2008-2009 Q1 Results

Transcription

A2A
Results &
2009-2013 Plan
May 2009
Agenda
• Company Highlights
• 2008 Strategic achievements & results
• 2009-2013 Business Plan
• Appendix: Q1 2009 results
This document has been prepared by A2A solely for the use at investor and analyst meetings.
This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or subscribe any shares and neither it nor any part of it shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or
commitment whatsoever.
Some information contained herein and other material discussed at the meetings may include forward-looking information based on A2A’s current beliefs and expectations. These statements are based on
current plans, estimates, projections, and projects and therefore you should not place undue reliance on them.
Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. We caution you that a number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forwardlooking statement. Such factors include, but are not limited to: changes in global economic business, changes in the price of certain commodities including electricity, gas and coal, the competitive market and
regulatory factors.
Moreover, forward-looking statements are current only at the date they are made.
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
2
2008: Creation of a new player with
an attractive growth outlook
• A2A originates from the merger among AEM, ASM and
Amsa, three companies with a history of over 100 years
• A2A is an energy-focused player deeply rooted in its
relevant region
• 1st Local utility in Italy by revenues, margins and
market cap
MARKET CAPITALIZATION (M€)*
3,982
First local utility
in Italy by
market
capitalization
2,052
1,580
1,194
Enìa
a2a
acea
hera
Iride
346
271
enia+iride
ascopiave
acegas aps
*Average Market Capitalization: 31/12/2008
3
Shareholders & Strategic Partnerships
Strong shareholding structure and key role in energy market
SHAREHOLDERS
MUNICIPALITY
OF MILAN
MUNICIPALITY
OF BRESCIA
27.5%
27.5%
8%
MARKET
2%
38%
51%
10%
15%
DELMI
50%
50%
TDE
50%
50%
5%
20%
61%
90%
19%
10%
60%
MUNICIPALITY
OF BERGAMO
5%
27%
50%
20%
27%
22%
42%
HYDROS
51%
40%
•
•
•
•
•
11.1 bn € revenue
1.6 bn € EBITDA
12.1 installed GW
50.2 produced Twh
13.8 Bcm gas
+
•
•
•
•
DOLOMITI 49%
ENERGY
8.1 bn € revenue
0.8 bn € EBITDA
6.5 installed GW
21.2 produced Twh
51%
•
•
•
•
1.3 bn € revenue
0.4 bn € EBITDA
7.8 installed GW
24.0 produced Twh
4%
10%
2%
STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS
a) 2008 Figures; b) Edison installed power includes 50% of Edipower; c) Dolomiti Energia is the new player resulting from the merger of Trentino Servizi and
Dolomiti Energia
share inwas
newprepared
player isby
8%)
This(A2A
information
A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
4
Business areas breakdown 2008
Significant presence in diversified and complementary business
areas supported by a solid asset base
BUSINESS AREAS
ENERGY
COGENERATION
AND DISTRICT
HEATING
WASTE
NETWORKS
Generation
plants
Cogeneration
plants
Collection
Power networks
Portfolio
Management
Networks
Treatment
Gas networks
POWER/GAS sold
Heat sold
Disposal
Water
5
A2A role in core business areas
Strong asset base in Italy and growing presence in Europe
Waste treatment plants
Cogeneration plants
ITALY
POWER GENERATION
Hydro plants
Thermal plants
14 Hydro plants: GW 0.9
9 Thermal plants: GW 2.8
TRADING: consolidated
activities on main power and
environmental markets
GERMANY:
• Load balancing RWE, EnBW
(2006)
• EEX Day-Ahead (2006)
• EEX continuous trading (2007)
• EEX Future (2008)
RUSSIA:
• Gas imported (~1 Bcm)
RETAIL: 12 TWh power and 2
Bcm gas sales
District Heating: 850 MWt
and 200 MWe installed
capacity
AUSTRIA:
• Power: Imports/exports
• Load balancing APG (2008)
WTE: 1.5 Mtonn/y
treatment capacity
SLOVENIA:
FRANCE:
• Power: Imports/Exports
• Load balancing RTE (2003)
• Powernext Day-Ahead (2004)
• Powernext continuous trading
(2007)
• Powernext future (2008)
SWITZERLAND:
NETHERLANDS:
• Gas imported (~2,5 Bcm)
GREECE:
• Power: Imports/Exports
• Load balancing HTSO (2008)
• Operating on DESMIE (2008)
30 TWh
Power Portfolio
6 Bcm
Gas Portfolio
1.3 TWht
Heat produced
1.7 Mtonn waste
disposed*
2008 figures; * WTEs and landfills
6
A2A role in core business areas
Extensive coverage and strong role as catalyst for consolidation
in Northern Italy
A2A LOCAL PRESENCE ACROSS NORTHERN ITALY
SO
VA CO
A2A “LOCAL” PARTNERS
TN
Camuna
Energia
BG
BS
MI
PV
AL
LO
CR
MN
PC
Proaris
A2A covered areas
Soc. Serv.
Valdisotto
A2A possible expansion areas
7
Agenda
8
2008 Strategic Plan on track
Solid results achieved to support future development
FOCUS AREAS
STATUS
KEY ACHIEVEMENTS
•
•
•
•
•
Industrial
development in
Italy and abroad
•
•
M&A deals
•
•
•
Integration,
rationalization and
synergy extraction
Energy
1
•
•
•
•
Start up of Gissi (800 MW1) and Turbigo (854 MW2) CCGT plants
Acerra WTE deal closed to manage plant (600 Kton/y3)
Gazprom Joint Venture (1 Bcm of imported gas)
DH plants start up (2008: +60MWt; 2009: +60MWt)
Tender awarded to A2A for the construction of waste MBT plant in
Greece
Inert-recovery plant in Brescia (30 Kton/y) fully on stream; start
up of Barengo landfill (50 Kton/y3)
Swap of 20% stake in E.ON Produzione (formerly Endesa Italia)
with assets: Monfalcone thermal plant (980 MW) and Calabria
hydro plants (490 MW). Deal closing expected in March 2009
Acquisition of French DH & CHP player Coriance (~500 MWt4)
from Cofathec
Acquisition of Varese’s multi-utility Aspem (100 Mcm gas
distributed; 30 Mcm water, 100K clients in waste)
ACSM Como–AGAM Monza merger (A2A sole industrial partner)
Company rationalization in progress (streamlining of A2A Group
through internal consolidation)
Process re-organization nearly completed
Information system integration ongoing
Strong improvement in corporate governance
District Heating
Waste
Networks
A2A Group
full potential, A2A’s stake: 89,95%; 2 A2A’s stake: 20%; 3 full potential; 4 2008 pro-forma figures (relative to owned share);
9
Group 2008 figures
Industrial growth backed by sound financial structure
2007rest.d
Pro-forma
€M data
2008
Change
Change %
NET SALES
5,175
6,094
+919
+17.6%
EBITDA
1,013
1,068
+55
+5.4%
EBIT
684
699
+15
+2.2%
NET INCOME
521
316
-205
-39.4%
end 2007rest.d
Pro-forma
NET CAPITAL
EMPLOYED
8,054
(3,349)*
NFP
2008
Change
8,206
+152
(3,484)
-135
+17
EQUITY
4,705
4,722
NFP/EQUITY
0.71x
0.73x
NFP/EBITDA
3.3x
3.3x
*including 85 mln extraordinary dividend
10
Group 2008 figures
EBITDA growing in almost every business area
€M data
ENERGY
COGENERATION
AND DISTRICT
HEATING
WASTE
EBITDA
2007
447
EBITDA
2008
439
∆
-8
49
67
+18
308
320
+12
EBITDA BREAKDOWN
2007
Waste
29%
Networks
24%
NETWORKS
258
276
Energy
42%
Cogeneration
and District Heating
5%
+18
2008
OTHER
SERVICES &
CORPORATE
TOTAL
-49
-34
+15
Waste
29%
Energy
40%
1,013
1,068
+55
Networks
25%
Cogeneration
6%
11
Group 2008 figures
From EBITDA to EBT
2007
Pro-forma
rest.d
2008
Change
EBITDA
1,013
1,068
+55
D&A, Write Downs
and Provisions
-330
-369
-39
Deprec.Hydro
Debt increase, interest
rate increase, writedown of financial assets
€M data
Key point
Financial charges
-147
-181
-34
Derivatives/others
+7
-19
-26
Associates and JV
and others
+153
+60
-93
TdE, asset
write-down
AGAM
Others
-3
+13
+16
Amsa positive
claim
EBT
693
572
-121
12
Group 2008 figures
From EBT to Net Income
€M data
EBT
2007 Proforma rest.d
2008
Change
693
572
-121
Key point
Tax rates;
Robin Tax;
undeductible
items
TAXES
-170
-227
-57
IFRS 5
+80
2
-78
Endesa
MINORITIES
-82
-31
+51
TdE,
Plurigas
NET INCOME
521
316
-205
13
Group 2008 NFP
Around 200 €M increase mainly due to capex and dividends
€M data
-299
*
-3.264
,
-412
+626
-14
-3.484
,
-43
-140
+62
-85 extraordinary
dividends
-55 purchase of 2%
Edipower
NFP
1/1/2008
Change in
Assets/Liabilities
Net profit
+D&A
Capex
Extraordinary
Buy-Back
Dividends
NFP
31/12/2008
Others
* excluding €M85 extraordinary dividends
14
Group 2008 debt structure
Efficient debt structure with low weight of short term debt
INTEREST RATE STRUCTURE
DEBT STRUCTURE
<31/12/2009
01/01/10-31/12/11
01/01/12-31/12/13
>31/12/2013
Hedged
Floating Rate
Fixed Rate
12%
12%
22%
22%
27%
11%
39%
11%
27%
39%
50%
39%
>31/12/2013
31/12/12-31/12/13
31/12/10-31/12/11
<31/12/2009
Total debt: 3,645 €M
Hedged
Floating Rate
Fix Rate
39%
RATING
Average debt life: 4.9 YRS
Committed Credit Lines available: 980 €M
15
2008 Power portfolio and 2009 achievements
Asset base expansion to strengthen A2A’s role
ENERGY
A2A’s 2008 GENERATION PORTFOLIO
Hydroelectric plants:
• Braulio
• Stazzona
• Lovero
• Grosio
• Grosotto
GW
• Premadio
• 5 plants close to BS
• Mese
• Udine
• Tusciano
NEW ASSETS CONTRIBUTION
GW +1.8
GW +0.4
0.5
Oil 10%
Coal 3%
Hydro 24%
GW 3.7
• Cassano d’Adda
• Ponti sul Mincio
• Chivasso
• Turbigo
• Piacenza
• Sermide
• Brindisi
• San Filippo del Mela
• Gissi
GW 2.8
5.6
Gissi 2
CCGT
2009
Installed
capacity
1.0
0.9
Thermoelectric plants:
0.4
3.4
0.4
3.7
Endesa
2007
Installed
capacity
Gissi 1
Monfalcone Hydro
2008
CCGT Installed Coal & Oil Calabria
capacity
2009
~50% increase in installed capacity
CCGT 62%
Note: 20% of Edipower included
16
2007-2008 Results (1/2)
ENERGY
VOLUMES (GWh)
Intermediated
Ipex volumes
GREEN CERTIFICATES POSITION
Intermediated
Ipex volumes
Mwh data
A2A Group production
34,444
30,036
7,937
3,759
3,049
4,190
34,444
30,036
3,759
7,937
A2A Group needs
516,155
-316,553
Delta
199,602
+0.9%
1,772
5,777
4,247
5,975
2,792
1,991
2,849
4,755
3,929
5,682
CO2 NET POSITION
13,889
9,695
9,580
1,796
2,381
2007
2008
Sources
12,649
4,641
3,929
2007
2008
Uses
Foreign markets
Ipex
Domestic purchases
Single Buyer
Thermal
Hydro
Captive customers
Eligibles, Wholesales
Ipex
Foreign markets
Kton
Energy
District heating
Waste
Total
TOTAL NAP 2008
4,951
784
132
5,867
CO2 emission
2008
4,434
575
154
5,163
17
2007-2008 Results (2/2)
ENERGY
EBITDA (€M)
SCENARIO
Average data
Brent
2007
2008
Change
%
35%
$/bbl
72.66
98.41
CO2 System Average Cost
€/Tonn
0.20
22.31
GC System Average Cost
€/MWh
103.10
85.36
-17%
€/$
1.37
1.47
7%
Brent €
€/bbl
52.78
66.02
25%
PUN BL
€/MWh
70.98
86.96
23%
PUN Peak
€/MWh
103.39
112.75
9%
PUN Off-Peak
€/MWh
52.98
72.48
37%
CCGT Standard Gas Costs
€/MWh
48.73
67.34
38%
Spark Spread CCGT
€/MWh
22.25
19.62
-12%
Spark Spread CCGT vs Peakload
€/MWh
54.66
45.40
-17%
Spark Spread CCGT vs Off-Peak
€/MWh
4.25
5.13
21%
Spark Spread CCGT- Environmental Costs
€/MWh
18.33
16.14
-12%
€/$
POSITIVE KEY FACTS
- Positive dynamics of power exchange
prices, in particular off peak prices
- Increase in hydroelectric production
- Increase in margin and volumes traded on
the foreign market
+20
349
Ebitda 2007
369
Ebitda 2008
NEGATIVE KEY FACTS
- Premadio plants stop (Unit 1 and 2)
- Cassano plants stop (Unit 1)
18
2008 Gas portfolio and 2009 achievements
2007-2008 Results
ENERGY
EBITDA (€M)
SCENARIO
-28
c€/mc
98
70
Q107
Q207
Q307
Q407
Q108
A2A Retail Gas Cost
Q208
Q308
Q408
2007
Gas AEEG Tariff
VOLUMES (Mmc)
2008
KEY FACTS
Positive key facts
2007
2008
Retail
1,797
1,859
Wholesales
Power
1,057
1,879
1,565
1,728
Total sales
4,733
5,152
Increase in gas sales, compared to the
same period of 2007, characterized by
an exceptionally mild weather
Negative key facts
- Decreasing the profitability due to the
impact of the scenario on indexation
formulas
- Non current items recorded in 2007
19
2008 Cogeneration & DH portfolio and ’09 achievements
Expansion in France through Coriance acquisition
DISTRICT
HEATING
A2A’s 2008 HEATING PORTFOLIO1
Cogeneration
Plants
Networks
• Thermal installed
capacity: ~ MWt 850
• Electric installed
capacity: ~ MWe 200
CORIANCE ASSETS: HIGHLIGHTS
Heat sold
• Networks: km
7103
• Heat sold: TWh 1.6
LIMOGES
TOULOUSE
CASTRES
LABRUGUIERE
Carnovali
Famagosta
BS
NO
Lamarmora
Novara
(under construction)
Linate-S.Giulia
(2009 start up)
Note:
1
2008 figures: pre-closing;
2
Electric inst. cap. (MWe)2
75
DIJON
Thermal Production (TWht)2
VILLEURBANNE
ANDREZIEUXBOUTHEON
0.8
Electric Production (TWhe)2
0.3
SALON-DE-PROVENCE
MONTPELLIER
MARTIGUES
Centrale
Nord
BG
MI
0.5
PIERRELATTE
Goltara
Novate
Milanese
Thermal inst. cap. (GWt)2
• EE sold: TWh 0.4
LAVAL
Tecnocity
15
LILLE
PARIS
Canavese
(2008 start up)
District heating/cooling (#)2
2008 pro-forma figures (relative to owned share);
3
2007 figures
•Consolidated presence in DH business and
in power production from cogeneration
plants
•Important player in generation from
innovative technologies
•Opening of French market through
Coriance acquisition with interesting
growth and diversification opportunities
for A2A
20
2008 Cogeneration & DH portfolio and ’09 achievements
2007-2008 Results
DISTRICT
HEATING
EBITDA (€M)
KEY FACTS
+18
– Increase in heat sales compared to the
same period of 2007
– Positive impact on EBITDA due to the
consolidation of Coriance from August 2008
67
49
2007
2008
ELECTRICITY (GWh)
HEAT VOLUMES (GWh)
+29%
+8%
1,905
258
1,475
122
496
100
552
143
185
587
567
170
200
2007
2008
Purchases
from third
parties
Purchases
from other
sectors
Other plants
Coriance
plants
Lamarmora
Famagosta,
Tecnocity
438
2007
472
2008
21
2008 Waste portfolio and 2009 achievements
A2A’s leading role in waste management consolidated by
Acerra’s new WTE
A2A’s 2008 WASTE PORTFOLIO
Collection
Treatment
PARTENOPE AMBIENTE HIGHLIGHTS
Disposal
ACERRA (NAPLES) NEW WTE
ACERRA
collected1:
• Waste
Mton 0.9
disposed2:
• Energy produced:
TWhe 1.1;
TWht 0.7
• Waste
Mton 1.7
NAPLES
Filago
Maserati
Light
Gerenzano
Bas Power
Cavriana,
Vigevano,
Castelmonte
Muggiano
Treat. Capacity (Kton/y)
600
Electricity production (MWe)
120
EBITDA (M€)
10
CAPEX3 (M€)
//
MI-Silla 2
Barengo
Cavaglià
Brescia
BG
Calcinato
B
MI
Vespia
S
Montichiar
i
Castelnedolo
Buffalora
T
O
Comacchio
Villafalletto
Corteolona
ITS® (Intelligent Transfer Stations) –
MBT (Mechanical Biological Treatm.)
WTE (Waste to Energy)
Lacchiarella
Giussago
Landfill and biogas
Other (waste treatment, glass)
WASTE
• Concession awarded to A2A to
manage a new waste plant
• Contract covers management of
new Acerra WTE and connected
waste treatment plants in Caivano
• Well-established know-how in waste
plant management leads to high
profitability and no CAPEX
requirements/obligations
Waste collection area
(1)main municipalities; (2)WTE and landfill; (3)A2A is in charge for plants management only
22
2008 Waste portfolio and 2009 achievements
2007-2008 Results
WASTE
EBITDA (€M)
KEY FACTS
– Margin improvement from waste collection and
disposal services for private customers and other
Municipalities
– CIP6 tariff increase, partially offset by the expiry
of CIP6 incentive for Brescia WTE plant and lower
WTE plants’ electricity production mainly due to
extraordinary maintenance
– Heat revenues increase due to positive impact of
prices and volumes
– Lower waste volumes disposed in Montichiari,
Cavaglia 2B and Cavriana landfills. Additional
landfill capacity in Comacchio and Barengo.
+12
308
320
2007
2008
WASTE VOLUMES (Kton)
ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION (GWh)
-5%
3,002
Landfill 429
+1%
968
980
.
.
2007
2008
-3%
2,860
1,171
+10%
1,134
Landfill 377
Treatment
1,243
Treatment
1,176
WTE 1,330
WTE 1,307
2007
2008
Collected *
HEAT PRODUCTION (GWht)
651
589
2007
2008
2007
2008
Treated
* related to main municipalities
23
2008 Networks portfolio and 2009 achievements
A major presence in regulated businesses
NETWORKS
Power networks
Gas networks
Water
• # Clients: ~M 1.1*
• # Clients: M 1.2*
• # Inhabitants: ~K 900*
• Distributed volumes: ~ TWh
12.2
• Distributed volumes: ~Bcm 2
• Distributed water: ~Mcm 90;
networks: ~Km 5,000
• Power distribution networks:
~km 15,000
• Power transmission
networks: ~Km 180
• Distribution networks: ~Km
8,000
• Transport networks: ~Km
400
• Sewage: ~Mcm 61; networks:
~Km 2,400
TN
TN
MI
• Purification: ~Mcm 62
CO
BS
AL
CO
BG
BS
MI
LO CR
PV
MN
PC
BG
BS
CH
IS CB
SA
Focus on strong local coverage and operating efficiency
*2007 figures
24
2008 Networks portfolio and 2009 achievements
2007-2008 Results
NETWORKS
EBITDA (€M)
KEY FACTS
+18
Electricity: +21 €M
276
24
258
23
Positive impact on EBITDA due to the specific
company equalisation related to the Milan
distribution network covering the 2004-2007
period, partially offset by AEEG tariff decrease
168
147
Gas: -4 €M
Negative impact due to AEEG gas tariff decrease
Water: +1 €M
88
84
2007
2008
ELECTRICITY (GWh)
Water
Electricity
Gas
Positive impact on EBITDA due to perimeter
expansion
GAS DISTRIBUTED (Mmc)
WATER (Mmc)
+4%
+1%
1,790
12,027
12,160
2007
2008
2007
-3%
1,859
88
2008
2007
85
2008 *
25
Agenda
26
2009-2013BP: A2A Strengths
Differences vis a vis other players generate value added
First player among Italian
multiutilities with both a
primary position in
regulated and unregulated
business and a promising
potential for international
expansion
Thorough local coverage
and longstanding
relationships with local
stakeholders exploiting
high quality service level
Strong focus on
environment
sustainability: large
scale renewable
productions; innovative
technologies to
increase energy
savings
Key role in industry
consolidation process
continuing successful
M&A track record
27
2009-2013BP: Threats from economic crisis
How A2A deals with the current global financial scenario
A2A needs to cope with potential
threats originating from the
crisis...
• Stock markets shock affects A2A
market cap
• Funding becomes more expensive
and hard to find due to credit crunch
• Declining commodity prices
• Shrinking GDP
• Higher short-term results focus
may deter investments with long
term payback
...but its economic results are
partially shielded by its own
peculiarities
• Low elasticity of demand for
Commodity goods and Primary
services
• Highly profitable Italian market
• Potential Cash improvement from
non-strategic asset sale
• Steady debt structure. No need
to access capital markets
A2A keeps investing in long-term projects to sustain its growth
with an unchanged strong focus on NFP
28
2009-2013BP: Strategic Development
Asset base strengthening throughout Business Plan
2009
Endesa Asset
Acquisition
2010
2011
2012
2013
Scandale
plant fully
onstream
Start up of
Monfalcone
CCGT
Start up of
DH Novara
plant
DH Bovisa
plant fully
onstream
400 MW2
800 MW1
34 MWt
89 MWt
Gissi plant
fully
onstream
Acerra WTE
fully
onstream
Power
upgrade of
BS WTE
Start up of
new Corteolona
WTE
New MI WTE
fully
onstream
720 MW2
600 Kton/y
80 Kton/y
200 Kton/y
400 Kton/y
1,5 GW1
Partnership
with
Gazprom
Start up of
BS “slag”
plant
Start up of
Castegnato
landfill
1 Bcm/y
100 Kton/y
4Mcm
Cofathec
Coriance
Acquisition
Start up
“anaerobic”
plant
670 MWt
140 Kton/y
Aspem Varese
Acquisition
34
Municipalities
New grants
for Water
16
Municipalities
Note:
1
ENERGY - POWER
ENERGY - GAS
Monfalcone
Coal Plant
Repowering
336 MW
• Strategic decision on
Monfalcone Coal plant to
be taken by 2010
• Repowering activities to
be started right after
DISTRICT HEATING
WASTE
NETWORKS
Installed capacity; 2 A2A Share, installed capacity
29
2009-2013BP: market scenario assumptions
Rising BRENT and PUN prices expected over the next years
150
100
50
Coal API 2
(€/tonn)
ICE BRENT (€/bbl)
ICE BRENT ($/bbl)
0
2007A
2008A
2009B
2010
2011
2012
2013
ICE Brent 1st
line ($/bbl)
72.7
98.4
55.7
65.0
75.0
85.0
90.0
Forward
€/$
1.37
1.47
1.32
1.33
1.34
1.35
1.35
ICE Brent 1st
line (€/bbl)
53.0
66.9
42.1
48.9
56.0
63.0
66.7
Coal API 2
(€/tonn)
88.6
146.9
84.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
110.0
30
2009-2013BP: EBITDA evolution
EBITDA ~7% increase with limited changes in business mix
BUSINESS PLAN EBITDA (€M)
Non recurring items
- Waste: CIP6 72 €M
- Networks: extraord. PSA 47 €M
- Other non recurring: 4 €M
1,068
1,000
4.8% CAGR
1,350
%
.4
+7 GR
CA
EBITDA BREAKDOWN (2008)
1,068 €M
Networks 25%
• Power 16%
• Gas 7%
• Water 2%
Energy 40%
District
Heating 5%
945
Waste 29%
500
EBITDA BREAKDOWN (2013)
1,350 €M
Networks 21%
0
2008F
2013
• Strong EBITDA growth with
nearly unchanged business
mix and risk profile
• Power 11%
• Gas 7%
• Water 3%
Energy 43%
District
Heating 8%
Waste 28%
Note: before potential sale of not strategic asset; Corporate figures included pro-quota in other business areas
PSA = Perequazione Specifica Aziendale
31
2009-2013BP: Cumulated CAPEX Plan
Investments in highly profitable plants
KEY INVESTMENT FACTS
2009-2013 OP. CUMULATED CAPEX
(€B)
• New Gissi plant
ENERGY
DISTRICT
HEATING
• Monfalcone CCGT plant
repowering
• New plants in Milan,
Brescia and Bergamo areas
• New Milan WTE plant
WASTE
NETWORKS
• New Corteolona (PV) WTE
plant
• Connections for new
customers (power and gas)
2.8
1.8
Maintenance
34%
Energy 22%
District Heating
23%
Development*
66%
Waste 31%
Networks 22%
Type
Other 2%
Development
• New water networks
Almost 2 €B in new projects
*Includes Networks improvement investment
Scandale Thermal Plant investments (60M€) not included
32
2009-2013BP: 2008-2013P NFP
Declining NFP foreseen in new Business Plan
KEY FACTS
2008-2013 NFP BRIDGE (€M)
-314 M€
3,484
1,500
3,168
• Steady
high
dividend
policy over the next years
(at least not less than
~300 M€/year)
2,562
• Company
rationalization
with divestments of noncore assets
-4,378
NFP '08F
Investiments
and other* Dividends
Cash from
current activities
NFP '13
NFP/E: 0.7
NFP/E: 0.6
NFP/EBITDA: 3.3
NFP/EBITDA: 2.4
* includes investments, debt deriving from Endesa asset , TdE stake value increase and cash-in for divestment of not strategic assets
33
2009-2013BP: Energy highlights
ENERGY
CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT (GW)
KEY FACTS
• Available: Scandale
• Retirement Monfalcone 3
0.1
1.8
• Power capacity development
• Expansion of trading activities
• Available: Monfalcone
CCGT2 start up
0.1
0.4
0.0
6.2
• Available: Monfalcone
CCGT1
• Unavailable:
Monfalcone 4
3.7
• Energy portfolio management
optimization
CCGT
Traditional
• Available: Gissi, Monfalcone
and Idro Calabria
Hydro
2008
POWER VOLUMES* TRENDS (TWh)
29.9
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
GAS VOLUMES TRENDS (Bcm)
29.9
1%
1%
17%
57%
36%
26%
2%
43%
7%
9%
10%
9%
18%
2008
8.2
22.3
22.3
13%
1%
8.2
28%
11%
Installed
Power
11%
5%
2013
Sources
Thermo
Hydro
Other
Wholesale
Import
Ipex
Single
Buyer
57%
67%
Ipex
Wholesale,
Eligibles
18%
2008
5%
2013
Uses
Captive
customers
1%
5.2
5.2
25%
33%
16%
80%
51%
5%
2008
2013
Sources
Stock
Other
Russia
Netherlands
PSV/Other
46%
36%
30%
17%
2008
2013
Other
Power
Retail
Wholesale
Uses
* Domestic Intermediated volumes (7,9TWh), Foreign Market Intermediated volumes (4,3TWh) not included
34
2009-2013BP: Energy highlights
A2A’s net position in CO2 and green certificates
ENERGY
EMISSIONS TRADING
KTons
750
GREEN CERTIFICATES
€/Ton
704
GWh
40
€/MWh
400
650
100
300
200
120
30
400
100
80
103
150
47
-100
20
-174
-100
-129
-350
2010
2011
2012
2013
22
16
25
28
32
35
A2A unit benefit
vs average
3.8
plant*
(€/MWh)
2.7
2.7
2.4
1.9
1.9
-389
Volumes (KTons)
-421
2009
Unit (€/ton)
2008
60
10
Short from 2011
-460
-600
-227
-300
0
-500
-364
GWh
Short from 2010
Unit (€/MWh)
Unit (€/ton)
-700
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
62
70
80
85
85
85
A2A unit benefit
vs average
3.3
plant*
(€/MWh)
2.6
1.3
1.1
0.4
0.5
Unit (€/MWh)
40
A2A will maintain a competitive advantage in environmental
costs over the whole Business Plan period
* based on the entire Italian production equipment
35
2009-2013BP: Cogeneration & District Heating
highlights
DISTRICT
HEATING
KEY FACTS
BUSINESS MODEL
Electricity
• Development of ~ 600-MW new
thermal capacity
Distr. Infr.
Oil
• Further expansion of new
distribution networks
Centralized
Heating
and Cooling
Plant
Biomass
Commercial
Industrial
Natural
Gas
• Strong growth in volumes doubling
2008 heating sales by 2013
Residential
Coal
Thermal
Storage
Heat pump
COFATHEC CORIANCE (GAZ DE FRANCE)1
HEAT CAPACITY AND VOLUMES
CAGR +8%
CAGR +12%
CAGR +8%
2.8
1.8
2.3
GW
TWh
1.2
• Over 20 plants managed
TWh
1.9
• Installed capacity: 670 MWt
1.3
2008
2013
Capacity2
Note:
1
• 4th district heating player in France
(‘08 REV : €63M; ’08 EBITDA : €8.5M)
• Diversified technology/fuel mix
(cogeneration, biomass, waste, etc.)
A2A acquired Coriance in August 2008
2008
2013
Production
2008
2013
Sales
2008 figures (relative to 100% share of Coriance participated companies);
2
Including WTE capacity and third parties plant available capacity
36
2009-2013BP: Waste highlights
WASTE
WASTE VOLUMES (Mton)
KEY FACTS
• Expiration of CIP6 incentives offset
by cash flow from new investments
(e.g. new WTE plants in 2012-2013)
and operating synergies
• Potential expansion also abroad
leveraging innovation and technology
advanced expertise
• New orders from Spain, Greece and
United Kingdom
POWER PRODUCTION (TWhe)
CAGR +8%
4.3
2.9
CAGR +2%
0.9
2008F
1.2
Other
treatm.
1.9
Landfill 0.5
0.4
1.0
2013
COLLECTED*
1.3
WTE 1.8
2008F
2013
TREATED**
HEAT PRODUCTION (TWht)
CAGR +5%
CAGR +9%
0.9
1.7
0.7
1.1
2008F
2013
2008F
2013
*main municipalities; **treatment plants + landfills + WTE
37
2009-2013BP: Networks highlights
NETWORKS
REGULATORY SCENARIO
KEY FACTS
• WACC: 7% (distribution), 7.2% (metering)
ELECTRICITY • Price cap*: 1.9% (distribution), 5%(metering)
• Electricity and gas: equalisation for
electricity distribution grid,
efficiency improvement and
infrastructure maintenance (e.g.
metering, networks)
GAS
• Water: increase in water tariffs and
infrastructure development (i.e.
sewage and depuration)
ELECTRICITY (TWh)
WATER
GAS (Bcm)
CAGR +1%
• WACC: 7.6% (distribution), 8.0% (metering)
• Price cap*: 3.2% (distribution), 3.6%(metering)
• AATO Plan, 2007-2031 period:
Water tariffs: 7% return on invested capital
Efficiency improvement: 1%
WATER (Mcm)
CAGR +2%
CAGR +3%
96
12.2
85
12.7
2.2
1.9
2008F
2013
2008F
2013
2008F
2013
* “X-Factor” does not include inflation rate; AATO = Autorità d'Ambito Territoriale Ottimale
Source : AEEG, AATO
38
A2A Value Proposition
• Business diversification: low risk profile
• Best in class for service quality: high
customer's loyalty
• Large scale production from renewable
sources: competitive cost structure
• Sound capital structure
• Solid management's track record
Attractive and sustainable return to shareholders
39
Agenda
40
2008-2009 Q1 – Main financial highlights
Q1 2008
restated
€M data
Q1 2009
Change
Change %
NET SALES
1,665
1,896
+231
+13.9%
EBITDA
317
351
+34
+10.7%
EBIT
233
260
+27
+11.6%
NET INCOME
129
92
-37
-28.7%
NET INCOME
ADJUSTED*
129
148*
+19
+14.7%
* Adjusted for “Moratoria fiscale”
end 2008
restated
Q1 2009
Change
NET CAPITAL
EMPLOYED
8,206
8,115
-91
NFP
(3,484)
(3,351)
+133
EQUITY
4,722
4,764
+42
NFP/EQUITY
0.73x
0.70x
41
2008-2009 Q1 Pro-forma EBITDA breakdown
€M data
EBITDA
Q12008
EBITDA
Q12009
∆ Vs 2008
EBITDA BREAKDOWN
2008
ENERGY
COGENERATION
AND DISTRICT
HEATING
121
173
+52
38
51
+13
WASTE
80
56
-24
NETWORKS
78
77
-1
OTHER
SERVICES &
CORPORATE
TOTAL
Waste
25%
Networks
25%
Energy
38%
Cogeneration
12%
Waste
16%
0
317
-6
351
2009
-6
+34
Networks
22%
Energy
48%
Cogeneration
14%
42
2008-2009 Q1 Results – Electricity (1/2)
SCENARIO
Average data
Brent
VOLUMES (GWh)
Q12008
Q12009
Change
%
$/bbl
96.46
45.77
-53%
CO2 system average cost
€/Tonn
21.47
11.46
-47%
GC System average cost
€/MWh
101.79
83.95
-18%
€/$
Intermediated
Ipex volumes
Intermediated
Ipex volumes
9,285
9,285
8,609
2,123
€/$
1.50
1.30
-13%
Brent €
€/bbl
64.28
35.14
-45%
PUN BL
€/MWh
80.76
76.50
-5%
PUN Peak
€/MWh
104.11
94.52
-9%
PUN Off-Peak
€/MWh
67.59
66.54
-2%
592
CCGT Standard Gas Costs
€/MWh
60.01
75.45
26%
844
Spark Spread CCGT
€/MWh
20.74
1.05
-95%
1,067
Spark Spread CCGT vs Peakload
€/MWh
44.10
19.07
-57%
Spark Spread CCGT vs Off-Peak
€/MWh
7.58
-8.91
-218%
Spark Spread CCGT- Environmental Costs
€/MWh
16.03
-2.24
-114%
Italian electricity demand
GWh
86,822
79,941
-8%
Net Import
GWh
11,492
13,018
13%
8,609
2,123
2,151
-9.8%
2,151
988
1,514
825
1,186
1,741
742
1,094
575
975
2,708
2,325
437
655
2008
2009
Sources
Foreign markets
Ipex
Domestic purchases
Single Buyer
Thermal
Hydro
3,366
3,564
1,067
975
2008
2009
Uses
Captive customers
Eligibles,Wholesales
Ipex
Foreign markets
43
2008-2009 Q1 Results – Electricity (2/2)
GREEN CERTIFICATES POSITION
EBITDA (€M)
MWh
A2A Group Availability
A2A Group needs
-106,879
Delta
TOTAL NAP
Q1 2009
Kton
Energy
District heating
Waste
75
1,213
340
21
1,574
Emission CO2
Q1 2009
1,102
287
23
1,412
POSITIVE KEY FACTS
-
98
-376
CO2 NET POSITION
Total
+23
106,503
Increase in hydroelectric production
Increasing margin on foreign markets
Positive impact of environmental markets
Contribution of Gissi Plant
Ebitda 2008
Ebitda 2009
NEGATIVE KEY FACTS
- Negative dynamics of power exchange prices
- Strong contraction of demand
- Overcapacity and higher import
44
2008-2009 Q1 Results – Gas
EBITDA (€M)
SCENARIO
+29
c€/mc
75
46
Q107
Q207
Q307
Q407
Q108
Retail Gas Cost
Q208
Q308
Q408
Q109
Ebitda 2008
Gas AEEG Tariff
VOLUMES (Mmc)
2008
KEY FACTS
2009
Retail
778
874
Wholesales
Power
607
509
617
400
1,894
1,891
Total sales
Ebitda 2009
Increase in gas sales due to a colder
weather compared to the same
period of 2008
Increasing profitability due to the
impact of scenario on indexation
formulas
45
2008-2009 Q1 Results – Cogeneration and District heating
EBITDA (€M)
KEY FACTS
+13
– Increase in heat sales and unit margin
compared to the same period of 2008
51
38
– Coriance and Aspem consolidation
2008
2009
ELECTRICITY (GWh)
HEAT VOLUMES (GWh)
+53%
+99%
1,260
328 *
231
822
79
265
252
94
217
51
327
354
100
112
2009
2008
Purchases
from thirds
parties
Purchases
from other
sectors
Other plants
Coriance
plants
Lamarmora
Famagosta,
Tecnocity
165
2008
2009
* of which 151 GWh related to Coriance and 7 GWh related to Aspem
46
2008-2009 Q1 Results - Waste
EBITDA (€M)
KEY FACTS
-25
Negative impact on EBITDA due to:
- expiry of Cip6 incentive for Brescia WTE plant;
- Brescia and Bergamo WTE stop for
extraordinary mainteinance,
partially offset by the margin increase of Silla plant
(stopped during the same period of 2008 for
Denox system installation).
80
55
2008
2009
WASTE VOLUMES (Kton)
ELECTRICITY (GWh)
-31%
-11%
+2%
293
719
Landfill 87
-6%
248
233
.
.
2008
2009
273
2008
2009
203
Treatment
254
WTE 338
WTE 300
2008
2009
Collected *
267
640
Landfill 86
Treatment
294
HEAT PRODUCTION (GWht)
2008
2009
Treated
* related to main municipalities
47
2008-2009 Q1 Results - Networks
KEY FACTS
EBITDA (€M)
Electricity: +5 €M
-1
78
Positive impact on EBITDA due to non current items
recorded in 2009
Gas: -3 €M
77
7
4
33
38
38
35
2008
2009
ELECTRICITY (GWh)
Positive impact on EBITDA due to an increase in gas
volumes caused by a colder weather compared to the
same period of 2008, balanced by the effect of
equalization introduced by AEEG resolution n. 159/08
aimed at normalizing gas distribution revenues
throughout the year
Water
Electricity
Gas
Water: -3 €M
Negative impact due to connection fees decrease
following ATO decisions
GAS DISTRIBUTED (Mmc)
WATER (Mmc)
+12%
-7%
+13%
961
855
3,084
2008
26
23
2,874
2009
2008
2009
2008
2009
48
2008-2009 Q1 –From EBITDA to Net Income (1/2)
Q12008
restated
Q12009
Change
EBITDA
317
351
+34
D&A, Write Downs
and Provisions
-84
-91
-7
€M data
Key point
Gissi, Change in Perimeter
Debt increase, interest rate
reduction,
“Moratoria fiscale” 96-99
Financial charges
-39
-59
-20
Derivatives/others
-5
-5
0
Associates and JV
and others
+12
+12
0
TdE, Edipower and
others
Others
0
-40
-40
“Moratoria fiscale”
(AEM and ASM 96-99)
EBT
201
168
-33
49
2008-2009 Q1 –From EBITDA to Net Income (2/2)
Q12008
restated
Q12009
Change
EBT
201
168
-33
TAXES
-66
-70
-4
Robin Tax; undeductible
items
IFRS 5
0
1
+1
Malpensa Energia
MINORITIES
-6
-7
-1
TdE and Plurigas
NET INCOME
129
92
-37
NET INCOME
ADJUSTED*
129
148 *
+19
€M data
Key point
* Adjusted for “Moratoria fiscale”
50
2009 Q1– Net Debt and Cash Flow
+133
€M data
-3,484
-62
+181
NFP
31/12/2008
-12
-3,351
Others
NFP
31/03/2009
+26
Capex and
Net profit
Change in
+D&A Assets/Liabilities Investment s
51
2009 Q1 Gross debt and interest rate structure
DEBT STRUCTURE
<31/03/2010
31/03/10-31/03/12
31/03/12-31/03/14
>31/03/2014
INTEREST RATE STRUCTURE
Hedged
Floating Rate
Fixed Rate
10%
10%
23%
23%
29%
12%
12%
29%
40%
40%
49%
Total debt: 3,505 €M
37%
>31/03/2014
31/12/12-31/12/14
31/12/10-31/12/12
<31/12/2010
Hedged
Floating Rate
Fix Rate
37%
49%
RATING
Average debt life: 4.94 YRS
Committed Credit Lines available: 1,105 €M
52
Scope of consolidation
Q1 2009
CONSOLIDATED
ON.. BASIS
INCOME
STATEMENT
Q1 2008 restated
NET RESULT
CONSOLIDATED
ON.. BASIS
INCOME
STATEMENT
NET RESULT
100%
100%
A2A subsidiaries
Line by line
100%
100%
A2A Coriance*
Line by line
100%
98.8%
-
-
-
ASPEM**
Line by line
90.0%
-
-
-
EON Produzione***
Malpensa Energia****
100%
IFRS 5
IFRS 5
Line by line
IFRS 5
IFRS 5
*acquired on 1 July 2008
**acquired on 15 January 2009
*** 20%
****49%
53

2008-2009 Q1 Results

Transcription

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