Report - Elgin Development Group

Transcription

RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS
CITY OF
ELGIN, ILLINOIS
November 2015
Elgin Development Group
1
www.ElginDevelopment.com
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The following conclusions and recommendations are found throughout this report. This section contains a
summary of our extensive findings about the retail development potential in the City of Elgin. The analysis is
useful to retailers interested in expanding. The Market Analysis addresses three key components: It identifies the
current commercial areas, it examines the potential for future commercial development; and it gives
recommendations and strategies that will allow Elgin’s retail sector to grow and add sales tax dollars.
General Findings
1. Elgin’s population has risen steadily to the September 1, 2015 estimate of 114,145. This estimate is
based upon the U.S. Census Bureau’s QuickFacts Beta annual estimated increases of 1.8%. The
population in 2010 was 108,188, while the 2000 population was at 94,487.
2. Sales Tax Data shows that the City of Elgin’s retail sales were at $2.46 billion in FY 2014-2015, up
$16.7 million from FY 2013-2014 sales of $2.29 billion. These figures are slightly above those at the
height of the retail market nearly a decade ago indicating a cautious recovery. State Sales Tax
Collections and Distributions were up in almost every retail category from a year ago.
3. Retail Sales Lost or “Leakage” and Market Potential indicates that approximately $200 million is
being spent by Elgin residents outside of Elgin. Leakages in the following categories represent potential
new retail businesses that the City of Elgin would target to attract to Elgin: Grocery Stores, Clothing
Stores, Sporting Goods Stores, General Merchandise Stores, and Furniture Stores.
4. The Retail Vacancy Rate in Elgin stands at approximately 8.2%. Total retail space is at 4 million Square
Feet (SF) of which approximately 330,000 SF is vacant. The vacant Lowe’s property represents just over
100,000 SF of the current available vacant property, or 33% of the vacant retail space available in Elgin.
Elgin’s vacancy rate is lower than other cities such as St. Charles (17.2 %), Naperville (12.3 %), and
Aurora (10.1 %). With little new retail construction since 2011, and a low vacancy rate, demand for new
retail construction is building.
5. Property Availability for potential new retail and the redevelopment of existing property could yield
additional opportunity for sales tax revenue growth. Properties located along Randall Road represent the
bulk of available shovel ready retail space. The western third of the City of Elgin, roughly from Randall
Road west to Route 47, offers future retail development opportunities as more households are built.
6. Major Shopping Centers and Competition affecting the City of Elgin:
Algonquin Commons, Algonquin
Geneva Commons, Geneva
Spring Hill Mall, West Dundee
South Elgin Crossing, South Elgin
Sutton Park, Streamwood
Woodfield Mall, Schaumburg
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7. Study Project Areas
The Retail Market Analysis focuses on the nine primary commercial corridors within the City of Elgin:
Randall Road
Downtown Central Business District
McLean Boulevard
Chicago Street
Larkin Avenue
Summit Street
Dundee Avenue
State Street
U.S. Route 20 & Nesler Road
8.
E-Commerce Sales as a percent of total retail sales in the United States represents 6.5% of all retail
sales according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Retail experts predict that e-commerce sales will plateau at
no more than 8.5% of total retail sales. Consumers continue to frequent brick and mortar stores, and
enjoy the personal experience of touching and feeling the products they purchase. The internet will
continue to be a source for consumer searches for retail product information and price. Retailers are
using the internet for marketing their stores and promoting their products.
9. U.S. Shopping Center Occupancy and Net Operating Income had a banner year in 2014 and 2015
according to research from the International Council of Shopping Centers. The U.S. occupancy rate
was 92.7 % for open-air shopping centers, the highest level since 2008. The occupancy rate for
enclosed malls was 94.2 %, a level not seen since 1987. The 34 listed U.S. Real Estate Investment
Trusts delivered returns of 27.62 % with the regional mall category being the strongest with a 32.64 %
return.
10. Elgin’s Retail Market is Stable, shows average spending and low leakage in most categories
according to Dun & Bradstreet’s ESRI research division. Retailers in Elgin do a good job of capturing
the disposable income dollars that consumers spend as reflected by ESRI’s Leakage/Surplus Factor
reports and Market Potential Index reports. Elgin’s retail market has a low vacancy rate, stable lease
rates, and favorable demographics.
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Randall Road Corridor
A basic method for determining the demand for retail facilities on a particular site involves the division of the
Trade Area into smaller parts for analysis. This study will analyze Elgin by dividing it into 9 different corridors.
The Randall Road corridor stretches nearly 8 miles through Elgin serving various consumers and containing
several submarkets. This corridor is the largest and most diverse in Elgin made up of primarily regional retailers
that draw people from a larger area than just Elgin.
Business Data
Randall Road contains over 100 different retailers including 40 restaurants, 15 automotive related businesses, 10
financial institutions and various discount department stores. Retailers found along the corridor such as Starbucks
and Panera Bread primarily serve the local population, while retailers such as Volkswagen and Sam’s Club serve
a larger regional population. This diversity helps to draw consumers from a wider area.
North-Between Northwest Parkway & U.S. 20
7-Eleven, Brilliance Subaru, Burnt Toast, Carmina’s Restaurant & Banquets, Citibank, Dairy Queen/Orange
Julius, FedEx Office Print & Ship Center, Hertz Rent-A-Car, Home Depot, Jimmy’s Charhouse, McGrath Honda,
Nail Art & Spa, Panera Bread, Randy’s Vegetables, Rookies Sports Bar & Grill, Shell Gas, Starbucks, Sushi
Station, T- Mobile, Village Pizza & Pub and Volkswagen.
Midway-Between U.S. 20 & South Street
Aldi, Applebee’s, Baskin Robbins, Big Lots, Boston Market, Burger King, Burlington Coat Factory, Chase Bank,
Citizens Finance, Dunkin Donuts, Edible Arrangements, EzBreezee Carwash, Fannie May, Firestone, First
Community Bank, Great Clips, I-Hop, KFC, Lone Star Steakhouse, Little Panda Chinese, Marcus Elgin Cinema,
McDonald’s, Office Max, Penny’s Place, Sally Beauty Supply, Sears Optical, Subway, Steak and Shake, TMobile, Target, USPS, Valvoline Instant Oil Change, Verizon, Walmart Site and White Cottage Pizzeria.
South-Between South Street & Hopps Road
ATI Physical Therapy, Bakery Serafina, Bank of America, Batteries Plus Bulbs, Circle K Convenience Store,
Discount Tire Store, Dollar Tree, Elgin Family Eye Care, Elgin State Bank, Enterprise Rent-A-Car, First Federal
Savings Bank, Golden Corral, GR8Mart, H & R Block, Jimmy John’s, Kathy Fester-Country Financial, Lou
Malnati’s, Lowe’s Site, Lucid Salon, Meijer Gas Station, Meijer, Menards, Merlin 200,000 Miles Shop, Nick’s
Pizza & Pub, Noodles & Company, Oberweis Dairy, Old Town Pizza Company, PNC Bank, Portillo’s, Quest
Diagnostics, Redbox, Rococo Life, Sam’s Club, Shell Gas, Silver Lake Chinese, Sam’s Club Gas Station, Sport
Clips, Today Nails Spa, Tuffy Auto Service Center, UPS Store, Walmart Supercenter, Wendy’s and Wingstop.
Traffic Volume
Randall Road is a major north-south roadway with four moving lanes and turn lanes. The road serves the Fox
Valley area from Algonquin to the north to Aurora to the south. Randall Road intersects with the Jane Adams
Expressway (Interstate 90) on the north, and the Reagan Memorial Highway (Interstate 88) to the south. In Elgin,
major collector roads include Highland Avenue, Bowes Road and Hopps Road.
Illinois Department of Transportation traffic volume data between major intersections along Randall Road:
On I-90 at Randall Road = 80,400
Randall Road between Northwest Parkway & I-90 = 46,700
Randall Road between I-90 & Highland Avenue = 38,700
Randall Road between Highland Avenue & U.S. 20 = 40,100
Randall Road between U.S. 20 & Bowes Road = 32,900
Randall Road between Bowes Road & Hopps Road = 19,800
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Census Based Demographics on Drive Time and Distance
Census figures include accurate 2015 current-year estimates and 5-year projection of U.S. demographic data
including population, households, income, age, and housing for locations within 5, 10 and 15-minute drive times,
and 1, 3 and 5-mile distances.
Randall Road North
Population
2015 Total Population:
2020 Population:
Pop Growth 2015-2020:
Average Age:
Households
2015 Total Households:
HH Growth 2015-2020:
Median Household Inc:
Avg. Household Size:
2015 Avg. HH Vehicles:
Housing
Median Home Value:
Median Year Built:
1 Mile
11,276
11,602
2.89%
35.6
3 Mile
71,460
73,473
2.82%
36.6
5 Mile
142,579
146,096
2.47%
35.9
3,908
2.79%
$87,094
2.9
2
23,751
2.76%
$82,495
2.9
2
46,377
2.51%
$73,933
3
2
$279,629
1996
$222,239
1990
$193,470
1979
Consumer Spending
Data about products and services Elgin consumers are buying in different categories, including apparel, food and
beverage, financial, and more.
1-Mile Consumer Spending
Retail Marketplace Gap Analysis
The Gap Analysis compares retail sales to consumer spending to measure the “retail gap” between supply and
demand. The “leakage/surplus factor” is a measure between supply and demand that ranges from +100 (total
leakage) to -100 (total surplus). A positive value represents “leakage” of retail opportunity outside of Elgin. A
negative number represents a “surplus” of retail sales, or a market where customers are drawn in from the outside.
This chart tells us where we might find opportunities to supply goods and services to new customers.
5
Industry Group
Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers
Furniture
Building Materials
Health & Personal Care
Clothing Stores
General Merchandise Store
Food & Drinking Places
Food & Beverage Stores
Demand
$339
$37
$61
$151
$109
$285
$198
$272
Supply
$398
$15
$57
$152
$85
$182
$198
$193
Retail
Gap
-$59
$22
$4
-$1
$24
$103
$0
$79
Leakage/
Surplus
Factor
-8.0
41.3
3.3
-0.4
12.7
22.0
0.0
16.9
Randall Road Midway
Population
2020 Population:
Average Age:
Households
Housing
Median Home Value:
Median Year Built:
1 Mile
6,506
6,719
3.27%
42.3
3 Mile
62,562
64,557
3.19%
36.8
5 Mile
155,597
159,282
2.43%
35.9
2,428
3.09%
$82,812
2.6
2
21,412
3.09%
$73,443
2.9
2
51,772
2.44%
$72,413
2.9
2
$214,412
1987
$196,119
1979
$189,666
1980
Consumer Spending
Midway 1-Mile Consumer Spending
Midway 5-Mile Consumer Spending
6
Industry Group
Furniture
Building Materials
Clothing Stores
Demand
$332
$36
$59
$147
$106
$277
$193
$263
Supply
$295
$16
$61
$191
$76
$257
$187
$160
Retail
Gap
$37
$20
-$2
-$44
$30
$20
$6
$103
Leakage/
Surplus
Factor
6.0
37.7
-0.9
-13.1
17.0
3.8
1.5
24.3
Randall Road South
Population
2020 Population:
Average Age:
Households
Housing
Median Home Value:
Median Year Built:
1 Mile
11,177
11,499
2.88%
35.6
3 Mile
69,781
71,735
2.80%
36.6
5 Mile
140,561
144,050
2.48%
36.0
3,862
2.80%
$87,685
2.9
2
23,176
2.74%
$83,271
2.9
2
45,734
2.52%
$74,601
2.9
2
$207,433
1996
$210,207
1991
$197,457
1979
Consumer Spending
7
Industry Group
Furniture
Building Materials
Clothing Stores
Demand Supply
$332
$279
$35
$11
$58
$62
$142
$146
$103
$27
$269
$220
$187
$133
$255
$127
Retail
Gap
$43
$24
-$4
-$4
$76
$49
$54
$128
Leakage/
Surplus
Factor
7.1
52.5
-3.3
-1.2
57.4
10.0
16.6
33.4
The Randall Road Corridor offers the most potential for new retail growth in Elgin today because of the
availability of land, leakage of spending to other communities, traffic volume data, and a combination of other
factors.
East Chicago Street Corridor
The East Chicago Street corridor stretches nearly 2.5 miles through Elgin serving various consumers and
containing several markets. This corridor is draws people from a larger area because of the auto dealers found on
the east side of Elgin.
Business Data
East Chicago Street contains over 35 different retailers including restaurants, automotive repair and sales, and
general merchandise stores. Retailers found along the corridor such as Starbucks and Big Lots primarily serve the
local population, while retailers such as Volkswagen and Sam’s Club serve a larger regional population. This
diversity helps to draw consumers from a wider area.
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Anthony Electronic, Art of Barter, Hollywood Furniture, Evolution Motors, A to Z Rentals, Ultimo Precio, Taylor
Street Pizza, Elgin Beauty Supply, City Bank, Baskin-Robbins, Pizza Hut, 7-Eleven, Renew Auto Sales, Biggers
Mazda, Biggers Chevrolet, Napleton Elgin Kia, Presta Motors, Elgin Hyundai, Renew Auto Sales, Affordable
Autos, Islas Marias, Enterprise Rent-A-Car, Carstar Auto Body Repair Experts, McGrath Nissan, Feeny ChryslerJeep-Dodge, Route 19 Auto Body, Hertz Rent A Car, Xtreme Auto Body, Hopkins Ford, Biggers Mitsubishi,
Cricket Wireless, Subway, San Luis Bakery, Mr. C’s Hot Dogs & More, and Elgin Liquor & Wine.
Traffic Volume
The East Chicago Street Corridor runs from Liberty Street (route 25) on the west to Shales Parkway to the east.
Illinois Department of Transportation traffic volume indicates approximately 12,000 to 13,000 vehicles.
and 1, 3 and 5 mile distances.
Population
2015 Total Population
2020 Population:
Average Age:
Households
Housing
Median Home Value:
Median Year Built:
1 Mile
19,350
19,410
0.31%
33.0
3 Mile
88,252
89,029
0.88%
34.6
5 Mile
183,574
186,507
1.60%
36.1
5,631
0.23%
$55,309
3.4
2
27,962
0.83%
$60,817
3.1
2
61,182
1.61%
$68,281
2.9
2
$150,620
1974
$166,449
1971
$183,440
1977
Consumer Spending
9
Industry Group
Furniture
Building Materials
Clothing Stores
Demand
$383
$42
$69
$170
$123
$320
$93
$303
Supply
$388
$15
$64
$272
$49
$279
$69
$203
Retail
Gap
-$5
$27
$5
-$102
$74
$41
$32
$102
Leakage/
Surplus Factor
-0.6
48.3
3.6
-23.0
42.7
7.0
14.8
20.0
Summit Street Corridor
The Summit Street corridor stretches nearly 3.5 miles through Elgin primarily serving residential neighborhoods.
Business Data
Summit Street contains over 31 different retailers including 3 grocery stores, 4 automotive repair and service
shops, 4 banks, and 10 restaurants.
McDonald’s, El Paraiso, Elgin State Bank, Blue Kangaroo Coin Laundry, Marathon Gas, Walgreens, AutoZone,
PNC Bank, O’Reilly Auto Parts, Little Caesar’s Pizza, Mariscosel Amigo II, Quality Eye Care Clinic, 7-Eleven,
Fifth Third Bank, Taco Bell, Chase Bank, Elgin Fresh Market, Jewel-Osco, Pep Boys Auto Service & Tires,
Chicago Pizza Authority, Aldi, Medicine Shop, Los Girasoles, Chinese Wok, Village Discount Outlet Store,
Amazing Dollar, Subway, Panda, Coinstar, Radio Shack.
Traffic Volume
The Summit Street corridor runs from Dundee Avenue to the west and Rohrssen Road to the east through Elgin.
The Illinois Department of Transportation average daily traffic volume data along Summit Street west of
Hiawatha is approximately 20,000 vehicles. The average daily traffic volume east of Hiawatha on Summit Street
is approximately 10,000 vehicles.
Population
2020 Population:
Average Age:
1 Mile
19,048
19,083
0.18%
34.1
3 Mile
83,229
84,187
1.15%
34.5
10
5 Mile
182,606
185,525
1.60%
35.9
Households
Housing
Median Home Value:
Median Year Built:
5,878
0.02%
$58,137
3.2
2
26,090
1.15%
$59,862
3.1
2
60,424
1.60%
$66,597
3
2
$168,124
1973
$164,017
1968
$180,705
1976
Consumer Spending
Industry Group
Furniture
Building Materials
Clothing Stores
Demand
$368
$40
$67
$164
$119
$310
$215
$296
Supply
$380
$20
$47
$208
$104
$234
$216
$191
11
Retail
Gap
-$18
$20
$20
-$44
$15
$76
-$1
$105
Leakage/
Surplus
Factor
-2.4
33.3
17.7
-11.7
16.6
13.9
-0.2
21.4
Larkin Avenue Corridor
The Larkin Avenue corridor stretches nearly 2 miles through Elgin serving various consumers and containing
several submarkets. This corridor is primarily local retailers that serve the people of that neighborhood, but
somewhat also serves people that drive along this arterial road in Elgin.
Business Data
Larkin Avenue contains over 40 different retailers including restaurants, a grocery store, automotive repair and
service, and neighborhood shopping.
Lakeside Auto Body, Ralph Helm Lawn Equipment Center, Dutch Inn West, Sires Feed and Pet Supply,
Headquarters Salon & Spa, The Gaming Goat, KCT Credit Union, Nesbitt Auto Repair, Custom Cutting Edge
Tool, Smiles for Life Dental, FYDO Land, Pro Wash Express, 3G’s Automotive, Allstate Insurance, Advance
Auto Parts, A-1 Repair, Farmers Insurance, Signarama, Papa John’s Pizza, Winterville, Mobile Gas, Walgreens,
PNC Bank, Fifth Third Bank, Jewel-Osco, Chase Bank, CITGO Gas, Brittain’s Express Oil & Lube, Beef Villa,
Metro PCS Dealer, Dunkin Donuts, McDonald’s, Elgin Vision Center, Escamilla Auto Repair, West Pier
Laundry, Northern Illinois Coin & Stamp, Schechter Auto Sales, and Herb’s Bakery.
Traffic Volume
Larkin Avenue is primarily a two-way, east-west road that generally runs from Randall Road (Illinois Route 34)
to the west and Highland Avenue, near downtown Elgin, to the east. The road serves people travelling into either
neighborhoods surrounding Larkin Avenue, the downtown, or people moving west.
The Illinois Department of Transportation average daily traffic volume data along Larkin Avenue is between
9,000 and 10,000 vehicles.
Population
2020 Population:
Average Age:
Households
Housing
Median Home Value:
Median Year Built:
1 Mile
26,530
26,971
1.66%
32.6
3 Mile
101,134
102,845
1.69%
35.1
5 Mile
173,028
175,991
1.71%
36.2
7,946
1.70%
$46,121
3.2
2
32,733
1.74%
$58,339
3
2
58,009
1.70%
$71,591
2.9
2
$148,639
1947
$162,996
1971
$189,414
1981
12
Consumer Spending
Industry Group
Furniture
Building Materials
Clothing Stores
Demand
$372
$40
$67
$164
$119
$310
$216
$294
Supply
$401
$17
$73
$184
$59
$270
$191
$159
13
Retail
Gap
-$30
$23
-$6
-$20
$60
$40
$25
$135
Leakage/
Surplus
Factor
-3.8
40.7
-4.3
-5.7
33.4
6.8
6.0
29.7
State Street Corridor
The State Street corridor stretches nearly 4 miles through Elgin serving various consumers and containing several
submarkets. This corridor serves people travelling through the area, institutional property owners, industrial
property owners and residential neighborhoods. This corridor is primarily local retailers that serve the people of
specific neighborhood areas, and people that drive along this arterial road in Elgin.
Business Data
State Street contains over 44 different retailers including 10 restaurants and 12 automotive repair/service shops.
Thornton’s Gas, Dunkin Donuts, BP Gas, Alexander’s Restaurant, Bennigan’s, Baskin-Robbins, Jerry’s Café,
Joyeria Eclipse, Viking Thrift and Artwork, Fox Valley Flea Market, Gerber Collision & Glass, ReStore,
Innovative Wireless Solutions, 1 For The Road, PetroLiance Gas, State Street Market Shops, AA Elgin Flower
Shops, Best Auto Body, Inter Auto Repair, Chihuahua Tire, H & N Auto Repair & Tires, Elgin Driveline, Pomp’s
Tire, Abe’s Orphaned Furniture, Collingbournes Interesting Things, Prime Lenders Wiccan Supplies, The Gypsy
Haven, El Faro, Elgin Jewelers, Divine Touch Salon, The Braiding Place, Westside Auto Body, J J Peppers Food
Store, The Walnut Speakeasy, Shell Gas, Papa Smoke, Thai Lao Video & Gift Shop, Asian Food Market,
Silvestres Upholstery, Precision Body Works, Kendall’s Kountry Kitchen, OMHS Car Care, Scott T’s Auto
Repair, and Katz Automotive.
Traffic Volume
State Street, also known as U.S. Route 31, is primarily a two-way, north-south road that generally runs through
Elgin from I-90 to the north to U.S. 20 to the south.
The Illinois Department of Transportation average daily traffic volume data along State Street north of Highland
Avenue is approximately 29,000 vehicles. Traffic Volume along State Street south of Highland Avenue is
approximately 16,000 vehicles.
Population
2020 Population:
Average Age:
Households
Housing
Median Home Value:
Median Year Built:
1 Mile
25,665
26,158
1.92%
32.9
3 Mile
104,165
105,991
1.75%
35.1
5 Mile
173,304
176,356
1.76%
36.2
7,853
1.92%
$47,325
3.2
2
33,778
1.80%
$59,136
3
2
58,008
1.74%
$72,000
2.9
2
$150,364
1947
$164,405
1971
$189,789
1981
14
Consumer Spending
Industry Group
Furniture
Building Materials
Clothing Stores
Demand
$376
$41
$67
$167
$121
$314
$219
$299
Supply
$401
$17
$75
$184
$68
$325
$211
$172
Retail
Gap
-$25
$24
-$8
-$17
$53
-$11
$8
$127
Leakage/
Surplus
Factor
-3.2
41.0
-5.5
-4.9
27.9
-1.7
1.9
27.0
Dundee Avenue Corridor
The Dundee Avenue corridor stretches nearly 2 miles through Elgin primarily serving residential neighborhoods.
Business Data
Dundee Avenue contains over 62 different retailers including 2 banks, 18 restaurants, and 20 automotive repair
and service shops.
Car-X Tire & Auto, Burger King, BMO Harris Bank, America’s Best Contacts & Eyeglasses, Dominos Pizza,
Citgo Gas, Elgin Car Wash, Casa De Estilos, Bumper to Bumper Auto Parts, Lee Auto Parts, Broadway Auto &
15
Equipment Repair, Mercado La Festa, Express Bakery, Merlin 200,000 Miles Shop, Elgin Pharmacy, Jet Xpress
Laundry, The Responsive Mail Room, KFC, Mobile Concepts, CVS Pharmacy, Homestyle Rent-to-Own, Family
Dollar, Banquet Financial, Glamour Hair Salon, Art Olson Appliances & Furniture, This Is It Beauty & Barber,
Gee N Jays, Elgin BBQ Pit, Taqueria Los Comales, Feliciano Auto Repair, Advance Auto Parts, Rus’ Auto
Repairs, Tacos La Flor, K & S Automotive, Gat Bait & Tackle, Hall’s Vacuum & Sewing Center, Velazquez &
Sons Mufflers, Wendy’s, Consumer Financial Services, Lee’s Video, Beef Villa, Lolly’s Doll Houses, Glenwood
Motor Sales, Hoppe’s Tavern, Geno Nottolini’s Pizza & Catering, Xtreme Fashion, Price Rite Liquor, Shoe
Factory, Speed Fasteners Plus, Kar Toyz, BP Gas, Dunkin’ Donuts, Subway, Speedway Gas, Arby’s, Baker Hill
Pancake House, Sherwin-Williams Paint Store, CPM Motors, Roll-N-Donut, Bridgestone-Firestone, Shell Gas
and Murph’s Motor Car.
Traffic Volume
The Dundee Avenue corridor runs from I-90 to the north and Dexter Avenue to the south through Elgin.
The Illinois Department of Transportation average daily traffic volume data along Dundee avenue north of
Congdon Avenue is approximately 22,000 vehicles. The average daily traffic volume along Dundee Avenue south
of Congdon Avenue is approximately 13,000 vehicles.
Population
2020 Population:
Average Age:
Households
Housing
Median Home Value:
Median Year Built:
1 Mile
20,275
20,458
0.90%
33.9
3 Mile
93,448
94,869
1.52%
34.9
5 Mile
178,020
180,963
1.65%
35.9
6,132
1.14%
$52,254
3.2
2
30,041
1.56%
$57,675
3
2
58,976
1.65%
$68,227
3
2
$156,033
1949
$163,467
1968
$182,890
1978
Consumer Spending
16
Industry Group
Furniture
Building Materials
Clothing Stores
Demand
$378
$41
$67
$168
$121
$316
$220
$301
Supply
$399
$16
$72
$177
$72
$325
$219
$173
Retail
Gap
-$21
$25
-$5
-$9
$49
-$9
$1
$128
Leakage/
Surplus
Factor
-2.7
43.8
-3.1
-2.6
25.2
-1.3
0.1
27.0
McLean Boulevard Corridor
The McLean Boulevard corridor stretches nearly 5 miles through Elgin serving various consumers and containing
several submarkets. This corridor serves people travelling through the area, institutional property owners,
industrial property owners and residential neighborhoods. This corridor is primarily local retailers that serve the
people of that neighborhood, but somewhat also serves people that drive along this arterial road in Elgin.
Business Data
McLean Boulevard contains over 75 different retailers including restaurants, a grocery store, automotive repair
and service, and neighborhood shopping.
Pops Pantry, Casey Automotive, Jester’s Fat Food, Big Skillet, McDonald’s, Dunkin Donuts, Subways, Popeye’s
Louisiana Kitchen, Speedway Gas, First Community Bank, Clean Vistas Laundromat, El Faro, City Life Bakery,
17
Amigo Transmission Plus, De La Rosa Market, Butera Market, Western Union, De’s Fashions, Green Jade
Chinese, Today’s Uniforms, Northwest Liquors, McLean Auto Repair, Gold Exchange, Accurate Personnel,
Ameritrust Mortgage Corporation, Hooper’s Sports Bar & Grill, Pizza Hut, NAPA Autoparts, Dollar Tree, Windy
City Jewelry & Loan, The Great Wall, Papa Saverio’s Pizzeria, Juanita’s, Dolex Dollar Express, AutoZone,
Paul’s Restaurant, Larkin Floral & Gifts, Swift & Company Restaurant, BMO Harris Bank, Elgin Fresh Market,
TCS Wireless, Taco Bell, Shell Gas, El Faro, Mobil Gas, White Pearl Restaurant, International Buffet, Boost
Mobile, Family Dollar, Geno’s Fine Wine & Spirits, Elgin Shopping Mall, Cricket Wireless, Lemus Auto Repair,
Bugsy’s Car Wash, Taqueria El Paraiso, Olson Beauty Supply, Jiffy Lube, Wendy’s, Marathon Gas, Hangout Bar
& Grill, Colonial Café, Trendsetters Salon & Spa, Total Home Health, Nella’s Beef, Bunge’s Tire & Auto,
Payless Tobacco, Fusion Fitness, Kyuki-Do Martial Arts, Jang’s Taekwondo, GOGOJI Restaurant and 7-Eleven.
Traffic Volume
McLean Boulevard is primarily a two-way, north-south road that generally runs from I-90 to the north to Bowes
Road to the south.
The Illinois Department of Transportation average daily traffic volume data along Larkin Avenue is between
19,000 and 21,000 vehicles.
Population
2020 Population:
Average Age:
Households
Housing
Median Home Value:
Median Year Built:
1 Mile
17,167
17,642
2.77%
36.8
3 Mile
94,962
97,237
2.40%
35.4
5 Mile
170,811
174,333
2.06%
36.0
5,708
2.72%
$57,912
2.9
2
31,016
2.47%
$61,329
3
2
56,728
2.06%
$72,691
3
2
$167,266
1962
$171,931
1871
$191,153
1981
Consumer Spending
18
Industry Group
Furniture
Building Materials
Clothing Stores
Demand
$372
$40
$66
$164
$119
$310
$216
$294
Supply
$402
$17
$75
$186
$66
$293
$197
$179
Retail
Gap
-$30
$23
-$9
-$22
$53
$17
$19
$115
Leakage/
Surplus
Factor
-3.9
39.8
-6.1
-6.4
28.3
2.7
4.6
26.8
Downtown Central Business District Corridor
The Downtown Central Business District (CBD) corridor is roughly bounded by Kimball Street to the north;
Dundee Avenue, Center Street and Villa Street to the east; National Street to the south; and the Fox River to the
west.
Business Data
The Downtown CBD contains over 69 different retailers including 5 banks, 6 automotive repair and service shops
and 21 restaurants.
Danny’s Pizza, Elgin Food & Fuel Marathon Gas, Price-Rite Gas & Food, Afterset, Town & Country Gardens,
Ziegler’s Ace Hardware, Elgin Key & Lock, Kellenberger Auto Service, The Haight, Crawford’s Automotive,
Elgin Center Pharmacy, J. Zachary Bookseller, Charles Fast Food Taquerias, Fat Cat Custom Guitars & Repair,
19
Docuprint Forms & Signs, La Quebrada, Artistic Framing & Supplies, Domani Café, Fifth Third Bank, Shockey
Jewelers, Floral Impressions, Elgin Knit Works, Soulful Sparrow, Bangkok House, La Herencia De Mis Padres,
Associated Bank, PNC Bank, Bellas Bridal, Elgin Public House, Central Barber Shop, Salon Couture, Blue Box
Café, Topnotch Tattoo, Priority Office Supply, Wall to Wall Retro, Elgin Antiques, Medusa Dance, Kim’s Black
Belt Academy, Rediscover Records, Martini Room, Union National Bank, Al’s Café & Creamery, BBK
Motorsport, Funky Rooster Tattoo & Art Gallery, Chooch’s Pizzeria, Royal Prestige, Bighead Tattoo, Central
Barber Shop, Chase Bank, Tom’s Auto Clinic, Prairie Rock Bar & Grill, Sylvestre’s Upholstery, Dunkin’ Donuts,
Nick’s Liquors, Joe’s Bar-B-Q & Fish, Subway, El Chicanito Bakery, Cricket Wireless, Lynn Beauty Supply,
Payless Shoe Source, Butera Market, Family Dollar, Rent-A-Center, Wing Ho Chop Suey, La Casa Del Pollo
Asado, Hygea Natural Products, Starfire Electronics, and Elgin Flowers.
Traffic Volume
The Downtown CBD corridor bounded by Kimball Street to the north; Dundee Avenue, Center Street and Villa
Street to the east; National Street to the south; and the Fox River to the west.
The Illinois Department of Transportation average daily traffic volume data is 24,400 vehicles on Kimball Street,
4,200 Vehicles on East Highland Avenue, 6,200 vehicles on East Chicago Street, 6,200 vehicles on National
Street, 9,500 vehicles on Villa Street, 12,000 on Center Street, and 12,000 vehicles on Dundee Avenue.
Generally, collector streets within the Downtown CBD have average daily traffic volumes of between 450 and
2,500 vehicles.
Population
2020 Population:
Average Age:
Households
Housing
Median Home Value:
Median Year Built:
1 Mile
26,530
26,971
1.66%
32.6
3 Mile
101,134
102,845
1.69%
35.1
5 Mile
173,028
175,991
1.71%
36.2
7,946
1.70%
$46,121
3.2
2
32,733
1.74%
$58,339
3
2
58,009
1.70%
$71,591
2.9
2
$148,639
1947
$162,996
1971
$189,414
1981
Consumer Spending
20
Industry Group
Furniture
Building Materials
Clothing Stores
Demand
$377
$41
$58
$67
$121
$314
$219
$299
Supply
$396
$17
$62
$74
$62
$338
$213
$171
Retail
Gap
-$19
$24
-$4
-$7
$59
$24
$6
$128
Leakage/
Surplus
Factor
-2.5
42.5
-3.3
-4.8
32.1
-3.6
1.4
27.3
U.S. Route 20 & Nesler Road Corridor
The U.S. Route 20 & Nesler Road Corridor primarily focuses on the western portion of the City of Elgin that is
largely undeveloped and roughly bounded by Pingree Grove to the west, Burnidge Forest Preserve to the north,
Randall Road to the east and South Street to the south.
Business Data
Triumph Community Bank, Marciano’s Pizza & Pastaria, Sammy’s Mexican Grill, Country Donuts, and Old
Second Bank are the only retailers along the corridor.
21
Traffic Volume
The Illinois Department of Transportation average daily traffic volume data for U.S. Route 20 west of Neslor
Road is 19,100 vehicles and 25,000 vehicles east of Nesler Road. Traffic volume on Nesler Road is 7,400
vehicles per day.
Population
2020 Population:
Average Age:
Households
Housing
Median Home Value:
Median Year Built:
1 Mile
4,522
4,721
4.40%
38.2
3 Mile
43,610
45,186
3.61%
37.9
5 Mile
128,793
132,454
2.84%
35.9
1,550
4.13%
$104,403
2.9
2
15,027
3.45%
$84,223
2.8
2
42,556
2.88%
$77,066
3
2
$274,308
2002
$224,176
1992
$203,558
1983
Consumer Spending
22
Industry Group
Furniture
Building Materials
Clothing Stores
Demand
$287
$31
$52
$126
$92
$238
$166
$226
Supply
$46
$9
$44
$105
$44
$207
$112
$110
Retail
Gap
$241
$22
$8
$21
$48
$31
$54
$116
Leakage/
Surplus Factor
72.2
53.9
7.6
9.1
35.6
7.1
19.6
34.4
METHODOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS
The approach has been to identify market forces and existing conditions that directly or indirectly affect
the retail market potential for nine different corridors in Elgin. A number of items were considered and
incorporated into the analysis to determine the widest array of items that could impact retail
development: They included the items listed below:
1. Demographic information such as population, population growth estimates, population
characteristics by location, number of households, household growth estimates, average
household size, household growth estimates median household income, average age, and much
more for 2000, 2010, 2015 and 2020.
2. Census information based upon drive times and distances from a strategic location, retail zoned
lot, and/or other important, identifiable point. Standard distances of 1, 3, and 5 mile used by
retailers when identifying potential retail sites. Common drive times of 5, 10 and 15 minutes
were used to analyze a retail location for its potential.
3. The nine corridors were surveyed for the type and number of businesses in each area. The survey
identifies existing retailers, which gives potential new retailers a look at the competition. Some
retailers use the information because they prefer to be near the completion, while others use the
information because they prefer to stay a certain distance from their competitors.
4. Consumer spending patterns were gathered in key categories such as apparel, entertainment, food
and alcohol, transportation, health care and education. Retailers use this information to
understand the size of the market and amount spent in specific retail categories. Retailers and
developers would eventually research spending in greater detail based upon their specific retail
and development type.
5. Elgin’s existing plans and documents were reviewed and incorporated into the analysis. Zoning
maps, Envision Elgin Comprehensive Plan, Strategic Plan 2013-2017, Illinois Department of
Transportation plans, the draft City of Elgin Existing Conditions Report and other long range
plans affecting the study area.
6. A retail market gap analysis was used to measure the “gap” between supply and demand. A
leakage/surplus factor ranges from +100, total leakage, to -100, total surplus for multiple retail
categories. The analysis is used by retailers to determine the financial opportunity to sell their
product, determine market penetration and ability to move into the market area.
23
Various sources of information were gathered from the following locations:


United States Department of Commerce; Bureau of the Census, QuickFacts, Illinois, City of
Elgin, Kane County, and Cook County.
United States Department of Commerce; Bureau of the Census, 2000 and 2010; Building
Permits, Business, Economy, Education, Employment, Families and Living Arrangements,
Housing, Income and Poverty, and Population; Elgin, Kane County, Cook County and other
cities.

United States Department of Commerce; Bureau of the Census, American FactFinder, 2000 and
2010; Age, Business and Industry, Origins and Language, Race and Hispanic Origin, and others;
Elgin City, Kane County and Cook County.

Illinois Department of revenue, Sales Tax Receipts by Kind of Business, Kane, McHenry and
Cook Counties; and the City of Elgin, Illinois.

City of Elgin; Strategic Plan 2013-2017.

City of Elgin; Envision Elgin Comprehensive Plan and components.

Illinois Department of Transportation; Average Daily Traffic Counts, Featured Road
Improvement Projects, Illinois State Transportation Plan and Illinois State Transportation Plan.

Kane County Division of Transportation; 2040 Roadway Plan and 2040 Transit Plan.

Elgin Chamber of Commerce.

Esri; ArcGIS Platform; Household Budget Expenditures, Maps, Market Profile, Net Worth
Profile, Retail Market Potential, Retail Marketplace Gap Analysis, Restaurant Market Potential,
Tapestry Segmentation, and others.

Hoovers; Dun & Bradstreet Company; City of Elgin, Illinois, Business Build A List and
Analytics, Industry Penetration Report.

CoStar Realty Information Inc.; Analytics, Comparables, Lease Analysis, People, and Property;
Retail Analytics, City of Elgin, Illinois.

Dundee Township Assessor’s Office; Property Search; Elgin, Illinois.

Elgin Township Assessor’s Office; Property Search; Elgin, Illinois.

Kane County Recorder’s Office; Land Records Search; Elgin, Illinois.
24
For further information, please contact:
Tony Lucenko
EDG Director
31 South Grove Avenue
Elgin, Illinois 60120
Ph: 847-741-5660
Cell: 847-809-8711
tlucenko@elgindevelopment.com
25

Report - Elgin Development Group

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