SIAM: State of the Indian automobile industry

October 2014
Seoul
State of the Indian Automobile
Industry
Latest Performance Review
SIAM
Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers
Performance & Growth
A
SIAM
Presentation
2
Domestic Sales (number of vehicles)
Passenger Vehicles
: 2.5 Mn
Commercial Vehicles
: 0.63 Mn
2 Wheelers
: 14.8 Mn
3 Wheelers
: 0.48 Mn
Industry Estimates
Employment (Direct + Indirect)
: 2 Mn+27 Mn
Contribution to manufacturing GDP : 47.3%
Investment from FY 09 - FY 14
A
SIAM
Presentation
: USD 13.5 Bn
Source: SIAM, IMACs
3
Segmentation: By Volume
Passenger Vehicles
(2,503,685)
14%
Segmentation: By Value
Commercial Vehicles
(632,738)
3%
3%
Three Wheelers
(479,634)
51%
28%
80%
19%
2%
Two Wheelers
(14,805,481)
A
SIAM
4
Presentation
Passenger Vehicles
Commercial Vehicles
Three Wheelers
Two Wheelers
Source: SIAM
SIAM
Fiat India
Volkswagen
Ashok Leyland Ltd
India Pvt Ltd
0.02
1.62
Skoda Auto India
0.58
Renault India
Automobiles, Motors
0.42
Toyota Kirloskar Motor
Tata Motors
5.84
5.36
Force
Hindustan Motor Finance
General Motors India
Corporation
2.28
0.06
0.11
Ford
India,
3.29
Hindustan Motors
0.01
Honda Cars India
7.04
1.68
Hyundai Motor India
Nissan Motor
16.21
India
2.06
Isuzu Motors India
0.01
Mahindra & Mahindra
Maruti Suzuki India
44.58
8.84
VECVs – Volvo
VECVs – Eicher
6.01
0.16
AMW Motors
0.56
Ashok Leyland
13.48
Force Motors
3.50
Isuzu Motors India
0.12
Mahindra & Mahindra
25.72
Tata Motors
47.40
SML Isuzu
2.04
Piaggio Vehicles
1.03
Alto
Sl.
No
Models
Sep
2014
(Sales
Nos)
1
Maruti Suzuki Alto
19,906
2
Maruti Suzuki Swift
17,265
3
Maruti Suzuki DZIRE
16,964
4
Maruti Suzuki Wagon R
15,641
5
Hyundai Elite i20
8,902
6
Mahindra Bolero
8,541
7
Hyundai Grand i10
7,285
8
Maruti Suzuki Omni
6,659
9
Hyundai Eon
6,489
10
Maruti Suzuki Celerio
6,382
Dzire
Swift
Wagon R
Elite i20
Grand i10
Bolero
Celerio
Omni
Eon
Category
A: Passenger Cars
Model
September 2014
Micro
Mini
Compact
Super Compact
Mid-Size
Executive
Premium
Tata Nano
Maruti Suzuki Alto
Maruti Suzuki Swift
Toyota Etios Sedan
Honda City
Toyota Corolla
Skoda Superb
UV1
UV2
UV3
UV4
UV5
Mahindra Bolero
Mahindra Scorpio
Force Trax
Toyota Fortuner
Toyota Land Cruiser
6,850
6,060
299
1,745
10
Maruti Suzuki Omni
Tata ACE Magic
6,659
1,566
B: Utility
Vehicles(UVs)
1,703
19,906
17,265
1,638
4,600
791
125
C: Vans
V1
V2
Items
Unit
2003-04
2013-14
Growth
‘000
6,811
18,422
2.7x
Passenger Vehicles
‘000
902
2,504
2.8x
Commercial Vehicles
‘000
260
633
2.4x
Two Wheelers
‘000
5,364
14,805
2.8x
Three Wheelers
‘000
284
480
1.7x
Domestic Sales Revenue (OEM)
US $ billion
15
40
2.7x
Vehicles Exports Revenue
US $ billion
1
8
7.2x
Share of GDP
%
4.5%
7.1%
1.6x
Total Volume (in numbers)
A
(1 USD @ Rs. 60)
SIAM
Presentation
9
Source: SIAM, IMACs
Data in units
Production
(January -December )
2012
2013
% Change
(January -December )
2012
2013
% Change
(January -December )
2012
2013
% Change
Passenger Cars (1)*
Commercial Vehicles (2)
Total Motor Vehicles (1)+(2)
3,296,240
878,473
4,174,713
3,138,988
741,950
3,880,938
Passenger Cars (1)*
Commercial Vehicles (2)
Total Motor Vehicles (1)+(2)
2,753,161
813,821
3,566,982
2,553,979
687,230
3,241,209
551,522
89,221
640,743
593,453
72,170
665,623
Domestic Sales
Data in units
Data in units
Exports
Passenger Cars (1)*
Commercial Vehicles (2)
Total Motor Vehicles (1)+(2)
Note: * BMW, Mercedes, Audi and JLR data not reported
-4.77
-15.54
-7.04
-7.23
-15.56
-9.13
7.60
-19.11
3.88
Production
(January -September)
Data in units
Passenger Cars (1)*
Commercial Vehicles (2)
Total Motor Vehicles (1)+(2)
2013
2,407,278
585,855
2,993,133
2014
2,388,674
517,323
2,905,997
% Change
-0.77
-11.70
-2.91
Data in units
Passenger Cars (1)*
Commercial Vehicles (2)
Total Motor Vehicles (1)+(2)
2013
1,927,176
543,251
2,470,427
2014
1,927,917
455,633
2,383,550
% Change
Data in units
Passenger Cars (1)*
Commercial Vehicles (2)
Total Motor Vehicles (1)+(2)
2013
452,001
53,399
505,400
2014
447,721
63,815
511,536
Domestic Sales
Exports
Note: * BMW, Mercedes, Audi and JLR data not reported
(January -September)
(January -September)
0.04
-16.13
-3.52
% Change
-0.95
19.51
1.21
Facing slowdown over the last 2-3 years
Domestic Sales (number of vehicles)
Vehicle Segment (‘000)
FY 02
FY 12
CAGR
FY 02-12
FY 14
CAGR
FY 12-14
Passenger Vehicles
686
2,629
14.4%
2,501
-2.5%
Commercial Vehicles
136
833
19.9%
633
-12.8%
Early signs of domestic demand recovery
Domestic Sales (number of vehicles)
Vehicle Segment (‘000)
A
FY 02
FY 12
CAGR
FY 02-12
FY 14
CAGR
FY 12-14
Growth
6m FY 15
Passenger Vehicles
686
2,629
14.4%
2,501
-2.5%
4.3%
Commercial Vehicles
136
833
19.9%
633
-12.8%
-10.1%
12
SIAM Presentation
Source: SIAM
F14
F15
Q1
4%
637
7%
615
1%
Q2
Passenger Vehicles-Trends
PVs=Cars + UVs + Vans- Trends
• 4% in H1 F15 over H1 F14
A
SIAM
Presentation
1,252
Passenger Vehicle Sales ‘000s
H1
F14
F15
-10%
141
152
-4%
-16%
Q1
CVs-Trends
• -10% in H1F15 over H1 F14
A
SIAM
Presentation
294
Commercial Vehicles‘000s
Q2
H1
Q2 Exports ‘000s
178
166
Q2 F14
Q2 F15
11%
-7%
23
20
PVs
Exports as a % of
Production in Q2
A
SIAM
Presentation
20%
CVs
13%
Source: SIAM Data
15
F15 Outlook
A
SIAM
Presentation
16
Sensex
Foreign financial investment (FIIs)
10000
30.0
24.2
25.0
20.5 21.1
26.6 27.2
25.9
25.4
22.4 22.4
20.0
15.0
10.0
9304
9000
8000
Net FII inflow, $ Million
Milliers
All time
high
7000
7 times high
6000
5000
4000
3422
3000
2000
5.0
1000
Presentation
Sep -14
(Till date)
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Monthly
SIAM
17
711
0
0.0
A
1258
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
April - August
Source: CMIE
SIAM
GDP recovery
Some respite in Inflation
12.0
5.2
4.5
A
4.6
4.4
4.4
4.7
4.6
4.6
10.0
4.0
CPI YoY, %
3.0
2.0
10.7
10.4
9.5
9.7
8.4
8.1
6.0
Presentation
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
0.0
Dec-12
0.0
Sep-12
2.0
Jun-12
4.0
1.0
SIAM
18
9.9
10.1
8.0
Jun-12
Growth YoY, %
5.0
10.2
Jun-14
5.7
Mar-14
6.0
Source: CMIE
SIAM
Current account deficit
6.49
160
6
4.95
3
2
1.65
114
122
118
127
0.87
60
20
Source: CMIE and NCAER
SIAM
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
0
Jan-13
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Presentation
80
Oct-12
1
100
40
1.2
Jun-12
120
103
3.49
0
SIAM
19
127 125
120
3.98
0.24
A
143
Jul-12
4
140
4.78
135
Apr-12
5
BCI Quarterly
Current account deficit % of GDP
7
Business confidence index

Some early signs of revival in demand. However business
environment continues to be challenging
◦ Economic growth – Seen improving but still to take root
◦ Inflation – still not under control
◦ Vehicle finance rates – Continues to be high
◦ Consumer Sentiment - Significantly Improved
◦ Product Offering - Number of new models launched

Key Concerns
◦ Commercial vehicle segment continues to be strained but improving
◦ High inflation
◦ Vehicle finance rates high
◦ FOREX rate fluctuation
◦ Higher Excise duty rates expected to be reinstated in January 2015
A
SIAM
Presentation
20
Need to watch economic growth trend, inflation, interest rates, fuel
prices and commodity prices.
Also, need to watch Government policy initiatives in terms of project
implementation, infrastructure development and revival in mining
activity.
Industry needs to grow at a pace much faster than in recent times to
get back to growth path.
A
SIAM
Presentation
21
A
SIAM
Presentation
22
• A key objective is to address India’s increasing crude oil deficit,
which poses a serious challenge to its fuel security
• Concerted efforts are required across a range of solutions to
meet India’s fuel security objective
• Alternate mobility solutions include xEVs such as HEV, PHEV,
ER-EV and BEV
• xEV and CNG adoption could help meet our objective of fuel
security through significant fuel savings
• Apart from regulations, cost of batteries is a key factor in xEV
demand, which is expected to decline substantially by 2020
A
SIAM
Presentation

To achieve the desirable outcomes stated in NEMMP 2020,
Government of India, will focus on four broad areas:
 Demand creation through:
 Incentives (cash subsidy) for various xEVs
 Mandates for some segments such as public transport vehicles
 On road vehicles through hybrid retrofitment
 Domestic manufacturing through:
 Linking incentives with localization content in a phased manner
 Various tax rebates such as excise duty, corporate tax
 Research, Development & Demonstration through:
 Creating Centre of Excellence for accelerated development and
tangible outcomes of research work at component level
 Pilot projects to test and assess the impact of xEVs and spread
awareness
 Infrastructure creation through PPP or private players for:
 Power infrastructure
 Charging infrastructure
A
SIAM
Presentation

The Government has set up a robust mechanism for disbursement
of incentives, for ensuring quality of products and for value
addition in the country.
a)
b)
c)
A
SIAM
Presentation
-
6~7 Million (YoY)
xEV
Sales by
2020
15 Million
xEV
Sales Till
2020
Decrease
in CO2
24 Mi
Ton
Potential
250,000~300,000
A
SIAM
Presentation
Jobs
Fuel
Savings
9500 Mi Liters






A
SIAM
Incentives to consumers based on Life Cycle Analysis (TCO Modeling) and
Projected Desirable Sales.
All segments (Inclusive) and technology types (Technology Neutral).
Prioritization of vehicle segments based on two broad objectives of
maximizing potential for fuel savings and potential for mass adoption.
Setting-up Qualifying Criteria focusing on Quality (Safety and Emissions),
Performance (Fuel Savings) & Value Addition (Make in India)
Setting-up an e-Enabled Incentive Delivery Mechanism to create efficient
and robust mechanism.
Fiscal support in terms of tax policies – import and excise duty rebate
aiming at promoting domestic manufacturing
PPP in R&D and Charging Infrastructure.
Presentation
SIAM
Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers
A
SIAM
Presentation
28