RANT_2011_Breeders` Cup - Post Time Solutions, Inc.

Transcription

Michael Pizzolla’s
2011 Breeders’ Cup
ValueCapping™ Rant
Copyright ©2011 By Michael Pizzolla. All Rights Reserved www.posttimedaily.com
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From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla
Las Vegas, Nevada
November 1, 2011
6:57 PM
Dear ValueCapper and Friend:
I’m still on a high.
About 100 remarkable, dedicated and supportive ValueCappers got
together in Las Vegas the weekend of October 14th for ValueCapping
Academy. It was my 25th anniversary seminar. (Eliot had Prufrock say: “I
grow old, I grow old, I shall wear the bottoms of my trousers rolled...”
and part of me, still recuperating, understands)
There was something very different about this seminar.
My stated outcome for ValueCapping Academy was to transform any
vestige of the conventional, ‘picking winners’, handicapper to a fullfledged, profit-making ValueCapper. That is, someone who is interested
in the investment potential of the game.
I’m frankly floored at the reports from the attendees and the results they
have been producing after the seminar, and that’s why I’m still flying
high. If I were to begin to tell you the prices on the horses and exotics
that have been reported on the Wizards’ Forum, it would sound too
fantastic to believe.
One wizard, who has been investing in the horses for 44 years had 6
winners in his first 16 bets after ValueCapping Academy, with mutuels of
$16, $20, $22, $24, $28, and $40, to put them in order of low to high.
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Another wizard had the light bulb go on in a big way about staying out
of messy races, and looking very carefully for ‘Anti Value’ factors in the
short priced horses. This is like playing against a weaker poker player;
picking a fight against a weaker opponent.
He wrote me about some of his scores, a number of very solid priced
horses, some bomb longs shots and very generous exactas (to quote
from his email: “10-23: Woodbine 9 - $127.60 exacta 10-24:
Thistledown 1 - $243.40 exacta 10-27: Calder 3 - $183 exacta”).
What excited me more than these remarkable results, though, was the
transformation that occurred. One of the things I emphasized at the
seminar was that this game is not the player against the race, but the
player against the public. That’s a very big shift in outlook for the vast
majority of horseplayers.
I could go on about the results (a very sharp wizard posted about a 5
figure score-just over $14,000 in one race-he made just yesterday,
October, this a continuation of the tear he’s been on since ValueCapping
Academy).
The process of preparing for, and presenting the seminar has left me a
bit spent, golf deprived (haven’t played in almost 2 months), but very
gratified and very grateful to see the transformations and the big scores,
most of all to have a group of some of the finest people I’ve ever met in
any field of endeavor with whom to explore the game we love.
I’ve been smiling inside for two weeks.
The transformation came about NOT because of any ‘secret sauce’ but
more from appreciating that although Black Magic: The Ultimate
Handicapper Software™ is a complex solution to a complex problem,
the process of ValueCapping makes the application of this solution very
simple, very clear, very obvious.
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As an example of how simple the process can be here’s a race I saw
when I opened the races from October 28th.
In the fifth race at Monmouth, Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper
Software™ showed me this:
That red line is the ‘random line’. Let me explain, because my analysis
of the Breeders’ Cup races will refer to that.
There were 8 horses in this race. The random odds of one of those
horses winning the race is 7-1: One possibility of picking a winner out
of a hat, 7 possibilities of picking a non-winner.
That line separates the horses ABOVE 7-1 from the horses BELOW 7-1.
Right at the top of the line is a horse called Shotgun Eddie L.
Just as importantly, though, is the fact that we can EXPECT this horse to
be an overlay. How do we know? Look at this:
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Although the computed BLAM Odds on the horse are 9/2, that middle
odds line is the Contention Line, unique I believe to my work, which
approximates what the public SHOULD do based on conventional
handicapping. The next line over is the Morning Line of 20-1.
The disparity between the 9/2 and the 14-1 is a way of saying in
numbers that it’s a horse that has some things going for it that the public
SHOULD NOT like. In other words, an anticipated overlay.
Now, anyone experienced at reading the racing form would know this at
a glance.
In fact, many conventional handicappers would not touch this horse.
Here’s why:
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In its last two races, the horse got beaten 12 and a half lengths, and the
race before that it walked off. Yet, it had trouble in the last race, and the
race before was after a layoff and at a higher level.
So, BLAM went back to see what this horse had in the tank, and took
some numbers from Tampa.
Doing all of this handicapping by hand and by eye is an enormous
undertaking, and that’s where a solution like Black Magic: The Ultimate
Handicapper Software™ comes to the rescue.
Of course, it won’t be right all the time, the races are inherently
unpredictable, but it will point to potential value investments.
With this horse, if you cover its last two races, it would be a favorite in
the race.
So, the whole question becomes, are the last two races indicative of a
horse gone bad, or were the poor races because of trouble in the last
race, and not being ready after the layoff in the second back?
Here’s something I want you to remember:
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Before the race, nobody knows. Sure, the trainer can guess, the owner
can guess, but nobody knows for sure.
If you look for certainty, you’ll get confused and frustrated. There’s just
no way to know for certain, and asking your mind over and over, or
poring over arcane statistics or whatever other conventional
handicapping tools you may use, just adds to the confusion.
Here’s the way I recommend answering the question:
You know the horse has some merits: It has back numbers that are very
competitive in the field. BLAM has indicated (you can see this by eye)
that the last two races may not be a true indication of the horse’s
condition, even though its form is poor.
The answer comes from price. At 3-1, I’m taking the position that the
horse is a dead piece. At 30-1, I’m taking the position that the excuses
are legitimate.
You see, it’s not JUST based on price, the horse has back numbers that
make it very competitive in this field. The price on this horse will
indicate whether there is VALUE in taking that risk.
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At almost 30-1, I had my answer. And although I keyed it to the other
horses above random in exactas, I also used the exacta as a place bet,
key boxing this horse with all the others in the race.
Each of those $1 tickets was worth $279.30, as the exacta paid $558.60
for $2.
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You know they all don’t work out like this, and I bet plenty of horses like
this that run up the track. But how many of these $60 horses do you
need to show a positive ROI?
Not many.
If you’re interested in profits rather than being ‘right’ about the races, or
predicting the outcome, or picking winners, you’ll understand.
And you don’t need to be chasing only long priced horses. There are
plenty of mid-priced horses that really help the bottom line.
The next day, October 29th, there was a race at Woodbine that looked
like this:
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The top two horses had flaws-Anti Value factors-and the odds line was
very close: 7/2, 7/2, 4-1, 9/2. The 2 horse at 4-1 had that tipoff of the
anticipated overlay, as its odds were 4-1 on the BLAM line, but 8-1 on
the Contention Line. It also had patterns going for it and was a reverser
to the 1 horse, which was also the Fulcrum.
A very easy bet to make, and the exacta structure was simple as well: an
exacta box and a straight exacta looking to get a good exacta if the
Reversal race reversed.
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As you see, the exacta came in with the two horses from that Reversal
reversing. What I want to emphasize is that there was no deep analysis,
or tricky handicapping involved.
What ValueCapping Academy was all about was a systematic procedure
for wading through all of the handicapping factors in a simple way that
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points out the best of the best value plays. The progress those in
attendance have made in the past few weeks excites me way more than
any winning bet could.
So, if you haven’t heard, this weekend features the Breeders’ Cup.
In the past, I’ve indulged the part of me that’s a big fan of the races and
taken a lot of shaky plays on Breeders’ Cup day. To a certain extent,
there was some sense in that. There’s a lot of ‘amateur’ money on these
Breeders’ Cup days.
Even so, there must be value to invest. And very often, there’s just no
value in these races. Sure, there’s plenty of prices, but please remember
this:
PRICE does not necessarily mean VALUE.
There will be loads of prices in the Breeders’ Cup races. With big fields
of competitive horses, dozens of foreign horses, 20, 30, and 50 to 1
shots will abound.
The thing is, these races, like the Kentucky Derby, tend to be very messy,
with many unknowns and much uncertainty.
It’s no different this year.
As in years past, I recommend paying close attention to the races at
other tracks, to the modest claiming races at some of the ‘minor’ tracks.
Here’s why.
That ‘amateur’ money that comes out on big days finds its way via
simulcasting into those pools. And when they are wrong about a
pathetic favorite in one of those races, it can make for a nice payday.
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Also, please remember that what I want to share with you is my
analysis, the thinking process, not ‘picks’. I usually don’t know what
will happen in the races in which I invest. That’s the reality of the game.
Since I’m a value player, I cash less races than I miss, but the cashes
more than make up for the losing tickets. What I can’t control is when
those good value plays will show up. And I’m not arrogant enough to
think they will show up just because I want to ‘play the races’ on
Breeders’ Cup.
What follows is my preliminary work on the races for the Friday and
Saturday of Breeders’ Cup 2011. First, I’ll take you through my thoughts
on the races in which I think I can find some good value investments, at
whatever tracks. And then I’ll take you through the rest of the Breeders’
Cup races for that day. I’m writing this well in advance, so I don’t have
all of the final files, except for Breeders’ Cup, and a smattering of other
tracks.
Again, this is meant to be an instructive exercise, not an exercise in
‘picking winners’. I hope you’ll get something out of the thought process
that goes into creating value investments.
Races for Friday, November 4, 2011
Churchill Downs Race 5 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint
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Not a race I’m turning cartwheels over, but a relatively clear potential
value play. There are 5 horses above random, and at the top of the line is
the 8, Jake Mo. 7/2 on the Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper
Software™ line, 10-1 Contention, 20-1 Morning Line.
There’s one question: Will the Remington and Prairie Meadows numbers
translate? If so, this horse is a threat. If not, right below the 8 are the
favorites, the 6, Secret Circle, and the 1, 4, and 9.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see Jake Mo pull an upset, or finish right in
front of the tractors.
One interesting thing: This race looks to have a lot of pressure. Jake Mo
is a relatively early horse, yet in spite of that, BLAM puts it on top, even
after biasing the numbers to favor the late numbers. And the CD Track
Profile for 6 furlongs is trending a bit early.
Penn National Race 9 November 4, 2011
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One of the ugliest races you’re ever likely to see. At the top of the Black
Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software™ line are the morning line
favorites, the 1 and the 5. Not thrilled about the drop in class by the 5,
and I don’t care for short priced horses soundly beaten.
This leads us to a horse tied with the 1 and 5 at the top of the line, the 2,
Noblette. 7/2 on the BLAM line, 20-1 Contention, 10-1 Morning Line.
This is a race without a lot of speed. The 2, Noblette, came off a layoff to
flash speed last time, and earned a second call, Primary Pace, rating that
is very large in this field. At a solid price, may be a decent value
investment. Don’t have a solid feel about the exotics (except that I’ll use
the 3, the First Time Starter), but this could be a simple win investment.
Mountaineer Race 8 November 4, 2011
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Tied at the top of the Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper
Software™ line are the 3, the 9/5 Morning Line favorite, and the 4, Long
Range Missile. 4-1 BLAM Odds, 8-1 Contention Line, and 6-1 Morning
Line.
After two hard fought wire to wire wins, where this 4 horse was hard
pressed all around the track, it showed speed again last race, again very
hard pressed for two calls, and then stopped and finished dead last.
Today, it may be able to get a lead, and at a solid 6 or 7 to 1, I’d take an
investment on this animal.
The rest of the Breeders’ Cup Races for Friday, November 4, 2011:
Churchill Downs Race 6, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Nine-yes nine-fillies above random, 3 foreign horses, a real mess. Top of
the BLAM line is the 4, Stopshoppingmaria, 6-1 BLAM line, 9-1
Contention, 8-1 Morning Line. Still way too much going on and too
many questions for my taste.
Churchill Downs Race 7 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
‘Only’ 8 horses above random. The line starts at 8-1. It’s a Highly
Pressured race, with 4 AccuPressureV2 closers.
Again, a mess. At the top of the line are two 20-1 Morning Line fillies,
the 10, Tamarind Hall, and the 5 Musical Romance. Right below them
are the Morning Line favorites, the 3, Turbulent Descent, and the 6,
Switch.
The race is not one I’d see an investment in on a normal day, but
‘because it’s Breeders’ Cup’, I might take a very small exacta box, also
using the 9, Golden Mystery.
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Churchill Downs Race 8 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
Top of the Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software™ line is
the 9, My Miss Aurelia, the 5/2 Morning Line favorite. She just romped
in the Frizette, and I see no reason to bet her or bet against her. Right
below her are the 11, Weemissfrankie, and the 2, Candrea, fillies that
should also be bet. Just don’t see value here.
Churchill Downs Race 9 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf
Mile and three eights on the Turf with 7 horses above random, and three
foreign entries with no US numbers. Can’t pass this race fast enough.
Churchill Downs Race 10 Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic
the 8, Plum Pretty, a filly BLAM nailed in the Oaks in May. Top of the
line, Fulcrum, and Morning Line favorite. I don’t see a good reason to
bet against her, and no value in betting her. Right below Plum Pretty on
the BLAM line is the 3, It’s Tricky, that ran second against Plum Pretty
last out. They could reverse, but I don’t see the 3-8 paying enough to
warrant the risk. Adding to the hesitancy is the fact that the second
Morning Line favorite, the 6, Royal Delta is below the random line, and
I don’t have reliable numbers for the Alabama which Royal Delta won
going away in August.
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Saturday, November 5, 2011
Parx Race 3 November 5, 2011
the 5, Quail Hollow. 6-1 Morning Line, but the Contention Line, which
attempts to see what the public will do, is only 2-1. We’ll see from the
board. This is one I’d take at 5-1. Coming from Penn, its last race looks
abysmal, but the second back is a nice wire to wire win, and could be
doing the same today.
Interesting horse in the exotics is the 2, 2nd on the BLAM line, a
Reverser, flashed some early second back. If they bet out on the 5, I’ll
take this horse at a good price. The Reversal winner, the 3, is the
Morning Line favorite below the line, a danger sign, could work its way
into the exotics.
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Parx Race 5 November 5, 2011
A very weak Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software™ odds
line: 5-1, 6-1, 6-1, 8-1, 10-1.
Second on the line is the 10, Brian Boru, Reversal horse to the 3, third
start after a layoff, 8-1 on both the Morning Line and the Contention
Line. Again, will need a very solid price to invest.
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Churchill Race 7 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
the 5, Wilburn. At 4-1 Morning Line, and 8/5 Contention, I doubt if
there will be a price here.
The rest of the above random horses include two favorites, the 9 and the
1, and two long prices, the 3, Tapizar and the 7, Jersey Town.
Again, don’t think I’ll get a 5-1 or so price on the 5, Wilburn, so this
may be a pass race. I’d like to get involved with the 3 and 7, but have no
compelling reason to go by the 5, no compelling reason to bet against
the 1 and 9, no great ‘extras’ on the 3 and 7.
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Zia Park Race 11 November 5, 2011
The top horse of the Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software™
line is the 5, Imco Spirit. Hasn’t run since September 11, so there’s
always a chance it won’t run that well. I’m a little interested in the
second horse on the line, the 3, Vamoose. 7/2 on the BLAM line, 10-1
Contention, and 12-1 Morning Line.
It gets a big boost from a Ruidoso line, but excluding that line still puts
the horse above random. I’ll take it at a strong price. It’s a Reverser, so
I’ll use the Reversal Winner, the 2, in a box and a straight exacta 3-2,
and also look at the payoffs with the 3 and the others, perhaps using the
exacta as a place bet.
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Churchill Race 11 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Marquee race, 8 horses above random. The line looks like this: 7-1, 7-1,
7-1, 8-1, 9-1, 12-1, 12-1, 12-1.
Third and fourth on the line are the two favorites, the 10, Harve de
Grace, and the 12, Uncle Mo.
I’ll use those in exotics to cover, but will focus on the two horses above
them, the 13, To Honor and Serve, Fulcrum and Reversal Winner, and
the 4, Ruler On Ice, the horse that finished second to the 13 in the
Pennsylvania Derby. That will compel me to use the 7, Rattlesnake
Bridge, who also came out of that race, and is at 9-1 on the BLAM line,
right above the break down to 12-1.
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Could be a nice little 5 horse tri/super box, but for speculators only. Will
definitely have a 4-13-7 exacta box, and a 4-13 box and straight
exactas, using the favorites as savers.
The rest of the Breeders’ Cup Races for Saturday, November 5, 2011:
Churchill Race 3 Breeders’ Cup Marathon
14 furlong race, 3 unknowns, no thanks. The 10, Eldaafer, is at the top of
the BLAM line, but it’s a very iffy race.
Churchill Race 4 Breeders Cup Juvenile
8 colts above random, meaning a very confusing race. There are 3
foreign horses to boot, on a normal day, I wouldn’t give this race a
second glance.
Having said that, the 8, Majestic City is at the top of the line, but had a
very hard race last time. Second on the line is the 15, Tequila Factor. 6-1
on the BLAM Line, 14-1 Contention, 30-1 Morning Line. Gets a huge
number from its last race, a mile on the turf at Retama. If that number
translates, it’s a danger here. If not, it’s an also ran.
Would only use bombs in a pure action race, the 1, Gung Ho, who ran
with the 8 last time, 30-1 ML, the 11, 3rd on the line, 30-1 ML, the 9,
Daddy Knows Best, another 30-1 ML shot above random, and the 6 is
the 15-1 ML Fulcrum.
Again, a normal day this is a pass race for me, I might try to take down a
big one with a minimal exotics.
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Churchill Race 5 Breeders Cup Sprint
6 of the 9 horses are above random, favorites near the top, no thanks.
The 5, Jackson Bend, has an enormous internal fraction from the
Belmont mile last time in the Kelso, is a deep closer in a race packed
with speed, but at 3-1 Contention and 7/2 Morning Line, don’t see a
value investment here.
Churchill Race 6, Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint.
Again, 9 horses above random, no thanks. If I were looking to speculate,
I’d look at the 5, Great Attack, second on the BLAM line, a Reverser with
the Fulcrum, the 6, California Flag. Being a Fulcrum and Reversal
Winner means the 6 would normally be a threat to place, but with such
a large field, and so many horses in contention, it’s a risk. Would also
look to the 9 in the exotics, 4th on the line (but 11-1 on the BLAM line,
meaning if they ran the race a dozen times, this would win once), a
Reverser that showed speed after a layoff. Complete the tri with the 12,
third on the line.
Or pass, which is a real option.
Churchill Race 8 Breeders’ Cup Turf
A mile and a half on the turf, more than half the field foreign horses, no
thanks.
Churchill Race 9 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
6 horses above random. Top of the line is the 10, Union Rags, the
favorite. Big win in the Champagne, see no reason to bet it, or bet
against it. There are other bombs in the above random colts, the 12, 1,
6, also above random are the 4 and 5, I’m finding no bet ‘making me’ at
this point.
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Churchill Race 10 Breeders’ Cup Mile
9 horses above random, 4 foreign horses, 3 with no numbers from the
US, no thanks.
Top of the line is the 3, Courageous Cat, laid off after a tough effort in
the Woodbine Mile. Second on the line is the 10, Sidney’s Candy, 7-1
on the line, 12-1 Contention, 15-1 Morning Line. If I were still into
‘futzing around’ I might take this as an ‘action’ bet.
Of course, there are weather conditions, scratches, etc. that can change
some of the specifics, but the basic approach will be the same: Find
horses you like that the public shouldn’t, and let the bet make you.
Again, I don’t have all of the final cards as I write this, so I haven’t done
all of that work, but remember to look for creating value in the other
couple of hundred races running on Friday and Saturday.
We’ve been very hard at work here at Post Time improving our data
center, and there will be some improvements coming very soon that will
make your experience even better. Even though we think, immodestly,
that we provide the best service in the industry, we’re always striving to
improve.
There’s a new complimentary update for those of you who have Black
Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software™ coming soon: If you’ve got
your update utility installed, it will show up automatically sometime in
the next week. This update provides an expanded notes field, so you can
write extensive notes about a race, and also a new indicator of a horse
in its Second Start Lifetime.
There’s another update that will be available with the DVDs of the
ValueCapping Academy that includes some game-changing portfolios.
With all the hours of ValueCapping Academy, theres a mind-bending
amount of post production that needs to be done to get the DVDs ready:
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That process is underway, and we’ll do our best to get them out as soon
as humanly possible.
Well, that’s it for this year’s Breeders’ Cup Rant.
I can’t thank you enough for all of your support and kind words.
Drop me a line at michael@posttimedaily.com if you have any questions
or to let me know how it’s going. As this is Breeders’ Cup weekend, it
may take a little bit to get back to you. You can see the latest goings-on
at Post Time by visiting www.posttimedaily.com
Good luck with Breeders’ Cup 2011 and always!
Remember to make the bet make you,
All the best,
Michael
P.S. I’ve recently entered the 21st Century and have a Twitter and
Facebook account. My name on both of those is, creatively, Michael
Pizzolla. There’s also a Post Time Solutions page on Facebook. You can
follow me if you’d like, get updates about the news at Post Time and in
horse racing, and potentially catch up with old and new friends.
I’ve also got a blog at www.handicappinghorseraces.com and at
www.posttimedata.com where I post stories about horse racing that’s
specifically applicable to ValueCapping. I’m not much of a web
designer, but I’m proud that I set these up on my own.
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RANT_2011_Breeders` Cup - Post Time Solutions, Inc.

Transcription

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