Consejo Empresarial ProMéxico Los Ángeles, CA

Consejo Empresarial ProMéxico
Los Ángeles, CA
GLOBAL SUMMIT 2016
WEST SAN GABRIEL VALLEY ASSOCIATION
OF REALTORS
June 14, 2016
Consejo Empresarial ProMéxico
Los Ángeles, CA
TAKING MEXICO´S VITAL SIGNS
TOMANDO LOS
SIGNOS VITALES
DE MÉXICO
Consejo Empresarial ProMéxico
Los Ángeles, CA
How much is
Growing…
GDP Growth
MEXICO'S PIB (GDP) GROWTH OUTLOOK FOR 2016 - 2017
INSTITUTION
IMF (Intl. Monetary Fund)
World Bank (January 2016)
CEPAL (Comisión Económica A. Lat.)
OCDE (Org. para la Cooperación y
Desarrollo Económico)
Credit Suisse
Scotiabank
BANAMEX*
BANXICO
BBVA Bancomer**
SHCP (TREASURY DEPARTMENT)
PIB 2015
(E) PIB GROWTH (E) PIB GROWTH
2016
2017
2.40%
2.70%
2.80%
3.00%
2.30%
NA
2.50%
3.05%
3.30%
2.50%
2.50%
2.40%
2.0 - 3.0%
2.60%
2.6 - 3.6%
NA
3.50%
2.80%
2.5 - 3.5%
NA
2.6 - 3.6%
Sources : IMF, Worl d Ba nk, SHCP, BANXICO, EL FINANCIERO, Scotia ba nk
©IRV De México, 2016
* BANAMEX on June 7 raised its forecast to 2.45 in 2016 and 2.84% in 2017.
** BBVA on June 6 raised its forecast from 2.2% to 2.6%
Consejo Empresarial ProMéxico
Los Ángeles, CA
Inflation &
Interest Rates
Historical
BANXICO raised Interest Rates on March 31 to the current 3.75%
Consejo Empresarial ProMéxico
Los Ángeles, CA
Tasas de
Desempleo
Históricas
Consejo Empresarial ProMéxico
Los Ángeles, CA
Dec. 3, 2015
Comportamiento
de la Tasa de
Cambio US Dollar
Vs M Peso
Mar. 30, 2016
Consejo Empresarial ProMéxico
Los Ángeles, CA
Foreign Direct
Investment in
Mexico
Mexico is ranked No 18 among the top 25 countries considered in the Investment
Confidence Index 2016, above Belgium and Denmark and just below SO. Korean and
Italy. On 2015 Mexico´s ranking was 9th.
Consejo Empresarial ProMéxico
Los Ángeles, CA
Top 5 California´s
Trading Partners
Trade Deficit with Mexico is only 14% of the Trade Deficit with China. Moreover, if
considering that goods Imported from Mexico have a 40% USA content (= $18,028)
the net Deficit is only $221 million.
Data sources: California Chamber of Commerce, International Trade Administration
Consejo Empresarial ProMéxico
Los Ángeles, CA
Comercio entre
los EUA y
México
Important warning: the process of research and analysis that involves the possible Trade adjustments
due to the % of content of USA origin on exports from Mexico is still pending.
Consejo Empresarial ProMéxico
Los Ángeles, CA
Country Risk EMBI+
J. P. Morgan &
International Reserves
(Historical)
Consejo Empresarial ProMéxico
Los Ángeles, CA
AMAZING RESULTS
FROM NAFTA
(Implemented 1994)
8 YEARS AFTER NAFTA
20 YEARS AFTER NAFTA
Mexico Open Market policies: has 15
free trade agreements with 49 countries!
Consejo Empresarial ProMéxico
Los Ángeles, CA
Thanks &
Acknowledgements
To all of you, thank you for listening,
thanks to the West San Gabriel Association of Realtors for
the kind invitation, thanks to ProMéxico for their constant
support to attract foreign investment, increase the USAMexican Trade and the constant improvement of the
relations between Mexico and the United States.
And many thanks to the information sources who made us possible to
prepare this presentation:
El IMF, World Bank, El Economista, El Finaciero, The Economist Intelligence
Unit, J. P. Morgan, Banxico, Banamex, SHCP, INEGI, US Dep. of Commerce
and the OECD.
Questions? Please feel free to contact me @ ofranck@irvaluation.com