Identifying Weather Risk and Incorporating It into Your Marketing Plan

Identifying Weather Risk and
Incorporating It Into Your Marketing Plan
Amarillo, Texas
Presented by:
Dr. S. Elwynn Taylor
Extension Climatologist
Iowa State University
Identifying Weather Risk and Incorporating
It Into Your Marketing Plan
Weather is always a critical factor in the success
of a farm operation. In this course participants will
gain a better understanding on how to identify long
range weather patterns and their potential impacts on
crop yields. Yield trends, a balance sheet approach and
the use of growing degree days will be discussed. The
effect of high temperatures, low precipitation and how
you evaluate stress impact will be addressed. Finally, a
unique approach incorporating weather and market risk
into a marketing strategy will be presented.
— S. E. Taylor
Weather Outlook
“for Agriculture”
H
S. Elwynn Taylor
Iowa State University Extension Climatologist
Agronomist
Crop Weather
Risk 2010
Elwynn Taylor
Iowa State University
setaylor@iastate.edu
y
www.twitter.com/elwynntaylor
www.extension.iastate.edu
Iowa State University Extension
1
Monday 30 Dec 2009 “Snow
Day”
64.1% of
the “48“48
state”
area is
snow
covered.
70
% of 48‐State area snow covered
on 30 December
30 D
b
60
50
Is late December 40
30
snow cover
increasing in the 20
10
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/
US?
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Even Snowmobiles Have
Traffic Jams
2
69.7%
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/
Normal low is 29
Normal high is 49
Precip – Sat < 0.25
DFW Snow
John: Good point. Here in the DFW area,
our 5 snowiest winters since 1950 are as
follows:
1) 1977/78 17.6”
2) 2009/2010 15.7” (as of Feb 21, 2010)
3) 1963/64
15.3”
4) 1976/77 10.4”
5) 1965/66 7.3”
According to an analysis by the Fort Worth
Alloffice,
5ffioff th
these
i td iicewere/are
/ th El
Ni
Ninos.
NWS
snowwinters
and
iin N
North
T
Texas
are
Victor
far more likely in El Nino years than in other
circumstances.
- John
John Nielsen-Gammon [n-g@tamu.edu]
3
4
Take-A-Risk or
Manage Risk?
5
Risk Can
Be
Managed
Warmest since 1992
2004
Coldest since 1992
July T anomaly
6
H
US Corn Yield
1970-2009
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
y = 1.9236x - 3710.5
70
60
1970
1980
1990
2000
Texas Corn Yield
2010
H
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
1970
1980
Texas Corn 1970-2009
1990
2000
2010
7
H
Texas Cotton Yield
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Texas Cotton
TomGreen co TX Wheat Yield 1979-2008
35
y = 0.1806x - 340.31
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
8
H
H
9
H
Average Annual Precipitation
60
H
http://www.met.tamu.edu/met/osc/tx
TX Annual Precipitation
50
Inch
40
30
20
10
0
PECOS
LUBBOCK
SAN
RGNL AP ANGELO
MATHIS
AP
MCALLEN
SAN
LUFKIN 11
ANTONIO
NW
INTL AP
City
10
Controlled by:
Hawaii
Bermuda
TX Climate
H
H
PDO
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
11
H
Dry Line
Warm& Dry Weather
H
Favorable
Weather Pattern
Drought
Weather Pattern
12
Drought 1987
Drought 1988
13
Forecast:
What it is doing
What
it has done before
The worst drought spanned the period
H
1950 to 1957. Much has been written
about this drought; among the more
impressive statistics from this period is
Texas's statewide average precipitation
for the month of October 1952: 0.02
inches.
(then the general Midwest
drought came in 1954.
May 16, 1917, Texas: Hail covered
the ground up to 3 feet deep in
Ballinger, reportedly taking seven
days to clear.
14
Galveston 1900
Stratford, TX 1935
15
Lubbock 1983
Oklahoma 1999
16
San Antonio 2002
17
Helen Groves (of
Baird, TX)
18
Tsunami
19
Climate,
Past & Future
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“The climate is changing,
changing
climate has always
changed & will always
change.
g
The q
question is;;
‘how much, how fast, how
come?’ ” D. M. Gates ‘66
20
U.S. drought
starts here.
Tree Rings
Roanoke, NC cypress tree.
Dennis Blanton, Wm & Mary
College, David Stahle, Univ.
of Arkansas.
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800 Year
Rain
(Virginia)
21
Long-term Trend
dry
H
wet
19 yr Dry/Wet
Tree rings indicate
climate cycles.
22
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Ames 1900s
Farmer Benner
In 1885 noted
dry/wet cycle.
history
19922004
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Dust Bowl
forecast
23
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Benner Drought
Risk
Yield BPA
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
Calif
24
Calif. Tornados 21 Feb 05
Climate Does Change
25
Look Quick
H
Benner Drought
Risk
Yield BPA
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
26
Weather
Risk
• Benner Cycle
• Soil Moisture
• El Niño
27
H
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/
www.elnino.noaa.gov
H
28
2010 Condition (El Niño)
2009 Corn (Dec)
H
H
2009 crop
148 BPA $5.10
157.5 BPA $3.95
161 BPA $3.90
Narrow range (27 Feb ‘09)@ $3.91
29
Our Feb ‘09 estimate Dec Corn: $3.90
yield estimate 161 BPA
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Overnight 3 Dec. e-Corn Price: $3.93 ¼
Estimated yyield 162.9 BPA
Likely U.S. Corn 2010
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• 160 BPA with Dec Corn @ $3.91 in Oct-Nov.
Feb 24 10AM $4.06¾
$4 06¾
30
Long-term Yield Risk U.S.
For neutral ENSO on June
126
Roll 7
$6.28 142
17%
1st,
2010
181
23%
Roll 8 or 10
173
$4.80 150
H
29%
$3.12
31%
Feb 24,‘10 $4.07
164* $3.85
* Likely if El Niño
$4.06 157
160
$3.91
Odds by Elwynn 1 Dec 09
Dec Corn 2010 by
Wisner 18 Dec 2009
Iowa State University Extension
H
El N i n o
4
El Niño
2, 6, 8
Roll a “4” ( 1-in-12 ) Low Yield
Roll a “2, 6, or 8” High Yield
164 $3.85
31
H
L a N i ña
173
$3.12
La Niña
70% Chance of
Below Trend U.S.
Corn (Maize) Yield
157
$4.06
142
$6.28
147 $5.15
Rolling a “7” or a “6” is a
drought. Corn > $4.00/bu
Iowa State University Extension
H
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
32
IA 142 years Corn (1866-2007)
• Erratic period
: Consistent
Yield BPA
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
H
33
of citrus’, sandwiches, & climates change
H
34
Global Energy Demand is Rising Rapidly Because
Energy Consumption and Income are Linked
It took more land to produce fuel for my
“hay burner” than to grow food for us .
A Horse, A Wagon, 1/3 acre, 6 hens & 1
Rooster
35
Enough Yield for Food & Fuel?
For bio fuel potential native
Midwest p
prairie is superior
p
to corn
AS OF NOW
Can We Double Corn Yield?
U.S. Corn Bu/acre
2030 200 B
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
1979 100 BPA
100
90
80
70
60
1956 50 BPA
50
40
30
1930 25 BPA
20
10
0
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
36
Sea Level & Climate Change
70% must move
http://geochange.er.usgs.gov/pub/sea_level/
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
37
Do Not be fooled by 30 years of “cooling”
Our
“Green”
efforts
continue,
they may
help
p
H
38
Bio-fuel
H
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Ethanol_Plants/index.asp
H
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Ethanol_Plants/Texas/index.asp
39
H
2008‐10 SOI (90‐day)
Fading El Niño can be a change to Hot & dry. Will it fade?
20
SOI= -1.23 23 Feb. 2010
15
10
5
0
14‐Nov‐07
22‐Feb‐08
1‐Jun‐08
9‐Sep‐08
18‐Dec‐08
28‐Mar‐09
6‐Jul‐09
14‐Oct‐09
22‐Jan‐10
2‐May‐10
‐5
5
‐10
‐15
‐20
2010 Indicators & Impacts
 Benner (19-year) Cycle
 Subsoil moisture
 El Niño possibly fades
 Too wet spring
p g possible
p
 Dry “West” possible

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Wide-spread Corn belt drought not
as likely as SE U.S. has near
normal to moist weather.
Yield likely to be above trend:
Corn 160+
Soy 45 (rust?)
40
END
H
Elwynn Taylor
Iowa State University
setaylor@iastate.edu
www.extension.iastate.edu
Iowa State University Extension
END
Elwynn Taylor
Iowa State Universityy
setaylor@iastate.edu
www.extension.iastate.edu
41
Dust
42
Frost in Kudzu
43
Rust Risk
Rust Over Winter
28F
Dec16
Jan29
44
?Rust Starting at Beaumont area?
45
Agriculture and Natural Resources • Family and Consumer Sciences • 4-H and Youth Development • Community Development
___________________________________________________________________________________
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