APPSTORES ARE DEAD_Seifert

Text by Caroline Seifert
APPSTORES
ARE DEAD
In the beginning, they were wonderful,
but soon no one will need them.
Because we won‘ t look for apps
They will find us
It Just doesn´t end. Every day, 600,000 websites are created, 144,000 hours of video are
uploaded to Youtube alone, a half a billion Tweets are sent and more than six billion searches
are performed. This is an incomprehensible amount of information – a lot of wonderful
opportunities, certainly, but more and more, it feels like you‘re losing track of them.
The good news: We are regaining control of our data floods. And the start of this development is
the end of the app stores.
The app was the invention that made the Internet mobile. They became the focal point of the
smartphone era, and today we can hardly imagine life without them as companions and problem
solvers in our lives. But something has happened: In the very beginning of the spring of 2008, there
were only 500. Today, 10,000 new apps are added each month. The app stores try to manage the
quantity by developing new rankings and highlight lists, but: The sense of ease from days past
doesn‘t return. The principle of the app store has passed its zenith, or more drastically stated:
Appstores
are dead.
In the medium-term at least, because in a few years they won‘t play a role at all anymore.
Today, we can hardly imagine that, but in principle, it is a logical consequence of the upcoming
developments: For one, the already mentioned volume of information which will continue to
grow more rapidly. Unesco estimates that its volume will double every 73 days in 2020. What
this means is made clear by another number: Even today, according to an SAP study, 40 percent
of professional computer use is made up of Internet, mail or server searches.
It is therefore no surprise that more than half of all apps have never been downloaded once. Not
necessarily because they are bad. But because they get lost in the crowd and simply can‘t be found. One
example: In February, Secret went online, an app for airing secrets. Secret itself is completely irrelevant
at this point, but what is interesting is the actual placement in the app store launch. If you wanted to
download Secret, you had to work for it: 107 (!) swipes were needed until what you were actually looking
for appeared on the screen. The 106 swipes before that: not what you were looking for.
Overloads like this and the nearly unlimited networking of knowledge require a new concept for
selecting content. One that offers relevant and meaningful solutions instead of -static offers for the
sale of individual applications. But – what is meaningful?
The key is context. No one uses a navigation app at home on the sofa or a cookbook in the car. And
why can‘t you buy a soundtrack with one click right when the music in a movie makes you cry?
Finding instead of searching is the paradigm. A method suitable for daily use for how
information around us can find us, not only has to take the time and place at which it was
queried into account. It also has to consider the people making the query and that person‘s
emotions. Context is the driver for the conceptualization. The architecture of an app store can‘t
provide that.
In addition, our systems are growing more and more intelligent, and the boundary between the
analog and digital worlds is becoming more and more blurry.
Technology is becoming ambiance, which means we will perceive it less and less because it will
simply surround us. Cars that keep their distance from each other on their own.
Heaters that shut off autonomously to save energy. Clothing that measures our vital functions –
these may all be pilot projects right now, but they are just about to make a breakthrough.
The Internet of things has begun.
But what exactly does that mean?
Devices automatically adapt to people. Output surfaces supply us with the relevant information
and services. Today, we still use wearables like glasses, watches, fitness armbands, etc. which
allow direct access to the Internet and functions.
Tomorrow, everything will be the Internet: lamps, coffee machines, bus stops, shoes,
advertisements. But if everything is networked, app stores aren‘t necessary. Regardless of where
I go, the apps are basically already there. The applications span from the network to the things
in our environment, so searching for them will become as superfluous as downloading them. I
hold my cell phone up to the Depeche Mode poster at the bus stop and I‘ve already purchased
the concert tickets. The classical search is gone and the respective need is the focus.
Even today, browsers allow programs to be used without installation. And more and more
services make it possible to access offers without purchasing them individually. The principle
„Use do not own“ is particularly currently changing the way we consume music and films. But at
the same time, the use for a period of time is starting in driving and trades. In the future, „Use
do not own“ will expand to many more areas of our lives. Actual ownership is losing meaning on
the Internet, networks will permanently change based on need. In 2020, according to the IT branch
service provider Gartner, there are already 26 billion things that are networked together and with us.
The basis for this is a network with completely open interfaces. Because we will only experience
this kind of digital freedom when everything is networked with everything else. Situations
in which I have to do without apps just because I switch cell phones like we have today will
no longer exist. Multi-modal usability, new technologies such as 4D printing which allows the
production of objects that change their shape depending on the need and can be reconstituted and
many more things will make a contribution. A kit for the options that allows all forms of customization.
Instead of a localized network, we need one that has as many centers as there are users. Mass
production was the start of the Industrial Revolution, then mass modularization followed.
Mass personalization is the next step. We will no longer go online; online will come to us. If I am
watching the movie „Salmon Fishing in the Yemen“, I can immediately buy the lead actresses shoes,
book a trip to Yemen, find fish recipes or order salmon. If I want to. And the system is intelligent
enough to only offer me the options that make sense in my situation and correspond to my disposition.
Why? Because things will think too. It would be so nice if the windshield would thaw in the winter
before I get in the car. And when I come into the office, I don‘t have to worry about the projector
showing incoming private messages on the wall when I use my cell phone for a presentation. Because it
recognizes the context and blocks private items.
Even if it seems odd from today‘s perspective, things will talk to us in this manner.
Science fiction author Douglas Adams wrote a wonderful sentence in „Starship Titanic“: „Ladies and
Gentlemen – and Things“.We haven‘t come that far yet, but we are headed in
that direction. It is a direction toward the principle goal of writing the first binary code: the digital flow,
that Utopian state in which technology finally automatically offers what we need and we no longer
have to adapt to it. Because when things start talking to us and each other, interfaces will no longer be
necessary. The best interface is no interface. And the best technology is technology we don‘t see.
Like almost every groundbreaking innovation, the idea that my lamp, my clothing, all of my
possessions will have their own life, is met with reluctance and skepticism. But in the end, we can‘t
comprehend the benefit and relevance has always triggered change. Different accounts, logins,
passwords – none of this will exist anymore. We will only have our ID, our digital „me“, which will
provide the network with all of the information about us and receive the approvals from us which
it requires to contact us and which we want to grant it. Because complete sovereignty over our
ID is the fundamental requirement for the digital flow. That may sound more Utopian now than
ever before. But we will not fail when it comes to data protection. We shouldn‘t underestimate the
Internet‘s ability to self heal and the maelstrom of innovation, change and disruption …
… and we can slowly say
goodbye to app stores.
Caroline Seifert
As Senior Vice President of Deutsche Telekom,
Seifert has significantly influenced the design of the company.
She has worked in the telecommunications branch for 30 years, and today she deals with
topics such as customer experience and simplicity in a networked world.
She holds several patents and design awards.
Illustrations by Mark T. Drexler