STUDY ON NEW URBAN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM PROJECT

Transcription

STUDY ON PRIVATE-INITIATIVE INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS
IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN FY2011
STUDY ON NEW URBAN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
PROJECT IN CIKARANG, REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA
FINAL REPORT
February 2012
Prepared for:
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
Prepared by:
TOSTEMS, INC.
MITSUBISHI HEAVY INDUSTRIES, LTD.
JAPAN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING ASSOCIATION
Reproduction Prohibited
PREFACE
This report shows the result of “Study on Private-Initiative Infrastructure Projects in Developing
Countries in FY2011” contract received by the group composed of TOSTEMS, INC., MITSUBISHI
HEAVY INDUSTRIES, LTD. and JAPAN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING ASSOCIATION.
This study “The Study on New Urban Transportation System Project in Cikarang” was carried out to
install the APM system in the Cikarang district which is located in about 30 km east of Jakarta. It
was also carried out in order to assess to feasibility of the project to install the Japanese APM system
with project cost of 879 million US$ (70 billion Yen) for the purpose of the reduction of road
congestion associated with the development of industrial parks and complex city, the improvement
of urban functions and the invitation of companies.
We, all members of the study team, hope this study will contribute for putting the plan into practice,
and will appreciate if the result will become good help for the relevant government officials to
understand and to drive forward the project.
February 2012
TOSTEMS, INC.
MITSUBISHI HEAVY INDUSTRIES, LTD.
JAPAN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING ASSOCIATION
Location Map
Indonesia
BekasiRegency
regency
Bekasi
Project Site
Java Main Line
Jababeka
Industrial Park
Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road
MM2100
Industrial Town
Bekasi Fajar
Industrial Estate
Lippo Cikarang
Industrial Estate
EJIP
Deltamas City
Legend
N
：Proposed Route
：Future Extension
：Station
0
1
2
km
Source: Study Team
On-Site Photos
1. MM2100 Industrial Town (entrance)
2. Jababeka Industrial Park (entrance)
3. Hospital
4. Green belt of route planned site
(in Lippo Cikarang Industrial Estate)
(in Jababeka Industrial Park)
5. Depot planned site (undeveloped area in
6. Current condition of road congestion
Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate)
(around Bekasi complex city)
On-Site Photos
7. Commuter bus to industrial estate
8. Commuters (in Jababeka Industrial Park)
9. Motorbikes parked at opening space
10. Angkot (mikrolet): share-ride bus
(in MM2100 Industrial Town)
11. Java Main Line
12. Cikarang Station (Java Main Line)
On-Site Photos
13. Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road
14. Overpass across the Jakarta-Cikampek Toll
Road
15. Meeting with governor of Bekasi prefecture
16. Meeting with JICA Indonesia office
Source: Study Team
List of Abbreviations
Abbreviation
Full Name
ADB
AFC
AMDAL
Asian Development Bank
Automatic Fare Collection
Analisis Mengenai Dampak Lingkungan (Indonesian)
APM
ATO
ATP
ATS
B/C
B/C Ratio
B/L
BAPPEDA
BAPEDAL
BAPPENAS
BPS
BRT
CBTC
CCF
CCTV
CDM
CIF
CO2
E&M
E/S
EIA
EIRR
EIS
EMP
ENPV
EOI
EPA
EPC
FIRR
FOCC
FS
GDP
IDB
IDR
IIGF
IMF
IT
JBIC
Automated People Mover
Automatic Train Operation
Automatic Train Protection
Automatic Train Supervision
Buyer’s Credit
Benefit and Cost Ratio
Bank Loan
Badan Perencana Pembangunan Daerah (Indonesian)
Badan Pengendalian Dampak Lingkungan (Indonesian)
Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional (Indonesian)
Badan Pusat Statistik (Indonesian)
Bus Rapid Transit
Communication Based Train Control
Central Control Facility
Closed-circuit Television
Clean Development Mechanism
Cost, Insurance and Freight
Carbon Dioxide
Electrical and Mechanical
Engineering Service
Environmental Impact Assessment
Economic Internal Rate of Return
Environment Information System
Environmental Management Program
Economic Net Present Value
Expression of Interest
Economic Partnership Agreement
Engineering Procurement Construction
Financial Internal Rate of Return
Financial Opportunity Cost of Capital
Feasibility Study
Gross Domestic Product
Islamic Development Bank
Indonesia Rupiah
Indonesia Infrastructure Guarantee Fund
International Monetary Fund
Information Technology
Japan Bank for International Cooperation
Abbreviation
JETRO
JI
JICA
JPY
LRT
METI
MLIT
MOF
MPA
NPV
O&M
OCC
OD
ODA
OECD
OJT
OOF
PC
PDS
PIL
PLN
PM
PMU
PP
PPHPD
PPP
P3CU
RC
RDTR
S/W
SCF
SDR
SITRAMP
SPC
SS
STEP
TOR
TTC
UPS
USD
Full Name
Japan External Trade Organization
Joint Implementation
Japan International Cooperation Agency
Japanese Yen
Light Rail Transit
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism
Metering Out Fit
Metropolitan Priority Area for Investment and Industry
Net Present Value
Operation and Maintenance
Operations Control Center
Origin-Destination
Official Development Assistance
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
On-the-job Training
Other Official Finance
Prefabricated Concrete
Power Delivery System
Preliminary Environmental Information Report
Perusahaan Listrik Negara
Project Manager
Project Management Unit
Power Plant
Passengers per hour per direction
Public Private Partnership
Public Private Partnership Central Unit
Reinforced Concrete
Rencana Detail Tata Ruang (Indonesian)
Scope of Work
Standard Conversion Factor
Social Discount Rate
The Study on Integrated Transportation Master Plan for
JABODETABEK
Special Purpose Company
Substation
Special Terms for Economic Partnership
Terms of Reference
Travel Time Cost
Uninterruptible Power Supply
United States Dollar
Abbreviation
VAT
VFM
VGF
VOC
WACC
Full Name
Value Added Tax
Value For Money
Viability Gap Fund
Vehicle Operating Cost
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Chapter 1 Overview of the Host Country and Sector
1.1 Economic/Financial Circumstances of the Host Country .....................................................1-1
1.1.1 Social Circumstances .....................................................................................................1-1
1.1.2 Economic Circumstances...............................................................................................1-1
1.1.3 Financial Circumstances ................................................................................................1-3
1.2 Overview of Project Sector in the Host Country ..................................................................1-4
1.2.1 Public Transportation in the Project Area......................................................................1-4
1.2.2 Outline of Converting National Railway to Commuter Line .........................................1-5
1.2.3 Road Plans .....................................................................................................................1-5
1.3 Present Conditions of Project Area .......................................................................................1-7
1.3.1 Administrative Divisions around the Project Area ........................................................1-7
1.3.2 Night-time Population around the Project Area.............................................................1-8
Chapter 2 Study Methodology
2.1 Study Content .......................................................................................................................2-1
2.1.1 Study Background .........................................................................................................2-1
2.1.2 Study Objective .............................................................................................................2-1
2.1.3 Study Outline .................................................................................................................2-1
2.2
Study Methodology and Organization ..................................................................................2-3
2.2.1 Overview .......................................................................................................................2-3
2.2.2 Study Methodology .......................................................................................................2-3
2.2.3 Study Organization ........................................................................................................2-4
2.3 Study Schedule .....................................................................................................................2-5
2.3.1 Overall Study Schedule .................................................................................................2-5
2.3.2 Study Periods .................................................................................................................2-6
Chapter 3 Justification, Objectives and Technical Feasibility of the Project
3.1 Background, Necessity, Etc. for Project ...............................................................................3-1
3.1.1 Background of Project and Positioning .........................................................................3-1
3.1.2 Necessity for APM System Introduction .......................................................................3-2
3.2
Various Examinations Required for Determination of Project Details, Etc..........................3-4
3.2.1 Route Plan......................................................................................................................3-4
3.2.2 Demand Forecast .........................................................................................................3-11
3.2.3 System Selection..........................................................................................................3-24
3.3
Project Plan Overview ........................................................................................................3-29
3.3.1 Basic Policy about Determination of Project Contents ................................................3-29
3.3.2 Concept Design............................................................................................................3-30
Chapter 4 Evaluation of Environmental and Social Impacts
4.1 Analysis on Present Environmental and Social Status..........................................................4-1
4.1.1 Business Characteristics ................................................................................................4-1
4.1.2 Present Status of the Project Area..................................................................................4-1
4.1.3 Natural Environment .....................................................................................................4-1
4.1.4 Social Environment .......................................................................................................4-2
4.1.5 Future Forecast (case without implementation of this project)......................................4-2
4.2 Environmental Improvement Effect by the Project ..............................................................4-4
4.2.1 Method of Review .........................................................................................................4-4
4.2.2 Traffic Volume Shifted from Vehicles to the APM System ..........................................4-4
4.2.3 CO2 Reduction ...............................................................................................................4-4
4.2.4 Possibility to Apply CDM .............................................................................................4-5
4.3 Environmental Impact by the Project Implementation .........................................................4-7
4.3.1 Identification of Environmental and Social Impact .......................................................4-7
4.3.2 Land Acquisition and Involuntary Resettlement .........................................................4-16
4.3.3 Comparison with Alternative Route ............................................................................4-18
4.3.4 Local Information related to the Environment.............................................................4-19
4.4 Summary of Environmental/Social Legislation in the host country ...................................4-20
4.4.1 Main Legislation relating to Environmental/Social Considerations ............................4-20
4.4.2 Procedures for Land Acquisition and Resettlement.....................................................4-21
4.4.3 Environmental Impact Assessment System .................................................................4-22
4.5 Matters Conducted by Host Country for Project Realization .............................................4-24
Chapter 5 Financial and Economic Evaluation
5.1 Estimation of Project Cost ....................................................................................................5-1
5.1.1 Overview of Project Cost...............................................................................................5-1
5.1.2 Construction Costs .........................................................................................................5-2
5.1.3 Construction Cost Details ..............................................................................................5-3
5.1.4 Operation and Maintenance Cost ...................................................................................5-5
5.2
Preliminary Economic and Financial Analyses ....................................................................5-7
5.2.1 Preliminary Economic Analysis ....................................................................................5-7
5.2.2 Preliminary Financial Analysis ....................................................................................5-12
Chapter 6 Planned Project Schedule
6.1 Overview...............................................................................................................................6-1
6.2
Implementation Schedule Details .........................................................................................6-3
6.2.1 Preparation Stage ...........................................................................................................6-3
6.2.2 Construction Stage .........................................................................................................6-4
6.2.3 Operation Commencement Preparation Stage ...............................................................6-5
6.2.4 Operation Commencement Stage ..................................................................................6-5
Chapter 7 Implementing Organization
7.1 Project Scheme for Project Implementation .........................................................................7-1
7.2
Project Competency of Implementation Organization ..........................................................7-2
7.3
Roles and Risk Assignment of Government and Private sector............................................7-3
Chapter 8 Technical Advantages of Japanese Companies
8.1 Assumed Participation Form of Companies of Our Country (Equity participation, materials
and equipment supply, management of institutions, etc.) .....................................................8-1
8.2
Advantages of Companies of Our Country for Project Implementation Concerned
(Technological side, the financial side) ................................................................................8-2
8.2.1 Introductory Performances of APM System ..................................................................8-2
8.2.2 Advantages of Japanese Companies ..............................................................................8-3
8.3 Necessary Measures in order to Promote Japanese Companies............................................8-4
Chapter 9 Financial Outlook
9.1 Examination of Financial Source and Implementation Scheme ...........................................9-1
9.1.1 Implementation Scheme ................................................................................................9-1
9.1.2 Typical PPP Financing Structure ...................................................................................9-3
9.1.3 Scheme-A: Affermage ...................................................................................................9-3
9.1.4 Scheme-C: Concession ..................................................................................................9-6
9.1.5 Scheme-B: Concessions (with minimum private share of investment cost) ..................9-7
9.2
Public and Private Financing ................................................................................................9-9
9.2.1 Public Financing in Japan ..............................................................................................9-9
9.2.2 Other Financial Sources .................................................................................................9-9
9.2.3 General Financing Sources ..........................................................................................9-10
9.3
Cashflow Analyses .............................................................................................................9-11
9.3.1 Preliminary Financial Analysis for PPP Schemes .......................................................9-11
Chapter 10 Action Plan and Issues
10.1 Approaches towards Realization of the Project ................................................................10-1
10.1.1 The Project Explanation and Cooperation Request to Concerned Organizations ......10-1
10.1.2 Study Group Considerations ......................................................................................10-1
10.2 Approaches of Indonesian Government and Concerned
Organizations towards Realization of the Project .............................................................10-2
10.2.1 National Development Planning Agency (BAPPENAS) ..........................................10-2
10.2.2
Directorate General of Railways, Ministry of Transportation ...................................10-2
10.2.3 Bekasi Regency .........................................................................................................10-2
10.3 Existence of Legal, Financial Constraints, Etc. of Indonesia ............................................10-3
10.4 Necessity of Additional Detail Analysis ...........................................................................10-4
List of Figures
Figure 1-1 Real GDP Growth Rate .............................................................................................1-1
Figure 1-2 Public Transportations in the Project Area ...............................................................1-4
Figure 1-3 Road Plans around Study Area .................................................................................1-6
Figure 1-4 Administrative Divisions of Bekasi Regency ...........................................................1-7
Figure 2-1 Study Team ...............................................................................................................2-4
Figure 2-2
Overall Study Schedule .............................................................................................2-5
Figure 3-1 Proposed Routes ........................................................................................................3-6
Figure 3-2 Proposed Route 1 ......................................................................................................3-9
Figure 3-3 Target Area for Demand Forecast ...........................................................................3-11
Figure 3-4 Java Main Line ........................................................................................................3-12
Figure 3-5 Survey Route of Travel Speed Survey ....................................................................3-15
Figure 3-6 Traffic Fluctuation by Time for Weekday ..............................................................3-16
Figure 3-7 Regional and Transport Network Structure Concerning Target Area .....................3-17
Figure 3-8 General Flowchart for Demand Forecast ................................................................3-18
Figure 3-9 Image of Trip Diversion ..........................................................................................3-19
Figure 3-10 Relationship between Zone and Influential Corridor of Target System ................3-23
Figure 3-11
Proposal Concept ..................................................................................................3-24
Figure 3-12 Schedule Speed and Transport Capacity ...............................................................3-26
Figure 3-13 Structure Gauge and Vehicle Gauge .....................................................................3-32
Figure 3-14 Horizontal Alignment............................................................................................3-33
Figure 3-15 Vertical Alignment ................................................................................................3-34
Figure 3-16
Cross Section of Supports Constructed on Greenbelt ...........................................3-35
Figure 3-17 Station Location ....................................................................................................3-39
Figure 3-18 Track Layout Sketch .............................................................................................3-41
Figure 3-19 Connection with Cikarang Station of Java Main Line(Cross-Section View) ........3-42
Figure 3-20 Connection with Cikarang Station of Java Main Line(Plan View) .......................3-42
Figure 3-21
Typical Station (Plan View) ..................................................................................3-43
Figure 3-22
Typical Station (Side View) ..................................................................................3-43
Figure 3-23
Typical Station (Cross-Section View)...................................................................3-43
Figure 3-24
Position of Substation and Power Plants in the Area around APM System ..........3-45
Figure 3-25
Power System Diagram of Cikarang APM System...............................................3-46
Figure 3-26
Vehicle Overview..................................................................................................3-52
Figure 3-27 Depot Location ......................................................................................................3-53
Figure 3-28 Depot Layout.........................................................................................................3-54
Figure 3-29 Vehicle Stabling Plan ............................................................................................3-55
Figure 3-30 Proposed Organization ..........................................................................................3-57
Figure 4-1 Locations Requiring Land Acquisition ...................................................................4-17
Figure 4-2 Land Acquisition and Resettlement Procedures ......................................................4-22
Figure 4-3 EIA Procedures .......................................................................................................4-23
Figure 7-1 Project Scheme (Scheme-A: Affermage) ..................................................................7-1
Figure 8-1 General Configuration of PPP Project ......................................................................8-1
Figure 9-1 Fund Procurement in PPP Schemes ..........................................................................9-1
Figure 9-2 Typical PPP Financing Structure ..............................................................................9-3
Figure 9-3 Scheme-A : Affermage .............................................................................................9-4
Figure 9-4 Scheme-C: Concession..............................................................................................9-6
Figure 9-5 Scheme- B: Concessions (with minimum private share of investment cost) ............9-7
List of Tables
Table 1-1 Indonesia Basic Information.......................................................................................1-1
Table 1-2 Basic Economic Indicators .........................................................................................1-2
Table 1-3 Supply Limits and Supply Conditions ........................................................................1-3
Table 1-4 Bekasi Regency Population (2005~2009) ..................................................................1-8
Table 2-1 Domestic Work Periods ..............................................................................................2-6
Table 2-2 Field Survey Periods ..................................................................................................2-6
Table 2-3 Work Activity .............................................................................................................2-7
Table 3-1 Number of Companies in the Industrial Park of the Target Region ...........................3-3
Table 3-2 Background of the Proposal Related to the Examination of the Route ......................3-4
Table 3-3 Proposed Route Overview ..........................................................................................3-7
Table 3-4 Assumption on Development Area Size in Target Area...........................................3-13
Table 3-5 Distribution of Average Commuting Time in Metropolitan Area ............................3-13
Table 3-6 Modal Characteristics of Commuters .......................................................................3-14
Table 3-7 Result of Travel Speed Survey in Cikarang .............................................................3-14
Table 3-8 Establishment of Zoning...........................................................................................3-18
Table 3-9 Population by Zone ..................................................................................................3-20
Table 3-10 Number of Employees by Zone ..............................................................................3-20
Table 3-11 Unit trip by Transport Mode per Inhabitant ...........................................................3-21
Table 3-12 Present Trip Distribution Generated in Cikarang District ......................................3-21
Table 3-13 Assumption of Trip Diversion Rate by Trip Origin & Destination ........................3-22
Table 3-14 Daily Ridership.......................................................................................................3-22
Table 3-15 Maximum Sectional Volume in Peak Hour ............................................................3-23
Table 3-16 Main Medium Capacity Transport System Characteristics ....................................3-25
Table 3-17 Evaluation of System Suitability for Proposed Route ............................................3-28
Table 3-18 Demand Forecast Results .......................................................................................3-30
Table 3-19 Transport Capacity per Train ..................................................................................3-30
Table 3-20 Transport Capacity (PPHPD) .................................................................................3-30
Table 3-21 Headway and Required number of vehicles ...........................................................3-31
Table 3-22 Main Construction Standards for the APM System................................................3-32
Table 3-23
Station Plan Basic Policy........................................................................................3-37
Table 3-24 Platform Type Comparison ....................................................................................3-38
Table 3-25 Station Structures and Facilities .............................................................................3-38
Table 3-26
Station Location .....................................................................................................3-40
Table 3-27 Bill of Quantity .......................................................................................................3-44
Table 3-28 Surrounding Substation Capacity ...........................................................................3-45
Table 3-29 Key Parameters.......................................................................................................3-51
Table 3-30 Typical Main Tool and Equipment .........................................................................3-56
Table 3-31 Required Number of Staff ......................................................................................3-57
Table 4-1 Population and Population Density by District ..........................................................4-2
Table 4-2 Converted and Reduced Volume of Bus traffic ..........................................................4-4
Table 4-3 CO2 Reduction Volume of the Bus.............................................................................4-5
Table 4-4 CO2 Reduction Volume of the AGT system ..............................................................4-5
Table 4-5 Check List of JICA Guideline for Environmental Study............................................4-8
Table 4-6 Comparison of Alternative Route .............................................................................4-18
Table 4-7 Legislation for Environmental Pollution Control relating to this Project .................4-20
Table 4-8 Comparison between JETRO Guidelines for Environmental and Social
Considerations and environmental laws in Indonesia ..............................................4-21
Table 4-9 Matters to be undertaken by Government of Indonesia ............................................4-24
Table 5-1 Construction Cost .......................................................................................................5-2
Table 5-2 Salaries of each employee ..........................................................................................5-5
Table 5-3 Basic Unit of Each Expense Item ...............................................................................5-5
Table 5-4 Annual Operation and Maintenance Cost ...................................................................5-6
Table 5-5 Life Cycle of Facilities ...............................................................................................5-7
Table 5-6 Construction Costs of "With Project" (in economic price) .........................................5-8
Table 5-7 Estimation of VOC .....................................................................................................5-9
Table 5-8 Results of Economic Evaluation Indexes ...................................................................5-9
Table 5-9 Results of Sensitivity Analysis .................................................................................5-10
Table 5-10
Economic Cashflow................................................................................................5-11
Table 5-11
Assumption of Passenger Fare ...............................................................................5-12
Table 5-12 Investment Cost (in financial price) .......................................................................5-13
Table 5-13 Annual Demand, Revenue and Expenditure ...........................................................5-13
Table 5-14 Results of Financial Analysis .................................................................................5-14
Table 5-15 Results of Sensitivity Analysis ...............................................................................5-14
Table 5-16 Financial Cashflow .................................................................................................5-15
Table 6-1 Implementation Schedule ...........................................................................................6-2
Table 7-1 Important Matters towards Project Implementation ...................................................7-2
Table 7-2 Roles of Public and Private Sector .............................................................................7-3
Table 7-3 Types of Risks ............................................................................................................7-4
Table 8-1 Assumed Participation of Japanese Companies .........................................................8-1
Table 8-2 APM System Introduction Performances in Japan .....................................................8-2
Table 8-3 APM Vehicles Export Performance for Overseas ......................................................8-2
Table 9-1 Project Commercial Viability and Funding Sources ..................................................9-1
Table 9-2 Candidates for Implementation Scheme .....................................................................9-2
Table 9-3 Public Financing in Japan Expected to be Applied to the Project ..............................9-9
Table9-4 Financing Sources and Terms ...................................................................................9-10
Table 9-5 Schemes and Evaluation Viewpoint .........................................................................9-11
Table 9-6 Investment Cost of Private Sector (Scheme-A) ........................................................9-12
Table 9-7 Annual Demand and Revenue (Scheme-A to C) ......................................................9-12
Table 9-8 Annual Expenditure (Scheme-A to C)......................................................................9-12
Table 9-9 Results of Financial Analysis (Scheme-A) ...............................................................9-13
Table 9-10
Investment Cost of Private Sector (Scheme-B) ......................................................9-13
Table 9-11
Results of Financial Analysis (Scheme-B) .............................................................9-14
Table 9-12
Investment Cost of Private Sector (Scheme-C) ......................................................9-14
Table 9-13
Results of Financial Analysis (Scheme-C) .............................................................9-14
Table 9-14 Summary of Financial Analysis (Scheme-A to C) .................................................9-15
Table 9-15 Financial Cashflow of Scheme-A ...........................................................................9-16
Table 9-16 Financial Cashflow of Scheme-B ...........................................................................9-17
Table 9-17 Financial Cashflow of Scheme-C ...........................................................................9-18
List of Photos
Photo 3-1 Current Conditions of Proposed Route ....................................................................3-10
Photo 3-2 External Appearance of Vehicles for Each System ..................................................3-25
Photo 3-3 Switches Overview (Sample) ...................................................................................3-36
Photo 3-4 Station Facilities .......................................................................................................3-41
Photo 3-5
Power Rail (Sample) ................................................................................................3-47
Photo 3-6
Central Control Facility (Sample) ............................................................................3-48
Photo 3-7 APM Vehicle (Sample) ............................................................................................3-50
Executive Summary
(1) Background and Necessity of the Project
1) Background of the Project
The Cikarang district which is the region for this project is located in about 30 km east of Jakarta,
and about 570,000 people live in the area of 248 km2 as of 2009, and it is expected that population
continues to increase rapidly. The Cikarang district is divided into the partition of the Jababeka
industrial park, the MM2100 industrial town, the Lippo Cikarang industrial estate, the East Jakarta
industrial park (hereafter referred to as EJIP), Deltamas City, etc., and is developed as a large-scale
industrial park and a complex city, and development is still underway. As of October 2010, 310
Japanese companies move into these areas.
The Java Main Line runs to the north side in the area, and Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road is running in
the center of the area from east and west. Although the traffic in the area depends on the road traffic
of cars, buses, minibuses, and motorbikes, chronic traffic congestion has occurred in everywhere in
the area by the shortage of road capacity, and heavy road traffic. Especially there are few roads
which cross Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road, and almost all existing roads are narrow where the
north-south area was divided.
The railway electrification and double-double tracking of Java Main Line project are to be promoted
as Japanese ODA loan project in the near future. It is considered that the economic activity of the
area concerned becomes increasingly active with increase in Cikarang station users.
This project uses the Cikarang station as a terminal, introduces APM system as feeder line traffic to
the Jababeka industrial park and MM2100 industrial town, etc., and aims at strengthening the
north-south traffic axis. Thereby, confusion dissolution of the road traffic of the area concerned,
preservation of the urban environment by relief of air pollution, improvement in the convenience of
the commuter to the industrial park concerned, etc. are expected. Furthermore, it is considered that
introduction of the APM system to the area where many Japanese companies have moved in as
mentioned above has the high benefit effect to Japanese-owned companies together with area
development and revitalization of the economy.
2) Necessity of the Project
Necessities of the project are as follows.
- Relief of road traffic congestion
- Securing convenience and safety of industrial estate commuter
- Introduction of the APM system united with future development planning
- Benefit effects to Japanese-owned companies
(2) Basic Policy for Determination of Project Contents
To determine the contents of the project, the study is conducted with following basic policies
- Proposal of the plan to minimize the land acquisition and involuntary resettlement
- Offer of high mobility services
- Proposal of system of enhanced convenience
- Proposal of the system considering economic efficiency
- Examination of appropriate PPP scheme
i
(3) Project Overview
1) Demand Forecast
a) Pre conditions of demand forecast
Regional transport condition
As a pre condition of the project, it is assumed that “The Railway Electrification and Double-Double
Tracking of Java Main Line Project“, which was proposed in SITRAMP study 2004 by JICA, is to
be completed.
Related development projects
In target area, the comprehensive urban development projects, i.e. industrial estate and housing
estate, are currently undertaken by several developers. These development plans are considered as a
pre condition of demand forecast.
b)
Results of demand forecast
Objective
year
2019
2030
2048
2)
Table-1 Demand Forecast Result
Number of daily
Maximum peak hour
passengers
transport volume
49,000 passengers/d
4,900 PPHPD
69,000 passengers/d
6,900 PPHPD
88,000 passengers/d
8,800 PPHPD
Source: Study Team
Outline of the Project
Installation System
Route Length
Operation Plan
Structure
Number of Station
Platform Type
Depot
Table-2 Outline of the Project
APM System
12 km
Year 2019-2037
: 2-car formation
Year 2038: 4-car formation
Elevated (whole line)
13 stations
Cikarang St.: Dead end platform
Others: Island platform
7.2 ha
Source: Study Team
3) Project Costs Overview
The project costs of this project at 2011 are shown in Table-3.
Table-3 Project Costs
Initial Construction Cost
879 million US$
Additional Construction Cost (2024)
31 million US$
Additional Construction Cost (2037)
85 million US$
Source: Study Team
4) Preliminary Economic and Financial Analysis
a) Economic analysis
A comparative analysis of the costs and benefits both in the case of executing the project ("With
project") and not executing the project ("Without project") is carried out from the viewpoint of the
national economy. Costs of "With project" consist of investment costs (including additional
ii
investment costs) and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. The quantified benefits of Vehicle
Operating Cost (VOC) savings and Transport Time Cost (TTC) savings are estimated in the analysis.
The results of preliminary economic analysis are summarized in Table-4.
Table-4 Results of Economic Analysis
(Social discount rate = 12.0%)
Economic Internal Rate
Benefit and Cost Ratio
Economic Net Present Value
of Return (EIRR)
(B/C Ratio)
(ENPV)
13.2 %
1.1
5,050 million Yen
Source: Study Team
As all the evaluation values are found to be favorable, and this project is considered to be
economically viable.
b) Financial analysis
Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) on Project (Project FIRR) from the viewpoint of efficiency
of investment is estimated as evaluation index. The Project FIRR is evaluated in comparison to the
Financial Opportunity Cost of Capital (FOCC). In the analysis, the Weighted Average Cost of
Capital (WACC) serves as a proxy for the FOCC combined with the financial sources. Table-5
shows the results of financial analysis. As a result, the Project FIRR is found to be 1.3% and is
considered financially viable compared with 1.1% of WACC.
Table-5 Results of Financial Analysis
Financial Internal Rate
Weighted Average Cost
Financial Net Present Value
of Return (FIRR)
of Capital (WACC)
(FNPV)
1.3 %
1.1 %
2,820 million Yen
Source: Study Team
5) Evaluation of Environmental and Social Impacts
a) Characteristics of the project
With this APM system, noise and vibration levels and exhaust gas emissions are low. This system is
an environmentally friendly public transportation system since its impact on the environment is
small, compared with that of vehicles.
In particular, the following advantages can be achieved by the introduction of this APM system.
- Improvement of convenience for visitors/commuters to the introduced area
- Savings in commuting time and a reduction in traffic delays
- Reduction of greenhouse gases with the replacement of buses, cars, motorcycles with the APM
system
- Regional economic revitalization
- Relief of road congestion and a reduction of traffic accidents
- Direct and indirect job creation
b) Identification of environmental and social impact
In items which are supposed to affect environmental and social aspects by this project, matters
requiring special consideration, requiring explanation to obtain understanding by residents and
requiring coordination with related institutions are shown as follows.
i) Involuntary resettlement
At the access to Cikarang station, the entrance to the Jababeka industrial park and at part of northern
area along the Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road, involuntary resettlement of existing residences is not
iii
avoidable. It is estimated that involuntary resettlement and land acquisition of approximate 30
existing residences/approximate 11,200m2 and approximate 56,000m2 of undeveloped area north of
Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road and Bekasi Fajar industrial estate.
ii) Radio disturbance related to livelihood
The APM system is a wholly elevated line therefore Radio Disturbance caused by an elevated
structure is also considerable. It is necessary to consider some countermeasures, including instalment
of a common antenna in the harmed areas, at the detailed design stage.
iii) Impact during construction
In this project, environmental pollution such as noise/vibration occurrence by piling works and
exhaust gas from heavy equipment is considerable. It is necessary to consider mitigation measures at
the construction planning stage. In addition, restriction of existing roads will possibly cause traffic
congestion because the APM system will be installed in the space currently occupied by roads.
iv) Tree cutting and transplanting
Some sections of road in industrial estates, proposed as part of the route of the APM system, have
trees in the median dividers which are to be used as the installation space. Such trees shall be cut or
transplanted. They can be transplanted under elevated sections or other places as a mitigation
measure after construction of elevated structures. It is required to consider how to secure green areas
for the project as a whole.
(4)
Implementation Schedule
Figure-1 shows the implementation schedule.
Figure-1 Implementation Schedule
2012 2013 2014 2015
Project finding
1.Praparation Stage
(1)Selection of consultant
(2)Feasibility study /
Resettlement action plan
(3)EIA study and disclosure by Govt.
(4)Award of APM by Govt.
(5)Process for loan agreement
(6)Detailed planning / Bid preparation
(7)Land acquisition, resettlement and
relocation of utilities
2.Construction Stage
(1)Mobilization
(2)Detailed design
(3)Construction
(4)Running test & commissioning
3.Operation Preparation Stage
(1)Tender process for selection of
management
(2)Recruitment and preparation of
organization
(3)Regulation making / Education and
training
4.Revenue Service Stage
Source: Study Team
iv
2016
2017
2018
2019
(5) Feasibility for Implementation
1) Implementation Scheme
For the implementation of this project, there are fully public project where public funds from the
public sector and a method where the private sector participates through a Public Private Partnership
(PPP) approach. Table-6 shows candidates for implementation schemes of proposed project.
Table-6
Candidates for Implementation Scheme
Construction/Operation Division of Roles
Scheme
Public Project
PPP with
Government
Support
Public Sector
Implemented by
government as fully
public project.
Construction of civil
works and
A)
procurement of
E&M/rolling stock
works and
B)
part of procurement of
E&M/rolling stock
C) works
None
Regular PPP
D)
Private Sector
None
Construction
O&M
E&M/
Organization
Civil works
rolling stock
Public
Public funds Public funds
managed
organization
O&M
Public funds
Public funds
Part of procurement
of E&M/rolling
Public Private
Public funds
stock
funds funds
and O&M
Procurement of
E&M/rolling stock Public funds Private funds
and O&M
works,
procurement of
Private funds Private funds
E&M/rolling stock
and O&M
SPC
SPC
SPC
SPC
Source: Study Team
2)
Financial Sources
The public financing types that can be expected to be applied to this project are yen loan, untied loan
and project finance. Overviews are shown in Table-7.
v
Table-7
ODA
OOF
Type
Yen
Loan
Untied
Loan
Project
Finance
Public Financing in Japan expected to be applied to this Project
Overview
Aimed at economical development support and
financial support between governments.
When public funds and private funds are invested as
a PPP infrastructure project which provides ODA
financing, there is a traditional format where the
investment areas are classified and delineated
(discrete type) and a format where private sector and
public funds are invested and coexist in same area
(integrated type).
Loans made to foreign governments etc. where
overseas projects carried out in the country and
facilities funding loans in the form of untied loans
which do not limit suppliers. The purpose of the loan
will be business environmental considerations
consisting of support of the activities of Japanese
companies. However, the loan conditions are tight
than for ODA.
Project finance is the loan for project implementation
based on the project assets and various rights on
contracts. Repayments are from only cash flow
created by the project (income), and there is no
government, etc. payment guarantee for repayment.
This is different from corporate financing based on
the former borrower finances, details and credit
capability, and in principal there is no payment
guarantee for parent companies, etc.
Source: Study team
Notes
Public funds of public
project
Public funds of Scheme-A
Public funds of Scheme-B
(discrete type)
Public funds of Scheme-C
(integrated type)
project
Public funds of Scheme-A,
B and C
Private funds for
Scheme-A, B and C
3) Financial Analysis for PPP Schemes
Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) on Equity (Equity FIRR) from the viewpoint of SPC is
estimated as evaluation index according to the schemes implementing the project with private sector.
For the Equity FIRR, government bonds (10 year) of 6.2% as Indonesian long-term interest rate is
adopted for benchmark. Table-8 shows the summary of preliminary financial analysis of each
scheme. In the Schemes-A to C, proposed system will manage efficiently by private sector with
previous experiences. In Scheme-A: Affermage, private sector will participate only O&M field.
From the result of analysis, this scheme evaluated appropriate approach for the private sector that
satisfies the target level of Equity FIRR and possible to pay usage fee for the government. Although
for public sector, it is the task to fund raise long-term and low-interest rate financing such as
Japanese ODA loan.
vi
Table-8
Results of Financial Analysis (Scheme-A to C)
A) Affermage (private B) Concession (with
C) Consession
sector conduct only
minimum private
O&M)
share)
Outline
Public: construction of Public: construction of Public: construction of
civil works and
civil works and
civil works
procurement of E&M/ part of procurement of
rolling stock
E&M/rolling stock
Private: O&M by SPC Private: part of
Private: procurement
procurement of
of E&M/rolling stock
E&M/rolling stock
and O&M by SPC
and O&M by SPC
Share of Civil Construction Public 100%
Public 100%
Public 100%
Private
0%
Private
0%
Private
0%
Share of E&M/
Public 100%
Public 70%
Public
0%
Rolling Stock Procurement Private
0%
Private 30%
Private 100%
O&M
by SPC
Asset of SPC
none
Part of E&M/rolling
E&M/rolling stock
stock
Financial Form of SPC
Equity: 30%, Debt: 70%
Revenue of SPC
Fare and non-fare revenue
Expenditure of SPC
O&M cost and usage fee (10% of total revenue)
Target of Equity FIRR
6.2% of Indonesian long-term interest rate (10 years government bonds)
Equity FIRR (2023)
13.6%
negative
negative
Equity FIRR (2033)
38.7%
5.4%
negative
Scheme
Source: Study Team
(6) Technical Advantages of Japanese Companies
As APM-system-related technologies, APM vehicles, track for exclusive use, signalling system,
communication equipment, power equipment, railway station facilities, train operation control
system, maintenance facilities, and engineering-works workmanship are listed. The engineering
capabilities of our country are very highly evaluated as the performances of the cases in recent years
in and outside the country show these. Also, the APM system supplied in and outside the country has
secured high safety.
For APM vehicles, development of the vehicles for export is also underway and it can support to
adaptive norms such as required specifications, collision safety performance, and fire-resistant
standard practices of each route. Also, changes of the vehicles organization according to
transportation demand and changes of the exterior and interior design according to the operator's
needs are also possible. Soft sides, such as management, control of maintenance, and education and
training, are also considered to be possible to support the first APM-system introduction in Indonesia
by the high expertise and know-how of our country also including the pilot run before
commencement of operation or maintenance training for staffs.
vii
(7) Detail Schedule and Issues for Realization of the Project
Details schedule at the preparation stage is shown in Figure-2.
Figure-2 Detail Schedule for Realization of the Project
Year
2012
2013
Month
3
6
9 12
3
6
9 12
Submittal of APM system study report
1.Preparation stage
(1)Selection of consultant
(2)Feasibility study
(3)EIA study and disclosure by Govt.
(4)Preparation of resettlement action plan
(5)Award of APM project by Govt.
(6)Process for loan agreement
(7)Basic design and construction plan
(8)Tender process for selection of contractor
(9)Tender preparation by contractor
(10)Tender evaluation and contract with contractor
(11)Land acquisition, Resettlement
(12)Relocation of utilities
2014
3
6
9
2015
12
3
6
Source: Study Team
To realize this project, some factors should be considered as potential risk. First, this project is
premised implementation of electrification and double-double tracking of Java main line project, and
development projects around the area. Delay of those projects might be affect determination of
project implementation. From the existing infrastructure project in Indonesia, it is important to
recognize that land acquisition might be serious risk and plan to minimize land acquisition and
involuntary resettlement. As for financing, it is the task for Indonesian Government to fund raise
long-term and low-interest rate financing.
viii
(8) Project Site Map
Figure-3 Project Site
Indonesia
Bekasi Regency
Project Site
Java Main Line
Jababeka
Industrial Park
MM2100
Industrial Town
Bekasi Fajar
Industrial Estate
Lippo Cikarang
Industrial Estate
EJIP
Deltamas City
Legend
N
：Proposed Route
：Future Extension
：Station
0
1
2
km
Source: Study Team
ix
Chapter 1
Overview of the Host Country and Sector
1.1
Economic/Financial Circumstances of the Host Country
1.1.1 Social Circumstances
Indonesia is located in the south of southeast Asia, and is the world's largest island nation, composed
of approximately 18,000 large and small islands which straddle the equator and stretch into both the
northern and southern hemisphere. The east west distance of the country is long at approximately
5,110km, with a land area of approximately 1,922,570km2 which is equivalent to approximately 5
times the area of Japan. The population is 237,600,000 people (as of 2010) and is the 4th largest
population in the world following China, India and the United States. The capital Jakarta, located on
the island of Java, has a population of 9,590,000 people (as of 2010). In addition, the country has the
largest Muslim population in the world, and the official language is Indonesian.
Country/Region Name
Table 1-1 Indonesia Basic Information
Republic of Indonesia
Area
1,922,570km2 (5.1 times Japan)
Population
237,600,000 people (Central Statistical Office as of 2010)
Capital
Jakarta: Population 9,590,000 people (Central Statistical Office as of 2010)
Language
Indonesian
Religions
Islam, Hindu, Christianity, other
Source: JETRO（http://www.jetro.go.jp/world/asia/idn/basic_01/#block1）
1.1.2 Economic Circumstances
The Indonesian economy has undergone economic management based on IMF programs since the
1997 currency crisis, and promotion of domestic demand has been favorable since 2000. In 2009
after the global financial crisis the country secured a 4.5% growth rate and recovered to 6.1%, the
first time reaching the 6% level in 2 years, in 2010.
Figure 1-1 Real GDP Growth Rate
Source: JETRO (http://www.jetro.go.jp/world/asia/idn/stat_01)
The GDP per person is 3,015 US dollars, exceeding the consumer durable propagation standard of
3,000 US dollars. In addition, the unemployment rate in 2010 was 7.1% and has continued to
1-1
decrease over recent years of stable economic growth.
Exports (year on year +35.4%) and imports (same +40.1%) both expanded, and the 2010 direct
investment received amount was 16,200 million US dollars (year on year +49.9%) making for the
best ever record for the first time in 2 years. There are high expectations for high growth second only
to China and India with promotion of internal demand while advanced nation economy low growth
continues. At present support is being given to expanding the upper in come population and the
export of resources aimed at developing countries, and a firm 6% growth is anticipated.
Table 1-2 Basic Economic Indicators
Item
Year 2008
Real GDP growth rate (%)
(Notes)
Title GDP Total (Rupiah)
Title GDP Total (US Dollars)
GDP Per Person (Title)- US Dollars
Rate of Increase in Consumer Price
Index (%)
(Notes)
Unemployment Rate (%)
Management Revenue and
Expenditure (International Balance
of Payments Base) - US Dollars
Trade Balance (International
Balance of Payments Base) - US
Dollars
Foreign Currency Reserves - US
Dollars
External Debt Burden - Dollars
Exchange Rates
(Average Value in Term, Rate for
US Dollars)
Exchange Rates
(End of Term Value, Rate for US
Dollars)
Monetary Aggregate Rate of
Increase (%)
Export Amounts - Dollars
Japan Export Amounts - US Dollars
Import Amounts - US Dollars
Year 2009
Year 2010
6.0
4.5
6.1
Base year=2000
4,951,356,700
million
511,213 million
Base year=2000
5,613,441,700
million
538,457 million
Base year=2000
6,422,918,200
million
706,735 million
2,237
2,327
3,015
11.06
2.78
6.96
2007=100
2007=100
2007=100
8.4
7.9
7.1
126 million
10,628 million
1,093 million
22,916 million
30,932 million
9,232 million
49,597 million
63,563 million
92,980 million
155,080 million
172,871 million
202,413million
9,698.9600
10,389.9000
9,090.4300
10,950.0000
9,400.0000
8,991.0000
14.9
13.0
n.a
137,020 million
116,510 million
157,779 million
27,744 million
18,575 million
25,782 million
129,197 million
96,829 million
135,663 million
Japan Import Amounts - US Dollars
15,128 million
9,844 million
Direct Investment Receipt Amounts
14,871 million
10,815 million
- US Dollars
Source: JETRO (http://www.jetro.go.jp/world/asia/idn/stat_01)
1-2
16,967 million
16,215 million
1.1.3 Financial Circumstances
(1) Yen Loan Supply Status
The status of yen loans to Indonesia in 2011 was exchange of letters related to 4 cases with an upper
limit of 73,942 million yen in August. The supply limits and supply conditions for the 4 cases are as
follows.
Table 1-3 Supply Limits and Supply Conditions
Project Name
Supplied Amount Limit
(100's of million yen)
Interest (%)
Redemption period
(year)/Deferment
period (year)
Procurement
Conditions
Coal Fired Power Plant Project
in Indramayu (E/S)
17.27
0.01
40/10
Untide
Geothermal Power
Development Project
552.99
0.3
40/10
Untide
Bandung Toll Road Project
136.05
Main Project: 1.4
Consultant: 0.01
25/7
Untide
Upper Citarum Basin
Tributaries Flood Management
Project Sector Loan
33.11
Main Project: 1.4
Consultant: 0.01
25/7
Untide
Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan
(2) PPP Examples
Indonesia's infrastructure is immature compared to other countries due to the government’s lack of
resources. Yen loans, etc. which can be used as methods for funding procurement are progressing in
ways which avoid massive foreign debt in infrastructure resources, and the country is participating in
PPP with which bidding participation can be expected by foreign firms as a method for mitigating
government burden while at the same time not incurring large foreign debt.
As one of the PPP commitment measures a policy is being worked on by which PPP items are
publicly released in the PPP Book every year. Cases publicized in the PPP book have the Ministry of
Transportation, Ministry of Public Works, government power company PLN, and governments of
each state as project owners with participation by foreign businesses expected.
Under these circumstances, PLN, the ordering part, announced in June of 2011 that ITOCHU
Corporation and other companies in a business association had successfully bid on a 3,200 million
dollar coal fired power plant development project being planned on the island of Java. Development
risks are covered by the Indonesia Infrastructure Guarantee Fund established by the government
aimed at such infrastructure projects. The successful bidding on this project is the first Indonesian
PPP and PLN has high expectations for the project.
1-3
1.2
Overview of Project Sector in the Host Country
1.2.1 Public Transportation in the Project Area
Public transportations in the project area are Java main line (Railway) and minibuses. The Java main
line runs north-south on the north side of Cikarang district. The closest station to the study area is
Cikarang station, which is currently not used as a commuter railroad station. The trains stop at this
station only a few in a day. Therefore, the railway system around study area is not convenient at
present.
Minibuses called “Angkots” are operated as an alternative transportation means. Minibuses converge
on gathering areas and make no stops at any fixed stops except at terminal points, allowing
passengers to get on and off at places of their own choosing. The fare varies depending on the
distance travelled, ranging about from 10 to 20 yen. In this regard, however, the fare is negotiable
according to interviews with local drivers as part of our field survey. The service levels of minibuses
are low as a public transport in terms of transport capacity, reliable transport, passenger safety and
comfort.
As is described above, the existing public transport system around the project area is less well
established and still limited. On the contrary, there is an increasing trend of population growth along
with development projects of industrial parks and complex cities, which creates a need to establish a
APM system.
Figure 1-2
Public Transportations in the Project Area
Java Main Line
Industrial Parks
Angkots awaiting
passengers on the road
Source: Study Team
1-4
1.2.2 Outline of Converting National Railway to Commuter Line
(1) Java Main Line
The Java main line traverses east-west across Java Island, running from the urban area including
Jakarta city through the neighboring Bekasi regency. In recent years, traffic volume and the number
of intercity trains have tended towards growth. Furthermore, with the rapid progress in land
development in Jakarta city and around Bekasi regency and an expanding traffic demand in the
capital, Jakarta, shared use of the railway track is unavoidable between the long-distance lines and
the commuter lines on the Bekasi line (between Manggarai and Bekasi stations), which limits the rail
track capacity of the line and hampers smooth traffic control. It is also an obstacle to the
enhancement of the carrying capacity that the Bekasi line crosses at grade with the Central line at
around Manggarai station.
(2) Railway Electrification and Double-Double Tracking of Java Main Line Project
From the above-mentioned situation, the expansion of the existing electrified commuter section on
the Bekasi line has been proposed in order to enhance carrying capacity and streamline operations,
as well as to facilitate the expansion of the commutation area due to industrial complex construction
and estate development in recent years, by separating the long-distance line from the commuter line
through double-double tracking of the Bekasi line and also by dismantling the grade crossing with
the Central line.
In January 1999, the Indonesian government asked Japan for special yen loans for construction of
Railway Electrification (and Double-Double Tracking) of Java Main Line Project. Consequently, in
June 2000, the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) sent the appraisal mission and
confirmed the implementation of this project. Thereafter, the government asked Japan for technical
aid on the detailed design study. After conferring with the Indonesian side, on February 12, 2001,
Japan singed and exchanged S/W (Scope of Work, i.e. administrative instructions).
1.2.3 Road plans
The Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road runs through east and west around Cikarang district. The
community is divided into north and south due to the lack of roads to cross the toll road. Under this
circumstance, JICA is working on road construction projects such as constructions of interchanges
and flyovers to cross the toll road.
The road plans are shown in Table 1-3. The plans from No.5 to No.9 are fixed, but those after No.10
are unfixed. The shape of interchange (No.14) which is changed very often will be modified in the
future.
The route plan of the APM system needs planning to avoid overlaps with these road plans.
1-5
Figure 1-3 Road Plans around Study Area
16
3
To JAKARTA
1
5
ｒ
9
12
6
CIBITUNG IC-KM 25
2
ｒ
7
4
8
5
14
CIKARANG BARAT IC-KM 31
10
15
13
KM 34
CIKARANG TIMUR IC-KM 37
0
1
2
11
km
17
Source: Study Team
1-6
1.3
Present Conditions of Project Area
1.3.1 Administrative Divisions around the Study Area
The Cikarang area of Bekasi regency, located in the eastern part of West Java province, is the study
area of this study. The total area of Bekasi regency, belonging to Jakarta metropolitan region
(JABODETABEK), is (accounts for) 127,000ha.
The Cikarang area is located near the center of Bekasi regency and consists of 5 of the 23
Kecamatans (“Sub-districts” in English) of Bekasi regency: Cikarang barat, Cikarang selatan,
Cikarang timur and Cikarang utara.
Figure 1-4
Administrative Divisions of Bekasi Regency
JABODETABEK
Bekasi
Regency
KEC. MUARAGEMBONG
DKI Jakarta
Bekasi City
KEC. CABANGBUNGIN
KEC. TARUMAJAYA
KEC. SUKAWANGI
KEC. BABELAN
KEC. SUKAKARYA
KEC. PEBAYURAN
KEC. TAMBELANG
KEC. TAMBUN
UTARA
KEC. SUKATANI KEC. KARANG
RAHAGIA
KEC. CIBITUNG
KEC. KEOUNGWARJGIN
KEC. TAMBUN
SELATAN
KEC. CIKARANG
BARAT
KEC. CIKARANG UTARA
KEC. CIKARANG TIMUR
KEC. CIKARANG
SELATAN
KEC. SETU
KEC. CIKARANG PUSAT
KEC. SERANG BARU
KEC. CIBARUSAH KEC. BOJONGMANGU
Source: Study Team
1-7
N
1.3.2 Night-time Population around the Project Area
As is shown in Table 1-4, the whole population of Bekasi regency, approximately 2.275 million in
2009, has been increasing from year to year since 2005, reflecting the trend of population growth in
step with the urban sprawl of the Jakarta metropolitan region. The total population of the 5
sub-districts of Cikarang, which shares about 25% of Bekasi regency's population was
approximately 570,000 people in 2009, and has been increasing year by year. In particular, both
Cikarang barat and Cikarang utara have populations of about 180,000, ranking them highest in
Bekasi regency.
Table1-4
Bekasi Regency Population (2005~2009)
Kecamatan / Sub-district
2005
2006
2007
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Setu
76,830
77,776
80,476
Serang Baru
62,329
63,168
65,353
Cikarang Pusat
41,291
41,804
43,250
Cikarang Selatan
81,270
82,385
85,260
Cibarusah
60,232
61,042
63,188
Bojongmangu
24,378
24,691
25,505
Cikarang Timur
73,781
74,759
77,348
Kedungwaringin
51,551
52,224
54,025
Cikarang Utara
160,363
162,546
168,181
Karangbahagia
76,908
77,951
80,654
Cibitung
143,914
145,850
150,881
Cikarang Barat
155,566
157,631
163,079
Tambun Selatan
341,175
345,780
357,781
Tambun Utara
89,017
90,221
93,347
Babelan
147,139
149,132
154,301
Tarumajaya
82,363
83,492
86,381
Tambelang
34,703
35,119
36,294
Sukawangi
41,466
41,972
43,418
Sukatani
63,487
64,339
66,597
Sukakarya
43,760
44,328
45,859
Pebayuran
91,867
93,049
96,316
Cabangbungin
48,404
48,998
50,686
Muaragembong
36,108
36,538
37,780
Kabupaten Bekasi / Bekasi
2,027,902
2,054,795
2,125,960
Regency
*) Colored rows in the table show the 5 sub-districts of Cikarang.
Source: BPS – Statistics of Bekasi Regency
1-8
2008
(5)
83,016
67,433
44,644
87,969
65,189
26,286
79,823
55,737
173,601
83,232
155,679
168,261
369,233
96,326
159,247
89,124
37,410
44,780
68,743
47,343
99,444
52,289
38,967
2,193,776
Population
(people)
2009
(6)
86,099
69,934
46,272
91,208
67,589
27,205
82,769
57,792
180, 012
86,318
161,453
174,483
382,896
99,924
165,147
92,419
38,785
46,437
71,294
49,089
103,130
54,186
40,401
2,274,842
Chapter 2
Study Methodology
2.1
2.1.1
Study Content
Study Background
At present, members mainly from the Japan Transportation Planning Association hold monthly
meetings at APM (Automated People Mover) International Seminar to discuss the installation of the
Japanese APM system to overseas. The present study is conducted in cooperation with commercial
firms and makers that are members of the seminar, selecting Cikarang district in Indonesia as the
target area of the installation of the APM system.
The target area of study currently relies on road transportation such as buses, taxies and private cars,
which brings road traffic congestion into prominence along with the progress in estate development
and accordingly impacts on the urban environment become an issue. Local interested parties
recognize the necessity of enhancing convenience of the rail transport system with feeder
transportation that connects between the Java main line and Jababeka industrial park, MM2100
industrial town, etc., and improving the urban function of the same area. Through the local offices of
Marubeni Corporation and Mitsui & Co., Ltd., the proposed project installation was explained to the
parties relevant to the industrial park and Bekasi regency where the target area is located and have
obtained their approval. Furthermore, while there is so far no upper-level plan for this project, assent
has been granted from the Regional body for planning and development (BAPPEDA; Badan
Perencana Pembangunan Daerah) of Bekasi regency for this project and the governor of Bekasi
issued a request letter for conducting this study with a high hope for the realization of this project.
From now on, the governor of Bekasi regency will confer with the West Java government, a more
senior organization, to make this project a master plan of West Java province.
2.1.2 Study Objective
This project is aimed at strengthening the feeder function of the Java main line, reducing road traffic
congestion, conserving urban environments from air pollution, etc. As is said above, it is considered
that the installation of the APM system into the area closely connected with Japan can be highly
beneficial for Japanese companies as well as future development of the area.
2.1.3
Study Outline
This study covers technical and financial/institutional aspects of the project as follows.
(1) Study of Technical Aspects of the Project
1) Planning and Demand Forecast
Optimum routes are suggested in consideration of facility situations, future development plans,
installation spaces, the scale of land acquisition, characteristics of the APM system, etc., of the
target area of study. Stations are set at points that are of high convenience based on the research of
customer-attracting facilities and road conditions, etc.
User potential of the APM system is examined from the population, transport characteristics, etc.,
of the target area and future demand is estimated using four-step demand forecast method.
2) Project Construction Planning
Geological formations and conditions along the railway line are surveyed and a basic plan for civil
structures, station buildings and a depot of the APM system is worked out. Plans for signalling,
telecommunications, vehicles, depot facilities, etc., are also designed for the APM system
operation.
2-1
3) Operation and Management Planning
Smooth operation planning is conducted with service standards taken into account based on
demand forecast results and manpower planning related to operation and maintenance is
scrutinized.
4) Approximate Cost Estimating and Project Schedule Examination
Estimated construction cost of the project is calculated in home and foreign currencies each in
consideration of investment timing. The project schedule incorporating procedural periods for
construction and project execution is also examined.
5) Study on Environmental and Social Considerations
Institutions and regulations related to environmental and social considerations in Indonesia are
surveyed and possible environmental and social impacts of the project are identified.
(2) Financial and Institutional Aspects
1) Examination of PPP Schemes
PPP schemes and operations in Indonesia are confirmed and studies on applicable project schemes
are carried out.
2) Economic and Financial Analysis
Multiple cases of introducing yen loans, Indonesian governmental funds and private funds are set
for the project schemes proposed above, their cash flows are computed and indices such as NPV,
EIRR, FIRR, B/C, etc., are calculated.
2-2
2.2
Study Methodology and Organization
2.2.1 Overview
This study consists of field surveys and domestic research. The former includes investigating team
members visits to Indonesia to consult with the relevant parties, obtain materials and make
explorations into the project site. They then bring back the related information to Japan, organize and
analyse the materials and create a report based on consultation with the relevant parties and
implementation policies.
2.2.2 Study Methodology
(1) Domestic Preparatory Work
Studies from past fiscal years conducted in the relevant country and related materials are collected
and their possible applications to this project are examined. The overall composition of this project
and research policies are also inspected.
Lists of the collected data from the relevant parties in the 1st field survey are sorted out.
(2) The 1st Field Survey
Visits are paid to Japanese organizations such as the Embassy of Japan in Indonesia, JBIC, JICA,
etc., Indonesian governmental organizations and developers of the target area to present a summary
of this project, call for research cooperation and obtain materials. Interviews with Japanese
construction companies and consultants are performed to obtain information of local construction
conditions, construction plans in the relevant area, etc.
In the field survey, traffic situations of the target site and road conditions for introduction spaces are
put into investigations.
(3) The 1st Domestic Work
Based on the data and information obtained from the 1 st field survey, the overall research policy is
reviewed, investigations are carried out by each person in charge and draft reports are created.
(4) The 2nd Field Survey
An explanation of the contents of the draft reports is given to Japanese organizations in Indonesia
and Indonesian governmental organizations with opinions exchanged.
(5) The 2nd Domestic Work
Based on the opinions derived from the 2nd field survey, alterations and additions are made to the
draft reports and reports are created.
2-3
2.2.3 Study Organization
(1) Study Team
Figure 2-1 shows the study team.
Figure 2-1
Tostems, INC.
Engineer Overseas Dept.
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries,
LTD.
Transportation Systems
Engineering Department
Study Team
Project Manager / Rolling Stock Plan
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, LTD.
Transportation Systems & Advanced
Technology Division
Mr. Motoyama Hisashi
Demand Forecast
Mr. Yamazaki Seiichiro
Economic & Financial Analysis
Ms. Aoki Naomi
Social & Economic Consideration
Mr. Kato Shigeru
Japan Transportation Planning
Association
Basic Policy
Mr. Sakai Hidenori
Support Company Head Office
Marubeni Corporation
Railway & Transport Project
Dept.
Project Team -Ⅰ
Support Company Local Office
Marubeni Corporation Jakarta Office
Construction, Transportation &
Infrastructure
Route Plan１
Mr. Yamazaki Tsutomu
Route Plan２
Mr. Yamauchi Masahiro
Civil Works Plan
Mr. Inoue Akitoshi
Support Company Head Office
Mitsui &Co., LTD.
Transportation Project Div.
Support Company Local Office
Representative Office of Mitsui &
Co., LTD. in Indonesia
Plant project Div.
Depot Plan/Cost Estimation
Mr. Ishihara Junichi
E&M system
Mr. Utsugi Hiroshi
Train Operation Plan
Mr. Chiba Nobuyuki
Source: Study Team
O&M Plan
Mr. Tanaka Shoji
(2) Relevant organization of the host country
1) Bekasi Regency
Bekasi Regency
Government Planning Dep.
Transportation Dept.
2) Industrial Parks around the study area
MM2100 Industrial Town
Jababeka Industrial Park
Lippo Cikarang Industrial Estate
EJIP
Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate
2-4
2.3
2.3.1
Study Schedule
Overall Study Schedule
Figure 2-1 shows the overall study schedule.
Figure 2-2
Overall Study Schedule
2011
2012
Work Activity
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Work in Japan
1) Preparation
2) 1st Stage of work in Japan
3) 2nd Stage of work in Japan
Field Survey
1) 1st Field survey
(Nov. 13, 2011-Nov. 27, 2011)
2) 2nd Field survey
(Feb. 5, 2012-Feb. 11, 2012)
Reporting, etc.
1) Interim Reporting
▼
(12/15)
2) Submission of Draft Report
▼
(1/13)
3) Final Reporting
▼
(2/15)
4) Submission of Final Report
▼
(2/23)
Source: Study Team
2-5
2.3.2
Study Periods
(1) Domestic Work Periods
Table 2-1 shows the domestic work periods.
Duty
Table 2-1 Domestic Work Periods
Name of Team Member
Company
Period
2011/11/1~11/19
11/28~2012/2/4
2012/2/12~2/23
2011/11/1~11/12
11/28~2012/2/4
2012/2/12~2/23
2011/11/1~11/19
11/28~2012/2/4
2012/2/12~2/23
2011/11/1~11/12
11/28~2012/2/4
2012/2/12~2/23
Project Manager /
Rolling Stock Plan
Mitsubishi Heavy
Industries, LTD.
Demand Forecast
Tonichi Engineering
Consultants, INC
Economic &
Financial Analysis
Ms. Aoki Naomi
Tostems, INC.
Social & Economic
Consideration
Mr. Kato Shigeru
Tostems, INC.
Basic Policy
Mr. Sakai Hidenori
Route Plan 1
Mr. Yamazaki Tsutomu
Route Plan 2
Mr. Yamauchi Masahiro
Japan Transportation
Planning Association
Civil Works Plan
Mr. Inoue Akitoshi
Tostems, INC.
2011/11/1~11/12
11/28~2012/2/23
Depot Plan/Cost
Estimation
Tostems, INC.
2011/11/1~12/26
E&M system
Mr. Utsugi Hiroshi
Tostems, INC.
Train Operation
Plan
Mr. Chiba Nobuyuki
Tostems, INC.
O&M Plan
Mr. Tanaka Shoji
Tostems, INC.
2011/11/1~2012/2/23
2011/11/1~2012/2/23
2011/11/1~2012/2/23
2011/11/1~11/19
11/28~2012/2/23
2011/11/1~11/12
11/28~2012/2/23
2011/11/1~2012/2/23
Source: Study Team
(2) Field Survey Periods
Table 2-2 shows the field survey periods.
Table 2-2
Duty
Field Survey Periods
Name of Team Member
Project Manager /
Rolling Stock Plan
Demand Forecast
Economic &
Financial Analysis
Social & Economic
Consideration
Company
Mitsubishi Heavy
Industries, LTD.
Tonichi Engineering
Consultants, INC
Period
2011/11/20~11/27
2012/2/5~2/11
2011/11/13~11/27
2012/2/5~2/11
2011/11/20~11/27
2012/2/5~2/11
2011/11/13~11/27
2012/2/5~2/11
Ms. Aoki Naomi
Tostems, INC.
Mr. Kato Shigeru
Tostems, INC.
Civil Works Plan
Mr. Inoue Akitoshi
Tostems, INC.
2011/11/13~11/27
Depot Plan/Cost
Estimation
Tostems, INC.
2011/11/13~11/27
E&M system
Mr. Utsugi Hiroshi
Tostems, INC.
2011/11/20~11/27
Train Operation
Plan
Mr. Chiba Nobuyuki
Tostems, INC.
2011/11/13~11/27
Source: Study Team
2-6
(3) Field Survey Itineraries
The 1st and 2nd field surveys were conducted for 15 days (Nov. 13-27, 2011) and for 7 days (Feb.
5-11, 2012) respectively. Table 2-3 shows the main work activity.
Table 2-3
1st Field
Survey
Date
Nov. 14,
2011
Work Activity
Work Activity
JBIC
Name (Position)
Mr. Homma Manabu (Chief Representative)
JETRO
Mr. Saito Ken (Vice President Director)
JICA
Mr. Matsunaga Akira (Senior Representative)
Mr. Ihara Hidenori (Representative)
Mr. Dedy S.Priatna, PhD (Deputy Minister for
Infrastructure Affairs)
Ir. Bambang Prihartono, MSCE (Director)
Mr. Kennedy Simanjuntak (Director of
Bilateral Foreign Funding)
Mr. Nugroho Indrio (Secretary Directorate
General Director General of Railway Ministry
of Transportation)
Mr. Heru Wisnu Wibowo (Head of Planning
Division)
Mr. Santoso Sinaga (Staf Bagian
Perencanaan)
Ms. Vonny Mahendri (Staf of Planning
Division)
Mr. Wakita Yuichi (Project Manager)
Nov. 15
BAPPENAS (Infrastructure Affairs)
Nov. 16
BAPPENAS (Bilateral Foreign
Funding)
Ministry of Transportation Public of
Indonesia / Directorate General of
Railways
Nov. 18
Nov. 21
Nov. 22
Oriental Consultants, Co., Ltd(Road
Transport Department / Project
Manage)
PLN (Head Office)
Nov. 23
Bekasi Regency
Mr. Purnomo Willy BS (Head of Java Bali
Distribution Division)
Mr. Victor T. Sitorus (Manager Senior System
Distribution Java-Bali)
Mr. DR. H. Ta’duddin, MM (Bupati Bekasi)
Mr. Kobi Yoshihiro (President & C.E.O)
Mr. Loh, Meow Chong (President Director /
CEO)
Mr. Dipl-Ing. Ju Kian Salim (Director)
Mr. Alexander Sananto (Project Management
Division Head General Manager)
Mr. Eddy Triyanto Sudjatmiko, St., Meng. Sc.
(Infrastructure Design Department Head
Manager)
Mr. S. D. Darmono (President Director)
Mr. Hyanto Wihadhi (Director)
Mr. Fukuda Tsuyoshi (General Manager)
Mr. Nuki Hartanto Kadiman (Master Planner)
Mr. Rahendra Vidyasantika
Nov. 25 Embassy of Japan Indonesia
Mr. Yoshizawa Takashi (Counselor)
Mr. Kamite Kenji (First Secretary)
PLN (Branch Office)
Mr. Fery Jusmedi Marbun (Power System
Engineer Planning Division)
Others: General Contractor, Consultant, Local Consultant / Site Survey
2-7
2nd
Field
Survey
Date
Feb. 6,
2012
Feb. 7
Work Activity
Name (Position)
Mr. Kobi Yoshihiro (President & C.E.O)
Joint conference with 6 Industrial
Estates
Lippo Cikarang industrial estate
East Jakarta industrial park
Jababeka Industrial Park,
Deltamas City
(Total 20 participants)
Mr. Bastary Pandji Indra (Director of PPP
Development), and 5 participants
Mr. DR. H. Ta’duddin, MM (Bupati Bekasi),
and 2 participants
Mr. MP. Jamary Tarigan (Chairman)
Ms. R.A. Koesoemo Roekmi, and 12
participants
Mr. Ushio Shigeru (Minister)
Mr.Kamite Kenji (First Secretary)
Mr. Asri Syafei and 8 participants
BAPPENAS (Infrastructure Affairs)
Feb. 8
Bekasi Regency
BAPPEDA
Feb. 9
Embassy of Japan Indonesia
Feb. 10
Ministry of Transportation,
Directorate General of Railways
(DGR)
JETRO
BAPPENAS (Bilateral Foreign
Funding)
JBIC
JICA
Mr. Tomiyoshi Kenichi (President Director)
Mr. Ichihara Katsunori (Senior Director)
Mr. Kennedy Simanjuntak (Director of
Bilateral Foreign Funding)
Mr. Homma Manabu (Chief Representative)
Ms. Fukaya Satoko (Representative)
Mr. Ihara Hidenori (Representative)
Source: Study Team
2-8
Chapter 3
Justification, Objectives and Technical Feasibility of
the Project
3.1 Background, Necessity, Etc. for Project
3.1.1 Background of Project and Positioning
(1) Background of the project
The Cikarang district which is the region for this project is located in about 30 km east of Jakarta,
and consists of five sub-districts, the west Cikarang, the north Cikarang, the south Cikarang, the east
Cikarang, and the center of Cikarang. In the sub-districts concerned, about 570,000 people live in the
area of 248 km2 as of 2009, and it is expected that population continues to increase rapidly. The
Cikarang district is divided into the partition of the Jababeka industrial park, the MM2100 industrial
town, the Lippo Cikarang industrial estate, the EJIP, Deltamas City, etc., and is developed as a
large-scale industrial park and a complex city, and development is underway still now. For example,
the Jababeka industrial park had a site of 5,600ha, and consisted of an industrial park, commercial
facilities, a residential compound, educational facilities, amusement facilities, etc., and, as for the
industrial park, the companies from 30 or more nations in the world have moved in. Marubeni Corp.
who is a cooperation company of this sutdy has contributed 60% to the MM2100 industrial town and
Japanese companies form a little less than 70% of 100 or more of the companies advancing into this
industrial town.
The Java main line runs to the north side in the area concerned, and Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road is
running in the center of the area from east and west. Although the traffic in the area depends on the
road traffic of cars, buses, minibuses, and motorbikes, chronic traffic congestion has occurred in the
everywhere in the area by the shortage of road capacity, and a heavy road traffic. Especially there are
few roads which cross Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road, and almost all existing roads are narrow where
the north-south area was divided. Although creation of the road master plan of the area concerned is
underway by JICA now, it is considered difficult to improve the traffic situation of the area
concerned only by road maintenance and improvement in the future. Also, the railway electrification
and double-double tracking of Java main line project are to be promoted as a yen credit project in the
near future for Java main line. It is considered that the economic activity of the area concerned
becomes increasingly active with increase in Cikarang station users.
This project uses the Cikarang station as a terminal, introduces a APM system as feeder line traffic to
the Jababeka industrial park and MM2100 industrial town, etc., and aims at strengthening the
north-south traffic axis. Thereby, confusion dissolution of the road traffic of the area concerned,
preservation of the urban environment by relief of air pollution, improvement in the convenience of
the commuter to the industrial park concerned, etc. are expected. Furthermore, it is considered that
introduction of the APM system to the area where many Japanese companies have moved in as
mentioned above has the high benefit effect to Japanese-owned companies together with area
development and revitalization of the economy.
(2) Positioning of the project
The high rank plan about the project concerned does not exist now. However, the developer related
personnel involved in the industrial park of the area concerned recognize that communications
strengthening to the Cikarang station aligned with transportation capacity reinforcement of the Java
main line and the area concerned is required for the improvement in the urban function of the area
concerned. Also, in the Bekasi regency which administers over the object area, approval has been
obtained from Governor of Bekasi regency and Regional body for planning and development
(BAPPEDA; Badan Perencana Pembangunan Daerah), and realization of this project is expected.
3-1
3.1.2 Necessity for APM System Introduction
The necessity for the APM system introduction to the area concerned is shown below.
(1) Reduction of road traffic congestion
Although explained in full detail in the clause of the below-mentioned "Demand forecast", the travel
speed of the road traffic of the peak time period in the area concerned is 13.8 km/h, and even 3 to 5
km/h is also observed in some places at the congestion section (Kajian Lalu Lintas Pada Simpag (PT.
Lippo Cikarang, Tbk, survey in 2010)). Thus, road congestion is a cause of a serious social problem,
and has interfered with the economic activity of the area concerned. It is considered that the area
concerned is difficult to handle the road traffic which increases more and more with development of
a large-scale complex city and an industrial park by only road maintenance and improvement
although creation of the road master plan in underway by JICA presently. Introduction of a APM
system contributes to the reduction of road traffic congestion by transition from road traffic, such as
cars and buses, and can expect to secure a smooth road traffic flow.
(2) Securing of Industrial park commuter's convenience and safety
Large-scale industrial parks, such as Jababeka industrial park, MM2100 industrial town, Lippo
Cikarang industrial estate, and EJIP, are getting together in the area concerned and a large majority
of employees commute there. There are many residents of the places about 15 km away, such as
Bekasi city and Cibarusah district, among commuters, and most of them commute by the bus and
motorbike arranged by factories. Cars, buses, and motorbikes converge at a peak time period, and
securing of punctuality is difficult. Also, lack of driving manners was added to the congested road
traffic, and the traffic accident has occurred frequently. At the time of the interview with industrial
park related personnel, it is reported that at least two traffic accidents/d have occurred. Thus, it is
considered that introduction of the APM system is desirable as an aid to overcome the poor traffic
situation for the commuter of the industrial park.
(3) Introduction of the APM system united with future development planning
The Java main line goes from east and west at the north side in the area concerned. The trains which
stop at Cikarang station currently assumed to be a terminal of the APM system are presently 5/d/one
direction and are not functioning as a commuter. It is decided that this Java main line will fix
functional reinforcement by yen credit at present. In order to cope with a shortage of track capacity,
and the future increase of trains, it is to be electrified between the Bekasi station and the Cikarang
station in addition to separating operation of the commuter trains while building double-double
tracks between Manggarai station and Cikarang station. This makes it easy to access to the Bekasi
city and the Jakarta metropolitan area to the area concerned by the increase of accessibility to the
area concerned from neighboring areas, and it is expected that Cikarang station users increase in
number. As a means of transportation for visitors from other areas and for the commuters and callers
from the area concerned to other areas, introduction of the APM system is required.
(4) Benefit effects to Japanese-owned companies
The large-scale industrial park located the area concerned as shown in Table 3-1, and 2,100 or more
companies have moved in from various countries in the world. Japanese companies represent about
15% of 310 companies among them. While the city traffic of the area concerned is expanded by
introducing the APM system and activation of the economic activities will be attained, it leads to
development of the industrial park and a boosting up of companies which are making inroads in the
future.
3-2
Table3-1
Number of Companies in the Industrial Park of the Target Region
(Unit：Companies)
Number of moved in companies
Area name of industrial park
Grand total
Indonesia
Japanese-owned
companies
company
Others
1,250
500
80
670
173
34
115
24
468
361
27
80
96
67
16
13
EJIP
85
8
68
9
Deltamas City
61
57
4
0
2,133
1,027
310
796
Total
Source: Marubeni Jakarta branch office (as of October, 2010)
3-3
3.2
Various Examinations Required for Determination of
Project Details, Etc.
3.2.1 Route Plan
The proposed system aims to serve as public transportation for areas around the railway as well as
feeder transportation running to industrial parks and the complex city as the starting point for
Cikarang station of the Java main line. In the examination of the route proposal the basic policy for
the background for this proposal and alternative proposals is as follows.
(1) Background of the Proposal Related to the Examination of the Route
Needs
Present
conditions
and
Future
Plans
Issues
Solutions
Proposal
Table3-2 Background of the Proposal Related to the Examination of the Route
Necessity of feeder
Necessity of Cikarang's
Necessity of provision of
transportation for Cikarang
public transportation
means of commuting to work
station of the Java main line
improvement
for industrial park employees
After the completion of the
The bulk of Cikarang's
The methods of commuting
currently in progress
public transportation is
for industrial complex
double-double tracking project, made up of "Angkot"
employees are motorcycles
it will become an important
minibuses.
and scooters for relatively
terminal as the eastern tip of a
Angkots have a small
short distances and buses
commuting line with a large
transport capacity of about 6 provided by employers. These
volume of travelers connecting to 7 people per vehicle and
commuter buses travel from
to Cikarang station, Bekasi
are the same type of
Cikarang district and
station and Manggarai station.
transportation as a shared
surroundings.
taxi.
Once the conversion to a
There is no public
During commuting hours the
commuter line is completed,
transportation which serves
toll road are congested with
the service that can be provided as a backbone for the
commuter buses from the toll
by Angkots will be insufficient north-south axis for
road interchange to the
in terms of both quality and
transportation in the area.
industrial complexes and in
quantity in relation to the
Roads around Cikarang
addition the worsening of the
demand for feeder
station in particular suffer
toll road congestion problems
transportation for Cikarang
from chronic traffic
are increasing the cost of
station.
congestion.
running the commuter buses
as well as the amount of time
spent by commuters for
commuting.
In order to convert railways to
Introduce a medium scale
Establish a public
electrical and fully exert the
transport system to fill the
transportation organization in
benefits of the conversion to a
gap between the railways
charge of commuter
commuter line project, it is
and Angkots as a public
transportation to industrial
necessary to secure feeder
transportation.
parks through merger with the
transportation which meets the
commuter line.
demand of the commuter line
and create and environment
where is easy for residents and
workers to use the railway.
Introduce a public transportation organization which ties together Cikarang station, industrial
parks and the complex city.
Source: Study Team
3-4
(2) Basic Policy for the Setting of Proposed Route
1) Role of the Proposed System
The purpose of the proposed system is to function as feeder transportation for Cikarang station of
the Java main line in addition to improving Cikarang's public transportation service and redusing
road traffic congestion. For this reason, a route plan will be selected which allows for introduction
of a public transportation system with transport capacity appropriate to demand and exceptional
punctuality and speediness.
2) Overall Image
From the viewpoint of improving as a public transportation organization, this project requires
improvement of traffic convenience in target areas, reduction of road traffic congestion, promotion
of regional economic growth and generation of economic profit. On the other hand, in order to
quickly advance the project, it can be expected that private sector participation and international
financial organization support will be required, so it will also be necessary to consider manifesting
beneficial effects for relevant private sectors and relevant countries. For these reasons the route
should provide convenience to not just a specific industrial park but to a wide range of industrial
parks. In addition, in order to spur participation in the project by developers for areas around the
railway, etc., the route shall also take into consideration the future installation of new stations and
potential for route expansion.
3) Starting Point and End Point
It can be expected that there will be a great potential demand for railway service by employees,
residents and visitors of the industrial park that spans to south of Cikarang and complex city, so
the securing of feeder transportation for these areas has high priority. The starting point for the
route will be set as Cikarang station of the Java main line and the end point inside the industrial
park/complex city.
4) Range to be Covered by Railway Station Sphere
The industrial park/complex city area covers a wide area so it is not realistic to directly cover all
of this area as the railway station sphere for the proposed route. As such, the stations in the
industrial park/complex city are expected to serve as hubs as a terminal transportation facility for
Angkots and other small scale transportation systems.
5) Future Expansion
The industrial park and complex city have a future development plan and development concept
which allows for project lot expansion, development of large scale residential areas and attraction
of commercial facilities.
At the present stage of alternative proposal examinations, the plan does not cover industrial
park/complex city future development plan/concept target areas, but rather handles this through
expansion of the route and establishment of new stations in the future when development
progresses. This study proposes the areas for which preparation is vital as "Initial" and areas for
which future expansion is assumed as "Ultimate".
6) Track Right of Way
The right of way for proposed system will be elevated and separated from road traffic. In addition,
from the point of view of social environmental considerations, the plan should minimize the
involuntary resettlement as much as possible.
3-5
(3) Setting of Proposed Route
Based upon the above policy, the two proposals shown in Figure 3-1 have been set.
Both use Cikarang station as a starting point and move south to the industrial parks. After passing the
toll road, proposed 1 extends northwest and proposed route 2 extends southeast.
In addition, the section of the route inside MM2100 industrial town's southwest edge and the section
which heads from the depot proposed site toward Deltamas City are future planned routes to be
prepared during the Ultimate portion of the project.
Figure 3-1 Proposed Routes
Cikarang station
Cikarang Station
Java Main Line
Jababeka
Industrial Park
Industrial road
Interchange of toll road
MM2100
Industrial Town
Proposed Depot Site
Lippo Cikarang
Industrial Estate
Bekasi Fajar
Industrial Estate
EJIP
Deltamas City
Legend
：Proposed route 1
：Proposed route 2
：Future Extension
0
1
2
km
Source: Study Team
3-6
Overviews of proposed routes 1 and 2 are shown below.
Table3-3 Proposed Route Overview
Item
Proposed Route 1
Proposed Route 2
Route
Cikarang station~Jababeka industrial
Cikarang station~ Industry road
park~Bekasi Fajar industrial
~Jababeka-Cikampek Toll Road Cikaran
estate~MM2100 industrial town
interchange area~Lippo Cikarang industry
estate
Extension
Approx. 12km
Approx. 11km
Distance (km)
The depot location will be the same with
proposed route 1 due to the difficulty for
finding the depot site. Therefore, total route
length is longer than proposed route 1
considering to approx. 2.5km length of the
approach track from the main line to the
depot.
Right of Way
In the roads inside the industrial parks, Because the road with of the Industry road
the wide green belt in the center of the which heads south from the station towards
road widths will can used and elevated the toll road is narrow and a wide width is
installation is possible.
necessary, it will become necessary to
expropriate the land along the road.
Technical
Merit or
Demerit
Instruction
Cost
The right of way is mainly a strip of
green belt, thus the impact of other
public transportations is low. In addition,
the construction is easy that the
nighttime work is not necessary.
Land acquisition cost is saved using the
green belt of industrial parks. Comparing
with proposed route 2, the personnel cost
is also saved because the construction is
done during daytime work.
The right of way is mainly arterial road,
thus road widening maintenance and road
crossing during the construction are
necessary. The nighttime work is also
necessary due the lack of the right of way.
As mentioned above, the approach track
length is long than that of proposed route 1,
thus the cost of civil works for proposed
route 2 is approximately 1.1 times.
Involuntary settlements increase with the
APM introduction.
The construction cost is higher due to the
traffic control and nighttime work.
There are future development plans for
Jababeka industrial park, EJIP, and securing
depot site is difficult.
If the same position as proposed route 1 is
used as the site, the approach track from the
main line to the depot will be long and
uneconomical.
Jababeka industrial park and Lippo
Cikarang industrial estate residential
development are ongoing.
Proposed
Depot Site
The proposed site is undeveloped land
within the Bekasi Fajar industrial estate
area.
Development
Plan for Area
along Railway
There are plans for new installation of
interchange on toll road which accesses
the industrial park, development of
commercial facilities in area to the north
of toll road and Bekasi Fajar industrial
estate development.
Industrial park commuter’s convenience Cikarang station user's convenience
increase.
increase.
Developments of commercial facilities
become more active with the APM
introduction.
Source: Study Team
Social Benefit
3-7
(4) Evaluation of Proposed Routes
Proposed route 1 is selected as the route for the proposed system. Therefore, only proposed route 1 is
subject to the discussion after this article in this study report.
For proposed route 1, use of the wide road center in the industrial park is possible, which greatly
reduces the completion risks involved in acquiring land compared to proposed route 2, and also
allows for involuntary resettlement to be minimized.
(5) Route Overview
The proposed route uses Cikarang station of the Java main line as a starting point and bypasses
Jababeka industrial park with the terminal station planned near the IT center planned in the MM2100
industrial town. Development of commercial facilities is planned in the Jababeka industrial park to
the north of the toll road partway along the route and development of an industrial park in Bekasi
Fajar industrial estate is also planned.
The entire route will be elevated. The track will be installed in the air above the approximately 10m
wide greenbelt in the center of the road within the industrial park.
In the area which crosses the Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road, it is necessary to install a bridge to pass
over the toll road. Because it is difficult to construct the bridge supports for the main route bridge in
the median strip of the toll road, a steel long span bridge will be used. In addition, the position for
crossing the toll road will be a position avoiding the location where the currently planned
interchange will be installed between Jababeka industrial park and Bekasi Fajar industrial estate.
In the areas inside MM2100 industrial town where the route will be installed where steel towers for
high voltage lines stand, elevated structures need to install without impact for high voltage lines. In
addition, if any underground installations impede the construction, the installations will be relocated.
3-8
Figure 3-2
Proposed Route 1
Connection with Cikarang station
Jababeka
Industrial Park
APM will runs over greenbelt in industrial estates
High voltage line over greenbelt
Long spanned bridge is needed
MM2100
Industrial Town
Plan for interchange of toll road
Proposed site for depot
Lippo Cikarang
Industrial Estate
Bekasi Fajar
Industrial Estate
EJIP
Deltamas City
0
1
2
km
Source: Study Team
3-9
Photo 3-1 Current Conditions of Proposed Route
Cikarang station
Track condition near Cikarang station
Greenbelt inside Jababeka industrial park
Planned site for flyover to cross
the toll road
Bekasi Fajar industrial estate
High voltage lines inside
(planned site)
MM2100 industrial town
Source: Study Team
3-10
3.2.2 Demand Forecast
(1) Premise for Demand Forecast
1) General
a) Forecasting objective Year
The initial objective year for demand forecast is supposed to be year 2019, meeting the opening
year of target transport system. (e.g. year 2020 was applied to the MPA (Metropolitan Priority
Area for Investment and Industry) master plan study.)
Since final year for demand forecast is needed to take into account of the project life, generally it
is assumed to be 10 through 30 year term. Year 2030 is assumed for the mid term, year 2048 for
the long term in this study.
b) Objectives of demand forecast
Target area for demand forecast covers following 5 zones located in the middle of Bekasi regency.
Figure 3-3 Target Area for Demand Forecast
East Cikarang（Cikarang Timur）
North Cikarang (Cikarang Utara)
South Cikarang (Cikarang Selatan)
Central Cikarang (Cikarang Pusat)
West Cikarang (Cikarang Barat)
Whole area
51 km2
43 km2
52 km2
48 km2
54 km2
248 km2
North Cikarang
East Cikarang
West Cikarang
South Cikarang
Central Cikarang
Source: Study Team
This demand forecast focuses on passengers transport demand produced /attracted in target area.
2) Assumption on provision of urban transport network
It is assumed that major regional transport projects concerning target area (Cikarang district) is to
be completed by objective year. In this study “The railway electrification and double-double
tracking of Java main line project“, which was proposed in SITRAMP2 (The Study on Integrated
Transportation Master Plan for JABODETABEK in the Republic of Indonesia (Phase2), 2004) by
JICA, is taken into consideration.
3-11
Figure3-4
Java Main Line
Manggarai
Bekasi
West Bekasi
Cibitung
Cikarang
Railway electrification and double-double tracking
of Java main line project
Source: JICA SITRAMP2 (The Study on Integrated Transportation Master Plan for
JABODETABEK in the Republic of Indonesia (Phase2), 2004)
Currently the Java main line is operated in double tracking basis, mixing interurban services and
commuting services. It is difficult to increase network capacity (train dispatching) due to
limitation of track transport capacity. The project of double-double tracking aims at separating
inter urban services and local services and expediting modal transfer to railway through improving
service level for commuter transport by electrification.
3) Assumption on the land development plan in target area
A number of multiple urban development projects, including industrial park and residential estate,
are carried out by several land developers. The development area, including existing one, is
assumed as follows based on available information from developers.
3-12
Table 3-4 Assumption on Development Area Size in Target Area
Residential
Industrial
Zone
Name of developer development
(ha) development (ha)
Kota Jababeka
520
East Cikarang
Kota Jababeka
276
Total
796
0
Kota Jababeka
340
1,256
North Cikarang
Total
340
1,256
Kota Jababeka
60
314
Lippo
730
Delta silicon
300
South Cikarang
Ejip
300
Hyundai
200
Total
790
1,114
Kota Jababeka
100
Central Cikarang
Delta mas
1,500
Total
1,600
0
Bekasi Fajar
150
West Cikarang
MM2100
40
805
Total
190
805
Whole area
2,116
3,175
Source: Arranged by study team based on the information of each developer
(2) Analysis on current transport condition
1) Transport characteristics of commuting
a) Commuting time
According to the commuters census conducted by BPS (Badan Pusat Statistik）in 2005, the
average commuting time in each metropolitan area of Indonesia was presented as shown in Table
3-5.
Table 3-5 Distribution of Average Commuting Time in Metropolitan Area
Distribution of commuting time (%)
Metropolitan area
Less than
120minutes
30~59minutes 60~120minutes
30minutes
and over
Kota Jakarta Timur
20.9
32.4
37.9
8.7
Kota Bekasi
16.0
33.7
43.2
7.1
Kota Depok
23.5
21.3
38.7
16.5
Kab. Bandung
40.1
24.1
23.7
12.1
Kab. Deli Serdang
40.9
38.2
18.0
2.9
Kab. Bogor
12.3
27.2
35.3
24.8
Source: Profil Komuter, 2005 Badan Pusat Statistik
In case of Bekasi city close to target area, most of commuters spend 1 to 2 hours on their
commuting, followed by commuters spending 30 minutes to 1 hour. These data demonstrate
relatively long travel time for commuters in metropolitan area.
3-13
b) Transport modal share in commuting trip
Table 3-6 Modal Characteristics of Commuters
Commuting transport means
Collective
Private transport
Metropolitan area
transportation
means (private
including mass transit
cars, motorbike)
Kota Jakarta Timur
55.4
39.3
Kota Bekasi
57.9
38.5
Kota Depok
58.4
34.6
Kota Bendung
48.6
31.4
Kab. Deli Serdang
57.4
37.4
Kab. Bogor
82.5
14.1
Source: Profil Komuter, 2005 Badan Pusat Statistik
Walking
5.4
3.6
7.0
20.0
5.3
3.4
The table 3-6 shows that 30 to 40% of commuters are choosing private transport means such as
private cars and motorbikes and 60% or less of commuters are choosing public mass transport
means like bus.
As target system is categorized as collective transport means, about 60% of commuters is
supposed to be users of the system.
2) Road traffic congestion
Traffic congestion on road contrasts the comparative advantage of transport system with dedicated
ROW like objective transport systems, thus road traffic congestion often turns to be significant
factors affecting transport demand. A traffic study related to the introduction of new toll road
interchange in Cikarang districts the current road travel speed in urban area as shown in table 3-7.
Table 3-7 Result of Travel Speed Survey in Cikarang
Distance from
Elapsed
Required
Check points of elapsed time
Starting Point
Time
Time
(×100m)
(H:M:S)
(H:M:S)
Kantor Camat Cikarang Selatan
0.0
8:51:00
Simpang Hyudai
1.6
8:55:09
0:04:09
Simpang Lippo Cikarang
3.2
9:00:00
0:04:51
Simpang Taman Sentosa
5.6
9:01:51
0:01:51
Jembatan Layang
6.9
9:03:45
0:01:54
Simpang Jababeka II
8.6
9:36:45
0:33:00
Simpang Jababeka I
10.5
9:46:02
0:09:17
Simpang Pasirgombang
11.4
9:47:25
0:01:23
Simpang Jababeka Segitaga Mas
11.9
9:48:37
0:01:12
Simpang President University
13.3
9:51:14
0:02:37
Simpang Jl. Simpangan
14.9
9:54:55
0:03:41
Simpang Lemah Abang
15.0
9:56:07
0:01:12
Total
15.0
1:05:07
Source: Kajian lalu lintas pada Simpang(PT. Lippo Cikarang, Tbk, 2010)
3-14
Av.
Speed
(km/h)
23.13
19.79
77.84
41.05
3.09
12.28
39.04
25.00
32.10
26.06
5.00
13.80
Figure 3-5 Survey Route of Travel Speed Survey
Source: Kajian Lalu Lintas Pada Simpang Susun Cibatu, 2010
Although survey result is related to morning peak situation, its average road speed decreases to
around 14 km/h due to several road sections with heavy traffic such as the section near Jababeka
II (3.1km), Jl. Simpangan (5.0km) etc. The surveyed route is only a trunk road connecting
between north and south areas in Cikarang. The adverse effect by traffic jams is considered to
spread over surrounding area because of no alternative roads linking north and south.
3) Traffic volume fluctuation by time
Traffic volume fluctuation by time in Cikarang district is shown in Figure 3-6. The hourly peak
rate for 16 hours, from 6:00AM to 10:00PM, is calculated 10% for single direction and 5% for
both directions. Since this number stands for trips in all purpose, the hourly peak rate might rise
significantly if it is supposed to commuting trips. Accordingly 10% of peak hour rate for both
directions should be conceivable on the planning basis.
3-15
Figure 3-6 Traffic Fluctuation by Time for Weekday
Source: Kajian lalu lintas pada simpang (PT. Lippo Cikarang, Tbk, 2010)
(3) Demand Forecast Model
1) Consideration of transport network in target area and methodology of demand forecast
a) Transport network in target area
Target area is supposed to be an industrial development area which is located at eastern outer rim
of JABODETABEK. Majority of trip generation is considered to be commuting related traffic of
which trip end falls into industrial park zones.
Regarding the transport demand related to industrial park, it is noted that the east Jakarta industrial
area is developed eastward along the Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road and the industrial park site
similar to Cikarang is also established in Karawang regency. Therefore it is necessary to consider
the employment potential in both industrial parks area as well as the demographic potential in
Bekasi city and DKI Jakarta as influential factors to transport demand.
Figure 3-7 is prepared to analyze the regional transport dynamics from viewpoints of demand.
From this figure, followings are pointed out.
3-16
Figure 3-7 Regional and Transport Network Structure Concerning Target Area
Bekasi City
Railway
Cluster of Bekasi
Industrial Estate
JKT-Cikampek Toll
Road
17 Km
Cluster of Karawang
Industrial Estate
Cibarusah
15 Km
Kota Bekasi
1,500 thousand




15 Km
Cikarang
Karawang
554 thousand
450 thousand
Cibarusah
138 thousand
Source: Study Team
Administrative division
←existing population
Bekasi city and Karawang regency are located at approximately 15km from study area,
and their transport condition for commuters are considered to be almost same.
Three area, Cikarang district, Bekasi city and Karawang regency, are connected by trunk
road route and furthermore there is another connection via toll road passing south side of
Cikarang. Beside of connection by road network, there is a railway operation between 3
areas, however it is out of consideration to assume its availability due to its poor service
level. In this study, the completion of railway upgrading project is assumed to be
indispensable.
Looking at the demographic potential of each district in urban vicinity closed to the target
area, Bekasi city shows largest size of population and inter connective relation between
areas seems to have an order, Target area > Bekasi city > Karawang regency.
In Karawang regency, an industrial park cluster as large as that of Cikarang district is
established and thus considerable volume of commuter trips of Karawang regency might
be attracted in the industrial zone of Karawang regency. As a result, it is anticipated that
trips for Cikarang district would decrease.
b) Basic policy of demand forecast
i. General work flow of demand forecast
The demand forecast is carried out according to the following flowchart.
3-17
Figure 3-8 General Flowchart for Demand Forecast
Data analysis on current traffic
Zoning for demand forecast
Existing data
Population density by
housing type
Estimation of population and employees
by zone
JICA
SITRAMP2 Model
Estimation of mass transit trips by zone
Existing data
Existing data
Estimation of trip distribution
Route plan of target system
Trip diversion model
Estimation of number of passengers for
target system
Source: Study Team
ii. Zoning
Traffic zoning is defined according to following table, including 5 internal zones consisting of
target area and 5 external zones.
Table 3-8 Establishment of Zoning
Category
Number
of Zones
Internal
5
External
5
Total
10
Component
(1)East Cikarang (2)North Cikarang (3)South Cikarang (4)Central
Cikarang (5)West Cikarang
(6)Bekasi city (7)Karawang regency (8)Cibarusah district (9)For JKT via
toll road (10) For Cikampek via toll road
Source: Study Team
c) Trip diversion model
Number of passengers for target system is converted from zone based trips, taking into account of
access impedance factor and comparing its merit with that of alternative transport mode.
In this study, it is carried out by following procedure;
i. comparing the total travel time in case of using target system with that for alternative transport
mode (assuming bus as an alternative system).
ii. if the travel time via target system is less than alternative mode, then zone based trip is diverted
to target system.
iii. as the concept image shown in Figure 3-9, assumes the final destination of system ride to be
Cikarang station and compare the time required respectively between path via target system
and path for alternative mode.
Premise of time comparison is as follows:
 Operation speed of target system: 28 km/h (commercial speed)
 Average speed for surface transit including bus: 13.8 km/h
3-18
 Additional waiting time : 5 minutes
Based on the above, trip diversion effect is estimated as following;
i. It might not have advantage to use target system within 3 km.
ii. Trip diversion would occur if its access length to target system is within 1km.
Figure 3-9 Image of Trip Diversion
Travel length by
alternative
transport (bus)
Travel
length by
target
system
Zone
Access
length
from zone
Source: Study Team
(4) Ridership estimation of target system
1) Estimation of population and number of employees by zone
The development for industrial park, including residential estate and other use, is mostly under
progress although a part of development was completed. Therefore the population and number of
employees for objective year should be estimated, taking into consideration of development
progress up to objective year.
a) Population by zone
The future population is estimated by zone, assuming additional population based on the
residential development progress and adding it to existing population.
Regarding the future population development in Cikarang district, this study refers to the housing
estate development master plan prepared by Bekasi government in 2008.
i. Maximum area for residential land use development
The area possible for residential development by zone is determined based on the RDTR (Rencana
Detail Tata Ruang: Detail Spatial Plan) defined in the housing estate development master plan of
Bekasi regency, and the planned development area by respective developer is allocated to relevant
zone subject to the above.
ii. Developed area in objective year
Developed area in objective year is estimated by applying the annual build-up rate obtained from
the past area development result in Jababeka industrial park.
iii. Planned population by residential development
Increased population by residential development is estimated, applying gross population density
by housing type, i.e. low-rise housing, mid & high-rise collective housing, depending on
3-19
respective development scheme by each developer.
iv. Population by zone
Population by zone is calculated by following formula.
Population by zone = existing population × (1 + annual average increase rate for past 5 years) +
additional developed population
Population by zone in objective year is estimated as shown in Table 3-9.
Table 3-9 Population by Zone
(Unit: people/y)
Estimated population in objective year
2019
2030
2048
79,823
138,000
225,000
393,000
173,601
250,000
353,000
498,000
87,969
130,000
187,000
275,000
44,644
86,000
149,000
283,000
168,261
226,000
297,000
366,000
554,298
830,000
1,211,000
1,815,000
Source: Study Team
Existing
population
Zone
East Cikarang
North Cikarang
South Cikarang
Central Cikarang
West Cikarang
Target area total
b) Number of employees by zone
Number of employees by zone is estimated by multiplying the area of industrial park (existing and
planned) with the gross unit number of workers per area (ha). The gross unit number is estimated
to be 111 employees/ ha of gross factory area based on the past result in MM2100 industrial town.
Estimated number of employees by zone is shown in Table 3-10.
Zone
Table 3-10 Number of Employees by Zone
Area to be
Number of
developed (ha)
employees (people)
East Cikarang
0
0
North Cikarang
1,256
139,400
South Cikarang
1,114
123,700
0
0
805
89,400
3,175
352,500
Central Cikarang
West Cikarang
Target area total
Source: Study Team
2) Mass Transit trips by zone
a) Trip generation by inhabitants
Mass transit trip demand for inhabitants is determined by unit trip generation data estimated in
JICA master plan study (SITRAMP2). Referring to Table 3-11, 0.66 is assumed as the average
mass transit trip unit per one inhabitant, summing up the unit trip generation of middle income
group for bus and railway. Trip generation by zone is estimated by multiplying unit trip rate with
population by zone.
3-20
Table 3-11 Unit Trip by Transport Mode per Inhabitant
Income classification
Transport mode
Low
Middle
High
Private cars
0.02
0.08
0.42
Motorbike
0.12
0.27
0.21
Bus
0.39
0.63
0.63
Railway
0.02
0.03
0.05
Others
0.06
0.08
0.06
NMT
0.82
0.56
0.39
Total
1.42
1.65
1.78
All
0.04
0.16
0.45
0.02
0.06
0.75
1.48
Note. Unit modal trip per inhabitants in rural area (including Bekasi regency)
Source: JICA SITRAMP2 (The Study on Integrated Transportation Master Plan for
JABODETABEK in the Republic of Indonesia (Phase2), 2004)
b) Trip production by employees
Assumed the modal share of mass transit by employees is 57.9%, referring to the modal share of
mass transit for Bekasi city in commuters census by BPS, following formula is adopted to
estimate trip production by employees.
Trip production and attraction of employees in industrial estate by zone = number of employees
by zone × 2 (round trips) × 0.579
3) Trip distribution
Regarding the present trip distribution in target area, the traffic study by Lippo Cikarang industrial
estate analyzes current vehicle trip distribution in target area. Although the data show vehicle trips
in peak hour through road side interview survey, this study assumes that the trip distribution for
mass transit resembles it.
Based on the traffic study by Lippo Cikarang industrial estate, present trip distribution is shown as
Table 3-12.
Table 3-12 Present Trip Distribution Generated in Cikarang District
(Unit : vehicle/h)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Total
0
64
77
0
0
16
16
7
323
48
551
1 East Cikarang
45
0
70
0
0
20
25
6
204
30
400
2 North Cikarang
South
Cikarang
77
70
146
0
0
10
29
64
396
58
850
3
0
0
0
0
0
10
197
0
113
77
397
4 Central Cikarang
West
Cikarang
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
16
20
10
10
0
0
0
10
12
2
80
6 Kota Bekasi
Kab.
Karawang
16
25
29
210
0
0
0
25
132
19
456
7
7
6
64
0
0
10
25
0
131
19
262
8 Cibarusah
JKT
via
JI.
Toll
375
182
412
136
0
24
97
120
0
2,228
3,574
9
25
57
72
0
3
13
16
2,200
0
2,437
10 Cikampek via JI. Toll 51
Total
587 392 865 428
0
93
402 248 3,511 2,481 9,007
Source: Kejian lalu lintas pada simpang susun Cibatu 2010
Whether mass transit demand by zone is diverted to target transport system or not depends on its
origin and destination of trips. For the diversion rate of mass transit transport demand by zone,
following assumption is made.
3-21


High diversion rate will be expected when the target system has an advantage such as
shortcut effect for trip interchange pairs.
At initial stage of system operation, diversion rate remains lower due to the uncertainty of
system effectiveness, however it will gradually increase by proving useful performance of
target system.
Based on the assumption above, diversion rate is adopted as shown in Table 3-13.
Table 3-13 Assumption of Trip Diversion Rate by Trip Origin & Destination
Destination
Internal
External zone
zone
(6)Bekasi
(7)Kab.
(9)JKT
(10)Cikampek
Origin
(8)Cibarusah
(1)~(5)
city
Karawang
(Toll R)
(Toll R)
Internal zone
0%
100%
100%
0%
40%~60%
40%~60%
(6)
100%
(7)
100%
(8)
0%
(9)
40%~60%
(10)
40%~60%
Source: Study Team
4) Ridership estimation of target transport system
a) Daily passengers volume
 Applying a trip diversion model, evaluating influential corridor of target system to zones,
explained in previous section, the zonal trip interchanges are converted to number of
passengers on target system.
 Referring to Figure 3-10 which indicates route location of target system and zones, divertible
area of zonal trip is assumed to be corridor with a radius of 1km along the route and diverted
trips are estimated by following formula calculating area proportion.
Number of passengers =Σ{Ti × (Aix/Ai)}
Where;
Ti：Mass transit trips generated in zone i
Aix：Area portion covered by zone i in the corridor of target system
Ai：Area of zone i


Note, however, that the route section within 3 km from starting point of route should be
deducted from above trip divertible area, because zonal trips might not be diverted within
that length of route.
As a result of estimation, daily ridership for target system is obtained by objective year as
shown below.
Table 3-14 Daily Ridership
Year 2019
49,000 passengers/d
Year 2030
69,000 passengers/d
Year 2048
88,000 passengers/d
Source: Study Team

The demand fluctuation by the fare level is next considerations because the fare elasticity is
not analyzed in this study. (Generally, most of demand is the trip of industrial commuters,
thus the fare elasticity is expected to be low.)
3-22
Figure 3-10 Relationship between Zone and Influential Corridor of Target System
Cikarang Utara
Cikarang Barat
Cikarang Timur
Cikarang Selatan
Cikarang Pusat
Source: Study Team
b) Maximum sectional passengers volume in peak hour
It is assumed that all of passengers are concentrated at Cikarang station. Then applying peak
traffic rate described in previous section, maximum sectional passengers volume in peak time is
estimated.
Maximum sectional volume in peak hour = daily passengers volume × 10% (refer to (2)c)
The result is shown in Table 3-15.
Table 3-15 Maximum Sectional Volume in Peak Hour
Year 2019
4,900 PPHPD
Year 2030
6,900 PPHPD
Year 2048
8,800 PPHPD
Source: Study Team
3-23
3.2.3 System Selection
(1) System Selection Background
In this study, a route tying Cikarang station and the industrial park/complex city is proposed, and the
installation of a system which functions as feeder transportation which will fulfill a role as public
transportation for areas along the railway. Further, the route will take on roles of securing a
transportation method for workers, redusing road congestion, and by introducing this transportation
system the division between communities resulting from interference of north-south travel by the
current east-west running Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road acting as a border.
Figure 3-11
Proposal Concept
Realization of commuter route to Cikarang Station
・At present, the employees of
the industrial complex use
commuter buses via the toll
road
・Congestion on the toll road
has become severe, and the
use of railways as a
transportation method in
place of toll road is
extremely appropriate
Proposal: Introduce a public
transportation organization
which ties together Cikarang
station, industrial parks and the
complex city.
・Current Cikarang
district public
transportation is weak
・Feeder transportation
to the railway station
is necessary
Industrial parks/
Complex city
Source: Study Team
The roles required of this transportation system are as follows.
1) Securing of appropriate transport capacity as a feeder transportation system
2) Improvement of public transportation services
3) Reduction of road traffic congestion
4) High punctuality, speediness
5) Securing of safety for passengers
6) Creating harmony with the scenery of the surrounding areas
7) Reduction of noise and other environmental problems
(2) Optimal Transportation System Candidate
Referring to the optimal route proposed in the above-mentioned background and "3.2.1 Route Plan",
the following four types of representative medium capacity systems are compared and examined as
candidates.
 APM
 Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)
 LRT
 Monorail
3-24
An overview and the characteristics of each system are shown in Table 3-16.
Table 3-16 Main Medium Capacity Transport System Characteristics
System
APM
BRT
LRT
Monorail
None,
Guide System
Guide rail
Rail
Track beam
side wall
Operating
System
Support Type
Rubber tire
Rubber tire
Steel wheels
Rubber tire
Track
Dedicated
Dedicated or
Shared
Dedicated or
Shared
Dedicated
PPHPD
3,000~20,000
1,600~5,000
2,000~7,000
3,000~35,000
18～30
28~40
30
50
35
60
0.4~0.8
0.7~1.2
Schedule Speed
20~35
15～22
(km/h)
Minimum Radius
30
10～12
(m)
Operating
Capacity
Maximum
60
60
Gradient (‰)
Distance between
0.7~1.2
0.3~0.5
Stations (km)
*PPHPD: Passengers Per Hour Per Direction
Source: Study Team
Photo 3-2
External Appearance of Vehicles for Each System
APM
BRT
LRT
Monorail
Source: Study Team
3-25
(3) Examination Items
For the previously mentioned four systems comparative examinations are carried out beginning with
whether the system has the operational characteristics suitable for the proposed route, and whether
the system can both meet the transportation requirement demands of the route and is economical,
and each system was compared in technical and social aspects. The optimum transportation system
is selected using the following examination items.





Demand and transportation capacity
Right of way (ROW)
Construction cost
Technical characteristics
Social characteristics
(4) System Selection Candidate Comparison
1) Demand and transportation capacity
The expected future demand for the proposed route are in the year of service commencement
(2019) approximately 49,000 passengers/d, approximately 69,000 passengers/d in 2030 and
approximately 88,000 passengers/d in 2048. The traffic volume between stations during peak
times are expected to be 4,900PPHPD in 2019, 6,900 PPHPD in 2030 and 8,800 PPHPD in 2048.
The BRT system can handle the demand of beginning of the service commencement, but it
becomes difficult to handle the demand after that. The transport capacity of the LRT system is also
unacceptable for the demand after 2048 even though it is appropriate for the demand from the
service commencement until 2030. The transport capacity of the APM and monorail systems
covers the demand from the service commencement to future year. However, a large-type
monorail exceeds the demand of the route, so it can be determined that the transport capacity of a
small-type monorail or APM system is more appropriate.
Figure 3-12
Schedule Speed and Transport Capacity
50
45
Schedule Speed (km/h)
40
35
Monorail
30
MRT(Heavy Rail)
25
APM
20
LRT
BRT
15
10
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
PPHPD (Passengers per hour per direction)
Source: Study Team
3-26
40,000
50,000
2) Right of way
In the LRT system, there are 2 types of vehicles, a low-floor type vehicle which runs on a
dedicated track, and high floor type vehicle which is like a miniaturized conventional rail car. The
former uses a ground level road space and so needs road widening for most section of the route
considering the system introduction. In addition, it is expected that an early realization of the
project is not easy because the involuntary resettlement occurs for the road widening.
As well as the LRT system, it is not realistic to introduce the BRT system which runs on the
ground level due to the land space.
The APM system and monorail are both suitable systems for a whole elevated line because the
sections of road widening are fewer to built piers on the median strip of the road.
3) Construction cost
The LRT and BRT systems have low installation cost merit, however again this merit cannot be
taken advantage of because a whole elevated line is the premise for this proposal.
4) Technical characteristics
The high floor type vehicle LRT which is like a miniaturized general rail car has a bogie truck, so
compared to other systems it is at a disadvantage in terms of the allowable minimum curve radius.
The BRT system differs from the other systems in that the collision avoidance system and other
safety measures depend upon the skill of the driver leaving this system at a disadvantage in terms
of safety.
The APM system offers a high degree of flexibility in adjusting transport capacity for fluctuations
in demand by allowing for changing of vehicle composition and shortening running intervals. In
addition, it is extremely safe because it allows unmanned operation.
With passenger evacuation at the emergency of elevated transport system, the monorail system
which runs on the track beam requires time to wait a rescue train. On the other hand, passengers of
the APM and LRT systems can evacuate to the nearest station by themselves because of a track of
flat concrete running surface.
5) Social characteristics
For the LRT system, when taking into account the potential for extension into future residential
areas, there is the possibility of the characteristic noise of the steel wheels becoming a problem.
The APM, BRT systems and monorail all use rubber tires and so are superior in terms of noise
generation.
The BRT vehicle which assumes a diesel vehicle same as Transjakarta’s vehicle have a negative
impact on the urban environment in terms of air pollution.
The APM system and low-floor vehicle type LRT have superior design which makes them
systems which can exist in harmony with future development along the areas around the railway.
3-27
(5) Evaluation of System Suitability for Proposed Route
As a result of the above study the APM system is proposed as the optimal transportation system
for the project. The construction cost is particularly significant in the evaluation items, thus the
evaluation is weighted. System selection evaluation results are shown in Table 3-17.
System
Table 3-17 Evaluation of System Suitability for Proposed Route
APM
BRT
LRT
Monorail
Demand and Transport capacity
3
0
1
3
ROW
3
1
2
3
Construction Cost
4
6
6
2
Technical Characteristics
3
2
2
2
Social Characteristics
3
1
2
3
comprehensive evaluation
16
-
13
13
Note1) 3:Particularly outstanding for this route. 2: Outstanding for this route 1: Inferior for this
route 0: Difficult for this route
Note2) Evaluation of construction cost is weighted double (score: 0~6).
Source: Study Team
3-28
3.3
Project Plan Overview
3.3.1 Basic Policy about Determination of Project Contents
The basic policy about determination of the project contents is as follows.
(1) Minimization of land acquisition and involuntary resettlement
In the infrastructure improvement in Indonesia, there used to be many cases where involuntary
resettlement pose big problems, and prevent projects from progress. Aiming at early realization of
this project operation, a plan shall be made so that land acquisition and involuntary resettlement may
be minimized. Therefore, right of way of the APM system is made into a road, and a route plan in
which alignment characteristics with a high degree of freedom of the APM system were employed
efficiently is drawn up. Also, a depot shall be assuming the Bekasi Fajar industrial estate are which
is undeveloped areas at present and a plan to adjust with future development planning.
(2) Offer of high mobility services
The APM system of this project is maintained as feeder line traffic which connects Cikarang station
with the complex city and the industrial park. In the area, a plan is made as a whole-elevated-track
structure of high mobility without complicating with road traffic.
(3) Proposal of system of enhanced convenience
In order to plan the APM system's convenience and promotion of utilization of users, a station is
arranged in consideration of the position of customer-attracting facilities, residential areas, factory
entrances, etc., and installed near the crossing so that it is easy to access to the station. Also, the
user-friendly system for weak person concerning traffic, such as not only healthy persons but
children, elderly people, the handicapped, etc., will be proposed.
(4) Proposal of the system in consideration of economical efficiency
In order to improve business feasibility, the system which held down the construction cost as much
as possible will be proposed. It will not be considered superfluous for a station building, but
inexpensive simple design will be planned.
(5) Proposal of scheme with high operation feasibility
PPP scheme with high operation feasibility as operation scheme will be examined and proposed.
Since practical use of soft finance like yen credit is indispensable to early realization of the project,
the covering range will be divided by cases and examined.
3-29
3.3.2 Concept Design
(1) Train Operation Plan
1) Demand
A demand forecast using an operation plan shown in Table 3-18.
Table 3-18 Demand Forecast Results
Forecast Year
2019
2030
2048
No. of passengers per day
49,000
69,000
88,000
Passengers per hour in peak direction (PPHPD)
4,900
6,900
8,800
Source: Study Team
2) Transport Capacity
a) Transport Capacity per Train
The transport capacity per train in 2 car and 4 car formations is shown in Table 3-19 below. The
density of standing passengers was set to 8 people/m2 in accordance with Indonesia's MRT plan.
Train
Formation
Table 3-19 Transport Capacity per Train
Transport Capacity (passengers/train)
Seating
Standing
Total
2 car formation
36
272
308
4 car formation
72
544
616
Source: Study Team
b) Headway and Transportation Capacity
The train formation and operation interval are examined to secure a transport capacity suitable for
the demand.
The route transport capacity for 2 car and 4 car trains at 3 minutes, 4 minutes, 5 minutes, 6
minutes and 12 minutes headway are shown in Table 3-20.
Table 3-20 Transport Capacity (PPHPD)
Headway (min.)
3
4
5
6
12
Train
2 car
6,100
4,600
3,600
3,000
1,500
Formation
4 car
12,200
9,100
7,300
6,000
3,000
Source: Study Team
3) Operation Conditions
a) Service Hours
In order to fulfill a role as a railway feeder, the service hours of the line will be set 17 hours to
from 5:30AM to 10:30PM based on estimates of the workers transit time.
Among this, the morning peak time will be set to the 2 hours from 6AM to 8AM and the evening
rush to the 2 hours from 5PM to 7PM.
3-30
b) Schedule Speed
The train schedule speed is estimated from the average distance between stations, train positive
acceleration and maximum speed. In addition, the route will be installed elevated and separate
from automobile traffic so road traffic will not have an effect on train speed. There are also no
steep grade sections which will affect scheduled speed.
The route length will be 12km, number of stations 13, and dwell time at stations 20 seconds, with
reference to planar curve caused speed loss, the time for the train to make 1 round trip will be 52
minutes and the schedule speed is calculated at 28km/h.
4) Required Number of Vehicles
Route transport capacity will be expanded in 2024 and 2037 to accommodate future demand. The
number of required vehicles is determined from the train formation and headway based on the
transport capacity needed to be provided at each stage.
The trains will be operated in consists of 2 cars from 2019 to 2037 and consists of 4 cars from
2038 onward. The operation interval and required number of vehicles at each stage is as follows.
Table 3-21 Headway and Required number of vehicles
Year
~2024
2025~2037
2038~
Train
Formation
2 car
2 car
4 car
Required Trains
Headway
(min.)
3.5
2.5
4
Operation
Standby
16
2
22
2
14
2
Source: Study Team
3-31
Spare
2
2
1
Required
Number of
Vehicles
Total
40
52
68
(2) Civil Works Facilities
The main construction standards for the proposed APM system are as shown in the following table
with reference to examples installed overseas, etc. The horizontal and vertical alignments of the
proposed route are shown in Figure 3-14 and 3-15.
Table 3-22 Main Construction Standards for the APM System
Item
Specifications
Structure gauge
See Figure 3-13
Curve radius
Main line: R = 50m or more
Side line: R = 30m or more
Branch: R = 30m or more
Station sections: R = 300m or more
Gradient
Main line: 60‰ or less
Depot: 10‰ or less
Track spacing
4.0m or more
Secure spacing which does not obstruct the structure gauge
of upper and lower lines.
Platform
Platform length: 30m (consist length 24m+clearance 5m)
Platform width: Island platform = 3m or more
: Separate platform = 2m or more
Source: Study Team
Figure 3-13
Structure Gauge and Vehicle Gauge
3402
Vehicle Gauge
3676
4004
Structure Gauge
3270
2747
2713
Source: Study Team
3-32
Running Surface
Figure 3-14
Cikarang
station
Horizontal Alignment
No.2
No.4
No.1
No.3
No.5
No.6
No.7
No.8
No.9
No.10
Proposed site
for depot
No.11
No.12
Source: Study Team
No.13
Source: Study Team
3-33
500m
Figure 3-15
Vertical Alignment
Source: Study Team
3-34
1) Civil Engineering Structures
a) Super Structure
A portion of the super structure is based on 30m length PC box girders standard for which there
are previous local examples. Box girders have high torsional stiffness, making them suitable for
sections with sharp curves. In addition, for trapezoidal box girders the box base width can be
shortened so they are excellent for preserving scenery. Steel plate deck girders will be used for the
large span sections which cross the toll road.
b) Supports
Supports will be constructed in the median of the road. The bottom of the elevated structure will
be maintained 5.5m or more above the road. The structure type will generally be RC or steel T
supports.
c) Other
During the detailed design, local detailed surveying, geological surveys and underground
installation surveys will be required. For locations where the road median width is narrow and
supports cannot be constructed, alternate plans will be examined based on survey results. In
addition, the foundation type will be examined based on geological surveys.
2) Typical Cross Section
Figure 3-16
Cross Section of Supports Constructed on Greenbelt
Source: Study Team
3-35
3) Tracks
a) Running Surface
A side guidance method and central guidance method can be considered for the guidance method
for the APM system vehicles.
From a technical standpoint neither of the 2 methods is superior or inferior, however in general for
the side guidance method a side wall is installed, so it is superior in terms of anti-noise measures
and other rail-side environmental considerations.
For the floor structure an open floor structure or closed floor structure can be considered. The
closed floor type is recommended because it provides passengers with a greater sense of security,
can be used as an evacuation route for the running route and also prevents debris from falling to
the road below the tracks.
The proposed system will be side guidance type and closed floor type.
b) Guide Rail
The guide rails are the structural elements that guide the trains and take lateral loads. Guide rails
are installed on both sides of the guideway throughout the system and guide trains laterally via
vehicle-mounted guide wheels. The guide rail components include the guide rail, the base plates
and the mounting hardware. Standard H-shaped hot-dipped galvanized steel beams are used for
the guide rails.
c) Switches
The switching system consists of fixed and moveable U-channel entrapment blades attached to
both sides of the guideway, and powered by an electro-mechanical railroad-type switch machine
and connecting rods.
Trains are guided to the designated guideway by guiding switch wheels on the train with the
moveable blade. Switches are controlled by ATC system, particularly protected by ATP subsystem,
which provides safe train operation.
Photo 3-3
Switches Overview (Sample)
Source: Study Team
d) Overtravel Buffers
An oil damped hydraulic buffer is provided and installed at every guideway terminus. The purpose
of the buffer is to ensure the trains will be brought to a safe and controlled stop in the unlikely
event that they overrun the designated stopping position.
3-36
4) Station Plan
a) Basic Policy
The stations and station facilities for the proposed APM system are planned with reference to the
elementals shown in the following table.
Table 3-23
Item
Passenger Service
Alignment
Conditions
Future Plan
Operation
Management
Station Plan Basic Policy
Summary
1) Distance between stations shall be approximately 1km.
2) At Cikarang station, the station shall be arranged so that APM system can be
transferred to regardless of whether travelling outbound or inbound from the
railway.
3) In locations with large scale customer attracting facilities, the station should
be established near the facilities.
4) For stations which tie to feeders via Angkots etc., stopping zones for the
Angkots shall be designed to be located beneath the station buildings.
1) Station buildings shall in principle be situated in locations with no curved
lines in the alignment.
2) Station buildings (including branch sections where the branch is located
next to the station building) shall be located in locations with no longitudinal
gradients.
1) The terminal station for the industrial park shall be located with
consideration for future expansion.
1) Stations shall be located close to positions where approach tracks connect to
the main line to make entrance and exit to the depot smooth.
Source: Study Team
b) Platform
The representative types for the platform are the island platform and the separate platform and
overviews of each are shown in the table below.
The platform type selection is not affected by the number of station users, so in this study the type
is selected as the island platform or the separate platform for each station based on the station's
usage characteristics and function.
Stations which connect with Cikarang station of the Java main line shall use the separate type
based on the alignment conditions.
3-37
Table 3-24
Platform Type Comparison
Island Platform
Type
Separate Platform
Outline
Drawing
Station
Overall
Width
Station overall width is narrower than
with the separate platform.
Because there is only a single platform,
Passenger customers on both inbound and outbound
Service on lines can be provided service on the same
Platform platform. When placing station staff, the
same staff can handle both directions.
Curved line sections will be inserted
Railway between lines to widen the width just
Alignment before and after the station.
Elevating
Facilities
Facility
Costs
Other
Station overall width is wider than with
the island platform.
Because the platforms are separate for
the different directions, passenger service
must be handled separately.
There is no need for expansion between
lines before and after the station so the
line shape will be straight making for
good lines of sight.
Stairs, elevators and other elevating
facilities are required separate for each
platform.
Because inbound and outbound
passengers are all processes on one
platform, stairs, elevators and other
elevating facilities can be shared.
Costs for stairs, elevators and other
Costs for stairs, escalators and other
elevating facilities are generally smaller
elevating facilities are generally larger
than for the separate platform.
than for the island platform.
Very convenient for eliminating worries
Allows for platform extension and
about making a mistake about the order
establishment of new stations after
of departing trains at terminal stations
commencement of operation without
users .
modifying tracks.
Source: Study Team
c) Station Structures and Facilities
Table 3-25
Item
Basic Structure
Platform Length
Platform Door
Elevator
AFC
Station Structures and Facilities
Summary
The station building will be installed elevated on supports in the
space above the road.
Platform effective length shall be 12m per car, so a length which
allows for operation of 2 car trains will be 30m (12m (vehicle
length)×2 cars (no. of vehicles in 1 train)+5m (clearance)).
Platform doors shall be installed on the platform to ensure user
safety.
Elevators shall be installed at all stations as barrier free measures.
Fare collection shall be handled by automatic ticket vending
machines and automatic gates.
Source: Study Team
3-38
The station location based on the criteria set above is shown in Figure 3-17.
Figure 3-17 Station Location
Station No.1
Jababeka
Industrial Park
Station No.13
MM2100
Industrial Town
Legend
Station：
0
1
2
km
Source: Study Team
3-39
d) Station Location
Table 3-26 shows each station position and station facilities with platform type. The track layout is
shown in Figure 3-18.
Table 3-26
St.
Km
Distance
between
Stations
(m)
Station Location
Platform Type
0k000m
No.1
No.2
730
0k730m
Dead end/ Separate
Island
750
No.3
1k480m
Positioned at entrance of industrial park.
2k430m
Island
Positioned at industrial park
intersection.
Island
intersection.
Island
intersection.
Island
intersection.
940
No.5
3k370m
830
No.6
4k200m
1150
No.7
5k350m
1100
No.8
6k450m
Island
1100
No.9
7k450m
Island
1100
No.10
8k550m
Island
Island
Shall be positioned at intersection close
to IT center in MM2100 industrial town.
Island
9k650m
Island
1100
No.12
No.13
10k750m
11k950m
1200
Has a plan for future development of
commercial complex.
Has a plan for a road to toll road
interchange.
Has a plan for future development of
commercial complex.
Has a plan for toll road interchange.
Shall serve as a node for highway buses.
Has a plan for a surrounding complex
city.
Has a plan for surrounding industrial
complex.
Shall be a transfer station for future
extensions.
Shall be positioned at entrance
intersection to MM2100 industrial town
1100
No.11
Shall radiate out from Cikarang station.
After the completion of the currently in
progress double-double tracking of Java
main line project, the commuter line
eastern end terminal will be the station.
Has a shopping center and local bazaar
and is very lively.
Island
950
No.4
Facilities around Stations
Source: Study Team
3-40
Figure 3-18 Track Layout Sketch
Source: Study Team
e) Station Facilities
Photo 3-4 Station Facilities
Elevated station (Image)
Lifting equipment to the concourse level
(Image) Escalators, stairs
Lifting equipment to the concourse level
(Image) Elevator
Automatic ticket vending (Image)
Automatic ticket gate (Image)
Platform screen door (Image)
Source: Study Team
3-41
f) Connection with Cikarang Station of Java Line
Now, the Cikarang station of the Java main line has a plan which becomes a terminal station by
implementation of "railway electrification and double-double tracking of Java main line project".
In this proposal, it is considered be appropriate to carry out a plan as shown in the following
figure in consideration of connectivity with Cikarang station and the available land space.
Figure 3-19 Connection with Cikarang Station of Java Main Line
(Cross-Section View)
Cikarang station for APM
Source: Study Team
Figure 3-20 Connection with Cikarang Station of Java Main Line
(Plan View)
Source: Study Team
3-42
g) Typical Station
The typical station is elevated with island type over road. The proposed plans for typical station
are as follows.
Figure 3-21
Typical Station (Plan View)
Sidewalk
Island Platform
Center of Track
Sidewalk
Source: Study Team
Figure 3-22
Typical Station (Side View)
Source: Study Team
Figure 3-23
Typical Station (Cross-Section View)
Concourse
5.5m
or more
Source: Study Team
3-43
5) Bill of Quantity for Civil Structures
The bill of quantity for main line structures, station facilities, guideway rails, switches and a
depot is shown in Table 3-27.
Table 3-27
Structures
Main Line
Station
Guideway
Rail
Switches
Depot
Bill of Quantity
Items
Unit
Quantity
PC-BOX Girder
beams
382
RC pier
girders
400
Steel Box Girder (2 spans)
girders
1
Typical Station
stations
10
Terminal and Connecting Station
stations
3
Main Line
m
24,000
Depot
m
3,900
Main Line
set
11
Depot
set
Foundation Improvement (Cement)
3
Building and
Facility
OCC
Maintenance Facility
Road and Planting, etc.
Source: Study Team
3-44
22
3
10 × m
144
m2
8,400
2
3,000
set
1
m
(3) E&M System
1) Power Distribution System (PDS)
a) Power Distribution Equipment
The power for Cikarang's APM system can be provided from the public power company PT PLN
substation (SS) nearby. In addition, the private power company PT Cikarang Listrindo has a
1,000MW class power plant (PP) along the Jababeka industrial park main line and it has been
determined that power could also be provided from here.
In Figure 3-24 the positions of the substation and power plant in the area of the APM system are
shown, and Table 3-28 shows the transformation capacity for each.
Figure 3-24
Position of Substation and Power Plants in the Area around APM System
PLT SS (Jababeka)
Listrindo PP
PLT SS (Lippo)
PLT SS (Cibatu)
Source: Study Team
Table 3-28 Surrounding Substation Capacity
No.
Substation
Capacity
1
Jababeka
60MW×3unit
2
Lippo
60MW×3unit
3
Cibatu
60MW×2unit
Source: Study Team
At each of PT PLN's substations, AC150kV is received from overhead high voltage power
transmission lines and stepped down to AC20kV. For the APM power distribution system, power
is supplied from here to APM to the Jakabeka industrial park and Lippo Cikarang industrial estate
APM receiving substations via the main line and auxiliary line. From these receiving substations
AC20kV is distributed to each feeding substation and station electrical room in a 2 systems
interconnection method.
At the feeding substations, AC20kV is rectified to DC750V and then provided as power for APM
operation to the depot along the main line.
Power for annex equipment is distributed to on-site equipment after the AC20kV received by the
power rooms of each station and depot is stepped down to AC400V/200V by on premises
transformers.
3-45
Figure 3-25
Power System Diagram of Cikarang APM System
AC20kV
from PT PLN(Jababeka)
(MOF:Metering Out Fit)
Staion
Rectifier　(kVA)
Auxiliary Power
(kVA)
No.1
2,000×2
1,600×2
No.2
630×2
MOF
No.3
2,000×2
630×2
MOF
No.5
2,000×2
630×2
No.4
630×2
No6
630×2
No.7
2,000×2
630×2
AC20kV
from PT PLN(Lippo)
MOF
MOF
AC20kV
Staion
Rectifier　(kVA)
Auxiliary Power
(kVA)
No.8
630×2
No.9
2,000×2
630×2
No.10
630×2
Depot
2,000×2
1,600×2＋2,000
No.11
2,000×2
630×2
No.12
630×2
No.13
2,000×2
630×2
Source: Study Team
b) Traction Power
Each substation is arranged in a double ring redundant configuration. There are two fully rated
heavy duty traction transformers capable of continuous operation for the proposed design. The
input switchgear arrangement permits either transformer to be connected to either primary feed,
thereby providing 100% redundancy. These are also interlocked to prevent parallel operation of
the transformers. The output DC750V breaker prevents back feeding of the transformer by the
DC750V bus. With this configuration, no single-point failure can cause a prolonged interruption
of traction power to the power rails.
3-46
c) Backup Power Supply
The Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS) provides power in the event that primary power is not
available.
The UPS provides backup power for the following systems:
 ATC system including central control facility
 PDS control power
 Communications equipment (CCTV, public address, emergency phone, radio, dynamic
sign)
 Emergency lighting
 Safety and security system
 Data communication, transmission system
 Switch machines
The UPS equipment uses sealed gel cell batteries. AC input is the power source to charge the
batteries. A solid state inverter converts the battery power to AC output.
The performance of the UPS is continually monitored and alarms are annunciated if necessary.
d) Power Rail
Traction power is supplied to the vehicle through positive and negative power rails installed along
the guideway. See Photo 3-5 for sample power rail installation from other APM project.
Propulsion power cables connect each segment of the power rails on the guideway to the DC750V
bus via a secondary circuit breaker. The traction power is collected by two sets of vehicle-borne
power collectors from two rigid, side contact power rails mounted on the guideway.
The power rails consist of the followings:
 Power rails with aluminium and stainless steel composite construction
 Mounting devices to clamp the power rails in both the vertical and lateral directions and to
resist the vehicle dynamic loads and forces generated during short circuits
 Mounting bracket and the anchoring mechanism
 Thermal expansion joints
 End approaches
Photo 3-5 Power Rail (Sample)
Source: Study Team
3-47
2) Automatic Train Control (ATC) System
a) Overview
Cikarang APM system encompasses three major second-tier subsystems under the
communications based train control (CBTC):



Automatic train protection (ATP) subsystem, which provides all safety-critical control
functions.
Automatic train operation (ATO) subsystem, which provides all automatic-mode train
operations functions, subject to the constraints imposed by the ATP.
Automatic train supervision (ATS) subsystem, which monitors system status and overall
operation, manages the system communications interface, handles system alarms, data
recording and logging function, and provides human-machine interface of central control.
Human interface for ATC system is provided in central control facility (CCF), where the operators
can monitor and control the system through ATS. CCF also provides human interface for
communication system and PDS.
Photo 3-6
Central Control Facility (Sample)
Source: Study Team
b) ATP Subsystem
ATP subsystem includes the following functions.














Presence Detection
Separation Assurance
Unintentional Motion Detection
Overspeed Protection
Overtravel Protection
Parted Consist Protection
Lost Signal Protection
Zero Speed Detection
Unscheduled Door Opening Protection
Door Control Protection Interlocks
Departure Interlocks
Direction Reversal Interlocks
Propulsion and Braking Interlocks
Guideway Switch Interlocks
3-48
ATP functions have precedence over both the ATO and ATS functions.
c) ATO Subsystem
ATO subsystem includes the following functions.



Motion Control
Programmed Station Stop
Door and Dwell-Time Control
d) ATS Subsystem
ATS subsystem includes the following functions.


Status and Performance Monitoring
Performance Control and Override
3) Communication System
a) Overview
The communication system consists of a wide array of communications devices, including:





Public Address
Vehicle Voice and Communications
Video Surveillance
Radio Communications
Data Transmissions
b) Public Address Subsystem
The public address subsystem is provided at all stations. It enables the central control operator to
make direct announcements and initiate automatic, digitally pre-recorded announcements to any
selected stations. The pre-recorded messages are playable either repetitively or selectively.
c) Vehicle Voice Communication Subsystem
A full-duplex communications subsystem is provided to permit two-way voice communications
between central control facility and each train.
Activation (and termination once established) of the two-way voice link is only possible from
central control facility. Each passenger-initiated communication request from a vehicle is tagged
with the vehicle identification number, and automatically displayed at the central control facility.
The display also shows any queue of such communication requests.
The central control operator is able to activate this link upon receiving an indication of the
passenger-initiated communication request at the central control, or at any time the central control
operator deems it necessary to receive communications from a vehicle.
A train public address subsystem is provided for the central control operator to make direct live
announcements and to initiate pre-recorded announcements, and for the ATS subsystem to make
pre-recorded announcements on any selected trains.
d) Video Surveillance Subsystem
CCTV system is provided for monitoring passengers and vehicle doors at platform of all stations,
M&SF vehicle storage areas in the system. This system consists of the cameras, monitors, video
3-49
recorders, controller, switching / sequencing hardware and fiber and coaxial cable network.
All the video data are transmitted to central control through wayside cable for monitoring at
central control facility.
e) Radio Communication Subsystem
A half-duplex radio system provides operations and maintenance personnel within and along the
system with communication means with central control.
f) Data Transmission Subsystem
Transmission subsystem transmits audio, visual and data for various communication subsystems.
The transmission link is configured so that a single point failure will not disrupt the transmission
subsystem by switching to the alternative path upon failure.
(4) Vehicle
1) General
The vehicle is a 2-car married-type vehicle. All vehicles are identical and can be operated on the
entire guideway, including the option line. Although a single married-pair vehicle will be operated
as a train, multiple vehicles can be coupled together using automatic couplers on both ends of
vehicles for emergency rescue case. See Photo 3-7 for the overview of a sample vehicle from
other APM project.
The car body is a welded design with aluminium alloy extrusions and panels in order to reduce
weight and minimize energy consumption. The exterior appearance is modern with clean-lines and
will incorporate an aerodynamic end cap at each vehicle end.
These production vehicles have been designed to install a sense of confidence in the passengers
and convey an image consistent with this technology and its design. The vehicle has smooth lines,
a unique diamond shape and an entirely modern interior.
Photo 3-7
APM Vehicle (Sample)
Source: Study Team
The vehicles are normally operated in automatic mode without drivers. The vehicle can also be
operated by a driver in manual mode.
3-50
2) Vehicle Type and Specifications
a) Key parameters
The key parameters and configuration for the vehicle are shown in Tables 3-29 and Figure 3-26.
Table 3-29
Key Parameters
Configuration
2-Car Vehicle (Married Pair)
Length
Approx.24 m
Width
Approx.2.7 m
Height
Approx.3.6 m
Weight (without passengers)
34 t
Weight (maximum)
52.5 t
2
Capacity (@ 8persons/m )
308 passengers
Maximum Operation Speed
80 km/h
Source: Study Team
b) On-Board Command, Control and Communication System
Following on-board command, control and communication system equipment is installed.
 ATP/ATO controller
 Vehicle communication Controller
 Dynamic sign
 Speaker
 Intercom
 Manual operation panel
 Etc.
3-51
Figure 3-26
Vehicle Overview
Source: Study Team
3-52
(5) Depot Plan
1) Depot Overview
The APM system depot shall have vehicle stabling facilities, vehicle and system maintenance
management facilities and general administration office installed in order for the safe operation
and maintenance management of the APM system.
2) Depot Arrangement
Figure 3-27
Depot Location
Depot
0
1
2
km
Source: Study Team
On the proposed route, the area of the Bekasi Fajar industrial estate where is planned site is only
undeveloped. Therefore, the depot location will be proposed in the Bekasi Fajar industrial estate
area and arranged with the future estate plans.
3) Depot Area
The facilities required for the initial stages of the APM system are installed in the depot however,
it is being planned for an area which can accommodate the number of vehicles expected for future
expansion in the future final stages of the APM system.
The depot area is planned at length 400m, width 180m, area 7.20 ha matching the industrial park
lot.
4) Depot Functions
The main functions of the depot are as follows.
a) Stabling facility: stabling track for vehicles outside of APM system operating times.
b) Inspection and maintenance facility: Facility for inspection and maintenance of APM system
vehicles.
3-53
c) General control building: General administration office which includes a system operation
office and operation control room.
d) Substation: For provision of a power source for main line and depot operating power, other
various power and lighting.
e) Maintenance vehicle stabling track: Stabling track for maintenance vehicles which carry out
route, structure and electrical facility inspections and maintenance.
f) Vehicle washing facility: Vehicle cleaning and vehicle washing facility
g) Other: Drainage treatment facilities, warehousing, oil storage, etc.
5) Depot Layout
The APM system track will be installed aboveground inside the depot. The stabling track and
inspection and maintenance track are kept level for stopping and parking of vehicles and tracks
are straight for inspection of vehicles.
The depot layout is shown in Figure 3-28.
Figure 3-28
Depot Layout
390000
Test Track
Maintenance Track
Shunting Track
Washer Track
Workshop
170000
Maintenance Vehicle Track
Maintenance Bldg.
Stabling Track
Future Extension
Departure Test Track
Source: Study Team
6) Function and Roles of Each Track
a) Train ready / receiving track (2 tracks)
The approach track will be a track separate from the main line which connects to the depot. The
entrance to the depot shall be a downgrade from ground level. The maximum gradient for the
approach track shall be 60‰. The approach track shall have multiple tracks for safety purposes.
b) Departure test track (2 tracks)
A departure inspection track will be located on a straight, flat section of track which connects to
the approach track for inspections of vehicles during departure.
c) Stabling Track (8 tracks)
A stabling track will be installed so that APM system vehicles can be stabled in the depot. In the
initial stages a 4 track stable track will be installed with 4 additional tracks to be installed in the
3-54
future when there is an increased need due to an increased number of vehicles.
Other than the stabling track, considerations will be made for stabling vehicles on the following
tracks as well.




Light maintenance track (2 tracks) -8 trains (16 cars)
Heavy maintenance track (1 track) -4 trains (8 cars)
Unschedule maintenance track (1 track) -2 trains (4 cars)
Departure test track (2 tracks) -4 trains (8 cars)
d) Washer track (1 track)
A vehicle washing machine will be installed on the washer track and used to wash vehicles.
Vehicle interior cleaning will be carried out on the stabling track.
e) Test Track (1 track)
The periphery of the depot will be used for test runs of vehicles after maintenance. The length
shall be approximately 350m.
f) Shunting track
Shunting tracks will be installed to allow for movement of vehicles within the depot. Vehicles
shall not be stabled on these tracks.
g) Stabling track for maintenance vehicles (1 track)
A track for stabling maintenance vehicles (construction vehicles) which carry out maintenance and
management of tracks and the APM system will be installed.
7) Vehicle Stabling Plan
The depot interior vehicle stabling plan is shown in Figure 3-29.
Figure 3-29
Vehicle Stabling Plan
170000
390000
将来Extension
計画
Future
王
Source: Study Team
3-55
8) Repair Plant Inspection and Maintenance Track and Inspection and Maintenance Frequency
a) Light maintenance track (2 tracks)
Track for carrying out train inspections (every 3 days), monthly inspections (every 3 months) and
other daily maintenance.
b) Heavy maintenance track (1 track)
Track for carrying out heavy overhauls (every year, every 3 years) and general overhauls (every 6
years).
c) Unschedule maintenance track (1 track)
Track for carrying out repair and inspection of parts of vehicles or entire vehicles at any time as
needed in the event of the following.

When vehicles are manufactured or purchased.

When a crash or large-scale accident occurs.

When large-scale reconstruction or repair is carried out.
9) Depot Inspection Facilities
Typical main tool and equipment are shown in Table 3-30.
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Table 3-30 Typical Main Tool and Equipment
Description
Quantity
Train Washer
1
Lifting Jacks, 6 t
4 sets
Bogie Stand
8
Body Stand
4 sets
Gantry Crane
1
Umbilical Power Cable (Stinger)
8 sets
Wheel Tire Changer
1
Forklift
2
Mobile Lift Table
2
Source: Study Team
10) General Control Building
An operation control center (OCC) which carries out operation management of vehicles on all
APM system lines and within the depot and various offices for management and maintenance
management division and other required facilities.
11) Other Facilities
1) Receiving substation
2) Warehouse, oil storage
3) Drainage treatment facility
4) Emergency garage
5) Other
12) Depot Operation Mode
Operation is carried out automatically for vehicles in the depot stabling track zone, operation is
carried out by drivers for departure from and arrival to inspection and repair plants. Inside
3-56
inspection and repair plants power is provided through the installed power cables (stingers).
(6) Operation Planning
1) Operation Organization
Since the operation organization of Cikarang APM serves as the first APM system introduction in
Indonesia, it will be set up referencing the organization system of the APM system with
performances. APM operation organization proposal based on the example in Japan is shown in
Figure 3-30.
Figure 3-30 Proposed Organization
Board Member
General Affairs Dept.
General Affairs Div.
Accounting Div.
Maintenance Dept.
Engineering Div.
E Engineer’g Div.
Rolling Stock Div.
Operation Dept.
Train Operation Div.
Station Div.
Source: Study Team
2) Required Number of Staff
Since the operation organization of Cikarang APM serves as the first APM system introduction in
Indonesia, it will be set up referencing the operation organization of the APM system with
performances. APM operation organization proposal based on the example in Japan is shown in
Table 3-31.
Table 3-31
Duty
Board Member
Head
Office
Staff
Field
Operation
GA
Operation
Engineering
E. Engineer’s
Rolling Stock
Sub Total
Engineering
E. Engineer’s
Rolling Stock
Station Staff
Train Operation
Sub Total
Total
Required Number of Staff
Number of Staff
Note
3
15% of Head Office
4
3
2
2
3
14
15% of Field Operation
11
0.9 people per 1 operation km
10
0.8 people per 1 operation km
10
0.25 people per 1 car
55
4.2 people per a station
10
3(on duty)×2.5(shift)×1.3(spare)
96
113
Source: Study Team
3) Education and training
3-57
a) Since it is the first time for Indonesia to introduce the APM system, education and training
of the personnel is indispensable.
b) It is necessary to carry out education and training of the personnel before commencement of
operation for smooth operating management. Also, it is necessary to create an education and
training manual before education and training implementation.
c) Instructors shall be about 5 to 10 foreigners of operating companies with track records.
After commencement of operation the instructors shall continue the personnel's education
and training as the management, and maintain safe and smooth management organization.
d) The personnel strive for improvement in technologic abilities, receiving instructor's
education at the workplace (OJT) from the preparatory step before commencement of
operation, and get opportunities to receive more practical education and training.
3-58
Chapter 4
Evaluation of Environmental and Social Impacts
4.1
Analysis on Present Environmental and Social Status
4.1.1 Business Characteristics
In this project, it is planned to introduce a APM system in Cikarang district, which is located
approximate 30km east of the Jakarta metropolitan region in Indonesia. This system will connect
Cikarang station, Jababeka industrial park and the MM2100 industrial town, along with future
capacity increases in commuter transportation of the Java main line.
With this APM system, noise and vibration levels and exhaust gas emissions are low. This system is
an environmentally friendly public transportation system since its impact on the environment is
small, compared with that of automobiles.
In particular, the following advantages can be achieved by the introduction of this APM system.
•
Improvement of convenience for visitors/commuters to the introduced area
•
Savings in commuting time and a reduction in traffic delays
•
Reduction of greenhouse gases produced by automobiles with the conversion from buses, cars,
motorcycles to the APM system
•
Regional economic revitalization
•
Resolution of road congestion and a reduction of traffic accidents
•
Direct and indirect job creation
4.1.2 Present Status of the Project Area
Road traffic conditions in the Cikarang district are quite poor, causing chronic traffic congestion
throughout the city. Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road passes east to west through almost the center of
Cikarang district. At present, the district is divided into north and south regions by this road. Roads
running across this toll road are very few and enough width is not secured. At present, JICA is
implementing a local road improvement plan with the aim of smoothing traffic flow. However, the
development of industrial parks has been promoted at the same time, and in addition, the
development of complex city has also been promoted as a future plan. This situation is causing a
concentration of commuters and logistics into this district. Considering this situation, it seems
difficult to resolve traffic congestion only by road improvement.
The planned route of the APM system has its railhead at Cikarang station of the Java main line
where double-double track development and electrification is expected in the future, and reaches the
MM2100 industrial town through the Jababeka industrial park and Bekasi Fajar industrial estate. Its
length is approximately 12km. Relatively low-rise housing and small scale commercial facilities are
located between Cikarang station and the Jababeka industrial park. On the other hand, large scale
factories are concentrated in the Jababeka industrial park and MM2100 industrial town. Bekasi Fajar
district, located between the Jababeka industrial park and MM2100 industrial town, south of the toll
road, is currently undeveloped but is expected to be developed with industrial parks and commercial
facilities in the future.
4.1.3 Natural Environment
(1) Air Pollution
With Cikarang district, passenger vehicles and large size freight vehicles have rapidly increased the
result of population growth and industrial park development in recent years. Air pollution caused by
exhaust gas emissions from these increasing vehicles is becoming more serious year by year. Leaded
gasoline is generally used for fuel and old vehicles without emission controls are often used.
Considering this situation, it is a concern that exhaust gasses from such vehicles may cause health
hazards.
4-1
(2) Noise/Vibration
As with air pollution, noise and vibration from the concentration of vehicle traffic also causes
significant impacts on the urban environment.
(3) Waste Treatment
Waste treatment is becoming a serious environmental problem in the Jakarta metropolitan region
including at the project site. Wastes are categorized into hazardous wastes and other wastes in
Indonesia. Other wastes are treated by landfilling or incineration. But at landfill areas, wastes are
generally just stored without a soil covering. Such wastes leach into neighboring areas and
sometimes cause water pollution indirectly.
(4) Topography/Geological Features
The project area is of relatively flat terrain. Geologically it features soft ground of clay and silt layers,
which in turn mainly consist of sand and conglomerate.
4.1.4 Social Environment
(1) Population
Table 4-1 shows the population surrounding the project area. The planned route passes the relatively
large population areas of North Cikarang, South Cikarang and West Cikarang.
Table 4-1
District
East Cikarang
Population and Population Density by District
Population
Population Density
Area (km2)
(person)
(person/km2)
79,823
51
1,565
North Cikarang
173,601
43
4,037
South Cikarang
87,969
52
1,691
Central Cikarang
44,644
48
930
West Cikarang
168,261
54
3,116
Total
554,298
248
2,235
Source: Study Team
(2) Land Use
In the project area, existing small residences and a shopping mall are located nearby Cikarang station.
On the other hand, large scale industrial parks are located in southern area. On the northern side of
Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road, the Jababeka Industrial park is located and on the southern side, across
the toll road, the MM2100 industrial town is located. From east of the Jababeka industrial park to the
Deltamas city area, located southeast of the industrial park, is the area under development as a
complex city.
4.1.5 Future Forecast (case without implementation of this project)
One of the objectives of this project is urban environment protection by emission control to be
achieved by a modal shift commuters to the industrial parks, visitors to the complex facilities and
people moving within the district have used conventional transportation such as buses, vehicles,
motorcycles etc.
In case of no implementation of this project, traffic flows in and out of the district will increase by
the development of industrial parks and complex cities. The road traffic situation is estimated to
become more serious. Difficult road traffic conditions will cause difficulty in maintaining smooth
4-2
urban functions. Finally, economic activities will be also obstructed. In this district, many Japanese
companies are conducting business. If the road traffic congestion becomes serious, such companies
will also be negatively affected. In order to avoid negative impacts on industrial activities and secure
a convenient civic life, a rail transport system is required to be introduced rather than a road based
system.
4-3
4.2
Environmental Improvement Effect by the Project
The modal shift of passengers from using buses, vehicles and motorcycles to the APM system can be
expected by introduction of the APM system in Cikarang district. In this section, reduction levels of
greenhouse gas is reviewed as the environmental improvement to be achieved by the implementation
of the project.
4.2.1 Method of Review
In order to quantitatively assess the effect of the project on global warming, carbon dioxide (CO 2),
which has been selected from a number of greenhouse gases, is focused on. CO 2 reduction is
calculated based on reduced vehicle transportation by the introduction of the APM system. On the
other hand, electricity shall be used for operation of the APM system and CO2 is also produced
during the electricity generation process. Therefore it is necessary that such CO 2 production be
deducted from CO2 reduction by the modal shift from vehicle transportation to the APM system as a
calculation of total reduction to be achieved by the project. CO 2 reduction from such a calculation
shall be used for the assessment of the effect of this project on global warming.
4.2.2 Traffic Volume Converted from Automobiles to the APM System
Based on the estimation result of the future demand of the APM system reviewed in “Chapter 3,
3.2.2 Demand Forecast”, the converted traffic volume from bus to the APM system is shown in
Table 4-2. Average trip distance is assumed as 8km (set to 2/3 of whole length of 12km), annual
working days are assumed as 330 days and average bus passengers are assumed as 30
persons/vehicle.
Table 4-2
Year
Converted and Reduced Volume of Bus traffic
Passengers
（person/d）
Converted Volume
(passenger-km/y)
Reduced Volume
(vehicle-km/y)
2019
42,000
110,880,000
3,696,000
2030
65,000
171,600,000
5,720,000
2048
87,000
229,680,000
7,656,000
Source: Study Team
4.2.3 CO2 Reduction
(1) Reduction in CO2 emissions of the bus
CO2 reduction of the bus is calculated by the following formula. The calculation results are show in
Table 4-3.
CO2 reduction = total distance reduction (vehicle-km) ÷ Fuel consumption rate (km/liter/vehicle) ×
CO2 emission factor
•
Fuel consumption rate (km/liter/vehicle): 3.45 (Source: Statistical Yearbook of Motor Vehicle
Transport 2008 (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism))
•
CO2 emission factor of diesel oil (kg CO2/liter): 2.624 (Source: Guidelines for Calculating
Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Business (Ministry of the Environment))
4-4
Table 4-3 CO2 Reduction Volume of the Bus
(Unit: t- CO2/y)
Year
CO2
2019
2,811
~2030
42,966
~2048
134,523
Source: Study Team
(2) CO2 Emissions by Operation of the APM System
CO2 emission by operation of the APM system is calculated by the following formula as shown in
Table 4-4.
CO2 emission by operation of the APM system = Electricity consumption per passenger-km × annual
traffic volume (passenger-km) × CO2 emissions basic unit
•
Electricity consumption per passenger-km (kWh/passenger-km): 0.0175 (Source: National
Traffic Safety and Environment Laboratory)
•
CO2 emissions basic unit (kg-CO2kWh): 0.808
Table 4-4 CO2 Reduction Volume of the APM system
(Unit: t- CO2/y)
Year
Emission Volume
2019
1,568
~2030
23,964
~2048
58,008
Source: Study Team
*) Indonesia’s annual energy production: 112,926GWh (ENERGY BALANCES OF NON-OECD
COUNTRIES 2005 Edition)
Indonesia’s fossil fuel consumption for power generation (crude oil conversion kilotonne): Coal
14,143, Petroleum 7,033, Natural gas 4,635 (Revised 1996 IPCC Guideline)
Base unit of calorific value (Terajoule/kilotonne): 42.62 (Revised 1996 IPCC Guideline)
Carbon emissions per unit calorific value (t-C/Terajoule): Coal 25.8, Petroleum 21.1, Natural gas
15.3 (Revised 1996 IPCC Guideline)
CO2 conversion factor (molar weight): 44/12
CO2 emissions basic unit (kg-CO2kWh): 0.808
As shown above, CO2 reduction by this project is estimated as 1,243 t-CO2/y in the year 2019,
19,002 t-CO2/y until the year 2030 and 76,515 t-CO2/y until the year 2048. This means that this
project is regarded as contributing to a reduction in greenhouse gases.
4.2.4 Possibility to Apply CDM
Since 1999, the Ministry of the Environment has implemented the supporting program for
“Pre-Feasibility Study (Pre-F/S) to consider/assess the potential business to apply CDM or JI
schemes”. But studies on rail transport systems such as the APM system had not been conducted
until 2010. In the transportation sector, such schemes have been applied to improvement of vehicles
such as installation of idling braking devices for route buses and new engine replacement.
4-5
The calculation period for CDM effect (credit period) is limited to 10 years. Rail transport systems
costs much compared with other sectors and have some problems with profitability. This is estimated
as one of the reasons why CDM is difficult to apply to transportation systems. Annual average CO 2
reduction by this project is 2,550t (=76,515/30) until the year 2048.
“According to Nikkei-JBIC Carbon Quotation trading”, published in August 2011, emission trading
price is 860.2 yen/t and trading price of this project can be calculated as approximate 2.2 million
yen/y. Considering its profitability, it seems difficult to apply CDM scheme to this project.
4-6
4.3
Environmental Impact by the Project Implementation
4.3.1 Identification of Environmental and Social Impact
Items which are supposed to effect environmental and social aspects by this project are identified
based on Environmental Check List (railway) in JICA Guidelines as shown in Table 4-5.
Matters requiring special consideration, requiring explanation to obtain understanding by residents
and requiring coordination with related institutions are shown as follows.
(1) Involuntary Resettlement
In this project, the best suited route was drafted, using existing roads as introducing space with
consideration for linear characteristics of the APM system so as to minimize involuntary
resettlement. However, at the access to Cikarang station, the entrance to the Jababeka industrial park
and at part of northern area along the Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road, involuntary resettlement of
existing residences is not avoidable. At present, this is in the stage of initial environmental survey
and detailed residences required for involuntary resettlement are unclear. But it is estimated that
involuntary resettlement and acquisition of approximated 30 existing residences and approximated
67,200m2 (including approximated 27,000m2 of undeveloped area).
In principle, with involuntary resettlement, consent of the residents is required. It is important to
implement such resettlement with the resettlement plan following involuntary resettlement
procedures in order to avoid disadvantages for relocated residents.
(2) Radio Disturbance related to Livelihood
The APM system is a wholly elevated line therefore Radio Disturbance caused by an elevated
structure is considerable. But it is difficult to clarify the specific locations and scales at this initial
environment study stage. It is necessary to consider some countermeasures, including installment of
a common antenna in the harmed areas, at the detailed design stage.
(3) Impact during Construction
In this project, environmental pollution such as noise/vibration occurrence by piling works and
exhaust gas from heavy equipment is considerable. It is necessary to consider mitigation measures at
the construction planning stage.
In addition, restriction of existing roads will possibly cause traffic congestion because the APM
system will be installed in the space currently occupied by roads. It is necessary to understand road
conditions of the surrounding areas when planning for the delivery and installing of materials before
construction. In order to minimize the impact, delivery of materials at night time, indication of
detour roads and etc. shall be required. Such mitigation plans shall be understood by related
authorities with an explanation in advance.
(4) Tree Cutting and transplanting
Some sections of road in industrial parks, proposed as part of the route of the APM system, have
trees in the median dividers which are to be used as the installation space. Such trees shall be cut or
transplanted. They can be transplanted under elevated sections or other places as a mitigation
measure after construction of elevated structures. It is required to consider how to secure green areas
for the project as a whole.
4-7
Table 4-5 Check List of JICA Guideline for Environmental Study
Classification
Environment
item
1 Approval and Explanation
(1) EIA and
environmental
approval
(2) Explanation
to local
stakeholders
(3) Examination
of alternatives
Main Matters to be Checked
Yes:Y
No:N
Concrete environmental social
consideration
(Reasons why of Yes/No, basis,
relief measures, etc.)
(a) Have the environmental
assessment evaluation reports
(EIA report) been completed?
(b) Is the EIA report approved
by
the
interested-state
governments?
(c) Is approval of the EIA
report etc. accompanied by
collateral conditions? Are the
conditions fulfilled when
there are the collateral
conditions?
(d) When required in addition
to the above, has permission
and approval about the
environment been obtained
from the local competent
authorities?
(a)
Was
appropriate
explanation to the local
stakeholders
including
information disclosure given,
and an understanding about
the contents and impacts of
the project obtained?
(b) Were the comments from
residents etc. reflected in the
contents of the project?
(a)N
(b)N
(c)N
(d)N
(a)(b)(c) Environmental audit
document is necessary to be
drawn up from now on.
(d) There is no permit approval on
environment other than EIA.
(a)N
(b)N
(a) Were multiple alternatives
of the project plan examined
(including items related to the
environment and society)?
(a)Y
(a) The project summary was
explained to the industrial park
authorized personnel involved in
MM2100
industrial
town,
Jababeka industrial park, and
who can be local stakeholders,
and support of information service
etc. has been obtained. However,
this is in the situation in the initial
stage of project formulation, and it
is necessary to explain it to the
local stakeholders and obtain an
understanding with development
of in-depth official research from
now on.
(b) At present, meetings to explain
to local residents etc. are not
carried out. It is necessary to carry
out meetings to explain to local
residents etc. from now on, and to
reflect them in the project.
(a)
Examination
with
the
alternative plans is underway
about the acquisition scale in
examination of the route proposal.
4-8
2 Pollution Measures
(1) Water
quality
(a) Does the water quality of a
downstream
water
area
deteriorate by the soil runoff
from topsoil outcrops, such as
the bank and the cut earth?
(b) Is the drainage from a
station or a vehicle base
consistent with the effluent
standard of interested states,
etc.? Also, are water areas,
which are not consistent with
the environmental standards
of
interested
states,
generated?
(a)N
(b)N
(2) Waste
substances
(a) Is the waste substance
from the station or the vehicle
base processed and disposed
of appropriately according to
the regulations of interested
states?
(a)Y
(3) Noise and
vibration
(a) Is the noise and vibration
by the railroad consistent with
the standards of interested
states, etc.?
(a)Y
(4) Subsidence
of ground
(a) Is there is a possibility that
subsidence of ground may
arise, by a lot of ground-water
pumping
(especially
underground)?
(a)N
4-9
(a) It will not get worse. The
project site is at a flat area, and
since the whole track of the APM
system is an elevated-line
structure, there is almost no
banking or earth-cutting part, and
as such the soil runoff is not
generated.
(b) In the sewage treatment of a
station, or sewage treatment in the
vehicle base and the unnecessary
oil processing for maintenance
check, sufficient consideration is
required and cautions for the
leakage from the waste substance
storage warehouse is needed.
(a) The waste substances in the
station are cans, bottles, plastic
bottles, magazines, tickets, etc.,
and the waste substances of the
vehicle base can be oil, worn
parts, etc. It is necessary to
process appropriately according to
the Indonesian waste disposal
regulations.
(a) The APM system is a system
with low noise and vibration and
considered to be satisfactory. The
modal shift from road traffic to the
APM system is expected, and it
should contribute to mitigate noise
and vibration by facilitation of
road traffic. After the APM system
begins operation it will be
necessary to monitor noise and
vibration, and report the results to
the authorities, such as the local
environment, periodically.
(a) In order to build a APM
system of whole-elevated-line
structure, earthwork is performed
at the time of basic construction of
a civil engineering structure, but
there are little possibility that
subsidence of ground by the
pumping of ground water will
arise.
3 Natural Environment
(1) Protected
region
(a) Is the site located in a
protected area provided for in
law, international treaties, etc.
of interested states? Does the
project affect the protected
area?
(a)N
(a) The site is a complex urban
site and an industrial park area,
and there is no protected area
provided in law, international
treaty, etc. in the space area along
the railroad line of the APM
system.
(2) Ecosystem
(a) Does the site include
primeval forests, tropical
natural
forests,
and
ecologically
important
habitats (coral reef, mangrove
coast, mudflat, etc.)?
(b) Does the site include the
habitat of rare species for
which protection is needed by
the law, international treaties,
etc. of interested states?
(c) When concerned about the
serious influence on the
ecosystem, are measures
which reduce the influence on
the ecosystem taken?
(d) Are the measures which
prevent the blockage of the
migration
pathways
of
wildlife and livestock, the
division of wildlife habitat,
traffic accidents between
vehicles and animals, etc.
taken?
(e) Is deforestation, poaching,
desertification, drying of
marshland, etc. associated
with development produced
by the building of the
railroad? Is there any
possibility that the ecosystem
may
be
disturbed
by
introduction of alien species
(they traditionally do not
inhabit the area), disease and
pest insects, etc.? Are
measures to these prepared?
(f) When building a railroad
in an undeveloped area, is the
natural environment spoiled
greatly in connection with
new
community
development?
(a)N
(b)N
(c)Y
(d)Y
(e)N
(f)N
(a)(b)(c) Since the site is an area
which
consists
of
a
multifunctional city, an industrial
park, and an industrial park plan
lot, it will not be influenced.
(d) As the APM system is a
wholely-elevated-line structure, it
is thought that the interruption of
moving pathways of wild animals
and livestock, the division of
wildlife habitats, and traffic
accidents between vehicles and
animals will not occur.
(e) There is no possibility of
deforestation or disturbing the
ecosystem by the import of alien
species, disease and pest insects,
etc.
(f) Although a part of the
proposed route passes along the
undeveloped area, the area
concerned is regarded as a future
industrial park area, and will not
spoil natural environment.
4-10
3 Natural Environment
4 Social Environment
(3) Hydrometeor
(a) Does new construction of
structures, such as a change of
geographical feature and
tunnels, have an adverse
effect on the flow of a surface
water and ground water?
(a)N
(a) The drainage plan is created
fully grasping the drain capacity
of every region so that roads in the
area are not flooded with water by
the drainage from the track part,
the station part, and the depot at
any time even in the event of
heavy rain in the rainy season.
(4)
Geographical
feature and
geology
(a) Is there any geological
area where earth-and-sand
collapse and landslide are
likely produced on the route?
When bad, are appropriate
measures
taken
into
consideration
by
the
construction method etc.?
(b)
Are
earth-and-sand
collapse and the landslide
produced
by
such
engineering-works
as
banking, earth-cutting, etc.?
Are the appropriate measures
for preventing earth-and-sand
collapse and landslide taken
into consideration?
(c) Is soil runoff from the
bank,
earth-cutting,
soil
disposal area, and the
earth-and-sand
extraction
place produced? Are the
appropriate measures for
preventing
sediment
discharge taken?
(a) Is involuntary resident
transfer
produced
in
connection with the project
execution? When produced
are efforts made to minimize
the influence of a transfer?
(b) Is appropriate explanation
about the measures against
compensation/
life
reconstruction given before a
transfer to the residents who
are to be transferred?
(c) Is the investigation for the
resident transfer made and is
a transfer plan including
recovery of the life base after
compensation by the current
replacement cost and the
transfer established?
(d)
Is
payment
of
compensation made before a
transfer?
(a)N
(b)N
(c)N
(a) The site is a flatland and there
is no place where earth-and-sand
collapse or a landslide occurs.
(b)(c) There are no banking and
earth-cutting due to the elevated
structure, and the earth-and-sand
collapse or the landslide by civil
engineering work will not occur.
Also, soil runoff will not occur
either.
(a)Y
(b)Y
(c)Y
(d)Y
(e)Y
(f)Y
(g)Y
(h)Y
(i)Y
(j)Y
(a) An involuntary resident
transfer arises in a part of sections,
such as the Cikarang station
access part and the entrance part
to the industrial-park area.
Since it is possible for the APM
system to make the road
introduction space and to allow it
to be comparatively more flexible
in alignment choices, the plan
shall be of minimum influence by
transfer.
(b) The appropriate explanation
about compensation etc. is to be
given before the transfer as
procedures about the involuntary
resident transfer have been
established.
(1) Resident
move
4-11
(1) Resident
move
(e) Is the compensation plan
in written form?
(f) Was the appropriate
consideration for socially
vulnerable groups, such as
women, children, elderly
men, the poor, ethnic
minorities, indigenous people,
scheduled especially among
residents to be transferred?
(g) Can an agreement before a
transfer be reached with
residents to be transferred?
(h) Is a system for carrying
out a resident transfer
appropriately prepared? Are
sufficient competency and
budget measures taken?
(i) Is monitoring of the
influence by a transfer
planned?
(j) Is a structure for handling
complaints built?
(2) Life and
livelihood
(a) When a railroad is
installed
by
new
development, does it have
influence on the existing
means of transportation or the
life of the residents engaged
in it? Also, are there large
changes
of
land
use
livelihood
means,
unemployment,
etc.
produced? Does the plan
consider relief of these
influences?
(b) Are there any adverse
effects on residents by the
project? When required, what
measures are considered to
mitigate the impact?
4-12
(a)Y
(b)N
(c)N
(d)N
(e)N
(f)Y
(c) The transfer plan can be
created to have a lot location
survey, an asset survey, land
evaluation, contents deliberations
of compensation, etc.
(d) Compensation is to be paid
after the contents of compensation
before a transfer is agreed.
(e) The contents of compensation
are drawn up in writing.
(f) Since the residents affected by
influence have procedures, such as
common knowledge of public
relations,
deliberations,
and
protest,
socially
vulnerable
groups, such as women, children,
old men, the poor, ethnic
minorities, indigenous people,
were considered.
(g) It is required to show
compensation which does not
become
disadvantageous
for
transfer persons, and since
deliberations towards agreement
formation are implemented, it is
thought that an agreement is
reached before a transfer.
(h)(i)
Enforcement
system,
budget, and monitoring are
considered by the procedures of
the resident transfer.
(j) There is structure of a
complaint statement in the
procedures of the resident transfer.
(a) Although the influence on the
peripheral
people
by
the
management, drivers, etc. of
buses, minibuses, etc. can be
considered, on the other hand, by
the project, construction workers
increase in number during a
construction period, and new job
opportunities after operation in the
commercial establishment around
the operating company and the
station, etc. also increase.
(b) Since it is a project of high
public responsibility, residents'
convenience improves, and there
will be no adverse effect.
(c) Since it is the local traffic of
Cikarang district, there is no
danger of occurrence of illness as
there is little chance of promotion
for a population influx from
distant places.
(2) Life and
livelihood
(c) Is there any danger of
illness generated (including
infection, such as HIV) by a
population influx from other
areas? Is consideration of
suitable
public
health
sanitation taken if needed?
(d) Is there an adverse effect
in the road traffic of
surrounding areas by the
project (the increase in traffic
congestion, traffic accidents,
etc.)?
(e) Does an obstacle arise in
residents' migration by the
rail line?
(f) Is sunshine prevention and
radio disturbance produced by
railroad structures (bridge
etc.)?
(3) Cultural
heritage
(a) Is there any possibility of
damaging
valuable
archaeological,
historical,
cultural or religious heritage
or sites by the project? Also,
are the measures defined in
the
municipal
law
of
interested states taken into
consideration?
(a) When the scenery which
should
be
considered
especially exists, is it affected
adversely?
Are
required
measures
taken
when
influential?
(4) View
4-13
(d) There will be no adverse effect
to surrounding road traffic. The
modal shift from the road traffic
progresses by introducing the
APM system and congestion relief
of road traffic can be expected.
(e) Since the whole APM system
is of elevated-line structure, the
area is not divided by the track
and an obstacle will not be
produced in residents' migration.
(f) Sunshine blocking: It occurs.
Although the places which
daylight hours are influenced with
an elevated structure also will be
created,
the
influence
is
considered little by making
introduction space into the center
of a road. Also, since there are
more portions where sunshine is
limited throughout the year in
Cikarang area, it is considered not
to be a serious problem. Radio
disturbance: It is produced. The
places where radio disturbance is
produced with an elevated
structure
may
be
created.
Although the places to be
influenced cannot be pinpointed in
an initial environmental research
stage, it is necessary to investigate
at the time of detailed design.
(a)N
(a) In the area along the proposal
route of this project there are no
archaeologically, historically, in
culture, and religiously precious
inheritance, historic relics, etc.
(a)N
(a) The scenery which should be
considered does not exist along
the proposal route in particular of
this project. However, since the
whole line is of elevated structure,
the structure, station building
design, etc. is required to maintain
harmony with the surrounding
scenery. Also, it is necessary to
devise, such as designing to
temporary enclosure during a
construction period.
4 Social environment
(5) Ethnic
minority,
indigenous
people
(6) Labor
environment
(a) Is consideration which
reduces the impact on the
culture and the lifestyle of
ethnic
minorities
and
indigenous people taken?
(b) Are various rights about
the land and resources of
ethnic
minorities
and
indigenous people respected?
(a) Are the laws on the labor
environment of the interested
states which should be
observed in the project
protected?
(b) Are the measures of the
safety consideration in the
hardware aspect to project
authorized personnel, such as
installation of the safety
equipment
concerning
industrial accident prevention
and management of harmful
substances taken?
(c) Are the measures in the
software aspect to project
related personnel, such as
implementation of safety and
health plan and safety training
to workers (including traffic
safety and public health
sanitation)
planned
and
carried out?
(d) Are the appropriate
measures taken so that the
security staff related to the
project may not infringe on
the safety of project related
personnel and local residents?
4-14
(a)Y
(b)Y
(a)(b) Ethnic minorities and
indigenous people are not living
along the proposal route of the
project.
(a)Y
(b)Y
(c)Y
(d)Y
(a) This project is a public
transportation project and the
related law can be observed by
conforming to the performances
of the labor environment of traffic
transit systems, such as the
existing railroad and a bus, etc., in
Indonesia.
(b) Since this project also has
many performances in and outside
the country, it is possible to take
measures
of
the
safety
consideration by the hardware
aspect to project related personnel,
such as installation of the safety
equipment
concerning
the
industrial accident prevention and
management
of
harmful
substance, etc. of the APM
system.
(c) Since this project also has
many performances in and outside
the country, it is possible to carry
out technology transfer in the
software aspect to project related
personnel such as planning the
safety-and-hygiene
and
the
implementation of safety and
health to staffs, etc. of the APM
system.
(d) It is necessary to aim at
thoroughness through educational
instructions so that it may not
infringe on the safety of project
related personnel and local
residents for the security staffs of
the project.
5 Others
(1) Influence
under
construction
(a) Are the relief measures for
contamination
during
construction (noise, vibration,
muddy water, dust, exhaust
gas, waste substance, etc.)
prepared?
(b) Is the natural environment
(ecosystem)
affected
adversely by construction?
Are relief measures to reduce
impacts prepared?
(c) Is the social environment
affected
adversely
by
construction?
Are
relief
measures to reduce impacts
prepared?
(d) Is road traffic congestion
generated by construction,
and are relief measures to
reduce impacts prepared?
(a)Y
(b)N
(c)Y
(d)Y
(2) Monitoring
(a) Is the business operator's
monitoring
planned
and
carried out to the items which
can be subject to the influence
among the above-mentioned
environment items?
(b) Are the items of the plan
concerned,
methods,
frequency, etc. judged to be
appropriates?
(c) Is the business operator's
monitoring
system
(organization,
staffs,
equipment, budgets, etc. and
those continuity) established?
(d)
Are
the
methods,
frequency, etc. of the report
from the business operator to
competent authorities etc.
specified?
(a)Y
(b)Y
(c)Y
(d)Y
4-15
(a) The relief measures over
contamination during construction
shall be prepared. As for the
construction work, the relief
measures
over
environment
pollution shall be examined fully
in the implementation plan.
(b) As the road is made into the
introduction space of the APM
system, it will not have an adverse
effect on the ecosystem by
construction.
(c)(d) Concern about traffic
congestion occurring by lane
regulation etc. by construction. It
is necessary to form construction
plans, such as carrying in and
installation works, before start of
construction,
to strive
for
minimization of influence in road
traffic putting up an indication for
detour, etc.
(a)(b)(c)(d) The results of
environment management and
monitoring must be submitted
every three months in order to
obtain the approvals of the
Environmental
Impact
Coordination Bureau of the
Ministry of Environment, the
Ministry of Public Operators, and
the District Environmental Impact
Administration Bureau.
6 Important Matters
(1) Reference of
other
environmental
check lists
(a) If necessary, additional
items can be evaluated by
checking the appropriate
checklist relating to forestry
(when
accompanied
by
large-scale deforestation)
(b) If necessary, additional
items can be evaluated by
checking the appropriate
checklist relating to the
distribution and transmission
of electrical power (when
accompanied by construction
of
distribution
and
transmission of electrical
power
and
distribution
institution etc.).
(a)Y
(b)Y
(a) Although the APM system
makes the road median strip
introduction space in the industrial
park, it needs to consider tree
cutting and transplanting in the
part where the trees planted at the
time of road maintenance and
improvement exist.
(b) Although the parts where the
power cable was stretched are
along the proposal route, it is
necessary
to
consider
the
construction plan which will not
affect them.
(2) Notes for
environmental
check-list use
(a) If necessary, the effects of (a)Y
(a) Introduction of the APM
transboundary
or
global
system brings about the modal
environmental issues shall
shift from the road traffic, and
also be checked (when the
contributes to reduction of
elements concerning the
greenhouse gas.
problem of cross-border
processing
of
waste
substances, acid rain, ozone
layer depletion, and global
warming can be considered
etc.).
Note 1) As for "the standards of interested states" in the table, measures will be examined if
needed when there is significant deviation as compared with the standards accepted
internationally. As for the items for which the regulation is not established in interested states
presently, they will be examined by comparing them with appropriate standards other than
interested states (also including the experience in Japan).
Note 2) The environmental check list shows only standard environmental check items, and
needs to delete or add items depending on the characteristics of the business and the area.
Source: Study Team
4.3.2 Land Acquisition and Involuntary Resettlement
It is likely that this project will cause involuntary resettlement along the route of the APM system.
The scale, based on aerial photographs and considering a required road width of 15m for the APM
system installation, is estimated to be as follows.
•
Access to Cikarang station: 15 involuntary resettlements, 5,300m2 acquisition
•
Entrance of Jababeka industrial park: 17 involuntary resettlements, 5,900m2 acquisition
•
North of Jababeka Cikampek Toll Road: 29,000m2 acquisition
•
Bekasi Fajar industrial estate district: 27,000m2 acquisition
4-16
Figure 4-1 Locations Requiring Land Acquisition
Cikarang Station
Java Main Line
Jababeka
Industrial Park
MM2100
Industrial Town
Bekasi Fajar
Industrial Estate
Lippo Cikarang
Industrial Estate
EJIP
Route 1 of the new system
Route of the APM
Land Acquisition with Voluntary
Land
Acquisition with Voluntary
Resettlemen
Resettlemen
Land Acquisition at Undeveloped
Land
at Undeveloped
Area Acquisition
without Road
Area without Road
0
1
2
km
Source: Study Team
4-17
Deltamas City
4.3.3 Comparison with Alternative Route
The result of the comparison study, focusing on environmental/social impacts, with Alternative
Route 2 proposed in "3.2.1 Route Planning" is shown in Table 4-6.
Table 4-6
Comparison of Alternative Route
Route 1
Main
Introduction
space
Root Length
Developments
along the route
Land
Acquisition
Depot Site
Evaluation
Project Effects
Judgment
Route 2
Cikarang Station ~ Jababeja industrial park ~
Bekasi Fajar industrial estate ~ MM2100
industrial town
12km
Cikarang Station ~ Industry Road ~
Jababeka-Cikampek Toll Road IC. ~ EJIP ~
11km
The depot location will be the same with
proposed route 1 due to the difficulty for
finding the depot site. Therefore, total route
length is longer than proposed route 1
considering to approx. 2.5km length of the
approach track from the main line to the depot.
•
Construction Plan of Interchange for •
Development plan of complex city in
Jababeka
industrial
park
of
undeveloped area of Jababeka industrial
park
•
Development
of
Large
scale •
Development Plan of Lippo Cikarang
Commercial Facilities in Jababeka
industrial estate, Deltamas City
industrial park area, north of
•
Plans for industrial parks and complex
city in the undeveloped area of Bekasi
Fajar industrial estate
•
Construction plan of IT business center
in MM2100 industrial town
•
Many Japanese Companies
Approximate 30 Involuntary Resettlements
Approximate 380 Involuntary Resettlements
2
Approximate
67,200m
Acquisition Approximate 85,000 m2 Acquisition
(including undeveloped area of Approximate
56,000 m2)
Undeveloped area of Bekasi Fajar industrial Jababeka industrial town, EJIP are difficult to
estate is intended to be used.
use because of existing development plans.
Use of Bekasi Fajar industrial estate is not
profitable and operationally efficient because
of a too long approach track.
At the industrial estates, land acquisition is Land acquisition scale is large including at the
not required. Land acquisition scale is small depot site.
overall.
Convenient for commuters to industrial Future economic benefit is expected because
estates and beneficial for Japanese of improvement of transportation convenience
companies.
by development of undeveloped areas.
Fair
Good
Source: Study Team
4-18
4.3.4 Local Information related to the Environment
The local information related to the environment according to interviews with local developers as
part of our field survey is as follows.
•
•
•
•
•
Land acquisition is the most important matter in the project area.
It is necessary to comply with the environment assessment standard of Road Bureau because
the right of way of the APM use road space.
There are not any problems with the cutting of the trees on the green belt of the center of the
road when civil structures are constructed.
In the industrial park area, the portion of green space is more than 30% of the total area.
However, the road space is classed together as the green space, thus the impact by the APM
system introduction is considered to be low.
The drainage pollution is the priority issue in the industrial parks.
4-19
4.4
Summary of Environmental/Social Legislation
in the host country
4.4.1 Main Legislation relating to Environmental/Social Considerations
In Indonesia, the Basic Environment Act enacted in 1982 (old Act) was significantly amended in
1997. This amendment included reinforcement of environmental restrictions against business
activities, enforcement of penal regulations, enrichment of rules related to dispute resolution and
introduction of rules for residents’ right to environmental information. Afterwards, in 2009, by Act
Number 32, the Environment Control Act was enacted and the authorities and penal regulations of
officials governing environmental issues were significantly reinforced. In addition, the Wastes
Control Act was enacted as the law related to wastes management in 2008.
Control of water and air quality is governed by separate cabinet orders. For water quality, Cabinet
Order for Prevention of Water Pollution and Control of Water Quality (No.82/2001) exists. For air
pollution, Ordinance for Prevention of Air Pollution (in 1999) exists. As well, other regulations,
including Cabinet Order for Hazardous Wastes Management (in 1999), Cabinet Order for
Environmental Impact Assessment (in 1999) and etc. exist. Environmental limitations and applicable
facilities required for execution of such orders are determined by Ministerial orders or other
regulations.
Legislation relating to implementation of this project is show in Table 4-7.
Table 4-7
Field
Environment in
General
Decentralization
Water Quality
Control
Legislation for Environmental Pollution Control relating to this Project
Acts
Environmental Protection and Management Act 32 (2009)
Law No.22 ,1999
Government Regulation 82 Water Quality Management and Water Pollution
Control (2001)
Minister of Environment Decree Kep-51/MENLH Liquid Waste Water
Quality Standard for Industrial Activities (1995)
Joint Circular Letter Between Minister of Home Affairs airs and State
Minister of Environment concerning Reorganization of Local Government
Governmental Institutions.
Number 061/163/SJ/2008 and SE-01/MENLH/2008
Air Quality Control
Minister of Environmental Decree Kep-35/MENLH Emission Limit for
Gas Waste of Motor Vehicles (1993)
National ambient quality standards: GR No.41/1999
Noise Prevention
Decree of Ministry of Environment No. 48/MENLH/11/1996: Noise
standards
Vibration-Prevention Decree of Ministry of Environment No. 49/MENLH/11/1996: Vibration
standards
Environmental
Government Regulation of The Republic of Indonesia Concerning
Impact Assessment
Environmental Impact Assessment (No.51, 1993)
Decree of Ministry of Environment No. 17/2001: Type and size of business
and/or activities
requiring AMDAL document
Others
Presidential Decree No. 2/2002 on the amendment to Presidential Decree
No.101/2001 on the status, tasks, functions, authority, organizational
structures and working arrangements of state ministers
Source：BAPADAL
4-20
The supposed risks indicated in “JETRO Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations”
and environmental laws in Indonesia are compared in Table 4-8.
Table 4-8
Comparison between JETRO Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations
and environmental laws in Indonesia
Supposed Project Risks
(JETRO Guidelines for Environmental
Check
Laws in Indonesia
and Social Considerations)
 Environmental Protection and
Management Act 32 (2009)
 Government Regulation 41 Air
Pollutants or hazardous wastes from offices
Pollution Control (1999)
Good
and factories
 Government Regulation 82 Water
Quality Management and Water
Pollution Control (2001)
Prohibition against forced labor, child
labor, breach of minimum wages and
Good  Labor law 2003
breach of workers’ rights
Discrimination in employment
Good

Labor law 2003
Employment in hazardous and non-healthy
work
Good

Labor law 2003
No environmental/social assessment at
construction of offices and factories
Good

Environmental Protection and
Occurrence of involuntary resettlement at
land acquisition
Good

Land 2005
Inconsistent measures for disaster, accident
or emergency
Good

Labor law 2003
Corruption
Good

Anti-corruption 2001
Non-disclosure of environmental
information to citizens, non-participation in
decision-making process
Good

Environmental Protection and
Relating law is existing：Good Partially existing：Fair
Undeveloped：Poor
Source: Study Team
4.4.2 Procedures for Land Acquisition and Resettlement
Land acquisition and resettlement for public works in Indonesia is governed by the Land Acquisition
Act. As shown in Figure 4-2, the procedures are carried out in order of 1) permission for land use
and construction, 2) inspection for land and assets and 3) negotiation and payment of compensation.
4-21
Figure 4-2
SP2LP
Land Acquisition and Resettlement Procedures
Inventarization
Deliberation Meeting
And Payment
Compensation Money
Depositing (Consignment)
after
ROW Plan
Socialization/Dissemination
Land Appraisal
MPW
TPT
Appraisal Team
SP2LP Request
ROW Determination
Deliberation Meeting
MPW
TPT
Land Owner, TPT, P2T
Issuance of SP2LP
Calculating and Mapping
of Land Field
Governor/Regent/Mayor
Land Office / P2T
Land Freezing
Land, Building and Plant
Revitalization
Nominative List
P2T
TPT, P2T
SKP2T
120 days
No
P2T
Depositing
Compensation Money to
the State Court
P2T, TPT
Yes
Land Owners Agree
Agreement Letter to start
the construction
Agree
Filling Complaint to
No
Land Owners
Answer to the Complaint
of Land Owners
Notes :
SP2LP
P2T
Request to P2T to start
to start the land
acquisition
Minister of Public Works
Inventarization List
Announcement
Compensation Money
Payment
P2T
Land Owners, TPT, P2T
± 2 months
± 4 months
± 6 months
Land Owner Agree
TPT
MPW
Yes
: Land Use and
Construction Permit
: Land Acquisition
Committee
: Land Acquisition Team
: Minister of Public
Works
± 4 months
Source: BAPEDAL
4.4.3 Environmental Impact Assessment System
The Environmental Impact Assessment Report in Indonesia was first introduced in Cabinet Order no.
29/1986 and amended the system such as the simplification of initial screening process, etc. in
Cabinet Order no. 51/1993. In addition, the comprehensive committee of the environmental impact
assessment was established in 1994. The Environmental Impact Assessment Report is consists of
general provisions, environmental management, human resource development, supervision, finance,
transitional provisions and so on. Main procedures and contents are as follows. Persons who conduct
activities or business possibly causing harm to the environment have to prepare a Preliminary
Environmental Information Report (PIL). Items significantly affecting the environment are listed as
1) scale of affected population, 2) scale of affected area, 3) impact duration, 4) impact strength, 5)
number of affected environmental components, 6) cumulative effects and 7) reversibility or
irreversibility of environmental impacts. If such impacts are determined to be significant or similar
results have come from the results of the PIL, preparation of an Environment Impact Assessment
Report (called as AMDAL in Indonesia) is required. Necessity of AMDAL for certain activity or
business is judged through evaluation of PIL by a special committee including Ministers governing
related activities. There are two committees, one at the national level and one at the state level. the
national level committee is composed of members from Ministry of Environment, Planning Director
of the secretariat of each Ministry and Director General of Office for Environment, a representative
assigned by the Minister of the Interior, a representative assigned by the Minister of
Population/Environment and experts in related fields. State level committees are composed of
Director for Planning/Development of each state, Director for Population/Environment/Development,
heads of living environment research center of universities in related areas and so on. Figure 4-3
shows the procedures of Environment Impact Assessment.
4-22
Figure 4-3
Community Stakeholders
EIA Procedures
Responsible Institutions
Project Proponent
Announcement of
Project Plan
Announcement for
Preparation of EIA
Suggestions, Options
and Responses
(within 30 days)
Preparation of Guidelines for
EIA
Consultation
and Responses
Review of TOR of EIA
By EIA Committee
(within 75 days)
Preparation of
EIS and EMPs
and Responses
Review of EIS and EMPs
By EIA Committee
(within 75 days)
Decision of Approval
Source: BAPEDAL
4-23
4.5 Matters Conducted by Host Country (implementing and
concerned organization) for Project Realization
Matters to be conducted by the Indonesia Government are shown in Table 4-9 for realization of this
project.
Table 4-9
Stage
DETAILED
DESIGN
PRE-CONS
TRUCTION
STAGE
Matters to be undertaken by Government of Indonesia
Activity
[EIA]
Preparation of PIL
Announcement for Preparation of AMDAL
Authority
Owner
Ministry of the Environment
KA-ANDAL Evaluation by Committee
75 days
ANDAL, RKL, RPL Evaluation by Committee
75 days
Decision of Approval of AMDAL
[Land Acquisition and Resettlement]
Request for determination of the Project Owner
location and trace
Public Operator
Governor
Inspection for land and assets
Land Acquisition Committees
Negotiation, payment of compensation and Governor
delivery of new land certificates
Land Acquisition Committees
Permission for implementation of project
Ministry of Transportation
Acquisition of land
Public of Indonesia/
Removal of affected public assets (electric pole, Directorate General of
optic cable, water pipe etc)
Railways
Permission for cutting roadside trees
Permission for disposal and treatment of waste
Bekasi Regency
Permission for traffic regulation
Source: Study Team
4-24
Period
2 months
4 months
6 months
Chapter 5
Financial and Economic Evaluation
5.1
Estimation of Project Cost
5.1.1 Overview of Project Cost
Project costs are calculated from civil construction costs, rolling stock costs, E&M system costs and
other construction costs as well as consultant fees and land costs. Additional costs for increase in the
number of rolling stock accompanying future increase in demand and related construction costs are
considered.
Each construction unit price is based on practical and economical construction methods. The
breakdown of each construction unit price is divided into local currency (L/C) and foreign currency
(F/C) based on Indonesia's procurement potential, and further split by fiscal year for allocation. VAT
(value-added tax) and contingency are taken into account for these prices.
(1) Civil Construction Costs
Civil construction costs sum up super structure costs, substructure costs, guideway installation costs,
station building costs and depot construction costs. The validity of each construction type
construction unit cost is examined based on past similar examples from various countries similar to
Indonesia and relevant other countries for use. In addition, if there are no suitable past examples, the
construction unit cost is calculated based on a separate estimation.
(2) Rolling stock and E&M System Construction Costs
Rolling stock costs will be allocated in the Japanese expenses in the plan where the rolling stock are
manufactured in Japan. Construction unit costs for electric train systems, signalling and
telecommunication systems, rolling stock repair plants, etc. are calculated based on past similar
examples with the same characteristics.
(3) Consultant Fees
Fees for consultants who provide assistance to the entity executing the project are divided into
domestic and foreign currency and allocated.
(4) Land Costs
Land and depot land acquisition costs which affect proposed system route construction are allocated.
(5) Contingency
5% is accounted for both for construction costs and consultant fees.
(6) VAT (Value-added Tax)
10% of VAT is considered.
(7) Exchange Rates
The exchange rate of November 2011 will be used.
Japanese Yen / Indonesian Rupiah: 1 Yen
= 99.01 Rupiah
Indonesian Rupiah / Japanese Yen:
1 Rupiah = 0.01 Yen
U.S. Dollars / Japanese Yen:
1 US$
= 79.3 Yen
U.S. Dollars / Indonesian Rupiah:
1 US$
= 7,851 Rupiah
(8) Base Years of Estimation
November 2011
5-1
5.1.2 Construction Costs
Total project costs of proposed system are shown in Table 5-1. Additional investment of rolling stock
are planned in accordance with future passenger demand increases in 2024 and 2037. In 2024, there
will be a need for rolling stock purchase costs, however for the 2037 rolling stock increase, the trains
will be increased from 2 cars to 4 cars, so in addition to rolling stock purchase costs, station building
expansion, depot stabling track expansion, power, and signalling and telecommunication system
expansion construction will be necessary.
Table 5-1 Construction Cost
Unit: F/C; million Yen
Unit: L/C; million Rupiah
Unit: Total; million Yen (million USD)
Total of 2013 to 2018
2024
2037
Remarks
Item
F/C
L/C
Total F/C L/C Total F/C
L/C Total
Civil works
(1) Main line
(2) Station
(3) Depot
(4) Environmental cost
(5) Total of civil works
7,232
1,350
1,290
0
9,872
1,626,800 23,500
(296.3)
335,000 4,700
(59.3)
170,940 2,999
(37.8)
12,000
120
(1.5)
2,144,740 31,319
(394.9)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(0)
0
(0)
0
(0)
0
(0)
0
(0)
0
0
0
0
810 201,000
19
2,940
829 203,940
0
(0)
0
(0)
2,820
(35.6)
48
(0.6)
2,868
(36.2)
E&M
(6) Rolling stock
(7) Electrical facility
(8) Signalling & telecom
(9) Station facility
(10) Depot facility
(11) Total of E&M
(12) Civil + E&M
(13) Land Cost
(14) Consulting fee
(15) Contingency
(16) Total
(17) VAT
Grand total
7,200
0
5,078
127,001
4,396
109,900
1,040
26,000
490
21,000
18,204
283,901
28,076
0
1,200
1,464
29,276
2,928
33,667
7,200 2,160
(90.8)
6,348
0
(80.1)
5,495
0
(69.3)
1,300
0
(16.4)
700
0
(8.8)
21,043 2,160
(265.4)
2,428,641 52,362 2,160
(660.3)
440,600 4,406
0
(55.6)
280,000 4,000
0
(50.4)
135,432 2,818
108
(35.5)
3,149,241 60,768 2,160
(766.3)
314,924 6,077
216
(76.6)
3,599,597 69,663 2,484
(878.5)
0 2,160 2,880
(27.2)
0
0
56
(0)
0
0
56
(0)
0
0
0
(0)
0
0
0
(0)
0 2,160 2,992
(27.2)
0 2,160 3,821 206,740 5,888
(5)+(11)
(27.2)
(74.3)
0
0
0
0
0
(0)
(0)
0
0
0
0
0
(0)
(0)
0
108
191 10,337
294
(12)+(14)*5%
(1.4)
(3.7)
0 2,160 3,821 206,740 5,888
(12)+(13)+(14)
(27.2)
(74.3)
0
216
382 20,674
589
(16)*VAT10%
(2.7)
(7.4)
0 2,484 4,394 237,751 6,772
(15)+(16)+(17)
(31.3)
(85.4)
Source: Study Team
5-2
0 2,880
(36.3)
1,400
70
(0.9)
1,400
70
(0.9)
0
0
(0)
0
0
(0)
2,800 3,020
(38.1)
5.1.3
Construction Cost Details
(1) Construction Preparation Costs
Costs for commencing construction work.
(2) Substructure Construction
Main line substructures are examined in the standard formats then construction costs are calculated
for each location.
(3) Super Structure Construction
Super structure construction is planned to use PC box girders in general areas, and steel box girders
in areas which traverse highways over long spans.
1) PC Box Girders
30m girder length PC box girders are used as standard with construction costs calculated per
girder.
2) Steel Box Girders
Use of steel box girders is planned for highway crossing areas. Construction costs are calculated
from steel material weight.
(4) Station Building Construction
Station building construction costs include elevating facilities such as elevators and escalators,
electrical lighting equipment, drainage water facilities and other facility. Passenger guidance
announcement, clock, communication equipment etc. communication and signalling equipment are
calculated separately as signalling and telecommunications construction costs.
Station buildings are classified into two types, standard stations or terminal stations and the
construction costs for each are calculated.
1) Standard Station
12 Stations
Standard stations are island platform stations with a standard structure and a concourse floor and
platform floor constructed above the road. The terminal stations inside the industrial complex are
planned using the same structure as the standard stations with consideration for future extension.
2) Terminal Station
1 Station
The Cikarang Station side terminal station is planned as a separate platform station in
consideration of passenger transfers.
(5) Running Route, Guideway Construction
Calculated from main line running route, guideway installation construction, turnout equipment and
other construction costs.
(6) Depot Construction
Depot construction costs are calculated from the following items.
1) Depot Foundation Improvement Construction
Because construction is planned in the industrial complex area so levelling construction is not
necessary for the interior of the depot, however foundation improvement construction is planned
to a depth of 2m with consideration for operation and stabling of rolling stock.
5-3
2) Track, Guideway Installation Construction
Because the track inside the depot will be installed above-ground, the structure will differ from the
main line, so the construction costs for the track inside the depot are calculated separately.
3) Depot Approach Track
The unit structural construction costs for the approach track inside the depot are calculated
separate from the main line, and then overall construction costs are calculated.
4) Turnout Equipment
The quantities of branch equipment in the depot are allocated and costs are calculated from the
unit costs.
5) Buildings and Facilities
The construction costs for the comprehensive office building, repair plant and other buildings
constructed inside the depot are calculated.
6) Other Construction
Construction costs for roads, water and sewerage, drainage treatment and other construction are
calculated.
(7) Depot Inspection and Maintenance Plant Construction
Costs for the equipment and facilities required for rolling stock and system equipment maintenance
and inspection are calculated.
(8) Rolling Stock
Planned to be manufactured in Japan and export to Indonesia, rolling stock costs and spare parts are
allocated as foreign currency portion.
(9) Power System
Distribution plants and train line system facility costs are calculated as power systems.
(10) Signalling and Telecommunication Systems
Signal, communication system signal, telecommunication, train management system etc. equipment
are split by domestic and foreign currency and allocated.
(11) Environmental Measure Costs
Costs for environmental measures during the construction work period and remedial expenses are
calculated.
(12) Consultant Fees
The project entity requires consultant support during the execution of work during the APM system
construction work period. The fees for these consultants are calculated. Consultant fees for
additional rolling stock purchases are not calculated.
(13) Land Costs
Land which hinders the construction of the APM system route is divided into general land and land
which requires relocation of residents and then allocated. For the general sections, the parts in the
Bekasi Fajar industrial complex have not yet had construction plans decided, so are allocated as
approximate quantities, and may change according to the road plans inside the industrial complex.
5-4
For depot land acquisition costs purchase of land in sections of the Bekasi Fajar industrial complex
is planned.
5.1.4 Operation and Maintenance Cost
The Operation and Maintenance costs consists of labor cost and expense such as track maintenance
cost, electricity and signalling maintenance cost and others. In this study, the labor costs are
estimated by multiplying the each unit labor costs by the number of workers of each position. The
expenses are estimated based on the basic unit.
(1) Labor Cost
The salaries of each employee are estimated as follows referring to “JETRO Investment guide
2009”.
Table 5-2 Salaries of Employee
Salaries (per month)
Department
Position
Indonesian Rupiah
Japanese Yen
Head Office
Management
7,500,000
66,443
Engineer
5,628,800
49,866
Field Operation
Staff
2,561,800
22,695
Source: JETRO Investment Guide 2009
(2) Expense
The major expense items excluding labor costs are generally set as follows.
1) Running Cost
2) Track Maintenance Cost
3) Catenary Maintenance Cost
4) Rolling Stock Maintenance Cost
5) Traffic Cost
6) Electricity Cost for Facilities
7) Others: Indirect cost
The basic unit of each expense item are estimated based on the statistical data of Japanese APM
companies. Excluding running cost and electricity cost, the expenses consist of material cost and
outsourcing cost, and outsourcing cost is mainly consist of local labor cost. Therefore those expenses
are assumed at least 20% lower than basic units referring the statistical data of Japan. The basic unit
of each expense item are shown in Table 5-3.
Table 5-3
Expenses
Running Cost
Track Maintenance Cost
Electricity and Signalling
Maintenance Cost
Rolling Stock Maintenance Cost
Transport Cost
Basic Unit of Each Expense Item
Basic Unit
Unit price of electricity consumption (rolling stock):
2.5 kWh/vehicle -km, Unit price of electricity charges: 6.7 yen/kWh
16 million yen/1km (/route length)/y
16 million yen/1km (/route length)/y
44 yen/vehicle-km/y
12.8 million yen /station/y
Electricity Cost for Facilities
300,000 kWh/facility/y
Others
Indirect cost: 20% of Labor cost
Source: Study Team, PLT
5-5
(3) Annual Operation and Maintenance Cost
The annual operation and maintenance costs are shown in Table 5-4.
Table 5-4 Annual Operation and Maintenance Cost
Unit: Thousand Yen
Year
2019~2024
2025~2037
2038~
Labor Cost
120,100
88,500
89,600
Expense
935,200
1,001,000
1,201,100
Source: Study Team
5-6
Total
1,055,300
1,089,600
1,290,700
5.2
Preliminary Economic and Financial Analyses
5.2.1 Preliminary Economic Analysis
(1) Methodology
The objective of the preliminary economic analysis is to analyze and evaluate the viability of
implementing this project from the viewpoint of the national economy. A comparative analysis of
the costs and benefits both in the case of executing the project ("With project") and not executing the
project ("Without project") is carried out. Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR), Benefit and
Cost Ratio (B/C Ratio) and Economic Net Present Value (ENPV) are estimated as the evaluation
indexes.
(2) Premises
The preliminary economic analysis is carried out based on the following premises.
 Period of the Analysis: The period of the analysis is set at 34 years including the construction
period from 2015 to 2018, and 30 years of operation from 2019 to 2048.
 Social Discount Rate: Social discount rate (SDR) of 12% is applied. All project costs and
benefits are discounted back at 12%. The EIRR is evaluated in comparison with the
opportunity cost of capital. In the analysis, SDR of 12% is applied as the opportunity cost of
capital.
 Exchange Rate: The exchange rate is assumed to be 1.00 US$ = 7,851 Rupiah = 79.30 Yen
as of November 2011.
 Economic Price: All figures are based on constant prices in 2011. All costs are classified as
imported products (foreign currency portion) or domestic products (local currency portion).
The economic costs are calculated excluding transferable items such as various taxes, import
duties and subsidies etc., from the viewpoint of the national economy. In order to translate
financial (market) cost into economic cost, Standard Conversion Factors (SCFs) are applied.
In this study, SCF as 0.80 and 0.85 for F/C portion and L/C portion are applied respectively
referring previous studies in Indonesia.
 Inflation: It is not considered in the economic analysis.
 Residual Value: The residual value in the last year (2048) of the analysis is counted as a
negative investment cost. The residual value is calculated based on the life cycle of the
facilities shown in Table 5-5.
Table 5-5
Life Cycle of Facilities
Item
Duration
Civil structure
50 years
Building
50 years
E&M system
30 years
Rolling stock
30 years
Source: Study Team
(3) Results of Economic Analysis
1) Cases of the Analysis
In the analysis, costs and benefits are defined as the difference between the cases of "With
project" and "Without project". The cases are summarized as follows.
 "With project" is the case in which the proposed system is implemented and passenger
transportation services are provided through the proposed route.
5-7

"Without project" is the case that the proposed project is not implemented and public
transportation is served by bus using existing roads. Investment costs of procuring buses
to satisfy future passenger demand in target area are counted in each vehicle operating
costs (VOC) as each depreciation cost.
2) Project Costs
Project costs consist of investment costs and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. All costs
are shown in economic price.
a) Investment Costs
The investment cost of "With project" (excluding land cost and consultant fee) is summarized in
Table 5-6. The additional investment cost in 2024 and 2037 should be considered based on the
increase in the number of train operation in the future.
Table 5-6
Civil
E&M/
Rolling stock
Total
Civil
E&M/
Rolling stock
Total
F/C
2015
L/C
266.0
547.1
349.0
57.6
Construction Costs of "With Project" (in economic price)
Unit: ten million Yen
F/C
2016
L/C
813.1
291.8
710.5 1,002.3
406.6
523.5
614.9
604.7 1,219.6
F/C
2024
L/C
Total
Total
F/C
2017
L/C
291.8
710.5 1,002.3
609.9
587.2
103.4
815.3
796.9 1,612.2
879.1
F/C
2037
L/C
86.4
Total
Total
F/C
2018
L/C
58.6
128.5
187.1
690.6
215.1
30.1
245.2
813.8 1,692.9
273.7
158.5
432.2
Total
0.0
0.0
0.0
76.3
199.4
275.6
198.7
0.0
198.7
275.3
2.7
278.0
198.7
0.0
198.7
351.5
202.1
553.6
Source: Study Team
b) Operation and Maintenance (O&M) Costs
The operation and maintenance costs are calculated in Chapter 3.3 “Operation Plan”. Annual
operation and maintenance costs in economic price are estimated with SCF as 0.85. O&M costs of
"Without project" are counted in each vehicle operating costs (VOC).
3) Project Benefits
The quantified benefits of Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC) savings and Transport Time Cost (TTC)
savings are estimated in the analysis.
a) VOC Savings
The VOC savings are calculated by taking the difference in vehicle-km between "With project"
and "Without project". The unit VOC for bus and car are estimated to be 108.2 yen/vehicle-km
and 32.2 yen/vehicle-km shown in Table 5-7.
5-8
Total
Table 5-7
Item
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)
Estimation of VOC
Unit
Lifetime
Annual running kilometer
Vehicle purchase cost
Vehicle purchase cost /km
Total personnel cost
Handling hour
Personnel cost /km
Fuel consumption
Fuel price
Fuel price /km
Lubricant price/km
Tire cost/km
VOC
Bus
year
km/y
ten thousand yen
yen/km
yen/y
km/person/y
yen/km
km/liter
yen/liter
yen/km
yen/km
yen/km
yen/vehicle-km
10
54,750
1,101
20.0
645,600
16,000
40.0
2.2
94.9
43.2
0.2
4.8
108.2
Car
Remark
8
10,000
200
25.0 =(3)/[(1)x(2)]
=(5)/(6)
15.0
86.9
5.8 =(9)/(7)
0.2
1.2
32.2 =(4)+(7)+(10)+(11)+(12)
Source: Study Team
b) TTC Savings
To calculate the TTC savings for proposed system users and non-proposed system users, the unit
time value of passengers is estimated to be 67.5 yen/hour referring average annual income of
133,725 Yen and average working hour of 1,980 hour/y from “Indonesia Handbook 2011”.
In addition to the benefits mentioned above, other indirect benefits such as improvement of
regional transport, contributing natural and social environment and promoting regional
development are expected. As it is difficult to evaluate these benefits quantitatively, the value
figures are not shown. However, these are considered important factors in the decision for
adopting this project.
4) Economic Evaluation Indexes
The results of the preliminary economic analysis based on the above conditions are summarized in
Table 5-8. Details of the economic cash flow are shown in Table 5-10. As all the evaluation
values are found to be favorable, and this project is considered to be economically viable.
Table 5-8
Economic Internal Rate
of Return (EIRR)
13.2 %
Results of Economic Evaluation Indexes
(Social discount rate = 12.0%)
Benefit and Cost Ratio Economic Net Present Value
(B/C Ratio)
(ENPV)
1.1
5,050 million Yen
Source: Study Team
5) Sensitivity Analysis
The project costs and benefits applied in the analysis include certain variations. Some margin is
assumed for these factors and by identifying the variation in results due to the margin, the stability
of project feasibility can be obtained as shown in Table 5-9. In the case of +10% increase in the
investment cost and O&M costs and -10% decrease in the benefits, the value of EIRR is not
satisfy the 12% of social discount rate, and is not economically feasible.
5-9
Table 5-9
Cost
Results of Sensitivity Analysis
-10%
-5%
0%
+5%
+10%
+10%
14.5%
14.5%
14.4%
14.3%
14.3%
+5%
13.9%
13.9%
13.8%
13.8%
13.7%
0%
13.4%
13.3%
13.2%
13.2%
13.1%
-5%
12.8%
12.7%
12.7%
12.6%
12.5%
-10%
12.2%
12.1%
12.0%
12.0%
11.9%
Benefit
Source: Study Team
5-10
Table 5-10
Economic Cashflow
Project Benefits
Net
Economic
VOC
TTC
Total
Total
Benefits
saving
saving
1,219.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1,219.6
1,612.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1,612.2
1,692.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1,692.9
432.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
-432.2
89.7
127.0
710.7
837.7
748.0
89.7
127.1
717.1
844.2
754.5
89.7
127.2
723.5
850.7
761.0
89.7
127.4
729.9
857.3
767.6
89.7
127.5
736.4
863.9
774.2
288.4
127.7
743.0
870.7
582.2
92.6
127.8
749.6
877.4
784.8
92.6
128.0
756.3
884.3
791.6
92.6
128.1
763.0
891.1
798.5
92.6
148.0
769.8
917.8
825.2
92.6
148.2
776.7
924.8
832.2
92.6
153.2
999.9 1,153.1
1,060.5
92.6
153.4 1,007.6 1,161.0
1,068.3
92.6
153.6 1,015.3 1,168.9
1,076.3
92.6
153.7 1,023.1 1,176.9
1,084.3
92.6
153.9 1,031.0 1,184.9
1,092.3
92.6
154.1 1,038.9 1,193.0
1,100.4
92.6
154.3 1,046.9 1,201.2
1,108.6
646.2
154.5 1,055.0 1,209.4
563.2
109.7
179.3 1,063.1 1,242.4
1,132.7
109.7
179.5 1,071.3 1,250.7
1,141.0
109.7
184.1 1,079.5 1,263.6
1,153.9
109.7
184.3 1,087.8 1,272.2
1,162.4
109.7
184.5 1,096.2 1,280.7
1,171.0
109.7
184.8 1,104.6 1,289.4
1,179.7
109.7
185.0 1,113.1 1,298.1
1,188.4
109.7
185.2 1,121.7 1,306.9
1,197.2
109.7
185.5 1,130.3 1,315.8
1,206.1
109.7
185.7 1,139.0 1,324.7
1,215.0
-1,811.3
185.9 1,275.9 1,461.8
3,273.1
Source: Study Team
Project Costs
Seq.
Year
No.
Investment
-4
-3
-2
-1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
1,219.6
1,612.2
1,692.9
432.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
198.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
553.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1,921.0
O&M
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
89.7
89.7
89.7
89.7
89.7
89.7
92.6
92.6
92.6
92.6
92.6
92.6
92.6
92.6
92.6
92.6
92.6
92.6
92.6
109.7
109.7
109.7
109.7
109.7
109.7
109.7
109.7
109.7
109.7
109.7
5-11
5.2.2 Preliminary Financial Analysis
(1) Methodology
The objective of the preliminary financial analysis is to evaluate the financial adequacy of the
project, irrespectively debt and equity. Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) on Project (Project
FIRR) and Financial Net Present Value (FNPV) are estimated as evaluation index.
(2) Premises
The preliminary financial analysis is carried out based on the following premises.
 Period of the Analysis: The period of the analysis is set at 34 years including the
construction (investment) period from 2015 to 2018, and 30 years of operation from 2019
to 2048.
 Financial Cost: All figures are based on constant prices in 2011. The cost for domestic
products is the market price including various taxes, and for imported products is the CIF
price with import duty, inland transportation cost and other fees. Although import duty is
not considered in the analysis assumed that preferential treatment tariff will be adopted to
imported products.
 Inflation: Inflation is taken into consideration to local currency portion of investment cost
and personnel cost of O&M cost. From the central bank (Bank of Indonesia), the inflation
target of 2012 is 4.5% ±1%. In this analysis, the inflation rate of 4.5% until 2029, and half
of 4.5% after 2030 are adopted.
 Residual Value: The residual value in the last year of the analysis is counted as a negative
investment cost. The residual value is calculated based on the life cycle of the facilities.
(3) Assumption of Passenger Fare
Referring the passenger fare of Transjakarta BRT (3,500 Rupiah), and considering additional value
(3,000 Rupiah) of proposed system such as passenger comfort, punctuality and speed, furthermore
taking inflation, passenger fare of 2019 (beginning year of operation) is assumed as follow.
(3,500 + 3,000) x 1.0458 = 9,240 ≒ 9,000 Rupiah
In addition, considering the inflation shown in (2) Premises, passenger fare is assumed to be
escalated as shown in 5-11. Furthermore, flat fare is adopted.
Table 5-11 Assumption of Passenger Fare
Year
Passenger Fare
(Rupiah)
2019~2023 2024~2028 2029~2033 2034~2038 2039~2043 2044~2048
9,000
11,200
14,000
15,600
17,400
19,400
Source: Study Team
(4) Evaluation Measure
The Project FIRR is evaluated in comparison to the Financial Opportunity Cost of Capital (FOCC).
In the analysis, the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) serves as a proxy for the FOCC
combined with the financial sources. For estimation of WACC, 85% of total investment cost is
covered by Japanese ODA loan (STEP) and remaining 15% would be prepared by Indonesian
government are assumed. Terms and conditions of Japanese ODA loan (STEP; general, tied) for
Indonesia (category; middle income class) are interest rate of 0.2% and payment term of 40 years
with grace period of 10 years. WACC for evaluation index is assumed as 1.1% from the above
financial form.
5-12
(5) Results of Preliminary Financial Analysis
a) Investment Cost
Construction cost of civil works (excluding land cost and consultant fee) and procurement of
E&M/rolling stock are considered as investment cost. The additional investment cost should be
considered based on the increase in the number of train operation in the future.
Table 5-12 Investment Cost (in financial price)
2015
F/C
2016
L/C
Total
F/C
L/C
2017
Total
F/C
L/C
2018
Total
734.0
73.3
205.7
278.9
892.4
268.9
48.2
317.0
Total
848.4 1,617.0 1,019.1 1,168.3 2,187.5 1,098.8 1,246.9 2,345.7
342.1
253.8
596.0
768.7
654.4
Total
767.5 1,100.0
517.0
364.8 1,088.5 1,453.3
L/C
Civil
332.5
E&M/
436.2
Rolling stock
80.8
364.8 1,041.6 1,406.4
F/C
2024
F/C
126.7
781.1
2037
L/C
Total
F/C
L/C
Total
Civil
0.0
E&M/
248.4
Rolling stock
0.0
0.0
95.3
418.3
513.6
0.0
248.4
344.1
5.7
349.8
Total
0.0
248.4
439.4
424.0
863.4
248.4
158.4
Source: Study Team
b) Revenue
Annual revenue is composed of passenger fare revenue and non-fare revenue. Fare revenue is
estimated from the number of annual passengers multiplied by passenger fare described in (3)
Assumption of Passenger fare. The non-fare revenue consists of relating business revenues such as
advertising revenue at the station and rental fees of commercial space. According to the
experiences of other Asian countries, non-fare revenue is assumed as 5% of fare revenue.
c) Expenditure
O&M cost is considered as expenditure in operation period.
d) Results of preliminary financial analysis
Table 5-13 shows annual demand, revenue and expenditure of representative years. The results of
preliminary financial analysis are shown in Table 5-14 and Table 5-16. As a result, the FIRR is
found to be 1.3% and is considered financially viable compared with 1.1% of WACC.
Year
Table 5-13 Annual Demand, Revenue and Expenditure
Annual Demand
Revenue
Expenditure
(thousand/y)
(ten million Yen)
(ten million Yen)
2019
17,150
163.7
110.6
2030
24,150
358.6
120.1
2048
30,800
633.7
Source: Study Team
5-13
156.8
Table 5-14 Results of Financial Analysis
Financial Internal Rate of Return
Weighted Average Cost of Financial Net Present Value
(Project FIRR)
Capital (WACC)
(FNPV)
1.3 %
1.1 %
2,820 million Yen
Source: Study Team
In the above financial analysis, some uncertain factors still remain in the adopted values
(investment cost, revenue and expenditure). In order to determine the financial stability of the
project, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to observe variations in the results by assuming
fluctuations in each value in accordance with their respective unreliability. The results of the
sensitivity analysis are shown in Table 5-15. The FIRR in the case of investment cost and
expenditure increase or revenue decrease, the Project FIRR would under the WACC (1.1%)
and not financially feasible.
Table 5-15
Expenditure
Results of Sensitivity Analysis
-10%
-5%
0%
+5%
+10%
+10%
2.4%
2.1%
1.8%
1.5%
1.3%
+5%
2.1%
1.8%
1.5%
1.3%
1.0%
0%
1.8%
1.5%
1.3%
1.0%
0.8%
-5%
1.6%
1.3%
1.0%
0.7%
0.5%
-10%
1.3%
1.0%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
Revenue
Source: Study Team
5-14
Table 5-16
Financial Cashflow
Seq.
No.
Year
Investment Cost
-4
-3
-2
-1
1
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
1,617.0
2,187.5
2,345.7
596.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
110.6
1,617.0
2,187.5
2,345.7
596.0
110.6
-1,617.0
-2,187.5
-2,345.7
-596.0
53.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
163.7
2
3
2020
2021
0.0
0.0
111.4
112.2
111.4
112.2
53.8
54.4
165.1
166.6
4
5
2022
2023
0.0
0.0
113.0
113.9
113.0
113.9
55.1
55.7
168.1
169.6
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
248.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
114.8
116.5
117.2
118.0
118.8
119.7
120.1
120.5
121.0
121.5
122.0
122.4
363.2
116.5
117.2
118.0
118.8
119.7
120.1
120.5
121.0
121.5
122.0
122.4
-150.3
107.3
117.9
129.1
140.9
221.5
238.5
240.8
243.1
245.4
290.0
292.7
212.9
223.8
235.2
247.1
259.7
341.2
358.6
361.3
364.1
366.9
412.0
415.1
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
0.0
863.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2,802.3
122.9
122.9
123.5
986.9
149.5
149.5
150.2
150.2
150.8
150.8
151.5
151.5
152.2
152.2
153.0
153.0
153.7
153.7
154.5
154.5
155.2
155.2
156.0
156.0
156.8
-2,645.5
Source: Study Team
295.4
-565.3
279.4
336.5
344.3
352.2
360.3
368.5
437.7
447.3
457.0
466.8
3,279.1
418.3
421.6
428.9
486.7
495.1
503.8
512.5
521.4
591.5
601.7
612.2
622.8
633.7
O&M Cost
Total Cost
5-15
Net Revenue
Annual Revenue
Chapter 6
Planned Project Schedule
6.1
Overview
The implementation schedule lays out plans for the schedule from the issuance of this report through
the preparation stage, construction stage and operation commencement preparation stage until the
commencement of operation. Implementation schedule is shown in Table 6-1.
6-1
Table 6-1
2012
3
6
2013
9
3
6
Implementation Schedule
2014
9
3
6
2015
9
3
6
2016
9
Submittal of APM system study report
1. Preparation Stage
(1) Selection of consultant
(2) Feasibility study
(3) EIA study and disclosure by Govt.
(4) Preparation of resettlement action plan
(5) Award of APM project by Govt.
(6) Process for loan agreement
(7) Basic design and construction plan
(8) Tender process for selection of contractor
(9) Tender preparation by contractor
(10) Tender evaluation and contract with contractor
(11) Land acquisition, resettlement
(12) Relocation of utilities
2. Construction Stage
(1) Mobilization
(2) Detailed design
(3) Structure work
(4) Station building work
(5) Depot construction work
(6) Depot facility work
(7) Signaling, communication and power supply system
(8) Rolling stock
(9) Running test and commissioning
3. Operation Preparation Stage
(1) Selection of management organization
(2) Recruitment and preparation of organization staff
(3) Preparation of operation rules and regulations
(4) Training and practice of operation and maintenance
4. Revenue Service Stage
Source: Study Team
6-2
3
6
2017
9
3
6
2018
9
3
6
2019
9
3
6
2020
9
3
6
9
6.2
Details of Implementation Schedule
6.2.1 Preparation Stage
The preparation stage is the period of preparation work from after submitting the report for the
commencement of the project to the commencement of construction including bidding contract
work.
(1) Consultant Selection
After the examination of the APM system project is approved through the submission of this report,
the Indonesian government (Ministry of public works) will select consultants to implement
feasibility studies and EIA studies.
(2) Feasibility Study
Feasibility studies are implemented to examine the potential of the project.
(3) EIA Study
EIA studies will be carried out in the same manner and the results publicly released.
(4) Project Approval
The Indonesian government examines the results of the feasibility studies and EIA studies and
approves the implementation of the APM system project.
(5) Procurement of Funds
After approval of the APM system project, the Indonesian government will procure funding for the
project. And the PPP organization will procure the funding for the project.
(6) Basic Design and Construction Plan Creation
The project basic design and construction plans are created.
(7) Bid Preparation and Procedures
Books for bid materials are created based on the basic design and construction planning, and public
announcement of contractor selection and screening is carried out. In this stage, the bidding
procedure for the selection of PPP organization is implemented. After the examination, the PPP
organization selects the consultant by competitive bidding.
(8) Contractor Bidding Preparation
Contractors create bidding books.
(9) Bidding Results and Contracts
The period from bidding result evaluation, negotiation with contractors until contract is settled.
(10) Land Acquisition, Resettlement, Utility Transfer, etc.
Lands required for construction are expropriated and resettlement as required based on EIA study
results. At the same time, any utilities which interfere with construction are relocated. This must all
be completed before construction commences.
6-3
6.2.2 Construction Stage
The construction stage is the period for APM system construction, integration test, test running and
handover.
(1) Construction Preparation Period
Construction preparation period after contract is completed.
(2) Detailed Design
The period during which contractor detailed design is carried out. Construction is then implemented
after the detailed design by the consultant is approved.
(3) Structural Construction
The period of construction on superstructures and substructures. The construction work from this
period is divided into several intervals, and construction is then carried out in parallel.
(4) Station Building Construction
The period of station building construction. As with structural construction, construction on each
station is carried out simultaneously in parallel.
(5) Depot Construction
Construction period for overall depot foundation improvement, tracks, roadwork, operation control
building and inspection and maintenance facilities.
(6) Depot Facility Construction
Construction of facilities including depot inspection and maintenance plants, power supply facilities,
signal telecommunications and substations. Depot facility construction should be completed before
vehicle delivery.
(7) Power, Signal and Telecommunications System Construction
The period of construction on power, signal and telecommunications systems. After design, each
piece of equipment is manufactured at plants, then installed sequentially in completed structural
construction and station construction sections.
(8) Rolling Stock
APM vehicles are designed and manufactured at plants in Japan. The manufactured vehicles are
disassembled and transported, then delivered to the depot inspection and repair plants, reassembled
and then inspected and adjusted accordingly. The vehicle delivery period is expected to be 3 months
from the completion of the depot facility construction.
(9) Test Running and Handover
After the completion of structural construction and system construction, in order to verify that
operation can be carried out safely and reliably, individual system tests, comprehensive system tests,
test runs, driving test and other tests are implemented.
6-4
6.2.3 Operation Preparation Stage
During the operation commencement stage, APM system project operator selection, project
organization composition, and creation of various operation regulations are carried out.
(1) Selection of APM System Project Organization
The Indonesian government selects the operation and maintenance organization of the APM system.
(2) Securing Personnel and Project Organization Formation
The personnel required for the operation of the APM system are secured and the organization
required for the operation of the system is formed.
(3) Creation of Operation Regulations, Employment Regulations, Operation Schedule, Instruction
Manuals, etc.
The operation regulations, employment regulations, operation schedule, instruction manuals, etc.
required for APM system operation are created.
(4) Education and Training of Employees of Implementation Organizations
Education on operation regulations, employment regulations, operation schedule, instruction
manuals, etc. and training required for APM system operation are carried out for the APM system
employees.
(5) Operation Commencement Preparation
Preparation is carried out for commencement of operation.
6.2.4 Revenue Service Stage
The operating and maintenance organization carries out operation.
6-5
Chapter 7
Implementing Organization
7.1
Scheme for Project Implementation
The "Affermage" model of the Scheme-A shown in Figure 7-1 among the project schemes examined
in Chapter 9 is considered to have high project feasibility.
Figure 7-1
Indonesian
Government
Asset
Civil structures
E&M
Rolling Stock
Project Scheme (Scheme-A: Affermage)
JICA
ODA Loan
Repayment
EPC Contract
Construction Contract
EPC
Contractor
Constructor
Foreign/Local
Investor
JBIC
Representation
PPP Contract
Construction of Civil Structures,
Procurement of E&M and Rolling Stock
Dividends
Repayment
Project Finance
Investment
PMU
Loan
Contract Management
Bank
Repayment
SPC
Fare
Viability Gap Fund
Passengers
Service
O&M
Contract
O&M
Contractor
PPP contract for
Source: Study Team
The above figure shows that project implementation organization which SPC borrows facilities from
the government based on the PPP contract, utilizes private know how at its maximum, and performs
the efficient transport service provision, fare collection, and operation and maintenance of facilities.
It is considered that private sector participation in management leads to creation of employment and
contribute to activation of economic activities. Thus, it will be desirable to undertake project through
government and private sector linkage, and clarifying government-and-private sector roles in each
project stage from work contents, its range, and private capability will lead to successful project.
7-1
7.2
Project Competency of Implementation Organization
This project-execution organization is assumed to be the Bekasi regency of west Jawa State, and the
certification governing legal authority is assumed to be the Ministry of Transportation and
Directorate General of Railways, Ministry of Transportation. The Directorate General of Railways,
Ministry of Transportation is well versed in formalities as an implementation window of various
ODA projects including yen credit about the railroad projects in Indonesia, and is considered to have
project competency. However, for commercialization of this project, it will be important to examine
the important matters towards project implementation of Table 7-1.
Table 7-1
Important Matters towards Project Implementation
Important matters
Check of project
implementation plan
Contents of examination
- Project purpose and necessity
- Check of precondition items
Detailed examination
of commercialization
- Detailed study for project
components (checks of facilities
scale and demand by conducting
F/S )
- Determining basic policy for
facilities maintenance
- Arrangement of project promotion
issues
- Examination of project related laws
and regulations
- Examination of PPP scheme related
laws and regulations
- Examination of preferential
treatment of taxation system
- Compliance with environmental
guideline
- Selection of project scheme
- Examination of project profitability
- Financing of initial investment
Check of related laws
and regulations
Check of preconditions
Arrangement of project
scheme
Adjustment of related
personnel and
interview survey
Evaluation and
selection of project
implementation
schemes
Setting of project
implementation
schedule
- Creation of implementation
schedule
- Selection of project scheme
- Setting of project scope and project
period
- Explanation of project scheme to
the concerned agencies
- Explanatory material creation to
donors
- Quantitative analysis (efficiency)
- Qualitative analysis (securing of
quality)
- Comprehensive evaluation of the
project schemes
- Future detail project schedule
Source: Study Team
7-2
Viewpoints
- Establishment of project
regulatory authorities
- Sharing in the organs
concerned of basic policies
- User's-needs study
- Balance of demand and project
physical scale
- Project execution agency
- Check of existing related laws
- Early establishment of the new
systems
- Deliberations and adjustment
of preconditions of approval
- Cost-benefit analysis
- Donor's requirement
arrangement
- Determination of whole project
schedule
- Examination of the PPP
implementation scheme
- Securing profitability
- Interviewing companies which
can take part in the project
- Re-evaluation of the project
scheme
- Specification, sharing / evasion
measures of risk
7.3 Roles and Risk Sharing between Public and Private Sector
Although raising private sector capital is indispensable, at present in many parts of Indonesia, overall
situation surrounding the financial aspect and the legal system aspect where international investors
and financial institutions can subscribe a long-term business fund is insufficient for PPP projects like
other Asian nations. Also, due to a complicated business scheme and obscurity of government and
private roles and risk assignment, and insufficient support scheme by public funds, it is reported that
PPP projects has higher difficulty as compared with general private investment projects.
In the position from the private sector side, when deviation between the recovery level of project
cost and the fare set up from the public utility charge policy etc. occurs, securing of the profitability
of a project becomes difficult and it makes the project unstable. It is necessary to eliminate this gap
and to strengthen marketability of the project for improving business potential. It is desirable to
apply Availability Payment method as one of these policies, Availability Payment is a compensation
paid to SPC offering public service which conforms to the predetermined standards regardless of
traffic volume of passengers and fare revenues from government, and is effective in reduction of a
demand risk and a fare setting risk. Role sharing between government and private sector in this
project is considered as shown in Table 7-2.
Table 7-2 Roles of Public and Private Sector
Public Roles
Private Roles
- Preparation of Organization and legal
system for the APM system project
- Implementation of F/S and detailed
design
- Project approval
- Financing for infrastructure construction
- Selection of project implementation
companies and conclusion of the
concession contract
- Appropriation of land
- Deliberations and approval of the fare
system
- Re-examination of the land use plan along
the route
- Construction and system configuration
- Specification, evasion and imputation of
an assumed risk
- Project management and monitoring
- Examination of the project scheme
- Conclusion of the concession contract with
the government
- Specification, evasion and transfer of
operation & maintenance risk
- Operation & maintenance work
management
Source: Study Team
In operation implementation of this project, it is important to specify a risk, grasp the occurrence
causes and take evasion / transfer measures. Generally there are three kinds of risks in project risks,
(1) political risk, (2) commercial risk, and (3) natural disaster risk and (1) and (3) are treated as the
inevitable risks. Presumable risks in this project are shown in Table 7-3.
7-3
A risk in each stage is assumed beforehand, a pattern is created, and when neither evasion nor
imputation can be performed, it is important to establish the organization which takes all possible
measures for project success such as not going on to the next stage etc.
Table 7-3
Stage
Political risks
Economic risks
Common
Social risks
Partner risks
Natural disaster risks
Planning
stage
Plan risks
Types of Risks
Types of Risks
Change of power, parliamentary
recognition, etc.
Regulations and approval risks
Taxation system change risks
Government support failure
Price risks
Interest rate risks
Exchange risks
Funding risks
Protest by residents, environmental
problem, etc.
Breach of contract by partners
Earthquake, thunderbolt, fire, tidal
wave, typhoon, flood, eruption,
landslide, cave-in, epidemic,
contamination
Defects, such as soil survey at the time
of bidding
Latent defects
Application
Inevitable risks
Inevitable risks
Inevitable risks
Inevitable risks
Inevitable risks
Bid participating risks (tender cost)
Land appropriation cost and delay
Construction
stage
Construction risks
Competition
infrastructure risks
Demand risks
Fare setting risks
Operation
stage
O&M risks
Others
Construction delay of access road etc.
Delay by the government side design
change
Construction delay
Cost overrun
Requirement specification
nonconformance
Accidents under construction etc.
Competition infrastructure construction
of adjoining land
With no minimum demand guarantee
Breach of contract matters, such as fare
amendment
Rise of O&M cost
Rise of life cycle cost
Damage to institutions
Breach of government contract
Breach of contract by operating
companies
Source: Study Team
7-4
Inevitable risks
Inevitable risks
Inevitable risks
Inevitable risks
Chapter 8
Technical Advantages of Japanese Companies
8.1
Assumed Participation Form of Companies of Our Country
(Equity participation, materials and equipment supply,
management of institutions, etc.)
From the scheme assumed in Chapter 9, the positioning, roles and participation form of Japanese
companies are shown in Figure 8-1 and Table 8-1.
Figure 8-1
General Configuration of PPP Project
Materials and equipment supplier
Payment
Materials and equipment
supply
Dividend
PPP Agreement
Indonesia Government
Construction
Equity participant / Sponsor
Special Purpose Company (SPC)
Materials and
equipment supply
Payment
EPC contractor
Equity participation
Payment
Materials and equipment supplier
O&M
Payment
(O&M)
Source: Study Team
Table 8-1
Assumed Participation of Japanese Companies
Participation form
Equity participant
/ Sponsor
Materials and
equipment supplier
EPC contractor
Operation and
maintenance
(O&M)
Outline
When taking part in the planning as a sponsor, an additional role of
materials and equipment supplier or management and maintenance
may be possible.
Assumed types of industry: Trading companies, APM related
manufacturers.
Taking part in the planning as E&M of the companies of our country
and supplier of vehicle bodies is mainly assumed. As for the
implementation scheme, construction will be shared by the
government and the private sector, and the supply destination will be
divided into the Indonesia government and SPC.
Assumed types of industry: Trading companies, APM related
manufacturers.
It is possible that the general contractor of our country takes part in
the planning as an EPC contractor. However, when plural EPC
contractors participate due to segmentation of the construction zone, it
may be understood that efficiency and profitability become low.
Assumed type of industry: General contractors.
Regarding software systems, such as operation and maintenance of
APM system, and education and training, support by Japan is
expected and participation of the urban railway operators of Japan can
be assumed.
Assumed type of industry: Japanese urban railway operators.
Source: Study Team
8-1
8.2
Advantages for Japanese Companies for Project
Implementation (Technological side, the financial side)
8.2.1 Introductory Performances of APM System
In Japan, since Kobe's port liner was introduced as a driverless APM system for the first time in
1981, new routes have been opened in various places. As of 2011, seven routes shown in Table 8-2
are being operated as a medium capacity transport system in the city.
Table 8-2 APM System Introduction Performances in Japan
1981
Line length
(km)
10.8
Number
of stations
12
Rokko-liner Line
1990
4.5
6
Nanko Port Town Line
1981
7.9
10
Kanazawa Seaside Line
1989
10.6
14
Astram Line
1994
18.4
21
Rinkai Line
(Yurikamome)
1995
14.8
16
Nippori Toneri Line
2008
9.8
13
No.
Business operators
1.
Kobe New Transit Co., Ltd.
Port-liner Line
2.
Kobe New Transit Co., Ltd.
Osaka Municipal
Transportation Bureau
Yokohama New Transit
Co., Ltd.
Hiroshima Rapid Transit
Co., Ltd.
Tokyo Waterfront New
Transit Yurikamome
Bureau of Transportation
Tokyo Metropolitan
Government
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Lines
Opened
Source: Study Team
APM vehicles overseas export performance is shown in Table 8-3. It can be said that the Japanese
companies have already had sufficient global competitiveness as it is also concentrating on
development of the vehicles for export as the following introductory performances show.
Table 8-3 APM Vehicles Export Performance for Overseas
1.
Republic of Singapore
Sengkang Line
2002
Line length
(km)
10.7
2.
2004
11.8
23
3.
2006
6.4
16
4.
Republic of Korea
People's Republic of
China
the United States of
America
America
America
America
United Arab Emirates
Punggol Line
Singapore Changi
International Airport
Incheon International Airport
Hong Kong International
Airport
Washington Dulles
International Airport
The Hartsfield-Jackson
Atlanta International Airport
2008
0.9
9
1998
1.3
8
2009
3.5
29
2009
2.3
12
Miami International Airport
2010
1.1
20
2011
2.3
8
2008
5.2
18
No.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Nations
Line
Miami International Airport
(MIA)
Dubai International Airport
Source: Study Team
8-2
Opened
Number
of trains
18
8.2.2
Advantages of Japanese Companies
As APM system related technologies, APM vehicles, dedicated track, signalling system,
communication equipment, power equipment, station facilities, train operation control system,
maintenance facilities, and workshops are listed. The engineering capabilities of Japan are very
highly evaluated as the performance of cases in recent years both in and outside the country show.
Also, the APM system supplied in and outside the country has secured a high level of safety.
For APM vehicles, development of vehicles for export is also underway which can be adapted for
individual requirement and specifications such as collision safety performance, and fire-resistant
standard practices of each route. Also, changes of the vehicles organization according to
transportation demand and changes of the exterior and interior design according to the operator's
needs are also possible. Software systems, such as management, control of maintenance, and
education and training, are also considered to be possible to support the first APM system
introduction in Indonesia by the high expertise and know-how of Japan, including the pilot run
before commencement of operation and maintenance training for staffs.
8-3
8.3
Necessary Measures in order to Promote
Japanese Companies
Since the PPP project operator’s selection in Indonesia passes through international competitive
bidding, orders received by the Japanese companies are not guaranteed. However, the following
matters can be listed as measures required in order to promote Japanese companies receiving orders.
(1) Preferential treatment of taxation system
Between Indonesia and Japan, reduction of the rate of import duties has already been implemented
by the Japanese Indonesia economic partnership agreement (EPA). In this project implementation,
tariff rate reduction is desirable on the materials and equipment supply from Japan especially E&M,
or APM vehicles related equipment.
(2) Practical use of public finance of Japan
The yen loan and export financing of Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) which are
listed in Chapter 9 as financing methods promote supply of materials and equipment or technologies
from Japan, it is considered that practical use of such public finance is useful not only for the
Japanese companies but also the Indonesia government.
(3) Continuous support by Japan
Continuous involvement of the Japanese government and the Japanese companies from the
preliminary survey stage to the resulting project formation may lead to strengthening ties with
Indonesia. Furthermore, it is considered to be important for the Japanese companies to build
cooperation with the Indonesia companies who become local partners in the initial stage of the
project plan.
8-4
Chapter 9
Financial Outlook
9.1
Examination of Financial Source and Implementation
Scheme
9.1.1 Implementation Scheme
For the implementation of this project, there are fully public project where public funds from the
public sector and a method where the private sector participates through a Public Private Partnership
(PPP) approach. PPP is a scheme where private sector funding, technologies, etc. are used for public
services. However in Asia, PPP is used for infrastructure project that commercially non-viable and
government support is essential, so it is difficult to obtain private sector participation in PPP projects
without government support.
Table 9-1
Project Commercial Viability and Funding Sources
Potential for private sector
Project commercial viability
participation based on
Funding sources
with/without government support
Extremely low commercial
Obtaining private sector
Support from government
viability
participation is difficult even with of relevant country, ODA
(non-integrating gap)
government support
support from overseas
Commercially non-viable if
there is no private sector and
government cooperation
(commercially non-viable)
Commercially viable
(Commercially viable)
Obtaining private sector
participation is difficult without
government support
Possible to obtain private sector
participation even without
government support
Source: Study Team
Public private partnership
Privatization of project,
etc.
In the "PPP Policy and Regulation in Indonesia" by BAPPENAS (Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan
Nasional) shown in Figure 9-1, the roles in Indonesian PPP between the public sector and private
sector are classified into 3 levels according to project profitability.
If the project profitability is "Financially NOT viable", construction of facilities is completely under
the jurisdiction of the government. If "Financially Marginal", the private sector also participates in
construction, however government assistance is necessary. "Regular PPP" where the private sector
carries out uniform handling from construction to operation is only applicable in "Financially
Viable".
Figure 9-1 Fund Procurement in PPP Schemes
Project Feasibility
Scheme
1
Economically Viable
Financially NOT Viable
Private
Public
2
Economically Viable
Financially Marginal
3
Economically Viable
Financially Viable
Private
Public Private
Private
Private
Hybrid Financing
PPP with
Government support
Regular PPP
Construction
Source: "PPP Policy and Regulation in Indonesia" Ministry of National development Planning /
BAPPENAS, 2011.02)
9-1
Table 9-2 shows candidates for implementation schemes of proposed project. In this table private
sector participation is shaded and ranked highest public sector contribution. The private sector
establishes a special purpose company (SPC) to carry out the scope specified in the PPP contract for
participation in the project.
Construction jurisdiction is divided by civil works and E&M/rolling stock referring similar railway
cases. For standard railways, cases where further division can be made between E&M and rolling
stock can be considered, however for proposed system, E&M and rolling stock specifications are
closely linked, these are generally procured as a one package.
Table 9-2
Candidates for Implementation Scheme
Construction/Operation Division of Roles
Scheme
Public Sector
Implemented by
government as fully
public project.
A) works and procurement
of E&M/rolling stock
PPP with
works and
Government B)
Support
E&M/rolling stock
C) works
Private Sector
None
Public Project
None
Regular PPP D)
Construction
O&M
E&M/
Organization
Civil works
rolling stock
Public
Public funds Public funds
managed
organization
O&M
Part of procurement of
E&M/rolling stock
and O&M
Public funds
Public funds
SPC
Public funds
Public Private
funds funds
SPC
Private funds
SPC
Private funds
SPC
Procurement of
E&M/rolling stock
Public funds
and O&M
works,
procurement of
Private funds
E&M/rolling stock
and O&M
Source: Study Team
In this study, the implementation schemes of scheme- A, B and C is examined.
As noted, in Asia PPP requires government support, and this project in particular is an urban
transport project with low profitability, so scheme-D, which has the private sector carrying out
uniform handling from construction to operation, is not viable. From Figure 9-1, assuming this
project falls into the "Financially Marginal", "PPP with Government Support" (Scheme-A, B and C)
would be applicable.
Similar to Scheme-A, it can be considered where a publicly managed organization carries out the
O&M project and the private sector serves as an outsourcer for that work. The project remuneration
received by the private sector is paid by the government, and both income and expenditures for
project activities are attributed to government accounting. The financial feasibility of this format can
be concluded to be the same as when a 100% ridership guarantee or availability payment by the
government is set as conditions for Scheme-A. Here, availability payment means a payment for
transport performance satisfying the required service level, and irrespective of demand and fare
revenue.
Scheme-B aims to mitigate funding procurement burden on the private sector during the construction
stage by having the government carry out a portion of E&M and rolling stock procurement, in turn
jump-starting private sector business motivation to participate in the project, thereby increasing the
9-2
pace of project implementation. E&M and rolling stock are procured together as a single package
proposed by the SPC and the costs incurred are shared by the government and private sector.
9.1.2 Typical PPP Financing Structure
In schemes A, B and C the government establishes a Project Management Unit (PMU) which
manages the project for the government. In addition, in the first PPP case in Indonesia (Central Java
coal fired power plant) for the long term payment capacity of the ordering party for the term of the
contract, the PPP support organization Indonesia Infrastructure Guarantee Fund (IIGF) established
by the government provided a government guarantee and it is desirable to have this same
organization provide the same function in this project as well.
The SPC which can best control the various risks at each stage of design, execution, operation and
maintenance management undertakes the relevant work, and the SPC works towards improving
project efficiency by centralizing all of these tasks. The SPC functions as an intermediary contract
contact point between the various companies and also functions as the contact point for procurement
of private sector funds as well as carrying out fund procurement from financial institutions in
addition to investments from participating companies. In addition, because each PPP project task is
passed through commissioned companies by contract, the SPC operation system and operating costs
are generally extremely compact.
Figure 9-2
Typical PPP Financing Structure
Shareholders
Dividends +
Interest
Indonesian
Government
Principal +
Interest
Financial
Contracts
Investment
Loan
PPP
Agreement
Banks
SPC
Service
Passengers
Fare
Representation
Contract
Management,
Guarantee
EPC
EPC
Contract
Contract
PMU
IIGF
Service
supplier 1
Operation &
Maintenance
Contract
Service
supplier 2
O&M
Contractor
EPC
Contractor
Source: Study Team
Service
Contracts
Service
supplier 3
Service
supplier x
9.1.3 Scheme-A: Affermage
(1) Overview
A method where the consignor (government) carries out construction of facilities and the consignee
(private sector) operates the public service and manages facilities is called "Affermage" or
"Concession without construction". In this study to classify Scheme-B and D, Scheme-A is noted as
"Affermage".
Affermage differs from concession in that the required facilities, etc. are established by the consignor.
In addition, it usually has shorter contract terms than the concession. The majority of consigned
public services in France recently are carried out using this method. The structure of Scheme-A is
9-3
shown in Figure 9-3. This figure assumes contribution of yen loans for the construction and
procurement of E&M/rolling stock under the government's jurisdiction.
Figure 9-3
Indonesian
Government
Asset
Civil structures
E&M
Rolling Stock
Scheme-A : Affermage
JICA
ODA Loan
Repayment
EPC Contract
EPC
Contractor
Constructor
Foreign/Local
Investor
JBIC
Representation
PPP Contract
Dividends
Repayment
Project Finance
Investment
PMU
Loan
SPC
Contract Management
Bank
Repayment
Fare
Viability Gap Fund
Passengers
Service
O&M
Contract
O&M
Contractor
PPP contract for
Source: Study Team
The SPC borrows facilities from the government based on the PPP contract, and carries out
provision of services to passengers, fare collection and facility maintenance management. The
Viability Gap Fund (VGF) in the figure is an assistance fund for covering the gap between the
standard fare revenue at which the project is formed and the actual collectable fare revenue.
(2) Investment Costs of SPC
SPC investment applicable items are shown below.
1) Proposal Costs for Unsolicited Proposals
These are costs incurred by companies taking action and making a proposal to ministries and
municipalities when there is no request for such from the government ("unsolicited") in order to
implement projects which are not posted in the master plan created by the ministries and
municipalities as PPP projects. These costs are estimated to include feasibility study cost, EIA cost
and proposal creation costs.
In order to ensure fairness in procurement for unsolicited proposals as well, international
infrastructure PPP standards are followed, and international competitive bidding is carried out. In
Indonesia this has the merits that a special evaluation score is assigned to the same proposer, the
same evaluation conditions as the top bidder are applied, and FS cost, etc. assistance can be
provided even for unsuccessful bids.
2) PPP Bid Standard Costs
Preparations related to private company PPP proposals starts several months before public
offering and EOI (Expression of Interest). The time required for the PPP bidding process (from
9-4
call for bidders to conclusion of contract) is normally 10-12 months for most open bid processes,
with more complex projects taking 24 months for an assumed average of 18 months.
In addition, costs for bidding are approximately 1% of the total construction costs per each bidder
resulting from costs such as internal personnel expenses, fees for legal personnel and financial
advisors hired from international law offices and major financial institutions as well as costs, etc.
from creation of materials necessary for studies, design etc.
3) Other
SPC establishment costs, education and training costs and finance formation costs will be
generated. SPC establishment costs are SPC establishment proceeding and general costs.
Education and training costs are costs for recruiting of personnel and their education and training
before the start of the project. Payment will be required for costs for invitation of overseas
engineers and personnel third country technical training, as well as power and materials costs
incidental to the education and training.
Finance formation costs are fees from financial institutions for forming project finances. This is
estimated at 1% of the amount borrowed from financial institutions.
(3) Issues of Scheme-A
1) In this scheme, facility construction is carried out by the government, and operation is
consigned to a private sector with project operation capabilities. Because the local
government does not have experience as a proposed system operator, this is appropriate for
the proposals of this scheme. On the other hand, more efficient project management can be
had with the SPC because VFM is optimized and maximized as a PPP and the project is
continually developed.
2)
Because the private sector does not make any construction investment, compared to projects
which include construction, the private sector investment scale is small, however an internal
rate of return which stimulates investment is required. In addition, public sector exchange
and demand risk shares and viability gap avoidance necessity all exist in this scheme as
common PPP issues.
3)
Both the government and the SPC require low financial cost fund procurement. In this
scheme, the SPC has no assets, so high project profitability is required as a project financing
guarantee.
4)
Private sector organization selection is carried out as international competitive bidding in
accordance with PPP standards. In urban transport operation projects, French KEOLIS and
VEOLIA companies are major presences. The formation of a competitive SPC which takes
advantage of the country's experience and superiority in operation is necessary.
5)
In order to increase the incentive for private sector business SPC participation, it is preferable
for participation in this project to be tied to acquisition of EPC contracts during next phase.
6)
From the point of view of procuring public financing in Japan it is preferable for the Japanese
businesses to become major stakeholders in the project, such as E&M/rolling stock suppliers
or project operators.
9-5
9.1.4 Scheme-C: Concession
(1) Overview
Concession is a method where the consignor (government) consigns the construction, management
and operation of facilities along with provision of public services to a consignee (private sector). In
the contract with the consignor, the consignee carries out construction and installation of buildings
and facilities required for projects and provide public services for a specified period and usage fees
directly collected from users are treated as project remuneration. In this study Schemes-B and C is
under the concession category. Figure 9-4 shows the structure of Scheme-C.
In Scheme-C, as a PPP infrastructure project (discrete type) which provides ODA funding, the
government constructs civil engineering facilities as public works through ODA funding. The SPC
borrows facilities from the government based on the PPP contract in addition to procuring E&M and
rolling stock, and carries out provision of services to passengers, fare collection and facility
maintenance management.
Figure 9-4
Indonesian
Government
Scheme-C: Concession
Construction of Civil Structures
JICA
ODA Loan
Repayment
Constructor
Asset
Civil structures
Foreign/Local
Investor
JBIC
Representation
PPP Contract
Dividends
Repayment
Project Finance
Investment
PMU
Loan
SPC
Contract Management
Viability Gap Fund
Asset
E&M
Rolling Stock
EPC
Contract
Bank
Repayment
Fare
Passengers
Service
O&M
Contract
EPC
O&M
Contractor
Contractor
PPP contract for EPC of E&M
and Rolling Stock,
Source: Study Team
(2) SPC Investment Costs
SPC investment costs are E&M/rolling stock procurement costs, and preparation costs mentioned in
Scheme-A.
(3) Issues of Scheme-C
1) The funds of the SPC to procure E&M/rolling stock are an issue. High project profitability is
required as a project financing guarantee. In order to mitigate exchange and demand risks
and avoid viability gaps, assistance from the government is required for operation costs.
2)
From the point of view of procuring public financing in Japan, it is preferable for the
Japanese companies to become major stakeholders in the project, such as E&M/rolling stock
suppliers or operators.
9-6
3)
Efficient project management can be had with the SPC because VFM is optimized and
maximized.
4)
In international competitive bidding for organization selection, in addition to providing
guidance on the E&M/rolling stock which utilizes the country's superior technology, it is
necessary to form an SPC which is competitive in terms of project operation capacity.
5)
In order to increase the incentive for private sector business SPC participation, it is preferable
for participation in this project to be tied to acquisition of EPC contracts during next phase.
9.1.5 Scheme-B: Concessions (with minimum private share of investment cost)
(1) Overview
In Scheme-B, in order to mitigate the private share of investment cost, the procurement costs for
E&M/rolling stock are shared between government and private sector. The jurisdiction of the
government is a portion of civil engineering facility construction and part of E&M/rolling stock
procurement. The SPC is responsible for a portion of the procurement of E&M/rolling stock and
borrows facilities from the government based on the PPP contract, and carries out provision of
services to passengers, fare collection and facility maintenance management.
In this scheme public funds and private funds are invested as a PPP infrastructure project which
provides ODA funding. The investment format is integrated as it has private sector and public funds
invested in 1 area.
Figure 9-5
Scheme- B: Concessions (with minimum private share of investment cost)
Indonesian
Government
Property
Civil structures
E&M
Rolling Stock
JICA
ODA Loan
Repayment
EPC Contract
EPC
Contractor
Constructor
Foreign/Local
Investor
JBIC
Representation
PPP Contract
Dividends
Repayment
Project Finance
Investment
PMU
Loan
SPC
Contract Management
Viability Gap Fund
Property
E&M
Rolling Stock
EPC
Contract
Bank
Repayment
Fare
Passengers
Service
O&M
Contract
EPC
O&M
Contractor
Contractor
PPP contract for EPC of E&M
and Rolling Stock,
Source: Study Team
(2) SPC Investment Costs
SPC investment costs are a portion of E&M/rolling stock procurement costs and preparation costs
mentioned in Scheme-A. The share ratio for E&M/rolling stock procurement cost between the SPC
9-7
and the government is examined in the financial analysis.
(3) Issues of Scheme-B
1) Compared to scheme C, the burden for construction investment for the private sector is
lessened. However, public sector exchange and demand risk shares and viability gap
avoidance necessity all exist in this scheme as common PPP issues.
2)
The requirement for efficient project management by the SPC is a common issue with other
schemes.
3)
In addition, the positioning of Japanese companies as important stakeholders, provision of
internationally competitive proposals and SPC formation, and preference for participation in
this project to be tied to acquisition of EPC contracts during Phase 2 extension, are the same
as in other schemes.
9-8
9.2
Public and Private Financing
9.2.1 Public Financing in Japan
Infrastructure projects require large amount of initial investment costs and the projects involve risks,
so it is difficult to finance by private funds. For those reasons, public financing plays an important
role. The public financing for supporting overseas infrastructure projects in Japan are divided into
ODA (Official Development Assistance) and OOF (Other Official Finance). Of these, the public
financing types that can be expected to be applied to this project are yen loan, untied loan and
project finance. Overviews are shown in Table 9-3.
Table 9-3 Public Financing in Japan Expected to be Applied to the Project
Type
ODA Yen
Loan
OOF
Untied
Loan
Project
Finance
Overview
Aimed at economical development support and financial
support between governments.
When public funds and private funds are invested as a
PPP infrastructure project which provides ODA financing,
there is a traditional format where the investment areas are
classified and delineated (discrete type) and a format
where private sector and public funds are invested and
coexist in same area (integrated type).
Loans made to foreign governments etc. where overseas
projects carried out in the country and facilities funding
loans in the form of untied loans which do not limit
suppliers. The purpose of the loan will be business
environmental considerations consisting of support of the
activities of Japanese companies. However, the loan
conditions are tight than for ODA.
Project finance is the loan for project implementation
based on the project assets and various rights on contracts.
Repayments are from only cash flow created by the
project (income), and there is no government, etc.
payment guarantee for repayment. This is different from
corporate financing based on the former borrower
finances, details and credit capability, and in principal
there is no payment guarantee for parent companies, etc.
Source: Study Team
Notes
project
Public funds of Scheme-A
Public funds of Scheme-B
(discrete type)
Public funds of Scheme-C
(integrated type)
project
Public funds of
Scheme-A, B and C
Private funds for
Scheme-A, B and C
In Japanese ODA loan, Indonesia is categorized in middle income class, and applicable such as
STEP (Special Terms for Economic Partnership) and general terms (untied) loan. Although there are
some priority projects of transport sector in Indonesia. But Japanese ODA loan is valuable long-term
and low-interest financial source, and recommend to continuous consideration for adopting. An
untied loan of JBIC (Japan Bank for International Cooperation) is applicable for public fund.
Project Finance is financing scheme for private funds. JBIC’s export loan (Buyer’s credit (B/C),
Bank loan (B/L)) and overseas investment loans will be adopted as the project finance based loan
scheme. In Indonesia, JBIC has financing experiences with project finance base in steam-power
generation and mining development project.
9.2.2 Other Financial Sources
International financial institutions such as Asia Development Bank (ADB) and Islamic Development
Bank (IDB) etc are expected as financial sources. Generally, long-term fund of Indonesian
commercial banks are limited and difficult to use.
9-9
9.2.3 General Financing Sources
Financing sources and terms expected applying to general infrastructure project are shown in Table
9-4 respectively. Financing terms are determined based on the OECD arrangement and/or conditions
for each project, and detailed conditions such as interest rate and payment terms are considered by
financing institutions at the financing stage.
Table9-4 Financing Sources and Terms
Financing Source
Terms and Conditions
Financing form: Japanese ODA Loans (standard, tied)
Coverage: Equivalent to 85% of total project cost.
Japanese
Up to 30% of loan contract should be adopted
1
ODA Loans
procuring equipment and service in Japan
(STEP)
Interest rate: 0.20% (as of December 2011)
Payment terms: 40 years with grace period of 10 years
Financing form: Japanese ODA Loans (standard, untied)
Japanese
Coverage: By negotiation
2
ODA Loans
Interest rate: 1.40% (as of December 2011)
(general terms)
Financing form:
3
4
5
6
7
8
Japan Bank for International Cooperation
Untied Loan
JBIC
Interest rate: 1.075% (JPY)
(Untied Loans)
1.184% (USD, LIBOR+0.375%)
(as of December 2011)
Financing form: Buyer’s Credit (B/C)
Coverage: Up to 60% of goods and services exported
Interest rate & 1.19% (5 years)
Payment terms: 1.36% (5 to 8.5 years)
JBIC
1.57% (over 8.5 years)
(Export Loans)*1
(Interest rates mentioned above are applied in case
Payment terms: that payment terms are under 12 years. Fixed Yen
CIRR as of December 2011.)
Maximum 14 years
Financing form: Asian Development Bank (ADB),
Islamic Development Bank (IDB) etc.
International
Financial
Interest rate: 2.85% (6 month LIBOR + fixed swap)
Institutions
(reference value of ADB, as of December 2011)
Payment terms: By negotiation
Financing form: Commercial banks in Indonesia
Domestic Loans
Interest rate: 6.00% (policy rate as of December 2011)
Payment terms: By negotiation
Source: Foreign/Domestic investment group
Equity Participation
Coverage: Generally 20% of project cost
Source: The central government of Indonesia
Government Funds
*1: Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits, OECD
Source: Study Team
9-10
9.3 Cashflow Analyses
9.3.1 Preliminary Financial Analysis for PPP Schemes
(1) Methodology
The objective of the preliminary financial analysis for PPP schemes shown in Table 9-5 is to
evaluate the financial adequacy and management soundness by the operation body. Financial
Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) on Equity (Equity FIRR) from the viewpoint of SPC is estimated as
evaluation index according to the schemes implementing the project with private sector.
Scheme
Scheme-A: Affermage
Table 9-5 Schemes and Evaluation Viewpoint
Outline
Evaluation Philosophy
Public: construction of civil works and
procurement of E&M/ rolling stock
Private: O&M by SPC
Scheme-B: Concession
with minimum private
share of investment cost
Public: construction of civil works and
part of procurement of E&M/rolling stock
Private: part of procurement of
E&M/rolling stock
and O&M by SPC
From the viewpoint of
SPC, Equity FIRR of
private share is
estimated, for
implementing the project
with private sector.
Public: construction of civil works
Scheme-C: Concession
Private: procurement of E&M/rolling stock
and O&M by SPC
Source: Study Team
(2) Premises
The preliminary financial analysis is carried out based on the following premises.
 Assuming the 20 years O&M contract, the period of analysis is set for 25 years including
the preparation (before PPP contract) from 2014, and 20 years of operation from 2019 to
2038.
 Financial Cost: All figures are based on constant prices in 2011. The cost for domestic
products is the market price including various taxes, and for imported products is the CIF
price with import duty, inland transportation cost and other fees. Although import duty is
not considered in the analysis assumed that preferential treatment tariff will be adopted to
imported products.
 Inflation: Inflation is taken into consideration to local currency portion of investment cost
and personnel cost of O&M cost. From the central bank (Bank of Indonesia), the inflation
target of 2012 is 4.5% ±1%. In this analysis, the inflation rate of 4.5% until 2029, and half
of 4.5% after 2030 are adopted.
 Residual Value: The residual value in the last year of the analysis is counted as a negative
investment cost. The residual value is calculated based on the life cycle of the facilities.
 Passenger Fare: Same conditions as 5.2.2 (3) Assumption of Passenger Fare
(3) Evaluation Measure
For the Equity FIRR, government bonds (10 year) of 6.2% as Indonesian long-term interest rate is
adopted for benchmark. This Equity FIRR means target level for investor to judge the investment,
and will vary among individual investors. It is difficult to define at this stage, therefore equity FIRR
9-11
of after 10 and 20 years from initial investment are indicated in the study.
(4) Financial Analysis for PPP Schemes
1) Scheme-A: Affermage
Scheme-A is adopted affermage that construction of civil works and procurement of E&M/rolling
stock are conducted by the government. O&M is conducted by private sector that borrowing
facilities from the government and paying 10% of total revenue as usage fee under assumption of
100% ridership guarantee by the government. O&M contract is assumed 20 years.
a) Investment Cost by Private Sector
Investment cost consists of the implementation of feasibility study and EIA, documentation of
proposal, preparation of tender and composition of SPC at the preparation stage. Construction cost
of civil works and procurement of E&M/ rolling stock are not included in this scheme.
Table 9-6
Investment Cost of Private Sector (Scheme-A)
Year
2014
Preparation Cost
48.5
2015
2016
2017
2018
0.0
30.3
Source: Study Team
30.8
15.0
b) Revenue of SPC
Annual revenue consists of passenger fare revenue and non-fare revenue. The non-fare revenue is
assumed as 5% of fare revenue.
Year
Table 9-7 Annual Demand and Revenue (Scheme-A to C)
Annual Demand
Fare Revenue
Non-fare Revenue
Total Revenue
(thousand/y)
(ten million yen)
(ten million yen)
(ten million yen)
2019
17,150
155.9
7.8
163.7
2030
24,150
341.5
17.1
358.6
2048
30,800
603.5
Source: Study Team
30.2
633.7
c) Expenditure of SPC
O&M cost and usage fee are considered as expenditure in operation period.
Table 9-8 Annual Expenditure (Scheme-A to C)
Year
O&M cost
Usage Fee
Total Expenditure
2019
110.6
16.4
127.0
2030
120.1
35.9
156.0
2048
156.8
63.4
Source: Study Team
220.2
d) Financial Form of SPC
Financial form of SPC is assumed 30% of equity and remaining 70% would be debt. In this
analysis the interest rate of dept is assumed as 6.0% of domestic loans from commercial banks in
Indonesia with 10 years of repayment period.
9-12
e) Results of preliminary financial analysis
Results of financial analysis for scheme-A are shown in Table 9-9 and financial cash flow is
shown in Table 9-15. As a result, Equity FIRR of after 10 years from initial investment is 13.6%,
and considered favourable level.
Table 9-9
Results of Financial Analysis (Scheme-A)
Equity FIRR
(including residual value)
After 10 years from initial investment (2023)
13.6%
38.7%
Source: Study Team
2) Scheme-B: Concession with minimum private share of investment cost
Scheme-B is assumed that construction of civil works is conducted by the government, and
procurement of E&M/rolling stock is sharing with the public and private sector. O&M is
conducted by private sector that borrowing facilities from the government and paying 10% of total
revenue as usage fee under assumption of 100% ridership guarantee by the government. O&M
contract is assumed 20 years. In this scheme as a measure to reduce the private share at the
construction stage, the share of E&M/rolling stock is assumed 70% by the government and 30%
by the private sector. In total investment cost (including additional investment cost), this
assumption is equivalent to 90% by the government and 10% by the private sector.
Investment cost is composed of preparation cost mentioned in Scheme-A, and 30% of
E&M/rolling stock procurement cost. Life cycle of E&M/rolling stock is assumed 30 years and
the residual value in the last year of the analysis is counted as a negative investment cost.
Table 9-10
Year
Preparation Cost
E&M/Rolling stock
Investment Cost of Private Sector (Scheme-B)
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2024
2037
48.5
0.0
30.3
30.8
15.0
---
---
155.1
234.3
267.7
Source: Study Team
95.1
74.5
104.9
---
b) Revenue of SPC
Annual revenue consists of passenger fare revenue and non-fare revenue. (Same as Table 9-7.)
O&M cost and usage fee are considered as expenditure in operation period. (Same as Table 9-8.)
Same as Scheme-A, financial form is assumed 30% of equity and 70% of debt. The interest rate of
dept is assumed as 6.0% with 10 years of repayment period.
Results of financial analysis for Scheme-B are shown in Table 9-11 and financial cash flow is
shown in Table 9-16. As a result, Equity FIRR of after 10 years from initial investment is negative,
and of after 20 years from initial investment is still low.
9-13
Table 9-11
Results of Financial Analysis (Scheme-B)
Equity FIRR
negative
5.4%
Source: Study Team
3) Scheme-C: Concession
Scheme-C is assumed that construction of civil works is conducted by the government, and
procurement of E&M/rolling stock is conducted by private sector. O&M is conducted by private
sector that borrowing facilities from the government and paying 10% of total revenue as usage fee
under assumption of 100% ridership guarantee by the government. O&M contract is assumed 20
years.
Investment cost consists of preparation cost mentioned in Scheme-A, and E&M/rolling stock
procurement cost. Life cycle of E&M/rolling stock is assumed 30 years and the residual value in
the last year of the analysis is counted as a negative investment cost.
Table 9-12
Year
Preparation Cost
E&M/Rolling stock
Investment Cost of Private Sector (Scheme-C)
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2024
2037
48.5
0.0
30.3
30.8
15.0
---
---
517.0
781.1
892.4
Source: Study Team
317.0
248.4
349.8
---
b) Revenue of SPC
Annual revenue consists of passenger fare revenue and non-fare revenue. (Same as Table 9-7.)
O&M cost and usage fee are considered as expenditure in operation period. (Same as Table 9-8.)
Same as Scheme-A, financial form is assumed 30% of equity and 70% of debt. The interest rate of
dept is assumed as 6.0% with 10 years of repayment period.
Results of financial analysis for Scheme-C are shown in Table 9-13 and financial cash flow is
shown in Table 9-17. As a result, Equity FIRR of after 10 and 20 years from initial investment is
negative, and would not be feasible in the period of analysis.
Table 9-13
Results of Financial Analysis (Scheme-C)
Equity FIRR
negative
negative
Source: Study Team
9-14
(5) Summary of Preliminary Financial Analysis
Table 9-14 show the summary of preliminary financial analysis of each scheme.
Scheme
Table 9-14 Summary of Financial Analysis (Scheme-A to C)
A) Affermage (private B) Concession (with
C) Consession
sector conduct only O&M) minimum private share)
Outline
Public: construction of
civil works and
procurement of E&M/
rolling stock
Private: O&M by SPC
civil works and
E&M/rolling stock
Private: part of
procurement of
E&M/rolling stock
and O&M by SPC
civil works
Private: procurement of
E&M/rolling stock
and O&M by SPC
Share of Civil Construction Public 100%
Private
0%
Share of E&M/
Public 100%
Rolling Stock Procurement Private
0%
O&M
Asset of SPC
none
Financial Form of SPC
Revenue of SPC
Expenditure of SPC
Target of Equity FIRR
Equity FIRR (2023)
Equity FIRR (2033)
Public 100%
Public 100%
Private
0%
Private
0%
Public 70%
Public
0%
Private 30%
Private 100%
by SPC
Part of E&M/Rolling E&M/Rolling stock
stock
Equity: 30%, Debt: 70%
Fare and non-fare revenue
O&M cost and usage fee (10% of total revenue)
6.2% of Indonesian long-term interest rate (10 years government bonds)
13.6%
negative
negative
38.7%
5.4%
negative
Source: Study Team
In the schemes of “PPP with Government Support”, proposed system will manage efficiently by
private sector with previous experiences. In Scheme-A: Affermage, private sector will participate
only O&M field. From the result of analysis, this scheme evaluated appropriate approach for the
private sector that satisfies the target level of equity FIRR and possible to pay usage fee for the
government. Although for public sector, it is the task to fund raise long-term and low-interest
financing such as Japanese ODA loan.
Scheme-B: Concession (with minimum private share) assumed that government support 70% of
E&M/rolling stock procurement, equivalent to 90% of total construction cost. The equity FIRR
after 20 years from initial investment is still low level. Same to Scheme-C, it would not be
feasible in the period of analysis and is considered difficult to implement.
Those results are gained from financial analysis of preliminary study. Variation factors (such as
demand forecast and cost estimation) and assumptions (such as ration of equity/dept of SPC
and financing terms of dept) are included. Also target level of Equity FIRR is assumption for
this study.
9-15
Table 9-15
Financial Cashflow of Scheme-A
Year
Annual
2014
-5
2015
-4
2016
-3
2017
-2
2018
-1
Profit & Loss Statement
Revenue
Expense
Depreciation
Interest
Profits before tax
Corporate tax
Profits after tax
Benefits
Amount of benefit
Balance Sheet
<Assets>
Cash
Fixed assets
(Cumulative acuisition costs)
(Cumulative depreciation)
Deferred assets
(Cumulative payement)
(Cumulative depreciation of deferred assets)
Assets total
<Debt・Capital>
Balance
Capital
Cumulative profit surplus
Amount of debt+capex
2019
1
2020
2
2021
3
2022
4
2023
5
2024
6
2025
7
2026
8
2027
9
2028
10
2029
11
2030
12
2031
13
2032
14
2033
15
2034
16
2035
17
2036
18
2037
19
2038
20
163.7
127.0
27.4
5.8
3.5
0.0
3.5
3.5
3.5
165.1
127.9
27.4
5.2
4.7
0.0
4.7
4.7
8.2
166.6
128.8
27.4
4.6
5.8
0.0
5.8
5.8
13.9
168.1
129.8
27.4
4.0
6.8
0.0
6.8
6.8
20.8
169.6
130.9
27.4
3.5
7.9
0.0
7.9
7.9
28.6
212.9
136.1
0.0
2.9
74.0
0.0
74.0
74.0
102.6
223.8
138.9
0.0
2.3
82.6
0.0
82.6
82.6
185.2
235.2
140.8
0.0
1.7
92.7
0.0
92.7
92.7
277.9
247.1
142.7
0.0
1.2
103.3
0.0
103.3
103.3
381.1
259.7
144.8
0.0
0.6
114.4
0.0
114.4
114.4
495.5
341.2
153.8
0.0
0.0
187.4
0.0
187.4
187.4
682.9
358.6
155.9
0.0
0.0
202.6
0.0
202.6
202.6
885.5
361.3
156.7
0.0
0.0
204.6
0.0
204.6
204.6
1,090.2
364.1
157.4
0.0
0.0
206.7
0.0
206.7
206.7
1,296.9
366.9
158.2
0.0
0.0
208.7
0.0
208.7
208.7
1,505.6
412.0
163.2
0.0
0.0
248.8
0.0
248.8
248.8
1,754.4
415.1
164.0
0.0
0.0
251.2
0.0
251.2
251.2
2,005.6
418.3
164.8
0.0
0.0
253.6
0.0
253.6
253.6
2,259.1
421.6
165.6
0.0
0.0
255.9
0.0
255.9
255.9
2,515.1
428.9
192.4
0.0
0.0
236.5
0.0
236.5
236.5
2,751.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
48.5
48.5
0.0
48.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
50.5
50.5
0.0
50.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
82.9
82.9
0.0
82.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
117.2
117.2
0.0
117.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
137.1
137.1
0.0
137.1
21.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
109.7
137.1
27.4
131.0
43.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
82.3
137.1
54.8
126.1
67.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
54.8
137.1
82.3
122.3
92.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
27.4
137.1
109.7
119.5
117.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
137.1
137.1
117.7
182.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
137.1
137.1
182.1
255.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
137.1
137.1
255.1
338.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
137.1
137.1
338.2
431.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
137.1
137.1
431.9
536.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
137.1
137.1
536.6
724.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
137.1
137.1
724.1
926.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
137.1
137.1
926.7
1,131.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
137.1
137.1
1,131.3
1,338.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
137.1
137.1
1,338.0
1,546.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
137.1
137.1
1,546.7
1,795.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
137.1
137.1
1,795.5
2,046.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
137.1
137.1
2,046.7
2,300.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
137.1
137.1
2,300.3
2,556.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
137.1
137.1
2,556.2
2,792.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
137.1
137.1
2,792.7
33.9
14.5
0.0
48.5
35.4
15.2
0.0
50.5
58.1
24.9
0.0
82.9
82.1
35.2
0.0
117.2
96.0
41.1
0.0
137.1
86.4
41.1
3.5
131.0
76.8
41.1
8.2
126.1
67.2
41.1
13.9
122.3
57.6
41.1
20.8
119.5
48.0
41.1
28.6
117.7
38.4
41.1
102.6
182.1
28.8
41.1
185.2
255.1
19.2
41.1
277.9
338.2
9.6
41.1
381.1
431.9
0.0
41.1
495.5
536.6
0.0
41.1
682.9
724.1
0.0
41.1
885.5
926.7
0.0
41.1
1,090.2
1,131.3
0.0
41.1
1,296.9
1,338.0
0.0
41.1
1,505.6
1,546.7
0.0
41.1
1,754.4
1,795.5
0.0
41.1
2,005.6
2,046.7
0.0
41.1
2,259.1
2,300.3
0.0
41.1
2,515.1
2,556.2
0.0
41.1
2,751.6
2,792.7
Cash Flow
Profits after tax
Depreciation
Interest
Investment cost
Rise for operation cost
PROJECT Cashflow
PROJECT IRR
0.0
0.0
0.0
-48.5
0.0
-48.5
#NUM!
0.0
0.0
2.0
-2.0
0.0
0.0
#NUM!
0.0
0.0
2.1
-32.4
0.0
-30.3
#NUM!
0.0
0.0
3.5
-34.3
0.0
-30.8
#NUM!
0.0
0.0
4.9
-19.9
0.0
-15.0
#NUM!
3.5
27.4
5.8
0.0
0.0
36.7
#NUM!
4.7
27.4
5.2
0.0
0.0
37.3
-13.3%
5.8
27.4
4.6
0.0
0.0
37.8
-2.5%
6.8
27.4
4.0
0.0
0.0
38.3
3.9%
7.9
27.4
3.5
0.0
0.0
38.7
8.1%
74.0
0.0
2.9
0.0
0.0
76.8
13.2%
82.6
0.0
2.3
0.0
0.0
84.9
16.5%
92.7
0.0
1.7
0.0
0.0
94.4
18.9%
103.3
0.0
1.2
0.0
0.0
104.4
20.6%
114.4
0.0
0.6
0.0
0.0
114.9
21.9%
187.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
187.4
23.4%
202.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
202.6
24.5%
204.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
204.6
25.2%
206.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
206.7
25.7%
208.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
208.7
26.1%
248.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
248.8
26.5%
251.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
251.2
26.8%
253.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
253.6
27.0%
255.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
255.9
27.1%
236.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
236.5
27.2%
Interest
Debt-repay
Balance
EQUITY Cashflow
EQUITY IRR
0.0
33.9
33.9
-14.5
#NUM!
-2.0
1.4
35.4
-0.6
#NUM!
-2.1
22.7
58.1
-9.7
#NUM!
-3.5
24.0
82.1
-10.3
#NUM!
-4.9
13.9
96.0
-6.0
#NUM!
-5.8
-9.6
86.4
21.4
#NUM!
-5.2
-9.6
76.8
22.5
1.7%
-4.6
-9.6
67.2
23.6
12.2%
-4.0
-9.6
57.6
24.6
18.2%
-3.5
-9.6
48.0
25.7
22.0%
-2.9
-9.6
38.4
64.4
27.3%
-2.3
-9.6
28.8
73.0
30.6%
-1.7
-9.6
19.2
83.1
32.8%
-1.2
-9.6
9.6
93.7
34.3%
-0.6
-9.6
0.0
104.8
35.4%
0.0
0.0
0.0
187.4
36.7%
0.0
0.0
0.0
202.6
37.5%
0.0
0.0
0.0
204.6
38.1%
0.0
0.0
0.0
206.7
38.5%
0.0
0.0
0.0
208.7
38.7%
0.0
0.0
0.0
248.8
39.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
251.2
39.1%
0.0
0.0
0.0
253.6
39.2%
0.0
0.0
0.0
255.9
39.3%
0.0
0.0
0.0
236.5
39.4%
Project FIRR
After 10 years from commercial operation
(2028)
(2038)
21.9 %
27.2 %
Source: Study Team
9-16
Equity FIRR
After 10 years from initial investment
(2023)
(2033)
13.6 %
38.7 %
Table 9-16
Financial Cashflow of Scheme-B
Year
Annual
2014
-5
2015
-4
2016
-3
2017
-2
2018
-1
Revenue
Expense
Depreciation
Interest
Profits before tax
Corporate tax
Profits after tax
Benefits
Amount of benefit
Balance Sheet
<Assets>
Cash
Fixed assets
Deferred assets
Assets total
<Debt・Capital>
Balance
Capital
2019
1
2020
2
2021
3
2022
4
2023
5
2024
6
2025
7
2026
8
2027
9
2028
10
2029
11
2030
12
2031
13
2032
14
2033
15
2034
16
2035
17
2036
18
2037
19
2038
20
163.7
127.0
783.5
39.5
-786.4
0.0
-786.4
-786.4
-786.4
165.1
127.9
38.0
35.6
-36.3
0.0
-36.3
-36.3
-822.7
166.6
128.8
38.0
31.6
-31.8
0.0
-31.8
-31.8
-854.5
168.1
129.8
38.0
27.7
-27.4
0.0
-27.4
-27.4
-881.9
169.6
130.9
38.0
23.7
-23.0
0.0
-23.0
-23.0
-904.9
212.9
136.1
0.2
19.8
56.9
0.0
56.9
56.9
-848.0
223.8
138.9
0.2
15.8
68.9
0.0
68.9
68.9
-779.1
235.2
140.8
0.2
11.9
82.4
0.0
82.4
82.4
-696.7
247.1
142.7
0.2
7.9
96.3
0.0
96.3
96.3
-600.4
259.7
144.8
0.2
4.0
110.8
0.0
110.8
110.8
-489.6
341.2
153.8
0.2
0.0
187.2
0.0
187.2
187.2
-302.3
358.6
155.9
0.2
0.0
202.4
0.0
202.4
202.4
-99.9
361.3
156.7
0.2
0.0
204.5
0.0
204.5
204.5
104.6
364.1
157.4
0.1
0.0
206.5
0.0
206.5
206.5
311.2
366.9
158.2
0.1
0.0
208.6
0.0
208.6
208.6
519.8
412.0
163.2
0.1
0.0
248.7
0.0
248.7
248.7
768.5
415.1
164.0
0.1
0.0
251.0
0.0
251.0
251.0
1,019.5
418.3
164.8
0.1
0.0
253.4
0.0
253.4
253.4
1,272.9
421.6
165.6
0.1
0.0
255.8
0.0
255.8
255.8
1,528.7
428.9
192.4
0.1
0.0
236.4
0.0
236.4
236.4
1,765.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
48.5
48.5
0.0
48.5
0.0
155.1
155.1
0.0
50.5
50.5
0.0
205.6
0.0
389.4
389.4
0.0
89.5
89.5
0.0
478.9
0.0
657.2
657.2
0.0
140.4
140.4
0.0
797.5
0.0
752.3
752.3
0.0
188.8
188.8
0.0
941.1
-68.7
6.5
752.3
745.8
151.1
188.8
37.8
88.9
-132.9
6.2
752.3
746.0
113.3
188.8
75.5
-13.4
-192.6
6.0
752.3
746.3
75.5
188.8
113.3
-111.1
-247.9
5.8
752.3
746.5
37.8
188.8
151.1
-204.3
-298.7
5.6
752.3
746.7
0.0
188.8
188.8
-293.2
-307.5
5.4
752.3
746.9
0.0
188.8
188.8
-302.2
-304.3
5.2
752.3
747.1
0.0
188.8
188.8
-299.1
-287.6
5.0
752.3
747.3
0.0
188.8
188.8
-282.6
-257.0
4.8
752.3
747.5
0.0
188.8
188.8
-252.2
-211.9
4.6
752.3
747.6
0.0
188.8
188.8
-207.2
-24.5
4.5
752.3
747.8
0.0
188.8
188.8
-20.0
178.1
4.3
752.3
747.9
0.0
188.8
188.8
182.5
382.8
4.2
752.3
748.1
0.0
188.8
188.8
387.0
589.5
4.0
752.3
748.2
0.0
188.8
188.8
593.5
798.2
3.9
752.3
748.4
0.0
188.8
188.8
802.1
1,047.0
3.8
752.3
748.5
0.0
188.8
188.8
1,050.8
1,298.2
3.6
752.3
748.6
0.0
188.8
188.8
1,301.8
1,551.8
3.5
752.3
748.8
0.0
188.8
188.8
1,555.3
1,807.7
3.4
752.3
748.9
0.0
188.8
188.8
1,811.1
2,044.2
3.3
752.3
749.0
0.0
188.8
188.8
2,047.4
33.9
14.5
0.0
48.5
143.9
61.7
0.0
205.6
335.2
143.7
0.0
478.9
558.3
239.3
0.0
797.5
658.8
282.3
0.0
941.1
592.9
282.3
-786.4
88.9
527.0
282.3
-822.7
-13.4
461.1
282.3
-854.5
-111.1
395.3
282.3
-881.9
-204.3
329.4
282.3
-904.9
-293.2
263.5
282.3
-848.0
-302.2
197.6
282.3
-779.1
-299.1
131.8
282.3
-696.7
-282.6
65.9
282.3
-600.4
-252.2
0.0
282.3
-489.6
-207.2
0.0
282.3
-302.3
-20.0
0.0
282.3
-99.9
182.5
0.0
282.3
104.6
387.0
0.0
282.3
311.2
593.5
0.0
282.3
519.8
802.1
0.0
282.3
768.5
1,050.8
0.0
282.3
1,019.5
1,301.8
0.0
282.3
1,272.9
1,555.3
0.0
282.3
1,528.7
1,811.1
0.0
282.3
1,765.1
2,047.4
Cash Flow
Profits after tax
Depreciation
Interest
Investment cost
PROJECT Cashflow
PROJECT IRR
0.0
0.0
0.0
-48.5
0.0
-48.5
#NUM!
0.0
0.0
2.0
-157.1
0.0
-155.1
#NUM!
0.0
0.0
8.6
-273.3
0.0
-264.6
#NUM!
0.0
0.0
20.1
-318.6
0.0
-298.5
#NUM!
0.0
0.0
33.5
-143.6
0.0
-110.1
#NUM!
-786.4
783.5
39.5
0.0
0.0
36.7
#NUM!
-36.3
38.0
35.6
0.0
0.0
37.3
#NUM!
-31.8
38.0
31.6
0.0
0.0
37.8
#NUM!
-27.4
38.0
27.7
0.0
0.0
38.3
#DIV/0!
-23.0
38.0
23.7
0.0
0.0
38.7
#NUM!
56.9
0.2
19.8
0.0
0.0
76.8
#DIV/0!
68.9
0.2
15.8
0.0
0.0
84.9
-13.1%
82.4
0.2
11.9
0.0
0.0
94.4
-9.0%
96.3
0.2
7.9
0.0
0.0
104.4
-5.8%
110.8
0.2
4.0
0.0
0.0
114.9
-3.2%
187.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
187.4
-0.3%
202.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
202.6
1.8%
204.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
204.6
3.4%
206.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
206.7
4.6%
208.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
208.7
5.6%
248.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
248.8
6.5%
251.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
251.2
7.2%
253.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
253.6
7.8%
255.8
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
255.9
8.3%
236.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
236.5
8.7%
Interest
Debt-repay
Balance
EQUITY Cashflow
EQUITY IRR
0.0
33.9
33.9
-14.5
#NUM!
-2.0
110.0
143.9
-47.1
#NUM!
-8.6
191.3
335.2
-82.0
#NUM!
-20.1
223.1
558.3
-95.6
#NUM!
-33.5
100.5
658.8
-43.1
#NUM!
-39.5
-65.9
592.9
-68.7
#NUM!
-35.6
-65.9
527.0
-64.2
#NUM!
-31.6
-65.9
461.1
-59.7
#NUM!
-27.7
-65.9
395.3
-55.3
#NUM!
-23.7
-65.9
329.4
-50.9
#NUM!
-19.8
-65.9
263.5
-8.8
#DIV/0!
-15.8
-65.9
197.6
3.2
#DIV/0!
-11.9
-65.9
131.8
16.7
#DIV/0!
-7.9
-65.9
65.9
30.6
#DIV/0!
-4.0
-65.9
0.0
45.1
#DIV/0!
0.0
0.0
0.0
187.4
#DIV/0!
0.0
0.0
0.0
202.6
-1.9%
0.0
0.0
0.0
204.6
1.5%
0.0
0.0
0.0
206.7
3.7%
0.0
0.0
0.0
208.7
5.3%
0.0
0.0
0.0
248.8
6.8%
0.0
0.0
0.0
251.2
7.9%
0.0
0.0
0.0
253.6
8.7%
0.0
0.0
0.0
255.9
9.4%
0.0
0.0
0.0
236.5
9.9%
Project FIRR
(2028)
(2038)
-3.1 %
8.7 %
Source: Study Team
9-17
Equity FIRR
(2023)
(2033)
negative
5.4 %
Table 9-17
Financial Cashflow of Scheme-C
Year
Annual
2014
-5
2015
-4
2016
-3
2017
-2
2018
-1
Revenue
Expense
Depreciation
Interest
Profits before tax
Corporate tax
Profits after tax
Benefits
Amount of benefit
Balance Sheet
<Assets>
Cash
Fixed assets
Deferred assets
Assets total
<Debt・Capital>
Balance
Capital
2019
1
2020
2
2021
3
2022
4
2023
5
2024
6
2025
7
2026
8
2027
9
2028
10
2029
11
2030
12
2031
13
2032
14
2033
15
2034
16
2035
17
2036
18
2037
19
2038
20
163.7
127.0
2,563.0
118.3
-2,644.6
0.0
-2,644.6
-2,644.6
-2,644.6
165.1
127.9
62.1
106.5
-131.4
0.0
-131.4
-131.4
-2,776.0
166.6
128.8
62.1
94.7
-119.0
0.0
-119.0
-119.0
-2,895.0
168.1
129.8
62.1
82.8
-106.7
0.0
-106.7
-106.7
-3,001.6
169.6
130.9
62.1
71.0
-94.4
0.0
-94.4
-94.4
-3,096.0
212.9
136.1
0.2
59.2
17.5
0.0
17.5
17.5
-3,078.5
223.8
138.9
0.2
47.3
37.4
0.0
37.4
37.4
-3,041.1
235.2
140.8
0.2
35.5
58.7
0.0
58.7
58.7
-2,982.4
247.1
142.7
0.2
23.7
80.6
0.0
80.6
80.6
-2,901.8
259.7
144.8
0.2
11.8
102.9
0.0
102.9
102.9
-2,798.9
341.2
153.8
0.2
0.0
187.2
0.0
187.2
187.2
-2,611.6
358.6
155.9
0.2
0.0
202.4
0.0
202.4
202.4
-2,409.2
361.3
156.7
0.2
0.0
204.5
0.0
204.5
204.5
-2,204.7
364.1
157.4
0.1
0.0
206.5
0.0
206.5
206.5
-1,998.1
366.9
158.2
0.1
0.0
208.6
0.0
208.6
208.6
-1,789.5
412.0
163.2
0.1
0.0
248.7
0.0
248.7
248.7
-1,540.9
415.1
164.0
0.1
0.0
251.0
0.0
251.0
251.0
-1,289.8
418.3
164.8
0.1
0.0
253.4
0.0
253.4
253.4
-1,036.4
421.6
165.6
0.1
0.0
255.8
0.0
255.8
255.8
-780.6
428.9
192.4
0.1
0.0
236.4
0.0
236.4
236.4
-544.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
48.5
48.5
0.0
48.5
0.0
517.0
517.0
0.0
50.5
50.5
0.0
567.6
0.0
1,298.1
1,298.1
0.0
104.7
104.7
0.0
1,402.8
0.0
2,190.5
2,190.5
0.0
194.4
194.4
0.0
2,384.9
0.0
2,507.6
2,507.6
0.0
309.5
309.5
0.0
2,817.1
-278.8
6.5
2,507.6
2,501.1
247.6
309.5
61.9
-24.7
-545.2
6.2
2,507.6
2,501.3
185.7
309.5
123.8
-353.3
-799.3
6.0
2,507.6
2,501.6
123.8
309.5
185.7
-669.5
-1,041.0
5.8
2,507.6
2,501.8
61.9
309.5
247.6
-973.4
-1,270.5
5.6
2,507.6
2,502.0
0.0
309.5
309.5
-1,264.9
-1,450.0
5.4
2,507.6
2,502.2
0.0
309.5
309.5
-1,444.6
-1,609.6
5.2
2,507.6
2,502.4
0.0
309.5
309.5
-1,604.4
-1,747.9
5.0
2,507.6
2,502.6
0.0
309.5
309.5
-1,742.9
-1,864.3
4.8
2,507.6
2,502.8
0.0
309.5
309.5
-1,859.5
-1,958.4
4.6
2,507.6
2,502.9
0.0
309.5
309.5
-1,953.8
-1,771.0
4.5
2,507.6
2,503.1
0.0
309.5
309.5
-1,766.5
-1,568.4
4.3
2,507.6
2,503.2
0.0
309.5
309.5
-1,564.1
-1,363.7
4.2
2,507.6
2,503.4
0.0
309.5
309.5
-1,359.6
-1,157.1
4.0
2,507.6
2,503.5
0.0
309.5
309.5
-1,153.0
-948.3
3.9
2,507.6
2,503.7
0.0
309.5
309.5
-944.4
-699.5
3.8
2,507.6
2,503.8
0.0
309.5
309.5
-695.7
-448.3
3.6
2,507.6
2,503.9
0.0
309.5
309.5
-444.7
-194.8
3.5
2,507.6
2,504.1
0.0
309.5
309.5
-191.3
61.2
3.4
2,507.6
2,504.2
0.0
309.5
309.5
64.5
297.7
3.3
2,507.6
2,504.3
0.0
309.5
309.5
300.9
33.9
14.5
0.0
48.5
397.3
170.3
0.0
567.6
981.9
420.8
0.0
1,402.8
1,669.4
715.5
0.0
2,384.9
1,971.9
845.1
0.0
2,817.1
1,774.7
845.1
-2,644.6
-24.7
1,577.6
845.1
-2,776.0
-353.3
1,380.4
845.1
-2,895.0
-669.5
1,183.2
845.1
-3,001.6
-973.4
986.0
845.1
-3,096.0
-1,264.9
788.8
845.1
-3,078.5
-1,444.6
591.6
845.1
-3,041.1
-1,604.4
394.4
845.1
-2,982.4
-1,742.9
197.2
845.1
-2,901.8
-1,859.5
0.0
845.1
-2,798.9
-1,953.8
0.0
845.1
-2,611.6
-1,766.5
0.0
845.1
-2,409.2
-1,564.1
0.0
845.1
-2,204.7
-1,359.6
0.0
845.1
-1,998.1
-1,153.0
0.0
845.1
-1,789.5
-944.4
0.0
845.1
-1,540.9
-695.7
0.0
845.1
-1,289.8
-444.7
0.0
845.1
-1,036.4
-191.3
0.0
845.1
-780.6
64.5
0.0
845.1
-544.2
300.9
Cash Flow
Profits after tax
Depreciation
Interest
Investment cost
PROJECT Cashflow
PROJECT IRR
0.0
0.0
0.0
-48.5
0.0
-48.5
#NUM!
0.0
0.0
2.0
-519.1
0.0
-517.0
#NUM!
0.0
0.0
23.8
-835.2
0.0
-811.4
#NUM!
0.0
0.0
58.9
-982.1
0.0
-923.2
#NUM!
0.0
0.0
100.2
-432.1
0.0
-332.0
#NUM!
-2,644.6
2,563.0
118.3
0.0
0.0
36.7
#NUM!
-131.4
62.1
106.5
0.0
0.0
37.3
#NUM!
-119.0
62.1
94.7
0.0
0.0
37.8
#NUM!
-106.7
62.1
82.8
0.0
0.0
38.3
#NUM!
-94.4
62.1
71.0
0.0
0.0
38.7
#DIV/0!
17.5
0.2
59.2
0.0
0.0
76.8
#DIV/0!
37.4
0.2
47.3
0.0
0.0
84.9
#DIV/0!
58.7
0.2
35.5
0.0
0.0
94.4
#DIV/0!
80.6
0.2
23.7
0.0
0.0
104.4
#DIV/0!
102.9
0.2
11.8
0.0
0.0
114.9
#DIV/0!
187.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
187.4
#DIV/0!
202.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
202.6
-8.3%
204.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
204.6
-6.4%
206.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
206.7
-4.8%
208.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
208.7
-3.6%
248.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
248.8
-2.4%
251.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
251.2
-1.4%
253.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
253.6
-0.6%
255.8
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
255.9
0.1%
236.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
236.5
0.7%
Interest
Debt-repay
Balance
EQUITY Cashflow
EQUITY IRR
0.0
33.9
33.9
-14.5
#NUM!
-2.0
363.4
397.3
-155.7
#NUM!
-23.8
584.6
981.9
-250.6
#NUM!
-58.9
687.5
1,669.4
-294.6
#NUM!
-100.2
302.5
1,971.9
-129.6
#NUM!
-118.3
-197.2
1,774.7
-278.8
#NUM!
-106.5
-197.2
1,577.6
-266.4
#NUM!
-94.7
-197.2
1,380.4
-254.1
#NUM!
-82.8
-197.2
1,183.2
-241.7
#NUM!
-71.0
-197.2
986.0
-229.4
#DIV/0!
-59.2
-197.2
788.8
-179.5
#DIV/0!
-47.3
-197.2
591.6
-159.6
#DIV/0!
-35.5
-197.2
394.4
-138.3
#DIV/0!
-23.7
-197.2
197.2
-116.4
#DIV/0!
-11.8
-197.2
0.0
-94.1
#DIV/0!
0.0
0.0
0.0
187.4
#DIV/0!
0.0
0.0
0.0
202.6
#DIV/0!
0.0
0.0
0.0
204.6
#DIV/0!
0.0
0.0
0.0
206.7
#DIV/0!
0.0
0.0
0.0
208.7
#DIV/0!
0.0
0.0
0.0
248.8
#DIV/0!
0.0
0.0
0.0
251.2
#DIV/0!
0.0
0.0
0.0
253.6
#DIV/0!
0.0
0.0
0.0
255.9
#DIV/0!
0.0
0.0
0.0
236.5
-1.7%
Project FIRR
(2028)
(2038)
negative
0.7 %
Source: Study Team
9-18
Equity FIRR
(2023)
(2033)
negative
negative
Chapter 10
Action Plan and Issues
10.1 Approaches towards Realization of the Project
10.1.1
The Project Explanation and Cooperation Request to Concerned Organizations
When this project was explained to development developers of the region for this project including
the president of MM2100 industrial town, the president of Bekasi Fajar industrial estate (local
partner of MM2100 industrial town), and the president of the Jababeka industrial park, they have
recognized that necessity of a rail transit system to be introduced for dissolution of road traffic
congestion in the study areas, and accepted the cooperation for request of investigation.
Also, this project was explained to Governor of Bekasi regency and Regional body for planning and
development (BAPPEDA; Badan Perencana Pembangunan Daerah), and approval has been
obtained.
10.1.2
Study Group Considerations
Japan Transportation Planning Association of the cosponsor corporation of the study launched the
independent study group in 2011, and the examination of the overseas deployment of the packed
type infrastructure proposals for the APM system in cooperation with makers, trading companies,
and consultant members of the association is in progress. The APM system of Japan have achieved
many track records and are competitive overseas, therefore continued overseas expansion in the
future first requires finding opportunities, doing the feasibility study to supply infrastructure
improvement, vehicles, signaling, telecommunication, electric power, etc. Also important is
management and maintenance operation for future overseas expansion. This project aims at early
realization in the above-mentioned study group and it was determined to examine by the
"investigations, such as utilization-of-private-sector infrastructure proposal formation". Through the
study section meeting over the last year, examination is in progress towards implementation of
in-depth investigation now as preparation for advancing the study to the next stage (feasibility
study).
10-1
10.2 Approaches of Indonesian Government and Concerned
Organizations towards Realization of the Project
Since this project was explained to the counterpart organizations for the first time at the time of the
first field survey, there is no specific sign towards realization of the project at present. However, on
the whole, it is cooperative with this project, and the following description of related issues made
during meeting are shown below.
10.2.1
National Development Planning Agency (BAPPENAS)
Examination is in progress at the P3CU (Public Private Partnership Central Unit) for the purpose of
attaining simplification and increase in efficiency of the procedure of the PPP scheme now. It is
supposed to prepare how government guarantee and support (Viability Gap Fund etc.) should be, the
project coordination institution for PPP scheme creation, establishment of government guarantees
and various systems towards promotion of the scope of the PPP. In Indonesia, there are few
examples of successes in the PPP scheme, and if the above-mentioned measures will make progress,
it is considered that applicability will be possible in the business scheme of this project.
10.2.2
Directorate General of Railways, Ministry of Transportation
A possibility of becoming a governing legal authority of this project is high, and explanation that
cooperation support is offered about this project coordination from the vice-minister was made.
10.2.3
Bekasi Regency
Realization of this project is expected in Bekasi regency in the target area of this project and the
Bekasi regency shows interest to taking part in the planning as an operating body.
10-2
10.3 Existence of Legal / Financial Constraints of Indonesia
In implementation of this project, there are the following issues, mainly from viewpoint of an
improvement of the PPP related laws.

It is assumed to take two years or more for the PPP operator determination from public
announcement of proposal information and EOI (Expression of Interest), and speeding up of
procedures is required.
 As for the project which require land acquisition, although revision was made so that ministries
and autonomous bodies purchase land before competitive bid, the negotiation problem with
landowners, etc. have occurred in practice, and further legal revision is implemented.
 According to the plan, 65% of the revenue source of the infrastructure improvement of
US$ 1,430 million is financed with private capital in middle development planning from 2010 to
2014, and the government coffer has restrictions.
In Indonesia, the infrastructure improvement by PPP does not have a track record other than electric
power plants, and the Indonesia government and private sector side generally must be cautious about
the urban transport proposals of low profitability.
About the competency and the system of the PPP operation, since it is in a developing stage, it
cannot but become a proposal of a pilot implementation scheme in the urban railway sector.
However, it is considered to be significant to implement positioning the project as a pilot project in
Indonesia as evidenced that nine railroad proposals are listed as "Potential Project" in the PPP Book
2011-2014.
It is considered that constraints on the Indonesia government coffer and the presence of the
above-mentioned PPP operation track records are the same also in other Asian nations, and it is
compensated by practical use of public finance and effective business operation.
10-3
10.4 Necessity of Additional Detail Analysis
Each results of the study summarized in this report are a preliminary examination and an analysis
result and need to also consider changes of the situation of Indonesia and the area concerned
continuously and to carry out a detailed feasibility study taking into account the following
viewpoints.
 Examination of project implementation scheme: The study was verified from preliminary studies
of two or more typical implementation schemes also containing public works projects. It is
considered that furthermore, it is necessary to include re-evaluation of an implementation
scheme to clarify appropriate roles and risk assignment of the government and private sector in a
detailed analysis stage. Although it is also expected as a result of a re-evaluation that
government and private sector roles and financing method differ from the main study result, it
should be examined flexibly.
 Adjustment with future development planning: In the area concerned, development planning of
the industry and the commercial area by local developers play important roles together with the
city master plan of the government level. While it is considered in the demand forecast and route
location selection, it is important to collect substantial information about changes of a plan, or
its progress status in future as well.
 Adjustment with government agencies: As for tax exemption at the time of materials and
equipment procurement and adaptation of preferential treatment to operation bodies, it is
necessary to examine its possibilities through a hearing to the government agencies.
 A detailed demand forecast and cost addition: After carrying out more in-depth demand forecast,
and estimation of construction costs and operation and maintenance costs in detail, it is
necessary to conduct economic and financial analysis.
In addition, for detailed study in the next stage, application of detailed study scheme through the
technical assistance of Japanese government is effective and it is desirable to offer continuous
support by Japan to the realization of the project.
10-4

STUDY ON NEW URBAN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM PROJECT

Transcription

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