Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016)
Transcription
Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016)
SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) Shared Research Inc. has produced this report by request from the company discussed in the report. The aim is to provide an “owner’s manual” to investors. We at Shared Research Inc. make every effort to provide an accurate, objective, and neutral analysis. In order to highlight any biases, we clearly attribute our data and findings. We will always present opinions from company management as such. Our views are ours where stated. We do not try to convince or influence, only inform. We appreciate your suggestions and feedback. Write to us at sr_inquiries@sharedresearch.jp or find us on Bloomberg. Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Contents Recent Updates .......................................................................................................4 Highlights ............................................................................................................4 Trends & Outlook .................................................................................................4 Business ............................................................................................................... 10 Business Description ........................................................................................... 10 Strategy ............................................................................................................ 24 Historical Financial Statements................................................................................ 28 Summary .......................................................................................................... 28 Income Statement.............................................................................................. 54 Balance Sheet .................................................................................................... 56 Cash Flow Statement .......................................................................................... 58 Other Information ................................................................................................. 59 History .............................................................................................................. 59 News & Topics ................................................................................................... 59 Top Management ............................................................................................... 61 Employees ......................................................................................................... 61 Major Shareholders ............................................................................................ 62 Dividends .......................................................................................................... 62 Investor Relations .............................................................................................. 62 By The Way ....................................................................................................... 62 Company Profile ................................................................................................. 63 About Shared Research Inc. ................................................................................... 64 Disclaimer............................................................................................................. 64 http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 2/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Income Statement (million yen) Total Sales YoY Gross Profit YoY GPM Operating Profit FY02/10 Cons. 248,634 FY02/11 Cons. 244,550 FY02/12 Cons. 242,402 FY02/13 Cons. 258,369 FY02/14 Cons. 279,073 FY02/15 Est. 290,700 4.2% -4.7% -1.6% -0.9% 6.6% 8.0% 114,176 115,825 115,113 124,490 129,959 -3.5% 45.9% 1.4% 47.4% -0.6% 47.5% 8.1% 48.2% 4.4% 46.6% 4,383 8,928 10,953 11,192 9,422 12,300 -51.8% 1.8% 103.7% 3.7% 22.7% 4.5% 2.2% 4.3% -15.8% 3.4% 30.5% 4.2% Recurring Profit 6,120 10,497 13,329 13,405 12,211 13,700 YoY RPM -2.6% 2.5% 71.5% 4.3% 27.0% 5.5% 0.6% 5.2% -8.9% 4.4% 12.2% 4.7% Net Income 2,187 2,722 3,529 4,503 4,658 5,400 0.9% 24.5% 1.1% 29.6% 1.5% 27.6% 1.7% 3.5% 1.7% 15.9% 1.9% 172,922 29.7 24.0 1,103.0 34.4 24.0 YoY OPM YoY Net Margin Per Share Data Number of Shares (Thousand) 172,922 172,922 172,922 172,922 EPS 14.0 17.4 22.5 28.7 Dividend Per Share 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 Book Value Per Share 999.0 1,002.3 995.1 1,043.6 Balance Sheet (Million Yen) Cash and Equivalents 34,330 30,939 33,192 24,677 Total Current Assets 100,680 95,544 98,895 100,321 Tangible Fixed Assets, net 89,741 86,622 82,987 86,861 Other Fixed Assets 51,335 52,729 51,561 64,138 Intangible Assets 50,811 46,745 43,495 35,457 Total Fixed Assets 191,888 186,097 178,044 186,458 Total Assets 292,568 281,642 276,939 286,779 Accounts Payable 35,961 32,703 33,238 33,512 Short-Term Debt 35,697 30,886 29,865 47,581 Total Current Liabilities 90,929 82,677 84,091 100,740 Long-Term Debt 24,571 22,665 19,730 1,573 Total Fixed Liabilities 43,475 40,220 35,545 20,666 Total Liabilities 134,404 122,898 119,636 121,407 Net Assets 158,164 158,744 157,302 165,372 Interest-Bearing Debt 60,268 53,551 49,595 49,154 Cash Flow Statement (million yen) Operating Cash Flow 14,057 11,206 13,180 10,137 Investment Cash Flow -25 -5,151 -1,961 -10,682 Financing Cash Flow -4,889 -9,271 -7,449 -7,848 Financial Ratios ROA 0.7% 0.9% 1.3% 1.6% ROE 1.4% 1.7% 2.2% 2.8% Equity Ratio 54.1% 56.4% 56.8% 57.7% Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ 27,375 110,349 102,878 65,926 34,276 203,081 313,430 38,305 44,956 101,009 14,051 37,391 138,401 175,028 59,007 13,361 -14,300 2,121 1.6% 2.8% 55.8% Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 3/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Recent Updates Highlights On April 4, 2014, Onward Holdings announced FY02/14 results and monthly sales data for February and March; please see the results section for further details. On February 4, 2013, the company released January monthly sales data: please see the monthly trends section for further details. For corporate releases and developments more than three months old, please refer to the News & Topics section. Trends & Outlook Monthly Trends Onward Kashiyama Monthly Sales FY02/15 (YoY) Mar Apr Men's 16% Women's 9% Children's 10% Kimonos -17% Other 8% Total 10% FY02/14 (YoY) Mar Apr Men's 2% -8% Women's 10% 1% Children's 9% -7% Kimonos -11% -11% Other -1% -8% Total 7% -2% May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct May 1% 6% -3% 19% -9% 4% Jun 1% 10% 4% -12% 2% 7% Jul -11% 0% 2% -23% 0% 3% Aug 7% 8% 9% -6% 11% 8% Sep 4% 2% 2% -14% -1% 2% Oct -3% -5% -2% -23% -11% -5% Nov Dec Jan Feb FY 16% 9% 10% -17% 8% 10% Nov Dec Jan 0% 8% 3% 0% 5% 7% 0% 4% -1% -14% -17% -15% 0% 5% -1% 0% 5% 5% Feb 3% 0% 0% -17% -3% 1% FY 0% 3% 1% -12% -2% 2% Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 4/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Quarterly Trends & Results (million yen) Sales YoY GP YoY Q1 67,581 10.1% 33,886 11.4% FY02/13 Q2 Q3 53,305 70,479 1.9% 2.5% 23,863 36,649 3.2% 1.4% Q4 67,004 11.8% 30,092 18.3% Q1 72,174 6.8% 35,561 4.9% FY02/14 Q2 Q3 60,145 73,122 12.8% 3.8% 26,884 36,413 12.7% -0.6% Q4 73,632 9.9% 31,101 3.4% GPM 50.1% 44.8% 52.0% 44.9% 49.3% 44.7% 49.8% 42.2% SG&A YoY 27,669 7.5% 26,923 2.8% 29,102 10.3% 29,604 14.5% 29,170 5.4% 29,943 11.2% 29,621 1.8% 31,803 7.4% SG&A / Sales 40.9% 50.5% 41.3% 44.2% 40.4% 49.8% 40.5% 43.2% YoY 6,216 32.9% -3,059 - 7,547 -22.8% 488 - 6,390 2.8% -3,059 - 6,792 -10.0% -701 - OP OPM 9.2% - 10.7% 0.7% 8.9% - 9.3% - YoY 6,029 12.2% -2,307 - 8,038 -17.4% 1,645 45.3% 7,184 19.2% -2,413 - 7,100 -11.7% 340 -79.3% RP RPM 8.9% - 11.4% 2.5% 10.0% - 9.7% 0.5% YoY 2,815 30.4% -2,293 - 4,114 -3.9% -133 - 3,841 36.4% -2,190 - 4,106 -0.2% -1,099 - NPM 4.2% - 5.8% - 5.3% - 5.6% - NI FY02/14 % of FY FY Est. 100.7% 277,000 7.2% 73.0% 12,900 15.3% 82.5% 14,800 10.4% 93.2% 5,000 11.0% 4.7% 5.3% 1.8% Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research Comment on seasonality. The company’s quarterly sales and profits fluctuate significantly due to the timing of seasonal bargain sales. Q2 includes the summer sales period of July, and the proportion of merchandise sold at normal prices is low in August as bargain sales continue while stores convert to new autumn lineups. As a result, profitability is likely to be severely affected—Q2 operating profit was negative in both FY02/09 and FY02/10. In a similar manner, Q4 profit is affected by the winter bargain sale in January and by the revaluation loss recorded at fiscal year-end. FY02/14 Results (announced on April 4, 2014; please refer to the preceding tables) For the full year, sales were 279.1 billion yen (+8.0% YoY), operating profit was 9.4 billion yen (-15.8% YoY), and recurring profit was 12.2 billion yen (-8.9% YoY). Net income was 4.7 billion yen (+3.5% YoY), thanks to extraordinary profits such as 891 million yen on the sale of investment securities. According to the company, full-year performance highlights were as follows. Consolidated operating profit was down by 1.8 billion yen YoY. Breaking this down at the subsidiary level: Onward Holdings and Onward Kashiyama: Operating profit rose by 494 million yen; JOSEPH: Operating profit rose by 439 million yen; GIBO’ Co: Operating profit rose by 131 million yen; Jil Sander: Operating profit fell by 1.4 billion yen; Birz Group: Operating profit fell by 672 million yen. Onward Holdings and Onward Kashiyama Sales of 159.7 billion yen (up 2.2% YoY); operating profit of 11.5 billion yen (up 4.5% YoY) Onward Trading Sales of 15.5 billion yen (up 5.1% YoY); operating profit of 1.1 billion yen (up 4.3% YoY) Chacott Sales of 10.7 billion yen (up 1.7% YoY); operating profit of 573 million yen (down 23.1% YoY) Creative Yoko Sales of 7.0 billion yen (down 5.2% YoY); operating profit of 307 million yen (down 55.9% YoY) Birz Group http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 5/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Sales of 6.1 billion yen (down 14.9% YoY); operating loss of 684 million yen (vs. an operating loss of 12 million yen in FY02/13) Island Sales of 8.4 billion yen (down 0.9% YoY); operating profit of 1.2 billion yen (down 17.5% YoY) Across Transport Sales of 11.8 billion yen (up 2.6% YoY); operating profit of 181 million yen (down 6.7% YoY) JOSEPH Sales of 11.8 billion yen (up 34.1% YoY); operating profit of 97 million yen (vs. an operating loss of 342 million yen in FY02/13) GIBO’Co Sales of 21.0 billion yen (up 42.3% YoY); operating profit of 932 million yen (up 16.4% YoY) Jil Sander Sales of 13.5 billion yen (up 29.6% YoY); operating loss of 1.3 billion yen (vs. an operating loss of 711 million yen in FY02/13) Domestic Onward Kashiyama sales grew at a healthy pace in 1H, particularly in core brands. Menswear also moved toward recovery. However, sales fell as inclement weather, such as typhoons hit during October, which is the peak time for consumption in 2H. Sales were also negatively affected when consumer appetites cooled following the decision to go ahead with the consumption tax hike. Other domestic subsidiaries were similarly affected. E-commerce sales were robust, outperforming full-year targets at Onward Kashiyama and other subisidiaries. Sales at Onward Kashiyama core brands were as follows: Nijyusanku: +2.5% YoY; Kumikyoku: +9.4% YoY; ICB: +1.0% YoY; Jiyuku: +3.4% YoY. Overseas The JOSEPH Group reported strong results in Europe. The GIBO’ Co group also increased sales and built a stable base for future profits. However, results weakened at the Jil Sander group due to upfront investments with an eye toward future growth. Sales rose but profits fell in Asia and North America—the result of political and economic uncertainty coupled with investment for future expansion. For details on previous quarterly and annual results, please refer to the Historical Financial Statements section. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 6/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Full-Year (FY02/15) Outlook FY02/15 Forecast (million yen) Sales 1H Act. 132,319 FY02/14 2H Act. 146,754 FY Act. 279,073 1H Est. 136,500 FY02/15 2H Est. 154,200 FY Est. 290,700 3.2% 5.1% 4.2% YoY 9.5% 6.7% 8.0% CoGS 69,874 79,240 149,113 10.7% 12.0% 11.4% 62,445 67,514 129,959 YoY GPM % 8.1% 47.2% 1.2% 46.0% 4.4% 46.6% SG&A 59,113 61,424 120,537 YoY SG&A/Sales 8.3% 44.7% 4.6% 41.9% 6.4% 43.2% Operating Profit 3,331 6,091 9,422 4,000 8,300 12,300 5.5% 2.5% -24.2% 4.2% -15.8% 3.4% 20.1% 2.9% 36.3% 5.4% 30.5% 4.2% YoY Gross Profit YoY OPM % Recurring Profit 4,771 7,440 12,211 4,800 8,900 13,700 YoY 28.2% -23.2% -8.9% 0.6% 19.6% 12.2% Net Income 1,651 3,007 4,658 1,700 3,700 5,400 216.3% -24.5% 3.4% 3.0% 23.0% 15.9% YoY Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research Future Outlook Medium-Term Plan FY02/12 FY02/15 Targets (million yen) (% of Total) (% of Total) Vs. FY02/12 Sales 242,402 350,000 +44% Existing Business Total 257,685 100% 346,000 100% +34% Domestic Total 213,730 83% 261,000 75% +22% Onward Kashiyama 149,985 58% 180,000 52% +20% Other Domestic 63,745 25% 81,000 23% +27% Overseas Total 43,955 17% 85,000 25% +93% Europe 34,170 13% 59,000 17% +73% Asia 6,895 3% 21,000 6% +205% US 2,890 1% 5,000 1% +73% New Business + M&A 35,000 Intercompany Eliminations -15,283 -31,000 Recurring Profit 13,329 28,000 +110% Existing Business Total 100% 29,200 100% +81% Domestic Total 92% 22,000 75% +49% Onward Kashiyama 16,000 55% +42% Other Domestic 6,000 21% +74% Overseas Total 8% 7,200 25% +433% Europe 5,000 17% +350% Asia 1,700 6% +343% US 500 2% ↑ New Business + M&A 2,800 Intercompany Eliminations -4,000 ROE 2.3% 8.0% Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 7/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 On April 9, 2012, the company announced its New Medium-Term Three-Year Plan (from FY02/13 to FY02/15). The targets in the final year of the plan, FY02/15, call for sales of 350.0 billion yen (up 43% on FY02/12), operating profit of 26.5 billion yen (up 99%), recurring profit of 28.0 billion yen (up 110%), and ROE of 8% (compared to 2.3% in FY02/12). Based on the company’s forecasts for FY02/14, SR believes it is realistic to expect the company to achieve its targets one year later than planned. It appears that the company will strengthen its financial base through investment and other methods in FY02/13 and FY02/14, particularly in overseas markets, with the aim of reaping the rewards in FY02/15 and beyond. The company plans to increase the sales contribution from overseas operations from 17% in FY02/12 to 24% in FY02/15 for sales (from 8% to 25% [before eliminations] for recurring profit), by growing earnings there. In addition, the plan calls for sales of 35.0 billion yen and recurring profit of 2.8 billion yen by the end of FY02/15 from new businesses and acquisitions. The goodwill charges during the plan’s period are assumed in the region of 4.0 billion yen per year. The strategy to achieve these goals is as follows. (See also the Strategy section of this report). Onward Kashiyama Shift personnel from existing businesses to new businesses, allowing for lower cost expansion and more efficient existing cost structure. As the Japanese companies are generally reluctant to lay off people, this would serve as a soft restructuring. Develop channels other than the traditional department store channel and build a customer-oriented retail business. In the department store channel Onward depends on the department stores for point-of-sale information, substantially reducing its ability to respond to quickly shifting customer needs. “Stepping out” of this problem should allow incorporating consumer feedback and developing new dynamic brands, growing a true retail business. Step up the brand-focused management—accelerate the shift to larger brands (as opposed to a dispersed portfolio of many dozens of small “brandlets”), develop new brands, liquidate brands with little growth potential. Europe Seek to create an intermediate holding company, Onward Luxury Group, centered around GIBO’Co. This would be a catch-all apparel maker, manufacturing and selling European-style high-quality goods. Integrate the headquarters functions of GIBO’Co, JOSEPH, and Jil Sander and enhance GIBO’Co’s role as the group’s manufacturing platform. At the same time, expand wholesale sales through new license acquisitions and develop retail operations through new businesses. Focus investment in Jil Sander to boost the brand’s growth. Perfect the Collection line—which bears the name of the brand’s founder, Jil Sander—and develop the Jil Sander Navy line into a standalone brand. Open flagship stores to expand both retail and wholesale sales. Pursue more aggressive worldwide expansion at JOSEPH through new retail shop openings in Europe and North America and channel growth (wholesale and franchise network) in Europe, Russia, the Middle East, and Asia. North America From 2013, the company plans to develop its new J.PRESS USA line for both wholesale and retail operations. ICB has established an operations (planning) base for its Collection line in NY. In addition to opening specialty stores in department stores all over the U.S., particularly in Barney’s, it is also planning to open NY road-side stores. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 8/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Asia In manufacturing, establish a profitable production system, continuously working to develop in-house manufacturing and development capabilities, and lowering manufacturing costs, with an eye to expanding production in the ASEAN region. In sales, increase the size of existing stores and thus grow sales per store. At the same time, aggressively expand both geographically and by developing new brands. Make new businesses such as wholesale and e-commerce into material earnings contributors. In summary, SR Inc. understands that the strategies consists of two main components—grow new channels while maintaining the core domestic department store channel and grow overseas. Domestically, Onward wants to redeploy its personnel where its growth focus is—in “new distribution” and specialty store channels outside of department stores. The company is aware that it has not been terribly successful growing new brands outside its core department store apparel competence. It is therefore both serious about reassessing and reinforcing its existing business practices and keen to acquire companies that own brands with the established track record in shopping center and similar non department store channels. Overseas, the focus is on Europe and Asia. In Europe, the company wants, in a way, to build an upscale version of Onward Kashiyama—a successful integrated up-market apparel manufacturer/retailer. In Asia, it aims to primarily market its European and Japanese brands. Expanding manufacturing capability is another important component. In China, the company’s subsidiaries manufacture and sell apparel; the retail network counted over 250 stores at the end of FY02/12. Also, a locally designed brand is sold wholesale through distributors. In the near future the plan is to start selling European brands such as Jil Sander Navy. The company has commented that it is aware that achieving its new mid-term plan targets may not look easy but explained that the numbers were put together after careful deliberations and are seen internally as realistic. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 9/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Business Business Description Sales by Type (million yen) Men's YoY Women's YoY Children's YoY Other YoY Apparel Total YoY Total YoY FY02/09 Cons. 58,259 -13.9% 143,976 -9.8% 7,150 -7.1% 36,035 4.8% 245,421 -8.9% 261,005 -9.1% FY02/10 Cons. 53,460 -8.2% 137,707 -4.4% 6,505 -9.0% 36,508 1.3% 234,181 -4.6% 248,634 -4.7% FY02/11 Cons. 49,478 -7.4% 137,664 0.0% 6,417 -1.4% 36,178 -0.9% 229,738 -1.9% 244,550 -1.6% FY02/12 Cons. 48,124 -2.7% 137,126 -0.4% 6,369 -0.7% 35,912 -0.7% 227,532 -1.0% 242,402 -0.9% FY02/13 Cons. 49,631 3.1% 148,950 8.6% 6,691 5.1% 37,402 4.1% 242,675 6.7% 258,369 6.6% Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research Onward Kashiyama/Sales by Type, Channel (million yen) By Apparel Type Men's YoY Women's YoY Children's YoY Kimonos YoY Other YoY Total YoY By Distribution Channel Department Stores YoY New Distribution Channels YoY Specialty Stores YoY Chain Stores YoY Others YoY Total YoY FY02/09 FY02/10 FY02/11 FY02/12 FY02/13 44,386 -12.3% 120,749 -7.1% 7,150 -7.1% 2,980 -7.7% 5,566 -7.8% 180,831 -8.5% 38,048 -14.3% 105,041 -13.0% 6,505 -9.0% 2,436 -18.3% 4,800 -13.8% 156,830 -13.3% 36,828 -3.2% 104,590 -0.4% 6,417 -1.4% 2,006 -17.7% 4,475 -6.8% 154,316 -1.6% 36,316 -1.4% 101,490 -3.0% 6,369 -0.7% 1,595 -20.5% 4,215 -5.8% 149,985 -2.8% 36,986 1.8% 106,859 5.3% 6,691 5.1% 1,610 0.9% 4,134 -1.9% 156,280 4.2% 135,031 -9.1% 32,066 -3.6% 5,486 -8.8% 2,084 -19.8% 6,164 -12.6% 180,831 -8.5% 119,663 -11.4% 28,218 -12.0% 4,460 -18.7% 1,247 -40.2% 3,242 -47.4% 156,830 -13.3% 119,051 -0.5% 27,160 -3.7% 4,061 -8.9% 1,073 -14.0% 2,971 -8.4% 154,316 -1.6% 115,579 -2.9% 26,361 -2.9% 4,337 6.8% 772 -28.1% 2,936 -1.2% 149,985 -2.8% 119,376 3.3% 29,564 12.2% 4,247 -2.1% 641 -17.0% 2,452 -16.5% 156,280 4.2% Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 10/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 The company’s core business is manufacturing and sales of fashion apparel. It derives the bulk (about 83% FY02/13) of revenues from Japan but has a growing worldwide presence. Onward has started focusing on overseas operations from FY02/10, particularly in Europe but also increasingly in Asia. Domestically, the main channel is department stores, which comprised 76% of Onward Kashiyama’s overall sales in FY02/13 (about 46% of the group’s overall sales). Onward Kashiyama sells most of its fashion brands (menswear and womenswear with smaller lines for kids and fashion accessories) at such stores. The company defines itself as an apparel manufacturer with strength in high-quality, high-value-added apparel. The company reports results across two segments: Apparel and Other. The Apparel segment is the most important for Onward, generating 91.3% of consolidated sales and over 100% of OP in FY02/13. The company is organized as a holding structure—Onward Holdings Co., Ltd. (Onward HD) is the reporting entity that controls about 90 subsidiaries (FY02/13). By far the most important is Onward Kashiyama Co., Ltd., responsible for apparel sales in Japan. See Group Companies for more. Main Segments Apparel (91.3% of sales, 14.5 billion yen operating profit in FY02/13) Womenswear has historically been the larger contributor to apparel sales (approximately 60.3% of FY02/12 sales); menswear has typically been less (21.2%). Kumikyoku Nijyusanku Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 11/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Womenswear Womenswear focuses on upscale brand and fashion clothing. The target market in womenswear is working women in their 20s and to 40s. The core domestic labels are Nijyusanku, Kumikyoku, ICB, and Jiyuku (Kashiyama). JOSEPH and Jil Sander are the main international brands. Grace Continental—an important brand for new distribution, department store, and directly managed store channels—has been added through the acquisition of Island Co., Ltd. (See Brand Strategy for more.) Main brands: Nijyusanku (est. 1993): Onward Kashiyama’s largest brand. Targeting mainly career women in their 30s, the company calls the brand “Tokyo real clothes,” simple basic lines nuanced by recent fashion trends. FY02/13 sales were 26.6 billion yen. Kumikyoku (est. 1992): Casual lines with elements of today’s style, “standard clothing that does not stand still” for young working women in their late 20s who prefer luxurious but natural looking apparel. FY02/13 sales were 10.6 billion yen. ICB (est. 1995): Business formal line targeted for career women in their 30s. Offering good balance of quality, fashion, and price for various scenes of a working woman’s life. FY02/13 sales were 9.0 billion yen. Jiyuku (est. 2000): The brand for women in their late 30s and early 40s. Simple but luxurious clothing based on concepts of “sophisticated,” “high quality,” and “daily wear.” FY02/13 sales of 9.1 billion yen. any FAM (est. 2005): Brand for new distribution channels such as shopping centers. Styling for women in their 30s with kids. High-quality and easy-to-wear apparel at affordable prices. FY02/13 sales were 8.4 billion yen. any SiS (est. 2005): Brand for new distribution channels such as shopping centers. Basic clothing for working women in their 20s. Basic items incorporating the essence of the recent fashion trends. “Natural and feminine” casual brand with marine motives incorporating the essence of seasonal fashion trends. FY02/13 sales were 7.7 billion yen. Grace Continental (from 2009): Brand managed by Island. Highly popular among sophisticated, urbane women. The brand and its sub-brands offer a collection of wide-ranging items not only at new distribution channels (e.g., inside train station buildings, fashion malls) but also at department stores and directly managed stores. Island’s FY02/13 sales were 8.5 billion yen. Menswear Onward entered the apparel business by producing men’s suits and coats in 1950s. The company’s main products are suits, coats, and jackets, targeted mainly toward businessmen above 30. Main brands: Gotairiku (est. 1992): Clothing for urban businesspeople blending “cosmopolitan” and “relevant” under the concept of “apparel from Tokyo for the world.” FY02/13 sales were 4.4 billion yen. J.PRESS (from 1974): Targeting traditionally minded conservative 30-40-year olds. “Evolving tradition” of New York’s Madison Avenue. FY02/13 sales were 9.2 billion yen. Overseas brands The company owns the brand businesses of JOSEPH and Jil Sander after acquiring JOSEPH Group in 2005 and Jil Sander Group in 2008. These brands form the core of the global strategy push of the company. JOSEPH (from 2005): High quality and easy-to-wear casual clothing based on the concept of “sleek & chic” targeting sophisticated urban men and women. Global brand with stores in major cities of the world starting with London. FY02/13 sales were 8.8 billion yen. Jil Sander (from 2008): Luxury brand born in Germany in 1973, known worldwide for its simple and minimalistic but at the same time sharp tailoring and high level of sewing technology. On February 28, 2012, it was announced that the brand founder, Jil Sander, had returned as a creative director from the http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 12/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 2013 Spring & Summer collection, responsible for the entire range of Jil Sander products, from the Collection line and menswear to Navy. FY02/13 sales were 10.4 billion yen. JIL SANDER NAVY Aoyama store Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research Other (6.1% of sales, 332 million yen operating profit in FY02/13) Includes logistics business, sports facilities, and resort operations; negligible impact on the company’s performance. Business Model The company’s business model (manufacture and sale of apparel) is executed differently in Japan vs. internationally. Domestically, Onward develops/designs apparel (for any of its multiple brands), manufactures at partner factories or through trading companies, and sells it (primarily in department stores). In case of department store sales, although the company bears risk from conception to final sale, the retail transaction is recorded as a sale by the department store; Onward books only a wholesale price. Any returns or unsold inventory are the company’s responsibility, and it makes final decisions about merchandise price (full or discounted). The department store mark-up is a predetermined percentage of the price as discussed in more detail below. Internationally (predominantly in Europe), the company owns two core brands, JOSEPH and Jil Sander, and sells to department stores and other merchants, as well as in directly managed stores. A part of manufacturing is handled by GIBO’Co., an Italian manufacturing subsidiary. Domestic Business While Onward defines itself as an apparel manufacturer, it bears most characteristics of an SPA retailer (Specialty Store Retailer of Private Label Apparel). The company has multiple brands and directs manufacturing (done by partner factories or trading companies) of apparel and accessories under those http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 13/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 brands, rather than using its own factories. The key difference between Onward and other SPA retailers—such as Fast Retailing (UNIQLO) (TSE1: 9983), Inditex (ZARA), and Hennes & Mauritz (H&M)—is that in the majority of cases, Onward doesn’t own directly managed stores. Instead the stores belong to department stores. While in the past the company was a manufacturer (wholesaling to department stores), during the ’90s and 2000s it transitioned into a retailer by all measures but technical details of who books sales and who owns stores. When selling through the department stores, the company owns most fixtures, displays, and the inventory at stores. It also supplies sales staff. The store space itself is owned by a department store and items sold are booked as department store sales (going through its POS and accounting systems; Onward manages sales and inventory using its own store information system in parallel). Technically, Onward recognizes these as wholesale sales. The reality is that Onward acts as a retailer, taking inventory and other operational risks. Department stores provide store space, and as such are little different from landlords. The wholesale price is determined using a ratio called “buritsu.” “Buritsu” is a department store’s gross profit margin and is essentially a variable rent calculated as a percentage of sales. The ratios are determined in negotiations and differ by the product category, brand, and company involved. A typical “buritsu” rate for apparel is in the 30%-40% range. A note on the terminology employed in the apparel manufacturer vs. Japanese department store relationship. The Japanese term for the main transaction method is “shouka” (“purchase-as-sold”), generally translated as “consignment sales.” Confusion can arise from the second method employed in the relationship, “itaku hanbai,” also translated as “consignment sales.” Despite common translation, the two methods have different accounting treatments. The former (“purchase-as-sold”) presumes that the title is not transferred to a department store until actual sale, i.e. never booked as department store inventory; the latter (“consignment sales”) implies the goods become department store inventory (returnable to the manufacturer if unsold). The outright purchase method popular in the U.S. (department stores purchase inventory and assume inventory risk) also exists in Japan, and is called “kaitori” (“outright purchase”). This method is uncommon in Japan and represents a negligible part of Onward’s department store business. Currently over 90% of all sales made by Onward are “purchase-as-sold” type. That means that the company is effectively acting as an SPA retailer in terms of inventory risk, even when selling at the department stores. In other channels the model is different. In shopping centers and similar facilities, a retailer (and Onward would act as a retailer selling there) pays a fixed minimal rent and a percentage of sales on top of it for sales exceeding a predetermined minimum. SR Inc. understands that, in practice, the fixed rent portion dominates, with the overall rental payments typically being about 10% relative to the sales volume. In case of standalone stores, the company would typically pay a fixed rent. Product Development Process and Cycle at Onward Kashiyama The process of product development is run by two main groups—sales (internal buyer) teams and planning (brand) teams. Production is driven by decisions of people who put product in stores—internal buyers (called “sales staff” by the company, they belong to one of eight domestic sales offices (branches) and internally source apparel for stores; customers are the end buyers of apparel). Their decisions are driven by performance and feedback from shops. The company is seeking to reorganize its corporate restructure by introducing a branch office system. Each branch, which previously served as an outpost of Onward Kashiyama, will be integrated into the http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 14/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 group for its branding strategy. The traditional sales office (branch office) structure is optimal when servicing department stores where securing the sales floor space is more easily done on a company (Onward Kashiyama) rather than a brand level. For sales in other channels however it is better to manage by brand on a nationwide level. In general, there are four main fashion seasons. For each of them, planning teams develop collection samples which are presented at internal exhibitions. An example of such an exhibition (typically twice a year) is an Autumn-Winter one, normally held in May. Among the samples shown at the exhibition, the patterns are selected and altered based on the opinions of internal buyers and clients. Then, items selected as a result of this process are ordered by the internal buyers and produced in initial quantities. Additional orders are made based on smaller interim exhibitions mid-season (4-6 per year) and viewings. Planning teams are responsible for making sure that items that are more likely to be reordered can be manufactured. That means securing materials early and keeping them in stock. In terms of the additional production response, 30 days turnaround is the shortest possible cycle. If fabric and accessory parts are available, the order is dispatched to a domestic or overseas factory (in China and in the future likely in ASEAN countries) and a ready garment is shipped (mostly by sea). If fabric needs to be bought or patterns altered, this adds at least another 1-2 weeks to production. The company sources fabric and accessory parts (including lining and interlining materials) in advance, which are kept at factories or warehouses of firms that actually “assemble” the apparel. It doesn’t own or operate production facilities but rather provides guidance to its subcontractors. Each collection or merchandising mix for a particular period consists of both items that would not be reordered when sold and items that are likely to be reordered. Normally around 20%-30% of the collection is designed with reorders and continuous production in mind. Those items (examples may include light casual tops, shirts, casual jackets, etc.) are generally responsible for about 70% of total sales. At the same time, one-off items create the collection’s unique signature and add zest that increases the fashion statement of the brand. In a nutshell, the customer will most likely buy a pair of gray pants but she will remember that bold coat design in purple and associate her purchase at least partly with that design. How much to allocate to each individual store is a complex decision based on a number of factors. As a manufacturer, the company has to guess which styles will sell. The management decides on how aggressive it wants to be in terms of the amount of inventory and the number of new items, based on current status of sales and achievement vs. forecasts as well as current economic conditions and future market outlook. When selling at the department stores, discounting is done at the end of each season, during seasonal sales. The characteristic feature of Japanese department store’s seasonal sales is that discounting tends to be lower and start earlier than in the U.S. or Europe. However, since FY02/13, the company has delayed its summer sales season and adopted a stance of providing appropriate products at reasonable prices at the right time. Despite a decline in sales during the seasonal sales period, sales of full priced items have increased, gross profit margin have improved, and the company has been successful in achieving its earnings targets. While discounts of 50%-70% are common during European bargain sales, in Japan 30%-50% are more prevalent. In a way, the Japanese model provides a relatively shorter window for early season full-price customers, instead offering items at 30% lower prices in the middle of the season and selling items at higher markdown levels early on without having to discount further at the end of each season. The net result is a somewhat smoother distribution of seasonal performance. In the recent years, the seasonal http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 15/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 sales at the department stores have been affected by the changing patterns and growing influence of other channels and business models. Examples include the timing of seasonal bargain sales at the retailers selling apparel at railway station complexes and “fashion buildings” (an urban shopping center inside a multi-story building), weekend sales campaigns, and limited time sales at the “fast fashion” retailers. Onward is a conservative company in SR Inc.’s view, and its business seems experience-driven rather than systems-driven. This conservatism allowed the company to stay profitable despite struggling sales and its relative performance vis-à-vis peers has been respectable (see Competition). One problem however, was that relatively stable gross profit margins were set against declining sales in the department store channel. At the same time, the company found it hard to cut SG&A costs sufficiently, leading to OPM deterioration. The new strategy highlighted in the new FY02/13-FY02/15 mid-term plan is to make existing businesses more efficient and allocate more sales personnel to new operations to improve overall profitability. Store Staffing and Sales Practices The company’s hiring trends have been changing—new hires have been mostly on more flexible term-based contracts, as well as part-time employees. It generally means benefits similar to permanent employees but makes termination easier. The issues, however, have been that as a result of this shift fewer young staff fill senior positions, as promotions are generally reserved for permanent employees. This may have created a situation where upper middle management is dominated by males in their 50s. While this means a wealth of experience, it can also mean conservatism and slower decision making. Senior management is aware of the problem and admits that changes are needed. One way to add “new blood” is M&A. The “rejuvenation” at the head office may take time however. Salespeople at company stores are full-time employees (contract sales employees). Staff report sales and inventory data directly to the headquarters using proprietary store information system. This enables timely additional orders and manufacturing of popular items. Store sizes and efficiency vary substantially by store location, channel, and the specific brand strategy. The merchandise mix is allocated by its sales organization. Individual stores have some freedom in terms of item placement and display inside the store. New Distribution Channels The company sees new channels (“new distribution” in company’s parlance) as the key to domestic growth. FY02/13 sales in new channels (shopping centers, train station complexes, urban fashion malls, standalone stores, and E-commerce) were 29.6 billion yen, or about 19% of total domestic sales at Onward Kashiyama (about 11% of the group’s overall sales). This figure somewhat overstates the real sales through the channel as the bulk of department store sales are recorded at wholesale prices (i.e. after deducting department store margin; so called “gedai” price) while in the new channels the sales are booked at final retail prices (so called “jodai” prices). Nevertheless, new channel sales are large and rising. Furthermore, while the company does not disclose the profitability of new channels, it seems likely (particularly for internet sales) that ultimate profitability can be higher than for the core department store channel. The shopping center channel has shown mixed performance over the past few years (FY02/08 to FY02/13). While Onward has brands specifically for this channel, their contribution has been limited, with three main brands (anyFAM, anySiS, field/dream) contributing less than 20% of total sales (with the same caveat as mentioned above). http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 16/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 VIA BUS STOP Daikanyama store (directly managed) Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research OPENING CEREMONY LUMINE SHINJUKU store An interesting development has been Island Co., Ltd., operating Grace Continental stores in “fashion buildings,” or urban-type commercial facilities such as Parco or Lumine, as well as in department stores. In early 2012, the company acquired Birz Group, another small SPA retailer. Birz Group also has direct manufacturing capabilities in Asia and experience in selling to young consumers, a know-how that Onward is keen to leverage for the benefit of the entire group. Onward wants to make further acquisitions and build a brand portfolio that could be expanded both domestically and in the rest of Asia. Currently, earnings contribution from E-commerce is gradually increasing, and the company is targeting e-commerce sales of 5 billion yen in its plan for FY02/14 (versus sales of 3.8 billion yen in FY02/13). Birz Association Ltd. brand Language shop Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research Overseas Business Although the company operates in Europe, Asia and the U.S., Europe accounts for the majority of overseas business (approximately 13% FY02/13 sales). European operations use GIBO’Co (Italian apparel company Onward acquired in 1990) as manufacturing platform. It has grown in strategic importance for Onward following acquisitions of JOSEPH Group (2005) and Jil Sander (2008). Onward owns close to 100% of GIBO’Co (management has a small stake). http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 17/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 JIL SANDER Munich store (directly managed) Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research The European fashion business is characterized by widespread outsourcing. Design houses rarely have planning and manufacturing capability—this is provided by GIBO’Co. The company develops samples, produces and sells the product, in exchange for a license payment to the designer. To further GIBO’Co’s manufacturing capabilities a number of specialty manufacturing firms were added over time. ERIKA s.r.l. in 2004 (luxury knitwear) IRIS S.p.A. in 2005 (luxury shoe manufacturer) FRASSINETI s.r.l. in 2007 (handmade leather bags) One of the issues GIBO’Co had over the years is that it was essentially a production and distribution purveyor for up-and-coming independent apparel labels. Arguably therefore, acquisitions of JOSEPH and particularly Jil Sander were game changing events and a real start for Onward’s global expansion ambitions. GIBO’Co is aiming to increase sales by signing new licensing agreements with companies outside the group while also working with group companies such as Jil Sander, on their production and wholesale channels to improve production efficiency (as of FY02/13). http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 18/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Cost Structure SG&A Breakdown (million yen) Advertising Provision for Bad Debt Labor Accrued Bonuses Provision for Director Bonuses Retirement Benefit Expense Provision for Director Retirement Rent Depreciation Amortization of Goodwill Other Total FY02/09 Cons. 6,183 417 50,640 1,666 133 1,664 318 11,188 5,451 2,400 29,179 109,245 FY02/10 Cons. 5,484 446 49,212 1,271 262 2,822 15 13,606 73,118 3,405 28,178 109,793 FY02/11 Cons. 5,376 0 48,154 1,282 299 2,678 22 13,323 71,134 3,637 27,177 106,896 FY02/12 Cons. 5,127 0 46,391 1,005 267 2,619 23 12,974 4,803 3,664 27,281 104,154 FY02/13 Cons. 6,312 0 49,392 1,070 252 2,316 27 15,925 4,953 3,937 29,112 113,296 Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research The two main cost components for Onward have been costs of goods sold and labor. Onward’s gross profit margins have typically been stable at approximately 45.8% (FY02/02-FY02/12). One of the key risks for apparel manufacturers is inventory risk; if products don’t sell as expected, excess inventory must be either sold or written off. Onward utilizes the approach whereas the inventory unsold by the end of a season is marked down by 70%. The company commented that their policy is to aggressively liquidate unsold inventory at special sales and similar events to avoid having to incur inventory disposal losses. Inventory losses reported in cost of goods sold for FY02/10 and FY02/11 were negligible. Historically, the SG&A-to-sales ratio has been about 38.2% (FY02/02-FY02/12). In terms of cost budgeting, the company allocates as much cost as they feel is necessary to achieve sales targets under certain profitability constraints. Labor is a constant that the company chose to work with; no restructuring-like labor cuts were ever performed. Advertising is treated as semi-fixed expense, typically about 2.0 billion yen is spent each year with cuts performed in difficult environments like the financial crisis of 2008-2009. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 19/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Profitability Snapshot, Financial Ratios Profit Margins FY02/09 FY02/10 FY02/11 FY02/12 (Million Yen) Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Gross Profit 118,329 114,176 115,825 115,113 Gross Profit Margin 45.3% 45.9% 47.4% 47.5% Operating Profit 9,084 4,383 8,928 10,953 OP Margin 3.5% 1.8% 3.7% 4.5% EBITDA 17,470 13,532 18,207 20,095 EBITDA Margin 6.7% 5.4% 7.4% 8.3% Financial Ratios ROA -10.2% 0.7% 0.9% 1.3% ROE -17.4% 1.4% 1.7% 2.2% Total Asset Turnover 86.2% 84.4% 85.2% 86.8% Inventory Turnover 426.0% 416.0% 420.3% 411.9% Days of Inventory 85.7 87.8 87 89 Working Capital Requirement 20,396 19,800 23,052 23,461 Current Ratio 107.1% 110.7% 115.6% 117.6% Quick Ratio 54.0% 66.1% 72.2% 73.6% OCF / Current Liabilities 11.7% 15.3% 12.9% 15.8% Net Debt / Equity 22.1% 16.4% 14.2% 10.4% OCF / Total Liabilities 8.7% 10.3% 9.1% 11.0% Cash Cycle (days) 19.2 22.7 28 32 Changes in Working Capital 1,081 -596 3,252 409 Source: Company data processed by SR Inc. Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. FY02/13 Cons. 124,490 48.2% 11,192 4.3% 20,850 8.1% 1.6% 2.8% 91.7% 406.2% 90 26,827 99.6% 57.6% 11.0% 14.8% 8.3% 35 3,366 The company’s stable gross profit margins mean that operating profit is thus a function of SG&A spending (the largest component being labor, see Business Model for more). In comparison to peers, Onward’s gross profit has been lower than the median (typically several percentage points); however the company’s OPM has been substantially higher than other firms (see Competition). One possible reason is that although Onward’s direct costs are higher (the company suggests that it uses high-quality components which can reduce GPM), management controls over expenses compensate for lower GPM. The company’s asset base has been relatively productive in terms of turnover (averaging about 86.5% from FY02/02 through FY02/13). The company’s M&A activity has added notable goodwill to the balance sheet. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 20/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Strengths, Weaknesses Strengths: Strong presence in the department store channel: While the department store market is shrinking, the channel will continue to be a major source of cash flow and brand exposure. The expertise acquired in this channel is also likely to contribute to long-term growth in the Asian market. Strong financial position: Onward is cash and asset rich. Overseas, strong potential in Europe and opportunity to leverage JOSEPH and Jil Sander throughout Asia: Onward owns internationally recognized brands with substantial growth potential. It also has a manufacturing base in Europe allowing it to make high-quality merchandise, ranging from clothing to bags to shoes. Despite past mixed record (with financial crises aggravating the challenges), this represents a substantial growth opportunity. Weaknesses: Dependence on department store channel: The shrinking main channel and lack of retailing experience in other channels. Rigid organizational structure optimized for the department stores. Dependence on economically sensitive high-end apparel: Deflation hurts. Dependence on shrinking Japanese market: The company has been slow in developing a successful strategy and executing overseas. The new mid-term plan calls for that to change but given the poor track record investors are likely to be skeptical until the company starts delivering. Group Companies About 90 group companies (as of the end of February 2013) The main subsidiaries are: Onward Kashiyama Co. Ltd. (Japan): Core company of the group. Onward Trading (Japan): Uniforms and sales promotion goods. Chacott (Japan): Dancing wear, costumes and cosmetics. Creative Yoko (Japan): Pet fashion, character accessories etc. Bus Stop (Japan): Multi-brand store operation. Birz Group (Japan): Youth apparel and cost efficient manufacturing in Asia. Charles & Keith Japan Co. Ltd.: Manufacturer and sale of shoes and bags Project Sloan (UK): Holding company of Joseph group companies. Joseph Ltd. (UK): Manufacture and sale of apparel, shoes, and bags. GIBO’Co S.P.A. (Italy): Production platform in Europe with following subsidiaries: IRIS (shoes) CORPORATE (apparel; Antonio Berardi label) ERIKA (knitwear) FRASSINETI (leather bags) Violine S.a.r.l. (Luxemburg): Holding company of Jil Sander group companies. Includes 15 subsidiaries. Jil Sander Italia S.P.A.: Manufactures and sales of apparel (knit and woven), shoes and bags. Island Co., Ltd.: Grace Continental manufacturing and sales operations. Candela International Co., Ltd. (Japan): Operation of CROON A SONG select shops. Onward Fashion Trading (China) CO., LTD.: Sales of apparel. J. PRESS Inc.: Apparel sales in the US. Across Transport: logistics and processing of apparel. Onward Beach Resort Guam, Inc. (Guam): Hotels and resort facilities. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 21/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Onward Resort & Golf: Golf club Market and Value Chain Market Overview Domestic apparel market has been heavily impacted by the declining and aging population. Furthermore, the economic situation of the past several years has changed apparel shopping patterns—more people feel it is fine to buy cheap apparel and fewer people can afford expensive one. While the womenswear market is facing challenges but is still robust, the high-end menswear market shrank dramatically both in term of volume and spending (down 20.2% from 2008-2012, data according to the Japan Department Stores Association). For all practical purposes, the market worth analyzing when assessing future growth domestically is womenswear. The casual apparel revolution led by Fast Retailing’s UNIQLO brand and furthered by domestic and overseas “fast fashion” brands has had profound implications for the entire apparel market, including the high-end market. The consumers came to believe that buying very cheap clothing is not embarrassing. As for first fashion brands, these brands have super short production and reordering cycle (sometimes only a week), and low prices at acceptable quality allowed the consumer to follow trends and buy multiple items without spending much money. In many ways, this contributed to hollowing out of the upscale apparel and created a substantial challenge for such apparel’s main channel, department stores. Customers Although the company’s main customer is department stores, the end customers (who buy apparel) have most bargaining power in the value chain. Customers can shop easily in different channels (stores, online, etc.). In this sense, the consumer is clearly the most important. In a way, the biggest problem for Onward over the past 10-15 years has been its inability to change with the consumer. Indeed, for the company “consumer” and “customer” were not the same—its customers are to a great extent the department stores. The company obviously sells to the end consumer. However, it has been constrained by the demands of its dominant channel and that slowed down the reform. Suppliers Onward doesn’t own factories and its key suppliers are overseas factories (90% of manufacturing is done outside Japan, of which 70%-80% is done in China). The Japanese trading houses play an important role in the supply chain. They handle parts of the production process, connecting the company with manufacturing plants and suppliers, and taking on some risks. They generally guarantee prices for materials and produced items in Japanese yen, i.e. take on the currency fluctuation risks. The main partners for the company are Mitsubishi Corporation (TSE1: 8058), Mitsui Corporation (TSE1: 8031), and Sumikin Bussan Corporation (TSE1: 9938). Onward has been also looking to develop its own manufacturing capabilities and the acquisition of Birz Group (a retailer with direct links to production factories in Asia) in early 2012 was a small step in that direction. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 22/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Competition Performance vs. Peers FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 261,005 133,089 111,817 62,683 342,758 79,665 248,634 114,231 100,333 52,196 314,117 83,504 244,550 112,057 N/A 55,890 305,541 90,571 242,402 104,614 N/A N/A 329,894 102,052 258,369 107,630 N/A N/A 336,480 115,041 45.3% 47.2% 50.0% 49.1% 60.9% 51.0% 45.9% 42.7% 51.5% 49.3% 60.4% 51.3% 47.4% 46.8% N/A 47.7% 59.8% 53.0% 47.5% 47.4% N/A N/A 57.8% 54.5% 48.2% 48.1% N/A N/A 56.3% 54.4% 50.0% 49.6% 51.3% 50.3% 50.3% 47.7% 54.5% 51.0% 54.4% 51.3% 3.5% 3.6% 0.0% 4.2% 5.2% 5.4% 1.8% -4.6% 0.9% 0.8% 3.6% 5.9% 3.7% 2.2% N/A 0.8% 2.9% 8.2% 4.5% 2.0% N/A N/A 3.6% 10.0% 4.3% 5.4% N/A N/A 2.1% 10.9% Median ex Onward Median OP 4.2% 3.9% 0.9% 1.3% 2.6% 2.9% 3.6% 4.0% 5.4% 4.9% Net Profit Margin Onward Kashiyama Sanyo Shokai Sanei International Tokyo Style World United Arrows -11.8% 1.7% -3.3% -15.0% 1.5% 1.6% 0.9% -3.6% -1.4% 1.4% 0.7% 1.7% 1.1% 0.7% N/A -18.6% 0.1% 4.0% 1.5% -1.1% N/A N/A 0.8% 4.9% 1.7% 2.0% N/A N/A -0.2% 6.4% Median ex Onward Median NP 1.5% -0.9% 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.7% 0.8% 1.1% 2.0% 1.9% Sales Onward Kashiyama Sanyo Shokai Sanei International Tokyo Style World United Arrows Gross Profit Margin Onward Kashiyama Sanyo Shokai Sanei International Tokyo Style World United Arrows Median ex Onward Median GP Operating Profit Margin Onward Kashiyama Sanyo Shokai Sanei International Tokyo Style World United Arrows Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Note: Data was not adjusted for differences in the month of fiscal year end. Note: Sanei was acquired by Tokyo Style and delisted in 2010. Note: Tokyo Style was delisted after MBO in 2011. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research In a larger sense the company competes with any apparel company, but World Co., Ltd. (unlisted) and Sanyo Shokai Ltd. (TSE1: 8011) are direct competitors that merit mentioning in SR Inc.’s view. World operates wholesale and retail apparel business both in Japan and overseas. Sanyo Shokai is a large apparel company selling largely in the department stores, a significant (undisclosed) component of revenues being Burberry license sales in Japan. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 23/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Strategy The high level strategy stated by the company is to offer highly fashionable, high quality products selling at prices appropriate to their value. In addition, the company aims to enhance profits by improving the brand value of its core brands through its basic strategy of "brand-based management." It also aims to establish a worldwide presence, focusing on its experience with high-end apparel. In order to achieve its strategic goals, the company also states that it has been shifting the focus towards a “product-oriented” approach as opposed to a “market-oriented” approach. The difference between the two is that the “market-oriented” approach is mostly about trying to understand current trends and respond with an adequate product. The “product-oriented” approach is more about thinking up and creating a product by taking advantage of an apparel makers strength, offering consumers some unique value; proactive vs. reactive. It appears to SR Inc. that despite the common theme, Onward’s domestic and overseas strategies are markedly different. Therefore, they are discussed separately in this report after a brief discussion about fashion brand building in general (more pertinent to the domestic business). Brand Strategy While some U.S. and European companies have won with multiple brands, this typically was via acquisitions. Japanese firms tend to have many smaller domestically-oriented brands, developed in-house. One explanation for this has been the historic focus on specific channels. To some extent all major Japanese apparel firms defined their businesses first by sales channel and then by the target consumer. Onward and some peers mentioned in Competition have historically focused on department stores. The company calls itself a “general apparel company,” making all sorts of apparel including uniforms and pet wear. However both investors and consumers probably recognized it as a high-end apparel producer which sells in department stores. While seemingly irrelevant to casual observers, SR Inc. believes that the channels dictated business and brand strategies for many Japanese manufacturers. Furthermore, it is likely that preferences and needs of core channel clients, especially powerful department stores, promoted independence of individual operators and proliferation of multiple smaller brands. Independence here means the remarkable absence of major domestic M&A in the apparel sector. Each manufacturer, especially those selling in department stores, had brands which were replaceable and of limited uniqueness. Buying a competitor would not necessarily guarantee an increase in the sales space allocated by a department store. Developing brands in-house and mastering the relationship with the channel has been the smartest choice. Onward is one of the smartest if not the smartest when it comes to department stores. Hence Onward’s more than 70 brands, and deep but historically profitable dependence on department store sales. Conveniently, the multi-brand approach also reduces risk. Japanese consumers in particular have relatively short-lived preferences and the Japanese fashion cycle is notoriously short and volatile; brands that become too popular too fast often face violent downturns as customers grow weary and flock elsewhere. This is why large overseas apparel companies (excluding sportswear) are multi-brand conglomerates (who buy brands, not create them). Therefore, in SR Inc.’s view, it is reasonable to http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 24/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 conclude that developing multiple brands has been and probably remains the optimal strategy in Japan. While it doesn’t create household names that carry on through generations, it allows apparel companies to manage their business in a manner not dissimilar from diversified asset management companies—a little bit of everything for a stable portfolio. Some brands have distinct items which not only sell well but also distinguish the brand. Theory and Onward’s own JOSEPH achieved that in women’s pants. Similarly, mentioning Ralph Lauren invokes images of polo shirts, and Burberry, checkered pattern scarves and coats. Onward commented that selling such items is extremely easy and profitable, but finding the right balance between core and new items is one of the hardest parts of brand management. Developing such brands requires bold vision and initial risk-taking. It’s possible that Onward’s (and other large and successful companies) relatively bureaucratic and consensus-based organization doesn’t easily lend itself to individual risk-taking. It’s therefore hard for Onward to repeat the success of acquired brands (JOSEPH, Jil Sander) domestically. This is probably why the company seems to prefer developing overseas brands as a separate group, using its Italian subsidiary GIBO’Co as a manufacturing platform. This seems the optimal choice for the worldwide expansion (see discussion below). SR Inc. believes that Onward is a product-oriented company. It’s less about fashion per se, but more about building a product portfolio uniquely suited to its main department store channel. Rather, the focus is on generating constant flow of apparel corresponding to individual styles of relatively narrowly defined brands. Sales for higher-priced brands, even quite successful ones, typically range between 20-30 billion yen (the biggest rarely reaching 50 billion yen). They are different from mass-market brands bought by tens of millions of people. As prices increase so does fashion, i.e. the ability of the brand to respond to the unique needs of a particular group of customers. Domestic Strategy Domestically, the company aims to grow by increasing the profitability of the existing business through the structural reform (but not a full-blown “restructuring”) while expanding new businesses and acquiring existing ones. The idea is to continue to see the department store channel as a core one but at the same time pursue growth through other channels. (SR Inc. notes that this commitment to department stores could be one reason why the declining sales do not automatically lead to restructurings across-the-board. Furthermore, the company argues that given low flexibility of the Japanese labor market and high costs associated with the restructurings (one time pay-offs), it is not clear whether a drastic cost reduction would produce any long-lived benefits.) SR Inc. estimates that the department store sales will likely move in-line with the general demographic trends, the economic cycle and be a function of total sales floor space of major department stores. It seems reasonable to assume that given strong core brands, Onward’s share in the channel remains stable or slowly increases. Given continued renovations and floor expansion of the department stores in large cities, it is conceivable that around FY02/15, Onward’s sales in the channel could again reach the 140-150 billion yen, the level last seen a number of years ago. The retail space of Onward in the department stores is set to decline in FY02/14 (-1.1% YoY). In the same year, however, the company is looking to grow domestic sales for two years in a row. Sales may rise 2.1% YoY, signifying that it may have finally returned to domestic growth. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 25/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Further domestic expansion would without doubt involve other distribution channels such as shopping centers, fashion buildings, multi-brand standalone stores, and the internet. The company sees growth in these “new distribution” channels as strategically important and expects its sales space there to increase 1.2% YoY in FY02/14 bringing about sales of 33.7 billion yen (13.7% YoY). The plan is to achieve this growth while controlling costs, in a large part by shifting existing personnel to these growth areas. The domestic brand strategy is twofold. The main part is to concentrate resources in core brands. At the same time Onward will seek to add new unconventional looks and styles (either create brands or, more likely, acquire existing brands). A good example of what the company is trying to do is the acquisition of Island Co. Ltd in December 2009, with its Grace Continental store brand. Such initiatives outside of the traditional “comfort zone” are the key to domestic growth. The company is planning to continue growing Island, make further acquisitions (such as the acquisition of Birz Group in early 2012), and use those assets as a leverage of expansion both domestically and in new emerging markets. Overseas Strategy The overseas strategy in recent years is something that the market has not been giving Onward much credit for (as of early 2013). The company made two large acquisitions in 2005 and 2008. Unfortunately, from the moment of acquisition and through FY02/13, both overseas subsidiaries, JOSEPH and Jil Sander, failed to generate economic returns and were detractors of earnings. The company may have a right to an excuse or two. First, the timing of the acquisitions was unfortunate as the financial crisis of 2007-2009 suddenly pushed the luxury apparel business from the fast growth lane off the road. That should be remembered when assessing earnings of the company’s two high-end European brands, both of which relied on purely clothing sales over that period. Furthermore, the currency trends were not necessarily favorable at the consolidated level. Finally, brand businesses are notoriously hard to turn around. The European business may finally be turning the corner. While it is way early to draw conclusions, the crown jewel in the overall strategy is Jil Sander with its new Navy line. Launched in 2011, it was initially marketed as an extension of the main Jil Sander Collection line. However, the approach backfired, as the new line was not what the existing Collection customers were expecting and at the same time failed to attract a sufficient number of new ones (however, the line has received a favorable following in Japan marketed as an individual brand). The company quickly changed the course and will try to build new line Jil Sander Navy into a strategically important separate brand. This means a separate marketing, more retailing opportunities, and a larger market. The brand’s founder, Jil Sander, will step down from her role as creative director, with the Spring/Summer 2014 collection being her last in the post. The company states that this will have little effect on its products, as it has been enhancing its company structure for everyone from chief designers down (including menswear, womenswear, and accessories). The opportunity for Jil Sander Navy seems significant. First, the original brand, a truly luxury one, had a somewhat limited market. Navy should have a wider appeal. The company opened the world-first flagship Jil Sander Navy store in Aoyama, Tokyo, in September 2012. With a full apparel and accessories lineup, it could go from the established retail markets to new dynamic markets of Russia, Middle East, and Asia. JOSEPH is more of a wildcard. FY02/13 failed to bring clarity about what needs to be done to restore profitability and growth. However, conceptually JOSEPH is a highly marketable brand with its clean lines, broad luxury appeal and item flexibility. The company is looking to focus on expanding the retail presence in outside of the main UK and Japanese markets into North America, Russia, Germany, and Asia both through direct stores and franchising relationships. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 26/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 GIBO’Co will provide key support on the manufacturing side, particularly for Jil Sander. It will also likely play a quasi-headquarters role for the Onward group in Europe, helping coordinate the management of the European operations and set the group-level agenda. SR Inc. is also intrigued by direct forays into retail by GIBO’Co—selling apparel and accessories on a consignment basis in select European department stores. Expansion in Asia offers long-term growth potential for the company. The company’s mid-term plan through FY02/15 is calling for 21.0 billion yen in Asian sales in FY02/15, a threefold increase compared to FY02/12 results. This is still only 6% of the total consolidated sales target (with a similar percentage contribution to earnings). It seems logical however, that Asia should become the second largest revenue generator for Onward in the long run thanks to its sheer market size and the opportunity for the company to leverage both its Japanese and European brand assets. Onward will open more new stores, increase the size of its existing stores, experiment with e-commerce, and expand wholesale sales through distributors. While the existing brands are likely to play the key role in Asian expansion, locally developed brands also hold great potential. The company would leverage its branding and manufacturing capabilities, and the retail know-how to start purely local brands. Doing this through locally established companies with fewer visible links to Onward, or acting only as a wholesaler, allows better pricing flexibility (going down market without hurting the perception of the existing brands). It also lowers the risk of being seen as “Japanese,” something that may be of value in such sometimes sensitive markets as China, especially dealing with the mass consumer. The potential of Asia doesn’t end there. Onward has stated that it would pursue developing independent production capabilities in China and ASEAN. This means developing direct links with factories in the region, bypassing such helpers as trading companies. While using the trading houses does bring about large benefits as discussed elsewhere in the report, they are also increasingly becoming competitors. The independent manufacturing capability will give Onward better cost controls and more flexibility. The U.S. contribution will remain minor although things like the re-launch of ICB as a truly international brand and efforts to grow J.PRESS warrant some attention. Onward plans to further boost its North American presence by opening new offices and showrooms in the U.S. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 27/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Historical Financial Statements Summary Earnings Results Discussion for the Year Preceding Current Fiscal Year (For Reference Purposes) Q3 FY02/14 Results (announced on January 10, 2014; please refer to the preceding tables) In cumulative Q3, sales were 205.4 billion yen (+7.4% YoY), operating profit was 10.1 billion yen (-5.4%), and recurring profit was 11.9 billion yen (+0.9%). Net income was 5.8 billion yen (+24.2%), pushed up by extraordinary gains, including a gain on the sale of investment securities (887 million yen). SR Inc. estimates that cumulative Q3 operating profit was more than 1.0 billion yen short of the company’s forecast (consolidated basis). Sales of Onward Kashiyama’s products for the fall season struggled due to unfavorable weather, and some of the domestic subsidiaries came in under expectations. December monthly sales of Onward Kashiyama were up 5% YoY and there is likely to be a surge in demand in Q4 to beat the consumption tax hike. However, this is unlikely to make up for the shortfall in Q3, and there is some downside risk to the full-year FY02/14 forecasts. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 28/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Results and forecasts for main subsidiaries (million yen) HD+Onward Kashiyama YoY % of FY Onward Trading YoY % of FY Chacott YoY % of FY Creative Yoko YoY % of FY Island YoY % of FY Across Transport YoY % of FY JOSEPH YoY % of FY GIBO'Co YoY % of FY Jil Sander YoY % of FY Cumulative Q3 FY02/14 FY02/14 Forecast Sales OP Sales OP 119,479 1.5% 73.8% 11,887 2.7% 77.1% 8,356 2.6% 77.3% 4,773 -6.9% 65.5% 6,307 -1.8% 72.5% 8,971 2.4% 77.2% 7,849 30.2% 74.1% 14,830 41.3% 76.8% 9,653 31.7% 73.0% 10,979 12.7% 88.5% 774 -22.4% 69.0% 609 -10.8% 81.3% 75 -72.9% 11.7% 923 -17.4% 61.2% 230 19.8% 111.1% -354 772 3.9% 73.2% -1,258 - 162,000 3.7% 15,417 4.7% 10,803 2.5% 7,291 -1.4% 8,696 2.5% 11,613 1.1% 10,593 20.1% 19,303 30.6% 13,217 26.7% - 12,400 12.2% 1,121 9.3% 749 0.5% 641 -7.9% 1,508 3.0% 207 6.7% -180 1,055 31.7% -1,101 - Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research Domestic: Onward Kashiyama For Onward Kashiyama (96.1% of forecast FY02/14 operating profit), Q3 (September-November only) was tough. Unfavorable weather such as typhoons in October and a temporary downturn in consumer sentiment due to the decision to go ahead with the consumption tax hike dampened sales. In Q3 (September-November) sales change for the core brands (36% of Onward Kashiyama’s total sales) was -0.5% YoY: Nijyusanku, -1.1%; ICB, -4.6%; and Jiyuku, -2.8%. Kumikyoku grew sales by 5.4% YoY, thanks to ongoing promotional activities featuring Satomi Ishihara, a popular actress. For Onward Kashiyama’s core brands, cumulative Q3 sales growth was: Nijyusanku, +2.3% YoY; Kumikyoku, +8.8%; ICB, +1.3%; and Jiyuku, +4.2%. In the core menswear brand, Gotairiku, which struggled through 1H, from 2H the company boosted its high-quality suits, which are differentiated by materials and styling, and target men in their 40s (second-generation baby boomers). In Q3 (September-November only), Gotairiku’s sales rose 6.0% YoY. While poor weather hit sales in October, they grew by a robust 15% in the month of December, in line with forecasts. The company said that the menswear market overall was recovering, with suit sales especially brisk. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 29/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Among core brands sold through new distribution channels (13% of Onward Kashiyama’s total sales), Q3 (September-November only) sales were +0.9% for anyFam (-5.2% YoY), impacted by the poor weather in October. (anySis grew by 7.7% and field/dream rose by 0.6%.) For cumulative Q3, sales for anyFam grew by 2.0%, anySis by 9.9%, and field/dream by 0.2%. anyFam recovered to post 6.5% growth in December. In e-commerce, Onward is likely to exceed its full-year 5.0 billion yen sales target (+30% YoY) with sales of over 5.3 billion yen, thanks to a growing membership and higher sales per customer. It appears that the increase in sales per customers is partly due to the active shopping of some frequent customers. As a result of the growth of e-commerce and good sales of highly profitable products, Onward Kashiyama’s gross profit margin in Q3 (September-November), rose from 54.7% the previous year to 55.1%; in cumulative Q3, it rose from 51.6% in the previous corresponding period to 52.0%. Due to poor sales, the company made efforts to constrain costs by more than called for in the company’s forecasts. The selling, general and administration expense ratio in Q3 (September-November) was 39.5% (steady YoY), and for cumulative Q3 it was 42.8% versus 43.3% the previous year. However, it appears that the decrease in expenses is not enough to cover the slide in sales, and operating profit has fallen somewhat below the company’s target. Domestic: other subsidiaries Onward trading (uniform and sales promotion goods) is still being affected by rising raw material costs due to yen weakness; profits fell both in Q3 and cumulative Q3. In Q4 it should be able to get back on track to meet its full-year forecast of 1.1 billion yen, due to a recovery in orders, a review of materials procurement, and progress on price pass-through. Profits fell at Chacott (dancewear) as existing-store sales slumped due to poor weather, and the brand also incurred personnel and marketing costs associated with the launch of the innerwear business. However, the company expected these increases in costs, and had already incorporated them into its plan. Thus, at the end of Q3, this brand looked, for the most part, to be progressing according to plan. Creative Yoko (pet clothing and character goods) suffered from poor weather and sales opportunity loss caused by the late delivery of some products manufactured in China. It seems that the business will have difficulty meeting FY02/14 forecasts. The shipping from China took longer than usual to clear customs due to stricter inspections of exports to Japan. To attract customers, the company planned to open large stores covering 100 tsubo (330m2) in urban areas in FY02/15. At Island (production and sales of the Grace Continental brand, which targets women in their 20s and 30s), sales and profits fell YoY, due to poor weather and because the popularity of the brand is starting to wane a little. From FY02/15, the company plans to boost customer appeal by introducing new concept stores, such as a store focusing on fashion accessories (jewelries). Birz, the new subsidiary, requires some time to improve delivery and quality controls at its own factories in Asia. Sales therefore struggled as the result of late deliveries and uncompetitive products. Due to costs associated with laying the foundations for improvement, it appears the business will post operating losses of around 5.0 billion yen in FY02/14. The company is reviewing the product value and price setting, and plans to improve the spring and summer 2014 collection. In addition, the company plans to scrap unprofitable stores to reduce operating losses to a few hundred million yen in FY02/15, and lay the groundwork for a move into the black. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 30/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Overseas GIBO’Co posted a rise in profit as it booked sales of new bags and shoes brands and completed the necessary investments to improve its production capability—such as expanding factories and hiring more workers. In FY02/15, as the cost of the new brand’s samples falls, a further improvement in profits is in prospect. At Jil Sander, Q3 cumulative operating losses expanded to around 1.3 billion yen (from around 1.1 billion yen in cumulative Q2). Despite upfront investment in restructuring the business, sales at Jil Sander Navy—a key sales driver—were not growing as much as expected. In addition, the impact of forex fluctuation widened the profit loss. Ms. Jil Sander will step down as creative director after showing the 2014 Spring/Summer collection. According to Onward, the design team of Jil Sander has been improved (in menswear, womenswear, and accessories) and the departure of the creative director should not cause a problem with regard to product creation. Also, the company will see a reduction in costs related to the designer herself of several hundred million yen in FY02/15, followed by further reduction of a similar scale in FY02/16. In JOSEPH, following on from the first half, sales grew, driven by improvements in its “essential products” line-up. The company indicated that recurring profit would likely return to the black as expected in FY02/14. The company planned to focus on growing sales per store in FY02/15 rather than expanding the number of the store, and as a result boost profits by around 150 million to 200 million yen. In North America, the company was incurring upfront costs—increased personnel numbers of ICB business and the renovation of J.Press flag ship store. It seems that operating losses will be around 400-500 million yen from this year to FY02/16. 1H FY02/14 Results (announced on October 4, 2013; please refer to the preceding tables) In 1H FY02/14, sales were 132.3 billion yen (+9.5% YoY) and operating profit was 3.3 billion yen (+5.5% YoY). Recurring profit was 4.8 billion yen (+28.2% YoY), reflecting an improvement in non-operating income and expenses (the company booked a foreign exchange loss of 505 million yen in 1H FY02/13). Net income for 1H FY02/14 was 1.7 billion yen (+216.0% YoY), which included extraordinary gains, such as an 887 million yen gain on the sale of investments in securities. Results exceeded the company’s plan (consolidated basis) by the following percentages: sales 4.2%, operating profit 4.1%, recurring profit 25.6%, and net income 175.2%. Although results at some domestic subsidiaries fell short of plan, core domestic brands were the main performance driver. In overseas operations, despite a slow recovery in sales in Asia, results were largely in line with plan in Europe. Based on performance in 1H and foreign exchange trends, the company reviewed its pricing policy for 2H. As a result, it raised the full-year sales forecast from 273.0 billion yen to 277.0 billion yen. Profit forecasts were unchanged. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 31/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Results and forecasts for main subsidiaries ( million yen) HD+Onward Kashiyama YoY Onward Trading YoY Chacott YoY Creative Yoko YoY Island YoY Across Transport YoY JOSEPH YoY GIBO'Co YoY Jil Sander YoY 1H FY02/14 2HFY02/14 Forecast Sales OP Sales OP 75,492 4,128 86,508 8,272 3.1% 38.3% 4.1% 2.6% 8,248 659 7,169 462 5.8% -2.8% 3.5% 32.8% 5,546 479 5,257 270 2.6% 8.4% 2.4% -10.9% 3,046 30 4,245 611 -9.3% -79.9% 5.3% 11.7% 4,026 608 4,670 900 -0.9% -7.3% 5.7% 11.4% 5,781 101 5,832 106 2.4% 13.5% 0.0% 1.0% 5,188 -315 5,405 135 36.2% 7.9% 9,189 206 10,114 849 40.7% -33.8% 22.7% 73.3% 6,195 -1,098 7,022 -3 40.5% 16.5% - Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research Domestic: Onward Kashiyama At Onward Kashiyama, which accounts for 74% of the company’s domestic business (based on operating profit, including Onward Holdings), sales of the four core brands (Nijyusanku, ICB, Jiyuku and Kumikyoku), together with other main brands sold through department stores, surpassed the forecast. Specifically, consumer sentiment improved on the back of economic recovery, and the company implemented measures to enhance differentiation, such as strengthened product planning and merchandising. Sales increased YoY by the following percentages: Nijyusanku 4.5%, ICB 4.1%, Jiyuku 8.7%, and Kumikyoku 10.9%. The strong performance by Kumikyoku was underpinned by an aggressive TV advertising campaign. Based on 1H performance, the company raised its full-year sales forecasts. Kumikyoku sales are expected to grow 7% YoY (5% under the initial plan), while Jiyuku sales are forecast to increase 6% YoY (4% under the initial plan). Although core men’s brand Gotairiku recorded a 5.1% decline in sales YoY in 1H, the company plans to target customers in their 40s (second-generation baby boomers) in 2H, centering on the sale of high-quality suits (materials and styling). To minimize opportunity-loss, the plan calls for a full lineup of products in terms of both price points and volumes. The company will work to revitalize the men’s apparel business by through an aggressive advertising strategy and by appointing the director of CK Calvin Klein operations to concurrently oversee Gotairiku. The company forecasts 2H sales to increase 16% YoY. Regarding strategy for department store brands in FY02/15 and beyond, the company plans to focus resources on core brands while reviewing unprofitable stores and brands. The company says it will aim to maintain YoY sales growth at around 5% for core women’s brands, and is targeting 30% YoY sales growth in FY02/15 for Gotairiku. Regarding performance in new channels (non-department store) in 1H, sales at core brand anyFAM were http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 32/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 up 5.9% YoY, anySiS was up 11.1% YoY and field/dream was unchanged YoY. From FY02/15, the company plans to use advertising to drive further sales growth. By building a solid sales track record and enhancing its relationship with retail developers, the company aims to cultivate advantages for future store openings. In e-commerce channels, the company achieved an increase in site membership and expanded the number of brands on offer. As a result, 1H sales were up approximately 50% YoY, to 2.4 billion yen. Progress toward the company’s full-year sales target of 5.0 billion yen (+30% YoY) was ahead of forecast. The company says it is aiming for e-commerce sales of around 7.0 billion yen in FY02/15, and 10.0 billion yen in FY02/16. Gross profit margin in 1H at Onward Kashiyama was 50.2% (1H FY02/13: 49.7%), driven by robust performances by high-margin core brands and e-commerce. From FY02/13, the company has focused on improving sales of full-price items by delaying the start of seasonal bargain sales. In Q2, the company sold summer items at full prices up to early-July, which resulted in higher sales of full-price items, centering on core brands. Hence, the strategy appears to have succeeded largely as planned. The SG&A-to-sales ratio improved to 44.7% (1H FY02/13: 45.7%) through a continuing tight rein on expenses. This contributed to double-digit growth in operating profit, surpassing the company’s forecast. Domestic: Other Subsidiaries Operating profit at other domestic subsidiaries was down approximately 500 million yen YoY, falling several hundred million yen short of forecast. At main subsidiaries, centered on Onward Trading, the rapid depreciation of the yen had a negative impact on gross profit, as measures to overhaul the production structure as well as responses in price negotiations were unable to make up for forex impact. In addition, a lag in recovery at new subsidiaries contributed to the decrease in operating profit. The company anticipates an improvement in earnings in 2H at Onward Trading and other subsidiaries based on an overhaul of materials procurement and measures to pass on cost increases in product pricing. Although orders—including those from new clients—are on a recovery trend at Onward Trading, as previously mentioned, results were affected by the weakening of the yen. Chacott grew sales at standalone stores, achieving higher sales and operating profit. However, the company expects profit to decrease in 2H due to labor and marketing expenses related to a new business. At Creative Yoko, which sells pet fashion and character goods, comparable store sales declined, reflecting the impact of severe midsummer heat and intensified competition. Island increased its store count and aggressively rolled out high-end products to build the brand. However, in 1H these measures only made a limited contribution to earnings. Overseas According to the company, in 1H although sales recovery lagged in Asia, in the overseas business’ core European operations, GIBO’Co and Jil Sander achieved progress in line with plan and JOSEPH was on a recovery path. Yen depreciation led to a fall of approximately 300 million yen in operating income. GIBO’Co grew OEM and wholesale sales, however, due to such factors as sample-production costs for a new brand of OEM shoes, there was an overall increase in sales but decrease in operating income. According to the company, in 2H sample costs are expected to decline and shipments of autumn/winter items and 2014 spring shoes are forecast to increase. Based on such factors, the company forecasts operating profit to rise 73.3% YoY. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 33/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 At Jil Sander, operating loss increased by approximately 1.1 billion yen due to upfront expenses relating to rebuilding of the business and the impact of foreign exchange. However, results were largely in line with the company’s initial plan, which anticipated a deterioration of approximately 400 million yen YoY in 1H earnings. To increase sales especially for Jil Sander Navy, the company plans to open more standalone stores and stores within retail complexes, and will also work to expand wholesale sales. There have been several media reports (as of November 2013) suggesting that Ms. Jil Sander will resign from her position as creative director following the showing of the Spring/Summer 2014 collection. According to the company, an organizational structure is being put in place that will facilitate a smooth shift in the role of Ms. Jil Sander, and there is no other official comment on the matter. SR Inc. does not expect these developments to have a large impact. At JOSEPH, in recent years unsuccessful product design and merchandising have seen an ongoing decline in sales of the Essential Line. The company is working to remedy this situation through merchandising aimed at returning the brand to its roots. This resulted in an increase in sales YoY in 1H as Essential Line sales improved. Operating loss was reduced YoY, from 498 million yen in 1H FY02/13 to 315 million yen in 1H FY02/14. This reflected a decrease in depreciation expenses relating to new store openings and store refurbishments as well as progress in sales of items from previous years (inventory write-downs were booked in FY02/13). In North American operations, although performance of the apparel business fell short of plan, the resort business performed strongly. While operating loss came in at 169 million yen (versus operating profit of 0 million yen in 1H FY02/13), North American operations as a whole were slightly ahead of forecast. Q1 FY02/14 Results (announced on July 5, 2013; please refer to the preceding tables) In Q1 FY02/14, sales were 72.2 billion yen (+6.8% YoY) and operating profit was 6.4 billion yen (+2.8% YoY). Recurring profit was 7.2 billion yen (+19.2% YoY), reflecting an improvement in non-operating income and expenses (the company booked a foreign exchange gain of 302 million yen compared with a foreign exchange loss of 443 million yen in Q1 FY02/13). During Q1, Onward booked extraordinary gains, including an 887 million yen gain on the sale of investments in securities, which contributed to net income of 3.8 billion yen (+36.5% YoY). According to the company, Q1 performance highlights were as follows. Consolidated operating profit was up 174 million yen YoY. Operating profit YoY on an individual subsidiary basis was down 204 million yen at GIBO’Co, Jil Sander was down 206 million yen and down 90 million yen in Asia. In contrast, YoY operating profit at Onward Holdings and Onward Kashiyama rose by 787 million yen and at JOSEPH improved 152 million yen, thereby underpinning the consolidated operating profit increase. At the subsidiary level: Onward Holdings and Onward Kashiyama Sales of 42.1 billion yen (up 2.9% YoY); operating profit of 5.8 billion yen (up 15.8% YoY) Onward Trading Sales of 4.7 billion yen (up 7.8% YoY); operating profit of 475 million yen (down 3.1% YoY) Chacott http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 34/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Sales of 2.6 billion yen (up 2.2% YoY); operating profit of 68 million yen (down 35.9% YoY) Creative Yoko Sales of 1.6 billion yen (down 9.1% YoY); operating profit of 54 million yen (down50.5% YoY) Island Sales of 2.1 billion yen (up 1.4% YoY); operating profit of 318 million yen (down 12.2% YoY) Across Transport Sales of 3.1 billion yen (up 3.1% YoY); operating profit of 233 million yen (up 7.4% YoY) JOSEPH Sales of 2.7 billion yen (up 16.8% YoY); operating loss of 148 million yen (vs. an operating loss of 300 million yen in Q1 FY02/13) GIBO’Co Sales of 4.7 billion yen (up 8.1% YoY); operating profit of 207 million yen (down 49.6% YoY) Jil Sander Sales of 3.4 billion yen (up 15.0% YoY); operating loss of 155 million yen (vs. an operating profit of 51 million yen in Q1 FY02/13) Asia Sales of 1.9 billion yen (up 14.6% YoY); operating loss of 164 million yen (down 35.4%) Domestic Centering on Onward Kashiyama, the Company implemented measures to boost product appeal and enhance store management capabilities. As a result, core brands and other main brands achieved sales surpassing the company’s forecasts. In addition, the company pursued structural reforms and improved cost efficiency through efforts to enhance productivity. With regard to YoY sales performance at Onward Kashiyama’s core brands, Nijyusanku was +4.2%, Kumikyoku was +11.6%, ICB was +5.3% and Jiyuku was +8.5%. Results at other subsidiaries were largely in line with company forecasts. Overseas Although sales recovery is lagging in the Asia region, sales grew at the European operations—the core of the overseas business—and the company’s efforts to improve business management were progressing according to plan. FY02/13 Results (announced on April 5, 2013) For the full year, sales were 258.4 billion yen (+6.6% YoY), operating profit was 11.2 billion yen (+2.2% YoY), and recurring profit was 13.4 billion yen (+0.6% YoY). For the period, Onward booked 7.6 billion yen extraordinary losses (3.4 billion yen in FY02/12) due to 6.9 billion yen impairment losses including 6.7 billion yen goodwill impairment at subsidiary Project Sloane Limited and fixed asset impairment losses. However, higher deferred income tax YoY reduced income tax charges, resulting in net income of 4.5 billion yen (+27.6% YoY). Sales, operating profit, and recurring profit fell short of company forecasts by 3.1%, 18.9%, and 13.0%. Domestic businesses posted an earnings increase YoY even though they failed to meet target. The http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 35/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 company’s overseas operations, on the other hand, had a significant earnings decline YoY and missed target by a wide margin, presenting an issue that will linger through FY02/14 and beyond. According to the company, full-year performance highlights were as follows. Consolidated operating profit was down by 239 million yen YoY and breaking this down at the subsidiary level: Operating profit at JOSEPH dropped by 787 million yen YoY; by 498 million yen at GIBO’Co; by 264 million yen at Jil Sander; and by 480 million yen in Asia. Operating profit at Onward Holdings and Onward Kashiyama rose by 1.5 billion yen; and by 316 million yen at Onward Trading. Onward Holdings and Onward Kashiyama Sales of 156.3 billion yen (up 4.2% YoY); operating profit of 11.0 billion yen (up 16.0% YoY) Onward Trading Sales of 14.7 billion yen (up 2.1% YoY); operating profit of 1.0 billion yen (up 44.5% YoY) Chacott Sales of 10.5 billion yen (up 4.1% YoY); operating profit of 745 million yen (up 7.5% YoY) Creative Yoko Sales of 7.4 billion yen (down 4.0% YoY); operating profit of 696 million yen (down 4.0% YoY) Island Sales of 8.5 billion yen (up 3.6% YoY); operating profit of 1.5 billion yen (down 5.1% YoY) Across Transport Sales of 11.5 billion yen (up 1.3% YoY); operating profit of 194 million yen (up 16.2% YoY) JOSEPH Sales of 8.8 billion yen (up 6.1% YoY); operating loss of 725 million yen (vs. an operating profit of 62 million yen in FY02/12) GIBO’Co Sales of 14.8 billion yen (down 1.0% YoY); operating profit of 801 million yen (down 38.3% YoY) Jil Sander Sales of 10.4 billion yen (up 5.7% YoY); operating loss of 711 million yen (vs. an operating loss of 447 million yen in FY02/12) Asia Sales of 7.5 billion yen (up 9.4% YoY); operating loss of 147 million yen (vs. an operating profit of 333 million yen in FY02/12) Domestic Onward Kashiyama undershot its full-year sales estimate. The company struggled in Q3 because of lingering summer heat. Although sales began to pick up toward the end of FY02/13, the recovery was not strong enough to enable the company to achieve its sales target. However, sales of high-margin core brands and those through new distribution channels (e.g., e-commerce) were robust. The gross profit margin consequently increased to 50.6%, up 1.4 percentage points from FY02/12, and the company’s domestic profitability improved largely as planned due to sales-linked cost controls. Operating profit was in line with forecast after the company reduced its operating expenses by 1.6 billion yen from an initial plan. Sales in FY02/13 at core brands were as follows: +7.8% YoY for Nijyusanku; +5.0% for Kumikyoku; +0.8% for ICB; and +6.7% for Jiyuku. Among the new distribution channels, sales at anyFAM rose 9.7% YoY, anySiS rose 9.3% YoY, and field/deram rose 12.8% YoY. The company’s e-business generated sales of 3.8 billion yen (+69.4% YoY), exceeding its target. The six main brands (JOSEPH, Paul Smith, TOCCA, http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 36/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 BEIGE, field/dream, and OPENING CEREMONY), which operated a “retail brand business system,” may have had a double-digit sales increase. (The retail brand business system, unlike the previous branch-based system, integrates the management of planning, production, marketing, and sales on a per brand basis.) Operating profit rose 1.2 billion yen and 100 million yen during Q1 and Q2 of FY02/13, respectively. Operating profit fell 1.2 billion yen in Q3 and rose 1.5 billion yen in Q4. In Q1, sales of core-brand products, including spring costs and Cool Biz items, were brisk. The company benefitted from an increase in sales of full-price items. During Q2, sales of full-price summer items expanded significantly, raising the company’s gross profit margin more than expected. However, inventory valuation losses increased after discount sales fell. Sales of autumn items were also sluggish because of lingering summer heat in August. In Q3, sales of autumn products were slow to take off. The start of a “family sale” event was delayed until December (For FY02/12, the event took place in November). The company also made investments in sales floors and increased advertising expenses. However, gross profit margin improved significantly in Q4 thanks to strong sales of full-price cold-weather items, mostly womens’ brands. This, along with a reduction in operating expenses, contributed to a significant profit increase YoY. Other subsidiaries’ performance was largely in line with company estimates. While Creative Yoko Co. and Island Co. had some difficulty meeting their targets, Onward Trading Co. and Across Transport Co. had strong showing. Creative Yoko was affected by its decision to scrap directly run shops inside shopping centers. Island failed to meet its sales target and its gross profit margin declined as a result of an inventory increase. Onward Trading benefitted from a large-scale order and a cost reduction achieved through an expansion of production in Asia. Profitability at its uniform and sales-promotion operations improved. Across Transport, meanwhile, increased sales after adding customers. Overseas The company accelerated investments and production in Europe and Asia in accordance with its aggressive expansion strategy. However, worsening economies, political instability, etc. in these regions led to substantially lower-than-expected overseas sales for the year. Overseas profitability accordingly fell YoY with certain operational issues lingering. Sales and profits fell at GIBO'Co. Sales fell because it had fewer orders for 2012 autumn and winter collection. Shipments of 2013 spring collection were also delayed.* Profit fell because of upfront costs involving the production of sample products, advertising, and the expansion of showrooms. The company’s European units end its fiscal year in November. For GIBCO’Co at the parent level, this means shipments of some products scheduled for FY11/12 have been delayed until FY11/13. The European units’ sales and profits for the December-February period (Q1) are included in the March-May period (Q1) of the consolidated earnings. Retail sales expanded at Jil Sander thanks to a rollout of full-scale operations of Jil Sander Navy. However, there was a delay in the planning of the Collection Line. As a result, shipments of some products scheduled for FY02/13 were delayed until FY02/14. Thus, the unit posted a recurring loss, instead of a profit as planned. At JOSEPH, sales of Essential Line items fell as a result of economic stagnation in Europe and http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 37/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 merchandising failures. Despite aggressive efforts, sales declined and valuation losses increased. The unit’s profits plunged. In Asia, the company sought to expand China operations by increasing production. However, a deterioration of Japan-China relations and economic conditions led to substantially lower sales. Q3 FY02/13 Results (Announced on January 11, 2013) In cumulative Q3, sales were 191.4 billion yen (+4.9% YoY), operating profit was 10.7 billion yen (-5.9% YoY), and recurring profit was 11.8 billion yen (-3.6% YoY). Net income was 4.6 billion yen (+6.4% YoY) on the back of smaller extraordinary losses YoY (in cumulative Q3 FY02/12, the company booked 2.9 billion yen extraordinary losses, including 1.1 billion yen in connection with the implementation of accounting standards related to asset retirement obligations and 1.3 billion yen related to headquarters rebuilding). The company maintained its full-year forecasts. However, SR Inc. thinks that the company’s overseas performance in Europe, Asia, etc. was somewhat disappointing in the cumulative Q3 period. Accordingly, SR Inc. estimates that although its domestic performance will be largely in line with estimates, Onward will likely undershoot its full-year FY02/13 operating profit target due to weaker-than-expected overseas performance. According to the company, cumulative Q3 performance highlights were as follows. Consolidated operating profit was down by 666 million yen YoY and breaking this down at the subsidiary level: Operating profit at Onward Trading rose YoY by 443 million yen; by 236 million yen at Onward Resort Group; by 6 million yen at Onward Holdings and Onward Kashiyama; and by 1 million yen at Jil Sander. Operating profit at JOSEPH dropped YoY by 436 million yen; by 419 million yen at GIBO’Co; and by 276 million yen in Asia. Onward Holdings and Onward Kashiyama Sales of 117.7 billion yen (up 3.9% YoY); operating profit of 9.7 billion yen (up 0.1% YoY) Onward Trading Sales of 11.6 billion yen (up 5.1% YoY); operating profit of 998 million yen (up 79.8% YoY) Chacott Sales of 8.1 billion yen (up 4.3% YoY); operating profit of 683 million yen (up 0.7% YoY) Island Sales of 6.4 billion yen (up 4.7% YoY); operating profit of 1.1 billion yen (down 2.8% YoY) Creative Yoko Sales of 5.1 billion yen (down 1.9% YoY); operating profit of 277 million yen (down 6.1% YoY) Across Transport Sales of 8.8 billion yen (up 1.7% YoY); operating profit of 192 million yen (down 2.0% YoY) Onward Resort Group Sales of 2.9 billion yen (up 20.3% YoY); operating profit of 199 million yen (vs. an operating loss of 37 million yen YoY) JOSEPH Sales of 6.0 billion yen (down 3.4% YoY); operating loss of 630 million yen (vs. an operating loss of 194 million yen YoY) GIBO’Co Sales of 10.5 billion yen (down 11.8% YoY); operating profit of 743 million yen (down 36.1% YoY) http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 38/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Jil Sander Sales of 7.3 billion yen (down 3.7% YoY); operating loss of 295 million yen (vs. an operating loss of 296 million yen YoY) Asia Sales of 4.7 billion yen (up 5.8% YoY); operating profit of 66 million yen (down 80.7% YoY) Domestic Onward Kashiyama saw higher sales and profitability YoY although the sales fell short of its estimate. Sales in cumulative Q3 at core brands were as follows: +8.3% YoY for Nijyusanku; +4.3% for Kumikyoku; -0.6% for ICB; and +7.3% for Jiyuku. In the Q3 alone, sales rose 5.3% YoY for Nijyusanku; +11.3% for Kumikyoku; -3.5% for ICB; and +0.7% for Jiyuku. As these figures show, ICB faced difficulties, while Kumikyoku performed well. The company has been rebuilding its product strategy and refurbishing its retail spaces for Kumikyoku. In the Q3, the company began airing TV commercials—the first in the past ten years—featuring Japanese actress Satomi Ishihara. These initiatives bore fruit, according to the company, with the brand’s recognition increasing among younger customer groups on top of core customers in their 30s, and the company believes that this led to robust results at Kumikyoku. In cumulative Q3, sales in new distribution channels were steady as well (e.g., anyFAM sales: +9.8% YoY; anySiS: +9.7% YoY; field/dream: +12.1% YoY). In the Q3 alone, sales at anyFAM rose 5.8% YoY; 4.9% YoY at anySiS; and 1.9% YoY at field/dream. The company’s performance in the Q3 alone was under the negative impact of lingering summer heat in September and mid-October 2012 as well as of a “family sale” event that was pushed back from November to December (i.e., Q4 FY02/13). Still, the company maintained that its December performance was robust even when leaving out the positive impact of the “family sale” event and it saw steady sales at the beginning of January 2013. At subsidiaries, Creative Yoko suffered intensified competition. However, better-than-expected performance at Onward Trading, Chacott, etc. drove overall results, according to the company. Overseas Weak consumer spending in Europe and Asia due to economic slowdown and political instability meant lower-than-expected overseas sales and profitability YoY. Lower sales and profitability YoY at GIBO’Co were due to economic slowdown in Europe and higher costs in connection with new-brand sample production and showrooms, things that can be viewed as upfront investments. GIBO’Co has been working to expand wholesale sales through stronger partnerships with licensors (i.e., designers) and pursue group-wide synergy. On top of these ongoing efforts, GIBO’Co was accelerating the development of a new retail business (e.g., strengthening consignment sales at European department stores) through these investments. Sales at Jil Sander were lower YoY. Although Jil Sander Navy saw higher retail and wholesale sales YoY, Collection Line sales were weak due to stagnant consumer spending in Europe. The brand founder, Jil Sander, had returned as a creative director from the 2013 Spring & Summer collection. The change of designers, however, caused a delay in planning work on the Collection Line, highly likely pushing back some products’ launches originally scheduled within FY02/13 to FY02/14 (see Note below). SR Inc. estimates that the company’s future outlook depends on the pace of Jil Sander Navy’s growth going forward and the Collection Line’s profitability improvements. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 39/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Note: Onward’s subsidiaries in Europe close a book in November each year. So, for Jil Sander alone, some of its products initially scheduled for release within FY11/12 will now be launched in FY11/13. Sales and profits at European subsidiaries during their Q4 (September-November) are included in Onward’s consolidated results in Q4 (December-February). JOSEPH saw a higher operating loss YoY due to weak sales of JOSEPH-branded items and period-end inventory write-downs. In Q4, JOSEPH appears to be experiencing similar trends. Still, the company seems confident about improving profitability from FY02/14 through better product planning capabilities and more accurate product output adjustments. Onward’s substantially lower profitability YoY in Asia was due to weak sales in China. In addition, although the company slowed down the pace of new store openings, Onward was not able to effectively adjust its production output, resulting in inventory write-downs. As the Chinese economy was slowing down, department stores in general (a distribution channel for Onward) appeared to be facing difficult conditions. The company stated it would need to tackle the Chinese market through strategies similar to those in Japan, i.e., maintaining strong presence in the department store channels and at the same time expanding operations through new distribution channels. The company added that it would strengthen the “rosebullet” brand for young customers and accelerate low-cost production in Asia. Q2 (1H) FY02/13 Results (Announced on October 5, 2012; please refer to the preceding tables) The company maintained its full-year forecast. Sales were up 6.3% YoY at 120.9 billion yen, and operating profit up 97.5% at 3.2 billion yen. Despite the overseas business suffering a lower gross profit margin attributable to inventory write-downs, the group-level gross profit margin was up 0.7 percentage point YoY at 47.8% thanks to strong sales at Onward Kashiyama’s core brands, higher sales of full-price items during summer bargain sales, and higher sales via new distribution channels. Also, sales growth absorbed a 5.1% YoY rise in SG&A expenses with the SG&A-to-sales ratio dropping 0.5 percentage point YoY to 45.2%. As a result, the operating profit margin was up 1.2 percentage points YoY at 2.6%. Despite non-operating expenses larger than non-operating income (mainly due to a 505 million yen FX loss), recurring profit was up 50.6% at 3.7 billion yen. Net income shot up 578.9% to 522 million yen on the back of smaller extraordinary losses YoY (in 1H FY02/12, the company booked a 1.1 billion yen extraordinary loss from the implementation of accounting standards related to asset retirement obligations). Sales fell slightly short of company forecast due to weak sales of autumn apparel, caused by lingering summer heat in August, and to the negative impact of roughly 2.5 billion yen, caused by foreign exchange rate fluctuations in Europe. Meanwhile, operating profit was 21.4% higher than forecast thanks to Onward Kashiyama and other domestic subsidiaries performing better than expected, which compensated for the overseas business falling short of estimates. According to the company, 1H performance highlights were as follows. Consolidated operating profit was up by 1.6 billion yen for the period YoY and breaking this down at the subsidiary level: Operating profit at JOSEPH fell by 218 million yen YoY and by 72 million yen at GIBO’Co. Operating profit rose by 1.2 billion yen YoY at Onward Holdings and Onward Kashiyama, 298 million yen at Onward Trading, 134 million yen at Onward Resort Group, and 69 million yen at Jil Sander. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 40/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Onward Holdings and Onward Kashiyama Sales of 73.2 billion yen (up 6.9% YoY); operating profit of 3.0 billion yen (up 64.1% YoY) Onward Trading Sales of 7.8 billion yen (up 4.9% YoY); operating profit of 678 million yen (up 78.4% YoY) Chacott Sales of 5.4 billion yen (up 6.8% YoY); operating profit of 442 million yen (up 8.1% YoY) Island Sales of 4.1 billion yen (up 4.9% YoY); operating profit of 656 million yen (down 4.4% YoY) Creative Yoko Sales of 3.4 billion yen (down 0.5% YoY); operating profit of 149 million yen (up 50.5% YoY) Across Transport Sales of 5.6 billion yen (up 1.8% YoY); operating profit of 89 million yen (up 34.8% YoY) Onward Resort Group Sales of 1.9 billion yen (up 20.5% YoY); operating profit of 102 million yen (vs. an operating loss of 32 million yen YoY) JOSEPH Sales of 3.8 billion yen (down 10.3% YoY); operating loss of 482 million yen (vs. an operating loss of 264 million yen YoY) GIBO’Co Sales of 6.5 billion yen (down 9.1% YoY); operating profit of 311 million yen (down 18.8% YoY) Jil Sander Sales of 4.4 billion yen (down 10.0% YoY); operating loss of 517 million yen (vs. an operating loss of 586 million yen YoY) Asia Sales of 4.4 billion yen (up 2.1% YoY); operating profit of 164 million yen (up 9.3% YoY) Domestic Onward Kashiyama registered a significant YoY improvement in performance. This resulted in operating profit 35.7% higher than estimate in Japan, despite domestic sales falling short of estimate by 1.9%. Sales in this 1H at core brands were as follows: Nijyusanku rose 10.2% YoY; +0.4% for Kumikyoku; +0.8% for ICB; and +11.9% YoY for Jiyuku. Also, sales at brands through new distribution channels were robust overall with anyFAM climbing 12.1%; +12.4% at anySiS; and +17.8% at field/dream. Regarding 2012 summer bargain sales, Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd. (TSE1: 3099) announced that it would start summer bargain sales from mid-July (beginning-July in past years). Lumine Co., Ltd. (a subsidiary of East Japan Railway Company; TSE1: 9020) followed Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings, delaying its summer bargain sales also to mid-July. Other department store operators decided to begin summer bargain sales from July 1 as with previous years. These moves by department store operators caused a rather confusing situation at apparel companies that were selling the same brands wholesale to or were tenants simultaneously at both Isetan Mitsukoshi/Lumine and other department stores. More specifically, apparel companies would have to sell the same products at different prices depending on the location of their shops. This resulted in each apparel company starting its summer bargain sales on a different date. In such an environment, Onward adopted the policy of presenting right products at the right price and time, i.e., selling its products at full price at the beginning of July (when demand is high). Accordingly, the company started summer bargain sales from after the mid-July. Despite lower bargain sales, full-price item sales rose, leading into a higher gross profit margin as the company intended. In August, however, lingering summer heat meant weak sales of autumn apparel. Focusing on six brands (JOSEPH, Paul Smith, TOCCA, BEIGE, field/dream, and OPENING CEREMONY), Onward is shifting from its traditional “branch-office system” to a “retail brand business system” in which http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 41/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 it integrates the management of planning, production, marketing, and sales on a per brand basis. The company maintained that benefits from this systematic shift would materialize from 2H, adding that it was steadily implementing related business initiatives in 1H. Performance at Onward Trading and other domestic subsidiaries was in line with company estimates, except at Island, which experienced a lower gross profit margin YoY due to higher write-downs at the period end in connection with inventory optimization efforts. Overseas In Europe, GIBO’Co performed largely as planned. In contrast, Jil Sander performance was somewhat stagnant, and JOSEPH results were significantly lower than estimates. More specifically, GIBO’Co sales and profits were lower YoY mainly due to higher costs in connection with new-brand sample production and showrooms, things that can be viewed as upfront investments. Still, Onward explained that GIBO’Co performance was largely in line with estimates. For Jil Sander, both retail and wholesale performance at Jil Sander Navy was better than expected. However, retail sales of the Collection Line were stagnant due to weak consumer spending in Europe. As a result, Jil Sander subsidiary did not return to profitability in 1H. At JOSEPH, the merchandising failure led to weak sales and higher end-of-period inventory write-downs of JOSEPH-branded items, resulting in a substantially lower gross profit margin and, consequently, lower sales and profits. Onward views such merchandising failure as one of the issues for JOSEPH subsidiary to address going forward. Onward’s performance in Asia came in below estimates mainly due to weak performance in China. As the Chinese economy was slowing down, department stores in general (a distribution channel for Onward) appeared to be facing difficult conditions. More specifically, a large decrease in sales of full-price items led to higher inventory write-downs and, consequently, a lower gross profit margin in China. Nevertheless, with sales growing higher than expected in Asia ex-China, sales and profits in the region as a whole increased YoY. Commentary by Onward Kashiyama President Akinori Baba The following sums up Onward Kashiyama President Baba’s comments at the 1H results meeting. 1. Onward’s Strategy Going Forward As discussed in the New Medium-Term Three-Year Plan, Onward needs to have a multifaceted business model that goes beyond existing business fields. To this end, the company must move to a new era where it is not about “creating new brands” but rather “creating new businesses.” Otherwise, it will not be able to adjust to changes in operating environments. New business creation will be underpinned by: (1) expanding product categories, initiatives, and services; (2) developing new brands and new distribution channels; and (3) accelerating overseas business. Expanding product categories, initiatives, and services involves going beyond just apparel offerings and providing lifestyle-oriented products and services. Onward will expand business fields by taking up new business models and offering accessories and other goods with a focus on “new lifestyles.” In developing new distribution channels, Onward will continue to use department stores as it main channel. However, with different department store operators going into different directions, various traditional distribution channels are increasingly being integrated. Therefore, the company intends to develop new brands to spur a drastic structural change in the distribution industry. Onward will also http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 42/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 consider expanding business by better utilizing its existing nationwide sales network and staff. Onward aims to accelerate overseas business by maximizing the use of the Onward Group’s brand assets. 2. Concrete Plans “Expand Product Categories, Initiatives, and Services” This plan involves the three brands of Charles & Keith, united bamboo, and kimono studio mon. Charles & Keith offers fashionable yet reasonably priced shoes, handbags, and accessories. The brand rolls out products throughout Asia centered on Singapore. Onward Holdings will establish a joint venture with Singapore-based Charles & Keith to develop the brand’s business in Japan. The company plans to open stores in so-called “fashion buildings,” urban shopping centers, etc. nationwide from the spring-summer 2013 season. In addition to apparel, New York-based united bamboo offers bags (Le Bac by united bamboo). Onward Kashiyama acquired the “united bamboo” trademark rights in Japan and Asia and plans to begin wholesale sales of bags (Le Bac) from the spring-summer 2013 season. For kimono studio mon, Onward has already opened a flagship store in Futako-Tamagawa (Setagaya-ku, Tokyo). The flagship store not only sells kimonos but also provides comprehensive services, from photo studio, dressing, and hair and makeup styling to kimono storage. Other stores (of a smaller scale) will open in key areas starting from FY02/14. “Develop New Brands and New Distribution Channels” This plan is underpinned by HEART of DKNY and Sebiro & Co. brands and by establishing a new specialty-store business, among other initiatives. Derived from the DKNY brand that the Onward Group already carries, the HEART of DKNY brand features large-scale stores primarily located in shopping centers. Under the concept of “Manhattan Weekend Life,” the brand presents new lifestyle ideas through men’s, women’s, and kids’ offerings. Sebiro & Co. has custom-made suit stores at locations close to customers (i.e., in residential districts) for better convenience for customers. The flagship stores in Jiyugaoka (Meguro-ku, Tokyo) and Kichijoji (Musashino City, Tokyo) offer additional services for suit repair and pressing. The company plans to accelerate store openings in key regions nationwide by utilizing Onward Kashiyama’s manufacturing technology, know-how, and sales network. In establishing a new specialty-store business, Onward intends to transfer existing sales personnel over to the new business. For example, Onward Kashiyama’s sales organizations will target prominent specialty stores to expand sales of products from the Birz Group, now part of the Onward Group. “Accelerate Overseas Business” J.Press plans to launch “J.Press York Street” in the US from the spring-summer 2013 season, targeting young, affluent fashion enthusiasts. Going forward, J.Press aims to expand a network of large-scale lifestyle shops that include menswear, womenswear, children’s clothing, and even home furnishings. ICB has started the exclusive rollout of ICB NY Exclusive Collection to US Barneys New York locations and plans to expand retailing to department stores throughout the US as well as to Asia and Europe from the autumn-winter 2013 season. From around 2014, Onward intends to integrate ICB’s planning teams now in both New York and Japan and move to a structure in which, for example, New York handles design processes, Japan manages business, and Asia performs production. Jil Sander Navy will be developed as a brand separate from the Collection Line in Japan and the US. Onward opened the brand’s first flagship store in September 2012 in Tokyo’s Aoyama district. 3. Others From autumn 2012, existing businesses were facing increasingly difficult conditions. Onward intends to overcome adversities and achieve double-digit sales growth in FY02/14 by expanding into growth fields. It will be from 1H FY02/14 that the company will begin to see the benefits of organizational http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 43/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 restructuring in actual figures. Onward has already started centralizing administrative divisions. Onward will promote a cycle of “scrap and build” (withdraw or expand) for each brand, thereby improving the efficiency in existing businesses. In 1H, delaying summer bargain sales was a success. But Onward plans to begin winter bargain sales from January 2 as with previous years. Key to success in bargain sales is to present right products at the right price and time. JOSEPH in Europe expanded the offering of trendy products in a bid to broaden its wholesale sales channels worldwide but suffered a slowdown in existing businesses. Onward plans to make things turn around at JOSEPH. Q1 FY02/13 Results (Announced on July 6, 2012) The company maintained its forecast. Sales were up 10.1% YoY at 67.6 billion yen, and operating profit up 32.9% at 6.2 billion yen. The operating profit margin was up 1.6 points YoY at 9.2%. The higher OPM was thanks to a higher gross profit margin YoY (+0.5 point, at 50.1%) resulting from strong sales of Onward Kashiyama’s core brands and higher sales through new distribution channels and also thanks to a lower SG&A-to-sales ratio (-1.0 point, at 40.9%). Higher SG&A YoY (+7.5%) was offset by sales growth. Despite non-operating expenses larger than non-operating income (mainly due to a 443 million yen FX loss), recurring profit was up 12.2% at 6.0 billion yen. Net income shot up 30.4% to 2.8 billion yen on the back of smaller extraordinary losses YoY (in Q1 FY02/12, the company booked a 1.1 billion yen extraordinary loss from the implementation of accounting standards related to asset retirement obligations). Operating profit showed a substantial rebound YoY, although this was largely attributable to a decline caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake in Q1 FY02/12. In fact, Q1 FY02/13 OP was essentially on par with those in Q1 FY02/08 and Q1 FY02/09 (periods prior to Lehman Brother’s collapse). Also, Q1 FY02/13 OP came in above company estimate, possibly thanks to robust performance of domestic businesses (e.g., Onward Kashiyama), despite weak performance of certain overseas businesses (e.g., JOSEPH, China). The company maintained 1H forecasts, commenting it had yet to see the trends and results of 2012 summer bargain sales. As of beginning-July, other apparel companies have already started summer bargain sales. In contrast, aiming to expand sales of full-price items, the company has begun summer bargain sales slightly later, after mid-July. The company could face the risk of excess inventory should the summer bargain sales disappoint the company. If the company sells as planned through the summer bargain sales, however, the GPM is likely to improve significantly even with July monthly sales being flat YoY. In addition, the company will likely be able to continue bargain sales in August without running out of stock. In this sense, the company’s monthly sales in July and August deserve close monitoring. According to the company, Q1 performance highlights were as follows. Consolidated operating profit was up by 1.5 billion yen for the period YoY and breaking this down at the subsidiary level: Operating profit at JOSEPH fell by 111 million yen YoY and by 34 million yen at Jil Sander. Operating profit rose by 1.2 billion yen YoY at Onward Holdings and Onward Kashiyama, 178 million yen at Onward Trading, 69 million yen at Onward Resort Group, and 63 million yen at GIBO’Co. Onward Holdings and Onward Kashiyama Sales of 40.9 billion yen (up 10.6% YoY); operating profit of 5.0 billion yen (up 32.8% YoY) Onward Trading http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 44/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Sales of 4.4 billion yen (up 1.6% YoY); operating profit of 490 million yen (up 57.1% YoY) Chacott Sales of 2.6 billion yen (up 10.6% YoY); operating profit of 106 million yen (up 35.9% YoY) Island Sales of 2.1 billion yen (up 10.0% YoY); operating profit of 362 million yen (up 13.8% YoY) Creative Yoko Sales of 1.8 billion yen (up 0.3% YoY); operating profit of 109 million yen (up 65.2% YoY) Across Transport Sales of 3.0 billion yen (up 0.7% YoY); operating profit of 217 million yen (up 5.9% YoY) Onward Resort Group Sales of 1.1 billion yen (up 18.0% YoY); operating profit of 200 million yen (up 52.7% YoY) JOSEPH Sales of 2.4 billion yen (down 1.1% YoY); operating loss of 433 million yen (vs. an operating loss of 322 million yen YoY) GIBO’Co Sales of 4.3 billion yen (up 11.7% YoY); operating profit of 371 million yen (up 20.5% YoY) Jil Sander Sales of 2.9 billion yen (up 4.7% YoY); operating profit of 8 million yen (down 81.0% YoY) Asia Sales of 1.6 billion yen (up 3.6% YoY); operating profit of 252 million yen (up 4.1% YoY) Domestic Onward Kashiyama registered a significant YoY improvement in performance, led by its core brands (see above for actual figures). Q1 sales at core brands were as follows: Nijyusanku rose 15.1% YoY; +3.2% for Kumikyoku; +18.8% for Jiyuku; and +6.5% YoY for ICB. Sales for Nijyusanku and Jiyuku grew significantly as some products from these brands became major success, although there were some rebound effects after a decline a year earlier due to the disaster. Kumikyoku sales growth was relatively smaller. The company commented, with Kumikyoku already seeing some hot sellers, it confirmed signs of the brand’s performance bottoming out. Sales in new distribution channels were steady as well (e.g., anyFAM sales: +11.8% YoY; anySiS: +10.8% YoY). Onward Trading performed well, helped by demand recovery for both uniforms and sales promotion goods as well as by lower CoGS. Island maintained robust performance. Other domestic subsidiaries’ performance was largely in line with company estimates. Overseas In Europe, performance at JOSEPH fell short of company estimates due to weak year-end and New Year bargain sales. On the other hand, performance at GIBO’Co came in above company estimates. European retail businesses seemed to be increasingly affected by economic slowdown. Still, the company intends to expand its European operations further through various measures aimed at overcoming weak economy and other adversities. In fact, strong Jil Sander performance was thanks to measures to increase Jil Sander Navy sales. Sales in China fell short of plan, possibly due to weak performance of department stores there. In the late-1990s, after the Japanese economy matured, the department store industry experienced stagnant performance. The company said the Chinese market, still growing rapidly, may have already begun seeing similar trends at department stores. Overall, the company’s overseas business performed largely in line with company estimates, with weak results at JOSEPH and in China being offset by better-than-expected results at GIBO’Co, etc. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 45/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 FY02/12 Results (Announced on April 6, 2012) Despite a 0.9% decline in sales YoY to 242.4 billion yen, the company’s operating profit was up 22.7%, to 11.0 billion yen. This partly due to better cost controls, with the SG&A-to-sales ratio improving by 0.6% YoY. The recurring profit came in at 13.3 billion yen (27.0% up YoY). The company booked 1.0 billion yen in extraordinary profit for the period (due to sales of fixed assets); however, it also posted a 3.4 billion yen extraordinary loss stemming primarily from asset retirement obligation accounting provisions (1.1 billion yen) and the rebuilding and renovation of company headquarters (1.3 billion yen). As a result of all of these factors, net income was up 29.6% YoY, to 3.5 billion yen. The loss related to headquarters rebuilding and renovation was booked in FY02/12 although the actual construction work takes place over three years. The company will rebuild its head office in Nihombashi in central Tokyo. After the new building is complete, a part of it will be rented out to third-party tenants. Looking at the 1H and 2H numbers, in the 1H when the results were affected by the earthquake, sales fell 2.3% but profits rose 1.9%. In 2H, aggressive merchandising and marketing allowed to grow both sales (+0.4% YoY) and operating profit (+27.1% YoY). The full year sales were approximately 1% below the company forecast, but operating profit was 7.4% higher than anticipated, principally thanks to improved cost controls. The group’s main subsidiaries performed as follows (the sales and operating profit totals shown below are simple aggregate totals calculated prior to eliminations). Onward Holdings and Onward Kashiyama Sales of 150.0 billion yen (down 2.8% YoY); operating profit of 9.5 billion yen (up 28.7% YoY) Onward Trading Sales of 14.4 billion yen (down 3.0% YoY); operating profit of 710 million yen (down 23.8% YoY) Chacott Sales of 10.1 billion yen (up 0.8% YoY); operating profit of 693 million yen (up 12.0% YoY) Island Sales of 8.2 billion yen (up 12.1% YoY); operating profit of 1.5 billion yen (up 4.5% YoY) Creative Yoko Sales of 7.7 billion yen (down 3.6% YoY); operating profit of 725 million yen (up 2.4% YoY) Onward Resort Group Sales of 3.1 billion yen (down 7.0% YoY); operating loss of 122 million yen (vs. an operating loss of 3 million yen) JOSEPH Sales of 10.3 billion yen (down 7.8% YoY); operating loss of 444 million yen (vs. an operating loss of 352 million yen) GIBO’Co Sales of 14.9 billion yen (up 19.8% YoY); operating profit of 1.2 billion yen (vs. an operating profit of 585 million yen) Jil Sander Sales of 9.9 billion yen (up 5.1% YoY); operating loss of 599 million yen (vs. an operating loss of 664 million yen) Consolidated operating profit was up 2.0 billion yen YoY. Breaking this down at the subsidiary level, operating profit at Onward Trading fell by 222 million yen and by 119 million yen at Onward Resort Group; conversely, it rose 2.1 billion yen at Onward HD (the legal entity at the top of the Onward group of http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 46/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 companies) and Onward Kashiyama, and 605 million yen at GIBO’Co. Domestic: sales of 213.7 billion yen (down 1.9% YoY); operating profit of 13.0 billion yen (up 16.9% YoY) Onward HD and Onward Kashiyama Onward Kashiyama registered a significant rise in profitability, led by its core brands. It absorbed the impact from the earthquake in 1H (which caused an estimated decrease in sales of about 3.0 billion yen due to store closures and reduced opening hours in the Tohoku and the Kanto regions) by bolstering its product offerings and store sales and improving its costs controls, including for labor and advertising costs. This resulted in improved profits. Sales of core brands were as follows: Nijyusanku +0.3% YoY, Kumikyoku +11.6%, Jiyuku +0.7%, and ICB +0.6%. By quarters, the operating profit grew by about 100 million yen, 200 million yen, and 1.8 billion yen, in Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively, and roughly flat YoY in Q4. In Q1-Q2, the earthquake, early start of seasonal sales by competitors, and weak performance of the fall apparel amid unseasonably hot weather hurt profitability. At the same time, gross profit margins benefited from lower minimum royalty guarantees on licensed brands and higher weight of apparel sold at full prices (benefiting from Cool Biz casual business wear trend). The company also controlled SG&A costs. In Q3, sales were strong, driven by the original merchandise under the Cross-Brand Strategy umbrella (unified theme items represented across the brand portfolio) such as MIRA SHAWL items (“mirror shawl”) and Warm Biz merchandise. The profitability improved as gross profit margins further benefited from less discounting and successful cold-weather outerwear offering and SG&A costs were controlled tightly. In Q4 however, profits were practically unchanged YoY despite cost reductions as sales fell by 1.0bn yen YoY, hurt by weakness of spring apparel affected by the unusually long and cold winter. Onward Trading The recovery of the sales promotion unit was not sufficient to compensate for the decline in orders for both school and work uniforms due to the earthquake. In addition, the company was not immediately able to transfer the increased production costs it incurred in China onto product prices. As a result of these factors, operating profit in 1H fell and there was a decline in both sales and profits for the full fiscal year. Chacott The dancewear subsidiary steadily increased customer numbers, led by its flagship store and its e-business, and achieved an increase in both sales and profits. Island Aggressive merchandising strategy and corresponding efforts to carry broader inventory meant lower gross profit margins (offering an aggressively wider variety of items means that more items won’t sell at full prices). However, the strategy paid off as it also meant more customers and more items sold, resulting in stronger top line and better operating profitability (both beating forecast). Creative Yoko Sales fell in the aftermath of the earthquake, but the pet wear subsidiary managed to grow profits as spend per customer and gross profit margins increased driven by strong new product offering. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 47/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Overseas: sales of 44.0 billion yen (up 5.9% YoY); operating profit of 323 million yen (previous year, an operating loss of 99 million yen) Operations in Europe recorded a significant improvement in financial results, with an increase in both sales and profits. Europe: sales of 34.2 billion yen (up 6.6% YoY); operating profit of 197 million yen (previous year, an operating loss of 363 million yen) JOSEPH Despite efforts to refresh the brand image, sales came in below plan as the European retail business failed to recover. GIBO’Co Orders from Jil Sander and other brands (both from the inside and outside of the Onward group companies) increased, leading to a strong apparel and shoes wholesale business. Operating profit increased approximately 600 million yen YoY and was also about 3 million yen above the company’s forecast. Jil Sander The gross profit margins improved by using GIBO’Co’s production platform. Sales of its new line, Jil Sander Navy, did not reach the company’s ambitious forecast. On the other hand, wholesale sales trended according to forecasts. Asia: sales of 6.9 billion yen (up 6.7% YoY); operating profit of 333 million yen (down 19.0% YoY) Sales in Asia, centered on China, trended strongly until Q3, but consumer confidence deteriorated in Q4 due to anxiety about the economic environment, and full-year sales were below the company’s forecast. United States: sales of 2.9 billion yen (down 3.5% YoY); operating loss of 207 million yen (previous year, an operating loss of 147 million yen) Retail (J.PRESS) sales were slightly down, but the gross profit margin improved because of an increase in sales of full-price items, and, as a result, the size of the deficit decreased. Profitability for the resort unit recovered in 2H. However, the unit was unable to offset the decrease in sales in 1H caused by the substantial decline in customer numbers as a result of cancellations following the earthquake. Consequently, the company recorded a deficit in this region for the full fiscal year. Q3 FY02/12 Results (Announced on January 6, 2012) The company maintained its full-year forecast. Despite a recovery in consumption following March 2011’s earthquake in Tohoku, bad weather over the period resulted in a 0.3% YoY decline for cumulative Q3 FY02/12 sales, which came in at 182.5 billion yen. Gross profit margin though improved to 49.1% from 48.5% YoY on the back of a review of royalties of overseas licensed apparel brands and a strengthening of the product offering and store sales. The SG&A-to-sales ratio declined 2.3% YoY due to expense controls, which further raised profitability. Consequently, there was a 30.7% YoY increase in operating profit to 11.4 billion yen. The company booked 1.0 billion yen in extraordinary profit for the period due to sales of fixed assets, however it also posted a 2.9 billion yen extraordinary loss stemming primarily from asset retirement http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 48/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 obligation accounting provisions (1.1 billion yen) and the rebuilding/renovation of company headquarters (1.3 billion yen). Net income thus declined 7.0% YoY to 4.4 billion yen. Q3 sales at Onward Kashiyama were positively affected by the company bringing forward a “family sale” event into the Q3 period and strong January New Year sales campaign. Consolidated operating profit was up by 2.7 billion yen YoY. At the major subsidiaries, operating profits deteriorated at Onward Trading, Jil Sander, JOSEPH, and Island, while improving at Onward Kashiyama, GIBO’Co, Chacott, Creative Yoko, Across Transport and Onward Resort Group. Domestic Onward Kashiyama registered a significant rise in profitability, led by its core brands, absorbing the earthquake impact. Cumulative Q3 sales at core brands were: +0.3% YoY for Nijyusanku, -11.3% for Kumikyoku; +0.8% YoY for Jiyuku, and +0.3% YoY for ICB. (On a quarterly basis Q3 core brand sales were: +5.1% YoY for Nijyusanku; -6.7% for Kumikyoku; +9.0% for Jiyuku, and +6.1% YoY for ICB. Island continued to perform well and exceed forecasts, while Chacott also generated solid results. In contrast, while Onward Trading has shown signs of a recovery in 2H, this has not been sufficient to make up for the slump it experienced in 1H and it failed to hit its forecasts. Other domestic subsidiaries performed approximately in-line with expectations. Overseas Operations in Europe improved, generally outperforming the budget; Performance at JOSEPH came in below forecasts as the business was unable to recover from its 1H weak performance. Jil Sander was in line with expectations. Both sales and profits came in better than anticipated at GIBO’Co, where performance was driven by wholesale revenues from new licensees. Sales in Asia up to Q3 were strong. As of Q4, sales in China fell YoY and while this situation needs monitoring, sales in South Korea and Hong Kong were steady and region-wide Onward was experiencing no real problems. Q2 (1H) FY02/12 Results (Announced on October 7, 2011) 1H (cumulative Q1-Q2) FY02/12 sales declined 2.3% YoY to 113.7 billion yen as consumers pulled back on consumption in the wake of March 2011’s earthquake in Tohoku. Gross profit margin though improved 0.3% (to 47.1% from 46.8% in the same period of FY02/11) thanks to downwardly reviewed royalties on selected licensed apparel brands and other factors. SG&A expense controls further helped profitability leading to a 1.9% YoY increase in operating profit to 1.6 billion yen. Net income though declined 93.4% YoY to 76 million yen due to 1.3 billion yen in extraordinary losses (versus 202 million yen of extraordinary losses in 1H FY02/11). The bulk of extraordinary losses came from 1.1 billion yen of asset retirement obligation accounting provisions. Sales, operating and recurring profits were all better than the company’s original forecast of 112.4 billion yen (actual results 1.2% above forecast); 1.4 billion yen (actual results 14.2% above forecast), and 2.2 billion yen (actual results 12.4% above forecast), respectively. Net income also came in stronger than the originally forecast 500 million yen net loss, as the company sold some land and realized an extraordinary gain of just under 1.1 billion yen. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 49/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 The main subsidiaries’ 1H performance was as follows: Domestic Onward Holdings and Onward Kashiyama Sales of 68.5 billion yen (down 6.1% YoY); operating profit of 1.8 billion yen (up 22.3% YoY) (Note: while Onward Holdings does not generate any sales its costs are grouped with Onward Kashiyama’s). Operating profit beat the original forecast owing to better gross profit margins (lower royalty payments and higher percentage of items sold at full prices) and lower SG&A expenses. Sales of core brands though were in negative territory, declining 3.0% YoY for Nijyusanku; 14.0% for Kumikyoku; 3.0% for Jiyuku, and 4% YoY for ICB. Onward Trading Sales of 7.4 billion yen (down 2.2% YoY); operating profit of 380 million yen (down 38.4% YoY) Profitability declined as orders for both school and work uniforms fell due to March 2011’s Tohoku earthquake and increased production costs in China. Island Sales of 3.9 billion yen (up 12.2% YoY); operating profit of 686 million yen (down 4.5% YoY) Due to YoY base effects from 1H FY02/11 sales (of men’s brands that are no longer carried) profits were down YoY, but sales exceeded the company forecast due to growth in sales at existing stores and new store openings. Chacott Sales of 5.1 billion yen (down 1.0% YoY); operating profit of 409 million yen (up 3.3% YoY) Led by the flagship store, since April a recovery in sales has accelerated and operating profit exceeded the company plan. Creative Yoko Sales of 3.4 billion yen (down 4.0% YoY); operating profit of 99 million yen (down 8.3% YoY) Sales fell short of the company forecast due to the effects of March 2011’s earthquake, but the gross profit margin met company expectations due to solid sales of full price items. Overseas GIBO’Co Sales of 7.2 billion yen (up 25.9% YoY); operating profit of 340 million yen (vs. an operating loss of 31 million yen in 1H FY02/11) Both sales and profits came in better than expected, driven by revenues from new licensees and improved factory utilization helped by the order flow from Onward group companies, such as Jil Sander. Jil Sander Sales of 4.9 billion yen (up 13.6% YoY); operating loss of 669 million yen (vs. an operating loss of 562 million yen in 1H FY02/11) At Jil Sander, gross profit margins improved further thanks to it concentrating its manufacturing at GIBO’Co (as opposed to third party manufacturers). At the same time, expanding retail sales of Jil Sander Navy remained an issue. JOSEPH Sales of 4.2 billion yen (up 1.0% YoY); operating loss of 533 million yen (vs. an operating loss of 461 million yen in 1H FY02/11) Gross profitability improved as the ratio of full-price (non-discounted) items in the sales mix increased. However, poor performance during the key winter-holidays sale period hurt performance, bringing sales in below expectations. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 50/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 The company left its full year FY02/12 forecast unchanged, citing the uncertain environment. Sales of the company’s core domestic unit, Onward Kashiyama, suggest sluggish Q2 performance due to the company’s decision to run its seasonal sale as ususal in July. At the same time a number of competitors started cutting prices earlier, driving consumers towards bargains and away from fully-priced items offerd by Kashiyama. SR Inc. understands the underwhelming performance trend started reversing itself in September and into October. The following is a selection of comments made by Akinori Baba, the new president of Onward Kashiyama, at the 1H FY02/12 results meeting held on October 11, 2011. Under the current harsh business conditions, growth is not possible without higher sales. The company will look to make reforms in its organizational, manufacturing and creative capabilities and leverage these to propel growth in the new three year mid-term that begins from FY02/13. As far as growth goes there is room to expand domestically, as well as overseas. Department stores have been the company’s main distribution channel and the company will continue to strengthen its operations there, as well as moving to bolster its other sales channels. The company’s main products occupy the mass-market segment and have respectable and safe name recognition there. However, there is a sense that the company over the past several years has also failed to create a brand that inspires a sense of fashion. The company owns the Japanese trademark rights for “Opening Ceremony,” an overseas boutique store operator well known in the fashion industry. By using the Opening Ceremony brand we can send a message about how committed our company is to fashion. Jil Sander Navy has been rolled out overseas as an extension apparel line. On visiting Europe in September and discussing with the regional manager, we agreed Jil Sander Navy needs to be pushed harder as a diffusion line. Regarding JOSEPH, the company is aware that European consumers cut back on spending starting in September. However, in addition to Europe, Onward also has overseas operations in North America and Asia and increasing sales in North America and Asia is an urgent task for JOSEPH. J.PRESS is currently the company’s main brand in North America but there are plans to begin sales of ICB in autumn 2012. A design and planning team based in New York has been set up. The company would like to use ICB as a test-bed for exporting a brand to North America and then “importing” it back into Japan. The idea of exporting a brand to North America, and then depending on the circumstances, importing aspects back to Japan is something that could also apply to Asia. Japan and Europe are not the only geographies with the ability to create apparel. The company wants to create a system in which information and products from across its four geographies of operation can flow freely. Q1 FY02/12 Results (Announced on July 8, 2011) Sales were down 4.8% YoY at 61.4 billion yen affected by poor consumer confidence and self-restraint due to March 2011’s Tohoku earthquake. Nonetheless, the company’s gross profit margin improved to 49.6% from 48.9% YoY, lifted by cost controls and its overseas business plan proceeding on track (primarily driven by reviewing overseas brand licensing royalties and inventory controls). Operating profit was up 4.0% YoY at 4.7 billion yen. Net income, however, fell 16.7% YoY to 2.2 billion yen due to the booking of a 1.1 billion yen extraordinary loss from the implementation of accounting standards related to asset retirement obligations (the total extraordinary loss for the period was 1.2 billion yen vs. 156 million yen a year earlier). http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 51/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 According to the company, these results came in better than planned due to two factors: April-May sales at Onward Kashiyama beat forecasts, and on a consolidated-basis cost-cutting was more effective than expected. The company had assumed April-May sales at Onward Kashiyama would be down 6.0% YoY, instead they came in 0.4% higher. Finally, SG&A expenses decreased 4.7% YoY primarily focused on labor and advertising costs at the consolidated level. The company left its 1H and FY02/12 forecast unchanged. June sales at Onward Kashiyama were weak; down 4.0% YoY, and it appears the company was being cautious over Q2 FY02/12 results. Some competitors conducted summer sales ahead of schedule, while the company held sales at the beginning of July as usual, but it appears these were affected by weak consumer confidence. Performance at the company’s main subsidiaries was as follows: Onward Holdings and Onward Kashiyama: 37.0 billion yen in sales (down 7.6% YoY), operating profit 3.8 billion yen (up 3.3% YoY) Onward Trading: 4.3 billion yen in sales (up 1.3% YoY), operating profit 312 million yen (down 20.6% YoY). Island: 1.9 billion yen in sales (up 7.9% YoY), operating profit of 318 million yen (down 16.1% YoY) Across Transport: sales 2.9 billion yen (up 5.4% YoY), operating profit 205 million yen (up 26.5% YoY). JOSEPH: sales of 2.4 billion yen (down 7.6% YoY), operating loss of 322 million yen (vs. previous year operating loss of 363 million yen) GIBO’Co: sales of 3.9 billion yen (up 7.6% YoY), operating income of 308 million yen (up 15.4%) Jil Sander: sales of 2.8 billion yen (up 5.5% YoY), operating income of 42 million yen (vs. previous year operating loss of 49 million yen) Domestic Onward Kashiyama: As mentioned above, results came in above company expectations. Total sales of core brands in Q1 FY02/12 did, however, fall 7.6%. By brand, Nijyusanku sales were down 4.6% YoY; Kumikyoku sales declined 15.6% YoY; ICB sales fell 4.4% YoY and Jiyuku sales were down 7.1% YoY. However, if one stripped out March’s performance due to the Tohoku earthquake, sales for April and May actually rose 1.1% for the core brands with Nijyusanku sales increasing 4.0% YoY for these two months; Kumikyoku sales gained 5.8% YoY; ICB sales rose 2.9% YoY and Jiyuku sales were up 1.3% YoY. Onward Trading: profitability declined as orders for both school and work uniforms fell due to March 2011’s Tohoku earthquake and production costs in China increased. Island: profit declined YoY due to base effects with sales conducted in Q1 FY02/11 year, although the company commented figures came in line with forecasts Across Transport: profitability increased with the acquisition of new contracts Overseas JOSEPH: year-end and new-year bargain sales were weak and results came in below expectations. However, the company said it did not believe the situation was serious given strong sales for full-price items. GIBO’Co: results came in above forecast driven by new license agreements and increasing production rates for group enterprises, such as Jil Sander. Jil Sander: results came in above forecast. FY02/11 Results (Announced on April 8, 2011) Sales, operating and recurring profit all came in above company forecasts driven by its robust http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 52/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 performance of its main brands. Nonetheless, net income came in below the company’s forecast. The company said a 1.3 billion yen write-down on marketable securities was the main cause behind this. Operating income for FY02/11 was up 103.7% YoY at 8.9 billion yen of which Onward Kashiyama (including HD) generated 7.4 billion yen in operating profit (a 24.2% YoY increase) and Island—which became a consolidated subsidiary in December 2009—generated 1.5 billion yen in operating profit. Among its overseas subsidiaries Joseph posted an operating loss of 352 million yen (vs. a 746 million operating loss in the previous year); Jil Sander a 664 million yen operating loss (vs. a 1.9 billion yen operating loss in the previous year), and GIBO’Co recorded an operating profit of 585 million yen (up 13.4%YoY). On the other hand, operating profit at Onward Trading fell 24.7% YoY to 932 million yen, and was down a sharp 71.7% YoY at 80 million yen at Across Transport. Domestic Both sales and operating profit at Onward Kashiyama came in above the company’s projections. The company cited three main drivers for the better-than-forecast results were: Solid performance at core brands (sales at Nijyusanku up 7% YoY, ICB up 5% YoY, Jiyuku also up 5% YoY) Strong sales for its Air Jacket menswear product Expansion of its e-commerce business. Negatives were an 8% YoY decrease in sales at Kumikyoku (one of its core brands) and an unseasonably hot weather that delayed sales of seasonal autumn items. As for other domestic subsidiaries, the company made the following comments: Island: sales and operating profit hit record highs. Onward Trading: profitability declined as the business was hit by lower orders for sales promotion goods and higher production costs in China. Chacott: operating profit was up despite sales not growing as planned. Across Transport: profitability hit by higher costs and oil prices. Overseas Sales were down 8.9% YoY mainly due to currency headwinds but still managed to beat the company’s forecast. The company recorded an operating loss of 100 million yen for its overseas subsidiaries; a significant improvement on the previous year’s 2.1 billion yen operating loss, and better than forecast. Exchange rates negatively impacted the sales performance of foreign subsidiaries to the tune of 5.9 billion yen, adjusting for currency effects sales would have risen 4.1% YoY. In Europe results beat forecasts as the company strengthened its operating base there and consequently improved business performance resulting in a far smaller operating loss. Asia on the other hand was affected by higher Chinese production costs pulling operating income lower and below plans. Regarding its European subsidiaries the company made the following comments: Jil Sander: by shifting production to GIBO’Co there was a significant improvement in gross margin at the label. JOSEPH: a renovation of its flagship store helped boost sales. GIBO’Co: Profitability improved driven by its expanded wholesale business and taking on business from Jil Sander. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 53/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Income Statement Income Statement (million yen) Total Sales YoY CoGS Gross Profit GPM FY02/10 Cons. 248,634 FY02/11 Cons. 244,550 FY02/12 Cons. 242,402 FY02/13 Cons. 258,369 FY02/14 Cons. 279,073 FY02/15 Est. 290,700 4.2% -4.7% -1.6% -0.9% 6.6% 8.0% 134,458 114,176 128,725 115,825 127,288 115,113 133,878 124,490 149,113 129,959 45.9% 47.4% 47.5% 48.2% 46.6% 109,793 106,896 104,159 113,298 120,537 SG&A / Sales 44.2% 43.7% 43.0% 43.9% 43.2% Operating Profit 4,383 8,928 10,953 11,192 9,422 12,300 -51.8% 1.8% 103.7% 3.7% 22.7% 4.5% 2.2% 4.3% -15.8% 3.4% 30.5% 4.2% 4,667 2,929 6,120 4,165 2,597 10,497 3,860 1,484 13,329 3,726 1,514 13,405 4,209 12,211 13,700 -2.6% 2.5% 71.5% 4.3% 27.0% 5.5% 0.6% 5.2% -8.9% 4.4% 12.2% 4.7% 2,419 2,150 4,174 65.3% 27 2,187 486 2,431 5,708 66.7% 120 2,722 1,094 3,353 7,450 67.3% 90 3,529 1,967 7,623 3,188 41.1% 56 4,503 1,129 3,866 4,781 50.5% 34 4,658 5,400 -107.1% 0.9% 24.5% 1.1% 29.6% 1.5% 27.6% 1.7% 3.5% 1.7% 15.9% 1.9% SG&A YoY OPM Non-Operating Income Non-Operating Expenses Recurring Profit YoY RPM Extraordinary Gains Extraordinary Losses Tax Charges Implied Tax Rate Minority Net Income YoY Net Margin Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research The company’s sales rose at approximately 4.5% per year from FY02/02 through FY02/07 (peaking at approximately 319 billion yen in FY02/07) before declining about 22.0% into FY02/10. Gross profit margins have been largely stable (a median of 45.8% GPM within a tight range between 43.4% and 47.5%, FY02/02-FY02/12). Operating profit margins peaked at 8.9% in FY02/05 before declining to 1.8% in FY02/10. The largest factor impacting them has been sales given that the SG&A costs stayed largely unchanged over the period (with labor costs the biggest fixed component). Onward has typically recognized net non-operating profit such as rent and royalties. The large non-operating expense in FY02/09 was due to a FX loss (subsidiary loans arranged in yen to lower the interest costs, backfiring when the yen exchange rate trend suddenly reversed from mid 2007; the practice was officially terminated following the losses). Recurring profit margins have generally tracked changes in operating profit margins. The company has recognized extraordinary losses in the past. The 22.2 billion yen loss in FY02/02 was related to a change in accounting convention (related to retirement benefit obligations). The 17.8 billion yen loss in FY02/07 was partially related to asset impairment charges of the resort business in Guam (approximately 6.1 billion yen). The company recognized a 37.8 billion yen extraordinary loss in FY02/09 largely due to a valuation charge on investment securities (approximately 22.6 billion yen) and impairment losses on goodwill of a UK subsidiary (approximately 11.6 billion yen). http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 54/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Net profit margin peaked in FY02/04 when an accounting change related to pension liabilities provided a 10.5 billion yen extraordinary gain boosting the net income. The net loss in FY02/09 (30.9 billion yen) was due to extraordinary items discussed above. DuPont ROE Analysis Net Profit Margin Asset Turnover Leverage Factor ROE FY02/09 Cons. -11.8% 86.2% 1.70 -17.4% FY02/10 Cons. 0.9% 84.4% 1.86 1.4% FY02/11 Cons. 1.1% 85.2% 1.81 1.7% FY02/12 Cons. 1.5% 86.8% 1.77 2.2% FY02/13 Cons. 1.7% 91.7% 1.75 2.8% FY02/12 Cons. 244,800 242,402 -1.0% 10,200 10,953 7.4% 11,600 13,329 14.9% 3,500 3,529 0.8% FY02/13 Cons. 266,600 258,369 -3.1% 13,800 11,192 -18.9% 15,400 13,405 -13.0% 5,000 4,503 -9.9% Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research Historical Performance vs. Estimates Initial CE vs. Results (million yen) Sales (Initial CE) Sales (Results) Initial CE vs. Results Operating Profit (Initial CE) Operating Profit (Results) Initial CE vs. Results Recurring Profit (Initial CE) Recurring Profit (Results) Initial CE vs. Results Net Profit (Initial CE) Net Profit (Results) Initial CE vs. Results FY02/09 Cons. 291,000 261,005 -10.3% 20,600 9,084 -55.9% 24,200 6,285 -74.0% 12,400 -30,895 - FY02/10 Cons. 252,600 248,634 -1.6% 8,000 4,383 -45.2% 10,000 6,120 -38.8% 3,600 2,187 -39.3% FY02/11 Cons. 250,000 244,550 -2.2% 6,600 8,928 35.3% 9,000 10,497 16.6% 3,500 2,722 -22.2% Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 55/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Balance Sheet Balance Sheet (million yen) ASSETS Cash and Equivalents Accounts Receivable Allowance for Doubtful Inventories Prepaid Expenses Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Buildings, Land Acc. Depreciation Other Fixed Acc. Depreciation Total Tangible Assets Investments LT Loans LT Prepaid Expenses Deferred Tax Assets Other Allowance for Doubtful Total Other Fixed Assets Goodwill Other Total Intangible Assets Total Fixed Assets Total Assets LIABILITIES Accounts Payable Short-Term Debt Corporate Taxes Payable Allowance for Loss on Unsold Inventory Reserve for Bonuses Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Long-Term Debt Allowance Valuation-Based Deferred Tax Liabilities Other Fixed Liabilities Total Long-Term Liabilities Total Interest-Bearing Debt Total Liabilities Issued Capital Reserves Retained Earnings Treasury Stock Valuation and Translation Adjustments Share-Purchase Warrants Minority Interests Total Shareholder Equity (Net Assets) Working Capital Interest-Bearing Debt Net Debt FY02/10 Cons. FY02/11 Cons. FY02/12 Cons. FY02/13 Cons. FY02/14 Cons. 34,330 25,730 -862 30,893 4,238 6,348 100,680 131,920 50,294 26,340 18,225 89,741 31,193 4,969 881 5,529 12,001 -3,240 51,335 47,417 3,393 50,811 191,888 292,568 30,939 25,399 -723 30,356 4,074 5,499 95,544 129,380 50,748 25,827 17,836 86,622 34,592 4,839 750 5,627 9,273 -2,354 52,729 43,731 3,014 46,745 186,097 281,642 33,192 25,256 -387 31,443 3,820 5,571 98,895 125,904 52,092 27,562 18,386 82,987 35,179 5,028 743 4,495 8,916 -2,801 51,561 40,793 2,701 43,495 178,044 276,939 24,677 25,863 -452 34,476 7,931 7,826 100,321 128,633 52,891 30,797 19,678 86,861 42,730 5,275 1,212 3,600 13,862 -2,541 64,138 32,769 2,688 35,457 186,458 286,779 27,375 28,250 -635 40,678 5,108 9,573 110,349 137,044 52,879 41,161 22,448 102,878 49,161 5,446 1,182 3,079 10,028 -2,971 65,926 29,740 4,535 34,276 203,081 313,430 35,961 35,697 4,085 545 1,830 12,806 90,929 24,571 3,395 5,949 9,558 43,475 60,268 134,404 30,079 50,043 118,816 -23,489 -18,949 412 1,251 158,164 19,800 60,268 25,938 32,703 30,886 4,533 869 1,867 11,819 82,677 22,665 3,587 5,941 8,027 40,220 53,551 122,898 30,079 50,043 117,776 -23,445 -17,405 532 1,163 158,744 23,052 53,551 22,612 33,238 29,865 5,699 513 1,266 13,510 84,091 19,730 4,261 3,966 7,588 35,545 49,595 119,636 30,079 50,043 119,524 -23,326 -20,327 653 656 157,302 23,461 49,595 16,403 33,512 47,581 4,829 528 1,289 13,001 100,740 1,573 3,210 3,966 11,917 20,666 49,154 121,407 30,079 50,043 120,164 -23,146 -13,420 724 926 165,372 26,827 49,154 24,477 38,305 44,956 955 496 1,286 15,011 101,009 14,051 3,556 3,966 15,818 37,391 59,007 138,401 30,079 50,043 121,007 -23,052 -4,981 823 1,109 175,028 30,623 59,007 31,632 Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 56/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 The company’s capital structure has been mostly equity from FY02/02-FY02/12.The company has used debt financing in the past, typically short term (repaid all long term debt from in FY02/02; used more in FY02/09). The balance sheet has been highly liquid (current ratio above 100% from FY02/02 through FY02/12). The company has typically held a high cash balance (exceeding working capital requirements). Assets The asset base for the company has historically been dominated by fixed assets (tangible assets related to sales activities and other fixed assets such as investments and long term loans). The company’s M&A activity in FY02/06 and FY02/09 has resulted in substantial amounts of goodwill on the balance sheet. Adjusting (removing) goodwill from the balance sheet reveals a different liquidity profile: current assets (cash and working capital) are the largest group of assets. Onward does not own manufacturing facilities (see Business Model), therefore working capital is an important component of the business model. Liabilities Liquidity of liabilities mirrors assets; current liabilities have historically been over 80% of total liabilities (from FY02/02 through FY02/12). Current liabilities have been mostly working capital, however the company’s use of short term debt has been an increasingly large component in current liabilities. Short term debt as of FY02/10 was bank loans. The company seems to have shifted to using all short term debt in FY02/02 (total debt / assets was similar pre-2002, but the composition of short term debt increased), matching the short-term cycle of the business model. The company added long term debt in FY02/09, lowering the equity ratio from levels seen during FY02/02-FY02/07. Net Assets Shareholders’ equity has generally increased with net income (net dividend payments) from FY02/02 through FY02/08. A net 11.0 billion in valuation charge in FY02/07 (mostly related to land) offset net income for the year, and a net 28.5 billion yen charge in FY02/08 (9.7 billion yen related to securities and 18.6 billion yen of minority interest decreases) caused a 27.5 billion yen decline in net assets. The company has also been a buyer of its own stock: purchasing approximately 5.3 billion yen in FY02/04, approximately 9.4 billion yen in FY02/06, and approximately 7 billion yen in FY02/08. Per Share Data Per Share Data (yen) No. of Shares (thousand) Earnings Per Share EPS (Fully Diluted) Dividend Per Share Book Value Per Share FY02/09 Cons. 172,922 -197.2 -197.2 30.0 1,001.4 FY02/10 Cons. 172,922 14.0 13.9 24.0 999.0 FY02/11 Cons. 172,922 17.4 17.3 24.0 1,002.3 FY02/12 Cons. 172,922 22.5 22.4 24.0 995.1 FY02/13 Cons. 172,922 28.7 28.5 24.0 1,043.6 Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 57/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Cash Flow Statement Cash Flow Statement (million yen) Operating Cash Flow (1) Investment Cash Flow (2) Free Cash Flow (1+2) Financial Cash Flow Depreciation & Amortization (A) Capital Expenditures (B) Working Capital Changes (C) Simple FCF (NI + A + B - C) FY02/09 Cons. 10,839 -40,950 -30,111 17,971 8,386 -2,793 1,081 -26,383 FY02/10 Cons. 14,057 -25 14,032 -4,889 9,149 -2,967 -596 8,965 FY02/11 Cons. 11,206 -5,151 6,055 -9,271 9,279 -2,977 3,252 5,772 FY02/12 Cons. 13,180 -1,961 11,219 -7,449 9,142 590 409 12,852 FY02/13 Cons. 10,137 -10,682 -545 -7,848 9,658 -6,387 3,366 4,408 Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research Operating Cash Flow The largest component of OCF has historically been net income (a median of 41.4% of from FY02/02 through FY02/12), illustrating the cash generating nature of the company’s business model. OCF in FY02/04 was the result of strong net income growth along with a reduction in working capital (payables increased 4.9 billion, reversing a decrease of 2.4 billion yen the previous year). OCF in FY02/06 grew YoY due to timing related to FY02/04 taxes (paid in FY02/05), creating the appearance of volatility which was not due to core earnings. OCF was positive in FY02/09 despite a net loss of 30.9 billion yen. This was in part due to sizeable non-cash charges (22.6 billion yen securities write-down, 13.0 billion yen impairment losses). Investment Cash Flow FY02/06 investment cash flow of 37 billion yen was related to the purchase of the JOSEPH Group (16.9 billion yen) and the purchase of investment securities (13.3 billion yen). Investment cash flow in FY02/08 was due in part to the sale of Impact 21 (6.3 billion yen outflow). Investment cash flow in FY02/09 was largely due to the purchase of Jil Sander (26.6 billion yen) and Creative Yoko (6.7 billion yen). Financial Cash Flow The relatively large outflow in FY02/03 was mostly due to paying down debt (approximately 9.4 billion yen short-term, 2.1 long-term). The outflow in FY02/04 was due to a share buyback (5.3 billion yen) and repayment of short term debt (3.1 billion yen). Outflows in FY02/06 and FY02/08 were also the result of buybacks (9.4 and 7.0 billion yen, respectively). The inflow in FY02/09 was the result of a long term credit facility (approximately 33 billion yen) to finance M&A. Simple Cash Flow In terms of simple free cash flow the company has typically generated relatively large amounts, yielding a median of 5.5% per year (on average net assets, FY02/02-FY02/12). http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 58/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Cash Converison Cycle Accounts Receivable Turnover Days in Accounts Receivable Inventory Turnover Days in Inventory Payables Turnover Days in Payables Cash Conversion Cycle (days) FY02/09 Cons. 9.6 38.0 4.3 85.7 3.5 104.5 19.2 FY02/10 Cons. 9.7 37.5 4.2 87.8 3.6 102.6 22.7 FY02/11 Cons. 9.6 38.2 4.2 86.8 3.7 97.3 27.6 FY02/12 Cons. 9.6 38.1 4.1 88.6 3.9 94.5 32.2 FY02/13 Cons. 10.1 36.1 4.1 89.9 4.0 91.0 35.0 Figures may differ from company materials due to differences in rounding methods. Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research The company has typically been efficient with cash conversion. Total days in cash increased from FY02/08 through FY02/12 due to lower inventory turnover. Other Information History October 1927. March 1947. October 1960. July 1964. September 1988. January 1990. May 2005. September 2007. October 2008. October 2008. December 2009. April 2012. Established as Kashiyama Shoten (Kashiyama Trading) in Osaka. Company name changed to Kashiyama Kogyo (Kashiyama Co., Ltd.) Listed on the 2nd Section of the Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya Stock Exchange Listed on the 1st Section of the Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya Stock Exchange Company Name changed to Onward Kashiyama Co., Ltd. Acquired GIBO SA Acquired UK fashion label JOSEPH Established Onward Holdings Co., Ltd. Acquired CREATIVE YOKO Co., Ltd. Acquired Jil Sander S.p.A. Acquired Island Co., Ltd. Acquired Birz Association Co., Ltd. “Kashiyama” comes from its founder Junzo Kashiyama, who initially worked as an unpaid apprentice for Mitsukoshi kimono mercer (currently department store Mitsukoshi). In 1927, he set up his own apparel company called Kashiyama Shoten. Shortly after the Second World War, the company started making and selling ready-to-wear men’s suits. Women’s suits were added in 1960. The company grew together with the Japanese economy and with fashion tastes (from tailored clothing to readymade). Onward has always had a main focus on one business: fashion apparel, which has been key in establishing durable relationships with department stores. In recent years Onward has heavily invested in overseas businesses by acquiring international labels such as Joseph in 2005, and Jil Sander in 2008. News & Topics May 2012 On May 29, 2012, Onward Holdings issued a press release titled “Onward Holdings’ Approach to Reduction of Minimum Trading Unit for Its Stock.” http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 59/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 According to the release, the company recognizes the importance of measures to maintain high liquidity in stock trading, encourage long-term stock holdings, and expand shareholder base. In line with such recognition, the company sees the reduction of stock trading unit as an effective measure. Accordingly, the company maintained that it would continue to examine the feasibility of the measure with due consideration given to the price of its stock, shareholder numbers and stock market trends. March 2012 On March 16, 2012, the company announced that it would acquire all the shares in Birz Association Ltd., Birz Village Ltd. and NAIMA Ltd. (collectively referred to as Birz Group hereafter) on April 1, 2012. Birz Group owns the brands Language, Smork by Language, Libre, AGOSTO and Ylang Ylang, which have been focused on retailing at commercial buildings in train stations and fashion malls across Japan. The group is particularly strong in using overseas production (such as through its factories in Vietnam etc.) and has positioned itself as a vertically integrated, low cost producer of quality apparel. Onward hoped it would be able to grow Birz Group’s profitability by leveraging its own operational infrastructure, knowhow and global network. In addition it noted the acquisition should help drive its business expansion and reap operational synergies, such as through store locations, product procurement, overseas factory utilization etc. February 2012 On February 24, 2012, Onward’s subsidiary Jil Sander Italia SPA announced that its brand founder, Jil Sander, had returned to the company as creative director. August 2011 On August 26, 2011, the company announced that its board had passed a resolution to change its president and directors. The changes were as follows (effective as of September 1, 2011): Onward Holdings Co.: Takeshi Hirouchi—New Position: Chairman and President; current position: Chairman Kentaro Mizuno—New Position: Vice Chairman; current position: President Kazuya Baba—New Position: Executive Vice President; current position: Vice President Onward Kashiyama Co.: Akinori Baba—New Position: Representative Director and President; current position: Managing Executive Director Kentaro Mizuno—to step down from current position as Representative Director and President Kazuya Baba—to step down from current position as Senior Executive Vice President The company said it was implementing the new management structure as part of its strategy to promote its global growth. For further details on Onward Kashiyama’s new president please refer to the Top Management section. March 2011 On March 16, 2011, the company made an announcement regarding the March 11 Tohoku earthquake. Damage situation report: http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 60/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 A portion of the company’s plants and sales floors sustained damage to their buildings, and some merchandise fell to the floor and was soiled or otherwise damaged. Some areas in Japan were lacking essential utilities, especially in Tohoku (northeastern Japan). The company didn’t announce plans for refurbishing and reopening affected sales floors, and had temporarily closed or shortened operating hours of others. April 2010 On April 12, 2010, the Jil Sander Group announced the launch of a new line called Jil Sander Navy, an important strategic step in development of the Jil Sander brand. Jil Sander Navy is an extension of the core Jil Sander brand seeking to approach new types of customers and expand the appeal for the existing customers by emphasizing sports casual elements and lower price points. Characterized by pure and simple line and ease of wear, the product range includes core outerwear, light jersey, and easy-to-wear knitwear as well as a line of accessories such as handbags, footwear and belts. The collection was shown on June 2010 and the sales are planned to start simultaneously worldwide in 2011 season. The emphasis of the launch is on the US and Japanese markets. Top Management Onward Holdings Takeshi Hirouchi, representative director and chairman and president, was born in 1942 and joined the company in 1965. He became director in 1985, managing director in 1991, senior managing director in 1994 and representative director and president in March 1997. He became representative director and chairman in March 2005. Due to transition to a holding-company structure in September 2007, he became chairman and CEO of Onward Holdings Co., Ltd. while continuing to serve as representative director, chairman of newly established Onward Kashiyama Co., Ltd. Since September 2009 he has served as both president and chairman of the company. Onward Kashiyama Akinori Baba, representative director and president, was born in 1968 and joined the company in 1990. In 2004 he became an executive officer at Onward Kashiyama and the division director of Nijyusanku and in 2005 a corporate executive officer at Onward Kashiyama and the division director of Nijyusanku and ICB. In 2010 he became managing executive director of the ladies business, division director of Nijyusanku, ICB, Jiyuku, and Kumikyoku. In September 2011 he gained the current posts while retaining his role as division director. Employees Onward employed 3,993 full-time (11,824 part-time) employees as of FY02/12 on a consolidated basis. There were 36 employees at the parent level: average age 45.3, with the company for 19.5 years, and earning a salary of 9.6 million yen. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 61/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Major Shareholders Top Shareholders Kashiyama Scholarship Foundation Japan Trustee Services Bank, Ltd. (Trust account) Nippon Life Insurance Company The Master Trust Bank of Japan, Ltd. (Trust account) Isetan Mitsukoshi Ltd. The Dai-ichi Mutual Life Insurance Company, Ltd. Japan Trustee Services Bank, Ltd. (Trust account 9G) Onward Holdings Customers' Shareholding Association MARUI GROUP CO., LTD. Northern Trust Co. AVFC Re U.S. Tax Exempted Pension Funds Source: Company data, SR Inc. Research Amount Held 5.03% 3.90% 3.60% 3.41% 2.89% 2.42% 2.26% 2.03% 1.97% 1.70% (As of February 28, 2013) Dividends The company has a stated minimum 35% payout ratio, however the company also paid a dividend in FY02/09 when EPS was negative. Investor Relations Result meetings are held in Tokyo after the announcement of interim and fiscal year end results. The company maintains an IR website in both English and Japanese. By The Way The name Onward, added in 1962 was derived from a Christian hymn (“Onward Christian Soldiers”) that Junzo Kashiyama, the founder, liked. http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 62/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 Company Profile Company Name Onward Holdings Co., Ltd. Head Office Toda Building 4th Floor 1-7-1 Kyobashi Chuo-ku Tokyo, Japan 104-8329 Listed On Phone +81-3-4512-1020 Tokyo Stock Exchange 1st Section Nagoya Stock Exchange 1st Section Exchange Listing October 2, 1961 Fiscal Year-End February IR Web http://www.onward-hd.co.jp/site/english/ir/message.html IR Phone +81-3-4512-1051 Established September 4, 1947 Website http://www.onward-hd.co.jp/site/english/ IR Contact IR Mail Main Consolidated Segments (% of total sales) Apparel-related 93.93 % Others 6.07 % (as of February 2013) Directors Takeshi Hirouchi, Representative Director, Chairman, and President Masaaki Yoshizawa, Managing Director Kenichi Iizuka, Senior Corporate Director Akinori Baba, Director Hiroaki Yamada, Director Hachiro Honjo, Director (Outside) Yoshihide Nakamura, Director (Outside) Hitoshi Aoyama, Full-time Corporate Auditor Kenichiro Tamai, Full-time Corporate Auditor Others 2 directors (as of May 2013) Employees (consol.) Employees (parent) Average age (parent) Average salary (parent) 5,208 33 45.2 years 9.4 million yen (as of February 2013) http://www.sharedresearch.jp/ Shares Outstanding (including treasury shares) 172,922,000 shares (as of February 2013) Shareholders Capital 30.1 billion yen (as of February 2013) Main Subsidiaries Onward Kashiyama Co., Ltd. Onward Trading Co., Ltd. Chacott Co., Ltd. Creative Yoko Co., Ltd. ISLAND, Co., Ltd. Main Banks Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. The Banking of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd. Mizuho Bank, Ltd. Auditors Ernst & Young ShinNihon LLC Copyright (C) 2013 Shared Research Inc. All Rights Reserved 63/64 Onward Holdings Co Ltd (8016) SR Research Report 2014/4/4 About Shared Research Inc. We offer corporate clients comprehensive report coverage, a service that allows them to better inform investors and other stakeholders by presenting a continuously updated third-party view of business fundamentals, independent of investment biases. Shared Research can be found on the web at http://www.sharedresearch.jp. Current Client Coverage of Shared Research Inc.: Accretive Co., Ltd. Fields Corp. Onward Holdings Co., Inc. AEON DELIGHT Co. FreeBit Co., Ltd. Panasonic Information Systems Co. Ai Holdings Corp. Gamecard-Joyco Holdings, Inc. Paris Miki Holdings Inc. Anritsu Corporation GCA Savvian Corporation Pigeon Corp. Apamanshop Holdings Co., Ltd. Grandy House Corp. Resorttrust, Inc. ArtSpark Holdings Inc. Gulliver International Co., Ltd. Round One Corp. Axell Corporation Happinet Corporation Sanix Incorporated BALS Corporation Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. Sanrio Co., Ltd. Bell-Park Co., Ltd. Infomart Corp. SATO Holdings Corp. Benefit One Inc. Intelligent Wave Inc. Ship Healthcare Holdings Inc. Canon Marketing Japan Inc. ITO EN, Ltd. SMS Co., Ltd. Chiome Bioscience Inc. J Trust Co., Ltd Star Mica Co., Ltd. Chiyoda Co., Ltd. Japan Best Rescue Co., Ltd. Takashimaya Co., Ltd. Comsys Holdings Corporation JIN Co., Ltd. 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