Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems

Transcription

Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
and the role of the CTO in future orientation of a firm
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck & Dr. Katharina Hölzle
Technische Universität Berlin, Chair for Innovation and Technology Management
EITIM Senior Management Forum, Cambridge, UK.
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
What will we talk about?
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
Corporate Foresight
Corporate Foresight is the ability,
¾
to grasp the features of social and technological currents
that are likely to have an impact
¾ to recognise patterns before they emerge, and
¾ to see developments before they become trends.
¾ It is not the ability to make predictions.
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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The role of Corporate Foresight – in managing future
orientation and openness for discontinuous change.
Corporate
Development/
Marketing
Strategic
Management
guides policy and
shapes strategy
explores
new markets
Corporate
Foresight
detects adverse
conditions
Strategic
Controlling
Innovation &
Technology
Management
explores new
technologies,
products and services
Source: Own figure on the basis of Slaughter 1998, p. 382, Tsoukas 2004, p. 10
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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Why is this research relevant?
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
Companies are confronted with discontinuous change
from various directions.
Examples of discontinuous change
ƒ Replacement of technology
from chemical photography by digital photography caught Kodak
“of guard” and Kodak had to cut its workforce to ¼ in 5 years
Technology
ƒ When girls started maturing earlier
the target market for Barbie dolls shrunk from 3-11 year old
to 3-5 year old and led to a 20% loss in market share
Society/
Consumer
ƒ Radical decrease of margins
in the core business of large mainframe computers,
forced IBM to move into the IT-Service market
Market
Legislative
GMO
ƒ Ban of Genetically Modified Food
in the European Union came unexpected and destroyed much
of the R&D investments in the industry
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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Discontinuous change can also yield opportunities that
can be exploited.
Example: Trend towards Lifestyle of Health and Sustainability (LOHAS)
New
Consumer
markets
New ways to
differentiate
against
competitors
New
Business
markets
ƒ Wellness
ƒ Market estimate in the
US: $209 billion
ƒ All major companies
publish sustainability
reports
ƒ Global index
ƒ Green buildings
ƒ Market estimate in the
US: $50 billion
But Companies continue to report difficulties
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden,
René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina
Hölzle 2009
toProf.
manage
discontinuous
change.
7
But companies continue to report difficulties to manage
discontinuous change.
De Geus 1997
The Living Company
„The average life expectancy of Fortune 500
companies is below 50 years “
European Industrial
Research
Management
Association
„Effectively detecting and answering to
disruptions will prove crucial for large
companies in order to succeed in our fast
moving environment“
Corporate Executive
Board
Research and Technology
Management Council TM
„Although sensing and anticipating are not
particularly difficult, building an organizational
structure that facilitates an effective response
can prove challenging.”
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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Why is it so difficult for companies to adapt to
discontinuous changes?
Context
Ignorance
1.
High Rate of
change
1.
Short-term
Orientation
2.
Complexity of
Innovations &
Stakeholders
2.
Local
Orientation
3.
Success with
Incremental
change
3.
Filtering from
Lower Levels
4.
Information
Overload
Inertia
1.
Complex
internal
structures
2.
Barriers
against Cannibalization
3.
Complex
external
structures
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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Firms in a crisis more often engage in radical innovations
In % of each group
Past performance: return on investment and
growth – compared to industry average
© 2009 Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden
10
Good firms manage innovations in new businesses better
Commercial Project Success,
Rating from 1 to 7
© 2009 Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden
11
The Impact of Innovativeness varies by Dimension
All Success
Measures
Commercial
Success
Efficiency
(Time, Cost)
Innovativeness
(Unidimensional
Construct)
0,21*
0,22*
0,23*
Technological
Innovativeness
0,06
-0,02
-0,03
0,42*
0,46*
0,05
-0,31*
-0,34*
-0,13*
Market
Innovativeness
Organizational
Innovativeness
Meta-Analysis of 77 Studies with 10.730 Product Innovations
* p < 0.01
Source: Kock, Gemünden, Salomo, Schultz: The Mixed Blessings of Technological
Innovativeness for the Commercial Success of New Products, TU Berlin 2009
© 2009 Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden
12
Wie wirkt der Innovationsgrad? Meta-Analyse
von 77 Studien mit 10.730 Produktinnovationen
All Success
Measures
Commercial
Success
Efficiency
(Time, Cost)
Innovativeness
(Unidimensional
Construct)
0,21*
0,22*
0,23*
Technological
Innovativeness
0,06
-0,02
-0,03
0,42*
0,46*
0,05
-0,31*
-0,34*
-0,13*
Market
Innovativeness
Organizational
Innovativeness
* p < 0.01
Quelle: Kock, Gemünden, Salomo, Schultz: The Mixed Blessings of
Technological
Innovativeness for the Commercial Success of New Products, TU Berlin 2008
© 2009 Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden
13
Path Analysis: Impact of Technological Innovativeness on Success
T1: End of Development
T2: Market Phase (1.5 years later)
Organizational
Innovativeness
H5 (-)
H3 (+)
Technological
Innovativeness
H1 (+)
Market
Innovativeness
H2 (+) Commercial
Success
H4 (+)
H6 (-)
Environmental
Innovativeness
© 2009 Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden
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Results of the Path Analysis
T2
0.23**
Organizational
Innovativenes
s
R2 = .06
-0.27*
MKT
T2
T1
0.39***
Technological
Innovativeness
0.44***
R2 =
.15
T2
Commercial
Success
MKT
R2 = 0.27
PL
PL
0.12 (n.s.)
T2
0.41***
Environmental
Innovativeness
R2 =
.17
MKT
-0.28**
T1, T2 = Time 1, 2
PL = Project Leader;
MKT = Marketing Manager
Source: Kock, Gemünden, Salomo, Schultz: The Mixed Blessings of Technological
© 2009 Prof. Success
Dr. Hans of
Georg
Innovativeness for the Commercial
New Gemünden
Products, TU Berlin 2009
15
What do we know so far?
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
Three major research perspectives have contributed
knowledge on the management of discontinuous change.
Radical innovations
National foresight perspective (macro)
ƒ Gemünden et al. (2007)
ƒ O‘Connor (2006, 2001)
ƒ Stevens, Burley (2003)
ƒ Chandy, Tellis (2000, 1998)
ƒ Leifer et al. (2000)
ƒ Henderson (1993)
ƒ Cuhls (2001, 2003)
ƒ Grupp, Linstone (1999)
Disruptions
ƒ Tellis (2006)
ƒ Markides (2006)
ƒ Danneels (2004)
ƒ Arnold (2003)
ƒ Christensen (1997)
ƒ Martin (1995)
ƒ Gerybadze (1994)
Corporate perspective (micro)
ƒ Müller(2008)
ƒ Nick (2008)
ƒ Rollwagen (2008)
ƒ Day, Shoemaker (2004, 2006)
ƒ Roll (2004)
ƒ Becker (2002)
ƒ Bondu (2001)
ƒ Krystek, Müller-Stewens (1993)
ƒ Wack (1985)
Futures
studies
Innovation
management
Corporate
Foresight
Strategic
management
Corporate Change and Ambidexterity
Environmental scanning
Decision making
ƒ Stadler, Hinterhuber (2005)
ƒ De Geus (1997)
ƒ Romanelli, Tushman (1994)
ƒ Mintzberg, Westley (1992)
ƒ May et al. (2000)
ƒ Elenkov (1997)
ƒ Thomas et al. (1993)
ƒ Daft et al. (1998)
ƒ Nutt (2007)
ƒ Arendt (2005)
ƒ Judge, Douglas (1998)
ƒ Schwenk (1984)
ƒ Bahrami (1992)
ƒ Henderson, Clark (1990)
ƒ Tushman et al.(1985)
ƒ Utterback, Abernathy (1975)
ƒ Ireland et al. (1987)
ƒ Jain (1984)
ƒ Daft, Weick (1984)
ƒ Hambrick (1982)
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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Our research is built on key findings from earlier research.
Findings from past research
Perspectives
ƒ There is a need for ambidextrous capabilities (Tushman, Anderson 1986; Romanelli,
Tushman 1996).
Strategic
management
ƒ High performing companies have strong scanning systems (Daft, Sormunen
1988).
ƒ Interpretation should be done by top management and information
gathering by boundary spanners (Jemison 1984; Nochur, Allen 1992).
Innovation
management
ƒ Incumbents tend to be ignorant and slow to react, and need specific
organizational structures to succeed in times of discontinuous change.
(Christensen 1997; O’Connor, DeMartino 2006).
ƒ Committed individuals are the key to drive change and maintain future
orientation (Leifer et al. 2000; Stevens, Burley 1993; Gemünden et al. 2007).
ƒ Future orientation should be achieved by exploring possible futures, rather
than trying to predict future developments (Wack 1985, Schoemaker, van der Heijden
Future studies
1992).
ƒ Participation in the foresight activity is key to ensure that actions will be
taken (Cuhls 2003; Stuckenschneider, Schwair 2005, Schwarz 2005, van der Helm 2007).
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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Our research is built on the theoretical basis of weak
signals and dynamic capabilities.
Theoretical basis
ƒ Strategic management is characterized by a certain ignorance to
changes happening outside their current business (Ansoff 1980)
ƒ Strategic discontinuities are announced by weak signals (Ansoff, et al.
1976 )
Weak Signals
ƒ They have to be identified in the environment (Day/ Schoemaker 2005, Lesca/
Caron 1995)
ƒ They are usually fuzzy and unstructured (Krystek 2007)
ƒ “The search for weak signals is one where you do not know what you
are looking for” (Liebl 2005)
Dynamic
capabilities
ƒ Definition: “The firm’s ability to integrate, build, and reconfigure
internal and external competences to address rapidly changing
environments” (Teece, Pisano and Shuen 1997)
ƒ Capabilities follow an evolutionary pattern (Helfat/ Peteraf 2003)
ƒ A competitive advantage can be attained by a company which is able
to reconfigure its resources fast, when faced with changes in the
environment (Dutta/ Narasimhan/ Rajiv 2005, Leifer/ Salomo 2007)
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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What we were interested in?
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
Research questions and methodological challenges
Research Questions
1
What are the elements of corporate foresight systems?
2
What are the levels of proficiency within the elements?
3
What are best-practices in corporate foresight?
Methodological Challenges
1
Include multiple industries and countries
2
Include multiple informant perspectives
3
Insure sufficient triangulation and high level of generalizability
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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What we did?
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
A high level of generalizability was achieved by using
different corporate contexts and collection instruments.
Data sources
Data collection instruments
18 case studies in 7 countries
106 interviews
(80% transcribed)
38 internal
documents
12 benchmark talks
18 publications
(From case-study participant)
51 interview
templates
(for validation of data within
the interview)
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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For triangulation three informant perspectives were used,
with a particular emphasis on the internal customers.
Perspectives of informants
Foresight
Activity
Number of interviews
Usage
Responsible
Internal Customer
of the foresight
activity.
and user of the
foresight insights
41
Activity team
106
working on the
foresight activity.
37
28
Activity
Activity
team Responsible
Responsibl Internal
e
team
customer
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
TOTAL
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For validation of the Maturity Model three mechanisms
were used.
Validation means
Case study result
presentations
2 practitioner
conferences
ƒ 2007: 16 companies
ƒ 2008: 36 companies
8 academic
conferences
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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What we found?
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
The Maturity Model of Corporate
Foresight.
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
The Maturity Model consists of five capability dimensions
and is framed by context and value contribution.
Context
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
Different
Requirements
i
Organization
Different
Timeframes &
Clockspeeds
Different
Systems &
Practices
$$$
Information
usage
Capabilities
People &
Networks
Method
sophistication
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
1. Trigger own
actions
2. Influence others
actions
Î Exploiting new
Opportunities
Î Avoiding
unknown risks
28
Information usage
Context
• Reach
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
Scanning in core areas or adjacent areas or
white spaces
•Nature
Scope
of
Organization
Scanning extends into
political, technology,
strategy
consumer, and competitor environment
Capabilities
•Complexity
Time horizon
Emphasis on short term vs. active
Volatility
management of short, medium and long
term
Communicative
Interweavement
• Sources
Formal vs. informal
$$$
i
Information
usage
Method
sophistication
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
Reacting on
threats and
opportunities
Shaping the
future
Reducing
uncertainty
29
* Percentage difference larger than 15%
Information Usage
Percentage of “agree”
0
*Exclusive Sources
*
20
40
57%
Top Perfomer
All
80%
100% 100%
*
*Conferences
100
100% 100%
Internal Networks
*
80
75% 75%
Internet
External Networks
60
82%
100% 100%
63%
83% 83%
58%
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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Method sophistication
Context
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
• Integration capacity
Cross-functional, cross-divisional, crossknowledge domain, etc.
•Nature
Match
of with problem
Organization
Decision-oriented, communication-oriented,
strategy
exploration-oriented
•Complexity
Match with context
Match with time horizon, match with
Volatility
volatility of environment, etc.
Communicative
Interweavement
$$$
i
Information
usage
Capabilities
Method
sophistication
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
Reacting on
threats and
opportunities
Shaping the
future
Reducing
uncertainty
31
3
Method Usage
Percentage of “agree”
0
20
40
60
80
63%
Deliberate Selection
63%
54%
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
Top Perfomer
All
32
People & Networks
The capability benchmark is framed by the context of the company and the value
creation in terms of reaction to threats and opportunities and shaping the future.
Context
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
• Characteristics of Foresighter
$$$
Broad knowledge, internal and external
Nature of
strategy
Organization
Complexity
Volatility
People &
Networks
network
Reacting on
Information
• Network usage
scope
threats and
Consciously managed internal opportunities
and
Capabilitiesexternal network
• Internal communication Shaping the
future
Insights are diffused rapidly in a formal
Method
and informal manner
sophistication
i
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
Characteristics of a Corporate Foresighter
Percentage of „agree“
0
20
40
60
80
100
86%
73%
85%
External
*Strong Network
85%
67%
100%
Broad
*
Knowledge
100%
71%
0
*Effective Diffusion
Top Perfomer
All
86%
Strong Internal
Network
20
40
43%
23%
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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Top Perfomer
All
34
The research framework
The capability benchmark is framed by the context of the company and the value
creation in terms of reaction to threats and opportunities and shaping the future.
Context
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
• Mode
Nature of
strategy
Organization
Complexity
Volatility
People &
Networks
$$$
bottom-up vs. top-down; continuous
scanning
vs. project based
Reacting on
Information
threats and
usage
• Integration
with other processes
opportunities
e.g. innovation management, strategic
Capabilitiesmanagement, corporate development
Shaping the
• Accountability
future
responsibility
to detect weak signals
Method
• Incentives
sophistication
to reward wider vision
i
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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Organisation of Corporate Foresight
Percentage of „agree“
0
20
60
80
Top Perfomer
All
38%
Top-Down Process
established
48%
Process
* Bottom-Up
established
50%
27%
Issue driven
Field Search
75%
69%
75%
Continous CF Activities
Every employee responsible
for detecting weak signals
40
69%
13%
18%
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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The research framework
The capability benchmark is framed by the context of the company and the value
creation in terms of reaction to threats and opportunities and shaping the future.
Context
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
Nature of
strategy
$$$
• Willingness to share across
functions
Reacting on
Capabilities
Complexity
Volatility
People &
Networks
Information
• Readiness
scoutsand
and
usage to listen to threats
opportunities
external sources
i
Organization
• Willingness to test andShaping
challenge
the
basic assumptions
future
Method
• Organization's
attitude towards
sophistication
the periphery
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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Cultural Considerations
Percentage of „agree“
0
20
88%
* Building and maintaining an
40
60
80
88%
external network is encouraged
62%
50%
100
Top Perfomer
All
46%
Information is shared freely across
functions and hierarchical levels
46%
25%
Basic assumptions are
frequently challenged
25%
28%
13%
Employees actively scan 13%
the companys environment
18%
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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Within the five capability dimensions the aspired maturity
level is chosen on the basis of a context analysis.
Capability dimensions
Maturity levels
Highest possible
value
4
3
i
2
1
Attained maturity
level
The aspired maturity level depend on:
ƒ Size of company
ƒ Nature of strategy
ƒ Complexity of environment
ƒ Industry clockspeed
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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To customize and improve specific CF capabilities the
Model’s maturity level descriptions can be used.
Exem
plary
Items
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Reach
Scanning only in current
business
Scanning in current
business and areas of
interest
Scanning in current and
adjacent business
Scanning in current
business, adjacent
business and in white
spaces
Scope
Focus on technology
scanning
Scanning technologies
and poorly some other
areas
Scanning the areas of the
environment to a different
extent
Scanning in all areas
(Technology, political,
competitor, customer)
Time horizon
Emphasis on short term
Short and medium term
are taken into account (12 product life cycles)
Long, medium and short
term are taken into
account
Pro-active scanning in
long, medium and short
term in place
Sources
Use of few and easily
accessible sources
Use of multiple easily
accessible sources
Use of some restricted
sources that provide
competitive advantage
Use of many sources that
provide competitive
advantage
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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Foresight capabilities can be build on either structural or
cultural elements.
Corporate foresight
through
Structure
Culture
Information
usage
Method
sophistication
People &
networks
Organization
Culture
Reach
Match with goal
Characteristics of
foresighters
Mode
Willingness to share
across functions
Scope
Match with context
Internal network
Integration with
other processes
Readiness to listen
to scouts and
external sources
Time horizon
Integration capacity
External network
Formal diffusion of
insights
Informal diffusion of
insights
Sources
Communication
capacity
Accountability
Organization's
attitude towards the
periphery
Incentives
Willingness to test
and challenge basic
assumptions
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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It has been found that companies can achieve a high
foresight success by either structural or cultural means.
Four types of companies
Two dimensions
ƒ The Ignorant
ƒ Overall limited CF capabilities
ƒ The Foresighting Company
ƒ Enables employees to start own initiatives to
profit from discontinuous change
ƒ The Systematic Foresighter
ƒ Has dedicated units for CF
ƒ Has implemented processes to ensure that CF
insights are translated into actions
ƒ The Hyperactive
ƒ Is a company which is obsessed with scanning
the environment and managing the future
ƒ To much resources are invested into CF
ƒ The company risks to focus to much on the
future and following fashions without staying long
enough in one market to make profit.
The Foresighting
Company
The Hyperactive
The Ignorant
The Systematic
Foresighter
Culture
ƒ Encourages every employee to scan the
environment
Structure
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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Within our sample all but one company build their CF
systems on structured means.
Scores of individual companies
Four types of companies
(n=18)
(in percentage)
The Foresighting
company
The Hyperactive
Culture
Culture
6%
42%
50%
The Ignorant
Structure
The Systematic
Foresighter
Structure
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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Best-Practices in Corporate
Foresight.
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
Best practice overview.
Scout networks
Promoting an
external view
Data mining
i
Linking foresight to
innovation management
Combining scenario
analysis and
roadmapping
Linking foresight to
strategy
Communicating insights
through participation
IT-based
collaboration tools
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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i Information usage
ƒNetwork of scouts
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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Three companies have installed a scouting network to
gather information which is not publicly available.
Generic scouting network
Scout
Scout
Scout
Scout
Company
boundaries
Information flow
Scout
Network
Internal stakeholder
Sources
Scout
Scouts (internal/ external)
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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One company was aiming to establish a platform to
engage in collaborative foresight with other companies.
Collaborative scouting platforms
(institutionalized through virtual and presence meetings)
Sports
Music
Design
Health
North
America
Media
Europe
China
Retail
Architecture
Furniture
Scouting topics
Own experts
Experts from other companies
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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i Information usage
ƒData Mining
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
49
Through normalization and a common taxonomy Data
Mining allows to interrelate multiple data sources.
Data Mining process
Define question
Development of
taxonomy
Data collection
Analysis
ƒ Interpretation of data
by human analyst
ƒ Defining aim and
question using the
5W
ƒ Define entities
ƒ Choose databases
ƒ Normalization of
databases
ƒ Choose format of
report
ƒ Define keywords and
probabilities
ƒ Develop data
retrieval algorithms
for each relevant
database
ƒ Save normalized
data in own database
ƒ Preparation of data
for further
interpretation and
decision making
Multiple iterations
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
50
Data Mining allows to visually explore data, to identify
relationships and to answer specific foresight questions.
Visual exploration in Data Mining
Technology
Example
Company
Researcher
Pilot plant
ƒ Research question: Which companies are the technology leaders and which
companies are the biggest producers of micro algae for CO2 reduction
ƒ Added value through data mining: Ability to identify the relationships between
technologies, researchers, pilot plants and companies.
ƒ Result: 20 page presentation to prepare the decision to acquire the company with
the superior technology and with the most influential researchers.
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
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Method sophistication
ƒCombining scenario analysis and roadmapping
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
52
The combination of roadmapping with scenario analysis
can be done differently with different aims.
Situation
analysis
Roadmapping
Scenario analysis
Project 1: „Building of future oriented R&D roadmaps“
1
2
Analyze current
portfolio
3
Analyze R&D
roadmap
4
Trend analysis
8
Plan & initiate new
R&D projects
7
Identify
implications
Identify needed
capabilities
6
Develop
hypothesis
Develop
scenarios
5
Project 2: „Scenario based future exploration“
2
1
Trend analysis
6
Draw technology
roadmap
Identify future key
technologies
5
Identify
implications
4
Develop
hypothesis
Develop
scenarios
3
5
Identify business
opportunities
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
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People & Networks
ƒIntegrating experts into foresight projects
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
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54
One company used multiple approaches to bring expert
knowledge into the foresight project.
Internal experts on
demand
(from various business units
and regions)
Project core team
Interviews,
meetings,
workshops
(at group head quarter)
Interviews
(telephone,
face to face)
90 interviews with
external experts
(Academics, customers,
venture capitalists, and
consultants)
Regional expert workshops
North America
Europe
Africa & Middle East
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
Asia
55
Organization
ƒIntegrating the internal customer into the
foresight project organization
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
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To ensure usage of foresight insights one company
integrates the business owners into the project.
Joint top management steering board
CEO or member of executive board
Head of Strategic Marketing
Joint project management
Project manager
Project manager
Market experts
Technology experts
Sales & marketing
Research & development
Experts on demand (in regions)
Experts on demand (in regions)
Thought leaders
Technology experts
(architects, designers, artists)
Lead customers
Business unit
Corporate technology unit
University contacts
External experts
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
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Organization
ƒIntegrating foresight into the innovation
management process
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
58
Linking Foresighting to Innovation Management
Innovation process
Idea generation
Selection
Development
Commercialization
1
Initiator
ƒ Identify new needs
ƒ Identify new technologies
ƒ Identify competitor‘s
concepts early
2
Strategist
ƒ Create visions
ƒ Provide strategic
guidance
ƒ Consolidate opinions
3
Opponent
ƒ Assess and reposition
R&D portfolios
ƒ Challange basic assumptions (customer needs, technological development, political and regulatory issues)
ƒ Identify new business
ƒ Challange state-of-the-art of current R&D projects
models and changes in
business logic
ƒ Scan for disruptions that might endanger current and future innovaitons
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
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One example of a foresight activity which plays the
Initiator role are the Foresight Radars of DT.
Example of for the Initiator role: Deutsche Telekom’s “Foresight Radars”
ƒ Identification of emerging trends
Technology Radar
(complete scanning every
4 months)
ƒ Technologies
ƒ Product & Services
ƒ Continuous scanning
ƒ Coupled to corporate and divisional
innovation management processes
Product & Service
Radar
(complete scanning every
4 months)
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
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60
At British Telekom the strategic foresight unit plays
primarily the opponent role.
Engagement with internal stakeholders
ƒ Strategic foresighters continuously
challenge innovation teams and engage
with strategic management.
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
61
Culture
ƒPromoting an external view and engaging
actively with internal customers
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
62
General Electric ensures that all employees participate in
the foresight effort with promoting the appropriate traits.
Making every employee a foresighter
ƒ Growth traits defines environmental
scanning and external networks as
desirable
ƒ In
each annual
review the
growth traits
Best
Practice
examples.
are tracked and promoted
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
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Conclusion.
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
Recommendations.
Recommendations
i
Information Usage
Method sophistication
ƒ Make sure to scan in all relevant areas and monitor key
developments.
ƒ Use methods with high communicative and integrative
capacity.
People & Networks
ƒ Select foresighters willing to bring value to the company
ƒ Encourage every employee to build an external network
Organization
ƒ Ensure that bottom-up processes are in place, ensuring
that important information will reach top management
Culture
ƒ Encourage external and internal networks
ƒ Encourage assumptions to be challenged
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
65
Conclusion.
Status
Need for
Increasing interest
Benchmarking
in advancing practices throughout
different industries and countries
and facilitation of mutual learning and
development of best-practices
Low capabilities
Bringing CF into education
within benchmarking sample and no
consistent SF systems
and introducing methods and tools to
manage the future into higher
education curricula
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
66
Thank you for your interest!
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
Thank you for your interest!
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden
Chair for Technology and Innovation
Management
Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin
+49 30 314-26090 (Tel)
hans.gemuenden@tim.tu-berlin.de
www.tim.tu-berlin.de
René Rohrbeck
EICT GmbH
Head of Innovation Management
Ernst-Reuter-Platz 7, 10587 Berlin
+49 30 367023522 (Tel)
rene.rohrbeck@eict.de
www.euroCF.org
Dr. Katharina Hölzle
Chair for Technology and Innovation
Management
Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin
+49 30 314-26732 (Tel)
katharina.hoelzle@tim.tu-berlin.de
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
68
Backup.
The strong French research tradition on foresight has
little connection to German and Anglo-Saxon research.
Anglo-Saxon
German
French
ƒ
Strategic Issue
Management
ƒ
Strategische
Frühaufklärung
ƒ
Intelligence
Économique
ƒ
Environmental
Scanning
ƒ
Früherkennung
ƒ
Veille Stratégique
ƒ
Frühwarnung
ƒ
Prospective
ƒ
Peripheral Vision
ƒ
Zukunftsforschung
ƒ
Forecasting
ƒ
Strategic Foresight
ƒ
Intelligence
ƒ
Futures Studies
ƒ
Corporate Foresight
Little cross-referencing
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
70
euroSF 2007
Presentations in this conference
Integrating Market and Customer
Scouting into Strategic and Operative
Innovation Management
Strategic Foresight for Strategic and
Innovation
Planning
Operative
$$$
Internal Collaboration
for Strategic Foresight
at British Telecom
Tools
Using Roadmapping for
Business and Product Planning
i
Methods and Tools of
Strategic Foresight at Deutsche
Telekom
Integrating Foresight in
Technology Management at
Telecom Austria
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
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71
Ideally companies scan continuously in all areas of the environment.
Information Usage
Political
Foresight
i
Examples
Technological
Foresight
ƒ New power plants have to be CCSready
Current
Business
ƒ Super critical power plant is market
ready
ƒ Demand for gas turbines worldwide is
growing rapidly.
ƒ Plug-in hybrids become a major issue
in Germany
Information Usage
Adjacent
areas
Current
Business
ƒ Battery technology improvements
boost the plug-in hybrid development
ƒ Major competitor puts effort into micro
gas turbines for CHP
White
spaces
Customer
Foresight
ƒ Backstop-Technology-Scenario:
Need for current power generation
technologies disappears abruptly
Competitor
Foresight
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
72
Context
Context
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
$$$
• Nature of the strategy
Nature of
strategy
Complexity
Volatility
Differentiation criteria (Innovation leader,Information
Organization
usage
Cost leader, etc.), growth orientation
i
• Complexity
Capabilities
Industry structure, channel structure,
regulations, dependence of global
economy, etc.
Method
Communicative
• Volatility
sophistication
Interweavement
Number of surprises by high-impact events
in past three events, market growth, etc.
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
Reacting on
threats and
opportunities
Shaping the
future
Reducing
uncertainty
73
Information usage
Context
• Reach
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
Scanning in core areas or adjacent areas or
white spaces
•Nature
Scope
of
Organization
Scanning extends into
political, technology,
strategy
consumer, and competitor environment
Capabilities
•Complexity
Time horizon
Emphasis on short term vs. active
Volatility
management of short, medium and long
term
Communicative
Interweavement
• Sources
Formal vs. informal
$$$
i
Information
usage
Method
sophistication
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
Reacting on
threats and
opportunities
Shaping the
future
Reducing
uncertainty
74
Method sophistication
Context
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
• Integration capacity
Cross-functional, cross-divisional, crossknowledge domain, etc.
•Nature
Match
of with problem
Organization
Decision-oriented, communication-oriented,
strategy
exploration-oriented
•Complexity
Match with context
Match with time horizon, match with
Volatility
volatility of environment, etc.
Communicative
Interweavement
$$$
i
Information
usage
Capabilities
Method
sophistication
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
Reacting on
threats and
opportunities
Shaping the
future
Reducing
uncertainty
75
7
People & Networks
The capability benchmark is framed by the context of the company and the value
creation in terms of reaction to threats and opportunities and shaping the future.
Context
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
• Characteristics of Foresighter
$$$
Broad knowledge, internal and external
Nature of
strategy
Organization
Complexity
Volatility
People &
Networks
network
Reacting on
Information
• Network usage
scope
threats and
Consciously managed internal opportunities
and
Capabilitiesexternal network
• Internal communication Shaping the
future
Insights are diffused rapidly in a formal
Method
and informal manner
sophistication
i
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
The research framework
The capability benchmark is framed by the context of the company and the value
creation in terms of reaction to threats and opportunities and shaping the future.
Context
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
• Mode
Nature of
strategy
Organization
Complexity
Volatility
People &
Networks
$$$
bottom-up vs. top-down; continuous
scanning
vs. project based
Reacting on
Information
threats and
usage
• Integration
with other processes
opportunities
e.g. innovation management, strategic
Capabilitiesmanagement, corporate development
Shaping the
• Accountability
future
responsibility
to detect weak signals
Method
• Incentives
sophistication
to reward wider vision
i
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
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77
The research framework
The capability benchmark is framed by the context of the company and the value
creation in terms of reaction to threats and opportunities and shaping the future.
Context
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
Nature of
strategy
$$$
• Willingness to share across
functions
Reacting on
Capabilities
Complexity
Volatility
People &
Networks
Information
• Readiness
scoutsand
and
usage to listen to threats
opportunities
external sources
i
Organization
• Willingness to test andShaping
challenge
the
basic assumptions
future
Method
• Organization's
attitude towards
sophistication
the periphery
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
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The research framework
The capability benchmark is framed by the context of the company and the value
creation in terms of reaction to threats and opportunities and shaping the future.
Context
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
• Reacting to threats and
opportunities
Nature of
strategy
Complexity
Volatility
$$$
Did foresight enable, enhance or accelerate
the reaction to threats and opportunities?
Information
Organization
usage
• Shaping the future
Did foresight enable or enhance the
Capabilities
capability to influence
the future?
i
• Reducing uncertainty
Did foresight create a better understanding
Method
People
& the uncertainty in the environment
about
sophistication
Networks
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
Reacting on
threats and
opportunities
Shaping the
future
Reducing
uncertainty
79
Maturity levels – Information usage
Items
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Reach
Scanning only in current
business
Scanning in current
business and areas of
interest
Scanning in current and
adjacent business
Scanning in current
business, adjacent
business and in white
spaces
Scope
Not usable to
communication
Scanning technologies
and poorly some other
areas
Scanning the areas of the
environment to a different
extend
Scanning in all areas
(Technology, political,
competitor, customer)
Time Horizon
Emphasis on short term
Short and medium term
are taken into account (12 product life cycles)
Long, medium and short
term are taken into
account
Pro-active scanning in
long, medium and short
term in place
Source
Use of few and easily
accessible sources
Use of multiple easily
accessible sources
Use of some restricted
sources that provide
competitive advantage
Use of many sources that
provide competitive
advantage
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
80
Maturity levels – Method sophistication
Items
Integration
capacity
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Integration methods are
used, but do not integrate
in all three dimensions
Level 4
Used methods are
capable of integrating,
scope, reach and time
horizon of foresight
No integration
Some integration
methods are used
Communication
capacity
Not usable to
communication
Some methods are
known that facilitate
internal communication
Match with
problem
No deliberate method
selection
In some parts of the
company methods are
chosen deliberately
In most parts of the
company methods are
chosen deliberately
Methods are deliberately
selected to match the
business issue or
decision to take
Match with
context
No deliberate method
selection
In some parts of the
company methods are
chosen deliberately
Most parts of the
company choose
methods deliberately
Type of method and effort
is consistent with context
of company
Some methods are used
Methods allow for internal
that help with internal
and external
communication and some
communication
that facilitate external
communication are know
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
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81
Maturity levels – People & networks
Items
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Characteristics
of Foresighters
Foresighters have
knowledge in their
domain
Foresighters have both
deep and broad
knowledge
Foresighters have broad
knowledge and a good
external network
Foresighters have a
strong internal and
external network and
wide interest
Network scope
An isolated foresight unit
reports often to the CTO
An isolated foresight unit
has a good external
network
The foresight unit has
good external and
some internal contacts
Clearly identified and
managed network of
internal and external
partners for foresight
Internal
Communication
The diffusion of insights
relies on irregular formal
communication
Insights are shared in
regular domain specific
meetings
Insights are shared in
issue- and domainspecific meetings
Insights are diffused
rapidly in a formal and
informal manner
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
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82
Maturity levels – Culture
Items
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Willingness to
share across
functions
Poor: Information is
ignored and hoarded
Exchange of information
is rare and happens only
in predefined formal
channels
Exchange of information
is happening in multiple
levels but mostly in
formalized channels.
Excellent: Ongoing
information sharing on
multiple levels
Readiness to
listen to scouts
and external
sources
The organization is
closed. Contacts to the
outside are discouraged.
Some external personal
contacts are called upon,
but gathered insights are
disguised as coming from
the inside
Personal contacts are
regarded as valuable.
Few have a variety of
external contacts.
The organization is open.
Building and maintaining
an external network is
encouraged
Organization's
attitude
towards the
periphery
Limited and myopic: few
people care
Some people are looking
into the periphery, but
they are not known and
called upon
Some people are looking
into the periphery, they
are known but not called
upon regularly
Active and curious:
Scanning the periphery is
commonplace
Willingness to
test and
challenge basic
assumptions
The basic assumptions
are neither known nor
made transparent
Some basic assumptions
are known but not
challenged
There is a good
understanding about
basic assumptions and
their are tested
Basic assumptions are
explicit, much talked
about and frequently
challenged
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
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Culture
Context
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
$$$
Complexity
i
Organization
Volatility
Information
usage
Capabilities
People &
Networks
Method
sophistication
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
Reduction of
uncertainty
Reacting to
threats and
opportunities
Shaping the
future
84
Using the Maturity Model to
design Corporate Foresight
systems.
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
To use the Maturity Model to design corporate foresight
systems a three step approach can be used.
Findings from past research
ƒ Contextual factors that drive the need for a high maturity level are:
1st step
Choosing overall
target maturity level
2nd
step
Choosing to follow a
structural or cultural
approach
3rd step
Choosing maturity
levels for individual
capabilities
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
Large company size,
Following a differentiation strategy,
high environmental complexity
high industry clock speed
ƒ Choosing the emphasis on structure or culture depends on the
context factor corporate culture
ƒ Corporate culture is empowering the individual, then the cultural capabilities
should be emphasized
ƒ Corporate culture is build on clear responsibilities and clearly defined processes
than the structural capabilities should be emphasized
ƒ Companies using a specific source of competitive advantage should
emphasize (technological leaderships, customer understanding)
ƒ Companies in high clockspeed environments should emphasize
ƒ scanning into adjacent business and white spaces
ƒ using methods with high communication capacity
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
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Within the five capability dimensions the aspired maturity
level is chosen on the basis of a context analysis.
Capability dimensions
Maturity levels
Highest possible
value
4
3
i
2
1
Attained maturity
level
The aspired maturity level depend on:
ƒ Size of company
ƒ Nature of strategy
ƒ Complexity of environment
ƒ Industry clockspeed
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
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To customize and improve specific CF capabilities the
Model’s maturity level descriptions can be used.
Exem
plary
Items
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Reach
Scanning only in current
business
Scanning in current
business and areas of
interest
Scanning in current and
adjacent business
Scanning in current
business, adjacent
business and in white
spaces
Scope
Focus on technology
scanning
Scanning technologies
and poorly some other
areas
Scanning the areas of the
environment to a different
extend
Scanning in all areas
(Technology, political,
competitor, customer)
Time horizon
Emphasis on short term
Short and medium term
are taken into account (12 product life cycles)
Long, medium and short
term are taken into
account
Pro-active scanning in
long, medium and short
term in place
Sources
Use of few and easily
accessible sources
Use of multiple easily
accessible sources
Use of some restricted
sources that provide
competitive advantage
Use of many sources that
provide competitive
advantage
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
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Data from SF survey.
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
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89
European Benchmarking Study on Strategic Foresight
Survey
ƒ Data: 83 companies
ƒ Partners:
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
Sample
Revenue in 2007
[in EURO]
ƒ The sample consist of large
companies
n = 83
35
30
ƒ 78% have an annual revenue of
above 1 Billion Euro
18
42%
36%
22%
100 Million 1 Billion
- 1 Billion - 10 Billion
Above
10 Billion
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
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9
Sample
Business Activities
n = 83
70
ƒ The sample consist primarily of
multinational companies
ƒ 84% have worldwide operations
84%
7
1
regional
8%
5
6%
national continent
al
world
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
Sample
Industries
[clustered]
ƒ Engineering
n = 83
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
Other
Engineering
13%
Retail
27%
4%
Energy
ƒ Service
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
8%
Consumer 8%
Goods
42,2%
14%
21,7%
Service
12%
36,1%
Hightech
13%
Chemicals /
Medical
Automotive
Mechanical Engineering
Aerospace
Construction
Transport / Logistics
Telecommunication
Finance / Insurance
ƒ Chemicals / Medical
ƒ Hightech
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
IT / Software
Electronics
Consumer Goods
Energy
Retail
Other
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
93
Information Sources
Informal Sources
Formal Sources
regularlyoccasionally
regularly occasionally
Newspapers, Magazines,
Financial Reports
Internal Networks
Internet, Databases
Personal Contacts and
Networks
Public Statistics
Conferences, Exhibitions,
Seminars
Patent Databases
Customer and Expert
Interviews
Reports (public, private)
University-Industry
Collaborations
Publication Databases
Public R&D Programs
"Think Tanks",
Future Researchers,
Foresight Consultancie
R&D Collaborations,
Joint Ventures
Venture Capital Market
Expert Panels
0%
20%
40%
60%
80% 100%
0%
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
20%
40%
60%
80% 100%
94
Method Usage
Methods used by the participants
regularly occasionally
regularly occasionally
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Trend Impact Analysis
Environmental Monitoring
Stakeholder Analysis
Focus Groups
(Panels, Workshops)
Extrapolation
Interviews
Text Mining
Future Workshops
Analogies
Roadmapping
Backcasting
Vision Generation
Delphi Method
Scenario Analysis
Cross-Impact Analysis
Decision Matrix
Environmental Scanning
Socioeconomic
Impact Analysis
Simulations
Correlation Analysis
TRIZ
Business Wargaming
0%
20%
40%
60%
80% 100%
0%
20%
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
40%
60%
80% 100%
95
Information Usage
Percentage of “agree”
0
Exclusive Sources
20
40
57%
100
Top Perfomer
All
100% 100%
80%
100% 100%
Internal Networks
Conferences
80
75% 75%
Internet
External Networks
60
82%
100% 100%
63%
83% 83%
58%
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
96
Method Usage
Percentage of “agree”
0
20
40
60
80
63%
Deliberate Selection
63%
54%
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
Top Perfomer
All
97
Characteristics of a Corporate Foresighter
Percentage of „agree“
0
20
40
60
80
86%
Strong Internal
Network
86%
73%
100
Top Perfomer
All
85%
Strong External
Network
85%
67%
100%
Broad
Knowledge
100%
71%
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
98
Networks for Diffusion of Information
Percentage of „agree“
0
Effective Diffusion
20
40
60
43%
23%
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
Top Perfomer
All
99
Organisation of Corporate Foresight
Percentage of „agree“
0
20
60
80
Top Perfomer
All
38%
Top-Down Process
established
48%
50%
Bottom-Up Process
established
27%
Issue driven
Field Search
75%
69%
75%
Continous CF Activities
Every employee responsible
for detecting weak signals
40
69%
13%
18%
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
100
Cultural Considerations
Percentage of „agree“
0
20
88%
Building and maintaining an
external network is encouraged
40
60
80
88%
62%
50%
100
Top Perfomer
All
46%
Information is shared freely across
functions and hierarchical levels
46%
25%
Basic assumptions are
frequently challenged
25%
28%
13%
Employees actively scan 13%
the companys environment
18%
Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
101