Global Change Dynamic II

Exploring global change drivers and
their effects on vegetation, dynamics
and biodiversity
Dörte Lehsten
Geobiosphere Science Centre
Lund University, Sweden
Dorte.lehsten@nateko.lu.se
Spatial trends
www.ipcc.ch
Spatial trends 1901 to 2005 and 1979-2005
Warming strongest over continental interiors of Asia and
NW North America.
Seasonal warming
www.ipcc.ch
Anthropogenic changes in surface
albedo etc.
• Changes to physical properties of landscapes
can influence climate through radiative forcing
and changing fluxes
• Land cover affects surface albedo
• Albedo different e.g. agricultural land from forest
– forest usually lower than open land due to
greater leaf area and multiple reflections within
the canopy mean higher fraction of radiation
absorbed.
• Snow highly reflective – so snow covered open
land more reflective than forest where trees
remain above the snow
Recent change in annual mean temperature for a five year period,
relative to the time period 1951-1980
www.climatecard.wordpress.com
What might this mean in the arctic for example –
feedbacks ??
www.duke.edu
What might this mean in the arctic for example –
feedbacks ??
Roughness
http://www.slideshare.net/dediego/abrupt-impacts-of-climate-change-anticipating-surprises-nap
http://www.slideshare.net/dediego/abrupt-impacts-of-climate-change-anticipating-surprises-nap
http://www.slideshare.net/dediego/abrupt-impacts-of-climate-change-anticipating-surprises-nap
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-gysfnL5jTvU/Ud2jMnDXQuI/AAAAAAAAG8s/SAGjLHDoRys/s1600/arctic+methane+release.jpg
Volcanic Activity
• E.g. 1815 Mount Tambora – ash carried into
upper atmosphere, blocked sun’s rays for 18
months. Summer of 1816 very cold, snow as far
as south as Massachusetts in June. Widespread
crop failure, famine
• 1991 June - Mt Pinatubo – large aerosol plume
by July encircled the world between 10 S and 30
N
• see Phenology example later
NB – Volcanic activity can influence climate too!!
Wave length and energy distribution from incoming solar radiation
http://remote-sensing.net/images/waveenergy.png
Albedo of different vegetation types and natural earth surfaces
http://www.pvlighthouse.com.au/resources/courses/altermatt/The%20Solar%20Spectrum/figures/Reflectance%20vs%20
wavelength%20of%20natural%20surfaces.png
http://www.skepticalscience.com/images/climate_feed
backs.gif
http://www.slideshare.net/dediego/abrupt-impacts-of-climate-change-anticipating-surprises-nap
What about the future with regard
to climate and human
interactions ?
www.abendblatt.de
Philippines 2013
La Gomera 2013
Haiti 2013
‘We deal with this world as we had
a second in the trunk.’
Jane Fonda (before 1987)
Somalia 2011
Flood Pakistan 2010
Greenhouse gas emissions
Fourth assessment
report 2007
Why and what ?
• Future greenhouse gas emissions are the
product of very complex dynamic systems,
determined by for example demographic,
socio-economic and technological trends
• Future highly uncertain
• Scenarios alternative views of the future,
the likelihood that any particular will
happen is highly uncertain
SRES (overview)
Economic
A1
FI
B
T
A2
Global
Regional
B1
B2
Environmental
HS – Harmonized
assumptions on global
population, gross world
product, energy
OS scenarios explore
uncertainties beyond HS
Projected concentrations of CO2 during the 21st
century are two to four times the pre-industrial level
SRES overview
Global CO2 emissions related to energy & industry from
1900-1990 and for the 40 SRES scenarios 1990-2100
shown as an index related to 1990 (1)
Climate Change Scenarios –
Anomaly 2091-2100 (A2)
Temperature
Precipitation
IPCC fifth assessment report
2013/2014
•
•
•
•
First: 1990
Second : 1995
Third: 2001
Fourth: 2007
IPCC fifth assessment report
2013/2014
• WG I: Physical Science basis (September 2013)
• WG II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (March
2014)
• WG III: Mitigation of Climate Change (April 2014)
• AR5 Synthesis report (SYR) October 2014
Ca. 9200 peer-reviewed studies are involved
in this report
NOT emission scenarios like in the 4th report
Representative Concentration Pathways
RCP
Representative Concentration Pathways
4 greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions!),
named after a possible range of radiative forcing values in 2100
(+2.6, +4.5, +6.0, +8.5 Wm-2)
Message; AIM; MiniCAM; IMAGE
www.climatechange2013.org
www.wikimedia.org
www.climatechange2013.org
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www.pik-potsdam.de
www.easterbrook.ca
IMPACTS – fingerprints of climate
change - EVIDENCE
• Range shifts
• Phenology changes
Environmental controls on
ranges
Niche
• A species niche represents all components of
the environment, both abiotic and biotic to which
a species is adapted.
• It includes:
– it habitat – where it is found
– the role of species in relation to other species
• Plants have functional roles in relation to other
plants – how resources are utilised, timing of
activity e.g. flowering, phenology, use of light
and soil
Niche
• Fundamental niche – A species
physiological tolerances and adaptations
to the physical environment.
• Realised niche – the actual part of the
fundamental niche occupied – a species
may be excluded from parts of its
fundamental niche by competition from
other species.
Species respond to a number of environmental controls
The evidence from pollen records
Example of smoky
mountain
Species distributed along environmental gradients: elevation
Mesic sites
Whittaker 1956
Species distributed along environmental gradients: elevation
Mesic sites
Whittaker 1956
Species distributed along environmental gradients: elevation
Xeric sites
Whittaker 1956
A global change-induced shift in the Montseny mountains (NE Spain)
GCB (2003) Penuelas & Boada
A global change-induced shift in the Montseny mountains (NE Spain)
GCB (2003) Penuelas & Boada
A global change-induced shift in the Montseny mountains (NE Spain)
GCB (2003) Penuelas & Boada
A changing climate is eroding the
geographical range of the Namib Desert
tree Aloe through population declines
and dispersal lags
Foden et al. (2007)
Regional warming and water
balance contraints have
population level impacts:Equatorward populations decline
due to climate; poleward
populations positive growth
trends) but no poleward range
expansion in areas predicted to
become suitable i.e a dispersal lag
31S 19E
1904
2002
Population increase 0.76%/yr
1918
29S 22E
2002
Population decrease - 0.85%/yr
A changing climate is eroding the
geographical range of the Namib Desert
tree Aloe through population declines
and dispersal lags
Foden et al. (2007)
An ecological foot print of climate change
Birger & Sykes 2005
Comparing field data
through 50 years on the
spread of Holly into
southern Sweden, results
compare well to model
predictions
www.wikipedia.org
An ecological foot print of climate change
Birger & Sykes 2005
50 yrs
ago
Former range (dark)
STASH modelled former range
0C isoline
An ecological foot print of climate change
Birger & Sykes 2005
present
Movement of 0C isoline
0C isoline
Includes moderate
climate (now?)
change and new
occurrences
Rapid response of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habiata
change
Warren et al. (2001)
Silver studded
blue
Black = present 1970-82
& 1995-1999
Green – extinctions present 1970-82 NOT
1995-1999
Pink – colonisation - not
present 1970-1982
present 1995-1999
Speckled
wood
Comma
Rapid response of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habiata
change
Warren et al. (2001)
Silver studded
blue
Black = climate OK,
butterfly present
Grey = climate
unsuitable, butterfly
absent
Red = climate predicted
suitable, butterfly absent
Blue = butterfly present
and climate thought
Unsuitable
Speckled
wood
Comma
IMPACTS – fingerprints of climate
change – EVIDENCE
• Range shifts
• Phenology changes
• Phenology changes
• – e.g. earlier budburst
earlier flowering times
earlier appearance of
butterflies
earlier breeding in birds and
amphibians
earlier arrival of migrating birds
www.usanpn.org
www.usanpn.org
www.usanpn.org
Lilac shrup phenophase
In at least 3 locations on the plant, a
breaking leaf bud is visible. A leaf bud is
considered ’breaking’ once the widest part
of the emerging leaf has grown beyonde
the ends of its opening winter bud scales,
but before it has fully emerged to expose
the leaf base.
For the whole plant, the widest part of the
leaf has emerged from virtually all (> 95%)
of the actively growing leaf buds.
Surfing on the green wave
Van der Graaf (2006)
Surfing on the green wave
Van der Graaf (2006)
Median laying date
First laying date
First arrival date
Time between first
arrival and first laying
egg
Corresponding mean
daily temperature in
Grad Celsius
Science 2002, 296: 1687-1689
Using LPJ-DGVM eccosystem model
Flucht et al. (2002)
Earlier budburst
(greening up) trend since
1980
- from satellite and LPJ
(driven by climate and
CO2 observations)
Monthly boreal zone anomalies of LAI from the AVHRR satellite time series and simulated with LPJ-DGVM. Due to
the low solar angle and snow cover during winter, only growing season anomalies (May to October)were evaluated.
Dotted vertical line indicates time of Pinatubo event
Flucht et al. (2002)
1.
Increasing trend in annual
maximum LAI 1982-1991 a
decline 1991-1992 and a resumed
increase 1992-1998
2.
Advance in Spring burst by some
days and delay of autumn onset
(NB: model predicts end of
carbon assimilation and satellite
gives leaf drop)
Relative changes in boreal zone timing of spring green-up and autumn senescene, and anomalies of maximual LAI,
from the satellite (blue) and simulated with LPJ (red). LPJ simulation with constant CO2, precipitation and
cloudiness (1965 and 1995) but variable observed temperatures (dashed line).
Drivers
•
•
•
•
•
Nitrogen deposition
Direct effects of CO2
Climate
Land use
Invasive species
Changes in land cover since
1750
Natural Vegetation
Cropland
Pasture and rangelands
Foley et al. (2005)
Changes since 1750
• In 1750 7.9-9.2 Mkm2 (6-7% of global land
surface) under cultivation/pasture
• By 1990 croplands and pasture covered 46-51
Mkm2 (35-39% of global land surface).
• Forest cover decreased by 11 Mkm2
• After mid 20th Century land abandonment in
Europe and N. America leading to reforestation
– but deforestation progressing in tropics
• What does it mean for albedo and RF
Projected changes in Land use types in 2050 based on Corine 2000
a) Natural_A2
b) Forest A2
c) Pastures A2
d) Crop_A2
e) Urban A2
Data from Verburg et al. 2011
Land use change
Current European landuse
Potential natural
forest (PNF)
Natural forest
Urban
areas
Pasture
areas
Crop areas
Non natural forests
(Lehsten, D. et al. in prep)
Estimates of forest area, contribution to CO2, change in Radiative forcing due to land
use change, changes in albedo relative to pre-industrial (different estimates).
Changes in RF spatially variable – some areas no change others large changes in major
agricultural areas of NA and Eurasia
The local RF depends on local albedo changes for example what sort of the PNV is
being replaced by agriculture
RF: radial forcing
NB aerosols can influence this
PNV: potential natural vegetation
Estimates of forest area, contribution to CO2, change in RF due to land use change,
changes in albedo relative to pre-industrial (different estimates).
Changes in RF spatially variable – some areas no change others large changes in major
agricultural areas of NA and Eurasia
The local RF depends on local albedo changes for example what sort of the PNV is
being replaced by agriculture
RF: radial forcing
NB aerosols can influence this
PNV: potential natural vegetation
Uncertainties
• In the mapping and characterisation of presentday vegetation
• In the mapping and characterisation of reference
historical state
• In the parametrization of the surface radiation
processes (can be modelled or prescribed)
• In other parts of the model if climate models
used to estimate RF – simulation of snow cover,
cloud cover
Other effects of anthropogenic
changes in land cover
• On emissions of CO2, CH4, biomass
burning aerosols, dust aerosols
• Nutrient limitations to carbon sequestration
(soil N)
• Effect of CO2 on climate via plant
physiology – physiological forcing
Land to atmosphere emissions resulting from land use change in 1990s and 1980s
(GtC yr-1) Values explicitly include accumulation of carbon due to re-growth
The degradation of traditional landscape in a mountain area
of Tuscany during the 19th and 20th centuries: Implications
for biodiversity and sustainable management. Agnoletti, M.
FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT 249 (1-2): 5-17 SEP 25 2007
The results show that since 1832 there has been a
decrease in landscape diversity in terms of
landscape patches (-86%) and land uses (-76%)
as well as a related reduction in biodiversity. The
process is linked to the abandonment of
traditional farming and forest activities such as
management of chestnut orchards, and the
increase in woodland cover, from 30% to 77%, on
abandoned fields and pastures, reducing the
complexity of the previous landscape mosaic.
1832
1981
2002
Changing traditional landscapes
Agricultural
intensification leads to a
decline of farmland
biodiversity, cessation
of pasture and increased
reforestation reduces
availability of habitats.
Deforestation
www.telegraph.co.uk
www.global.greenhouse-warming.com
Forest service
• Soil development (litter and humus)
– Reach in organic material
• Buffer for precipitation
– On the vegetation
– In the soil
www.varbak.com
Forest service
• Creation of micro climate
– Warm spring soil temperatures
– Cooler summer temperatures
– Radiation reflection on canopy
www.ecofriends.com
www.dlist.asclme.org
www.china.org.cn
Mayan civilization collapse
www.smithsonianmag.com
Reserve in Mexico – hotspot of biodiversity.
Mosaic of different forest types – 2000 species of vascular plant and 97 spp of mammals
Used three maps from 1986,1995, 2000 to assess rates and trends in 7 land cover types (agriculture/pasture, 4 secondgrowth forest, 2 mature forest)
Results show a rapid net loss of primary and secondary forests due to increasing agriculture/pasture
Results of modelling show that
between 29% and 86% of remaining
forest may be lost within the next
23 years –
Secondary growth forest is
particularly vulnerable
Results of modelling show that
between 29% and 86% of remaining
forest may be lost within the next
23 years –
Secondary growth forest is
particularly vulnerable
Drivers
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•
•
•
•
Nitrogen deposition
Direct effects of CO2
Climate
Land use
Invasive species
Anomaly (grad Celsius) relative to 1961-1990
Observed globally average combined land and ocean surface
temperature anomaly 1850-2012
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