1 - SpaceArchitect.org

ILR Mitt. 306 (1996)
June 15,1996
A PRELIMINARY
CONCEPT
AND LIFE-CYCLE
ANALYSIS
OF A LUNAR SETI_EMENT
H.H.Koelle
Aerospace
Institute
Teclmical
University
Berlin
Marchstr.12
D-10587
!
I
|
I
III
I
I
i
i
Berlin
|
I
|
ABSTRACT
This
paper
offers
a concept
for
a
development
scenario
which
could
lead
to a
i
|
followed
by a 50 year growth
phase,
leading
to a population
of nearly
2000 people,
and a 25 year consolidation
phase
at that level.
The space transportation
system
supporting
this lunar
settlement
logistically
during
its entire
life-cycle
is a fully
reusable
heavy lift launch vehicle
of the NEIrI_'NE
class, transpoffating
of people
and cargo to a lunar orbit seroice station
, complemented
by
a lunar ferry
for the
local transportation
between
the lunar spaceport
and
the lunar orbit service
station.
i
I
l
!
!
!
i
i
i
I
I
I
I
I
I
lunar
settlement
by
life-cycle
is planned:
of a nucleus
lunar base
lunar
permanent
operational
occupancy
the end
of the 21st century.
A three-phase
a ten year
initial
phase,
leading
to beneficial
primarily
serving
as
a construction
camp, to be
The duty-cycle
anticipated
for the lunar crew members
early years growing
to about 2 years in the final years.
This report is comprised
of 25 tables,
2
figures
and 16
pages.
is about
references
6 months
on a total
in
of
the
24
l
i
I
I
I
I
i
i
i
I
I
!1
II
il
I
I
I
I
I
I
Table
of Contents
page
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Ground
3. Initial
1
Rules
and
Acquisition
3.1 Lunar
base
3.2 Logistics
Definitions
Phase
3
facilities
during
the
initial
4. The
Second
Development
4.1The
facilities
of the
4.2 The logistic
lunar
system
acquisition
Phase
supportiPg
of operatiuing
4.4 Cost
of operating
the logistic
Consolidation
P'_
5.1 Developrnent
5.2 The
logistic
6. Comparing)
and
the
system
_e of the
,_, - ,e lunar
supporting
the
no fLife-cyclePhases
during
operation
third
Settlement
8
requirements
phase
3uring
Lunar
Lunar
logistic
second
the luna_ settlement
trend
system
phase
of the
settlement
4.3 Cost
5. The
2
of the lunar
the second
the second
settlement
phase
phase
Settlement
during
phase
14
the
consolidation
of the lunar
phase
settlement
17
7.TheSystem-EffectivenessoftheLunarSettlement
21
8. Sunu_ar'yand
22
References
Conclusiops
24
i
i
I
I
i
I
!
g
|
I
i
i
!
I
g
I
I
I
I
I
List
Tables
and
Figures
Table 3.1: Summary
of the most important
state variables
of the
phase(page
3)
Table 3-2: Non-recurring
cost of lunar base
facilities
during
the
phase prior to beneficial
occupan_(p.4)
Table 3-3: Direct operating
cost of lunar laboratory(p.4)
Table 3-4: Characteristic
data of the logistic
support
LULAB(p.6)
Table 3-5: Non-recurrent
cost of the lunar transportation
Table 4-1: Projected
Lunar Settlement
growth(p.8)
of the
ten-year
LUL.\B
intitial
first
acquisition
10 years
of the
system(p.7)
Table 4-2: Growth
rates of mass inputs
and outputs
of the lunar settlement
the second phase(p.8)
Table 4-3: Performance
of the lunar settlement
during
the 2nd phase(p.9)
Table 4-4: Mass model of LUBUS passenger
2nd and 3rd phases of the life cycle (p.10)
and cargo
flights
as employed
Table 4-5: Maw balances
of lunar propellants
and imports(p.11)
Table 4-6: Overview
of annual
recurrent
costs of lunar
settlement
logistic cost at selected
years(p.12)
Table 4-7: Overview
selected
years during
Table
4-8: Overview
settlement(p.13)
Table
5-1: Projected
phase(p.14)
Table 5-2: Change
the consolidation
not
of a_mual recurrent
costs of the space transportation
the growth
phase of the kmar settlement(p.13)
of systems
cost during
the growth
phase
change
rates
rates of mass
phase(p.14)
of lunar
inputs
and
population
outputs
during
of the
the
lunar
Overview
of
lunar
facility
and
operation
of space transportation
costs during
operational
of life-cycle system cost(p.19)
of space transportation
cost including
lunar
Table
6-8: Overview
respectively
during
of space transportation
the life-cycle
of the lunar
excluding
of lunar
including
the
system
at
the
lunar
consolidation
and
during
phase(p.15)
during
during
Table 6-5: Overview
Table 6-6: Overview
Table
6-7: Overview
services(p.19)
":igure 6-2: Specific
cost of lunar
transportation
propellants
and lunar services
(p.20)
Table 7-1: Life-cycle
performance
and cost summary
model
2.0 of 1996(p21)
the
settlement
costs
costs per flight
settlement(p.20)
during
of
Table 5-3: Performance
of the lunar settlement
during
the consolidation
Table 6-1: Overview
of the development
of lunar populaticn(p.17)
Figure
6-1: Development
of scientific
personnel
and total population
operational
period(p.17)
Table 6-2: Overview
of masses processed(p.18)
Table 6-3: Overview
of flight numbers
and system efficiencies(p.lg)
Table
6-4:
phase(p.18)
during
the
operational
phase(p.18)
propellants
per
the
unit
cost
settlemee.t
and
payload
of
lunar
program
1.|ntroducfion
The
Earth
and
the
Moon
are
populated
and the resources
the benefit
of humankind.
can accomodate
comfortably.
a double
the Moon will have to be developed
Earth. Also, a situation
might
arise
lunar settlement
matter
of survival
it could
planning.
planning
The
appears
of our
of a lunar
published
a
base
to be opportune,
species.
While
and/or
detailed
Moon 3,4. The
continue
the
Regardless
development
plan
lunar
flights
exploration
time
after
transportation
a settlement
in
closing
system,
by
operation
space
COLLIER'S
been
explored,
of a catastrophe
to occur in the
a Lunar
Laboratory
enterprise.
than the Lunar
and a life-cycle
unidentified
concept
for
the
it is
- may be a
near future,
magazine
to return
system,
line
has
are
not been
now
put
received
to several
proposals
of its resourcesS-7,9,10.
SATURN
an
launch
annual
installations,
systemsl0,12.
It proposes
A few
the beginning
Settlement
have
to
vehicle
simulation
including
years
ago,
of
their
also
in
would
af developing
with a 50 year
to go ahead
even
a population
be a more
of more
the
logistics
a Japanese
plans on how to build a city on the
for the next step of lunar
development
on the Moon for the year 2016
to be the year of a decision
A Lunar
which
et al.
production.
allowing
lunar
has published
term proposals
Moon |1.
is to
a 100 person
life-cycle.
with
such
The year
a multi-
ambitious
project
than
people
1,000
life-cycle
of a lunar settlement
will go through
several
phases:
- beneficial
occupancy
- rapid
growth
- maturity
towards
the
century
- ahd
eventually
disbanding
or destruction
at an
point
in time in the
the first
four phases,
II
(1952)1
Braun
been
made 12-15, also the Russian
a useful
element
of a new
lunar
into
available
of complex
16.
yon
to the Moon is in any case the
since none
is available
at the
of the
evolution
including
of our civilization.
maturity,
leading
population
of about
2,000 people
will be analysed
think that studying
a lunar setllement
is premature,
required
to take the next step in the right direction!
Ill Ill
Wernher
public.
The launch
of the first satellite
by the
in 1959 to study in detail the construction
of a
even
before
the first
man
set foot an the
production
Laboratory.
It would
closer to a century.
It is likely that the
Initial development
end
of the
21st
new.
of the APOLLO
progcam
8 led
of the Moon
and utilization
transportation
company
lastest
near
Lunar Laboratory
2006 was assumed
national
but
codes
and
construction
One of the
is not
in this direction
have frequently
ENERGYA
could
have been
computer
acquisition
build
has
been
widely
developed
for
to the limit spaceship
Earth
of time, that the resources
of
or - in case
this is unlikely
how this may be done, the key
of a new space transportation
1969. Proposals
launch
vehicle
support
Earth
and utilized
to improve
the quality
of life on
on Earth
where
the urgent
development
of a
considerable
attention
in the general
Soviet Union
prompted
the US Army
lunar
base 2. Other
studies
followed
New
The
happen
any time thus a lunar settlement
is an interesting
case of emergency
If such
an emergency
should
arise
overnight,
the time
for careful
will not be available,
consequently
it should
be done in time.
idea
present
planet.
of this celestial
body have
The population
is growing
Thus it is only a question
A representative
to a stable
lunar
in this report.
Many
people
but a long range perspective
will
is
!
2.Ground
]'here
are
Rules
many
and
|
Definitions
approaches
to enter
a new
step
of
lunar
development,
but
those
to
be investigated
should
be based
on past experience
and on mature
technology
available
in the foreseeable
future
and not in the hope
of possible
breakthroughs.
Also, the present
social,
political
and economic
situation
on our planet
today
and
expected
in the future
must be taken into consideration
in structuring
the next steps
in the lmlar development
program,
after the int_tial exploratory
landings
have been
accomplished,
which
took place
in the sixties
and
early
seventies.
The option
recommended
as a result
of any
feasible at an acceptable
risk.
The
frame
of reference
selected
must
should
- a 50 year growth
phase to bring
- followed
by a 25 year saturation
be
technically
and
be based
up the lunar
phase,
in a 85 year operational
until
the year 2100.
|1 already
This might
undertaking
alternatives
near term
on
how
life-cycle
on the
first
population
which
10 years
to about
could
begin
In this analysi,%we
population:
- Permanent
children.
century
will
Settlers
city
may
based
distinguish
are
those
on
who
- Children
born on the Moon return
cycle at the age of about 1 year.
imports
The
lunar
delivered
products
Raw material,
oxygen,
other
like
from
for usage
construction
gases,
food
and
LULAB
year
|
I
2,000 people
in the
2016
and
material,
other
the
cycle,
but
for a short
single
stay
the parents
to the lunar
for
and
Moon
inhabitants.
for such an
more
modest
on
members
duty
materials
food).
to 10,000
insights
following
with
22nd century,
but it
has made
visionary
but the technology
we will
study
on
to Earth
on the Moon
up
to stay
of their
the Earth
spareparts,
water and
with
present
the
secide
- Visitors
are those to come to the Moon
witout
to return
to the Moon.
facilities,
equipment,
consumables
(perticularly
our
between
- Temporary_
Settlers
return
at the end
duty cycle after several
years on Earth.
The
look
goal for the year 2200,
in sight.
Consequently,
for the next
technology.
of the
I
a lunar
be a reasonable
is not yet
!
is as follows:
It is too early to speculate
about
a follow-on
program
for the
should
be mentioned
that a Japanese
construction
company
studies
economically
|
i
for this analysis
- The Initial
acqt,isition
phase
Model (3.0) 16 to t.e folluwcd
by
resulting
continued
analysis
I
employing
of the
including
may
return
of a month
at the
settlement
end
lunar
their
for a new
gases,
!
!
I
!
or less
of the duty
I
i
include:
production,
I
supplies,
I
or export
fabricated
consumables.
are classified
products,
as follows;
assemblies,
sparepark_
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
i
I
I
I
I
I
I
3. Initial
AcguisRion
3.1 Lunar
base
This
initial
ten
is identical
groundwork
year
A
set
of
analysis
presented
Table
facilities
year
with
for
growth
Phase
acquisition
the first
a rapid
period,
to be
representative
to
illustrate
in table
phase
followed
state
the
leading
ten years
expansion
size
of the
of the
by
a 25 year
variables
and
to
has
growth
benefical
Lunar
Lunar
occupancy
Laboratory
Settlement
consolidation
been
trend
the
camp
6. It lays
the
within
a 50
phase.
selected
of
of a base
(LULAB)I
(LUSET)
from
initial
lunar
a detailed
system
facility,
they
are
3-1.
3-1:
Summary
Definitions:
of the
most
important
state
variables
of the
ten-year
LULAB
import rate = mass of imports} mass of total lunar products
selLsufficiency
= lunar prod uced consumables
/ total lunar base conaumption
net production
= mass of total products - mass of imports imports
productivity
= net mass ploduction
/ number of lunar population
total mass output - lunar products for lunar usage + products for export or infrastructure
lunar propellants
minimum
crew duty cycle = crew size/ number
*) over and above initial facilities of 434 t
year of
operation
1
2
lunar
facility
population
IDass
of available
luna¢
1,433
1,730
req. (t) *)
46
146
104
produds
for
oilier
uses CI-BD)
12
13
22
t18
94
87
92
95
76
80
86
92
98
26
31
35
36
37
97
100
104
110
39
4O
434
33
35
4O
531
S0
638
5
6
7
8
42
43
44
47
668
689
714
740
2,036
2,187
2,309
2,433
2,553
9
10
49
52
767
794
2,670
2,786
year of
operation
import
rate
selfsufficency
total
import
mass
net
production
(t)
1
2
3
4
5
0.274
0.425
125
0.586
0.340
0.327
0.246
0.243
0.300
0.300
104
205
247
296
323
0.344
0.364
0.366
0.218
7
8
9
10
0.222
0.221
0.372
0.379
0.386
0.220
0.220
1.
roundtnps
prod ucls
for
lunar
use (t)
47
64
66
27
3
+
lunar
power
planl
capacity
(kW)
99 I
(t)
phase
335
348
36O
370
plod
UZ-
tivily
(t/person)
4.7
3.2
5.8
6.2
7.1
lunar
producvd
propellants (t)
125
191
243
289
310
326
339
350
360
370
total mass
minimum
output
(t)
crew
duty
cycle(yrs)
0.34
0.41
0.44
0.50
184
267
335
395
7.5
7.5
7.4
424
447
467
485
7.3
7.2
5O3
519
0.53
0.54
0.55
0.39
0.41
0.43
tt
Non-recurrent
The
cost
facilities
and
developed
on
years,
has
be
the
Earth
on
born
by
required
funds
- not
required
- have
been
Table
phase
the
initial
to
prior
the
the
level
made
(1st
installed
the
effort
and
of
960
-4
-3
1,203
of
in the
cost of lunar
base
occupancy
{ million
facilities
1994 $)
during
cost of planning
activities
and
and equipment
system
intel_ration
I0
50
facilities
proper,
facilities,
connected
with
as well
as
launch/vehicle
space
and
supFortmg
|
|
cost
i
|
I
10,430
however,
that
crews
the
cost
and
on
services
their
of 6,480
calculated
of lunar
includes
includes
cost
for
transportation
the
the
with
the
costs
the
labor
such
as
sustained
administration,
salaries.
MS
of
for
All
this
years
system.
adds
lunar
logistic
In
of
cost
science
up
1 through
producing
lunar
costs.
the
also
Earth,
improvements,
facilities
charged
to the space
lunar
facility
costs.
Table
3.-3- Direct
operating
LeRend:
(1) Operational
year.
This
It
required
and
lunar
the annually
recurring
cost p. a.) associated
trm_portation.
effort
of lunar
of the
overhaul
be
|
acquisition
tota'i lunar base
facilities
1,280
consumables.
extensions
training
costs
noted,
the
excJi-.d;ng
facility
operating
of
system
initial
developmenl
to be supplemented
by
operating
costs (recurrent
equipment
the
for
alternatively
elements
the
|
I
cost
have
the direct
imported
be
the
of laboratory
The
non-recurring
Table
3-3 presents
It should
of
figures:
1,010
1,250
1,850
2,310
1,780
220
650
ten
investment
transportation
50
460
_
be
about
Estimates
I0
290
650
600
8_]400
annual
This
to
|
cost of first units
of base facilities
0
totals
support,
space
have
take
nations.
_pical
460
460
engineering
Moon
probably
following
-2
-I
lunar
the
employed.
the
1,800
1,800
1,200
costs
wil2
participating
50
50
50
50
120
Recurrent
on
technology
the
240
600
-5
used
This
development
16 resulting
|
phase)
and
deployment.
the
developmeni
cost
and
be
of
including
=nitial
-8
-7
-6
to
facilities
govermnents
3-2: Non-recurring
prior
to beneficial
year
lunar
equipment
depending
to
of
to the
10.
propellants
system
this
case
may
they
i
I
I
I
are
I
laboratory
(million
1994
$ p.a.)
(2) Cost of sustained
engineering,
training of lunar crews and administration
supporiing
lunar surface (the larges! share of all cost elements!)
(3) Salaries of the lunar crew members including their duly cycles on Earth.
(4) Cost of facility modules, equipment
and other imports.
(5) Cost of Earth ground support of science opera|ions
on _he Moon.
(6) Total cost of LULAB activities on the Moon during the firs| ten operational
years
adivilies
on the
I
l
I
I
I
I
B
|
|
|
|
|
!
|
!
i
I
I
I
I
i
I
I
I
I
!
(1)
(2)
(3)
yf,_r
sust.eng.,admin.
1
2
crew
4O8
408
3
(4)
trainin_z _
20
25
27
30
408
1408
5
6
408
4O8
408
7
8
9
10
total
3.2
Logi.sti,C
37
39
310
The
s during
governing
settlement
space
the
transportation
the
lunar
facilities
The
for
logistic
for the
reusable
lunar
space
(LSTS}
system
from
spaceports
is comprised
on
the
first
and
operation
center
(LUO-SOC}
(3) a lunar
bus
lunar
spaceport
The
HLLV
which
do
from
lunar
(LUBUS}
and the
has
a nominal
include
the
sources.
performance
heavy
Institute
passengers,
The
launch
of
but
passengers
3rd
30
t return
produced
version
and
the
stage
vehicle
is
and
5 t for
propellants,
oxygen,
and
a 50
additional
5 t earth
100
produced
the
(100
and
are
(t)
to
NEPTUNE
used
and
between
the
lunar
payload,
the
The
to the
1,1t2)
Earth
and
are
a 45
t
passenger
from
from
of
the
needed.
crew
average
This
Aerospace
cargo
or
with
40
is attached
to
cabin
module
the
the
orbit
assumption.
concept
e.g.
orbit
in lunar
be
conservative
being
Berlin
12. It can
either
transport
and cargo
to the lunar
orbit.
earth
from
(LSTS)
storage
to
refueled
assumed
a
kin),
cargo
tons
not
LUO-SOC,
l lth
year
A nominal
the
same
Aside
system
a3 propellant
metri{
is
aerobrakes.
25
also
of
put
It is
a fully
and available
programs.
lunar
they
is
the
t return
of returning
initially
of
and
on
University
of passengers
has
is capable
cycle
based
phases.
only
of passengers
capability
life
rate
to
is basically
transportation
but
in case
payload
entire
growth
orbit
capability
the
the
14 in a low
payloads,
propellants
lunar
and
cargo
transportation
in lunar
orbit,
payload
return
lunar
the
for passenger
operations
center
transportation
16.
the
Technical
also a mix
passenger
cargo
the
of
required
the
other
propellants
space
of
rate
labor
existing
lunar
for local
LUO-SOC
This
during
lift
and
operation
launch
selected
other
the
{2) the
space
manual
year
phase
and
using
chemical
lift launch
vehicle(HLLV)12
Earth
spaceport
and
a space
for the transfer
of passengers
maintenance
facility,
and
and
and
It determines
settlement
{1} a heavy
between
the
6,562
process
lunar
Shuttle
6_
capability
of
the Earth
and the Moon,
of three
elements
:
645
649
12-1s
amount
the
ten
sytem
Space
ph_ase
to be employed.
for
633
642
IOO
100
IlooO
i
payload
but
also
the
in operation.
753
688
696
648
100
100
100
acquisition
system
lab,'ratory
transportation
subsystems
the
is the
support
t00
100
100
acquisition
above
settlement,
on the Moon
153
total LULAB
recurrent co._t
554
support
100
100
[1,t72
_ni.tia|
factor
specified
science
93
100
102
104
107
34
35
4,080
total import
goods
26
220
1_
109
31
32
408
408
4O8
(6)
(5)
for
on
net
which
lunar
payload
6
of 55 t leaves
of extra
between
beginning
cargo
additional
45 t for return
propellants
can be delivered
to the
LUO-SOC
in the
20 t
|
flight
of the LUBUS
roundtrip
for losses.
In the latter
case,
life-cycle,
100 - 55 - 20 = 25 t of
I
and/or
hydrogen
required
for the continuing
LUO and lunar
base
including
reserves
in year eleven
of the 85 year operational
lunar
addition
This scenario
assumes
the availability
of lunar
HLLV
3rd stage.
During
the first phase
the
additional
cargo but all of its return
propellants.
to the
use,
such
passenger
as
module.
o_,ygen
for the return
flight of the
passenger
vehicle
does
not carry
The HLLV
in its early cargo version
with a nominal
payload
capability
of 100 t
would
carry a 82 t cargo module,
3 t of LH2 return
propellants
and
15 t liquid
hydrogen
propellant,
s for LUBUS operation.
In this case it
would
require
12 t of
LULOX
for the return
flight of the LLV 3rd stage to be taken
onboard
at
the LUOSOC. During
the initial ten year phase only
70t of cargo are delivered
to the lunar
orbit, because
the HLLV
limited
lunar
propellant
vehicle
can also be used
The
logistic
has to take
its own lox for the return
flight along due to
production.
During
the initial
years
the HLLV
cargo
to land directly
45 t of facilities
on the lunar surface.
requirements
to be satisfied
in years
I
1 through
10 are
of the laboratory
analysed
precviously.
They
determine
annual
crew
,otation
requirements
leading
to the primary
charateristics
system
as shown
in the next table.
very
close
I
I
I
I
I
to those
import
mass and
of the logistic
l
I
Table
year
3-4: Characteristic
data of the logistic
ca rgo
total
HLLV
1/lo
flights
11
support
of the
fi._t
10 years
of the LULAB
2
2/6
8
170
80
2
4
total log.
costp.a.
B$*)
7.465
3.657
3
2/6
8
170
80
2
4
1.197
4
2/3
_
170
80
3
4
3.175
5
2/2
4
170
80
3
5
0.985
6
2/2
4
170
80
4
5
2.959
7
2/2
4
170
80
4
5
0.764
8
2/2
4
256
80
5
6
0.956
9
3/2
5
,256
120
5
6
2.991
10
3/2
5
256
t20
6
6
0.859
21/37
58
1,958
2,200
-
4)25.008
total
pass/
cargo
ca pa ci ty
LUS
170
passengers
to
LUS
40
inventory
HLLV
**)
i
*) annual
operating
cost including
product
improvemenL
**) the vehicle
inventory
at the end of the
first 10 yearc
next phase with a value of about 11.816 B$.
it) This total includes
at this point the estimated
at the assumed
price of 0.6 M $/t to the amount
either to the lunar facility or the logistic system,
The cost estimate
of the
TRP_IM
code 13 are listed
aimual
in the
viii
]
iventory
LUBUS
**)
2
be transferred
l
I
I
I
I
to the
cost
for 2900 t of _¢mar propellants
of 1.740 MS. These can be
charged
but not to both!
recurrent
cost
arrived
last column
of the table
I
at with
the help of the
above
for convenience.
l
|
l
I
I
These
have
to be complemented
by
the
non-recurring
costs
of the
-_rogram
to be
carried
out during
the development
and test phase.
These
costs are D_marily
the
development
costs
and first unit costs.
In case pre-production
of vehicles
or
modules
are required
due to the anticipated
schedules,
these are estimated
at the
level of first unit costs. The following
definitions
are presented
the calculation
procedure
used for deriving
the non-recurrent
specified
columns
of table 3-5 :
Table
to understand
costs
listed
better
ir_ the
3-5:
Non-recurrent
LeRend:
cost of the lunar
space
transportation
system
(million
1994 dollars
)
(l) Develot'ment cost the the heavy lift launch vehicle (HLLV) and lunar lander (I,UBUS), including
prototype, ground facilities and flight testing, but excluding crew cabins and payload containers.
(2) Cost of development of crew modules and payload containers for HLLV and LUBUS including
prototypes and flight tests.
(3) One pre-produchon unit - in addition to the prototypes - of all elements of the space transportation
system (other than the SOC) as back-up in case of mishaps. - This is not included in the original cost
model and has to be accounted for separately!
(4) Development
cost of the space operation center (LUO-SOC) on the basis of a modification of the
second stage of the HLLV. The production
of the first complete unit will be listed not under
development but under production cost.
(5) Total cost of the Iogislic system R&D phase, items (1) thru (4) in million 1994 dollam
year
-8
(1)
4O
-7
1,780
-6
-5
2,730
3,480
-4
-3
(2)
(4)
(5)
4O
23
45
1,848
910
62
3,702
1,280
78
4,838
3,980
1,650
88
5,718
4,020
88
5q18
-2
1,810
' 1,670'
7O4
78
6,042
-1
1,350
1,000
62
5,272
45
4,275
546
37,653
95O
2,080
transportation
during
the h_itial
years of operation
1,200
24.56O
totals
The
(3)
system
cost
estimated
with
acquisition
phase
- taking
- are comprised
of:
37.653 B $ for research,
development
(as shown
+
2.826 B for sustained
engineering
and product
+ 15.883 B $ for production
of space transportation
+
Thus
4.571
the
B $ for flight
19 year
operations,
initial
acquisition
billion
(1994)$
per annum
however,
will also be used
In summary,
the
and logistics)are
laboratory..adding
.....
• _-
.......
totaling
period
leads
I I
help
nine
r
I
_1
ii
i
.u
TRASIM
development
code 13,
and
ten
of
3.2
B $.
to
average
for the space
transportation
in the next phase of the lunar
I
of the
years
above)
improvement
system
hardware
=- 60.933
tota!cost
of the first 19 year
approximately
61 B $ for the
up to 78 B $ or approximat.ely
_11 .....
the
about
expenditure
system
employed
settlement
life-cycle!
which,
development
phase
( lunar
facilities
logistic
system
and 17 for the lunar
4.1 B (1994)$ per annum.
i1_
i_ i
,
ii
|
4. The
Second
4.1 The
facilities
1he
growth
operational
Development
Phase
of the lunar settlement
rates
years
of tIae Lunar
and
!
Settlement
logistic
!
requirements
of the population
and number
of passenger
11 through
60 can be selected
within
a reasonable
scenario
the relevant
state variables
are planned
as follows,
with
keep the annual
expenses
nearly constant
or declining
respectively:
Table
_ -1: Projected
year of
operational
._ phase ,,,
II
Lunar
Settlement
scientific &
other people
growth
the
for the
In this
objective
total lunar
population
people
58
77
no.of annual
6O
passenger
flip, his
2
average duty
cycle
(years)
0.75
86
2
1.07
22
97
118
3
0.99
25
43
125
167
5
0.84
30
65
152
216
6
0.90
35
142
230
371
7
:
1.33
40 ......
50
232
615
307
685
537
1,295
9
19
i
1.50
1.70
60
1,000
970
1,944
24
total
14,700
1.7,900
32,600
510
294
358
652
10.2
Table
4-2: Growfl"
the 2nd phase
rates of
mass
inputs
and
outputs
t
settlement
total
noof
flights
p.a.
3
expori or
infrastructure
phase
11
no.
cargo
flights
reqrd,
1
(t) F.a.
100
(t) p.a.
214
15
180
2
2
4
334
559
164
1,056
20
25
233
313
3
'5
3
3
6
8
581
849
230
1,660
842
1,149
349
2,340
3O
377
6
4
l0
1,130
1,450
460
3,041
35
633
7
7
14
1,560
2,004
859
4,424
40
809
9
9
18
2,083
2,567
1,220
5,880
50
1,727
19
20
39
3,977
4,846
3,102
11,926
6O
2,109
total
44,850
897
24
510
20
503
54
1,013
50
4,744
102,750
av.
I
!
2 053
These
requirements
determine
the
actual
which is best illustrated
by selecting
the most
table 4-3.
I
I
i
during
no.of
passenger
flights
2
|
!
1.34
total
cargo
impor_
required
92
year of
operational
I
2.03
of the lunar
!
I
15
2O
average
to
rates
conotruction
and service
2
9
flights
band.
Iunal
prod.lor
lunar use
i
total lunar
outputs
I
(t) p.a.
87
5,515
4,780
15,040
128,400
2 568
77,500
1350
308,650
6 171
performance
of the lunar
important
state
variables
settlement
as shown
I
I
I
I
I
in
I
i
I
Table
|
4-3: Performance
of the lunar
settlement
during
the 2nd phase
year of
operatio nal phase
lunar soil
input(t)
!
11
12,000
0.242
287
4.8
0.415
85O
1,287
15
15,714
0.186
828
9.7
0.404
1,I74
2,826
I
2O
20,000
0.157
1,M7
11.4
0.414
1,583
4,346
25
25,000
0.152
1,904
11.4
0.443
2,191
6,317
|
3O
30,000
0.143
2,494
11.5
0.462
2,824
8,514
35
40,000
0.162
3,521
9.5
0.499
4,474
13,771
4O
50,000
0.156
4,583
8.7
0.523
6,292
20,137
50
90,000
0.163
9,292
7.2
0.571
15,642
50,733
60
100,000
0.162
11,455
6.0
0.622
24,533
82,735
50,020
0.164
4,812
7.4
0.545
7,956
25,455
i
!
|
I
impori
rate
netproduc tion
(t) p.a.
average
4.2 The logistic
As described
system
in chapter
supporting
the
3, the space
self-
p_Juctivity
(t/person)
second
sufficiency
phase
transportation
of the lunar
system
!
I
During
the first phase,
however,
the 12 t oxygen
propellants
the payload
stage from lunar orbit to the Earth was brought
I
I
i
!
I
i
I
I
I
spaceport
capability
the nominal
propellants
originating
of the heavy
flight
flight
The nominal
transferred
requirements
These
which
Charateristic
spaceport
flight
along
scenario
required
for returning
along from the Earth,
are approximately
cargo
and LUBUS
roundtrip
requirements.all liquid
hydrogen
requiremen.ts
for its own
roundtrip
payload
capability
to the lunar
ferry
velocity
= 2000 m/s,
in this
people
to a space
vehicle
(LUBUS),
and returns
them
from
lunar
resources.
This
increases
the nominal
;lift launch vehicle
for lunar
orbit missions
to 82 t.
and the LUBUS
or the LUBUS.
assumptions
lead
the lunar landing-
transports
cargo and
and a lunar
ferry
to the lunar spaceport
cargo payload
to 70 t. Beginning
with operational
year 11
will be brought
up to the LUO-SOC
from
the luner
Lunar
oxygen
for HLLV return
In this case the HLLV brings
return
return
power
required
(kW)
settlement
employed
is a heavy
lift laur _h vehide
(HLLV) whid_
operations
center
in lunar
orbit (LUO-SOC)
which
takes the cargo and passengers
down
the same way.
thus reducing
these
return
lunar
facilities
(t)
only,
but
no
LOX
of the HLLV is reduced
in lunar
orbit
at the
110 t per
flight
as shown
propellants
its
own
from 100 t to 82 t to be
LUO-SOC.
The LULOX
in table
to the following
mass- and performance
and launch
vehicle
has to be sized:
for a single
flight between
exchaust
velocity
4500 m/s,
for
the lunar
mass ratio
4-4.
characteristics
orbit
and
(minimum)
on
the lunar
= 1.56.
10
Table 4-4: Mass model
the 2nd and 3rd phases
of LUBUS passenger
and carRo fliKhts
of the life-cycle
tmetrictons)
passenger
with
Down
flights
some
as emplo_¥ed
cargo
only
durin_
cargo
empty stage
cabin with crew
22
I
cargo
25
from
1_9
47(7LH2+40Lulox)
i
61(9+52)
170
129
LUS to LUO:
22
empty stage mass
cabin with crew
|
I
2O
25
0
cargo to earth
Lulox for down leg
Lulox for LV 3rd stage
cut-off mass in LUO
40
propellants
used
Take-off
mass on the Moon
Mass-balance
HLLV
50 t crew cabin + 5 t
for lunar ferry with
Mass balance
HLLV
Cargo
|
82
10
82
propellants
required
take-off
mass in LUO
Ascent
20
25
...hydrogen
for ascent
stage at cut-off
52
25
15
112
87
63(10LH2+53Lulox)
175
+ 2 t LH2 for HLLV
stage
!
49(7+42)
136
passenger
flights
with max.
40persons
LH 2 return propellants
+ 20 t hydrogen
losses + 25 t kmar cargo
= 100 t
cargo flights:
82 t + 16 t LH2 for Lubus
|
:
!
return=
i
100t
LunarLOX
-requirements
at the lunar spaceport:
Passenger
flights : 40 + 53 + 25 + 2 losses = 120 t per flight
Cargo flights: 52 + 42 + 15 + 1 losses = 110t per flight
LunarLOXrequirements
in LUO :
Passenger
flights : 25 t per return flight to the Earth
Cargo flights with 0 payload
return to the Earth: 15 t LOX
i
I
It should
be pointed
out, that some growth
potential
is available
on the long run.
In a favourable
development
of lunar
resources,
all liquid
oxygen
and liquid
hydrogen
propellants
required
by the
HLLV
for the return
trip as well as those
required
by the LUBUS for its roundtrip
are produced
on the Moon.
The
full
nominal
payload
capability
of the HLLV of 100 t is then available
for unloading
lunar
orbit and transfer
to the lunar spaceport
by the LUBUS cargo
vehicle.
LULOX
This
requirements
would
lead
are
to a further
then
120 t per flight,
reduction
After
having
determined
the Lulox
LUBUS vehicles based on the number
the LH 2 requirements
of the logistic
propellant
of flights
i
I
flights
leg l .UO-_cK3C to LUS:
delivered
I
cost
are
in
The
20 t[ flight.
I
I
I
15
requirements
for the HLLV
scheduled,
we have to check if
and
these
I
I
I
I
!
1l
!
e
annual
propellant
amounts
of
production
ranging
during
this
We also
have
deliver
all the
lunar
produced
facilities.
These
phase
of the
to show
that
import
masses
LOX
are
capacities
life-cycle
from
within
have
the
capacity
been
listed
about
100
t to more
the scheduled
passenger
required.
These
balances
and
are
cargo-flights
presented
of
on
the
lunar
table
4-2
than
4,000
t p.a.
together
can
table
4-5.
on
!
The
first
either
|
three
years
has
to be
Lox
some
reserves
50 year balance
production
l
be
from
Taking
i
This
i
these
Table
l
year of
operational phase
4-5: Mass
than
not
that
making
lunar
quite
production
use
facilities
of
be
respect
exceed
the
reserves
Lulox
in
tables
3-1
a 18.5
balances
%
of
reserve
lunar
logistic
of lunar
propellants
LU LOX
produced
(t) p.a.
(t) p.a.
350
2i4
46O
a60
460
460
580
580
690
690
690
60
total
AV.
of imports
oxygen
supply
during
this
propellants
situation.
and
needs,
thus
There
are
first phase
! In the
will be sufficient,
t(, the
capacities
(shown
the
increased.
end
of the
propellants
With
the
cover
must
consumption.
columns,
the
does
Lulox
on the Moon
at the
however,
the Lulox
iulox req. for
flight schedule
assumed
19
20
30
4O
50
i
the
capacities,
of
indicates
14
15
16
17
18
I
two
adequate
amount
to be a satisfactory
11
12
i
1t.2%
last
excess
analysis
I
|
production
or
imports
the
4-2
adding
a way,
of the
produced.
the
), it appears
in such
phase
it can
requirements.
and
and
to adjust
the available
production
and
storage
facilities
Lulox
production
deficit
can certainly
be managed.
-
with
an
considered
i
by
the
production
possible
a small
Lulox
of Lulox
available
of the 2nd phase,
is higher
seen
excess
the
imported
life
This
that
cycle
can
be
imports
_otal payload
ca pact ty
available
334
(t) p.a.
132
214
422
494
559
620
679
214
2i4
214
239
239
737
793
321
1,060
2,070
849
1,450
2,577
321
321
478
963
4,480
5080
115,430
2,309
4,846
5,515
128,412
2,568
2,115
2,240
53,176
1,063
total cargo
imports required
(t) p.a.
92
201
150
154
180
191
202
212
223
233
377
809
1,727
2,109
44,850
897
--
l
I
I
I
I
4.3
Cost
On
the
of operafinl_
basis
of the
factors
it is now
phase,excluding
lunar
groups:
installations
the
mass
possible
logistics.
10. The
lunar
models,
settlement
launch
durinl_
rates
the
and
second
plausibel
to estimate
the annual
cost
of the
This is done
using
the
simulation
cost
elements
have
been
operational
phase
assumptions
for
cost
lunar
settlement
growth
program
(LUBSIM)
for
summarized
into
three
major
i
- cost of facility elements,
equipment
and spareparts
- cost of products
imported
for consumption
at the lunar
- crew
salaries
and
cost of all support
manpower
Table
4-6: Overview
of annual recurrent
of the lunar settlement
at selected
years
coslo[
of
year
I
costof
facilities
operationa
phase
&
equipw__nt
11
55
15
128
2O
Earth
the logistic
cost
I
salaries
olhercost
&
elements
|/.
_li
support
0
846
58
797
0
983
133
73
808
0
25
184
84
827
45
1,140
3O
194
87
845
68
1,194
35
358
84
9O4
95
1,441
4O
412
80
967
120
1,579
5O
1,010
95
1,251
167
2,523
6O
1,177
97
1,490
227
2,991
av.
520.8
81.4
1,008.5
96.3
1,709
is comprised
of "
_.otal cost
for the lunar
cost
cost
of imported
for imported
cost of personnel
other cost items
facilities
for this 2nd phase
facilities, equipment
consumables
on the Earth
and
and
spares
on the Moon
d urinl_the
second
and
These
categories:
been
grouped
in the follo_ing
- product
improvement
of the elements
- vehicle prod uction cost, including
the
operations
center required
during
this
subsystems
to be replaced
because
they
are included
in the production
cost;
operations
irregular
I
l
!
l
including
amounts
observed
maintenence
m
the cost of newly manufactured
space
Under
real life conditions
these costs
reduce
these local peaks.
l
phase
The vehicle
mass models,
the flight schedule
experience
are the basis for this calculation.
- flight
I
4.815 B $
85.430 B $
4.4 Cost of operatin_thelo_isticsystem
have
I
I
26.040 B $
4.150 B $
50.425 B $
Total
costs
I
reurring
cosl
LUSET
789
The
The
l
on Earth.
costs excluding
(M 1994 $ )
crew
imporled
oonumables
settlement
required
cost
factors
derived
from
past
I
of the space transportation
system;
production
cost of a second
space
growth
phase, but also the cost of
have reached
their design lifetime
and
the last
I
I
repair.
column
i
of table
vehicles
are paid
would
be spread
4-7 reflect
fully in the
over several
the fact
that
year of delivery
years and thus
I
I
I
I
ii
|
!1
Ii
13
Table
4-7: Overview
( M $ ) at selected
year of
operational phase
11
of z anual
years
during
vehicle
vehicle
produd
improvemenl
282.6
production
cost
2426
12_
12
13
14
15
282.6
282.6
I
20
25
30
282.6
282.6
282.6
I
35
40
50
I
recurrent
costs
of the
the growth
phase
of
space
transportation
the lunar
settlement
flight
operations
total
Iogishc
system
3281
_596
572
289
274
98
87
50
264
257
655
6M
590
92
66
92
344
433
511
719
782
886
282.6
282.6
310
151
667
811
1,260
282.6
721
1,553
1,245
2,557
60
total
282.6
14 130
718
33,155
1,616
43,467
2,617
90,752
average
283
663
869
1,815
i
system
--
i
I
|
!
I
i
4.5
After
the
I
I
having
of second
of
the
logistics
the
annual
11
12
13
14
15
2o
_'
the
cost
1,045
967
951
981
for
life-cycle
the
extension
settlement
support
of systems
LUSET
total
recurring
cost (MS)
846
settlement
estimates
lunar
irregtflarities
in table 4-8.
4-8: Overview
year of
operational
phase
of lunar
at cost
of
through
60. The
also recognizable
Table
phase
derived
phase
foz
overview
!
I
cost
growth
required
I
I
Total
of
of
this
the
during
the
annual
logistic
system
recurring
cost(MS)
3,2S1
696
system
cost
(MS)
5,942
655
634
590
719
782
1,771
1,622
1,585
1,571
1,728
1,914
25
1,OFF)
1,132
30
i5
1,186
1,435
886
1,260
2,072
2,695
40
1,575
1,245
2,820
._0_
60
total
2,505
3,172
85,430
2,557
2,617
5,062
5,789
• _ aYerag e
1,710
90,752
1,815
,r
176,182
3,525
new
space
we
system
from
of the
the
enterprise,
entire
resulting
cost
and
are
for
nov,,
the
vehicle
growth
lunar
phase
facilities
transportation
able
system
to
present
some
years
operational
buys
in
of the
during
lunar
years
settlement
an
11
are
14
5: The
(3rd)
Consolidation
5.1 Development
During
the
Phase
trends
of the
of the lunar
consGidation
phase
Lunar
operation
the
seiected
state
!
Settlement
during
the consolidation
variables
of the
I
phase
lunar
settlement
will change
along the lines presented
in the next three tables, where
the year
the last year of the growth
phase.
This change
in pace will require
adjustments
some of the state variables
from the 2nd to the 3rd phase of the life-cycle.
Table
phase
5-1: Projected
of the Lunar
year
change
rates
Settlement
scientific
ot
operalional
._
phase
other
&
of lunar
1,000
970
65
1,000
70
1,000
75
80
85
total
average
Table 5-2: Change
the consolidation
ope-
rational
of
total
ca rgo
imports
required
the
hmar
no.of annual
population
passenger
flights
average
duty
cycle
(years)
24
879
24
1.96
959
1,959
24
2.04
1,000
983
1,983
24
2.06
1,000
1,000
990
1,000
1,990
2,000
24
24
2.07
25,000
23,950
48,950
600
1,000
958
1,958
24
'
rates of mass inputs
and outputs
(3rd) phase (year 60 is the last year
no.of
passen-
no.of
primary
get
flights
cargo
flights
, reqrd.
total
noof
export or
infra-
2.08
2.04
of the lunar settlement
of the 2nd phase)
lulox
lunar
during
total
lunar
strudure
products
propellanls
products
for lunar
produced
use
p.a.
(t) p.a.
(t) p.a.
(t) p.a.
(t)p.a.
prima ry
flights
outputs
24
20
54
4,744
5,515
4,780
15,040
65
1,571
24
16
40
5,016
5,027
3,826
13,869
70
1,749
24
16
40
5,762
5,774
4,148
15,684
75
1,727
24
16
40
6,279
6,105
4,135
16,519
8O
1,730
24
16
4O
6,412
6,161
4,187
16,760
85
1,731
24
16
4O
6,530
6,208
4,239
16,977
total
42,775
600
400
1,000
147,500
145,200
102,500
395,200
1,711
24
16
40
5,900
5,808
4,100
15,808
These
which
5-3.
!
requirements
determine
the actual
performance
is best illustrated
by selecting
some relevant
state
I
2.03
2,109
av.
i
consolidation
1,944
1,879
phase
60
total
people
6O
year
during
60 is
for
I
construction
and service
people
population
|i
of the lunar
settlement
variables
as shown
in table
!
I
I
|
I
I
a
I
I
I
I
I
I
!
15
!
I
Table
year
5-3: Performance
lunar
of
operatio-
soil
input(t)
I
Y _P SL
i
|
!
I
I
i
I
I
I
I
I
(t) p.a.
productivity
seif-
phase
lunar
sufficiency
(t/person)
Dower
facilities
requ i red
(t)
(kW)
11,455
6.0
0.622
24,533
82,735
65
86,000
0.130
11,172
5.9
0.620
24,192
69,980
70
96,000
0.127
12,722
6.5
0.618
24,598
76,857
75
100,000
0.119
13,539
6.8
0.619
25,391
80,036
80
100,000
0.118
13,737
6.9
0.622
2_478
81,438
85
100,000
0.116
13,908
7.0
0.626
25,508
82,650
25 y total
2 412,000
-
-
av.
96,480
0.613
24,937
-
cost of imported
cost for imported
cost of personnel
321,750
0.123
The total cost for the lunar
is comprised
of
I
I
uc-
the consolidation
0.162
The required
documented
I
net prod
tion
during
100,000
I
i
rate
imFort
settlement
6O
other
Total
I
of the lunar
12,870
facilities
facilities,
equipment
consumables
on the Earth and
6.6
for the 25 year
and
on the
consolidation
spares
phase
Moon
5.590 B $
61.238
performance
of the
in the next tables.
logistic
77,162
15.238 B $
2.175 B $
38.235 B $
cost items
5.2 The
settlement
-
system
supporting
lunar
logistic
the
third
As described
in chapter
3, the space transportation
is not changed
during
the entire
life-cycle
of the
system
during
operational
the
phase
3rd
phase
of the
is
lunar
system employed
in this scenario
lunar settlement.
However,
this is a
conservative
assumption
because
the state-of-the-art
will be improving
as function
of time leading
to an increase
of payload
capability
of the space vehicles
as well as an
improvement
of their reliability
and maintainability.
This is not reflected
in the
assumptions
made
for the second
and third
opi_erational
phases
of the lunar
settlement
life-cycle.
During
the entire
operation
an amount
of almost
300 M $ p.a.
will be spent in this scenario
to sustain
a small development
group
to take care of
technical
difficulties
developing
during
the operation,
but also
to improve
the
system
due to learning
and upgrading.
This will show up some
time in the lifecycle, but has been neglected
to stay on the safe side with the performance
estimates.
The launch
rates during
the 3rd phase
will be kept constant:
16 p.a. for cargo flights
and 24 p.a. for passenger
flights e.g. a total of 40 p.a., less than one per week. Excess
lunar
propellants
available
could
be used
for increasing
the return
payload
capability
of the space vehicles
resulting
in imports
of lunar products
to the Earth
if
economically
justified,
such as Helium-3,
rare metalls
or even souveniers.
16
The simulation of the lunar spacetransportation system for a 25 year consolidation
phase(year 11- 85of the life cycle) with constant launch rates and some 2,030 flights
total
- using
following
Product
total
oxygen
for the
LI _'--JS
and
HI,LV
improvement
flights
7.065 B $
efforts
of vehicles
and
subsystem
replacements
operations
logistic
average
return
- produced
the
I
i
data:
production
flight
lunar
I
cost during
annual
logtstic
3rd
phase
cost
3rd
phase
28.132
B $
35.906
B $
71.102
B $
2.844 B
|
I
I
i
!
I
|
I
I
|
i
!
!
I
l
I
i
I
i
,, ,_
,
,
,
I
i
!
i
I
!
g
g
I
I
17
6. Comparison
of L,ife-cycle
After
of the
completion
Phases
analysis
to compare
the performance
relate
them
to the overall
illustrating
some of the trends
Table
6-1: Overview
of the
cumulative
lunar labor
opera|ional
years
of the
three
development
phases
e:evelopment
of lunar population
years of sclence
capacity
ilffrastructure
labor years
passenger
capacity
average lunar
crew duty cyle
years
1-10
412
119
293
840
0.50
11-60
32,600
14,700
17,900
20,400
1.34
61-85
48,950
25,000
23,950
24,000
2.04
81,962
39,819
42,143
45,240
1.81
tot_
LC
The cumulative
overall
parameter
number
of available
labor years
on the Moon is perhaps
the
to compare
various
lunar
facilities.
This lunar
settlement
81,962 lunar labor years in 85 operational
1,000 ( exactly 964).
- the development
shown
rapidly
in figure 6-1. It begins
slow
during
the second
phase
and
with
levels
about 27 people
in th, _ first year,
off during
the consc"
aon phase.
----.41
I
1800
I
1 400
1 600
1 200
1 000
o
O
800
60O
400
2O0
I
I
0 r
onnel
;
LID
;_
IX_
I
I
U3
!
L_
t
I$3
I
133
t
Lf3
L_
I
year
of
LD
I
Figure 6-1: Development
of scientific personnel
and total population
duringthe
operational period of the lunar settlement life-cycle
operation
I
I
I
'
best
with
years are close to
an average
population
of
of the hmar
crew as function
of time is
Z000
!
possible
of the individual
phases
of the system
life-cycle
and
system
performance.
This is done
in this
chapter
to be expected.
I
I
it is now
i
grcws
k
18
Table
6-2: Overview
of masses processed
imports
required
import
capacity
(t)
import
lunar
products
for lunar
r@serve
lunar
products
for export
orTBD
produced
total
output
of lunar
prod uds
250
2,900
3,970
lunar
propellanis
1-10
1,773
1958
185
usage
820
11-60
44,850
53,176
8,326
77,500
102,750
128,400
308,650
61-85
42,775
47,800
5,025
102,500
147,500
145,200
395,200
102,934
13,536
180,820
250,500
276,500
707,820
1,210
15.1%
2,127
2,947
3,253
8,327
illustrates
that
total
LC
i
av.LC
89,398
1,052
A 15% import
Table
reserve
6-3: Overview
of flight
this is not a marginal
numbers
and
system
supply
total flights
import ratio
self-sufficiency
1-10
37
21
58
0.29
0.35
tivity
9.6
11-60
503
510
1,013
0.16
0.55
7.4
61-85
400
600
1,000
0.12
0.61
6.6
total LC
940
1,131
2,071
0.13
0.58
8.6
dev.Phase
of lunar
facility
and
operation
earth
imports
costs
during
crew
salaries
support
operational
other
phase
total
1,172
5,980
11 -60
30,190
30,000
20,425
4,815
85,830
61 - 85
17,413
23,235
23,235
5,590
61,238
LC total
48,775
50,080
43,970
10,405
153,230
av-p -aTable
6-5. Overview"
574
310
589
of space
sustained
costs
production
engineering
1-
122
during
operational
flight
total
oPeration
15,883
4,571
23,280
11 - 60
14,130
33,155
43,467
90,752
7,065
28,132
35,906
71,103
24,021
77,170
83,944
185,135
282
908
988
2,178
total
...... av.p.a.
i
I
I
I
I
phase
2,826
LC
|
1,803
10
60-85
i
6,562
517
transportation
|
produc-
1 - 10
'7
I
effidencies
passenger
flights
6-4: Overview
i
proposition!
cargo flights
Table
I
!
|
!
|
|
|
i
i
i
II
19
I
|
Table
6-6: Overview
phase
of LC
of life-cycle
!
|
( up.year
growth
( 11 to 60 )
phase
consolidation
(61 to 85)
during
[ lunar
logistics
total
48.083
6.562
23.280
36.1.28
85.430
9'0,752
176.I82
61 238
71.103
[
132.M0
163.660
222.788
!
386.448
1.744
2.370
]
4.111
94 yr LC
I
In this analysis
it has been assumed
that this is a non-commercial
single
agency.
These system
cost can be spht either on the basis
and logistics,
or between
the lunar
settlement
operation
(minus
I
space transportation
system)
and the total cost of the space transportation
illustrate
the difference,
the next table shows the cost of lunar
produced
and services
utilized
by the space
transportation
system,
which
would
I
|
added
to the transportation
Table 6-7 : Overview
services(
B $)
cost
of space
cost of dev.
i
I
!
|
|
|
H
|
|
g
g
to obtain
p.'oductionand
operation on
Earth
propellants
-9 - 0
37.653
1-i0
28.203
7.930
11-60
102.207
61-85
total LC
on the
picture.
cost including
cost of lunar
overhaul and
launch
servives
lunar
propellants
total cost of
space
transportation
and
share of
cost originating
on |he Moon
of total cost
1.133
37.266
24.3%
15.965
1.660
119.832
14.7%
72.393
5.058
1.000
78.451
7.7%
240.456
28.953
3.793
273.202
12.0%
lunar
included,
because
this
the specific
transportation
graphically
system. To
p re,zellants
hav.., to be
0
Lunar propellants
required
Lunar
propellants
required
Lunar propellants
required
LC totals:
Required
2-36,085
cost
program
run by a
of lunar
operation
the services
to the
37,653
Also of interest
Ln this connection
propellants
required.
The excess
exports:
If the
a compIete
transportation
cost of lunar
phase
37.653
1 to 10)
cost ( - 9 to 85 )
alw, o_al average
facilities
1994 $)
]0-a7 -i
( - 9 to 0 )
trot.laboratory
LC system
cost (billion
lunar
init. development
|
system
presented
is the balance
of production
of lunar
propellants
over requirements
produced
and
can be used for
I -10 :
3,555 t, produced
:
2,900t, imported
655 t
11-60 : 116,530 t, produced
: 128,400t, excess: 11,870 t
61-85 : 116,000 t, produced
: 145,200t, excess : 29,200t
t, pr_Kluced 276,500, excess 40,415 t = 175 reserve
!
side
related
to space
transportation
transportation
are
not
is somewhat
simpler
and desirable
for certain
comparisons,
cost as function
of time are summarized
in table 6-6 and
in figure
6-1.
2O
Table
6-8 : Overview
of space transportation
costs per
respectively
during the life-cycle
of the lunar settlement
flights
(lunar
transportation
propellants
year
of
life-cycle
and
services
not charged
to the space
HLLV
HLLV
LUBUS
LUBUS
_rgo
MS / ft.
pass.
M S/ft.
cargo
M S/ft.
pass
M S/ft.
and
cargo
ES-LUS
per
unit
payload
system!)
pass.
ES-LUSES
$/kg
159
18
2,207
4,425
15
106
111
2
11.3
1,361
3,123
25
92
97
5
10.2
1,190
2,726
35
86
9O
0
9.5
1,102
2,524
45
78
82
4
8.8
1,006
2,308
55
68
72
5
7.7
872
2,010
65
69
73
3
7.4
85!
1,961
75
61
65
1
7,.1
745
1,727
6O
4.4
6.3
728
1,686
85
|
|
i
*)T$/seat
156
!
i
!
R
i
*)These
figures
do not take into consideration
the fact that the specific
passenger
costs are actually
reduced
by carrying
25t of cargo along. Ghis can be accounted
for by
reducing
the passenger
cost by about 32 percent.
But [hey increase
by about 12%(as
shown
above) if the cost lunar
resources
are included.
|
|
i
4500
|
4.000
3500
,_
I
r passenger roundtrip (T$/seat)
3000
2500
I
"_. 2000
150o
I
1000
S00
I
0
Id3
I./3
operational
Figure 6-2:
propeilantsand
Specific
cost
| unarservices
of lunar
tD
_O
I.D
F_
hD
CO
year
I-------4-----4-------4
transportatien
excluding
|
1
the
cost
of lunar
I
I
I
|
J
21
7. The
System-
Effectiveness
oDth e [unar
Settlement
I
Yhe most important
system
table to enable a comparison
i
Table7-1: Life'_cle
pefformanceand
cost summary
model 2.r_of 1996-{cos_ in miElion I994dollars
}
J
|
|
i
lunar
facilities
available
at the end
total
hmar
products
---
lunar
propellants
....
lunar
products
available
--
lunar
products
used
total
hmar
labor-yearn
--
max.
Initial
used
admistration,
vehicles
for export
on the Moon
for lease
|
facilities
support
and
during
first
units
o?eration,
crew
i
i
J
i
i
I
i
I
spares,
lunar
vehicle
equipment,
base
tOai
operations
sv_btotal
t
276,500
t
250,500
t
10,430
M $
5O,08O
M $
support
during
43,970
M $
48,775
M$
operation
37,653
M$
24,021
M $
77,170
M $
83,944
M $
22_2 788
M $
for 94 yr life-c__Gvcle
386,448
MS
per
lunar
the 94 year
life--Q'cle
labor
(no commercial
-year
4_.__4a_111
M__M__
sales)
4.7l
M$/MX
sales:
sale of lunar
spaces
export
( ca. 20 000 * 5 M$ )
products
100,000
(250 000 t * 0,1 M S/t)
sales
net cost
707,820
16;_G}_
66_0 M_M_
cost
of laboratory
total
t
system
.s_i_ecific cost
lease
and__=c2peration
engineering
and
average_during
Potential
consumables
cost
logistic
totM cost
annual
and
engineering
to___ pr__.__uction
facilities,
acquisitior:
development
sustained
24,550
training,
of lunar
subtotal
progyam.
3%819
|
imported
= subsidz
net cos_ per lunar
labor-year[
a__zverage net
_p2 r mmum
cost
261 448/81
962 )
MS
25,000
M $
125,000
DI $
261,.448
MS
3.19 M $/y__y___]
cost reduction
factor
compared
with OI*llON
1 (Outpost)
a.no commercial
sales: 536 M $ • 4,71
b.with estimated
commercial
sales
536 M$ • 3.19 M $
114
168
|
]
I
I
'
next
81,962
available
science
in the
180,820t
available
of lunar
and
of tile !ire-cycle
for space
laboratory-years
Engineering
ofl anar settlement
available
development
salaries
performance
paramete_
are summarized
with other !unar base concepts:
I ,,r--
........
_
L___
22
8. Summary
This
and
report
a concept
which is conceivable
favourable
development
This
scenario
il
Conclusions
presents
and
a preliminary
analysis
of
during
the
to be established
on the Moon
conditions
on Earth.
assumes
that
a
multi-year
planning
period,
soon
a lunar
21st
after
century
the
!
settlement
under
turn
of the
century,
is expected
to clear the way for the acquisition
of a lunar laboratory.
This
lunar project gets underway
during
the second decade of the next century
beginning
about
the year
2016, assuming
that
financing
begins
about
the year
2006. The
development
period
will last nearly
one decade,
before
the first construction
crew
returns
to the lunar
surface.
laboratory
at t:,e selected
base
After
site,
at, initial
a growth
ten year
phase
of
period
of establishing
the lunar
settlement
follow to last about fifty years. This step of lunar
development
is concluded
year consglidation
phase
and leads
to a lunar
population
of about
2 000
This scenario
ends abruptly
in the year 2100, however,
it is anticipated
lunar
settlement
will somehow
continue
after that in an undefined
way.
The logistic
suppor t of this
reusable
space
transportation
enterprise
system,
A heavy
lift launch
vehicle(HLLV)
node
in lunar
orbit(SOC),
where
vehicle(LUBUS),
which
takes care
settlement
capability
and the space
operations
of the HLLV to lunar orbit
is provided
using
lunar
by a near
propellants
products
infrastructure
are available
(e.g.roads,
at the average
pipe
lines,
power
for either
export
lines, solar
farms
In addition,
some 3,000 tons of lunar oxygen
are available
for the space vehicles
serving
the lunar
settlemenL
The
and
scientific
i
I
|
payload
propellants
material
or developing
I
I
to
of
of imports
are
rate of about
- other
than
construction
I
i
less than
1,000 tons
a considerable
share
these originate
from lunar resources.
An average
of about 1,000 tons
required
annually
to sustain
the settlement
which has a self-sufficiency
other
by a 25persons.
that
the
to a transportation
to a lunar
ferry
between
the lunar
center
in lunar
orbit.
The nominal
is 100 metric tons or 40 pas,_enger,s.
2,000 tons p.a. of lunar products
Nearly
3,000 t p.a. of additional
a
will
state-of-the-art,
fully
as much as possible.
transports
people
and cargo
the payloads
are transferred
of the local transportation
In this scenario,
the mass of the lunar
facilities
grows
from
about 25,000 tons at the end of the 85 year operational
period,
60 percent.
More than
find use on the Moon.
!
the
and
lunar
outposts).
per annum
as propellants
logistics
support
requires
I
i
il
I
a
total of 940 cargo flights (11 p.a.) and 1131 passenger
flights(13
p.a.), these are average
values
over
the operational
period.
The activities
would
lead
to a peak
of 44
missions
p.a., or less than one per week. The specific
transportation
cost of cargo
from the Earth to the Moon is over 2,000 $/kg in the early years, but drops down
to
less than 1,000 $/kg
towards
the end of the life-cycle.
The passenger
roundtrip
cost
is expected
to begin with about 5 MS per seat and be less then 2 MS/seat
at the end of
the period
investigated.
I
I
II
The average
duty cycle for the lunar personnel
is 1.8 years.
In case each person
stays
only once on the Moon a total of 45,240 people will have been on the Moon by the
year
2100!
- The average
annual
cost to build
and
operate
the facilities
and
I
equipment
i
of the
lunar
settlement
have
been
estimated
with
the
help
of detailed
I
I
|
i
I
!
I
I
!
i
|
I
I
ii
I
I
i
i
i
i
I
I
i
23
simulation
codes
system
requires
386 billion
$
preliminary,
considerable
to be approximately
approximately
for the entire
1.744
B (1994)$
2.37 B $ p.a., tot,_ling
94 year life-cycle.
On
but on the other hand
room
for improvements.
this is not
yet
and
an
optimized
cost are the cost to the participating
governments.
some of the available
laboratory'
space
to interested
Earth
for
purposes
of research
are leased
at five
from these commercial
and
development.
million
dollars
sources.
Also
space
transportation
4.111 B $ p.a. or :.pl_roximately
one hand
these
estimates
are
These
leasing
labor-years
obtained
the
there
is
They can be reduced
commercial
entities
If 20,000
each,
some
program,
of the
approximately
of the 250,000
40,000
by
on
scientific
100 B $ can be
t of construction
materials
and other
products
for export
might
be sold (e.g. for the construction
of
solar power
plants
of international
utilities)
which
could
bring another
25 B $ and
reduce
the cost to the taxpayer
accordingly.
The overall
total could thus be reduced
to somewhere
near 250 B$ or 3 B$ p.a. !
CONCLUSIONS
1. The exploration
of the Moon and
quality
of life on Earth
may one day
the human
species.
2. At this stage
of the available
the utilization
of its resources
prove to be an essential
step
insights
into
a; well into the present
state-of-the-art
feasible
to establish
a lunar settlement
about 2,000 people by the year 2100.
a fairly
complex
to improve
of the survival
geopolitical
the
of
situation
of space
technology,
it appears
during
the 21st century
providing
technically
room for
3. Such an enterprise
has to be financed
primarily
by public
funds.
An average
of
less than 5 billion
1994 dollars
per year are required
to pay for the cost of such a
program,
with
a peak
slightly
below
the 10 billion
$ mark
at the end
of the
development
period.
4. Consequently,
the exploration
during
the
next
decade
to
environment.
commence
of a lunar
are about
purposes.
percent
program
if several
politically
by robotic
knowledge
Also a serious
multi-year,
multi-nation
shortly
after the turn of the century
to develop
next stage of l anar development
the end of the 21st century.
5. Although
of the Moon
improve
our
controversial,
settlement
fifty percent
With other
of the
global
developing
countries
opportune
leading
it appears
already
of the
words,
military
to a lunar
entirely
colony
justifyable
spacecraft
of the
should
Moon
planning
attractive
activity
options
of modest
to debate
continue
and
its
should
for the
proportions
the pros
be
and
cons
now, if the total finances
required
to accomplish
this
amount
spent
on this planet
every year for military
the level of resources
required
is on the order
of one
expenses
per
year
at the
present
time.
Thus
such
a
a lunar settlement
is certainly
financially
feasible,
particularly
are participants
in this pioneering
enterprise.
Whether
this
at a cert'_in point in time is an other question.
is
24
REFERENCt_
1. W.v.Braun,W.Ley,F.L.Whipple
Magazine,
18.Oct.1952,
Edition:"Die
Eroberung
2. H.H.Koelle(Ed.):
The
des
6. C.Dalton
Contract
et
Houston
8. E.M.Cortright:
9.
and
204
1959
Company,N.Y.,1961
Study",
1969
Report
Colony",
SD71-477,
NASA
Slay
CR-129164,
Value
for
Human
Environmertt
on
NASA
SP-350,
Communities
1975
on
the
Moon",
1977
Base
Simulation",
ILR
Mitt.115/1982,
pp.,1.Nonv.1982
Obayashi:"On
12. H.HKoelle
their
to the Moon",
10.H.H.Koelle,B.Johenning:"Lunar
ll.Kikan
Agency,
vol.5,p.82-88,May
a Lunar
High-Technology
Feb.+March
Techn.Univ.Berlin,
Missile
529 pp, Sep.1972
Expeditions
"Small
vol.19,
(German
1954)
Pub!ishing
Journal,
Collier's
vol.l,1974,p.585-622
"Apollo
B.Parkinson:
Spaceflight,
University,
Ballistic
World
of
Moon",
York
('/
Synthesis
Design
"Lunarlndustries
Astronautica,
r
The
Base
the
¥ erla_,,l_rankfurt,
Science
Rockwell:"Lunar
N7311236
Acta
Colony",
on
Publ.Co.,New
US Army
Moon",
al.:"Conceptual
7. K.A.Ehricke:
Earth",
the
Lunar
American
Crowell-Collier
Horizon",
and
4. R.W.Johnson:"The
"Man
Mondes",S.Fischer
"Project
3.R.S.Richardson:"Man
5. North
1971
(C.Ryan-Ed.):
the Moon",
et al.:"NEPTUNE-
Nr.25-1987,
2000
Plus",
ISSN
0389-3707,45
pp.
ILR Mitt.229(1989),TU
Berlin,
61 pp.1.Dec.1989
13.H.H.Koelle,
B.Johenning:
Multi-Mission
Scenario",
"A Multi
Vehicle
ILR Mitt.240(1990),
14. H.H.Koelle:"LunarOrbit
Service
Space
TU
Station",
Carrier
Berlin,
Space
Fleet
Cost
99 pp.,1.May
Technology,
Model
For A
1990
vol.10,no.3,pp.185
-
88,1990
15.H.H.Koelle:"Post
Mitt.298(1995),
Apollo
41 pp.,
16. H.H.Koelle:"The
Lunar
Development",
Earth-Lunar
Space
Transportation
Systems",
ILR
1.12.1995
l,unar
Laboratory-
ILR Mitt.303(1996),
An attractive
TU Berlin,
Option
15.3.1996,
for the
65 pp.
next
Phase
of
i
l
!
i
i
!
|
I
I
i
I
I
I
l
I
I
I
I
I
I
I