robots and robotics

 January 6, 2015
ROBOTS AND
ROBOTICS
• A new industrial revolution may be triggered by jobs done by robots. • Advances in smartphone technology and programs lead advances in robots and robotics. • Open source robots can be built to do whatever the creator wishes them to do. • Surgical robotics could grow to $18 billion market by 2018. • Exoskeletons help workers use hydraulics to lift and load heavier packages as well as help many paralyzed people walk again. Deborah Weinswig
Executive Director – Head of Global Retail & Technology
Fung Business Intelligence Centre
deborahweinswig@fung1937.com
US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CHN: 86.186.1420.3016
DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. Bob Kelly
Guest Writer
1
January 6, 2015
THE ROBOTS ARE COMING. NAH. THE ROBOTS ARE HERE! Like it or not, robots are part of your life – and will play an increasingly larger role in the years to come. $840
MILLION
A record 14,232 robots, valued at $840 million, were ordered from North American robotics companies in the first half of 2015. Whether it is in the medical field, in industry and commerce, in retail, in personal consumer habits or in the defense of our country, automation, robotics and robots have played a role in years past and will plan an even larger role in the future. Who knows (as many fear) if a robot may even be doing your job? A record 14,232 robots, valued at $840 million, were ordered from North American robotics companies in the first half of 2015, an increase of one percent in units and seven percent in revenue compared with the same period of 2014. Companies continue to recognize robots can help them improve productivity, the quality of their products and flexibility in production. During the first half of 2015, sales of robots in semiconductors (+30%), automotive components (+23%) and live sciences (+8%) made strong gains over the first half of last year. However, orders to automotive companies fell 18% from the same period last year. The Robotic Industries Association estimates there are some 232,000 robots now in use in U.S. factories, placing the US second only to Japan in robot use. For companies not using robots or having experience in how robotics can help their business, the challenge of determining feasibility of using robotics can be daunting. There are many reasons companies hesitate. Perhaps it’s the perceived cost issue, or safety concerns. Some may not have staff with programming capabilities. For those companies, specialty consultants solve challenges faced by clients and turn their fears into understanding how to use the robotic technology to their advantage. These “integrators” are the key to success for companies, helping them support and service their robotic equipment. The integrator is the guide – from choosing the proper robot for the job and then working with the company all the way through post-­‐sale service and training. Many companies don’t have a need for robotics or for automated assembly and packaging. Some may wish to dress up their office with a touch of the latest technology and have a robot meet customers at the door, bring coffee to meetings and accompany and guide guests to meeting rooms. Avoiding the initial large investment might be solved by a new rental robot from SoftBank Robotics. Pepper for Biz will have a variety of applications allowing it to handle office reception tasks, among others. It will rent for about $445 (US) monthly from its Japanese creators. One of the biggest fears workers face in the age of robotics is the loss of their jobs. Technological advances are leading to more and more workers being replaced by automated machines. One Australian study predicts that almost 40% of Australian jobs – some five million – have a “moderate to high” likelihood of being erased over the next 10 to 15 years. Researchers liken the change to a new industrial revolution where jobs thought to have “low levels of social interaction, low levels of creativity or low levels of mobility and dexterity” would be the first to be replaced. Findings from focus groups have shown that although there is a high level of awareness that a shift is coming and certain job families are under immense threat in DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 2
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the coming years, there is a very low level of current preparedness or willingness to take action today to prepare for the coming changes. The robotics industry represents a profound shift in modern technology – mixing achievements in artificial intelligence (AI), natural language processing (NLP) and software with sensors and other parts. The cost of many of the parts has been driven down by advances in smartphones and the availability of those programs and technological advances. The costs will continue to fall, encouraging more research and development. The robotics industry represents a profound shift in modern technology – mixing achievements in artificial intelligence (AI), natural language processing (NLP) and software with sensors and other parts. The fact is that although we may be on the “edge of the wedge” right now, the robots are coming and each day seems to bring an announcement of another step closer to that time. So what are some of the most recent applications of robotics and robots? SOCIAL AND CONSUMER ROBOTS First came Pepper from Aldebearan and SoftBank, the social robot that sold out its initial production offering of 1,000 with a $1,600 price tag in ONE MINUTE. Next in line is Intel’s Jimmy, to begin availability next month (September.) Jimmy is a 3D-­‐printed robot capable of walking, talking, moving his arms, dancing and even tweeting, and it's the key to Intel's vision of the future of robotics. Starting later this year, the company will make an open source robot kit with 3D-­‐printed parts available to consumers for $1,600, with a research version for $16,000. The former will run on Intel Edison, the company's computer-­‐on-­‐a-­‐chip, while the latter will be powered by a Core i5 processor. How is the kit set up? The hardware designs will be available online for anyone to build the basic parts using a 3D printer, but the kit itself will contain all of the other parts which you can't print: The motor, batteries, processor and wires are the primary items you'll need to get started. DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 3
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Because the robot is open source, the door is open to download whatever you want use to customize your new creation. It also allows developers to build apps for the same purpose. The bottom line is that your Jimmy can be personalized to do what you want him to do. It will be possible for Jimmy to get a drink for you, sing along, translate, etc. Then comes Jibo, a non-­‐humanoid robot that developer Cynthia Breaseal says will act more like a personal assistant than a moving, fetching robot. Jibo sits on a counter and features two high –resolution cameras to recognize and track faces, capture photos and enable immersive video calling. Microphones functioning all 360 degrees and natural language processing let you talk to Jibo from anywhere in the room. Designed to make everyday life easier, Jibo makes tasks easier, provides hands-­‐free reminders and messages. Also working from an open platform, Jibo is envisioned as a robot that can provide parents with a high quality partner in education, provide a life coach for people with chronic health issues and provide a watchful companion for the elderly that behaves like a friend and not a surveillance system or monitor. Jibo will be available via pre-­‐order ($500) with “Holiday 2015” delivery. $6.5
BILLION
In 2012 the market size was $1.2 billion and is expected to continue to grow to $6.5 billion in 2016. The market for robots to assist consumers in various parts of their lives continues to grow. In 2012 the market size was $1.2 billion and is expected to continue to grow to $6.5 billion in 2016. Manufacturers and developers are still battling hesitancy from consumers to adopt “robotic” technology and have learned that consumers don’t want gadgets – but rather something that shows return on investment, has true lifetime value and actually facilitates life tasks rather than creating a different routine or lifestyle to implement the robot. One intriguing robot under development is Budgee, a rolling carrying basket that can hold up to 50 pounds of luggage, books, groceries or other belongings. Users wear a small transmitter and Budgee follows at a constant range wherever its owner goes. It is equipped with bump sensors to bring it to a stop when it hits an object. Users can also control Budgee using a smartphone or tablet. The final design is being determined by Five Elements. Japan’s AIST has developed an interactive therapeutic robot named Paro for treatment of elderly patients. It resembles a baby seal and interacts by DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 4
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moving its head and legs, making sounds and showing learned behaviors. Paro can recognize the direction of voice and words such as its name, greeting and praise via audio sensors. The interactive seal has been used by nursing facilities in Japan, Germany and the Netherlands for treatment of Alzheimer’s and dementia and has recently been cleared as a Class 2 medical device in the U.S. It retails for $6,000. Japan’s AIST has developed an interactive therapeutic robot named Paro for treatment of elderly patients. It resembles a baby seal and interacts by moving its head and legs, making sounds and showing learned behaviors. If you are on the cutting edge of robots and technology, it’s possible you have one or more of these robots in your home already: • Looj –Created by iRobot, this tool does the most tedious of jobs – cleaning the gutters of your home. It is operated by using a remote control. • ConnectR – iRobot has another device that allows you to interact with family members while you are away. ConnectR features a speakerphone and a camera that allows communication with users offsite. Remote users can manipulate the camera and steer the robot through their computers. • LG V-­‐R4000 – LG’s robot vacuum cleaner battles iRobot's Roomba and offers four different cleaning options. • Robomow – Friendly Robotics has four different models of rechargeable battery-­‐powered automatic lawn mowers. The mowers are equipped with anti-­‐theft systems. • Agent 007 – The robot is equipped with a security camera and announces “POLICE! FREEZE! if an intruder opens a window. It is offered by MobileRobots Inc. and the company uses the same technology for its Jeeves and BrewskiBot models which can shuttle drinks to party guests. • Nanda Clocky – If your alarm clock is failing to get you out of bed, you might look into Nanda Cocky, a clock that gives users one chance to snooze before it drives away, forcing the user to get up and find it to turn off the alarm. DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 5
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• Dressman – The German conglomerate Siemens introduced a robot designed to iron shirts using hot air. The device didn’t make it to the U.S., but those in America with wrinkled shirts hope a similar product will become available. • Litter-­‐Robot – If you own a cat, you want this. Litter-­‐Bot sifts through kitty litter, removing clumps automatically and storing them in a bag. There are many others too numerous to mention in development stages and some being given test trials among focus groups to determine how to market to the correct segment of the consumer world. Price is always an issue, but as consumers find the right robot to help make their life a little simpler or easier, the market will continue to grow for robots and robotics. THE EVER-­‐CHANGING FACE OF MEDICINE Hardly a week goes by without the announcement of the newest innovation in medical devices and creative solutions which will seem miraculous to some – and trigger another generation of devices that will make the current ones look like Model As in the not too distant future. $18
BILLION
Although only a $4 billion market today, surgical robotics is expected to grow at an annual rate of 12% for the foreseeable future, reaching an expected $18 billion by 2018. From bladder reconstruction to open heart operations, robots are now giving doctors more precision, dexterity and visualization than ever before. This superior performance via robotic procedures -­‐-­‐ resulting in reduced blood loss, lower post-­‐operational pain and shorter hospital stays. Because of the return on investment (ROI) hospitals are pouring billions into these systems. Although only a $4 billion market today, surgical robotics is expected to grow at an annual rate of 12% for the foreseeable future, reaching an expected $18 billion by 2018. Intuitive Surgical is perhaps the largest name in robot-­‐assisted surgery, operating in more than 2,000 hospitals throughout the world. Its da Vinci Surgical Systems records the natural hand movement of physicians at a console station and converts the movements to micro-­‐movements of instruments inside patients’ bodies. The system allows for range of motion, natural control and fine tissue manipulation via high-­‐definition and three-­‐
dimensional imaging during surgery. The system is so precise it allows surgeons to literally peel the skin off a grape. DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 6
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The da Vinci system is at work in more than 2,600 hospitals and is used to perform more than 500,000 minimally invasive procedures annually from lung cancer tumor removal to prostate surgery to hysterectomy and other procedures. 70%
Prior to 1990, vascular disease was treated only with open surgical procedures, but today, approximately 70 percent of vascular procedures are performed using catheters inserted through small incisions. Mazor Robotics specializes in spine surgery and its Renaissance Guidance System was used in the first successful lumbar spine fusion surgery at the Department of Neurosurgery at the University of California. Although its systems are very expensive, its technology has been used in tens of thousands of implants throughout the U.S. and Europe. It is the only provider of robotic technology for spine surgery, and recently received a purchase order from the Oncology Research Center in Russia. Prior to 1990, vascular disease was treated only with open surgical procedures, but today, approximately 70 percent of vascular procedures are performed using catheters inserted through small incisions. Hansen Medical is the leader in robotics that allow for precision in positioning and control of catheter-­‐based technologies. The company produces Sensei Robotic Catheter Systems including Artisan Control Catheters and Sensei X Robotic Catheter Systems. Hansen’s newest product is the Magellan System that reduces radiation exposure for physicians by allowing them to operate in an outside room, away from the radiation source. It increases efficiency during intra-­‐vascular procedures, cutting operations times by 67%. The CyberKnife Robotic Radiosurgery System, designed and manufactured by Accuray Inc., is a non-­‐invasive alternative to surgery for the treatment of cancerous and non-­‐cancerous tumors. The CyberKnife can target tumors in any area of the body, including the lungs, spine, liver, prostate and brain. The first robotic system on the market to treat tumors non-­‐invasively, the system is really a misnomer. There is no cutting involved and CyberKnife is able to minimize damage to unaffected areas by delivering beams of radiation from multiple angles to concentrate on a single point. Alone, the DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 7
January 6, 2015
beams are not powerful, but when they cross at a center point, radiation levels are high enough to destroy tumors. The CyberKnife system is also constantly able to track tumors that move during surgery and can respond in real time. This is particularly useful in respiratory and cardiovascular systems because the lungs and the heart are in constant motion. Along with accuracy and safety, the CyberKnife has a significant impact on hospital visits. Use of the CyberKnife takes only one to five visits, while conventional radiotherapy can take up to 45 treatments. A development of CyberKnife technology is the company’s TomoTherapy system, which is able to break radiation beams into a collection of even smaller beams, allowing for more precise targeting of tumors. These technologies are being used in European and Asian markets with centers in Germany, France and Japan, in addition to the U.S. Medrobotics Corporation has received FDA clearance to market its Flex Robotic System in the U.S. The minimally invasive system enables surgical access and visualization in hard to reach locations via high definition vision system and operate in hard to access areas of the oropharynx, hypopharynx and larynx. The latest in robotics-­‐assisted technology for partial knee replacement procedures is the Navio system marketed by Blue Belt Technologies. The Navio System uses patented technology to provide precise control to surgeons via an intelligent, hand-­‐held, computer-­‐assisted bone-­‐cutting tool. It provides robotic assistance to the surgeon while performing bone-­‐shaping tasks through minimally invasive incisions. At some orthopedic centers, up to 80% of all joint replacements, both full and partial, are being done on an outpatient basis, and the Navio System is the latest “assistant” to provide advanced technology through minimally invasive procedures. Virtual Incision Company has just received $11.2 million of equity funding to continue developing robotically assisted surgical devices. The funding will be used for a feasibility study of the use of the company’s miniature robotically assisted surgical technology for colon resection. The procedure is used to treat patients with lower gastrointestinal diseases such diverticulitis, Crohn’s disease, inflammatory bowel disease and coloncancer. DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 8
January 6, 2015
Assisting surgeons is merely one area of progress for robots and robotics. In other medical areas, some innovations are providing what many consider miraculous assistance for people to live fuller lives. Assisting surgeons is merely one area of progress for robots and robotics. In other medical areas, some innovations are providing what many consider miraculous assistance for people to live fuller lives. ReWalk is a robotic exoskeleton that allows many paralyzed people to walk again. Designed to help those who are paralyzed from the waist down, the battery-­‐operated system features a light, wearable exoskeleton with motors at the hip and knee joints. The ReWalker controls movement using subtle changes in his/her center of gravity. A forward tilt of the upper body is sensed by the system, which initiates the first step. Repeated body shifting generates a sequence of steps which mimics a functional natural gait of the legs. The new ReWalk Personal 6.0 System is designed for all day use at home and in the community. It is the most customizable exoskeleton and is configured for each user. It enables the wearer, through a wristwatch-­‐like controller, to switch between sit, stand, walk and stair climb and descend modes. The unit is priced at about $70,000. Another exoskeleton manufacturer has created the Ekso, a wearable bionic suit which enables individuals with any amount of lower extremity weakness to stand up and walk over ground with a natural, full weight DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 9
January 6, 2015
bearing gait. Walking is achieved by the user’s weight shifts to activate sensors in the device which initiate steps. Battery-­‐powered motors drive the legs, replacing deficient neuromuscular function. It provides a means for people with as much as complete paralysis, and minimal forearm strength, to stand and walk. It is also intended to help victims with neurological conditions such as stroke, spinal cord injury or disease, traumatic brain injury and more. The system is currently being sold to rehabilitation centers and individuals for $140,000. Second Sight uses visual images from miniature cameras usually used in cell phones but in this case mounted to special eyeglasses to help people see again. The information received from the camera is converted into electrical impulses transmitted wirelessly to electrodes attached to the eye’s retina, stimulating the retina’s remaining cells to send information to the brain. This system is showing positive results for many suffering from Macular Degeneration and retinitis pigmentosa. Plans are available on the internet for users to make prosthetic hands on 3-­‐
D printers, while one of the most advanced hands in the field of robotic prosthetics is available from RSL Steeper. The Bebionic 3 is a multi-­‐
articulating myoelectric hand featuring 14 different grip patterns and hand positions, including the unique mouse grip for using a computer mouse; trigger grip for using spray bottles; and precision grip for securely handling small items. 14
The Bebionic 3 is a multi-­‐
articulating myoelectric hand featuring 14 different grip patterns and hand positions, including the unique mouse grip for using a computer mouse. Powerful microprocessors continuously monitor the position of each finger, providing precise and reliable control over hand movements. The thumb, which has selectable thumb positions, has been changed to provide increased strength. Individual motors in each finger are positioned to optimize weight distribution and make the hand feel lighter and more comfortable. Able to carry up to 99 pounds, the Bebionic 3 has almost doubled its grip strength over earlier versions of the hand. A selectable auto-­‐grip feature also senses when a gripped item is slipping and automatically tightens the grip for a secure and safe hold. DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 10
January 6, 2015
ARE ROBOTS READY FOR RETAIL? OR IS THE QUESTION WHETHER RETAIL IS READY FOR ROBOTS? There are many who believe that retail workers are among the most at-­‐risk for being replaced by robots. So, is the automated store only a few years away? Advances in artificial intelligence has led to Hointer, a Seattle-­‐based company, to develop robots that bring items to and from fitting rooms – but it’s hard to think that robots would provide the same kind of customer service that the likes of Nordstrom and Neiman Marcus have built their reputations on. Still, in this age of instant information, customers want to know where to find items in the stores without an employee vaguely pointing in a direction and saying, “Well, it’s over there somewhere on Aisle 12 or 14, I think.” Home Depot’s cell phone app tells the user what aisle the items sought is located on, but Lowe’s is going one step further in trial stores. OSHbot incorporates the ability to communicate with customers to know what they need and then navigate through the store to the location. Although there are only two OSHbots in existence, a successful trial in the California store could lead to many more. The robot understands and speaks both English and Spanish, can recognize any item in the store’s inventory and knows what the store has in stock on a second-­‐to-­‐second basis. The field testing for the robots includes whether the OSHbot voices should be male or female, electronic or human, whether they should have a face or not and how fast they should move through the store. Another tool consumers are beginning to find at Do-­‐It-­‐Yourself big box stores is a Findbox, a fixture mounted screen with a camera and image recognition software. Shoppers put their item on a platform under the camera and the system does and image search for the item on the platform. It then displays a photo, name and product ID of the item if it is available in DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 11
January 6, 2015
the store. The system can also provide a shelf tag that can flash a light on the shelf to indicate where the hardware item is located in the aisle. Ideally, this system benefits the retailer and the shopper. It provides a higher level of service to the shopper with no change in staff and helps the customer find what he needs quickly in the store. Carnegie Mellon University researchers are hard at work on AndyVision, a robotic inventory system that takes the form of an autonomous robot that roams a store and scans the aisles and shelves to perform a thorough inventory and can tell a store staff when an item is running low in stock or if merchandise is out of place. Malls in Abu Dhabi use robots as service ambassadors. The humanoid robots built by Barcelona-­‐based PAL Products have a touch screen built into their chests, cameras in their heads to allow them to recognize users and wheels to allow them to drive around. Instead of pointing to a spot or printing a map, the robots lead you to your destination. Malls in Abu Dhabi use robots as service ambassadors. The humanoid robots built by Barcelona-­‐based PAL Products have a touch screen built into their chests. The Aloft hotel across the street from Apple’s headquarters in Cupertino is experimenting with robotic bellhops. The robots, deliver basic items from the front desk to your room, finding their way by themselves via elevators and hallways. When they arrive at your door with your order, they call your DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 12
January 6, 2015
room phone to announce their arrival. Open the lid, take your order and give them a friendly thanks and they are on their way back to the front desk. Best thing? No tipping! Purchasing clothing online can be a convenient thing, but the fit is always a factor. Sizes can vary widely and retailers are finding customers buy the same item in two or more sizes – and then return the ones that don’t fit to their liking. It’s convenient for the shopper, but is an overhead cost for the retailer. An Estonian company named Fits.me has developed a robot which can change its shape to fit clothing and then provide measurements across thousands of points for each garment. When a customer enters their measurements and selects a garment, it shows how the item would fit their body. It allows online shoppers to have a better idea of how clothing will look and fit on their body, hopefully reducing the number of returns. In Japan, a hotel recently opened with robots in reception areas helping guests register. In the rooms, a robot shaped like a ping tulip lamp called Tuly answers simple time, date and weather questions and turns room lights on and off via voice commands. In China, robots are used to deliver food to tables in restaurants, rather than serving staff. Robot chefs are being developed to prepare meals in homes with glorified crockpot finesse. A robot shaped like a ping tulip lamp called Tuly answers simple time, date and weather questions and turns room lights on and off via voice commands While the use of robots in the front of retail stores is still under development, they are already performing the more menial, behind-­‐the-­‐
scenes roles such as pickers and packers in retail distribution centers. There’s no question there is a role for robots and robotics in retail, but it may be some time before that role is truly defined. One of the pressing issues is also the cost. If the robots were coming from a manufacturing source instead of prototype shops, there would be an enormous price reduction. But in order for products to be built on that scale, there must be awareness and familiarity, as well as having a robot that truly accomplishes what it is needed for. Another of the issues is that the rate of technological change and the range of capabilities is so short that what is cutting edge – or beyond – today, becomes outdated and antiquated in just a few years. Retailers have to DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 13
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weigh the “out of style” and “up to date” by determining if investment dollars are recovered before the payback on investment is complete, Retail has always been about getting inventory from its place of manufacture to customers. The many steps along the way – from packing, transporting, unpacking and merchandising the product – are using automation and robotics to their current limits, in many cases. Changes and new opportunities for robotics will take place in the coming years – probably before robots become commonplace in the sales floor. ROBOTS IN INDUSTRY 66,000
The Fuselage A utomated Upright Build process that allows fuselage sections to be built using automated, guided robots that will fasten the panels of the fuselage together, drilling and filling the more than 60,000 fasteners that have been installed by hand. For decades, robots have been a part of the manufacturing world. Expensive, big, unable to move but able to perform highly repetitive tasks involving heavy objects, the robots did what they were designed to do – lower the cost of manufacturing and increase productivity. While the robots have performed fearlessly and flawlessly, the world has begun to change. Technology changes almost daily and the consumer appetite is whetted by varying promotional campaigns and the consumer desire for customization—whether it is a cell phone or a luxury car. Fortunately, advances in robotics technology have allowed the development of a new breed of robot that provides entirely different ways to accomplish the physical tasks that have been outside the reach of traditional robots. These collaborative robots are already being used by manufacturers in electronics, industrial equipment and white goods, as well as in sheet metal fabrication, home furnishings and plastics. For years, Boeing has been secretly working on a way to change the building of the fuselage on its 777 planes. That formerly secret process is now in its final phase of testing and production. Working with KUKA Robotics, the two companies have developed the Fuselage Automated Upright Build process that allows fuselage sections to be built using automated, guided robots that will fasten the panels of the fuselage together, drilling and filling the more than 60,000 fasteners that have been installed by hand. The FAUB system does more than just make every rivet perfect. The drilling and filling makes it an ideal job for an automated solution and is a safer one for employees. More than half of the injuries on the 777 program have occurred during the phase of production that is being automated. The automated system is also expected to reduce build times and improve the DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 14
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quality of the build process. When all of the issues are worked out, the technology is expected to be implemented in the next few years and will be used on the 777 and the 777X. 60
In Australia, riding lawn mower manufacturer Cox Industries employed 160 people a decade ago. The number is now 60, as the manufacturer has turned to robotic welding machinery to stay in the fight for consumers against importers like John Deere, Husqvarna and MTD. In Australia, riding lawn mower manufacturer Cox Industries employed 160 people a decade ago. The number is now 60, as the manufacturer has turned to robotic welding machinery to stay in the fight for consumers against importers like John Deere, Husqvarna and MTD. Fighting for survival, the company imported three robotic welders at a cost of $150,000 each. It meant that the company needed only one person for every nine before, and the investment paid for itself quickly. According to co-­‐owner Ken McColl, the Australian economy can’t afford to have businesses like his to disappear. “We have 400 separate suppliers, almost all of them local small businesses. From the makers of a specialist washer, to the electricians and plumbers and maintenance people here at the factory to our bank, insurers, and the sandwich shop around the corner – all are part of our business. People need to think about that when they are comparing a Cox mower to an import.” One of the world’s largest freight and package moving and delivery services is experimenting with a variety of robotic and technological ways to load, unload, track and trace packages within its system. High marks have resulted in some – and others are still in the developmental stage. Technological breakthroughs on trucks have resulted in automatic braking and anti-­‐collision and turnover systems installed fleet-­‐wide. Great gains have been made in convoy braking systems and location-­‐monitoring technology. One particular system is Sensaware, available to the consumer for either sale or rent, which is a device that goes inside a package. It senses light, temperature and through a GPS sensor, provides online, live tracking. It can also be monitored and if it goes outside a certain area, an alarm goes off. Presently, the company is using automated scanning systems to scan all six sides of a parcel, allowing it to be traced almost instantly. The greatest way robotics and robots could assist the company is two-­‐fold, and early DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 15
January 6, 2015
experimentation with both has led to short-­‐lived trials and back-­‐to-­‐the drawing board results. The greatest asset in time and money saved would be robotic unloading and loading of trailer trucks. The use of robots of this mind-­‐numbing task would save untold hours – but after -­‐two weeks the robot trial was scrapped until a better design could be tested. The robotic arm, picking up and moving packages by suction pickup, left much to be desired. In Australia, riding lawn mower manufacturer Cox Industries employed 160 people a decade ago. The number is now 60, as the manufacturer has turned to robotic welding machinery to stay in the fight for consumers against importers like John Deere, Husqvarna and MTD. The second use of robots that would be of great use would be moving non-­‐
conveyable packages from one place to another within the distribution hub. Early efforts at this were unsuccessful as well. One area showing promise is the use of exoskeletons. Workers are outfitted in an exoskeleton system and with the use of some hydraulic forces, are able to pick up, scan and move heavier packages than they would normally be able to lift. The package moving and delivery company has not done much experimentation with drones yet – but one company has found a highly unique use of the manually-­‐operated flying machines. One of the most dangerous jobs on an oil rig is the inspection of wear and tear on the girders that form the spider-­‐like structures. In the past, roughnecks dangled from cables, in high winds if necessary, to inspect and log problems like cracks and physical damage from waves. Metal structures in salt water rust a lot and rigs continuously need to be repaired and refurbished. Sky Futures, headquartered in London, has built a drone inspection business specializing in the oil and gas industry. Inspections involve sending one drone operator and an engineer out to a rig to fly a small drone around the platform, building a 3D model of the structure. In five days, the drone can do the work of what might take eight weeks with human inspectors. Using high definition and thermal cameras, the drone collects data which is then analyzed and flagged as red, amber or green, depending on the needs to be addressed. Using lasers, drones can also track cracks and corrosion and map how they evolve over time. DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 16
January 6, 2015
If robots can help solve issues in the oilfields of the North Sea and the Gulf of Mexico and help solve the back-­‐breaking issues of hand-­‐riveting aircraft fuselages, why can’t sewing machines be designed to cut and sew apparel without the touch of human hands? Now there’s a challenge. Such a computer-­‐controlled sewing machine must be able to precisely move fabric under the needle “stitch by stitch” and carefully track threads – a job normally done with human hands and eyesight. If it could be done, automated factories could produce garments with no direct labor. The Pentagon has given a $1.2 million grant to a Georgia Tech spinoff company, Softwear Automation to develop the “no-­‐hands” system it could then incorporate into the manufacture of uniforms for the U.S. Armed Forces. $1.2
MILLION
If successful, the SAM-­‐1000 sewing machine could also change the way clothing is made and where it is made. The sewing machine is designed to cut fabric, assemble parts and stitch them into a complete garment. The U.S. currently imports about $100 billion worth of clothes and sewn items each year, so success with the sewing machine project could mean anything from lower costs to returning the manufacturing of clothing to America. The Pentagon has given a $1.2 million grant to a Georgia Tech spinoff company, Softwear Automation to develop the “no-­‐
hands” system it could then incorporate into the manufacture of uniforms for the U.S. Armed Forces. There are plusses and minuses for such an automated system. Initial investment costs will be very high and some manufacturers will be hard-­‐
pressed to afford it. Tens, if not hundreds of thousands of jobs will be lost and what becomes of those workers and their ability to earn any kind of a living. Engineers and staff with necessary IT skills to design and run the machines will be needed. The machines will need to work with all kinds of fibers, materials, yarns and fabrics. And those are just a few of the negatives. From a positive standpoint, it’s possible that manufacturing could be done here in America, reducing shipping costs and reducing the price of the finished garment. Speed to market is faster, with response times for DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 17
January 6, 2015
changing consumer demands accelerated. Output quantity can be more standardized because of less need for human error and less wastage. THE EDGE OF THE ROBOTIC WEDGE Whether or not the completely automatic sewing machine becomes a reality or not, one thing is very clear. An ageing workforce exists and many younger workers currently view manufacturing as a demoralizing job of drudgery and monotony. The demands on automation already outweigh the supply of workers and the need for qualified employees is only going to increase. With a growing skills gap, it is anticipated that more than 3.4 million jobs will be available during the next decade – but there are currently only about 1.1 million qualified workers. A large number of the jobs will not need a four-­‐year degree and personnel from the leading “tech” and engineering colleges like Carnegie Mellon, MIT, Stanford and Cal Tech. Instead, jobs will be for qualified personnel to oversee and understand the computerized robotics in factories and other industries. Those jobs need skills – but not necessarily the ones taught at the prestigious engineering universities. A variety of programs are now underway to create community college degree programs and training to develop the new crop of workers skilled at overseeing robotic machinery and the maintenance of those machines. These two-­‐year degree programs will provide well trained workers for these critical, well-­‐paying jobs. Looking down the robotic road at the future opportunities, providing well-­‐
trained workers for new positions is critical. The road will continue to make turns and have hills and valleys as technology continues to change. Money continues to pour into robotics. Startup companies begin daily and the future is limited only by imagination, technological changes and funding. The global robotics market is anticipated to grow to more than $44.5 billion by the end of this decade – up from the $28.3 billion in 2013. What we are seeing now is merely the “edge of the robotic wedge.” DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 18
January 6, 2015
Deborah Weinswig, CPA Executive Director—Head of Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre New York: 917.655.6790 Hong Kong: 852 6119 1779 China: 86 186 1420 3016 deborahweinswig@fung1937.com Filippo Battaini filippobattaini@fung1937.com Marie Driscoll, CFA mariedriscoll@fung1937.com John Harmon, CFA johnharmon@fung1937.com Aragorn Ho aragornho@fung1937.com John Mercer johnmercer@fung1937.com Shoshana Pollack Shoshanapollack@fung1937.com Kiril Popov kirilpopov@fung1937.com Jing Wang jingwang@fung1937.com Steven Winnick stevenwinnick@fung1937.com HONG KONG: 10th Floor, LiFung Tower 888 Cheung Sha Wan Road, Kowloon Hong Kong Tel: 852 2300 2470 NEW YORK: th
1359 Broadway, 9 Floor New York, NY 10018 Tel: 646 839 7017 LONDON: 242-­‐246 Marylebone Road London, NW1 6JQ United Kingdom Tel: 44 (0)20 7616 8988 FBICGROUP.COM DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 19