NTB Scenario Planning Workshop Report - ccap

Transcription

Climate Futures and Rural Livelihood
Adaptation Strategies in Nusa
Tenggara Barat Province, Indonesia
Dampak perubahan iklim terhadap penghidupan
masyarakat di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat, Indonesia
NTB Scenario Planning
Workshop Report
Sanur Paradise Plaza Hotel, Bali
31st May – 2nd June 2011
Enquiries should be addressed to:
Dr. James Butler
Environment and Development Team
Social and Economic Sciences Program and Climate Adaptation Flagship
CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences
GPO Box 2583
Brisbane
QLD 4001
Australia
Phone: +61 7 3833 5734
Mobile: +61 437030120
james.butler@csiro.au
Professor Yusuf Sutaryono
Dean, Faculty of Animal Sciences
University of Mataram
Jl. Majapahit No. 62
Mataram 83125
Nusa Tenggara Barat Province
Indonesia
Phone: +62 370626875
Mobile: +62 818369007
ysf_25@yahoo.com
Suggested citation: Butler, J.R.A., Handayani, T., Habibi, P., Skewes, T., Kisman, Putranta, M.
2011. NTB Scenario Planning Workshop Report, 31st May – 2nd June 2011. Climate Futures and
Rural Livelihood Adaptation Strategies in Nusa Tenggara Barat Province, Indonesia. AusAIDCSIRO Research for Development Alliance, University of Mataram, NTB Government. CSIRO
Climate Adaptation Flagship, Brisbane, and University of Mataram, Lombok.
Copyright and Disclaimer
© 2011 CSIRO To the extent permitted by law, all rights are reserved and no part of this
publication covered by copyright may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means
except with the written permission of CSIRO.
Important Disclaimer
CSIRO advises that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements
based on scientific research. The reader is advised and needs to be aware that such
information may be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance or
actions must therefore be made on that information without seeking prior expert professional,
scientific and technical advice. To the extent permitted by law, CSIRO (including its employees
and consultants) excludes all liability to any person for any consequences, including but not
limited to all losses, damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or
indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole) and any information or material
contained in it.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This workshop and report was made possible by the collaboration and planning of the
following members of the Tim Kolaboratif:
Indonesia
Australia
Prof. Yusuf Sutaryono (Project Leader, UNRAM) Dr. James Butler (Project Leader, CSIRO)
Imam Suharto (VECO Indonesia)
Dr. Sarah Park (CSIRO)
Dr. Anwar Fachry (UNRAM)
Dr. Dewi Kirono (CSIRO)
Dr. Wayan Suadnya (UNRAM)
Dr. Erin Bohensky (CSIRO)
Dr. Ketut Puspadi (BPTP)
Tim Skewes (CSIRO)
Dr. Kisman (UNRAM)
Dr. Craig Miller (CSIRO)
Adi Ripaldi (BMKG)
Dr. John McGregor (CSIRO)
Hanartani (UNRAM)
Dr. Jack Katzfey (CSIRO)
Sri Supartingsih (UNRAM)
Wayne Rochester (CSIRO)
Dr. Siti Latifah (UNRAM)
Ian McLeod (CSIRO)
Dr. Ahmad Suriadi (BPTP)
Nicole Murphy (CSIRO)
Dr. Gulam Abbas (BLHP)
Dr. Donna Hayes (CSIRO)
Tarningsih Handayani (UNRAM)
Dr. Vincent Lyne (CSIRO)
Putrawan Habibi (UNRAM)
Dr. Brian Long (CSIRO)
Dr. Dahlanudin (UNRAM)
Dr. Karnan (UNRAM)
Irwan Mahakam Lesmono Aji (UNRAM)
Lukita Cesaria Ibundani (UNRAM)
Mauriek Putranta (UNRAM)
Alan Smith
Dian Nur Ratri (BMKG and University of Melbourne)
The project and workshop planning was guided by the project Steering Committee:
•
Ir. Tajuddin Erfandy (Head BLHP and Chair NTB Climate Change Task Force)
•
Dr. Rosiadi Sayuti (Head BAPPEDA)
•
Dr. Kate Duggan (AusAID)
•
Prof. Yusuf Sutaryono (Project Leader, UNRAM)
•
Dr. James Butler (Project Leader, CSIRO)
Data compilation and translation for the report was provided by Dr. Kisman, Tarningsih
Handayani, Putrawan Habibi, Mauriek Putranta and Tim Skewes. We also thank the 34
participants who contributed their time and opinions to this 3-day workshop.
2
CONTENTS
Summary..................................................................................................................... 4
1.
Introduction ....................................................................................................... 7
1.1
1.2
1.3
2.
Activity 3 NTB scenario planning................................................................... 11
2.1
2.2
3.
Project background ................................................................................................... 7
NTB development and rural livelihoods .................................................................... 8
Research approach and activities .......................................................................... 10
Stakeholder analysis ............................................................................................... 11
Workshop process .................................................................................................. 13
Workshop results ............................................................................................ 17
3.1
3.2
Session 1: What are the drivers of change for rural livelihoods in NTB? ............... 17
Session 2: What are the desired and possible futures for NTB livelihoods? .......... 23
3.2.1
3.2.2
3.3
Session 3: What impact will the Business as Usual scenario have on human wellbeing? ..................................................................................................................... 30
3.3.1
3.3.2
3.4
Ecosystem goods and services typology ............................................................ 30
Impact modelling for 2030 ................................................................................... 31
Session 4: What is the adaptive capacity of NTB communities today? ................. 33
3.4.1
3.4.2
3.5
3.6
Desired future for NTB livelihoods ...................................................................... 23
Future scenarios for NTB livelihoods .................................................................. 23
Indicators of adaptive capacity ............................................................................ 33
Scoring indicators of adaptive capacity ............................................................... 33
Session 5: Which are the most vulnerable livelihoods in NTB? ............................. 36
Session 6: What are the priority adaptation strategies required to improve
livelihoods in NTB? ................................................................................................. 37
3.6.1
3.6.2
3.6.3
3.6.4
3.6.5
3.6.6
3.6.7
3.6.8
Examples of adaptation strategies ...................................................................... 37
Designing adaptation strategies for vulnerable typologies .................................. 37
Typology 7 Diverse cropping and coastal activity ............................................... 37
Typology 3 Rice and bandeng ponds.................................................................. 40
Typology 5 Rice and tobacco .............................................................................. 40
Typology 1 Fishing .............................................................................................. 45
Other typologies .................................................................................................. 45
Case studies and next steps ............................................................................... 45
4.
Workshop evaluation ...................................................................................... 49
5.
References....................................................................................................... 53
Appendix I: Workshop agenda ................................................................................ 55
Appendix II: Districts and rural sub-districts by typology..................................... 64
Appendix III: Climate and population projections for the 'Business as Usual’
scenario by typology ...................................................................................... 68
Appendix IV: 2030 impacts and adaptive capacity for typologies 2, 4, 6 ............. 69
SUMMARY
The islands of Eastern Indonesia have some of the highest levels of poverty and food insecurity
in the country. Livelihoods are primarily rural and dependent on ecosystem goods and services
provided by terrestrial and marine habitats, and are highly sensitive to climate change.
Currently no method exists to assess the vulnerability of livelihoods in these islands to climate
or other drivers of change such as population growth, or to design ‘no regrets’ adaptation
strategies which lead to benefits under any future scenarios. This project aims to meet this
need by developing an approach in the islands of Lombok and Sumbawa, Nusa Tenggara Barat
(NTB) Province. A research partnership has been established between the AusAID-CSIRO
Research for Development Alliance, University of Mataram (UNRAM), BMKG (Indonesian
Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Board), the Research Institute for Agricultural
Technology (BPTP) and the NTB Government’s Climate Change Task Force. In July 2010 - June
2013 the project aims to:
1. Develop and test a participatory research method which can identify vulnerable rural
livelihoods and design appropriate ‘no regrets’ adaptation strategies;
2. Deliver adaptation strategies for case studies of vulnerable livelihoods in NTB and
integrate them into development planning;
3. Build the capacity of NTB government, NGOs, research institutions and vulnerable
rural communities to adapt to future climate change and uncertainty.
The project uses participatory scenario planning workshops with stakeholders from the
national, provincial, district, sub-district and village levels. By combining stakeholders’
knowledge of livelihoods’ drivers of change, important ecosystem goods and services, and
communities’ adaptive capacity, the process is generating ‘no regrets’ adaptation strategies
for vulnerable rural livelihoods in NTB.
This report summarises the first scenario planning workshop held at the provincial level with
34 Indonesian and NTB Government stakeholders, NGOs and technical experts. A Tim
Kolaboratif of 18 scientists from UNRAM, CSIRO, BMKG, BPTP and the NTB Climate Change
Task Force contributed downscaled climate and population modelling and other scientific
information, which was integrated with stakeholders’ knowledge. The workshop was held on
31st May – 2nd June 2011 at the Sanur Paradise Plaza Hotel, Bali.
The workshop was structured into six sessions, and each addressed a specific question. The
results of each session were:
Session 1: What are the drivers of change for rural livelihoods in NTB? Working groups listed
50 current drivers of change. These were grouped into themes, and then participants voted on
the two most important themes. Development of human resources and climate change
received the most votes.
Session 2: What are the desired and possible futures for NTB livelihoods? Participants agreed
a desired future vision for NTB rural livelihoods in 2090 based on the achievement of adequate
income, health, food security, social cohesion and freedom of choice for a good life. A matrix
of four possible future scenarios was created from better or worse extremes of human
resources development and climate change. Participants created narratives and drew pictures
for each scenario. These ranged from the ‘Best Case’ Well-being Village (less extreme climate
change, improved human resources development), to intermediate Adaptive NTB and
4
Blooming Flower, to ‘Business as Usual’ Jungle Law (extreme climate change, poor human
resources development). Thresholds were identified for Jungle Law by 2030 when minimum
per capita water requirements are not maintained, and for Adaptive NTB by 2090 when sea
level rise reaches 1.3 m. Both will require the relocation of people from Lombok to Sumbawa.
Session 3: What impact will the Business as Usual scenario have on human well-being? An
ecosystem goods and services (EGS) typology and model were developed for NTB. This
projected the impacts of drivers of change on EGS and human-well-being in 2030 under the
‘Business as Usual’ Jungle Law scenario. The most impacted was Typology 3 (Rice and bandeng
ponds), followed by Typology 7 (Diverse cropping and coastal activity), Typology 4 (Diverse
agriculture and forest use) and Typology 5 (Rice and tobacco).
Session 4: What is the adaptive capacity of NTB communities today? Using the six capitals
framework (natural, social, human, physical, financial, political) participants developed 18
indicators of adaptive capacity for NTB communities. They scored the indicators for
communities in each typology to derive an average adaptive capacity index.
Session 5: Which are the most vulnerable livelihoods in NTB? Combining the EGS and human
well-being impacts for 2030 with the adaptive capacity index for each typology revealed that
Typology 7 (Diverse cropping and coastal activity) was the most vulnerable, followed by
Typology 3 (Rice and bandeng ponds), Typology 4 (Diverse agriculture and forest use) and
Typology 5 (Rice and tobacco). However, Typology 1 (Fishing) became the fourth most
vulnerable by 2090 due to climate change impacts.
Session 6: What are the priority adaptation strategies required to improve livelihoods in
NTB? Based on EGS and human well-being impacts and adaptive capacity for each typology,
participants designed adaptation strategies for livelihoods to steer them away from ‘Business
as Usual’ Jungle Law towards the NTB vision and the ‘Best Case’ Well-being Village scenario.
Participants selected four typologies for analysis: Typology 1, Typology 3, Typology 5 and
Typology 7. All strategies were targeted at specific local vulnerabilities, and were crosschecked with the other potential future scenarios (i.e. Adaptive NTB, Blooming Flower and
Well-being Village) to determine whether they would be mal-adaptive if these scenarios
eventuated. All were considered suitable for these scenarios and therefore ‘no regrets’
strategies. The following sub-districts were selected from these typologies as community case
studies:
o
o
o
Typology 1 Fishing: Sape (Bima District) and Jerowaru (East Lombok District)
Typology 5 Rice and tobacco: Janapria (Central Lombok District) and Terara (East
Lombok District)
Typology 7 Diverse cropping and coastal activity: Bayan and Pemanang (North
Lombok District)
A questionnaire survey carried out during the workshop demonstrated that participants found
the process useful, with 72% stating that the workshop had “increased my understanding of
climate change and how NTB can adapt”. Participants’ horizons were also extended, with more
thinking of “the future” as 20 or more years. The proportion believing that “NTB’s climate
adaptation policies are enabling NTB to be ready to cope with climate change” increased, and
the proportion strongly agreeing that “climate change poses a risk to me personally” declined.
Similar scenario planning workshops will be carried out for the four case studies. Participants’
adaptation strategies will then be integrated in further workshops, and compared with current
development policies and programs in each sub-district.
Id
7
3
4
5
1
2
6
Well-being impact (%)
2030
2090
-12.3
-16.2
-12.6
-16.0
-10.4
-12.4
-9.9
-13.2
-6.5
-9.7
-5.8
-6.3
-6.5
-7.0
Typology name
Diverse cropping and coastal activity
Rice and bandeng ponds
Diverse agriculture and forest use
Rice and tobacco
Fishing
Fishing and seaweed
Diverse livestock and cropping
A.C. Index
2.9
3.2
2.9
3.7
2.5
2.9
3.7
Vulnerability
2030
0.21
0.20
0.18
0.13
0.13
0.10
0.09
index
2090
0.46
0.46
0.43
0.36
0.40
0.29
0.18
The well-being impact, adaptive capacity (AC) and vulnerability index for each typology in 2030 and
2090. The map shows results for 2030, with darker colours reflecting greater vulnerability
2030
2011
2060
2090
Well-being
Village
Human
resources
development
6
NTB
LIVELIHOODS
VISION
5
1
+
Adaptive capacity
Adaptive NTB
DRIVERS OF
CHANGE
NTB
LIVELIHOODS
2
Blooming
Flower
4
Climate change
3
Impact on
human wellbeing
Jungle Law
Summary of the workshop process and results. Numbers refer to the workshop sessions
6
1.
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Project background
The islands of Eastern Indonesia have some of the highest levels of poverty and food insecurity
in the country. Livelihoods are primarily rural and dependent on ecosystem goods and services
provided by terrestrial and marine habitats, and are highly sensitive to climate change.
Currently no method exists to assess the vulnerability of livelihoods in these islands to climate
or other drivers of change such as population growth, or to design ‘no regrets’ adaptation
strategies which lead to benefits under any future scenarios. This project aims to meet this
need by developing an approach in the islands of Lombok and Sumbawa, Nusa Tenggara Barat
(NTB) Province. A research partnership has been established between the AusAID-CSIRO
Research for Development Alliance, University of Mataram (UNRAM), BMKG (Indonesian
Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Board), the Research Institute for Agricultural
Technology (BPTP) and the NTB Government’s Climate Change Task Force. In July 2010 - June
2013 the project aims to:
1. Develop and test a participatory research method which can identify vulnerable rural
livelihoods and design appropriate ‘no regrets’ adaptation strategies;
2. Deliver adaptation strategies for case studies of vulnerable livelihoods in NTB and
integrate them into development planning;
3. Build the capacity of NTB government, NGOs, research institutions and vulnerable
rural communities to adapt to future climate change and uncertainty.
Figure 1. Nusa Tenggara Barat (NTB) Province, Indonesia, and the islands of Lombok and
Sumbawa
1.2
NTB development and rural livelihoods
NTB is located in the island archipelago of south-eastern Indonesia, and consists of the islands
of Lombok (4,725 km2) and Sumbawa (15,448 km2). Both islands are dominated by the extinct
volcanoes of Mount Rinjani (Lombok) and Tambora (Sumbawa). Soils are largely rich and
volcanic, but average annual rainfall differs between the islands, influencing primary
productivity. In Lombok, average rainfall is 2,500 mm per year, and 1,200 mm in Sumbawa,
with most of this falling in the wet season of December-April. Average daily temperatures are
280C. NTB is affected by the El Nino Southern Oscillation, which can generate drought periods
or wetter than average seasons.
In 2011 NTB Province was divided into eight districts (kabupaten) and two urban municipalities
(Mataram and Bima). There are 106 rural sub-districts (kecamatan), and each sub-district is
divided into villages (desa).
The predominant religion is Islam (97% of the population), which became established in the
17th century. However, the process of Islamization differed between Lombok and Sumbawa. In
Lombok Islam was fused with the ruling Balinese Hinduism and ethnic Sasak animism, resulting
today in a mixture of Muslim and Balinese customs and institutions, and strong traditional
knowledge (awiq-awiq). In Sumbawa, Islam was more readily accepted by the indigenous
Samawa and Mbojo tribes.
NTB Province was formed in 1957 following Indonesian independence in 1945. Through the
process of decentralization following President Suharto’s fall in 1998 there has been a
transition to local autonomy and democracy and increasing efforts by NTB governors to
enhance social and economic development, with a focus on agriculture, aquaculture and
tourism. This is exemplified by the opening of Lombok International Airport by the President of
Indonesia in October 2011.
NTB had a population of 4.5 million in 2010 with an annual growth rate of 1.17%. 3.168 million
(70%) live on Lombok at a density of 671 per km2, and 1.331 million (30%) live on Sumbawa at
a density of 86 per km2. Female fertility and infant mortality rates are declining, and life
expectancy is increasing. The majority of the population (58%) live in rural areas, but there is
an increasing trend towards urbanisation. In 2010, 71,000 emigrated to work in the Middle
East and the Asia-Pacific as housemaids (women) and agricultural or construction labourers
(men), but this number is declining.
The NTB economy grew by 6.3% in 2010. In 2007 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was
dominated by gold mining (25%), which is focussed on West Sumbawa district, and agriculture
and fisheries (25%). Employment in 2008 was dominated by the agricultural sector (46%), but
this is declining slightly while employment in mining and services sectors is increasing. Poverty
levels have declined to 22% in 2010 from 30% in 2001. NTB’s Human Development Index in
2009 was 64.66, the second lowest of Indonesia’s 33 provinces, reflecting low levels of life
expectancy, literacy rates, schooling and income. Although maternal mortality, child
malnutrition and illiteracy rates are declining, rates of contraception use are also declining and
are lower than the national level in 2010 (51% versus 54%). Cases of HIV/AIDS, motor cycle
theft, violent theft, rape and homicides are escalating. Gender inequality remains evident in
spite of Gender Mainstreaming policies introduced since 2000. Although female literacy has
increased to 82% in 2008, in 2005-2008 the disparity between women and men remained
approximately -11%. Summaries of available trend data are given in Table 1. There are marked
8
differences between Lombok and Sumbawa in many of the demographic, economic and health
indicators, with the Lombok population at a lower level of development (Table 2).
Table 1. Trends in demographic, economic and health data for NTB (Fachry et al. 2011)
Indicator (unit)
Year
NTB
Years of
trend data
Population growth (% per annum)
2010
1.17
1971-2010
Fertility rate (births per female)
2010
2.4
1971-2010
Infant mortality rate (deaths per 1000 live births)
2010
49
1971-2010
Life expectancy (years)
2010
67
1971-2010
Urbanisation (% population)
2010
41.7
1971-2010
GDP (average % growth per annum)
2010
6.3
2005-2010
Poverty (% population)
2010
21.6
2001-2010
Underweight children (% under 5 year olds)
2008
21.7
2004-2008
Contraception use (% married couples)
2010
51.0
2006-2010
Female literacy (% female population)
2008
81.6
2005-2008
Female-male literacy disparity (%)
2009
-10.3
2005-2008
Crime (total cases)
2009
2,491
2007-2009
Human Development Index
2009
64.66
2001-2009
Trend
Table 2. Comparison between development indicators for Lombok and Sumbawa (Fachry et al.
2011)
Indicator (unit)
Year
Lombok
Sumbawa
NTB
Poorest district
Human Development Index
2009
62.79
65.93
64.66
North Lombok (58.40)
Poverty (% population)
2008
21.1
20.5
22.8
West Lombok (24.0%)
Male morbidity (% males)
2006
23.8
19.6
23.3
Central Lombok
(29.3%)
Female morbidity (% females)
2006
24.1
19.0
23.8
Central Lombok
(29.6%)
No electricity (% households)
2010
12.2
5.0
10.7
North Lombok (24.1%)
Unprotected water (%)
2010
6.0
4.0
6.0
West Lombok (8.7%)
No toilet (% households)
2010
43.8
36.8
44.3
North Lombok (55.7%)
Female illiteracy (%)
2009
24.5
13.5
22.9
N/A
1.3
Research approach and activities
Integrating the challenges of climate change with broader livelihoods and social development
goals in developing countries is a novel area of research and practice. This project aims to
contribute to this field by applying and integrating a suite of systems science concepts and
methods, both climate and development-orientated, to the nexus between climate
adaptation, poverty alleviation and policy design.
There are many stakeholders from different sectors involved in the planning and improvement
of rural livelihoods, including rural communities themselves. They may have similar aims, but
different roles and perceptions of how to achieve rural development. To be effective, these
stakeholders’ efforts need to be coordinated, and their knowledge combined to tackle
livelihood challenges. This project applies participatory scenario planning with government,
NGO and community stakeholders to describe the current and potential future characteristics
of rural livelihoods. Workshops held at the provincial and sub-district level identify adaptation
strategies which stakeholders believe will reduce any perceived negative impacts of change on
human well-being, reducing livelihoods’ vulnerability and building communities’ adaptive
capacity for future change.
Subsequent workshops integrate the adaptation strategies identified by all stakeholders,
allowing comparison between their perspectives, and an assessment of whether the strategies
have been introduced by policies and programs. If not, the barriers to their implementation
are identified. This process creates ‘adaptive co-management’, whereby new knowledge,
partnerships and adaptive capacity are generated amongst all stakeholders to improve rural
livelihoods.
In July 2010 – June 2013 the project will carry out a series of activities, linked by outputs
(Figure 2). This report describes Activity 3, NTB scenario planning, which investigates NTB
provincial stakeholders’ perceptions of rural communities’ challenges today and in the future,
and adaptation strategies required to improve their livelihoods.
10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
Activity 1: Climate projection downscaling
1. 14 km projections
Activity 2: Ecosystem goods and services (EGS) modelling and typology
2. EGS impact model
2. EGS impact model
3. EGS typology
6. Adaptation strategies
Activity 3: NTB scenario planning
5. Vulnerable
livelihoods
Activity 4: Community scenario planning
6. Adaptation strategies
4. Adaptive capacity
assessment
4. Adaptive capacity
assessment
Activity 5: Integration and policy evaluation
7. Adaptation strategy
research priorities
Activity 6: Adaptation strategy research
Activity 7: Adaptive capacity and gender assessments
Activity 8: Policy analysis
Activity 9: Adaptive co-management evaluation
Figure 2. Timelines for project activities and outputs (in italics) linking activities in July 2010 – June
2013. Activity 3 (NTB scenario planning) is highlighted.
2.
2.1
ACTIVITY 3 NTB SCENARIO PLANNING
Stakeholder analysis
A key step in preparing for the Activity 3 workshop was to undertake a stakeholder analysis
(e.g. Mitchell et al. 1997) of formal institutions involved in climate change, rural development
and natural resource management in NTB. This exercise identified 55 relevant institutions,
including national and NTB provincial government departments, NGOs, international donor
agencies and research organisations. Using the following indicators each institution was scored
on a scale of 0-5 by Indonesian members of the Tim Kolaboratif:
1. Power of the stakeholder to govern and make decisions;
2. Legitimacy of the stakeholder as viewed by other stakeholders;
3. Urgency that the stakeholder claims immediate involvement.
The 40 stakeholders with the highest total indicator scores were selected, and key
representatives from each were then identified and invited to the workshop. Thirty-four
attended, including 15 of the 28 members of the NTB Climate Change Task Force (Table 3).
Twenty-seven were men, and seven were women.
Table 3. Workshop participants, institutions and the total stakeholder analysis score (maximum 15).
Membership of the NTB Climate Change Task Force is indicated by *.
No.
1
Representative
Samsudin, St
Esnawan Budi Santoso
Institution
Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Daerah NTB*
NTB Regional Planning Agency (BAPPEDA)
Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Daerah NTB*
NTB Regional Planning Agency (BAPPEDA)
Badan Lingkungan Hidup dan Penelitian NTB*
NTB Environmental and Research Agency (BLHP)
Badan Lingkungan Hidup dan Penelitian NTB*
Dinas Kehutanan NTB*
NTB Forestry Department
Dinas Kehutanan NTB*
NTB Forestry Department
Dinas Kelautan dan Perikanan NTB*
NTB Fishery and Maritime Affairs Department
BPDAS Dodokan Moyosari*
Dodokan Moyosari Water Catchment Management Office
KLH*
National Ministry of Environment
Dinas Pekerjaan Umum NTB*
NTB Public Works Department
Dinas Pekerjaan Umum NTB*
NTB Public Works Department
BMKG* National Meteorological, Climatological and
Geophysical Board
Dinas Pertambangan dan Energi NTB*
NTB Mining and Energy Department
Balai Pengkajian Teknologi Pertanian NTB
NTB Agricultural Technology Assessment Agency (BPTP)
Dinas Pertanian TPH NTB
NTB Agriculture Food and Horticultural Crops Department
Pusat Penelitian Lingkungan Hidup UNRAM
UNRAM Environmental Research Centre
Pusat Penelitian Sumberdaya dan Agroklimat UNRAM
UNRAM Water Resource and Agroclimate Research Centre
Australian-Indonesian Partnership for Development
2
Baiq Mandri Sri Apriatni
3
Ir. Sunardi Hardjo, M.SI
4
Yusandana, St
5
Ir. Basuki Winantu, M.Si
6
Eko Dwi Sukmanto
7
Sasi Rustandi
8
Ir. Edi Setyawan
9
Koko Wijanarko
10
Ir. Gede Suardiari, MT
11
Ir. H. Swahip, MT
12
Wakodim, SP
13
Kun Dwi Santoso, BE
14
15
Dr. Ir. Dwi Praptomo
Sudjatmiko, MS
Ir. Lalu Suwarjaya
16
Ir. M. Yusuf, M.SI
17
Muhammad Husni Idris
18
13
19
Kun Praseno M.Mar.Stud
USAID Indonesian Marine and Climate Support Program
13
20
Aloysius Suratin
OXFAM
13
21
Drh. Nengah Dwiana
12
22
Ir. Siti Hajar
23
Ridha Ahyana, S.IP
Dinas Peternakan dan Kesehatan Hewan NTB*
NTB Livestock and Animal Health Department
Badan Ketahanan Pangan NTB*
NTB Food Security Agency
Badan Penanggulangan Bencana Daerah NTB*
NTB Regional Disaster Management Agency
12
Score
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
13
13
13
13
12
12
Table 3 continued. Workshop participants, institutions and the total stakeholder analysis score
(maximum 15). Membership of the NTB Climate Change Task Force is indicated by *.
No.
23
Representative
Ridha Ahyana, S.IP
24
Dwi Sudarsono, SH
25
26
Andi Chairil Ichsan, S.Hut,
M.SI
Fifi Luthfidah
27
Ir. Novia Rosalita, SP-1
28
30
Bayu Priyambodo, S.PI,
M,SI
I Made Suadnya, SKM,
M.Kes
Dr. Nunung Triningsih, MM
31
Dr. I Komang Wariga, MM
32
Bambang Istiyanto
33
Ir. Gembong Suparnadi,
MM
Ir. Ni Nyoman Retty
Wimartini, MM
29
34
2.2
Institution
Badan Penanggulangan Bencana Daerah NTB*
NTB Regional Disaster Management Agency
Samanta NGO*
Score
12
Transform NGO*
12
Konsepsi NGO
12
BWS Nusa Tenggara
Nusa Tenggara River Basin Office
Balai Budidaya Laut (Sekotong)
Sekotong Marineculture Office
Dinas Kesehatan NTB
NTB Health Department
Dinas Kebudayaan dan Pariwisata NTB
NTB Cultural and Tourism Department
Biro ADM Kerjasama dan SDA SETDA NTB
Cooperation Bureau of NTB Regional Secretary
Dishubkominfo
NTB Transportation, Communication and Information
Department
Biro ADM Perekonomian SETDA NTB
NTB Economic Administration Bureau Regional Secretary
Dinas Perkebunan NTB
NTB Plantation Department
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
Workshop process
The workshop was held over 3 days on 31st May, 1st and 2nd June 2011 at the Sanur Paradise
Plaza Hotel, Bali. Workshop facilitation was led by Imam Suharto (VECO Indonesia), supported
by Indonesian members of the Tim Kolaboratif (Table 4). All discussion was held in Bahasa
Indonesia, but presentations by CSIRO scientists were given in English with Bahasa slides.
Posters summarising presentations were translated into Bahasa and displayed around the
meeting room throughout the workshop.
The objectives of the workshop were:
1. Identify the most vulnerable livelihoods in NTB
2. Identify priority adaptation strategies for these livelihoods
3. Identify community case studies
The workshop was officially opened by the project Steering Committee, led by Dr. Rosiadi
Sayuti (Head of BAPPEDA) and Ir. Tajuddin Erfandy (Head of BLHP and Chair NTB Climate
Change Task Force). Prof. Yusuf Sutaryono then introduced the project and workshop process,
and asked the participants for their verbal consent to apply and publish the materials and
results of the workshop. All participants agreed. Key terms and concepts were explained and
discussed with the participants to ensure a common understanding (Table 5).
Table 4. Members of the Tim Kolaboratif who participated and facilitated the workshop
Name and Faculty
Prof. Yusuf Akhyar Sutaryono, PhD
Dean, Faculty of Animal Science
Dr. Imam Suharto, Facilitator
Institution
University of Mataram (UNRAM)
VECO Indonesia
Dr. Ketut Puspadi
Research Institute for Agricultural Technology (BPTP)
Dr. Wayan Suadnya
Research Centre for Rural Development, Faculty
or Agriculture
Dr. Karnan
Faculty of Teaching and Education Science
Dr. Dahlanuddin
Faculty of Animal Science
Dr. Kisman
Faculty of Agriculture
Ir. Hanartani, SU
Women’s Study Centre, Faculty of Animal Science
Ir. Anwar Fachry, MSc
Faculty of Economics
Dr. Gulam Abbas, MSI
Dr. Ahmad Suriadi
Research Institute for Agricultural Technology (BPTP)
Adi Ripaldi SP.MAHG
National Meteorological, Climatological and
Geophysical Board (BMKG)
Irwan Mahakam Lesmono Aji S.HUT, MSCF
Faculty of Forest Sciences
Tarningsih Handayani
Research Centre for Development of Tropical
Dryland Agriculture
Putrawan Habibi
Research Centre for Development of Tropical
Dryland Agriculture
Mauriek Putranta
Lukita Cesaria Ibundani
Alan Smith
AusAID
Dr. James Butler
Dr. Erin Bohensky
Dr. Sarah Park
Tim Skewes
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
Dr. Dewi Kirono
Dr. Brian Long
14
Table 5. Terms and definitions used in the workshop
Term
Livelihoods
Human well-being
Definition
The capabilities, assets, (including both material and
social resources) and activities required for a means of
living
The basic needs of people to live a healthy life: income,
food security, health, social cohesion, freedom of choice
Driver of change
Any natural or human-induced factor that directly or
indirectly causes a change in the system of interest
Ecosystem goods and
services
The benefits that people derive from healthy
functioning ecosystems
Threshold
A tipping point where sudden change occurs
Adaptive capacity
The ability of people and ecosystems to adjust to actual
or expected stresses, or to cope with the consequences
The degree that livelihoods will be impacted by change,
mediated by their adaptive capacity
Adjustment in ecological, social or economic systems in
response to actual or expected change and their effects
or impacts
Strategies which yield benefits under any future
conditions of change
Strategies which result in livelihoods becoming more
vulnerable to change
Vulnerability
Adaptation strategies
‘No regrets’ strategies
Mal-adaptation
Reference
Ellis 2000
Millennium
Ecosystem
Assessment
2005
Millennium
Ecosystem
Assessment
2005
Millennium
Ecosystem
Assessment
2005
Walker et al.
2005
IPCC 2007
IPCC 2007
Smit and
Wandel 2006
Hallegatte 2009
Hallegatte 2009
The workshop process was explained to the participants using Figure 3. Six steps are taken:
1. The drivers of change for livelihoods today are identified.
2. The desired future vision for livelihoods in 2090 is agreed in terms of human wellbeing. Then, based on plausible variations in the drivers of change, four future
scenarios are created and compared to the desired vision.
3. The impacts on human well-being are modelled for 2030 for the ‘Business as Usual’
scenario. 2030 is investigated because impacts of drivers are more predictable in the
short-term than in the long-term, and human responses are less likely to have taken
great effect.
4. The adaptive capacity of communities to cope with the ‘Business as Usual’ scenario is
assessed.
5. Vulnerable livelihoods are identified by combining the projected impacts with
communities’ current adaptive capacity: the most vulnerable are those with the
highest impacts and the lowest adaptive capacity.
6. Based on their specific vulnerability, appropriate adaptation strategies are designed.
These are compared against the scenarios identified in Step 2 to check whether they
would be compatible or ‘mal-adaptive’ for any other futures that could eventuate. In
this way ‘no regrets’ strategies are agreed which could steer livelihoods’ development
pathways towards the NTB vision and ‘Best Case’ scenario.
2030
2011
2060
2090
Scenario
(Best Case)
6
NTB
LIVELIHOODS
VISION
5
1
DRIVERS OF
CHANGE
+
Adaptive capacity
Scenario
NTB
LIVELIHOODS
2
4
Scenario
3
Impact on
human wellbeing
Scenario
(Business as
Usual)
Figure 3. Diagram of the workshop process. Numbers refer to the workshop steps and sessions
To follow this process, the workshop was structured into six sessions, and each addressed a
specific question (Figure 4; Appendix I). The structure was designed to integrate scientific
information from other project activities (see Figure 2) with stakeholders’ knowledge to
generate shared knowledge. An evaluation exercise was also carried out at the beginning and
end of the workshop to assess how participants’ perceptions had changed.
16
Scientific knowledge
Shared knowledge
Stakeholder knowledge
Activity 9: Pre-workshop evaluation
Activity 1: Climate projections
Socio-economic and population
trends
Session 1: What are drivers of change
for rural livelihoods in NTB?
Perceptions of drivers of
change
Session 2: What are the desired and
possible futures for NTB livelihoods?
Future scenarios
Session 3: What impact will the Business
as Usual scenario have on human wellbeing?
Valuing ecosystem services for
human well-being
Activity 7: Adaptive capacity
and capitals indicators
Session 4: What is the adaptive capacity
of NTB communities today?
Adaptive capacity indicator
scoring
Activity 2: Ecosystem goods
and services impacts
Session 5: Which are the most
vulnerable livelihoods in NTB?
Most vulnerable livelihoods
Adaptation strategy examples
Session 6: What are the priority
adaptation strategies required to
improve livelihoods in NTB?
Lombok Vulnerability
Assessment
and services model
and services typology
Activity 9: Post-workshop evaluation
Figure 4. Workshop structure and the role of outputs from other activities (see Figure 2)
3.
WORKSHOP RESULTS
3.1 Session 1: What are the drivers of change for rural
livelihoods in NTB?
Session 1 began with Tim Kolaboratif members presenting information on the current and
projected trends in potential drivers of change for rural livelihoods, including global issues (e.g.
financial crises, technology, disease epidemics), NTB’s economy, population growth and
health, cultural trends and gender issues, NTB climate patterns, and downscaled climate
change projections. This included projections of population growth based on the 2010 national
census, which showed that NTB’s population could increase from 4.5 million in 2010 to 6.5
million in 2050 (Figure 5). Climate change and rainfall projections downscaled to 14 km from
the SRES A2 ‘high’ emissions scenario (Figure 6, 7) using the CSIRO Conformal Cubic
Atmospheric Model (McGregor and Dix 2008, Kirono et al. 2010), and inundation risk from sea
level rise applied from the Lombok Vulnerability Assessment (KLH 2009; Figure 8) were also
presented.
Following these presentations, workshop participants were divided into four groups to discuss
their perceptions of the current drivers of change for rural livelihoods in NTB. Each group
wrote down their selected drivers on sticky note paper, and placed a total of 50 on a large
whiteboard (Table 6). Through discussion these were clustered into themes. After clustering,
each participant was given two votes and asked to select the two most important drivers of
change for livelihoods, using stickers. The votes were then totalled to identify the two most
important themes of drivers (Figure 9).
7.0
NTB
6.5
6.0
Population (million)
5.5
5.0
Lombok
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
Sumbawa
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
Figure 5. Recorded (solid line) population growth in Sumbawa, Lombok and NTB in 1971-2010, and
projected population growth (dashed line) to 2050 (Source: Anwar Fachry, UNRAM)
300
Current average
Rainfall (mm)
250
2030 projection range
200
150
Tobacco
100
Rice
Mixed crops/fallow
Mixed crops
50
Okt
Sep
Agu
Jul
Jun
Mei
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Des
Nov
0
Figure 6. Current average monthly rainfall for Ampenan, West Lombok, and the range of projections
for rainfall in 2030 under the SRES A2 emissions scenario, relative to rice and tobacco crop timing
(Source: CSIRO and BMKG)
18
%
Jan
Jul
Apr
Oct
Figure 7. Best estimations (median of six simulations) of the projected changes in total monthly rainfall by 2030, as a percentage of 1970s climatology for January, April,
July and October 2030 in NTB downscaled to 14 km. Climate simulations are based on the SRES A2 emissions scenario (Source: CSIRO)
Figure 8. Inundation risk from 1990 sea levels for coastal areas of NTB under different sea level rise projections, derived from the Lombok Vulnerability
Assessment (KLH 2009)
20
Hanartani (UNRAM) presenting information on cultural change and gender issues (D. Kirono)
A participant working group discussing drivers of change for NTB livelihoods (D. Kirono)
Table 6. Current drivers of change for NTB rural livelihoods identified by the four working groups
Working group name
1. Humans
2.
Animals
3.
Leaves
4.
Flowers
Drivers of change
Cultural change
Industrial growth
Human resources
Goverment policy
Population growth
Science and technology development
Natural resource management
Natural disasters
Land use change
Transparent and good governance
Changes in social values
Science and technology development
Political change (decentralisation)
Population pressure
Weakness of law enforcement
Poverty and income disparity
Degradation of natural resources
Climate change
Poverty
Education
Basic infrastructure
Law enforcement
Population growth
Industry
Population health
Land use change
Pollution and environmental degradation
Increasing frequency of extreme climate events
Climate change
Declining river flows
Population growth
Illegal logging
Water resources
Availability of financial capital
Availability of labour force
Land conversion from agriculture to residential
Market availability for products
Science and technology
Seasonal shifts in rainfall
Progress in human development
Fertilizer availability
Climate change
Natural disasters
Limited availability of crop varieties
Human resources
Post-harvest management of produce
Problems with pest and disease management
Human behavioural change
Rainfall change
More variable and destructive winds
22
Figure 9. Drivers of change clustered into themes. Human resource development (17 votes) and
climate (11 votes) were identified as the two most important themes
3.2 Session 2: What are the desired and possible futures for
NTB livelihoods?
3.2.1 Desired future for NTB livelihoods
Session 2 began with a discussion to develop a collective statement about the desired future
vision for NTB rural livelihoods in 2090, described in terms of human well-being (Table 7).
Table 7. The desired future vision for NTB rural livelihoods in 2090
Indicators of human well-being
Income
Health
Food security
Social cohesion
Freedom of choice
Desired future vision
Achieving community income per capita that can meet their basic
needs, housing, health, education and ability to save money.
Achievement of a healthier NTB society through continuous
improvement of health services
Fulfilment of the availability, distribution and consumption of food
for both quantity and quality.
Achievement of communities that have the following
characteristics: mutual cooperation, tolerance and respect for
the diversity of society.
Achievement of NTB society which has the freedom to choose
civilized livelihoods (political systems, beliefs, social, cultural and
defence).
3.2.2 Future scenarios for NTB livelihoods
Using the two most important themes of drivers from Session 1 (human resources
development and climate change), a matrix was formed (Figure 10). This created four future
scenarios for livelihoods, which combined better or worse levels of the drivers. Workshop
participants were divided into four working groups, one for each scenario. They developed a
narrative of NTB rural livelihoods in 2090 for their scenario, drew a picture and identified any
potential thresholds of change, plus actions required to manage and improve livelihoods in the
scenario.
Climate change (extreme)
+1.20C by 2090
-19% rainfall p.a. by 2090
Declining wet season rainfall
Increased drought-risk area
1.3 m sea level rise by 2090
Severe wind and storms
4
1
Poor human resources
development
Improved human
resources development
Population growth uncontrolled
7 million people 2050
Corrupt government
Community un-empowered
Little education investment
Little health investment
Population growth controlled
5 million people 2050
Transparent government
Community empowerment
Improved education investment
Improved health investment
3
2
Climate change (less extreme)
+0.30C by 2090
+2.7% rainfall p.a. by 2090
No change wet season rainfall
No change drought-risk area
0.23 cm sea level rise by 2090
Less severe wind and storms
Figure 10. The matrix of four future NTB scenarios created by combining better or worse levels of
the two most important driver themes, human resource development and climate change
A representative of each working group presented their scenario with the following narratives:
Scenario 1: Adaptive NTB
This scenario describes NTB communities that are ready to adapt to the impacts that climate
change is having on their livelihoods. It is a scenario marked by pressure for immediate action
on climate change impacts which leads community and government to rapidly deploy a variety
of technologies to quickly find solutions to climate change impacts. Rapid economic growth,
balanced population growth and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies is a
feature of this scenario. Indicators of well-being will improve substantially in terms of per
capita income, education and environmental awareness, cultural and social interactions and
social cohesion (Table 8). Thresholds for this scenario will be passed when sea level rise
reaches 1.3 m in 2090, requiring the translocation of people to Sumbawa Island, which is safer
and less-densely populated than Lombok. Other actions required will be:
o
o
Building new dams (10 m high) to cope with extreme rainfall events
Adapting cropping patterns
24
o
o
o
o
o
Cultivating plants that can withstand extreme rain water and prevent erosion
Relocation of people living in disaster areas
Implementing alternative livelihood systems
Development of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies
Disaster risk management
Table 8. Trends in indicators of human well-being under Scenario 1 Adaptive NTB
Indicators of
well-being
Income
Health
Food
security
Social
cohesion
Freedom of
choice
2030
2060
2090
The gradual fulfilment
of basic and secondary
needs
Adequate provision of
health facilities and
services
Food and nutrition
security
Maintaining social
cohesion
Open access
Fulfilment of primary,
secondary and tertiary
needs
Quality of infrastructure and
increased health care is
ensured (free service)
Food and nutrition security
Achievement of desired
NTB income per capita
Strengthening social
cohesion
Guarantees on the right of
access
healthy NTB society
healthy NTB society
High collective action
Independent NTB society
Scenario 2: Well-being Village
This scenario is an optimistic vision of the future of NTB, in which economic, social and political
reforms create a better life (Figure 11). The scenario describes a balanced population growth
and high level of education and health indicated by substantial increases in well-being
indicators (Table 11). It is a scenario marked by expansion of economic growth and prosperity,
resulting in an increased focus on social and environmental issues. The emphasis of action is
on regional solutions to the economy and infrastructure, and including improved social equity
but without the need for adaptation to extreme climate change.
Table 11. Trends in indicators of human well-being under Scenario 2 Well-being Village
Indicators of
well-being
Income
Health
Food
security
Social
cohesion
Freedom of
choice
2030
2060
2090
Sufficient income per
capita
The availability of
adequate
health services and
community health
Availability, access
and utilization is in a
satisfactory state
Mutual cooperation,
tolerance and diversity is
in favourable condition
Guaranteed jobs,
ideological, political,
economic and social
security achieved.
Satisfactory income per
capita
The availability of optimal
health services and
community health status is
in good condition
Availability, access and
utilization in a good
condition
Social cohesion is
maintained
Desired community wellbeing
The availability of optimal
health services and
community health status
Democratic conditions
Desired democratic
conditions achieved
Desired community wellbeing
Desired harmonious life
achieved
Figure 11
11. Participants’ vision of Scenario 2 Well-being Village
26
Scenario 3: Blooming Flower
The main issues for this scenario is not climate change impacts on peoples’ livelihoods, but the
low level of wealth which is greatly affected by low human resources development (high
population growth, low levels of education and health) (Table 12). Actions will emphasise
building human capital (e.g. education and gender activities), increased infrastructure and
social cohesion with a substantial increase in the level of per capita income (which is still lower
than in other scenarios), community health levels and food security. It is a scenario where no
threshold is reached because it is assumed that there are only intermediate levels of economic
development and less rapid development of technology than in other scenarios.
Table 12. Trends in indicators of human well-being under Scenario 3 Blooming Flower
Indicators of
well-being
Income
2030
2060
2090
Income per capita
increased 20%
Income per capita increased
50%
Health
The availability of health
services in the village and
community health in good
condition (20%)
services in rural areas and
community health is in
satisfactory state (50%)
Food
security
Social
cohesion
Fulfilment of food needs
(20%)
Realization of social
cohesion by 20%
(50%)
cohesion by 50%
income per capita
increased 100% and
ability to save money
services in rural (in
optimal condition) and
community health is in a
satisfactory state (100%)
(100%)
cohesion by 100%
Freedom of
choice
The realization of
freedom of choice of
livelihoods (20%)
The realization of freedom
of choice of livelihoods
(50%)
The realization of
freedom of choice of
livelihoods (100%)
Scenario 4: Jungle Law
In this scenario the world is run as business as usual, with extreme climate change and poor
human resources development (Figure 12). There is a slow pace of innovation, protected
global markets and non-environmental development. It focuses on the potential of poorly
managed social and environmental degradation problems, and a growing gap between rich
and poor. Materialism and consumerism are prevalent. There could be increasing power of
large bureaucracies and corporations. Millions of peoples’ lives will be in poverty and
deprivation. There is widespread social instability, rising conflict and the possibility of violence
and chaos. It is a scenario of high population growth with low levels of education and health.
Indicators of well-being decrease from 2030 to 2090 as the situation gets worse, but social
cohesion may improve as people depend on each other more (Table 13). It is assumed that
there is a water supply threshold of 4 billion m3 per annum on Lombok. Under this scenario
population growth will result in the minimum water availability of 1,000 m3 per capita per
annum being passed by 2030 (based on World Health Organisation Water Availability Index).
This will lead to the relocation of people from Lombok to Sumbawa.
Table 13. Trends in indicators of human well-being under Scenario 4 Jungle Law
Indicators of wellbeing
Income
Health
Food security
Social cohesion
Freedom of choice
2030
2060
2090
-1
-4
-1
+1
-1
-2
-5
-2
+2
-2
-3
-6
-3
+3
-3
Income
Climate
change
Health
Natural
resource
degradation
Health
Rural human
resources
Productivity
Food
production
Social
cohesion
Poverty
Freedom of
choice
Figure 12. Participants’ vision of Scenario 4 Jungle Law
28
Dr. Gulam Abbas (BLHP) presenting the Well-being Village scenario (D. Kirono)
These scenarios for 2090 provided a range of outcomes for NTB rural livelihoods. The Wellbeing Village scenario is similar to the desired vision, which results from less extreme climate
change and improved human resources development, including control of population growth.
Jungle Law represents the outcome from ‘Business as Usual’, with extreme climate change and
poor human resources development. Blooming Flower and Adaptive NTB are intermediate
scenarios (Figure 13).
2011
2030
2060
2090
Well-being
Village
Human
resources
development
NTB
LIVELIHOODS
VISION
1
DRIVERS OF
CHANGE
+
Adaptive NTB
NTB
LIVELIHOODS
2
Blooming
Flower
Climate change
Jungle Law
Figure 13. Summary of workshop process and results from Sessions 1 and 2 (numbered)
3.3 Session 3: What impact will the Business as Usual
scenario have on human well-being?
This session focussed on exploring the potential impacts of the ‘Business as Usual’ Jungle Law
scenario on human well-being in NTB. This was possible because the downscaled climate
change projections were based on the SRES A2 emissions scenario, which assumes that global
carbon emissions will continue at current high rates. Impacts were investigated for 2030
because climate and human population projections are likely to be more realistic in the shortterm, and any human responses are less likely to have taken effect.
3.3.1 Ecosystem goods and services typology
Projections were based on assessing the impacts of drivers on ecosystem goods and services
(EGS) which support rural livelihoods and human well-being. Because there is such diversity in
the EGS that people rely on in Lombok and Sumbawa, a typology was required to simplify the
analysis. In 2010 there were 105 rural sub-districts in NTB. Overall, 84 EGS were identified
from nine habitats (Figure 14). The ‘production’ of EGS (i.e. the relative volume produced or
exploited) was estimated from secondary BPS and PODES data, and surveys of communities
where no data was available (Suadnya et al. 2010). From the mix of EGS and their production
levels a statistical analysis revealed seven types. All except Typology 7 occurred in Lombok and
Sumbawa (Figure 15). Appendix II lists the kecamatan within each typology.
Habitat/EGS
1. Forest
1. Timber
2. Coffee
3. Cacao
4. Banana
5. Durian
6. Candle nut
7. Ecotourism
8. Honey bee
9. Mango
10. Cashew nut
11. Rattan, bamboo
12. Palm sugar
13. Tamarind
14. Wild life hunting
15. Coconut
2. Wetland
1. Rice production
2. Cattle
3. Maize
4. Soya bean
5. Chicken
6. Goat
7. Peanut
8. Mung bean
9. Vegetables
10. Buffalo
11. Cassava
12. Tobacco
13. Onion
14. Rambutan
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
Bandeng pond
Sweet potato
Prawn pond
Salt pond
Red rice
3. Dryland
Sand mining
Avodado
Pumic mining
Bandeng pond
Strawberry
4. Coastal
1. Cattle
2. Goat
3. Maize
4. Coconut
5. Cashew
6. Buffalo
7. Cassava
8. Banana
9. Chicken
10. Soya bean
11. Peanut
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
Padi gogo production
Mango
Tamarind
Jatropha
Mung bean
Coffee
Onion
Tobacco
Vegetables
Cacao
Durian
Salt pond
Garlic
Custard apple
Pineapple
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Ecotourism
Mangrove for timber
Mangrove for crab fishery
Salt pond
Bandeng pond
Prawn pond
5. Coral Reef
1. Ecotourism
2. Fishery
3. Building material
6. Inshore marine
1.
2.
3.
4.
Fishing
Seaweed
Pearl farm
Brown algae (Sargassum)
7. Offshore marine
1. Fishing
8. River, spring water
1. Agriculture (Irrigation)
2. Drinking water
3. Ecotourism
9. Ground water
1. Drinking water
2. Agriculture (irrigation)
Figure 14. The 84 EGS identified from the nine habitat types in NTB
30
Typology 7
Typology 2
Fishing and seaweed
Typology 1
Fishing
Irrigation, rice, ecotourism, fishing. Also
coconuts, maize, cacao, coffee, drinking water,
cassava, cashews.
Buffaloes, salt ponds, mangos, bananas,
durian, padi gogo, rice, mangroves
Inshore and offshore fishing. Also buffaloes,
cattle, ecotourism, seaweed, honey bees, rice.
Typology 4
Typology 5
Rice and tobacco
Typology 6
Rice, irrigation, tobacco. Also cattle, goats,
vegetables, timber, drinking water, cassava,
peanuts, mung beans, coffee, cacao, garlic,
onions, bandeng ponds, ecotourism.
Padi gogo, cattle, goats, vegetables.
Cattle, goats, irrigation, drinking water. Also
rice, buffaloes, coconuts, cashews, chickens,
soya beans, mung beans, bananas, peanuts,
maize, coffee, jatropha
Typology 3
Peanuts, vegetables
Figure 15. The geographical extent of the EGS typologies, primary EGS in terms of production, and
rural sub-districts within each type
3.3.2 Impact modelling for 2030
The potential impacts of the Jungle Law scenario on each typology’s mixture of EGS were
estimated using the CSIRO threat-asset interaction model (Skewes et al. 2011; Figure 16). In
the workshop, participants ranked the relative value of each EGS in terms of four indicators of
well-being: income, food security, health and social cohesion. Combining this with the
‘production’ information from the typology (see 3.3.1) gave the relative importance of each
EGS to well-being in each typology. By applying the downscaled climate and human population
growth projections aggregated for all kecamatan within each typology (Appendix III), the
system drivers and threats were modelled, and the resulting impacts on well-being estimated.
System drivers and threats
● Human population
● Climate
Act on
Ecosystem assets
● Forest
● Populations
● Reefs
● Agricultural land
Sensitivity and
exposure
Potential
impact (-1 to +1)
Which supply
Ecosystem goods and services (EGS)
● Paddy rice
● Water
● Fish
● Tourism
EGS
production (0-5)
EGS
importance (%)
Which underpin
Human well-being
● Income
● Food security
● Health
● Social cohesion
Well-being
impact (%)
EGS
values (0-5)
Figure 16. The threat-asset interaction model used to estimate the importance of EGS, and the
impact on human well-being from the Jungle Law scenario
The results showed an overall negative impact on human well-being for all typologies by 2030.
This negative impact increased for all typologies in 2060 and 2090 (Figure 17). The most
impacted in 2030 was Typology 3 (Rice and bandeng ponds), followed by Typology 7 (Diverse
cropping and coastal activity), Typology 4 (Diverse agriculture and forest use) and Typology 5
(Rice and tobacco).
A working group valuing ecosystem goods and services (D. Kirono)
Id
3
7
4
5
1
6
2
2030
2060
2090
-12.6
-16.0
-29.6
-12.3
-16.2
-26.8
-10.4
-12.4
-24.7
-9.9
-13.2
-26.7
-6.5
-9.7
-20.2
-6.5
-7.0
-13.7
-5.8
-6.3
-16.8
Typology name
Rice and tobacco
Fishing
Fishing and seaweed
Figure 17. The overall impact (%) on human well-being for all EGS in each typology in 2030, 2060
and 2090 under the ‘Business as Usual’ Jungle Law scenario.
32
3.4 Session 4: What is the adaptive capacity of NTB
communities today?
3.4.1 Indicators of adaptive capacity
This session began with a description of the capitals framework which can be used to measure
adaptive capacity (e.g. Brown et al. 2010):
o
o
o
o
o
o
Natural capital (e.g. land, fresh water, forests, biodiversity)
Human capital (e.g. education, health, skills)
Physical capital (e.g. roads, electricity, irrigation systems)
Financial capital (e.g. money, savings, loans)
Political capital (e.g. political power, religious power)
Social capital (e.g. leadership, social networks, institutions)
Participants were asked to identify indicators for each capital that were important for adaptive
capacity in NTB. In total participants identified 18 indicators, with three for each capital (Table
14).
3.4.2 Scoring indicators of adaptive capacity
Participants were then asked to break into six working groups, one for each capital, and score
the relative strength of each indicator for communities in each typology. The average score for
each indicator in each capital was calculated (Table 14) and graphed (Figure 18). Overall,
Typology 5 (Rice and tobacco) and Typology 6 (Diverse livestock and cropping) had the highest
average adaptive capacity index due to relatively high levels of physical, financial and social
capital. Typology 1 (Fishing) had the lowest index due to low levels of natural, financial and
political capital. Typologies 2 (Fishing and seaweed), 3 (Rice and bandeng ponds) and 7
(Diverse cropping and coastal activity) had similar intermediate levels of adaptive capacity
(Table 14).
Table 14. Indicators of adaptive capacity identified by the six working groups, and index scores (0 = none, 5 = high) for each indicator
Capital
Natural
Human
Physical
Indicator
Biodiversity and
ecosystems
Marine
productivity
Access to good
water quantity
and quality
Average
Education level
Level of wellbeing
Work ethic
Average
Irrigation
infrastructure
Road and
transport
infrastructure
Agricultural
infrastructure
Average
Typology 1:
Fishing
Typology 2:
Fishing and
seaweed
Typology 3:
Rice and
bandeng
ponds
Typology 4:
Diverse
agriculture and
forest use
Typology 5:
Rice and
tobacco
Typology 6:
Diverse
livestock and
cropping
Typology 7: Diverse
cropping and
coastal activity
1
3
2
5
2
4
5
4
5
2
1
1
0
5
1
3
5
5
5
5
2
2.0
2
3.7
2
3.0
3
3.7
3
2.7
4
3.0
3
4.0
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
4
2.7
4
2.7
4
3.0
4
3.0
4
3.3
4
3.0
4
2.7
0
0
5
3
5
4
3
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
3
3
4
3
5
3
4
2.7
2.7
4.7
3.7
5.0
3.7
4.0
34
Table 14 continued. Indicators of adaptive capacity identified by participants for each capital, and index scores (0 = none, 5 = high) for each indicator
Capital
Financial
Political
Social
Indicator
Typology 1:
Fishing
Typology 2:
Fishing and
seaweed
Typology 4:
Diverse
agriculture and
forest use
2
Typology 5:
Rice and
tobacco
3
Typology 3:
Rice and
bandeng
ponds
3
Typology 7: Diverse
cropping and coastal
activity
4
Typology 6:
Diverse
livestock and
cropping
4
Income
Remittance from
migrant workers
Access to credit
Average
Good
representation by
formal and
informal leaders
Representation of
women in
decision-making
Representation of
community
interests
Average
Loyalty to leaders
Access to
information
Trustworthy
leaders
Average
Overall average
2
2
2
2
2
3
4
1
3
2.3
3
2.7
3
2.7
3
2.3
5
4.0
4
4.0
2
2.0
4
4
3
3
2.5
5
2
2
5
3
2.5
3
3
3
1
2
4
3
4.5
5
2.5
2.3
4
3.7
2
3.3
2
2.8
2
3.3
5
4.3
4
2.5
1
4
3
3
3
5
4
3
1
2
3
1
4
4
2
3.0
2.5
2.3
2.9
2.7
3.2
2.0
2.9
4.7
3.7
4.0
3.7
2.0
2.9
3
Financial
Typology 1: Fishing
Social
Human
Typology 2: Fishing and
seaweed
Typology 3: Rice and
bandeng ponds
Typology 4: Diverse
agriculture and forest use
Typology 5: Rice and tobacco
Political
Natural
Typology 6: Diverse livestock
and cropping
Typology 7: Diverse cropping
and coastal activity
Physical
Figure 18. The average scores for indicators in each capital, shown for each typology
3.5 Session 5: Which are the most vulnerable livelihoods in
NTB?
In this session the results of the potential impacts in 2030 of the ‘Business as Usual’ Jungle Law
scenario on human well-being (see Figure 17) was combined with the adaptive capacity index
for each typology (Table 14). This gave a relative vulnerability index for each typology (Figure
19). The most vulnerable typology was Typology 7 (Diverse cropping and coastal activity),
followed by Typology 3 (Rice and bandeng ponds), Typology 4 (Diverse agriculture and forest
use) and Typology 5 (Rice and tobacco). By 2090 vulnerability had at least doubled for all
typologies. The first three typologies remained the most vulnerable, but Typology 1 (Fishing)
became the fourth most vulnerable.
Id
7
3
4
5
1
2
6
Typology name
Rice and tobacco
Fishing
Fishing and seaweed
2030
2090
-12.3
-16.2
-12.6
-16.0
-10.4
-12.4
-9.9
-13.2
-6.5
-9.7
-5.8
-6.3
-6.5
-7.0
A.C. Index
2.9
3.2
2.9
3.7
2.5
2.9
3.7
Vulnerability
2030
0.21
0.20
0.18
0.13
0.13
0.10
0.09
index
2090
0.46
0.46
0.43
0.36
0.40
0.29
0.18
Figure 19. The well-being impact, adaptive capacity (AC) and vulnerability index for each typology in
2030 and 2090. The map shows results for 2030, with darker colours reflecting greater vulnerability
36
3.6 Session 6: What are the priority adaptation strategies
required to improve livelihoods in NTB?
3.6.1 Examples of adaptation strategies
This session began with examples of adaptation strategies being given by Tim Kolaboratif
members, such as alternative cropping systems and payments for ecosystem services schemes.
It was explained that strategies could be focussed on both the impacts of change (e.g.
declining rainfall and reduced crop yields) and adaptive capacity issues (e.g. poor physical
capital such as irrigation infrastructure).
3.6.2 Designing adaptation strategies for vulnerable typologies
Participants were then divided into four working groups to design adaptation strategies for
four vulnerable typologies identified under the ‘Business as Usual’ Jungle Law scenario:
Typology 7 (Diverse cropping and coastal activity), Typology 3 (Rice and bandeng ponds),
Typology 5 (Rice and tobacco) and Typology 1 (Fishing). One group was assigned to each
typology. Each group was provided with detailed graphs of the impacts on human well-being in
2030 from Session 3 and the scores for adaptive capacity indicators from Session 4 for that
typology.
From this information, each group listed adaptation strategies in descending order of priority
for sub-districts within that typology (see Appendix II). For each strategy they also listed the
following information:
o
o
o
o
o
o
The impacted EGS and the driver or threat causing that impact
Alternative strategies which take advantage of underutilised EGS
The capital requiring improvement to build adaptive capacity
The resources required to implement the strategy
The stakeholders required to implement the strategy
Further research required to develop the strategy
Finally, each group was asked to consider whether the strategies identified were likely to be
mal-adaptive if any of the other three scenarios eventuated: Adaptive NTB, Well-being Village
and Blooming Flower. When completed, each group presented their results to the other
participants to explain and refine their strategies.
3.6.3 Typology 7 Diverse cropping and coastal activity
The most important EGS was wetland rice, and this was highly negatively impacted, largely by
a projected change in annual rainfall of -9% (Appendix III). Red rice was of moderate
importance but also highly negatively impacted by reductions in rainfall. Other important
crops such as mungbean, onion, sweet potato and pineapple were also impacted by rainfall
reduction. Spring and groundwater for irrigation and drinking water were also important and
highly impacted by increased resource use plus rainfall reduction (Figure 20). Land use change
from increased building and infrastructure linked to a projected 26% increase in the human
population (Appendix III) was also an important impact for most EGS. The adaptive capacity
assessment showed that this typology had relatively low levels of social, financial, human and
political capital (Figure 20).
EGS Importance (%)
0
Rice production, Wetland
Prawn pond, Wetland
Mung bean, Dryland
Onion, Dryland
Sweet potato, Wetland
Pineapple, Dryland
Cattle, Wetland
Custard apple, Dryland
Agriculture (Irrigation), River, spring water
Sand mining, Dryland
Maize, Wetland
Buffalo, Dryland
Soya bean, Wetland
Padi gogo production, Dryland
Coconut, Dryland
Drinking water, Ground water
Agriculture (irrigation), Ground water
Drinking water, River, spring water
Vegetables, Wetland
Red rice, Wetland
Maize, Dryland
Peanut, Wetland
Goat, Wetland
Salt pond, Wetland
Tobacco, Dryland
Cassava, Dryland
Chicken, Dryland
Avodado, Dryland
Tamarind, Dryland
Goat, Dryland
2
4
6
Potential impact (-1 to +1)
8 -0.4
-0.3
Prawn pond, Wetland
Mung bean, Dryland
Onion, Dryland
Pineapple, Dryland
Cattle, Wetland
Maize, Wetland
Buffalo, Dryland
Soya bean, Wetland
Coconut, Dryland
Vegetables, Wetland
Red rice, Wetland
Maize, Dryland
Peanut, Wetland
Goat, Wetland
Salt pond, Wetland
Tobacco, Dryland
Cassava, Dryland
Chicken, Dryland
Avodado, Dryland
Tamarind, Dryland
Goat, Dryland
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
Financial
Social
Human
Political
Natural
Physical
Impacts
Climate
Temperature increase
Rainfall change
Sea level rise
Ocean acidification
Human population
Exploitation
Land use change
Pollution
Figure 20. The current top 30 most important EGS (left), potential impact for each EGS in 2030 (centre), and relative levels of adaptive capacity today according to
the six capitals (right) for Typology 7 Diverse cropping and coastal activity.
38
Table 15. Adaptation strategies identified for Typology 7 Diverse cropping and coastal activity, listed in descending order of importance
Adaptation
strategy
Impacted EGS and
threats addressed,
or EGS alternatives
Capitals
addressed
1. Political
2. Social
3. Physical
4. Natural
Resources
required to
implement
strategy
Regulations,
financial
support, expert
input
Stakeholders required to
implement strategy
1. North Lombok District
Government
2. Communities
3. NGOs
1. Improved land
use planning
through Regional
Spatial Plan
(RTRW
Kabupaten)
Drinking water,
irrigation, energy,
timber and
agricultural crop
production
2. Improved
dryland
management
systems for
climate change
Agricultural and
livestock
production,
plantations and
estates impacted by
rainfall declines
1. Political
2. Natural
3. Physical
4. Social
5. Financial
Financial
support,
improved
irrigation
systems
1. Communities
2. Farmers
3. NTB and District
Governments
Forest tours,
waterfalls, marine
tourism
1. Political
2. Natural
3. Physical
4. Social
5. Financial
Policies,
financial
support,
infrastructure
1. Communities
2. Farmers
3. NTB and District
Governments
4. Tour operators
Drinking water,
irrigation water
impacted by
resource use and
rainfall declines
1. Political
2. Natural
3. Physical
4. Social
5. Financial
Local wisdom
and law (Awiqawiq), financial
support
1. Communities
2. Farmers
3. NTB and District
Governments
3. Development
and
diversification of
ecotourism
4. Improved
water resource
management,
including
groundwater
Research needed
to develop
strategy
Land suitability
analysis, land use
database, KLHS
Crop adaptability
testing, breeding
and integrated
farming system
development for
climate change
Ecotourism
feasibility study
Water resource
inventory,
including
groundwater,
water balance
study and
alternative water
conservation
methods
Scenario 1
Adaptive NTB
Mal-adaptive?
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
Scenario 2
Well-being
village
Mal-adaptive?
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
Scenario 3
Blooming
flower
Mal-adaptive?
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
The priority strategy identified was improved land use planning through the district Regional
Spatial Plan (RTRW Kabupaten) to anticipate the impact of climate change and human
population growth (Table 15). This was followed by improved dryland management systems
for climate change, development and diversification of ecotourism and improved water
resource management. None of these were considered to be mal-adaptive, and were
therefore ‘no regrets’ strategies suitable for any future scenarios.
3.6.4 Typology 3 Rice and bandeng ponds
By far the most important EGS was wetland rice, and this was highly negatively impacted,
largely by land use from increased building and infrastructure linked to a projected 26%
increase in the human population, plus projected change in annual rainfall of -5% (Appendix
III). By comparison other EGS were far less important. However, onions, goats and peanuts
were of moderate importance and also negatively influenced by these threats. Although less
important EGS, spring and groundwater for irrigation and drinking water were highly impacted
by increased resource use linked to human population growth (Figure 21). The adaptive
capacity assessment showed that this typology had relatively low levels of social and financial
capital (Figure 21).
The priority strategy identified was development of rice fields and irrigation pond
infrastructure to anticipate the impact of land use change due to population growth, and
changing rainfall (Table 16). This was followed by diversifying the use of paddy fields and fish
ponds, and optimising farmer and fish farmer income through processing and marketing. None
of these were considered to be mal-adaptive, and were therefore ‘no regrets’ strategies
suitable for any future scenarios.
3.6.5 Typology 5 Rice and tobacco
The most important EGS was wetland rice, and this was highly impacted, largely by land use
from increased building and infrastructure linked to high human population density and
projected growth of 26% (Appendix III). By comparison other EGS were less important, but
cattle and tobacco were of moderate importance and also influenced by these threats.
Although less important EGS, spring and groundwater for irrigation and drinking water were
highly impacted by increased resource use linked to human population growth (Figure 22). The
adaptive capacity assessment showed that this typology had relatively low levels of human,
natural and political capital (Figure 22).
The priority strategy identified was climate information to raise the awareness of rice and
tobacco farmers about climate variability, followed by improving cropping patterns and
varieties to adapt to changing climatic patterns, payments for ecosystem services schemes to
sustainably manage water resources, and diversifying production of non-rice food crops to
enhance food security (Table 17). None of these strategies were considered to be maladaptive, and were therefore ‘no regrets’ strategies suitable for any future scenarios.
40
EGS Importance (%)
0
Onion, Wetland
Goat, Wetland
Peanut, Wetland
Soya bean, Wetland
Cassava, Dryland
Chicken, Dryland
Pineapple, Dryland
Vegetables, Wetland
Chicken, Wetland
Bandeng pond, Wetland
Timber, Forest
10
20
30
40 -0.5
Onion, Wetland
Goat, Wetland
Peanut,Impacts
Wetland
Climate
SoyaTemperature
bean, Wetlandincrease
RainfallDryland
change
Cassava,
Chicken,
Dryland
Sea level
rise
Pineapple, Dryland
Ocean acidification
Agriculture (irrigation),
Ground
water
Human
population
Vegetables,
Wetland
Exploitation
Land use
change
Chicken,
Wetland
BandengPollution
pond, Wetland
Timber, Forest
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
Financial
Social
Human
Political
Natural
Physical
the six capitals (right) for Typology 3 Rice and bandeng ponds.
Table 16. Adaptation strategies identified for Typology 3 Rice and bandeng ponds, listed in descending order of importance
Adaptation
strategy
1. Development
of rice fields and
irrigation pond
infrastructure
2. Diversifying the
use of paddy
fields and ponds
3. Optimising
farmer and fish
farmer income
through
processing and
marketing
Impacted EGS and
threats addressed,
or EGS alternatives
Irrigation water
from the impacts of
land use and
reduced rainfall on
wetland rice
production
Boosting the
production from
rice paddies and
fish ponds to off-set
impacts of land use
and reduced rainfall
Boosting paddy
rice, fish from
ponds, soya,
peanuts and
vegetable
production and
profitability
Capitals
addressed
1. Financial
(access to
capital
assistance)
2. Natural
3. Human (level
of knowledge
and skill
development)
1. Financial
(access to
capital
assistance)
2.Human
(knowledge,
work ethic)
3. Natural
(biodiversity,
ecosystems,
marine
productivity)
1. Financial
(access to
credit)
2. Social
(networking)
3. Physical
(transport and
electricity)
5. Human
(skills)
Resources
required to
implement
strategy
Skills (capacity
building)
implement strategy
Research needed
to develop
strategy
1. NTB Public Works
Department
2. Rice farmers
3. Fish farmers and owners
Development of
irrigation
infrastructure
based on climate
change
information
Information on
new farming
techniques
1. NTB Agriculture Food and
Horticultural Crops
Department
2. NTB Fishery and Maritime
Affairs Department
3. Coordinating agriculture
extension bodies
Processing and
marketing
techniques
1. NTB Industry and Trade
Department
2. Medium and small scale
enterprises
Horticultural Crops
Department
4. NTB Food Security Agency
42
Crop, fish and
commodity
suitability
assessment
Needs
assessment and
preliminary
baseline data
inventory
Scenario 1
Adaptive NTB
Mal-adaptive?
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
Scenario 2
Well-being
village
Mal-adaptive?
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
Scenario 3
Blooming
flower
Mal-adaptive?
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
Typology 5, EGS Importance
EGS Importance (%)
0
Cattle, Dryland
Tobacco, Wetland
Peanut, Wetland
Cacao, Dryland
Pineapple, Dryland
Coconut, Dryland
Soya bean, Wetland
Cashew, Dryland
Prawn pond, Wetland
Onion, Dryland
Mango, Dryland
Cattle, Wetland
Maize, Wetland
Goat, Wetland
Banana, Dryland
Vegetables, Dryland
Peanut, Dryland
Fishing, Inshore
Fishing, Offshore
Ecotourism, River, spring water
Buffalo, Wetland
Mung bean, Dryland
10
20
30 -0.4
Cattle, Dryland
Tobacco, Wetland
Peanut, Wetland
Cacao, Dryland
Pineapple, Dryland
Coconut, Dryland
Soya bean, Wetland
Cashew, Dryland
Prawn pond, Wetland
Onion, Dryland
Mango, Dryland
Cattle, Wetland
Maize, Wetland
Goat, Wetland
Banana, Dryland
Vegetables, Dryland
Peanut, Dryland
Fishing, Inshore
Fishing, Offshore
Buffalo, Wetland
Mung bean, Dryland
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
Financial
Social
Human
Political
Natural
Physical
Impacts
Climate
Rainfall change
Sea level rise
Ocean acidification
Human population
Exploitation
Land use change
Pollution
the six capitals (right) for Typology 5 Rice and tobacco.
Table 17. Adaptation strategies identified by participants for Typology 5 Rice and tobacco, listed in descending order of importance
Adaptation
strategy
Impacted EGS and
threats addressed,
or EGS alternatives
Capitals
addressed
1.Climate
information to
raise awareness
of farming
communities
Rice and tobacco
agricultural
production,
threatened by
climate variability
1. Human
2. Social
3. Natural
4. Physical
5. Political
2. Improving
cropping
patterns and
varieties
Rice and tobacco
agricultural
production,
threatened by
climate variability
and land change
Irrigation and spring
water, forested
upper catchments,
agriculture and
estate crops
impacted by
resource use
1. Human
2. Social
3. Natural
4. Physical
5. Political
Impacts of land use
and climate change
on food security
3. Payment for
Ecosystem
Services
implementation
4. Diversification
of non-rice food
production
Resources
required to
implement
strategy
Human
resources
implement strategy
Research needed to
develop strategy
Scenario 1
Adaptive NTB
1. BMKG
2. UNRAM and other researchers
3. BPTP
Action research for
climate adaptation
Mal-adaptive?
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
Scenario 2
Well-being
village
Mal-adaptive?
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
Natural and
human
resources
Horticultural Crops Department
2. UNRAM and other researchers
3. NTB Estate Crops Department
4. BPTP
Develop drought
and climatetolerant tobacco
varieties
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it will
be adaptive for all
conditions
1. Financial
2. Physical
3. Human
4. Natural
5. Social
6. Political
Spring
water,
forests
1. Water debit and
quality testing
2. Biodiversity and
forest degradation
monitoring
3. Institutional and
environmental
economic
evaluation
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it will
be adaptive for all
conditions
1. Human
2. Natural
3. Social
Natural
resource
and human
resource
2. NTB Public Works Department
3. Religious and community
leaders
4. Farmers
5. UNRAM
6. NGOs
7. Water companies
8. NTB Health Department
1. NTB Food Security Agency
3. World Food Program
4. NTB Health Department
Nutrition
assessments of
non-rice foods;
options for
diversifying local
food production
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it will
be adaptive for all
conditions
44
Scenario 3
Blooming flower
Mal-adaptive?
No, because it will
be adaptive for all
conditions
3.6.6 Typology 1 Fishing
The most important EGS was inshore fishing, followed by offshore fishing (Figure 23).
However, these were not greatly impacted by 2030, but the major threat was increased
resource use due to projected population growth of 27% (Appendix III). Wetland rice was the
third most important EGS, and was also likely to be moderately impacted due to a projected
change in annual rainfall of -5% (Appendix III), and some loss of productive land from
increased building and infrastructure. Other moderately important agricultural EGS such as
custard apple, pineapple, onion, garlic and coffee were also impacted to a similar extent by
these two threats. The most impacted EGS was coral reef fisheries, because sea acidification
and temperature rises by 2030 will cause coral mortality. The adaptive capacity assessment
showed that this typology had relatively low levels of all capitals (Figure 23).
The priority strategy identified was improving the standard of living of fishing communities
because of the threats of over-exploitation of fisheries. This was followed by alternative
environmental management strategies for habitats, more water-efficient cropping and recycling and mangrove planting to protect the coastline (Table 18). None of these strategies
were considered to be mal-adaptive, and were therefore ‘no regrets’ strategies suitable for
any future scenarios.
3.6.7 Other typologies
The assessment of EGS importance, impacts and adaptive capacity for Typologies 2 (Fishing
and seaweed), Typology 4 (Diverse agriculture and forest use) and Typology 6 (Diverse
livestock and cropping) are shown in Appendix IV. Projected changes in climate and population
for these typologies are also shown in Appendix III.
3.6.8 Case studies and next steps
Figure 24 illustrates the overall process and results of the workshop process from Sessions 1 –
6. ‘No regrets’ adaptation strategies were identified for four typologies based on their
important EGS, impacts by 2030 for the NTB ‘Business as Usual’ Jungle Law scenario, and
adaptive capacity today. Strategies aim to steer rural livelihoods in sub-districts towards the
Well-being Village scenario and the agreed vision for NTB livelihoods.
Sub-districts within three of these typologies were selected for the Activity 4 community case
studies (Figure 25):
o
o
o
Typology 1 Fishing: Sape (Bima District) and Jerowaru (East Lombok District)
Typology 7 Diverse cropping and coastal activity: Bayan and Pemanang (North
Lombok District)
Typology 5 Rice and tobacco: Janapria (Central Lombok District) and Terara (East
Lombok District)
Similar scenario planning workshops are planned for these case studies in October 2011 –
March 2012.
EGS Importance (%)
0
Fishing, Inshore
Fishing, Offshore
Prawn pond, Coastal
Cattle, Dryland
Pineapple, Dryland
Garlic, Dryland
Onion, Wetland
Coffee, Forest
Fishery, Coral reef
Mangrove for timber, Coastal
Pearl farm, Inshore
Bandeng pond, Coastal
Tobacco, Wetland
Vegetables, Wetland
Ecotourism, Coastal
Mung bean, Dryland
Prawn pond, Wetland
Tamarind, Dryland
Cassava, Dryland
Building material, Coral reef
Seaweed, Inshore
Coconut, Forest
5
10
15
20 -0.4
-0.3
Inshore, Fishing
Offshore, Fishing
Wetland, Rice production
Coastal, Prawn pond
Dryland, Custard apple
Dryland, Cattle
Dryland, Pineapple
Dryland, Garlic
Wetland, Onion
Forest, Coffee
Coral reef, Fishery
Coastal, Mangrove for timber
Inshore, Pearl farm
Dryland, Sand mining
Coastal, Bandeng pond
Wetland, Tobacco
Ground water, Drinking water
Ground water, Agriculture (irrigation)
Wetland, Vegetables
Coastal, Ecotourism
Dryland, Mung bean
Wetland, Prawn pond
Dryland, Tamarind
Wetland, Sweet potato
River, spring water, Agriculture (Irrigation)
River, spring water, Drinking water
Dryland, Cassava
Coral reef, Building material
Inshore, Seaweed
Forest, Coconut
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
Financial
Social
Human
Political
Natural
Physical
Impacts
Climate
Rainfall change
Sea level rise
Ocean acidification
Human population
Exploitation
Land use change
Pollution
the six capitals (right) for Typology 1 Fishing.
46
Table 18. Adaptation strategies identified by participants for Typology 1 Fishing, listed in descending order of importance
Adaptation
strategy
1. Improved
standard of living
for fishing
communities
2. Alternative
environmental
management
strategies
3. More water
efficient cropping
and re-cycling
4. Mangrove
planting to
protect coastline
and create fish
habitat
Impacted EGS and
threats addressed,
or EGS alternatives
Capitals
addressed
Resources
required to
implement
strategy
1. Training,
infrastructure and
facilities
2. Capital
assistance
3. Fish processing
facilities
4. Socialization
5. Institutional
strengthening
implement strategy
Inshore, offshore
and coral reef
fisheries in
response to climate
change and overexploitation due to
population growth
1. Physical
2. Social
3. Financial
Management of
coral reefs,
mangroves, water
and agricultural
land
1. Human
2. Social
3. Natural
4. Financial
5. Political
1. Water quality
monitoring tools
2. Coral reef
protection
3. Mangrove
seedlings
1. NTB and District
Governments
2. NGOs
3. Private sector
Improved land and
fresh water
conservation which
is impacted by
rainfall decline and
poor land use
Impacts of sea level
rise on coastal
habitat and
fisheries
overexploitation
1. Financial
2. Physical
3. Natural
1. Technology
2. Water
management
infrastructure and
facilities
1. NTB and District
Governments
2. NGOs
3. Private sector
1. Physical
2. Natural
3. Financial
1. Mangrove
seedlings
2. Tools and
facilities
3. Information
technology
1. NTB and District
Governments
2. NGOs
3. Private sector
1. NTB and District
Government
2. NGOs
3. Private sector
Research needed to
develop strategy
Social, institutional
and economic
development (e.g.
fisheries
management,
building
fishermens’
capacity)
Develop sustainable
resource use and
management
systems
Develop improved
planting decisions
and water
management
Climate change and
sea level rise
information
Scenario 1
Adaptive NTB
Mal-adaptive?
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
Scenario 2
Well-being
village
Mal-adaptive?
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
Scenario 3
Blooming flower
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it will
be adaptive for all
conditions
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it will
be adaptive for all
conditions
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it
will be adaptive
for all
conditions
No, because it will
be adaptive for all
conditions
Mal-adaptive?
No, because it will
be adaptive for all
conditions
2030
2011
2060
2090
Well-being
Village
Human
resources
development
6
NTB
LIVELIHOODS
VISION
5
1
+
Adaptive capacity
DRIVERS OF
CHANGE
Adaptive NTB
NTB
LIVELIHOODS
2
Blooming
Flower
4
Climate change
3
Impact on
human wellbeing
Jungle Law
Figure 24. Summary of workshop process and results for Sessions 1 – 6. Numbers refer to each
session.
Figure 25. Case study sub-districts selected for Activity 4 community case studies
48
4.
WORKSHOP EVALUATION
A questionnaire survey carried out before and after the workshop demonstrated that
participants found the process useful, with 72% stating that the workshop had “increased my
understanding of climate change and how NTB can adapt” (Figure 26). Participants’
perceptions of the future also altered, with 72% thinking of “the future” as 20 or more years
before, increasing to 84% after the workshop (Figure 27). Before the workshop only 14%
considered that “NTB’s climate adaptation policies are enabling NTB to be ready to cope with
climate change”, but this increased to 33% after the workshop (Figure 28). Participants also
appeared to have a more realistic perception of climate change, with 39% strongly agreeing to
the statement “climate change poses a risk to me personally” before, falling to 23% after the
workshop (Figure 29).
The information presented in this scenario planning workshop:
increased my understanding of climate
change and how NTB can adapt
3%
5%
made me motivated to increase my
knowledge
18%
made me motivated to take action
2%
72%
all of the above
no answer
Figure 26. Participants’ (n=34) perceptions of the information presented in the workshop
How many years into the future do you think about when you hear the word
‘future’?
2% 7%
7%
0-5 years
11%
6-10 years
11-15 years
16-20 years
more than 20 years
73%
How many years into the future do you think about when you hear the word
‘future’?
3%
3%
3%
7%
0-5 years
6-10 years
11-15 years
16-20 years
more than 20 years
84%
Figure 27. Participants’ (n=34) perceptions of the future before (top) and after (bottom) the workshop
50
Figure 28. Participants’ (n=34) perceptions of NTB adaptation policies before (top) and after (bottom)
the workshop
How much do you agree with the following statement?: “Climate
change poses a risk to me personally.”
2%
2%
Strongly agree
7%
Agree
39%
Neutral
Disagree
No answer
50%
How much do you agree with the following statement?: “Climate
change poses a risk to me personally.”
2%
8%
23%
13%
Strongly agree
Agree
Neutral
Disagree
Strongly disagree
54%
Figure 29. Participants’ (n=34) perceptions of personal risks posed by climate change before (top)
and after (bottom) the workshop
52
5.
REFERENCES
Brown, P.R., Nelson, R., Jacobs, B., Kokic, P., Tracey, J., Ahmed, M. and DeVoil, P. (2010).
Enabling natural resource managers to self-assess their adaptive capacity. Agricultural Systems
103:562–568.
Ellis, F. (2000). Rural Livelihoods and Diversity in Developing Countries. Oxford University
Press: Oxford.
Fachry, A., Hanartani, Supartiningsih, S. and Butler, J.R.A. (2011). Social, cultural and economic
trends in NTB and their drivers of change. AusAID-CSIRO Research for Development Alliance,
University of Mataram, NTB Government. CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, Brisbane, and
University of Mataram, Lombok.
Hallegatte, S. (2009). Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change. Global Environmental
Change Human Policy Dimensions 19:240-247.
International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007). Climate Change 2007 - The Physical
Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC.
Kementerian Lingkungan Hidup (2009). Risk and Adaptation Assessment to Climate Change in
Lombok Island West Nusa Tenggara Province. Kementerian Lingkungan Hidup, GIZ, WWF,
Jakarta.
Kirono, D.G.C., McGregor, J., Nguyen, K., Katzfey, J. and Kent, D. (2010). Regional climate
change simulation and training workshop on climate change over eastern Indonesia and
Vietnam. A report to the CSIRO-AusAID Research for Development Alliance, Australia.
McGregor, J. L. and Dix, M.R. (2008). An updated description of the Conformal-Cubic
Atmospheric Model. In High Resolution Simulation of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Eds. K.
Hamilton and W. Ohfuchi, Springer, 51-76.
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005). Ecosystems and Human Well-being: a Framework
for Assessment. Island Press, Washington DC.
Mitchell, R., Agle, B. and Wood, D. (1997). Towards a theory of stakeholder identification and
salience: defining the principle of who and what really counts. Academy of Management
Review 22(4):853-86.
Skewes, T., Lyne, V., Butler, J.R.A., Mitchell, D., Poloczanska, E., Williams, K., Brewer, D.,
McLeod, I., Rochester, W., Sun, C. and Long, B. (2011). Melanesian coastal and marine
ecosystem assets: assessment framework and Milne Bay case study. CSIRO Final Report to the
CSIRO AusAID Alliance. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Brisbane
Smit, B. and Wandel, J. (2006). Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Global
Environmental Change 16 (3):282–292.
Suadnya, I., Habibi, P. and Handayani, T. (2011). Final report: NTB livelihood systems synthesis.
AusAID-CSIRO Research for Development Alliance, University of Mataram, NTB Government.
CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, Brisbane, and University of Mataram, Lombok.
Walker, B.H., Holling, C.S., Carpenter, S. and Kinzig, A. (2005). Resilience, adaptability and
transformability in social-ecological systems. Ecology and Society 9:5
54
APPENDIX I: WORKSHOP AGENDA
Climate Futures and Rural Livelihood Adaptation Strategies in
Nusa Tenggara Barat Province, Indonesia
NTB Scenario Planning Workshop
Monday 30th May – Thursday 2nd June 2011
Sanur Paradise Plaza Hotel, Bali
Workshop objectives:
1. Identify most vulnerable livelihoods in NTB
2. Identify priority adaptation strategies
3. Identify case studies
SUMMARY OF WORKSHOP ACTIVITIES
Monday 30th May
Stakeholders arrive and check in
Welcome dinner
DAY 1: Tuesday 31st May
Session 1: What are the drivers of change for rural livelihoods in NTB?
Session 2: What are the desired and possible futures for NTB livelihoods?
DAY 2: Wednesday 1st June
Session 3: What impact will the Business as Usual future have on human well-being?
Session 4: What is the adaptive capacity of NTB communities today?
DAY 3: Thursday 2nd June
Session 5: Which are the most vulnerable livelihoods in NTB?
Session 6: What are the priority adaptation strategies required to improve livelihoods in
NTB?
WORKSHOP PROGRAM
Monday 30th May
All day
Stakeholders arrive and check in
Evening
Stakeholders’ dinner and introductions
DAY 1: Tuesday 31st May
8:30
Opening address
9:00
Introduction, evaluation and consents: Prof. Yusuf Sutaryono, UNRAM and Imam Suharto, VECO Indonesia
(Facilitator), Erin Bohensky (CSIRO)
9:20 – 10:20
Session 1: What are the drivers of change for rural livelihoods in NTB?
Activity
Activity time
Subject
Presenter
Materials, aids etc.
Presentation
20 mins
Global futures
Erin Bohensky (CSIRO)
Powerpoint, posters
Presentation
20 mins
Population and economic
trends and thresholds
Anwar Fachry
(UNRAM)
Powerpoint, posters
Presentation
20 mins
Cultural trends, gender
issues and thresholds
Hanartani (UNRAM)
Powerpoint, posters
10:20 – 10:45
Morning tea and coffee
56
Outputs
10:45 – 11:15
Session 1 continued
Activity
Activity time
Subject
Presenter
Presentation
15 mins
Current NTB climate
Adi Ripaldi (BMKG)
Powerpoint, posters
Presentation
15 mins
Climate change and sea
level rise projections in NTB
Dewi Kirono (CSIRO)
Powerpoint, posters including
sea level rise and Lombok
Vulnerability Assessment
Introduction
10 mins
Describe session on drivers
Imam Suharto
Flip chart
Four working
groups identify
drivers
30 mins
List drivers of change
Working groups
facilitated by Tim
Kolaboratif
Flip chart for each group
List of drivers for each group
Discussion
20 mins
Cluster drivers from
working groups
Imam Suharto
Central flip chart
Clustered themes of drivers
Voting
15 mins
Voting for themes of drivers
by importance, two votes
per person
Imam Suharto
Central flip chart
Ranked themes of drivers
12:30 – 1:30
Lunch
Outputs
1:30 – 3:30
Session 2: What are the desired and possible futures for NTB livelihoods?
Activity
Activity time
Subject
Presenter
Outputs
Discussion
15 mins
Desired future vision for
NTB rural livelihoods in
2090
Imam Suharto
Central flip chart
Statement of desired future in
terms of income, health, food
security, social cohesion,
freedom of choice
Presentation
30 mins
Introduce scenario
planning, select and
describe two most
important themes of drivers
Imam Suharto
Central flip chart to explain
and describe drivers
Two major driver themes
selected and described
Four working
groups develop
scenario
narratives
1 ½ hours
Describe scenarios with
narratives and pictures for
2030, 2060, 2090,
identifying thresholds and
management actions
Four working groups,
facilitated by Tim
Kolaboratif
Flip chart and pens for each
group
Narrative and pictures for
each scenario, one working
group per scenario
3:30 – 4:00
Tea
4:00 – 5:00
Session 2 continued
Activity
Activity time
Subject
Presenter
Outputs
Four working
groups present
scenarios
1 hour
Presentation and
discussion of scenarios
Four working groups
Audio recording of narratives
and discussion
Feedback from audience and
refining of scenarios
58
DAY 2: Wednesday 1st June
9:00 – 10:30
Session 3: What impact will the Business as Usual future have on human well-being?
Activity
Activity time
Subject
Presenter
Review Day 1
Preview Day 2
30 mins
Review of drivers, desired
future, selected scenario,
and preview Day 2
Imam Suharto
All posters, flip charts from
Day 1, working groups’
scenarios grouped on walls
Presentation
and discussion
30 mins
EGS typology for NTB
Wayan Suadnya
(UNRAM)
Powerpoint and printed maps
of typologies
Outputs
Tim Skewes (CSIRO)
Presentation
30 mins
Describe session on
valuation of EGS for human
well-being
10:30 – 11:00
Tea
11:00 – 12:30
Session 3 continued
Tim Skewes (CSIRO)
Wayan Suadnya
(UNRAM)
Powerpoint of threat-asset
interaction model
Activity
Activity time
Subject
Presenter
Outputs
Four working
groups
1 ½ hours
Valuation of EGS for all
NTB
Four working groups,
facilitated by Tim
Kolaboratif
Printed typology map with
written descriptions, valuation
spread sheets
Completed valuation sheets
for NTB. Data entered into
computer and analysed by
Tim Kolaboratif during lunch
12:30 – 1:30
Lunch
1:30 – 3:30
Session 4: What is the adaptive capacity of NTB communities today?
Activity
Activity time
Subject
Presenter
Outputs
Presentation
and discussion
30 mins
Presentation of results of
impacts on human wellbeing for each typology
Tim Skewes (CSIRO)
Powerpoint maps of impacts
on typologies
Table of overall impact on
human well-being for each
typology
Presentation
and discussion
30 mins
Measuring adaptive
capacity using six capitals,
identifying indicators for
each capital
Sarah Park (CSIRO)
Powerpoint, flip charts
Indicators for each capital
identified
Six working
groups, one per
capital
1 hour
Scoring adaptive capacity
for each capital in each
typology
Working groups,
facilitated by Tim
Kolaboratif
Printed typology maps with
written descriptions, flip
charts: one capital per group
3:30 – 4:00
Tea
4:00 – 5:00
Session 4 continued
Wayan Suadnya
(UNRAM)
Imam Suharto
Activity
Activity time
Subject
Presenter
Six working
groups
(continued)
30 mins
Scoring adaptive capacity
for each capital in each
typology
Working groups,
facilitated by Tim
Kolaboratif
Printed typology maps with
written descriptions, flip
charts: one capital per group
Presentation of
results by
working groups
30 mins
Results of adaptive
capacity index for each
typology
Working groups
Flip charts and typology maps
60
Outputs
Scored indicators for each
typology. Data entered into
computer and adaptive
capacity index produced for
each typology
DAY 3: Thursday 2nd June
9:00 – 10:30
Session 5: Which are the most vulnerable livelihoods in NTB?
Activity
Activity time
Subject
Presenter
Review Day 2
Preview Day 3
10 mins
Review of desired future,
EGS typology and impacts,
preview Day 3
Imam Suharto
Powerpoint and paper maps
from Day 2
Presentation
and discussion
40 mins
Combined analysis of
typologies’ vulnerability
from Day 2
Tim Skewes (CSIRO)
Powerpoint results of
impacts, adaptive capacity
index and livelihoods
vulnerability index
Livelihoods vulnerability index
for each typology – table and
map
Powerpoint map of
vulnerability index
Livelihoods vulnerability index
and case study typologies
agreed
Sarah Park (CSIRO)
Wayan Suadnya
(UNRAM)
Discussion
10:30 – 11:00
40 mins
Tea
Discussion of livelihood
typologies by vulnerability,
identification of case study
typologies
Imam Suharto
Outputs
11:00 – 12:30
Session 6: What are the priority adaptation strategies required to improve livelihoods in NTB?
Activity
Activity time
Subject
Presenter
Introduction
15 mins
Adaptation strategies and
policies
Imam Suharto
Powerpoint examples of
adaptation strategies and
policies
Crop suitability modelling
Kisman (UNRAM)
Presentation
15 mins
Ketut Puspadi (BPTP)
Dian Nur Ratri (BMKG)
Outputs
Powerpoint, printed maps and
posters of current and future
rice and maize crop suitability
Brian Long (CSIRO)
Presentation
15 mins
Payments for Ecosystem
Services for water
Latifa (UNRAM)
Powerpoint and posters
Working groups
45 mins
required for case study
typologies
Working groups (one
per typology), facilitated
by Tim Kolaboratif
Print outs of EGS importance,
and detailed impacts for each
typology, adaptive capacity
data, typology maps
Adaptation strategies ranked
and described for each
typology:
1. EGS and threat
addressed
2. Capital addressed
3. Resources required
4. Stakeholders required
5. Research required
6. Mal-adaptive for other
future scenarios?
12:30 – 1:30
Lunch
62
1:30 – 3:30
Session 6 continued
Activity
Activity time
Subject
Presenter
Outputs
Working groups
continued
1 hour
required for case study
typologies
Working groups (one
per typology), facilitated
by Tim Kolaboratif
Print outs of EGS importance,
and detailed impacts for each
typology, adaptive capacity
data, typology maps
Adaptation strategies ranked
and described for each
typology
Discussion
1 hour
Presentation of strategies
and discussion about
possible mal-adaptation
Ketut Puspadi (BPTP)
Imam Suharto
Working groups’ flip chart
paper and strategies taped
onto wall
Refined adaptation strategies
on flip chart paper
Outputs
Questionnaires, powerpoint
images and flip chart
Workshop evaluation
3:30 – 4:00
Tea and stakeholders check out
4:00 – 5:00
Conclusions and next steps
Activity
Activity time
Subject
Presenter
Discussion
15 mins
Next steps
Prof. Sutaryono
(UNRAM)
James Butler (CSIRO)
Discussion
45 mins
Workshop evaluation and
close
Erin Bohensky (CSIRO)
Imam Suharto
Prof. Sutaryono
(UNRAM)
APPENDIX II: DISTRICTS AND RURAL SUB-DISTRICTS BY
TYPOLOGY
Typology
Sub-district
District
Area
2
(km )
Coast
(km)
Population
(2006)
Pop den.
2
(per km )
1
Ambalawi
Bima
190.2
19.3
17947
94.0
1
Madapangga
Bima
245.4
0.0
27980
114.0
1
Parado
Bima
196.8
22.6
8861
45.0
1
Sanggar
Bima
515.8
38.9
11632
23.0
1
Sape
Bima
219.4
116.0
50349
230.0
1
Soromandi
Bima
329.9
71.4
13260
40.0
1
Tambora
Bima
678.4
66.0
3830
6.0
1
Wera
Bima
407.9
94.1
27825
68.0
1
Praya Timur
Central Lombok
84.4
0.9
63773
755.0
1
Pujut
Central Lombok
222.8
60.8
94995
426.0
1
Hu'u
Dompu
243.5
38.3
15851
65.0
1
Kilo
Dompu
180.9
27.1
11997
66.0
1
Pajo
Dompu
78.5
7.4
12508
159.0
1
Woja
Dompu
362.9
29.4
51119
141.0
1
Jerowaru
East Lombok
149.5
152.8
50331
337.0
1
Keruak
East Lombok
28.2
5.6
46776
1659.0
2
Lambu
Bima
324.8
164.0
31758
98.0
2
Langgudu
Bima
320.3
152.0
30055
94.0
2
Wawo
Bima
85.8
0.0
17853
208.0
2
Kempo
Dompu
307.0
50.2
18029
59.0
2
Manggalewa
Dompu
283.4
62.7
27719
98.0
2
Pekat
Dompu
469.9
73.1
30691
65.0
3
Belo
Bima
73.0
0.0
19517
267.0
3
Bolo
Bima
86.2
10.9
41900
486.0
3
Monta
Bima
172.9
14.5
33230
192.0
3
Palibelo
Bima
82.0
12.8
23929
292.0
3
Woha
Bima
122.0
11.6
40508
332.0
3
Batukliang
Central Lombok
44.8
0.0
71289
1593.0
3
Jonggat
Central Lombok
64.0
0.0
87211
1362.0
3
Pringgarata
Central Lombok
52.0
0.0
59789
1151.0
3
Dompu
Dompu
166.4
4.2
49565
298.0
64
Typology
Sub-district
District
Area
2
(km )
Coast
(km)
Population
(2006)
Pop den.
2
(per km )
4
Aikmel
East Lombok
83.2
0.0
89872
1080.0
4
Pringgabaya
East Lombok
117.9
31.7
91806
779.0
4
Pringgasela
East Lombok
73.8
0.0
48342
655.0
4
Sambelia
East Lombok
207.5
70.1
31249
151.0
4
Sembalun
East Lombok
257.8
2.0
18209
71.0
4
Suela
East Lombok
128.1
0.0
37507
293.0
4
Wanasaba
East Lombok
68.5
0.0
60107
878.0
4
Gunungsari
West Lombok
95.9
0.0
77132
804.0
4
Narmada
West Lombok
138.9
0.0
89507
644.0
5
Donggo
Bima
123.3
0.0
16586
135.0
5
Lambitu
Bima
88.7
0.0
3187
36.0
5
Janapria
Central Lombok
76.3
0.0
67826
889.0
5
Kopang
Central Lombok
94.5
0.0
75835
802.0
5
Praya
Central Lombok
72.6
0.0
100105
1379.0
5
Praya Barat
Central Lombok
128.3
25.9
67063
523.0
5
Praya Barat Daya
Central Lombok
135.7
5.6
50874
375.0
5
Praya Tengah
Central Lombok
86.4
0.0
59658
691.0
5
Labuhan Haji
East Lombok
41.7
14.6
50917
1221.0
5
Masbagik
East Lombok
28.5
0.0
90739
3186.0
5
Montong Gading
East Lombok
37.5
0.0
37014
987.0
5
Sakra
East Lombok
32.7
0.0
51899
1585.0
5
Sakra Barat
East Lombok
26.8
0.0
45609
1701.0
5
Sakra Timur
East Lombok
29.8
5.4
41412
1390.0
5
Selong
East Lombok
20.1
0.0
73889
3668.0
5
Sikur
East Lombok
85.3
0.0
68228
800.0
5
Sukamulia
East Lombok
13.1
0.0
29501
2257.0
5
Suralaga
East Lombok
38.5
0.0
48824
1267.0
5
Terara
East Lombok
38.3
0.0
69399
1813.0
Typology
Sub-district
District
Area
2
(km )
Coast
(km)
Population
(2006)
Pop den.
2
(per km )
6
Alas
Sumbawa
206.7
38.6
29417
142.0
6
Alas Barat
Sumbawa
62.4
15.5
20366
326.0
6
Batu Lanteh
Sumbawa
298.4
0.0
10788
36.0
6
Buer
Sumbawa
200.0
20.2
16018
80.0
6
Empang
Sumbawa
310.6
33.5
22593
73.0
6
Labangka
Sumbawa
125.3
22.0
9540
76.0
6
Labuhan Badas
Sumbawa
454.3
135.5
27207
60.0
6
Lantung
Sumbawa
200.7
0.0
2717
14.0
6
Lape
Sumbawa
237.1
120.6
16077
68.0
6
Lenangguar
Sumbawa
563.6
14.7
6484
12.0
6
Lopok
Sumbawa
171.0
0.0
17652
103.0
6
Lunyuk
Sumbawa
763.9
50.1
17183
22.0
6
Maronge
Sumbawa
258.7
9.1
10205
39.0
6
Moyo Hilir
Sumbawa
213.4
100.0
22027
103.0
6
Moyo Hulu
Sumbawa
251.2
0.0
20846
83.0
6
Moyo Utara
Sumbawa
79.4
18.3
9417
119.0
6
Orong Telu
Sumbawa
298.4
0.0
6009
20.0
6
Plampang
Sumbawa
514.6
75.1
26408
51.0
6
Rhee
Sumbawa
189.2
18.1
7305
39.0
6
Ropang
Sumbawa
340.3
32.4
5808
17.0
6
Sumbawa
Sumbawa
68.9
11.9
53956
783.0
6
Tarano
Sumbawa
455.7
134.3
15199
33.0
6
Unter Iwes
Sumbawa
82.6
0.0
18341
222.0
6
Utan
Sumbawa
220.1
47.1
29187
133.0
6
Batulayar
West Lombok
51.0
12.0
38654
757.0
6
Gerung
West Lombok
69.0
4.4
75545
1095.0
6
Kediri
West Lombok
27.8
0.0
57058
2052.0
6
Kuripan
West Lombok
21.7
0.0
34130
1573.0
6
Labuapi
West Lombok
31.1
4.2
63801
2051.0
6
Lembar
West Lombok
99.8
17.0
47819
479.0
6
Lingsar
West Lombok
108.1
0.0
68037
629.0
6
Sekotong
West Lombok
322.1
162.7
51540
160.0
6
Brang Ene
West Sumbawa
168.9
0.0
4842
29.0
6
Brang Rea
West Sumbawa
278.4
0.0
11327
41.0
6
Jereweh
West Sumbawa
421.2
34.5
7077
17.0
6
Maluk
West Sumbawa
133.8
0.0
9965
74.0
66
Area
Coast
Typology
Sub-district
District
(km )
2
(km)
Population
(2006)
Pop den.
2
(per km )
6
Pototano
West Sumbawa
126.1
94.5
8160
65.0
6
Sekongkang
West Sumbawa
265.9
61.5
7214
27.0
6
Seteluk
West Sumbawa
140.8
7.7
14617
104.0
6
Taliwang
West Sumbawa
254.6
37.0
37876
149.0
7
Batukliang Utara
Central Lombok
203.7
0.0
45687
224.0
7
Bayan
North Lombok
308.0
21.4
45318
147.0
7
Gangga
North Lombok
161.9
10.6
45154
279.0
7
Kayangan
North Lombok
147.3
13.5
40203
273.0
7
Pemenang
North Lombok
56.8
34.4
31368
552.0
7
Tanjung
North Lombok
88.9
13.4
45955
517.0
APPENDIX III: CLIMATE AND POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR THE ‘BUSINESS AS USUAL’
SCENARIO BY TYPOLOGY
Typology 2
Fishing and
seaweed
Typology 3 Rice
and bandeng
ponds
Typology 4
Diverse
agriculture and
forest use
Typology 5 Rice
and tobacco
Typology 6
Diverse
livestock and
cropping
Typology 7
Diverse
cropping and
coastal activity
Projection
Year
Typology 1
Fishing
Rainfall change (%)
2030
-5.0
-4.8
-4.9
-4.3
-1.6
-6.0
-9.3
NTB
-5.2
2060
-3.2
-3.2
-4.0
-0.8
0.3
-4.8
-9.3
-3.7
2090
-7.3
-7.9
-8.2
-5.5
-3.7
-8.2
-12.3
-7.3
2030
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.9
2060
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
2090
3.2
3.2
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.3
2030
0.03
0.01
0.09
0.01
0.00
0.03
0.00
0.03
2050
0.07
0.03
0.25
0.03
0.01
0.07
0.01
0.07
2100
0.16
0.06
0.55
0.07
0.01
0.16
0.02
0.16
2030
26.7
27.9
26.0
27.6
26.4
25.4
25.6
26.3
2050
42.9
45.5
41.6
44.0
42.0
39.5
40.0
41.8
2100
71.4
74.6
69.9
72.8
70.4
67.4
68.0
70.1
2010
126.3
89.5
508.1
470.5
893.8
106.2
255.1
205.8
2030
160.0
114.4
640.4
600.4
1130.2
133.1
320.5
260.1
2050
180.4
130.1
719.5
677.5
1269.4
148.1
357.2
291.8
2100
216.5
156.2
863.4
813.0
1523.3
177.7
428.6
350.2
0
Temperature change ( C)
Sea level rise (% area of
coastal kecamatan)
Population growth (%)
Population density
(people per ha)
68
APPENDIX IV: 2030 IMPACTS AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY FOR TYPOLOGIES 2, 4, 6
EGS Importance (%)
0
Brown algae (Sargassum), Inshore
Fishing, Inshore
Cattle, Dryland
Peanut, Dryland
Candle nut, Forest
Garlic, Dryland
Ecotourism, Forest
Ecotourism, Coastal
Mung bean, Dryland
Mangrove for timber, Coastal
Pearl farm, Inshore
Cassava, Dryland
Vegetables, Wetland
Peanut, Wetland
Onion, Dryland
Durian, Forest
Prawn pond, Wetland
Pineapple, Dryland
Fishing, Offshore
Banana, Dryland
Salt pond, Wetland
Chicken, Dryland
Soya bean, Dryland
Timber, Forest
5
10
15 -0.3
Wetland, Rice production
Inshore, Brown algae (Sargassum)
Inshore, Fishing
Dryland, Cattle
Dryland, Peanut
Forest, Candle nut
Dryland, Garlic
Forest, Ecotourism
Coastal, Ecotourism
Dryland, Mung bean
Coastal, Mangrove for timber
Inshore, Pearl farm
Dryland, Cassava
Wetland, Vegetables
Wetland, Peanut
Dryland, Onion
Dryland, Custard apple
Forest, Durian
Wetland, Prawn pond
Dryland, Pineapple
River, spring water, Agriculture (Irrigation)
River, spring water, Drinking water
Offshore, Fishing
Ground water, Drinking water
Ground water, Agriculture (irrigation)
Dryland, Banana
Wetland, Salt pond
Dryland, Chicken
Dryland, Soya bean
Forest, Timber
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
Financial
Social
Human
Political
Natural
Physical
Impacts
Climate
Rainfall change
Sea level rise
Ocean acidification
Human population
Exploitation
Land use change
Pollution
The current top 30 most important EGS (left), potential impact for each EGS in 2030 (centre), and relative levels of adaptive capacity today according to the six
capitals (right) for Typology 2 Fishing and seaweed.
EGS Importance (%)
0
Peanut, Wetland
Prawn pond, Wetland
Onion, Wetland
Tobacco, Wetland
Maize, Wetland
Banana, Dryland
Cattle, Dryland
Goat, Wetland
Cattle, Wetland
Pineapple, Dryland
Soya bean, Wetland
Chicken, Dryland
Coconut, Dryland
Chicken, Wetland
Timber, Forest
Onion, Dryland
Cashew, Dryland
Honey bee, Forest
Buffalo, Wetland
Mung bean, Dryland
Ecotourism, Forest
Banana, Forest
Mango, Forest
5
10
15 -0.5
-0.4
Peanut, Wetland
Prawn pond, Wetland
Onion, Wetland
Tobacco, Wetland
Maize, Wetland
Banana, Dryland
Cattle, Dryland
Goat, Wetland
Cattle, Wetland
Pineapple, Dryland
Soya bean, Wetland
Chicken, Dryland
Coconut, Dryland
Chicken, Wetland
Timber, Forest
Onion, Dryland
Cashew, Dryland
Honey bee, Forest
Buffalo, Wetland
Mung bean, Dryland
Ecotourism, Forest
Banana, Forest
Mango, Forest
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
Financial
Social
Human
Political
Natural
Physical
Impacts
Climate
Rainfall change
Sea level rise
Ocean acidification
Human population
Exploitation
Land use change
Pollution
capitals (right) for Typology 4 Diverse agriculture and forest use.
70
EGS Importance (%)
0
Prawn pond, Wetland
Mung bean, Dryland
Onion, Dryland
Pineapple, Dryland
Cattle, Wetland
Maize, Wetland
Buffalo, Dryland
Soya bean, Wetland
Coconut, Dryland
Vegetables, Wetland
Red rice, Wetland
Maize, Dryland
Peanut, Wetland
Goat, Wetland
Salt pond, Wetland
Tobacco, Dryland
Cassava, Dryland
Chicken, Dryland
Avodado, Dryland
Tamarind, Dryland
Goat, Dryland
2
4
6
8 -0.3
Prawn pond, Wetland
Mung bean, Dryland
Onion, Dryland
Pineapple, Dryland
Cattle, Wetland
Maize, Wetland
Buffalo, Dryland
Soya bean, Wetland
Coconut, Dryland
Vegetables, Wetland
Red rice, Wetland
Maize, Dryland
Peanut, Wetland
Goat, Wetland
Salt pond, Wetland
Tobacco, Dryland
Cassava, Dryland
Chicken, Dryland
Avodado, Dryland
Tamarind, Dryland
Goat, Dryland
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
Financial
Social
Human
Political
Natural
Physical
Impacts
Climate
Rainfall change
Sea level rise
Ocean acidification
Human population
Exploitation
Land use change
Pollution
capitals (right) for Typology 6 Diverse livestock and cropping.
CONTACTS:
FURTHER INFORMATION:
Professor Yusuf Sutaryono
University of Mataram
Email: ysf_25@yahoo.com
Mobile: (+62) 0818369007
http://www.ausaid.gov.au/hottopics/topic.cfm?I
D=2707_8209_4232_9569_1218
http://www.csiro.au/multimedia/Indonesia-AndClimate-Change
Dr. James Butler
CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship
Email: James.Butler@csiro.au
Mobile: (+61) 0437030120
http://www.csiro.au/news/Improvedclimatechange-projections-SE-Asia
http://www.rfdalliance.com.au/site
72

NTB Scenario Planning Workshop Report - ccap

Transcription

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