Iraq Weekly Security Report

Iraq
Weekly Security Report
May 26, 2015
Security Analysis
May 19 - 25, 2015
Executive Summary
• Baghdad and Shia militia spokesmen announce the launch of a fresh offensive in Anbar to reclaim Ramadi town,
amid ongoing air campaign against Islamic State fighters in western districts.
• Large sections of Baiji refinery damaged in fires, as Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and militia fighters press further into
the districts key disputed areas.
• Conditions across the south continued this week, with tribal conflict, popular unrest and organized crime in
Basra governorate remaining the primary drivers of local instability.
National Overview
Iraqi authorities respond to international criticism with the initiation of fresh operations against the
Islamic State group, as Kurdistan witnesses rare instance of intra-Kurdish violence between rival militia
groups. Central to debates in Iraq’s political and military sphere were the comments of US Defense Secretary Ash
Carter who on Sunday decried Iraq’s Anbar-based troops for showing “no will to fight” despite having considerably outnumbered militants in clashes over the past
month. Whether or not such comments reflected the sitDAHUK
uation on the ground is uncertain given that Iraqi federal
ERBIL
Police and tribal fighters had sustained similar incursions
NINEVEH
in the face of both heavy resistance and dwindling
SULAIMANIYA
KIRKUK
ammunition supplies for over three months prior to the
fall of Ramadi. Nonetheless, Iranian officials were quick
SALAHUDDIN
to respond in kind, accusing the United States of showing “no will” to confront the militants directly, promptDIYALA
ing a bitter exchange of recriminations only halted after
BAGHDAD
ANBAR
vice President Joe Biden intervened to assure the Federal
WASIT
KARBALA BABIL
Republic that Iraq retained America’s full support in the
battle against the Islamic State. On the regional level,
QADISIYA
MAYSAN
recriminations were also felt in the Kurdistan region this
week, as Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) parNAJAF
DHI QAR
Over 30 Incidents
liamentarians issued condemnation and dispatched a
Over 10 Incidents
BASRA
MUTHANNA
cross-party delegation to the Kelashin border area with
Over Five Incidents
Iran, following clashes between the two foreign Kurdish
At Least One Incident
paramilitary groups, the Turkish Kurdistan Workers Party
No Incidents
(PKK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI)
who opened fire on one another on Sunday night.
Reported Violent Incidents May 19 - 25, 2015
Northern Region
Large sections of the Baiji refinery was damaged in fires, as
ISF and militia fighters press
further into the district’s key
disputed areas. While control of both Baiji town
and its refinery complex remain contested between
pro and anti-government forces, Shia Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) fighters are now understood
to have closed off southern and eastern routes into
the facility, following the arrival of hundreds of fresh
Security Analysis
May 19 - 25, 2015
reserves on May 23. In coordination with operations
across Anbar, fresh assaults on occupied positions
are anticipated to begin in the coming days and may
also spread to sites such as Fatha (5 kilometers NE)
and Albu Tumah (10 kilometers SE) which have both
fallen back under militant control while the main
force of the army presses into the urban centers.
Precise estimates of the damage to the Baiji complex
in the course of the battle have yet to be released,
though amateur footage available from frontline
militants suggests that large sections of the facility
were damaged when militants detonated VBIEDs and
concealed IED devices, according to federal police, in
an effort to slow the advance of government forces.
Further north, Peshmerga units reported intercepting
a number of ISIS attempts to ambush Kurdish security
positions in Bartalah and Khazar east of Mosul, amid
some of the heaviest coalition air strikes across Sinjar
and the north east so far witnessed in 2015.
Central Region
Baghdad and Shia militia spokesmen announce the launch of
fresh offensive in Anbar to
reclaim Ramadi town as coalition
air strikes are called in to resist a
new wave of attacks on Iraq’s westernmost ISF
outposts. Now officially confirmed on State television and through spokesmen for the Shia Popular
Mobilization units, referred to as the Hashid al-Shaabi
in recent broadcasts, ground operations movement
of troops are expected to push towards Ramadi from
the north-east of the district, while Baghdad-based
ISF continue their struggle east of Karma. Previous
massed offensives in Diyala and Salahuddin have
proven the effectiveness of the sheer weight of numbers offered by the Shia paramilitaries, though at this
stage it is difficult to verify precisely how many fighters have now entered Anbar, and where their operations will stop. Pressure to ISIS from the west will
nonetheless represent a welcome development for
tribal fighters on the Syrian border and in disputed
zones such as Baghdadi (south of Haditha) where
militants are now advancing rapidly. On May 22
militants seized the border town of Hussaya, seven
kilometers east of Anbar’s provincial capital, days
later capturing the Waleed border crossing into Syria
and threatening the Trabeel Iraq-Jordan posts. While
ISF positions have now been strengthened around
Haditha and Baghdadi town, additional offensives
over the coming week have the potential for further
ISIS gains in the west, particularly for the region’s
remote and isolated security posts.
Southern Region
No significant change to security
conditions across the south were
identified this week, with tribal
conflict, popular unrest and
organized crime in Basra governorate remaining the primary drivers of local
instability. In a positive development, no further
instances of kidnappings or small arms fire (SAF)
around the West Qurna field have been reported,
though as before this situation has the potential
to change due to the inherently unstable nature of
tribal ceasefires in and around Basra. Instead, the
primary development around Qurna and Midaina
districts were a series of demonstrations by local
workers (by far the most common source of protest across all southern governorates) including one
gathering on May 24 which saw over 200 security
guards demonstrate outside the West Qurna 2 field,
demanding a continuation of their employment. As
is commonplace, the protest was disbanded after
a number of hours without injury or incident. For
organizations operating between the oilfields and
Basra city, it is important to stress that recent trends
identified in the Iraq security update, namely the use
of IEDs against residential property and shootings of
local gang or tribal enemies remain commonplace
and while almost never targeting foreign workers
directly, may pose an underlying security risk when
proper precautions are not followed.
Key Security Events
May 19 - 25, 2015
Erbil, May 24:
Fighters of the Kurdistan Workers Party
(PKK) and Kurdistan Democratic Party of
Iran (KDPI) clashed in in the border area of
Kelashin, resulting in the death of two KDPI
personnel.
DAHUK
Salahuddin, May 22:
ISF and PMU unit reserves reached blockaded areas of
the Baiji refinery complex, triggering a series of clashes
and VBIED strikes, including against critical infrastructure
by Islamic state militants.
Dahuk
Rabia
Sinjar Tal Afar
Mosul
Erbil
ERBIL
NINEVEHBadkdida
Sulaymaniyah
Kirkuk
SULAIMANIYA
Hawija
KIRKUK
Baiji
Anbar, May 22:
ISIS militants capture the tribal –protected pro government town of Hussayba after Sunni militiamen were
forced to withdraw due to low ammunition supplies. The
town is currently contested in tribal counter-offensives.
Tikrit
Diyala, May 24:
ISF intercepted two VBIEDs after a third
detonated in Juba 6 kilometers north east
of Baquba. No group immediately claimed
responsibility for the attack, though it is
likely that local cells active in the previous
car bomb attacks on May 07 and 08 in Balad
Ruz were involved.
Tuz Khurma
Sulaiman Beg
SALAHUDDIN Jalawla
Al Qairm
Samarra
Haditha
Khalis
Muqdadiyah
DIYALA
Baqubah
Hit
Taji
Ramadi
Rutba
Khanaqin
Sadia
Baghdad
BAGHDAD
Fallujah
Abu Ghraib
ANBAR
Anbar, May 25:
Spokesmen for the Popular Defense Forces announced
the start of the preliminary operations to liberate Anbar
and northern Salahuddin, beginning initial bombardment of militant targets in the early evening.
Hillah
KARBALA
Karbala BABIL
Al Amarah
Najaf Ad
QADISIYA
Diwaniyah
NAJAF
LEGEND
Kut
WASIT
MAYSAN
Nasiriyah
DHI QAR
Basra
KRG Territory
ISIS Held City
Kurdish Held City
Disputed City
ISF Held City
Peshmerga
Controlled Areas
Basra, May 19:
MUTHANNA
A local cleric was kidnapped and murdered in the
Hartah area of Basra governorate, in an attack likely
to have been triggered by tribal disputes with the
Shahmani tribe.
BASRA
News Summary
May 19 - 25, 2015
Politics and Security
• PM Abadi Promises to Liberate Ramadi ‘In Days’ –
Rudaw. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi claimed in an
interview on Sunday with the BBC that the provincial capital city of Ramadi can be recaptured from the Islamic State
“in days.” The prime minister also criticized remarks by US
Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter who gave a scathing
assessment of the Iraqi security forces battle against ISIS in
Anbar province. Carter accused Iraqi troops of abandoning Ramadi despite greatly out-numbering the jihadists.
Carter told CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday that the
Iraqi forces lack the will to fight the militias. Abadi said
Carter’s claim “shocked” him. He acknowledged that
Carter is supporting Iraq but said the top US defense official had “received wrong information.” Full Article
Defense Secretary
Opens Possibility to
Strategy Shift on Iraq
• Joe Biden Calls Iraqi PM to Calm Outcry Over Carter
Remarks on Fight Against ISIS – Guardian. Vice-President Joe Biden spoke to the Iraqi prime minister, Haider
al-Abadi, on Monday to reassure him of US support, a day
after controversial remarks by the defense secretary, Ash
Carter, sparked a war of words over the recent military
successes of Islamic State. Carter told CNN on Saturday Iraqi
forces had shown “no will to fight” ISIS and had fled in
Ramadi despite outnumbering the militants. ISIS also captured Palmyra, in Syria, last week. A spokesman for Abadi
subsequently told the Associated Press Carter had been
given “incorrect information”, and said: “We should not
judge the whole army based on one incident.” Full Article
• Joint PUK-KDP Delegation to Visit Site of Border
Clash– Rudaw. A delegation comprised of members
of the two ruling parties of the Kurdistan region will
reportedly visit the site of a border clash between rival
Kurdish parties in the remote Qandil Mountains. A
source from the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) forces
in Qandil mount told Rudaw on condition of anonymity that members of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
(PUK) and Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI)
are expected to meet the two parties involved in the dispute, but no time for the meeting was provided. “They
will meet the KDPI first and then they will also visit PKK
officials to work out the problems.” Full Article
Defense Secretary Ash Carter held open the possibility of a strategy shift by the White House on Iraq,
a few days after recent setbacks in Iraq and Syria
revived sharp criticism of the Obama administration’s approach in combating extremist groups there.
Islamic State forces last week captured the key Iraqi
city of Ramadi and also expanded their reach in Syria.
Critics and even allies of the administration took to
Sunday television talk shows to call for a strategy
change by the administration to stem the advance of
Islamic State forces.
The calls included more aggressively arming Sunni
tribes and Peshmerga forces who oppose Islamic
State, also known as ISIL and ISIS. “If there comes a
time when we have to change the kinds of support
we give we will make that recommendation,” Carter
said in an interview with CNN that aired Sunday.
House Armed Services Chairman Mac Thornberry
(R., Texas) said on ABC’s “This Week” that the battle
in Ramadi was among the many reasons why he
doubted the Obama administration’s claim that US
efforts have succeeded in degrading the strength of
ISIS.
Source: WSJ. Full Article
News Summary
May 19 - 25, 2015
Economics and Business
• Crude Oil Advances Amid Lower US Supply,
Middle East Violence – Bloomberg. Crude oil rose
amid signs a US glut is easing and on concern that
violence in the Middle East will worsen. US crude inventories have fallen for three straight weeks after rising
to a record last month, Energy Department data show.
Violence flared in OPEC’s two biggest members Iraq
and Saudi Arabia, raising tensions ahead of the producer group’s meeting on June 5 in Vienna. “The worst
of the inventory build in North America may be over,”
Bart Malek, an analyst at TD Securities in Toronto, said
by phone. “That in combo with expectations that the
US economy may do OK is helping to keep crude up a
little bit.” Brent crude for July settlement rose 15 cents
to close at $65.52 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange,
after gaining as much as 1.3 percent to $66.22. Full
Article
KRG Oil Shipment for April
Meets Baghdad Quota
The Kurdistan Ministry of Natural Resources released
monthly oil delivery figures on Saturday, reporting a
total for April that would meet the amount agreed
upon by the regional government to deliver to Baghdad. According to the release, the Kurdistan Regional
Government (KRG)’s oil shipment for April met the
required 550,000 barrels per day (bpd) that was stipulated in a Baghdad-Erbil oil budget agreement that
was established in December.
• Islamic State torches Iraq’s largest oil refinery at
Beiji – UN. Fighters from ISIS – also known as Islamic State
(IS) – have torched part of Iraq’s largest oil refinery at Beiji,
some 200 kilometers from Baghdad, apparently in a bid to
keep back the Iraqi army and Shia militants. Billowing clouds
of black smoke have been seen high above the refinery,
captured along with the city of Beiji during the lightning
advances made by IS last June. Iraqi army and Shia militia
– known as Popular Mobilization Forces or PMF – are now
within 2 kilometers of the facility. Colonel Maan Al-Sa’eedi,
commander of the second federal police brigade, told Al
Jazeera: “ISIS has rigged Beiji with booby trapped trenches,
sand barracks and road side bombs. We are hoping that our
forces will overcome these obstacles, the enemy is desperate
and lost manpower and firepower and therefore is trying
different methods to halt our advance.” Full Article
Key Upcoming Dates
June 18 - 19 Beginning of Ramadan
July 14 Republic Day
Based on the agreement for 2015, the federal government is required to send the KRG a 17 percent
share of the national budget in return for the oil from
the Kurdistan region. Baghdad cut budget payments
to the KRG in January 2014 in a punitive response to
Erbil’s bids to export oil independently.
Iraqi Oil Minister Abdul Mahdi arrived in Erbil last
week and met Kurdish government officials, including President Masoud Barzani, in an effort to salvage
the budget deal.
Baghdad has accused the KRG of shortages in the
oil shipments. KRG Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani
announced last week, however, that Erbil has honored the deal.
Source: Rudaw. Full Article
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