PROCEEDING International Seminar
Transcription
PROCEEDING International Seminar
PROCEEDING I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E M I N A R Edited by : R. Pamekas Widiani Purnomosari Enfy Diana Dewi Aldina Rani Lestari PROCEEDING International Seminar “Innovation in Accelarating Infrastructure Competitiveness and Sustainability” November 11th, 2014, Bali, Indonesia i PROCEEDING OF INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR INNOVATION IN ACCELARATING INFRASTRUCTURE COMPETITIVENESS AND SUSTAINABILITY ISBN-978-602-14698-9-7 Published by Research Centre for Social Economic and Environment (RCSEE) Research and Development Agency – Ministry of Public Works Heritage Building 3rd floor, West Wing, Jalan Pattimura No. 20, South Jakarta INDONESIA December 2014 Copyright © 2014 by Research Centre for Social Economic and Environment (RCSEE) Heritage Building 3rd floor, West Wing, Jalan Pattimura No. 20, South Jakarta INDONESIA Phone/Fax +62 21 72784644 Website : http://sosekling.pu.go.id Email : sosekling@pu.go.id ii PREFACE Infrastructure performance plays key role of global competitiveness. In order to assure infrastructure performance, sustainability is a must. Some characteristics of sustainable infrastructure are socially accepted, delivering maximum economic impact, and environmental friendly. RCSEE, as a research centre under the Ministry of Public Works has been establishing institutional reforms on long-term research programming, joint collaboration and research initiatives, capacity building, and social laboratory & database development in order to support sustainable infrastructure development through its research projects. In the upcoming years, a number of strategic issues on infrastructure development have been identified to produce significant impacts to social aspects, economic benefits, and the environment. Social conflicts frequently occurred due to the current land acquisition and resettlement programs which predominantly focus on the physical relocation rather than restoring the livelihoods of the displaced people, no tools/instruments available to accurately assess economic impacts of infrastructure development, and the visible impacts of climate change have urged government agencies, private sectors, NGOs, and community groups to work hand-in-hand to increase local resilience by maximizing adaptive capacity on the one hand, and improving mitigation technology, on the other. This international seminar has attracted interest from researchers, experts, and academia from all over the world. There are 23 manuscripts submitted to the Committee. Having been reviewed, 9 papers will be presented at the seminar, and 7 will be displayed at poster session. The paper included in this proceedings deal with major areas in the field of infrastructure competitiveness and sustainability such as Conflict Resolution, Economic Impact Assessment, and Environmental Vulnerability and Resilience. We would like to take this opportunity to express our sincere appreciation to the members of Technical Advisory Committee who helped review the papers and maintained high standards for the international seminar proceedings. December 2014 iii TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE Chairman Prof. (R) Dr. Ir. R. Pamekas (Indonesia) Members Prof (R). Dr. Simon Sembiring Brahmana (Indonesia) Prof. (R). Dr. Effendi Pasandaran (Indonesia) Ir. Puthut Samyahardja, CES (Indonesia) Ir. Agus Bari S, M.Sc (Indonesia) Dr. Andi Suriadi (Indonesia) STEERING COMMITTEE Chairman Ir. Waskito Pandu, M. Sc (Head of Research And Development Agency on Ministry Public Works) Members Ir. Lolly Martina M, MT (Head of Research Centre of Social Economic and Environment) I Kadek Dian Sutrisna, Ph.D (University of Indonesia) Ir. A. Hafid Gany iv ORGANIZING COMMITTEE Chairman Ir. Riana Suwardi, M.Si Co-Chairman Ir. M. Wahabi, M.Si. Member Ir. Achjat Dwiatno, M.Eng. Dra. Retno Sinarwati, MT. Moch. Isa Iskandar Sabana., SE., M. Si Ni Wayan Sumila Dewi, SE Appun Ubawaty, ST Ir. Ridwan Marpaung, MT Adji Krisbandono, ST., M.Sc Aldina Rani Lestari, SIP Sandi Previadiati, SE., ME Zafira Nadida, ST Novi Arteti, ST Leni Ferilia, SE Enfy Diana Dewi, ST., MUP R. Sutjipta, S.Sos Tomi Hendratno, ST Dwi Rini Hartati, ST Nuryadi Rida Wiryati Aditya Anwar, SH., MPP Widiani Purnomosari, ST., MSE., MA Nieke Permanik, S.Sos., MT Nino Heri Setyoadi, S. Sos., M. S Dicky Fransisco, SIP Andrio Firstiana S., SE., MM M. Andri Hakim, SE., M. Akt Yenni Nur‟aini, SE., MT., MSc Alia Rainy D, ST, M.Sc, M. Eng Dimas Hastama Nugraha, ST., M. Eng Ratih Putri R., ST v TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE .......................................................................................................................................... iii TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE ................................................................................... iv STEERING COMMITTEE ............................................................................................................. iv ORGANIZING COMMITTEE ........................................................................................................ v TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................. vi OPENING SPEECH ....................................................................................................................... viii COMMITTEE REPORT .................................................................................................................. x Sustainability Considerations In Accelerating Infrastructure Development: Enhancing The Interdisciplinary Approach ..................................................................................................... 13 Public Expenditure On Climate Resilient Infrastructure: Opportunities For Innovation And Experimentation ...................................................................................................................... 14 Community Resilience of Water Resource Crisis in Small Islands: Case Study in Solor Island and Semau Island ................................................................................................................. 39 Conceptual Model of Green Infrastructure Implementation ...................................................... 51 Erase Vulnerability, Improve Food Security Policy in Indonesia with Innovation Synergy.............................................................................................................................................. 59 Brubuh: A Traditional Method To Keep Environmental Sustainability In Javanese Society ............................................................................................................................................... 68 Before-after Social Perception Differences with the Existence of Green Open Space Conversion ........................................................................................................................................ 78 Water Pumping System (WPS) For Supporting Community Activities And Infrastructure Sustainability .......................................................................................................... 91 Effect of Approaches for Changes of Citizen Attitude Towards Solid Waste Landfill and Incinerators .................................................................................................................................... 100 Influence Identification Of Economy And Demographic Factors To Waste Generation In West Java Indonesia ................................................................................................................. 112 Evaluation Of Pakerisan Watershed Characteristics In Establishing Management Model With The Principle Of One River, One Plan, And One Management Principal On Water Resources Protection ................................................................................................... 123 Conflict Resolution through Mediation: Case Study in a Dam and Hydropower Project ..... 138 Trans Sumatra Highway As The Economic Backbone Of Sumatra ......................................... 146 Infrastructure, Accessibility, And Kotadesasi Effects After Decentralization: Contributions Of Cities To Rural Economic Development On Sulawesi And In Other Island Regions Of Indonesia ......................................................................................................... 164 Rural-Urban Linkage, Rural Road, and Livelihood. ................................................................. 204 vi Analyzing User Perspective For Toll Road Service Quality Improvement (Case Study Of Surabaya Metropolitan Toll Road)......................................................................................... 218 Sustainability of Infrastructures In Urban Areas: Is Road Pricing a Stand-Alone Policy? ............................................................................................................................................. 231 An Appraisal of Sustainable Financing of District Road Maintenance in Indonesia .............. 252 vii OPENING SPEECH By Director General of Research and Development Agency The Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing 1. Honorable Senior Advisor for Social Culture and Community Participation, the Minister of Public Works & Public Housing; 2. Honorable Keynote Speaker, Dr. Rico Ancog, from Environmental Science and Management, the University of Phillipines Los Banos; 3. Honorable speakers, distinguished guests, and participants. Assalamu‘alaikum Warahmatullahi Wabarakatuh, Om Swastiastu Good morning and May the Almighty God give us joy and prosperity Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen, I would like to warmly welcome you to “International Seminar on Innovations in Accelerating Infrastructure Competitiveness and Sustainability” in Bali. This theme has been selected after a series of discussions made by our seminar committee, to acknowledge the role of sustainable infrastrucutre in accelerating national competitiveness. Global Competitiveness Report 2013-2014, positioned Indonesia on 38th rank among 148 countries while on 2012 ranked 50th among 144 countries. This upgrade was in line with infrastructure rank increase from 78th to 61st rank. The theme focuses on three sub themes: conflict resolution, economic impact assessment, and environmental vulnerability and resilience. This reflects the fact that Indonesia‟s New Administration under the newly elected President Joko Widodo is pushing infrastructure development; not only to endorse economic growth, but also to give as much as benefit to the community and and environment. Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing has executed a lot of infrastructure development since 40 years ago. On a number of occasions, infrastructure development targets have been pointed out. For example: 25 dams will be developed within the next 5 years to support national food security program, the eradication of slum areas in cities by 0% in 2019, and connecting roads to deal with rural-urban linkage, and intra and interregion connectivity which specifically supports national transportation and logistics system (SISTRANAS & SISLOGNAS). Having recognized these targets, it is then concluded that if no innovative measures are taken into account, these may affect the social and environmental aspects. Social problems impeding infrastructure development frequently occur due to conflict of stakeholders‟ interests. For example: in the current land acquisition and resettlement programs predominantly focuses on the physical relocation rather than restoring the livelihoods of the displaced people. We also observe that instruments to accurately assess economic impacts of infrastructure development are limited. And last, but not least, the viii visible impacts of climate change have urged government agencies, private sectors, NGOs, and community groups to work hand–in–hand to increase local resilience by maximizing adaptive capacity on the one hand, and improving mitigation technology, on the other. Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen, I am privileged to have among us experts, researchers, and academia, from across the spectrum. We are indebted to all speakers, presenters, and participants, who have spent a great deal of time preparing for this event. We deeply appreciate your breaking away from busy day-to-day schedules to participate in this seminar. However, we are confident that, this seminar will benefit us with the exchange of knowledge and experiences. During this seminar, we shall be looking at these and many other topical issues that relate to infrastructure development, as well as innovative measures to accelerate its competitiveness and sustainability. At the same time, we shall accommodate various issues which are also closely related to infrastructure development, such as climate change, rural-urban linkages, and how the provision of infrastructure meshes in with these. We welcome full, free and frank exchanges in all our discussions. It is only with an open, wholehearted approach that a meeting like this will be truly effective in enabling us to improve our knowledge and understanding. Finally, with saying Bismillahirrahmanirrahim, I officially open International Seminar on Innovations in Accelerating Infrastructure Competitiveness and Sustainability. Wishing you productive and constructive seminar discussions. Thank you. Wassalamu‘alaikum Warahmatullahi Wabarakatuh, Om Shanti Shanti Shanti Om Director General of R & D Agency Ir. Waskito Pandu, M.Sc ix COMMITTEE REPORT Director of Research Center for Social Economic and Environment, the Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing 1. Honorable Director General of Research and Development Agency, the Minister of Public Works & Public Housing; 2. Honorable Senior Advisor for Social Culture and Community Participation, the Minister of Public Works & Public Housing; 3. Honorable Keynote Speaker, Dr. Rico Ancog, from Environmental Science and Management, the University of Phillipines Los Banos; 4. Honorable speakers, distinguished guests, and participants Assalamu‘alaikum Warahmatullahi Wabarakatuh, Om Swastiastu Good morning and May the Almighty God give us joy and prosperity Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen, On behalf of the Organizing Committee, it is my pleasure and privilege to welcome all the distinguished speakers, guests, and participants to this International Seminar. I also wish to take this opportunity to welcome Dr. Rico Ancog, our Keynote Speaker from Environmental Science and Management, the University of Phillipines Los Banos, who has also been our partner from the International Federation of Social Science Organization (IFSSO). We shall hear his experiences on what to consider accelerating infrastructure development from a multidisciplinary approach. Thus, the Seminar attempts to discuss issues, approaches, and methods that are closely linked to infrastructure development from 3 (three) different perspectives: 1. Environmental Vulnerability and Resilience discusses how local resilience and adaptive measures cope with climate change impacts; 2. Conflict Resolution acknowledges best practices to resolve conflicts on irrigation and energy sector; and 3. Economic Impact Assessment explores approaches to assess rural-urban linkages, intraregion economic development, connectivity, and accessibility via road development. Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen, Prior to the seminar, the Steering Committee has carried out a number of preparation activities, from announcing the call for paper to research centers, universities, and government agencies, up to paper selection. There are 23 manuscripts submitted to the Committee. Having been reviewed, 9 papers will be presented at the seminar, and 7 will be displayed at poster session. The Reviewers are selected for their scientific backgrounds and expertise, which consists of professors and senior researchers from the Ministry of Public Works & Public Housing, the Ministry of Agriculture, and Institute for Economic and Social Research, University of Indonesia (LPEM UI). x I should also inform you that around 200 experts, researchers, and academia from research centers, universities, and government agencies have been invited to the Seminar; including our partners from IFSSO, University of Melbourne, World Bank, the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Environment and Forestry, Agency for Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT), Indonesian Institute of Science (LIPI), Graduate Program of Management of Infrastructure and Community Development, University of Gadjahmada (PIPM UGM), LPEM UI, etc. To conclude, I would kindly ask Director General of R & D Agency, Bapak Ir. Waskito Pandu M.Sc. to give his opening speech and to officially open the Seminar. I wish you a fruitful discussion on our sessions, and have a joyful stay in Bali. Thank you. Wassalamu‘alaikum Warahmatullahi Wabarakatuh, Om Shanti Shanti Shanti Om Ir. Lolly Martina Martief, MT. Director of RSCEE xi Keynote Speakers 12 Sustainability Considerations In Accelerating Infrastructure Development: Enhancing The Interdisciplinary Approach Dr. Rico Ancog School of Environmental Science and Management University of the Philippines Los Baños ABSTRACT : Amidst the recent global financial crisis, Southeast Asian countries are projected to grow economically competitive in terms of medium-growth rates. Indonesia and the Philippines lead the ASEAN with a projected average annual growth rate in 2014-2018 of 6.0% and 5.8% respectively (OECD, 2014). Strong investment to infrastracture development is viewed as one of the factors that may drive this anticipated event. Recent history of infrastructure development, however, describes an unsustainable growth that often emphasizes capital investments to financial and physical structures. The principles of sustainable development— of which many of the national policy frameworks are now grounded on— indicate that infrastructure development needs to fully account social, economic, and environmental considerations. Aside from the commonly perceived environmental and socioeconomic impacts, contemporary developmental challenges necessitate an integrated framework to infrastructure development. In order to truly operationalize an integrative analysis, the concepts, priciples, and methods from the natural, social, and physical sciences must be maximized in addressing the inherent complexity and uncertainty of infrastructure issues---an approach that transcends disciplinary boundaries is conceptualized. This methodology referred to as an interdisciplinary approach seeks to understand complexity and diversity of the system to provide pragmatic and reflexive solutions to societal problems (www.transdisciplinarity.ch). Achieveing interdisciplinarity is difficult but the challenge may be aided by establishing a relationship based on mutual communication of ideas, observations, and innovations among and between bodies of knowledge including the academe, government, non-government organizations, community, and end-users. 13 Environment Vulnerability and Resillience 14 Public Expenditure On Climate Resilient Infrastructure: Opportunities For Innovation And Experimentation Venkatachalam Anbumozhi Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), Jakarta, Indonesia Email: v.anbumozhi@eria.org ABSTRACT : Developing countries of the Asia-Pacific Region, as a group, are the ones most threatened by the climate change. Although climate change will have impacts that can be positive for other regions, the most significant impacts are expected to be negative for the region. This is because many of these countries lie in those regions where climate change related effects including flooding, drought, tropical cyclones, and ecosystem destruction will be more damaging affecting the production activities within natural resource management sectors. Furthermore, the region is more vulnerable to climate change due to weak institutions and their ability to respond to adverse impacts is often limited. If not addressed immediately, this has the potential to undermine economic growth In a context common to many countries in the region, a proliferation of financing mechanisms and various donor-government dialogues on how to address climate change had been emerging. These discussions had often been fragmented and typically taking place amongst environment or climate change specialists, but not yet rooted in key national debates on how the government might best promote climate resilient development. The Climate Public Expenditure Evaluation was done to help countries to review how their own stated national climate change policy aims were being reflected in public expenditures more broadly and how institutions might be adjusted to ensure that financing a response to climate change is delivered in a coherent way across government. It was anticipated that such an analysis would provide a useful starting point for longer term government-led multi-stakeholder dialogue on how the government might utilize increased financing as part of the national response to climate change. This was done for Nepal, Bangladesh, Thailand, Samoa and Cambodia. With five countries analyzed and further such analysis already in the pipeline in Indonesia, Timor-Leste and Viet Nam; it is an opportune moment to review this body of work and promote learning. In this regard, this paper provides a (i) comparative analysis of public expenditure on climate change in five economies of Asia (ii) the adaptive capacity and institutional settings that have emerged from the countries and (iii) the recommendations that have been made to take the work 15 forward at country and regional level. Proposals are also made for potential complimentary analysis and support that would be necessary to take the public expenditure analysis forward.. Key words: Climate change, Resilient Infrastructure, public expenditure, policy integration, capacity building. 1. INTRODUCTION Developing countries of the Asia-Pacific Region, as a group, are the ones most threatened by the climate change. Although climate change will have impacts that can be positive for other regions, the most significant impacts are expected to be negative for the region (ADB, 2009: ADB, 2010). This is because many of these countries lie in those regions where climate change related effects including flooding, drought, tropical cyclones, and ecosystem destruction will be more damaging affecting the production activities within natural resource management sectors. Furthermore, the region is more vulnerable to climate change due to weak institutions and their ability to respond to adverse impacts is often limited. If not addressed immediately, this has the potential to undermine economic growth. Enhancing the adaptive capacity is therefore essential to reduce vulnerability to adverse effects. Adaptive capacity building framework was scoped in COP 7 Parties (Marrakech, 2001), in which developed and developing nations designed a roadmap for adaptive capacity building actions. It stressed that capacity building is a country-driven and results-oriented process that specifically addresses countries‟ needs and reflects their national strategies for sustainable development (UNFCCC, 2001).It is also underlined point that capacity building should be implemented in a flexible and manner to encourage its cost-effectiveness evaluation. However, adaptation to climate change has not yet become high priority policy issue in most part of the Asia-Pacific, as policy makers are preoccupied with other developmental priorities. Improbability is often cited as a reason for inaction and could be interpreted as the case of limited knowledge on cost effective best practices. Adaptation strategies are also largely being dealt in isolation from other developmental issues. In order to mainstream adaptation into developmental planning, policies should be integrated at sectoral and local levels, rather than designing separated ones. Efforts to mainstream adaptation may find resistance, particularly in the sectors directly related to economic and social development, as commonly there are tradeoffs between climate 16 change adaptation and economic development. Resilience needs therefore to be enhanced through building regional, national, and institutional commitment, as well as technical and scientific capacity. In this regard, this paper provides a (i) comparative analysis of public expenditure on climate change in five economies of Asia (ii) the adaptive capacity and institutional settings that have emerged from the countries and (iii) the recommendations that have been made to take the work forward at country and regional level. Proposals are also made for potential complimentary analysis and support that would be necessary to take the public expenditure analysis forward. Climate Change Vulnerability And Resilient Infrastructure In order to design adaptive strategies, it is necessary to assess the vulnerability of sector to climate change. Unfortunately, there is not a single universally accepted definition of vulnerability. Several papers presented in this book describe various approaches to vulnerability assessment and adaptive capacity. A general definition that has emerged from regional capacity building workshops conducted by ADBI on Climate Change Adaptation, are shown in Figure 1. This framework links human resource development to climate through the key concept of adaptive capacity. Climate Change and Variability Sensitivity • Food • Water • Settlement • Health • Ecosystem Exposure Adaptative Capacity • Technical capacity • Human Resources • Economic capacity Vulnerability and Resilience Coping strategy Figure 1: Adaptative capacity conceptual framework According to UN Conference on Environment and Development, capacity building refers to the ability to plan, evaluate, and implement strategies and measures towards 17 sustainable development, based on an understanding of environmental potentials and limits and needs of local communities (UNCED, 1992). Thus it supports country-led initiatives, such as national communications, national capacity self-assessments, national adaptation programs of action, and policy gap assessments. Adaptive capacity is the ability to adapt. It is a function of the countries‟ stock of infrastructure, human resources, technology base, educational system, research capacity, natural resource base, the structure of its economy, and many other determinants. But this is key intervention point for developmental planning. Strengthening adaptive capacity to deal with the variability of climate change induced negative impacts comprises the sum of actions taken to change in behaviors, shift priorities, produces necessary goods and services and to plan and respond in those ways that reduce harmful climate change impacts or transform them into no-regret economic opportunities. Adaptive Capacity in the region: past, present and future Given the risks and the scale of potential impacts of climate change, serious efforts are underway in most parts of the Asia Pacific Region. Actions are classified as structural and non-structural measures. Structural measures (often referred as hard measures) include physical construction of infrastructure or application of engineering techniques to reduce the intensity of possible climate change derived hazards. Non-structural measures (or soft measures), on the other hand, aim at changing behaviors, methods and practices to cope with risks and impacts of climate change, Table 1 summarizes various structural and non-structural measures of adaptation being implemented in different countries of the Asia-Pacific region. Among these approaches, a key issue is the identification of successful cost effective adaptation practices. First of all it is necessary to distinguish adaptation by who is undertaking it and the interests of the diverse stakeholders involved. It is clear that countries and communities will adapt and have been adapting to climate change over the course of human history. Vulnerability to climate change can act as a driver for adaptive resource management. There are various scales and actors involved in adaptation. Some adaptation by individual communities is undertaken in response to climate threats, often triggered by individual extreme events (Ribot et al., 1996). Other adaptation is undertaken by governments sometimes in anticipation of change but again, often in response to individual events. 18 But these levels of decision-making are not independent – they are embedded in planning process or social development processes that reflect the relationship between institutes, individuals, their networks, capabilities and social capital. (Adger, 2001). Sometimes a distinction is drawn between planned adaptation, assumed to be undertaken by governments and autonomous adaptation by communities. Realising that action is required to enhance the adaptive capacity of the most vulnerable sectors, efforts should be focused on identifying generic determinants of adaptive capacity which may vary from country to country. These determinants include the social capital of societies, the flexibility and innovation in the institutions of government and the private sector to grasp opportunities associated with climate change. 19 Table 1. Overview of Ongoing Adaptation related Actions and Policies in Asian Plans Country Adaptation Actions and Policies Bangladesh Structural: flood management schemes; irrigation schemes; Non-structural: Climate Change Action Plan (2009-2018); established a Climate Change Cell; developed a network of 34 „focal points‟ in various government agencies, research and other organizations; created flood-warning systems; expanding communitybased disaster preparedness; established agricultural research programs to develop saline, drought and flood-adapted high-yielding crops. Structural: river bank modification, crop diversification. Cambodia Non-structural: released a NAPA in 2006 which identifies water management, and vulnerability assessments and adaptation measures in coastal areas as priorities. Submitted its INC to UNFCCC in 2002. Its 2nd Socio-Economic Development Plans (SEDP II) briefly acknowledges the negative impacts of climate change. The Royal Decree on the Creation and Designation of Protected Areas (1993), the Law on Environmental Protection and Natural Resource Management (1996), and the Forestry Law (2002) are relevant to environment and sustainable development but do not explicitly mention climate change. Fiji Islands Structural: watershed management project for drought-prone sugarcane growth regions; Integrated Coastal Zone Management Programme Non-structural: Fiji Islands Climate Change Response report (2005); national vulnerability assessment study, community based adaptation strategy actions (LMMA) to support the survival of local communities and protect marine resources; adaptation project (on going) to reduce the vulnerability of the tourism industry. Non-structural: 2007 National Development Planning Response to Climate Change (NDPRCC), 2007 NAPCC and the Climate Indonesia Change Roadmap (March 2010) Structural: crop improvement, drought proofing, livelihood preservation; disaster management programs. India Non-structural: first NAPCC report (2008); increasing awareness and education; risk financing; health; National Environment Policy 2006. Kazakhstan Structural: integrated water management; community-based adaptation measures regarding rehabilitation of natural rangeland ecosystems, stabilization of slope-wash, introduction of pasture-rotation methods and changing crop patterns, reduction of landdegradation pressures. 20 Lao PDR Malaysia Maldives Mongolia Myanmar Nepal Non-structural: awareness raising campaigns; fostering local institutions for cooperative community management; designing multidisciplinary pro-sustainable development policies, mainly in agriculture, forestry, fishery, and water sectors. Structural: flood and drought mitigation programs; construction of irrigation systems. Non-structural: NAPA Report; establishing the National Strategy Committee on Climate Change Chair; rolling out early warning system and training; improving community-based educational campaigns; Disaster Management Strategic Plan (2003). Structural: enlarging reservoir capacities; improving hydrological forecasting; promoting widespread use of groundwater; changing land-use practices; developing demand-side management for water resources; creating buffer zones in agriculture and forestry industries to minimize erosion and sedimentation; constructed the multi-purpose Smart Tunnel which is used as both a motorway and flood-diversion channel. Non-structural: completed its INC in 2000 and SNC is expected to be completed by this year (2010); 2009 National climate change policy; formulating Clean Air Action Plan, establishing technical secretariat for CDM; incorporated climate change projects into the 9th Malaysia Plan; establishing an inventory of agricultural GHG emissions; conducting lifecycle assessments and renewable energy research. Structural: developing coastal protection of designated safer islands and the Male‟ International Airport; flood control measures. Non-structural: Maldives Climate Change Strategy (CCS); National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA); Population and Development Consolidation (PDC) program; carbon neutral policy; established a multidisciplinary National Climate Change Technical Team; strengthening health care capacities; improving education and awareness. Non-structural: National Action Programme on Climate Change (NAPCC), focusing the following sectors: pasture land, animal husbandry, arable farming, water resources, forests and soil degradation and desertification. Non-structural: hydrological research study and field survey of the 2008 Nargis Cyclone, including historical analysis of the magnitude and frequency of cyclones and cyclone tracks over time. Structural: water saving irrigation methods, upland land use changes Non-structural: preparing a NAPA; established a Climate Change Network and establishing a Himalayan Research Center; the Ministry of Home Affairs has drafted National Strategies for Disaster Risk Management; introduced mandatory EIA; developed a Three-year Interim Plan (2008 to 2010) to prioritize policies and strategies related to climate change in the development agenda; monitoring glaciers 21 Pakistan Philippines PRC Sri Lanka Thailand Structural: Water Resources Development Plan to improve flood control and protection, resource conservation cultivation, and high efficiency irrigation systems. Non-structural: 2000 Initial National Communication (INC) on climate change to UNFCCC; established the Presidential Taskforce on Climate Change (PTFCC) and other task groups (fisheries, watershed protection, water recycling, rainwater conservation, atmospheric activities, CPR economics, fossil fuels, information); progressing a Climate Change Bill for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into all government policies and programs; established a Philippine Government-UN joint-program MDG-F 1656: Strengthening the Philippines‟ Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change, which has already implemented 5 adaptation demonstration projects across the country. Structural: enhancing technology development and transfer in agriculture sector; improving livestock management; intensifying ecological agriculture in high-intensive production areas; enhancing water resource management. Non-structural: implementing regulations for improved agricultural production and increased agricultural ecosystem carbon storage; developing farmland and pasture protection construction plans; Structural: programs to improve crop and water management; distribution of flood-resistant crop varieties (2005-2008); PostTsunami Coastal Rehabilitation and Resource Management Program; improving fisheries. Non-structural: Enhancing training capacities; implementing the Soil Conservation Act; National Rain Water Policy. Structural: improving crop resilience, local-community water resource management and farming practices, and alternative livelihood and tourism activities. Non-structural: 2000 INC on climate change to UNFCCC and is currently in the middle stages of completing its Second National Communication (SNC); launched Thailand‟s Strategic Plan on Climate Change 2008-2012; established the Project Steering Committee (PSC); undertaking climate scenarios modeling; strengthening human resources and learning processes, social protection systems and empowering local communities; integrating adaptation measures with natural hazard reduction and disaster prevention programmes; established early warning and preparedness systems. Source: ADBI, 2009; PICCAP, 2005 22 An Overview of Progress in strengthening the Adaptive capacity at sectoral level As a part of the capacity building workshops, ADBI conducted a survey to understand the determinants of adaptive capacity of selected countries in the Asia and Pacific region, which is discussed bellow. The survey was addressed to the participants of the ADBI workshop on Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into Development Planning held from 14-17 April, 2009. The questionnaire encompass five sections focused on awareness raising on climate change vulnerabilities, policy endorsement, climate change impacts, operational measures on mainstreaming adaptation, and regional cooperation. The responses appearing in this report are not official responses, but rather the professional judgment of officials who are directly in charge of climate change adaptation related policies/projects. Out of 22 participants, 12 (55%) responded to the survey. Institutional awareness on the risks posed by climate change Any operational measures to integrate adaptation that can be developed and put in place by sectoral agencies require a certain degree of awareness of climate change and the risks it poses to development. It is therefore of great importance that sectoral agencies conduct awareness-raising measures on the risks posed by climate change, both internally and as part of their interaction with its stakeholders. The awareness-raising activities on climate change, however, vary considerably across countries in terms of emphasis, specificity, scope, and whether they are one time or recurrent. Almost all of the fifteen survey respondents, who are senior level policy makers, indicate that their agency has undertaken internal awareness-raising measures on climate change. Internal awareness-raising initiatives generally rely on a combination of written material and training seminars, while policy dialogues are also used in conjunction with written material and training courses to raise awareness on climate risks (Figure 2Source: ADBI 2009 Figure 2). A significant majority of respondents also report on similar measures being undertaken in partnership with other agencies. 0% Initiatives to raise awareness 25% 50% YES 75% 100% NO Policy dialogues Written material Training courses/seminars Other Source: ADBI 2009 Figure 2: Initiatives to raise awareness in other sectoral agencies The written material being used for this purpose includes publications produced by the research community, international organizations or the agency itself. They include brochures, flyers, posters, website contents, communication briefs, and e-mail distribution of news items on climate change. Some agencies disseminate information on broad themes such as sustainable development. 23 Besides written materials, a few agencies have mentioned other measures to improve the capacity on climate change adaptation. Training courses and seminars are also used by some agencies to raise awareness and it seems that international institutions like JICA, GTZ and regional development banks like ADB and its institutes ADBI and regional network such as Network of Asian River Basin Organizations (NARBO) are helping them to advance in this area. They are conducting, training courses for planning professionals on disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation issues, as well as capacity building seminars for relevant developing country government agencies and other related stakeholders (Box 1 ). Box 1 Network of Asian River Basin Organizations (NARBO) was established in 2004 by ADB, ADBI and Japan Water Agency. NARBO aims at strengthening the capacity and effectiveness of River Basin Organizations (RBOs) in promoting Integrated Water Resources management (IWRM) and improving water governance, through training and exchange of information and experiences. Addressing the needs of member organizations, NARBO has been organizing several regional capacity building events, attempting at raising awareness for IWRM and sharing good practices and lessons learnt for IWRM among RBOs. The Regional Workshop on Developing Partnerships for Water and Climate Change Adaptation was organized in Malaysia in 2008. The objective of the workshop was to increase understanding of the impacts of climate change on water management and develop partnerships for better results in climate change projections, impact assessments, and adaptation strategies. River improvement activities to adapt the impact of climate change and state-of-the-art forecasting rainfall systems such as down scaling model by using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Satellite were also shared. ADB and ADBI also offer the opportunity to introduce GIS and Satellite Information System to predict rainfall patters by organizing related workshops. (Source: NARBO) Field Visit at workshop in 2008 Multi-sectoral Initiatives Almost all of the surveyed respondents reported that their agencies include discussions on climate change in regular policy dialogues with other sectoral authorities. The relative emphasis joint actions depend upon several factors, including the level of sectoral interests of policy-makers, as well as contextual issues. In general, non-structural measures of adaptation tend to dominate in dialogues with middle income countries, while structural measures are a priority focus in the case of the most vulnerable countries such as small island states. In addition, several respondents have indicated that awareness in other sectors when adaptation 24 issues are included in country programming funded by external agencies. UN Agencies, for example, support partner countries in preparing National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) that identify priority responses to most urgent immediate adaptation needs. However, in terms of use of instruments such as risk-screening tools, guidelines for mainstreaming adaptation etc, only 8% reported using the instruments developed by other sectoral agencies/international organizations (Figure 3Source: ADBI 2009 Figure 3). The result implies that the initiatives to achieve sector-wide commitments to work together have been taken in the absence of shared instruments. 0% Collaborations with other sectoral agencies Use of Instruments developed by YES other sectoral agencies 25% 50% 75% 100% YES NO NA Source: ADBI 2009 Figure 3: Collaboration and use of instruments among sectoral agencies High-level policy endorsement There is an interdependent relationship between the degree of internal awareness amongst agency staff of the challenges posed by climate change and the level of policy endorsement at senior levels within the agency for the need to integrate adaptation into development activities. On the one hand, a certain level of climate change is often a prerequisite before the issue reaches the high-level policy agenda. On the other hand, high-level policy endorsement of the need to take climate risks into account can, in turn, further enhance the level of awareness across the agency and provide both the impetus and the enabling environment for operationalizing adaptation activities. Therefore, high-level policy endorsement is an important criterion for monitoring progress in this area. A majority of the surveyed officials report to having such high-level policy endorsement – at the agency/national level. There are a number of high-level national policy initiatives with broad environmental objectives and developmental priorities. Climate change adaptation is explicitly or implicitly contained within these broader mandates. Some countries like Peoples Republic of China and India have their Medium-term Policy on Policies to address urgent adaption issues. Those document outlines, among other issues, cross sectoral efforts in dealing with adaptation challenges. With the goal to advancing the adaptation agenda, Ministries of Environment established experts committee for (i) building and enhancing adaptive capacity; (ii) enhancing collaboration among the sectoral agencies. As indicated in Figure 4 such initiatives range from agreements with broader environmental and development 25 objectives, to climate change initiatives comprising both mitigation and adaptation issues, to specific agreements aiming at integrating climate change adaptation into developmental planning. Internation al Cooperati Awarenes on s 8% 8% Disaster 17% Overall developm ent 17% Energy 8% Agriculture / Food 34% Water 8% Source: ADBI 2009 Figure 4: Current Focus of adaptation activities Mainstreaming climate change adaptation Even though all the countries are well aware about the consequences of climate change, they have limited capacity to design and implement the adaptation programs to avoid the risk of climate change at a scale required. When inquired about priorities in mainstreaming adaptation, respondents stressed the urgency of taking actions related to scientific and technical skills enhancement (e.g.: analytical studies and new technologies) (24%), inventory of baseline data (17%), increasing awareness (17%), and promoting cross-border cooperation (17%) (Figure 5Source: ADBI 2009 Figure 5). NA 25% Study and New Technology 24% Aw areness 17% Crossborder Approache s 17% Baseline Data 17% Source: ADBI 2009 Figure 5: Priorities in Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation In respect to the assessment on climate change risk, 83% of the respondents had conducted assessment on implications of climate change on their activities (e.g. country / regional / sectoral strategies; technical co-operation, projects), 92% had conducted assessment on 26 documents (e.g. country strategies, policy, project descriptions whether they make reference to climate change impacts and vulnerabilities), and 34% had conducted assessment on exposure of investments (e.g. the proportion of its activities in sectors that are potentially affected by climate change). The results as summarized in Figure 6 highlights that the current attention of assessments are not climate change risk on financing but risk on activities and policies. However the impact on distribution of finance in the sectors by exposure of investment should not be underestimated. Source: ADBI 2009 Figure 6. Trend in assessment on climate change risk But there are few examples of integrated approach for climate change adaptation. Environmental policy instruments for example, not specifically identify the integration of sectoral issues –particularly– into national development planning as a priority for budgeting. More specific avenues for policy integration include (i) integrating disaster prevention and adaptation into all relevant developmental activities; (ii) launching a programme on adaptation in agriculture including financial support to a research programme; (iii) providing financial support to the least developed areas under adaptation agenda (iv) supporting the adaptation pillar of co-benefits. Other barriers to mainstreaming climate change adaptation are summarized in Box 2: Box 2: Barriers to Mainstreaming Limited understanding of the nature and extent of risks and vulnerabilities, or lack of credible climate information. Available climate information is often not directly relevant for development related decisions. Lack of information on the economics of good adaptation measures, or simply an absence of knowledge on available „no regret‟ strategies. Trade-off between climate and development objectives exists. Lack of available funds or restricted access to finance. Segmentation within governments, no strong supportive policies, standards, regulations, etc. Differences in willingness to accept uncertainties. 27 Funding modalities are not well established. Difficult for adaptation efforts to attract resources compared to more visible activities such as emergency response, disaster recovery and reconstruction (ADBI, 2009) Strategic Approaches in Strengthening Adaptive Capacity A country‟s ability to undertake actions to tackle climate risk is largely a function of its adaptive capacity. Figure 7Source: Gagnon-Lebrun and Agrawala 2006 Figure 7 shows the grouping of countries in three tiers based on their adaptive capacity. To be most effective, adaptation must proceed with specific strategies at several levels simultaneously. Adaptation is in fundamental way inherently local- the direct impacts of climate change are felt locally, and adaption measures must be tailored to local circumstances. However, for these efforts to be robust they must be guided and supported by national policies and strategies. For some countries, these, in turn, need to be facilitated through international measures. Source: Gagnon-Lebrun and Agrawala 2006 Figure 7: Classification of countries’ adaptative capacity Enhancing adaptive capacity at sectoral level could involve the several stages as discussed in chapter 1. The distinction between specific adaptations and enhanced adaptive capacity may not be clear in the initial stages. However, effective capacity building strategies must rest on acquiring the best available climate information on the nature and severity of likely impacts over different timeframes in given locales, and on the cost and efficacy of possible adaptation measure. Hence, an overriding priority is strengthening capacities in building awareness to understand potential climate impacts and devising response strategies. Some capacity building activities are no-regret -for instance, resources and training to integrate adaptation considerations into development planning; expanded research into alternative crops or cropping patterns; or the strengthening of public health systems. Here, 28 again, these are steps with multiple benefits beyond climate adaptation. Many specific adaptations can be quite effective in reducing certain risks. For example, cyclone shelters in Bangladesh have proven very effective in reducing loss of lives during climate induced disasters. However, specific adaptations deliver fewer ancillary benefits. In addition, where adaptive capacity is limited, the potential benefits of specific adaptations may be quite limited. For example, an early warning system of limited value if the users at risk have no economic capacity to respond. So testing of such measures through pilot programs is critical. One indicator of successful adaptive capacity is to ensure that strategic adaptation actions are mainstreamed in developmental planning which correspondingly advances adaptive capacity. Collectively, these efforts must meet a wide range of interrelated needs. In considering how best to address these needs, the sectoral planners faces a host of difficult issues stemming from the underlying institutional contexts for adaptation decision-making and action, and inherent limits on available resources-all compounded by politically sensitive questions of responsibility and equity. Actors and Stakeholders in Strengthening the Adaptive Capacity The range of actors and their specific role in enhancing the adaptive capacity depends on the specific context or issue being addressed. In a generic sense, however, there are many commonalities across them. These broad groups of organizational types that will be important to work with are: 1. Policy making agencies operating across sectors at different levels 2. Scientific and educational research institutions particularly those with interdisciplinary programmes 3. Private sector organizations, particularly those involved in the climate proofing infrastructure development and services 4. Civil society and community-based organizations 5. International organizations The above mix of actors reflects the capacities required to catalyze adaptation at scale required to avoid climate risks in a cost –effective way. Local and regional governments are, however, likely to be the governmental entities most directly familiar with and involved in adaptation activities. Research and educational networks operating across and within sectors and interdisciplinary scientific and educational organizations are essential for cross-sectoral and international learning and to link knowledge generation with major decision-making processes. Since much adaptation will occur in the future and also in a pro-active way, involvement of the private sector is central to achieving impacts at scale. Finally, international organizations that combine the flexibility required for testing of innovative approaches with the explicit focus on vulnerable populations is critical. The specific role of these groups could bring to a programme of adaptive capacity are discussed further below. Policy making agencies operating across and within sectors at national, sub national and level National governments are the key players particularly in climate negotiations in all the countries of the region. Within national governments there are often innovative actors at 29 multiple levels that can contribute significantly. However capacities of national governments to play a significant role in climate change adaptation differ across the region. In addition to national government entities that are designated as nodal points for activities related to climate change, three types of agencies are of particular importance First, Economic Planning Agencies could play an important role in climate change adaptation. In India, for example, the Planning Commission has become a key player in adaptation responses and in coordinating across different sectoral agencies. Stronger involvement of economic or planning ministries to lead coordinated planning has been raised as a possible strategy in some South East Asian countries. In PRC, the National Development Reform Commission, which is already the coordinating authority and its climate mandate, plays a significant role. Second, sector Specific Agencies, because much adaptation is likely to occur through sector specific development processes, the agencies that are constrained specific engagement with those systems will be of particular importance. Third, local governments play a significant role in climate change adaptation across the region. In all areas, the factors that constrain and enable both autonomous and planned adaptation will be heavily influenced by location specific conditions. As a result, improving the capacity of local governments will be particularly important. Scientific and educational research institutions, particularly those with multidisciplinary programs The scientific research community in most countries across the region has primarily focusing their efforts on climate change forecasting at national level. Quantitative modeling is an essential tool to assess climate change impacts, estimate systems sensitivity in response to climate change extremes, and reduce uncertainties concerning forecasts and cost-benefits of adaptation measures (OECD, 2006). Frequently developing countries with limited scientific capacity are compelled to apply generic and global methods, which do not necessarily fulfill their needs. Therefore global climate models need to be downscaled, taking under consideration regional data, increasing participation of local research centers and scientists, and inclusion local communities‟ knowledge on local climate change events (present and historical perspective). Inventory activities and field campaigns must be sponsored to fulfill knowledge gaps in observing networks and data collection methodologies. Although significant attempts have been carried out to develop methodologies and models to focus on Asian ecosystems, this field is still under investigated and mainly focused to crops productivity simulation as described in Anbumozhi et al. (2003) and Reddy et al. If these models expand their evaluation spectrum to include other biophysical and non-physical variables (social and economic impacts), they will become a reliable and accurate tool to support decision making processes. By this end multidisciplinary teams must be formed (Anbumozhi et al., 2001). Scientists, who measure physical impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies, should work along with economists and social scientists, requesting the need to include economic impacts and the perspectives of local communities. However lacking of programming skills and insufficient expertise about prediction of climate events, due to short term basis activities, result in untrustworthy surveys that do not support policymaker decisions There are also regional level research networks such as START, APN and EEPSEA that support regional level research. Organizations such as those will be among the most 30 important for implementing any research and educational programme. Building the capacity of educational and scientific institutions will be particularly important for those (1) well concerned with current policy environment; and (2) that produce the graduates who ultimately populate government, national sector or policy organizations, and private business entities. Such organizations train future generations of sector-specific and integrating planning and economic development experts – i.e. the individuals who will ultimately “actualize” systems. An indicative system of such capacity building programs is illustrated in Table 2. Table 2: CBT indicators towards climate change adaptation mainstreaming Indicators Internation New Integratio Stakeholder Disseminatio al knowledge n s n partnership (2) Books/Websites (3) Decision support systems (1) Workshops/seminars (4) Joint cross-sectoral actions (5) Guidelines/handbooks (6) Joint studies (7) Graduate courses Due to the wide array of issues involved actors that need to be influenced, partnerships that involve diverse combinations of academic, government actors, private sector and are likely to be particular importance in supporting adaptation at national level. Where such networks as illustrated in Figure 8 don‟t currently exist, encouraging their formation will have greater impact than attempting to work on a one to one basis with individual organizations however strong they may be. 31 Regional Regional Universities Universities Key Stakeholders Private Sector CBO Foreign Foreign Universities Universities Matching funds Ed u Pr cat og ion ra a l m Education & Science Sectoral Agencies Core funds Universities Universities Policy Community Disincentives rc Incentives h a se Re m ic ra em rog d a P Ac Po lic yD Pr eve og lo ra pm m e nt Policy PolicyResearch Research Institute Institute ag nk Li ch a m ar ogr e r s Re P e International International Organizations Organizations Figure 8: Cross-sectoral stakeholders’ involvement towards adaptative capacity building Open governance of these research and educational networks is essential – networks that confirm to national interests or demand consistency regarding the messages they communicate on “best practice” or the issues and approaches they treat as legitimate will not have the intellectual dynamism required to generate the wide array of insights required to catalyze effective strategies for climate adaptation. Such research and policy networks have unique regional and cross-sectoral engagement capacities, are often able to identify multiple points of entry or leverages, and are often capable of engaging in and replicating the results from learning strategies. Strengthening such networks and the institutions that actively engage with them is likely to have higher and more replicable returns than focusing on individual key organizations. 32 Box 3: A reality Check on the current status of scientific Capacity for CCA Lack of Programming skills – most research & educational activities undertaken are on a short term basis. Hardly long term planning is thought of to continue develop solutions to solve the problems. Inadequate monitoring & evaluation – Keen on activities but not enthusiastic in monitoring the impact of research & education. In adequate communication skills – For e.g., downscaling the climate forecast at sub-regional level and communicating with decision makers. Lack of effective networking, experience sharing, and dissemination skills. Inadequate leadership, governance & management capacities – undefined roles of team members and accountability. Inadequate capacities to raise adequate international resources, mobilize local resources, manage finances and effective reporting. (Anbumozhi, 2009) Private Sector The role of the private sector in promoting innovative pilot projects to strengthen the access and delivery of climate-related information through communication strategies needs to be further explored. The underlying systems that enable or constrain courses of action and the choices on adaptation will rely heavily on activities that fall within the private sector involvement of the private sector is, as a result, essential. Such involvement will flow most naturally from research processes that lead to courses of action that reflect the core business interests and models on which private sector activity is based (Figure 9). • Decreased agriculture productivity and food security at national and regional level • Increase water stress and/or water insecurity • Threats to human health • Threats to ecosystem services • Potential conflicts and political stability • Managing and/or mitigating risks • Minimising operative cost • Building resilience to shocks on supply chains • Harnessing new markets • Responding to stakeholder expectation • Partnering strategically with research community • Creating sector wide initiatives • Engaging in public policy and international advocacy Adaptation Challenge Business Case for Action Strategies to improve Adaptative Capacity Figure 9: The role of private sector in promoting adaptative capacity Direct business interests are the core reasons why insurance and energy industries are heavily involved in work on climate change while it has proved difficult to “involve” other private sector actors. Identifying points of entry that respond to the inherent logic driving private sector actors represents the core avenue for encouraging their involvement. From this perspective perhaps the most important private sector organizations to engage with are those involved in designing the climate proofed infrastructure and financing adaption practices. Business incubator programs have specific experience in taking small innovative initiatives 33 and driving them to scale using appropriate operational models. They also have specific skills in the innovation and incubations of organizations so that their products and services can be marketed at scale. Civil Society and Community Based Organizations The region is rich with examples of community-led natural resource management and development programmes (Box 4). Although not designed as climate change adaptation initiatives, they are indicative of adaptive mechanisms that could potentially be undertaken in drought, flood prone, coastal and mountain or upland areas. Social institutions such as cooperatives can also play a significant role in strengthening links with markets for better returns in small-scale enterprises. Box 4. The mediating role of institutions in the context of climate impacts – NGOs in the Philippines Local institutions play a key role in recovery after disasters by shaping the direction, effectiveness, and allocation of external assistance. An example of their critical role can be found among the work of NGOs in the Philippines. Between 1995 and 2000, more than 75 percent of the disasters and 95 percent of disasterrelated deaths in the Philippines were because of climate hazards: typhoons and tornadoes, flooding, and landslides being the most prominent hazards. Many development NGOs in the Philippines integrated relief and rehabilitation strategies into their action program. These strategies include socio-economic projects to reduce local vulnerability, mediation of the flow of government and international assistance, community-based disaster management, small scale infrastructure development, and training for capacity building. In one interesting case, NGOs staff focused on vulnerable communities to identify local leaders, conducted hazard and vulnerability analysis, initiated training related to disaster management, and established village level committees to foster effective disaster responses. Other NGOs have provided financial and technical assistance to help in community –based disaster management activities. These examples show the critical role of local institutions in any area-based effort to undertake adaptation measures. (Source: Luna, E. 2001) Bilateral and multilateral agencies support many national and international NGOs in the region. Their work has focused on development and livelihood related initiatives particularly linked to disaster risk reduction. Such organizations may play a particularly critical role in the innovation and incubation of new adaptation measures, strategies and pilot initiatives to support climate adaptation that can then be replicated at scale through private sector business models or public sector interventions. They may also play a particularly critical role in the development of climate related social protection initiatives that would otherwise fall below the radar screen of national governments and do not generate the profits required to catalyze private sector investment. International Organizations Effective adaptation response requires a wide array of international support. Three broad approaches of relevance to Asia Pacific region include: - Adaptation under the UN-mechanisms and support for proactive adaptation the convention by facilitating comprehensive national strategies and committing reliable funding for high-priority implementation projects. - Integrating Adaptation capacity building programs with developmental aid Factoring adaptation into development assistance through measures such as mandatory climate risk assessments for projects financed by multilateral and bilateral lenders. 34 Climate “insurance” - Committing public and private funds to support climate relief or insurance-type approaches in vulnerable countries for losses resulting from both climate change and climate variability. Each of these approaches, pursued independently, could contribute to national-level capacity to reduce or cope with climate risks. Together, these three strategies also could be seen as complementary elements of a comprehensive international effort-the first, supporting proactive planning and high-priority implementation; the second, promoting integration with the broader development agenda; and the third, providing a safety net to ameliorate unavoidable impacts. - Opportunities for Innovation and Experimentation There are many starting points for innovation and experimentation on the measures that can strengthen adaptive capacity for addressing impacts of climate change. The large amount of resources currently being used to improve the adaptive capacity is not well harmonized with efforts to increase the country preparedness to act on climate information or adaptation strategies. This is especially true among the most vulnerable sectors. The current emphasis on climate prediction and risk forecasting offers the development planners the opportunity to simultaneously embrace the recommendations of perfect information, vulnerability to hazards and vulnerability to outcome approaches through the process of communication. Even though they reflect very different views of political economy, the policies implied by these approaches are neither inconsistent nor mutually exclusive. The dissemination of predictions at sectoral and local level could be embedded in a larger process aimed at (i) seeking to facilitate the flow of available climate information, and identifying critical economic and social aspects of climate phenomenal that decision makers want to have predicted with better accuracy (ii) identifying and addressing the bottlenecks in the potential use of climate information (iii) exploring the opportunities to address to root cause of implementing adaptation measures. This integration can lead synergies between three policy approaches of climate information, decision capacity and financing as illustrated in Figure 10. Decision Making Capacity Climate Information Regional Cooperation for Integrated Approach Adaptation Finance Figure 10: An integrated approach for enhancing adaptive capacity There is an opportunity to integrate these three approaches, bringing together all levels of analysis in a search for short and long term risk reduction. The objective should be to foresee 35 climate related threats and reduce their negative effects, as well as to reduce the numerous other causes that make the direct climate events as disasters. Climate predictions – when combined with analysis of likely socio-economic costs are particularly well suited for attracting the attention of top level policy makers who tend to be both sensitive to and to have reason to be interested in, making decision on appropriate adaptive measure at a scale. Participatory workshops involving planning ministries can provide an opportunity for different sectoral agencies come together, learn the risks and benefits, identify and priorities the actions. There are evidences that this participatory approach can lead to significantly better decisions. Ultimately this approach could be expanded in its scope, aiming to build country wide resilience, as well as get attention of international organizations for funding. The synergies created by integrating the three policy streams could provide many positive feedbacks. For example, if potential decision maker of climate information identify ways to put that information in developing a new adaption strategy, they may become advocates for development of climatic knowledge and add strength to efforts aimed at securing resources for research and scientific capacity building. Public and private financiers who learn about useful climate information and economic soundness of adaption measures may also want to increase their access to other forms of information for their financial products, therefore improving the overall flow of information and decision-making capacity. To facilitate such a change, regional cooperation efforts need to be improved through the provision of expertise in the area of climate information. Sharing country experiences will help to build analytical, monitoring and decision making capacity. Such efforts will certainly include long-term economic strategies such as creating regional fund for adaptive capacity building. 2. CONCLUSIONS Enhancing the adaptive capacity of the Asia-pacific region is important to safeguard existing and future development progress in the light of current climate variability, the projected increase in extreme weather events and the development progress already being impact by climate change. Although the sectoral and macro policies are conducive to enhance the adaptive capacity, barriers both exist at the levels of organization and the enabling environment. The barriers include the availability of scientific information, lack of communication, absence of knowledge base on successful measures as well as financial resources. Strengthening adaptive capacity at a scale required could also prove difficult to carry out because of direct tradeoffs in certain cases between development priorities and the actions required to deal with climate change. In this regard, development planners need access to credible and context specific climate information as a basis for decisions and that is linked financing. In practice, structuring the adaptive process such that it is a series of graduated steps is often appropriate; beginning with screening to identify exposures, sensitivities, impacts, and adaptive capacities, followed by more detailed analyses in critical areas. Continued budget support for scientific capacity building and implementation of pilot projects is needed. Joint meetings with scientific and policy making community will ensure the enhanced capacity at the national level. Further actions include the broad engagement of stakeholders such as educational institutions, private sectors and community based 36 organizations in supporting climate change adaptation projects and promoting comprehensive capacity building programs. Bilateral and multilateral development partners are well positioned with finance and knowledge to play a catalytic role in strengthening adaptive capacity of sectors. Regional cooperation has a role to play in facilitating effective sharing of climate information, supporting institutional coordination, and moderating the required resources for enhancing the adaptive capacity. 3. REFERENCES Adger, W. N. 2001. Scales of governance and environmental justice for adaptation and mitigation of climate change, Journal of International Development 13(7), 921-931. Asian Development Bank (ADB). 2009. The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia: A Regional Review. Metro Manila. Asian Development Bank (ADB). 2010. Building Climate Resilience in the Agriculture Sector in Asia and the Pacific. International Food Policy Research Institute Metro Manila. ADBI. 2009. Questionnaire on Climate Change Adaptation. Survey conducted during the ADBI workshop on Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into Development Planning held from 14-17 April, 2009. Anbumozhi, V., Yamaji, E., Sato, J., and K. Ozawa. 2001. Interdisciplinary research in agricultural engineering: an alternative to address agro-environmental issues. Agricultural Engineering Journal 10 (1&2):91-103. Anbumozhi, V., Reddy, V.R., Yao-chi, L., and E. Yamaji. 2003. The role of Crop Simulation models on agricultural research and development: a review. Agricultural Engineering Journal 12 (1&2):1-18. Anbumozhi V. 2009. Staged Approaches to Capacity Building in support of Climate Change Adaptation, UNU – IR3S Consultative Conference on Higher Education for Climate Change Adaptation. United Nations University, Tokyo, Japan. 10-12 June Gagnon-Lebrun F. and S. Agrawala. 2006. Progress on adaptation to Climate Change in Developed Countries: an analysis of broad trends. ENV/EPOC/GSP(2006)1/FINAL, OECD, Paris. Luna, E. 2001. Disaster mitigation and preparedness: the case of NGOs in the Philippines. Disasters 25 (3): 216-226. OECD. 2006. Putting Climate Change Adaptation in the Development Mainstream. Policy Brief. http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/57/55/36324726.pdf (accessed on July, 2010). PICCAP. 2005. Climate Change: The Fiji Islands response. Fiji‟s First National Communication under the Framework conventional on Climate Change. Suva. Ribot, J.C., A. Najam, and G. Watson. 1996. Climate variation, vulnerability and sustainable development in the semi-arid tropics. In: Climate Variability, Climate Change and Social Vulnerability in the Semi-Arid Tropics [Ribot, J.C., A.R. Magalhães, and S.S. Panagides (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 13-54. UNCED. 1992. Agenda 21 – Chapter 37. http://habitat.igc.org/agenda21/ (accessed on July, 2010). 37 UNFCCC. 2001. The Marrakech Accords and the Marrakech Declaration Addendum. Part two: Action taken by the Conference of the Parties. Volume I. Decision 2 and 3/CP.7. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/cop7/13a01.pdf (accessed on July, 2010). 38 Community Resilience of Water Resource Crisis in Small Islands: Case Study in Solor Island and Semau Island FX. Hermawan Kusumartono1 fxhermawan@yahoo.com NanangRianto2 Nanang.rianto@gmail.com ABSTRACT: The global climate change have influence human life. It has a big influence to the water resource, especially in small islands like in Nusa Tenggara Timur (NTT). Additionally since long time agothe crisis of water resource has been felt bymany people in the small islands in NTT. The crisis of water resource certainly hasbeen respondedby society in Solor Island and Semau Island. The responseof the water resource crisisis the form of resilience in adaptationwhich relates to the socio-culture characteristic of society in Solorand Semau.This paper is aimedto describe the pattern of society resilience in Solor and Semauin Nusa Tenggara Timurfrom the crisis of water resource which focuses on two variables: the social capital and the economic capital.Researchmethod usedwas descriptive quantitative which supported by qualitative data.Resultindicatedthe resilience difference of water resource crisisin the Solor Island and SemauIsland.Sustainablepattern which tends to use the social capital in resilience from the crisis of water resource in Solor Island and the dominance of economic capital resilience in Semau Island which is depending on the natural condition.The results showedthat they who have thehigh social capital tends to come from the group who has the low economic capital especially in Solor Island. Keywords: water crisis, small island, social & economy capital, climate change 1. INTRODUCTION The small islands which most of area is coastal area, one of the most vulnerable in the increase of the sea surface (Mimura, 1999) as the impact of climate change. Lewis(2009) stated that resilience has become the characteristic of small islands, which the total amount reaches about 7 (seven) percent fromthe mainland area on this earth surface. The location is very small that causes the whole activities is done in the small island, either because of the external influence or internal influence of small islands system, will interact each other in that island.One of the obvious impacts from this condition in the small islands is condition of water resource crisis which community facescontionously. The lack of access to the drink water and sanitation as well as the bad environment will impact the health, water avaibility also become a very important factor to the food security.This phenomenon has been seen in the small island in some countries SIDS (smallisland developmentstate)in the Pacificregion. Study of vulnerability in the small islands has been done in Asia Pacific region since 1992, but the same study is still limited in Indonesia. In the global scope and in Indonesiaitsthe study that revealsthe specific way about the community resilience in a small island from the condition of water resource crisis considered rare. Beller ( 1990) stated that the small islands are uniquereviewed from the sides of bio-physic, geographic, capacity of environment or from the demographic aspectthat dwelt in, (socio-culture). For solving the water resource crisis, community who dwelling in a small island and already long time facing the 1 Senior researcher at Experimental Station for Social Economy and Environment on Water Resources, Research Intitute of Social Economic and Environment, Ministry of Public Works 2 Junior researcher at Experimental Station for Social Economy and Environment on Water Resources, Research Intitute of Social Economic and Environment, Ministry of Public Works 39 condition of water resource crisis, originally has its own adaptation. Without a good capacity of adaptation, the community in a small island will be more vulnerable if compared to the community in the other characteristic region considering the intervention from third parties such as government program, or NGO also it is more difficult to reach these regions because of the budget limitation, the remote access geographically, and so on. But on principle they are able to struggle in all that condition until now with their own strategy in adaptation. The way of their adaptation continues to develop along with the dynamic of change, the pressure of physical environment on their social life. Socially the community has a structure and a culture in their life which manages the function that they are needed (Ritzer, 2001), These structure and culture in functional perspective will continously evolve according to the functional change that is needed. Better community adaptive capacity will determine their resilience in facing the condition of water resource crisis vulnerability which they experienced. Therefor it is important to see how the description of community resilience from the water resource crisis condition based on the local wisdom in certain society from social capital and economic capital perspectives,. The point that becomes the focus in this writing is to describe how the community resilience faces the condition of water resource crisis in the small island namely in Solor Island and SemauIsland, Nusa Tenggara Timurto see the difference between the both small islands. The writer assumes the social capital optimalization for community resilience from the water resource crisis tends to be higher on them whom come from the low enconomic level, or vise versa. 2. MATERIALS AND METHODS The environmental disorder mentioned by Folke(et. all:2004) and Peterson(1998) included stochastic events such as fire burning, floods, windstorm, explosion of bugs population, and biodiversity decrease. According to Peterson(1998), Folke et all(2004)and Holling(2004)it happened because of there are some human activities which influence the ecosystem resilience such as the activities of deforestation and the recognition of the exotic species of plants and animals, exploitation of natural resources, pollution, land utilization, and the change of antrophogenic climate so that cause displacement of regime in the ecosystem, in the condition that is less wanted and degradedoften. Thus in the Second World Climate Confrence1990 was declared that the climate change caused biggest impact on hydraulic cycle and management of water resource as well as socio-enocomic system (Sadof:2009).The biggest impact that is happened on hydraulic cycle caused the change of precipitation pattern, acceleration of evaporation either from plants or from water resources such as rivers and lakes that affected on the decrease of food production which is the main source of income that rely on the water (UNDP:2008)especially for the small islands. Regarding to the climate change on the special impact namely the climate change on hydraulic cycle. Concept of resilience is defined from ecology point of view, according to Folke(et. all:2004) Resilience is the ability of ecosystem to respond to the disorder by rejecting the damage and recover quickly. Holling(1973) also defined resilience asthe description of persistentnature system in facing the change of ecosystem variable because of 40 the natural causes or antrophogenic. Then according to Holling(1973) in Lence(2000) the concept of its own resilience see more on how the existing disorder is soaked up by system without changing the system form. Like the explanation of resilence and mutiple equilibrium view by the figures Lence (2000) andWalker(2004) that measure the system resilience from how big the system capacity to absorb the disorder and organize as well as to change the variable also a process which control the behaviour in order toretainthe basic function, structure, identity and input.From several definitions about the ecology resilience it can be summarized as the capacity of ecosystem to recover from the disorder either naturally or from human activities which appeal then absorb and also implement to controlin the form of behaviour. On the academic perspective according to Perman(2003)mentioned that there is the interdependency between the ecology system and the social system which has gotten acknowlegement since the end of 1990‟s.Then it is strengthened by Walker(2004) who stated that to study the resilience aspect is important to see how theinteraction between people and the ecosystem through the socio-ecology system, and the need to shift the paradigm of maximum preservation result to manage enviromentwhich aims to develop the resilience ecology through "resilience analysis, adaptive resources, and adaptive government”.From the shifted resilience definition towards the social aspect defined the concept of resilience by Manatsa(2013) whom said it is refers to one of the aspects namely the society understanding which relies from the local knowledge about how to face the risk of information that is had. Then stated byRoss(2008)that ecology resilience closely related to the way of society influeces environment such as the policy decision, legislation, and management of environment. Then Perman(2003) stated that the concept of resilience closely related to the sustainable development, however there is a challenge that is provided by Hamilton(2010) that on the economic aspect namely a free market with the principle of efficiency and productivity increase will weaken the resilience because the system is allowed to depend on the existing condition. But on the principle of Berkes and Fokle in Hamilton(2010) about the principle “develop resilience and sustainable” is stated through consolidation with the adaptive approach, management practice based on local knowledge and condition to learn the institute and organization. From that definition can be stated that the economic capital is really a resilience form but has the “dependent” characteristic with the existing condition which is different with the social capital such as making networks which matches with the principle of Berkes and Folke in Hamilton(2010) as the sustainable resilience in the form of consolidation. In the both concept of resilience forms either in the form of society resilience based on the social capital (sustainable) or base on economic capital (dependent) that is explained on the paragraphabove, next the writer will try to describe how the resilience base on the social and economic capitals either in Solor Island and in Semau Island. The resilience of social capital and economic capital are thought by the writer perhaps there is a different or variation between each Solor Island and Semau Island eventhough there is a same problem such as the water resource crisis in a small island. 41 This research uses a descriptive quantitative approach through the field survey by using the technique ofstratified random samplingwhich is conducted multi-stage from the level of subdisctrict until the level of village with a total 191 respondents from four villages (Villages of Labelen, Tanah Wareng, PahleloandLetbaun) in two subdistricts/kecamatan namely KecamatanSolorTimurandSemau Selatan(induk). This research is also completed by indepth interview with some key informants and observation in the society. Indepth interview wasconducted with the society key personsuch as the village chief and other village figures, PNPM (Program Nasional Pemberdayaan Masyarakat/National Program for Community Empowerment) companion,youth and woman figure. Descriptive analysis of dimension of the social capital and economic capital used to see how the variation of the social capital and economic capital as a part of society resilience from the water resource crisis work and also analysis about the cross of both dimensionsthat aims to show how big and how strong the relation and what kinds of influences that related to it. 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 3. 1. Economic Capital Dimension of the economic capitalis gained bycalculate and combineindicator from the averageexpenditures per month and thepeoples occupation which is distinguished based on income that is earned every month matching with the existing datain every island in Solor Island and Semau Island. Table 1. Economic capital category in Solor and Semau Percentage Solor Economic Semau Economic Capital Capital Low 51.5% 73.3% Medium 22.2% 17.3% High 26.3% 9.3% The result of the economic capital can bee seen from the table of Expenditure and Income in society in the both islands such as the following: Table 2. Expenditure and income rate in Solor and Semau Percentage Society Expenditure in Solor Island /month Society Expenditure in Semau Island/month Income in Solor Island Income in Semau Island Low 59.6% 78.2% 62.6% 81% High 40.4% 21.8% 37.4% 19% It can be seen explicitly that the economic level of society from the avarege of expenditure and income in the both islands which is different can be stated that economic level in the society in Solor Island/month is better than Semau Island. Nevertheless if it is seen from the 42 average of expenditure and income of family in Solor Island and Semau Island it is clearly different because the average of expenditure and income in Solor Island is lower compared to Semau Island that isRp. 483.000,- average expenditureand the average income is Rp. 491.700,-.Meanwhile in Semau Island the average expenditure is Rp.804.000,-withthe average income atRp. 1.212.000,-. Therefore if it is implemented the average of family expenditure in Semau Island with the average of family expenditure in Solor Island without distinguishing the location factor data is gained that 60.5% society in Semau Island is classified high expenditurecategory and only 39.4% classified in the low expenditure level inSemau. Rather different situation exist in Solor Island which74.1% society in Solor Island classified in the high income category society andonly 25.9% classified in the low income category. So economically it is obviousthat the expenditure and income in Semau Island higher than Semau. Then if it is related to occupational typesthey whom classified having the high income in Solor are civil servants/PNS(100%), fishermen (72,4%), teachers (50%) andentrepreneurs (50%), meanwhile in Semau Island dominated by entrepreneur (100%), PNS(50%) and farmer who are also the seaweed farmers (50%). From the result above it can infered that the economic capital in Semau Island is better if compared to Solor Island and can be related to society resilience in Semau Island from the water resource crisis. Data gained from the field shows that society in Semau Island counts on their economic capital more to solve the water resource crisis compared to society in Solor Island. It can be proven from the pattern of society resilience in Semau Island which generally in every village counts on the water that is collected in the Rainwater Shelter tub or Penampungan Air Hujan (PAH). Even the PAH which belongs to every village from the aid foundation can not fulfill the water need that is required by society in Semau Island. So many people in Semau Island who made PAH independently with the various size which reflects their economic capacity. The size of PAH independently measured 2.5m x 2.5m x 2.5m and 3m x 3m x 3m.Generally the cost to make the independent PAH more or less reachesRp. 15.000.000, but depend on the size of independent PAH which will be made, if it is bigger then the cost will be greater. Facing the water resource crisis by PAH is not the only way used by Semau people as the form of resilience based on the economic capital.They also bought fresh water from the parties sellfresh water with averagecost about Rp. 200.000pertanks (5.000 litres) that is proven from the survey result is about 3.3% sample stated that they buy fresh water in the dry season. The water that they were bought and collected in the PAH could be last for 2 until 3 months. The traditionto buy this water occurred since the last 4 until 6 years go which parallelwith income echancementin Semau Island from the additional work as the seaweed farmer. Different things happened in Solor Island, less amount of residents who spend the money to buy water in the dry season because generally (73.7%) society in Solor Island use the communal water such as public well when the dry season comes. If it is still lack of water from the water crisis in the dry season, residents in Solor Island can ask Chief of Household to use water from the PAH tub in the household level, and the last way if the society in Solor Island still feel lack of water, only a few part of residents in Solor Island who strive to buy the water through the service of resident who has the main job as a fisherman to buy fresh water in Adonara Island especially the drinking water. The water cost range is Rp. 43 2000/jerrycan (20 litre) with the accountingRp. 1000,-forthe transport feeandRp. 1000,- for the water cost in Adonara. 3. 2. Social Capital Table 3. Social capital categories in Solor and Semau Percentage Social Capital Social Capital Solor Island Semau Island Low 37.4% 42% Medium 25.3% 35.8% High 37.4% 22.2% Generally the social capital exist in Solor Island werebetter than the social capital in Semau Island although it gained balance percentage between the social capital category of low (37.4%) and high (37.4%). There were different with social capital in Semau Island is low (42%).This slightly diferencewere at 6.2% with the category of low social capital. Table 4. Social capital dimensions in Solor and Semau No. Dimension Solor Island Semau Island Category Category Low Medium High Low Medium High 1 Norm 37.4% 30.3% 32.3% 46.9% 11.1% 42% 2 Network 36.4% 29.3% 34.3% 23.5% 55.6% 21% 3 Trust 30.3% 6.1% 63.6% 34.6% 27.2% 38.3% From the data can be seen the significantdiferencethe social capital in Solor Island was better compared to Semau Island.The percentage difference in dimension “Trust” with high and low category in each island, in Solor Island the difference reaches 33,3%between the high trust percentage and the low trust percentage. Quite different things happening in Semau Island which only have3.7% margin. The biggestdifference of percentage in Semau Island wereon the network dimension with the percentage in category “medium” reaches 22.1% margin between the medium social network and the low social network. It is different in SolorIsland which the network is “low” with the percentage difference only 2.1% with high category. Closer tendencyshowed by norm dimension which in the both islands were on the low category but there is only the percentage difference with the same category also such as the high norm category with the difference of percentage in Solor Island is 5.1% and 4.9% in Semau Island. From the comparison table about the social capital in the Solor Island and Semau Island can be seen that social capital in Solor Island is better than the social capital in Semau Island. It was proven that social capital in Solor emerged as the society resilience to overcome water resource crisis..On the social norm dimension there were information about custom normwhichobeyed and understood by the society member in Solor Island forbidden to use 44 the communal water resources if the dry season has not coming yet. This norm in Solor Island practiced within self consciousness and manifested on the community ritual/tradition to take care and clean the communal water resources such as public wells which willbecome the main water resource when the dry season comes. The appearance of the norms is clarified from the survey result which showed unwritten strong rule which manages the water use in the society in Solor Island (79.8%), with the high obedience of society to the rule (76.8), which the rule appeals from the parties who control the water use (67.7%), thus the agreement appeals which is highly cherished by residents about the fresh water use in Solor Island (57.6%). Meanwhile in Semau Island datasurvey resulted that there were low written rule (85.2%), no parties who control the rules (63%) nor rule about the water use, the low agreement about the water use comunally(48.1%) because of the low written rule (46.9%). This inversely comparisonSolor Island the writer assumes it happened probably caused by the minimum infrastructure so that caused the low of interaction level among Semau Island the residents so there wasno consensus which produces the norm related to the condition of water resources crisis, although generally there was commonunderstanding of the water resource crisis in the society in Semau Island. However on the social network dimension related to the resilience of the water resource crisis, if compared between Semau Island and Solor Island is more significant the percentage difference in Semau Island but on the category “medium” (55.6%)with the percentage difference 12.1% from the category of low social network (23.5%). Meanwhile in Solor Island the social network tends to be low, but there is a low percentage difference about only 2.1% between the low (36.4%) and high (34.3%)social network.The low social network happened in Solor Island can be explained with the data that no cooperation with external parties (stakeholder) to provide the fresh water (90%), there wasno organization which manages the fresh water (74.7%), then the minimum of cooperation in use (48.5%) and management (45.5) of fresh water. The stakeholder is referred to the external parties except the regional government. However datashowed that regional government has given many aids such as giving the water resource facilities such as water pipe but now it is out of order, water car that is also out of order, the seeking of communal water resources but it is never success and finally giving the PAH in the household level or even in the family level that is used by 2-5 families but the policy about PAH procurement in the family level alsoineffective. The difference is not significant with the high social network perhaps happened because the high maintainance of fresh water resources which is done by residents (53.3%), the high cooperation to afford the fresh water (46.5%) and the high information sharing each other about fresh water (41.4%) such as explained in the norm part in Solor Island. . It is a bit different with what happened in Semau Island which has tendency on the medium category of social network as a resilence of water resource crisis. Then perhaps can be explained from the field data based on the minimum infrastructure made the low intensity of interaction which impacts to the low network in the society in Semau Island. Additionally because there is an understanding of water resource crisis which is indeed becomes a main 45 problem in Semau Island which makes the high information related to the water resources (59.7%) about who is the party who has water resources either the communal water resources or buying the water. Data is gained that resident in Semau Island still take water communally with the distance is far enough to the water resources but it is explained they who take the water to the communal water resources as a reflection of high and medium cooperation to afford the water (43.2%) usually is they who face the low economic condition in Semau Island. Related to the cooperation of the fresh water use there tends to be low (40.7%) but can not avoid that the use of PAH by residents in Semau Island can be used by the group that has closely relations such as family.The reflection of high cooperation to maintain the water resources (40.7%) can be explained through the tradition rule which is not allowed anybody to use the water in the area which has the water resources.The last is the low cooperation with external party to provide the fresh water (48.1%) and also can not deny that the cooperation with external party is classified medium (44.4%) which is proven from the cooperation with a foundation to provide PAH and it is given to society in Semau Island. The last dimension is trust, which is gained the high trust in Solor Island. The high trust in Solor Island can be explained because were clear norms or unwritten rule which contain the consensus about the usage of fresh water, there are manager, the high obedience to the rule related to water resources. To sum it allthere were low of suspicion to each resident in the unefficient use of water (91.9%) and the high trust to coordinator of fresh water management that is to every household caretaker (63.6%). It is differentwith what happened in Semau Island because the minimum interaction among residents, so that become small probability happened the consensus in the form of norms to be agreed from the use of fresh water and also there is no manager or controller of the water use. Although it still tends to be low trust among residents (55.6%), but there is the low trust to every coordinator of fresh water management(53.1%)who is perhaps the public figure in the area that has the water resources. 3. 3. The Cross between The Economic Capital and The Social Capital in Solor Island and Semau Island The cross between the economic capital and the social capital in Solor Island and in Semau Island is gained the result that the both variables have a negative relations characteristic that is the high economic capital then the low social capital that is also vice versa what is happened in the society in Solor Island also in Semau Island about the resilience of water resources crisis with the weak strength (0.317) in Solor Island which is applied in the population level meanwhile the strength of relations is very weak (0.16) happened in Semau Island and it is not applied in the population level. 46 Table 5. Cross between Social capital dimensions and economic capital in Solor and Semau Social Capital Economic Capital Solor Island Economic Capital Semau Island Low Medium High Low Medium High Low 29.4% 18.2% 69.2% 40% 46.2% 57.1% Medium 21.6% 36.4% 23.1% 36.4% 38.5% 42.9% High 49% 45.5% 7.7% 23.6% 15.4% 0% Value Approx. Sig Value Approx. Sig -0.317 0.000 -0.16 0.186 Directional measuresSomers‟d The strength which is classified stronger -although still include in the weak category-(0.317) in Solor Island than Semau Island (0.16)nevertheless in the negative relations perhaps can be explained from prime data which is gained in Solor Island. It is really found that the society in Solor Island use the social capital as the resilience of water resources crisis that they experienced.There are really unwritten values and norms about the rule that the communal water resources namely public wells can only be used in the dry season that is showed the reflection of the social capital as the resilience from the social norm aspect. The thing strengthened with there routine traditional ritual of society in Solor Island which is usually conducted once in a year before entering the month of Ramdhan such as ritual to clean and to take care the public well. The ritual done by many people in Solor Island and become the facility of social interaction for society in Solor Island also as an activity which is functioned to strengthen the social values and norms related to unwritten rule about the use of water. The form of society resilience in Solor Island from the water resources crisis which uses the social capital is reflected from there is the “manager” of PAH tub within the community‟s social network in the household level which PAH tub is also given to the society in Solor Island for every 2 until 5 family which has the communal agreement and manage the PAH tube together. This resilience of water resources crisis on the social network dimension is reflected from the agreementwhen affording the fresh water which wasdone by residents eventhough the amount is not many, which the residents help each other to gain the fresh water and connecting to give information, pass by their money to buy the water in Adonara Island via fisherman which the cost is about Rp. 2000,-/drum.Lastly, the reflection of trust dimension in the society of Solor Island that the writer assumes the impact of “social norm” which is strengthened from “social network” in the society of Solor Island is reflected from the prime data that in the society of Solor Island is neverfound the indication of fresh water “misappropriation” even by “water manager” in the household level. From the explanation of the social capital resilience in Solor Island as the form of society resilience from the water resource crisis is in condition on “social interaction” which makes them become less interaction with the other party in Solor Island in facing the water resource crisis for example because they only “buy water” by using and count on their economic 47 capital to the parties who can access and have the fresh water resource in Solor Island. Therefore they have less knowledge how the social values and normsthat exist in the society related to the water use, then because the less of interaction with other parties make them less networking in the society so it has network that perhaps smaller if compared to they who use the social capital because of the minimum of economic capital as the form of resilience from the water resource crisis. Then because the less interaction with other party so high possibility they recognize and know less the other party which make the lower trust and very high the suspicion appeals to the other party. Nevertheless the result difference of the relations strength in Semau Island where the economic capital has a verylow relation (0.16)with the character of negative relationson social capital that can not be applied in population. May be it can be explained because the main resilience in the society of Semau Island much depend on the economic capital that determines how big their access to get the water resource in the term of to fullfil the need that can not be deniedthat they ought to “interect” to the party who has access to the water resource so that they make the social network with the patry. With the other words the economic capital in the society of Semau Island has a bit positive impact on the social capital although the strength “very low” and also it is not applied in the population level. It can be proven from the cross dimension between the expenditure with the social capital that exists in Semau Island with the following result: Table 6. Cross between social capital and expenditure in Semau Dimension ExpenditureExpenditurein Semau Island Character and Relation Strength Approx. Sig Norm 0.004 0.979 Network 0.041 0.759 Trust 0.035 0.803 From the cross of expenditure dimension on the three dimensions of the social capital that can be seen the third has positive character such as the high expenditure the high is social norm, social network and trust but the third has the strength which is “very low” also can not be applied in the population level or only can be applied in the “small” part in the goups level in the society of Semau Island. This can be explained from the data that is gained from the field that indeed in Semau Island which is generally depend on the strength of their economic capital for example in making independent PAH with the cost which can be reached more and less Rp. 15 millionsand can be used in the small groups based on the family relations. From this communal use of PAH every family member also has the values and rule of water use communally. The sample of data is the reflection from the positive relations of the economic capital with the social network and social norm in some part of society in Semau Island. Then from values and rules that are obeyed by evey family from the use of PAH communally creates “trust” each other except the trust based on kinship. Nevertheless the economic capital which is used by society in Semau Island much depends on the environmental condition for example “seaweed farmer” who much depends on the sea 48 condition, so that if there is an environmental disorder in the sea ecosystem which causes the “seaweed” havest fail in Semau Island has the lost potential of “resilience” ability in the society of Semau Island from the condition of water resource crisis. 4. CONCLUSION On the above explanation can be seen that there area differences form of society resilience form the condition of water resource crisis between Solor Island and Semau Island. The tendency from the existing data that there are the unwritten rule, obedience of society members to the unwritten rule, water resource management, communal efforts of society in maintaining and managing the public health and the strength of trust among each other in using the fresh water that exists in Solor Island showing the tendency of society resilience in Solor Island tends to the resilience form of the social capital with the “sustainable”characteristic. Although it can not deny that therewas the resilience form of the economic capital in Solor Island but tends to less done by the society in Solor Island. They who have the high social capital come from they are classified in the low economic capital. It also happened in Semau Island but it is a bit different with what happened in Solor Island. In the Semau Island, an efforts to solve the water resource crisis by buying the water from the parties who have access of the fresh water so that the tendency in PulauSemau has the resilience of the economic capital from water resource crisis that they are experiencing. The resilience of the economic capitalin Semau Island indeedhas positive side on the social capital but only happened in a small part of society in the family level in the society resilience of water resource crisis The low social capital in the Semau Island perhaps is influenced by the minimum infrastructure in Semau Island so that make the society in Semau Island difficult to interact each other, thus the society depend on the ability of individual economic or evenin the group level and based on the kinship. 5. REFERENCES Berkes, Fikret, Carl Folke and John Colding. 2008. “Navigating Social-Ecological Systems: Building Resilience for Complexity and Change”. Cambridge University Press Beller, William S. and P. 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Journal of Law and Society 36 Tahir, Amiruddin. 2010. Formulasi Indeks Kerentanan Lingkungan Pulau-Pulau Kecil: Kasus Pulau Kasu-Kota Batam, Pulau Barrang Lompo-Kota Makasar, dan Pulau SaonekKabupaten Raja Ampat. Institut Pertanian Bogor. UNDP. 2008. Sisi Lain Perubahan Iklim: Mengapa Indonesia harus Beradaptasi untuk Melindungi Rakyat Miskinnya, http://www.undp.or.id/pubs/docs Walker, B., Holling, C. S., Carpenter, S. R., Kinzig, A. 200). "Resilience, adaptability and transformability in social–ecological systems". Ecology and Society 50 Conceptual Model of Green Infrastructure Implementation Sri Maryati Research Cluster for Regional and City Infrastructure System School of Architecture, Planning and Policy Development Institute of Technology Bandung, INDONESIA e-mail: smaryati@pl.itb.ac.id ABSTRACT : Urbanisation and land use conversion especially in Indonesia recently bring some consequences related to environmental problems. In anticipating the problem, green infrastructure (GI) is one of solution. The application of GI build resilience against the problem. There were many literatures explaining the benefit of GI. Nevertheless the aplication of the concept still faces many problems. The objective of this paper to develop conceptual model of GI implementation. This model can be used by government or local government as a guidance to implement GI. The conceptual model consists of steps along with criteria that have to be considered in developing GI. In order to come to the model, qualitative analysis but using content analysis was used. The data consists of secondary data from spatial planning document, research report, and best practises. The result of analysis shows that policy, management, operational, and evaluation aspect are important in GI implementation. In policy aspect leadership, law,and budget are important. In management aspect cooperation and development of institution, regulation, demonstration, education, and incentives and disincentives are needed. In operational aspect competence human resources and information system have to be developed. In evaluation aspect, indicators have to be defined. Keywords: Conceptual Model, Green Infrastructure, Resilience 1. INTRODUCTION Urbanisation and land use conversion especially in Indonesia recently bring some consequences related to environmental problems. Urbanisation has raised stormwater run-off and flooding risk. In Cikapundung sub watershed, for example, permeable land use has decreased in the rate of 50% between 1983-2002 (Edi, et al, 2005). The surface run off as a result increase. The some case happens in Kabupaten Bandung. Flood disaster in Kabupaten Bandung has high intensity. Based on spatial plan of Kabupaten Bandung, Citarum River experienced overflow in 1931, 1945, 1977, 1982, 1986, 1998, 2005, 2010. Based on Ministry of Forestry report related to flooding management in Jabodetabekjur, the lost caused by flooding in 1996 and 2002 in Jakarta is around 9.8 trillion rupiahs. Nowadays always every year overflow happen. On the other hand during dry season, dry risk increase. The problem not only related to the fulfillment of drinking water for domestic use, but also for agriculture and other uses. The solution for the problem until today is still directed to development of grey infrastructure, such as drainage. Exploration toward spatial plan of city and regency in Citarum Hulu watershed shows that the focus of local government in flood management is still focused in development of grey infrastructure instead of developing green infrastructure (GI). Research related to advantages of developing green infrastructure showed that it not only have environmental benefit, but also economic benefit. A Case Study in Lancaster shows that the development of GI for the 25-year GI scenario will give water related benefit (the avoided capital cost of implementing gray infrastructure is $120 million and the avoided 51 operational cost is $661,000 per year), energy related benefit ($2,368,000/year), air quality related benefit ($1,023,000/year), and climate change benefit ($786,000/year) (EPA, 2014). Because of the benefits, GI can increase the resilience of city and region. There are many literature explaining the benefit of GI, but the implementation of the concept still faces many problems. This paper will not either explore the benefits of green infrastructure compared to grey infrastructure or how to calculate the benefit of green infrastructure, but rather aimed to develop conceptual model of GI implementation. This model can be used by government or local government as a guidance to implement GI. The conceptual model consists of steps along with criteria that have to be considered in developing GI. Rationale for GI There are many definitions of GI, but the widest used definition come from Benedict and Mc Mahon. Based on Benedict and McMahon (2006), GI was defined as an interconnected network of natural areas and other open spaces that conserves natural ecosystem values and functions, sustain sclean air and water, and provides a wide array of benefits to people and wildlife. NSF (2012) defined GI as natural and engineered ecological systems which integrate with the built environment to provide the widest possible range of ecological, community, and infrastructure services. Furthermore EPA (2013) defined GI as adaptable term used to describe an array of products, technologies, and practices that use natural systems – or engineered systems that mimic natural processes – to enhance overall environmental quality and provide utility services. Green infrastructure is the ecological framework needed for environmental, social and economic sustainability. GI differs from conventional approaches to open space planning because it looks at conservation values and actions in concert with land development, growth management and built infrastructure planning (Benedict and McMahon, 2002). Why Green Infrastructure? The development of green infrastructure is forced by the condition of limitation of budget from government and growing need of stormwater management. It is therefore lower cost solutions that provide additional benefits to communities has become a critical priority. In addition to stormwater management, green infrastructure can provide many community benefits, including reducing energy consumption, improving air quality, providing carbon sequestration, and increasing property values (EPA, 2014). In case of stormwater management, benefits include better management of storm-water runoff, lowering incidents of combined storm and sewer overflows (CSOs), water capture and conservation, flood prevention, accommodation of natural hazards. Green infrastructure benefits generally can be divided into five categories of environmental protection: (1) Land-value, (2) Quality of life, (3) Public health, (4) Hazard mitigation, and (5) Regulatory compliance (EPA, 2009).Nowadays the majority of infrastructure built in Indonesia is grey infrastructure. Grey infrastructure is network and masive construction designed for years of functionality with high investment and maintenance cost. 52 GI can be categorized as Low Impact Development (LID). LID projects have characteristics as follows: 1. Multifunction: can use existing element of landscape 2. Low Cost: can be functioned in the long term, without high investment, operational, maintenance cost 3. Social and ecological benefit: can increase groundwater, influence mikro climate, increase air quality 4. Reduce off-site management cost: the need for stormwater network decrease 5. Open space function: GI application can increase more public space without reducing too much built up area. Furthermore Herzog (2010) stated that GI may be a way to adapt and regenerate consolidated urban fabric, in order to build resilience against climate change impacts and prepare for alow carbon economy. Status of Green Infrastructure in Indonesia: Case Studies Tarlani (2014) explored the readiness of government in Citarum Hulu (Kabupaten Bandung) sub watershed in implementing the GI concept. GI hs been stated in several policy documents, suct as spatial plan, but orientation toward grey infrastructure still remain domain. In term of budget allocation for GI, 10 out of 11 program in 2014 with the source of funding from national level (APBN) was allocated for GI, or around 2,42% of total APBN in Citarum Hulu Watershed. In term of provincial budget (APBD Provinsi) 9 0ut of 24 program in Citarum Hulu was related to GI or around 34,76% of total provincial budget in Citarum Hulu Watershed. If we look at regency budget (APBD Kabupaten), only 1 out of 8 program related to GI with only 12,2% of regency budget for Citarum Hulu. In term of management and operational aspects, the readiness of government is still weak. Viriyadhika (2014) explored the potential of GI development by using case in Cikapundung sub watershed. Based on the research, the land demand of five type of GI are as follows, bioretention (754.41 Ha), dry pond (123.90 Ha), infiltration basin (10,630.62 Ha), porous pavement (2,416.55 Ha), and wetland (63.04 Ha). Green infrastructure application in Cikapundung Sub-watershed is directed on 30 districts, with the largest distributions are located in Lembang, Cimenyan, and Parongpong District. The combination of 2 or more green infrastructure types namely green infrastructure composite showed that Cikapundung Sub-watershed will need 13,387.84 Ha (33% of total area) of green infrastructure. The potential result of 33% green infrastructure application in the area of study resulted in the declining of 20-25% surface runoff at 2-100 years rainfall period. 2. MATERIALS AND METHODS The method used in order to achieve the objective is qualitative method by using content analysis technique. The data used is secondary data from spatial planning document, research report, and best practises. The first step of analysis was to define the framework of planning 53 system based on research report. Mell (2013) stated that in order to implement the GI, ecological tools have to be placed within the planning process. The failure of implementation of certain concept was caused by the disintegration of the concept into spatial planning in a straightforward manner (Piwowarczyk et al, 2013). Furthermore Radford and James (2013) stated that the failure in planning integration is often due to a limited understanding of definitions and classifications and insufficient communication between practitioners, planners and researchers. It is therefore the planning framework is important to define in the first step. The second step was to define the instrument for each component of planning system based on literature and best practises. This step aimed to give guideline in order to implement the GI concept. 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Framework of Planning System GI as a component of spatial plan can be categorized as public policy. Based on Bromley (1989), in development of public policy there are three hierarchy that have to be considered; the first hierarchy is policy, the second one is management, and the last one is operational. Another concept which is also considered in this paper is approach from Lorbach (2010). Lorbach stated that there are four steps in public policy, they are strategic, tactical, and operational, as well as, reflexive (monitoring and evaluation). Policy, in Bromley classification can be considered as strategic level in Lorbach classification and management as tactical. In this paper the framework from Bromley is combined with the framework from Lorbach. The framework for the analysis of planning system is shown in Figure 1. Figure 1. Framework of Planning System 54 Concept and Best Practises based on the Framework Policy Aspect In policy aspect, leadership is an importand aspect to be considered (Gichoya, 2005; Nauman et al, 2011). Nauman et al (2011) stated that leadership and strategy was very important in order to apply certain concept and increase undertanding of certain concept. Furthermore Gichoya (2005) explained that leadership aspect and readiness to accept certain concept would produce strategic thought in long, medium, or short term. Beside leadership, application of new concept needs formal regulation. Mnjama and Wamukoya stated that committment of stakeholders cannot be implemented without policy and procedure. Policy and procedure in this case was not only law product, but also regulation and control in the law document (Naumann, et al, 2006). Last but not least in policy aspect is availability of budget. In every development process, especially big scale development, needs financial support from internal or external source. Time frame and financial aspect have significant influences in determining the success of certain program (Naumann, et al, 2011). Source of funding can be categorized as community and government. Small scale GI can be managed by community or even individual, but for large scale GI government have to take the responsibility. In the US (EPA, 2010), national and federal level set up the policy directed to the application of GI. Example of the policies are Federal Clean Water Act, Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) Control Policy, National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System Permit Program. The policy become main driver for local government for applying GI concept, besided the awareness of local government concerning the benefits of GI. Based on national and federal policy, local government set up specific policy for their region based on local condition. For example in Lenexa there is CSO policy in the form of on-site detention, where as in Portland, there is a policy of infiltration practise. Management Aspect To realise certain program, sometimes internal source cannot fulfill all of the demand. In other case, the success of certain program sometimes is determined by the success of cooperation between region. In GI, certain infrastructure integrates some regions. The success of infrastructure development in one area influences other regions or influenced by other regions. Major aspect in regional planning is the existence of communication and cooperation of stakeholders. The benefits of green infrastructure can be measured at the building or site level, if spread across many private owners, the benefits can be aggregated to an entire community, city, county, region, or even nation. However, to achieve these benefits of scale there must be coordinated implementation across a broader area involving multiple parties to reach certain critical levels of participation (EPA, 2009). Consequently, community-level, rather than individual-level implementation of green infrastructure particularly helps local governments to achieve environmental, sustainability, and adaptation goals within their jurisdictions. The climate adaptation benefits of green infrastructure are generally related to its ability to moderate the expected increases in extreme precipitation or temperature. 55 Beside cooperation between stkeholders, other important things that have to be considered in management aspect is regulation, demonstration (example of GI application), education, and incentives and disincentives. In the US (EPA, 2010), there are so-called three steps of policy implementation of GI. The first step is stormwater regulation and code review, the second step is demonstration and pilots, education and outreach, and incentives. The third step is capital and transportation project, stormwater fee, and fee discount. Operational Aspect Implementation of GI needs competence personal. Naumann et al (2011) stated that competence human resources would produce strategies in their community. Alghamdi et al (2014) stated that in governemnt body competence human resources is always needed. Information system in GI application is also important. Alghamdi et al (2014) explained that integration of website is important for showing the program. In the application og GI concept probably there are three important actors involved, they are government, developer, and community. Government role is as policy and regulation maker, as well as supervisor, where as developer and community role is as the party who apply the concept. Based on EPA (2010), the success story of GI application in the US is determined by the competency and cooperation of the three actors. By this concept, the implementation og GI is not only done by government, but developer and community also have big rule. Reflexive (Monitoring and Evaluation) Monitoring and evaluation is important in every step in GI implementation. The first step that have to be done in monitoring and evaluation is to set up the indicators to measure the success and failure of GI Implementation. Example of inicators can be explained as follows, in Chicago the local government have set up the indicator as of 2010, nearly 600,000 trees had been added to the City‟s Tree Canopy, and more than 4 million square feet of green roofs had been installed on 300 buildings. 4. CONCLUSIONS The development and implementation of GI have to be started by good policy. Good policy needs strong leadership, accommodation of GI in law document, such as spatial document, and availability of budget for GI. Furthermore, the development and implementation of GI need good management aspect. Cooperation and development of institution, regulation, demonstration, education, and incentives and disincentives are needed. The development and implementation of GI also need operational aspect, consists of competence human resources and information system. The last, in order to implement GI concept, the monitoring and evaluation are needed. Indicators have to be developed in executing monitoring and evaluation. The requirement for development and implementation of GI as an conceptual model can be explained as the following diagram. 56 Figure 2. Conceptual Model for GI Implementation 5. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The authors thank Institute Technology Bandung for financial support of this research under the scheme of Riset Inovasi Kelompok Keahlian 2014. The title of the research is „Model Kebutuhan Green Infrastructure berdasarkan Rencana Pola Pemanfaatan Ruang: Implikasi bagi Pengendalian Pemanfaatan Ruang‟. 6. REFERENCES Alghamdi, I.A., Goodwin, R., Rampersad, G., 2014. “Organizational E-Government Readiness: An Investigation in Saudi Arabia,” International Journal of Business and Management; Vol. 9, No. 5; 2014- ISSN 1833-3850 E-ISSN 1833-8119 Benedict, M.A.,McMahon, E.T. 2002. E-Green Infrastructure: Smart Conservation for the 21st Century. Sprawl Watch Clearing House: Washington,D.C Benedict, M., McMahon, E.T. 2006. Green infrastructure: Linking Landscapes and Communities. Island Press: Washington, DC Bromley, D. W. 1989. Economic Interests and Institutions: The Conceptual Foundations of Public Policy, Blackwell: Oxford Edi, T.H., Herwanto, T., Kendarto, R.D. 2005. Perubahan Bentuk Penggunaan Lahan Dan Implikasinya Terhadap Koefisien Air Larian DAS Citarum Hulu Jawa-Barat. Universitas Padjajaran: Bandung EPA United States. 2010. Green Infrastructure Case Studies: Municipal Policies for Managing Stormwater with Green Infrastructure 57 EPA United States. 2013. 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Kesiapan Pemerintah Dalam Penerapan Infrastruktur Hijau Sebagai Pengendali Banjir Di Sub Das Citarum Hulu, Kabupaten Bandung. Tugas Akhir pada Program Studi Perencanaan Wilayah dan Kota, Institut Teknologi Bandung Viriyadhika. 2014. Potensi Pengembangan Infrastruktur Hijau Untuk Mewujudkan Sistem Drainase Berkelanjutan, Studi Kasus : Sub Das Cikapundung). Thesis pada Program Magister Perencanaan Wilayah dan Kota, Institut Teknologi Bandung 58 Erase Vulnerability, Improve Food Security Policy in Indonesia with Innovation Synergy Retta Siagian Sekertariat Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Kementerian Pekerjaan Umum Jl. Patimura no.20, Kebayoran Baru ABSTRACT : Food security according to law is the fulfillment of the conditions of food for households, as reflected in the availability of sufficient food, both quantity and quality, safe, equitable and affordable. In general the policy of food security in 2010-2014, the government puts food security as one of the national priorities, which in conjunction with the development of food security, the government is giving emphasis on: improving food security sub-system, sub-system of food distribution, and subsystems food consumption. The problem is, Indonesia is faced with the situation of food security vulnerability, and is unable to meet food sufficiency when sticking to the conventional pattern, but even though there are a lot of technological innovations, the perceived implementation is not optimal. Study used a qualitative approach with the document study methods. The result, SRI innovations methods that have been developed for being able to increase the production of rice on less land and less water, can be used in conjunction with technological innovation infrastructure, implemented the optimal procedure is coupled with innovations in the form of guidelines as community empowerment. Concluded, the potential synergies among these innovations can strengthen food security in Indonesia. Keywords: Resilience, Vulnerability, Synergy, Innovation, Infrastructure 1. INTRODUCTION Indonesia was the country self-sufficient in rice. However, mishandling of food security policy predicates lead to loss of self-sufficiency, turning into a rice importing country. This is unfortunate, because Indonesia's geographical position on the equator is actually considered to be a potential for agricultural climate. Indonesia in 1990 did not make the list of the ten countries that import rice on FAO version, but in 2000 became the country's largest rice importer though still maintaining the order of rice producers, which means indicates a large increase in domestic consumption (Krisnamurthi, 2003). The role of the agricultural sector is very important from the food needs of the population must meet (Nainggolan , 2006: 78) The government should implement food policies, which ensure food security which includes supply, diversification, security, institutional, and food organizations. This policy is necessary to increase food self-sufficiency (Arifin, 2004). Food security shows on three aspects: availability, stability, Accessibility. Availability of food means that the food distributed evenly, stability means that food is available at all times, accessibility gives an understanding that food can be accessible to all people. (Thomson and Metz, 1997) As the backbone of sustainable economic development, food security is not enough available all the time, but also must have a quality food with adequate nutrients, safe for consumption. (Law No. 7/1996 on food) Since the last few years appears seriousness of the declining ability of Indonesia to meet food security for its people. Sourced food needs of the agricultural sector, where the agricultural sector is expected to be able to support the development of food security which aims to achieve food security for all households in sufficient quantity, quality and adequate nutrition, safe to eat, equitable and affordable by every individual (Atmandt, Media Economics and management, 2010: 53). Incessant agricultural extension in the previous period, causing farmers know chemical fertilizers. 59 However, what happens then is, to increase grain production, farmers have become accustomed to excessive use of chemical fertilizers, which destroy the composition of the soil and the environment, so that the soil becomes depleted of nutrients. In addition, due to climate change, changes in the catchment area, the availability of irrigation water is reduced causing a conflict that threatens the water supply of rice from farmers. Due to the increasing number of population affected the food needs improvement but is not accompanied by an increase in rice production that draw, could potentially lead to food insecurity problems. This drought is becoming one of the scourge that it is difficult for farmers to get a bountiful harvest, as well as, the problem difficulty will be sufficient farmland. Therefore, an effort is needed to address, how the efforts to be made, so that problems of food insecurity due to dry land can be resolved. Among them there are efforts to increase the productivity of rice per hectare with the intensification plant. However, cultivating innovation and efficient use of water that needs to be done to replace the conventional pattern of water-intensive rice which needs to be matched with the right infrastructure. The concept of food security according to Law No. 7 of 1996 is, fulfillment of conditions of food for households, as reflected in the availability of sufficient food, both quantity and quality, safe, equitable and affordable. The concept of food security can be summarized in the aspect, food availability is sufficient amount of food, food security is food that is free from the possibility of biological, chemical and other objects disrupt, harm and harm to the human condition and guaranteed quality that meets the nutrient content of the material and trading standards food and beverages. Evenness of food: the food distribution system that supports the availability of food at all times and evenly. Affordability of food: ease of households to obtain food at an affordable price. (Purwaningsih, 2008). Based on these things, then, the concept of innovation in the food security infrastructure next conceptualized to meet the sub-system improvements in food availability, sub-system of food distribution and sub-systems of food consumption, can be optimized with the synergy of innovation efforts. The aim is in response to the food security policy with peeling various innovations that can enable to be applied in line in an effort to remove food insecurity and increase food security, which is expected to be useful to give another view on the future development of food security policy based on the synergy of the development and utilization of innovation . 2. MATERIAL AND METHODS Documentary method, is one of the methods of data collection used in social research methodology to browse historical data. (Burhan Bungin 2007). The word comes from the Latin document that 'docere', which means teaching. Definition of the word documents are often used by experts in two senses: first, means of written sources for the historical information as the reciprocal of oral testimony, artifacts, relics painted. The second notion is intended for official papers and letters such as the letter states treaty, statute, grants, concessions, and more. Furthermore, documents in a broader understanding of each process based on the kind of evidence that any source, whether it is to be written, oral, picture, or the archaeological. (Louis Gottschalk,1986) If it is assumed that the document is the source of 60 data is written, it is divided into two categories: official and unofficial sources. An official source documents created / issued by institutions / individuals on behalf Institution. Two forms of official sources of formal and informal official sources. (E. Kosim, 1988). A literature study by reviewing the written sources such as documents, annual reports, laws and regulations. Written sources can be a primary or secondary source, so that the data obtained can also be primary or secondary. This study used a qualitative approach with the method of literature. The document is meant here is food security-related documents, such as legislation, articles, research papers in various journals as reference material, research reports, policy documents, guidelines. Acquisition of documents is done either through downloading Internet data, as well as direct acquisition of data documents. 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION In general the policy of food security in 2010-2014, the government puts food security as one of the national priorities, which in conjunction with the development of food security, the government is giving emphasis on improvement: food security sub-systems, sub-systems and sub-systems of food distribution food consumption. Development sub-system availability of food, is directed to ensure national food security and sovereignty. Government seeks to achieve sustainable self-sufficiency and maintain self-sufficiency for food commodities, with inter-sector integration strategy, which is geared as a basis for addressing food insecurity issues that still occur in parts of Indonesia. Development of food distribution, geared to ensure the availability of national and regional food that is always in adequate condition, well managed, which is characterized by the stability of food prices affordable consumer, and also provide adequate income for farmers. Efforts were made, with the development of food reserves and improved food distribution chain. The development of sub-systems food consumption is intended to develop the quality of people's food consumption, through diversification of food consumption, by making use of local food resources including food safety and to improve the utilization of the wealth of biological resources. New innovations in rice cultivation was originally introduced by Fr.Henry de Laulaníe, the SRI, which uses organic fertilizer and water usage slightly. Furthermore, socialized by Norman Uphoff, and became known in Indonesia in 1997 the Ministry of Public Works also Ministry of Agriculture, through the Directorate of Technical and Research Agency, did the introduction of SRI method or ICM (Integrated Crop Pattern) on the technical implementation unit, to introduce how to grow planting 'macak-macak' are more waterefficient. It also involves non-governmental organizations such as Aliksa and private companies, Medco, to introduce organic SRI. Form of activities such as socialization, plots to irrigation officials and farmers. Innovations that have been developed in the field in the form of rice cultivation using fertilizers and drugs made from organic, rice cultivation is gradually reducing the use of chemical-based fertilizers, use less water and have a young plant. This cropping innovation can save up to 40% water and production rose 2 to 4ton per ha, when compared with the conventional pattern. With this innovation, the composition of the soil can be improved due to the use of organic fertilizers impartial. Water saving irrigation was found to extend IP and possible expand the area for irrigation water can be drained surface, such as, agricultural lands in West Java that use a lot of surface water irrigation. In area-scarce regions that tend to be dry and hard to apply surface irrigation, as there is lots of land in the 61 East Nusa Tenggara region, the use of sprinkler innovation can help to facilitate the farmers to irrigate the fields. SRI innovation can be applied to areas that use surface water or ground water area use. By using SRI, then a reduction in the hours of operation for the water pump that uses ground water. Existing constraints, the institutional weakness in maintenance operations, resulting in the existence of technology is often not effective, can be strengthened through institutional strengthening innovation in the development of procedures for the groups, which is applied to the community through guidance to achieve independence. With innovation, food security subsystem is expected to be maintained in sustainability. The government regulation on the division of tasks between the central government, provincial government and district / city governments, can be used to accelerate the unification of the program in accordance with the duties and authority. The change legislation sub field of water resources and agriculture led to the overflow of the main tasks and functions, thus, required debriefing personnel / human resources with the material field of water resources (irrigation water saving) and the preparation of the community in accordance with the socio-economic conditions of society, so that the activities can run perfectly. Development of farmer groups has been the authority in agriculture, the agricultural officers need to be equipped with the materials management of irrigation networks (Maintenance Operations, finance, and so on) as did the Ministry of Public Works to build Farmers Water User. Maintenance operation and implementation of primary and secondary irrigation network, then becomes the authority and responsibility of the central government and local governments, according to the authority, but for the operation and maintenance of tertiary irrigation network into rights and responsibilities of farmer water user community. (Application of Appropriate Technology Division of Public Works). In a sub-system of food distribution, innovation in the use of a new formula for building a connecting road asphalt known as asbuton, a role in facilitating the creation of good roads to transport between regions, ensuring the availability of food to support the national and regional levels, in adequate condition. Similarly, technological innovations in the construction of bridges and bridge frame design, allowing the opening of overland connection between the islands, which is expected to reduce shipping cost and shorten the travel time, in order to realize the affordability of food prices for consumers. Ease of transportation between regions also allow for inter-regional cross of Commerce masing2 with superior products, which can guarantee the diversity of food resources that can be obtained for each region, which takes in food consumption system development. For areas that are often experienced crop failures, innovations in rice varieties including on the use of SRI, allowing improvements in land productivity. Again, one of the Government's efforts to improve the economy of the community is to adopt Appropriate Technology in accordance with Instruction 3 Year 2001 TTG is a technology that fits the needs of society, able to answer the problems of the people, not to damage the environment, and can be utilized by society as easily and generate additional value from the economic and environmental aspects. Of the many results of the product, some products have shown good effort to meet the criteria, and are considered suitable for use and further developed, in order to support efforts to remove the vulnerability and create food security is improved. Some of the products related to the 62 construction of roads and bridges, can be used to improve national connectivity, which will facilitate the distribution of food between regions, which is expected to minimize the difficulty of certain stocks of foodstuffs that are not produced locally. While product innovation related irrigation, can support the adequacy of water for farmers, in an effort to increase the productivity of farmers. The following table shows the innovation of products that can be selected to be used together depending on the situation. Similarly, the related social innovation, is one of the efforts to improve community development, so as to create self-sufficiency in the future. Tabel 1. Innovative Product Output of Research And Development Agency of Public Works (BALITBANG PU) Can Be Supporting Alternative Food Security Output Of Alternative Innovative Products to Support Food Security (Written by Name of The Original) BALITBANG PU Prototype Alat Ekstraksi Asbuton Daur Ulang Perkerasan Jalan Dengan Semen Ditempat Cold Mix Recycling Foam Bitumen, CMRFBStone Matrix/Mastic Alphat (SMA) Aspal Porus Teknologi Lapis Pondasi Pasir Aspal (LPPA) Asphalt Treated Permeable Base (ATPB) Campuran Beraspal Hangat Pasir Tailing Untuk Bahan Jalan Pemmanfaatan Bahan Lokal (Batu Karang dan Pasir Laut) dan Sub Standar Otta Seal Campuran Beraspal Panas /Hangat Dengan Asbuton Perkerasan Beton Semen Pracetak-Prategang Lapisan Penetrasi Macadam Asbuton (LPMA) Butur Seal Asbuton Campur Panas Hampar Dingin (Cold Paving Hot Mix Asbuton, CPHMA) Lapis Tipis Beton Aspal (Thin Hot Mix Alphat, HMA) Slurry Seal (Untuk Pemeliharaan Preventif) Penambalan Dengan Bahan Tambal Siap Pakai Beton Semprot Untuk Pelindung Lereng Batuan 63 Sistem Perkerasan Cakar Ayam Modifikasi (CAM) Perencanaan Geometri Terowongan Jalan Basis Data Geoteknik Jalan Pelat Ortotropik Baja Segmental Untuk Lantai Jembatan Rangka Baja (Prototipe :Kabupaten Bandung) Gelagar Baja KompositDengan Sistem Flens Prategang (Prototipe: Bekasi) Pengembangan Jembatan Integral Penuh Gelagar Beton (Prototipe :Sumedang) Teknologi Jembatan Sementara Berbahan Dasar Material Komposit Pilar Langsing Beton Bertulang Untuk Jembatan Pembebanan Bangunan Pelindung Pilar Jembatan Teknologi Evaluasi Struktural Jembatan Teknologi Pemetaan Tingkat Korosi Lingkungan Untuk Jembatan Audit Keselamatan Jalan (AJK) Mobile Data Collection System (MDCS) Model Analitis Perhitungan Temperatur Perkerasan Jalan Untuk Penentuan Kelas Konerja Aspal Teknologi Daur Ulang Jalan Ramah Lingkungan System Rice Intensification (SRI) Biggun Sprinkler Bendungan Bawah Tanah Bangunan Akuifer Buatan Simpanan Air Hujan (ABSAH) Bangunan dan Pelimpah Tipe Gergaji Bendung Karet Lahan Basah Buatan Sebagai Teknologi Daur Ulang Air Limbah Box Tersier Dengan Bahan Ferrocement Jaringan Irigasi Perpipaan Irigasi Tetes Pintu Air Otomatis Tahan Korosi (Pertanian Daerah Pasang 64 Surut) Pintu Sorong Tonjong Berbahan GFRC Bangunan Pengendali Sediman Peta Kekeringan Bulanan Kincir Air Mikrohidro Sistem Polder Pengendali Banjir SABO DAM Semen Tanah Buku Seri Teknologi Irigasi Pedoman Rekayasa Sosial Pembangunan Bendungan Panduan Penyusunan Rencana Tindak Pengelolaan Situ Instrumen Evaluasi Pendampingan Gerakan Nasional Kemitraan Penyelamatan Air (GN-KPA) Teknologi Pengolahan Air Gambut Individual Untuk Daerah Rawa Pasang Surut Source: Sorting Results from Catalog PusJatan, Catalog PusAir, Catalog PusSosekling, Catalog Puskim 4. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS In general the policy of food security in 2010-2014, the government puts food security as a national priority. In relation to the development of food security, the government gave emphasis on improvement: the availability of food sub-systems, sub-systems and sub-systems of food distribution food consumption. There are many innovations that have been found in order to answer the problem of food security. As an illustration, here shown SRI, Sprinkler, Buton Asphalt also another innovation in the form of models and best procedures in the form of guidelines. Innovation in technology is difficult to walk alone with optimal, if not accompanied by a briefing for community empowerment as a potential user, thus, necessary synergy between innovation. Similarly, between innovation stretcher, it is better to run together and complement each other, rather than run on their own. It is recommended to policy makers and stakeholders, so that in the handling of food insecurity on food security policy, the results of the review of the innovation is necessary, to see the possibility of increasing optimization, if the products of the corresponding innovation can be applied together and raise synergies. 65 5. REFERENCES Application of Appropriate Technology Division of Public Works. In 2005. Bungin, M. Burhan. Qualitative Research 2008; Communication, Economics, Public Policy, and Social Studies. Jakarta: Kencana. Bustanul Arifin. 2004 Economic Analysis Pertanioan Indoneisa. Jakarta. Buku Kompas. Center for Sosekling. 2011. Socioeconomic Planning Model Test applicability of Irrigation Water In Save. Department of Food Security Guidance Pertanian.Badan-Food Security Council. Situation Assessment 2002 Community Food Barn in West Java and Central Java province. Availability of Food Development Center. 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Vol 9 number 1, June 2008 67 Brubuh: A Traditional Method To Keep Environmental Sustainability In Javanese Society Surono Researcher at Center for Pancasila Studies, Gadjah Mada University, Indonesia Email: suronokarti@ugm.ac.id ABSTRACT : Brubuh is a logging method that is practiced by javenese society and used for bamboo and wood. This tradition strongly supports environmental sustainability. Brubuh is one of alternatives to solving environmental problems in Indonesia, and even the world. Brubuh method is based on the Javanese calendar. Brubuh activities are usually conducted in ―mangsa tua‖ because at this time wood has lignin content lower than other time? With the Brubuh method, the Javanese society is able to make better quality of bamboo and wood without using chemicals. Wood produced by this method proved to be stronger, more durable (not easily eaten by insects, fungi, andother organisms that can damage and weathering of wood), and has texture better than using modern methods. Brubuh method able to keep the balance of nature and sustainable clean water. This paper is an ethnography research. The aim of this paper is to explore and analyze how Brubuh method become a model to keep environment sustainability? What is the meaning of Brubuh for Javanese society? This paper based on case studies that carried out in Yogyakarta. Keywords: Brubuh, traditional logging method, Javanese society, environmental sustainability, Javanese Calendar System 1. INTRODUCTION One of the environmental problems in Indonesia and even the world is environmental destruction caused by illegal logging and forest clearance for industrial land conversion. As we know that everyone is trying to cut down the trees as much as possible. Human greed, which wants as to much benefit in a short time. As a result, the current Indonesian people are bear the burden of the brutal action in nature treatment, especially forests. Data from the Ministry of Forestry shows that Indonesia's forest decrease rate reached 0.4 million hectares/year in 2009-2011. The Hansen study found that about 0.84 hectares/year in 2012. In fact, the destruction of forests caused by to global warming, natural disasters, also interfere with the survival of biodiversity. Rapid destruction of forests is one of problems caused by modern models of logging. We know that the models that have been ignore are traditional models that are full of wisdom. Everyone is trying to cut down trees as much as possible. Human greed to benefit a lot in a short time become the main cause. Floods, landslides, drought, famine, disease, and various other natural disasters become a daily sight. We have an alternative to solve that problems. We have to go back to Indonesian local knowledge that related to the environment. To developing environmental sustainability must be adapted local wisdom like local knowledge, and sustainable resource management policies and practices must be tailored to the local conditions, especially in relation to common property resources. Duffield, Gardner, Berkes and Singh in their study show that the 68 local people have sensible and meaningful indicators for a given area that cover all three dimensions of sustainability--ecological, economic, and social (1998). One of local knowledge is Brubuh method. A logging method that is owned by Javanese society that strongly supports environmental sustainability. Brubuh is a logging method use bamboo as media of transformation owned by Javanese society. This tradition strongly supports to environmental sustainability. Brubuh method based on the Javanese calendar. Brubuh activities usually conducted in “mangsa tua” because at this time wood have lignin content lower than other time. Research Question The aim of this paper is (1) to explore and analyze how Brubuh method become a model to keep environment sustainability? (2) What is the meaning of Brubuh for Javanese society? 2. MATERIALS AND METHOD This paper was written based on qualitative research that relies on data collection using participation observation and interviews. The research was conducted in Sleman, Yogyakarta. The selection of study sites based on the writer wishes to see the variations of the Brubuh model. Researcher use interview dan observation method to get data of brubuh from informant. Interview is one of main method on ethnographic and qualitative research. In the interview process we should: listen well and respectfully, developing an ethical engagement with the participant, acquires a self awareness of our role in the co-construction of meaning during the interview process, be recognizant of ways in which both the ongoing relationship and the broader social context affect the participants, recognize that dialogue is discovery and only partial knowledge will ever be attained (Heyl, 2001). The data collected and analyzed by descriptive qualitative method. To sharpen the analysis of this study is also equipped with a literature review of research relevant to this theme. 3. RESULT AND DISCUSSON A. Brubuh and Bamboo Brubuh is a form of Javanese tradition of logging method. It derived from the Javanese word “Brubuh” which means “totally wood/bamboo logging”. Generally the term used when someone wants to logging of trees. In particular this term used when a person will be felling bamboo for a lot of numbers and at certain time. This tradition can be proposed to the world for environmental problem solving3. Brubuh is very simple and not expensive. But, this method depend on Javanese agriculture calendar system. This dependence cause any problems to application this method if anyone 3 Culture is human adaptation to their environment to sustain of life in accordance with the best traditions/ condition (Susanto in Roqib, 2007) 69 not have knowledge about Javanese calendar system. Because this calendar system not written (for international understanding). In Javanese culture, Brubuh is closely associated with bamboo logging. Using the Brubuh method, any person required to comply with the specific rules, so it cannot be done in any time. In general, the method Brubuh is very defined by a time of cutting/logging. The time of logging not using AD calendar system but with Pranata Mangsa (Javanese calendar system). Pranata Mangsa calendar system have specialized count system to implementing for bamboo logging. If use Brubuh method we will produce good quality and durable bamboo. On many cases, Brubuh activity often unrelated with bamboo needs from Javanese society. Brubuh will be done when time of Brubuh has arrived although the community are not need of bamboo. It caused when bamboo age ready to harvest or for savings/stock. Javanese society have no desire to arbitrarily cut down bamboo, especially (if it) will be use as a material building. They would choose wait for time of Brubuh arrives instead to cut down any time when time of Brubuh not yet arrive. Using the method of Brubuh in the face of deforestation of bamboo is closely related with the important position of bamboo in the rural communities of Javanese life. The importance of the bamboo existence for Javanese society makes bamboo have special handling, start from preserve, logging, to storaging. In addition, other special preservation look when the Javanese society always give special place around their house to plant of bamboo. Usually, bamboo tree planting at around their house and near bamboo trees created a well to serve the needs of clean water4. B. Brubuh Method This method consists of time, bamboo storaging and soaking: 1. Time of Brubuh One of the main concepts in the Javanese society that related to their life is time. Javanese society when doing various activities always have concept of good and bad time, dina becik lan dina ala (according to the Javenese calendar). A good time would be the consideration of their activities will be able to get good results. While the bad time it is believed will be cause bad effects on they activities. The concept of good and bad time has very detailed counts and deferent from one to another activity. Good time for an activities not necessarily for other activities. One of the concept of time is bad in Javanese society usually was connected with the day of member of their family death. For example not good time is a day of grandmother/ grandfather death (in Javanese term called geblage simbah). Geblage simbah is a time not good for hold activities related to party, such as a wedding, ceremony of thanksgiving and so 4 Young bamboo maked dishes/side dish, when semi elderly often functioned as a string (tus), when the bamboo old age used as material of building (walls, wall-frame, fence, etc.), while the twigs and the stem are dry and unused functioned as firewood, even now the economic value of bamboo are getting prove to materials craft. 70 on. For example, their grandmother died on Sura, 1 (in Javanese calendar) their families are forbidden to hold a wedding ceremony that coincides at the 1st Sura. If they interfering that date, Javanese society believe will be happen bad effect to that family. At the others activities, Javanese society have good and bad time too. Example, on activities of buying and selling of cattle, Javanese also has a good and not good time. Cattle very good if buy and/ or sell at the Kliwon or Pon days (day of Javanese calendar have five days a week: Pahing, Pon, Wage, Kliwon, and Legi ). Activity of cattle buying and selling not good on Legi days, if someone buying or selling cattle on Legi day, they believe meat of cattle will be sugary. Because in Javanese term, Legi mean: sweet. Javanese society also has a concept of good and bad time to Brubuh. Brubuh activity have best time at mangsa kasanga (ninth season) in Javanese calendar. Mangsa kasanga if converted in the AD calendar system coincides on the 2 – 26, March. Javanese society believed if mangsa kasanga is the best for Brubuh activity. Mangsa kasanga has any characteristic that are required by human being to get the good quality of the fells. Mangsa Kasanga means the ninth of Pranata Mangsa Calendar System. To get good understanding of Pranata Mangsa Calendar System please read the table below: Num Season Date Name 1. Kasa (kartika) June 22-August 1 First Season 2. Karo (poso) August 2-August 24 Second season 3. Katelu August 25-September 17 Third season 4. Kapat (sitra) September 18 - October 12 Fourth season 5. Kalima (manggala) October 13 - November 8 Fifth season 6. Kanem (naya) 9 November - 21 December Sixth season 7. Kapitu (palguna) December 22 - February 2 Seventh Season 8. Kawolu (wasika) February 3 - February 28 Eighth Season 9. Kasanga (jita) March 1 - March 25 Ninth Season 10. Kasadasa (srawana) March 26-April 18 tenth season 11. Dhesta (pradawana) April 19 - May 11 eleventh season 12. Sadha (asuji) Twelfth Season May 12-June 21 Table: Pranata Mangsa Calendar System In Javanese thought, mangsa have special characteristics that are not same one another. In this chapter I will be describe about mangsa kasanga only. For other mangsa I do not give special place ini this paper because I have limited pages. Mangsa kasanga has several characteristics: - Main Mangsa: Rendheng-Pangarep-arep (rainy season-hopes) 71 - Period: March 1 to March 25 (25 days/ other reference write March 2 to March 26) Chandra (figuratively): Wedharing wacånå mulyå ("the rise of precious voices" means Animals start speaking out to lure the opposite sex/ looking for couple): Characteristics: Rice flowering; Crickets begin singing, started speaking out, cane flowers (glagah) fall. This is best time to do Brubuh. Woods/ bamboos: best condition for slash, not easy to eat insect and good flexibility. Uniquely, the Pranata Mangsa calendar system had not been written specifically in the Javanese calendar system. So, information about pranata mangsa is not well known by public. Even the Javanese Society was not know well about Pranata Mangsa calendar system. Right now, Pranata Mangsa calendar system written very least it causes knowledge about this calendar system difficult to develop and threatened to perish. At the moment, only old people in the Javanese rural communities who know well about Pranata Mangsa calendar system. Pranata Mangsa calendar system is not a written calendar, Javanese society have a unique ways to knowing exactly mangsa. Javanese society will observe the nature happens around them to know mangsa. It is based on of the different characteristics of the one mangsa with another. In addition, although at the moment there is a conversion system of the mangsa to the AD calendar system, for Javanese rural peasant, especially elderly, that conversion system was not enough to help them to finding exactly season. Javanese countryside not accustomed to using AD calendar system as a guide to their time, they illiteracy. In view of the Javanese society, mangsa kasanga will be come if nature is already showing symptoms as follows: Rice flowering (ancient Javanese only plants rice once a year); Crickets begin to appear and whittling; gangsir started speaking out, glagah flowers fall. That‟s phenomena is a nature signs for mangsa kasangan is coming. This is best time to do Brubuh. At this time (mangsa kasanga) Javanese society believed that the wood/ bamboo in the best condition for slash, not easy to eat insect, and has a good flexibility. When mangsa kasanga is coming Javanese society usually do Brubuh together. When Javanese society asked about, did they have a "scientific" reasons related to the process of Brubuh? Most people do not understand the scientific reasons. Their activities based on the belief that bamboo that logging at mangsa kasanga will not quickly decayed, not easily eaten rodent and has good quality. It‟s like to result of Suthoni research about bamboo, the right time to bamboo logging at the mangsa tuwa (old season, namely ninth season, tenth season, and eleventh season) 2. Storaging Javanese society have special way to treat bamboo. The bamboo has been cut down are placed in standing position (vertical). The Javanese society recognize that the model vertically storage will be help to drying process of bamboo are more evenly distributed. The water contained in the bamboo will go down to the base of the bamboo (butt). So, the drying 72 process of bamboos is evenly. Result for this drying process can be seen to the bamboo color change. Bamboo become browned evenly on entire stalks of bamboo. Javanese society usually avoid the storage model in horizontal position. This storage model would make the process of bamboo drying unevenly. The moisture content of bamboo will go down to the bottom of a bamboo rod, not to the butt. It was seen on the different color of bamboo between the stem on top (has color: Brown) and the stem at the bottom (yellowish-green). This bamboo will not well be used for a material building. This storage model will be affect to the quality of the bamboo. Bamboo stored in vertical position will be strong and flexibility better that stored horizontally. This bamboo storage model used for bamboos that are not immediately used soon. Different treatment given to bamboo that are soon to be utilized (for building materials). First, bamboos are cut according to there quired size and then soaked in water. Soaking must be done when the bamboo in wet conditions. Meanwhile, the dry bamboo does not require immersion (as explained above), because if dry bamboo soaked it will be speed up to process of bamboo decaying. 3. Soaking General process after the bamboo cut down is soaking. To this time, there is not has been definite knowledge how long bamboo should be soaked to get maximum results. If Soaking process is not on the right time the bamboo will be frangible. If soaking process done for long time (too long) it will be rot of bamboo but if too short the process cannot produce a good quality bamboo (The Ministry of forestry, 2012) However, the Java society has a special technique to know when the right time to lift the bamboo from the place of soaking. Bamboo will be stated enough for soaking process when it has changed of smell. If bamboo had started to smell kecing (stench) it refer that soaking for bamboo is enough. The right of bamboo soaking will be able to get the quality and strength of bamboo for tens of years. Thus the use of bamboo will be durable and efficient. So with this soaking model, bamboo will be sustainable in the world and it can even have other added value. The research conducted by Sulthoni (in Ismail, 2009), explaining that soaking the bamboo in water will result in the occurrence of the biological process of fermentation of the lignin contained in the bamboo. The result of this fermentation process can dissolve in the water. In other words, the process of bamboo soaking in the water can lower the levels of lignin, so bamboo not attacked by beetles (and rodent). The process of soaking could not done arbitrarily. Soaking for long time will be decrease levels of lignin too drastic. Whereas, lignin contained in the bamboo is binding between bamboo fiber, so bamboo be sturdy. Therefore Sulthoni, recommends for bamboo soaking preservation should be carried out not more than one month in order to decrease of the strength of bamboo is not too large. C. Problems of Brubuh Brubuh cannot separate from Pranata mangsa. Pranata Mangsa is one of the guidelines that became a guiding tools for Javanese peasant society in thinking, attitude, and 73 manage the nature and agriculture system. The main roles of Pranata Mangsa is to guide Javanese peasant to processing plants, selection the appropriate seed, benchmark of ploughing period of rice fields, plowing, until harvest activity. Refers to meaning of the words, Pranata Mangsa derived from Javanese language: Pranata= Period, mangsa= Season. Pranata Mangsa is calendar system for determine how to farm in Javanese society. Many people say that Pranata Mangsa is a myth because it is considered have not basic scientific studies. Pranata Mangsa are considered rely solely on intuition. So, majority of people do not acknowledge of Pranata Mangsa validity. But, if we further actual observing to Pranata Mangsa, it is proved to be very scientific because it is based on a long observation of character and natural behavior (Pranata Mangsa is empirical) (Sindhunata, 2008). Evidence of Pranata Mangsa is scientific observed when it determining the beginning of mangsa Kasa (a date on the Javenese calendar) that occur when the Sun is on the zenith of Earth's Tropic of cancer (tropic of Cancer, June 22). While mangsa Kapitu started on December 22, when the Sun is on the zenith tropic (the tropic of capricorn). Pranata mangsa is known as a calendar of the agricultural system of Javanese society. The system was standardized by Sri Susuhunan Paku Buwana VII (King of Surakarta). Daljoeni revealed in pranata mangsa have the extraordinary relationship between aspects of the cosmography, bioclimatogy (underlying on socio-cultural life of farming in rural communities) (Daljdoeni, 1983). Pranata mangsa calendar system is the complex calendar system because it can combine sky phenomena and earth. Pranata mangsa calendar system describe the behavior of animals and plants, character of soil that is affected by temperature changes (Sarwanto, et. al., 2010). The Pranata mangsa calendar system also be guidelines for environment preservation.This paper discuss how the Pranata mangsa calendar system used as a guide to cutting down and preservation of wood, especially bamboo. This method is known as Brubuh. So, if we want to talk about Brubuh we can not released from the Pranata mangsa calendar system. Brubuh is a method of bamboo logging, owned by Javanese society, it have unique time, form, and methods. With this method (Brubuh), Javanese society getting the good quality and durable bamboo (not easily eaten by insects, fungi, and other organisms that can damage and weathering of wood). Bamboo harvested with Brubuh method, as a material building, be able to survive more two generations. In addition, the Brubuh method also proved that able to keep the balance and sustainability of environment. Its caused the Brubuh are very closely related to the bamboo tree. As well as, bamboo is one of the best trees are able to keep environment from destruction. Bamboo is the largest producer of oxygen than other trees, bamboo has an absorption of carbon is quite high, bamboo is suitable to improve the critical land too. At the present and future, Pranata mangsa calendar system have more problems. Modernization in agriculture system and global warming being the main reason. Pranata mangsa calendar system is the system that depend on the nature symptom. Its will be lose 74 relevance because the nature condition is uncertainly. Besides, ambition of agricultural industrialization that wants quick results and not harmony with Go Green program. D. Brubuh and Environmental Sustainability Bamboo over this admittedly able to rehabilitate critical lands, useful for soil conservation, and able to control of erosion and landslide prone land. Bamboo is a plant that has the speed to grow better than other plants. It will made bamboo to be leading to deforestation process. Bamboo is also be agent of oxygen production most other than others plant. Bamboo is also capable of absorbing carbon (CO2) are good, and certainly also the local renewable power source with great potential both of economic, social, and environment aspects. (Wijaya, et. al, 2004). Study of Diniaty and Sofia (2000) found that bamboo is very beneficial in nature conservation efforts, because bamboo is very good to withstand the erosion and sedimentation, especially in the banks of the river. In the context of the water, bamboo is also effective to hold the runoff water5. Bamboo also has a suppressor capabilities and produce a lot of oxygen so it can be planted at the settlements and border highway (Diniaty and Sofia, 2000). The model of Brubuh in the Javanese society have function to controll the Javanese society to limit bamboo logging. With Brubuh method Javanese society only logging of bamboo, in a lot of numbers, once for three years. It is related to bamboos age is 3.5 years old, that could be harvested. It assumed each time of Brubuh arrives Javanese society always logging bamboo. In fact, Javanese society not always done Brubuh in one period of the living bamboo. Thus the presence of bamboo will be cared at least 3.5 years old. In addition, the bamboo logging model by Javanese society not use total logging model. Bamboo really ready to harvest only (old age) will be felled. While the bamboos that are young age are left alive. Logging model like this certainly very consider aspects of environmental sustainability. This corresponds to the bamboo plants sustainability that have potential alternative solution for a number of environmental problems, especially in global warming. If the management of bamboo is not done properly it can be impact availability/potential depletion of bamboo plants that will potentially damage the environment, in example erosion. Javanese society aware that bamboo/wood have strategic position in their live, for example as infrastructure (wells, gate, bridge, construction material/ substitute of concrete structures) So, they felt need to keep bamboo and wood in their live. Like at many society in the world, bamboo (especially) have vital position in their live. According to Sujarwo 5 To ensure water resiliency, those responsible for critical infrastructure must avoid, reduce, miti- gate, and ultimately recover from the effects of natural, accidental, or malevolent incidents with minimal impact on endusers. Sustainability of water infrastructure may be achieved through effective management of assets, full-cost pricing of services, efficient use of water, and resource protection (Santora and Wilson, 2008). 75 research, bamboo is one of most popular plants that planted by Indonesian people (2013). It is show that bamboo have much advantages for Indonesian people live. Finally, we need innovation to saving bamboo as a world asset to keep natural stability. Buckingham (et.al. 2011) describe that the challenges of creating a frame for sustainable bamboo management are significant, but given the potential of commercial bamboo forestry to promote sustainable development, provide alternatives to timber products, sequester carbon and restore degraded land, such an initiative could generate far reaching benefits for humanity and the environment. To solve environmental problems have to done by multidisciplinary background. i.e. technology, environmental, socio-cultural, political, economic, etc. because this problem influenced by local/indigenous knowledge (Orlove and Calton, 2010) 4. CONCLUSION Between Brubuh-bamboo and environment have a very close linkages. Javanese society treats bamboo/wood very “polite”. They realize that bamboo and wood play an important role in sustaining of the environment. Javanese society created Brubuh method to slow the rate of bamboo and wood harvesting. With brubuh method, anyone will not be able to cut down bamboo/wood at whenever. People were not going to cut bamboo or wood in a short period because the wood / bamboo harvested using the brubuh method has better quality and durability if compared with other methods. Brubuh help to bamboo/wood life appropriate bamboo life cycle. This condition give an opportunity to nature to repair themselves, to create environmental sustainability. 5. 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Bogor. 77 Before-after Social Perception Differences with the Existence of Green Open Space Conversion (Case Study of Malang City) Dimas Hastama Nugraha Research and Development Office for Social-Economy and Environment of Human Settlements Research Center of Social-Economy and Environment, Ministry of Public Works Laksda Adisucipto St.165 Yogyakarta 55281 Email : dimashastama@yahoo.com; dimyhastanu@gmail.com ABSTRACT : The tendency to the decrease of Open Space quantity has occurred, particularly Green Open Space (RTH) decreases significantly. It has been converted into urban infrastructure and new housing area. Malang city has experiences in converting the empty plot into RTH and vice versa namely RTH into a commercial plot The social perception study is required to discover to what extent the impact of the land conversion in Malang City. The research method is mix methods (quantitative – qualitative). The sampling method used in this research is proportional random-sampling. The data collection period is in August – September 2014. The variables used consist of activity type, performer, activity scale, misuse number, and health. The data which has been collected and analyzed is data before and after conversion (2008 and 2013). The analysis used in this research is statistical descriptive qualitative and Willcoxon Test. The study result suggests that for the case conversion into open space, there are differences occurred before and after the park exist for the type variables, performer, scale, health, happiness, sport and pyschological health. Whereas for the case of open space removal, there are differences before and after the mall exist (park exist) for variable of sport and health activity. Keywords : Conversion, Green open space, social, perception 1. INTRODUCTION 30% proportion mandated by the Spatial Planning Law No. 26/2007 is a minimum measure to ensure the balance of city ecosystem, either balance of hydrology system and microclimate. The wide target by 30% of city area can be achieved gradually through allocation of urban land typically (Permen PU No. 5 Year 2008 regarding Guidelines of Green Open Space Provision and Utilization at the Urban Area). However, the reality in field suggests that the fact is contrary, the existence of RTH (Ruang Terbuka Hijau/ Green Open Space) is far from the ideal portion, the dominant market power has changed the land function thus the RTH existence is much more marginalized even ignored its function and benefits. Siahaan (2010) stated that the tendency in the decrease of public space quantity, particularly at the last 30 years, the RTH reduction is extremely significant. At the big city such as Jakarta, Surabaya, Medan and Bandung, the RTH extension has been reduced from 35% in early 1970s to 10% at present. This also suggests that the existing Green Open Space mostly has been converted into urban infrastructure and new housing area. Perception study is required to discover to what extent the impact of land conversion in Malang City. This study could also use as a consideration material for the stakeholders as the decision maker of the conversion. This research formulated 5 major respects which represent the social aspect in spatial use namely: type of activity, actor/performer of activity, scale of activity, misuse number and health (happiness, sport-exercise and 78 pyschological health). In relation with the RTH relation and social impact, the Regional Public Health Information Paper March 2010 stated that the social aspects emerge from the RTH existence include: 1. places for people to meet and interact, thus increasing social cohesion and social inclusion. 2. education and lifelong learning. 3. well- designed spaces can promote a sense of place and be a source of community pride, helping to reduce crime and the fear of crime. 4. physical activity : active and healthy lifestyles. Hellen (2003) described that the benefit and opportunity of the open space existence can be used by someone daily, weekly or annually as the RTH character. Below are several activities that might emerge: Children‘s Play, Passive Recreation, Active Recreation, Community focus, Cultural focus and Open spaces as educational resources. Whereas Cattel (2006) stated that several type of activity groups occurred at the open space involve: 1. Casual social encounters in public space: Encounter with friends and neighbors at the housing area a. Routine social encounters : occurred routinely b. Serendipitous encounters : group of visitors as market 2. Organised activity in public space a. public open-air events, distinguished into 2 namely institutionally organised and self-organised (community‟s initiative); b. organised recreation and pursuits (competition activity every week) 3. Spaces of no encounter 2. MATERIAL AND METHODS Malang, as one of big city in East Java, has experiences of conversion. Malang has experience in converting the vacant land into RTH and vice versa namely RTH into a commercial purpose (mall). Of these experiences, the aims of this research are to perceive how the society perception is related with before and after condition with the existence of this conversion. The taken case study here is the P2KH Merjosari Park, City Forest and Merbabu Park (converted into RTH or park revitalization) and Malang Olympic Garden (converted into mall). MOG area is still part of Gajayana area which is a green open space. This MOG case tends to have similarity with Malang Town Square case in which its construction was violating the existing and applicable regional regulation at that time. Moreover both shopping center becomes a real evidence on the existence of open space conversion into building. The methodology used here is mix-method approach (quantitative-qualitative). The data collection method is by using questionnaires. The sampling method used in this research is proporsional random-sampling. The data collection period is August – September 2014. The variable used here is consisted of activity type, actors, activity scale, misuse number, and health. Analysis methods used are statistic descriptive qualitative and Wilcoxon Test. Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test is a comparative test of 2 free samples if the data scale is ordinal, interval or ratio but not distributed normally. 79 General Overview of Research Area The Merjosari park is pilot park developed by the Government of Malang City in accommodating 8 (eight) elements of Green City Development Program proclaimed by Ministry of Public Works. The park located at Jalan Mertojoyo Selatan (South Mertojoyo Street), Lowokwaru Subdistrict, Malang City was built over the land by 29,012 m2, Merjosari Village. The placement of park location is focused on the community activity center in form of trading facility of sub district scale namely Dinoyo Market and also higher education activity center in order it can be reached easily and used by the surrounding community and public generally. The activities expected occurred at this park includes education tour, community interaction center, art performances and rare plants conservation. Figure 1. Green Park Merjosari Source: Sanitary and Landscaping Agency of Malang city, 2013, page 63 Merbabu Park, is located in Merbabu St.Malang, east Java. This park have total area 3.942.m2. This park was built by CSR Program PT.Beiersdorf Indonesia (Nivea Cares of Family flagship). This park have facilities mini-futsal field, jogging track, super- aging sport facilities, children playground, and reading facility. 80 Figure 2. Merbabu Park (source : jelajahmalangku.blogspot.com) Buring City Forest is the widest city forest in Malang City with Total Area by 80.000 m2 (Sanitary and Landscaping Agency of Malang City, 2013). The address of Buring City Forest is Mayjen Sungkono street, Kedungkandang subdistrict, Malang City. This city forest is located at BWK East Malang. Figure 3. Buring City Forest One of achievement of Buring City Forest is in 2010 its design has won third place in contest held by the Ministry of Public Works. This city forest began its construction at late 2010 by utilizing almost 8 hectares land. This city forest was built with total funds by Rp6.5 billion with multi years scheme in which its Rp.2.5 billion is 2012 APBD (Regional Expenditure Budget) (http://www.antarajatim.com/lihat/berita/76029/areal-hutan-kota-malang-diperluas) . In addition to meet the extents of 30% RTH, the construction of this Buring City Forest RTH 81 is also expected to carry the education and recreation forest mission for the community of Malang City. Mall Olympic Garden (MOG) is one of shopping, fashion, entertainment area which also known as one of biggest mall in Malang City. It stands near the famous Gajayana Sport Center in Malang City, MOG started operating in May 2008 also reaping pros and contras such as Matos case. Figure 4. Mall Olympic Garden (left) and Orientation towards Gajayana Malang Stadion(right)Source: http://s1204.photobucket.com/user/smg820/media/project/100_9163copy.jpg.html dan maps.google.com 3. RESULT AND DISCUSSION The analysis results are as follows. For Case Study of Merjosari Park, City Forest and Merbabu Park. The Conversion from Non-RTH into RTH a. Type of Activity Table 4.1. Wilcoxon Test for Type of activity Number of activities performed in this location after the Park Exist – Number of activities carried out at this location Before the Park exist Z -7.208 a Asymp.Sig (2-tailed) .000 a. Based on negative ranks b. Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test From Wilcoxon Test , H0: there are no differences between before and after. The value Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000 is less than 5%, therefore the H0 is rejected. The conclusion is, there are differences between before and after the park exists for type of activity. b. Actors of Activity Table 4.2. Wilcoxon Test for Actors of activity Number of people together visiting this location After the Park exist – Number of person together visiting this location Before the Park exist Z -7.288 a Asymp.Sig (2-tailed) .000 82 a. Based on negative ranks b. Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test H0: there are no differences between before and after. The value of Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000 is less than 5%, therefore H0 is rejected. The conclusion is, there are differences between before and after the park exists. c. Scale of Activity 83 Figure 4.1 Percentage of Residence, estimation distance and estimation of time Of bar graph above, it appears that the respondents in Malang City who use the park is dominated by the residents reside near the park location. Amounted to 46,9% respondents come from the same village with the park, and if calculated with the respondents from the same RT/RW and sub district suggests number 81.2%. This suggests that the respondents of park user are mostly residing near the park. Of distance and time taken with the residence also suggests the same respect. More than 90% respondents reside 1-5 km from park with time travelled up to 20 minutes. From residence origin, distance and time travelled of the respondents can be concluded that the park users are the residents at the vicinity of the park. The scale of activity is residents at the vicinity of the park (local residents). c. Number of Misuse Table 4.3. Wilcoxon Test for Number of misuse There is an abuse action against this location After the Park exist – There is an abuse action against this location Before the Park exist Z -3.33 a Asymp.Sig (2-tailed) .739 a. Based on negative ranks b. Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test H0: there are no differences between before and after. The value of Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) 0.739 is more than 5%, therefore H0 is accepted. The conclusion is, there are no differences between before and after the park exists. Table 4.4. Wilcoxon Test for Level of abuse action Security level of abuse action that ever occurred at this location After the Park exist – Security level of abuse action that ever occurred at this location Before the Park exist Z -1.698 a Asymp.Sig (2-tailed) .090 a. Based on negative ranks b. Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test H0: there are no differences between before and after. The value of Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) 0.090 is more than 5%, therefore H0 is accepted. The conclusion is, there are no differences between before and after the park exists. e. Health For health variable, any comfortable indicator, happiness, take exercise (sport) and psychological health. For comfortable indicator, can be seen in Table 4.5. Table 4.5. Wilcoxon Test for Comfortable Indicator Feeling comfortable with this location After the Park exist – Feeling comfortable with this location Before the Park exist 84 Z -4.209 a Asymp.Sig (2-tailed) .000 a. Based on negative ranks b. Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test H0: there are no differences between before and after. The value of Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000 is more than 5%, therefore the H0 is rejected. The conclusion is, there are differences between before and after the park exists. Happiness Table 4.6. Wilcoxon Test for Happiness Indicator Feeling happier with this location After the Park exist – Feeling happier with this location Before the Park exist Z -4.939 a Asymp.Sig (2-tailed) .000 a. Based on negative ranks b. Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test H0: there are no differences between before and after. The value of Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000 is more than 5%, therefore the H0 is rejected. The conclusion is, there are differences between before and after the park exists. Take exercise (sport) Table 4.7. Wilcoxon Test for Sport Indicator Majority of people uses this location to exercise After the Park exist – Majority of people uses this location to exercise Before the Park exist Z -.590 a Asymp.Sig (2-tailed) .555 a. Based on negative ranks b. Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test H0: there are no differences between before and after. The value of Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) 0.555 is more than 5%, therefore the H0 is accepted. The conclusion is, there are no differences between before and after the park exists. Psychological health This location After the Park exist affects the psychological health – This location Before the Park exist affects the psychological health Z -7.380 a Asymp.Sig (2-tailed) .000 a. Based on negative ranks b. Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test H0: there are no differences between before and after. The value of Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000 is less than 5%, therefore the H0 is rejected. The conclusion is, there are differences between before and after the park exist. 85 2. Conversion from RTH into Non RTH a. Type of activity Table 4.8. Wilcoxon Test for Type of activity Number of activities performed in this location After the Mall exist – Number of activities performed in this location Before the mall exist Z -2.653 a Asymp.Sig (2-tailed) .008 H0: there are no differences between before and after. The value of Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) 0.08 is nore than 5%, therefore the H0 is accepted. The conclusion is, there are no differences between before and after the mall exist. b.Actors of activity Table 4.9. Wilcoxon Test for Actors of activity Number of people visiting this location together After the mall exist – Number of people visiting this location together Before the mall exist Z -2.21 a Asymp.Sig (2-tailed) .833 a. Based on negative ranks b. Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test H0: there are no differences between before and after. The value of Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) 0.833 is more than 5%, therefore the H0 is accepted. The conclusion, there are no differences between before and after the park exist. c. Scale of activity 86 Figure 4.2 Percentage of Residence, estimation distance and estimation of time Of bar graph above, it appears that the respondents in Malang City who use the ex-park is dominated by the residents in town. Amounted to 54 % respondents come from town. Of distance and time taken with the residence also suggests the same respect. More than 90% respondents reside 1-5 km from ex-park with time travelled up to 10-15 minutes. The scale of activity is residents at the town. d.Number of Missue Table 4.10. Wilcoxon Test for Number of Missue There are abuse action against this location After the mall exist – There are abuse action against this location Before the mall exist Z -.000a Asymp.Sig (2-tailed) 1.000 a. Based on negative ranks b. Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test 87 H0: there are no differences between before and after. The value of Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) 1.000 is more than 5%, therefore the H0 is accepted. The conclusion is, there are no differences between before and after the mall exist. Table 4.11. Wilcoxon Test for Level security of abuse action The level security of abuse action that ever emerged at this location After the mall exist – Level security of abuse action that ever emerged at this location Before the mall exist Z -.277a Asymp.Sig (2-tailed) .782 a. Based on negative ranks b. Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test H0: there are no differences between before and after. The value of Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) 0.782 is more than 5%, therefore H0 is accepted. The conclusion is, there are no differences between before and after the mall exist. e. Health Comfortable Table 4.11. Wilcoxon Test for Comfortable Indicator Feeling comfortable with this location After the Mall exist – Feeling comfortable with this location Before the Mall exist Z -.-1.020 Asymp.Sig (2-tailed) .308 a. Based on negative ranks b. Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test H0: there are no differences between before and after. The value of Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) 0.308 is more than 5%, therefore the H0 is accepted. Conclusion is, there are no differences between before and after the mall exist. Happiness Table 4.12. Wilcoxon Test for Happiness Indicator Feeling happier with this location After the Mall exist – Feeling happier with this location Before the Mall exist Z -.537a Asymp.Sig (2-tailed) .592 a. Based on negative ranks b. Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test H0: there are no differences between before and after. The value of Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) 0.592 is more than 5%, therefore H0 is accepted. Conclusion is, there are no differences between before and after the mall exist. Take exercise (sport) Table 4.13. Wilcoxon Test for Sport Indicator Majority of people use this location to exercise After the Mall exist – Majority of people use this location to 88 exercise Before the Mall exist. Z -5.099a .000 Asymp.Sig (2-tailed) a. Based on negative ranks b. Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test H0: there are no differences between before and after. The value of Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000 is less than 5%, therefore the H0 is accepted. The conclusion is, there are differences between before and after the mall exist. Table 4.14. Wilcoxon Test for Psychological Health This location After the Mall exist affects psychological health – This location Before the Mall exist affects the psychological health Z -.505a Asymp.Sig (2-tailed) .614 a. Based on negative ranks b. Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test H0: there are no differences between before and after. The value of Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) 0.614 is more than 5%, therefore the H0 is accepted. The conclusion is, there are no differences between before and after the mall exists. Results recapitulation from this study Table 4.15. Results recapitulation from this study Variable Conversion from RTH Conversion from Non RTH into Non RTH (before into RTH (before and after) and after) Type of Activity No differences Any differences Actors of activity No differences Any differences Scale of activity Town scale Local scale Number of missue No differences No differences Health Happiness No differences Any differences Sport Any differences No differences Psychological Health No differences Any differences 4. CONCLUSION For social perception, conversion from RTH into Non RTH (before and after) have impact to health, especially sport (take exercise). Neverthless for type of activity, actors, happiness, and pyschological health no have impact for the case. Scale of activity form this case is become town scale. For social perception, conversion from Non RTH into RTH (before and after) have impact to health, especially sport (take exercise). Type of activity, actors, happiness, and pyschological health also have impact for the case. Scale of activity form this case is become local scale. 89 5. REFERENCES Arwanda Afri.2007. Kebijakan Pemerintah Kota Malang Dalam Pembangunan Mal Olympic Garden (MOG). Thesis, Tidak diterbitkan Dinas Kebersihan dan Pertamanan Kota Malang .2012. Dokumen Laporan Akhir Masterplan Ruang Terbuka Hijau Kota Malang Regional Public Health.2010.Healthy Open Spaces: A summary of the impact of open spaces on health and wellbeing, Regional Public Health Information Paper March 2010, Lower Hutt. Siahaan, James. 2010. Ruang Publik: Antara Harapan dan Kenyataan. Buletin Penataan Ruang edisi 4c;16 Woolley, Helen.2003. Urban Open Space. USA and Canada: Spon Press Website Jelajahmalangku.blogspot.com diakses pada tanggal 15 September 2014 http://s1204.photobucket.com/user/smg820/media/project/100_9163copy.jpg.htmldan maps.google.com diakses 17 september 2014 90 Water Pumping System (WPS) For Supporting Community Activities And Infrastructure Sustainability (Case of Baron and Ngobaran, Gunung Kidul, DIY) Bima Setya Nugraha, SH., M.Sc(Cand). Lana Prihanti Putri, BIB. Management Infrastructure and Community Development Graduate School of Gadjah Mada University ABSTRACT : The study was conducted in two infrastructure WPS Baron and Ngobaran. The infrastucture development of WPS project is intended to provide access to a better clean water especially in Gunung Kidul. The purpose of this study was to identify the factors that lead to differences in community development between the two places, Baron and Ngobaran area, especially in the economic aspect. This study uses the Livelihoods Impact Assessment for assessing the diverse positive and negative impact on both area that different types of tourism can have on people‘s asset base, portfolio of diverse activities, specific outcomes which they seek, and their influence over organisations. The research began with a study of the infrastructure development plan outlines WPS as an entry point for community empowerment model analysis. Then, be assessed by the performance of the project if it able to get a good public accessibility. A focus on livelihoods offers a useful perspective on tourism for enhancing local benefits. The impact of the event is to identify the response and adaptation of society and the resulting residue associated with the sustainability of infrastructure development programs. This has implications for policy-makers, tourism planners, communities, business and NGOs. Key Words: water pumping system, livelihoods impact assessment or sustainable livelihoods‘ framework, in- depth interviews, focus group discussion. 1. INTRODUCTION Water is a natural resource that has a vital function for the life of the living creatures on earth. Water also needs to be protected in order to be beneficial for human life and other living organisms. Therefore, water has a very strategic role and should remain available and sustainable, so as to support of life and implementation the development in the present and in the future. Without water, life would not be viable The purpose of the water supply system is to provide a sufficient amount of water for the needs of the community in accordance with the level of progress and development of an area. The water requirement for each activity can vary among others the provision of water for domestic needs, the needs of industry, commerce and the need for non-domestic (Soemarwoto, 1991). To meet the need for clean water in rural areas often the community use wells and river water around the settlement and utilize the services of the Regional Owned Water Company. Agency is then tasked to prepare and distribute clean water to the community as a consumer, but sometimes taps are often constrained by both technical and cost. This is due to a lack of raw water quality, quantity, continuity and production capacity and the high cost of piping network if necessary to go to remote areas. 91 This project pattern attachment with the concept of empowerment and community development is very strong. In rural areas where people still embrace togetherness then an infrastructure must also be concerned with this. This is what makes it interesting to study. How an infrastructure that has the new technology should be able to side with local communities to ensure public accessibility to clean water. How did the pattern of response and participation of the community in order to achieve an appropriate infrastructure principle of sustainable development. This study is expected to answer all questions related to this project related to Community Development especially in economic impact. The economic impact is supported by the baron and Ngobaran condition as a tourist area. The tourism industry in Indonesia, especially Special Region of Yogjakarta (DIY) is growing and therefore not only provides growth opportunities for existing tourism enterprises, but also for the establishment of new tourism ventures, included micro small medium tourism entreprises (MSMTE). Developing countries have diversereasons to use tourism as a strategy towards development. Developing countries have been using tourism to generate highly sought after foreign exchange to handle the problems of trade imbalance many of them are facing. In macro level reasons are to achieve international status, using tourism as a mechanism for co-integrating and unifying countries that have multi-ethnic population. In micro level reasons, growth in the tourism industry will facilitate job creation and increase their income, which are much needed in Indonesia. We know that in the last three decades, Yogyakarta has grown rapidly as a tourist center and became the third most visited destination by international travellers in Indonesia (after Jakarta and Bali). Traditionally, Baron and Ngobaran, both have beach as tourist destination in the southern part of the Gunung Kidul Regency, Yogyakarta. The potential tourism products of both Baron and Ngobaran are the beach or sands and water as a tourist (domestic) destination and for supporting tourism there are many kind of traditionally handycraft as a souvenir. On other hand, for supporting destination, there are many stalls or kiosks which delivering traditional foods and drink. However, Baron has a specific attraction such as under ground river attraction (floating tires) and Ngobaran also has specific tourism attraction such as Hinduism ritual place. The purpose of this study was to identify the factors that lead to differ the community development between the two places, the Baron WPS area and Ngobaran WPS area such as: - institutional arrangements (Institutional rules, human resources, and finance), - delivery mechanism (efficiency, effectiveness, and equity ) effects, - response, and - adaptation. 2. MATERIALS AND METHODS Population Livelihoods Based on Gunung Kidul in figures (2013), the growth rate of the labor force and rapid employment growth is relatively slow causing the unemployment problem in the region. 92 Unemployment in Gunung Kidul still be a problem that needs to be resolved. In this discussion the working age population (labor force) is defined as the population aged 15 years and above. Working age population and labor Force comprising „Not Work Force‟. The population included in the labor force is the population working or looking for work, while the not labor force are those going to school, taking care of household or doing other activities. Based on Social, Manpower and Transmigration Services of Gunungkidul Regency, number of New Registered Job Seekers 2012 in Gunungkidul Regency were 3,840 persons or 35,35 Percents increased as compared to 2011. In 2009, the agricultural sector is a sector that absorbs most of the labor, which reached 51.76%. The open unemployment rate in 2009 was 4.81% up from the year 2008 level of 3.29%. Decrease in unemployment rate in 2008 compared to 2007 is absorbed by the industry was the processing sector, the trade, hotels and restaurants. Percentage of Population Aged 15 Years and Older who work less than 35 hours a week in Gunung Kidul Year 2008 was 30.73% decline in 2009, amounted to 21.22%. While the working population in 2009 according to the status on their own (6.48%), trying to workers not fixed (39.10%), attempted to permanent workers (1.15%), labor / employee / employees (24.22 %), and unpaid workers (29.06%). Based on these data, illustrates that state workers are on their own without the help of others (independent) is relatively small compared to workers who become non-permanent workers and workers who are not paid. The percentage of people who are actively involved in the world of work and in need of work can be seen from the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR). LFPR Gunung Kidul period 2004 to 2009 shows a decreasing trend. LFPR Gunung Kidul In 2004 was 79.85, dropped to 74.42 in 2009. LFPR are decline during this period showed a reduced number of working-age population belonging to the labor force because they choose to continue their education, the household, and other activities. Largest employment in Gunung Kidul district until 2009 was dominated by the agricultural sector (61.87%). Employment in the trade, hotels and restaurants reached 12.30%, while the service sector and manufacturing sector respectively absorb employment for 10.06% and 3.38%. 93 Figure 1 Administrative Map of Gunung Kidul District Source: RPJMD Gunung Kidul, 2010 Local Economy The success of economic development of a region can be reflected from a few macro indicators. One of the macro indicators are used to seeing the success of development is the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP). Figures GDP at current prices in 2008, Gunung Kidul district is Rp. 5.50 trillion, which shows the increase of 12.93 percent over the previous year. Whereas in 2009, the GDP figures at current prices stood at Rp 5.98 trillion in Gunung Kidul district. Compared with the previous year, the GDP figures increased by 8.72 per cent (Source: BPS district. Gunung Kidul). Based on GDP figures at constant prices in 2000, the economy in Gunung Kidul also experienced positive growth, namely 3.07 trillion in 2008 and 3.19 trillion in 2009. Judging from the structure of the economy, suggesting that the major contributor to the economy in Gunung Kidul district during the period 2005 - 2009 was dominated by the agricultural sector, followed by the services sector, trade, and manufacturing. In 2009 the sector contributed four each at 35.82 percent, 16.954 percent, 14.87 percent and 9.18 percent. The agricultural sector, as the largest contributor to the economy Gunung Kidul district, apparently during the period 2005-2009, amounting contributions tend to fluctuate; 35.40 percent, 35.39 percent, 35.54 percent, 34.03 percent, 35.07 percent and 35,82 percent. Based on the above data, if the economy grows naturally the manufacturing sector, the trade, hotels and restaurants as well as the service sector will grow faster than the agricultural sector is resourced-based economic. 94 Water Pumping System The purpose of the water supply system is to provide a sufficient amount of water for the needs of the community in accordance with the level of progress and development of an area. The water requirement for each activity can vary among others the provision of water for domestic needs, the needs of industry, commerce and the need for non-domestic (Soemarwoto, 1991). To meet the need for clean water in rural areas often the community use wells and river water around the settlement and utilize the services of the Regional Owned Water Company. Agency is then tasked to prepare and distribute clean water to the community as a consumer, but sometimes taps are often constrained by both technical and cost. This is due to a lack of raw water quality, quantity, continuity and production capacity and the high cost of piping network if necessary to go to remote areas. a. Physical Condition Water treatment in WPS Baron does not use chemicals to clear up but using slow sand filtration system. WPS Baron and also be connected with the WPS Ngobaran is now serving 6,400 SR. Availability of underground water in Gunung Kidul by RPJMD Gunung Kidul, among others: a. Sub System Baron with water discharge 4000 liters / sec. b. Sub System Bribin with water discharge 800 liters / sec. c. Sub System Seropan with water discharge 1200 liters / sec. d. Sub System Ngobaran with water discharge 120 liters / sec. b. Capacity Four districts in Gunung Kidul, Yogyakarta namely Tanjungsari district, Paliyan district, Panggang district, and Saptosari district, now enjoying piped water. Through the Water Supply System (WPS) Baron built by the Japanese government grants valued at Rp78, 89 billion and Rp 7 billion budget DIY capable of serving 19,000 residential connections with a capacity of 100 liters per second. The first phase of the new 7,400 house connections enjoyed by the rate charged by Rp3.700 per cubic meter. c. Function Process water seepage is very high in the ground karst, resulting surface water cannot be accommodated properly and cause an imbalance between water demand with the availability of water (White, WB, and White, EL, 1989). Hence this imbalance causes water shortage in the Baron and Ngobaran in Paliyan District, PAnggang District, Saptosari District, Tanjungsari District, in Gunung Kidul regency. To overcome the water shortage was the development of water resources (Koesnadi 2005 and Act 7, 2004), the use of underground river. Water brought to the surface using solar power or diesel power. Then accommodated in the main reservoir. Then divided according to the needs of some of the secondary reservoir close to the people directly. 95 3. RESEARCH METHOD The study was conducted in the Southern part of the Gunung Kidul regency are both running water from two infrastructure WPS Baron and WPS Ngobaran (Paliyan District, Panggang District, Saptosari District, Tanjungsari District). The action research began with a study of the infrastructure development plan outlines water pumping system as an entry point for community empowerment model analysis. After that, then be assessed by the performance of the project if it‟s able to get a good public accessibility. A focus on livelihoods offers a useful perspective on tourism for enhancing local benefits, for example, maximising potential benefits for the poor. It also provides a set of tools that go beyond the narrow assessment of local benefits focussing only on job creation and cash income. Tourisms‟ contribution to livelihoods can be enhanced by adjusting decisions on what is developed and how, in ways that reflect people‟s livelihood priorities. 4. RESULT AND DISCUSSION WPS Baron and Ngobaran are under the management of PDAM Gunung Kidul regency. In the context of institutional arrangements are always required reasoning or rationalization in relation to the provision of clean water for the community Ngobaran Baron and regulations contained in the enterprises, whether in relation to classes of customers, each tariffs m3, or other regulations. But actually when compared with conditions in some areas the coverage area of PDAM Gunung Kidul Regency, their economic conditions are still under public Wonosari or other urban areas. Therefore, the condition of Baron and Ngobaran WPS total expenditures have more than the total revenue of the customer. Based on interviews with the Head of Unit PDAM Baron, noted that the costs charged to the public installation to be especially high in the amount of Rp. 1.500.000, - so that the poor cannot pay the fee. The reason why the cost is pegged to follow the installation costs of PDAM Tirta Handayani Gunung Kidul Regency. The fee includes the cost of procurement of pipes and water meter. If people feel the weight they could pay the fee together with other people thus the burden of financing can be lighter. In accordance with article www.ampl.or.id mention that the Director General of Human Settlements Department of Public Works Budi Yowono already tried that the banks could disburse loans. Although only hundreds of thousands rupiah, the cost of installing the installation can be burdensome to some residents. If that bias is realized it will increasingly make public benefit because of high installation costs can be repaid earlier. In addition, the system is built to distribute water piping network standard, but not matched by the number and density of people living in areas of high, medium and lower, so the cost becomes relatively large. In 2009, Baron and Ngobaran WPS actually can flow through 19,000 SR but only 7,400 SR can be installed. This is because the budget costs that must be borne by the installation of PDAM is not enough when used to supplement pipeline. Especially pipes are sized from medium-sized to large-sized. In addition, with the contour of the area are hilly, so that if additional reservoirs and generators are built will not be optimal 96 because the population density is sparse, thus requiring a long pipeline. Currently in addition household connection PDAM, people can rely on local government funds and the surplus from other UPT, which are in the scope of PDAM Tirta Handayani in Gunung Kidul. The conditions that are not optimal is also demonstrated by the equity aspect or aspects of justice, first because of the extent of the water is not evenly distributed, especially in high level areas caused by the rise of water pumping capabilities are limited. Then the financing issue, subscription costs are relatively high (Rp3500 / 10m2) where the poor do not get special treatment so that poor people cannot afford to subscribe or pay the fee. According to Mr. Wasno, chief of RT 01, Rejosari Kemadang village, said that they rely on the generosity of neighbors who are more capable to subscribe WPS water or some still rely on rainwater. Although in the RT (about 20+ heads of household) that were categorized as less capable are no more than 3-4 families. So the real condition of this WPS system still leaves the problem of injustice, or it can be said that this program is less pro poor groups. WPS project, both in Baron and Ngobaran is very useful by all parties. Indicated growth of this project towards a positive direction. In the past, although most of the time used to work, but most of the time was also used to search for water. Now they have more time which can be used for work or add other types of work to increase the income and improve the welfare of society. South Beach area of Gunung Kidul is mostly farmers but along with the increased availability of water is also kind of jobs are available, for example, be a breeder. In addition it also grows peyek craftsmen and shells craftsmen, as well as other work related directly and indirectly to the beach attractions as tourist attraction. This shifting or leaping has been greatly influenced by the transformation of both the economically and socially as one of the impacts of the construction of the Baron and Ngobaran Water Pumping System, Gunung Kidul, Yogyakarta. Transformation is commonly supposed to be natural, that is, from an agricultural economic structure of the economy through manufacturing, and then to a service economy (Schultz, 1976 and Joyohadikusumo, S. 1994) by a transformation as it happens direct from the agricultural sector to services can result in social problem. Social problem or inequality that arises is the inability of people entering the labor market in the formal and professional tourism. For example: there were 3000 women who originally activities everyday looking for water, with the construction of the WPS and resulted in the availability of water, then they switch their activities to non-formal activities provide processed foods fried (such as, jingking, small shrimp, seaweed) and craftsmen of shells. For the reason that they do not have the education and professional skills for entering the labor market of tourism. Poverty analyses have shown that people‟s ability to escape from poverty is critically dependent on their access to assets (Booth et al., 1998). Assets or capital endowments such as: physical capital; financial assets; natural capital; social capital, and human capital. Both quality and quantity of assets matter, along with the options to convert assets into productive activities. They sell the product not just to Baron/Ngobaran beach, but also to other destination such as: beach of Parang Tritis and Depok, Bantul regency, Yogyakarta. 97 Livelihood activities: what people do? Poor people usually pursue a diverse portfolio of activities, including on-farm activities, off-farm activities and migration. Baron and Ngobaran Society mostly have agrarian backgrounds (95%). Additional jobs outside the agricultural sector is sometimes considered a part-time job (moon-light) for increasing the household income. They have to adapt to the situation for answering the challenge of social and economic change. Outcomes: components of improved livelihoods or well-being such as, good health, more income, reduced vulnerability, empowerment, food security, and more sustainable use of the natural resource base. Actually, there are three outcomes: short-term, medium-term and long-term outcome. These are what people are trying to achieve through their activities. Institutions, organizations and policies that affect the assets and opportunities that are available, and their productivity such as government policy, formal organizations (farmers‟, groups, local authority) and informal institutions, which include societal rules and norms (market networks, billing systems, discrimination) and access to markets. - Business Owned by Local Government: PDAM - Neighbourhood (formal) & local authority - Groups (informal) - Discrimination price (household, mosque, school, business) 5. CONCLUSION The impact of this WPS development, is the people get water at a low price and get to the house. Respond to the existence of the community is very supportive of this project. Community adaptation in the face of price SR connection is realized by collaboration. One SR is used for 2 houses. A sense of belonging is realized by means of "gotong royong" to help PDAM. It can be concluded that the construction of WPS on Baron beach has a significant influence on the development of public revenue, which is triggered by the development of tourism in the region and Ngobaran, Baron. For the Baron region, with the clean water supply that never runs out makes entrepreneurs, restaurant, stalls, toilets and other existing businesses become more comfortable and there are significant increase in revenue. Furthermore, community and tourists more comfortable being on the beach Baron because they can clean themselves after playing on the beach and have a sense of security to the availability of clean freshwater. Opportunities of this SPAM is, that the people in the district of Gunung Kidul, especially Baron and Ngobaran can be separated from the drought that hit several regions each year. With the availability of water all the time, economic growth can be maximized. 6. REFERENCES Denzin, NK. 1978. The Research Act: A Theoretical Introduction in Sociological Methods. McGraw-Hills. New York. 98 Gunung Kidul Regency in Figures, 2012 - 2013 Indonesian republican government regulations No. 16 of 2005 the development of water supply systems Kamulyan, B. 2003. Diktat Bahan Kuliah Kebutuhan Air, Program MPSA Jurusan Teknik Sipil Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta Lumintang, Onnie M, 1996, Dampak Industri Pariwisata terhadap Kehidupan Sosial Ekonomi Masyarakat Kabupaten Daerah Tingkat II Jayapura (1962- 1994), Tesis, Universitas Indonesia Jakarta Miles, MB dan AM Huberman. Qualitative Data Analysis: A Sourcebook of New Methods. SAGE. Beverly Hills. Moleong, LJ. 1989. Metodologi Penelitian Kualitatif. Remaja Rosdakarya. Bandung. Patton, MQ. 1990. Qualitative Evaluation Methods. SAGE. Beverly Hills. Prasetya, A.R. 2000. Kursus Singkat Sistem Sumber Daya Air dalam Otonomi Daerah, Buku 2, Fakultas Teknik Sipil, UGM, Yogyakarta RPJMD Kabupaten Gunung Kidul 2010 - 2015 16 Sechan, E. 1977. Fundamentals of Hydrology. Geographic Published. Institude des Kijksuriversal, Ultreech. Sitorus, MTF. 1998. Penelitian Kualitatif: Suatu Perkenalan. Dokis. Bogor. Strauss, Anselm; Corbin Julie.1990. Basic of Qualitative Research, Techniques and procedures for Developing Grounded Theory. Sage Publications. International Soemarwoto, Otto. 1991. Indonesia dalam kancah isu lingkungan global. Gramedia Pustaka Utama, Jakarta Taylor, SJ dan R Bogdan. 1984. Introduction to Qualitative Research Methods: The Searchfor Meanings, Second Edition. John Wiley and Sons. Toronto. Triyatna. 1999. Kajian Pembangunan Air Bersih Kotamadya Daerah Tingkat II Surakarta. Tesis. Program MPKD Jurusan Arsitektur Fakultas Teknik UGM, Yogyakarta 99 Effect of Approaches for Changes of Citizen Attitude Towards Solid Waste Landfill and Incinerators B. Rahardyan*, and T. Matsuto** *Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering Institut Teknologi Bandung **Graduate Schoool of Engineering, Hokkaido University ABSTRACT : Citizens oppositions occurs in many cities and sometimes inhibits Solid Waste Management. Understanding citizens‘ motivation about positive aspect of SWM facility is needed. Personal and group motive should be explored. Survey to citizen of Kushiro City and Muroran City has been carried out. Questions about satisfaction of information disclosure were asked. Some respondents were surveyed before and after facility tour. Before visiting an incinerator or landfill, questionnaire sheet was handed to every participant, and asked about concern and attitude The same questions were asked just after the tour again. Findings about satisfaction about information disclosure emphasized the importance of transparency in increasing acceptability of SWM facility. Transparency especially in the early process of planning is important for increasing acceptability of SWM facility. Delay of information disclosure can increase opposition towards facilities. Giving experience to citizen could reduce concerns and attitudes. Provision stimulus which favors citizens may lead an attitude changes to be favored. Therefore provision service or benefit of facility which the same as expected by citizen will give better effect in increasing acceptability of facility. Keywords : attitude, iformation disclosure, visiting facility, improvement 1. INTRODUCTION Attitudes can be formed by many situations in life, and they are constantly evolving to accommodate new information. Attitudes change when a person receives information from others. This is known as cognitive change. The attitude is formed also through direct experience with the attitude object-known as affective change (Traindis, 1971). In the previous chapters, concerns and image were related to attitude to SWMF. Although people with strong opposing attitude showed different results, or unclear relations, good correlation were found between concerns/image and attitude. Therefore some activity to improve concerns/image is expected to have positive effect to reduce opposition. It can be done by risk communication with appropriate information or data on SWMF. Brief explanation of SWMF with colored photos had no or little effect on concerns as well as attitude. Documented form of information will be effective only when they are used additionally in public meeting. From citizens‟ point of view, information should be disclosed clearly in understandable way at an early stage of facility planning (Ishizaka, 2003). Citizen was found aware of uncertainties and potential bias of information provided (Trimble, 1988). Improvement of public relation is suggested to overcome public reaction in siting waste management facilities (Petts, 1992). Provision balance information can lead to more deliberative responses (McComas, 1999). Some citizens were found have willingness to spend extra time to read information and may use it when they are forming their opinions on difficult issues such as waste management (McComas, 1999). 100 If people received unbiased information, the attitude may change from NIMBY to an attitude of “we need waste management facilities in this country” (Trimble, 1988). Providing citizen with relevant information in a preferred way is suggested can improve risk communication in lowering level of concern and change attitude (Groothuis, 1997). In the case of risk communication about space exploration, by public involvement, after receiving information public were more supportive to the discussed program (Arvai, 2003). Recipients of information were more certain of their opinions and generally more positive toward the waste management option (McComas, 1999). Experiential is one of the sources of information (Bush, 2001). Beside general information disclosure, invitation to visit SWM facility is expected can provide citizen real references about SWM facility. It could provide honest and clear communication which is needed for increasing acceptability of facility (Trimble, 1988). Empirical experience show that visiting facility was a good option for dealing with citizen concerns. In 1995 The Delaware County Solid Waste Authority created an open-door policy with residents, allowing them to see all reports and visit landfill facility at any time. As the result a lot of trust has been built up between SWM authority and residents. This result is correspond with experience of Pioneer Crossing Landfill which made open house for community in late 2000. In by opening the landfill facility they gave the people a firsthand opportunity to see the landfill and got most insightful comments. This activity supported they effort in gaining landfill expansion permit (Stahl, 2003). Evaluation to visitors of Sellafield‟s British Nuclear Fuel visitor centre proved that visiting facility could increase relevant knowledge (Lee, 1995). Visiting SWMF can be effective to know the facility with guidance given by operators. This is considered the most concentrated information. Understanding citizens‟ motivation about positive aspect of SWM facility is needed. Personal and group motive should be explored however this study only account individual motives and take the average for describing motive of the group. 2. METHOD Following a research about citizens perceptions (Rahardyan, 2004) a survey were conducted to citizen of Kushiro City and Muroran City. Questions about satisfaction of information disclosure were asked. These questions consist of two parts: release time of information disclosure and the other is way of information disclosure. Other surveys were also carried out before and after facility tour. Before visiting an incinerator or landfill, questionnaire sheet was handed to every participant, and asked about concern and attitude The same questions were asked just after the tour again. 101 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS Information Disclosure and Satisfaction Importance of issues Weights of facility v.s. management aspect, and weights for information disclosure are shown in Table 1 Weights given by citizens were opposite between Kushiro and Muroran, i.e. citizen of Kushiro gave higher weight on facility aspect and timing of information disclosure. This is possibly because the questions were asked at the stage of planning in Kushiro. Without having actual facility operated, citizen are more concerned about pollution by the facility, and had little idea on the method of information disclosure. Table 1 Weight given by AHP comparison SWM Stakeholders Citizen Facility Management Siting Operation Muroran (69) 0.44 0.56 0.44 0.56 Kushiro (28) 0.55 0.45 0.65 0.35 Government Muroran (8) 0.57 0.43 0.45 0.55 Kushiro (13) 0.51 0.49 0.38 0.62 Expert (74) 0.46 0.54 0.46 0.54 Expert Satisfaction towards information disclosures Satisfaction rates concerning on information disclosure are shown in Figure 7-1. As for timing, the rates given by experts are the ones the author expected: satisfaction rate decrease as the timing of information release becomes late. However citizen are not satisfied even when “information was disclosed before siting”, and there are little difference between the three cases. This result shows the huge gap between “theory” and “reality.” The large difference in perception between local government and citizen will lead common difficulty in planning process of new facility. Similar difference between local government, experts, and citizens are found for method, and there are little difference among four options. 102 5.0 5.0 3.0 Rate of Concern 1.0 -1.0 -3.0 1.0 -1.0 -3.0 Government Muroran (9) Government Kushiro (15) Expert (96) Timing Ellectronic pollution indicator Leaflet/bulletin Just before construction After siting Before siting -5.0 Information desk University Student (43) -5.0 - Citizen Kushiro (52) University Student (43) Internet homepage Rate of Concern 3.0 Citizen Muroran (114) Citizen Muroran (114) Citizen Kushiro (52) Government Muroran (9) Government Kushiro (15) Expert (96) Method Rate of satisfaction: Strongly satisfied (5), Satisfied (3), Slightly satisfied (1), Slightly unsatisfied (-1), Unsatisfied (-3), Strongly unsatisfied (-5) Figure 1 Satisfaction towards information disclosures Correlation with attitudes towards SWM facilities Satisfaction rates are compared by the attitude to SWMF. Opposed citizen was defined as peoples who are strongly opposed or absolutely opposed in 5 scales. As shown in Figure 2, their satisfaction are much lower than the other group. Figure 3 presents another view of correlation between satisfaction and attitude for timing. -1.0 -3.0 Electronic pollution indicator Information desk Internet homepage After siting Before siting Regular paper based information Ordinary (Incinerator) n = 110 Opposed Incinerator n = 48 -5.0 Just before construction Satisfaction rate 1.0 Rate of satisfaction : (5) Strongly satisfied , (3) Satisfied, (1) Slightly satisfied, (-1) Slightly unsatisfied, (-3) Unsatisfied , (-5) Strongly unsatisfied Figure 2 Satisfaction of information disclosure from different attitudes citizens (Muroran and Kushiro) 103 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 1.5 2.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 Before siting After siting Satisfied Just before constrution Slight satisfied n = 158 Strongly unsatisfied 0.5 Unsatisfied 0.5 Slightly unsatified 1.0 Slightly satisfied 1.0 n =158 a) Incinerator Strongly unsatisfied 2.0 2.5 Unsatisfied 2.5 Slight unsatified Attitude value 4.0 Satisfied Attitude value 4.0 b) Landfill Attitude value : 0 = accept, 1 = slight oppose, 2 = oppose, 3 strongly oppose, 4 = absolutely oppose Figure 3 Satisfaction toward management of information disclosure and attitudes to SWM facilities of citizen Efect of Visiting SWM Facility Change of concern level In Figure 4, average rate of concerns, before and after SWMF tour, are plotted for each group. Concern rate for every item was decreased by visiting facility. Interestingly, despite of different level of concerns among groups before the tour, they tend to be “slightly concerned” level after visited the facility, and the same levels were attained both for incinerator and landfill. Only exception is the group of university students, i.e. concern levels are higher than citizen even after the tour. This is probably due to higher level of knowledge about problems related to solid waste management. Nishi (25)before Nishi (25)after Higashi (39)-before Higashi (39)-after University (43)-before University (43)-after Fukuoka (86)-before Fukuoka (86)-after Rate of concern 3 2 1 0 Pollution Dioxin Odor Concern Items Pest a) Incinerator View Dest. 4 Universitybefore (43) 3 Rate of concern 4 Fukuokabefore (84) 2 Universityafter (43) 1 Fukuokaafter (84) 0 Pollution Dioxin n = 193 Odor Pest Concern items View Dest. n = 127 b) Landfill 104 Concern rate: Not concern at all (0), Slightly concerned (1), Concerned (2), Strongly concerned (3), Absolutely concerned (4). Figure 4 Rate of concern before and after visiting incinerator and landfill To present more details of the effect of visiting facility, Figure 5 shows the shift of concern level distribution for. In Figure 6, the change of concern levels are shown in pentagon diagram, in which the area is diminished as concern levels are reduced. Remarkable shrink of the pentagon are shown in all the region surveyed. 60% 60% Before After Dioxin 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% Pest 10% 10% View Dest. Pollution Odor 0% 0% Not concerned at all Concerned Degree of concern Absolutely concerned Not Concerned Absolutely concerned concerned at all Degree of concern Figure 5 Distribution of concern about SWM facility before and after visiting facilities landfill (Fukuoka, n = 84) 105 Higashi (n=39) Nishi (n=25) Pollution 4 Pollution 4 3 3 2 2 View Dest. Dioxin 1 View Dest. Dioxin 1 0 0 Pest Pest Odor Odor Fukuoka-Inc (n=86) Pollution Before 4 University-Inc Pollution (n=43) Before 4 Afer 3 3 2 View Dest. Afer 2 Dioxin 1 View Dest. Dioxin 1 0 0 Pest Odor Before Pest Odor Before Afer Afer Figure 6a Difference rate of concern about before and after visiting incinerator Fukuoka-LF (n=84) University-LF (n=83) Pollution 4 3 3 2 2 View Dest. Dioxin 1 View Dest. 0 Odor Before Dioxin 1 0 Pest Pollution 4 Afer Pest Odor Before Afer Figure 6b Difference rate of concern before and after visiting landfill Concern rate: Not concern at all (0), Slightly concerned (1), Concerned (2), Strongly concerned (3), Absolutely concerned (4). 106 Change of attitude Opposition to SWMF was also decreased by visiting facility as shown in Figure 7a, although the decrease was not so remarkable because opposition was not so strong even before the tour. An example of distribution shift was given in Figure 7b. 3 80% Before Attitude value 2.5 Before After After 2 60% 1.5 40% 1 0.5 20% 0 Higashi (39) Nishi (25) Fukuoka (86) Fukoka (84) a) Attitude value Absolutely opposed Strongly Opposed Opposed 0 = accept, 1 = slightly opposed, 2 = opposed, 3 strongly opposed, 4 = absolutely opposed Slightly Opposed Landfill Accepted 0% Incinerator Attitude (n b) Distribution before and after visiting landfill (Fukuoka (n = 84)) Figure 7 Attitude of citizen before and after visiting facility In order to know how individual attitude was changed, attitude before and after visiting facility are tabulated in Table 2, in which digits in each cell shows the number of person. Shaded cell indicated that attitude was not changed. If people‟s attitude was improved by the tour, he/she was counted in cells above shades, and counted in lower cell if attitude was worsen. In Fukuoka, the ratio of strong oppose was higher than in Sapporo, but not a few people jumped up two or three level. As a result, attitudes were converged to almost the same level regardless of initial attitude (see Figure 7. Relation with attribute Respondents were grouped by age and gender, and the change of attitude were examined in Figure 8. Both age and gender were identified as influential factor among personal attributes, in which younger people and female showed higher concern. As seen in Figure 8, such tendency were preserved even after visiting facility, and the difference between before and after the tour are almost constant regardless with gender and age. 107 Table 2 Distribution of attitude change before and after visiting SWM Facilities (Higashi, Nishi and Fukuoka) Before visiting facility slightly Opposed Strongly opposed opposed 1 11 1 4 Nishi (n = 23) Higashi (n=39) Accepted slightly opposed Opposed Strongly opposed Absolutely opposed 19 Accepted slightly opposed Opposed Strongly opposed Absolutely opposed 14 Fukuoka-Inc (n = 83) Accepted slightly opposed Opposed Strongly opposed Absolutely opposed 23 Fukuoka-LF (n = 79) Accepted slightly opposed Opposed Strongly opposed Absolutely opposed 18 4 22 8 60-70s(46)before 2 20-30s (6)-after 40-50s (31)-after 1 60-70s(46)-after Dioxin View Dest. Pest Odor Dioxin Pollution 40-50s (31)before 3 0 a) Age Concerned items Concerned items 4 4 Male (37)-before 2 Male (37)-after 1 Degree of concern 3 Female (110)before Female (110)after 3 Female (72)before 2 Male (10)-after 1 Female (72)after Pest View Dest. b) Gender Odor 0 Dioxin View Dest. Pest Odor Dioxin Pollution 0 Concerned items Male (10)-before Landfill Pollution Incinerator Degree of concern 1 4 1 20-30s (6)before Landfill 60-70s (147)after 0 2 1 View Dest. 40-50s (54)-after 10 8 Pest 20-30s (6)-after 1 1 3 1 4 Degree of concern 60-70s (147)before 2 5 6 3 1 40-50s (54)before 3 1 1 19 18 3 20-30s (6)before Incinerator Degree of concern 4 3 Odor 4 Absolutely opposed 1 Pollution Incinerator Landfill After visiting facility Accepted Concerned items Concern rate : Not concern at all (0), Slightly concerned (1), Concerned (2), Strongly concerned (3, Absolutely concerned (4). (Higashi, Nishi, Fukuoka, n = 143) and Landfill (Fukuoka, n = 86) Figure 8 Concern changes of different personal attributes after visiting incinerator 108 Figure 9 Attitude changes of different personal attributes after visiting incinerator Example of attitude change degree is depicted in Figure 9. It is found that 9% of attitude were improved drastically while other 18% were significantly upgraded. Influence of previous experience of visiting SWMF Attitude was significantly improved by visiting SWMF. However, some people had already visited SWMF before. To examine the past experience, attitude before the tour were compared in Figure 10. It is found that citizen with experience in visiting facility are more in favor or having lower opposition degree. Concerns were compared in Figure 11, in which attitude after the tour were also plotted. Concern level were slightly lower by past experience, but the effect looks smaller than ones found in this research. It suggest that the effect of visiting SWMF will not last long, or will reduce with time. Once again, the level after the tour were not different by past experience. 60% 60% Visited (83) 50% 40% 40% See from outside (31) 30% 20% % % Visited (43) 50% See from outside (30) 30% 20% None (48) Absolutely opposed b) Landfill Strongly opposed Opposed Accepted a) Incinerator Absolutely opposed Strongly opposed Opposed 0% Slightly opposed 0% Accepted 10% Slightly opposed None (78) 10% Figure 7-9 Attitude distribution of citizen with different experience in visiting SWM facilities (Fukuoka, n = 162) 109 4 From outside (24)-before 3 None (39)-before 2 Visited (80)-after From outside (24)-after 1 Visited (27)before Landfill Degree of concern Degree of concern 4 Visited (80)before Incinerator Seen from outside (12)before None (39)-before 3 2 Visited-after 1 Seen from outside-after None (39)-after a) Incinerator (Higashi-Nishi-Fukuoka) Pest Odor Pollution View Dest. Concerned items None-after 0 Dioxin View Dest. Pest Odor Pollution Dioxin 0 Concerned items b) Landfill (Fukuoka) Concern rate : Not concern at all (1), Slightly concerned (2), Concerned (3), Strongly concerned (4), Absolutely concerned (5). Figure 10 Concern changes of different experience after visiting incinerator (Higashi, Nishi, Fukuoka, n = 143) and Landfill (Fukuoka, n = 86) 4. CONCLUSION Findings about satisfaction about information disclosure emphasized the importance of transparency in increasing acceptability of SWM facility. Transparency especially in the early process of planning is important for increasing acceptability of SWM facility. Delay of information disclosure can increase opposition towards facilities. While maintaining recent paper based information, improvement of communication method is important to reach the aim of information disclosure. Giving experience to citizen could reduce concerns and attitudes. The fact that concerns of people with experience decreased also means that repeated active persuasive communication could reduce concern and opposition. Provision stimulus which favors citizens may lead an attitude changes to be favored. Therefore provision service or benefit of facility which the same as expected by citizen will give better effect in increasing acceptability of facility. However dealing with other concerns is more important since provision benefit is perceived as not too important for absolutely oppose citizen. 110 5. REFERENCE Arvai, JL., 2003 Using risk communication to disclose the outcome of a participatory decision-making process: effects on the perceived acceptability of risk-policy decisions, Risk Analysis 23 (2) 281- 288 Bush, J., Moffact, S., Dunn, CE., 2001 Keeping the public informed? Public negotiation of air quality information, Public Understanding Science 10, 213-229 Groothuis, PA., Miller, G., 1997. The role of social distrust in risk-benefit analysis: a study of the siting of hazardous waste disposal facility, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 15 241257 Lee, T., Balchin, N., 1995. Learning and attitude change at British nuclear fuel's Sellafield Visitors Centre, J Environ Psychol 15 (4): 283-298 Ishizaka, K., Tanaka, M. Resolving public conflict in site selection process – a risk communication approach, Waste management 23 385-296 McComas, KA, Scherer, CW., 1999 Providing Balance Risk Information in Survey uses as citizen participation mechanisms, Society & Natural Resources 12 107-119 Petts, J., 1992. Incineration risk perceptions and public concerns: experience in the U.K. improving risk communication, Waste Management & Research 10 169-182 Rahardyan,B., T.Matsuto,Y.Kakuta and N. Tanaka (2004) "Resident's Concern and Atittudes Towards Solid Waste Management Facilities." Waste Management Journal Vol. 24. pp: 437-451) Triandis, HC., 1971. Attitude and Attitude Change, New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc142 Trimble, LC. 1988 What do citizens want in siting of waste management facilities?, Risk Analysis, 8 (3) 375-377 111 Influence Identification Of Economy And Demographic Factors To Waste Generation In West Java Indonesia Alin Adlina1 and Benno Rahardyan2 Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering,Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jalan Ganesha 10, 40132, Bandung, West Java, Indonesia 1 alin.adlina@gmail.com, 2benno@ftsl.itb.ac.id ABSTRACT : Society behaviors with their contemporary life style have large potential to augment the environmental loads particularly the waste generation and discard. The factors identification related to both loads can support the waste generation system planning. Based on the relationship of GDP values as well the waste generation at Sukabumi Regency, Cianjur Regency, Bandung City, and Bekasi City, shows the increase in GDP also increase the number of waste generation. Using cluster analysis and discriminant analysis, it shows that GDP variable, consumption expenditures, and total population give positive significant impact on the classification, the higher the variable the higher waste generation is. Result of discriminant analysis is able to explain the variances of 85.9% generation of cities/regencies in West Java. Cluster with high generation, has GDP of 32,999,000.00 million IDR on average, total population of 2,904,000 people, and consumption expenditure per capita of 4,535,468.00 IDR on average. While the cluster with low waste generation, has GDP 6,685,000.00 million IDR on average, with average total population of 1,421,000 people and its consumption expenditure per capita of 3,800,141.00 IDR. Keywords: waste generation, GDP, consumption expenditure 1. INTRODUCTION Developing countries have experienced the mobilization of mass population and high urbanization level in last 50 years. With or without industrialization, the development urbanization speed has reached 2 to 3 times faster than European countries (Kojima, 1996 : 349). The areas which experienced city‟s condition changes due to urbanization faced with three problems i.e. poverty, high population growth, and the complication related to the community life style. (Bai and Imura., 2000 on Yedia, 2003: 7) Several people mentioned the influential factors of it. Contreas (2008 on Jha, 2011 : 124) explained the city waste management system becomes a complex issue related to the changes of people life style, high urbanization rate, and also the authority role which has not given enough contribution. Sharholy (2007) elaborated that the raise of population, fast economic growth and people‟s life style improvement will affect management of the waste to be handled. Khajuria (2010: 654) mentioned that the urbanization development rate and fast industrialization caused waste generation in the developing countries. With the speedy economic growth as well the life style, waste composition also estimated to be modified. Meanwhile, looking to the reality in the developing countries, the waste collected without categorizing and also processing facilities are limited in number, all these lead to predicaments in the future. Burnley (2001, on Weng 2009: 1) stated the consumer behavior 112 comes from the contemporer life style has huge potential to aggravate environmental load particularly the generation and waste discard. Weng (2009:3) remarked according various studies knowing that the community life style has association with the interrupted contemporary consumption pattern, which is set as one significant factor which affect the environmental waste. By making a socio-economy model system to manage the waste integrally and wholly, generation of waste can be estimated according to the population economic growth and the applied policy intervention. This can become the foundation of capacity planning from waste management facility system, comprising the regulation ruling and the consumption pattern plan. Faramita (2007) attempted to find that the domestic waste generation in Bandung is 10 times greater than the waste generation value calculated from the GDP. Weng (2009) modelledan integrated or holistic quantitative methodology for quantifying the consumer‟s behavior and analyzing its impacts on MSW management system. Used equations as follow: a. Consumption forecasting model Absolute Income Hypothesis, proposed by Keynes (1936), assumes the individual‟s consumption level is only influenced by his/her current income level. Past consumption pattern would not affect the current consumption behavior. Thus the relationship can be formulated as: Absolute Income Hypothesis: .......................................(Equation1) where α denotes the autonomous income, and α>0; β designates the marginal propensity to consume (MPC), and 0< β <1; εt is the error term. (Weng, 2009) b. MSW Discard Model .....................................................................................(Equation4) where is the set of the amount of MSW fractions, Θ, in year t; denotes the vector of consumption variables comprising an individual‟s consumption expenditure on a specific category or subcategory c in year t; designates the vector of policy variables including dummy or continuous variables; ω is the corresponding waste conversion function. 2. MATERIALS AND METHODS This study was conducted in West Java Province. It is located in the western part of the island of Java and its capital and largest urban center is Bandung. This province consists different type of regencies and cities. More industries are located in northern part of the province and in Bandung areas while more agriculture activities in southern and eastern area of Bandung. After literature review some secondary data i.e. environmental , economic and demographic data were collected from Statistic Agency (Table 1). The province‟s population is 46.3 113 million (in 2014) and it is the most populous and most densely populated of Indonesia‟s provinces. Table 1.Data Type and Source Num 1 2 Data Type Environmental Data: Waste Generation Volume of Transferred solid waste per day Serviced level Solid waste facility data Source National Statistic Bureau, Environmental Statistic, Bandung in Figure and other cities/ regencies annual report, Jawa Barat in Figure Economic data: National Statistic Bureau, West Java Social Economy Data, Indonesia Average consumption expenditure Expenditure for Consumption, per capita Regional Gross Domestic Product, Household expenditure based on Bandung in Figure and other cities/ comodity regencies annual report, Jawa Barat in Regional Gross Domestic Product Figure based on constant price Economic growth rate Gini Ratio 3 Demography data: Population, household number, population density, growth rate, population below 15 years old, population over 65 years old, proporsion of woman in workfare, unemployment rate National Statistic Bureau, West Java Social Economy Data, West Java Demography Profile, West Java Regional Profile, Workfare condition in Indonesia, The data processed using statistic software SPSS PASW Statistic 18. Statistic methods that can be applied for data processing are scatterplot, Box-Plot, Normality Test, Hyphotesis Analysis ( t test orWilcoxon test), Corelation Analysis (Pearson t orSpearman Rank Test), Regression Analysis, Discriminant Analysis, and Cluster analysis. Economical approach using Klassen Typology Analysis. 114 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION The Potentials survey conducted in West Java, has included different aspects including the public complaints with regard the environmental disturbances such as air pollution, water pollution and soil pollution. It is shown in Figure. 1, that number of environmental disturbances reports as land pollution has declined by 22% since 2005. As for the water and air pollution has decreased by 12% and 6% respectively. Water pollution Land pollution Figure 1 Percentages of Region/Village Affected and Complained about Pollution in West Java Garbage bin to be collected Self land filling River Dranage Figure 2. Type of Waste Discard Methodin West Java Figure 2 shows types of water discard in West Java, based on the data; waste open burning is still high and has not decreased during the survey periods. The waste discard with collection method is lower from 2004 to 2007, meanwhile from 2007 to 2009 is constant. Open burning of waste might trigger another environmental problems such as air pollution, with society‟s tendency to do open burning and the low usage of waste collection system indicating the need of management system improvement. Figure 3 shows that overall the trend of per capita income in some major regencies (Kabupaten) at west Java shows a positive trend towards the generation of waste. It is shown by the positive slope curve. Bekasi Regency, Bogor Regency, and Bandung City had the highest per capita income among other regencies in West Java. Even so the generation of waste is relatively constant from year to year. 115 (a) GDP (constant price) (b) Consumption Expenditure Figure 3. Time Series of Economic Variable Development during 2001-2009 116 Figure 4. Relationship of GDP and Waste Generation in 5 Cities/Regencies in West Java Waste generation On Figure 4 the relationship between GDP and waste generation atSukabumi Regency, Cianjur Regency, Cirebon City, and Bekasi Cityat west Java haspositive trend, where increment of GDP is linear with increment of waste generation. Figure 5The waste generation cluster in West Java Based on the waste data in 25 cities/Regency on 2007 at West Java, then the cities and regencies are classified into two groups which is shown in Figure 5. Cluster classification based on generation of cities and regencies in West Java, classified as follows: 1. Cluster 1 comprise of: Bogor Regency, Bekasi Regency, Bandung City. 117 2. Cluster 2 comprise of: Bogor Regency, Sukabumi Regency, Cianjur Regency, Garut Regency, Tasik Regency, Ciamis Regency, Sumedang Regency, Indramayu Regency, Subang Regency, Purwakarta Regency, Karawang Regency, Kuningan Regency, Cirebon Regency, Majalengka Regency, Bogor City, Sukabumi City, Cirebon City, Bekasi City, Depok City,Cimahi City,Tasik City, and Banjar City. To understand the differences between first and second cluster, discriminant analysis conducted towards the expenditure GDP excluding oil and gas variable based on constant price, unemployment rate,gini ratio, population ratio of elder age of 65 years oldand higher, population density, total population, and average education duration level. The analysis result using canonic function i.e. 0.927 showing that there is a high correlation, with determinant coefficient as much 0.859. It can be said, than the ninth variable able to explain the variances of 85.9% generation of cities/regencies in West Java. While the 14.1% explained by residual or other variable out of the model. Based on output structure matrix, GDP variable, expenditure and total population give significant positive influence towards the waste generation value. This tendecy is similar with condition at Moratuwa City, Srilanka where income increased the organic and paper waste generation also increased (Bandara, 2007:38). To predict a city or regency to be classified into any group mentioned, we can use the following discriminant model : ..... (Equation 3) Using Equation 3 discriminant score is computed which can classifying city or regency into cluster on generation of waste, with the critical cutting score i.e. 0 according to centroid value -–0,875 dan 6,414 The result of the classification is 100% actual. Cluster 1 with higher generation, has average GDP per capita of 32,999,000 million IDR, average expenditure for consumption from the total population reached 13,171,000 IDR per annum and the total population in 1st cluster in average reached 2,904,000 people in other word the consumption expenditure per capita from the total population is 4,535,468.00 IDR. While cluster 2 with lower generation, has GDP of 6,685,000 million IDR, its consumption expenditure from the total population reached 5,400,000 IDR per annum and the total population of2nd cluster is 1,421,000 people or the consumption expenditure per capita in average equals to 3,800,141.00 IDR. Figure 6 and Table 2 show classification based on the consumption expendituregeneration quadrant, 25 cities and regencies in West Java. 118 Waste Generation II I IV III Consumption Expenditure Figure 6. Quadrant Classification of Relationship between Consumption Expenditure and Waste Generation in Cities/ Regencies in West Java Table 2.Quadrant Classification of Relationship between Consumption Expenditure and Waste Generation in Cities/ Regencies in West Java Quadrant Cities/ Regencies I Bandung City, Bandung Regency, Bekasi Regency, Cirebon Regency, dan Bekasi City II Bogor City III Cimahi City, Majalengka Regency, Kuningan Regency, Cirebon City, Sukabumi City, Banjar City, Tasikmalaya City, Purwakarta Regency, Sumedang Regency, Subang Regency, Ciamis Regency, Tasikmalaya Regency, Cianjur Regency, Indramayu Regency, and Sukabumi Regency IV Garut Regency, Karawang Regency, Depok City, andBogor Regency Based on the above classification, Quadrant I comprise of cities and regencies which have high consumption expenditure of 11,158,000 IDR/annum on average and high waste generation of 1,433,000 m3/annum (5 cities/regencies).Quadrant II comprise of cities/regencies which have low expenditure consumption i.e. 3,416,000 IDR /annumon average but have high waste generation of 764,310 m3/annum (1 city/regency). Quadrant III is those cities/regencies which have low expenditure consumption 3,876,000 IDR on average and low waste generation 198,900 m3/annum (15 cities/regencies). Quadrant IV is 119 Economic Growth Rate cities/regencieswhich have high expenditure consumption of 6,332,000 IDR on averagebut low waste generation 469,773 m3/annum (4 cities/regencies)on average. B A C D GDP Figure 7. Economic GrowthPattern and Structurein Cities/ Regencies in West Java Subsequently, by using Klassen Typology analysis, the pattern pictures and area economic growth structure can be known by finding relation between the GDP and the economic growth from each cities compared to its referred areas. Klassen Typology analysis for cities/regencies at West Java shown by Figure 7 and Table 3 Table 3.Economic GrowthPattern and Structurein Cities/ Regencies in West Java Pattern Cities/Regencies A Bandung City B Depok City C Bekasi City, Sukabumi City, Bandung Regency, Bogor City, Tasikmalaya City, Indramayu Regency, Ciamis Regency, Banjar City, Cirebon Regency, Subang Regency, Garut Regency, Sumedang Regency, Sukabumi Regency, Majalengka Regency, Cianjur Regency, Kuningan Regency, and Tasikmalaya Regency. D Bogor Regency, Karawang Regency, Cimahi City, Cirebon City, Purwakarta Regency, dan Bekasi Regency 120 Klassen Typology Analysis classified region into 4 economic growth patterns, developed and growing region (A), growing region (B), low economy region (C), and developed but supressed region (D). Comparing result of Quadrant Classification and Klassen Typology shown that some of cities/ regencies that included as developed and growing region (A) also developed but suppressed region (D) included into Quadrant that has high waste generation. Meanwhile some cities/regencies that included as low economy region are on Quadrant that has low waste generation. 4. CONCLUSION The increase in GDP also increase the number of waste generation. Using cluster analysis and discriminant analysis, it shows that GDP variable, consumption expenditures, and total population give positive significant impact on the classification, the higher the variable the higher waste generation is. Result of discriminant analysis is able to explain the variances of 85.9% generation of cities/regencies in West Java. Cluster with high generation, has GDP of 32,999,000.00 million IDR on average, total population of 2,904,000 people, and consumption expenditure per capita of 4,535,468.00 IDR on average. While the cluster with low waste generation, has GDP 6,685,000.00 million IDR on average, with average total population of 1,421,000 people and its consumption expenditure per capita of 3,800,141.00 IDR. 5. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This research was funded by ITB Research Grant 2014. 6. REFERENCES Bai, X danImura H. 2000.A Comparative Study of Urban Environment in East Asia: Stage Model of Urban Environmenal Evolution. Journal of International Review for Environmental Strategies: 1 pp 135-158 (2000) Bandara, J. G. J. Nilanti. 2007. Relation of Waste Generation and Composition to Socioeconomic Factors: A Case Study. Journal of Environmental Monitoring Assesment 135 pp 31-39 (2007) Faramita, Nadia. 2007. Evaluasi Aliran Material Sampah Daur Ulang (Plastik, Kertas, Logam) Bandung City. Bandung: Laporan Tugas Akhir, Program Studi Teknik Lingkungan, ITB. Jha, A.K., S.K. Singh, G.P. Singh, Prabhat K. Gupta. 2011. Sustainable Municipal Solid Waste Management in Low Income Group of Cities: A Review. Journal of International Society for Tropical Ecology: 52(1) pp 123-131 (2011) Khajuria A, Yamamoto Y, and Tohru Morioka. 2010. Estimation of Municipal Solid Waste Generation and Landfill Area in Asian Developing Countries. Journal of Environmental Biology, 31(5) pp 649-654 (2010). 121 Kojima R. 1996. Introduction: Population Migration and Urbanization in Developing Countries. Journal of The Developing Economies: 34(4) pp 349-369 (1996) Khatib, Imad. 2011. Municipal Solid Waste Management in Developing Countries: Future Challanges and Possible Opportunities. Croatia: Intech Europe. Sharholy M, Ahmad K, Vaishya RC, and RD Gupto. 2007. Municipal solid waste characteristics and management in Allahabad, India. Journal of Waste Management: 27(4) pp 490-496 (2007) Yedia, Sudhakar. 2003. Urban Environmental Evolution: The Case of Mumbai. Kanagawa: Institute for Global Environmental Strategy (IGES). Yu-Chi, Weng. 2009. Estimation and Evaluation of Municipal Solid Waste Management System by using Economic Environmental Models in Taiwan. Kyoto University: Dissertation Department of Urban and Environmental Engineering. 122 Evaluation Of Pakerisan Watershed Characteristics In Establishing Management Model With The Principle Of One River, One Plan, And One Management Principal On Water Resources Protection Deden Ismail 6, I Ketut Sumantra7, I. G Ayu Andani8, Nyoman Arya Wirawan9 Perencanaan Pembangunan Wilayah dan Pengelolaan Lingkungan (P2WL) Universitas Mahasaraswati Denpasar Jalan Soka No. 47 Denpasar, Bali ABSTRACT: Water resources management based on watersheds should be done through a spatial coherence with the principle of "one river, one plan, one management". The initial phase which can be carried out in water resource management is to determine the condition of water resources through monitoring activities. Regarded with planning and watershed management of Pakerisan Watershed in Bali which has been designated as a World Cultural Heritage, it is important to do a monitoring of contamination level in the watershed. This study aimed to determine the damage of Pakerisan Watershed using water quality as the main indicator. In this research, water quality examination sample taken from Pakerisan River in the upstream, midstream, and downstream, and then analyzed by using scoring method compare to Water Quality Standards according to Bali Governor Regulation No. 8 of 2007. Analysis result showed that the water quality from 2012 to 2014 and from upstream to downstream was getting worse in which the contamination was getting heavier. To protect the water resources of Pakerisan Watershed, the watershed management preferred direction with the involvement of communities in the watershed to participate in conservation activities; provision of facilities and infrastructure; as well as the implementation of incentives and disincentives. Keyword : Contamination Level, One River One Plan One Management Concept, Pakerisan Watershed, Water Resource, Water Quality 1. INTRODUCTION Watershed is an area of land that is collecting, storing and then drain rainwater into the sea or a lake through a major river. It is separated from other regions by topographical separator, thus it can be said the land area is divided into several watersheds (Indonesian Ministry of Forestry, 2013). The main elements in a watershed is the natural resources (soil, vegetation, and water) which is the target and the man who is the resource users. The main elements (natural and human resources) in the watershed forming an ecosystem in which the events that occur on an element will affect other elements (Asdak, 1995). This area is very vulnerable for having any natural resource damage. Watershed conditions in Bali mostly been impaired. The water flow level of the rainy season and the dry season is not balance. At rainy season, the flow will extremely increase and cause flood and soil erosion. While at the dry season, drought occurred. With the increasing population growth and 6 ddnismail18@gmail.com ketut.sumantra@yahoo.com 8 andani.gustiayu@gmail.com 9 aryawirawanbali@gmail.com 7 123 increased economic development, the allocation of water resources to fulfill the needs of a healthy human being and support economic growth tend to cause scarcity nowadays. In an effort to create sustainable water resources for the benefit of the people, watershed need to be managed in a comprehensive, integrated, and environmentally friendly manner. According to Law No. 7 of 2004 on Water Resources, water resources management is an effort to plan, act, monitor, and evaluate the protection of water resources, efficient use of water resources, and control the destructive force of water. The initial phase which can be carried out in water resource management is to know the condition of water resources through monitoring activities (Indonesia Ministry of Health, 1990). Water quality monitoring is also the implementation of the mandate of the Governor of Bali Province No. 8 of 2007 on Water Quality Standards and Wastewater. Regarded with planning and watershed management of Pakerisan Watershed in Bali which has been designated as a World Cultural Heritage, it is important to do a monitoring of damage or contamination level in the watershed of Pakerisan. This study aimed to determine the water quality of Pakerisan Watershed and formulate management direction of Pakerisan Watershed management based on community and in an integrated manner for water resource protection with the principle of one river, one plan, and one management. Literature Review Examination on water quality parameters, determined by scientific considerations that are expected to provide a causal reaction to the decline in water quality and the impact for human health. The main parameters used to test water quality are mainly water temperature, suspended solids, pH, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), coliform, and many chemical substances, such as iron (Fe), nitrite (NO2), nitrate (NO3), Cadmium (Cd), and metallic lead (Pb) (Effendi, 2003). 1. Temperature The temperature of water bodies is influenced by season, location latitude, altitude above sea level, time of day, air circulation, cloud cover, and the flow and depth of water. Temperature changes affect the process of physics, chemistry and biology. 2. Suspended solids Suspended solids are materials sized particles larger than 0.45 lm which are in the water column. Suspended solid particles are formed from sediment, organic matter (detritus composed), also phytoplankton cells and other living microorganisms. 3. pH the pH of a solution expressed hydrogen ion concentration in the solution. The more acidic the solution, and conversely the lower the pH. The more alkaline, the pH is higher. Waters that have a low pH will be able to increase the toxicity of some compounds of certain gases such as ammonia water. 4. DO 124 The level of dissolved oxygen in the water environment is a very important factor in the quality of water. Dissolved oxygen in the water is sourced from the diffusion of atmospheric oxygen and water results in the plant photosynthesis. Levels of dissolved oxygen in water varies affected water temperature, altitude and water turbulence level. 5. BOD Biochemical oxygen dissolved is the amount of oxygen needed by micro-organisms to decompose organic materials are easily decomposed. Organic materials are easily decomposed generally derived from domestic waste, while difficult to unravel generally derived from agricultural waste, mining and industry. 6. COD Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) or the oxygen demand for chemical reactions, ie the amount of oxygen needed to perform chemical reactions. COD in general is one of the organic parameters set beside BOD and TOC (Total Organic Carbon) or the total amount of organic carbon. 7. Coliform Presence of E. coli in water abundantly illustrates that the waters polluted by human waste, which may also be accompanied by contamination of pathogenic bacteria. Meanwhile, total coliform bacteria include all types of aerobic bacteria, facultative anaerobic, rod shape and bacteria that can ferment lactose and produce gas 2. MATERIALS AND METHODS This research was conducted in the Pakerisan Watershed. Pakerisan Watershed is across Gianyar and Bangli Regency. The river has a length of 36.5 km and the area of 29.875 km2. The most upstream part of the river is located in Panelokan, Central Batur Village of Bangli District, while its estuary is on the border between Lebih Village of Gianyar District and Medahan Village of Blahbatuh District. The selection of study site is based on the consideration that the Pakerisan watershed landscape has been declared as World Cultural Heritage by UNESCO on 2012. 125 Fig. 1 Declaration of Subak Pulagan in Pakerisan Watershed as World Heritage In this research, water sample taken from Pakerisan Watershed in the upstream, midstream, and downstream. The sampling points are: Upstream area: located in Manukaya Village, Sukawati District, Gianyar. Land use around the sampling site was dry land and shrubs. Midstream area: located in Balega Village, Blahbatuh District, Gianyar. Land use around the sampling site are rice field. Downstream area: located in Medahan Village, Blahbatuh District, Gianyar. Land use around the sampling locations are rice field and low density population settlements. 126 Manukaya Village , Tampaksiring, Gianyar Balega Village , Blahbatuh, Gianyar Medahan Village , Blahbatuh, Gianyar Fig. 2 Sampling Points Water quality examination is done in two ways, namely the local examination (in-site) and laboratory examination. On water quality monitoring activities, some portable equipment should be provided in the field to conduct in-site examination. In-site examination of some parameters can be performed directly in the body of water and do not take any sample. Water quality parameters that are carried out by local examination include pH and dissolved oxygen (DO). Temperature and turbidity also can be measured directly in the field. Laboratory examination is the examination of water sample taken from the river which then conducted in the laboratory regarding limited tools or equipment available in the field. Examination of other parameters, such as chemistry and microbiology aspect must be done in the laboratory. Types of water samples in water quality monitoring using instantaneous sample type (grab sample), the sample were taken directly from the body of water. Water sampling in shallow river does not require special any sampling tool. In this condition the sample container can simultaneously serve to take a sample directly. As for taking samples of lake water and sea water in the water, sampling using the Van Dorn water sampler. This sample only describe the characteristics of the water at the time of sampling. Sampling was conducted three times in three years sequence, in March 2012, March 2013, and July 2014. Each water quality parameters will be analyzed by using scoring method compare to Water Quality Standards according to Bali Governor Regulation No. 8 of 2007. This act actually the implementation of Government Act No. 82 of 2011 about Water Contamination Control at provincial level. The act is also in accordance with Bali Governor Regulation No. 8 of 2007 Regulation of the Minister of Health No. 416/Menkes/Per/IX/1990 on Standards for the Quality of Clean Water and Drinking Water. Water quality standard can be seen on Table 1. 127 Table 3. Water Quality Standard Category No Parameter Unit I II III IV 1 pH - 6-9 6-10 6-11 6-12 2 Fe Mg / liter 0.3 - - - 3 NO3 Mg / liter 10 10 20 20 4 BOD Mg / liter 2 3 6 12 5 COD Mg / liter 10 25 50 100 6 Detergent Mg / liter 100 200 200 - 7 DO Mg / liter 6 4 3 1 8 Phospat Mg / liter 0.2 0.2 1 5 9 Cadnium (Cd) Mg / liter 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 quantity / 100 ml 500 5000 10000 10000 10 Coli form Source: Bali Governor Regulation No. 6 of 2007 Parameters above will define the proper utility of water resource based on the classification. Category I: This type of water can be used as drink water which can be directly consume or need advance processing. Category II: This type of water can be used for recreation, freshwater development, animal husbandry, irrigation, or any other similar function. Category III: The water can be used for freshwater development sector, animal husbandry, irrigation, or any other similar function. Category IV: The water can be used for irrigation, plantation, or activities which needs this quality standard. In determining the classification of water in the upstream, midstream, and downstream of Pakerisan Watershed, scoring will be used for category of each parameter. Score 4 for Category I, 3 for Category II, 2 for Category III, and 1 for Category IV. If the value of parameters is beyond the standard, then the score is considered become „0'. 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION This part is discussed the result of sampling water examination of each area of Pakerisan Watershed, in upstream, midstream, and downstream area. 128 Upstream Area of Pakerisan Watershed Results of water quality examination in the upstream area in 2012 (Table 2) can be seen that the pH is still possible for existence of living beings. The amount of iron (Fe) in water indicates the water hardness. The data show that the amount in the form of Fe2+ cation are still quite small. Nitrate amount was quite low and still at the threshold to the water quality standard of Category I. BOD is the amount of oxygen used by microorganisms (bacteria) to decompose organic materials in the water. The examination results showed that the amount of BOD in the upstream area in 2012 amounted to 5.22 mg / liter. This indicates that the BOD value is quite large and the water is already heavily polluted. It is classified for water quality standard of Category III. However, the amount of COD or the amount of oxygen required to oxidize organic substances present in the water sample is quite low and still in the quality standard of Category I. Judging from the amount of the detergent as Methylene Blue Active Substance is still classified in the quality standard of Category I. Phosphorus amount is a form of the element phosphorus present in the water from the rest of the laundry detergent, animal waste, fertilizers dissolved, and others. The excessiveness of phosphorus can lead to eutrophication. The results of examination of water sample showed that the phosphate amount is large enough for one liter and classified to Category III. While cadmium amount is low enough cadmium classified to Category I. In terms of microbiological parameters, the amount of coliform in 100 ml water sample is large enough. The presence of coliform is an indication that the river has been contained of pathogenic microbes. If the coliform amount of is more than 200 colonies per 100 ml of water indicates that there has been the possibility of pathogenic microorganisms in the water. Thus, by the number of coliform amount, the water quality is classified to Category II. Based on the examination, the average score for all parameters tested is 3.5. It means that the water in upstream can be classified to Category I. Water in this area could be used as drink water which can be directly consume or need advance processing. The results test of water quality in 2013 are not much different from the results test of the in 2012. A quite different parameter for example, in 2013 it is known that nitrate is much smaller, about 0.98 mg / liter. This is still within the limit of Category I standard quality. The amount of the detergent was much smaller than the amount of detergent in 2012, though it is still within the limits of Category I. The amount of cadmium and coli form is also lower. Phosphate is also quite different from the classification of water quality standards in 2012. Based on the results tested 2013, the amount phosphorus was smaller and can be classified as Category I. Different water quality result between 2012 and 2013 is caused by several factors, such as the difference condition of the river when the sample was taken. In general, the average score of the water quality parameters in the upstream area of Pakerisan Watershed in 2013 was much higher than in 2012. It score 4, but still classified into Category I. Examination results in 2014 was quite different than others. There was a striking difference in the amount of BOD, COD, phosphate, and coliforms. BOD and COD amount in 2014 are 129 quite larger and classified into water quality standard of Category III. It means that the water has suffered heavy pollution. Similarly, the phosphorus amount was much larger. Number of coli form in 100 ml was significantly greater than the examinations in previous years. Thus, it can be said that the quality of river water in the upstream area in 2014 was decline from the previous year. It classified into Category III which means that the water in the area can only be used for freshwater development sector, animal husbandry, irrigation, or any other similar function. Table 4. Scoring and Result of Water Quality Test in Upstream Area Year Parameter Unit 2012 Score 2013 Score 2014 Score pH - 7.03 4 6.96 4 7 4 Fe Mg / liter 0.06 4 0.0143 4 0.0702 4 NO3 Mg / liter 4.641 4 0.98 4 0.277 4 BOD Mg / liter 5.22 2 0.92 4 10 1 COD Mg / liter 9.63 4 3 4 78.72 1 Detergent Mg / liter 89.55 4 <0.01 4 <0.05 4 DO Mg / liter 6.77 4 7.52 4 6.43 4 Phospat Mg / liter 0.679 2 0.13 4 11.859 0 Cadnium (Cd) Mg / liter 0.002 4 <0.0001 4 Undetected Coli form quantity / 100 ml 1000 3 4 24000000 Average Score 3,5 Category I 30 4 I 0 2,44 III Midstream Area of Pakerisan Watershed Examination of water quality in the midstream area of Pakerisan Watershed was conducted in the village of Balega. Examination results of water quality in the middle section of the river can be seen in Table 3. The value parameters water quality standard in the midstream area was pretty varied compared to the examination of the water in the upstream area. Results of the examination of the quality of the water in 2012 shows six parameters were showed good quality, they were qualified to Category I. Although the amount of BOD were high, 6.55 mg/liter, so it got to be classified into Category IV. The amount of the COD belongs to Category III. Then the quantity of coliform in 100 ml was 1900 and it classified to Category II. The phosphate amount in the water was also classified into Category II. Based on these parameters, the average score of water quality parameters is 3.3. It was good 130 enough, it classified into Category II which means that the water can be used for recreation, freshwater development, animal husbandry, irrigation, or any other similar function Water quality test results in the midstream area of Pakerisan Watershed in 2013 showed that all parameters were classified into Category I. Water quality test results in 2014 seems quite different than the previous test. Some parameters are classified into Category IV, such as BOD and COD. While the amount of Cadmium could not be detected. The amount of phosphate and coliform in the water sample were extremely high that their score became 0. The average score of all parameters was 2.44 and like the upstream, in 2014 the water was classified into Category III. Table 5. Scoring and Result of Water Quality Test in Midstream Area Year Parameter Unit 2012 Score 2013 Score 2014 Score pH - 7.18 4 7.07 4 7.5 4 Fe Mg / liter 0.04 4 0.069 4 0.2899 4 NO3 Mg / liter 5.125 4 1.27 4 0.665 4 BOD Mg / liter 6.549 1 1.99 4 10 1 COD Mg / liter 11.508 3 5 4 88.56 1 Detergent Mg / liter 89.63 4 <0.01 4 <0.05 4 DO Mg / liter 6.86 4 8.01 4 6.15 4 Phospat Mg / liter 0.957 2 0.14 4 13.431 0 Cadnium (Cd) Mg / liter 0.003 4 <0.0001 4 - - Coli form quantity / 100 ml 1900 3 70 4 17000 0 Average Score 3,3 4 2,44 Category II I III Downstream Area of Pakerisan Watershed Examination of the river water in the downstream area of Pakerisan Watershed was conducted in Medahan Village. The examination results for the sample of water taken in 2012 showed the amount of BOD were quite high that it classified into Category IV. While the COD amount containing in the water was classified into Category II. The amount of COD and BOD have been indicating the presence of a very heavy pollution. Amount of DO, based on water quality standard was qualified into Category II. The amount of phosphate was also quite high that it classified into Category III. While the amount of coliform was low enough. 131 Apart from the above four parameters, other parameters were in proper amount that they were classified into Category I. Therefore, the average score of all parameters were 3.3. Then the water could be classified into Category II. Examination results in 2013 showed some parameters were classified into Category III, such as the amount of BOD and phosphate. While the value of other parameters, such as the amount of iron, nitrates, detergents, cadmium, and coli form were in good amount. The average score of the parameters is 3.50 so that it could be classified into Category II. Like examination results in midstream and upstream area, some parameters were contained in the water in excessive amount, such as phosphate and coliform in 2014. In 2014, the BOD amount was also very high that its score became 0. The average score of all parameters was 2 and they were classified into Category III. This data indicated that there was environment degradation Table 6. Scoring and Result of Water Quality Test in Downstream Area Year Parameter Unit 2012 Score 2013 Score 2014 Score pH - 7.15 4 7.14 4 7.5 4 Fe Mg / liter 0.02 4 0.181 4 0.3179 - NO3 Mg / liter 3.92 4 3.1 4 0.263 4 BOD Mg / liter 6.492 1 4.06 2 14 0 COD Mg / liter 19.203 3 11 3 59.04 1 Detergent Mg / liter 93.56 4 0.027 4 <0.05 4 DO Mg / liter 4.58 3 7.36 4 5.56 3 Phospat Mg / liter 0.974 2 0.27 2 16.085 0 Cadnium (Cd) Mg / liter 0.007 4 <0.0001 4 - - Coli form quantity / 100 ml 2000 3 210 4 330000 0 Average Score Category 3,2 II 3,5 II 2 III After exposing the examination results of water quality in the upstream, midstream, and downstream area of Pakerisan Watershed in the period of 2012 – 2014, then the water quality category need to be compiled to identify the tendency of contamination or damage that occurred in the area. Water quality classification for each area in Pakerisan Watershed can be seen in Table 5. In the table, it can be seen that the quality of water from 2012 until 2014 and from upstream to downstream were tend to decline. 132 Water in the upstream area were in good quality in 2012 and 2013, but decline in 2014 to Category III. Water quality in midstream area in period 2012 – 2014 tended to be fluctuated. In 2012, the water classified into Category II, but in 2013 the water quality improved to Category I. It caused by the amount of BOD, COD, and phosphate were decreased. However, in 2014 the water quality was declining into Category III. The tendency in downstream area was similar with the upstream area. In 2012 and 2013, water quality in downstream area were classified into Category II, but in 2014 it declined into Category III. In 2014, the quality of water in upstream, midstream, and downstream area were classified into Category III. It means that, nowadays, the water in Pakerisan River can be use for freshwater development sector, animal husbandry, irrigation, or any other similar function. Table 7. Water Quality Classification for Each Area in Pakerisan Watershed 2012 2013 2014 Upstream I I III Midstream II I III Downstream II II III Management Strategy of Pakerisan Watershed Based on the analysis results of the water quality in the upstream, midstream, and downstream of Pakerisan Watershed, then integrated watershed management based on the concept of one river, one plan, one management needed to be formulated. The presence of contaminants in the upstream will certainly have an impact on the middle and lower parts of the watershed. In previous discussion, it is known that the parameters or aspects that led to the decline of water quality in Pakerisan Watershed is the amount of BOD, COD and coliform. Source of BOD is inundated leaves and pieces of wood in the water, plants or animals that are already dead, animal waste, and others. The amount depends on pH, temperature, type of microorganism and the type of inorganic and organic substances containing in the water. Organic waste materials are generally in the form of waste that can be degraded by microorganisms. So that when the organic waste thrown into the waters, it will raise the population of microorganisms. In this case the BOD levels will go up. The increasing population also contribute to the rising levels of BOD in Pakerisan Watershed. Increasing population will increase organic waste which will be dumped into the river. Organic waste that is dumped into the river led to a reduced number of dissolved oxygen, as most bacteria involved in the decomposition. Activity around the upstream area that will increase COD, the level of turbidity and coliform amount is washing clothes with detergents. It is often carried out in the edge of river. The use of pesticides and chemical fertilizers for food crops, using a soap or shampoo in the river, the habit of disposing of garbage, and defecate on the river will also contaminate the river. 133 Therefore, the involvement of local communities in the conservation and management of Pakerisan Watershed is urgently needed. This can be started with the socialization to society by not using cleaning materials, detergents, soaps, and shampoos for any activity in the river. Communal sanitation facility which equipped with its own dirty channels also must be built. Fig. 3 A pile of garbage in the upstream of Pakerisan Watershed The habit of throwing rubbish into the river must be stopped. Infrastructure development, such as the construction of trash and garbage hauling system need to be developed. The community needs to be involved in the activities of cleaning the river and given the knowledge of the pollution in the river. The use of chemical substances in agriculture food plants are also contributing to the occurrence of pollution in Pakerisan River, especially in the upstream. The upstream area is dominated by agricultural activities as food crops. Generally the owner of agricultural land only manages their farm land to fulfill their daily needs, the harvest is not enough to sell outside the region. As the region is declared as World Cultural Heritage by UNESCO, farming activities in Pakerisan Watershed is very important to be preserved. This preservation is carried out not only by ensuring that farming activities in the region will sustain by simply providing fertilizer, agricultural tools, or any other aid. The preservation of world cultural heritage would have to do with an innovation that is not only beneficial to farmers, but also be able to support the quality of the environment. 134 Fig. 4 The Announcement of the Ban on Disposing Garbage Source: Partami, 2012 One of those innovation which can be conducted in the area is the development of organic farming that is environmentally friendly. Organic agricultural product also has higher value. Organic farming, such as horticulture, can be planted with intercropping systems. This will be increase the production of farmer. In addition, the development of compost and manure from cattle wasted are need to be implemented to replace chemical fertilizers as well as the development of natural pesticide. 4. CONCLUSION Based on the exposure earlier in the results and discussion, some things can be summed up as follows: 1. There is an environmental degradation in the area. The quality of water from 2012 until 2014 and from upstream to downstream tended to decline. Water in the upstream area were in good quality in 2012 and 2013, but decline in 2014 to Category III. Water quality in midstream area in period 2012 – 2014 tended to be fluctuated. In 2012, the water classified into Category II, but in 2013 the water quality improved to Category I. It caused by the amount of BOD, COD, and phosphate were decreased. However, in 2014 the water quality was declining into Category III. 2. It was revealed that the parameters or aspects that led to the decline of water quality in the Pakerisan River Watershed is the value of BOD, COD, and quantity of coliform. Strategy to alleviate this problem can be: Development of organic agriculture Development of a natural pesticide Eliminate the habit of disposing of waste and the use of cleaning materials on the river 135 Construction of communal sanitation facility which equipped with its own dirty water channels 5. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This study is a part of multi-years research conducted by Graduate Program of Universitas Mahasaraswati Denpasar. Thanks to Directorate General of Higher Education (DIKTI) for funding the research. 6. REFERENCES Asdak, C. 1995. Hydrology and Watershed Management, Yogyakarta: Gadjah Mada University Press. Effendi, H. 2003. Study of Water Quality for the Management of Resources and the Aquatic Environment, Yogyakarta: Penerbit Kanisius. Government of the Province Of Bali. The Bali Governor's Regulation No. 8 of 2007 on Water Quality Standards and Wastewater, Bali. Indonesian Government Act No. 82 of 2011 about Water Contamination Control Ministry of Forestry, Directorate General of Watershed Management and Social Forestry. 2013. Regulations of Director General No: P 3/V-SET/2013 on Guidelines for the Identification of Watershed Characteristics. Jakarta. Ministry Of Health. 1990. Regulation of the Minister of Health No.: 416/Menkes/Per/IX/1990 on Standards for the Quality of Clean Water and Drinking Water. Jakarta. Ministry Of Health. 1990. SK MENKES NO. 907/MENKES/SK/VII/2002 on Terms and Monitoring the Quality of Drinking Water. Jakarta. Partami, Kadek Dwi Ratna. 2012. Waste Management of Irrigation Channels in Subak Pulagan Tampaksiring, Bali. Thesis. Graduate School of Regional Development Planning and Environmental Management. Bali: Mahasaraswati University Denpasar. 136 Conflict Resolution 137 Conflict Resolution through Mediation: Case Study in a Dam and Hydropower Project Aries Firman Adjunct Associate Professor – SBM ITB Member of Dam Safety Commission – Ministry of Public Works aries.firman@sbm-itb.ac.id aries.firman@gmail.com ABSTRACT : Many infrastructure projects encounter various sorts of challenge during the course of implementation despite of serious effort mobilized during the planning stage. It is sometimes unavoidable to deal with changes of site condition not foreseeable earlier but at the end they contribute to the success or failure of the project. Those changes could be both of technical and non technical issues. This paper outlines the situation in a dam and hydropower project located in Sumatera Island where the key stakeholders were in disagreement on how the project should be completed. Even they have tried their best to achieve a kind of amicable resolution but such mechanism failed. The next step in their mind for conflict resolution to solve the problems was choosing mediation process and finally the results were well accepted by all parties concerned. From the case study, there are lessons learned beneficial for other projects not only for technical issues but also for non technical matters. The basic principles of conflict resolutions through mediation rely heavily on the trust from the parties in disagreement and certainly also the credibility of the mediator. Thus, it is extremely crucial to set up a rigorous mediation process so that the project could finish smoothly in achieving its objectives. Keywords: conflict resolution, mediation, trust, stakeholders, credibility 1. INTRODUCTION This paper initially focuses on a dam project based on the review of secondary data and uses it as a case study on how mediation worked well to resolve disputes. Matyas et.al. (1996) suggested that disputes result in a substantial dilution of effort, delays, and diversion of capital. Moreover, the author studied the possibilities to apply mediation process in other infrastructure projects in the last decade. When conflict starts to appear in a project, the parties should try their best to reach amicable settlement. One of the most universally accepted references in construction contract stipulates that during the first eight weeks after the notice of dissatisfaction, and by the agreement thereafter, the parties should attempt amicable settlement. No method is prescribed in the clause, in order that the parties have the greatest flexibility in the choice of procedures. Alternatives include direct negotiation, mediation, conciliation, and other forms of Alternative Dispute Resolution (FIDIC, 1996). 2. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION The Case Study PLN (State Electricity Company) supported by ADB (Asian Development Bank) built a project in Bengkulu province to generate 3X70 MW consisted of dam, headrace tunnel, penstock, underground power house, tailrace tunnel and electro mechanical equipments. The design was done by a Japanese firm that continued their services as supervisory consultant together with local partners. As far as construction is concerned, 138 there was a consortium of Japanese and Indonesian contractors having the contract through procurement process approved by ADB being one of the project sponsors. During site preparation works, contractors conducted additional site investigation with result of major discrepancies between contract document and actual conditions. One of the findings was something relates to dam foundation as shown on figure 1: Figure 1: Cross Section of Intake Dam Foundation (Source: Firman, Aries, 2002) The design of intake dam with 15.5 meter height assumed that bored piles of 100 cm diameter on sandy clay up to 20 meter depth could withstand the upper structure. Unfortunately, additional investigation found out that from 5 meter below ground surface there were significant amount of strong boulders and consequently the piling works was considerably affected. The comparison between original design features versus actual ones can be seen in Table 1, as follows: Table 1: Discrepancies between original assumptions versus actual features at intake dam Anticipated Actual Boulders of pyroclastic volcanic Numerous boulders, which were origin mostly composed of weak, weathered composed of strong, fresh, andesitic rock. rock. Compressive strengths of rock Compressive strengths of rocks less average 1.040 kg/sq.cm. than 4 kg/sq.cm. Using additional percussion drilled Drilling method using chisel and hammer. mechanical grab. Quantity of piles, 724 piles (=5.700 Quantity of piles, 898 piles (=8.129 m) m) Layer Layer Sand & Clay Sand & Clay Andesite boulder Sand & Clay 139 Volcanic bouder Total pile length = 5.700 m Boulder layer length = 1.358 m Drilling speed = 4,5 m/hour Time = 952 hours Alluvial boulder Total pile length = 8.129 m Boulder layer length = 2.951 m Drilling speed = 1,1 m/hour Time = 1.236 hours (Source: Firman, Aries, 2002) With those huge differences, the contractors submitted claim to the Engineer or supervisory consultants by declaring that such situation was beyond the contractor‟s responsibility. They had to this action because the contract stipulated a clause of liquidated damages (LD) for the milestone in relation to the completion of intake dam facilities. Any delay for this specific key date could hamper the contractors due to the big amount of LD. This dispute about dam foundation was just one example among a long list of other items submitted by the contractors as part of their claim package. On the other hand, the Engineer and PLN rejected most of the claims as recorded in exchange of letters between the parties. When the site progress reached about 60 %, they tried to resolve the conflict through amicable discussions. However, they were still very far apart and the contractors were forced to send a notice for arbitration as per the contract document. The arbitration process could be quite lengthy, time consuming as well as costly and it was not favorable to any party in conflict. For those reasons, all parties agreed to opt for mediation process by seeking support from ADB to suggest potential candidates of mediator who could meet certain requirements. Table 2 illustrates the selection criteria for the mediator. Number Table 2: Selection Criteria for Potential Mediator Description of Criteria 1 Completely impartial (no Japanese and Indonesian) 2 Freedom from conflict of interest 3 Experience with the type of construction involved 4 Experience in hydropower project in Asia 5 Experience with interpretation of contract document 6 Experience with establishing cost appraisal 7 Fluent in English: verbal and writing (Source : Firman, Aries, 2002) From the data base at ADB head office, several potential candidates were contacted and they responded by e mail to show their interests. There were 6 candidates, among them one candidate from Germany did not respond and one candidate from UK was not 140 available during that particular point of time. Meanwhile, the parties must also agree with the scope of mediation and in general it should comply with the following procedures: 1. Number of claims for mediation is limited to those already submitted but still in dispute 2. Each party must submit a position paper for mediator‟s review 3. Evaluation by mediator shall be based on contract & related law 4. The draft of Mediator‟s report maximum in 2 occasions before producing the final report 5. Additional data supplied to Mediator by one party shall be copied to the other party In order to deal with all administrative works of this mediation process, the parties agreed to establish a secretariat office at PLN head office in Jakarta. Time was of the essence because the final decision could not be delayed further to avoid disruption of works at this civil package (Firman, 2002). Representatives from each party joined the effort to start rapidly with the selection process to find the most suitable mediator and produce the results shown below: Table 3: Result of selection process of mediator (Note: NA= Not Available; NQ = Not Qualified; NR = No response) (Source: Firman, Aries, 2002) Based on the results from selection process described above, all parties agreed to appoint AA as the mediator with a term of reference (TOR) signed prior to his service. The TOR described step by step activities as follows: a. Appoint the mediator b. Three parties agreement c. Hearing session in plenary format d. Separate session: The employer The contractors e. Interim reports f. Final recommendation The overall time frame agreed by the parties was about 15 weeks consisted of 1 week of each mediator‟s visit and 6 weeks between each visit of initial trip, interim solution and final recommendation at such point of time that all parties should determine their position. The mediator finally put forward his recommendation for a global settlement 141 notwithstanding the fact that each party submitted their claims on itemized basis. An amount of global settlement equivalent to 4.2 billion yen proposed by the mediator became the basis of approximately one month evaluation by each party. Finally, the parties agreed to accept the mediator‟s recommendation and they formalized it in an amendment of contract after due consultation with ADB and the government of Indonesia. Using the similar basic principles described above, other projects may also take the advantages by using mediation for conflict resolution. Mediation through Independent Panel of Experts Another water project faced conflict between the stakeholders during operation stage but also included expansion project to cater the need of community. Project owner threatened the operator to terminate their contract with arguments concerning non performance or breach of contract. On the other hand, operator argued that it happened because of things beyond their control such as water availability and this should be taken care of by the project owner (Firman, 2013). After the failure of direct negotiation to resolve the conflict between the parties, finally they agreed to appoint an independent panel of experts in 2013. This team consisted of experts from engineering, commercial, finance and legal disciplines. They had to work in 3 months to come up with recommendations as to resolve the conflict. The author joined the panel and came to conclusion about project stakeholder management as an extremely crucial element in conflict resolution. This is in line with a new area of project management introduced recently in the 5 th edition of Project Management Body of Knowledge/ PMBOK (PMI, 2013). Key Elements of Mediation in Infrastructure Projects Conflict resolution has a wide range of means for the project stakeholders to choose. Wherever possible the conflicting parties shall focus to opt for an amicable resolution as their priority to save time, money as well as hostility. The latter could sometimes become so important when they consider sustainability or long term relationship. In other words, they must avoid conflict resolution with an effect of win-lose situation. Mediation process is a non binding result oriented and therefore it depends on how all parties can take advantages from the mediator‟s recommendation. Nevertheless, the role of a mediator is very crucial to understand the overall context, analyze potential solutions and convince the parties that his or her recommendations are objective, no personal conflict of interest and beneficial for the parties in conflict. It should be noted, however, that a mediator must be excellent in his technical skills in addition to superiority in terms of credibility and trust. The two elements of soft skill above are compulsory and non negotiable because impartiality of the mediator is one of the key success factor. When the parties in conflict could not find the right person they can rely on, of course the mediation process remains stand still. Currently, there is another project having similar conflict although the scheme is different. This infrastructure project is fully financed by a state owned company and therefore there is no reference to independent financing such as ADB. When conflicts started to appear after claim submission by the contractors, the progress of site activities 142 has become slow and far below the original schedule. The main reasons for contractors to submit claim are changes of project scope, fluctuation of currency and other unforeseeable conditions. It is related to the basic rationale of a claim whereas one party requests fair and reasonable treatment from other party in the contract (LPJKN, 2009). As the amicable discussions could not yield solutions, the parties are considering the option for mediation process. However, it is now more difficult to prepare a list of potential mediator not because of technical skills but mostly due to the absence of respectful candidate. Research has shown that the role of equality among project stakeholders in Indonesia remains a myth rather than reality as regulated in the law number 18/1999 on construction services in Indonesia (Firman, 2006). There is still big gap between the stakeholders in perceiving project management principles based on project partnering. All stakeholders must be involved since the beginning by the project owner to create a kind of sense of ownership on a level playing field. With regard to dispute involving the community, a conflict also occurred in water supply project in the outskirt of Jakarta where local people opposed to the construction of pipe lines around their village. The project was almost abandoned when the foreign investors could not take any more risks related to the delay because they were unable to deal with the solution demanded by the local people. Again in this case, the investors did not take into account the difficulties to manage all project stakeholders, more specifically the local community. It was quite fortunate that one officer in charge at the regency office could find her ways to solve it. When the investors became frustrated, they reported to regency office about the dead lock in negotiating the solution. Head of regency instructed a lady at his office to act as a mediator knowing that she owned all the hard and soft skills to cover both sides: community and investors. The author interviewed her during the writing of a case study and concluded that her success in resolving the conflict was backed up by a transparent process, her integrity and the trust plus respect from all project stakeholders (Sulistiowaty and Firman, 2013). 3. CONCLUSION Project stakeholders rarely prepare themselves to enter any conflict situation particularly if the contract documents do not specifically include the complete procedures for dispute resolution. When amicable discussion through direct negotiation fails, the relationship between the parties become less conducive to reach a mutual agreement. The next common alternative for them to opt for arbitration or even a court settlement will not be favorable for the parties. In such situation, they should not act like fire fighting brigade but on the contrary they must prepare since the beginning a contract document contains special clauses concerning mediation process. Moreover, it should also be noted the importance of a thorough planning stage to cover most of the sensitive issues in depth with a realistic scope, schedule and budget rather than spending more unnecessary time overrun and cost overrun during the construction stage. Those sensitive issues include technical matters such as unforeseeable physical conditions, scope creeping, monetary situations as well as social related matters such as community or stakeholders acceptance related to the project. The latter requires specific expertise of the mediator who comprehends 143 not only local wisdom of the community but also socio-economic elements of infrastructure projects. It is, therefore, absolutely important to set up a system of capacity building in promoting the role of mediator to deal with conflict resolution in the growing development of multi-disciplinary infrastructure projects. 4. REFERENCES FIDIC, 1996, ‗Guide to the use of FIDIC Construction Contract for Design-Build and Turnkey‘, first edition, Lausanne. Firman, Aries, 2002, ‗The impact of unforeseeable subsurface ground condition on the construction of an intake dam facility‘, 3rd International Conference on Dam Engineering, Singapore. Firman, Aries, 2006, ‗Project Management and International Construction Contract: An Investigation into Issues and Challenges in Indonesia‘, EURAM Doctoral Colloquium, Oslo- Norway. Firman, Aries, 2013, „Final report: on the dispute of West Jakarta Water Project‘, Jakarta. LPJKN, 2009, ‗Module for project management‘, Committee on Expert Certification, Jakarta. Matyas, HM, Mathews, AA, Smith, RJ and Sperry, PE, 1996, ‗Construction Dispute Review Board Manual‘, Mc Graw Hill, New York. PMI, 2013, „A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK)‘, United States of America. Sulistiowaty and Firman, Aries, 2013, ‗Private Investment in Water Supply Project‘, Indonesia Infrastructure Round Table. 144 Economic Impact Assessment 145 Trans Sumatra Highway As The Economic Backbone Of Sumatra Raj Kannan (Director of Tusk Advisory (Tusk)) – raj.kannan@tusk.sg Britt Doornekamp (Project Manager, Tusk) – britt.doornekamp@tusk.sg Amanda Djojonegoro (Senior Associate, Tusk) – amanda.djojonegoro@tusk.sg Renan Raimundus (Associate, Tusk)– renan.raimundus@tusk.sg ABSTRACT: The ability of governments to attract the private sector to invest in infrastructure projects is diminishing due to the lack of bankable projects. However, these sub-financial projects are highly important for economic growth. Governments need to lead in providing the required funding for the provision of infrastructure, especially for those with high economic benefit to the national economy. However,government resources are limited. Therefore, economic assessment is needed to determine which projects should be prioritized to receive government funding support and in what form this funding should be provided. Trans Sumatra Highway (TSH) is an example of such a project. With an investment value of IDR 331.69 trillion (USD 28.8 billion), TSH will connect major cities in Sumatra, creating multiple economic benefits even though the project is currently not commercially viable.The economic assessment of TSH shows that the highway will contribute IDR 769.52 trillion (USD 66.91 billion) to national GDP through the multiplier effect of construction. TSH is expected to create 575,083 jobs in the construction sector and even more in other sectors. The long-term economic impact is estimated to reach up toIDR 3316.90 Trillion (USD 288.43 billion) over 20 years. Furthermore, TSH will reduce direct logistics costs (VOC and time savings) and indirect logistics costs by at least IDR 3,536.31 trillion (USD 307.51 billion) in 2030.Other than providing optimal funding support, the government needs to set up funds and empowercentral coordinatingagencies such as KPPIP10to ensure higher quality of pre-FS and project preparation. Keywords : Economic impact assessment; Trans Sumatra Highway; infrastructure crisis; government funding support; Tusk Advisory 1 INTRODUCTION Development of infrastructure is immensely crucial for the growth of the national economy. In Indonesia particularly, various bottlenecks and lack of investments have been hindering infrastructure development in the past. The main bottlenecks and impediments include ambiguous legal and regulatory frameworks, uncertainty in land acquisition process,lack of long-term financing and inadequately prepared projects. In addition, Indonesia also has unresolved issues with spatial planning requirements, delays and uncertainties in the approval of AMDAL (environmental permit) and IPPKH (Forest Right to Use Permit),poor asset management and lack of consequence management. On the delivery side, Indonesia also faces issues related to weak human capital and poor institutional capacity, lack of industry capacity and absence of community support for infrastructure projects. As the result of these issues andimpediments, infrastructure in Indonesia has been growing rather slowly, leading to a dire situation of insufficient infrastructure to cater for the growing population and economic growth. In the power sector, the geographical complexity of Indonesia with over 17,000 islands combined with the above listed impediments have made it difficult to satisfy surging demand for electricity, resulting in only 76% electrification rates nationally11, the lowest in ASEAN 10 Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery Data from 2012. National electrification rate was 80.5% in 2013 (Source: State Electricity Company of Indonesia/PLN). 11 146 region, and rural electrification of only 32%. In transportation sector, railway development is currently concentrated in Java (72%) and Sumatra islands (28%) only, leading to high logistics costs in other islands. In the airport sector, the growth of domestic and international flights from 71.9 million to 155.2 million passenger per annum from 2005 to 2012 has put considerable stress on the existing airports. Moreover, lack of water supply infrastructure has led to the availability of drinking water of only 54 m3/capita/year in Indonesia, which is significantly lower than in Thailand, which has 1,104 m3/capita/year, and much lower than the ideal drinking water reserve of 1,975 m3/capita/year12. It is quite evident from the above statistics that Indonesia is inan infrastructure crisis, which requires a holistic solution in the form of comprehensive regulatory, fiscal, and institutional reforms, in addition to implementing a series of priority projects that will address immediate infrastructure needs. However, in most countries in the ASEAN region and more particularly in Indonesia, the ability of the governments to attract the private sector to invest in infrastructure projects is diminishing. Not necessarily due to scarcity of private sector funds but more due to the lack of bankable projects that can be sustained purely on a user pay charges basis. In addition, poor connectivity between infrastructure assets such as airport and ports to main economic activity areas, leading to expensive logistics costs often discourageinvestors from investing in infrastructure projects. However, these sub-financial projects are highly important to sustain and enhance economic growth and accordingly it is imperative that the government leads in providing required and necessary funding for the provision of infrastructure, especially for those with high economic benefit to the national economy. The question is therefore, how will the government choose which projects to fund first from its limited resources. In the last decade,the government‟sbudget allocation for infrastructure has been between 3% to 7% of the State Budget (APBN). It is expected that this budget constraint will continue in the immediate future and as such, economic impact assessmentfor the infrastructure projects that the government will fund becomes very important component of the decision process. Economic impact assessment is the examination of benefits and contribution of the project to the regional and/or the national economy. The case study that will be discussed in the paper is the proposed Trans Sumatra Highway, which is aimed to be the economic backbone of the Island of Sumatra. All sections of Trans SumatraHighway, which aims to connect major cities on Sumatraisland,have FIRR 13below 12%, which makes it unattractive to private investors, who usually require FIRR above 18%. For the construction of Trans Sumatra Highway, major investment of IDR 331.69trillion(USD 28.8 Billion14) is required and the SOE assigned to construct the first four 12 Based on“Background Study of Water Resources Development for RPJMN (National Medium-Term Development Plan) 2015-2019”, Ir. M. Donny Azdan, Director of Water Resources and Irrigation, Bappenas (National Development Planning Agency), June 2013. 13 Financial Internal Rate of Return 14 Exchange rate: USD 1 = IDR 11,500 147 sections15(PT HutamaKaryaPersero) does not have the financial capacity to finance the construction. However, since EIRR of the first four sections is assessed to be above 20%, and between 13.5% and 23.4% for the other sections16, this project has high economic importance, which justifies strong governmentsupport17. This paper provides a literature review and estimation of the impact of infrastructure investment in general and cites the proposed Trans Sumatra Highway as a case study for project-specific economic impact analysis, with supporting international case studies where appropriate. This paper concludes by suggesting policy and program recommendations to improve economic impact assessment right from the pre-FeasibilityStudies of priority projects earmarked for government funding. 2 MATERIALS AND METHODS 2.1 The relationship between infrastructure investment and economic growth Empirical research, for example from Aschauer (2000), demonstrates solid evidence for a positive relationship between infrastructure investment and economic development.A study of Calderón, Moral-Benito and Servén (2011) found a positive effect of public infrastructure spendingon economic growth, and a higher marginal returnif the quantity or quality of the infrastructure stock is lower. Mentolio and Solé-Ollé (2009) found that investment in transportation infrastructure, especially roads, positively affects productivity of the region. Agénor and Moreno-Dodson (2006) and Fourie (2006) found several channels through which infrastructure development boosts the economy: lower cost of input factors in the production process; increased labor productivity and growth of construction and construction-related industries; and long-term maintenance jobs. Straub (2008) found that economies of scale and scope through infrastructure development reduce the costs of transportation, which also positively affects economic growth. The impact of infrastructure development on the economy can be estimated through various methods.Firstly, through the „multiplier effect‟, which captures the direct short-term effect of construction, through induced demand for materials, equipment, labor, etcetera. Secondly, medium- to long-term effects are estimatedthroughoutput elasticity, which captures broadereconomic benefits over periods of20 years, or in some cases even longer.Finally, there may be additionalnetwork effects and industrial development effects that exceed the scope and time span of the estimated output elasticity,which are to be consideredin the government‟s long-term (20+ years) sustainable plans. 15 Medan-Binjai (16.8 km), Palembang-Indralaya (22 km), Pekanbaru-Dumai (126 km) and Bakauheni-TerbanggiBesar (139 km). 16 HutamaKarya estimations, 2012-2013. Note: estimations from BPJT (2012) show EIRR below 12% for several sections, but the majority of sections has EIRR > 12%. 17 Based on PIAFF-World Bank’s Toolkit for Public-Private Partnerships in Roads & Highways, generally speaking, projects with EIRR > 12% should be implemented by the Government, while projects with EIRR > 15%should be prioritized. 148 2.2 Analysis of the short-termeconomic impact through multiplier effect Government spending to boost the national economy, also known as „Keynesian Economics‘, has been the center of modern economic policy, especially in times of crisis, such as the wake of Great Depression, euro zone crisis, and the recent global financial crisis, where there was a need to artificially create demand to jumpstart the economy. The multiplier effect, the ratio of increase or change of national output to the increase of government spending, estimates the short-term impact of infrastructure investment on economic output.It captures the demand shock caused by construction, but does not capture the effects of a broader range of economic activities such as improved productivity, or the improvement of supply-side economics. In general, the multiplier effect in developing countries and underdeveloped countries is higher than in more developed countries due to the crowding-out effect. For example, Aschauer (1990) used data of 50 states in the United States of America from 1965 to 1983 to estimate that the multiplier effect of core infrastructure is 2.23, suggesting that every $1 spent on infrastructure will generate output of $2.23. In a more recent study, Cohen, Freiling and Robinson (2012) estimated that the multiplier effect of infrastructure development is about 2. In developing countries, Wang and Yen (2013) found that Chinese government spending on infrastructure has a multiplier equal to or above 3, while in Indonesia the multiplier effect for construction of infrastructure is estimated at 2.32 (Permana and Asmara, 2010). Compared to other types of investment, infrastructure investment is considered to be one of the most effective in boosting the economy, due to its high impact in stimulating economic activities, such as increased demand for raw materials and construction equipment, unskilled labor for physical construction and skilled labor for services (e.g. consultants and contractors), as well as indirectly related services, such as housing for workers, food and restaurant businesses. Though the multiplier effect includes employment creation in terms of GDP, employment absorption is often also estimated in terms of the number of jobs created. Especially for infrastructure projects, as the employment absorption of the construction sector is relatively high and investment in construction is thus considered highly suitable as a strategy to reduce unemployment.Labor elasticity estimates are usuallyused to estimate employment created through economic growth (in this case, the economic growth has been induced by infrastructure investment). 2.3 Analysis of the long-term economic impact through output elasticity In addition to the multiplier effect, medium- to long-term effects of infrastructure investment on theeconomy are captured by the „output elasticity‘, thepercentage increase of output when stock of infrastructure capital increases by 1%. It captures the overall productivity increase in the economy by the provision of infrastructure. 149 Road and other transport infrastructure will increase economic productivity through greater mobility of goods and people, which results in reduction of logistics cost, higher employment, and other channels. Electricity, water, and other utility infrastructure increasesproductivity through a more stable input for manufacturing and commercial activities in general. Provision of social infrastructure, such as schools and hospitals will also increase productivity through a higher human capital. These effects of infrastructure provision are captured by the ―shift supply curve to the right‖, thus increasing output permanently. Theoretically, infrastructure investments increase growth by preventing diminishing returns to scale of private sector capital, raising marginal product of private capital, and raising the rate of output growth (Fedderke, Perkins, Luiz, 2006). Many studies have estimated the effect of infrastructure investment to the country‟s national productivity and output. Most of the studies are based on growth theory, utilizing a production function in which output is a function of labor, capital, and rate of technological progress, adjusting for stock of infrastructure capital in a country. Though various estimation methods have been used, such as Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Vector Auto Regression (VAR), the results consistently show that infrastructure capital investment leads to higher productivity of economy. Aschauer (1989) estimated that the output elasticity of core infrastructure in the United States is 0.24, far higher than other types of government expenditure such as public office buildings, fire stations, etc. Easterly and Rebelo (1993) estimated an output elasticity of 0.16 for transport and communication infrastructure in developed countries. More recent studies by Calderón, Moral-Benito, Servén (2011) estimated the output elasticity of infrastructure ranging from 0.07 to 0.1 using the historical data of 88 countries. Studies in developing countries have estimated even higher output elasticity of infrastructure investment, such as 0.4 to 0.5 in India (Sahoo and Dash, 2009), 0.26 to 0.3 in South Asia (Sahoo and Dash, 2012), and 0.27 to 0.35 in China (Sahoo, Dash, Nataraj, 2010). The higher output elasticity in developing countries is due to higher marginal effect associated with a relatively low stock of infrastructure capital. The collective term‗Network connectivity‘is often used to describe a set of effects responsible for a large portion of the output elasticity which manifests through many channels, such as accessibility to other infrastructure, increased mobility of people and goods, increased export and import and land value creation. Other factors that play a role are economies of scale and scope, and positive spillovers from region-to-region and sector-to-sector, resulting into increased productivity. Furthermore, reduction of logistics costs, vehicle operating cost and time saving are significant factors in boosting the economy. 150 3 CASE STUDY: TRANS SUMATRA HIGHWAY 3.1 Background on Trans Sumatra Highway Trans Sumatra Highway is a planned 2,608-km toll road consisting of 23 segments crossing Sumatra Island from North to South18. The main corridor spans 1,813 km and the supporting corridors 795 km. Trans Sumatra Highway will connect the 7 main hubs in the region, which are Medan (with Port and Industrial Area Kuala Tanjung), Pekanbaru, Jambi, Palembang (TanjungApiApi Port), Lampung, Serang (Krakatau Steel) and Jakarta19. The total cost of the project is IDR 331.69 Trillion (USD 28.8 Billion) and the project has a construction period of 10 to 12 years. Phase I consists of 4 sections20 and is planned to be constructed between 2014 and 2018. Phase 2 consists of 6 sections and planned to be constructed between 2016 and 2020, and finally, Phase 3 consists of 13 sections, which are planned to be constructed between 2019 and 2025. In the past, several sections were tendered as PPP, butdue to lowtraffic demand estimations, they were not financially attractive to the private sector (FIRR < 18%). As the alternative solution, the development of Phase Ihas recently been assigned to wholly-state-owned enterprise PT HutamaKarya (Persero)21. The decision was based on the fact that the project is crucial for Sumatra, as the second largest GDP contributor of Indonesia 22, and assignment to a SOE was considered the most feasible way to accelerate the project. However,PT HutamaKarya (Persero) does not have the financial capacity to fully fund the construction of Phase 1. In order to strengthen PT HutamaKarya‟s capital structure, the Government could contribute to the development through equity injection. Additionally, the Government would need to provide Government guarantees for the required loan, since the project is still not considered financially viable and investors may not be willing to provide loan with sensible interest due to high risk. Finally, as regulated in Government Regulation No. 45 of 2005 on State-Owned Enterprises, the Government shall provide compensation, including margin, for developing a non-financially-viable project.The following sub-sections provide economic impact assessment of Trans Sumatra Highway,which supports the justification of Government funding for the project. 3.2 The multiplier effect of Trans Sumatra Highway construction Using Permana and Asmara‟s estimate (2010) for Indonesia, a multiplier of 2.32, construction of the Trans Sumatra highway with an investment value of IDR 331.69 trillion (USD 28.8 billion), is estimated to contribute IDR 769.52 trillion (USD 66.91 billion) to national GDP (in total during the construction period). It will mostly contribute to Sumatra‟s Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), as construction of the highway will require 18 Map of Trans Sumatra Highway: see Appendix. Jakarta will particularly benefit if Sunda Strait Bridge project proceeds. 20 Medan-Binjai (16.8 km), Palembang-Indralaya (22 km), Pekanbaru-Dumai (126 km) and Bakauheni-TerbanggiBesar (139 km). 21 Presidential Regulation („PerPres‟) Number 100 of 2014 on Acceleration of Toll Road Development in Sumatra was signed by the President on the 17th of September 2014 and promulgated by the Minister of Law and Human Rights on the 18th of September 2014. 22 Sumatra is the second GDP contribution with a contribution of 23.8%, compared to Java with 58%, based on data from the Central Statistics Agency of Indonesia/BPS (2013). 19 151 mostly local resources. Construction materials, such as asphalt, cement and concrete, will be provided locally and especially unskilled labor will be sourced from the surrounding areas. Toll road construction will also stimulate the Sumatra‟s economy indirectly through the demand for housing and daily needs of workers. In terms of employment creation, based on data from Tadjoeddinand Chowdhury (2012), the elasticity of employment in Indonesia for the construction sector is 0.563. Assuming the construction takes 10 years, construction of Trans Sumatra is estimated to absorb 575,083 workers during the construction period23. 3.3 Long-term economic impact of Trans Sumatra Highway In addition to the short-term impact, Trans Sumatra Highway is expected to have many longer-term benefits. For example, the first phase will provide connectivity to strategic ports, such as Bakauheni port, Belawan port, KualaTanjung port.In the context of MP3EI, Trans Sumatra Highway construction will have a significant impact on the economic development of the regions and industries that have been identified, including SEZ MangkeSei, Industrial Zone Dumai, SEZ TanjungApi-Api, SEZ MuaraEnim and the National Strategic Area of Sunda Strait. Assuming thatoutput elasticity ranges from 0.26 to 0.524, the investment of IDR 331.69 trillion (USD 28.8 billion) would generate IDR 1,724.79 trillion to IDR 3,316.90 trillion (USD 149.98 – 288.43 billion)over 20 years25. 3.4 Reduction of logistics costs 3.4.1 Direct logistics costs The two most important factors of a project‟s EIRR26 are the Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC) and value of time savings, which are the direct logistics cost. Vehicle operating costs are all costs associated with the operation of the vehicle under normal conditions, including consumption of fuel, lubricants, tires, spare parts and maintenance, depreciation, and insurance. These factors are estimated based on the type of vehicle (class IV27) and converted into dollars per 1,000 km. The most prevalent methods of PCI (1990) and LAPI-ITB (1997) were used for analysis. Table 8 Vehicle Operating Cost for Arterial and Toll Roads Distance arterial road VOC arterial road in IDR/km Distance toll road in km VOC toll road in IDR/km 23 Calculation: GDP growth increase from Trans Sumatra construction x labor force x elasticity = 0.85% x 120,172,003 x 0.563 = 575,083 workers Labor force and GDP data are retrieved from Central Statistics Agency of Indonesia/BPS (August 2013). 24 Based on literature review from developing countries in Section 2. 25 Calculation: IDR 331.69 trillion (USD 28.8 billion) x 0.26 x 20 years = IDR 1,724.79 trillion (USD 149.98 billion) over 20 years, IDR 331.69 Trillion x 0.5 x 20 years = IDR. 3,316.90 trillion (USD 288.43 billion) over 20 years. 26 EIRR is the Economic Internal Rate of Return, which is the rate of return at which the present value of economic costs equals the present value of economic benefits. 27 Class I: sedan, jeep, pick up car, small truck, and bus; Class II: two wheelset truck; Class III: three wheelset truck; Class IV: four wheelset truck; Class V: five wheelset truck 152 in km (USD/km) (USD/km) Class I 3,475.4 1,242 (0.11 USD) 2,608 902 (0.08 USD) Class II 3,475.4 4,036 (0.35 USD) 2,608 2,193 (0.19 USD) Class III 3,475.4 4,422 (0.39 USD) 2,608 2,367 (0.21 USD) Class IV 3,475.4 5,715 (0.50 USD) 2,608 3,276 (0.29 USD) Class V 3,475.4 7,257 (0.63 USD) 2,608 4,240 (0.37 USD) Source: Feasibility Study of Medan-Binjai (HutamaKarya), 2012-2013 and own calculations The total annual VOC is the sum of the VOCs of each vehicle type multiplied by the Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) for each type of vehicle, multiplied by 365 days. The total VOC reduction as a result of toll road development is equal to the difference between the total VOC of toll road users and the total VOC when these users would have used the arterial road. As shown in the table below, the reduction of VOC increases over time due to increasing traffic demand. The estimated VOC savings are IDR 23.36 trillion (USD 2.03 billion) in 2025 and IDR 33.32 trillion (USD 2.90 billion) in 2030. Table 9 VOC Reduction in 2025 and 2030 (at constant prices) Total VOC Arterial Road in IDR trillion (USD Billion) 2025 2030 42.82 (USD 3.72) 60.95 (USD 5.30) 19.46 (USD 1.69) 27.63 (USD 2.40) 23.36 (USD 2.03) 33.32 (USD 2.90) Total VOC Toll Road in IDR trillion (USDbillion) Total VOC in IDR trillion (USDbillion) Source: Own estimations The second most prevalent factor of EIRR, which is also covered by the output elasticity, is the value of time savings. Since Trans Sumatra Highway will shorten travel distances and increase the average travel speed, travel times will be reduced. The value of travel time saving is based on Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of the region in which the road will be constructed. Table 10 Time Value based on GRDP Time Value in IDR/hour (USD/hour) Class I 13,783 (USD 1.20) Class II 28,187.37 (USD 2.28) Class III 31,355.89 (USD 2.73) Class IV 31,355.89 (USD 2.73) Class V 31,355.89 (USD 2.73) 153 Source: Feasibility Study of Medan-Binjai (HutamaKarya), 2012-2013 and Central Statistics Agency of Indonesia/BPS (2013) The total value of travel time savings is equal to the annual time savings in hours per vehicle multiplied by the (monetary) value of time, multiplied by the AADT. As shown in the table below, the value of travel time savings increases over time, due to increases in traffic demand. Due to economic growth, it is also likely that the value of time will further increase over time, which has not been taken into account in this assessment (Thus, even higher values of travel time savings can be expected). Table 11 Present Value of Time Savings in 2025 and 2030 (at constant prices) 2025 Value of time savings per day in IDR billion (USD million) Value of time savings per year in IDR billion (USD million) 20.24 (USD 1.76) 2030 28.75 (USD 2.50) 7,387.06 (USD 642.35) 10,494.78 (USD 912.59) Source: Own estimations Additionally, similar projects in other countries have shownexceedingly successful outcomes. For example, the North-South Expressway (NSE) in Malaysia is a toll road of approximately 870 km in Malaysia Peninsula, from Thailand to Singapore borders. The toll road passes the states of Johor, Malacca, Negeri Sembilan, Selangor, Perak, Penang and Kedah, covering up to 81% of the population which generate 89% of GDP of Malaysia Peninsula. This toll road has successfully reduced travel time by 50% and perceived cost (vehicles operating cost and time saving cost) by 25% compared to using the old route over the same distance. India‟s National Highway Development Project (NHDP) Phase I, a 5,846-km toll road connecting the four metropolitan cities of India28, has an expected annual growth of passenger traffic of 12 to 15% and the expected growth of cargo traffic is 15% to 18%, enabling further GDP growth. Morover, Ghani, Goswami and Kerr (2012) found a positive impact of NHDP Phase I on the organization and performance of manufacturing. Entry rates in the manufacturing sector have increased in a radius of 10 km from the network, but not in areas further away. Labor productivity and total factor productivity have increased in the same area, and also not further away. Both NSE (Malaysia) and NHDP (India) have demonstrated huge economic benefits, especially through the development of industrial zones along the corridor. 3.4.2 Indirect logistics costs Besides direct logistics costs, such as vehicle operating cost and value of time, there are indirect logistics cost that highly exceed the direct costs. Logistics costs in Indonesia are relatively high compared to its neighbouring countries, accounting for 27% of GDP compared to only 20% in Thailand and 13% in Malaysia. Developed countries such as the USA, Japan and Singapore have significantly lower logistics 28 New Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, and Chennai (Golden Quadrilateral) 154 cost, accounting for only 8 to 10.6% of GDP, providing huge competitive advantages to their economies. (Bahagia et al, 2013). The Indonesian Government recently began to take real efforts in increasing its international competitiveness through reduction of logistics costs. Realistically, a reduction of 17% (from 27% to only 10% of GDP) would be achievable by 2030 if major infrastructures such as Trans Sumatra Highway are being constructed. Based on this 17% reduction, the contribution of Trans Sumatra Highway‟s has been estimated below. Indonesian GDP was IDR 9,985 trillion (USD 868.26 billion) in 2013. Based on a conservative scenario, assuming inflation of 6% and economic growth of 7.15%, Indonesian GDP will be IDR 86,983 trillion (USD 7.56 trillion) in 2030. This also complies with MP3EI‟s GDP target of USD 4 to 4.5 trillion by 2025. Figure 11 GDP Projection 2014-2030 Source: Projection based on data from the Central Statistics Agency of Indonesia/BPS Sumatra‟s share of GDP was 23.81% in 2013, and considering its continuous growth in GDP contribution over the past 13 years, its share in 2030would be 27.68% in “business as usual” case. However, since the new Government under President Jokowi is expected to take strong efforts to increase the share of the second largest GDP contributor, the share of Sumatra‟s GDP is expectedto reach 35% by 2030. Another important factor to be taken into account is the proportion of logistics costs related to road transportation. Land transportation accounts for 72.21% of the transportation costs, while transportation costs account for 46.25% of logistics costs. The other logistics costs consist of 36.38% inventory cost and 17.36% administration cost (Bahagia et al, 2013). Inventory and administration costs are assumed to be reduced as a result of the construction of any type of infrastructure, with a contribution of 65% of road transportation in the case of Sumatra, as Trans Sumatra Highway will become Sumatra‟s backbone and most important infrastructure project in terms of connectivity between industrial and residential zones, ports, airports and other infrastructures. Based on the assumptions above, shares of logistics cost can be estimated as follows: 155 Logistics Costs related to Road Transportation = Share of Land Transportation + Share of Inventory Cost Related to Road + Share of Administration Cost Related to Road = (0.4625 x 0.7221) + (0.3638 x 0.65) + (0.1736 x 0.65) = 0.6832 TSH’s Share in Logistics Cost = Sumatra‟s GDP Share x Logistics Costs related to Road Transportation = 0.35 x 0.6564 = 0.2391 Finally, these will be used to estimate logistics cost reduction due to TSH: Logistics Cost Reduction due to TSH in 2030 = GDP in 2030 x (Reduction of Logistics Cost x TSH‟s Share in Logistics Costs) = IDR 86,983 trillion x 0.17 x 0.2391 = IDR 3,536.31 trillion (USD 307.51 billion29). Hence, logistics cost reduction due to Trans Sumatra Highway in 2030 is estimated to be IDR 3,536.31 trillion (USD 307.51 billion), or, in terms of GDP, the reduction is 4.07% of GDP in 2030. This is considered to be a major contribution, particularly because it highly exceeds its initial investment cost of IDR 331.69 trillion (USD 28.8 billion). 4 RESULT AND DISCUSSION :ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT AS FUNDING DECISION-MAKING TOOL 4.1 Government funding for infrastructure provision Theoretically, government intervention is imperative in the presence of externality. The term „externality‟, first mentioned by Pigou (1920) in The Economics of Welfare, expresses a condition of divergence between private and social costs and benefits, and the need for the Government to correct the condition if social benefits outweighs private benefits. For instance, through public goods provision, where the Government needs to provide funding or subsidy to optimize the provision. After Pigou‟s publication, there have been several prominent studies in the field of externality and social costs/benefits, including Ellis and Fellner (1943), Scitovsky (1954), Buchanan and Stubblebine (1962), and more recent studies such as Canning (1999), who explores the social rate of return of infrastructure investment. Moreover, many studies related to the effect of government contribution through public expenditure in the provision of public goods have been conducted. For instance, a study by Aschauer (1989) found that core infrastructure, such as roads, highways, airports, mass transit and water systems, has higher explanatory power on economic growth than other types of public expenditure. Easterly and Rebelo (1993) found that public expenditure in transport and communication as core infrastructure is consistently correlated with growth. Considering the situation in Indonesia, with itssignificant lack of infrastructure and many large-scale greenfield infrastructure projects that are not commercially viable (low FIRR), and given the government‟s responsibility as public goods provider,it is hard to argue the need for government spending on infrastructure projects such as Trans Sumatra. Moreover, other countries have clearly proven that government support, especially in the initial phase of large infrastructure projects, is the key to economic the project‟s success. For 29 As in previous sections, exchange rate is USD 1 = IDR 11,500. 156 example, the North-South Expressway in Malaysia had traffic demand below the threshold to make the project commercially attractive in the first place. Therefore, the Government of Malaysia (GoM) provided substantial support with a loan ofUSD 634 million and soft loan facilities (Fisher and Babbar, 1996). The support package from the governmentincluded loans for unprofitable sections of the expressway, a traffic revenue guarantee to provide financial support if toll revenue would not reach a certain level and external risks agreements to reduce exchange rate risk (Kuranami et al, 1999). Moreover, a 6% toll increment was secured. However, within 10 years of operation, the road turned out to be highly profitable, so that the traffic revenue guarantee has never been called and the 6% toll increment was not needed. Today, the NSE generates RM 1 billion (~USD 306 million) in surplus revenue every year and more importantly, 27% of Malaysia‟s GDP is generated along the 900km corridor of the NSE. 4.2 Economic assessment to select projects with high economic benefits The Government of Indonesia needs to choose which project to support, because it ispractically not possiblefor the government to fund every single infrastructure project, due to budgetary constraints and public debt limitation. As an illustration, Figure 12below shows the gap between required infrastructure investment and available funding from government budget in 2015-2019 based on the background study for RPJMN 2015-2019. In order for the country to develop and reach middle-income standard by 2020, massive infrastructure investment of 5,619 Trillion IDR is needed. However, the available funding for infrastructure from government is estimated to be only 1,370 Trillion IDR for the next 5 years, leaving funding gap of 4,249 Trillion IDR. Figure 12: Infrastructure Funding Gap 2015-2019 (IDR trillion) 4,249 5,619 Funding gap Funding needed for infrastructure 1,370 baseline Available government funding Source: Background study for RPJMN 2015-2019, BAPPENAS The shortage of government budget to infrastructure investment requires the government to choose projects to fund. To choose which projects to fund, economic impact analysis plays a crucial role. Each infrastructure project has its unique economic costs and benefits and the higher the benefits of a project compared to its cost, the higher the economic return on 157 investment (EIRR). These projects with higher EIRR should be the ones the government prioritize for government funding. In Indonesia, economic assessment is part of the Pre-Feasibilty Study conducted by the GCA or project owner, as stated in Bappenas Regulation No. 6 of 2012 on the Procedures to Develop Infrastructure Project Planning (for PPP Projects).Bappenas Regulation No. 3/2012 on General Guidelines of Implementation of cooperation between the government and business entities in provision of infrastructure provides more details on the substance of the economic study: Social Cost Benefit Analysis should ensure social benefit and economic sustainability; cost ratio with/without the project; economic benefit is the conversion of the financial price into an economic (shadow) price for each input and output based on appropriate economic conversion factors and EIRR/ENPV needs to be estimated using economic and social discount rate; sensitivity analysis is required. However, the regulatory framework is not sufficient to guarantee high quality, while it is of high importance that economic analysis is done properly and accurately.The reason why extensive economic impact analysis often does not happen in Indonesia is funding limitations and human resources capacity, resulting in delay and higher probability of making the suboptimal decisions. For example, Trans Sumatra Highway project encountered difficulties in convincing stakeholders of its high economic benefits and the need to accelerate its development. Though FIRR is below the required level to attract investors due to low traffic estimations, economic justification should be sufficient to convince stakeholders, as EIRR for first four sections arebetween 21.2% to 23.4%. Moreover, small projects identified in Bappenas‟ PPP book, suchas Lamongan Water Supply and East Agam Waste Management, with investment values below US$ 50 million, do not have proper Pre-FS studies, making it difficult for government to justify providing government support. The above cases are not stand-alone cases. Many MP3EI projects do not yet have appropriate Pre-Feasibility studies and the Government thus cannot assess the importance of the project and the most suitable funding scheme. 5 CONCLUSION 5.1 Alternative funding scheme to enhance infrastructure delivery This paper has demonstrated that government funding support is needed for projects with high economic benefits. In addition, it is highly important that the government optimally structures its funding to benefit both public sector and private sector. Under the current system, the available funding schemes are limited and usually Presidential Decrees for State Capital Investments (Penyertaan Modal Negara/PMN)are required, which have the disadvantage that the government needs to fully pay upfront. Moreover,issuance of a Presidential Decree is time-consuming, which has already caused project delay in many cases, for example in the case of Trans Sumatra Highway. 158 It is thus imperative that the government allows and encourages the use of alternative funding schemes, such as“Performance Based Annuity Scheme” (PBAS). PBAS is a public private partnership scheme in which the concessionaire earns a sum of money from the government, either semi-annually or through an agreed specified periodic term, through “annuity payments” during concession period. The payment is given only after the concessionaire delivers the completed asset as agreed in the contract terms. PBAS providesmultiple benefits to the government. Firstly, it eliminates completion risk because the payment to concessionaire is conditional on the completion of the asset.Secondly, it eliminates the budget overrun risk, since the payment is done incrementally over a long period of time instead of the traditional lump sum payment for construction. Government can also manage to fund more projects because the investment cost is spread over multiple years. Thirdly, it improves the quality of operation and maintenance through “Performance Based” scheme, which will minimize the O&M risk. PBAS also provides certainty to private sector through payment guarantee, thus increasing the bankability of the project and reducing funding cost. In order to enable PBAS, government needs to provide strong commitment, especially in multiyear-budget contracts within the Ministry of Finance. Currently, the Ministry of Finance accommodates multiyearbudget contracts of 5 years. Due to the nature of infrastructure concession which can span as long as 50 years, PBAS requires longer budget commitment from government to work optimally.The Ministry of Finance needs a regulatory reform to allow for longer multiyear-budget contracts. 5.2. Institutional Reforms to improve the quality of Pre-Feasibility Studies Understanding the importance of the quality of Pre-Feasibility studies (Pre-FS), in particularincluded economic assessment,the Government of Indonesia should utilize the Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (Komite Percepatan Penyediaan Infrastruktur Prioritas/ KPPIP)30. KPPIP‟s involvement in infrastructure projects begins from the early stage of PreFSscreening via one of its members, Bappenas. Directly from this stage, high quality and standardized Pre-FS studiesshould be ensured as it would highly contribute to the quality of priority project selection. Therefore, KPPIP would develop Pre-FS guidelines to encourage high quality and standardized Pre-FS development, applicable to all project owners. Included in the Pre-FS requirements are economic and financial analysis, which are crucial for KPPIP to determine appropriate funding schemes and sources as well as inclusion of a project on the priority list.Important is that KPPIP will be managed by private sector resources in order to ensure that its members have the required knowledge and technical skills. 30 KPPIP has been established recently, with the ratification of Presidential Regulation No. 75/2014 on the Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery. It includes members from Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of National Planning (Bappenas) and the National Land Agency (BadanPertanahan Negara/BPN). KPPIP has the power to coordinate and make crucial decisions in infrastructure provisions. 159 Of the IDR 80 billion (USD 6.96 million) budget allocated for KPPIP, roughly 50% (IDR 40 billion/USD 3.48 million) would be allocated for pre-FS review and re-do.KPPIP would take a similar role as the India Infrastructure Project Development Fund (IIPDF), which has been established by the Government of India to provide financial assistance for major infrastructure projects. IIPDF has the purpose to finance the cost of project development, such as Feasibility Studies, financial structuring and consultancy services31. However, in the long run, KPPIP should be transformed into an “Infrastructure Crisis Management Agency” (ICMA) which would be responsible for delivering priority infrastructure projects. ICMA would be a limited lifespan company, with a maximum lifespan of 10 years, established via parliamentary approval with similar powers to IBRA32. It should have a mandate to coordinate the delivery of projects that are considered and selected as priority for the nation, which would logically consists of high economic impact projects. Therefore, ICMA would need to have the power to coordinate multiple ministeries and agencies related to the projects and would ideally play a role in solving conflicting national, regional and local laws related to the projects. There is also a need to establish a Joint Government Industry Panel on Infrastructure as a consultative body to ICMA onthe identification of priority projects. Various industries involved in this Panel would attract stronger buy-in from all sectors and reduce controversies in priority project selections. In addition, the PPP unit under the Ministry of Finance, which is planned to be established in 2015, would need to play a role in improving the quality of Pre-FS for PPP projects as they would need to assess them to decide on the optimal funding support. 6 REFERENCES P.R. 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Wen. 2013. “Multiplier Effects of Government Spending: A Tale of China” Economic Dynamics series 2013 Meeting Paper, No. 214, Economic Dynamics 162 7 APPENDIX: MAP OF TRANS SUMATRA HIGHWAY Banda Aceh Batam Medan Batu Ampar Binjai Hang Nadim Dumai Sibolga Pekan Baru Padang Jambi Indralaya Palembang Kayu Agung PHASE 1 Bengkulu PHASE 2 PHASE 3 Bandar Lampung Terbanggi besar Bakauheni Source: PT HutamaKarya (Persero), 2013 163 Infrastructure, Accessibility, And Kotadesasi Effects After Decentralization: Contributions Of Cities To Rural Economic Development On Sulawesi And In Other Island Regions Of Indonesia Jennifer Day, Faculty of Architecture, Building, and Planning, The University of Melbourne jday@unimelb.edu.au ABSTRACT : If the Government of Indonesia is going to achieve its national priority of moving toward spatial equity among the seven island regions, it is critical that the drivers of rural development be better understood. The motivation for this paper is to deepen the evidence base for understanding the contributions of urban agglomerations in Indonesia to national prosperity, and to understand the extent to which Indonesia‘s cities create opportunities and prosperity for the populations in their rural hinterlands. I examine the characteristics of cities that create and constrain growth in Indonesia‘s rural regions, with a particular focus on the Sulawesi Island Region. I improve on the literature in three significant ways: by integrating spatial urban-to-rural spillover effects – that is, the effects that cities have on their rural neighbors; by including disaggregated spatial spillover effects for infrastructure, accessibility, capital, and human capital; and by creating indicators that represent cities and their hinterlands along a continuum of urbanization, rather than as a dichotomy. Major findings include that cities on Sulawesi are not as economically integrated with their rural neighbors in terms of growth; that the returns to education, roads, and electricity reliability on Sulawesi are more pronounced than in other island regions; and that Sulawesi‘s infrastructure spending – though critical – may be a challenge to mobilize. Keywords: Indonesia, Sulawesi, infrastructure, spillovers, growth 1. INTRODUCTION The motivation for this paper is to deepen the evidence base for understanding the contributions of urban agglomerations in Indonesia, to national prosperity. In recent work, The World Bank(2012)has argued that Indonesia could more effectively leverage urbanization for economic growth. Cities in Indonesia, the report says, do not create the same economic benefits for the country‟s people as effectively as do cities in peer countries such as China, India, Vietnam, and Thailand. As with any country where there is significant regional variation, some of Indonesia‟s metropolitan areas have performed better than others at leveraging their populations, endowments, and resources for economic gain. Further, the extent to which Indonesia‟s cities create opportunities and prosperity for the populations in their rural hinterlands, also varies significantly by region. With this backdrop, in this paper, I examine the characteristics of cities that create and constrain growth in Indonesia‟s rural regions. I take a particular focus on the Sulawesi Island Region. Indonesia is an archipelagic nation composed of around 17-18,000 islands (CIA, 2013)33, often divided into seven island regions. This paper focuses on Sulawesi, though it also provides context for an analysis of Sulawesi by examining the country as a whole. I focus on 33 There is some disagreement over the count of islands among sources. The CIA Factbook, cited above, estimates the number to be closer to 17,000. Several online resources and a few academic publications reference a 2002 survey by LAPAN (LembagaPenerbagan Dan AntariksaNasional, National Institute of Aeronautics and Space of Indonesia) which counts the number of islands at 19,307. I am inclined to trust the Indonesian estimates but cannot locate this resource to cite it. Since the number of islands is not of material significance to this work, I merely note the discrepancy. 164 Sulawesi for a number of reasons. As of 2010, Sulawesi was one of the least urbanized regions of Indonesia, with about one third of the population living in cities. The only lessurbanized region in the country is Eastern Indonesia, wherein 30 percent of the population resides in urban regions. From this low base of urbanization, Sulawesi‟s cities are growing fast – among the fastest in Indonesia (The World Bank, 2013). This combined low urbanized population and fast urbanization rate creates challenges particular to this type of urbanization process. Access to water, sanitation, electricity, and roads on Sulawesi are sub-par by national standards, sitting just below the national averages on each measure. Infrastructure spending is also low by national standards, as is the provincial government‟s capacity to raise funds for infrastructure(The World Bank, 2013). In short, Sulawesi is a part of Indonesia where urbanization and infrastructure provision lags behind, and thus, where infrastructure and urban planning can still be crafted to create the broadest possible benefit to the most people. International evidence strongly suggests that infrastructure development is crucial for economic development. If the Government of Indonesia is going to achieve its national priority ofmoving toward spatial equity among the seven island regions(Bappenas, 2011), then more information is needed about the forces that drive growth in strategic locations such as Sulawesi. Since the national decentralization process began in 1999, much of the responsibility for local development in strategic growth corridors has moved to provincial and district governments. Since these governments often lack critical capacities such as to borrow significant funds for infrastructure development (The World Bank, 2013), some of the responsibility for funding infrastructure may fall back to the national government. Thus, economic development on Sulawesi of both local and national strategic concern. This work I present in this paper is significant for a number of reasons. First, it is significant in the methodological concerns it adds to the body of knowledge about growth and infrastructure in Indonesia. Previous studies of Indonesia in general have found a disappointing lack of significance in growth models, particularly for longer analysis periods, e.g., McCulloch and Sjahrir(2008). I incorporate spatial analysis methods that improve the models‟ predictive capacity significantly, and that also go beyond the standard dichotomous urban-rural classifications to create a more-nuanced picture of urbanization and its impacts. Second, this paper focuses particularly on urban-to-rural spillover effects, examining the impacts that cities have on their rural neighbors. Third, I focus on a neglected but important region of Indonesia – one which has the chance to preclude the pitfalls of unplanned urbanization and inadequate infrastructure provision that plague the national capital, Jakarta. Toward this end, the objectives of this paper is as follows: To provide a statistical description of infrastructure stocks and/or access to infrastructure in Sulawesi as compared to other island regions: Sumatra, Kalimantan, Java/Bali, and Eastern Indonesia; To assess the impacts of infrastructure stocks/access to infrastructure on economic growth (and other relevant outcomes) in Sulawesi and the rest of Indonesia; and To examine the (positive or negative) infrastructure and/or economic growth spillover effects from major urban areas in Sulawesi to the rest of the island. 165 2. BACKGROUND This paper pays attention to infrastructure and economic geography linking the growth of cities to the prosperity of their rural hinterlands.As an analytical device, I use spillover effects and spatial statistics, capitalizing on theory that calls for nuanced considerations to help us make appropriate and useful distinctions between urban and rural places. This literature review provides a background to inform the forthcoming analysis. I begin with a discussion of how economic geography is theorized and operationalized to understand the drivers of growth. Then, I review the evidence on spillover effects. Finally, I take up the issue of the ethics of creating knowledge around the urban-rural distinction, and examine the nuance that the desakotaframework allows us to bring to the research. 2.1. Leveraging Cities for Growth At least since the 1890s or so (Marshall, 1890), urban analysts have concerned themselves with understanding the impacts of spatially-agglomerated people and economic activity – of cities. Today, as Asia‟s mega-urban regions grow to populations counted in the tens of millions, and as population urbanizes at rates never before encountered in human history, these questions are no less relevant than they were in Marshall‟s time. This paper is about the impacts that urban agglomerations have on their hinterlands. It is about relationships between population agglomeration and the presence of natural endowments, assembly of human capital, and amassing of public goods. The importance of urban regions to national growth is widely acknowledged.However, despite the rich tradition of research in the field, there is little collective agreement regarding the relative importance of the processes underlying those benefits of agglomeration (Glaeser and Gottlieb, 2009), or the magnitude of those benefits. As the theory goes, cities are born out of some combination of geographic advantages. Cronon(1991) calls this the “first nature” of geography. From inception, cities grow and shrink – both in population and economic terms – based on a number of factors. These underlying factors that drive the process of agglomeration are the subject of decades of study. Cronon(1991) attributes agglomeration to continued human investment toward the amassing of public goods in the city. This assembly of public goods, Cronon calls the “second nature” of geography. Using Chicago as an example, he cites major human investments such as a dredged harbor, a canal system, or a marketplace, as the fuel for agglomeration. Krugman (Krugman, 1991b, Krugman, 1991a) usesdifferent language, but stresses the impact of transportation costs on agglomeration, as well as stressing the importance of returns to scale from population agglomeration. Davis and Henderson (2003) find that, among other factors, investment in inter-regional infrastructure and increased fiscal decentralization are causally liked to the movement of urban concentration from primate to non-primate cities. Other analysts attribute part of the agglomeration process to heightened levels of knowledge exchange and knowledge spillovers that urban areas provide. From the pioneering contributions of Marshall (1890), Jacobs (1969), Romer(1986) and Lucas (1988), a broad literature has evolved that examines the positive externalities resulting from the agglomeration of knowledge and human capital. This early work did not consider the 166 underlying processes by which knowledge was transferred between actors in urban agglomerations. More recent and more sophisticated analyses examine these underlying processes. For instance, Berliantet al(2006) posit that agents engage in knowledge transfer by seeking matches (i.e, other agents possessing a similar type and level of knowledge), thereby improving production efficiency.Glaeser and Mare (Glaeser and Mare, 2001) observe the wage premium among American cities and attempt to explain it in a study of inter-urban migrant wage patterns. They conclude that a significant portion of the wage premium stays with workers after they leave cities. This, they conclude, is evidence that “cities speed the accumulation of human capital.” Equally impressive literatures exist, however, that address agglomeration from an industrial perspective – that is, that define agglomeration based on the clustering of industry rather than people; for instance: (Krugman, 1991b, Krugman, 1991a, Krugman, 2007, Fujita and Krugman, 1995, Barro and Sala-i-Martin, 1991a, Beardsell and Henderson, 1999, Ellison and Glaeser, 1997, Ellison and Glaeser, 1999, Mukkala, 2003). In Indonesia, Deichmannet al(2005) study the propensity of manufacturing firms to locate off-Java, and conclude that even large infrastructure improvements would have little effect on firms‟ preferences for settlement on Java. McCulloch and Sjahrir(2008) conclude that nearness to economically growing regions is a significant indicator of a district‟s economic performance. Fan and Scott (Fan and Scott, 2003) find evidence of heightened productivity attributable to industrial agglomeration in China. Glaeser and Gottleib(2009) discuss industrial clustering, but assert that the major agglomerative benefit in modern cities is the role of density in speeding the flow of ideas. The contents of this section establish the importance of paying attention to cities in analysis of economic development – and in particular, to their industrial composition, natural and infrastructure endowments, ongoing investment in infrastructure, and human capital accumulation. The next sections establish the influences that spatial proximity can have on growth, which is another particular focus of this study. 2.2. Spillover Effects Neighbors can influence each other in myriad ways, with effects spilling across borders and jurisdictions. Spillovers can occur from conflicts(Murdoch, 2002, Vothknecht and Sumarto, 2011), innovation and technology (Paci and Pigliaru, 2001, Bottazzi and Peri, 2003, Ciccone, 1996), and as I will demonstrate in the remainder of this section, economic productivity and growth, and infrastructure. Furthermore, studies of the influence of neighbors can occur with many types of jurisdictions as the unit of analysis, from nations and super-national regions like the European Union, to sub-national jurisdictions like Indonesian Districts and Sri Lankan Divisional Secretariat areas. In this section, Ireview the empirical evidence for spatial spillover effects measured at sub-national spatial units, since this is the scale with which Iam concerned in Indonesia. I focus particularly on spillovers related to infrastructure and growth, and where possible, I draw on the evidence for spillovers occurring from urban to rural regions. Recent work in Indonesia (Day and Ellis, 2013, Day and Lewis, 2013) suggests that accounting for spillovers can increase the explanatory power of previous studies on growth in 167 the country. A recent report by the World Bank (2012) concludes that the country has not leveraged its cities for economic development as efficiently as peer countries, but is not able to be definitive about the processes underlying this lagging economic development. Growth models attempting to sort out the underlying factors with sub-national analysis have failed to return conclusive results, e.g., (McCulloch and Sjahrir, 2008). A few studies have focused on spatial effects in sub-national growth models for Indonesia – namely,(Day and Ellis, 2012a, Day and Ellis, 2012b, Day and Ellis, 2013, Day and Lewis, 2013, McCulloch and Sjahrir, 2008, Rumayya et al., 2005)Though the study is generally inconclusive, one important relationship that McCulloch and Sjahrirdo identify is that nearness to a growing region has enhanced economic growth and convergence. In a study of regional GDP (Gross Regional Domestic Product, GRDP) in the East Java province of Indonesia between 1983 and 2002, Wardaya grouped administrative districts into rich and poor “clubs,” and studied the convergence of spillover effects. The major finding from this research (that districts in poor clubs diverged faster than rich ones) was not spillover-related. However, they found spillover effects to be significant. In a number of sector-specific and general economic panel growth models for data spanning from 1993 to 2007, Day and Ellis (2013a, b) conclude that spatial effects are among the most significant in predicting economic growth. All of these studies focus on the economic characteristics of neighbors, and fail to differentiate other important spillover effects such as public capital, human capital, and infrastructure. Day and Lewis (2013)improve on these studies by examining differentiated growth spillover effects for Indonesian districts. They examine differentiated effects for infrastructure, industrial composition, capital, and human capital factors; however, their study does not address the effects of cities on rural neighbors. Day and Ellis (Day and Ellis, 2013) take on the spillovers of cities onto rural neighbors in Indonesia, but again do not address the differentiated spillover effects of infrastructure, public capital, and human capital. As Day and Ellis (2013) and Day and Lewis (2013) demonstrate, accounting for the effects of neighbors in predictive models of growth, improves the models‟ predictive power. Outside of Indonesia, few studies examine either differentiated spillover effects or urban-torural spillovers. Those studies that address spillovers tend to focus on a particular area. For instance, some studies examine value-added effects, e.g., Magalhaeset al (2000)in Brazilian states in a panel dataset spanning 1975 to 1995; Ying (2003)in a study of neighbor effects in Chinese regions from 1978 to 1998. Other studies examine spillover effects of infrastructure improvements. Lall (2007) examines spatial spillover effects from road and communications infrastructure in Indian states; and Perret (2011)considers the effects of power and water infrastructure, and road infrastructure, on value added growth in the Russian Federation. Both studies find significant effects. 2.3. Kotadesasi Geography This study includes in its scope, the effects of urban places on growth in rural ones. Since the 1950s at least, the urban-rural divide has been the subject of sustained debate in development. Kuznets (1955) and later Williamson (1965) posit that extreme levels of income inequality will be generally present only in the initial stages of development. As a country‟s national income rises, resources and wealth will be spread over increasing parts of the territory. The 168 sentiment that “a rising tide lifts all boats” finds its way into more-current publications, such as the World Development Report 2009, published by the World Bank (The World Bank, 2009). In the modern, connected world, it is perhaps misguided to regard urban and rural as distinct. As Douglass (1998) points out, for households and individuals in rural areas, daily life involves both urban and rural elements. People who farm or engage in rural industry often travel to cities to access markets, shopping, healthcare, and other urban services. Rural-urban migrants often do not stay in the city the entire year, and move between their home villages and urban areas following harvests and seasonal work. Of further concern in studies of urbanization and urban-to-rural spillovers is that cities and their hinterlands often conform more to a continuum than to a dichotomy. McGee (1969) describes this pattern of urbanization askotadesasi, often shortened to desakota(McGee, 1969).The term is derived from the Indonesian words for city (kota), village (desa), and Dutch-derived si (from ti, process). A kotadesasiurban region contains a core city, metropolitan suburban areas, and hinterlands that are more or less urban based on factors such as population density, livelihoods, interconnectedness, and spatial proximity. For McGee, describing Southeast Asia along an urban-rural dichotomy is not useful or accurate. The intensity of urbanization in Indonesia generates a need to allow for this complexity to be reflected in analysis. The techniques I use to operationalize spillover effects in this paper, as described in Section 3, reflect the nuance of McGee‟s definition. The nuanced treatment of urban and rural that I use in this paper addresses, somewhat, the debate that Douglass and McGee raise over the usefulness and ethical consequences of distinguishing urban and rural people for analysis. The structure of the query – with a focus on cities and their benefits to rural neighbors – also allows us to avoid engaging in another major dilemma of analysts working in this area. Urban bias refers to a perceived or real skew of economic policies are often seen to be benefitting urban areas disproportionately over rural ones(Lipton, 1977, Lu and Chen, 2006). In Indonesia, Soemarwoto (1979)argues that there is an exploitative relationship between the cities and their hinterlands. He cites as evidence, the higher incidence of poverty in rural areas. The study described in this paper, by recognizing the extent to which different factors influence growth in urban and rural areas, allows for an exploration of the contributions of urban regions to improving growth outcomes for rural places. In this way, the study allows us to comment on strategies that can help to lessen urban bias if it exists. 3. MATERIALS AND METHODS 3.1. Data, Variables, and Spatial Units All data come from various surveys and censuses conducted by Indonesia‟s Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and the Ministry of Finance. GRDP per capita and other monetary values are given in real 2000 Indonesian Rupiah (IDR). The spatial unit of analysis is Indonesian local-government districts. In 1999, Indonesia began its “Big Bang” decentralization process, transferring some spending and government functions to local (i.e., district) 169 governments. There were 298 administrative local-government districts before the process began, including six in the Jakarta metropolitan area. By 2010, there were 491 districts. In order to compare the same spatial units over time, I collapse district data to pre-Big Bang configuration (298 districts). This study spans the post-Decentralization period of 2001 to 2010. The analysis includes data for all districts for which there were data available. Subsequent analyses will segregate spillover effects on rural areas, and analyze the effects of urban spillovers on other urban and rural regions. As specified in the equations above, I use indicators of population and workforce, land, labor, capital, and infrastructure. In particular, I are interested in testing whether economic spillover effects are responsible for any part of the growth and productivity in Indonesian districts, both for the overall economy and for manufacturing industries, which are notably dependent on infrastructure provision. To reflect the availability of land available for economic development, I employ as an indicator, the reported unused land area for villages in the district. This comes from the Village Potential Survey (PotensialDesa, or Podes), which was conducted in years 2003, 2005, and 2008 of the study period. Intermediate years were interpolated linearly. As indicators of the size of the labor force and the capacity of that labor force to generate economic activity, I use working age population and mean years of schooling. These data come from the annual National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas). Following theory that distinguishes the attractive powers of some infrastructure (power, water, etc.) and centrifugal features of other infrastructure (roads), I develop two indicators of a district‟s infrastructure. The first of these infrastructure variables reflects the percent of manufacturing electricity purchased from the national electric company, PLN. This data comes from the annual Large and Medium-Scale Manufacturing Survey, or StatistikIndustri(SI). The second is the proportion of villages served by an asphalt or gravel road (from Susenas). Data on capital owned by manufacturing firms also comes from the SI data. As indicators of capital availability and effectiveness, I include capital owned and capital investment by medium and large manufacturing firms. The data for this indicator also comes from the StatistikIndustri. I acknowledge that electricity and capital data gathered from manufacturing firms (the SI data) are non-ideal for measuring whole-economy growth. However, I view them as suitable proxies in the absence of other data sources on these attributes of districts, in light of evidence pointing to industry as the largest sectoral beneficiary of public infrastructure provision compared with other economic sectors (HoltzEakin and Lovely, 1996, Moreno et al., 1997). 3.2. Urban-to-Rural Effects Herein, I refer to the latter of these effects (urban neighbors‟ effects) as urban-to-rural spillover effects. These model results, then, show patterns and trends for rural regions; each observation included in the estimation of the models is for a rural district. Districts were classified as urban or rural based on Uchida and Nelson‟s (UCHIDA and NELSON, 2008)Agglomeration Index, and detailed in the World Bank report on Indonesia, titled, “The Rise of Metropolitan Regions: Towards Inclusive and Sustainable Regional Development” (The World Bank, 2012). This process is further detailed by Day et al. (2014). To 170 summarize very briefly, these authors contend that metropolitan definitions in Indonesia and other developing countries, lags behind the pace of urbanization. They propose a framework for identifying urban regions that recognizes places as urban based on density and proximity requirements, rather than on government classification. This process results in a much larger proportion of Indonesia being classified as urban for analysis purposes, than if government classifications for districts were used. Figures 1 and 2 map the urban regions as defined by the Agglomeration Index (blue) and government designations (black), for Western and Eastern Indonesia. Urban regions are considered in this analysis, only in their contribution to spillover effects in rural areas. The converse relationship, rural-to-urban spillover effects, were not computed here. Neither were the contributions of rural neighbors‟ to other districts, included here. 3.3. Econometric Models Econometric models were developed that test the relationships between economic growth and various demographic, capital and infrastructure indicators, and particularly the urban-to-rural spillover effects of these indicators. I use the modified Durbin-Watson framework proposed by Day and Lewis (2012), where the final model to be estimated is: N N j=1 j=1 (gy )i,t = a (I - lWt,gy )S + b ln(y0 )i,t + d å (Wy0 ) ln(y0 )i,t + l å (Wgy )t (gy ) j,t + g1 (Land0 )i,t + g 2 (Labor0 )i,t + g 3 (Capital0 )i,t + g 4 (Infrastructure0 )i,t + N N t 1 å (WLand )t (Land0 ) + t 2 å (WLabor )t (Labor0 ) j,t + j=1 j=1 N N j=1 j=1 +t 3 å (WCapital )t (Capital0 ) j,t + t 4 å (WInfrastructure )t (Infrastructure0 ) j,t + vi,t (1) 171 Figure 1. Urban Agglomerations, Western Indonesia Figure 2. Urban Agglomerations, Eastern Indonesia 172 Where gy is growth in a variable of interest, e.g., GRDP per capita, i is a district, j refers to all other districts that could influence i, and w is a weight matrix given by a gravity formula: W ij = (ATTRACTION j ) eg (SEPARATION ij ) where g represents a modeler-defined impedance value (presumed here to be 1). I choose the gravity method for development of W, reasoning that spillover effects for a given district in Indonesia would be influenced by not only the magnitude of the effect elsewhere, but also the economic distance – i.e., functional separation between two places as reflected by economic factors (The World Bank, 2009) – between that district and its neighbors. As a measure of separation, I use road travel time, generated from road network data and presumed travel speeds in ArcGIS. Attraction is proxied by district population. This approach is superior to a distance or adjacency-based approach in that it does not assume symmetric and reciprocal spillover effects between two regions. Rather, this approach allows for uneven effects between districts (Perret, 2011).I note that I have removed self-influence from each of the terms in the equations, so the results shown do not include a district‟s own self-influence on spillover effects acting upon it. I also use a local Moran‟s I statistic to illustrate spillover effects descriptively (Moran‟s I statistics are not used in the econometric models). Moran‟s I can also be computed locally, for individual districts. In this context, the Moran‟s I statistic provides a measure of spillover effects between districts. The formula for the local Moran‟s I is: Ii = N(xi - x) N å(x - x) i i=1 N å w (x ij j -x) 2 j=1 (1) Where x is a variable of interest, e.g., GRDP per capita, i is a district, j refers to all other districts that could influence i, and w is a weight matrix. A negative Moran‟s I implies that a district‟s performance on measure x is inversely associated with its neighbors‟ performance – i.e., negative spillover effects are present. A positive Moran‟s I implies that a district‟s performance on metric x is directly associated with its neighbors‟ performance – i.e., positive spillover effects. My weight matrix in computing the Moran‟s I is the same as the weight matrix used in the econometric modeling, which appears earlier in this section. It is important to take note of one critical aspect of the weight matrix: namely, that the weights used in both the econometric models and the Moran‟s I are based on the population of nearby metropolitan areas and the distance of the district from them. This is how I integrate desakota considerations into the metrics and models. In this study, I compute the Moran‟s I for rural districts only, using the spillover effects from urban areas only. This means that a negative Moran‟s I can be interpreted as follows: rural areas with better accessibility to larger cities (measured by the weight matrix) grow more slowly than those with worse accessibility. A positive Moran‟s I means that better spatial accessibility to cities is associated with higher growth for those rural regions. 173 4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 4.1. Description of infrastructure stocks and/or access In access to services for the population, Sulawesi varies in its relative performance among the regions depending on the type of service. Figures 3, 5, and 6 show the proportion of households that have access to electricity, sanitation, and clean water between 2001 and 2010. In each of the figures, urban and rural households are presented separately, and in addition, the ratio of urban coverage to rural coverage is also presented for each service, to reflect the amount of urban/rural disparity that exists in service provision. Electricity access appears to be the most widespread of all services. Figure 3 shows that of the five studies island regions, the lowest penetration are in urban areas is in Eastern Indonesia, which had well in excess of 80 percent coverage in 2010. Rural areas in Eastern Indonesia had the lowest electricity penetration rates with around 60 percent in 2001. Electricity coverage rates rose during the study period in all island regions, and the urban-torural coverage ratio declined. This indicates that rural areas are catching up to urban areas in electricity coverage. Figure 3 also indicates that, for electricity access, Sulawesi is about average among the regions. In both urban and rural districts, it ranks above or on par with Eastern Indonesia and Sumatra, and below Java and Kalimantan. It is generally on par with Kalimantan and Sumatra in urban/rural disparity, though it is behind Java on this measure. For verification purposes, I also proxy electricity reliability using the SI data on electricity that manufacturing firms self-generated in the period between 2000 and 2009. Figure 4 plots this proxy of electricity reliability for urban and rural areas, as well as the urban-rural ratio. The main lessons from this figure at that all of the regions seem to experience erratic rather than trending behavior, and there appears to be no apparent trend toward convergence within any of the regions. The differences between Figure 3 and Figure 4 highlight the significant possibility of generating different outcomes when using different metrics. I consider this further in the model specification below. Sanitation penetration rates (Figure 5) and water penetration rates (Figure 6) are generally lower than electricity rates for all island regions, but an albeit slow convergence trend appears to hold in sanitation access as well. Sulawesi lags behind much of the rest of the nation with regards to sanitation access, but it‟s urban and rural penetration rates rose in the study period, and the urban-to-rural ratios fell. Access to water is improving in all regions, with urban areas outpacing rural areas such that convergence is not yet apparent. In terms of roads, Sulawesi performs well relative to regions other than Java. Figure 7 shows Sulawesi‟s linear kilometer of good roads per square kilometer of land area, and all roads per square kilometer, respectively. Part (a) of the figure gives urban road coverage,part (b) gives rural coverage, and (c) givesthe ratio of urban to rural coverage. For overall roads coverage, Sulawesi ranks above or on par with the four non-Java regions for both good roads and all roads coverage. It maintains that ranking for rural road coverage, but falls in rank to third for urban “good” road coverage and second for all roads coverage. It is noteworthy that urban road kilometers per land area, and rural roads to a far lesser extent, increased markedly between 2005 and 2006. For urban roads, it is this 2005-2006 interval when road coverage in 174 Sulawesi surpassed most other regions. Before 2005, Sulawesi‟s road coverage performance was poor relative to other regions (though it performed ahead of Eastern Indonesia). Figure 8 gives roads data in a different format, providing a measure of the proportion of households with access to sealed roads using the Podes data. The Podes data corroborates the road-coverage data, with Sulawesi performing ahead of all regions except Java in rural areas, and Kalimantan in urban areas. Interestingly, the Podes roads indicator does not show the same dramatic increase as does the area coverage data. This implies that new or improved roads may not have provided increased access for people proportional to the increase in coverage of the land area. Neither Figure 7 nor figure 8 show any evidence of convergence between roads coverage for urban and rural areas. Quite the contrary, urban road building appears to be significantly outpacing rural road building. In summary, Sulawesi is performing at around the average of the five island regions with respect to electricity (urban and rural), urban sanitation, and urban road provision. It performs above average for water (urban and rural) and rural road provision. It lags behind in rural sanitation provision. With regards to convergence on Sulawesi between urban and rural areas, there is some evidence that there is movement toward conversion in electricity and sanitation provision, but in other areas, there is stagnation or divergence. In the next sections, I explore how this infrastructure investment has translated into economic growth. These sections examine the impacts of infrastructure stocks, and access to infrastructure, on economic growth on Sulawesi compared with the rest of Indonesia. I further examine spillover effects from infrastructure and economic growth spillovers from major urban areas in Sulawesi to the rest of the island, compared with national urban-toruralspillover effects (described in the next paragraph). First, in this section I examine spillovers and growth effects of particular infrastructure indicators, using cross-tabulations and summary statistics. In Section 5.3, I model the relationships between infrastructure and economic growth using linear fixed effects models. Importantly, I note that the purpose of this analysis is to examine urban contributions to rural growth on Sulawesi. Given this, the results presented here reflect impacts of own-district and urban neighbors‟ infrastructure and other variables on growth in rural regions. 175 0 0 0 2009 0.1 2008 0.2 2007 0.3 2006 0.4 2005 0.5 2004 0.6 0.8 0.6 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 (b) Rural 2003 0.8 2002 0.8 2001 0.6 Ra o of Urban to Rural Propor ons of Households with Electricity Access 0.8 2001 0.7 Ra o of Urban/Rural Self-Generated Electricity 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 1 2000 0.1 2009 0.2 2008 0.3 2007 0.5 2006 0.4 2005 0.7 2004 1 0.4 2003 0.6 2010 0.6 2002 0.8 2009 0.8 2001 0.9 Propor on of Manufacturing Energy that is Firm Self-Generated, Rural Districts 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 Propor on of Households with Electricity Access 1 2000 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 0.4 2001 2000 Propor onof Manufacturing Energy that is Firm Self-Generated, Urban Districts (a) Urban (c) Urban/Rural 2 1.8 Sumatra 1.6 Kalimantan 1.4 Java 1.2 Sulawesi Eastern Indonesia 1 Figure 3. Proportion of Households with Electricity Access, 2001-10 1.4 1.2 1 Sumatra Kalimantan 0.4 Java Sulawesi 0.2 Eastern Indonesia Figure 4. Manufacturing Energy that is Firm Self-Produced, by District, 2000-2009 176 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.6 1 2010 0.6 2009 0.7 2008 0.7 2007 0.8 2006 0.8 2005 (b) Rural 2004 0.9 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 (b) Rural 2003 0.9 2002 (a) Urban 0.4 2001 0.3 Ra o of Urban to Rural Propor on of Households with Sanita on Access 0.3 2010 0.4 2009 0.4 2008 0.5 2007 0.5 2006 0.6 2002 (a) Urban 2005 0.6 2004 0.7 2003 0.7 2002 0.8 2001 0.8 2001 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 Propor on of Households with Sanita on Access 0.9 Ra o of Urban to Rural Propor on of Households with Wter Access 0.5 2001 2002 Propor on of Households with Water Access 0.9 1.6 (c) Urban/Rural 1.4 1.2 Sumatra 1 Kalimantan Java 0.8 Sulawesi 0.6 Eastern Indonesia Figure 5. Proportion of Households with Sanitation Access, 2001-10 (c) Urban/Rural 3 2.6 2.8 2.4 Sumatra 2.2 2 Kalimantan 1.8 Java 1.6 Sulawesi 1.4 Eastern Indonesia 1.2 Figur Figure 6. Proportion of Households with Access to Water, 2001-10 177 2008 2005 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 -1 (b) Rural 1 45 0.9 40 0.1 5 0 0 2009 2008 2007 0.05 2006 0.1 2005 0.15 2004 0.2 2003 0.25 2002 0.3 2001 29 2000 0.35 Ra on Urban/Rural Roads per Square Kilometer 34 1999 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 0.4 2008 0.6 2004 (b) Rural 2005 0.7 0.8 Ra o Urban/Rural Villages with Asphalt Road (a) Urban 2008 0.8 0 2003 0.05 2002 0.1 2001 0.15 2000 0.2 1999 0.25 Rural Roads per Square Kilometer 0.3 2005 0.9 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0.35 2003 1 Propor onof Rural Villages with Access to an Asphalt Road 0 2003 0 1999 Urban Roads per Square Kilometer 0.4 2003 Propor onof Urban Villages with Access to an Asphalt Road (a) Urban (c) Urban/Rural 24 Sumatra 19 Kalimantan 14 Java 9 Sulawesi 4 Eastern Indonesia Figure 7.“Good” Roads per Land Area, 2001-10 (c) Urban/Rural 35 30 Sumatra 25 Kalimantan 20 Java 15 Sulawesi 10 Eastern Indonesia Figure 8. Villages with Access to an Asphalt Road, 2003, 2005, and 2008 178 4.2. Moran’s I: Growth Spillovers Figure 9 shows the average Moran‟s I for Indonesia‟s rural regions for the year 2001 to 2010. The Moran‟s statistic is an indicator of the economic benefits or contribution a rural district shares with nearby urban districts. I note that the Moran‟s I statistic is weighted by district population to reflect the importance of more-populated areas. Because of the extreme performance of Java, some trends in other districts were masked (Figure 9b). Thus, I include a graph without Java (Figure 8a) to make the trends in other regions appear more clearly. Most significantly, Figure 8a illustrates that spillover benefits of rural areas from urban areas has declined on Java (Figure 9b) and Sumatra (Figure 8a) over the decade. These overall trends indicate that, when spillovers are undifferentiated into constituent effects and are instead measured by a gross indicator of economic activity (GRDP), the cities on Indonesia‟s two most populated islands cannot be said to be generating a trend of growth in their hinterlands. We note that the econometric models in Table 3 and 4, presented in Section 5.3, suggest that Java and Sumatra are doing better than Sulawesi at generating prosperity in their neighbors, but this does not necessarily mean that they are doing well. The Moran‟s I is computed based on GRDP per capita, not percent growth. This means that actual levels of GRDP in rural districts that have stronger neighbour relationships with cities on Java and Sumatra are growing more slowly in absolute terms, than rural districts with weaker relationships. In short, cities on Java and Sumatra are not driving growth for their rural neighbors, and in actuality, are detracting from it.On Kalimantan, the trend was reversed, at least up until 2009. This implies a strengthening of the importance of cities in rural development on Kalimantan. On Sulawesi and in Eastern Indonesia, small but consistent decline in the Moran‟s I is apparent. Whereas there is a significant decline of the influence of cities on rural growth on Java and Sumatra and significant strengthening of the role of cities on Kalimantan, there has been relative stagnation and decline in Sulawesi and Eastern Indonesia. This trend suggests that cities on Sulawesi and in Eastern Indonesia are not benefitting their rural hinterlands. Taken together, all of these findings are disconcerting. If cities are the most efficient engines of growth (as we established in Section 2), and if cities receive the lion‟s share of infrastructure development (as we demonstrated in Section 4), and furthermore and if cities are not performing this function for their rural hinterlands, then how will populations in rural regions benefit from urbanization? In Section 5.3, we address this question in more detail by examining the constituent aspects of cities and their impacts on rural districts. We find that there are some specific urban investments that can be more or less fruitful for rural neighbors. 4.3. Infrastructure-Growth Relationships As the literature review demonstrates, there is strong evidence that good connectivity and infrastructure are linked. Typically, the literature has not distinguished between 179 connectivity and public utilities in urban and rural regions. This section explores those links. Figure 10 plots 2010 road coverage against GRDP per capita for rural areas throughout Indonesia and Sulawesi. Plots are also given for roads classified as “Good,” and total road kilometres regardless of classification. The major lesson from these graphs is that, for rural districts throughout Indonesia and also on Sulawesi, (a) Without Java (b) With Java Figure 9. Moran’s I for Five Regions, 2010 there is not a direct relationship between connectivity, measured by road density, and economic development level. It is important to note that these graphs do not control for other potentially-causal factors such as human capital and proximity to cities. We do that in the modelling. However, these trends are illustrative in that they defy typical ideas that better roads facilitate economic development. The expected trend does hold generally, when the analysis includes urban regions. Figure 11 shows the same plots, but this time, cities are included. When cities‟ effects on growth are factored in, the relationship with road density and reverses, showing consistantly-positive associations across road type and geography. This highlights the need to consider urban and rural areas separately in growth analysis, which our econometric estimations do. Another type of effect occurs when we look at growth instead of GRDP per capita levels. Figure 12 shows the relationship between roads coverage and growth between 2001 and 2010, for all of Indonesia, across four scenarios: for both good roads and overall roads, and for all districts and only rural districts. Figure 13 shows the same associations for Sulawesi. As these two graphs illustrate, the relationship of significance in the growth scenario is not in the urban-rural distinction, as in Figures 180 10 and 11. Rather, the significant relationship is in the geography. For all of Indonesia, regardless of road type or whether cities are included or excluded, there is a positive association between roads and growth. Places that had a higher road coverage in 2001 grew faster in the subsequent nine years (Figure 12). For Sulawesi, road coverage is not associated with growth. The main take away is this: while some rural regions in Indonesia may be benefitting from road development, on Sulawesi, neither rural districts – nor cities – benefit by having more roads contained within them, in terms of growth. As we will see in the next section, this finding holds in the econometric models, but there is a significant twist: road connectivity in neighboring cities is profoundly supportive of growth in rural districts. This implies that the spatial models, considering spiller effects, are significant improvements to non-spatial estimations. I also examine the relationships between manufacturing energy and industry economic productivity. Figure 14 shows the relationship between manufacturing value-added per worker (i.e., worker productivity), and the proportion of energy that manufacturing firms self-generate (rather than purchase from PLN, the national electricity company), in 2009. We use this as a measure of the reliability of the electricity grid. The top row of figures shows these relationships for all districts, urban districts, and rural districts in Indonesia. The bottom row of figures shows the same, but for districts on Sulawesi only. The major take-away from this graph is that there is no apparent relationship between electricity reliability and growth in manufacturing in Indonesia or Sulawesi, regardless of whether rural areas are considered separately or with cities. In the next section, we consider whether spatial factors play a role in the impact of the electricity supply. The econometric models support the pattern that these graphs suggest: in Indonesia and on Sulawesi, reliable electricity – either in the district or in its urban neighbors – is not a significant factor driving growth. 4.4. Econometric Estimations Equation 1 (above) is used in the final specifications. From this model, I develop four estimations of own-district and spillover effects on growth. First, I examine annual GRDP per capita growth effects in all-Indonesia versus Sulawesi (Table 1) and annual manufacturing productivity growth effects in all-Indonesia versus Sulawesi (Table 2). For comparison purposes, the models are estimated without spillover effects and with spillover effects, and the results are presented side-by-side. The third and fourth models further disaggregate the spillover effects by region (Sulawesi versus Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, and Eastern Indonesia) so that Sulawesi‟s performance can be compared to those in other regions. Multiple estimation methods were attempted, including estimation with fixed effects and with random effects, and (to control for potential endogeneity) two-stage least squares (2SLS) and generalized method of moments (GMM). The instrumentalvariables estimations produced results that were qualitatively similar to the fixed effects and OLS estimations. This is possibly due to a lack of good instruments, 181 andpossibly due to the models being properly specified and estimated with the models that do not control for endogeneity. Figure 10. Road Coverage versus GRDP per capita, 2010 182 Figure 11.Total Road Coverage versus GRDP per capita, 2010 183 Figure 12. Roads Coverage versus GRDP per capita Growth, Indonesia, 20012010 184 Figure 13. Roads Coverage versus GRDP per capita Growth, Sulawesi, 2001-2010 185 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 y= - 401954x + 137511 R² = 0.11316 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 Propor on of Manufacturing Electricity that is Firm Self-Generated, Sulawesi Districts, 2009 Manufacturing Value Added per Employee, Sulawesi Urban Districts, 2009 Manufacturing Value Added per Employee, Sulawesi, 2009 350,000 420900x2 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1,200,000 1,000,000 Propor on of Manufacturing Energy that is Firm Self-Generated, Indonesia Urban Districts, 2009 Propor on of Manufacturing Energy that is Firm Self-Generated, Indonesia Districts, 2009 400,000 y = 197999x2 + 20941x + 116361 R² = 0.13384 1,000,000 Manufacturing Value Added per Employee, Indonesia Rural Districts, 2009 800,000 1,200,000 400,000 y = 485975x2 - 514538x + 168405 R² = 0.16601 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 Manufacturing Value Added per Employee, Sulawesi Rural Districts, 2009 y = 197999x2 + 20941x + 116361 R² = 0.13384 1,000,000 Manufacturing Value Added per Employee, Indonesia Urban Districts, 2009 Manufacturing Value Added per Employee, Indonesia Districts, 2009 1,200,000 Propor on of Manufacturing Electricity that is Firm Self-Generated, Sulawesi Urban Districts, 2009 y = 366637x2 - 154478x + 129444 R² = 0.15228 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 Propor on of Manufacturing Energy that is Firm Self-Generated, Indonesia Rural Districts, 2009 400,000 350,000 y = 726243x2 - 411736x + 96962 R² = 0.60285 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 Propor on of Manufacturing Energy that is Firm Self-Generated, Sulawesi Rural Districts, 2009 Figure 14. Manufacturing Energy Relationship to Manufacturing Productivity, 2009 186 To decide between fixed and random effects (FE and RE) estimations in Models 1 through 4, Hausman tests were run on each pair of corresponding FE and RE equations. The Hausman test provides a hypothesis test where the null hypothesis is that the FE model is efficient and consistent under the tested hypothesis. The Hausman tests indicate that fixed effects estimation should be used. In choosing fixed effects models, I follow other notable authors that control for area-specific factors but do not consider endogenous relationships in estimating spillover effects (Garcia-Mila et al., 1996, Perret, 2011, Holtz-Eakin, 1994). I note that accounting for spillover effects improves model fit in all cases, as indicated by the R-squared value. Here, I have used the adjusted R-squared to avoid the upward influence of more variables on the standard R-squared value. Also, for many of the coefficients – and particularly in the models in Tables 1 and 2 – accounting for spillover effects unmasks some effects that are masked in the non-spillovers models. For instance, in Table 1, the own-district effect of GRDP per capita on growth, increases from -0.075 (Model 3) to -3.22 (Model 4), when spillovers are accounted for. In other variables, e.g., working-age population (Table 1), the spillover model exposes an effect on the variable that was entirely masked (i.e., showed no significance) in the non-spillover model. Tables 1 and 2 offer some policy insights specific to Sulawesi, relative to the national conditions. Perhaps most striking about the comparisons in Tables 1 and 2, is the effect that urban productivity growth (both in terms of GRDP and manufacturing value added growth, per capita) has on Sulawesi relative to the other island regions examined here. On Sulawesi, the urban-to-rural spillover effects of urban productivity on rural districts is dramatically larger (in the negative direction) than national trends. In Table 1, GRDP growthper capita is nearly a full order of magnitude higher than the national trend, with a one-percent increase in urban neighbors‟ productivity being associated with a 3.246 percent decrease in the district‟s own GRDP per capita. In manufacturing, the difference in trends between all of Indonesia and Sulawesi are even more pronounced. In Table 2, a one-percent increase in urban neighbors‟ productivity is associated with a 63.840 percent decrease in manufacturing productivity in Sulawesi‟s rural districts, as opposed to no effect in the national model. This implies that rural areas on Sulawesi lose even more of their productivity to citiesthan in the country at-large – i.e., that cities on Sulawesi are not as economically integrated with their rural neighbors, or if they are, this integration detracts from rural areas‟ growth even more on Sulawesi than it does on average for the country. The implications for this finding are profound. If national policy seeks to leverage urban wealth to generate returns for rural areas, these policies are failing on Sulawesi. Next, the returns to education, roads, and electricity reliability on Sulawesi are more pronounced than in other island regions. Model 4 on Table 1 indicates that a onepercent increase in education achieved by adults on Sulawesi, increases GRDP per capita growth by 0.370 percent (over an increase of 0.97 percent nationally) and there 187 is a further urban-to-rural spillover effect of education on Sulawesi (where there is not in the national model, Model 2). This implies that education policies in urban areas on Sulawesi, and own-district increases in education outcomes, both improve GRDP per capita growth faster than the national average. The same trends hold for roads. Whereas Table 1 shows no roads effect in the national models (Models 1 and 2), growth on Sulawesi is responsive to the increased roads per kilometer of land area. Furthermore, urban-to-rural contributions to growth are improved when urban neighbors have more-dense road coverage.. The spillover effects of education and roads coverage are even more pronounced for manufacturing productivity, shown in Table 2. Own-district effect of mean years of education for adults, is positive (as opposed to being negative in the national model) and much higher, showing a 7.409 increase in manufacturing productivity associated with a one-percent increase in education outcomes. For roads, urban-to-rural spillovers are high and in favor of rural districts on Sulawesi, compared with national trends. When urban neighbors have one-percent better roads, rural manufacturing productivity increases by a whopping 29 percent. This is likely a function of multiple factors related to good roads, including access to higher-end markets (wealthier urban areas command more goods and higher prices), port access, and more manufacturing firms being willing to locate near better roads. As I discussed in the previous section, this finding that urban neighbors‟ road coverage significantly affects growth for rural districts, implies that the spatial models, considering spiller effects, are significant improvements to non-spatial estimations. Spatial effects should probably included as standard effects in future growth models for Indonesia Regarding electricity, Sulawesi‟s rural regions‟ responsiveness to unreliable energy is twice the national trend (Table 2), albeit both the national and Sulawesi effects are quite small. Neither model shows significance on spillover effects. Also, urban-torural spillovers from new capital investment (as indicated by loan interest repayments) are higher on Sulawesi than nationally, which indicates that capital invested in cities on Sulawesi enriches rural areas at a higher rate compared with the rest of the country. On other variables, Sulawesi‟s trending away from national averages is alarming rather than encouraging. In Table 2, Model 2 indicates that higher existing urban capital stocks help own-district performance and also spill over positively into rural areas. However, no such trend appears on Sulawesi. Tables 3 and 4show national models with and without spillovers, with interaction terms indicating the island region.GRDP growthper capita is the dependent variable in Table 3, and worker productivity (value added per worker) growth is the dependent variable in Table 4. The suppressed category for all interaction terms is Sulawesi. The purpose of this model setup is to compare the urban-to-rural spillover effects of Sulawesi with other island regions. I note that Model 1 in Table 3 is identical to Model 1 in Table 1, and similarly, Model 1 in Table 4 is identical to Model 1 in Table 2. I reproduce Model 1 in these tables for comparison purposes. 188 The advantage of this model specification is that I can compare spillover performance of districts on Sulawesi with districts in other island regions. Here, a negative coefficient on the spillover effect implies that the effect of that variable on that region is smaller than the effect experienced on Sulawesi; a positive coefficient implies that the effect is larger for the specified region than for Sulawesi. For instance, in Table 3, spillover effects of GRDP growthper capita on Kalimantan are 0.184 percent lower than the same type of effect of Sulawesi. Unfortunately, this effect is one of the few variables on which Sulawesi outperforms other regions. For economic and demographic variables, spillover effects on Sulawesi underperform those of other regions. ForGRDP per capita level and growth, population, working-age population, and schooling, Sulawesi outperforms any region only once, in Table 4, for population spillover effects on Java. For infrastructure and capital variables, Sulawesi‟s performance does not lag behind other regions, as demonstrably as in its demographic and growth spillover characteristics. In fact, for effects of roads, electricity, capital stock, and capital investment spillovers, it performs on par or ahead of all regions except for capital stock effects on manufacturing value added on Sumatra, and capital investment effects on manufacturing value added in Eastern Indonesia (both in Table 4). 5. CONCLUSION Sulawesi shows some troubling trends in terms of infrastructure stocks and their relationships to growth. Despite being ahead of most regions in terms of infrastructure stocks (particularly roads, electricity, and water), Sulawesi performs merely on par with most other regions in terms of the effects of that infrastructure on growth.Convergence between urban and rural regions is occurring for some services (electricity and sanitation) but not others (water and roads). This implies that Sulawesi could be more effectively leveraging its urban infrastructure stocks for economic gain in rural regions. As The World Bank (2013) notes, it is critical that funding for infrastructure development on Sulawesi be mobilized. The region will struggle to assemble these resources, as it lags behind the national average in spending, fundraising, and borrowing capacity. National intervention may be required on a limited basis to facilitate borrowing or investment through public private partnerships (PPPs). Sulawesi‟s position as a fast-urbanizing Island Region presents opportunities for the Government of Indonesia and the local provincial and district governments in the region, to initiate productive urbanization processes. Appropriate investment in infrastructure will be critical in this process. On Sulawesi and nationally, spatial effects improve growth models of urban-to-rural growth effects.Paying attention to what urban neighbors are doing can also help in rural development. This study provides an initial framework, examining prosperity through the coarsest of sub-national indicators: GRDP. Future studies need to go far beyond considering GRDP. As Sen (1999)and Nussbaum (2011)describe,just 189 societies facilitate not only the growth of national accounts, but also the real capabilities that growth creates for people. In the area of urban development, it is important that we begin paying attention to the opportunities that cities create for rural people in terms of livelihoods, education, and health. Since cities are rural regions are so profoundly interconnected and becoming even more so, thecapacity of cities to generate rural prosperity is worthy of attention in policy development and academic study. 190 Table 1. Fixed-Effects Models of Urban-to-Rural Spillover Effects on GRDP per capita, 2001-2010, Nationally and for Sulawesi (1) (2) (3) (4) Annual Annual Annual Annual GRDP per GRDP per GRDP per GRDP per capita capita capita capita VARIABLES1 growth growth growth growth (gy), (gy), (gy), (gy), Indonesia Indonesia Sulawesi Sulawesi No No Spillover Spillover Model type spillover spillover effects effects effects effects GRDP per capita at the -0.229*** -0.296*** -0.075*** -0.322*** beginning of each growth period (t=0) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) Spillover effects of GRDP per -0.381*** -3.246*** capita (t=0) (0.000) (0.000) 0.029*** 0.029*** Spillover effects of GRDP per capita growth (gy) (0.000) (0.001) -0.161*** -0.133*** 0.010 -0.048 Population (0.000) (0.000) (0.865) (0.684) 0.404*** -0.287 Spillover effects of population (0.000) (0.396) Working-age population (aged -0.017 0.061** -0.035 0.117 15-64 years) (0.443) (0.017) (0.299) (0.148) Spillover effects of working0.295*** 0.776** age population (0.002) (0.033) 0.097*** 0.030 0.195*** 0.370*** Average years of schooling (0.003) (0.427) (0.002) (0.000) 0.016 0.184* Spillover effects of average years of schooling (0.561) (0.053) Roads (roads classified as 0.004 0.002 0.012* 0.017*** "good," per land area of the district) (0.205) (0.459) (0.084) (0.007) -0.008 0.889*** Spillover effects of Roads (0.297) (0.000) Electricity (percent firm self0.000042* generated) -0.0001* * -0.00015 -0.0001** (0.057) (0.044) (0.106) (0.037) -0.014* -0.006 Spillover effects of electricity (0.056) (0.425) 191 Capital stock 0.001*** (0.000) 0.000* (0.069) 0.012*** (0.000) 0.000 (0.169) -0.003*** (0.000) -7.574*** (0.000) 1,510 0.895 182 0.001*** (0.000) 0.000 (0.218) 0.014 (0.755) -0.000 (0.818) -0.001 (0.122) 3.818 (0.380) 253 0.952 29 Spillover effects of capital stock Capital investment (loan -0.002*** -0.001*** interest repayments) (0.000) (0.005) Spillover effects of capital investment 2.379*** 0.076 Constant (0.000) (0.904) Observations 1,596 261 R-squared (adjusted) 0.845 0.938 Number of id_292 182 29 pval in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 1 All variables (dependent and independent) are log-transformed using natural logarithms, except one given in percent terms. This is: Electricity (given as the selfgenerated electricity as a percent of the total consumed by manufacturing firms). Table 2. Fixed-Effects Models of Urban-to-Rural Spillover Effects Productivity, 2001-2010, Nationally and for Sulawesi (1) (2) (3) Manuf. VA Manuf. VA Manuf. VA productivity productivity productivity VARIABLES1 growth (gy), growth (gy), growth (gy), Indonesia Indonesia Sulawesi No spillover Spillover No spillover Model type effects effects effects Manufacturing productivity at -0.494*** -0.529*** -0.540*** the beginning of each growth period (t=0) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) Spillover effects of -0.547 manufacturing productivity(t=0) (0.553) 0.247** Spillover effects of GRDP per capita growth (gy) (0.012) 2.564*** 0.823 4.857** Population (0.001) (0.406) (0.034) -0.208 Spillover effects of population (0.914) Working-age population (aged 0.221 0.314 -0.279 15-64 years) (0.619) (0.629) (0.810) Spillover effects of working-age 0.626 on Worker (4) Manuf. VA productivity growth (gy), Sulawesi Spillover effects -0.667*** (0.000) -63.840** (0.011) 0.208 (0.595) 5.225 (0.321) -0.978 (0.943) 1.972 (0.576) 12.147 192 population Average years of schooling -1.611** (0.019) Spillover effects of average years of schooling Roads (roads classified as 0.067 "good," per land area of the district) (0.256) Spillover effects of Roads Electricity (percent firm self- -0.003*** generated) (0.004) Spillover effects of electricity Capital stock Spillover effects of capital stock 0.018*** (0.000) (0.797) -0.846 (0.345) -0.556 (0.489) 0.018 (0.757) 0.279 (0.169) -0.002* (0.079) -0.038 (0.826) 0.010*** (0.001) 0.244*** (0.000) -0.011 (0.185) -0.023*** (0.005) -10.912 (0.748) 1,244 0.531 178 -0.156 (0.945) -0.297 (0.209) -0.006** (0.046) 0.006 (0.447) (0.463) 7.409* (0.083) 4.095 (0.353) 0.027 (0.914) 29.753*** (0.000) -0.003 (0.493) 0.012 (0.968) -0.010 (0.329) -0.108 (0.949) -0.014 (0.521) 0.050* (0.066) -42.961 (0.827) 215 0.491 29 Capital investment (loan interest -0.029*** -0.018 repayments) (0.000) (0.295) Spillover effects of capital investment -23.899** -49.828* Constant (0.013) (0.060) Observations 1,311 223 R-squared (adjusted) 0.489 0.380 Number of id_292 178 29 pval in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 1 All variables (dependent and independent) are log-transformed using natural logarithms, except one given in percent terms. This is: Electricity (given as the self-generated electricity as a percent of the total consumed by manufacturing firms). 193 Table 3. Fixed Effects Models of Urban Spillover Effects on Rural Areas, GRDP per capita Growth, 2001-2010, with Disaggregated Spillover Effects (1), (2), Model (1) (2) Model, continued continued continued Annual Annual Annual Annual GRDP per GRDP per GRDP per GRDP per capita capita capita capita VARIABLES1 VARIABLES1, continued growth growth growth growth (gy), (gy), (gy), (gy), Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia No No Spillover Spillover Model type spillover Model type spillover effects effects effects effects GRDP per capita at the -0.229*** -0.237*** Roads (roads classified as 0.004 0.002 beginning of each growth period "good," per land area of the (t=0) (0.000) (0.000) district) (0.205) (0.480) Spillover effects of GRDP per -0.184* Spillover effects of Roads, -0.009 2 capita (t=0), Kalimantan (0.082) Sumatra (0.605) Spillover effects of GRDP per 0.340*** Spillover effects of Roads, -0.165 capita (t=0), Sumatra (0.000) Kalimantan (0.494) Spillover effects of GRDP per 0.107 -0.039 Spillover effects of Roads, Java capita (t=0), Java (0.156) (0.299) 0.125** -0.374*** Spillover effects of GRDP per Spillover effects of Roads, capita (t=0), Eastern Indonesia Eastern Indonesia (0.046) (0.001) Spillover effects of GRDP per 0.054*** Electricity (percent firm self- -0.000* -0.000** 194 capita growth (gy), Sumatra Spillover effects of GRDP per capita growth (gy), Kalimantan Spillover effects of GRDP per capita growth (gy), Java Spillover effects of GRDP per capita growth (gy), Eastern Indonesia Population (0.000) 0.003 (0.563) 0.020*** (0.009) 0.058*** -0.161*** (0.000) Spillover effects of population, Sumatra Spillover effects of population, Kalimantan Spillover effects of population, Java Spillover effects of population, Eastern Indonesia Working-age population (aged -0.017 15-64 years) (0.443) Spillover effects of working-age population, Sumatra Spillover effects of working-age population, Kalimantan Spillover effects of working-age (0.000) -0.134*** (0.003) 0.516 (0.188) 0.617** (0.033) -0.381 (0.157) 1.041*** (0.008) 0.019 (0.518) 0.577* (0.076) 0.776*** (0.007) 0.048 generated) (0.057) Spillover effects of electricity, Sumatra Spillover effects of electricity, Kalimantan Spillover effects of electricity, Java Spillover effects of electricity, Eastern Indonesia Capital stock 0.001*** (0.000) Spillover effects of capital stock, Sumatra Spillover effects of capital stock, Kalimantan Spillover effects of capital stock, Java Spillover effects of capital stock, Eastern Indonesia Capital investment (loan interest -0.002*** repayments) (0.000) Spillover effects of capital investment, Sumatra Spillover effects of capital (0.038) -0.009 (0.648) -0.042 (0.106) -0.045* (0.094) -0.019 (0.445) 0.000 (0.179) 0.006 (0.371) -0.036 (0.433) 0.010 (0.186) -0.017 (0.742) -0.001*** (0.001) -0.000 (0.829) 0.000 195 population, Java Spillover effects of working-age population, Eastern Indonesia Average years of schooling 0.097*** (0.003) (0.803) 0.111 (0.748) 0.144*** (0.000) -0.118 (0.434) 0.083 (0.282) -0.208 (0.416) 0.084** (0.016) investment, Kalimantan Spillover effects of capital investment, Java Spillover effects of capital investment, Eastern Indonesia (0.675) -0.002** (0.018) -0.001 (0.487) -5.537*** (0.004) 1,510 0.887 182 0.00 Fixed 2.379*** Spillover effects of average years Constant of schooling, Sumatra (0.000) Spillover effects of average years Observations 1,596 of schooling, Kalimantan R-squared (adjusted) 0.845 Number of id_292 182 Spillover effects of average years of schooling, Java Hausman Test p-value 0.00 Fixed/Random Effects Fixed Spillover effects of average years of schooling, Eastern Indonesia pval in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 1 All variables (dependent and independent) are log-transformed using natural logarithms, except one given in percent terms. This is: Electricity (given as the self-generated electricity as a percent of the total consumed by manufacturing firms). 2 Sulawesi is the suppressed category for all interaction variables Table 4. Fixed Effects Models of Urban Spillover Effects on Rural Areas, Worker Productivity Growth, 2001-2010, with Disaggregated Spillover Effects (1), (2), Model (1) (2) Model, continued continued continued VARIABLES1 Manuf. VA Manuf. VA productivity productivity VARIABLES1, continued Manuf. VA Manuf. VA productivity productivity 196 growth (gy) No Model type spillover effects Worker productivity at the 0.506*** beginning of each growth period (t=0) (0.000) Spillover effects of worker productivity(t=0), Kalimantan Spillover effects of worker productivity(t=0), Sumatra Spillover effects of worker productivity(t=0), Java Spillover effects of worker productivity (t=0), Eastern Indonesia Spillover effects of worker productivity growth (gy), Sumatra Spillover effects of worker productivity growth (gy), Kalimantan Spillover effects of worker productivity growth (gy), Java growth (gy) Spillover effects 0.434*** (0.000) -3.161 (0.323) 2.794** (0.039) 3.877* (0.058) 4.506** (0.016) 0.505 (0.111) -0.285 (0.553) 0.084 (0.599) growth (gy) No Model type spillover effects Roads (roads classified as 0.067 "good," per land area of the district) (0.256) Spillover effects of Roads, Sumatra Spillover effects of Roads, Kalimantan Spillover effects of Roads, Java Spillover effects Eastern Indonesia of Roads, Electricity (percent firm selfgenerated) Spillover effects of electricity, Sumatra Spillover effects of electricity, Kalimantan -0.003*** (0.004) growth (gy) Spillover effects -0.017 (0.778) -0.200 (0.657) 5.953 (0.287) 0.137 (0.867) -0.598 (0.807) -0.004*** (0.003) -0.247 (0.627) -0.881 (0.139) 197 Spillover effects of worker productivity growth (gy), Eastern Indonesia Population -0.155 2.564*** (0.001) Spillover effects of population, Sumatra Spillover effects of population, Kalimantan Spillover effects of population, Java Spillover effects of population, Eastern Indonesia Working-age population (aged 0.221 15-64 years) (0.619) Spillover effects of working-age population, Sumatra Spillover effects of working-age population, Kalimantan Spillover effects of working-age population, Java Spillover effects of working-age population, Eastern Indonesia -1.611** Average years of schooling (0.019) (0.658) 1.429 (0.203) 3.045 (0.758) 15.833** (0.015) -13.864* (0.057) -17.963 (0.123) 0.216 (0.742) 5.595 (0.438) -2.744 (0.674) 0.747 (0.869) 20.292** (0.039) -0.364 (0.680) -1.583*** Spillover effects of electricity, Java Spillover effects of electricity, Eastern Indonesia Capital stock 0.018*** (0.000) Spillover effects of capital stock, Sumatra Spillover effects of capital stock, Kalimantan Spillover effects of capital stock, Java Spillover effects of capital stock, Eastern Indonesia Capital investment (loan interest -0.029*** repayments) (0.000) Spillover effects of capital investment, Sumatra Spillover effects of capital investment, Kalimantan Spillover effects of capital investment, Java Spillover effects of capital investment, Eastern Indonesia (0.006) -0.474 (0.502) 0.010*** (0.003) 0.282* (0.066) -0.695 (0.480) 0.203 (0.198) -2.110** (0.048) -0.024*** (0.001) -0.039 (0.151) -0.001 (0.938) -0.011 (0.618) 0.041** (0.028) 198 -3.056 -23.899** 7.786 Spillover effects of average years Constant of schooling, Sumatra (0.442) (0.013) (0.890) Spillover effects of average years 3.424** Observations 1,311 1,244 of schooling, Kalimantan (0.042) R-squared (adjusted) 0.489 0.555 -5.810 Number of id_292 178 178 Spillover effects of average years of schooling, Java (0.277) Hausman Test p-value 0.00 0.00 -1.143 Fixed/Random Effects Fixed Fixed Spillover effects of average years of schooling, Eastern Indonesia (0.280) pval in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 1 All variables (dependent and independent) are log-transformed using natural logarithms, except one given in percent terms. 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""Regional Inequality And The Process Of National Development." Economic Development And Cultural Change. Ying, L. 2003. "Understanding China‟s Recent Growth Experience: A Spatial Econometric Perspective." The Annals Of Regional Science, Vol. 37,Pp. 613-628. 203 Rural-Urban Linkage, Rural Road, and Livelihood. A Case Of Talun Kenas Village, North Sumatra, Indonesia Salmina Wati Ginting Department of Architecture University of Sumatera Utara Jl. Dr Mansyur Kampus USU Padang Bulan, Medan, Indonesia 20155 Email: salmina.wati@usu.ac.id, salminaginting@yahoo.com ABSTRACT: Rural-urban linkages include ‗spatial‘ linkages - flows of people, of goods, of money and other interactions between urban and rural areas. This paper aims to explore flow of people and flow of goods in and around Talun Kenas village North Sumatra Indonesia. Research was carried out as a ‗case study methodology‘ based on a questionnaires survey, an in-depth interviews with key informants, and a descriptive-qualitative analysis of commodity collecting and distributing of palm oil, the most important cash product in the area . These flows are analyzed using function of rural road as one of important aspects in rural-urban linkages. This paper shows there are two different rural roads as access for people and goods. The development of rural roads do not significantly affect rural‘s livelihood as rural roads only benefit big enterprises. Keywords: rural-urban linkage, rural roads, livelihood 1. INTRODUCTION Rondinelli (1985) classified typology of rural-urban linkages (RUL) as (1) physical linkages such as transport links and ecology dependence; (2) economic linkages such as pattern of flow of goods and capital; (3) population movement linkages that include migration patterns and travel patterns; (4) technology linkages such as the use of telecommunications services, provision of electricity, and the distribution network of irrigation networks; (5) social linkages such as patterns of social interaction and familial; (6) services providing linkages include road and transportation networks, financial institutions, education, training, and health services; (7) organizational linkages such as administrative, political and structural relationships which include administration, budget funding, and decision-making procedures. Furthermore Tacoli (1998) wrote that flowing is one of the main concern in RUL which includes flows of people, flow of goods, and flows of wastes, such as sewage, pollutants, etc.). Tacoli pays attention on small and intermediate towns existed between rural and urban that plays an important role in rural-urban relations. One important note is it is time to consider and discuss rural and urban area together as an integrated entity rather than as separate parts. Rural-urban linkages wherever point it is being viewed is related to infrastructure, one of which is roads. As Braun (2007) stressed infrastructure is an intermediary bridge between rural and urban, between agriculture and other sectors. Development of roads, especially rural roads, whether its quantity or quality will reduce time and cost. Good roads also affect the 204 activities of economic sectors such as selling and buying things, banking, credits, market, price, etc. Whether it is widely assumed that roads are important in improving the quality of life, it cannot be decided on what conditions and how the mechanism of development of village roads benefit all communities, the poor and non-poor (Hettige, 2006). Many cases show the development of rural roads would make villagers lose their main livelihoods and become poorer. This for example happens in agriculture remote villages where collection and distribution of agricultural produce rely on human wages. Development of new roads replaces porters into vehicles. Only rich farmers who could afford buying vehicles or a transportation entrepreneur benefit from the development of new roads. Especially for agricultural area, Braun wrote the importance of road infrastructure plan that is integrated with the management of agricultural. "Roads should not be planned and evaluated in isolation from agricultural investments-the road might lead to nowhere and vice versa" (p.17). Rural-urban linkages and the role of roads is considered successful if local villagers residing along the roads benefits by improving quality of life and better income. This paper will look at how the role and function of road in term of flow of people and goods. Schematic conceptual thinking is organized as follows: Figure 13 Conceptual Thinking 2. MATERIALS AND METHODS This paper is designed as a case study research. As other research methods, the method uses a case study to empirically investigate things by following a coherent scientific procedures, ranging from data collection, data recording, analysis of the data all of which can be either quantitative or qualitative (Owusu, 2005). Yin (2003) wrote a case study research needs to be done in situations where researchers want to find answers to the question "how" and "why", or in situations where researcher has very little control over the research object, or when the 205 research focus is on contemporary phenomenon of contextual . One of the important points of this method is the importance of obtaining and analyzing information from informants (research informants). According to Yin, the truth is relative and highly dependent on the perspective of each person. Case study research has been classified in various typologies. The research we did refer to Yin (1998) which divides a case study into three categories: explanatory, exploratory, and descriptive. We use a descriptive method that is "based on descriptive questions, though in reality it is selective based on study objectives". Case study research specifically chose the location (site) and also special informants who are expected to bring a better understanding of the framework of the research conducted. In this case, location must have "goods" such as agricultural commodities, industrial goods, or natural resources to see the "flow of goods" as one of the two selected variables (other is flow of people). Proximity also affects the selection of site because linkages between rural and urban areas are generally divided between "less than 50/60 kilometers" and "more than 50/60 kilometers". This comes from some previous studies showing a striking character of the linkages in different proximity (see for example Sugiana, 2005, for cases in Java and Van Leeuwen, 2010, for case in Europe). Research was conducted in Talun Kenas village, Kecamatan STM Hilir (district), Kabupaten Deli Serdang (region), North Sumatra province. STM Hilir district is one of the largest palm oil producers in North Sumatra province. Talun Kenas village is the capital of STM Hilir district where most work as farmers (palm oil, cocoa, bananas). The village has four hamlets and is known since the late 1990s as a collecting place from surrounding plantations. Nowadays there are seven large palm oil warehouses (gudang kelapa sawit) which holds up to 700 tons of palm oil every day. The activities take place every day involving hundreds of local wages who work as administrators, the weighing, loading crews, drivers, helpers, finance desks, and else. One of the largest warehouses has 22 big trucks and dozens of workers with a capacity of approximately 100 tons of palm oil per day. The population of Talun Kenas village is 2,681 with 669 households, while the number of STM Hilir district population is 31,547 with 11,000 households. As the capital district, Talun Kenas village provides facilities including one Junior High School and one Senior High School, both are private and not government owned. It has three doctors and one midwife, one mosque, one smaller mosque called Surau, six churches, as well as one market that only open once in a week on Saturday. Talun Kenas village is around 35 kilometers to Medan, the province‟s capital, which can be easily reached in less than one hour. Access from village into Medan is generally through a small town called Deli Tua. It enters Medan through Titi Kuning area also known as Jalan Brigjend Katamso (Brigjend Katamso Road). 206 Figure 14 Research Site Our teams spread 75 questionnaires to households of Talun Kenas village over the age of 21 years and asked questions that can describe the flow of people and goods (in this case palm oil agricultural produce). Questions were classified into four groups: (1) livelihood (job/profession) and diversification of livelihood; (2) the management and trade of agricultural products; (3) The most frequently visited places within one month and for what purposes; and (4) the response to Medan: how often and for what purposes people go to Medan. We also conduct in-depth interviews with selected key informants to get more detailed information. Respondent‟s profile is presented in Table 12 below. 207 Table 12 Respondent’s Profile 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 1. Flow of People Field observations and the results of questionnaires show that flow of people going from Talun Kenas village to Medan through Jalan Besar Deli Tua which passes a small town called Deli Tua. The small town has population of 5.091 inhabitants. Deli Tua has a long history well known since the 16th century as part of a tobacco plantation owned by Dutch government. Deli Tua becomes an intermediate between Talun Kenas village and Medan. As Tacoli (1998) stated rural-urban linkage is always associated with role and function of small town or medium-sized town located between the village and the larger city. One of the most popular location is Deli Tua market which is open daily and located right on Besar Deli Tua Road. This market is center of buying and selling for most residents in surrounding areas including the Talun Kenas villagers. Road from Talun Kenas village to Medan passing through Deli Tua is illustrated in Figure 15 below. Deli Tua is an intermediary place where Talun Kenas villagers fulfill their needs without spending more energy, time, and expensive transportation costs to reach Medan. 208 Figure 15 Deli Tua-between Talun Kenas and Medan Most of Talun Kenas villagers fulfill their needs outside of village by visiting Deli Tua, not Medan or other town. The reason for traveling outside the village is presented in Table 2 and Table 3 below. Table 13 Place/Town Most Visited in Last One Month Other: Binjai, Tanjung Morawa, Perbaungan 209 Table 14 Reasons to Travel to Most Frequently Visited Place/Town Agriculture stuff: buy fertilizer, seed, or farm equipments Table 13 shows the flow of people out of Talun Kenas village is mostly to Deli Tua. People accessed Deli Tua and Medan through Besar Deli Tua Road as shown in Figure 4 above. This road is not the only one access to Medan. People could reach it by other route via Tanjung Morawa (see section 2 Flow of Goods). Table 14 shows 44 percent of respondents answered "shop" when visiting Deli Tua and only 18.5 percent go for working and studying. Shopping is major reason for buying stuff for stall/store, fashion shopping, food cullinary, and buy electronic stuffs like television or mobile phone. Deli Tua also provides educational facilities, especially high school because of the lack of schools in Talun Kenas village. Table 13 and Table 14 prove Talun Kenas village as STM Hilir district‟s capital could not function as service provider. In Table 4 our team asked respondents what they do when visiting Medan? Approximately 20 percent of respondents answered they rarely go to Medan and some of them said never go to Medan in last one month. It is noted that 27 respondents or 36 percent are farmers. Thirty eight respondents or 51 percent said the reason going to Medan is "shopping" and "pleasure" and only 5 percent go for routine work. An in-depth interviews showed that most of Talun Kenas villagers, especially those with a vehicle and are not farmers often travel to Medan to shopping and entertainment centers such as cafe, karaoke and discos. Some young males attend universities in Medan and traveling commute by motorcycle. Another traveler to Medan are banana traders who sell their crops directly to consumers in Medan and do not sell it to agents or middlemen. People who work as farmers generally do not often visit Medan and just go no further than Deli Tua. 210 Table 15 What to do when visiting Medan? Other: health facilities, taking palm oil to plants, educational facilities, etc. Table 16 How Many Times Visiting Medan in Last One Month? No. Frequently Amount (N) Percent (%) 1 Once = 1 15 20 2 Twice = 2 12 16 3 Three Times = 3 2 2.5 4. Four Times = 4 4 5 5. Five Times = 5 2 2.5 6. >5 8 11 7 Not Exactly 17 23 8 NA (Never) 15 20 Total 75 100 2. Flow of Goods STM Hilir district and STM Hulu district is the largest producer of palm oil in Deli Serdang region. Based on Deli Serdang Regency in Figures, Central Bureau of Statistics 2013, STM Hilir district produces about 55,000 tons of palm oil per hectare and 656 tons of rubber per hectare. Dusun 4 Kampung Dalam which is one of hamlet in Talun Kenas village built seven warehouses for collecting palm oil. The warehouses are owned by businessmen who have factories scattered in Medan, Perbaungan, Kisaran, and Tebing Tinggi. Total TBS (Tandan Buah Segar = fresh fruit bunches) collected in all warehouses is approximately 700 tons per day. 211 Table 17 Agricultural Production In STM Hilir District Source: Deli Serdang Regency in Figures, Central Bureau of Statistics, 2013 Warehouses are the most visited place when selling palm oil. Some farmers sell to agents or middlemen who go directly to farms. These agents provide a small truck to transport palm oil into warehouses at Dusun 4 Kampung Dalam. Based on respondent‟s profile in Tabel 1, our team asked 47 respondents who own agricultural land Where to sell crops? Respondent‟s answers are presented in Table 7 below. Table 18 Sale Location of Agricultural Products Cocoa and banana farmers do not sale their agricultural products to warehouses. They carried crops to the one and only market in Talun Kenas village or bring them to Tanjung Morawa or Medan. Some farmers sell to agents or middlemen who set up temporary stalls on the roadside near market. This usually happens every Saturday when villagers from upland district come to market. Figure 16 Agent or Middleman Buying Cocoa From Farmers Rich banana farmers who own large agriculture land sell bananas directly to buyers in Jakarta. It takes two days trip with a truck. Farmers do not sell to middlemen or wholesalers due to more profitable price. 212 Another interesting point about flow of goods and palm oil warehouses is their route which is not used for flow of people. Road from Dusun 4 Kampung Dusun into Medan was a small non-asphalt rural road but was developed in 1996 when one or two first warehouses was built. This road does not pass through Deli Tua but Tanjung Morawa. The distance from Talun Kenas village to Tanjung Morawa is approximately 19.2 kilometers. By looking at the schematic map below it can be seen that route for the flow of goods is different compare to road for flow of people. A Titi Kuning (Medan), B Deli Tua, C Talun Kenas, D Tanjung Morawa, E Perbaungan, F Tebing Tinggi Figure 17 Roads for Flow of People (C-B-A) and Flow of Goods (C-D-E-F) Due to high activities along Jalan Talun Kenas-Tanjung Morawa, the road is broken and hollow. When the dry season comes, dust and dirty would be a daily disturbingii. It can be said that villagers who live along the road do not obtain any benefit from the economic activities at warehouses except that quality of environment is getting worse from day to day. Talun Kenas village serves as producer or provider of palm oil natural resources as well as collector (or: collecting and distributing place) for other towns. Several studies showed ruralurban linkage is not always mutually beneficial for both towns. Mwaura (2004) researches in Thika village in Ndakaini region functioned as water supplier for entire Nairobi gained nothing but exploitation. Villagers remain in poverty including residents who live along road connecting Thika and Nairobi. Nairobi River has been polluted due to the activity of major surrounding cities. There is always a question: Why palm oil farmers do not sell directly to the plants or factories outside Talun Kenas village if there is a good road network and the price offered is obviously better? An in-depth interviews conducted by the research team with one of the residents who in the 1990s worked as an middleman, said selling directly to the factory is very difficult. Mr. Mustafa who now works as a religion teacher said all warehouses in Talun Kenas village 213 freeing farmers to sell products to anyone: agents or middlemen, warehouses, or directly to plants. But selling outside village means hiring trucks and passing through a number of procedures which is complicated and time wasting. First, Mr. Mustafa said, farmers who want to bring crops directly to the factory must take care of some sort of letter of permission from SPSI (Serikat Pekerja Seluruh Indonesia = Indonesian Workers Union) and pay some money. Mr. Mustafa sold palm oil by transporting to Perbaungan faced barriers and constraints such as the dismissal of many posts asking for money. Second, before reaching Perbaungan, a number of police officers detained truck, investigated driver and helper for documents. All documents are fine but Mr. Mustafa had to spend about four million rupiah to remove the truck and bailed the driver and helper. It took at least 2-3 days. That experience makes Mr. Mustafa chose to sell his crops at warehouses in Talun Kenas village instead of losing material and time. Besides, continued Mr Mustafa, all warehouses established a relatively competitive prices. Terms and conditions is generally very easy. Warehouses in Talun Kenas village accept a poor quality of TBS (Tandan Buah Segar = fresh fruit bunches) e.g small size crops with lower price that would not be accepted in big plants or factories. The plants will reject them. There is one important thing that makes almost all of farmers sell their agricultural products at warehouses. Farmers who need cash immediately borrow from warehouse owners with guarantee of payment from their crops. This debt can grow bigger vastly and accumulate so farmers tied down to the warehouse owner and causes heavier debt. This weak bargaining position is another reason why farmers sell their crops at warehouses inside the village rather than sell it directly to the factory. The situation is quite different from coffee farmers in Tanggamus, Lampung, which is one of the largest coffee producer in Lampung Province. Linkage between coffee farmers was limited and barred by the role of middlemen so that farmers could not directly access buyers. When KPELiii came then farmers can finally deal with first circle buyers. They can even be able to sell directly to large coffee mills such as PT Neslte Indonesia, Pabrik Kopi Diamond, hotels, and restaurants. Better bargaining position has increased selling price by 300 percent and significantly improve farmer‟s quality of life, economically and socially (Tarigan, 2005). Development of rural roads around plantations has NOT entirely given positive impact to villagers. When rural roads were poor, land owner hire wages for labour, men and women. They harvested and transported crops outside plantation by putting load on shoulder or using a non-motor vehicle called gerobak. Rural road development has changed transportation mode from human labour into trucks or pickups. Porters lose their jobs. Similar situation occurs in rubber plantation in Bengkulu where villagers once important porters. Since the village was built and rural roads were developed, only rich farmers and big transport providers are taking advantage while the porter lost their jobs (Hettige, 2006). Transport provider, according to Hettige, take advantage from all situations: a bad or good rural roads. If roads are poor then competition is relatively weak, they monopolize and dictate 214 lower price and service. If rural roads are good, they controlled almost all lines of transportation mode ranging from transporting agricultural products, renting a vehicle for traveling and monopolize public transportation. 4. CONCLUSION Land owner is not really a farmer. One of the most crucial seeing rural-urban linkage analysis is changes of livelihoods. As Tacoli (2002, p.5) wrote ―.....the best understanding of the importance of rural-urban linkages and of their significance for economic, social and cultural change in low-income nations comes from detailed analysis of the livelihood strategies of poor and non-poor groups‖. The statement comes in line with our in-depth interviewed with Kepala Dusun 4 Kampung Dalam (head of hamlet) Mr. Sadakata Ginting, showed that generally population of Talun Kenas village work as farmers and own small or large agricultural land, but it should be noted that only few rely on land for their economic livelihood. ―Nowadays, when big palm oil warehouses are built here since late of 1990s, most of us work as driver, helper, administrator or wages for them, said Mr. Ginting. We do own land but agriculture is a heavy-expensive process before you could earn money, he added. Fertilizer and seed should be bought in Deli Tua and cost a lot‖. Mr. Ginting plants corn (2 acres), palm oil (10 acres), and cocoa (5 acres) also works at palm oil warehouse (gudang kelapa sawit) near his home to increase income. There are two different route for flow of people and flow of goods. Flow of people concentrates on Jalan Besar Deli Tua. Talun Kenas villagers fulfill all their need at this small town including buying agricultural stuff and access for educational services. Villagers, especially work as farmers rarely visit Medan even road is in a good condition and will spend less than one hour to reach. Deli Tua, for most of villagers is a place for shopping, working, pleasure, and studying. The flow of goods takes place on Jalan Talun Kenas-Tanjung Morawa. Along of this road has built seven big palm oil warehouses have been built with up to 700 tons fresh palm oil bunches collected per day. This road leads to Tanjung Morawa, Perbaungan, Tebing Tinggi, and Kisaran where several palm oil plants and factories are located. The bustling- transporttrading activities along the road does not significance affect villagers‟ economic of life except that some people got jobs there. Farmers do not use this road to directly sell crops at plants or factories outside village even at a better price. This road gives advantage to warehouses owners and transportation providers only. Rural roads development is NOT a guarantee for a better life of the villagers. In area where harvesting and transporting crops is done by human labor, trucks and pickups motor replace mankind thereby making porters lose their source of income. Since rural roads do not effectively increase economic life of poor villagers, we suggest a livelihood diversification which is related to palm oil product as main commodity e.g. home and mid-class industry using less qualified fresh bunches designed as marketable things. Or, development of tourism area due to potential forest and plantations and conservation area at district‟s upland. This is not a hard dream because good roads are already there. 215 5. REFERENCES Braun. Joachim von. 2007. “Rural-Urban Linkages for Growth, Employment, and Poverty Reduction”. Ethiopian Economic Association Fifth International Conference on the Ethiopian Economy. Keynote. United Nations Conference Center: Addis Ababa Hettige. Hemamala. 2006. When Do Rural Roads Benefit The Poor and How? Asian Development Bank: Philippines Leeuwen. Eveline S. van. 2010. Urban-Rural Interactions. Towns as Focus Points in Rural Development. Springer-Verlag: Berlin Heidelberg Owusu. George. 2005. “The role of District Capitals in Regional Development: Linking small Towns, Rural-Urban Linkages and Decentralisation in Ghana”. International Development Planning Review, 27. pp. 59-90. Rondinelli. A. Dennis. 1985. Applied Methods of Regional Analysis: The Spatial Dimensions of Development Policy. West-view Press: Boulder and London Sugiana. Kawik. 2001. Programmed Performance Evaluation Report: Poverty Alleviation through Rural Urban Linkages, UNDP: Jakarta Sugiana. Kawik. 2005. “Keterkaitan Desa Kota di Indonesia”, in Budhy T. Soegijoko, et al. Bunga Rampai Pembangunan Kota Indonesia dalam Abad 21. Yayasan Soegijanto Soegojoko and URDI: Jakarta Tacoli. Cecilia. 1998. “Rural-Urban Interactions: A guide to the Literature”. Environment and Urbanization 10. pp. 147-166. Tacoli. Cecilia. 2002. Changing Rural-Urban Interactions in Sub-Saharan Africa and Their Impact on Livelihoods: A Summary. IIED: London. Tarigan. Antonius. 2005. “Kabupaten Tanggamus: Pengembangan Ekonomi Lokal”, in Budhy T. Soegijoko, et al. Bunga Rampai Pembangunan Kota Indonesia dalam Abad 21. Yayasan Soegijanto Soegojoko and URDI: Jakarta Yin. Robert K. 1998. “The Abridged Version of Case Study Research: Design and Method”. Bickman, L. and Rog, D.J. (eds.). Applied Social Research Methods. Sage Publications: London. pp. 229-259. Yin. Robert K. 1994. Case Study Research: Design and Methods (Second Edition). Sage Publications: London Badan Pusat Statistik. 2013. Kecamatan STM Hilir dalam Angka. BPS: Medan Badan Pusat Statistik. 2013. Kabupaten Deli Serdang dalam Angka. BPS: Medan http://www.pemkomedan.go.id/selayang_sejarah.php, downloaded on October 2, 2014 http://m.beritasumut.com/view/Politik---Pemerintahan/9540/Bupati-Amri-TambunanJangan-Tinggalkan-Bom-Waktu.html, downloaded on October 1, 2014 216 KPEL or Kemitraan bagi Pembangunan Ekonomi Lokal = Partnership for Local Economic Development, is an approach stimulating economic activity through public-private partnerships between governmental and privates, thereby building the linkage between economic actors with the market. Began in 1999 with the name Parul = Poverty Alleviation thru Rural Urban Linkage, since 2001 renamed KPEL and has reached 18 districts across Indonesia, a collaboration between UNDP, UN Habitat, and Bappenas. Visit www.kpel.or.id for more info on KPEL 217 Analyzing User Perspective For Toll Road Service Quality Improvement (Case Study Of Surabaya Metropolitan Toll Road) Herry T. Zuna and Argasadha Retapradana Directorate General of Highways, Ministry of Public Works Pattimura No 20, Kebayoran Baru - Jakarta Email: hatezet@gmail.com ABSTRACT : Toll road user expectation on the quality of service as part of sustainable development will have to be determined by the government as regulator. Normally, there are two main indicators considered to measure toll road performance, namely, physical condition and travel time which related to traffic flow. Even not yet defined as an important factor for toll road performance, user‘s perspective has been widely involved as a measure and tool to improve service quality in many sector. In this article, authors try to analyze toll road service attributes priority along with the strategy for toll road operator in order to enhance its quality and regain users satisfaction. Using Importance Performance Analysis, authors reveal 14 attributes which should be prioritized,. Nine of them need significant improvement to achieve users expectation, namely smoothness of road surface condition, no traffic congestion, riding safety, toll gate facilities, fast response of emergency unit, availability of emergency unit, ease to get emergency unit, accident handling, and road maintenance . Keywords: toll road, performance, service quality, user perspective, importance performance analysis 1. INTRODUCTION Mobility is fundamental for the economic growth, especially in developing countries. Every economic activity involves both human trips and freight movement. Most of mobility in developing country, specifically Indonesia, highly depends on road infrastructure. This means, road infrastructure has a significant impact on development of a country, specifically on the nation‟s competitiveness (Basri, 2008). Along with the growth of population and economy, trips generated on road continue to grow and it is necessary to increase road capacity to support movement and economic activity. Surabaya, the second biggest city in Indonesia, has become one of the busiest cities in Southeast Asia, and is still continue to grow. With lack of adequate public transportation, citizens of Surabaya Metropolitan use private vehicles to take a trip especially for business trip. The number of private vehicles operating in Surabaya has already reached 3 million units, with 500.000 of them are private cars (Government of Surabaya, 2013). Moreover, Surabaya is the node of logistic activities in East Java, as the existing of International Port of Tanjung Perak. In order to increase capacity of the existing roads, the Government of Indonesia have built 4 toll roads in Surabaya Metropolitan Area. These toll roads connect Surabaya to other surrounding cities and transportation outlets (Juanda International Airport and Tanjung Perak Seaport). Not only do these toll roads give alternative for route selection, they also support logistic activities so freight transport can easily reach the port. Toll road is a part of highway network for which a fee (or toll) is assessed for passage (Government of Indonesia, 2005) and is managed by the Ministry of Public Works. Toll roads provide altenative for travellers as well as providing better service than non-toll roads. Better service in this case, mostly refers to shorter travel time, by which using toll roads travellers can easily reach their destinations faster than using non-toll roads because normally 218 toll roads allow faster travel speed. Benefit in term of reduced travel time considers as the main function and the most important service attributed to toll roads (Susilowati & Somenahalli, 2008; Senbil & Kitamura, 2004). In addition, toll roads also offer comfortable journey (Basri, 2008). Furthermore, the outcome of toll road development is to reduce traffic density on non-toll roads, as it gives more route choices for road users. However, Choocharukul et al (2004) have proved that traffic density is not the single measurement for road performance, road users also concern with other attributes. In order to maintain quality of toll road, Ministry of Public Work (2005) has issued Minimum Service Standard which regulated on Ministry of Public Work Regulation No. 392 Year 2005. This regulation sets the quality of 6 service substances, namely road surface condition, average travel speed, accessibility, mobility, safety and emergency unit. These indicators have been set to protect toll road users from any risk such as accident (OECD, 2001). Moreover, these indicators also function to assure implememtation of the customers rights which have been set by the Government of Indonesia (1999) on Undang-Undang Republik Indonesia No. 8 Year 1999. Hartanto and Susilo (2001) stated 5 main indicators mostly used by Government to measure road performance, namely International Roughness Index Value (IRI), Bridge Condition Mark Value (BCM), Net Present Value (NPV), Vehicle Operational Cost (VOC), and average travel speed. Although the standard has to be accommodated by three stakeholders, namely regulator, operator and customers, mostly the measurement is on the operator orientation, which has very limited involvement of customer perspective. In contrast, some countries such as India, Uganda, United Kingdom, Finland, have involved user satisfaction survey as a tool and an indicator to measure road performance (National Highways Authority of India, 2006; Crossroads, 2012; Government of Karnataka, 2004; Ramdas et al, 2007, OECD, 2001). Involvement of customers in service providing process, known as service co-creation. Customer are involved and inseparable in the value-creating process as a co-creator role, so they play can assist provider to set a standard of a service they should perceive (Gronroos, 2011). Perception of the customers defines level of service quality (Cronin and Taylor, 1994). The main function of defining service quality level is to reach customer satisfaction. Customer satisfaction is defined as how the users feel after receiving a service, by comparing performance of a service with their expectation before receiving the service (Kotler, 1995). As the main function of toll road is to provide a better service than non-toll road, it's supposed to give better satisfaction level to road users compared when they use non-toll road. The theory of customer satisfaction has led into paradigm of disconfirmation. Theory of disconfirmation stated by measuring the gap between perceived service and expected service (Zeithaml, 1990). There are three types of disconfirmation. First, positive disconfirmation, which occurs when the level of perceived service is better than expected. Second, negative disconfirmation, which occurs when the level of perceived service is less than expected. Third, zero disconfirmation, which occurs when the level of perceived service is equal to expected level. 219 Figure 1. Delivering results (Anton and Perouhoff, 2002) Disconfirmation theory was occurred because there is a gap between customer and operator. The process of service delivery mainly involving two main stakeholders, namely operator and customer. Interaction between both of them create a loop of service quality, which define service level of each stakeholder for measuring service quality. Figure 2. Service quality loop (European Committee for Standardisation, 2002) The gap may occur on many circumstances. Zeithaml et al (1990) have reveal 5 gaps which may occur on service delivery process. The gap may occur on internal process in the firm, such as gap between service standard and service delivery, or even costumers misinterpretation or misunderstanding prior to service deliverance, which influence the service perceived by customer. On the other hand, gap may occur on customer viewpoint. Service quality received by customer did not meet their expectation. Generally, researchers focus on the gap on customer viewpoint, which mean the gap of service quality expected and service quality perceived. This gap considered as the basic disconfirmation / gap which can be revealed, after this gap has been discovered, operator should analyze which system has gone wrong. 220 Figure 3 Service gap diagram (Zeithaml, 1990) In the case of toll road provision in many country, including Indonesia, government take part on this sector as a regulator, which have influenced on service quality targeted by operator as the standard have been set on government rules as mention above. Different with other service sector, as an infrastructure, toll road have no competitive market. National Government is the only stakeholder authorize to provide this service, with the support of private party as operator. Monopoly situation of toll road provision have made the service quality based on customers perspective never considered as important, resulting dissatisfaction of toll road service. According to the description above, to maintain customers satisfaction is the main objective of service provision. Therefore, studies about service quality of toll road based on user perception is necessary to be conducted, as has been done on other sector such as public transport, airline, education, hospital (Randheer et al, 2012; Aydin & Yildrim, 2012; Ahklagi et al, 2012; Purcarea et al, 2013). The main objectives of this paper are to: 1. Propose service quality attributes of toll road which need to be prioritized based on importance level. 2. Evaluate toll road service attributes performance based on user satisfaction level. 3. Propose strategy on service quality improvement to enhance customers satisfaction. 221 2. MATERIALS AND METHODS This research was conducted in Surabaya Metropolitan Area, part of Gerbangkertasusila Megapolitan. Five toll road sections operating in this metropolitan area are discussed in this article: Surabaya-Madura toll road Surabaya-Gempol toll road Surabaya-Gresik toll road Surabaya-Mojokerto toll road Waru-Juanda International Airport toll road This research used BPJT's primary data collected in December 2013. In order to obtain users perception data, 300 questionnaires were distributed for these 5 toll roads with different number of questionnaires for each toll road depending on its traffic density. Questionnaire was designed to contain questions about respondent characteristics, travel characteristics, and quality of toll road service attributes. For quality of service section, respondents were asked to give their perception about the importance level and evaluate the performance of each toll road attributes, using 5-point linkert scale as shown in the following: 1 = not important/not satisfied 2 = less important/less satisfied 3 = fair important/enough satisfied 4 = important/satisfied 5 = very important/very satisfied There are many ways to evaluate service quality level, including Importance-Performance Analysis suggested by Martilla and James (1977). IPA is one of popular tools which allows service provider to better understand their customers, so they can perform the proper service to their customers. IPA forms a matrix using importance level and performance level of service quality. IPA matrix is divided by importance mean value and performance mean value into 4 quadrant, which are generally: Quadrant 1: high importance – high performance, called “maintain performance” Quadrant 2: high importance – low performance, called “focus for improvement” Quadrant 3: low importance – low performance, called “low priority” Quadrant 4: low importance – high performanc, called “reduce wasted performance” Using this quadrant, firm can use the strategy effectively and efficiently to improve their overall performance level. This analysis shows that not all attributes should be improved, because some attributes have little influence on user satisfaction such as attributes on quadrant 3 and 4. It gives recommendation on which attributes should be on priority for improvement and which should be on waiting list or not be improved at all. 222 with = mean of performance value = mean of importance value K = number of attributes Figure 4. Matrix of Importance- Performance (Martilla and James, 1977) 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION The discussion in this paper is divided into two categories. First, discussion on respondent characteristics along with trips characteristics. Second, discussion on importance and performance level of each service attributes using Importance Performance Analysis. The respondent data collected from questionnaire is presented on Table 1 as the basic information of respondents. From the table below, it shows that most of the respondents work as driver and that the toll fee was paid by their boss/firm which explains even that their income is less than Rp 5 millions per month, increase of travel cost is not of their concern. 223 Table 1. Respondent Characteristics Age Under 25 25-34 37% 35-44 41% 45-54 23% 55+ Education Job Monthly Salary 3% 6% Junior high school or less 34% High school 47% Higher education 19% Driver 68% Non professional 12% Expert and professional 20% Less than 5 millions Rupiah 93% 5 millions – 10 millions Rupiah 6% More than 10 millions Rupiah 1% Table 2 shows trip characteristic of the respondent. Most of vehicles operated on this toll road is passenger vehicles, with a small portion of freight vehicles. Most of the respondents use toll road for business / work trips on daily basis. From discussion above, it can be said that trips generated on this toll road are describing urban activity, with some portion of logistic activity because the existence of seaport. The data also shown that most of the respondents think that by using toll road they can reach their destination faster than using non-toll roads. This can be evident of many researches which stated that reduced travel time is one of the main benefit and attractions of toll road of which function is to facilitate trips (Senbil and Kitamura, 2004). While travel time is very dependent on level of service or traffic density, still road users seem to expect toll road as a solution to get out of traffic congestion. With the minimum travel speed of 60 km/hour (Government of Indonesia, 2005), toll road is supposed to give benefit in term of shorter travel time compared to non-toll road. 224 Table 2. Trip Characteristics Type of vehicle Frequency of usage Trip purpose Reason of usage Passenger 83% Freight 17% 4 times a week or more 50% 2-3 times a week 30% 1 time a week or less 20% Work/business 86% Leisure 13% Others 1% Travel time saving 91% Safety benefit 3% Comfort benefit 7% Other reason 2% Table 3 shows the importance and performance value for each attributes. Based on customers perception, all attributes have high value of importance level. The lowest is call center service with value of 4.04, and the highest is road comfort with value of 4.91. This mean, all attributes have importance value more than 4, which is considered as important. Next, customers evaluate service quality based on their perspectives. The highest performance value is honest toll gate operators, with value of 3.81, while the lowest performance value is ornaments, with value of 2.84. With the average performance value is 3.43, service quality of toll road delivered with fair performance. However, even only few attributes served along with disappointment, all of them cannot maintain expectation level from customers. All attributes show negative gap value. With the highest gap value is “no traffic congestion” attributes, with gap of -1.7. It is contrast with the statement before said that travel time benefit was the main reason of using toll road. 225 Table 3. Importance Performance Gap Value of Toll Road Attributes No Attributes Importance Performance Gap 1 road comfort 4.91 3.61 -1.3 2 smoothness of road surface 4.68 3.42 -1.26 3 road marking 4.32 3.48 -0.84 4 road lighting 4.61 3.29 -1.32 5 road sign 4.51 3.74 -0.77 6 ornaments 4.09 2.87 -1.22 7 tree 4.14 2.94 -1.2 8 emergency lane 4.42 3.27 -1.15 9 road cleanliness 4.5 3.74 -0.76 10 no traffic congestion 4.88 3.18 -1.7 11 riding safety 4.85 3.36 -1.49 12 sight distance 4.39 3.67 -0.72 13 toll gates facilities 4.55 3.35 -1.2 14 Call center service 4.04 3.41 -0.63 15 information display 4.14 3.63 -0.51 16 fast response of emergency unit 4.56 3.31 -1.25 17 availability of emergency unit 4.62 3.27 -1.35 18 ease to get emergency unit 4.66 3.3 -1.36 19 accident handling 4.73 3.38 -1.35 20 road maintenance 4.69 3.41 -1.28 4.2 3.65 -0.55 22 security from crime 4.54 3.47 -1.07 23 friendly toll gates operator 4.37 3.69 -0.68 24 honest toll gates operator 4.44 3.81 -0.63 25 toll gates operator performance 4.56 3.55 -1.01 4.49 3.43 21 accuracy of information Grand Mean Based on table 3 and discussion above, IPA matrix was formed. However, the strategy for each quadrant should be re-defined, since there are unique characteristics revealed from the discussion of IPA result. There are 2 conditions which caused this step needs to be done. First, mean of importance value is of 4.49 with no attributes have importance value below 4, 226 which mean every attributes considered as important even plotted on quadrant below . Second, The gap between performance value and importance value is negative, so that even plotted above , the performance of the attributes still not yet satisfy customers. Because of this 2 reasons, IPA matrix strategy can be defined as follows: Figure 5. IPA matrix strategy for this case IPA Matrix was formed based on table 3. IPA matrix devides 4 quadrants using x-axis with value of 4.49 and y-axis with value of 3.43. IPA matrix can be seen on figure 6. Figure 6. IPA Matrix of Surabaya Toll Roads Figure 6 illustrated plotting of service quality attributes based on customer perception. The matrix shows 5 attributes plotted on quadrant 1, namely (1) road comfort, (5) road sign, (22) 227 security from crime, and (25) toll gates operator performance. These attributes have very high importance value and good performance, but not yet reach customer expectation. There are 9 attributes plotted on quadrant 2, namely (2) smoothness of road surface, (10) no traffic congestion, (11) riding safety, (13) toll gate facilities, (16) fast response of emergency unit, (17) availability of emergency unit, (18) ease to get emergency unit, (19) accident handling, and (20) road maintenance. These attributes have very high importance but still aren't delivered with satisfied performance, so they need great improvement. With the importance value below (standard of importance), quadrant 3 and 4 are considered less important, but the quality still need to be improved. Quadrant 3 contain 5 attributes, namely (4) road lighting, (6) ornaments, (7) tree, (8) emergency lane, (14) call center service. While quadrant 4 contain 6 attributes, namely (3) road marking, (12) sight distance, (15) information display, (21) accuracy of information, (23) friendly toll gates operator, and (24) honest toll gates operator. As stated before, both of quadrant 3 and 4 are still need to be improved, because still considered as important, though operator need to concern on quadrant 1 and 2 first. Five attributes on quadrant 3 need significant improvement later, while in contrast, 6 attributes on quadrant 4 only need slight improvement. Table 4. Attributes grouping based on IPA matrix Quadrant 1 Quadrant 2 Quadrant 3 Quadrant 4 road comfort smoothness of road surface road lighting road marking road sign no traffic congestion ornaments sight distance road cleanliness riding safety tree information display security from crime toll gates facilities emergency lane accuracy of information toll gates operator performance fast response of emergency unit Call center service friendly toll gates operator honest toll gates operator availability of emergency unit easy to get emergency unit accident handling road maintenance 4. CONCLUSION Based on discussion, IPA technique is useful to give recommendation on service quality improvement. However, the strategy provided by IPA Matrix should be re-defined based on result of the survey. The strategy can be different with certain circumstances. The analysis reveal 14 attributes with high level of expectations, with 5 of them on quadrant 1 only need slight improvement to attain customer satisfaction, while 9 others need great 228 improvement to reach user expectation. The operator of toll road in Surabaya still need to enhance the quality of other attributes, if the ideal condition of priority attributes have been met. The strategy can be an effort to improve service and competitiveness of toll roads, also to maintain customer satisfaction. To obtain more recommendation from customers, it is necessary to ask open question to obtain more wide answer and recommendation. In the next research, author will analyze toll road service quality attribute from operator perspective and government perspective. Comparison between three stakeholders will be analyzed to see the coherence of toll road attributes. In the end of the research, comprehensive service attributes can be proposed. 5. 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Willingness To Pay For Expressway. EES 2004: Experiments in Economic Science – New Approaches to Solving Real-World Problems. Susilawati, Taylor M., and Somenahalli, S. 2008. “Travel Time Variability and Reliability (The South Road Corridor Study Case)”, Conference of Australia Institute Transport Research CAITR 2008. Zeithaml, V A., Parasuraman A., and Malhotra A. 1990. Delivering Quality Service: Balancing Customer Perception and Expectation. New York: Free Press. 230 Sustainability of Infrastructures In Urban Areas: Is Road Pricing a StandAlone Policy? Muhammad Nanang Prayudyantoa, Ofyar Z. Taminb, R. Driejanac, Dailumamid a GIZ-SUTIP Senior Advisor, Jakarta; Email: nanang@sutip.org b Post Graduate School of Department of Civil Engineering, Institute Technology Bandung (ITB), Bandung;Email: ofyar@trans.si.itb.ac.id c Post Graduate School of Department of Environment, Institute Technology Bandung (ITB), Bandung, Indonesia; Email: driejana@yahoo.com d Deputy Director for Land Transport, The National Development Planning (Bappenas); Email: dail@bappenas.go.id ABSTRACT : There have been intensive discussions about sustainable transportation in Indonesia. In tune with the issue of climate change and the decline in the ability of providing fuel, this paper is intended to look at the perspective of sustainable infrastructure development from the stand point of air emissions and energy consumption. Data is built from early studies in Jakarta with a quick look at the components of BRT mass transit, parking management and traffic restrictions based on the imposition of charging private vehicles. Paper uses a tiered transport models: an alternative filtering stage, stage 4 step transportation model, the financial evaluation stage, the environment and mobility. Conclusion drawn is that the frenzied application of road pricing will not be able to run itself but must be shared with the role of rapid acceleration BRT mass transit services and restrictions on private vehicle parking spaces in the town center. Keywords: sustainable transport, road pricing, parking, public transport. 1. INTRODUCTION The option to put the transportation demand management strategies (TDM) for specific city is a difficult choice, requiring in-depth study, the focused evaluation and clear policies and strong direction. To control a very large number of vehicles where public transport is very limited and shortage of available land, is part of the dynamics of TDM policies in some sort of metropolitan like Jakarta. Jakarta has set a policy framework for transportation services in the medium term Macro Transportation Pattern (PTM) based on the development of mass public transport, restrictions on private vehicles as well as the intensification of urban rail transport services. 1.1 The Jakarta BRT In Jakarta, the first 12.9 km initial closed system BRT (BRT) corridor began operating on January 15, 2004, which starts from Blok M bus terminal and ends at Kota Station (from north to south on the main road corridors) operated by Trans Jakarta company. The Jakarta city government provided all the initial construction costs for the infrastructure and the buses. In the first year of operation (2004), 15.9 million passengers travelled by this system (approximately 44,000 passengers per day or 3,600 persons/hour/two directions). 231 The average BRT load factor during the week is 91% and during the weekend is 75%, with the highest load factor during the evening peak on weekdays, up to 143% (BP Trans Jakarta BRT, 2005).The completionof 15corridors are expected to be finished by the year of 2015, while by the end of 2010 only 10 corridors are already in place. BRT is a stage to be developed withrail-based mass transit systems. Modernization of railway transport commuter train improvement starts with Jabotabek railway and forwarded by rail to the airport and widening lanes from jakarta to Cikarang, western part of Jakarta. 1.2 The Jakarta Road Pricing To tackle congestion in Jakarta, since 1992 has begun steps to limit the number of passengers of private vehicles on the main corridor, with a"3 in 1" which means the minimum number of passengers in the vehicle were 3 people. This step was also intended to demonstrate to the world when the on going summit of non-aligned countries, that Jakarta was not as severe as expected so that the meeting can be arranged with more timely. Early results of 3 months after the policy was imposed showed a decrease of 24 percent in the number of private cars entering the zone, and dramatic increases (over 150 percent) in the average travel speed by private cars. Road Pricing as one of the Travel Demand Management strategies has been reformulated due to the high traffic growth rebound after the national economic crisis during 1998-2000. A study by Bappenas-JICA (2004) recommended this issue.The City Administration proposed to replace the 3-in-1 policy with an area pricing scheme (or a"sticker" scheme) to take place in a similar area. The scheme sounds much like the Singapore Area Licensing Scheme. Cars will need to buy and display stickers to enter the area in peak hours (7.30 - 9.30 am and 5.00 – 7.00 pm). Opposition politicians and a major consumer‟s organization have come out against the scheme.They said, among other things, that the system would discriminate against the poor. On the other hand, Jakarta's Governor argued that the scheme would hurt only the rich who are the ones who drive cars. But the opposition leader also argued that public transport was insufficient, saidthat more buses should be put onto the road before the scheme is implemented. However, in the popular mind at least, the scheme has not been considered a success. Traffic growth between 1992 and 1997 was very high so much of the benefit was probably overwhelmed by the increasing traffic. In addition, a practice emerged of youths offering to ride as passengers for a small fee (“jockeys”) to allow drivers to meet the occupancy requirement. This also undermined the image of the scheme (although it demonstrated some willingness to pay on parts of thedrivers). The policy of traffic restraint in Jakarta was enacted in the Structure Plan since 1985 and then berevised in the Art. 6/99. The area of restraint divided Jakartainto4 categories, as shown in Figure 1. In 2004, the National Planning Bureau (Bappenas) supported by JICA recommended the development restraint areato accommodatethe pressure of activity in the southern part of the city (Fig.1, left). 232 75% RESTRAINT MODE SPLIT= 85:15 50% RESTRAINT MODE SPLIT= 70:30 25% RESTRAINT MODE SPLIT= 60:40 10% RESTRAINT MODE SPLIT= 50:50 Source: Local Govt Regulation Art. 6/99 on Jakarta Structure Plan Source: Bappenas-JICA (2004) Figure 1. Government policy for traffic restraint in Jakarta 1.3 Jakarta Parking Management Parking management is an important component of TDM is to reduce the use of private vehicles. Maximum parking is an attempt to limit the number of parking spaces and parking payment rates based on the time, especially in the downtown area where the pressure is very high private vehicle. Criticism of parking services become a pressing issue in the city of Jakarta due to poor parking arrangement shave resulted in the high number of violations of parking and parking revenue leakage.Currently car pays IDR 2,000/first hour and motor cycle IDR 1,000 makes Jakarta the second cheapest city in terms of parking fares (Jakarta Post, 2010). A transportation observer proposed a zoning system for parking to discourage on-street parking by proposingthatthe CBD to have a parking fee five times higher than the out skirt zones. 1.4 Study Objectives This study is intended to examine whether the road pricing in Jakarta on 6 percent area will have an impact on macro travelling as has been experienced by Singapore and other countries.Questions out of the research are: can Jakarta Road Pricing substantially reduce fuel consumption and emission, and is asingly road pricing method enough. 2. METHOD The model of research is firstly understanding the travel pattern model, followed bytheestimation of O-D estimation data, and finally with the assignment model. 233 2.1 Jakarta Activity Based Travel Pattern The model comprising Daily Activity Pattern, Time of Day, Mode-Distribution and SubWork based Tour (Yagi, 2006). Nested Logit and Multinomial Logit Model are used to analyze the O-D on mode, time and level of income. 2.1.1 Upper-tier alternatives Marginal choice probabilities for Out of Home (upper tier) DAP is presented by the equation of: (1) (2) is the probability of having a home DAP; of-home DAP; is the probability of having an out- is the individual‟s utility for the home DAP; for the out-of-home DAP; the logsum parameter for is the individual‟s utility is the logsum variable for the out-of-home DAP nest; is . (3) is the individual‟s utility for the DAP consisting of primary tour pattern p and secondary tour pattern s; is the logsum variable calculated from the lower TOD choice utilities for primary tour pattern p. 2.1.2 Lower-tier alternatives: (4) is the probability of having a DAP consisting of primary tour pattern p and secondary tour pattern s, conditional onthechoice of the out-of-home DAPs. 2.1.3 Time of day model TOD choice isamultinomial logit model with 15 alternatives, and it is estimated separately for each purpose (i.e., work, school, maintenance, and discretionary). The marginal choice probabilities in the TOD choice are given by: (5) 234 is the probability of having TOD combination (i.e., start of the tour and start of the returning segment of the tour) t, conditional on activity pattern a (i.e., primary tour pattern p or secondary tour pattern s). 2.2 Matrix Estimation from Traffic Counts Model Tamin (1988)hasdeveloped an estimation method Maximum-Likelihood Estimation Method (ML) using equation below to maximize: (6) subject to (7) Tamin (1998) provides are search for public transport O-D estimation by calibrating a trip distribution – mode choice (TDMC) model from passenger counts with a case in Bandung. The research combined a family of aggregate model and a family of mode choice logit model from traffic (passenger) counts and other low cost data.Tamin (2001) also provides an estimation of best number of sample for accurate estimation for O-D matrix, using approaches of (i) proportion factor of trip interchanges for each link, (ii) independence and inconsistencies conditions, and (iii) physical link condition. The research recommended the proportion of count sample of about 3.6% fromthetotal traffic count data. 2.3 Model for Pricing Assignment Small and Ibanez (1998) determined the sevenbasic forms of congestion pricing. The need for methods which consider congestion effects to be used in urban and other heavily loaded networks is well recognized (Tamin, 1998).Some approachesthathave been developed to include congestion effects in route choice models and equilibrium assignment seem to be the preferred technique on practical and theoretical grounds. This type of assignment technique is consistent with Wardrop‟s equilibrium principle which can be expressed in terms of themathematical program. 2.4 Model for Traffic Assignment - Objective Function: (8) - Subject to (9) (10) (11) Where: Z(x) : objective function to be optimized, as total travel time in the entire road network as function of vehicle flow, x on each link (hour) 235 : travel time on link a as function of vehicle flow on link a (hour) : vehicle flow on link a (vehicle/hour) : vehicle flow on path k connecting origin r and destination s (vehicle/hour) : total vehicle flow connecting origin r and destination s (vehicle/hour) : coincidence matrix denoting vehicle flow on link a of path k connecting origin r and destination s (not unit) 2.5 Model for Estimation of Fuel Consumption and Emission Loading Although the model for fuel consumption and emission loading have been developed in Indonesia, Netcen formulas (2003) based on the research in the TRL (UK), is selected duetothe availability for different car cylinder capacity and type of fuel. For this analysis, we select the model for car capacity of more thanor equalto1,500 cc gasolinefuelled cars. CO Emission: (12) NOx Emission: (13) HC Emission: (14) PM 10 Emission: (15) Where v= speed of vehicle on link (km/h) 2.6 TDM Strategy Evaluation Fergusson (2000) divided the effects of TDM strategies in the surrounding region (site), the corridor and the wider area (regional). Each is shownwiththe target to be achieved and changes in parameters that would occur (Table 1). Table 1 TDM evaluation objectives PERFORMANCE MEASURES CORRIDOR CHANGES Vehicle Trips Reduce Person Trips Constant TARGET DATA Δ # vehicle DO,RP trips Δ # person DO,RP trips METHOD MODEL Vehicle Count Vehicle Count Trip Generation Trip Generation 236 Vehicle Miles of Travel Vehicle Hours of Travel Reduce Δ # VMT RP Survey Reduce Δ # VHT DO,RP Survey Level of Service Increase Traffic Delay Reduce Δ level of DO service Δ # hours of DO delay Trip Distribution Route Assignment Model Network Model Network Model Projection Model Emission REGIONAL Fuel Consumption Reduce Car Emission Reduce Δ gallons of Model gasoline Δ pounds of Model pollutions Source: Ferguson (2000) Remarks: SOV= single occupant vehicle P/V= persons per vehicle VMT=vehicle miles of travel DO= direct observation PMT=person miles of travel RP= revealed preference VHT= vehicle hours of travel SP= stated preference 2.7 Alternative Strategies TDM strategy model is to provide a numerical output of each selected alternative in detail which can bedefinedfor purposes of transportation and environmental modelling. The strategy includes (i) providing“push” effect by road pricing, (ii) parking control, (iii) public transport as a network developmentbasis. a. Congestion Pricing (CP) Quantities PricingStrategy; three alternatives are assumed to be IDR 5,500, IDR 16,500 and IDR 27,500. Time entry, is in the morning (07:00 to 10:00) and in the afternoon (16:30 to 19:00).CP collectionModel isusingaFully Electronic system with Smart Card, so as not to disruptthetraffic due to queue blocking. b. Control Strategies; parking is fully regulated by law so that the location within the parking area, until the second tariff is imposed in a KP, are three times higher, or IDR 4,000 and IDR 6,000 for the first hour, and with the addition of IDR 2,000 for the next hour. Parking outside the KP is reduced, i.e., the current fixed rate of IDR 2000 per hour to IDR 1000 per hour with the addition of IDR 1000 for the next hour. c. Public Transport Development Strategy. The development of public transportation system is carried out in theBRT package policy (8 corridors). 2.8 Alternative Scenarios In conducting analysis ofthealternative selection process: 237 The analysis was conducted in a range of planning in 2010 and 2020. 44alternatives including single, dual and triple combinations alternative strategies are made for thesocalled “long-list”. The selected alternative scenarios are chosen fromthelist to become the so called “short list”, using BRT as the basic scenario and parking and road pricing as the other mainstream strategies. This then called as „dual strategies”. The analysis was carried out on the single and dual strategy.Thesingle strategy, with each set ofa stand-alone alternativeon the basis of thesameroad network and public transport network. The alternativewas taken from T3 (three times the unit pricing road pricing, IDR 16,500), and P2 (additional parking fee of IDR 2,000). Dual strategy, by setting a combination of strategies, by selecting a combination a combined strategy. The strategy chosen was a combination of: 1. T1P2 (the unitpriceis a one-time road pricing (IDR 5,500) and additional parking fee of IDR 2,000). 2. T3P2 (three times the unitprice ofroad pricing (IDR 16,500) and additional parking fee of IDR 2,000). 3. T5P2 (five times the unitpriceof road pricing (IDR 27,500) and additional parking fee of IDR 2,000). 4. T3P4 (three times the unit price ofroad pricing (IDR 16,500) and additional parking fee of IDR 4,000). 3.1 Model Calibration Surveys conducted by Bappenas-JICA (2004) indicate that private cars are mostly used by higher income groups (see Figure 2). Interestingly, for the lowest income group the share of non-motorized transport is as high as 60 percent. This might also imply that the existing public transport services are economically difficult for the lowest income group. Therefore, provision of transport means for the poor is one of the important issues to tackle. Figure 2. Modal shares by households‟income 238 Stratified JABODETABEK trip purposes forecasted for 2020 as shown in Table 1, which shows the high trip growth by 2.41% (Bappenas-JICA, 2004). Most of higher proportion of tripsareoriginated from the hinterland, i.e., commuter trips. The destination of most trips is not very muchchanged since 1985, i.e. in the city nucleus of trip attraction, around SudirmanThamrin. This causes the traffic congestion during morning peak hours (inbound traffic) and evening peaks (outbound). The important area is then considered as the pricing area for TDM assessment. Table 2. Annual trip growth estimation Growth Rate Growth Rate Trip Purpose 2002 2010 2020 2002-2010 2010-2020 HBW 10,548 13,255 14,341 2.90% 0.79% HBS 10,188 10,443 10,985 0.31% 0.51% HBO 12,742 16,620 18,444 3.38% 1.05% NHBB 865 1,143 1,450 3.54% 2.41% NHBO 2,368 3,767 5,174 5.97% 3.22% Average Growth Rate 2.41% The profile of hourly traffic fluctuation as shown in Figure 3 is also convincing the traffic stress (high V/C) during morning and evening period. Figure 3. Hourly fluctuation by purpose The area of pricing located in the Jakarta CBD occupying the area of about 16 km2, is modelled using Emme/2 computer package. The area is defined by a penalty time value as the Willingness To Pay (WTP scenario) for the traffic entering the road boundaries. City dwellers, and the trip matrix are obtained based on Bodetabek household interviews (Home Interview Survey, HIS) in 2002. The survey data processing is developed by Yagi (2006). Figure 4 describes the activity-based model structure for the Greater Jakarta area. 239 Figure 4. Structure of activity-based model for Greater Jakarta (Source: Yagi 2006) Mode split for low, medium, and high income levels is forecasted as in Table 3. The significant private cars reduction is estimated when the BRT and road pricing are implemented. Table 3. Utility function by income level Income Beta C Gen Time Utility Prob. Car Low 0.031367 2.28757 13.47 2.71 6% Med 0.031367 1.24977 13.47 1.67 16% High 0.031367 -0.03471 13.47 0.39 40% Assignment also indicates the improvement of travel speed using the BRT and non-BRT corridors after the scheme is implemented. BRT traffic performance is depicted in Table 4. Table 4. Evaluation atthe BRT network BRT Speed Distance Time Bus Fare Corridor (km/h) (1-way) (hrs) (IDR) Blok M- Kota 15.6 13.76 0.88 3,500 PuloGadung- Harmoni 14.0 12.40 0.89 3,500 Kalideres- Harmoni 15.2 13.79 0.91 3,500 PulogadungDukuhAtas 20.3 25.45 1.25 3,500 240 The model estimates that the time saving due to BRT operation is 10.94 minutes for average OD pairs. Road pricing is assessed with the minimum level of income as Willingness to Pay (WTP) of IDR 5,500. In order to optimize mode shift from private car users, additional parking charging is addedon top of the current price, i.e., IDR 2, 000. This is shown in table 5. Table 5. Probability of choice Income Utility Prob Car Low 2.72 6% Med 1.68 16% High 0.83 30% The average level of privatecarusers for all parts of social stratification is about 17%, which shows a reduction from the previous (BRT) of 5%. In total, it can reduce 29% from the previous mode shift, as shown in table 6. Table 6. Reduction of private cars Income Prob Car Delta Prob cars Prob Cars Low 9% 3% 33% Med 22% 7% 29% High 40% 10% 24% 3.2 Model Validation Model validation process is to compare the model to the results of the traffic numeration survey estimates, so that there are small differences that can be tolerated.Traffic count locations and travel speed through out the Greater Jakarta area were randomly selected(Figure 5). Surveys were conducted in 2007 and 2008.The validated models were for the planning condition in 2008.In this model validation processing stage, it was using the "macros" that exist in the software used(EMME). 241 Figure 5. Traffic Counting for Model Validation Having observed the travel characteristics data in 2008, the model is validated by comparing the assigned flows to traffic volumes, as shown in Figure 6, where the deviation is limited to 10% (as shown by green line) and 20% (red line). 8000 7500 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 Model 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 Survai Observasi +10% -10% 20% -20% 0 Figure 6 Comparison between the survey and the model Using these parameters, an assessment has been made to estimate the probability of level of trips, the percentage of public transport users, with various TDM strategies. With the current assumption of pessimistic level of public transport trips of 30%, then thefull BRT is assigned that will produce level of demandlevel increases to 57.6%. Following this, road pricing on top of thefull BRT will significantly produce demand increases to 65.4%, and the parking management will finally produce public transport demand to 71.5% cumulatively as shown in Fig.7. 242 Probability Level 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 with Parking& Road Pricing & Full BRT 0.6 with Road Pricing & Full BRT Car 0.5 (Existing) with Full BRT 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 different of travel time with car (min) -150 -100 0 -50 0 50 100 150 Figure 7. Modal Split Estimation for Various TDM Strategies The network performance shows thesignificantimprovement using TDM and BRT scenario. The benefit rises both in the TDM area and outside TDM area as well, as shown in Table 7. Table 7. Performance with and without TDM Scenario Area Veh-Km Veh-Hr Speed (km/h) 11,494,152 8,590,830 27.70 258,368 17,771 44.06 10,525,409 6,789,561 29.07 TDM Area 165,010 5,576 47.12 Greater Jakarta 968,743 1,801,269 1 TDM Area 93,358 12,195 3 Greater Jakarta 8.43% 20.97% 4.95% TDM Area 36.13% 68.62% 6.95% Do Nothing Greater 2020 Jakarta TDM Area TDM BRT2020 Impact + Greater Jakarta Table 7 shows that the benefit at Greater Jakarta can be measured from the reduction of vehicle-kms at 8.43%, and subsequently 20.97% vehicle-hours reduction and 4.95% of speed 243 increment. In the TDM area the benefit of reduction in vehicles-km is 36.13%, and 68.62% for vehicles-hours reduction and 6.95% for speed increment respectively. For the purposes of model development, Jabodetabek is zoned by zoning analysis that dividesthe area into 4 sections, as can be seen in Figure 8. 3 0 2 1 2 4 Figure 8. Zoning area : TDM area (1), Inner Tollroad (2), Outer Tollroad (3) Having observed the travel characteristics data in 2008, the model is validated by comparing the assigned flows to traffic volumes where the deviation is limited to 10% - 20%. 3. ESTIMATION RESULTS 3.1 Improvement of Speed Having implemented the TDM scenario, the impact of traffic volume and speed in the TDM area and its surroundings were explored. The benefit of theTDM scenario is obvious as reflected by reducing the amount of traffic volume in the TDM area and increasing its travel speed, as shown in Figure 9. 244 Figure 9. Impactson volume (left) and speed (right) Note: Red (left picture) means volume reduces, Green (right picture) means speed increases 4.2 Scenario 1 The scenario 1 assumes the condition whereby all private vehicles entering theTDM areaischarged by IDR 5,500, whereas, withinthe area,the parking rates are subject to additional fee of IDR 4,000. In order to differentiate the impact, the study area isdivided intoregion 0 (Greater Jakarta), 1 (TDM Area), 2 (TDM Area- Inner Tollway) and 3 (Inner Tollway- Outer Tollway). Results of analysis are presented in Table 8. Table 8. TDM performances intheyear 2020 scenario Average Speed Region Vehicle-km Vehicle-hours (km / h) Greater Jakarta 5,889,691 4,892,691 5.27 TDM Area 165.010 5.576 47.10 TDM Area-Inner Tollway 1,477,600 273.340 37.10 Inner Limit-JORR 1,617,954 4.25 2,993,108 4.3 Scenario 2 The scenario 2 assumes the condition whereby all private vehicles entering the TDM area is charged by IDR 16 500,whereas, within the area,the parking rates are subject to additional fee of IDR 4,000.The analysisis done in the region 0 (Greater Jakarta), 1 (TDM region), 2 (Inner Limit-TDM) and 3 (Inner Limit-JORR). Results of analysis are presented in Table 9. Table 9. TDM performances in scenario 2 year 2020 245 Region Vehiclekm Vehiclehours Greater Jakarta 5,889,708 4,811,684 4.27 TDM 114.732 Inner Limit-TDM 1,546,768 279.467 Inner Limit-JORR 3,001,692 1,608,017 3.25 3.482 Average Speed (Km/h) 47.8 36.6 By zoning the area of analysis, figure 10 shows the comparison of demand of traffic in the area, where in the TDM area, the most congested area,it caters2% of the total movement. In the TDM and IRR (inner ring road) the trafficis 17%even thoughthe area isonly 6%. Figure 10. Percentage of traffic volume by zone 4.4 Scenario 3 The scenario 3 assumes the condition whereby all private vehicles entering theTDM area is charged by IDR 27 500, whereas, within the area, the parking rates are subject to additional cost of IDR 4,000. The analysis is done in the region 0 (Greater Jakarta), 1(TDM region), 2 (TDM Area- Inner Tollway) and3 (Inner Limit-JORR). Results of analysis are presented in Table 10. Table 10. TDM performances of scenario 3 Region Vehicle-km Vehiclehours Average (Km/h) Greater Jakarta 5,820,981 4,821,359 7.22 TDM 114.282 3.463 38.5 TDM Area- Inner 1,536,339 Tollway 280.384 34.1 Inner Limit-JORR 1,599,458 1.25 2,971,318 Speed 246 4.5 Scenario 4 The scenario 4assumes the condition whereby all private vehicles entering theTDM area is charged by IDR16 500,whereas, within the area, the parking rates are subject to additional cost of IDR8,000. The analysis is done in the region 0 (Greater Jakarta), 1(TDM Area), 2 (TDM Area- Inner Tollway)and 3 (Inner Limit-JORR). Results of analysis are presented in Table 11. Table 11. TDM performances in scenario 4 Region Vehicle-km Vehicle-hours Average Speed (Km/h) Greater Jakarta 5,812,936 4,790,922 7.22 TDM Area 111.201 3.410 38.7 TDM Area- Inner 1,531,096 Tollway 279.058 34.1 Inner Limit-JORR 2,963,805 1,593,442 1.25 4.5 Impact on Air Emissions The estimated quantities of air emissions are taken into account in the analysis of gasesthat include CO, NOx, HC and PM-10. Comparison between scenario 1 and 2 for area classification and pollutant types during 2020 is shown in Table 12. Table 12. Impact of emissions impact Scenari o Region Greater Jakarta TDM Area Inner Limit-JORR TDM Toll Area- CO emissions NOx emissions HC emissions PM-10 emissions (Tonnes) (Tonnes) (Tonnes) (Tonnes) 1 69.322 94 4.330 88 2 67.855 94 4.241 87 1 399 7 22 1 2 250 3 11 0 1 12.914 76 851 16 2 12.851 75 846 16 1 4.279 40 275 5 2 4.224 40 273 5 Inner 247 4.6 Impact on Fuel Consumption Fuel consumption (kilo liter) due to the implementation of combination ofstrategies for scenarios 1 and 2 are presented in Table 13. Table 13. Impact on fuel consumptions of scenarios 1 and 2 Scenario 2020 Scenario 2020 Impact Greater Jakarta 290.330 284.214 2.11 TDM 2.055 1.346 34.50 Inner Limit-JORR 55.334 55.076 0.47 Toll Inner Limit-TDM 19.307 19.027 1.45 Region (%) 4.7 Performance Evaluation in the TDM Area A review onthe performance of transportation-based on the traffic performance, environment impact and financing viability, which are combined using weighing factor for Jakarta (Bappenas-JICA, 2004)- is calculated and finally presented as scenario 3 (T3P2) resulting in the highest rank as in Figure 11. T3P4 STRATEGI MKT T5P2 T3P2 T1P2 T3 P2 - 10.00 SKOR LALU LINTAS 20.00 30.00 40.00 SKOR LINGKUNGAN 50.00 60.00 SKOR FINANSIAL Figure 11.Weighing Factor and Combined Evaluation 5. INNOVATION FOR INDONESIA’S ROAD PRICING In order to provide the implementation more reasonable in teh context of Urban Transport in Indonesia, some innovations measures are presented here for the paper discussions. sinec efficient pricing can reduce congestion and help achieve other planning objectives, the pricing strategies considered here are the development of road pricing learned from 248 successfull or fail experience in the developed contries, such as parking pricing, higher fuel taxes, and distance-based fees that may be easier to implement and provide greater impact in the total benefits. a. Variation of Pricing based on the Income Level The criticism that Road Pricing is only benefit for the rich people should be treated differently. Consider that road user income are not at one band of income, the system should provide with the mechanism that road pricing are different for different income level. The smart card has been proved to alleviate the social income level, since the national program called “Kartu Pintar” or “Kartu Sehat” which defines only the dedicated low income level for direct and indirect subsidy. The idea is, the pricing should be sensitive to the income level, is theb not a new idea, it is just a combination of Road Pricing and “Kartu Pintar”. b. Variation of Pricing based on the Traffic Congestion Level The experience of Stockholm since 2006, has charged a tax for driving vehicle into our out of its central area during weekdays. After a sixth month trail it was approved by a referendum. The tax varies, with higher rates during peak hours and no charge evenings nightsand no charge evenings, nights and weekends. Vehicles entering the charge area are recorded electronically and sent a bill at the end of each month. Funds are used to improve local roads. c. Ear Marked the Revenues for Public Mass Transit Improvement The intention of road pricing to improve modal shift to public transport cannot be automatically set up, unless there is a system that provide “push” for private car to understand their tax to be ear marked. Based on Government Regulation 32/2011 on the Traffic Management, Transport Impact Control (TIC) and Travel Demand Management (TDM), revenues from pricing should be ear marked for 2 purposes: (i) improvement of traffic management and (ii) improvement of quality of public transport. d. Better Public Transport to Reduce Pricing Pricing travel impacts and consumercosts (loss of consumer surplus) are significantly affected by the quality oftransport options. If alternatives are inferior a relatively high price isneeded to reduce vehicle trafficneeded to reduce vehicle traffic volumes and congestion delays. Ifalternatives are convenient, comfortable and affordable a smallercomfortable and affordable, a smallerprice is needed to reduce automobile travel demand and consumers areless harmed (VTPI, 2011). The experience from implementation in many cities, that high quality public transit servicesignificantly reduces the price (road toll or parking fee) required to achieve a givenparking fee) required to achieve a givenreduction vehicle travel, a reflection of the smaller incremental cost to travelers (i.e., lessloss of consumer surplus) when they shift from driving to high quality public transport. 249 5. CONCLUSION Road pricing will not be optimal if treated as a single solution, but rather an additional policy if mass transit was developed as a foundation. However, BRT as a basic strategy should be placed on the first bottom, than pricing and parking management. The test parameters are from technical effects of vehicle-km, vehicle-hours, and average travel speed, pollutant effects by looking at the impact of HC, PM10, CO and NOx, and the effects of vehicle fuel consumption, as well as the effect of investment costs. Starting from the very few area, which is only 6%, the impact will produce significant improvement, such asvehicle-km, vehicle-hrs, fuel consumption and emission levels. The validation process has revealedthe 10%difference betweenthe model and thecounts. The analysispoints outthat Jakarta road pricing should be combined withtheintegrated parking management for middle technology implementation. Aspredicted,the impact using the combined strategy will provide fuel consumption reduction of 2.14% in Jakarta city-wide, emission loading isalsoreduced by 97 tonnes of NOx and 67,855 tonnes of CO.However this is nota guarantee that this policy could be implemented if the social impact is not considered. 6. REFERENCES The Holy Qur‟an. Acharya, R.A., andMorichi, S. 2007.“Motorization and Role of Mass Rapid Transit in East Asian Megacities‖, Proceedings IATSS, Tokyo. Bappenas-JICA. 2004.“The Study on Integrated Transportation Master Plan for Jabodetabek (Phase II)” Technical Report 2: Transportation and Demand Forecast, Jakarta. Barter, P. 1998.“Jakarta Area Pricing – Equitable or Not?”, Sustran Discussion, Jakarta. Beevers, S.D., and Carslaw, D.C. 2004.“The Impact of Congestion Charging on Vehicle Emissions in London”, Atmospheric Environment 39 (2005) 1-5, Elsevier. Button, K.J. 1982.“Transport Economics‖, Heinemann, London. Button, K.J., and Verhoef, E.T. 2001.“Road Pricing, Traffic Congestion and the Environment”,Edward Elgar Publishing. Dinas Perhubungan DKI Jakarta. 2004.“Pola Transportasi Makro DKI Jakarta‖. Ferguson, E. 2001.“Auckland Regional Travel Demand Management Strategy‖, New Zealand. Ferguson, E. 2000.“Travel Demand Management and Public Policy‖, Ashgate Publishing Ltd, Vermont. Prayudyanto, M.N.,andTamin, O.Z.2009.“Mode Shift Travel Demand Management Evaluation from Jakarta‟s Experience”, Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies. Prayudyanto, M.N. 2010.“Analysis of Optimization Strategies of Travel Demand Management Coping in Urban Transportation Problems (Case Jakarta Metropolitan City)”, Post Graduate School, Institute of Technology Bandung (Unpublished). Reploge, M. 2008.“Road Pricing and Congestion Charging Experience, Opportunities Motivation‖, Environmental Sustainable Transport Conference, Singapore. 250 Small, K., A, and Ibanez, J., G. 1998.“Road Pricing for Congestion Management: The Transition from Theory to Policy”. In: Button, K.J., Verhoef, E.T. (eds.),―Road Pricing, Traffic Congestion and the Environment‖, Edward Elgar Publishing, Northampton. Soehodho, S., Alvinsyah. 2007.“Impact Assessment of BRT Implementation in Jakarta: A Case of Corridor One (Sudirman- Thamrin)”, Journals of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies. Tamin, O.Z. 1998.“Public Transport Demand Estimation by Calibrating a Trip DistributionMode Choice (TDMC) Model From Passenger Counts: A Case Study in Bandung, Indonesia”, Journal of Advanced Transportation in Asia-Pacific Countries, 3(1), 5-15. Yagi, S. 2006.“An Activity-Based Microsimulation Model of Travel Demand for Transportation Policy and Impact Analysis‖, PhD Thesis, University of Illinois at Chicago, USA, 2006. 251 An Appraisal of Sustainable Financing of District Road Maintenance in Indonesia Max Antameng PH.D MA (Regulatory and Institutional Specialist Cardno Emerging Market) cenrma@gmail.com; 087877242867 DR. IR. Slamet Moelyono M.Sc (Deputy Director of Region II DG Highways Indonesia) s_muljono@yahoo.com; ABSTRACT: The role of District road in Indonesia consider significant for the regional development and economic growth. Since 80% of the transportation using road. The District road accounted around 80% of the total road in Indonesia, and their condition status now is around 50% stable (good and fair), and 50% remaining bad condition, it means around half of the movement experiences expensive transportation costs. The Government has introduced the availability of Road Preservation fund thru Law on Traffic and Transportation, to implement this need implementation regulation which cover the detail of the road preservation mechanism. Implementing another charges to the road user, will be difficult since the government just increase the fuel tariff, and can be additional burden to the road users which politically sure not attractive Appraisal District road maintenance in Indonesia will explore the real issues of district road in Indonesia, and at the same time to show and analyze the best possible international experiences to be adapted in the case of Indonesia to accelerate growth in the region and support national growth. This paper will demonstrate the issues of district road maintenance, the progress on preparing Preservation Fund and other possibilities to accelerate recovery of District Road in Indonesia thru the road performance appraisal, which now being pilot in NTB Provinces Keywords: Road Preservation Fund, PRIM, District Road, Performance, Road Tariff 1. INTRODUCTION District road provide vital links to services and employment for communities, access to markets and the transport of goods. Their quality, in terms of providing reliable and efficient access, can also significantly affect socio-economic Consequently, the Directorate General of Highways (DGH) has been given national responsibility for the provision of leadership and support to district road agencies to help improve management of regional roads, which has been defined as the third important mission of DGH in its 2010-2014 strategic plan (Renstra). District roads constitute the majority of roads in Indonesia. At least 80% of roads in Indonesia are a district road. The district road conditions are worse than the provincial road with much less than the national road. As shown below: 252 Table 19 matrix on Road condition in Indonesia, sources: World Bank 2012 it was shown from the diagram above that district road which constitutes 80% of the total road, with the significant value (10.1% of GDP), has only 43% of stable road (good + Fair Condition) Without proper maintenance, it will increase the transportation costs and this will hampered the economic growth of a region thru the decrease in competition of the region compared to other region. Proper road maintenance will prevent the road deteriorate further, and will maintain the level of travel time in some extend. In connection with the financing district, predicted up to this time, the average district can only meet 50% of the financing of maintenance needed funds. In addition, there are costs for local roads in several sources as shown in the diagram below: Diagram 1 Financing Road in Indonesia, writers: 2014 Although the sources of financing still consist of a variety of sources, the total needs of the district can be met only about 50%. In addition to this, the amount of funding the district roads is very low (approximately Rp. 10 million per km) compared with the national road costs about Rp. 50 million per km. Even for the 2015-2019 Strategic Plan, submitted 253 proposals for financing DGH routine maintenance is Rp. 110 million per km. In addition to funding limitations mentioned above, there are also issues relating to nonfinancial, such as professional capability in the district in the implementation of the road, the road not including the main sequence in the political aspect, so there is no direct link between the performance of regents with street performance. Based on Indii study (2014), Special grants, Dana Alokasi Khusus (DAK), already finance LG expenditures on infrastructure projects that align with national priorities. DAK accounts for 7% of inter-government transfers. (Dana Alokasi Umum, or DAU, is much larger at 63%, but it mainly pays for salaries.) For roads, DAK is used for heavy maintenance, rehabilitation and upgrading (it‟s limited to capital works); Rp 30 trillion was allocated in 2010-2014. Guidelines are issued by DGH, but output verification is weak. The World Bank (WB) has been helping strengthen the link between disbursement and output performance, with sample verification by BPKP, the State Finance and Development Supervisory Board, but PRIM-like technical verification is still missing. To solve this chronic problems, several alternative available to be implement, the option are: 1. From political point of view, local road lack of political visibility on top of limited funding levels, because of lack of “political visibility”. In Political point of view, to put Road Maintenance as element of political performance, and for that reasons, in the political aspect, Road Maintenance will be priority. 2. Extension of PRIM (Provincial Road Improvement and Maintenance in NTB) to the other provinces before its implementation to the whole nation 3. Continue the preparation of Preservation Fund Unit, which now have to start with preparation of Government Regulation on Road Preservation Fund. 4. Continue from point 3. Setting up independent appraisal of local government to facilitate local government on setting up competitiveness rating of each local authority as part of continuous improvement in the local authority. This unit, will help point 1,2 and 3 above. Last but not least, to continue and follow up Preservation fund whereby the local road maintenance will be finance thru the Road Tariff (Road Fund) which is adaptable to Indonesia. 2. MATERIALS AND METHOD The methodology of this paper consists of desktop study, largely and basically based on the Ph.D theses 2002 on institutional Framework for financing district road in Indonesia, and the latest progress (come from several result of the formal discussion when the government start the preparation of setting up Road Preservation Fund as a Government Initiative, Indonesian Infrastructure Initiative Study on Performance approach for Maintenance which is now underway in Provinces in NTB and combining the soul of Road Fund with the result of PRIM as the way to conclude this paper. 254 Jean Paul Rodrigue et al (2013) explain clearly the important of transportation from economic point of view. He mention that The economic importance of the transportation industry can be assessed from a macroeconomic and microeconomic perspective: 1. At the macroeconomic level (the importance of transportation for a whole economy), transportation and the mobility it confers are linked to a level of output, employment and income within a national economy. 2. At the microeconomic level (the importance of transportation for specific parts of the econonomy) transportation is linked to producer, consumer and production costs. The Importance of specific transport activities and infrastructure can thus be assessed for each sector of the economy. Transportation accounts on average between 10% and 15% of household expenditures while it accounts around 4% of the costs of each unit of output in manufacturing. Dr. jean Paul rodrigue et al (2013) Infrastructure transport may affect directly and indirectl Despite the significant role of Road sector in the development, poverty reduction and level of competitiveness of the region. The current condition of the district road still relatively poor compared with provincial and national Road. The keyword here is existing inventory/road and lead to the road condition, and road condition has to be link with Road Maintenance The Purpose of Road maintenance is to ensure that the road does not fail before its design life (Robinson 1988, Robinson et al, 1998). Here maintenance reduces the rate of road deterioration; it lowers the costs of rate of road deterioration; it lowers the cost of operating vehicles and keeps the road open on a continuous basis. Ideally, all maintenance should be preventive and designed to take action before failure occurs. In this case, proper and adequate maintenance could postpone road deterioration. Government agencies do not appear to appreciate the importance of road maintenance. New Road are politically more attractive as vote winners than undertaking road maintenance. The cost of neglecting road maintenance Canning and Fay 1993), who conclude that the effect of inadequate and unreliable infrastructure cripples the ability of countries to engage in international trade, even traditional export commodities. G Yamfi (1992) and Faiz (1988) found that each dollar which is not allocated to road maintenance can cause vehile operating costs to increase by $.2 - $.3. In most cases, on an annual basis, each dollar expended for routine and periodic maintenance saves at least $. !.4 in vehicle operating costs. The cost of neglecting road maintenance can be seen in africa, where most roads are poorly managed and badly maintained. Heggie (1994) and (1995) mentions that it would take nearly $ 43 billion to fully restore all roads classified as being in poor condition (requiring immediate rehabilitation and reconstruction). An ezample, road neglect in Ghana. Hana had a good road network before 1970, but due to serious neglect, by 1984 about 60% of main paving had failed, and a futher 27% were in danger of failure. Important section of the network had become almost impassable; access to some of the interior of the country was curtailed. Transport cost increased by about 50% on main roads, and by more than 100% on rural roads. Poor-quality construction and little maintenance. Budgets go to visible projects but maintenance is neglected, hastening deterioration and requiring expensive rehabilitation or reconstruction. Projects are not always chosen with a long-term view of the network in 255 mind. Connectivity is sometimes weak. Work is poorly supervised. Local government (LG) agencies have limited capacity. Corruption is not uncommon. There are few incentives to do better. Agencies are not held accountable for the functioning or condition of their networks. Nor are they pressured by public scrutiny to set the right priorities and produce better outcomes. There is no check on whether they deliver value-formoney, nor sanction if they don‟t. Road conditions are not reliably monitored. Users‟ costs are higher than they need be, undermining social and economic development efforts. Indii study on Local Road Found (2011) based on their findings in several provinces and kabupaten, they come to the conclusion that Road maintenance in Indonesia is significantly under-resourced at the provincial and kabupaten levels; furthermore the ability of the relevant agencies to objectively identify road maintenance needs, plan and then program works is limited. The Planning, Programming and Budgeting Procedures (PPBP) technical assistance within the Eastern Indonesia Road Transport Project (EIRTP 1) reported that the current data collection process for both provincial and kabupaten roads mainly comprises surveys for road inventory and condition, while maintenance works carried out were more likely to be based on political decisions rather than on the data collected. Of the few studies that concluded, for the district, some of the issues encountered in the district are as follows: 1. lack of professional ability of employees to perform their duties or stakeholder 2 there is no agreement or consensus on the importance of road maintenance districts as supporting economic growth region / regions. 3. no link between the financing needs of the community road maintenance. Issues on Road Maintenance Lack of engineering capacity Lack of political visibility Issues of financing capacity Unit preservation Fund Unit on LOCAL Govertment Assessment including Road sector performance and competitiveness Replication of PRIM solution Diagram Diagram 2 Issues on road maintenance and the available solution to be sustanaible, writers 2014 2 shows that the three issues can be approach thru available alternative solutions 256 3. RESULT AND DISCUSSION There are at least three available solutions which is each of them can be support to optimize the result of the solution, there are: (1) replicating the PRIM Project in NTB extended to the other places; (2) Prepare Government Regulation on Road Preservation Fund and (3) setting up independent body/unit to assess the level of competitiveness of the District government or to replicate what has been done by WEF (World Economic Forum) to assess and issued annual report on the level of competitiveness in District government, whereby one of the element to be assess is the district road. The detail of the solution will be as follows: a. Replicating the PRIM (Provincial road Improvement Project) in NTB extended to the other places (district or province) Project PRIM is now piloting in NTB start from July 2013 up to June 2015, and hopefully (depends on the level of successfulness of the program) it will continue up to 2018. The incentive mechanism in this project is related to the level of success of the local authority. The Grant is come from the Australian Government and the organization of the grant can be seen below: Diagram 3 organization of Australian and Indonesian Grant for PRIM, sources: Indii 2012 257 This grant will be end on June 2015, and if the result of the pilot project is encouraging than there will be extension of the program to complete the pilot project in NTB up to 2018. The incentive given to NTB provinces around 40%, but the NTB government has to pay all the work done 100%, and proposed the reimbursable cost to AUSAID./GOI If the Team on behalf of GOI/AUSAID agreed that the work done on line with the Specification has already been agreed, then the AUSAID thru the Ministry of Finance will reimbursed maximum 140% out of the total expenditures. There is a possibility that central government instead of Government Australia, will extend the grant into District Government, and at the end it will be implemented to the whole country. b. Prepare Government Regulation on Road Preservation Fund Law no. 22/2009 about traffic and road transport mentioning that the financing of road preservation can be done through the levy-funded road users. coupled with the assertion that the Road agency is responsible for road damage. This has to be followed up by preparing Government Regulation on Road Preservation Fund. The Government regulation has to include the following: (1) Sources of funds: road retribution from road user will be taken together when the road user purchase fuel in the pump. (2) Managing Road funds: Unit of Preservation Fund will be the unit who are responsible in management of road preservation (3) Road Fund Unit will be located in the central (Jakarta) (4) SOP in tariff collection and distribution (5) Control mechanism (6) Accounting system (7) Member of the unit (8) Unit Preservation fund member From the experiences, the time needed for preparing Government regulation until the regulation issued by government will be around 1 up to 2 years, and also has to be accepted by all the relevant ministries including Ministry Of Finance. c. Setting up independent body/unit to assess and facilitating the competitiveness of the district The aim to set up the independent body/unit to assess 330 district government and 33 regional government and act like World Economic Forum to launch the competitiveness index of kabupatens and provinces. Of course for the kick off need government initiation and facilitation to setup this unit. This is elite unit which will continuously watch the 9 pillars which driving productivity and competitiveness (WEF 2009) as follows: 1. Institution: the system of rules that shapes incentives and defines the way economic agents interact in an economy 2. Infrastructure: Measuring the quality and extensiveness of roads, railroads,, air transport and telecommunications, as well as the efficiency of port and electricity supply 258 3. Macro economic Stability: captures of data indicators government budget balance and debt, inflation, the interest rate spread, national savings rate. 4. Health and primary education: capture basic health standards and the quantity, quality of primary education 5. Higher education and training: measures enrollment levels at the secondary and tertiary levels; quality of higher education and the extent of vocational and on the job training 6. Good Market efficiency : comprise two sub pillars, analyzing respectively the extent to which government interventions create distortions (including thru agricultural policies, anti monopoly policies, taxation, and red tape) and the intensity of competition, as well a the quality of demand conditions (including customer orientation and buyer sophistication) 7. Technological readiness: measures the extent to which countries leverage technologies and knowledge available in the country irrespective of their origin, with a special emphasis on ICT penetration and usage 8. Business sophistication: measures micro economic factors that are particularly important for firms and countries high on the value chain and close to the technological frontier included: the quantity and quality of suppliers, the presence of deep and efficient cluster, well developed production processes, the nature of a firm‟s competitive advantage. 9. Innovation: represents the main source of competitive advantage for countries as they approach the technological frontier. This unit can be done separately from the government, or have to be franchise of the international WEF, which may be done in this instance, or totally different and independent unit. This unit can also as a facilitating team for selecting the pilot project for preservation fund or extension pilot project for PRIM, of course the assessment base on the DPEF (District Provinces Economic Forum of Indonesia). 4. CONCLUSION Financing district road need political interference thru high level commitment in the district level. The output of the road performance has to be included in the performance contract of Bupati (head of district) and as well facilitation from central government should also in place. There are several way to deal with district road issues, such as (providing that the political view on the road has changes to put road as one of the parameter of performance): 1. extension of PRIM model with central government grant 2. continue to prepare Government Regulation on Road Preservation Fund, which has been introduced thru the Law No. 22/2009 Road traffic and Transportation 3. setting up the independent unit/body act as World Economic Forum to do appraisal to 330 district/urban and 33 provinces and also help to prepare point 1 and point 2 above. 259 5. 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