Planning for Housing in Metropolitan Areas - METREX

Transcription

PHIMA
Planning for Housing in Metropolitan Areas
METREX
125 West Regent Street
Glasgow G2 2SA
Phone/fax - +44 (0) 1292 317074
E-mail – secretariat@eurometrex.org
Web site www.eurometrex.org
PHIMA - Planning for Housing in Metropolitan Areas
Introduction
METREX is the Network of European Metropolitan Regions and Areas. It is a practitioner Network for
those with a common interest in metropolitan spatial planning and development issues and related
affairs. METREX has produced a Benchmark of effective spatial planning and development practice,
which sets out planning processes for the development of a Metropolitan Strategy and related policies,
programmes and projects. It can be downloaded from the METREX web site, www.eurometrex.org, in
EN|FR|DE|ES|IT.
As part of its services to Members, the METREX Secretariat is producing a series of strategic planning
tools to enable key issues to be explored, on a reasoned and justified basis, at the metropolitan level.
Current tools being developed included,
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ReMA – Planning for Regenerative Energy in Metropolitan Areas (operational)
PHIMA – Planning for Housing in Metropolitan Areas (under development)
PRIMA – Planning for Retailing in Metropolitan Areas (under development)
PHIMA – Planning for Housing in Metropolitan Areas
PHIMA is a METREX strategic planning tool to enable practitioners to explore longer-term metropolitan
housing demand and supply. Longer-term means the planning horizon of the metropolitan strategy,
which is usually in the region of 10-20 years. Metropolitan strategies will also usually be rolled forward
on a regular basis, perhaps every 2-5 years, to anticipate and respond to change.
It is clear that housing futures will be a key component of any longer term metropolitan strategy for
sustainable development. For example, future housing demand and its relationship to foreseeable
housing supply will give a first indication of the need for urban extension (greenfield development)
and/or urban renewal and regeneration (brownfield development) and the balance between these.
It will give a first indication of the scope for sustainable metropolitan development.
Purpose of this booklet
This booklet explains how the Planning for Housing in Metropolitan Areas (PHIMA) tool works. It will be
available on-line through the METREX web site at www.eurometrex.org by METREX Members or by nonmembers on a negotiated basis though the METREX Secretariat.
Acknowledgement
PRIMA has been devised by the METREX Secretariat with the support of colleagues in the GCVSDPA.
James Parke and Maxwell Cowan, METREX Projects, have been the primary source of knowledge and
expertise. Both worked at the metropolitan level for many years. If an Expert Group on Housing is
established then both will be available to support its work. They will also be available to advise
individual authorities on housing issues.
PHIMA is being made available for METREX Member use, on line, by Tim Page, Head of CITC
(Communications, Information Technology and Computing). Tim will similarly be available to support
the work of an Expert Group on Housing and individual authorities on the use of PHIMA on-line.
METREX/Glasgow/January/February 2012
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Principles
The Metropolitan Dimension - Functional Urban Areas/Regions
The concept of Functional Urban Areas/Regions (FUA/FUR) is now well recognised within Europe. The
Urban Audit has identified 127 Larger Urban Zones, with populations over 500k, which can be regarded
as the "metropolitan" FUA/FUR of Europe in that they share common strategic problems and
opportunities.
Many key issues can only be addressed effectively at the metropolitan level and it is for this reason that
METREX has advocated appropriate forms of governance to devise and implement appropriate strategic
responses. Such responses should be made on an informed basis.
Effective strategic planning for functional urban Areas/Regions
Urban areas/regions function by providing services to support key aspects of civilised life, including
provision for housing, economic activities (industry and commerce etc.), social support (health and
education etc.) and transportation (public and private). Such services are provided to varying "client
groups" over varying "catchment areas". For example, major shopping centres will serve a different
clientele, drawn from a wider area, than local centres.
In the strategic planning of metropolitan areas it is important to have an understanding of the area for
which market or social services are being provided. These will not always accord with long standing
administrative boundaries. In order to define the catchment areas for different market and social
services it will be necessary to disaggregate data held at local authority levels within a metropolitan
area. This will frequently be a major undertaking.
Effective strategic planning on an informed basis
METREX has produced a practice Benchmark to support informed and effective strategic planning
decision-making at the metropolitan level. The Network has now taken the process a step further by
producing a suite of strategic planning tools to enable three key strategic planning functions to be
fulfilled.
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Exploration - of alternative responses to key issues. In effect, "what if" scenarios.
Adoption - of preferred responses to key issues. In effect, the "reasoned justification" for a
preferred strategy.
Regular review - of a longer term planning strategy.
Metropolitan key strategic issues
An over arching key issue for most metropolitan areas is the balance to be struck between urban
consolidation ("brownfield development") and urban extension ("greenfield development"). When urban
extension is justified then the selection of the most sustainable locations for development will be an
issue.
Provision of land for housing will be key consideration when balancing urban consolidation and/or
extension on the most sustainable basis.
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Balancing housing demand and need with housing supply
The balancing of housing demand/need and supply will need to be carried out over "housing market
areas" that reflect the areas over which the local and incoming population will search for housing
opportunities. The definition of such areas will be a first requirement.
Housing market areas will function on a "tiered" basis, that is, the local housing market area for local
demand and the metropolitan housing market area for more mobile housing demand, including
incomers. In large metropolitan areas there may be intermediate market areas based on metropolitan
sectors, such as on either side of a river.
The concept of local and mobile housing demand is important because mobile demand at the sectoral
or metropolitan level can be met by local surpluses or by the selection of the most sustainable new
locations for development. The concept supports metropolitan sustainability.
The future demand for "market" housing, for owner occupation or private rental, and the future need for
"affordable", or social housing, will need to be assessed. These will then have to be considered against
the "effective" housing supply, that is, the existing housing stock and the anticipated output from
developable land over the plan period. The effective land supply will include planned and "windfall"
sites (those that arise through unforeseen social and economic change over the planning period).
Foresight and credibility
Any approach to the assessment of future levels of demand/need and supply for housing development
will have uncertainties associated with it. Demographic, household, economic and migration forecasts
are inter-related and the data on which they are based may have varying degrees of confidence
associated with it.
The point of exercising foresight on an issue such as balancing housing demand/need with housing
supply is to establish the broad direction, magnitude and pace of change as a basis for locational
choices based on a reasoned justification. The data on which such a reasoned justification is based can
be improved over time, as can the understanding of the relationships between data sets.
A preferred housing strategy will be continuously tested by realty as it emerges. If metropolitan
planning includes a process of regular updating (monitoring and review) then corrective action can be
taken, as it is needed.
The best safeguard to the credibility of any longer term housing strategy will be a process of regular
updating and rolling forward.
PHIMA - Planning for Housing in Metropolitan Areas
PHIMA has been developed by METREX as a strategic planning tool to help metropolitan areas to
develop and regularly review a longer term housing strategy based on the best available data and the
best available understanding of the forces for change and the relationships between them.
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Metropolitan Dimension to sustainable housing futures
Metropolitan Areas and Housing Market Areas (HMA)
The European Urban Audit (2008) has identified some 127 larger urban areas with populations over 500k.
These are Europe’s Metropolitan Areas and they contain over 200m of Europe’s 500m population.
Such major metropolitan areas will comprise localities with their own identity and social and economic
needs, including housing. Localities will sit within wider metropolitan sectors, which supply higherlevel services and employment opportunities. The metropolitan area itself will attract mobile incomers
as its economy changes and develops.
The first step in the use of PHIMA is to define the Metropolitan Area in question and its component local
and metropolitan sector Housing Market Areas. It may be that existing local authority areas
(municipalities, communes, etc.) can be used initially to define local housing market areas and that
groupings of such authorities can be used to define metropolitan sector market areas.
The data that will inform these judgments will be information on housing moves within local authority
areas, between local authorities and into the metropolitan area. Such data may be sourced from
information on housing sales or rentals. Its availability will depend on the balance between home
ownership and rental housing (public and private) in the metropolitan area concerned and the
processes for recording sales and rentals. Alternatively, it could be obtained through appropriate
surveys.
Information on housing moves will indicate the degree of self-containment of a local housing market
area. Highly self-contained areas might be excluded from the comparison of supply and demand at the
metropolitan sector or metropolitan market areas. Those areas with high levels of movements to other
parts of the metropolitan area will clearly need to be included in the PHIMA process, where the scale
and significance of such moves can be considered at the metropolitan sector and metropolitan market
area levels.
Housing mobility
Housing moves may take place at the local level for reasons of local household need (for example,
growing families and/or an aging population), at the metropolitan sector level for reasons of
employment (for example, to be closer to places of work and minimise commuting) or at the
metropolitan level for reasons of economic change (for example, to accommodate incoming employees).
The important point is to recognise that longer-term metropolitan housing demand has local and
mobile components and that the mobile component can be met within wider metropolitan sectors or
within the metropolitan area as a whole.
This means that there will be a metropolitan dimension to the locational choices to be made about
longer-term housing development and these choices should clearly be made on the most sustainable
basis possible. It means that factors such as their relationship to the metropolitan transportation
system and their environmental impact should be taken into account.
PHIMA reflects these realities by recognising that metropolitan areas have local, metropolitan
sectoral and metropolitan levels of housing demand. It offers a process for balancing longer-term
housing demand and supply at these three levels.
This is the Metropolitan Dimension to sustainable housing futures.
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Core components of PHIMA
The three core components of PHIMA are,
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Housing demand by Market Area
Housing supply by Market Area
Balancing housing demand and supply over Market Areas
Housing demand by Market Area
Housing demand within metropolitan areas will be generated by demographic change and household
formation and by inward and outward migration.
Household forecasts
Demographic change may result in population decline but there may nevertheless be more households
if household size is reducing. Conversely, demographic change may result in population increase but
there may be fewer households if household size is increasing. In reality all these factors will be taken
into consideration in the process of household forecasting over the longer-term.
Household forecasts will also have regard to inward and outward migration. This will usually be driven
by economic change and the relative attractiveness of the metropolitan economy over the longer term.
Such an assessment will have regard to metropolitan economic trends and economic policy for the
purpose of exploring housing futures.
Local Housing Market Area demand forecasts
Demographic change, household formation and inward and outward housing moves, at the local market
area level (municipalities, communes etc.) will need to be forecast over the longer-term on a consistent
basis over the metropolitan area. Such forecasts will give an overall figure for notional longer-term
housing demand at the local level.
However, a proportion of this demand will be mobile. An assessment of the scale and significance of
the mobile element of local demand can be made either using local data on the origin and destination of
house purchasers or those renting housing (in the private or public sectors).
Moves to adjoining local market areas (municipalities or communes) may then be considered as moves
within the relevant metropolitan sector. Moves beyond adjoining local housing market areas, or into the
metropolitan area, can be considered as metropolitan moves for employment or retirement purposes.
Metropolitan Sector Market Area forecasts
This level of demand will comprise those housing moves that are between adjoining local housing
market areas within a metropolitan sector.
Metropolitan Market Area forecasts
This level of demand will comprise those housing moves that are beyond adjoining local market areas
or into the metropolitan area (inward migrants).
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Housing Supply by Market Area
Housing supply within metropolitan areas will be provided by the longer-term housing stock (existing
stock less any demolitions), planned development opportunities (housing completions from zoned or
allocated housing land) and “windfall” development opportunities. Windfall means development
opportunities arising from unplanned sources such as redundant industrial, commercial or public sites.
The important judgment will be the realistic output from such sources at the Local Market Area level
over the planning period. This will comprise what can be considered as the “effective” housing supply.
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Balancing housing demand and supply over Market Areas
The forecasts for housing demand at the Local Market Area level can be compared with the Local
Housing Market Area effective housing supply. Where there are surpluses of supply over demand these
can be carried upwards to the level of the metropolitan sector to meet the mobile demand at this level.
Where there are surpluses at the level of the metropolitan sector these can be carried upwards to meet
the mobile demand at the metropolitan level.
There may be shortfalls within a Local Market Area. This will provide metropolitan guidance on the
scale of additional supply that might be sought through local planning action.
There may be shortfalls within Metropolitan Sector Market Areas. This will provide guidance on the
scale of additional supply that might be sought though strategic metropolitan planning decisions at this
level.
There may also be an overall shortfall of supply at the Metropolitan Market Area level where strategic
metropolitan planning decisions will similarly be required.
Within this balanced strategic housing planning overview both local and metropolitan planning action
can be taken over the longer-term.
Most importantly the scale and significance of housing as a component of the metropolitan strategy
will have been assessed on a reasoned and justified basis. Any strategic land release can then be
made at the most sustainable longer-term locations.
Metropolitan strategies
Housing will be a primary component of any longer-term metropolitan strategy. It will generate the
need for supporting transportation and other infrastructure and related public and private sector
services and employment. It is, therefore, the first and most important strategic spatial planning and
development assessment that will be made in any metropolitan planning process.
It is for this reason that METREX has developed the Planning for Housing tool, PHIMA, to support a
wider recognition of the significance of the Metropolitan Dimension to European urban affairs.
PHIMA contributes to the effectiveness of metropolitan spatial planning and development practice at
the metropolitan level.
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Working example based on Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Metropolitan Area
Introduction
The PHIMA process, described and illustrated earlier, has been progressively developed over the period
1976-1996 by the former Strathclyde Regional Council and, thereafter, over the period 1996-2011 by the
Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Strategic Development and Planning Authority (GCVSDPA – formerly the
GCV Structure Plan Joint Committee – GCVSPJC).
In Scotland the process of Structure Planning has now been superseded by the Strategic Development
Plan process as part of which Strategic Development Planning Authorities, such as GCVSDPA, are
required to produce supporting Housing Need and Demand Assessments (HNDA).
The GCVSDPA has recently produced its 2011 Strategic Development Plan and Housing Need and
Development Assessment. Both can be downloaded from the GCVSDPA web site at
www.gcvsdpa.gov.uk
This working example draws on published data from the GCVPDA in its Housing Demand and Needs
Assessment (HNDA - 2011) and supporting Technical Appendices. However, it is very important to
emphasise that in Scotland demand and supply for private sector (owner occupied/rented) housing and
need and supply for public sector (social rented) housing are generally calculated separately. This is
because owner occupation/rental is related to Housing Market Areas and the public rented housing is
related to Local Authority administrative areas.
Limitation
In this working example, METREX has made some pro rata allocations of rented need and supply to
housing market areas in order to provided notional all tenure figures at the housing market area levels.
The purpose of this is to test the PHIMA model on an all tenure basis for use in all European
metropolitan areas.
The figures in this working example are not, therefore, appropriate for use in any housing policy
discussions in the GCVSDPA. They are useful only for the purpose for which they were produced,
which is to illustrate and pilot the PHIMA model for use in Europe.
Working example based on the Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Metropolitan
Area (GCVMA)
In the GCVMA the Housing Market Area approach has been used as part of the Strategic Development
Plan process to assess owner occupied housing demand and supply, which constitutes some 70% of
total housing demand.
Clearly, in other European metropolitan areas the socio-economic circumstances will be different. In
particular, the housing tenure issues will be different. In the GCVMA a key issue is seen to be the land
supply for future owner occupied housing development but in other European metropolitan areas, with
different tenure balances (between owner occupation and public and or private rental or mixtures of
ownership and rental) an overall view of total housing demand and supply may be more appropriate.
The working example uses GCV data to produce an all tenure total households/total effective housing
supply assessment.
The GCVMA contains 8 Local Authorities with a forecast population of 1.8m in 2025 and forecast
households of 918k. The GCVMA contains 11 inter related Local Housing Market Areas (HMA), based on
the collation of Local Authority Sub Areas. There are 2 self contained HMA.
Where Local Authority boundaries do not accord with Housing Market Areas the difficult process of
subdividing Local Authority areas and then re-aggregating these into Housing Market Areas will have to
be undertaken.
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Table 1 and Diagram 1 below show how this has been achieved in the GCVMA. Diagram 2 on Balancing
metropolitan housing demand and supply illustrates the PHIMA process in practice.
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Forecasting metropolitan households
Identifying local housing demand
Identifying mobile demand in Metropolitan Sectors (2 in the case of the GCVMA – the Central
and Eastern Sectors)
Identify mobile demand at the Metropolitan level
Balancing Local demand with effective supply
Balancing Metropolitan Sector mobile demand with local surplus supply
Balancing Metropolitan mobile demand with Sector surplus supply
Identifying the need for additional supply at the Local, Metropolitan Sector and Metropolitan
Housing Market Area (HMA) levels
The working example in Table 2 shows how housing demand and supply can be balanced in the period
to 2025.
Tenuring
Where users of PHIMA wish to explore the future balance between various housing tenures (owner
occupation, public or private rental etc.) then assumptions can be included in the process.
For example, saturation point for home ownership could be explored. In the UK this is in the range 6070%, having regard to those households for which ownership is socially or economically impossible.
Affordable housing
Where users of PHIMA wish to explore the issue of housing affordability, in the owner occupied or rental
sectors, then assumptions can be included in the process.
For example, house purchase prices at the bottom 10-25% of the metropolitan price range can be
compared with household mortgaging capability. In the UK this is generally considered as 3.0 times a
single person household income or 3.5 a two person household income.
Diagrams 3 and 4 show how tenuring and affordability can be included in the PHIMA process.
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Table&1&(&Local&Housing&Market&Areas&in&the&Glasgow&and&the&Clyde&Valley&Metropolitan&Area&(GCVMA)
31 Local Authority Sub Areas in the GCVMA
1 Bearsden and Milngavie
8 Local Authorities in the GCVMA
West Dunbartonshire
2 Strathkelvin
3 Eastwood
Easat Dunbartonshire
4 Levern Valley
5 Ballieston, Shetteleston and Greater Easterhouse
North Lanarkshire
11 Local Housing Market Areas in the GCVMA
1
30 Clydebank
1
1
31 Dumbarton and Vale of Leven
1
30 Clydebank
2
1
2
2 Strathkelvin
1
11 Maryhill/Kelvin and Canal
14 West
3
18 Airdrie and Coatbridge
1
6 Central and West
3
19 Cumbernauld
2
7 East Centre and Calton
3
20 Motherwell
2
6 Central and West
2 Strathkelvin
8 Govan and Craigton
South Lanarkshire
4
26 Clydesdale
3
South Lanarkshire
4
27 East Kilbride
3
10 Langside and Linn
4
28 Hamilton
4
4
29 Rutherglen and Cambuslang
5
12 North East
East Renfrewshire
14 West
Renfrewshire
19 Cumbernauld
3 Eastwood
5
3 Eastwood
5
5
4 Levern Valley
5
9 Greater Pollok and Newlands/Auldburn
6
21 Johnston/Elderslie
5
15 Inverclyde East
6
22 North Renfrewshire
5
13 Pollokshielsd and Southside Central
16 Inverclyde West
6
23 Paisley/Linwood
5
17 Kilmacolm and Quarriers Village
6
24 Renfrew
6
6
25 West Renfrewshire
6
6
6
7
15 Inverclyde East
6
23 Paisley/Linwood
7
16 Inverclyde West
6
24 Renfrew
6
19 Cumbernauld
20 Motherwell
Inversclyde
Glasgow City
8
4 Levern Valley
23 Paisley/Linwood
8
6 Central and West
6
24 Renfrew
8
7
27 East Kilbride
8
8
26 Clydesdale
8
27 East Kilbride
8
Strahkelvin and Springburn
12 North East
Greater Glasgow North and West
Glasgow Esat
Cumbernauld
Greater Glasgow South
Renfrewshire
East Kilbride
9
20 Motherwell
Motherwell
10
26 Clydesdale
Clydesdale
11
28 Hamilton
8
28 Hamilton
Hamilton
8
12 North East
*
15 Inverclyde East
Inverclyde East
30 Clydebank
8
*
16 Inverclyde West
Inverclyde West
8
14 West
*
Dumbarton and Vale of Leven
*
Self contained HMA
Diagram 17
Housing Market Areas
Dumbarton / Vale of Leven
Housing Market Area
Inverclyde
Housing Market Area
4
2
1
6
8
3
Eastern Conurbation
Housing Market Area
9
5
Central Conurbation
Housing Market Area
11
7
10
Housing Market Areas
1st Tier Housing Market Area Conurbation
2nd Tier Housing Market Area Central Conurbation
1 Greater Glasgow North and West
2 Strathkelvin and Springburn
3 Glasgow East
4 Cumbernauld
5 Greater Glasgow South
6 Renfrewshire
7 East Kilbride
2nd Tier Housing Market Area Eastern Conurbation
9 Motherwell
10 Clydesdale
11 Hamilton
Discrete Housing Market Areas
Dumbarton and Vale of Leven
Inverclyde
© Crown copyright and database right 2011. All rights reserved. Ordnance Survey Licence number 100032510.
GLASGOW AND THE CLYDE VALLEY STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN PROPOSED PLAN June 2011
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Table 2 - Working example - Balancing metropolitan housing demand and supply (all tenures)
Metropolitan
households
Forecasts for planning period
2008-2025
Metropolitan
Sector HMA
Metropolitan
HMA
Local HMA
Local HMA
Metropolitan
Sector HMA
Metropolitan
HMA
Local
demand
Mobile
demand
Mobile
demand
Effective
supply
Local
shortfall
Mobile
shortfall
Mobile
shortfall
Need for
additional
supply at
any HMA
level
10.209
Metropolitan area
857.457
828.303
26
3
869.453
30.445
4.722
1.292
% (rounded)
100.00
96.60
3.00
0.40
3.50
0.54
0.15
Metropolitan Sector
646.357
624.381
19.391
100.00
1.33
656.260
21.175
1.784
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Local HMA
Local HMA
Local HMA
Local HMA
Local HMA
Local HMA
Local HMA
Metropolitan Sector
8
9
10
11
Local HMA
147.930
47.822
64.763
47.064
187.549
110.193
52.117
211.100
Local HMA
Local HMA
Local HMA
Local HMA
142.900
46.196
62.561
45.464
181.172
106.446
50.345
203923
50.351
69.502
57.682
33.565
148.337
51.404
68.248
46.538
180.768
110.901
50.0642
6.333
48.639
67.139
55.721
32.424
213.193
5.437
5.208
5.687
1.074
-0.404
4.454
-0.281
9.270
50.913
73.318
56.129
32.833
2.937
2.274
6.179
0.408
0.409
Diagram 3 - Metropolitan tenured housing demand and supply assessment process
Step 2
Step 3
Step 4
Step 5
Step 6
Metropolitan
Sector surplus
Need for additional
mobile owner
available to meet met-
owner occupied
occupied housing
ropolitan mobile owner
supply at the
demand
occupied demand
metropolitan level
Sector mobile
Local surplus available
Need for additional
owner occupied
to meet sector mobile
owner occupied supply
housing demand
owner occupied
supply at thee sector
demand
level
Demographic forecasts
Local owner occuoied
Local effective
Local surplus or
Need for additional
Migration assumptions
housing demand
owner occupied
shortfall of owner
owner occupied
housing supply
occupied housing
supply at the local
supply
level
Household forecasts
Local and mobile demand
Tenure
Owner occupied
Affordable maximum
demand 70%?
Rented (public/private)
Affordable minimum
need 30%?
Diagram 4 -Metropolitan affordable housing demand and supply assessment process
Step 2
Step 3
Step 4
Step 5
Step 6
Metropolitan
Sector surplus
Need for additional
mobile affordable
available to meet
affordable supply at
housing demand
metropolitan mobile
the metropolitan level
demand
Sector mobile
Local surplus
Need for additional
affordable
available to meet
affordable supply
housing demand
sector mobile
at the sector level
affordable demand
Demographic forecasts
Local affordable
Local effective
Local surplus or
Need for additional
Migration assumptions
housing demand
affordable housing
shortfall of affordable
affordable supply
supply
housing supply
at the local level
Household forecasts
Local and mobile demand
Affordability
Price
Lowest 10-25%
Household income
3.0 single - 3.5 double
Using PHIMA on-line
The detailed guidance below will be included on the web site to assist those using PHIMA on line at
www.eurometrex.org
Step 1 – Define the Housing Market Area
The operation of a metropolitan housing market can be seen in the travel to work flows within the
metropolitan area. In the classic single centre metropolitan area most of the employment opportunities
are to be found around a central area, which acts as a focal point for the operation of the housing
market system. Incomers taking up employment in this central area will have the opportunity to
consider housing opportunities across the wider metropolitan area. The market areas for social rented
housing tend to reflect the boundaries of the local administrative bodies with housing responsibilities,
but the market areas for private rental and owner occupied housing do not respect administrative
boundaries. The market area for upper-market or executive private housing usually operates across the
wider metropolitan area.
The strategic planning process needs to reflect the structure of the metropolitan housing market if it is
to optimise the choice of sustainable development opportunities. The following steps are required to
establish an appropriate housing market area structure.
Metropolitan Housing Market Area (MHMA)
•
The outer boundary of the MHMA needs to be confirmed. In many cases it will approximate
with the administrative boundaries of the metropolitan area, which tend to run through
unpopulated areas. In some cases there may be an overlap with the area of an adjoining
strategic planning authority and some form of joint planning arrangement may be required to
ensure sustainable development opportunities are selected. Information on housing led
migration and housing search patterns can be used, but commuting patterns can also shed
light on the location of this boundary.
Sectoral Housing Market Areas (SHMA)
•
Within the MHMA it is likely that the geography of an area will tend to sub-divide the MHMA. A
river or an estuary can lead to the subdivision of the MHMA or the availability of transportation
facilities can result in part of the MHMA operating as a sub-regional or sectoral part of the
MHMA. As a result a certain proportion of the housing searches will extend beyond the
immediate locality, but not cover the whole MHMA. Information on housing search patterns
and housing led migration can be used to identify such Sectroral Housing Market Areas.
Local Housing Market Areas (LHMA).
•
The great majority of housing led migration will take place within a locality in order to
minimise travel to work journeys and to retain social and family linkages. Local Housing
Market Areas often coincide with the boundaries of the social housing authority. LHMAs can be
confirmed by information on housing led migration and housing search patterns.
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Steps 2/3 – Setting Housing Demand Levels
Demographic forecasts will provide population projections for each LHMA with migration assumptions
harmonised with economic forecasts for the metropolitan area. Total household numbers for each
LHMA are derived from the population projections and this requirement is subdivided to reflect the
housing market structure as follows.
Mobile housing demand at the Metropolitan level
•
A very small proportion of total housing demand relates to housing moves, which involve a
search across the whole MHMA. Usually such moves area related to economic migration from
outside the metropolitan area, but some of that migration will have a predetermined
destination and will not be fully mobile. A judgement is therefore required on the proportion of
total household demand, which should be assigned as mobile demand at the metropolitan level.
This judgement can be derived from information on migration and housing search patterns.
Mobile housing demand at the Sectoral level
•
The identification of Sectoral Housing Market Areas is an acknowledgement that a certain
proportion of total household demand in each LHMA will be met by housing opportunities in
adjoining LHMAs. The judgement on the proportion to be allocated to this Sectoral mobile
demand can be derived from information on local migration and housing search patterns.
Local housing demand
•
Locally targeted demand within each LHMA can be calculated as the residual after the
Metropolitan and Sectoral mobile components have been subtracted from the total housing
requirement in each LHMA.
Step 4 – Effective Stock Supply
The most significant component of the housing supply in each LHMA will be the existing housing stock
less any demolitions planned during the plan period. In addition there will be a contribution from the
approved land supply and planned development opportunities, which should be programmed in liaison
with the house-building industry to reflect the likely output over the planned period.
An Urban Capacity Study can identify further contributions from the likely output of existing "brownfield"
(urban) sites, which are not yet formally allocated for housing. Some planning bodies also take into
account the contribution expected from “windfall” development opportunities, which are opportunities
that regularly arise through as yet unknown circumstances. The estimate of the windfall contribution is
based on the expectation that further opportunities will arise from redundant industrial, commercial or
public sites. Despite considerable evidence on the potential scale of this contribution, based on past
experience, it is not always taken into account. Sometimes it is regarded as an element of flexibility.
11
Step 5/6 – Balancing Demand and Supply over Market Areas
The information on the strategic demand patterns and the potential supply can be used to identify the
scale of local and metropolitan planning action required over the plan period. The hierarchical
expression of demand provides the opportunity to meet the housing needs of the metropolitan area in
the most sustainable ways. The approach to the comparison of supply and demand is set out below.
Local Housing Market Areas
•
Locally targeted demand is compared with the effective stock supply in each Local Housing
Market Area. Any shortfalls emerging from this comparison provide the identification of the
scale of local planning action in those LHMAs to meet local housing need. Where the
comparison identifies a surplus of effective stock, the surpluses area accumulated for the
appropriate Sector Market Area.
Sectoral Housing Market Areas
•
For each Sectoral Housing Market Area the accumulated stock surpluses are compared with
the Sectoral mobile demand. A shortfall indicates a need for the strategic planning process to
identify the most sustainable housing development opportunities within that Sector. Any
surpluses at a Sectoral level are accumulated to the Metropolitan Housing Market Area level.
Metropolitan Housing Market Area
•
Any accumulated stock surpluses at the Metropolitan Housing Market Area level are compared
with the metropolitan mobile demand. A shortfall indicates a need for the strategic planning
process to identify the most sustainable additional housing development opportunities across
the whole Metropolitan Housing Market Area
12

Planning for Housing in Metropolitan Areas - METREX

Transcription

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