Scientific Method - University of Oregon

Scientific Method
Myths
Part I Scientific Method
1.From Myths to Science
Early Concepts of the
Universe
2. Thales and the Scientific
Method
4. Occam's Razor
4. Sightings
Cydonia Aliens on Mars
goddess Nut, who arched her
2. Kinds of Sightings
3. Scientific method
Motion of the Earth
the sky was represented by the
1.Are UFOs Real?
3. What would be convincing
evidence?
4. Examples
In ancient Egypt the dome of
Part 2 Have we been Visited?
back over the earth so that only
her hands and feet touched the
ground. She was the night sky,
and the sun, the god Ra, was
Roswell UFO Crash - 1947
born from her every morning.
Abductions?
5. Crop Circles
Hindu representation of
the Sky
Power of the Scientific Method
Thales of Miletus
He tried to predict eclipses of the Sun
and Moon using periodicities, rather than
the usual explanation that the Sun god was
angry
Thales of Miletus 624- 547: First attempt to provide an explanation to
the patterns that emerged from astronomical observations
Thought that natural phenomena - including the heavens - could be discussed as
processes governed by natural laws, rather than relying on supernatural
explanations.
!Thales Model of the Universe
On May 25, 585 BC, during a war between the
Medes and the Lydians, a solar eclipse
occurred. The darkness was so intense that it
interrupted the hostilities. Surprisingly enough,
the eclipse had been predicted by Thales of
Miletus. He had predicted the date, as well as
shape of the shadow on the earth.
Unfortunately, no written account of Thales'
methods exists. Accounts come to us from
Aristotle.
Sec 1
!In the beginning there was only
water, that the world and all things
were composed of water. “Water”
in this context was some unifying
principle.
!The Earth was a large (flat) disk
floating on an infinite ocean of
water, and that earthquakes
resulted from disturbances in this
ocean that shook and cracked the
Earth.
Thales Model of the Universe
The Scientific
Method
Occam's Razor
The principle of Occam's razor is a cornerstone of
modern scientific thought. Named for William of
Occam (also spelled Ockham), a 14th century
philosopher.
! Observations
! Identifying Patterns &
formulate Hypothesis
Given a choice between two or more viable
explanations for some phenomenon, Occam's razor
cuts away the more complex explanations in favor of
the simplest.
! Prediction
! Testing Hypothesis
(more observations)
! Formulate Theory
The Razor doesn't tell us anything about the truth of a
hypothesis, but rather it tells us which one to test first.
Testing a theory doesn't guarantee that it's
true, no matter how many times you get the
right answer.
But not testing the theory means that there's
no way at all of separating good ideas from
nonsense
Which
Model is
“Correct”?
``Science is what we have learned about not fooling
ourselves.'’
- Richard Feynman
ourselves.'’
Hypothesis
Are UFOs alien spacecraft piloted by extraterrestrial
beings, or are they terrestrial objects that just haven't
been properly identified?
Evidence
the Sun is the center of the
universe and that the Earth had
a double motion around this
center.
The orbit of the moon separated the
imperfect terrestrial realm from the perfect
heavens
Heavenly bodies are perfect spheres and
move on circles
Celestial motion is perfect and caused by
Prime Mover acting from outside sphere of
stars
Thousands of people around the world have
reported occurrences of strange, unidentified flying
craft that hover in the air or land on the ground.
Are these unidentified flying objects -- UFOs, as
they're called -- alien spaceships visiting us from
faraway planets?
Or are they simply high-tech military craft, weather
balloons or other easily explainable sightings?
Kinds of Sightings
1 Close Encounters of the First Kind
any UFO reported to have been within a
maximum of 500 feet or less of the witness.
2 Close Encounters of the Second Kind
a UFO that leaves markings on the ground,
causes burns or paralysis, frightens animals,
or interferes with engines or TV or radio
reception.
3 Close Encounters of the Third Kind
a purported sighting of the occupants of a
UFO.
4 Close Encounters of the Fourth Kind
a human is abducted
5 Close Encounters of the Fifth Kind
contact events produced through the
conscious, voluntary and proactive humaninitiated
Roswell UFO Crash - 1947
Aliens supposedly crashed in Roswell
“Suspicious debris” recovered
•
The stuff in the photo was
pieces of the actual stuff we
found. It was not a staged
photo."-Maj. Jesse Marcel
“Alien bodies”
supposedly
found
http://www.area51central.com/aliens/evidence/AlienAutopsyPhotographs.html
http://www.alienationsam.com/historic_ufo/roswell/roswell.html
Evidence
for flying
saucers
Marked landing sites of UFOs
Evidence Crop Circles
Are they made by humans?
1965 hundreds of witnesses saw a strange
object crash into the woods in Michigan
1980, two U.S. Air Force security patrolmen
saw a glowing metallic object hovering above a
Forest in Suffolk, England ...
1989 and 1990, hundreds of triangular objects
were reported in the skies over Belgium ...
2000, a business owner and several police
officers in Illinois saw a huge, brightly lit object
dart across the sky ...
Are they made by Aliens?
Sightings are hard to
explain after the fact with
incomplete information
based on eyewitness
accounts
http://science.howstuffworks.com/ufo.htm
Pyramids of Egypt
http://www.ufoevidence.org/
Nazca
Lines
The apparent explanation is
that the Egyptians 2500 BC
built this enormous structure.
Could these Pyramids be
beacons for extraterrestrial
beings to find this spaceport.
Are they a natural phenomenon?
Problems
Hypothesis
Man Made?
Or Alien
Assisted….
Evidemce
The image shows that the
layout of the pyramids aligns
with the stars of Orion's belt as
it appeared before 10,450 BC.
Occam's Razor
Given a choice between two or more viable explanations for some
phenomenon, favor the simplest.
Nazca Lines are geoglyphs etched in the surface
of the desert pampa sand about 300 hundred
figures made of straight lines, geometric shapes
and pictures of animals and birds - and their
patterns are only clearly visible from the air.
Built by an
extraterrestrial race
for the future landing
strips for space aliens.
Or The etchings made
over 2,000 years ago by
Indians who cleared the
stony surface, exposing
the whitish soil
underneath.
Or a calendar, a map of
underground water
supplies,
http://www.world-mysteries.com/mpl_1_2.htm
What are Flying
Saucers?
Claims of sightings and journeys
"None strongly substantiated
"Most sightings are explained by optical illusions
"Many sightings turn out to be fraud
"No sign that extraterrestrials want to contact
authorities - like the President
Occam's Razor
"the simplest explanation that satisfies all the evidence is the
best”
Occam's Razor leads to the conclusion that reported UFO's
are not extraterrestrial life
"I think that it is much more likely that the reports of flying
saucers are the results of the known irrational characteristics of
terrestrial intelligence than of the unknown rational efforts of
extra-terrestrial intelligence." — Richard Feynman