lexmark - Grey Value Management
Transcription
lexmark - Grey Value Management
L EXMARK (LXK): D ISAPPEARING I NK … P ROFITS 2009 / $89 (S H OR T ) WWW.GREYVM.COM © PROPERTY OF GREY VALUE MANAGEMENT, LLC 1 Synopsis Warren Buffet once suggested that the long-term prospects of a company are largely determined by the degree to which it can be characterized as a franchise or a commodity business. Lexmark’s position on that spectrum of relative pricing power is the centerpiece of this analysis. Lexmark (“LXK,” or the “Company”) wandered onto my radar back in 2003, after I happened across a brief article about the Company’s litigation with a small North Carolina entity called Static Control Components (“SCC”). A detailed discussion of that litigation follows herein, but what struck me at the outset was how intensely Lexmark was pursuing a tiny southern company I had never heard of. It didn’t take much digging to discover that a profound change was sweeping across the printer supply industry. I began shorting LXK shares at the $89 level during the first week of December 2004. It’s very important to note that I did so despite recognizing that, based upon the financial fundamentals, Lexmark was anything but an obvious short. It had excellent cash flow and a balance sheet enviably devoid of debt. However, the industry within which it competed was experiencing a tectonic shift which would dramatically impact LXK’s business fundamentals: Ordinary printer consumables (ink, toner, etc.), the source of 80% of its profits, had begun what appeared to be an inexorable slide from being unique, franchise products to commodities. It could only be a matter of time before the financials reflected this transition. It was my thesis that going forward a great fissure would cleave the industry in two. The high-margin, premium product market would be dominated by a small handful of companies investing enormous sums in R&D, while those without billion-dollar research budgets would struggle to distinguish products their customers would increasingly be inclined to view as commodities, causing pricing power and margins to decline accordingly. This was already in evidence, catalyzed by the remarkable growth of the aftermarket in remanufactured parts and generic ink. And yet, although store-brand and generic ink substitutes were readily available, most retail customers hadn’t begun basing their purchase decisions on the “true” cost of printing – the cost per page, which included ink and paper as well as the printer itself. This metric was already common among commercial buyers, who were applying the same costbenefit analysis they’d been utilizing for copying service contracts for years. Consumers however remained largely unaware, for the most part choosing products based on simple sticker price comparisons. It seemed inevitable that, as the price of ink continued to rise and all categories of buyers became more savvy, purchases would increasingly be driven by some form of page-based pricing. With the OEMs aggressively pursuing advertising campaigns and promotional strategies such as bundling ink with other products (premium papers, etc.), the cost-per-page mentality naturally wouldn’t be adopted uniformly or in linear fashion. The OEMs would fight it tooth and nail. But the commoditization of printer consumables, excluding high end products, was here to stay. While Lexmark’s R&D talent might save the day, Hewlett-Packard had already very publicly committed its vast financial resources to seizing the high ground, and they weren’t alone. With Dell and others migrating into the low-price territory, Lexmark faced a fierce battle at almost every price point. The likelihood of accruing above-average returns on capital in either scenario was quite low; LXK was gradually devolving from a strong franchise into a weak one, or worse. Notwithstanding all of the above, faltering fundamentals alone are never sufficient to justify a short position. Two further elements are absolutely essential: (1) a substantial mispricing and (2) a catalyst. There was no question that Lexmark was dramatically mispriced relative to the transparent deterioration in its core business. In many respects it was priced for perfection; at nearly $90 per share, it was trading at 22.5 times estimated earnings. By way of comparison, General Electric, everyone’s favorite blue chip at the time, was trading at 17.5 times earnings. And unlike some purely speculative internet company that could trade at any conceivable price, because Lexmark was a real business with a substantial operating history, its valuation was for the most part a hostage to conventional investment metrics. If the “E” didn’t continue to justify the “P” of the P/E ratio, the price would recalibrate lower to reflect the decline in performance. As for the catalyst, all of the research described herein confirmed that pricing pressure had escalated to the point that the Company wouldn’t merely miss earnings, but would deliver a disappointment of such scope that even its most ardent fans would have to concede that the business was fundamentally in trouble, and that its entire enterprise value would have to be revisited and ultimately revised down. The Company had arguably signaled that bad news was WWW.GREYVM.COM © PROPERTY OF GREY VALUE MANAGEMENT, LLC 2 imminent; a close read of its SEC filings revealed countless, very explicit portents. But by all indications – especially the price – investors either weren’t paying attention or refused to acknowledge the underlying reality. In summary: 1. Even in a benign competitive environment, Lexmark was fundamentally overvalued. Of course, a company that is merely overvalued can become much more overvalued (Amazon, et.al.), but… 2. The industry within which it competed was undergoing a margin-crushing shift, which Lexmark couldn’t possibly escape. The bottom line would take a hit, and the stock price along with it. Peak of Investor Denial December 2004: Began Shorting LXK Disclosure This document summarizes a much longer analysis originally generated in 2004. Excluding historical stock price data, it has not been updated to reflect subsequent developments. Please see Disclaimer on the final page. WWW.GREYVM.COM © PROPERTY OF GREY VALUE MANAGEMENT, LLC 3 A Sidebar on Shorting It may seem out of character for an avowed disciple of the Graham-Dodd-Buffett Value Investing Trinity to be shorting a stock, but the two practices are less conflicted than they might seem. To begin with, whether a stock is under- or over-priced relative to its intrinsic value has no bearing on the calculation of that intrinsic value. The current trading price only serves as a reference point for gauging the premium or discount to intrinsic value; it doesn’t influence that value. If the risks inherent in shorting are misunderstood or overstated, it’s likely because most investors aren’t sufficiently rigorous whether they’re going long or short. Warren Buffett has said that the bargain in buying a stock should be so obvious that it’s like seeing a bag of money in the corner of the room and simply picking it up. The same standard applies to going short. In the end, neither is advisable unless the outcome appears ordained. The threshold of rigour and certainty is the same. There are certainly challenges unique to shorting. Markets generally tend to rise over time, and stocks that are overvalued can remain so for a very long stretch. They can also become even more overvalued, particularly when the investment community has decided that the conventional value metrics for some reason no longer apply (think of the tech bubble, the Nifty Fifty, etc.). These, among others, are all good reasons to never break the cardinal rule of shorting: Never short overvaluation alone – there must be a foreseeable, material, inescapable catalyst. This catalyst must be sufficiently significant to compel a re-pricing of the company, and thus should have all the subtlety of a grand piano dropping 10 stories onto a gopher. It can be as dramatic as fraud, or as basic as a fundamental breakdown in the business model. However the event might be described, the key is that it represent an inarguable and very significant impairment of value. As described above, in the case of Lexmark the catalyst came down to an earnings miss, the size and cause of which would make it impossible to deny that the business model was falling victim to a tectonic, irreversible industry shift. Investors would be forced to acknowledge that the franchise they thought they owned was rapidly becoming a commodity business. Both their expectations and the stock price would accordingly have to adjust. It is important to note the margin of safety inherent in Lexmark’s lofty price was absolutely critical to the construction of this trade. The risk/reward that made the trade advisable at $90 was absent at $70. Every short position is subject to interim rallies; the key is to short the stock at a price so elevated that the risk of permanent or even substantial interim losses is minimal. Following this last piece of advice frequently requires not pursuing the trade at all; LXK was truly a unique opportunity. WWW.GREYVM.COM © PROPERTY OF GREY VALUE MANAGEMENT, LLC 4 Background: A Catalyst to Curiosity As mentioned in the Synopsis, my interest in Lexmark as a possible short emerged in early 2003. One morning I came across an article recounting a development in litigation between the Company and a small North Carolina enterprise called Static Control Components. Though I didn’t immediately realize it, viewing Lexmark through the lens of this litigation was fundamental to fully comprehending the threats it faced. Lexmark operates under a classic razor/razor blades business paradigm. That is, like a company that produces razors but makes most of its profits selling blades, LXK manufactured printers but made most of its money on the ink and toner that its customers burned through with speedy regularity. The Company's filings at the time explicitly stated that 56% of its revenue and a full 80% of LXK’s profit came from ink and toner supplies. Needless to say, any developments that might cause their ink/toner supply business to materially deteriorate would undermine those profits. The market had bestowed a very rich multiple (as high as approximately 27.5X) on a company whose growth, while hardly anemic, was less than overwhelming. It was, however, generating significant amounts of cash, and it certainly didn’t possess the balance sheet of an obvious short; LXK had almost no debt, and with a demonstrated ability to generate impressive free cash flow, it fit the profile of the kind of stock capable of crushing the careless skeptic. Even if I was right about the Company being overvalued, I nonetheless had to be wary of it escalating in price, a suspicion fulfilled when the stock cleared $90 even as I had begun shorting it. The short interest was about 7.3 million shares at the time, but many of those shares could have been components of hedges or arbitrage strategies rather than outright short positions. Still, the fissure I perceived in the foundation of the business model kept me digging. 2002 -------- 2001 -------- 2000 -------- 1999 -------- 1998 -------- STATEMENT OF EARNINGS DATA: ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Revenue (1)........................................... $4,356.4 $4,104.3 $3,767.3 $3,413.7 $2,978.2 Compound Revenue growth of 8% over the last 5 years? Cost of revenue (2)................................... 2,985.8 2,865.3 2,550.9 2,222.8 1,934.4 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Gross profit.......................................... 1,370.6 1,239.0 1,216.4 1,190.9 1,043.8 Compound Gross Profit growth of 5.6% over the last 5 years in a market experiencing slowing growth overall? ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Research and development.............................. 247.9 246.2 216.5 183.6 158.5 Selling, general and administrative (1)............... 617.8 593.4 542.9 530.7 502.5 Restructuring and related (reversal) charges (2) (3) (4)................................................. (5.9) 58.4 41.3 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Operating expense..................................... 859.8 898.0 800.7 714.3 661.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Operating income...................................... 510.8 341.0 415.7 476.6 382.8 Compound Operating Income growth of 6% over the last 5 years? Interest expense...................................... 9.0 14.8 12.8 10.7 11.0 Other................................................. 6.2 8.4 6.5 7.0 6.4 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Earnings before income taxes.......................... 495.6 317.8 396.4 458.9 365.4 Provision for income taxes (5)........................ 128.9 44.2 111.0 140.4 122.4 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Net earnings.......................................... $ 366.7 $ 273.6 $ 285.4 $ 318.5 $ 243.0 Compound Net Profit growth of 8.5% over the last 5 years? Diluted net earnings per common share (6)............. $ 2.79 $ 2.05 $ 2.13 $ 2.32 $ 1.70 Shares used in per share calculation (6).............. 131.6 133.8 134.3 137.5 142.8 STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION DATA: ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Working capital....................................... $ 699.8 $ 562.0 $ 264.7 $ 353.2 $ 414.3 Total assets.......................................... 2,808.1 2,449.9 2,073.2 1,702.6 1,483.4 Total debt............................................ 161.5 160.1 148.9 164.9 160.4 Stockholders' equity.................................. 1,081.6 1,075.9 777.0 659.1 578.1 OTHER KEY DATA: ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Cash from operations (7).............................. $ 815.6 $ 195.7 $ 476.3 $ 448.2 $ 300.3 Capital expenditures.................................. $ 111.7 $ 214.4 $ 296.8 $ 220.4 $ 101.7 Debt to total capital ratio (8)....................... 13% 13% 16% 20% 22% Number of employees (9)............................... 12,068 12,724 13,035 10,933 8,835 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WWW.GREYVM.COM © PROPERTY OF GREY VALUE MANAGEMENT, LLC 5 There were naturally specific datapoints in the filings that drew my interest. Per the below, the footnotes to the 2002 10K included the following: "(7) Cash flows from investing and financing activities, which are not presented, are integral components of total cash flow activity" (emphasis mine). The phrase "integral components" in particular caught my eye. How much of total cash flow came from investing and financing activities, versus the business they were actually in? The market for printer supplies, the fountainhead of Lexmark’s profits, is fundamentally divided between the OEMs and the generics/off-market competitors. Beneath that basic dichotomy, the market fragments into a vast and very specialized ecosystem, including but not limited to: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. The companies that manufacture the chips necessary for non-OEM cartridges to function with OEM printers Sellers of toner cartridges that are remanufactured in house Sellers of remanufactured toner cartridges purchased from an outsourcer Sellers of inkjet cartridges that are recycled in house Sellers of recycled/compatible inkjet cartridges purchased from an outsourcer Sellers of new or remanufactured ribbons Sellers of new OEM cartridges (either toner or ink) Sellers of components for cartridges or printers Providers of printer/copier/computer service Sellers of new hardware (printers, copiers, faxes, etc.) Sellers of refurbished hardware (printers, copiers, faxes, etc.) Sellers of MICR products Brokers for empties/cores In addition to Lexmark’s SEC filings, my investigation of the industry included many hours immersed in the archives of Recharger Magazine, the industry bible of the aftermarket providers. After reading every back issue I could access, I followed up by visiting and/or speaking with as many industry participants as I could, including the storefront cartridge refillers that were cropping up quietly but quickly on side streets and strip malls across the US. I made it a point to speak with as many of the refiller’s customers as I could, canvassing them in the guise of a fellow customer (which technically I was – I started using refilled cartridges as well) to find out if they were satisfied, likely to return as customers, etc. Altogether I spent over 200 hours analyzing every aspect of Lexmark’s predicament. To some this may sound like an investor version of Stockholm Syndrome, but any accusations of overkill must be weighed against the potential losses arising from an overlooked but critical piece of information or insight. As I’ve mentioned elsewhere, few habits in investing are as dangerous as dismissing what is unknown as unimportant. Provided the investor is able to distinguish material facts from general information, there’s little downside to learning what in retrospect proves to be informative but ancillary. It’s just work. WWW.GREYVM.COM © PROPERTY OF GREY VALUE MANAGEMENT, LLC 6 A Fading Franchise: Lexmark and Its Industry In the course of my research it very quickly became clear that Lexmark was fighting a rearguard legal action against SCC in order to defend its pricing power. A resilient franchise offers many advantages over a commodity business. In addition to the ability to withstand not immodest management missteps (remember New Coke? American Express?), franchises typically enjoy higher margins than their competition. Put another way, the strength of any franchise is a reflection of its pricing power, or susceptibility to commoditization. As the graphic below illustrates, this is of course a matter of degree. The question was: Where did Lexmark sit along that spectrum of pricing strength, and where was it headed? Commodity Low Margins High Margins Numerous Substitute Products Few or No Substitute Products Less Pricing Flexibility More Pricing Flexibility Franchise Although the razor/razor blades analogy was endlessly cited in explaining Lexmark’s business model, in many respects it was not only an oversimplification but dangerously misleading. The fact that printer cartridges were consumable did not make them a consumer product with the same brand affinity and characteristics as a razor blade one slides across the jugular. Lexmark was at war with SCC precisely because substitute products were succeeding. This was why its revenue was rising on increasing unit volumes rather than higher prices. While it might be difficult to pinpoint Lexmark’s position on the commodity/franchise spectrum, the quality of its revenue and earnings clearly indicated where it was trending. The impressive top-line growth that apparently for some obscured Lexmark’s declining earnings quality was facilitated by the rapid expansion of what was already a massive market. When I began my research in 2002 the ink and toner market in the US alone was worth $28.5 billion, and in 2003 estimated worldwide revenue for the office and home printing hardware and associated supplies market, including monochrome (black) and color laser, inkjet and dot matrix printers, exceeded $40 billion. At the time H-P was by far the largest supplier, with 41% of the market, although it purchased its laser engines and cartridges from a third party. The aftermarket ink suppliers were coming on strong, capturing as much as 20% of the global market, with competition in the supplies business and lower yields overall pushing US inkjet prices down about 15 per cent over the preceding two years. The trends in the installed hardware base were naturally critical because they drove the consumables market. In the laser printer market H-P dominated, holding approximately 50% market share, with Lexmark second and Canon, Xerox, Brother and Minolta sharing the remainder. In inkjet printers, Hewlett-Packard, Epson and Canon together accounted for approximately 80% of worldwide sales. Large, well-heeled competitors were also moving in from adjacent markets, especially as the multi-function machines (or “all-in-one” products) now common were just beginning to gain traction. As LXK observed in its 2002 10-K: As the output environment continues to evolve to include print/copy/scan and fax, Lexmark is encountering new competitors as copier companies move into the distributed print market space. This converging marketplace is highly competitive and includes traditional laser competitors and large copier companies such as Canon, Ricoh and Xerox. Fueled by expanding aggregate demand, Lexmark wasn’t struggling to deliver unit growth. At the end of 2002 LXK estimated its installed base of laser printers at 4.9 million units versus 4.4 million units at year-end 2001, and its installed base of inkjet printers had expanded to 45 million units versus 37 million units during the same period. And Lexmark had in fact doubled its unit market share in inkjets over the preceding four years. But that growth had come at a cost; management acknowledged not only that price reductions had caused color inkjet printer revenue growth to trail unit growth, but that they expected that trend to continue. And the same dynamic was at work in the laser printer market. WWW.GREYVM.COM © PROPERTY OF GREY VALUE MANAGEMENT, LLC 7 Lexmark was far from “growing broke,” but its entire business had fallen into a vise. Both the hardware and consumables it sold were experiencing margin compression, and the competition was only getting worse – especially at the low- and middle-tiers of the market, where the hardware increasingly came to be viewed not as a source of profit but a cost of maintaining ink and toner demand. Seen through the prism of this phenomenon, there was no questioning why Lexmark was on the front foot with SCC and the aftermarket in general. The most obvious strategic response to the market trend was to cut costs as aggressively as possible on the low end and, if possible, try to seize some of the high ground. But the cost of competing in the premium segment was escalating very quickly; by 2004 H-P was spending about $1 billion annually on printing R&D. The Vivera ink that it introduced at that time cost approximately $8,000 per gallon, making it one of the most expensive liquids on Earth. The H-P plan was ostensibly to assert superior quality across the product spectrum, but ultimately compete on price toward the low end and premium quality on the high end. If the former sounds like a commodity business, H-P’s Vyomesh Joshi, head of its printing and imaging unit, conceded as much when he said that H-P could sustain its ink margins over the long term “if we can continue to drive our cost of operations lower.” Isn’t that the definition of a commodity business? WWW.GREYVM.COM © PROPERTY OF GREY VALUE MANAGEMENT, LLC 8 2003 - 2008 60% Decline LXK Warns of Weak Demand GVM Begins Shorting Barron’s article re. SCC Insiders sell 23% of holdings LXK Net Falls 47%, Restructuring Announced LXK Jobs Cut, $1 BN Buyback Confirming the Variant Perception = Analyst Upgrade = Analyst Downgrade To the best of my knowledge, hedge fund legend Michael Steinhardt deserves credit for coining the term “variant perception,” which essentially refers to having a carefully contemplated view that significantly departs from the market consensus. Market perception is key with any investment because significant price adjustment, and thus profit, only occurs when the prevailing viewpoint is disrupted. In this sense, investing – and especially shorting – entails fully comprehending both perceptions. The consensus view is a culmination of many different information sources: Wall Street analyst recommendations, the company’s own guidance, media coverage, the stock price, etc. The price is important not necessarily because, as many Efficient Market theorists hold, it reflects all information available at that moment, but because the price response to developments reflects the conviction level of the consensus. On July 19th 2004 the Financial Times ran an article entitled "Lexmark's shares fall on worry over pricing." As the article indicated: Lexmark International, the US computer printer manufacturer, reported a sharp rise in quarterly earnings yesterday, reflecting strong sales of inkjet and laser printers and supplies that make up the bulk of revenues. But a cautious earnings forecast for the current quarter based on concerns about pricing pressures disappointed investors, sending Lexmark's shares tumbling by more than 6 per cent in early trading in New York. Sales increased by 11 per cent to $1.25bn, the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth at Lexmark, which ranks second after Hewlett-Packard in the US printer market and fourth in the world after HP, Epson and Canon. Lexmark's growth was driven by a 14 per cent increase in its core laser and inkjet supplies business and an 11 per cent increase in revenues from sales of laser and inkjet printers. Paul Curlander, chief executive, said the results reflected solid unit growth in both consumer and business market segments. However, he noted that significant pricing pressures and a shift towards lower-priced products in the business laser printer market meant revenue growth in this segment lagged unit growth. Inkjet printer makers are cutting prices ahead of the introduction of new machines from HP, the market leader, later this quarter. As a result, Lexmark said it now expected profit in the current third quarter to be between 90 cents and $1 a share on sales that are expected to rise in the "high-single to low-double digits" from the yearearlier quarter. WWW.GREYVM.COM © PROPERTY OF GREY VALUE MANAGEMENT, LLC 9 rd Two weeks later, on August 3 , the Wall Street Journal ran an article entitled "Fill It Up, With Color - Ink-Jet Cartridge Refillers Spread to Malls, Main Streets; Going After H-P's Lifeblood." It included an interview with the owner of Cartridge World, who pressed the point that his company charged customers $15 for a refilled cartridge vs. the $30 cost of a new one. The article focused on the efforts of several businesses to penetrate the market to the point that they would be a ubiquitous presence. As the article states (subject to my edits; text is omitted but not altered): The fast growth of franchisers such as Cartridge World marks a new twist in the multibillion-dollar ink and toner business. While refilling cartridges isn't a new concept, consumers haven't had easy access to it. But since setting up shop in the U.S. in January 2003, Australia-based Cartridge World Inc. has opened about 50 stores and currently is selling new franchises at the rate of five a week. Meanwhile, Canada's Island Ink-Jet Systems Inc., of Courtenay, British Columbia, is opening four new franchises a month, mainly shopping-mall kiosks, in states including Nebraska, Ohio and Oregon. And Caboodle Cartridge Retail Refill At Inc., of Sunnyvale, Calif., with four franchise locations now open, plans to Caboodle have 60 stores around the country by year end. Canon i80 Ink-jet Printer The idea behind the franchises is simple: Customers bring in their empty ink and toner cartridges from H-P, Canon or other branded printer or copier makers. The store refills the cartridge while the customer waits, at prices 30% to 50% below the cost of a new branded cartridge. "We want to be the McDonald's of ink and toner," says Burt Yarkin, chief executive of Cartridge World North America, based in Emeryville, Calif. "We're going right into people's neighborhoods and becoming part of their daily lives." Black $11.95 $4.99 Color 21.95 7.99 HP 1100D Color Ink-jet Printer Black, Cyan, Magenta or Yellow 33.99 18.99 Lexmark Z816 Ink-jet Printer Black 22.89 9.99 Color 25.19 9.99 It's a good idea that may be bad news for big printer and copier makers, who count on sales of ink and toner cartridges for a dependable revenue stream. As recently as two years ago, 100% of H-P's profits were derived from recurring cartridge sales, although other sectors of its business have since become profitable. Cartridge-refillers, driven in large part by the aggressive franchisers, are ramping up sales at a rate of 10% a year, compared with growth for big tech companies along the lines of 6% a year, according to Lyra Research Inc., a Newtonville, Mass., research firm. Daniel Wencel, president of Caboodle Cartridge, says H-P and other manufacturers are "gouging" consumers who buy new branded cartridges to replace their spent ones. "When we refill, it costs us just 60 cents to 70 cents a cartridge, so we can sell the refills for half off regular cartridge prices," he says. As the chart below illustrates, LXK shares immediately recovered a significant portion of the decline triggered by management’s warning and, after trending further down, again rallied less than a month later when Morgan Stanley raised the stock to outperform on August 13. June – Aug 2004 Earnings Released 8/13: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to “Outperform” WWW.GREYVM.COM © PROPERTY OF GREY VALUE MANAGEMENT, LLC 10 There were of course other datapoints to consider, but the fact that LXK shares immediately recovered after selling off despite an explicit warning directly from the Company itself confirmed that there was a critical disconnect between the investment community and the challenges facing Lexmark. Shareholders were either in oblivion or in denial, but in either case there would be a radical repricing when the prevailing perception was forced to reconcile with reality. WWW.GREYVM.COM © PROPERTY OF GREY VALUE MANAGEMENT, LLC 11 The Litigation Why exactly was Lexmark making the effort to sue SCC? To the extent that the litigation could dramatically impact the competitive landscape, Lexmark’s future was inseparable from the legal action. It took some time to wade through the legal arguments and filings, but it proved worth the effort. SCC, which generated approx. $300 mil. in annual revenue at the time, supplied computer chips that enabled replacement cartridges made by 3rd party remanufacturers to work in Lexmark printers designed to accept only LXK’s cartridges. It was these chips that were facilitating the commoditization of Lexmark's business; they were the only rd factor standing between 3 party competitors and LXK's fat margins. If it was to defend its franchise, Lexmark had to quarantine the chip technology enabling its generic competition, and the only avenue for doing so was litigation. In a lawsuit filed in December 2002 Lexmark contended that by duplicating a code programmed into its cartridges SCC violated the Digital Millenium Copyright Act of 1998 (DMCA). In February 2003 the US District Court (Judge Karl Forester presiding) found that SCC violated the DMCA by copying Lexmark’s computer chips wholesale. SCC responded by: Appealing the decision Asking for a clarification of the order Filing an antitrust suit against Lexmark and Dallas Semi contending that the 2 were engaging in anticompetitive acts and attempting to monopolize the market Petitioning the US Copyright Office (USCO) for guidance on whether the DMCA applied, and also requesting that in the event that the USCO determined that the DMCA did indeed apply that computer programs that enabled one part of a machine to function with another be exempted SCC went before the 5-person panel of the USCO on May 9 The USCO was due to issue its decision by October 28 th th Many of LXK's legal arguments were very specific. Lexmark wasn’t disputing use of the chips themselves, but rather was alleging infringement of the code that SCC had reverse engineered from LXK's own chips. That code, which was a basic computer algorithm, performed what in software terms is called a "digital handshake." In essence, Lexmark designed its printers and cartridges such that when a cartridge was popped into a printer, tiny chips within each component would digitally communicate, confirming that each was in fact a Lexmark product. Interoperability between the devices was achieved via the mutual recognition of a code generated by LXK's embedded, proprietary algorithm. No handshake, and the printer wouldn't print. SCC's counterarguments were equally to the point. They claimed that the code LXK asserted was infringed acted as a “lock-out code,” which under established case law could not be protected by copyright and thus could be freely reverse-engineered and copied under both copyright law and the DMCA. SCC asserted that it was “lawful reverse engineering for purposes of attaining interoperability.” In terms of the broader ramifications, if Lexmark succeeded in establishing that a simple algorithmic code - and it was quite simple - was protected under established copyright law, the consequences were potentially breathtaking. rd Consider the manufacturer's perspective. If any OEM could pre-empt 3 party competition simply by installing extremely inexpensive chips into every product, what would they do? They would install those cheap little digital handshaking chips in everything they possibly could. Imagine a car where every major part contained a chip that ensured that products even as mundane as oil filters could be purchased only from the manufacturer. If it’s only the "copyrightability" of the software in the chip that is required, and anyone can write a software program that is sufficiently unique to trigger that protection, what prevents every producer of every machine from installing a chip with “protected software” into every unit they produce? Effectively, nothing. As is typically the case, there were issues of fact to resolve. SCC asserted that what LXK was calling a sophisticated program didn't even qualify as a program because it was comprised of only a handful of bytes. By way of analogy, SCC's position was that LXK was trying to call a few sentences a novel. What exactly was it? The answer to that question was critical because much of SCC’s argument hinged on the code being interpreted not as software but as a simple lock-out code not entitled to copyright protection. SCC did distinguish that there are copyrightable functions WWW.GREYVM.COM © PROPERTY OF GREY VALUE MANAGEMENT, LLC 12 and non-copyrightable functions, and argued that it only wanted to duplicate the non-copyrightable lock-out code, but was forced to copy it all because LXK left it no alternative (p.19, Motion Opposing PI). In trying to handicap the outcome, it is worth noting that the EU had already passed a law prohibiting embedded chips in printer cartridges (at least those of the nature discussed herein). But shorting the stock because the US would "inevitably" follow the EU's reasoning was ill-advised; the US and EU disregard one another’s court rulings and the reasoning behind them not infrequently. One spectacular example that caused the arbitrageurs to literally lose billions was the EU antitrust authority's rejection of the GE-Honeywell merger, which at the time had already been approved by the US Department of Justice. Ultimately, determination of the outcome had to rely on the facts and theories at hand. The Legal Timeline / Outcome The synopsis of events is as follows: December 2002: Lexmark files suit against SCC February: US District Court (Judge Karl Forester) finds SCC violated the DMCA by copying Lexmark’s computer chips wholesale. SCC: Appealed the decision Asked for a clarification of the order Filed an antitrust suit against Lexmark and Dallas Semi contending that the 2 are engaging in anticompetitive acts and attempting to monopolize the market Petitioned the Copyright Office for guidance on whether the DMCA applies; in the event that it does, SCC requested that the CO exempt computer programs that enable one part of a machine to function with another The USCO issues its decision by Oct. 28 May 9: SCC went before 5-person panel of US Copyright Office Oct 28: USCO issues its decision The best resource for information on the legal case, stem to stern, including links to the legal briefs as well as the Copyright Office documents, is http://www.scc-inc.com/special/oemwarfare/lexmark_vs_scc.htm. Much of what follows can be traced to documents accessible therein. Regarding the outcome, SCC summarized it nicely on their website (this information was released November 7, 2003): The Copyright Office, experts in interpreting the copyright law, recently ruled on Static Control Components’ petition for an exemption to the Digital Millennium Copyright Act of 1998 (DMCA). The Copyright Office interpreted critical portions of the DMCA consistently with the positions taken in the courts by Static Control Components, and contrary to arguments by Lexmark. We will strongly encourage the courts to adopt the interpretation given the DMCA by the Copyright Office. If Lexmark is willing to accede to the Copyright Office's interpretation, then we believe that much of the controversy with Lexmark over replacement toner cartridge chips already will have been resolved in our favor. Lexmark is absolutely right that our request for an exemption, which Lexmark fought against, was not granted; HOWEVER, the basis for the denial was fundamentally good news for Static Control Components -- the government found that Static Control Components did not need an Aug ’03 – Aug ‘04 exemption because the statute itself (when properly interpreted) could provide appropriately-designed Static Control Components’ chips with an even broader exemption for fair use and reverseengineering. WWW.GREYVM.COM © PROPERTY OF GREY VALUE MANAGEMENT, LLC 13 The exemption that SCC argued for was not granted. However, in this type of legal battle, each side as a matter of course will assert every legal theory in their favor. Thus, the fact that they were not granted an exemption was less meaningful than the Copyright Office confirming that they didn't need an exemption to begin with. There remained the issue of the courts adopting the ruling of the Copyright Office, but this is typically a matter of course. The Copyright Office doesn't have the same enforcement powers as a court of law; its strength lies in its expertise in intellectual property matters, which the judiciary tends to embrace. How did the market react to these legal developments? In the space of 5 months the stock went from trading in the mid-$70s to north of $95 (above right), a move of approximately 30%, despite the company-specific news as well as the relatively flat performance of the S&P (right). As that trajectory indicates, the market had a long way to go before it assimilated the fracture in LXK's business model. But the higher it went, the more violent the eventual correction would be. To the careful, adroit short, this appreciation in contradiction of the facts and their obvious implications delivered the margin of safety that made the trade work. Nov ‘03 – Aug ‘04 LXK continues rising despite legal decision and a basically flat market 2004 LXK S&P 500 WWW.GREYVM.COM © PROPERTY OF GREY VALUE MANAGEMENT, LLC 14 An Aside on Options In yet another apparent betrayal of the Value Investing Brotherhood, it is incumbent upon me to point out that the nature of the Lexmark mispricing created an attractive opportunity in the options as well as the equity. Specifically, the persistent optimism and extended period of low price volatility had the effect of driving the price of the long-dated outof-the-money puts to ridiculously cheap levels. (By the way, anyone insisting that value investing is limited to simply owning stocks and bonds is politely reminded that between July 1997 and January 1998 Warren Buffett bought 129 million ounces of silver. He has also actively participated in arbitrage – value is an assessment, not a definition.) It can be argued that the options were mispriced for the same simple reason that the equity was: Misperception. Given the mechanics of the Black-Scholes option pricing model, the misguided but unrelenting optimism that held the share price aloft in a relatively narrow range (between $80 and $90 for the most of the preceding 6 months) naturally reduced the volatility component of the options prices, making the far-calendar out-of-the-money put options irresistibly cheap. Put another way, the options were attractive only because their principal drawback – the time value premium – was unusually low. It is important to point out that while the option component of the position delivered a handsome return, both in gross and annualized terms, it was conservatively sized and intended only as a return enhancer. WWW.GREYVM.COM © PROPERTY OF GREY VALUE MANAGEMENT, LLC 15 Orchestrating the Exit Although as a matter of policy I never provide specifics regarding the size of my positions or trade execution, this discussion would not be complete without touching on the mechanics of my exit. Every trade has a price at which, provided the basic facts do not change, unwinding or exiting the position makes sense. The exit may of course be influenced by unpredictable factors – a sudden surge in trading volume based upon unanticipated developments (such as an analyst upgrade/downgrade, etc.) or “gapping” of the price, where overnight developments cause the price to open at a level significantly different than the prior day’s close. Short positions arguably require a market vigilance that long-term holds do not. Theoretically every stock that is overvalued can, provided the company isn’t going bankrupt, decline to a price at which it is undervalued. That is, the price at which the buyer is fully compensated for every imaginable risk. While Lexmark was anything but destined to go out of business, the short was predicated upon the fundamentals of its business deteriorating in a manner that was largely beyond its control. What multiple should be assigned to its declining earnings, and what would those earnings look like? While the answer was more art than science, I found it difficult to imagine that the Company would finish 2005 with earnings above $3, and rising much above that level would be extremely difficult going forward. Even once management gave up the ghost and began to downsize, bolstering earnings per share by cutting overhead or reducing EPS denominator through buybacks would at best only support a lower floor on the share price, not prevent it from falling to that much lower valuation plateau. There were sporadic rumors of a takeover or buyout, but I couldn’t fathom why any of the obvious strategic buyers would want to go near it, and it didn’t appear that incumbent management was prepared to step down from the helm. Based on the fundamentals and the geologic pressure the competition was exerting on its margins, I concluded that it would be generous to value LXK at a mid-teens market multiple. At 15X, $3 in earnings dictated a $30 share price. However, the cash on hand, lack of debt, and cash flow generation also meant that Lexmark could decrease the shares outstanding by a substantial amount, and taking those elements into account it seemed advisable to unwind the position closer to the $40 level. WWW.GREYVM.COM © PROPERTY OF GREY VALUE MANAGEMENT, LLC 16 Closing Comments Lexmark wasn’t an investment; it was a rational speculation. It was also an illustration of how much easier it is to profit when we confine ourselves to only those opportunities at the extremes, where risk and reward are most profoundly slanted in our favor. The research effort described herein may seem daunting or even excessive, but the results speak for themselves. As for the future, at this point in time it's clear that the generic/off-market competitors must continue to improve the quality of their offerings if they are to pose a long-term credible threat to OEMs such as LXK. The aftermarket is evolving aggressively, but perhaps Lexmark will prevail. The mispricing I profited from was predicated on a misperception regarding the challenges facing the company, not its outright failure. It will be interesting to see how effectively they defend their margins in the years to come. Steven R. Grey (2009) WWW.GREYVM.COM © PROPERTY OF GREY VALUE MANAGEMENT, LLC 17 DISCLAIMER These materials shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any interests in Grey Value Management or any of its affiliates. Such an offer to sell or solicitation to buy interests may only be made pursuant to a definitive agreement between Grey Value Management and an investor. The information set forth in this synopsis has been obtained from publicly-available sources. It is provided for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation to buy or sell the securities mentioned or to invest in any investment product. The information has not been independently verified by Grey Value Management or any of its affiliates. Neither Grey Value Management nor any of its affiliates makes any representations or warranties regarding, nor do they assume any responsibility for the accuracy, reliability, completeness or applicability of, any information, calculations, estimates or projections contained or reflected herein. The information in this synopsis is provided as of the date hereof and is subject to change at any time thereafter. Grey Value Management may have a position in any of the securities discussed in this presentation. Grey Value Management may reevaluate its holdings thereof and purchase, sell or cover certain positions. WWW.GREYVM.COM © PROPERTY OF GREY VALUE MANAGEMENT, LLC 18 A PPENDICES WWW.GREYVM.COM © PROPERTY OF GREY VALUE MANAGEMENT, LLC 19 Lexmark (LXK) Annual Income Statement YE 12/31 1994 1,852.3 1,298.8 553.5 1995 2,157.8 1,487.9 669.9 1996 2,377.6 1,630.2 747.4 Research & Development SG&A Option compensation related to IPO Amortization of Intangibles Restructuring and related (reversal) charges Operating expenses 101.0 292.9 0.0 44.7 116.1 359.1 60.6 25.6 123.9 388.0 438.6 561.4 Operating income 114.9 Revenue Cost of Revenue Gross Profit 1997 2,493.5 1623.5 870.0 1998 3,020.6 1934.4 1,086.2 1999 3,452.3 2222.8 1,229.5 2000 3,807.0 2550.9 1,256.1 2001 4,142.8 2865.3 1,277.5 2002 4,356.4 2985.8 1,370.6 2003 4,754.7 3209.6 1,545.1 2004 5,313.8 3522.4 1,791.4 2005 5,221.5 3585.9 1,635.6 2006 5,108.1 3462.1 1,646.0 128.9 466.5 158.5 544.9 183.6 569.3 216.5 582.6 246.2 631.9 247.9 617.8 265.7 685.5 312.7 746.6 336.4 765.5 517.0 595.4 703.4 752.9 41.3 840.4 58.4 936.5 (5.9) 859.8 951.2 1,059.3 1,101.9 108.5 230.4 274.6 382.8 476.6 415.7 341.0 510.8 593.9 732.1 533.7 442.5 50.6 35.1 20.9 10.8 11.0 10.7 12.8 14.8 9.0 (0.4) (14.5) (26.5) (22.1) 13.6 10.1 7.9 9.1 6.4 7.0 6.5 8.4 6.2 0.8 0.1 6.5 5.3 50.7 63.3 201.6 254.7 365.4 458.9 396.4 317.8 495.6 593.5 746.5 553.7 459.3 6.1 15.2 73.8 91.7 122.4 140.4 111.0 44.2 128.9 154.3 177.8 197.4 120.9 44.6 48.1 127.8 163.0 243.0 318.5 285.4 273.6 366.7 439.2 568.7 356.3 338.4 0.0 (15.7) Net Earnings 44.6 32.4 127.8 149.0 243.0 318.5 285.4 273.6 366.7 439.2 568.7 356.3 338.4 Preferred dividends Preferred stock redemption premium 11.8 61.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (28.5) 32.4 127.8 149.0 243.0 318.5 285.4 273.6 366.7 439.2 568.7 356.3 338.4 74,932,103 76,221,843 71.3 75.2 66.6 71.4 129.4 137.5 128.4 134.3 129.6 133.8 128.5 131.6 128.1 131.4 129.7 132.9 121.0 122.3 102.8 103.5 Interest Expense, net Amortization of deferred financing costs and other Earnings before income taxes, extraordinary items Provision for income taxes Earnings before extraordinary items Extraordinary item Net earnings (loss) attributable to common stock Shares outstanding (mil.) 61,430,896 5.1 0.0 Dilution Dilution as a % of basic 3.9 4.8 5.4% $ EPS, reported Restated $ (0.46) $ (0.46) $ 0.43 0.43 $ $ 1.68 1.68 71.2 1,203.5 (14.0) Shares used in per share calculation: Basic Diluted EPS, net EPS, Basic EPS, Diluted 370.5 761.8 $ $ $ 8.2 7.2% 6.0 6.3% 4.2 4.6% 3.1 3.2% 3.3 2.4% 3.2 2.6% 1.3 2.5% 0.7 1.1% 0.7% 1.98 1.98 0.99 $ $ 3.65 3.40 $ $ 2.46 2.32 $ $ 2.22 2.12 $ $ $ $ 3.40 1.70 $ 2.32 $ 2.13 $ 2.11 2.04 - $ $ 2.85 2.79 $ $ 3.43 3.34 $ $ 4.38 4.28 $ $ 2.94 2.91 $ $ 3.29 3.27 $ 2.79 $ 3.34 $ 4.28 $ 2.91 $ 3.27 1994, 1995, & 1996 annual results from 1996 10-K (earliest available) WWW.GREYVM.COM © PROPERTY OF GREY VALUE MANAGEMENT, LLC 1 Lexmark (LXK) Revenue vs. Income Revenue vs. Income 6,000 5,000 Mil. 4,000 Revenue Gross Profit 3,000 Net Earnings 2,000 1,000 0 1994 WWW.GREYVM.COM 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Year 2001 2002 2003 © PROPERTY OF GREY VALUE MANAGEMENT, LLC 2004 2005 2006 2 Lexmark (LXK) Annual Balance Sheet YE 12/31 ASSETS Cash and cash equivalents Marketable securities Trade receivables Trade receivable allowance Trade receivables, net Inventory Prepaid expenses and other assets 646.3 46.0 600.3 410.3 290.5 2003 744.6 451.5 663.5 48.1 615.4 437.0 195.3 2004 626.2 940.5 784.9 40.5 744.4 464.9 224.9 2005 168.3 720.5 688.3 37.4 650.9 409.2 220.7 2006 144.6 406.3 622.3 38.0 584.3 457.8 237.0 1,493.1 1,798.8 2,443.8 3,000.9 2,169.6 1,830.0 730.6 98.9 800.4 156.4 747.6 261.7 715.9 290.7 792.2 331.2 832.2 328.3 846.8 172.2 1,702.6 2,073.2 2,449.9 2,808.1 3,450.4 4,124.3 3,330.1 2,849.0 11.7 16.2 0.0 11.0 12.3 1.1 1.5 302.0 227.5 267.1 326.9 300.9 418.4 426.1 552.9 384.7 535.4 378.5 708.2 465.7 716.5 670.6 795.6 572.8 660.9 600.3 723.7 421.3 547.5 605.7 735.5 979.0 931.1 1,099.0 1,183.3 1,467.7 1,233.7 1,324.0 175.0 89.7 163.2 96.7 57.0 103.0 148.7 150.9 148.7 159.3 148.9 168.3 149.1 293.8 149.2 478.3 149.3 474.8 149.5 424.2 149.6 518.1 149.8 340.0 752.7 681.2 707.5 905.3 1,043.5 1,296.2 1,374.0 1,726.5 1,807.4 2,041.4 1,901.4 1,813.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 160,000,000 160,000,000 160,000,000 160,000,000 450,000,000 900,000,000 900,000,000 900,000,000 900,000,000 900,000,000 900,000,000 900,000,000 64,303,619 70,213,603 67,539,935 65,491,131 128,120,358 127,086,660 130.4 126.2 128.6 127.6 111.9 97.0 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.2 1.1 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 5,888,623 2,446,523 410,357 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capital in excess of par 494.6 519.3 537.2 564.8 630.4 715.7 806.2 863.5 956.4 1,076.0 832.5 827.3 Retained earnings (deficit) (108.0) 19.8 168.8 411.8 730.3 1,015.7 1,289.1 1,655.8 2,095.0 2,663.7 988.8 627.5 0.5 (23.8) (29.0) (30.8) (74.9) (141.2) (229.7) (196.5) (165.3) (163.3) (130.9) (182.2) (370.3) (672.3) (881.1) (879.8) 28.5 (1,209.6) 34.5 (1,213.5) 34.5 (1,493.2) 37.6 (230.5) 10.5 (289.8) 10.9 Total current assets Property, plant and equipment, net Other assets Total assets Short-term debt Current portion of long-term debt Accounts payable Accrued liabilities Total current liabilities Long-term debt Other liabilities Total liabilities Preferred stock, $0.01 par value, 1,600,000 authorized none issued or outstanding Common stock par $0.01 value Class A authorized Class A outstanding Class A Outstanding: Value Class B authorized Class B outstanding Class B Outstanding: Value Accumulated translation adjustment / Accumulated other comprehensive loss (after 1999) 1995 150.5 1996 119.3 1997 43.0 1998 149.0 1999 93.9 2000 68.5 2001 90.7 2002 497.7 240.6 27.0 213.6 296.3 55.3 322.7 18.0 304.7 271.0 70.1 337.9 19.0 318.9 353.8 60.4 493.6 24.2 469.4 333.0 68.6 531.4 24.1 507.3 387.7 99.8 616.2 22.2 594.0 412.3 168.9 736.1 33.3 702.8 455.1 244.5 715.7 765.1 776.1 1,020.0 1,088.7 1,243.7 361.2 66.0 434.1 22.3 409.6 22.5 430.5 32.9 561.0 52.9 1,142.9 1,221.5 1,208.2 1,483.4 0.0 20.0 209.6 258.4 2.1 18.0 197.2 222.0 488.0 2.9 Treasury stock Treasury stock shares (mil.) Total stockholders' equity Total liabilities and stockholders' equity 390.2 540.3 500.7 578.1 659.1 777.0 1,075.9 1,081.6 1,643.0 2,082.9 1,428.7 1,035.2 1,142.9 1,221.5 1,208.2 1,483.4 1,702.6 2,073.2 2,449.9 2,808.1 3,450.4 4,124.3 3,330.1 2,849.0 1995 numbers from 1996 10-K WWW.GREYVM.COM © PROPERTY OF GREY VALUE MANAGEMENT, LLC 3 Lexmark (LXK) Annual Cash Flow Statement YE 12/31 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Cash flows from operating activities: Net Earnings Adjustments to reconcile net earnings to net cash provided by (used for) operating activities: Depreciation & amortization Option compensation related to IPO Extraordinary loss Deferred taxes Stock-based compensation expense Restructuring and related (reversal) charges Tax shortfall from employee stock plans Tax benefits from employee stock plans Other non-cash charges to operations 44.6 32.4 127.8 149.0 243.0 318.5 285.4 273.6 366.7 439.2 568.7 356.3 338.4 127.3 99.1 60.6 15.7 (30.8) 69.2 77.5 75.6 80.1 91.2 125.6 138.2 148.9 134.9 158.5 200.9 12.3 22.4 40.7 3.0 (8.9) (3.2) (56.4) 12.3 63.5 (22.3) (21.9) 43.2 41.3 87.7 (5.9) 0.0 (6.7) (0.7) 54.2 226.1 45.5 222.5 22.6 231.9 24.6 314.2 26.5 348.1 67.9 457.6 6.0 420.7 28.8 459.3 40.8 552.1 23.7 675.3 11.1 708.0 15.8 38.8 547.1 (39.7) 70.0 28.5 17.0 29.2 (52.5) 30.0 (17.3) 71.3 76.5 (70.1) (21.0) 25.3 (12.4) (36.4) (47.5) 33.3 (82.8) 104.8 5.5 (138.2) (12.3) 20.8 (34.9) 99.4 (77.9) 40.0 (54.7) 33.8 91.5 (48.6) 27.5 62.0 (89.9) (27.9) 204.9 79.1 43.6 (103.3) 55.7 (97.8) (134.7) (52.6) (15.1) 0.0 (26.7) 87.2 8.3 37.2 (18.6) 66.6 0.7 187.5 (85.0) 44.8 (6.2) 172.8 31.3 (81.7) 93.5 (23.0) (23.8) (85.0) (42.8) (41.4) (17.5) 54.7 (107.8) (129.0) 30.8 (116.7) 30.0 (24.6) 125.2 134.5 61.2 (154.0) 112.6 0.2 361.9 307.5 118.0 274.9 289.0 400.4 476.3 195.7 815.6 747.6 775.4 576.4 670.9 (58.1) 2.2 (106.8) 6.6 (145.0) 3.6 (69.5) 1.1 (101.7) 2.0 (220.4) 0.2 (296.8) (1.3) (214.4) (0.2) (111.7) (93.8) (198.3) (201.3) (200.2) (2.1) (1,113.8) 662.3 1.4 (2,927.8) 2,437.9 0.1 (1,604.3) 1,824.7 (14.2) (1,406.2) 1,721.0 (1.9) (113.8) (543.9) (688.1) 3.3 563.2 Change in assets & liabilities: Trade receivables Trade receivables program Inventories Accounts payable Accrued liabilities Tax benefits from employee stock options Other assets & liabilities Net cash provided by (used for) operating activities Cash flows from investing activities: Purchases of PP&E Proceeds from sale of PP&E Purchases of marketable securities Proceeds from marketable securities Other Net cash used for investing activities Cash flows from financing activities: Increase (decrease) in short-term debt Proceeds from issuance of long-term debt Principal payments on long-term debt Charges related to extinguishment of debt Issuance of treasury stock Purchase of treasury stock Common stock transactions, net Preferred dividends paid Exercise of stock options and warrants Proceeds from employee stock plans Tax windfall from employee tax plans Other Net cash provided by (used for) financing activities Effect of exchange rate changes on cash Net increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents Cash and cash equivalents - beginning of period Cash and cash equivalents - end of period WWW.GREYVM.COM 6.1 (55.9) (100.2) (141.4) (68.4) (99.7) 0.0 0.0 (360.7) 0.0 147.2 (245.0) 2.1 5.7 (38.0) 35.8 0.2 (125.5) (22.4) (6.3) 297.2 (207.0) (182.2) (188.5) (302.0) 15.2 20.7 60.2 (0.1) (9.5) (2.2) (220.2) 8.2 (298.1) (214.6) (16.2) 11.0 0.3 (1.5) 0.9 (330.7) 1.3 (5.2) 1.5 (281.2) 0.5 (1,069.9) 0.5 (871.0) 30.1 22.3 52.2 71.5 37.0 (1.5) (3.0) 52.8 12.5 (3.5) (209.4) (1,036.9) (808.7) 23.0 0.0 (7.2) (278.9) 1.2 (0.6) (3.9) (63.0) 105.0 108.5 42.0 (31.2) 150.5 42.0 150.5 119.3 1.3 (100.0) (12.3) 112.7 1.3 (208.8) 23.8 (370.3) 5.7 4.9 (83.9) (233.6) (201.2) 0.6 (1.7) (2.4) (1.3) (76.3) 119.3 106.0 43.0 (55.1) 149.0 (25.4) 93.9 43.0 149.0 93.9 68.5 © PROPERTY OF GREY VALUE MANAGEMENT, LLC 42.4 (301.8) 36.0 7.0 7.2 3.7 (2.3) 1.4 22.2 68.5 407.0 90.7 246.9 497.7 (118.4) 744.6 (457.9) 626.2 (23.7) 168.3 90.7 497.7 744.6 626.2 168.3 144.6 4