October 2012
Transcription
October 2012
Contents DCCI Review October 31th 2012 Chamber Views 01 BUILD Activities 06 Chamber News National Economy SAARC News Asia-Pacific News Monthly Bulletin of the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce & Industry (In-house Circulation Only) Vol. XXXII No. 32 (October 01 to October 31, 2012) Published on 17 November, 2012 Middle East News International News 02 07 17 20 24 27 xÄmJh KmKY©J 32 Trade Information 38 Currency/Share Pictorial 37 39 MEMBERS OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS PRESIDENT Mr. Asif Ibrahim REVIEW ADVISORY BOARD SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT Founder Chairman Late Nuruddin Ahmed DIRECTORS Dr. Mizanur Rahman Shelley Mr. Haider Ahmed Khan, FCA Mr. M. Bashir Ullah Bhuiyan Mr. Mahabub Anam Mr. T. I. M. Nurul Kabir Mr. Waqar Ahmad Choudhury Mr. ASM Mohiuddin Monem Mr. Osman Gani Mr. Khairul Majid Mahmud Mr. K.M.N. Manjurul Hoque Mr. Abul Hossain Mr. Osama Taseer Mr. Md. Iftekharuddin (Naushad) Mr. K. G. Karim Mr. Absar Karim Chowdhury Mr. M. Abu Horaira Mr. Kh. Shahidul Islam Mr. Hossain A. Sikder Chairman Members Mr. Sayed Kamaluddin Mr. Moazzem Hossain Mr. A S M Quasem Mr. Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury Mr. M. A. Momen Mr. Hossain Khaled Published by : Dhaka Chamber of Commerce & Industry (DCCI) 65-66 Motijheel Commercial Area Dhaka-1000, Phone : 9552562 (Hunting) Fax : 880-2-9560830 E-mail : info@dhakachamber.com secretary@dhakachamber.com Web Site : http://www.dhakachamber.com Chamber Views DCCI Review October 31th 2012 Businesses: challenges and opportunities If the International Finance Corporation (IFC) ranking is any indicator, Bangladesh has to worry about the higher cost of doing business in the country. In the IFC's “Doing Business 2013” report, Bangladesh has ranked 129th among 185 countries, down from its 124th position in 2012. In addition, it has ranked last in terms of being the country in which it is most difficult to get an electricity connection. According to the report, it takes well over a year—404 days, to be precise—and nine procedures, to get an electricity connection in the country. In the case of enforcing contracts, it takes 1,442 days and 41 procedures. One of the few positives of the report in the context of Bangladesh, even with the country falling three notches in that respect, is its sharing of credit information, through online access to data at credit registry or bureau. Bangladesh's steady decline in the rankings over the years is cause for serious concern. While countries such as India have remained in a steady position and made several reforms over the years, it seems to be becoming more and more difficult to do business in Bangladesh. The latest blow has come in the form of amendment of a law to appoint administrators for companies, a measure the country's business community sees as controlling and unilateral, further hindering the growth of business. In order for Bangladesh to become a bigger and stronger economy, businesses must be allowed to thrive. For this to happen, domestic investment constraints must be mitigated, and these include, among other things, the adequate supply of electricity, improved infrastructure and policy reform designed to minimise bureaucratic complexities and make doing business in the country quick, cost effective and as hassle-free as possible, and not to mention improved law-and-order situation. Bangladesh recorded a steep fall of 10 points to 118 out of 144 countries in the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) 2012-13. Brought out by the World Economic Forum, the index is based on a survey of 14,000 industrialists and business leaders that included 87 medium and large companies in the country. Indicators that helped plunge Bangladesh's ranking include the sorry state of infrastructure, inadequate access to finance and rampant corruption. The results were not altogether surprising given the financial meltdown the capital market suffered at the end of 2010, from which the country is yet to recover. The rising cost of doing business, with “speed money” or bribes being a regular feature of securing new contracts, coupled with the growing perception within the business community about the government's failure to maintain proper regulatory control in the banking sector—all led to tip the scales against Bangladesh's favour in the GCI. Nagging problems with the country's power generation helped further erode confidence, particularly in the backdrop of significant financial commitments to the sector and the spiralling power tariff, which has made production more expensive and raised concerns of weak macroeconomic management. The fact that there has been little in the way of improvement—be it the sorry state of road transport, or ensuring proper gas supply, or initiating proper regulatory monitoring of the country's bourses—points to a deteriorating state of governance in the country. The four evils of poor infrastructure, corruption, lack of access to finance and political instability do not bode well for improving the investment climate in Bangladesh. With multiple banking scams that have rocked the nation in 2012 and corruption charges levelled against high-level public officials on the alleged Padma Bridge graft, the halfhearted attempts to plug the loopholes in the system, let alone bring those guilty to book, are tantamount to sending a wrong signal to potential global investors. Bangladesh still has competitive advantage in labour, language and support services. Many new investors want land in and around Dhaka and Chittagong. They are reluctant to go for other areas even in the EPZs in north and south Bangladesh, due to absence of other facilities and high transport costs. Since Bangladesh has experience in running EPZs, experts suggest that either existing EPZs in and around Dhaka and Chittagong be expanded or new ones set up in those areas. The Board of Investment (BoI) needs to be more efficient and better equipped to provide one-stop services, including various approvals necessary to allow investment to be easier. 1 Chamber News DCCI Review October 31th 2012 DCCI chief seeks more trade ties with Belarus A business meeting between DCCI and a 23-member high-powered trade delegation from Belarus was held at DCCI on October 9. Vitaly Prima, Ambassador-designate of Belarus to India and Sri Lanka led the delegation. Asif Ibrahim, President of DCCI, chaired the meeting. Asif Ibrahim while welcoming the delegation said, the economic and commercial relations between Bangladesh and Belarus have been growing steadily over the years. The volume of bilateral trade has not seen much improvement despite tremendous potentials for expanding and diversifying trade between the two countries. He also called for establishing Belarusian embassy in Dhaka. The DCCI chief invited the Belarusian investors to invest in food and fruit processing, paper and pulp from jute, gas-based industries, power, renewable energy, IT, leather and leather goods, ceramics, pharmaceuticals, electronics, light engineering, steel, infrastructure development, education and tourism sector in Bangladesh. He assured the delegation of full cooperation from DCCI in this regard. Leader of the delegation Vitaly Prima said, the economic relationship between Bangladesh and Belarus has become stronger. He said, Bangladesh can use expertise and technology along modern machineries of Belarus for increasing and diversification of more products. Director General (Europe) of Ministry of Foreign Affairs M Riaz Hamidullah said that bilateral trade relations between Bangladesh and Belarus have been growing. Belarus is keen to establish its Bangladesh. business units in Regarding establishment of Belarusian Embassy in Dhaka, he informed that the issue is in consideration of Belarus. DCCI Directors M. Bashir Ullah Bhuiyan, ASM Mohiuddin Monem, Khairul Majid Mahmud, K.M.N. Manjurul Hoque, Osama Taseer, K. G. Karim, M. Abu Horaira were present during the meeting. There are immense potentials for trade and export between the two countries, sources said, adding that if the potentials could be tapped, both the nations would be benefited. Belarus is also eager to establish a joint commission on trade and economic cooperation, officials say. DCCI President Asif Ibrahim (second from left) seen addressing a business meeting between DCCI and the Belarusian trade delegation at DCCI on October 9. Ambassador Designate of Belarus to India and Sri Lanka Vitaly Prima (centre), DG (Europe) of Ministry of Foreign Affairs M Riaz Hamidullah (second from right) and DCCI Director K G Karim (left) are also seen in the picture. Chamber News DCCI Review October 31th 2012 DCCI, BUILD and Trust Bank organise seminar on SMEs Panellists at a seminar of the third D-8 ministerial meeting have stressed the need for formation of a common fund, technology transfer and initiating concentrated programme to promote small and medium enterprises (SMEs) among the countries. DCCI, in cooperation with Business Initiative Leading Development (BUILD) and Trust Bank Ltd, organised the seminar titled 'SMEs - a Catalyst of D-8 Economy' in Dhaka city. Industries Minister Dilip Barua was the chief guest at the seminar, presided over by DCCI president Asif Ibrahim. D8 Secretary General Widi Agoes Pratikto, among others, was also present. The programme had three presentations on the present scenario of SMEs of the D-8 countries 'Bangladesh perspective and scope of co-operation' by director general of Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management Dr Toufic Ahmad Choudhury, 'Public-private dialogue for private sector development' by CEO of BUILD Ferdaus Ara Begum, and 'SME Financing' by head of SME of Trust Bank Limited TIM Rawshan Zadeed. Dilip Barua said the D-8 can be the forum of technology transfer and can offer fund for joint ventures to boost SMEs of the eight countries. Explaining the SME scenario in the country, the minister said the SMEs face obstacles in getting access to finance despite the central bank's directive of having SME booth in every branch of banks. "Banks and financial institutions prefer providing loan to big entrepreneurs, but it is the time to change this mindset." Combination of access to loan and use of technology can help the SMEs, the backbone of the nation, to grow accordingly, he said. He also stressed the need for conducting more research, so that the country's SME sector can compete with that of other countries. DCCI President Asif Ibrahim (right) addressing a seminar on SMEs: a Catalyst of D-8 Economy organized by DCCI in cooperation with BUILD and Trust Bank Ltd. on October 8 at Ruposhi Bangla Hotel. Industries Minister Dilip Barua (third from left), DCCI Senior Vice President Haider Ahmed Khan, FCA (third from right), Managing Director & CEO of Trust Bank Ltd. Shah Alam Sarwar (second from left), CEO of BUILD Ferdaus Ara Begum (second from right) are also seen in the picture. Asif Ibrahim said except a few fertiliser factories, pharmaceuticals, cement factories, steel mills and telecom operators, all other business entities in Bangladesh are SMEs. The number of these SMEs in the country has been estimated at about six million, about 75 per cent of which are located in rural areas and producing around 50 per cent of the country's industrial output each year. These SMEs are also generating the highest number of employment, producing low-cost quality products, contributing to import substitution and saving foreign currency. "Financing the productive capacity of the economy is critical to long-term economic success of the SMEs. While large businesses have various options open to them, including the capital market, the SMEs are heavily dependant on the banking system," he added. The DCCI president said access to strategic financial advice is one of the biggest challenges that the SMEs face. The SMEs in the country are labour- intensive following abundant supply of cost-efficient labour. But higher costs of fund are deterring the sector to grow to its fullest level. Poor infrastructure and utility supply, unavailability of collateral-free bank loan, limited access to information, traditional technology, low productivity of labour, lack of entrepreneurship development programme and skilled manpower, complicated bureaucratic procedures, and lack of marketing knowledge etc are the barriers or challenges that the SMEs in Bangladesh face. Besides, high interest rate of bank loan, lack of government support in finding export market, lack of testing facility, loose imposition of IP law, absence of skilled channel of distribution to ensure fare price of growers, and absence of SME support centres are also hindering their growth, he mentioned. Shah Alam Sarwar, managing director and CEO of Trust Bank Ltd, stressed the need for expansion of banking activities in the rural areas, as a large number of SMEs are located in those areas. 3 Chamber News DCCI Review October 31th 2012 DCCI hosts luncheon in honour of D-8 delegation President of DCCI Asif Ibrahim (right) speaking at the Luncheon hosted by DCCI in honour of the visiting D-8 delegation in Dhaka on October 10 at Ruposhi Bangla Hotel. Industries Minister Dilip Barua (fourth from left), President of ICC-Bangladesh & former President of DCCI Mahbubur Rahman (left), Minister for Industry, Mine and Trade of Iran Mahdi Ghazanfari, Deputy Minister for Industry of Turkey Davut Kavranoglu, Advisor to the Prime Minister of Pakistan Raza Muhammad Basharat, Secretary General of D-8 Secretariat Dr. Widi Pratikto (third from right) are also seen in the picture. DCCI hosted a luncheon in honour of the visiting D-8 delegations on October 10, 2012 at Ruposhi Bangla Hotel, Dhaka. Welcoming the delegation, DCCI President Asif Ibrahim said that the event like this would play a pivotal role for the development of private sector of D-8 countries. He also said that D-8 Ministerial conference on industry will surely boost economic cooperation among the D-8 countries. He hoped Dhaka Declaration 2012 will be a milestone of the success of D-8. Industries Minister of Bangladesh Dilip Barua thanked DCCI for hosting luncheon in honour of visiting members of the D-8 countries. He also stressed on technology transfer, market expansion and establishment of common economic fund among the D-8 countries. Dr. Widi A. Pratikto, Secretary General of D-8 Secretariat also spoke on the occasion. Minister for Industry, Mine and Trade of Iran Mahdi Ghazanfari, Deputy DCCI expresses deep concern over attack on Buddhists DCCI has expressed its deep concern over vandalism in and sudden attacks on Buddhist zone at Ramu in Cox's Bazar. 4 DCCI expressed deep concern and strongly condemned the attack, vandalism and torching of Buddhist and Hindu temples and houses at Ramu, Cox's Bazar recently. It said Bangladesh is a country of communal harmony. Muslims and the people from different minority communities have been living in peace in the country for ages. Minister for Industry of Turkey Davut Kavranoglu, Advisor to the Prime Minister of Pakistan Raza Muhammad Basharat, President of ICC-B Mahbubur Rahman, DCCI Senior Vice President Haider Ahmed Khan, FCA, Directors Waqar Ahmad Choudhury, ASM Mohiuddin Monem, Khairul Majid Mahmud, Osama Taseer, M Abu Horaira, Kh. Shahidul Islam, Hossain A Sikder, former Presidents R Maksud Khan, MH Rahman and Benajir Ahmed were present at the luncheon. DCCI also demanded exemplary punishment of the culprits. DCCI felt that government and law enforcing agency should play more vigilant role to protect the Buddhists and their monasteries. Chamber News DCCI Review October 31th 2012 DCCI signs MoU with Jilin Chamber of Commerce of China Dhaka Chamber of Commerce & Industry (DCCI) and Chinese General Chamber of Commerce of Jilin province signed a Friendly Association Agreement on October 16 at DCCI. DCCI Acting President Haider Ahmed Khan, FCA and President of Chinese General Chamber of Commerce of Jilin Province Bie Shengzue signed the agreement on behalf of their respective organizations. Haider Ahmed Khan thanked the delegation members for visiting DCCI. He urged the Chinese Investors to invest in food and food processing, paper and pulp from jute, gas-based industries, power, renewable energy and backward linkage industry of RMG sectors in Bangladesh. Bie Shengzue informed that the Acting President of DCCI Haider Ahmed Khan, FCA (second from right) and President of Chinese General Chamber of Commerce of Jilin Province Bie Shengzue (third from left) exchanging MoU between these two Chambers on October 16 at DCCI. DCCI Directors M Bashir Ullah Bhuyian (fourth from left), Osman Gani (right) and M Abu Horaira (third from right) are also seen in the picture. Chinese entrepreneurs are interested to invest in agro and agro processing Industries, jute, fertilizer sector etc. in Bangladesh. DCCI Directors M. Bashir Ullah Bhuiyan, Osman Gani and M Abu Horaira were present during the meeting. expressed his great happiness in getting a lot of useful knowledge and valued information within a short period, from the course which has broadened their mental horizon and made them more confident in discharging their responsibilities with new tools and techniques. The contents of the course were: Introduction to Marketing & Sales Promotion; Modern Concept of Marketing; Local Rules and Regulations; Market Segmentation, Targeting & Positioning; Competition Analysis & Competitive Advantage; Product Planning & Pricing Strategy; Distribution Management; Market Promotion, Integrated Marketing Communication; and Group Discussion, Tools and techniques of modern salesmanship; How to be a good salesman, Role play, Advertising & Sales Promotion; Ethics and codes of conduct in Marketing; Preparation & Implementation of Marketing Plan; Branding, Corporate Image; Corporate brand & Product Brand; Brand Marketing, Reputation management through corporate communication. DBI training course on ‘Market, Sales Promotion and Branding’ Kh. Shahidul Islam, Coordinating Director, DBI Standing Committee and Former Vice President of DCCI attended the certificate-giving ceremony of the training course on “Market, Sales Promotion and Branding” as the chief guest on October 10. He said, an organization must have market orientation in producing goods and services to ensure sustained operation and growth. The marketing/sales manager is responsible for the crucial functions of assessing and estimating demands for the products u services, selling and distribution of the same and ensuring customers satisfaction. He added that knowledge, ethics and experience are also very important in marketing and sales. On behalf of the participants, S. M. Wahiduzzaman, Director of Marketing, Nirvorota Group, Executive Director, DBI Md. Hossain Ali thanked the participants for their positive evaluation and suggestions which will be taken into consideration in future. He also stressed that their learning will be effective only if they apply their acquired knowledge in their day-to-day activities and enhance their skills. He also invited them to participate in other courses of DBI, as per their need. Additional Executive Director, DBI Ashish Kumar Paul also thanked the participants for coming to DBI to acquire modern knowledge and need-based skills. 5 BUILD Activities DCCI Review October 31th 2012 MoU signed between AIUB and BUILD for business confidence survey Business Initiative Leading Development (BUILD) and American International University of Bangladesh (AIUB) signed a MoU (Memorandum of Understanding) on “Cooperating in the Development of the Pilot Business Confidence Survey (BCS) in Bangladesh” on October 9 at AIUB board room at Banani. Asif Ibrahim, Chairman, BUILD and President, DCCI and Dr. Carmen Z. Lamagna, Vice Chancellor, AIUB signed the MoU on behalf of BUILD and AIUB. Mrs. Ferdaus Ara Begum, CEO BUILD, Ismet Morshed, of Business Research and Advocacy Director, BUILD; Prof. Dr. Charles C. Villanueva, Dean, Faculty Administration; Prof. Dr. Md. Faruque Hossiain from Stakeholder AIUB and Engagement IFC Analyst Shihab Ansari Azhar, BICF Consultant Ms. Zaitun Qudri and BICF Consultant Zahidul Naim Zakaria from IFC-BICF were also present in the signing ceremony. The BCS will offer insight into business confidence of investors and private sector and understanding of the trends of the economy from their perspectives. The survey will contain information on economic conditions, availability environment, of tax finance, legal environment, customs control, business regulations, public administration and investment climate from business. The initial phase of the survey will cover Dhaka metropolitan area and will 6 be ready for dissemination of the result by January 2013. DCCI President Asif Ibrahim (third from left) and Vice Chancellor of American International University of Bangladesh (AIUB) Dr. Carmen Z Lamagna (fourth from right) exchanging MoU signed between DCCI and AIUB on October 9 at the AIUB campus. CEO of BUILD and Acting Secretary of DCCI Ferdaus Ara Begum (left) is also seen in the picture. BUILD for licensing reforms for removing barriers relevant information to the private sector. There is no denying that regulation for addressing public interest objectives such as protecting safety and security of life, environment etc. has to be ensured, but it does not mean that government regulations should create hassles for the businesses and thus increase the cost of doing business. In order to comply with all the regulations, local start-up businesses must obtain at least 16-20 licenses, irrespective of the sector they operate in. For foreign investors the initial number of licenses and permits range from 20-26. This huge regulatory burden means that businesses, in order to be legally compliant, need to spend a large amount of time and money to get these licenses before they set up their businesses. Business licensing is often termed as one of the most important components to regulate business and create a favourable and sustainable business environment. While it is essential to have a regulatory mechanism in place, it is not expected that regulatory aspects will create unnecessary barriers for smooth operation of business. Business licensing reforms are, therefore, required to bring changes targeted to improve the quality of regulation as well as regulatory process and consequently improve quality of services of the concerned organizations. BUILD, since early this year, has been conducting extensive research in the field of business licensing, to advocate policy reforms and help sensitize While making a comprehensive list of the business licenses and their corresponding document requirements, BUILD research team came across some common issues that impede efficiency in most of the government bodies and agencies involved in issuing business licenses and permits. Despite the huge regulatory burden, information on these licenses is rarely available, and so entrepreneurs have no guide on how to be legally compliant. National Economy DCCI Review October 31th 2012 D-8 calls for technology transfer, sharing of know-how for mutual benefits The seventh working group meeting of the Developing 8 (D-8) nations in the Bangladesh capital called for increased trade and cooperation by ensuring transfer of technology and sharing of knowledge in different fields for mutual benefits of the bloc members. It also suggested capacity-building in the member countries to increase trade and economic cooperation so the D-8 countries could dominate the global economy. The 7th meeting of the D-8 Working Group on 'Industrial Cooperation- 2012' was held at the Ruposhi Bangla Hotel in Dhaka city. The speakers at the meeting said that the D-8 member states must strengthen their technological and industrial cooperation to consolidate their economies and ensure accelerated economic growth and development. They also agreed to cooperate in the sectors like textiles and garments, energy and environmental conservation, food industry, petrochemicals and fertiliser, cement, steel, automotive industry, electronics, ICT, plants and machinery, technology transfer, standardisation and conformity assessment and development of small and medium enterprises (SMEs). They said that the D-8 countries could benefit from technology transfer, collaboration in industrialisation and cooperation in research and development that would create employment opportunities for poverty reduction and raising standard of living. They identified agriculture and food security, transportation, energy and SMEs as priority areas of cooperation among the D-8 countries. Speaking on the occasion, Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) President Asif Ibrahim said that since the inception, the D-8 countries had been striving hard to enhance trade and economic cooperation for improving their position in the global economy. He said that the trade among the member states accounted for only 6 percent of the world trade which needed to be increased at least to 12 percent by 2012. "This is necessary to expand the markets and create new opportunities in trade, industry and investment, increase participation in decision-making at the international level and improve living standard of their people," he said. in the pharmaceutical sector among the D-8 countries. He also suggested cooperation among the D-8 countries in some important areas to promote trade and investment that include establishment of a joint chamber of commerce for exchanging information about business, trade and investment among them. He said the proposed chamber of commerce should sponsor visits of successful businessmen of each country with a view to sharing innovation and achievements which could be transferred from one country to the other. Khan also favoured establishment of a news agency to exchange news, information and knowledge among the D-8 countries. He suggested arrangement of special fairs in D-8 countries to show-case products of the member countries with a view to promoting trade and investment. He said that the total volume of trade among the D-8 countries doubled from US$ 35 billion in 2006 to US$70 billion to date. Besides, harmonisation of regulatory environment for banking and transfer of capital among the bloc members and development of human resources through exchange of teachers and students for learning the language of each of the member countries were also suggested. Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) President Maj Gen (Retd) Amjad Khan Chowdhury emphasised the need for cooperation We need to create an enabling environment for larger corporates to emerge regional multinational brands, thus grazing the greener pastures," he mentioned. But it is not enough compared to the existing potential. "We are confident that Bangladesh is going to continue to achieve accelerated growth due to our dynamic private sector, strong economic fundamentals, strategic location and resilient people," he said. "Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) are important locally but interregional cooperation can only be promoted by large enterprises which have the appetite and the abilities to do so. 7 National Economy President of the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI) AK Azad said that the apex trade body of the country was eager to pursue more collaboration with its counterparts in the D-8 countries to mutually explore the business opportunities. He suggested holding of an exclusive trade fair for D-8 countries in Bangladesh for developing trade relations among the member countries. He also recommended establishment of a D-8 Free Trade Area to take the advantage of numerous industrial and investment opportunities, harmonising standards and developing a uniform set of criteria for testing quality. "The total export from Bangladesh to D-8 countries in the fiscal year (FY) 2010-11 was US $1034.6 million which has decreased to $ 821.04 million in 2011-12. On the other hand, our imports from D-8 countries were $3542.93 million in 2010-11, which increased to $3708.40 million in 201112. This shows a negative trade gap for Bangladesh which is widening and we are concerned," he said. "We (D-8) have a combined market of around 1 billion people and there exists a high level of potential for greater cooperation and trade. We can easily achieve 10-15 per cent of the intra D-8 trade by 2018," he added. Secretary General of D-8 Secretariat Prof Widi Agoes Pratikto emphasised the need for taking a pragmatic approach for cooperation in the industrial sector among the bloc members with improvement of linkages and efficient networking among the entrepreneurs and industrialists of the bloc members. 8 State Minister of Industries Omor Faruk Chowdhury said that the D-8 countries were making a steady progress day by day through effective DCCI Review October 31th 2012 mutual cooperation among each other. Exchange of knowledge, technology and experience and people-to-people contact could play a pivotal role in the future progress in the bloc. Industries Minister Dilip Barua laid emphasis on strengthening mutual cooperation through exchange of expertise, knowledge and transfer of green and renewable technology which is coming out as the benefit of the third industrial revolution. He said that the D-8 countries were experiencing steady and faster growth recently that created enormous scopes for sustainable and balanced economic development. "I consider the global crisis as an opportunity for the D-8 members. We have many competitive advantages in the global market which need to be utilised. We have a large population which is all together 13 per cent of the global population. We (D-8) are representing almost 60 per cent of the total Muslim population of the world," he said. He opined that cooperation among the D-8 countries should not be confined to the industrial sector like automotive industry, cement, steel, electronics and IT, petrochemicals and fertiliser, energy and environmental conservation, food industries, textile and garments, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and machinery. "We have cooperation in the other areas like standardisation and conformity assessment, accreditation and technological cooperation. We should identify some more potential sectors for mutual cooperation like pharmaceutical, printing and publication, plastic, jute and jute goods," he added. Secretary in-Charge Mohammad Moinuddin Abdullah chaired the inaugural session of the meeting. Need for addressing problems impacting FDI flow Country's business leaders have urged the Developing Eight (D-8) member countries to come up with more foreign direct investment (FDI) in Bangladesh. The government, they noted, is setting up eight special economic zones (SEZs) with a lot of facilities where the businesses from the fellow member-countries can invest, either directly or through joint ventures. The technology of such member-countries and Bangladesh's cheap labour and potential manpower can, the business leaders of Bangladesh felt, create a fruitful way to provide a boost to businesses in the D-8 grouping. Since long, Bangladesh has been offering a package of attractive financial and fiscal incentives for FDIs. But the outcome is still not satisfactory. On the external trade front, Bangladesh's exports to D-8 member countries have been declining over the years. The D-8 member countries will have to ensure duty-free access of products in order to increase intra-group trade. Local businesses say that if such an access is given, it will be possible to increase intra-group trade up to 15-18 per cent from around 5.0 per cent at present. Meanwhile, the D-8 member states need to strengthen their technological and industrial cooperation to strengthen their national economies and ensure accelerated economic growth and development. Currently, D-8 is working on selective 12 sectors like automotive, cement, steel, electronics and information technology (IT), petrochemical and fertiliser, energy and environmental conservation, food industries, textile and garments, small & medium enterprise (SME) and machinery. Local economists and business leaders are not happy with the level of FDI flow to the country. They say if the country fails to address the National Economy infrastructure, power and energy constraints, foreign investments might be diverted to the neighbouring countries like Myanmar which has recently opened up its market to FDI. Leading global companies are now rushing to Myanmar after the country opened up its market; economic sanctions against Yangon have been withdrawn by a number of developed economies. Investors from the US, Japan, South Korea, China, and India are eyeing on Myanmar's telecom, natural resource-based industries, gas exploration, power plants and cement, fertiliser, readymade garments, tourism etc., sectors. However, it would be too early to comment on about which sectors would be affected and to what extent by Myanmar's opening-up move, but it is generally believed that FDI flow will be diverted to Myanmar in the absence of secured facilities including infrastructure, power and energy in Bangladesh. It will not take a long time to see the impact of the opening-up of the economy of Myanmar. As such, the problems of infrastructures and power and gas supply in Bangladesh need to be urgently addressed. Bangladesh may also take the advantage of Myanmar's location, being a next-door neighbour resourceful with agricultural land and mineral resources. But without improving the infrastructures including roads, railways, ports and other modes of transportation, FDI and other investments would not increase much in Bangladesh. Everything depends on how the government can support and develop infrastructurerelated projects and utility services. Like Bangladesh, Myanmar also secured its right in maritime boundary and would go for exploring natural resources in the Bay of Bengal. So the government will also have to look for prospective investors in this sector as well. DCCI Review October 31th 2012 The track record of Bangladesh as a destination of FDI is not encouraging. After many years, there was a significant rise in foreign investment by 24 per cent last year and it was, according to reports, propelled by such investments in the financial sector. A total of $238.21 million was invested in the country's power, gas and petroleum sectors in 2011, while telecommunication sector, particularly the fast-growing mobile phone companies, were able to attract $181 million. As of now, the government has not succeeded to assure convincingly the entrepreneurs of the availability of basic prerequisites for making investment decisions -- infrastructure facilities, gas and electricity, land and a favourable regulatory regime. As such, the country has not been able to attract foreign investment to any substantial extent due to lack of a strong commitment to facilitating such investments. Recently, a good number of investment proposals have been turned down by the authorities, particularly due to non-availability of land. According to some analysts, the problem about obtaining land -- and not political unrest, infrastructures and power crisis -- is the real constraint to FDI flow to Bangladesh. Investors now only look for land as they are capable to set up the rest of the infrastructure at their own initiatives. Many Chinese investors are reportedly willing to relocate their factories to Bangladesh due to soaring labour cost in their homeland. The findings by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) suggest that Chinese wages have been outpacing the rest of Asia for at least a decade. In this context, the government has to play an effective facilitating role to attract FDIs. Such a role should also encompass actions to help develop institutional arrangements to implement large infrastructure projects with the use of funds from the banking sector in appropriate ways. The amount of FDI flows to the neighbouring countries such as India and Pakistan have been at a much higher level than that of Bangladesh. To stay in the race, Bangladesh must attract, at least, $2.0 billion a year, in the from of overseas investment. It needs to go for drastic land management to ensure the availability of land to the investors. Furthermore, the negative factors should be fixed as soon as possible to uphold the image of Bangladesh in the global marketplace. This will help the country achieve its goal of rapid industrialisation. Businessmen happy over arrest of Hall-Mark bosses The business community has expressed satisfaction over the arrest of managing director (MD) of HallMark Group Tanvir Mahmud and its general manager (GM) Tushar Ahmed on their alleged involvement with the biggest ever financial scam of the country. In a statement signed by them which was released by the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI), they called upon the government to arrest bank officials involved with the loan scandal and bring them to the book through proper investigation. They said the businessmen in the country had been cooperating with the government in restoring discipline in the banking sector.They observed that exemplary action should be taken against dishonest businessmen who were trying to destroy discipline in the banking and financial sector of the country. 9 National Economy The signatories of the statement are President of FBCCI AK Azad, President of Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) Asif Ibrahim, President of Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) Maj Gen (Retd) Amjad Khan Chowdhury, President of Chittagong Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCCI) Morshed Murad Ibrahim, Acting President of Bangladesh Chamber of Industries (BCI) Shamsur Rahman, President of Chittagong Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CMCCI) Md Khalilur Rahman, President of Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) Md Shafiul Islam Mohiuddin, President of Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA) AKM Selim Osman and President of Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA) Jahangir Alamin. Bangladesh’s economic growth to slow to 5.8pc: IMF Bangladesh's economic growth may slow down to 5.8 percent in the current fiscal year, largely due to sluggish exports and investment, the International Monetary Fund forecast. A finance ministry official said an IMF mission made the forecast after a twoweek review of Bangladesh's latest macro-economic situation. The government set the GDP growth target for the current fiscal year at 7.2 percent. In June, Finance Minister AMA Muhith in his budget speech said the trend of satisfactory growth will continue in the commerce and agriculture sectors in 2013 as the global economy is on the rebound. He also said the productive sectors would get enough credit supply and the deficit in the power and energy sectors would come down. 10 According to the central bank statistics, like the previous year, slow DCCI Review October 31th 2012 growth in exports will continue this year. In July, export growth was 4.26 percent and in August it came down to 3.63 percent. Nasir Uddin Chowdhury, the first vice president of Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association, earlier said that exports might be slow in September. The exporters said an economic slowdown in the EU and the US is mainly responsible for a sluggish trend in exports. According to Bangladesh Bank data, the opening and settlement statistics of letters of credit for import of capital machinery and industrial raw materials also show a slow trend in investment. Last fiscal year also, LG opening for import of capital machinery fell by 21.22 percent, while LC opening for im-porting industrial raw materials went down by 3.84 percent. The negative trend continued in the current fiscal year as well. In the first month of the current fiscal year, LC opening for import of capital machinery fell by 30 percent, and for industrial raw materials the decline was 0.63 percent. However, a BB official said the central bank is now encouraging credit flow to productive sectors under its new monetary policy. The official said the GDP growth in the current fiscal year will be more than 6 percent. Though the IMF predicted that the economic growth will be lower than the government's target, the lender said inflation will remain within a single digit. The IMF mission said inflation will remain close to the government's target of 7.5 percent, according to the BB official. However, the lender is concerned about food inflation as the prices of food commodities are rising on the international market. The IMF team expressed satisfaction over the central bank's monetary policy, saying it is in the right direction to curb inflation. The IMF encouraged the central bank to continue it, the BB official said. Slow exports to pull down GDP growth to 6pc: ADB Bangladesh's economic growth may come down to 6 percent in the current fiscal year due to sluggish exports and a decline in domestic demand, the Asian Development Bank has said. The lender launched its Asian Development Outlook 2012 in Bangladesh and throughout Asia Pacific. GDP (gross domestic product) rose by 6.3 percent and the government's target is 7.2 percent for the current fiscal year. However, the ADB said inflation will fall by 2 percentage points and stand at 8.5 percent on average in the current fiscal year compared to that in the last fiscal year. “Export growth is expected to remain low in the first half of fiscal 2013," said ADB Country Director Teresa Kho at a press conference at the organisation's office in Dhaka. Growth in domestic demand is also likely to stay limited because of the central bank's continued credit tightening, Kho said. Mohammad Zahid Hossain, principal economist of the ADB in Bangladesh, made a presentation on the latest situation of Bangladesh's economy at the press conference. Hossain said a financial crisis in the European Union is affecting Bangladesh's exports. Echoing the view of the ADB country director, he said credit tightening by the central bank will slow domestic demand. “The expected rise in remittances will not be strong enough to fully offset it.” Hossain said sectoral GDP growth in the services and industries sectors will be slow in the current fiscal year but growth in the agriculture sector will almost double compared to that in the National Economy last fiscal year. About inflation, he said upward adjustments in the fuel and electricity prices at home will lift nonfood inflation. But inflationary pressures will be contained as central bank's credit tightening measures take hold. He also said the international prices of commodities, including that of fuel, are expected to be broadly stable. Hossain said food prices are expected to fall in the first half with comfortable domestic supply, but will go up in the second half as drought in a number of major agricultural suppliers cuts global supplies. The ADB said remittance growth will be 12 percent in the whole year as more workers leave for the Middle East countries. The prevailing oil prices support the construction projects in those countries that engage the bulk of unskilled Bangladeshi workers. However, the ADB said several downside risks could upset the projections. It said fiscal management could come under pressure if the revenue target is not realised and planned foreign financing does not materialise. If political pressures quash the expected increases in fuel and electricity prices, it may also strain fiscal management, the ADB said. The lender also said the monetary discipline could be undermined if the government increases bank borrowing to finance subsidy spending. Finally unfavourable weather or political unrest could affect economic activities, it said. The ADB country director said it is important to enhance macroeconomic stability in the short-term and strengthen internal and external balances. Kho also said ensuring adequate credit for the private sector is a priority. Policy actions at the same time should focus on keeping inflationary pressures in check, she added. DCCI Review October 31th 2012 Political uncertainty, poor infrastructure major threats to economic growth Country's leading economists have said looming political uncertainty and large-scale scam in banking sector will pose serious threat to achieving many macro-economic targets of the sixth five year plan. They said the controversies over Padma Bridge Project would create multifarious negative impacts on the country's economy in future.They outlined that neither the GDP growth target nor the target for curbing inflation would be met though some of the economic performances under the sixth five year plan were commendable. Those issues were discussed at a meeting organised by the Policy Research Institute (PRI) on the occasion of publishing its quarterly brief held at the PRI Conference Room. Prof. Wahiduddin Mahmud chaired the discussion where former advisor Dr. ABM Mirza Azizul Islam, NBR Chairman Dr. Nasiruddin Ahmed, BIDS Director General Mustafa K. Mujeri, General Economic Division Member Prof. Shamsul Alam, former Privatization Commission Chairman Inam Ahmed Chowdhury, social activist Badiul Alam and adviser to the governor, Bangladesh Bank, Hassan Zaman, spoke on the occasion. Dr. Zaidi Sattar, Chairman, PRI made opening remarks where Dr. Sadiq Ahmed, Vice Chairman, PRI and Dr. Ahsan H. Mansur, Executive Director, PRI presented four keynote papers on different issues. Prof. Wahiduddin Mahmud said if the political situation turns volatile the economy will be badly impacted by it and no benefit will emerge by calculating economic indicators. "Inadequate Infrastructure and political instability are two major constraints for the country's investment growth," Wahiduddin Mahmud said summing up the discussion during the policy briefing. Mirza Azizul Islam said a large amount of state-owned commercial banks' money has got stuck with different institutions like Hall-Mark Group, Destiny Group which will jeopardise the smooth economic activities and investment. He said the flow of external assistance from development partners will not improve as the country is heading towards confrontational politics. "I do not expect that the gross domestic product (GDP) growth target or the targeted inflation of the sixth five year plan will be achieved," Mirza Aziz said. 11 National Economy BIDS Director General Mustafa K. Mujeri said the quality of macroeconomic management has come under question due to the government's failure in managing banking system. "The dispute with donors over Padma Bridge Project would seriously impact the overall economic activities in future," Mujeri said adding that there are enough evidence of serious mismanagement in the country's banking sector. Mujeri said the poverty reduction and social development goals under the five year plan will not be met with the present rate of progress. Former Privatisation Commission Chairman Inam Ahmed Chowdhury suggested not to speak recklessly on the sensitive issues like Padma Bridge Project by government's high officials. He said the government should have selected a few people to act as official spokespersons to avoid such experience. Chowdhury suggested implementation of the public private partnership projects (PPP) through privatisation commission and allowing the turnkey basis procurement to hasten development activities. Sadiq Ahmed Implementation Macroeconomic outcomes of the plan showed performance. in his paper on of the Sixth Plan Framework said the first two years of the mixed record of The current account and fiscal balances are broadly on target, but there is substantial shortfall in the targets for the investment rate, growth of exports and the inflation rate. 12 "Slower GDP growth and higher inflation relative to the plan targets, unless tackled forcefully, will likely to have adverse implications for securing the employment and poverty reduction targets of the plan," Ahmed noted. DCCI Review October 31th 2012 In his other paper tiled 'Implementation of the Sixth Plan Strategy for Foreign Resource Mobilisation' Ahmed said Bangladesh is lagging behind in capital accumulation since investment as a percentage of GDP remains stagnant over the past few years. "Increasing investment to the desired level appears to be a formidable challenge and requires major effort to improve the investment climate, especially to attract more FDI," he said. He suggested five ways to increase investment which included jump start of stalled PPP strategy, facilitate infrastructure, better utilisation foreign aid in pipeline, and immediately resolve dispute with donors to improve macro-economic stability. Ahsan H. Mansur in his paper on "Tax Revenue Mobilisation -- sustaining the recent success," said the government has been most successful in tax revenue mobilisation in the recent years. The NBR has exceeded the tax revenue target for three consecutive years despite facing challenges in the form of declining dependence on import-based taxes and increased volatility in imports. "Buoyant performance in domestic based taxes -- VAT and direct taxes in particular -helped reduce dependence on import based taxes and better anchored the revenue performance to developments in domestic economic activity," he said. He suggested sharing information between VAT and income tax wings for the outcome of a greater potential in generating revenues. In his second paper titled "Revamping of the power sector: Where do we stand now," Ahsan H Mansur said at present electricity generation ranges between 5200 MW and 6000 MW, which is however well below the installed and actual generation capacities of 8819 MW. "Because of the much higher generation cost for the liquid fuelbased power plants, PDB's capacity to pay has been severely constrained despite a marked increase in subsidies from the budget causing shut down of power plants with 800 MW-1200 MW of capacity," he added. Mansur suggested ensuring rapid financial closure of the larger power projects which have been contracted out. He also suggested finalisation of the coal policy as early as possible to secure low cost energy for power. He also suggested market-based pricing of electricity and moving away from the monopoly role of public sector entities. A special industrial zone for plastic sector under way The government will relocate plastic factories of Old Dhaka to a new industrial zone as soon as possible, Industries Minister Dilip Barua said. The move comes after the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific of the United Nations has recently asked the government to set up a separate economic zone for the plastic industry. At present, around 1,200 unplanned plastic factories, most of which are unauthorised, operate in Dhaka. “A special industrial zone will be built to bring more discipline to the sector and to generate more exports,” Barua said. Bangladesh could emerge as a major player in the global plastic market if it manages to increase its turnover to $2 billion by 2015 and $4 billion by 2020, according to a UN case study. But for that, the country has to address three issues on a priority basis infrastructure, waste management and recycling, and skills development, the study says. Plastic National Economy products represent a sizeable subsector in the chemical industry, with a market size of around $1 billion, $714 million of which is thanks to the domestic market. The industries ministry has conferred the thrust sector status to the plastic industry, Barua said, while adding that the ministry is working to make the industry as environmentally friendly as possible. “The government is ready to give any kind of policy support to the sector as it has enormous potential.” Md Jasim Uddin, president of Bangladesh Plastic Goods Manufacturers and Exporters Association, said the policy and infrastructure support would be welcome as the sector looks to break into the global market. The growth rate for the last 20 years has averaged at more than 20 percent, said Jasim, also a first vicepresident of the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI). “The plastic sector has around 3,000 manufacturing units that offer jobs to more than 20 lakh people directly and indirectly,” said Shahedul Islam, a former president of the association. All basic raw materials are imported as the country does not have polymer industry yet, he said. Najmul Hossain, the country representative of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation, said the government should give policy support to develop this sector. “The export market of this sector is very large.” They spoke at a public-private dialogue on “Promoting Development of the Plastic Sector of Bangladesh”, organised by the FBCCI in partnership with Friedrich Naumann Foundation, at the capital's Pan Pacific Sonargaon Hotel. DCCI Review October 31th 2012 Five factors hinder PPP finds analyst Five specific factors are hurdles to the public private partnership model in implementation of projects in Bangladesh, an expert has said. The factors include absence of meaningful competition, poor specification by the government due to corruption or lack of capacity and the incompetent bidders who delay project implementation, Fouzul Kabir Khan, a former power secretary, said. Absence of penalty for reneging on contracts and corruption in bidding and contracting also result in project failures, he said. The implementation of the AES Meghnaghat 450 megawatt power project was a successful case under the PPP model, said Khan at the luncheon meeting of the France-Bangladesh Chamber of Commerce and Industry at Westin Hotel in Dhaka. In his keynote paper on PPP, Khan said Sonamasjid Land Port was unsuccessful, Jatrabari-Gulistan Flyover project was distressed and Patenga Container Terminal project was cancelled. All were under the PPP. The PPP model can be followed in some major sectors: power, infrastructure, township development, transports and roads, Khan said. Ryuichi Kaga, senior adviser for PPP in the South Asia Department of Asian Development Bank, outlined three funding modalities of his bank for PPP projects. The modalities are sovereign finance to host government or its governmental agencies, corporate finance to project sponsors and project finance to project company. “Controlling project risks is key to successful funding,” Kaga said while he was speaking on 'funding solutions for PPP projects' at the meeting. But three kinds of risks should also be mitigated for a successful project financing, which are political, commercial and natural disaster risks, he added. As funding solutions, he mentioned some ways like loan, guarantee, equity investment, interest rate/currency swaps and transaction advisory services. “Much progress has been made with PPP in Bangladesh over a relatively short time. ADB is ready to provide holistic support,” Kaga said. Syed Afsor H Uddin, chief executive officer of PPP Office, said unsolicited fund can be accepted in the PPP projects, but through some complex processes. Michel Trinquier, French ambassador to Bangladesh, and Humayun Rashid, president of the chamber, also spoke. Cooperatives come under NBR lens The National Board of Revenue has brought the banking business of cooperative societies and cooperative banks under its scrutiny. The tax administrator also asked its field offices to examine tax records of the cooperatives that are doing banking business. The move comes after the NBR tightened its rules by withdrawing a tax-exemption benefit for the cooperatives that are engaged in banking business. The removal of the tax benefit means, a cooperative society, which has banking business, will have to pay 42.5 percent tax like banks from the current fiscal year. The NBR has already sent a list of cooperative societies and cooperative banks to its 649 field offices. "We have sent the list so that inspectors can check whether the cooperatives are engaged in banking business," said an NBR official, asking not to be named. "We will examine whether the cooperatives 13 National Economy have taxpayer's identification number and whether they submit returns regularly," said the official. He said the tax-exemption benefit was withdrawn to discourage the cooperatives from running banking business. But the tax benefit will remain effective for the cooperatives having no banking business. There have been allegations of illegal banking by some cooperatives. Early this year, the central bank found proof of illegal banking by Destiny Multipurpose Cooperative Society, a concern of Destiny. The NBR also detected tax evasion of more than Tk 100 crore by Destiny. The tax authority found that Destiny Multipurpose Cooperative Society violated tax-related laws. Earlier, the NBR collected the list of national and central cooperative societies and cooperative banks from the Department of Cooperatives. There are 21 national and 1,107 central cooperatives. The number of primary cooperatives is 1.63 lakh, according to the department's website. The number of cooperative banks is around 130, according to the Department of Cooperatives. Garment exports to US surge The falling prices of Bangladeshi wares and the rebounding American economy bid well for the country's readymade garment exports to the US. The global fall in cotton prices and the rising productivity of Bangladeshi workers thanks to technological upgrade in factories, account for the lower prices. Consequently, international buyers are increasing their orders from Bangladesh, industry insiders said. 14 Bangladesh's RMG exports to the US in July-August stood at $892.63 million, up from $869.80 million in the same period last year, data from Export Promotion Bureau showed. DCCI Review October 31th 2012 In July, the volume of Bangladeshi apparel reaching US shores jumped 21.5 percent from a year earlier, the fastest growth in a year and a half. A key factor behind this increase is lower average landed costs -- an 8.3 percent decline from a year earlier, the biggest drop in 27 months. “The higher export to the US is a positive sign for Bangladesh,” said Ahsan H Mansur, executive director of Policy Research Institute. Anwar-Ul-Alam Chowdhury Parvez, a former president of Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association, said garment exports to the US will continue to rise as China is losing its competitiveness due to labour shortage and higher production costs. China is shifting its productions from basic to high-end segment of the garment market, providing Bangladesh the opportunity to consolidate its already strong standing in the basic segment of the market. Hong Kong investors keen on investment in leather sector Hong Kong-based investors have proposed for a special industrial zone for composite leather to the government of Bangladesh. “We strongly believe we would be able to bring great benefits to the economy of Bangladesh by way of local employment opportunities and contributions to the gross national export,” said Andy Wong, president of Hong Kong New Territories Manufacturers Association. The association consists of more than 100 members, who, collectively, are responsible for supplying 90 percent of the global leather goods market via their concerns in China. He spoke at a programme on the prospects of foreign investment in Bangladesh's leather and leather goods manufacturing sector, organised by Oishi Glove and Trading Company at the capital's Pan Pacific Sonargaon Hotel. Wong, who was on a three-day tour of Bangladesh to scout for investment opportunities, visited the Ashulia industrial belt and the leather processing zones in Hemayetpur and Savar, to inspect the infrastructure. He urged the government to speed up the process of setting up the leather processing zone in Savar. Wong had suggestions, too, for the government, such as issuance of bonded warehouse licence with easy terms for foreign investors, uninterrupted power supply, the same facilities for investors outside the export processing zones and National Economy simplification of tax payment and registration processes for companies of foreign investors. “The cost of doing business in Bangladesh is very low. Plus, we provide good policy support to the foreign investors,” said Nabhash Chandra Mandal, additional secretary of the Board of Investment. “We have stable economic growth for the last three decades,” he said, while adding that the local leather sector could do with some foreign investment. Govt. forms taskforce to settle trade disputes under ACU The government has formed a highpowered task-force to settle disputes pertaining to external trade and expedite repatriation of export earnings from countries falling under the Asian Clearing Union (ACU). The Bank and Financial Institution Division under the Ministry of Finance (MoF) has formed an 11-member committee with Bangladesh Bank (BB) Deputy Governor Abdul Hoq as its convener. A senior finance official said the Terms of Reference (ToR) were already outlined for the committee, the first of its kind in the country. The central banks of nine Asian countries are the members of the ACU. The countries are Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Bhutan, Nepal, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Iran. "The entire spectrum of issues pertaining to trade disputes will be resolved soon," a finance official said. "We will initially identify the problems and disputes in our external trade to diagnose the deterrents. A welldesigned strategy would be finalised soon to this effect," he added. Officials from the BB, finance, commerce and foreign affairs ministries, the apex chamber, foreign exchange dealers association, National Board of DCCI Review October 31th 2012 Revenue, Bankers' Association of Bangladesh and Sonali Bank Ltd have been included in the task force. As per the Terms of Reference, the taskforce will find solutions to the entire trade-related disputes under the mechanism of ACU. It will identify deterrents to fair trade among the member countries. Furthermore, the Task Force will recommend effective measures to address the external trade disputes, undertake initiatives to resolve the problems and create a businessfriendly environment between exporters, importers and commercial banks. "We got problems in settling the issues of un-repatriated money due to the lack of Ad Confirmation, unreliability of foreign buyers and the lack of credibility of a number of local commercial banks to foreign nations," a top BB official said. "The new Task Force will certainly undertake meaningful strides to solve the problems of Ad Confirmation," he added. An Ad Confirmation is a document issued by a bank against a letter of credit. Generally, a third bank (other than the LC opening bank) issues confirmation to exporters in favour of importers which guarantees export earnings' repatriation to importers timely from the third bank, in case the importers fail to pay. In a confidential report, an intelligence agency last year said about US$2.0 billion were lying un-repatriated in foreign countries against export orders due mainly to the lack of Ad Confirmation. The intelligence report said as most of the exporters failed to get Ad Confirmation from their foreign buyers, repatriation took more time. President of Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association(BGMEA) Shafiul Islam (Mohiuddin) hailed the decision of forming the Task Force to solve disputes arising from export, import and banking transactions. "The move is good and long-awaited," Mohiuddin said. High-level team suggests use of three Indian ports A high-level government team has proposed transshipment of Bangladeshi containers from Singapore, Malaysia and Colombo to three Indian ports - Paradip of Odisha, Visakhapatnam of Andhra Pradesh and Haldia of Pashchimbanga to make coastal shipping viable. If those containers were transshipped to those ports and introduced coastal shipping, both cost and time of Bangladesh's export and import would be reduced drastically, the team headed by Commodore Jobair Ahmad, Director General of Shipping, made the recommendation after visiting the Indian ports. The team submitted a 13-point recommendation to the Shipping Secretary on the viability of coastal shipping and also said the government has to introduce a strict monitoring regime to protect possible 'oil smuggling', because oil price varies between the two countries. It recommended preparing a fit list from the existing pool of ships to launch bilateral coastal shipping with India. A government team that recently visited India to commence coastal shipping, made the recommendations last week. It recommended the government to separately prepare a list of qualified masters for the proposed shipping routes. "Owners of about 2000 small ships are willing to enlist their vessels in the proposed routes, but all are not fit for 15 National Economy plying coastal areas. We need to identify the technically fit ships from the pool," Jobair Ahmad explained in his recommendation paper. The team asked the government to collect necessary information about the standard requirements for a coastal ship and vessel master from International Maritime Organisation (IMO), International Standard Organization (ISO) and Marine Survey Office (MSO). It also recommended, if the coastal shipping lines are implemented, the government can make it mandatory to maintain IMO-required standards in building new ships both in private and government sectors in future. Bangladesh had earlier tabled the idea of using the coastal belt of the Bay of Bengal to transport goods between the two countries, on grounds of time and cost-efficiency. At present, local importers have to go through a two-week wait to take delivery of their imported wares, as they come via Sri Lanka, Singapore or Malaysia, according to Ahmad. "But using coastal routes to carry freight between the two countries will allow us to cut time to three days, and thereby, costs," said Ahmad. Earlier, local shippers proposed to the government to strike a deal to carry goods through the coast of the Bay of Bengal, to put to use the country's 2,000 cargo ships, many of which remain unutilised. Between September 25 and 29, Jobair Ahmad, along with five other senior officials, met with the chairman of Paradip Port Trust S Ananta Chandra Bose, to propose the use of inland vessels of 2000-tonne capacity from Paradip to Chittagong and Mongla ports. 16 "The port is near Bangladesh and it has a deep harbour. It will help transport gypsum, food items and other goods easily, compared to the DCCI Review October 31th 2012 ports in Haladia and Visakhapatnam," the DG, Shipping said. Bangladesh has bright prospects for earning a substantial amount of foreign exchange by operating its vessels to carry goods to and from neighbouring countries through the coast of the Bay of Bengal. Mansur said the food inflation that remained downward in recent months might reverse following rise in the prices of food items in the international market. He said the central bank has been considering further moves to tighten the monetary supply situation for reining in the nonfood inflation. Non-food inflation up by 1.0 pc in September Zaid Bakht, head of research of Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), said the rise in power prices is the main reason for the surging non-food inflation last September. Bakht said both food and non-food inflation might rise in the coming months as the election is nearing when the supply side is usually disrupted leading to rise in the prices of most consumer items. The rate of inflation at the national level, measured on the basis of CPI, remained almost the same at 4.96 per cent last month, with 2005-06 as the base year. However, the rate of food inflation at the national level decreased to 1.75 per cent on a pointto-point basis in September. Businesses involved in the country's manufacturing sector said the rise in non-food inflation is a piece of bad news for them as the prices of inputs may go up. Non-food inflation, being higher, could mean more bad news for the manufacturing sector, as it signifies an upward pressure on input prices, according to such circles. In January, Bangladesh and Myanmar agreed on a similar deal and adopted a draft Standard Operating Procedure to promote and facilitate trade and commerce between the two countries using the coastal belt. The country's non-food inflation edged up by nearly 1.0 per cent to 10.18% in September last, which analysts suggest, is mainly attributable to rise in prices of utilities. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the country's national statistical organisation, released the data of consumer price index (CPI) and the state of the situation about inflation for the month of September. The non-food inflation sharply increased in urban areas to 10.36 per cent in September against 8.10 per cent during the same period in 2011. Ahsan H Mansur, executive director of Policy Research Institute (PRI) of Bangladesh, told the FE: "The nonfood inflation surged in September mainly due to rise in house rents and in fares for different types of transportation services." According BBS, the non-food items like electricity, clothing, house rents and gold increased in September. He said the government might take up implementation of some unproductive projects as the election is knocking at the door which may push the rate of inflation further up in the months ahead. Bakht, however, stressed the need for ensuring disbursement of foreign aid from the pipeline which, he considered, may help reduce the rate of inflation. The ready-made garment (RMG) sector, the country's major industrial one, is already reeling under the effects of higher prices of power and slow buy-orders following the economic crisis in Europe. Anowar Ul Alam Chowdhury Parvez, managing director of Evince Group, said the rise in non-food inflation will lead to higher production cost as the garment workers will demand a salary-hike to meet the costs of accommodation and transportation. SAARC News DCCI Review October 31th 2012 Nepalese envoy seeks to boost economic cooperation with Pakistan Nepal greatly values its relations with Pakistan that are based on mutual respect, trust and shared perceptions on regional and international issues. These remarks were made by Nepalese Ambassador Bharat Raj Paudyal while talking to the Islamabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ICCI) President Zafar Bakhtawari during his visit to ICCI office for congratulating Bakhtawari on his appointment as ICCI president. The ambassador said that exchange of business delegations, single country exhibitions and a proactive involvement of business community of both the countries could enhance bilateral trade relations between Nepal and Pakistan. Paudyal was of the view that the exhibition would not only provide an opportunity to the exporters of Pakistan to showcase their products but it would also provide an opportunity to people of Nepal to strengthen their economic ties with Pakistan. He hoped that arranging exhibition could be the most feasible option for strengthening mutual economic, cultural and trade ties between Nepal and Pakistan. Speaking on the occasion, Bakhtawari said that he considers Nepal one of the best friends of Pakistan as people of Nepal have great love and affection for Pakistanis. He said that technology transfer, investment and economic cooperation were the areas in which both countries could collaborate for mutual benefits. The ICCI president said that the business communities of Pakistan and Nepal have to play a vital role for the promotion of bilateral trade and their greater mutual interaction is needed to achieve the ultimate objectives. He suggested that the two countries should focus on enhancing cultural exchange programmes and people-to-people contract along with focusing on strengthening trade ties. He further informed the ambassador that ICCI has planned to organise an International Industrial Expo in the federal capital to promote the export of country’s industrial products. He further said that businessmen from all over the world would also be invited to this expo that would give a boost to trade and exports. The ICCI president invited Nepalese counterparts to actively participate in that event, which would provide an opportunity to the business community of both the countries to come closer to each other. Pakistan to get EU trade concession in exports It is believed that Pakistan would get much longer concession period in 2014, when the new Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) scheme would come into effect where Pakistan would be well-placed to benefit from duty-free treatment under GSP Plus status. Pakistan will get trade concession up to an average of 20 percent export growth to the European markets. Pakistan’s trade with European countries under European Union (EU) Autonomous Trade Preference (ATP) scheme will start from November 1 and EU notification to this effect is expected by October 28, 2012. Around 27 EU-member states by a single EU ambassador in February 2012 completed approval process for Pakistan-specific EU trade package. These concessions would only be temporary and are intended for a two to three-year period as a bridging mechanism till 2014. Pakistan-specific EU trade package ATP would allow tariff-free export of 75 Pakistani products to EU markets over the next two to three years. However, the main items of the textile sector bedware, readymade garments and cotton fabrics, which hold 38 percent, 20 percent and 12 percent share, respectively in textile exports to the EU are not included in the concession package. After the concession from the EU, the sub-textile sectors of dishcloth, duster, knitted tracksuit-making units, weaving industry, towel, gloves and socks-making units will benefit, Pakistan Yarn Merchants Association senior member Ghulam Rabbani said. The selected product lines amount to almost 900 million euros in import value, accounting for about 27 percent of the EU imports from Pakistan. The total imports amount to 3.3 billion euros. The EU trade package is aimed at helping Pakistan deal with economic losses caused by the unprecedented floods in Pakistan in 2010. The EU applied for the WTO waiver in January 2011. Around 150 members supported the request for waiver of the 152 members of WTO. India opposed it and Bangladesh expressed certain reservations demanding compensation. Later these countries withdrew their 17 SAARC News reservations. He said the recession in Europe would not affect Pakistan’s exports to Europe after the duty-free access for 75 products. “The austerity measures being taken by the European nations would face economic hardships on the consumption and import of luxury and higher-end products,” he maintained. This will make Pakistan and a few other countries eligible to apply for GSP Plus, provided they fulfil the other criteria such as the commitment to effectively implement 27 international conventions relating to good governance, human rights and sustainable development etc. Pakistan would not be affected by the planned removal of tariff preferences as only EU imports from countries where per capita income has exceeded $4,000 for four years. This would possibly hurt countries like Brazil, Argentina, Russia and Saudi Arabia. The formal loss of GSP status for Mexico, South Africa, Turkey, Chile, Algeria, Colombia and Peru is not of any consequence as these countries already have good market access through free trade and other preferential deals. The update will reduce the number of countries that enjoy preferential access to EU markets from 176 to around 75. Pakistan’s threshold level of exports has been raised from less than 1.0 percent to less than 2.0 percent of the EU’s total GSP imports. Pakistan’s share in the total EU imports is 0.3 percent. 18 All Pakistan Textile Mills Association has hailed this decision and hoped Pakistan textile industry would fully benefit from the opportunity of better market access to the EU. DCCI Review October 31th 2012 Pakistan’s FDI plunges by 67 per cent Foreign investment is becoming rare commodity for the country while the outflow has been increasing rapidly as was witnessed during the first quarter of this fiscal year. The foreign direct investment (FDI) fell by 67 per cent to $87 million during the July-September of 2012-13 compared to $263 million the same period last year. The rise in portfolio investment supported the overall Foreign Private Investment (FPI) which fell by 15pc to $183.5 million during the quarter. However, the FDI outflow from almost all sectors except the oil and gas exploration registered significant increase. The portfolio investment, which is considered as temporary investment, rose to $96 million in July-Sept period compared to an outflow of $47 million during the same period last year. Most of the sectors registered an outflow of foreign investment including the extremely popular telecommunications sector. During the first quarter the sector note an inflow of $78.3m while the outflow was $179.2m making a net outflow of $100.9 million. bail the country out from the current mess of failures. The only attraction for foreign investors is the oil and gas exploration which succeeded to receive an investment of $114 million during the first quarter of this fiscal year. However, it was less than the $180 million the sector received in the same period last year. The country is facing energy crisis which offers great opportunity for the investors but the sector could not receive any significant investment. In fact, the sector lost almost all investment as the net investment in the sector was just $0.7 million compared to $14 million it received in the same period last year. The country is under enormous pressure of falling foreign exchange reserves and speedy payments of debts and interests on debts to the IMF and other donors. The repayments have slashed the reserves and shaken the exchange rate as the local currency has continuously been losing value against the US dollar. India inflation rises, dampens rate cut hopes The overall inflow of FDI during the quarter was $286 million while the outflow was $199m giving a dismal picture of the economy having no attraction for the global investors. Indian inflation accelerated to its highest level this year, hitting 7.81 per cent in September, data showed on Monday, outpacing market forecasts and reducing the chances of an interest rate cut. An exporter of textile products said poor economic performance of the economy during the last five years gave a sense that the economic policymakers were lacking vision to The Wholesale Price Index – India’s most widely watched inflation measure – rose 7.81 per cent year on Analysts said the trust deficit among the foreign investors is increasing as the government makes tall claims but fails to deliver. The country’s hawkish central bank will meet at the end of the month to consider its interest rate policy as it faces calls from businesses to cut rates to spur economic growth that has slowed dramatically. SAARC News year last month – just exceeding market forecasts of 7.7 per cent. The reading was up from 7.55 per cent the previous month and 6.87 per cent in July, which was close to a three-year low. Developing countries such as China, South Korea and Brazil have lowered borrowing costs in a bid to protect their economies from the effects of the eurozone debt crunch. But India’s central bank still is targeting inflation, which remains stubbornly above its “comfort” level of five per cent. September’s inflation rise comes after the government recently hiked statecontrolled diesel prices by some 14 percent in an effort to lower massive fuel subsidies that have contributed a bloated fiscal deficit. The price hike was hailed by some as a sign of readiness by the government to tackle tough economic reforms and the widening hole in the public accounts. But critics said it would spur inflation at a time when growth has slowed sharply to around 5.5 per cent from near double-digits in recent years. Most analysts predict the central bank will keep lending rates on hold until inflation shows a decisive downward move. The bank last cut rates in April after raising borrowing costs 13 times. DCCI Review October 31th 2012 Nepal government to ease vehicle import soon The government will ease vehicle imports, correcting some technical mistakes in the emission standard after it adopted the Nepal Vehicle Emission Standard III (NVES-III) on August 13. The standard is popularly known as Euro III among Nepalis. The Ministry of Environment, Science and Technology –– concerned ministry –– has made a correction to the standard. “There were some technical mistakes and we are rectifying them,” said under secretary of the ministry of environment, science and technology Rajendra Kharel in a programme. “It will ease the import of vehicles.” About 2,000 vehicles — from buses, trucks to small cars — have been stranded at customs points for the last two months due to the new emission standard. The problem arose because of technical mistakes in its publication in Nepal Gazette. “All concerned people have agreed to the standard, so there will not be any problem in implementing it after the mistakes are rectified,” said Kharel. According to him, due to the absence of arithmetic signs like plus, minus, and equal in the standard, it confused customs authority in allowing the import of vehicles with Indian emission standards — Bharat Stage III and IV. Nepal Automobile Dealers’ Association said that it will welcome the decision. “We are not against Nepal Vehicle Emission Standard III, but it should not create a hurdle in the import of vehicles,” said vice-president of the association Shekhar Golchha. Nepal Vehicle Emission Standard III is a 21st century standard that permits low emission in vehicles. For example, dust particles emitted by vehicles should not be more than 0.5 per cent. Similarly, the standard seeks low carbon and sulphur emission. Consumer activists had urged the government to be strict about the vehicle emission standard. “The government must enforce Nepal Vehicle Emission Standard III, but at the same time it must not discourage Nepali traders and entrepreneurs,” said the president of National Consumer Forum Premlal Maharjan. People prefer mass transportation and not small cars because they cannot afford private vehicles, he added. The central bank will “approach easing with caution, keeping a keen eye on inflation and further policy progress out of Delhi”, said Leif Eskesen, HSBC chief India economist. The higher inflation comes as the Congress-led government of Premier Manmohan Singh is hoping the economy will pick up as a result of a string of market-opening steps in the past weeks that ended years of policy paralysis. 19 Asia Pacific DCCI Review October 31th 2012 IOR-ARC to consider ways to tap economic potentials of Indian Ocean Rim The 12th meeting of the Council of Ministers of Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation (IOR-ARC), held in Gurgaon of India decided to consider ways to utilize vast economic potential, including that offered by blue economy, for increased intra- and inter-regional trade for the benefit of all member states. In a communiqué issued at the end of the meeting, the IOR-ARC reiterated its commitment to free trade as it saw trade facilitation measures as an important dimension in the context of regional trade and investment expansion. In this regard, the Council of Ministers welcomed the regional workshops on Customs harmonization and Trade Policy held this year as potentially contributing to ease of business, and direct the Working Group on Trade and Investment to take these initiatives forward. The meeting noted that the connectivity provided by the Indian Ocean has played an important part in shared history and will continue to shape collective destiny. Enhanced connectivity can have a catalytic effect on economic integration by drastically reducing the costs of doing business, and the IOR-ARC decided to find ways of enhancing regional connectivity to realize the full potential of economic cooperation. 20 The IOR-ARC meeting recognised development of port and harbour infrastructure in the region as assuming critical importance. It directed the Working Group on Trade and Investment to explore the potential of cooperation in this sector, including investment in and upgradation of shipping infrastructure and logistic chains in the region. This would act as an economic multiplier, facilitating growth in individual rim economies, the meeting said. China tipped to be 2nd biggest luxury market by 2017 China is set to become the world’s second biggest market for luxury goods after the United States in five years, overtaking France, Britain, Italy and Japan, an industry report said Tuesday. Developed countries still dominate the personal luxury market but economic woes are reducing demand while rising middle classes in emerging economies take up the slack, consumer research group Euromonitor said. Luxury-goods sales could top $302 billion worldwide this year, up 4.0 percent from 2011, as buyers from developing nations snap up designer handbags, clothes, jewellery, watches, fine wine, champagne and spirits, it said. “Benefiting from a fast-growing middle class and a fast-developing luxury distribution network, sales of luxury goods in China have consistently outperformed the global market,” Euromonitor said. Japan is currently the world’s second biggest market for luxury goods but its share has been shrinking as the country struggles with economic problems. Demand for luxury goods has been lackluster this year in developed Western markets and Japan due to rising prices and mounting insecurity over jobs and pensions, Euromonitor said. However, emerging markets led by the so-called BRIC grouping – Brazil, Russia, India and China – are making up for the shortfall. The BRIC countries will account for 11 percent of total luxury sales with a combined retail value of over $33 billion this year, up from only 4.0 percent in 2007, it said. This is forecast to rise to $59 billion, or 16 percent of global sales, by 2017. Asia Pacific The world’s four biggest luxury goods markets – the United States, Japan, Italy and France – still accounted for almost half the value in sales this year, the report said. Designer apparel are expected to remain the best-selling items, accounting for 42 percent of total luxury goods revenue by 2017, but jewellery and timepieces are fast gaining popularity, it said. While China’s importance to luxury goods makers has soared in recent years, signs have emerged of demand growth easing. Last month saw shares in luxury clothing and accessories group Burberry tumble after the British firm issued a surprise profit warning which analysts blamed on China’s economic slowdown. Expat wealth heads to Southeast Asia Southeast Asia has come to the fore as a leading destination for expat earning potential according to the latest findings from HSBC Expat’s Expat Explorer survey. The largest global survey of expats shows that Singapore this year tops the Expat Explorer Economics league table, which ranks countries based on a number of factors such as earning levels, disposable income and ability to accumulate luxuries. Four additional countries in the region also make the top ten, including Thailand (3rd), Hong Kong (4th), China (7th) and Vietnam (10th). In the midst of wider global turmoil, expats in Southeast Asia continue to benefit from increased earnings with Singapore holding the largest proportion of wealthy expats of any country. More than half (54%) of Singaporebased expats who took part in the Expat Explorer survey earn more than DCCI Review October 31th 2012 $200,000 per year, compared to a global survey average of only 7%. Furthermore, four in five (80%) expats in Singapore saw an increase in their disposable income since relocating. This trend for increased earnings is mirrored across other Asian countries, with expats in Hong Kong (79%), Malaysia (72%) and China (69%) benefitting from an increase in disposable income since moving to the country. The annual Expat Explorer survey, now in its 5th year, is the largest global survey of expats. HSBC Expat’s Expat Explorer surveyed 5,339 expats from nearly 100 countries worldwide; making it the largest ever sample to date. The findings reflect the views of survey respondents living and working abroad. Commenting on the findings, Dean Blackburn, Head of HSBC Expat says: “The Expat Explorer survey provides a wealth of information and is a valuable resource for the expat community, especially for those looking at trends in the migration of expat earning potential from country to country. While Southeast Asia has historically been a popular choice for those looking for increased quality of life, we’re also seeing a steady increase in the levels of expat wealth heading to the region. These two factors combined indicate that the region is fast becoming an allround top expat destination.” Despite strong outlook, many Middle Eastern expats only plan a short term stay Expats in the Middle East show higher levels of satisfaction in the state of their economy (Oman, 90% satisfied; Qatar, 89%; Saudi Arabia, 83%; UAE, 77% and Kuwait 68%) than expats globally (59%) and many have reported being better off financially. Roughly two-thirds of expats in Qatar (67%), Bahrain (66%), and Oman (65%) have reported higher disposable income since relocating to their current country, compared with only 52% of expats globally. Despite the positive outlook, many expats are actively looking to leave the region. Roughly one third of expats in Saudi Arabia (34%), Qatar (30%) and Oman (29%) are actively looking to leave their current country for either another posting or to return to their home country, compared to just over one in ten (13%) globally. However, the desire to leave doesn’t seem to indicate that expats are unhappy in their current posting. Instead, the survey shows that many expats who head to the region retain a much stronger affiliation with their home country than expats in general (Qatar, 90% identify strongly with their home country; Saudi Arabia, 90%; UAE, 88%; Bahrain, 87% and Oman, 77%). This suggests that many expats always intended to move to the region for a set period of time, potentially to take advantage of the higher income available, before moving elsewhere or back to their home country. European expats are willing to weather the euro-zone storm. Expats across Europe have reported feeling the impact of the euro-zone storm but those in Spain are feeling the effects most acutely. Spain-based expats are twice as likely (39%) to feel that their country is off on the wrong track than the global average (19%) and more than half (58%) report that the country they are residing in is getting worse for expats. Although not quite as pronounced as Spain, the sentiment that the country is economically getting worse as a place to live and work for expats is echoed across other European nations including the UK (44%), Netherlands (43%) and France (33%). Satisfaction with the euro-zone economies is similarly bleak. While 21 Asia Pacific those in Spain are most likely to report dissatisfaction with the current state of the economy (92%), expats in the UK (68%) and France (48%) are also more likely to be unhappy with the current state of the local economy than satisfied. Despite the pessimism towards the current economic environment, expats in Europe are proving resilient to wider euro-zone woes. While more than one in ten (13%) expats globally are actively looking to leave their current country, no expats (0%) in Spain are actively looking to leave and threequarters (74%) are intending to stay. UK- and Francebased expats exhibit similar figures with 71% and 69% respectively intending to stay put (compared to a global average of 62%). Asian markets lose ground on Europe fears Asian markets fell on Monday as concerns over the eurozone debt crisis overshadowed surprisingly good US jobs data which showed unemployment close to a four-year low. An underwhelming return for Shanghai after a week-long holiday added to the glum outlook for the day, while the euro erased gains made in New York. Sydney eased 0.28 percent, or 12.5 points, to 4,481.9 while Seoul closed off 0.67 percent, or 13.28 points, at 1,981.89. Hong Kong was 0.89 percent lower, shedding 187.82 points to 20,824.56, and Shanghai closed down 0.56 percent, or 11.75 points, at 2,074.42 Tokyo was closed for a public holiday. 22 Wall Street gave an anaemic lead despite Labor Department figures showing the official jobless rate fell to 7.8 percent in September, the lowest level since President Barack Obama took office in January 2009. The data from its establishment survey was less buoyant, showing a modest 114,000 net new jobs produced. But DCCI Review October 31th 2012 previous months were revised higher, underpinning the better showing in the September data. US investors initially sent shares soaring after the numbers were released before those gains were wiped out. The Dow closed up 0.26 percent, the S&P 500 ended flat and the Nasdaq eased 0.42 percent. And while the closely-watched jobs data provided some hope for the world’s number one economy, the ongoing crisis in Europe continued to take its toll on sentiment. There was a cautious tone as the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) was to launch with an inaugural board meeting, and European Union finance ministers were due to meet. Lastminute disagreements over key ESM commitments have surfaced, with Germany, the Netherlands and Finland arguing that the fund should not be used to help banks already bailed out before it became operational. This represents a potential blow for the likes of Ireland, which went bust after trying to keep its lenders afloat, and for Spain, which has also recapitalised some of its banks and secured 100 billion euros from its eurozone partners to do more. There are concerns Greece will not get its next tranche of much needed bailout cash as it struggles to resolve differences with its EU, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund creditors over its austerity budget. And despite its parlous finances Spain continues to refuse to ask for a rescue that would also allow the ECB to enter the debt market to lower Madrid’s borrowing costs. “We saw the jobs data come out that was in line with expectations in terms of the payrolls, and US unemployment ticked down… Focus has moved back towards Europe,” Jason Hughes, head of premium client management for IG Markets Singapore, told AFP. “It looks like we’re still going to have a wait-and-see approach from Spain. There isn’t much pressure in the secondary bond markets at the moment to cause them to need to really act quickly,” Hughes added. The euro was trading at $1.2973 compared with $1.3031 late Friday in New York, while it was at 101.58 yen, from 102.48 yen. The single currency lost the advances it had made on the wake of the US jobs data. The dollar fetched 78.31 yen from 78.64 yen. Shanghai’s negative return also weighed on Hong Kong dealers, with expectations dashed that a slight uptick in manufacturing activity would spur buying on the mainland. On oil markets New York’s main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in November, shed $1.38 to $88.50 a barrel in the late afternoon. Brent North Sea crude for November fell $1.12 to $110.90. Gold was at $1,768.52 at 0810 GMT compared with $1,789.90 on Monday. China, India consumer spending to triple by 2020: study Consumer spending in emerging market powerhouses China and India is expected to triple by 2020 to a combined $10 trillion a year, potentially helping to boost economic growth and corporate profits in the developed world, researchers said. The study by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) is based on a survey of 24,000 consumers as well as interviews with business leaders. The business strategy consultancy predicts consumers in China and India will spend a combined total of $64 trillion on goods and services in the decade leading up to 2020. Annual spending on consumer goods will be three times the level spent in 2010, according to "The $10 Trillion Prize: Captivating the Newly Affluent in China and India". Asia Pacific "We are at a turning point in history where relative wealth will shift from the West to China and India, but absolute wealth, including in the West, should increase," said Michael J. Silverstein, a senior partner at BCG and the book's co-author. Some of the enthusiasm for India, China and other emerging markets has dimmed in recent months due to slowing economic growth, weak progress with structural reforms and political risks. Emerging equities have also not performed as well in recent years as their developed peers. But the book's authors played down these worries, saying India and China were experiencing the inevitable volatility in emerging economies. The middle class in the two countries is expected to reach 1 billion by 2020, BCG said, noting that in India, the proportion of middle-class people is expected to grow to 45 percent in 2020 from 28 percent in 2010. BCG said Western companies need to win over the growing middle class of the two countries via long-term strategies adapted to the future spending habits of these new consumers. It named Kraft, Yum! Brands, PepsiCo, Gucci, LVMH, BMW, and Pernod Ricard as companies that have deployed successful strategies in these countries. China's currency foray augurs geopolitical strains "It's our currency and your problem," US Treasury Secretary John Connally famously said of the dollar in 1971. More than 40 years later, China is doing something about it. Fed up with what it sees as Washington's malign neglect of the dollar, China is busily promoting the cross-border use of its own currency, the yuan, also known as the renminbi, in trade and investment. The aim is both narrowly commercial to reduce transaction costs for DCCI Review October 31th 2012 Chinese exporters and importers and sweepingly strategic. Displacing the dollar, Beijing says, will reduce volatility in oil and commodity prices and belatedly erode the 'exorbitant privilege' the United States enjoys as the issuer of the reserve currency at the heart of a post-war international financial architecture it now sees as hopelessly outmoded. Zha Xiaogang, a researcher at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, said Beijing wants to see a better-balanced international monetary system consisting of at least the dollar, euro and yuan and perhaps other currencies such as the yen and the Indian rupee. Competition among major currency issuers and a wider menu of options when investing, trading or seeking a store of value would produce better results for the world economy, Zha argued. "The shortcomings of the current international monetary system pose a big threat to China's economy," he said. "With more alternatives, the margin for the US would be greatly narrowed, which will certainly weaken the power basis of the US" While Beijing sees opportunities in using the yuan beyond its borders, others see risks - not least to China itself: relaxing capital controls so foreigners can reinvest their accumulated yuan in China's securities markets is one of the preconditions of reserve currency status. Yet allowing market-driven money flows to drive exchange and interest rates would weaken the ruling Communist Party's tight grip on two of the main economic levers, potentially sowing the very instability it abhors. John Williamson, one of the foremost academics on exchange rates, went back to basics and questioned the assumption that reserve currency status confers vast benefits. Whereas China, Brazil and others have lambasted the United States for deliberately cheapening the dollar through loose monetary policies, Williamson argued that US exchangerate flexibility is actually limited because the dollar is the anchor of the system. It is other countries that adjust their rates; the dollar then adjusts as a "residual". Zha's comments were in a paper prepared for a seminar in Bahrain this week on the geopolitics of currencies organized by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London think tank. Of course, the United States gets to finance its payments deficits more cheaply because of demand for dollars from reserve managers, but this might not be enough to outweigh the loss of freedom to manage its exchange rate. But with no obvious alternative to the dollar for now, the timing and extent of any shifts in the existing order are inherently unpredictable, much like exchange rates themselves. He identified only two ways that US power in the world economy is enhanced by the dollar's dominant role, which he does not expect to be challenged in the next quarter century. The great financial crisis, alongside the ascent of China and other emerging markets and the existential threat to the euro, is prompting policymakers in the West, too, to question the established monetary order. Change is in the air. "It is not surprising that many economists have therefore concluded that a reserve currency role is not advisable," said Williamson, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. 23 Middle East DCCI Review October 31th 2012 Iran currency crisis not yet enough to threaten regime The protests that have rocked Tehran over Iran’s plunging currency expose an undercurrent of tension and the effects of sanctions, analysts say, but do not yet signal a real threat to the regime. Despite hopeful talk from Israel of a “Persian Spring”, experts said the regime remains firmly in power and the majority of Iranians continue to support its nuclear ambitions despite sanctions. “People are not happy with the economic sanctions but will that push them to overthrow the regime? I don’t think so,” said Thierry Coville of the Paris-based Institute of International and Strategic Relations. The protests erupted after the rial hit an all-time low against the dollar and shed around 40 per cent of its value, as Western sanctions worsen Iran’s underlying economic problems. Money changers said virtually no transactions were taking place in the market, making any valuation unreliable, but the rate was estimated to be around 36,000 to the dollar. The fall has made it more difficult for ordinary Iranians to afford basic goods and seen import businesses lose millions of dollars. Earlier hundreds of police and security personnel flooded central Tehran, closing foreign currency exchanges and rounding up unlicensed money-changers. Scuffles broke out with stone-throwing men, trash dumpsters were set alight and 16 people were arrested. 24 The rare display of public anger prompted Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman to suggest: “The Arab Spring will be followed by a Persian Spring, instability is spreading in Iran, and not just in Tehran.” Western officials said the protest was a sign that pressure is having an effect. “The sanctions are biting,” said a senior European official, speaking on condition of anonymity. The goal, the official said, is “to bring the (Iranian) economy to its knees” and European officials are working on a new set of sanctions that may be approved later this month. But experts were cautious. “After the protests were violently crushed following the fixed elections in 2009, Iranians do not want to go back to the streets. They’re in a holding position,” said Francois Nicoullaud, a former French ambassador to Iran. Mideast hubs are ‘driving force of change in aviation’ “Middle East hubs and airlines are leading the way to confront and overcome the serious challenges to global aviation growth and stability and bring about positive change in the industry.” That was the message given by James Hogan, Etihad Airways’ President and Chief Executive Officer, in his keynote address to delegates at the International Air Transport Association (IATA) World Passenger Symposium taking place in Abu Dhabi. Hogan spoke in depth about the positive impact the Middle East is having on the global economy and how the focus is shifting from the traditional, more established markets to the emerging economic powerhouses in the Middle East, Asia, South America and Africa. “In an uncertain world,” Hogan said, “The Middle East is one of the “strong pockets” for growth in aviation.” In addition to capitalizing on its strategic geographical location, Hogan explained that the Middle East region works because of a new approach – highlighting Abu Dhabi as a prime example of a new aviation hub. “There’s an unprecedented focus on service, we are able to work from a new cost control template and there’s no ‘legacy’ airline baggage,” he said. Hogan said: “The connectivity provided by Etihad Airways is key to Abu Dhabi’s regional competitiveness and we relish our integral role in inbound tourism and the promotion of Middle East Abu Dhabi as a leading global destination. “Abu Dhabi has a growing, diversifying economy – backed by a Government with the vision, the will and ability to invest in the future. “The doubledigit growth we are seeing is largely supported by the government’s vision for the future which is backed by considerable investment in tourism infrastructure and Abu Dhabi’s willingness to embrace best practice and knowledge in other key areas including manufacturing, education and health. Kuwait Energy makes new oil discovery in Gulf of Suez Kuwait Energy, one of the fastest growing independent oil and gas exploration and production companies in the Middle East announced a new oil discovery of Ahmad-2 well, located in the Area A license in the Gulf of Suez, Egypt, adjacent to the Shukheir North West field. Kuwait Energy is the operator of the Area A license under a service agreement with Egypt’s General Petroleum Company (GPC). Kuwait Energy holds a 70% working interest in the license, and the remaining 30% interest is held by Petrogas E&P, of Oman. The Ahmad-2 well encountered oil in the Rudeis formation for the first time in the Shukheir North West field and Ahmad area, and initial tests showed a production flow rate of 1,300 barrels of oil per day (bopd). This is the fifth exploration success in the Area A concession, and the 19th discovery in Egypt for Kuwait Energy since 2008. Kuwait Energy’s Chief Executive Officer, Sara Akbar, said, “We are delighted to announce yet another exploration success at the Area A concession, which follows the DCCI Review October 31th 2012 discovery of the West Ahmad-1X well earlier this year. Area A is now our largest producing oil asset in Egypt and we look forward to more successes.” Kuwait Energy started operating in Egypt in 2008 and its operations there contribute the largest share to the Company’s current total working interest production. In Egypt, the Company operates three oil blocks, Area A, Burg El Arab development lease and the Abu Sennan concession, and has interests in two other non-Companyoperated blocks, namely the Mesaha concession and the East Ras Qattara development lease. Palestinians seek work in Israel as crisis deepens For Palestinians, the Israeli military coordination office on the outskirts of Jerusalem is a symbol of Israel’s decades-long control over their lives. Now it has also become an unlikely source of hope for employment. In response to an economic crisis gripping the West Bank, Israel has increased the number of permits for Palestinians to work in Israel. This has drawn large crowds of desperate men to the gray edifice each morning in chaotic scenes of long lines, frustrated faces and heated arguments as they try to secure a coveted permit. At a time of double-digit unemployment in the West Bank, Palestinian workers, particularly people working in manual jobs like furniture moving, gardening and maintenance work, have few other options. “It’s a dream to get a permit and work in Israel,” said Kayed Ashkar, 45, who is unemployed and a frequent visitor to the Israeli Civil Administration office. “I used to work there. I used to earn enough money for my family,” said the former waiter, whose wife’s modest salary in a local wedding hall supports their five children. Israeli authorities have granted an additional 10,000 permits this year to work in Israel, raising the total number to 40,000. It’s still well below the peak level of 200,000 in the 1990s, but the most since a violent Palestinian uprising erupted in late 2000. The uprising was characterized by suicide bombings and other attacks carried out by West Bank Palestinians, prompting Israel to revoke most permits. An additional 25,000 Palestinians work in Israeli settlements in the West Bank, underscoring their dependence on the Israeli economy. The Palestinians as a rule harshly oppose the existence of the settlements on land they claim for their state. UN figures say unemployment in the West Bank is 17 percent, a figure that may well underrepresent the severity of the crisis, given the large numbers of underemployed in the West Bank. The tough times have fueled an angry mood among Palestinians. Last month, in a rare move, thousands demonstrated against Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, blaming the US-educated economist for their deepening impoverishment. The Western-backed Palestinian Authority, the local autonomy government, has paid only partial salaries to its 114,000 civil servants in the West Bank, about 15 percent of the local work force, over the past few months because of a shortfall in its $4 billion budget. The public sector is by far the biggest employer in the West Bank, forming the backbone of the Palestinian economy, so the government’s inability to pay has rippled throughout the economy. October’s salaries haven’t arrived yet, and the government has further angered Palestinians by announcing plans to 25 Middle East fix the minimum wage at $345 a month, below the local poverty line. Also, taxes and prices for basic goods have risen. The crisis has several causes. The Palestinian Authority is heavily dependent on foreign donors, and key backers, including the US and Arab countries, haven’t delivered promised aid. Adding to the challenger, Israel continues to control 60 percent of the West Bank, constraining Palestinian growth and development. Israeli security policies also limit Palestinians’ ability to import and export. Israel has taken steps, such as removing military checkpoints, to ease movement in and out of the territory, but the World Bank and others say it must do more. On the Palestinian side, attempts by Fayyad to increase taxes have been met with fierce resistance. In a report to donors last month, the World Bank appeals to them to urgently prop up the Palestinian government. “But even with this financial support, sustainable economic growth cannot be achieved without a removal of the barriers preventing private sector development,” it warned. It’s a far cry from Fayyad’s grand vision, unveiled in 2009, that aimed to end Palestinian dependency on Israel and lay the foundation for independence. Fayyad, a former International Monetary Fund official, promised new roads, schools, an airport and other development projects. The money would come from donors and increasing tax revenues. The goal was to generate employment in the West Bank, the heartland of a future Palestinian state, ending the need for laborers to find work in Israel. 26 To stop Palestinians from inadvertently supporting Israel’s Jewish settlement enterprise, his government banned the sale of items produced there. He also tried to halt Palestinian laborers working in Jewish DCCI Review October 31th 2012 settlements, especially construction jobs building new homes. Palestinians say the settlements are preventing them from building their state by cutting up the West Bank. Despite Fayyad’s best intentions, investors shied away, deterred by a deadlocked peace process, a global economic slowdown and regionwide turmoil. Alternative efforts by Palestinian leaders to unilaterally carve out independence through international recognition are making little progress. Yet Israel has a strong interest in keeping Fayyad’s government afloat. The Palestinian Authority’s collapse would wreak chaos on Israel’s doorstep and endanger key security cooperation that has helped maintain years of relative calm. In a separate report to donors last month, Israeli officials boasted of a series of measures it was taking to bolster the Palestinian economy, including increasing work permits. Israelis and Palestinians remain bound together, though their stated goals are separate states. “There’s no way for us to disconnect the Palestinian economy from Israel’s, before it ends its occupation,” said Palestinian Labor Minister Ahmed Majdalani. On a recent day, some 200 Palestinians gathered outside the military building to apply for permits, clutching applications in plastic envelopes, waiting for an unseen soldier to open a gate to usher them in. Eligible Palestinians -those who do not have a record of activity against Israel – peaceful or violent – receive a magnetic card allowing them to enter Israel. They find jobs through friends or contacts on the Israeli side. Emad Misbah is one of the lucky ones. He has a special permit that allows him to stay overnight in Israel during the week, avoiding the lengthy daily commute that most face while waiting to cross checkpoints. The 49-year-old gravedigger works 10 hours a day, and sleeps in a trailer in the cemetery. Global oil market balanced: Kuwait Kuwait Minister of Oil Hani Hussein said yesterday that the global oil market is balanced with no disparity between supply or demand. Prior to his departure, the minister made the remarks in a press statement following the conclusion of the 31st meeting for the GCC oil and energy committee meeting held earlier at the General Secretariat of the GCC in Riyadh. The minister added that current prices reflect the current state of the market, noting that market’s mechanism do control the way to determine prices. Hussein added the meeting here were important in bolstering coordination and consultation among GCC countries, in particular on oil production prices and formulating ides ahead of the upcoming GCC summit next December. In relation to hosting the Petroleum Media Forum in Kuwait, Hussain said that GCC oil ministers agreed on the importance of the forum which would reflect positively on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and highlights its role on the regional and global arenas, especially in the fields of energy and mining. Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi said yesterday that the oil-rich Gulf kingdom will work to satisfy global energy markets and to moderate prices. “We will provide the markets with what they need,” Naimi told reporters on the sidelines of a ministerial meeting in Riyadh. “We will work to moderate prices.” He said that oil prices remain high and that he wished to see them at a lower level. “They are still high and we would like to see Brent at 100 dollars,” he said, adding that the “market determines the prices.” International DCCI Review October 31th 2012 British annual inflation slows to near 3-year low Annual inflation in recession-hit Britain slowed to 2.2 percent in September, the lowest level for almost three years, official data showed on Tuesday, but analysts warned that the decline would soon reverse. The 12-month rate compared with inflation of 2.5 percent in August, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. The Bank of England’s target rate stands at 2.0 percent. “The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) annual inflation stands at 2.2 percent in September 2012, down from 2.5 percent in August. This is the slowest rate of inflation since November 2009, when it was 1.9 percent,” the ONS said in a statement. September’s level matched analysts’ consensus forecast, according to a survey by Dow Jones Newswires. The CPI advanced 0.4 percent in September on a month-on-month basis. “The (annual) rate of inflation has now more than halved since its peak last September, bringing welcome relief to the budgets of families and businesses,” a Treasury spokesperson said. The ONS added the inflation rate dropped last month as energy price rises in September 2011 were not repeated. However over the past week, British energy companies have announced new large increases to domestic gas and electricity prices. “UK inflation fell to within a whisker of its 2.0 percent target in September, although the fall is likely to be the last for a while,” said Vicky Redwood, chief UK economist at Capital Economics research group. “Inflation might now edge up a bit over the next couple of months. The recently announced utility price increases will add 0.1 percent to inflation for each of the next three months. “And food prices could start to rise as past commodity price increases feed through, while the rise in (university) tuition fees will boost inflation in October,” she added. In a sign of stubborn inflationary pressures, the ONS also revealed on Tuesday that the price of goods leaving factories in Britain increased last month on the back of higher fuel costs. Producers’ output prices rose 2.5 percent in September from the same month a year earlier, official data showed. That compared with a 2.3-percent gain in August and beat market expectations for a September increase of 2.2 percent. Economist Chitraj Channa, at the Centre for Economics and Business Research consultancy, agreed that inflation was likely to climb in the coming months. “On balance, whilst annual consumer price inflation fell in September, the presence of upward pressures in the pipeline indicate that this is likely to be the trough before the climb.” EU to police banks European leaders agreed to police thousands of eurozone banks beginning next year as they sought to boost growth in their austeritybattered economies and create muchneeded jobs. By the close of a twoday summit, France and Germany had patched up differences over how to beat the debt crisis, although the new watchdog for 6,000 banks will come too late to re-float Spanish lenders via a dedicated rescue fund. Leaders also hailed a 120-billion-euro ($155-billion) package of measures to try and kickstart a climb out of recession as social and political unrest hits Greece and Spain. Ideas included using proceeds from a proposed tax on financial transactions to tackle youth unemployment currently running in these two countries at more than 50 percent. Difficult decisions remain to be taken in two more summits before Christmas, as Britain’s David Cameron threatened to veto the European Union’s budget for the rest of the decade and snub the Nobel Peace Prize-giving ceremony in Oslo in December. Conflicts in Syria and Mali, as well as Iran’s disputed nuclear programme also figured among their chief concerns. But with market pressures considerably eased since the summer, eurozone and EU leaders found common ground with the fresh commitment to bird’s eye bank supervision led by the European Central Bank. This is supposed to anchor a redesigned economic and monetary union that leaders are beginning to believe-after three years in full crisis mode-can make the euro more attractive to EU states still outside the currency bloc. After an 11-hour session into the wee hours to reach the bank supervision deal, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said it was not about “trying to bargain for extra days or months,” but rather ensuring a “solid legal framework” could be found by yearend. “We need democratic legitimacy,” she said, plus further clarity on dealing with eurozone banks in non-euro 27 International territories, especially the global financial centre of London, and viceversa. “There will not be a retroactive direct recapitalisation,” she said. Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti said a Merkel plan to create a “supercommissioner” with powers to intervene directly in states’ tax-andspending plans flopped. French President Francois Hollande said the summit outcome was “a good deal” but he resisted a German push to change the EU treaty next year after a December summit that is meant to nail down “concrete” moves to tighten centralisation of economic policy. Hollande said he didn’t see the “utility of adding new mechanisms.” He did, however, suggest that the fruits of a financial transactions tax (FTT) that a group of EU states want to start next year be “dedicated to youth training” to get a lost generation of European youths into employment. The French leader also urged a “quick decision” on the resumption of Greece’s long-paused bailout. Recent EU-wide praise for Greece has suggested a more sympathetic hearing for a two-year extension Athens seeks on its commitments, though leaders urged the coalition government to stick to the goals of its debt bailout. “The country’s reserves are only sufficient until November 16,” Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras said, while adding that “the climate has changed” among partners in Brussels. 28 Hollande, who will shortly follow Merkel in visiting Greece himself, also warned against “adding austerity to austerity” by imposing harsh conditions on Spain if it were to request a full sovereign European bailout. In a clear sign that social unrest is far from over, Spain’s main unions called a general strike for November 14. DCCI Review October 31th 2012 Striking Greeks protest austerity Greek police clashed with antiausterity protesters hurling stones and petrol bombs on the day of a general strike that brought much of the near-bankrupt country to a standstill. In the second major walkout in three weeks almost 40,000 protesters marched in Athens in a bid to show EU leaders meeting in Brussels that new wage and pension cuts will only worsen their plight after five years of recession. Tensions mounted when a small group of protesters began throwing pieces of marble, bottles and petrol bombs at police barricading part of the square in front of parliament, prompting riot police to fire several rounds of teargas to disperse them. A 65-year old protester died of a heart attack, hospital sources told Reuters. Another three people were injured. Police detained about 50 protesters suspected of attacking them. Most business and public sector activity ground to a halt at the start of the 24hour strike called by the country’s two biggest labour unions, ADEDY and GSEE. “Enough is enough. They’ve dug our graves, shoved us in and we are waiting for the priest to read the last words,” said Konstantinos Balomenos, a 58-yearold worker at a water utility whose wage has been halved to 900 euros and who has two unemployed sons. It was the third time since late September that tens of thousands of Greeks have taken to the streets holding banners and chanting slogans to show their anger at austerity policies imposed by EU and IMF lenders in exchange for aid. Some were carrying Greek, Spanish and Portuguese flags and shouted: “EU, IMF out”. “Agreeing to catastrophic measures means driving society to despair and the consequences as well as the protests will then be indefinite,” said Yannis Panagopoulos, head of the GSEE private sector union, one of two major unions that represent about 2 million people, or half of Greece’s workforce. Greece is stuck in its worst downturn since World War Two and must make at least 11.5 billion euros of cuts to satisfy the “troika” of the European Commission, European Central Bank and IMF, and secure the next tranche of a 130-billion-euro bailout. European Union leaders will try to bridge their differences over plans for a banking union at a two-day summit. International No substantial decisions are expected, reviving concerns about complacency in tackling the debt crisis which exploded three years ago in Greece. The austerity policies being pursued in Europe’s indebted Mediterranean countries at the behest of Germany and other rich euro zone members will drive the euro apart, protesters warned. “This can’t go on. We sure need measures but not as tough as the ones (German Chancellor Angela) Merkel is asking for,” said Dimitris Mavronassos, a 40year-old shipyard worker who has not been paid for six months. The strike emptied streets and offices in Athens. Ships stayed in port, Athens public transport was disrupted and hospitals were working with emergency staff, while public offices, ministries, bakeries and other shops were shut. Newspaper kiosk owners, lawyers, taxi drivers and air traffic controllers were among those protesting over the cuts, which include further drastic reductions in welfare and health spending. Opinion polls show rising anger with the terms of the bailout keeping the economy afloat, and Greeks becoming increasingly pessimistic about their country’s future. “The new, painful package should not be passed,” the ADEDY public sector union said in a statement. “The new demands will only finish off what’s left of our labour, pension and social rights.” But with Greece due to run out of money next month, Athens has little choice but to push through the austerity package being discussed with lenders. Greece and inspectors from the troika say they have agreed on most issues. Athens is expected to secure aid needed to avoid bankruptcy given EU determination to avoid fresh market turmoil threatening bigger economies such as Spain and Italy. DCCI Review October 31th 2012 But the protests are expected to increase pressure on Greece’s fragile three-party coalition cobbled together in June to implement the harsh austerity terms under its international 130-billion euro bailout agreed in March. Emboldened by the strikes, the main opposition Syriza party turned up the heat on the government. “Their time is running out,” said the party’s 38-year old leader Alexis Tsipras who took part in the march. “People are taking matters into their own hands.” World faces ‘dangerous’ economic cocktail The world faces a “dangerous” cocktail of low growth and high unemployment, OECD chief Angel Gurria said yesterday, after the global body warned of gloomier prospects for major economies. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), in its latest global overview, said this month leading indicators for the 34-nation body point to “weakening growth in coming quarters” for most major economies. “You have a problem of high unemployment especially among the youth-growing inequalities and low growth-and in some cases contracting growth,” Gurria said at an OECD conference in New Delhi on measuring global wellbeing. “Like the James Bond cocktail-when you shake together and do not stir-you have a very, very dangerous combination,” he told a news conference. Some 50 million people are unemployed in OECD countries — 15 million more than in 2008 at the onset of the global financial crisis, he said. “Five years on, it is still ongoing,” added Gurria, secretary-general of the Paris-based organisation that leading groups the world’s industrialised democracies. Unemployment in Greece is at a record 25.1 percent as its economy contracts, while in Spain the jobless rate is 24.6 percent as the government implements austerity measures to fend off a sovereign bailout. The gap between rich and poor is now at its widest in 30 years with governments facing a loss of confidence in their ability to deal with boosting growth, tackling debt and making the financial sector more stable, Gurria said. But he also said there also were signs of progress in tackling Europe’s debt crisis. He praised the European Central Bank’s (ECB) plan to launch a bond purchase scheme for debtwracked countries to safeguard the euro that has spurred hopes the financial crisis can be beaten. “It showed they (the ECB) had the muscle power, the bazookas” to help turn around market sentiment towards the euro and stabilise markets, the OECD chief said, and he added that a eurozone “banking union is now on the table”. Eurozone leaders earlier this year agreed to common supervision of lenders by January 2013 — a step toward joint bailouts of troubled banks and safeguarding depositors’ money. But there is still discord over the scope of the banking supervisor’s powers as well as the timeframe. “It (banking union) is going to happennot now-but maybe in January 2014,” Gurria said later. At the same time, to avert another blow to the global economy, he said it was vital the US Congress clinches a deal on the “fiscal cliff” facing the United Statesautomatic budget cuts and higher taxes due to take effect in January. Lack of agreement on averting or at least postponing the measures would “put the US economy into recession” and the global economy would also suffer, he warned. 29 International India ‘key player’ in G20: US Fed chief India is becoming an increasingly “key player” on the world stage, US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said after talks with the country’s central bank chief in Mumbai. Bernanke and US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, on a twoday visit to the country to forge closer ties, met Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Duvvuri Subbarao in the commercial capital. “We had a very constructive first meeting. We discussed policy challenges facing both the US and India and global challenges,” said Bernanke, the first serving Fed chief to visit the bank. “We also discussed monetary policy and banking regulations which are of mutual interest. India is becoming more and more a key player on the G20 stage,” Bernanke added. The visit is part of Washington’s attempts to pursue closer diplomatic links with India as an ally in Asia, as well as boosting commercial ties and access for its companies in the huge and largely untapped South Asian market. In the capital New Delhi, Geithner welcomed a blitz of economic reforms in India which open the door wider to foreign firms, describing them as “obviously very promising” after meeting Finance Minister P. Chidambaram. In April, Geithner had criticized India’s deteriorating investment outlook, but last month the government invited greater foreign investment in the retail, broadcasting and aviation sectors. Last week, the Indian government went further, proposing bigger overseas investment in the insurance and pension industries, but analysts say the country is still a long way from returning to a highgrowth path. 30 The economy slowed sharply to 5.5 percent in the most recent financial DCCI Review October 31th 2012 quarter. It had logged near doubledigits in the past decade. The central bank has held interest rates unchanged since April to keep a lid on high inflation, despite pressure from business leaders and the government to cut borrowing costs and give a further boost to the flagging economy. British finance minister outlines new welfare cuts British finance minister George Osborne said that the government will slash the welfare bill by £10 billion as it seeks to tame a massive deficit. Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne told his Conservative party that the world's seventh largest economy was "healing" but that Britain needed to stick to the course of tough austerity measures. He indicated that young unemployed people were likely to see reduced housing benefit and that there could be a limit to the number of children covered by benefits for jobless people. Osborne also ruled out a so-called "mansion tax" on big houses, a move that is likely to anger the Liberal Democrats, the junior partners in the coalition government who favour squeezing the rich. "The great bulk of savings must come from cutting government spending, not raising taxes," Osborne said to applause from delegates at the party conference in the central English city of Birmingham. "We have to find greater savings in the welfare bill, £10 billion ($16.1 billion, 12.4 billion euros) of welfare savings by the first full year of the next parliament" in 2016/17, he said. The reductions are in addition to the £18 billion in welfare cuts that are already planned by 2015 by Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron's coalition, which came to power in 2010. Osborne's announcement will please his centre-right party but risks cementing a reputation that the leftleaning Independent newspaper summed up in its headline: "Welcome to the Nasty Party conference." Angry protests erupted in late 2010 in Britain over plans to raise university tuition fees, cut benefits and slash costs in the public sector. The chancellor however defended the coalition's record in a combative speech, saying its austerity measures had inspired other governments as they battle big deficits. "We took the risk few political parties anywhere in the world are prepared to take before an election," he said. "The economy is healing. That healing is taking longer than we hoped, because the damage was greater than we feared. But let the message from this conference be clear: we will finish the job we have started," he said. Osborne said it was unfair that those on benefits should earn more than those who have jobs. "How can we justify that people in work have to weigh up the costs of having another child when those out of work don't?" Osborne added. "How can we justify giving flats to young people who have never worked, when working people twice their age are still living with their parents because they can't afford their first home?" The Liberal Democrats are opposed to further welfare cuts unless new wealth taxes are also introduced but Osborne rejected their proposals for a tax on high-value homes. "It's not a Mansion Tax, it's a Homes Tax and this party of home ownership will have no truck with it," he said. International The coalition promised to cut Britain's record deficit when it was elected in May 2010 but it has struggled with a double-dip recession. A mixture of economic worries and a series of government failures dubbed the "Omnishambles" by political commentators in Britain has seen the Conservatives' poll ratings plummet. A YouGov poll in the Sunday Times put the Conservatives on 31 percent, the Labour opposition on 45 percent, with the Liberal Democrats on eight percent and other parties on 15 percent combined. IMF cuts global growth forecasts The International Monetary Fund (IMF) yesterday presented a gloomier picture of the global economy than a few months ago, saying prospects have deteriorated further and risks increased. In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF slashed its growth forecast for large parts of the world economy and warned of a full-blown global slump if policymakers in Europe or the US mishandle serious threats. “Risks for recession in the advanced economies are alarmingly high. The intensity of the euro area crisis has not abated as assumed in previous projections,” it said. The warning came from the Washington-based lender when it unveiled its outlook in Tokyo ahead of the IMF-World Bank 2012 Annual Meetings. Overall, the lender's forecast for global growth was marked down to 3.3 percent this year and a still sluggish 3.6 percent in 2013. The IMF said advanced economies are projected to grow by 1.3 percent this year, compared with 1.6 percent last year and 3.0 percent in 2010, with public spending cutbacks and the stillweak financial system weighing on prospects. DCCI Review October 31th 2012 Growth in emerging market and developing economies was marked down compared with forecasts in July and April to 5.3 percent, against 6.2 percent last year. Leading emerging markets such as China, India, Russia, and Brazil will all see slower growth. Growth in the volume of world trade is projected to slump to 3.2 percent this year from 5.8 percent last year and 12.6 percent in 2010. In developing Asia, real GDP growth will average 6.7 percent in 2012 and is forecast to accelerate at 7.25 percent in the second half of 2012. The main driver will be China, where activity is expected to receive a boost from accelerated approval of public infrastructure projects. China, the world's second largest economy, will also see its economy to grow 7.8 percent this year and 8.2 percent next year. India will grow by 4.9 percent and 6 percent in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The IMF said the outlook for India is unusually uncertain: for 2012, with weak growth in the first half and a continued investment slowdown, real GDP growth is projected to be close to 5 percent, but improvements in external conditions and confidence -helped by a variety of reforms announced very recently -- are projected to raise the real GDP growth. IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard said the world economic recovery continues, but it has weakened further. "In advanced economies, growth is now too low to make a substantial dent in unemployment, and in major emerging markets, growth, which had been strong earlier, has also decreased." Blanchard said there are two forces -fiscal consolidation and weak financial systems -- which continue to pull growth down. "In most countries, fiscal consolidation is proceeding according to plan, and while consolidation is needed, there is no question that it is weighing on demand and, therefore, on output. And, the evidence increasingly suggests that in the current environment, the fiscal multipliers, the effect of fiscal consolidation on demand and output, are large." "The financial system is still not functioning efficiently. In many countries, probably more so in Europe than either in the US or in Japan, banks are still weak, and their position is made worse by low growth. As a result, many borrowers still face tight borrowing conditions, decreasing their demand as well." The forecast said that monetary policy in advanced economies was expected to remain supportive. Major central banks have recently launched new programs to buy bonds and keep interest rates low. But the global financial system remains fragile and efforts in advanced economies to rein in budgetary spending, while necessary, have slowed a recovery. The recovery is forecast to limp along in the major advanced economies, with growth remaining at a fairly healthy level in many emerging market and developing economies. In the United States, growth will average 2.2 percent this year. Real GDP is projected to expand by about 1.5 percent during the second half of 2012, rising to 2.75 percent later in 2013. In the euro area, real GDP is projected to decline by 0.4 percent in 2012 overall, about 0.75 percent (on an annualised basis) during the second half of 2012. 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Olympic Ind UCBL Grameenphone Keya Cosmetics Titas Gas Delta Spinners Meghna Petroleum National Bank Company Volume (Shares) 95,135,03 5,133,44 9,247,80 47,889,31 7,096,65 29,077,69 10,951,00 14,248,00 2,492,19 21,332,02 Dhaka Stock Exchange Grameen Phone Titas Gas Trans. ICB Square Pharma Islami Bank Ltd. BATBC Unique Hotel RL National Bank Prime Bank Ltd. BEXIMCO Ltd. Currency US$ EUR GBP AUD YEN CAD S’PORE$ Mkt. Cap (M. Tk.) 2,367.62 80,730 71,868 65,263 52,678 47,548 37,645 35,930 32,106 29,999 (as on 31 October, 2012) Top 10 Turnover Leaders Value (M Tk.) 284.391 167.199 160,790 131.004 124.436 114.343 93.837 67.143 62.010 53.994 Company 12.1 4.13 3.67 3.34 2.69 2.43 1.92 1.84 1.64 1.53 Exchange Rates Source : The Independent &The Financial Express Volume (Shares) UCBL United Air Grameenphone Keya Cosmetics Beacon Pharma BD Submarine Cable BSRM Steels Unique Hotel RL Loympic Ind. amra Technologies Top 10 Market Capitals % of Total (Mkt. Cap) Chittagong Stock Exchange Company Grameen Phone Titas Gas Trans. ICB Square Pharma Islami Bank Ltd. BATBC Unique Hotel RL National Bank Prime Bank Ltd. Pubali Bank 19,172,19 12,557,72 1,450,00 4,504,20 6,370,50 845,00 1,568,20 87,600 62,200 1,452,50 81.20 105.06 130.68 84.19 1.02 81.36 66.52 52.807 37.427 25.407 17.769 14.798 13.067 12.236 11.231 10.856 8.904 Chittagong Stock Exchange Mkt. Cap (M. Tk.) (as on 31 October, 2012) Buying Value (M Tk.) 2,366,00 80,683 76,781 65,092 52,415 47,910 37,745 36,115 31,470 30,235 % of Total (Mkt. Cap.) 12.47 4.25 4.05 3.43 2.76 2.53 1.99 1.90 1.66 1.59 Selling 81.22 105.09 130.72 84.24 1.02 81.43 66.56 37 Trade Information DCCI Review October 31th 2012 TRADE INFORMATION Prepared by DCCI Research Cell October - 2012 10 The following Trade Inquiries have been received in the Chamber from different sources abroad. Interested member-firms may like to contact them directly without any obligation on the part of DCCI. FOREIGN EXPORTERS HANCOLE CORPORATION Philippines. Website : www.hancolegroup.com Items: RMB Coconut Oil, Isopropyl Myristate (IPM), Medium Chain Triglyceride (MCT), Coco Diethanolamide (CDEA), Coco Diethanolamide (CAPB), Glyceryl Monostearate (GMS), Sodium Lauryl Sulfate (SLS), Cetyl Alcohol, Stearyl Alcohol, Toilet Soap Noodles, Refined Glycerine, Distilled coconut Fatty Acid, Triple Pressed Stearic Acid. Cámara de Comercio of Jaén Calle Hurtado 29 23001 – Jaén, Spain. Fax : 953 24 07 38 www.camarajaen.org Attn : Sr. D. Luis Carfos Garcla Sánchez, President Tel: 953 24 79 50 Attn: Sra. Da. Olga Martinez Head of the Foreign Trade department Tel: 953 24 79 53 Items: Chemical works, Tanneries, Distilleries, Cookies Factories and Textile Factories. KOREA INTERNATIONAL WELDING & CUTTING TECHNOLOGY SHOW 2012 South Asian Trade Fair FAIR AND EXHIBITION Date : 21-24 November, 2012 Venue : Changwon Exhibition Convention Center (CECO) Changwon City, South Korea Website : www.weldingshow.co.kr Organizer : Welding Korea 2012 Secretariat 641-200, Changwon Exhibition Convention Center 362 Wonidacro Uichang-gu, Changwon-si Gycongsuam-do, Korea. Tel: +82-55-212-1012, 104 Fax : +82-55-212-1200 E-mail: ylroh@cocx.co.kt THE 4TH INTERNATIONAL FOUNDRY CONGRESS & EXHIBITION (IFCE) Date : 05-06 December, 2012 Venue : Pearl Continental Hotel, Lahore, Pakistan Organizer : Pakistan Foundry Association 93-B Hali Road Gulberg-11, Lahore, Pakistan. Tel: +92 42 35023525, 35753619 Fax : +92 42 35755743, E-mail : info@pfa.org.pk, ifcc@pfa.org.pk Attn : Mr. Abdul Rashid, Secretary CHINA INTERNATIONAL FOOD EXHIBITION-2012 Date : 07-09 December, 2012 Venue : China International Exhibition Center Organizer : 38 Beijing Century Exhibition Co. Ltd. Add: Room 0904, Building 1, Dongqu International Apartment No. 1 Ciyunsi, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China. Tel: +86-10-51265397-886-820, Mob: 0171336.3366, 01911811833 Fax : +86-10-51600509 , E-mail: myy@gmail.com Attn: Ms. Eva Mu Date: 14-17 February, 2013 Country: Spain Contact: www.satradefair.com www.satradefair.es Mr. Mahmudul Islam Commercial Counselor Embassy of Bangladesh in Madrid Diego de leon, 69, 2 D-28006 Madrid Tel: (34)914019932, (34)913092735 Fax: bdembmol@gmail.com Tech Bangladesh 2012 Second International Exhibition on Agricultural Industry Date: 13-16 December, 2012 Venue: Rural Development Academy (RDA), Bogra, Bangladesh Organizer: RDA, LIMRA Contact: www.limratradefairs.com, www.rda.gov.bd 46th Session of Cairo International Fair 2013 Organizer: Egypt Expo & Convention Authority (EECA) Date: 19-29 March, 2013 Application Deadline: 15/02/2013 Contact: Tel: +20224032968, +20222607839 Fax: +2022607845, +2022607848 Email: info@cairofair.com, reservation@cairofair.com 23rd Vietnam International Trade Fair Date: 10-13 April, 2013 Venue: Vietnam Exhibition & Fair Centre, Giang Vo Road Hanoi, S.R. Vietnam Contact: Vinexad Exhibition & Event Email: thuytt@vinexad.com.vn, thuthuyvinexad@yahoo.fr Tel: +844.38255546 ext:442 mobile: +84.912..58.82 Pictorial DCCI Review October 31th 2012 Industries Minister Dilip Barua (right) speaking at the luncheon hosted by DCCI in honour of the visiting delegation from D-8 countries at Ruposhi Bangla Hotel on October 8. DCCI President Asif Ibrahim (second from left), D-8 Secretary General Dr. Widi Pratikto (third from right), Deputy Minister for Industry of Turkey Davut Kavranoglu, Minister for Industry, Mine and Trade of Iran Mahdi Ghazanfari are also seen. D-8 Secretary General Dr. Widi Pratikto seen addressing the Luncheon hosted by DCCI in honour of the visiting D-8 delegation on the occasion of D-8 ministerial conference on Industry at Hotel Ruposhi Bangla on October 10. Industries Minister Dilip Barua (fourth from right), Minister for Industry, Mine and Trade of Iran Mahdi Ghazanfari, Deputy Minister for Industry of Turkey Davut Kavranoglu, Advisor to the Prime Minsiter of Pakistan Raza Muhammad Basharat, DCCI President Asif Ibrahim (fourth from left), President of ICCBangladesh & former President, DCCI Mahbubur Rahman (left), D-8 Secretary General Dr. Widi Pratikto (second from right) are seen at the luncheon hosted by DCCI in honour of the visiting D8 delegation on the occasion of D-8 ministerial conference on Industry at Hotel Ruposhi Bangla on October 10. 39 Pictorial DCCI Review October 31th 2012 DCCI President Asif Ibrahim (right) addressing the 7th meeting of the working group on industrial cooperation of D-8 countries at Ruposhi Bangla Hotel on October 8. Industries Minister Dilip Barua (third from left), D-8 Secretary General Dr. Widi Pratikto (left) are also seen in the picture. A partial view of the guests attended the luncheon programme of DCCI on the occasion of D-8 ministerial conference on Industry at Hotel Ruposhi Bangla on October 10. 40 Coordinating Director, DBI Standing Committee & former Vice President, DCCI and Chief Guest Kh. Shahidul Islam (centre), Executive Director Md. Hossain Ali (second from right), Additional Executive Director Ashish Kumar Paul (right), Resource Person Aftab Mahmud Khurshid (second from left) and Assistant Secretary & Course Coordinator Tamanna Sultana (left) are seen along with the participants in the certificategiving ceremony of ‘Market, Sales Promotion and Branding’ training course, organized by the DCCI Business Institute (DBI) on October 10 at the Institute’s premises.