan Disbursed and Outstanding per SHG Avg loan outstanding (INR 000) 200 Avg loan disbursed 160 120 80 40 0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Source: NABARD The loan disbursement per SHG and the outstanding loans per SHG grew at a CAGR of about 11% over FY12-FY14. The data shows that banks are finding it difficult to expand their reach or penetration since the past two years. In fact, the number of savings SHGs has decreased FY12 onwards and the SHG portfolio growth is sourced by increasing per SHG disbursement and thereby loans outstanding. SHGs under the National Rural Livelihood Mission (initiative started in FY13) can borrow unto INR2.5m in stages (as the SHG and its micro/medium scale enterprises mature and increase in size and scope). According to NABARD, chances are that incremental growth can stem mainly from an increase in SHG limits under NRLM rather than expansion of reach. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 43 Microfinance Institutions 10.2.4. Socio-economic Impact Similar to most microfinance programmes across the world, SHG-bank linkage programme focuses on women, SC/ST and minority SHGs. Figure 74 Women SHGs (%) 86 84 82 80 78 76 74 72 84 81 80 81 79 79 76 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Source: NABARD 10.2.5. Regional Biases and Portfolio Performance The SHG-bank linkage programme first took root in south India in AP and thereafter in Karnataka, TN and Kerala. The main reason for this was that NABARD wanted to employ the services of Mysore Resettlement and Development Agency (MYRADA), an NGO with large presence in these states working in the field of financial inclusion of the poor. As the programme matured, it penetrated deeper into these states and currently over 55% of credit SHGs are in south India. Figure 75 Credit SHGs as Percentage of Total SHGs FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 South North East West Central North east Source: NABARD SHG programme is slowly expanding in central, north and east India while maintaining South India‟s share of credit SHGs. The regional bias, combined with other factors, throws up some interesting insights on the credit behaviour of people of these regions. Figure 76 NPA Percentage in the SHG Programme Area (%) All India South North East West Central North east FY2009 2.90 1.40 6.60 3.40 5.60 8.90 8.50 FY2010 2.94 1.87 6.61 3.21 4.46 8.07 5.51 FY2011 6.92 3.79 7.05 4.31 7.26 10.74 8.42 FY2012 6.09 4.98 6.92 7.28 8.22 13.20 5.17 FY2013 7.08 5.11 11.19 10.30 8.63 17.28 8.56 FY2014 6.83 4.64 13.67 11.07 11.11 18.87 8.88 Source: NABARD Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 44 Microfinance Institutions It may be accepted that these kinds of programmes can have high NPAs and the socioeconomic benefits may outweigh the credit costs of such loans. However, the trend of increasing NPAs in central and north India is disturbing. NABARD‟s data shows that some north eastern states such as Manipur and Mizoram have NPAs over 50% of the total loans outstanding under this programme, while Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab and Odisha have lower NPAs in the range of 18%-25%. On mining even deeper, we find that the private sector SCBs have lower NPAs than those of public sector and co-operative banks. Figure 77 Bank Category-wise Share of SHG NPAs Banks (%) Public sector SCBs Private sector SCBs Regional rural Cooperative FY2009 2.40 1.70 4.20 6.80 FY2010 2.60 5.44 3.56 3.88 FY2011 4.76 10.10 3.67 7.04 FY2012 6.48 5.30 4.95 6.84 FY2013 8.39 3.69 4.10 8.13 FY2014 7.02 4.22 6.26 8.67 Source: NABARD The above performance data suggests that: 1. 2. 3. 4. All banks except private sector banks have weak recovery standards under the programme. The banks may have own compulsions to meet SHG targets and hence intense pressure to disburse. These credit costs can, on a system-wide basis, become materially important if the programme increases two-to-three times its current size. Outreach in south India has not increased over the last two years indicating certain level of saturation in formation of SHGs with new members. Future growth in the loan portfolio can come from other regions which suffer high credit costs. Public sector banks have actually decreased their efforts on client coverage and are growing their SHG loan books by increasing per SHG disbursements. The share of commercial banks in total credit SHGs fell 7% from FY10 to FY14 while their share in outstanding SHG loans reduced only 4%. Figure 78 Figure 79 Credit SHGs Covered by SCBs O/s per SHG Comm bank: Outstanding per credit SHG (Lacs) 35 Co-ops and RRBs: Outstanding per credit SHG 32.3 30.5 30 26.1 26.4 25.0 25 20 15 10 5 0 FY10 Source: Ind-Ra FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 (INR 000) 140 120 100 80 62 49 60 40 20 0 FY10 118 101 99 72 54 FY11 60 FY12 70 FY13 80 FY14 Source: Ind-Ra Surprisingly, the actual no of SHGs to which SCBs extended credit fell 23% over FY10-FY14. The SCBs have also increased per SHG disbursements at a higher rate than co-operative banks and RRBs. High credit costs imply that lending to SHGs is not sustainable on a standalone basis. SCBs are lending to SHGs because (i) it is a minuscule part of their loan books, (ii) these loans hold priority sector status for the SCBs and (iii) the fact that NABARD and certain government programmes/schemes reimburse SHG formation charges to self-help promotion institutions (SHPIs; i.e. partly subsidise SHG formation costs for the banks). It may be difficult for the programme to exist without government push and support. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 45 Microfinance Institutions 11. Appendix 9: Microfinance Bill 2012 The Microfinance Bill was introduced in the Parliament in 2012 and later referred to a Standing Committee. A parliamentary panel rejected the bill in February 2014 and asked the government to bring fresh legislation citing the need for additional groundwork, wider consultations and deeper study of certain vital aspects. The Standing Committee was of the view that instead of RBI, a new regulator could be proposed. Other objections of the Standing Committee were: Inadequate focus on regulatory and supervisory structure Silent on issues such as collection/recovery methods The study of lower interest government schemes under SHG (Kudumbashree and StreeNidhi) not conducted client protection, over-indebtedness and coercive Can Kudumbashree and StreeNidhi Programmes be Replicated? Kerala's Kudumbashree scheme provides loans at 11%-13% and the AP government's StreeNidhi programme is offering loans at 14% with an operating cost of just 1%. Despite that, it says, "No study has been conducted to evaluate and replicate these existing successful schemes in achieving financial inclusion.” These schemes are piggybacking on 1. The SHG structure 2. Credit behaviour fostered on a mass scale for over 20 years where the states, especially has continually focused on the micro borrowers 3. Government grants for interest subvention etc NABARD is of the view that states other than those in southern India have not looked at microfinance as a powerful means of financial inclusion. Also, social aspects such as relative independence to women in allocating for household expenditure, meeting male representatives of MFIs/banks, starting a micro-enterprise, financial literacy is relatively less in these states. Agency professionalism and credit behaviour are other important aspects where these states score low. Consequently, credit costs are likely to be higher. Also, southern states have undergone years of conditioning on credit behaviours and SHGs are functioning relatively better even when compared with a mature SHG not belonging to south India. Hence, these schemes are likely to be difficult to implement across India. NABARD is of the view that the executive is increasingly focused on interest rates charged by MFIs. The comparison with banks is difficult as the cost of delivery of credit is higher for MFIs. The global experience shows that a slew of regulations in the microfinance sector of various countries, the interest rates or the margin are regulated in some form (the extent of interest/ margin caps may vary for non-regulated structures). However, door-step microfinance has high operating costs and therefore charges high interest rates. MFIs in some countries charge interest rates ranging from 12.3%-56.5%. However, for countries charging interest rates lower than 20%, the bank rates are also 3%-4% as against 8% in India. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 46 Microfinance Institutions Figure 80 Countries with Large Microfinance Operations Country Portfolio (USDbn) Interest yield Central bank rates Operating costs Margins Indonesia 10.94 37.3 7.5 24.4 12.9 Peru 10.61 25.9 3.5 13.0 12.9 Colombia 6.76 21.5 4.5 13.4 8.1 Vietnam 5.89 22.3 8.0 12.6 9.7 India 4.51 20.9 8.0 8.4 12.6 Mexico 3.83 56.5 3.0 37.8 18.7 Bolivia 3.58 17.5 3.7 11.6 5.9 South Africa 3.42 33.3 5.8 12.1 21.2 Bangladesh 3.15 25.8 7.8 9.5 16.2 Ecuador 2.78 21.5 8.2 12.8 8.7 Azerbaijan 2.49 25.7 3.5 12.5 13.2 Cambodia 2.09 23.7 1.4 10.6 13.1 Chile 1.90 12.3 3.0 8.0 4.3 Kenya 1.85 22.1 8.5 13.1 8.9 Mongolia 1.77 20.5 11.5 6.7 13.9 Brazil 1.68 23.9 11.3 13.6 10.3 Paraguay 1.24 23.1 6.8 15.8 7.3 Weighted average 27.3 5.9 15.3 12.0 Source: mixmarket.org, Portfolio size as on 31 December 2012; Interest yield and operating costs: For year ended December 2013; relies on self-reporting by the MFIs Central bank rates: http://www.cbrates.com All numbers in percentage unless stated otherwise In 2013, the weighted average interest rates charged by MFIs were 27.3%, their operating costs were 15.3% and central bank rates were 5.9%. (weighted against their share in the MFI market). Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 47 Microfinance Institutions 12. Appendix 10: Features of Jan Dhan The new government has launched the Jan Dhan scheme that proposes to open bank accounts for the unbanked with many facilities including savings account. Some of the features are: 1. Banks may offer Jan Dhan account holders INR5,000 overdraft facility if they are satisfied with the borrower history and repayment capability; INR1,00,000 accident cover if the account is linked with Aadhar card; INR30,000 life insurance if the accounts are opened before 26 January 2015 2. Each account holder shall be provided a RuPay debit card 3. Account holders cannot transfer over INR100,000 in one year Similar initiatives in the past have not resulted in meaningful financial inclusion, but the sheer speed and numbers that this scheme has achieved may have a positive impact on financial inclusion. Press reports suggest that states like Haryana, Goa, Kerala, and Union Territories like Puducherry, Chandigarh have covered 100% households under the scheme. Figure 81 Status of Jan-Dhan on 24 January 2015 No of accounts (m) Bank Public sector Regional rural banks Private banks Total Rural 51.5 17.9 3.2 72.6 Urban 43.6 3.2 1.9 48.7 Total 95.2 21.1 5.1 121.4 No of RuPay debit card (m) 88.3 14.5 4.3 107.1 Balance in No of accounts accounts with zero balance (INRbn) (m) 79.48 63.5 15.28 15.6 6.37 3.0 101.13 82.1 Source: Department of Financial Services, Ministry of Finance; The numbers may not match due to rounding off The Finance Ministry is taking additional measures to prevent Jan Dhan accounts from meeting the same fate as the No Frills Accounts: Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 1. Other accounts may be included under Jan Dhan and existing account holders need not open Jan Dhan accounts separately to avail the above benefits 2. Direct transfer of LPG subsidies 3. National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme payments to be directly made to these bank accounts (Rajasthan and MP have already started) 4. The overdraft facility is linked with the savings account and the behaviour of the account 5. The plan also envisages channelling all government benefits (from centre/state/local body) to the beneficiaries‟ accounts and pushing the direct benefits transfer (DBT) scheme of the Union Government. 6. Mobile transactions through telecom operators and their established centres as cash out points are also planned to be used for financial inclusion under the scheme. 48 Microfinance Institutions 13. Appendix 11: Banking Licence Awarded to Bandhan RBI granted a full-fledged scheduled commercial bank licence to Bandhan, the largest NBFCMFI in India, in April 2014 (only two applicants granted licence out of 25, three more expected). Markets are viewing it as a cautious experiment in financial inclusion. Ind-Ra expects Bandhan to play an important role in financial inclusion with its reach (over 2,000 branches) and proximity to the unbanked. Other MFIs are not expected to be awarded banking licences in the current set of issuances. MFIs may now also have to compete with banks (such as Bandhan) in their own operating regions. Since Bandhan will now have access to low cost funds (savings), it can charge lower interest rates, and offer savings products and other financial services that the MFIs cannot provide. Further, the trust perception could be higher in favour of banks. Competition with banks is bound to have a negative impact on the top-line and bottom-line of NBFC-MFIs. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 49 Microfinance Institutions 14. Appendix 12: Diversified Bank Licenses Based on the recommendations of the Mor Committee on financial inclusion, RBI announced in April 2014 that it will work on the policies of having various categories of „differentiated‟ bank licenses which will allow a wider pool of entrants into banking. Differentiated banks serving niche interests, local area banks, payment banks, etc. are contemplated to meet credit and remittance needs of small businesses, unorganised sector, low income households, farmers and migrant work force. The summary of guidelines (issued in November 2014) and implications for MFIs is as below: Figure 82 Key Provisions Applicable to Diversified Banks Payment banks Small banks Entity description and function Eligible ownership Scope of activities Capital requirements Deployment of funds Small savings accounts, Payments/remittance services Existing non-bank pre-paid payment instrument (PPI) issuers, NBFCs, corporate BCs, mobile telephone companies, super-market chains, corporates, cooperatives and public sector entities Banks may have a stake in these entities Acceptance of demand deposits (under deposit cover)- Initially restricted to holding INR1,00,000 balance in accounts Payments and remittance services through various channels including branches, BCs and mobile banking Internet banking Can function as a BC of another bank Payment banks to be ring-fenced from the other businesses of the promoter group Distribution of simple financial products such as insurance and mutual funds Utility bill payment Net worth of INR1,000m at all times Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): 15% Leverage ratio: >=3% No lending activity CAR as per Basel I standards since the banks are not expected to deal with sophisticated products To maintain cash reserve ratio (CRR) with RBI Cash for operational activities and liquidity management Investments, mainly in government securities/treasury bills with maturity up to one year (statutory liquidity ratio equivalent) Access to call and money market for liquidity management Provision of savings products to under-banked population Supply of credit to small business units, small farmers, micro and small industries, and other unorganised sector entities Resident individuals/professionals with 10 years of experience in finance Companies and societies, NBFCs, MFIs, local area banks (LABs) Business houses and NBFCs promoted by them may not be eligible Credit and savings functions Distribution of simple financial products such as insurance and mutual funds Cannot set up NBFC subsidiaries Expansion to be monitored; at least 25% of branches in unbanked rural areas Minimum paid up equity capital is INR1,000m. CAR: 15% of RWA Subject to all prudential norms and regulations of RBI as applicable to commercial banks High priority sector requirement At least 50% of its loan portfolio to constitute of loans up to INR2.5m primarily to micro enterprises Source: RBI Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 50 Microfinance Institutions Figure 83 Can NBFC-MFIs Opt for any of these Licences? Bank category Advantages Payment banks Provide MFIs‟ promoters not a preferred with greater operating option for MFIs leverage (common branches and operating premises) Expand the role of NBFCMFIs in fostering savings habits of its JLG members (currently under the role as a banking correspondent, this is not the top-most priority of the BC) Reach/penetration could be as deep as MFIs‟ Small banks It can provide access to could be the lower cost of funds for MFI natural operations (if savings are evolution for not ring-fenced/partially ringlarge MFIs fenced and can be used a funding source by the small banks). Conversion to bank can invoke greater trust in people Avenues for the borrower to save The range of financial services can expand to include all forms of credit , deposit and other financial services Reach/penetration could be as deep as MFIs‟ Disadvantages Remarks Giving up on loaning Unable to lend and hence not suitable for business/another the existing NBFC-MFIs promoter arm may carry out the banking as they may have to stop their lending business operations. However, CRR requirements MFIs can have a Restrictions on payment bank as a investments group company and can No access to low-cost act as a banking funds mobilised correspondent of the through savings payment bank. Monitored expansion Subject to reserve requirements Developing trust with potential customers will take time (gestation for deposit services) Industry discussions suggest that mid and large MFIs are favourably considering applying for small bank licences. Source: Ind-Ra Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 51 Microfinance Institutions 15. Appendix 13: Performance of Top 15 MFIs In the MFI sector, the top 15 MFIs constitute about 80% of the sector in terms of the GLP. Of them, only SKS Microfinance Limited is listed while Bandhan is expected to start banking services in FY16. The list below represents the top 15 MFIs ranked by their portfolio size (2QFY15) Figure 84 Largest Indian NBFC-MFIs (excluding restructured MFIs) Microfinance Institution Bandhan Financial Services Pvt Ltd (Bandhan) SKS Microfinance Ltd (SKS) Janalakshmi Financial Services Pvt Ltd (Janalakshmi) Ujjivan Financial Services Pvt Ltd (Ujjivan) Equitas Microfinance India Pvt Ltd (Equitas) Satin Creditcare Network Limited (Satin) Muthoot Mahila Mitra (Muthoot) Grameen Financial Services Pvt Ltd (GFSPL) ESAF Microfinance (ESAF) Grama Vidiyal Microfinance Ltd (GVML) Utkarsh Microfinance Private Limited (Utkarsh) Sonata Finance Private Limited (Sonata) Suryoday Microfinance Private Limited (Suryoday) Future Financial Services Ltd (FFSL) Arohan Financial Services Pvt. Ltd (Arohan) GLP (INRbn) 67 32 26 24 19 12 10 9 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 Source: MFIN The list excludes the MFIs that are currently under restructuring (Spandana, Share, Asmitha, BSFL) Figure 85 Share of Top 15 MFIs Share in MFI GLP Share in branch network Share in borrowers 90 75 60 45 30 15 Top 15 Arohan FFSL Suryoday Sonata Utkarsh GVML ESAF GFSPL Muthoot Satin Equitas Ujjivan Janalakshmi SKS Bandhan 0 Source: MFIN Vintage and first mover advantages enable established MFIs to have a higher share in GLP and borrowers with lower share in branches. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 52 Microfinance Institutions Figure 86 Growth of Top 15 MFIs YoY growth (GLP) YoY growth (Branches) Top 15 Arohan FFSL Suryoday Sonata Utkarsh GVML ESAF GFSPL Muthoot Satin Equitas Ujjivan Janalakshmi SKS Bandhan 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 Source: MFIN The large and mid-sized MFIs (except Bandhan and SKS) have experienced higher growth in 2QFY15 over 2QFY14. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 53 Microfinance Institutions 16. Appendix 14: Global Models of Development of the MFIs We have taken a sample of 15 countries with the largest MFI sectors and analysed sector trends: Legal forms and regulators 1. There could exist multiple forms of MFIs (for-profit and non-profit). In most countries, forprofit MFIs are regulated by the respective central banks. 2. Non-profit MFIs may be partially regulated or be regulated by other institutions (only in a couple of instances, Central Bank regulates them) 3. However, in most markets, efforts are on to strengthen regulation and supervision mechanisms, more so for non-profit MFIs 4. Credit bureaus existing for all markets 5. Micro insurance and remittance offered by most formal financial institutions (regulated) Savings and other products 1. Most regulated entities accept savings deposits as funding sources 2. In some countries, even unregulated entities can accept savings deposits 3. Most countries have common consumer protection agencies for financial services or all services including microfinance (not under main regulators) 4. MFIs are also permitted to lend to the SME, MME industry segments Other features/trends 1. Brazil has a strong banking correspondent model working in parallel with the MFIs 2. At a country level, MFIs have not changed their model from group lending to individual lending or vice-versa. Individual borrower may have upgraded Globally, regulators have viewed MFIs as important to achieve financial inclusion. Norms have been changed to accommodate the increased maturity of the MFIs and provide them adequate business scope. With the growing confidence in the sector, RBI may relax certain limiting MFI norms or grant small bank licences liberally to strong MFIs and increase their role in financial inclusion. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 54 Microfinance Institutions 17. Appendix 15: The JLG Model In the 1970s, Muhammad Yunus experimented with lending USD40-equivalent each in local currency to 42 families affected by a famine in Bangladesh to reconstruct their lives. He believed the absence of collateral was not a reason to deny the poor and the disadvantaged access to financial services, especially credit. Providing this access would immediately allow them to put in practice their skills in the field of agriculture, animal husbandry, primitive garment industry and other rural services. His experience in lending to these below-poverty-line borrowers and various other experiments culminated into the grameen model of microfinance and led to the establishment of the Grameen Bank. The model, with local alterations, is operational in most parts of the developing world and to a certain extent, among the poor in certain developed countries. 17.1. Features of a „Grameen‟ or JLG Model Figure 87 Clients or Borrowers • Borrowers form a group of 5-20 members. • Typically, they are from the same local area and know each other. • Group members are encouraged to meet frequently and help each other solve problems. • They may not have access to formal banking channels • They may have minimal assets to offer as colleteral. • Group members are the borrowers. • They follow the concept of joint liability where the group pays on behalf of the defaulter. • Joint liability brings intense social pressure on the defaulter. • If the group also defaults on the joint liability, members become ineligible for future access to credit. • Loans generally are used for income generating purposes. Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) • The loan officer is the pivotal representative of the MFI. • The loan officer forms JLG. • The loan officer fosters credit behaviour and explains the concept to the members. • MFIs offer door step service to JLGs. The loan officer goes to each village under his coverage and forms JLGs. • MFIs loan money to group members on higher interest than banks (high operatings costs and lack of collateral). • In addition to credit, MFIs may offer savings deposits, microinsurance and other financial services. • The loan officer interacts with the JLG periodically and performs credit, recovery and other functions Source: Ind-Ra The JLG model is the widest model implemented globally for financial inclusion. Asian, South and Central American countries dominate the microfinance universe. Some of these large MFIs became so important to the national economy that they were converted into banks (Grameen Bank - Bangladesh, Tameer Microfinance Bank - Pakistan, BancoCompartamos, S.A - Mexico). Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 55 Microfinance Institutions 17.2. Global Market The JLG model spread as a means of financial inclusion from Bangladesh to Central and South America and then other parts of the world. The global microfinance market is over USD84bn according to Mix Market. Figure 88 Global MFI Outstanding Book Size (USDbn) 90 84.6 77.7 66.4 75 55.9 60 38.2 45 44.6 25.7 30 15 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: mixmarket.org, ex-China ; Data as on December 2012; reporting as on December 2013 is inadequate in our opinion The global MFI sector grew at a CAGR of over 23% over 2006-2012 as the market is underpenetrated and the demand is high. Asia and South and Central America (S&CA) constitute almost 40% of the MFI universe each in 2012. The data may exclude government-run independent microfinance programmes such as India‟s SHG-bank linkage programme. Figure 89 Figure 90 Regional Share (2006) Regional Share (2012) Africa 8% Africa 11% Europe 16% South & Central America 41% Asia 35% Source: mixmarket.org, ex-China 17.3. Europe 6% South & Central America 41% Asia 42% Source: mixmarket.org, ex-China How does an Ideal Grameen or JLG Model Work Even when the MFI offers savings services in most regulated MFI markets, they cannot be offset against outstanding dues. The process of JLG formation may be adopted by the MFIs to suit local needs or dynamics. This low credit cost model primarily works on two main factors: Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 1. High involvement: The MFI officer is in touch with the borrowers as frequently as once a week. The financial services are offered at the doorstep. The follow-up for repayments is as frequent as the group meetings. 2. The joint liability structure: The entire group pays on behalf of the defaulting member to ensure continued access to credit. 56 Microfinance Institutions Figure 91 Formation and Operations of JLG Model The facilitator/officer (could be an employee of the MFI or NGO assisting MFI increase its outreach) would set up an office in a suitable location covering a cluster of villages He would search for potential borrowers and explain to them the concept of joint liability and how it acts as an enabler for access to credit He would foster groups of 5-10 individuals as a JLG. The group meets periodically in presence of the officer and the individuals discuss the problems faced by them, potential solutions, business plans, economic needs, etc. When the group exhibits certain saving behaviours and requisite group dynamics, about two members become eligible for loans If the two borrowers in the JLG exhibit no delinquency and repay the principal and the interest for a year, all the group members become eligible for loans In case a borrower fails to pay up, other members pay on his behalf Figure 92 NPA Experience of MFIs in Various MFI Markets The credit costs borne by the MFIs are typically low except at the time of microfinance crises in various parts of the world as was the case in India in October 2010. The portfolio quality of MFIs is measured by PAR (portfolio at risk) and write-off ratio. PAR 30 indicated the percentage of loan portfolio for which dues are over 30 days. Write-off includes the percentage of loan portfolios that have been written off according to local institutional regulations or MFI‟s guidelines as applicable. Country (%) Indonesia Peru Colombia Bolivia Ecuador India Mongolia Kenya Chile Brazil Mexico Paraguay Cambodia Bangladesh Azerbaijan PAR 30 PAR 90 Write-off 0.0 5.8 6.1 1.0 3.0 14.0 1.6 6.0 9.8 6.0 4.7 10.1 0.0 6.5 1.9 0.0 4.8 4.9 0.8 1.9 13.9 1.2 3.1 7.0 5.3 4.1 8.6 0.0 5.9 1.7 0.0 3.3 1.6 0.5 0.5 2.2 0.7 0.0 0.1 2.9 8.9 2.8 0.1 1.2 0.8 Source: mixmarket.org 2012 Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 57 Microfinance Institutions The JLG model was characterised by joint liability and as a consequence low credit costs. Global thinkers and policy makers heralded the model as a means of financial inclusion of about two-thirds of the global population profitably. The MFIs enjoyed sky-high valuations and were the darlings of the street. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 58 Microfinance Institutions 18. Appendix 16: Indian Experience: SHG vs. JLG Model The Grameen model adopted in early 2000s by various NGOs/societies followed the one followed in Bangladesh. It was realised that MFI lending could be profitable under the JLG model and hence many NGOs converted themselves into NBFCs or for-profit organisations. The for-profit NBFCs grew over FY06-FY11; the adopted JLG model has stood on its own against the world‟s largest microfinance programme – Bank-SHG linkage - supported by various government agencies in India. The key features of the JLG model and the Bank-SHG linkage models are enumerated in the table below: 18.1. Structural Differences (FY11 and Earlier) Figure 93 Key Differences in the SHG and JLG Models SHG-Bank linkage Participating Lending institutions: institutions Commercial banks, co-operative and (features and form) regional rural banks Regulatory and implementation: RBI, NABARD, SIDBI, etc. Group fostering: NGOs and other SHPIs for up to six months Group size Liability structure Set-up costs Loan features and tenor Credit costs Sustainability Institutions: Perception and acceptability JLG model Lending institutions: NBFCs, Section 25 companies, Societies and trusts (other than NBFCs, all are non-profit) Regulatory and implementation: RBI (with regard to prudential and deposit related norms) Group fostering: Two weeks to one month 10-20 members 5-10 members Banks open the account in the name of The liability is on the group. In case a the SHG. The lending is to the group and member defaults, other members pay on hence the liability is on the group as well. his behalf to maintain their access to credit. In case a group member and thereby the group defaults, the group is no longer If the group defaults, the members are eligible for credit not eligible for credit High; the initial costs are borne by the Medium; group fostering guidelines not SHPIs, part of which is reimbursed by as long and stringent as those for SHG NABARD Two-to-four years Maximum one year Interest rates between 3% and 12% Interest rate up to 35%-40% All India: 6.8% in FY14, 18%-25% in 0.5%-1% of the portfolio on account of some large states JLG structure The programme sustains on government For-profit entities can continue running sponsorship and support and NABARD their business till it is profitable reimbursements and refinance facilities available to banks Government and banks are viewed with MFIs are trusted more if they have been relatively higher level of trust. around for some time or are famous through the word of mouth. However, banks are viewed as complex entities with complex documentation and They are perceived as easier to deal with multiple requirements (an applicant may than banks, with less documentation, need to make three-to-four trips to the quick credit, door-step service. bank and forgo the income for that period). On default, MFIs are very strict with the NGOs and other entities are trusted if borrowers and hence score lower than they have been around for some time. banks on the trust factor. Source: Ind-Ra Though the size and scale of SHG-bank linkage in India was multiple times that of MFI operations in FY08, MFIs flourished. This was because of MFIs‟ many features such as penetration, profit incentives, door-step service, regular involvement with JLG members, etc. This reflects in the relative growth observed in both the models of microfinance. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 59 Microfinance Institutions 18.1.1. Borrower Outreach Figure 94 Borrower Outreach of SHG and JLG Models in India FY08 (m) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 SHG-Bank channel members MFI channel (borrowers) Source: NABARD annual reports, Sa-Dhan, MFIN and Ind-Ra‟s estimates Under the SHG model, the borrowing is in the name of the SHG and the amount may be distributed to four-to-10 members, depending on their need and the group approval. However, all the members have access to credit. The MFIs report their data based on the number of borrowers/loans. MFIs have increased their outreach by over 2x from FY08 till date. The fall in the number of borrowers in FY12 and FY13 can be attributed to the AP crisis. 18.1.2. Portfolio Size: JLG Based Institutions Catching Up Figure 95 Portfolio of SHG and JLG Models in India (Outstanding Basis) SHG-Bank Channel (INRbn) MFI Channel 500 200 100 312 280 300 227 183 170 124 429 394 363 400 305 216 209 223 117 35 60 0 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Source: NABARD annual reports, Sa-Dhan, MFIN and Ind-Ra‟s estimates MFIs‟ pace of increase in the loan portfolio size is higher than that of the SHG-Bank linkage programme. MFIs‟ portfolio has increased by over 9x in eight years while that of SHGs has increased by 3.5x. The easy availability of MFI credit and other features as described earlier, the share of MFIs increased to 42% in FY14 from 22% in FY07 in the Indian microfinance universe. Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 60 Microfinance Institutions 18.1.3. Share of MFIs Increasing in Indian Microfinance Universe Figure 96 Share of MFIs Increasing vs. SHG in Indian Microfinance Universe SHG JLG 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Source: NABARD annual reports, Sa-Dhan, MFIN and Ind-Ra‟s estimates One of the reasons for the high returns in MFIs was controlled credit costs due to the JLG model. This factor contributed to the growing perception that the poor are bankable and their willingness and intent to repay cannot be questioned. However, the credit for the same can be attributed to the joint liability of the borrowers and having continuous access to credit. 18.1.4. JLG-based Model has Lower NPAs Figure 97 Pct of Portfolio Outstanding (%) 8 7 6 5 4 2.90 3 2 0.38 1 0 2007 JLG NPA SHG NPA 6.92 2.90 2.94 0.38 0.35 0.35 2008 2009 2010 Source: mixmarket.org (MFI; year ending December), NABARD (SHG; Financial Year) Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 61 Microfinance Institutions 18.1.5. Share of for-profit NBFC-MFIs Increasing The earliest MFIs were run by NGOs and societies since they were already in this field and close to the borrowers. Experience showed that MFI lending could be a profitable business; and the profits could be ploughed back into the business to further the goal of financial inclusion. The share of NBFCs in the MFI space increased because of two main reasons: 1. MFI business was spun off by NGOs/societies/trusts into NBFCs 2. For-profit NBFCs can attract debt and equity funding for expansion 3. Management incentives linked to portfolio expansion Figure 98 Increasing Share of NBFCs in the Indian Microfinance Sector NBFCs MFIs Non-NBFC MFIs 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Source: Sa-Dhan, MFIN, Ind-Ra‟s estimates Microfinance: Strong Comeback January 2015 62 Microfinance Institutions ALL CREDIT RATINGS ASSIGNED BY INDIA RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. 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