Evaluation of the HBV-IWW hydrological model of the Tagus basin

Transcription

Evaluation of the HBV-IWW hydrological model of the Tagus basin
LEIBNIZ UNIVERSITY HANNOVER
Institute of Water Resources Management, Hydrology and
Agricultural Hydraulic Engineering (WAWI)
ISIMIP: Evaluation of the HBV-IWW
hydrological model
of the Tagus basin
S. Plötner, M. Wallner, U. Haberlandt
30/07/2014, Hannover
1
Chapter 1
Data
Table 1.1: Overview of the used data for the Tagus basin
River basin
Outlet
Meteorology
Discharge
Topography
Landuse
Soil
Lakes & Reservoirs
Tagus
Almourol
WFD
GRDC
SRTM v.4
GLC2000 v.1.1
HWSD v.1.2
GLWD
Table 1.2: Overall calibration and validation periods for the Tagus basin, due to progressive
calibration approach all available gauges within the main stream are calibrated.
Potential time gaps of missing data in individual runoff time series are not
displayed.
Model ∆t Basin
gauge
HBV- daily Tagus Almourol
IWW
Calibration
01/10/1978 - 28/02/1981
Validation
01/10/1977 - 30/09/1978
and
and
01/10/1987 - 30/09/1990
01/03/1981 - 30/09/1986
II
2
Chapter 2
Tagus basin
0.9
NSE
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
DDcal
DDval
MDcal MDval
MAcal
MAval
Figure 2.1: Nash-Sutcliffe-Efficiency boxplot of all runoff gauges within the Tagus basin
for daily (DD) and monthly dynamics (MD) and monthly averages (MA) for
the calibration (cal) and validation period (val). calibration only done at Trillo
and Almourol gauges on daily timestep. on monthly timestep all gauges with
additional monthly data are used for validation. Values larger or smaller than
1.5 times the interquartile range are marked as outliers. Mean (red dots),
outliers (grey dots).
PBIAS
0
−5
−10
−15
DDcal
DDval
MDcal MDval
MAcal
MAval
Figure 2.2: Percent bias boxplot of all runoff gauges within the Tagus basin for daily (DD)
and monthly dynamics (MD) and monthly averages (MA) for the calibration (cal) and validation period (val). calibration only done at Trillo and
Almourol gauges on daily timestep. on monthly timestep all gauges with additional monthly data are used for validation. Values larger or smaller than
1.5 times the interquartile range are marked as outliers. Mean (red dots),
outliers (grey dots).
III
2 Tagus basin
Table 2.1: Criteria of fit at gauge Almourol, the outlet gauge of the Tagus basin for the
calibration and validation period.
Tagus
Almourol
NSE
Daily dynamics
0.86
-2.5
0.76
-3.2
Monthly dynamics
0.97
-2.6
0.91
-3.2
Monthly averages
0.96
-2.6
0.90
-3.2
Calibration
PBIAS in %
NSE
Validation
PBIAS in %
IV
14
13
8°0’0"W
7°0’0"W
European Lambert
Conformal Conic
coordinate system:
0
VILA VELHA DE RODAO
ALMOUROL
ALCANTARA
BELVER
12
9°0’0"W
50
10
11
100
6°0’0"W
9
200
TALAVERA
5°0’0"W
8
6
5
7
300
4°0’0"W
1:3.000.000
3
staion name: Almourol
Tejo basin
4
2
400
TRILLO
3°0’0"W
km
1
PERALEJOS
2°0’0"W
39°0’0"N
40°0’0"N
41°0’0"N
42°0’0"N
Institute of Water Resources Management, Hydrology
and Agricultural Hydraulic Engineering (WAWI)
eMail: ploetner@iww.uni-hannover.de
Dipl.-Hydrol. Stefan Plötner
Reservoirs:
GLWD Global Lakes and
Wetlands Database
Hydro:
GRDC Global Runoff
Data Center
Meteo:
WFD Watch Forcing Data
References:
River Network
Subbasins
GLWD Reservoirs
GRDC Stations
WFD Raster Centers
Legend
2 Tagus basin
Figure 2.3: River Network of the Tagus basin derived from a SRTM 90 m DEM dataset
resampled to 250 m grid resolution.
V
Runoff in m³/s
Runoff in m³/s
0
Jan
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
Runoff in m³/s
Feb
1979
1979
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
calibration − monthly averages
1980
calibration − monthly dynamics
1980
calibration − daily dynamics
Aug
Sep
Oct
NSE: 0.95
NSE: 0.96
NSE: 0.84
Nov
PBIAS: −0.6%
1981
PBIAS: −0.9%
1981
PBIAS: −1.4%
Dec
Jan
Trillo:
1978
1978
Feb
Mar
Apr
1979
1979
May
Jun
Jul
validation − monthly averages
1980
validation − monthly dynamics
1980
validation − daily dynamics
Aug
1981
1981
Sep
Oct
NSE: 0.84
1982
NSE: 0.93
1982
NSE: 0.85
Nov
PBIAS: −10.7%
PBIAS: −8.7%
PBIAS: −8.6%
Dec
2 Tagus basin
Figure 2.4: Model performance between observed (black) and simulated runoff (red) within
calibration and validation period at gauge Trillo for daily and monthly dynamics
and monthly averages.
VI
Runoff in m³/s
Runoff in m³/s
Runoff in m³/s
0
Jan
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Feb
1988
1988
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
calibration − monthly averages
1989
calibration − monthly dynamics
1989
calibration − daily dynamics
Aug
Sep
1990
1990
Oct
NSE: 0.96
NSE: 0.97
NSE: 0.86
Nov
PBIAS: −2.6%
PBIAS: −2.6%
PBIAS: −2.5%
Dec
Jan
Almourol:
Feb
1983
1983
Mar
Apr
1984
1984
May
Jun
Jul
validation − monthly averages
1985
validation − monthly dynamics
1985
validation − daily dynamics
Aug
Sep
Oct
NSE: 0.9
1986
NSE: 0.91
1986
NSE: 0.76
Nov
PBIAS: −3.2%
PBIAS: −3.2%
PBIAS: −3.2%
Dec
2 Tagus basin
Figure 2.5: Model performance between observed (black) and simulated runoff (red) within
calibration and validation period at gauge Almourol for daily and monthly
dynamics and monthly averages.
VII
0
Jan
50
100
150
200
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Feb
1975
1976
Mar
1977
Apr
1978
1979
May
Talavera:
1981
1982
1983
Jun
Jul
validation − monthly averages
1980
validation − monthly dynamics
Aug
1984
Sep
1985
Oct
Nov
PBIAS: −4.2%
1988
PBIAS: −5%
1987
NSE: 0.77
1986
NSE: 0.7
Dec
2 Tagus basin
Figure 2.6: Model performance for additional monthly data between observed (black) and
simulated runoff (red) within validation period at gauge Talavera for monthly
dynamics and averages.
VIII
0
Jan
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Feb
1975
Mar
1976
Apr
1977
1978
May
Alcantara:
1980
1981
Jun
Jul
validation − monthly averages
1979
validation − monthly dynamics
Aug
1982
Sep
1983
Oct
NSE: 0.7
1984
NSE: 0.8
Nov
PBIAS: −5.7%
1985
PBIAS: −5.7%
Dec
2 Tagus basin
Figure 2.7: Model performance for additional monthly data between observed (black) and
simulated runoff (red) within validation period at gauge Alcantara for monthly
dynamics and averages.
IX
Nov
PBIAS: −4.9%
Jan
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
validation − monthly averages
1975
Belver:
validation − monthly dynamics
Aug
Sep
Oct
NSE: 0.39
NSE: 0.49
PBIAS: −4.9%
Dec
2 Tagus basin
Figure 2.8: Model performance for additional monthly data between observed (black) and
simulated runoff (red) within validation period at gauge Belver for monthly
dynamics and averages.
X

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