Anastasiia Ivanova Olga Kotelnikova Alina

Team:
Anastasiia Ivanova
Olga Kotelnikova
Alina Luchinina
Tatiana Rubtsova
Current strategy of Ryazan Capital Bank does not support the goal of maximizing
return on equity
Financial
results
Maximize
ROE
Revenue
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Return on Equity, 2012, %
16%
7%
Top 3,
average
Customers
Market share
Customer
Satisfaction
Tier I,
average
Financial
Health
RCB
…customer survey has
shown low customer
satisfaction with bank
operations
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2009
RCB revenue growth
Operating
Efficiency
Tier II,
average
1%
Although RCB revenue constantly grew at a higher pace
comparing to market…
2008
Internal
Processes
12%
RCB’s current strategy of
growth led to far lower
profitability in comparison
with competitors
2010
2011
Bank service revenue growth
Operating margin is steadily
recovering…
RUR, mln
…while share of provisions for NPL has
grown sharply during last 5 years
RUR, mln
IT excellence
Employee
Performance
Learning
& Growth
Workforce
Knowledge
Sources: Market Line database
 Absence of trainings and
career perspectives has led to
high staff turnover…
 …While because o high staff
turnover, employees are
unqulified
2
Current strategy of Ryazan Capital Bank does not support the goal of maximizing
return on equity
Financial
results
Maximize
ROE
Revenue
Costs
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Return on Equity, 2012, %
16%
7%
Top 3,
average
Customers
Tier I,
average
RCB
…customer survey has
shown low customer
satisfaction with bank
operations
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2008
2009
RCB revenue growth
Operating
Efficiency
Tier II,
average
1%
Although RCB revenue constantly grew at a higher pace
comparing to market…
Market share
Customer
Satisfaction
Internal
Processes
12%
RCB’s current strategy of
growth led to far lower
profitability in comparison
with competitors
Financial
Health
2010
2011
Bank service revenue growth
Operating margin is steadily
recovering…
RUR, mln
…while share of provisions for NPL has
grown sharply during last 5 years
RUR, mln
IT excellence
Employee
Performance
Learning
& Growth
Workforce
Knowledge
Sources: Market Line database
 Absence of trainings and
career perspectives has led to
high staff turnover…
 …While because o high staff
turnover, employees are
unqulified
3
Optimal solution out of several strategic options is focus on low risk borrowers.
Macroeconomic conditions suggest the target market is corporate business
Strategic options of the bank depend on the range of products it offers and the borrowers it targets
Low Risk
Narrow
Quality of borrowers
Risk
“The selected”
Targeting high risk borrowers is
unsustainable, as increase in risk
leads to high provisions and NPL
growth.
High
“Risky special”
Market
Broad
“All the trustworthy”
“Everyone welcome”
RCB needs to
focus on specific
market segment
and target
borrowers
with high
creditworthiness.
Covering broad market is
difficult, as resources are
limited.
Taking into consideration macroeconomic conditions, one should target the corporate business – the base for future growth
Oil prices will fall
USD/barrel
Government
(budget)
income will
decrease
Ruble is going to weaken
RUR/USD
Costs of
import will
rise,
increasing
costs of
production
Both corporate and retail crediting will fall. We need to finance
business: if it has financial resources, it will be able to grow and pay its
employees more. Then population’s consumption will rise.
GDP growth will decrease
Real income of population
will decrease
Inflation will
rise
Political risks make situation worse.
Long-term forecast is around 2%.
Source: EIU Economic and Commodity Forecast, December 2013, RBC, Agency of Economics Forecasting
Nominal
income will
increase, but
with slower
pace
4
New strategy involves two steps: developing SME business and cross-selling retail
products to SME employees
RCB’s strategy is sustainable profitable growth as a regional bank by supporting
SMEs and their staff in increasing their wealth
“Growing together
with clients!”
2014 - 2015
2016 - 2018
Product portfolio
•
Corporate business
Developing SME segment actively
Providing individual solutions to large
companies
Maintaining SME business growth
Providing individual solutions to large
companies
•
Retail business
Optimizing existing loan portfolio
Increasing non-interest income
Going digital
Growing retail business actively
by using strong links with employees of
SMEs (cross-selling)
Growth
Supporting growth by gradual geographical expansion to key regions
Operational efficiency
Investing in staff, modernization of
offices & IT system
Improving cost efficiency
Financial health
Restoring financial stability
Improving risk management
Increasing capital to finance active
development of retail business
5
In corporate business, RCB should focus on small and medium enterprises,
as they will develop and be the growth driver of the market
SME segment is developing faster than large clients
business, but RCB underperforms in both of them
SMEs have big potential for development in Russia
Loans to large companies
Russia
+21%
bn RUR
RCB
+58%
1,0
35.000
30.248
28.406
30.000
0,5
19.089
25.000
20.658
5
8
7
6
2009
2010
2011
2012
0,0
0
Loans to SMEs
+75%
Russia
+130%
RCB
bn RUR
6.943
1,0
4.705
0,5
3.015
0,0
7.000
6.000
5.000
4.000
6.056
1
2
2
2
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
Entrepreneurship climate in
Russia
is improving
(Doing Business 2014 Rating)
92
111
RCB needs to focus on SME segment offering both
short and long term loans on competitive conditions
(see example in Appendix 1). By 2018 SME loans
should account for 75% of corporate loan portfolio.
These clients will form the customer base for further
development in retail.
RCB should continue to work with large corporate
clients on individual basis.
Sources: RCB, Central Bank of Russia, Sberbank, SME Bank, Opora Rossiyi
6
In retail portfolio, RCB should focus on perspective mortgage and credit
cards market and decrease share of stagnating car loans
Light commercial vehicles market stagnates that diminishes
growth of car loans
4 USD, bn
50%
50%
11%
2
-69%
0
2008
2009
Credit sales
2010
Cash sales
2011
100%
50%
0%
-50%
-100%
2012
Credit sale growth
RCB possesses unbalanced retail loan portfolio, comparing
to peers from Tier I and Tier II, and should rebalance it
120%
100%
5%
3%
2%
80%
44%
Mortgage market in Russia is unsaturated that gives high
potential to develop
63%
60%
Mortgage loans, % GDP
93%
40%
50%
20%
28%
0%
RCB
Car loans
2%
Tier I
Personal loans
5%
Mortgages
Tier II
Credit cards
Non-mortgage loans, % GDP
Credit card market has the highest potential among
consumer loans
RUR, bn
4000
CAGR
= 32%
3000
2000
1000
0
205,8
2008
671,3
367,8
227,6
192,9
2009
2010
2011
2012
Credit cards
Other personal loans
837,4

RCB’ s portfolio consists mostly on car loans that
makes it vulnerable to shrinking of this market;

RCB ignores other possibilities to attract borrowers,
such as growing markets of mortgages and credit
cards, that may lead to opportunities loss.
2013
Sources: Alfa Bank Annual Report 2012, EY Automotive Survey 2013, Central Bank Reports, Tinkoff Credit System Report 2013
7
RCB needs to look for new financing opportunities to cover the gap
between loans and deposits, as deposit market is projected to slow down
Loans at RCB portfolio has been growing faster than deposits,
resulting in unavailability to cover issued loans
RUR, mln
35
2,546
30
Market deposits
3,000
RCB deposits
20
+143%
2,000
1,277
15
13.434
1,500
1,084
0,849
10
11.061
1,000
9.250
0,500
5
0
0,000
2008Y
+39%
2,500
1,910
25
Moreover, RCB deposit portfolio growth is far beyond
market growth
2009Y
Loans
2010Y
Deposits
2011Y
5.524
2012Y
Deposits/Loans
Because of current license revocation of several banks, extremely
low trust level to commercial banks will decrease even more
6.999
18
2008
16
2009
19
2010
24
2011
25
2012
RCB deposit rates are lower than average in the market,
meaning attracting less customers
“Do you trust Russian financial institutions?”
RCB
Tier II
Tier I
Interest rate, %
4,0%
5,0%
6,0%
7,0%
8,0%
9,0%
10,0%
To attract new deposits RCB should:
Adjust deposit rates to those of the competitors;
Sell bank warranties on the security of the deposits;
Introduce new products:
 Investment deposits / “income cards”
Sources: Central Bank Reports, National Agency of Financial Research survey
8
RCB should partner with asset management company to introduce open-end
mutual funds in its product portfolio to create new income channel
Growing trend in open-end mutual funds’ net assets
value and net inflow shows their future potential
% of Tier 2 banks offering investment services
NAV
120
Net inflow
95
100
75
80
60
Nevertheless, few Tier 2 banks offer investment
products like mutual funds to their clients
113
83
87
Mutual funds
20
None
10
38%
0
47
13%
Brokerage
25%
-10
40
20
-20
0
-30
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
63%
Depositary
*Sum may not equal 100%, as some banks offer several services
Moreover, among various investment products mutual
funds are crucial to retain customers in the long run
Acting as a mutual funds agent, RCB can create
new profit sources and extend its customer base
Effective time period of investing, years
Introduction of open-end mutual funds in bank’s
product portfolio will lead to the following
advantages:
•Additional income from asset management
company’s commission
•Customer attraction and retention
•Opportunities for cross-selling:
- investment deposits
- loans secured by mutual funds shares
Current accounts 0-1
Deposits
Mutual funds
Pension insurance
0,5-2
2 - 10
> 10
Sources: eXceeding eXpectations analysis, investfunds.ru, Absolut bank annual report
9
Geographical expansion should continue to support growth, but market
potential for both corporate and retail segments should be taken into account
The key regions for RCB in terms of assets and
income are Ryazan, Moscow and Vologda
27%
31%
However, there are other regions with big
potential for both corporate and retail segments
Moscow
Average income, th. RUR
St. Petersburg
49.000
Vologda
29.000
10%
8%
Arkhangelsk
14%
13%
Tver
27.000
Rostov
26.000
Ryazan
25.000
Krasnodar
24.000
4%
5%
4%
26%
2%
2%
6%
Weighted assets
4%
5%
4%
25%
3%
2%
6%
Nizhny Novgorod
Yaroslavl
Operating Income
RCB should:
•Increase its operations in high potential regions –
Moscow and St. Petersburg
•Expand to high potential regions – Kazan, Samara,
Ufa, Perm
•Keep operations in low potential regions significant
for RCB - Vologda
•Leave low potential regions that do not contribute
much to the portfolio – Tver and Yaroslavl
Sources: Expert Rating Agency, Rosstat
Moscow
Moscow region
Murmansk
28.000
Samara
Arkhangelsk
23.000
Kazan
Perm
Belgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
Makhachkala
Krasnodar
Kaluga
Ufa
22.000
21.000
20.000
Petrozavodsk
19.000
18.000
St. Peterburg
Syktyvkar
Vologda
Ryazan
17.000
Yaroslavl
Rostov
Tver
16.000
15.000
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5 5,5
6,0 15,5
Investment attractiveness
(Expert Rating)
10
RCB should reconsider sales channels budgeting, as well as clients perception of dayto-day operations to implement offered strategy successfully
Sales channels structure should be reconsidered in order to
support new product portfolio…
120%
Product
Sales
share
Products
…that will lead to new budget structure
split by channels
Product Sales Channels
100%
80%
Corporate
products
55%
66,09%
Retail products 33,70%
10%
30%
35%
20%
30%5%
25%
5%
10%
25%
15%
25%10%
60%
0,21%
5%
Branches
5%
80%
80%
Cross-sell
5%
Call-center
10%
5% 10%
0%
Internet
25%
8%
6%
7%
40%
20%
Investment
products
40%
50%
8%
18%
29%
8,43%
0%
DSA
Costs 2012
DSA
Internet
Costs 2018
Call-center
Cross-sell
Branches
Value gap analysis of bank operations by clients has shown that the most critical area is staff performance,
while other areas also require attention
points*
Internet banking
Mobile banking
Branches
Staff performance
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
User-friendliness
Product portfolio
available
Product portfolio
available
Design
Common Image
RCB
Waiting time
Staff attentiveness
Staff expertise
Tier II
*points for Tier II banks were assigned according to banki.ru survey, while points for RCB were assigned according to information
given
11
RCB should invest and create opportunities for operations excellence
Because sellers are main drivers of revenue, it is necessary
to analyze ratios for sellers in different offices
Income/seller
Motivation system of sellers should be based both on base
salary in accordance to the region and on KPI
Employee compensation
Opex/seller
60,00
50,00
40,00
30,00
20,00
10,00
0,00
(KPI achieved- KPI
planned) * $
Base salary
Salary in banks, rosstat 2012
 Total system of remuneration should be reconsidered and be
balanced in all the branches
 Branches with high ratios should share their experience
IT system as an important part of operations excellence
should be analyzed
Internet and
mobile
banking
 Poor system
structure
 Investment into
technology
superiority
Database
 Absence of
centralized
database
 Investment into
advanced
database
Automated
banking
system
 Only manual
process
 Investment into
ABS
Yaroslavl
N.Novgorod
Krasnodar
Ryazan
Rostov
Tver
Arkhangelsk
Vologda
St.Petersburg
Moscow
45770
28512
15846
33757
21022
28887
31252
18506
34158
31287
0
KPI for sellers and tellers
 New accounts per seller
 New accounts per tellers
 Existing current accounts
per operations employee
 Customers per employee
20000 40000 60000
 Customer attrition rate
RCB should introduce new IT system and plan its expense
according to the benchmark with other banks
OPEX
IT
IT share in OPEX
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
12
To meet capital requirements, RCB should establish proper risk
management system
From 2014 Central Bank introduces new capital
requirements according to Basel III
Capital
Car
loans
Risk-weighted assets
 Common Equity Tier 1
Limit – 5%
 Tier 1 Capital
Limit – 5,5%, from 2015Y – 6%
 Total Capital
Limit –10%
Tier 1&2
RCB
Tier 1&2
Personal
loans
RCB
Interest rate, %
At the same time high risk leads to an increase
in NPL and high provisions
Provisions, bn RUR
In RCB high borrowers’ risk is compensated by high
interest rates in comparison with Tier 1 & 2 banks
High interest rates lead to higher credit risk capital
requirements and raise risk-weighted assets, while
high provisions reduce residual earnings being part
of capital
+71%
Capital
Risk-weighted assets
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
RCB should install proper risk-management based on scoring system and reduce risk premium to lower
interest rates in order to attract high-end customers and create sound loan portfolio
13
Proposed measures will be implemented during the next two years and
will increase operating profit by 9 times by 2018
Most actions will be implemented within next 2 years
2013
Actions
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
ABS introduction
Centralized database
Front- and back office programs
Mobile banking applications (IOS, Android)
Internet banking for retail and corporate clients
Branch rebranding
Current situation analysis
New design creation and implementation
Staff motivation program
New motivation system
Trainings & learning
Risk management system
Revision of current credit risk policy
New policy based on new requirements
Product portfolio optimization
New regions expansion
14
Implementation of proposed initiatives will improve key financial indicators
significantly and generate 3,74 bn RUR NPV
At the same time net interest margin will rise by
26%
Financial ratios ROE and ROA will increase by
2018
ROE
7,4%
ROA
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Operating profit is gradually increasing as well,
while the efficiency ratio is declining
Efficiency ratio
9X
81%
2
86%
87%
80%
2,9
72%
67%
100%
55%
50%
1
2013
6,2%
6,4%
7,2%
5,3%
5,9%
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Proposed initiatives will lead to positive NPV
generation of 3,74 bn RUR till 2018
Operating profit, bn RUR
3
5,7%
1,4%
1,0% 0,7%
2012
Net interest margin
+26,2%
0,3
0
0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Assumptions:
1. Initial investments
will consist of
automated banking
system embedding
and branch
rebranding and will
account for 0,078 bn
RUR
2. WACC = 12%
NPV
3,74 billion RUR
till 2018
15
The project was prepared by team
Tatiana Rubtsova
High Quality
Education
Diverse
Experience
Multiple Victories
Alina Luchinina
Anastasia Ivanova
Olga Kotelnikova
tatiana.rubtsova@mail.ru
8 906 279 4249
luchinina.alina@gmail.com
8 904 633 6445
ivanova.anastasia@aol.com
8 965 059 8749
olga.vlad.kotelnikova@gmail.com
8 911 818 7829
Graduate School of Management, SPbSU
Master in Corporate Finance
Exchange semester in EmLyon Business
School (France)
Exchange semester in Turku University of
Applied Sciences (Finland)
Graduate School of Management, SPbSU
Master in Corporate Finance/ CEMS MIM
Graduate School of Management, SPbSU
Master in Corporate Finance/ CEMS MIM
Graduate School of Management, SPbSU
Master in Corporate Finance/ CEMS MIM
Exchange semester in Erasmus University,
Rotterdam School of Management
(Netherlands)
Exchange semester in Louvain School of
Management (Belgium)
Exchange semester in Copenhagen Business
School (Denmark)
Handle Group – financial analyst
Internships:
Colgate-Palmolive – Finance Department
Oodji Company – Finance Department
Rosno Allianz – corporate clients
Consulting project for Ahlers
Internships:
Deloitte – consulting Strategy&Operations,
Maersk Line - Finance Department
UniCreditBank
Consulting project for Sberbank of Russia
EVLI Corporate Finance – analyst (M&A)
Internships:
TransCreditBank– crediting large corporate
clients
Consulting project for Indesit
Internships:
Colgate-Palmolive - Finance Department
Consulting company “Alt”
Consulting project for Indesit
Winner:
Changellenge Cup SPb 2013
Scientific Conference “State Order” and
“Social Advertising”
2nd place:
Changellenge Cup Russia 2013
Winner:
Changellenge Cup SPb 2013
KPMG International Case Competition 2013
Saint-Petersburg Stage
2nd place:
Changellenge Cup Russia 2013
Winner:
Changellenge Cup SPb 2013
KPMG International Case Competition 2013
Saint-Petersburg Stage
2nd place:
•Changellenge Cup Russia 2013
Winner:
Changellenge Cup SPb 2013,
Changellenge Cup Technical 2013,
KPMG International Case Competition 2013
Saint-Petersburg Stage
2nd place:
Changellenge Cup Russia 2013
16
Appendix 1. Key products’ description
Retail
Product
Mortgage
Car loan
Loan amount
750,000 –
30,000,000
100,000 –
4,000,000
RUR
Loan
duration
2 years – 25
years
Commission
SME
Consumer
loan
Credit card
Short-term
Long-term
50,000 –
1,000,000
RUR
(10,000,000
RUR with
collateral)
10,000 –
100,000 RUR
150,000 –
15,000,000
RUR
300,000 –
150,000,000
RUR
6 month – 5
years
From 3
month to five
years
Up to 6
month
Up to 1 year
1 year – 5
years
None
None
None
None
None
None
Application
review time
Three days
Two days
One day
One hour
Two days
One week
Initial
payment
10%
15%
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Interest rate
10,5%- 14%
11,5%-15%
17%-22,5%
20%-30%
From 12,75%
From 13,25%
17
Appendix 2. Forecast of the loan portfolio structure 2013-2018
Retail loans
Car loans
% of Total
Personal loans
% of Total
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
0
3,71
12,13
18,93
19,24
18,75
17,22
14,41
10,18
4,59
0%
85%
90%
93%
79%
65%
51%
38%
24%
10%
1,71
0,67
1,3
1,49
2,50
3,80
5,41
7,32
9,44
11,47
100%
15%
10%
7%
10%
13%
16%
19%
22%
25%
Mortgage
-
-
-
-
2,44
5,76
10,06
15,34
21,41
27,52
% of Total
-
-
-
-
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Credit cards
-
-
-
-
0,24
0,48
0,78
1,15
1,57
2,29
% of Total
-
-
-
-
1%
2%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Total retail
1,71
Growth
% Total loans
21%
4,38
13,43
20,42
24,38
28,79
33,53
38,35
42,81
45,86
156%
207%
52%
19%
18%
16%
14%
12%
7%
30%
61%
70%
63%
57%
50%
43%
37%
30%
Corporate loans
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
SME loans
1,3
1,81
1,61
2,27
3,81
7,13
14,88
26,95
45,75
80,26
% of Total
0,20
0,18
0,19
0,26
0,32
0,40
0,48
0,56
0,65
0,75
Large loans
5,32
8,45
7,03
6,43
8,1
10,6
15,9
20,8
25,1
26,8
% of Total
0,80
0,82
0,81
0,74
0,68
0,60
0,52
0,44
0,35
0,25
Total corporate
6,63
10,26
8,64
8,7
11,92
17,76
30,81
47,74
70,82
107,01
55%
-16%
1%
37%
49%
73%
55%
48%
51%
79%
70%
39%
30%
31%
35%
46%
54%
61%
70%
8,34
14,64
22,07
29,12
38,44
50,74
66,98
88,41
116,70
152,87
76%
51%
32%
32%
32%
32%
32%
32%
31%
Growth
% Total loans
Total loans
Growth
18
Appendix 3. Forecast of the funding sources 2013-2018
Funding
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Deposits
15,83
18,7
23,94
24,72
33,4
45,1
60,7
81,6
109,5
146,8
% of Total
0,94
0,88
0,87
0,70
0,73
0,77
0,80
0,83
0,87
0,9
1
2,56
3,44
10,67
12,2
13,8
15,3
16,4
16,9
16,3
0,06
0,12
0,13
0,30
0,27
0,23
0,20
0,17
0,13
0,1
16,83
21,26
27,38
35,39
45,7
58,9
76,0
98,0
126,4
163,1
26%
29%
29%
29%
29%
29%
29%
29%
29%
Other funding
% of Total
Total funding
Growth
19
Appendix 4. Interest rates conditions for loans and deposits. Forecast for noninterest income from mutual funds
Interest rates loans
Car loans
13,25%
Personal loans
19,75%
Mortgage
12,25%
Credit cards
25%
SME loans
14%
Large
8,3%
Interest rate deposits
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
7,25%
7,50%
8%
8,25%
8,50%
9%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
21
21
21
21
21
21
6
8
10
13
16
20
№ of people attracted per year
1512
2016
2520
3276
4032
5040
№ of people left
302,4
403,2
504
655,2
806,4
1008
Net amount of people
1210
1613
2016
2621
3226
4032
6048000
9676800
14112000
20966400
29030400
40320000
90720
145152
211680
314496
435456
604800
Discount (2%)
120960
193536
282240
419328
580608
806400
Basic Remuneration (3%)
181440
290304
423360
628992
870912
1209600
Total remuneration, bn RUB
0,0004
0,0006
0,0009
0,0014
0,0019
0,0026
Deposits
Mutual funds
№ of branches
№ of people attracted per month per branch
Net asset value
Premium (1,5%)
20
Appendix 5. Forecast of interest and non-interest income and expenses 2013-2018
2009
0,323
0,00
Total retail
Car loans
0,99
0,18
17%
0,82
34%
1,62
1,054
0,20
12%
0,86
5%
2,85
1,103
0,29
47%
0,82
-5%
4,17
1,20
0,53
85%
0,67
-18%
4,61
2014
4,06
2,49
-3%
0,75
52%
0,71
136%
0,12
97%
1,88
1,00
87%
0,88
31%
5,94
0,52
0,57
0,91
0,80
4%
0,11
125%
1,14
0,22
57%
0,31
0,92
1,29
1,13
41%
0,16
48%
1,94
0,43
95%
0,33
1,51
1,86
1,30
15%
0,56
246%
2,69
1,17
172%
0,68
1,52
3,06
2,42
87%
0,64
14%
1,93
0,35
43%
0,19
1,58
3,95
3,38
40%
0,73
14%
2,37
0,40
35%
0,18
1,97
5,10
4,86
44%
0,81
11%
3,46
0,55
32%
0,20
2,91
6,58
6,73
39%
0,87
7%
4,82
0,70
30%
0,19
4,12
8,48
9,31
38%
0,90
3%
6,60
0,85
28%
0,19
5,75
10,94
12,84
38%
0,87
-3%
9,70
1,10
25%
0,17
8,60
0,095
0,087
0,182
0,117
0,181
0,3
0,019
-0,053
-0,034
0,034
-0,118
-0,08
0,036
-0,086
-0,05
0,039
-0,039
0
0,043
-0,033
0,01
0,046
0,004
0,05
0,051
-0,011
0,04
0,057
0,043
0,1
% growth
Personal loans
2010
0,62
0,53
-
0,32
% growth
0,10
-70%
2011
1,792
1,62
207%
0,17
82%
2012
3,063
2,84
75%
0,22
29%
2013
3,40
2,55
-10%
0,49
121%
0,30
Mortgage
% growth
-
% growth
-
Credit cards
0,06
Total corporate
SME loans
0,764
0,15
% growth
Large companies
0,61
% growth
Total loan income
1,09
Interest expense (bn RUR)
Deposits
0,82
0,77
% growth
Other funding
0,05
% growth
NII before provisioning
Provision expense
% growth
% operating income
NII
Net fee and commision income
Other non-interest income
Total non-interest income
0,71
0,14
2015
4,78
2,28
-8%
1,07
42%
1,23
75%
0,20
63%
3,40
2,08
109%
1,31
50%
8,18
2016
5,52
1,91
-16%
1,45
35%
1,88
52%
0,29
47%
5,49
3,77
81%
1,72
31%
11,01
2017
6,23
1,35
-29%
1,86
29%
2,62
40%
0,39
36%
8,47
6,41
70%
2,07
21%
14,70
2018
6,82
0,61
-55%
2,26
21%
3,37
29%
0,57
46%
13,44
11,24
75%
2,21
7%
20,26
21
Appendix 6. Forecast of operating income, operating expense and net income 20132018
Operating income (bn RUR)
0,27
OPEX (bn RUR)
0,71
1,31
1,73
1,87
2,19
2,81
3,62
4,59
6,37
164%
83%
32%
8%
17%
28%
29%
27%
39%
0,848
1,219
1,408
1,61
1,90
2,24
2,61
3,10
3,49
56%
44%
16%
15%
18%
18%
17%
19%
13%
0,525
0,696
0,741
0,82
0,96
1,14
1,36
1,62
1,80
68%
33%
6%
10%
18%
19%
19%
19%
19%
57%
62%
57%
53%
50%
51%
51%
52%
52%
52%
0,018
0,014
0,025
0,049
0,05
0,10
0,12
0,15
0,20
0,25
-22%
79%
96%
2%
2%
3%
3%
5%
5%
6%
6%
7%
0,07
0,09
0,15
0,19
0,28
0,35
4%
4,7%
6,7%
7,3%
9%
10%
0,544
Employee remuneration
0,312
% growth
% of OPEX
Advertising
% growth
% of OPEX
3%
IT
% of OPEX (based on benchmark)
Other
0,214
0,309
0,498
0,618
0,68
0,75
0,82
0,90
1,00
1,09
44%
61%
24%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
39%
36%
41%
44%
42%
39%
37%
35%
32%
31%
-0,27
-0,13
0,09
0,32
0,25
0,29
0,57
1,02
1,50
2,88
Income tax
0,20
0,20
0,20
0,20
0,20
0,20
0,20
Net income
0,26
0,20
0,24
0,46
0,81
1,20
2,30
% growth
% of OPEX
Operating profit (bn RUR)
22