Takuya Hasegawa

N i s s a n Re s e a r c h C e n t e r
S o c i a l S c i e n c e Te a m
Re c o m m e n d a t i o n t o t h e
board
Takuya HASEGAWA
Senior Innovation Researcher
NISSAN RESEARCH CENTER
Nov 12, 2014
Sorry,
nothing about NISSAN’s FCEV plan
in 2017 
Social Science Team:
Mission
To realize 4 Essential Conditions
which will allow Nissan to start “fullscale” FCEV business
Mission
FC Supply-Chain
FC Manufacturing
HRSs
Customers
4
(Nissan)
(Nissan)
(Partner)
(All)
Our biggest and immediate concern:
Mission
FC Supply-Chain
FC Manufacturing
HRSs
Customers
5
(Nissan)
(Nissan)
(Partner)
(All)
Cumulative Number of cars in thousand
New Zealand in 1980s
6
MOA
Extinct
source: TwE
Change of NZ
Government
CNGV
Extinct
Energy Supply Responsibility
Let’s overview H2 Key Figures
Ideal Price = 100% Utilization Factor
Gasoline
H2
100km  about €10
100km  about €10
Inherently,
Hydrogen Price can rise easier than Gasoline Price
9
GRSs have 2,000 customers
2,000 (€10k over)
ICEV
10
HRSs wish to have the same capacity
??? (€50k over)
FCEV
11
?
$50k
$10k
$50k over customers in rich Tokyo
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
35.1% Copenhagen
30
26.8% Denmark
20
source: Nissan
10
10.5% TOKYO
12
10,000,000
9,000,000
8,000,000
7,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
Price [JPY]
6,000,000
2.3% JAPAN
0
0
Accumulated Sales Ratio [%]
Yokohama
Osaka
Tokyo
Fukuoka
Kawasaki
Sakai
Kitakyusyu
Kobe
Copenhagen
Denmark
JAPAN
50K euro
5M yen
HRSs wish to have the same capacity?
200 (€50k over)
FCEV
13
Calculated rising cost of H2
Passenger Vehicles (PVs)
1) Required PVs to sustain a standard HRS (300Nm3/h)
2) Total PVs
($50k, ASR10.5% in Tokyo)
3) New PVs
(car cycle 11.67years in Japan)
4) Average PVs
(Σ17i÷5＝60)
2,000
200/car cycle
17/year
45
H2 Price Volatility
2,866%
14
[= 33% + 66% x (2,000 / 45) ) -100%]
H2 Price
Volatility
is 2,866%
in
Early
Business
Years
Calculated rising cost of H2
Passenger Vehicles (PVs)
1) Required PVs to sustain a standard HRS (300Nm3/h)
2) Total PVs
($50k, ASR10.5% in Tokyo)
3) New PVs
(car cycle 11.67years in Japan)
4) Average PVs
(Σ17i÷5＝60)
2,000
200/car cycle
17/year
45
H2 Price Volatility
2,866%
[= 33% + 66% x (2,000 / 45) ) -100%]
Commercial Vehicles (CVs)
1) Required CVs to sustain a professional depot (arbitrary)
2) Total CVs
($50k, as planned)
3) New CVs
(as planned)
4) Average CVs
(as planned)
20
20
20/at once
20
H2 Price Volatility
0%
15
[= 33% + 66% x (20 / 20) ) -100%]
H2 Price
Volatility
is 2,866%
in
Early
Business
Years
H2 Price
Volatility
Is 0%
in
Early
Business
Years
Learn from Gasoline History
2000
30
No. of vehicles per site
1800
25
1600
1400
20
1200
1000
15
800
10
600
600L for
20 Vehicles
400
5
200
Tank Capacity (Portable)
17
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
0
1945
0
Tank capacity per site (k litter)
Historical No. of vehicles per site
What is Portable
Portable
■20 ICEVs per portable GRS
– 600L tank capacity
– 380L refill x 52 weeks
Stationary x10
■Significant annual production
– Portable 3,000 (1970)
– Stationary 2,400 (1970)
Source：「トミナガ100年のあゆみ」
110 Portable GRSs
2,200 ICEVs supported
A strong driver which created early ICEV market
18
Social Science Team:
Recommendation to the board
Nissan should support “De-risk” ideas
in H2 Mobility France
1) FC Commercial vehicles
Lower Risk, but Small market
H2
2) FC Passenger vehicles
Higher Risk, but Large market
20
Where is “business” ?
Chicken OR Egg
(Wrong)
Nonsense
Chicken AND Egg
Chicken OR Egg
(Correct)
Here!
21
4 Essential Conditions
Mission
FC Supply-Chain
FC Manufacturing
HRSs
Customers
22
(Nissan)
(Nissan)
(Partner)
(All)
Thank you for your attention
23