1154_Bellevue_Ave-Set Up_
Transcription
1154_Bellevue_Ave-Set Up_
MULTI - RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT LOS ANGELES LAS CASITAS 1154 Bellevue Avenue Los Angeles, CA 90012 Price: $7,700,000 Down Payment (37%) $ 2,850,000 Proposed Financing: Buyer shall obtain a new 1st T.D. of $4,850,000 @ 3.5% fixed for 5 years, payable $21,779/Month. Years 6-30, the loan shall be variable (2.25 over 6 month LIBOR) amortized over 30 years and due in 30 years. T. Guide Map/Grid: No. of Units: Unit Mix: Bldg. Sq. Ft.: Lot Size: Yr. Built/Parking: GRM/CAP: Cost/Unit: 634 / F2 33 13-S/1, 12-S+L/1, 4-1/1, 4-1+L/1 20,310 Sq. Ft. 18,189 Sq. Ft. 2008 / 45 13.4 / 4.6% $233,000 Features: X 2008 Year Built – Newer Construction X 3.3% CASH on CASH Return X Excellent Location/Close to Downtown LA X Low Maintenance Building X No Rent Control PROFORMA YEAR 1 CURRENT Scheduled Gross Income: Less Vacancy Reserve (3%): Gross Operating Income: Less Expenses (36%): Net Operating Income: Less Debt Service: Michel Hibbert, CCIM Senior Managing Director Investment Services Group (310) 996-2235 mhibbert@charlesdunn.com Lic. #00893133 :Set Up\1154 Bellevue Ave\2012-[9.26.12-mdg] $573,984 ($17,370) $561,614 ($205,000) $356,614 ($261,348) Cash Flow (Pre-Tax): $95,266 Cash on Cash Return: 3.3% PROPERTY PHOTOGRAPHS 1154 BELLEVUE AVENUE, LOS ANGELES, CA 90012 EXTERIORS Michel Hibbert, CCIM Senior Managing Director Investment Services Group (310) 996-2235 mhibbert@charlesdunn.com Lic. #00893133 :Set Up\1154 Bellevue Ave\2012-[9.26.12-mdg] PROPERTY PHOTOGRAPHS 1154 BELLEVUE AVENUE, LOS ANGELES, CA 90012 INTERIORS Michel Hibbert, CCIM Senior Managing Director Investment Services Group (310) 996-2235 mhibbert@charlesdunn.com Lic. #00893133 :Set Up\1154 Bellevue Ave\2012-[9.26.12-mdg] PROPERTY DESCRIPTION 1154 BELLEVUE AVENUE, LOS ANGELES, CA 90012 PROPERTY DESCRIPTION The subject property is a newer Three-Story Luxury Apartment Building of wood frame/stucco construction. The property was built in 2008 is fully sprinklered and contains 45 parking spaces in a subterranean garage. The unit mix consists of 13-single/one bath units, 12-single + loft/one bath units, 4-one bedroom/one bath units and 4-one bedroom + loft/one bath units. Unit amenities include; dishwasher, microwave oven, refrigerator, central heat and air, balconies and patios, granite bathroom counter tops, crown molding, and walk-in closets. Building amenities include; courtyard, city views, laundry facilities, gated entry and parking. AREA DESCRIPTION The property is located on Bellevue Avenue, just west of Sunset Boulevard in Echo Park. The property is also located just north of Downtown Los Angeles on the East end of Echo Park. Echo Park and Downtown is an area that is attracting successful professionals in many different professions. This has led to a rapid rise in rents and appreciation of property in the area. Michel Hibbert, CCIM Senior Managing Director Investment Services Group (310) 996-2235 mhibbert@charlesdunn.com Lic. #00893133 :Set Up\1154 Bellevue Ave\2012-[9.26.12-mdg] MULTI - RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT 1154 BELLEVUE AVENUE, LOS ANGELES, CA 90012 Unit Breakdown #/Units Type Rent Range Average Rent 13 S/1 $1,150-1,300 $1,237 12 S+L/1 $1,395-1,750 $1,302-1395 $1,583 $1,364 4 1+L/1 $1,625-1,825 $1,738 4 Michel Hibbert, CCIM 1/1 Senior Managing Director Investment Services Group (310) 996-2235 mhibbert@charlesdunn.com Lic. #00893133 :Set Up\1154 Bellevue Ave\2012-[9.26.12-mdg] TENANT SUMMARY 1154 BELLEVUE AVENUE, LOS ANGELES, CA 90012 Unit # Type Current Rent 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 S/1 S/1 S/1 1/1 1/1 S/1 S/1 S/1 S/1 1/1 1/1 S/1 S/1 S/1 S/1 S/1 S/1 S+L/1 S+L/1 1+L/1 1+L/1 S+L/1 S+L/1 S+L/1 S+L/1 1+L/1 1+L/1 S+L/1 S+L/1 S+L/1 S+L/1 S+L/1 S+L/1 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Monthly Income Monthly Laundry Income Other Income Total Monthly Income Total Annual Income Michel Hibbert, CCIM Senior Managing Director Investment Services Group (310) 996-2235 mhibbert@charlesdunn.com Lic. #00893133 :Set Up\1154 Bellevue Ave\2012-[9.26.12-mdg] Comments 1,300.00 1,176.00 1,150.00 1,378.00 1,380.00 1,250.00 1,275.00 1,275.00 1,200.00 1,302.96 1,395.00 1,395.00 1,200.00 1,166.00 1,195.00 1,195.00 1,300.00 1,395.00 1,595.00 1,825.00 1,625.00 1,580.00 1,550.00 1,680.00 1,595.00 1,775.00 1,725.00 1,550.00 1,425.00 1,750.00 1,580.00 1,750.00 1,550.00 Manager $ 47,482.96 $ 350.00 $ 47,832.96 $573,984.96 EXPENSES 1154 BELLEVUE AVENUE, LOS ANGELES, CA 90012 Projected Annual Expenses Real Estate Taxes: $96,250 Property Insurance: $ 6,504 Management (On-Site): $21,000 Management (Off-Site): $22,465 Water & Sewer: $19,409 Electricity: $ 5,261 Gas : $ 4,820 Janitorial Service & Landscape: $ 2,500 Pest Control: $ Trash: $ 2,500 Telephone: $ 2,500 Replacements: $ 6,500 Maintenance/Repairs: $11,400 Miscellaneous Expenses: $ 3,351 TOTAL EXPENSES: Expenses (% of Income) Expense (per Unit / per Bldg. Sq. Ft.) Michel Hibbert, CCIM Senior Managing Director Investment Services Group (310) 996-2235 mhibbert@charlesdunn.com Lic. #00893133 :Set Up\1154 Bellevue Ave\2012-[9.26.12-mdg] 540 $205,000 36% $6,212 / $10.09 RENT SURVEY 1154 BELLEVUE AVENUE, LOS ANGELES, CA 90012 Property Address Unit Type Rental Rate 1/1 $1,749-2,099 2/2 $2,240-2,395 S/1 $1,551-1,836 1/1 $2,100 1/1.5 $2,165-2,213 S/1 $1,500 1/1 $1,675-1,860 2/2 $2,330 S/1 $1,529 1/1 $1,752 2/2 $2,395 S/1 $1,500 1/1 $1,750 Year built: 2010 2/2 $2,300 Pegasus Apartments 612 S. Flower St. Los Angeles, CA 90017 S/1 $1,715-1,940 1/1 $2,195 Year built: 1949 2/1 $2,645-2,815 The Orsini 505 N. Figueroa St. Los Angeles, CA 90012 Year built: 2003 Canvas LA Apartments 138 N. Beaudry Ave. Los Angeles, CA 90012 Year built: 2007 Mozaic 888 N. Alameda St. Los Angeles, CA 90012 Year built: 2006 The Medici 722 S. Bixel St. Los Angeles, CA 90017 Year built: 2002 Visconti 1221 W. 3rd St. Los Angeles, CA 90017 Amenities D/W, M/W, W/D, B/P, Gym, Pool, Resident Lounge D/W, M/W, W/D, B/P, Gym, Pool, Resident Lounge D/W, M/W, W/D, B/P, Pool, Gym, Resident Lounge, Spa D/W, M/W, WD, B/P, Gym, Pool, Residents’ Lounge DW, M/W, B/P, Pool, Business Center L, A/C, M/W, B/P SUBJECT PROPERTY Average Rent Las Casitas 1154 Bellevue Los Angeles, CA 90012 Year built: 2008 S/1 $1,237 S+L/1 $1,583 1/1 $1,364 1+L/1 $1,738 Michel Hibbert, CCIM Senior Managing Director Investment Services Group (310) 996-2235 mhibbert@charlesdunn.com Lic. #00893133 :Set Up\1154 Bellevue Ave\2012-[9.26.12-mdg] D/W, M/W, L, B/P Picture RENT SURVEY MAP 1154 BELLEVUE AVENUE, LOS ANGELES, CA 90012 Michel Hibbert, CCIM Senior Managing Director Investment Services Group (310) 996-2235 mhibbert@charlesdunn.com Lic. #00893133 :Set Up\1154 Bellevue Ave\2012-[9.26.12-mdg] SALES COMPARABLES 1154 BELLEVUE AVENUE, LOS ANGELES, CA 90012 Sale Date Sale Price Year Built Approx. Bldg. Sq Ft No. of Units Cost Per Sq Ft Cost Per Unit GRM CAP Echo Ten Thirty Lofts 1030 N. Alvarado St. Los Angeles, CA 90026 OTM $9,300,000 2010 27,539 20+3 $337.46 $404,348 13 5.4% Park Catalina Apartments 690 S. Catalina Ave. Los Angeles, CA 90005 6/12 $23,650,000 2002 83,000 90 $284.94 $262,778 12.1 4.4% Brockman Lofts 530 W. 7th Street Los Angeles, CA 90014 3/12 $38,750,873 2004 115,117 80 $336.62 $484,386 N/A N/A 1752 N. Kingsley Dr. Los Angeles, CA 90027 3/12 $4,177,000 2007 19,881 13 $210.10 $321,303 12.1 5.75% Glo Apartments 1050 Wilshire Blvd. Los Angeles, CA 90017 12/11 $64,700,000 2008 187,667 201 $344.26 $321,891 14.2 4.2% Hikari Apartments 325 E. 2nd St. Los Angeles, CA 90012 12/11 $37,750,000 2006 94,079 128 $401.26 $294,922 14.3 4.5% Sakura Crossing 235 S. San Pedro St. Los Angeles, CA 90012 12/11 $61,750,000 2009 166,469 230 $370.94 $268,478 14.4 4.5% $326.51 $336,872 13.4 4.8% $379.12 $233,000 13.4 4.6% Address of Property/Unit Mix Averages SUBJECT PROPERTY Las Casitas 1154 Bellevue Avenue Los Angeles, CA 90012 OTM $7,700,000 Michel Hibbert, CCIM Senior Managing Director Investment Services Group (310) 996-2235 mhibbert@charlesdunn.com Lic. #00893133 :Set Up\1154 Bellevue Ave\2012-[9.26.12-mdg] 2008 20,310 33 SALES COMPARABLE MAP 1154 BELLEVUE AVENUE, LOS ANGELES, CA 90012 Michel Hibbert, CCIM Senior Managing Director Investment Services Group (310) 996-2235 mhibbert@charlesdunn.com Lic. #00893133 :Set Up\1154 Bellevue Ave\2012-[9.26.12-mdg] MAPS 1154 BELLEVUE AVENUE, LOS ANGELES, CA 90012 AERIAL VIEW PLAT MAP APN: 5405-030-011 Michel Hibbert, CCIM Senior Managing Director Investment Services Group (310) 996-2235 mhibbert@charlesdunn.com Lic. #00893133 :Set Up\1154 Bellevue Ave\2012-[9.26.12-mdg] Downtown Los Angeles Submarket ■ POPULATION 43,343 ■ AREA 5.8 square miles (Land Area) ■ AVERAGE SIZE/HOUSEHOLD 1.6 ■ POPULATION GROWTH 52.12% (Increase from 2000-2011) ■ MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME $30,056 25 Years of Age or Over: ■ EDUCATION High School Graduates….......…….......…... 22.1% Bachelor Degree…….....………………........ 16.6% D OWNTOWN L OS A NGELES - D ESCRIPTION Downtown’s residential growth has been unprecedented since the Adaptive Reuse Ordinance in 2001 with 7,000 units completed. The growth is expected to generate approximately 36,400 jobs and $5.4 billion in revenue. This revitalization includes: the construction of icons such as Staples Center, LA Convention Center, L.A. Live, the Cathedral of Our Lady of the Angels, and the Walt Disney Concert Hall; the building of thousands of residential units both new and adaptive reuse; the establishment of business improvement districts, the opening of several five-star and more casual sit-down restaurants; the extension of the subway, light-rail and commuter train systems, which makes Downtown the center of public transit for the regional labor pool. Downtown Los Angeles has transformed to a vibrant hub that is truly in a renaissance. The Downtown population of residents, employees and visitors has grown and matured these past several years due to the sheer number of newly opened residential units, residents, nightspots, highend grocery stores and the much anticipated L.A. Live entertainment complex and other amenities and activities that have emerged. Over the past 10 years, Downtown Los Angeles has experienced an extraordinary commercial and residential renaissance. With approximately 40,000 residents, a weekday population of about 500,000 people and 10 million annual visitors, Downtown Los Angeles is an economic engine for Southern California. TRANSPORTATION Los Angeles is home to one of the country’s best public transportation networks, which includes subways, light-rails, buses and shuttles to just about every corner of the Greater Los Angeles Area. Locally, Downtown Los Angeles is the most accessible region in Los Angeles County and is served by Los Angeles Department of Transportation’s (LADOT) Dash system with 6 weekday and 3 weekend routes. Metro Rail, MTA’s light rail & subway system, and has four separate but connected lines, and three of these lines (Red, Blue, Gold) end in the Downtown area. Red and Gold Lines terminate at Union Station, and the Blue Line terminates at 7 th St./Metro. Downtown Los Angeles submarket serves as an integral freeway hub for commuters. The Santa Monica Freeway (Interstate 10) runs along the southern boundary of the submarket, allowing commuters to travel to Culver City and Santa Monica to the west and intersects with several freeways that lead into Eastern Los Angeles and the Inland Empire. The Pasadena Freeway (Interstate 110), located along the western boundary of the submarket, allows commuters to travel to Westmont and Torrance to the south and Pasadena to the north. Interstate 5, which runs through the northern part of the Downtown submarket, joins several freeways to the east and turns into the Hollywood Freeway (Highway 101) to the northwest, providing access to the San Fernando Valley. There are three major airports in close proximity to Downtown Los Angeles. Bob Hope Airport in Burbank is 12 miles north from Downtown Los Angeles and offers commercial flights throughout the United States. Similar to the Bob Hope Airport, the Long Beach Airport offiers commercial flights throughout the western United States and is 16 miles from Downtown Los Angeles. For international travel, Los Angeles International Airport is located 15 miles south west from Downtown Los Angeles. Nearly 9 million travelers passes through LAX every year, and the airport was recently ranked as one of the best in terms of on-time performance and is known to be one of the busiest airports in the nation. NOTABLE LOCATIONS L.A. Live/Staples Center is a 4 million-square-foot/$2.5 billion Downtown Los Angeles sports, residential & entertainment district adjacent to the Los Angeles Convention Center. This area also features a 54-story, 1,000-room convention hotel, Club Nokia, L.A. Live, a 2,200 capacity live music venue, a 14-screen Regal Cineplex, a broadcast facility for ESPN along with entertainment, restaurant and office space. Staples Center opened its doors on October 17, 1999 and in each of its first two years, Staples Center received the prestigious Pollstar-CIC Arena of the Year Award. Staples Center is also host to over 250 events and has nearly 4 million visitors a year. Pershing Square was originally established in 1866, redesigned in the 1950’s and again in the early 1990’s. Pershing Square is now an outdoor concert and event center in the heart of Downtown Los Angeles. The park is exactly one square block in size bounded by 5 th Street to the north, 6 th Street to the south, Hill Street to the east, and Olive Street to the west. Historic Core Neighborhood is located in Downtown Los Angeles between Hill Street and Main Street on the west and east, and 3 rd Street and 9 th Street on the north and south. It is a heavily residential neighborhood and many of those residences are adaptive reuse loft units created from formerly vacant historic commercial and office buildings. Furthermore, it has maintained an artistry vibe to the area and is home to the Downtown Los Angeles Artwalk. Echo Park Submarket ■ POPULATION 46,192 ■ AREA 2.4 square miles (Land Area) ■ AVERAGE SIZE/HOUSEHOLD 2.8 ■ POPULATION GROWTH -8.4% (Increase from 2000-2011) ■ MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME $38,836 25 Years of Age or Over: ■ EDUCATION High School Graduates….......…….......…... 16.8% Bachelor Degree…….....………………........ 20.2% E CHO P ARK - D ESCRIPTION Echo Park is a neighborhood 2 miles northwest of Downtown Los Angeles and 4 miles southeast of Hollywood. The neighborhood has been subject to a major gentrification over the past decade as many artists and professionals move into the area due to its close proximity to Hollywood and Downtown Los Angeles. Major thoroughfares such as Echo Park Boulevard, Sunset Boulevard, Glendale Boulevard and Alvarado Street are lined with trendy commercial retail such as cafes, coffee houses, art galleries, clothing stores, boutiques and restaurants. Echo Park was named one of the Top 10 Great Neighborhoods in 2008 by The American Planning Association (APA). Echo Park was chosen due to “it’s historic architecture, topography, walkable breathtaking and hillside pedestrian-friendly streets, and engaged residents who have worked hard to protect and preserve the community. The area features preserved craftsman-style homes, as well as modern architecture, great schools, parks and libraries. Echo Park is also home to the annual Lotus Festival, the Cuban Festival, and Historic Filipinotown. Lotus Festival, a pan-Asian celebration complete with Chinese dragon boat races, has been held since 1972 and showcases different Asian ethnicity every year. The program was “designed to create in the Southern California community an increased awareness of the contributions to our culture by Asian Americans”, stated in the 1973 second annual program. In previous years, the festival showcases a wide range of diverse musical acts and performers that mirror the Asian demographics of the City of Los Angeles and Pacific region. ECONOMY – Los Angeles County “Los Angeles County lagged its neighbor counties in recovery from the Great Recession over the past two years, but it finally gathered momentum in 2012,” reported the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation (LAEDC) in its 2012-2013 Mid-Year economic forecasts. “The monthly unemployment rate fell by two percentage points in less than a year from the cyclical peak of 13.2% in July 2011 to 11.2% in May 2012. The overall rate of job growth picked up slightly during the second quarter of this year, while a number of industries experienced an uptick in activity and more robust job growth.” Los Angeles is certainly the economic driver of California, and dominates the southern portion of the state with its huge economy as well as its sheer size. However, as the city struggles to regain its footing, the rest of the state has catching up to do. “California struggles to recover lost jobs,” the Los Angeles Business Journal reported July 11th. Using seasonally adjusted figures, this source reports that “nine states and the District of Columbia have recovered all of the jobs they lost during the recession, but 41 other states, including the Golden State, still haven’t bounced back.” The latest Current Employment Survey (CES) data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) show a small gain, but a gain nonetheless, for seasonally unadjusted non-farm employment. Data from May 2011 to May 2012 show a gain of 42,400 payroll jobs (1.1%) in Los Angeles County. As noted in earlier Reis Observer coverage, the self-employed are a large portion of the LA workforce and CES data does not include them. According to household-based data from the BLS, which includes these non-employees, the employment gains are much smaller, with Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics the number of employed residents of Los Angeles County rising by just 24,300 (0.6%) in the year to May 2012, implying that perhaps many of these former free lancers may have finally been taken on as employees. According to the LAEDC, “the aerospace and technology sector includes manufacturing and service industries in aerospace, information technology, electronics, and biomedical technology,” and these industries accounted for 4.7% of non-farm jobs in Los Angeles County in 2011. Meanwhile,” activity in the entertainment industry continues to improve,” the LAEDC reports. From May 2011 to May 2012, according to CES data, payroll employment increased by 5,100 (2.7%) in the Information Sector, led by a gain of 5,200 (4.3%) in the Motion Picture and Sound Recording industry. It should be noted, however, that Film L.A—which coordinates permits for filmed entertainment shot in the area, announced in early July that “overall on-location production slipped slightly last quarter compared to the same period last year.” The Financial Activities sector added 4,900 jobs (2.3%) year-over-year as of May, and Professional and Business Services employment increased by 18,300 (3.4%). The latter includes an increase of 10,300 (12.3%) in the Employment Services industry, which includes temporary workers. Manufacturing continues to lose ground. This sector lost another 5,800 jobs (1.6%) and Transportation and Warehousing was barely positive with 600 (0.4) jobs gained. Wholesale Trade saw a similarly anemic performance, gaining 400 jobs (0.2%) through May 2012. There was welcome news in the Construction sector; however, as 3,100 jobs (3.0%) jobs were added yearover-year in May. Public works have been active, as The Source reported in April that the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority certified “the Final Environmental Impact Statement/Report (EIS/EIR) for the $1.37- billion Regional Connector Transit Corridor Project that will connect three light rail lines through Downtown Los Angeles.” According to Curbed LA, once completed, the Connector will allow people “to train travel across the County without transfers,” one of the city’s long–sought goals, the Food and Beverage Store industry added 3,200 jobs (3.7%) and the big-box General Merchandise Stores industry added 2,200 jobs (3.4%). All in all, total Private Employment increased by 50,600 jobs (1.6%). Los Angeles Employment by Sector Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics MARKET EVALUATION Market Trends – Los Angeles County The 764,786-unit market-rate investment grade Los Angeles rental apartment market remains one of the nation’s premier multifamily markets, with low vacancy and high rents. Demand is strong, rents continue to grow (although not as much as first quarter 2012) and the city retains its edge as a high-end residence location for a broad spectrum of the rental market. OCCUPANCY Reis reports a second quarter 2012 vacancy rate of 3.6%, down 10 basis points from the prior quarter, and 80 from a year earlier. The current Class A rate is 4.8%, up 10 basis points over the quarter but down 70 basis points year-over-year. The Class B/C market has a 3.0% vacancy rate, down 30 basis points for the quarter, and down 90 basis points over twelve months. Measured at year-end, the overall vacancy rate for this market had varied between 2.0% and 5.3% in recent years, well below the U.S. and West Region averages. In their third quarter 2012 report, Marcus & Millichap states “the countywide vacancy rate will decline 50 basis points year-over-year to 3.4%.” This source noted that “an economic recovery and shaky housing market have broadened demand for rental units in Los Angeles County. Over the last year, countywide vacancy improved 80 basis points to 3.6%.” According to Jones Lang LaSalle’s 2012 Multifamily Property Forecast, “vacancy, which is below the national average, is likely to drop further” and that the market “is registering 96% to 97% occupancy.” Reis reports a national average of 4.7% and a West region average of 4.0%, so Los Angeles is outperforming its national and regional peers. Vacancy is forecast to fall even further, according to Reis, reaching 3.1% by year-end 2012 and increasing only slightly in the years to follow, indicating a market with effectively full occupancy for the foreseeable future. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Demand slowed in the second quarter of 2012, Reis reports, but a substantial 1,236 units of net absorption were still recorded. The total for first quarter was 2,244, bringing the mid-year total to 3,480 units, not quite halfway to the 2011 mark of 8,910 units, which was the highest in over 10 years. After averaging just over 1,540 units from 2000 to 2010, 2011 was a standout performance, especially after the negative net absorption reported in both in 2008 and 2009 because of the recession. Indeed, the years 2010 (6,736 units of net absorption) and 2011 could be seen as marking the end of this market’s inconsistent demand profile. As of this report date, new constructions data from Reis indicate just over 800 units in eight projects have completed, leaving more 7,201 units under construction. Of these about 1,000 currently have 2012 completion dates. New construction has been uneven lately, with the 1,680 units built in 2011 overshadowed by 4,000 in 2010. Prior years saw both higher and lower totals; the current inventory is within 2,500 units of the amount recorded at the end of 2010. According to Marcus & Millichap, “in the past 12 months, 1,262 units were completed, a 0.2% addition to total inventory. In the previous year-long stretch, builders added about 2,800 rentals.” This source reports that “over 2,600 units are currently under way in the county, and more than 19,500 are in the planning pipeline.” According to Jones Lang LaSalle, “while development is resuming, demand exceeds current supply and this is expected to continue in 2012.” Looking forward, Reis sees a similar scenario, estimating about 1,800 new units for 2012, largely overmatched by 7,867 units of net absorption. This is a huge difference for any market. Construction and demand is forecast to be more closely aligned through the remaining years of the Reis forecast. For the entire 2012 to 2016 period the predicted totals are 21,010 units of new supply and 25,585 units of net absorption. RENTS Rents continued to rise in the second quarter, Apartment Rent Trends reflecting the continued tightness of the Los Angeles apartment market. The average asking rent increased 0.7% to $1,435 per month, while the average effective rent rose 0.9% to $1,396 per month. The year-over-year increases are 2.4% and 3.0%, respectively. Rents lost much ground in 2009 and were flat in 2010 as the Great Recession took its toll. The second quarter average asking rent for Class A units was $1,806 per month, up 0.5% for the quarter, and 2.5% year-over-year. The $1,234 per Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics month asking average for Class B/C units is up 0.8% over three months and 2.2% year-over-year. “With vacancy at a historically low level, operators are charting more significant rent growth. In the most recent 12 months, asking rents rose 2.2% to $1,405 per month. Effective rents grew at a more accelerated pace of 2.7% in the same time frame, to average $1,358 per month,” according to Marcus & Millichap. “Class A asking rents were raised more aggressively in the past year, posting a 3.3% jump to $1,785 per month. In the Class B/C sector, asking rents edged up 2.0% to $1,220 per month. During the corresponding period last year, Class A and Class B/C rents grew at rates of 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively,” according to this source. Rents are well positioned in the midpoint of 2012. Although the large annual increases that appeared in the course of the 2000s are not forecast to return, market observers are virtually unanimous in stating that rents are high and set to go higher. Reis forecasts annual increases of 3.7% and 4.6% for asking and effective rents in 2012, with similar gains to follow. “In 2012, asking rents will rise 3.2% to $1,429 per month, while effective rents advance 4.4% to $1,392 per month,” Marcus & Millichap predicts. Multifamily Market Overview – Downtown LA/Echo Park Vacancy Rates: There has been a slight increase in vacancy for Echo Park, ending the 2nd quarter 2012 with 3.1%. The Downtown Los Angeles submarket recorded an overall average vacancy rate of 4.8% in the 2nd quarter 2012, up from 4.7% a year earlier. Rental Rates: Average rental rates in Echo Park rose over the 12-month period ending 2nd quarter 2012, rising from $1,215 to $1,289. In Downtown Los Angeles, average rental rates rose from $1,779 to $1,827 over a 12-month period ending the 2nd quarter 2012. Investment: In the first half of 2012, Downtown LA/Echo Park witnessed 8 multifamily transactions that closed with a total volume of approximately $55 million. The eight buildings totaled 238,499 square feet and the average price per square foot equated to $230.67 per square foot. Source: REIS, Costar, LAEDC, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Pitney Bowes Business Insight