- DataSsential

FOODBYTES
AUGUST 2016 | ISSUE 32 | YOUR FREE DATASSENTIAL TREND REPORT
FB
“What are you all waiting for?”
“It’s the line for rainbow bagels!” a little girl yells.
She takes out her phone and opens Instagram.
THE WASHINGTON POST
“The most controversial bagel in Brooklyn”
DATASSENTIAL’S FOODYTES: TREND OR FAD?
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THE MENU ADOPTION CYCLE
Datassential’s Menu Adoption Cycle (MAC) is a framework for understanding, predicting, and leveraging food trends. A
trend’s life cycle is defined by where that trend shows up, starting at fine dining restaurants and then eventually finding its
way to mainstream supermarket shelves and beyond.
RETAIL
Ethnic Markets
I
FOODSERVICE
Ethnic Independents
Fine Dining
MAC STAGE
INCEPTION
Trends start here.
Inception-stage
trends exemplify
originality in flavor,
preparation, and
presentation.
A
Ethnic Aisle
Farmers’
Markets
Gastropubs
Chef Casuals
Food Trucks
Specialty Grocers
Gourmet Food Stores
Upper Casual
Casual Independents
MAC STAGE
ADOPTION
Adoption-stage trends
grow their base via
lower price points and
simpler prep methods.
Still differentiated,
these trends often
feature premium
and/or generally
authentic ingredients.
Fast Casual
Traditional Grocery
Lodging
Mass Merchandisers
P
Casual Chains
Colleges
MAC STAGE
PROLIFERATION
Proliferation-stage
trends are adjusted
for mainstream
appeal. Often
combined with
popular applications
(on a burger, pasta,
etc.), these trends
have become familiar
to many.
Club Stores
Quick Service Restaurants
Grocery Deli
Convenience Stores
Drug Stores
Corporate Cafeterias
Family Restaurants
Dollar Stores
Healthcare
K-12 Schools
DATASSENTIAL’S FOODYTES: TREND OR FAD?
U
MAC STAGE
UBIQUITY
Ubiquity-stage trends
have reached
maturity, and can be
found across all
sectors of the food
industry.
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On the heels of the release and popularity of augmented
reality game Pokemon Go, many operators reacted swiftly,
coming up with LTOs or catchy promotions to match the
buzz, like Australia’s Down N’ Out, which came out with
three “Pokeburg” burgers. The jury’s still out on whether the
Pokemon Go craze will fade away or turn into a true trend,
but operators have been rushing to capitalize on marketing
opportunities by associating themselves with the game.
It’s been more of a slow and steady march for quinoa –
there’s no quinoa game associated with the ancient grain,
but nonetheless, the small but mighty ingredient has
increased triple digits on menus just over the past four
years, making it a bonafide trend sweeping across
segments. Recently, Arizona-based chain Pei Wei added
quinoa as a starch option.
WHAT’S THE NEXT SRIRACHA?
WHAT’S THE NEXT BIG FOOD TREND?
HOW DO I KNOW WHETHER THIS IS A TRUE TREND OR JUST A FAD?
When you deal exclusively with food and food trends, it’s par for the course to hear questions like these. Everyone wants to know what’s
coming up next and, at Datassential, we’re always bringing you the latest industry trends, whether it’s an overarching theme, like
customizable, build-your-own concepts, or segment-specific trends (breakfast battles at QSRs, globally-inspired foods at fast casuals), and
boiling it down to insights you can use. With today’s widespread use of social media, some trends may seem like they come and go in a
flash – one day it’s all about ramen bun burgers, and the next everyone’s talking about Burger King’s hybrid Mac ‘N Cheetos. As an
operator or manufacturer, how can you tell what trends are in it for the long haul and worth investing in? And what about those flash-in-apan hot topics of the moment? Is there a way to capitalize on things like trending hashtags and eye-catching, Instagram-worthy foods?
Datassential’s Menu Adoption Cycle, or MAC (see the full cycle on the previous page) provides a framework for leveraging and predicting
food and flavor trends. Is it brand new (or relatively unknown) to consumers, landing in the Inception phase? Or is it something like mac
and cheese that’s widely known throughout restaurants and segments, in our end stage of Ubiquity? Not everything makes it all the way
through the Cycle – in fact, only about 30% to 40% of trends make it past the first stage. Yet, while these Inception-level items may have a
short life, they can create a lot of buzz, making them better-suited to LTOs or special promotions. They may also lead to larger insights
that have far-reaching effects. Avocado roses (or fanned out avocado slices, which briefly trended on Instagram) may not make it all the
way to Ubiquity, but they highlight the growth of avocados overall, which can now be found on over 40% of the country’s menus. Similarly,
we also look at some of the other buzzed-about items that have trended on Instagram and other social media outlets, because by
understanding the root trend of something like eye-catching rainbow bagels, you can look for new, short-term ways to leverage flavors
and ingredients and create constant interest. After the Cronut became the next big thing, operators throughout the industry created their
own variations on the underlying trend – hybrid desserts. Understanding the difference between a long-term trend and a short-term fad is
key to making certain that your products and dishes meet your sales and marketing goals – something identified as a fad means it’s time to
act now, like adding a related LTO or taking inspiration from a hot topic (using ‘Gotta Catch ‘Em All!’ in marketing); while something that’s
a long-standing, industry-wide trend should be matched with a long-term strategy (like looking into sourcing pulses to add to the menu).
In this issue of FoodBytes, we take a deeper look at food trends, using Datassential’s MAC along with highlighting the key characteristics
that either propel trends into later stages of the trend cycle or prevent them from progressing past certain stages, helping you better
identify whether something is a long-lasting trend or a short-term fad that you can capitalize on right this moment.
DATASSENTIAL’S FOODYTES: TREND OR FAD?
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01
Almond milk has
increased more then 40%
on menus over the past
four years, and has
recently joined the roster
of milk options at
Starbucks, but the growth
of this trend could be
hampered by sourcing
constraints. It takes
about a gallon of water to
grow one almond, and
with drought and space
issues in California, some
are concerned about the
demand for both almonds
and almond milk.
02
There aren’t many sourcing
problems when it comes to crunchy
critters like crickets and other
insects, which some companies are
heralding as a protein alternative,
used in everything from cricket
flour to power bars. The Inceptionlevel food, however, may not hop
further along the MAC, due to U.S.
consumers’ inherent aversion to
eating bugs. In our Fall 2015 issue
of TIPS, we found that a third of
consumers thought insects were
adventurous, but only about a tenth
would try them.
04
It can be hard to sustain a trend if
there’s a limited true need for it.
While this Fairy Bread Milkshake
(Daisy’s Milk Bar) can quench a
craving for something sweet, is there
a true, untapped need underlying the
product?
03
A quick burst of mediadriven hype (both
traditional and social
media) often indicates a
short lifespan for a trend or
fad. Fairy bread, essentially
white bread topped with
butter and sprinkles,
originates from Australia
but has taken over
Instagram recently and has
been called a 2016 hipster
trend “you’ll be so over in a
year” by Thrillist.
01
True trends are
typically
restaurant-driven,
propelled by
chains or
operators that are
rallying behind an
ingredient or
product. Plenty of
large chains have
embraced sriracha,
from Spicy
Sriracha Dressing
at Subway to
sriracha pumps
(instead of
ketchup) at
Chicago-based
Protein Bar.
03
Trends are successful when they
fulfill an essential need. Sriracha
fulfilled a need for a new, global hot
sauce flavor that could spice up the
menu. Consumers’ extreme need
for the spicy condiment even
spurred items like Sriracha2go, a
sriracha-filled keychain (the
company sold 20,000 the week
after Buzzfeed highlighted it).
04
A long-term trend tends to find
new life late in the MAC, even
when it’s already in Ubiquity. Bacon
was a long-time breakfast staple,
but it saw a resurgence a few years
ago, starring in everything from
bacon chocolate to weaved bacon
ice cream sandwiches (this one
from DudeFoods.com).
02
The more ways an
ingredient can be
leveraged, the
more versatile
and more likely it
is to move along
the trend cycle.
Sriracha products
can be found in
restaurants and in
retail, used in
everything from
sriracha mayo to
sriracha-glazed
donuts.
TREND EVOLUTION:
HOW BUZZED-ABOUT ITEMS
CAN TURN INTO A LARGER
INDUSTRY TREND
DESSERT
MASHUPS
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CRONUT
A donut made from croissant
dough that saw near-instant
success after it was revealed in
2013 by Dominique Ansel. The
New York baker trademarked the
name after seeing the
pandemonium the item caused. By
understanding the root of the
trend – hybrid desserts – operators
throughout the industry quickly
capitalized on the hype.
CHAIN
ITEMS
CROISSANT DONUT
Mr. Holmes Bakery’s
Cruffin (croissant-muffin)
CROISBUN
Au Bon Pain’s CroisBun
marries a croissant and a
sweet bun, offered in flavors
like the sweet cheese
(pictured).
42%
40%
PURCHASE
INTENT
UNIQUENESS
Dunkin’ Donuts capitalized on the
Cronut craze by introducing the
Croissant Donut LTO in November
2014 and it quickly became one of
the most successful LTOs in the
company’s history (USA Today). The
item is now on the permanent menu,
with LTO flavors released
throughout the year – recent
variations have included Blueberry
Cobbler and Lemon.
Find out what consumers think
about an LTO or new product by
testing it in SCORES!
Oreo
Churros
The signature Brookie
(brownie-cookie) from
Las Vegas’ Honey Salt.
Now-shuttered Waffles Café in Chicago
created the Wonut, a waffle-donut hybrid.
What new dessert mashups will tomorrow
bring? Stay ahead of the trend curve with
our recently-released MenuTrends
Keynote Report: Desserts for info on
consumers’ favorite flavors and formats.
Ansel offers a variety of other unique
desserts like frozen s’mores and these
milk-filled cookie shots.
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CURRENTLY
BUZZING
ON SOCIAL
MEDIA
In today’s social media-driven world, constant uploads of food photography is the
norm, fueling what’s sometimes more casually referred to as ‘food porn’ showcasing
drool-worthy, must-have foods. Social media buzz has a big impact on businesses –
just look at some of the operators whose creations have gone viral, leading to long
lines of fans. Here are some snippets of what’s trending online, along with insights on
how to capitalize on the buzz. Clockwise from top left: 1) Avocado roses, made by
thinly slicing an avocado and rolling it into a rose shape, are all over Instagram. This
shot comes from @avocadotoast, an account with more than 30,000 followers. 2)
While avocado roses may not be a trend on its own, operators can surely get
inspiration from avocado, which appears on over 40% of menus, on everything from
the social media-driven avocado toast (here shown four ways by @frommybowl) to
Mexican dishes. 3) New York’s ChikaLicious dessert bar offers the coneCHURRO, a
churro ice cream cone filled with ice cream and topped with a variety of goodies, a
new iteration on the hybrid dessert phenomenon. 4) Frosé is the frozen rosé cocktail
“about to blow up your Instagram feed,” (Bustle), shown here at Kindred Restaurant in
North Carolina. The cocktail shows how simple ingredients like ice, fruit, and
vermouth, can put an upscale, grown-up slushie spin on wine.
DATASSENTIAL’S FOODYTES: TREND OR FAD?
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New York’s Eggloo has 20,000-plus Instagram
followers, all going gaga for its photogenic egg
waffles, a traditional Hong Kong street food.
There are more than 20,000
Instagram posts for the
#rainbowbagel, a tie-dyed
concoction that drew extremely
long lines at Brooklyn’s The Bagel
Store. Though self-described “world
premier bagel artist” Scott Rossillo
has made the bagel for more than
two decades, a flood of social media
posts made it uber-popular this
spring, and now there’s even a VIP
waitlist to have the bagels shipped.
CURRENTLY
BUZZING
ON SOCIAL
MEDIA
The self-proclaimed original sushi
burrito by San Francisco’s Sushiritto.
DATASSENTIAL’S FOODYTES: TREND OR FAD?
New York’s Black Tap continues to make a
splash with hours-long waits for its over-thetop, $15.00, 1,600-calorie milkshakes that
amass tens of thousands of likes on Instagram.
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LAST MONTH’S
TRENDSPOTTING
DINE AROUND
In July we took you to
Newport Beach, the site of
the 2016 Flavor Experience
conference. We explored
everything that makes the
area a trendspotting
hotspot, from growing
California fast casuals to
“dock and dine” eateries.
INTERNATIONAL
CONCEPTS
It was all about the luck of
the Irish in July’s
International Concepts when
we visited Ireland. You’ll find
everything from burgers and
Italian food to traditional Irish
fare like baps and blood
pudding.
IN SEPTEMBER: Baltimore
IN SEPTEMBER: Malaysia
ON THE MENU
FOODBYTES
Last month Datassential took
a look at finger limes,
banoffee, power salads,
prosecco, hollandaise, and
cilantro.
IN SEPTEMBER: Tobacco
flavoring in desserts,
mangalitsa, café de olla,
thick-cut bacon, zucchini,
and PB&J.
Do consumers like wine?
How much do they know
about wine? In July’s
FoodBytes we shared
insights on how to educate
consumers and take
advantage of the wine
opportunity.
IN SEPTEMBER: A peek at
the 2016 Dessert Keynote.
CREATIVE CONCEPTS
We went tiny last month,
discovering some of the
country’s most unique micro
concepts, churning out big
flavors and award-winning
concepts in the smallest of
spaces.
IN SEPTEMBER: Catering
For information about an issue or to subscribe to a title, contact
Datassential Senior Publications Manager Mike Kostyo
at 312-219-6435 or mike.kostyo@datassential.com.
DATASSENTIAL’S FOODYTES: TREND OR FAD?
9
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