Effect - Knowledge on Line

Effects-based Operations:
An Overview
Dr. Maris “Buster” McCrabb
(757) 508-8735
Buster@dmmventures.com
1
Overview
•
•
•
•
•
Introduction
Definitions
Models
ATD Technologies
EBO in Operation ALLIED FORCE
2
Effects-Based Operations
Plan
Disrupt
Delivery of POL
Destroy Bridge 4
Effect
Destroy Bridge 6
Tasks
…desired behavioral outcomes.
Bridge 4 Destroyed
Indicators
Global
Situation
Awareness
Air
Objectives
Air
Tasks
Air & Space
Control
Force
Support
L
E
V
E
L
Bridge 6 Destroyed
A
N
A
L
Y
S
I
S
CRISIS
Physical effects that lead to…
T
A
S
K
Now
Force
Application
Force
Enhancement
3
Effects-Based Operations
"Effects based operations is a methodology for planning,
executing and assessing operations to attain the effects required
to achieve desired national security objectives.“
AFDD 1
EBO
EBO…
…
••is
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••supports
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••utilizes
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Management
The challenge is predicting & assessing what physical actions
produce the desired behavioral effects over some period of time
4
Comparison of Effects-Based, Objectives-Based
and Targets-Based Operations
Target-Based (TBO)
Effects-Based
• ID enemy entities, destroy them
• Focus: physical effects at target level
• Looks at 1st and 2nd order effects only
• No dynamic assessment
• No explicit timing considerations
Objectives-Based (OBO)
Objectives-Based
(Strategies-To Task)
Target-Based
(Strategies-to-Task)
• Strategies at one level become objectives for next
• Focus: objectives at every level
• Considers linkages between objectives and
strategies to achieve those objectives
• No dynamic assessment
• No explicit timing considerations
Effects-Based (EBO)
• Address causality between actions and effects
• Focus: desired effects (physical and behavioral)
• Encompass both target and objective-based methods
• Models the enemy-as-a-system w/adversary reaction
• Considers Direct, Indirect, Complex (synergistic),
Cumulative & Cascading effects
• Timing explicitly considered
5
• “Overcoming” mechanism stated & assessed
Definitions
•
No doctrinal template in approved Joint doctrine
–
•
•
Physical => Behavioral
–
destroy (damage), disrupt (Kosovo), degrade, dislocate, decapitate,
divert, delay (isolate), deny (halt), deceive, defend, deter (D11)
–
coerce: punish, threaten (George, Schelling)
Historically and theoretically behavioral most important but hardest
–
•
USAF Doctrine has rudimentary definitions
therefore, traditionally military operations focus on physical effects
Major problems with behavioral effects:
–
–
–
causality between action & effect
observability of effect
uncertainty of intervening variables
6
AFDD 2-1 Definitions
•
•
•
•
Direct Effect
Indirect Effect
“Effects” described
Limitations:
– Precise definitions of “effects”
– Effects versus Objectives
– Conflating Mechanism
– Connections between Direct & Indirect Effects
– Complex or Cascading Effects
7
AFDD 2-1 Definitions
•
Direct Effect: “Result of actions with no intervening
effect or mechanism between act and outcome.
Direct effects are usually immediate and easily
recognizable.” (AKA 1st order effect)
•
Indirect Effect: “Result created through an
intermediate effect or mechanism to produce the
final outcome,which may be physical or
psychological in nature. Indirect effects tend to be
delayed,and may be difficult to recognize.” (AKA 2nd,
3rd,…, n-order effects)
8
Effect
•
A result from some action
– Assumes a causal connection
– “IF x THEN y” is a statement of (direct) effect
•
Point of View dependent
Effect
Effect
Cause
Action
Action
AFDD 2-1
EBO CONOPS
9
Mechanism
•
•
Actions Cause Results (Effects)
Mechanism explains cause
–
•
Rationale explains purpose (Commander’s Intent)
IF (x; action) THEN (y; result) BECAUSE (a, b, … ; mechanism)
–
Uncertainty in action, result and cause suggest a probabilitybased approach (Bayes)
•
Clausewitz: if you defeat an enemy’s fielded force, then a rational
leader will submit because his country is undefended.
•
Douhet: if you terrorize the population, then a rational leader will
submit because the populace will rise up, rebel, and force
submission.
10
Mechanism continued
•
Slessor: if you interdict infrastructure or supply, then
fielded forces will be less combat capable, making
them easier to defeat which leads to…an undefended
country.
•
Schelling: if you threaten things leadership value, then
they will submit rather than lose those things.
•
Warden: if you isolate leadership, then they are
prevented from doing something which would thwart
our will. They submit because the imposed paralysis
prevents them from doing otherwise.
11
Mechanism finished
•
In reality these are few, if any, single mechanisms at
work.
– Direct and indirect effects combine to form complex
and cumulative effects
– Effects cascade for good or ill
•
Predicting, then assessing, how physical actions
spawn behavioral effects (I.e., results from actions) is
the major challenge.
12
Actions & Tasks
•
Tasks are work (actions) to be done
– Operationally, tasks are normally assigned to
tactical units (squadrons, brigades, CVBGs, etc.)
•
EBO theory is agnostic to the originator of action
Effect (Result)
Mechanism (Cause)
Action (Tasks)
13
Direct & Indirect Effects
•
•
Direct Effects result from (caused by) direct actions.
•
Indirect actions may be the result of a (previous) direct
effect.
Indirect Effects result from (caused by) indirect
actions.
Direct Effect (Result)
Direct Effect (Result) & Indirect Action
Mechanism (Cause)
Mechanism (Cause)
Direct Action (Tasks)
Indirect Effect (Result)
14
Complex & Cumulative Effects
•
Complex Effects are a combination of effects, either
direct or indirect, at an instant in time & space.
– Mechanism explains how these effect combine
•
Cumulative effects are complex effects as viewed over
some time interval.
– Effects do have persistence, though that generally
varies
Complex/Cumulative Effect (Result)
Mechanism (Cause)
Direct Effect (Result)
Indirect Effect (Result)
Indirect Effect (Result)
15
Cascading Effects
•
Cascading effects are direct, indirect, complex or
cumulative effects that ripple through a system
– Captures the notions of an acceleration or a
multiplier effect (from economics)
– Requires a systems perspective: relationships,
dependencies, or connections between elements
•
Cascading effects can be vicious or virtuous but
which they are is point of view (POV) dependent
– What’s bad for the bad guys is good from our POV
but bad from theirs
– In a HUMRO, what’s good for the object of our
attention is good from our POV and theirs
16
Effects-Based Plan Representation
EBO Terms
Objective
Effect Desired
(Isolate the Battlefield)
(Deny Access)
• direct effect
• indirect effect
• complex effect
• cumulative effect
Indicator
Task/Activity
(Mechanism)
17
Indicators
•
•
Are not effects
Better to be observable then not but “not seen” does
not mean “not there”
Traffic Density
Win the War
Acceleration of
Straggler Count
Units in Bivouac
Destroy Will
Stop Second Echelon
River Clear
Carpet Bomb
Drop Leaflets
(Isolate the Battlefield)
Prevent River
Crossing
Destroy
Fuel Res.
(Deny Access)
Objective/Task/Activity
Effect Desired
Indicator
Destroy
Br1
DMPI 1
DMPI 2
Destroy
Br2
18
Strategy: Definitions
•
The art & science of employing the armed forces…to
secure the objectives of national policy by the
application of force or the threat of force. [JP 1-02]
•
•
•
A means1 to accomplish an end. [AFDD 2-1]
•
1
The use of engagements for the object of the war. [Clausewitz]
The art of distributing & applying military means2 to
fulfill the ends of policy. [B.H. Liddell Hart]
A plan of action designed in order to achieve some
end; a purpose together with a system of measures for
its accomplishment. [RADM J.C. Wylie]
tool, implement
2
resources
19
Strategy, Objectives & Effects
•
Goal, Strategic Aim, End-State: the realm of policy—the decisive
results
–
•
An end-state is the set of required conditions that achieve the
strategic objectives. [JP 3-0]
Operational Art: determines where, when & for what purposes
[why2]…forces will be employed
–
Use resources efficiently & effectively to achieve strategic
objectives [JP 3-0]
–
Defines the parameters of operations (restraints & constraints)
[FMFM 1-1]
•
2
Effects: the result (outcomes) of direct actions (e.g., missions) and
“indirect” actions (e.g., functions) [AFDD 2-1]
rationale
20
Ends, Ways, Means, Risk
•
Ends: What military conditions must be produced…to
achieve the strategic goal?
•
Ways: What sequence of actions is most likely to
produce [those] condition(s)?
•
Means2: How should resources…be applied to
accomplish that sequence of actions?
•
Risk: What is the likely cost…in performing that
sequence of actions
[JP 3-0]
21
Strategy, CONOPS & COA
•
A verbal or graphic statement, in broad outline, of a
commander’s assumptions or intent in regard to an
operation….It is included primarily for additional
clarity of purpose. [JP 1-02]
– Commander’s Intent: end-state, purpose, method &
risk
•
A plan that would accomplish a mission. Includes
CONOPS. Basis for the development of an OPLAN or
OPORD. [JP 1-02]
– Tasks—work to be done—given to tactical
(engagement level) units to accomplish.
22
Models
23
Basic Model
Actions cause..
Attack
Fielded Forces &
Selected
Infrastructure
Mechanism explains Cause..
MECHANISM
Fielded Forces
Isolated; Supply &
Logistics Reduced
..indirect effects
MECHANISM
…direct effects and...
Key Requirements:
1. Predictive Models (e.g., IPB, Adversarial)
2. Common Ontology
3. Robust MS&A (e.g., Wargaming)
BSA
Losses
Advantage
Over BiH
MECHANISM
Bosnian
Serbs
Accede to
NATO’s
Demands
24
JIPB, ONA, PBA & EBO
ONA: JIPB + COA Options (JFHQ Con. Of Employment)
PBA: JIPB + ISR Planning + ISR Management (PBA CONOPS)
FUNCTIONS SUPPORTED BY DATA FUSION
Level 0
Define
Environment
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Process
Describe Object
Situation
Impact Determine
Refinement
EvaluateAssessment Refinement
Refinement
Environment’s
Adversary
Adversary
Effects
COAs
Sub-object
Data Assoc.
& Estimation
Entities
(Shallow
Extraction)
Relationships
(Intermediate
Extraction)
Events
(Intermediate,
Deep Extraction)
Increased Emphasis
On PMESI SofS Analysis
Discovered
& Inferred
Knowledge
OER
Effects-based
operations is the
‘engine’ that drives
IPB, dynamic C2,
and ISR
management.
FUNCTIONS SUPPORTED BY EBO
Monitor
Assess
Databases
&
Sensors
Plan
Execute
AF/XO IPB White Paper
Increased Emphasis
On Predicting Behaviors
Supports JP 3-56.1 Stage I: Operational Environment Research
25
Working Together
JBI
JBI Finds What’s
EBO Requests
Known and Tasks
While the IPB process is sequential,
Actionable Information
Generation of New
it is also continuous and cyclical. Information
EBO
Fusion
Fusion Engines & Fuselets Generate New
Information & Pass to EBO
26
EBO Macro Model
2. Operations &
Anticipated
Responses
Predicted Effects
Campaign
1. Desired
Behavior
Plan
Campaign
Assess
(COG/TS Level)
Observed Effects
Combat
Combat
3. Actual
Operations
(Target Set /
Target / DMPI
Level)
4. Actual
Responses
(COG/Target System
Level)
27
Semantic Network
28
Effects Based Operations (DTO IS.71)
Approach to Modeling EBO
JP 3-56.1 Campaign Planning Model
Warden’s “Enemy As A System” Model
Infrastructure’s COGs
TGT Analysis
Objectives
Objective
Mechanism
COGs
Leadership
System Essentials
Infrastructure
Population
Forces
Missions
Strategy
Resources
COA
COA
Tasks
COG Analysis
Objectives
Mechanism
COA
Strategy
TGT Analysis
Resources
COA
Objectives
Mechani sm
Resources
Target Systems
Leadership
System Essentials
Infrastructure
Population
Forces
Strategy
The System Essentials of Infrastructure’s COGs
COA
Target Sets
Leadership
System Essentials
Infrastructure
Population
Forces
Fig. 7: Modified JP 3-56.1 Campaign Planning Model
Barlow’s “National Elements of Value” Model
6
Sensory Boundary
5
7
McCrabb’s “Enemy Reactions” Model
2
Adaptation Space
4
1
3
1. Leadership, 2. Industry, 3. Armed Forces, 4. Population,
5. Transportation, 6. Communications, 7. Alliances
Size = Importance of NEV to National Leadership
Thickness = Importance of Connection to other NEV
Could
Internal
Model
Internal Model
&
&
Library
Library
Intervening
Variables
Can
”Target"
”Target" Should
Input
Process
Output
Outcome
Campaign Model
Stage I: OER (IPB)
TGT Analysis
Campaign/
Objectives
Objectives
Mechanism
Resources
COA
COG Analysis
Objectives
Mechanism
Mission/Activities
Strategy
COA
Force/Tasks
COA
Strategy
TGT Analysis
Resources
COA
Objectives
Mechanism
Resources
Strategy
COA
Campaign Assessment
Combat Assessment
Modified from JP 3-56.1
30
Barlow’s NEVs
Stage III: COG Identification
31
Warden’s “Rings” (Stage III)
Infrastructure’s COGs
COGs
Leadership
System Essentials
Infrastructure
Population
Forces
Leadership
System Essentials
Infrastructure
Population
Forces
The System Essentials of Infrastructure’s COGs
Leadership
System Essentials
Infrastructure
Population
Forces
32
McCrabb’s Agent Adaptation Space
(Stage I-V)
Sensory Boundary
Internal
InternalModel
Model
&
&
Library
Library
Adaptation Space
Intervening
Variables
Agent
Agent
Input
Process
Output
Outcome
33
The (Almost) Complete Puzzle
(Stage I-V)
Objectives/
Desired Effects
(Stage II)
Commander’s Intent
IPB Tools
& Processes
Bra
EBO/DTT
T&Ps
nch
Wargaming
Stage V
COA Selected
Enemy COA vs.
Friendly COA
(Stage IV)
ch
n
a
Br
34
Effects-Based Planning
Everything Starts from Commander’s Intent….
Identify Potential
Strategic COGs
Identify Linked
Operational Systems
Identify Specific
Desired Effects
Identify “Targets”
Generate COA
Supports JP 3-56.1 Stages II-V
Modified from Dave Deptula’s “Firing for Effect”
35
Effects & Operational Art
What
=
Conditions (End-States)
Indicators
Events
Results (Effects)
Cause (Mechanism)
Why
How
Tasks + With, Who,
Where, When
= COA
Strategy (Ways, How): A Plan of Actions (Tasks)
that employ resources (means, with)
To accomplish Ends (What)
Actions (Direct and/or Indirect)
=
36
Planning (Stage V)
What
=
Results (Effects)
Cause (Mechanism)
Why
Indicators
(Measures
Of Success)
Actions (Direct and/or Indirect)
How
=
Conditions (End-States)
Events
Tasks + With, Who,
Where, When
= COA
37
Execution & Assessment
Complex Effects
Cascading Effects
Effect Achieved
Direct Effects
Indirect Effects
Indicators
Cause
Yes
Effect Desired?
Cause
No
Direct Actions
Previous Effects
Problem?
Opportunity?
Re-Plan
Other & Previous Actions
38
Adversarial Models
Advanced
AdvancedModels
Modelsofof
Complex,
Dynamic
Complex, Dynamic
Decision
DecisionMaking
Makinginin
AADM/IO
AADM/IO
Environment
Environment
Selection
of
Selectionof
Application
ApplicationArea
Area
Characterization
Characterizationof
of
Application
Application
Environment
Environment
Research
Research
Specifications
Specifications
Model
Components,
Links, Processing
to Validate
Applications
Applicationsofof
Human-in-the-Loop
Human-in-the-Loop
Investigations
Investigations
Measures of
Validation
MOPs
Necessary
Characteristics for
Investigations
Vulnerable
Process
Components Characteristics of
the Systems
Candidate Displays
Characterizations
of Human
Improved
Improved
Dependencies &
Understanding
Understandingofof
Vulnerabilities
Cultural
Cultural
Dependencies
Dependencies&&
Differences
&&
Differences
Vulnerabilities
of
Vulnerabilities of
Effects
Effects
Human
Dependencies &
HumanAiding
AidingSystem
System
Potential
Vulnerabilities
Potential
Needing Support Candidate Displays
Countermeasures
Countermeasures
MOPs
Display Solutions
Theoretical Understanding
to Support Displays
Enhanced Operational Understanding
to Improve Subsequent Design
Characteristics
Characteristicsofof
Improved
ImprovedHuman
Human
Performance
Performance
Improved
Improved
Information
Information
Representations
Representations&&
Multimodal
Multimodal
Displays
Displays
Integration
Integration
Prototype
Prototype
Development
Development&&
Tests
Tests
Requirements
Requirementsfor
for
Optimal
OptimalDesign
Design&&
Employment
Employment ofof
DF-based
DF-basedDAs
DAs
39
Big Picture
•
•
•
•
Enemy’s Will
EBO ATD seeks an
(Leadership)
integrated set of strategy,
Limited Occurrences ofEnemy
wargaming, COG analysis,
Collateral Damage Military
and campaign assessment
Will Enemy
Compounding
Political
tools.
environmental factors
Doctrinally sound; not
dogmatically rigid
Support EBO planning &
assessment plus
objectives-based or
targets-based assessment
Major Theater War =>
Humanitarian Relief; lethal
& nonlethal; kinetic & nonkinetic (e.g., Info Ops)
Resolve
Resolve of
Enemy’s
population
Effects
Enemy Military
CR’s, CV’s & CC’s
Enemy Regional and
International
Support
Enemy
National
Coalition
infrastructure
Unity
Physical
Each vector needs a
damage
consistent scale or
(Enemy’s Available
Militaryrelationship
Worth)
traceable
40
EBO Toolkit of the Future
for Dynamic Tasking
Execution
Planning
Campaign Planning
& Assessment
Combat Execution
& Assessment
Commander’s Intent
EIPB
Observations
Combat Assessment:
Advanced Sensor Fusion
Targeting
(JTT)
Special
Instructions
ISR Assistant
Indicators
Strategy
Development:
Campaign
- COA Develop Blue COAs
Assessment
- COG Analysis
- Templates
Dynamic
Aerospace
Execution
Order
Target Set Analysis
Executing
Units
MIDB
Blue COAs
Operations
Controller
Wargaming
* Reference AFRL/AC2ISRC CONOPS
for Effects-Based Operations
Asset
Sourcing
Asset
Pairing
Offensive
Controller
AODB
Defensive
Controller
TACS
41
Controller
EBO Key Products
• Strategy Development Tool
Strategy Development Tool
– produces blue COAs
– tightly integrates effects, center of
gravity/target system analysis & strategy
identification
Objectives
Objectives Determination
Determination and
and
COG
COG && Target
Target Systems
Systems Analysis
Analysis
– cross center of gravity interactions
– strategy & mission templates
• Campaign Assessment Tool
– predicts the probability of achieving
Blue COA
Probability of Blue
COA success
Campaign Assessment Tool
Commander’s intent for a blue COA
– model plan’s cause/effects relations
for a given campaign over time
– tradeoff analysis/drill down capability
42
Strategy Development Tool Overview
File Edit Tools Templates Missions Show Help
Legend
Objective
Effect
(Isolate the Battlefield)
(Deny Access)
Effect
Indicator
Task
Mechanism
Task/Activity
43
Campaign Assessment Tool Overview
Build A Causal Model
Compile to a
Bayes Net
Analyze Results
(Isolate the Battlefield)
(Deny
Access)
44
EBO Approach to Homeland Defense
Financial
Lead To
Diplomacy
Indicator
Blue
Actions
Red
Decisions
Military Action
Influence Net
Indicator
Red
Decides to
negotiate
EXECUTABLE MODEL
COAs
Red Decides to
Terminate
Hostilities
(actions/ times)
Red Decides to
use WMD
GMU
George Mason University
Probability Profiles
SDT:
ATD vs. Objective System
Anticipated Capabilities
Required Capabilities
•
Limited coverage of
strategies, JFC/JFACC
missions; Limited IW
•
•
Covers all strategy options
•
Limited COG/TS analysis; no
Mission Analysis/Situation
Development
•
Covers all JFACC missions
(e.g., CA, SA, CL, etc.)
•
No COA analysis/comparison
capability
•
•
Incorporates lethal/nonlethal,
kinetic/non-kinetic
applications of force
No JAOP development
support past COA option
development
•
•
Supports Joint Air Estimate
Process through JAOP
development (JP 3-30)
No CS (e.g., Logistics,
Mobility), TACS, or Space
considerations/Risk Analysis
•
Supports JFACC Daily
Guidance planning (JP 3-30)
Covers all JFC missions (e.g.,
HUMRO, PK/PE, etc.)
46
CAT:
ATD vs. Objective System
Anticipated Capabilities
Required Capabilities
•
Outcome assessment at
Force and Campaign levels
•
Predictive assessment ISO
COA development
•
Limited ability to incorporate
evidence
•
•
Complete drilldown,
predictive and reconstructive
assessment
Assessment of outcomes ISO
Engagement, Battle, Force
and Campaign execution
•
Value-of-information ISO
collection management and
branch planning
Reconstructive assessment
of outcomes ISO plan
refinement
•
Incorporation of all-source
information
•
Drilldown to action, causes,
and mechanism level
•
47
Summary
•
Definitional issue only a start
– No approved dictionary let alone glossary or
encyclopedia
•
Ontology common to all applications
– A common task but a common ontology server
– Basis for library
•
•
Not just EBO: IPB (Fusion), JBI, IW, TUT, TST, etc.
Shared language essential to shared understanding
– Shared understanding alone insufficient
48
Operation ALLIED FORCE
49
Operation Allied Force EBO Example (1)
(from DOD AAR)
Milosevic accedes to NATO’s conditions
(total Desired Effect)
Air Attacks
Solidarity of NATO
(Military Effect)
(Diplomatic Effect)
Russian Diplomacy
(Diplomatic Effect)
Buildup of NATO Ground Power
(Military-Diplomatic Effect)
Kosovar Albanian Attacks
Sanctions, etc.
(Military Effect)
(Economic Effect)
Expanded on Next Slide
50
Operation Allied Force EBO Example (2)
(from DOD AAR)
Milosevic accedes to NATO’s conditions
(total Desired Effect)
Air Attacks on Strategic Targets
Air Attacks on Fielded Forces Targets
Air Attacks on National C2 Targets
Air Attacks on Military-Industrial Targets
Expanded on Next Slide
51
Operation Allied Force EBO Example (3)
(from DOD AAR)
Milosevic accedes to NATO’s conditions
(total Desired Effect)
Degraded National C2
Desired
Military
Effects
Degraded Ability
to C2 FRY Forces
Attacks on Infrastructure
Degraded Ability
to Resupply Forces
Freedom to Attack
(e.g., bridges)
Physical
Actions
Desired
Political
Effects
Attacks on Electrical Power
(e.g., plants)
Degraded IADS
Attack Serbian AF
(e.g., aircraft, airbases)
Avoid Serbian SHORAD
(e.g., fly above)
52