SERV-2A - Mutrap
Transcription
SERV-2A - Mutrap
9th Floor, Minexport Building, 28 Ba Trieu, Ha Noi, Viet Nam Tel: 04 62702158 Fax: 04 62702138 Email: mutrap@mutrap.org.vn; Website: www.mutrap.org.vn REPORT THE “COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGY FOR SERVICE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT TO THE YEAR 2020 (CSSSD) WITH A VISION UP TO 2025” ACTIVITY CODE: SERV-2A Final Report 12/2009 Submitted by: Andras Lakatos Michel Kostecki Andrea Spears Daniel Linotte Nguyen Hong Son Nguyen Duc Kien Nguyen Manh Hung Le Trieu Dzung Pham Thi Phuong Nguyen Son Tran Minh Tuan Doan Thai Son This document has been prepared with financial assistance from the Commission of the European Union. The views expressed herein are those of the author and therefore in no way reflect the official opinion of the Commission nor the Ministry of Industry and Trade CONTENTS INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................. 7 PART I: A VISION AND STRATEGY FOR VIET NAM'S SERVICES SECTOR ................... 8 CHAPTER 1: FRAMEWORK FOR BUILDING A VISION AND STRATEGY FOR SERVICE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT IN VIET NAM................................................................ 8 1.1 What role for the State in Developing the Services Sector? ........................................................ 12 1.2 A few stylized facts about service; What can the State do to develop the service sector, and what it cannot? ................................................................................................................................... 15 1.3 Main Issue Areas That Need to Be Addressed by a Comprehensive Strategy for Service Sector Development ........................................................................................................................... 21 CHAPTER 2: THE RATIONALE AND FOUNDATIONS FOR A VIETNAMESE SERVICES SECTOR STRATEGY - CURRENT STATE AND DEVELOPMENT ISSUES OF THE SERVICE SECTOR IN VIET NAM ............................................................... 31 2.1 The Importance of the Service Sector in the Vietnamese Economy ............................................ 31 2.2 Current level of development of the services sector .................................................................... 38 2.3 Structure of the Vietnamese Service Industry .............................................................................. 45 2.4 Profiles of Service Firms in Viet Nam ......................................................................................... 51 2.5 Competitiveness Issues Related to Development of Service Sector ............................................ 55 2.6 Viet Nam’s Trade in Services ...................................................................................................... 60 2.7 Trends in Demand for Vietnamese Services ................................................................................ 62 2.8 Viet Nam’s services gap ............................................................................................................... 66 CHAPTER 3: THE PREREQUISITES FOR STIMULATING THE SERVICES SECTOR GROWTH........................................................................................................................ 69 3.1 Key drivers of growth and supporting infrastructure for development of the service sector in Viet Nam ............................................................................................................................................ 69 3.2 What Stimulates Growth in the Service Economy? ..................................................................... 71 3.3 Foreign and Domestic Competition in Services ........................................................................... 82 CHAPTER 4: THE STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT OF COMPETITIVENESS WITHIN THE SERVICES SECTOR - COMPETITIVENESS AND EFFECTIVENESS OF SERVICES IN VIET NAM....................................................................................................... 84 4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 84 4.2 The scope of this study ................................................................................................................. 86 4.3 Competitiveness analysis (I): quantitative analysis ..................................................................... 86 4.4 Contribution of services to GDP growth ...................................................................................... 93 4.5 Competitiveness analysis (II): qualitative analysis ...................................................................... 93 4.6 Effectiveness of the services sector .............................................................................................. 98 2 4.7 Policy recommendations ............................................................................................................ 103 CHAPTER 5: TRADE IN SERVICES: WHAT STRATEGY FOR VIET NAM? ............. 108 5.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 108 5.2 The Framework of Inquiry ......................................................................................................... 109 5.3 Economic Development and Service Trade in Viet Nam .......................................................... 112 5.4 The Impact of Policy Reforms in Services on Trade and Economic Performance .................... 117 5.5 The Prerequisites for Stimulating Growth of Trade in Services ................................................ 119 5.6 Strategic Recommendations for Development of Viet Nam’s Trade In Services ...................... 120 5.7 Servicing Foreign Owners of Equipment Temporarily Transferred to Viet Nam ..................... 127 5.8 Developing Trade-related Services Offered to Exporters and Importer .................................... 129 5.10 Developing Foreign Client-base for Viet Nam’s On-line Services.......................................... 131 5.11 Improving the Skills of Labor Inputs Offered Temporarily to Foreign Clients ....................... 131 5.12 Developing Services Offered by Firms Temporarily Based Abroad ....................................... 132 5.13 Establishing and Expending the Subsidiaries of Service Firms Abroad .................................. 134 5.14 Optimizing Imports of Services to Viet Nam........................................................................... 134 5.15 Government Action Plan for Viet Nam’s Trade in Services: Several Suggestions ................. 136 5.16 Rendering Regulations More Supportive for Exports of Services ........................................... 138 CHAPTER 6: SERVICES SECTOR CAPACITY ASSESSMENT: CONSULTATION, COORDINATION AND CAPACITY TO IMPLEMENT SERVICES SECTOR POLICIES, PLANS AND INTERNATIONAL COMMITMENTS .......................................... 143 6.1 Introduction and Background ..................................................................................................... 143 6.2 The Task Ahead: Services-Related Objectives, Trends and Priorities...................................... 146 6.3 Progress since 2006 and Suggestions for Action ....................................................................... 149 6.4 Capacity-Building and Institutional Strengthening Suggestions ............................................... 170 6.5 Summary: Key Findings and Recommendations ....................................................................... 174 6.6 Sum-Up of Main Recommendations .......................................................................................... 178 CHAPTER 7: STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS.............................................................. 179 7.1 Main principles for an effective and comprehensive policy framework for services ................ 179 7.2 Remove impediments that prevent competition and demand for services ................................. 180 7.3 Remove regulatory barriers to services ...................................................................................... 181 7.4 Services Related Policy Making and Implementation ............................................................... 182 7.5 International Trade and Investment in Services ......................................................................... 185 7.6 Innovation Policy ....................................................................................................................... 185 7.7 Human Resources ....................................................................................................................... 186 7.8 Priority Services Subsectors ....................................................................................................... 186 CHAPTER 8: CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................... 188 References ........................................................................................................................................ 190 3 PART II: SECTORAL REPORTS ............................................................................................... 209 CHAPTER 1: BUSINESS AND PROFESSIONAL SERVICES ............................................... 209 1.1 Business and professional services ............................................................................................ 209 1.2 Professional services .................................................................................................................. 212 1.3 Computer and related services ................................................................................................... 220 1.4 Research and developments services ......................................................................................... 222 1.5 Other business services .............................................................................................................. 223 CHAPTER 2: INSURANCE AND SECURITY SERVICES ..................................................... 232 INSURANCE SECTOR................................................................................................................. 232 2.1 Current status of insurance sector in Viet Nam.......................................................................... 233 2.2 Existing law and regulations governing insurance sector in Viet Nam ..................................... 237 2.3 The impact of WTO accession on insurance sector ................................................................... 242 2.4 Trade in insurance services ........................................................................................................ 245 2.5 Major Issues & Trends ............................................................................................................... 246 2.6 Key drivers of insurance sector growth and development ......................................................... 248 2.7 Overall goals and policy recommendations for comprehensive development of insurance services in Viet Nam ........................................................................................................................ 254 2.8 Policy recommendations ............................................................................................................ 254 SECURITIES SECTOR ................................................................................................................ 256 2.1 The 10 years development of Viet Nam securities market and services .................................... 257 2.2 The evolution of the Viet Nam securities market (2000-2008) ................................................. 265 2.3 Current regulatory framework for securities services in Viet Nam ........................................... 273 2.4 Some diagnostic assessment on the Viet Nam securities market ............................................... 276 2.6 Foundation for sustainable development of securities service in Viet Nam .............................. 283 2.7 Recommendations to develop and improve the efficiency of the Viet Nam securities market . 285 CHAPTER 3: BANKING SERVICES ......................................................................................... 290 3.1 Overview of reform process in banking sector .......................................................................... 290 3.2 Importance and structure of banking service sector ................................................................... 291 3.3 Current level of development ..................................................................................................... 293 3.4 Development issues .................................................................................................................... 296 3.5 Trends and Forecast of demand for banking services in the medium and long term ................. 307 3.6 Service Gap ................................................................................................................................ 308 3.7 SWOT Analysis.......................................................................................................................... 309 3.8 Macroeconomic stability is a necessary condition for the sustainability and growth of the banking sector .................................................................................................................................. 311 3.9 An Enabling Business Environment for Banking Service Growth ............................................ 312 3.10 High quality human resource is a necessary condition for developing banking services ........ 312 4 3.11 Strengthening protection of creditor's right and establishment of effective bankruptcy mechanism are essential in heightening confidence in banking sector and contributing to the growth of banking services .............................................................................................................. 313 3.12 Recommendations on banking service development strategy up to the year 2020 and vision to the year 2025 ..................................................................................................................... 314 CHAPTER 4: TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES ............................................................ 319 4.1 Current State and Development Issues of the Telecommunication Sector in Viet Nam ........... 319 4.2 Viet Nam business environment industry SWOT ...................................................................... 335 4.3 The prerequisites for stimulating the services sector growth ..................................................... 336 4.4 Regulatory Developments .......................................................................................................... 344 4.5 Commitment of Viet Nam after WTO in telecoms sector ......................................................... 346 4.6 Recommendations for development goals up to the year 2020 and Vision to the year 2025 for the Vietnamese service sector..................................................................................................... 352 4.7 Main solutions ............................................................................................................................ 360 4.8 The missions of Ministries, Branches, enterprises ..................................................................... 365 CHAPTER 5: PUBLIC SERVICES ............................................................................................. 368 5.1 The rationale for developing public services in Viet Nam......................................................... 368 5.2 Current State and Development Issues of the public services in Viet Nam ............................... 373 5.3 The prerequisites for stimulating the development of public services in Viet Nam .................. 380 5.4 Key public services to promote socio-economic development .................................................. 393 5.5 Improve maternal health............................................................................................................. 404 5.6 Reduce HIV/AIDS infection and eradicate other major diseases .............................................. 404 5.7 Recommendations for Goals and Vision for the Development of Public Services in Viet Nam to the year 2020 and 2025 ....................................................................................................... 407 5.8 Recommendation for Guidelines and Measures to develop public services in Viet Nam ......... 412 CHAPTER 6: TRANSPORT SERVICES ................................................................................... 417 6.1 Executive summary .................................................................................................................... 417 6.2 Current status and development issues of the transport services in Viet Nam .......................... 418 6.3 The prerequisites for stimulating transport services growth; key drivers of growth and supporting infrastructure for development of the transport services in Viet Nam ........................... 434 6.4 Overall goals and strategic recommendations for comprehensive development of transport services in Viet Nam ........................................................................................................................ 446 6.5 Recommended policy orientation and action plan for transport services in Viet Nam.............. 450 CHAPTER 7: POLICY AND LEGAL FRAMEWORK ON SERVICE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT........................................................................................................................... 454 7.1 Introductions............................................................................................................................... 454 7.2 Current policy and legal framework on services sector development ....................................... 454 7.3 Development concerns relating to the legal framework and policy on service sector in Viet Nam .................................................................................................................................................. 460 5 7.4 Recommendations ...................................................................................................................... 470 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................... 472 APPENDIXES ................................................................................................................................ 482 Appendix 1. Liberalization Commitments in Banking Services ...................................................... 482 Appendix 2. The benefits and risks of banking services liberalization ............................................ 488 Appendix 3. Profile of major banks ................................................................................................. 490 Appendix 4: Profiles of the Major Service Firms in Viet Nam – Operators .................................... 494 Appendix 5: Decree no. 121/2008/ND-CP December 3, 2008, on investment activities in the post and telecommunications sector ................................................................................................. 515 Appendix 6: Forecast Modelling ...................................................................................................... 522 6 INTRODUCTION This study report, jointly written by a team of international and Vietnamese experts has been commissioned by the Multilateral Trade Assistance Project III (EU - Viet Nam MUTRAP III), which is executed by the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam in partnership with the European Commission, under its Activity SERV-2A 1. The report’s aim is to support the Ministry of Planning and Investment in devising the “Comprehensive Strategy for Services Sector Development (CSSSD) to the year 2020” as required by Resolution 16/2007/NQ-CP on “the implementation of major policies to accelerate and stabilize the economic development after the accession to the WTO”. The specific objective of the report is to assist the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) and the Interagency Task Force (ITF) in finalizing the draft of the “Comprehensive Strategy for Services Sector Development” (CSSSD) for subsequent submission to the Government for approval. This report builds on, and supplements and earlier report, the “General Framework for a National Strategy for the Services Sector in Viet Nam up to 2020” (GFSS) released in 2006, which itself was part of a larger three-year project funded by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) on “Capacity Strengthening to Manage and Promote Trade in Services in Viet Nam in the Context of Integration” (or “Trade in Services” Project VIE/02/009). The Ministry of Planning and Investment is the national executing agency of the Project, while the Department of Trade and Services of the MPI is serving as the implementing agency. The GFSS provided a comprehensive analysis of challenges and recommendations on how to address these challenges and still remains a sound basis for jump-starting the finalization of the draft CSSSD 2010-2020 and a vision until 2025. Given the time and human resource constraints of the activity SERV-2A, the present report could not have the same level of ambition as that of the GFSS in terms of scope of field research, details of sector-specific analyses or policy networking. In addition, as the time lapsed since the GFSS (3 years) is rather short from the perspective of a 15year-long strategy and vision, replicating the GFSS exercise would not have resulted in a fundamentally different analysis and set of policy options. Therefore, when preparing the present study report, the authors have refrained from duplicating the GFSS, and rather they preferred to focus – in agreement with the beneficiary of the SERV-2a activity, the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) – on complementing the GFSS and recommendations for the main directions for preparation of the CSSSD. Part I of the report was drafted by DMI experts, while Part II contains the background reports written by PTF experts. 1 “Formulation of the Draft Comprehensive Strategy for Services Sector Development to the year 2020 and a vision to 2025” 7 PART I: A VISION AND STRATEGY FOR VIET NAM'S SERVICES SECTOR CHAPTER 1: FRAMEWORK FOR BUILDING A VISION AND STRATEGY FOR SERVICE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT IN VIET NAM For the last two or three decades there has been growing attention among economists, and to a lesser degree policy makers, to the contribution of service industries to the processes of economic development throughout the world. However, the value of service industries to the economy is still often underrated; manufacturing still attracts most of the political and administrative energy when it comes, for example, to designing tax, trade and support policies. Nevertheless, there is an increasing recognition of the importance of services, in part because they have become increasingly interconnected with the goods sectors as a way of enabling the latter to remain competitive. Despite differences in structures of production and employment, modern economies, developed and developing alike, all share a common feature: a significant and increasing share of services. Among OECD countries, the service sector has become the most important provider of both output and jobs; this sector accounted on average for roughly two-thirds of total gross value added and employment in 2000. In developing countries, too, the share of services has risen relative to total value added. The adequate provision of services is increasingly recognized as one of the preconditions for - rather than a result of - development. For instance, inadequate infrastructure services, such as poor telecommunications and transport networks or a weak financial system, are perceived as critical bottlenecks for sustainable development. Distribution, trade finance, insurance, marketing and other business services are complementary to the healthy growth of industrial activities. 2 It is now accepted that services play a critical role in determining both the quality and speed of the process of economic development, and that a competitive economy cannot exist without an efficient and technologically advanced service sector. Before the economic reforms in the transitional economy countries of Europe and Asia, the political attention to services was practically non-existent. Services industries were generally neglected under central planning as Marxist political economy stressed the importance of the production of tangible (material) goods as determinants of economic development, and treated the services sector as unproductive. Policy makers and economy planners focused on industrialization and exportable products. The neglect of services was reinforced by the difficulties of planning services as opposed to planning demand and production of tangible goods. To the extent services have been dealt with by governments of socialist countries, attention was broadly limited to basic social services (health and education) and infrastructure services (energy, transportation, telecommunications, postal services) with focus on their goods aspects. In the pre-reforms conditions of transitional economies, State-ownership and lack of competition in the economy prevented the emergence of many services and those, which existed, suffered from underdevelopment. Many of the services that are critical to the functioning of a market economy simply did not exist not just a financial sector that could allocate investment funds efficiently, but also design, advertising, packaging, distribution, logistics, management, after sales services, etc. The lack of producer services was reflected in transport bottlenecks, queuing for and low quality of 2 Bernard Chane-Kune, Kiichiro Fukasaku, Jean-Christophe Maur and Ramkishen S. Rajan: “Liberalisation and Competition in the Service Sectors: Experiences from Europe and Asia”, in “Asia and Europe: Services Liberalisation”, OECD, Paris, 2003 8 telecommunications, the absence of efficient financial intermediation, and much lower employment in services than was the case in market economies. 3 Similar was the situation in Viet Nam before Doi Moi. There was no explicit policy or growth target developed for services; what was worse, no legal and regulatory frameworks existed for services. Trade in services was almost ignored in reports on economic relations between Viet Nam and the outside world. 4 Viet Nam’s services sector has been progressively opening up since the market-oriented reforms of Doi Moi was launched, and this resulted in spectacular development of the sector, which is accelerating since the country’s accession to the World Trade Organization. The revealed economic gains from the services sector development have attracted a much higher level of policy attention during the last 15 years. 5 Viet Nam’s National Economic Development Plan for 1996-2000 set ambitious targets, which however were not completely met, for an annual rate of growth in services of 12%-13% and a services share in GDP of 45%-46% by 2000. The Development Strategy for 2001-2010 issued by the 9th Communist Party Congress also focused on the services sector, setting revised targets of an average annual rate of growth of 7-8% and a targeted services share of 42-43% in GDP and 26-27% in employment by 2010. Since the 6th Party Congress, a number of major market-oriented and liberalizing reforms have been launched during the Doi Moi period, many of them affecting directly or indirectly service activities. However, enhanced market openness measured in terms of FDI inflow has mostly benefited the manufacturing sector, while within the service sector it was concentrated to a few, non-strategic service sub-sectors, mainly hotels and restaurants, real estate, renting and business activities. 6 While FDI was partly channelled to telecommunications, the overall policy approach to strategic sectors was very cautious, and a significant, yet gradual and partial, degree of market liberalization in core infrastructural areas (e.g. energy and telecommunications) dates only since the late 1990s. In the domain of financial services, affected by the burden of numerous non-performing loans, initial reforms of the late 1980s, resulted in the replacement of the mono-bank system with a two-tier banking system, as the function of the Central bank was separated from those of the four new Stateowned commercial banks (SOCBs). Later, limited participation of private actors, and representative offices, and branches of foreign banks were gradually allowed to enter the Vietnamese financial market. 7 The overall GDP indicators for the period 2005-2008 8 show that in spite of a better services sector performance than that of industry/construction in terms of SEDP 2006-2020 targets, no 3 Felix Eschenbach and Bernard Hoekman: Services Policy Reform and Economic Growth in Transition Economies, Review of World Economics, Volume 142, Number 4 / December, 2006 4 Pham Chi Lan, Member of the Advisory Board to the Prime Minister: Designing a National Services Export Strategy for Vietnam, ITC Executive Forum on National Export Strategies, 5-8 October 2005, Montreux, Switzerland 5 Pham Chi Lan 6 See Table 8 in Ministry of Planning and Investment: “Support To Socio-Economic Development Monitoring” Results-Based Mid-Term Review Report For Implementation of the Five-Year Socio-Economic Development Plan 20062010, Project 00040722, Hanoi, May 2009 7 Alberto Gabriele: Strategic Services Policies and International Trade Integration in Vietnam, Journal of Economic Integration 20(2), June 2005; 263-293 8 See Ministry of Planning and Investment: “Support To Socio-Economic Development Monitoring” - Results-Based Mid-Term Review Report For Implementation of the Five-Year Socio-Economic Development Plan 2006-2010, Project 00040722, Hanoi, May 2009 9 breakthrough has been achieved in structural adjustment, and the service sector’s contribution to GDP growth still falls behind the secondary sector. Annual data and forecast 2004a 2005 a 2006 a 2007 a Nominal GDP 45.4 52.9 60.9 71.0 (US$ bn) Real GDP growth 7.8 8.4 8.2 8.5 (%) Origin of GDP (% real change) Agriculture 4.4 4.0 3.4 3.7 Industry 10.3 10.7 10.4 10.6 Services 7.3 8.5 8.3 8.7 a Notes: Actual b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. Source: ASEAN Economic Bulletin, Vol. 26, No. 1, April 2009 10 2008b 90.4 2009c 89.6 2010 c 99.3 6.2a 3.0 4.0 3.8a 6.3a 7.2a 3.0 2.5 3.6 3.0 4.5 4.0 Sectoral composition of Viet Nam’s GDP: 1992 – 2004 (in percent of GDP) Source: Chu Thi Trung Hau and Paul M. Dickie: Economic Transition in Viet Nam: Doi Moi to WTO, ADB, 2006 Since its WTO accession early 2007, Viet Nam’s economy continued to grow rapidly and in 2007, GDP growth remained high at 8,5%, compared to that of 8,2 per cent in 2006. However, the year 2008 has seen economic activities to slow down and economic growth rate was only 6,2% which reflected investors’ fear of macroeconomic instability and global financial crisis and recession. 9 Das and Shrestha (2009) foresee for 2009 macroeconomic conditions that will not permit in the short run a more dynamic development of the services sector. It is predicted that FDI, which was an important driver for growth of the Vietnamese economy, will be severely curtailed on lack of available financing. Liquidity for banks is also expected to dry up, partly because banks are refusing to lend to other financial institutions that may not be able to pay back loans, which, in turn, will adversely affect the overall investment growth in the economy. On the supply side, in addition to weakness in the industrial sector, services growth will also suffer as a result of the global financial crisis and recessionary conditions in many developed countries. In 2009 tourism receipts will decline, with other imports of trade-related services. The upward trend in the repatriation of foreign investors’ income and profits will temporarily reverse, in line with a slowdown in the operations of foreign enterprises. 10 It’s against this background that Vietnamese policy makers face the challenging task to enable the services sector to achieve on the longer run a much greater proportion of the country’s total output than it currently does. If the service sector grows more dynamically and expands its share in the economy it would increase the country’s overall economic efficiency, help strengthen the business sector, contribute to decrease unemployment, and accelerate trade and technological progress. This calls for further and deeper reforms which lead to deep structural changes which are needed if the services sector is to become the engine of Viet Nam’s economic growth. 9 Sanchita Basu Das and Omkar Lal Shrestha: Vietnam: further challenges in 2009, ASEAN Economic Bulletin, April, 2009 10 Sanchita Basu Das and Omkar Lal Shrestha: Vietnam: further challenges in 2009, ASEAN Economic Bulletin, April, 2009 11 The following sections of this Chapter first discuss the major cross-cutting issues for the further development of Viet Nam’s services sector that the CSSSD is recommended to address, then the major findings and recommendations detailed in the subsequent chapters are presented. *** 1.1 What r ole for the State in Developing the Ser vices Sector ? The first and foremost question that arises in the context of a comprehensive government strategy for developing the services sector in the context of the Vietnamese market economy with socialist orientation is: “what the government can and should do to develop the service sector”? Should it continue to produce and provide services, and if so, which ones, or should it leave services for the market and confine itself to the responsibilities of policy maker and regulatory watchdog? Similar questions also arise from time to time in some market economy countries in public discussions, for instance about deregulation and privatization of public services, as demonstrated by debates about liberalization of the postal and railways services in the EU, or the treatment of health and educational services in the GATS. However, in Western market economy countries there is a general consensus that genuinely non public services should be left for the private sector (even though the borderline between public and non public services is sometimes interpreted differently). However, in the case of transitional economies like Viet Nam, where governments (either at central or local level) have traditionally had both service supplier and regulatory functions, the issue is much wider, since state ownership is massively present in many services sectors that are normally competitive sectors (i.e. in which services could be provided by private businesses in competition with each other to provide consumers with more choice, lower prices and ostensibly better quality). The Central and East European countries all had to address these issues in the context of their transition from central planning to market economy and opted for massive elimination of state ownership, through various approaches, like the “big bang” approach of Russia and the Czech Republic or more gradual one like in the case of Hungary. However, in all Central and East European countries, the consensus seemed to be that where no genuine public goods are supplied or no strategic interests are involved, goods and services would be more efficiently produced and provided by the private than the state sector. In the case of Viet Nam’s market economy with socialist orientation, the issue is to find the optimal mix of state and private ownership. In the MPI/UNDP study “General Framework for a National Strategy for the Services Sector in Viet Nam up to 2020” (GFSS) this issue was formulated as the “need for economic planning to be balanced with market forces”. The GFSS concluded that the “challenge in a transition economy like Viet Nam is to balance central economic planning with the positive benefits of market forces. In the context of international integration, the government needs to retain enough control to make sure that social goals (such as poverty alleviation) are met while also putting in place the regulatory framework to ensure consumer protection as the market opens.” A corollary and crucial question is “which services are more efficiently supplied by the government than the private sector?” It would go beyond the scope and possibilities of this study report to answer this question; this would require an evidence-based assessment of the situation of each Vietnamese service sector, as well as the present and prospective capacities of the State and the private entrepreneurs. As the overall economic situation changes, the private sector is strengthening, new technologies are developed and become accessible, the answer should also evolve over time giving larger rooms for the private sector to provide services. Therefore, answering this question 12 should not be an one-off exercise but rather an ongoing activity which should be foreseen by the CSSSD. It is clear however, that as long as the State retains its market positions in various services sectors, it will have to pursue its role of strategic “developer” not only where it has legal monopoly, such as infrastructure services, but also where it has a de facto dominant position through the combination of State-owned enterprises, e.g. in banking and telecommunications. No doubt however, that as Viet Nam is getting closer towards a market economy with socialist orientation, the benefits of greater market openness and liberalized services markets will become apparent, and competitive private businesses will greater role in expanding the services sector. The positive and negative experience of the Central and East European countries and CIS countries of Central Asia with market opening and services sector liberalization may be useful for Viet Nam. Analyzing the correlations between services policy reforms and economic growth in European and Central-Asian transition economies, Eschenbach and Hoekman (2006) found a statistically significant positive association between reforms measures – through deregulation, re-regulation and increased contestability of services markets (including privatization and FDI) – and per capita GDP growth. The countries of Central European countries and the Baltic States where service intensity of FDI was the highest, had a substantial convergence toward OECD countries in terms of share of services in GDP, employment, output per worker, trade, and FDI, in sharp contrast with Central Asian and CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) economies. Given that trade and FDI in services can be expected to be associated with the acquisition of new technologies, higher service standards and more effective delivery, these differences should help explain the observed higher labour productivity performance in services in the Central European and the Baltic countries relative to Central Asia and the CIS. Chart 1 shows three indicators constructed by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) that measure the extent of policy reforms in banking, non-bank financial services, and infrastructure in transition economies. The value of the indices is set at zero for 1989, so that the 2004 value provides a measure of the progress that has been made by countries in converging to “best practice” standards - measured by a maximum value of 4.3. 13 Chart 1 Services Reform Index, 2004 Note: CEE = Central and Eastern European countries (Poland, Hungary, Czech and Slovak Republics, Slovenia); SEE = Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Romania, and Serbia and Montenegro; FSU1 = Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania; FSU2 = Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova; FSU3 = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia; FSU4 = Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan. Source: EBRD, quoted by Eschenbach and Hoekman (2006) The policy reforms in the financial and infrastructure services, including telecommunications, power, and transport, undertaken by the Central and Eastern European countries and the Baltic States, are highly correlated with inward FDI. These services are major inputs into the production of goods and services, including agriculture and manufacturing. The costs of these inputs account for a major share of the total cost of production, and are thus important factors affecting the competitiveness of firms. It is therefore no surprise that the differences in the Service Reform Indices are to large extent reflected by differences in economic structure and in the extents to which European and Central Asian transitional economies have converged to comparators of OECD countries (see Table 1). 14 Table 1 Changes in the Share of Services in GDP and Employment and Labour Productivity Source: Eschenbach and Hoekman (2006) 1.2 A few stylized facts about ser vice; What can the State do to develop the ser vice sector , and what it cannot? For a long time there was a clear distinction in everyday language between goods and services. Whilst, “for several decades, modern economies have been service economies, and the point of no return has long been passed” 11, there exists no consensus as to what services are and how they should be best defined. As surprising as it may be, even the General Agreement on Trade in Services of the WTO does not define services. There exists a multitude of services classifications and the one developed for GATS purposes during the Uruguay Round has never been made compulsory. This report does not 11 As noted by Gallouj (2002) 15 question the definition of services and will simply take them as understood in the WTO. However, a short discussion about the nature of services and their specificities relative to goods seems appropriate as the most important of them might have implications for understanding the nature and content of desirable policies for services. As noted by the Australian Services Roundtable (2006), good policy-making in services suffers from poor definition of the nature of services industries in economic theory and in statistical collections. This is despite the fact that services activity dominates developed economies and many developing ones. Services are very poorly understood as ‘tertiary’ activities that do not produce tangible “things” or “goods”. In the official statistical classifications, the services sector is generally defined negatively – as including all economic activity other than mining, manufacturing, agriculture, forestry and fishing – and in Viet Nam’s statistical system, construction. At the policy level, often there seems to be a general failure to capture by policy makers the nature of services relative to that of goods and therefore to design appropriate policies for services development. This failure may stem from some persistent old concepts of services, which continue to influence present-day economic and political discourses that prevent from adopting policies relating to services that would match the economic reality of the service economy. These old concepts are mainly based on the myth that “services are unproductive”. The notion of services as an unproductive activity with no economic value has its origins in the history of economic thought, and in particular in the work of Adam Smith and Marxist economists who considered services to be non-productive or parasitic, and who made a distinction between the productive work of manufacturing and the unproductive work that characterizes service activities. This concept partly explains the traditional division of economic structure in which services are negatively defined: accordingly services belong to the “tertiary” sector consisting of activities, which do not produce or modify material goods (or: “everything that is not agriculture or manufacturing”). This classification of economic activities continues to influence many present-day approaches to services. There have been many attempts to define additional sectors to the threesector classification to better capture economic realities, but none of them has been accepted by societies in general and the scientific community in particular. 12 12 Sven Illeris: “The nature of services”, in John R. Bryson and Peter W. Daniels, editors: “The Handbook of Service Industries”, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA, USA, 2007. Illeris gives a detailed description of the various proposals for 4th and 5th sectors. 16 Box 1 Debunking Myths About Asia’s Service Industries Asian economies have much to gain from an agreement on trade in services in the Doha negotiations of the World Trade Organization. Many understandably look to service exports as a source of employment and economic growth. Yet, important though this is, the emphasis on boosting offshore services risks overlooking a far larger, though less fashionable, opportunity for Asian nations – that of stimulating their domestic-services sector. Domestic services are essential to growth. They account for more than 60% of all jobs in middle-income and developed economies, and virtually all net new job creation. Given labour-saving new technologies, manufacturing is not a sustainable source of job growth for any economy. Even China, the so-called "factory floor" of the world, has shed more than 15 million manufacturing jobs since 1995. The problem is that Asian policy makers have long preferred to promote high-tech sectors, manufacturing exports, and now trade in services. For them, domestic services conjure up an image of small-scale, low-wage ventures like shoe repair and fast-food vending. But such jobs by no means form the whole picture: domestic services also comprise huge sectors crucial to economic development, including power supply, transport, retail, construction and telecommunications, as well as a range of high-skill, high-wage occupations, from accountants to advertisers and movie stars. The sheer size of domestic-service sectors makes them powerful drivers of overall GDP growth, and their share of the economy rises as countries develop. Services comprise roughly half of GDP in India and the Philippines, but a full 68% in Japan and 75% in the United States. And the quality of those services impacts growth rates in other sectors because every enterprise must use them. Efficient, good value domestic services also help to attract foreign direct investment. India's offshoring sector, for instance, did not take off until telecom reforms were adopted in the early 1990s. Yet productivity in domestic services lags far behind productivity in export sectors in nearly every Asian economy. Four prevalent myths held by Asian policy makers and propagated by some in the media are to blame. MYTH NUMBER 1: “REFORMING DOMESTIC SERVICES WON'T DO MUCH FOR PRODUCTIVITY BECAUSE THEY OFFER SO LITTLE SCOPE FOR INNOVATION.” History shows otherwise. The late 1990s boom in U.S. productivity, for instance, was due mostly to innovations in service industries like retail, wholesale, and financial services, not just high-tech sectors. MYTH NUMBER 2: SERVICE WORK.” “MANUFACTURING JOBS ARE HIGHER SKILLED AND BETTER PAID THAN On the contrary, service industries create more high-skilled occupations than manufacturing. In the U.S., for instance, more than 30% of service jobs are in the highest skill category of occupations, which includes managers, researchers, and engineers, in contrast to only 12% of all manufacturing jobs. And the distribution of wages across U.S. service and manufacturing sectors is similar. 17 MYTH NUMBER 3: “MANUFACTURING JOBS ARE MORE STABLE THAN JOBS IN SERVICES.” That can't be right, since manufacturing employment is shrinking world-wide. What is true is that service industries tend to have higher job turnover than manufacturing. Service industries as a whole create more jobs than they lose. So creating a dynamic service sector guarantees lifetime employment opportunities for everyone, if not the same job for life. The final myth is that reforming service sectors will lead to more unemployment. This fear is centered on the retail sector, where big modern stores could drive out smaller, traditional ones. But this is precisely how economies develop, resulting in a bigger national income for everyone to share and higher overall employment. This fear ignores the fact that larger stores offer lower prices and better services, which boosts demand and causes stores to hire more people. This is why the U.S., with its highly productive retail sector, employs proportionally more people in this sector than countries where traditional stores prevail. Believing these myths can hobble a country's growth. Take Japan. By 2000, its world-class export manufacturers were legendary. Yet output from the likes of Sony and Toyota comprised only 10% of GDP. Productivity in the rest of the economy – most of it in domestic services – was only 63% of U.S. levels. This is one reason why Japan's economy has stagnated since the early 1990's. It also helps explain why recent deregulation in telecoms, transport, energy, finance and retailing are estimated by Japan's Cabinet Office to have boosted GDP by 4.6% in 2002. An additional challenge is arising out from a number of characteristics that services have relative to goods. 13 • First, nature of the “product” resulting from a service is in most cases relatively fuzzy and unstable. There is (in most cases) a lack of an entity that can be distinguished – a material good that can be stored, transported, owned and sold – which means that it makes little sense to measure the product itself (for example, teaching) and hence that the basic economic concepts of GDP and productivity are difficult to apply. On the other hand, it is possible to distinguish the effects, which constitute the reasons why users demand services, and which may be very durable, as in the case of teaching. In fact, stricto sensu, there is no “service product”, rather there is a “nebulous” process. Indeed a service is a process, a sequence of operations, a formula, a protocol, a mode of organization. It is difficult, in many cases, to locate the boundaries of a service in the same way as those of a good can be fixed. • 13 Second, many services are “interactive”: they are consumed as they are being produced and involve some degree of customer participation. This means that service producers and users must be present at the same time and place, face to face, although modern telecommunications in some cases may relax this constraint. This also explains why it is necessary for service producers to locate in the proximity of users. This also explains why internationalization of services – or “trade in services” – rather takes the form of setting up affiliates in the customer country than the form of cross-border exchange. Another consequence is that service producers often have a local monopoly, which tends to slow down productivity growth. The following summary of services’ specificities draws on Illeris (2007) and Gallouj (2002) 18 • Third, service relations mean that the activities are often labour intensive, with limited possibilities for economies of scale, for standardization and for productivity increases. Their quality depends heavily on the professional and social qualifications of the personnel. Two services are never quite identical, which contributes to the problems of comparing productivity over time and space • Fourth, the more the service has the character of producer/consumer co-production, the more each service is unique. This means that both parties must engage in the relation in a state of uncertainty, and that some mutual trust is required. Incidentally, the surrounding circumstances also play a role interfering with the production of the service. The consequence is that the normal market model is not applicable – its basic, though sometimes forgotten, assumption of identical products is not fulfilled. However, and agreement between the parties on the use of certain methods, or governmental rules to protect customers in opaque markets, e.g. by laying down professional qualification rules for certain categories of service providers, can mitigate these risks. • Fifth, the relatively low capital intensity of most service activities means that it is comparatively easy to start new firms (low entry barriers). Consequently, most new firms created are in the service sectors, especially when countries change from planned economies – with low priorities given to services – to market economies. In most private service sectors, there are many very small firms. Large firms, for example, in accounting and management consultancy, tend to organize themselves in ways that leave many decisions to the operative staff. There are, however, sectors with predominantly large corporations and traditions of strict hierarchical organization, for example, banks, transport companies and retail chains. • Sixth, the service sector is of extreme diversity. All attempts to define and classify services recognized the complexity and diversity of the business activities that need to be included. The simplest classification of service activities identifies five different types of services 14: 1. Consumer services that provide services for final end-users; 2. Producer and business services that provide intermediate inputs into the activities of private and public sector organizations; 3. Public services provided directly by the state or indirectly by the private sector and not-for-profit organizations; 4. Not-for-profit organizations working beyond the confines of the state; and 5. Informal services or unpaid service work that is often predominantly undertaken by women, and which is a vital element of people’s daily lives. The above-mentioned characteristics, especially locational constraints, the participation of users in service production and the role of trust, imply that supply and demand of services cannot be forecast with certitude and that any public policy based on numerical targets is doomed to be highly inefficient if not futile. While there have been various approaches adopted by governments to services sector development, a common feature seems to be that the focus was on finding an appropriate policy environment for boosting productivity and competitiveness of services. Most of these strategies comprised policies addressing pressing cross-cutting issues rather than providing sector specific support measures, 14 The EU Services Directive divides market services them into three categories: services provided to consumers, services provided to other businesses, and services provided to both consumers and businesses. 19 although the latter have also been widely used to the extent that such measures had particular importance (for example, subsidies to, or direct provision of, infrastructural services) as part of a comprehensive service sector strategy. In the European Union services strategies have been adopted for instance in the framework of the Single Market program, and recently as part of the Lisbon Strategy that aimed at creating the World’s most advanced knowledge economy. Mention should also be made of the recent Services Directive whose objective is to release the untapped growth potential of internal EU services markets by removing legal and administrative barriers to intra-EU trade in the services sector. Of more direct relevance is for Viet Nam and the CSSSD are the various public policies (governmental and civil) pursued by East Asian countries to enhance the services sector in order to enable the goods sector to remain competitive thereby better contributing to economic growth and structural change. Instrumental to the success of these policies has been the contribution of knowledge-based industries, including producer services, financial services, information technology (IT) services (which are essential both for the development of a knowledge-based economy as well as enabling international telecommunications and connectivity) complemented by physical communications services such international airports, ports, and shipping. Promoting FDI in research and development (R&D) has been a particular area targeted by many Asian countries. The most successful countries achieved significant levels of R&D activity. Their success seems to lie in proactive formulation and implementation of combined government policies aimed at enhancing their “creative assets” 15. These policies include promoting imports of knowhow, people, capital and technology alongside domestic strategic investments in human resources, specialized infrastructure such as technology parks, strengthening financial institutions, or introducing targeted incentives for attracting knowledge-intensive investment. An important lesson is that policies to strengthen education, competition, FDI, and business innovation, as well as policies targeting the needs of specific industries and smaller firms, are effective, especially if they are well coordinated and adopt a long time horizon. 15 Daniels and Harrington (2007) 20 Box 2 Research and development activities in some East Asian developing countries Research and development expenditures by majority-owned foreign affiliates of US corporations in China, Hong Kong (China), Republic of Korea, Malaysia and Singapore, increased from USD 400 million in 1994 to more than USD 2,1 billion in 2002. In China alone the number of inwardly invested R&D establishments increased by 700 between 1995 and 2005, from a standing start. More than half of the 300 largest R&D spending firms in the world now have R&D facilities in countries like Singapore, India or China. In the Republic of Korea some 140 foreign affiliate research institutes, including one of Microsoft’s four overseas research centres and the R&D establishments of Intel, Motorola, Philips and Siemens, had all been opened by the end of 2004 As the synergy between national policies for creating sustainable knowledge-based clusters and inward investment in R&D deepens, it also enables firms based in the Asian host countries to invest in their own overseas R&D activities. According to UNCTAD (2005) in 2004 there were 60 R&D centres in other parts of the world which were owned by firms based in the Republic of Korea; Chinese companies operate at least 80 R&D units in other parts of the world and software firms based in India are now very actively engaged in creating a direct R&D presence in the US and elsewhere Source: Daniels and Harrington (2007) 1.3 Main Issue Ar eas That Need to Be Addr essed by a Compr ehensive Str ategy for Ser vice Sector Development The strong growth of services experienced during the last 2-3 decades by many countries resulted from a combination of various factors. One of the most important among them was the growth in competitive pressure. Another important factor was the opening up of service markets that were previously sheltered from domestic and/or international competition. This resulted from regulatory reforms of service markets (for example: transport, communication, finance and certain business services) and a reduction of barriers to trade and investment in services. The growing scope for competition and international cross-border trade was permitted by technological changes and the consequential increased tradability of services. All this has increased the incentives for firms to increase efficiency through greater use of advanced technologies, notably ICT, which has enabled innovation and productivity growth in many services, and has also forced firms to make greater efforts in introducing innovative products and processes throughout the value chain. In countries where this process has advanced furthest, such as Australia and the United States, the resulting boost to productivity has contributed to lower prices and growing demand for service products, and to strong employment creation in certain services sectors, notably business services. The experience of these countries shows that employment and productivity growth can go hand-in-hand. 16 The conclusion that one may draw from the above very concise summary for Viet Nam is that the Comprehensive Strategy for Service Sector Development should address at least the following key 16 OECD (2005) 21 areas: as a starting point, establishing a culture of competition with a level playing field for all actors and gradually increasing the competitive pressure by both internal and external liberalization; opening up domestic services markets for foreign competition is important since modern services techniques and technologies, and human skills can be acquired the most efficiently through FDI. Regulatory reforms are essential elements of the liberalization strategy. Liberalization does not mean absence of regulations, but necessitates in most of the cases de-regulation and re-regulation. In the following we discuss some of the most pressing issues to be addressed by the CSSSD, which pose immediate obstacles to the emergence of a vibrant and competitive services sector. These include removing structural impediments to the development of the services sector, improving the legal and regulatory frameworks for services firms, promoting competition in the domestic market, adopting an appropriate innovation policy, creating a enabling business environment, just to mention the most important ones. The following points discuss the most important issues. 1.3.1 Ownership Structure and the Emergence and Development of Competitive Markets for Producer Services Firms in the primary and secondary sectors have always used services provided by other firms, such as distribution, finance, and insurance, transport and telecommunications. With greater mobility of people and technological change, more services became increasingly tradable and this further increased the scope for specialization in production and trade which increased the needs for externalized intermediate (producer) services that they previously used to produce internally. Information technology services, personnel supply and training services, such as data processing, legal advice, advertising, design, research, cleaning, security, are among the services which are increasingly outsourced to external service providers. The private sector is the driving force of growth and development in many economies, and especially for services. A considerable share of the growth in business services is the result of externalization by established firms, which are shifting various functions and activities to external suppliers. By doing so these firms can reduce their costs and increase specialization thus their competitiveness. In fact, in highly competitive markets, the competitiveness of firms depends importantly on the availability of effective and efficient lower-cost, high-quality services inputs. This externalization/outsourcing process provides the basis for greater firm specialization and restructuring in addition to promoting new venture businesses and job creation. This process is also the source of many new services either as a result of unbundling or, which is more important, as a result of innovation. However, in Viet Nam, the superiority of the State sector, represented by the SOEs (as well as other enterprises with dominant State participation) has been emphasized for several decades until recently 17. The MPI & UNDP (2006) already noted that this developmental “externalization” process can become distorted due to in-house production by state-owned enterprises and/or government subsidies. Whilst the number of SOEs sharply decreased from 12.000 a decade ago to fewer than 3.200 in 2006, state ownership still dominates key industries such as telecommunications, ICT, steel production, and construction. 17 Nguyen and van Dijk (2008) 22 In fact, in Viet Nam, State ownership in many sectors is still so dominant that this prevents the emergence of competitive services markets. Large State-owned enterprises (SOEs), especially in monopoly or oligopoly situation, have the tendency to produce business support services in-house or purchase them from other state-owned enterprises as much as possible which make it impossible for specialized independent services providers to come into being, or if they exist, the latter can not acquire high quality specialized knowledge due to lack of competitive conditions. It seems that SOEs do not attach much importance to acquiring higher quality specialized business services from external sources, and even if they do consider this, they tend to internalize these services. Therefore SOEs do not generate significant external demand for knowledge intensive or specialized business services. This is not a problem as long as SOEs producing goods or services themselves are in competition with other firms. However, if one or more SOEs dominate a given market, specialized business services will not emerge or will help sustain an immature market for such expensive and low-quality services. The ICT sector is one among others where all major players are SOEs, which – together with tight controls implemented through Internet development policy – prevent the private service providers to genuinely participate in the sector. 18 1.3.2 Ownership Structure, Competition and the Development of the Service Sector In order for efficient services to develop, not only a healthy competition between all service providers should be present, but competition should grow to foster the growth and new entry of firms that are particularly innovative and successful in meeting consumer demand. 19 Unfortunately, while Viet Nam has recently adopted a competition law, not only the ownership structure discussed above distorts domestic services markets, but also by the use of SOEs by the government to interfere with markets. SOEs seem in practice to remain outside the reach of competition law and policy. In Viet Nam, as Nguyen and van Dijk (2008) observed, in general, there is not yet a level playing field for firms. The private and public (state) sectors face different government interventions, receive different endowments and treatments. SOEs are massively subsidized and receive all sorts of privileges to the detriment of the private sector. The most frequently noticed differentiated treatments relate to forgiveness of debts by the Government or SOCBs, forgiveness and replenishment of losses from the budget, preferential access to finance by SOCBs, and preferential access to lands. According to Nguyen and van Dijk (2008), “in general, government’s preferential treatment of SOEs remains a major obstacle to the development of private firms. Evidence is the slow pace of implementation of recent reform measures, including SOE reform.” Several studies have examined the factors distorting competition and restricting the private sector from reaching its full potential. For example, a survey on the major obstacles encountered by 18 Jonathan Boymal, Bill Martin, Dieu Lam: “The political economy of Internet innovation policy in Vietnam”, Technology in Society 29 (2007) 407-421 19 OECD (2005) 23 private firms and SOEs 20 showed that unfair competition is perceived as the most severe constraint by private firms and SOEs. A large share of the participating private firms (42%) felt that preferential treatment of SOEs is a “major” or “severe” constraint. Another cause of unfair competition is the high degree of informality in the business sector, giving an unfair competitive advantage to noncompliant firms. Both sources of unfair competition distort the allocation of resources. Economic theory recognizes only market imperfections, such as the existence of a natural monopoly or externalities, as motives for state ownership. The massive presence of SOEs in various Vietnamese economic sectors and the preferential treatment they receive from the Government, are even more surprising if one consider that the amount of capital needed to create one job in SOEs is nearly five times higher than that in FDI firms and more than eight times higher than that in domestic private firms. 21 As the two Finnish authors, Katariina Hakkala and Ari Kokko, observed, in order for the Vietnamese government to successfully the challenge to use the limited amount of resources available for public investment efficiently, it would be necessary to create a level playing field, where investors from different sectors operate under the same rules and regulations, and where the marginal return of investment in different sectors can be expected to be more or less the same. At present, this is not the case. SOEs still receive favourable treatment, which leads to an inefficient allocation of resources and an under-utilization of the economy’s growth potential. To release the growth potential of the private sector, it would therefore be necessary reduce or abolish the various privileges of SOEs. 1.3.3 Improving the Legal and Regulatory Framework for Services With the relatively advanced liberalization of many barriers to trade in goods - at the multilateral, bilateral and regional levels or on a unilateral basis - the cost of protecting services became of greater overall significance than that due to protectionism in the goods sector. Regulatory barriers to services impact even those domestic producers of goods who do not intend to participate in international trade. In fact, these services barriers impact them – even farmers – as if they were to pay an import duty in their own country. 20 Conducted by the Mekong Private Sector Development Facility (MPDF) in cooperation with researchers from the Australian National University and the Central Institute of Economic Management (CIEM). 21 Hakkala and Kokko (2007) 24 Box 3 The economy-wide and cross-sectoral effects of service sector protection Understanding the economy-wide and cross-sectoral effects of service sector protection is crucial for both governmental policy makers and businesses. Services barriers have a taxing effect on non-services sectors. Protection of services in telecommunication, banking, distribution, electricity, professional services, and air and maritime transport, affects the effective protection of agricultural and manufacturing sectors. This illustrates the potential economy-wide costs of services barriers to downstream-using industries as well as the benefits of service sector liberalization for the competitiveness of production of goods and services and the economy as a whole. These linkages are important from a practical point of view, given that services barriers reverse the protection of a number of agricultural and manufacturing sectors, i.e. they act as effective taxation, offsetting thereby the protection intended for agriculture and manufacturing. Effective rates of protection are measures of the protection provided to an industry by the entire structure of tariffs, taking into account the effects of tariffs on inputs as well as on outputs. The effective rate of protection gives the percentage increase in value added per unit in an economic activity that is made possible by the tariff structure relative to the situation in the absence of tariffs, giving insights into the supply-side impact of the protection structure. Given the important role of services as intermediate inputs in the production of most industries, an inefficient services sector can be costly for the economy as a whole. For example, even if a country were to engage in a reform programme that would reduce goods tariffs to zero, distortions would continue to persist should services barriers remain unchanged. As nations move to reduce tariffs and other barriers to trade substantially, effective rates of protection may decline, and in some cases become negative for manufacturing industries as they lose protection for their goods and continue to be confronted with input prices that are higher than they would be if services markets were contestable. Ignoring the services barriers in these calculations translates into distorted measures of the protection structure of a country. In other words, the calculation of effective rates of protection (ERP) needs to take into account services barriers in order to obtain an accurate illustration of the total protective structure in the economy. Such an approach will also highlight the costs imposed by inefficient services inputs to both services and non-services sectors. The recognition of the costs of services protection led many countries to engage in regulatory reforms of its services sectors and adopting a liberal trade and investment regime in key service sectors. The importance of regulatory reforms and efficient regulations is also linked in the case of Viet Nam to its recent accession to the World trade Organization. The GATS and also Viet Nam’s Accession Protocol impose certain disciplines as to domestic regulation. These pertain to Viet Nam’s various licensing regimes and services regulations. While Viet Nam has adopted many new laws during the last 2-3 years to implement its WTO obligations in the area of services, further legal and regulatory measures – and active implementation and enforcement - seem necessary to bridge the remaining gaps. 25 The MPI/UNDP (2006) study has provided a comprehensive overview of both the legal and regulatory frameworks for services in Viet Nam. Unfortunately, the observations made in 2006 remain largely pertinent: in Viet Nam, the policy environment for services and the legal texts are “complex and contradictory”, and laws and regulations – sometimes even within the same hierarchy - often conflict with each other. One of the issues that the CSSSD might wish to address in the area of lawmaking, is the apparent propensity in Viet Nam is to produce laws, decrees and lower-level acts, including circulars and letters, on one single subject matter. It has been observed that in complex matters there is an inflation of legal acts and the addressees frequently need additional written guidelines and interpretations. Public consultation in lawmaking or in the preparation of regulations is not yet an established practice. It would benefit all stakeholders if the relevant authorities could involve, through consultative processes, the business community and civil society in the preparation of economic laws and regulations, both at central and provincial levels. Regulatory independence and transparency are critical to regulatory effectiveness and, importantly, to creating an environment that fosters competition and attracts investment. They are also at the heart of the GATS Telecommunications Reference Paper to which Viet Nam is a signatory. Lack of transparent rule-making processes breeds uncertainty - causing current investors to pull out and potential investors to go elsewhere. Regulatory independence and transparency are also critical in enabling regulatory agencies to monitor the business environment in an effective manner to ensure that industry players comply with laws and regulations. Concerning authorization procedures, there is tendency for licences to proliferate. In addition, many authorization procedures still continue to involve discretionary power of the relevant licensing authorities, which reduces the predictability of the outcomes of the licensing procedures. Businesses have reported gaps in the interpretation in the investment law between provinces/cities, especially in the services areas and the conditional sectors. Local licensing authorities have been reported to ignore changes in legislation or interpret them in a restrictive manner that is detrimental for businesses. The CSSSD would provide an ideal opportunity to launch a systematic and comprehensive review of regulations of services sectors. Such a review would aim to reduce unnecessary regulatory barriers to market entry and operational efficiency of services providers, fostering competition and competitiveness, rationalizing regulations and strengthening the capacity of regulatory agencies. 1.3.4 Strengthening the Competitiveness of Private Firms The uneven playing field for private firms and SOEs creates a serious constraint on private sector development, without which Viet Nam’s competitive services sector will not develop. However, even if large-scale measures to level the playing field would be undertaken, Viet Nam’s young private sector, which is largely based on small and medium sized enterprises, would not able to compete in many of the skill intensive industries that still are dominated by SOEs and foreigninvested enterprises. Therefore, to fully utilize the growth potential of private sector and to achieve the country’s ambitious development objectives, it is necessary to strengthen the competitiveness of private enterprises. The focus in this section is on two domains that are important for improving competitiveness of the private sector and where state institutions can play an important role: education and human resources. 26 Viet Nam’s revealed comparative advantages at present are in labour- and resource-intensive industries, such as light manufacturing and food products. However, it is also important to create a foundation for Viet Nam’s future transition to a more modern, knowledge-based and globally competitive service economy. Developed country experience shows the importance of effective education and technology policies during early phases of industrial development. The Vietnamese government has traditionally accorded a high priority to education. The efforts during the past decade have given Viet Nam an international recognition for achieving the highest level of literacy and best access to basic education of all low-income countries Since access to primary education is largely assured, the current focus in national policies, as reflected in the SocioEconomic Strategy 2001-2010 and the Education Development Strategic Plan for 2001-2010, is to concentrate resources on improving the quality of education. In particular, the quality of higher education requires improvements to better meet the demands of a more sophisticated marketoriented economy. Higher education in Viet Nam is characterized by a multiplicity of small mono-disciplinary institutions with limited linkages between teaching and research. The structures and procedures of the system are inherited from the era of central planning, when higher education was segmented by economic sector, with many specialized institutions, each with little autonomy of its own, reporting to a particular line ministry. The higher education system suffered from low efficiency and quality and was unable to respond to the demands of the market economy. Low efficiency in higher education resulted from the small size of higher education institutions. There are currently over 200 higher education institutions nationwide. The issue of low quality stems from the perception that graduates are not well equipped for demands of the market economy. Typically, teaching at the universities emphasizes the importance of facts over the use of knowledge for problem solving, and aims to provide skills tailored to a particular segment of the labor market. The government’s recognition of the inadequacies of higher education has led to reforms in tertiary education policy including: 1) introduction of semi-public and non-public tertiary education; 2) tuition fees and charges for students coupled with scholarships; and 3) encouragement of entrepreneurial activity by institutions to raise additional non-government revenues. While these measures have gone some way in providing a better environment for higher learning, they have also caused some problems related to access to education: with increasing out-of-pocket costs, higher education is largely out of reach of students from the poorer segments of the population, irrespective of the personal qualities of the students. Hence, there is an ongoing debate regarding the balance between what can be left to the market and what should be provided by the public sector. In addition to improving the quality of higher education, there is also a need to develop vocational training. The private sector also faces major constraints in finding experienced and well-trained managers. While many can run small-scale businesses, they often lack the formal business knowledge and experience that is needed to manage a medium or large enterprise facing international competition. At the same time, Viet Nam is considered by many investors to have a flexible and easily trainable work force with a high work ethic. Given improvements in skills training, Viet Nam can potentially transform its current comparative advantages in semi-skilled and unskilled labour- intensive industries to sectors which require labour with higher skill levels. 27 Human resources are a prerequisite for science and technology development. Skilled labour is required for both adoption of technologies within firms and for science and technology development at universities and research institutes. At present, the links among firms, universities and research institutes are not particularly strong. A plausible explanation is that most firms are still in businesses or sectors where it is not necessary to be at the technology frontier and develop new technologies in collaboration with universities. The perception of many Vietnamese firms, both private and SOEs, is that price is the main tool for gaining competitive advantages. Advanced technology is not viewed as important, although a larger share of SOEs recognizes it as their competitors’ main strength. An obvious explanation is that many SOEs are active in sectors with a larger presence of foreign firms: the competitive advantages of foreign multinational enterprises are often related to technology and productivity. Apart from the clear need for improvements in education and domestic research capacity, it should be noted that foreign direct investment (FDI) may also play an important role for human resource and technology development. The entry and presence of foreign multinational corporations (MNCs) lead to imports of new technology, and it is often recognized as a potentially important source of technology and productivity gains for local firms as well. The technologies and productivity advantages of multinational firms may spill over to local enterprises through demonstration effects, labour mobility (as workers trained in foreign firms move to local firms), and various forms of linkages between local and foreign firms. The increase in competition that typically occurs when foreign multinationals enter a new market provides an additional push for local productivity gains, since it motivates incumbent firms to reduce slack and search for other ways to improve efficiency in order to maintain their market shares. 28 1.3.5 Improving Public Services As noted by OECD (2005), in general governments can make a direct contribution to better services sector performance by improving public services. Health, education (education was discussed in the previous section) and social services for example are often provided in a non-market environment, although with considerable variations across countries, as a result of which service providers face difficulties in responding adequately to evolving users’ needs. However, these services are growing in importance for human capital investment – a critical ingredient for the emergence of competitive service industries. The OECD suggested the exploration of a range of policy measures for a variety of public services, such as the opening up of markets to private providers, the introduction of user choice, linking public funding more closely to performance as well as user payments. However, in the case of Viet Nam, priorities may be different. Viet Nam has already undertaken some health care reforms associated with the introduction of user fees, the legalization of private medical practices, and the commercialization of the pharmaceutical industry. It is also is undertaking health financing reform with a view to achieve universal coverage of health insurance in coming years. Studies have shown that while the of user fees contribute to health resources and have helped to relieve the financial burden on the Government, user fees can also drive people deeper into poverty, widen the gap between the rich and the poor, and increase inequality in health outcomes. 22 Therefore the issue now for Viet Nam is to maintain an effective social protection and targeting system to protect the poor, to increase equity and improve the quality of healthcare services, rather than to further market-oriented reforms. 1.3.6 Adopting a Permanent Strategy for Service Sector Development While the CSSSD is foreseen to provide an action plan up to the year 2020, it is recommended that the CSSSD kick-start a policy framework to deal with services development issues whose life would span beyond the CSSSD. Indeed, relative to past industrial developments, the speed of contemporary economic and technological changes impacting services has dramatically increased. Therefore, a prospective services strategy should adjust its objectives and monitor their realization on a continuous basis. In addition, it is recommended that services-related policies should be designed and implemented in an integrated fashion with the rest of the economic sectors. This is due to the high degree of interdependence of many services such as business services, financial activities, transport and communications, with manufacturing industries and farming, Benefits arising from this connection in terms of aggregate growth should be sought. Actually, the ideal would be to adopt “productivity policies” understood as a comprehensive policy which constantly addresses innovation, employment, competitiveness and regulations, both in the domestic and international contexts. Last but not least, Viet Nam might consider the establishment of a Government-sponsored institute, independent from the Government, that is capable to undertake high-quality research and analysis on a wide range of economic, social and environmental issues affecting productivity and efficiency of the economy, including on sectors and products that are vital for Viet Nam’s future as a 22 H.T. Dao, H. Waters, Q.V. Le: “User fees and health service utilization in Vietnam: How to protect the poor?”, Public Health (2008) 122, 1068-1078, Elsevier Ltd. 29 knowledge based economy. A model for the establishment of such an independent analytical and advisory body may be the Australian Productivity Commission. 30 CHAPTER 2: THE RATIONALE AND FOUNDATIONS FOR A VIETNAMESE SERVICES SECTOR STRATEGY - CURRENT STATE AND DEVELOPMENT ISSUES OF THE SERVICE SECTOR IN VIET NAM 2.1 The Impor tance of the Ser vice Sector in the Vietnamese Economy Services are increasingly important facilitators and sources of economic growth In all modern economies, services are the facilitators of economic activities and contributors to quality of life for all citizens. For example, infrastructure services are supportive to all types of enterprises. Education, health, and recreational services influence the quality of labor and population in general. Business and professional services are crucial to increase of enterprise competitiveness. Government services affect the business environment in which enterprises operate (UNDP, 2006: 1). Under the command economic system, service industries in Viet Nam, like in most former socialist countries, did not enjoy favourable conditions to develop because of the view – held by policy makers – that these are not productive sectors of the economy. In 1985, services accounted for only 32.5 percent of the GDP whereas the share of agricultural, aquacultural and forestry sector was 40.2 percent. With the launching of the Doi Moi, the service industries however have been quickly transformed to become important facilitators of economic growth. 31 Figure 1: Growth Rate of the Service Sector, 1986-first half 2009 (%) 12 10.19 10 9.56 8.77 8.8 8.64 7.86 8 9.83 7.38 8.48 8.68 8.29 7.58 7.26 7.14 7.18 6.54 6.45 6.1 6 5.5 5.32 5.08 4.6 4 2.3 2.25 2 9 f2 00 20 08 Fi rs tH al fo 20 07 20 06 20 05 20 04 20 03 20 02 20 01 20 00 19 99 19 98 19 97 19 96 19 95 19 94 19 93 19 92 19 91 19 90 19 89 19 88 19 87 19 86 0 Sources: GSO (2000). Socio-economic Statistics of Viet Nam 1975-2000. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2004). Viet Nam 20 Years of Reforms and Development (1986-2005). Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2008). Statistical Yearbook 2007. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2008 and 2009). Annual Report 2008, Quarterly Report I/2009, and Half Year Report I/ 2009 The growth of the service sector has jumped from merely 2.3 percent in 1986 to 10.19 percent in 1990 (see Table 1) during the first phase of unbundling and re-structure of the economy to follow market orientation. In the 1986-1990 period service sector grew at 5.77 percent annually, which was higher than the growth rates of the manufacturing and agriculture. Service sector grew at 6.92 percent on average in the 1986-2008 period whereas the entire economy grew at 6.87 percent. For specific phases, service growth was higher than the growth of the economy during the 1991-1995, peaking at 9.83 percent in 1995 when the economy was said of escaping from a decade prolonged socio-economic crisis. Then it fell below the growth of the economy from 1996 to 2004, as priority, hence resources, was given to industrialization and modernization. However, service sector has recovered, growing higher than the entire economy since 2005 and higher than the manufacturing sector in 2008. 32 Table 1 Average Growth Rates of Three Sectors and the Economy, quinquennia in 1986-2008 By sectors Agriculture, Industry and Forestry and Services Construction Aquaculture Quinquennia Economy 1986- 2008 6.87 3.75 9.39 6.92 1986- 1990 4.43 2.67 4.71 5.77 1991- 1995 8.18 4.03 12.00 8.57 1996- 2000 6.95 4.42 10.60 5.69 2001- 2005 7.51 3.82 10.18 6.97 2006- 2008 7.63 3.72 7.48 8.05 Sources: GSO (2000): Socio-economic Statistics of Viet Nam 1975-2000. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2004). Viet Nam 20 Years of Reforms and Development (1986-2005). Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2008). Statistical Yearbook 2007. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2008 and 2009). Annual Report 2008, Quarterly Report I/2009, and Half Year Report I/ 2009. Service growth was the largest contributor to the growth of the economy during the 1986-2005 period even though it was lower than that of the manufacturing and construction sector 23 because the service sector account for a larger share in the GDP in constant prices. Service sub-sectors that contribute largest parts to the growth of the entire service sector are trade and repair of motor vehicles, transport, storage and communication, hotel and restaurants, business services, and education and training. Table 2: Contribution of service sector to GDP growth (percentage points) 1997 199 8 1999 200 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 GDP Growth of the 8.15 5.76 4.77 6.79 6.89 7.08 7.34 7.79 8.44 8.23 8.48 Economy Contribution of Agriculture, Aquaculture, 1.97 1.36 1.13 1.58 1.55 1.54 1.55 1.59 1.65 1.54 1.51 and Forestry Contribution of Manufacturing and 2.66 1.93 1.64 2.40 2.52 2.65 2.83 3.07 3.39 3.37 3.54 construction Contribution of Services 3.52 2.47 2.00 2.80 2.83 2.89 2.97 3.14 3.40 3.32 3.42 Sources: Author calculated from: GSO (2000). Socio-economic Statistics of Viet Nam 1975-2000. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2004). Viet Nam 20 Years of Reforms and Development (1986-2005). Hanoi: 23 Except the year 1995. 33 Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2008). Statistical Yearbook 2007. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; Table 3: Contribution of service sector to GDP growth (% of growth rate) 1987-1990 1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2007 Agriculture, Aquaculture, and Forestry 32.62 28.70 23.99 21.05 18.30 Manufacturing and construction 27.75 33.43 38.39 41.37 26.73 Contribution of Services 40.65 43.55 42.58 40.55 40.33 Sources: Author calculated from: GSO (2000). Socio-economic Statistics of Viet Nam 1975-2000. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2004). Viet Nam 20 Years of Reforms and Development (1986-2005). Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2008). Statistical Yearbook 2007. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; Services development is enabling industrialization and modernization A common misconception is that, because of scarce resources, developing or transition economies should accord priority to the development of industries rather than services. This misconception is typically based on the assumption that “services” are primarily consumer or final demand services and so are optional purchases. In fact, at least half of the services produced in an economy are “intermediate” services, or services sold to other enterprises. Competitive manufacturing sectors need a wide range of high quality service inputs – e.g., transportation, storage, telecommunications, engineering, design, market research, packaging, and so forth. Competitive service inputs are particularly important if one wants to increase the value-added in industrial and agricultural production and the competitiveness of export-oriented industries. Moreover, service inputs such as education and training are crucial in the provision of high quality human resources needed for the industrialization and modernization process (UNDP, 2006). Service sector growth is also associated with the development of infrastructures needed by industrialization and modernization. These infrastructures, for example, include new and upgraded highways, railway, seaports and airports serving as the artery for the transportation activities; expansive telecommunication and internet network; increased number of domestic and foreign banks and two stock exchanges channeling capitals into industrial production; and around 370 public and non-public higher educational institutions which produce almost a quarter of million graduated students for the labour market each year. Although these outputs are still modest, this is a marked success for a relatively poor country with limited resources and large population. Service development has been crucial factor for Viet Nam to attract new foreign investments not only into industries but also into the services to provide capital and technology to the industrialization and modernization processes. Registered foreign investments into the whole economy increased from US$ 6.8 billions in 2005 to US$ 12 billions in 2006, US$ 21.3 billions in 2007, US$ 71 billions in 2008, and US$ 8.78 billions in the first half of 2009. By 2008, total registered FDI into the service sector reached 62 billion USD, or 39 percent of total registered FDI in the economy. In terms of number of licensed projects, service FDI accounts for 45.4 percent of the total FDI. Current FDI flows into hotel and restaurant sectors and real estate and business activities because of their booms, followed by the distribution and transport sectors. However, in the long run, FDI flows into other services such as financial intermediation, health and education are also expected to rise because these sectors are opened up for competitions. 34 Table 4: FDI in the Service Sector 1988-2007 Million USD Number of Registered Capital (Million USD) projects Of which: Charter capital Of which Total Share Total Total Foreign Vietnamese side side TOTAL 9810 100.00 99596.2 43129 36413.7 6715.3 Trade, Repair of motor 108 1.10 641.9 292.2 192.9 99.3 vehicle Hotels and restaurants 291 2.97 7620.6 3144.9 2474 670.9 Transport, storage and 272 2.77 5072.3 3788.4 2918.7 869.7 communication Financial intermediation 65 0.66 862.7 791.1 730.6 60.5 Real estate, renting, 1341 13.67 14191.8 5252.3 4391.9 860.4 business activities Education and training 101 1.03 146.8 72.7 60.3 12.4 Health and social work 54 Culture and sport 112 Community, social and 66 personal services 0.55 1.14 591.4 1683.5 224.8 769.4 188.5 603.1 36.3 166.3 0.67 38.7 27.2 23.1 4.1 Source: GSO, and MPI database 35 Table 5: FDI in service sector by July 2009 (Effective projects) Number of projects 299 247 526 116 Total registered capitals Chattered capital Sector (USD) (USD) Real estates 34,318,699,373 9,111,219,289 Hotel and Restaurants 10,772,027,712 2,325,997,243 Communication 4,644,523,917 2,891,673,564 Arts and Entertainment 3,741,202,178 1,103,142,799 Transportation and storage 269 2,127,690,039 794,886,012 Financial intermediation 71 1,181,625,080 1,084,338,000 Trade and repair service 225 1,037,210,781 475,392,995 Health and social works 62 951,775,273 234,151,705 Others 56 603,612,000 129,737,644 Professional services and science and technology 688 550,125,923 246,785,786 Education and training 121 243,503,203 97,149,497 Public administration 86 177,212,926 80,592,516 Water supply and garbage collection 14 48,323,000 31,523,000 Total 2,780 60,397,531,405 18,606,590,050 Source: Department of Foreign Investment, MPI. Database. July 24th 2009. Service sector development creates jobs, reduces poverty, and enables social development Services are the major source of employment. Since many service enterprises can be started with very little capital, service industries provide opportunities for persons with minimal resources to become self-employed and economically productive. In Viet Nam, the number of employees in the service sector has increased steadily since 1985. As of 2008, the number of service workers was already 2.8 times higher than that of 1985, growing at an annual rate of 4.56 percent. In the same period, total employment of the economy only increased 1.73 times, rising at a pace of 2.41 percent each year. Financial intermediation, transport, storage and communication are those services that generate the largest portion of employment in service sector. Table 6: Employment in the service sector 1986-2008 Year Number of employees Changes (%) (thousands) Share of service workers in total workers of the economy (%) 1986 4,479.4 -- 15.0 1990 5,275.6 17.77 15.7 1995 6,537.9 23.93 17.4 2000 8,199.8 25.42 21.8 36 Table 6: Employment in the service sector 1986-2008 Year Number of employees Changes (%) (thousands) Share of service workers in total workers of the economy (%) 2005 10,504.6 24.7 2006 11,008.4 28.11 4.80 2007 11,535.8 4.79 26.1 2008 12,026.9 4.26 26.7 25.4 Sources: GSO (2000). Socio-economic Statistics of Viet Nam 1975-2000. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2004). Viet Nam 20 Years of Reforms and Development (19862005). Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2008). Statistical Yearbook 2007. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2008 and 2009). Annual Report 2008, Quarterly Report I/2009, and Half Year Report I/ 2009. Note: Figures in the 2000-2007 period are from Statistical Yearbook 2007. Figures prior to 2000 are re-calculated based on the adjustment of 2000 data comparing with 1999 data to ensure their comparability with figures in the 2000-2008 period because GSO has not adjusted data before 2000. Besides jobs, service development is vital to poverty alleviation and social development. Latest Human Development Report of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) in 2005 ranked Viet Nam Human Development Index 105 within 177 countries with data with a score of 0.733 (UNDP, 2007). Within a ten-year period, from 1993 to 2004, the number of population who lived below the national poverty line in Viet Nam was brought down from 40.4 millions to 19.7 millions, or 60 percent of the number of poor households (MDGs Report, 2005: 14). In 2008, the proportion of poor household declined to about 13.1 percent comparing with 20.2 percent in 2005 (MPI, 2009: 69). These remarkable achievements are contributed in the large part by service development. Quality of basic public services such as education, health, electricity and clean water are critical for improving the life of the poor. The development of health and education services is regarded as not only as engines for sustained growth but also as the opportunities for the poor to escape from their porverty trap. The pre-school enrolment rate of children under five years old was 92.5 percent in 2008 and the primary net enrolment rate has been increasing steadily since 2005, reaching 96 percent in 2008 (MPI, 2009: 55). National level malnutrition rate in children under five years old decreased from 25.2 percent in 2005 to about 21.0 percent in 2008. Under-five mortality rate decreased from 28%o in 2005 to 25%o in 2008 whereas under-one-year-old child mortality decreased from 18%o in 2005 to 15.5%o in 2008 (MPI, 2009: 61). Another potential benefit from services sector growth is to spread economic development benefits throughout the economy, not only in all cities but also to the rural and remote areas. For example, service enterprises with decent investments can be developed in even the smallest of communities to generate incomes and jobs which are important for the poor, especially the poor women. The dispersion of micro service companies associated with employment opportunities in rural communities help to stem urban migration and preserve local small communities (UNDP, 2006). 37 2.2 Cur r ent level of development of the ser vices sector In 2008, the service sector accounted for 38.1 percent of the GDP and 26.7 percent of the employment. Since the beginning of the reforms, the share of services in the GDP has gone through different stages of change: i) it declined in the 1986-1988 period when Viet Nam was still in the social-economic crisis and when agricultural development was given priority to ensure food security; ii) it increased during 1988-1990 as the market economy policy became more effective, and threat of food insecurity was relieved; iii) it fell down sharply in 1991 when the entire economy experienced a shock because the traditional markets in the former socialist blocs collapsed; and iv) it increased during 1991-1995 as the economy gradually escaped from the economic crisis, stepped up its transition to the market economy and conducted industrialization and modernization which created a higher demand for services. Although since 1996 the service sector has been expanding considerably, its share in the GDP has declined because manufacturing and mining sectors grew rapidly, and because skewed resources were given to industrialization and modernization priority at the expense of service development. Indeed, the annual growth target of 12-13 percent for service sector set in the 1996-2000 Five Year Plan was not achieved. Neither was the target to increase the share of service sector in GDP to 4546 percent by 2000. Service share in the GDP declined during 1996-2004 and it was not until 2005 has the growth rate of the service sector been higher than the average growth of economy. Figure 2: Share of service sector in the GDP of the economy (%) 50 44.1 45 38.6 40 35 38.7 38 38.1 38.1 38.1 38.5 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 Prel 2009 33 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1986 1990 1995 Sources: GSO (2000). Socio-economic Statistics of Viet Nam 1975-2000. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2004). Viet Nam 20 Years of Reforms and Development (1986-2005). Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2008). Statistical Yearbook 2007. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2008 and 2009). Annual Report 2008, Quarterly Report I/2009, and Half Year Report I/2009 38 In comparison of service share in the GDP, Viet Nam ranks 8th in 10 Southeast Asian economies in 2006, below Singapore (65.17%), East Timor (55.1%), the Philippines (54.19%), Thailand (44.41%), Cambodia (43.68%), Malaysia (41.35%) and Indonesia (40.06%) but above Brunei (25.91%) and Laos (25.53%). Viet Nam ranks 33rd in 39 countries and territories in Asia outside Southeast Asian region, below India (54.88%) and China (39.91%) and such transitional economies as Taijikistan (47.77%), Kyrgyzstan (46.91%) and Uzbekistan (46.46%), but higher than others such as Armenia (36.75%), Mongolia (35.86%), and Azerbaijan (22.47%). Viet Nam also ranks 141st in 165 economies in the world. Figure 3: Share of service sector in GDP of Viet Nam and some countries in 2007 (%) 90 80 65.8 70 60 40 38.1 39.4 40.4 42 76.5 56.8 52.4 50 68.4 71.5 68.8 44.7 30 20 10 US A (2 7) EU ng ap or e Si Ja pa n l Br az i a Ru ss i In di a In do ne sia Ch in a PR M al ay sia Th ai la nd Vi et na m 0 Sources: GSO (2008). Statistical Yearbook 2007. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; In line with the share in the GDP of the service sector, share of service employment in total employment is also modest. Latest UNESCAP figures indicate that Viet Nam ranks below a number of transitional economies, and most countries in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia in terms of labor share of services. Table 7: Share of service employment in total employment of selected economies in Asia and the Pacific (%) Agriculture Industry Services Regions and Countries East and Northeast Asia China Hong Kong, China Japan Macao, China Mongolia Republic of Korea Southeast Asia Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Latest 32.3 56.6 0.3 4.5 0.1 39.9 7.9 44.5 1.4 70.3 Year (07) (02) (05) (05) (05) (05) (05) (07) (01) (01) 39 Latest 21.4 22.7 15.2 28.3 25.2 16.8 26.9 19.0 21.4 10.5 Year (07) (02) (05) (05) (05) (05) (05) (07) (01) (01) Latest 46.3 20.7 84.5 67.2 74.7 43.3 65.2 36.5 77.2 19.1 Year (07) (02) (05) (05) (05) (05) (05) (07) (01) (01) Indonesia 44.0 (05) Malaysia 14.8 (04) Philippines 37.0 (05) Singapore 0.3 (04) Thailand 42.6 (05) Viet Nam 57.9 (04) North and Central Asia 16.5 (07) Armenia 46.9 (04) Azerbaijan 39.3 (05) Georgia 54.4 (05) Kazakhstan 33.5 (04) Kyrgyzstan 48.0 (05) Russian Federation 10.2 (05) Asia and the Pacific 37.5 (07) Sources: UN-ESCAP. 2009. Statistical Yearbook “Employment by sectors.” April 21st 2009. 18.0 (05) 38.0 (05) 30.1 (04) 55.1 (04) 14.9 (05) 48.1 (05) 23.3 (04) 76.4 (04) 20.3 (05) 37.1 (05) 17.4 (04) 24.7 (04) 26.2 (07) 57.2 (07) 16.0 (04) 37.1 (04) 12.1 (05) 48.6 (05) 9.3 (05) 36.2 (05) 17.4 (04) 49.1 (04) 12.5 (05) 39.5 (05) 29.8 (05) 60.0 (05) 21.7 (07) 40.9 (07) for Asia and the Pacific 2008. Table 16.2 However, what is more important is the absence of a modern and efficient service economy in Viet Nam, guided by some leading service sectors, which have sustained rapid growth, access to high technology, and potential to generate high export values, and attract large proportion of foreign investment. Although the service sectors such as business services, banking and securities, tourism, and distribution services have revealed this prospective, and the government has not come out with concrete long-term strategies to ensure that priority is given to their development. The development of crucial “soft” and “hard” infrastructure service sectors such as education, health, telecommunication and transports has also been talked for years but it is facing a constraint of financial resources and those service sectors have many internal weaknesses as demonstrated below which may not be resolved quickly. Distribution services The expansion of distribution services offers a dynamic evidence for a rapid growth in wealth of the Vietnamese society. Within ten years (1996-2006), numerous super markets, family marts, and commercial centers have appeared in the whole country. The supermarkets and commercial centers increased from 12 in 6 provinces and cities of Viet Nam as of the end 1996 to almost 200 in 25 out of 64 provinces and cities plus 20 other supermarkets and 35 commercial centers under construction by 2006. Major world retail and wholesale distributors such as Metro Cash & Carry (Germany), Big C (France), Parkson (Lion Group, Singapore), Zen Plaza (Japan) and Diamond Plaza (South Korea) have also come to establish their presence in Viet Nam recently. E-commerce is developing very fast despite a lack of mechanism to ensure the security of this kind of transaction. The distribution processes are diversified, shortened, and modernized thanks to the application of new technology and management skills by the distributors. Major distributors have developed longterm strategies to ensure reliable supplies of goods and services. From 1996 to 2006, the supermarket systems successfully brought down the share of imported goods in their inventory from almost 100 percent to just around 30 percent. In some superstores, made-in-Viet Nam products already accounted for almost 85 percent of sale. In addition, each supermarket system has some 2000-3000 domestic suppliers and becomes important advertising channels for the Vietnamese products. Yet, the growing advanced distribution channels increasingly compete with the traditional retail market systems in the delivery of goods and services. With the advantage of capital, scale of 40 activities, modern system of logistics, and good business strategy, foreign distributors are gradually taking over the urban and upper-income level market of Viet Nam. At the same time, the supermarkets and commercial centers have a high set of requirements for quality which is hardly met by the small domestic suppliers. However, it is expected that in the next ten years, traditional retail distributors still play a big role because of the habits of the customers, especially those in the countryside, and their mobility and closeness to the buyers. Banking services With total banking assets making up nearly 140% of GDP, banks still remain the major source of domestic financing for growth. Currently, Viet Nam's banking sector comprises 5 SOCBs, 36 JSBs, 45 foreign bank branches, 55 foreign bank representative offices, and 5 joint venture banks. In 2008, 5 100% foreign-owned bank subsidiaries have been licensed but they have not started their official operation. Non-bank credit institutions include 2 social policy banks, 17 finance companies, 13 financial leasing companies, the Central's Credit Fund and 1019 local People's Credit Funds. Vietnamese banks are still of small size compared with regional peers. The averaged equity capital of SOCBs is around $US 260 million in 2008. The penetration ratio of the banking sector is still low. In 2007, there were 8.2 million bank accounts serving the total population of around 84 million, equivalent to a penetration rate of 10%. Five million of such accounts are held by individuals. It is estimated that less than 10% of the population use bank services regularly. Over the past decade, Vietnamese banking services have gone through a rapid modernization. There was an introduction of online banking services and electronic payment systems such as Paynet, VinaPay, VASC Payment, and VietPay even though their application is still limited. The new-born ATM market also expands rapidly. There are currently 29 banks which issue credit cards, with a total number of ATM to 7 millions. Nonetheless, besides some popular modern services mentioned, current banking services are very much traditional and monotonous. Low technology, poor infrastructure (such as lack of ATM machines) and lack of skilled labor are major constraints to the introduction of complicated services and further expansion of the modern banking. Securities services Besides the traditional banking sector, stock and bond markets have emerged in recent years yet remain small. Stock market capitalization increased from 2% of GDP in 2003 to 15% as at the end of 2008 after surging to 43% in 2007 due to a market bubble. Bond market is of similar size, with total outstanding bonds accounted for 15% of GDP in 2008. There are two securities markets with two exchange centers namely HCM City securities exchange center (SEC) which has operated since 2000 and Hanoi SEC, which has been launched in 2005. As of the end 2008, there are 531,428 trading accounts and 102 securities companies operating in the two exchanges; there are 338 companies, including many giant corporations such as Hoang Anh Gia Lai Group, PetroViet Nam Finance Corporation, Vinaconex, FPT etc which have their share listed; total trading value of the two exchanges in 2008 was VND 180,978 billion with an average daily trading value of VND 737.94 billion. In terms of size and popularity, securities sector in Viet Nam are immature. However, Vietnamese stock exchanges are very volatile, boomed and burst after the waves of speculations, making securities services very unstable and risky business. Many of the movements in the stock exchanges are also linked with the real estate bubble. Lack of stringent regulations and supervision mechanism is encouraging fraud and speculation on the stock markets. Insurance services 41 There are currently 27 non-life insurers, 11 life insurers, 8 insurance brokers and 1 reinsurer in the market. As part of the liberalization process, there are now 13 wholly foreign-owned insurers, the state insurers Bao Viet, Bao Minh, PetroViet Nam Insurace and Vinare have been partly equitised and listed in the stock market and the compulsory cession to VinaRe was eliminated. In 2008, the total direct premium of Vietnamese insurance industry reached VND 27.000 billion, equivalent to 2,2% of GDP. Life insurance gained VND 10.339 billion; non – life insurance reached VND 10.879 billion; and reinsurance value (VinaRe) was recorded at VND 1.050 billion. In 2007 the Vietnamese non-life market ranks 66th in the world with a minor market share of just 0.04% and it was the 11th-largest non-life market in Asia. But the largest premium share belongs to the life insurance which attracts participation of both domestic and foreign major companies such as Prudential, Bao Viet, Manulife, Prevoir, ACE Life, Great Eastern Life and Cathay Life. In terms of financial capacity, total assets of life insurance companies was VND 47,813 billion and total investment of life insurance companies was VND 39,253 billion in 2008. Despite its rapid growth in number of companies and products, Vietnamese insurance service is said of lacking professionalism. Technology, business efficiency, and customer care service have not been quickly improved. Current competition strategy in the market is based on reduction of technical premium rather than classification of policy holders, risk types and customer care. Compensation procedures are time consuming and cumbersome. In the post-WTO accession, the inherent worrisome issue for Vietnamese insurance companies is the outreach, hence competition, of any oversea insurance service providers without their establishment in the domestic market. Business services Business and professional services concentrate in major cities like Ho Chi Minh City and Ha Noi, which accounted for 90% market shares of business development services (e.g. accounting and auditing services, legal services, management services, marketing and advertising, technical consulting services). Despite its rapid growth over the past year and big potential of development in the future, business and professional services in Viet Nam are still immature and not many enterprises have been adapted to their uses. Legal services, arbitration and conciliation services have evolved gradually in recent years, in terms of both service diversification and quality. This field of business has had participation of numerous foreign lawyer organizations and law firms such as Baker & McKenzie, Vovan & Associés, Russin & Vecchi, Lucy Wayne & Associates, and Clifford Chance. The scopes of operation for these organizations have been expanded. For example they can create partnerships with Viet Nam’s lawyers organizations to provide consultancy services on Vietnamese laws. There are currently more than 160 enterprises providing financial and accounting, auditing consultancy services, employing more than 5,000 staffs. There have been four 100% foreign invested service providers operating in Viet Nam, which are KPMG, PwC, Grant Thornton, Ernst&Young and nearly 10 Viet Nam’s accounting and auditing enterprises recognized by major international accounting and auditing companies as their members like A&C, U&I, UHY, ACPA, ACA Group, AC&C, Vietauditor, and DTL. Architectural, engineering and integrated engineering services have been growing fast thanks to a boom in real estate sector. Real estate is also the area which attracts most foreign investment with a share of 36.8 percent of the total in 2008. There are more than 600 architectural, engineering and integrated engineering services providers, of which class I and class II enterprises (or equivalent) account for nearly 50%, the remaining of them are class III or class IV enterprises at local level. Among these providers, state owned enterprises account for about 75%, foreign invested enterprises 42 account for 3% and private ones account for 22%. So far, the activities of those companies mostly focus on designing services (accounting to nearly 50-60% of their revenues) and surveillance (1020%). The development of computer and related services involves with a growth of the number of private, small and medium sized enterprises. The types of services provided are increasingly diversified to include consultancy services, software development and implementation services, data processing services, database services, maintenance and repair services. Taking outsourced activities from overseas are contributing to main business of computer service providers in Viet Nam. The growth rate of Viet Nam’s advertising sector has been quite high, at about 20-30% per year, making the advertising market a focus of foreign advertising enterprises while the number of domestic advertising enterprises is also rising. There are currently more than 7,000 enterprises in the advertising sector, with total revenue of USD 500 millions in 2008. However, among these, only less than 100 are capable of operating as real advertising companies, and only a few can provide advertising strategies for their customers. Transport services Transport services of Viet Nam consists of all modes of transport, including road transport, railways transport, maritime transport, air transport and inland waterways transport. The volume of goods to be transported increased from 140.7 million tons in 1995 to about 570 million tons in 2007, and the numbers of passenger increased from 564.4 million in 1995 to 1,628.9 million in 2007. There are about 1,050 registered companies involved in the road transportation at present. In 2006, the railway system carried approximately 11.6 million passengers and 11.0 million ton freights but this is only a marginal share in the overall transportation demand. As of 2007, Vietnamese maritime fleet comprises a total of 1,199 ships - with a combined capacity of 2,937,327 GT and 4,384,880 DWT. However, only a handful of ships are designed to carry cargo and passengers. Most of them are meant for general cargo, with a sizeable number of special-purpose dedicated vessels like oil tankers and liquid bulk carriers, and container vessels are still not many. Although Viet Nam does not have big airports and airlines, air travel has experienced high growth rates recently. International passengers totaled 8.5 million in 2007; with the average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 15.5% between 2003 and 2007. Over the past five years, the AAGR of international passenger volume at the Noi Bai Airport was almost 26.5%. Air traffic volumes in other airports also recorded phenomenal growth - averaging nearly 15%. Telecommunication services The growth of telecommunication services is rapid. The current market for telephone includes 82.25 million subscribers on whole network, of which 85.5 percent are mobile subscribers, and 14.5 percent for fixed-line telephone. The current market for internet comprises 20.67 million internet users, in which total number of broadband subscribers reached 2 million. The penetration rate is 97.5 percent for the telephone service and 24.20 for internet service. Viettel Corporation, which is owned by the Vietnamese Military, is leading the mobile market with a market share of around 34.1%. The next largest mobile operators are MobiFone and VinaPhone, which had market shares of approximately 28.4% and 25.6% respectively. Present focus is on significant changes in the mobile sector, which have experienced significant growth rate. Competition and growth in the mobile sector has been associated with the recent wave of tariff cuts, which have been introduced by the various operators. However, the sector is also facing major weaknesses involving overcapacitated infrastructures, the existence of unregistered and inactive prepaid users, and poor customer services. 43 Education services In terms of infrastructures, as of 2007, there are 345 universities and colleges, 273 professional secondary and vocational training schools, 11,696 kindergartens and 27898 schools at the primary and secondary levels. The number of schools and classes has increased rapidly recently except a fall in the number of the primary-secondary schools and lower-upper secondary schools and in the number of classes at the primary and lower secondary levels. There is a puzzling trend that despite pronounced achievement in educational universalization at the lower level, the number of primary and lower secondary pupils is declining whereas population continues to grow. In 2007, there are totally 6860.3 thousand pupils at the primary level and 5803.3 thousand pupils at the lower secondary level. The pupils per teacher (P/T) ratio has constantly declined in the kindergarten, primary and secondary levels even though it increases at the higher levels (i.e. professional secondary and vocational training, university and college), reaching 31.46 for university and college level and 40.33 for professional secondary and vocational training level in 2007. In comparison, the proportion of pupils reaching grade 5 in 2006 is above 90 percent, which is at the medium level in the Asia-pacific region, and higher than in some Southeast Asian countries, such as Indonesia, and the Philippines. By 2008, 47 out of 64 provinces and cities have completed lower secondary education universal. The proportion of pupils finishing lower secondary level (grade 9) is 79 percent. The proportion of pupils who passed the upper secondary accomplishment exams fell from 93.7 percent in 2005-2006 to 80.42 in 2006-2007 but reached 83.8 percent in 2008-2009. There is a concern over various aspects of the development of educational services in Viet Nam as reflected in the country’s falling UNESCO Education Development Index (EDI) – covering universalization of primary education, adult literacy rate, gender equality in education and quality of education. The latest EDI released in 2008 ranks Viet Nam for the last available 5 year period 79th out of 129 countries, a regression of 9 places from the 2007 EDI. Other concerns over the educational services are about the adjustment of educational fees, reforms of curriculum and exam system, encouragement of research at the university level, and improvement of quality of students and pupils to match international standards. Health services The healthcare system of Viet Nam is exalted as better than those of many countries with the same income per capita. Poliomyelitis and tetanus among infants were eliminated in 2000 and leprosy in 2005. The mortality rate of children under 5 years old decreases from 58‰ in 1990 to 25.0‰ in 2008 whilst children under 1 year old from 44.4‰ to 15.5‰. The average life expectancy in Viet Nam was 71.8 years in 2008, longer than in many countries with the same income per capita. In 2007, Viet Nam had 13,438 healthcare service institutions with 210,800 beds. The number of doctors was 6.3 per one thousand people in 2008. According to WHO data, during 2000-2008, Viet Nam had 27 hospital beds per 10,000 inhabitants on average. This ratio is significantly higher that the one Southeast Asian region (9), and the lower middle income countries (16) but still lower than the ratio of the upper middle income countries (42). The WHO estimates that countries with fewer than 23 health-care professionals (counting only physicians, nurses and midwives) per 10,000 population will be unlikely to achieve adequate coverage rates for the key primary health-care interventions prioritized by the MDGs. In this respect, Viet Nam has only 14 healthcare professionals per 10,000 inhabitants. Viet Nam’s per capital total expenditure on health in PPP was $US 151 in 2006 but that of lower middle income 44 countries and upper middle income countries were $US 181 and 707 respectively. In addition, Viet Nam’s share of general government expenditure on health in total government expenditure is considerably lower than those in the lower and upper middle countries (6.4 percent comparing with 8.2 percent and 9.8 percent in 2006). Other major issues of the health sector include its poor outreach to the remote areas and the marginalized people, inadequacy in training and utilisation of human resources, poor state management, and low quality of services partially due to the lack of modern technology and skilled staffs. Tourism services The Vietnamese tourist sector has enjoyed a rapid growth compared to the average of the world and surrounding regions. From 2001 to 2008, the number of international guests has been doubled, reaching 4.26 millions, whereas the number of domestic tourists has increased by 19 times, reaching 19.5 millions. Income from tourist sector increases 23.8% annually and recorded at VND 61 trillions in 2008. The number guests who come to Viet Nam for tourist purposes accounts for 26 percent of total foreign visitors, whereas these shares are 16 percent, 9 percent and 10 percent for business, family visiting and other purposes respectively. Most of the visitors are from ASEAN, Western Europe, and Northeast Asian region (Korea and Japan). There are currently 230 foreign companies and 1,542 domestic companies that provide both domestic and overseas tourist services in the market. However, domestic companies are modest in both capital investment and staffs. In addition, the application of information technology in tourist sector is low. Only around 60-70% three star hotels are using hotel management computer programs. Electronic payment is not popular even in big hotels. Passenger vehicles are old and inconvenient for long travel. There are currently 207,014 hotel rooms nationwide but there is a low accommodation density in scenery sites. Hotels that meet international standards only account for 21 percent of the total. Numerous government guest houses and hotels were also built long time ago and degrading. Average income from one foreign tourist in Viet Nam is $US 450, which is lower than the world level ($US 700) and in neighboring countries such as Thailand ($US 1,300). About 90 percent of tourists who come to Viet Nam are the first-time tourists. Yet, the share of multiple entry tourists is 80 percent for Thailand and 50-60 percent for China. Despite its recent development, Vietnamese tourist service sector is still facing many difficulties, for example, poor services, inadequate customer care, degradation of and pollution in the tourist sites, lack of professional staffs, low technology application, and absence of strong alliances among tourist providers to increase their service quality and competitiveness. 2.3 Str uctur e of the Vietnamese Ser vice Industr y The biggest service sector is the distributive trade sector, which accounted for almost 14 percent of the GDP in 2008, whereas the next three biggest service groups are transport, post and tourism (4.53 percent), hotel and restaurant (4.38 percent), and real estate and consultancy (3.63 percent). Their shares in the GDP of the service sector are 36.28 percent, 11.89 percent, 11.50 percent and 9.53 percent respectively. These are also the sectors which have experienced rapid growth. Large shares and relatively high growth rates of final demand services such as hotel and restaurant, and part of real estate and distribution occur as the economy has grown fast, brought wealth to the society and stimulate consumption which was discouraged in the centralized distribution system. In the current economic crisis, growth of those sectors appears slowing down but it will certainly bounce back as the economy recovers. Recent expansion of transport and real estate are taking place in the process of liberalization of those sectors, especially with the participation of the private sector 45 into the business, and as greater resources are channeled into the infrastructure development of the economy. 46 Table 8: Share in GDP of service groups (%) 1986 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 Service sector 33.06 38.59 44.06 38.74 38.01 38.06 38.12 38.10 Trade 12.69 13.01 16.38 14.23 13.56 13.63 13.66 13.82 Hotels and restaurants 3.17 4.23 3.77 3.25 3.49 3.68 3.93 4.38 Transport, post, tourism 1.67 3.45 3.98 3.93 4.36 4.5 4.44 4.53 Financial intermediation 0.23 1.17 2.01 1.84 1.80 1.81 1.81 1.84 Science and technology 0.33 0.54 0.61 0.53 0.63 0.62 0.62 0.62 Real estate and consultancy 4.34 6.14 5.41 4.34 4.01 3.78 3.80 3.63 State management 3.34 3.32 3.62 2.73 2.75 2.74 2.74 2.77 Educations and training 2.50 2.72 2.62 3.36 3.21 3.15 3.04 2.60 Health and social works 1.34 1.56 1.59 1.36 1.48 1.45 1.41 1.25 Sports and culture 0.50 0.46 0.55 0.58 0.50 0.47 0.45 0.41 Activities of party and membership organizations 0.17 0.10 0.10 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.13 Community, social and personal services 2.17 1.86 2.18 2.23 1.94 1.93 1.92 1.94 Private household with employed persons … 0.02 0.24 0.22 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 Sources: GSO (2000). Socio-economic Statistics of Viet Nam 1975-2000. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2004). Viet Nam 20 Years of Reforms and Development (1986-2005). Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2008). Statistical Yearbook 2007. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2008 and 2009). Annual Report 2008, Quarterly Report I/2009, and Half Year Report I/ 2009. 47 Table 9: Growth rate of service groups (%) Average annual growth rate 1996- 20012006 2000 2005 5.70 6.96 8.29 5.85 7.45 8.55 5.63 8.74 12.42 6.45 7.38 10.13 7.48 7.73 8.18 5.69 8.55 7.38 4.66 3.91 2.94 2.58 5.49 7.57 5.63 7.46 8.42 5.57 7.40 7.84 7.80 6.20 7.68 2007 2008 1996-2008 Service sector 8.68 7.18 6.72 Trade 8.67 6.34 6.92 Hotels and restaurants 12.72 8.54 6.09 Transport, post, tourism 10.42 13.84 7.94 Financial intermediation 8.82 6.63 7.66 Science and technology 7.67 6.14 7.10 Real estate and consultancy 4.07 2.49 4.02 State management 8.22 6.38 4.79 Educations and training 8.68 8.04 6.96 Health and social works 7.99 7.67 6.79 Sports and culture 7.98 7.83 7.19 Activities of party and membership organizations 12.49 5.94 7.42 8.05 6.92 8.77 Community, social and personal services 8.02 5.95 7.25 7.91 6.31 7.02 Private household with employed persons 5.84 3.39 7.45 8.49 7.94 5.37 Sources: GSO (2000). Socio-economic Statistics of Viet Nam 1975-2000. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2004). Viet Nam 20 Years of Reforms and Development (19862005). Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2008). Statistical Yearbook 2007. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2008 and 2009). Annual Report 2008, Quarterly Report I/2009, and Half Year Report I/ 2009 Nonetheless, shares of backbone services of the economy such as financial intermediation, science and technology and education are small even though these are rather fast growing sectors. Share in GDP of science and technology service has been almost unchanged at the level of 0.62 percent of the total GDP or 1.63 percent of the GDP of service sector in the past few years, whereas that of education and training service has been declining since the year 2000 to 2.60 percent of the total GDP or 6.83 percent of the GDP of service sector in 2007. 48 Figure 4: Share of service sectors (%) in 2007 0.34% 1.08% 6.83% 3.28% 5.09% 0.45% 36.28% 7.27% 9.53% 1.63% 4.83% 11.50% 11.89% Trade Financial intermediation State management Sports and culture Private household with employed persons Hotels and restaurants Science and technology Educations and training Activities of party and membership organizations Transport, post, tourism Real estate and consultancy Health and social works Community, social and personal services Sources: GSO (2000). Socio-economic Statistics of Viet Nam 1975-2000. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2004). Viet Nam 20 Years of Reforms and Development (19862005). Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2008). Statistical Yearbook 2007. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2008 and 2009). Annual Report 2008, Quarterly Report I/2009, and Half Year Report I/ 2009. New services such as securities, paid household services, and different kinds of business service activities associated with market economy (e.g. consultancy, auditing, accounting, market research, etc) are emerging fast and contributing to the dynamic and diversification of the service sector though their shares are minor. At the same time, old services which accounted for the large share in the commanded system such as state management are shrinking in relative term. Share of state management service fell down from 3.34 percent of the GDP in the beginning of the Doi Moi to 2.77 percent in 2008. Low shares in the GDP of a number of service sub-sectors are resulted from a small size of the service sector in the economy. However, there is a sharp skew in terms of distribution within the service sector as final demand services take a major share and leave small portion to be owned by intermediate services such as education which is the source for long-term and sustained growth or financial service which is a stipulator of rapid growth. In comparison, shares of distribution and catering services, finance and insurance services and health and social services in the GDP of the service sector were less than 20 percent, almost 14 percent and 13 percent for China in 2002 when service sector accounts for around 40 percent of the GDP even though construction is added into the service sector (ADFAT, 2005: 14). In India, where services account for around 48 percent of the GDP, banking and insurance services accounts for more than 14.5 percent of the service GDP in 2001. 49 Table 10: Share of employment of service sectors GDP Employment Thousands people Share in the Share of Share in entire GDP of entire service service economy (%) sector sector --100.00 100 100 26.10 Entire economy Entire service sector Trade Hotels and restaurants Transport, post, tourism Financial intermediation Science and technology 44171.9 11535.8 5291.7 813.9 1217.3 209.9 26.9 11.98 1.84 2.76 0.48 0.06 45.87 7.06 10.55 1.82 0.23 36.28 11.50 11.89 4.83 1.63 Real estate and consultancy 216 0.49 1.87 9.53 State management 793.2 1.80 6.88 Educations and training 1356.6 3.07 11.76 Health and social works 384.3 0.87 3.33 Sports and culture 136.4 0.31 1.18 Activities of party and membership organizations 192.9 0.44 1.67 Community, social and personal services and hired household services 896.7 2.03 7.77 GSO (2008). Statistical Yearbook 2007. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House 7.27 6.83 3.28 1.08 0.34 5.09 Regarding the shares of each service sub-sector in the GDP and total employment, there are clearly two categories of services. Those which stipulate growth and contribute to GDP increase are science and technology, financial intermediation, hotels and restaurants, real estate and consultancy and to a lesser extent transport, post and tourism. Those which generate employment are trade, education, sport and culture, party and organization services, community, social and personal services. Science and technology is most effective in terms of growth stipulation whereas party and organization services are most effective in terms of employment generation. These are also evidenced by the level of GDP per worker for each sector as science and technology, real estate and consultancy maintain big gap from the others, followed by and financial intermediation and transport, post and tourism. It is important to know that although state management is often seen as source of employment, it indeed contributes to GDP growth more than job growth because of the downsizing of the government agencies. Sectors such as distribution service which remains more the source of employment so far just because it is still underdeveloped and the forms of modern distribution have not fully grown. 50 Table 11: GDP per worker in 2007 GDP per worker (thousand, 2007 price) 25,899 37,808 29,534 55,232 41,706 98,866 262,570 201,430 39,505 25,668 42,027 38,087 Entire economy Entire service sector Trade Hotels and restaurants Transport, post, tourism Financial intermediation Science and technology Real estate and consultancy State management Educations and training Health and social works Sports and culture Activities of party and membership organizations 7,387 Community, social, personal services and hired household services 26,639 GSO (2008). Statistical Yearbook 2007. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House 2.4 Pr ofiles of Ser vice Fir ms in Viet Nam Service enterprises account for 61.19 percent of the total enterprises in the Vietnamese economy. The number of service enterprise also grows faster than the number of enterprise in the economy. Health, education, business services and science and technology are those sectors which have experienced most rapid increase in the number of enterprises thanks to the opening of the economy which allows for greater participation of the non-state sector into the delivery of both old and newly emerged services. In terms of shares, commercial sector owns the largest portion of the total service enterprise (65.35 percent), followed by real estate and consultancy (13.75 percent), transport, post and tourism (9.58 percent), and hotels and restaurants (6.37 percent). Thus, the shares of other service sectors are negligible. For example, despite its rapid growth in terms of number, companies operating in the field of science and technology still account for less than 0.01 percent of the total service enterprises. 51 Table 12: Service Enterprises by Sectors, 2000 and 2006 2000 2006 2006/2000 (%) 310,5 335.2 Entire economy 42288 131318 Service sector 23973 80350 Trade and repair of motor vehicles and household goods 17547 52505 299.2 Hotels and restaurants 1919 5116 266.6 Transport, post, tourism 1796 7695 428.5 Financial intermediation 935 1741 186.2 Science and technology 6 33 550 Real estate and consultancy 1375 11050 803.6 Educations and training 77 785 1019.5 Health and social works 25 256 1024 Sports and culture 120 491 409.2 Community, social, personal services and hired household services 173 678 391.9 GSO (2008). Statistical Yearbook 2007. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House Share in 2006 (%) 100 65.35 6.37 9.58 2.17 0.04 13.75 0.98 0.32 0.61 0.84 The majority of service enterprises in Viet Nam are small both in terms of employees and capital. Most service enterprises have less than 9 employees and very few enterprises employ more than 200 staffs. For example, more than 82 percent of post and telecommunication enterprises employ less than 9 persons. These proportions are around three quarters for the groups of trade and repair of motor vehicles and household goods and community, social, personal services and hired household services respectively. Sport and culture activities have highest proportion of enterprises with more than 200 staffs, at 8.11 percent, whereas the groups of commerce and repair services, and community, social, personal and hire household services have lowest share, at 0.65 percent, for each. 52 Table 13: Share of service enterprise in terms of number of employees in 2006 Size of employees Sectors 5< 5-9 10-49 50-199 > 200 Total Trade and repair of motor vehicles and household goods 20.61 53.78 22.10 2.86 0.65 100 Hotels and restaurants 18.10 41.71 32.00 6.65 1.54 100 Transport, and storage 6.49 41.53 38.34 10.38 3.25 100 Post and telecommunication 49.89 32.77 12.05 2.11 3.17 100 Financial intermediation 26.48 42.62 23.38 5.17 2.35 100 Science and technology 6.06 63.64 24.24 3.03 3.03 100 Real estate and consultancy 27.77 47.01 20.51 3.44 1.27 100 Educations and training 2.73 43.36 38.67 12.89 2.34 100 Health and social works 15.48 46.23 25.87 7.74 4.68 100 Sports and culture 10.18 46.61 27.29 7.82 8.11 100 Community, social, personal services and hired household services 20.61 53.78 22.10 2.86 0.65 100 Source: author calculated from GSO (2008). Statistical Yearbook 2007. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House Except in the financial sector, more than three quarters of service enterprises have the capital of VND 5 billions or less. Science and technology sector and post and telecommunication sector have the lowest proportion of enterprises with more than VND 5 billions at 6.06 percent and 6.35 percent respectively. However, 53.76 percent of enterprises in the financial service sector have the capital of more than VND 5 billions. Table 14: Share of service enterprises in terms of size of capital in 2006 Sectors Trade and repair of motor vehicles and household goods Hotels and restaurants Transport, and storage Post and telecommunication Financial intermediation Science and technology Real estate and consultancy Educations and training Health and social works Sports and culture Community, social, personal services and hired household services Source: author calculated from GSO Publishing House Amount of Capital (VND billion) 0.5 < 0.5-1.0 1.0 – 5.0 5.0-10.0 > 10.0 Total 8.48 24.77 11.92 53.07 24.76 15.15 15.35 33.51 8.98 24.85 7.11 7.76 12.41 4.02 27.74 3.03 10.12 4.35 14.84 13.24 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 18.00 23.26 14.59 19.66 5.92 15.15 21.38 33.38 11.33 27.49 58.04 38.02 52.44 20.93 15.57 63.64 46.92 27.84 56.25 29.94 8.38 6.20 8.64 2.33 26.02 3.03 6.23 4.49 8.59 4.48 45.13 20.35 18.44 3.69 12.39 100 (2008). Statistical Yearbook 2007. Hanoi: Statistical In many service sectors, state-owned enterprises (or state agencies) are still the main and biggest providers. In some cases, they enjoy monopoly such as Viet Nam Social Insurance in pension for public sector, Viet Nam Railway Corporation in rail transport service, and Viet Nam News Agency in news agency sector. Or they have oligopoly and control large share of 53 the market. For instance, VINALINES controls more than 53 percent of total shipping capacity of maritime transport. The airline services are dominated by Viet Nam airline (in passenger services), Service Flight Corporation of Viet Nam (SFC) (helicopter services), and Viet Nam Air Service Company (VASCO) (air support services). In banking, five stateowned commercial banks (BIDV, Vietcombank, Agribank, Vietinbank, and MHB) owned 51 percent of total banking assets, and almost 57 percent of total deposits in 2008. In the telecommunication sector, Viettel Corporation, MobiFone and VinaPhone held 88 percent of the mobile market, whereas VNPT/VDC, Viettel and FPT Telecom possessed more than 90 percent of the ADSL market in 2008. While the activities of the SOEs are still regulated by the 2003 SOE law, according to the Enterprise Law in 2005 (Article 166), within four year since the Enterprise Law enters into force (on 1/7/2006), SOEs which were established under the 2003 SOE Law must be transformed into limited liability companies or joint-stock companies in line with the Enterprise Law. In March 2007, the Prime Minister issued Decision 38/2007/QD-TTg which classifies the SOEs into two categories: the SOEs of which 100 percent registered capital is state-owned, and the SOEs to be equitized but state still controls over 50 percent of stocks. All SOEs are scheduled for equitization before 2010. Current step of SOEs reforms is the pilot establishment of the major state economic groups and special general state corporations in key economic sectors on the basis of 18 state general corporations (so-called the 91 general corporations) which were established in 1994 under the Decision 91/TTg by the Prime Minister. By 2009, 8 state economic groups and 12 special general state corporations have been created, including services providers such as VNPT, Viet Nam Railway and State Capital Investment Corporation. These economic organizations are put under the direct administrative management of the Prime Minister. 24 State Economic Groups are organized according to holding (parent) company – affiliated company models. 25 Holding company is state-owned and operates according to the SOE Law. Affiliated companies are limited liability companies or joint-stock companies. Although the aim of this restructure program is to increase the specialized capability and competitiveness of the important SOEs, some economic groups already took advantage of their capital scale to venture into their non-core business activities such as securities, banking and real estates more than on the expansion and improvement of their core services. Over the past years, the participation of the private sector, including foreign investors, into the service sector has been significantly expanded. In the airline, Pacific Airlines (Jetstar Pacific) was established as the first joint venture. In November 2007, the government approved the establishment of the first privately-owned airline known as Vietjet Aviation Joint Stock Company, and in May 2008, the second company Indochina Airlines. In maritime, GEMATRANS (Asia) Co., Ltd. and APM – Sai Gon Shipping are two joint-venture companies with significant roles in container transport. In banking sector, from 1997 to 2008, the share of joint stock commercial banks increased from 11.86 percent to 32.45 percent in terms of assets, and from 10.6 percent to 31.23 percent in terms of deposit. In 2008, five foreign banks – HSBC and Standard Chartered (UK), ANZ Bank (Australia and New Zealand), Shinhan Bank (South Korea), and Hong Leong Bank (Malaysia) – were given permission to set up fully-owned subsidiaries which allow them to compete for market shares in earnest (BMI 2009, QIII: 29). In the telecom market, besides Vinaphone, MobiFone, and Viettel, there are also the joint ventures such as S-Fone, Hanoi Telecom (HT Mobile), Gtel 24 25 Except Bao Viet Financial Group which is put under the administrative management of Ministry of Finance. Except Bao Viet Financial Group which is a joint-stock company. 54 Mobile in mobile service and FPT in fixed line. In the insurance sector, dominant service providers are joint stock and private companies such as PVI, Bao Minh, Bao Viet, AAA, and BIC, which account for 83 percent of the non-life insurance market. Distribution services are attracting major foreign distributors such as Metro Cash & Carry (Germany), Big C (France), and Parkson (Lion Group, Singapore). In public services, the government has actively called for socialization, accepting the delivery of services such as education, health and culture and sport, by private sector and the NGOs to increase service quality and to reduce the burden of state budget. New forms of state – non state coordination in public services delivery such as public-private partnership have been also experimented under the assistance of international NGOs and development agencies. The context of liberalization has made the understanding of public services as being provided only by the government become less relevant. The opening of domestic service market presses the providers of services such as education, healthcare, sport and culture and publication to see the need of commercialization to sustain. 2.5 Competitiveness Issues Related to Development of Ser vice Sector Competitiveness Index: The Global Competitiveness Report 2008-2009 (GCR) has ranked Viet Nam 70th out of 134 countries in 2008 for competitiveness index with the score of 4.1 out of 7. Viet Nam ranked 64th in 2006 (out of 122 countries) and 68th in 2007 (out of 131 countries). Taking into account new economies inserted to the list, Viet Nam’s competitiveness ranking has fallen from 68th in 2007 to 69th in 2008. Comparing with other Southeast Asian and some East Asian economies, Viet Nam performs better than the Philippines and Cambodia (Laos and Myanmar have not been ranked) but worse than China. Survey to produce the inputs to the GCR 2008-2009 indicates that the relative strength of the Vietnamese economy are overall macroeconomic stability, health and primary education, labor market efficiency and market size, whereas the weaknesses are infrastructure, higher education, innovation and technology readiness. 55 Table 15: Ranks of selected economies in global competitiveness index Ranks in 2008 Score in 2008 Ranks in 2007 Singapore 5 5.53 7 Japan 9 5.38 8 Hongkong 11 5.33 12 South Korea 13 5.28 11 Taiwan 17 5.22 14 Malaysia 21 5.04 21 China 30 4.70 34 Thailand 34 4.60 28 Brunei 39 4.54 n/a Indonesia 55 4.25 54 Viet Nam 70 4.10 68 The Philippines 71 4.09 71 Cambodia 109 3.53 110 Source: Viet Nam’s ranking fell 2 grades in Global Competitiveness Index Table.. 09/10/2008. http://Viet Namnet.vn/kinhte/2008/10/807594/ Competitive Business Environment: Viet Nam ranks 82nd out of 121 economies in 2006, and 76th out of 127 economies in 2007 for its business competitiveness index. When counting the number of newly enlisted economies, the rank is however unchanged. Vietnamese business environment is attractive in term of labor regulations, political stability, security and public health though the attractiveness in labor regulation can be a double-edged sword since it may be resulted from inadequate labor regulations. Figure 5 indicates that over the past three years, Viet Nam has made further progress to reduce the impression of corruption in the business environment despite some major corruption scandals discovered recently, and to change the perception about the inefficiency of the government bureaucracy thanks to the administrative reforms. Nonetheless, Viet Nam has done little to improve the impression about its poor infrastructures and insufficient qualified labor force. Since 2007, the perception of policy instability has increased considerably, probably because of expectation about policy changes after the WTO accession, and this may affect the business environment for service sector more than the manufacturing since the latter was already quite open. One important remark on macroeconomic stability condition in 2008 is the high inflation rate, which caused a lot of difficulties to the service business, especially the real estate and banking sectors. 56 Figure 5: Business Environment: The Most Problematic Factors for Doing Business in Viet Nam 20 19.04 18.82 17.9 18 16.5 16 13.49 14 14.8 14.1 13 12 9.47 10 12.6 10.6 9 7.9 8.2 8 8.38 8.3 8.2 8.1 6.86 7.7 7.73 7.6 6.4 6 4 2.18 3.81 3.4 3.9 3.1 3.26 2 0.87 2 3.7 3.1 1.96 2.1 1.9 2.18 1.8 1.4 1.96 1.2 0.9 0 0 0.6 he al th pu bl ic th ef t 2006 Po or an d rim e C In ef fi c Ta ie nt x ra go te ve s rn m en tb ur ea Fo uc re ra ig cy n cu rre nc y re gu R la es ti o tri ns ct iv e la bo rr eg G ul ov at er io nm ns en ti ns ta bi lity /c ou ps re gu la ti o ns Ta x fin an ci ng to Ac ce ss Po or w or k et hi c in Po l ic na tio na ll y ab or fo rc e in st ab il it y pt io n or ru C wo rk fo rc e ed uc at ed y su pp l In ad eq ua te In ad eq ua te ly of i nf ra st ru ct ur e In fl a tio n 0 2007 2008 Sources: WEF. Global competitiveness report, 2006-2007, 2007-2008, 2008-2009. Note: From a list of 14 factors (in 2006 and 2007) and 15 factors (in 2008), respondents were asked to select the five most problematic for doing business in their country/economy and to rank them between 1 (most problematic) and 5. The bars in the figure show the responses weighted according to their rankings. 57 Factor conditions: At present, Vietnamese economy is still at the factor-driven stage of growth. So is the service sector in Viet Nam. In other words, growth of service sector depends much on factor endowment such as labor, capital, infrastructures, and natural resources. Out of 134 economies, GCR 2008-2009 ranks Viet Nam 93rd for infrastructures, and 98th for higher education and training with the respective scores of 2.9 and 3.4 out of 7, lower than number of economies in East and Southeast Asia such as China, Thailand, and even the Philippines which rank below Viet Nam in their overall GCI, and higher only than Cambodia. Poor infrastructures and education and training at the higher level are the barriers to the enhancement of the competitiveness of the service sector. Especially, poor quality of higher education and training serves as a bottleneck to the expansion of modern and sophisticated service sectors. However, Viet Nam still possesses certain comparative advantages in many of its services, for example, natural and cultural resources for the development of tourist sector and other culture and recreation-related activities. In 2008, Tourist magazine Conde Nast Traveller listed Viet Nam among top 20 most favorable tourist destinations in the world. In addition, macroeconomic and political stability and efficient labor market are other advantages to attract foreign investment into the service sector. Viet Nam ranks 47th for its labor market efficiency, higher than China but lower than Indonesia and Cambodia. Demand conditions: GCR 2008-2009 ranks Viet Nam 40th out of 134 economies with the score of 4.4 over 7, higher than Brunei and Cambodia but lower than the Philippines. Comparative advantage in size of Vietnamese service market lies in large population, and rapid economic growth that generates higher incomes for consumers. The recent boom of retail trade market and real estate sector is a clear example. The Global Retail Development Index 2008 released by American consultancy firm A.T.Kearney ranks Vietnamese retail market first in the world. Industrialization and modernization also create higher demand for intermediate services such as transport, telecommunication, banking and education. In addition, the process of international economic integration has enlarged the export markets for Viet Nam’s trade in services especially in those sectors it possesses comparative advantage such as tourism. GCR 2008-2009 ranks Viet Nam 29th for its foreign market size variable, showing that the business opportunities in foreign market are even more attractive than in domestic market. Firm structure, strategy and rivalry: In such services as banking, rail transport, airlines, telecommunication, broadcasting, pension for public sector and news agencies, monopoly and oligopoly by large SOEs or government agencies exist. Nonetheless, competition among dominant service suppliers has become fiercer over the past years to gain the share of the markets in such booming sectors as commerce, telecommunication, banking, airlines and insurance. Current competing strategies are mostly based on prices rather than quality of the services. Measures to stipulate sophisticated demands of customers are lacking. GCR 20082009 ranks Viet Nam 84th for its business sophistication as a comparative disadvantage. In addition, as indicated above, the majority of the Vietnamese service firms, especially in the private sector, are small in both labor and capital sizes in the face of foreign giants. 58 Table 16: Ranking of pillars for competitiveness of selected economies, 2008-2009 South Hongkong Korea Taiwan Malaysia China Thailand Brunei Indonesia 9 28 40 30 56 57 41 68 5 15 19 23 47 29 39 86 Viet Nam 71 93 Singapore Japan Philippines Cambodia Institution 1 26 105 103 Infrastructure 4 11 92 97 Macroeconomic stability 21 98 3 4 18 38 11 41 2 72 70 53 105 Health and primary education 16 22 43 26 20 23 50 58 47 87 84 90 111 Higher education and training 8 23 28 12 13 35 64 51 69 71 98 60 127 Goods market efficiency 1 18 2 22 14 23 51 46 91 37 70 81 88 Labor market efficiency 2 11 4 41 21 19 51 13 16 43 47 101 33 Financial market sophistication 2 42 1 37 58 16 109 49 75 57 80 78 130 Technological readiness 7 21 10 13 15 34 77 66 54 88 79 70 123 Market size 41 3 26 13 16 28 2 21 116 17 40 34 95 Business sophistication 14 3 13 16 12 22 43 46 89 39 84 57 110 Innovation 11 4 24 9 7 22 28 54 91 47 57 76 112 Sources: WEF. Global competitiveness report, 2008-2009. Note: For those economies ranked lower than 50 in the overall GCI, any individual variables ranked higher than 51 are considered as advantages. Any variables ranked lower than 50 are considered as disadvantages. 59 Related and supporting industries: Intermediate services in Viet Nam are less developed and given less attention than the final demand services. Weakness in infrastructure and higher education factors is indeed resulted from poor performance of such service sectors as transport, and higher education. According to GCR 2008-2009 ranking, quality of overall infrastructure, including road, port, airlines and electricity, represents the comparative disadvantages of the economy. GCR 2008-2009 also ranks Viet Nam 79th for its technological readiness, listing legal element, availability of latest technology, mobile telephone and broadband internets subscribers as comparative disadvantages. Vietnamese financial market is ranked 80th, higher than China, but below Indonesia, and the Philippines for its sophistication, and it is regarded as unsupportive and constitutes a comparative disadvantage of the economy. Even though new supportive service sectors have emerged as business services, the process of “externalization” or “outsourcing” (i.e., purchasing business support services from external providers) is still limited or cut short because Vietnamese small or informal enterprises tend to produce all kind of service inputs by themselves. 2.6 Viet Nam’s Tr ade in Ser vices Service trade volume has increased constantly during the 1991-2008 period (except the year 1999) at an annual rate of 24.1 percent. From 1991 to 2008, the annual growth rates of service export and import volumes are 22.6 percent and 25.9 percent whereas those of the total export and import volumes are 20.1 percent and 21 percent respectively. The share of service trade in total foreign trade turnover increased from 6 percent in 1990 to 30.4 percent in 1995 before falling to 19.8 percent in 2000, 11.5 percent in 2005 and 9.5 percent in 2008. Figure 6: Service trade volume of Viet Nam, 1990-2008 ($US millions) 15011 16000 13636 14000 10892 12000 10000 8606 7322 8000 6000 4129 4547 5683 5762 5533 5954 6192 6646 2547 4000 2000 8745 308 719 1136 1466 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Author calculated from WTO (2004). Statistics. GSO (2008). Statistical Yearbook 2007. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2008 and 2009). Annual Report 2008, Quarterly Report I/2009, and Half Year Report I/ 2009. During the 2001-2008 period, the annual growth rate of service export is 12.15 percent, which is however still lower than that of goods export (above 20 percent). By the end of 2008, the proportion of service exports in total exports of the economy is just 10.2 percent which is below the average world level (20.0 percent) and even below the average level of the transitional economies (14-15 percent). 60 At the same time, Viet Nam’s service imports have increased considerably, from $US 2.304 billions in 1996 to $US3.382 billions in 2001, $US 5.036 billions in 2005, and $US 7.931 billions in 2008. As a result, service trade deficit has been rising fast, from $US 61 millions in 1996, when it first occurred, to $US 872 in 2004 at its climax, and to $US 819 million in 2008. Table 17: Service Exports and Imports of Viet Nam, 1990-2008 Export Import Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Turn-over (USD million) Change (%) Share in Turn-over (USD export (%) million) Change (%) Service exports Share in minus imports imports (USD (%) million) 4.4 56 10.4 179 14.0 312 15.0 78 17.8 19 19.6 165 17.1 -61 21.4 -623 21.3 -530 20.6 -547 17.2 -550 17.3 -572 15.8 -750 13.8 -778 11.5 -872 10.9 -215 11.4 -692 10.3 -716 8.9 -819 182 7.0 126 449 146.7 17.7 270 114.3 724 61.2 21.9 412 52.6 772 6.6 20.5 694 68.4 1283 66.2 24.0 1264 82.1 2147 67.3 28.3 1982 56.8 2243 4.5 23.6 2304 16.2 2530 12.8 21.6 3153 36.8 2616 3.4 21.8 3146 -0.2 2493 -4.7 17.8 3040 -3.4 2702 8.4 15.7 3252 7.0 2810 4.0 15.8 3382 4.0 2948 4.9 15.0 3698 9.3 3272 11.0 14.0 4050 9.5 3867 18.2 12.7 4739 17.0 4265 10.3 11.6 4480 -5.5 5100 19.6 11.4 5792 29.3 6460 26.7 11.7 7176 23.9 7096 9.8 10.2 7915 10.3 Source: WTO (2004). Statistics. GSO (2008). Statistical Yearbook 2007. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2008 and 2009). Annual Report 2008, Quarterly Report I/2009, and Half Year Report I/ 2009 Tourism, airlines, maritime transport and finance are four largest export sectors, accounting for around 93.1 percent of total service export in 2008. During the 2005-2008 period, shares of tourism, airlines, and maritime transport increased from 53.9 percent, 15.4 percent and 12 percent to 56.7 percent, 18.6 percent, and 14.6 percent respectively. In contrast, the share of financial services decrased from 5.2 percent in 2005 to 3.2 percent in 2008. Tourism, airlines and the group of “other services” account for more than 37 percent of total service import in 2008. However, largest portion belongs to the cost of insurance and freight paid for transportation in foreign trade, accounting for almost 53 percent of total service import value in 2008. 61 Table 18: Trade of selected service sectors, 2005-2008 ($US million) 2005 2006 2007 2008 Share in 2008 (%) I. Export 4,265 5,100 6,460 7,096 100 1. Tourism 2,300 2,850 3,750 4,020 56.65 2. Airlines 657 890 1,069 1,322 18.63 3. Maritime 510 650 810 1,034 14.57 4. Post and telecommunication 100 120 110 80 1.13 5. Finance 220 270 332 230 3.24 6. Insurances 45 50 65 60 0.85 7. Government services 33 40 45 50 0.70 8. Other services 400 230 279 300 II. Import 4,480 5,792 7,176 7,915 4.23 100 1. Tourism 900 1,050 1,220 1,300 16.42 2. Airlines 630 700 820 800 10.11 3. Maritime 170 210 250 300 3.79 4. Post and telecommunication 31 30 47 54 0.68 5. Finance 230 270 300 230 2.91 6. Insurances 130 160 210 150 1.90 7. Government services 30 40 40 50 0.63 8. Other services 850 850 1.030 850 10.74 2,482 3,259 4,181 9. Cost of insurance and freight in imports 1,509 52.82 Sources: Statistical Yearbook 2007. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House; GSO (2008 and 2009). Annual Report 2008, Quarterly Report I/2009, and Half Year Report I/ 2009. Author calculated based on those data. 2.7 Tr ends in Demand for Vietnamese Ser vices The Vietnamese economy has been undergoing a difficult moment under the impact of the global economic and financial crisis. The y-o-y GDP growth rate in the first half of 2009 was 3.9 percent for the whole economy whereas those of the first (agriculture, aquaculture, and forestry), second (manufacturing and construction) and tertiary (services) sectors were 1.25 percent, 3.48 percent and 5.5 percent respectively. These are the contractions comparing with the growth rates of 6.5 percent for the whole economy and 3.04 percent, 3.48 percent and 7.6 percent correspondingly for three sectors in the first half of 2008. 62 Because of economic difficulties, deamand for some services has been contracting since 2008. The growth rate of the number of foreign tourists to Viet Nam declined from the recored 17.2 percent in 2007 to merely 0.6 percent in 2008. Banking sector also had a hard time because of high inflation that forced the interest rates to rise above the ceiling of 10 percent in the past years to as high as 19 percent per year for deposit rate and 21 percent per year for lending rates. Stock market recessed as VNIndex lost almost 65.7 percent of its value against 2007. Demands for martime transport declined considrably. The number of orders and freight has fallen since the end of the second quarter of 2008 as much as 70 percent by the mid 2009. The use of major cargos for some domestic cabotage routes is virtually suspended to cut cost. Vinalines estimates that in 2009, volume of maritime transport would decline by 10 percent, whereas turnover and profit would decline by 15 percent and 40 percent respectively in comparison with 2008. In 2008, aggregate consumption grew at 9.01 percent in real price against 10.63 percent in 2007. The growth of government consumption was 7.5 percent (8.9 percent in 2007) and that of household consumption was 9.16 percent (10.8 percent in 2007) (CIEM, 2009: 16). Despite economic recession, Viet Nam proves attractive for distribution service. In 2008, total trade volume was $US 47 billions, and grew 20 percent on the y-o-y basis. It is also expected to reach $US 53 billions by 2010. According to market research company TNS Viet Nam, Vietnamese middle class has emerged quickly and become wealthier. In 2008, 45 percent of Vietnamese housholds have their monthly income within the range of VND 4.5 millions and VND 20 millions and one third of the urban households have their monthly income above VND 6.5 millions. Over the past two years, although inflation rate was as high as 36 percent, this does not seem to affect much confidence of the Viet Namee consumers. Average saving of the Vietnamese has declined from 17 percent in 1999 to just 9 percent in 2008. The semiannual Nielsen global consumer confidence index published in April showed that Vietnamese consumers were the most optimistic in the world when it came to believing that the domestic economy would exit the current downturn by the end of 2009 (BMI 2009, QIII: 19, 20). Younger generation and the wealthier middle class are now more selective to their service consumption. They also care more about the the brandnames and quality of services provided. Survey has indicated that 90 percent of consumers said that they would like to pay more for quality goods and services. Although banking sector had a difficult year in 2008, its demand still remains high and continues to grow in the coming years. The proportion of ATM users among urban consumers increased from 2 percent in 2006 to 9 percent in 2008. The number of ATM cards is expected to reach 15 million ATM cards by 2010, and 30 millions by 2020. The proportion of urban consumers who have their banking account increased from 29 percent in 2006 to 38 percent in 2008. By 2010, it is prediected that 70 percent of public employees and 50 percent of employees in the private sector, equivalent to 20 million people, will be paid through their banking accounts. These proportions are expected to reach 95 percent and 80 percent by 2020 respectively, equivalent to 45 million people. In addition, TNS Viet Nam predicts that by 2010, 70 percent of service suppliers such as commercial centers, restaurants and supermarkets will be able to accept credit card payment, and this ratio is expected to reach 95 percent by 2020. Telecommunication is among a few service sectors which have been less affected by the current economic contraction. Despite its rapid expansion over the past years, Vietnamese telecommunication market still appears to have strong growth potential. Penetration rate of the mobile network has increased from 53 percent in 2006 to 84 percent in 2008. In the rural 63 areas, one person out of three households is now using cell phone. One third of Vietnamese households are now able to connect to the internet and 50 percent of Vietnamese households possess computers. Besides the popular uses of internet such as to read news, listen to the music and chat, e-commerce is developing quickly together with the advertising services on the web. In the long run, trend in demand for Vietnamese services depends on a number of important factors such as the growth of the economy, population and foreign markets as well as pattern of consumption by the customers, including the business sector. According to the recent BMI Reports, Viet Nam would join the 100 million population club by 2020. Business Monitor International Reports (BMI) have suggested two scenarios for the Vietnamese economy from now to 2018. Optimistic scenario proposed by the 2009 First Quarter Report predicts that the economy would grow at 5 percent in 2009, which is close to the target set by the National Assembly. This growth rate however was revised in the 2009 Third Quarter BMI to be just 2.9 percent, and the economy was predicted to fully recover by 2014. With the first and second scenarios, GDP per capita of Viet Nam would reach around $US 3900, and $US 2600 respectively by 2018. Large population and higher income would raise the demand of the Vietnamese service market. In addition, two important trends of service development in the world that may have important effects on the demands for Vietnamese services by outsiders are increased service outsourcing and of service commercial presence abroad. Unfortunately, Vietnamese service firms and their workers are not well prepared to fulfill the increased demand of its trading partners for the knowledge based services, especially for the so-called “strategic business services” such as software development, information processing, R&D, technical services, marketing, business mangement and human development services which have been growing above 10 percent per annum recently in the developed economies. Lack of this capability put Viet Nam at the risk of losing its both domestic and foreign service markets to regional competititors such as Southeast Asian economies and China. 64 Table 19: Optimistic Scenario of Growth Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Real GDP growth, 8.2 8.5 6.2 5.0 9.3 8.8 8.2 8.0 8.0 8.0 % change y-o-y Population, mn 84.4 85.6 86.8 89.5 90.84 92.0 93.1 94.2 95.3 96.5 GDP per capita, 723 829 975 939 1149 1407 1724 1976 2266 2597 US$ Source: BMI Viet Nam 2009, QIII, pp 19 (year 2006-2008). QI pp 2 (year 2009-2010); pp 29 (year 2011-2018). 2016 8.0 2017 8.0 2018 8.0 97.6 2977 98.7 3415 99.8 3918 Table 20: Pessimistic Scenario of Growth Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Real GDP growth, 8.2 8.5 6.2 2.9 5.0 7.0 7.7 7.9 % change y-o-y Population, mn 84.4 85.6 86.8 88.0 89.2 90.4 91.6 92.8 GDP per capita, 723 829 975 1024 1065 1229 1432 1587 US$ Source: BMI Viet Nam 2009, QIII, pp 19 (year 2006-2013) & 31 (year 2014-2018). 65 2014 8.0 2015 8.0 2016 8.0 2017 8.0 2018 8.0 94.1 1753 95.4 1937 96.7 2141 98.0 2365 99.3 2614 2.8 Viet Nam’s ser vices gap There is a popular misconception in such transitional economies as Viet Nam given the resource constraint that the country needs to have an industrialization process which focuses more on the manufacturing than the service sector. In fact, the labor and natural resource intensive industrialization in Latin America and China have proved to be unsustainable development process. In contrast, such economies as Hong Kong gave priority to the development of the service sector and have become a developed service economy. Similarly, some thirty years ago, India made a right decision by prioritizing the high-tech services including the information technology. Since the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century, the service sector proves to be both the source of and the shield from the economic instabilities in many regions in the world as well as at the global scale. In the aftermath of the 1997-1998 financial crisis, the Asian tigers shifted their focus more decisively to the sustained growth of the service sector. After the WTO accession, to ensure a balanced and harmonized socio-economic development, China also accorded greater emphasis to the service sector and saw it as the supporter and promoter of the manufacturing sector. Viet Nam has strived to accomplish 8 Millennium Development Goals (MDG) by the year 2015 and to become a new Asian tiger in the first decades of the 21st century. The Resolutions of the National Party Congress set the goal to make Viet Nam become a basically industrialized country by the year 2020. Although Vietnamese service sector has been an increasingly important source of economic growth, its GDP share is still modest and has remained almost constant over the past years. At present, the service sector accounts for 38.5 percent of the GDP, below the share in the GDP of service sectors in a number of transitional economies and the economies in Southeast Asia (e.g. Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia and Indonesia). In other transitional economies, whose GNI per capita exceeds $US 2000 (low medium income threshold) such as Romania, Bulgaria, and Russia, the service sector account for more than 50 percent of the GDP, and whose GNI per capita exceed $US 4000 (high medium income threshold) such as Hungary, Latvia and Litva, the service sector accounts for more than 60 percent of the GDP (UNDP, 2006: 2). Even in the major cities of Viet Nam, the GDP share of the service sector is still not high. For instance, service sector accounts for 57.5 percent, 50.4 percen 43.6 percent, 48.3 percent and 42.7 percent of the GDP of Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh city, Hai Phong, Da Nang and Can Tho respectively. To the same extent, the share of service employment in the total employment of the Vietnamese economy is low. Service sector accounts for merely 26.7 percent of total employment in 2008 whereas these shares were 36.5 and 40.9 percent in Southeast Asia and Asia-Pacific region respectively in 2007. Nonetheless, the GDP share of Vietnamese service sector may be underestimated because of the exclusion of the informal service activities and such sectors as construction and utilities supply from the official service statistics. This statistical gap needs to be bridged in order to have fuller assessment of the development state of the Vietnamese service sector. Within the service sector, final demand services such as retail distribution, hotels and restaurants and tourism account for the major share both in terms of the GDP and employment. For instance, the distributive trade sector accounted for more than 36 percent of the GDP and almost 46 percent of the employment of the service sector in 2007. In contrast, the shares of backbone services such as financial intermediation, science and technology and education are small even though these are rather fast growing sectors. Although new services 66 such as securities, paid household services, and various kinds of business service activities are emerging fast, their shares are minor. Part of the reason is the emergence of a wealthier and consuming economy. Another part is a mentioned misconception that directs the priority of the producers in the market and the policy to the development of consumer or final demand services. In this regard, the “prioritization” of services in the development strategy of Viet Nam must take into account the overall development level of the country and its foothold in the international market in order to come up with realistic goals. For example, it is more realistic for Viet Nam to choose to become a competitive service provider next to China which already established its firm position as the world manufacturer. In addition, the industry and services have a strong inter-linkage, which should be taken into account in the overall development strategy to ensure that both sectors grow side-by-side and are supportive to each other. The service structure also indicates that high value-added intermediate services which are critical for enhancing the competitiveness of the whole economy remain underdeveloped and are not capable of meeting the needs of the economy. In this respect, the General Framework for a National Strategy for the Services Sector in Viet Nam up to 2020 suggested prioritizing the service sectors which have significant multiplier and ‘breakthrough’ potential for the increase of competitiveness and overall economic development: telecommunications/ICT, education and training, and business services. Although services comprise over half of Viet Nam’s enterprises (UNDP, 2006), the size of the majority of Vietnamese service firms is still small both in terms of capital and employment. In addition, there are a large number of very small and unregistered service providers including individuals and households who have their business in the informal sector. Nonetheless, there are a few big providers in the service sectors under the monopoly and oligopoly of the state such as telecommunication, airlines, rail transport, maritime transport, banking, insurance, and pension. Overall, the competitiveness of the Vietnamese service sector is low and this is also true for sectors that have such comparative advantage as tourism. Productivity levels are comparatively low and caused by various reasons such as low skilled labor force, small economy of scale, low technology and outdated facilities. In addition, current competitive and marketing strategy among the service firms still focuses on the price rather than quality dimension. Recent establishment of the so-called economic groups in some service sectors is said to increase the competitiveness of Vietnamese companies in terms of scale and market share and to provide the regulatory mechanism of the state on the economy in the face of global economic integration. However, this may strengthen the monopolies of the state and distort competitiveness dynamics in the service sector. Overall, the share of Vietnamese trade in services in total foreign trade is still modest and on a trend of decline in 2008. In addition, Vietnamese services trade deficit is growing. Maritime transportation accounts for a large share of service trade deficit because of high cost of freight and insurance paid to foreign companies. Service exports concentrate on a few sectors such as tourism and computer and grow slower than goods exports. Viet Nam’s service export strategy is an import substitution strategy rather than an export-growth strategy. In the long run, expectations for service exports are low given the limited competitiveness capability of potential export service sectors. Foreign investment in the Vietnamese service sector remains relatively low and this is contrasted to the trend of increased foreign investment in the service sector in the world. Moreover, the realized foreign investment is often far below the total amount committed. The 67 FDI flow may not be sustainable since it concentrates on the booming sectors of the economy such as real estates and hotels and restaurants. In this respect, the FDI sector has minor effect on the improvement of the competitive capability of the Vietnamese service sector and while Viet Nam wishes to diversify the investment capital, it is actually still relying heavily on the State budget. Finally, Vietnamese socialist-market oriented economy requires the service development strategy to take into account the needs of the low-income and most vulnerable segments of the population. In reality, there exists a huge accessibility gap among the regions and among the social strata to basic services such as healthcare, education, and basic public utilities. Constraint on the government resources in investment and consumption subsidies serves as a bottleneck in the improvement of the quality and delivery of public services and widens socio-economic gaps across the regions and social groups. Last but not least, there is an emerging concern on the environmental and sustainable dimensions in the development of the service sector. 68 CHAPTER 3: THE PREREQUISITES FOR STIMULATING THE SERVICES SECTOR GROWTH 3.1 Key dr iver s of gr owth and suppor ting infr astr uctur e for development of the ser vice sector in Viet Nam It has become a commonplace that the more developed an economy is, the higher the share of its service sector. However the positive association between the weight of the service sector in the economy and the level of development is not a mechanical one. In addition, growth and development economists do not fully agree on the exact nature of the positive correlation between the service sector share of output and per capita income. Traditional theories of economic development stressed the shift from agriculture to industry in the course of economic growth, while the shift away from manufacturing towards services has not received uniform explanation, but generally it was believed that the increasing share of services in GDP was due to lower services productivity and higher prices. After years of lengthy theoretical debates about the relative importance of manufacturing and services to economies, and the inter-relationship between the two, it is by now accepted as a fact that services have become a major driving force in economic growth, and rather than services following and supporting manufacturing, manufacturing is seen as flowing to those countries and areas where services infrastructure is efficient and well developed. Recent work by Eichengreen and Gupta (2009) has found that the relationship between service sector growth and economic development has significantly changed over time because of the application of new technologies, especially information and communications technologies (ICT), to the production of services. These technologies allowed services that once had to be produced and consumed locally to be sourced at long distances and traded across borders. 26 Analyzing how the relative size of the service sector evolves over the growth process, Eichengreen and Gupta (2009) have found that: First, there are two waves of service sector growth. The first service sector growth wave occurs at rather low per capita income: the share of service output already begins to rise at relatively modest incomes but at a decelerating rate as growth proceeds, until it levels out at roughly US $1800 per capita income (in year 2000 US purchasingpower-parity dollars). The second waive begins to rise at roughly US $4000 per capita income: the share of the service sector then begins to rise again, before eventually leveling off a second time. Putting these two waves in historical context, Eichengreen and Gupta (2009) also found that there was an upward shift in the second wave of service-sector growth after 1990. In order words, the second wave starts at lower levels of income after 1990 than before. As far as general conditions explaining country variations, it was found that the twowave pattern and especially the greater importance of the second wave in medium-to26 Barry Eichengreen and Poonam Gupta: “The Two Waves of Service Sector Growth”, NBER Working Paper No. 14968, May 2009 69 high-income countries is most evident in countries (1) which better enable the diffusion of information and communications technologies, (2) with economies having greater trade openness (both in general and in services in particular), and (3) that are close to major financial centers which have a comparative advantage in the provision of financial services. The increase in the service sector share at all levels of income but especially the second wave at higher income levels reflects increased scope for producing and exporting modern (financial, communications, computing, legal, technical and business) services in which medium-to high-income countries specialize. Eichengreen and Gupta (2009) conclude that the countries which satisfy the most the above three criteria are in the best position to capitalize on the opportunities afforded by ICT, competitive financial services and services export markets. The growth of the services sectors obviously is induced by growing demand for services. However, there are preconditions on both the demand and supply sides: for example, if potential consumers are not familiar with the benefits to be gained from purchasing high quality or cheaper business services, or are prevented to purchase such services from external sources because of governmental policies, demand will remain latent; on the supply side, potential constraints which may hinder the development of local capacities to satisfy demand are numerous and may include inadequate infrastructure, poor human resources, difficulties to obtain finance, etc. Box 4 Factors driving outsourcing One of the reasons why business services are growing rapidly relates to the increased outsourcing by firms of activities that they had previously conducted internally. Reasons for this growth include pressure on corporations to concentrate operations on core competencies, to reduce costs and to exploit external, specialized expertise more effectively. Cost and efficiency. Outsourcing firms that provide support services to other firms are often able to do so at lower cost while offering a wider choice of innovative products. This reflects the positive effects of competition – in-house firms are likely to be shielded from competition, a condition which lowers the pressures to be efficient and the incentives and need to innovate. Competence. The increasing sophistication of information, financial, computer, research and training needs by business and the rapid evolution of new techniques and products in these fields have made it difficult for firms to maintain competitive competence in these areas. Doing so would require the accumulation and maintenance of a knowledge base in diverse disciplines that in most instances firms would be hardpressed to justify. Specialization. The trend in industry in recent years has been towards consolidation and concentration on core competencies, a development which has provided new opportunities for independent suppliers of both goods and services. Source: OECD: The Service Economy, 2000 It is generally recognized that in market economies, the key driving force of service sector development and growth is the existence of a strong private sector, a genuine spirit of 70 entrepreneurship (of both firms and individuals) that permeates the whole economy, and a strong competitive environment for both manufacturing and service firms which compels them to constantly search for better productivity and competitiveness. 3.2 What Stimulates Gr owth in the Ser vice Economy? It logically follows that the primary tasks in order to promote services sector development are to remove structural impediments to competition – for example through privatization – and supply side constraints, and to create a business environment favourable to enhancing the performance of services providers. In Viet Nam, while the private sector has been progressively allowed to play an increasing role in the economy since the launch of the Doi Moi, the state sector still enjoys a dominant position in many services sectors which hinders the development and unfettered growth of services. In some sectors State-owned enterprises (SOEs) enjoy legal monopoly, in some others they are in a de facto monopoly or oligopoly situation. Table Number of acting enterprises as of 31 December by types of enterprise (in percentage of the total number of enterprise) 2000 2003 State owned enterprise 13,62 6,73 Central 4,89 2,64 Local 8,73 4,09 Non-state enterprise 82,77 89,60 Collective 7,65 5,76 Private 48,59 35,62 Collective name 0,01 0,02 Limited Co. 24,73 41,89 Joint stock Co. with State capital 0,72 0,93 Joint stock Co. without State capital 1,07 5,38 Foreign investment enterprise 3,61 3,67 100% foreign capital 2,02 2,60 Joint venture 1,59 1,07 Total 100,00 100,00 Source: GSO, Statistical Yearbook 2008 2004 5,01 2,14 2,87 91,55 5,83 32,67 0,02 44,59 0,89 7,54 3,44 2,55 0,89 100,00 2005 3,62 1,62 2,00 93,11 5,61 30,67 0,03 46,49 0,97 9,34 3,27 2,52 0,75 100,00 2006 2,82 1,33 1,49 93,97 4,74 28,42 0,02 48,48 1,04 11,27 3,21 2,54 0,67 100,00 2007 2,24 1,10 1,14 94,57 4,29 25,98 0,03 49,85 1,03 13,39 3,19 2,58 0,61 100,00 For example, in the banking sector, the number of financial institutions is much larger, nevertheless the market is still dominated by the four major and one minor State-owned commercial banks (SOCBs), and those joint stock banks (JSBs) and joint venture banks where SOCBs have a strategic position. (See Table …) 71 Table Banking Sector in Viet Nam (Percentage of banking sector markets) Source: Suiwah Leung: “Banking and Financial Sector Reforms in Viet Nam”, ASEAN Economic Bulletin Vol. 26, No. 1 (2009), pp. 44-57 In the fixed line telecommunication sector, PSTN-based telecommunication services remain under the monopoly control of state-owned operator VNPT. Where competition is allowed, i.e. in the fixed wireless services sector, VNPT’s main competitors are also state-owned: EVN Telecom, which is the telecoms arm of EVN (Electricity of Viet Nam), and Viettel, which is owned by the Army. In the mobile phone sector, where until mid-2003, the market was nominally a duopoly, both incumbent operators – MobiFone and VinaPhone – are indirect wholly owned subsidiaries of VNPT and have a 72% market share. Previously the telecom sector was partially opened to foreign companies, but primarily as suppliers of equipment and finance for constructing network infrastructure for operation by Vietnamese companies. (Relaxed market access limitations might be expected due to WTO accession commitments, which will bring in further competition. Another example is the insurance market, which also continues to be dominated by SOEs. The former state-owned monopoly Bao Viet remains by far the largest insurance company overall. PJICO, PVIC and PTI are also all owned by different state-owned enterprises. Finally, one should not forget that for many business services to develop, large state-owned manufacturing, infrastructure, mining and utility firms are the only potential clients. However, in Viet Nam major SOEs having a dominant position in these sectors tend to either produce business services in-house or purchase them from other State-owned firms leaving not much room for private sector competitors to grow and/or to acquire skills and competences. (Cavico Corp., which is the largest private infrastructure and mining company based in Viet Nam, may be an exception. However, it is a US-owned company and does not seem to have domestic competitor in SOE-dominated services markets.) However, in the absence of a vibrant domestic market with high level of competition, it is unlikely that internationally competitive and exportable services can be developed. The solution therefore seems to lie in the establishment of pro-competitive policies which should include but not limited to procompetitive equitization and privatisation policies since it would make little sense to transfer a monopoly right or a dominant market position from the State to the private sector. The main As shown in Chapter 2, in Viet Nam growth of many, but not all, services sectors depends much on factor endowment such as labor, capital, infrastructure, and natural resources. While 72 these are important constraints for major sectors, such as information and communication services, strategic business services, transportation, banking etc. that a comprehensive services sector development strategy indeed should address, there are many services, which are not regarded “strategic” but could easier contribute to job creation, reduce poverty, ensure fairer distribution of occupations across the country’s territory. These are local services provided to either private individuals or micro-enterprises which require little capital and which can be supplied by self-employed persons. In addition to the structural impediments to competition that SOEs create in some major sectors, another problem is that SOEs are sometimes used as by the government a direct regulatory tool, which further distorts the market in favour of the state sector. For example, although formally policy lending from SOCBs to SOEs has ceased, certain regulations (supposedly for prudential purposes) still mean that SOCBs continue to discriminate against borrowings by the private sector in favour of SOEs. SOCBs are allowed to provide unsecured lending to private enterprises, but only to firms with at least two consecutive years of profits. Therefore, unsecured lending is not available to start-up businesses. 27 Another problem with SOEs is the low progress in separating business administration from the state management functions. There are still many enterprises, general corporations under ministries, making obstacles to equalization of SOEs. 28 In view of the above, a priority objective is to remove impediments to the establishment of fully competitive markets and level playing fields resulting from excessive state ownership and pro-SOEs policy biases. In this regard, continued reform of the economy through the ongoing equitization and ownership transfer processes could also help raise incumbent firms efficiency which would also be required to maintain annual GDP growth at high level. 3.2.1 Developing Services that Are “Strategic” for Economic Development The choice of sectors, policy instruments and the adopted strategies to develop services considered “strategic” is highly contextual. During the last twenty to thirty years, various Governments have adopted fairly diverging policy approaches to services sector development. Section 2.8 of the previous Chapter discussed in the context of Viet Nam’s “services gaps” the need to take into account the strong inter-linkages between the productivity growth of the industrial and services sectors. This a powerful argument in favour of the adoption of an overall development strategy to ensure that both sectors grow side-by-side and are supportive to each other, rather than opting for selective, thus discriminatory sectoral development policies. Still, in the case of Viet Nam where significant gaps exist, there might be a need for some “prioritization” of services sectors in favour of those, which have significant multiplier and ‘breakthrough’ potential for the increase of competitiveness and overall economic development. There seems not be a contradiction between the need for an overall development policy and the selective sector prioritization as the sectors suggested to focus on on a priority basis – telecommunications/ICT, education and training, and business services – 27 Suiwah Leung: “Banking and Financial Sector Reforms in Vietnam”, ASEAN Economic Bulletin Vol. 26, No. 1 (2009) 28 MPI: “Mid-Term Review: Implementation of the Five-Year SEDP 2006-2010” 73 are more to be seen as basic enabling services for the whole economy than simply service sectors on their own. 3.2.2 Creating an Enabling Business Environment for the Service Sector in Viet Nam For a competitive and efficient services sector to develop, service providers, be they domestic or foreign, state-owned or privately owned, need a transparent, predictable and nondiscriminatory framework, and which puts the least hardship on enterprises. Allowing competition to grow in the services sectors is extremely important because it is a constantly growing competitive pressure which fosters the growth and new entry of firms that are particularly innovative and successful in meeting consumer demand. While increased competition is difficult to accept by non-competitive firms, from national point of view it is the whole economy which benefits if new and successful firms succeed and prosper, and if less successful firms decline or close down. Accepting this principle is nothing less than a mark of entrepreneurship It is therefore important that the business environment be geared towards the creation and prosperity of such innovative firms allowing high entry/exit rates and avoiding unnecessary obstacles to business operations. In the case of Viet Nam, improving the business environment for services is particularly important not because its poor regulatory performance – in fact the business environment has been unchanged for the last couple of years – but because the existence of a regulatory competition in which other countries are doing better. According to the World Bank’s “Doing Business” world rankings, while Viet Nam’s key indicators have not changed in absolute terms, its rank has deteriorated: it has ranked 87th in “Doing Business 2008”, 92nd one year later and 93rd in this year’s edition. Chart Doing Business 2010: Viet Nam Compared to Global Good Practice Economy As Well As Selected Economies World Bank and IFC: Doing Business 2010 – Viet Nam, 2009 74 A key element in improving the business environment is better regulation. Currently, in terms of “Starting a Business” and “Closing a Business” Viet Nam’s rank is respectively 116 (108 in 2009) and 127 (124 in 2009). According to the World Bank, starting a business in Viet Nam is comprised of 11 procedures and takes 50 days, while closing a business takes 5 years. Reform of regulatory structures, e.g. regulations on entry and on business operations, is the key to creating new opportunities in services sectors. The current reform process that many countries have embarked upon is driven by the recognition that certain regulations may no longer be needed, either because technological change has enabled competition in markets that were previously considered natural monopolies, or the given sector should be re-regulated e.g. because the liberalized market conditions direct the public policy’s focus on new elements, such as pro-competitive regulatory principles, environment protection, or consumer protection. 3.2.2.1 Legal framework for services The bulk of the legal acts currently relating to the business sector originates in the in the early 1990s when market-oriented reforms have been undertaken. The legal framework has been changing over time: Viet Nam rewrote almost all of its laws and regulations affecting commercial activities and judicial procedures between 2002 and 2008, to comply with the country’s BTA and WTO requirements as a result of which enormous improvements have been achieved in governance and the rule of law. Despite these externally led improvements, the overall legal system in Viet Nam is regarded as excessively cumbersome and which does not fully meet the requirements of a favourable business environment. In this regard it is worth quoting the qualification of Viet Nam’s legal framework by the Mid-Term Review - Implementation of the Five-Year SEDP 2006-2010 “The legal framework is not complete, of low quality, which is reflected in being not clear, not specific, not logic, not consistent, not transparent, not predictable, not effective and not efficient. The enforcement of low-quality legal regulations is very troublesome, costly, timeconsuming, and requires a lot of efforts, particularly with regard to investors and enterprises. On the other hand, low-quality legal regulations create favourable opportunities for rent seeking by incumbents, investors and entrepreneurs who abuse regulations to serve their interests and his/her related persons other than serving and protecting interest of the whole society” 29 Moreover, there are widespread concerns among businesses about the independence of the judiciary and its capacity to interpret and enforce the law. Therefore, it is not uncommon that local and foreign firms prefer to resort to arbitration or other non-judicial means rather than to resort to the judicial system. 30 One of the characteristics of the Vietnamese legal system is the excessive reliance on sectoral law-making and less on generic laws. There are construction laws, accounting laws, civil aviation laws, SBV laws, and the Maritime Code, to name a few. There are also government decrees for the implementation of these laws. The government or ministries can also issue Decisions to set out the strategy for a given sector. 31 This leads to a proliferation of laws even 29 MPI: “Mid-Term Review - Implementation of the Five-Year SEDP 2006-2010” Business Monitor International: “Vietnam Business Forecast Report, Q4 2009” 31 MPI and UNDP (2006) 30 75 in cases where a generic law would do the same effect. This is likely to be a legacy of the former command economy system, where each and every economic branch had “its” own ministry, but it is not certain that such degree of reliance on sectoral law-making is efficient in a market oriented economic system. (The major laws and other legal and administrative acts relating to services are listed and analyzed in detail in Chapter 7 of Part II.) A major issue in the legal system is that the practice of issuing lower-in-rank legal acts to implement or to guide the implementation of laws is sometimes used not to implement the law, but to “correct” the policy intentions embodied in the law. This is a serious question not simply because of the inevitable inconsistencies between the law and the “implementing” decree or guideline, but because this practice undermines the rule of law and creates uncertainties about real policy intentions. One of the consequences of the excessive sectoral approach is that the line ministries have the tendency to cover all possible service activities by a specific law, even though the existing generic laws would be sufficient to provide a codified framework for the relevant business. The policy environment for services in Viet Nam is still characterized by a fairly complex system of laws, ordinances, and by-law documents being prepared, issued or implemented by line ministries, agencies and provincial governments. Although the consultation process of legal drafting has recently been institutionalized, the preceding policy-formulation stage still suffers from a lack of transparency (see in detail in Chapter 6), which causes conflicting legal provisions in Viet Nam’s legal system. A related issue is that sometimes, legal acts do not contain any information about the policy intention and/or the rationale behind their provisions. A recent example is “Decision No. 961/QD-TTg of July 3, 2009, promulgating the Government’s program of action for service development during 2009-2011” which does not provide explanation as to why the various actions mandated by its 15-page-long appendix are needed. A communication gap also seems to exist between the law-making central bodies and the implementing agencies. Provincial authorities sometimes “resist” the legal changes and continue acting along the line of outdated laws. For example, it was reported to the VBF that local authorities across the country failed to implement new legal provisions, which allowed 49% foreign ownership in local companies in accordance with Viet Nam’s GATS commitments and continued restricting foreign participation at the level of 30%. Provincial authorities applied the same limitation vis-à-vis real estate businesses, even though the relevant sectoral law and the Investment Law did not restrict foreign ownership in real estate companies. 32 The opposite situation, i.e. when local authorities do not use the power conferred to them by law but prefer to seek administrative guidance from the ministries for each individual implementing action. This leads to non-observance of prescribed deadlines and also to inconsistent implementation of laws and regulations across the country. 3.2.2.2 Service Sector Regulations 32 Mid-term Vietnam Business Forum, June 2008 76 Effective and well-balanced regulations are key to promoting competition in services markets and an effective competition is crucial or services productivity growth. It is widely recognized that “domestic” regulations 33, i.e. the regulatory requirements and restrictions imposed on services and services providers can also act to limit growth and competition in services. These regulations have traditionally been used to address market failures, such as externalities related to investment in networks or infrastructure, or asymmetric information between services producers and consumers. In Viet Nam, the regulatory framework (including the regulations themselves, the regulatory tools, processes and procedures, as well as the regulatory bodies) is largely the legacy of the command economy and is ill-adapted to the requirements of a market economy. There has not been a holistic framework for coverage of services sector regulations covering the issues commonly addressed in more developed service economies. Recent attention to services sector regulation has resulted largely from requirements of international treaties on trade in services, such as the BTA and the GATS and the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services. One of the major consequences of the WTO obligations is that Viet Nam’s regulations must be transparent, made known to the public, regulations must be fair and impartial and based on objective criteria and least trade restrictive. A related issue is that regulators should be independent. Another requirement is that regulatiry decision should be challengeable. As far as licensing is concerned, a particular Vietnamese obligations is that licensing procedures, where they are applied, can not in themselves constitute a market access restriction. Investment and business licenses remain the most important regulatory tools employed in Viet Nam. While tremendous efforts have been made during the past two years to make domestic regulations more consistent with its WTO obligations, large room for discretionary decisions seems to persist in the licensing system. For example, the State Bank of Viet Nam subjects some activities (bond trading) by foreign banks that cannot be restricted under Viet Nam’s BTA and WTO obligations to specific approvals. A related issue is that in Viet Nam each activity of a business should be clearly covered by the license. If a foreign enterprise would like to expand the scope of its activities the business license should be amended no matter if the new activities are presumed to be liberalized according to international treaties or by virtue of Viet Nam’s law. The business approval processes are excessively laborious. Investor obligations to approach multiple government agencies in a given sequence is unduly time consuming. Paperwork for foreign invested and local business establishments in “conditional” areas are beyond excessive and subject to an opaque approval process. 34 The excessive reliance on licenses as regulatory tools probably stems from the old system where a business activity was legal if it was positively allowed. The persistence of this practice raises questions beyond the WTO: a more favourable business environment could be created in Viet Nam if the number of ex-ante authorization and licensing procedures were reduced and replaced by ex-post verifications of firms. 33 They are referred to as “domestic” because these regulations are also the most important barriers to trade in services, which – in contrast to trade in goods – are not applied “at the border” but “behind the border”. 34 Vietnam Business Forum June 2009 77 One of the sectoral regulatory tools used in Viet Nam is master planning. Sectoral master plans are being drafted for 5-10 years for steel, automobiles, motorcycles, electronics, textile and garment, etc. – and in the service sector for example for distribution services. The MPI’s Mid-term Review Report of the Implementation of the SEDP 2006-2010 has strongly criticized the results achieved through master plans: “Quality of master planning work in Viet Nam remains low, with lack of a long-term vision, and insufficient economic, social and environmental underlie.” However, one might consider whether master planning, which as a planning technique was developed in the beginning of the twentieth century, is suitable for today’s realities. Indeed master planning does not seem to be able to adapt to rapid changes in factors such as time, demand, technological changes etc. In addition, in Viet Nam private stakeholders and civil society is not associated with master planning, which remains a pure administrative task. The authors of this report concur with the MPI and UNDP (2006) in that one of the most fundamental issues for Viet Nam is to clarify the objectives it wishes to achieve through domestic regulation. It would be of the highest importance for both efficient regulations and businesses that as part of the CSSSD a comprehensive review of the whole regulatory framework be undertaken during the next one to two years. Indeed, promoting the development and growth of services should start by removing the obstacles to this process. It is now widely recognized that reforming the regulatory framework, e.g. regulations on entry and operations, is the key to boost innovation and creating new opportunities in the services sectors. Reforming regulations is also key to reducing business costs and improve competitiveness. OECD countries regulatory reform processes have been also driven by the recognition that certain regulations may are longer be needed, e.g. because technological changes has enabled competition in markets that were previously considered natural monopolies, and failing to adapt regulations to such changes would reduce competitiveness of the economy as a whole. 3.2.3 Innovation in Services Innovation is one of the main drivers of productivity growth in services. However, innovation policies remain ill adapted even in OECD countries to the growing importance of innovation in services, and to the new potential for product and process innovation that is due to information and communications technology (ICT). Recent successes of some service sector reforming countries (e.g. Korea and India) have however demonstrated that an innovation policy adapted to the concrete situation of a country can be a powerful tool to boost productivity for the economy as a whole, not just a narrow service sector. Innovation in knowledge-based economies increasingly depends on the combination of entrepreneurship, ICT, innovation and human capital. In order to develop a well adapted innovation policy, policy makers should consider how existing public R&D can better address the needs of the services sector and improve the links between services sector firms and public research. In modifying policies related to intellectual property in services, there is a need to strike a careful balance between innovation and the diffusion of service innovations to other industries. 78 In the case of Viet Nam, the best strategy seems to link innovation related activities in services to manufacturing industries, which use the most local R&D. This would include the development of industry/service clusters for example clustering ICT goods manufacture and ICT services. However, one must be aware that while innovation in services is of utmost importance for Viet Nam, given the present level of economic development and current state of the services sector, it would be illusory to expect that innovation would result in new services or technologies. Rather the ambition should be to develop R&D capacities with the objective of increase adapting existing services or technologies to local conditions and absorption capacities. In Viet Nam an innovation policy for the whole economy has yet to emerge as what is present seems to have focused so far primarily on the manufacturing sector and agriculture. Public R&D should more explicitly address services sector needs. One of the reasons why innovation policy for services has not yet emerged so far may relate to the overwhelming share of SOEs in interested services sectors. Intellectual property rights are of limited but growing importance to innovation in services – especially in knowledge intensive business services like software, computing, R&D services and communications, precisely where Viet Nam would like to develop competitive advantages. Unfortunately protection of IPRs is at present not among the most popular business tools in Viet Nam. While it is a fact that the role of R&D in Viet Nam’s economic output is very low, just 0,6% of GDP (0,2% according to ), this figure only reinforces the argument in favour of an innovation policy, which builds upon interlinkages between innovation services and prioritized sector within Viet Nam’s industrial policy. 3.2.4 Human Resource Development Since most services involve direct contact with customers, human resources are key to services sector performance. Education policies, and particularly public education, are important to help workers adjust to globalization and structural change and should help provide the qualifications that are needed in services. In Viet Nam, with an ever-expanding private sector since the launch of Doi Moi, the demand for educated workers has risen, especially the demand for human resources with high technical capability and new management skills. One of the recurring themes throughout the preparation of the present study was that the weakest point in Viet Nam in developing efficient services is the lack of appropriate education, knowledge of foreign languages and professional skills. Table 1 in Chapter 4 shows the specific development needs in terms of education and training of the various development stages of the Vietnamese economy. The authors of this report believe that the education system of Viet Nam, which has one of the best bases among developing and transition economies, should be further improved with more 79 emphasis on equity issues, in particular giving equality of chances among people of various social and geographical origin. Of critical importance is the radical improvement of the university sector, which currently does not meet the standards of the internationally most competitive universities. While improving the public education system is very important, one should not expect dramatically improved impacts on the services sector in the short run. This par excellence public service sector does not seem to attract the policy attention it deserves. Investment by the State in education and training is very modest compared to some industrial sectors, which should meet their financing needs from the market sources. Education and training received only 5,4% of all State investment during the period 2005-2007, while typically non-public sector activities such as manufacturing received 9,8-10,3%, construction 4,6-4,8%, and transport, storage and communications around 22%. In this present situation increasing the share of education and training in the State budget is an urgent task, but should be coupled with deep educational reforms. Indeed, more budget resources alone are unlikely to radically raise the quality of the services outputs of the public education system; without reforms, more money would simply result in more, but not better quality outputs. Since Doi Moi, Viet Nam has already introduced reform measures in the education sector, and among others, a private higher education has already emerged while foreign private universities also entered the education market. The reforms of the past ten years resulted in a quantitatively expanded size of the higher education system. In terms of quality, however, the higher education system still faces tremendous weaknesses and problems that are unlikely to be overcome without further reforms. Table Statistical profile of the professoriate in Vietnamese higher education Statistical indicator Profile Total number of academic employees 39.985 Number of teaching staff 32,205 (80.5%) Percent of faculty who are women 36,2% Percent of faculty who are full or associate professors 5,1% Percent of faculty with doctorates 17,8% Percent of faculty with master’s degrees 41,6% Percent of faculty with bachelor’s degrees 40,6% Source: Gerald W. Frye: “Higher Education in Viet Nam”, in Yasushi Hirosato and Yuto Kitamura (Editors): “The Political Economy of Educational Reforms and Capacity Development in Southeast Asia”, Springer, 2009 One of the main issues is the low quality and inadequate numbers of qualified professors. The most common academic background of a university professor is holding only a master’s or bachelor’s degree (see Table above). Its professorate is also aging: 80% of full professors and 30% of associate professors are over the age of 60. Currently, the country produces only 500 new Ph.D graduates per year. The Government’s goal is to have 20.000 doctorates by the year 2020, half of whom would be trained outside Viet Nam. Fellowships for foreign studies are 80 limited. The following governments offer fellowships to Vietnamese, with the statistic in parentheses indicating the number of fellowships available: Canada (10), UK (70), France (200), Australia (150), USA (75, Fulbright and Viet Nam Education Foundation), and Thailand (80). 35 Table Basic Indicators on education and human resource development in Viet Nam Note: Expenditures on R&D as a percent of GDP is 0,6% according to MPI: “Mid-Term Review - Implementation of the Five-Year SEDP 2006-2010” Source: Gerald W. Frye: “Higher Education in Viet Nam”, in Yasushi Hirosato and Yuto Kitamura (Editors): “The Political Economy of Educational Reforms and Capacity Development in Southeast Asia”, Springer, 2009 Equity of access is also an issue in the present education system. Current demand for higher education greatly exceeds the number of university seats available. In 2005, over 1,5 million students sat for the national university entrance examination, but all higher education institutions could admit only about 230.500 students. In addition, those in the richer southern zone of the country have much greater access to private universities. There is, for example, only one private university in the poorer central zone. Thus, in remote mountainous areas, particularly ethnic nationalities, having much less access to secondary education and quality secondary education are seriously disadvantaged in terms of opportunities for higher education. About 40% of Viet Nam’s college students are from the richest 20%. The lowest 20% economically account for only 12% of those in college. While inequalities have 35 Frye (2009) 81 increased in recent years, the level of Viet Nam’s inequality both as a nation as a whole and in the higher education sector is low compared to many other developing countries. 36 Better results can be achieved in the short to medium run from twinning universities (and sometimes high-schools) with private firms (e.g. in the framework of partnerships and/or cofinancing agreements) with clearly set performance requirements imposed on educational institutions. Supplemented actions to foster life-long learning is equally important as a vibrant services sector needs constant adaptation. Finally, the most immediately available tool to raise the skill of services people is the presence of foreign directed enterprises. FDI therefore should also be encouraged especially in those areas where foreign firsm can be expected to train locally hired people and provide them with promotion opportunities. 3.3 For eign and Domestic Competition in Ser vices Higher than average service prices, coupled with below average service quality, clearly is one of the main causes of low level of competitiveness of Viet Nam. Creating a fierce competition is clearly a prerequisite for enhancing quality and choice of services in Viet Nam. Opening up the domestic services markets to international trade and “investment trade” (i.e. FDI) in services would significantly remedy this poor situation as it would exercise competitive pressure on incumbent firms currently shielded against free competition. Market openness is important for increasing innovation and productivity in services and investment. It opens new markets for services and exposes domestic firms to greater levels of competition. In the absence of international competition, some sectors and the firms within them remain sheltered from market pressures and have little incentive to innovate. This can lead to lower than optimal levels of productivity, higher costs and prices, a misallocation of resources and less investment in innovation. Opening up domestic service markets to trade and FDI provides more competition, bring new services to the market and create new possibilities for domestic providers through export. Foreign affiliates have a positive impact on the performance of the domestic economy, mainly by increasing a country’s investment opportunities and driving research and development (R&D) and productivity. The success of certain well-known services firms demonstrate that opening up investment market to foreign firms is crucial to the development of internationally competitive services. For example in Europe many of the most successful airline companies (e.g. Wizzair and EasyJet) in recent years would not have existed if formal FDI barriers to airline markets had not been removed. In certain other cases, e.g. Carrefour, the threat of foreign competition and the ability to expand in international markets thanks to open borders acted as a powerful incentive to grow, expand internationally and raise productivity. 37 36 Frye (2009) 37 OECD: “Growth in Services. Fostering Employment, Productivity and Innovation”, 2005 82 In Viet Nam, increased competition – from whatever sources – would be a crucial element of the CSSSD. Indeed, in the present conditions when the most important sectors are characterized by SOEs’ monopoly positions, the absence of competition from private enterprise does not allow incite incumbent firms to invest in research and development, to improve the quality of services they provide, or to increase business efficiency. In theory, a strong application of the recently adopted Competition Law to SOEs – where SOEs do not enjoy legal monopoly rights – could also be envisaged, but in economic terms this would not produce enough competitive pressure. The example of sectors, such as telecommunications, where competition has emerged between SOEs, demonstrate that the competition had its effect only on prices, but not on better quality services or new service products. Increased competition and quality of services will help reduce the cost of doing business throughout the economy. One example of interlinkages is the multiplier effects of lowering logistics cost and improve the quality of service of the logistics industry in Viet Nam. Doing so would eventually contribute to strengthening the competitiveness of Vietnamese export products, which in turn would provide producers of exporting raw materials (e.g. farmers and fishermen) with better and less expensive access to overseas markets. Increased access to export markets would return a higher margin to the producers and contribute poverty alleviation especially in rural areas, which have formerly been disadvantaged by poor logistics service. 83 CHAPTER 4: THE STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT OF COMPETITIVENESS WITHIN THE SERVICES SECTOR - COMPETITIVENESS AND EFFECTIVENESS OF SERVICES IN VIET NAM 4.1 Intr oduction 4.1.1 Services and economic development The supply of services is related to different factors, including so-called comparative advantages, the dynamic of manufacturing and levels of development. Considering recent studies, experts propose a sequence relating the supply of services to different stages of development that, overall, corresponds to what is reported in Table 1-1. Table 1-1: Stages of development and services Stage de Corresponding development major services Creation of a Basic utilities social and (energy, safe water) economic base and construction Required professional skills Mainly low skills plus specific skills Implication for education and training Mainly basic education plus secondary schools and specific training Building up of Transportation and Low skills plus Basic, intermediate economic telecommunication intermediate and and higher education infrastructures high skills plus specific training Take-off of a Financial and Predominantly All levels of education performing business services intermediate and do matter, intensive and selfhigh skills training becomes quite sustained essential, on the job private and specialized economy institutions Source: Ministry of Planning and Investment (2005). The implications of table 1-1 are manifold: • • • There might be a need to better assess priorities for investments especially when there are limited public resources to support the development of services; Education and training are major and permanent pillars of economic development and must receive high attentions at all levels of development; The successful development of an efficient private sector requires well-developed financial and business services. Financial services are essential for the full mobilization of private savings (what is labelled “financial deepening’ by development economists) and their most efficient allocation among competitive uses; so-called business services such as, for instance, accounting and auditing, are also important for effective and better management and the successful development of private and public enterprises. 84 In addition, there must be a clear understanding of the role of the State when moving from a what was a centrally planned (or command) economy, characterized inter alia by the absence of market mechanisms, to a market-oriented economy or, in the Vietnamese context, a socalled socialist-market oriented economy in which prices are key-signals for both the supply and demand of factors of production, goods and services. Thus, the role of the state should concentrate more on strengthening a business-conducive environment – with adequate and transparent legislation and its full and fair enforcement, which also requires addressing corruption and improving governance at all levels (central, regional, local) of the administration; and imposing predictable and stabilizing macro-policies – than on direct involvements in business-like activities for which the profit-oriented private entrepreneurs can perform quite effectively when responding to needs and demands. 4.1.2 The service economy in Viet Nam According to World Bank figures (see the website “‘countries’ at a glance”), services contributed to about 38% of GDP in 2007, which is comparable to figures that are reported for Indonesia and China (Table 1-2; Box 5 discusses data accuracy) and lower than the corresponding shares in the Philippines and Thailand. Considering the share of services in GDP, when comparing countries that have similar levels of development, there seems to be no specific norm – nevertheless, in the long run, the share of services should grow with incomes, which, a priori, does not imply that dispersion across countries have to narrow overtime. In fact, the development potentials are quite strong for both services and industry (that includes manufacturing) whereas the share of agriculture in GDP – which the highest for Viet Nam in the group of countries reported in Table 1-2 – should be expected to decline overtime. In addition, there are obvious inter-linkages between services and industry, which implies that these sectors should grow side-by-side. Table 1-2 GDP structure – selected countries (2007) Countries Agriculture Industry Viet Nam 20 42 China 11 49 Indonesia 14 47 Philippines 14 32 Thailand 11 44 Source: The World Bank website 85 Services 38 40 39 54 45 Box 5: national accounting and the parallel economy Most often, available statistical data cover mainly legal economic activities. In developing countries, the practice of national accounting may encounter difficulties for various reasons, including the lack of sufficient resources and adequate expertise in the administration. In many developing countries, the so-called parallel economy may reach high level, sometimes above 50% GDP. In the case of Viet Nam, there are several estimates of the importance of parallel economic activities; some figures reach 70% for specific activities such as, for instance, retail trade, which underlines the limitation of available statistics and international comparisons. It should be noted that the existence of parallel economic activities contributes to the emergence and the strengthening of the private sector, which allows the meet private and social needs. In the long run, the share in GDP of the informal sector should be expected to decline with the modernization of state administration and the need for a more stable and legal business environment. 4.2 The scope of this study Relying on domestic and international statistics, section 2 proposes a quantitative analysis of competitiveness of the services sector in Viet Nam. Referring to the so-called (and rather controversial) World Competitiveness Index and four SWOT analyses, section 3 includes a qualitative analysis of competitiveness of services, from both international and domestic perspectives. Section 4 considers services effectiveness. The focus is on social and environmental dimensions of services, which compliment previous sections. In a last section, policy recommendations are proposed to improve the development of services in Viet Nam. 4.3 Competitiveness analysis (I): quantitative analysis 4.3.1 The meaning of competitiveness Like efficiency, competitiveness is a complex concept. Broadly speaking, competitiveness is the ability of a firm (the micro-level), a sector (meso-level) or a nation (macro-level) to offer products and services that meet quality standards of local and world markets at prices that are competitive and provide adequate returns on the resources that are employed or consumed on producing them (see the website BusinessDictionary.com). S. Garelli, Professor at the International Institute for Management Development (IMD, Switzerland) and Director of the Word Competitiveness Report Project 2002 proposes another definition of competitiveness that is based on the OECD; thus, competitiveness is “the degree to which a country can, under free and fair competition, produce goods and services which 86 meet the test of international markets, while simultaneously maintaining and expanding the real incomes of its people over the long term”. 38 These definitions combine supply and demand sides, domestic and international dimensions, short-term and long-term perspectives. However, they are definitely not self-contained. Some terms would require additional definitions and/or explanations for the sake of complete clarification, assuming that is possible; this is certainly true for “quality standards”, “adequate returns”, “free and fair competition”, etc. Garelli does not refer at all to domestic markets that do matter for key-services related, for instance, to education and health; in addition, he does not distinguish micro and macro levels. De facto, it seems difficult to build a consensus on the final meaning of these terms. In addition to the lack of consensus, there are measurement and judgmental problems – for instance, how does one assess the degree of freedom and fairness of markets in the real world? Taking into account the above-mentioned remarks, the proposed quantitative analysis of the competitiveness of services supplied by Vietnamese enterprises relies on a set of indicators combining domestic and international data sources. The resulting picture is a complex one which may help: (a) Isolate some key-factors and important dimensions that do matter to assess the degree or level of competitiveness of Vietnamese services and (b) Propose practical/relevant policy recommendations. 4.3.2 Viet Nam GDP growth and structure in perspective (international comparison) GDP growth performances GDP and sectors growth rates for Viet Nam and different groups of countries are reported in Table 2-1. Overall, for the two reference periods, 1990-2000 and 2000-2007, Viet Nam GDP growth performances are higher than what is observed for the three income levels groups of countries that are distinguished. However, Viet Nam falls somehow below the East Asia & Pacific region – the gap between that group of countries and Viet Nam even doubled between the two periods, from 0.6% (8.8% minus 7.9%) to 1.2% (9% minus 7.8%). The growing growth gap between Viet Nam and East Asia & Pacific reflects the growing gap that is also observed for services, which grew from 0.5 percent to 1.9. Further investigation into greater details of the evolution of services in Viet Nam and neighbouring countries would be required to be more conclusive and draw more specific policy recommendations. However, one must bear in mind that Viet Nam does better than the middle-income countries (even if the gap is narrowing overtime!). In addition, as already mentioned, there might be statistical problems that limit the scope and the relevance of international comparisons. 38 http://members.shaw.ca/compilerpress1/Anno%20Garelli%20CN%20Fundamentals.htm 87 Table 2-1: Real gross domestic product and sectors annual growth rates (%) Countries/ GDP Agriculture Industry Services Group of 1990- 2000- 1990- 2000- 1990- 2000- 1990- 2000countries 2000 2007 2000 2007 2000 2007 2000 2007 Viet Nam 7.9 7.8 4.3 3.8 11.9 10.3 7.5 7.4 Low income 3.4 5.6 3.3 3.5 4.5 7.3 3.6 5.8 countries Middle income 3.9 6.2 2.3 3.6 4.7 7.1 4.3 6.2 countries East Asia & 8.5 9.0 3.5 4.0 11.0 10.1 8.0 9.3 Pacific High income 2.7 2.4 1.3 0.7 1.9 1.7 2.9 2.5 countries World 2.9 3.2 2.0 2.5 2.4 3.0 3.1 3.0 Source: The World Bank (2009). GDP structure Table 2-2 Gross domestic product structure (%) Countries/ Agriculture Industry Group of 1995 2007 1995 2007 countries Viet Nam 27 20 29 42 Low income 32 25 23 30 countries Middle income 13 9 35 37 countries East Asia & 19 12 44 47 Pacific High income 2 1 30 26 countries World 4 3 30 29 Source: The World Bank (2009). Services 1995 2007 44 45 38 46 52 53 36 41 68 72 65 69 The share of services in world GDP grew from 65% to 69% between 1995 and 2007. Considering low, middle and high income levels regions, the services share in GDP is the highest (and grew also most significantly) in the richest countries, from 68% to 72%. These figures show that, on average, there is a rather positive relationship between the share of services in GDP and levels of incomes. In addition, the richest countries might benefit from comparative advantages that could be related to their level of development, which may render more difficult the development of services in low and middle-income countries. 4.3.3 Productivity in Viet Nam services 88 Aggregate figures Productivity and products quality are essential determinants of competitiveness. Most often, high productivity levels should correspond to competitive prices and allow increasing market shares on world markets. It also increases the purchasing power of domestic populations, with lower prices and higher incomes. As indicated in table 2-3, the sectors distribution of employed labour shows the importance of employment in agriculture in Viet Nam, which is quite higher than in the other four reference countries. One fourth of the Vietnamese labour force is also employed in services, which is lower than what is observed in the other countries. Considering productivity, one striking feature is the very low labour productivity in Viet Nam, in all sectors; labour productivity is also the lowest in agriculture and the highest in industry – a common feature of all reference countries. Subsequently, labour mobility from agriculture to industry and services could definitely boost Viet Nam GDP growth. It is striking that labour productivity is definitely much higher in industry than in services in all reference countries, and in Viet Nam too. Such a common characteristic indicates that services should perhaps not be prioritized relative to industry and should instead develop sideby-side with. Table 2-3: Labour productivity – international comparison (2007) Viet Nam China Indonesia Thailand Labour force employed (millions workers) and sectors distribution of the (millions and %) Total 43.5 100 754.2 100 110.4 100 36.1 100 employed labour force Agricultural 25.2 58 324.3 43 41.2 41 15.3 43 labour Philippines labour force 34.6 100 12.7 37 Industrial 7.7 18 188.5 25 18.9 18.8 7.4 20 5.2 15 labour Service 10.6 24 241.3 32 40.3 40.2 13.3 37 16.7 48 labour Production (million USD) and labour average productivity (USD and level in %) Total GDP 68643 3205507 432817 245351 144062 GDP per 1579 100 4249 100 4308 100 6785 100 4164 100 worker Agricultural 545 34 1087 26 1471 34 1762 26 1588 38 output p. w. Industrial 3758 237 8329 196 10756 249 14497 213 8836 212 output p. w. Services 2457 155 5312 125 4183 97 8242 121 4663 111 output p. w. Source: World Bank (2009) and own calculations. 89 Main services Table 2-4 presents the evolution of the main services in Viet Nam, as reported by the General Statistical Office, from 2005 till 2007. In 2007, in terms of turnover, the main service sector was wholesale and retail trade with almost the two thirds of the total services turnover; it is followed by transport, storage and communication, construction and financial intermediation. It should be noted that trade turnover does include the values of commodities supplied by other sectors, in particular industry. Thus, reliable data on value-added would be needed to be more conclusive about the relative importance of the service sectors. Considering growth, the most dynamic sectors were education (with 142.7% growth over the reference period), electricity, gas and water, and hotel and restaurant. Overall, the reference services turnover grew by 67.7%, which corresponds to an equivalent and impressive annual growth rate of 29.5%; such a change is remarkable and it does not seem properly captured by aggregate data reported by other sources, including the World Bank. Table 2-4: The dynamic of service sectors Total turnover (Billion VND) Sectors 2005 2007 Electricity, gas and Water 42135 73063 Construction 130935 207983 Trade 818676 1380793 Hotel and restaurant 17053 29492 Transport, storage, communication 125618 215380 Financial intermediation 126528 203509 Science & technology 442 419 Real estate, renting, Business 37998 68617 activities Education 868 2107 Health and social work 1108 1779 Culture and sport 2072 3097 TOTAL 1303433 2186239 Source: General Statistical Office (2009) and own-calculations. Share % Growth % 2007 2007/2005 3.3 9.5 63.1 1.3 9.8 9.3 0.02 73.4 58.8 68.6 72.9 71.4 60.8 -5.2 3.2 0.09 0.08 0.14 100.0 80.5 142.7 60.5 49.4 67.7 Two key-sectors (“Transport” and “business services”) Additional information is provided in Table 2-5 on two sectors seen as high priorities by the Vietnamese Authorities, namely: transport (that is reported as a single sector together with storage and communication) and business activities (aggregated with real estate and renting). Considering transport, the number of private domestic and foreign firms grew by 48% and 31% respectively between 2005 and 2007. Turnover and profit growth is also quite impressive. Labor productivity growth (for which turnover per employee is used a proxy) is 90 also significant for domestic public and private enterprises and somehow disappointing for foreign companies (see FDI in the table), with a decline of 17%. An interesting feature of reported data is the seemingly high taxation rates, with rather big differences between the three categories of companies – public, domestic private and foreign ones. Overall, public enterprises seem to be as dynamic as private ones. Moreover, turnover per employee (or “labor productivity”) is the highest in foreign companies (more than three times higher than domestic private ones), which underlines the importance of creating a business conducive environment for attracting more FDIs – possibly with the revision of taxation. To be more conclusive, additional information is required about taxation, with a clear distinction between direct and indirect (VAT-like and/or turnover) taxes. More information is also needed on competition conditions because, for some service sectors, state-owned companies could act as quasi-monopolies (with, in addition, soft-budget constraint) and corresponding markets might not be characterized by free and fair competition (see Annex 1 for “details” on the analysis of competition conditions). Table 2-5: Basic statistics on two key-service sectors (2005 and 2007) Indicators Transport, storage and Real estate, renting and Communication business State Private FDI State Private FDI Number of 2005 262 6378 114 232 7990 452 Firms 2007 257 9451 150 232 14357 630 Change -1.90 48.18 31.57 0 79.68 39.38 % Number of 2005 239501 179802 11758 49061 128642 18635 Employees 2007 234734 230112 16669 43697 212228 24708 Change -1.99 27.98 41.76 -10.93 64.97 32.58 % Fixed assets and 2005 76004 15784 3311 8238 16357 20558 long-term 2007 125912 34526 4160 11293 67788 20755 investment Change 65.66 118.74 25.64 37.08 314.42 0.958 (billion VND) % Net turnover 2005 84806 30656 10156 9909 15393 12696 (billion VND) 2007 145677 57793 11910 10297 38893 19427 Change 71.77 88.52 17.27 3.91 152.66 53.01 % Gross profit 2005 15819 554 798 1167 220 2626 (billion VND) 2007 25377 1350 1513 1489 4118 4348 Change 60.42 143.68 89.59 27.59 1771.81 65.57 % Taxes and fees 2005 8247 842 930 1295 697 2526 (billion VND) 2007 12221 1299 763 1438 2470 1406 Change 48.18 54.27 -17.95 11.04 254.37 -44.33 % Key financial indicators and ratios (million VND or %) Fixed assets per employee 536.402 150.039 249.565 258.438 319.411 840.011 91 Turnover per employee 620.604 251.151 714.499 235.645 183.260 Profit asset ratio 20.15 3.91 36.37 13.18 6.07 Profit turnover ratio 17.42 2.33 12.70 14.46 10.58 Tax turnover ratio 8.38 2.24 6.40 13.96 6.35 Tax profit ratio 48.1 96.22 50.42 96.57 59.98 Productivity growth (20052007) 75.26 47.30 -17.27 16.67 53.15 Source: General Statistical Office (2009). Notes: The calculation of productivity growth is based on turnover per employee. 786.263 20.94 22.38 7.23 32.33 15.40 4.3.4 Revealed comparative advantages The main services exported by Viet Nam are reported in Table 2-6. Tourism represents more than 55% of total exports in 2008 and that share also grew between 2005 and 2008. Other important services are air transport and shipping. Air transport is partly related to tourism. Table 2-6: The dynamic of Viet Nam exports of services (2005-2006) Service 2005 2008 (Estimates) categories Value mil. Share Value mil. Share USD % USD % Total exports 4265 100 7096 100 Tourism 2300 53.9 4020 56.6 Air transport 657 15.4 1322 18.6 Shipping 510 11.9 1034 14.5 Source: General statistical office (2009) and own calculations. Index 2005=100 166.3 174.7 201.2 202.7 The so-called Balassa’s revealed comparative advantages (BRCA) are provided in Table 2-7 (see also Box 6). Viet Nam has a strong revealed comparative advantage in tourism/travel (and, to a much lesser extent, transport). Despite statistical problems, these outcomes could help policy makers make optimal choices when selecting services for their development support, in addition to allow free market forces play their role. Table 2-7: Viet Nam revealed comparative advantages in services (2007) Viet Nam World BRCA Service categories Value (mil. USD) Share (%) Share (%) ShV/ShW Total 6460 100 100 1 Tourism/travel 3750 58.1 25.7 2.26 Transport 1879 29.1 28.4 1.02 Insurance & Finance 397 6.1 9.7 0.62 Computer, telecoms... 434 6.7 36.3 0.18 Source: World Bank (2009), General Statistical Office (2009) and own-calculations. Note: BRCA= Balassa’s Revealed Comparative Advantage. Box 6: Balassa’s Revealed Comparative Advantage 92 The Revealed comparative advantage is a measure widely used in international economics to calculate the relative advantage or disadvantage of a certain country in a certain class of goods or services as evidenced by trade flows. It was first proposed by (the Hungarian-born US economist) Béla Balassa in 1965. Thus, RCA = (Eij/ Eit)/(Enj/Ent), with: E = exports, I = country index, j = commodity index, n = set of countries and t = set of commodities. In other words, a country X is said to have a comparative advantage in a commodity Y and vis-à-vis a set of reference countries (which could be the rest of the world) when the share of Y in the exports of X is larger than the corresponding share on the exports of the reference countries. Other CA definitions were also developed. It should be noted that the BRCA index is more about the product-concentration of exports than comparative advantage per se. 4.4 Contr ibution of ser vices to GDP gr owth The contribution of services to GDP growth can change overtime. According to IMF calculations of the sectors contributions to GDP growth (see Figure 2-1), services may become relatively more important in recent years, especially when manufactures seem to be more affected by the evolution of global economic conditions. Figure 2-1: Source: IMF (2009). 4.5 Competitiveness analysis (II): qualitative analysis 4.5.1 Competitiveness in the global economy Considering the “Global Competitiveness Index” (GCI) proposed by the World Economic Forum, Viet Nam reaches a score of 4.10 in 2008-2009 (with a corresponding rank equals to 93 70, just after oil-rich Azerbaijan), slightly above the Philippines and significantly below two key-neighbours, namely China and Thailand. Table 3-1: Global competitiveness index 2008-2009 Countries Rank China 30 Thailand 34 Indonesia 55 Viet Nam 70 Philippines 71 Source: World Economic Forum. Score 4.70 4.60 4.25 4.10 4.09 Box 7: Questioning the GCI The calculation of the GCI combines various factors, including legislation and governance. Despite the wide range of factors taken into account by the GCI, the index does not seem to correlate strongly with long-term GDP growth rates, namely the indicator or keyvariable which may definitely matter for the well-being of a country and its population and does reflect productivity and international competitiveness. In 2008, the US and Switzerland occupy top GCI positions; for decades, these two countries economies grew much slower than the Chinese one. In addition, it is commonly admitted that US external deficits are largely financed by Chinese current account surpluses. In other words, there could be systematic biases or conceptualization problems in the formulation and calculation of the GCI; its values seem to have very little relationship with actual competitiveness and observed (or revealed) economic performances. 4.5.2 SWOT analysis: all sectors Strengths and weaknesses of Viet Nam’ services sector Strengths (i) The government of Viet Nam is committed to support the development of services and international economic integration, at regional and global levels. (ii) There is a growing understanding of the potential benefits of Viet Nam unique geographical location and participation in a region that is de facto fast growing. (iii) Plans have been adopted to support the development of existing industrial parks and creating new ones mainly in coastal regions (the maritime façade of Viet Nam has a total length of about 3000 km), which will impact on the demand and supply of services. 94 (iv) The quantitative and qualitative development of services is supported by a series of general and specific laws and decrees, and policy measures. (v) Top priority sectors that will receive most attention during the next decade are clearly identified, namely: education, transports and business services. Other priority sectors are: telecommunications, tourism, banking and finance. These sectors have strong inter-linkages with other economic sectors and some of them (in particular transport and communication) provide key-inputs to manufacturing. (vi) Telecommunications have developed considerably following the creation of stateowned companies and the participation of private investors. (vii) The country has joined WTO, which creates commitments that can serve as an institutional anchor for the reform process. (viii) The ASEAN Free Trade Agreement and other FTAs stimulate the development of trade, industrial production and related services. Weaknesses (i) The quality of services is still slow. (ii) Productivity in service activities is also low. (iii) Too much importance is still attached to the role of state-owned enterprises in service sectors. (iv) In some sectors, a lack of genuine competition and market contestability might seriously hinder the development of competitive services, which can be detrimental for buyers and consumers. (v) Poverty and low incomes hamper the development of services. (vi) There is a lack of coordination among state bodies in designing and implementing service-related policies. (vii) Domestic savings are not sufficiently mobilized by the banking system, which could reflect a lack of confidence in the banking sector and low incentives to deposit savings in banks. (viii) There is insufficient qualified labour force and managerial skills. (ix) The regulatory framework is complex, sometimes seen as inappropriate and even contradictory, and not always properly enforced. (x) Private businesses are not effectively consulted by legislators and policy makers when preparing new laws. Opportunities and risks for Viet Nam’ services sector Opportunities 95 (i) Viet Nam must fully take advantage of the opportunities offered by WTO membership, and free trade and “economic cooperation” agreements. (ii) Viet Nam is an active member of AEAN, which provides opportunities for joint businesses. (iii) The growing presence of foreign-based companies contributes to the expansion of services provided by Vietnamese firms; that helps learning from best practices, improve workers and managerial skills and facilitate access to new technologies and knowledge. (iv) The services base in terms of human resources is rather “young”, which allows for more flexibility and adaptation. (v) The large industrial parks there are being created or planned in coastal and inland regions will have to be fully exploited to develop corresponding services (seen as providers of inputs), which implies the adoption of a coherent development strategy based on inter-linkages between sectors. (vi) The drift toward a knowledge-based society should allow using resources from domestic scientific and research institutions, and help their development. (vii) The on-going reform process creates windows of opportunities for innovative policies and far-reaching actions. (viii) The recovery from the world economic crisis provides opportunities for significant reallocations of productive capacities, which may benefit low-wage countries like Viet Nam, in manufacturing (e.g. with “outsourcing”) and service sectors. (ix) Vietnamese government and businesses can learn from the present crisis to strengthen services, in particular in the banking and financial sector. (x) There exists a quite large overseas Vietnamese community with qualified labour forces that could be better attracted to invest in new businesses or cooperate with existing ones. Risks (i) Actual economic difficulties affect economic growth in all sectors, which may impact negatively on the development of services. (ii) Free trade agreements and WTO commitments may worsen the position of the less competitive Vietnamese companies in domestic markets due to increased foreign competition. (iii) Well-performing domestic firms may still lack sufficient experience and strengths and, as a result, be unable to oppose successfully takeovers and other strategic actions from bigger foreign-based multinationals with large markets and financial bases. 96 4.5.3 SWOT analysis: three priority sectors Six sectors are perceived as very important for the development of Viet Nam economy – three of them are top priority sectors, namely: education, business services and transportation. Concise SWOT analyses are proposed for these top priority sectors. Table 3-2: SWOT analysis of education services in Viet Nam Attributes the Sector of Helps the sector Environment Harms the sector Strengths: there is a strong Weaknesses: insufficient political will to develop the infrastructures; material not sector. always appropriate; teachers lack training and preparation; little interface with business and economic spheres; limited role of the private sector; low salaries and motivation; the quality of private education is questionable; lack of standards and curriculum development; more emphasis on quantity than quality. Opportunities: young generation Threats: foreign competition is teachers with strong learning growing following WTO capabilities; new laws are accession; the adoption of new prepared; there is an on-going laws and reforms could be too reforms process that can be slow; the economic crisis may beneficial; the private sector impact on funding. could develop quickly following new laws and reforms; an ASIAN Institute of Technology has been created which can help the adoption of new technologies (IT…); Vietnamese students graduating abroad will go back to Viet Nam and become teachers; liberalization is taking place in line with WTO commitments. Table 3-3: SWOT analysis of transportation services in Viet Nam Attributes the Sector of Helps the sector Harms the sector Strengths: interesting geographical location, with some major economic neighbours (in particular China and SEA); long coast (3000 km); cheap labour 97 Weaknesses: lack of financing; legal framework insufficient to attract FDIs; insufficient number of deep-sea water ports. Environment force; highways and airports development are ongoing priorities; strong political will to develop transport. Opportunities: the so-called public-private-partnership may grow overtime; the role of the private sector can be enhanced with new business friendly legislation. Threats: there is growing competition from similar and/or neighbouring countries; some environmental concerns are being raised about the impact of ports. Table 3-4: SWOT analysis of business services in Viet Nam Attributes of the Sector Helps the sector Strengths: enterprises are dynamic, most of them are private; rather young working population; the market and competition are the driving forces. Environment Opportunities: WTO membership may offer unique market access opportunities; the economy and the resulting demand for services is growing fast; possibility to learn from FDIs, which create also a demand for domestic services. Harms the sector Weaknesses: inadequate and insufficient training and education; competition based more on price than quality; lack of standards and regulation; licensing can be complex. Threats: there is a fast growing foreign competition, especially from large multinationals (e.g. see advertisement services). 4.6 Effectiveness of the ser vices sector 4.6.1 The meaning of effectiveness Effectiveness is a complex concept. Broadly speaking, a given activity (that can be related to the production of both goods or services) could be said to be effective if it accomplish a purpose or produces an expected result. Efficiency is a synonym of effectiveness. Cost-effectiveness analysis compare costs of production and related outcomes. An activity is said to be cost-effective if it can produce an output at reasonably low costs in the long run. It is similar to cost-benefit and competitiveness analyses. Thus, considering the later, one may assume that, on average, cost-effective products should be competitive. Considering most services, in addition to the satisfaction of economic needs through efficient market mechanisms and low cost outputs, effectiveness analysis should also refer to so-called social needs (for instance, in terms of health and education), rural/urban imbalances, regional disparities and environmental issues – and this is particularly important for a country that wants to achieve a “socialist-market oriented economy”. 4.6.2 Social/universal needs 98 Poverty in Viet Nam Poverty is a multi-dimensional phenomenon. In addition, there are also different definitions of poverty and they may lead to different conclusions. Despite semantic issues, it is generally accepted that poverty is related to situations such that a person or a household is unable to satisfy basic needs in terms of food, clean water, clothing and shelter. It also corresponds to limited access to acceptable levels and quality of education and health services, which may lead to permanent situations of deprivation and poverty-trap. Figure 4-1: HDI evolution in Viet Nam and key-regions Some early studies undertaken by the General Statistical Office and based on Viet Nam Living Standards Surveys show that the proportion of population seen as poor declined considerably in the 1990s, from 75% in 1990 to 58% in 1993 and 37% in 1998. In 2002, the corresponding figure was 29%. About 15% of the population would presently live under the poverty line. These big changes underline the importance of economic and social progress achieved in Viet Nam and which are well summarized by the UNDP Human Development Index. Thus, Viet Nam HDI trend is comparable and very close to what is observed in EastAsia. Provision of basic services (the case of education) 99 The eradication of poverty must remain a long-term goal of social policies in Viet Nam. For that purpose, basic public utilities and services, in particular education, general and specific, at all levels, should continue to play key-roles to better support the poor and vulnerable groups. In fact, education is seen as a top-priority service that should receive specific attentions and support from Vietnamese authorities during the next decade. Education must address poverty, with targeted specific actions, eventually supported by micro-loans for promoting small businesses and increasing training opportunities in private and public enterprises. In addition, education must also be adapted to meet the actual and future needs of the private and public sectors. In that respect, a permanent, dynamic and constructive interface must be build and strengthened between the economic and business spheres and the education system to better focus curricula development in secondary and high education and deliver educational and training programmes that are more adequate for businesses, including self-employment. Considering very specific needs, permanent and adult education is a must, allowing people to combine work with, at the same time, gaining – for instance, with evening courses and on-the-job training – more qualifications. Nevertheless, some developments are not optimistic: 1) the share of education in GDP has declined from 3.2% in 2005 to 2.6% in 2008; 2) the speed of education reforms is low (for instance, more than a decade of pilot experiences was required to take a final decision about the upper-secondary education curriculum). Such tendencies/features could have negative long-term consequences on economic growth, personal incomes, inequalities and poverty alleviation – which also implies that weaknesses and threats indicated by SWOT analysis would persist. 4.6.2 Regional disparities Growing disparities Despite strong growth and a significant reduction of poverty, regional disparities in terms of development and poverty remain important; they even grew overtime, despite awareness and actions of the authorities. The highest rates of poverty are found in mountains regions (which is similar to what is observed in most countries), 5 to 8 times above what is observed in the Red River Delta and the Southeast Region. Table 4-2: Regional disparities in Viet Nam, 1998, 2002 and 2006 100 Rural poverty There are sharp dividing lines between rural and urban areas. The rural areas are generally characterized by very low-density and rather dispersed population, and are predominantly agricultural. Such features do not favour the emergence of highly developed services. In addition, productivity is low in agriculture, which corresponds to low incomes, high poverty levels and implies that the demand for manufactures and services is, on average, rather low. The role of transportation, communication and business services The development of basic infrastructure (e.g. roads and bridges; telecommunication infrastructure) and related services should reduce the isolation of remote regions and also lower transportation costs for products and people. The development of specific business services could also help promote SMEs and raise levels of employment and incomes. As the example of the Sapa region demonstrates, tourism can help develop activities in a remote region inhabited by an ethnic minority, fostering its integration in the new Vietnamese society and economy and, at the same time, achieve an interesting model of equitable and ecotourism. 4.6.3 The environment and sustainable development A long-term approach The growth of services must be fully integrated in a sustainable development strategy, from economic, social and environmental perspective. In other words, it must be affordable and must not lead to social disintegration, the long-term depletion of natural resources and the irreversible deterioration of the environment. Economic sustainability (the case of transport) Transportation infrastructures are costly. They may represent large investments, partly financed by external borrowing. There must be strict calculations of all the financial implications of new infrastructures, taking into account realistic maintenance costs – that should not be underestimated. For most goods, there are competing modes of transport (e.g. railways versus road). The state must guarantee a fair competition between all modes by imposing adequate fares, fees and taxes. Most often, the true economic and environmental costs of road transportation are underestimated which may lead to a misallocation of resources, substantial losses for the state and lower welfare for the society. Social cohesion and tourism 101 The development of tourism must not conflict with the well-being of local populations. In some regions, excessive tourism may negatively impact on communities and their way of living. Depletion of natural resource and environmental degradation (the case of tourism) Tourism is partly driven by the state of the environment. Tourism may also impact on the environment in many negative ways. Such an interface requires a balanced strategy that integrates in a single and coherent picture economic and environmental considerations. 102 4.7 Policy r ecommendations Lessons and recommendations can be derived from the outcomes of both quantitative and qualitative analysis of competitiveness and effectiveness. General and specific policy recommendations are proposed. 4.7.1 Main recommendations (i) Transparent legislation, rules and procedures A business-conducive environment requires transparent rules and procedures. To some extent, legal frameworks related to services could be simplified. The effective and fair enforcement of legislation is also important, which requires addressing corruption and bureaucratic practices. (ii) Enhancing competition The actual (positive and negative) roles of state-owned enterprises in various services sectors have to be assessed thoroughly, in particular from the perspective of effective competition (with corresponding market concentration indicators and price-setting behaviours), long-term development and also the enforcement of “hard-budget constraints” (that relates to bankruptcy legislation and banking practices). (iii) Role of Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) As indicated by quantitative analyses, (labour average-) productivity is the highest in foreignowned companies. As a result, there could be much more focus on the role of FDIs to foster economic growth. (iv) Management and labour qualifications It is essential to raise the level of qualification of management and labour. For that purpose, an effective and permanent interface must be built between the education system and the economic and business spheres. 4.7.2Other recommendations (v) Crisis, adjustment and outsourcing The restructuring of the world economy and relocation of economic activities may create unique opportunities for outsourcing for both industry and services; they could be identified and lead to concrete actions to attract FDIs (some South and East Asian countries and Ireland could be relevant examples). (vi) Tourism Following revealed comparative advantages, tourism must be developed further, with domestic and foreign investments. 103 (vii) Productivity Productivity levels are low in Viet Nam, which justifies the creation of a “productivity council” that would help identify problems and find solutions to raise the productivity in all sectors. (viii) Pro-poor actions There is still poverty in Viet Nam that can be reduced with services development. (ix) Support to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) SMEs must receive a special attention, especially in rural and remote areas, which requires more adequate business training and education – with the support of corresponding business and financial services. (x) Reducing regional disparities Some regions (e.g. highlands and mountainous regions) must receive more specific attention from authorities, with the development of adequate public and private services and infrastructures. (xi) Raising environmental concerns Some services (e.g. transport and tourism) may impact negatively on the environment. The state must adopt laws and instruments to reduce environmental risks and correcting damages. 104 Selected references Central Institute for Economic Management (2008): Viet Nam’s Economy 2007 (a reference book). General Statistical Office (2008): Statistical Yearbook of Viet Nam 2007. General Statistical Office (2009): The Situation of Enterprises through the Results of Surveys conducted in 2006, 2007, 2008. International Monetary Fund (2009): Viet Nam: 2008 Article IV Consultation – Staff Report; Staff Supplement and Statement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Viet Nam, IMF Country Report No. 09/110. Ministry of Planning and Investment (2009): Result-based Mid-term Review Report for Implementation of the Five-year Socio-economic Development Plan 2006-2010. Ministry of Planning and Investment (2007): Viet Nam’s IPs, EPZs and EZs – Ideal Places for Manufacturing Base – A Guide for Investing in Viet Nam’s IPs, EPZs and EZs. Ministry of Planning and Investment (2006) and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP): General Framework for a National Strategy for the Services Sector in Viet Nam up to 2020. Ministry of Planning and Investment and United Nations Development Programme (2005): Services Sector Development – A Key to Viet Nam’s Sustainable Growth. Ministry of Transport (2006): National Transport Development Strategy in Viet Nam till 2020. NGUYEN Quang Kinh and NGUYEN Quoc Chi: “Education in Viet Nam: Development History, Challenges, and Solutions”, mimeo. The World Bank (2009): World Development Indicators 2009. The World Bank (2008): World Trade Indicators 2008 – Benchmarking Policy and Performance. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (2008): Investment Policy Review Viet Nam. Viet Nam Business Forum: Annual Consultative Group Meeting 2008, December 1st 2008. 105 Annex 1 Assessing competition conditions The implementation of competition policy in Viet Nam requires economic analysis for at least: 1) Defining the market, 2) Measuring market concentration and 3) Assessing market dominance. 1. Defining the market The definition of a market is essential for assessing market power. The more narrowly the market is defined, the more likely a firm or a group of firms can be found to have market power. There are several methods for defining markets: - cross-price elasticities, - price correlations, - shipment data (“geographical market definition”). These approaches suffer from drawbacks. Nevertheless, they can still be useful for narrowing the scope of competition investigations. Considering cross-price elasticity, it is a traditional tool to define markets. If the cross price-elasticity for products A and B is high, then A and B are said to be close substitutes and, therefore, they belong the same market. Nevertheless, the cross-price elasticity is far from being perfect: How high must be the elasticity to conclude that products are close substitutes? Price correlations are easy to calculate, but there might be spurious correlations because of the influence of third factors, not properly identified or fully ignored; leads and lags might matter, requiring dynamic specification. Considering shipments, there are also diverging views: should actual or potential shipments be the reference? More recently, the “SSNIP (namely: Small Significant Non-transitory/permanent Increase in Price) test” became a “must”. It was introduced in the US in 1982, and adopted by the EC in 1997. 2. Measuring market concentration Market concentration is related to the number of firms in a market and their respective market shares. Several indices can be used to measure concentration. Two common indices of concentration are: 106 - - The “four firm concentration index”, which is the sum of the market shares of the four largest firms in the market. One drawback of that index is that there is no justification for choosing four firms instead of three or five – it is somehow arbitrary. In addition, the index does not really provide significant information about the actual market structure because the discrepancies and concentration within the four largest firms are not perceived. The “Herfindahl-Hirschman Index”, unlike the four-firm concentration ratio, reflects both the distribution of the market shares of the top four firms and the composition of the market outside the top four firms. It also gives proportionately greater weight to the market shares of the largest firms, in accord with their relative importance in competitive interactions. 3. Assessing market power Again, several indices are proposed. A very common index of market power is the “Lerner index” that is the difference between the firm’s market price and the marginal cost of production divided by the price. The higher is the index, the stronger is the market power. Once more, limitations and difficulties are underlined: the calculation of the marginal cost of production at any given point in time is rather complicated, even impossible. The SSNIP approach, already mentioned, can be used to assess market power. For that purpose, it is required to calculate the “critical elasticity of demand” (the elasticity value necessary to leave profit unchanged following a price increase). The SSNIP approach has been criticized because it does not take into account the cost structure and, as a result, it may overestimate market power, etc. 4. Implications for Viet Nam Viet Nam is confronted with the various challenges of liberal transition for which the “contestability of markets” is essential for growth and consumers’ welfare. Competition conditions on the major service markets should be assessed carefully, referring to the three levels of economic analysis proposed here above: defining markets, measuring concentration and assessing dominance; telecommunications is an obvious candidate for such an analysis. 107 CHAPTER 5:TRADE IN SERVICES: WHAT STRATEGY FOR VIET NAM? 5.1 Intr oduction A review of the recent empirical research suggests that: (i) further opening of the Viet Nam’s financial, telecom and infrastructure services would contribute to the country’s overall economic performance and FDI inflows; (ii) better trade-related services would positively impact Viet Nam’s export volume; (iii) more efficient infrastructure services would encourage higher value exports, (iv) improved transport (maritime and air), infrastructure services and regulatory environment would enhance the global competitiveness of the Vietnamese companies, (v) more FDI s in producer services would stimulate manufacturing productivity and exports and (vi) efficient distribution services in Viet Nam would increase the country’s benefits from international trade. Based on the desk research and a series of interviews with experts in Viet Nam, the following areas are recommended as focus in a national services export strategy for the next 15 years: e-commerce, computer-related services, engineering services, construction services, transportation (in synergy with the ASEAN partners) and freight forwarding services, “green” hospitality and specialized medical services, FDI support and promotion services, equipment maintenance (ships & airplanes) and the temporary labor migration. In our view a sectorbased strategy MPI/UNDP, 2005) should be complemented by a niche-based approach since a single sector involves service providers with both strong and weak export potential. The recommended priority service imports aim at strengthening Viet Nam’s infrastructure by focusing on: banking, telecom and computer-related services, transport, education & training and energy-related services. Service trade strategy for Viet Nam should also modernize the country’s consumer service base and encourage imports of intra-sector inputs required for export development. To implement such objectives there is a need for more FDI in distribution, franchising in consumer services and imports of environment-related services, medical services, safety and security services and R&D services. It is urgent to increase the business community’s awareness of service export opportunities, to strengthen the service industry associations’ role in shaping regulations and infrastructurerelated decisions in Viet Nam and to ensure that the state-controlled service providers VIETRADE and training institutions intensify their efforts to improve Viet Nam’s performance in global service markets. The suggested Viet Nam’s service export strategy comprises (i) preliminary awareness-building and networking activities aimed at mobilizing the main actors and (ii) projects aimed at improving export readiness, advocacy and more service-friendly regulation and infrastructure. The Vietnamese Services Forum should become a focal institution for service industries, scholars and government in Viet Nam. What can the Government of Viet Nam do to develop trade in services? This paper begins by reviewing the current “service trade gap” in Viet Nam from an international perspective. It follows with the discussion of the prerequisites for stimulating service trade, suggestions for government strategy until 2020 and beyond (vision 2025) and input into an action plan to be elaborated by the Government of Viet Nam. 108 5.2 The Fr amewor k of Inquir y 5.2.1 The Forms of Government Involvement in Service Trade The main forms of government involvement in service trade are (i) regulation, (ii) trade promotion, (iii) state trading (& government procurement) and (iv) public investment in infrastructure (i.e. the “public good” that is particularly relevant for international trade in services). A comprehensive government strategy for the Viet Nam’s improved performance in services trade should refer, thus, to the four forms of government involvement that are elaborated upon in Table 1. Table 1: The Government Involvement in International Trade of Services in Viet Nam: A Typology Category Form General Environment Sector Regulation Regulation Examples Regulatory FDI policy, rules on currency convertibility, anti-trust legislation affecting service markets, anti-corruption laws and practices, rules affecting business operations; Sector-specific regulations such as those affecting foreign bank activities or telecom in Viet Nam; Trade Policy Specific Issues Market access conditions negotiated in the WTO , ASEAN of BTA for services, unilateral trade liberalization; Visa practices, professional certification, work permits for foreign employees; land ownership laws Trade Promotion Activities of National Trade Marketing intelligence in foreign markets, Promotion Organizations advocacy for service export firms; partner search; Support for Self-help Business Organizations Vietnamese Government’s support for the international promotion activities of the chamber of commerce, industry associations, Commercial Diplomacy etc; Support for trade in services by commercial sections of Viet Nam’s Embassies abroad; State Trading Export of services by state-owned and state- 109 State Trading & Government Government Procurement Procurement controlled enterprises in Viet Nam (.e.g. Viet Nam Airlines); Hardware Government Investment in Software Infrastructure (Public Good) Source: author’s classification Airport facilities, telecom networks, road infrastructure, warehousing facilities, etc; Procurement of services purchased by Vietnamese Government from foreign sources (e.g. legal services); Education and professional training, entrepreneurial and linguistic skills, service culture, governance of state institutions. 5.2.2. Trade in Services: A Marketing Strategy Perspective According to the WTO definition trade in services comprises four modes of supply crossboarder (mode 1), consumer movement (mode 2), commercial presence (mode 3) and temporary entry (mode 4). The classification used in this paper (Table 2) focuses on clientprovider relationship which seems more suitable for strategy development. Table 2: International Marketing of Services by Viet Nam: A Client – Provider Classification & the Main Strategic Concerns Services Marketed to The Main Strategic Concerns Simply Explained Good regulation helps but it is only a starting point. Make it FDIfriendly, flexible with respect to various forms of foreign ownership and easy to comply with (e.g. single desk to contact government); Care more about modifying the “real life” rules of doing business rather than dealing mainly with legalistic reforms; services are 1. Foreign firms in particularly affected by administrative culture and relationships. Viet Nam Professional skills have to be up-graded; training for lower-skill workers requires particular attention. Support for entrepreneurship and service exporting SMEs is a must. Invest in infrastructure (transport, telecommunication, computer networks, education, teaching English). Don’t neglect training opportunities in the rural areas in Viet Nam. Viet Nam has a great potential as tourist destination but a niche 110 approach is needed. Opt for a selective and environment-friendly development of tourist infrastructure. Cultivate Vietnamese style of hotel architecture and 2. Foreign visitors to ensure quality service to attract tourists from most attractive market Viet Nam segments. Develop transportation, telecom, and e-marketing. Develop annexed activities related to certain sports, Vietnamese cooking, medical services, etc. Put emphasis on rural tourism development which has potential in Viet Nam. Vietnamese culture is an advantage in hospitality services but professional training is required to reveal that advantage even more. Teach English to school children and young adults. Reinforce the Viet Nam’s business and logistics hub for the Greater Mekong sub-region. 3. Foreign owners of equipment Develop ship maintenance services and the airline support services. temporarily transferred to Viet Consider partnership with foreign leaders in both areas to gain access to international customer networks, assure quality service through Nam training and couching and obtain access to capital. The services are the strategic priority for Viet Nam since they are beneficial both for merchandize trade and trade in services. 4. Trade-related services offered to Develop shipping and air transport facilities and cargo forwarding exporters and services. importers Improve trade finance and insurance and trading capacities. . Protection of foreign investors should be improved to attract quality investors. 5. Foreign investors in Viet Nam (present and Need for a stronger and more proactive promotion and a single-desk potential) government service to newcomers to attract FDI into the service sector in Viet Nam.. Activate trade representatives to “sell” Viet Nam to the most attractive foreign investors. Form local internet entrepreneurs. 6. Foreign clients for Simplify rules concerning creation of SMEs and their international Viet Nam’s on-line activities. services Encourage computer literacy. Viet Nam’s temporary labour transfer relies too heavily on lowskilled labor. 111 Combine the labor transfer arrangements with programs of professional learning. 7. Foreign clients for temporary labour Offer a government-sponsored service to search for potential inputs from Viet Nam employees abroad and to provide government support in contract negotiations. Deal with social security problems, health insurance, schooling arrangements for the employees’ children, logistics, visas and other travel arrangements. Protect your workers internationally. 8. Foreign clients for services offered by the Vietnamese firms temporarily based abroad Support service exports by companies active in construction, transportation, architectural services, entertainment, restaurant services, art exhibitions, sport events, etc - all provide interesting opportunities for Vietnamese firms offering services to foreign clients on a temporary basis. Support establishment of the Vietnamese distribution chains abroad for products such as food, furniture, quality silk.. Develop such 9. Foreign clients for chains either through franchising or in partnership with foreign services offered by companies. Develop exports of construction services. subsidiaries of the Vietnamese firms Subsidiaries of the Vietnamese construction firms abroad will be an abroad important tool for gaining foreign contracts. Give priority to computer-related services, engineering consulting, restaurants, medical services. International franchising arrangements might be a good expansion formula. Source: own classification 5.3 Economic Development and Ser vice Tr ade in Viet Nam 5.3.1 The Relative Importance of the Viet Nam’s Service Sector Services account for more than 70 per cent of economic activity in high-income countries. Even in the lowest income economies, services generate at least 40 per cent of GDP. In Viet Nam services account for less than 40 % of GDP which is low by international standards Duiring the recent years, Viet Nam’s service activities were growing at a lower rate than GDP and at a much lower rate than industrial production. The global financial crisis and weaker macroeconomic performance in Viet Nam dampened the service growth in 2008 and continued to do so in 2009. Viet Nam’s services are not enough diversified; over the last decade only around 60 of the total 155 service categories set by the WTO were offered in Viet Nam (The Prime Minister's Research Council, Viet Nam, 09 -12-2005). 5.3.2 Services in the Viet Nam’s Trade In spite of a substantial growth in services exports (Table 3), the share of services in total Viet Nam’s exports is only in the range of 10%. It is less than the average share of 15.6% (2007) for developing countries and of 20% for developed countries as a whole. (The situation is 112 similar for imports). Imports of services by Viet Nam have grown overall at a higher rate than exports (Table 3), particularly the import of telecom services increased significantly. The main categories of service exports from Viet Nam are tourism, air transportation and shipping (Table 4) which indicate a revealed pattern of comparative advantage. The most important exports take place through mode 2 (tourism) and mode 4 (temporary migration of workers abroad). That situation is different for world’s trade where more than 40 per cent of export is taking place in mode 1(cross boarder), another 40 per cent in mode 3 (commercial presence) with about 15 percent being in mode 2 (consumer movement or travel) and only about 2 per cent in mode 4 (Hoekman, Kostecki, 2009). The major importation of services to Viet Nam takes place through mode 2 (tourism and air transportation) and mode 3 (commercial presence of foreign firms in Viet Nam). Table3: Service Exports and Imports of Viet Nam, 1990-2008 Export Year Turnover (USD million) Import Change (%) TurnShare in over export (USD (%) million) 1990 182 7,0 126 1991 449 146,7 17,7 270 1992 724 61,2 21,9 412 1993 772 6,6 20,5 694 1994 1283 66,2 24,0 1264 1995 2147 67,3 28,3 1982 1996 2243 4,5 23,6 2304 1997 2530 12,8 21,6 3153 1998 2616 3,4 21,8 3146 1999 2493 -4,7 17,8 3040 2000 2702 8,4 15,7 3252 2001 2810 4,0 15,8 3382 2002 2948 4,9 15,0 3698 2003 3272 11,0 14,0 4050 2004 3867 18,2 12,7 4739 2005 4265 10,3 11,6 4480 2006 5100 19,6 11,4 5792 2007 6460 26,7 11,7 7176 2008 7096 9,8 10,2 7915 Source: Annual Statistic Book 2008 and WTO statistics Change (%) 114,3 52,6 68,4 82,1 56,8 16,2 36,8 -0,2 -3,4 7,0 4,0 9,3 9,5 17,0 -5,5 29,3 23,9 10,3 Service exports Share in minus imports imports (USD (%) million) 4,4 56 10,4 179 14,0 312 15,0 78 17,8 19 19,6 165 17,1 -61 21,4 -623 21,3 -530 20,6 -547 17,2 -550 17,3 -572 15,8 -750 13,8 -778 11,5 -872 10,9 -215 11,4 -692 10,3 -716 8,9 -819 Viet Nam’s performance in service exports remains in line with that of the other dynamic economies. A number of developing countries which became significant service exporters especially in transactions processing, related back-office services and information and software services - include India and China which registered double-digit growth. Viet Nam’s service exports (2003-7) and imports (1991-2007) have also grown at a double digit level. 113 Viet Nam’s share in world exports of commercial services was in the range of 0.18 per cent in 2007 and of 0.22 per cent for imports, placing Viet Nam as the 59th rank among the WTO exporters of commercial services (compared with its 50th rank of merchandize exporters in 2007). Viet Nam ranked as 40th importer of commercial services, compared with its 41st rank in merchandize imports during the same year (WTO, 2008). Viet Nam’s trade in services slowed considerably in Q4 2008, a trend which affected all countries and continued well into 2009 due to the on-going economic slowdown. Table 4 reveals significant imbalanced for several categories of service trade. In particular, Viet Nam’s shipping fleet has aged considerably and a growing portion of merchandize exports are now being carried on foreign vessels. Moreover, there has been a deficit in “other services” (not well specified in Viet Nam’s published statistics) and a modest deficit in insurance services. 5.3.3 Viet Nam’s Development Objectives and Trade in Services Service sector reforms are supported by manufacturing and agricultural interests in Viet Nam. In order to benefit from the process of globalization with its attendant ‘splintering’ or ‘fragmentation’ of the production chain Vietnamese enterprises must have access to efficient service inputs. As Viet Nam reduces tariffs and other barriers to trade in goods, effective rates of protection for manufacturing industries would become increasingly negative if the latter were continuously confronted with input prices that remained higher than they would be if services markets were contestable. Table 4: Service Exports and Imports of Viet Nam by Sub-sectors (2005-2008) (US$ million) 2005 2006 2007 2008 estimates I. EXPORT 4.265 5.100 6.460 7.096 1. Tourism 2.300 2.850 3.750 4.020 2. Air transportation service 657 890 1.069 1.322 3. Shipping 4. Telecommunication service 510 650 810 1.034 100 120 110 80 5. Financial service 220 270 332 230 6. Insurance service 45 50 65 60 7. Government service 33 40 45 50 8. Other services 400 230 279 300 II. IMPORT 4.480 5.792 7.176 7.915 1. Tourism 900 1.050 1.220 1.300 2. Air transportation service 630 700 820 800 3. Shipping 170 210 250 300 4. Telecommunication and post service 31 30 47 54 and postal 114 5. Financial service 230 270 300 230 6. Insurance service 130 160 210 150 7. Government service 30 40 40 50 8. Other services 850 850 1.030 850 2.482 3.259 4.181 9. Postage I, imported goods F 1.509 Source: Annual Statistical Book, Viet Nam, 2008. The Doi Moi reforms and Viet Nam’s participation in the WTO and regional trade agreements accelerated regulatory change and increased contestability of service markets in Viet Nam (discussion below). But, the reforms have to continue to further reduce the impact of importsubstitution policy on services in Viet Nam (MPI and UNDP, 2006). Viet Nam also needs to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) to strengthen its under-developed service sector. 5.3.4 Viet Nam and International Trade Agreements Viet Nam participates in international trade agreements which affect trade in services: (i)Viet Nam-US Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA), (ii) the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services (AFAS), (iii) and the World Trade Organization (WTO). BTA (Viet Nam - US) The Viet Nam- US Bilateral Trade Agreement (2001- ) reinforced the commercial links between the United States (Hanoi’s most important trading partner) and Viet Nam. Both countries signed in 2007 the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) and initiated in 2008 negotiations on a Bilateral Investment Treaty. Under the TIFA the US and Viet Nam advance the BTA and Viet Nam’s WTO commitments, aimed at intensifying trade flows in services, goods and FDI s. (Reports on the business- relevant BTA developments are available at the US Commercial Service site: www.buyusa.gov/Viet Nam/en/us_Viet Nam_bta.html. ASEAN As a member of the Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN) and the AsiaPacific Economic Cooperation Forum (APEC) Viet Nam participated in negotiations on service trade liberalization and offered commitments in telecom, tourism financial services and other areas under the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services (AFAS). Following the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation between China and ASEAN, the Service Trade Agreement finally took effect in July 2007. According to that Agreement and on the basis of its commitment made to the WTO, China has liberalized 26 sectors of interest to Viet Nam and other ASEAN countries in areas such as construction, environment preservation, transportation, sports and business. On the other hand, Viet Nam and its ASEAN neighbors committed to open their markets in finance, telecom, education, tourism, construction, and medical services (Chunmei Yang, 2009). Moreover, the ASEAN Single Aviation Market (SAM) progressively introduces an open-sky arrangement to the region by 2015. The ASEAN SAM is expected to fully liberalize air travel between its member states, allowing ASEAN to directly benefit from the global growth in air travel. A detailed presentation of Viet Nam’s commitments under AFTA, WTO and Viet Nam-US BTA is available at the World Bank’s site: INTRANETTRADE/Resources /Topics/Services/Viet Nam-tradecommit_Asean_services.pdf 115 WTO. Since its 2007 accession, Viet Nam continued to implement laws and regulations in compliance with its WTO obligations. The Viet Nam’s WTO commitments affecting trade in services were influenced by the fact that most service sectors in Viet Nam were in still in the early stage of development (NCIEC/USAID, 2006). However, through 2015, Viet Nam is expected to implement far-reaching regulatory, administrative and economic reforms that will provide an increasingly favorable environment for foreign providers of services in Viet Nam and open new markets for Vietnamese service firms. To this end, in 2008 Prime Minister Mr. Nguyen Tan Dung announced “Project 30” (Box 8) which aims to reduce and simplify the national and provincial regulations that affect economic operators throughout Viet Nam. The schedule of specific WTO commitments on trade in services by Viet Nam covers 105 service sectors and sub-sectors (WTO, 2008 and MUTRAP II SERV-1 and SERV-2). However, in a large number of instances Viet Nam reserved its right to limit foreign ownership of service firms. Such is the case of telecom services where the eventual limits can be 49 per cent or 65 per cent foreign ownership share, depending on the service concerned (US Commercial Service, 2006). In a few other cases, foreign ownership may be 100%, the most significant services concerned being accountancy services. In many instances, the ownership limits imposed on foreigners will be progressively phased out and will reach 100% after several years. For example, in the case of courier services, total foreign ownership is permitted after five years of company’s presence in Viet Nam. An inquiry point for service providers is currently being prepared in conformity with the Viet Nam’s GATS’ obligations. (For Viet Nam’s GATS commitments see: www.wto.org doc. WT/ACC/VNM/48/ Add. 2). Box 8 Trade in Services and Project 30 One of the main objectives of the Administrative Procedures Simplification Project (Project 30) for state management for the period 2007-2010 is to reduce ‘red tape’ in business. Project 30 has a real potential to improve the administrative environment in Viet Nam both for domestic and foreign firms including service providers. The project attempts to reduce red tape on a systemic basis. For example, it is building a web-based electronic database of legal documents that will enhance transparency for regulators, enterprises and citizens so that everyone knows what their respective rights and obligations are.The Project’s effectiveness depends in large part on the contributions from the managers who deal with administrative procedures and are invited to provide feedback through their business associations or directly on the Project 30 website at www.thutuchanhchinh.vn. The feedback should preferably contain constructive suggestions for better ways to implement procedures that are necessary but not always handled efficiently enough. It is expected that the project will make a difference in the “service mentality” in Viet Nam and increase the country’s attractiveness for foreign investors and service providers. Several successful pilot initiatives have been already introduced under the Project’s umbrella. For example, more rapid business establishment procedures were introduced at the industrial parks and the e-Customs procedures at the Lao Cai border crossing are getting good reviews from the traders. Source: “Viet NamNet Bridge” 07.08.2009 /http://english.Viet Namnet.vn/ The WTO, BTA and ASEAN/AFAS offer a mechanism for Viet Nam to pre-commit to a reform path and to lock-in reforms that have already been achieved. Overall all the BTA and AFAS arrangements result in GATS + commitments, i.e. commitments that go beyond those 116 undertaken by the WTO countries. The three agreements are equally important in opening foreign markets for Viet Nam’s service providers abroad. Viet Nam is a promising player with numerous opportunities for services exports, via Modes 1, 3, and 4 to the ASEAN countries and some other targeted markets (discussed below). 5.4 The Impact of Policy Refor ms in Ser vices on Tr ade and Economic Per for mance Modernizing Viet Nam signifies moving to a service economy, i.e. an economy where services become “strategic” within the industries. International trade in services has an important role to play in that process since trade in higher value-added goods is service-based. Firms which are successful in global markets focus on R&D, optimal business processes, international marketing and value chain management, development of human & social capital, logistics and networking – all of which result from service activities. Those firms also need efficient service inputs such as business support, education and training, banking, computerrelated services or telecom (Kostecki, 1994). There is significant of economic research documenting the effects of policy reforms in services on economic performance, export performance, gains from trade and country’s attractiveness for foreign investors. The following strategic propositions for Viet Nam are inspired by the results of the empirical research in question. (i) A further opening of Viet Nam’s financial, telecom and infrastructure services would contribute to the country’s overall economic performance and attract FDI s. In a crosssection, cross-country regression analysis, Mattoo, Rathindran and Subramanian (2006) show that countries with open financial and telecom sectors grew, on average, about 1 percentage point faster than other economies. Fully liberalizing both the telecom and the financial services was associated with an average growth rate 1.5 percentage points above that of other countries. Eschenbach and Hoekman (2006a) use three indicators of the ‘quality’ of policy in banking, non-bank financial services and infrastructure, covering the 1990-2004 period, to examine the influence of changes in services policy, including liberalization, on economic performance over this period for twenty countries in transition. They suggests that changes in policies towards financial and infrastructure services, including telecom, power and transport, are considerably correlated with inward FDI and that services policy reforms are significant explanatory variables for the post-1990 economic performance of the twenty transition economies concerned. Finally, while Viet Nam has liberalized merchandize trade in line with its WTO commitments, many service sectors are still under protection (MPI/UNDP (2005). Liberalizing imports of service-intensive final products without liberalizing equally rapidly imports of service inputs in Viet Nam may result in a negative rate of effective protection for a series of industries in Viet Nam that should push for liberalization. (ii) Improvements in trade-related services would positively impact Viet Nam’s export volume. The academic literature has devoted attention to the effects of ‘trade costs’— the non tariff costs of getting products from producers to consumers. Most trade costs are servicesrelated. The impact of diminishing transport fees on trade may be considerably larger proportionately than those that can be obtained from liberalization merchandize trade because transport generates real resource costs as opposed to rents (Deardorf, 2001). Insofar as customs and public administration services generate redundant procedures and duplication of fixed costs – which is the case of Viet Nam - the potential gains from liberalization of ‘traderelated services’ are particularly important. 117 (iii) More efficient infrastructure services would encourage Viet Nam’s higher value exports. Another range of trade costs originates in infrastructure-related services. Limao and Venables (2001) estimated that unsatisfactory infrastructure accounts for 40 per cent of predicted transport costs for coastal economies, such as Viet Nam. Francois and Manchin (2007) suggest that infrastructure is a significant determinant not only of export levels, but also of the likelihood exports will take place at all. They show that basic infrastructure (communications and transportation) explains substantially more of the overall sample variation in exports than do the trade barriers faced by developing economies. Numerous other studies have shown the interdependence between the efficiency of domestic infrastructure services and a country’s performance in trade. Francois and Reinert (1996) find that the importance of services for export performance increases with per capita incomes—business, distribution and communications services become the most important sectoral elements of overall exports in terms of inter-industry linkages. Fink, Mattoo and Neagu (2005) show that international communication costs are particularly important as a determinant of export performance in the case of high value, differentiated products, whereas they matter less for more homogenous, bulk type commodity trade. In other terms, they become increasingly important for Viet Nam as the country’s exports graduate from that of raw materials and simpler products towards a more sophisticated export portfolio. (iv) Better maritime and air transport, customs clearance, infrastructure services and regulatory environment would enhance the global competitiveness of Vietnamese companies. Actions to reduce these excess costs and improve quality would enhance the competitiveness of Vietnamese business, with an aggregate effect that is akin to a depreciation of the real exchange rate. Wilson, Mann and Otsuki (2005) use a gravity model to evaluate the effects of ‘trade cost’ variables, (two of which are services-related - port efficiency, customs clearance), of the regulatory environment more broadly and of service sector infrastructure (telecom, ebusiness) across 75 economies for the years 2000/1. The potential expansion in merchandize trade from improvements in all the four areas—raising performance of ‘underperformers’ to the average in the sample—is estimated to be about $380 billion. On average, the port efficiency variable (including both maritime and air transport) accounts for more than half of the trade costs imposed by policies in the four areas considered (Hoekman, Kostecki, 2009). The model suggests that the impact might be equally important in the case of Viet Nam. (v) Greater FDI s in producer services would stimulate Viet Nam’s manufacturing productivity and exports. The dependence between policy reforms in services and inward FDI in services on the one hand, and between total factor productivity growth performance of businesses that use services and this FDI on the other hand is among the most robust empirical results concerning services reforms. Arnold, Javorcik and Mattoo (2007) considered the effects of allowing foreign providers greater access to services industries on the productivity of manufacturing industries relying on services inputs. The results, based on firm-level data from the Czech Republic for the period 1998–2003, showed a positive relationship between FDI in services and the performance of domestic firms in manufacturing. In similar study concerning Africa and based data from over 1,000 firms in 10 Sub-Saharan countries, Arnold, Mattoo and Narciso (2006) find a positive relationship between firm performance and the performance of three service input industries for which data were collected through company surveys (access to communications, electricity and financial services). The link between services sector reforms and manufacturing productivity and export propensity was further examined by Arnold, Javorcik, Lipscomb and Mattoo (2008). Basing their research on data for 10,000 Indian firms for 1990–2005, they show that the reforms are associated with a substantial increase of FDI into services, outpacing FDI going 118 into goods. They also suggest a strong positive relationship between policy reforms in banking, telecom and transport and the productivity of Indian manufacturing sectors. Companies that depended substantially on banking and telecom were characterized by higher total factor productivity growth rates which is a strong argument for rapid liberalization of banking and telecom in Viet Nam. (vi Efficient distribution services in Viet Nam would increase the country’s benefits from international trade. Gains from trade are both about exports and imports. Francois and Wooton (2007) note that trade flows considerably depend on the degree of market power exercised by the domestic trade and distribution sectors. In absence of competition, the domestic distribution often serves as a considerable import barrier against trade in goods and services. The study shows that the benefits of tariff reductions may be overstated if one ignores the competitive situation in distribution. It also demonstrates that competition in distribution matters in particular for smaller traders. This is intuitive, in that small players will have less ability to counteract the market power they confront. To ensure competition in its distribution services Viet Nam has to curb the dominant position of its state-owned enterprises ensuring, at the same time, that the dominant market position is not taken over by the multinational distribution firms entering the country. 5.5 The Pr er equisites for Stimulating Gr owth of Tr ade in Ser vices 5.5.1 Key Drivers of Service Growth. There are several reasons for the rise in the share of services in output and employment as countries become richer. First, one can observe that with the progressing economic development there an increasing specialization and exchange of services through the market (‘outsourcing’). The latter also coincides with an increased diversity and service quality that may raise productivity of firms and welfare of consumers. Second, there is little doubt that economic growth in turn increases demand for purchased services. However, it should be kept in mind that the scope for (labour) productivity improvements in the provision of many services is less than in agriculture and manufacturing. The latter implies that over time the (real) costs of these services rises relative to merchandise, as is their share of employment (Baumol, 1967; Fuchs, 1968). Finally de-regulation and liberalization have a role to play. A recent study by the World Bank on the discriminatory policies restricting entry in specific services markets of 30 developing economies shows great heterogeneity of policies affecting trade in services (Gootiz and Mattoo, 2008). Numerous sectors are open, especially for FDI, but in many other sectors restrictions are imposed or the sectors are completely closed. International comparisons of ‘sensitive’ service sectors show considerable differences in comparative advantage and the legacy of past policies. (For example, in India, a number of key sectors were liberalized in this century. Barriers to entry have been eliminated especially in telecommunications and freight transport, and are being removed in insurance and banking. Nevertheless, India continues to maintain restrictions on foreign ownership and professional services like accountancy and legal, retail distribution, postal and rail transport services are closed to foreign providers). In numerous countries, including Viet Nam, barriers to entry in services markets, ranging from telecommunications to banking or professional services, are maintained not only for foreign companies but also against new domestic firms. Overall, the empirical studies show that business services such as consultancy are among the least protected areas (also in Viet Nam) 119 whereas protection is higher in transportation, professional services, finance and fixed-line telecommunications (UNCTAD, 2005). 5.5.2 Supporting Infrastructure for Trade in Services. Trade in services is considerably dependent on such diverse variables as the country’s human capital, cultural characteristics, the size of FDI , infrastructure for trade, cost structure, the nature of organizational change and the extend of trade entrepreneurship . In the case of Viet Nam the pressure to increase trade in services will also result from such driving factors as the country’s rapid economic growth, the emerging middle class and Viet Nam’s participation in international trade agreements. Obviously, an appropriate infrastructure (both hardware and software) is essential in that context (proposals 3.5(i), (iii) and (iv) discussed above). Much of the growth in cross-border services trade over the last two decades has been in business process outsourcing (BPO) services, (which are captured in the balance-of-payments category ‘other commercial services’). The rapid growth in trade in such activities has led to a significant decline in the shares of more traditional services such as transport and travel and that tendency is also affecting Viet Nam. 5.6 Str ategic Recommendations for Development of Viet Nam’s Tr ade In Ser vices A strategy - in order to be meaningful and operational - has to be developed for every specific forms of government intervention and as well, as for a defined range of services. A framework for Viet Nam’s government strategy for trade in services is suggested in Table 5. The matrix distinguishes between four forms of government intervention that may be used to implement a strategy (regulation, trade promotion, state trading and infrastructure) and specifies different groups of foreign clients served (listed in the left column from 1 to 9). For example, government strategy concerning infrastructure (column 4) refer to software (general education, professional training, command of English, couching, etc) and hardware (maritime and air ports, telecom and computer networks). Depending on the service exports concerned, the matrix enables its user to emphasizes different aspects of government intervention and its related strategy. 120 Table 5 Mapping Government Strategy for Trade in Services: Policy /Client Matrix and Leading Concerns Service 1. Regulation 2. Trade (& 3. State 4. Infrastructure marketed to FDI) Trading Promotion 1. Foreign firms X X in Viet Nam 2. Foreign visitors to Viet X X Nam 3. Foreign owners of equipment X temporarily transferred to Viet Nam 4. Trade-related services offered X X X X to exporters and importers 5. Foreign investors in Viet Nam X X (present and potential) 6. Foreign clients for Viet X X Nam’s on-line services 7. Foreign clients for temporary labor X inputs from Viet Nam 8. Foreign clients for temporary service offered X X X by the Vietnamese firms abroad 9. Foreign clients for services offered by subsidiaries X X X of the Vietnamese firms abroad 121 Source: own classification, Note: ooo – particularly urgent need for a new strategy, omoderate need for a new strategy. For example, in the case of software infrastructure for service exports provided to foreign visitors (cell 2.4.) focus will be on hotel schools, training in quality improvement in hospitality services, development of nursing skills, etc. In the case of infrastructure for service offered on-line to foreign clients (cell 6.4) the emphasis will be on telecom networks, access to the Internet or development of computer-related skills in the Viet Nam’s educational system. The policy concerns that are emphasized in this paper as particularly critical for the type of service considered are marked with “X” in Table 5 and considered in the discussion below. It may be seen that most concerns refer to regulation, followed by service infrastructure and trade promotion activities. 5.6.1 Improving the Regulatory Framework A major factor determining both the attractiveness of Viet Nam to foreign providers and the competitiveness of the Vietnamese exporters is the regulatory environment. As already mentioned, an impressive agenda of reforms has been already introduced, but still more market market-oriention, de-regulation and liberalisation is needed if Viet Nam is to evolve into a middle-income economy prior to 2025. Such reforms should attract more and “better” FDI s, facilitate the country’s trade in services enhancing the position of Viet Nam as logistic (and a business) hub for the Greater Mekong sub-region (UNCTAD, 2008). What are the negative aspects of regulation no which the government should act to improve the regulatory environment for service trade? 1. Business climate. In terms of “ease to do business” in 2009 – an objective measure of business regulations and their enforcement computed by the World Bank - Viet Nam ranks 92 out of 181 countries. The “ease to do business” in Viet Nam is perceived in 2009 as less satisfactory than a year ago (5 points down compared with 2008) . Viet Nam’s score is particularly weak on aspects such as “protecting investors (170th rank), paying taxes (140) or closing a business (124). 2. Bureaucracy. Red tape within the Vietnamese administration has reduced productivity of service providers operating in Viet Nam. Foreign firms (and the Vietnamese software providers) often complain about ineffective protection of intellectual property in Viet Nam. Bureaucracy is particularly burdensome at customs where there is not enough coordination and not enough streamlining of the various control activities. Project 30 (Box 8) is likely to bring some improvement that should be monitored. 3. Entrepreneurial freedom. The state's role in the Viet Nam’s economy has gradually declined but continues to be perceived as an obstacle by business. A 2009 tax reform package, which includes rate reductions for income and corporate taxes, is generally seen as positive but several key institutional challenges still limit Viet Nam's overall economic freedom in Viet Nam. In general, the regulatory and legal environment is far from effective and transparent. Foreign investment is hindered by screening, nontransparent bureaucracy, and an unreliable legal system. Viet Nam’s economic freedom score is 51, making its economy the 145th freest in the 2009 Index of Economic Freedom by the Heritage Foundation. The country’s score has increased by 122 0.6 point, reflecting moderate improvements. Viet Nam ranks 32nd out of 41 countries in the Asia–Pacific region, and its score is less than the world average (www.heritage.org). 4. Competitiveness. Viet Nam ranks 105 out of 134 countries in the 2008-09 Global Competitiveness Report of the World Economic Forum. Its ranking is substantially lower than that of Korea (13), Taiwan (17), Malaysia (21), China (30) or India (50). Viet Nam enjoys a number of key advantages related to its relatively large domestic market, its labour force characterized by a solid relationship between workers’ pay and productivity in the economy (ranked 17th). But Viet Nam’s overall competitive position is eroded by weaknesses in the quality of institutions as well as hardware and software infrastructure (see below). The poor rating concerning institutions is due to burdensome government regulation and weak auditing and reporting standards, where it is ranked 105th and 106th, respectively. (WEF, 2009). 5. Corruption. The issue is an important business concern for foreign managers in Viet Nam. The corruption perception index (CPI) of the Transparency International ranks 180 countries by their perceived levels of corruption, as determined by expert assessments and opinion survey. In 2008, Viet Nam ranked on 121st position on that list– worse than Egypt (115), India (85) or China (72) after the country has made major headway toward building the foundation to limit corruption. In 2005, Viet Nam passed an Anti-Corruption Law, which requires that high ranking officials report their assets, and the assets of close family relations. A number of significant corruption cases have been prosecuted over the recent years affecting high ranking government and Party officials. New legislative measures are being developed to improve government administrative procedures and to adjudicate complaints against administrative rulings. But, for the time being, corruption is far from being significantly curtailed. Although there are substantial potential benefits from liberalizing key services sectors (section 3.5), these gains cannot be realized by a mechanical opening up of services markets in Viet Nam. Government of Viet Nam has an important role to play in putting in place the preconditions for an efficient set of service industries, bolstering the case for focusing on key inputs like education and institutional) infrastructure. Equally important is the design of reform programmes. A flawed reform programme can undermine the benefits of liberalization. For example, if privatization of state monopolies is conducted without taking actions to foster greater competition, the result may be merely transfers of monopoly rents to private owners (possibly foreigners). Similarly, if increased entry into financial sectors is not accompanied by adequate prudential supervision, the result may be insider lending and poor investment decisions. If policies to ensure wider access to services are not put in place, liberalization need not improve access to essential services for the poor. Managing reforms of services markets, therefore, requires integrating trade opening with a careful combination of competition and regulation. Since FDI is the preferred mode of export of services by Viet Nam’s main trading partners, adjustment will be associated with transfers of ownership. Opposition from affected bureaucracies and from groups with non-economic concerns (such as the impact of ‘denationalization’ on national culture or communist ideology) may further increase the complexity of liberalization efforts. The challenge for policymakers is to enhance foreign competition while ensuring that the need for regulation of service providers is satisfied. This requires that the case for liberalization be distinguished from the need for regulation or 123 regulatory reform. Regulation to achieve fiduciary, public health or cultural objectives should be in place and strengthened where necessary, and should apply equally to domestic and foreign providers (Hoekman, Kostecki 2009). 5.6.2 Trade Promotion Since the national trade promotion initiatives in Viet Nam have been primarily oriented to merchandize exports, the Vietnamese service exporters have enjoyed little government assistance over the past years. It is time that things change and that service exporters be included in government-led initiatives. In particular, the Viet Nam Trade Promotion Agency (VIETRADE) should assist service exporters, not simply merchandize traders. The more so, that the vast majority of Vietnamese service suppliers are small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Given small size it is frequently more cost effective to export from a base in Viet Nam than it is to travel or establish abroad. Therefore, a good portion of the national services export strategy should focus on how to promote Vietnamese services to foreign business in Viet Nam. Overall, the Vietnamese trade support institutions should provide assistance to evaluate: (1) overall marketability of particular exportable services; (2) market trends and size; (3) customary distribution and promotion practices in targeted foreign markets; (4) market entry requirements; (5) regulation, service standards and registration of service providers; (6) key competitors; and (7) potential agents, distributors or strategic partners. Further improvements are urgently needed to support service exports (section 6.4). 5.6.3 State-Trading & Government Procurement Many services in developing countries remain under state ownership and direct state control. One of the priorities, in such cases, has been to ensure universal access to key social services such as sanitation, health, energy, education and water. Also in Viet Nam state is the big buyer and supplier of services. First of all, many services are imported into Viet Nam or exported by state-owned and state-controlled firms (e.g. air transport lines, shipping firms, large tourist establishments, large construction companies). That form of foreign trade transactions, where a state-owned firm purchases or sells services to its client (home-based or foreign) under government supervision or special state-granted privilege is referred to as state trading (Kostecki, 1982). Governments also buy a wide range of services (e.g. military, environmental services, security) for their own consumption rather than not for resale to clients. The later form of government buying is referred to as government procurement. The way in which governments buy such services is regulated by the WTO Agreement on Government Procurement but Viet Nam is not as yet party to that agreement. State trading in services may provide a useful instrument of government trade strategy in the sense that certain exports of services may be developed more easily due to government guidelines issued to state trading service firms. For example, state owned airplane repair workshops or ship maintenance firms may be developed to offer their services to foreign air carriers or shipping companies (section 6.7). Transport firms such as Falcon Shipping Co - a subsidiary of the state-owned Viet Nam National Shipping Lines (Vinalines) - may be encouraged by the state to increase their tanker capacity to transport larger volumes of crude oil worldwide, etc. State owned warehousing capacity provided to foreigners may be extended following state investments. For example, Sotrans – a state-owned warehousing business maintaining its operations in HoChiMinh City, Haiphong, Hanoi, Danang, Cantho, Binh Duong and Dong Nai may be requested to enlarge its services offered to foreign firms. Stateowned banks, such as The Viet Nam Bank for Industry and Trade or The Viet Nam Bank for 124 Agricultural may respond to government guidelines concerning certain international transactions and trade facilitation activities. It should be noted, that many private service enterprises in Viet Nam were encouraged to export in order to survive since the Vietnamese market remained dominated by state-owned enterprises enjoying a monopoly or quasimonopoly position at home. To-day, increasing service exports may require partly curbing the privileged position of state-owned service firms. In the late 1980s and throughout the 1990s many countries privatized state-owned or controlled service firms active in such backbone services as transport and telecom. These reforms increased both merchandize and service trade flows and led to substantial growth in service FDI s (UNCTAD, 2005). To activate its service exports Viet Nam needs more competition in its domestic market. The problem is that keeping inefficient state-owned service firms on life-support holds back healthier options and harms the Vietnamese economy overall. Of course, government subsidies to inefficient firms protect jobs. But, all this does enormous harm; it locks up resources, both human and financial, that could be used more productively by better firms. It also fossilizes service sector’s structures and hinders the development of a more flexible market and a business environment less stifled and more supportive of service export firms – an area where Viet Nam is also sadly deficient. No efficient market economy in Viet Nam can be developed without a degree of destruction of the old style enterprises. Instead of continuing to prop up struggling state-owned companies such as poor quality shipping lines, warehousing and other trade facilitation firms, Viet Nam needs to expose them to more competition at home and to let them go under if they are not successful , so that new, better ones may be created. The same is true of banking since ineffective banking or financial reporting means paralyses of all national economy (proposition 3.5 (i) above). By letting in more foreign banks (i.e. increasing the service imports) Viet Nam my improve the quality and diversity of banking services and improve its state-owned banks which are forced to compete and modernize under competitive pressure (Box 9). Such a mixed arrangement creates unique opportunities for the young generation of the Vietnamese bank employees and entrepreneurs who learn how to play in the world banking community. 5.6.4 Government Investment in Infrastructure Viet Nam’s overall position, measured by the discussed WEF competitiveness ranking is also eroded by weaknesses in the quality of other areas of infrastructure. Viet Nam’s physical infrastructure gets a poor rating overall (93rd out of 134), in particular with respect to port facilities and road infrastructure. Telecom is another weak but essential infrastructure for services (USAID, 2005). Investment in education and management skills is equally important for services and is briefly discussed below. Education. Viet Nam has low rating in higher education and training. Given the growing importance of innovation for the Viet Nam’s competitiveness, the country’s low university enrolment (rated 106th) and the poor quality assessment of Viet Nam’s educational system (ranked 120th out of 134) require urgent reforms (WEF, 2009). Intensive English courses (as well as Mandarin courses) should be introduced in the first years of primary education when children can easily learn. Better professional training – e.g. based on a traditional German model (schooling combined with internship in a chosen trade) - might be offered to teenagers. The quality of university teachers should be up-graded and their selection based on scientific performance rather than political opportunism or personal relations. Private universities which progressively enter Viet Nam force desirable competition in higher education. 125 Management skills. Viet Nam should put emphasis on modifying its managerial culture if it wants to succeed in global service markets. Human capital is the main determinant of success in services since services are essentially “people’s business”. The first issue concerns the managerial culture of state-owned enterprises in Viet Nam. Empirical studies have revealed that the bureaucratic, familial, conservative and authoritarian styles of management were predominant in the state service sector, where the heritage of a centrally planned system is still visible (Quang, T. & Vuong, N. T. 2002). There is too much emphasis is on hierarchical relationships, formal communication and strict control. Even private firms in Viet Nam, with their “familial” style and parental concern for their employees are not well-suited for service trade. Such management style is clearly inappropriate for the today’s competitive environment, particularly in services where the provider-client relationship and the provider’s empowerment are the key to success (Quang, T. & Vuong, N. T. 2002). Service companies, whether state owned, private or joint ventures, should come up with a more people-centered management and increasingly use human resource development and management techniques. Service exporters need to change the key components of their organizations such their structure, people and business process to become modern service provider. They also need quality improvement programs based on conceptual tools such as blueprinting, benchmarking, or service design (for more on these management echniques see, for example, Lovelock & Wirtz, 2004). 5.6.5 Developing Services Offered to Foreign Firms in Viet Nam Many private service providers being SMEs tend to opt for least expensive method of exporting which is selling services to foreigners already in Viet Nam (service category 1 and 2 in Table 5). Vietnamese service firms are exporting a wide range of services, especially via Mode 2 to foreign-owned firms in Viet Nam ( Phan Chi Lan, Riddle, 2005). Such services include obviously tourism but they also comprise services provided to foreign business in Viet Nam; mini-office options (e.g., World Trade Center), security services, catering services, maintenance services, financial reporting, business consulting, and auditing services (MPI and UNDP 2006). In that context, professional services are a category that poses particular challenges. Their main barrier to market entry is recognition of professional credentials, which is not only a matter for trade negotiations but also of appropriate education, experience and domestic regulation. It may be recalled that in a number of the former Socialist countries of Eastern Europe “old style” accountants, “experts” and certified professionals attempted to block access of younger and better educated employees into profession by controlling examination and certification system (Kostecki, 1996, Middlehurst, 1996). What strategy to follow to encourage trade in such services? Four critical problem areas are considered below. 1. Professional skills. Up-grading professional skills for high-skill services such as financial services or auditing is encouraged by allowing the leading business firms (and business schools) to enter the Vietnamese market – which is already the case- an assuring than young generation is able to benefit from that opportunity. Monitor progress of the Vietnamese managers in foreign business organizations in Viet Nam. Favor world-class certification of professional training in Viet Nam. 2. Support for entrepreneurship. Vietnamese entrepreneurship is a sine qua non condition to ensure quality service in Viet Nam. The local providers have to capture foreign customer’s perspective of service quality. Initiate - with government support and the participation of service sector and local associations - training in service quality improvement. Ensure that technical assistance is not limited mainly to 126 regulatory issues. A car that is to run should not only be equipped with sophisticated brakes (dealing with regulations) but it needs, first of all, an engine (business people that make the service trade happen). Good regulation helps but it is not enough. 3. Re-regulation. Review national policies in a way that encourages service companies to contribute to development objectives in service trade through transfer of know-how, and integration of the Viet Nam’s service operators into the world class networks (6.5). Put emphasis on changing the Viet Nam’s business regime (i.e. the “real life” rules of doing business) rather than dealing with purely legal (legalistic) issues. 4. Infrastructure. Invest, or let the FDI partners invest, in infrastructure: transport and telecom, computer networks, professional training and couching. Business support services in Viet Nam will become of truly world-class quality only when the Vietnamese managers of, say, an audit firm, come back home after having managed a European or Japanese operation of his multinational firm. 5.6.6 Developing Services to Visitors in Viet Nam This category comprises services provided to foreign tourists, students or patients. Examples of possible strategic objectives are briefly considered for a range of selected niche markets. Tourism. The natural, architectural sceneries and hospitable population in Viet Nam serve as plentiful tourist attraction. However, given a growing competition from China and other neighbour countries, Viet Nam should develop a diversified tourism offer, such as “green” travel, submarine sports or cultural travel. Develop selected activities; cooking schools, courses of traditional medicine, etc. Technological progress also calls for new approaches. Competition in tourist service is increasingly focused on creating travel resources corresponding to clients’ preferences instead of offering predetermined travel routes. Viet Nam should continue to favor investments in infrastructure which is environment-friendly. Don’t repeat the errors of the mass tourism developments elsewhere. It is difficult to reverse the trend once the nature is destroyed. Encourage Vietnamese style hotel architecture, give, whenever possible, local Vietnamese flavor and invest in quality renovation of the old “colonial” hotels. Favour Viet Nam as a “green” traveller’s destination; encourage foreign developers if they come up with sustainable projects. Such tourism appeals to a growing niche of richer clients. Medical services. A number of developing countries have exported quality medical treatment with some success. Over the recent years Viet Nam was able to attract patients from abroad, (notably Vietnamese living in USA, Canada or Australia), due to low medical fees and traditional medicine. The strategy to establish high-tech specialized Vietnamese centres for health is a promising and realistic strategic objective. 5.7 Ser vicing For eign Owner s of Equipment Tempor ar ily Tr ansfer r ed to Viet Nam It is often suggested that Viet Nam should develop a business and logistics hub for the Greater Mekong sub-region. Two examples of related service trade strategies for a niche market are suggested below. The ship maintenance services. There is a growing demand in the region for ship maintenance services which might be best developed in Viet Nam in partnership with foreign firms. Recent efforts to develop ship-building in Viet Nam speak in favour of this proposal. 127 The air lines support services which range from catering and refuel to plain maintenance and certification activities are another attractive area. Co-operation with foreign investors and airlines (encouraged by the ASEAN Single Aviation Market (SAM)) seems to be an effective mode of entry into that business line. 128 5.8 Developing Tr ade-r elated Ser vices Offer ed to Expor ter s and Impor ter Trade-related services are a strategic priority for Viet Nam (proposal 3.5 (ii) and (iv)). They comprise transport, freight forwarding, trade finance and insurance, trading, customs brokerage and packaging. Viet Nam already has substantial experience in merchandize exports and trade-related services are traded much like goods (transport warehousing). Such services are usually included in merchandize trade development and can be promoted effectively via trade fairs. But, a realistic strategy requires that two issues should be reconsidered. State versus private ownership of service exporters. There are many examples of successful state-owned firms since “former generals” may well handle logistics and commodity exports (The Canadian Wheat Board, state trading in oil, in uranium, etc). However, it is more difficult to ensure an efficient operation in trading (distribution) for consumer goods, small industrial equipment or customs brokerage where state trading is rarely efficient. Box 9 Banking in Viet Nam In spite of some progress, Viet Nam’s banks continue to suffer from limited public confidence, significant regulatory and managerial weaknesses, substantial amount of nonperforming loans, non-compliance with the Basel capital standards, and the absence of reliable auditing. Over the last fifties years the banking system in Viet Nam has consisted of a combination of state-owned, joint-stock, joint-venture, and foreign banks, but the state-owned commercial banks continued to predominate. They suffer currently from high levels of non-profitable loans, most of them to state-owned enterprises. In the mid 2010s Vietnamese government decided to “equitize” all five state-owned banks and promised to boost the transparency of its financial system by establishing a credit rating agency and performance standards for joint-stock banks. However, large foreign banks continue to balance their strong interest in serving multinationals in Viet Nam and frustration with constant restrictions on their other activities. Obviously, it is not to say that no progress – even if slow - takes place. International banks increasingly participate on more equal terms in the Viet Nam’s growth. Vietnamese Government agreed by the end of 2006 to open its financial services sector to global competition under WTO rules. Leading developed country banks—including HSBC, Standard Chartered, Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas—and major Asia-Pacific banks like ANZ Bank, Cathay Bank and OCBC Bank - are strengthening their ties with Vietnamese institutions and opening independent branches in Viet Nam. In 2010, foreign banks shall be permitted to accept local-currency deposits from Vietnamese consumers on the same terms as the Vietnamese banks. Nevertheless, the Vietnamese financial sector continues to be underdeveloped. Compared with banks in Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines and Asia’s other emerging economies, even the biggest Vietnamese banks are small. Assets of the joint-stock commercial banks typically total well below $500 million, less than one-tenth the size of their counterparts in China or other emerging markets. An important challenge in Viet Nam are basic banking services to small-business customers. Source: Andrade, N. Lottner, J. and Roland, Ch. 2008, Wozniak, L. 2007, Bellocq, F.-X. Silve, A. 2008 and press reports. 129 Financial services. Trade finance is essential for export development. Many developing countries recognized that a competitive financial services sector was a condition sine qua non for economic success, and that opening markets to foreign financial institutions would strengthen both the domestic financial systems and trade or FDI activities. The liberalization and de-regulation of the financial sector in Viet Nam is difficult due to fears of the implications of liberalization for weak domestic financial institutions. Another concern revolves around the implications of de-regulated and liberalized financial sector for capital flows, prudential regulation and supervision (Box 9). But, the liberalization of financial services should coincide with financial supervision in order to avoid the fluctuation and financial crises caused by hot money, and the illegal activities, such as arbitrage of exchange or money laundering. Import of banking services is a right strategy for Viet Nam (section 3.5 (iii) and (ii)). Foreign banks in Viet Nam will capitalize on the increasing openness of the Viet Nam’s financial sector. They will bring capital and technical expertise. They will introduce new business models to operate effectively in the still unformed Vietnamese market. Finally, international bankers who originally focused on building their presence in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi are now likely to intensify their presence in the provincial towns and rural areas where the bulk of the potential customers are located. Over the last few years, the Viet Nam’s insurance sector has seen a noticeable growth. Despite its short history, Vietnamese life insurance market has already overtaken Indonesia and Philippines in terms of market penetration. Foreign companies can now operate in Viet Nam and are forming joint ventures with local insurance. A range of foreign life insurers, including large Asian-based insurers (principally from Singapore, Taiwan, China and South Korea), have set up representative offices in Viet Nam and are working toward gaining operating licenses. Investors from US and Europe are actively lobbying for market access. Following Viet Nam’s accession to WTO, foreign insurers expect to be allowed to establish an increased number of wholly owned units and to benefit from declining business restrictions. In spite of the growing FDI, the Viet Nam’s image concerning protection of foreign investors continues to be negative (section 5.1). Viet Nam should, thus, further improve its regulatory framework for foreign investors if their involvement in service sector is desirable. Viet Nam is also lacking appropriate FDI promotion since the country’s Investment and Trade Promotion Centers are not pro-active enough. The most attractive type of investors - the ones that provide the host country with the most significant positive externalities in terms of technology transfer, professional skill development, access to global service networks, trust and long-term commitment - should be convinced to come to Viet Nam. The promotion of Viet Nam as a country of FDI requires a planned, systematic and intensive effort by central government agencies and local authorities. Part of such strategy is the maintenance of a single-desk government service that provides the newcomers with a simple scheme for arranging the necessary local permits or negotiates the terms of government support for various forms of investment such as tax benefits, low-cost land use, commitments concerning investment-related infrastructure in the form of schools, roads, etc. (Brossard, 1998). To market a country as a place of investment also calls for a proactive team of experts offering business information (well in excesses of what is provided by the GATS inquiry points), making presentations abroad to the potential investors, undertaking other forms of promotions 130 (publicity in international mass media, public relations activities such as meetings of the potential foreign investors with the Vietnamese ambassadors or trade representatives (Kostecki, Naray, 2008). 5.10 Developing For eign Client-base for Viet Nam’s On-line Ser vices There is a large window of export opportunity in that type of services but, due to limited space, only two cases are considered – e-commerce and computer-related services. E -commerce. A particularly promising strategy for Viet Nam is to encourage Internet entrepreneurship in export of services. But, empirical studies show Viet Nam is lacking policy environment supportive of e-commerce technologies and transactions and that this deficiency negatively influenced the integration of e-commerce into Vietnamese business. The future government strategy should aim at several objectives. Ensure more reliable connections to the Internet and to telecom networks. Enforce protection of intellectual property rights - a serious problem for companies offering software developments for e-business in Viet Nam. Improve legal regulations on electronic information exchange and reduce the expense of credit card services (a high per cent charge) which continues to discourage e-commerce. Introduce incentives to e-commerce which is continuously hampered by high taxation, telecom fees, and Internet connectivity costs. Introduce a suitable government mechanism to study and better understand the business needs in e-business development. Initiate government program which encourage e-business applications in Vietnamese enterprises lacking capacity to manage projects and to communicate in English (Tran Ngoc Ca, 2006, USAID, 2005). Computer-related services are another area with a particularly good potential as high-valueadded exports. Competitiveness in computer-related service of Viet Nam should be further improved even if the volume and risks of investment in such sector is important (Etemad Sajadi, 2009). Given the presence of multinational corporations from Singapore, which are internationally competitive in computer services, Viet Nam may continue to guide its FDI to such high-value-added sectors. It should also develop its software outsourcing which would permit to build a solid basis for export of computer- related services in overseas market. 5.11 Impr oving the Skills of Labor Inputs Offer ed Tempor ar ily to For eign Clients This form of service export is most frequent for developing countries which typically lack capital but have an abundant supply of labour. The main Viet Nam’s problem is that the temporary migration of workers concerns mainly low-skilled labour. Such workers tend to be poorly paid and protected in many host countries. There were in 2008 more that 500.000 Vietnamese workers abroad (Migrant Workers, 2008). Out-migration of service workers for periods of up to five years might be encouraged by Viet Nam (as suggested by the MPI/UNDP, 2006) but an appropriate government strategy should accompany that move. 131 Box 10 Viet Nam’s Benefits from the Temporary Labour Migration A temporary transfer of labor, if properly managed, may have important benefits for the workers concerned and for Viet Nam as a country. First of all, work abroad may be combined with a program of professional up-grading and learning of a foreign language (also for children) and may offer a valid professional experience. Secondly, the Vietnamese workers employed abroad may learn the social skills of functioning in a foreign organization and operating in foreign markets. (In other terms, the temporary transfer of labour to a foreign country may considerably increase Viet Nam human and social capital). Third, foreign labour usually opts for relocation if there is an economic benefit related to such transfer. In many cases the workers are able to accumulate some capital while working abroad which provides the “seed money” required to open a new business once back home. Finally, form a macro-economic perspective the foreign workers remittance funds provide an important source of foreign exchange and the labour transfer reduces the rate of unemployment especially among the group of younger population that is free to relocate, willing to learn and ready to experience working in an unknown environment. Sources: The ICTSD (Geneva) documentation - www.ictsd.org. What are the critical strategic issues for Viet Nam to improve that form of service exports? The central strategic problem is again that of education and professional training. Professional and social know-how and linguistic skills are the main variables that may be influenced by the Vietnamese government’s support for infrastructure such as education, professional training and couching. Developing good practices to facilitate labour mobility from Viet Nam is another major area of concern. The issues comprises such practical matters as (i) up-grading professional skills to comply with the host country needs and requirements (e.g. for drivers, electricians, construction workers, nurses, etc.), (ii) intensive language courses, (iii) search for potential employees abroad, (iv) government support in contract negotiations, social security problems, health insurance, schooling arrangements for the employees’ children, logistics, visas and other travel arrangements. Viet Nam is already involved in the ASEAN/ AFAS arrangements on temporary labour migration in the region. The situation of Vietnamese workers abroad might be further improved if additional framework agreements on labour transfer were negotiated by Viet Nam (Ghosh,1997). The experience of the Philippine government that has a coherent set of regulations that facilitate the deployment of temporary labour, protect migrant workers while abroad and encourage their return and reintegration might provide a good model to follow by Viet Nam (ISTSD Net, Bridges, 09. 2007). Detailed requests for Viet Nam government action in the area has been presented by the Task Force on ASEAN Migrant Workers, Viet Nam National Consultation on the Protection and Promotion of the Rights of Migrant Workers March 3-4, 2008, Hanoi, Viet Nam (Migrant Workers, 2008). 5.12 Developing Ser vices Offer ed by Fir ms Tempor ar ily Based Abr oad There is a wide range of companies that temporarily provide services to foreign organizations or individuals abroad. The businesses involved include construction companies and architectural services, entertainment providers (music, dance and theatre), restaurant services 132 (e.g. festivals of Vietnamese cuisine abroad), art exhibitions and sport events, transportation, etc. There is little doubt that numerous Vietnamese firms may introduce or expand such export activities. Construction and engineering services are probably among the most important realistic options. Transportation is another window of opportunity. Since only selected set of sector strategy may be considered in this short paper what follows refers only to transportation. Maritime transportation. The major share of the Viet Nam’s trade is carried by marine transportation. The volume of transportation trade from Viet Nam has increased substantially within recent five years. The increasing transportation of cargo and passengers between Viet Nam on one hand and China/ASEAN on the other provides a particularly solid basis for improving the transportation exports. Viet Nam clearly needs to reinforce its logistic infrastructure to be a serious player in the region. Improved port infrastructure could enable Viet Nam to take full advantage of the large China-ASEAN Free Trade Area to develop the scale economy and to find access to low-cost supply of goods and services. A large number of countries maintain restrictions on the use of non-national flag vessels to transport cargo within the national jurisdiction. Many developing countries also are signatories to the 1974 UNCTAD Code of Conduct for Liner Conferences, which allows a share of up to 40 per cent of international liner cargoes to be reserved for national carriers. Such regulations create a favourable context for the development of shipping transportation by Viet Nam since the country’s increasing exports create domestic demand for shipping services. Air transportation. The vision of a competitive and modern air travel industry fits into the Viet Nam’s plan to develop tourism and business travel. The growing middle class in Viet Nam will demand air travel and foreign investors, looking for growing markets, are likely to support such business expansion. But, is it realistic for the Viet Nam to count on successful modernization of Vietnamese air travel in a world where air transportation seems to be one of the most reliable ways to lose money? Any strategy in that area, (which should be developed within the framework of the ASEAN Single Aviation Market (SAM) (section 3.4)) , should consider several important limitations. First, deregulation of air travel worldwide and the rise of Internet ticket sales made it easier for any Vietnamese (but also foreign) upstart to challenge established, large airlines. The result is an increasingly unfettered competition in the world air travel market. Second, the Viet Nam’s air travel is likely to suffer in its international operations from the country’s rather weak airport infrastructure which brings traffic congestion and a logistic nightmare and results in increased costs. Flights from Viet Nam to the United States or Europe require large air planes able to carry considerable amount of fuel and such long-haul flights have to be filled with traffic from numerous small planes arriving at a hub for connections. This creates a major logistic activity requiring numerous runway slots, boarding gates, airplane parking spots, etc. An airline that lacks all of them may not succeed. Finally, the state-run carriers and government policies in Viet Nam stymied air transport in the past. However, a sudden de-regulation may prove tumultuous for a number of reasons. First, to learn the ins and outs of upscale air travel business takes years. Viet Nam might thus prefer to opt for a joint venture approach with a leading airline in the region. It may be wise that the Vietnamese carriers that intend to become international players first learn their trade in the domestic market. In order to succeed it is essential to create a passage experience to 133 rival the world’s best airlines. The Vietnamese human resources are well placed in that respect (see Hofestede’s scores for Viet Nam at www.geert-hofstede.com). However, to develop the skills of the airline staff would require hiring expats (i.e. breaking the present mold in Viet Nam) and hiring managers from leading Asian and European carriers. US pilots and aping the innovations of up-market trail blazing airlines such as Singapore Airlines or Tai Airlines might be also needed. The availability of cheap labor and maintenance in Viet Nam might open the option of low-cost airline. It should be noted, however, that labour cost typically account for 15 - 20 per cent of air travel and, therefore, a competitive edge relying exclusively on such cost is of limited significance. 5.13 Establishing and Expending the Subsidiar ies of Ser vice Fir ms Abr oad Export of services through the establishment abroad is a limited option for a developing country such as Viet Nam. The reason is that establishment in a foreign country requires a lot of capital and the latter is a scare factor of production in low-income economies. Nevertheless, several strategic opportunities of this mode of exports may be of interest to the Vietnamese companies. The first one is a foreign-based distribution chain for Vietnamese products or services which benefit from strong recognition in international markets or may such recognition rapidly establish (certain agricultural products, such as fish and sea food, bamboo products, furniture, quality silk). Such distribution chains (wholesalers or shops) can be developed through a franchising arrangement or another form of partnership with a foreign company that provides capital and managerial know-how. Another feasible expansion strategy is to focus on construction services. The need to maintain a subsidiary abroad may be stimulated by the host country requirement that public works are attributed only to those firms which maintain a local establishment (e.g. Russia). It may be also induced by the Vietnamese firm’s desire to remain close to a given foreign market, especially when networking and other forms of public relations are useful tools for gaining important foreign contracts. Vietnamese firms might also maintain subsidiaries abroad in such areas as computer-related services, engineering consulting, restaurants, medical services or training in martial arts – to mention several plausible examples. International franchising arrangements offer a good expansion formula when shortage of capital is a major bottle neck in business growth (Brown, Kostecki, 1996). 5.14 Optimizing Impor ts of Ser vices to Viet Nam The priority objective of the Viet Nam development strategy for trade in services should be to increase the competitiveness of national economy through import of quality “strategic services” that are in short domestic supply and provide lower cost inputs into the export industry and all domestic production. FDI is a significant mode of supplying non tradable services to Viet Nam and it is in that area that there is the most important import challenge for the country. The domestic opposition in Viet Nam to such investors on the part of domestic firms and labour to the prospect of increased competition from foreign suppliers may not be as strong in services as in goods. Indeed, the gross negative impact on labour employed in services is likely to be lower (given that foreign entrants will often use FDI and employ mostly nationals). The net impact on labour in Viet Nam is likely to be positive (as total employment opportunities expand). Moreover, FDI based service imports are also likely to gain support of Vietnamese businesses that would benefit from higher quality and lower prices services. 134 Supply of services associated with growth in Viet Nam’s industrial sector and implementation of major infrastructure projects continue to result in substantial market opportunities for foreign providers. The selection of priority service imports offered in this paper is based on a desk study and a series of interviews with experts in Viet Nam. Our critical assessment of import priorities for services was guided by three underlying objectives: (i) the service imports should aim at strengthening Viet Nam’s infrastructure by focusing on: banking, telecom and computer-related services, transport, education & training and energyrelated services, (ii) service trade strategy for Viet Nam should also modernize the country’s consumer service base and (iii) should permit importing of intra-sector inputs which can be obtained through more FDI in distribution, franchising in consumer services and imports of environment-related services, medical services, and safety and security services. Telecommunication & computer-related services. Viet Nam’s spending on telecom already ranks among the top ten in the world and the country continues to articulate its commitment to boosting the development of the information and communication technology (ICT) industry, particularly in the software production sector, Internet infrastructure, IT education promotion, and other forms of human capital development. Foreign IT companies find growing service opportunities particularly in sectors associated with Internet development. The Viet Nam’s market for computer-related services has evolved into a two-tier market, whereby foreign computer firms serve foreign clients operating in Viet Nam and national computer companies offer a rather limited package of computer-related services largely to Vietnamese clients. Transportation. Air transportation and shipping are viewed as a prerequisite to rapid national economic growth and further development of exports. But, transport development is dependent on a parallel development of physical infrastructure such as port and air port facilities (section 5.12). Import of services and equipment to develop such facilities is a must. Medical services. Vietnamese hospitals are generally overcrowded; a bed utilization rate of 15 per 10,000 inhabitants is very low by international standards. Consumption abroad (mode 2) provides an important window of opportunity also for imports of health services since an increasing number of Vietnamese people have the ability to travel to other countries to obtain medical treatment in other Asian countries (Comparison with section 5.6 shows a need for intra-industry that comprises both exports and imports – a usual pattern for complex services). Environment -related services. Due to rapid economic growth, population increase, and urbanization, Viet Nam faces significant environmental challenges. Currently, Viet Nam's pollution “hot spots” included solid waste, water and air pollution, with water pollution and solid waste treatment being the biggest challenges to be solved. Training and consultancy services in the area of environmental management and protection will have to grow. Safety and security services. Security services are experiencing a growing demand in sectors such as construction, commercial and residential buildings, banks, municipal fire prevention and fire fighting, maritime facilities and at airport facilities. A significant portion of the demand for safety and security services in Viet Nam is also tied to the development of foreign-invested construction and manufacturing projects (section 5.5). Education & training. There is a significant demand for educational and training development in Viet Nam. Strong industrial growth and expanding foreign investment is generating the need for a variety of workplace skills that are currently in a short supply. Foreign universities 135 are expected to further expand their operations in Viet Nam. Foreign training ventures should increase. Vietnamese students will go abroad to gain education and access to social networks. Franchising of consumer services. Franchising in Viet Nam is a relatively new phenomenon, but one that offers significant commercial opportunities for developed country firms and local franchisees alike. Previously deterred by government restrictions on royalty payments for technology transfer agreements, including franchise license agreements, new laws and regulations are now being formulated that may relax restrictions on franchising activities. Distribution. Modernization of distribution in Viet Nam is likely to accelerate over the coming years (proposal 3.5.(vi)). However, there is certain controversy as small shops and distribution networks provide living for a large share of country’s population with little employment opportunities elsewhere and which is largely part of informal sector. Viet Nam might follow the pattern of China concerning the government strategy towards its distribution sector which is that of progressive opening. Energy-related services. A large number of services ranging from exploration for gas and oil to conservation, energy-saving audits and R&D activities are included in that sector. There is increasing concern all over the world for access to energy supply, energy saving processes and energy impact on the environment and Viet Nam won’t escape that trend. 5.15 Gover nment Action Plan for Viet Nam’s Tr ade in Ser vices: Sever al Suggestions 5.15.1 Awareness Viet Nam’s service exporters suffer from an important awareness gap. For example, the country’s service providers to foreign clients rarely perceive themselves as exporters since, in they view, export involves the transport of products beyond Vietnamese borders. Neither is there a sufficient recognition of the potential role of the service sector in overall economic development of Viet Nam and in the creation of an infrastructure for trade growth (education & training, transportation, telecommunication, etc). Viet Nam needs to raise the awareness of the important role that services should play in its development strategy and correct the misconception that it cannot perform well in exporting other services than tourism and transportation. Identify a set leading government-funded institutions that shall organize seminars and workshop for business and government officials, promote publications and mass media information on service trade opportunities, launch an informative website with frequent up-dates on achievements and options for export business (ITC, 2001), give publicity to successful exporters of Vietnamese services abroad and periodically offer rewards for exceptional achievements in that area. Short term • Set up a pilot model of what could become the common exchange platform for ministries, industry associations, mass media, universities and major business firms interested in service exports. Lead-time: three month; Actors: MPI/ business school • Create a web page on service trade as a link for better internal and external information on the experience of participants and service traders. Lead-time: three months; Actor: MPI (follow-up committee)/business school. Medium term 136 • Establish supporting programs (financing, human resources) and put in place excellence training centers for service firm executives. Lead-time: one - two year; Actors: consortium of training institutions and business schools. 5.15.2 Strengthening Associations of Service Exporters The second task is to strengthen service exporters’ associations in Viet Nam and to integrate them into various consultative or decision-making fora of policy-making, trade promotion and infrastructure development. Short term • Initiate a workshop on how to integrate service exporters into the policy-making process and what are the industry’s major concerns to be solved. Lead-time: five month; Actor: MPI (follow-up committee) Medium term • Establish the Vietnamese Service Forum (VSF) (alone the lines of The Coalition of Service Industries in the US) dedicated to the development of Viet Nam’s domestic and international policies that enhance the global competitiveness of the Viet Nam’s service sector. Lead-time: one year; Actor: founding committee created by the existing service industry associations. 5.15.3 Increasing Export Readiness In most cases the Vietnamese service providers are not export ready. Vietnamese service producers tend to be weak at marketing of their offer and lack experience and qualified management. Specific action plan should be developed in that area by a set of government agencies, management training institutions and state trading enterprises. Technical assistance (ITC, UNDP, bilateral projects) may play a role in that process by offering trainer’s training, coaching of pilot projects and facilitating networking in global markets. The success of a services export strategy depends on other strategies government regulation, trade promotion and state trading which may be a complement to the strategy in terms of support priorities and resource allocation. Short term • Organize a workshop (with the assistance of ITC or a donor agency) for designing training and couching program on improving export readiness in service firms in Viet Nam. Lead-time: five months; Actor: VCCI /training institution. Medium term • Put in place the Service Export Training Program (SETP) within an existing management training centre. Prepare a training material available on-line. Establish links with the leading foreign providers of extension training services to executives in the service industry (e.g. The Centre for Excellence in Services at the University of Maryland or The Center for Services Leadership at the Arizona State University). Lead-time: one - two years; Actor: MIP/ VSF in cooperation with a TA agency. 5.15.4 Promoting Service Exports 137 Most foreign customers only know about the Vietnamese services providers through ‘word of mouth’ in the community of investors, not through their own direct marketing efforts. Vietnamese officials should ensure that their country is known as a supplier of quality services in certain areas and market the potentially competitive service providers in Viet Nam to foreign investors. Indeed, a competitive service infrastructure, including business and professional services, may help foreign investors to keep their costs down if they can use local service inputs and increase Viet Nam’s attractiveness for FDI. An action plan to promote Viet Nam’s service exports can be successfully implemented only with the joint efforts of all the key stakeholders: the Government, trade promotion institutions, sector’s business associations, educational and training institutions, and service enterprises (state-owned and public alike). Short term • Put in place a steering committee on service export promotion involving all the major stakeholders in Viet Nam and define priorities of service export promotion. Lead time: three month; Actor: VIETRADE Medium term • Establish an on-line promotion tool for trade in services containing company profiles, partner search objectives and the forthcoming promotional activities. Lead-time: one year; Actor: VIETADE. • Launch several pilot projects in service export promotion to be implemented by VIETRADE, the Viet Nam representative overseas offices, Viet Nam’s commercial attachés abroad and state-trading enterprises exporting services. Lead-time: one year; Actor: VIETRADE/a donor agency. • Initiate support for companies to improve quality in services and obtain recognized certification as leading service providers. Lead-time: one - two year; Actor: VIETRADE. 5.16 Render ing Regulations Mor e Suppor tive for Expor ts of Ser vices A government team should examine the factors of policy environment and their influences on the development of trade in service. More specifically, the team should: (i) conduct a preliminary assessment of policy environment, including gaps between existing policy environment and the required needs of service exporters, (ii) assess the readiness (capacity and willingness) of Vietnamese business enterprises to develop export of services, (iii) suggest recommendations on policy measure and framework for development of exports of services by Viet Nam’s enterprises. Short term • Organise a workshop on regulatory and other concerns of service exporters. Leadtime: three months; Actor: VCCI. 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WTO (2008) Country Profiles 2008, Geneva, World Trade Organization. 142 CHAPTER 6: SERVICES SECTOR CAPACITY ASSESSMENT: CONSULTATION, COORDINATION AND CAPACITY TO IMPLEMENT SERVICES SECTOR POLICIES, PLANS AND INTERNATIONAL COMMITMENTS 6.1 Intr oduction and Backgr ound In 2005-2006, two major reports were issued to provide guidance on Services sector issues, in the lead-up to the Five-Year Plan 2006-2010 and in the context of the nearly completed WTO accession negotiations: 1. Strengthening the Coordination between the State Management Agencies Responsible for the Service Sector, Ministry of Planning and Investment, and Central Institute for Economic Management, May 2006 2. General Framework for a National Strategy for the Services Sector in Viet Nam up to 2020, Ministry of Planning and Investment and UNDP, June 2006. In 2007, two comprehensive analyses focusing on implications and implementation of WTO Services commitments were conducted under the Viet Nam-EU Multilateral Trade Assistance Project (MUTRAP): 1. SERV-1: Implication Assessment of Viet Nam’s GATS Obligations and Commitments, June 2007 2. SERV-2: Assistance to Scrutinise National Legislation against GATS Obligations and Commitments, January 2008. Together, all these analyses offered a comprehensive overview of the services sector in Viet Nam, and the challenges to be addressed in order to achieve its development potential and meet international commitments. The above and other more recent reports, such as the 2009 Midterm Review of the Five-Year Plan, highlighted and reiterated a number of key success factors. These included the Government’s capacity to: • develop good-quality, evidence-based policies, plans and regulations • coordinate effectively within and among agencies, and with local authorities, to ensure policy, planning and regulatory coherence and consistency – on paper and in practice • consult with stakeholders, including the private sector, to enhance transparency and effectiveness of procedures, rules and regulations • manage implementation of policies, plans and international commitments • supervise, monitor and evaluate results, based on hard data. This chapter looks at progress achieved in these particular areas since 2006 and presents further recommendations and suggestions in the context of developing the CSSSD. Definitions In the Vietnamese national accounts statistical system, ‘Services’ include: 143 • • • • • • • • • • transport, storage, warehousing communications, including information and communications technology finance/banking, insurance business and professional services, including real estate services science and technology, including R&D social services, including education and healthcare tourism and leisure, including hotels and restaurants commerce, including wholesale and retail trade (distribution) community and personal services, including culture, sports, party activities, private services public administration Construction, electricity, gas, water, mining services and manufacturing services are under ‘Industry’. Source: General Framework 2020 report Scope and Methodology Objectives and scope of this assessment The objective was to assist the Government in its preparatory work for the 2011-2015 FiveYear Plan (and vision to 2020-30), by providing assessments and recommendations on official consultation, coordination and capacity to implement international services commitments and services sector strategies. Methodology and approach The approach involved checking previous assessments and recommendations against the current situation to see how things had evolved since 2005; which recommendations had been acted on, which had not and why; which assessments and recommendations were still valid; and what else needed to be done to attain the objectives set out in the Five-Year Plan, the sectoral strategies and trade and investment commitments. This assessment required: 1. desk review of past studies and recommendations (especially those carried out with MUTRAP and UNDP assistance in 2005-2006), the 2008-09 Midterm Review of the current Five-Year Plan, Viet Nam Business Forum submissions, various service sector outlooks, international organisation reports, etc (see list below) 2. interviews of public and private sector representatives to determine action on previous recommendations, progress since 2006, and priorities and challenges for the next five years. Entities consulted: • Ministry of Planning and Investment: Services Sector Department • Ministry of Industry and Trade: Trade Promotion Department • Ministry of Planning and Investment: Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) • Ministry of Planning and Investment: General Statistics Office 144 • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Ministry of Information and Communication: National Institute of Information and Communication Strategy Viet Nam Bankers Association Ministry of Industry and Trade: ASEAN and WTO Departments Viet Nam Association of Certified Public Accountant Viet Nam Lawyers Association Viet Nam Chamber of Commerce and Industry Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment: Planning and Finance Department (Services Task Force Member) Ministry of Planning and Investment: Department of Industrial Zones Management (Telecoms/Finance specialist) State Bank: Banking Development and Strategy Department and Banking Institute (Services Task Force Member) Ministry of Industry and Trade: WTO Services Director, Mr Kanh Ministry of Transport: Planning Department (Services Task Force Member) Ministry of Transport: Legal Department Australian Chamber of Commerce: Chairman MUTRAP PTF services sector experts (transport, telecommunications, banking, securities, insurance, public services, legal framework) Reports reviewed: • Strengthening the Coordination between the State Management Agencies Responsible for the Service Sector, Ministry of Planning and Investment, and Central Institute for Economic Management, Hanoi, May 2006 • General Framework for a National Strategy for the Services Sector in Viet Nam up to 2020, Ministry of Planning and Investment and UNDP, Hanoi, June 2006 • Viet Nam/EU MUTRAP Serv1: Implication Assessment of Viet Nam’s GATS Obligations & Commitments, June 2007 • Viet Nam/EU MUTRAP Serv2: Assistance to Scrutinise National Legislation against GATS Obligations & Commitments, January 2008 • Results-Based Midterm Review Report for Implementation of the Five-Year Socioeconomic Development Plan 2006-2010, Ministry of Planning and Investment (Project 00040722), Hanoi, May 2009 • MPI Services Action Plan 2009-2011, July 2009 (see Attachment 1) • Viet Nam Business Forum submissions (December 2008 and previous years) • MUTRAP PTF experts’ reports on key services sectors • WTO Working Party Report and Viet Nam’s GATS Schedule of Specific Commitments • UNCTAD Viet Nam Investment Policy Review, 2008 • WEF Competitiveness Report 2008-09 • WB Doing Business Report 2008-2009 • Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index 2009 • Articles and reports covering progress on services development and implementation of 145 WTO commitments. 6.2 The Task Ahead: Ser vices-Related Objectives, Tr ends and Pr ior ities Viet Nam increasingly recognises that its future international competitiveness will depend heavily on the quality of its services sector, including infrastructure and human resource development. To this end, the Government has developed services sector strategies and incorporated services priorities in its medium- and long-term socioeconomic development planning, monitoring and review. It is thus taking a more systematic approach to services development. While some entrenched obstacles and problems persist, progress is nevertheless occurring. Recent statements and reviews indicate that the authorities are well aware of the problems that need to be addressed in order to accelerate services development. Many of these relate to the legal framework (quality, consistency, coherence, transparency), central-local government coordination, and institutional/human resource capacity to develop and implement policies and plans effectively. 6.2.1 Services Trends and Targets In 2000, services accounted for 41% of GDP and 20% of employment. In 2006, the objectives were for services to attain 39-40% of GDP and 26-27% of employment by 2008; 42% of GDP and 37% of employment by 2010; and 48% of GDP and 52% of employment by 2020 39. The Mid-Term Review of the 2006-2010 Five-Year Socioeconomic Development Plan 40 in 2008-09 documented high GDP and trade growth in 2006 and 2007 due to structural adjustment, trade facilitation and expansion of value-added export activities. Services expanded in line with GDP growth ,at about 8% p.a. In 2008, services’ share of GDP was still around the 2005 level of 38%, though its share of employment was on target at 26-27%. By comparison, agriculture, forestry and fisheries’ GDP share rose from 21% in 2005 to 22% (it was expected to fall to 18% by 2008), and industry/construction’s share slipped from 41% to 39.7% (the 2008 target was 42.5-43%). This state of affairs was attributed to the global economic slowdown, volatile commodity prices, and internal infrastructural, institutional and human resource weaknesses. The Midterm Review injected a reality check for services growth, lowering the 2010 targets to a more achievable 40% of GDP and 27% of employment. MPI officials said in early July they will set new targets for 2015 and 2020 in early 2010, based on new Five-Year sectoral plans and updated statistical data. A Services Action Plan issued in mid-2009 assigned relevant Ministries specific tasks in this regard and set out ambitious objectives and activities aimed at addressing issues raised in the Review and other reports (see Viet Nam News article below and the 2009-2011 Services Action Plan at Attachment 1). Midterm Review of Services Sectoral Performance in 2006-2008 39 Results-Based Midterm Review Report for Implementation of the Five-Year Socioeconomic Development Plan 2006-2010, Ministry of Planning and Investment (Project 00040722), Hanoi, May 2009 40 ibid 146 1.1.2.2. Growth of Services “Within the service sector, business-supporting services such as transport, storage, communication, finance and banking (except for 2008) have been growing rapidly during the three years in consideration. Nonetheless, the vibrancy of the activities in finance and banking has had only a modest impact on the real economy…The share of the service sector in GDP in Viet Nam has a different implication than the high share in industrial countries, where services are dominated by business supporting services such as information technology, communication, finance and banking, insurance, consultancy, research and development, which enhance enterprise competitiveness. In Viet Nam services are dominated by petty trade and low-skilled low-value-added activities to meet consumer needs. These services generate employment for unskilled labourers who are not qualified for jobs in factories or high valueadded services. “High value-added business-supporting services which are critical for businesses in enhancing competitiveness of the whole economy remain underdeveloped and are not capable of meeting the needs of the economy. Consequently, costs of intermediate inputs such as transportation and business services remain high.” Source: Results-Based Mid-Term Review of the Five-Year Socio-Economic Development Plan 2006-2010, pages 9-10 6.2.2 Evolving Priorities The 2006 General Framework for a National Services Strategy 41 said it was critical to give top priority to services sector development and to change political and economic perceptions – ie, to enhance awareness that services are vital to increasing competitiveness and delivering industrialisation. Consultations in mid-2009 indicated that this transformation was occurring. One official noted: “Before MUTRAP II, people only thought of goods when they heard the word ‘trade’. Now they also think of services. As a result of MUTRAP II, government people now recognise the need for institutions to take into account services, relate them to trade, and develop relevant statistics.” Services sector priorities are evolving as the economy develops and as understanding grows regarding the role of services in development. The 2006 General Framework (pg 76) suggested prioritising the services sectors with significant multiplier and ‘breakthrough’ potential for overall economic development: telecommunications/ICT, education and training, and business services. The Government’s priority list at the time comprised telecommunications, finance, air and maritime transport, construction and tourism. In early 2009, the Midterm Review of the 2006-10 Five-Year Socioeconomic Development Plan suggested that priority should go to backbone and business support services (i.e., transport, storage, communications, power, financial services, logistics, professional services, etc). In mid-2009, a Ministry of Industry and Trade official said that the government’s services priorities for the next Five-Year Plan should be the high-impact sectors that needed extra help 41 General Framework for a National Strategy for the Services Sector in Vietnam up to 2020, Ministry of Planning and Investment and UNDP, Hanoi, June 2006 147 to achieve their development-impact potential. These were education and training, business services, transport and logistics. He said most of the other leading services sectors – telecommunications, banking and financial services, and tourism - seemed to be developing well enough on their own. This view was shared by most of the government officials and private sector representatives consulted. In addition, the Ministry of Planning and Investment indicated that the Government’s role in services sector development will increasingly focus on the enabling environment, including: developing an appropriate regulatory framework and enforcement mechanisms orienting education and training to meet the need for qualified, flexible and competent professionals and technicians ensuring reliable, efficient, interconnected and reasonably priced backbone services such as transport, power and communications. Given these areas’ strong synergies and their powerful impact potential, effective interagency coordination - horizontally and vertically – during the next development phase, will be crucial for Viet Nam’s industrial, social and economic development. Service Sector at Core of Economic Strategy (Viet Nam News, 6 July 2009) The Government has issued an Action Plan for service sector development for 2009-11 focusing on legal tools, financial sources, human resources, the environment and natural resources. The move calls for greater efforts to finalise the legal system and mobilise all available sources, both at home and abroad, to develop the economy in general and the service sector in particular. It also emphasises the improvement of the quality of the labour force and guaranteeing that economic development will be in harmony with environmental concerns and efforts to conserve natural resources. The above requirements will be applied to a large range of services: finance and customs procedures, banking, stock exchange, legal consultancy, trade arbitration, transport, science and technology, information and communication, employment and human resource development, distribution of goods, construction, urbanisation, real estate development, and environmental protection, as well as cultural, social, sports and tourism services. The Ministry of Finance has been asked to finalise an export credit insurance project, diversify access to public services and upgrade the operations of public administration agencies. The Ministry of Transport has been assigned to outline a master plan on transport and associated support services, as well as a project on express coastal passenger transport services, the Tan Son Nhat airport and the express road system. The State Bank has been asked to design projects on launching cooperative banks and developing and improving the quality of management of non-banking credit operations. The Ministry of Labour, War Invalids and Social Affairs is to map out a 10-year strategy and five-year plan on employment, vocational training and poverty reduction. It is also to finalise a project to help poor districts develop labour exports in an effort to speed up poverty reduction and sustainable development in 2009-2015. (See Attachment 1) 148 6.3 Pr ogr ess since 2006 and Suggestions for Action 6.3.1 Progress in Implementation of WTO GATS Commitments A CIEM review of progress on implementation of WTO commitments two years after Viet Nam’s January 2007 accession portrayed mixed results. 42 It noted that while the business environment and legislative framework have shown definite signs of improvement, a number of obstacles must be overcome if the country is to benefit fully from its WTO membership. A key problem – according to CIEM and other officials - is confusion over the scope and meaning of services commitments. This confusion has led to fragmented and frequently overrigorous interpretation of rules, especially regarding foreign investment. If one does not understand the meaning, then the options are to (1) delay responding indefinitely, (2) simply say no, or (3) apply the maximum restriction. This is particularly pronounced at the district and local levels, but CIEM noted that even the Ministry of Planning and Investment and the Ministry of Industry and Trade have been known to give different opinions regarding certain commitments. This problem is largely due to lagging regulatory action (“lack of clear and specific regulations”), professional and technical capacity limitations, and a lack of understanding of WTO commitments and the potential development benefits of WTO membership. “Some (state agencies in charge of licensing) consider the WTO a burden for the country, not an opportunity to promote investment and national development.” CIEM also pointed out that “complicated and cumbersome administrative procedures are still a problem that Viet Nam needs to address to build a transparent, open and friendly investment environment”. These findings echo those of the MUTRAP Serv-2 report of January 2008: CIEM recommended establishment of a joint committee under the National Standing Committee, comprising experts from MPI, MoIT and related state agencies, to deal with the issues arising during the market opening process. This MUTRAP assessment agrees with this recommendation, and proposes a sample model for the Government’s consideration (See Trade Policy Consultative and Implementation Mechanism chart at Attachment 3.) In related discussions, CIEM and other entities also recommended training officials at all levels on the technicalities of WTO and other international agreements, so that they will be more confident in implementing and applying the commitments. This MUTRAP assessment supports these recommendations, and offers concrete suggestions under ‘Capacity Building’, Section 4 of this report. 42 Building Blocks Laid for WTO Success, http://vietnamnet.vn/service/printversion.vnn?article_id=1148729, Nguyen Dinh Cung, Director, Central Institute for Economic Management’s Department for Macroeconomic Policy, VietNamNet Bridge, 9/01/2009 149 Multilateral Trade Assistance Project (MUTRAP II) Viet Nam – SERV-2 Assistance to Scrutinise National Legislation against GATS Obligations and Commitments January 2008: Executive Summary (excerpts) “The task of implementing GATS legal obligations and commitments into national law is extremely vast and difficult. “Viet Nam has already made significant progress with legal implementation (ie, lawmaking) of its general GATS obligations, eg, on MFN treatment, transparency obligations relating to publication of services legislation and regulation, payments and transfers, licensing procedures, etc. Despite the legislative progress achieved on general GATS obligations …doubts remain regarding the practical application…. uncertainties and lack of transparency of administrative procedures, burdensome licensing and sub-licensing requirements being introduced by new laws and regulations, slow and expensive procedures in the judiciary, and other practical issues affecting the predictability and reliability of their business environment. “Implementation gaps remaining in the legal and regulatory reform process: • • • • • • • • • Many gaps are not purely technical issues. Sometimes they stem from hesitation to introduce a more liberal trade regime. Sometimes they result from unresolved policy issues (eg, distribution). Despite extensive publications and awareness-raising exercises on the GATS conducted in different MUTRAP activities, there still seems to be a lack of understanding in many quarters of the GATS and its implications. For instance, confusion seems to reign on whether GATS commitments represent a floor or a ceiling for future liberalisation. It is clear, however, that GATS commitments constitute the starting point and not a ceiling for further liberalisation. (Note: The Trade Minister has publicly reiterated this many times.) Many seem to believe that ‘applying GATS law’ (ie, commitments) precludes better treatment of foreign service suppliers than the level committed to in the GATS. This kind of trade-restrictive policies runs against the objectives of the GATS which clearly aim at “progressively higher levels of liberalisation of trade in services” rather than more restrictive practices. There seems to be a tendency to apply the narrowest possible interpretation of GATS commitments, which in some instances risks deliberalising the level of market access that prevailed before WTO accession. There appears to be a misconception that compliance with the GATS is achieved where nothing in the existing legislation contradicts GATS obligations and commitments. However, what is often required are positive changes to be made to the legislation. While transparency requirements are met though publicaion of legal texts, the proliferation of regulations on the same subject results in additional opaqueness. In many instances the required amendments of existing laws for GATS implementation are carried out through… decrees, circulars, letters, etc, “providing guidance” on implementation. This results in legal uncertainties and lack of predictability regarding the treatment of foreign services and service suppliers. The modification of laws through ‘guidance’ also questions the value of legal clauses included in various laws providing for the prevalence of WTO/GATS obligations and commitments over incompatible legal provisions. Improved intragovernment coordination and cooperation for implementation of GATS obligations. Although the lack of such coordination has been recognised in many earlier 150 international and national analyses and discussions (eg, in a major study by the Ministry of Planning and Investment), the problem seems to persist. Good intragovernment coordination is particularly necessary in the services area…because the GATS affects…almost all Government Ministries, and Viet Nam as a Member of the WTO needs to be able to take a united position … on all GATS issues.” 6.3.2Progress in Coordination and Management of Services Sector Development Section 3.2 examines progress on the recommendations that were made in the 2006 report on improving coordination among Government agencies involved in services sector development. This section looks at: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Government as facilitator Planning Policymaking Participatory approaches and consultation Interagency coordination Quality control and role of professional associations Implementation and enforcement, Monitoring and evaluation Statistics and indicators. Each item introduces relevant recommendations from the 2006 Coordination study, examines progress in light of the current situation, and proposes recommendations for action. In many cases, the 2006 recommendations are still valid and are reinforced by the Midterm Review’s ‘Concrete Policy Solution’ proposals, which this report fully endorses. The Midterm Review reaffirmed that enduring institutional, infrastructural and human resource weaknesses were restricting the economy’s capacity to absorb capital, with important flow-on effects. It called for intensified action to: − − − − − − − − − − build backbone and business support services (transport, storage, communications, power, financial services, logistics, professional services, etc) streamline administrative procedures strengthen skills through targeted vocational training and higher-quality education inject new technology raise product quality diversify manufacturing and agribusiness activities increase efficiency of investment through more horizontally and vertically integrated policy planning, implementation and review fortify supervision of state management agencies and SOEs strengthen discipline and accountability in project management (eg, construction and public investment) improve fiscal performance and macro stability. 151 Midterm Review of the 2006-2010 Socioeconomic Development Plan Relevant Policy Recommendations: Pages 120-125 5.3.2. Concrete Policy Solutions 5.3.2.1 Public Expenditure Policies There (is a) need to strengthen supervision (and) M&E of public projects to improve investment efficiency; to apply penalties of sufficient deterrence to cases of embezzlement, waste and violation of laws and regulation. The owners of public investment projects as well as the owners of state assets should be clearly defined with a view to strengthening their accountability for investment and assets. Agencies implementing public projects should send progress reports containing sufficient information for comprehensive evaluation of public investment on a regular basis to MPI. An independent agency should be established to supervise and monitor SOE activities. In order to reduce current expenditure, implementation of lump-sum budget grant to qualified administrative units and the transformation of public service delivery units to those operating in accordance with Decree No 115/2005/ND-CP should be accelerated. In order to maintain the work quality, it is necessary to conduct regular M&E of work results, attaching the allocation of funding for the later period with the level of plan accomplishment of the previous period. Targeting efficiency should be improved. In the long term, it is necessary to implement far-reaching salary reforms within the state sector to create sufficient motivation for public servants and officials to perform their duties in a creative, efficient and responsible manner. 5.2.3.2 Mobilising Resources Regarding FDI, there needs to promptly implement some more fundamental measures such as change of thoughts and perception, and proposal of new viewpoints on attraction and utilisation of foreign investment capital; research on strategies to mobilise and monitor the use of FDI should be conducted; appropriate policies should be adopted to eliminate undesirable projects as well as to encourage necessary projects, paying attention to quality of investment (chosen sectors, investment partners, technological competency, usage intensity of natural resources and scarce resources, forward and backward linkages with domestic enterprises, spillover effects, environmental-friendliness, etc), raising awareness of investors on corporate social responsibility, thus developing appropriate criteria to appraise FDI projects as well as projects financed by other sources. The approval of all projects must be based on these criteria. 5.3.2.3. Macroeconomic Policymaking Coordination in proposing and implementing policies in a close and consistent manner between ministries and branches (SBV, MOF, and MPI) should be strengthened. 5.2.3.4. Sectoral and Enterprise Policies In order to have the best options with minimum costs, appropriate policies should be adopted to guide FDI into areas that remove factors hindering development and help capital absorption capacity of the economy through appropriate encouraging policies (such as partnership, BOT) so as to reduce the burden for budget expenditure. In this connection, infrastructure development is one area that allows taking advantage of a large investment source to remove 152 bottlenecks, thereby Viet Nam will become more attractive to foreign investors. Similarly, appropriate policies should be introduced to encourage FDI inflows to the low-value-added areas to remove the second bottleneck of the economy. Programmes improving competitiveness for all sectors of the economy, particularly those with weak competitiveness, should be implemented. Policies should be in place to encourage raising product value- added in all sectors through improving human resources, upgrading technology, improving access to source technology, long-term collaboration with leading partners in relevant fields, diversification and renovation of products. Policies boosting development of sectors where Viet Nam has potential or comparative advantage should be introduced. Linkages with foreign-owned enterprises should be utilised better, and deeper participation in regional production network should be promoted. Business supporting services such as finance, credit, science and technology should be strongly encouraged; policies to attract investment into these sectors should be adopted. 5.3.2.5 Social Policies Focus should be made on rapid development of human resources, especially long-term vocational training and highly-skilled human resources to meet development needs in order to attract investment projects that use a high level of technological competency and generate products with high value added. 5.3.2.6 Institutional Policies The quality of the participatory approach in the process of making laws and legal documents should be improved. Public consultation must be made right from the period of policy concept formulation to obtain consensus on basic ideas of the policy. If consensus cannot be secured for a policy, the drafting of laws should not start. It will help prevent waste of resources for drafting a law which cannot be issued because the consensus cannot be secured or for drafting a law which cannot contribute to development. Both quality and enforcement of legal documents should be improved. Accordingly, legal documents must clearly specify implementer(s) and associated forms of incentive sufficient for encouraging implementation and forms of punishment sufficient for deterrence purpose. More attention should be paid to supervision and monitoring of implementation of policies. Policies should be reviewed, assessed and revised regularly so that they can meet the need of reality. The M&E system should be enhanced by giving clear functions and mandates on monitoring and evaluating the performance of state agencies to a relevant state agency, and the instruments should also be provided to them to enforce the decisions. The information from state auditors and from M&E reports must be used for making policy decisions and allocation of public resources. The auditing system should be strengthened so that all state administrative agencies can be audited annually to show their performance. The investment management decentralisation mechanism should be reviewed, evaluated and improved to address problems suffered in public investment management. Capacity should be built for the staff involved in project appraisals at local levels, linking the authority of project investment approval to responsibility and remuneration and punishment system. Delegation of state management authorities should be in balance with their capacity. The master planning work should be reorganised and reconsolidated to make master plans useful to local and sector development. Quality of master plans should be enhanced in every aspect, and their effectiveness should also be strengthened. All master plans should have a 153 long-term vision, be comprehensive, practical and feasible to provide fundamental inputs for preparing plans. Master plans should be backed up by evaluating all economic, social and environment issues and linking to forecasts of key inputs and factors for social economic development (eg, capital, land, human resources, especially underutilised or scarce), as well as outputs (domestic and foreign demand for relevant commodities and services, prices). All this will help to make the best use of the country’s potential and diminish undesirable impacts. The master plan of a sector or province should be made in connection and linkages with other sectors and provinces as well as with the national master plan with a view to identifying an optimal division of activities to explore local comparative advantage to the most extent possible. A relevant legal framework should be in place to enforce implementation of master plans, as well as to supervise and monitor their implementation. Content of master plans should be mainstreamed into five-year and annual plans of each ministry and province. 5.3.2.7 Other Policies Information disclosure and transparency, especially information for policy analysing, backing up business plans of enterprises and for the public to make the right judgment about macroeconomic situation, should be ensured. An information-sharing culture should be developed to improve coordination among state administrative agencies. All the key and possible management decisions of state administrative agencies and their policies, development plans and strategies should be disclosed on their websites. The policy analysis and forecast capacity of public servants in ministries and agencies should be improved and employed in policy advice. 154 6.3.2.1Government as Facilitator and Chief Coordinator 2006 MPI/CIEM Report on Strengthening Interagency Coordination Recommendation: In order to ensure good coordination in policymaking, the facilitating role of the Government should be clarified... and should be stipulated clearly in the Amended Law on Government Organization, based on the principles of good governance. The mandate of the Government, ministries, and agencies should be defined, ensuring transparency and accountability in their decision making, with power given alongside responsibility. The Ministry of Planning and Investment says there has been good progress in this area. “Now each sector is managed sectors. Since 2008, numerous new functions. MPI’s role in horizontally and vertically has been restructured. by one Ministry - though one Ministry can manage several decrees have been issued to clarify mandates and formulate coordinating and monitoring planning and implementation been clarified. And the Ministry of Industry and Trade has However, awareness of the mandates and functions within Ministries and the private sector still needs work.” Awareness Building In preparing the next Five-Year Plan, a nationwide services awareness-building campaign aimed at government agencies and the business community could highlight in an innovative and attention-attracting fashion the development opportunities that Viet Nam’s international services commitments offer and the challenges they present. With a better understanding of the priorities, issues, interlinkages and roles, both sides can approach services issues with more confidence. Such a campaign should: • highlight the crosscutting nature of all services sectors and the need for a coherent, joint development effort • identify clearly and concisely how government and business, individually and together, can maximise the opportunities and deal with the challenges (particularly in the key priority areas) • share comparative experience and success stories to motivate people and inspire change. 155 6.3.2.2Planning 2006 MPI/CIEM Report on Strengthening Interagency Coordination Services sector plans need to be developed with vision, coordination, and clearly defined and prioritised objectives linked to solutions and to existing strategic programmes and other resource allocations. Recommendation: The planning process should be changed to ensure greater participation, transparency, empowerment and accountability in planning. In order to improve vertical coordination between levels, especially between the central and provincial levels, resultbased planning should be introduced. Objectives in socioeconomic development plans should be identified clearly, structured by priorities to prevent inefficient investment. Plans should be monitored and evaluated closely so that any problems can be identified and resolved on a timely basis and funds can be reallocated if necessary. Planning should be linked to budgeting. Given the fragmented, crosscutting nature of services sectors, no ‘one size fits all’ solution exists. Any national services strategy would have to combine general and sector-specific SWOT analyses, medium- and longer-term objectives, priorities, policy issues (eg, role of private sector and FDI; education and training, trade) and action plans, with clear mandates, milestones, monitoring and evaluation, and carrots and sticks. The Programme of Action 2009-2011 issued in July 2009 sets out clear objectives and tasks for each Ministry in developing strategies for the next Five-Year Plan (2011-2015). In developing their plans, agencies should adopt good practices to ensure effective interagency coordination, broad participation of the private sector and local authorities, and transparency through publication and notification. They should also adopt results-based planning approaches, with realistic, measurable milestones and indicators that can be ‘owned’ by the responsible implementers. MPI, as the overall coordinator, will be responsible for driving and enforcing the planning process. The proposed Services Policy Consultative and Implementation Mechanism (see 3.2.5) could play a useful role in this context. 156 6.3.2.3 Policymaking 2006 MPI/CIEM Report on Strengthening Interagency Coordination In Viet Nam legal documents are usually drafted by the agency whose functions and mandates are regulated by that legal document, without a policy concept being agreed. This often leads to problems of consistency and impartiality. (A ‘policy concept’ is more comprehensive than a ‘law proposal’, and ideally promotes the longer-term national interest. Its implementation may require several legal documents and initiatives.). Recommendation: A two-step approach: (1) agree the policy concept (and objectives) and (2) then start drafting legal documentation. Recommendation: Draft implementing regulation (and enforcement mechanisms) while preparing the legislation. Such an approach would assist planning and coordination and lead to greater consistency and quality. Regulatory policy is a key determinant of services sector development. Appropriate and responsive policy and regulatory interventions can open markets, promote consumer confidence and lead to greater competition and efficiency. Poorly designed or unnecessary policies and regulations hinder innovation, increase costs, protect inefficient incumbents and limit consumer choice. WTO commitments prescribe good practices in creating and amending legal frameworks, through proactive consultation, publication and notification. Viet Nam has subscribed to these, as per Paragraph 518 of the WTO Working Party Report, October 2006. While reiterating throughout the report that the uneven quality and enforcement of laws and regulations was partly responsible for the problems, the Midterm Review lauded the gains in public servants’ commitment to improve the quality and issuance of legal documents. It expressed the hope that this commitment would focus increasingly on clarity, consistency and enforcement, suggesting that more effective carrots and sticks would be required to deliver the ‘rule of law’. “The legal framework is not complete…not clear, not specific, not logical, not consistent, not transparent, not predictable, not effective and not efficient. The enforcement of low-quality regulations is very troublesome, costly, time-consuming and requires a lot of effort, particularly with regard to investors and enterprises…and create opportunities for rentseeking by incumbents, investors and entrepreneurs who abuse regulations to serve their interests and relations other than serving and protecting the interest of the whole society.” (Midterm Review, page 54) While consultation on drafting of legal documents is being progressively institutionalised since it was made mandatory in the amended Law on the Enactment of Legal Documents in 2002 and 2005, a critical transparency gap still exists at the policy-formulation stage. This results in less-than-optimum input during the legal drafting stage, due to lack of understanding of the specific policy objectives and their link to the national interest. This is not a new issue; it has been raised in several reports in 2004-2006, and it arose numerous times during consultations in July. 157 It is therefore recommended that the government take steps to substantiate policy decisions and justify why a particular regulatory option was chosen, and communicate this information to all the people involved in drafting and commenting on legal documents. Many countries have institutionalised this form of policy justification, as a necessary prerequisite to law drafting. Implementation also remains a challenge. It often takes 2-5 years to put into effect the implementing regulation, and enforcement mechanisms can take even longer. It is therefore recommended (as it has been in the past) that officials draft the implementing regulation and enforcement measures at the same time as the relevant law. In addition to speeding up the process, this would result in more appropriate indicators for monitoring and evaluation of regulatory effectiveness. It would also streamline coordination. Policy and Regulatory Good Practice Checklist To substantiate the need for new policy and regulatory action, the following seven points should be covered in documents circulated to policymakers, drafters of legal documents and the constituencies being consulted: 1. The problem or issues that gave rise to the need for action 2. The policy objectives - to address the problem/issue, and how these meet the National Interest 3. The options (regulatory and/or non-regulatory) that could viably achieve the desired objectives 4. The impact of each option (costs, benefits and risks) on consumers, business, government, and the specific constituency (easy-to-use assessment tools available) 5. The consultation methodology and sum-up of feedback 6. The recommended option (justify why it was chosen) 7. The proposed strategy to implement and review the preferred option (action plan for regulation, enforcement and indicators for monitoring and review of effectiveness). 158 6.3.2.4Participatory Transparency Consultation, Information Sharing, Knowledge Management, 2006 MPI/CIEM Report on Strengthening Interagency Coordination The legal framework for services is very complex, given the sector’s cross-sectoral nature. Laws, decrees, circulars and decisions are issued, without much coordination or consultation, by line ministries, agencies and provincial governments. The result is poor transparency and consistency (some provisions actually contradict each other). Regulatory oversight and implementation are weak. Recommendations: • The planning process should ensure greater participation, transparency, empowerment and accountability. • Regulation on information-sharing should be developed to facilitate a common understanding of issues and common commitment to action. • To enhance participation, and in consideration of new legislation (Resolution 05/2005/NQ-CP), it is time to renovate the organizational structure of ministries to promote autonomy of public service delivery institutions and encourage the participation of private sector and foreign investors in service delivery. In preparing the annual socioeconomic plan, in which services features prominently, MPI consults with other agencies, provincial agencies and SOEs to secure service sector plans, indicators, etc. The consultation process is formal (written requests and written answers), but to overcome obstacles posed by long delays in getting replies to written requests, in practice it is more informal. Officers often contact other officers in line agencies, etc, to get input. A working draft is then sent around for formal comment and corrections. MPI also convenes roundtables with academics and business (eg, Viet Nam Business Forum) to discuss development issues. MPI does not consult the private sector ‘formally’ as part of the socioeconomic planning process. It expects the line agencies to do so in developing their sectoral plans. However, with some exceptions, line agencies rarely conduct formal consultations with the private sector (much less foreign invested firms) in developing plans; rather, any consultation usually takes place after a plan is designed. Business people lament the lack of transparency in planning, especially at the local and provincial levels. Many governments find it difficult to obtain useful comments. In fact, governments have to seek comments proactively if they really want and need them. Publishing ‘invitations to comment’ in national and local newspapers can be effective in some instances – if only to encourage interested parties to look at the website. Hosting public hearings at specific stages of policymaking can also be a useful way of gathering comments. For instance, the Government could take a more proactive approach visà-vis the Viet Nam Business Forum, using it as an integral part of the consultative process. In addition, commissioning analyses by academics, research institutions and business associations is a good way to collect views. 159 Seven Principles for Best Practice in Policy Consultation 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Continuity - Consultation should be a continuous exercise starting early in the policy development process. Targeting - Consultation should be widely based to capture the diverse stakeholders affected by the proposed changes. This includes relevant Government departments and agencies, subnational and local governments, and other stakeholders in the private and nongovernment sectors. Timeliness - Consultation should start when the policy objectives and options are being identified. Throughout the consultation process, stakeholders should be given sufficient time to provide considered responses. Accessibility - Stakeholder groups should be alerted to the consultation and fully informed on the proposals via the range of means appropriate to each group (eg, announcements in press, website postings, email, normal mail, faxes, telephone calls, etc). Transparency - Policy agencies should explain clearly the objectives of the consultation process, the objectives and means of the policy changes, etc. In the end, they should provide feedback on how they have taken consultation responses into consideration (see Policy and Regulatory Good Practice Checklist at 3.2.3). Consistency and flexibility - Consistent consultation procedures can make it easier for stakeholders to participate. However, this must be balanced with the need for consultation arrangements to suit the circumstances of the particular proposal under consideration. Evaluation and review - Policy agencies should evaluate each consultation process with a view to making future exercises more effective. Source: http://www.finance.gov.au/obpr/consultation and other good practice guides. 6.3.2.5Interagency Coordination Mechanisms 2006 MPI/CIEM Report on Strengthening Interagency Coordination Decree #144/2005/ND-CP, issued in 2005, regulates coordination among state management agencies in formulating and overseeing the enforcement of policies, strategies and plans. All central and provincial state management agencies, including agencies responsible for the service sector, are regulated by this Decree. The Office of Government (OOG) plays an important role in overseeing this coordination. The main coordination practice...in drafting legal documents, strategies and plans and executing other state management functions is through the establishment of a task force or drafting team, getting written comments on issues and holding consultation meetings or workshops. Task force members and drafting teams are often high-ranking managers who are often too busy to participate in coordination works. Coordination via IT and information networks and fora are rarely used. Recommendation: The report suggested overcoming entrenched attitudes and practices by 160 adopting new approaches to coordination. For example: IT networking has advantages such as rapid communication and providing a forum to share views. However, it requires adequate facilities, such as computers and websites and capacity. IT and other networks could be established, for example, to link closely related service sectors where good coordination is vital for sector development (eg, banking, finance and telecommunications/ICT). Consultations in mid-2009 indicated that little change has occurred since 2006. Everyone agrees that coordination is necessary, but it is evident that efforts to date have not worked. MPI officers agreed that IT networking should be adopted and indicated they would be grateful for assistance to implement such networks for services consultation and coordination. Several people consulted wondered if the various ministries dealing simultaneously with 11 procedures related to administrative reforms were coordinating effectively, suggesting that the Office of Government, as Chief Coordinator, could use its power and upgrade technology to that end. Generally, coordination remains weak, even among units in a department. This is historical – every unit, department, agency has its own targets, and even though there may be overlaps, they do not share information or coordinate on data collection to ensure consistency. This ‘silo’ system is difficult to break down as the environment is not conducive to changing entrenched, familiar ways. For example, many younger officers receive good training overseas (eg, at top universities in the US, Europe, etc) and come back with good ideas and good intentions. However, they are quickly absorbed by the traditional working culture and soon fall back into line. Even when they do try to put into practice what they have learned overseas, some bosses still want to do things the old way, so motivation quickly wears off. In planning and preparing studies, “the common practice is to write a document and circulate it for written comment. Sometimes this process is complemented by a workshop or seminar. Getting comments is not easy. People don’t like to put things in writing, unless it is formal and official. The higher officials don’t even use email regularly, so electronic ways of seeking comments is not developed. The biggest problem is that people don’t ‘see’ each other when seeking feedback; they don’t exchange views in person; they don’t talk to each other on a regular basis.” Consultations on this issue revealed across the board that people got better input when they asked for it in person on the spot – ie, by phone or face to face. Therefore, mechanisms need to be developed that will encourage this sort of interaction as part of the consultation process – without bogging people down in more useless meetings. Working groups or task forces exist, but usually the level is too high and too many people are involved to arrive at clear decisions. Even when it is the right level and number, they still may not take decisions, because the practice is for decisions to be taken on high. Even when a recommendation is sent up for decision, the resulting decision may not reflect the recommendations at all, demotivating those who compiled the recommendations. Proposed Consultative and Coordination Mechanism In the past, for WTO accession, a Working Group on Services was led by MPI, with some 20 members from line ministries and SOEs. However, since accession in January 2007, no effective working group has existed. In December 2008, an interagency Task Force on Services was established to advise on the Services Sector Strategy and to oversee and drive its 161 implementation. Headed by the Vice-Minister of MPI, it is comprised of Directors and Deputy Directors of a wide variety of official bodies and SOEs. It has met once, just after its establishment. Its members do not have a clear idea of its role and task. Perhaps this will be clarified once the Services Action Plan 2009-2011 gets underway. In the meantime, the preference appears to be for a tighter, more results-oriented Services Consultative and Implementation Group to deal with the bottlenecks and other issues affecting services sector development. It is therefore recommended that MPI establish a permanent Services Policy Consultative Group (see sample chart at Attachment 2). It should be directed by an official with decision-making authority, supported by a small group of highlevel executives who will delegate work on specific pressing issues to results-oriented working groups comprised of relevant stakeholders. The Consultative Group’s Work Plan should be time-bound and focus on finding innovative, yet realistic and sustainable, solutions to key issues and bottlenecks. One of the Group’s tasks should be to foster the development of local analytical capacity in services sector policy issues by regularly commissioning think tanks in academia, ministries and institutes to conduct research and provide advice on pressing issues. Regarding a Work Plan, the Consultative Group could, for example, delegate Working Groups to: • conduct an audit of education and training needs for the 21st Century in consultation with industry, the professions and educational institutions, and deliver recommendations for change • explore how professional and industry associations could play a stronger role in improving and assuring quality standards and enforcing ‘codes of conduct’ • develop a more rigorous and transparent approach to services sector policymaking, lawmaking and enforcement, to facilitate implementation of the next Five-Year Plan (find ways to institutionalise in practice the use of internationally recognised ‘good practices’ in policy and regulation development, consultation and interagency coordination) • explore how a strategic FDI-attraction policy could accelerate the development of the priority areas through well targeted injections of investment, technology and skills • document and provide solutions for impediments to implementation of WTO services commitments (see CIEM review above) • find ways to resolve connectivity issues in a variety of key sectors (develop guidelines for coordination in planning, implementation and maintenance, as well as in technology matters; establish indicators of ‘good connectivity’). 6.3.2.6 Quality Control and Professional Associations’ Role 162 2006 MPI/CIEM Report on Strengthening Interagency Coordination The 2006 report said that services standards set by corresponding ministries/departments were under-developed and not aligned with international standards, though efforts were underway to rectify this. The report highlighted the potential for greater private sector participation in standard-setting and enforcement. Recommendation: Service quality control should be defined as a mandate of the relevant government agencies. The capacity of professional service sector associations should be built to take part in developing the standards of service quality and control. Clear standards of service quality will help in coordination among government agencies responsible for the service sector state management. In many service sectors, the main drivers of regulatory policy are standards and disciplines developed by international organisations (eg, WTO, ISO, ISAR, etc), trading partners and professional bodies. Countries can develop a competitive advantage by taking a responsive approach to these standards – harmonising domestic measures with them (eg, with international accounting standards) and developing relevant quality-assurance, equivalency and mutual recognition mechanisms. In Viet Nam, Ministries set criteria for recognition of professional qualifications, equivalence, quality and licensing, in consultation with relevant professional associations (eg, Lawyers Association deals with Justice Ministry, Architects with Construction Ministry, Bankers Association with State Bank, CPAs with Ministry of Finance, etc). According to MPI and professional associations, while Ministries are regulated to coordinate and consult the private sector and associations on these matters, the process could work better, as could harmonisation with international standards. Many professional associations believe that the present top-down, ad hoc consultation system is not conducive to proper coordination and that only when the government needs consensus does it contact an association – especially regarding new mechanisms or policies. Moreover, some key planning and policymaking officials may not aware of associations’ existence or role. Regarding consultation processes, business associations do not tend to study ministerial websites very often. It might therefore be more effective for Ministries to put notices in newspapers to alert people to the opportunity to comment on policy ideas and drafts. A number of associations put draft legislation, etc, on their websites and also send letters to members inviting them to comment. However, as in most countries, response rates are disappointing (maybe 20%). Most associations have experts on staff or on call, so they are able to provide well considered comments and advice. However, they said they needed more training and expertise-building in order to reach international levels of competence. Roles of Key Professional Associations Viet Nam Lawyers Association (36,000 voluntary members: lawyers and people working in legal professions) 1. Participates in drafting laws (eg, commercial, arbitration). 2. Comments on some 20 draft laws per year for Ministry of Justice (MoJ) and other Ministries, gathering comments from relevant members and compiling them into a single set of VLA comments. All draft laws go through MoJ for review, quality control and 163 comments. Normally, MoJ passes them to VLA for comment. VLA usually circulates to relevant members (eg, criminal justice laws to criminal lawyers), or it may organise workshops, including in regions. 3. Provides legal aid for poor and disadvantaged, with one legal centre in Hanoi and one for HIV sufferers, plus 40 legal aid centres at provincial level. 4. Participates in committees to select judges and prosecutors. 5. Provides training and awareness building to members and to the general public on each new law. Trains members as multiplier agents in their regions. The Bar Association has compulsory membership of all practising lawyers, and exercises supervision and disciplinary functions. It is ‘negotiating’ to take over organisation of the bar exam from the Ministry of Justice. Viet Nam Bankers Association (All banks/financial institutions except three are members; foreign banks have their own Banking Group) • Serves as coordination bridge between government and banking community. • Participates in legal drafting committees at the invitation of the Government. • Provides comments on other draft legal documents at the request of Government. • Monitors implementing regulations (members report their comments on the regulations to the Bankers Association, which writes an official letter and/or attends a meeting/ workshop to contribute comments). • Conveys to Government authorities any difficulties experienced by credit institutions. • Conveys to members any problems from Government. • If necessary, in meetings between State Bank and PM, the State Bank will invite Association to voice concerns. Recently, in the administrative process reform, Association was invited to participate in the Government Office’s Council on Administrative Reform meeting with PM. Before this meeting, they sought comments from members and presented a report, plus they made suggestions and recommendations at the actual meeting. Viet Nam Association for Certified Practising Accountants/Auditors (90% of CPAs are members) • • • • • • Association develops auditing standards. MoF develops accounting standards: 90% are harmonised with international standards. Issues licences after practising auditors are certified by MoF. This licence allows them to sign audited documents for one year. Provides training: all members and aspiring CPAs must take a 40-hour/year training and refresher course in order to renew their licence. Conducts quality reviews, auditing all 200+ accounting/auditing firms once every three years. MoF sets guidelines for these quality standards and reviews. Association can discipline members who fail to live up to quality standards by revoking their licence or delisting them from membership. Provides advisory services: experts on staff provide advice as needed. 164 • Trains pre-CPAs for MoF exam and certification. Viet Nam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI) (200+ member organisations) • • • • • • • • • • Acts as umbrella organisation for business community. Serves as coordination ‘bridge’ between Government and business community (esp. Associations). Conducts advocacy and representation activities on behalf of business for policy and regulatory matters. Conducts awareness-building activities around the country on policy, regulatory and other matters of interest to business. Participates in legal drafting committees at the invitation of the Government, representing membership. Provides comments on draft legal documents at the request of Government. Monitors implementing regulations. Conducts trade promotion activities. Represents employers in tripartite employment-related matters. Organises training and awareness-building activities 165 6.3.2.7 Implementation and Enforcement Implementation and enforcement of policies, rules and plans is the most challenging of tasks facing the Government. As in many countries, agencies lack the necessary structures, skills and experience to do so effectively. In Viet Nam, policy implementation is governed by a hierarchy of legal documents ranging from laws, to decrees to circulars to decisions and letters, all issued by different levels of the bureaucracy. This is a slow, cumbersome process, with rules becoming increasingly fragmented and opaque the further down the line one goes. Responsibility for implementation is decentralised. For example, MPI is responsible for national investment policy, while (63+Hanoi) provincial and local MPI offices are responsible for its daily implementation and enforcement. All sectoral agencies have a similar system. While some government officials said that decentralisation was working better now, others were sceptical that it was delivering the desired impact. In Viet Nam as in many countries, major service sectors such as aviation, post and communications, energy, distribution, education, health, audiovisual, maritime transport and financial services are considered strategic and sensitive. As some of these sectors are liberalised and opened up to private enterprise and FDI, regulatory functions are becoming more important and the relevant agencies are becoming more powerful. To ensure that both national and consumer interests are met, it is crucial to: •properly fund and staff regulatory and implementing bodies with the best and brightest •inculcate awareness and common understanding of the national interest •institute recognised good practices •monitor regularly their performance. 6.3.2.8 Monitoring and Evaluation 2006 MPI/CIEM Report on Strengthening Interagency Coordination Coordination, planning, monitoring and evaluation all require adequate information and data analysis capacity. Most central and local agencies do not perform monitoring and evaluation well and as a result they often lack information to make useful comments. At the same time, monitoring and evaluation is yet to be institutionalized. M&E indicators are not yet specific, measurable, affordable, relevant and time-bound, and monitoring capacity remains limited. Capacity for data collection, processing and analysing are inadequate, and information sharing is not the culture of government agencies. Recommendations: Monitoring and evaluation is a tool for implementing results-based approaches to state management. This should be improved with the development of a good set of M&E indicators, appropriate facilities and capacity-building. Decree 144/2005/ND-CP, 2005, identified the OOG as the policy, strategies and plans drafting and supervision coordinator at the central level and PPC Administration for the provincial level. However, this regulation has not been applied to the monitoring and evaluation of the implementation of policy, strategies and plans. The report recommended extending the scope of this regulation to include responsibility for monitoring and evaluation 166 to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of interagency coordination. Consultations in mid-2009 indicated that many of the problems mentioned in 2006 still need to be addressed. Importantly, the Midterm Review of the 2006-2010 Five-Year Plan was in itself an important step forward as a results-based approach to quantifying, monitoring and reviewing five-year plans. It is recommended that this results-oriented approach be institutionalised in all planning and review activities. This must include a major strengthening of databases and other statistical and information tools, and intensified training on how to use them for planning, monitoring and review (preferably on-the-job training, to develop the forthcoming Five-Year Plan and review progress regularly). Finalising the National Indicators System should have high priority. The next section covers these issues in detail. 6.3.2.9 Statistics and Indicators 2006 MPI/CIEM Report on Strengthening Interagency Coordination Recommendations: Monitoring and evaluation is a tool for implementing results-based approaches to state management. (This) should be improved with the development of a good set of M&E indicators and appropriate facilities. The M&E capacity of government staff should also be strengthened. It is also necessary to issue regulations on data collection, analysis, use and sharing between agencies/units/individuals to ensure that collected and processed information is shared between relevant agencies/individuals and between levels. The 1993 national industrial classification should be amended to reflect the requirements of a transition to a market economy and global integration. The 2006 recommendations on statistics and indicators have been acted on in part. For example, the national industrial classification is being amended and applied and, as mentioned in the previous section, results-based approaches are being adopted for monitoring and evaluation. Regarding capacity issues, apart from statistics officers, professional officers in agencies need to develop confidence and expertise in using statistics and other data in policy formulation, strategic planning and ongoing project management and review. Progress is occurring, but it needs to advance more quickly. This section provides further suggestions for strengthening the country’s ability to plan, as well as to assess and refine performance. Around the world, measuring services output and productivity is a challenge. Yet it is crucial to be able to assess performance, competitiveness and policy options. Central statistics offices can be a valuable source of performance and competitiveness data, especially if these focus on outputs as well as on inputs. MPI is hosting a Services Statistics project to develop classifications and other information. This will help overcome problems related to defining services sectors, collecting and analysing data, conducting analysis, and setting objectives and M&E indicators. Access to and Dissemination of Statistical Information Researchers, statisticians, officials and professional associations would like access to statistical information – especially disaggregated data – to be straightforward. At present, 167 access often requires personal relationships and payment. Clearly, normal dissemination mechanisms and transparent payment schedules need to be developed. Currently, information is available in hard copies (though disaggregated data in this form is very old and not aligned with the new system of classification) and on ministry websites. For trade statistics, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is the main repository. Coordination of information collection and dissemination “Coordination is weak; every unit, department, agency has its own targets, and even though there may be overlaps, they do not share information or coordinate on data collection to ensure consistency. The biggest problem is that people don’t talk to each other on a regular basis. Statistics working groups and task forces exist, but the level is usually too high and too many people are involved to arrive at clear decisions. Even when a decision is made and a recommendation sent up for approval, the end-result may not deal with the original issue.” In 2008, an evaluation of the UNDP-DFID-GSO project on socio-economic development monitoring recommended establishment of a Statistics Coordination Council - a normal entity in many countries. Such a Coordination Council would facilitate systematic user-producer dialogues (where users define needs and producers respond) and systematic dissemination of information. It would also help overcome a number of weaknesses in collection, compilation and dissemination of data, since many ministries and agencies are using different (their own) data systems. That evaluation also recommended establishment of Experts Groups for various sectoral statistics to provide technical support to such a Coordination Council. 6.3.2.9.1 Needs and Recommendations Coordination on Statistics • Institute mechanisms to ensure that people talk to each other systematically. • The proposed Statistics Coordination Council and its user-producer dialogues could be one way to encourage this. • In coordination with the GSO, establish Experts Group/s on Services Sector Statistics to provide technical guidance and support to improve the availability of services data. • Utilise research institutes of ministries to promote good practices. Dissemination of data and statistical information • • • Develop a standard policy for access to and payment for data. Use the proposed Coordination Council, research and training institutes as ‘partners in dissemination’ of statistics and indicators for use in analysis, planning and review. Since data on the services sector are collected by various agencies, there is a need for uniform application of standards and classifications. There is also a need for at least a common metadata database which provides information on the data and indicators available, the definitions and classifications utilised, methods and uses for producing the indicators, and the agencies responsible for data collection and compilation of these indicators. 168 Using statistical information in planning and management • • Train the younger mid-level directors and deputy directors on evidence-based policy formulation and planning, and results-based management - preferably ‘on the job’ training, tied to annual planning and review cycles. This should take place at both the central and provincial levels. Enlist potential ‘partner’ entities in capacity building, eg: Government Office Training Institute Research Institutes at ministries and universities: A number of government and university research institutes (most ministries have such institutes) are beginning to play an important role in promoting and advocating better use of evidence-based policy formulation and planning. Mostly young researchers, these groups have the ear of the Prime Minister and are getting action. Provincial Statistics Training Institutes: develop training curricula for results-based management, train them to become dynamic ‘facilitators’. Provincial statistics training institutes could play a larger role in facilitating results-based management, etc, among provincial and local government agencies and SOEs. Donors have assisted to upgrade these institutes, but further capacity-building is required. The institutes could get on more sustainable footing, perhaps, if they could deliver practical training in accessing and utilising statistical information, developing indicators and using them in monitoring and evaluation. • Agencies that produce and use service sector statistics must participate in the ongoing GSO-led reform of statistical indicators systems, on instructions from the Prime Minister. • Agencies that produce and use service sector statistics must participate in the design of the 2011-2020 Viet Nam Statistical Development Strategy (VSDS) which will start during the last quarter of 2009. This process, to be coordinated by GSO, presents an opportunity to define strategies and formulate action plans for improving service sector statistics production, dissemination, accessibility and capacity building. The VSDS will include budget estimates and a financial plan for implementing the action plans. • Encourage long-term, well designed, well coordinated donor programmes (as opposed to short-term or ad hoc projects), to facilitate institutionalisation of good practices in statistics coordination, planning, implementation and review. • The lead agency should demonstrate leadership by using the new cycle of planning to advocate implementation of the new 270+ statistics indicators. 169 6.4 Capacity-Building and Institutional Str engthening Suggestions 43 Coordination Mechanisms • • • • • The Services Task Force needs a clear objective and role, plus a time-bound Work Plan. Establish at MPI a Services Policy Consultative and Implementation Mechanism, along the lines of Attachment 2. A Trade Policy Consultative Mechanism, along the lines of Attachment 3, could prove useful for MoIT. All agencies and associations need IT systems, software and skills that can support better coordination, networking and information sharing. Ministerial budgets should include allocations for newspaper announcements calling for comments on policy ideas and draft legislation. Public Servants require: • • • • • • • • Training in policy formulation, strategic planning and project management, including in using statistics and other data in policy formulation, planning and ongoing project management and review Assistance to implement good practices in consultation, coordination and results-based management, including developing realistic indicators for measuring performance Training and experience in risk management Codes of conduct and adoption of good practices in service delivery, especially at the district and local levels IT software, systems and skills to deliver better coordination, networking and information sharing centrally and locally Awareness building on WTO commitments, rights and obligations, their implications and their interpretation and application A clear and coherent investment law, including a clear definition of FDI Leadership and decision-making skills. CIEM needs: • • • • • Training on IT, database development, statistics collection and utilisation Equipment and software Motivation, incentives Better workflow management Horizontal as well as vertical organisation of tasks. General Statistics Office requires: 43 These suggestions emerged from consultations with relevant associations, ministries and agencies, as well as from the PTF Experts’ sectoral reports. 170 • • • • • • Statistics officers who are confident and expert in using statistics and other data in policy formulation, strategic planning and ongoing project management and review On-the-job training to develop the forthcoming Five-Year Plan and review progress regularly Stronger databases and other statistical and information tools ( Assistance to develop statistics/data User-Producer dialogues as part of a Statistics Coordination Council Evidence-based, results-oriented policy formulation, planning and management: on-thejob training tied to annual planning and review cycles, at both central and provincial levels Institutionalisation of statistics coordination, good planning, implementation and review practices Lawyers Association and Bar Association should develop: • • A code of conduct Awareness building programmes for the public and private sectors on legal services, contracts, dispute settlement, arbitration. Law Profession Skills Needed Over the Next 10 Years • International law • Trade law • Dispute settlement/arbitration • WTO commitments • Environment law • Consumer protection (law to be discussed in National Assembly in October, possibly passed by May 2010) • Competition policy Accountancy and Auditing Association requires: • • • • Assistance to develop good practice guidelines for the Association of Chartered Accountants Assistance to deliver training activities more efficiently and effectively Training to equip staff to do reviews of auditors better (and they need extra staff to fulfill the task) Appropriate IT systems, software and skills to conduct accounting and auditing activities and reviews. Bankers Association requires: • Training in credit management, financial accounting, risk assessment 171 • • Scope (broader official role) to expand its training activities, issue certificates of skills and undertake other professional functions to strengthen the banking profession; this would include merging State Bank and Association training activities Assistance to strengthen its advocacy function. VCCI would see benefit in: • • • Awareness building among business community of need for and benefit of consultation and commenting on draft laws Consultation on policy development, not just on legal drafts Developing an effective Chamber-based consultative mechanism. Environment agency needs assistance to develop: • • • • • • • • Broadbased awareness building, including of CDM, etc Criteria for assessment and design of practical solutions for environmental aspects of sectoral planning Environmental monitoring systems and skills Environmental management systems and skills, including risk assessment Pollution reduction technology Enforcement mechanisms Reporting system: template for consistency, comparability Strategic environmental impact assessment for each region (eg, for hydropower projects). Transport sector needs assistance to achieve: • • • • A common national vision that regions and local authorities can link into Well conceived and well planned connectivity of road, rail, sea infrastructure Development of logistics and multimodal solutions, supported by a coherent regulatory environment (clear definition, legal and regulatory framework to replace current fragmented approach) Strategic approach to foreign role (not just foreign investors and contractors, but also foreign experts) in developing infrastructure – ‘quality’ issue: international experts could contribute to technical planning and implementation matters, to ensure practicality and feasibility. Banking sector requires the following improvements: • Legal framework - clarify the status and role of the State Bank, as the foundation of a sound system - develop consumer protection and competition policy for financial services • Infrastructure and technology - upgrade payment and clearing system to automate and connect all banks to the SB’s main system 172 • • • • Capacity – HR development: strengthen training centres and programmes such as: long-term training at universities Banking Institute Bankers Association State Bank Training Centres Strengthen State Bank’s supervisory role and capacity: authority and tools to take corrective action training in risk assessment and management Strengthen Banking Association’s role Establish a Banking Sector Statistics Office in the Banking Institute. Insurance sector requires: • • • • Risk management systems and training for insurance providers and oversight agencies (MoF, SB) Training and licensing programmes to raise qualifications and numbers of insurance agents Assistance to assess and implement international capital base requirements Code of conduct for insurance agents. Securities sector requires: • • • • • Updated regulatory system and regulator: currently can’t keep pace with the market (takes 2-3 years to issue regulations); many levels of approval are required before National Assembly can act Stronger supervision systems and skills for Securities Commission Training programmes to deliver adequate numbers of qualified people for securities industry (eg, perhaps invite Australia’s Securities Institute to set up a regional branch here) Appropriate infrastructure: upgraded systems and technology for Securities Commission, Stock Exchange, securities companies Automated, rigorous reporting and auditing. Telecommunications sector requires assistance to: • • • • • • Enhance the capacity of central and local agencies to directly manage telecommunications, radio frequency, internet and information safety and security Provide specialist Chief Information Officer and ICT training courses Improve the capacity of administrative bodies to implement plans, including through upgraded IT systems and skills and quality controls Improve supervision and inspection skills and systems Deploy standardised working processes (ISO) Develop systems to improve coordination within and among agencies at all levels, to ensure a coherent approach to telecommunications and ICT development. 173 Distribution • • Training for officials on how to carry out investigations and ENT inspections, once the regulations are in place Assistance to understand and apply foreign enterprises’ import and distribution rights in line with WTO commitments. 6.5 Summar y: Key Findings and Recommendations While progress has been made on a number of fronts since the last set of Services-related coordination and strategy recommendations was issued in mid-2006 44,45, an intensified effort is required to consolidate advances made to date and overcome enduring weaknesses. Coordination and consultation practices, as well as implementation, monitoring and review capabilities are improving, but stronger, more concerted action will be required to meet the services sector objectives being set for the next five years. As in other countries, coordination and consultation present a major challenge for Government and the private sector alike. Both recognise the value of these good practices, but putting them into action requires enormous patience, persistence and perseverance. The price in terms of time can be high, but the rewards in terms of impact can be great. In the services sector, in particular, implementation will not deliver the desired results without appropriate coordination and consultation. Experience shows that the best way to achieve this is to institutionalise the good coordination/consultation practices, so that these become the ‘normal’ way of working. This takes time and considerable attention to awareness- and skillsbuilding and instilling a disciplined approach. (Good practice guidelines for policymaking and consultation are presented at sections 3.2.3. and 3.2.4.) Priority Services: Backbones of Development Fairly broad consensus was observed regarding the priority services areas for intensified government attention over the next five years (ie, education and training, backbone infrastructure/services, business services, logistics). The Ministry of Planning and Investment has indicated that the Government’s role in services sector development will increasingly focus on the enabling environment, including: • • • developing an appropriate regulatory framework and enforcement mechanisms orienting education and training to meet the need for qualified, flexible and competent professionals and technicians ensuring reliable, efficient, interconnected and reasonably priced backbone services such as transport, power and communications. 44 Strengthening the Coordination between the State Management Agencies Responsible for the Service Sector, Ministry of Planning and Investment, and Central Institute for Economic Management (Project 5101), Hanoi, May 2006 45 General Framework for a National Strategy for the Services Sector in Vietnam up to 2020, Ministry of Planning and Investment and UNDP, Hanoi, June 2006 174 Given these areas’ strong synergies and their powerful impact potential, effective interagency coordination - horizontally and vertically – during the next development phase, will be crucial for Viet Nam’s industrial, social and economic development. Progress on Services Strategies The Midterm Review of the 2006-2010 Five-Year Socioeconomic Development Plan injected a reality check for services growth, readjusting the 2010 targets of 42% of GDP and 37% of employment to a more achievable 40% of GDP and 27% of employment. It noted that “high value-added business-supporting services which are critical for enhancing the competitiveness of the whole economy remain underdeveloped and are not capable of meeting the needs of the economy”. The Review called for greater attention and support for these services and for more creative approaches to other key areas such as infrastructure services. MPI officials said in early July they will set new targets for 2015 and 2020 in early 2010, based on new Five-Year sectoral plans and updated statistical data. A Services Action Plan issued in mid-2009 assigned relevant Ministries specific tasks in this regard (Attachment 1). It also set out ambitious objectives and activities aimed at addressing many of the issues raised in the Review and other reports, including coordination issues. Progress on Implementing WTO Commitments A CIEM review of progress on implementation of WTO commitments two years after Viet Nam’s January 2007 accession also portrayed mixed results 46. While the business environment and legislative framework have shown definite signs of improvement, a number of obstacles must be overcome if the country is to benefit fully from its WTO membership. A key problem, raised by CIEM as well as other entities consulted, is confusion over the meaning of commitments. This leads to fragmented and often overly rigorous interpretation of rules, especially regarding foreign investment. It is particularly pronounced at the district and local levels, but CIEM noted that even the Ministry of Planning and Investment and the Ministry of Industry and Trade have been known to give different opinions regarding certain commitments. Causes include poor coordination, lagging regulatory action (“lack of clear and specific regulations”), professional and technical capacity limitations, and a lack of understanding of WTO commitments and the potential development benefits of WTO membership. “Some (state agencies in charge of licensing) consider the WTO a burden for the country, not an opportunity to promote investment and national development.” Making and Implementing Policies and Laws While consultation on drafting of legal documents is being progressively institutionalised since it was made mandatory in the amended Law on the Enactment of Legal Documents in 2002 and 2005, a critical transparency gap still exists at the preceding policy-formulation stage. This results in less-than-optimum input during the legal drafting stage, due to lack of understanding of the specific policy objectives and their link to the national interest. This is not a new issue; it has been raised in several reports in 2004-2006, and it arose numerous times during consultations in July. It is therefore recommended that the government take steps to substantiate policy decisions and justify why a particular regulatory option was chosen, and communicate this information to all the people involved in drafting and commenting on legal documents. Many countries have institutionalised this form of policy justification, as a 46 Building Blocks Laid for WTO Success, http://vietnamnet.vn/service/printversion.vnn?article_id=1148729, Nguyen Dinh Cung, Director, Central Institute for Economic Management’s Department for Macroeconomic Policy, VietNamNet Bridge, 9/01/2009 175 necessary prerequisite to law drafting. (See Policy and Regulatory Good Practice Checklist under ‘Policymaking’ in Part 3.) Implementation also remains a challenge. It often takes 2-5 years to put into effect the implementing regulation, and enforcement mechanisms can take even longer. It is therefore recommended (as it has been in the past) that officials draft the implementing regulation and enforcement measures at the same time as the relevant law. In addition to speeding up the process, this would result in more appropriate indicators for monitoring and evaluation of regulatory effectiveness. It would also streamline coordination. Monitoring, Evaluation and Statistics The Midterm Review of the 2006-2011 Five-Year Plan in 2008 was in itself an important step forward as a results-based approach to quantifying, monitoring and reviewing five-year plans. It is recommended that this results-oriented approach be institutionalised in all planning and review activities. This must include a major strengthening of databases and other statistical and information tools, and intensified training on how to use them for planning, monitoring and review (preferably on-the-job training, to develop the forthcoming Five-Year Plan and review progress regularly). Finalising the National Indicators System should have high priority. It is also recommended to establish a Statistics Coordination Council to facilitate systematic user-producer dialogues and overcome weaknesses in collection, compilation and dissemination of data. Experts Groups on Services Sector Statistics should be set up to provide technical guidance to the Council and improve the availability of services data. Coordination and Consultation to Consolidate Good Practices To help drive the ‘best practice’ approaches mentioned above, it is recommended that MPI establish a permanent Services Policy Consultative Group (see sample chart at Attachment 2). It should be directed by an official with decision-making authority, supported by a small group of high-level executives who will delegate work on specific pressing issues to resultsoriented working groups comprised of relevant stakeholders. The Consultative Group’s Work Plan should be time-bound and focus on finding innovative, yet realistic and sustainable, solutions to key issues and bottlenecks. One of the Group’s tasks should be to foster the development of local analytical capacity in services sector policy issues by regularly commissioning think tanks in academia, ministries and institutes to conduct research and provide advice on pressing issues. Regarding a Work Plan, the Consultative Group could, for example, delegate Working Groups to: • conduct an audit of education and training needs for the 21st Century in consultation with industry, the professions and educational institutions, and deliver recommendations for change • explore how professional and industry associations could play a stronger role in improving and assuring quality standards and enforcing ‘codes of conduct’ • develop a more rigorous and transparent approach to services sector policymaking, lawmaking and enforcement, to facilitate implementation of the next Five-Year Plan (find ways to institutionalise in practice the use of internationally recognised ‘good practices’ in policy and regulation development, consultation and interagency coordination) 176 • • • explore how a strategic FDI-attraction policy could accelerate the development of the priority areas through well targeted injections of investment, technology and skills document and provide solutions for impediments to implementation of WTO services commitments (see CIEM review above) find ways to resolve connectivity issues in a variety of key sectors (develop guidelines for coordination in planning, implementation and maintenance, as well as in technology matters; establish indicators of ‘good connectivity’). Awareness Building In preparing the next Five-Year Plan, it is recommended that a nationwide services awareness-building campaign be implemented - aimed at government agencies and the business community. It could highlight, in an innovative and attention-attracting fashion, the development opportunities that Viet Nam’s international services commitments offer and the challenges they present. With a better understanding of the priorities, issues, interlinkages and roles, both sides can approach services issues with more confidence. Such a campaign should: • • • highlight the crosscutting nature of all services sectors and the need for a coherent, joint development effort identify clearly and concisely how government and business, individually and together, can maximise the opportunities and deal with the challenges (particularly in the key priority areas) share comparative experience and success stories to motivate people and inspire change. Capacity Building Consultations with agencies and professional associations highlighted a number of areas where institutional and human resource capacity building would help deliver a healthier, more competitive services sector. Recommendations in this regard (Section 4 below) address the issues and priorities mentioned above. They cover strategic planning and policymaking, impact evaluation, technology, statistics, information management, awareness building, quality assurance, codes of conduct, connectivity, risk management, supervision, monitoring and evaluation, international standards, and a variety of technical and professional skills. 177 6.6 Sum-Up of Main Recommendations 1. That the Government adopt and apply international recognised principles and good practices in transparency, consultation and coordination in policymaking, regulatory and planning processes. 2. That the government take steps to substantiate policy decisions, justify why a particular regulatory option was chosen, and communicate this information to everyone involved in drafting and commenting on legal documents. 3. That officials draft the implementing regulation and enforcement measures at the same time as it prepares the relevant law. 4. That MPI establish a permanent Services Policy Consultative Group, including private sector organisations. 5. That a nationwide Services awareness-building campaign be implemented as part of developing the next Five-Year Plan. 6. That a results-oriented monitoring and evaluation approach be institutionalised in all planning and review activities. 7. That databases and other statistical and information tools be strengthened considerably, and intensified training be provided on how to use them for planning, monitoring and review (preferably on-the-job training, to develop the forthcoming Five-Year Plan and review progress regularly). 8. That a Statistics Coordination Council be established. 9. That Experts Groups on Services Sector Statistics be set up to provide technical guidance to the Council and improve the availability of services data. 10. That the Government and donors take action on the capacity-building and institutional strengthening suggestions in Part 4 above. 178 CHAPTER 7: STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS This chapter contains, in a condensed and structured form, the recommendations put forward in the previous sections that are of strategic importance for the success of a longer-term services policy framework. The recommended actions and approaches should be core ingredients of a comprehensive framework for Viet Nam’s future services sector development. Their intended objectives can be achieved only if the other recommended actions and approaches are also implemented. It is important to bear in mind the strong interlinkages and overlaps among policies affecting (or promoting) services. For example, FDI-related considerations can be simultaneously present in trade policy (Mode 3 of the GATS), investment policy, innovation policy, macroeconomic policy and a host of sectoral policies. It is therefore impossible to avoid overlaps among the strategic recommendations. 7.1 Main pr inciples for an effective and compr ehensive policy fr amewor k for ser vices A comprehensive strategy to develop the services sector requires a new policy approach that puts services sector productivity growth at the centre of Viet Nam’s overall economic policy. It is recommended that the CSSSD - and the longer framework that would follow it not be a sectoral policy in the traditional sense, but rather a “productivity policy” that maximizes the gains for the economy as a whole and allows individual sectors to benefit from the strong interlinkages that exist between services productivity growth and manufacturing. The rationale for such a policy is that a well-functioning services sector is key to Viet Nam’s overall economic development - in particular to achieve its poverty reduction and industrialization objectives. As a starting point, the CSSSD should formally recognize services as a key to increasing Viet Nam’s competitiveness. We fully share the GFSS’s recommendation that a formal recognition is critical for developing a competitive and effective services sector. It is also critical for Viet Nam’s successful industrialization in the context of international integration. A formal and written recognition is important because: • It would give the services sector its appropriate status in the national development strategy, dissipating general misconceptions, including among policy makers, of the allegedly residual role of services relative to agriculture and manufacturing. • It will help in setting policy priorities, clearing the way for the types of laws and regulations needed to develop the services sector, diversify the ownership of service enterprises, and strengthen coordination mechanisms for optimal development of the services sector. 179 • It will focus policy initiatives on priority services in order to support economic growth and improve the basic infrastructure provided by telecommunications, education and training, business services, finance, and transportation. • It will provide a framework for the allocation of research resources to enhance understanding of the dynamics of Viet Nam’s services sector through comprehensive studies and pilot projects supported by international organizations. The CSSSD will provide an action plan for services sector development up to 2020. Given the speed of change affecting services sectors around the world, a services strategy should be a permanent ongoing, ‘living’ task that should adjust the policy objectives and monitor their achievement on a continuous basis. Therefore, it is recommended that the CSSSD kick-start a policy framework to deal with services development issues whose life would span beyond the CSSSD. On the important question of whether the CSSSD should mainly focus on individual services or address mainly horizontal policy issues: It is recommended that the CSSSD put more emphasis on cross-cutting issues (horizontal policies) rather than seeking individual solutions for specific sub-sectors. This approach is mirrored by the indication that the Government’s role in services sector development will increasingly focus on the enabling environment, including: • • • developing an appropriate regulatory framework and enforcement mechanisms orienting education and training to meet the need for qualified, flexible and competent professionals and technicians, and ensuring reliable, efficient, interconnected and reasonably priced backbone services such as transport, power and communications. 7.2 Remove impediments that pr event competition and demand for ser vices While domestic demand for services generally depends on the level of economic development, in Viet Nam the dominant share of the State in the economy acts as a structural impediment to the emergence and growth of strategic business services produced by private firms. Important sectors lack genuine competition because incumbent SOEs enjoy a monopoly or oligopoly situation. These SOEs, which are not exposed to competitive pressure, prefer to produce business support services in-house or purchase them from government agencies or other SOEs. This constrains the emergence of strategic business services. Since SOEs are often the only potential clients for outsourced intermediate services, such services will not be offered as long as SOEs are not economically motivated to purchase cheaper or better quality services outside the normal circle. On the other side, in the absence of independent service providers, the SOEs cannot consider them as alternative sources. It is therefore recommended to remove the structural impediments to business services resulting from State-ownership. This may include: 180 • Privatization cum restructuring of SOEs which do not operate in natural monopoly markets or in strategic sectors like defence or genuine public service areas. Restructuring before privatization is necessary to avoid State-owned monopolies or oligopolies being simply replaced by private monopolies, duopolies or oligopolies. • Subjecting SOEs and other state-owned entities to government procurement rules for services. In order to enhance competition in areas dominated by SOEs, their actual (positive and negative) roles must be assessed thoroughly from the perspective of effective competition (with corresponding market concentration indicators and price-setting behaviours), long-term development, and the enforcement of ’hard-budget constraints‘ (bankruptcy legislation and banking practices). It is also recommended that the Government purchase business and other services through open competitive bids, rather than relying on a preferential basis on SOEs and its own agencies. This would not remove the distortion of services markets resulting from structural constraints, but would at least provide more opportunities to private services firms to expand business operations. It is recommended to allow all domestic service providers to sell services to manufacturing and other enterprises operating in IPs, EPZs and EZs. 7.3 Remove r egulator y bar r ier s to ser vices The services sector has traditionally been highly regulated worldwide. While some regulations may have been justified by socioeconomic objectives and market failures, many regulatory restrictions no longer have any economic justification beyond the protection of incumbent firms and special interest groups. In fact, the important contribution of services to the rest of the economy has spurred governments to ease restrictions. In Viet Nam, the development of competitive services sectors are constrained by a rigid regulatory and institutional framework and a host of regulations that are ill-adapted to the requirements of a free enterprise-based modern market economy. During the last 20-25 years, many countries – developing and developed alike – have extensively liberalized their service markets and have reformed service sector regulations. Many have done so on an autonomous unilateral basis (eg, telecommunications). In general, services reforms have led to increased competition, better services provision, lower prices and wider choice. Empirical studies of efficiency gains from regulatory reforms in OECD countries show an increase of up to 6 percentage points of GDP, depending on the initial state of regulation in the different countries. Given Viet Nam’s higher restriction base, there is reason to believe that the gains from regulatory reforms would contribute even higher gains. It is therefore recommended that the Government launch a comprehensive review of Vietnamese services sector regulations and engage in service sector reforms. 181 7.4 Ser vices Related Policy Making and Implementation 7.4.1 Policy design and policy making Policy design and making are still not systematically preceded by evidence-based analysis. Policy decisions are sometimes taken on an intuitive basis, or after selective consultations with business. This practice not only risks suboptimal decisions, but the resulting policy may prove later difficult to correct. It is therefore recommended to introduce evidence-based policy making. In order to service such policy making, the Government should create appropriate research/analysis capacity in the relevant disciplines. To shift to evidence-based policy making, the Government may wish in particular to consider the following recommendations: Productivity levels are low in Viet Nam, indicating the need for the creation of a Productivity Council that would identify problems and find solutions to raise productivity in all sectors. As proposed under point 7.1 above, this could take the form of a Government-sponsored institute, operating independently from the Government, which could undertake high-quality research and analysis on a wide range of economic, social and environmental issues affecting productivity and efficiency of the economy, including on sectors and products that are vital for Viet Nam’s future as a knowledge-based economy. A possible model for the establishment of such an independent analytical and advisory body could be the Australian Productivity Commission (www.pc.gov.au). Finalizing the National Indicators System on a high-priority basis. Establishing a Statistics Coordination Council to facilitate systematic user-producer dialogues and overcome weaknesses in collection, compilation and dissemination of data. Experts Groups on Services Sector Statistics should be set up to provide technical guidance to the Council and improve the availability of services data. See also the recommendation under point 7.4.5. 7.4.2 Inter-agency Coordination Although some advances have been made in strengthening coordination between the various State agencies with service sector responsibilities, an intensified effort is required to overcome enduring weaknesses. It is recommended to achieve this by institutionalizing good practices in coordination and consultation, so that these become the ’normal‘way of working, and adopting the ’good practice guidelines for policymaking and consultation’ presented in Chapter 6: sections 3.2.3. and 3.2.4.) 182 7.4.3 Legal drafting and implementation While drafting of legal documents is being progressively institutionalized, a critical transparency gap still exists at the preceding policy-formulation stage. This results in lessthan-optimum input during the legal drafting stage, due to lack of understanding of the specific policy objectives and their link to the national interest. It is therefore recommended that the government take steps to substantiate policy decisions and justify why a particular regulatory option was chosen, and communicate this information to all the people involved in drafting and commenting on legal documents. Legal implementation still remains a challenge. It often takes 2-5 years to put into effect the implementing regulation of a law, and enforcement can take even longer. It is therefore recommended (as it has been in the past) that officials draft the implementing regulation and enforcement measures at the same time as the relevant law. In addition to speeding up the process, this would result in more appropriate indicators for monitoring and evaluation of regulatory effectiveness. It would also streamline coordination. The effective and fair enforcement of legislation is also important. This requires addressing corruption and bureaucratic practices. 7.4.4 Monitoring and Evaluation and Statistics It is recommended that the results-oriented approach to monitoring and evaluation taken by the Midterm Review of the 2006-2011 Five-Year Plan in 2008 be institutionalized in all planning and review activities. This must include a major strengthening of databases and other statistical and information tools, and intensified training on how to use them for planning, monitoring and review 7.4.5 Coordination and Consultation to Consolidate Good Practices To help drive the ‘best practice’ approaches, it is recommended that MPI establish a permanent Services Policy Consultative Group (see sample set-up at Attachment xx). It should be directed by an official with decision-making authority, supported by a small group of high-level executives who will delegate work on specific pressing issues to results-oriented working groups comprised of relevant stakeholders. The Consultative Group’s Work Plan should be time-bound and focus on finding innovative, yet realistic and sustainable, solutions to key issues and bottlenecks. One of the Group’s tasks should be to foster the development of local analytical capacity in services sector policy issues by regularly commissioning think tanks in academia, ministries and institutes to conduct research and provide advice on pressing issues. 183 Regarding a Work Plan, the Consultative Group could, for example, delegate Working Groups to: • conduct an audit of education and training needs for the 21st Century in consultation with industry, the professions and educational institutions, and deliver recommendations for change • explore how professional and industry associations could play a stronger role in improving and assuring quality standards and enforcing ‘codes of conduct’ • develop a more rigorous and transparent approach to services sector policymaking, lawmaking and enforcement, to facilitate implementation of the next Five-Year Plan (find ways to institutionalise in practice the use of internationally recognised ‘good practices’ in policy and regulation development, consultation and interagency coordination) • explore how a strategic FDI-attraction policy could accelerate the development of the priority areas through well targeted injections of investment, technology and skills • document and provide solutions for impediments to implementation of WTO services commitments (see CIEM review above) • find ways to resolve connectivity issues in a variety of key sectors (develop guidelines for coordination in planning, implementation and maintenance, as well as in technology matters; establish indicators of ‘good connectivity’). 7.4.6 Awareness Building In preparing the next Five-Year Plan, it is recommended that a nationwide services awareness-building campaign be implemented - aimed at government agencies and the business community. It could highlight, in an innovative and attention-attracting fashion, the development opportunities that Viet Nam’s international services commitments offer and the challenges they present. With a better understanding of the priorities, the issues, the interlinkages and the respective roles, both sides could approach services issues with more confidence. Such a campaign should: • highlight the crosscutting nature of all services sectors and the need for a coherent, joint development effort • identify clearly and concisely how government and business, individually and together, can maximise the opportunities and deal with the challenges (particularly in the key priority areas) • share comparative experience and success stories to motivate people and inspire change. 7.4.7 Capacity Building Institutional and human resource capacity building would help deliver a healthier, more competitive services sector. 184 Recommendations in this regard (see details in Section 4 of Chapter 6) cover strategic planning and policymaking, impact evaluation, technology, statistics, information management, awareness building, quality assurance, codes of conduct, connectivity, risk management, supervision, monitoring and evaluation, international standards, and a variety of technical and professional skills. 7.5 Inter national Tr ade and Investment in Ser vices Since the growing globalization of services is driving the strong performance of service sectors around the world, Viet Nam’s services trade policy should be an integral part of its overall services strategy. If Viet Nam is to derive maximum gains from its participation in trade in services, it is important to recognize that the benefits are equally significant on both the “export” and “import” sides. Associating the benefits from trade in services only to export surpluses would prevent Viet Nam from seizing the real opportunities that services trade presents for economy-wide productivity gains. Policy makers should therefore consider unilateral liberalization measures to open Viet Nam’s services markets to international competition, including by reducing barriers to foreign direct investment. Quantitative analyses have shown that in Viet Nam labour productivity is highest in foreignowned companies. It is therefore recommended to pay much more policy attention to the role of FDI in fostering economic growth. It is urgent to: increase the business community’s awareness of service export opportunities strengthen service industry associations’ role in shaping regulations and infrastructurerelated decisions ensure that state-controlled service providers, VIETRADE, and training institutions intensify their efforts to improve Viet Nam’s performance in global service markets. The proposed services export strategy comprises (i) preliminary awareness-building and networking activities aimed at mobilizing the main stakeholders; and (ii) projects aimed at improving export readiness, advocacy and more service-friendly regulation and infrastructure. The Vietnamese Services Forum should become a focal point for service industries, scholars and Government 7.6 Innovation Policy 185 R&D activities in Viet Nam have so far been largely linked to industrial needs. In order to develop a well adapted innovation policy, the CSSSD should address how existing public R&D projects can be associated with the needs of the services sector, and improve the links between services sector firms and public research. It is therefore recommended to adopt a strategy which links innovation-related activities in services to manufacturing industries, which use the most local R&D. As part of such a strategy, it is recommended to develop industry/service clusters, e.g. in the ICT area. 7.7 Human Resour ces Reform of the public higher education system, especially of universities, should be stepped up. However, spectacular improvements in the performance of the public system can not be expected in the short run. Therefore, access to the education market by domestic and foreign private universities should be further liberalized. It is essential to raise the level of qualification of management and workers. For that purpose, an effective and permanent interface must be built between the education system and the economic and business spheres. The Ministries of Labour and Education should have regular consultations with business and industry associations to identify ongoing needs for skilled and semiskilled labour. 7.8 Pr ior ity Ser vices Subsector s Notwithstanding the last recommendation in point 7.1, intensified government attention is warranted for some specific services, namely education and training, backbone infrastructure and services, business services and logistics. Given these areas’ strong synergies and their powerful impact potential, effective interagency coordination - horizontally and vertically – during the next development phase, will be crucial for Viet Nam’s industrial, social and economic development. In addition, a specific policy focus is recommended for services exports and services imports. A national services export strategy for the next 15 years should focus on the following key areas: e-commerce, computer-related services, engineering services, construction services, transportation (in synergy with the ASEAN partners) and freight-forwarding services, ’green‘ hospitality (eco-tourism), specialized medical services, business support and promotion services, equipment maintenance (ships and airplanes), and services targeting temporary labour migration. Any sector-based strategy should be complemented by a niche-based approach. A services import strategy should aim to strengthen Viet Nam’s infrastructure by focusing on: banking, telecommunications, computer-related services, transport, 186 education and training, and energy-related services. It should also aim to modernize the country’s consumer service base and encourage imports of inputs required for export development. To strengthen innovation and technology transfer, more FDI is needed in distribution, franchising, environment-related services, medical services, safety and security services, and R&D services. 187 CHAPTER 8: CONCLUSIONS The present report has been prepared to assist the Ministry of Planning and Investment and the Interagency Task Force in finalizing the draft of the “Comprehensive Strategy for Services Sector Development” (CSSSD) for subsequent submission to the Government for approval. The report addressed the themes identified in the Terms of Reference: it reviewed the current level of development, the competitiveness and the major development issues of the services sector. It also analyzed the prerequisites for stimulating the growth of the services sector and discussed the institutional issues of services policy making and implementation in Viet Nam. Since the launch of its Doi Moi reform policy, Viet Nam has made considerable progress in economic development and poverty reduction, but this was mainly the result of the contribution of development in agricultural and industrial production and exports, rather than of services. The services sector has developed spectacularly thanks to the Doi Moi reforms, but it does not contribute yet to the country’s growth as it could if it was as developed as in Asian services reforming developing countries. A well-functioning and internationally competitive services sector would be key to the overall economic performance of Viet Nam and to the welfare of its citizens. The Ten-Year SocioEconomic Development Strategy 2001-2010 and the Five-Year Socio- Economic Development Plan 2006-2010 already called for the services sector to contribute directly to the quality of economic development. There are many factors that contribute to the very slow “taking-off” of the services sector in Viet Nam that the Government should address in the framework of the CSSSD. The most important obstacles to the development of an efficient services sector are competition-related: They mainly stem from the dominant (monopoly, duopoly and oligopoly) position of the State in many sectors and from high entry and exit barriers caused by restrictive laws and regulations. All this result in a less than optimal level of competition in services markets. Among the other important impediments to services are: underdeveloped physical infrastructure; scarcity of skilled human resources, inappropriate business environment, low level of entrepreneurship, distorted access to finance by small and medium-sized entreprises, and last but not least the high business cost of corruption. Turning the Vietnamese services sector into the major engine of economic growth requires fundamental reforms of the policies impacting on services productivity. The policy measures outlined in this report can contribute to such reforms and are mutually reinforcing. In order to make the CSSSD a success by the year 2020 it is important that the reforms be started as early as possible since policy makers face the challenge to act on multiple fronts in a relatively short period of time. 188 In order to qualitatively change the development of the services sector in Viet Nam, it would be important that the CSSSD, rather than being a sectoral policy in the traditional sense, should adopt a new policy approach, which puts services sector productivity growth at the centre of Viet Nam’s overall economic policy. By doing so, the CSSSD would maximize the gains for the economy from the strong interlinkages that exist between services productivity growth and manufacturing. During the last 20-25 years, many countries – developing and developed alike – have extensively liberalized their service markets and have reformed service sector regulations. Many have done so on an autonomous - unilateral - basis. In general, services reforms have led to increased competition, better services provision, lower prices and wider choice. Empirical studies of efficiency gains from regulatory reforms in OECD countries show an increase of up to 6 percentage points of GDP, depending on the initial state of regulation in the different countries. Given Viet Nam’s higher restriction base, there is reason to believe that the gains from regulatory reforms would contribute even higher gains. 189 Refer ences Australian Services Roundtable: “Inquiry into the current and future directions of Australia’s service industries”, November 2006 Jonathan Boymal, Bill Martin, Dieu Lam: “The political economy of Internet innovation policy in Viet Nam”, Technology in Society 29 (2007) 407-421 Peter W. Daniels and James W. Harrington: “Services and Economic Development in the Asia-Pacific”, Ashgate, Aldershot 2007 Felix Eschenbach and Bernard Hoekman: Services Policy Reform and Economic Growth in Transition Economies, Review of World Economics, Volume 142, Number 4 / December, 2006 Gabriele, Alberto, Strategic Services Policies and International Trade Integration in Viet Nam, Journal of Economic Integration 20(2), June 2005; 263-293 Gabriele, Alberto, Social services policies in a developing market economy oriented towards socialism: The case of health system reforms in Viet Nam, Review of International Political Economy 13:2 May 2006: 258–289 Katariina Hakkala and Ari Kokko: “The State and the Private Sector in Viet Nam”, Stockholm School of Economics Working Paper 236, June 2007 Yasushi Hirosato and Yuto Kitamura (editors): “The Political Economy of Educational Reforms in Southeast Asia - Cases of Cambodia, Laos and Viet Nam”, Springer Science + Business Media B.V., 2009 Sven Illeris: “The nature of services”, in John R. Bryson and Peter W. Daniels, editors: “The Handbook of Service Industries”, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA, USA, 2007 Ministry of Planning and Investment & United Nations Development Programme (2006): “General Framework for a National Strategy for the Services Sector in Viet Nam up to 2020”, Ha Noi OECD (2005): “Growth in Services: Fostering Employment, Productivity and Innovation”, Paris Tran Quoc Trung et al: “Trade Liberalization and Development in ICT Sector and its impact on household welfare in Viet Nam”, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade Working Paper Series, No. 33, February 2007 (rev. 4/07) Nguyen, Thuy Thu and Mathijs A. van Dijk (2008): Corruption and Growth: Private vs. StateOwned Firms in Viet Nam. Working Paper, Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, the Netherlands 190 ADFAT (Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade). Economic Analytical Unit. (2005). Unlocking China’s Service Sector. Canberra, Australia. Tr.19 BMI Viet Nam 2009, QIII, QI GSO (2000). Socio-economic Statistics of Viet Nam 1975-2000. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House GSO (2004). Viet Nam 20 Years of Reforms and Development (1986-2005). Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House GSO (2008). Statistical Yearbook 2007. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House GSO (2008 and 2009). Annual Report 2008, Quarterly Report I/2009, and Half Year Report I/ 2009 UNDP and MPI. (2006). General Framework for Strategy for Service Sector in Viet Nam to the year 2020. Hanoi Sectoral papers, Serv-2A. (2009). Project “Formulation of the Draft Comprehensive Strategy for Services Sector Development to the Year 2020 and a Vision to 2025” WEF. (2009) Global competitiveness report, 2008-2009. 191 Attachment 1: Government’s Services Action Plan for 2009-2011 Decision No. 961/QD-TTg of 3 July 2009, promulgating the Government’s Programme of Action for service sector development during 2009-2011: THE PRIME MINISTER Pursuant to the December 25, 2001 Law on Organization of the Government; Pursuant to the Government’s Resolution No. 03/2008/NQ-CP of January 11, 2008, promulgating the action program of the Government of the 2007-2011 tenure; At the proposal of the Minister of Planning and Investment, DECIDES: Article 1. To promulgate together with this Decision the Government’s program of action for service development during 2009-2011. Article 2. This Decision takes effect on September 1, 2009. Article 3. Ministers, heads of ministerial-level agencies, heads of government-attached agencies, and chairmen of provincial-level People’s Committees shall implement this Decision. For the Prime Minister Deputy Prime Minister HOANG TRUNG HAI THE GOVERNMENT’S PROGRAMME OF ACTION FOR SERVICE DEVELOPMENT DURING 2009-2011 (Promulgated together with the Prime Minister’s Decision No. 961/QD-TTg of July 3, 2009) I. OBJECTIVES The Government’s programme of action for service development during 2009-2011 aims to: • specify actions - issued together with Resolution No. 03/2008/NQ-CP of January 11, 2008 • develop and improve the competitiveness of the service sector • accelerate international economic integration • realize WTO accession commitments in the service sector • contribute to the successful implementation of the socioeconomic development plan 2006-2010 • serve as a premise for development in subsequent periods. II. MAJOR TASKS 1. Continue to formulate and perfect mechanisms and policies to accelerate the development of the service sector: - To formulate general policies on the development of the service sector in conformity with commitments to the World Trade Organization (WTO); - To perfect investment and business policies; 192 - To scrutinize WTO commitments on services in order to amend, supplement or annul legal documents which are no longer suitable; To perfect the system of tax policies in order to create favorable conditions for service enterprises to operate in an effective manner; increase export turnover and reduce trade deficit in services. 2. Mobilize and promote domestic and overseas resources for the development of the economy in general and the service sector in particular: - To mobilize and effectively use capital sources for quick and sustainable development of the service sector, especially key services; To develop modern financial and monetary markets; intensify the application of scientific advances to developing the financial and monetary markets; To renew financial and monetary instruments and policies and raise the capacity of regulating financial and monetary policies; to ensure financial and monetary security; To socialize high-quality public services. 3. Raise the quality of human resources in the service sector: - - To formulate mechanisms and policies on development of the labor market and human resources and adopt effective policies on vocational training, employment and poverty alleviation; To enhance vocational training for guest workers in order to gradually increase the ratio of trained laborers and enter labor markets with strict requirements on skilled labor. 4. Develop the economy in general and the service sector in particular in association with protecting natural resources and the environment - To promote investment in environmental protection; to increase the management of construction and urban administration activities; To restore, preserve and develop historical and cultural relics, scenic places and beauty spots for socio-economic development. III. ORGANIZATION OF IMPLEMENTATION 1. Based on tasks assigned in the Appendix to this Decision, Ministers and heads of departments shall directly urge and instruct the implementation of this programme of action so as to ensure its quality and schedule; and coordinate with the Government Office in incorporating related contents into the working agenda of the Government or the Prime Minister. 2. Ministries and branches shall send annual reports on the performance of their assigned tasks no later than December 15 every year to the Ministry of Planning and Investment for sum-up and reporting to the Prime Minister. 3. The Ministry of Planning and Investment shall monitor, examine and sum up the implementation of this program of action. 193 4. In the course of implementation, if seeing that this programme needs to be supplemented or adjusted, ministries and branches shall proactively propose supplements and adjustments to the Ministry of Planning and Investment for sum-up and reporting to the Prime Minister for consideration and decision. For the Prime Minister Deputy Prime Minister HOANG TRUNG HAI 194 Appendix: Action by Responsible Agency No. Contents I General Policies 1 Strategy for development of Viet Nam’s service sector to 2020 Formulating and applying safeguard measures in the service sector/sub-sector in conformity with WTO regulations Reviewing WTO accession commitments on the service sector and legal documents incompliant with WTO regulations Policies and measures to improve the investment-business environment Finance - Customs - Banking Securities Law on Independent Audit 2 3 4 II 1 2 3 4 5 Agency in charge Type of Deciding document authority Directing document Due Date Ministry of Planning and Investment Ministries and branches performing line management of service sectors Ministries and branches performing line management of service sectors Ministry of Planning and Investment Strategy Prime Minister 2010 Decision Prime Minister and ministers 2009 Decision Prime Minister Resolution No. 16/2007/ND- 2009 and ministers CP of February 27, 2007 Scheme Prime Minister and ministers Ministry of Finance Draft law for Government submission to the National Assembly Draft law Government 2009, 2011 Draft law Government 2011 Government 2011 Government 2009 Law Amending and Ministry of Finance Supplementing the Law on Insurance Business Securities Law (amended) Ministry of Finance Decree guiding the implementation Ministry of Finance Decree of the Law on Independent Audit Scheme on establishment of export Ministry of Finance in Scheme credit insurance organizations collaboration with the Ministry of Industry 2009 2010 6 7 8 Scheme on socialization of some public services and continued renewal of operation mechanisms of public non-business units Scheme on establishment of the People’s Credit Fund Audit Organization Law on Credit Institutions and Trade Ministry of Finance Prime Minister Official Letter No. 246/TB- 2009 VPCP of September 8, 2008 State Bank of Viet Scheme Nam 2009 State Bank of Viet Nam 2009 9 Scheme on development of the State Bank of Viet monetary market Nam 10 Scheme on renewing financial and monetary instruments and policies and improving the State Bank’s capacity of administering monetary policy Law on Safety Supervision of Banking Activities State Bank of Viet Nam 12 Law on Deposit Insurance State Bank of Viet Nam 13 Law on the State Bank of Viet State Bank of Viet Nam Nam 14 Scheme on developing the State State Bank of Viet Bank into a modern central bank Nam 11 Scheme State Bank of Viet Nam Governor of the State Bank of Viet Nam Draft law for Government Resolution No. submission to 27/2008/QH12 of November the National 15, 2008 Assembly Decision Governor of the State Bank of Viet Nam Decision Governor of Resolution No. the State Bank 23/2008/QH12 of November 6, 2008, and Resolution No. of Viet Nam 30/2008/NQ-CP of December 11, 2008 Draft law for Government submission to the National Assembly Draft law for Government submission to the National Assembly Draft law for Government Resolution No. submission to 27/2008/QH12 of November the National 15, 2008 Assembly Report to the Prime Party’s Minister; 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 15 16 17 18 Political Governor of Bureau or the the State Bank Prime of Viet Nam Minister Scheme on studying and applying State Bank of Viet Decision Governor of Decision No. 94/QD-NHNN 2010 a new management model in the Nam the State Bank of January 16, 2009 State Bank (consisting of two of Viet Nam schemes: (i) scheme on a salary mechanism suitable to the operation of the State Bank; and (ii) scheme on recruitment and use of employees) Scheme on survey and evaluation State Bank of Viet Decision Governor of 2010 and classification of and general Nam the State Bank planning on the network of the of Viet Nam State Bank’s branches Decree replacing Decree No. State Bank of Viet Decree Government Official Letter No. 66/VPCP- 2009 91/1999/ND-CP of September 4, Nam TH of January 20, 2009, 1999, on organization and Official Letter No. operation of the State Bank’s 865/VPCP-TCCV of Inspectorate February 12, 2009, Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP of October 9, 2009, Resolution No. 30/2008/NQCP of December 11, 2008, Decision No. 167/2008/QDTTg of December 12, 2008 and Decision No. 342/QDNHNN of February 19, 2009 Decree amending and State Bank of Viet Decree Government Decision No. 1507/QD- 2009 supplementing Decree No. Nam NHNN of June 25, 2007 202/2004/ND-CP of December 10, 2004, on sanctioning of administrative violations in the 19 20 21 22 23 24 monetary and banking domain Scheme on renewing off-site supervision and information updating Scheme on establishment of cooperative banks Scheme on developing and raising the effectiveness in the management of operation of nonbank credit institutions Scheme on propagating, developing and improving smallscale financial activities in hunger eradication and poverty alleviation Decree replacing Decree No. 49/2000/ND-CP on organization and operation of commercial banks Decree amending and supplementing Decree No. 22/2006/ND-CP on organization and operation of foreign banks’ branches, joint-venture banks, wholly foreign-owned banks and representative offices of foreign credit institutions in Viet Nam State Bank of Viet Scheme Nam Governor of the State Bank of Viet Nam Governor of the State Bank of Viet Nam Official Letter No. 40/CV- 2009 VP of March 31, 2004 State Bank of Viet Scheme Nam Governor of the State Bank of Viet Nam 2010 State Bank of Viet Scheme Nam Governor of the State Bank of Viet Nam 2010 State Bank of Viet Decree Nam Decree 2009 State Bank of Viet Decree Nam Government 2009 State Bank of Viet Scheme Nam Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP of 2009, January 9, 2009, Resolution No. 30/2008/NQ-CP of 2010 December 11, 2008, Resolution No. 30a/2008/NQ-CP of December 27, 2008, Decision No. 167/2008/QD-TTg of December 12, 2008, and Decision No. 342/QDNHNN of February 19, 2009 III 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Legal Services, Arbitration, Commercial Conciliation Drafting a decree guiding the Arbitration Law Formulating a scheme on improving capabilities of arbitrators and arbitration centers Formulating a scheme on organizing commercial arbitration models in Viet Nam Scheme on public notarization planning up to 2020 Drafting a decree on asset auction to replace Decree No. 05/2005/ND-CP Scheme on planning judicial survey staffs Scheme on developing a contingent of lawyers for integration purposes Strategy for developing a contingent of lawyers up to 2020 Amending the Law on Lawyers Ministry of Justice Decree Government Ministry of Justice Scheme Minister Justice of 2010 Ministry of Justice Scheme Prime Minister 2010 Ministry of Justice Scheme Prime Minister 2009 Ministry of Justice Decree Government 2009 Ministry of Justice Scheme Prime Minister 2010 Ministry of Justice Scheme Prime Minister 2009 Ministry of Justice Strategy Prime Minister 2010 Ministry of Justice Draft law for Government submission to the National Assembly Draft law for Government submission to the National Assembly 10 Elaborating the Law on Asset Ministry of Justice Auction IV Transport 1 Perfecting the system of Ministry of Transport environmental standards in the transport domain Decision Minister Transport 2010 2011 2011 of 2009 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 V 1 2 3 4 Formulating a general strategy on development of transport and transport support services Formulating and implementing a plan on training cadres and public employees to meet requirements in the new period Scheme on planning coastal expressway Scheme on developing a passenger transport route along the coast Planning on the development of Tan Son Nhat airport Planning on the development of a highway network Overall planning on development of sea transport up to 2020 Science and Technology Ministry of Transport Decision Prime Minister 2009 Ministry of Transport Decision Minister Transport of 2011, 2012 Ministry of Transport Scheme Prime Minister 2009 Ministry of Transport Scheme Prime Minister 2009 Ministry of Transport Scheme Prime Minister 2009 Ministry of Transport Scheme Prime Minister 2009 Ministry of Transport Scheme Prime Minister 2009 Scheme on the National Technology Renewal Fund Program on the development of scientific and technological enterprises and support for the shift of public scientific and technological organizations to operate under the mechanism of autonomy and self-responsibility Scheme on establishing a system of public services on industrial property Scheme on formulating and implementing the national program on improving productivity and quality of Vietnamese enterprises Ministry of Science Scheme and Technology Ministry of Science Program and Technology Prime Minister 2009 Prime Minister 2009 Ministry of Science Scheme and Technology Minister of Science and Technology Prime Minister 2011 Ministry of Science Scheme and Technology 2009 5 VI 1 2 3 VII 1 2 3 4 5 up to 2020 Scheme on the national technology Ministry of Science Scheme renewal fund and the national hi- and Technology tech venture fund Information and Communications Prime Minister 2010 Scheme on raising competitiveness and accelerating the export of Viet Nam’s electronic and telecommunications products Elaborating a list of domestically available information technology products and services Ministry Information Communications of Scheme and Prime Minister 2009 Ministry Information Communications of Decision and 2009, 2010 Planning for the development of information technology and communications up to 2020 Labor-Employment - Human Resource Development Scheme on development of a labor market in Viet Nam up to 2020 Ministry Information Communications of Scheme and Minister of Information and Communicatio ns Prime Minister Scheme Prime Minister Resolution No. 25/2006/NQ- 2009 CP of October 9, 2006 Strategy Prime Minister 2009 Decision Prime Minister 2009 Strategy Prime Minister 2010 Strategy Prime Minister 2010 Strategy on human resource development up to 2020 Scheme on renewal and development of vocational training during 2008-2010 Ten-year (2011-2020) strategy and five-year (2011-2015) plan on employment Ten-year (2011-2020) strategy and five-year (2011-2015) plan on vocational training Ministry of Labor, War Invalids and Social Affairs Ministry of Planning and Investment Ministry of Labor, War Invalids and Social Affairs Ministry of Labor, War Invalids and Social Affairs Ministry of Labor, War Invalids and Social Affairs 2009 6 7 8 9 10 VIII 1 2 IX Ten-year (2011-2020) strategy and five-year (2011-2015) plan on poverty alleviation Strategy on labor export up to 2020 Ministry of Labor, War Strategy Invalids and Social Affairs Ministry of Labor, War Scheme Invalids and Social Affairs Scheme on supporting poor Ministry of Labor, War Scheme districts to accelerate labor export, Invalids and Social contributing to fast and sustainable Affairs poverty alleviation during 20092015 Scheme on vocational training for Ministry of Labor, War Scheme demobilized armymen Invalids and Social Affairs Prime Minister 2010 Prime Minister Resolution No. 25/2006/ND- 2009 CP of October 9, 2006 Prime Minister Decision No. 12/2009/QD- 2009 TTg of January 19, 2009 Prime Minister Scheme on vocational training for Ministry of Labor, War Scheme rural laborers up to 2020 Invalids and Social Affairs Distribution Prime Minister Notice No. 58/TB-VPCP of 2009 February 23, 2009, and Resolution No. 30/2008/NQCP of December 11, 2008 Notice No. 56/TB-VPCP of 2009 February 20, 2009 Scheme on supervision of the distribution system to fight counterfeit goods and protect consumers Planning on development of essential commodities for production and social life, paying attention to oil and petrol, construction steel, fertilizers, food, cement and medicines through combining the production system with the distribution system Construction - Urban Centers Real Estate - Environment Ministry of Industry Scheme and Trade Prime Minister Resolution No. 22/2008/ND- 2009 CP of September 23, 2008 Ministry of Industry Scheme and Trade in coordination with relevant ministries and branches Prime Minister Notice No. 133/TB-VPCP of 2009 April 20, 2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Mechanisms and policies to Ministry of Planning encourage investment in and Investment environmental protection Overall planning on collection and Ministry of treatment of solid wastes Construction and Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment Law on House and Land Tax Ministry of Finance Decree, Decision Prime Minister 2009 Planning scheme Prime Minister 2009 Scheme Prime Minister 2009 Strategy on development of human resources in the construction sector up to 2020 Scheme on development of the real estate market Ministry Construction of Strategy Prime Minister 2010 Ministry Construction of Scheme 2009 Scheme on development of publicduty houses Overall report on housing policies for social beneficiaries Ministry Construction Ministry Construction of Scheme Party’s Political Bureau Prime Minister 2009 Planning scheme on consolidated rural residential quarters in areas affected by natural disasters Scheme on development of urban centers up to 2025, according to adjusted overall orientations on the development of Viet Nam’s urban center system up to 2015, and a vision toward 2050 Scheme on studying on the development of coastal urban centers in response to climate change Ministry Construction of Scheme Party’s Political Bureau Prime Minister Ministry Construction of Scheme Party’s Political Bureau 2009 Ministry Construction of Scheme Prime Minister 2009 of Report 2009 2009 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Scheme on increasing the capability of appraising construction work quality Scheme on formulating a model mechanism and encouraging various economic sectors to invest in urban technical infrastructure projects Scheme on replacing baked materials with non-baked materials Strategy on development of the construction industry up to 2020 Decree amending and supplementing a number of articles of Decree No. 99/2007/ND-CP on management of construction investment costs Decree on contracts in construction activities National strategy on development environmental technologies up to 2020 Scheme on assurance of the mobilization of land- and real estate-related rights under the market mechanism as a capital source for production and business activities Scheme on development of environmental services in conformity with WTO commitments to serve attraction of foreign investment capital Scheme on socialization of water Ministry Construction of Scheme Prime Minister 2009 Ministry Construction of Scheme Prime Minister 2009 Ministry Construction Ministry Construction Ministry Construction of Scheme Prime Minister 2010 of Strategy Prime Minister 2010 of Decree Government 2009 Ministry Construction Ministry of Resources Environment Ministry of Resources Environment of Decree Government 2009 Natural Strategy and Prime Minister 2011 Natural Scheme and Prime Minister Resolution No. 22/2008/NQ- 2010 CP of September 24, 2008 Ministry of Resources Environment Natural Scheme and Prime Minister Directive No. 15/2007/CT- 2009 TTg of June 22, 2007 Ministry Natural Scheme Prime Minister 2011 of 21 22 X 1 2 3 services and development of a multi-sectional water economy in conformity with the socialismoriented market economy Scheme on the collection of charges for environmental services in the protection of the river basin environment, which will be applied on a trial basis to the basins of Cau, Nhue, Day and Dong Nai rivers Scheme on increasing meteorological and hydrological activities along the line of commercialization Culture - Social Affairs - Sports Tourism Draft decree on mobilization of non-state sources for investment in the development of socio-cultural domains (culture, healthcare, education and training, sports and physical training) Formulating mechanisms and policies on further socializing the restoration, preservation and development of historical relics and beauty spots for economic and social development Overall planning and policies to support the development of cultural, recreation and entertainment establishments for children Resources Environment and Ministry of Resources Environment Natural Scheme and Minister of Natural Resources and Environment 2010 Ministry of Resources Environment Natural Scheme and Minister of Natural Resources and Environment 2011, 2012 Ministry of Planning Decree and Investment Government 2009, 2010 Ministry of Culture, Scheme Sports and Tourism Prime Minister 2009, 2010 Ministry of Culture, Planning Sports and Tourism scheme Prime Minister 2009, 2010 4 5 6 Scheme on restoration of historical-cultural, historicalrevolutionary and war relics, preservation, maintenance and development of UNESCOrecognized natural and cultural heritages up to 2010, and a vision toward 2020 Formulating mechanisms and policies to encourage the development of the system of counseling and caring services for elderly people Formulating a plan on communication on family-related issues Ministry of Culture, Scheme Sports and Tourism Prime Minister, 2009, 2010 Ministry of Health Prime Minister, Minister Health 2009 Decision Ministry of Culture, Decision Sports and Tourism of Prime Minister, Minister of Culture, Sports and Tourism 2009, 2011 Attachment 2: Proposed Services Policy Consultative & Implementation Mechanism Office of the Prime Minister or Office of Government Role: Policy and Planning Direction, Coordination, Oversight Ad Hoc Issue-Specific Work Ad Hoc IssueSpecific Working Groups Role: - To examine specific issues in depth as requested by the Executive Group -- - To commission expert research and analysis as necessary, with clear ToRs - To consult with relevant stakeholders - To provide recommendations and action plans to Executive Group and otherwise assist it in evaluation and decision-making Comprised of highly motivated working-level officers from relevant agencies, business associations, NGOs, academia, and experts Executive Group Role: - To actively drive and monitor services policy implementation, including international obligations and sectoral strategies - To discuss and evaluate specific services policy issues, with the aim of providing well considered policy advice to the Prime Minister and Government - To establish, as necessary, ad hoc Working Groups to analyse specific issues and develop policy options/recommendations and action plans - To prepare an annual Work Programme and Action Plan, fitting into the 5-Year Plan - To monitor results against milestones - To take action as necessary to push things along - To issue an annual report - To brief Parliament and PM on progress at least annually - To enhance awareness of services policy issues, including through the media ↓↑ Services/Trade Policy Think Tanks Role: - To provide rigorous analysis and innovative thinking on specific services sector and trade policy issues - To further develop services and trade policy analytical capacity - To network with regional counterparts and participate in regional and international debate on services sector issues, including services trade matters Comprised of local analysts, researchers, academics Comprised of Ministries involved in priority services sector policy formulation and implementation, led by MPI as lead Services coordinating agency Attachment 3: Draft Trade Policy Consultative & Implementation Mechanism Minister of Industry and Trade Role: Leadership, Policy Direction, Oversight, Trade Policy Consultative Group Role: - To meet regularly to discuss and evaluate specific trade policy issues, with the aim of providing well considered policy advice to Government - To assist in monitoring and encouraging implementation efforts - To suggest analysis and work on specific issues, setting up issue-specific Working Groups to develop recommendations - To enhance awareness of trade policy issues, including through the media - To increase participation in and ownership of policymaking Comprised of representatives of selected Ministries, private sector associations, NGOs, academia. Core Implementation Group Role: - To actively oversee implementation of WTO commitments and other trade policy programmes - To prepare annual Work Programme and Action Plan - To monitor results against milestones - To take action if necessary to push things along - To meet monthly, with focused agendas - To issue minutes and annual report - To brief Parliament and PM - To meet Consultative Group to discuss specific priority issues Comprised of Ministries involved in WTO accession and trade policy implementation, led by Trade Ministry. ___________________________________________ Trade Policy Think Tanks Issue-Specific Working Groups Role: - To examine specific issues in depth as requested by Trade Policy CG - To commission expert research and analysis as necessary, with clear ToRs - To provide policy suggestions and options to TP CG and otherwise assist evaluation and decision-making Comprised of interested mid-level officers from Trade Policy Consultative Group members. Role: - To provide rigorous analysis and innovative thinking on specific trade policy issues - To further develop domestic trade policy analytical capacity - To network with regional counterparts and participate in regional and international debate 208 PART II: SECTORAL REPORTS CHAPTER 1: BUSINESS AND PROFESSIONAL SERVICES 1.1 Business and pr ofessional ser vices 1.1.1 General features Business and professional services comprise of important supporting services for the economy like legal services, accounting and auditing services, taxation services, engineering services, computer services, research and development services, advertising services, market research services, management consultant services, services incidental to mining, manufacturing, agriculture, etc. Although being quite new in Viet Nam, business and professional services are among the fastest growing areas in Viet Nam. The reason lies in the fact that business and professional services are areas where small and medium sized enterprises (SME) have advantages while most of Viet Nam’s enterprises are SMEs. In recent years, Viet Nam’s SMEs are developing and growing at high rate and become the most dynamic sector in the economy, many of which involving in supplying of business and professional services. From the overall economic perspective, business and professional services play the supporting role for the whole Viet Nam’s economy, which has record remarkable growth rates in the last 20 years (the annual growth rate in the last 20 years averaged at about 7%). Although economic growth in terms of quantity is remarkable, the quality of growth has not been analyzed intensively, however, many studies have shown that the efficiency and competitiveness of the economy depend to a certain extent on the efficiency of business and professional services. With the fast development of business and professional services, more and more enterprises and even people get used to using those services, however, the ratio of enterprises which know about and use the services is still limited. Markets for business and professional services mostly concentrate in major cities like Ho Chi Minh City and Ha Noi. A research carried out by Viet Nam’s Chamber of Commerce (VCCI) and GTZ-SME Promotion Project in 2006 showed that Ho Chi Minh city and Ha Noi accounted for 90% market shares of business development services (mostly important business and professional services like accounting and auditing services, legal services, management services, marketing and advertising, technical consulting services, etc). However, many enterprises have not used business and professional services. This fact also explains why the market scale for business and professional services remains quite limited. The legal environment for business and professional services in Viet Nam has been improving, creating an improving framework for the establishment and operation of services suppliers. However, many business and professional services are still subject to general legal framework like Investment Law, Law on Enterprise, without any specific regulation, this fact also contribute to the lack of adequate supervision, especially in terms of services quality. As 209 a result, the Government should pay attention to the actual development of many business and professional services and consider the need to have specific regulations on these services. - The prominent features relating to operations, legal framework and environment for the development of business and professional services in Viet Nam are: - The market structure is characterized by a lot of small and medium sized services suppliers, competing with each other mostly through prices rather than quality; Many services just recently appear and are just at an “infant” stage of development. There are also services previously provided “in-house” by enterprises, especially services incidental to agriculture ore manufacturing; - Although becoming more simplified, the licensing procedures are still complicated and time consuming, which have been identified as an obstacle in the business environment of enterprises. - There has been a lack of professional standards as well as proper supervision from the government or professional associations on the services provided by enterprises as well as on the quality of services. - Although Viet Nam has a young and intelligent labour force, the training system to provide qualified professionals for those services is weak, hampering their development. One of the reasons is the lack of attention from services suppliers on the training for their staff as well as on cooperation with training institutions. - There is no detail statistics on development of business and professional services. Even with important services like legal services, accounting and auditing services, statistics is scattered. This fact may cause difficulties for policy makers in considering appropriate policies and measures on those services. As a result, the key conditions for the development of business and professional services is to simplify licensing procedures, promoting strict professional standards, increasing the supervision over implementation of these standards as well as improving the data collection work. Together with the promotion of professional standards, the Government should encourage the discussions and signing of mutual recognition agreements between Viet Nam and other countries since small and medium services suppliers or their associations may not have sufficient resources to promote such agreements. Another important feature in the environment for the development of Viet Nam’s business and professional services has been the opening of the market for trade in professional services. The most comprehensive and profound commitments on trade in business and professional services have been made when Viet Nam acceded to the WTO. Viet Nam’s WTO commitments for business services cover 26 out of 46 sub-sectors (out of the total of 46). They include professional services (for instance legal, accounting, taxation, architecture, engineering etc.), computer, research and development and other business support services (e.g. advertising, market research, sevices incidental to agriculture, mining and 210 manufacturing). For all those services Viet Nam has generally permitted, with a few exceptions, cross-border supply and consumption abroad. However, establishment of commercial presence for foreign suppliers of business services is still subjec to certain restrictions, including limitations on the scope of permitted activities, the forms of establishment permitted, limitation to foreign capital participation, reservation of transition periods for further market opening and other limitations. From the imlementation perspective, Viet Nam has implemented its GATS and other international commitments on business and professional services closely. However, it seems that while paying attention to international obligations, there is a lack of attention to the real needs of the economy, especially in areas when no commitments have been made. In many cases, the participation of foreign sides should be considered from the needs of the economy, rather than on just follow “mechanically” GATS commitments. The characteristics and issues for business and professional services to Viet Nam economy has been pointed out by a study by UNDP: - The quality of business services is a critical factor in firms’ competitiveness; - While the majority of firms choose to compete on service quality, the quality of services that firms are either providing or consuming is far from sufficient quality for their competitiveness, which implies several quality issues of services in Viet Nam in general and of business services in particular. - The price of business service inputs continues to affect firms’ competitiveness; - There is a need for further removal of barriers to providing quality business services, given the important role that they play in affecting the competitiveness of all economic activity and also in job creation. - Further work is required on the part of the Government in order to further improve the regulatory framework for the strong development and growth of the business services sector. Box 1: Business development services in Viet Nam-a survey The research carried out by VCCI and GTZ-SME Promotion Project focus on the “business development services” in Viet Nam, most of them are business and professional services like accounting and auditing services, legal services, business management training services, business consultancy, advertisements, market research, product design services, exhibition services, internet information services, vocational training, IT services, etc. The research was carried out through interviews with more than 1,200 enterprises in 6 major cities and provinces, i.e. Ha Noi, Hai Phong, Da Nang, Ho Chi Minh city, Binh Duong and Dong Nai). The research shows that, among others, Ho Chi Minh city and Ha Noi held more than 90% of the market share of business development services (Ho Chi Minh city accounts 211 for more than 60%. The market volume for those services in 2001 was just more than VND 400 billions. Details of market volume are as follows: Market volume for business development services: (in VND) Accounting and auditing services: Legal services: Management training services: Advertisements and promotion services: Market research: Product design: Exhibition services Quality and environmental services: Information system services: Computer services: Internet information services: Vocational and technical training services: Technology consultancy services: TOTAL: 45.799.674.021 14.283.011.464 2.720.368.513 84.305.746.486 4.002.973.065 20.783.112.707 8.999.796.178 6.655.306.372 3.292.531.054 8.341.977.266 7.799.876.651 10.423.743.747 19.408.528.763 412.819.539.662 Source: Business development services Survey by VCCI, GTZ and Swisscontact, 2003. 1.2 Pr ofessional ser vices 1.2.1 Legal services, arbitration and conciliation services for commercial disputes between businesses Legal services, arbitration and conciliation services (hereinafter referred to as “legal” services) have been developing gradually in recent years, services have become more diversified and services’ quality is improving. It can be said that legal services have been playing the supporting role for many activities of businesses and people in Viet Nam, from the establishment of enterprises to their everyday operations. The forms and activities of legal services providers are also expanded. With respect to the sector’s structure, it is characterized by a large number of services providers, mostly law offices. However, the quality of services provided by those services providers is still limited, especially in such fields of international trade, business, etc. From the “demand” side, although legal services were a strange concept for most people and enterprises in the last decade, nowadays, to a certain extent, enterprises have understood the importance of legal services. However, not many people and enterprises get used to legal consultancy and other services. The training system for legal practitioners and lawyers is quite comprehensive as compared with other business and professional services. There are universities specializing on training 212 law students, there are also many law faculties in Universities. However, it seems that the training curriculum in those law Universities and faculties does not keep pace with practical a development, that’s why students graduating from law schools and laws faculties usually do not meet the requirements from practical work. The legal framework for legal services in Viet Nam includes (i) the Law on Lawyers; (ii) Ordinance on Commercial Arbitration; (iii) Decree 28/2007/ND-CP of 26/02/2007 guiding the implementation of the Law on Lawyers; and (iv) and Decree 65/2003/ND-CP of 11/6/2003 on Organization and Operation of Legal Consultancy. These laws and regulations have provided for rights, obligations of lawyers and lawyers organizations. With respect to the participation of foreign lawyers and lawyer organizations, so far, there have been many forms of presence of foreign lawyer organizations and foreign law firms in Viet Nam like Baker & McKenzie, Vovan & Associés, Russin & Vecchi, Lucy Wayne & Associates, Clifford Chance, etc. The scopes of operation for branches of foreign lawyer organizations and foreign laws firms have been expanded, for example they can create partnerships with Viet Nam’s lawyer organizations to provide consultancy services on Vietnamese laws. Although the conditions for operation of lawyers and lawyers’ organizations have been improved, but the quality of legal services in Viet Nam is still limited, this limitation has been most clearly demonstrated in the economic, trade and investment areas. There are few lawyers who understand international rules and laws on those areas, which have put Viet Nam’s enterprises and investors at a disadvantages position when doing business with foreign partners. The impact of this limitation is becoming more adverse when Viet Nam is integrating further into the world economy. GATS commitments With respect to international commitments to open its legal services, Viet Nam has undertaken commitments on legal, advisory and representation services in different fields of law (CPC 861), but excluding participation in legal proceedings in the capacity of defenders or representatives of their clients before the courts of Viet Nam, and legal documentation and certification services of the laws of Viet Nam. Foreign lawyer organisations are permitted to establish commercial presence in Viet Nam in the form of branches or subsidiaries of foreign lawyers’ organisations, foreign law firms or partnerships betwen foreign lawyers’ organisations and Vietnamese law partnerships. Commercial presence of foreign lawyers’ organisations are only permitted to provide consultastion on Vietnamese law if the consulting lawyer has graduated from a Vietnamese law college and satisfies requirements applied to like Vietnamese law practicioners. Viet Nam has granted national treatment for commercial presence of foreign lawyers’ organisations in Viet Nam. Regarding temporary movement of foreign lawyers into Viet Nam for the supply of legal services, only the categories of service suppliers defined in the horizontal part of Viet Nam’s Schedule are permitted to enter the country. 213 For arbitration and conciliation services, Viet Nam has made unlimited commitments relating to cross-border supply and consumption abroad. Commercial presence is unbound for three years after WTO accession. After that (from 11 January 2010), no restrictions will apply. With the openning up of the market for legal services, competition pressure will increase, bringing about both advantages and disadvantages for local services suppliers, espcially in the area of international trade and economic laws. In order to develop the legal services, the following issues should be considered by the regulatory authority: - Simplify the licensing procedures for the services, paying attention to the qualification requirements rather than the procedures themselves; - Upgrading training curriculum in law universities and faculties, making them keep pace with latest practical developments; - Providing training opportunities and programs for lawyers, especially in areas relating to language training, international trade, investment; - -Supporting information dissemination programs to increase the understanding and perception of enterprises and people on the importance and usefulness of legal services. 1.2.2 Accounting, Auditing, Bookkeeping and Taxation Services Accounting, auditing and bookkeeping services play the pivotal role for the economy in general and for the operation of enterprises in particular. Accounting services bring benefits to not only enterprises but also investors, management agencies and the whole economy. The current legal framework for accounting, auditing, bookkeeping and taxation services consists of (i) Law on accounting; (ii) Tax Law; (iii) Decree No. 129/2004/ND-CP guiding the implementation of the Tax Law; (iv) Decree No. 105/2004/ND-CP on independent auditing; (v) Decree No. 133/2005/ND-CP and; (iv) guiding documents. The legal framework has created favourable conditions for the development of accounting, auditing and bookkeeping services. The professional standards have also promulgated and improved, making important contribution to guiding, improving quality of accounting, auditing and bookkeeping services. There are also two important professional associtions, which are Viet Nam Accounting and Auditing Association and Viet Nam Association of CPAs, creating professional fora to exchange knowledge, experiences, new laws and regulations, thus improving the capability for accountants and auditors. From the starting point of just two accounting and auditing services, there are more than 160 enterprises providing financial and accounting, auditing consultancy services with a total number of more than 5,000 staff, of which 1,500 people are CPAs and nearly 1,000 people have registered for practicing services, belong to all economic sectors (state-owned, private, 214 foreign invested) with hundreds of branches and offices nationwide. Among the enterprised licenced by the Ministry of Finance in 2007, 2008 to provide accounting, auditing services for enterprises, there are nearly 20 services providers granted the rights to privide auditing services to securities companies and listed enterprises. The market has been open for the participation of foreign services providers. There have been four 100% foreign invested service prividers operating in Viet Nam, which are KPMG, PwC, Grant Thornton, Ernst & Young and nearly 10 Viet Nam’s accounting and auditing enterprises recognized by major international accounting and auditing companies as their members like A&C, U&I, UHY, ACPA, ACA Group, AC&C, Vietauditor, DTL, etc. The operation of those accounting and auditing enterprises in Viet Nam has promoted further competition, forcing service providers to continuously improve services’ quality. This has been making important contribution to the development of the accounting and auditing service in Viet Nam. In terms of revenues, after more than 15 years of development, the total revenue of the sector has achieved remarkable growth. In 2006, the total revenue reached an encouraging number of VND 888 billions, this demonstrated the efforts made by accounting, auditing and book keeping services suppliers as well as the wider acceptance of the market for those services. Although having achieved significant developments, the accounting, auditing and bookkeeping sector in Viet Nam still has many limitations: Firstly, the competitiveness of most accounting, auditing services suppliers remains low, except for a few suppliers being members of international companies and 100% foreign invested enterprises, most of the remaining companies have not been able to follow international standards. As a result, Viet Nam’s accounting and auditing enterprises will face difficulties, given the new competitive environment when Viet Nam has become a full Member of the WTO. Secondly, the number of accountants and auditors is still low and their capability remains limited. Meanwhile, the training activities only receive attention in major companies. Thirdly, accounting services have not been widely used. Among the services provided by accounting and financial services suppliers, accounting services make up only 5-10%. More generally, the profitability of accounting and auditing services remains limited. Fourth, the system of accounting and auditing services have not been completed, there is not enough necessary legal documents to control the quality of accounting and auditing services provided. GATS commitments Viet Nam undertook commitments without limitations for accounting and auditing and bookkeeping services (CPC 862). According to CPC, these services include financial auditing (86211), accounting review (86212), compilation of financial statement services (86213), 215 bookkeeping services except tax returns (86220) and other ather accounting services (86219) such as such as attestations, valuations, preparation services of pro forma statements. Viet Nam committed to these services in modes 1, 2 and 3. Accordingly, foreign accounting firms can provide services with the only limitation stated in the horizontal section of the GATS Schedule. In particular, foreign auditing and bookkeeping companies can provide cross-border services without having a commercial presence in Viet Nam. Regarding mode 4, accountants and auditors may be considered as “specialists”, therefore they shall benefit from the specific horizontal commitments for this category of providers. National treatment shall apply for all certification activities of foreign auditing and bookkeeping companies. In addition to commitments made under WTO, Viet Nam has also committed to market opening for accounting and auditing services under regional FTAs. Agreement within ASEAN is deemed to be the most important, according to which complete liberalization (on all four modes) has been targeted for achievement by 2015. Nevertheless, such commitments are currently undergoing negotiation for specific and detailed roadmap. For taxation services, Viet Nam committed business tax planning and consulting services (CPC 86301), business tax preparation and review services (CPC 86302), individual tax preparation and planning services (CPC 86303) and other tax related services (CPC 86309), defined as “services consisting in assisting enterprises in tax planning and control other than income tax and preparing all documentation required by law”. Full commitment has been agreed for Modes 1 and 2. Accordingly, foreign companies can provide all tax services to Vietnamese persons without having to establish a commercial presence in the country. Commercial presence is fully bound with two limitations: + For 1 year after the date of accession (until 11 January, 2008), licenses would be granted on a case-by-case basis, with the number of service providers decided by the Ministry of Finance 'based on the development of the market of Viet Nam' (economic need text). It is specified that the main criteria for the economic need text include the number and the operation of enterprises in the market and their impact on the stability of the market and the economy + During the same period of time, foreign-invested enterprises providing taxation services will be allowed to supply services to foreign-invested enterprises and foreign funded projects in Viet Nam. Together with Viet Nam’s integration process is the growing confidence of foreign investors on Viet Nam’s market. Viet Nam will have chances to attract more foreign investment, however, there will be more competition and accounting services will be an important management tool which nearly all enterprises should pay attention to. The requirements for transparent financial information and “clean” accounting data to gain trusts from investors will open a vast market for accounting and auditing services providers. In order to develop 216 the sector and market effectively, there should be positive guidance for economic operators in the market: - From the Government: the Government should establish and develop a complete legal framework to ensure a level playing field for the development of enterprises in general and accounting, auditing, bookkeeping services providers in particular. More specifically: + The Ministry of Finance should review, update and improve the set of corporate accounting standards, promulgating new standards, etc + The Ministry of Finance should issue the Regulation on management of accounting practicing. + Improving and completing regulations on responsibility of accounting, auditing services suppliers towards the quality of services provided. + Enhancing penalty mechanisms for violations of professional ethics; + The Government should simplify the licensing procedures and transfer the management role of accounting, auditing and bookkeeping services from the Government to professional associations. - From professional organizations: + VAA and VACPA should increase their capability and social responsibility; reform them, taking active approach on their operations to become independent, highly professional organizations. Those organizations should also be able to carry out effectively training programs and supervising responsibility. + Enhance the supervision of professional organizations on the activities of accounting and auditing services providers. + Ministry of Finance, VAA and VACPA should carry out necessary procedures so that Viet Nam’s CPAs are recognized regionally and internationally. From the part of training institutions: + They should increase the training quality for students, participants, attention should be paid to enhance ethnics requirements for accounting and auditing professions. + Training programs and curricula should be updated to follow latest development in reality and best practices so that Viet Nam’s certificates can be recognized; - From the part of services providers: they should establish and improve their requirements and enhance the supervision over accounting activities, ensuring quality through professional requirements and procedures for services suppliers and accountants, auditors; 217 - Viet Nam’s accounting services suppliers should follow strictly professional standards and requirements established by professional organizations. They should also associate and support each other to develop common strengths and advantages; 1.2.3 Architectural services; engineering services; integrated engineering services; urban planning and urban landscape architectural services Architectural, engineering and integrated engineering services have been developing very significantly in Viet Nam recent years, mostly thanks to the fast growing economy and a booming real estate services. Real estate is also the area which attracts most foreign investment. In 2007 only, foreign direct investment in the real estate area reached USD 5 billions, accounting for 25% of the total registered FDI in Viet Nam, the corresponding number in 2008 was 36.8%. The legal framework for architectural, engineering and integrated engineering, urban planning and urban landscape architectural services in Viet Nam includes: - Decree No 12/CP to amend the previous Decree of the Government - Decree No 88/1999/ND-CP on the issuance of tender regulations - Decree No 14/CP to amend the Decree 88/1999/ND-CP on the issuance of tender regulations - Decree No. 16/2005/NP-CP of 7 February 2005 - Decision No. 15/2005/QD-BXD - Decree No. 29/2007/ND-CP on urban planning management The number of services providers is growing very fast, most of which are small and medium sized enterprises. The market is characterized by a big number of private, small and medium sized enterprises competing with a few foreign directed enterprises and state owned ones. However, the quality of service receives insufficient attention. The standards on the quality of services supplied are not up to date and there is a lack of supervision mechanism on the implementation of those standards. In reality, Viet Nam has allowed joint-ventures and 100 per cent foreign invested to provide services in Viet Nam. In terms of number of services providers, statistics show that there have been more than 600 architectural, engineering and integrated engineering services providers in Viet Nam, of which class I and class II enterprises (or equivalent) account for nearly 50%, the remaining of them are class III or class IV enterprises at local level. Out of more than 600 services providers, State owned enterprises account for about 75%, foreign invested enterprises account for 3% and private ones account for 22%. So far, the activities of those services providers mostly focus on designing services (accounting to nearly 50-60% of their revenues), surveillance (10-20%). According to experts in the sector, the activities of joint-ventures have not been as efficient as expected because foreign partners have not 218 brought their leading experts/engineers to Viet Nam, the technologies they bring to Viet Nam is also not the most up-to-date ones. Although the number of services providers is increasing at a high rate, the cooperation among services providers is still limited. Associations of architectural, engineering and integrated engineering services providers have not played active roles in promotion of such cooperation. The urban planning and urban landscape architectural services have not developed in Viet Nam since they have been provided by government departments, agencies. Viet Nam’s enterprises therefore have little experiences in those areas. Just very recently, there are some urban planning activities using services provided by services providers (private or foreign enterprises). With respect to the demand, although Vietnamese people have paid attention to the importance of architectural, engineering and integrated engineering services, market is still limited to big cities like Ho Chi Minh and Hanoi. People in rural still rarely use the services, perhaps mostly due to habits and economic reasons. With respect to professional standards, the standards in Viet Nam are set by the Government rather than by professional associations. The professional associations also do not pay proper attention to strengthening and supervising the implementation of those standards, leading to the fact that quality of services provided may vary, putting consumers at a disadvantage position. GATS Commitments Viet Nam’s commitments in these service sectors are quite liberal, although there are some limitations which have not been applied in reality. Viet Nam undertook to fully open crossborder trade and allow unrestricted consumption abroad, investment trade (commercial presence) is allowed to enterprises which are juridical persons in their home countries. For the period of two years from the date of accession, 100 per cent foreign-invested enterprises may only provide services to foreign-invested enterprises in Viet Nam. For urban planning and urban landscape architectural services, 100% foreign-invested enterprises may be established only 2 years after WTO accession. The supply by foreigners of services related to topographical, geotechnical, hydro-geological and environmental surveys and technical surveys for urban-rural development planning, sectoral development planning are subject to the authorization of the Government of Viet Nam. In order to create an enabling environment for architectural, engineering and integrated engineering, urban planning and urban landscape architectural services, the Government should simplify the licensing procedures and gradually transfer the management role to professional associations. Professional standards are the deciding factor for the development of the sector and should be given priorities by both government and professional organizations. On their part, professional institutions should increase their capacity and capability on promulgation of new standards and supervision on the implementation of those standards. 219 1.2.4 Veterinary services These services are very new to Viet Nam. Although Viet Nam is an agricultural country, agricultural services in general and veterinary services in particular have been usually done “in house”. The market has just been developing in recent years, although very limited. There are no study on existing situation of the market, however, with the fast development of the agriculture sector and the diversification of services present in the market, it can be seen that the sector has huge potential for development. Veterinary services are also subject to general laws and regulations like Law on Enterprises, Law on Investment and their guiding documents. There is no specific regulation for veterinary services; however, there are several regulations on agricultural activities which may relate to veterinary services. GATS commitments Upon its WTO accession, Viet Nam has opened up the following sectors: services for pets and other veterinary services delivered to animals other than pets. In these sectors, no limitations apply to cross-border provision and consumption abroad. As regards commercial presence, no limitations apply for national treatment commitments, however as regards market access commitments, access is granted to natural persons exclusively for the conduct of private professional practice and under the authorization of veterinary authorities. Moreover, Viet Nam also makes commitments to allow specialists in the area to temporarily enter and stay in Viet Nam as intra-corporate transferees for a certain period of time. Veterinary services are very pre-mature in Viet Nam and the most important policy for the government to encourage the development of this sector is to create an enabling environment, especially through simplifying the licensing procedures. 1.3 Computer and r elated ser vices Computer and related services have been developing very fast in Viet Nam recently, thanks to the revolutionary evolvements of the information technologies. Major features of the services include high number of private, small and medium sized enterprises. The types of services provided are also increasing, including consultancy services, software development and implementation services, data processing services, database services, maintenance and repair services. The structure of the computer and related services is characterized by a few major enterprises and numerous small and medium sized ones. The number of services providers increase day by day, most of them is SMEs. The competition is fierce, mostly through prices. There is a lack of adequate mechanisms to supervise the quality of services provided. The role of professional associations is limited, especially in terms of setting quality standards and supervision of the implementation of those standards. 220 Although being considered as having competitive advantages with respects to computer and related services, Viet Nam is facing with the challenges of training qualified engineers and people in the area. It has been estimated that in order to serve the development needs of the IT sector and the economy, Viet Nam should have 12,000-15,000 new engineers each year in the 2008-2010 period. Computer and related services are subject to general laws and regulations in Viet Nam like Law on Enterprises, Law on Investment, etc. There has been no specific Law governing these services. However, the government has been supportive of the development of the Information Technology in general and computer and related services in particular. GATS Commitments When acceding to the WTO, Viet Nam committed all computer and related services, i.e. consultancy services related to the installation of computer hardware, software implementation services, data processing services, data base services, maintenance and repair services of office machinery and equipment including computers, and other computer services. Mode 1: Viet Nam has made full commitments both in terms of Market Access and National Treatment. There is no specific restriction in Vietnamese laws on cross border supply of computer and related services. In particular, Article 75.2.b of the Commercial Law provides the legal basis for this mode of service supply. Unless otherwise provided for by law or treaties to which Viet Nam is a contracting party, merchants shall have the rights to use services provided in the territory of Viet Nam by non-residents of Viet Nam. Mode 2: Viet Nam has made full commitments both in terms of Market Access and National Treatment. Vietnamese law sets forth no specific restriction on cross border supply of computer and related services. Mode 3: Viet Nam has committed that until 11 January 2009, 100% foreign-invested enterprises may only provide services to foreign-invested enterprises in Viet Nam. Branching is allowed as from 11 January 2010 and the chief of the branch has to be resident in Viet Nam. The Investment Law sets forth the general framework on forms of foreign investment. With respect to branching, the Commercial Law sets forth legal rules for it. Article 3.7 of the Law provides the definition of a Viet Nam-based branch of a foreign merchant. Article 16.2 provides that foreign merchants are entitled to set up branches in Viet Nam and such branches have the rights and obligations specified by Vietnamese law. Foreign business entities shall be held responsible under Vietnamese law for all activities of their Viet Nambased branches. Articles 19 and 20 of the Law set forth the rights and obligations of Viet Nam-based branches of a foreign merchant. In addition, some other rights of such branch are provided for in the Law, such as the right to conduct sales promotion (Article 91), the right to commercial advertising (Article 103), the right to display and introduce goods and services 221 (Article 118), and the right to organize or participate in trade fairs and exhibitions (Article 131). Mode 4: Unbound, except as indicated in the horizontal section. In order to develop computer and related services, the two most important aspects which should receive attention from government are: - Education and training: the government should implement policies and measures to support education and training on computer and related services. As presented above, although being considered as having potential in the area, Viet Nam still lack of good IT engineers; - Simplifying licensing and administrative procedures in order to promote the dynamism of enterprises in the sector. 1.4 Resear ch and developments ser vices Research and development services include services on natural sciences, which are research and experimental development services on natural sciences and engineering. Those services are research and experimental development services on physical sciences (Research and experimental development services on physical sciences, including research and experimental development services on heat, light, electromagnetism, astronomy, etc), research and experimental development services on chemistry and biology (Research and experimental development services on chemistry and biology, including research and experimental development services on catalyses, fermentation, physiology and ecology of animals and plants, microorganisms, etc), research and experimental development services on engineering and technology (Research and experimental development services on engineering and technology, including research and experimental development services on applied science and technology for casting, metal, machinery, electricity, communications, vessels, aircraft, civil engineering, construction, information, etc), research and experimental development services on agricultural sciences (Research and experimental development services on agricultural sciences, including research and experimental development services on agricultural techniques, fruit culture, forestry, stockbreeding, fisheries), research and experimental development services on medical sciences and pharmacy (Research and experimental development services on medical sciences and pharmacy, including research and experimental development services on treatment of diseases, preventive hygiene, pharmacy, etc), research and experimental development services on other natural sciences. The research and development services have not been very mature in Viet Nam, previously, most research and development activities have only been carried out by state owned entities, i.e. research institutes, universities, etc. Recently, there have been some research and development services provided by the private sector. Until very recently, there was nearly no research and development “services” per- se in Viet Nam. Just only the last few years, several services providers begin to operate in Viet Nam, however, the research capabilities of 222 Vietnamese enterprises remain very limited due to their small sizes. That’s why it would be premature to say that a market for research and development services has developed in Viet Nam. Viet Nam is very supportive of the development of research and development activities, that’s why these services are subject to general laws and regulations like Law on Enterprises, Law on Investment and their guiding documents. There are no specific limitations for those services. GATS commitments Viet Nam commitments in the sub-sector above are very liberal by fully opening mode 1, 2 and 3. This reflects the importance and priority Viet Nam attaches to the services. However, in mode 4, Viet Nam’s commitments are only similar to those in horizontal sections. In order to develop the sector, besides current policies and measures, the government should encourage the participation of all economic sectors, especially the private sector, in the research and development activities. 1.5 Other business ser vices 1.5.1 Advertising services Advertising is a sector playing important role in developing brand names, increasing competitiveness of products and the economy. Although advertising is a new service in Viet Nam, it has recorded remarkable development thanks to a fast growing economy. The development of advertising services has made contributions to the growth of many trade marks and Vietnamese economy in general. So far, there have been more than 7,000 Vietnamese enterprises operating in the advertising sector, with total revenue of USD 500 millions in 2008. It has been estimated that the sector’s revenue would reach USD 1.5 billions in the next 10 years. According to estimates by Viet Nam’s Advertising Association, the growth rate of Viet Nam’s advertising sector has been quite high, at about 20-30% per year. The attractiveness of Viet Nam’s advertising market has drawn attention from foreign advertising enterprises while the number of Viet Nam’s advertising enterprises is also rising. With a fast growing economy, Viet Nam’s advertising sector has a golden opportunity for its development. However, it seems that Vietnamese advertising enterprises are also facing with tremendous difficulties. They are still at the “infant” stage, demonstrated by the fact that the market share of more than 7,000 Vietnamese enterprises is just 20%; the remaining 80% is held by about 10 foreign invested advertising enterprises. Most Vietnamese advertising enterprises just do the sub contracts and provide services for foreign invested advertising enterprises. Among more than 7,000 advertising enterprises, only 50-100 of them are operating as real advertising companies, and only a few of them can provide advertising strategies for their customers. 223 Vietnamese advertising enterprises are limited in terms of capital and capabilities. Moreover, major foreign enterprises when making investment in Viet Nam usually bring with them an advertising company who has long been dealing with them. This is the case for Coca Cola and Mc Cain, Unilever and J.W. Thompson, Honda and Dentsu, Heineken and Bate. Besides several Vietnamese enterprises operating as real advertising companies like Dat Viet, Goldsun, Stormeye, VMC, most of the remaining enterprises just focus on public relation activities, public events, leaflet advertising, etc. Since Viet Nam joins the WTO, there are more and more foreign advertising enterprises entering Viet Nam’s market, the competition pressure on Vietnamese enterprises thus is increasing. Viet Nam also has not had any education major on advertising, let alone any training institution for advertisement. Major universities like Hanoi National Economic University, Ho Chi Minh Economic University, Foreign Trade University are just introduced basic courses on marketing. Viet Nam Advertising Association was established in 2001; however its activities are not as expected because of limitations on capital, human resources as well as the participation from advertising enterprises. That is why the role of the Association on ensuring the quality of services supplied is limited. One reason for that fact is that the Association has not received enough power to set standards as well as supervise the implementation of such standards. The legal framework for advertising activities in Viet Nam includes: 1. Ordinance on Advertising dated the 16th November 2001; 2. Decree 24-2003-ND-CP of the Government dated the 13th March 2003 3. Circular 43-2003-TT-BVHTT of the Ministry of Culture and Information dated the 16th July 2003 (as amended by Circular 79-2006-TT-BVHTT of the Ministry of Culture and Information dated the 8th December 2005) 4. Commercial law (2005) 5. Law on Newspapers (Article 25) 6. Law on Publication (article 29) 7. Resolution 12/2000/NQ-CP dated 14 August 2000 of Government on “National policy on prevention of harmful effects from tobacco in the period 2000 - 2010. 8. Ordinance on plant protection and quarantine. 9. Ordinance on private healthcare services and pharmaceutical business. 10. Joint Circular 96/2004/TTLT/BVHTT-BNN&PTNN dated 3 November providing guidelines for advertising of some goods in the agriculture and rural development sector. 11. Joint Circular 03/2005/TTLT/BVHTT-UBTDTT dated 27 January 2005 providing guidelines for advertising in the sports sector. 224 12. Joint Circular 01/2004/TTLT-BVHTT-BYT dated 12 January 2004 providing guidelines for advertising in the healthcare sector. 13. Circular 19/2005/TT-BVHTT dated 12 May 2005 providing guidelines for implementation of the Ordinance on Advertising and Resolution 12/2000/NQ-CP of the Government on banning tobacco advertising. This legislation mainly regulates procedures on registering and licensing advertising activities in specific branches that have not been defined in the Ordinance on Advertising (pharmaceutical products, health examination and treatment, healthcare, vaccines, cosmetics, milk products, sports equipment, alcohol, plant-protection chemicals, animal feed, agriculture and rural development….). Such legislation is aimed at clarifying regulations on advertising activities in Viet Nam including market access by domestic and foreign individuals and organizations. Such legislation also includes specific regulations on permitted forms of alcohol advertising and prohibitions on tobacco advertising in Viet Nam. GATS commitments Upon its WTO accession, Viet Nam opened up three sub-sectors of advertising services (excluding tobacco advertising services): Sale or leasing services of advertising space or time; Planning, creating and placement advertising services and other advertising services including outdoor and aerial advertising services and delivery services of samples and other advertising material. In these sub-sectors, no limitations apply to cross-border provision and consumption abroad. No limitations apply to commercial presence except as regards a market access proviso that Foreign Service suppliers may have a commercial presence in Viet Nam in the form of a joint venture or business cooperation contract with Vietnamese partners who are legally authorised to provide advertising services. The contribution to the capital of a joint venture by foreign entities shall be limited to 51% of the total capital of the joint venture until the 1st January 2009, whereupon no foreign capital contribution limitation shall apply. There is also a specification stating that “advertising for wines and spirits shall be subject to State regulations which are applied on a non-discriminatory basis”. In order to develop the advertising sector, the following issues should be paid attention to: - Establish an Institute to provide research and training activities on advertisement and marketing. Activities of the Institute may be linked with activities of enterprises. Besides, the Government should have a long term vision, supporting the training activities. - Establish a complete legal framework for the operations of advertising enterprises, relaxing the limitations on advertising space on newspapers, magazines, and websites as well as on advertisement times on radio and television programs. - The Government, directly or indirectly, should ensure that advertising regulations are followed, especially those regulating the content of advertisements. 225 - International commitments, including those made during Viet Nam’s WTO accession process are implemented; - For enterprises, they should be active in absorbing new technologies and techniques, upgrading themselves, including through establishing joint-ventures with foreign partners. 1.5.2 Management and related services Similar to many other services, management and related services are quite new, just recently develops in Viet Nam. The services, however, have achieved remarkable development, thanks to high growth rates of the economy in recent years. Management and related services include management consultant services, services related to management consulting. The major services are general management consulting services, financial management consulting services, marketing management consulting services, human resources management consulting services, production management consulting services, public relation services, project management services other than for construction, arbitration and conciliation services, other management services. Previously, nearly all management and related services didn’t exist in Viet Nam, mostly due to the fact that enterprises were state owned. However, since the reform process started, with the fast growing of private enterprises, management and related services have been developing at high growth rate, the number of enterprises is increasing nearly every day and the services they provide also become more diversified. The market can be characterized by small and medium sized enterprises providing services to major companies operating in Viet Nam. There have been several foreign invested enterprises operating in the areas. However, from the “demand” side, most Vietnamese enterprises have not paid proper attention to management services; one reason may be they themselves lack necessary resources. Another reason is may be the fact that enterprises have not had enough understanding on the importance of management and related services. Management and related services develop very fast in such areas as hotel and restaurant sectors (management consulting services), public relation services. However, as mentioned above, customers mostly major, foreign invested enterprises. Due the diversification of management and related services, there is no single association for service suppliers. This makes the management, supervision of services’ quality more complicated. Similar to several business services, Viet Nam does not have specific relevant legislation for this sector. As a result, the service is subject to general legal framework, including the Investment Law, Law on Enterprise. In the Investment Law, management consultant services and services related to management consulting are not among areas or sectors in which foreign investment is restricted or conditioned. As a result, there is no limitation in terms of forms, capital, etc on foreign investors in this sector. 226 GATS Commitments: For management consultant services, Viet Nam’s commitments are very liberal. In mode 1, mode 2 and mode 3, Viet Nam makes full commitments, moreover, three years after the date of its accession to the WTO, Viet Nam allows foreign investors to establish branches in Viet Nam to provide services, with a condition that the chief of the branch has to be a resident in Viet Nam. For services related to management consulting services (CPC 866 except CPC 86602), Viet Nam makes full commitments for mode 1 and mode 2, in mode 3, within one year from the date of WTO accession, foreign investments are only allowed in the form of joint-venture or business cooperation contract, there after, none. Management and related services play a very important role in ensuring good governance and competitiveness of enterprises. That’s why the Government should create a favourable environment for the development of those services, including through simplifying licensing procedures, encouraging the participation of foreign-invested services suppliers, encouraging training programs for management and related services. 1.5.3 Technical testing services Technical testing services include conformity testing and certification, composition and purity testing and analysis services, testing and analysis services of physical properties, testing and analysis services of integrated mechanical and electrical systems, technical inspection services. The market for those services has different characteristics. Several services have been provided by the government, for example conformity testing and certification of transport vehicles. Other services have developed for quite a long time in Viet Nam, especially composition and purity testing and analysis services, testing and analysis services of physical properties. However, the number of services providers remains limited, composed of state owned enterprises, foreign invested enterprises and recently, private enterprises. There have been 100% foreign invested enterprises providing several technical testing services. The major trend for technical services in recent years has been the participation of the private sector to provide services previously only provided by the Government. Technical testing services in Viet Nam are governed generally by Commercial Law, Investment Law. However, in the specific area of “trade testing services” (or commercial assessment), a Decree No. 20/2006/ND-CP details the provisions of Commercial Law on “trade testing services”. Decision 10/2007/ND-CP announcing the schedule for implementation of trading and distribution activities also provides details on forms of establishment to provide commercial services. In the Investment Law, technical testing (except for conformity testing and certification of transport vehicles) is not a restricted or conditional service. Decree No. 20/2006/ND-CP mostly refers to technical and facility requirements for enterprises providing commercial 227 assessment services, there is no limitation on foreign participation in the provision of services. Decision No. 10/2007/ND-CP provides clearly that foreign investors are “allowed to conduct investment to provide the services in the form of an economic institution with 100% foreign owned capital, or in the form of a joint venture economic institution between a foreign investor and a domestic investor”. As a result, foreign investors do not face limitations in terms of forms of establishment, capital, etc. Decision No. 10/2007/ND-CP also specifies that provision of commercial assessment services shall not be permitted in some geographical areas for national security reasons as certified by the competent body. For other technical testing services (other than commercial assessment), there is no specific guiding legal document. As a result, investment to provide those services will comply with Investment Law and Law on Enterprises. GATS Commitments In its WTO accession, Viet Nam commits technical testing and analysis services (CPC 8676, excluding conformity testing and certification of transport vehicle). The major services committed are composition and purity testing and analysis services, testing and analysis services of physical properties, testing and analysis services of integrated mechanical and electrical systems, technical inspection services. Viet Nam makes unbound commitment in mode 1, it may amount to non-recognition of testing and analysis carried out by foreign services suppliers overseas. However, in mode 2, Viet Nam makes full commitments. In mode 3, Viet Nam also makes full commitment, except for those considered as “governmental services”. For these services, 3 years after Viet Nam allows private suppliers access to provide services, Viet Nam will permit joint-ventures without limitation on foreign ownership. Five year after such private competition is allowed there will be no limitation for foreign investors. Viet Nam also reserves the right to deny access to certain geographical areas on national security reasons. The technical testing and analysis services have been developed at different levels for different sub-sectors and it has been shown that the participation of private enterprises has made contribution to improving the quality of services provided. That’s why the government should consider measures to continue the direction, i.e increasing private sector’s participation in providing more services. 1.5.4Services incidental to mining Services incidental to mining mostly refer to services supporting the oil and gas industry like liquefaction and degasification of natural gas for transportation; derrick erection, repair and dismantling services and related services incidental to oil and gas extraction; services 228 necessary for oil or gas extraction such as well casing cementing, pumping, plugging and abandoning of wells; and specialized fire extinguishing services. Due to their specificities, previously, the services were mostly provided by State owned enterprises, however, the number of services suppliers have been on the rise, even though still very small. And because of the importance of oil and gas industry to Viet Nam’s economy, the supply of many services are subject to the Master plan promulgated by competent State authority. The legal framework for services incidental to mining includes: - 1996 Mineral Law (as amended 2005) - 2005 Investment Law - 2005 Trade Law - Decree 160/2005/ND-CP dated 27/12/2005 on guiding implementation of the 1996 Mineral Law (as amended 2005) - Decree 108/2006/ND-CP dated 22 September 2006 on guiding the implementation of some contents of the 2005 Investment Law. GATS commitments The commitments listed in this sub-sector are categorized in the GATS classification as liquefaction and degasification of natural gas for transportation; derrick erection, repair and dismantling services and related services incidental to oil and gas extraction; services necessary for oil or gas extraction such as well casing cementing, pumping, plugging and abandoning of wells; and specialized fire extinguishing services. Viet Nam committed to permits with few limitation the cross-border trade and investment trade in these services. Permitted limitations are the following: the supply of mining services from abroad may be subjected to registration if the company supplying the service has no establishment in Viet Nam; foreign suppliers will be allowed to establish 100 per cent foreign owned companies after five years from the date of WTO accession. However, Viet Nam continues to reserve the right to regulate activities carried out within the sea territory and its continental shelf, as well as the right to license exploration and prospecting enterprises. Certain services remain reserved for Vietnamese companies. For Mode 1 (Cross-border trade), Viet Nam may require foreign companies without a commercial presence register themselves with the competent authority... Even though the number of services suppliers, including private ones, in the sector is increasing, most of the services are still being provided by a handful of enterprises, some of which are subsidiaries of major oil companies. That’s why the government should consider policies and measures to encourage more competition in the area. 1.5.5 Maintenance and repair of equipment 229 The services have been developing quite fast in Viet Nam thanks to the industrialization and modernization process. The types of services provided are also become diversified, ranging from maintenance and repair of normal equipment, i.e. consumption equipments, to maintenance and repair of industrial equipments and machinery. The market has been characterized by a lot number of small and medium sized enterprises competing with each other. However, there has no mechanism to ensure that the services provided follow quality standards, if any. Similar to several business services, Viet Nam does not have specific relevant legislation for this sector. As a result, the service is subject to general legal framework, including the Investment Law, Law on Enterprise. In the Investment Law, maintenance and repair of services are not among areas or sectors in which foreign investment is restricted or conditioned. As a result, there is no limitation in terms of forms, capital, etc on foreign investors in this sector. GATS commitments Viet Nam makes commitments on maintenance and repair of equipment, but just limited to CPC 633, i.e. maintenance and repair of household goods. Viet Nam commits not to apply any limitation on market access and national treatment on cross border supply (mode 1) and consumption abroad (mode 2). With respect to commercial presence, upon accession, joint ventures with foreign capital contribution not exceeding 49% shall be permitted. After 3 years from the date of accession, this limitation shall be 51%. Two years thereon, 100% foreign-invested enterprises shall be permitted. In order to create favourable conditions for the development of the sector, there should be legal documents guiding the implementation of GATS commitments, especially when Viet Nam has a real need to attract foreign investment in maintenance and repair of industrial equipment. 1.5.6 Other business services There are many other services, ranging from services incidental to energy distribution, placement and supply services of personnel, investigation and security, building-cleaning services, photographic services, packaging services, printing, publishing services, convention services, etc. Except for printing and publishing services, the other services share a general feature of being very new and at early stage of development in Viet Nam, although they have seen remarkable development in recent years. Most services suppliers are private, small and medium size enterprises (except for publishing services). These services are also subject to general laws and regulations like Investment Law, Law on Enterprise. Most of these services do not have specific governing laws and regulations, except for printing and publishing services. Viet Nam also does not make any international commitments to open these services. However, this fact sometimes leads to misinterpretation that Viet Nam prohibits the participation of foreign services suppliers in Viet Nam. That’s 230 why the most important recommendation for the Government is to provide clear regulations for these services as well as interpretation of its international commitments. 231 CHAPTER 2: INSURANCE AND SECURITY SERVICES The general economic background Viet Nam economy has enjoyed a significant economic growth of approximately 7.5% per annum for a decade before affected by global financial turmoil in 2008. This growth is attributable to the recently adopted strategic and long-term initiatives by the Vietnamese government. These have streamlined and improved the economic infrastructure of the country by offering more incentives for foreign investors and implementing a 10 year socio-economic development plan etc. There has been a significant increase in inflows of foreign direct and private investment to support for this growth. The country has gradually migrated from a planned economy to a market based economy by shifting its focus from agricultural production to industries and services. With all these developments, Viet Nam has become one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, averaging around 8% annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth from 1990 to 1997 and 6.5% from 1998-2003. From 2004 to 2007, GDP grew over 8% annually. The prolonged economic growth turned the country around to become one of the most attractive destinations for investors around the world. In 2008, Viet Nam socio-economy was affected by the complicated and unpredictable fluctuation of the world economy and the global financial crisis. The price of crude oil, food, material rations and other goods sharply increased in the world market in the middle of the year which resulted in rapid rise of price of various kinds of goods in Viet Nam. The consumption price index increased 22,97%, a record level over the last 15 years. GDP growth of 2008 was 6,18% lower than the objective level of 7%, FDI was over USD 64 billion, total investment reached VND 673 thousand billion. Stock market and real estate market declined seriously. INSURANCE SECTOR Executive Summary Insurance sector in Viet Nam has experienced an impressive growth in the past decade. Despite being a nascent market, the insurance sector has expanded very quickly and in terms of market penetration. This is because insurance premium forms a larger percentage of the country’s GDP. With opening up of its insurance market since 1996, more and more foreign insurers are getting access to the highly lucrative insurance market in Viet Nam. Foreign companies can now easily operate in the country and are forming joint ventures with local companies in order to enter Viet Nam and diversify their clientele. Upon the country's accession to the World Trade Organization, foreign insurers expect to be allowed to establish more wholly owned units and to benefit from progressively declining limitations on their scope of business. Insurance market is expected to growth in the long run as a result of continuing economic growth, rising incomes and increasing insurance awareness. The growth will drive the 232 already strong interest being shown in the market by local and foreign players and the huge investments being made are expected to continue. The major new players that have already existed are seen as a means to professionalise the market and more foreign companies are expected to enter the market by way of acquisition or joint venture. Results would be possible to be deteriorated in the immediate future due to temporarily worsening macro economic conditions and no successful market expansion efforts. In addition to continuing competition insurers will face more and more difficulty to find qualified and experienced staff, which is likely to bring out the negative impact of competition on results. The Ministry of Finance has stated its intention of improving the legal framework of the market, bringing it into line with international market practices, strengthening transparency and improving corporate governance. A more convenient business environment is expected to be available for insurance enterprises and insurance brokers to grow. It is also likely to continue its campaign to eliminate questionable market behaviour and to bring increasing pressure to bear on insurers to fix rates that will guarantee companies' financial stability. Existing enterprises shall continue undergoing a restructuring process with the aim to increase financial capacity and international competitiveness and ultimately meet the basic insurance needs of the economy and the population in the context of fully integration to the global economy. Product diversification shall be made to link to other sector and tandem with service standard improvement. This would benefit policyholder with such world class insurance products. 2.1 Cur r ent status of insur ance sector in Viet Nam 2.1.1. The sector development The Vietnamese insurance market is a market undergoing a process of change which began about 15 years ago when the first tentative steps towards liberalisation were taken. Over the past five years that pace has accelerated and the trend is likely to continue in the foreseeable future. The country's bilateral trade agreement with the United States and its accession to the World Trade Organization have both obliged it to abandon protective practices and open the market to foreign competition. Although some barriers still exist for foreign insurers, these are reducing and the remainder will gradually be removed and a level playing field created for all the market. The first insurance company in Viet Nam -Viet Nam Insurance Corporation (Bao Viet) was established in 1965 and became the only one to supply import-export cargo insurance and shipping insurance under the state-own monopoly power. The milestone Decree No. 100/CP dated 18 December 1993 governing insurance businesses was brought about significant changes in Viet Nam’s insurance market. Since then, no more than BaoViet in the insurance market until 1999, the year of the foundation of the first 5 foreign insurers in Viet Nam. 233 During 1993-2004, the insurance market has grown rapidly with average growth in income premiums of around 38% a year. The non-life sector recorded an average growth rate of 23% a year. Life insurance started in 1996 and began to grow significantly from 1999 when large foreign insurers joined the market. Over the period 1999-2004, the life sector recorded a remarkable average growth of 81% a year, much higher than average growth in the South and East Asia region during the same period, which was 11% for life and 8.2% for non-life (BMI Viet Nam Insurance Report, QII2009). However, the growth of the life sector in Viet Nam has slowed significantly, approaching regional levels, 16% in Viet Nam compared to 9% for South and East Asia between 2003 and 2004. In 2003 there have been great changes and arrangements for domestic insurers. Bao Viet was restructured into a financial group with independent accounting members: Bao Viet Viet Nam specialized in non-life insurance business and Bao Viet Life Insurance specializing in the life insurance business. A number of state-owned insurance and reinsurance firms were transformed into joint stock companies and some joint stock companies and brokers were established. By early 2005, there were 31 firms of diversified legal form and scale operating in life insurance, non-life insurance, reinsurance and brokerage. There were also over 30 representative offices of foreign insurers present in the market. By the end of 2008, the number of insurers increased to 49 and the increase mostly due to the participation of 12 new non-life insurers over 3 years. As long as Viet Nam becomes a full member of WTO in 2007, the insurance market has been more opened up to foreign players. Table: Structure of the insurance sector, 1993 – 2008 1993 1996 1999 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 3 4 4 5 8 8 9 11 6 10 13 14 14 15 21 22 27 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Life insurers Non-life insurers 1 Reinsurance firms Brokers 1 1 1 2 5 6 7 8 8 10 Total 2 8 15 20 24 26 31 38 40 49 Source: Viet Nam Association of Insurers As a result of the legislative changes, the number of insurers in the market (life and non-life) rose from 15 to 32 between 2000 and 2007, and the number of brokers from one to eight. In addition, there are now 13 wholly foreign-owned insurers, the state insurers Bao Viet, Bao Minh, PetroViet Nam Insurance and Vinare have been partly equitised and listed in the stock market and the compulsory cession to Vinare has been eliminated. The sale of part of the 234 state holdings in the national insurers has allowed several new major foreign players to enter the market as strategic partners of the local insurers, with HSBC Insurance, AXA and Swiss Re all taking significant shareholdings. In 2007 the Vietnamese non-life market was in 66th position in world rankings with a market share of 0.04%. It was the 11th-largest non-life market in Asia (Axco, 2009). But the largest premium share was belong to the life insurance according to the below breakdown premiums in the market in 2007-2008 despite of the effect of the global financial turmoil. Life Non-Life Total Market 2007 Premium in VND 9,485.5 (billion) 8360.0 17,845.5 % Total Market 46.8 100.0 2008 Premium in VND 10,855 (billion) 10,399 21,194 % Total Market 48.79 100.0 53.2 51.21 Source: BMI, MoF and author’s calculation 2.1.2. A closer view to insurance sector in 2008 According to the Viet Nam Insurance Association, there are currently 27 non-life insurers, 11 life insurers, 8 insurance brokers and 1 reinsurer in the market. In 2008, the total direct premium of insurance industry reached VND 27.000 billion equal 2,2% of GDP. Life insurance gained VND 10.339 billion, increased 9,3% against 2007, non – life insurance reached VND 10.879 billion, increased 30,13% against 2007, reinsurance (VinaRe) reached VND 1.050 billion. Investment income reached VND 5.700 billion. Investment to the economy was over VND 57.000 billion. 2.1.2.1. Non-life insurance Domestic insurers are more dominant in the non-life insurance market and foreign insurers hold only a 7 percent market share. Some of the top insurance companies in Viet Nam are ACE Life Insurance Co., Ltd., AIG General Insurance (Viet Nam) Company Limited, Bao Viet Holdings, Bao Minh, Groupama/GAN, Nipponkoa Insurance Co., Ltd., Prudential Viet Nam Assurance, Petrolimex Joint Stock Insurance Company (PJICO), PetroViet Nam Insurance Company (PVIC), and QBE Insurance (Viet Nam) Company Limited etc. Non-life insurance market gained total direct premium of VND 10.879 billion, increased 30,13%, over fulfilled the strategic target for 2010 at 20,8% (the target for 2010 was VND 9.000 billion). Table: Top 5 Non-Life Insurers 235 Rank Insurer Premium (VND bil) 1 Bao Viet Insurance 3,320 2 PVI 2,020 3 Bao Minh 1,884 4 PJICO 1,060 5 PTI 443 Source: Viet Nam Association of Insurers Top 5 Non-Life Business Rank Business 1 Vehicle Insurance 2 Engineering Insurance 3 Health Insurance 4 Marine Hull and P&I 5 Cargo Insurance Source: Viet Nam Association of Insurers Premium (VND bil) 3,182 2,024 1,597 1,266 972 % Total Market 30,52% 18,57% 17,32% 9,74% 4,07% % Total Market 29,25% 18,60% 14,68% 11,64% 8,93% Compensation of the whole non-life market was VND4.511 billion with the average rate of compensation 41,5% which was rather high in comparison with earned premium (50% net premium). The insurance businesses which had highest rate of compensation were vehicle insurance with VND 1.830 billion (58%), Health insurance with VND724 billion (45,3%), Marine Hull and P&I insurance for ship with VND 583 billion (46%), Engineering insurance with VND 695 billion (34,3%). Most insurance companies in 2008 suffered loss in insurance business and the proclaimed interest and dividend came from the profit of financial investments (mostly lending the banks) using owner capital and premium reserve. In 2008, the income before tax of non-life insurers was VND 797.9 billion or VND 1.000 billion if including VinaRe. The most profit making insurers were VinaRe with VND 205 billion, PVI with VND 188 billion, Bao Viet VND186 billion, Bao Minh with VND 140 billion. The capital in 2008 of non-life insurers were VND11,207 billion (increased by 28%). The biggest non-life insurera in term of capital are shown in the below table Top 5 Non-Life Biggest Insurers Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Insurer PVI Bao Minh Bao Viet AAA BIC Capital (VND bil) 2,305 2,137 1,015 578 524 % Total Market 29,25% 18,60% 14,68% 11,64% 8,93% Source: Viet Nam Association of Insurers 236 There were still 8 non-life insurers having charter capital lower than legal capital were Bao Long, Bao Ngan, Bao Tin, Hung Vuong, UIC, SVI, QBE and Groupama. These companies will have to add more capital to meet the minimum capital requirement in 2009. 2.1.2.2. Life insurance In early 2008, price level escalated and price of food and foodstuff increased from 1.5 to 2 times worsening the country living standards. In the middle of 2008, bank saving interest increased remarkably up to 18%. This situation created difficulties to life insurance. The insured were about to stop their policies that made the increase in payment of cash value. The cancelled policies attained 508,652 policies, up 26.17% against that of 2007 of which the number of first year cancelled policies was 99,998 policies, up 8.83% against that of 2007. The source of potential clients went down keeping the number of new policies difficult to move up. Total of new policies during the period was 552,304 policies, decreased 13.71%. Under such circumstances, life insurance companies had made huge effort to bring out many new and attractive products meeting the demand of clients, reaching premium up to VND 10,339 billion, up 9.3% against that of 2007. Prudential has earned VND 4,270 billion premium accounting for 41.3% of the total market premium, followed by Bao Viet with VND 3,425 billion (33.1%) and Manulife VND with 1,081 billion (10,45%). First year premium attained VND 2,059 billion, increased 13.88% as the result of products with big sum insured and long time of insurance. Total life insurance policy benefits were VND 4,572 billion, increased 29.5% against that of 2007. Payment of insurance benefits reached VND 2,539 billion, up 17.4% that of 2007. The number of cancelled policies due to economic difficulties makes the payment of insurance benefits higher. In terms of financial capacity, total assets of life insurance companies reached VND 47,813 billion, increased 20.5% against that of 2007 in which three biggest includes Prudential with VND 19,556 billion (accounted for 40.9% of life insurance total assets), Bao Viet 15,599 billion (32.6%), Manulife VND 4,770 billion (9.97%). Total investment of life insurance companies attained VND 39,253 billion in 2008, increased by 23.23% that of 2007 in which Prudential contributed VND 14,333 billion, Bao Viet VND 14,669 billion, and Manulife VND 3,583 billion. The investment was distributed among bank savings (16.25%), government securities (58.10%), stock (7.6%), interest-bearing loan (10.15%) and others 7.95%. Income from these investment was VND 4,010 billion, decreased 21.8% compared to that of 2007 because insurers had to draw out money to make reserve fund for risk. 2.2 Existing law and r egulations gover ning insur ance sector in Viet Nam 2.2.1. Existing law and regulations The Law on Insurance Business No 24/2000/QH10 of 9 December 2000, which is supported by a number of guideline decrees, decisions and circulars. Under the current Law, the regulations governing insurance business in Viet Nam are detailed below: 237 • Decree No 45 of 27 March 2007 on market conduct, and its corresponding circular providing detailed guidelines on the implementation of certain articles of the Law on Insurance Business. • Decree No 46 of 27 March 2007 on certain financial issues including capital, solvency margins and technical reserves and the corresponding circular which regulates it. • Decree No 115/1997/ND-CP and Decision No 23/2007 in connection with obligatory motor third party liability insurance. • Decision No 175/2003/QD-TT of 29 August 2003 approving the strategy for the development of the insurance market 2003 to 2010. • Decision No 153/2003/QD-BTC of 22 September 2003 which established the financial ratios to be used by the Insurance Department of the Ministry of Finance for monitoring and supervisory purposes. • Decree No 118/2003/ND-CP of 13 October 2003 establishing sanctions for violations. • Decree No 18/2005/ND-CP of February 2005 setting out a legal framework that will enable companies in a common industry to establish a mutual insurance operation. • Circulars No 155/2007/TT-BTC and No 156/2007/TT-BTC dated 20 December 2007 set out detailed guidelines for the implementation of Decree 45-2007-ND-CP and Decree 46-2007-ND-CP respectively. • Decision No 23/2007/QD-BTC of 9 April 2007 promulgated the Regime of Compulsory Insurance for Motorized Vehicle Owners' Civil Liability, establishing the limits, premiums and regulations for motor third party covers. Under the current legal framework above, the minimum capital requirement for a non-life company was raised to VND 300bn (equivalent to USD 17.8mn), enabling a company to write all lines of business except aviation insurance, petroleum insurance and satellite insurance. If it wishes to write one or all of these lines of business, an additional VND 100bn (USD 5.9mn) must be paid up. The minimum capital for a broker is now VND 4bn (USD 237,389) and broking operations transacting both direct insurance and reinsurance must put up an additional VND 4bn capital. New obligatory insurances were introduced, including professional insurance covered for fund management companies and securities companies. The Law on Securities in 2006 establishes the obligation for securities companies to hold insurance. Decision No 23/2007 was passed raising motor third party limits and tariff rates with effect from June 2007. In addition, it established a motor guarantee fund to compensate victims of hit-and-run and uninsured drivers. As a result, competition is increasing and rates falling in most non-life 238 classes. Several new companies were granted licences to operate in 2007: The Military Insurance Company, Agriculture Bank Insurance Joint Stock Corp (ABIC) and Viet Nam Airlines Insurance Company. Jardine Lloyd Thompson, which had had a representative office in Viet Nam since 1994, received a licence to set up an insurance broker. 239 Box: List of Compulsory Insurances The following insurances are compulsory: • Motor third party liability. • Aviation third party passenger liability insurance (and the usual internationally insurances for scheduled airlines). • Professional indemnity for lawyers, securities companies, fund management brokers and contractors supervising the execution of building works. • Fire and explosion insurance on 16 different types of high-risk industries. • The transportation of passengers and inflammable substances by inland waterway • First and third party risks in connection with construction works (pending). • Insurance for contractors engaged in design works (pending). • Insurance for contractors performing surveys for construction work (pending). • Insurance covering construction tenders presented. 2.2.2. State supervision and regulation The Ministry of Finance is responsible for the supervision of all "banks, non-bank financial institutions and financial services" including the non-life insurance industry, and considers all new licence applications. This responsibility was delegated to it by the Government Decree No 100/Cp in 1993 and a more detailed description of its duties is contained in Chapter V of Decree No 45/2007/ND-CP. The regulator's duties include: • Formulating strategies for the development of the insurance market and providing guidelines for the implementation of legislation • Issuing and withdrawing licences for insurers, reinsurers, brokers and representative offices • Promulgating and ratifying the implementation of regulations, clauses, commission and premium scales • Taking the necessary measures to ensure that insurers are financially sound and that they fulfil their undertakings to policyholders • Inspecting and checking insurance business activities, resolving complaints and dealing with breaches of the law on insurance business. In 2008, the Insurance Department under the Ministry of Finance was transformed into the Department for Insurance Supervision which has more independent in its functioning activities, broader scope of mandates. The Department carries out the supervision of the insurance market including insurance and reinsurance companies, agents and brokers. Loss adjusters are not regulated. Until 2003 when Decree No 77/2003/ND-CP defined the 240 functions, tasks, powers and organisational structure of the Ministry of Finance, the insurance department was a relatively unimportant part of the ministry; from that date, however, it was upgraded, reflecting the greater importance being placed by the government on the sector. There is no official separation for regulatory purposes of the life market, non-life market, insurance companies, reinsurance companies and brokers but unofficially supervision is split into three areas: life, non-life and others. Provisions for the supervision of insurance business activities are covered in Articles 120 - 129 of the Insurance Law (No 24/2000/QH 10), and clarified in Decree No 45 of 2007. Inspections of insurers are carried out at least once a year. The Insurance Department has generally been seen as exercising a firm but fair control over the market players but many indicate that it is becoming exceptionally strict in its application of the law. It has declared its intention to take action against the incorrect recruitment of agents, infringement of commission scales and unfair competition practices. In this connection it will increase its inspection activity and apply sanctions whenever necessary. Reporting requirements All insurance companies are required to submit returns quarterly, six-monthly and annually. Monthly reports should be submitted within 15 days following the last day of the month, quarterly within 30 days following the end of the quarter and annual financial reports with 90 days following the year-end. Annual financial reports must be the subject of an independent audit and all other documents as required by the Ministry Of Finance to clarify these documents. A series of financial ratios are also required which serve as an early-warning system for potential problems and further reports may be demanded if any worries over solvency exist. Insolvency Regulation Section 4 of the Law on Insurance Business deals with the "Recovery of Solvency, Dissolution, Bankruptcy of Insurance Enterprise" setting out the procedures for dealing with situations of potential insolvency. The regulatory authority is empowered to take the following action should it suspect that an enterprise is in danger of insolvency: • Demand from the enterprise an immediate report on its financial condition • Insist that it prepare a recovery plan including the reorganisation of management. Should the recovery plan prove insufficient to bring about the desired recovery, a board of solvency control may be established which may, among other measures: • Limit the area of business activity or suspend it completely • Transfer the portfolio of the insurer to another company • Demand the suspension of the management and executive personnel. 241 If the insurer remains insolvent, the board of solvency may, subject to the approval of the Ministry of Finance, withdraw the company's licence to operate and dissolve it. Consumer Dispute Resolution Insurance companies are required to supply policyholders with clear procedures to be followed in the event of a dispute regarding the insurance. A dissatisfied policyholder will first try to resolve the problem directly with the insurance company. If that fails, he may refer the matter to the Insurance Department of the Ministry of Finance, which does not happen very often. If the Insurance Department intervenes, its decision will usually be accepted by the two parties to the dispute. The matter may also be referred to arbitration as provided for in the policy conditions. As a last resort, the consumer may take legal action though this is a solution that is generally avoided. For certain types of disputes, the matter may be referred to the people's committee of towns and villages. Investment Regulations The investment of capital is governed by Chapter II, Section 3 of Decree No 46-2007-ND-CP and Section IV of Circular No 156-2007-TT-BTC. The minimum legal capital must be represented by investments that are safe and liquid in accordance with guidelines established by the Ministry of Finance. Capital in excess of the minimum capital required or the minimum solvency margin (whichever is greater) may be invested offshore. Insurance reserves may be invested as follows: • The sums necessary for regular payments of claims in a period, which may constitute a minimum of 25% of total reserves, must be deposited with credit institutions operating in Viet Nam • The balance may only be invested in Viet Nam in: government bonds, guaranteed bonds of enterprises and deposits in credit institutions, without any restriction; shares, unsecured bonds of enterprises and capital contribution in other enterprises up to a maximum of 35%; real estate and loans to a maximum of 20%. 2.3 The impact of WTO accession on insur ance sector 2.3.1. WTO commitments by Viet Nam A long with Viet Nam accession to WTO by the end of 2006, the insurance sector has gradually opened and integrated into the global insurance industry. The types of insurance and insurance-related services covered in the WTO commitments include: (i)Direct insurance: (a)Life insurance, excl. health insurance services (b)Non-life insurance services (ii) Reinsurance and retrocession (iii) Insurance intermediation (such as brokerage and agency) 242 (iv) Services auxiliary to insurance (such as consultancy, actuarial, risk assessment and claim settlement) In general, there is no particular limitation on national treatment and only limitations on Market Access have been committed as follows: For cross-border supply (1)No limitation for: - Insurance services provided to enterprises with foreigninvested capital, foreigners working in Viet Nam; - Reinsurance services; - Insurance services in international transportation, including insurance of risks relating to: *) international maritime transport and international commercial aviation, with such insurance to cover any or all of the following: the goods being transported, the vehicle transporting the goods and any liability arising there-from; and *) goods in international transit; - Insurance broking and reinsurance broking services; - Consultancy, actuarial, risk assessment and claim settlement services. Consumption abroad No limitation Commercial presence No limitation, except: 2.2100% foreign-invested insurance enterprises shall not be allowed to engage in statutory insurance business, including motor vehicle third party liability, insurance in construction and installation, insurance for oil and gas projects, and insurance for projects and construction works of high danger to public security and the environment. As of 1 January 2008, this limitation shall be abolished. 2.3After 5 years from the date of accession, non-life branches of foreign insurance enterprises shall be permitted, subject to prudential regulations. Presence person of natural Unbound, except if committed in the general service sector. 2.3.2. The impacts of WTO accession 243 Under WTO commitments, Viet Nam has been gradually open up its insurance market for foreign competitors from 2006 to 2011. The limitation “100% foreign-invested insurance enterprises shall not be allowed to engage in statutory insurance business, including motor vehicle third party liability, insurance in construction and installation, insurance for oil and gas projects, and insurance for projects and construction works of high danger to public security and the environment” was abolished in the 1st January 2008. After 5 years from the date of accession (i.e. by end of 2011), non-life branches of foreign insurance enterprises shall be permitted, subject to prudential regulations. The fact that the insurance market has started from a low base, knowledge of and interest in insurance has increased greatly in recent years. The WTO accession has had a positive effect on business growth rates (see more in Figure below). Market Growth Life Insurance Non-life Insurance 700 600 620,2 647,4 589,3 519,3 530,3 397,6 489,7 345,9 100 304,8 200 415,3 300 512,7 400 250,5 USD Mil. 500 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 The following table compares the annual growth rates of non-life premium income (including personal accident and healthcare written in the non-life account) in local currency with the nominal GDP growth and inflation rates over the last five years. 2003 26.9 Premium growth (%) Nominal GDP growth 14.5 (%) Inflation rate (%) 3.2 2004 23.6 2005 14.3 2006 15.9 2007 31.5 2008 25 16.6 17.3 16.1 17.4 29.2 7.8 8.3 7.4 8.9 22.97 Source: BMI and GSO Honouring its commitment to the World Trade Organization, Viet Nam has abolished restrictions on foreign insurers selling obligatory non-life insurance to local customers. Swiss Re has purchased 25% of the shares of Viet Nam National Reinsurance Corporation (Vinare), becoming the reinsurer's sole foreign partner. The obligatory reinsurance cession to Vinare was eliminated with effect from 1 January 2008. Axa has 244 bought a 16.6% stake in Bao Minh. HSBC has purchased a 10% share in Bao Viet and it will buy a further 8% by June 2009. In accordance with Article 59 of the Law on Insurance Business the types of insurers allowed include: state owned insurance enterprise, joint stock insurance companies, mutual insurance organizations, joint venture insurance enterprises, and 100% foreign owned insurance enterprises. The insurance law will be changed to permit the establishment of branches. This must take place by 2012 but it is expected that it may be implemented before that date. Recent legislative changes in the market, which have opened up all segments to all players, have so far had little impact and local insurers still identify three distinct market segments: government business, local commercial and industrial companies and foreign-invested companies. However, government business remains almost exclusively in the hands of the local insurers despite the fact that foreign companies may now write the business. It is likely to take a long time for the foreign companies to break into the segment especially as it is alleged that the local companies are engaging in illegal payments and other dubious practices in order to retain the business. Local commercial and manufacturing concerns are insured mainly by the local insurers. Many of the smaller businesses, especially the family-owned companies, have no insurance but the first signs of change are being seen in that connection as banks and other lenders are demanding evidence of insurance cover from their clients. Some foreign insurers operate successfully in the SME segment. Foreign-invested businesses are required to be insured in accordance with the provisions of the Law on Foreign Investment and insurance must be sought in Viet Nam in accordance with the terms of the Law on Insurance Business. This has provided a flow of business to the foreign-invested insurers but local insurers are increasingly directing their attention to this segment. 2.4 Tr ade in insur ance ser vices Insurance An agreement is in operation involving Viet Nam, China, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand by which a common system of third party cover has been set up to facilitate travel from one to another. A limit of USD 50,000 applies to both private and commercial vehicles and a proof of insurance is given. Foreign vehicles from other countries wishing to enter Viet Nam may extend their local policies prior to departure or buy insurance at the frontier where the major insurers have offices. A protocol (Protocol 5 - ASEAN Scheme of Compulsory Motor Vehicle Insurance), which was signed in May 2001 and provides for a common scheme of compulsory motor vehicles third party liability insurance for ASEAN countries, has been discussed by insurance regulators and transport officials. The scheme was one of the protocols adopted by the ASEAN transport ministers under the ASEAN Framework Agreement on the Facilitation of Goods in Transit between ASEAN Countries. The formalised documentation for the 245 operation of the scheme has been completed and each member country or signatory to the protocol has nominated a National Bureau that will represent the country on the National Bureaux that oversees the scheme. Workers' compensation insurance covers accidents and illness arising out of and in the course of employment, including journeys to and from work. The policy gives cover for Viet Nam but may be extended for an additional premium to include other countries. The workers' compensation policy may be extended to cover employees temporarily working overseas. Reinsurance Since 1 January 2008 insurance companies were no longer obliged to place with Vinare 20% of the surplus above their retention in certain classes but most have agreed to continue to make the cessions on a voluntary basis for an indefinite period and several new domestic insurers, registered after 1 January 2005, have decided to cede 100% of the excess above their retention to the reinsurer. Some of the foreign insurers, with reinsurance support from their head offices, make no committed cessions to Vinare. Reinsurance placed overseas is monitored carefully, and every effort is made to minimise reinsurance cessions abroad; for example, insurance companies are encouraged to offer reinsurance to other direct companies and to Vinare before offering risks abroad. Vinare also offers retrocession to the market. Extensive use is made of facultative reinsurance, mainly for engineering and other property business. Facultative business tends to be offered on the local market prior to placements being made overseas. Effective 1 January 2009 a withholding tax of 2% on gross premiums applies on all overseas reinsurance remittances (Circular 134/2008/TT-BTC of 31 December 2008). International Reinsurance (inwards) Seven insurers, including Bao Viet, Bao Minh, Samsung Vina and PetroViet Nam Insurance, accept reinsurance from abroad. The total amount accepted in 2006 was VND 128.7bn (USD 8.0mn), coming exclusively from Asian markets including China, Singapore, Thailand and South Korea. The amounts accepted tend to be small as local direct insurers cannot offer large capacities. 2.5 Major Issues & Tr ends Foreign investors targeting Vietnamese insurance market Foreign ownership is permitted in insurance industry, but has been carefully controlled, and often restrictions have been placed on operating licences to prevent the writing of selected classes of business. Following Viet Nam's accession to the WTO, however, these restrictions are being eliminated and with effect from 1 January 2008 the prohibition of foreign insurers writing obligatory insurances was lifted. As committed, within five years of its accession to the World Trade Organisation, Viet Nam would allow foreign insurers to 246 open direct branches offering non-life insurance. This openness is likely to happen much earlier than the 2012 date originally indicated. Before WTO accession, the US-Viet Nam Bilateral Trade Agreement has already facilitated the entry of several US insurers and several other life and general insurers are awaiting authorisation to operate or to establish a fully-owned company. In 2003, the Ministry of Finance announced its intention to reduce its shareholdings in state owned companies such as Bao Viet, Bao Minh, PetroViet Nam Insurance and the reinsurer Vinare and the part-privatisation process was completed in 2006 and 2007. As a result the insurers all now have a major foreign strategic partner, HSBC Insurance, AXA Insurance, Tenaska Capital Limited of Hong Kong and Swiss Re respectively. Following commitments assumed under bilateral trade agreements and with the WTO, restrictions placed on foreign-invested insurers are being removed and it is widely expected that within two or three years at the most all insurance companies regardless of the country of origin will enjoy the same rights and responsibilities. Insurance still in a nascent stage due to traditional approach The legislative framework is undergoing a steady transformation as the Ministry of Finance increases and improves its regulation of the market, bringing local insurance legislation more into line with that found in the international market, a process which will also continue over the next few years. Notwithstanding the changes to legislation and the opening up of the market, foreign insurers complain of the impossibility to break into certain market segments as local insurers allegedly engage in illegal market practices such as commission rebating in order to keep them out (Axco, 2009). Viet Nam's non-life insurance market has grown steadily over the past five years from a low base by an average of more than 50% per year, reflecting the buoyancy of the economy. Although it remains relatively small and undeveloped, both local and foreign insurers present are confident that growth will continue at an accelerated rate, an opinion that appears to be supported by the interest being shown in the market by other foreign players. Capability Enhancement by Banking and Insurance Integration There is no restriction on banks investing in insurance companies or vice versa to take advantages of each others such as customer base and premium funding. In fact, there are a number of examples where banks have invested in non-life insurers, including: • Incombank-Asia Insurance - 50/50 joint venture between Industrial and Commercial Bank of Viet Nam and Asia Insurance Company. • Nha Rong Insurance Company - bank shareholdings include Viet Nam Bank of Foreign Trade (Vietcombank) and Asia Commercial Bank. • Petrolimex (PJICO) Insurance Company - Vietcombank is a major shareholder. 247 • Post-Telecommunications Insurance International Commercial Bank. Company - shareholding includes • Vien Dong Insurance - major shareholders include the Saigon Commercial Bank and the Hanoi Building Commercial Bank. Holding company structures are permitted in Viet Nam which allows insurer to set up its own bank or bank to set up its own insurance company. Bao Viet Holdings has been granted a licence to set up a commercial bank. The Bao Viet Joint-Stock Commercial Bank will have a capital of VND 1.5 trillion (approximately USD 88mn) of which the insurer will hold 52%. Standard Chartered Bank has received permission to begin selling both life and non-life insurance from its two branches in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. The impacts of continuously new comer to the market There are several key issues facing the market as a result of the influx of new insurers and the push for growth seen in the market in general. The level of competition is intense and rates in some property segments are now 40% lower than three years ago. Underwriting criteria have been relaxed and even abandoned in favour of simple commercial pragmatism. The scope of cover is widened and risks added at no additional charge; deductibles have been reduced or in some cases eliminated. There is also a lack of skilled insurance personnel. As the market is young there is not a large pool of people with experience and knowledge of the business, with the result that qualified staffs who are at a premium in the market, are being enticed from one company to another. This applies both to the company market and to intermediaries. Some concern is now beginning to be expressed by reinsurers which, despite their own competition for growth in the competitive market, are alarmed by the level of rates being applied in some cases and by instances of treaty conditions not being respected. In spite of the concerns expressed by all sectors in the market, it looks likely that the trends seen in recent years are set to continue for at least another year or two (Axco, 2009). Some other issues come from the fact of a transitional and developing economy such as the lack of infrastructure and support for the sector to develop, the increasing demand for risk hedging but no supply yet. 2.6 Key dr iver s of insurance sector gr owth and development The Business Monitor International (BMI) has made its projection for insurance sector in Viet Nam for the period 2008-2013. The detail insurance business environment rating for Viet Nam by BMI is given below: 248 The total rating is 44.1/100 point for business environment of insurance sector in Viet Nam. The most highlighted favourable conditions for insurance sector in Viet Nam includes: active population, high long-term policy continuity, low long-term financial risk, onward completed regulatory framework and development. Other supportive conditions are: measure of openness, competitive landscape, tax policy, GDP growth. In the ranking list below, in AsiaPacific region, Viet Nam is above Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh but below Indonesia, Indonesia and the Philippines. 249 Table: Asia Insurance Business Environment Rankings Limits of potential returns Risks to realisation of returns Non-life Life Country Regulatory segment segment structure framework Country risk Hong Kong 55 80 77.1 100 80.9 Australia 75 77.5 72.5 90 68.8 Singapore 62.5 72.5 72.6 95 83.8 South 75 77.5 70.6 60 73.9 Korea Taiwan 55 80 65.1 70 74 Malaysia 55 62.5 63.6 75 69.9 China 60 72.5 54.4 55 70 Thailand 52.5 57.5 59.8 70 53.6 Philippines 40 55 50 75 58.6 India 55 65 42.6 45 60.2 Indonesia 45 65 52.3 55 49.9 Viet Nam 37.5 42 55 61.4 32.5 Pakistan 27.5 22.5 43.1 40 53.7 Sri Lanka 25 25 42.1 45 48.7 Bangladesh 22.5 20 46.9 20 44.2 Rating 76.5 75.5 75.2 Rank 1 2 3 72.3 4 68.3 64.1 62.3 57.9 53.5 53.4 53.3 44.1 37 36.4 32.4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Scores out of 100, with 100 the highest. Source: BMI, 2009 In terms of potential growth by business, BMI expected life insurance will growth at a higher speed than non-life. (See more in the below table) 250 The Axco report on Insurance also stressed the country insurance sector drivers including: favourable economic condition, low-base and high-growth sector, foreign participation in the market. The concluded SWOT analysis for Viet Nam insurance sector is detailed below: Insurance Sector SWOT Analysis - Both Viet Nam’s life and non-life segments are rapidly Strengths growing. - Authorities are increasingly perceived of the benefits of foreign competition. - The economic conditions are likely to remain favourable with a low prospect of risks to the realisation of potential returns. - The starting point or the base of the high growth anticipated in both the life and non-life segments of the Weaknesses Vietnamese market is nonetheless very small. In the foreseeable future, the consequences of the global financial turmoil and the downturn of the world economy will affect the Viet Nam economic development and the insurance sector potentiality. - There is still a small number of players in the market, particularly in the life segment. 251 Opportunities Threats - GDP per capita is tiny, limiting the market for insurance products. - The ceding by large local firms of market share to rivals in the non-life segment demonstrates the openness of the market to new players - Viet Nam is considered to be a very promising market for insurers. There are still large numbers of people who are underinsured (or uninsured). - Increasing prospect of high ongoing inflation represents a general economic threat. There are many unsustainable development issues for an emerging economy like Viet Nam. - Underdevelopment and volatility in Vietnamese capital and bond markets represents an ongoing threat and less supportive for insurance sector to further develop. Under the view of SWOT, the four main drivers for insurance business to move forward in the long-run are: High economic growth rate The main engine to drive insurance industry to move forward has been and will be the sustainable economic growth of the country. Although the country is currently facing many economic difficulties due to global financial crises and economic recession, its economic growth is expected to be in the world highest growth rate economy group. In its latest report released in March 2009, the Business Monitor International predicted that Viet Nam will enjoy an average growth rate of 8% to 2018; other macro economic conditions also very favourable (see Table below). Benefits from the integration into the world economy After the US-Viet Nam bilateral trade agreement in 2001, Viet Nam became a full member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2006 and started opening up of insurance market for foreign investments. The commitment of strategic partnership by foreign investors will help local insurers to improve its competitiveness and get ready as the market is going to be fully open to the world. Given the fact that Viet Nam insurance sector still in nascent stage of 252 development if compared to a long history of the global insurance development of hundred years. The partnership with foreign counterpart will be the good choice for local insurer to exploit the foreign partnership skills and experiences and pave the way to the world market. Holding 18% stake in Bao Viet, HSBC will offer Bao Viet technical assistance and staff training. AXA , a leading non-insurance company in Europe has bought a 16.6% stake in Bao Minh, the second largest domestic insurer and will offer Bao Minh access to its technical expertise, including the secondment of specialist employees. The agreement between AXA-Bao Minh will help the local partner to diversify insurance products, improve the quality of insurance services and promote business administrative reform and build Bao Minh brand. Besides, Bao Minh has also reached an agreement with Chubb that will see the US insurer offering specialty liability insurance in Viet Nam. Chubb will also offer technical training and offer assistance in the area of reinsurance. Increasing foreign direct investments The attractions of Viet Nam to foreign, as well as domestic, investors are clear: a large, and young population eager to work hard to improve their lot and open to foreign influences after decades of ineffective ideological indoctrination. Viet Nam has enjoyed a growing inflow of direct investment into its fledgling manufacturing sector in recent years as its accession to WTO in 2007 and low labour costs have made it an attractive outsourcing destination for apparel manufacturers and electronics producers. As the economy is more developed, continued strong foreign investment into the manufacturing sector will remain the prime driver of growth over the next 10 years, and Viet Nam is expected to moving up the value-added chains as the advantages of sourcing production in the country become apparent for a wider range of manufacturing firms. Commitment to complete the state owned enterprises reform Transformation from state-owned to private-owned companies means no more government subsidies or soft-lending to cover losses. The need to use insurance as tool to protect company’s assets and to hedge against any natural disasters and other type risks will be popular. There will be a room for non-life insurance sector to develop in the future as long as the Government committed to continue its structural reform in its state owned enterprises. Emerging middle class & increasing literacy rate Viet Nam is among a few developing countries who own a very high literacy rate (more than 90% population in and above school age) which can be compared to even that of a developed country. This will help the Vietnamese people easier to understand and get access to information regarding the obligatory insurance and the benefits of other voluntary insurance. Since the starting of “Doi moi”(or Innovation), the high and stable economic growth in a long period of time had enabled the emerging of increasing new middle class with a fairly higher income than the average and become a potential customer base for life insurance. 253 2.7 Over all goals and policy r ecommendations for compr ehensive development of insur ance ser vices in Viet Nam The overall objectives for insurance sector development - To develop a competitive insurance market with diversified ownerships and fully integrated into the world. - To build up comprehensively market component, improve the competiveness of local insurers by financial and professional capacity building. - To diversify insurance products to meet market demand. - To ensure the fairness and transparency of insurance market by creating a level playing field for all market participants. - To enhance and innovate the Government regulatory methods towards insurance market. 2.8 Policy r ecommendations State regulatory policies - Completing the policies, mechanism and legal framework regarding insurance business operation to develop a sound and secured market in line with the integration process; to maintain the insurer’s pro-activeness and selfresponsibility. - Making the Government policies to encourage residents to participate in life insurance and giving priority to develop long-run life insurance products; encouraging insurance companies to carry out research and development insurance products in the fields of agriculture, forestry, fishery; expanding the operation range to mountainous areas. - Expanding the professional insurance agent network, insurance brokerage companies, and other product distribution channels; Diversifying to type of business operation for insurance brokerage companies. - Approving and legalizing the diversifications of investment vehicles set up by insurance companies such as investment fund, trust fund, fund management companies, bond fund, etc, - Level playing field in insurance markets between foreign and local insurers; encouraging foreign insurance companies to invest premium turnover in Viet Nam by apply the same investment policies, mechanisms as the local competitors. - Supporting local insurance companies to go globally or to expand the operation to over sea by setting joint ventures with foreign leading insurance companies, insurance brokerage companies, reinsurance companies abroad and/or to form a subsidiaries over sea. 254 - Enhancing the public perceptions on the needs for and the benefits insurance through multimedia communications. - Promulgating a law on the bankruptcy of joint stock companies and financial organisations, including insurance companies. Insurance company operation arrangements - Improving the financial capability for insurance sectors by requiring insurance companies to increase its charter capital that match with the type of insurance business registered and the business scale. - Modernizing the insurance sector by applying IT in business administration and international standard management procedures. - Improving the insurance industry training and education activities in line with global best practises and standards. - Restructuring the existing local insurance companies to improve the competitive capability, develop new insurance products and policies and increase market share and expand to other markets. - Using available funds and resources in the economy other than state budget to set up insurance companies under the Insurance Law. - Developing the insurance distribution via non-traditional channels such as banc assurance and telemarketing. State management and supervision over insurance services - Renovating the methods of management and enhancing the state management capability over the insurance business activities towards the international insurance management standards and principles. - State’s supervising the insurance business activities based on a set of criteria measuring the insurance company performance. The supervisory authority will be streamlined and administrative practices reviewed to ensure effective and efficient supervision, consumer protection and the financial security of the insurance industry. - Examining, doing inspections and enforcement of regulations and penalizing the regulation violation. The Viet Nam Insurance Association - Consolidating the structure and operation of the Viet Nam Insurance Association for being the bridge connecting the insurance companies and the regulators. - Building capacity of human resource: Holding training courses for practitioners in the industry and to disseminate relevant information among members; 255 Improving training requirements which will involve only insurance agents at first but are likely to be widened later to include other categories of insurance personnel. - Suggesting policy recommendation to regulatory bodies handling the difficulties for members. Box: Three most important recommendations for insurance market development -Compeleting legal frameworks regarding insurance business operation in line with international practices and towards a more level playing field and strengthening financial strength for existing insurers in Vietnam. -State’s supervising the insurance business activities based on a set of criteria measuring the insurance company performance. The supervisory authority will be streamlined and administrative practices reviewed to ensure effective and efficient supervision, consumer protection and the financial security of the insurance industry. -Buiding capacity of human resource for insurance industry by continuing training practitioners in the industry and to disseminate relevant information among members; Improving training SECURITIES SECTOR Executive Summary Since the launch of the first stock exchange in Viet Nam (the so-called securities trading center) in mid 2000, the securities industry and securities market has expanded with an incredible pace in terms of size and depth. Market capitalization increased from nearly to zero percent of GDP to the highest level of more than 40% of GDP in 2007. The market structure has been completing and improving in line with the development of the market. Market intermediates have increased significantly with more diversification of securities businesses. The number of trading accounts opened by investors has also jumped from nearly 3,000 to 530 thousands accounts from 2000 to 2008. The booming of Viet Nam stock market during 2006-2007 has brought the market into the highest growth markets in the world and attracted much attention from international investors. However, the collapse of “bubble” in late 2007 and 2008 has exposed many issues and vulnerability in the markets as a result of incomplete legal frameworks, an inappropriate market structure, and a weak supervisory and enforcement capacity of securities regulators. The securities sector has been opened up gradually since 2000. Currently, the limit of 49% of foreign ownership is applied to all public companies (whether or not listed, excluding commercial banks), securities companies, investment fund managers. Under the WTO commitments, all barriers of foreign participations in securities market is expected to be abolished by 2011. The existence of the two separate stock exchanges with similar trading mechanisms in Viet Nam has created many misinterpretations and increased costs for intermediaries and therefore 256 transaction cost for investors. The efficient market structure for sustainable development still unclear and the continuation of the two exchanges is accepted as a matter of fact. The fist Law on securities which has been promulgated in 2006 and came into effect since the beginning of 2007 has significant impacts on the development of the securities market in recent years. But the high pace of market development made the Law incompatible and impediment to the market to move forward. Many shortcomings in the Law and current regulations are expected to correct by its revision. The weak securities supervision and enforcement capability of market regulators and operators made its difficult to ensure a transparent, fair and efficient market, to maintain investors’ confidence and to get ready with the coming integration into the global financial market. 2.1 The 10 year s development of Viet Nam secur ities mar ket and ser vices Being established and fully regulated by the Government, the development of the nascent securities market in Viet Nam is coherent with and strongly affected by the structural changes and the determination of the regulatory bodies. The examination of market structure and regulatory organization before the market operation will therefore give us a more comprehensive view of the 10 year development of the securities market in Viet Nam. State Securities Commission The State Securities Commission of Viet Nam (SSC) which officially established in November 1996 is responsible for the organisation, development and supervision of the country’s securities market. Before February 2004, the SSC had operated as an organ directly belonging to the Prime Minister. During this period, the SSC could not well regulate the market due to some structural weaknesses. Consequently, the Prime Minister decided, on February 19th 2004, to hand over the task of managing the SSC to the Ministry of Finance under the Decree 66/2004/ND- CP. The Government hopes that the transfer would help to improve the performance of the market, which has not been performing well since its establishment in July 2000. Although some concerns were raised about the dependence of the SSC operations may affect the market development the Securities Law 2006 has stipulated the SSC being a part of the Ministry of Finance. Under the new model of operation, the main functions of the SSC are as follows (according to the Decision 63/2007/QĐ-TTg dated 10th May 2007 by the Prime Minister): - Formulating and implementing strategies, plans, policies and projects to develop the securities market in Viet Nam; - Drafting and enforcing regulations and guidelines related to securities and securities markets; - Working out regulations on organization and operations of organized securities trading market in Viet Nam; 257 - Licensing and enforcing regulations over the operations of securities companies, securities advisers, securities investment funds, and securities depositaries & custodians; and their practitioners; - Exercising surveillance, inspection and enforcement and examining the compliance of securities regulations by securities issuers, listed organizations, securities business, services providers and investors in the market. - Training and licensing authorised practitioners for the securities industry. Regarding the organisational structure, the main functioning departments of the SSC includes: Securities Market Development, Securities Issuance Management, Securities Business Management, Fund Management Company and Investment Fund Management, Legal Affairs, Supervision and Enforcement, Market Surveillance, and Centre for Securities Research and Training. As stipulated by Article 7 of the Securities Law, the Ministry of Finance will be responsible on behalf of the government to exercise state administration of securities and the securities market, and has the following duties and powers: - To submit to the government and to the Prime Minister of the government for promulgation, strategies, a master plan, and policies for the development of the securities market; - To submit to the competent body for promulgation or to promulgate in accordance with its own authority, legal instruments on securities and the securities market; - To direct the SSC in implementation of the strategies, master plan and policies for development of the securities market and the policies and regime for administration and supervision of securities and securities market activities. The Securities Exchanges The Ho Chi Minh City Securities Trading Centre and Hanoi Securities Trading Centre (STC) have been established according to the Decision No 127/1998/QDTTg dated 11/7/1998. The STC is an organisation under the control of the SSC. Its operating expenses are partly covered by the government budget. The STC assumes responsibilities of organising, executing and supervising securities trading activities on the Centre. Despite of its names but at that point of time, the organizational model as well management council model was designed similar to that of typical securities exchanges from other countries in the world. STCs take charge to organize, operate and monitor the securities trading activities at the centre. According to the Decree 144/2003/ND-CP dated 28/11/2003, the authorities and responsibilities of the STCs as the following: i. Organizing, managing and monitoring the listed securities exchanges; ii. Managing securities exchange system; 258 iii. Managing and monitoring the listed securities; activities of the members of the STC and information disclosure by listed companies; iv.Organizing market information dissemination. The HCM STC official had operated since 28th of July 2000 and the Hanoi STC had launched in 8th March 2005. Since 2007, as the Securities Law came into effect, the two STC started to transform from an STC to a “modern” exchanges which has organization similar partly to a single-member limited liability company owned by state and partly to state General Corporation. The exchanges is said to become more independent in its operation to the SSC under the Law. The Ho Chi Minh City STC has completed the transformation in July 2007 and became the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (or HoSE in short). Hanoi STC began its transformation about a year later and has just finished the procedure in June 2009 to become the second stock exchange in the country under the name Hanoi Stock Exchange (or HNX in short). The main functions and obligations of exchanges is clearly stated in Article 37 and 38 of the Securities Law as follows: i. To promulgate rules on listing securities, on trading securities, on disclosure of information and on trading members after obtaining approval from the State Securities Commission. ii. To organize and to operate securities trading activities on the Stock Exchange and to ensure that securities trading activities are conducted on the market publicly, fairly, in an orderly manner and effectively; iii. In necessary cases in order to protect investors, to temporarily suspend, suspend or to halt trading of securities in accordance with the rules on trading securities of the Stock Exchange or Securities Trading Centre. iv. To approve or to delist securities listing and to supervise the maintenance of conditions for securities listing on the Stock Exchange listing companies. v. To approve or to withdraw the membership of trading members; to supervise securities trading activities by trading members on the Stock Exchange. vi. To supervise activities of disclosure of information by listing organizations and by trading members on the Stock Exchange. vii. To supply market information and other information relating to listed securities and to disclose information in accordance with regulation. After unifying the government bond auction function and trading market onto Hanoi STC (now known as HNX) in the mid of 2008, the current products and trading markets run and directly managed by the two exchanges are still not so clearly defined and sometimes misleading for outsiders, especially in the stock trading market. The guidelines given by the Decree 14/2007/ND-CP dated 19th January 2009 (Decree 14 in short) becomes more complicated since the transformation of Hanoi STC to a stock exchange completed. The 259 conditions for listing shares on stock exchange are stipulated in Article 8 of Decree 14 while Article 9 stipulates the conditions for listing shares on a Securities Trading Centre. Item 1a of Article 8 and 9 and raises the minimum capital requirement respectively as follows: “The shareholding company must, at the time of registration for listing, have a minimum amount of paid-up registered capital of ten (10) billion Vietnamese dong calculated at the value recorded in the accounting books.” “The shareholding company must, at the time of registration for listing, have a minimum amount of paid-up registered capital of eighty (80) billion Vietnamese dong calculated at the value recorded in the accounting books. Based on the developmental status of the market, the Ministry of Finance may increase or decrease this amount within a maximum range of thirty (30) per cent after seeking the opinion of the Prime Minister of the Government” As long as there is no more STC, both stock exchanges should, in principle, apply the same minimum capital requirement of VND80 billion which in its turns will raise a serious question of the necessity of the existence of the two exchanges with very similar trading mechanisms in Viet Nam. HoSE operates the listing market for stocks and corporate bonds (of public companies with registered capital of VND 80 billion or more) and municipal bonds. The HNX runs at the same times three separate markets which are: the secondary market for listing of public companies’ stocks and bond with registered capital from VND 10 billion, the market for unlisted public companies (which known as UPCoM 47 in short) and the government bond market. It means that even the name of HNX as an exchange, the real status of HNX is still recognised as an STC. The current decision by regulator to move listed companies with paid-in capital above-VND80 billion in HNX to HoSE and the below-VND 80 billion ones in HoSE to HNX is a proof for that matter. The HoSE is now designed to list only large-sized public companies with registered capital of VND 80 billion or more while the HNX is for smaller to medium sized public companies from VND 5 billion to below VND80 billion. Under the division of listing stipulated in Securities Law and its guidelines, the move of large listing companies in HNX to HoSE and the shift of smaller listing companies in HoSE to HNX are expected to be done within this year. The Viet Nam Securities Depository The Viet Nam Securities Depository (VSD) is established in 2004 by a “simple” combination of the two securities depository divisions of Hanoi STC and Ho Chi Minh City STC. Before that, each depository division acted as a supporting division for securities trading in each centre in the field of securities registration, securities depository, clearing and settlement of securities transaction. The main duties of VSD are stipulated in Article 45 of the Securities Law as follows: 47 The UPCoM market has been put into operation on 24 June, 2009, which is known as an effort by the MOF/SSC to narrow the unregulated markets. The products can be traded in the market including stock and convertible bonds of unlisted public companies. 260 i. To issue rules on securities registration, depository, clearance and payment after obtaining approval from the State Securities Commission; ii. To approve or to withdraw the membership of depository members; to supervise the VSD rule compliance by depository members. iii. To supply services of securities registration, depository, clearance and payment and other services related to securities depository at the request of clients. iv. To manage separately assets of clients. The VSD is also transformed to become an independent (single member limited liability) company owned by state in June 2009 as required by the Securities Law. The settlement cycle applies for securities trading in the two exchanges generally are T+3 with some exception of T+1 for large block trades and government bond trades. Market intermediaries • Securities companies Before 2007, the securities companies’ financial capacity required by regulations was rather small. The four main activities of the securities companies, according to Decree 144/2003/ND-CP, including dealing, portfolio management, and securities issuance guarantee and securities investment consultancy had minimum capital requirements of. Securities companies can be established in the form of joint stock companies or limited companies with registered capital. By regulation, securities companies can be established in either joint-stock or limited liability ones. Moreover, the main businesses of the securities companies could consist of brokerage, owned-trading, securities investment portfolio management, underwriting, and financial and securities investment advisory. Securities companies, which are licensed by the SSC as brokers or dealers, are eligible to register as members of the STC. Importantly, only members of the STC have been permitted to trade securities through the trading system of the STC. In order to receive a securities business license, one has to fulfil some requirements: - having a business plan that is in line with the objectives of socio-economic development and growth of the securities industry; - having adequate technical facilities for securities businesses; - having a minimum levels of legal capital as prescribed for each type of securities businesses as follows: 1 2 Types of business Brokerage Securities dealing Minimum capital required VND 3 billion VND 12 billion 261 3 4 5 Investment portfolio management Underwriting Securities investment consultancy Total VND 3 billion VND 22 billion VND 3 billion VND 43 billion If a securities company intended to apply for a license of various securities businesses, the required legal capital level must be a cumulative amount of minimum legal capital required for each type of a licensed business. For instance, if a company expects to be licensed all types of securities business, it must have at least VND 43 billion. The minimum capital requirements were said to be underestimated the necessary capital to maintain the financial securities and provided service quality of the securities companies. It is also said that some of the businesses were not only belong to Securities Company but also to other financial institutions such as underwriting. The fact that it is very risky to let a securities company with rather small capital (VND 22 billion) to underwrite for a hundreds billion VND of bond/stock issuance. On the contrary, securities depository is a type of business that Securities Company was currently doing did not require any additional capital. As of December 31st 2005, 13 securities companies have been licensed with a total registered capital of VND 605,750 million (USD 38.47 millions). Of these, nine companies have capital of VND 43,000 million (USD 2.73 million) or more and have conducted all kinds of securities business in the market. During and especially the end of 2006, there was a rush of applying for securities business license before the new Law came into effect. There were 41 new securities companies have been licensed within 2006, increased the number of securities companies from 14 to 55 companies. (See Figure below) Trading account vs. Securities Companies Securities Company 150 Trading Account 600 500 50 100 securities Co. Thousands Account. 700 400 300 200 100 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 QII 2009 Since the effectiveness of Securities Law in 2007, some of the above issues have been solved. According to the guideline regulation (i.e. the Decree 14/ND-CP dated 19/1/2007), the segregation of functional activities carried by Securities Company and investment fund 262 Management Company have helped to strengthen the professionalism and specialization of securities intermediaries. As stipulated, if a securities company want to have license of four main securities business, the minimum legal capital must be 300 billion VND (see Table below). Types of business Minimum capital required 1 Brokerage VND 25 billion 2 Securities dealing VND 100 billion 3 Underwriting VND 165 billion 4 Securities investment consultancy VND 10 billion Total VND 300 billion The regulation also allows two year grace for existing securities companies to fulfill the Law. By the end of 2007, there were 36/78 licensed securities companies registered all types of businesses. The capital of securities companies has increased significantly to strengthen the company’s financial status since the implementation of the Securities Law. The average registered capital per securities company increased 2,3 times from 2006 to 2007 (see below table) and continued to rose 34% more in 2008 reaching an average of VND 212 billion. Table: Financial Capability Expansion by Securities Companies Year 2004 No. of securities Companies 13 Registered capital Average capital % Net Change 606.00 46,62 2005 2006 2007 2008 15 55 78 102 723.75 3,755.50 12,382.75 21,626.00 48,25 68,28 158,75 212,02 4% 42% 132% 34% In parallel with the financial capacity enhancement, securities companies are required to separate the client’s deposit accounts from the companies’ account and put them into the banks in preventing the misuse by the securities companies. The measure was considered a strong determination by regulator to improve the market transparency and thereby improve the quality of service offered by the companies. The implementation was actually started since March 2008 but has been postponed until the 1st of October, 2008. By the end of 2008, there were 70 out of 100 securities companies completed the process. •Securities investment funds and fund management companies 263 The Securities Law recognises two types of securities investment fund: public funds (including closed-ended funds and open-ended funds), which are defined as securities investment funds that publicly offer securities, and member funds, which are limited to 30 members who are legal persons. The establishment of a public fund and the offering of its certificates must be registered with the SSC, whereas the establishment of a member fund requires only notification to the SSC. A fund management company can be established only as either a limited liability company or a joint stock company under the new Enterprise Law. It will be licensed to conduct securities investment fund management and portfolio management. A fund management company is permitted to invest in securities and real estate. Shareholders of the fund company are not permitted to have day-to-day control over the investment decisions of the fund. The Securities Law specifically permits a Vietnameselicensed fund management company to manage foreign funds where the objective is to make investments in Viet Nam. Unfortunately, Decision 45 is unclear on whether Vietnamese fund management companies can manage funds that are not listed on a foreign exchange. In addition, a fund management company has to inform the SSC of the establishment of the offshore fund at least 10 days before the submission of the application to the foreign authority for the establishment of the fund. It al so has to notify the SSC within 10 days after completion of establishment of the fund. The minimum level of legal capital of a fund management company according to Decree 14/2007/ND-CP is VND 25 billion. Before 2007, the minimum required capital for this type of company was VND18 billion. Under the Securities Law, portfolio investment management should be done by a fund management companies. The increase in the number of fund management companies had a positive relation with the level of professional level of the market. There was a surge in the number of fund management companies during the time (2006-2008) that Viet Nam stock market was on the toplist of high growth market in the world. 264 • Securities investment companies For the first time, the Securities Law provides for the establishment, organisation and operation of securities investment companies, which, like fund management companies, must be established as either limited liability companies or joint stock companies under the new Enterprise Law. Decree 14 contemplates two types of securities Investment Company: (i) public securities investment companies, which conduct public offerings of shares, and (ii) securities investment companies, which conduct private placement of shares. A securities investment company is permitted to manage its own investment capital or to entrust a fund management company to do so. Any foreign investment company or foreign securities investment fund that is a legal entity wishing to invest in Viet Nam must entrust a domestic fund management company or establish a branch in Viet Nam to manage its investment capital. The details of these requirements, which could significantly affect the booming foreign fund business, are being debated. • Custodian banks Custodian banks are regulated by the Securities Law. A custodian bank must be a commercial bank licensed by the SSC to provide custodian services. The main role of the custodian bank is to retain custody of the assets of an investment fund and to supervise the investment of a public fund’s capital by the management company. 2.2 The evolution of the Viet Nam secur ities mar ket (2000-2008) As mentioned above in section 1.2, the Viet Nam official securities market operates with two exchange centres namely HCM City securities exchange centre (STC) and Hanoi STC which were formed by the end of 1998. The HCM STC official has operated since July 28, 2000 and the Hanoi SEC just has launched in March 8, 2005. The HCMC STC has just celebrated its 10 years along the way with the securities market in Viet Nam. In this part, the examination of stock market in Viet Nam will focus generally on the official or organized part of the market, namely the HCM STC and Hanoi STC and make the combination of date where appropriate. The achievements of Viet Nam stock market in the last 10 years In the first trading sections of the HCM STC, there were only two stock kinds of REE and SACOM traded. The growth of the market in terms of amount of the listed companies in the beginning period was very slowly. By the end of 2000, there were only 5 joint stock companies listed; in 2001 there were more 5 companies and 2002 with 10 more listed companies. Therefore, from 2001 to 2003, there were totally 21 joint stock companies listed with total capitals of 1086 billion VND. If the government bonds included, the total of market capital just reached the value of more than 8,700 billion VND. The important point in the period that after the securities market was opened, all listed stock prices go up day by day. Therefore, the VN-INDEX has grown strongly and continuously, 265 from the basic level of 100 to the record one of 571.04 in 25/6/2001 within a year. The main reason to explain the strong increase of the stock prices was that there was big imbalance between stock demand and supply and investors’ psychology put very high expectation on the new investment form. Table: Key indicators for Viet Nam stock market in 2000-2008 Indicators No. of listing companies Trading value (bil.VND) Average daily trading (bil.VND) No. of trading accounts No. of fund management Comp. Market capitalization (bil. VND) Market Cap./GDP Year-end VNIndex % Change VNIndex 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 5 11 20 23 26 41 193 250 338 90.21 964.02 959.33 502.02 2,003.87 3,304.74 42,092.4 269,154 1.39 6.13 3.23 2.908 8.780 13.607 16.486 21.600 986 1.570 1.71 6.80 180,978 18.50 161.03 1,066.83 737.94 29.065 110.652 312.139 531.428 2 5 18 25 46 2.436 2.370 4.516 9.598 237.276 492.900 225.935 0,28% 0,34% 0,48% 0,39% 0,63% 1,21% 22,70% 40,00% 19,76% 207 235 183 167 239 308 752 927 318 13,5% 22,1% -8,7% 65,7% 13,5% 22,1% 8,7% -65,7% Source: SSC, HoSE, HNX and author’s calculation It seemed that the too rapid increase of the stock index in a short period of time has pushed the stock price well above the real value. Therefore, to adjust the market, the SSC has introduced a series of measures, such as increasing stock supply, reducing transaction margins, setting up the maximum volume to buy stock in one trading day. These measures affected market immediately and made the stock prices going down. However, the price decline was unexpectedly strong and in the long period. In fact, the VN-Index has continuously gone down from 571,04 to the bottom 130,9 in 24/10/2003. The securities market has experienced a gloomy period in more than a year until the end of 2004. The cause of this situation partly came from the incomplete legal framework for the securities market, especially the procedures to offer securities to the public are still complicated, and the 266 conditions to issue are still tough. On the other hand, the market scale is too small with very few products; the market liquidity is not high. These issues together with the information disclosure requirements made the joint stock companies unable to see the advantages of the securities market as a effective capital mobilization channel for them if listed. Besides, the market stagnation also deteriorated the investors’ confidence in the securities market. By the end 2003, there were 14,000 transaction accounts opened at 12 securities companies, in which there were more than 90 organizational investors, taking account of 0.6% and 35 foreign investors. Total market capitalization reached only 0.5% GDP in 2003. The market progress in 2004 had no special things. After reaching the bottom, VN-Index had recovered a little bit and kept stable at the level of above 200 point from the January 2004. The number of listed companies went up to 26 companies, however the market capitalization did not change much (0.63% GDP). Total trading value in 2004 reached more than VND2,000 billion with the average daily trading value at 6.8 billion. Therefore, with the tiny market scale in this time, the Viet Nam securities market was not able to act as a capital mobilization channel for the economy, especially through securities issuance. The year 2005 witnessed the securities market’s recovery signal. As of 30/12/2005, VNIndex reached 307, 50 basic points. Particularly, in this year, the market scales had expanded significantly partly by putting the Hanoi STC into operation in mid 2005. By the end of 2005, there were 32 joint stock companies allowed to list at HCMC STC and 9 companies in Hanoi STC, which are mainly restructured SOEs through equalization. The total of market capitalization reached VND9, 689 billion by the end of 2005, taking account of 2% GDP. The daily trading value in 2005 had jumped as triple as that in 2004 with VND18.50 billion in value. In the beginning of 2006, the securities market had a turning point with the listing of Vinamilk Corporation that made total stock value traded in the HCMC STC increased twice, about VND16,000 billion. More importantly, the securities market started to attract the participation of blue-chip companies to the certain extent that they have realized the securities market as an effective channel to mobilize capital. At the same time, the Government implemented many promoting measures including the permission of foreign investors to list in the securities market. The year 2006 was marked with the dramatic rise of the listed companies. By the end of 2006, there were 193 companies listed in the securities markets in HCM and HN STCs in which there are many companies with their capital reaches billion thousands VND such as PhaLai Power Company. The turnover ratio 48 of all stocks in the market in 2006 increased 8 times as compared to the whole previous period (SSC, 2006). The securities market trend in the first half of 2006 had no special apart from the fact that the VN Index increased strongly. By October 2006, this index reached 500 point which was the level had been attained 5 years ago. The total market capitalization by the end of 2006 reached 340,000 billion VND or 13.8 billion USD (equivalent to 22, 7% GDP), and up to April 2007 was equivalent to 24.4 billion 48 A market liquidity indicator that calculates the market traded value of the stock(s) over the par value of that stock(s) in a period of time. 267 USD, 20 times compared to the year 2005. The increasing speed of market capitalization has exceeded far from the level 10-15% proposed by the government in the Development Strategy for the securities market up to 2010. The number of the listed companies went up about five times from 41 companies in 2005 to 193 in 2006. The number of the trading accounts of the investors 49 at the securities companies was above 120,000 by 12/2006, 3 times compared to by the end of 2005 and 30 times compared to the beginning year. In the first quarter of 2007, there were 60,000 accounts has opened, equivalent to the number of the whole beginning period (2000-05). The account number of the individual foreign investors also rises strongly in that period with 1,700 accounts and they are holding about 30% of stock amount of the listed companies. As for the organizational investors, so far there were 55 securities companies, 35 investment funds, in which 23 foreign investment funds. One thing is not least important is that the market’s liquidity has improved significantly; in the first 3 months of the year 2006, the daily stock trading value at HCM STC floor reached VND1,000 billion per day; and that of the Hanoi STC was VND300 billion per day. Meanwhile, from 2005 backward, the stock trading value per day fluctuated only from several millions to billion VND. From the end of 2006 to the first quarter of 2007, the market became so excited with the country economic development prospect and the welcoming WTO accession of Viet Nam which marked the most spectacular development in the securities market history so far. Beginning from the event that Viet Nam was the hosting country of the APEC Conference in November 2007 and some special events such as Viet Nam becoming the WTO member which promises a bright perspective for attracting foreign investment into Viet Nam in which the securities market included. Along with impressive economic development in the last time as well as the perspective development in the next years, these important events have affected directly on the nascent securities market of Viet Nam. The securities investment has attracted the investors so much that have never happened before. Just only in the short period, the VNIndex increases sharply from 511.54 points in the last day of October 2006 up to the top of 1,17067 points in 13 May 2007. The level of increase within 4 months (except the Tet 49 By regulation, each investor is allowed to open only one securities trading account in one securities company. 268 holiday) reached nearly 130%. In the Hanoi STC trading floor, HaSTC- Index also increased from 241.92 in the first trading day in 2007 up to the highest level of 459.36 in 19 March 2007. The strong leap of the market indices, however, was commented at that time as an “overheating” and “unsustainable” signal of the market. After a short period of hyper-growth, in corresponding with expectations of many foreign and domestic experts, the Viet Nam securities market has been entering into the period of self-adjustment. After reaching the top with VN-Index 1,170 basic points by the middle of March, 2007, the market has gone down continuously and after more than a month, the VN-Index has returned the level of 900 points (as of 23 April 2007). The securities market has attracted the public attention when the VNIndex exceeds 1000 points again in May 8 2007. However, according to some experts, the strong increase momentum in the two continuous trading sections can stretch the sustainability of the circles. The year 2008 has gone below the expectation of investors and the anticipation of researchers as the market slumped to the lowest level since 2004 and closing by the year end with 315.62 points (equal to one third of last year end level). After two years on the top of the global list of highest growth markets, the plunge of VNIndex in 2008 is recorded as the strongest decline in the world and from the time the market had been put into operation in July, 2000. Market capitalization reduces to about 20% of GDP, a half of that in 2007. Total trading value decreased by 30% of that in last year. There are a number of reasons that could explain for the speedy downturn of the market, it is agreed that the most important reasons were the market “over-heating” growth in the last two years, the consequences of global financial crisis in 2008 and a massive and uncontrollable supply of stocks to the market. Statistically, the two stock exchanges in Hanoi va Ho Chi Minh City have received 87 newly listing stocks of which many stocks of giant corporations, namely Hoang Anh Gia Lai Group, Petro Viet Nam Finance Corporation, Vinaconex, etc… Besides, hundreds of public companies have offered its shares to public to raise additional capital of 30% to 200% of the original. As planed based on the favourable market conditions in the last two years, the state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform has been boosted by the Government by continuously making initial public offering (IPO) of stock for many giant state owned corporations such as VietinBank, Sabeco, Habeco,… etc. A huge supply of stocks has made the situation worsen as the trading volume and trading value was significantly plummeting, especially in the year-end months. The HoSE average daily trading value in 2008 was VND 462.7 billion, a decrease of 40% that of 2007. The HaSTC average daily trading value in 2008 declined by two thirds of that in 2007 from VND 500 billion to VND 150 billion. A number of stabilization measures taken by regulators did not help to recover the market. The State Capital Investment Corporation (SCIC)- a representative and investment arm of state ownership in enterprises has been assigned to buy in stocks which is under pressure of selling out of pledged shares by commercial banks to collect money back. The SSC has 269 encouraged listed companies to buy treasury stocks, and adjusted the daily price trading limits 50 to prevent the market from further plunge. Despite of all these measures, many of the listed stocks, finally, dropped 80 to 90% of the value over one year. In every conner of the streets, investors complained the regulators for being lost. Continued the trend by the end of 2008, the VN Index has plunged to the lowest trough of 235.5 point (on 24th February, 2009) since 2005. The index then recovered and grew quickly in May and June, 2009 reaching 512.46 point on 9th June 2009 showing an increase of 65%. Market capitalization in the middle of 2009 expanded significantly to VND407, 000 billion, almost doubled that of 2008. There are 30 newly listed stocks during this period including very big companies, such as Vietcombank, Saigon Hanoi joint stock commercial bank, etc…. The unlisted public companies (Upcom in short) market has been put into operation by 24th of June, 2009 with 12 stocks trading initially. This is an effort by the Government to narrow the unregulated market trading unlisted public companies’ securities. Under the Securities Law, any companies that fall into public company category 51 should register the status with State Securities Commission. Under the Decision 108/2008/QD-BTC, the unlisted public companies are able to register with HNX for trading their securities in Upcom Market without any special conditions or additional cost. So far, the market did not attractive for most unlisted public companies for several reasons. Some very liquid and active traded stocks of public companies, for example Military Joint Stock Bank, Eximbank,etc… are not willing to be traded in Upcom since these companies lose a significant benefit from collecting fees for transfer of ownership. The shareholders are not ready too due to the much longer term of payment (T+3 as compared to T+0 currently) and improper trading mechanism. Bond Market Development During the period 2000-2002, government bond is the major commodity listed at HCM STC, however, transactions of government bond have been rarely undertaken. There was a trend that bond holders implementing buy and hold strategy rather than trading in the market, bond trading are therefore not significant. The trading value is very low during this period, only accounting for 0.4% over the total value of listed bond (see table on turnover ratio). 50 On March 27, 2008, daily price limit was adjusted from +/-5% to +/-1% in HoSE and +/-10% to +/-2% in HaSTC. On April 07, 2008, daily price limit was raised to +/-2% in HoSE and to +/-3% in HaSTC On June 19, 2008, daily price limit was extended to +/-3% in HoSE and to +/-4% in HaSTC On August 18, 2008, daily price limit was increased to +/-5% in HoSE and to +/-7% in HaSTC 51 Article 25, Law on Securities on public companies: 1. A public company means a shareholding company which belongs to one of the following three categories: (a) A company which has made a public offer of shares; (b) A company which has shares listed on the Stock Exchange or a Securities Trading Centre; (c) A company which has shares owned by at least one hundred (100) investors excluding professional securities investors, and which has paid-up charter capital of ten (10) billion VND or more. 2. The shareholding companies defined in clause 1(c) of this article must lodge the public company file stipulated in clause 1 of article 26 of this Law with the State Securities Commission within a time-limit of ninety (90) days from the date such shareholding company becomes a public company. 270 In 2003, due to a double amount of listed bond than the period of 2000-2002 with 100 listed bonds and regulations to push bond trading in general and government bond trading in particular as such: no amount limitation for bonds held by institutions, individuals; removing trading bands; it caused a high increase of trading government bond, in both amount and value. About the trading value, the value of order matching transactions in 2003 was nearly double and the trading value of negotiation transaction reached 21 times bigger than that of in 2002. Table: Turnover Ratio Year Listing value million) (VND Trading value ( VND Trading million) value (%) 2000 1,100,000 39.21 0.004% 2001 2,731,633 58,148.32 2.13% 2002 4,113,633 113,985.70 2.77% 2003 11,496,633 2,464,186.04 21.43% 2004 21,528,333 17,546,854.31 81.51% 2005 34,610,333 21,014,853.47 60.72% 2006 47,245,700 42,044,492.50 88.90% 2007 129,451,033.1 116,768,175.3 84.69% 2008 159,169,700 187,950,866 118.08% value/listing During 2004-2006, the trading value of government bonds has been increased significantly with the use of repo agreement (re-purchase agreement) from 21.43% listed bond to be traded up to 81.51%, a four time increase. In the mean time, the amount of bonds traded via order matching method has been more and more narrowed down in comparison with negotiation transactions. As a result, all bonds have been traded under negotiation trading method since 2005. From 2003, the trading value of government bonds has increased sharply in comparison with the listing value; the turnover ratio of the year increased from 33% in 2003 to 174.9% in 2004 and up to 30/9/2006 has been 235% (see Table above). This shows an improvement in bond’s liquidity and investors’ attention on dealing of government bonds. The maturities of the listed government bonds are mainly 5 years, 10 years and 15 years. The number of government bond types traded is limited to some most currently listed government bonds. In fact, there have been 215 types of bonds traded over 317 types of bond (up to 30/9/2006) without reference price because of no trading since being listed. Interest rate of government bond issuance is not really standardized as a reference for financial institutions. 271 It has been interferred by issuers (the Ministry of Finance and the Viet Nam Development Bank) via the ceiling interest regime, not really determined by demand-supply. Another hand, inactive trading in the secondary market and low liquidity of bonds have not created a benchmark yield curve for other debt instruments. The operation of bond’s repo has been appeared since 2003 and the mainly active participants were securities companies and commercial banks. Since the trading system did not allow to separate the repo and out-right transactions, it is said that the majority of bond trading is repo trading. Yet, 5 years later, the legal document guiding on repo transactions has been promulgated in 2008. Table: Listed bond breakdown by issuers in HNX as of 31st December, 2008 Listed bonds by issuer No. of Listing bond volume type Government bonds: 520 1,591,697,000 1,980,227,625 124.4% by State Treasury 249 875,577,000 1,090,752,025 124.6% by Viet Nam Development Bank 270 711,120,000 889,475,600 125.1% Trading volume Turnover Ratio by Viet Nam Expressway Development 1 Company 5,000,000 Municipal bond: 4 15,050,000 2,000,000 13.3% by People’s Committee of Hanoi 4 15,050,000 2,000,000 13.3% Corporate bonds: 3 18,645,986 10,198,500 54.7% 0 0.0% by PetroViet Nam Join stock Finance 1 Corporation (PVFC) 3,645,986 0 0.0% by Viet Nam Electricity (EVN) 2 15,000,000 10.198,500 68.0% Total 527 1,625,392,986 1,992,426,125 122.6% Source: HNX, author’s calculation. The year 2008 is the booming year for the bond market in general and for government bond market in particular. As the market slumped down, the need for more safe and liquid instruments became increasingly high. In 2008, the bond turnover ratio far exceeded the level 100% for the first time since the opening of the market, reaching 122.6%. The main contribution still belongs to the government bonds which are considered the most secured instruments during the chaotic time. The liquidity of municipal bonds was also slightly improved. Market participants 272 Main entities participating in government bond trading during the period of 2001-2002 were commercial banks (accounting for 94% amount of bonds bought) and securities companies (accounting for more than 90%amount of bonds sold), other entities such as insurance companies, investment funds and financing companies mostly did not participate in or only participated with very small percentage. From 2003 up to now, investment funds, insurance companies, financing companies and other entities have participated actively in trading government bond, however, commercial banks and securities companies are still the most active entities (accounting for 50% over the total trading value). Though the trading percentage of investment funds, insurance companies, financing companies account for less than 10%; this is a positive signal proving the consideration of institutional investors, besides banks and securities companies, in the market of government bond. After the unification of bond auctions into Hanoi STC in mid 2006, the number of government bond auction members on HN STC increased significantly. The conditions to be a bidding member and underwriter is increasingly easy, but there has no clear regulation on responsibilities of members once participating in biddings or underwriting as a primary dealer and being a market maker in trading market. It not only caused difficulty for issuance but also an impact on the liquidity of the secondary trading market. By the end of 2008, there were 68 auction members in Hanoi STC of which 29 were securities companies, 17 local commercial bank, 8 foreign commercial banks and 14 other financial institutions. For some members of bond auction, purchasing bond is just for the purpose of holding bond in a long term, not for business. Some banks purchase government bonds as their reserves requirement, so that the percentage of bond trading is very low after purchasing in the primary market. Additionally, the number of members as tenders and underwriters for government bond are very limited, either quantity (there are only 4 members participating in each issue) or fund as well as experience; the value of each issue is quite small, tattered and a low percentage of successful issuance. 2.3 Cur r ent r egulator y fr amewor k for secur ities ser vices in Viet Nam While Viet Nam is some way off from structuring complex products on its exchanges, it is overhauling its domestic capital markets with a new Securities Law, which came into effect in early 2007. The Securities Law governs public offerings of securities, listings, dealing, trading and investment in securities, securities services, and the establishment and regulation of securities companies and investment funds. The Securities Law contemplates two types of domestic securities trading market: the Securities Trading Centre and the Stock Exchange. These are independent legal entities, although their operation and personnel are controlled and supervised by the local regulator, the State Securities Commission (SSC). The SSC is a state body overseen by the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and has no right to promulgate legal documents but to draft and submit to/through MOF for approval. On 17 January 2007, the Government issued Decree 14/2007/ND-CP implementing the Securities Law with regard to public offerings, listings, and the regulation of securities 273 companies, fund management companies and securities investment companies. The MOF has also issued a number of other regulations to implement the Securities Law and Decree 14, including the following: - Decision 35 dated 15 May 2007 on the organisation and management of fund management companies; - Decision 45 dated 5 June 2007 on the establishment and management of securities investment funds; - Decision 27 dated 24 April 2007 on securities companies; - Decision 13 dated 13 March 2007 on the model prospectus and registration files for the listing securities on the stock exchanges and securities trading centres; - Decision 12 dated 13 March 2007 issuing regulations on corporate governance applicable to listed companies on the stock exchanges and securities trading centres; - Circular 17 dated 13 March 2007 providing on application files for registration of securities offerings; and - Circular 38 dated 18 April 2007 on information disclosure in the securities market. Under the securities law, there are some other Decrees and guidelines to provide legal framework regarding foreign participations and punishment of regulation violation in securities and securities market in Viet Nam. - The Decree 36/2007/NĐ-CP by the Government dated March 8, 2007 to penalize the administrative violation in securities and securities market. - The Prime Minister signed Decision No. 55/2009/QĐ-TTg dated April 15, 2009 regulating foreign investors' participation in Vietnamese stock markets, which is effective from June 1, 2009 in place of Decision No. 238/2005/QĐ-TTg dated September 29, 2005. Public offerings of securities Viet Nam has a broad informal over-the-counter market. The Securities Law is expected to slowly cause this grey market to migrate onto the regulated market. Offers of securities via the ‘mass media’ or to more than 100 investors (excluding offers to professional investors) or to an unspecified number of investors constitute a public offering that must be registered. The Securities Law is limited to public issues of securities and does not apply to the private placement of unlisted securities. The par value of a public offered share is VND10, 000 (less than US$0.60) and the minimum par value of a publicly offered bond is VND100, 000 (about $6). In practice, the success of an offering is measured, slightly oddly, by the multiple to par value that investors are willing to pay. The application for public offerings takes the form of a registration statement, which includes the prospectus, the audited financial statements for the preceding two fiscal years, and the 274 issuer’s constitutional documents and relevant corporate resolutions. The main contents of a prospectus are prescribed in Decision 13 of the Ministry of Finance dated 13 March 2007. It is mandatory to follow the sample prospectus in this Decision. However, this does not preclude the inclusion of additional information necessary to make the prospectus accurate, true and objective. There are no set standards for financial statements. Foreign issuers may, therefore, enter the Vietnamese securities market with financial information provided to a high standard, which could result in inconsistencies in financial reporting and quality levels. Ownership by foreigners Ownership by foreigners of Vietnamese listed companies remains restricted. Under the new Prime Minister’s Decision 55/2009/QD-TTg, foreign ownership in public companies is limited to 49 per cent, and foreign ownership of a company operating in certain ‘sensitive’ sectors may be more restricted. For example, foreign ownership of listed banks is limited to just 30 per cent. Foreigners’ ownership of bond issuances is not limited. To purchase Vietnamese securities, foreigners need to comply with various requirements regarding foreign exchange and registration with the authorities. Overseas offerings and securities offerings by foreign institutions The Securities Law regulates only the domestic market and domestic issuers. However, it allows domestic issuers to make secondary offerings outside Viet Nam under certain conditions, including (i) not being a business in which participation by foreign investors is prohibited, (ii) not permitting foreign shareholding in an amount greater than that allowed by laws, (iii) having a plan for utilisation of the proceeds that has been approved by the directors or owners, and (iv) being able to meet the legal requirements of the overseas country in which the secondary offering is registered. Some domestic issuers, such as Vinamilk, are trying to take advantage of this reform. Advisers and underwriters of such offshore issues must contend with greater legal ambiguity in their position, as the laws and regulations are not yet complete. An issuer of publicly offered securities will normally be a joint stock company established in Viet Nam. International financial institutions in which Viet Nam is a member may also make offers of VND-denominated bonds, subject to certain specified conditions. Reporting and disclosure requirements Issuers of securities, listed institutions, securities firms and fund management companies are subject to certain reporting and information disclosure obligations. As well as complying with basic disclosure of financial information, timely disclosure of extraordinary items, such as significant financing arrangements or matters that may have a detrimental effect on the value of securities, will be required. The Securities Law attempts to provide greater transparency through higher disclosure requirements. However, the significant difference in this obligation between listed and unlisted public companies has discouraged public companies to list and to disclose information. 275 Insider trading The insider trading rules are very broadly drafted. ‘Inside information’ is defined as information on a public company that has not been published and that, had it been published, might have affected greatly the share price of such company. A person is prohibited from ‘using inside information’ to purchase or sell securities for itself or for a third party. A person trading on the basis of inside information may be subject to a fine or criminal liability and the proceeds of the trade may be confiscated. The following persons, among others, is considered to have inside information: members of the board of directors and inspection board, the general director, and the deputy general director; shareholders with 5 per cent or more of the shares of a company; auditors; and others with access to inside information. A large shareholder may be regarded as having inside information about an investee company on the ground that it owned 5 per cent or more of the shares or on the ground that it had access to inside information through due diligence performed before investment. Accordingly, to sell shares after a public offering, that shareholder would need to be satisfied either that the inside information has been disclosed or that the disclosure would not have a ‘major impact’ on the company’s share price. There is no jurisprudence on what might constitute a major impact, which might make it difficult to get comfortable on this point. 2.4 Some diagnostic assessment on the Viet Nam secur ities mar ket The SWOT analysis for securities sector in Viet Nam is given below: Securities Sector SWOT Analysis - The securities sector in Viet Nam are expanding very quickly Strengths -Investors and authorities are increasingly perceived of the benefits of securities market as a channel for investment and mobilization of capital. - Strong invests by foreign investors and global financial institutions. - The economic conditions are likely to remain favourable with a low prospect of risks to the realisation of potential returns. - Inadequate infrastructure for market operation and regulator; Weaknesses - Unskilful retail investors, insufficient training and weak investor protection. - Weak supervision and compliance capability by market operators and regulators to ensure a fair, efficient and transparent securities market. 276 - Underdeveloped market intermediaries (lack of human resource, technology, experiences), corporate governance issues, inadequate risk management procedures, etc - Un standard information disclosure systems with low computerization. Opportunities - Market openness allows to take advantage of funds, skills and experiences, and technologies by increasing foreign participation under WTO commitments - Viet Nam is considered to be a very promising market for. There are still large numbers of people who are underinsured (or uninsured). - Viet Nam securities market started from very low base There is still a room to develop more sophisticated market which contains sophisticated instruments and services (derivatives, asset-backed securities, mortgaged backed securities) and intermediaries. Threats - Increasing prospect of high ongoing inflation represents a general economic threat. There are many unsustainable development issues for an emerging economy like Viet Nam. - Weak coordination between agencies to manage and ensure the financial system stability (capital flight issues, early warning system for crisis, etc.,,) - Underdevelopment and volatility in Vietnamese capital markets represents an ongoing threat to sustainable development of the market. Inadequate supervision capability There are several inherent factors that contribute to the weaknesses of the existing securities market surveillance and compliance system: Insufficient legal framework: The Securities Law has come into full effect since January 2007. The Law provides relatively comprehensive supervision criteria over securities exchanges, public companies (including listed companies), securities firms, securities investment fund management companies, securities investment funds and investment companies, and self-regulated organizations that are subject to supervision. However, the administrative sanctions provided by the Decree No.36/2007/NĐ-CP dated 08 March 2007 are not strict enough carrying maximum penalty of VND 70 million which does not ensure sufficient detention and prevention of breaches and violations of the Securities Law. Criteria 277 and procedures of market surveillance, especially those help identify and deal with insider trading and market manipulation, are inadequate. Adding to that, the Criminal Code 1999 provides no detailed provisions over sanctions of securities violations and breaches. This causes difficulties to enforcement activities in the securities market. Weaknesses of the existing market surveillance and compliance system: At present, the market surveillance and compliance activities are functioning under two-tier framework. The first tier includes Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HOSE), Ha Noi Securities Trading Center (HASTC), and Viet Nam Securities Depository Center. The second tier is functional departments of the SSC. Market surveillance and compliance activities of the SSC basically rely on periodical and irregular reports of the HOSE and HASTC and mostly deal with simple violations like those related to unauthorized information disclosure. Detection of sophisticated breaches and violations such as insider trading and market manipulation is limited. Market surveillance and compliance activities taken by the SSC are fragmented over various market activities and regulated entities without centralization and existence of a specialized unit for market surveillance and compliance. Inadequate human and technical resources: The application of IT in market surveillance and compliance examination is limited. In addition, shortage of human resources with necessary skills and experience makes market surveillance and compliance activities yet to be efficient. With the shortage of skilful and experienced human resources, limitation of power to enforce the market, limitation of information gathering capability and coordination with relevant executive and juridical agencies, it is a challenge for the SSC to identify the market abuses such as securities price manipulation, insider trading, and illegal business conducts due to shortage of necessary skills and procedures that lead to incapability to investigate suspicious transactions and carry out effective sanctions. External factors are those arising out of indispensible development of the securities market itself in the context of its internationalization: Rapid development of the securities market requires the SSC of the setup of a new system of market surveillance and compliance to take on the risks of wrongdoings and violations in the securities market. After ten years of establishment and development, the securities market of Viet Nam beginning with only 02 listed companies has had 368 companies listed on both HOSE and HASTC. Market capitalization reached 39.4% of GDP at the end of 2007 with over 300,000 trading accounts. That requires the SSC to build up adequate skilful human resources and a system employing advanced IT applications to address the need for surveillance of daily transactions and detection of and dealing with market abuses. Internationalization of the economy and participation of foreign investors in the securities market of Viet Nam. Viet Nam has become a new destination for foreign investors following its success in WTO accession, organizing APEC events, and impressive economic growth for years, etc. As of December 2007, there were already over 500 foreign institutional investors investing in Viet Nam with investment portfolios amounting to approximately USD 7.6 278 billion in the organized market (there could be USD 20 billion if unofficial market is included). However, gathering foreign investment information and identifying foreign participants in the securities market are yet a difficult task. Besides, Viet Nam is actively integrating itself into international and regional securities markets. International integration activities enable the market to be open to foreign investors and service suppliers, as well as cross-border securities trading and offering. That requires the securities regulator to enhance its supervisory capability, build up an adequate securities market supervision system to ensure financial stability, and set up a mechanism for information exchange and cooperation with foreign securities regulators in cross-border securities market supervision and enforcement. Inefficient market structure The existing of 2 stock exchanges in one countries that trade very much the same types of stocks with more or less similar trading mechanism has been found to be very costly for the society. Currently, a securities company if they need and willing to be a member of two exchanges should apply each separately and prepare completely different infrastructure, technical and procedure requirement by each exchange. This can be considered a double social cost for the companies which in it turns, by this way or another, will be a part of fees charging investors or customers. In the long-run, if the cost cannot be reduced, the Viet Nam securities market might be lost it competitiveness as all other markets in the world try to merge to take advantages of reducing transaction cost. The path ahead the two exchanges to develop is unclear since the organization of trading by type of securities will not find the ending since the low base of stock market development and the continuous emerging of new market instruments. Insufficient Investor Protection As stipulated by law and regulations, the SSC has a strong investor protection mission but that it lacks the necessary tools and jurisdiction to carry out this important function. To address this weakness, it is necessary to start with emend of law and regulations regarding the securities, underwriting and investment fund. There is a large unregulated securities market with potential wrongdoings and breaches. Though the SSC has been empowered by the Securities Law to regulate all public companies to protect investors, development without being regulated of the “de-facto” public companies is challenging to the supervision of securities market. “De-facto” public companies refer to companies which did not offer their shares to public to become public companies but carry out private placement or equalization. They in fact became ‘de-facto” public companies by the transfer of shares from one to another investor making the number of outside investors exceed 100. As a result, they became public companies but are not subject to requirements of information disclosure. Such companies’ shareholders do not have access to official information of the companies and are not 279 protected by the Securities Law. Transactions in grey market are not regulated by a relevant legal framework. Without audit, information disclosure, and adequate regulation it is illregulated and threatening to the social and economic stability: Unregulated private placements The lack of jurisdiction over private placements should be resolved if the recommendations above are adopted. Between now and the time that the amendments are enacted, the SSC should follow two approaches. For public companies, private placements should be allowed and disclosed immediately upon completion. For non-public companies, it appears unfortunately that the Commission’s jurisdiction is limited. This reinforces the need to enlarge the SSC’s jurisdiction to cover all offers and sales and to reform the possible exemptions. Revising the Commission’s Jurisdiction and Approach to Offers and Sales of Securities. There are two interrelated regulatory policies relating to securities offerings that are retarding the Commission’s jurisdiction over the capital formation process. First, the Commission’s jurisdiction is limited to overseeing ‘public offerings’ only, with private placements covered by the company law. Second, a company is not allowed to conduct a public offering unless it meets certain financial size and profitability criteria. In combination, these two provisions are damaging investors, issuers and the Commission itself. These adverse consequences can be easily remedied by a series of revisions to Chapter II of the Law. The registration requirements can be reversed to give the Commission jurisdiction over all offers and sales of securities, with the base premise that all offers and sales must be registered, unless there is an exemption. Then the exemptions can be restructured to include a requirement for a notification – not a request for approval – and minimum intervals established for using an exemption. These changes would result in a shift in the burden of proof with an offering presumed to need registration unless an exemption can be proved by the issuer. Also, the time limits should eliminate the rolling private placement. Further, the Commission would be aware of all of the company’s offering history. And last, there should be no significant increase in the SSC workload, due to scope of revised exemptions. Removing the minimum financial criteria to conduct a public offering will result in more disclosure earlier, either by size or the fact that there has been a registered offering. Further, several new types of securities will become possible. WTO commitments for securities services and foreign participation WTO commitments by Viet Nam for securities services There will be some exceptions for foreign participation on the following securities and securities-related operations: 280 - Trading for own account or for account of customers, whether on an exchange, in an over-the-counter market or otherwise, the following instruments: derivative products incl. futures and options; transferable securities; other negotiable instruments and financial assets, excluding bullion; - Participation in issues of all kinds of securities incl. under-writing and placement as an agent (publicly or privately), provision of services related to such issues; - Asset management, such as portfolio management, all forms of collective investment management, pension fund management, custodial depository and trust services; - Settlement and clearing services for securities, derivative products, and other securities-related instruments; - Provision and transfer of financial information, and related software by suppliers of securities services; - Advisory, intermediation and other auxiliary securities-related excluding trading for own account and brokerage, including investment and portfolio research and advice, advice on acquisitions and on corporate restructuring and strategy. - For the above operations, Viet Nam limits only the market access regarding the foreign commercial presence as follows: - Upon accession, foreign securities service suppliers shall be permitted to establish representative offices and joint ventures with Vietnamese partners in which foreign capital contribution not exceeding 49%. - After 5 years from the date of accession, securities service suppliers with 100% foreign-invested capital shall be permitted. - After 5 years from the date of accession branches of foreign securities services suppliers shall be permitted for provision and transfer of financial information, and related software; and advisory, intermediation, investment and portfolio research and advice, advice on acquisitions and on corporate restructuring and strategy. Foreign participation Under the current foreign exchange regulations, indirect investment by Vietnamese is not yet allowed. The foreign investors can participate in Viet Nam securities market under the regulation on foreign participation in the securities market. According to the WTO commitment, Viet Nam has been gradually easing the foreign participation in securities and securities market. In principle, the foreign investors (organizations or individuals) can buy or sell stocks listed in the STCs or stock exchanges through the securities companies up to a certain levels which were defined by government regulations in a period of time. Before September, 2005, the ownership (total of ownerships of all foreign investors) in the listed companies just is limited up to 30% of company owner capital, which is equivalent to the limit level stipulated to foreign participation in restructured 281 or equalized state owned enterprises and not yet listed. Since September, 2005 to June, 2009, the room for foreign investors has been expanded from 30% up to 49% of owner’ capital of all listed companies (except the commercial banks) under the Government Decision 238/2005/QD-TTg. The foreign investors want to participate into the securities market must register through a custodian bank or agent which is allowed to keep securities on behalf of the foreign investors. Moreover, the foreign securities business organizations are allowed to buy stocks of the Viet Nam securities companies and/or investment fund management companies, or contribute capital to establish securities joint venture companies with the Vietnamese counterparts. The maximum capital contribution by foreign counterparts in a joint venture does not exceed 49% of the company’s charter capital. In mid April, 2009, the Government has issued the Decision 55/2009/QD-TTg to equalize the level of listed and unlisted public companies to the same level and in an effort to get foreign investors attacked to the UPCoM market in HNX. As stipulated, foreign investors can purchase shares up to 49% of the total shares of a public joint stock company in Viet Nam’s securities market (except banking sector), 49% of the total investment fund certificates of a public securities investment fund, 49% of the charter capital of a public securities investment company. In securities companies and fund management companies in Viet Nam, only foreign securities trading organizations shall be entitled to make capital contributions and purchase shares for establishment of securities companies up to 49% of the charter capital. For fund management companies, foreign securities trading organizations and foreign insurance organizations are entitled to make capital contributions and purchase shares for establishment up to 49% of the charter capital. According to the WTO access commitments, Viet Nam will open under the roadmap for the foreign financial organizations, securities companies to participate into the securities market. The SSC is a body to help the government build the WTO integration roadmap in the securities field and the roadmap will be 5 years since Viet Nam access the WTO, the foreign securities service companies and fund management companies are allowed to establish enterprises with 100% of foreign capitals to do business in Viet Nam. The Minister of Finance (MOF) issued Decision 121/2008/QD-BTC (Decision 121) on 24 December 2008 setting forth new rules to govern activities of foreign investors in the Vietnamese stock market. The new rules apply to (i) individuals with foreign nationalities wherever residing; (ii) organizations established and operating under foreign law, and branches of such organizations whether or not operating in Viet Nam; (iii) wholly foreignowned enterprises established and operating under Vietnamese law and branches of such organizations; (iv) investment funds established and operating under foreign law or under Vietnamese law but with one hundred percent foreign-owned capital; and (v) others as may be specified by the Prime Minister. 282 With the new rules, foreign investors may directly conduct the investment in the Vietnamese stock market by (i) purchasing and selling shares, bonds and other types of securities listed on the HCMC or Ha Noi Stock Exchanges, or registered for trading at securities companies; (ii) purchasing and selling shareholding and securities not listed on the bourse or not registered for trading at securities companies; (iii) participating in auctions to purchase securities and in auctions to purchase shareholding in enterprises undergoing equalization; (iv) contributing capital to establish securities investment funds at the permitted capital contribution ratio of foreign parties as per the current laws; or (v) contributing capital to Vietnamese enterprises at the permitted capital contribution ratio of foreign parties as per the laws. In addition, foreign investors may indirectly conduct the investment by delegating management of investment capital to a fund management company as per an investment management contract entered into by two parties. Pursuant to the previous rules, only foreign investors investing in listed securities market were required to obtain a securities trading code (ST Code) from the Viet Nam Securities Depository (VSD). Under Decision 121, this requirement is expanded. Particularly, each foreign investor except those whose investment is solely made through a fund management company is required to obtain an ST Code. Decision 121 also requires foreign investors to notify the VSD for changes in banks where they have opened their indirect investment capital account; their head-office addresses, locations of business registration, or contact addresses; their names or passport numbers; their legal status or organizational structure due to division, separation, merger, acquisition or other changes related to companies' reorganization; or any contents of the dossier submitted to apply for the ST Code. Especially, in respect of changes by a foreign investor in the depository member, trading representative or Securities Company where such foreign investor opens its trading account, each of such changes is required to obtain a prior approval from the VSD. Under the new rules, each foreign investor shall be permitted to open only one indirect investment capital account denominated in Vietnamese dong with a depository bank licensed to conduct foreign exchange business. All transactions by the foreign investor must be made through this account. After obtaining a ST Code, the foreign investor shall be permitted to open a unique securities depository account via which all payments shall be made. In the event that a foreign investor is a securities company established under foreign law or a 100-per-cent foreign-owned insurer, the investor may be permitted to open two securities depository accounts in accordance with regulations on securities registration, depository, clearance and settlement issued by the MOF. 2.6 Foundation for sustainable development of secur ities ser vice in Viet Nam Main drivers or foundation to develop a sustainable securities market in Viet Nam includes: Strong demand for capital mobilization for long-run economic development potential 283 According to WB, the medium-term outlook of Viet Nam economy is still favorable. Viet Nam remains an attractive destination for foreign investors. Provided that the government maintains sound macroeconomic policies and continues reforms to enhance Viet Nam’s competitiveness, real GDP growth is expected to rise to 7½ percent by 2013. The current account deficit is projected to narrow to about 5 percent of GDP by 2013, as export growth and private remittances are likely to rebound. Capital inflows are also expected to pick up as investor confidence recovers. To serve the capital need for development, the securities market will become an important channel to raise medium to long term capital through the issuance of bonds or stocks given that the funding from banking system are still not sufficient to support the economy growth. The market opening under WTO commitment Viet Nam is a transitional country that is gradually opening to outside influences. Its successful application to join the World Trade Organisation has driven change in all sectors of society as it has brought its social and legislative framework more into line with international models to facilitate international transactions. As the fully open of securities services and securities market for foreign participation by 2011, the foreign inflows will come to the country to take advantages of highly growing securities market. Foreign securities companies will be allowed to set up 100% foreign owned securities companies in Viet Nam and foreign investors will be able to hold up to 100% of the total shares of listed companies in Viet Nam in the sectors that are not “sensitive” and restricted by the government. The determination by Government to strengthen the role of securities market as a vital channel for raising capital in balancing with banking system Being different with the most countries at the beginning of stock market development, the government was the one who set up a “regulated” stock market for companies and investors to joint. More importantly, the government then takes the part to underpin the market development by using its resources. A long with the existence of a viable stock market in Viet Nam, the government perception about the role and benefits of a stock market to the economy become increasingly high. The stock market development is now a key element underneath economic growth. The strong supports and determinations by government to develop the securities market in Viet Nam will be crucial for the long term development of the market. The increasingly high perception by public about securities and securities market As common practices for many developing countries, cash transaction and holding money is still popular in Viet Nam. The better perception of public market confidence will enable them to invest in securities market. The role of government then is to proliferate the basic knowledge on securities and securities market. The full disclosure of information in the market will help to maintain the investor’s confidence. The application of the latest IT technology on securities market 284 The application of new technology will allow the securities service providers to reduce transaction cost and increase market competitiveness for investors. In the future, the two exchanges are planned to build new and more advanced systems including trading system, disclosure system, and surveillance system. The system for securities registrations, depository and settlement will also be renovated to support for the expansion and development of the market. Securities companies and other securities service providers will have a chance to improve its technology and service quality to meet the increasingly high demand from local and international customers. 2.7 Recommendations to develop and impr ove the efficiency of the Viet Nam secur ities mar ket According to the Prime Minister’s Decision 128 on Securities Market Development to 2010 and Vision to 2020. The stock market in Viet Nam has shown phenomenal development during the past year. The number of companies listed in the stock market increased to 220 while the market capitalization reached 40% of GDP which far surpassed the Government’s original target of 15% by 2010. The growth trend is expected to continue, driven by the implementation of equalization of major state-owned enterprises (SOEs) starting this year. The PM Decision 128 now provides renewed targets to achieve the stock market capitalization of 50% of GPD by 2010 and 75% by 2020. The main development objectives of the Viet Nam securities market for 2010 onward includes: - Expanding the regulated or organized securities market; narrowing informal markets; - Improving transparency of the stock market; applying the best practices on corporate governance for the public companies and securities business agencies. - Expanding scales and capacities of the securities business and service agencies to ensure the system stability for the securities market. - Opening the securities service market under the committed roadmap for integration; gradually applying the recommended principles on securities market regulations by the International Organization of Securitises Committees (IOSCO) which are consistent with certain development period of the market. The suggested measures to achieve the above objectives will be as follows: Macro measures: The aims are to stabilize the political and economic environment to promote the public’s investments and savings; to build the coordination mechanism at inter-ministerial level to ensure the financial sector stability. The Government therefore should: Firstly, play a role as a person to direct information and lead the market. The government should not use administrative measures to interfere into the securities market, but should 285 provide to the public timely and objective information through the media to adjust the securities market’s behaviors. Secondly, adjust the market by relevant tools. One function of the State Capital Investment Corporation to mobilize domestic and foreign capital sources in order to supplement business capital through issuance of corporate bonds or project bonds, or setting up of investment trust funds can be used as a tool to interfere into the securities market. Thirdly, guarantee safety for the whole system which requires the close coordination between ministries. The development of the securities market always relates closely with the other parts of the financial market, especially the banking system. Therefore, it’s necessary to tie the measures to make sure safety for the entire banking system. Fourthly, development and implement the derivative tools on securities. These derivative tools include: options, swap and futures. However, the development of these tools requires the support of the advanced and modern technology. In the development condition for the Viet Nam securities market at present, applying gradually the derivative tools are possible and relevant. Micro measures The aims is for building a complete legal framework with full and clear legal documents to regulate the securities market’s activities ; providing an effective transaction mechanism through the arrangements and operations of the Securities Exchange; establishing some organizations to support the market development. •Restructuring the securities exchange market - - Improving the capacity of HCMC and Hanoi stock exchanges by restructuring their organization in the most proper and efficient manner to reduce transaction cost and make a better supervision and compliance enforcement; transforming stock exchanges into self-regulated organization. - Completing the organizational setting and operations of the Hanoi stock exchange towards the model of OTC market. - Guiding, operating and monitoring the unlisted public company’s securities trading. - Building and completing the bond trading market structure, especially the government bonds. • Innovating and Enhancing the securities market infrastructure - Renovating system of the stock exchanges and VSD in order to minimize the transaction cost and improving the market efficiency. - Building and guiding to implement the IT standards applied for the stock business and service, making sure to provide service and transparent information on the securities market to all investors. 286 - Completing the building of concentrated data centers serving the market management; computerizing the exchange and update data. Applying IT technology in the market supervising and monitoring. • Developing commodities for the securities market - Completing the legal framework and policies to make sure the State manages united the offering stocks to the public and the public companies; applying the corporate governance rules to the public companies. - In conjunction with the SOE reform, building and implementing the plan to link the equalization of SOEs with the listing in the securities market; transferring the foreign capital enterprises into the joint stock companies and listing in the securities market; selling the stocks which the State does not need to hold in the listed companies according to the List of sectors and areas regulated by the government. - Improving the way to issues government bonds in the direction of increasing the tender shares. Completing the legal framework, selecting and guiding the local governments, big enterprises to issue bonds for capital investment mobilization. - Developing other goods in the securities market including bond derivatives, real estate investment trust certificates (REITs). • Developing the stock business and service providers. Promulgating regulations to build legal base for the stock companies to restructure in the direction of increasing capital scale, developing of human resources, expanding the scale and network to provide stock services. Building and developing the system of the market founders; system of the professional bond business traders. Expanding the professional scale and scale of the fund management companies; the fund management companies implement the functions of managing investment lists and funds. Promoting the commercial to establish fund management companies; diversifying the collective investment types. Applying corporate governance according to the best practice to the stock business, service organizations; making standards the internal control, risk management and working process; implementing the Rule of professional moral on stock business. • Developing the supporting organizations - For the depository center: Improving the VSD capacity by modernizing the system to meeting the market demand for registering, depository, clearing and settlement for all stock traded in stock exchanges. 287 - For the deposit members: Developing the deposit member network (securities companies, custodian banks) to provide custodian service, safe keeping and stakeholder’s right implementation. • Developing investor base - Developing the professional stock investment organizations, promoting these organizations to establish fund management companies and stock investment funds, increasing the investment shares into securities market of these organizations. - Disseminating knowledge on stocks and securities market to the public, improving the public’s understandings on the roles, interests, risks of the investment type through stock investment funds. • International integration on the securities market - Preparing and carrying out the program on common ASEAN capital market integration. - Implementing to open the service securities market under the committed roadmap at the bilateral and multilateral agreements. - Implementing rights and obligations of the IOSCO’s member; signing the Memory of Understanding on the bilateral cooperation with the Securities Committees in the regions; signing Memory of Understanding on the multilateral cooperation with the IOSCO. • State management on the securities market - Drafting law revision and regulations if necessary to enable the smooth the market operations and minimize difficulties for market participants. - Improving the capacity for making policy, strengthening the effectiveness of the monitoring and auditing works and law violations treatments on the stocks and securities market; perfecting and applying the standards to assess the effectiveness of the stock companies, fund management companies, warning the unusual transactions in the securities market. - Improving and ensuring the transparency, openness and equity of the securities market’s activities based on the completion and implementation the rules of information announcement, corporate governance for the public companies. - Applying the securities market management principles under the recommendations of IOSCO on the areas: management of issuing stocks, collective investment funds, immediate market organizations, secondary markets. Box: Three most important recommendations for securities sector development Revisions of the Law on securities and current regulations in order to facilitate 288 the listing, information disclosure, securities trading and clearing and settlement and in line with international practises. Restructuring the two exchanges by defining the different traded products but sharing the same infrastructure. Capacity building for SSC as a regulator and supervisor of securities market in terms of human resource and computerised system to meet the demand for maintaining a fair, transparent and efficient market. 289 CHAPTER 3: BANKING SERVICES Current State and Development Issues of the Banking Sector in Viet Nam 3.1 Over view of r efor m pr ocess in banking sector During the past two decades, the banking sector of Viet Nam has undertaken significant changes in line with the country's reform and international integration process. In the late 1980s, the mono-banking system, in which the State Bank of Viet Nam (SBV) performed both central and commercial banking functions, was transformed into a two-tier banking system with the creation of the four state-owned commercial banks (SOCBs). The enactment of the two Banking Ordinances in 1990 provided legal foundation for further reform efforts in the following years, which resulted in the establishment of joint stock commercial banks (JSBs), foreign bank branches and representative offices, and joint venture banks (JVBs). These Banking Ordinances were upgraded in 1997 into the Banking Laws, with subsequent revisions in 2003 and 2004 to incorporate more market-based rules and regulations for banking operations and management. By the end of the 1990s, internal governance weakness coupled with the impact of the Asian financial crisis led to the emergence of non-performing loans (NPLs) problem in the banking sector. As at the end of 2000, NPLs accounted for a large portion in the total credit outstanding of banks, exerting adverse impact on the performance and soundness of the banking sector and the overall economy. To deal with this situation, the Government began the process of NPLs workout and restructuring of the commercial banks. Poorly performed JSBs were either merged, dissolved or consolidated after being put under special control. As a result, the number of JSBs reduced from over 50 to about 36 after several years. At the same time, SOCBs were also reformed by recapitalization and improving governance. Policy lending was separated from commercial lending with the establishment of Viet Nam Bank for the Poor, which then became Viet Nam Bank for Social Policy (VBSP). The conclusion of US - Viet Nam Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) in 2001 and later accession to WTO in 2007 brought Viet Nam to a new stage of international integration. Under this framework, Viet Nam committed to open the domestic market to 100% foreign owned bank subsidiaries and gradually eliminate restrictions on the operation of foreign bank branches. To cope with this increased competition pressure, another phase of reform was introduced to the domestic banking sector, dated back to mid-2005 when the decision to restructure and equitize the SOCBs was made. The capital of banks was also raised under new regulation on minimum capital requirements issued by the Government. The new Banking Laws, which are being drafted and to be adopted by the National Assembly in 2010, are expected to pave the way for further sustainable development of the banking system. 290 3.2 Impor tance and str uctur e of banking ser vice sector In line with the country's transition from a centrally-planning to a market economy, the financial sector has experienced rapid liberalization and development. Beside the longtradition banking sector, stock and bond markets have emerged in recent years yet remain small. Stock market capitalization increased from 2% of GDP in 2003 to 15% as at the end of 2008 after surging to 43% in 2007 due to a market bubble. Bond market is of similar size, with total outstanding bonds accounted for 15% of GDP in 2008 (See Table 1.1 below). The rapid expansion of stock market during the past three years, although reflected efforts of the Government in improving market framework and developing market instruments, was much driven by an inflow of portfolio investment and speculative factor, thus limiting the role of this market as a channel of fund raising for the economy. So far, the financial sector is still dominated by banks with total banking assets making up nearly 140% of GDP. Loans and deposits as a percentage of GDP both had went up significantly to 93% and 92% as at end-2008, respectively. Thus, the banking sector has supplied the major source of domestic financing for growth in the past years. Table 1.1. Financial Markets in Viet Nam (Percentage of GDP) 2004 Loans as % of GDP 61 Deposits as % of GDP 60 Share market (total capitalization) 3.50 Out standing bonds as percentage 8.4 of GDP Insurance premium (both life and 2.00 non-life) Pension funds 4.12 2005 70 67 5.55 8.2 2006 75 78 22.61 8.1 2007 93 99 43.38 13.7 2008 93 92 15 15.1 1.63 1.54 1.44 n/a 4.04 3.7 n/a n/a Source: Suiwah Leung, Banking and Financial Sector Reform in Viet Nam, ASEAN Economic Bulletin Vol.26, No1 (April 2009) After the promulgation of the two Banking Laws in 1997, the number and types of banks and non-bank credit institutions have increased rapidly. Currently, Viet Nam's banking sector comprises 5 SOCBs 52, 36 JSBs, 45 foreign bank branches, 55 foreign bank representative offices, and 5 joint venture banks. In 2008, 5 100% foreign-owned bank subsidiaries have been licensed but they have not yet officially been in operation 53. Non-bank credit institutions include 2 policy banks, 17 finance companies, 13 financial leasing companies, the Central's 52 The Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (Vietcombank) and Vietnam Bank for Industry and Commerce (Vietinbank) has been equitized, with the State retaining a controlling stake of more than 90%. For the purpose of this report, Vietcombank and Vietinbank are grouped under the SOCBs. 53 5 100% foreign-owned bank subsidiaries include ANZ (Vietnam) Ltd, HSBC (Vietnam) Ltd, Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Ltd, Shinhan Vietnam Bank Ltd and Hong Leong Bank Vietnam Ltd. 291 Credit Fund and 1019 local People's Credit Funds 54. Though abundant in number, Vietnamese banks are still of small size compared with regional peers. Table 1.2. Number of Credit Institutions Type of Credit Institutions State-owned Commercial Banks Joint Stock Commercial Banks Foreign Bank Branches 100% foreign-owned bank subsidiary Joint Venture Banks Policy Banks Finance Company Leasing company People‘s Credit Fund 1997 05 51 23 0 05 0 2 3 939 2006 05 36 34 0 05 2 7 11 938 2007 05 34 41 0 05 2 7 12 986 2008 05 40 45 05 05 2 17 13 1019 Source: SBV, 2009, Report No. 49/BC-NHNN on reviewing the ten-yearimplementation of the Law on credits Institutions As of 31 Dec. 2008, total chartered capital of CIs (excluding that of Bao Viet JSB and 5 foreign bank subsidiaries) reached VND 149,179.8 trillion, as high as 12 times of the figure in 1997. In which, SOCBs increased 26.04 times, JSBs 40.43 times, JVB 6.72 times, foreign bank branches 3.03 times, finance companies 349 times, financial leasing companies 6.42 times, and PCFs system 5.06 times. This increase is indicative of the strengthened financial capacity of CIs as well as interest of the state, domestic and foreign individuals and organizations in investment to the banking sector. Size of total assets, deposits and loans by CIs as of Dec. 2008 had a significant growth in the last decade. Specifically, in comparison with the year 1997 total assets increased by 16.21 times, deposits went up by 15.72 times and loans increased by 13.6 times. Table 1.3. Share of total asset by type of institutions (%) Type of Credit Institutions State-owned Commercial Banks Joint Stock Commercial Banks Foreign Bank Branches Joint Venture Banks Finance Company Leasing company People‘s Credit Fund 1997 66.57 11.86 16.6 3.48 0.21 0.12 0.14 2006 62.3 22.8 9.8 1.1 2.1 0.8 1.1 2007 53.3 31.5 9.6 1.2 3.4 0.7 0.64 2008 51.48 32.45 10.26 1.25 3.1 0.97 0.86 Source: SBV, 2009, Report No. 49/BC-NHNN on reviewing the ten-yearimplementation of the Law on credits Institutions 54 SBV, 2009, Report No. 49/BC-NHNN on reviewing the ten-year-implementation of the Law on credits Institutions. 292 The State-owned Commercial Banks continues to play a vital role in the banking system, despite their gradual decline in market share during recent years. JSBs made a big gain in terms of market share at the loss of SOCBs. As a result of market opening commitments, foreign banks have increased their share in recent years. Table 1.4. Share of deposit by type of institutions (%) Type of Credit Institutions 1997 2006 2007 State-owned Commercial Banks 69.4 65.1 53.4 Joint Stock Commercial Banks 10.6 21.3 31.5 Foreign Bank Branches 15.93 9.6 9.9 Joint Venture Banks 3.08 1.1 1.2 Finance Company 0.17 1.2 1.7 Leasing company 0.02 0.8 0.7 People‘s Credit Fund 0.76 0.9 0.72 Source: SBV, 2009, Report No. 49/BC-NHNN on reviewing the implementation of the Law on credits Institutions 2008 56.91 31.23 13.22 1.43 3.13 1.15 0.92 ten-year- 3.3 Cur r ent level of development 3.3.1. Definition of banking services: So far, there has not been a uniform definition of banking service; neither is there a clear demarcation between banking service and other financial services. Thus, WTO grouped banking and other financial services under a category of financial services. The current Law on Credit Institutions does not provide a definition of banking services, but identify credit institutions as engaged in "monetary business and banking services", therefore may induce a narrower concept of banking services. For the purpose of this report, banking services include all such supplied by the banks to the market in order to meet the demand of customers, including all type of fund raising, credit extension, payment services, forex services... 3.3.2. Overall context of development: Viet Nam has been able to maintain high growth and stable macroeconomic conditions for a long period of time since Doi Moi. As population's income and living standards were raised and business activities expanded, the demand for banking services also increased. The Government's efforts in improving environment for banking operations create more favourable conditions for diversifying and raising quality of bank services. In the context of international integration, the banking sector is under greater competition pressure. All this led to the growth of traditional banking services and introduction of more modern banking services such as e-banking, internet banking, mobile banking, ATM etc. As mentioned above, the banking sector in Viet Nam has grown rapidly in terms of number of banks and network expansion during the past years. However, the penetration ratio is still low. In 2007, there were 8.2 million bank accounts serving the total population of around 84 293 million, equivalent to a penetration rate of 10%. Five million of such accounts are held by individuals. It is estimated that less than 10% of the population use bank services regularly 55. Fund raising Fund raising by credit institutions had high growth in recent years and provided a main source of finance to the economy. In the last five years, annual growth of deposits was on an increasing trend. Products diversification and the development of branch network have contributed positively to this growth. Table 1.5. Deposit Growth Year Deposit/GDP (%) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 60 67 78 99 92 Deposit Growth (compared with previous year - %) n/a 32.08 36.53 47.64 22.87 Source: SBV Annual Report 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 SOCBs still take up the major share of deposits thanks to their large branch network and longstanding reputation. In 2008, 56.06% of total deposits in the system were held by the SOCBs (plus VBSP). As restrictions on foreign bank's deposit taking were gradually liberalized in accordance with WTO commitment, their share has increased from 9.6% in 2006 to 13.22% in 2008. The JSBs had rapid growth in recent years and increased their market share from 21.3% in 2006 to 31.23% in 2008. These developments led to the considerable contraction of SOCBs' share from 65.1% in 2006 to 56.91% in 2008 56. Lending Lending has experienced high growth during the last decade, even overheated in 2007 and first half of 2008. JSBs lending share expanded quickly, while SOCBs share declined. Table 1.6. Share of credit by type of institutions (%) Type of Credit Institutions State-owned Commercial Banks Joint Stock Commercial Banks Foreign Bank Branches Joint Venture Banks Finance Company Leasing company 55 1997 64 11.76 19.85 2.39 0.22 0.03 2006 67.1 19.6 8.3 1.39 1 1.3 2007 59.7 27.5 8.56 1.2 2.3 1.1 2008 58.2 26.54 10.27 1.3 1.92 1.19 IFC, 2008, Vietnam Financial Sector Diagnostics 56 SBV, 2009, Report No. 49/BC-NHNN on reviewing the ten-year-implementation of the Law on credits Institutions 294 People‘s Credit Fund 1.69 1.5 1.06 1.1 Source: SBV, 2009, Report No. 49/BC-NHNN on reviewing the ten-yearimplementation of the Law on credits Institutions Lending by economic sectors did not have much change over the years. Of the total lending extended by the banking sector, agriculture, fishery and forestry occupies the largest part, ranging around nearly 30% and reached 28.84 % in 2008. Next is industry, which accounts for 25.81%, trade 18.67% and construction 13.76% in 2008, respectively. Table 1.7. Lending by economic sectors (% of total lending) Agriculture, Fishery, Forestry Industry Trade Construction 2008 28.84 25.81 18.67 13.76 2007 28.92 26.02 18.24 14.15 2006 29.20 25.5 17.7 14.5 Source: SBV Annual Report 2006, 2007, 2008 Payment service During the last decade payment service had significant developments. Commercial banks continuously introduced new payment services, meeting diverse demand of users and expand access by individuals and households. - Ratio of cash over total liquidity has been on declining trend, dropping from 20.3% in 2004 to 14.60% in 2008. Though cash payment ratio reduced from 20% in 2004 to 18% in 2006 57, cash continues to be the main payment method. - The Interbank Electronic Payment System came into operation in 2002, was expanded from five provinces and cities in Phase 1 to 63 provinces and cities in Phase 2 as part of the implementation of the project of modernizing the banking payment system, and expected to have 1500 members by the end of 2008. In 2008, the system processed more than 7.7 million transactions with total value of over 11 thousand trillion VND. The development of this system is of significant importance in upgrading infrastructure for the proliferation of payment services. - Individual bank accounts have expanded fastly at an average annual growth rate of 150% in terms of account number and 120% in terms of balances. The number of individual accounts increased from 135,000 in 2000 to around 5 million in 2005 and more than 8 million in 2007. - The development of modern banking services during past time has been positively supported by information technology. Of which, bank card has had strongest growth. As of April 2009, there were over 16 million bank cards being issued by 41 issuing institutions, the majority of which was debit card (98.16%) and a small portion (1.8%) was credit card. 57 IFC, 2008, Financial Sector Diagnostic. 295 Commercial banks have installed more than 8,000 ATMs with over 27,000 POS (point of sale). Under the SBV’s direction, two biggest card unions, Banknetvn and Smartlink, accounting for more than 80% of the Vietnamese plastic card market, had connected their ATM systems, allowing customers to do card transactions more easily 58. Inter-bank foreign exchange market While complicated developments happened to supplies and demands of the foreign exchange market in 2008, the inter-bank foreign exchange market remained active with widened scale and larger transaction volume. Inter-bank transaction volume increased by about 25% as compared to that of 2007. Spot transactions increased by 26%, and forward and swap transactions increased by 13%. Commercial banks conducted much more transactions in this market to hedge themselves against foreign exchange risks. In 2008, 79 banks participated in the inter-bank foreign exchange market, an increase of 14 participants in comparison with 2007. These new players participated actively, making the market even more dynamic. 3.4 Development issues 3.4.1. Legal and regulatory framework for banking service has been developed in a relatively uniform manner, yet there are still shortcomings which adversely affect the sector growth. During the past years, the legal framework for banking sector has been gradually improved. An initial milestone was 1990 when the two Banking Ordinances were introduced, creating a legal basis for the transformation into a two-tier banking system. Subsequently, in 1997 the Law on the State Bank of Viet Nam and the Law on Credit Institutions were promulgated and came into force in October 1998. These two laws have created a more level playing field for credit institutions, thereby contributing to the stability and economic development. The Law on the State Bank of Viet Nam and the Law on Credit Institutions are the most important legal documents which form foundation for banking operations in Viet Nam. Based on the provisions of the two Laws, the Government and the State Bank of Viet Nam issued a number of Decrees, Decisions, and Circulars guiding on the Laws implementation. These legal documents form a relatively comprehensive legal framework governing both the organization and operation of credit institutions in Viet Nam and create a legal basis for credit institutions to operate in a more dynamic environment. The Laws were revised in the years 2003 and 2004 in order to meet the requirements of international integration, administration reform, the national cause of industrialization and modernization, and to improve effectiveness of monetary-banking activities. Amendments were made so as to deal with the shortfall in banking services, improve the quality of operation, governance and encourage autonomy of credit institutions. Nevertheless, the fast development of banking service market and the need to implement international commitments on banking have revealed shortcomings in the legal framework for banking 58 SBV, 2009, reports at Banking Vietnam 2009, May 28-29th 2009 296 operation, which could not well respond to realities and thus impede the further advancement of banking services, particularly the modern and new ones. Fundamental provisions of the legal framework governing banking services Licensing mechanism The management and licensing mechanism for banking services does not match with practical conditions. The SBV is in charge of issuing establishment and operation license to credit institutions and banking operation license to other institutions. Conditions for licensing the establishment and operation are related to legal capital requirement, qualifications of founding members, qualifications of the management, charter and feasibility of business plan. However, after more than 10 years implementing the Law on Credit Institutions, the licensing of new banks was only done in practice following Decision 24/2007/QD-NHNN by the State Bank of Viet Nam, which spells out more specifically the licensing conditions 59. So far, the SBV has only granted establishment and operation license to 3 new commercial banks in Viet Nam 60 in Viet Nam. Current there are two channels through which the SBV regulates and licenses the provision of banking services by CIs: (i) Stipulation in the Establishment and Operation License on the type of services that a CI is permitted to supply; and (ii) Permission on the supply of specific banking service spelt out in particular Regulation on banking operations (such as Regulation on Factoring operation, Regulation on Money Brokerage etc). In fact, this mechanism does not respond to the operational dynamism of CIs and regulatory requirement of the SBV, as shown in the non-updatability of the License to the specific Operational Regulation issued after the License has been granted. This leads to the situation where CIs are allowed to engage in operations not listed in the License and therefore undermining the legal power of the License. In addition, the current mechanism requires CIs to obtain permission from the SBV when they wish to supply new banking service on a case by case basis. The prolonged licensing process may make CIs miss their business opportunity and reduce their competitiveness. Mechanism regulating new banking services The banking legal framework lacks legal basis for the provision of new services by CIs and management and supervision by the SBV. The Law on CIs specifies CIs scope of operation based on their type of operation. Accordingly, banks can provide all forms of banking services while non-bank CIs are subject to more limited operation, being not allowed to take demand deposits, deposits with less than 1 year term, and provide payment services. The Law also emphasizes on autonomy of CIs in making lending decision and bearing responsibility on their decision. However, the operational scope of CIs is not clearly defined in the Law on CIs and implementing guidelines. CIs can only provide new services after obtaining permission from the SBV on a Similarly, the SBV issued Decision 40/2007/QĐ-NHNN stipulating specific licensing criteria for non-bank credit institutions. 60 Including Lien Viet JSB, Tien Phong JSB, and Bao Viet JSB. 59 297 case by case basis, except for a few operations such as interest rate and foreign exchange swaps. This mechanism limits the ability of CIs to diversify their services. In the context of rapid developments in the banking industry and international integration, Viet Nam has committed to permit foreign banks to supply a number of new banking services. The Vietnamese CIs have also been introducing various new banking services such as ATM, ebanking (internet banking, mobile banking...), derivatives (futures, option, swap, swaption...). Despite the numerous legal documents that have been issued, the banking legal framework does not match up the dynamic and fast market development. A number of "gaps" have come out; one example is the lack of laws on new type and new supply mode of services. This situation not only hampers business operation of CIs but also affect regulatory activity of the SBV, i.e. the SBV does not have legal basis to conduct supervision and inspection. To some extent, this shortfall in legal framework also affect the accomplishment of Viet Nam's obligation on policy transparency set out in the bilateral and multilateral trade agreements (such as BTA, AFAS, WTO). Mechanism regulating mode of supplying new services The legal framework on banking services lacks provisions governing several modes of supply, including cross border, consumption abroad and personal presence. The current laws mostly govern the provision of banking services through commercial presence. With the advancement of information technology, the supply of service in general and banking service in particular through Internet has become popular. Through the Internet, foreign suppliers can provide banking services to Vietnamese clients and vice versus, Vietnamese suppliers can also provide banking services to clients abroad without having to establish commercial presence. So long as regulations on these new supply modes are missing, the SBV can hardly perform well its supervisory role. If the aforementioned shortcomings are not addressed timely, banking service development and competitiveness of Vietnamese CIs will be adversely affected. Internal audit and control mechanism The Law on CIs and guidelines of the SBV require CIs to establish: (i) internal examination and control system under the management to assist the Management Board in getting control of all operations by the CI; (ii) internal audit unit under the Board of Controllers to conduct internal audits to all operations by the CI. In practice, CIs have not strictly complied with these requirements, therefore reducing governance and competitiveness of the CI itself. Prudential and risk-provisioning regulations The Law on CIs and guidelines of the SBV spell out restrictions in order to safeguard banking soundness, including subjects not allowed to extend credit to, restrictions on credit extension, limits on credit extension, ratios for capital contribution and share purchase, capital adequacy ratio, liquidity ratio, ratio of short-term funds usable for long-term financing, and ratio of investment in fixed assets. These ratios have been developed based on Basel I. Yet specific contents of several ratios are inconsistent with international practices, 298 for instance, market and operational risks are not accounted for in the risk provisioning mechanism. The SBV has recently commenced drafting a new regulation on prudential ratios which is more in tandem with Basel Committee stipulations. CIs set aside provisions for the risks in banking operation and classify assets, identify the amount and methodology of risk provisioning, and use provisions in accordance with the SBV Governor's regulations. However, compared with international standards CIs' risk provisioning practice does not include market risks. Despite guiding regulations issued by the SBV, most CIs do not classify debts basing on "qualitative method" since the Regulation on internal credit rating is not yet in place. Cap on interest rate The SBV started the negotiable interest rate mechanism in VND commercial lending by CIs in 2002. The base rate announced by the SBV monthly only serves as a direction for commercial rates decided by CIs. This was a breakthrough in the conduct of monetary policy based on market rules, which encouraged CIs to expand operational network to raise funds and lend at suitable interest rates in line with market demand and supply of capital. Also, it enhanced business autonomy and competitiveness of CIs. To address instability of the money market and put a halt on interest rate racing by CIs, the SBV returned to interest rate cap mechanism in which all fund raising and lending interest rates including those applicable to monetary market operations must not exceed 150% the base rate. The interest rate cap was instrumental in stabilizing money market conditions. Nevertheless, as the market activities became stable and general level of interest rate on monetary market declined, this cap seems no longer justifiable and distorts market demandsupply forces. In a recent move, the SBV started a step by step removal of the interest rate cap mechanism applicable to consumer loans 61. Foreign exchange management mechanism Since 1999, the SBV took a fundamental reform step in exchange rate management, moving from administrative management to management based on market rules with regulatory role of the state. In stead of announcing the official exchange rate, the SBV announced the average interbank rate and commercial banks were allowed to set their exchange rates within a band of ±0.1% around the SBV's announced rate. In July 2002, the band was relaxed to ±0.25% and after several adjustments, increased to ±5% since March 2009. The SBV gradually reformed forex management policy towards liberalization and facilitating the attraction of foreign investment. Especially, the SBV continuously reduced foreign exchange surrender ratio from 80-100% in 1998 to 0% in 2003. Regulations on opening foreign currency account, bringing foreign currency in and out country were relaxed gradually. Policy on the management of enterprise's foreign borrowings and repayments and related polices became more flexible and streamlined, thereby enhancing autonomy and 61 Circular 02/2009/TT-NHNN 299 accountability of enterprises and credit institutions. A milestone in the foreign exchange mechanism was the promulgation of Ordinance on Foreign Exchange Management. Accordingly, Viet Nam liberalized current account transactions and loosened capital transaction control, thus fully accepted obligation of Article VIII of the International Monetary Fund's Charter. However, the recent problems of forex demand and supply in the market could be attributed partially to shortcomings in the regulatory mechanism and dollarization of the economy. Policy and regulatory mechanism on payment service During the past time, the Government and SBV have step by step improved legal basis for payment service via banks and non-cash payment. A series of legal documents on payment activities have been developed, including: Decree on payment activities via payment service suppliers, Decree on payment in cash, Law on negotiable instruments, Regulation on the issuance and use of cheques, Regulation on payment activity via payment service suppliers, Regulation on interbank electronic payment. These legal provisions facilitated both banks and customers in using non-cash instruments via banks. Notably, in 2006 the Prime Minister approved the Plan on non-cash payment for the period 2006-2010 and vision towards 2020 in Viet Nam. Money market The SBV step by step developed legal framework for the functioning of money market to meet practical demand and consistent with international practices. The SBV's regulation on operation of interbank market in accordance with international practices dated back to 2001. To further facilitate the money market, the SBV issued regulations on money brokerage and money market instruments, including hedging instruments. The SBV has also promulgated regulations on money market operations between the SBV and CIs such as open market operations, discount, rediscount, secured lending with valuable papers as mortgages; regulations on treasury bill and bond auction through SBV, and regulations on valuable paper depository. 3.4.2. Competitiveness Issues in the Banking Sector Higher competition is an advantage for users of banking service and brings about positive benefits to economic growth since it: (i) Lower financial service unit cost (not necessarily the total expenditures on financial services); (ii) For enterprises, enabling them to reduce cost and/or risks in managing business financing accounts; (iii) Facilitate savings by households because of better access; and (iv) Ensure higher security for future access to funding, therefore reduce the need for prudential savings. The competition in banking sector shall be examined in the following aspects: competitiveness of the country according to Global Competitiveness Report, competitiveness of banking sector vis-à-vis other financial services, competition in the banking sector and competitiveness of individual CI. Competitiveness of the banking sector in comparison with other countries 300 The banking sector has been developing in the general context of low competitiveness of the whole economy. Global Competitiveness Report 2008-2009 of the World Economic Forum assess that during the period Viet Nam is ranked 70/134 with the average score of 4.1 (compared with the rank of 69/131, 64/122, and the score of 4.0, 4.1 in 2007-2008 and 20062007 respectively). Viet Nam is in the first of the three stages of development. Further, the Report assesses in general the country suffers from burdensome government regulation and weak auditing and reporting standards, where it is ranked 105th and 106th, respectively. Educational system (ranked 120th) is also a weak area which needs urgent attention. Financial market development is also at an early staged, being ranked at 106/134. On financial development indicator, Financial Development Report 2008 of WEF ranked Viet Nam at 49 out of 52 countries assessed. The report also showed that several indicators of Viet Nam have high competitive ranking, comprising financial stability indicator, indicator on the size and efficiency of the banking sector. Yet most of the remaining indicators are less competitive than other assessed countries. 301 Table 1.8. Financial Development Index 2008 of selected countries Country USA Japan Singapore Malaysia China Thailand Indonesia Philippine Viet Nam Rank 2008 (out of 52) 1 4 10 20 24 29 38 48 49 Score (1-7) 5.85 5.28 5.15 4.48 4.09 3.82 3.31 3.0 3.0 Source: WEF, 2009, Financial Development Report Table 1.9. Viet Nam Financial Development Index 2008 (selected data) Index 2008 3rd pillar: Financial stability Risk of a currency crisis 3.01 Change in real effective exchange rate 3.02 External vulnerability indicator 3.03 Current account balance to GDP 3.04 Dollarization vulnerability indicator 3.05A External debt to GDP (developing economies) 3.05B Net int’l investment position to GDP (adv. Economies) Risk of systemic banking crisis 3.11 Frequency of banking crises Risk of sovereign debt crisis 3.14 Local currency sovereign rating 3.15 Foreign currency sovereign rating 4th pillar: Banks Size index 4.01 Size index Efficiency index 4.02 Efficiency index 4.03 Public ownership of banks Financial information disclosure 4.04 Public credit registry coverage 4.05 Private credit bureau coverage 4.06 Credit Information Index Rank (out of 52) 49 Score 3.0 14 25 30 34 18 -0.8 30.4 0.7 70.0 34.6 n/a n/a 12 1.0 45 43 9.5 8.5 24 6.2 21 n/a 5.2 n/a 13 42 45 9.2 0.0 3.0 302 Table 1.9. Viet Nam Financial Development Index 2008 (selected data) Continued 7th pillar: Size, depth, and access Size and depth 7.01 M2 to GDP 7.02 Private debt to GDP 7.03 Public debt to GDP 7.04 Bank deposits to GDP 7.05 Stock market capitalization to GDP 7.06 Relative value-added of financial institutions to GDP 7.07 Private credit to GDP 7.08 Stock market value traded to GDP Access 7.09 Financial market sophistication 7.10 Venture capital availability 7.11 Ease of access to credit 7.12 Ease of access to local equity market 7.13 Bank branches 7.14 Ease of access to loans Rank (out of 52) Score 16 68.7 22 24 48 44 5.0 61.9 7.2 1.2 27 n/a 58.7 n/a 52 38 40 27 n/a 45 3.0 3.1 4.7 5.5 n/a 2.8 Source: WEF, 2009, the Financial Development Report Comparing with regional countries, Vietnamese banks are still of small size with relatively low profitability. Though official data of NPLs based on Viet Nam Accounting Standards (VAS) show a moderate NPLs ratio, international organizations often assumes a much higher NPLs ratio if IAS is applied. 303 Table 1.10. Comparison of Viet Nam banking sector with regional countries (Data as of Dec. 2008) Total assets (billion USD) Credit (billion USD) ROE (%) ROA (%) NPLs (%) Viet Nama 127.66 Malaysiab Indonesiab Philippinesb 386.25 213.98 119.52 73.10 208.85 119.42 61.59 9.7 1.0 3.5 18.5 1.5 2.2 21.94* 2.08* 3.8 6.91 0.77 4.51 Source: a. ACB, April 2009, Banking Sector Analysis Report b. Central bank websites, calculated *. Return: annual profits before taxes Thus, the competitiveness of Vietnamese financial sector in general and banking sector in particular is still low compared with regional and world countries. Competitiveness of banking sector vis-à-vis other financial services The growth of other financial services such as insurance, stock market would not pose a great challenge to banks as the main provider of credit and risk management service to enterprises. When the economy grows, a part of household savings may be attracted to insurance products. However, the insurance sector is still small with insurance revenue accounts for 1.8% of GDP in 2007 62, despite its steady and fast growth in recent years. While the capital market is not yet developed, banks can provide intermediary services to insurance companies (asset management service) and securities companies. Thus growth in these sectors will not hamper, rather, it facilitates development of the banking sector. The development of capital market depends on fundamental progress in legal framework, accounting practices, business governance, and transparency. Shortcomings in these areas are not yet basically addressed, which in turn impede on effective development of the capital market. In 2008, stock market capitalization was at 15% GDP, after surging to 43% GDP in 2007 due to speculative factor63. Thus, in the next 10 years, the banking sector will continue to play a vital role on fund mobilization and credit allocation in the economy. Banks will remain dominating institutions in the financial market. Competition within the banking system 62 IFC, 2008, Vietnam: Financial Sector Diagnostic Suiwah Leung, Banking and Financial Sector Reform in Vietnam, ASEAN Economic Bulletin Vol.26, No1 (April 2009) 63 304 Entry by foreign banks will add up to competitive pressure in the banking sector As new comers, foreign banks will initially compete with each other in providing supporting services for FDI, FII, forex, and commercial-related services of major domestic companies of good credit reputation. The scale of the foreign bank group thus depends on the scale of FDI. Foreign banks can apply 1 or both 2 of the market access modes to penetrate into the retail banking market. These include establishment of 100% foreign owned subsidiaries to expand network or making strategic investment in domestic joint stock banks. JSBs benefit from the transfer of technology, product development, new services, managerial skills, risk management skills from foreign strategic partners. The major impact of foreign bank entry would be more fierce competition in a small market. A real danger to SOCBs comes from strategic partnership between JSBs and foreign banks. Currently, the seek for foreign strategic partner faces difficulty due to global financial crisis and limited capacity of JSBs. In the situation of Viet Nam, the comprehensive commitments in opening banking service market presents a risk to Vietnamese banks due to unequal business environment. In general, Vietnamese banks are less competitive than foreign banks in import aspects of (i) total asset size, (ii) level of banking technology modernization, (iii) human resource and (iv) governance capacity based on international standards. In addition, with the ability to be commercially present in Viet Nam under all forms, foreign banks can choose to establish both branch and subsidiary in Viet Nam 64. The maintenance of both branch and subsidiary create much better competitiveness for foreign banks compared with domestic banks since the former can develop business network through subsidiary (having national treatment) and extend large credits through branches (credit limit is calculated upon the parent bank's capital). Fast development of joint stock commercial banks help them gain quickly on market share. As mentioned above, JSBs may gain lots of benefits from the relaxation of foreign ownership participation. On the other hand, JSBs are much more vulnerable than foreign banks in face of competition from SOCBs. Since many JSBs are limited in terms of geographical location, if SOCBs perform better JSBs may go down because the SOCBs enjoy a major competitive advantage of being able to accept more credit risks thanks to the government’s implicit guarantee and to exceed the lending limit to a customer. JSBs will focus on supplying services to good SMEs, risk management services when the legal framework for such services is issued. Some JSBs will participate actively in the savings market in urban areas and provide banking service to high income households. Foreign banks will be the major competitors in new banking service, and SOCBs will be the main rivals in deposits and lending by JSBs. 64 03/5 foreign banks licensed to establish their subsidiary have maintained both branch and subsidiary in Vietnam, including ANZ, HSBC, Standard Chartered Bank. 305 In the coming time SOCBs continue to be the major savings mobilizer and credit allocator SOCBs are too big to specialize in a certain target market. However, they may remain the major service provider in rural areas. As time goes by, credit decision will become centralized and credit allocation becomes fully commercial-based. However, a determinant factor of banking operation is the implicit guarantee of the government towards SOCBs. This implicit guarantee may create moral hazards in credit extension by SOCBs and also put SOCBs on a more advantageous position in savings mobilization compared with JSBs. That said, if SOCBs do not move to fully commercial based, the development of the banking sector will be limited and the overall size and capacity of service provision of the banking sector will reduce. The on-going equalization policy will gradually reduce SOCBs advantages and nourish a healthier competitive environment 65. Competitiveness of individual credit institution The competitiveness of any CI is not measured by its market share or even ROE, although these indicators aim at showing better performance of a more competitive institution. There are two aspects of an individual institution's competitiveness. The comparative advantage of a CI is closely related to its historical role in the market, while competitiveness is more related its governance and flexibility in the use of resources. Comparative advantage of different groups of CIs - Foreign banks: financing FDI and related services, specialized forex service and service for big companies, retail banking to wealthier people (including credit card). - JSBs: credit to SMEs, domestic transaction services, retail banking in urban areas including modern banking when the market develop; and - SOCBs: credit to SOEs, domestic savings mobilization especially from urban and rural areas, forex services, payment and credit services. Competitiveness of individual institution A competitive CI should have the following characteristics: (i) Capacity to innovate; (ii) Capacity to allocate and reallocate asset and liability portfolio; (iii) Capacity to improve productivity and manage its use of resources; (iv) Solvency, capital and liquidity; and (v) Strong owners. Thus, for a CI to be competitive, it should have both capacity and incentive to compete. Foreign banks are highly competitive but probably will only operate in certain suitable market segments. JSBs shall be more competitive when their shareholders put higher demands on performance. SOCBs will face considerable challenges in enhancing efficiency because of their historical structure, one of which is to create pressure on the management to 65 02 SOCBs (VCB and VietinBank) have accomplished equalization, other 02 SOCBs (BIDV and MHB) are in the process of preparation for equalization. 306 become more competitive. In order to achieve this, SOCBs should operate purely on a commercial basis within the prudential framework set out for the banking sector. They also need to be able to decide on prices, credit allocation and make other business decisions in a commercial way. 3.5 Tr ends and For ecast of demand for banking ser vices in the medium and long ter m 3.5.1. Demand for banking services continue to grow strongly in the years to come because of the following factors: - Demand for banking services will grow strongly thanks to the great potential of the Vietnamese market. Currently the penetration rate of banking service is quite low, as shown in only 10% of the population using bank account 66. - Changes in population structure, population growth (especially in urban areas), the increasing number of industrial areas and new urban will lead to significant expansion in the number of enterprises and individuals having a demand for banking service. - The number of Vietnamese overseas, overseas workers goes up; therefore demand for remittances (foreign exchange) and other bank payment services tends to rise more sharply. - Income per capita of Viet Nam has been gradually improved, resulting in corresponding increased demand for banking services 67. - Business and investment cooperation between Viet Nam and foreign partners are more and more developed. The expected increase in the number of Vietnamese enterprise in coming time will also help boost demand for banking services; and - Better infrastructure, especially telecom, will facilitate innovation in banking utilities and thus stronger banking service growth. 3.5.2. Demand from the customers' point of view Trend of banking service demand could be examined from the aspect of customers' demand. Results of a survey 68 on banking service conducted with both individual and institutional customers in Ho Chi Minh City done by Saigon Marketing Newspaper in early 2008 revealed that: - As for individual consumers: 51.7% of the surveyed people (mainly savings and demand depositors) had the need for safe deposits at suitable interest rate; 43.7% of the surveyed people (mainly users of different types of card) wanted to be served convenient and timely payment services. - As for institutional consumers: 38.6% of institutional consumers have a need to place deposits; 29.7% have payment needs; 16.8% need domestic financing and 14.9% need international financing. 66 See McKensey, March 2008, Report on “How young consumer could sharp Vietnam’s banks” In 2008 income per capita of VN exceeded 1000 USD/ year. 68 See http://www.sgtt.com.vn/ 67 307 - As for demand for banking service improvement: With regard to lending, 31.7% of the surveyed consumers hold that banks need to simplify procedures to make them understandable, transparent, time-saving and ensure appropriate, stable interest rate and costs; With regard to payment and fund transfer: 28.1% think that banks need to accommodate faster transfer and withdrawal, improve connection within each bank as well as among banks; With regard to international trade finance: 24% need more information, preferential treatment policy for major and frequent customers; With regard to treasury operations: 16.3% need faster processing by banks, customer advice, and more modern ATMs. 3.6 Ser vice Gap 3.6.1. Banking services are still monotonous, poor in variety, low in quality. The banking system is not directed towards customer demand and relies on traditional banking services, i.e. fund raising, credit extension, and payment. Fund raising is mainly by accepting deposits and credit extension is mainly by lending. Modern banking services are either not developed or developed in an un-uniform manner. Many important services are not yet introduced or develops below potential, particularly individual and retail services, which enjoy great potential for growth (such as account, cheque, card, payment, asset management, mortgage credit, consumer credit etc.). 3.6.2. Banking service utility remains low because of little application of technology in product development and non-linkage of services. Modern banking services receive undue investment. Asset management, financial consulting, money brokerage, financial intermediation and support, trading in financial instruments, financial information provision and transfer services are undeveloped. E-banking (debit card, credit card, ATM, internet banking, home/office banking, phone banking…) and electronic distribution channel have grown robustly but many limitations exist, including low utility and economic efficiency. Monetary, interest rate, exchange rate derivatives in forex, investment and treasury operations (such as swaps, forwards, futures, and options) are not yet developed or still in experimental phase. 3.6.3. Bank transaction procedures remain cumbersome and inconvenient for customers; style of service is typically bureaucratic and not yet customer-centered. These barriers restrict the accessibility of banking service to a part of customers having proper demand and capability of using banking service. 3.6.4. The banking service market is below potential, inadequate competition, competitive modes are simple. The level of meeting social demand for banking service is low due to limitations in quantity, quality, and accessibility. Competition by quality of service, technology and brandname is not yet popular, leading to instability of the service market, which is prone to interest rate racing and network expansion competition in a wasteful way. On the other hand, CIs do not cooperate and associate well, thus reducing considerably efficiency of the whole system (for example, ATMs system is not yet connected, neither is common payment among banks). 308 3.6.5. The system of microfinance is undeveloped. There is a lack of professional institutions specialized in serving certain sector(s), customers, particularly with regard to industries/sectors making substantial contribution to economic growth, customers in the remote, isolated, rural and disadvantaged regions. Hence, CIs have not yet met the demand for banking services of different groups of users, including low-income people, poor people without collateral and who have great difficulty in accessing bank credit. 3.6.6. Banks are of small size, with low level of governance and monitoring. The capacity of project appraisal, credit monitoring and modern technology application is still weak. Physical infrastructure of banks and the economy is not yet uniform. These problems impeded on development of banking services and eroded competitiveness of banks. 3.6.7. Traditional banking services contain lots of risks at both funding and financing sides; credit quality is not good with high NPLs ratios. While credit is the main business of CIs, its high risk and in proportionate profitability have been and continue to threaten soundness of CIs. Credit is the main source of income for CIs. Income from payment service, forex trading, investment and other banking services is generally low. Credit growth of the banking sector has been too fast, at an average 25%/year during the period 2000-2008, even reached 50% in some years. Several CIs experienced credit growth as high as 40%/year. This growth is quite risky, particularly given the limited and slowly improved level of equity and risk management capacity. Credit, therefore, is one of the operations that accumulate the biggest risks to CIs. Most of the low-quality risk assets lie in bad debts. In the meantime, risk provisioning capacity is limited; some CIs could not set aside sufficient risk provisions. This increases vulnerability of CIs in the context that macroeconomic conditions are not firmly stable, domestic investment and business environment contains large risks, enterprises are still weak in competitiveness, efficiency, and financial and payment capacity. Even when CIs tend to extend secured credit, the risks are still quite high because ability to analyze, evaluate and manage credits of CIs is still weak, while property and commodity markets are underdeveloped and volatile. In addition, asymmetric, inadequate and unreliable financial/credit information is also a cause of ineffective credit allocation and adverse selection of credit users by the banking system. 3.6.8 Service supply modes are not diversified. Compared with the GATS mode of supply, Vietnamese banking services are mainly provided domestically. Cross-border supply, personal and commercial presences are limited. Total revenues from export of financial services of Viet Nam only accounted for 3.5% of total service export revenues in 2003. 3.7 SWOT Analysis Strength: - The banking sector is varied in types and sizes, thus achieving complementarily among banks and meeting diversified needs of different groups of customers. 309 - Banks have been developing in relatively stable macroeconomic conditions and consecutive high growth during the last decade, which enabled them to expand the scale of operation and facilitated the introduction of new services. Though the country in general and banking sector in particular are adversely affected by the financial crisis and global recession, Viet Nam has been weathering this turmoil rather well and is among few countries with positive growth in the first half of this year. - Being the main provider of credit to the economy, banks have gained a relatively firm market position in terms of operational network, knowledge on customers and confidence of the public. Weakness: - The legal and regulatory framework is not uniform, with inadequate provisions on creditors' right, prudential regulations, risk provisioning and accounting standards are not yet consistent with international standards and practices. - With exception of foreign banks, the general weak governance and risk management capability entail great potential risks to banks' operations. - Important infrastructure for banking activities is poor, for example: clearing and settlement system, core banking, and card switching system. - Most Vietnamese banks are small in terms of capital and assets size compared with regional countries, let alone developed nations in the world. This hampers the competitiveness and capacity to provide services in international markets of banks. - The diversification and introduction of new services to meet changing demand of the economy are happening at an unsatisfactory pace. So far, most banks still rely on traditional services of deposit taking, lending and payment. - Qualifications and capacity of bank staff and managers have not matched with rapid development of the banking service sector. - Limited capacity of bank supervisors and supervisory methodology. Bank supervision is still compliance-based, thus limiting the assessment and dealing with risks in the system. Opportunities: - The on-going liberalization of financial sector under multilateral and bilateral frameworks enables the entry of foreign banks under different forms, including the formulation of strategic partnership between foreign and domestic banks, thereby pushing up the transfer of technology, human and financial resources to the banking sector. - Since the current penetration rate is still low, banks have a huge potential market to provide services to. In addition, the economic reform and opening process will help further expand this potential market through increased economic activities and income of the population. 310 - As followers, Vietnamese banks can learn from lessons of the more developed countries and adopt best international practices. Threats: - As a result of the on-going international integration process, Viet Nam has become a highly open economy in terms of trading and investment. Its vulnerability to external shocks is therefore considerably increased. Though the extent of banks' direct linkage to international markets is still limited, the indirect impacts on banks through other sectors of the economy have risen significantly. - International experiences show that financial liberalization could be a threat to systemic stability if the former is not accompanied with regulatory and institutional reforms. Thus it is important to have proper sequencing of liberalization in line with the enhancement of capacity to conduct prudential regulation and reforms of governance and legal framework. - Higher and strong competition in the banking system could lead to bank failures and collapses that imply systemic instability if exit strategy and framework are not properly set up. The prerequisites for stimulating the banking sector growth 3.8 Macr oeconomic stability is a necessar y condition for the sustainability and gr owth of the banking sector Macroeconomic policy exerts an important impact on the development of the banking sector. Stable macroeconomic conditions contribute to the soundness of banks, driving the growth of banking system and help boost demand for banking services of the economy. Vice versus, instability of macroeconomics would have adverse implications on the stability and development of the banking sector. Specifically: (i) High inflation and slow real growth add to the risk of crisis due to bankruptcy of companies and credit institutions have difficulty in selling collaterals at the accepted value; (ii) High inflation creates pressure on stability of exchange rate and interest rate; and (iii) High real interest rate exacerbates the risk of systemic crisis because of higher debt service, greater possibility of company failure, and the financing of high risk activities. Actual developments in 2008 have shown that when macroeconomic condition is instable and inflation rises, banking operations face a lot of difficulties due to tightening policy of the SBV, which make banks encounter liquidity problems, leading to worsened performance of banks and even threatening stability of the overall banking system. On another aspect, banking sector development drives economic growth and vice versus. Through more effective fund allocation and transaction services, and with risk-mitigation products provided to companies and households, financial services contribute to promote savings and efficient investment. As the economy grows and households become wealthier, demand for banking services will rise. However, this cycle could be inverted by weak 311 governance (frauds, directed lending, liquidity crisis, loss of solvency), which triggers loss of confidence in banking system. 3.9 An Enabling Business Envir onment for Banking Ser vice Gr owth In principle, as the legal provisions governing the supply, management, and supervision of banking services, legal framework on banking service has a great impact on the business operation of credit institutions. Banking service laws can promote and support actively the development of banking services if the former is suitable with practical conditions. On the contrary, banking service laws could hamper its development if this legal system entails considerable shortcomings. Thus, an enabling legal and regulatory framework for banking service development should foster fair competition in the sector. Higher competition is an advantage for users of banking service and brings about positive benefits to economic growth since it: (i) Lower financial service unit cost (not necessarily the total expenditures on financial services); (ii) For enterprises, enabling them to reduce cost and/or risks in managing business financing accounts; (iii) Facilitate savings by households because of better access; and (iv) Ensure higher security for future access to funding, therefore reduce the need for prudential savings. Application of modern information technology is a foundation for developing modern banking services In the last several years the robust development of telecommunication services (mobile phone, internet ...) and rapid growth in the number of users have generated more demand on modern banking services (such as e-purse, e-money, online payment ...) and allowed CIs open additional channel of service distribution through electronic means (for example, mobile banking, SMS banking, internet banking, phone banking...). In addition, the level of telecommunication infrastructure development also makes it possible for CIs to deploy crossborder banking service supply. The application of information technology in banking operations and governance help banks manage risks better since information technology is used in the analysis, forecasting, providing inputs for business decision making, concentrated risk management, efficient liquidity management, and connection and integration of banking operations. The quality of telecom service is a contributing factor to improved quality of banking services, an example is the relationship between ATM service and data transmission line. 3.10 High quality human r esour ce is a necessar y condition for developing banking ser vices Human resource is ultimately the key factor for any country's development in general and banking sector in particular. With the vision of building a knowledge economy, diversifying modern banking services, and expanding network, the banking sector needs a large cadre of staff who are professionally well trained. 312 The current shortage in both quantity and quality of human resource increased competition in attracting human resource among CIs and raised salary costs of CIs. 3.11 Str engthening pr otection of cr editor 's r ight and establishment of effective bankr uptcy mechanism ar e essential in heightening confidence in banking sector and contr ibuting to the gr owth of banking ser vices The legal framework on protecting creditor's right plays an important role not only to the economy but also to CIs and businesses. An effective mechanism of creditor's right protection will assist in creating and maintaining confidence of investors and lenders, thereby allocating and using social resources in an efficient way, creating legal prerequisite for stabilizing economic relations, reducing financial intermediation cost, enhancing accessibility of enterprises and bringing about sound functioning of the financial markets. A comprehensive legal environment for banking business can not lack the provisions on protecting creditor's right with adequate mechanisms to protect legitimate rights and interest of the creditor – as provider of finance for other partners in economic-commercial relationship. In Viet Nam, provisions on protecting creditor's right have been established under the Law on Bankruptcy and the Civil Code. Similarly, ineffective regulations on bankruptcy will make enterprises having financial trouble fall into stagnation, they can not restructure debts and neither be able to raise necessary funds for new projects. In an economic crisis situation, countries need a reliable bankruptcy mechanism to deal with consequences and quickly restore financial capacity for enterprises which are in need of new capital. If enterprises can not mobilize more funds when they have financial difficulty and bankruptcy mechanism can not address bad debt problem, macroeconomic instability will prolonged and consequently investor's confidence and accessibility to credit being undermined. Report on business environment of the World Bank shows that investor (including creditor) protection and bankruptcy procedure indices are very limited, thus affect on the stability and growth of the banking sector. Table 2.1. Ranking of Viet Nam's business environment Ease of... 2008 rank Doing Business 92 Starting a Business 108 Dealing with Licenses 67 Employing Workers 90 Registering Property 37 Getting Credit 43 Protecting Investors 170 Paying Taxes 140 Trading Across Borders 67 Enforcing Contracts 42 Closing a Business 124 2007 rank 91 97 63 84 38 48 165 128 63 40 121 2006 rank .. 90 62 82 35 80 175 128 50 41 119 313 Source: World Bank, Report on Doing Business 2007, 2008, 2009 3.12 Recommendations on banking ser vice development str ategy up to the year 2020 and vision to the year 2025 i.Recommendation on the Vision Developing diversified banking services driven by the demand of the economy, focusing on quality enhancement and effectiveness of traditional banking services, and on fast development of modern banking services based on high technology; to reach the average level of other countries in the region in term of both service quality and quantity by the year 2025. ii.Recommendations on Strategic Goals Firstly, the development of banking services should make contribution to the implementation of socio-economic strategies for the period from 2011 to 2020 with the focus on industrialization and modernization strategies, agricultural and rural development and improvement of access to banking services for SME and individuals. Secondly, the development of banking services should ensure the safety and the effectiveness of operations of each credit institution as well as credit institution system as a whole. Thirdly, the cooperation and interconnection among credit institutions and between credit institutions and other organizations in research development for modern banking products and services should be strengthen in the direction of market demand, building up technology infrastructure for common use. iii.Recommendations on Development Objectives for Basic Banking Services Development objectives for fund mobilization service To mobilize to the largest extent funds from domestic and oversea resources in order to meet credit demand of the economy; at the same time, to stimulate organizations and individuals to accumulate assets, to make investment and deposit their funds in banks in VND with the aim of ensuring economic interest of depositors and enhancing quality of fund mobilization service. To diversify fund mobilizing methods and facilities in VND and foreign currencies with convenient procedures and attractive conditions. To foster the mobilization of idle funds and public savings currently is in the kinds of gold and foreign currencies by offering attractive fund mobilization methods and secured measures for ensuring the value of customers’ deposits. To concentrate on customers’ deposits and savings; deposits and borrowing funds in the interbank market, as well as on promoting valuable papers issuance; trusted funds acceptance (inside and outside of the country); assets management. To diversify and improve fund mobilization service quality in combination with development of other services such as credit, investment, non-cash payment, and account and assets 314 management based on the principle of mutual risk and profit sharing between customers and credit institutions in order to make contribution to the building up of a diversified banking system with multi features for the economy. To change the mobilized fund structure in the direction of increasing medium and long-term funds. To gradually foster the issuance of debt instruments and long-term bonds in accordance with international best practices and in order to meet listing requirements of Securities Trading Center. To encourage credit institutions compete with each other in term of fund mobilization mainly based on quality, convenience and technology of mobilization service, reputation and trustworthy of the credit institution rather than mainly based on interest rate or promotions. To create favourable conditions for credit institutions to access international financial markets, especially fund resources (investment trust, financial trade, ODA, favourable credit, deposits…) from financial institutions, non-governmental and governmental organizations of various countries. To take advantages of international favourable credit to make investment for social policy subjects, to develop socio-economic infrastructure and other economic development programs. To allow Vietnamese credit institutions having met requirements to issue and list fund mobilization instruments, bonds, stocks in regional and international financial markets. Development objectives for credit and investment services To diversify and improve quality of credit services in the forms of loans, discounting valuable papers, guarantee, factoring, credit cards, financial leasing, advances and other forms of credit in order to better serve the demand for investment fund in business and consumer production of the economy. To establish a flexible credit market with healthy and fair competition environment among types of credit institutions; to create opportunities for all organizations or individuals seeking funds, doing lawful business and being able to repay the loans to have easy access to bank’s credit. To improve credit institutions’ credit provision and credit risk management abilities in different fields such as loans, financial trade, financial leasing, project finance. To completely apply market discipline in credit operations, ensuring proper correlation between risk and profit, prioritizing credit provision to investment projects and loans that have high economic return with low risk. To use funds appropriately to broaden medium and long-term credit provision to investment projects, constructions having high economic return and to ensure the accordance between fund structure and fund utilization of credit institutions. To foster co-financial and syndicated loans of credit institutions to big projects, especially to socio-economic infrastructure development projects. To step by step implement new credit services, credit and FX derivatives in accordance with international best practices. 315 To continue to broaden credit provision according to size, fund structure and strictly in compliance with prudential regulations and limitations for credit operations, at the same time enhancing risk management ability of credit institutions. Quality and safety of credit operations are the first priority, closely attaching credit growth with quality control and effectiveness of credit growth; fostering bad debts write off and reducing the occurrence of new non-performing loans. To continue to reform credit regime, policies, and procedures bearing in mind the simplicity and convenience for use. Credit institutions should have full autonomy and selfresponsibilities for their credit operations, improving market disciplines, trading principles, transparency; applying international standards to credit operations of credit institutions; avoiding administrative intervention in business course or ordering credit institutions to provide credit. To prevent and control any negativeness in credit operations. Development objectives for payment service To robustly develop payment services through banks, non-cash payments based on application technology and modern banking payment system which is safe, trustworthy, and effective and in accordance with international best practices and standards; diversifying payment services through banks in order to encourage economic sectors, especially individuals to use payment services through banks, reducing the use of cash for payments. To ensure adequate and safe cash payments and treasury services for the economy. To closely connect payment services with other banking and financial services, especially fund mobilization, credit and FX services. To ensure the cooperation between organizations providing banking services and other organizations, enterprises, organizations providing consumer products and services, the public through provision and use of non-cash payment services, convenient cards services with low fees. To strengthen the connection and cooperation among organizations providing non-cash payment services, especially focusing on development of payment infrastructure for common use in order to save costs, add to effectiveness and competitiveness of the system as a whole. To broadly implement electronic payment services and electronic automatic transactions system. To foster investment at the same time in research development and implementation of new payment instruments in accordance with international standards, including electronic money, electronic wallet, domestic payment cards, international payment cards, universal cards, smart cards and checks. To concentrate into broad implementation of payment services through banks for e-business. To focus on fostering account services, firstly individual accounts with convenient and safe procedures, attaching various features to attract low cost funding in payments and establish fundamentals for development of card payment, personal cheques and non-cash payment services. To broaden forms of international payment services (L/C, wire transfer…) in order to support international investments and import-export of goods and services. To broaden services such 316 as issuance and payment agency for payment cards, cheques, and gradually develop the issuance of international payment cards of Viet Nam. To create favourable conditions for development of overseas national currency exchange through banks and to apply effective measures to attract overseas national currency exchange, having at the same time appropriate management regime to avoid dollarization. To organize propagating and advertising programs on overseas national currency exchange and international wire transfer. To establish transfer channel for direct overseas national currency exchange with correspondent banks in countries where a lot of Vietnamese living and working. To open more payment points and convenient methods for overseas national currency exchange. Development objectives for FX and other services To concentrate foreign currencies resources into the banking system to best meet with lawful foreign currencies needs of enterprises and individuals. To effectively control the flow of foreign currencies in the economy to reduce the dollarization. To ensure the rights to ownership, buying, selling and using foreign currencies of enterprises and individuals in accordance with provisions of the law. To strengthen and reorganize foreign exchange operations, ensuring that floating foreign currencies in the market to be gathered into the banking system. To create favourable conditions for organizations and individuals to access the FX market and FX services; for credit institutions to implement risk management services, investment and other monetary operations, especially derivative instruments such as monetary, interest rate, exchange rate (between VND and other currencies; between foreign currencies, including gold) in domestic and international financial markets in accordance with international best practices and standards in order to better meet with demand for foreign currencies of customers, enhancing the ability of credit institutions in prevention of interest rate and exchange rate risks related to credit institutions’ assets and income. To foster capital trading services in monetary market, especially in interbank market in order to effectively use working capital and ensure the solvency. To create favourable conditions for credit institutions to effectively involve in the provision of other financial services in order to diversify income resources and increase revenue of the credit institution such as gold trading; capital arrangements; investment brokerage; hedging through derivative instruments,…) as supplementary services in diversification business strategy, broadening customer base and taking advantages of technological infrastructure and service provision ability of Vietnamese credit institutions. Development objectives for banking service market and identification of clients of the banking system To implement planning and appropriate allocation of credit institutions in accordance with socio-economic development requirements for localities and regions. To refine types of credit institutions, methods and forms of effective banking services provision, especially focusing 317 on microfinance and development financial institutions (development bank, import-export bank…). To broaden agency relationship with foreign financial institutions, fostering the access to international financial markets and the business present of Vietnamese credit institutions in regional and international financial markets. At first, to promote the provision of international banking services cross the borders to important markets such as US, EU and Asian. The clients of banking system include all organizations and individuals having demand for banking services. Organizations, individuals having sufficient financial ability and met requirements of banking procedures are treated fairly and have the same unlimited access to banking services in accordance with provisions of the law and based on agreement principle. Banking services should be broaden to the whole economy, business and consumer productions of individuals and households, serving key economic sectors and regions having development potential as identified in the Strategy of socio-economic development for the period of 2011-2020 and Plan of socio-economic development for the period of 2011-2015. As for policy objects, the Government needs to have clear policy and regime based on principle of fully separating policy banking from commercial banking in order to help credit institutions do business and develop by market discipline. Credit institutions could voluntarily participate in policy loan program through agency or trust service or provide other supporting service with market conditions and self-responsibility. 318 CHAPTER 4: TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES 4.1 Cur r ent State and Development Issues of the Telecommunication Sector in Viet Nam Telecommunications and Internet have continued to have the high growth, the development speed of telephone subscribers is rapid, and total telephone subscriber on whole network is 82.25 subscribers million, in which mobile subscriber holds around 85.5 percent (70.3ms mobile subscribers), 14.5 percent for fixed-line telephone (11.95mn fixed-line telephone subscriber); penetration rate is 97.5 percent. In total 70.3ms mobile subscribers has over 88 percent for subscribers using GSM technology (about 62mn subscribers), remainder is subscribers using CDMA technology. There are 20.67 Internet users million in the whole country and the penetration reached 24.20 percent; total number of broadband subscriber reached 2 million. To December 2008, the number of mobile customers in Viet Nam reached to over 70.3mn. According to the summary report of MIC in December 2008, Viettel Corporation, which is owned by the Vietnamese Military, continued to lead the Vietnamese mobile market with a market share of around 34.1%. Viettel has a clear lead over the next largest mobile operators, MobiFone and VinaPhone, which had market shares of approximately 28.4% and 25.6%, respectively. The growth rate of mobile subscriber reached almost 96% for 2008. The mobile penetration rate reached 83.4%. In 2008, Viet Nam developed over new 34 mobile subscribers against 2007. It should be remembered that the figures for the number of Vietnamese mobile customers are based on the assumption that the market contains a large number of inactive prepaid users. Competition and growth in Viet Nam’s mobile sector has been boosted by the recent wave of tariff cuts, which have been introduced by the various operators. Further cuts may follow in the near future, possibly resulting in a price war. Looking ahead, we now predict that Viet Nam will surpass the 100% penetration threshold in 2010, instead of 2011 as previously predicted. By the end of 2012, we envisage almost 136mn customers and a penetration rate of almost 147%. Continued customer growth will be supported by a steadily expanding population, as well as the arrival of increased competition and new investment. Meanwhile, according to Viet Nam’s Internet Network Information Centre (VNNIC) – it belongs to MIC, in 2008, the number of broadband subscribers rose by 58% against 2007. By the end of December, broadband penetration in Viet Nam had risen to 2.43%, up from 1.5% at the end of 2007. In the Q4 of 2008 had seen accelerated efforts to increase the level of investment in broadband technologies and to encourage further take-up. In September 2008, incumbent operator VNPT launched a campaign to promote its ‘MegaVNN’ ADSL service to fixed-line users. The promotion, which runs from September 16 to October 30, offered free 319 ADSL modem and registration fees for new MegaVNN users and customers who shifted their indirect internet services to MegaVNN on fixed phone lines. We continue to believe that broadband subscriber growth will be strong over the next five years. By the end of 2008, Vietnamese Internet market had around 2.05mn broadband subscribers (equivalent to a penetration rate of 2.43%). The Current state of Telecoms Market of Viet Nam Mobile In 2008, Vietnamese mobile market share with participation of 7 operator: Vinaphone, MobiFone, Viettel (using GSM technology); S-Fone, EVN Telecom (using CDMA), HT Mobile (in the period of switching from CDMA into e-GSM technology), Gtel (has not put into operation) takes place actively. However, both HT Mobile and Gtel are considered as not operating; CDMA networks have not create the great change steps on mobile market and it is pressured very much by network using GSM technology. The latest data from Viet Nam’s Ministry of Information and Communications (MIC) suggests that there were almost 50mn mobile subscribers at the start of June 2008. Of this figure, some 90% are understood to be prepaid customers. This high proportion of prepaid subscribers means that mobile ARPU in Viet Nam is about US$6 per month, one of the lowest rates in Asia. Obtaining reliable and detailed data on the number of mobile subscribers served by Viet Nam’s seven mobile network operators remains a challenging exercise. None of the operators publish data on their own subscribers, while the MIC only publishes data on an occasional basis. According to MIC’s year-end summation report on 2 January 2009, Viettel, which is owned by the Vietnamese military, continued to lead the Vietnamese mobile market at the start of June with approximately 24mn subscribers and a market share of around 34.1%. Viettel has a clear lead over the next largest mobile operators, MobiFone and VinaPhone, with 20mn and 18mn customers, respectively. Both MobiFone and VinaPhone are owned by incumbent operator VNPT. Meanwhile, according to the Ministry, fourth-ranked S-Phone had 5.1mn customers. 320 Mobile m arket 2008 EVN , 4.6% S-Fone , 7.3% VinaPhone , 25.6% HT Mobile, 0.0% Gtel, 0.0% Viettel , 34.1% MobiFone , 28.4% We estimate that, Viettel continued to have the biggest market share, the next is MobiFone and VinaPhone, respectively. The number of customer of S-Phone rose over the number of subscriber of EVN Telecom because in 2008 HT Mobile (Hanoi Telecom) handed over subscribers of its CDMA mobile network for S-Fone. Therefore, the market share of S-Phone is bigger than EVN Telecom. Together, Viet Nam’s three GSM operators controlled over 88% of the mobile market at the end of 2008. The number of mobile CDMA subscribers had reached almost 8.3mn at the end of 2008, up from just below 2.3mn at the end of 2007. Although the CDMA subscriber base is expected to continue growing, growth is predicted to be less rapid than for GSM customers. As a result, the CDMA operators are likely difficult to get the market share from the larger operators. Table 1: Viet Nam Mobile Market, June 2008 Operator No. of Subscribers (mn) Market (%) 34.1% 28.4% 25.6% 7.3% 4.6% Share Viettel 24.0 MobiFone 20.0 VinaPhone 18.0 S-Fone 5.1 EVN Telecom 3.2 HT Mobile (Viet 0 0.0% Namobile) Gtel 0 0.0% Total 70.3 100% Despite the continuation of rapid subscriber growth, the high proportion of prepaid customers increases the likelihood that the sector contains a high level of inactivity. Future moves to discount inactive mobile users could result in a significant fall for the penetration rate. Viet Nam’s MIC recently pledged to conduct an audit of all operators’ counting methodologies over deciding whether a SIM card is active or not. Another factor contributing to the relatively high penetration rate is the large number of multiple SIM cardholders which are 321 thought to exist within Viet Nam’s mobile market. This phenomenon is largely a consequence of the high level of market competition and the plethora of promotional campaigns that exist. By the end of 2007, MobiFone and VinaPhone, both controlled by VNPT, had a combined subscriber base of 19mn. By the end of June 2008, the two VNPT-controlled operators had expanded their combined subscriber base by nearly 36%. During 2007, MobiFone and VinaPhone deployed 6,000 new base stations. VinaPhone aimed to add a further 5,000 base transceiver stations (BTSs), in order to achieve its target of 9,000 BTS by the end of 2008. In May 2008, VinaPhone awarded a contract to UK vendor Aircom International in order to provide it with network planning and design services. Furthermore, in December 2007, both MobiFone and VinaPhone began reducing their call charges by as much as 25-28% in order to safeguard and expand their market shares. Accordingly, activation fees for post-paid mobile subscribers fell from VND136, 364 to VND109,000, while monthly subscription charges remained the same at VND54,545. Call charges are being reduced by 20% on average for post-paid subscribers, while, for prepaid subscribers, the charges are being cut by nearly 30%. In December 2007, it was announced that VNPT had entered a partnership with Motorola to expand and enhance VinaPhone’s GSM network in major cities, including Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. Motorola was contracted to install over 650 cell sites and provide optimization and maintenance services. Then in June 2008, it was announced that Motorola had signed further contracts worth US$28mn for the expansion of VinaPhone’s network in twelve Northern provinces of Viet Nam. Under the agreement, more than 1,000 cell sites will be deployed. Motorola is also understood to be co-operating with VinaPhone in order to expand GPRS coverage and provide EDGE service in major metropolitan areas. MobiFone has said that, in 2008, it expects to earn total revenues of VND16trn (US$1bn) and return a profit of VND6.65trn. In order to achieve these goals, the company will continue to expand its coverage area and increase its service quality in all localities and cities throughout the country. It plans to raise its number of BTS to 10,000 by the end of the year. MobiFone is understood to be preparing for an IPO. It is thought that approximately one-third of the company will be floated, with the government retaining a 33.3% stake with the final third going to a strategic investor. The IPO is expected to be the first of several planned privatizations in Viet Nam’s telecoms sector. Norwegian telecom company Telenor has continued to fuel speculation about its possible entry into Viet Nam’s mobile market. We believe that the privatization of MobiFone is seen as one possible route of entry to the sector for the operator. Telenor has had a representative office in Viet Nam since 2005. If Telenor does make a bid to acquire a stake in MobiFone, it is unlikely to go unchallenged. It is expected that Singapore Technologies Telemedia (STT), which controls 75% of Asia Mobile Holdings, and as such controls a 40% stake in Indonesia’s second-ranked mobile 322 operator Indosat will also make a move to acquire MobiFone assets. STT expects the sale of MobiFone’s stake, originally slated for 2008, to be delayed until 2009. Although Viettel, MobiFone and VinaPhone continue to dominate the mobile sector, Viet Nam’s three CDMA operators have recently enacted policies that are designed to expand their current minority market shares. S-Fone, which has South Korea’s SK Telecom as a shareholder, is also said to be considering a cut in tariffs in line with market trends. In April 2008, the smallest of Viet Nam’s CDMA operators, HT Mobile, began migrating customers away from its CDMA network towards GSM technology. Those customers staying with HT Mobile will receive a new GSM handset. However, those who choose to retain a CDMA service will be switched to S-Fone’s network. HT Mobile decided to implement the transition after failing to reach its target of luring 1mn customers by the end of 2007. Meanwhile, new operators are poised to enter Viet Nam’s mobile market in the coming months. In January 2008, it was reported that the MIC was ready to grant a license to Global Telecom Corporation (GTel) to offer mobile services. GTel is backed by Russian giant VimpelCom, which is said to be prepared to invest up to US$1bn into the GTel mobile network over the next few years. In July 2008, VimpelCom said that it had acquired a 40% stake in GTel-Mobile for US$267mn. State-owned GTel and subsidiary GTel TSC hold the remaining 51% and 9%, respectively, although the Russian operator is considering buying a further 9% from its Vietnamese partners and has pre-emptive rights to do so. An MIC official confirmed that GTel had asked permission to supply GSM-based mobile services and that the Ministry was working on the necessary formalities, adding that GTel will be licensed to use the 1800MHz frequency. Over the next five years, VimpelCom plans to invest US$1.8bn in GTel-Mobile. The new operator aims to have 20mn mobile customers by 2013. GTel is backed by Russian giant VimpelCom, which is said to be prepared to invest up to US$1bn into the GTel mobile network over the next few years. In July 2008, VimpelCom said that it had acquired a 40% stake in GTel-Mobile for US$267mn. State-owned GTel and subsidiary GTel TSC hold the remaining 51% and 9%, respectively, although the Russian operator is considering buying a further 9% from its Vietnamese partners and has preemptive rights to do so. However, MobiFone and Vinaphone appear to have taken early measures to counter loss of their market shares by the challenges from smaller operators announcing in December 2007, a decision to reduce call charges by as much as 25-28%. Accordingly, activation fees for postpaid mobile subscribers fell from VND136,364 to VND109,000, while monthly subscription charges remained the same at VND54,545. Call charges are being reduced by 20% on average for postpaid subscribers, while, for prepaid subscribers, the charges are being cut by nearly 30%. To date, rival operators have yet to mention a fall in their tariffs. 3G market 323 In October 2007, the Vietnamese Government granted permission for the MIC to license four 3G mobile network operators. In addition, five mobile operators will be granted permission to undertake mobile WiMAX trials. The decision followed more than a year during which the MIC was understood to be preparing the 3G licensing criteria. Applications for licenses from domestic operators are scheduled to be heard in 2008 but, at the time of writing, it was announced that the submission deadline would be postponed until January 2009. The winning bidders were announced in H109, including: Viettel, Mobifone, Vinaphone and cooperation between EVN telecom and HT-Mobifone. A number of major foreign operators have expressed an interest in investing in the development and deployment of 3G networks in Viet Nam. Japan’s NTT DoCoMo, which opened an office in Hanoi (its fourth overseas office) in September 2007, sees the annual 30% growth rate of the Vietnamese telecoms market as a big draw. These sentiments are similar to those expressed by French incumbent France Telecom. According to reports, both MobiFone and VinaPhone are expected to upgrade their infrastructure to 3G. MobiFone has completed a two-year 3G trial and is in the final stage of submitting a deployment proposal with Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi, the first cities deployed services in 2008, possibly in partnership with France Telecom. Meanwhile, VinaPhone concluded a similar trial with Nokia in Danang in August 2007. As for Viettel, S-Fone and Hanoi Telecom (HT Mobile), all three are understood to have requested UMTS licenses from the Ministry, while we would expect newcomer GTel to similarly be interested. It is unlikely that all six of Viet Nam’s existing mobile operators will win licenses. Indeed, the government looking to award four 3G licenses at the most. It has been proposed by the Radio Frequency Department that each of the four 3G licenses be granted 2x15MHz frequency division duplexing slots in the 1920-1980MHz and 2110-2170MHz bands, and a 5MHz time division duplexing slot in the 1900-1920MHz range. The 2010-2025MHz band is to be reserved for further UMTS applications, and the RFD envisages that each network will be granted a minimum 5MHz block. A lack of content and the cost and availability of 3G handsets will all present impediments to growth in Viet Nam’s 3G market, with we now estimating no more than 300,000 subscribers in the first year of 3G deployment. However, in spite of 3G, there is a real threat to growth in the Asia Pacific region as a whole, and it comes from WiMAX, which can cover huge distances and which is able to provide wireless internet access in the most remote towns and villages. Five operators are currently trialing WiMAX services; these include VNPT-owned Viet Nam Data Communications (VDC), in Lao Cai Province; Viet Nam Multimedia Corporation (VTC), in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh; FPT Telecom; EVN Telecom and Viettel. The latter three are testing both wireline and mobile WiMAX services. Fixed-Line At the end of 2007, Vietnamese fixed-line incumbent, VNPT, had 7.02mn fixed-lines at the end of 2007, out of a total telecoms subscriber base of 27.8m. The traditional fixed-line 324 services provided by VNPT amounted to 77% of the country’s total fixed-line subscriber base with 3.01mn customers using fixed wireless services provided by operators such as Viettel and S-Fone. By the end of 2008, the fixed-line customer amounted to 11.95mn, which is equivalent to a penetration rate of 14.1% (this data published by MIC). Unusually for telecoms markets in Asia, the Vietnamese fixed-line sector still offers growth opportunities. Viet Nam’s government is determined to increase the speed with which VNPT’s virtual monopoly in the fixed-line sector is broken. In December 2006, the Ministry of Posts & Telematics (now, the Ministry of Information and Communications) awarded a national wireline license to FPT Telecom. FPT’s fixed-line service will be based on a next generation network, which will support the provision of IP-based voice telephony, as well as high-speed broadband and IPTV. In 2008, FPT reportedly had 307.350 ADSL customers, with broadband services offered in 10 provinces. In addition to controlling the greater part of the local voice telephony market, VNPT was, until 2002, the only body authorized to offer long-distance and international services. However, both Saigon Postel (a privatized former subsidiary of VNPT) and mobile operator Viettel have since begun offering domestic and international VoIP services. VDC also introduced its own prepaid and post-paid VoIP under the brand name FoneVNN in 2003 and, in November of that year, became Viet Nam’s first provider of virtual private network (VPN) services. In an effort to expand its fixed-line customer base, VNPT chose Swedish vendor Ericsson to supply equipment to accommodate 200,000 additional fixed-line subscribers in Viet Nam’s central region. The deal is part of the second phase of a project to expand reach and capacity in the area. The first phase began in August 2006, when Ericsson won a contract to install 600,000 lines. In August 2008, it was reported that Viet Nam Telecom National (VTN), a VNPT subsidiary, planned to deploy Fujitsu’s high speed optical WDM as the transmission backbone of its next-generation network. VTN manages the domestic infrastructure of the incumbent stateowned operator VNPT. The company will deploy the WDM in a trunk-line network traversing approximately 3,000km in Viet Nam’s southern region, linking 21 provincial capitals. The network is scheduled to be completed by early 2009. Meanwhile, the MIC has pledged to develop the country’s fixed-line infrastructure, especially in rural areas. Behind the government’s plan to invest in fixed-line telephony is its desire to ensure a balanced and sustainable development of traditional voice telephony services alongside mobile telephony. One reason why the government aims to support the funding of telephony in rural areas is the difference in revenue terms between fixed-line connections in urban and rural areas; whereas an urban wireline subscriber will typically generate an average monthly revenue of close to VND50,000, this figure falls to VND30,000 in more remote parts of the country. 325 Furthermore, in an effort to regulate the fixed-line market, and ensure greater equality, the MIC announced plans to raise the cost of inter-province calling for all fixed-lines. At present, users pay VND120 (US$0.007) per minute, said to be below cost price, and the MIC has recommended raising this to VND200 (US$0.012) per minute. However, in order to offset the increase in tariffs, monthly subscription fees will be reduced to VND 20,000 from VND 27,000, which will hopefully attract a number of new customers. These changes are due to commence from 2009, with fixed-line rates set by the MIC until 2010. After 2010, operators will be given the freedom to set their own rates, although the MIC will continue to set the ceiling price in order to ensure there is a level playing field. Fixed Wireless With great advantages of cost for investment and time to deploy service in comparison with fixed line, fixed wireless has developed strongly. With providing of Gphone (VNPT) and HomePhone (Viettel) and Ecom (EVN Telecom) service packages has created competition between three providers more and more violently. There are many promotional programs of providers such as: cost for installing, service price, etc. If in March 2008 customer had to pay VND 149,000 for the initial cost and terminal equipment then in months of the end of 2008 this cost was zero. Further, customers were gave additional VND 150,000 in their account for monthly cost. Attracting of price is key factor for developing the great number of fixed wireless subscriber in past year. With the limited availability of traditional fixed-line infrastructure and around 70% of Viet Nam’s population living in rural areas, an increasing number of Vietnamese telecoms operators – including mobile operators – are introducing fixed wireless services. Facing high levels of saturation in already crowded urban mobile markets, fixed wireless access (FWA) has been seen by Viet Nam’s mobile operators as a way of supplementing revenue streams. Fixed wireless services can be launched on existing mobile networks and therefore incur few start-up costs. They are seen as a cost-effective way of providing telecoms services to lowincome households. Mobile market leader Viettel has around 70% of its subscriber base living in rural areas; this indicates the importance of the operator’s fixed wireless business unit. Viettel’s post-paid service, HomePhone, was launched in August 2007, a few days after its prepaid service. By offering special discounts, it is expecting to increase the number of customers subscribing to HomePhone. Although press reports have suggested that Viettel had over 13mn customers at the end of 2007, this figure is thought to include both mobile and fixed wireless customers. Discounting its 11.9mn mobile customers, this would leave Viettel with just over 1mn fixed wireless customers at the end of the year. Viet Nam’s fixed-line incumbent VNPT also offers a fixed wireless service called GPhone. The service operates over VinaPhone’s GSM network and is charged at fixed-line prices, making it affordable for low-income households. GPhone was launched in two phases, with services initially being launched in eight provinces and cities (including Lai Chau, Thai Nguyen, Ha Tay, Quang Nam, Quang Ngai, Can Tho, Hau Giang and An Giang) in June 326 2007, and the rest of the country during August 2007. Total GPhone subscribers reached 838,000 by the end of 2008. Fixed-line has developed slowly Service fixed-line seems too difficult to implement for enterprises outside of VNPT, because investing network is very large. Therefore, although Viettel has provided this service but Viettel doesn’t focus to develop it. FPT also has provided the fixed-line at the end of 2008 but mainly concentrated in the Hanoi City; number of subscribers are not many. Besides the cost of initial investment is large; the booming development of mobile networks has made users no longer attractively with fixed-line service and has caused this service in past two years developing quietly and slowly. Both economy and service side then fixed-line service is not able to compete with mobile service or fixed- wireless. Therefore the development of this service is very slow and depressed for service providers and users. However, to develop a persistent telecommunications infrastructure, the country shall continue to develop this network. In the past years, with the role as the decisive service provider of telecommunications, VNPT still has continued to invest and develop this network. But in the near future to ensure sustainable development of this service then the State management agencies should have priority for enterprises providing this service. Broadband According to Viet Nam’s Internet Network Information Centre (VNNIC), the number of internet users in the country had risen to 20.834mn by the end of 2008. This is equivalent to 24.04% of the total population. The number of internet users grew by 26% in 2007 and by 12.3% in 2008. Meanwhile, according to the VNNIC, the number of broadband subscribers rose by 150% in 2007 and by 58.3% in 2008. By the end of 2008, broadband penetration in Viet Nam had risen to 2.43%, up from 1.5% at the end of 2007. The rapid take-up of broadband services illustrates the growing popularity of such services within the country. However, it is notable that two-thirds of Vietnamese broadband subscribers are from Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. Holding back faster growth is the fact that ADSL services remain expensive and service quality remains poor, with slow speeds and unstable connections beyond the largest cities. Currently, the number of ADSL subscriber on the whole country reach over 2mn. Meanwhile, in the end of 2006, this figure online was around 500,000 subscribers. VNPT has held the dominant market share with over 1.2mn subscribers (about 60 percent); the next is Viettel with over 430,000 subscribers (hold 21 percent of market share); and FPT has over 285,000 subscribers (14 percent); remainder is other Internet service providers (EVN Telecom, SPT, OCI, etc.). 327 Broadband Internet market share others 6% FPT 14% VNPT 59% Viettel 21% The high level of PC ownership in Viet Nam means that demand for internet and broadband services is expected to remain strong. According to a survey conducted by Alcatel-Lucent, some 95% of Vietnamese households have access to a desktop PC, of which 16% are planning to purchase a laptop. Furthermore, growth in broadband demand is set to soar, as the Vietnamese government has been investing heavily in developing the broadband sector, announcing its commitment to inject VND100trn (US$6.3bn) in order to raise penetration rates significantly. Also, since joining the WTO, a number of high-profile global companies have relocated their operations to Viet Nam, and the employment of local staff has boosted incomes. The result has been that a significant number spend between US$10 and US$20 on their home internet bills, accessing multimedia content including games and downloads. Increased competition is also expected to encourage increased broadband usage. Internet sector in 2008 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 No. of Internet Users ('000) No. of Broadband Internet Subscribers ('000) In June 2007, VNPT increased its fixed-line network capacity with the help of Nortel Networks, in order to introduce enhanced broadband services and tap the great potential for further broadband growth. As a result of this investment, VNPT’s north-south fibre optic network capacity was doubled from 20Gbps to 40Gbps. The move formed part of VNPT’s plans to cater for 600,000 high-speed internet customers by the end of 2007. VNPT set itself 328 the conservative target of Source: VNNIC 1.5mn broadband subscribers by the end of 2009, a figure which was, in fact, surpassed in April 2008. In February 2008, VNPT invested US$1bn in broadband development in 2008. The investment was used to raise existing capacity to 200Gbps by mid-2008, rising to 300Gbps at a later date. Furthermore, the investment will fund the expansion of VNPT’s broadband network over the next two years, aimed at providing coverage in previously underserved regions. The new investments will also allow VNPT to connect a larger number of public high schools and government offices. In September 2008, VNPT launched a campaign to promote ADSL MegaVNN and fixedtelephone users. The promotion, which ran from September 16 to October 30, offered free ADSL modem and registration fees for new MegaVNN users and customers who shifted their indirect internet services to MegaVNN on fixed phone lines. Users were also given free internet accounts of VND100.000 (US$6) for two months. Customers using both MegaVNN service and fixed phones received a free service for three months. Along with its domestic internet services, VNPT provides data networking services to large corporate customers through a partnership with UK operator Cable & Wireless (C&W). In September 2008, VNPT subsidiary, Viet Nam Data Communication Company (VDC), announced an extension to its partnership with C&W for the delivery of IP VPN services. According to the agreement, C&W will offer on-net IP-based VPN services to VDC’s customers. As part of the deal, C&W has upgraded its point-of-presence (PoP) network node coverage in both Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. WiMAX In addition to expanding its ADSL network capacity, VNPT has been trialing WiMAX services in the cities of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh. This follows the operator’s earlier success with WiMAX trials in Lao Cai. However, VNPT is not the first operator to test WiMAX, with both Viettel and FPT Telecom having been carrying out similar trials. In addition to developing WiMAX services, Viettel is also a major provider of internet services to business customers. In June 2008, Viettel launched a major sales promotion campaign targeting businesses with leased-line services. The company said it would waive installations fees and user fees for a month for new leased-line subscribers. The total package would save customers VND60mn (US$3,680). In addition, the firm said it would give new subscribers a free web domain, ten e-mail addresses and a hosting service for one year. In March 2008, Saigon Postel Corporation (SPT) became the sixth operator to be awarded a WiMAX license by Viet Nam’s Ministry of Information and Communications. SPT is affiliated with mobile operator S-Fone. Three of the other five operators to have been awarded similar licenses also have links with the country’s mobile sector: VNPT is responsible for mobile operators VinaPhone and MobiFone, while Viettel and EVN Telecom also provide mobile services. Meanwhile, the fourth WiMAX licensee, Viet Nam Multimedia Corporation (VTC), offers mobile digital TV services among other broadcast services. Finally, FPT Telecom is already licensed to offer fixed-line voice and internet services; so 329 far, however, it has been licensed to only carry out trials of wireline and wireless WiMAX services. The connection between WiMAX licensees and the mobile sector also indicates that WiMAX has become more closely entangled in mobile wireless technology rather than under the guise of a fixed network wireless technology, in which it was originally conceived. SPT has indicated that it will test WiMAX services in the 2.3GHz to 2.4GHz band across Ho Chi Minh City and one of the neighbouring provinces of Tay Ninh, Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Ba Ria-Vung or Long An. The majority of other operators’ WiMAX trials are also being conducted in Viet Nam’s two major cities, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. Table 2: Viet Nam – WIMAX Trial lists WiMAX Operator License Pilot Launch Date Viet Nam Post and Trials carried out in Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City and Mar-06 Telecoms (VNPT) Lao Cai Viet Nam Multimedia Mar-06 Trials carried out in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City Corporation (VTC) To carry out trials of both wireless and wireline FPT Telecom Mar-06 WiMAX To carry out trials of both wireless and wireline EVN Telecom Jan-07 WiMAX Viettel Mar-06 To carry out trials of wireless WiMAX Saigon Postel Trials to be carried out in Ho Chi Minh City and Mar-08 Corporation one neighboring province In February 2008, the Ministry of Information and Communication awarded a license to CMC Telecom to provide internet services in Viet Nam. The operator, an affiliate of CMC Corporation, will reportedly be the 10th internet service provider in the country. CMC Corporation, which set up CMC Telecom in 2007, will offer its services through its partnership with CDMA operator EVN Telecom. The chairman of CMC Corporation confirmed that, if licensed, CMC would consider launching WiMAX broadband wireless services and stated that US chip manufacturer Intel would support deployment. However, in order to launch services, any WiMAX provider must currently be at least 51% state owned. Given that CMC is less than 51% state owned, it would require a change in regulations for it to be able to offer WiMAX services. Along with its license to provide internet access, CMC Telecom also gained two further licenses – one for online services provision and one for internet content provision. However, the operator is not currently allowed to build their own telecoms infrastructure. As part of its partnership with CMC, EVN Telecom is responsible for investing in transmission infrastructure, while CMC is to invest in IT and communications services, which will provide services for the customers of both groups. CMC has stated that its strategy is to focus on large corporate clients and governmental organizations, a strong sector for internet use in Viet Nam, as 89% of companies are estimated to have internet connections. 330 Meanwhile, in March 2008, ISP One-Connection Internet (OCI) launched an online advertising site; something it claims will give companies a chance to take full advantage of video and online advertising. As a concept, online advertising has not yet developed in Viet Nam, but it is a potentially large market, and one that OCI thinks will grow by 50% each year from 2008, potentially reaching VND600bn by the end of 2012. VINASAT-1 Satellite April 2008, Viet Nam has successfully launched the first VINASAT-1 satellite; Viet Nam Post and Telecommunications Group (VNPT) is the investor of the project. VINASAT-1 has confirmed the national sovereignty of Viet Nam in the space, helping to enhance the picture, prestige of Viet Nam in general, telecommunications and ICT in particular. Putting into operation the first telecommunications satellite, Viet Nam has been active in all of transmission plans, including modern transmission ways, improve national communication infrastructure, assuring safety and reliability for network infrastructure, telecommunications, facilitate the development of telecommunications services, radio, television, etc. With transmission capacity is over 10,000 voice channels and Internet, data transmission; over 120 television channels of high quality, VINASAT-1 will bring telecommunications services, Internet and television to remote areas, mountainous and islands, etc. where other transmission ways are difficult to deploy. Six months after it is putted into operation and commercial exploitation, at the end of December 2008, about 30% of VINASAT-1 capacity was used, provided services to a large number of customers using services such as VTV, VTC, HTV, VOV, MODEC, THAICOM. VNPT also signed a business contract with the business and exploitation company of WebsatMedia Satellite capacity to provide VSAT service in Indonesia and Singapore market. To expand the market, VTI has continued negotiating, signing the contract to provide services to some domestic and foreign customers. Competitive Landscape Competitor Analysis Table 3: Key Players – Viet Nam Telecoms Sector Company Name Ownership Viet Nam Posts and Telecommunications Government (100%) (VNPT) Viet Nam Telecom Services Company VinaPhone (100%) Viet Nam Mobile Telecom Services MobiFone Company (100%) Viettel Ministry of Defense Joint Venture: Saigon Postel and SLD S-Fone (consortium comprising SK Telecom, LG Electronics and Dong Ah Elecomm) Electricity of Viet Electricity of Viet Nam (100%) Nam (EVN Market Local, long-distance and international telephony, data, internet Mobile Mobile Mobile, local telephony Mobile Local, long-distance and international telephony, 331 Telecom) data, internet and mobile Joint Venture: Hanoi Telecom, Hutchison Mobile Telecommunications International (HTIL) Joint Venture: Global telecom Corporation – the Ministry of Public Security, Vimpelcom Gtel Mobile Mobile – the mobile provider has the second potion of Russia. FPT FPT Corporation Fixed-line In 2008, an important year of competition based on service: Hanoi Telecom In 2008, we can say that the main competition in the market is price. The telecommunications enterprises continuously reduce prices to attract customers, from the mobile service to fixedline and ADSL service. These promotional programs have created conditions for people with low incomes approaching with telecommunications services. However, the money promotion, 2-multiplied account, 2-multiplied account when new their SIM or account is activate; this causes a telecommunications market to be difficult to manage; number of virtual subscription is very much, appear many forms using the mobile phone to implement the disturbing behavior, illegal action. One light point in competition market between enterprises in the past year; besides the competition tool of price then value-added services in the mobile phone have been used for competition between enterprises. A range of value-added services has been provided and used as a competition tool between cellular networks. We can include the services such as Live-info of MobiFone, Data-safe and Ez-mail of VinaPhone, Yahoo Messenger service, ichat of Viettel. Competition in services will help to speed up their network deployment, infrastructure construction for 3G network, and create the fair-competition. We can say that 2008-year is an importance year in order to service became main competitive factor of the Viet Nam’s telecommunications market in next year, especially when tariff of telecoms services approaches the floor price. In 2008, cost for advertising is the largest in sectors in Viet Nam: According to a report on advertisement investment in 2008, the telecommunications industry sector was most expenditure for advertising with 71.28 million USD. Compared to 2007, cost for advertising of the telecommunications branch has increased nearly 50%. These numbers reflected correctly the situation of intense competition of telecommunications branch in the past year. Key Players a. Fixed-Line The provision of traditional PSTN-based telecoms services is still effectively under the monopoly of Viet Nam’s state-owned operator VNPT, which became responsible for the country’s telecommunications services in 1995. Its fixed-line services are run through a network of 61 local push-to-talks (PTTs), while the country’s two mobile operators are both subsidiaries of VNPT’s telecommunications business, Viet Nam Telecoms Services (GPC). 332 Viet Nam does not have an independent regulatory body – regulation and policy development now fall under the aegis of the MIC. The Viet Nam fixed-line user base grew by around 19% in 2008. There were thought to be over 11.95mn fixed-lines at the end of 2008, which is equal to a penetration rate of 14.1%. The country continues to have one of the lowest rates in the region, although ahead of Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines and India. Table 4: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview Country Taiwan Hong Kong Australia South Korea Japan Singapore China Malaysia Sri Lanka Viet Nam Thailand Indonesia Philippines Pakistan India Bangladesh b. Mobile Fixed-line 2007 (%) 58.6 54.0 46.5 46.2 41.6 41.5 28.2 16.3 13.5 13.2 10.9 7.0 4.4 4.1 3.4 0.8 Penetration Regional Rank 2007 (2006 Rank) 1 (1) 2 (2) 3 (3) 4 (4) 5 (5) 6 (6) 7 (7) 8 (8) 9 (-) 10 (10) 11 (9) 12 (11) 13 (13) 14 (12) 15 (12) 16 (-) Until mid-2003, the mobile market was nominally a duopoly. Both incumbent operators – MobiFone and VinaPhone – are indirect wholly-owned subsidiaries of VNPT. MobiFone introduced services at 900MHz in 1993, following a Business Co-operation Contracts (BCC) agreement with Comvik of Sweden, while VinaPhone launched its own GSM 900 network in 1996. During H203, Saigon Postel subsidiary S-Fone launched CDMA-based services, although it is only since the end of H104 that S-Fone has begun to acquire significant numbers of subscribers. Meanwhile, Ministry of Defense - run Viettel launched a very successful GSM network in 2004 and has already overtaken S-Fone to become the country’s second largest mobile operator (after the two VNPT-owned operators). Since then, Viet Nam has also welcomed the entrance of newcomers EVN Telecom (which operates under the E Mobile brand) and latterly Hanoi Telecom (which operates under the HT Mobile brand). E-Mobile and HT Mobile, which began commercial operations in February 2006 and January 2007, respectively, both offer CDMA-based services (although from April 2008 HT Mobile started to shift its customers to a GSM network offering). With a penetration rate of just over 40%, 333 Viet Nam continues to move up the regional rankings, and is now ahead of China and Indonesia. Table 5: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview Country Hong Kong Singapore Taiwan Australia South Korea Malaysia Thailand Japan Philippines Pakistan Viet Nam Indonesia China Sri Lanka Bangladesh India Mobile Penetration 2007 Regional Rank (%) (2006 Rank) 140.9 1 (1) 121.9 2 (2) 104.6 3 (4) 99.6 4 (3) 90.4 5 (6) 87.8 6 (5) 84.9 7 (9) 81.9 8 (7) 64.0 9 (8) 49.2 10 (12) 41.4 11 (13) 41.2 12 (11) 39.4 13 (10) 39.3 14 (-) 24.5 15 (-) 20.2 16 (14) 2007 c. Broadband Viet Nam’s internet user base more than doubled during 2003 and 2004 and, at the end of 2004, was estimated at nearly 5.87mn, representing penetration in excess of 7%. Indeed, during the course of the year Viet Nam leapfrogged both the Philippines and China in terms of internet take-up. There are now nine licensed internet service providers (ISPs) in Viet Nam and six internet exchange providers. By the end of 2007, internet user penetration had increased to 21.8%. In July 2003, VNPT subsidiary Viet Nam Datacommunications Company (VDC) launched the country’s first ADSL service in Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City and Hai Phong City. Broadband figures, according to the Viet Nam Internet Network Information Centre (VNNIC), are thought to have surpassed 1.2mn subscribers by the end of 2007, which is equivalent to a penetration rate of 1.5%. Table 6: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview Country South Korea Australia Hong Kong Taiwan Japan Broadband Penetration 2007 (%) 31.1 29.4 26.4 23.6 22.3 Regional Rank 2007 1 2 3 4 5 334 Singapore Malaysia China Thailand Viet Nam Philippines Bangladesh Indonesia India Sri Lanka Pakistan 21.5 6.3 5.3 4.0 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14= 14= 16 4.2 Viet Nam business envir onment industr y SWOT o Strengths - An increasingly competitive mobile sector - Impressive growth in mobile and fixed-line sectors during 2008, with subscribers up by 96% and 19%, respectively - WTO membership in 2007 makes Viet Nam a more appealing investment centre – stronger growth in broadband market could be the result of this o Weaknesses - Fixed-line sector remains largely monopolized, under the control of Viet Nam Posts and Telecommunications Group - Lack of key strategic investors in the sector’s main operators - Although communications are relatively advanced in the larger cities, many rural areas have little access to any telecommunications services o Opportunities - Increase in competition in the mobile sector will lead to a sharp rise in growth - Government approach to liberalization of the telecoms industry could see entrance of strategic investors such as NTT DoCoMo, SingTel and Telenor o Threats - Pace of deregulation is irregular - Nearly one-third of Viet Nam’s villages lie in mountainous areas and are limited access to telecommunications services; a delay in network expansion could slow potential growth in fixed-line, mobile and internet sectors - Number of inactive mobile subscribers is unknown in what is still a market that lacks transparency and reliable data 335 - Poor quality of ADSL services and relatively still high prices are combining to hold up broadband growth 4.3 The pr er equisites for stimulating the ser vices sector gr owth Business Environment Viet Nam continued to progress up the latest set of Business Environment Rankings for Asia, moving to 13th place from 14th in the previous quarter. The country now sits behind Indonesia and in front of Bangladesh. In this update Viet Nam receives a higher score in the telecoms market category, offsetting a weakened country risk score. The higher telecoms market score that Viet Nam receives in the current update is a reflection of increased mobile market penetration, which has seen stronger than anticipated growth. This has led to greater opportunities for growth than we had previously envisioned. The demand for mobile services has largely arisen out of lower tariffs, making the cost of services more affordable, and also the improvements to network coverage and capacity carried out by operators. Viet Nam’s telecoms market generally suffers from a lack of foreign investment, with inward investment currently allowed only under certain conditions. Despite the potential for future broadband growth, broadband penetration remains extremely low by regional standards, and investment in alternative technologies such as WiMAX is still in the early stages. Along with its relatively low telecoms market score, Viet Nam has a weak score in the regulatory independence category, which is a reflection of the high level of state control over the sector and its leading operators. The country’s accession to the WTO should result in further market liberalization, and we expect to see this start to happen either later this year, or more likely in 2009, when a 33.3% stake in MobiFone is sold to a strategic investor. Under WTO regulations and in accordance with the government’s commitments, foreign investors are allowed to participate in joint ventures with domestic companies. A minimum capital requirement has been set out, with VND1.6trn required for a network infrastructure deal, VND500bn for a project spanning at least two provinces and VND160bn for a project covering a single province. The more Viet Nam opens up to foreign investment, the more it can expect to attract further investment. FDI pledges amounted to US$47bn from January to August, beating the most optimistic projections. According to Phan Huu Thang, director of the Foreign Investment Agency, FDI disbursement also rose to US$7bn in the first eight months of the year and is expected to reach US$11-12bn for the full year. The top five investors in Viet Nam were Taiwan, Singapore, Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong, with top ranked Taiwan having 1,700 projects across various sectors and Singapore having the highest registered capital of US$10bn. Viet Nam has attracted high inflows of FDI in spite of its ongoing economic woes. Viet Nam’s primary attraction is as a base for manufacturing, due to its young – 50% of the 336 population is under the age of 25 – and increasingly skilled workforce. Compared to similar developing countries in the region, wages in Viet Nam are highly competitive, amounting to just two-thirds of those found in Indonesia, Philippines and China. With a population of 82 million, Viet Nam is also becoming an increasingly popular destination for market-based foreign investment due to its booming consumer market, with foreign retail brands seeking an early foothold. The government has taken extensive steps to attract foreign investment, in particular offering tax breaks and reasonable land rentals in priority areas. Infrastructure has also been improved with plans to build more highways, industrial parks and export processing zones. 2009 is expected to see MobiFone’s IPO take place, which has already received considerable attention from a number of global operators, given the potential for growth in the telecoms industry. With Credit Suisse hired as the operator’s financial advisor, around 10-15% stake is to be made public with a similar amount offloaded to a strategic investor. Market rumours, as cited by Dow Jones, suggest that a further 19% could also be sold off, leaving the government still with a majority shareholding of 51%. Table 7: Business Environment Rankings Country Singapore Japan Hong Kong South Korea Australia Malaysia Taiwan India China Pakistan Philippines Indonesia Viet Nam Bangladesh Thailand Sri Lanka Telecoms Market 62.5 67.5 57.5 62.5 57 60.5 52.5 72.5 63.3 57.5 47.5 52.5 47.5 52.5 47.5 31.5 Country Structure 96.7 66.7 76.7 70 83.3 63.3 63.3 35.7 35 39.3 46.7 42.7 33.3 30 32.7 56.7 Independence of Regulator 80 90 80 80 70 90 90 80 50 80 60 50 60 60 40 50 Country Risk 66.1 86 81.9 75 77.3 74.2 77.6 59.1 70.6 29.3 57.2 50.3 48.7 35.8 59.7 58.3 Telecoms Rating 74 73.4 69.2 68.8 68.4 67.7 64.5 62.6 55.4 52.5 50.6 49.4 46.1 45.6 44.6 44.5 Rank (Q408 Rank) 1 (1) 2 (2) 3 (4) 4 (5) 5 (3) 6 (6) 7 (7) 8 (8) 9 (9) 10 (11) 11 (12) 12 (10) 13 (14) 14 (13) 15 (16) 16 (15) 337 Table 8: Viet Nam: Regulatory agencies and their responsibilities Regulatory agency Responsibilities The Ministry of Information and Communications of the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam is the state administration in charge of policy making and regulatory matters in posts, telecommunications, information technology, electronics, internet, radio transmission and emission techniques, radio-frequency management and national information infrastructure, management of public services, as well as Ministry of Information of control over, on behalf of government and as stipulated by laws and Communications and regulations, the state capital in posts, telecommunications and (MIC) information technology enterprises. Its main functions include: No. 18 Nguyen Du Street, submitting to the government drafts of laws, ordinances, regulations, Hanoi, Viet Nam strategies and development plans on posts, telecommunications and - Tel: 00 844 39435602 information technology; - Fax: 00 844 38263477 • giving guidance in implementation of laws, ordinances, regulations, - E-mail: as well as development strategies and plans related to posts, tonghop@mic.gov.vn telecommunications and information technology; - Web: www.mic.gov.vn • regulating the access to and the interconnection between public switched telephone networks, specialized and private networks; • regulating the electronics and information technology industry development plan; • regulating charges and tariffs in the fields of posts, telecommunications and information technology; • planning, assigning and allocating radio frequency spectrum; controlling and monitoring radio frequency spectrum and radio equipment; organizing radio frequency, satellite orbit registration and co-ordination; • granting licenses in posts, telecommunications, radio frequency and internet; • regulating the quality of posts, telecommunications and information technology networks, plants, products and services; • regulating numbering resources, codes, domain names and addresses used in the fields of posts, telecommunications and information technology; • conducting international co-operation activities in posts, telecommunications and information technology; and, • inspecting all activities and settling all regulatory breaches in the fields of posts, telecommunications and information technology. Legislation and Market Liberalization The government’s telecommunications policy is formally set out in a decision of the Prime Minister, Decision No.158/QD-TTg of 18 October 2001, which ratifies Viet Nam Post and Telecommunications development strategy until 2010 and Orientation until 2020. The policy Decision provides a comprehensive range of sector development objectives and targets, along with key underlying strategies for their achievement. 338 The government’s telecommunications policy recognized the current weakness of the legal structure governing the telecoms sector. In line with its policy, the Government ratified the Ordinance on Post and Telecommunications (the ‘Ordinance’) on May 25 2002. The Ordinance took effect on October 1 2002 and has replaced the Decree No.109/1997/ND-CP dated November 12 1997 on network and telecommunications services. The Ordinance is expected to achieve two primary aims: the consolidation of the legal structure into a single law – which means the repeal of the set of contradicting laws and regulations – and to modernize the legal structure and address the important issues that arise in a competitive market structure. In 2008, this is a year that the Ministry of Information and Communications boosted building and improving the legal corridor, policy for developing ICT branch, MIC have assigned the mission to build five Laws to submit to Government and National Assembly: Frequency Law; Post Law; Telecommunications Law, Newspaper Law (amendment, supplementation) are implemented to submit National Assembly in 2009. On 28 August 2008, the Government of Viet Nam issued Decree No. 97/2008/ND-CP on management, provision and use of internet services, which replaced the former Decree No. 55/2001/ND-CP dated 23 August 2001. This decree is a breakthrough in internet management, encouraging internet application to every socio-economic field. This decree specifies the right to inform and responsibility for information posted in the internet of users, and allows all economic components to supply internet services. MIC built and submitted to Prime Minister to promulgate Decision no. 155/2008/QD-TTg dated on 01 December 2008 to get approved the plan on adjustment of local fixed telephone service charges; it helps people in rural areas approaching to cheaper charge levels when calling in local. Local fixed telephone service charges were reduced; it will be incentive the demand of people simultaneously it will facilitate telecommunication enterprise increasing revenue and expanding telecommunication market. The functions of Viet Nam Posts and Telecommunications (VNPT) are set out in Decree No. 51 (Decree No. 51/CP ratifying the Statute on VNPT). VNPT is active in all aspects of telecommunications, including infrastructure ownership and operation, and provision of telecommunications services. New rules on investment in telecoms, delivery: The Government issued Decree No 121/2008/ND-CP on December 3 on investment in the telecommunications sector and in delivery services. The regulation provides that foreign investors in network infrastructure projects must form joint ventures or co-operate with licensed domestic enterprises. According to the Decree, economical organizations with foreign capital, not discrimination against size of capital, if take part in post and telecom field must set up a Investment Project and have to obey all legal regulations on investment stipulated at this Decree. Investment project with foreign capital not discrimination against capital size; domestic investment 339 project to sep up network infrastructure to provide telecommunication service not discrimination against capital size; domestic investment project to provide delivery and telecom service without network infrastructure has capital from VND 300 billion and above must be appraised to get Investment Certificate. Subjects’ conditions of project set up network infrastructure in order to provide telecommunication service is investor must be state-owned enterprise or enterprise with state-owned capital gains ruled shares. If the investors are foreigners, they must joint venture with domestic investors who granted license for setting up network infrastructure and providing telecom service in Viet Nam and has capital rate in conformity with commitment to joint WTO of Viet Nam. The minimum capital of this type of project is VND 160 billions. Projects allowed setting up a public network infrastructure in national wide must have minimum registration capital is VND 1,600 billions. Investors should apply to get Telecommunication License after got Investment Certificate or Business Registration Certificate. The Decree stipulated in detailed conditions on investment in the field. For foreign-invested projects to provide telecommunications services not involving network infrastructure systems, foreign investors within three years of Viet Nam’s accession to the WTO who seek to provide basic telecom services or internet assess must form a joint venture with a licensed telecommunications services provider in which the licensed provider holds at least a 49-per-cent interest. A foreign-invested enterprise in the telecommunications sector must obtain two types of license, both a business registration certificate or investment certificate and a telecommunications certificate. Regulation The regulation of the telecommunications sector in Viet Nam falls under the responsibility of the Information and Communications (MIC), which fulfils the dual role of policy maker and regulatory authority. The key functions and responsibilities of the organization of MIC are outlined in the Government Decree No. 187/2007/ND-CP of 25 December 2007. The Decree sets out a wide range of functions and responsibilities under four different groupings. It is noted that MIC exercises regulatory control over both post and telecommunications. The MIC has responsibility for drafting laws, ordinances and policies on telecommunications, issuing decisions, directives, rules and technical standards, managing international treaties on telecommunications and radio frequency and issuing and revoking permits in accordance with regulations. The direct regulatory body over internet activities in Viet Nam is the Viet Nam Internet Network Information Centre (VNNIC). The VNNIC is a non-profit affiliation to the Ministry of Information and Communication, established under the Decision No. 02/2008/QD-BTTTT dated on 3 May 2008. The purpose of the VNNIC is to carry out the functions of managing, allocating, supervising and promoting the use of internet domain names, addresses and autonomous system numbers (ASN) in Viet Nam. VNNIC also provides internet-related guidance and statistics related to international activities on the internet. 340 The main goals for developing the telecommunications sector in Viet Nam are defined in the: - Post and Telecommunication Ordinance of 2002; - Decision 158/2001/QD-TTg of October 18, 2001, approving Viet Nam Post and Telecommunications development strategy through 2010 and vision to 2020. - Direction for IT and telecommunications development direction in the period of 2011-2020 (for short “take-off strategy”) dated on 7, July 2007. MIC built and submitted to Prime Minister to promulgate Decision no. 155/2008/QD-TTg dated on Dec. 01, 2008 to get approved the plan on adjustment of local fixed telephone service charges; it helps people in rural areas approaching to cheaper charge levels when calling in local. Local fixed telephone service charges were reduced; it will be incentive the demand of people simultaneously it will facilitate telecommunication enterprise increasing revenue and expanding telecommunication market. Beside promulgated policies, strategies, MIC amended and submitted to The Government and The Prime Minister the plans, schedules, and mechanism aiming at solving difficulties, direction, development process and meeting the urgent demand in the period of international integration. This is Viet Nam Radio, Television broadcasting MasterPlan to 2020; Project on licensing 3G; ICT MasterPlan to 2020; Particular mechanism, policy for training IT and telecommunications human resource. The Ministry completed and submitted to Government to issue Decree no. 121/2008/ND-CP dated on Dec. 03/2008 on the investment activities in posts and telecommunications sector; Decree no. 97/2008/ND-CP dated on Aug. 28/2008 on the management, provision and use of Internet service and electronic information to replace Decree no. 55/2001/ND-CP dated on Aug. 23, 2001; Decree No. 90/2008/ND-CP on August 26 dated August 13 on preventing spam e-mail. The issue of these Decrees confirmed the role of State management on posts, telecommunication and Internet fields Table 9: The list of documents approved by Government No. Number/ sign Date 1 121/2008/ND-CP 03/12/2008 2 155/2008/QD-TTg 01/12/2008 3 97/2008/ND-CP 28/8/2008 4 90/2008/ND-CP 13/8/2008 5 88/2008/QD-TTg 04/7/2008 Description The investment activities in posts and telecommunications sector Approving the plan on adjustment of local fixed telephone service charges On the management, provision and use of Internet service and electronic information on Internet On preventing spam e-mail Defining the functions, tasks, powers and organizational structure of the Radio Frequency Directorate of the Ministry of information and Communication 341 Besides building the big projects submitting to the National Assembly, The Government and the Prime Minister, MIC built and promulgated legal documents system under their jurisdiction to promote State management in IT and telecoms field, to guide and concretize the policies of State, facilitate for enterprise deploying service provision, developing market, ensure interests of users. Table 10: The list and Internet field promulgated by MIC No Number and sign of Date document of documents in telecoms Content Decision 02/2008/QĐ-BTTTT 5/3/2008 03/2008/QĐ-BTTTT 6/3/2008 12/2008/QĐ-BTTTT 31/3/2008 15/2008/QĐ-BTTTT 2/4/2008 23/2008/QĐ-BTTTT 16/4/2008 24/2008/QĐ-BTTTT 16/4/2008 30/2008/QĐ-BTTTT 6/5/2008 39/2008/QĐ-BTTTT 30/6/2008 40/2008/QĐ-BTTTT 2/7/2008 51/2008/QĐ-BTTTT 18/11/2008 Defining the functions, tasks, powers and organizational structure of the Viet Nam Internet Network Information Center (VNNIC). Promulgating the Working Regulation of the Ministry of Information and Communications Promulgating the Regulation on training of, and grant of certificates to, maritime radio station operators On amending and supplementing areas where public utility telecommunications services will be provided until 2010 Defining the functions, tasks, powers and organizational structure of the Directorate for IT Application Promotion Defining the functions, tasks, powers and organizational structure of the Information Technology Department Defining the functions, tasks, powers and organizational structure of the Digital Content and Software Technology Institute. Defining the functions, tasks, powers and organizational structure of the Viet Nam Computer Emergency Response Teams (VNCERT) Promulgating norm support to maintain and development of public utility telecommunication service supply period from 2008 to 201 Promulgating the Regulation on take-over test of quantity of public-utility telecommunications services, and payment and finalization of funds in support of the provision of public-utility telecommunications services during 2008-2010 Circular and Inter-Circular 11/2008/TT-BTTTT 26/12/2008 Guiding management on development support and maintain of public-utility telecommunications services for fisherman 342 No Number and sign of Date document 10/2008/TT-BTTTT 24/12/2008 09/2008/TT-BTTTT 24/12/2008 85/2008/TTLTBVHTTDL-BTTTT 18/12/2008 07/2008/TT-BTTTT 18/12/2008 06/2008/TTLTBTTTT-BCA 28/11/2008 05/2008/TT-BTTTT 12/11/2008 03/2008/TTLTBTTTT-BNV 30/6/2008 43/2008/TTLT-BTCBTTTT 26/5/2008 Content On national domain name “.vn” dispute resolution Guide circular on managing and using Internet resource. Guide on licensing, registering, implementing advertisement on news paper, computer network, publishing and checking and handling the infringe Guide some contents on activities providing information on blog in Decree no. 97/2008/ND-CP dated on Aug. 28, 2008 of Government on managing, providing, using Internet service and electronic information on Internet On ensuring infrastructure safety and information security in activities of post, telecommunications, and IT Guide some items of Decree no. 97/2008/ND-CP dated on Aug. 28, 2008 of Government on managing, providing, using Internet service and electronic information on Internet Guiding functions, tasks, powers and organizational structure of Department of Information and Communication of provincial-level People’s Committees; and Division of Culture and Information of district-level people’s committees. On the management and use of expenditures for information technology application in activities of state agencies. Directive 04/2008/CT-BTTTT 22/5/2008 03/2008/CT-BTTTT 6/5/2008 On the management and development telecommunications infrastructure On stepping up the use IPv6 address. Licensing and Spectrum Viet Nam’s Ministry of Information and Communications is responsible for all licensing related to telecommunications services. Prior to Viet Nam’s entry to the World Trade Organization (WTO), foreign telecoms operators were prevented from making direct investments in Vietnamese telecoms operations. Instead, Business Co-operation Contracts (BCCs) served as a transitional investment model in the telecoms sector and ensured that the provision of all telecommunications services was based on a system of revenue sharing with local companies. Since joining the WTO, however, Viet Nam’s MIC has allowed a number of local telecoms companies to enter into joint ventures with foreign partners for the provision of a wide range of communications services, including fixed voice telephony, packetswitched data transmission services, circuit-switched data transmission services, telex 343 of services, telegraph services, facsimile services and private leased circuit services. For nonfacilities-based services, the foreign capital contribution to these joint ventures must not exceed 51% of legal capital. Despite these continued restrictions which govern the licensing process, it will be permissible for wholly foreign-owned firms to provide registered telecoms services to Vietnamese organizations and individuals once Viet Nam has been a WTO member for two years. Furthermore, three years after Viet Nam’s WTO accession, foreign companies will be allowed to establish local branches and provide telecoms services, under the condition that the chief representatives of the branches reside in Viet Nam. In order to provide fixed or mobile voice telephony services for which no network infrastructure is required, foreign partners will be allowed to participate in joint ventures with Vietnamese telecoms firms, with a capital contribution of up to 51%, within the first three years of Viet Nam’s WTO membership. Once that initial three-year period has passed, foreign operators will be authorized to choose their own local partners when establishing joint ventures and will be allowed to raise their capital in the joint venture to 65%. Meanwhile, for virtual private network services and value-added telecom services, some large foreign partners will be permitted to independently provide those services using the network infrastructure of a local operator. Currently, foreign partners wanting to provide such services must select Vietnamese partners and contribute up to 70% of capital in the joint venture. For satellite services, the Vietnamese government is committed to expanding the number of companies involved in this field, but only once Viet Nam has been a WTO member for three years. In addition, the government will allow foreign partners to connect to underwater optical cable networks, of which Viet Nam has membership. Licensed companies will be authorized to sell transmission lines to international telecoms service providers, which have network infrastructure (such as VNPT, Viettel, EVN Telecom), and also to virtual personal network and IXB service providers such as FPT, VNPT, Viettel and EVN Telecom four years after the date of Viet Nam’s WTO membership. 4.4 Regulator y Developments In May 2008, it was reported that Taiwanese incumbent Chunghwa Telecom planned to set up a US$30mn ‘internet data joint venture’ with Viet Nam’s military run cellco Viettel. The move forms part of Chunghwa’s efforts to expand overseas. Chunghwa is Taiwan’s largest operator, leading each of the fixed-line, mobile and broadband markets by number of subscribers. Chunghwa has said that it hopes to expand its business through overseas investments as saturation at home leads to an inevitable slowdown. The operator has said it will use Viet Nam as a base from which to enter other countries such as Laos. In the new venture, Viettel will own a 70% stake while Chunghwa will take the remaining 30%. According to reports published in February 2008, Viet Nam’s Ministry of Information and Communications (MIC) is to hold an exam to select which networks are most capable of providing 3G services. All seven 2G licensees are eligible to enter. These are MobiFone, 344 VinaPhone, Viettel Mobile, S-Fone, EVN Telecom, HT Mobile and non-operational newcomer GTel. The MIC has said it will grant just four licenses. Incumbent VNPT, which runs VinaPhone and MobiFone, and military-owned Viettel, are both said to be worried about failing the test through a simple mistake. An MIC spokesman said that the cellcos will be tested on around 200 standards, which it is currently defining. The MIC has said that it will seek comments before compiling the official examination contents and will deliver the exam documents in March 2008. Competitors will then have two months to complete the exam documents. The ministry will consider the exam documents in May, and it will grant 3G licenses in Q208. According to the MIC, winners will be granted 15MHz of frequency division duplex (FDD) spectrum and 4MHz of time division duplex (TDD) spectrum. However, any winner that fails to launch 3G services (presumably by a set date) will be fined and risk having their frequencies withdrawn. In March 2008, VNPT announced that the country’s first commercial telecoms satellite would be launched on April 12 2008. Vinasat-1 is capable of handling more than 10,000 telephone, internet and data transmission channels. People living in remote areas will be among those to benefit most, as the satellite is expected to provide them with access to modern telecoms services for the first time. Speaking at a briefing ceremony in Hanoi on March 12, VNPT Deputy General Director Nguyen Ba Thuoc said the successful launch of the satellite would be of great importance to Viet Nam’s socio-economic development. Worth more than US$200mn, Vinasat-1 will be positioned at 132 degrees East Longitude in a geostationary orbit and has a design life of 15 years. 4.4.1 Fixed-Line Tariffs The Ministry of Information and Communications (MIC) plans to raise the calling rate for inter-province calling on fixed-lines, according to Viet NamNet Bridge. At present, fixed-line tariffs for inter-province calls are below cost price at VND120 (US$0.007) per minute, but the MIC plans on increasing this to VND200 (US$0.012) from 2009 until 2010. In order to offset the increase and attract a greater number of subscribers, monthly subscription fees will be reduced to VND20,000 from VND27,0000. After 2010, operators will be given the freedom to adjust tariffs as they see fit, and in accordance with market changes, although the MIC will set a ceiling price on charges. The regulator believes the changes in pricing will allow a greater number of subscribers residing in rural areas the ability to purchase phones. The fixed-line market is also to receive a boost in funding after the government announced a VND1,200trn (US$73mn) spending package to develop basic telecommunications services including public-access telecom centres. VNPT will receive VND744.3bn (US$45mn), Electricity of Viet Nam (EVN) Telecom will get VND337bn (US$21mn), Viettel Telecom with VND107.5bn (US$6.4mn) and Viet Nam Maritime Communication and Electronic Company (Vishipel) on VND10.6mn (US$600,000). The budgets of VNPT, EVN Telecom and Viettel Telecom will go towards 345 the maintenance of existing services and new landline installations for up to 599,000 telephones as well as maintenance and set-up of public telecom access stations comprising 4,500 existing centres and 366 new centres. 4.4.2. 3G Licenses According to reports published in February 2008, Viet Nam’s Ministry of Information and Communications (MIC) is to hold an exam to select which networks are most capable of providing 3G services. Participants will have until January 2009 to complete and return their documents to the MIC. All seven 2G licensees are eligible to enter. These are MobiFone, VinaPhone, Viettel Mobile, S-Fone, EVN Telecom, HT Mobile and non-operational newcomer GTel. The MIC has said it will grant just four licences in Q209. Incumbent VNPT, which runs VinaPhone and MobiFone, and military-owned Viettel, are both said to be worried about failing the test through a simple mistake. An MIC spokesman said that the cellcos will be tested on around 200 standards, which it is currently defining. According to the MIC, winners will be granted 15MHz of frequency division duplex (FDD) spectrum and 4MHz of time division duplex (TDD) spectrum. However, any winner that fails to launch 3G services (presumably by a set date) will be fined and risk having their frequencies withdrawn 4.5 Commitment of Viet Nam after WTO in telecoms sector Nearly one year after entering the WTO, the telecom market of Viet Nam has witnessed positive moves. In state management, the Ministry of Post and Telematics became the Ministry of Information and Communications in August 2007 to expand its wings to not only telecom and information technology but also television and broadcasting. This is the result of Viet Nam’s accession to the WTO, to perform its WTO commitments. The Ministry of Information and Communications is building and completing legal frameworks, policies and specialized regulations in order to develop new technology and services; encourage domestic and foreign firms to modernize the national information infrastructure. The common trend of Viet Nam’s telecom industry is developing the general infrastructure to develop information and communication services. As the state management agency in the information and communication sector, the Ministry will create a healthy, competitive environment and ensure harmony between the interests of the state and those of businesses and service users, as well as decrease the digital gap between urban and rural areas. The major mission of the ministry is creating a favorable environment for business, encouraging cooperation and healthy cooperation, maintaining sustainable development and harmonizing the interests of businesses and service users, urban and rural areas. Since 2007, Viet Nam has become a full member of WTO. This is a short description of commitments of Viet Nam and the roadmap to the telecom sector. 346 General notes: a "non-facilities based service supplier" means a service supplier which does not own transmission capacity but contracts for such capacity including submarine cable capacity, including on a long-term basis, from a facilities-based supplier. A non facilitiesbased supplier is not otherwise excluded from owning telecommunications equipment within their premises and permitted public service provision points (POP). Viet Nam has committed to maintain appropriate measures to prevent major suppliers of basic telecommunications services from engaging in anti-competitive practices. Viet Nam has also committed to ensure that interconnection with the network of a major supplier will be available at any technically feasible point under non-discriminatory terms and in a timely manner. Where a license is required for engaging in telecommunications business, the criteria must be publicly available. There will be an independent and impartial regulatory body overseeing the industry. Scarce resources, including spectrum, numbers and rights of way, will be allocated in an objective, timely, transparent and non-discriminatory manner. With the roadmap of commitment to open market after Viet Nam has become an official member of the WTO. The end of 2009, the telecommunications industry in Viet Nam will open the door to integration; the foreign investors to invest strongly in the telecommunications industry of Viet Nam. The telecommunications industry in Viet Nam still is attractive to foreign investors by its potential development. This is just the opportunity for the telecommunications industry in Viet Nam to reach a new high but also the challenges for the domestic operators in the face of strong competition in quality and service really. We make a summary of commitments of Viet Nam in the following table: 347 Table 11: Legal conditions for telecoms business in Viet Nam Activity Establishing commercial entity in Viet Nam providing: Basic telecom services (Voice telephone, packetswitched data transmission services, circuitswitched data transmission services, telex services, telegraph services, facsimile services and private leased circuit services. References to "basic telecom services" encompass local, long distance and international services for public and non-public use, through any means of technology (e.g. cable, wireless, satellites). "Private leased circuit services" involve the ability of service suppliers to sell or lease any type of network capacity for the supply of services listed in any other basic telecom service sub-sector. This includes capacity via cable, satellite and wireless network. Other services (videoconference services, video transmission services, excluding broadcasting, radio based services (including mobile telephone (terrestrial and satellite), mobile data, (terrestrial and satellite), paging, PCS, trunking) and internet exchange service (lXP). Timeline Non facilitiesbased services Conditions Upon accession, foreign investors permitted to establish joint venture with foreign capital not exceeding 51% of legal capital of the joint venture. Comments Must form joint venture with a telecommunications service supplier duly licensed in Viet Nam. Foreign investors in business cooperation contracts ("BCCs") will have the possibility to renew current arrangements or to convert them into another form of establishment with conditions no less favorable than those they currently enjoy. Three years after accession, No restriction on joint joint venture with foreign venture partner. capital not exceeding 65% of legal capital. Facilitiesbased services Must form joint venture with telecommunications service supplier duly Upon accession, joint venture licensed in Viet Nam. with foreign capital not exceeding 49% of legal 51% ownership gives capital will be allowed. management control over the joint venture. Establishing commercial entity in Viet Nam Non providing: facilitiesbased Virtual Private Network (VPN) services Facilitiesbased services Upon accession, foreign No limitation on choice investors permitted to of partner. establish joint venture with foreign capital not exceeding 70% of legal capital of the joint venture. Upon accession, joint venture with foreign capital not exceeding 49% of legal capital will be allowed. Must form joint venture with telecommunications service supplier duly licensed in Viet Nam. 349 Establishing commercial entity in Viet Nam Non providing: facilitiesbased Value added services (Value added services are: services electronic mail, voice mail, on-line information and database retrieval, electronic data interchange (EDI), enhance/value-added facsimile services, incl. store and forward, store and receive, code and protocol conversion and on-line information and data processing (including transaction processing) services.) Facilitiesbased services Upon accession, foreign investors permitted to establish BCC or joint venture with foreign capital not exceeding 51% of legal capital of the joint venture. (The WTO commitments refer to "legal capital" but this should probably be understood as a reference to "charter capital" throughout.) Three years after accession, joint venture with foreign capital not exceeding 65% of legal capital. Upon accession, BCC or joint venture with foreign capital not exceeding 50% of the legal capital will be allowed. Foreign investors in BCC will have the possibility to renew current arrangements or to convert them into another form of establishment with conditions no less favorable than those they currently enjoy. Must form joint venture with telecommunications service supplier duly licensed in Viet Nam. 51% ownership gives management control over the joint venture Establishing commercial entity in Viet Nam Non providing: facilitiesbased Internet access services (IAS) services Upon accession, foreign investors permitted to establish joint venture with foreign capital not exceeding 51% of legal capital of the joint venture. 350 Facilitiesbased services Three years after accession, No limitation joint venture allowed with choice of partner. foreign capital contribution not exceeding 65% of legal capital. Upon accession, joint venture with foreign capital not exceeding 50% of the legal capital will be allowed. on Must form joint venture with telecommunications service supplier duly licensed in Viet Nam. 351 4.5.1 The shareholding structure in providing basic services with facilities based model: With the Facilities-based services, upon accession, joint venture with foreign capital not exceeding 49% of legal capital will be allowed. Foreign partner must form joint venture with telecommunications service supplier duly licensed in Viet Nam. The 51% ownership gives management control over the joint venture. In fact, the Decree 36 of Viet Nam government, in which the maximum 30% of shareholders for foreign company are permitted, is still in effective. Viet Nam has not yet issued any decree updating the commitments of WTO. 4.5.2 The share-holding structure in providing basic services with non-facilities based model: With the non facilities-based services, upon accession, foreign investors permitted to establish joint venture with foreign capital not exceeding 51% of legal capital of the joint venture. The joint venture must be formed with a telecommunications service supplier duly licensed in Viet Nam. Three years after accession, joint venture with foreign capital not exceeding 65% of legal capital and there is no restriction on joint venture partner. With Virtual Private Network (VPN) service and value added services of telecommunications (email, Internet access, voice mail, facsimile service, etc.) are provided on network infrastructure that controlled by Viet Nam: Upon accession, joint ventures shall be allowed without limitation on choice of partner. Foreign capital contribution shall not exceed 70% of legal capital of the joint ventures. 4.5.3 Computer and related services: Officially abrogate the limitation that is still reserved in the Viet Nam-U.S Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA), according to this agreement then after 2 years from the date of WTO accession, 100 percent foreign-invested companies have the right to provide service for any objects, including Vietnamese organizations and individuals. After 3 years from the date of WTO accession, Viet Nam allows foreign companies establishing their branches and providing service in Viet Nam with condition that the chief of branch has to be a resident in Viet Nam. Allowing service provider according to contract shall be brought foreign labor (expert, engineer, etc.) into Viet Nam implementing contract. 4.6 Recommendations for development goals up to the year 2020 and Vision to the year 2025 for the Vietnamese ser vice sector 4.6.1 Telecoms development forecasts by 2020 352 Mobile Table 12: Current status and forecasts of Mobile Sector – 2005-2020 No. Description 1 No. of Mobile Phone Subscribers ('000) No. of Mobile Phone Subscribers/100 2 Inhabitants 3 No. of Mobile Phone Subscribers/100 Fixed Line Subscribers 4 No. of 3G Phone Subscribers ('000) 3G Market As % Of Entire Mobile 5 Market 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2020f 9.300 18.980 35.805 70.300 87.533 105.357 119.807 124.669 127.881 132.078 136.352 143.556 11 22 41 83,4 97 119 133,5 137 139 142 145 151 143,5 204,1 313 588 626,6 725,6 780,7 778,4 716,5 682,7 677,6 549,1 0 0 0 0 300 0 0 0 0 0,3% 1.360 1,3% 2.100 1,8% 3.050 2,4% 4.026 3,1% 13.208 10,0% 16.362 12,0% Mobile sector 2005-2015 160.000 160 140.000 140 120.000 120 100.000 100 80.000 80 60.000 60 40.000 40 20.000 20 0 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 f 20 10 f 20 11 f 20 12 f 20 13 f 20 14 f 20 15 f 0 No. of Mobile Phone Subscribers ('000) No. of 3G Phone Subscribers ('000) No. of Mobile Phone Subscribers/100 Inhabitants Competition and growth in 2008 boosted by the wave of tariff cuts, which have characterized recent operator strategies. Further cuts may follow in the near future, possibly resulting in a price war. Lower mobile service prices are expected to stimulate the growth of dual SIM ownership, as mobile users increasingly take advantage of special offers. Conversely, lower prices will also likely lead to increased customer churn and a higher number of inactive prepaid users. The investment in network expansion and improvement has also had a positive impact on service quality and coverage. Looking ahead, we now predict that Viet Nam will surpass the 100% penetration threshold in 2010. By the end 2015, we envisage a market of almost 136.4mn customers and a penetration rate of almost 147%. Continued growth over the next few years will be supported by a steadily expanding population, as well as by the arrival of increased competition and new investment. A number of major international investors – including Japan’s NTT DoCoMo, Norway’s Telenor, SingTel and France Telecom – have all shown an interest in bidding for a stake in Viet Nam’s second-largest mobile operator MobiFone. Furthermore, Russia’s VimpelCom is also expected to 353 30.147 21,0% expand its presence in Viet Nam, through its ‘GTel Mobile’ joint venture with the Vietnamese government. It should be remembered that the figures for the number of Vietnamese mobile customers are based on the assumption that the market contains a certain number of inactive prepaid users. Meanwhile, our forecast for Vietnamese 3G customer growth is based on the assumption that the first commercial deployments of 3G services will occur in 2009. In the early stages of 3G deployment, we do not expect consumer demand to be strong, and envisage just 300,000 subscribers by the end of 2009. The cost and availability of 3G-compatible handsets are expected to be the main obstacles to 3G growth in the early years of our forecast. However, the government has made 3G development a priority, and we believe that this will encourage stronger consumer demand in the latter years of our forecast. We predict over 16.4mn 3G customers at the end of 2015, which would equate to around 12% of Viet Nam’s mobile user base. It should be noted that these figures are lower than those predicted in our previous update. Fixed-Line Table 13: Historical Data & Forecasts of Fixed-Line sector 2005 No. of Main Telephone Lines in Service ('000) No. of Main Telephone Lines/100 Inhabitants 6.480 7,7 2006 9.300 10,9 2007 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2020f 10.028 11.950 13.970 14.520 15.346 16.016 17.848 19.347 20.124 26.144 13,2 14,1 15,7 16,4 17,1 17,6 19,4 20,8 21,4 27,5 Our current forecast for the growth of Viet Nam’s fixed-line market over the next five years is based on an estimate of 11.95mn fixed-lines at the end of 2008. This figure, which is equivalent to a penetration rate of just over 14.1%, is based on data provided by the country’s Ministry of Information and Communications (MIC). It is predicted that the market will expand, helping to raise penetration to almost 15.7 by 2009%. Continued fixed-line growth in Viet Nam has been encouraged by the 15-20% tariff cuts, which were applied to local fixed-line charges (Decision no. 155/2008/QD-TTg dated on 12 January 2008 of the Prime Ministry on approving the plan on adjustment of local fixed telephone service charges). The effects of these cuts are expected to continue being felt in the immediate future. However, towards the end of the decade, we predict a slowdown in fixed-line growth, as increased mobile substitution and the proliferation of VoIP services results in weaker demand for fixed-line services. The slowdown will partly reflect fixed-line saturation in urban areas of Viet Nam, while rural parts of the country will be more inclined to take up mobile telephony. Viet Nam’s fixed-line incumbent, Viet Nam Posts and Telecommunications Group (VNPT), is expected to retain its dominant position in the market. Despite this, traditional PSTN fixed-line subscriptions account for only around 77% of the total market, with the remaining fixed-lines being based on fixed-wireless services (using WLL technology). The proliferation of fixedwireless services, especially in rural, remote, deep areas where have difficult infrastructure 354 condition for developing telecoms network infrastructure, should contribute to a loss of market share for VNPT. Fixed line sector 2005-2015 25 20.000 20 15.000 15 10.000 10 5.000 5 - 0 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 f 20 10 f 20 11 f 20 12 f 20 13 f 20 14 f 20 15 f 25.000 No. of Main Telephone Lines in Service ('000) No. of Main Telephone Lines/100 Inhabitants Our current five year forecast envisages a significant slowdown in the rate of fixed-line growth, particularly in the latter years of our forecast. We predict that fixed-line penetration will surpass 21.4% in 2015, and increase only marginally to 27.5% by 2020. Internet Table 14: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts No. of Internet Users ('000) No. of Internet Users/100 Inhabitants No. of Broadband Internet Subscribers ('000) No. of Broadband Internet Subscribers/100 Inhabitants 2005 10.711 2006 14.684 2007 2008 18.551 20.834 12,7 17,2 21,4 210 517 1.294 0,2 0,6 1,5 2009f 24.123 2010f 26.385 2011f 27.563 27,1 29,3 30,2 2.049 4.757 8.236 13.037 2,43 5,3 9,1 14,3 24,04 355 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2020f 28.322 28.704 31.066 32.536 55.806 30,6 31,2 18.341 19.780 19,8 21,5 33,4 20.835 22,4 34,6 24.073 25,6 58,7 49.817 52,4 Internet sector 2005-2015 2015f 2014f 2013f 2012f 2011f 2010f 2009f 2008 2007 2006 2005 - 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000 No. of Broadband Internet Subscribers ('000) No. of Internet Users ('000) We issue Internet user and broadband subscriber forecasts based on figures in December 2008 published by Viet Nam’s Internet Network Information Centre (VNNIC). The VNNIC announced that there were just over 20.8mn internet users in Viet Nam at the end of 2008, which equated to 24.04% of the total population. According to the VNNIC, the number of internet users increased by over 26% in 2007 and by over 12% in 2008. We continue to believe that internet user growth in Viet Nam will remain strong over the next five years. We now predict that the number of internet users will expand by around 15.8% in 2009 and will rise to over 26.3mn by the end of the year. By the end of 2015, we anticipate a market of around 32.5mn Internet users, equivalent to over 34.5% of the population in 2015. The VNNIC has said that the number of broadband subscribers rose by over 58% in 2008, reaching 2.049mn. This new growth occurred on the back of the impressive 150% growth recorded in 2007. As with internet user growth, we continue to believe that broadband subscriber growth will be strong over the next five years. However, we now predict a lower rate of growth for 2008, envisaging growth of no more than 100% for the year as a whole. By the end of 2008, the whole market had almost 2.049mn broadband subscribers, which is equivalent to a penetration rate of 2.43%. Although growth in 2008 will be much lower than in 2007, we do not envisage such a steep decline in growth in 2009 and 2010. Indeed, for those two years, growth is expected to remain between 70% and 85%. By the end of our forecast in 2015, we anticipate a market of just over 24mn broadband customers; this is equivalent to a penetration rate of almost 20%. 356 The strong broadband growth in the latter years of our forecast will be supported by a number of developments, not the least of which is the considerable investment which is currently occurring in the broadband sector. However, increased competition is also expected to increase the affordability of broadband services. The arrival of new broadband service providers, some of them international operators, will help to stimulate competition. Furthermore, the launch of commercial WiMAX services – expected sometime in the next few months – should also help to boost broadband take-up. 4.6.2 Development goals up to 2020 and vision the year 2025 for Vietnamese telecoms sector General goal Telecommunications infrastructure reaches the objectives on the level of using service equivalent to the average level of the developed industrial countries, to keep with convergence trend of technology and Telecommunications - Information Technology - Communications service, to form the integrated networks with the broadband, large capacity, new technology, anywhere, anytime with any access devices; meet the need of information technology and communications application, to shorten the digital divide, ensuring the national security and defense. Build up, to develop national infrastructure with modern technologies being on a par with those of the regional advanced countries, which cover the whole nation with high capacity and quality; provide modern, diversified and abundant Internet and telecommunications services Provide Internet and telecommunications services with high quality, reasonable prices in order to satisfy all diversified demands of service users. Ensure IT application and ICT development for the information security in all areas: political, economic, social. Strengthen Internet and Telecommunications universalization in the whole nation; to shorten the distance of service between the different regions; give priorities on socioeconomic development; to ensure national security and defense. Specific objective Network development: Strengthening capacity of national backbone network, constantly expanding international transmission network (optical fiber transmission, satellite). To 2020, capacity of backbone network shall meet all applications, ensure the implementation of the new services. Develop mobile network which cover all provinces throughout the country, almost communes in the key region and many important highway. Develop national and international telecommunications network with high capacity, high security, high confidence, to multi-connect on the basic of combination of sea fiber optic cables, 357 land fiber optic cables, and satellite information system, to response demands for broadband services. Ensure that all ministries, industries, state administrative agencies, provincial and district authorities will be connected with Internet broadband and will be linked with the server of the Government; 100% of institutes, universities, junior colleges, secondary colleges, professional colleges, high schools will have high- speed Internet access; more than 95% of secondary schools, hospitals will be connected with the Internet by 2010. Develop fiber optic cable network to all provinces and cities throughout the country, but creating fiber-optic ring structure in the key regions in order to strengthen information security. Telecommunications services: Quickly develop, diversify and explore effectively types of telecommunications services, Internet with high quality, safety, security to serve the economic-social development, national security, defense, industrialization, and modernization of the country. Speed up the universal process of telecommunications services in the whole country. Besides the basic services such as fixed-line, mobile service, Internet, need to promote new services such as WiMAX, 3G ... and e-commerce, e-government service, public service, community service and other value-added services. Provide the whole society and consumers with modern, diversified and abundant Internet and telecommunications services with the prices less than or equal to the average level of the regional countries; to satisfy all demands for information in service of socio-economic development, national security and defense. Universalize Internet and Telecommunications services to all regions, parts of the country with higher service quality. By 2015, fixed-line density will reach around 21-22 per 100 populations, and mobile telephone density will reach around 144 - 146; broadband Internet subscriber’s density will reach around 24-26 for 100 habitants (100% of which will be broadband subscribers); Number of Internet users will account for 32.5 million people. Ensure the majority of staffs, employees, civil servants, teachers, doctors, students of universities, of college and vocational will have more chance to use Internet services. Speed up the universalization of Internet and fixed telephone services in the whole country. To ensure that 100 % of small villages (hamlets) will have access to pubic telephone, that 100% of communes will have access to public Internet services, that 100% of districts and communes will be connected Internet broadband by 2015. Ensure that 100% of population will have free access to obligatory services: such as information of firefighting, emergency medicine, emergency security Maintaining, expanding, ensuring information searching related natural calamity, rescue… 358 Telecommunications market: To bring into play all resources of the country combined with international cooperation to effectively expand and develop market. To develop a competition market, create conditions for all economic sectors to participate in activities of telecommunications, Internet field. Actively exploit the domestic market, while reaching out to operate on international market. There is initiative in international integration according to the committed roadmap of multilateral and bilateral agreements. Development orientations Development of market orientations a) Create conditions for all enterprise to participate in Internet and telecommunications in an environment of fair and transparency competition. b) Give priorities for all economic sectors participate in business and investment, and provide Telecommunications and Internet services, especially in the market of reselling services, of providing value-added services and Internet. c) Create favorable conditions for all Telecommunications and Internet enterprises to actively exploit domestic market while expanding their business and investment operations on international one. Orientation of network development a) Build up, develop Telecommunications and Internet infrastructure with modern and advanced technologies with high effective, security and confidence, which cover the whole nation. b) Enhance step by step the acceptance of the transferred modern technologies NGN (next generation network) according to private conditions of each enterprise in order to provide diversified services on the basics of uniform telecommunications infrastructure. c) Strengthen the formulation of optical cables network to communes in country-dweller and the high building in urban renewal. d) Quickly perfect external network by strengthening the utilization of fiber optical cables and increase the rate of optical cables under ground to improving services quality and urban sophistication. e) Develop broadband access network to ensure that Internet application will be improved such as: e-government, e-commerce, e-learning… 359 f) Speed up the development of mobile telecommunications network to reach mobile information network of third generation and the next ones. Orientation of service developments a) Prioritize the development of new services according to technological integration trends of radio, television, information technologies and telecommunications and of fixed and mobile telecommunications. b) Pay attention to develop mobile, broadband and value-added services on the basic of financed infrastructure. c) Quickly apply applications services on Internet such as: e-government, e-commerce, multimedia, entertainment, etc. d) Create conditions for the development of transmission, leased-line, VPN services for the purpose of exploiting maximized capacity, of ensuring the effective using of public telecommunications network. 4.7 Main solutions 4.7.1 Perfect legal environment, improve government’s management skills in Telecommunications and Internet a. Perfect legal environment -Renew and update the system of relevant legal documents and law on Telecommunications and Internet to exploiting domestic resources, and create a competitive environment of fair and transparency. -Promulgate Telecommunications Law, Radio and Frequency Law. -Build up and promulgate regulations on information security. -Build up and promulgate legal documents aim at concretizing related Telecommunications and Internet in the promulgated e-transaction Law and information technologies Law. b. Raise the effectiveness of the State management capacities -Keep improving state management in Telecoms and Internet area from Central to locality, focus on building, improving and completing ability of agency who manages directly telecoms, radio frequency, Internet and information safety and security. -Hold training course and developing the human resource who do state management tasks at Central level and locality corresponding requirements of competing and integrating 360 period. Give priority to Chief Information Officer (CIO), ICT high ranking specialist training course. - Guarantee the implementation of investing project programs in time with a good quality to accomplish infrastructures, work conditions; and improve capabilities of government administration organizations on telecommunications and Internet in center and local areas, which is suitable to their functions and tasks. - Deploy standardize working process (ISO) mission, speed up the task of applying information technologies to administrating government on telecommunications and Internet. 4.7.2. Build mechanism of policies and implementation laws to develop inner force, and promote competitions in fields of telecommunications and Internet: a) License supporting telecommunications and Internet services: - Plan the number of businesses supporting network infrastructures based on ensuring principles: develop a healthy market, create a good condition for enterprises to accumulate capitals, maintain and expand their business; make use of the available infrastructures of telecommunications and Internet, improve the performance of using the investing capital of the government; have an effective and economical usage of the telecommunications resources and national resources. - Give out mechanisms and policies of licensing in a suitable way and encourage companies to take part of reselling their services, supporting value added services, Internet services based on network infrastructures invested; develop infrastructures of inside region networks to supply services of accessing in large bandwidths, connecting computer networks; use available infrastructures (cable television, information on electric wires, so forth..) to support telecommunications and Internet services and associate with other services. b) Price, fee and cost: - Re-balance telecommunications and Internet service prices base on cost and supply and demand relationship. Step by step change the service prices which are lower than their costs to guarantee effect of firm business in an international competition, integrating… - Gradually change connection fee and channel rental fee between firms based on cost. Determinate clearly portion in telecommunications service supplying in connection fee. - Respect self price decision right of telecommunications and Internet firms. Avoid pricing intervention by administrative methods. Government only decides prices of public services, and market restrain that have affection to market penetration of other firms. - Gradually renovate cost and permission fee systems. Using telecommunications and Internet resource (frequency, digital warehouse, domain name, Internet address) following 361 economical resource wasting avoiding principles and simultaneously do not increase excessive firms' manufacturing and business cost. c) Standard and quality of networks and services: - Strengthen building standards in telecommunications and Internet area to correspond Viet Nam law, international general rules. - Strengthen management of quality of telecommunications and Internet networks and services in the form of pronouncing such quality on the basis of standards which are compulsorily or voluntarily applied by telecoms and Internet companies. - Strengthen management of quality of terminals, radio information equipment and other equipment that may interfere with radio information in the following forms: pronouncement of standard satisfaction, standard verification, mutual recognition arrangement (MRA), and management of electro-magnetic compatibility (EMC). d) Connecting and sharing telecoms and Internet infrastructure: - Consider permitting enterprises to apply specific mechanisms in respect of investment and tendering in urgent circumstances, in order to ensure the capacity of network connection among enterprises. - Build and promulgate provisions on public telecoms network connection for facilitating the signing and performance of connection agreements among enterprises. - Build and promulgate criteria for evaluating network capability and economic and financial mechanisms which serve the performance of connections and resolution of disputes among enterprises. - For several services of not high competitiveness, consider the application of nonsymmetric management mechanism in connections, in order to promote competition and facilitate new enterprises to join the market. - Encourage the sharing of telecoms and Internet infrastructure, including: location of terminals, transmission equipment, cable tubes, cable tanks, cables, fiber cables, antenna posts, back-up home wares and other means. - Facilitate telecoms enterprises to lease infrastructure of other sectors, such as television, electricity, to establish a network that provides telecoms and Internet services. - Gradually research and consider the application of a number of special mechanisms in certain localities under certain conditions: roaming for the sake of public duties, national security and safety; local loop unbundling for promoting competition and facilitating service users. 362 d) Telecommunications and Internet Resource: - Plan telecommunications and Internet resource based on investment guarantee, economic and efficient usage. - Give priority to plan and distribute resource for new technologies and services such as next generation Internet, mobile information and communication, wide band wireless telecommunications, etc. - Research and experiment new resource system such as Ipv6, ENUM... to satisfy the requirement of fast development of networks and services. - Gradually study and apply methods of remaining number portability, domestic and international long distance carriers pre-selection to increase competition and user benefit. e) Information security guarantee: -Build and complete regulations telecommunications network and Internet. of security guarantee and safety in - Build, improve and complete ability of emergency system, computer breakdown overcome, and network criminal preventing. - Apply cryptography technologies and technique solutions for transactions on telecommunications networks and Internet. g) Enforcement of laws: - Strengthen the inspection and supervision of Internet and telecoms business activities, especially relating to network connection, charges and service quality. - Apply economic, technical and professional measures, concurrently enhancing intersector coordination, in order to prevent effectively any smuggling in telecommunications and Internet. - Strictly deal with organizations and individuals who have committed any breach of laws in telecommunications and Internet, in accordance with current legal provisions. 4.7.3. Promote competitiveness of enterprises, satisfying requirements of international integration: a) Reform the organization, management and business activities of enterprises: - Establish strong telecoms corporations and companies which possess modern technologies and management skills, high specialization and trade in different areas but focus on telecommunications and Internet. 363 - Telecoms and Internet enterprises should obtain self-determination in their business activities and have an independent accountancy. The mechanism of cross-balance between telecoms and Internet services shall be revoked thereafter. - Gradually separate the performance of public duties and the performance of business activities of an enterprise on the basis of altering connection charges and carrying out the Public Telecoms Service Fund. - Pushing the equalization of enterprises under the approved work plan, firstly focusing on value added services, Internet and mobile telecommunications. - Encourage and facilitate equities telecoms and Internet enterprises to list their shares in domestic and foreign securities markets. b) International relationship: - Improve the cooperation efficiency in current international projects - Search for opportunities and apply new cooperation forms in accordance with investment law and international treaties in Viet Nam. - Looking for foreign investment environment in accordance with international law and treaties. c) Attract investment: - Reform companies, correct production structures, invest and create good conditions for companies to run good business, drastically improve the ability of accumulation from inner capital used for re-invest in development. - Intensify attracting investment from inner sources: credit capital … Concentrate on capital from equitizing corporations, provide services for citizens to participate in invest in telecommunications and Internet. - Keep on attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) to develop telecommunications and Internet. - Utilize the Official Development Assistance (ODA) to apply telecommunications and Internet in rural areas, highlands, islands and to serve other public activities. d) Human resource development - Apply special treatment policies to management, economic, and technical experts to meet growing demands for international integration and competitiveness in the field of telecommunications and Internet. 364 - Adjust labor structure in telecommunications and Internet sector in the direction of hiring external service and labor so as to make use of social labor force and enhance productivity in telecommunications and Internet. e) Science and technology promotion - Focus on application research and technology transfer, contributing to the reform of production and trading organization, increase of labor productivity and competitiveness of telecommunications and Internet businesses. - Formulate funds for science and technology to facilitate research, manufacture and testing of new technology. -Research, deploy and test advanced technology in the area of telecommunications and Internet to catch up with and raise the competitiveness of Vietnamese enterprises. 4.7.4. Reform provision methods of public telecoms services in an international economic integration and competitive environment - Progressively promote activities of Fund for public telecoms services to specify commercial transaction and public benefit tasks of enterprises in the period of competitiveness and international economic integration. - Formulate and effectively develop the program on provision of public telecoms service in 2006-2010 in order to step-by-step improve service univerlization level and narrow the gap of telecommunications and Internet development among regions and areas throughout the country. - Establish special set-ups in charge of providing telecommunications and Internet services for Party and State agencies to keep raising service quality and information safety for Party and State’s specialized network, meanwhile, facilitate enterprises in doing business and strengthening their competitiveness and capacity for successful integration. 4.8 The missions of Ministr ies, Br anches, enter pr ises Ministry of Information and Communications: - Be responsible for deployment arrangement and implementation supervision of the Planning. Based on the country’s economic development, submit Prime Minister the contents to be updated and adjusted. - Formulate and submit the Government or issues according to the given authority policies and mechanisms to successfully realize the Viet Nam’s Telecommunications and Internet Development Planning towards 2015, including: 365 o Develop documents guiding the issues related to telecommunications and Internet in on the promulgated E-transaction Law, Information Technology Law and Ordinance on Post and Telecommunications. o Develop documents guiding the issues related to telecommunications and Internet after Law on Telecommunications, Radio and Frequency are promulgated. - Study and complete organizational structure of State management agencies in charge of telecommunications, wireless frequency, Internet and information safety to meet the requirement of the period of competitiveness and integration. - Base oneself on the market development period; submit to Primer Minister Decision on licensing telecommunications and Internet provider. - Develop and complete emergency investment method to provide integration of public telecommunications network. Ministries of: Finance, Planning and Investment, Interior, Public Security, Transportation: - Ministry of Finance coordinates with Ministry of Information and Communications to develop new fee management mechanism and direct implementation of equalization in telecommunications and Internet enterprises; Release finance regulation for Public-utility Telecommunications service Fund’s operation; Ensure budget’s arrangement and allocation to implement operation and use of telecommunications and Internet in Party and government’s organizations. Release finance mechanism to provide telecommunications and Internet service to Defend and Security’s operations. - Ministry of Planning and Investment coordinates with Ministry of Information and Communications to implement main investment projects; develop emergency investment and bidding mechanism in order to connect public telecoms networks. - Ministry of Interior presides and coordinates with Ministry of Information and Communications to complete country management structure of telecommunications, Internet and develop enterprise’s reform method. -Ministry of Public Security presides and coordinates with Ministry of Information and Communications to release security rules of network and information in the area of telecommunications and Internet. - Ministry of Transportation presides and coordinates with Ministry of Information and Communications to release guideline for development of telecoms transmit line to follow roads, bridges, culverts, pavements to raise implementation process. 366 Other ministries, provinces, cities: - Ministries, provinces and local areas are responsible for assigned functions and coordinate with Ministry of Information and Communications to implement development scheme dependent on particular trait of industry, local area. - People’s committees belonging to the government develop local posts and telecommunications scheme and implement Telecommunications and Internet development scheme in the local area. 367 CHAPTER 5: PUBLIC SERVICES 5.1 The r ationale for developing public ser vices in Viet Nam 5.1.1. Development Background Viet Nam began its socio-economic reforms in 1986. Under the ongoing reforms, the country has recorded major achievements. Its economy grew fast at an average of 7.65 percent in the 1991 to 2007 period, and was able to maintain at 6.23 percent in 2008 (Statistical Yearbook 2007). The performance of Viet Nam is also impressive in terms of improvement of its people’s living standard and implementation of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). To implement 8 MDGs of the United Nations (UN), Viet Nam has identified its own 12 concrete development goals (VDGs) to be accomplished by the year 2010. So far, some of MDGs have been reached or exceeded. One of the utmost important development goals which were accomplished early is poverty reduction. Within a ten-year period, from 1993 to 2004, the number of population who lived below the national poverty line was brought down from 40.4 millions to 19.7 millions, or 60 percent of the number of poor households (MDGs Report, 2005: 14). Basic education in Viet Nam has been considerably improved over the past decade and the Government continues to express its vigorous commitments to renovating the national educational system, in which primary and kinder-garden levels were given special attention. Vietnamese become healthier as people can afford more nutritious diet and get access to fresh water and better medical and hospital treatment. The National Health Development Strategy in 2001-2010 of Viet Nam also recognized the importance of health not only as a component of people’s quality of life but also as a decisive factor for socio-economic development. According to the latest Human Development Report of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), in 2005, Viet Nam Human Development Index was recorded at 0.733, ranking 105 within 177 countries with data; life expectance at birth of Vietnamese people was 73.7 years old; adult literacy rate was 90.3 percent; and combined primary, secondary and tertiary gross enrolment ratio was 63.9 percent (UNDP, 2007). While successful socio-economic development is often thought to bring about, in fact, it could not have been attained without an impressive performance of the Vietnamese public services. 5.1.2. Conceptualization of “Public Services” in Viet Nam Historical legacy has an important effect on the current development of public services in Viet Nam. Before the reform period, the Government controlled almost all kinds of services activities, ranging from commerce, finance, tourism, and transportation to education, health, administrative service, security and defense. Virtually, all these services could be considered as “public services” since they are provided by the public sector and not for profit aims. Private sector was 368 allowed to take part only in the supplies of some final demand services in a micro scale and with little impact on the economy as a whole. Since the beginning of the reforms, the Government has lifted its ban on the private sector in the supplies of an increasing number of services. Some of the latter such as the security guard, airlines, and notary service, until recently, were still strictly regarded as the realm of state activities. At the same time, the Government still keeps control in a form of state monopoly or oligopoly on the distribution of a number of other services such as rail transport, postal services, telecommunication, broadcasting, publications, and utilities services on the reasons of their strategic importance to national socio-economic development and security. The context of transition from the commanded toward market economy with a socialist orientation is extremely important since it explains the ongoing debates on how to understand the term “public service” (dịch vụ công) in Viet Nam. On the one hand, a free market economy needs minimal role of state in the production of services and goods when there is a “market failure.” On the other hand, socialist orientation tends to emphasize the necessity of state in the provision of public services where it finds out many areas of “market failure.” In a research of the Central Institute of Economic Management (CIEM, 2007: 3), public services in Viet Nam are defined as “activities which are provided by the State or private sector authorized and facilitated by State to meet basic demand of the society for the benefit of the society and community.” There are two popular ways to classify public services in Viet Nam. According to the nature of service providers, public services can be categorized into three groups (CIEM, 2007: 4): i) services directly provided by state organizations such as security, defense, public healthcare, and the above residual service group; ii) services provided by non-government and private organizations under the authorization of the State such as construction of public projects (housing, roads, and other public facilities); and iii) services provided in a form of public-private partnership such as in the provision of basic services such as education, healthcare, water, sanitation to the local community by the coordinating efforts among government agencies, NGOs and community organizations. This research, however, adopts a narrow classification that sees public services in Viet Nam including two major categories: i) social and community services such as education, healthcare, cultural and sport services; and ii) public administrative services such as state management. Table 1: Comparison of UNSO National Accounts and Viet Nam’s Level-I Sub-Sectors UNSO National Accounts Categories Services: Public administration Community, social, personal Viet Nam’s Classification System Level-I Description 1 State management, security & defence, compulsory social protection Education and training Health care and social works 2 3 369 4 5 6 7 Recreational, cultural and sport activities Party, mass and association activities Community services Some services of international organization and associations Source: Based on GFSS, 2006: 156. 5.1.3. The Roles of Public Services in Economic Growth and Socialist Orientation A sound public sector is a key to rapid economic growth in Viet Nam over the past two decades. In 2007, total six public service groups (state management, education and training, health and social works, recreation-sport and culture, and community and personal service) account for around 9.97 percent of GDP growth of the entire economy. State management, and education and training play a key role in this contribution of the public sectors. 370 Table 2: Contribution of Seven Public Services Group to GDP Growth in 2007 GDP in 2007 (VND billion at 1994 Growth constant prices) 2007 461443 8.48 12196 8.22 15467 8.69 6568 7.99 2515 7.99 491 8.15 Rate in Contribution (% of growth) 100 2.64 3.36 1.42 0.54 0.11 Total Economy State Management Education and Training Health and social works Recreation, Sport and Culture Party, mass and associations Community and personal services 8860 7.92 1.91 Source: Author calculated, based on GSO. 2008. Statistical Yearbook 2007. (Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House). A number of researches have pointed to a strong positive correlation between economic development and a system of sound governance, and the fact that countries with effective institutional and administrative system and socio-political stability tend to perform better in terms of economic growth and attraction of foreign investment. Over the past years, Viet Nam has implemented public administration reforms to better deliver administrative services. Given the extensive reach of the state into the Vietnamese society and economy, and public administrative system is involved in almost government activities, better public administrative service performance surely has a spill over effect on the performance of other sectors of the economy. Yet, growth alone is not enough for a country to reach its goals of development. Important public services such as healthcare and education, community services, cultural and sport services, have made significant contribution to the improved quality of economic growth through the amelioration of people’s well-being and human resource development. When provided by the government at little cost to users, these public services are akin to a transfer equal amount of money to all individuals or households, and become extremely important for the lower- and middle-class Vietnamese. Moreover, specific services such as public health insurance and pension are essential to a majority of Vietnamese civil servants and government officials including those who are retired. Table 3: Effects of Public Services Development on Socio-economic and political Development Public Services State Management Education and Training Economic Development X X 371 Improvement of Improvement Social Well-being Political Life X X X of Health and social works X Recreation, Sport and Culture Party, mass and associations Community and personal services 5.1.4. Challenges for Public Service Development X X X X X Public services of developing countries are often subjected to numerous criticisms for a lack of infrastructure, absenteeism of service providers like teachers and doctors, poor quality, corruption, non-transparency, favouritism, and discrimination. In a number of studies, these are usually attributed to the lack of resources and the conflict between the needs of equity and those of efficiency. The 2004 World Development Report (WDR) “Making Services Work for Poor People” (WB, 2004: 3, 4) has highlighted four roots of the public service delivery problem: i) The government misallocates resources - that is the government spends on the ‘inappropriate’ goods or for the ‘inappropriate’ people; ii) The resources do not reach frontline service providers – or even if resources are correctly allocated, due to ‘leakages,’ money doesn’t reach its ultimate needy destination; iii) The incentives to provide the services may be weak even when the money reaches the service provider, raising the problem of accountability and monitoring; and iv) There is a demand side failure – that is, people may not avail of the services provided to them, raising the problem of awareness and participation. On their flipside, Vietnamese public services unveil their shortcomings that risk to weakening the foundation of the socio-economic development. There is a major concern on the quality of public services that is still afar from consumers’ expectation. For example, despite pronounced reform efforts by the Government, the quality of the Vietnamese education is still regarded as poorest in Southeast Asia (CIEM, 2007: 31). There is an extreme lack of adequate access to basic health care services, as reflected in terms of insufficient number of doctors and nurses, patient beds and clinics. In its current condition, Vietnamese hospital service is not well prepared to respond effectively to emergencies such as a large-scale outbreak of tropical epidemic such as diarrheal, tuberculosis, and malaria. While the need for making public services work for poor people is immense, there is also a question over not only the shortage but also the outreach of public services to the poor and marginalized people. So far, despite large propagation campaigns by the government, the ideas of “public administrative services” and “civil servants” have failed to penetrate into the Vietnamese society and bureaucratic system. Administrative procedures are still complicated and time-consuming; and administrative staffs often act as service grantors rather than service workers. While have made a big step forward over the past years, Vietnamese public services still have a long way to go to meet the Vietnamese society’s demand and expectation. At the same time, major transformations are taking place within the public services in terms of providers, service structure, supply mode, governance, and regulations toward greater 372 liberalization. Over the past few years, the government calls for socialization (xã hội hóa) in the delivery of public services, accepting the provision of a number of public services by private sector and NGOs to reduce the burden of public finance. New forms of state – non state coordination in public services delivery such as public-private partnership (PPP) have been experimented under the assistance of international NGOs and development agencies. Liberalization process has made the understanding of public services as the realm of non-profit public activities become less relevant. The opening of domestic service market presses the providers of services such as education, healthcare, sport and culture and publication to feel the need of commercialization to sustain. Meanwhile, some service providers can still exploit their monopoly and oligopoly status granted by the state during the transitional process to earn profit at the expense of society. 5.2 Cur r ent State and Development Issues of the public ser vices in Viet Nam 5.2.1. The size of public sector is decreasing in the transition process, and it has fallen down to a miniscule level Numerous studies often look at the dichotomy between the “welfare state” and “welfare society” to categorize the size of the public sector. Public sector tends to have large size in a welfare state which relies on the central and local governments in the delivery of public services, whereas it has a small size in a welfare society which put more weigh on local communities and non-profit organizations. The current size of Vietnamese public sector is miniscule comparing with all above thresholds for categorization. The share of government consumption in GDP in 2007 is merely 6.07 percent (Statistical Yearbook 2007). These shares of OECD countries in 2006 are 20.5 percent on average (Appendices, Table 1). This share of East Asian developmental states such as Singapore is 14.2 percent in 2006 (APEC, 2007). In transitional economies of Eastern Europe, for example, while on a steady decline, the share of government consumption in GDP still stood at 14 percent for Bulgaria and 23 percent for Croatia in 2001 (Gunalp and Dincer, 2005: 4). In fact, although government consumption in Viet Nam has increased over the past years together with economic growth, its share of GDP is on a declining trend, showing that this increase is not on par with the growth speed of the economy and expansion of other economic sectors. Table 4: Growth of Government consumption and share of government consumption in GDP Year 2003 2004 2005 Growth of Government 7.19 7.77 8.2 consumption share of government 6.32 6.39 6.15 consumption in GDP Source: GSO. 2008. Statistical Yearbook 2007: 82, 83. 373 2006 8.5 2007 8.9 6.03 6.07 By government expenditure, the size of Vietnamese public sector is close to the level of developed welfare society. The average share of government expenditure in GDP of OECD countries is 44 percent in 2006, within the range from highest share of Sweden (55.5 percent) to the lowest share of Australia and Ireland (34.4 percent). In 2006, this share of Viet Nam stood at 31.6 percent. While government services are the largest component of government expenditure in OECD countries, government expenditure for public socio-economic services in Viet Nam account for around 52.5 percent of total government expenditure or merely 10.4 percent of GDP (Statistical Yearbook 2007). However, it is important to note that over the past years, there is a clear emphasis on the education and health services in the government budget. During 20002006 period, the already largest shares of education and healthcare sectors in total government expenditure on social and economic services increased 5.26 percentage points and 2.66 percentage points respectively while the share of the other sectors experienced a decline (Table 5). Table 5: State Budget Expenditure on Social and economic services (current prices) 2000 VND Service sectors billions % Education and Training 12677 28.44 Healthcare 3453 7.75 Population and family planning 559 1.25 Science, technology and environment 1243 2.79 Culture and information 919 2.06 Broadcasting and television 717 1.61 Sports 387 0.87 Pension and social relief 10739 24.09 Economic services 5796 13.00 General public administration 8089 18.15 Total 44579 100.00 Source: GSO. 2008. Statistical Yearbook 2007. 2006 VND billions 37332 11528 489 % 33.70 10.41 0.44 2540 1874 1184 956 22157 14212 18515 110787 2.29 1.69 1.07 0.86 20.00 12.83 16.71 100.00 % Change in 2006-2000 5.26 2.66 -0.81 -0.50 -0.37 -0.54 -0.01 -4.09 -0.17 -1.43 In terms of labor, public sector in Viet Nam employed 9 percent of the total workers of the economy in 2007 whereas the share of seven key public services is 8.97 percent (Table 6). The latter share has made a big jump of 2.67 percent in the 2000 to 2007 period. In a comparison, among OECD countries, Japan has the lowest public employment share at 8.1 percent in 2002 whereas Sweden and Denmark have highest shares at 30 percent and 29 percent respectively. However, there is no employment benchmark for the efficiency of the public sector. In Singapore, government employees represent only 2.7 percent of the total employees in 2005 (APEC, 2007). Table 6: Number of Workers in Some Key Public Services 374 2000 2007 Thousands (%) Thousands (%) Entire economy Entire Service sector 37609.6 8199.8 100.00 21.80 44171.9 11535.8 100.00 26.10 Change of quantity in 2000-2007 (%) 17.5 40.7 State Management Education and Training Health and social works Recreation, Sport and Culture Party, mass and associations 376.1 995.1 225.6 132.0 63.9 1.00 2.65 0.60 0.35 0.17 793.2 1356.6 384.3 136.4 192.9 1.80 3.07 0.87 0.31 0.44 110.9 36.3 70.4 3.3 201.9 Community and personal services(*) 492.7 1.31 896.7 2.03 82.0 Total of public service workers 2285.4 (*) Note: Including activities Source: GSO. 2008. Statistical Yearbook 2007. 6.08 of 3760.1 8.52 hired household 64.5 workers 5.2.2. Education and state management are two largest sectors and the size of education and health services is still modest. Six key public services (state management; education and training; health and social works; recreation; sport and culture; party, mass and associations; community and personal services) account for 9.1 percent of the GDP. Education and training, and state management are two largest sectors, representing 5.37 percent of GDP. While utilities supply sector still increases in its GDP share to match with economic growth, there is an emerging concern on the declining trend of other sectors. The share of education sector in GDP has fell from 3.21 percent to 2.6 percent in the 2005-2008 period. Similarly, the GDP share of healthcare and social works sector fell from 1.48 percent to 1.25 percent (Table 7). Part of it is due to the more rapid expansion of non-public services area. Part of it may be due to the complacency in the early accomplishment of some MDGs in the end of the 2001-2005 period, leading to the shift of resource allocation from development to growth purposes. This becomes an alarming trend when all key public service sectors experienced a slowdown in 2008 (Table 8) due to general economic difficulty and when maintaining growth of the economy becomes the top priority agenda. Table 7: GDP Ratio of Some Key Public Services (% at current price) Services State Management Education and Training Health and social works Recreation, Sport and Culture 1986 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 3.34 2.50 1.34 0.50 3.32 2.72 1.56 0.46 3.62 2.62 1.59 0.55 2.73 3.36 1.36 0.58 2.75 3.21 1.48 0.50 2.74 3.15 1.45 0.47 375 2.74 3.04 1.41 0.45 Prel 2008 2.77 2.60 1.25 0.41 Party, mass and associations 0.17 0.10 0.10 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.13 Community and personal services 2.17 1.86 2.18 2.23 1.94 1.93 1.92 1.94 Sources: Year 1985: GSO. 2004. Statistical Figures of Viet Nam in the 20th Century (Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House). Period 1986 – 1999: GSO. 2000. Socio-economic Development Figures of Viet Nam 1975-2000 (Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House) and GSO. 2006. Viet Nam: 20 Years of Reforms and Development. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House). Years 2000, 2005, 2006, 2007: GSO. 2008. Statistical Yearbook 2007. (Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House). Year 2008: GSO. 2009. Quarterly Report I. Hanoi. Table 8: Growth of GDP of Some Key Public Services (% at constant 1994 price) Services Period 19962000 2.58 5.63 5.57 7.80 12.49 20012005 5.49 7.46 7.40 6.20 5.94 2006 2007 2008 1996-2008 State Management 7.57 8.22 6.38 4.79 Education and Training 8.42 8.68 8.04 6.96 Health and social works 7.84 7.99 7.67 6.79 Recreation, Sport and Culture 7.68 7.98 7.83 7.19 Party, mass and associations 7.42 8.05 6.92 8.77 Community and personal services 8.02 5.95 7.25 7.91 6.31 7.02 * Data from CIEM, 2009: 11. Viet Nam’s economy 2008. Financial Publishing House. Source: Year 1985: GSO. 2004. Statistical Figures of Viet Nam in the 20th Century (Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House). Period 1986 – 1999: GSO. 2000. Socio-economic Development Figures of Viet Nam 1975-2000 (Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House) and GSO. 2006. Viet Nam: 20 Years of Reforms and Development. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House). Years 2000, 2005, 2006, 2007: GSO. 2008. Statistical Yearbook 2007. (Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House). Year 2008: GSO. 2009. Quarterly Report I. Hanoi. A major concern for the development cause is a modest size of the education and healthcare sectors even though total public and private spending on education and health is not small relative to the economy. The GDP share of education and health services is 4.45 percent in 2007 before falling to 3.85 percent in 2008. The average education and health spending respectively as share of government expenditure and as share of GDP is 27 percent and 6 percent for AsiaPacific, 25 percent and 6 percent for low-income countries, and 29 percent and 8 percent for middle-income countries in 2000 (WDR 2004: 33). Share of public education and health spending is equivalent to 15.86 percent of total government spending and 5 percent of GDP for Viet Nam in 2006 (Statistical Yearbook 2007), but fortunately this small share is currently offset by private spending. 376 5.2.3. State organizations are still dominant players in the delivery of public services but the number of non-state service providers has increased significantly State organizations including hospitals, schools, administrative organizations and other agencies are the main providers of public services in Viet Nam. However, there is a marked trend showing an increase in the number of providers, including non-state providers, of public services. Newly emerged private companies contributed a large part to this increase. At the same time, private investment, including foreign investment, on public services has increased considerably. Private investment in key sectors such as education and training, and healthcare and social works, has increased 6.8 and 2.2 folds respectively in the 2000-2007 period (Table 10). Table 9: Number of Enterprise Providers in Some Key Public Services 2000 2006 2006/2000 (%) 2006 (%) Service Sector 24085 82904 344.2 100 Education and Training 77 785 1019.5 0.95 Health and social works 25 256 1024 0.31 Recreation, Sport and Culture 120 491 409.2 0.59 Community and personal services 173 670 387.3 0.81 (*) Note: Service sector includes production and distribution of electricity, gas and water (*) Source: GSO. 2008. Statistical Yearbook 2007. Table 10: Investment on some Key Public Services (1994 constant price) VND billions 2000 Total (1) (1) – (2) 2007 Total (3) 0 Service State Management 2980 Public sector (2) 2980 Education and Training 4633 4347 286 9584 7628 1956 Health and social works 1769 1652 117 4609 4348 261 Recreation, Sport and Culture 2141 1187 954 4230 3609 621 Party, mass and associations 605 568 37 1005 573 432 12134 44863 9006 Community and personal services 15531 3397 Source: GSO. 2008. Statistical Yearbook 2007. (3)- (4) 9320 Public sector (4) 9320 0 35857 5.2.4. Labor productivity in key public services changes unevenly, showing a strong impact of capital investment rather than technological improvement Productivity of the entire economy and the service sector increased dramatically in the 20002007 period. However, productivity in six key public services changed unevenly. Productivity of 377 education and recreation, sport and culture sectors has experienced a big jump with 26.3 percent and 52.1 percent increase respectively whereas productivity in other sectors fell down. Among the sectors in which there is a productivity decline, health and social works experienced a smallest change of -2.3 percent whereas largest fall happened in the activities of party, mass and associations (-48.7 percent). Table 11: Labor Productivity in Some Key Public Services (1994 Price, VND thousand per capita) Sector 2000 2007 Entire economy 7,276 Entire Service sector 13,785 State Management 21,326 Education and Training 9,027 Health and social works 17,491 Recreation, Sport and Culture 12,129 Party, mass and associations 4,960 (*) Community and personal services 12,789 (*) Note: Including activities Source: GSO. 2008. Statistical Yearbook 2007. of 10,477 16,147 15,376 11,401 17,091 18,438 2,545 10,752 hired Change in 2000-2007 (%) 43.6 17.1 -27.9 26.3 -2.3 52.1 -48.7 -15.9 household workers The magnitude of productivity change in Viet Nam is big comparing with the world average productivity changes in public services and with the common understanding of stagnant productivity change in the public services. For example, during 1990-1995 and 1995-2003 periods, productivity of the government services in the US decreased slightly by 0.8 and 0.4 percent (Bosworth, 2009). During the 1990-2001, productivity of the education, healthcare and social and community services in OECD countries experienced a change of 0.1 percent, 0.1 percent, and -0.2 percent respectively (Wolfi, 2005). While a stagnant productivity change in public services of the developed country can be blamed for little change in technological application, a large change in productivity of key public services in Viet Nam is produced by change in capital investment on the corresponding sectors. 5.2.5. Although public services have reached certain input objectives, their outcome impacts are still very poor Public administrative institutions in Viet Nam often have reports on the numbers of documents received from the citizens vs. the number of documents that get the reply, and the result is little surprised: almost one hundred percent of documents submitted have been answered. Yet, there is few statistics on how helpful these answers are, if citizens are well instructed to re-submit their documents to get approval, let alone how much money and how many people are needed in order to have these answers. In community services, almost all households in the community signs in 378 the commitment to build a “cultural family” (gia đình văn hóa ) and this has little effects on the cultural environment of each committed family and the community. In other words, although public services in Viet Nam have recorded a marked output achievement, they perform poorly in terms of outcomes. Short of outcome impacts, the quality and importance of public services in socio-economic development are questionable. According to the surveys on citizen satisfaction of public services in Ho Chi Minh City, the number of people who said to be satisfied with eight surveyed service sectors has fell down by almost 19.5 percent on average in 2008 comparing with 2006 (Table 12). For example, respondents claimed the prolongation in administrative procedure in the issuance of land entitlement, and construction permit, inattentive explanations by doctors and the red-tape of the civil servants in general. There is also often-said problem of lack of service providers, technology and facilities, typically in public administration, education and healthcare services, and the dysfunction of service delivery in such sectors as electricity, urban sewage and urban public transportation. In addition to poor outcome impacts, quality of public services in Viet Nam is also a target for improvement. Another issue is high “leakage” in the public sectors. Leakage occurs in all stages, from investment on public projects and programs because of corruption and embezzlement, and in fee collection due to fraud by both consumers and collectors. Table 12: Citizen Satisfaction of Public Services in Ho Chi Minh City Services 1 2 Satisfaction (%) No answer (%) Non-satisfaction (%) 2006 2006 2006 2008 74,8 Primary education 2008 23,2 2008 2,0 84,7 60,2 8,3 36,9 7,1 2,9 78,2 68,9 14,0 25,3 7,8 5,8 78,9 49,5 13,6 44,6 7,5 5,9 78,2 58,5 10,6 36,9 11,1 4,6 6 Issuance of 74,1 construction permit 7 59,3 Issuance of land title 57,4 9,4 34,3 16,6 8,3 39,2 7,8 41,4 32,9 19,4 8 49,5 17,7 44,6 27,7 5,9 3 4 5 Garbage collection Health Bus services Notary Tax collection 54,5 http://www.tuoitre.com.vn/Tianyon/Index.aspx?ArticleID=289895&ChannelID=3 Updated on 27/11/2008. Public services in Ho Chi Minh City: People are less satisfied 379 5.3 The pr er equisites for stimulating the development of public ser vices in Viet Nam 5.3.1. Government should make public services work for the people The 2004 WDR “Making services work for the poor people” points to the essential role of government in public services, especially in the developing world. Government is important in the delivery of public services for two reasons. First, government intervention is necessary to overcome market failures that lead to the sub-optimal amount of public services, sort of “public goods,” produced and consumed from society’s standpoint. Second, government intervention is justified for the reason of equity. In other words, assuring equal access to basic public services such as health, education and utilities and reducing the gaps in outcomes between poor people and those who are wealthier, are a responsibility of government. The responsibility of the governments to provide better public services can be discharged in many ways, for example, fostering economic growth, increasing public spending, applying technical interventions, and regulating the services. In concrete actions, governments demonstrate their responsibility by building and staffing schools, subsidizing hospitals, regulating water and electrical utility companies, building roads, operating pension fund, and providing cash transfers to individuals and households etc (WDR, 2004: 32, 33). The Vietnamese government has not made full use of its role in the delivery of good public services because of a limited size of the government as measured in aspects highlighted above such as pubic spending, government consumption, public sector’s investment, and labor absorption. Resource constraints are often cited as a major cause among others and limited resource makes the governments use it for purposes that they think politically wise. In that case, quite often, the governments tend to focus on their close allies – that is urban areas will be prioritized over the countryside, and wealthier and middle class will receive the benefits before the poor and indigenous people. This will certainly result in a relative degradation of the quality of life of citizens at the bottom rang of the society in the course of economic growth, and become a long-run potential cause of social unrests. Of course, while economic growth alone is not enough, it is crucial for the development of public services. For one simple reason, economic growth will generate more wealth for the state and society to invest in public sectors. The association between income and basic public services such as health and education outcomes works both ways: more income leads to lower mortality and more children completing primary school; better health and education can lead to higher productivity and incomes. The 2004 WDR points that among low-income countries, 10 percent more income per capita is associated, on average, with a 6.6 percent lower child mortality rate and a 4.8 percent higher primary school completion rate. At low income levels, a relatively small difference in per capita income can produce large differences in outcomes. But it is important to reiterate that income is not the whole story: at any given income there are wide variations in achievement. With average incomes of just under $300 per capita in the 1990s, Viet Nam had a 380 child mortality rate of about 40 per 1,000 in 2000 and Cambodia of 120 (WDR, 2004: 35). Government policy thus has a stronger influence on the improvement of incomes than the distribution under the market forces. 5.3.2. A clean and effective state system is essential for delivery of public services Increased public spending may make improvements of public services possible, but improvements will fall short if spending is made unwisely – that is, as said above, the government misallocates resources, or the resources do not reach the frontline beneficiaries. Similar situations can happen with other kinds of service-supported government activities such as regulations and technical interventions. The government intervention is just necessary condition on the one hand, but the government quality is sufficient condition on the other hand to affect public service improvements. Like other developing countries, in Viet Nam, red-tape, corruption, rent-seeking, favouritism, non-transparency, cumbersome bureaucratic system, low technology and unskilled staffs are often said to affect the quality of public services delivered by the government, putting barriers to citizens’ consumption of public services and causing misallocation of government resources. In 2008, Transparency International Corruption Index ranked Viet Nam 121st within 180 countries for 2.7 points out of ten points for having least corruption (Transparency International, 2008 corruption perception index). 69 Yet, major efforts have been made to fight against corruption within the state system. The Vietnamese government has also made other great attempts to improve the efficiency and to strengthen the effectiveness of the public administrative system through the reforms. The Comprehensive Public Administrative Reforms in 2001-2010 has identified four areas of reforms which are institutional reforms, reforms of administrative organizational structure, development of civil servants, and reform of public finance. The results of current public administrative reforms (PAR) are encouraging. For example, at the central level, the organizational structure of the government has been streamlined and the tasks of ministries have been oriented better toward macro management, instruction and supervision. There is an ongoing process of decentralization that provides local provinces with greater autonomy in the fiscal matters and in the design of the form and focus for public services to fit the demand of local people. The oversight roles of national assembly and people’s council have been strengthened to increase the accountability and reliability of government policies. There is also a so-called “One stop shop” mechanism to reduce waiting time for citizens. In a recent move, the Prime Minister has signed Decision 48/2009/QD-TTg announcing Plan for application of technology information in state organizations during the 2009 to 2010 period. According to this plan, a number of public administrative services such as issuance of business license and investment license, issuance of 69 Vietnam ranks below China PR (72nd and 3.6 point) but higher than Indonesia (126th and 2.6 point), the Philippines (141st and 2.3 point), Laos (151st and 2.0) and Cambodia (166th and 1.8 points) in Southeast Asia. 381 permits for the establishment of branches, representative offices, construction, land entitlement, vehicle registration, and submission of petition and complaint etc… will be made available online. 5.3.3. High salary gives civil servants incentive to provide better public services Since the beginning of the Doi Moi, the average salary of Vietnamese government officials and civil servants has not increased on par with the rise in the average income of the society and not been able to catch up with the rise of price index. In Viet Nam, there is a sharp difference between a decent salary and a much higher income of civil servants and government officials. Low salary is one of the main causes to the lack of incentive from civil servants to serve their customer citizens. From human resources side, low salary creates a “brain drain” in the public sector. Low salary plus less severe punishment may instigate civil servants and government officials to create red-tape and harassment in order to get under-the-table money. It also affects the exercise of duties by civil servants, let alone their ethics. In the remote and mountainous areas, low salary is a major discouragement of work decisions and absenteeism of nurses and doctors in the hospitals, and teachers at schools can seriously disrupt the delivery of basic public services to already marginalized people. Low salary in the public sector of Viet Nam is often attributed to main sources. First, there are a large number of salary earners. According to an article published two years ago, around 10 percent of the Vietnamese population is paid from state budget and this proportion is remarkably high comparing with other countries. Second, there is a constraint in government budget. The above article pointed out that if the average monthly salary in the public sector increases by 450,000 VND, the increase amount is equivalent to 95 percent of total state budget (vietbao 25/12/2007). Table 13: Monthly Average Income in state sectors (current price) Sector 2007 (thousand VND) State Management 1561.3 Education and Training 1832.9 Health and social works 1899.6 Recreation, Sport and Culture 2098.4 Party, mass and associations 1344.1 Community and personal services 1987.8 Source: GSO. 2008. Statistical Yearbook 2007: 628 In Singapore, high salary plus strict punishment are important factors to reduce corruption in the state system. In Viet Nam, increase in salary may also help to break up the string that connects low income, corruption and low development level all together. It will help the government function more effectively and improve the quality and efficiency of government services. These are the bigger payoff not only for the government but also for the majority of tax payers. For example, higher salary may motivate inspectors in public utilities sectors such as water and 382 electricity to work better to reduce the “leakage” that cost the government billions VND each year. Similarly, higher salary may increase the responsibility in the doctors in public hospital and make people feel secure when they use cheaper public health services. 5.3.4. A healthy public finance system is essential to government expenditures and investment on public services Public finance system underpins the development of public services. Before the Doi Moi, under the classical socialist system, the overwhelming proportion of the economy is state-owned. The state exercised its control over the economy and society through central planning. Tax was small and inequality in the distribution of income was relatively slight. The objective of equality was achieved not by market-oriented mechanism such as differentiated taxation of income or wealth, but mainly by restricting wage differentiation and allocating certain consumer goods and services in a relatively egalitarian way. In the course of transition, the spread of private ownership and the market have produced significant changes. While the squeezing of wage differentials into a narrow band continues only for public employees, incomes in the private sector have distributed over a much wider range by the market (Lajos and Dethier, 1998: 31, 32). The state feels more difficult to sustain a completely free provision of public services, and to expand the public programs without enriching its coffer. Nor does it have rationale to restrict the consumption of every citizen within similar limited amount of public goods and services. The current socialist system in Viet Nam possesses a set of softer techniques for fulfilling the equality requirement. One of the techniques is to sustain state-owned enterprises and other organizations that would not have been viable under market conditions to ensure a largely free universal provision of education, health care, and other welfare services, which have a strong redistributive effect (Lajos and Dethier, 1998: 31, 32). This is complemented by differentiated taxation of incomes, to a lesser extent, consumption, and progressive rates for public service consumption. The ongoing reforms of the public finance system in Viet Nam focus on five pillars: tax system, state budget, financial status of public service providers, management of public properties, and management of official development assistances (ODA). Major successes have been achieved in each area, especially in terms of setting up a modern legal framework. For example, several important tax laws have been introduced over the past few years such as VAT law and income law. There are also the adjustments in public services fees to make them closer to the market prices and to sustain the business of public service providers. At the same time, the oversight role of the elected bodies such as the National Assembly and People’s Council in the allocation of government budget has been strengthened together with the activities of the State Audit Office which performs general financial inspection of bodies spending public funds. However, the switch away from the old kind of redistributive activity and the old public finance system has only partly and semi-successfully taken place. On the input side, there are too many loopholes in the collection of the tax and fees, leading to a large amount of income, wealth, and 383 consumption that evades taxation and fees by fraud. On the output side, there is a serious leakage in the public expenditures and investments before this money can reach to the targeted beneficiaries. Three years ago, scholars such as David Dapice already estimated that Viet Nam lost around 1 billion USD each year because of leakage in public investment (Viet Namnet, 20/10/2006). A strong and healthier public finance system in Viet Nam is thus necessarily a clean public finance system. 5.3.5. Effective and competitive entrepreneurial sector is the key provider of good public services Having said that the government should make public services work for the people does not mean making the government a direct provider of all public services. At present, state organizations are still dominant providers of public services in Viet Nam. Currently, there are two ways to unbundle state monopoly in the production and distribution of public services. The traditional way is to reform the state public service providers. One of the crucial tasks of the reform is separating public service delivery function from state administration and management function in state organizations. Public services are now provided by the “công ty cung ứng dịch vụ công ích” (my translation is “public service enterprises”) 70 and “tổ chức sự nghiệp nhà nước” (my translation is “state social service organizations/units”) 71 which are established under the umbrella of state organizations such as the government, ministries, people’s committee. According to Decree 10/2002/ND-CP and 43/2006/ND-CP of the Government, there are three types of state social service units: i) units that have no income and therefore are totally funded by the state; ii) units that have incomes sufficed to cover all regular operation costs and therefore are self-financed; and iii) units that have incomes only sufficed to cover partially regular operation costs and therefore are partially funded by the state. As soon as many state organizations are allowed to create their “social service units” whose operations spread into various areas, they unbundle the monopoly of existing service provider at least in the downstream and delivery activities if not the entire service chain. Social service units especially those self-financed are often organized and operate in line with the business model, looking for profits from user fees and competing with one another and with private sectors. Figure 1: Transformation of public service providers in Viet Nam 70 In such public “economic” services as gas, water, electricity supply, sewage, public transport etc but these sectors are not dealt within the scope of this report. 71 In such public “social” services as education, health, sport, culture etc 384 Joint stock company SOE Restructuring Commercialization Demonopolization Unbundling State monopoly Contracting Transfer of state management /socialization Public private partnership State guarantee or incentive Service contract Management contract Lease contract Public-private joint venture BOT agreement Joint investment Public private cooperation Source: Adapted from: International Labor Organization. 1999. Managing the privatization and restructuring of public utilities (water, gas, and electricity). International Labor Office: Geneve. p. 4 Another way also closely related is the so-called “xã hội hóa” (socialization) of public services. The approach of “socialization” of public services has started first with the public health sector, then spread into education and other sectors such as cultural, sport and recreational services. Decree 90/1997/ND-CP of the government states that: Socialization of education, healthcare and cultural activities is to mobilize and organize the participation of people and society in the development of these social works…[socialization ]is to build collective responsibility of all social strata to create and develop a healthy socio-economic environment and to facilitate education, healthcare and cultural activities…Socialization is the expansion of investment sources and exploitation of human, material and talent resource of society Socialization of public services is carried out in three directions: - transform of public or state social service units (tổ chức sự nghiệp nhà nước) to people’s social service units and private social service units which have profit or non-profit nature. State property in the state social service units are transferred to non-state actors through sale, lease or in management contract. - encourage the creation of non-state public service providers in forms of cooperative, private non-business organizations and enterprises. These non-state public service providers can have profit or non-profit aims; and 385 - encourage the cooperation between state social service units with non-state actors such as civil society organizations, private business organizations local communities, and individuals for better delivery of public services. 5.3.6. An engaging civil society is essential to bring public services to the marginalized people Numerous studies have highlighted the important role of civil society in the delivery of a wide range of public services such as social care, health, education, leisure and environmental management. In the transition period, one method for civil society to grow is by actively engaging in development when the state’s role is “downsized” and public spending has declined. Civil society organizations (CSOs) are particularly helpful where the government does not reach and where the forces of the market produce unwanted results. In the developing world, many CSOs work closely with the government by forming a substantive partnership in the delivery of public services. They may contract with public agencies to provide those services, or they may receive state grants to contribute to their funding for particular public programs and projects to achieve their aims. Civil society is a newly emerged sphere of development in Viet Nam. In contrast to Western views, CSOs in Viet Nam are regarded including not only NGOs and various community-based organizations (e.g. credit associations, water users) but also a number of state-led professional associations and mass organizations (e.g. Women’s Union, Veteran Association) (Duong et. al., 2003; Sinh, 2001; SAG, 2006: 21). The rationale for this conceptualization of civil society relies on the agreement on the impracticability to view civil society completely independent of the state, and the practical focus on the “functions” of CSOs rather than their organizational forms (SAG-Viet Nam, 2006: 31). According to the report “The Emerging Civil Society: An Initial Assessment of Civil Society in Viet Nam” by Institute of Social Development (2006) under the CIVICUS civil-society study program, CSOs in Viet Nam are actively lobbying local authorities to support their involvement in the provision of services pertaining to the development of rural infrastructure (irrigation, water resources, road construction), including implementing and monitoring development work in line with the government policy of “socializing” rural water supply services. Some CSOs also provide alternative services to groups that have fallen through the cracks of the state services. The mass organizations and to some extent professional associations may have the largest overall impact than other CSOs in development because they reach a broader segment of society. The mass organizations such as Women’s Union and Farmers’ Association have actively participated in the implementation of poverty reduction plans at the local level and have been particularly active at the community level. Table 14: Indicators assessing meeting societal needs 386 1 2 3 Indicators Lobbying for State service provision Meeting societal needs directly Meeting the needs of marginalised groups Average Score (0-3) 1.5 1.2 1.5 Source: SAG, 2006. Chapter III. Analysis of Civil Society. Section 4.5. Meeting Societal Needs Nonetheless, the report also sees that CSOs’ ability to meet the social needs is still limited and scored below the medium (SAG, 2006: 92). Although CSOs of all types actively participate in the delivery of public services and contribute to Viet Nam’s reduction of poverty but they are a driving force of neither public service provision nor poverty reduction in general. Increasingly, these are the combined efforts of government, donors and CSOs (SAG, 2006: 90). The future efforts of the Vietnamese CSOs in public service provision should focus on their ability to reach to the poorest and the most marginalized. They also need to “scale up” their successful activities to expand their coverage to larger part of the population. In Viet Nam, like in other countries, there is an inherent weakness of Vietnamese CSOs that they are unable to provide an overall framework for operation at national or regional levels. A framework to ensure that all people have adequate access to services is thus provided only by the state. Although the state must take primary responsibility, useful partnerships can be established between governments and CSOs for public services provision. 5.3.7. A sound legal and regulatory framework is an enabling environment for public services Public services, except defence and security, should have overall aims to create social development and to support growth of other economic sectors. In many countries, when the provision of numerous public services has been handed in to the private sector, it is crucial that the state creates a legal and regulatory environment for the development of public services. State intervenes into public services delivery by laws and regulations to guarantee the quality of public services and to certain extent to ensure that there is social equity in public service provision by the private sector. There is a “horizontal” legal and regulatory system for public services in general. Examples of components of the “horizontal” system are Law on Government Organization in 2001, Law on state budget in 2002, Law on tax management in 2006, Investment Law in 2005, SOE Law in 2003, Law on Enterprises in 2005, Law on Government Officials and Civil Servants in 2008, and number of Decrees, Decisions and Circulars by the Prime Minister, government and at ministerial levels regarding general issues such as the autonomy of state public services providers. Below the “horizontal” system, which is still regarded enabling, there is a more restrictive “specific” legal and regulatory system for each public service sector such as electricity, public administration, health and education. For example, the healthcare sector is in 387 addition subjected to number of specific laws and regulations such as Law on protection of people’s health in 2000, Pharmaceutical Law in 2005, Law on health insurance in 2008, Interagency circular 02/2008/TTLT-BYT-BNV in 2008, Circular 23/2005/TT-BYT Instruction on Ranking of Public Health Service Providers (e.g. classification of quality, capability and specialization) and Decision 24/2008/QĐ-BYT on organization and operation of pharmaceutical shop in public hospitals etc. In some other sectors, recreation, sport and culture services, for example, specific permits from Ministry of Culture, Information, Sport and Tourism or its local departments must be obtained to organize public events. Typical regulations for specific public services in Viet Nam often include regulations on recruitment of employees, on fees and tolls, on professional licenses, through permission for organization of activities, on establishment, and through monopoly protection. Table 15: Dominant Types of Regulations in Specific Public Services Service sector Dominant Types of Regulations 1 2 3 4 5 6 State Management X (Public administration) Education and X Training Health and social works X X X X X X Recreation, Sport X. and Culture Party, mass and associations Community and personal services X X Other On contracting out, bidding and procurement of government agencies. State audition’s regulations Regulations on curriculum X X X X Prohibition of doctors working in hospital to own private clinics (on discussions). Intellectual property rights. Excluding forbidden activities. Excluding forbidden activities. In coordination with local agencies Note: 1.Regulation on recruitment of employees 2.Regulation on fees and tolls 3.Regulation on professional licenses 4.Regulation through permission for organization of activities 5.Regulation on establishment 388 6.Regulation through monopoly protection Moreover, the current legal and regulatory systems focus more on input requirements and output delivery than outcome delivery of public services. That is, for example, a healthcare center must meet all requirements on license, personnel, facilities, capital, and registration, but there is little inspection on their post-establishment activities. A civil servant must possess all kinds of certificates to be promoted or assigned into certain position rather than acquire only a few but enough important knowledge and skills. Cross-checking among the government agencies is not regularly conducted and in most cases the consumers are those who discover and file out the complaints about the quality of public services. According to Law on State Budget in 2002, the National Assembly approves the size of annual government budget and its allocation to each specific public sector. The cross-sectoral (functional) ministries and agencies including their local departments are in charge of monitoring the implementation of horizontal regulations. For example, Ministry of Planning and Investment is responsible for granting investment licenses, and approving investments on public projects and programs. Ministry of Finance is responsible for determining fees rates and tax in consultation with major public service providers and relevant sectoral ministry. Ministry of Home Affairs is in charge of personnel regulation in public sector. Sectoral ministries and agencies and their local departments are in charge of monitoring the implementation of specific regulations. Ministry of Health is in charge in the management of health service. Because public services are considered strategic to socio-economic development, top party organizations often have issued development guidelines and orientations for some sectors such as public administration, culture, education, healthcare etc. In the current context of Viet Nam, as the public sector is still the primary provider of public services, the legal and regulatory framework needs to aim at increasing the accountability of state-owned public service providers. Furthermore, to deviate from the past centrally-planned target system, a new legal and regulatory framework needs to aim at enabling outcome improvement rather than merely enabling the increase in output of public services. Table 16: Main Regulatory Organizations of Public Services Service sector State Management (Public administration) Education and Training Health and social works Major Regulatory Organizations Ministry of Home Affairs, Party organization (on employment); Ministry of Education and Training Ministry of Health, Ministry of Labor, Invalid and Social Affairs, Recreation, Sport and Culture Ministry of Information and Communication, Ministry of Culture, Sport and Tourism; Central Board for Ideology and Culture of CPV; Viet Nam Television, Radio the Voice of Viet Nam; Party, mass and associations Party organization, Fatherland Front, Umbrella associations, Community and personal Local authorities (local people’s committees) and relevant 389 services ministries (local departments) Yet, the above role as an “enabling player” of the government may be cut down to “enabling regulator” in the context of Viet Nam’s international integration. Four marked international commitments that define the opening and liberalization of public services in Viet Nam are: - VN-US BTA, which was signed on July 13th 2000 and entered into force on December 11th 2001 - Sections related to public services in the WTO commitments on services (GATS), which were concluded 26/10/2006 and entered into force on January 11th 2007 - Service section of Viet Nam’s commitment in ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement which was signed and entered into force 1/7/2007 - Viet Nam’s 7th AFAS package which was signed on 26/2/2009, and entered into force 90 days after (May 2009). 72 International integration plus domestic reforms have produced major transformations in the public services, such as monopolies have been weakened by markets in many key sectors; private ownership and providers emerge and coexist with government ownership and providers; the role of the government as the owner and provider of services has diminished and been cut back to a more regulatory role; and free public service system of the past has been replaced by a user-fee system in most public services. The impetus for these changes has been an increased belief that free markets operated by private companies can at large alter the state or at least work in tandem with the state to bring public services to citizens. If the market can deliver better prices and better services, then the state will only have to step in to provide support as a last resort. Although there is a “WTO obsession” in various sectors of the economy over the past few years, the impacts of WTO accession on the public services so far have not been much because of many government’s preservations. Biggest changes expected in education and health sectors which fall under the scope of the GATS have not yet occurred. In fact, the current stage of liberalization of the public services in Viet Nam is still on restructuring of the public sector but short of privatization. In the latter form, state still retain ownership and operation of the public service facilities but introduce modification to the structure, work organization and human resources often taken from private company model. This is accompanied with the decentralization of operation from central to local and community level, separation between upstream and downstream activities, and separation among production, transportation and distribution. Thus, many public service facilities and organizations at the central level such as economic groups and general state corporations, and upstream service distribution and production of such key public 72 Vietnam’s commitment in ACFTA and 7th AFAS package are based on the previous WTO commitments with a slight difference in the healthcare service under the 7th AFAS package (see appendix). 390 utilities services as water, gas and electricity production are still operated and managed by the state. At the same time, downstream activities at the community level and distribution of public services to individual consumers can be assumed or delegated to private sector. The whole above process is taken on the voluntary initiative of the government and the domestic private sector rather than on the implementation of the international commitments with outsiders. 391 Table 17: Comparison of WTO commitments of China, India, Mexico and Viet Nam in educational and health services WTO Member China Commitment PE HE M S X X India - - Mexico X X Sector Limitation (Modes 1 – 3) Horizontal Limitation (Modes Modification of 1 – 3)* Sector Coverage MA&NT (1) Unbound. (2) None. MA (3) Joint schools with foreign majority ownership. NT (3) Unbound. MA&NT (1)-(2) None. MA (3) Joint venture requirement, ENT. NT (3) Majority of doctors & medical staff must be nationals. MA&NT (1)-(2) Unbound. MA (3) Foreign equity share limited to 51 per cent. NT (3) None. MA&NT (1)-(2) None. MA (3) Foreign capital participation limited to 49 per cent; prior authorization requirement. NT (3) None. MA&NT (1)-(3) None. MA&NT (1) Unbound. (2) None. MA (3) Foreign capital participation limited to 49 per cent. Not relevant. HS X - - X X X Primary Education: Excluding national compulsory education. Not relevant. Private education services. Private hospital services. 392 Note: Sectors: PE = Primary Education; HE = Higher Education; MS = Medical Services; HS = Hospital Services Commitments: MA = Market Access; NT = National Treatment; none = full commitment (no limitation); unbound = no commitments (full policy discretion) * Only limitations that may have a significant impact on supplies in the four sectors concerned ENT: Economic needs tests and similar provisions. Source: adapted from Rolf Adlung. Economic Research and Statistics Division (WTO). 2005. Public Services and the GATS. Working Paper ERSD-2005-03. July 2005. pp. 21 5.4 Key public ser vices to pr omote socio-economic development 5.4.1. Education and health for growth, human development, and competitiveness of the economy Numerous theoretical and empirical studies have indicated a strong positive effect of health and education on economic growth of a nation (Grossman, 1972; Mankiw, Romer and Weil, 1992; World Bank, 1993; Barro and Lee, 1993; Barro, 1996; 1997; Bloom, Canning and Sevilla, 2001). Health and education are regarded as essential components of human capital - a capital productive asset - and an engine of economic growth. From the social perspective, education and health are among the most important assets a human being has and can acquire. It permits us to fully develop our capacities. Health improvement and education attainment are crucial for the accomplishment of the MDGs. Nowadays, most countries in the world have appealed health and education to the basic human rights. But most often, education and health services fail to meet the need of the people, especially in the developing countries. As the World Bank Development Report in 2004 has pointed out, these services are failing because they are falling short of their potential to improve outcomes. They are inaccessible or prohibitively expensive. Even when accessible, they are often dysfunctional, extremely low in technical quality, and unresponsive to the needs of a diverse clientele (WB, 2004: 19). There are also particular reasons to give priority to the development of education and health services in Viet Nam because of its ongoing transition, socialist orientation and the need to revive the competitiveness of the economy. The Government of Viet Nam has traditionally accorded highest priority to education and health sectors as this is enshrined in the constitution, and in the spirit of important party guidelines and state documents. This priority is even increasingly emphasized as education and health represent the rapidly changing sectors over the past years in the process of liberalization and the so-called “socialization” of public services. 393 Changes in education services are the tests for the transition of Viet Nam toward market economy with socialist orientation. Yet, it is puzzling that despite special attention of the government and the pronounced success of these two sectors, education and health services have not been able to make their full use in improving the competitiveness of the economy. At the current stage, the need to enhance the competitiveness of the Vietnamese economy is urging as its rank in the World Economic Forum “Global Competitiveness Reports” falls from 64 in 2006 (out of 122 countries) to 68 in 2007 (out of 131 countries) and 70 in 2008 (out of 134 countries). According to “Global Competitiveness Reports 2008,” there is deterioration of the fourth pillar (health and primary education) as the basic requirement and of the fifth pillar (higher education and training) as efficiency enhancers for the economic competitiveness. Viet Nam ranks 84 for its “health and primary education” pillar, and 98 for its “higher education and training” pillar out of 134 countries in 2008 (WEF, 2008: 346). The report also lists inadequate educated workforce and poor public health among the most problematic factor for doing business in Viet Nam. 394 Figure 2: Competitiveness Index for Viet Nam Figure 3: The most problematic factor for doing business in Viet Nam Source: World Economic Forum. 2009. Global competitiveness report 2008. pp. 346 5.4.2. Development of education and training services 395 Viet Nam has outperformed many countries with similar to or even higher average per capita income in terms of education. According to the recently published report “Viet Nam Continues to Achieve the Millennium Development Goals 2008,” in 2008, the literacy rate at the age of ten and above is 93.9 percent. This rate is 96 percent in the urban areas and 92 percent in the countryside. Literacy rate within age of 15-24 is 93.9 percent nationwide. Viet Nam already accomplished the goal of universalization of primary education in 2000 or 15 years before the 2015 deadline. In 2006-2007, the enrolment rate at the primary level is 95.96 percent nationwide. As the end of 2007, 42 out of 64 province and cities reached the national standard for universalization of lower secondary education. This is a marked success for a relatively poor country with limited resources and large population. Box 1: Viet Nam’s Social Development and Poverty Reduction Goals (VDGs) until 2010: Goal 2 Universalize education and improve education quality 1) Increase net enrolment in primary education to 97% by 2005 and to 99% by 2010. 2) By 2010 have improved the quality of education and increase full-day schooling at primary level. 3) Increase net enrolment rate in junior secondary school to 90% by 2010. 4) Increase net enrolment rate in upper secondary school to 50% by 2010. 5) Eliminate illiteracy for 100% of illiterate under-40-year-old women by 2010. The Education System in Viet Nam consists of five-year primary, four-year lower secondary, three-year upper secondary, two to three-year technical and four-year higher education. “Compulsory” education starts for children at 6 years old and continues through five years of primary schooling (Figure 2). Table 18 below provides basic development indicators of the Vietnamese educational services at all level, from kindergarten to university and college. The progress of the educational service can be assessed based on some following criteria: - Infrastructure: in general, the number of schools and classes has increased rapidly at all levels. Exceptions include a decline in the number of primary-secondary schools and lower-upper secondary schools due to the re-organization of these two old types of schools, and a decline in a number of classes at the primary and lower secondary levels corresponding to the decline to the number of primary and lower secondary pupils. - Pupil/Teacher (P/T) ratio: P/T ratio has constantly declined in the kindergarten, primary and secondary levels, showing an improvement in quality. In contrast, P/T ratio increases at the higher levels (i.e. Professional secondary and vocational training, university and college), indicating a shortage of lecturers. The UNESCO Global Monitoring Report 396 2009 “Education for All” alarms that the decline of P/T ratio was particularly marked in Viet Nam (UNESCO, 2008). - The proportion of pupils reaching grade 5 in 2006 is above 90 percent, which is at the medium level in the Asia-pacific region, and higher than some countries in Southeast Asia such as Indonesia, and the Philippines. However, the proportion of pupils finishing lower secondary level (grade 9) is 76.59 percent in 2006-2007. The proportion of pupils who passed the upper secondary accomplishment exams fell from 93.7 percent in 20052006 to 80.42 in 2006-2007 but reached 83.8 percent in 2008-2009. In addition, despite the pronounced successes in many basic targets for educational universalization, there is a puzzling decline in the number of primary and lower secondary pupils while the population still increases recently. - Available statistical data indicate a remarkable increase in the number of lecturers having higher professional qualification. For example, the number of lecturers in professional secondary and vocational training schools holding postgraduate diploma increased from 1335 in 2003 to 2611 in 2007. There has been an increase from 17628 to 30181 for lecturers at the universities and colleges in the same period (GSO, 2008: 556, 561). 397 Table 18: Key Education Indicators in Viet Nam, 2003-2007 Schools Kindergarten Schools Primary Schools Primary and lower secondary schools Lower and upper secondary schools Lower secondary Schools Upper secondary Schools Kindergarten education Pupils (thousands) Teachers (thousands) Pupil/teacher ratio Elementary School Classes (thousands) Pupils (thousands) Teachers (thousands) Pupil/teacher ratio Secondary School Lower secondary Classes (thousands) Pupils (thousands) Teachers (thousands) Pupil/teacher ratio Upper secondary Classes (thousands) Pupils (thousands) Teachers (thousands) Pupil/teacher ratio 20032004 20042005 20052006 20062007 2007-2008 9975 14346 1143 10376 14518 1034 10927 14688 889 11582 14834 773 11696 14933 727 454 396 315 307 308 8745 1664 9041 1828 9383 1952 9635 2044 9781 2149 2172.9 106.7 20.4 2329.8 112.8 20.6 2426.9 117.2 20.7 2524.3 122.9 20.5 2593.3 130.4 19.9 299.4 8346.0 366.2 22.79 288.9 7744.8 362.4 21.37 276.6 7304.0 354.8 20.59 270.2 7029.4 349.5 20.11 266.4 6860.3 348.7 19.67 165.7 6569.8 290.4 22.62 170.9 6616.7 302.5 21.87 167.5 6371.3 310.2 20.54 163.8 6152.0 314.9 19.54 160.2 5803.3 317.5 18.28 55.8 2589.6 98.8 26.21 59.9 2761.1 106.1 26.02 64.6 2975.3 115.5 25.76 67.2 3075.2 125.2 24.56 68.6 3021.6 134.4 22.48 Professional secondary and vocational training 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Pupils (thousands) 360.4 466.5 500.3 515.7 621.1 Full time 298.2 393.3 422.7 421.7 538.3 Other 62.2 73.2 77.6 94.0 82.8 Lecturers (thousands) 11.1 13.9 14.2 14.5 15.4 398 Public Non-public P/T Ratio Schools Public Non-public 10.0 1.1 32.47 268 238 30 11.5 2.4 33.56 285 239 46 11.3 2.9 35.23 284 227 57 12.4 2.1 35.56 269 205 64 13.2 2.2 40.33 273 234 39 Students (thousands) 1131.0 1319.8 1387.1 1666.2 1928.4 Public 993.9 1182.0 1226.7 1456.7 1662.5 Non-public 137.1 137.8 160.4 209.5 265.9 Lecturers (thousands) Public Non-public P/T ratio University & Colleges Public Non-public 40.0 34.9 5.1 28.27 214 187 27 47.6 40.0 7.6 27.73 230 201 29 48.6 42.0 6.6 28.54 277 243 34 53.4 45.7 7.7 31.20 322 275 47 61.3 54.4 6.9 31.46 345 288 57 University and college Source: GSO. 2008: Statistical Yearbook 2007. Education section, and author calculation. Recent discussions have been attracted to the issue of financing for education. In a series of articles on Vietnamese education, Vu Quang Viet (2006, 2007, 2008) has pointed out that spending on education in Viet Nam is too high, even in comparison with the developed countries. The ratio of total spending on education per GDP was about 8.3 percent in 2005, 8.4 percent in 2006 and 9.2 percent in 2007 according to Ministry of Education and Training. However, the data of the General Statistics Office even indicate higher total spending on education. Meanwhile, spending on education is about 7.2 percent of GDP in the U.S on average and 6.1 percent of GDP in the OECD countries. According to Viet (2006), in the developed countries, 20 percent of finance for education comes from the society but in Viet Nam this proportion is as high as 40 percent. Table 19: Total Spending on education Education spending/GDP (%) From state budget Viet Nam USA France Japan 8.3 5 6.1 5.7 7.2 5,3 399 4.7 3.5 Korea OCDE Republic 7.1 6.1 4.2 4.9 From society and other sources 3,3 Share in education spending (%) From state budget 60 From society and other sources 40 1,9 0.4 1.2 2.9 1.2 74 26 93 7 74 26 59 41 80 20 Source:Vu Quang Viet. 2006. Viet Nam’s Education : Startling Figures. http://Viet Namnet.vn/service/printversion.vnn?article_id=763868 Non-tuition contribution to school accounts for a large portion of spending on education by Vietnamese households, and this part is mounting to at an almost unaffordable level for many poor people. A survey by The Saigon Time in 2007 listed up to 64 kinds of non-tuition fees and contributions to schools. Many poor parents admit that they have to borrow money so that their children can continue the schooling. There is indeed a big gap between educational spending among income/expenditure groups. According to the above survey, average annual educational spending of a household in the poorest quintile group (group 1) and the second poorest quintile group are equivalent to 15 percent and 29 percent of educational spending by the wealthiest quintile group (group 5). Hence, the dropout rates among children at the age of 15-17 are 46 percent and 33 percent for group 1 and group 2 respectively, whereas these rates are 23 percent for group 4 and 10 percent for group 5. The survey concludes that non-tuition contributions and fees are the main cause to this inequality that exists from the primary to the upper secondary level and this is the biggest barrier to the poor to the educational services. Table 20: Share of spending for schooling in total spending of household in some Southern provinces (%) Expenditure Group Trà Vinh Vĩnh Long An Giang Group 1 3.96 6.83 4.57 Group 2 3.72 6.39 4.20 Group 3 4.19 6.80 4.85 Group 4 3.58 5.46 4.62 Group 5 2.01 3.03 3.24 Average 3.60 5.66 4.33 Source: Burden of Educational Spending. 2/5/2008 Note: Group 1: most poor, group http://www.thesaigontimes.vn/Home/thoisu/doisong/5335/ Daklak 8.02 11.72 8.93 7.74 6.73 7.41 5 : HCM 5.33 12.45 12.13 9.72 8.42 8.99 most wealthy There is a renewed concern over the release in 2008 of the UNESCO 2008 Global Monitoring Report “Education for All” which put the Education Development Index of Viet Nam (based on universalization of primary education, adult literacy rate, gender equality in education and quality of education) down the 9th grade below the last report in 2007, ranking Viet Nam at 79th out of 129 countries with data. This is the alarm for the development of educational service in Viet Nam since the EDI has kept falling over the past 5 years. 400 Figure 4: UNESCO Education Development Index for Viet Nam Source: UNESCO, Global Monitoring Report – Educational for All, 2008. Quoted by Educational sector owes an explanation. (Ngành giáo ục đang d nợ một lời giải thích). 05/11/2008; http://Viet Namnet.vn/giaoduc/2008/11/811959/ The debates and discussions on the reforms of the Vietnamese educational service also look at many other problems. For example, low salary of teachers may affect the quality of educational services by reducing productivity and increasing absenteeism and corruption at schools. The current educational system is output-oriented – that is to put emphasis on the number of pupils and students without the quality of the trainees. The existing curriculum is both out of date and too heavy for the children and need to be reformed. There is also the gradual reform of the current exam system, which put too much weight on specific knowledge and skills of students. 5.4.3. Development of Health Services Since the beginning of the Doi Moi, Vietnamese health care service is said to record major achievements. The healthcare system is evaluated as better than those of many countries with the same income per capita. Poliomyelitis and tetanus among infants were eliminated in 2000 and leprosy in 2005. The mortality rate of children under 5 years old decreases from 58 percent in 1990 to 31.4 percent in 2004 whilst children under 1 year old from 44.4 percent to 18 percent (VDGs, 2005: 17). In 2003, 29.28 percent of poor households were granted free health insurance and 57.88 percent of poor households were entitled to the exemption or reduction of hospital fees. The average life expectancy in Viet Nam is 71.8 years in 2008, longer than that in many countries with the same income per capita. In 2007, Viet Nam had totally 13,438 healthcare service institutions with 210,800 patient beds. The number of doctors per one thousand people is 6.4 in 2007 (Statistical Yearbook 2007: 575, 580, 585). The reforms over the past two decades have created two important changes in the health service sector by introducing the hospital-user fee system and enabling the emergence of the private healthcare system. 401 The current healthcare system in Viet Nam consists of three levels: i) Basic healthcare network includes medical service units in communes and within productive organizations which take care for simple medical treatment and temporary accident rescues, ii) Provincial or regional health institutions include regional clinics and healthcare centers, which can receive patients in the region where they are located; and iii) Central health institutions include the so-called “central hospitals” which are under the direct administrative management of the Ministry of Health. 402 Figure 5: Healthcare System in Viet Nam MOH Hospitals, Central sanatorium and rehabilitation hospitals Regional polyclinics, district clinics, provisional health centers, regional specialized health center Medical service units in communes and precincts, medical units in offices and enterprises According to WHO data (WHO, 2009: 102-105), during the 2000-2007, the average physicians per 10,000 inhabitants ratio is 6, whereas the nursing and midwifery personnel per 10,000 inhabitants is 8 for. These ratios are 5 and 12 for Southeast Asian; 10 and 15 for the lower middle income countries; and 22 and 42 for the upper middle income countries on average. During 2000-2008, Viet Nam has 27 hospital beds per 10,000 inhabitants on average. This ratio is significantly higher that the one Southeast Asian region (9), and the lower middle income countries (16) but still lower than the ratio of the upper middle income countries (42). Box 2: Viet Nam’s Social Poverty Reduction Goals (VDGs) until 2010: Goals 4, 5, 6 Development and 4. Reduce birth rate, child mortality and child malnutrition Reduce birth rate to achieve the natural average substitution rate in the whole country no later than 2005; and in remote, isolated and poor areas no later than 2010. Reduce the infant mortality rate to 20 per 1,000 live births by 2010. Reduce the under – five mortality rate to 27 per 1,000 live births by 2010. Reduce the under – five malnutrition rate to less than 20% by 2010. Reduce the underweight (under 2.5 kg) birth rate to 5% by 2010. 403 5.5 Impr ove mater nal health Reduce, by 2010, the maternal mortality rate to 70 per 10,000 live births with special attention to disadvantaged areas. Improve mother’s health condition after giving birth. 5.6 Reduce HIV/AIDS infection and er adicate other major diseases Slow the increase in the spread of HIV/AIDS by 2005 and have the rate of increase by 2010. Maintain the achievement of polio eradication; minimize the incidence and death of cholera, typhoid, petechial fever, malaria, and plague, etc. Extend prevention of accidents, injury and harm reduction of smoking. WHO data (WHO, 2009: 95) also indicate that globally, there are 13 physicians per 10,000 population and 28 nurses and midwives per 10,000 populations although there are with large variations between countries and regions. WHO estimates that countries with fewer than 23 health-care professionals (counting only physicians, nurses and midwives) per 10,000 populations will be unlikely to achieve adequate coverage rates for the key primary health-care interventions prioritized by the Millennium Development Goals? With this regard, Viet Nam has only 14 healthcare professionals per 10,000 inhabitants. Globally, there are 25 hospital beds for 10,000 people, and this ratio is still lower than the one of Viet Nam. Data provided in Table 21 by the General Statistics Office below also indicate relatively dismal outcomes for the health services. Both the patient bed per 10,000 population and doctor per 10,000 population ratios increased too slowly since 2003, and this stagnancy show that the increase in the number of beds and doctors were not able to exceed the increase in the population to make a significant improvement. However, during the 2003-2007 periods, the number of hospitals and medical service units in communes increased to offset the decline in the number of non-hospital units (regional polyclinics, sanatorium and rehabilitation hospitals, medical service units in administrative and economic sectors) due to the restructure of these healthcare institutions. Table 21: Key Indicators of Health Service Sector in Viet Nam, 2003-2007 2003 Total healthcare units 13162 Hospital 842 Regional polyclinic 930 Sanatorium and rehabilitation hospital 77 Medical service units in communes, 10448 precincts Medical service units in office, 810 enterprises Others 55 Patient beds (thousands) 192.9 404 2004 13149 856 881 53 10516 2005 13243 878 880 53 10613 2006 13232 903 847 51 10672 2007 13438 956 829 51 10851 789 769 710 710 54 196.3 50 197.2 49 198.4 41 210.8 Patient bed per 10,000 inhabitants 23.8 23.9 23.7 Doctor (thousands) 47.2 50.1 51.5 Physician (thousands) 48.7 49.2 49.7 Nurse 47.8 49.2 51.6 Midwife 16.2 17.5 18.1 Doctor per 10,000 inhabitants 5.8 6.1 6.2 Source: GSO. 2008. Statistical Yearbook 2007: 575, 580, 585 23.6 52.8 48.8 55.4 19.0 6.3 24.8 54.8 48.8 60.3 20.8 6.4 Table 23 indicates that Viet Nam is located in the Southeast Asian region where little attention is given to the expenditure on health sector. Southeast Asia scores poorly in all four aspects (total expenditure on health as % of GDP, general government expenditure on health as % of total expenditure on health, general government expenditure on health as % of total government expenditure, and per capital total expenditure on health in terms of PPP $. Nonetheless, Viet Nam has performed much better comparing with the regional average. Viet Nam’s total expenditure on health/GDP ratio is even higher than both lower and upper middle income country groups in 2006. Although this is an encouraging investment trend, in the absolute dollar terms, health spending in Viet Nam is still much smaller than the ones of these two groups. Viet Nam’s per capital total expenditure on health in PPP was $US 151 in 2006 but that of lower middle income countries and upper middle income countries were $US 181 and 707 respectively. In addition, Viet Nam’s share of general government expenditure on health in total government expenditure is considerably lower than those in the lower and upper middle countries (6.4 percent comparing with 8.2 percent and 9.8 percent), let alone the higher income groups. This evidences the fact that health spending is still overlooked in the Vietnamese government’s spending structure. Similar to the educational services, one major concern over financing for health sector in Viet Nam is a low proportion of government expenditure in total expenditure on health. This share is 32.3 percent for Viet Nam in 2006 whereas they are 43.2 percent and 55.1 percent for lower and upper middle income countries. For the US, where the private healthcare system is much developed, this share is still as high as 45.8 percent. Low share of government spending in Viet Nam may mean that people have to spend too much of their pockets on healthcare. A survey in 2006 has found out an increased situation of the so-called “catastrophic health expenditure” (CATA). This survey points to the fact that in 2004, out of 100 household with member(s) receiving hospital treatment, 8 households experienced a CATA and 5 households then fell below the poverty threshold (Even Document, 2007). Besides the government budget, incomes of the hospitals now come from two other sources: user fees and health insurance. However, user fees are the most important sources. According to a recently published article, patients have to pay 73 percent of the cost for hospital treatment and medicines (Phapluat 17/7/2009). Of total healthcare spending by a household, 30 percent are for formal and informal hospital fees, and 70 percent (48 percent for house patients) are for purchase of medicine and 405 medical instrument. The coverage of the distribution program of free healthcare card to the poor and marginalized people is limited because the demand for healthcare is too high. In 2004, WHO ranked Viet Nam 183 out of 194 countries in terms of inequality in healthcare service. Many experts is currently still warning that Viet Nam continues experiencing inequality in hospital and medical treatment (laodong, No.88, 19/4/2008). Ther e is also a concer n over the deter ior ation of people’s health because of the degr adation of envir onmental quality. A sur vey in 2007 indicates that ther e ar e 4200 pr oductive bases which ar e ser ious envir onmental polluter s. Ther e ar e also 1500 industr ial handcr aft villages with high r isks of envir onmental pollution and these villager s ar e exposed to danger ous diseases fr om two to thr ee times higher than those who ar e engaged with agr icultur al pr oductions. This sur vey also pr ovides a star tling figur e that ther e ar e 51 socalled “cancer ” villages near by industr ial zones, dumping sites and chemical stor es (vietbao, 25/12/2007). 406 Table 22: Key indicators of expenditure on health in 2006 Total General expenditure on government health as % of expenditure on GDP health as % of total expenditure on health 6.6 32.3 15.3 45.8 11.0 79.7 of 6.4 55.7 Viet Nam USA France Republic Korea Southeast Asia 3.4 Lower middle 4.5 income countries Upper middle 6.3 income countries General government expenditure on health as % of total government expenditure 6.4 19.3 16.7 11.7 Per capital total expenditure on health (PPP int’l $) 33.6 43.2 4.7 8.2 85 181 55.1 9.8 707 151 6719 3420 1467 Source: WHO, 2009: Table 7. 5.7 Recommendations for Goals and Vision for the Development of Public Ser vices in Viet Nam to the year 2020 and 2025 5.7.1. Building the first class public services for all people Viet Nam strives to become a medium middle-level income country to the year 2020. The development goals and visions of the public services must be supportive to this overall objective. They should also be compatible with the socialist orientation. Long-term development vision for public services of Viet Nam should aim at building the first class public services for all people. That means: Building the development-oriented and people-centered public services Just as public sector is different from private sector, public services are different from private services in that the former cannot choose their customers. Nor can public service providers serve customers depending upon their income and what they can afford. Likewise, people make use of public services not so much out of choice just as society makes use of the state. In any circumstances, public services however must strive to meet people’s demand with excellence. A people-centered public service means that people are centered in the interest of the service providers whether these are the government, private sector or civil society. Public services must also fill in the gap between economic growth and social development – that is to promote social development and to ensure that it does not lag behind economic growth. Among 407 the main goals that Vietnamese public services contribute to achieve are the MDGs by 2015. Because public services providers are not often profit-making enterprises, to sustain development-oriented goals, public services need the support and intervention of the government. Building the state-of-the-art public services There are still many complaints on the backwardness and simplicity of Viet Nam’s public services. The state-of-the-art should be the norms of key public services in Viet Nam in the near future. This includes: + state-of-the-art public administrative services, as indicated, for example, by the level of e-government + state-of-the-art educational services, as indicated, for example, by modern educational facilities, curriculum, teaching methods, density of study works at the university and college level, and school management. + state-of-the-art healthcare services, as indicated, for example, by modern grassroots healthcare networks, medical facilities, and the ability of hospitals and clinics to take over treatment of diseases, and emergencies. + state-of-the-art recreation, sport and culture, as indicated, for example, by a modern public media (e.g. the level of information technology application), broadcasting system, delivery system such as cable network, and event organization technology. Building 3Es public services So far, despite major achievements, Viet Nam’s public services still fall short of 3E criteria. That means desirable public services must ensure: equity, efficiency and effectiveness. + Equity criterion means public services are able to meet the needs of all groups in the society. It also means guaranteeing equal access of all people to the services they need and ensuring equal outcomes of using those services. + Effectiveness criterion means three aspects of public services: i) effective access – or easiness to obtain a service; ii) appropriateness – or services should meet well people’s needs; and iii) quality – or services must conform to high standards. + Efficiency criterion means three aspects: i) technical efficiency or public services are produced at the lowest possible cost; ii) allocative efficiency or producing the services that people value most given resource constraint; and iii) dynamic efficiency or sustaining the delivery of new and better products, and existing products at lower cost. Building growth-supported public services 408 Although growth alone is not enough it does have “trickle down” effects on social development. Numerous studies have found that there is a positive causality relationship between public services development and economic growth. Viet Nam’s public services are not growthsupportive enough. Public services such as health, education and administrative services will have to play better role as “soft infrastructure” of the economy. At the same time, these services will strive to become stronger growth engines by themselves. The development of these public services will certainly bring in social development. 5.7.2. Building an advanced educational service, imbued with national identity, and meeting the need of industrialization and modernization in the context of international integration 73 The 14th Draft of the Development Strategy of Education 2009-2020 has identified key development concepts for Vietnamese education services. These are: 1. Holding the mission to create overall development of Vietnamese people, contribute to the building of modern national culture, and lay the ground and play the engine for industrialization and modernization 2. Developing the educational services of people, by the people and for the people 3. Meeting the need of the society, and development demand of its members, and producing joyfulness in the studies, and creating an educated society. 4. Pushing forward international integration of educational sector at the same time preserving and making use of national culture to build an educational service which values humanity, progressiveness and modernity. 5. Increasing competitiveness in educational service as to motivate educational development. 6. Ensuring best quality possible of educational services despite resource constraint. In the next 20 years, the overall goals of Viet Nam’s educational services are to build a modern, science-based, and national education which serves the cause of industrialization and modernization in line with market economy with socialist orientation, and looking forward to an educated society. The education of Viet Nam must produce the people who have independent and creative thought, context compliance and problem solving capability, knowledge and professional skills, self-control capability and citizen responsibility, and attached to national independence and socialist cause. 73 Conclusion 242-TB-TU on April 15th 2009 by the Politburo regarding development orientation of education. 409 The 14th Draft of the Development Strategy of Education also lay down three specific objectives to be achieved by Viet Nam’s educational services by the year 2020, including: The educational services reach an adequate scale to ensure sufficient human resources for industrialization and modernization, and to provide people with life-learning opportunities Improving quality and effectiveness of education approaching regional and international standard. Resources for education development are sufficed, efficiently allocated and effectively used. The 14th Draft suggests a set of 11 important measures to be implemented. These are: reforming educational management; developing educational staffs; re-structuring national educational system and expanding educational network; renovating education programs; renovating teaching methods, student evaluations, and inspection mechanism for educational institutions; socializing educational services, increasing investment on education, attaching education and training to demand of the society; supporting education for marginalized regions and communities; improving effectiveness of science and technology activities in education and research organizations; and building advanced educational institutions. Development Strategy of Education will be implemented in three phases. Phase 1 (2009 – 2010) - Adjusting key targets and continuing the implementation of Development strategy for the 2001-2010 period. - Focusing on key objectives: pushing forward the pedagogical renovation; consolidating rules and regulations in educational services; reforming administrative system. - Initializing programs of the period 2009 – 2020. Phase 2 (2011 - 2015) - Implementing new kindergarten education program; preparing to implement new secondary curriculum; increasing application of new international educational programs; starting new foreign language program. - Organizing national evaluation program, and participating international evaluation program regarding educational achievement of students - Reforming structure and state management in national educational system - Pushing forward the reforms in the training of educational staffs 410 Phase 3 (2016 - 2020) - Building university at international standards - Conducting necessary adjustments on goals and targets and evaluating results of the strategy. 5.7.3. Building a comprehensive health service of the people, by the people and for the people This vision can be inferred from the spirits of many highest documents regarding the health service sectors such as the Constitution in 1992, the Resolution of the 9th National Party Congress, Direction 06/CT-TW of CPV central committee (9th congress) in 2002 on strengthening and perfection of grassroots health system, Decree 46/NQ-TW in 2005 of the Politburo (9th Congress) on “The healthcare work for the people in the new context,” Decree 47/NQ-TW in 2005 of the Politburo (9th Congress) on “Continue advancing the implementation of demographic and family planning policy,” Decision 42/ KL-TW in 2009 by the politburo on the reforms of operating mechanism (including salary and user fees) of public healthcare providers; Law on protection of people’s health in 2000, Pharmaceutical Law in 2005, and Law on health insurance in 2008; Comprehensive development plan for health system of Viet Nam to the year 2010 with a vision to 2020 (in 2006); Development plan for healthcare network by 2010 with a vision to 2020 (in 2008); the Draft of Demographic and maternal health strategy 20112020 etc The development strategy for health service up to 2020 should be inferred from The Comprehensive development plan for health system of Viet Nam to the year 2010 with a vision to 2020 and the Development plan for healthcare network by 2010 with a vision to 2020. The Comprehensive development plan for health system have identified the overall development goals of the health service as: building the healthcare system of Viet Nam toward modernization and perfection, looking forward equity, effectiveness and development; meeting increased and diverse needs of the people for health protection, caring and enhancement; reducing the disease and mortality rate, increasing life expectancy, improving life quality, match and exceed targets set out in the 2001–2010 period. In addition, the Development plan for healthcare network states the goal: Building and developing healthcare network compatible with socio-economic development condition of the country, leveling quality of healthcare services to be equal with more advanced countries in the region, meeting health demand of people and achieving equity, effectiveness and development goals. The Comprehensive development plan for health system points out four specific objectives: Develop preventive healthcare network capable of predicting, supervising and detecting and controlling epidemics to reduce the infection and mortality rates du 411 Invest on and re-arrange clinics and rehabilitation hospital network Strengthen and perfect grassroots healthcare network, increase the access of the people to basic medical and healthcare services Develop the pharmacy into pioneer technological and economic sector To implement the strategy, it then suggests six classes of measures, including financial measures, human resources measures, science and technology measure, medical equipment measures, international cooperation measures, and management measures. The implementation of both development strategies for health system and healthcare network is in two phases. Phase 1: 2008 – 2010: - upgrade hospitals at the district level and regional polyclinics; increase capability of commune clinics. Advance the investment and development of regional and provincial hospital - upgrade provincial polyclinics in the Central Highlands, Northern mountainous areas, Mekong river delta - develop hospitals in the specialized areas: Hanoi, Hue-Da Nang and Ho Chi Minh City - upgrade hospitals in regions where there are low patient bed per population ratio - pushing up the training of medical staffs to meet the demand of the healthcare service. Phase 2: 2011 - 2020 - continue to complete and increase technological level in specialized areas, polyclinics, and specialized clinics at the central level and at the regional level to meet the diverse demand for health services - increase the capability of polyclinics in Can Tho in order to assume the role of specialized center in the Mekong river delta 5.8 Recommendation for Guidelines and Measur es to develop public ser vices in Viet Nam Enabling the government to make public services work for the people Government intervention is crucial to guarantee public services to bring equal benefits to all people. The transition toward market economy has significantly and rapidly reduced the share of public sector in Viet Nam and this may be a constraint for effective government intervention measures. Quite often, the issue of government or public sector size leads to the debate on the government size between two schools of thought. One sees that a large government has a detrimental effect on economic growth since it drives resource allocation under political more than market forces (e.g. Baro, 1989, 1990, 1997; Romer, 1989). Another contends that government has a growth enhancing role since it can provide such public goods and has authority 412 to reduce negative externalities (e.g. Levine and Renelt, 1992; Karras, 1993, 1996, 1997). Yet, the current size of the government in Viet Nam is below any of the thresholds set by two schools of thought. Having said that the government should intervene does not mean making the government the providers of all public services. Some recent studies have pointed to two characteristics of Vietnamese public services (CIEM, 2007; Mai, 2008): (1) Services which are provided by the public authorities or under the mandate of public authorities. Public services can be provided by public agencies or private organizations. The nature of service providers does not determine if a service is public or not. Rather, it is the nature of the bearer of final responsibility for the supply of a service. In the case of public service supply, this bearer is always the government. And, (2) Public services are provided and purchased according to the market relationship with only a few exceptions. Consumers pay for public services fully through service fees, either partially or fully, or indirectly through tax. In the former case, state guarantees that the supply of public services is not for profit purpose, and all citizens are equal beneficiaries of public services regardless of their status in tax contribution. The implication of the above concept is clear: the government should be an “enabling regulator” rather than “enabling” provider. In other words, the government must intervene either by laws and regulations or by market measures to ensure safe, secure, and reliable access to public services at just and reasonable rates. Creating good governance for public services Better delivery of public services needs the effective participation of three actors: the state, the civil society and the private sector. Clean state, engaging civil society and responsible private sector are enabled under a system of good governance which exist at all three levels: at the macro-level of the macro environment that state creates and operate in, at the mezzo level of service sectors and service companies, and at the micro-level of specific local communities and units. This system of governance in Viet Nam needs to be improved. In their recent research, Daniel Kaufmann, Aart Kraay and Massimo Mastruzzi (2009) have ranked Viet Nam within of 25th-50th percentile for four out of six components of governance indicator (government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law and control of corruption). Except control of corruption, none of these four components have been significantly improved over the past three years. Figure 6: Governance Indicator of Viet Nam 413 Source: Daniel Kaufmann, Aart Kraay and Massimo Mastruzzi (2009). "Governance Matters VIII: Governance Indicators for 1996-2008". World Bank Policy Research June 2009. Note: Confidence level at 95 percent 90th-100th Percentile 50th-75th Percentile 10th-25th Percentile 75th-90th Percentile 25th-50th Percentile 0th-10th Percentile An important aspect in the reforms of the system of governance for the sake of public services development is to improve the governance at local level. Local level, not only within the local state system but also within local civil society and community, is often the place where the weaknesses of the governance concentrate, for example, lack democracy, corruption, incapability, red tape, resource constraint. Local government officials and street-level bureaucrats are not only those who are providers of public services, communicator with public service consumers to get their feedback, and direct supervisor of private sector but in many distant places, they also are those who raise the awareness and demands for public services among the local people. For example, in the mountainous areas, doctors and school teachers or even border guard troops are often the raisers of awareness of the importance of health and education in the indigenous communities. In many situations of resource constraint, the head of the hamlet often take the lead in mobilizing contribution from local community for public development purposes such as construction of local roads, schools, clinics, clean water supply and electricity lines. Pushing up the “public finance” reform, “salary” reform, and socialization Viet Nam needs a number of reforms in order to address its many problems in the public services. This paper recommends focusing on three essential measures which are the reform of 414 public finance, the reform of civil servant salary and the advancement of socialization of public services. + “Public finance” reforms Public finance reform is vital to sustain good performance of public services. This is a complicated reform since it touches many aspects of the economy, ranging from salary of civil servants and government officials, and user fee of public services to tax structure and corporate sector. Public finance reform in Viet Nam should target at: - Reducing the “leakage” problem, whether it occurs in public investments, tax and fee collections, corruption, and embezzlement or inappropriate use of government properties. This task is necessarily accompanied with the increased fiscal discipline and oversight of elected bodies and inspection organizations; - Getting the public expenditures and investment to the right beneficiaries. In other words, the government should spend wisely in the condition of resource constraint. Unwise spending results in part from fiscal decentralization, lack of oversight and too many spending items. To address this issue, the spending process needs greater transparency and participation of stakeholders; and - Determining the appropriate fee and tax rates for appropriate people. That is to eliminate the so-called “catastrophic user fees” of public services for the poor, at the same time ensuring sustainable provision of the best quality services to the society or making sure that taxpayers receive values for their contribution. + “Civil servant salary” reforms Low salary is said to be the major cause to the lack of incentive among civil servants in the delivery of public services. More seriously, it is also seen as the source of corruption in the public sector. Over the past years, the Vietnamese government has carried out a number of adjustments with an aim to increase the salary in the public sector. After the latest adjustment in May 2009 under Decree 33/2009/ND-CP, minimum salary of civil servant is brought up to 650,000 VND per month, and there is also a cash transfer program to those who have monthly salary below 1,600,000 VND. According to Decree 33/2009/ND-CP, the increase in salary will be paid from the savings of 10 percent of regular expenditures of the organization, or from the income of public service provider units which collect, or from the increase in the organization budget. Although this move should be welcome, the increase is still small comparing with the average living standard in the society. Of course, raising the salary of civil servants is just the beginning step, it must be accompanied with the strengthening of the sanction system, and measures to nourish the “working ethics” of the civil servants. + Socialization 415 Socialization is now recognized as a key solution to improve the quality and increase the availability of public services when the government resources are limited. At present, the priority targets of socialization are education, health, culture and sports services. However, many other public services will also be considered for socialization in the coming years. In the socialization process, the government should open up these services for the private sector to establish new service providers or to take part in the existing state service providers, at the same time ensure the non-discrimination between state and private service providers. In addition, just like the reforms of the SOE sector, a careful and effective socialization of public services needs thorough roadmaps and schemes for the socialization of each public service sector. Establishing performance management mechanism for better outcomes of public services So far, the government’s public service development measures focus more on the suppliers (e.g. hospitals, universities, transport operators) than consumers (patients, students, train or bus passengers). As a result, although Vietnamese public services have recorded major output achievements, their success in outcome achievement is still limited. Consumers, especially the poor, still face a lot of difficulties when engaging with a market. Low income households become commercially unattractive, meaning competing companies will not be motivated to try to win their customs among the poor people. Low incomers may also encounter the catastrophic user fees, even for using services which were provided free in the pre-reform period such as primary education and healthcare. A performance management mechanism is necessary to increase the government accountability for outcomes of public services. It is supportive to the goal of creating a 3E public service by having evaluations of equity, effectiveness and efficiency criteria. More importantly, it is to make sure the fulfilment of not only output objectives but also outcome objectives of public services, and to serve as the ground for benchmarking service delivery. 416 CHAPTER 6: TRANSPORT SERVICES 6.1 Executive summar y The transport services play an extremely important role in Viet Nam’s economy in general and in international trade in particular. The transport services has contributed positively to high economic growth of Viet Nam over the past decades and has helped reduce poverty through better linkages to markets, education and health facilities. Transport services are input factor of many other manufacturing and services industry. Due to geographical characteristics, transport services in Viet Nam consists of all modes of transport, including road transport, railways transport, maritime transport, air transport and inland waterways transport. Each mode of transport has different role in transport system and differences in current status and development issues. The volume of goods to be transported by all modes of transport increased from 140.7 million tons in 1995 to about 570 million tons in 2007 (Table 1); and the number of passengers increased from 564.4 million in 1995 to 1,628.9 million in 2007 (Table 2). Table1. Volumes of cargo transported by modes of transport Thousand tons Total Year 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 140709.9 157201.9 176258.8 189184.0 203112.7 223823.0 252146.0 292869.2 347232.7 403002.2 460146.3 513575.1 569534.8 Rail Road 4515.0 4041.5 4752.0 4977.6 5146.0 6258.2 6456.3 7051.9 8385.0 8873.6 8786.6 9153.2 9098.2 91202.3 103058.7 114395.1 121716.4 130480.0 144571.8 164013.7 192322.0 225296.7 264761.6 298051.3 338623.3 369776.6 Inland waterways 37653.7 40270.3 46286.2 50632.4 54538.1 57395.3 64793.5 74931.5 86012.7 97936.8 111145.9 122984.4 190529.6 Maritime Air 7306.9 9783.7 10775.4 11793.0 13006.1 15552.5 16815.3 18498.4 27448.6 31332.0 42051.5 42693.4 32.0 47.7 50.1 64.6 42.5 45.2 66.8 72.0 89.7 98.2 111.0 120.8 130.4 Viet Nam’s strategy is to be an industrial country in the year 2020; the trade relationship between Viet Nam and other countries developed very fast after Viet Nam accessed to WTO, so that transport services become much more important for the Viet Nam economy as the whole. This study under SERV-2 A analyse current status and development issues of transport services in Viet Nam; the prerequisite for stimulating transport services growth; key drivers of growth 417 and supporting infrastructure for development of the transport services. Then the study will give out the overall goals and strategic recommendations for comprehensive development of transport services; policy orientation recommendations and action plan for transport services in Viet Nam. Number of passengers transport by modes of transport Million Passengers Total Year 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 564.4 608.9 654.3 693.0 729.2 763.6 821.8 878.5 1076.0 1202.9 1349.6 1493.8 1628.9 Rail Road 8.8 8.5 9.3 9.7 9.3 9.8 10.6 10.8 11.6 12.9 12.8 11.6 11.5 441.3 478.2 514.6 549.9 587.8 620.7 677.3 727.7 931.3 1041.9 1173.4 1331.6 1464.8 Inland waterways 111.9 119.4 127.8 130.8 129.4 130.3 130.0 135.6 128.6 142.6 156.9 143.2 143.9 Air 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.9 4.4 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.4 8.7 --------------------------------------(Source of data: GDOS) 6.2 Cur r ent status and development issues of the tr anspor t ser vices in Viet Nam 6.2.1. Road transport services Services suppliers and quality of services Since implementation of “Doi moi” policy, especially after the Enterprise Law 1999 approved by the National Assembly and effected from the 01 January 2000, road transport services has developed rapidly. The most important changes are the structure of road transport services providers. Almost of services providers coming from private sector. This is partly a result of policy changes which support a multi sector economy and encourage private sector development. Currently, companies that are consisted of many kind of ownership, including households, private company, Shareholding Company and cooperatives are operating in the road transport services subsector. At present, there are about 1,050 registered companies involved in the road transportation industry. Most of them are small and medium scale companies. The privatization of the trucking 418 services has progressed so much that the role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) has been reduced to negligible levels, creating a highly competitive trucking market. The bus services is very competitive and the services are satisfactory with segmentation of the market, as some companies offer high levels of service at correspondingly higher prices, while some other companies offer lower quality of services at much lower prices. It is also notable that the role of the state in supplying of bus services has declined in favour of private sector operators, reflecting an increasingly more vibrant market-oriented industry. Road transport accounts for much of interprovincial passenger transport services, i.e., 85% and 63% in terms of passengers and passenger-kilometres, respectively. In interprovincial freight transport, the share of road transport is 68% in terms of tonnage and 15% in terms of tonkilometres. From 2000 to 2007, road traffic demand increased by 12% and 17% p.a. (for both pax-km and ton-km, respectively). The quality of long-distance passenger transport and freight transport services has been substandard. Vehicles and on-board amenities require substantial improvements. In addition, roadside facilities are not adequate. While there are many commercial facilities, such as restaurants, coffee shops, fuelling stations and hotels, these are scattered along the roads in an unorganized manner, thereby failing to provide comfort and convenience to both passengers and drivers. The development of roadside stations as an integral part of road facilities needs to be considered to enhance safety and comfort of road users, and at the same time promote local economic development. While competition is a key factor to enhance responsiveness to the market and to lower costs, there is a danger that over-competition will stifle the modernization of the truck and bus fleet. There is also a danger that operators would sacrifice safety, by overworking drivers, incentivizing reckless driving to keep up with schedules, and cost-cutting in vehicle maintenance. Mechanical failures could result in fatal accidents. It is therefore timely for the government of Viet Nam to strengthen safety and environmental standards to foster the modernization of the road transport industry. Vehicle fleet In the 1990s, the number of registered motorized vehicles rapidly increased, with high annual growth rates of 17.8% for motorcycle and 7.0% for automobile. The number of motorcycles and automobile increased from 1.2 million and 246 thousand in 1990 to 6.2 million and 484 thousand in 2000, respectively. This increase accelerated after 2000, the number of motorcycles and automobile further increased and reached more than 26 million and 1.4 million in 2008, with higher annual growth rates of 20.1% and 12.3%, respectively. In 2006, the vehicle ownership rates were 220 motorcycles and 12 automobile per 1,000 persons. In HCMC and Ha Noi, ownership rates of car and motorcycle per 1,000 persons were calculated at 37 cars and 548 419 motorcycles in HCMC and 41 cars and 349 motorcycles in Ha Noi. Using HCMC and Ha Noi as benchmarks, the vehicle ownership level of Viet Nam is expected to continue to increase as average income increases in the future. Traffic safety The numbers of vehicle increased very fast, therefore congestion levels have significantly risen not only in urban areas, especially in Ha Noi and HCMC but also on major inter-city links, such as National highway N01, N05, N018 and N051… Furthermore, there has been a significant growth in truck traffic, resulting not only to congestion but also to accelerate destroys of pavements. Due to the low quality of infrastructure and rapidly increasing of road transport flows, road traffic safety has become a very serious challenge. Road traffic accidents increased rapidly from 1990 to 2002, the peak year of traffic accidents, with an annual increase rate of 13.5%. during this 12-year period, the number of fatalities increased 5.8 times. The number of accidents, fatalities, and injuries accidents reached 27,993, 13,186 and 30,999, respectively. After 2003, the number of traffic accidents and injuries dramatically fell, although the number of fatalities remained high and relatively constant at around 12,000 per year. 6.2.2. Railway transport services The supplier In 2003, the Vietnamese government decided to introduce a separated structure for the Viet Nam Railway Federation to the Viet Nam Railway Administration (VNRA) under the Ministry of Transport and the Viet Nam Railways Corporation (VNR) under the Prime Minister. The progres