BREEDERS` CUP WAGERING GUIDE

Transcription

OFFICIAL WAGERING PARTNER
BREEDERS’ CUP
WAGERING GUIDE
Secret Circle and Martin Garcia win the 2013 Xpressbet Sprint.
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Breeders’ Cup encompasses two days of outstanding championship racing and Xpressbet is pleased
to present this free wagering guide to horseplayers as an aid toward mutuel success. Inside you will
find Analysis, Main Contenders, Value Plays and $100 Wagering Strategies from top handicappers,
writers and broadcasters. Also included are lots of useful Breeders’ Cup Stats & Trends you won’t find
anywhere else and a special Best of the Best page with key plays.
Make sure to return to Xpressbet.com for free daily online Breeders’ Cup Wagering Guide Updates
(beginning Tuesday, Oct. 28) with revised selections based on scratches, post positions, weather, etc.
Included in daily updates will be noted Southern California-based clocker Gary Young’s analysis of
important morning workouts leading up to the main events.
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Best of the Best
Below are the most interesting Breeders’ Cup runners with expert comments.
Mike Battaglia – Turf Sprint / No Nay Never
I’m looking for a bit of a price in the Turf Sprint with
Wes Ward-trained No Nay Never. He is undefeated
in three starts on the grass, including a Group 1 win
in France last year. His comeback race at Keeneland
was better than it looks on paper – Mike Smith had a
lot of horse left at the end.
Jeff Siegel – Juvenile / American Pharoah
This year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile looks to be
exceptional; it’s potentially the strongest renewal of
the race in years. American Pharoah has the homecourt advantage over the superb easterners Carpe
Diem and Daredevil, so I expect him to win.
Caton Bredar – Sprint / Work All Week
While not tops on many BC radar screens, Work
All Week in the Sprint is the horse and moment I’m
most looking forward to. Somewhat overlooked
until now, the Illinois-bred doesn’t know how to lose
on dirt and has the kind of speed – combined with
coolness under pressure – that makes him a force
to be reckoned with.
Bob Neumeier - Classic / Shared Belief
I have been of the opinion that Shared Belief is a
top-class runner and one of the best of the last few
years. I’m hoping and believing that he will win the
Classic in convincing style.
Jennie Rees - Classic / Cigar Street
When Bill Mott gets this enthusiastic about how a
horse is doing, and takes such an aggressive shot
like putting Cigar Street in the Classic, you better
bet. Mott’s enthusiasm was similarly evident in 2011
when he saddled Royal Delta to win the Distaff and
Drosselmeyer to win the Classic.
Dick Jerardi – Classic / California Chrome
I want to see California Chrome draw a post position
far away from the rail in the Classic, a stalking
position with a horse or two in front to his inside,
and blue skies in front of him. Then, I want to see
if the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner can
duplicate his winter and spring form when he
dominated everything he ran against.
CLOCKER GARY YOUNG’S WORKOUT ANALYSIS
Read more workout info in Xpressbet Breeders’ Cup Wagering Guide Updates,
available beginning Tuesday, Oct. 28.
October 17
Midnight Lucky 36:1, 48, 1.12, 1.25 to 7/8 pole, gallop out 1.38:2
Her most serious drill as she prepares to prove she is the best one-turn female in the world while coming
off the bench. After dismantling Declassify last week, she worked solo here and was very good again. The
daughter of two-time Breeder’s Cup winner Midnight Lute is in the right barn to fire off the bench and
appears to be on target.
Goldencents 35:4, 59:2 gallop out 1.12
The beneficiary of making the lead in last year’s Dirt Mile looked a little less smooth than I’ve seen him in
the past. Have always been a fan of this guy, but might take a stand against him depending on how
his last drill goes.
BREEDERS’ CUP WAGERING GUIDE UPDATES
AVAILABLE ONLINE DAILY BEGINNING TUESDAY, OCTOBER 28
EXOTIC WAGERING CHART
Breeders’ Cup exotic wagers usually produce hefty payoffs.
Use this handy Exotic Wagering Chart to plan your attack.
EXACTA BOX: ($1 Wager)
2 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $2
3 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6
4 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
5 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $20
6 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $30
7 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $42
8 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $56
EXACTA WHEEL: ($1 Wager)
One Horse with All
6 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
8 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
TRIFECTA KEY: ($.50 Wager)
1 Horse with 3 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $3
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4/ 2, 3, 4)
1 Horse with 4 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5/ 2, 3, 4, 5)
1 Horse with 5 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $10
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7)
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)
SUPERFECTA BOX: ($.10 Wager)
4 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $2.40
5 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
6 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $36
TRIFECTA BOX: ($.50 Wager)
3 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $3
4 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
5 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $30
6 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60
7 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $105
8 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $168
SUPERFECTA WHEEL: ($.10 Wager)
One Horse with All with All with All
7 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
8 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $21
9 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $33.60
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $50.40
(Example: 1/All/All/All or All/1/All/All or All/All/1/All or All/ All/ All/1)
TRIFECTA WHEEL: ($.50 Wager)
One Horse with All with All
(Example: 1/All/All or All/1/All or All/All/1)
7 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $15
8 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $21
9 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $28
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $36
One Horse with Two Horses with All with All
7 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $4
8 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6
9 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $8.40
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $11.20
(Example: 1/ 2/ All/ All or 2/ 1/ All/ All or 1/ All/ All/ 2 or 2/ All/ All/ 1
or All/ All/ 1/ 2 or All/ All/ 2/ 1)
One Horse with Two Horses with All
(Example: 1/2/All or 2/1/All or 1/All/2 or 2/a
All ll/1 or All/1/2 or All/2/1)
7 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $5
8 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6
9 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $7
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $8
SUPERFECTA KEY: ($.10 Wager)
1 Horse with 3 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $.60
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4)
1 Horse with 4 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $2.40
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5)
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7)
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)
BREEDERS’ CUP WAGERING GUIDE UPDATES
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Race
Y
6
A
D
F
R
I
Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile Turf
$1 Million - Grade 1
Euro-Domination to Continue
by Jeff Siegel HRTV
ANALYSIS: European invaders are a perfect four-for-four in
California and zero-for-two elsewhere since the Juvenile Turf was
added to the slate in 2007, leading us to assume that shippers from
across the pond are inconvenienced neither by the long trip or
the top-of-the-ground conditions that California guarantees. This
year’s contingent hardly represents the best of Europe’s juvenile
class, but they were selected to represent due to their assumed
abilities over firm going. As for the Americans, there simply isn’t
enough established form to know quite what they’re capable of.
Remember, handicapping this race is all about projection and
potential. The raw form will be of some help, but not enough.
MAIN CONTENDERS: COMMEMORATIVE won a smart maiden,
followed by an authoritative score at Newmarket in the Autumn
Stakes. An impressive, powerful chestnut with American-styled
tactical speed, COMMEMORATIVE is a Juddmonte home-bred with
massive upside, more so than Aidan O’Brien’s somewhat exposed
WAR ENVOY, a winner just once in seven starts, but with several
stakes placings in top company. The Americans aren’t without a
chance; the Ramseys’ LUCK OF THE KITTEN has the benefit of a
stakes win over the course and distance, and Godolphin’s IMPERIA
won the Pilgrim in New York in just his second career start.
VALUE PLAYS: COMMEMORATIVE will be a nice price; in fact, in
a full field of largely unclassified juveniles, you’ll get your price no
matter whom you like. World traveler HOOTENANNY surely has
the speed to be dangerous on the front end in his first try over a
route of ground. He owns a win at Royal Ascot and a runner-up in
a French Group 1, so the Quality Road colt has ample credentials.
Then there’s STARTUP NATION, whose victory two runs back in the
With Anticipation Stakes may have been the most impressive on
turf by a two-year-old in North America this year.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $40 Win: COMMEMORATIVE ($40)
• $10 Exacta Box: COMMEMORATIVE, HOOTENANNY and
STARTUP NATION ($60)
Jeff’s
Picks
1. COMMEMORATIVE
2. HOOTENANNY
3. STARTUP NATION
4. LUCK OF THE KITTEN
1 Mile Turf
START
FINISH
Post 2:25 pm Pacific
Wagering Menu
Win, Place, Show,
Exacta, Trifecta,
Superfecta,
Double, Pick 3,
$1.5 Million Pick 4
STATS & TRENDS
Division Debut: 2007
Favorites: Win 14%
In-The-Money 71%
Average Winning Payoffs
$2 Win: $17.46
$1 Exacta: $106.93
$1 Trifecta: $992.59
$1 Superfecta: $9,753.61
2013 Juvenile Turf Highlight
Europeans Outstrip and Giovanni
Boldini ran down 6/5 favorite
Bobby’s Kitten late to complete
a 2-year-old grass sweep for the
overseas contingent. A day prior,
European Chrisellium bested gals
in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
KNOW THIS
Europeans have won all four
Juvenile Turf editions at Santa
Anita (Donativum, Pounced,
George Vancouver and Outstrip).
At least one European has been in
the Juvenile Turf exacta in 6 of the
event’s 7 years.
At least two European-prepped
horses have been in the superfecta
in 6 of 7 Juvenile Turf editions.
4 of 7 Juvenile Turf winners were
prepped at England’s Newmarket
Racecourse.
All seven Juvenile Turf winners
have rallied from at least fifth
place after the opening half-mile.
Race
Y
7
A
D
F
R
Breeders’ Cup
I
Dirt Mile
It Just Makes ’Cents’
by Dick Jerardi Philadelphia Daily News & Daily Racing Form
ANALYSIS: Sometimes, it is best not to complicate an issue that
is as simple as it seems. GOLDENCENTS did not win this race
last year just because jockey Rafael Bejarano was smart enough
to send him on a speed-favoring track. He won because he was
just more talented. A year later, nothing really has changed.
GOLDENCENTS, with six Beyer figures between 105 and 110 and
nearly $2.5 million in earnings, is once again the most talented
horse in the race. And he is a two-way horse. If he is on the lead,
nobody is going to catch him. If he is just off the pace, he has
the acceleration to make the winning move. I think they are all
running for second. Advice: when you think a horse has a chance to
dominate a race with his speed, look to closers for the under spots
in exactas and trifectas.
MAIN CONTENDERS: GOLDENCENTS is going to be favored and
should be favored. FED BIZ ran brilliantly when second to unbeaten
Shared Belief in the Awesome Again and a flat mile always has
looked this colt’s best distance. GOLDEN TICKET has run five times
at this distance, with two wins and two seconds, including last
year’s BC Dirt Mile runner-up. PANTS ON FIRE very quietly has
put together a nice season with three triple-digit Beyers in four
races. TAPITURE ran against the grain of the track when second
to Bayern in the Pennsylvania Derby and was a brutal-trip winner
in the West Virginia Derby. Any son of Tapit has to be upgraded on
general principles, and this horse has more than bloodlines. He
has improving form as he readies for his first start against older
horses.
VALUE PLAYS: GOLDEN TICKET was so consistent at this trip
that his Kelso just does not fit. If he can get back to his typical form
and gets a hot, contested pace up top, he could be the horse that
finishes fastest and could even get up for all of it.
• $60 Exacta: GOLDENCENTS over PANTS ON FIRE ($60)
• $40 Exacta: GOLDENCENTS over TAPITURE ($40)
Dick’s
Picks
1. GOLDENCENTS
2. PANTS ON FIRE
3. TAPITURE
4. GOLDEN TICKET
1 Mile
START
FINISH
Wagering Menu
Win, Place, Show,
Exacta, Trifecta,
Superfecta,
Double, Pick 3,
Pick 4
STATS & TRENDS
Favorites: Win 0%
In-The-Money 14%
$2 Win: $29.11
$1 Exacta: $155.81
$1 Trifecta: $1,611.04
2013 Dirt Mile Highlight
Despite the widest post of all
(11), Goldencents out-footed
the competition to post sizzling
fractions on his way to victory.
KNOW THIS
The $29.11 average $2 winning
mutuel in the Dirt Mile is the
highest among any active
Breeders’ Cup division.
The last six Dirt Mile favorites have
finished out of the money.
Five of seven Dirt Mile winners
finished third or worse in final
preps. Only Furthest Land exited a
win in ’09.
In seven editions no horse over the
age of 5 has won the Dirt Mile.
The one-two finishers in each of
the past two Dirt Mile editions at
Santa Anita were horses with prior
Santa Anita oval experience.
At least one 3-year-old has been in
the Dirt Mile trifecta in each of the
last six years.
Race
Y
8
A
D
F
R
I
Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile Fillies Turf
No Home Field Advantage
by Caton Bredar HRTV & Horseplayernow.com
ANALYSIS: While six renewals of a race may not offer a largeenough sample to bank on, there are some developing trends in
the Juvenile Fillies Turf that suggest California-based horses have
their work cut out for them. Since its 2008 debut, no Cal-based
filly has won the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Winners in this race have
been equally divided between Kentucky, New York and, for the past
two years at Santa Anita, Europe. A strong European contingent
appears to have a good chance of securing a three-peat this year.
Still, recent Del Mar Debutante winner SUNSET GLOW or unbeaten
Big Apple invader LADY ELI suggest that on their best day either
can be a ‘California girl.’
MAIN CONTENDERS: The Irish-bred OSAILA, a winner in half of
her six starts (including last out at Newmarket), and Aidan O’Brientrained QUALIFY, winner of a Group 3 at The Curragh, round out a
pair of top Euro contenders. Each is as talented as they are battletested. Similarly, SUNSET GLOW, winner of the Del Mar Debutante
and Sorrento for Wesley Ward, has three wins and two seconds
in five starts – the last three graded stakes, including a second
at Royal Ascot in June. While based and training at Keeneland,
SUNSET GLOW previously has traversed the country, not to
mention two continents.
VALUE PLAYS: LADY ELI, one of several in this race for trainer
Chad Brown (who won the first BC Juvy Fillies Turf with Maram),
won a graded stakes in only her second start and, according to her
trainer, may be the best he’s had in this category. Recent stakes
winner RHAINA DA BATERIA is likely to be overlooked as her
time for the Jesamine was slow, but the effort, nevertheless, was
impressive.
• $20 Win: OSAILA ($20)
• $20 Exacta Part-Wheel: OSAILA over RHAINA DA BATERIA,
SUNSET GLOW, LADY ELI and QUALIFY ($80)
Caton’s
Picks
1. OSAILA
2. SUNSET GLOW
3. LADY ELI
4. RHAINA DA BATERIA
1 Mile Turf
START
FINISH
Wagering Menu
Win, Place, Show,
Exacta, Trifecta,
Superfecta,
Pick 3
STATS & TRENDS
Favorites: Win 0%
In-The-Money 33%
$2 Win: $21.63
$1 Exacta: $84.55
$1 Trifecta: $1,110.62
2013 Juv. Fillies Turf Highlight
Irish-bred and English-raced
Chriselliam missed the break in
a field of 14, but made the wire
in plenty of time to win by 2-1/2
lengths over Testa Rossi.
KNOW THIS
At least one runner from
Belmont’s Miss Grillo Stakes has
finished in the Juvenile Fillies Turf
exacta in five of the last six years.
Americans have secured 20 of 24
superfecta placings in six editions
of this race.
Juvenile Fillies Turf winner odds
have been between 6-1 and 13-1.
Favorites are 6: 0-1-1.
Colonel Joan, third in the 2013
edition, became the first west
coast-trained filly to finish in the
money in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
Trainer Todd Pletcher is a sharp
6: 1-2-1 in the Juvenile Fillies Turf
with five of six runners finishing in
the superfecta.
Race
Y
9
A
D
F
R
I
Breeders’ Cup
Distaff
Local Form & Speed Triumph
by Jennie Rees Louisville Courier-Journal
ANALYSIS: With 2013 winner Beholder out after spiking a fever,
this race suddenly is very much up for grabs. Favoritism likely will
be between 2013 runner-up CLOSE HATCHES, who would have
been a strong choice until finishing an uncharacteristic fourth
in Keeneland’s Juddmonte Spinster, and Kentucky Oaks winner
UNTAPABLE, who never has faced older fillies and was not at her
best in capturing the Cotillion (wanting to drift badly). UNTAPABLE
did have a strong workout Oct. 19, going five furlongs in a bullet
:58.60. Steve Asmussen as a rule does not work his horses that
fast. When they do, that’s a great sign. (Note: That also bodes well
for Tapiture in the Dirt Mile.) But in the Distaff at Santa Anita, look
for local horses, especially those who race up close to the lead.
In seven prior Distaffs at The Great Race Place, six were won by
California horses.
MAIN CONTENDERS: UNTAPABLE’s work could make her the
favorite. If Bill Mott did not consider CLOSE HATCHES ready for a
big race, she wouldn’t be here. Still, her Spinster debacle scares
me. Look for horses that finished behind Beholder in the Zenyatta,
a race that has produced seven Distaff winners, including five since
2002. The last four occurred with the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita.
VALUE PLAYS: IOTAPA was third in the Zenyatta, but broke
slowly. Outside of Churchill Downs’ seven-furlong Humana Distaff,
she has been quite consistent, including winning Santa Anita’s
Grade 1 Vanity by 10. In her stakes debut, TIZ MIDNIGHT was a
close second to Beholder in the Zenyatta. She is racing 1 1/8 miles
for the first time. DON’T TELL SOPHIA is up against it with her laterunning style. Still, you better put her in the exotics. An interesting
horse for the gimmicks that will be a huge price is the late-running
STANWYCK.
• $10 Exacta Part-Wheel: IOTAPA and TIZ MIDNIGHT over IOTAPA,
TIZ MIDNIGHT, CLOSE HATCHES, UNTAPABLE and
DON’T TELL SOPHIA ($80)
• $20 Show: STANWYCK ($20)
Jennie’s
Picks
1. IOTAPA
2. TIZ MIDNIGHT
3. UNTAPABLE
4. CLOSE HATCHES
1 1/8 Miles
START
FINISH
Wagering Menu
Win, Place, Show,
Exacta, Trifecta,
Superfecta,
Distaff/Classic
Double,
Super High-5
STATS & TRENDS
Favorites: Win 43%
In-The-Money 57%
$2 Win: $17.43
$1 Exacta: $62.25
2013 Distaff Highlight
Two-time reigning Distaff champ
Royal Delta finished fourth as the
7/5 favorite. 3-year-old Beholder
added to her BC jewels that
already included a 2012 Juvenile
Fillies tally.
KNOW THIS
Five of the last six Distaffs held at
Santa Anita were won by horses
raced locally last time out.
Since 2006, every Distaff winner
had a final prep at either Belmont
or Santa Anita.
Trainer Bill Mott has finished first
or second in four straight Distaff
editions with Mushka, Royal Delta
(twice) and Close Hatches.
At least one 3-year-old has been
in the Distaff exacta in each of the
last 4 years, including last year’s
one-two finishers, Beholder and
Close Hatches.
Seven consecutive Distaff winners
have been single-digit odds.
Race
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Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile Fillies
U
Hang With The Chandelier
by Mike Battaglia Official Morning Line Maker Keeneland & Churchill
ANALYSIS: As is always the case, lightly raced two-year-olds from
tracks around the country are difficult to get a handle on. In the
seven years the Juvenile Fillies has been held at Santa Anita, five
winners have been horses that prepped on the west coast--She’s
a Tiger, who crossed the wire first last year but was disqualified,
would have made it an even more amazing six out of seven. I look
for that trend to continue this year.
MAIN CONTENDERS: ANGELA RENEE and CONQUEST ECLIPSE
both ran very well in the Grade 1 Chandelier, Santa Anita’s local
prep. ANGELA RENEE looked sharp winning for Todd Pletcher and
Rafael Bejarano, while CONQUEST ECLIPSE finished well to be
second. Both horses can be expected to move forward and are the
ones to beat. CRISTINA’S JOURNEY is undefeated in two starts and
her speed makes her dangerous.
VALUE PLAYS: TOP DECILE didn’t break sharply in the
Alcibiades, but ran very well to get second at Keeneland. She
showed good speed in her maiden win at Saratoga, and a better
start could make her a dangerous filly at Santa Anita.
• $50 Exacta Box: ANGELA RENEE and CONQUEST ECLIPSE ($100)
Xpressbet Breeders’ Cup Wagering Guide
Stats & Trends and Know This information provided by
Jeremy Plonk (Horseplayernow.com).
Xpressbet Breeders’ Cup Wagering Guide free daily online
updates with revised Analysis, Picks and Wagering Strategies and
clocker Gary Young’s workout analysis, begins Tuesday, Oct. 28.
Mike’s
Picks
1. CONQUEST ECLIPSE
2. ANGELA RENEE
3. TOP DECILE
4. CRISTINA’S JOURNEY
1 1/16 Miles
START FINISH
Wagering Menu
Win, Place, Show,
Exacta, Trifecta,
Superfecta,
Double, Pick 3,
$1.5 Million Pick 4
STATS & TRENDS
Favorites: Win 57%
In-The-Money 80%
$2 Win: $17.58
$1 Exacta: $77.69
2013 Juvenile Fillies Highlight
She’s a Tiger was disqualified
from first and placed second for
stretch inference against eventual
winner Ria Antonia, who lit up the
toteboard at 32-1. This was the
second disqualification in this race;
the first was in the 1984 inaugural
edition.
KNOW THIS
Favorites are an astounding
24-for-30 in the money in the
Juvenile Fillies all-time.
The Juvenile Fillies winner has
exited a Belmont prep race an
amazing 12 times. That’s double
the total of any other circuit (Santa
Anita 6).
Ten of the last 12 Juvenile Fillies
winners exited victories in their
most-recent prep races.
West coast-based horses have won
this race five of seven times it has
been held at Santa Anita. She’s a
Tiger could have made that
six-for-seven had she not been
DQ’d from first in 2013.
Race
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Breeders’ Cup
Filly & Mare Turf
The British Are Coming, Again.
by Caton Bredar HRTV & Horseplayernow.com
ANALYSIS: Since 1999 when this event was initiated, horses bred
in Great Britain, France or Ireland have accounted for 11 of 16
victories, including last year’s winner, British-bred DANK. If you
want to get more specific, the Brits have it overall, winning 60
percent of the Filly & Mare Turf events contested over the past 10
years, including two at Santa Anita. While DANK leads the foreign
charge, she arrives under very different circumstances from last
year and is attempting to become the first ever to win this race in
back-to-back years. Something the great Ouija Board couldn’t do.
MAIN CONTENDERS: While not coming into the race in anywhere
near the same fashion as last year, DANK’s connections have
pointed for Santa Anita for nearly 360 days. The mare has proven
she likes the course and can run a top effort when fresh and must
be regarded a top contender. Irish-bred JUST THE JUDGE enters
off a third in the Beverly D (the race DANK won last year prior to
the Breeders’ Cup) and a follow-up, easy tally in the EP Taylor at
Woodbine just 2 weeks in advance of the Cup. Of the US contingent,
Flower Bowl winner STEPHANIE’S KITTEN seems to be coming
back into top form for Chad Brown, who saddled French-bred
Zagora to victory in this race at Santa Anita in 2012.
VALUE PLAYS: Other Euros like TARFASHA, FIESOLANA,
SECRET GESTURE and VEDA likely will offer value as lower-profile
horses to DANK. Consider SECRET GESTURE as one who may
prefer good-to firm going. On this side of the pond, Chad Brown’s
“other” runner, DAYATTHESPA, is interesting while testing her
speed for the first time at 1-1/4 miles.
• $5 Exacta Part-Wheel: DANK and STEPHANIE’S KITTEN over
DANK, STEPHANIE’S KITTEN, SECRET GESTURE,
JUST THE JUDGE, TARFASHA, FIESOLANA, VEDA and
DAYATTHESPA ($70)
• $5 Exacta Part-Wheel: SECRET GESTURE over DANK,
STEPHANIE’S KITTEN, JUST THE JUDGE, TARFASHA, VEDA and
DAYATTHESPA ($30)
Caton’s
Picks
1. DANK
2. STEPHANIE’S KITTEN
3. SECRET GESTURE
4. JUST THE JUDGE
START
1 1/4 Mile Turf
FINISH
Wagering Menu
Win, Place, Show,
Exacta, Trifecta,
Superfecta,
Double, Pick 3
STATS & TRENDS
Favorites: Win 27%
In-The-Money 80%
$2 Win: $22.20
$1 Exacta: $88.31
2013 Filly & Mare Turf Highlight
Beverly D. heroine Dank returned
stateside for another score as the
Sir Michael Stoute trainee led a
wild finish with a mere two lengths
separating the top six finishers. It
was Stoute’s record-tying third win
in the Filly & Mare Turf.
KNOW THIS
In 15 years, only three favorites
have been out of the money in the
Filly & Mare Turf.
Horses that prepped in California
are 0-for-31 all-time in the Filly &
Mare Turf, with only three in-themoney finishes.
Only 5 of 15 Filly & Mare Turf
winners exited winning preps.
Notable training turf titans to
struggle in the Filly & Mare
Turf include:
Christophe Clement (7: 0-1-0)
Aidan O’Brien (8: 0-1-2)
John Gosden (4: 0-0-1)
Saeed bin Suroor (5: 0-0-0)
Bill Mott (6: 0-0-0).
Race
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DraftKings Breeders’ Cup
Filly & Mare Sprint
Outside Speed Will Be Key
by Mike Battaglia Official Morning Line Maker Keeneland & Churchill
ANALYSIS: This looks like an extremely competitive race with
several solid contenders. The defection of La Verdad helps the
chances of the other speed horses, namely MIDNIGHT LUCKY
and LEIGH COURT, but the post position draw will be a key to
handicapping this race. An outside post will be a definite advantage.
Make certain to check back for revised selections for this race as
listed in Xpressbet’s Breeders’ Cup Wagering Guide Updates!
MAIN CONTENDERS: Sophomore filly ARTEMIS AGROTERA
rides a three-race win streak, defeating older runners in each of
her scores. She has the ability to come from just off of the pace and
has to be respected. MIDNIGHT LUCKY has won four of five starts,
but has been idle since May. She is training sharply for Bob Baffert,
who wins with nearly 30% of his runners coming off of long layoffs.
JUDY THE BEAUTY has finished first or second in 15 of 17 career
races and was second in this race last year. LEIGH COURT was
extremely impressive winning the Thoroughbred Club of America
on the Keeneland dirt. That single prep has produced five straight
winners of the Filly & Mare Sprint.
VALUE PLAYS: LEIGH COURT could easily be overlooked in the
wagering, but is coming into this one in top form. She had a solid
3-year-old campaign, but looks to be even better at four and is
unbeaten in two starts since coming back after a 10-month layoff.
• $20 Exacta Key Box: MIDNIGHT LUCKY over JUDY THE BEAUTY
and LEIGH COURT ($80)
• $10 Exacta Box: JUDY THE BEAUTY and LEIGH COURT ($20)
Xpressbet Breeders’ Cup Wagering Guide free daily online updates
with revised Analysis, Picks and Wagering Strategies and clocker
Gary Young’s workout analysis, begins Tuesday, Oct. 28.
START
7 Furlongs
FINISH
Wagering Menu
Win, Place, Show,
Exacta, Trifecta,
Superfecta,
Double, Pick 3
STATS & TRENDS
Favorites: Win 29%
In-The-Money 57%
$2 Win: $15.34
$1 Exacta: $60.87
2013 Filly & Mare Sprint Highlight
Groupie Doll proved rumors of her
demise were greatly exaggerated,
winning her second straight Filly
& Mare Sprint as a lukewarm 3/1
favorite. She paid more to win in
2013 ($8) than the $1 exacta did
when she scored in 2012 ($6).
KNOW THIS
Keeneland’s Thoroughbred Club of
America Stakes has produced five
consecutive winners of this race.
Groupie Doll is the only favorite to
have won the Filly & Mare Sprint
and she did it twice in ’12 & ’13.
Pacesetters have finished third,
fifth, fifth, seventh, eighth, tenth
and eleventh in seven editions of
the Filly & Mare Sprint.
All seven winners of the F&M
Sprint exited at least a top-three
finish in their final prep race–six of
those were top-two finishes.
Switch, runner-up in 2010, is the
only California-prepped runner to
ever land in the F&M Sprint exacta.
Mike’s
Picks
1. MIDNIGHT LUCKY
2. JUDY THE BEAUTY
3. LEIGH COURT
4. ARTEMIS AGROTERA
Race
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Breeders’ Cup
Turf Sprint
Hill Experience is Critical
by Jennie Rees Louisville Courier-Journal
ANALYSIS: Two-time Turf Sprint winner Mizdirection is retired, but
she epitomized two basic tenets of the Turf Sprint at Santa Anita,
run at six and one-half furlongs over a unique downhill course as
compared to a flat five and one-half furlongs at Churchill Downs.
Experience over the tricky course, which includes running across
the main track to get onto the turf course proper, is critical. You
can bet a horse that got beat in the local preps, and your exotics
should be dominated by such horses. And don’t be afraid to bet
fillies, as Mizdirection showed, along with RENEESGOTZIP, a close
second last year and third in 2012.
MAIN CONTENDERS: RENEESGOTZIP is making her third start
off a 9-1/2-month layoff and looks to be sitting on a big effort.
The 3-year-old colt HOME RUN KITTEN is 2-for-2 on the course,
rallying to beat older horses to take the Grade 3 Eddie D Stakes in
his last start. He’s trained by David Hofmans, who won the 2008
Turf Sprint with bomber Desert Code. I can’t believe REGALLY
READY, the 2011 winner at Churchill Downs, wasn’t picked into the
body of the race and needs seven defections to start. He has been
refashioned into a miler this year and the drop back to sprinting is
intriguing. He has spent a lot of time in California, winning 3 of 5
starts on the course. If he gets in, I’m playing him.
VALUE PLAYS: SWEET SWAP hasn’t run since April 13, but loves
the course. AMBITIOUS BREW lost the Eddie D by a nose and is
another course specialist. TIGHTEND TOUCHDOWN was third last
year at 18-1. UNDRAFTED could be overlooked at a good price.
• $10 Exacta Part-Wheel: RENEESGOTZIP and AMBITIOIUS BREW
over RENEESGOTZIP, AMBITIOIUS BREW, HOME RUN KITTEN,
SWEET SWAP and TIGHTEND TOUCHDOWN ($80)
• $20 Win: UNDRAFTED or REGALLY READY, if he gets in ($20)
START
6 1/2 Furlongs Turf
FINISH
Wagering Menu
Win, Place, Show,
Exacta, Trifecta,
Superfecta,
Double, Pick 3,
$2.5 Million Pick 6
STATS & TRENDS
Favorites: Win 50%
In-The-Money 67%
$2 Win: $21.57
$1 Exacta: $114.50
$1 Trifecta: $1,438.48
2013 Turf Sprint Highlight
Defending champion Mizdirection
returned after a five-month layoff
to register back-to-back wins in
this race. ‘California girls’ ran 1-2
as Reneesgotzip finished second.
KNOW THIS
The Turf Sprint’s post-time favorite
has finished first or second in 4 of
the last 5 editions.
California-based horses have won
all 4 editions of the Turf Sprint held
on Santa Anita’s unique, downhill
turf course.
Europeans have finished 4th, 10th,
12th and 14th twice in the Turf
Sprint at Santa Anita. Not one
attempted the race a year ago.
Fillies/mares have placed in 4 of
6 Turf Sprints, including one-two
and one-three finishes the past
two years.
The Turf Sprint has average 13.8
starters in its six-year history,
most of any Breeders’ Cup division.
Jennie’s
Picks
1. RENEESGOTZIP
2. AMBITIOIUS BREW
3. HOME RUN KITTEN
4. SWEET SWAP
Race
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Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile
U
Traditional East-West Matchup
by Bob Neumeier NBC Sports
ANALYSIS: The east vs. west narrative always is fun, no matter
what the sport. In the ‘80s, Celtics vs. Lakers thrilled us to
the bone. On the track, Sunday Silence and Easy Goer vied for
coastal supremacy with a number of memorable matchups. The
2014 Juvenile will showcase three outstanding two-year-olds,
AMERICAN PHAROAH, CARPE DIEM and DAREDEVIL, frankly the
fastest crop since the days of Uncle Mo.
MAIN CONTENDERS: AMERICAN PHAROAH, the likely favorite,
represents the west. Trained by Bob Baffert (Who else?), this
baby has several advantages over his competitors besides blazing
speed: a win over the track at two turns, and a buzz among west
coast clockers in his Breeders’ Cup preparations. From the eastern
seaboard comes Todd Pletcher (Who else?), armed with two
bullets to take down the ‘Pharoah. CARPE DIEM (“seize the day”)
is a perfect 2-for-2 with a two-turn distance win in the Breeder’s
Futurity at Keeneland, annihilating MR. Z of the Wayne Lukas barn.
But maybe the most intriguing is DAREDEVIL, owned by the Let’s
Go Stable (Verrazano, anyone?). He’s also 2-for-2, but nit-pickers
will quibble that both his wins came over wet tracks. Want to see
two effortless victories? Check out video on this monster. It seems
unusual, however, that Pletcher opts not to breeze his troops over
the Santa Anita strip. Advantage, AMERICAN PHAROAH.
VALUE PLAYS: CALCULATOR is a stab, having finished second
to AMERICAN PHAROAH in the Del Mar Futurity and Frontrunner
Stakes. But given the strength of the Big 3, shopping for value may
be a case of “whistling past the graveyard.”
• $50 Exacta Part-Wheel: AMERICAN PHAROAH over CARPE DIEM
and DAREDEVIL ($100)
Bob’s
Picks
1. AMERICAN PHAROAH 2. DAREDEVIL
3. CARPE DIEM
4. CALCULATOR
1 1/16 Miles
START FINISH
Wagering Menu
Win, Place, Show,
Exacta, Trifecta,
Superfecta,
Double, Pick 3
STATS & TRENDS
Favorites: Win 37%
In-The-Money 70%
$2 Win: $17.09
$1 Exacta: $88.83
2013 Juvenile Highlight
The “other” Bob Baffert trainee,
10-1 shot New Year’s Day, rallied
from eight lengths back to win
going away over favorite Havana.
Baffert’s more-fancied runner Tap
It Rich finished fifth at 3-1.
KNOW THIS
Eight straight Juvenile favorites
have finished in the exacta.
In the seven Juveniles held at
Santa Anita, west coast-based
horses have won five times.
The Juvenile trifecta has not
included two double-digit odds
horses since 1997 when a pair
of big prices chased home 6-5
favorite Favorite Trick.
Since Street Sense swept the ’06
Juvenile and ’07 Kentucky Derby,
the only Juvenile winner to race in
the Kentucky Derby is Hansen.
15 of 30 Juvenile winners most
recently prepped at either Belmont
(8) or Santa Anita (7).
Race
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Breeders’ Cup
Turf
U
Good Chance for a Euro Sweep
by Jeff Siegel HRTV
ANALYSIS: European shippers have won 12 of the past 15 editions
of the Turf, and European-based trainers Sir Michael Stoute
and Aidan O’Brien each have won the race on four occasions;
so that’s where our handicapping must begin. Stoute has been
specifically pointing TELESCOPE to this race for months, and
a close examination of this colt’s 2014 form and company lines
make him an obvious top selection. However, O’Brien can never
be underestimated; he brought MAGICIAN to this race last year
and the victory, his 12-1 odds notwithstanding, was hardly a fluke.
The son of Galileo should run just as well this year. FLINTSHIRE
is another powerful Euro invader with a preference for top-of-theground. In short, the Americans might be in trouble. Again.
MAIN CONTENDERS: TELESCOPE looked all-world winning the
Hardwicke at Royal Ascot in June; in fact, the only runners to finish
ahead of him this year are Noble Mission, Taghrooda, Australia and
The Grey Gatsby, any one of whom would be favored in this race.
TELESCOPE is thoroughly genuine and has been first or second
in nine of 10 career starts and never out of the frame. MAGICIAN
finished second in the Arlington Million in his most recent
appearance; it was a good-enough effort, but he’s better than that.
FLINTSHIRE is fresh from a superb runner-up performance to
Treve in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe; if he runs back to that race
at Santa Anita, he’ll likely win.
VALUE PLAYS: The best the Americans have to offer would seem
to be MAIN SEQUENCE, a winner of three consecutive Grade 1s
since being imported from England. However, before being sent
to the States, the Graham Motion-trained gelding was a Group 3
performer at best, and ranked far below TELESCOPE and the like.
The veteran IMAGINING projects as the pacesetter and he could
take them a long way on the front end at a nice price. It’s hard to
see him winning, though.
• $40 Win: TELESCOPE ($40)
• $10 Exacta Box: TELESCOPE, MAGICIAN and FLINTSHIRE ($60)
Jeff’s
Picks
1. TELESCOPE
2. MAGICIAN
3. FLINTSHIRE
4. MAIN SEQUENCE
START
1 1/2 Mile Turf
FINISH
Wagering Menu
Win, Place, Show,
Exacta, Trifecta,
Superfecta,
Double, Pick 3,
$3 Million Pick 4
STATS & TRENDS
Favorites: Win 30%
In-The-Money 63%
$2 Win: $21.71
$1 Exacta: $84.17
2013 Turf Highlight
Europeans Magician and favored
filly The Fugue led a rally as
defending champion Little Mike
faded to seventh. The international
flavor of the Turf saw horses bred
in Ireland, England and Argentina
sweep the trifecta.
KNOW THIS
Four of the last five Turf winners
rebounded from off-the-board
finishes in their final prep.
At least one foreign-bred horse
has been in the Turf trifecta each
of the past 15 years, including 10
winners during that span.
European invaders have won 12 of
the last 15 Turf events, including
last year’s one-two sweep.
The last pacesetter to win the Turf
was Buck’s Boy in 1998.
No horse over the age of five
has won the Breeders’ Cup Turf.
Seven renewals have been won by
3-year-olds – two American-based.
Race
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Xpressbet Breeders’ Cup
Sprint
U
$1.5 Million - Grade 1
The Secret Is In
by Dick Jerardi Philadelphia Daily News & Daily Racing Form
ANALYSIS: I am not sure season-long form is all that relevant in
this race anymore. It may be most about the horse that has been
pointed specifically for this race, and has the speed to get into the
race early and stay there – sort of like SECRET CIRCLE last year.
It was bizarre that it only took a 98 Beyer to win in 2013, but that
was almost certainly a one-year aberration. There are not a lot of
confirmed frontrunners in this year’s field, so I am thinking the
horses with a lot of early 1s in their lines will be quite dangerous.
MAIN CONTENDERS: SECRET CIRCLE is really kind of amazing.
He has raced just 11 times in more than three years on the track.
His third in the Oct. 4 Santa Anita Sprint championship was the
first time he was not first or second, but you absolutely know that
was a prep race. Going for his third BC win (he also took the 2011
Juvenile Sprint), SECRET CIRCLE is very, very dangerous. Two-time
Vosburgh winner PRIVATE ZONE is another horse who sat most of
the year to gear up for a chance at the major year-end sprint races.
RICH TAPESTRY has raced at tracks in Ireland, Hong Kong, the UAE
and, finally, Santa Anita. When a horse with that kind of resume
wins his first and only start on dirt, such a horse must be taken
very seriously. WORK ALL WEEK is appropriately named. Throw out
the turf race in his debut and he is 11-for-13 with two seconds, all
at 6 furlongs except two races at 5 1/2 furlongs. The Illinois-bred
proved he was more than just a Midwestern horse when he won at
Oaklawn Park and Keeneland, where his form held up just fine.
VALUE PLAYS: WORK ALL WEEK has been favored in 11 of his
last 12 races, but has never faced a field this deep in talent. Thus,
he may be overlooked in the wagering.
• $50 Exacta Box: SECRET CIRCLE and WORK ALL WEEK ($100)
Dick’s
Picks
1. SECRET CIRCLE
2. WORK ALL WEEK
3. PRIVATE ZONE
4. RICH TAPESTRY
START
6 Furlongs
FINISH
Wagering Menu
Win, Place, Show,
Exacta, Trifecta,
Superfecta,
Double, Pick 3
STATS & TRENDS
Favorites: Win 23%
In-The-Money 43%
$2 Win: $21.35
$1 Exacta: $158.52
$1 Trifecta: $1,506.17
2013 Sprint Highlight
Bob Baffert notched his second
win on the card as Secret Circle
added to the trainer’s Juvenile
success with New Year’s Day.
The 5/2 favorite led a melee finish
in which the top 9 finishers were
within 5 lengths.
KNOW THIS
California-based runners have
won six of the last eight Sprint
renewals, including Secret Circle
in ’13.
Bob Baffert owns the Sprint record
with four training wins: Secret
Circle ’13, Midnight Lute ’07-’08,
Thirty Slews ’92.
Since 2001, the BC Sprint rail post
position is a very solid 12: 2-3-1.
Jockey Corey Nakatani has
finished in the Sprint superfecta
with nine of 12 mounts, including
four wins.
Since 2000, only one Sprint
winner has been older than five
(Speightstown in 2004 at age 6).
Race
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Breeders’ Cup
Mile
Use the Head
by Bob Neumeier NBC Sports
ANALYSIS: We use our heads for countless reasons – to think,
to strike soccer balls into a net, to support fancy hats, etc, etc.
Horseplayers studying the Mile should use their heads as well …
Freddy Head. Has anybody dominated a division like this 67-yearold Frenchman has over the history of the Breeders’ Cup? He
piloted Miesque to back-to-back wins in the 1980s, then trained
Goldikova for an incredible three Mile victories as well. And now,
Head offers us the brother of Goldikova, the tough-luck ANODIN, to
compete in the 2014 Mile – where his sleepy-good form could upset
odds-on favorite TORONADO.
MAIN CONTENDERS: With the unfortunate injury to Wise Dan,
much of the luster has been diminished from this year’s Mile.
Barring a horrendous outside draw, TORONADO will be a solid
choice in a bulky, well-balanced field. He’s danced with the best
Europe has to offer, such as Charm Spirit (another Head), Night
of Thunder and Kingman. Trainer Richard Hannon Jr. will look to
get the Hannon name into a Breeders’ Cup winner’s circle upon
the retirement of his father. While ANODIN has yet to win a race in
2014, he’s been hopelessly unlucky in his runs. That is also true of
top North American hopeful, SEEK AGAIN, who lost a stirring battle
to Wise Dan on Derby Day at Churchill Downs.
VALUE PLAYS: BIG BANE THEORY has the look of a live longshot
with a solid race over the same course at the same distance.
While his overall class can be debated, both TOM’S TRIBUTE and
OBVIOUSLY have been successful in California Grade 1 and 2
events, and should be respected. Other Euros to consider would be
the Japanese-bred KARAKONTIE, bet down to 4.90-to-1 in the Prix
de la Foret at Longchamp, as well as MUSTAJEEB, who recently
beat the red-hot Gordon Lord Byron.
• $15 Exacta Part-Wheel: TORONADO and ANODIN over
TORONADO, ANODIN, SEEK AGAIN and BIG BANE THEORY ($90)
• $10 Win: BIG BANE THEORY at 20-1 or higher ($10)
Bob’s
Picks
1. TORONADO
2. ANODIN
3. SEEK AGAIN
4. BIG BANE THEORY
1 Mile Turf
START
FINISH
Wagering Menu
Win, Place, Show,
Exacta, Trifecta,
Superfecta,
Double
STATS & TRENDS
Favorites: Win 37%
In-The-Money 53%
$2 Win: $21.57
$1 Exacta: $153.11
$1 Trifecta: $1,603.42
2013 Mile Highlight
Reigning Horse of the Year and
Mile champ Wise Dan made it two
straight on both fronts following
his popular score at 4/5 odds. He
became the 22nd horse in history
to win a Breeders’ Cup race at
odds of less than even money.
KNOW THIS
Five of the last six Mile winners
have been 8/5 or less and at Santa
Anita the favorite has won the Mile
five of the last six times.
Favorites have won 11 Mile
renewals, but have only 5 other
second or third-place finishes.
American runners have completed
at least two-thirds of the trifecta in
nine consecutive years.
The Woodbine Mile has produced
the last three winners of this race
and a trifecta finisher in six of the
last seven Breeders’ Cup Miles.
Fillies have beaten the boys 15
times in Breeders’ Cup history eight times in the Mile.
Race
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A
T
Breeders’ Cup
Classic
U
Sophomores Hold the Classic Cards
by Steve Byk At the Races - Sirius/XM
ANALYSIS: We again come to the Classic with the familiar scenario
of pace-dependent major players that seemingly assure a fairly run
feature. BAYERN and MORENO both will want the lead as CIGAR
STREET, CALIFORNIA CHROME, SHARED BELIEF, TOAST OF NEW
YORK and TONALIST take up the chase as pace-presser and midpack stalkers. A variety of confirmed and credentialed closers like
ZIVO, MAJESTIC HARBOR, V. E. DAY and IMPERATIVE will try to
arrive late on the scene.
MAIN CONTENDERS: With 2013 Classic stars retired, the
impressive crop of 2014 sophomores headline this Classic edition
comprising half the field. And with Wise Dan and Beholder
sidelined, the spotlight shines on undefeated SHARED BELIEF,
who has potential to exit the weekend as a multiple-year Eclipse
Champion and Horse of the Year. Dual Classic winner CALIFORNIA
CHROME, Belmont Stakes/Jockey Club Gold Cup hero TONALIST
and Haskell/PA Derby star BAYERN are poised should concerns for
SHARED BELIEF’s main track prowess prove out.
VALUE PLAYS: It is another 3-year-old that is the race’s most
intriguing candidate, and the premier value – TOAST OF NEW
YORK. Making his third start in the US and on a third surface, the
Jamie Osborne trainee was forced to take up in the Pacific Classic
or might have dueled more extensively with SHARED BELIEF. He
has many of the same qualities Declaration of War brought to this
event a year ago and can win at double-digit odds. ZIVO always runs
his race and a collapsing pace at the 10-furlong trip would give him
a real upset chance.
• $30 Win: TOAST OF NEW YORK ($30)
• $1 Trifecta Part-Wheel: TOAST OF NEW YORK, SHARED BELIEF
over TOAST OF NEW YORK, SHARED BELIEF, ZIVO, TONALIST,
BAYERN, CIGAR STREET over TOAST OF NEW YORK,
SHARED BELIEF, ZIVO, TONALIST, BAYERN, CIGAR STREET,
V.E. DAY, MAJESTIC HARBOR and PRAYER FOR RELIEF ($70)
Steve’s
Picks
1. TOAST OF NEW YORK 2. SHARED BELIEF
3. ZIVO
4. TONALIST
1 1/4 Miles
START
FINISH
Wagering Menu
Win, Place, Show,
Exacta, Trifecta,
Superfecta,
Super High-5
STATS & TRENDS
Favorites: Win 27%
In-The-Money 60%
$2 Win: $28.22
$1 Exacta: $107.30
$1 Trifecta: $1,769.50
2013 Classic Highlight
Mucho Macho Man, runner-up
in the ’12 Classic at Santa Anita,
got his nose on the wire first in
a three-way thriller with Will
Take Charge and the Irish raider
Declaration of War.
KNOW THIS
Seven of the last eight Classic
winners have paid double-digits.
Only Zenyatta ($7.60) in ’09 paid
less.
At least one 3-year-old has
finished in the Classic trifecta in
seven of the last nine years. The
last time sophomores swept the
trifecta was 2000 when Tiznow led
a 1-2-3-4 sweep for 3-year-olds.
No horse over the age of 5 has ever
won the Breeders’ Cup Classic. A
5-year-old has won this race eight
times, including Mucho Macho Man
in 2013.
Foreign shippers are 2-for-41
in the Classic, but both winners,
Arcangues and Raven’s Pass,
were victorious at Santa Anita.
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BREEDERS` CUP WAGERING GUIDE

Transcription

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