A Story of Gaia - Online - Introduction Overview

A Story of Gaia
by Alder Stone Fuller
-------Overview
Introduction : What is 'A Story of Gaia'?
Part 1 : Networks & Systems : Principles
Part 2 : Science of Gaia : Geophysiology
Part 3 : Climate Change : Understanding
Logistics of the seminar : When & How
www.AlderStone3.com
A note about fonts & symbols
Key ideas in green font will be explained
clearly and thoroughly in the seminar
(but not necessarily in this overview).
Underlined words in green font are links
(except this example, which is not).
Important notes are indicated by this color.
Very important notes are indicated by this color.
'mya' = millions of years ago; 'bya' = billions of years ago
The symbol ' → ' means 'leads to' or 'causes'.
Clicking the symbol
will play
audio narration about a topic
(if mouse over → pointing finger).
(Note: These are not yet active, but will be soon ...)
About Me : Alder Stone Fuller
Professional
BS : invertebrate biology (U Memphis, 1973)
MS : biological systematics (U Memphis, 1976)
MS : probability & statistics (U Memphis, 1983)
PhD : ecology & evolution (U New Mexico, 1990)
Taught college biology & math for 8 years
2000 - 2011 : Independent educator teaching college-level seminars & courses
about systems sciences, life sciences, geophysiology & climate change
Now: Offering this seminar
as a portal to my curriculum
& The Adaptability Project
Personal
Hiker, backpacker, mountaineer,
wildness lover, dancer, percussionist,
lover of life (the experience & the concept) ...
3
What is 'A Story of Gaia' (ASoG)?
A story in a language of new sciences
about Earth as a planetary-scale
metabolism & homeostasis that is, a life form.
A dynamic tale using
words & images
audio & video
science & art
It is designed at an introductory college-level for adults
with any background, including no science or mathematics.
It will exist as
a live lecture/discussion series - now
this online seminar : ASoG Online
training for educators – now
a DVD & book ... in progress
a campfire story ... a goal
4
Why is 'A Story of Gaia' important?
Because it offers an awe-inspiring
new way of understanding Earth, life &
nature - scientifically & metaphorically,
rationally & intuitively – that is not
offered by the mechanistic sciences
of the 20th century but is necessary
for the survival of our species, other
species, & the healing of Earth's
metabolism & homeostasis.
Because it explains how Gaia has begun
dismantling civilization with unstoppable,
type II climate change - abrupt, chaotic &
extreme - that will make large regions of
Earth unlivable & greatly reduce Earth's
human populations beginning by midcentury. We must work to increase
survivability & adaptability by shockproofing systems to meet basic needs.
5
Why do we need to understand Gaia?
-- James Lovelock, The Revenge of Gaia :
Earth's Climate Crisis & the Fate of Humanity
“I see the Earth's declining health as our most important
concern, our very lives depending upon a healthy Earth.
Our concern for it must come first, because the welfare
of the burgeoning masses of humanity
demands a healthy planet.”
“Our understanding of the Earth system is not much better
than a nineteenth-century physician's understanding of a
patient. But we are sufficiently aware of the physiology
of the Earth to realize the severity of its illness...”
6
Why understand Gaia?
-- James Lovelock, The Revenge of Gaia :
Earth's Climate Crisis & the Fate of Humanity
“Metaphor is important because to deal with,
understand, and even ameliorate the fix we are
in over global change requires us to know the
true nature of Earth and imagine it as the largest
living thing in our solar system, not something
inanimate like that disreputable contraption 'spaceship Earth' *. Until this change
of heart and mind happens we will not instinctively sense that we live on a live
planet that can respond to the changes we make, either by canceling the changes
or canceling us. Unless we see the Earth as a planet that behaves as if it were alive,
at least to the extent of regulating its climate and chemistry, we will lack the will to
change our way of life and to understand that we have made it our greatest enemy.”
* We will explore why 'spaceship Earth' is an objectionable metaphor for Gaia.
The reason is related to the fact that the mechanistic sciences of the last
three centuries metaphorically represent nature as a 'machine'.
7
Why understand Gaia?
-- Stephan Harding, Animate Earth :
Science, Intuition & Gaia
“The messages from the ice [core studies]
are strikingly clear: stable climate is a myth.
The Gaia into which our species emerged is
a wild, complex dynamic being, subject to
sudden shifts between multiple semi-stable
states. At this time in her long life, small
disturbances can ramify through her vast body, growing larger and
larger through positive feedback .... There are tipping points beyond
which climate can suddenly transmute from benign to deadly, and
there is no good reason for us to bask in the complacent idea that
our emissions of greenhouse gases will warm the planet gradually
– that we will have time to adapt. It is far more likely that we will
trigger abrupt, catastrophic climate changes that will push
Gaia into a new hot state unsuitable for many of
her life forms, including ourselves.”
8
Why understand Gaia?
-- Diane Dumanoski The End of the Long Summer :
Why We Must Remake Civilization
to Live on a Volatile Earth
“Gaia's most lasting impact, however,
may lie beyond science .... Through Gaia as metaphor,
it is possible to glimpse the organic unity of the Earth
and be awed by our own existence within this rich, complex,
and wondrous whole. And in both its scientific and metaphoric
aspects, this new view of the Earth provides the foundation for
a new cultural map that can guide us in the planetary era.”
9
Reviews by the first 'Story of Gaia' participants
“Alder's course is a beacon of truth and light in an environment that is so often
filled with darkness and lies. Not providing people with rosy outlooks and easyto-digest falsities, Alder bases his course on sound scientific data and years of
research and experience. The organization and set-up of the class is easy to follow
and he ensures that everyone has a sound background in systems sciences and
Gaia theory before moving on, making it possible to not merely hear the facts,
but deeply understand them. Alder's course helps people to grasp the reality
of a changing world in a way that is informative, educational,
interesting and profoundly important.”
-- Daniel Jordan, Student, Bates College, Lewiston, ME
“I truly enjoyed the class. I appreciate how very knowledgeable you are about the
topic and the science behind the topic of climate change. Love the science and the
systems theory of Gaia ... I was never made to feel dumb or that my questions were
stupid ... I so appreciate the work you are doing to bring awareness to others
about this savagery we're perpetrating on our wonderful earth.”
-- Nancy Salmon, Assistant Director, Bates College Dance Festival
10
From students in other courses by Alder about Gaia & climate
Regular science classes teach subjects in little disjointed bits. Alder puts them
together and helps his students see the world as a functioning and inter-connected
whole. His classes are thought provoking, mind altering and very worth the journey.
-- Terri Brown, Eugene OR
Alder’s teachings on climate science helped me to understand the interrelations and
complexity of our climate system, and the urgency of our situation, something I
clearly needed to grasp in order to be successful at my work. -- Matt McRae,
Climate & Energy Action Coordinator, City of Eugene, Oregon
Teaching about Earth’s future climate in a clear way is extremely challenging. Alder
has a unique background in both math and sciences, plus the drive to understand
these topics deeply: these together make him an excellent teacher of systems science
and Gaia theory. I owe a great deal to him for the effort he put into the courses I
participated in. -- Steve Frankel, science instructor,
North International High School, Eugene, OR
I believe that Alder’s curriculum provides us with the foundational underpinning
by which we can begin to create new covenants with nature, new relationships to
ourselves and new ways of interacting with the living planet. Through this process
of learning and unlearning, we can then begin to weave new and inspiring stories stories that inspire a sense of place and being like never before.
-- Kate Boverman, The JED Collective, Greene, ME
11
What is the purpose of this overview?
PLEASE READ CAREFULLY : Do NOT expect to fully
understand the concepts of 'A Story of Gaia' from
this introductory overview alone! Understanding
will come from the full seminar.
These 80+ slides offer but a glimpse – equivalent
to a 2-hour lecture - into a 7-hour set of lectures
that would stretch to 10 hours with discussion.
This overview is intended to :
Clarify what questions & concepts ASoG addresses
Offer participants the 'big picture', to see how
topics are linked; then, with the seminar,
we fill in the details and synthesize it.
Each slide presents one or more questions,
the answers to which will require from
1 - 10 minutes in the full seminar.
The seminar is designed to
teach these concepts to any adult
with any background, including no science.
12
What are the logistics of ASoG Online?
Here is a brief summary of logistics. Please see
the final six pages of this overview for details,
including costs, which are on a sliding scale.
Summary:
Subject to some minor constraints, you can join ASoG Online
at any time, and participate at your own speed on your own
schedule. There is no set progress rate or finish time.
Participants will move through the seminar in 'waves' of
roughly 5 – 20 people to facilitate coherence of discussion.
The slide shows for parts 1, 2 & 3 are available in multiple file
formats depending upon your preference and desired level of
participation (that is, regular or teacher training).
Questions, comments & discussion can occur in several formats:
web pages accessible only to participants by password (not
publicly viewable); by personal email or by telephone.
13
Why does ASoG focus on science?
My introductory seminars and courses about Gaia & climate change
purposefully focus on science instead of philosophy, sociology,
economics, politics or mythology.
Why?
1. Meaningful discussions about non-science perspectives must be
grounded in an accurate scientific understanding of what Gaia
is, what it is not, and how it works (in general terms). Without
that grounding, misunderstanding leads to miscommunication,
confusion and cross-purpose discussions.
2. Adequate treatment of the science alone requires significant
time. Adding other elements would make this seminar too
long. (I will address them in other seminars, book and DVD.)
3. My expertise is systems science & geophysiology,
not philosophy, sociology, politics, economics or mythology.
During the online seminar, there will be opportunities to discuss
the philosophical, sociological, political, mythological and other
non-science aspects, but those discussions will be separate
from the discussions about science.
14
Why are the parts of ASoG ordered ?
1. Systems (network) sciences
are crucial for understanding
Gaia, which cannot be understood
using traditional mechanistic sciences alone.
Start here
2. The sciences of Gaia – Gaia theory & geophysiology are needed to fully understand climate change.
3. Climate change is but a symptom of a larger problem :
severe disruption of Gaia's metabolism & homeostasis.
15
A Story of Gaia
- Part 1 : Networks & Systems Principles
What is science & how does it work?
Because this story is grounded in science,
we must be clear about what 'science' is.
Crucial distinctions to be addressed
Science is a way of knowing requiring sensing, feeling,
intuition & rational thinking (logic & critical thinking).
Distinctions from philosophy, religion & pseudoscience
How science differs from knowledge learned by science
& use of that knowledge in technology & world views
Definitions & basic processes : how science works using
observations, questions, hypotheses, predictions, etc.
Theory : a very misunderstood word
Models : mathematical and/or computer
Scientific paradigms
17
What is mechanistic reductionism?
The dominant western science
paradigm of last 300 years
Newtonian - Cartesian model
AKA mechanistic reductionism
Metaphor for nature : machine *
Premise: To understand a 'machine',
dissect ('reduce') it & study its parts
Premise: Nature is linear,
therefore, predictable & controllable
Examples
Classical physics & chemistry
Biochemistry, cell biology & anatomy
Astronomy, geology, oceanography,
atmospheric sciences, glaciology
Mathematics of mechanism :
calculus & analytic geometry
* Although machines have been a useful metaphor for
living systems, we will explore why it is inappropriate.
In anatomy, hearts
are called 'pumps' &
blood vessels 'pipes'.
18
What are Gaia sciences?
An emerging new paradigm
with a focus on networks & systems,
dynamic collections of linked parts
Often called network or systems sciences
More holistic : reductionism is understood
as 'necessary but not sufficient'
to understand nature.
Metaphor for nature: Gaia, a planetary-scale
life form with a metabolism & homeostasis.
Premise: Understanding Gaia requires a holistic systems view & intuition.
Premise: Nature is nonlinear, therefore, unpredictable & uncontrollable.
Examples : Ecology, physiology, non-equilibrium thermodynamics
(AKA self-organization science), emergence theory, autopoiesis
theory, symbiogenesis & geophysiology
Mathematics : non-linear dynamics ('chaos theory'), fractal
geometry & computational systems (e.g., cellular automata)
19
What Gaia science principles
are addressed in part 1?
These words may sound foreign,
but this is just a language useful
for understanding many things.
Networks & systems
Feedback & non-linearity
Attractor states, critical thresholds
('tipping points') & phase transitions
Energy gradients, dissipation & equilibrium
Self-organization in dissipative systems
Emergence & emergent properties
System states : Wolfram's 4 classes
Fractal geometry & power laws
20
Why are the Gaia science
principles in part 1 useful?
Once you understand how the principles
apply to any system, you'll understand
all other systems of any scale: molecules,
vortices, cells, hearts, brains, organisms,
societies, economies, ecosystems,
hurricanes, climate, Gaia ...
That's their beauty : unlike mechanistic
sciences, a different set of principles
is not needed for different systems.
One set explains all!
21
What are
networks & systems
& how do they differ?
Both are groups of coupled
or linked nodes (or 'parts')
But systems are more complex
than networks; we'll explore how.
Both are metaphorically
'circular' : all parts are
linked to all others
Example 1: a greatly
simplified climate system
22
Example 2: Marine
ecosystem food web
nodes = species
links = who eats whom
with arrows toward eaters
For understanding systems,
links are more important
than parts or nodes!
It's all about connections.
Circularity → feedback :
actions of any part
'feed back' to it
through the network
(but not necessarily
in a simple way!)
23
small
What are the
two types of feedback
& how do they differ?
self-regulating
Big
Negative (stabilizing)
v
positive (destabilizing)
Very different effects
on climate; positive
is now dominating
Feedback especially positive leads to non-linearity ...
B
i
g
g
e
r
B I G G E R ...
B
i
g
small
B
i
g
g
e
r
Arrow size & direction offer
hints about the distinction ...
24
What does non-linearity look like?
Non-linear systems do NOT change in gradual, predictable ways.
That is, their behavior in time is not linear – straight - but erratic.
Do NOT worry about how to interpret the right graph; the seminar will teach
you how to do that. For now, just look at the lines as examples of nonlinearity.
A decade of stock market averages
430,000 years of data for CO2,
temperature & methane
25
What are system states,
& why are they important?
Distinct dynamical stable or quasi-stable
'behaviors' with no 'in-between' states
Often called 'attractors': systems are
metaphorically 'attracted' to one state or another
Shifts between states are called phase transitions.
They occur at critical thresholds' ('tipping points')
Example 1 : brick : either standing up
or lying down; no 'in-between' states
Here is a simple exercise offering an
intuitive feeling for attractors. Stand
a brick or a book on its end, then play
with tipping it over. See how close to
a 'tipping point' you can get without
'going over'. Try to balance it on edge.
26
More examples of states in systems
more complex & dynamic than bricks
Arctic ice cap
Example 2: You are awake, in deep sleep,
or a dream state, but not 'in-between'.
Cold
Warm
Hot
Example 3 : Gaia currently has 3 temperature states:
cold (ice ages), warm (interglacials) & hot (ice-less)
with no stable 'in-between'.
27
What is non-equilibrium thermodynamics (NET) ?
NET is the science used to understand energy
- sunlight, chemical, electrical and heat.
It is easier to understand than to pronounce.
NET is about energy gradients in which energy flows 'downhill' from
higher to lower concentration, which dissipate (disperse) gradients.
High
energy
Low
energy
Energy flow
Surprisingly, matter exposed to energy gradients spontaneously
organizes to far more complex states - a process called
self-organization – which helps dissipate gradients,
and are, therefore, called dissipative systems.
I will explain why all life forms
– including cells, you, ecosystems & Gaia are dissipative, self-organizing systems.
Remember: this is
only an overview;
this is explained
clearly in seminar!
28
What are some examples of
dissipative, self-organizing systems?
Vortices make fluid flow more
efficient & dissipate gradients.
'Whirlpools' facilitate liquid flow
down a drain. Tornadoes &
hurricanes are similar, but
dissipate heat from Gaia's
surface to upper atmosphere.
In a dish heated from below, a fluid
self-organizes into vertically-flowing
convection 'cells' that dissipate heat
more effectively. Similar cells in the
atmosphere play a major role in
climate, and convection cells in
Earth's magma move tectonic plates.
29
What is emergence
& why is it important?
Gaia is an emergent entity.
Basic concept
Wholes are 'greater than
the sum of their parts'.
New properties emerge
at systems levels not fully
explainable by its parts.
Example : - - - - - - - chlorophyll
Consequences :
System behavior is unpredictable
from knowledge of parts alone;
intuition is required to
understand them.
Emergence is part of our
new understanding of
life and consciousness.
Chlorophyll's green color is not
a property of its atoms, which are
not green. Their links (chemical
bonds) → absorption of red and
blue light, and reflection of green.
Thus, 'green' is an emergent
property of the whole molecule.
30
What are models & why are they useful?
Model : a mathematical or computer description of a system
Essential for science - especially the Gaia sciences - because
models can express and explore what rational thinking cannot
Purposes : to describe what is known & predict what is not
Caveat : models are highly simplified;
thus, 'the map is not the territory'.
Mathphobes, fear not!
During the seminar,
we will comfortably
examine ideas in this
& the next two slides
in a conceptual way
using images to
facilitate intuitive
understanding.
Kinds of mathematics used to construct models
Euclidean geometry &
differential equations (calculus)
Nonlinear dynamics ('chaos theory')
Power laws & fractal geometry
Computer models like Global
Climate Models & Daisyworld
Newest : Wolfram's computational
systems (e.g., cellular automata)
The Mandelbrot fractal teaches
much about nature, including
the extraordinary complexity
of boundaries.
31
Increasing
complexity
What are the 4 types of system (& model) behavior?
Class 1 : fixed, unchanging;
death for living systems.
x
time
Class 2 : oscillating regularly
with a precise rhythm.
Very little in nature is class 2.
Class 3 : randomness & chaos (not synonyms) –
unstable behavior; often symptomatic of disease.
We will visually explore an example of class 3 called
'the butterfly model', a 'strange attractor'.
Class 4 : 'edge of chaos' = boundaries between
order & chaos characterized by fractals & power
laws. Almost everything in nature is class 4.
We will visually explore a simple class 4 model
with big surprises about the nature of reality.
32
Close-ups of class 3 & class 4 models
(from previous slide)
Class 3 : Although beautiful,
this colorized graph of 'chaos' also called a 'strange attractor' –
is symptomatic of dysfunction.
Class 4 : A mathematical graph of
the edges between chaos & order,
a healthy state in which most
natural processes exist
33
A Story of Gaia
- Part 2 : Geophysiology The Science of Gaia
34
What 'A Story of Gaia'
does not describe
'The environment' as explained by
mechanistic sciences. (The laws of
physics and chemistry are necessary
but not sufficient to understand Gaia;
we must add NET, emergence, nonlinear dynamics, geophysiology ....) The biosphere, a spherical shell
bounding the surface of Earth
within which species live.
(Gaia includes the biosphere,
but is much more than that).
New age mysticism or religion.
Many experience a spiritual link
to Gaia, but it is not examined as
a spiritual concept in this seminar.
35
So, what is Gaia?
Life doesn't merely inhabit
the surface of Earth.
The whole planet has emerged
and evolved as a single living
entity (but not an 'organism' *).
Gaia is the whole Earth –
elements, molecules, magma,
rocks, atmosphere, oceans, ice,
soil, energy and organisms –
woven into an organic tapestry,
a complex, dynamical system.
* A minor but important
technical point to be
addressed ...
36
What is a concise definition of Gaia?
Gaia is Earth's metabolism & homeostasis
- self-regulating processes – that emerges
from interaction between coupled living &
non-living parts that have kept conditions
suitable for life by automatically * regulating
the temperature & chemical composition
of Earth's air, water, soil & rocks
for over 3,500 million years.
That is, Gaia is an autopoietic,
dissipative (self-organizing) system.
* The word 'automatically' denotes that
regulation involves no conscious intention,
just as your body automatically regulates
your temperature, pressure & chemistry
without your conscious intention.
See slide 50 for more ...
37
Who (re)discovered Gaia?
The scientific concept of Gaia was first a hypothesis
- now a theory - proposed in the 1970's by ...
James Lovelock
&
Lynn Margulis
Gaia is arguably the
most important idea
of the 21st century for
survival of our species
& many others.
Gaia theory is studied & taught as 'mainstream' science
in Britain and parts of Europe, but not the US.
(We will explore why.)
38
Where is Gaia?
Gaia extends from
the thermosphere
about 500 mi above
Earth's surface...
... to the athenosphere
- where convection cells
drive continental drift about 150 miles deep.
39
What are the parts of Gaia?
Elements: C, H, N, O, P, S, Ca, Si, Fe, Mg ...
Magma, crust, rock & soil
Oceans & freshwater
Ice: polar caps & mountain glaciers
Atmosphere
Living systems
Organisms: bacteria,
protoctists, animals,
fungi & plants
Ecosystems
Energy gradients,
especially energy
from the sun
40
What is metabolism?
As an important part of plant and algae metabolism,
We will explore
photosynthesis powers most life, but is a tiny part
metabolism conceptually
of Gaia's metabolism involving cycles of
as a self-organizing process.
C, H, N, O, P, S, Ca, Si, Fe, Mg ...
No need to understand chemical details.
41
How are these different
& why does it matter?
Earth v Biosphere v Gaia
Gaia hypothesis v Gaia theory
Subtly but
importantly
different.
Biogeochemistry v Geophysiology v Earth Systems Sciences
42
What do we know about
Gaia's 3,900 million year history?
We will examine the major events of Gaia's three eons
Archean (age of bacteria), Proterozoic (age of protoctists),
& Phanerozoic (age of animals, plants, fungi).
3,900 million years ago
Millions of years
43
What are Gaia's three climate (attractor) states
(for at least 65 million years)?
Ice ages
Interglacial
(between ice ages)
PETM–like *
* PETM = Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum – 55 mya
44
Why did oscillating ice ages begin 2 – 3 million years ago?
Graph will be fully explained! For now, just note that the green line
is an estimate of Gaia's temperature over the last 65 million years,
and that the overall trend during that time is toward cooler.
Global temp
Now
Repetitive ice ages
45
What do the trends in CO2, temperature & methane
look like during the ice age/Interglacial cycles?
( What are the important details of this graph? It is class 4.
Can you spot big phase transitions at critical thresholds?)
CO2
Temperature
Methane
Now
400,000 years ago
These labels will be explained.
46
How do Earth's orbital
cycles effect climate?
How do they 'trigger'
phase transitions between
ice ages & interglacials?
Why don't we say that
they 'cause' the transitions,
& why does that matter?
[Note: the answers relate
to the effect that positive
feedback can have on tiny
changes in class 3 & 4 systems.]
47
Why is Gaia 'healthier' during ice ages than interglacials?
Ice ages :
Gaia's healthiest states.
Lovelock: “Gaia likes it cold.”
Interglacials :
pleasant for humans,
but 'fevered' states for Gaia.
48
What are the crucial roles of the marine algae
Emiliania huxleyi in Gaia's temperature regulation?
Ehux is
extremely
important;
it should be the
'poster organism' for
Gaia & climate change.
49
How does Gaia self-regulate?
Lovelock describes Gaia as 'self-regulating'.
However, we have no evidence that it is
conscious (a term that will be defined).
It automatically maintains conditions of
temperature & chemistry suitable for life
just like your homeostasis uses feedback to
maintains your temperature, blood pressure,
glucose, amino & nucleic acids, fats, salts,
etc, at levels suitable for life.
It is surprisingly easy and intuitive
to understand how Gaia self-regulates.
The key to regulation of temperature
is represented by the dotted arrow
plus one other factor ...
... to be explained.
50
What is the key to
Gaia's self-regulation?
Gaia operates within a set of
bounds or constraints which
depend upon the physiological
tolerances of the organisms
to temperature, salinity, pH, etc,
& physical properties of water.
Human constraints for body
temperature range from
~ 34C (93F) to 41C (106F).
51
Is Gaia theory compatible
with natural selection?
When Gaia hypothesis was proposed, biologists
claimed that it contradicted natural selection.
Daisyworld is a computer model
of Gaia demonstrating that not only
is self-regulation compatible with
natural selection, it happens
as a result of natural selection.
Daisyworld is one of the most powerful
and famous computer models in the
world, used in physiology, ecology,
information sciences, cybernetics,
climatology &, of course, Gaia theory.
We will examine conceptually how it works.
The mixture of black & white daisies
in the model serve to regulate
Daisyworld's temperature.
52
A Story of Gaia
- Part 3: Climate Change Understanding
53
Caveat : pay attention
to your emotions
This part of the seminar is not good news. In fact, it is some
of the worst news our species has ever faced. As explained
in detail, the near future looks like a very rough ride.
Rational understanding comes with emotional costs. I have
often watched the facial expressions of audience members in
my lectures turn increasingly sullen. More than one has said
afterward that they felt like they had been “gut punched”.
During emotional check-ins, students in my seminars and
courses often express deep grief and fear – especially for
their children. I have even seen tears.
It will be important for seminar participants to express
their feelings to others so that we can begin to
move beyond fear, despair and denial.
As Dianne Dumanoski asserts, “Fear, despair and denial
are indulgences we cannot afford. It is time to
turn and face the future head on.”
54
Is nature fragile?
“Nature is fragile, environmentalists often tell us. But the
lesson of this book is that is not so. The truth is far more
worrying. Nature is strong and packs a serious counterpunch ... Global warming will very probably unleash
unstoppable planetary forces. And they will not be gradual.
The history of our planet's climate shows that it does not
do gradual change. Under pressure, whether from
sunspots or orbital wobbles or the depredations
of humans, it lurches – virtually overnight.”
-- Fred Pearce, With Speed & Violence:
Why Scientists Fear Tipping Points in Climate Change
________
“The climate system is a capricious beast,
and we have been poking it with sharp sticks.”
-- Wallace Broecker, Climate Scientist
55
A warning about attractor states,
tipping points, positive feedback
& phase transitions
-- Stephan Harding, Animate Earth :
Science, Intuition & Gaia
“The messages from the ice [core studies]
are strikingly clear: stable climate is a myth.
The Gaia into which our species emerged is
a wild, complex dynamic being, subject to
sudden shifts between multiple semi-stable
[attractor] states. At this time in her long life, small
disturbances can ramify through her vast body, growing larger and larger
through positive feedback .... There are tipping points beyond which climate
can suddenly transmute from benign to deadly, and there is no good reason
for us to bask in the complacent idea that our emissions of greenhouse gases
will warm the planet gradually – that we will have time to adapt. It is far more
likely that we will trigger abrupt, catastrophic climate changes that will push
Gaia into a new hot state unsuitable for many of her life forms, including ourselves.”
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What is the distinction between
type I & type II climate change?
-- Fred Pearce, With Speed & Violence:
Why Scientists Fear Tipping Points in Climate Change
At a “conference on 'dangerous climate change' and how
to prevent it, organized by the British government in early
2005 ... the scientists began by adopting neutral language.
They made a distinction between Type I climate change,
which is gradual and follows the graphs developed by
climate modelers for the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, and Type II change, which is much more
abrupt and results from crossing hidden 'tipping points'.
It is not in the standard models. During discussions, this
temperate language gave way. Type II climate change
became, in the words of Chris Ripley, director of the
British Antarctic survey, the work of climatic
'monsters' that are even now being woken.”
57
What is the distinction between
type I & type II climate change?
Type 1
linear, smooth, gradual, predictable
represented by IPCC* models that
lack accurate positive feedbacks
Type II
nonlinear, abrupt, chaotic, unpredictable
ice core studies : type II is the norm
not represented by IPCC models
* Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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What factors must be considered to understand
that type II climate change is probably unstoppable?
-- Current temperature trends
-- CO2 & CH4 levels increasing (accelerating) – PF
-- Permafrost melting, releasing methane – PF
Note: PF
= positive
feedback
-- Methane hydrates destabilizing -- PF
-- Ice caps melting (accelerating) – PF
-- Oceans acidifying, damaging CO2 pump down -- PF
-- Oceans heating, damaging CO2 pump down – PF
-- Ecosystems transitioning from C sinks to C sources – PF
-- Boreal forests expanding northward – PF
-- No known negative feedbacks sufficient to counter PF's
-- Climate system brakes are slow: residence & lag times
-- Aerosols in atmosphere are artificially cooling Gaia
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What are the temperature trends for the
northern hemisphere for the last 1000 yr?
(How does one read this graph, how was it produced, and how reliable is it?)
A temperature
tsunami grows
toward a phase
transition at a
critical threshold
Onset of
global heating
1000 AD
Little ice age
Cooling toward
next ice age
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We will put the trends seen in graph in the previous slide
into the context of this one so that you can understand the
scale, speed & severity of the climate transition beginning now.
CO2
Temperature
Methane
Now
400,000 years ago
These labels will be explained.
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What is the state of the two main
greenhouse gases relative to the past?
CO2 ( carbon dioxide )
Significantly higher now than in at least 650,000 years
Normal ice age: 180 ppm *
Normal interglacial: 280 ppm
Previous high (650,000 yrs): 300 ppm
Now: 390 ppm increasing 2 ppm/year & accelerating
CH4 ( methane )
20 – 25X more powerful than CO2
Average interglacial : 650 ppb *
Now : 1790 ppb
* ppm = parts per million
ppb = parts per billion
62
What is the state of the two main
greenhouse gases relative to the past?
Now 390+
Methane
CO2
CO2
Methane
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What is permafrost,
what is happening to it,
& why is that important?
'Permanently' frozen ground;
1/5 of Earth's land surface,
mostly in the northern hemisphere
It is thawing, releasing methane
from organic matter decomposed
by methane-generating bacteria
called methanogens.
This is a positive feedback.
Scientists who study permafrost call it
'a sleeping giant' with a potential to
rapidly effect climate in almost
inconceivable ways.
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What are methane
hydrates (clathrates)?
Frozen water ice containing
methane on ocean bottom
(on continental shelves)
There are trillions of tons of
methane stored as clathrates,
enough in US coastal waters
to (foolishly) match current
fossil fuel use for centuries.
A molecule
of methane
surrounded
by water
molecules
in ice.
Ocean heating destabilizes
 'methane mega-farts' –
positive feedback
(remember: methane is 25X
more powerful than CO2)
65
What is happening to the polar ice caps
& why is that accelerating climate change?
Arctic ocean
Greenland
Antarctica
66
What are the predictions
about sea level increase?
We will examine evidence that
the IPCC 2007 report prediction of
a 20 to 60 cm (50 – 150 in) sea-level rise
by 2100 is a significant underestimate.
67
How does Gaia regulate ocean pH,
what is ocean acidification,
& why is it important?
Dissolved CO2 is causing oceans to become
less alkaline, moving toward acidic.
Importance : disrupts shell formation
in marine algae (like Ehux),
clams & their relatives,
coral, & fish bones.
Shells are involved in
carbon pump down, so
this is a positive feedback.
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Why should we be more concerned about
ocean heating than atmospheric heating?
Oceans contain most of heat
trapped during last 200 years
- 50X more than in atmosphere.
Causing poleward
movement of
marine algae
Three reasons
that is important
Continued heating
& acidification
→ a loss of algae
= positive feedback
'Ehux' = Emiliania huxleyi
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What does a model based on Daisyworld by
Lovelock & Kump tell us about ocean heating?
+ 8C
jump
by 2040
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Why should you be very concerned that ocean
surface temperatures are increasing above 10C?
71
What is the role of forests
in Gaia's temperature
regulation?
All forests sequester carbon.
Rain forests produce clouds
that produce rain keeping water
in the system & reflecting sunlight,
cooling the tropics.
As we lose rain forests,
we lose the clouds
– a positive feedback.
Boreal forests ('taiga')
are vast coniferous forests
in Alaska, Canada & Siberia.
They are spreading north with
heating, a positive feedback.
72
Why will Earth continue to heat for many decades
even if we reduce emissions from fossil fuels to zero?
Answers involve
CO2 residence time
& ocean heating inertia
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Global dimming
There is strong evidence that Gaia is
already 2 – 3C hotter than we think,
a problem caused by aerosol pollution dust & sulfur dioxide - that is
temporarily offsetting heating by as
much as (probably more) than we
heated in the entire 20th century.
74
What does it mean that
the 21st century will be 'a wild ride'?
“It means buckle your seatbelt, Dorothy,
'cause Kansas is goin' bye bye.”
( ... because type II climate change is abrupt, chaotic, extreme & violent. )
75
Are we killing Gaia?
Environmentalists often claim that we are “killing” Earth.
But we are not. Even though our human actions are damaging Gaia
greatly, making it very sick – as evidenced by the planetary-scale
fever of which Lovelock writes - we are not killing it.
In fact, as Margulis points out, humans do not have the power to
kill Gaia were we even to purposefully try. Gaia has been through
worse than what we are doing now, and survived. Gaia has been
alive continuously for at least 3,500 million years as evidenced by
the continuous regulation: there has never been a time when
regulation of temperature and chemistry has failed.
This argument not intended to justify or condone our actions, or
justify doing nothing. We need to immediately change our
relationship to Gaia and how we live on Earth in a way that heals
Gaia instead of doing further damage – see next slide.
But we are not killing Gaia. It is our species – and many others –
that is at risk. We may go extinct, but Gaia will continue to live.
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-- Diane Dumanoski The End of the Long Summer :
Why We Must Remake Civilization
to Live on a Volatile Earth
"The future in the modern imagination has always
stretched out ahead like a broad highway drawing us
onward with the promise of tomorrow. Now rather
suddenly, as it becomes impossible to ignore dramatic
changes taking place across the Earth, the future
looms like an urgent question. Whatever the coming
century brings, it will not unfold smoothly as some
improved but largely familiar version of life as we
know it. This is the only thing that seems certain.”
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-- Diane Dumanoski The End of the Long Summer :
Why We Must Remake Civilization
to Live on a Volatile Earth
“The door to the comfortable and familiar world we
depend on has already slammed shut behind us. It is
already too late to ‘prevent’ global warming or to
‘solve’ the climate crisis, too late to prevent powerful
forces from altering the trajectory of human history.
That we have already crossed some ominous thresholds, however, does not mean that it is too late to do
anything at all. We humans are at a critical juncture –
an historical moment that requires courage and sober
realism. We cannot bank on the end of the world or
deliverance from the trials of existence, whether
through blind faith or technological salvation. Fear,
despair, and denial are indulgences we cannot afford.
It is time to turn and face the future head on.”
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What is 'The Adaptability Project'?
Gaia has begun dismantling our current civilization,
making large regions of Earth unlivable,
and reducing the human population
via unstoppable, abrupt, chaotic,
extreme climate change.
This project is designed to:
mitigate its scale, speed and severity
increase human survivability and adaptability by
shock-proofing systems for meeting basic needs
help remake civilization as a network of re-localized
communities grounded in the wisdom of Gaia sciences
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The previous slide marks the end of
the introductory overview for
A Story of Gaia Online (ASoGO).
For those interested in joining the seminar,
the next six slides address the logistics of doing so
Time frame & scheduling
How to join the seminar
How questions & discussion will be handled
Cost of the seminar (sliding scale)
How to proceed next
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Logistics : What is the time frame & schedule for ASoGO?
There is no rigid time structure or meeting times. With minor constraints,
you can join the ASoG Online (ASoGO) at any time and proceed on your own
schedule at your own pace; it is designed to be engaged as you have time.
You may participate at any time on any days, as much or as little as you wish.
(But enough to learn key ideas sufficiently to grasp the next part, of course.)
A rough goal – but NOT a requirement - is to finish all three parts of the
seminar in about one month, but you can take months to complete it
if you wish or need.
All participants will begin by viewing this introductory overview for one
week. Use that time to develop a 'big picture' overview of ASoG, begin to
familiarize yourself with the vocabulary (even if you don't have definitions).
After that, you may begin part 1 on your schedule.
Participants will spend a minimum of one week in each of the three parts to
ensure time for reading, rereading, questions, discussion, and reflection
before beginning the next part.
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Logistics : Waves
ASoGO will run continuously with overlapping 'waves' of 5 – 20 participants
who begin at approximately the same time (usually w/in weeks) and – ideally move through it together, even if on different days or different weeks.
The live seminar would require 6 - 7 hours for lectures, but up to 10 hours
total depending on amount of discussion. I don't know yet how that will
translate into time, reading, reflecting, questioning and discussion online.
I suspect that on average, each wave will take about one month to complete
the seminar – but again, there are no fixed constraints.
After most – but not necessarily all - of a wave migrates out of part 1 into part
2, I'll open part 1 to the next wave; etc.
I suggest that waves not move too fast through any part; I recommend one
week per part, to allow for reading, re-reading, reflection, discussion,
exploration of additional resources/links, etc, before moving onto the next
part. In-depth tangents are possible on a case-by-case basis.
There will be a short, simple, informative assessment to make sure that a few
crucial elements of each part - necessary for the next - are understood before
moving on. This begins with part 1; there is no assessment for this overview.
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Logistics : How do you access the seminar?
The seminar – a slide show in three parts, each in a separate file is available in three file formats:
1. As a slide show in a browser using a file in swf format.
Pro: smaller file (one half) to download than option 2.
Con: not as aesthetically pleasing in full screen slide show mode;
does not allow 'going backwards' – once you advance a slide, you
cannot go back to a previous slide without restarting the slide show.
2. As Adobe pdf files.
Pro: more aesthetically pleasing in full-screen slide show mode;
allows you to reverse slide direction to revisit slides.
Con: larger file size
3. Those in teacher training (please inquire) will receive an editable version
of the slide show as either an OpenOffice Impress file (odt)
or Microsoft PowerPoint file (ppt)
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Logistics : How will questions & discussion be handled?
Subject to guidelines to insure that all participants have equal access to
discussion, you may ask all the questions you wish.
Questions, comments & discussions will be conducted on several fronts,
depending on individual preferences:
On pages on my web site with entry into relevant parts (1, 2 & 3) with
a password for participants only (not viewable by the public). This will
allow discussion to occur among participants, and new waves can benefit
from reading what has been discussed previously.
Personal emails or by telephone with me.
We will mostly separate technical, scientific discussions
from philosophical & socio-political discussions.
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Logistics : How much does the seminar cost?
To help make this available to as many as possible,
I offer the seminar on a sliding scale* :
I request $75 minimum for the full seminar; that's $25 per part.
You can pay as you go if you need, one part at a time.
If you cannot afford $75, talk with me,
and hopefully we can work something out.
If you can pay more, then I'll make the 'overage'
available for 'scholarships' for those who cannot pay.
Limited work study may be possible (graphics, web design, research, etc.)
* I am seeking funding sufficient to make
the seminar available for free.
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Logistics : What's next?
Now that you have completed your first pass with this overview slide show,
if you wish to continue with the seminar, I suggest the following:
Set this aside for a day or three, then work through the slide show a second
time. You are attempting to begin to build a big picture overview of the
seminar. Note that the second time through, you will begin to feel more
comfortable with the ideas and the flow of the seminar.
Either now or after a second pass or both, contact me with a list of questions,
concerns or comments by email. This is not required, merely suggested.
Remember that key terms and concepts will be fully explained in the seminar.
In terms of building a big picture view, it may be useful to - at least once simply flip through the slides quickly without focusing on specific details.
When you feel that you are ready to begin part 1, let me know. I will make it
available to you in a format of your choice, and guide you to the discussion
forum for part 1.
Enjoy the story!
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