Infrastructure Report

Transcription

Infrastructure Report
June 2016
NETWORK OF HIGHWAYS AND EXPRESSWAYS
Highways
S5
Szczecin
S3
1553.2 km
Gdańsk
S6
Olsztyn
S7
A1
Bydgoszcz
Toruń
S11
Expressways
S8
Białystok
Poznań
A2
Warszawa
S11
S3
S5
S8
Łódź
A1
Radom
S19
S7
Kraków
under construction
S7
planned
2016
Lublin
2017
2018
2019
Katowice
S1
existing
BUDGET FOR ROADS (PLN)
A2
S17
Wrocław
A4
1495.7 km
2020
A4
19.0 bln
26.1 bln
27.1 bln
25.3 bln
21.6 bln
Rzeszów
MAIN TRUNK RAIL LINES
160 km/h or higher roads
1420 km
Gdańsk
Szczecin
E59
C-E65
Poznań
E20
C-E59
Wrocław
C-E59
existing
under construction
planned
E75
Białystok
Katowice
E20
C-E65
Radom
E65
NR8
E30
Kraków
3420 km
80–120 km/h
Warszawa
Łódź
E59
E30
120–160 km/h
E65
Bydgoszcz
5770 km
BUDGET FOR RAIL LINES (PLN)
2016
2017
Rzeszów
2018
2019
2020
7.1 bln
6.2 bln
9.6 bln
14.3 bln
18.4 bln
The last two
months
in infastructure
Świnoujście
Białystok
Poznań
Warszawa
Dorohusk
Wrocław
PROGRESS OF KEY INVESTMENTS:
Tunnel in Świnoujście: GDDKiA announced a tender for the design and construction of a 3.5 km long connection between the city and the road network on
the Wolin island. The tunnel ought to be ready in 2022 and will become a part of
the national road DK3. The investment will be financed by the city, mostly through
the European funds and tax income from the LNG terminal. It may cost as much as
PLN 920 mln, but the municipality counts on 85 per cent EU support.
S5 Poznań-Wrocław expressway: A construction of four segments between
Wronczyn and Kaczkowo has commenced. These parts are 63.6 km in length in total; they are constructed by Budimex and Mota-Engil. The value of all the contracts
in total exceeds PLN 1.3 bln and the road should be ready in 2019. The part from
Poznań to Wronczyn is built by consortium of Toto and Vianin Lavori.
Railway line 7 Warsaw-Dorohusk (Ukraine): PKP PLK concluded the first stage
of a tender for the nearly 150-km-long section between Warsaw and Lublin. Eight
companies are competing for the Dęblin-Lublin section and nine companies each
are competing for the Otwock-Pilawa and Pilawa-Dęblin sections. PKP PLK has
closed the tender for the modernisation of line 30 from Łuków to Parczew. The
lowest from nine bids for this contract is worth PLN 22 million.
Railway E75 Rail Baltica (Warsaw-Białystok-Lithuania): Ten companies have
bidded in the first stage of the tender for 35.5-km-long Sadowne-Czyżew section,
including a Chinese consortium of CNTIC and CREC. Simultaneously PKP PLK is
tendering the contracts for modernisation of lines 31, 32 and 36. Seven companies are bidding for this contract. The next stage of Rail Baltica from Czyżew to
Białystok has been awarded EUR 303 mln support from the EU.
24.03
2016
Chinese companies want to invest in Polish railways.
A consortium of firms owned by China Railway Group (CRC) is taking part in the tender to build the Rail
Baltica line on the Sadowne-Czyżew stretch. Earlier on,
Sinohydro submitted an offer in the tender to build the
Sochaczew-Swarzędz line. Chinese contractors are trying
to return to Poland after a flagship investment failure,
when COVEC, owned by CRC, had to withdraw from the
construction of the A2 motorway a few years ago. Attracting companies from outside the EU is one of the key aims
of PKP PLK’s investment plan, prepared by the company’s
previous management board.
01.04
2016
Polish and Russian MinInfras set out conditions for
transport to Russia. The new agreement will give Polish
firms 170,000 permits to transport goods to Russia, including 30,000 individual ones for goods transferred from
third countries. Russia will also change the law so that
Polish hauliers can enter Russia will products from foreign
companies’ Polish factories. Without this change,
85 per cent of Polish hauliers would have been eliminated
from the Russian market. The permits will be valid until
the end of the year, and Warsaw and Moscow will now
begin negotiations regarding a new road transport deal.
12.04
2016
MinMar announces investment in inland waterways.
The inland shipping strategy assumes that the Odra
river will reach at least the fourth navigability class in its
entirety by 2020, through a PLN 2.9 bln investment. At
present, only 7 km of the river close to its estuary meet
the aforesaid standards. By 2030, the government wants
also to develop the Odra waterway, construct the Silesian
channel connecting Odra and Vistula, and create the Polish section of the Danube-Odra-Elbe channel for a total
of PLN 30.7 bln. The dilatation of Vistula will require
PLN 31.5 bln by 2030.
Polityka Insight – Infrastructure Report June 2016
14.04
2016
LOT will reduce its growth plans. The company board will
present its updated strategy to the MinTrea this summer
- deputy MinTrea Filip Grzegorczyk declared during a
Sejm’s committee meetings. In his view the carrier has to
reject any “grand plans” and instead bet on a slower, but
more sustainable development. This means the strategy
presented last year by the former CEO Sebastian Mikosz
will need to be scaled down. Rafał Milczarski, who has
been serving as CEO since January, stressed that LOT
cannot afford new airplanes right now. The company will
have to lease new aircraft instead.
Major funds set aside for Świnoujście tunnel. GDDKiA
has announced a tender to design and build a tunnel
linking Świnoujście with the national road network. Its
construction will be financed by the city municipality,
supported by EU funds. The investment is to cost around
PLN 920 mln; the local authorities expect 85 per cent of
this to come from EU funds. Part of the remaining
15 per cent will come from the tax on the LNG terminal in
Świnoujście. Alongside digging through the Vistula Spit,
the tunnel is the government’s key political investment in
Pomorze region.
19.04
2016
EU railway market to be liberalised. EurParl and member
states representatives agreed on the terms of the
IV railway package. By 2023 the member states will have
to open tenders for regional rail connections – currently,
in most countries they are assigned without a procurement procedure to public companies. From December
2020 onwards, all limitations on market access for the
rail companies from other EU countries should be lifted.
Those rules should hasten up Przewozy Regionalne
restructuring.
2
22.04
2016
Supreme Audit Chamber (NIK) criticises State Airports.
According to the Chamber’s report, State Airports have
lost around PLN 30 mln since 2008 due to unfinished
investment. The biggest loss was caused by the construction of a pipeline for petrol leading to the aircraft stands.
However, the rail unloading terminal to feed the system
was never constructed. Making the pipeline usable
again would cost up to PLN 90 mln. Due to the losses on
investment and overemployment, State Airports needed
to usher in a restructuring plan in 2014.
27.04
2016
Chinese companies could build Poland’s Central Airport.
After his visit to China, MinFor Witold Waszczykowski
said that Chinese companies are interested in investing in
infrastructure in Poland, including building a new central
airport between Warsaw and Łódź. According to various
estimates, it could cost up to several dozen billion złoty,
taking into account access roads and railway lines. According to industry experts, there is no need for a hub, as the
airports in Warsaw and Modlin still have unused capacity.
28.04
2016
Two Polish companies exempt from EU railway law.
EurParl adopted the proposal of the technical part of the
fourth railway package, which aims to liberalise the
EU railway market. In line with the provisions, from January 1, 2019 railway carriers will not be able to manage
railway infrastructure. The package will not apply to two
Polish companies, PKP LHS (which manages transport
on the broad gauge railway from Śląsk to Ukraine) and
SKM from Trójmiasto. Without the exemption they would
become unviable due to an increase in the costs of access
to the tracks.
11.05
2016
LOT registers a loss, but improves revenue. During the
first four months of 2016 the state-owned airlines registered a PLN 33 mln loss, compared to PLN 181 mln a year
ago. The operational profit has also improved –
LOT CEO Rafał Milczarski said. The loss would have been
larger, if LOT had not reduced it through accounting operations related to fuel purchases. Milczarski underlined
that expansion of the airline’s fleet is a priority and it will
commence with two new Boeing 787 Dreamliners, which
will be delivered to LOT next year.
03.06
2016
Government wants to facilitate Chinese infrastructural
investment. A working group has been created in the
PMChan, tasked to create framework rules for cooperation of Polish firms with Chinese construction companies
in the infrastructure sector. The group is chaired by
Radosław Domagalski-Łabędzki, undersecretary of state
at MinDev responsible for cooperation with foreign
investors. He is joined by representatives of seven other
ministries. The rules created by the group should allow
for construction of roads, railways and airports which
cannot be funded from European or national sources by
Chinese investors.
06.06
2016
New planes at LOT from 2017. According to our sources
the airline is in talks with leasing companies and could
acquire six to eight new, medium-sized planes (around
150 seats) within a few weeks. LOT would not buy the
machines, just rent them, as it is cheaper and faster to
arrange. The first new planes should join its fleet in
Q1 2017; the options are the Airbus A320, Boeing 737
and Bombardier CSeries.
08.06
2016
EurCom wants to open the skies to Middle Eastern countries. MinTrans of EU member states approved the launch
of talks on agreements liberalising the aviation market
with Qatar, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and ASEAN
countries. The negotiations, which are a major element in
EU aviation strategy, will be led by EurCom and will aim to
lift restrictions on flights between these countries and the
EU. Passengers will benefit, as the number of flights will
increase. European airlines will suffer, as they are already
losing the competition with airlines from Turkey and the
Persian Gulf.
09.06
2016
PKP Intercity announces tender for repair of carriages.
The contractor will have 42 months to refurbish
186 railway cars of a dozen types. This is the biggest
single tender to repair carriages in PKP Intercity’s history.
For years, the company has had problems with cars and
engine deficiencies in the summer and it prepares for
increased traffic during World Youth Day. PKP Intercity’s
new management wants more repairs to be carried out
by its subsidiary, Remtrak, so this company will probably
submit a more economic offer.
PEOPLE ON THE MOVE:
Krzysztof Mamiński
became CEO of
Przewozy Regionalne.
Mirosław Pawłowski
became CEO of
PKP SA.
Ireneusz Merchel
became CEO of
PKP PLK.
Łukasz Greinke
became CEO of the
Gdańsk Sea Port
Authority.
Maciej Bachman
became cEO of
Pekaes S.A.
3
RAILWAY SECTOR
Who are the new CEOs
of rail companies
The reshuffle in management boards of key rail
entities has entered its final stage. People with
experience in the sector have taken over from
the hands of Jakub Karnowski’s team of bankers.
Dominik Sipiński, Business analyst
PKP SA: CEO Mirosław Pawłowski. On November 30, 2015, CEO
Jakub Karnowski and his deputy Piotr Ciżkowicz stepped down.
Bogusław Kowalski then became head of PKP, but only for two
days – he resigned after he was accused of having cooperated
with the communist secret police. Mirosław Pawłowski has been
the acting CEO since then, and on April 7 he became the CEO.
He has worked at PKP since 2001, serving as member of PKP
PLK management board until 2009. Pawłowski was a board
member of PKP Energetyka in 2002-2005, and now enjoys
a major leverage regarding the sector’s key staff appointments.
PKP Intercity: Marek Chraniuk. The carrier’s new head has
been working in the rail sector for 24 years - it turned out to
be the main argument in favour of his appointment. Earlier
on, Chraniuk had been involved in the process of drawing up
timetables and developing Intercity’s offer. As a CEO, he will
focus on PKP Intercity timetable and trade integration with
other carriers. He also needs to cope with the problem of a lack
of operable carriages, most likely by commissioning Remtrak,
which is Intercity’s subsidiary company, to carry out necessary
overhauls. The management board also includes Jarosław
Oniszczuk and Artur Resmer.
PKP Cargo: Maciej Libiszewski. The freight carrier’s CEO
since the end of January. A lawyer and manager linked with
PiS – he was, among others, an assistant to Lech Kaczyński
and a member of Srebrna management board. In 2005-2008,
he sat on PKP Cargo supervisory and management board.
Libiszewski pledged to develop single-carriage transport
and focus the company’s activities on the domestic market.
Pressed by trade unions, he abandoned the plan to move the
company’s headquarters. The management board also includes:
Grzegorz Fingas, Arkadiusz Olewnik and Jarosław Klasa. Polityka Insight – Infrastructure Report June 2016
PKP PLK: Ireneusz Merchel. Three competitions were required
to select a new management board of the infrastructure company – the first was not decided, only two board members were
chosen in the second one, but the company and candidates
failed to agree on the employment conditions. Chief Executive Ireneusz Merchel is a manager with experience in the
railway sector, who spent years heading the Olsztyn branch of
PKP PLK. The management board also includes Małgorzata
Kuczewska-Łaska, a banker and former head of Przewozy
Regionalne in 2010-2013, as well as Włodzimierz Żmuda and
Antoni Jasiński – both are long-lasting employees of PKP PLK. Przewozy Regionalne: Krzysztof Mamiński. He replaced Tomasz
Pasikowski first as the acting CEO, and since April 13 as the
CEO. He is a 36-year veteran of the rail sector: he was, among
other things, head of the sector’s “Solidarność” in 1990-1998
and PKP management board plenipotentiary for social dialogue. He stepped down after falling out with Jakub Karnowski
in a dispute regarding the liquidation of some benefits for the
group’s employees. He has headed a training company called
CS Szkolenie i Doradztwo, in which PKP holds a roughly
25 per cent share since 2013. In addition, he serves as the head
of the Association of Railway Employees (ZPK).
WHAT’S NEXT
Bankers who worked at PKP and Przewozy Regionalne have been replaced with people with ties to
the rail sector – this is MinInfra’s reaction to the
demands voiced by trade unions, which asked to
“bring back rail to rail workers”. Similar level of
experience among the CEOs and their overlapping
views on the role played by state-controlled carriers
will facilitate the creation of a national rail holding.
There is a considerable risk, however, that when the
new leadership will begin to increase the number of
connections and fulfil the demands voiced by trade
unions, it will jeopardise the financial situation of
rail companies, leading to an increase in subsidies
for Przewozy Regionalne and PKP Intercity, which
will in turn weaken the results of PKP Cargo.
4
FOREIGN INVESTMENT
Chinese companies push
to enter Polish market
President Xi Jinping visited Warsaw this week.
Chinese businesses that build railway lines, regulate
rivers and make rolling stock hope to win contracts
in Poland. Dominik Sipiński, Business analyst
Sinohydro Corporation: rivers, networks and rail. The Beijing-based company was already involved in regulating the Wrocław
floodway system on the Oder. The investment, which cost
a total of PLN 306 mln, was completed in 2015 and was the
largest Chinese project ever conducted in Poland. Sinohydro
is now showing considerable interest in projects that are part
of Poland’s plan of expanding inland navigation, worth over
PLN 30 bln. The company is also building 67 km of power
transmission lines for PSE for PLN 154 mln – the transmission
network between Chełm and Lublin is to be finished by 2021.
Sinohydro is also participating in the tender to modernise the
E20 Warsaw – Poznań railway line.
China Railway Construction: large gauge. The state-controlled
group CRCC is the world’s third largest construction company.
It carries out projects in 60 countries – mainly in Asia and
Africa. CRCC is set to become one of the largest contractors
of railway lines for the new Silk Road – it will build, among
other things, a second line between Urumqi in China to Tehran. Poland could be interested in the construction of a large
gauge line from its border with Belarus to the transhipment
centre in Łódź.
China National Technical Import Export: rail and energy sector. It is another state-owned company interested in investing in
Poland, set up in 1952 and specialising in energy and transport
investment. CNTIC built hydroelectric power plants in Armenia and Tajikistan, and carried out transport investment for
a total of over PLN 2.6 bln in a number of countries, including
Uzbekistan and Sri Lanka. In its effort to enter Poland, CNTIC is
cooperating with subsidiary companies of the state-controlled
China Railway Engineering Corp., world’s largest construction
group and CRCC’s rival. The consortium of CNTIC and CREC
took part in tenders to construct Rail Baltica railway lines as
well as the Warsaw – Radom railway line.
China Railway Rolling Stock: fast trains. The state-controlled
company is the world’s largest producer of rolling stock. CRRC
offers locomotives used for passenger or freight trains, electric
multiple units (EMU) and high-speed trains for local markets
– in China, it controls as much as 90 per cent of the market.
The group had already sold, among other things, metro carriages to Chicago for USD 1.3 bln, EMUs to Argentina for over
USD 1 bln, metro carriages to Hong Kong for USD 750 mln.
BYD Auto: buses and electric cars. This private company is
an unquestionable leader in the production of batteries for
mobile phones. In addition, it also operates on the market of
car batteries and electric cars. The model F3DM from 2008
was the world’s first mass-produced plug-in hybrid. China remains BYD’s main market, but its passenger cars are exported
to, among others, Ukraine and Moldova. Developed countries,
on the other hand, such as the US or Germany, purchase buses.
In Poland, BYD wanted to win a contract for the delivery of
10 e-buses to Warsaw, but after Solaris appealed the verdict,
BYD’s offer was viewed as containing dumping prices.
WHAT’S NEXT
Despite a fiasco of the construction of the A2
motorway by China’s COVEC, Polish authorities
remain more open to Chinese companies than
the governments of other CEE countries. Poland
plays a key role in a group of regional countries
16+1 that is being set up by China. It also lies on
the route of the planned new Silk Road. Large
Chinese groups hope for tenders announced by
PKP PLK or GDDKiA, and they can also carry
out investment financed by the Chinese government. Over the course of more than a dozen
weeks, a special team at PMChan is set to develop
of a framework for their presence in Poland.
5
RAILWAY SECTOR
Railway investments
see a major boost
After several months of a standstill in the
sector, the investment process has started,
but the delays of 2015 will be very difficult to
make up for.
New management at PKP PLK. At the end of March, Ireneusz
Merchel became the new CEO of the company. He is a former
railwayman, who has headed the Olsztyn branch of the company for years. In turn, the person responsible for investment
in the new management is Grzegorz Muszyński. He is a PiS
councillor in the Lubelskie regional assembly and a former CEO
of Lublin’s airport. Merchel is expected to provide expertise in
infrastructure with the management board, and Muszyński - in
EU funds and investment supervision.
Investments have gained momentum. From December to
March, PKP PLK announced almost no significant tenders
for the modernisation of railway lines and the decisions in
the proceedings opened by the previous management were
postponed. In April, however, the company opened dozen
or so tenders, primarily on the projects themselves. This is
due to the fact that PKP PLK steers away from the model of
allocating the projects and their implementation to the same
entity, what has been criticised by the industry. The separation
of tasks is intended to reduce the risk for the contractors and
streamline the investment process.
In 2016, mostly small projects. According to the new management board’s announcements, the freight trains will reach
an average speed of 35 km/h since the implementation of the
December timetable (currently 27 km/h), mainly thanks to
the acceleration of small investments, which may significantly improve the throughput. Many of these projects are to be
financed by PKP PLK itself in single-stage tenders, which
will speed up the process of contractors’ selection. This is an
opportunity to minimise the investment gap - the original
plan assumed that the company would spend over PLN 7 bln
in 2016; currently MinInfra and PKP PLK are talking about
nearly PLN 4 bln.
Big problems with mega-investments. The previous management announced big tenders in autumn, among others, on
the construction of ERTMS traffic management system for
PLN 3.4 bln and repairs of the Lublin - Warszawa line for
PLN 3.5 bln. However, they were poorly prepared and were
designed mainly to bring a PR win. The deadlines for submitting
the bids were repeatedly postponed. The new management
wants to divide the projects into smaller tasks, which should
allow a larger number of companies to participate, and limiting
the two-stage tenders is also possible. Settlements in the proceedings are expected to speed up the changes.
Accumulation of investments at the end of the decade. Merchel
has announced that PLK will complete all the investments
in the national railway programme by 2023. He also plans to
move part of the expenditure from 2019-2020 to 2017-2018,
in order to even out the value of investments in all the years.
Achieving these objectives seems, however, unlikely, mainly
due to the lower than planned level of spending in 2015 and
delays in inviting the major tenders. This increases the risk
of accumulation of work at the end of the decade, which will
cause difficulties for the carriers and complicate finding the
contractors, who will have problems with planning the employment and resources.
WHAT’S NEXT
The railway was the weakest link in the investments co-financed from the EU budget in 20072013, and the first two years of the new financial
perspective have not improved the situation. The
previous PKP PLK management board had a plan
to streamline the auctions, but did not manage
to bring it about – the investments initiated just
before the election were not prepared well, and
the proceedings will probably not be resolved
before the second half of 2016. The company’s
new management is in a difficult situation – in order
to make the funds available, it will be shortening
the procedures, which may lead to complications
in the implementation phase and to the accumulation of projects in the years 2019-2020. 6
RAILWAY SECTOR
How the New Silk Road
is going to function
Poland could become an important
transhipment centre thanks to the planned
construction of new rail and sea links
between China and Europe.
New transfers by land and sea. The idea to create new trade
routes to Europe was announced by the government in Beijing
in 2013. Originally it was meant to be a railway, and then
a concept was also enlarged to include a sea connection, the
so-called One Belt, One Road project. The overland route is
to start in Xi›an in central China, and the sea passage - in the
port of Fuzhou. Construction of new corridors and the modernisation of existing ones will help fostering the development
of trade between the EU and China.
Route still to be delineated. The new Silk Road remains a network of transport corridors between China and Europe. The
most important difference between the possible land route
options concerns including Russia in its course - one scenario
would involve using the Trans-Siberian railway and the route
would run from Xi›an through Urumqi in China, Kazakhstan,
Russia and Belarus to Europe. The so-called Southern variant
includes Kazakhstan, the countries of Central Asia, Iran and
Turkey. The sea route is also unspecified – it includes ports
in Indonesia, India and Kenya. Altogether, the One Belt, One
Road concept includes possible investments in approximately
60 countries.
Poland a possible gateway to the EU. Building the Silk Road
is connected with the model of cooperation with the countries of Central and Eastern Europe set up in 2012, the
so-called 16+1 group. In the case of a route through Russia,
Poland would become a major transhipment centre. Currently,
rail connections between Poland and China are provided by
a private company, Hatrans, and PKP Cargo. Thanks to the
Russian-Belarusian-Kazakh customs union, trains on this
route pass through customs only twice. Poland would lose out
on the maritime option – the terminal ports would probably
set in Piraeus and Venice.
China the principal sponsor. A key role in financing the project will be played by Chinese state-owned Silk Road Fund,
established in 2014 with an initial capital of USD 40 bln. The
investment will be supported by the Asian Infrastructure
Investment Bank (AIIB), whose capital will eventually reach
USD 100 bln. The AIIB comprises approximately 60 countries, including Poland, and 30 per cent of the fund›s capital
is guaranteed by Beijing. Projects under the One Belt One
Road scheme are implemented mainly by Chinese firms - the
value of contracts in January and February amounted to
USD 15.5 bln, more than 50 per cent up on the previous year.
Silk Road will allow for China’s political and economic expansion. For Beijing, its importance is primarily economic. China’s
investments in Central Asia and the building of corridors
in the region will weaken the economic position of Russia
in countries such as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Beijing also
wants better access to the markets of Central and Eastern
Europe. The Road is also geopolitically important because it
allows for China›s expansion and an increase in its influence
throughout Eurasia. Beijing has launched a series of cultural
and diplomatic initiatives and invested in the development of
the country›s western regions.
WHAT’S NEXT
The new Silk Road is not a plan to build a transport
corridor, but rather a set of initiatives to improve
the conditions of trade between China and Europe.
The investment is calculated over many years and
has no precise final shape but is highly flexible, with
alternatives transport routes proposed to avoid international disputes. Within the framework of One
Belt One Road scheme, there can be many individual investments, which will also benefit Europe
(for example a high-speed railway in the Balkans).
Thanks to the Silk Road, Beijing may also influence
the actions of Russia and the EU - in the case of political conflict, they can be left out when selecting a
route for the Road and the location of investments. 7
AVIATION
Government seeks
investor for LOT
The national carrier needs capital and
planes but the treasury ministry will not
relinquish the majority stake.
No investor in sight. The restructuring of LOT was supposed
to lead to the privatisation of the airline because, without
external capital, it does not stand a chance of long-term profitability. The PO-PSL government was considering full sale
under certain conditions like preserving the brand name and
keeping its base in Warsaw. The current MinTrea says the
investor could receive up to 49 per cent of LOT’s shares.
Ministry representatives are looking for buyers in countries
including China, but hardly anyone is interested in a minority
package in the company in a difficult financial situation and of
uncertain profitability. LOT could be capitalised by companies
from the financial sector or by Polish state-owned companies.
Other airlines will probably not buy LOT. Selling it to another
airline has long been the main course of action. In 1999,
Swissair became a strategic investor in LOT but went bankrupt as a result of the crisis in the industry after September
11, 2001. British Airways placed a bid next, but it did not get
beyond negotiations. Turkish Airlines withdrew because EU
law does not allow the purchase of a European line by an entity
from outside the union. LOT will not be acquired by Lufthansa
either, since it is now focused on acquiring Brussels Airlines or
SAS. Other potential buyers are Etihad Airways or Air China.
Sector investors could be interested. In 2015, American fund Indigo Partners was on the verge of acquiring LOT, but MinTrea
did not finalise the transaction. A sector investor could not
only invest capital in LOT but also offer the possibility of
cooperation with other carriers. In this way, the Portuguese
government managed to sell TAP, which was in an equally
difficult situation to LOT; it was purchased by Brazilian David
Neeleman and Portuguese businessman Humbert Pedrosa.
Chinese HNA Group, which has already invested in airlines
in Europe, is a potential buyer of LOT.
Financial investors could capitalise LOT. If a financial institution gets involved, LOT will receive capital in cash or, more
likely, assets, but the operational benefits would be smaller.
The most advantageous solution would be to attract an aircraft leasing company (the largest on the market are Dutch
company AerCap and Irish-American GECAS). It could bring
planes to LOT, solving its shortage. At the same time, it would
be a relatively safe as, if LOT gets into trouble, it could take
away the aeroplanes.
State-owned companies, LOT’s last resort. PI has learnt that the
MinTrea is circulating the idea of including Polish state-owned
companies in the rescue of LOT, but it is not being implemented.
One possibility is LOT›s integration with Porty Lotnicze and
setting up Polski Holding Lotniczy; this solution, modelled
on the Czech Republic’s, was already analysed by the previous
government. Merging LOT with railway companies is also
being considered. It would provide operational and financial
benefits, but is opposed by all the comapnies’ CEOs, and not
even popular at MinTrea. EurCom could also deem any investment of state capital in LOT aid and block it.
WHAT’S NEXT
LOT needs an injection of capital, not only for
development but also to survive in the medium
term. The carrier cannot afford new planes; without
this, it will not be able to compete with bigger
players and will be pushed out of the market.
Today, non-European companies have capital in
the airline industry, but MinTrea does not want to
hand over control over the national carrier, and EU
regulations prohibit the sale of a majority package
to a buyer (airlines or other entity) from outside
the EU. Therefore, LOT and MinTrea are seeking
different types of investor which could, for instance, bring aircraft to the airline. Given LOT’s uncertain future, the lack of funds even for deposits
on aircraft and the strong politicisation of LOT,
the chances of these efforts succeeding are slim.
8
Road and rail investments
On July 31 2015 there were 3,041 kilometres of fast roads in
Poland, including 1,553.2 kilometres of highways and 1,495.8
kilometres of expressways. The PO-PSL government adopted
the National Roads Construction Programme for 2014-2023
(with perspective until 2025) in September 2015. It assumes
the construction of 3,900 kilometres of new fast roads and
57 new ring roads will be built. This should lead to the decrease
of an average travel time between the voivodships capitals by
at least 15 per cent. The PiS government is currently working
on revising the Programme.
At the end of 2014 PKP PLK had ca. 18,500 kilometres of railways under management. 71 per cent of this network allowed
for trains speeds not higher than 120 kph. In September, the
PO-PSL government adopted the National Railway Programme,
which sets out the intvestment priorities until 2023. The strategy does not include any new lines. The total budget of the
Programme until 2023 amounts to PLN 67.5 bln, out of which
less than PLN 10 bln will come from the national budget. The
Programme assumes that some 8,500 kilometres of railway
lines will be modernised.
ROADS: CONSTRUCTION UNDERWAY
length
contractor
worth
opening date
voivodeship
S5 Kościan-Radomicko
16 km
Mota-Engil
PLN 303 mln
2019
Wielkopolskie
S5 Wronczyn-Kościan
19 km
Budimex
PLN 359.4 mln
2019
Wielkopolskie
S51 obwodnica Olsztyna
14.7 km
Budimex
PLN 913 mln
2018
Warmińsko-Mazurskie
length
contractor
worth
opening date
voivodeship
line 7 Lublin-Lublin Północny
ca. 10 km
ZUE
PLN 11.3 mln
2016
Lubelskie
line 62 Dąbrowa Górnicza Strzemieszyce-Sosnowiec Dańdówka
9.6 km
ZUE and KZA
PLN 23 mln
2016
Śląskie
line 380 Jankowa Żagańska-Sanice 33 km
ECO-BAZA
PLN 34.6 mln
2019
Lubuskie
line 169 Tychy-Łaziska Średnie
17 km
Skanska
PLN 39.4 mln
2016
Śląskie
line 22 Radzice-Radom
60.2 km
PRB „TOR”
PLN 23 mln
no data
Łódzkie, Mazowieckie
line 8 Skarżysko Kamienna-Suchedniów
13.2 km
ZUE
PLN 21.6 mln
2017
Świętokrzyskie
line 95 Kraków-Podłęże
8.5 km
ZUE
PLN 35.8 mln
2018
Małopolskie
RAIL LINES: CONSTRUCTION UNDERWAY
9
ROADS: TENDERS UNDERWAY
length
contractor
offers until
opening date
A2 Warszawa-Mińsk Maz.
14.6 km
18, 19 firm declared interest
-
2020
Mazowieckie
A6 Szczecin-Rzęśnica
3.5 km
16 firms declared
interest
-
2020
Zachodniopomorskie
S1 Pyrzowice-Podwarpie
9.7 km
23 firms declared interest
-
2018
Śląskie
S3 Brzozowo-Miękowo
22.4 km
-
2020
Zachodniopomorskie
S6 Gdynia - Lębork
65.5 km
20-22 firms declared interes
-
2019
Pomorskie
S6 Sławno-Słupsk
25.0 km
-
2019
Zachodniopomorskie
S6 Słupsk-Lębork
40 km
-
2019
Pomorskie
S7 Kraków-Małopolskie border
55.4 km
-
no data
Małopolskie
S7 Napierki-Płońsk
71.2 km
17-19 firms declared interest
-
2020
Mazowieckie
S7 Warszawa-Grójec
29.3 km
-
no data
Mazowieckie
S10 Szczecin-Stargard Szczeciński
6.4 km
-
2020
Zachodniopomorskie
S11 Kępno ring road (part 1)
4.4 km
10 bids from PLN 66 to 113 mln
-
no data
Wielkopolskie
S11 Kępno ring road (part 2)
7.0 km
-
2019
Wielkopolskie
S14 Łódź Western Ring Road
28.5 km
-
no data
Łódzkie
S17 Warsaw Eastern Ring Road
2.5 km
-
no data
Mazowieckie
S17 Tomaszów Lubelski ring road
9.6 km
-
2020
Lubelskie
S19 Lubelskie border
-Sokołów Małopolski
54.2 km
-
no data
Podkarpackie
S19 Kraśnik-Lasy
33 km
-
2019
Lubelskie
S19 Lublin-Kraśnik
42 km
-
2019
Lubelskie
Lubelska junction
junction
-
no data
Mazowieckie
Wrocław bypass
9.9 km
tender underway
-
2019
Dolnośląskie
S61 Szczuczyn-Raczki
63 km
tender underway
24 June 2016
2020
Świnoujście tunnel
3 km
tender underway
15 June 2016
2022
Zachodniopomorskie
voivodeship
10
RAIL LINES: TENDERS UNDERWAY
length
contractor
offers until opening date
voivodeship
E-59 Leszno-Czempiń
ca. 36 km
-
2019
Wielkopolskie
E30 Kraków Mydlniki - Kraków
Główny Towarowy
4.8 km
9 firms invited to bid
-
2019
Małopolskie
E30 Trzebinia–Jaworzno Szczakowa 14.2 km
-
end 2017
Małopolskie
13.4 km
-
end 2017
Małopolskie
tender underway
16/09/2016
no data
whole country
-
no data
Wielkopolskie
E30 Krzeszowice-Trzebina
implementation of ERTMS/GSM-R 13600 km
line 354 Poznań - Piła
93 km
-
no data
lines 31, 32, 36 - Rail Baltica bypass ca. 255 km
Podlaskie,
Mazowieckie
line 30 - Parczew - Łuków
(signalling)
52 km
3 bids (PLN 21.2-26.3 mln) -
no data
Lubelskie
line 30 - Parczew - Łuków
(railroad works)
52 km
9 bids (PLN 22.1-33.2 mln) -
no data
Lubelskie
line 8 - Czachówek - Warka
19.3 km
-
2020
Mazowieckie
line 8 - Warka - Radom
42.7 km
-
2020
Mazowieckie
line E59 Leszno - granica
woj. dolnośląskiego
ca. 36 km
-
2019
Wielkopolskie
Warsaw rail bypass
ca. 12 km
-
2018
Mazowieckie
E20 Sochaczew-Swarzędz
237 km
3 parts: 10-11 bids
-
2017
Mazowieckie, Łódzkie, Wielkopolskie
line 447 Warszawa-Grodzisk Maz.
24.5 km
-
2018
Mazowieckie
line 229 Lębork-Łeba
32.4 km
7 bids (PLN 0.7-2.4 mln)
-
no data
Pomorskie
lines 140, 148, 157, 159, 173, 689
i 691 Chybie - Nędza/Turze
ca. 60 km
-
2019
Śląskie
E30 within Kraków
19 km
-
no data
Małopolskie
line 7 Otwock-Lublin
149.8 km
8-9 firms declared interest -
no data
Mazowieckie,
Lubelskie
E75 Sadowne-Czyżew
35.5 km
-
no data
Mazowieckie
line 201 Nowa Wieś Wielka-Maksymilianowo
31.6 km
20 bids (PLN 41.6-65.1 mln) -
no data
Kujawsko-Pomorskie
line 18 Aleksandrów Kujawski-Włocławek
31.7 km
18 bids (PLN 62.7-105.7 mln)-
no data
Kujawsko-Pomorskie
lines 821 i 822 - Rzepin bypass
9.3 km
18 bids (PLN 29.3-42 mln) -
2017
Lubuskie
line 274 Wrocław-Smolec
ca. 10 km
12 bids (PLN 20.8-27.3 mln) -
no data
Dolnośląskie
lines 694, 157, 190 i 191 Bronów-Cieszyn/Wisła
49.4 km
tender underway
-
no data
Śląskie
line 68 Lublin-Stalowa Wola
105 km
-
no data
Lubelskie
Central Rail Line - modernisation
of Olszamowice and Włoszczowa
Płn. Stations
-
tender underway
1/07/2016
2017
Świętokrzyskie
line 353 Ostrowite-Jamielnik
19.4 km
tender underway
25/07/2016
no data
line 353 Jamielnik-Olsztyn
80 km
tender underway
1/08/2016
no data
11
ROADS: TENDERS TO BE ANNOUNCED
length
contractor
worth
opening date
voivodeship
Warsaw Eastern Ring Road
(Drewnica-Zakręt)
3.6 km
no bids
unknown
unknown
Mazowieckie
S61 Ostrów Mazowiecka-Budzisko
191.5 km
no bids
PLN 7.2 bln
unknown
Mazowieckie,
Podlaskie,
RAIL LINES: TENDERS TO BE ANNOUNCED
length
contractor
worth
opening date
voivodeship
line 104 Chabówka–Nowy Sącz
76 km
no bids
no data
no data
Małopolskie
line E59 Piła-Szczecin Dąbie
197 km
no bids
ca. PLN 2 bln
2017
Wielkopolskie,
Zachodniopomorskie
Rail Baltica Białystok-Sadowne
104 km
no bids
PLN 1 bln
no data
Mazowieckie,
Podlaskie,
line 221 Gutkowo-Braniewo
87.5 km
no bids
no data
2017
line 207 Gardeja-Malbork
56 km
no bids
PLN 270 mln
no data
Pomorskie
Podłęże-Piekiełko connector
58.5 km
no bids
PLN 7.1 bln
no data
Małopolskie
Dominik Sipiński
Business Analyst
(+48) 22 436 71 65
d.sipinski@politykainsight.pl
12
Knowledge tailored
to your needs
Polityka Insight offers on-order analytical
services. Our experts will examine the topic
of your interest and answer your questions.
See more at: www.politykainsight.pl/en-research
EXECUTIVE
BRIEFINGS
Our analysts brief management
boards on political developments, economic outlook and
regulatory environment. We
offer standard and tailored presentations, always followed by
Q&A sessions with our experts.
ANALYSES
AND REPORTS
We conduct quantitative and
qualitative research, focused on
its applicability for our clients.
We offer custom-made in-depth
reports and handy briefs, both
for internal use and public
presentation.
EXPERT
MEETINGS
Together with our partners,
we organise knowledge-driven
roundtables and breakfast
sessions on the topic of your
choice, featuring high profile
speakers from both Poland
and abroad.
M A C R O E C O N O M I C S • L E G I S L AT I O N • B U S I N E S S • E N E R G Y • E X P O R T

Infrastructure Report

Transcription

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