Sporting Goods in Australia: An Industry Snapshot
Transcription
Sporting Goods in Australia: An Industry Snapshot
Sporting Goods in Australia: An Industry Snapshot March 2012 ASGA Industry Research. A snapshot of the sporting goods industry in Australia. ASGA | Industry Snapshot Research 2 Foreword! The Australian Sporting Goods industry currently faces a complex but exciting set of operating conditions: a tentatively improving global economy, a historically high dollar, rapid changes in consumers’ online and offline buying habits and evidence of evolving attitudes and preferences towards sporting apparel and footwear. These factors represent strategic challenges but also powerful opportunities for the industry. To assist members in making the very best decisions, ASGA partnered with Empirica Research to create this industry report. The chief goal: To create an actionable roadmap for navigating the current economic/industry conditions and for remaining ahead of the curve in addressing shifts in the Australian consumer’s needs and preferences. We invite you to explore the report and hope the findings help to inform your decision making in the year ahead. David Neal, Ph.D Anna Coster, M.A. Cassie Govan, Ph.D Empirica Research empiricaresearch.com.au 3 Brad Kitschke Executive Director Australian Sporting Goods Association asga.com.au Sources of data and structure of the report! The research for this report was conducted between January and March 2012, using two complementary research methods. The first was “primary research,” which included the analysis of data from two surveys: The quarterly ASGA industry member survey and a survey of Australian consumer behaviour and attitudes in the sporting goods space (survey conducted by Empirica Research, February-March 2012). We also conducted “secondary research,” which involved a comprehensive literature review of existing government (e.g., ABS) data, recent industry reports, and academic publications. 1. Primary research... • ASGA industry member survey (quarterly) • ASGA consumer survey of 1000 Australians, conducted by Empirica Research (Feb-Mar 2012) 2. Secondary research (i.e., literature review)... • ABS and other Government Data • Other industry reports • Academic literature 4 Sources of data and structure of the report These primary and secondary methods were used to generate data on four key content areas, shown in the figure below. These content areas make up the four main sections of the report. 5 1. Macro economic data • Secondary: Government data and industry reports 2. Industry sales data • Primary: ASGA member survey • Secondary: Government data 3. Consumer attitudes and buying behavior • Primary: ASGA/Empirica consumer survey • Secondary research: Industry reports 4. Trends in sports and exercise participation • Primary: ASGA/Empirica consumer survey • Secondary research Report contents! Section Subsection Macroeconomic conditions Executive summary 8 Global GDP Forecasts 9 Australian dollar 10 Consumer sentiment 11 Business sentiment 12 Labour market 13 Industry metrics 14 ABS data: Sporting equipment 15 Retail sales data 17 Wholesale data 18 Footwear drill down 19 Compression drill down 20 Gold drill down 21 Consumer attitudes and buying behaviour 25 Main exercise segments and brand metrics 27 Purchase destinations and motivations 31 From the track to the streets 43 Consumers and counterfeit sporting goods 49 Trends in Australian sports participation Trends in sport and exercise Concluding remarks About Empirica Research 6 Page 7 55 56 60 62 Macroeconomic conditions ! An overview of key macroeconomic factors impacting the sporting goods industry. ASGA | Industry Snapshot Research 7 Macroeconomic conditions Executive summary • Most domestic and global indicators point to a continued, albeit tentative, global recovery marked by growth rates slightly below historical trend lines. • Consensus estimates for the AUD suggest it will to continue trade at or above parity with the USD through 2012. • Consumer sentiment in Australia, although having made up ground in recent months, sits close to its historical average of 100. • Similarly, business sentiment sits close to its historical average. This applies to measures of (a) business confidence, (b) business conditions, and (c) capacity utilisation. • Labor market conditions remain “steady,” but Westpac predicts unemployment will rise to 5.75% from current levels (5.2%) over the next 3-6 months. • Employment in retail trade declined by 20,000 in 2011. • Predicted growth in the Australian retail sector through 2015 ranges from 4.5% p.a. (Morgan Stanley) to 3.0% (National Retail Association). 8 Macroeconomic conditions Global conditions Consensus forecasts from the IMF, Westpac and NAB point to a tentative recovery in global economic conditions. The latest GDP forecasts through 2013 for Australia and other key economies are presented below. Real GDP % ann United States 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012f 2013f 1.9 -0.3 -3.5 3.0 1.7 1.7 2.1 China Japan India Other East Asia Europe Australia New Zealand 14.2 2.1 10.0 6.1 9.6 -1.7 6.2 3.2 9.2 -5.7 6.8 0.4 10.3 4.7 10.1 7.7 9.3 -0.8 7.0 4.3 7.8 1.6 6.0 1.9 8.7 2.0 8.1 4.8 2.8 4.7 2.8 0.3 2.5 -0.1 -4.2 1.4 -2.0 1.8 2.6 1.6 1.5 2.0 1.6 -1.0 3.0 2.8 0.3 3.5 3.8 World 5.4 2.8 -0.7 5.1 3.9 2.8 4.0 Source: International Monetary Fund and Westpac Economics 9 Macroeconomic conditions The Australian dollar! As global growth conditions have improved, the Australian dollar has risen sharply. The figures below show the AUD’s performance against the Yen, USD, Euro and New Zealand dollar. The latest forecasts from Westpac Economics as at February 2012 are that “the Australian dollar and commodity prices are set to fall through to the third quarter of 2012 prior to a ‘recovery’ in the second half.” Their specific 2012 predictions for the AUD are: Mid 2012 AUD forecast • = parity with the USD End of 2012 AUD forecast • = 1.06 (USD) Source: Westpac Economics 10 Macroeconomic conditions Australian consumer sentiment! Consumer sentiment in Australia currently rests very close to its long term average level of 100. Note: Australian Consumer SentimentAverage since 1980 = 100 Source: Melbourne Institute and Westpac Economics Click here for the latest consumer sentiment data. 11 Macroeconomic conditions Australian business sentiment • Business conditions measure: Survey data integrating 3 key variables: profitability, employment and trading conditions. Zero point represents average since 1989. • Business confidence measure: “Excluding normal seasonal changes, how do you expect the business conditions facing your industry in the next month to change?” Zero point represents average since 1989. • Capacity utilisation measure: 100 percent Utilisation represents “maximum desirable level of output given existing capital equipment”. Source: The NAB Business Survey 12 Macroeconomic conditions Employment • • • As of the February 2012 jobs report, unemployment sat at 5.2%. Factoring in lower participation rates and lower population growth, this figure implies that there has been no job growth in Australia since the beginning of 2011. As a percentage of total employment, the retail and wholesale trade industry remains close to its average for the last 5 years, accounting for 14.5% of all employment (see lower left panel). However, retail trade lost almost 20,000 jobs in 2011, second only to Agriculture/ forestry/fishing and manufacturing (see lower right panel). Share of total employment by industry Sources: ABS, NAB and Westpac Economics 13 Employment growth in 2011 by industry 000’s of jobs gained/ lost State of the Industry. ! An overview of the Sporting Goods and Apparel industry. ASGA | Industry Snapshot Research 14 ABS data on the Australian sporting goods market ABS data allow modelling of the sports equipment market, but not apparel and footwear! • Australian government data (e.g., retail and wholesale trade statistics) typically provide limited insight for the sporting goods industry. This is because the ABS generally does not break out sporting apparel/footwear from other apparel and footwear categories. However, the Australian Household Expenditure Survey, conducted every 5 years, provides detailed statistics on sporting equipment purchases made by Australian households. • The figure below shows $ spent each year by the average Australian household across sporting equipment categories for the two most recent periods available (2003/2004 and 2009/2010). • Across this period, the annual value of the equipment increased by 15%. However, we note that CPI increased by 19% over this period, indicating an overall decline in the market. This decline may partly reflect temporary effects of the GFC on discretionary spending. 2003/2004 896 M. p.a. 2009/2010 1.032B p.a. (! 15%) (note: CPI rose 19% over this period) 15 Sporting goods industry sales data The ASGA Industry Member Survey Highly detailed sales data are available in reports based on ASGA’s quarterly industry member survey. Members provide detailed information on units and total sales revenues for specific categories of sports apparel, footwear, and equipment and accessories. Market analyses based on these data are available to ASGA members on a subscription basis. For more information about the available data sets, please click here or visit: http://www.asga.com.au/sample-market-intelligence-surveys In this section, we provide a top line analysis of key trends from these reports. Specifically, we present: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 16 Quarterly retail sales data: Footwear and apparel Quarterly wholesale data by unit type Footwear drill down Compression drill down Golf drill down ASGA quarterly retail sales trends: Source: ASGA/10 Thousand Feet 17 -#*'! -,)"! ,+,$#&! -,%(! -,(%! "*#$+&! "%%$''! -(*#! -(&(! -(%%! ""#$,,! -,)#! "(&$&)! -,)+! -#'+! -#()! "(+$,*! -,&&! -(&)! "*+$))! -,(%! "'($')! -,)+! -(+'! -(&,! $!!"!!# ($!"!!# (!!"!!# '$!"!!# '!!"!!# &$!"!!# &!!"!!# %$!"!!# %!!"!!# $!"!!# !"!!# Footwear Sales Apparel Sales Total Sales 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Sales) ""#$%&! -,))! !"##"$%&' Footwear and apparel ASGA quarterly wholesale trends: Cut by unit type and $ sold/units sold Sporting goods industry sales data %!"!#*#+,-# ,)$,)!-!./0! (+$&)!-!./0! ($&)!-!./0! +$+%!-!./0! '!"!#*#+,-# ,,$)"!-!./0! (&$%'!-!./0! *$,(!-!./0! )$#(!-!./0! $!"!#*#+,-# "%$,(!-!./0! ++$",!-!./0! "+$(&!-!./0! ,,$)(!-!./0! .!"!#*#+,-# "%$,%!-!./0! ++$,'!-!./0! ,&$+&!-!./0! ,($+#!-!./0! /!"!#*#+,-# (($+,!-!./0! %,$"#!-!./0! (($,,!-!./0! ,#$)(!-!./0! $ sold (($#+!-!./0! )&$'(!-!./0! ,#$&&!-!./0! ,+$#*!-!./0! Lifestyle Fashion Non Licensed Branded Licensed Accessories Note: Data from July 2011 reported quarterly; data prior to July 2011 reported half-yearly Source: ASGA/10 THOUSAND FEET ,$,+!./0! "$(,!./0! ,,&$%,1! ,$,%!./0! *&*$('1! ,$&&!./0! ,'&$#&1! ,$'!./0! %"!#+,-# ($)+!./0! *+"$),1! ,$))!./0! &"!#+,-# ,$,&!./0! '"!#+,-# ,$)(!./0! #$#*!./0! *)+$(,1! "$"'!./0! $ units ($&,!./0! )%+$")1! "$',!./0! ("!#+,-# ,$(%!./0! $"!#+,-# ,$&#!./0! #$,(!./0! #(#$#%1! "$(&!./0! )%!!!!!!!# Source: ASGA/10 THOUSAND FEET !# Lifestyle Fashion Core apparel includes: Track suits, separate pants, jackets, T-Shirts, singlets/tanks, sweat tops and shorts. Non-licensed brand core apparel includes: Track suits, separate pants, jackets, T-Shirts, singlets/tanks, sweat tops and shorts. Licensed Core apparel includes: AFL - jumpers & guernseys, NRL - jumpers & guernseys, ARU - jumpers & guernseys, Soccer, NBA and Cricket Australia Accessories Core apparel includes: Bags, caps and socks 18 ASGA quarterly footwear drill down: Sales cut by footwear category Highlighted Footwear Findings (ASGA/ 10 Thousand Feet) • After decreasing for 3 consecutive quarters (-6% in Jul – Sep 2011 compared to Apr – Jun 201, -7% in Apr – Jun 2011 compared to Jan - Mar 2011, -3% Jan – Mar 2011 compared to Oct – Dec 2010), footwear sales went up 20% in Oct – Dec 2011 compared to Jul – Sep 2011. • Average selling price was higher in Oct – Dec 2011 than one year before ($49.05 in Oct – Dec 2011 compared to $47.04 in Oct – Dec 2010). 70.0 $ MIL 60.0 $ MIL FY 2010/11 Q3 Jan - Mar FY 2010/11 Q4 Apr - Jun FY 2011/12 Q1 Jul - Sep FY 2011/12 Q2 Oct - Dec 50.0 $ MIL 40.0 $ MIL 30.0 $ MIL 20.0 $ MIL 10.0 $ MIL 0 Cross Basketb Running Training all FY 2010/11 Q3 Jan - Mar Football Football Court - Court - Screw Indoor Outdoor Moulde in Sole d Sole $13,453, $49,062, $2,228,8 $53,256 Turf Shoes Netball $1,230,1 $20,886, $278,371 $787,601 $3,372,8 Track and Field Cleated Ath/ Leisure $5,577 $22,714, $2,614,8 $649,068 $134,070 $490,927 Walking Outdoor Sandals FY 2010/11 Q4 Apr - Jun $15,250, $58,551, $2,201,4 $39,341 $664,165 $2,323,0 $54,478 $191,518 $704,012 $12,692 $25,828, $2,299,4 $519,762 $507,639 $258,728 19 FY 2011/12 Q1 Jul - Sep $12,411, FY 2011/12 Q2 Oct - Dec $13,431, $59,104, $45,681, $2,557,0 $87,320 $1,461,4 $4,009,4 $20,725 $557,239 $864,441 $62,877 $27,158, $3,163,1 $79,252 $1,739,8 $12,332, $59,128 $259,747 $1,639,8 $7,106 $1,711,1 $3,042,8 $994,199 $2,043,2 $26,721, $1,708,0 $1,377,5 $266,792 $1,034,9 ASGA quarterly compression wear drill down Cut by gender and adult/child 557.66K 1.02 $ MIL Note: Data from July 2011 reported quarterly; data prior to July 2011 reported half-yearly 634.38K 716.59K 250.76K Children ($) 673.76K 945.80K 159.34K 621.40K Women ($) 747.01K 500.0K 1.07 $ MIL 860.93K 1.0 $ MIL 202.36K 1.50 $ MIL 2.41 $ MIL 2.0 $ MIL 382.81K Men ($) 2.50 $ MIL 737.93K $ sold 3.0 $ MIL Source: ASGA/10 THOUSAND FEET 120 0 Note: Jul-Sep 2011 and Oct - Dec 2011 figures in the report are raw data provided by members and do not include uplift. 20 Source: ASGA/10 THOUSAND FEET 64 0 27 35 12.84K 59 27 13 25 38 24.24K 50 28 20 34 40 10.93K 60 24 80 0 100 108 $ units Thousands 0 ASGA annual golf drill down (figure 1 of 3) Cut by product category Highlighted Golf Findings (ASGA/ 10 Thousand Feet) • In 2011 golf apparel sales increased 5% compared to 2010. Non-licensed branded products increased (+8.8%) while accessories dropped (-9.8%). • In 2011 shoes kept decreasing (-4% compared to 2010) after an -11% drop in 2010 compared to 2009. This 2011 drop was driven by a decrease in sales of shoes costing $90 or more (-39% compared to 2010) while shoes under $90 sales went up 16% compared to 2010. • Graphite Individual golf clubs remain relatively stable compared to 2010, while Steel golf clubs sales are behind in 2011 compared to 2010 (-2%). • Golf bags dropped 11% in 2011 compared to 2010 while gloves went down 9% compared to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ource: ASGA/10 THOUSAND FEET ASGA annual golf drill down (figure 2 of 3) Cut by product category Highlighted Findings (ASGA/ 10 Thousand Feet) • Golf bags dropped 11% in 2011 compared to 2010 while gloves went down 9% compared to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ource: ASGA/10 THOUSAND FEET ASGA annual golf drill down (figure 3 of 3) Cut by product category %"!#*#+,-# !# 23 "$,'!-!./0! +$(*!-!./0! "$,,!-!./0! #$'&!-!./0! "$(*!-!./0! )$&*!-!./0! #$'&!-!./0! #$(,!-!./0! *$)+!-!./0! ($*'!-!./0! *$')!-!./0! 23456!75DK5B9!?956;!F4996! ,$&&!-!./0! &"!#*#+,-# 23456!75DK5B9!?956;!E857<=49! "$()!-!./0! '"!#*#+,-# &%&$&%-!1! ("!#*#+,-# ,$)"!-!./0! $"!#*#+,-# ,$&"!-!./0! 0"!#*#+,-# ,$#&!-!./0! ."!#*#+,-# ($%,!-!./0! *$),!-!./0! 1"!#*#+,-# 23456!;94;!F4996! *$,+!-!./0! 23456!;94;!E857<=49! Consumer attitudes and behavior in the ! sporting goods and attire space ASGA | Industry Snapshot Research 24 The ASGA Sporting Goods Consumer Survey Overview of the survey The ASGA Consumer survey was designed and conducted by Empirica Research in February and March 2012. The study was a nationally representative survey of 1000 Australians, oversampling people who exercise or play sport once or more often each week. Thus, the survey findings closely map onto the “average Australian sporting goods consumer.” The survey was designed to address the following core content areas: 1. Core exercise segments: Australians’ main forms of exercise cut by age and gender; brand awareness, ownership, and loyalty metrics. 2. What, where and why are people buying? Major purchase destinations and motivations. 3. How are Australians attitudes towards sportswear evolving? 4. Counterfeit sporting goods in Australia: Will Australians buy in? 25 The ASGA Sporting Goods Consumer Survey Sample and Methodology • • • 26 The sample was nationally representative across gender and state/territory. Exercisers were oversampled (90% of the sample exercised once per week or more). The survey was conducted in February and March 2012. The total sample size was 1000. GENDER % STATE % Male 50 NSW 33 Female 50 VIC 26 QLD 20 AGE % WA 8 18-24 23 ACT 1 TAS 2 25-34 22 NT 1 35-44 21 SA 8 45-54 18 55 or older 17 Part 1: The lay of the land ! “main form of exercise” and core metrics of Segmentation analysis of Australians’ brand awareness, ownership and loyalty. ASGA | Industry Snapshot Research 27 Segmentation analysis: Australians’ main form of exercise Top 10 forms of exercise cut by gender and age What is your main form of exercise? 18-24 Years 28 25-34 Years 35-44Years Segmentation analysis: Australians’ main form of exercise Top 10 forms of exercise cut by gender and age What is your main form of exercise? 45-54 Years 29 55+ Years Brand awareness, ownership and loyalty metrics Which brands have you heard of? 2XU 2XU Adidas Asics Black Diamond Bonds Brook BSc Everlast Fila Icebreaker Katmandu KSwiss Lonsdale Lorna Jane Lululemon Merrell Mountain Designs Mountain HardWear New Balance Nike North Face Outdoor Performance Patagonia Performax Puma Reebok Running Bare Russell Athletic Saucony Skins Snow Gum Speedo Supre Target Under Armour Vibram Asics Black Diamond Bonds Brooks Everlast Fila Icebreaker Katmandu KSwiss Lonsdale Lorna Jane Lululemon Merrell Mountain Designs New Balance Nike North Face Outdoor Performance Performax Puma Reebok Running Bare Russell Athletic Saucony Skins Snow Gum Speedo Supre Target Under Armour Vibram 25.00% 50.00% 75.00% 100.00% Which brand is your favourite? 2XU Adidas Asics Black Diamond Bonds Brooks Everlast Fila Icebreaker Katmandu Lonsdale Lorna Jane Lululemon Merrell Mountain Designs New Balance Nike North Face Patagonia Performax Puma Reebok Russell Athletic Saucony Skins Speedo Supre Target Under Armour Other Adidas 0% 30 Which brands do you currently own? 0% 25.00% 50.00% 75.00% 100.00% 0% 25.00% 50.00% 75.00% 100.00% Part 2: Where, what, and why people are buying? ! Market share analysis for consumers’ most recent sporting goods purchase; preferred buying destinations across sporting goods/apparel product categories; key drivers/motives for buying at each destination ASGA | Industry Snapshot Research 31 Purchase destinations % of consumers buying at each destination and top 5 market share for each destination Where did you purchase your most recent clothing item to wear during sports or exercise? Bricks and mortar: Online 7.6% 92.4% 32 Speciality sports store: General clothing store: 48.3% 44.1% Destination Market Share Rebel Sport 36% Amart Allsports 19% Athletes Foot 5% Lorna Jane 4% Sports Co 3% Destination Online, but not sure where based: OS site: Australian site: 3.9% 3.3% 0.4% Market Share KMART 29% Target 27% BigW 15% Myers 4% Cotton On Body 2% Destination oo.com.au Market Share 10% Destination Market Share ebay.com 26% Amart AllSports 5% wiggle.com 16% Catch of the Day 5% Nike 16% Rebel 5% Paul’s 5% Purchase destinations % of consumers buying at each destination cut by age group Where did you purchase your most recent clothing item to wear during sports or exercise? Key finding • Online buying rates for sports clothing are highest in middle-aged consumers (around 10% among 35-55 years olds), and are lower in younger and older consumers. 33 Purchase destinations % of consumers buying at each destination and top 5 market share for each destination Where did you purchase your most recent pair of sneakers? Bricks and mortar: Online 11.5% 88.4% Speciality sports store: General dept. store: 61.3% 27.1% Destination 34 Market Share Destination Australian site: OS site: 3.6% 6.8% Online, but not sure where based: 1.1% Market Share Destination Market Share Destination Market Share Rebel Sports Amart Allsports 29% k mart 19% Ebay 11% wiggle.co.uk 17% 13% BigW 13% New balance 11% Amazon.com 11% Athlete’s foot 12% Target 8% ozsales.com.au 11% Ebay 11% Footlocker 6% Haris Scarfe 7% Rivers 11% niketown 11% Nike 4% Myers 6% Eastbay 8% pay for less 6% Purchase destinations % of consumers buying at each destination cut by age group Where did you purchase your most recent pair of sneakers? Key finding • Online buying rates for sneakers/runners are significantly higher in younger consumers, having reached 15% among 18-24 year olds (vs. 6% in 55+ consumers) 35 Drill down into online purchasing: Sporting goods compared to other retail categories How does Australians’ online purchasing of sporting goods compare to their online purchasing in other retail categories? The figure below integrates the Empirica/ASGA survey findings with online purchase rates found in other retail categories. The estimates for these additional retail categories come from research conducted by Citibank (2010) and Morgan Stanley (2011). Sources: Empirica Research, Morgan Stanley, Citibank, National Retail Association 36 Drill down into online purchasing: Sporting goods and the Low Value Threshold Is the “low value threshold” on imports driving Australians to buy sporting goods from overseas websites? • Our survey estimates of Australians’ rates of overseas online purchasing of sporting goods (3.3% for apparel; 6.8% for footwear) are in line with estimates generated by analysing air cargo consignments in the “low value” category (LVCs). • (LVCs are foreign goods imported in consignments that are valued at $1000 AUD or less and hence avoid GST, customs duties, and other associated fees.) • According to the Centre for International Economics (CIE, 2011), 7% of air cargo consignments destined for individual Australian homes are in the “sporting goods” category. • We note that an additional 41% of consignments to individuals are in the “textile and fashion” category. A proportion of this category presumably includes sporting apparel items. • Thus, the actual percentage of overseas online purchases in sporting goods/apparel likely exceeds 7%, and perhaps by a significant margin. • Ernst and Young estimate that the low value threshold will cost up to 33,400 retail jobs in Australia through 2015 and will result in forgone GDP of between 3.9b and 6.5b. Sources: CIE (2011) and Ernst and Young (2012) 37 Consumer motives/drivers for buying at each destination Respondents described where they would buy a variety of sports apparel and footwear items. They then described why they would buy at their chosen destination. We coded these motives to identify the top drivers for buying each product type at each destination. These data are presented below… Top motivations for buying sneakers at each destination… 38 Consumer motives/drivers for buying at each destination Top motivations for buying compression wear at each destination 39 Consumer motives/drivers for buying at each destination Top motivations for buying shorts at each destination 40 Consumer motives/drivers for buying at each destination Top motivations for buying tops at each destination 41 Consumer motives/drivers for buying at each destination Top motivations for buying tennis rackets at each destination 42 Part 3: From the track to the streets ! The shift towards “sportswear as streetwear ” – where and for whom is sportswear acceptable outside the exercise context? ASGA | Industry Snapshot Research 43 Sports attire outside the exercise context Consumers are becoming more relaxed about “where and when” they wear sports attire in non-exercise related settings/activities. This attitudinal shift represents a major opportunity to expand the category. To provide hard metrics on this shift, we measured whether consumers think it’s “OK” versus “not OK” to wear a range of different sports outfits in a range of different settings, from doing housework to having coffee with friends. Key finding • Compression wear is not accepted outside an exercise context. 44 Sports attire outside the exercise context Key finding • Sports shorts and tops readily accepted by consumers outside the exercise context, especially in the home setting. 45 Sports attire outside the exercise context Key finding • Tracksuit readily accepted by female consumers outside the exercise context; acceptance more mixed among male consumers. 46 Sports attire outside the exercise context Note: The yoga outfit question was only asked of female respondents Key finding • Yoga outfit readily accepted as housewear by female consumers, but not readily accepted as streetwear. 47 Sports attire outside the exercise context Gender and age matter! • The figures below represent averages across all of the non exercise related settings (i.e., walking the dog, coffee with friends, housework etc). Thus, a higher score means it’s more acceptable to wear each outfit when doing non exercise related activities. • The figures show that age and gender interact. • As men get older, they see sports attire as more permissible in non-exercise settings. • As women get older, their attitudes remain relatively stable for most categories, but grow less permissive for yoga outfits. (Note: this pattern does not apply to compression wear) 48 Part 3: Counterfeit sporting goods: Will Australian consumers buy in? ! Consumer perceptions of counterfeit availability; willingness to buy counterfeit; cues that signal counterfeit to consumers; attitudes towards greater government intervention. ASGA | Industry Snapshot Research 49 Counterfeit sportswear Perceptions of counterfeit availability in Australia Australian consumers are generally aware that counterfeit sporting goods are available here. We asked them how likely it is that counterfeit sporting goods are sold at each of the destinations shown in the figure below… Key findings: • Consumers accurately perceive the presence of counterfeit sporting goods at Australian street markets. • Consumers may underestimate the presence of counterfeit at generic online retailers and generic sports stores. • Consumers may overestimate the presence of counterfeit at major retailers (e.g., Rebel) both bricks and mortar and online. • Despite awareness of counterfeit’s presence, consumers underestimate their personal exposure to it. (See low likelihood ratings for “the places I shop”). 50 Counterfeit sportswear Willingness to buy counterfeit Respondents were presented with an image of an Asics gel runner and were asked to imagine they found a counterfeit version that they felt was about the same quality as the real product. We then asked them what discount from the RRP of $180 they would need to buy the counterfeit version. Respondents could also tick “I wouldn’t buy the counterfeit at any price” Key findings: • Overall, only 24% of consumers indicate they would not be willing to buy the counterfeit Asics under any level of discount. • Willingness to buy counterfeit is highest in young consumers (under 24 years), where less than 15% wouldn’t buy the counterfeit under any level of discount. 51 Counterfeit sportswear in Australia Counterfeit cues – bricks and mortar setting When buying sporting goods/apparel in a store, what are the main cues that signal the product might be counterfeit? (Note: word size indicated frequency of mention by consumers) 52 Counterfeit sportswear in Australia Counterfeit cues – online When buying sporting goods/apparel online, what are the main cues that signal the product might be counterfeit? (Note: word size indicated frequency of mention by consumers) 53 Counterfeit sportswear in Australia Counterfeit – general attitudes and policy support Key findings: • Consumers view small Australian retailers and major brands as the major victims of counterfeit sporting goods (see Figure top left) • On average, consumers support stronger Government action on preventing counterfeit from entering the country, although not by large margins (see Figure bottom left). • A majority support lowering import tariffs, although the strength of this support is modest (see Figure bottom left). 54 Trends in sports participation ! Participation rates in organised and non-organised sport and exercise ASGA | Industry Snapshot Research 55 Trends in Australian Exercise and Sports Participation ABS Time Use Studies reveal declining minutes per day spent on sports/exercise! Activity 1997 2006 Males Females Males Females Sport and outdoor activity (mins/day) 33 20 25 17 Total free time (mins/day) 328 304 308 284 Top forms of exercise and % participation in pop. over 15 years !"#$%&'()*!+(!,"$-(./0(1&%$&.2"/'()(3-.232%.4("5&$56&7("8()#3-$.46.(9:;<<=(( 56 Australian participation rates in sport and exercise Percentage and raw numbers of participants: Organised and nonorganised sports/exercise. !"#$%&'()*!+(!,"$-(./0(1&%$&.2"/'()(3-.232%.4("5&$56&7("8()#3-$.46.(:;<<(( 57 Organised sports and physical activity Trends over time… • • • Over the past decade, the percentage of the population participating in organised sport has declined from 27% in 2001 to 26% in 2010. Total Australian population aged 15 years and over: 17.34 M (100%) Due to population growth however, the raw number of participants in organised sport has increased slightly. Involved in organised sport or physical activity: Males’ participation in playing roles has dropped 3% points in the last decade, to 24%, but has remained stable in females (20%). 4.52M (26%) 12.82M (74%) Involved in a playing role: Involved in a nonplaying role: 3.82 M (22%) 1.56M (9%) Involved in a playing role only: 2.95 M (17%) Involved in both a playing and nonplaying role: !"#$%&'()*!+(>/5"45&?&/-(6/(@$A./63&0(!,"$-(./0(BCD36%.4()%256-D( 58 Not involved in organised sport or physical activity: .87M (5%) Involved in nonplaying role only: .69M (4%) Organised sports and physical activity Quick Facts: The 4.52 million Australians and organised sport are! • More likely to be involved if they were born in Australia (30% involved) than born in another English speaking country (25%) or a non-English speaking country (11%). • More likely to be involved if they’re male (29%) than female (24%) • Less likely to be involved if they live in a capital city (25%) than outside one (28%) • More likely to be involved if they’re employed (30%) than unemployed (26%) • 9% receive some type of payment for their involvement • Among those in playing roles, 49% are involved for 3-9 hours per week • Among those in non-playing roles, 41% have completed a course or qualification relevant to their role and 60% are involved with school or junior sports 59 Concluding remarks! ASGA | Industry Snapshot Research 60 Concluding remarks ASGA and Empirica Research hope the findings presented here will assist readers in navigating the Australian sporting goods market in the year ahead. We invite you to make contact to access additional resources. For information regarding ASGA’s proprietary market intelligence surveys, or for inquiries about ASGA membership, please contact:: The Australian Sporting Goods Association Brad Kitschke - Executive Director 767 Springvale Rd Mulgrave, VIC 3170 asga.com.au For questions regarding the consumer survey presented in this report, or for other research-related questions, please contact: Empirica Research Dr. David Neal – Founding Partner david@empiricaresearch.com.au 214 Kerr Street Fitzroy, VIC 3065 empiricaresearch.com.au 61 ! ABOUT EMPIRICA RESEARCH 62 About Empirica Research Empirica injects academic, evidence-based research into commercial projects. Empirica Research, based in Melbourne and Miami, is a full service consumer and social research firm. We have diverse range of clients across Australia and the US. We offer tailored research solutions, innovative techniques, and our unique “Think Tank” of leading marketing professors from around the world. We maintain strong ties to the academic world, publish in academic journals, and our Founding Directors have PhDs. Our work is diverse, but our philosophy across these projects is the same: inject academic, evidence-based research into commercial projects while keeping a clear focus on real-world, actionable insights. Cassie Govan, Ph.D. Founding Partner David Neal, Ph.D. Founding Partner empiricaresearch.com.au 63 Anna Coster, M.A. Director of Consumer Research Our clients include… 64 Our work has been featured in… 65 Thank you. ! ASGA | Industry Snapshot Research 66