AE Cilion Plant Re-Start
Transcription
AE Cilion Plant Re-Start
The Aemetis Biorefinery Advanced Renewable Fuels and Chemicals Produced by Conversion of Existing Biofuels Facilities May 2014 Disclaimer Certain of the statements contained herein may be statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. In addition to statements which are forwardlooking by reason of context, the words “may, will, should, expects, plans, intends, anticipates, believes, estimates, predicts, potential, or continue” and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those projected in such statements due to, without limitation: (i) general economic conditions, (ii) ethanol and gasoline prices, (iii) commodity prices, (iv) distillers grain markets, (v) supply and demand factors, (vi) transportation rates for rail/trucks, (vii) interest rate levels, (viii) ethanol imports, (ix) changing levels of competition, (x) changes in laws and regulations, including govt. support/incentives for biofuels, (xi) changes in process technologies, (xii) the impact of acquisitions, including related integration issues, (xiii) reorganization measures and (xiv) general competitive factors on a local, regional, national and/or global basis, (xv) natural gas prices, and (xvi) chemicals and enzyme prices. The matters discussed herein may also involve risks and uncertainties described from time to time in the company’s annual reports and/or auditors’ financial statements. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein, and assumes no liability for the accuracy of any of the information presented herein as of a future date. Aemetis Value Proposition Strong positive cash flow from $178 million biofuels/biochemical revenues in 2013 Operating plants in California and India cost $165 million to build/upgrade Patented technology to produce advanced fuels by upgrading facilities High efficiency production with significant scalability at low cost Lower cost than traditional gasoline and diesel, with high oxygen/octane Strong management and board leadership with proven track record Aemetis means “The One Prudent Wisdom”: Replacing crude oil with renewable resources for fuels and chemicals Ae means “the one” in Scottish Metis means “prudent wisdom”; Metis is the mother of Athena, the Goddess of Wisdom in Greek mythology Table of Contents 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Introduction Company Overview Industry Overview Company Highlights Financial Overview 5 9 23 36 43 4 Introduction 5 Executive Management Founder, Chairman and CEO of Aemetis since 2006 Eric McAfee Chairman and CEO Founder of energy companies including $800 million revenues Pacific Ethanol (Nasdaq: PEIX) and $400 million market cap Evolution Petroleum (NYSE: EPM) Founded seven public companies, including Procera Networks (Nasdaq: PKT) Joined Aemetis in 2007 as Corporate Controller and became CFO in 2010 Todd Waltz EVP and CFO Previously held senior financial management roles with Apple, Inc. for 12 years Prior to Apple, worked with Ernst & Young and Litton Industries Joined Aemetis in 2006 and has held senior leadership positions Andy Foster EVP and President, Aemetis Advanced Fuels Previously served as an executive at BMC Software, Cadence Design Systems, and eSilicon Corporation Served in the George H.W. Bush White House as Associate Director – Office of Political Affairs Served as Deputy Chief of Staff for Illinois Governor Edgar Joined Aemetis in 2007 as President of Biofuels Marketing, Inc. Sanjeev Gupta President, Aemetis International Operations Managed construction of the biodiesel production facility in Kakinada, India President of Universal Biofuels, a subsidiary of Aemetis, since 2009 Previously served as president of a global petrochemical trading company with $250 million in annual revenues 6 Company Summary Aemetis, Inc. (the “Company”) was founded in February 2006 by biofuels industry veteran Eric McAfee and has since grown to become a leading second-generation renewable fuels and specialty chemicals company with $178 million in revenues during 2013 Since its formation, the Company’s primary focus has been the development and deployment of patented industrial biotechnology to convert first-generation ethanol and biodiesel plants (which primarily use corn and edible oils as feedstocks) into advanced second-generation biorefineries (which are capable of using non-food substitutes to produce ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel and renewable jet fuel, and renewable chemicals and feed products) The Company currently wholly owns and operates two integrated second-generation plants with combined production capacity of 110 million gallons per year: Keyes Plant India Plant Location: Keyes, California (Northern California) Type: Ethanol renewable fuels plant Capacity: 60 million gallons per year Feedstock: Grain sorghum and corn In August 2013, Aemetis Keyes became the first converted corn ethanol plant certified by the EPA as a producer approved to use milo/biogas/CHP to receive D5 Advanced Biofuel RIN’s. Location: Kakinada, India Type: Biodiesel and renewable chemicals plant Capacity: 50 million gallons per year Feedstock: Waste tallow, cooking oil and Stearine In 2013, India began phasing out diesel subsidies, causing prices to rise and biodiesel margins to grow. The EU market and California are rapidly growing, profitable markets for the non-food, low-carbon biodiesel produced in India. The Company operates a biotechnology R&D lab in Maryland and holds five advanced biofuels technology patents The Keyes plant generated $10 million of Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2013 and $14 million in Q1 2014. The Company is a federally approved EB-5 borrower for up to $36 million of 3% interest rate subordinated debt funding, and has received $5 million from the EB-5 offering into escrow or funded to Company. 7 Company Highlights Strong Asset Coverage Strategically Located to Serve Large Addressable Markets Favorable Demand / Supply Dynamics Healthy Margin Improvement Improving Free Cash Flow Profile Substantial Upside from Next Generation Technology Experienced Management Team Keyes Plant was originally constructed in 2008 at a cost of $132 million, then upgraded at a cost of $13 million for a total investment of $145 million India plant was originally constructed in 2008 at a cost of $22 million and upgraded with glycerin refinery $165 million aggregate construction cost for 100% owned plant assets Proximity of the Keyes Plant to the deep water port of Stockton and Union Pacific rail system provides access to milo feedstock from key international and domestic markets California is a $1.3 billion ethanol market and a $120 million wet distillers grains (“WDG”) market with more than one million dairy cows 100% of ethanol and distillers grains, an ethanol by-product, are sold within 80 miles of the Keyes Plant India is a large producer of waste Stearine and beef tallow, the key feedstocks for the India Plant Environmental regulation and favorable secular trends are expected to drive substantial increases in the demand for biofuels Current production capacity of advanced biofuels is well below future mandated levels Production of advanced biofuels using less expensive milo is expected to substantially improve profitability at the Keyes Plant January 2013 deregulation of diesel price in India is expected to result in substantial margin improvement for Aemetis’ biodiesel plant in India Plant conversion, industry trends and margin expansion are contributing to improving cash flow Four quarters positive EBITDA: record Adjusted EBITDA of $10 million in Q4 2013 and $14 million in Q1 2014 Aemetis has five granted patents in next generation technologies First global licensee of renewable jet and diesel fuel technology from Chevron Lummus and Applied Research Associates (“Chevron Lummus / ARA”) Founded in 2006, Aemetis is led by biofuels industry veterans with extensive global experience Members of the Board of Directors have extensive expertise in the chemicals, agriculture, food, molecular biology and biotechnology industries 8 Company Overview 9 Aemetis Vision Aemetis is an international renewable fuels and biochemicals company using patented industrial biotechnology for the conversion of firstgeneration ethanol and biodiesel plants into advanced biorefineries. Traditional Corn Ethanol and Vegetable Oil Biodiesel Advanced Biofuels (Sorghum/Tallow Feedstocks) PAST PRESENT FUTURE G1 G2 G3 10 Non-Food, Low Carbon, Less Land Fuels/Chemicals Aemetis Key Highlights Owns and operates renewable fuels and chemicals facilities in US and India − Acquired Cilion, Inc. 60 MGY ethanol plant in Keyes, CA in 2012 (build and upgrade cost $145 million) − Built 50 MGY advanced biofuel plant in Kakinada, India in 2008 (build cost $22 million) Acquired Zymetis, Inc., a novel biorefining technology company, for its patent portfolio and production processes in 2011 − 5 granted patents on enzyme and microbe technology for biofuels production − First global licensee of renewable jet and diesel fuel technology from Chevron Lummus / ARA $178 million in 2013 revenues; quarterly revenues grew to a record $60 million in Q1 2014 Four quarters positive EBITDA: record Adjusted EBITDA of $10 million in Q4 2013 and $14 million in Q1 2014 125+ employees worldwide Key Customers 11 Key Company and Industry Milestones February 2007 Acquired Energy Enzymes - Former DOE funded enzyme technology for enzyme production and integration November 2008 Mid-2009 April 2011 Built 50 MGY non-food feedstock and biomass energy biorefinery in Kakinada, India to use waste stearine and tallow to produce biodiesel and glycerin Obtained necessary permits and approvals to sell biofuel into Europe, U.S. and Indian domestic market Leased, retrofitted and restarted operations of 60 MGY ethanol plant in Keyes, California owned by Cilion, Inc. July 2011 December 2011 January 2012 Acquired Zymetis, Inc., a novel biorefining technology company, for its patent portfolio and production process Federal $0.45 per gallon ethanol blender tax credit ended Completed construction of India refining unit and obtained permits to sell into domestic food markets in India April 2012 July 2012 December 2012 Glycerin refining and oil pretreatment units completed at India Plant, producing refined glycerin for pharma and industrial use Acquired 60 MGY ethanol plant in Keyes through acquisition of 100% of Cilion, Inc. for 11% of common stock and $15m cash EPA ruling that ethanol made from milo and biogas using CHP is advanced biofuel with 50% reduction in carbon content January 2013 June 2013 India government begins phase out of 35% diesel subsidies, increasing the domestic India sales price and margins for biodiesel Achieved high-volume production of lower-carbon ethanol using milo feedstock and a Combined Heat & Power (CHP) system in an integrated process with traditional feedstock India Plant generated more than $32 million of revenue in 2013 and $2.5 million of positive cash flow June 2013 August 2013 February 2014 ($ in thousands) $600 Received EPA approval as the first converted corn ethanol plant approved to produce D5 Advanced Biofuels using milo and biogas with the Keyes plant’s existing Combined Heat & Power system Announced commissioning of biodiesel distillation unit at India Plant, the only large-scale distilled biodiesel plant in India Cumulative Ethanol, Biodiesel and Other Revenue $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Ethanol Biodiesel 12 Keyes Plant Description General Designed by Praj Industries, an industry leading builder of ethanol plants that has been involved in the design and development of more than 450 alcohol plants Products & Production Stabilized production capacity of more than 60 MGY, with permits allowing up to 75 MGY Products include: − Ethanol – $111.2 million of revenue in FY 2013 • Approved by EPA in August 2013 for production of advanced biofuels − Distillers grains – $30.2 million of revenue in FY 2013 − Corn oil – $2.6 million of revenue in FY 2013 Achieved 20 months of continuous operations from May 2011 to January 2013; an industry milestone In June 2013, achieved high-volume production using milo and a Combined Heat & Power (CHP) system in an integrated process with traditional feedstock Feedstock In January 2013, the plant was retrofitted to accommodate the use of milo feedstock 84 million pounds of advanced biofuels feedstock (milo) used in biofuels production in 2013 Systems Plant control system can be managed from the on-site control center or remotely by the plant’s operations managers Zero waste water discharge with on-site water recycling and purification system Combined heat and power system fully operational Steam generation system powered by three natural gas-fired Victory Energy steam boilers 4.5 MW steam turbine generator supplies the electrical power required for production by using natural gas or biogas 13 Keyes Plant Description (continued) Location Access to the Union Pacific rail line provides access to key feedstock markets Close proximity (40 miles) to the deep water Port of Stockton provides access to less expensive milo from key international feedstock markets (e.g., Argentina) 100% of ethanol and WDG production sold locally California is one of the largest ethanol markets (1.3 BGY) and represented approximately 10% of the total U.S. ethanol market in 2012 Strong regulatory support for ethanol includes the California Low Carbon Fuel Standards and the California Energy Commission biofuels grant programs Customers 100% of distillers grains production is sold within 80 miles of the Keyes Plant location, thereby eliminating the need and cost of large dryers 100% of the ethanol produced at the Keyes Plant is sold to refiners within 80 miles of the Keyes Plant, and is blended into gasoline sold in San Jose, Sacramento and San Francisco Value Original build cost of $132 million in 2008, upgraded for $13 million and acquired by the Company in July 2012 Total build cost $145 million 14 Keyes Plant Aerial View 1) Union Pacific Rail System access 2) Two corn/milo storage tanks (owned by A.L. Gilbert) and one feedstock bin (owned by Aemetis) 3) Liquefaction Area 4) Three 1.15 MG fermentation tanks and one 1.5 MG beer well 5) Distillation and Evaporation 6) Cooling Towers and three boilers 7) Distiller Grain processing and loading area 8) One 1.05 MG denatured ethanol storage tank, two 210,000 gallon 200-proof ethanol storage tanks and one 63,000 gallon 190-proof ethanol storage tank 9) Ethanol truck loading area 10) 3,100 sq. ft. office building 11) 1.5 MG water storage tank 12) Control center and laboratory A.L. Gilbert Feedmill 1 3 5 4 2 9 12 11 8 6 7 15 10 Keyes Plant Photos 16 Technology & Production Process Typical Dry Mill Ethanol Process(1) 1) Aemetis’ distillers grains are sold wet and therefore do not require large and expensive industrial dryers which often require significant maintenance. 17 Aemetis Process Benchmarking Aemetis sells ethanol in California where it demands a premium price over ethanol sold in the U.S. on average. The Keyes Plant is one of the most efficient and productive facilities in the industry, with a higher yield than the industry average. Los Angeles Ethanol Price vs. Mid-West Ethanol Price Yield (gallons/bushel) Series 1 $3.20 3.00 $0.18 higher ethanol pricing(1) 2.95 $3.00 2.90 $2.80 4% higher efficiency than the industry(2) 2.90 2.85 2.80 2.80 $2.60 2.75 $2.40 2.70 2.65 $2.20 2.60 LA Ethanol Price 2.55 12/1/13 9/1/13 6/1/13 3/1/13 12/1/12 9/1/12 6/1/12 3/1/12 12/1/11 9/1/11 6/1/11 $2.00 2.50 Keyes Chicago Ethanol Price 1) Source: Oil Price Information Service. 2) Source: Industry average yield - Renewable Fuel Association. 18 Industry Destination Model a Competitive Differentiator West Coast location and large local markets provide several advantages over Midwest ethanol producers 10% ethanol mandate in California is approximately a 1.3 billion gallon market yearly Given limited production capacity, California must import over 1 BGY of ethanol to meet demand Ethanol produced in California has a much lower carbon content which translates into higher selling prices per gallon Less expensive to ship corn to California than to ship ethanol and distillers grains to California − Unit trains (100 cars); ease of handling; short turnaround times; fewer delays − Proximity to customers avoids the need to dry distillers grains, significantly reducing energy and handling costs Ethanol shipments from the Midwest competes with crude oil for rail access which has driven up the price of ethanol to the benefit of producers in California − Rail tanker car shortage driven by demand for rail cars from new oil fields (e.g. Bakken and Canada) without pipelines − Safety concerns regarding older tanker cars; new tanker regulations − Long lead times coupled with limited availability of new rail cars will likely result in a prolonged shortage of tanker cars 19 CA Dairy Concentration Map Keyes Plant India Plant Description General Built and 100% owned by Aemetis subsidiary Aemetis International Products & Production 50 MGY nameplate biodiesel production capacity 50 MGY additional capacity can be added at a cost of approximately $15 million Products − Biodiesel: $4.3 million in revenue for FY 2012 and $16.6 million for FY 2013 − Refined glycerin: $2.1 million in revenue for FY 2012 and $4.6 million for FY 2013 − Natural refined palm oil and other: $7.8 million in revenue for FY 2012 and $11.6 million for FY 2013 India subsidiary received an Indian Pharmacopeia license in Q1 2012, enabling sale of refined glycerin to the pharmaceutical industry Feedstock Largest India plant to use waste stearine and beef tallow, saving 8-10% compared to edible palm oil Feedstock requirements sourced from local suppliers Currently the only India plant not paying 10% tariff when using imported feedstock Systems Glycerin refining and oil pretreatment units completed in Q2 2012 Location India is a large producer of stearine and beef tallow, the key feedstocks for the India Plant Customers Value Pharmaceutical and industrial customers for refined glycerin Continued European sales of biodiesel Original plant build cost of $22 million in 2008 Historically, the Indian government subsidized petroleum-based diesel, which made biodiesel uncompetitive. As a result, the India Plant focused on exporting biodiesel and producing glycerin Market Dynamics In January 2013, the Indian Government announced it would gradually end subsidies to the diesel market, allowing local prices to rise over time to the world price, which is about 35% higher The Company currently sells its biodiesel in India at a small discount to diesel and anticipates plant utilization will grow in 2014 based upon elimination of diesel subsidies, as well as expanding EU and California shipments 20 India Plant Photos 21 Intellectual Property The Company operates an R&D lab in Maryland and earned five granted advanced biofuels technology patents. 5 Awarded Licensed Chevron Lummus / ARA renewable Jet and Diesel Fuel: Five awarded patents on enzyme and microbe technology: − Patented plant wall degradative compounds and systems − Patented chitin degradative compound and systems − Patented cloning abilities − Patented degradation of whole plant materials by saccharophagus degradans − Patented processes for plant polysaccharide conversion 22 − Catalytic hydrothermolysis process converts plant oils to crude oil intermediates − High pressure high temperature process in single reactor − Only known 100% replacement “neat” jet fuel − November 2012 Canadian National Research Council, first flight of 100% renewable jet fuel Industry Overview 23 U.S. Ethanol Production Ethanol is high octane (113) and cleaner burning motor fuel derived from corn, grain sorghum and other plants which can be used safely in virtually every gasoline engine at varying levels Ethanol is mandated by Federal Air Quality and renewable fuels laws to replace the carcinogenic chemical MTBE With more than 13 billion gallons of annual US production, ethanol represents approximately 10% of the U.S. gasoline supply The majority of American consumers are using E10 ethanol blends (10% ethanol), and E15 (15% ethanol) and E85 (85% ethanol) availability is increasing The U.S. ethanol industry has grown to 211 plants operating in 29 states and consumption has grown at a CAGR of 18.7% from 2000 to 2012 U.S. Ethanol Production (1) (millions of gallons) 16,600 13,312 13,929 13,298 13,218 14,600 12,600 10,938 10,600 9,309 8,600 6,521 6,600 4,600 2,600 1,622 1,765 2,140 2,810 3,404 3,904 4,884 600 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(2) 1) Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, December 2013 Monthly Energy Review 2) Source: Aemetis management estimates based on YTD production (as reported by EIA) and recent industry trends 24 Drivers of Ethanol Demand The U.S. ethanol industry has grown to 211 plants with annual capacity of 15.2 billion gallons Last year, in the midst of a severe drought, the industry produced about 13.3 billion gallons of ethanol, very close to 2010 levels − One of the primary drivers of Ethanol Demand in the U.S. is government mandates for renewable fuels − The Environmental Protection Agency requires gasoline blenders to use a certain amount of ethanol and other bio-fuels The minimum levels for ethanol to continue to increase from 13.8 billion gallons in 2013 to 15.0 billion gallons in 2015 (1) Refiners can meet the requirement by buying biofuel and blending it into gasoline or by accumulating credits known as RINs and applying them to such requirements Next year, blenders are expected to blend more ethanol to meet the increasing mandates Every time ethanol is mixed into gas, or fuel already blended with ethanol is imported, fuel blenders receive a credit from the government (a “RIN”), and that credit can be sold to other companies that don’t blend ethanol to help them meet federal requirements If fuel blenders and refiners fall short of their biofuel blending obligation, they can face fines of $32,500 a day 1) On November 15, 2013, the EPA proposed a change to the 2014 Renewable Fuel Standards. A final 2014 RFS RVO is due in June 2013. 25 The Increasing RFS Mandate (1) In order to meet the increasing Renewable Fuel Standards, holding all other variables constant, obligated parties are expected to blend greater amounts of ethanol The current RFS was enacted with the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA2007) RFS created two principal categories – renewable fuels and advanced biofuels − “Renewable fuels” must reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% relative to gasoline or diesel and “advanced biofuels” must reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% − RFS includes specific volume requirements for three subcategories of advanced biofuels: unspecified, cellulosic biofuels, and biomass-based diesel − Corn-based ethanol is excluded from the advanced biofuel category Existing U.S. Corn-Ethanol Production Capacity Billions of Gallons Renewable Fuel Standard Mandate Schedule (2) 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Biomass-based Diesel 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Non-cellulosic Advanced 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 4.0 Cellulosic Advanced 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.0 4.3 5.5 7.0 8.5 10.5 13.5 16.0 Conventional Biofuels 10.5 12.0 12.6 13.2 13.8 14.4 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 1) On November 15, 2013, the EPA proposed a change to the 2014 Renewable Fuel Standards. Once the proposal is published in the Federal Register, it will be open for a 60 day public comment period. 2) Source: United States Environmental Protection Agency 26 California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) LCFS is a state-enacted policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles Under LCFS, every fuel has a “carbon intensity value” (CI) − CI values estimate the level of lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of a particular fuel taking into account the feedstock, the production process and plant location − LCFS requires substitutes for fossil fuels to have lower carbon intensity than the fuels they replace Ethanol produced through an LCFS approved pathway can be sold at a premium because it reduces the carbon credits the blender is required to purchase in the market − The value of LCFS to the fuel producer depends on the price of a carbon credit and the CI value of the fuel • Lower CI values produce higher premiums • Higher carbon credit prices produce higher premiums Carbon Intensity Values(1) 100 90.1 80 80.7 73.75 60 70.7 68.91 56.66 53.62 51.82 40 20 0 Benchmark MW Corn + NG MW Corn + NG + LCFS MW Corn + biogas + LCFS Chicago CA Corn + NG + CA Corn + biogas LCFS + LCFS Aemetis Pathways 27 Milo + NG Milo + biogas Blenders Have Been Using Surplus RINS to Meet Mandate As the supply of RINs diminishes, refiners will be required to blend greater amounts of ethanol in order to meet the increasing RFS mandate (4) The last few years saw a build-up of a backlog of RINs as blending economics were strong and ethanol production surpassed the RFS mandates, funded by $0.45 per gallon of taxpayer subsidy to oil refiners and fuel blenders However, the RFS mandate is now higher than the 10% blend wall in 2013, resulting in no growth in RIN supply, growing biofuels demand and an expected deficit of RINs by late 2014 Corn Ethanol (D6) RIN Stock Analysis(1) Year Production 2007 6,521 2008 9,309 2009 10,938 2010 13,298 2011 13,929 2012 13,300 2013 12,839 2014 12,839 2015 12,839 Exports (399) (1,195) (742) (563) Mandate 4,700 9,000 10,500 12,000 12,600 13,200 13,800 14,400 15,000 Surplus (Deficit) 1,821 309 438 899 134 (642) (1,525) (1,561) (2,161) RIN Stock(2) Starting Ending 0 1,821 1,800 2,109 2,100 2,538 2,400 3,299 2,520 2,654 2,640 1,998 1,998 474 474 (1,088) 0 (2,161) Carry Forward Limit(3) 1,800 2,100 2,400 2,520 2,640 2,760 2,880 3,000 3,000 What is a RIN? RINS Carry Forward 1,800 2,100 2,400 2,520 2,640 1,998 474 0 0 A Renewable Identification Number (RIN) is a serial number assigned to a batch of biofuel for the purpose of tracking its production, use, and trading as required by the United States Environmental Protection Agency's Renewable Fuel Standard. To ensure compliance, obligated parties are periodically required to demonstrate they have met their RFS quota by submitting a certain amount of RINs to the EPA. Each RIN includes a code, preceded by the letter D, which is used for identifying the renewable fuel category. D5 RINs meet the RFS criteria as an advanced biofuel while a D6 RIN is used for traditional renewable fuels, including ethanol produced from corn. 1) 2) 3) 4) Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Aemetis management estimates Estimates only. May differ from EPA reported figures. Carry Forward limited to 20% of mandate in the following year. On November 15, 2013, the EPA proposed a change to the 2014 Renewable Fuel Standards. Once the proposal is published in the Federal Register, it will be open for a 60 day public comment period. 28 RIN Pricing has Escalated with Diminishing Supply (1) Aemetis is one of the few plants equipped and geographically positioned to obtain milo for production of the D5 RIN and capture the premium in the market D6 RIN prices had historically ranged between $0.01 to $0.05 but appreciated significantly in early 2013 This increase in prices reflected the market’s concern that rising RFS-mandated volumes and the blend wall would significantly increase the cost to meet the RFS statutory volumes Convergence is a result of D6 RIN scarcity, D5 has always been scarce The price of RINs has decreased substantially since mid-July 2013 and the D5 / D6 pricing spread has widened to $0.07 D5 / D6 RIN Pricing Spread in dollars (2) $ / gallon 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 $0.33 $0.26 0.2 0 1) 2) Ethanol RIN Credit (D6) Advanced Biofuel RIN Credit (D5) On November 15, 2013, the EPA proposed a change to the 2014 Renewable Fuel Standards. Once the proposal is published in the Federal Register, it will be open for a 60 day public comment period. Source: Oil Price Information Service 29 10% Blend Wall Had Limited Growth Beyond Existing Ethanol Production Prior to August 2012, gasoline / ethanol blends were primarily limited to 10%(1), referred to as E10, by the EPA The term “Blend Wall” refers to the maximum amount of ethanol that can be blended in to gasoline as a result of this 10% limitation until fuel retailers add pump stickers to show 15% ethanol content The Blend Wall was effectively eliminated in August 2012 when the EPA approved use of 15% ethanol blends (“E15”) in lightduty vehicles beginning with model year 2001 which represents approximately 85% of all vehicle fuel consumption Despite the approval of E15, U.S. oil refiners have actively opposed blends higher than E10 The 40% fall in corn costs in late Q3 2013 has created a large price gap between $105 crude oil and inexpensive sugars, resulting in E85 fuel selling for only $2.65 per gallon in Iowa (compared to $4.00 gasoline prices) 12.0% 10,000 11.0% 8,000 10.0% 6,000 9.0% 4,000 8.0% 2,000 7.0% 0 6.0% (2,000) 2009 2010 Blending (LHS) 2011 2012 10% Blend Wall (LHS) Source: United States Energy Information Administration 1) E85 is permitted for Flex Fuel vehicles. 30 Production (LHS) 2013 Net Exports (RHS) Gallons % of U.S. Gasoline Consumption The “Blend Wall” Ethanol in Demand in Export Markets(1) 2013 U.S. exports, in millions of gallons Canada 325 Europe 39 East Asia 8 Middle East 40 Mexico 31 Peru 30 Jamaica 10 India 13 Africa 10 Brazil 47 Rest of world =15 1) Source: Renewable Fuels Association www.EthanolRFA.org 31 Philippines 52 Favorable Supply / Demand Dynamics In the near term, Aemetis is well positioned to benefit from the existing supply / demand imbalance Demand Factors Supply Factors At 15% of U.S. gasoline consumption, total ethanol demand would increase from 13.3 BGY in 2013 to 19.9 BGY(1) Increased blending of ethanol is mandated by RFS (4) − Corn-based ethanol mandate increasing from 13.8 BGY in 2013 to 15.0 BGY in 2015 − Advanced biofuels mandate increases from 2.8 BGY in 2013 to 3.8 BGY, 5.5 BGY, 7.3 BGY and 9.0 BGY in 2014 to 2017, respectively As oil prices increase, refiners will likely increase use of ethanol in order to moderate gasoline price increases The heightened focus on energy independence and security is anticipated to continue to help shape U.S. energy policy and benefit the biofuels industry The $40 billion ethanol industry is a significant contributor to the U.S. economy by employing more than 400,000 people and is a key industry for many rural communities providing a level of political protection for biofuels There are 211 U.S. ethanol plants with aggregate production capacity of about 15 BGY(2) New construction of traditional corn based ethanol plants has virtually halted and only 4 plants with aggregate production capacity of 158 MGY are under construction or expansion(1) 1) 2) 3) 4) Source: EPA; calculation based on 133 billion gallons of gasoline supplied during the last twelve months ending June 30, 2013. Source: Renewable Fuels Association; as of January 2013. Sources: American Coalition for Ethanol, Renewable Fuels Association and the Energy Independent (BBI International). On November 15, 2013, the EPA proposed a change to the 2014 Renewable Fuel Standards. Once the proposal is published in the Federal Register, it will be open for a 60 day public comment period. 32 Demand Outlook Environmental policy, air quality, energy security and the growing need for domestic fuel sources are anticipated to drive growth for ethanol for the foreseeable future. Other factors driving ethanol demand include increased usage of ethanol for octane enhancement, high gasoline prices in recent years and a desire to boost rural economies. In the past two decades, ethanol demand has been dependent on environmental issues, oxygenated fuel requirements, reformulated gasoline programs in the U.S. and the phase-out of MTBE U.S. Market The major legislative issue affecting future demand for ethanol is the new RFS schedule in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 With the more aggressive biofuel targets, RFS is having more of an immediate impact than the original renewable fuel standard In 2012, the ethanol industry supported more than 87,000 direct jobs, 295,000 indirect jobs and contributed more than $30.2 billion in household income(1) Regardless how the national regulatory environment develops, California will likely continue to be a key market for ethanol California Market The California ethanol market alone is approximately 1.3 BGY There are currently only three sizable ethanol plants operating in California with aggregate production capacity of 180 MGY, requiring 1.36 BGY imported from other states to meet California biofuels demand At 60MGY, ethanol production from the Keyes Plant represents only 4.6% of the total California market California has a mandatory ten percent (10%) blend 1) On November 15, 2013, the EPA proposed a change to the 2014 Renewable Fuel Standards. Once the proposal is published in the Federal Register, it will be open for a 60 day public comment period. 2) Source: Renewable Fuel Association – 2013 Ethanol Industry Outlook 33 Benefits of Milo as a Feedstock Alternative to Corn Milo is a genus of numerous species of grasses and is mainly grown in dry and hot climates of the U.S. which are not conducive for corn production From an ethanol feedstock perspective, milo has several advantages over corn. − Unlike corn, in the U.S., milo is used primarily as a feed grain for livestock and not for food products − Milo is more drought tolerant than corn and uses significantly less water to grow − Milo is grown in hot and dry climates where land is less costly, and uses less fertilizer than corn − When used along with advanced process technologies, such as biogas digesters and combined heat and power, ethanol produced from milo at a plant powered by biogas has 52% lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to gasoline In addition to these advantages, average imported and domestic milo prices have historically been 5% to 10% below the price of corn, making it an attractive feedstock alternative for ethanol Aemetis’ Keyes Plant was converted in 2013 to utilize milo or corn, and can seamlessly combine feedstocks or switch production between feedstocks depending on market conditions and prices Price Received ($/bu) U.S. Corn and Milo Pricing 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 Corn Milo Corn $4.41/bu Dec. 2013 MIlo $4.19/bu Dec. 2013 Sources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Quick Stats Database 34 Corn and Milo Prices Have Been Declining to Our Benefit Price Received ($/bu) Corn futures prices are falling as U.S. corn production for the 2013 / 2014 crop year is expected to reach a record level of 13.8 billion bushels according to USDA estimates as of September 2013. 8.00 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.75 6.50 6.25 6.00 5.75 5.50 5.25 5.00 4.75 4.50 4.25 4.00 U.S. Corn and andMilo MiloPricing Pricing U.S. Corn Corn Milo Sources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Quick Stats Database 35 Company Highlights 36 Management Team Eric A. McAfee, Chairman and CEO Founding shareholder of $800 million revenues Pacific Ethanol (NASDAQ: PEIX) Founding shareholder of several publicly-held energy companies including Evolution Petroleum (NYSE: EPM) Founded seven public companies and funded twenty-five private companies as principal investor Appointed as GlobalScot by First Minister to advise the country of Scotland on renewable energy Todd Waltz, EVP and CFO Joined Aemetis in 2007 as Corporate Controller and became CFO in 2010 Previously held senior financial management roles with Apple, Inc. for 12 years Litton Industries five years in accounting roles Ernst & Young five years to earn CPA and tax training Andy Foster, EVP and President, Aemetis Advanced Fuels Joined Aemetis in 2006 and has held senior leadership positions including Senior Vice President, Chief Operating Officer and his current role as President of the advanced fuels business Previously served as an executive at BMC Software, Cadence Design Systems and eSilicon Corporation Served in the George H.W. Bush White House (1989-1992) as Associate Director - Office of Political Affairs and was Deputy Chief of Staff for Illinois Governor Edgar for five years Sanjeev Gupta, EVP and President, Aemetis International Joined Aemetis in 2007 as head of Biofuels Marketing and became Managing Director of Universal Biofuels subsidiary in India in 2008 Previously head of petrochemical trading company with about $250 million of annual revenue and offices on several continents Previously General Manager of International Marketing for Britannia Industries, a subsidiary of Nabisco Brands in India 37 Board of Directors Eric McAfee, Chairman and CEO, Founder Founder of Aemetis in 2006; Pacific Ethanol (Nasdaq: PEIX); Evolution Petroleum (NYSE: EPM); Procera Networks (Nasdaq: PKT) GlobalScot appointed by First Minister of Scotland to advise on renewable energy Harold Sorgenti, Director/Chairman of Governance & Nominating Comm. Former President/CEO of ARCO Chemical Company (12 years including IPO) Principal of Sorgenti Investment Partners (chemical investments) John Block, Director Former Secretary of Agriculture from 1981-86 under President Reagan Food industry association executive for 18 years Fran Barton, Director/Chairman of Audit Committee Former CFO of several multi-billion-dollar revenues companies: AMD, Atmel, Amdahl, UTStarcom, Digital Equipment (PC division) Dr. Steven Hutcheson, Director 25 years bacterial molecular biology and molecular genetics at University of Maryland PhD University of California Berkeley in cellular biology Founder of Zymetis, Inc., acquired by Aemetis in 2011 20 Strategically Located to Serve Large Addressable Markets Aemetis plants are strategically located to cost effectively serve three large target markets: renewable fuels, food & feed and biochemicals. Platform California Biofuels Food & Feed India Biofuels Biochemicals Products Market Size Market Drivers Advanced Ethanol California is a 1.3 billion gallon ethanol market Renewable Jet and Diesel Fuel U.S. jet fuel was a $66 billion market and diesel was a $189 billion market in 2012 Distillers Grain and Corn Oil Aemetis Strategic Advantage Environmental Regulation High gasoline prices Energy independence and security Economic contribution to rural communities Located in CA, the largest advanced fuel mandate in the U.S. Proximity to Stockton, CA deep water port for shipping cost advantage to import milo feedstock or export biofuels California WDG market is over $120 million with over one million dairy cows Population growth Increased demand for meat / milk from higher median global per capita income Proximity to more than 200 dairies and feedlots in CA Reduced shipping distance eliminates costs to dry DG Biodiesel Global market Diesel deregulation in India Population growth Industrial expansion Foreign investment India is a large producer of stearine and beef tallow, some of the lowest cost nonfood feedstocks for renewable fuels Refined Glycerin and Isoprene $30 billion market Increased use of biochemicals in pharmaceuticals Asia‐Pacific represents largest and fastest growing regional market for glycerin worldwide 39 Favorable Supply and Demand Dynamics Increasing consumption of advanced biofuels is mandated by the new renewable fuel standard (“RFS”) schedule in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 Milo-based ethanol using milo, biogas and a Combined Heat & Power system was approved by the EPA as an advanced biofuel in December 2012 that contains 52% less carbon intensity than gasoline Aemetis’ Keyes Plant achieved high volume production of milo-based ethanol in June 2013 and is the first corn ethanol plant to be approved by the EPA for the production of Advanced Biofuels and D5 RINs using milo, biogas and CHP Renewable Fuel Standard (by type, 2009 −22) 40 Billions of Gallons 35 33 Non-cellulosic Advanced 30 Cellulosic Advanced 25 Conventional Biofuels 20 15 36 Biomass-based Diesel 11 13 14 2010 2011 15 1 17 1 18 1 22 21 2 2 24 3 26 3 28 4 30 4 4 4 Existing U.S. Corn-Ethanol Production Capacity 10 5 0 2009 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1) On November 15, 2013, the EPA proposed a change to the 2014 Renewable Fuel Standard 2) Source: United States Environmental Protection Agency 40 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Margin Improvement from Advanced Biofuel Production at Keyes Plant Aemetis is the first converted corn ethanol plant that has received EPA approval to produce advanced biofuels (D5 RIN) using milo/ biogas/ Combined Heat & Power system In June 2013, Aemetis achieved high-volume production of lower-carbon ethanol using milo feedstock and a Combined Heat & Power (CHP) system in an integrated process with traditional feedstock Further deployment of this technology is projected to drive significant margin improvement as a result of lower feedstock cost and the increased value of D5 RINs Anticipated Gross Profit Expansion Anticipated Gross Profit Bridge Corn Milo $1.20 $0.17 Gross Profit (per gallon) $1.10 ($0.20 ) Unit Economics - $/gal $1.00 $0.20 $0.90 $0.80 $0.80 $0.70 $0.68 $0.60 $0.50 $0.40 $0.30 Corn-Ethanol RIN Value & Corn/Milo Gross Margin LCFS Spread Natural Milo-Ethanol Gas/Biogas Gross Margin Spread Ethanol Sales Price $2.31 $2.31 Advanced Biofuel RIN/LCFS Value $0.00 $0.20 Co-Product Sales Price (WDG) $0.78 $0.78 Total revenue $3.09 $3.29 Cost of Inputs (1) $1.99 $1.81 Cost of Transformation (2) $0.42 $0.68 Gross Profit $0.68 $0.80 Gross Margin 22.0% 24.3% 1) Based on average discount of milo to corn of 10%. 2) Includes chemicals, enzymes, denaturant, natural gas, electricity and transportation. 41 Margin Improvement from Deregulation in India January 2013, the Indian Government began to deregulate the diesel market, increasing the price of diesel and biodiesel in India and resulting in substantial margin expansion for Aemetis’ Kakinada India plant Historically, the Indian government set the market price of diesel by providing diesel producers a subsidy that lowered the domestic India price of diesel significantly, which was politically popular However, the diesel subsidy excluded biodiesel, which left producers of biodiesel at a substantial disadvantage In January 2013, amid persistent budget deficits, the Indian government decided to let the free market set the price for diesel The subsidy is being phased out at a rate of 45 paise ($0.72 based on an exchange rate of 62.6 INR/USD) per month India Domestic Diesel Prices Price per litre (Rs) 70.00 66.40 65.25 65.00 66.40 64.25 60.00 55.00 55.00 51.00 Estimated Biodiesel production cost 50.00 45.00 40.00 January 2013 Delhi Diesel Price Estimated Post-Deregulation World Diesel Price Source: Aemetis’ management estimates 42 Biodiesel Price Financial Overview 43 Aemetis Historical Financial Performance 1) Excludes share-based compensation. 44 Summary of Aemetis $36 million of Approved EB-5 Funding Aemetis is approved for up to $36 million of unsecured EB-5 financing by US Customs & Immigration Service (USCIS) Aemetis’ EB-5 Project company is compliant with EB-5 program job creation requirements $1.5 million of funding has already been received by Aemetis from the regional center escrow account for project $3.5 million in escrow currently pending approval by U.S. authorities 50+ applications submitted for initial review at $500,000 per investor Benefits of EB-5 Financing to Aemetis Fully subordinated to the new Senior Secured Notes 4 year notes at 3% interest with no principal payments until maturity EB-5 investors may convert into common shares of Aemetis at $30.00 per share after 36 months Aemetis Advantages to EB-5 Investors U.S. citizenship granted for minimum subscription amount of $549,000 ($500,000 to Aemetis and $49,000 admin fee) Investor funds can be immediately credited towards upwards of 1,300 direct and indirect jobs Fully Insured FDIC Escrow Account holds funds until I-526 approval Aemetis subsidiary in India (Universal Biofuels Pvt. Ltd.) with Indian executive management and staff facilitates communications with India investors 45 Advanced Renewable Fuels and Chemicals Produced by Conversion of Existing Biofuels Facilities www.aemetis.com