Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 |
Transcription
Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 |
R LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Research Report by Shared Research Inc. Shared Research Inc. has produced this report by request from the company discussed in the report. The aim is to provide an “owner’s manual” to investors. We at Shared Research Inc. make every effort to provide an accurate, objective, and neutral analysis. In order to highlight any biases, we clearly attribute our data and findings. We will always present opinions from company management as such. Our views are ours where stated. We do not try to convince or influence, only inform. We appreciate your suggestions and feedback. Write to us at sr_inquiries@sharedresearch.jp or find us on Bloomberg. R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 INDEX Executive Summary --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 Key financial data ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 Recent updates --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 Highlights ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 Trends and outlook --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 Quarterly trends and results----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 Company forecasts and outlook --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 Business, market and value chain ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 Business description ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 Business by product category ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 28 Strengths and weaknesses ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 41 Financial statements------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 42 Income statement ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 42 Balance sheet ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 46 Cash flow statement ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 48 Other information---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 49 Corporate governance ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 49 Top management----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 49 Dividend policy ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 49 Shareholder composition ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 49 Number of employees ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 50 About paints ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 50 Profile --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 51 www.sharedresearch.jp 02/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Executive Summary LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Executive Summary 2017 marks 100th year since founding; core competency in marine paints Chugoku Marine Paints (CMP) was founded in 1917 as an early domestic pioneer in anti-fouling paints. This coating is applied to ships to slow subaquatic growth, making for a smoother hull and thus increasing fuel efficiency. At the company’s founding, the majority of anti-fouling paints for both public and private use were sourced from overseas. A focus on research and prioritizing technology remains part of the company’s DNA. By leveraging its core marine paint technologies, CMP has grown in tandem with Japan’s shipping industry, while expanding into industrial and container paints. Leveraging technology, expanding market share by being an early mover in environmental solutions Even within marine paints, anti-fouling paints require the ability to develop technology. As environmental concerns grow, the company has led development of environmentally compliant anti-fouling paints, and strengthened its product lineup. This has increased its brand recognition. Coupled with strengthened sales activities, this resulted in the company expanding its domestic market share xx% in FY2005. (Note: FY refers to the Japanese fiscal year ending on March 31.) Maintaining a leading global market share in anti-fouling and container paints CMP holds almost 30% of the global market share in anti-fouling paints for new ships, and almost 20% of the ship repair market. It has made steady market share gains over the past two decades. In anti-fouling paint for new ships, it has increased its share in Japan to 60% (from over 40% prior to 2000), Korea to 20% (from 10%), and China to 30% (following the taking off of the Chinese shipbuilding industry). Over the same period, CMP’s share of container paints has grown to almost 30% (from about 20%) in China, which accounts for 95% of global container production. Medium-term target: 12.4% increase in sales and 34.4% increase in operating profit The company targets sales growth of 12.4% to JPY120bn (up JPY13.3bn from FY03/15) and operating profit growth of 34.4% to JPY10bn (up JPY2.6bn from FY03/15). Target sales mix for paints: 60% ships, 20% containers, and 20% industrial To achieve its medium-term targets, CMP aims to establish a leading market share in ship and container products; expand into offshore structures; cultivate new markets in the industrial paint sector; and improve profitability. Its sales mix of paint as of FY03/15 was 75% for ships, 13% for containers, and 12% for industrial. Still, it aims for 20% in both containers and industrial, which it considers key growth areas. Even without this sales mix, given FY03/16 forecasts (revised up on October 29, 2015), the company could achieve its medium-term sales targets. However, to grow sales beyond that, accelerated growth in container and industrial paints is necessary. Other important conditions include a recovery of container paint market and developing new markets in industrial paints. Strengths and weaknesses Strengths: Accumulated expertise from 100 years in core technologies、global network、and improving brand recognition. Weaknesses: Capturing repair demand in anti-fouling paints to stabilize earnings, lack of experience in businesses other than marine paints, and late start in offshore structures led to opportunity loss. www.sharedresearch.jp 03/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Key financial data LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Key financial data Income statement (JPYmn) Sales YoY Gross profit GPM SG&A expenses YoY SG&A / sales Operating profit YoY OPM Non-operating profit Financial income Gains on foreign exchange Other non-operating profit Recurring profit YoY RPM Extraordinary profit Income taxes Minority interests Net income YoY Net margin Total capex Depreciation Amortization of goodwill R&D expenses Per share data Shares outstanding (mn, year-end) Number of shares (mn, average) BPS (JPY) EPS (JPY) DPS (JPY) Balance sheet (JPYmn) Current assets Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventory assets Allowance for doubtful accounts Others Tangible fixed assets Intangible assets Investments and other assets Investment securities Allowance for doubtful accounts Others Total assets Current liabilities Accounts payable Short-term debt Provision for points Income taxes payable Other current liabilities Noncurrent liabilities Long-term debt Others Net assets Shareholders' equity Treasury shares Unrealized gains Minority interests Total capital and liabilities Cash flow statement (JPYmn) Operating cash flow Investment cash flow Financial cash flow Financial ratios Interest-bearing debt Net cash ROA ROE Equity ratio FY03/04 Cons. 55,767 11.1% 19,220 34.5% 14,743 4.9% 26.4% 4,477 20.9% 8.0% -183 -198 -163 177 4,294 23.4% 7.7% -1,046 13.6% -269 2,538 52.5% 4.6% 1,170 1,229 4 1,216 FY03/04 68.9 69.0 386 36.3 7.5 FY03/04 36,813 6,884 19,290 9,359 -491 1,772 23,454 216 7,950 6,801 -414 1,563 68,433 33,989 8,671 20,440 3,274 766 838 6,627 2,725 3,902 27,817 24,575 -41 2,068 1,174 68,433 FY03/04 2,905 -376 -1,094 FY03/04 23,165 -16,282 6.4% 10.0% 38.9% FY03/05 Cons. 63,389 13.7% 20,803 32.8% 16,081 9.1% 25.4% 4,721 5.5% 7.4% 5 -164 44 125 4,726 10.1% 7.5% 56 38.2% -252 2,704 6.5% 4.3% 1,004 1,265 -0 1,382 FY03/05 68.9 68.9 425 38.7 7.5 FY03/05 45,143 7,943 23,933 11,910 -485 1,842 23,205 255 8,565 7,279 -459 1,745 77,168 40,963 11,510 23,613 3,544 1,495 801 5,533 1,245 4,288 30,673 26,703 -63 2,623 1,347 77,168 FY03/05 852 -51 1,063 FY03/05 24,858 -16,915 6.5% 9.7% 38.0% FY03/06 Cons. 67,846 7.0% 19,932 29.4% 16,300 1.4% 24.0% 3,632 -23.1% 5.4% 68 -272 287 53 3,700 -21.7% 5.5% 644 34.4% -217 2,633 -2.6% 3.9% 2,050 1,226 -0 1,386 FY03/06 68.9 68.9 481 38.2 7.5 FY03/06 48,567 9,693 24,431 13,116 -505 1,832 24,541 225 10,382 8,981 -88 1,489 83,716 39,827 11,374 23,083 4,076 644 650 9,041 2,815 6,226 34,847 28,747 -81 4,394 1,706 83,716 FY03/06 2,653 -856 -454 FY03/06 25,898 -16,206 4.6% 8.4% 39.6% FY03/07 Cons. 88,196 30.0% 25,654 29.1% 18,397 12.9% 20.9% 7,257 99.8% 8.2% -127 -480 81 272 7,130 92.7% 8.1% -16 25.8% -426 4,853 84.3% 5.5% 2,671 1,228 -3 1,496 FY03/07 68.9 68.9 560 70.5 10.0 FY03/07 64,992 8,132 36,198 18,258 -630 3,034 26,038 427 10,600 9,101 -70 1,569 102,058 52,022 16,873 28,005 5,258 1,089 797 9,194 3,185 6,009 40,840 33,063 -101 5,511 2,265 102,058 FY03/07 -3,702 -2,954 4,368 FY03/07 31,190 -23,058 7.7% 13.5% 37.8% FY03/08 Cons. 104,798 18.8% 28,736 27.4% 20,604 12.0% 19.7% 8,132 12.1% 7.8% -690 -888 -162 360 7,442 4.4% 7.1% 593 29.0% -586 5,117 5.4% 4.9% 2,602 1,458 -3 1,605 FY03/08 68.8 68.8 564 74.4 13.0 FY03/08 63,567 7,975 36,538 17,719 -700 2,035 25,571 450 8,961 7,290 -41 1,712 98,550 49,722 15,866 26,515 5,174 1,479 688 7,723 2,555 5,168 41,105 37,020 -156 1,798 2,286 98,550 FY03/08 4,846 -2,621 -1,419 FY03/08 29,070 -21,095 7.4% 13.2% 39.4% FY03/09 Cons. 103,622 -1.1% 29,072 28.1% 20,642 0.2% 19.9% 8,429 3.7% 8.1% -530 -521 -431 422 7,899 6.1% 7.6% -153 25.8% -717 5,031 -1.7% 4.9% 3,044 1,555 22 1,800 FY03/09 68.8 68.8 550 73.1 13.0 FY03/09 60,629 8,625 34,891 16,002 -645 1,756 23,837 843 6,465 4,958 -5 1,512 91,776 44,351 13,193 25,088 4,369 785 916 7,410 3,001 4,409 40,013 40,433 -187 -2,581 2,161 91,776 FY03/09 4,074 -1,634 -711 FY03/09 28,089 -19,464 8.3% 13.1% 41.2% FY03/10 Cons. 86,810 -16.2% 29,976 34.5% 19,981 -3.2% 23.0% 9,995 18.6% 11.5% 272 -173 -30 475 10,268 30.0% 11.8% -129 37.6% -901 5,422 7.8% 6.2% 2,062 1,605 21 1,939 FY03/10 68.7 68.8 633 78.9 13.0 FY03/10 64,068 14,767 35,302 12,829 -952 2,122 24,394 841 7,042 5,823 -50 1,269 96,346 44,124 12,976 22,478 4,948 2,893 829 5,683 1,182 4,501 46,538 44,954 -194 -1,466 3,049 96,346 FY03/10 14,290 -2,805 -5,790 FY03/10 23,660 -8,893 10.9% 13.3% 45.1% FY03/11 Cons. 96,595 11.3% 28,844 29.9% 20,020 0.2% 20.7% 8,823 -11.7% 9.1% 291 -29 -68 388 9,114 -11.2% 9.4% -87 30.0% -619 5,701 5.1% 5.9% 1,505 1,680 21 1,908 FY03/11 68.7 68.7 665 82.9 13.0 FY03/11 70,070 12,412 41,758 14,156 -789 2,533 23,484 878 5,872 4,708 -46 1,210 100,305 45,145 17,368 20,676 5,031 1,225 845 6,285 1,920 4,365 48,874 49,756 -201 -4,011 3,129 100,305 FY03/11 1,252 -1,768 -1,671 FY03/11 22,596 -10,184 9.3% 12.8% 45.6% FY03/12 Cons. 93,560 -3.1% 24,855 26.6% 19,381 -3.2% 20.7% 5,474 -38.0% 5.9% 567 -129 343 353 6,040 -33.7% 6.5% -11 42.5% -396 3,067 -46.2% 3.3% 1,188 1,535 24 1,902 FY03/12 68.7 68.7 688 44.6 13.0 FY03/12 70,233 17,615 37,694 13,751 -830 2,003 23,026 728 5,862 4,709 -42 1,195 99,850 42,423 12,535 23,508 4,808 847 725 7,012 2,847 4,165 50,414 51,927 -204 -4,619 3,106 99,850 FY03/12 3,676 -2,154 3,094 FY03/12 26,355 -8,740 6.0% 6.6% 47.4% FY03/13 Cons. 83,656 -10.6% 22,079 26.4% 17,363 -10.4% 20.8% 4,715 -13.9% 5.6% 404 -21 94 331 5,119 -15.2% 6.1% -57 33.1% -410 2,978 -2.9% 3.6% 1,382 1,426 24 1,789 FY03/13 66.2 67.4 798 44.2 13.0 FY03/13 74,315 22,011 36,944 14,360 -905 1,905 23,782 887 7,255 6,382 -45 918 106,240 41,879 13,370 21,998 4,893 816 802 7,661 3,314 4,347 56,699 53,097 -1,179 -277 3,878 106,240 FY03/13 8,719 -3,624 -4,455 FY03/13 25,312 -3,301 5.0% 5.9% 49.7% FY03/14 Cons. 90,901 8.7% 25,227 27.8% 21,168 21.9% 23.3% 4,058 -13.9% 4.5% 1,001 53 504 444 5,058 -1.2% 5.6% 832 34.8% -571 3,269 9.8% 3.6% 1,340 1,562 27 1,714 FY03/14 66.2 66.2 944 49.4 13.0 FY03/14 83,118 28,367 38,677 15,129 -2,701 3,646 25,610 1,296 8,994 8,133 -54 915 119,019 43,178 14,664 20,910 5,415 1,435 754 8,508 3,373 5,135 67,332 55,501 -1,183 6,985 4,844 119,019 FY03/14 10,084 -2,364 -4,420 FY03/14 24,283 4,084 4.5% 5.7% 52.5% FY03/15 FY03/16 Cons. Est. 106,737 115,000 17.4% 7.7% 29,424 27.6% 21,982 3.8% 20.6% 7,442 9,000 83.4% 20.9% 7.0% 7.8% 916 800 201 262 453 8,359 9,800 65.3% 17.2% 7.8% 8.5% -460 29.7% -808 4,748 6,000 45.2% 26.4% 4.4% 5.2% 1,163 1,671 30 1,849 FY03/15 66.2 66.2 1,095 71.7 90.6 15.0 15.0 FY03/15 95,726 30,682 47,119 17,626 -2,130 2,429 25,915 1,501 11,944 10,826 -926 2,044 135,087 50,201 19,420 21,670 6,641 1,438 1,032 6,660 1,086 5,574 78,225 59,296 -1,192 13,184 5,745 135,087 FY03/15 4,355 -597 -3,900 FY03/15 22,756 7,926 6.6% 7.0% 53.7% Source: Shared Research based on company data www.sharedresearch.jp 04/52 R Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Chugoku Marine Paints > Recent updates LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Recent updates Highlights Shares Research initiates coverage of Chugoku Marine Paints, Ltd. (CMP) with this report. www.sharedresearch.jp 05/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Trends and outlook LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Trends and outlook Quarterly trends and results Income statement (JPYmn) Sales YoY Gross profit GPM SG&A expenses YoY SG&A / sales Operating profit YoY OPM Q1 20,231 3.1% 5,456 27.0% 4,630 1.8% 22.9% 825 3.6% 4.1% O P befor e dep. & amor tization of good 1,189 YoY 4.5% OPM 5.9% Non-operating profit 359 Financial income 82 Gains on foreign exchange 161 Other non-operating profit 116 Recurring profit 1,183 YoY 21.0% RPM 5.8% Extraordinary profit Income taxes -455 Implied tax rate 38.5% Minority interests -98 Net income 628 YoY 21.9% Net margin 3.1% Performance by segment (JPYmn) Sales Japan China Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US Marine paints Industrial paints Container paints Other YoY Japan China Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US Marine paints Industrial paints Container paints Operating profit Japan China Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US Elimination OPM Japan China Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US FY03/14 Q2 Q3 23,733 22,680 1.0% 9.6% 6,402 6,363 27.0% 28.1% 5,653 5,239 32.3% 23.8% 23.8% 23.1% 750 1,124 -62.0% -10.4% 3.2% 5.0% 1,150 1,520 -50.6% -6.5% 4.8% 6.7% 215 281 -43 11 158 125 100 145 966 1,405 -47.7% -2.8% 4.1% 6.2% 178 402 -450 -526 39.3% 29.1% -182 -151 512 1,132 -52.7% 11.2% 2.2% 5.0% Q4 24,257 22.3% 7,006 28.9% 5,646 31.0% 23.3% 1,359 97.0% 5.6% 1,788 66.8% 7.4% 146 3 60 83 1,504 76.9% 6.2% 252 -619 35.3% -140 997 175.4% 4.1% Q1 22,932 13.4% 6,277 27.4% 5,000 8.0% 21.8% 1,277 54.8% 5.6% 1,678 41.1% 7.3% 155 135 -91 111 1,431 21.0% 6.2% -322 22.5% -159 949 51.1% 4.1% FY03/15 Q2 Q3 27,531 27,792 16.0% 22.5% 7,759 7,495 28.2% 27.0% 5,733 5,347 1.4% 2.1% 20.8% 19.2% 2,026 2,147 170.1% 91.0% 7.4% 7.7% 2,439 2,581 112.1% 69.8% 8.9% 9.3% 156 343 16 41 29 161 111 141 2,182 2,491 125.9% 77.3% 7.9% 9.0% -6 4 -605 -681 27.8% 27.3% -184 -239 1,388 1,574 171.1% 39.0% 5.0% 5.7% Q4 28,482 17.4% 7,893 27.7% 5,902 4.5% 20.7% 1,992 46.6% 7.0% 2,445 36.7% 8.6% 262 9 163 90 2,255 49.9% 7.9% -458 -734 40.9% -226 837 -16.0% 2.9% FY03/16 Q1 Q2 27,991 31,581 22.1% 14.7% 8,243 9,677 29.4% 30.6% 6,083 6,811 21.7% 18.8% 21.7% 21.6% 2,160 2,866 69.1% 41.5% 7.7% 9.1% 2,584 3,303 54.0% 35.4% 9.2% 10.5% 374 177 150 7 94 44 130 126 2,534 3,043 77.1% 39.5% 9.1% 9.6% -2 -32 -742 -807 29.3% 26.8% -230 -275 1,558 1,930 64.2% 39.0% 5.6% 6.1% FY03/14 FY03/15 FY03/16 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 20,231 23,733 22,680 24,257 22,932 27,531 27,792 28,482 27,991 31,581 8,661 8,795 8,604 8,948 8,872 8,779 9,780 9,101 9,945 9,565 5,440 7,168 6,699 6,756 6,021 9,608 9,257 9,470 7,540 9,766 1,727 2,182 2,071 2,492 2,620 2,749 2,838 3,368 3,798 4,613 2,189 2,887 2,543 2,929 2,594 2,964 2,750 3,508 2,869 3,514 2,212 2,701 2,762 3,133 2,823 3,432 3,166 3,035 3,837 4,123 14,453 3,014 2,686 78 3.1% -3.1% 0.0% 1.0% 23.6% 25.3% 17,162 3,105 3,378 86 1.0% 2.3% -20.8% 45.5% 26.4% 30.1% 16,540 3,228 2,841 71 9.6% 0.7% -5.4% 48.6% 30.3% 60.4% -9.8% -1.9% 7.2% 9.4% 14.6% 11.8% 257.7% 5.2% 23.7% 825 750 1,124 471 579 475 -60 -662 -127 29 168 175 261 410 400 -128 -140 -167 253 394 367 4.1% 3.2% 5.0% 5.4% 6.6% 5.5% -1.1% -9.2% -1.9% 1.7% 7.7% 8.5% 11.9% 14.2% 15.7% -5.8% -5.2% -6.0% 18,567 3,098 2,511 81 22.3% 10.5% 11.3% 55.9% 31.2% 71.4% 17,362 3,153 2,333 82 13.4% 2.4% 10.7% 51.7% 18.5% 27.6% 20,027 3,140 4,282 83 16.0% -0.2% 34.0% 26.0% 2.7% 27.1% 20,418 3,209 4,086 78 22.5% 13.7% 38.2% 37.0% 8.1% 14.6% 21,943 3,183 3,271 85 17.4% 1.7% 40.2% 35.2% 19.8% -3.1% 21,607 2,990 3,318 74 22.1% 12.1% 25.2% 45.0% 10.6% 35.9% 24,967 2,958 3,571 85 14.7% 9.0% 1.6% 67.8% 18.6% 20.1% 24.4% 20.1% 16.7% 23.4% 18.2% 24.4% 24.7% 17.3% 4.6% 1.1% -0.6% 2.7% -5.2% -5.8% 16.1% -13.1% 26.8% 43.8% 30.3% 42.2% -16.6% 1,359 1,277 2,026 2,147 1,992 2,160 2,866 441 438 347 388 425 679 617 229 104 759 860 622 348 771 3 59 38 22 32 91 163 406 414 494 451 625 562 762 -107 -72 -114 -146 -266 -294 -191 388 333 502 572 555 773 743 5.6% 5.6% 7.4% 7.7% 7.0% 7.7% 9.1% 4.9% 4.9% 4.0% 4.0% 4.7% 6.8% 6.5% 3.4% 1.7% 7.9% 9.3% 6.6% 4.6% 7.9% 0.1% 2.3% 1.4% 0.8% 1.0% 2.4% 3.5% 13.9% 16.0% 16.7% 16.4% 17.8% 19.6% 21.7% -3.4% -2.6% -3.3% -4.6% -8.8% -7.7% -4.6% FY03/16 1H % of 1H 1H Act. Init. Est. 108.3% 59,572 55,000 18.1% 17,920 30.1% 12,894 20.1% 21.6% 132.3% 5,026 52.2% 8.4% 5,887 43.0% 9.9% 551 157 138 256 136.0% 5,577 54.4% 9.4% -34 -1,549 27.9% -505 139.5% 3,488 49.3% 5.9% FY03/16 1H 2.3% 3,800 55.8% 4,100 56.9% 2,500 58.1% % of 1H 1H Act. Init. Est. 59,572 19,510 17,306 8,411 6,383 7,960 46,574 5,948 6,889 159 18.1% 10.5% 10.7% 56.7% 14.8% 27.3% 24.6% -5.5% 4.1% 5,026 1,296 1,119 254 1,324 -485 1,516 8.4% 6.6% 6.5% 3.0% 20.7% -6.1% FY03/16 FY % of FY FY Est. 51.8% 115,000 7.7% 9,000 20.9% 7.8% 9,800 17.2% 8.5% 6,000 26.4% 5.2% FY03/16 FY % of FY FY Est. 51.8% 115,000 55.8% 9,000 Source: Shared Research based on company data www.sharedresearch.jp 06/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Trends and outlook LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 1H FY03/16 results (out October 30, 2015) Quarterly earnings Marine paints 30.0 25.3 21.2 20.0 10.0 2.4 1.1 17.6 7.9 0.0 (JPYbn) Q1 FY03/11 2.7 2.5 20.0 9.5 25.0 25.1 3.1 2.9 3.7 4.8 18.1 10.2 17.3 8.7 Q3 23.1 2.5 3.8 16.8 7.3 Industrial paints 25.0 22.4 22.0 3.4 2.8 2.2 2.6 2.1 19.0 17.3 18.2 2.6 5.7 5.5 Q1 FY03/12 5.1 Q3 Container paints 23.7 23.5 19.6 2.7 2.8 0.8 3.2 16.0 17.5 8.4 4.1 Q1 FY03/13 OPM (%) 20.7 19.8 20.2 3.1 2.9 2.3 2.6 2.2 3.0 2.7 3.4 15.4 14.9 6.1 Q3 14.5 4.1 3.5 Q1 FY03/14 17.2 3.2 22.7 3.2 2.8 16.5 5.0 24.3 3.1 2.5 18.6 5.6 Q3 Operating profit (right-axis) 31.6 27.5 27.8 28.5 28.0 3.0 22.9 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.6 3.2 2.3 4.3 4.1 3.3 3.3 20.0 20.4 21.9 21.6 7.4 7.7 7.0 7.7 17.4 5.6 Q1 FY03/15 Q3 3.0 2.0 25.0 1.0 9.1 Q1 FY03/16 0.0 Q3 (JPYbn) Exchange rate assumptions (mid-year and year-end) 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 Q1 FY03/07 JPY/USD (mid-year average) JPY/USD (year end) JPY/EUR (mid-year average) JPY/EUR (year end) 20 18 16 JPY/RMB (mid-year average) JPY/RMB (year end) JPY/100KRW (mid-year average) JPY/100KRW (year end) 14 12 10 8 Q1 FY03/09 Q1 FY03/11 Q1 FY03/13 Q1 FY03/15 6 Q1 FY03/07 Q1 FY03/09 Q1 FY03/11 Q1 FY03/13 Q1 FY03/15 Source: Shared Research based on company data Earnings summary Mainstay marine paints capture demand; favorable exchange rates also contribute to 18.0% YoY sales growth In 1H FY03/16, sales were JPY59.6bn (up 18.0% YoY; up about 11% excluding forex effects) and operating profit was JPY5.0bn (up 52.2% YoY). In mainstay marine paints, production volume of new ships continued to bottom in key shipbuilding countries (such as Japan, Korea, and China), while demand was steady in ship repairs. By capturing steady demand in these markets, the company saw sales in marine paints rise by 24.6% YoY to JPY46.6bn, bolstering overall consolidated results. Industrial paints stagnant in domestic and overseas markets; momentum declining in container paints Sales of industrial paints were down 5.5% YoY, to JPY5.9bn, caused by stagnant demand in the construction sector in Japan due to the lingering effects of the consumption tax hike, alongside sluggish performance overseas. Although container paints were strong at the beginning of FY03/16, the market began to lose momentum from Q2 onward, leading to sales of JPY6.9bn, up 4.1% YoY. Improved profitability absorbs effects of VOC tax hike in China; operating profit up 52.2% and OPM up 1.9pp YoY Operating profit grew by 52.2% YoY, the result of higher sales and improved profitability. GPM improved by 2.3pp to 30.1% as lower raw materials costs offset the effects of an increase in the Chinese volatile organic compound (VOC) tax, which pushed down profits by more than JPY200mn. The lower raw material costs were primarily caused by lower oil prices and measures to cut procurement costs. The company’s initial estimates included the effects of the higher VOC tax. Chinese VOC tax: A consumption tax of 4% is applied to compounds with a VOC value that exceeds 420g/l. The tax applies to products manufactured or imported on or after February 1, 2015. www.sharedresearch.jp 07/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Trends and outlook LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 SG&A expenses increased due to higher sales commission fees and personnel expenses. Risk from customers defaulting––initially seen as a concern at the beginning of FY03/16––did not prove to be a major issue. As a result, operating profit was JPY5.0bn (up JPY1.7bn YoY), and OPM was 8.4% (up 1.9pp YoY). Marine paints Marine paints 30.0 Japan China Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US YoY (right-axis) 24% 25.0 20.0 17.6 20.0 18.1 17.3 16.8 19.0 17.3 18.2 16.0 15.0 -5% 10.0 -5% -4% -4% 5.0 0.0 (JPYbn) 17.5 5% 15.4 17.2 14.9 14.5 7% 16.5 18.6 20% 24% 23% 17% 20.0 20.4 18% 21.9 30% 25% 25.0 20% 21.6 10% 17.4 0% -2% -8% -10% -10% -11% -20% -18% Q1 FY03/11 Q3 Q1 FY03/12 Q3 Q1 FY03/13 Q3 Q1 FY03/14 Q3 Q1 FY03/15 Q3 Q1 FY03/16 Q3 -30% Source: Shared Research based on company data In marine paints, although the overall new ship production market was showing signs of bottoming out, credit risk was rising in the ship production industry in China and Korea. This credit risk was incorporated into the company’s initial estimates for FY03/16, but was not an issue during 1H. Japan Sales were JPY16.6bn, up 14.0% YoY. In the domestic market, the company expected paint for new ships to see slightly lower demand in 2015 than in 2014. The domestic shipping market is seeing price competition is intensifying against a backdrop of a weaker yen, and the bulk shipping market is subject to a slowing Chinese economy and concerns of economic stagnation in emerging markets. Still, the domestic market saw less of an effect compared to other markets by shifting from bulk ships to ships such as tankers. CMP’s market share was on par with FY03/15, slightly increasing to over 60%. China Sales were JPY10.4bn, up 20.2% YoY. The company forecasts the Chinese market to be smaller than it initially expected due to the effects of a downturn in bulk shipping. Still, CMP also sees that the market hit bottom in fiscal 2013 and 2014, and is recovering. CMP’s sales grew significantly, and it maintained its market share amid the recovering market and forex impact. Korea Sales were JPY8.4bn, up 59.1% YoY. The Korean shipbuilding industry was struggling, pressured by technological competition and the weaker yen from Japan, and cost competitiveness in China. The company was focusing on marine resource development, given the drop in oil prices and resulting market stagnation. In 2015, marine paint demand was boosted due to an increase in completed ships, but the company forecasts demand to decrease in 2016. Despite this market environment, CMP’s sales activities to shipowners expanded its market share and bolstered sales. Repair demand A rush in repair demand in spring 2015 boosted CMP’s 1H FY03/16 results. Demand was spurred by the impending adoption of the International Convention for the Control and Management of Ships' Ballast Water and Sediments, which www.sharedresearch.jp 08/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Trends and outlook LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 seeks to prevent the movement of harmful organisms and pathogens within ballast water.* However, this demand was cooling as of November 2015. *International Convention for the Control and Management of Ships' Ballast Water and Sediments: Ratified by the International Maritime Organization in February 2004, the conditions for activation have not yet been satisfied as of November 2015. The conditions are ratification by 30 or more countries (satisfied) and the total shipping tonnage of the ratified countries to achieve 35% of global volume (32.86% as of August 2015). The convention will go into effect 12 months from the day the conditions are satisfied. Key countries that have yet to ratify and are possible candidates to do so in the near future are Italy (1.39% of global shipping tonnage), Indonesia (1.14%), and India (0.78%). Industrial paints Industrial paints 3.5 Japan 3.0 3.1 2.7 China 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 Korea 2.9 Southeast Asia 2.8 Europe/US 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.2 YoY (right-axis) 3.1 3.0 2.6 15% 12% 17% 3.1 3.1 1% 3% 1% 3.2 -7% 0.0 (JPYbn) Q1 FY03/11 Q3 Q1 FY03/12 -9% 20% 3.0 15% 5% 3% -1% 1% 0% -5% 1.0 0.5 3.0 10% 5% 6% 1.5 3.2 12% 9% 2.0 3.2 -6% -5% -10% -10% Q3 Q1 FY03/13 Q3 Q1 FY03/14 Q1 FY03/15 Q3 Q3 Q1 FY03/16 -15% Q3 Source: Shared Research based on company data Industrial paints were weak, both in Japan and abroad. In the domestic market, recovery was sluggish for construction-related paints, which account for about two-thirds of the company’s sales. Overseas sales were weak given a significant portion of sales coming from petrochemical plants (with sluggish performance) in Southeast Asia. The company appears to have adopted a cautious stance for 2H, in light of the sluggish trends in Japan and overseas during 1H. Domestic sales and new housing starts New housing starts floor area 1,934 25 1,665 1,651 1,495 20 1,429 1,420 1,550 1,405 1,523 1,471 Domestic indusrial paints (right axis) 1,628 1,594 1,616 1,679 1,706 1,560 1,373 2,000 1,539 1,365 1,363 1,414 1,337 1,600 15 1,200 10 800 5 0 400 17.8 19.3 19.6 17.2 Q1 FY03/11 (mn sqm) 18.5 21.0 18.7 17.6 Q1 FY03/12 19.4 Q1 FY03/13 20.4 21.0 18.6 21.7 Q1 FY03/14 23.1 23.9 18.7 18.8 Q1 FY03/15 18.9 19.3 17.0 19.6 Q1 FY03/16 19.5 0 (JPYmn) Source: Shared Research based on company data www.sharedresearch.jp 09/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Trends and outlook LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Container paints Container paints 5.0 China 4.8 3.7 4.0 3.0 Southeast Asia 3.8 3.4 2.1 36% 1.0 -40% Q1 FY03/11 258% 3.2 2.2 1.1 0.0 YoY (right-axis) 248% 2.5 2.0 (JPYbn) Europe/US Q3 Q1 FY03/12 -57% Q3 0.8 -6% 4.3 3.4 2.2 3% 5% 3.3 2.8 2.7 2.3 400% 4.1 5% 2.5 24% 16% 300% 3.6 3.3 200% 2.3 -13% 27% 44% 30% 100% 42% -17% 0% -80% Q1 FY03/13 Q3 Q1 FY03/14 Q3 Q1 FY03/15 Q3 Q1 FY03/16 Q3 -100% Source: Shared Research based on company data Container paints show volatile performance. Demand appeared to be softening from Q2 onward, and CMP was expecting it to decelerate in 2H, as some demand from 2H was pushed forward to 1H. Still, full-year figures for 2015 are expected to be on par with 2013. China (export) containerized freight index 1,400 1,200 1,300 1,100 1,200 1,000 1,100 1,000 900 900 800 800 700 700 600 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 600 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Source: Shared Research based on Bloomberg data www.sharedresearch.jp 10/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Trends and outlook LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Breakdown of sales Sales by product category (JPYmn) Marine paints Japan China Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US YoY Japan China Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US Industrial paints Japan China Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US YoY Japan China Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US Container paints China Southeast Asia Europe/US YoY China Southeast Asia Europe/US FY03/14 Q1 Q2 14,453 17,162 6,988 7,094 2,681 3,703 1,722 2,157 937 1,584 2,122 2,626 -9.8% -1.9% -4.6% 0.9% -40.6% -34.0% 1.2% 44.3% 15.5% 17.9% 26.5% 30.5% 3,014 3,105 1,594 1,616 347 412 5 24 1,020 1,027 46 26 9.4% 14.6% 4.7% 9.9% -5.7% -8.2% -37.5% 300.0% 28.6% 35.8% -23.3% -7.1% 2,686 3,378 2,411 3,054 230 277 43 49 257.7% 5.2% 332.9% 2.1% 38.6% 49.7% 65.4% 36.1% Q3 16,540 6,853 3,691 2,064 1,276 2,656 7.2% 0.3% -19.9% 48.4% 36.6% 60.1% 3,228 1,679 467 8 1,023 52 11.8% 3.1% 9.6% 166.7% 25.8% 188.9% 2,841 2,541 244 55 23.7% 24.2% 20.2% 22.2% Q4 18,567 7,162 4,222 2,480 1,682 3,021 24.4% 8.0% 11.8% 56.1% 45.4% 70.2% 3,098 1,706 356 12 983 41 17.3% 24.3% 4.1% 50.0% 9.6% 95.2% 2,511 2,177 265 69 16.1% 11.5% 48.0% 115.6% FY03/15 Q1 Q2 17,362 20,027 7,229 7,331 3,598 5,087 2,578 2,679 1,300 1,713 2,656 3,217 20.1% 16.7% 3.4% 3.3% 34.2% 37.4% 49.7% 24.2% 38.7% 8.1% 25.2% 22.5% 3,153 3,140 1,560 1,365 422 544 42 70 1,049 1,020 77 142 4.6% 1.1% -2.1% -15.5% 21.6% 32.0% 740.0% 191.7% 2.8% -0.7% 67.4% 446.2% 2,333 4,282 2,000 3,977 243 232 89 73 -13.1% 26.8% -17.0% 30.2% 5.7% -16.2% 107.0% 49.0% Q3 20,418 8,163 4,987 2,815 1,411 3,041 23.4% 19.1% 35.1% 36.4% 10.6% 14.5% 3,209 1,539 499 22 1,108 41 -0.6% -8.3% 6.9% 175.0% 8.3% -21.2% 4,086 3,771 232 84 43.8% 48.4% -4.9% 52.7% Q4 21,943 7,653 6,038 3,344 1,970 2,938 18.2% 6.9% 43.0% 34.8% 17.1% -2.7% 3,183 1,363 483 24 1,274 39 2.7% -20.1% 35.7% 100.0% 29.6% -4.9% 3,271 2,949 263 58 30.3% 35.5% -0.8% -15.9% FY03/16 Q1 Q2 21,607 24,967 8,456 8,143 4,324 6,113 3,787 4,578 1,461 2,150 3,578 3,981 24.4% 24.7% 17.0% 11.1% 20.2% 20.2% 46.9% 70.9% 12.4% 25.5% 34.7% 23.7% 2,990 2,958 1,414 1,337 336 425 11 34 1,151 1,103 75 61 -5.2% -5.8% -9.4% -2.1% -20.4% -21.9% -73.8% -51.4% 9.7% 8.1% -2.6% -57.0% 3,318 3,571 2,878 3,229 256 261 183 81 42.2% -16.6% 43.9% -18.8% 5.3% 12.5% 105.6% 11.0% FY03/16 1H 1H Act. 46,574 16,599 10,437 8,365 3,611 7,559 24.6% 14.0% 20.2% 59.1% 19.8% 28.7% 5,948 2,751 761 45 2,254 136 -5.5% -5.9% -21.2% -59.8% 8.9% -37.9% 6,889 6,107 517 264 4.1% 2.2% 8.8% 63.0% Source: Shared Research based on company data www.sharedresearch.jp 11/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Trends and outlook LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Company forecasts and outlook Full-year company forecasts (out October 29, 2015) Income statement (JPYmn) Sales YoY Operating profit YoY OPM Recurring profit YoY RPM Net income YoY Net margin Perfomance by segment (JPYmn) Sales Japan China Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US FY03/14 1H 43,964 1.9% 1,575 -43.2% 3.6% 2,149 -23.9% 4.9% 1,140 -28.7% 2.6% FY03/14 1H 43,964 17,456 12,608 3,909 5,076 4,913 Marine coatings Industrial coatings Container coatings YoY Japan China Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US Operating profit Japan China Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US Elimination OPM Japan China Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US YoY Japan China Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US 31,615 6,119 6,064 1.9% -0.5% -13.0% 21.8% 25.2% 27.9% 1,575 1,050 -722 197 671 -268 647 3.6% 6.0% -5.7% 5.0% 13.2% -5.5% -43.2% -20.0% 3,840.0% 36.4% - FY03/15 1H 50,463 14.8% 3,303 109.7% 6.5% 3,613 68.1% 7.2% 2,337 105.0% 4.6% FY03/15 1H 50,463 17,651 15,629 5,369 5,558 6,255 FY 2H 56,274 106,737 19.9% 17.4% 7,442 4,139 83.4% 66.7% 7.4% 7.0% 8,359 4,746 63.1% 65.3% 8.4% 7.8% 4,748 2,411 13.2% 45.2% 4.3% 4.4% 2H 46,937 15.8% 2,483 27.7% 5.3% 2,909 26.8% 6.2% 2,129 54.3% 4.5% FY 90,901 8.7% 4,058 -13.9% 4.5% 5,058 -1.2% 5.6% 3,269 9.8% 3.6% 2H 46,937 17,552 13,455 4,563 5,472 5,895 FY 90,901 35,008 26,063 8,472 10,548 10,808 35,107 6,326 5,352 15.8% 5.4% 2.3% 52.5% 30.8% 66.1% 2,483 916 102 178 806 -274 755 5.3% 5.2% 0.8% 3.9% 14.7% -4.6% 27.7% 1.6% -72.1% 65.8% - 37,389 42,361 66,722 12,445 6,293 6,392 7,357 11,416 6,615 19.9% 14.8% 8.7% 7.6% 2.4% 1.1% 24.0% 39.2% -5.7% 36.6% 37.3% 36.0% 9.5% 14.4% 28.0% 27.3% 5.2% 46.2% 4,058 3,303 4,139 813 1,966 785 863 1,482 -620 97 54 375 1,076 908 1,477 -186 -412 -542 1,402 835 1,127 4.5% 6.5% 7.4% 4.4% 4.3% 5.6% 5.5% 7.9% -2.4% 4.4% 1.8% 0.9% 17.2% 14.0% 16.3% -3.0% -6.6% -5.0% -13.9% 109.7% 66.7% -11.2% -25.2% -11.2% - 1,352.9% -50.8% -69.7% 51.0% 35.3% 33.5% - 2H FY 56,274 106,737 36,532 18,881 18,727 34,356 11,575 6,206 6,258 11,816 6,201 12,456 79,750 12,685 13,972 17.4% 4.4% 31.8% 36.6% 12.0% 15.2% 7,442 1,598 2,345 151 1,984 -598 1,962 7.0% 4.4% 6.8% 1.3% 16.8% -4.8% 83.4% -18.7% -59.7% 34.3% - FY03/16 revised FY03/16 Initial est. 1H 2H Est. FY Est. 1H Est. 2H Est. FY Est. 59,572 55,428 115,000 55,000 60,000 115,000 7.7% 6.6% 9.0% 18.1% -1.5% 7.7% 3,974 9,000 3,800 4,200 8,000 5,026 7.5% 1.5% 15.0% 20.9% -4.0% 52.2% 7.0% 7.0% 8.4% 7.2% 7.8% 6.9% 4,223 9,800 4,100 4,700 8,800 5,577 5.3% -1.0% 13.5% 17.2% -11.0% 54.4% 7.7% 7.8% 9.4% 7.6% 8.5% 7.5% 2,500 2,800 5,300 6,000 2,512 3,488 11.6% 16.1% 7.0% 26.4% 49.3% 4.2% 4.6% 5.9% 4.5% 5.2% 4.5% 4.7% FY03/16 revised FY03/16 Initial est. FY Est. FY Est. 1H Est. 2H Est. 1H 2H Est. 59,572 55,428 115,000 55,000 60,000 115,000 19,510 17,306 8,411 6,383 7,960 46,574 5,948 6,889 18.1% 10.5% 10.7% 56.7% 14.8% 27.3% 5,026 1,296 1,119 254 1,324 -485 1,516 8.4% 6.6% 6.5% 3.0% 20.7% -6.1% 52.2% 65.1% 29.7% 161.9% 45.8% - -1.5% 3,974 7.2% -4.0% - 7.7% 9,000 7.8% 20.9% - 9.0% 3,800 6.9% 15.0% - 6.6% 4,200 7.0% 1.5% - 7.7% 8,000 7.0% 7.5% - Source: Shared Research based on company data Revised company forecasts On October 29, 2015, CMP made upward revisions to its 1H FY03/16 and full-year FY03/16 forecasts. It cited the following reasons: ◤ Robust demand for marine paints for new ships, and a rush in demand for ship repairs due to the impending adoption of the International Convention for the Control and Management of Ships' Ballast Water and Sediments; ◤ ◤ Improved profitability overall; No issues regarding clients defaulting, initially expected for 1H. In 2H forecasts, however, sales and profits were revised down. The company stated the following reasons: ◤ Some 2H demand may have been pushed forward to 1H, given the robust repair demand; www.sharedresearch.jp 12/52 R Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Chugoku Marine Paints > Trends and outlook ◤ ◤ ◤ ◤ LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Decelerating demand for container paints, which was robust in Q1; In industrial paints, caution regarding construction demand in Japan and plant demand in Southeast Asia; Concerns regarding recovering liabilities in the hundreds of millions of yen; Possible effects of lower oil prices and raw materials costs not included in domestic forecasts. Market forecasts for 2016 (CMP’s FY03/17) Marine paints CMP’s 2016 market forecasts (November 2015) Japan: The company estimates that the 2016 domestic market will be on par with 2015. This is due to increased competitiveness from the weaker yen and the shift away from bulk shipping. China: Although 2015 undershot initial expectations due to a decline in bulk shipping, the company has not changed its view that the Chinese market has been recovering after bottoming in 2013 and 2014. It appears that CMP expects market in 2016 to be on par with or higher than the 2012 market. Korea: The Korean shipbuilding industry was struggling, pressured by the weaker yen from Japan, and cost competitiveness in China. In particular, recent focus placed on offshore structures combined with lower oil prices was hurting the Korean marine paint market. In 2015, marine paint demand was boosted due to an increase in completed ships, but the company forecasts demand to decrease in 2016. Repairs As the compliance deadline approaches, 2016 may see the same rush demand as in the previous year. Despite that possibility, Shared Research believes that the company was expecting the same level of demand in 2016 as in the latter half 2015, based on the fact that the rush demand had subsided in the second half of 2015. www.sharedresearch.jp 13/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Trends and outlook LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Outlook Targeting sales of JPY120bn and operating profit of JPY10bn In the medium-term, CMP target sales of JPY120bn (up 12.4%, or JPY13.3bn, versus FY03/15) and operating profit of JPY10bn (up 34.4%, or JPY2.6bn). Target sales mix for paint: 60% ships, 20% containers, and 20% industrial-use CMP sees the following factors as key to reaching its targets: ▶ ▶ ▶ ▶ Establish a leading market share in paint for ships and containers; Expand into offshore structures; Cultivate new markets in the industrial sector; Improve profitability. The company’s sales mix as of FY03/15: 75% ships, 13% containers, and 12% industrial. But the company wants to make paint for containers and industrial reach 20% each. Even without the 60:20:20 sales mix, given FY03/16 forecasts (revised up on October 29, 2015), the company could achieve its medium-term sales targets. But to grow sales beyond JPY120bn, accelerated growth in container and industrial paints is necessary. Other important conditions include a recovery of the container paint market and developing new markets in industrial paints. Top market share in ship and container paint Aim for top market share by improving weaker areas CMP has top global market shares for marine and container paints. Yet certain regions and markets pose challenges, and it seeks to improve in these areas. The company’s market share estimates for paint (as of FY03/15) stand at under 30% for new ships, about 20% for ship repairs, and under 30% for containers. Plans seek to increase these figures to over 30% for new ships and containers, and almost 30% for repairs. Ship construction undertaken in major shipbuilding countries and demand for marine paints Orders on hand (end 2014) Western Europe/ Northern Europe 2% Others 9% Korea 31% Global Japan 17% China 41% Ship repairs 60% CMP New shipbuil ding 40% Ship repairs 45% New shipbuil ding 55% Source: Shared Research based on World Shipbuilding Statistics, company data www.sharedresearch.jp 14/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Trends and outlook LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Global market share by market segment (unit volume; company estimates) New ships Japan/new ships Ship repair China/new ships Korea/new ships 20% 28% China/container 15% 28% 28% 56% CMP Other CMP Other CMP Other CMP Other CMP Other CMP Other Source: Shared Research based on company data Repair demand According to company estimates, in the overall market, marine paint demand comprises about 40% for new ships and 60% for ship repairs in 2015. In contrast, for CMP, new ships accounted for about 55% of sales, demonstrating CMP’s strength in the new ship market, but also space to capture demand in the ship repair market. Global marine transport volume (million tons) and shipping tonnage 14,000 Crude oil Petroleum products Coal Iron ore LPG/LNG Others 1,400 Shipping tonnage (mn of gross tons, right axis) 12,000 1,200 10,000 1,000 8,000 800 6,000 600 4,000 400 2,000 200 (mnt) 0 CY85 CY90 CY95 CY00 CY05 CY10 CY15 0 (mn gross tons) Source: The Japanese Shipowners’ Association, IHS, Clarkson, Shared Research based on company data New shipbuilding order volume, completion volume, and orders on hand 400 Orders on hand Order volume Completion volume Completion volume/orders on hand (right axis) 8 350 7 300 6 250 5 200 4 150 3 100 2 50 1 0 (mn gross tons) CY94 CY95 CY96 CY97 CY98 CY99 CY00 CY01 CY02 CY03 CY04 CY05 CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 0 Source: Shared Research based on materials from The Japanese Shipowners’ Association and HIS Aim to establish its brand CMP has been able to acquire a high market share in the new ship market due to its connections with ports and shipowners, combined with strong sales activities. In the ship repair market, however, customer needs vary—some value cost while others value functionality. Customers in Europe tend to be particularly sensitive to costs. To further increase market share in marine paint for new ships, CMP plans to focus on sales activities to shipowners, and strengthening brand recognition leveraging its position as a market leader. New products that demonstrate functionality and quality are essential, as is a strong track record. www.sharedresearch.jp 15/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Trends and outlook LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 CMP was able to provide efficient and quality products, and to strengthen its track record. It was one of the first marine paint companies to adapt its products to meet environmental needs. The company introduced its SEAFLO NEO series of anti-fouling paints in 2010. SEAFLO NEO significantly reduces VOC (volatile organic compounds), and improves fuel efficiency through reduced friction. As of 1H FY03/16, its NEO series—including SEAFLO NEO Z, introduced in 2014—accounted for over half of marine paint sales. CMP plans to increase market share through sales activities leveraging the track record of its SEAFLO NEO series. Strengthening partnerships CMP has made creating a global structure a top priority, and has created a global service network for production (plants), supply (storage locations), and marketing (sales offices). As of October 2015, it had a presence in about 30 countries and 80 bases (production, supply and marketing). Its network includes local subsidiaries, as well as technological partnerships with companies overseas. CMP has already extended its network into key regions, and it plans to continue expansion into locations with potential long-term demand, such as areas with potential natural resources or economic growth. Responding to environmental concerns through VOC products for container paint The company has a container paint market share of almost 30%, and is focusing on further growth through development of environmentally compliant paint. It thinks that stricter regulations will mean an industry shift to water-based paints, and began test sales of a water-based paint in 2013. China is seeing tightening environmental regulations, such as added taxation on paints with VOC over a certain level. According to the company, all major marine paint manufacturers have developed water-based paints for containers, although performance varies. The industry has yet to transition to water-based paints due to cost issues such as creating facilities for organic solvents, but this could change with stricter VOC policies in China. Chinese VOC tax: A consumption tax of 4% is applied to compounds with a VOC value that exceeds 420g/l. The tax applies to products manufactured or imported on or after February 1, 2015. Expansion into offshore structures Winning orders for large-scale projects, despite slow start of Japanese companies (CMP’s customers) CMP’s market share in offshore structures is small. While Japanese companies (CMP’s primary customers) were slow to develop offshore structures for marine resource development, non-Japanese companies were actively entering the market. As a result, rival firm International Paint (subsidiary of Akzo Nobel N.V.; Euronext: AKZA) captured a large global market share, compared to CMP, which relied on Japanese companies. Although development projects around the world are being postponed or canceled due to low oil prices, it is still a large market, and remains on the company’s radar. Order balance for major Korean shipbuilding companies (USDbn, October 2015) Samsung Heavy Industries Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Hyundai Heavy Industries Hyundai Samho Total Order balance 36.6 43.7 38.8 8.8 127.9 Shipping 18.2 23.7 17.8 8.8 68.5 Marine structures 18.4 20.0 21.0 59.4 Source: Shared Research based on company data To enter marine development, the company established a marine development department in 2012. In 2013, its products were chosen for use in the MOSE project, large-scale mobile gates to prevent flooding in Venice, Italy. Anti-flooding gates are typically installed underwater to prevent damage to the surrounding environment. This requires materials with high levels of anti-corrosion and anti-fouling functions. After evaluating various coating materials and www.sharedresearch.jp 16/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Trends and outlook LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 systems for more than 10 years, the MOSE project selected CMP’s products—primarily Bioclean. The company’s paints were delivered in line with construction progress, and sales were recorded on a quarterly basis during FY03/15. The company expects continued demand from the second stage of construction. Maintenance is to be conducted every five to ten years, for 100 years. In 2014, the company’s anti-corrosion products—primarily BANNOH 2000—were selected for use in the construction, maintenance, and operation of the Uruguay-based Floating LNG Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU), undertaken by Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. (TSE1: 9104). As of October 2015, the FSRU project was under construction by Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co., Ltd. (Korea-based KRX: 042660), and had the largest LNG storage tank in the world, with capacity of 263,000 cubic meters. It is slated for operation in mid 2017. CMP’s has high market share when considering sales solely to Japanese companies. It is particularly strong in offshore wind power generation, where it holds 90% domestic market share. If the market share of Japanese companies grows, then CMP’s market share should follow suit. Still, amid a decline in oil prices, more time may be required until global investment in marine resource development and LNG gain momentum. Development and sales department to market new applications and coordinate industrial and marine segments overseas In July 2015, the company established a development and sales department to oversee the existing marine department and overseas industrial sales department. This new department serves to win new projects and lead development of new product applications, in addition to coordinating operations between the industrial and marine segments. CMP’s market share in offshore structures is small, so Shared Research sees significant potential to expand market share. Offshore structures April 2015 Total Planning Costructing Operating 237 73 368 October 2015 FPSO FSO SEMI TLP SPAR FSRU BARGE Floating Production, Storage and Offloading Vessel Floating Storage and Offloading Vessel Production Semisubmersible Tension Leg Platform Production Spar (cylingrical shape) Floating LNG Storage and Regasification Unit South America Gulf of Mexico South America Gulf of Mexico 50 22 64 40 4 15 1 1 6 Canada 27 4 54 1 2 North Sea 44 12 61 2 Canada 8 1 9 17 19 US 8 US Mediterranean 27 10 48 North Sea 37 15 4 5 13 2 10 Mediterranean 24 9 13 2 3 7 1 1 Southwest Asia Middle East Southeast Asia Oceania 10 6 18 Southwest Asia Middle East 36 14 80 Southeast Asia Oceania 3 8 7 25 49 2 1 1 2 2 China 13 3 15 9 16 China 11 2 13 1 1 1 Source: Shared Research based on the Floating Production Systems Report published by Energy Maritime Associates Seeking new markets in industrial paints CMP aims to increase industrial paints to 20% of sales, by leveraging its core technologies in new areas. Its heavy anti-corrosion technology includes anti-fouling paint for use in offshore structures and offshore wind power plants, as well as CONTECT (to prevent peeling of concrete in humid environments). CMP began sales of CONTECT in 2013. In June 2015, CONTECT WE100 (with additional special fibers) was registered on the New Technology Information System (NETIS) of the Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. NETIS is a system to evaluate and promote technologies for public works projects. CONTECT is used to prevent and repair concrete peeling in public infrastructure such as highways and railroads. According to the information registered in NETIS, this product reduces lead times by as much as 50% compared with previous methods of attaching layers of fiber sheets, cutting total costs by more than 20% on lower personnel and facilities expenses. Although sales for this product as of FY03/15 were still in the tens of millions of yen, the company anticipates future growth. www.sharedresearch.jp 17/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Trends and outlook LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Enter the automotive market leveraging its paints for woodwork Apart from the heavy anti-corrosion sector, CMP is seeking to break into the high function paint market. A key product is PHOLUCID—a hard coating material intended for use in automotive headlight covers. This product takes CMP’s UV curable paint technology for woodwork and applies it to plastics. Headlight covers typically use polycarbonate materials, which become opaque and yellow, and are easy to scratch. The company provides hard coatings to protect these polycarbonate materials. As of November 2015, evaluations had been completed in the US, and the company had applied for regulatory approval. It was expecting the product to enter the market in 2016. Strengths of PHOLUCID (per CMP): 1. Curing starts immediately after ultraviolet light irradiation, leading to faster production lines 2. Large-scale drying ovens are not necessary, leading to compact facilities and simpler production lines 3. High hardness properties, contributes to durability 4. Various functions can be incorporated to meet customer needs 5. Possible to apply to various materials including ABS and PET plastics The company does not expect PHOLUCID to reach the target of 20% of sales in the near future given the small scale of sales of high function paints. Still, through the development and sales department CMP seeks to expand its products and their applications. Other products that saw new applications include CMP LINER (uses technology from the CUS product, a railway caulking resin to fill gaps between beams and crossties which has been sold to bullet train and railway operators both in Japan and abroad for more than 40 years), and EVATRON (a radio wave absorbing paint that can reduce interference and prevent corrosion). CONTECT PHOLUCID Improving profitability Targeted sales of JPY120bn and operating profit of JPY10bn imply a target OPM of 8.3%. Using the revised FY03/16 forecasts (sales of JPY115bn, operating profit of JPY9bn, OPM of 7.8%), Shared Research calculates that CMP may be able to post an operating profit of JPY10bn if it hits its sales targets. The company thinks it can improve profitability even further, if it can increase efficiency and lower costs. CMP is exploring initiatives such as unmanned factories, inventory cost reductions, and consolidation and discontinuation of certain products and raw materials. Unmanned factories CMP is exploring the implementation unmanned factories. This initiative was triggered by environmental factors (measures to combat VOC), and cost factors (personnel expenses). Plans call for tests in Europe, followed by expansion into its key production bases in Shanghai and Japan. www.sharedresearch.jp 18/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Trends and outlook LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 To curb manufacturing and raw materials costs, the company is also considering reducing inventory costs by improving inventory efficiency, and consolidation and discontinuation of certain products and raw materials. Comparison of company estimates and historical results Forecasts versus results (JPYmn) Initial forecasts Q1 Q2 Q3 Sales Results vs. initial forecasts vs. Q1 vs. Q2 vs. Q3 Initial forecasts Q1 Q2 Q3 Operating Results profit vs. initial forecasts vs. Q1 vs. Q2 vs. Q3 Initial forecasts Q1 Q2 Q3 Recurring Results profit vs. initial forecasts vs. Q1 vs. Q2 vs. Q3 Initial forecasts Q1 Q2 Q3 Net income Results vs. initial forecasts vs. Q1 vs. Q2 vs. Q3 FY03/09 Cons. 107,000 107,000 107,000 107,000 103,622 -3.2% -3.2% -3.2% -3.2% 8,300 8,300 8,300 8,300 8,429 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 7,800 7,800 7,800 7,800 7,899 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 5,300 5,300 5,300 5,300 5,031 -5.1% -5.1% -5.1% -5.1% FY03/10 Cons. 94,000 94,000 87,000 87,000 86,810 -7.6% -7.6% -0.2% -0.2% 8,000 8,000 9,300 9,300 9,995 24.9% 24.9% 7.5% 7.5% 7,500 7,500 9,200 9,200 10,268 36.9% 36.9% 11.6% 11.6% 4,800 4,800 5,000 5,000 5,422 13.0% 13.0% 8.4% 8.4% FY03/11 Cons. 92,000 92,000 92,000 92,000 96,595 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10,100 10,100 10,100 10,100 8,823 -12.6% -12.6% -12.6% -12.6% 10,300 10,300 10,300 10,300 9,114 -11.5% -11.5% -11.5% -11.5% 5,600 5,600 5,600 5,600 5,701 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% FY03/12 Cons. 100,000 100,000 95,000 95,000 93,560 -6.4% -6.4% -1.5% -1.5% 9,000 9,000 5,700 5,700 5,474 -39.2% -39.2% -4.0% -4.0% 9,250 9,250 6,000 6,000 6,040 -34.7% -34.7% 0.7% 0.7% 5,250 5,250 3,500 3,500 3,067 -41.6% -41.6% -12.4% -12.4% FY03/13 Cons. 92,000 92,000 84,500 84,500 83,656 -9.1% -9.1% -1.0% -1.0% 4,000 4,000 4,900 4,900 4,715 17.9% 17.9% -3.8% -3.8% 4,200 4,200 5,000 5,000 5,119 21.9% 21.9% 2.4% 2.4% 2,500 2,500 2,900 2,900 2,978 19.1% 19.1% 2.7% 2.7% FY03/14 Cons. 84,000 84,000 84,000 84,000 90,901 8.2% 8.2% 8.2% 8.2% 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,058 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 4,200 4,200 4,200 4,200 5,058 20.4% 20.4% 20.4% 20.4% 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 3,269 25.7% 25.7% 25.7% 25.7% FY03/15 Cons. 96,000 96,000 96,000 105,000 106,737 11.2% 11.2% 11.2% 1.7% 5,500 5,500 5,500 7,000 7,442 35.3% 35.3% 35.3% 6.3% 6,000 6,000 6,000 7,800 8,359 39.3% 39.3% 39.3% 7.2% 3,700 3,700 3,700 5,000 4,748 28.3% 28.3% 28.3% -5.0% FY03/16 Est. 115,000 115,000 115,000 8,000 8,000 9,000 8,800 8,800 9,800 5,300 5,300 6,000 Source: Shared Research based on company data www.sharedresearch.jp 19/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Business, market and value chain LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Business, market and value chain Business description Earnings Sales 160,000 OP GPM (right axis) OPM (right axis) 40% 140,000 35% 120,000 30% 100,000 25% 80,000 20% 60,000 40,000 20,000 (JPYmn) 0 11.5% 5.0% 2,113 4.3% 1,808 FY03/99 3.6% 1,658 FY03/01 7.7% 6.9% 5.3% 3,481 2,598 FY03/03 4,294 7.4% 4,721 5.4% 3,632 FY03/05 8.2% 7,257 7.8% 8,132 FY03/07 8,429 FY03/09 15% 9.1% 8.1% 5.9% 9,995 8,823 FY03/11 5,474 5.6% 4,715 4.5% 4,058 FY03/13 7.0% 7,442 FY03/15 10% 5% 0% Sales by market 120 100 Marine paints Industrial paints Container paints 88.2 80 60 40 20 (JPYbn) 0 104.8 Others 41.9 45.8 10% 26% 13% 27% 63% 58% 49.0 50.2 9% 25% 10% 25% 64% 64% 55.8 14% 23% 62% 63.4 15% 22% 61% 67.8 16% 20% 63% 26% 25% 106.7 103.6 15% 86.8 13% 2% 12% 14% 96.6 93.6 13% 12% 12% 11% 83.7 10% 13% 90.9 13% 13% 12% 14% 15% 58% 60% 71% 86% 76% 76% 76% 73% 75% FY03/00 FY03/01 FY03/02 FY03/03 FY03/04 FY03/05 FY03/06 FY03/07 FY03/08 FY03/09 FY03/10 FY03/11 FY03/12 FY03/13 FY03/14 FY03/15 Source: Shared Research based on company data Business expansion History 2017 marks 100th anniversary since founding; core competency in marine paints The company was founded in 1917 by a former technical officer of the Kure Naval Arsenal as a domestic pioneer in anti-fouling paint. At that time, the majority of anti-fouling paints for both public and private use were sourced from overseas. In its initial year, the company acquired patents in Japan, the UK, and the US, and was registered as a naval supplier in 1926. In addition to anti-fouling paints, the company acquired patents for products such as oxygen-generating agents and synthetic resins. A focus on research and prioritizing technology remains part of the company’s DNA. CMP’s HQ and resin production facility in 1929 Source: Company data www.sharedresearch.jp 20/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Business, market and value chain LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 CMP’s anti-fouling paints were chosen as a “superior domestic product” by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry in September 1930, and designated as a “standard paint” by the Ministry of the Navy of Japan in March 1931. CMP grew in tandem with Japan’s postwar shipping industry, expanding into industrial and container paints. Expanding from marine paints to container paints; shifting production locations to capture top market share In the 1973, CMP established a main overseas base in Hong Kong, and expanded into container paints. It shifted its production of container paints from Japan to Korea, Taiwan, and China. CMP held about 30% share in the container paint market. Business trends 120 12 12 10 10 80 8 8 60 6 6 40 4 4 20 2 2 Sales excluding marine pains Marine paints sales Reccurring profit (right axis) 100 0 (JPYbn) FY03/80 FY03/90 FY03/00 0 FY03/10 FY03/15 0 Reccurring profit (JPYbn)FY03/80 14% RPM (right axis) 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% FY03/90 FY03/00 0% FY03/10 FY03/15 Source: Shared Research based on company data Local production for local consumption; creating overseas network through partnerships In 1985, the Plaza Accord caused a rapid appreciation in the yen, and the company took advantage of this opportunity to establish production bases overseas, working throughout the 1990s and 2000s to consolidate its network. In contrast with standard overseas production models, the company aimed for local production for local consumption. By partnering with local firms to license its technology, the company filled regional gaps, leading to its current overseas network. CMP still uses this model of localized production and consumption. In the industrial paints sector, which has various applications, the company narrowed its focus during the 1990s to concentrate resources on heavy anti-corrosion (anti-rust) and wooden materials (construction materials). Overseas network Source: Company data www.sharedresearch.jp 21/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Business, market and value chain LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Technology responding to environmental concerns Leveraging technology to expand; core competency in anti-fouling paints Anti-fouling paints are a segment of marine paints where technological ability is particularly valuable. As environmental concerns grow, the company has prioritized developing environmentally compliant anti-fouling paints. In the late 1980s, organotin compounds (particularly tributyltin), frequently used in anti-fouling paints, were discovered to have detrimental effects on marine life. CMP swiftly responded by terminating anti-fouling paints that contained organotin compounds, and worked to develop more environmentally friendly products. Swift response to global tin-free movement; success in gaining market share Organotin compounds are suitable for use as biocides, but in 2001an international agreement adopted by the International Maritime Organization banned new coats of anti-fouling paints containing organotin from 2003 onward. From 2008, the organotin compounds were banned outright. This meant either complete removal of the compounds from ships, or a protective coat to prevent them from leaking into the environment. This tin-free movement significantly impacted the marine paints industry. In the 1980s International Paint was the market leader, followed by five smaller firms, but Japanese companies were able to quickly catch up and expand market share due to their early development of tin-free paints. In Japan a voluntary ban on the compounds was enacted by the Japan Paint Manufacturers Association in the 1990s. In the 2000s, hydrolysable paints that react with seawater to become hydrophilic resins became the industry standard. Hydrophilic resins dissolve with seawater, demonstrating anti-fouling properties. Competition for development of tin-free paints is heated among Japanese companies, especially between Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE1: 4612), NOF Corporation (TSE1: 4403), and CMP. CMP strengthened its product lineup through development of all types of hydrolysable paints, including acrylic polymer and silyl polymer. These strengths in development and product variety contributed to strong brand recognition, and in combination with improved sales activities, CMP gained the leading position in the domestic market. Hydrolysable anti-fouling paints (SEAFLO NEO series, etc.) and hydration separation paints (SEAJET series, etc.) Anti-fouling paint Seawater Material Material Material Resin contained in the anti-fouling paint undergoes chemical reaction with seawater Paint is broken up and resin is released Remaining anti-fouling agent is released, preventing attachment of organisms Anti-fouling paint Seawater Material Material Material Resin contained in the anti-fouling paint undergoes chemical reaction with seawater Hydration layer is created Anti-fouling agent contained in hydration layer is released, preventing attachment of organisms Source: Shared Research based on company data Market share CMP holds almost 30% of the global market in anti-fouling paints for new ships, and almost 20% for ship repairs. It has made steady market share gains over the past two decades, increasing its share in anti-fouling paints for new ships in Japan to 60% (from more than 40% prior to 2000), Korea to 20% (from 10%), and China to 30% (following the start of large-scale ship production there). Its share for container paints has also grown to almost 30% (from about 20%) in China, www.sharedresearch.jp 22/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Business, market and value chain LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 which accounts for 95% of global container production. Global market share by market segment (unit volume; company estimates) New shipbuilding Ship repair Japan/new ship building China/new shipbuilding Korea/new ship building 20% 28% China/container 15% 28% 28% 56% CMP Other CMP Other CMP Other CMP Other CMP Other CMP Other Source: Shared Research based on company data Note: Figures for new ships and ship repair are for FY03/15; figures for new ships by region and Chinese containers are five-year totals. Competitors Marine paints: Top three market leaders (including CMP) hold 70% share; top five hold 90% share Competitors in marine paints include International Paint (Netherlands), Jotun Group (Norway; unlisted), Hempel Group (Denmark; unlisted), and PPG Protective & Marine Coatings (US; subsidiary of PPG Industries; NYSE: PPG). CMP, International Paint, and Jotun account for about 70% of the global market. Including Hempel and PPG, these top five companies hold about 90% of the global market. Each company has joint ventures or partnerships in key shipbuilding countries––Japan, China, and Korea. Joint ventures and partnerships for major marine paint companies Japan China Korea Chugoku Marine Paints, Ltd. Chugoku Marine Paints, Ltd. - Chugoku Marine Paints Shanghai, Ltd. 92% stake Chugoku-Samhwa Paints. Ltd. 59.46% stake International Paint International Paint Japan KK International Paint of Shanghai, Co. Ltd. International Paint (Korea) Ltd. Jotun NOF Kansai Marine Coatings Co., Ltd Guangzhou Jotun Ocean Paint Co., Ltd. Chokwang-Jotun Ltd. Hempel Dai Nippon Toryo Co., Ltd (TSE1:4611) Hempel-Hai Hong Coating Co., Ltd. Dongin Industrial Co., Ltd. PPG (Sigma Coating) Shinto Paint Co., Ltd. (TSE1:4615) Sigma Coatings (Kunshan) Co., Ltd. SFC Paint Source: Shared Research based on company data Container paints: CMP and COSCO Kansai hold top global market share, top four companies hold 80–90% global market share In container paints, CMP and COSCO Kansai Paint & Chemicals (joint venture between Kansai Paint Co., Ltd. [TSE1: 4613] with a 35.29% stake and COSCO International Holdings Limited [SEHK: 517], established in 1992) together hold about 50-60% of the market. Combined with Hyundai Group’s KCC Corporation (KRX: 002380) and Hempel, these four companies have an oligopoly, holding 80-90% market share. Industrial paints: Construction materials account for about 2/3 of domestic sales; market share of over 50% in wood floor coatings In industrial paints, the company maintains a high market share within Japan in anti-fouling paints for power generation and wood floor coatings. CMP controls more than 50% of the market in wood floor coatings. Combined with Washin Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. (unlisted), Natoco Co., Ltd. (TSE JASDAQ: 4627), and DIC Corporation (TSE1: 4631), the four companies have a market share of close to 100%. Production and development Production bases centered on local production, local consumption Under the model of local production, CMP has manufacturing bases in various countries. Marine paints are manufactured www.sharedresearch.jp 23/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Business, market and value chain LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 at all of its bases. Container paints are manufactured in China, where demand is highest. Industrial paints are manufactured in Southeast Asia, China, and Japan, where demand is high. Production capacity of marine paints is about 25,000 metric tons per month, with almost half produced in Shanghai and Guangdong, China, and less than 40% in Japan. Utilization rates are about 90%, and particularly busy months are managed through overtime production. No significant investments expected, excluding unmanned plants The company’s production capacity is increasing, and investment is not likely to spike in the immediate future. However, it is considering building unmanned plants, and related investment may be made at plants in Europe, Shanghai, and Japan. The company stated that about JPY1.5bn is required to establish a plant with monthly output of 2,000–5,000 tons. Factoring in the additional investment required for an unmanned factory, the figure could be JPY2.0–2.5bn. Production capacity by location and plans for capacity increase contained in securities reports for the past 10 years Production capacity by location 10~20 % 40% 50% Japan China Others Annual securities report Plant location Details FY03/06 Shanghai, China Coating material production facilities FY03/09 Shanghai, China FY03/10 Capacity increase Started Completed (Planned) Planned investment Investment (JPYmn) (JPYmn) (t/month) 2,800 891 3,500 Aug-05 Sep-06 New factory 2,500 770 4,280 Nov-08 Mar-10 Shanghai, China New factory 2,500 1,537 4,280 Nov-08 Mar-10 Korea Coating material production facilities 121 - 1,000 May-10 Aug-10 FY03/12 Shanghai, China Coating material production facilities 1,050 93 500 Jun-12 Jun-13 FY03/14 Shanghai, China Coating material production facilities 1,050 480 500 Jul-12 Aug-13 FY03/13 Shanghai, China Coating material production facilities 1,331 1,248 500 Jul-12 Jun-14 FY03/15 Kyushu Coating material production facilities 298 - 1,000 Apr-15 Jan-16 Source: Shared Research based on company data Creating global supply structure through out-licensing CMP’s global supply network includes licensees of its technology. The following table outlines major overseas partnerships. CMP receives an initial upfront payment and royalties based on sales. www.sharedresearch.jp 24/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Business, market and value chain LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Licensees and royalties received Egypt Brazil Argentina 120 100 Royalties received % of recurring profit (right axis) 50 35 43 1.2% 1.3% 34 52 3.0% 1.2% FY03/00 FY03/02 FY03/04 FY03/08 2.0% 74 2.0% 1.5% 1.2% 0.7% FY03/06 2.5% 84 1.5% 1.0% 0.9% 76 73 1.5% 1.4% paints paints paints paints paints paints paints paints paints 101 1.8% 51 42 of of of of of of of of of 116 72 20 (JPYmn) technology technology technology technology technology technology technology technology technology 92 2.1% 40 0 110 2.8% 80 60 Technology Manufacturing Manufacturing Manufacturing Manufacturing Manufacturing Manufacturing Manufacturing Manufacturing Manufacturing Licensing Jacobsen Manufacturing Ltd. Supalux Paint Co. Pty. Ltd. Charter Chemical & Coating Corp. Dekro Paints (PTY) Ltd. Haiphong Paint Joint Stock Company Petro Vietnam Paint Joint Stock Company Suez Canal Paints & Chemicals Co. Renner Herrmann S. A. Sinteplast S. A. New Zealand Australia The Philippines Republic of South Africa Vietnam 1.0% 0.8% FY03/10 1.0% 0.5% FY03/12 0.0% FY03/14 Source: Shared Research based on company data Development structure: Hiroshima (marine, containers) and Shiga (industrial) as backbones; possible aggressive investment Production is concentrated in Hiroshima (marine paints, container paints, resins) and Shiga (industrial paints). Marine paints are developed in Hiroshima and produced in areas such as Kyushu. Container paints are developed in Hiroshima and produced in China. Industrial paints are both developed and produced in Shiga. Technology departments are located in Shanghai, Korea, Singapore, and the Netherlands, and serve to adjust formulas to local conditions, and customize products to meet local needs. While master formulas are created in Japan, each local market has different materials that may be used, materials that may be bought at lower costs, and demand, so the local departments optimize and adjust the master recipes to meet local needs. The Netherlands base also gathers data on CMP’s European competitors. R&D expenses are almost JPY2.0bn, mainly from personnel expenses. As it has sufficient funds, the company plans to actively invest in R&D. R&D expenses 2,000 1,500 3.5% 1,486 % of sales (right axis) R&D expenses 3.3% 1,511 1,316 2.7% 1,382 1,179 2.3% 1,000 1,386 1,496 2.2% 2.2% FY03/00 FY03/02 1,908 1,902 1,789 1,605 1,714 1,849 4.0% 3.0% 2.2% 2.0% 1.7% 0 1,939 1,216 500 (JPYmn) 1,800 FY03/04 FY03/06 1.5% FY03/08 1.7% 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.0% FY03/10 FY03/12 FY03/14 0.0% Source: Shared Research based on company data www.sharedresearch.jp 25/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Business, market and value chain LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Major group companies Domestic Hong Kong Shanghai, China Guangdong, China Korea Singapore Malaysia Netherlands Indonesia Thailand(*) US Ohtake-Meishin Chemical, Co., Ltd Kobe Paints, Ltd. CHUGOKU MARINE PAINTS (Hong Kong), Ltd. CHUGOKU MARINE PAINTS (Shanghai), Ltd. CHUGOKU MARINE PAINTS (Guang Dong), Ltd. CHUGOKU SAMHWA PAINTS, Ltd. CHUGOKU MARINE PAINTS (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. CHUGOKU MARINE PAINTS (Malaysia) Sdn. Ltd. CHUGOKU MARINE PAINTS B.V. P.T. CHUGOKU PAINTS INDONESIA TOA-CHUGOKU PAINTS Co., Ltd. CMP COATINGS, Inc. Investment ratio 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 92.0% 100.0% 59.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 54.6% 49.0% 100.0% Business Production of raw materials (resins) Production and sale of paint. Separate brand consolidated in 1994 Product sales Product manufacturing and sales Product manufacturing and sales Product manufacturing and sales Product manufacturing and sales Product manufacturing and sales Product manufacturing and sales Product manufacturing and sales Product manufacturing and sales* Product manufacturing and sales Source: Shared Research based on company data * Made a consolidated subsidiary given its substantial performance As of FY03/15, the company had 24 consolidated subsidiaries. Aside from Kobe Paints, Ltd., all have a financial year-end in December. Although the company’s stake in its Thai subsidiary is 49.0%, CMP controls operations and so it is consolidated. When analyzing income from equity-method affiliates, focus on Thailand, Korea, and China Income from equity-method affiliates is heavily influenced by the performance of consolidated subsidiaries in Thailand (49.0% stake; mainly industrial paints) and Korea (59.5% stake; mainly marine paints). Performance of the Shanghai subsidiary (92% stake) is also a factor, as container paints are volatile and almost entirely target the Chinese market. All joint ventures are local companies. Earnings from equity-method subsidiaries 0 FY03/00 -200 -95 FY03/02 -130 -280 -400 FY03/04 -219 -269 -600 -800 FY03/06 -252 -5.3% -6.5% -9.2% -8.3% -1,200 Minority interests in income and loss FY03/10 FY03/12 FY03/14 0% -2% -217 -5.0% -396 -426 -6.0% -586 -7.3% -1,000 (JPYmn) FY03/08 -619 -6.9% -717 -9.3% -901 -8.9% -4% -410 -6% -571 -6.6% -808 -8.1% -9.7% -8% -10% -10.2% -12% Minority interests in income and loss/earnings before income taxes (right axis) Source: Shared Research based on company data www.sharedresearch.jp 26/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Business, market and value chain LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Segments Structure by segment Sales (top) and operating profit (bottom) by segment Japan Southeast Asia 120 100 China Europe/US Korea Asia 103.6 88.2 80 60 40 20 0 42.3 41.9 27.2 28.5 FY03/99 (JPYbn) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 104.8 45.8 49.0 50.2 29.5 29.1 29.7 FY03/01 55.8 86.8 8.4 6.3 10.4 67.8 63.4 20.4 31.8 FY03/03 FY03/05 39.6 35.3 34.5 33.2 FY03/07 0.1 1.5 0.4 0.7 2.0 0.9 2.4 -0.0 2.0 FY03/99 0.5 1.1 0.7 1.5 2.5 2.6 0.8 2.4 3.0 2.8 FY03/03 FY03/01 (JPYbn) 1.0 1.9 FY03/05 1.3 2.0 5.8 2.1 1.4 41.4 FY03/09 2.1 1.9 43.6 5.7 2.0 FY03/07 7.9 7.7 9.1 31.2 31.4 40.8 37.5 83.7 7.4 8.2 6.2 12.5 10.8 11.8 11.6 10.5 8.5 27.6 26.1 34.2 35.0 34.4 36.5 FY03/13 2.9 2.5 5.1 3.0 8.6 7.4 8.5 90.9 FY03/15 3.7 1.4 5.1 93.6 FY03/11 3.1 2.2 106.7 96.6 1.7 3.7 -0.9 2.5 -1.1 -1.1 FY03/11 FY03/09 3.1 2.7 2.6 1.1 2.2 -0.9 2.0 -0.6 -0.5 2.3 1.6 -0.6 FY03/13 Japan China Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US Asia Others Elimination Corporate expenses OP FY03/15 Source: Shared Research based on company data The company’s reportable segments are divided by region. CMP also releases sales by region and market. As regional segments have a combination of marine, industrial, and container paints, the data can be difficult to decipher. It is more effective to consider the company’s performance by product category—marine paints, industrial paints, and container paints. Sales by region (FY03/15, JPYbn) (JPYbn) Japan 5.8 16% China Korea 0.3 1% Southeast Asia 0.2 1% Marine paints Industrial paints Container paints Others 4.5 38% 19.7 57% 1.9 6% 30.4 83% 0.3 0.3 3% 2% 1.0 8% 12.7 37% Europe/US 6.4 54% 11.9 95% 11.4 99% Marine paints Marine paints Industrial paints Container paints Others Marine paints Industrial paints Container paints Others Industrial paints Container paints Others Marine paints Industrial paints Container paints Others Segment summary (JPYmn) Sales and % of sales FY03/05 FY03/15 10 years average growth rate Japan China Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US Marine paints 38,913 79,750 7% 30,376 19,710 11,416 6,394 11,852 61% 75% 38% 25% 14% 8% 15% Container paints 14,112 22% 13,972 13% -0% 12,697 91% 970 7% 304 2% Industrial paints 9,723 12,685 3% 5,827 1,948 158 4,451 299 15% 12% 46% 15% 1% 35% 2% Wooden flooring Electric anti-fouling Over 50% Approx.2/3 Market share New shipbuilding Less than 30% Ship repair Approx. 20% China Clients Shipowner/shipyard Container manufacturer/shipowner Less than 30% Building material and plant industries Source: Shared Research based on company data www.sharedresearch.jp 27/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Business, market and value chain LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Business by product category Marine paints (75% of FY03/15 sales) Sales of marine paints 90 Japan China Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US 80 73.7 70 74.3 63.4 60 51.2 50 40 26.8 26.3 30 31.6 32.1 34.3 38.9 42.9 20 0 71.2 8.3 4.2 8.5 7.6 4.2 9.1 18.2 19.0 33.7 10 (JPYbn) 79.8 72.9 FY03/00 FY03/02 FY03/04 FY03/06 FY03/08 31.4 FY03/12 FY03/10 63.9 66.7 7.1 4.2 6.2 10.4 18.5 14.3 27.8 28.1 5.5 8.4 11.9 6.4 11.4 19.7 30.4 FY03/14 Source: Shared Research based on company data Summary Marine paints primarily used in large ships such as tankers Marine paints are used primarily for large ships such as tankers, bulk ships, and container ships, but also for pleasure boats and fishing boats. This business has built upon core technologies developed since the company’s founding, and has high margins compared with other product categories. In particular, CMP has been able to add value in anti-fouling paints. The following describes the company’s business structure for paints for large ships, which account for the majority of sales. Demand: new ships and repairs (averaging three years) Demand for large ships can be divided into new ships and ship repairs. Shipbuilding is done primarily in China, Japan, and Korea. Repair demand is centered in Southeast Asian areas such as Singapore, given the location along global shipping lanes and the concentration of shipping and maintenance companies in those countries. Global demand for marine paints is about 40% for new ships and 60% for ship repairs. CMP is a global market leader, with almost 30% share in new ships and more than 20% in ship repairs. The sales composition is split 55:45 between new ships and ship repairs. Demand for new ships occurs at various stages during the shipbuilding process, but the initial stages show the most demand. The ship repair cycle is two to five years, with an average of three years. Demand is heavily influenced by global shipping tonnage. During repairs, anti-fouling paints are completely reapplied. Each repair cycle sees the re-emergence of competition, so a high market share in new ships does not translate into a high share in repairs. Generally, it seems that about 1% of a ship’s overall manufacturing cost is earmarked for paint. Ship construction undertaken in major shipbuilding countries and demand for marine paints (company estimates) Orders on hand (end 2014) Western Europe/ Northern Europe 2% Others 9% Korea 31% Global Japan 17% China 41% Ship repairs 60% CMP New shipbuil ding 40% Ship repairs 45% New shipbuil ding 55% Source: Shared Research based on World Shipbuilding Statistics, company data www.sharedresearch.jp 28/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Business, market and value chain LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 New ship demand The marine transport industry has continued to grow amid global economic growth and globalization. Increased marine transport volume has boosted demand for shipping. Increased shipping tonnage (number of ships multiplied by average capacity per ship) have led to demand for new ships. Demand for new ships was particularly robust from 2003, in line with China’s rapid economic growth. Shipbuilding orders fell sharply during the global financial crisis. In the shipbuilding industry, after 2010–2012, when orders received in 2007–2008 were completed, the number of orders for new ships was on a downtrend. This surplus shipping capacity led to falling prices, compressing margins in the marine transport industry, and leading to fewer new ships being built. In 2013, orders received began to recover, and it appears that conditions have bottomed out in core shipbuilding countries such as Japan, China, and Korea. The number of orders on hand in these countries at end 2014 has been steady for about two years, leading CMP to expect shipbuilding demand to be steady. Still, paint prices have declined due to constrained spending on shipbuilding following the global financial crisis, and this effect has remained through FY03/15. Global marine transport volume and shipping tonnage 14,000 Crude oil Petroleum products Coal Iron ore LPG/LNG Others 1,400 Shipping tonnage (mn of gross tons, right axis) 12,000 1,200 10,000 1,000 8,000 800 6,000 600 4,000 400 2,000 200 (mnt) 0 CY85 CY90 CY95 CY00 CY05 CY10 CY15 0 (mn gross tons) Source: The Japanese Shipowners’ Association, IHS, Clarkson, Shared Research based on company data New shipbuilding order volume, completion volume, and orders on hand 400 Orders on hand Order volume Completion volume 8 Completion volume/orders on hand (right axis) 350 7 300 6 250 5 200 4 150 3 100 2 50 1 0 (mn gross tons) CY94 CY95 CY96 CY97 CY98 CY99 CY00 CY01 CY02 CY03 CY04 CY05 CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 0 Order volume, completion volume, and orders on hand in main shipbuilding countries 70 Orders on hand Order volume 60 50 Japan 140 100 40 80 30 60 20 40 10 20 0 0 (mn gross tons) CY00 CY05 Orders on hand Order volume 120 CY10 (mn gross tons) 160 China Orders on hand Order volume 140 120 Korea 100 80 60 40 20 CY00 CY05 CY10 0 (mn gross tons) CY00 CY05 CY10 Source: Shared Research based on data from the Japanese Shipowners’ Association and HIS www.sharedresearch.jp 29/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Business, market and value chain LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Repair demand Repair demand for paint is driven by bottom paint, which deteriorates with age. Demand fluctuates less for ship repair than for new ships, although there is some volatility. In addition, demand can spike with stricter regulations, as companies rush to comply. On the whole, demand for repairs is steady. When repairing ships, anti-fouling paints are reapplied to the entire bottom. The ship repair cycle is about two to five years, with an average of three years. The amount of paint is driven by surface area but also by how much shipping volume. As a result, more shipping volume means more paint. Primary uses for CMP products in large-scale ships Interior: Anti-corrosion paint, water-resistant paint, living quarters paint, etc. Deck paint Anti-fouling paint Exterior panel paint Tank paint Source: Shared Research based on company data Business structure From receiving orders to booking sales The construction of a large ship requires between three to four years from contract signing to completion. After the contract is signed, stages include planning and design, ship block construction, block installation, launch and rigging, testing, and delivery. The keel must be laid about six months prior to delivery, and contracts for paint must be signed about one to two years before the keel is laid. As most of marine paint sales are booked during the stage when the keel is laid, from receiving an order to recording sales can take between one and two years. Block installation is done either on a berth or in a construction dock. The official beginning of construction of a ship either on a berth or in a construction dock is called laying the keel. Launch entails floating the ship that was previously in a berth or construction dock. Completion refers to the completion of all construction work . www.sharedresearch.jp 30/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Business, market and value chain LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Ship construction process 1)Request from client Requests received from client for specifications and cost estimates 2)Contract/order Win order and execute contract 3)Plan/design Three-dimensional computer model created Model based on designs and conduct tests in pools created 4)Lay the keel Large ships are made via the block construction method Parts are constructed by block, and construction occurs on berths or in docks Includes cutting, bending, welding, construction, and painting of the hull After parts are joined, water is flooded into the dock and the ship is floated (launch) Anchored to the port, internal construction is undertaken (rigging) 5)Launch/rigging 6)Testing Test runs are made to ensure the ship meets design specifications 7) Delivery Source: Shared Research based on company data, and the Japanese Shipowners’ Association Customers: ports and shipowners for new ships, shipowners for repairs Customers for new ships and ship repairs vary slightly. For new ships, shipowners contract with shipyards to build a ship. Unless requested by the future owner, the shipyard chooses paints based upon a standardized list according to the intended use of the ship. However, when paint reapplication is required for ship repairs, shipowners contract directly with paint manufacturers. The shipowner can request a certain paint type, even those not on the list, so sales to shipowners become essential. In paint for new ships, the company aims to be included on the standard list and to be requested by shipowners. In paint for repairs, the company is directly targeting shipowners, including operators. Maintaining and increasing market share requires strong connections with shipyards and shipowners The company has gained a high market share in the new shipbuilding market due to its connections with shipyards and shipowners, which it strengthens through sales activities. Yet in the ship repair market, customer needs vary—some value cost while others value functionality. Customers in Europe are particularly cost sensitive. Sales strategy map for marine paints Sales Repairs: Ship owners New ships: Shipbuilders (Attempt to capture requests from ship owners) Ship owner (Pure owner) Shipbuilding facility Repair order (Shipbuilding companies) Ship owner (Marine transport company) Sales (Registration on standard list) Charter and New ship construction order Shipbuilding facility (Shipbuilding companies) Delivery of paints Chugoku Marine Paints Source: Shared Research based on company data Where are sales booked? New ships: sales are booked in the country of the shipyard where the ship is built. Paints are delivered to the shipyard. Ship repairs: sales are booked in the country where the shipowner is based. The shipowner places the order. Geographic segment profits In international shipping, shipowners and shipyards are unevenly distributed geographically. In response, CMP has established a group to unify its global network and win orders. Although localized production and consumption is a core policy for CMP, raw materials may be sourced from and operating expenses concentrated in certain regions. This can cause geographic segment profits to show up as losses. www.sharedresearch.jp 31/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Business, market and value chain LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Regional characteristics Japan Marine paint sales for the Japanese market 10% Marine paints sales (Japan) 8% YoY 50 30% 8.3 5% 33.7 28.1 27.8 0% 30.4 -7% -5% -11% -10% -15% FY03/11 FY03/12 FY03/13 Marine paints sales (Japan) 8.3 8.4 40 20% 1% 31.4 8.7 FY03/14 FY03/15 10 YoY 8.2 7.3 7.0 6.8 6.6 7.0 7.1 6.9 7.2 7.2 7.3 8.5 7.7 8.1 8 30 10% 6 20 0% 4 10 -10% 2 0 -20% FY03/16 7.98.0 7.77.7 (JPYbn) Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 FY03/11 FY03/12 FY03/13 FY03/14 FY03/15 FY03/16 0 (JPYbn) Source: Shared Research based on company data Japanese companies have global market share of 20% (new ships); CMP holds 60% domestic share in new ships, top in repairs Based on completed projects, Japan has a global market share of about 20% in the market for new ships (2014). New ships comprise 38% of marine paint sales (FY03/15). In new ships, the company holds a market share of about 60% in Japan. For repairs it faces fierce competition for the top market share. As of 2014, it was second to NKM Coatings Co., Ltd. (wholly owned subsidiary of Kansai Paint; partnered with Jotun). CMP has relative strength in large ocean-going vessels, but as the bulk of domestic demand comes from coastal vessels, it cannot use this strength in Japan. However, Shared Research thinks that the company is more focused on competing for ocean-going vessel demand, which represents a larger market. Competition for Japanese coastal vessel repair is limited to domestic competitors, but in overseas ocean-going vessels it is competing with International, Jotun, Hempel, and PPG. Keels laid for new ships and domestic sales Industrial and others 12,000 Marine Domestic keels laid for new ships (gross tons, right axis) 5,000 10,000 4,000 8,000 3,000 6,000 2,000 4,000 1,000 2,000 0 0 (JPYmn) Q1 FY03/04 Q1 FY03/05 Q1 FY03/06 Q1 FY03/07 Q1 FY03/08 Q1 FY03/09 Q1 FY03/10 Q1 FY03/11 Q1 FY03/12 Q1 FY03/13 Q1 FY03/14 Q1 FY03/15 -1,000 Q1 FY03/16 (gross tons) Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Shared Research based on company data Orders received, orders completed, and orders on hand in Japan 80 Orders on hand Order volume Completion volume Completion volume/orders on hand (right axis) 8 70 7 60 6 50 5 40 4 30 3 20 2 10 1 0 (mn gross tons) CY94 CY95 CY96 CY97 CY98 CY99 CY00 CY01 CY02 CY03 CY04 CY05 CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 0 Source: The Japanese Shipowners’ Association, Shared Research based on HIS data www.sharedresearch.jp 32/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Business, market and value chain LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Domestic repair demand (gross tons) and domestic sales 75 50 25 60 40 20 40 45 30 15 30 30 20 10 20 15 10 5 10 0 0 0 Domestic repair volume FY03/99 FY03/03 Domestic sales (right axis) FY03/07 FY03/11 FY03/15 FY03/99 FY03/03 50 Domestic sales (right axis) Domestic keels laid volume FY03/07 FY03/11 FY03/15 0 (JPYbn) (JPYbn) Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Shared Research based on company data Domestic new ship and repair demand Although domestic repair demand fell in 2000–2005, CMP’s sales were gently rising. This was due to the company shifting its ship repair docks for ocean-going vessels, such as to China and Singapore. As of 2015, domestic ship repair demand was centered on coastal vessels. Shared Research does not foresee any further decline in domestic repair demand. Domestic keels laid and repair demand 60% Domestic keels laid volume YoY 40% 20% 6,000 60% Domestic repair volume YoY 5,000 40% 12,000 10,000 4,000 20% 8,000 3,000 0% 6,000 -20% 2,000 -20% 4,000 -40% 1,000 -40% 2,000 -60% 0 0% (gross tons) Q1 FY03/04 Q1 FY03/06 Q1 FY03/08 Q1 FY03/10 Q1 FY03/12 Q1 FY03/14 Q1 FY03/16 -60% (gross tons) Q1 FY03/04 Q1 FY03/06 Q1 FY03/08 Q1 FY03/10 Q1 FY03/12 Q1 FY03/14 Q1 FY03/16 0 Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Shared Research based on company data Domestic anti-fouling paint demand The following charts show a correlation between CMP’s solvent-based anti-fouling paints, and anti-fouling paint sales in the Japanese market. Domestic anti-fouling paint shipments and the company’s domestic marine-related sales 5,000 12,000 50% 40% 4,000 10,000 1,600 30% 20% 1,200 10% 3,000 8,000 - 800 -10% -20% 2,000 Q1 FY03/04 (JPYmn) Q1 FY03/06 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 FY03/08 FY03/10 FY03/12 FY03/14 FY03/16 Domestic anti-fouling paint shipments Marine paints sales (Japan, right axis) 6,000 400 -30% -40% Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (JPYmn) Domestic anti-fouling paint shipments YoY (JPYmn) Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan Paint Manufacturers Association, Shared Research based on company data www.sharedresearch.jp 33/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Business, market and value chain LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 China Marine paint sales for the Chinese market 40% Marine paints sales (China) 38% YoY 30% 20% 19.0 18.2 16 20% 14.3 12 -10% -23% -20% -30% FY03/11 FY03/12 FY03/13 FY03/14 FY03/15 5.4 20 40% -3% 0% Marine paints sales (China) 24 60% 19.7 18.5 4% 10% 28 80% FY03/16 5.3 5.1 4.0 3.7 4.2 YoY 5.6 4.7 4.8 4.5 7 6.1 6.0 6 5.1 5.0 4.6 3.8 3.7 3.7 5 4.3 4.2 3.6 4 2.7 0% 3 8 -20% 2 4 -40% 1 0 -60% (JPYbn) 0 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 FY03/11 FY03/12 FY03/13 FY03/14 FY03/15 FY03/16 (JPYbn) Source: Shared Research based on company data China has a global market share of about 35% for new ships (completed) in 2014. CMP’s sales composition of marine paints is 25% for new ships (FY03/15). The company has a market share in Chin of almost 30% for new ships, and jostles with Jotun for the prime position. Shipbuilding in China grew in tandem with the country’s rapid economic development. Yet a limited number of Chinese companies have the necessary shipbuilding technology to shift away from the bulk shipping market, meaning the Chinese market could be hit if the bulk shipping market declines. Many Japanese companies, by contrast, can use their technologies to shift from manufacturing bulk ships to tankers or other ships. Jotun—which competes with CMP for the top position—established Jotun Ocean Paint in 1993 in partnership with COSCO. As such, for new ships and ship repairs involving COSCO, order will go to Jotun. However, CMP has been successful in acquiring other customers, and its share in China has been about 30% from 2005. Orders received, orders completed, and orders on hand in Japan (millions of gross tons) 150 Orders on hand Order volume Completion volume 10 Completion volume/orders on hand (right axis) 135 9 120 8 105 7 90 6 75 5 60 4 45 3 30 2 15 1 0 CY94 CY95 CY96 CY97 CY98 CY99 CY00 CY01 CY02 CY03 CY04 CY05 CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 0 Source: The Japanese Shipowners’ Association, Shared Research based on HIS data Korea Marine paint sales for the Korean market Marine paints sales (Korea) 40% YoY 36% 11.4 20% 8.5 6% 9.1 0% FY03/12 FY03/13 Marine paints sales (Korea) 12 20% 4 FY03/15 0 FY03/16(JPYbn) 5 4.6 3.8 4 3.3 2.9 2.6 8 -20% FY03/14 YoY 40% 0% -32% FY03/11 80% 16 60% 8.4 6.2 -20% -40% 36% 2.3 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.7 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 3 2 -40% 1 -60% -80% Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 FY03/11 FY03/12 FY03/13 FY03/14 FY03/15 FY03/16 0 (JPYbn) Source: Shared Research based on company data www.sharedresearch.jp 34/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Business, market and value chain LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Korea had a global market share of about 35% for new ships (completed) in 2014. CMP’s sales composition for marine paints is 14% for new ships (as of FY03/15). The company had a market share of about 10% for new ships until 2013, but sales measures to capture demand from southern European shipowners were successful. Market share was 20–30% in 2014. Competitors include Jotun, International, and KCC, rounding out the top four companies in the country (including the company). However, shipyards in Korea tend to use domestic KCC products, and CMP is aiming to increase its market share through stronger sales activities to shipowners. Additionally, Korean firms are strong in marine resource development (offshore structures), and if the oil and energy market gains momentum, demand for related anti-fouling materials may increase. Still, as of 2015 demand for offshore structures was soft on relatively low oil prices. Orders received, orders completed, and orders on hand in Japan 160 Orders on hand Order volume Completion volume 8 Completion volume/orders on hand (right axis) 140 7 120 6 100 5 80 4 60 3 40 2 20 1 0 CY94 CY95 CY96 CY97 CY98 CY99 CY00 CY01 CY02 CY03 CY04 CY05 CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 0 Source: The Japanese Shipowners’ Association, Shared Research based on HIS data Korean shipbuilders: orders received (USDbn, Octber 2015) Samsung Heavy Industries Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Hyundai Heavy Industries Hyundai Samho Total Balance of orders 36.6 43.7 38.8 8.8 127.9 Shipping 18.2 23.7 17.8 8.8 68.5 Marine structures 18.4 20.0 21.0 59.4 Source: Shared Research based on company data Key products Anti-fouling paints Anti-fouling paints (to prevent degradation of ship bottoms) have long been a core technology for the company. Anti-fouling paints cut friction with water by acting as a protective coating to prevent shellfish and algae from attaching to ship bottoms. This boosts fuel efficiency. Wave drag resistance, viscous pressure resistance, and friction all effect marine vessel operation. Of these, viscous pressure and friction accounts for 60–80% of total resistance. Smoothing the painted surface can further decrease friction and increase fuel efficiency. As shipping companies look to increase efficiency, the company is focusing on providing high-performance anti-fouling paints that are environmentally compliant. www.sharedresearch.jp 35/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Business, market and value chain LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Anti-fouling paints, friction, and fuel efficiency SEAFLO NEO track record Fuel efficiency Bulk Carrier High-speed ferry Bulk Carrier (10 months post-application) (30 months post-application) Ratio of improvement Ship type Shipowner A 17.1% PCC Shipowner B 14.3% PCC Shipowner C 4.4% RORO Shipowner D 5.0% Container Shipowner E 3.0% Bulk Carrier Source: Shared Research based on company data Anti-fouling paint sale activities focus on track record, plus price and efficiency SEAFLO NEO, which went on sale in 2010, was used on more than 200 vessels in three years. The product has continued to enjoy steady sales growth. In 2013, the company unveiled SEAFLO NEO Z, with further improvements in performance. SEAFLO NEO Z lasts up to 60 months, and has proven to be a smooth, stable paint. SEAFLO NEO Z leads to a 5–8% improvement in fuel efficiency (SEAFLO NEO is 3–5%) when compared with traditional hydrolysable anti-fouling paints, according to the company. The paint also addresses environmental concerns such as reducing carbon dioxide and VOC emissions. It received recognition in 2014 by the Ministry of the Environment and the Nihon Keizai Shimbun for combating global warming. In anti-fouling paints, the company has been focusing on its track record, in addition to price and functionality. The NEO series, including SEAFLO NEO Z, already makes up 50% of mainstay anti-fouling paint sales. The company can use this solid track record when winning new customers. Container paints (13% of FY03/15 sales) Sales of container paints CY94 CY95 CY96 CY97 CY98 CY99 CY00 CY01 CY02 CY03 CY04 CY05 CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 30 Japan China Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US 25 26.0 22.9 20 15.7 15 10 5 0 (JPYbn) 4.3 7.9 6.1 4.3 9.7 12.1 11.0 0.5 4.9 1.3 FY03/00 FY03/02 FY03/04 FY03/06 FY03/08 FY03/10 11.4 11.5 0.7 11.4 8.4 0.7 10.6 FY03/12 7.5 14.0 1.0 1.0 10.2 12.7 FY03/14 Source: Shared Research based on company data Container paint overview Container paints use technology gained while the company was producing marine paints. The company makes and sells www.sharedresearch.jp 36/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Business, market and value chain LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 paints for the exterior, interior, and floors of shipping containers. Most container buyers are in China, causing sales and production (including paints) to be conducted mainly in China. Demand Container demand closely correlated to shipping volume; demand for container paints almost all new The total number of shipping containers has continued to increase in proportion to shipping volume growth. The average lifespan of a container is 12–13 years. The price of a new container is about USD1,500. Old containers are sold as scrap material or converted for other uses. As a result, repair demand is low, so container coating sales hinge on new unit production. Global economic downturn can prompt a big drop in demand for container paint. Marine transport volume and marine container handling volume 800 Marine transport volume growth 80,000 Container transaction volume YoY growth (right axis, `000 TEU) 600 60,000 400 40,000 200 20,000 0 0 -200 -400 (mn tons) -20,000 CY86 CY88 CY90 CY92 CY94 CY96 CY98 CY00 CY02 CY04 CY06 CY08 CY10 CY12 CY14 -40,000 ('000 TE U ) Source: Shared Research based on data from the Shipbuilders’ Association of Japan and the International Association of Ports and Harbors Container ships on key shipping routes continue to get bigger, supporting container paint demand Shipping containers must first be installed in a container terminal, for temporary storage. Then containers are stacked on the appropriate container ship, carried on a container vessel capable of carrying several thousand TEUs along key shipping routes, and transferred to smaller container vessels, which transport them to their final destination. The construction of new container vessels was previously expected to lead to 3x container demand, as it would require one container for the starting point, for transport, and for the destination. But now, due to efficiency gains, construction to new container vessels leads to under 2x container demand. Trends of building vessels with increased capacity have led to vessels carrying more than 10,000 TEUs, and vessels with 20,000-plus TEU capacity are slated for completion in 2017. TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units): TEUs are units used to express a container's carrying capacity, with 1 TEU corresponding to a single 20ft container. Containers are typically 20ft by 40ft; a 40ft container is classified as 2 TEU. Global container ships and composition by TEU capacity TEU nominal 18,000 21,000 13,300 17,999 10,000 13,299 7,500 9,999 5,100 7,499 4,000 5,099 3,000 3,999 2,000 2,999 1,500 1,999 1,000 1,499 500 999 100 499 Total Total after Exp. Scrap/Slip YoY Ships Dec-14 15 81 169 404 501 745 255 649 575 679 766 197 5,036 5,036 Dec-15 36 111 182 473 508 749 265 666 588 698 758 188 5,222 5,171 2.7% Dec-16 48 135 202 503 509 752 271 700 622 710 762 188 5,402 5,247 1.5% Dec-17 81 149 232 505 515 756 278 727 634 724 762 188 5,551 5,296 0.9% Dec-18 92 160 240 509 515 756 284 732 636 724 762 188 5,598 5,243 -1.0% 1000 TEU Dec-14 276 1,147 2,021 3,528 3,087 3,378 884 1,650 982 789 568 63 18,374 18,374 Dec-15 676 1,603 2,154 4,161 3,131 3,399 921 1,686 1,005 810 561 60 20,166 20,000 8.8% Dec-16 907 1,944 2,362 4,435 3,137 3,412 942 1,769 1,065 823 564 60 21,421 21,025 5.1% Dec-17 1,571 2,141 2,708 4,454 3,173 3,428 968 1,839 1,086 839 564 60 22,831 22,186 5.5% Dec-18 1,778 2,296 2,816 4,493 3,173 3,428 990 1,853 1,090 839 564 60 23,380 22,484 1.3% 4years CAGR 59.3% 18.9% 8.6% 6.2% 0.7% 0.4% 2.9% 2.9% 2.6% 1.5% -0.2% -1.2% 6.2% 5.2% Source: Shared Research based on Alphaliner “FleetForecast” (August 2015) www.sharedresearch.jp 37/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Business, market and value chain LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Business structure Sales and customers Key customers for container paint are container manufacturers. CMP also sells to shipowners who own containers, and container leasing companies. Using its existing sales network and local support facilities has enabled it to maintain its market share. Container production centered on China, where CMP has almost 30% market share Almost 95% of global production of containers is centered on China. As such, the company sells almost all of its container paint in China. The worldwide container handling volume is increasing in net terms by 15mn to 20mn units annually. In line with this, container demand is estimated at around 2.5mn to 3mn containers per year, and company forecasts suggest that demand will continue to be around 2.5mn a year, plus or minus 10% (although demand for new containers could increase to more than 3mn, as it did in 2007 and 2014). The company was an early entrant to the Chinese market, and has been able to maintain a market share of almost 30%. CMP is one of the top groups, alongside COSCO Kansai. Demand spiked in FY03/07 and FY03/08, after which sales declined significantly, mainly due to a decline in paint prices that followed a slowdown in the overall container industry. The company's market share also dropped from more than 30% to under 30%. Competitor COSCO Kansai has captured demand from the COSCO Group. Yet CMP captured demand from companies other than COSCO, enabling it to increase market share in FY03/07 and FY03/08. Changes in Chinese marine container handling volume and sales of the company’s container paints 35,000 Sales of container paints Chinese container transaction volume YoY growth (right axis; '000 TEU) 25,000 30,000 20,000 25,000 15,000 20,000 10,000 15,000 5,000 10,000 0 5,000 -5,000 0 FY03/00 CY99 FY03/04 CY03 FY03/02 CY01 FY03/06 CY05 FY03/08 CY07 FY03/10 CY09 FY03/12 CY11 FY03/14 CY13 -10,000 ('000 TE U ) Source: Shared Research based on company data, the Japan Shipbuilders’ Association, and IAPH Chinese container paint market and the company’s market share 4,000 40% Other companies CMP CMP market share (right axis) 3,000 30% 2,000 20% 1,000 10% ('000 TE U ) 0 CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012 CY2013 CY2014 0% Source: Shared Research based on company data www.sharedresearch.jp 38/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Business, market and value chain LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Industrial paints (12% of FY03/15 sales) Sales of industrial paints Japan 16 14 China 12.3 12 Korea 12.5 12.5 Southeast Asia 12.9 Europe/US 14.1 13.2 14.8 13.4 13.7 10.8 10.7 11.2 10 2.6 8 1.6 10.5 6 4 6.7 2 0 (JPYbn) FY03/00 FY03/02 FY03/04 FY03/06 FY03/08 FY03/10 12.4 12.7 4.1 4.5 11.0 2.7 3.3 1.8 1.6 5.8 6.0 1.6 1.9 6.6 FY03/12 5.8 FY03/14 Source: Shared Research based on company data Summary Resources concentrated in anti-corrosion and wooden materials during the 1990s; high domestic market share Industrial paints use the company’s experience gained in marine paints. In the 1990s CMP focused on heavy anti-corrosion (anti-rust) and wooden construction materials. By region, sales in Southeast Asia were JPY4.5bn in FY03/15. Domestically, construction sales are 2x heavy anti-corrosion sales. In construction, products for wooden floors comprise about half of sales. For heavy anti-corrosion, products for manufacturing plants account for one third of sales, and anti-fouling paint for electricity generation about one quarter. CMP has been able to strengthen its technological ability through focusing on certain businesses. Its domestic share of anti-fouling paint for electricity generation is almost two thirds of the overall market; in wooden flooring it holds over half. Sales of industrial paints, domestic sales and domestic market share for key products FY03/15 sales by region 0.3bn Domestic sales breakdown Anti-fouling paints for electric power generation For wooden flooring 2% 5.8bn 46% 4.5bn 35% 0.2bn 1% Japan Korea Europe/US 1/3 2/3 70% 1.9bn 16% China Southeast Asia more than 50% Building material Heavy anti-corrosion CMP Others CMP Others Source: Shared Research based on company data Figures are approximate Demand and business Domestic demand impacted by housing starts; overseas business mainly comprises heavy anti-corrosion paints Construction paints comprise about 2/3 of the company’s domestic industrial paint sales, making it particularly vulnerable to conditions in housing starts. Overseas sales mainly comprise heavy anti-corrosion paints. By region, sales to Southeast Asia (mainly Thailand) comprise a majority of sales. In Thailand, key users are manufacturing plants (mostly petrochemical plants) and public infrastructure like bridges. TOA, a local partner company of CMP’S consolidated subsidiary TOA-CHUGOKU PAINTS CO., LTD. (49% stake), handles new local projects. Many of the projects are ODA (Official Development Assistance) projects from Japan. In March 2013 CMP used its www.sharedresearch.jp 39/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Business, market and value chain LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 high-durability paint Fluorex on Nhat Tan Bridge (Vietnam-Japan Friendship Bridge), constructed in Hanoi as an ODA project. CMP’s partners can help it comply with ODA program requirements, such as finding local manufacturers. Domestic sales and new housing starts 1,665 1,651 1,495 20 Domestic indusrial paints (right axis) New housing starts floor area 1,934 25 1,429 1,420 1,550 1,405 1,523 1,471 1,628 1,594 1,616 1,679 1,706 1,560 1,373 2,000 1,539 1,365 1,363 1,414 1,337 1,600 15 1,200 10 800 5 0 400 17.8 19.3 19.6 17.2 Q1 FY03/11 (mn sqm) 18.5 21.0 18.7 17.6 Q1 FY03/12 19.4 Q1 FY03/13 20.4 21.0 18.6 21.7 23.1 23.9 18.7 Q1 FY03/14 18.8 Q1 FY03/15 18.9 19.3 17.0 19.6 Q1 FY03/16 19.5 0 (JPYmn) Source: Shared Research based on company data Measures for new markets In industrial paints, the company wants to expand into new fields using its core technologies. Heavy anti-corrosion paint technologies include anti-corrosion paint BIOCLEAN intended for offshore structures and wind power generation, and CONTECT, which can prevent the peeling of concrete in humid conditions. Apart from the heavy anti-corrosion sector, CMP is also seeking to enter high function paints. For example, PHOLUCID—a hard coating material for use in automotive headlight covers—uses the company’s core technologies in UV curable paints for woodwork, and applies them to plastics. www.sharedresearch.jp 40/52 R Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Chugoku Marine Paints > Business, market and value chain LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Strengths and weaknesses Strengths ◤ 100 years’ experience in core technologies: After being founded in 1917, the company focused on marine paints as its core technology, beginning sales to the Japan’s Navy before the WWII, and expanding to the civil shipbuilding market domestically as well as to China and Korea after the war. It has been successful in maintaining a leading market share. Shared Research views this success as a result of CMP’s focus on technology and leveraging the technology to quickly respond to evolving market needs such as demand for environmentally compliant and fuel efficient paints. Capitalizing on its core technology, the company has expanded to include container paints and industrial paints, and is now searching for a profitable niche in industrial paints. ◤ Global network: Shipbuilding is concentrated in Japan, China, and Korea, while repairs are centered in Southeast Asia. The majority of shipowners are located in Europe and the Americas. As such, a global network in each major area of the world is important to success in marine paints. CMP’s model is “local production for local consumption”—the company was early to expand overseas through joint ventures and partnerships, allowing it to build a global production, storage, and distribution network. While the number of partners still lags that of its western rivals, CMP’s coatings are sought by shipowners, and its paints have been placed on standard lists of shipyards. This allowed the company to expand and maintain a high market share. ◤ Growing brand recognition: Both sales capabilities and a strong brand are prerequisite to expand market share, with functionality, cost, and track record being the key to successful customer acquisition. The company has been developing fuel efficient and environmentally compliant products since 2010. During FY03/15, about 1/2 of CMP’s marine paint sales were from new products introduced from 2010 or later, and its brand recognition has been rising. Shared Research believes that if the company could further lower its cost base, it would be able to increase its market share in repairs, particularly in anti-fouling paints. Weaknesses ◤ Need to capture repair demand in anti-fouling paints to stabilize earnings: CMP leads the market in the marine paints industry for new ships, at almost 30%. However, its market share in repairs is lower, at about 20%. For the industry overall, the market for new ships vs. repairs is roughly 2:3. The repair market is less influenced by the vagaries of the industry cycle compared to the new ship market. Gaining ground in the market for repairs would lead to increased earnings stability. ◤ Limited experience outside of the marine paints domain: The company targets a sales mix of 60% marine paints, 20% container paints, and 20% industrial paints. As of FY03/15, these figures were 75%, 13%, and 12%, respectively. Although the company has introduced new products using its existing core technology, such as anti-peeling paints for concrete, and hard coatings for automobile headlights, their contributions to earnings as of FY03/16 was limited. In Shared Research’s view, these new areas are requiring time to accumulate technologies and marketing experience, and to build sales and customer networks. ◤ Late entry into offshore structures leading to opportunity losses: Although CMP has a market share of between 20% and 30% in marine paints, its share in offshore structures (marine resource development) is low despite a substantial addressable market. International Paint, a major rival, has had a head start in this area, while CMP is yet to gain any meaningful traction. In the Korean shipbuilding industry, where the market is concentrated, total orders outstanding for the top three companies as of October 2015 stood at USD127.9bn, of which 46% (USD59.4bn) was for offshore structures. CMP, on the other hand, had only one order from a Japanese company, highlighting its late start. www.sharedresearch.jp 41/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Financial statements LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Financial statements Income statement Income statement FY03/05 FY03/06 FY03/07 FY03/08 FY03/09 FY03/10 FY03/11 FY03/12 FY03/13 FY03/14 (JPYmn) Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Sales 63,389 67,846 88,196 104,798 103,622 86,810 96,595 93,560 83,656 90,901 YoY 13.7% 7.0% 30.0% 18.8% -1.1% -16.2% 11.3% -3.1% -10.6% 8.7% Gross profit 20,803 19,932 25,654 28,736 29,072 29,976 28,844 24,855 22,079 25,227 GPM 32.8% 29.4% 29.1% 27.4% 28.1% 34.5% 29.9% 26.6% 26.4% 27.8% SG&A expenses 16,081 16,300 18,397 20,604 20,642 19,981 20,020 19,381 17,363 21,168 Personnel 5,905 6,134 6,411 6,875 6,939 6,915 6,747 6,627 6,501 7,177 Transportation 2,826 2,927 3,369 3,826 3,779 3,265 3,665 3,477 3,071 3,389 Sales commission 1,877 2,174 2,009 2,162 2,401 2,215 1,312 1,820 Provision of allowance for doubtful accounts 91 16 133 144 117 393 125 59 1,560 Other 7,260 7,223 6,607 7,585 7,798 7,246 7,207 6,937 6,420 7,222 YoY 9.1% 1.4% 12.9% 12.0% 0.2% -3.2% 0.2% -3.2% -10.4% 21.9% SG&A / sales 25.4% 24.0% 20.9% 19.7% 19.9% 23.0% 20.7% 20.7% 20.8% 23.3% Transportation/sales 4.5% 4.3% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% Sales commission/marine paints sales 3.7% 3.4% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% 3.1% 2.1% 2.7% Operating profit 4,721 3,632 7,257 8,132 8,429 9,995 8,823 5,474 4,715 4,058 YoY 5.5% -23.1% 99.8% 12.1% 3.7% 18.6% -11.7% -38.0% -13.9% -13.9% OPM 7.4% 5.4% 8.2% 7.8% 8.1% 11.5% 9.1% 5.9% 5.6% 4.5% OP before depreciation & amortization of goo 5,986 4,859 8,482 9,587 10,006 11,621 10,524 7,033 6,165 5,647 YoY 4.8% -18.8% 74.6% 13.0% 4.4% 16.1% -9.4% -33.2% -12.3% -8.4% OPM 9.4% 7.2% 9.6% 9.1% 9.7% 13.4% 10.9% 7.5% 7.4% 6.2% Non-operating profit 5 68 -127 -690 -530 272 291 567 404 1,001 Financial income -164 -272 -480 -888 -521 -173 -29 -129 -21 53 Gains on foreign exchange 44 287 81 -162 -431 -30 -68 343 94 504 Royalities received 42 51 72 110 116 73 76 74 92 101 Technological training fee 87 109 124 156 124 140 137 117 114 93 Other non-operating profit -4 -107 76 94 182 262 175 162 125 250 Recurring profit 4,726 3,700 7,130 7,442 7,899 10,268 9,114 6,040 5,119 5,058 YoY 10.1% -21.7% 92.7% 4.4% 6.1% 30.0% -11.2% -33.7% -15.2% -1.2% RPM 7.5% 5.5% 8.1% 7.1% 7.6% 11.8% 9.4% 6.5% 6.1% 5.6% Extraordinary profit 56 644 -16 593 -153 -129 -87 -11 -57 832 Income taxes -1,826 -1,494 -1,834 -2,331 -1,997 -3,814 -2,706 -2,565 -1,673 -2,050 Implied tax rate 38.2% 34.4% 25.8% 29.0% 25.8% 37.6% 30.0% 42.5% 33.1% 34.8% Minority interests -252 -217 -426 -586 -717 -901 -619 -396 -410 -571 Net income 2,704 2,633 4,853 5,117 5,031 5,422 5,701 3,067 2,978 3,269 YoY 6.5% -2.6% 84.3% 5.4% -1.7% 7.8% 5.1% -46.2% -2.9% 9.8% Net margin 4.3% 3.9% 5.5% 4.9% 4.9% 6.2% 5.9% 3.3% 3.6% 3.6% Total capex 1,004 2,050 2,671 2,602 3,044 2,062 1,505 1,188 1,382 1,340 Depreciation 1,265 1,226 1,228 1,458 1,555 1,605 1,680 1,535 1,426 1,562 Amortization of goodwill -0 -0 -3 -3 22 21 21 24 24 27 R&D expenses 1,382 1,386 1,496 1,605 1,800 1,939 1,908 1,902 1,789 1,714 Performance by segment (JPYmn) Sales China Japan Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US Cons. Est. 17.4% 29,424 27.6% 21,982 7,746 4,021 2,594 129 7,492 3.8% 20.6% 3.8% 3.3% 7,442 83.4% 7.0% 9,143 61.9% 8.6% 916 201 262 84 116 253 8,359 65.3% 7.8% -460 -2,342 29.7% -808 4,748 45.2% 4.4% 1,163 1,671 30 1,849 7.7% 9,000 20.9% 7.8% 800 800 9,800 17.2% 8.5% 106,737 115,000 6,000 26.4% 5.2% - FY03/05 FY03/06 FY03/07 FY03/08 FY03/09 FY03/10 FY03/11 FY03/12 FY03/13 FY03/14 FY03/15 FY03/16 Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Est. 63,389 67,846 88,196 104,798 103,622 86,810 96,595 93,560 83,656 90,901 106,737 115,000 33,172 34,475 35,333 39,622 43,579 41,351 40,821 37,529 34,182 35,008 36,532 13,686 16,747 30,804 38,145 31,990 20,360 31,229 31,412 27,640 26,063 34,356 10,377 8,543 9,097 6,202 8,472 11,575 6,303 7,394 7,658 8,238 10,548 11,816 6,890 6,442 9,118 11,154 10,838 8,417 8,607 7,862 7,391 10,808 12,456 - China Japan Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US 38,913 14,112 9,723 641 13.7% 4.2% 34.1% 20.9% 42,933 13,240 10,992 681 7.0% 3.9% 22.4% -6.5% 51,238 13,401 22,892 663 30.0% 2.5% 83.9% 41.5% 63,350 14,831 26,026 590 18.8% 12.1% 23.8% 22.3% Marine coatings Industrial coatings Container coatings Operating profit China Japan Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US Elimination OPM China Japan Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US 4,721 2,789 -269 7.4% 8.4% - 10.3% -6.2% 13.1% 3,632 2,054 148 5.4% 6.0% - 19.3% 1.2% 108.3% 7,257 1,381 700 8.2% 3.9% - 23.6% 10.7% 13.7% 8,132 1,990 720 7.8% 5.0% - YoY Marine coatings Industrial coatings Container coatings Others FY03/15 FY03/16 73,730 74,270 13,661 10,806 15,720 1,335 509 398 -1.1% -16.2% 10.0% -5.1% -16.1% -36.4% -2.8% -22.3% 72,933 11,199 12,084 379 11.3% -1.3% 53.4% -17.7% 17.3% 2.3% 71,236 63,876 10,454 10,993 11,504 8,419 365 366 -3.1% -10.6% -8.1% -8.9% 0.6% -12.0% 6.5% -31.8% 3.6% 7.6% -8.7% -6.0% 66,722 79,750 12,445 12,685 11,416 13,972 316 328 8.7% 17.4% 2.4% 4.4% -5.7% 31.8% 36.6% 36.6% 28.0% 12.0% 46.2% 15.2% 16.4% -7.9% -39.6% 8,429 2,992 697 8.1% 6.9% - -1.8% 3.6% 805.2% 8,823 3,690 2,466 624 988 -1,125 2,179 9.1% 9.0% 7.9% 7.3% 13.4% -13.1% -2.3% -6.7% -4.8% 5,474 2,458 1,652 222 811 -1,130 1,460 5.9% 6.5% 5.3% 2.4% 10.6% -14.4% 4.5% 13.2% 35.6% 4,058 1,966 -620 375 1,477 -542 1,402 4.5% 5.6% -2.4% 4.4% 14.0% -5.0% 0.7% -20.9% -91.5% 9,995 5,104 1,439 1,673 982 -864 1,660 11.5% 12.3% 7.1% 16.1% 15.6% -10.3% -10.3% 5.2% -26.8% 4,715 2,214 1,090 -22 978 -902 1,358 5.6% 6.5% 3.9% -0.4% 11.9% -12.2% 19.5% 1.9% 22.4% 7,442 1,598 2,345 151 1,984 -598 1,962 7.0% 4.4% 6.8% 1.3% 16.8% -4.8% 7.7% - 9,000 7.8% - Source: Shared Research based on company data www.sharedresearch.jp 42/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Financial statements LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Effects of market environment changes Until FY03/13, for the parent company, material costs accounted for almost 90% of CoGS. Owing to the impact of the naphtha market, market prices overseas became increasingly volatile, and domestically forex played a role as well. Resin takes up a large share of costs by value and has a high processing cost—which allows CMP to add value—meaning that the naphtha market has an indirect impact, although delayed. This trend becomes even stronger for materials that use special resins like anti-fouling paints. CoGS breakdown for the parent 100% 6% 10% 8% 10% 80% 55.4% 6% 10% 58.8% 57.0% 6% 9% 6% 8% 6% 8% 6% 9% 5% 7% 6% 8% 5% 7% 56.3% 58.1% 54.9% 60% 85% 84% 82% 40% 86% 86% 85% 48.9% 20% 86% 49.6% 88% 88% 86% 5% 7% 54.3% 88% FY03/99 FY03/03 FY03/01 Material expenses 55% 53.6% 51.6% 87% 86% 60% 5% 7% 6% 7% 52.4% 87% 87% 50% 50.4% 48.0% 47.9% 0% 6% 7% 6% 7% FY03/05 Personnel expenses FY03/07 Expenses FY03/09 FY03/11 FY03/13 45% Material expenses/product sales (right axis) Source: Shared Research based on company data Naphtha CIF prices (thousand yen/KL) and GPM 0 Naphtha price 10 38% GPM (right axis) 36% 20 34% 30 32% 40 30% 50 28% 60 26% 70 24% 80 22% 90 (JPY'000/KL) Q1 FY03/04 Q1 FY03/05 Q1 FY03/06 Q1 FY03/07 Q1 FY03/08 Q1 FY03/09 Q1 FY03/10 Q1 FY03/11 Q1 FY03/12 Q1 FY03/13 Q1 FY03/14 Q1 FY03/15 20% Q1 FY03/16 Source: Shared Research based on company data Naphtha CIF prices (thousand yen/KL) and domestic anti-fouling paint unit prices (yen/KG) 0 Naphtha price 10 900 Average price of anti-fouling paints 850 20 800 30 750 40 700 50 650 60 600 70 550 80 500 90 Q1 FY03/04 (JPY'000/KL) Q1 FY03/05 Q1 FY03/06 Q1 FY03/07 Q1 FY03/08 Q1 FY03/09 Q1 FY03/10 Q1 FY03/11 Q1 FY03/12 Q1 FY03/13 Q1 FY03/14 Q1 FY03/15 Q1 FY03/16 450 (JPY/KG) Source: Shared Research based on company data Exchange rates CMP has created a world-wide network for both manufacturing and sales. The company aims for localized production and consumption. It does not experience effects from exchange rates on a sales or operating profit level like a normal exporting company. These effects are typically felt from conversion rates when forming a new partnership. Raw material prices are affected but the impact on the company is not significant. Forex gains and losses in non-operating profit mainly comprise both settlement and valuation differences. Note that the impact of Chinese subsidiaries when they borrow dollars is significant. www.sharedresearch.jp 43/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Financial statements LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Exchange rate assumptions (mid-year and year-end) 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 Q1 FY03/07 JPY/USD (mid-year average) JPY/USD (year end) JPY/EUR (mid-year average) JPY/EUR (year end) JPY/RMB (mid-year average) JPY/RMB (year end) JPY/100KRW (mid-year average) JPY/100KRW (year end) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 Q1 FY03/09 Q1 FY03/11 Q1 FY03/13 6 Q1 FY03/15 Q1 FY03/07 Q1 FY03/09 Q1 FY03/11 Q1 FY03/13 Q1 FY03/15 Source: Shared Research based on company data The following describe elements of the income statement unique to CMP. SG&A expenses The main components of SG&A expenses are semi-fixed costs like personnel expenses, and variable costs like transportation expenses and sales commissions. A big overseas footprint means exchange rates have a big impact. Royalties received—non-operating profit Licensees of its technology are part of its global supply network. The following table shows the major overseas partnerships. From partners, CMP gets an initial royalty plus a percentage of sales. Technological training fee—non-operating profit After application the paint becomes like a film coating and starts to exhibit its properties. The company receives technological training fees when aiding in the process. As the amount of work increases as the number of people associated with a project increases, this may impact SG&A expenses. Tax rate Differences with statutory tax rate Statutory tax rate Effective tax rate Difference Difference in tax rate of overseas subsidiaries Items that are never included in income such as international fees Items that are never included in gains such as dividend income Pending dividends Accrued directors' bonuses Decline from adoption of overseas tax deductions Decline from deductions from research and testing fees Change in valuation allowance related to deferred tax assets Income tax from previous years Other FY03/05 FY03/06 FY03/07 FY03/08 FY03/09 FY03/10 FY03/11 FY03/12 FY03/13 FY03/14 FY03/15 40.5% 40.5% 40.5% 40.5% 40.5% 40.5% 40.5% 40.5% 37.8% 37.8% 35.4% 38.2% 34.4% 25.8% 29.0% 25.8% 37.6% 30.0% 42.5% 33.1% 34.8% 29.7% -2.3% -6.1% -14.7% -11.5% -14.7% -2.9% -10.5% 2.0% -4.7% -3.0% -5.7% -19.8% -16.3% -27.0% -26.9% -14.9% -10.5% -12.3% -13.1% -12.9% -14.9% -11.9% 1.8% 1.7% 3.4% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3% 5.2% 4.2% 4.5% 4.1% 3.4% -1.5% -2.4% -1.8% -1.5% -1.7% -4.2% -5.2% -6.6% -5.6% -3.3% -4.8% 16.3% 17.8% 14.6% 20.4% 10.2% 8.4% 12.9% 16.5% 13.2% 15.1% 9.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% -2.6% -4.2% -1.9% -2.1% -1.1% -5.2% -1.3% -1.4% -1.9% -0.7% -2.9% -1.4% -1.8% -1.7% -1.5% -1.7% -2.5% -2.1% -2.3% -2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% -2.5% 1.1% 0.7% -0.1% 0.9% 2.2% 2.2% 7.2% 0.3% -1.9% 1.3% -1.4% 1.0% 2.5% -5.6% -3.6% -0.8% -0.9% -0.8% Source: Shared Research based on company data Income from equity-method affiliates Income from equity-method affiliates is heavily influenced by the performance of consolidated subsidiaries in Thailand (49.0% stake; mainly industrial paints) and Korea (59.5% stake; mainly marine paints). Performance of the Shanghai subsidiary (92% stake) is also a factor, as container paints are volatile and almost entirely target the Chinese market. All joint ventures are local companies. Geographic segment profits In international shipping, shipowners and shipyards are unevenly distributed geographically. In response, CMP has established a group to unify its global network and win orders. Although localized production and consumption is a core policy for CMP, raw materials may be sourced from and operating expenses concentrated in certain regions. This can www.sharedresearch.jp 44/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Financial statements LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 cause geographic segment profits to show up as losses. Breakdown of sales Income by segment (JPYmn) Sales YoY Marine coatings Japan China Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US YoY Japan China Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US Industrial coatings Japan China Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US YoY Japan China Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US Container coatings Japan China Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US YoY Japan China Korea Southeast Asia Europe/US FY03/05 FY03/06 FY03/07 FY03/08 FY03/09 FY03/10 FY03/11 FY03/12 FY03/13 FY03/14 FY03/15 FY03/16 Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Est. 63,389 67,846 88,196 104,798 103,622 86,810 96,595 93,560 83,656 90,901 106,737 115,000 13.7% 7.0% 30.0% 18.8% -1.1% -16.2% 11.3% -3.1% -10.6% 8.7% 17.4% 7.7% 38,913 42,933 51,238 63,350 73,730 74,270 72,933 71,236 63,876 66,722 79,750 33,696 31,359 27,821 28,097 30,376 18,214 19,007 18,508 14,297 19,710 8,535 9,066 6,176 8,423 11,416 4,214 4,225 4,245 5,479 6,394 8,272 7,577 7,124 10,425 11,852 - 10.3% 19.3% 23.6% 16.4% 0.7% -1.8% -2.3% -10.3% 4.5% 19.5% -6.9% -11.3% 1.0% 8.1% 4.4% -2.6% -22.8% 37.9% 6.2% -31.9% 36.4% 35.5% 0.3% 0.5% 29.1% 16.7% -8.4% -6.0% 46.3% 13.7% 14,112 13,240 13,401 14,831 13,661 10,806 11,199 10,454 10,993 12,445 12,685 6,745 5,804 5,995 6,595 5,827 1,640 1,773 1,585 1,582 1,948 8 31 25 49 158 2,631 2,731 3,259 4,053 4,451 173 114 127 165 299 -6.2% 1.2% 10.7% -7.9% -20.9% 3.6% -6.7% 5.2% 13.2% 1.9% - -14.0% 3.3% 10.0% -11.6% 8.1% -10.6% -0.2% 23.1% - 287.5% -19.4% 96.0% 222.4% 3.8% 19.3% 24.4% 9.8% - -34.1% 11.4% 29.9% 81.2% 9,723 10,992 22,892 26,026 15,720 1,335 12,084 11,504 8,419 11,416 13,972 11,373 10,631 7,547 10,183 12,697 548 702 733 1,016 970 161 170 139 216 304 - 13.1% 108.3% 13.7% -39.6% -91.5% 805.2% -4.8% -26.8% 35.6% 22.4% -6.5% -29.0% 34.9% 24.7% 28.1% 4.4% 38.6% -4.5% 5.6% -18.2% 55.4% 40.7% - Source: Shared Research based on company data www.sharedresearch.jp 45/52 R Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Chugoku Marine Paints > Financial statements LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Balance sheet Balance sheet FY03/04 FY03/05 FY03/06 FY03/07 FY03/08 FY03/09 FY03/10 FY03/11 FY03/12 FY03/13 FY03/14 FY03/15 (JPYmn) Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Current assets 36,813 45,143 48,567 64,992 63,567 60,629 64,068 70,070 70,233 74,315 83,118 95,726 Cash and equivalents 6,884 7,943 9,693 8,132 7,975 8,625 14,767 12,412 17,615 22,011 28,367 30,682 Accounts receivable 19,290 23,933 24,431 36,198 36,538 34,891 35,302 41,758 37,694 36,944 38,677 47,119 Inventory assets 9,359 11,910 13,116 18,258 17,719 16,002 12,829 14,156 13,751 14,360 15,129 17,626 Deferred tax assets 694 724 730 861 735 841 1,024 826 703 777 1,169 1,010 Allowance for doubtful accounts -491 -485 -505 -630 -700 -645 -952 -789 -830 -905 -2,701 -2,130 Others 1,077 1,118 1,102 2,173 1,300 915 1,098 1,707 1,300 1,128 2,477 1,419 Tangible fixed assets 23,454 23,205 24,541 26,038 25,571 23,837 24,394 23,484 23,026 23,782 25,610 25,915 Intangible assets 216 255 225 427 450 843 841 878 728 887 1,296 1,501 Investments and other assets 7,950 8,565 10,382 10,600 8,961 6,465 7,042 5,872 5,862 7,255 8,994 11,944 Investment securities 6,801 7,279 8,981 9,101 7,290 4,958 5,823 4,708 4,709 6,382 8,133 10,826 Allowance for doubtful accounts -414 -459 -88 -70 -41 -5 -50 -46 -42 -45 -54 -926 Others 1,563 1,745 1,489 1,569 1,712 1,512 1,269 1,210 1,195 918 915 2,044 Fixed assets 31,620 32,025 35,149 37,065 34,983 31,146 32,278 30,235 29,617 31,925 35,901 39,361 Total assets 68,433 77,168 83,716 102,058 98,550 91,776 96,346 100,305 99,850 106,240 119,019 135,087 Current liabilities 33,989 40,963 39,827 52,022 49,722 44,351 44,124 45,145 42,423 41,879 43,178 50,201 Accounts payable 8,671 11,510 11,374 16,873 15,866 13,193 12,976 17,368 12,535 13,370 14,664 19,420 Short-term debt 20,340 21,983 22,453 27,875 25,885 24,939 20,659 19,529 23,436 21,933 20,862 19,320 Current portion of debt 100 1,630 630 130 630 149 1,819 1,147 72 65 48 2,350 Accounts payable - other 3,274 3,544 4,076 5,258 5,174 4,369 4,948 5,031 4,808 4,893 5,415 6,641 Income taxes payable 766 1,495 644 1,089 1,479 785 2,893 1,225 847 816 1,435 1,438 Other current liabilities 838 801 650 797 688 916 829 845 725 802 754 1,032 Noncurrent liabilities 6,627 5,533 9,041 9,194 7,723 7,410 5,683 6,285 7,012 7,661 8,508 6,660 Long-term debt 2,725 1,245 2,815 3,185 2,555 3,001 1,182 1,920 2,847 3,314 3,373 1,086 Asset retirement obligations 2,226 2,228 3,038 3,040 3,044 3,026 3,026 3,026 2,644 2,615 2,615 2,370 Deferred tax liabilities 604 666 709 745 691 659 596 604 779 951 1,153 1,082 Others 1,072 1,393 2,479 2,224 1,433 724 879 735 742 781 1,367 2,122 Total liabilities 40,616 46,495 48,868 61,217 57,445 51,762 49,808 51,431 49,436 49,541 51,686 56,861 Net assets 27,817 30,673 34,847 40,840 41,105 40,013 46,538 48,874 50,414 56,699 67,332 78,225 Shareholders' equity 24,575 26,703 28,747 33,063 37,020 40,433 44,954 51,927 49,756 53,097 55,501 59,296 Issued capital 11,626 11,626 11,626 11,626 11,626 11,626 11,626 11,626 11,626 11,626 11,626 11,626 Reserves 7,784 7,785 7,785 7,785 7,785 7,783 7,783 7,783 7,783 7,783 7,783 7,783 Retained earnings 5,206 7,355 9,418 13,753 17,764 21,210 25,739 30,547 32,721 34,867 37,276 41,079 Treasury stock -41 -63 -81 -101 -156 -187 -194 -201 -204 -1,179 -1,183 -1,192 Unrealized gains 2,068 2,623 4,394 5,511 1,798 -2,581 -1,466 -4,011 -4,619 -277 6,985 13,184 Unrealized gains on investment securities 1,062 1,546 2,717 2,730 1,497 -15 535 47 -39 884 2,124 4,062 Foreign currency translation adjustment -87 83 Subscription rights to new shares Equity-method affiliates 1,174 1,347 1,706 2,265 2,286 2,161 3,049 3,129 3,106 3,878 4,844 5,745 Total capital and liabilities 68,433 77,168 83,716 102,058 98,550 91,776 96,346 100,305 99,850 106,240 119,019 135,087 Total capex 1,170 1,004 2,050 2,671 2,602 3,044 2,062 1,505 1,188 1,382 1,340 1,163 Depreciation 1,229 1,265 1,226 1,228 1,458 1,555 1,605 1,680 1,535 1,426 1,562 1,671 Amortization of goodwill 4 -0 -0 -3 -3 22 21 21 24 24 27 30 Working capital 19,978 24,333 26,172 37,583 38,391 37,700 35,155 38,546 38,910 37,934 39,142 45,325 Interest-bearing debt 23,165 24,858 25,898 31,190 29,070 28,089 23,660 22,596 26,355 25,312 24,283 22,756 Net cash -16,282 -16,915 -16,206 -23,058 -21,095 -19,464 -8,893 -10,184 -8,740 -3,301 4,084 7,926 Accounts receivable turnover 63.13 124.44 130.09 125.46 126.67 125.80 147.57 145.59 154.98 162.83 151.82 146.69 Inventories turnover 46.74 91.15 95.32 91.55 86.32 82.55 92.58 72.69 74.13 83.32 81.95 77.32 Payables turnover 43.30 86.48 87.16 82.43 78.55 71.14 84.03 81.74 79.43 76.78 77.90 80.46 Working capital efficiency 66.57 129.10 138.25 134.58 134.43 137.21 156.11 136.54 149.68 169.36 155.87 143.56 Current ratio 108% 110% 122% 125% 128% 137% 145% 155% 166% 177% 193% 191% Fixed ratio 118.7% 109.2% 106.1% 96.1% 90.1% 82.3% 74.2% 66.1% 62.6% 60.4% 57.5% 54.3% Equity ratio 38.9% 38.0% 39.6% 37.8% 39.4% 41.2% 45.1% 45.6% 47.4% 49.7% 52.5% 53.7% Source: Shared Research based on company data Intangible assets The increase in FY03/14 relates to land use rights from expanding the Shanghai plant. Currency rates explain fluctuations thereafter. Tangible fixed assets Land was revalued at end March 2000. The difference in value was recorded in net assets—JPY3.7bn at end FY03/15. Investments and other assets FY03/15’s increase in the “others” item is from bankruptcy rehabilitation claims. Allowance for doubtful accounts Amid the 2008 global financial crisis, China’s shipbuilding industry suffered and payment periods lengthened. Increases from FY03/14 onwards relate to sales in China and Korea. www.sharedresearch.jp 46/52 R Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Chugoku Marine Paints > Financial statements LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Accounts payable and accrued expenses—current liabilities Accounts payable for sales commissions are recorded in this item. Unpaid portions are recorded according to construction progress. The difference between accounts payable and accrued expenses lies in whether or not the liability has been determined. We note that the government’s recognition of this can be different. Guaranteed obligations In contingent liabilities, guaranteed obligations for Mitsubishi Corporation Chemical (JPY869mn at end FY03/15) are listed, to lower the risk of customers defaulting. www.sharedresearch.jp 47/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Financial statements LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Cash flow statement Cash flow statement (JPYmn) Operating cash flow Income before income taxes Depreciation Amortization of goodwill Change in provisions for points Change in accounts receivable Change in inventory assets Change in accounts payable Change in accrued consumption tax Others Subtotal Interest and dividends income received, paid Security deposits paid, collected Income taxes paid Operating cash flow FY03/04 FY03/05 FY03/06 FY03/07 FY03/08 FY03/09 FY03/10 FY03/11 FY03/12 FY03/13 FY03/14 FY03/15 Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. 3,248 1,229 4 113 -333 -101 -78 4,783 1,265 -0 104 -3,497 -2,518 2,751 4,344 1,226 -0 -5 1,615 -387 -931 7,115 1,228 -3 24 -10,319 -4,575 4,873 8,035 1,458 -3 -107 -4,599 -975 297 7,746 1,555 22 -62 -3,082 -310 111 10,138 1,605 21 53 2,825 3,501 -655 9,027 1,680 21 -64 -8,683 -2,183 5,157 6,029 1,535 24 74 3,403 -11 -4,519 5,062 1,426 24 46 4,038 762 -356 5,890 1,562 27 -28 3,338 1,265 -335 7,899 1,671 30 -19 -6,351 -1,349 3,574 -462 3,619 142 -314 -543 2,905 -717 2,171 151 -321 -1,149 852 -685 5,176 200 -502 -2,221 2,653 -203 -1,860 246 -743 -1,343 -3,702 2,380 6,486 330 -1,153 -1,727 4,846 1,275 7,255 254 -783 -2,652 4,074 -1,035 16,453 178 -359 -1,982 14,290 750 5,705 238 -272 -4,418 1,252 -178 6,357 252 -366 -2,566 3,676 -383 10,619 344 -374 -1,870 8,719 -192 11,527 415 -371 -1,740 10,084 1,021 6,476 494 -288 -2,404 4,355 -12 581 -975 27 2 -376 802 286 -1,190 13 38 -51 -9 1,103 -2,045 75 21 -856 -328 -97 -2,630 46 55 -2,954 228 -100 -2,572 52 -229 -2,621 71 -16 -3,009 1,647 -293 -34 -1,634 -561 -109 -2,176 43 -2 -2,805 -400 -249 209 -1,341 8 5 -1,768 -1,050 183 -147 -1,139 10 -11 -2,154 -1,796 51 -337 -1,400 92 -307 73 -3,624 -525 -779 807 -1,924 20 37 -2,364 -61 744 -49 -1,247 30 -14 -597 Financial cash flow Change in short term debt 375 Change in long term debt -931 Purchase of treasury stock -13 Income from the retirement of treasury stock Cash dividends paid -448 Cash dividends paid to minority shareholders -73 Proceeds from share issuance to minority shareholde Others -4 Financial cash flow -1,094 1,686 50 -23 1 -517 -131 -3 1,063 -448 570 -19 1 -517 -113 76 -4 -454 5,101 -130 -20 0 -517 -131 71 -6 4,368 41 -130 -55 0 -1,099 -295 127 -8 -1,419 423 -33 -41 8 -893 -213 77 -39 -711 -4,503 -149 -7 0 -892 -262 76 -53 -5,790 -471 67 -6 -893 -312 -56 -1,671 4,419 -147 -3 0 -893 -229 -53 3,094 -2,694 424 -975 0 -884 -275 -51 -4,455 -3,150 -50 -4 -860 -427 94 -23 -4,420 -2,536 -58 -8 -861 -413 -24 -3,900 Effect of exchange rate on cash and cash equivalents Change in cash and cash equivalents Cash and cash equivalents (year-start) Cash and cash equivalents (year-end) -43 1,821 6,088 7,910 393 1,737 7,910 9,647 393 -1,894 9,647 7,752 -710 95 7,752 7,858 -994 733 7,858 8,591 260 5,955 8,591 14,547 -535 -2,721 14,547 11,825 -267 4,349 11,825 16,174 1,095 1,734 16,174 17,908 1,828 5,128 17,908 23,037 1,503 1,362 23,037 24,400 Investment cash flow Change in time deposits Change in securities Change in investment securities Acquisition of fixed assets Proceeds from sales of fixed assets Purchase of investments in subsidiaries Others Investment cash flow -275 1,160 4,928 6,088 Source: Shared Research based on company data In FY03/07 sales rose by 30% YoY to JPY20.4bn. Operating cash flow has been positive since FY03/99. Excluding investment for production capacity increases, capital investment has annual demand for renewal of about JPY1.0bn. Operating cash flow continues to exceed investment cash flow, underpinning debt repayment. FY03/14 was cash-positive, and this trend has continued. Cash flow (JPYbn) and capital investment (JPYmn) Operating CF Financial CF Cash and equivalents (right axis) 25 20 Investment CF Dept (right axis) 35 3,500 Capital investments 30 3,000 Depreciation 15 25 2,500 10 20 2,000 5 15 1,500 0 10 1,000 -5 5 500 -10 0 0 FY03/00 (JPYbn) FY03/05 FY03/10 FY03/15 FY03/00 (JPYmn) FY03/05 FY03/10 FY03/15 Source: Shared Research based on company data www.sharedresearch.jp 48/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Other information LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Other information Corporate governance The company has a board of directors and board of corporate auditors, with an executive officer system in place to increase transparency. A management meeting for directors and executive officers is held periodically. In June 2015, CMP had five directors (including one outside director) and four corporate auditors (including two outside corporate auditors). Six of these directors and auditors also serve as executive officers. Outside director Koji Ueda is a CPA, professor of management strategy at the Kwansei Gakuin University Professional Graduate School Institute of Business and Accounting, and representative partner at Nexus Audit Company. The two outside corporate auditors both established tax office practices after retiring from the Japanese National Tax Agency. Top management President Masataka Uetake (born January 12, 1945) Uetake joined CMP in 1968. In 1997 he became director and general manager of the marine paints division. In 2003 he became a managing director and president of the marine coatings division. In 2007 he became a senior managing director, overseeing sales and overseas operations. In April 2010, he was appointed president. At end March 2015, Uetake held 162,000 CMP shares. Dividend policy The company aims to provide stable dividends, based on company performance (see table). Shareholder returns Shareholder returns FY09/05 FY09/06 FY09/07 FY09/08 FY09/09 FY09/10 FY09/11 FY09/12 FY09/13 FY09/14 FY09/15 FY09/16 (JPYmn) Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Est. DPS (JPY) 8 8 10 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 15 15 Total dividends a) 516 516 688 894 894 893 893 866 893 860 993 993 Total treasury stock acquired b) 23 19 20 55 41 7 6 3 975 4 8 Total returns to shareholders c) = a) + b) 539 535 708 949 935 900 899 869 1,868 864 1,001 Net income d) 2,704 2,633 4,853 5,117 5,031 5,422 5,701 3,067 2,978 3,269 4,748 6,000 Payout ratio Total shareholder payout ratio a) / d) c) / d) 19.1% 19.9% 19.6% 20.3% 14.2% 14.6% 17.5% 18.5% 17.8% 18.6% 16.5% 16.6% 15.7% 15.8% 28.2% 28.3% 30.0% 62.7% 26.3% 26.4% 20.9% 21.1% 16.6% - Shareholders' equity DOE f) a) / f) 29,326 1.8% 33,142 1.6% 38,575 1.8% 38,818 2.3% 37,851 2.4% 43,488 2.1% 45,744 2.0% 47,307 1.8% 52,820 1.7% 62,487 1.4% 72,480 1.4% - Source: Shared Research based on company data Shareholder composition Entity Japan Trustee Services Bank,Ltd.(Trust account) The Hiroshima Bank, Ltd. The Master Trust Bank of Japan, Ltd. (Trust account) Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance Company Mitsubishi Corporation STATE STREET BANK AND TRUST COMPANY The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd . Japan Trustee Services Bank, Ltd.(Trust account #9 ) JP MORGAN CHASE BANK 385632 Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corporation Treasury shares Total shares outstanding Shares ('000) 5,919 3,294 2,405 2,000 1,858 1,657 1,553 1,474 1,310 1,280 2,855 69,069 % of outstanding shares 8.6% 4.8% 3.5% 2.9% 2.7% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 4.1% 100.0% Source: Shared Research based on company data (as of end March 2015) www.sharedresearch.jp 49/52 R Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints > Other information LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Number of employees 2008 Mar number of employee 2241 Shiga 23 Shiga 43 Kyushu 16 Otake research center 93 Kinki service center 0 Ohters 198 Otake Meishin Chemiica 61 Kobe Paint 58 Other domestic factorie 162 2009 Mar 2353 23 47 19 93 0 203 67 58 176 2010 Mar 2337 32 35 21 100 0 210 59 58 180 2011 Mar 2432 40 37 28 103 0 215 58 57 166 2012 Mar 2438 42 35 62 102 0 207 60 56 166 2013 Mar 2386 42 36 59 99 0 189 60 54 158 2014 Mar 2286 38 35 58 100 0 183 56 49 160 2015 Mar 2356 37 34 55 93 0 176 56 45 166 Shanghai Guangdong Korea Singapore Malaysia Indoneasia Thai US the Netherlands Other overseas 2008 Mar 590 212 138 102 135 107 172 29 63 39 2009 Mar 677 168 166 104 144 103 176 28 74 27 2010 Mar 748 100 163 106 130 103 176 28 63 25 2011 Mar 799 129 159 110 133 104 176 27 65 26 2012 Mar 781 104 167 96 142 106 177 25 68 42 2013 Mar 749 105 157 96 128 108 201 21 78 46 2014 Mar 682 79 159 96 121 112 207 21 88 42 2015 Mar 715 80 180 97 121 120 221 28 86 46 Source: Shared Research based on company data About paints Characteristics of paint industry These include: ▶ ▶ ▶ Broad user base; Specialized safety and environmental awareness; Low barriers to entry, so small companies can enter the market—leading to many manufacturers. However, in the company’s mainstay marine paints sector or heavy anti-corrosion sector, development and manufacture for specialized uses and a global supply network (marine paints) is essential. Regulatory approval needs to be acquired for each country and customers like strong track records. As such, new entrants struggle. Paint products in these sectors are “products” and “half products”. For coatings to work, correct application is key and so CMP conducts application training onsite. Composition of paints Paints contain resins, pigments, additives, and solvents. Resins are a key ingredient for coatings, and determine the properties of the coating. Pigments add color, and can act as a determinant in coating thickness, or as a protective layer. Additives improve coating functionality. Solvents adjust the density of resins. Solvents evaporate, so are not part of coatings. Composition of coatings Coatings are separated into lower, middle, and upper layers. Development is ongoing to formulate a single coating that incorporates the features of each layer. Lower layer coatings protect the underlying material. Middle layer coatings aid in the function of the finished product and bond the lower and upper layers. The upper layer coatings have either cosmetic or functional roles, like anti-fouling. www.sharedresearch.jp 50/52 R Shared Research Report Chugoku Marine Paints | 4617 | Chugoku Marine Paints > Other information LAST UPDATE【2015/12/24】 Profile Company Head office Tokyo club building Chugoku Marine Paints, Ltd. 3-2-6 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0013 Phone Listed on +81-3-3506-3951 Tokyo Stock Exchange 1st Section Established Exchange listing May 1917 October 2, 1961 Audit firm Fiscal year-end Ernst & Young ShinNihon LLC March Website IR web http://www.cmp.co.jp/global.html http://www.cmp.co.jp/global/financial_results.html www.sharedresearch.jp 51/52 R Shared Research Report About Shared Research Inc. We offer corporate clients comprehensive report coverage, a service that allows them to better inform investors and other stakeholders by presenting a continuously updated third-party view of business fundamentals, independent of investment biases. Shared Research can be found on the web at http://www.sharedresearch.jp. Current Client Coverage of Shared Research Inc. Accretive Co., Ltd. Gamecard-Joyco Holdings, Inc. Nisshinbo Holdings Inc. AEON DELIGHT Co. GCA Savvian Corporation Onward Holdings Co., Inc. Ai Holdings Corp. Grandy House Corp. Paris Miki Holdings Inc. Aiming Inc. Gulliver International Co., Ltd. NS Tool Co. AnGes MG Inc. Hakuto Co., Ltd. NTT Urban Development Corporation Anicom Holdings, Inc. Happinet Corporation Pigeon Corp. Anritsu Corporation Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. Resorttrust, Inc. Apamanshop Holdings Co., Ltd. Hearts United Group Co., Ltd. Round One Corp. ArtSpark Holdings Inc. Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd. Ryohin Keikaku Co., Ltd. AS ONE Corporation IID, Inc. 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