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aw
[3]
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On en déduit immédiatement le niveau de salaire optimal, w 0 :
[4]
Wo
w*/(l-a) > w'
et l'effort consentieo
[5]
eo = (awO)8
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Quelles que soient les modélisations retenues, une question essentielle
demeure,celle de la déterminationdu salaireéquitablew'. L'accent est mis sur la notion
de groupe de référence (Akerlof [1982]) ou sur relIe de transaction de référence
(Kahneman,Knetsch et Thaler [1986]). Mais ce groupede référenceou cette transaction
de référenceest largementindéterminé.Commel'écrivent Akerlof et YelIen, "Les théories
psychologiquesne nous donnentque peu d' indications pour déterminer les groupes de
référenœ. Il y a trois possibilitésnaturelles: les individus peuventse compareravec ceux
qui occupentdes postessimilaires dans la même entreprise,avec ceux qui occupentdes
postes différents dans la même entreprise ou avec les salariés des autres entreprises"
([1990], p.259). Plus profondément, la déterminationdes situations de référence est
largement dépendantedes événementshistoriques qui façonnent l'environnement des
agents. En effet la notion de référence,qui est ici mobilisée, est plus proche de celle de
normal ou d'habituel, que de celle, plus normative, dejuste. En particulier, le précédenty
joue un rôle fondamental. Comme le soulignent certains auteurs, n'importe quelle
configurationqui montre une tendanceà la stabilité peutêtre acceptéecommenormale. La
référenceapparaît, dans ces raisonnements,comme une auto-productiondu système: la
norme n'est jamais très loin de la moyenne."Des étudespsychologiquessur l'adaptation
suggèrentque n'importe quel état desaffaires tend à être finalementaccepté,au moins au
sensoù les autrespossibilités cessentd' être présentesà l'esprit. Des termesde l'échange,
considérésinitialement comme iniques, peuvent, au cours du temps, acquérir le statut
d'une transactionde référence... Les gensadaptentleur conceptionde l'équité aux normes
qui commandentles comportementsréels" (Kahnemanet al., p.730-1). Cette proximité
troublante entre salaire équitable et salaire moyen conduit Reynaudà s'interroger sur la
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Un des aspectsessentielsdes conventionsest leur caractèreauto-renforçant.
Lorsqu'on considère un jeu à n personnes comme dans le cas précédent, cela signifie que,
s'il existe un petit nombre d'individus qui ne se conforment pas à la convention, ils
obtiennentune utilité moindre que celle qu'ils eussentobtenueen suivant la convention.
Cette propriété rend très problématiquela modificationdesconventions,commed' ailleurs
le laissentsupposerles expériencesde changementde languesou de systèmesde mesure,
pour ne prendre que ces exemplesextrêmes. Ce problème se pose avec d'autant plus
d'âpreté que, conformémentau jeu JI, on se trouve dans une situation où la convention
prévalente, à savoir CI, est inefficace au sensparétien. Dans ces conditions existent-ils
processus internes permettant de modifier de manière endogène la convention
existante?Nous allons analyserce cas d'un point de vue théorique avant d'étudier la
réforme des salairesproposépar H. Ford en 1914.
m -PEill
-ON CHANGER DE CONVENTION?
fi est éclairantd' aborderce problèmeen utilisant le vocabulaireet les concepts
de l'économie évolutionniste. En effet la notion d'auto-renforcementd'une norme est au
coeur de la notion d'équilibre évolutionnairementstable(EES), proposéepar J. Maynard
Smith [1982] et reprise R. Sugden[1986] : "Un équilibre évolutionnairementstable est
une forme de comportementtelle que, si elle est généralementsuivie au sein d'une
population, tout petit grouped'individus qui en dévie réussitmoins bien que ceux qui la
suivent" (p.91). Un EES résiste à toute stratégiedéviante pour peu que celle-ci ne soit
suivie que par un faible nombre d'individus, d'où le terme d'évolutionnairementstable:
une" mutation"
qui
n'affecterait
que quelques individus
ne saurait renverser le
comportement dominant. Suivant Sugden, on peut alors définir une convention comme un
EES dans un jeu qui en comporte au moins deux(7) .Cette
nouvelle définition de la
convention, qui recoupelargementl'ancienne, a l'intérêt de soulignerle caractèreautorenforçant de la convention: une fois établie, elle ne peut être "envahie" par petits
groupes. Commentrendre compte alors, dans un tel cadre, des transitions historiques?
Pour analyser cette question, nous partirons du modèle précédent. Pour obtenir une
formalisation cohérente avec les analyses historiques des parties suivantes, nous le
(7)
Sugden(1989)91. Pour une comparaisonentre cettedéfinition, celle de Lewis et l'équilibre de Nash,cf. Sugden(1986)
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productifs. Il faut maintenants'interroger sur le destinde cetteinnovation: l'invasion des
entrepreneurstraditionnelspar Henry Ford et seséventuelsimitateurs, va-t-elle conduire à
la transitionvers la nouvelle conventionsalarialefordienne ? Comme on l'a déjà suggéré,
l'histoire s'est chargéede canaliserla politique des 5 $ par jour dans une tout autre
direction que celle imaginéepar Henry Ford.
Vil
-HEURS
ET MALHEURS D'UN VISIONNAIRE...OU LES DIFFICULTES
D'EMERGENCE D'UNE NOUVELLE NORME SALARIALE.
C'est en effet la conclusion convergente des études disponibles que de
soulignerla multiplicité des difficultés qui ont entravéla mise en oeuvre, puis la diffusion
de l'innovation fordienne. Plutôt que de fournir un exposéchronologique, on se propose
d'analyserquelquesunes des raisonsde ces blocages,des plus microéconomiquesà ceux
qui concernentla sociétéaméricainedans sonensemble.
L'impossibilité d' internaliser totalement les effets favorables des 5 $ par jour.
L'innovation salariale d'Henry Ford est-elle l'équivalent d'une innovation
proprement technologique, ne mettant en jeu aucun rendementd'échelle dynamique?
Divers indiœs incitent à une réponsenégative.Tout d'abord, il sembleraitque l'innovation
productive de Sorensenait très vite fait écoleà Détroit (D.A. Hounshell [1984], p. 218) :
"La Ford Motor Companiea formé la communautétechniqueaméricainesur les chemins
de la productionde masse"(p. 261), œ que confirme pour sapart R. Nelson [1990], p. 5.
Au demeurant, l'exemple sera copié et amendé dans un grand nombre de pays
industrialisés.Par contre, l'innovation salariale ne semblepas avoir connu, tout au moins
immédiatement,le mêmesuccèsque la chaînede montage.En effet, le passagedu local au
global est alors beaucoupplus complexepuisque les avantagesd'une politique de hauts
salairesne peuventpas être totalementappropriéspar chacunedes entreprises,ce qui crée
l'équivalent des configurationsdes jeux JO, JI ou 12 ou encore d'une situation de type
dilemme du prisonnier,
Cette conclusion est confortéepar une approcheplus analytique, utilisant les
théoriesmodernesde la relation salariale(Encadré3). Les théoriesdu salaired'efficience
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