John Hansman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

John Hansman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

MIT
ICAT
Overview of Recent Trends in
the Airline Industry
Prof. R. John Hansman
With the help of the Faculty and Students of the MIT Global
Industry Study
Traffic Source: Sage Analysis courtesy Prof Ian Waitz
rjhans@mit.edu
MIT
ICAT
World Population Distribution &
2002 Air Transportation Activity
North America
37% Pax
26% Cargo
Europe
27% Pax
28% Cargo
~160 Airlines
~4100 Airports
~200 Airlines
~2400 Airports
Latin America/
Caribbean
5% Pax
3% Cargo
~50 Airlines
~580 Airports
Asia/
Pacific
26% Pax
36% Cargo
Africa
2% Pax
2% Cargo
Middle East
4% Pax
5% Cargo
~20 Airlines
~300 Airports
~20 Airlines
~230 Airports
Population Source:http://www.ciesin.org/datasets/gpw/globldem.doc.html
Air Transport Source: ICAO, R. Schild/Airbus
Passenger and freight traffic represent RPK and FTK share in 2002
~80 Airlines
~1800 Airports
MIT
ICAT
RPK by Region
Scheduled Revenue Passenger-Kilomters by Region
1400
1200
North America
RPK (billion)
1000
Europe
800
Asia and
Pacific
Latin America
& Caribbean
600
Middle East
400
Africa
200
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Source: ICAO, scheduled services of commercial air carriers
2000
2005
MIT
ICAT
Freight Trends by Region
Freight Tonne-Kilomters by Region
45
40
35
North America
FTK (billion)
30
Europe
25
Asia and
Pacific
20
Latin America
& Caribbean
15
Middle East
Africa
10
5
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Source: ICAO, scheduled services of commercial air carriers
2000
2005
MIT
ICAT
Rapid Cargo Growth
since Mid 90s
US Scheduled Pax Traffic vs. Cargo Traffic
500
Normalized Traffic Index (1978=100)
Pax (RPM)
Freight (FTM)
400
300
200
100
0
1975
1980
Source: Form41 data, all US carriers
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
MIT
ICAT
Impact of September 11
US Domestic RPMs
Domestic Traffic -- RPMs
(Billions)
50
45
40
35
30
25
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
20
Jan Feb Mar
Apr May Jun
Source: ATA Monthly Passenger Traffic Report
Jul
Source: ATA, US member airlines, scheduled mainline service
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
MIT
ICAT
Cargo Traffic Is Immunized
(US Monthly Scheduled FTMs)
Scheduled Cargo Traffic -- FTMs
(Billions)
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
1.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Source: ATA Monthly Passenger Traffic Report
Source: Form41, all US carriers, scheduled cargo traffic
Jul
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
MIT
ICAT
US Airline Load Factors 2000-2003
Monthly Load Factor -- System
(Percent)
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
50
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May Jun
Source: ATA Monthly Passenger Traffic Report
Jul
Source: ATA, US member airlines, scheduled mainline service
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
Annual Change in Average
Domestic Fare (2000-2004)
MIT
ICAT
Average Domestic Air Fare
(Percent Change from Previous Year)
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
-25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
Source: ATA Monthly Airfare Report; eight US major airlines excluding Southwest (WN)
MIT
ICAT
Airline Profitability Impact of
Sept 11
Quick Recovery
$/ASM
Slow Recovery
Insolvency
Security costs
CASM
RASM
9/11-9/13
Time
MIT
ICAT
All Major Carriers On “Slow Recovery”
Trajectory Except Southwest
$800
9/11 Attacks
Net Income (Loss) in millions
$400
$0
2000Q1
2000Q3
2001Q1
2001Q3
$(400)
$(800)
$(1,200)
AA
UA
DL
NW
CO
WN
$(1,600)
Source: Airline reports
2002Q1
2002Q3
2003Q1
2003Q3
2004Q1
MIT
ICAT
Operating Performance of
Major Pax and Cargo Carriers
$1,600
West Coast
Dock Strike
Net Income (Loss) in millions
$1,200
9/11 Attacks
$800
SARS
Iraq War
$400
$0
2000Q1
2000Q3
2001Q1
$(400)
$(800)
$(1,200)
AA
UA
DL
NW
CO
WN
UPS
FedEx
$(1,600)
Source: companies’ annual reports
2001Q3
2002Q1
2002Q3
2003Q1
2003Q3
2004Q1
MIT
ICAT
America
West
1.7%
Market Cap: US Majors, 6/10/04
With Jet Blue
ATA
0.3%
US Airways Alaska
0.7%
2.9%
United
0.6%
Continental
3.4%
Northwest
4.3%
Delta
3.6%
Jet Blue
13.8%
American
9.4%
Southwest
59.3%
Total Market Cap: $20.9 billion
Source: Yahoo! Finance. Includes ATA
MIT
Current Market Cap vs. RPM Share
US Majors and ATA
ICAT
Monthly RPM Share 05/04
25%
20%
American
United
Delta
15%
Northwest
10%
Continental
Southwest
US Airways
5%
American West
Alaska
JetBlue
ATA
0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Relative Market Cap 06/04
Network vs. Cost Efficiency Questions
Source: Yahoo! Finance and airline traffic reports
60%
MIT
ICAT
Weak Carriers Vulnerable to
LCC Attack
Southwest
PHL Entry
Service since May 9:
Chicago (Midway)
Las Vegas
Orlando
Providence
US Airways match many of Southwest's
fares with its own new, less restricted
"GoFares.“
Both airlines offer the lowest available
fares on many competing routes.
US Airways
Network
Sources:http://www.southwest.com/cities/philadelphia.html, ETMS Data Analysis
$ 79
$ 99
$ 79
$ 29
one-way
one-way
one-way
one-way
MIT
ICAT
Emergence of
Low-Cost Carriers
Europe (60, 3 in 2004)
Canada (7, 1 in 2004)
CanJet
HMY Airways
JetsGo Airlines
Tango Airlines
Westjet
Zip
Canada West
USA (19, 4 in 2003/2004)
AirTran
Allegiant Air
American West
ATA
Frontier Airlines
Interstate Jet
JetBlue Airways
Midwest Express
Pan American
Southeast Airlines
Southwest Airlines
Spirit Airlines
Song Air
Sun Country
USA 3000 Airlines
Vacation Express
Ted
Independence
Virgin USA
Aer Arann
Air 2000
Air Baltic
Air Berlin
Air Finland
Air Luxor Lite
Air Polonia
Air Scotland
Air Southwest
Air Wales
Alpi Eagles
Azzurra Air
Baboo
Basiq Air
Bexx Air
BMI Baby
British European
BudgetAir
Corendon
Deutsche BA
EasyJet
Evolavia
Excel Airways
Fairline Austria
Bra
Gol
U Air
Sun Express
Swedline
ThomsonFly
V Bird
Virgin Express
VLM Airlines
VolareWeb
Windjet Vola
Smart Wings
Wizz Air
Hop
Asia/Pacific (20, 8 in 2004)
Africa (2)
South America (3)
Fare4U
German Wings
Germania Express
Globespan
Hapag Lloyd Express
Hellas Jet
Helvetic Airways
Iceland Express
Ryanair
Snalskjutsen
SnowFlake Airlines
Sterling
1Time
Kulula
Source: http://www.etn.nl/lcostair.htm, airline news
Air Arabia
Air Asia
Air Deccan
Athena Air Services
Citilink
Freedom Air
Lion Airways
One-Two-Go
Skymark Airlines
Skynet Asia Airways
ValuAir
Virgin Blue
Air Blue
Air One
BackpackersXpress
Jetstar
Nok Air
Pacific Blue
SkyAsia
Tiger Airways
Total 111 LCCs, 16 started/to start in 2003/2004
MIT
ICAT
Macro Scale Drivers
US Airline Net Profit
Cyclic Industry with Exponential Growth In Volatility Since Deregulation
6
4
Net Profit (2000 US$B)
2
0
47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03
-2
-4
-6
Deregulation
-8
-10
-12
Source: ATA, Form41, US Airlines all services
NB: 2001 data includes Air Trans Stabilization Act receipts
US Airlines Net Profit Model - 2002
MIT
ICAT
Best Fit of Undamped Oscillation
Cycle Period = 11.3 yr
eFolding Time = 7.9 yr
40
Predictions
2003 ($14.3B)
2004 ($13.2B)
2005 ($ 7.0B)
Net Profit (2000 US$B)
30
20
10
0
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
-10
-20
US
US Fit
-30
NB: Predictions are in constant 2000 dollars.
MIT
ICAT
Net Profit and Aircraft Deliveries
Hypothesize that instability driven by capacity
response phase lag
World Airlines Net Profits vs. Aircraft Deliveries
15
1200
5
1000
Net Profits
800
0
600
-5
Deliveries
400
-10
-15
1970
Source: ICAO data
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
200
2005
Aircraft Deliveries (unit)
Net Profit (Current US$ Bn)
10
MIT
ICAT
Simple Conceptual Model for
Capacity Effects
Economy
(GDP)
Latent
Latent Demand
Price
Demand
Demand
Model
Elasticity
Social Factors
Revenue
Traffic (RPM)
+-
Target
LF
Load
Factor
Demand
Revenue
Management
Yield
Variable
Cost
Capacity
(ASM)
++
Operating
Expense
VarCost/ASM
Capacity
Utilization
Rate (%)
Potential
Lift
(PASM)
Delay (months)
Tactical
Scheduling
Fixed Cost
Delay (yrs)
Net
Orders
Net Profit
Fleet
Planning
Retirement
MIT
ICAT
Growth Limits
Constraints vs Damping
40
Net Profit (2000 US$B)
30
20
Upside: Capacity, Market
10
0
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
-10
Downside: Financial
-20
-30
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
MIT
US Airline Performance Cycling Up
ICAT
Faster Than Predicted
40
Prediction
2003 ($15.3B)
Actual
2003 ($3.6B)
Net Profit (2000 US$B)
30
20
10
0
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
-10
-20
US
US Fit
-30
NB: predictions are in current dollars.
MIT
ICAT
Profitability Improvement
Factors
•
Cargo Airlines Profitable
•
Yields Turned the Corner
•
Wage Concessions
•
Distribution Costs
•
Debt Restructuring & Chapter 11
•
Pensions
•
Security Costs and Insurance?
•
Operating Efficiencies
•
Fuel
† US: $1 billion
† UA: $2.56 billion
† AA: $2 billion
† $1 billion
† (Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC))
† $4 billion
MIT
ICAT
Trends in Fuel Price
Historical: Average Jet Fuel and Crude Oil Prices
130
45
System (L)
Jan-04
Jan-03
Jan-02
0
Jan-01
40
Jan-00
5
Jan-99
50
Jan-98
10
Jan-97
60
Jan-96
15
Jan-95
70
Jan-94
20
Jan-93
80
Jan-92
25
Jan-91
90
Jan-90
30
Jan-89
100
Jan-88
35
Jan-87
110
Jan-86
Jet Fuel: Cents per Gallon
40
Crude Oil (R)
Source: ATA data; U.S. major, national, large regional passenger and cargo airlines; all services
Crude Oil: Dollars per Barrel
120
MIT
ICAT
•
•
2004 Fuel Hedge Levels
Reduce the risk of high fuel prices by hedging future fuel contracts
Many U.S. major carriers lack credit lines or cash to buy hedges
100%
90%
80%
80%
72%
57%
60%
41%
40%
34%
22%
20% 15%
20%
9%
0%
0%
0%
0%
AirTran
American
Continental
JetBlue
Northwest
EasyJet
Qantas
Alaska
American
Delta
Southwest
Air France
Lufthansa
West
Source: Lehman Brothers, MSNBC news, Goldman Sachs, airline news
MIT
ICAT
Growth Limits
Constraints vs Damping
40
Net Profit (2000 US$B)
30
20
Upside: Capacity, Market
10
0
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
-10
Downside: Financial
-20
-30
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
MIT
ICAT
Flight Delays Reemerging
OPSNET National Delays
60000
Total Delays
50000
2004
40000
2003
30000
2002
2001
20000
2000
10000
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Source: FAA OPSNET data
MIT
ICAT
Total Delays at
Chicago O’Hare Intl
ORD: Total Delays
14000
Total Delays
12000
10000
2004
8000
2003
6000
2002
2001
4000
2000
2000
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Source: FAA OPSNET data
MIT
ICAT
•
Runways
•
Weather
Airport System
Capacity Limit Factors
† Capacity Variability
† Convective Weather
•
Landside Limits
† Gates
† Terminals & Security
† Road Access
•
Downstream Constraints
•
Controller Workload
•
Environmental
† Community Noise
† Emissions
•
Safety
MIT
ICAT
Emergence of Secondary Airports
MSP
MHT
DTW
ORD
ORH
BOS
PVD
MDW
OAK/
SJC
STL
SFO
PHL
BLV
CVG
BUR
ISP
LGA / JFK / EWR
BWI
DCA
ONT
SNA
LAX
PHX
LGB
ATL
DFW
Congested major
airport
IAH
Secondary airport
FLL
MIA
(Traffic above 5% MAS M.S.)
Secondary airport
(Traffic below 5% MAS M.S.)
Constrained
secondary airport
Failed secondary
airport
MIT
ICAT
Additional Capacity at Region Level
18
Number of usable runways
(at any time and longer than 5000 ft)
16
14
12
Runways at surrounding
airports (50miles)
10
8
Core airports runways
6
4
2
0
Boston
region
Chicago
region
New York
region
Washington Miami region Los Angeles
region
region
San
Fransisco
region
MIT
ICAT
Identification of Secondary Airports
Case study of the Boston Metropolitan Area
PSM
MHT
ASH
LWM
BVY
BED
BOS Logan International Airport
50 m
iles
ORH
SFZ
PVD
EWB
Core airport
Secondary airport
Surrounding airports (with
runways length greater than 5000 ft)
MIT
ICAT
Density of Population
Population density
MHT
BOS Logan International Airport
50 m
iles
PVD
Population:
Core airport
Boston Logan (BOS)
Distribution of Population around Core and
Secondary Airports
Thousands
MIT
ICAT
Factors Influencing the Emergence of Sec. Airports
Distribution of population
300
Primary Basin
250
of Population
200
150
100
Population within 20 miles:
50
44
48
44
48
40
36
32
28
24
20
16
12
8
0
4
0
2.6 millions
Secondary airports
Thousands
Distance (in miles) from BOS airport
Dis tribution of population
300
250
200
150
Secondary Basin
100
of Population
50
Manchester (MHT)
40
36
32
28
24
20
16
12
250
200
150
100
Secondary Basin
50
Dis tanc e (in miles ) f rom PV D airport
1.2 million
48
44
40
36
32
28
24
20
16
12
of Population
8
0
0
Population within 20 miles:
8
Dis tr ib ution of popu lation
300
4
Providence (PVD)
Distance (in miles) f rom M HT airport
Thousands
0.6 million
0
Population within 20 miles:
4
0
MIT
ICAT
Factors Influencing the Emergence of Sec. Airports
Population:
Evolution in the Secondary Airport Location
Relative to Primary Basin of Population
Distance (miles) from the
primary basin of population to
the secondary airport
50
PVD
ISP
40
MHT
30
?
BWI
20
OAK
10
EWR
FLL
MDW
IAD
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Ye ar of Em e rge nce
MIT
ICAT
Factors Influencing the Emergence of Sec. Airports
Low Cost Carriers:
correlated
Secondary Airport Emergence is
with Low Cost Carrier entry.
Case : Boston Region
Millions
Enplanements at airports within 50 miles of BOS
16
14
BOS
Enplanements
12
10
8
Southwest entry
6
4
Southwest entry
PVD
2
MHT
0
1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
ASH
MHT
BED
ORH
Data source: Historical data from FAA Terminal Area Forecasts
BOS
PSM
BVY
PVD
EWB
SFZ
LWM
MIT
ICAT
•
FAA Air Traffic Responses
Air Traffic Organization Stood Up
† Russ Chew COO
† Performance Based Organization
† In Transition
•
Schedule Reductions at ORD
† “Voluntary” reduction*
‹ United and American to reduce flights by 5 percent between March
and October 2004
‹ United cancelled 50 daily flights, American cancelled 27
† Collaborative Decision Making
‹ Pilot Case
•
“Express Lanes” from Congested Core Systems
† Delay “peripheral” airports
Source: Subcommittee on Aviation; Hearing on Avoiding Summer Delays And A Review Of The FAA’s Air Traffic
Organization; May 13, 2004; http://www.house.gov/transportation/aviation/05-13-04/05-13-04memo.html
New York Center Airspace
MIT
ICAT
With Primary EWR Departure Fixes/Jet-routes
MSP, SEA
PDX, SLC
SFO
YMQ
BVT
J95
ELM, MKE
ORD
ZBW
ZNY
J3 6
GAYEL
ZOB ZNY
PIT, CLE
IND, MCI
DEN, PHX
LAS, LAX
HNL
J6 0
J64
J8 0
ZNY
ZDC
8
J4
LGA
JKF
WHITE
J20
5
9
J6
J7
IAD, BNA
DFW, SAN
MEX
COATE
TEB
ELIOT
PARKE
LANNA
BIGGY EWR
GREKI
MERIT
BOS
Europe
RIC, ORF, CHS, MCO, PBI, MIA
ATL, MSY, IAH BWI, DCA,
GSO, CLT, TPA Central and South America
Based on Lincoln Laboratory ITWS Map
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
Trends in Aircraft Size
Domestic
International
Total
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
Average seats per departure
MIT
ICAT
Data source: Form 41 Traffic data from Bureau of Transportation Statistics (includes Regional Jets and Turboprops)
MIT
ICAT
World Jet Fleet Summary
(as of May 14, 2003)
Total 17,995 Jet Aircraft
2500
Boeing
Airbus
BAe
Embraer
Bombardier
Dornier
Fokker
2558
Other
1918
2000
1500
1222
1129
1108
1019
966
1000
863
856
764
716
528
491
429
500
228
182
489
390
264
198
186
258
208
104 103
71
94
2
161 191
100 64
81 43
11
0
Source: Airclaims, published by ATW, July 2003
Other
Fokker 70
328JET
BAe 146
Avro RJ-85/100
Avro RJ-70
ERJ-145
ERJ-140
ERJ-135
CRJ900
CRJ700
CRJ200
A340
A330
A310
A300
A321
A320
A319
MD-11
DC-10
777
747
767
757
737NG
717
MD-90
MD-80
DC-9
DC-8
737 (CFMI)
737 (JT8D)
727
707
0
Others include L-1011, Fokker 100, Russia/Ukraine a/c
MIT
ICAT
U.S. Regional Jet Growth
1400
1200
1000
CRJ900
CRJ700
CRJ200
CRJ100
EMB135
EMB145
BAE145
800
600
400
200
Source: FAA registration data from 1995 until the present
2003Q4
2003Q2
2002Q4
2002Q2
2001Q4
2001Q2
2000Q4
2000Q2
1999Q4
1999Q2
1998Q4
1998Q2
1997Q4
1997Q2
1996Q4
1996Q1
1995Q3
1995Q1
0
MIT
ICAT
Most Common Regional Jets
ERJ 145 (50 seats)
CRJ 200 (50 seats)
About 400 aircraft in national fleet
About 2000 daily flights in January 2003
About 400 aircraft in national fleet
About 1500 daily flights in January 2003
‘98
‘99
‘00
Ap
r
Ju
l
O
ct
Ja
n
Ap
r
Ja
n
Ja
n
Ap
r
Ju
l
O
ct
Ja
n
Ap
r
Ju
l
O
ct
Ja
n
Ap
r
Ju
l
O
ct
Ja
n
MIT
ICAT
Regional Jet Density Growth
‘01
‘02
‘03
MIT
ICAT
Significant Regional Jet Growth
at Hub Airports
100%
80%
60%
Non-Hub, Non-Hub
Hub, Non-Hub
Hub, Hub
40%
20%
0%
1998
•
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
About 90% of regional jet flights depart from or arrive at a hub airport
MIT
ICAT
Form 41 Averages by Aircraft Type
Average
Trip
Length
Pilot
Cost/Block
Hour
Total Aircraft
Operating
Cost/ASM
Total Aircraft
Operating Cost/Trip
B737
663
430
0.05
4505
B757
1236
547
0.05
10326
A320
1094
411
0.04
6836
A319
931
460
0.05
5359
CRJ200
459
287
0.13
2838
CRJ700
542
215
0.06
2214
EMB135
351
181
0.10
1341
EMB145
354
169
0.09
1572
EMB140
386
187
0.08
1412
Aircraft
Type
MIT
ICAT
Total Operating Cost per ASM when Pilot Cost/Block
Hour is Normalized to $450
0.12
0.1
Base Line
0.08
0.06
0.04
Pilot Cost/Block
Hour = 450
0.02
0
B7
37
B7
57
A3
20
A3
CR 19
J2
CR 00
J
EM 7 00
B1
EM 3 5
B1
EM 4 5
B1
40
Cost/ASM
($)
0.16
0.14
MIT
ICAT
Total Operating Cost per Trip when Pilot Cost/Block
Hour is Normalized to $450
($)
12000
Base Line
8000
6000
Pilot Cost/Block
Hour = 450
4000
2000
EMB140
EMB145
EMB135
CRJ700
CRJ200
A319
A320
B757
0
B737
Cost/Trip
10000
MIT
ICAT
RJ-NB Boundary Blurred
Regional Jets
2400
New Aircraft
2200
B735/6
Range (nm)
ERJ170
Narrow-body
B737
ERJ190
2000
MD-90
1800
CRJ700
CRJ900
A319
CRJ200
1600
ERJ145
A318
1400
B717
1200
MD-80
DC-9
1000
20
40
60
80
100
120
A/C Seats
Source: based on manufactures’ a/c specifications. Full pax range of standard version
140
160
MIT
ICAT
•
March Deliveries
† Lot
† Alitalia
† US Airways
•
Orders
† US Airways
‹ 85
EMB 170
MIT
ICAT
•
First Flight
† 3/12/04
•
Orders
† Jet Blue
‹ 100
† Air Canada
‹ 45
EMB 190
MIT
ICAT
A-380
•
A380 Baseline
† Shrink
† Stretch
† ER Variants
•
555 passengers (3 class)
•
14,800km/8,000nm range
•
Payload: 330,000lbs over
10,400km/5,600nm
•
Rolls-Royce Trent 900
engines or GP7200 engines
•http://www.airbus.com/
MIT
ICAT
Boeing 7E7
•200 pax, 7800 nm range
•50 firm orders by All Nippon Airways (ANA)
•http://www.boeing.com/commercial/7e7/k62790.html
MIT
ICAT
Small Turbofan Passenger Aircraft
Eclipse Jet
Cessna Mustang
2100 orders
330+ orders
Adam 700
75 orders
HondaJet
MIT
ICAT
Security?
MIT
ICAT
Passenger Delays Variable
Airport as an Adaptive System
Add’l Pax
Screen
Gate
Boarding
Security
Check
Passengers
Check-In
Ckd Bag
Screen
Bags/Cargo
Ground
Transport
Gates
Bag Claim
Security
Point
Airside
Drop-off
Parking
Landside
Pick-up
Parking
MIT
ICAT
Declining Airport Screener
Workforce
Workforce of Federal Screeners
60000
56,000
55,600
55000
50000
48,300
45,300
43,800
Jan-04
May-04
45000
Congressional
Cap
40000
35000
30000
Dec-02
•
•
May-03
Sep-03
Deployed at 451 commercial airports
Allocation revised to cover busier airports this summer
Source: Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure – Aviation, Hearing on Aviation Security: Progress And Problems In Passenger And
Baggage Screening, Feb 12 2004; http://www.house.gov/transportation/aviation/02-12-04/02-12-04memo.html
TSA press releases; Washingtonpost (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A34892-2004May17.html)
MIT
ICAT
•
Immigration
US-VISIT System
† Photo, Fingerprinting, Biometrics
† Countries in the Visa Waiver Program: Andorra, Australia, Austria,
Belgium, Brunei, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland,
Italy, Japan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Monaco, Netherlands, New
Zealand, Norway, Portugal, San Marino, Singapore, Slovenia, Spain,
Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom
•
Parity Programs
† Brazil, China
MIT
ICAT
Source: Boeing Statistical Abstract
Safety Trend