Scanpower Asset Management Plan 2013/2023 Scanpower Asset
Transcription
Scanpower Asset Management Plan 2013/2023 Scanpower Asset
Scanpower Limited Asset Management Plan 1st April 2013 – 31st March 2023 Page 1 of 193 Table of Contents Ref 1.0 1.1 1.2 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 5.0 5.1 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 Description TERMS OF REFERENCE Date Complete and Period Covered Directors’ Declaration EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Purpose of the Plan Introduction to Scanpower Overview of Scanpower’s Asset Management System Asset Management Definition Organisational Capability Strategic Overview Network Development Planning Summary Summary of Life Cycle Management Approach used by Scanpower Network Expenditure Forecasts THE ASSET MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Background to the Asset Management Planning Process Asset Management Plan Design Compliance ASSET MANAGEMENT STRATEGY Scanpower’s Strategic and Asset Management Planning Process Stakeholder Analysis and the Commercial Environment Corporate Level Strategy Formulation PERFORMANCE OBJECTIVES AND SERVICE STANDARDS Asset Management Objectives ASSET KNOWLEDGE SET Service Area Large Customers Load Characteristics Energy Supplied and Demand Network Configuration Justification for Assets ASSET INFORMATION SYSTEMS CableCAD Geographic Information System NCS Customer / ICP Database National Electricity Registry SCADA System Records Proprietary Asset Databases Linkage Between Data Systems and Asset Management Processes Asset Management Information Systems Review Improvement Priorities Technical Standards and Guidelines Page 6 6 6 7 7 7 11 12 12 12 14 15 16 18 18 19 21 21 23 27 31 31 35 35 36 37 38 40 47 48 48 48 48 48 49 49 49 50 51 Page 2 of 193 Table of Contents continued Ref 7.10 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 APP A APP B Description Maturity of Information (AMMAT) ORGANISATIONAL CAPABILITY Accountabilities and Responsibilities Developing Asset Management Organisational Capability Competency Requirements Communication and Participation RISK MANAGEMENT Introduction to Risk Management Corporate Risk Management Insurance Asset Management Related Risk Management Process Significant Assumptions Business Model Risk NETWORK DEVELOPMENT PLANNING Network Development Plan Summary Planning Objectives Policies and Standards Planning Methodology Network Gap Analysis Automation and Protection Development Plan Network Development Plan Budget and Forecast Expenditure LIFE CYCLE MANAGEMENT Summary of Life Cycle Management Introduction to Life Cycle Management Asset Information by Category Asset Age Profiles Drivers for Maintenance Planning Maintenance Driver Analysis by Asset Category Maintenance Strategy and Practice Operating Budgets (Maintenance and Routine Capital Expenditure) EVALUATON OF PERFORMANCE Review of Progress Against Plan Review of Service Delivery Against Targets Review of Planning Process Objectives Performance Gap Analysis Public Safety Management APPENDIX A – AMMAT REPORT PREPARED BY UTILITY CONSULTANTS LTD COMPLIANCE ASSESSMENT MATRIX / REVIEW Page 51 54 54 57 57 58 60 60 61 68 69 74 74 76 76 77 77 83 84 126 137 139 139 139 140 142 153 156 169 171 180 180 183 185 185 191 192 193 Page 3 of 193 Table of Figures Ref 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Description Graphical Representation of 10 Year Network Expenditure Forecast The PAS 55 Asset Management System The Asset Management Hierarchy Scanpower Business Planning Process Scanpower Stakeholder Analysis Scanpower Area of Supply Scanpower Load Profile Curves (Dannevirke and Woodville POS) Typical Daily Consumption Profile Consumption by Feeder as at 5 March 2013 National Grid Configuration (Central North Island) Scanpower Geographic Lay Out of 11kV Distribution Lines Information Systems / Flow Schematic Asset Management Competency Framework Scanpower Organisational Chart Risk Management Framework Conceptual Risk Assessment Process Risk Treatment / Risk Characteristics Matrix Maximum Loadings by Feeder Contingent Capacity for Dog Conductor at 11kV Conceptual Asset Age Profile Curves / Interval Setting High Voltage Pole Age Profile by Material Type 11kV Overhead Conductor Age Profile (Length and Type by Year of Installation) 11kV Underground Cable Age Profile (Length and Type by Year of Installation) LV Overhead Conductor Age Profile (Length and Type by Year of Installation) LV Underground Cable Age Profile (Length and Type by Year of Installation) Small Transformer (<75kVA) Age Profile – Number Installed per Year by Capacity Large Transformer (<50kVA) Age Profile – Number Installed per Year by Capacity Air Break Switch Age Profile (Quantity by Year of Installation) Performance and Condition Factors – Conceptual Model Risk Based Analysis and Justification Model Tree Risk Assessment Tool Graphical Representation of 10 Year Network Expenditure Forecast SAIDI Monthly Performance Trend 2011/2012 SAIFI Monthly Performance Trend 2011/2012 Summary of Fault Cause Analysis Page 17 18 19 22 24 35 38 39 40 41 42 49 54 56 60 70 71 85 86 143 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 154 155 166 178 184 184 187 Table of Tables Ref 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Description Scanpower High Level Network Metrics Scanpower Key Network Data as at 31 March 2012 Scanpower Key Financial Data as at 31 March 2012 Scanpower Key Organisational Data at Present Date Summary Corporate Strategy Map 10 Year Network Expenditure Forecast (all Categories) Business Planning Document Summary Summary of Stakeholder Interests Page 8 10 10 11 13 16 23 25 Page 4 of 193 Table of Tables continued Ref 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 Description Summary Corporate Strategy Map Asset Management Objectives and Policies Scanpower Major Customer Details Dannevirke Feeder Data Woodville Feeder Data Scanpower AMMAT Review Recommendations Scanpower Corporate Risk Register Insurance Cover Summary Asset Management Related Risk Summary Scanpower Security Standard Contingent Capacity Calculations by Feeder Load Growth Forecast Assumptions Load Growth Forecasts by Feeder Reassessment of Feeder Capacity Across Reconfigured Network Summary of Security Strategy for Significant ICPs Revised Load / Capacity Forecast Under NDP Conditions Feeder Statistics and Technical Comparison Fuse Saver Deployment Summary (North Feeder) Fuse Saver Deployment Summary (Mangatera Feeder) Fuse Saver Deployment Summary (Weber Feeder) Network Development Plan Budget and Forecast Expenditure Asset Values by Category Asset Quantity by Asset Category and ODV Handbook Description Hardwood HV Poles Maintenance Driver Summary Hardwood HV Poles Maintenance,Prioritisation, Risk Scoring and Forecast Timing Hardwood LV Poles Maintenance Driver Summary Hardwood LV Poles Maintenance,Prioritisation, Risk Scoring and Forecast Timing Small Transformers – Maintenance Policy, Criticality, Risk and Gap Analysis Large Transformers – Maintenance Policy, Criticality, Risk and Gap Analysis Air Break Switch – Maintenance Policy, Criticality, Risk and Gap Analysis Tree Management and Maintenance – Drivers, Objectives, Policies and Strategies Historic Tree Cutting Statistics Forecast Tree Cutting Statistics HV Line Inspection Maintenance Strategy and Practice Below Ground Pole Inspections Strategy and Practice LV (Roadside) Inspections Maintenance Strategy and Practice LV Service Lines Maintenance Strategy and Practice HV Switchgear Visual Ground Inspections Strategy and Practice Ground Mounted Substations Strategy and Practice Pole Mounted Distribution Substations Strategy and Practice Tree Trimming Maintenance Strategy and Practice 10 Year Maintenance Expenditure Budget by Activity / Maintenance Type 10 Year Capital Expenditure Budget 10 Year Network Expenditure Forecast (All Categories) 2011/2012 Actual vs Budget Capital Expenditure by Asset and Expenditure Type 2011/2012 Actual vs Budget Maintenance Expenditure by Expenditure Type 2011/2012 SAIDI and SAIFI Reliability Performance (Actual vs Target) Page 29 31 36 38 39 53 62 68 71 80 87 89 92 107 112 116 127 133 134 135 137 140 141 156 157 158 159 160 161 163 164 167 168 169 169 169 170 170 170 171 171 172 175 178 180 182 183 Page 5 of 193 1. TERMS OF REFERENCE 1.1 Date Complete and Period Covered Scanpower’s Asset Management Plan relates to the period 1st April 2013 to 31st March 2023. The plan was completed in March 2013 and approved by Scanpower’s Board of Directors on 31th March 2013, prior to public disclosure on 1st April 2013. The plan is reviewed and restated on an annual rolling basis. The next plan will be available by 1st April 2014 and will cover the period 1st April 2014 to 31st March 2024. 1.2 Directors’ Declaration FORM 2 – CERTIFICATE FOR ASSET MANAGEMENT PLANS Pursuant to Requirement 11(2) We, Allan Benbow and Christine Donald, directors of Scanpower Limited certify that, having made all reasonable enquiry, to the best of our knowledge, the attached asset management plan of Scanpower Limited prepared for the purposes of requirement 7(1) of the Commerce Commission’s Electricity Distribution (Information Disclosure) Requirements 2008 complies with those Requirements. Allan Benbow Christine Donald Dated: 31st March 2013 Page 6 of 193 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2.1 Purpose of the Plan The purpose of this asset management plan is to document the processes, objectives, systems and performance measures employed by Scanpower Limited in the management of the company’s electricity distribution network assets. It also aims to document processes that ensure that Scanpower’s asset management strategy considers customers’ needs in terms of price and quality as required by the Commerce Act (Electricity Lines Thresholds) Notice 2003. Specifically, the asset management systems and processes documented herein, and undertaken in practice, are designed to ensure that: The network assets meet customers’ electricity supply requirements, both in terms of quality and cost. Assets are maintained on a sustainable and long term basis. Network performance targets are achieved. Operational and efficiency improvements are achieved over time. Scanpower is required to produce and disclose this document annually in accordance with the Electricity Information Disclosure Requirements 2004, the Revised Information Disclosure Requirements 2006, and the Revised Electricity Distribution (Information Disclosure) Requirements 2008 published by the Commerce Commission. 2.2 Introduction to Scanpower The primary business activity of Scanpower Limited is the ownership and operation of electricity distribution assets. These assets include overhead power lines, underground cables, transformers, switchgear, voltage regulators and peripheral communications and load control systems. The company’s network connects to the national electricity transmission grid operated by Transpower at two locations (Woodville and Dannevirke substations) and distributes electricity, on behalf of electricity retailers, to customer installations over a geographic area of ~2,500 square kilometres in the Southern Hawkes Bay / Northern Tararua region of New Zealand. The company’s head office is based at Oringi Business Park, Dannevirke. Scanpower was established during the 1920s and was known at that time as the “Dannevirke Electric Power Board”. Construction of the company’s distribution assets commenced at this time and has continued to develop and grow ever since. Following the Energy Companies Act 1992, the “Dannevirke Electric Power Board” was corporatised, having operated as a municipal / local body entity for the preceding seventy years. Scanpower Limited was established with shares being issued to the Scanpower Customer Trust, a body of five elected trustees who hold the investment in trust on behalf of the wider community. The beneficiaries of the trust are defined as any consumer connected to the Scanpower electricity network. Page 7 of 193 It is of key strategic significance to note that the company’s customers are also its owners via the trust ownership structure. Customers elect trustees on a triennial basis to represent their interests and to drive the direction of the company via a Statement of Corporate Intent (SCI). The SCI is produced annually in consultation between the Board of Directors of Scanpower Limited and the Trustees of the Scanpower Customer Trust. It details such things as the scope of the company’s operations and establishes targets in relation to financial performance, network reliability and network pricing. The annual Statement of Corporate Intent can be viewed by any interested parties via Scanpower’s website. Scanpower has a natural monopoly on electricity distribution in the geographic area in which it operates and therefore, as with the other twenty nine regional distribution companies in New Zealand, is subject to scrutiny and regulation from the Commerce Commission. Whilst Scanpower is exempt from certain aspects of this regulation by virtue of its customer-owned status, it is still obligated to make certain information disclosures relating to matters such as network pricing, asset management planning documentation, and general technical and financial disclosures. Of the twenty nine electricity distribution companies in New Zealand, Scanpower is relatively small and operates in a predominantly rural area. The following table highlights the scale of the company’s operations relative to other industry participants. Table 1 – Scanpower High Level Network Metrics Measure Scanpower Industry Median Ranking of 29 6,787 28,170 28th 7 9 16th Energy Density (kWh / ICP) 11,993 15,014 26th Demand Density (kW / km) 15 28 25th System Circuit Length (km) 1,039 3,505 26th $32.9m $286.5m 27th Connections (ICPs) Connection Density (ICPs / km) Value of System Fixed Assets (ODV) As is evident from the data above, in physical terms the Scanpower network is amongst the smallest in the country. In addition to this, both energy and demand density are also comparatively low. Since 1992 the electricity distribution sector has seen numerous mergers and acquisitions, resulting in the number of network companies falling from over fifty to the current twenty nine, although this kind of activity has tailed off in the past five or so years. Over this time, whilst a range of options has been considered, the owners of Scanpower have indicated a strong preference for continued local ownership and representation of customer / owner interests at a local level. For this reason, both the Trust and Company remain committed to the current ownership structure and are confident that despite its size, Scanpower can operate as a stand-alone utility and deliver levels of service and cost that meet or exceed the expectations of its key stakeholders. Page 8 of 193 A review undertaken by the Trust in 2011, including a survey of all customers, returned a 98% approval rating for continuation of the existing ownership structure. With this background in mind, to achieve economies of scale in terms of administration and overheads, and to provide business growth, since 2000 Scanpower has actively pursued a strategy of diversifying into new areas of business with some success. In addition to the core network business, the company is now involved in the following activities: Industrial scale cold storage Property development and leasing Power line contracting Plumbing and electrical contracting Supply and installation of solar water heating systems Meter reading Tree and vegetation contracting Manufacturing of knitwear (via a third share in a joint venture company) For the financial year ending 31 March 2012, approximately 50% of the company’s revenue was derived from these interests, with the balance coming via the electricity network business. The diversity in the portfolio of Scanpower’s business activities is pertinent from a strategic perspective as correspondingly corporate level strategy has two distinct components: Corporate level network strategy Corporate level strategy for unregulated / new business ventures As this document is concerned with the electricity distribution assets of Scanpower, the remainder of this discussion of corporate strategy will focus on that relevant to the network business. By way of further background to the organisation, the tables below provide a summary of key network information, financial metrics and other company data. Page 9 of 193 Table 2 – Scanpower Key Network Data as at 31 March 2012 Measure Quantity / Details 2,500km2 Geographic area covered Customer connections (ICPs) Main centres / townships supplied 6,787 Dannevirke, Woodville, Norsewood, Weber, Ormondville, Kumeroa Connections to National Grid 2 GXP Locations of grid connections Dannevirke, Woodville Maximum coincident system demand 17MW Electricity volumes carried 87GWh Length of overhead 11kV lines 843km Length of underground 11kV cables 11km Length of overhead low voltage lines 122km Length of underground low voltage cables 64km Total system length 1,040km Installed transformer capacity 65MVA Average age of system fixed assets 24 years Average expected life of system assets 52 years Average age as a % of expected life 46% % of assets within 10 years of total life 18% Table 3 – Scanpower Key Financial Data as at 31 March 2012 Measure Quantity / Details Total operating revenue $13,225,000 Network line revenue $6,737,000 Earnings before interest, customer discounts & tax $2,437,000 Customer discounts paid $1,336,000 Total assets $38,505,000 Shareholders’ equity $27,543,000 Regulatory value of network assets (DRC) $33,162,000 Page 10 of 193 Table 4 – Scanpower Key Organisational Data at Present Date Measure Quantity / Details Total staff numbers 83 Office / depot locations Oringi Business Park, Dannevirke (Head Office) Gordon Street, Dannevirke (Customer Services) Feilding (External Contracting Depot) Paraparaumu (External Contracting Depot) 2.3 Overview of Scanpower’s Asset Management System Scanpower has developed an asset management system based on the BSI PAS 55: 2008 standard for the management of the electricity distribution assets that constitute its core business. This standard is considered by Scanpower as ‘best practice’ and a comprehensive methodology for compliance with the Asset Management Plan (AMP) disclosure requirements. This document is structured around both the core elements of PAS 55 and regulatory prescription. A cross-reference between the AMP and the prescription is provided in Appendix B. This document is structured with the following core elements: A description of the asset management system itself including a description of information systems, the organisation’s structure and capability, and a statement of the maturity of systems and processes. Derivation of the asset management objectives, service standards, and KPIs starting from Scanpower’s corporate level strategic objectives. A more detailed overview of the network assets, their configuration and the characteristics of the consumers/load they serve than outlined in the introduction above. Detail of the company’s risk management processes and their follow-on down to asset management practices. A comprehensive analysis and derivation of the Network Development Plan. This is essentially the planning activity Scanpower undertakes to ensure its network is capable of meeting consumer needs and company objectives into the future. It documents the processes for optimal solution selection and a forecast of resulting development expenditure. The details of Scanpower’s asset life cycle management policies, objectives and practices. This includes the derivation of maintenance strategies, operating practices, and asset renewal programs. The budgets associated with various work programs are presented in this section. Page 11 of 193 2.4 Asset management is a quality management process and as such closes the cycle off with a review of performance against the plan. This is the final section of the AMP but it also is an input into the next cycle. For example, it includes an analysis of fault causes, which is used to identify key performance issues and target associated key assets. Asset Management Definition Asset Management is defined by BSI PAS 55:2008 as: The systematic and coordinated activities and practices through which an organisation optimally and sustainably manages its assets and asset systems, their performance, risks and expenditures over their lifecycles for the purpose of achieving its organisational strategic plan. 2.5 Organisational Capability In addition to adopting the PAS 55 standard as the basis of its asset management practices, Scanpower has also: Established a NZS 7901: 2008 compliant Public Safety Management System. Improved coordination of asset management and safety systems with its ISO 31000 risk management processes. Restructured its staffing and resources to create a Network Division which includes its own field crews to maintain focus on the core business and prevent distraction from external contracting activity. Scanpower has also increased the tree cutting resources available to the community. 2.6 Strategic Overview Consistent with the PAS55 approach, Scanpower’s asset management policies, strategies, plans and implementation are driven directly by the organisation’s corporate level strategy. The details of the over-arching corporate strategy are presented in the strategy map below. It is this corporate strategy that feeds into the asset management planning process, setting the high level objectives and expectations of the network business. By following this process Scanpower aims to ensure that the organisation’s corporate level strategy, or strategic intent, flows through all asset management activities. Page 12 of 193 Table 5 – Summary Corporate Strategy Map Company Vision (What we aspire to achieve) Delivering more to our community by providing a high quality electricity distribution network and promoting economic growth. Company Mission (Our fundamental purpose) To provide our region with a reliable, safe, cost‐effective and sustainable electricity distribution network, whilst using our innovation and skills to develop new business and employment opportunities within our local communities. Strategic Objective 1 ‐ To deliver a reliable and safe supply of electricity to our customers Detailed Objective Target / KPI To achieve SAIDI and SAIFI results within the top Use of industry benchmarking studies quartile of industry performance. SAIDI < 90 customer minutes SAIFI < 1 customer interruption Maintain supply voltages within regulatory / Supply voltage maintained within +/‐ 5% appropriate levels. tolerance levels Number of customer voltage complaints Provide a level of security of supply appropriate to Appropriate security standards established and various connection groups / sizes maintained Maintaining and replacing assets on a sustainable and PAS 55 asset management methodology adopted best practice basis AMP feedback from Commerce Commission review and industry ranking relative to other companies Planned capital and maintenance activities completed within time and financial budgets Total asset life cycle management approach adopted Operating a compliant and effective public safety Scanpower PSMS achieves Telarc certification for management system (PSMS) compliance Zero harm caused to members of the public Forecasting and responding to load growth with Capacity exists to accommodate all reasonably network development initiatives that ensure foreseeable growth within appropriate community and customer needs are met into the timeframes whilst maintaining quality standards. future. Network development adopts lowest cost, effective solutions including consideration of distributed generation and demand side solutions. Strategic Objective 2 ‐ To provide a cost effective supply of electricity to our customers Detailed Objective Target / KPI For Scanpower customers to pay lines charges Use of industry benchmarking and pricing studies (excluding transmission costs) that having taken into Distribution revenue per ICP (post discounts) account annual discounts are in the lowest quartile in Cents per kWH (post discounts) the country when compared to other networks. Annual cost for 8,000 kWH pa consumer To maintain financial performance in terms of Use of industry benchmarking and pricing studies operating expenditure that supports this pricing Operational expenditure per ICP per annum objective and is better than the industry average. Page 13 of 193 Table 5 continued – Summary Corporate Strategy Map Strategic Objective 3 ‐ To earn a commercially appropriate return on our assets Detailed Objective Target / KPI Achieve a return on investment from our network Return on Investment (prior to discounts) of assets that is consistent with the expectations of ~7.5% on regulatory asset base value. shareholders and commercially appropriate relative to the industry in which we operate. Strategic Objective 4 ‐ To deliver financial benefits to our community via the network discount Detailed Objective Target / KPI To return a level of financial benefit to the customer Annual discount payment equal to, or greater shareholders on an annual basis using the network than, $1.5m per annum, equating to $255 each discount mechanism that is consistent with the for typical residential customers. expectations of the Customer Trust. 2.7 Network Development Planning Summary This section of the asset management plan details the process of assessing the Network’s future development requirements in order to deliver on Scanpower’s long term business objectives. It records the asset management strategy and planning component of the Asset Management Conceptual Model. That is, it is the Network Division’s Strategic Plan as applied to the assets on which the core business is based. It is referred to as the Network Development Plan. The key features of the existing network with regard to its strategic planning environment are: The network has no sub-transmission system which means it is capacity and voltage constrained. While peak load can be managed to these constraints, load growth results in longer duration of constraints being experienced by consumers. The network has minimal interconnection capability particularly in the urban LV networks. No part of the network meets an N-1 security standard. Some of the more significant differentiators of this network to its peers are; it has very little single phase distribution and its protection/switching is largely still HV expulsion fused based. That is, the network is a traditional, predominantly overhead, manually operated, lineman orientated asset. In a nutshell, the Development Plan seeks to minimise the amount of traditional line orientated development associated with the legacy centralised grid connected power supply, that is becoming increasingly less competitive with the alternative distributed energy systems approach now being quite rapidly enabled by technology. Scanpower seeks to re-align and re-optimise its network over the next 10 years for operation in a distributed energy environment. More specifically: Page 14 of 193 Provide and distribute capacity sourced from the grid on a just in time basis. The investment environment is becoming shorter relative to the longevity and lumpiness of traditional line asset development. Avoid investment in transmission and sub-transmission asset (lines solutions) in favour of Distributed Generation, Smart Grid, etc. (non-line alternative solutions). Shift its network development towards the consumer end i.e. the LV network and its interconnection in order to make it ready to receive PV and EV connection in particular. Develop its network as a platform from which it can offer distributed generation and energy brokering services. The key development projects determined by this planning process are: Development of 11kV bussing points with indoor switchboards and sub-feeders with improved interconnection at 4 key locations in the network: Matamau, Dannevirke North, Dannevirke South, and Oringi. Application of voltage correction via regulators and/or capacitors at the bussing points and other optimal locations. Improving contingent interconnection. Targeted security provision via generation embedded at the load. Improved systems engineering of protection and automation systems. capacity through increased substation density and This program amounts to approximately $3.5m of expenditure over the next 5 years. 2.8 Summary of Asset Life Cycle Management Approach used by Scanpower Scanpower does not have a significant population of any specific category of asset that is considered critical in terms its primary service delivery objectives – keeping the lights on. The bulk of its asset is an 11kV/400V pole mounted electricity distribution network. The age and condition related replacement of hardwood poles in this network is the primary focus of Scanpower’s life cycle management activity. This plan has improved the targeting of replacements of assets and network segments where condition is driving performance. Analysis indicates that more attention/pace is warranted on the LV network which has passed the optimal point for renewal (but does not affect regulatory performance benchmarking). The transformer population is approaching its optimal service life and because it is relatively expensive to renew, it will be pre-emptively replaced via opportunistic renewal policies as part of other work programmes in order to spread replacement over a wider time period. Page 15 of 193 Service line condition and the need for its replacement, is an issue that affects Scanpower’s costs although these are not assets it owns. The industry is still in the process of determining how it will respond to this issue. Tree management is currently a significant non-asset but performance driving issue currently on Scanpower’s network. Forestry outside the regulatory clearances is the main contributor. Scanpower has established major resourcing capacity to address these issues. Tree trimming funded by the network is a major component of life cycle costs and this will continue for several cycles until cost responsibility has been transferred to tree owners. While the current pole renewal program continues for another 8 years, life cycle management expenditure will remain reasonably constant at approximately $1.7m p.a. excluding tree trimming. 2.9 Network Expenditure Forecasts Total network expenditure for the coming ten year period is summarised in the table below, and is broken down into Maintenance expenditure, Routine capital expenditure and Network Development capital expenditure Table 6 – 10 Year Network Expenditure Forecast (all Categories) Type 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 $477,849 $447,852 $447,855 $447,858 $447,861 Routine Capital $1,250,845 $1,250,845 $1,210,000 $1,210,000 $1,210,000 Network Development $1,243,449 $869,194 $592,245 $314,946 $515,947 Total $2,972,143 $2,567,891 $2,250,100 $1,972,804 $2,173,808 Type 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 $436,314 $436,317 $436,320 $436,323 $436,326 $1,210,000 $1,210,000 $1,132,762 $545,325 $545,325 $89,248 $46,749 $46,750 $131,751 $25,752 $1,735,562 $1,693,066 $1,615,832 $1,113,399 $1,007,403 Maintenance Maintenance Routine Capital Network Development Total The expenditure trends are plotted in the chart below. As is evident, network development capital expenditure is relatively significant for the first five years of the current planning horizon (most notably in the years commencing 2013 and 2014) as projects are completed to ameliorate foreseeable constraints on the network. Thereafter, network development expenditure tails off. Through to 2020, routine capital expenditure on asset replacement remains relatively consistent at ~$1.2m per annum. Similarly however, this also tails off towards the latter end of the planning period, primarily as a result of changing out hardwood poles on the network. In terms of maintenance expenditure, it is anticipated that selective technology adoption and ongoing progress with the tree management programme will produce some degree of savings over time. Page 16 of 193 Figure 1 – Graphical Representation of 10 Year Network Expenditure Forecast Page 17 of 193 3. THE ASSET MANAGEMENT SYSTEM 3.1 Background to the Asset Management Planning Process As part of an on-going process to improve the company’s asset management practices, over the past year Scanpower has decided to adopt the PAS 55 approach to physical asset management. “PAS 55 – Optimal Management of Physical Assets” is a publicly available specification issued the British Standards Institution. It provides guidance and a 28 point requirements checklist of good practices in physical asset management, and is relevant to industries such as gas, electricity and water utilities, road, air and rail transport systems, and the natural resources sector. PAS 55 is now emerging as a de facto, world-wide best practice specification for businesses seeking to demonstrate a high level of professionalism in whole life cycle management of their physical assets. It is on this basis that Scanpower has decided to adopt such an approach, and during the past year both the Chief Executive and Network Manager have attended PAS 55 training courses endorsed by the UK Institute of Asset Management and delivered by an approved training organisation, AMCL (Asset Management Consulting Limited). The figure below illustrates the conceptual PAS 55 asset management model. As is evident, the key driver of asset management strategy and planning is the organisational strategic plans. Figure 2 – The Asset Management System Page 18 of 193 It is a key feature of the PAS 55 model that asset management strategy is driven by the organisational strategic plan. This enables the establishment of a “strategic line of sight” that is evident at all levels of the organisation, and pervades all asset management activity as per the conceptual diagram below. Figure 3 – The Asset Management Hierarchy 3.2 Asset Management Plan Design Compliance This document has been structured to directly reflect the core elements of the PAS55 Asset Management Conceptual Model presented above. Scanpower has adopted PAS55 as a “best practice”. The AMP design is intended to comply with this standard in the first instance but it also attempts to interpret and align content to display clear intent to meet disclosure prescription. It is sectioned with the following core elements: Asset Management Strategy – detailing the process of deriving asset management strategy, objectives and policy from corporate strategy and company objectives. Asset Knowledge – description of assets, information systems, and processes. Organisational Capability – description of the people enablers, organisational structure, and the processes for assessing need and developing capability Page 19 of 193 Asset Performance Objectives and Service Standards – derivation of performance standards from strategy objectives. Risk Assessment – detail of the risk management reviews and plans at corporate and network levels. Network Development Planning – detail of the planning process and derivation of the plan for meeting future demand and sustaining delivery on objectives. Life Cycle Management – detail of maintenance and renewal programs, reliability, quality and safety improvements. Evaluation of Performance – review of progress against plan as closure to the asset management continuous improvement quality circle. The AMP serves an additional regulatory role of formally disclosing Scanpower’s asset management capability and performance. The content of this plan is targeted directly at meeting prescribed disclosure. To demonstrate this and assist readers with identifying disclosure compliance the follow cross reference table is provided. Appendix B provides a table cross referencing AMP Disclosure Prescription in the Commerce Act (Electricity Distribution Disclosure) to the structure of this AMP document which follows a PAS55 framework. Page 20 of 193 4.0 ASSET MANAGEMENT STRATEGY 4.1 Scanpower’s Strategic and Asset Management Planning Process Scanpower operates a rolling ten year, organisational level, strategic planning cycle with reviews undertaken by the Board of Directors and Executive Management team on an annual basis. During these reviews, a variety of strategic management techniques are used, including: Assessment of current strategy and historical performance. Internal organisational analysis (strengths and weaknesses). External organisational analysis (opportunities and threats). Environmental scanning environmental). Stakeholder analysis / customer needs assessment. Portfolio analysis of the mix of the company’s business activities. Confirmation / revision of the organisation’s vision and mission. Confirmation / revision of the organisation’s strategic intent and key goals. Strategy formulation and selection. Scenario planning. Establishment of key performance metrics. Identification of critical success factors and risks. (political, economic, social, technological, legal, Following the annual review, the ten year strategic plan is summarised in the form of a document called the Statement of Corporate Intent. This details high level aspects of the organisational strategy such as: Company vision, mission and strategic objectives. The nature and scope of the company’s activities (industries, markets etc). Capital structure and dividend policies. Significant accounting policies. Acquisition / investment procedures. Key performance indicators and associated targets. Page 21 of 193 The Statement of Corporate Intent is submitted by the Scanpower Limited Board of Directors to the Trustees of the Scanpower Customer Trust for comment, amendment and ultimately approval. It is notable that the Trustees, as advocates of both investor and customer interests, have the authority of final approval (or otherwise) over the key aspects of organisational level strategy. Following approval of the Statement of Corporate Intent, and associated key organisational level strategic drivers, by the Trustees of the Scanpower Customer Trust, the Executive Management team has responsibility for preparing business plans aimed at delivering the strategic objectives of the company. This includes annual tactical plans and budgets. The Board of Directors approve these plans and budgets, and monitor progress on a monthly basis. At the end of each year, company performance against annual business plans and budgets is reviewed, and this feeds back into the annual review of the ten year strategic plan. A diagrammatic representation of the overall planning process is provided below. Figure 4 – Scanpower Business Planning Process The table below summarises the key components of the overall business planning process with details of the review frequency. Page 22 of 193 Table 7 – Business Planning Document Summary Planning Document Planning Horizon Review Frequency Organisational Strategic Plan 10 years Annual Asset Management Plan 10 years Annual various – typically 5 years Annual 3 years Annual 1 year Monthly Non-Network Division Strategic Plans Statement of Corporate Intent Divisional Business Plans & Budgets 4.2 Stakeholder Analysis and the Commercial Environment As the conceptual diagram of the PAS 55 on page 8 illustrates, key inputs / drivers of the organisational strategy setting process are: Customer requirements. Legislative requirements (including regulatory factors). Investor requirements. Influencing factors from the external commercial environment Customers, investors and legislators / regulators are stakeholders in Scanpower Limited whose requirements can be examined using a stakeholder analysis process. The influence of the broader commercial environment is best analysed using strategic management tools such as PESTLE (political, economic, social, technological, legal, environment) analysis, scenario planning and observation of general electricity related trends. To identify the range of key stakeholders in Scanpower Limited, the company has considered questions such as: Who are the purchasers of the company’s services? With whom does the company have a contractual relationship? Who owns the company? To whom does the company have a contractual, ethical or social obligation? To whom does the company have a statutory or regulatory reporting obligation? Where are the company’s assets located? Page 23 of 193 Who may directly or indirectly come into contact with the company’s assets? Who are the company’s key suppliers, contractors and customers? Which customers / agencies rely most heavily on the company’s services? What regulatory / industry bodies does the company interact with? To whom does the company have a safety management obligation? What key pieces legislation is the company bound to adhere to? A review of the key stakeholders in Scanpower’s electricity distribution business identified the groups illustrated in the diagram below. Figure 5 – Scanpower Stakeholder Analysis Having identified these stakeholder groups it is necessary to ascertain the particular interests of each, and consider these in the strategy formulation process. These are summarised as follows: Page 24 of 193 Table 8 – Summary of Stakeholder Interests Stakeholder Nature of Interest / Desired Outcomes A reliable supply of electricity with few or no interruptions. A quality supply of electricity in terms of stable voltage and availability of hot water (where electric). Customers A safe supply of electricity. Connected Electricity Consumers & Consumer Advocacy Groups Timely response to service requests / issues / enquiries. Competitive level of network charges relative to others. Receipt of a meaningful annual network discount payment. Readily available information on network matters. Ease of access to the network in contractual terms. Network charges are clear and understood. Information requests responded to in a timely manner. Line losses are minimised to the extent possible. Network billing is timely, accurate and compliant. Compliance with regulatory information disclosure and reporting requirements. Legislative requirements are understood and adhered to. EGCC A general expectation of improving performance over time. Legislature Expectation of participation in industry consultation processes. Value of investment in Scanpower Limited is protected and growing over time. Shareholders receive a meaningful annual return via the network discount mechanism. Scanpower performs to the targets set by the Trust in the annual Statement of Corporate Intent. Investors Scanpower Customer Trust & Connected Customer Shareholders / Trust Beneficiaries Material business risks are identified and mitigated over the long term, in particular technology / obsolescence risk. Scanpower exhibits responsible corporate behaviours and governance practices. Assets are maintained on an appropriate and sustainable basis over time. Regular reporting on performance and communication with the company. Ownership and control are retained locally. Scanpower generally outperforms industry norms in key areas. Customers Electricity Retailers Regulatory Bodies Commerce Commission Electricity Authority Page 25 of 193 Table 8 continued – Summary of Stakeholder Interests Stakeholder Nature of Interest / Desired Outcomes A healthy and safe working environment. Training and development opportunities. Other Stakeholders Fair levels of remuneration. Employees Appropriate equipment and tools provided. Absence of undue work related stress. Scanpower is resourced at an appropriate level. Personal safety as it relates to electricity assets. Effective emergency response procedures are functioning. Scanpower is easy to contact / interact with. Aesthetic impact of electricity assets is minimised, within reasonable cost boundaries. Land access rights are respected and procedures observed. Other Stakeholders Easement rights are documented appropriately. Land and Tree Owners Tree regulations are communicated clearly and understood. Tree related processes and work practices comply with regulations. As a utility operator, Scanpower participates in regional civil defence and emergency preparedness planning. Scanpower has appropriate disaster recovery and business continuity plans in place. Documentation such as outage planning and asset management plans are readily available. Other Stakeholders District and regional council plans are complied with. Regional Authorities Cooperation with other utilities (water, roading etc). Other Stakeholders General Public Other Stakeholders Disaster Recovery Agencies / Emergency Services Whilst no formal weighting has been attributed to each of the stakeholder groups, the customer shareholders must rank highly as both the owners of the company and the purchasers of its services. From this perspective, the key needs arising from this analysis are therefore: A high quality, reliable supply of electricity A competitive service in terms of pricing and underlying cost structures A safe supply of electricity Responsive service and ease of access for interacting with the company Page 26 of 193 In terms of the investor stakeholders, the Trustees of the Scanpower Customer Trust, the key needs arising are: The value of the investment in Scanpower Limited is protected and grown over the long term. The investment achieves an appropriate rate of return and the relationship between network pricing and annual customer discounts is balanced in a way acceptable to the Trust. These factors, and other issues arising from the above analysis, are taken forward into the strategy formulation stage documented below. 4.3 Corporate Level Strategy Formulation Having taken into account the key needs arising from the stakeholder analysis, the explicitly stated details of Scanpower’s corporate level strategy (as approved by both the Scanpower Limited Board of Directors and the Trustees of the Scanpower Customer Trust) are detailed below. 4.3.1 Company Vision At the top of the strategic hierarchy is the company vision statement; this is intended to encapsulate the type of organisation that Scanpower aspires to be and how it wishes to be seen. Scanpower’s vision statement is as follows: “Delivering more to our community by providing a high quality electricity distribution network and promoting economic growth” 4.3.2 Company Mission The company vision is followed by its mission statement. This intended to be a more explicit statement of the company’s fundamental purpose and its high level objectives. Scanpower’s mission statement is as follows: “To provide our region with a reliable, safe, cost-effective and sustainable electricity distribution network, whilst using our innovation and skills to develop new business and employment opportunities within our local communities” 4.3.3 Company Strategy The corporate level strategy cascades down further into a more explicit set of high level organisational goals / strategic objectives. These are detailed below: 1. To deliver a reliable and safe supply of electricity to our customers. 2. To provide a cost effective supply of electricity to our customers. Page 27 of 193 3. To earn a commercially appropriate rate of return on our assets. 4. To generate additional earnings from other commercial activities. 5. To deliver financial benefits to our community via the network discount. 6. To add value to our region through our operating practices and community initiatives. 4.3.3 Company Strategic Objectives Clearly it is necessary to take each of these strategies and both clarify and quantify (where possible) what the specific terms mean and what constitutes success in achieving them. For example, in the case of the first strategy relating to reliability and safety of supply, this can be broken down further into the following constituent detailed objectives: Achieving a network reliability performance in terms of SAIDI and SAIFI that is consistently within the top quartile of industry performance when ranked against other lines companies. Maintaining supply voltages that are within regulatory / appropriate levels throughout the network. Providing a level of security of supply that is appropriate to connection groups on the network. Maintaining and replacing assets on a sustainable and best practice basis. Operating a compliant and effective public safety management system. Forecasting and responding to load growth with network development initiatives that ensure community and customer needs are met into the future. By expanding each of the strategies into a set of objectives in this manner, and attributing performance measurement criteria or key performance indicators to each, it is possible to present the consolidated corporate level strategy as per the “strategy map” provided as Table 9 below. It should be noted that for the purposes of this asset management plan, strategies (4) and (6) which relate to development of other business opportunities and community initiatives have been omitted. This is on the basis that they relate primarily to Scanpower’s nonregulated / non-network business activities and therefore are of limited relevance to this document. The network related strategies are further developed into specific asset management objectives with associated performance standards in the following section of this document. Page 28 of 193 Table 9 – Summary Corporate Strategy Map Company Vision (What we aspire to achieve) Delivering more to our community by providing a high quality electricity distribution network and promoting economic growth. Company Mission (Our fundamental purpose) To provide our region with a reliable, safe, cost‐effective and sustainable electricity distribution network, whilst using our innovation and skills to develop new business and employment opportunities within our local communities. Strategic Objective 1 ‐ To deliver a reliable and safe supply of electricity to our customers Detailed Objective Target / KPI To achieve SAIDI and SAIFI results within the top Use of industry benchmarking studies quartile of industry performance. SAIDI < 90 customer minutes SAIFI < 1 customer interruption Maintain supply voltages within regulatory / Supply voltage maintained within +/‐ 5% appropriate levels. tolerance levels Number of customer voltage complaints Provide a level of security of supply appropriate to Appropriate security standards established and various connection groups / sizes maintained Maintaining and replacing assets on a sustainable and PAS 55 asset management methodology adopted best practice basis AMP feedback from Commerce Commission review and industry ranking relative to other companies Planned capital and maintenance activities completed within time and financial budgets Total asset life cycle management approach adopted Operating a compliant and effective public safety Scanpower PSMS achieves Telarc certification for management system (PSMS) compliance Zero harm caused to members of the public Forecasting and responding to load growth with Capacity exists to accommodate all reasonably network development initiatives that ensure foreseeable growth within appropriate community and customer needs are met into the timeframes whilst maintaining quality standards. future. Network development adopts lowest cost, effective solutions including consideration of distributed generation and demand side solutions. Strategic Objective 2 ‐ To provide a cost effective supply of electricity to our customers Detailed Objective Target / KPI For Scanpower customers to pay lines charges Use of industry benchmarking and pricing studies (excluding transmission costs) that having taken into Distribution revenue per ICP (post discounts) account annual discounts are in the lowest quartile in Cents per kWH (post discounts) the country when compared to other networks. Annual cost for 8,000 kWH pa consumer To maintain financial performance in terms of Use of industry benchmarking and pricing studies operating expenditure that supports this pricing Operational expenditure per ICP per annum objective and is better than the industry average. Page 29 of 193 Table 9 continued – Summary Corporate Strategy Map Strategic Objective 3 ‐ To earn a commercially appropriate return on our assets Detailed Objective Target / KPI Achieve a return on investment from our network Return on Investment (prior to discounts) of assets that is consistent with the expectations of ~7.5% on regulatory asset base value. shareholders and commercially appropriate relative to the industry in which we operate. Strategic Objective 5 ‐ To deliver financial benefits to our community via the network discount Detailed Objective Target / KPI To return a level of financial benefit to the customer Annual discount payment equal to, or greater shareholders on an annual basis using the network than, $1.5m per annum, equating to $255 each discount mechanism that is consistent with the for typical residential customers. expectations of the Customer Trust. It is this corporate strategy that feeds into the asset management planning process, setting the high level objectives and expectations of the network business. The next stage is to take this high level strategy and translate it into appropriate: Asset management policies Asset management strategies Asset management objectives Asset management plans By following this process Scanpower aims to ensure that the organisation’s corporate level strategy, or strategic intent, flows through all asset management activities. This is covered in the next section of this document. Page 30 of 193 5.0 PERFORMANCE OBJECTIVES AND SERVICE STANDARDS This section of the AMP describes the service and performance targets for the strategic objectives set for Scanpower’s electricity lines business that are directly relevant to the management of the Network Division’s assets. There are four strategic business objectives derived in Section 4 of this Plan. Three are financial objectives and therefore not directly related to the management of physical assets deployed in the field. However, they are all influenced by the cost efficiency with which assets are managed over their life cycle and are dependent on the sustainability issues associated with continual development of the network to ensure the asset base itself is fit for purpose and efficient. The primary strategic objective related directly to the physical assets and their service delivery is: “To deliver a reliable and safe supply of electricity to our customers” 5.1 Asset Management Objectives The subordinate asset management objectives associated with this business unit level objective are summarised in the table below. Also included in each case is the justification for each subordinate objective, a description of the associated asset management policies and targets / key performance indicators. It should be noted that targets applied at the planning stage are leading KPIs. Monitoring of subsequent outcomes is a lagging KPI. Table 10 – Asset Management Objectives and Policies Asset Management Objective To achieve SAIDI and SAIFI results in the top quartile of industry performance JUSTIFICATION These metrics are primary measures by which consumers can compare service with other companies and countries. ASSET MANAGEMENT POLICIES To constrain all outages to under 6500 CML (customer minutes lost ‐ equating to 1 SAIDI minute), through application of work practice innovation and technology deployment where justified. Security and reliability initiatives will be tested against an assessment of the Value of Lost Load (VoLL). PERFORMANCE TARGETS / KPIs Achieve upper quartile performance per industry benchmarking studies. SAIDI < 90 customer minutes. SAIFI < 1 customer interruption. Page 31 of 193 Table 10 continued – Asset Management Objectives and Policies Asset Management Objective To maintain supply voltages within regulatory and appropriate quality levels JUSTIFICATION The network is becoming constrained and modern power electronics in consumers installations is affecting power quality so more active monitoring and management is desirable. ASSET MANAGEMENT POLICIES To maximise acceptable 11kV input voltage able to be delivered via Transpower’s voltage control equipment at GXPs – Scanpower has none of its own. To utilise and develop Load Management Systems, Special Protection Schemes, and DSM (demand side management). To require consumers to meet PFC, harmonic, and service line volt drop standards. To minimise conductor upgrade and new line construction in favour of voltage control and DG. PERFORMANCE TARGETS / KPIs Supply voltage maintained within +/‐ 5% tolerance levels at the consumers POS (point of supply). Number of customer voltage complaints. Asset Management Objective To provide a level of security of supply appropriate to various customer connection groups / sizes JUSTIFICATION Standards need to be meaningful to end users if they are to add value. This is primarily considered an issue of competiveness for local business. NOTE: Industry standards are based on load densities higher than those that bear any relevance to Scanpower’s load densities. That is, there is no part of Scanpower’s network that can justify N‐1 security on the basis of load density. Consequently Scanpower has re‐defined its standard on the basis economic impact such as CML which provides drivers for improving response times and establishing contingency provisions. ASSET MANAGEMENT POLICIES To address security and contingency provisions for large users on a case by case basis. To develop LV interconnection in urban areas and contingent transformer and cable capacity. To increase the sectionalising capability into smaller network segments to achieve parity with other networks. PERFORMANCE TARGETS / KPIs Appropriate security standards established and maintained. Page 32 of 193 Table 10 continued – Asset Management Objectives and Policies Asset Management Objective To maintain and replace assets on a sustainable and best practice basis JUSTIFICATION This objective is fundamental to the on‐going viability of Scanpower’s core business. ASSET MANAGEMENT POLICIES PAS 55 asset management methodology adopted. Total asset life cycle management approach adopted. PERFORMANCE TARGETS / KPIs AMP feedback from Commerce Commission review and industry ranking relative to other companies. Planned capital and maintenance activities completed within time and financial budgets. Asset Management Objective To operate a compliant and effective public safety management system (PSMS) JUSTIFICATION This is a relatively new regulatory requirement which needs continued focus until systems have been adequately proven effective and the routine continuous improvement process adequate. ASSET MANAGEMENT POLICIES To be integrated with the workplace OSH SMS. PERFORMANCE TARGETS / KPIs Scanpower PSMS achieves Telarc certification for compliance. Zero harm caused to members of the public. The PSMS has additional targets and KPI’s by virtue of the fact it is a TQM system in its own right. Asset Management Objective To forecast and respond to load growth with network development initiatives JUSTIFICATION The design limitations of 11kV distribution is on the horizon. In addition technology risk threatens the competitiveness of core grid supply. Economic conditions are volatile. The pace of change in the strategic environment exceeds the life‐cycle of traditional line solutions. Higher planning vigilance is needed to ensure the customer needs are met when they need them. ASSET MANAGEMENT POLICIES Formalise planning via the Network Development Plan (NDP) and include directors in the review process. Present detail in the AMP to establish the opportunity for public scrutiny and input . Annually review NDP to ensure projections align with experience. Establish load growth trigger points for initiating developments that require lead times exceeding 12 months. Maintain excess capacity to for new load, switching contingencies and development headroom. Page 33 of 193 Table 10 continued – Asset Management Objectives and Policies PERFORMANCE TARGETS / KPIs Capacity exists to accommodate all reasonably foreseeable growth within appropriate timeframes whilst maintaining quality standards. Network development adopts lowest cost, effective solutions including consideration of distributed generation and demand side solutions. Demonstrated for capital expenditure sanctions. Page 34 of 193 6.0 ASSET KNOWLEDGE SET 6.1 Service Area Scanpower’s supply area of 2,000km2 is the area broadly bounded by the Manawatu River to the North, and again to the South, whilst stretching to the Ruahine Ranges to the West and to Wimbledon in East. This area can be described as the Northern half of the Tararua District, and includes the towns of Dannevirke, Woodville, and the settlements of Norsewood, Ormondville and Kumeroa. Figure 6 – Scanpower Area of Supply Total connections number 6,789 and for the year ended March 2011 88 GWh was injected into the network with an overall average loss factor of 6.8%. Population numbers in the Tararua District have shown a slowly declining trend in recent years.1 Furthermore the projected population is forecast to follow a similar trend, reducing by 2% through to 2016. Contrary to this trend however, ICP numbers have increased over past years from 6,692 in 2007 to 6,789 as at March 2011, a rise of 1.5%. This increase has come from a continuing high level of dairy conversions in the region in addition to several new residential subdivisions. Change in land use, the associated shift in load centres and changing peaking and diversity results in constraints on feeders and specific network locations without necessarily being visible in system demand profiles or revenue/energy volume growth. 1 Source: Statistics NZ: http://www.stats.govt.nz/products-and-services/hot-off-the-press/subnational-populationestimates/subnational-population-estimates-jun06-hotp.htm?page=para016Master Page 35 of 193 A single new load, of say 70kVA, may not be large in terms of national averages, but added to a 1.5MVA load represents 5% of its of its peak and can be 35% of the local distribution transformer and LV network. Adding a larger customer of say 300kVA can result in wide ranging upgrade requirements. 6.2 Large Customers The Scanpower network area is predominantly rural and hence the economy is largely based on agricultural activities, such as sheep and beef farming. Dairying and forestry are other viable local land uses. On an annual basis, 22.03% of total electricity distributed is used by the six largest industrial / commercial customers. These are: One meat processing/freezing works (Alliance, Dannevirke) A large scale cold storage business (Oringi Cold Stores, Dannevirke) A timber mill (Kiwi Lumber, Dannevirke) A textiles yarn and dye plant (Godfrey Hirst, Dannevirke) One supermarket (New World, Dannevirke) Kordia (a regional broadcasting repeater site) The electricity consumption and maximum demands associated with these sites (for the twelve months to March 2011) were as follows: Table 11 – Scanpower Major Customer Details Customer Consumption GWh GWh % of Total Peak Demand MVA Peak Demand % of Annual Peak Alliance Freezing Works 6.1 6.93% 1.36 8.6% Godfrey Hirst Carpets 3.0 3.41% 0.75 4.7% Kiwi Lumber Mill 2.8 3.12% 1.00 6.3% Kordia 2.8 3.12% 0.35 2.2% Oringi Cold Stores 3.7 4.20% 0.64 4.0% New World Supermarket 1.1 1.25% 0.18 1.1% 19.5 22.03% 4.28 26.9% TOTAL The next tranche of customers (in terms of size) below these are relatively small (including KFC, McDonalds, local swimming pool, etc.). Page 36 of 193 The closure of Alliance Freezing Works, Godfrey Hirst, Kiwi Lumber, Oringi Cold Stores or the New World would have less of an impact on asset management priorities for the planning period covered by this plan than any one of them increasing their load by a relatively modest amount. Loss of load may result in some plans being deferred for a few years but with no subtransmission the risk of stranding assets is low. Excess capacity in the 11kV network is kept at a more conservative level because it is able to be developed relatively quickly. The risk of new load appearing more quickly than planned or at a higher demand than assumed is that some plans will need to be bought forward and this creates a peak in demand for financial resources and organisational capacity. This is because the sites are either on the Dannevirke town mesh (Alliance, Godfrey Hirst, New World) or on feeder sections that are currently in good condition (Kiwi Lumber, Oringi Cold Stores, Kordia). In general, at Scanpower’s scale of operation, the impact of the closure of one or more of the six largest sites would be financial (due to lost revenue). At this point, the company would face the decision of either accepting lower profits / returns, or increasing prices across the remaining customers to ensure that status quo financial objectives are met. 6.3 Load Characteristics The graph below illustrates the consolidated load profile characteristics for the Dannevirke and Woodville points of supply (summer and winter weekdays), these being the two key parts of the network. As can be seen from the load profile curves, day time load is reasonably constant in both the Dannevirke and Woodville areas, and significant load displacement would be necessary to reduce the peaks. The curves already reflect Scanpower’s existing load control protocols (primarily to water heating load) and therefore without impacting adversely on the quality of service provided to customers, there is limited potential to achieve further load displacement benefits. The network is winter peaking but dairy and irrigation loads are capable of catching this peak; particularly in dry years. Page 37 of 193 Figure 7 – Scanpower Load Profile Curves (Dannevirke and Woodville Points of Supply) 6.4 Energy Supplied and Demand The following table summarises the key details of each of Scanpower’s 11kV feeders supplied by Transpower CBs at the Dannevirke GXP: Table 12 – Dannevirke Feeder Data Feeder Name kWh pa Description Rating Max Load Pacific 6,855,332 Rural feeder, mainly servicing industrial load 4.4MW 1.4MW Weber 9,836,839 Long Rural feeder servicing eastern extremity 4.4MW 2.0MW Adelaide Rd 9,342,636 Urban feeder into Dannevirke 4.4MW 2.8MW 14,723,894 Urban feeder into Dannevirke 4.4MW 2.3MW Central 9,802,961 Urban feeder into Dannevirke 4.4MW 3.1MW Mangatera 9,980,728 Rural area feeder supplying Ormondville 4.4MW 1.9MW Te Rehunga 4,031,379 Southern rural area feeder 4.4MW 1.1MW North 7,792,784 Rural area feeder supplying Norsewood 4.4MW 1.9MW East Three 11 kV feeders radiate from the Woodville point of supply. summarises the key details of each of these: The following table Page 38 of 193 Table 13 – Woodville Feeder Data Feeder Name kWh pa Description Rating Max Load Town 1 4,920,112 Urban feeder into Woodville / Eastern rural area 5.0MW 1.1MW Town 2 4,424,594 Urban feeder into Woodville/Western rural area 5.0MW 1.1MW Country 3,316,656 Rural feeder to north of Woodville 5.0MW 0.9MW Figure 8 below provides the typical daily consumption profiles for the Dannevirke and Woodville points of supply across both winter and summer periods. Figure 8 – Typical Daily Consumption Profile (Dannevirke and Woodville – Summer / Winter) Daily peaks are created by morning and evening residential load. The morning peak is larger because there is less diversity in its start-up and it is coincident with commercial and retail activity. Figure 9 below provides a snapshot, as at 5 March 2013, of the daily consumption profile by feeder. Page 39 of 193 Figure 9 – Consumption by Feeder as at 5 March 2013 Feeders with dairy load display very peaky load profiles at milking times. These feeders lack load diversity which limits load control options. 6.5 Network Configuration 6.5.1 Grid Exit Points Scanpower’s network serves two main urban areas; Dannevirke and Woodville, and the surrounding rural areas. Bulk supply is taken from Transpower’s 110kV Bunnythorpe / Fernhill lines via 110/11kV substations at Dannevirke and Woodville. The Dannevirke Transpower point of supply is approximately 6km SW of the Dannevirke and has parallel 110/11kV 20 MVA transformers, giving a firm supply of 20 MVA compared with a maximum demand of 14 MW. Circuit breakers are remotely switched from Transpower’s Regional Control Centre. Eight 11 kV feeders radiate from the Dannevirke point of supply.The transformer windings have tapping provisions to allow them to be reconnected as 110/33kV units should a significant load appear that requires sub-transmission support. Woodville’s Transpower point of supply is 3km west of Woodville and has parallel 110/11kV 10MVA transformers, giving an N-1supply of 10 MVA compared with a maximum demand of 3 MW. Woodville is also the generation injection point for the Te Apiti Wind farm and switching node in the regional 110kV network. Details of energy flow in grid under various generation and contingency scenarios are described in Transpower’s Annual Planning Report. Page 40 of 193 Figure 10 – National Grid Configuration (Central North Island) 6.5.2 Sub-transmission The Scanpower network has no 33kV sub transmission system. Its distribution lines operate at 11kV and 230/400V. The company has no zone substation assets. There is no N-1 security provision on any part of Scanpower’s network beyond the Transpower POS transformers. Without sub-transmission Scanpower’s network is limited to feeder loads in the order of 23MW maximum. The thermal rating of Dog conductor is 4.4MW but the distance of load from the POS limits load due to voltage constraints. Consequently, any major new load exceeding these limits will need dedicated 11kV feeders to be developed back to the GXP with additional 11kV CBs provided by Transpower. Planning for such new load would therefore necessarily involve Transpower and be subject to their grid upgrade processes and time lines. 6.5.3 Distribution 11kV Overhead and Underground Lines Scanpower’s core assets constitute an electricity distribution network of predominantly overhead/pole mounted 11kV lines/assets with historic maximum demand in the range of 15 - 16MW and a total system length of 1,038 kilometres. The following map illustrates the geographic layout of the network. Page 41 of 193 Figure 11 – Scanpower Geographic Lay Out of 11kV Distribution Lines Scanpower is ~50% through a life cycle renewal of the original hardwood pole population with concrete pole replacements. This program will continue for another 10 years before softwood poles will be targeted. It standardises on Dog, Ferret, and Gopher ACSWR conductor but will continue to have a significant amount of copper and steel conductor types remaining over the term of this plan. One of the less typical features of Scanpower’s network is that it has very little single phase network and it has been historical practice to connect loads predominantly as 3 phase supplies in the rural areas. Consequently, it has a lot of very small 3 phase rural loads that cannot be rationalised to single phase installations without equipment upgrades and/or service line upgrades. This practice is the result of a need to minimise conductor size and capacity for economic reasons. It has a down-side in terms of efficient transformer utilisation. The economics of remote supply is shifting away from grid supply with the decline in the cost of alternatives. The new balance point will be determined by consumers as they renew/upgrade/modernise their installations. Page 42 of 193 6.5.4 Transformers As at 31st March 2012 Scanpower has a distribution transformer population of 1,373 units (excluding spares) ranging from 2kVA to 1,000kVA capacity. At that date the total installed capacity was 65 MVA with a capacity utilisation rating of 24.6%. The transformers are all standard oil immersed 11kV/400V units, with the majority (1053) rated at 30kVA or less. Urban areas are supplied by larger transformers feeding LV reticulation. Distribution subs are typically ground mounted with a 200-300kVA transformer in a kiosk of various designs. Transformer HV pole-mounted fusing is usually provided at the point of connection to the HV network. There is only one 11kV ring main unit on Scanpower’s street distribution network reflecting the fact that there is very little interconnection of the underground HV cable network – interconnection and switching is achieved via the overhead network. Rural areas have predominantly pole mounted transformers which supply a more limited group of ICP’s given the distance limitations of LV reticulation. Very few transformers in the rural area are over 100kVA. There is a set of voltage regulators on the North feeder at Matamau. In accordance with the Network Development Plan (refer later for more detail) these are in the process of being upgraded to larger units with a balanced 3 phase configuration. These larger units were recovered from the Pacific feeder where they are no longer needed since the Oringi Meat Works ceased operations. 6.5.5 Low Voltage System Overhead / Underground The 400V network system consists of 185.7 km of lines, 63.4 km of which have now been installed underground. All customers on the network take supply at 400V with the exception of two (Oringi Cool Stores and Kiwi Lumber) which take supply at 11kV. There is a very low level of LV interconnection and consequently very little excess or contingent capacity has been designed into the LV network. It is now policy and practice to improve interconnection and cable capacity by installing intermediate substation sites as transformer and cable capacities become constrained. Without LV interconnection, faults on transformers and HV feeder cables result in high CML (Customer Minutes Lost) figures while repairs are undertaken. Scanpower has a relatively high number of ICPs per transformer in urban residential areas. Consumption per ICP is low and actual ADMD (After Diversity Maximum Demand) is below 1kW indicating that diversity and load factor at system level is high. This is considered to be largely the result of gas and wood fuel penetration into the domestic hot water and space heating market. It is viable for residential installations to fully meet their relatively low daily electricity consumption from PV (Photo Voltaic) installation. Page 43 of 193 The peaky nature of this generation and the extent of its non-availability at night and low performance during winter, presents a load management issue as it will unbalance the existing capacity provision relative to load diversity. It is likely that Scanpower will need to introduce energy storage capability into the LV network should PV uptake become wide spread. Viable solutions for storage are currently new to the market and quite limited. The company no longer pursues a policy of undergrounding in the urban Dannevirke and Woodville areas. This policy was abandoned as rising costs and reduced cooperation from other utilities reduced the viability of the work. Some undergrounding continues as opportunity presents and circumstances make good practice with regard to long term outcomes. 6.5.6 Distribution Equipment A legacy feature of Scanpower’s network that differentiates it from an operational perspective is that it has retained its HV branch and group fusing and it uses its fusing as its primary means of switching and isolating. It has been late to take up distribution automation and supersede HV fusing with recloser and sectionalising equipment. It has not yet achieved optimal configuration at a system level and the density of isolation equipment for sectionalising the network into small segments is not as developed as its peers. Consequently it has a low density of ABSs. These are limited to locations where 3 phase load breaking is desirable. There are 18 Electropar automated load break rated ABSs on the network. These are proving unacceptably unreliable and are to be changed with better performing technology as the network’s system automation is developed. These issues have been analysed and an Automation and Protection Development Project is an output of this Plan. Scanpower’s preferred solution is the enhance branch and group fusing via the deployment of Fuse Saver technology new to the market in 2012. Fuse Savers are placed in series with expulsion fuses and function as a one shot sectionaliser, able to clear transient faults before the fuse operates thus reducing the number of trippings caused by things other than network asset failure. 6.5.7 Secondary Assets Scanpower installed and commissioned its own private radio network during 2005/06. Vehicle radio communication operates via VHF mobiles and SCADA/Ripple communication is via UHF radio links. In 2012 it developed a new repeater at Ahiweka to improve coverage issues east of the Puketoi ranges and it has retained the Poupouatua repeater which better serves town and the valley between the Ruahine and Puketoi ranges. The standard life for this equipment is 15 years indicating that its replacement will be required within the forecast period of this plan. However, it is likely to reach technical obsolescence before age becomes an issue and therefore it is not known what it might be replaced with or what this will likely cost. The communication platform of smart metering (owned by others), for example, may provide an alternative to running a private radio system. Page 44 of 193 In 2006 Scanpower installed and commissioned a new 283Hz Enermet ripple injection plant at the Dannevirke substation to replace the existing Zellweger static plant. Correspondingly, all ripple relay receivers at customer premises have now been upgraded to operate from this new system. In 2010 the existing plant at Woodville was replaced with a new 283 Hz and all relays changed. This project was undertaken in conjunction with a major upgrade of the GXP substation by Transpower. The SCADA system is used to operate and monitor equipment on the network including circuit breakers, sectionalisers and remote control switches. The system provides real time load data and fault status information. It is also used for receiving data from Transpower’s feeder circuit breakers at the Dannevirke and Woodville substations. At present Scanpower is not able to operate the breakers remotely via the SCADA system, but this can be done by Transpower on request. 6.5.8 Non Works Scanpower operates HV service lines as an integral component of the distribution network and meets obligations as an operator for these assets but not as the asset owner. It acknowledges that it is not the owner of these assets and they do not form part of its regulatory defined “works”. The regulatory responsibilities and associated rights applied to works do not extend to service lines. Specifically: Access and land use. Public safety Tree management Compliance Scanpower adopts a ‘notify and make safe’ policy with regard to any non-compliance it discovers during the course of its operations. It does not undertake enforcement duties on behalf of the regulator. Scanpower incurs cost operating service line assets, for example responding to faults, but it does so on a discretionary basis and ‘average-costs’ these services into its larger asset base. 6.5.9 Other Assets Street Lighting Scanpower owns the street lighting network that is embedded into its infrastructure with exclusion of the light fittings and dedicated street light columns. It also owns and operates the control equipment. All costs and maintenance associated with fittings and columns are undertaken by an external contractor for TDC. These contractors (and Chorus contractors) therefore access network assets. Policy with regard to cost sharing during undergrounding projects is ad hoc. In a Scanpower initiated project it may opt to install street light cables and columns in exchange for footpath reinstatements. Page 45 of 193 Oringi Scanpower owns and operates the Ex-Oringi Meat Processing Plant as an industrial park. It has inherited the 11kV and 400V distribution associated with that site. This includes an 11kV switchboard of GEC oil filled CB’s which it plans to reconfigure as a bussing point feeding out to the surrounding rural network. There is sizeable refrigeration and water supply pumping assets owned by Scanpower at this site. Land With no zone sub-stations the majority of Scanpower’s assets are located within road reserve or on land with use rights established under the Public Works Act. There has not been significant new network built on private land since this time. Scanpower does not require easements for new supplies for individual customers and it does not assert land use rights on their behalf. It does not claim ownership of service line assets and/or require their gifting to the network. Tree Cutting Plant and Equipment The district lacks resources for tree cutting services. This has created some challenges for Scanpower and tree owners with regard to managing trees clear of lines for both safety purposes and outage performance objectives. Consequently Scanpower has made a significant investment in plant to support a tree service business it operates called Treesmart. The Network has a direct role in the use and funding of this asset. Live Line Plant and Equipment Scanpower has a significant investment in Glove Barrier and Hot Stick “live lining” plant and equipment. This shared by both the field staff of its network crews and external HV contracting crews. The Live Line crew itself is drawn from both divisions and the costs, such as training, are shared. The Network requires this capability to meet its performance targets therefore it has a direct role in the use and funding of this asset. Mobile Supply Equipment Scanpower currently does not own and operate any mobile substations or standby generation. 6.5.10 Other Generation There is currently no significant generation on the system, just one small microgeneration scheme (capacity not exceeding 10kW). Scanpower itself has an 11kW PV array on its offices but these are embedded behind its network connection and of insufficient size to ever inject back onto the network. Page 46 of 193 6.6 Justification for Assets Scanpower meets the service levels required by its customers by carrying out a number of activities on its network assets (such as those detailed in Section 6), and including the initial step of actually creating / building these assets. Certain assets are required to deliver greater service levels than others, and the level of investment required will generally reflect the magnitude and nature of the demand being met. Matching the level of investment made in assets to the current and forecast service levels required necessitates consideration of factors such as: An understanding of how asset ratings and configurations create service levels such as capacity, security, reliability and voltage stability. An understanding of the asymmetric nature of under-investment and over-investment; i.e. over-investment creates the capability to meet service levels before they are required, whilst under-investing can lead to service failures and interruptions. A recognition that the existing network has been built over an 80 year period via a series of incremental investment decisions that were probably optimal at the time, but when taken in aggregate in the present may have been sub-optimal. A need to accommodate future growth (noting that the ODV Handbook now prescribes the number of years ahead that such growth can be accommodated). In theory an asset would be justified if the service level it creates is equal to the service level required. In a practical world of asymmetric risks, discrete component ratings, non-linear behaviour of materials and uncertain future growth rates, we consider an asset to be justified if its resulting service level is not significantly greater than that required subject to allowing for reasonable demand growth and discrete component ratings. The most recent regulatory ODV revaluation exercise was undertaken as at the year-end 31 March 2004 for financial reporting and regulatory compliance purposes. The basis for this valuation was the draft ODV Handbook issued by the Commerce Commission and current at this date. The total replacement cost of Scanpower distribution assets at this date was $40,443,825 and the depreciated replacement cost (DRC) was $19,823,274. A key practical measure of justification is the ratio of Scanpower’s ODRC to DRC which, per our most recent ODV Report, is 0.9992. There were no in service assets deemed to be surplus to requirements at the time of the valuation and therefore there was no optimisation adjustment to this value. The Scanpower assets that required an optimising adjustment at that time were some older network spares that have now been scrapped. Economic value testing of the assets, performed at the time of that regulatory ODV report, by way of discounted cash flow analysis suggested there was no impairment or EV adjustment necessary, hence the optimised deprival value of the assets was calculated to be the same as the DRC at $19,823,274. Page 47 of 193 7.0 ASSET INFORMATION SYSTEMS 7.1 Cablecad Geographic Information System (GIS) This is a geographic information system that provides an electronic, graphical representation of the Scanpower network. Its main utility is a connectivity model of the network which allows datasets to be extracted on the basis of their electrical connection to other assets. It includes assets such as transformers, distribution boxes, poles, lines, switches, cables and isolating fuses. The system is used to draw/record network plans for capital replacement and maintenance works, including overhead line replacement and laying of underground cables. It is also used to store the age and condition of network assets using the results reported from the relevant assets inspection program. A support agreement is in place with Enghouse in Canada and on-site technical support is provided from Auckland. 7.2 NCS (Napier Computer Systems) customer/ICP information database This system is the main financial recording system for Scanpower. It also stores customer connection information, and is used to generate ICP numbers for new connections. Technical support is provided by Napier Computer Systems. 7.3 ECR (Electricity Commission Registry) This is the national system through which all electricity connections (ICP’s) are recorded and reconciled. It also records the current energisation status of ICPs on the network (e.g. energised, de-energised, or decommissioned), the network connected to and the retailer supplying them. 7.4 SCADA System Records The SCADA system is licensed from Abbey Systems and is operated / located in the Network Control Room at Oringi. It is used for real time monitoring of the network, including feeder loadings, operation of remote control equipment on the network and load control information. Technical support is provided by FMS Ltd from Palmerston North who also maintains the radio communications network. During 2012, remote laptop access to the Master Station was established for duty controllers to operate from home during after-hours. A back-up control room was established in Scanpower’s plumbing and electrical business located in Gordon St. Dannevirke. Page 48 of 193 7.5 Proprietary asset databases This category of information systems refers to a suite of proprietary asset databases, created in Microsoft Excel. These often serve as intermediary stages in the data collection or reporting of financial accounting, tax accounting, ODV and other information disclosure requirements. 7.6 Linkage between Data Systems and Asset Management Processes The asset information systems store and provide data that assists Scanpower in planning which capital and maintenance works to undertake so as to ensure network objectives are met. A diagram showing information flow and systems is below. Figure 12 – Information Systems / Flow Schematic 7.7 Asset management Information Systems Review During 2012 the Networks Asset Management Information Systems (AMIS) were reviewed. External support by way of assessment and advice was obtained from Asset Man Ltd. A needs analysis was undertaken by the Network Manager to provide a strategic benchmark against which Scanpower’s existing AMIS elements and datasets were assessed with regard to: Continued development and enhancement of existing systems. Reassessment/confirmation of the current development path specifically with regard to change in staffing structures and associated work processes. Page 49 of 193 An assessment of the market with regard to the competing leading solutions and their fit to Scanpower’s needs i.e. what applications are developed, implemented and proven in NZ power companies. The conclusions of this review were: Scanpower’s CableCad GIS is currently proving an adequate repository for asset records. Whilst GIS is a legacy system that is likely to be replaced by alternative platforms in the future, Scanpower has other priority AMIS developments to address. Scanpower has terminated its development of EMS Basix – it did not fit sufficiently to Scanpower’s needs analysis, priorities or development cost/time performance requirements. The incompatibility for EMS Basix to integrate with the legacy CableCAD GIS was a primary issue. The alternative market solutions also shared this issue. Scanpower has invested in EXO (a new financial IS replacing the NCS platform and has an added job costing module) primarily for its external contracting activity. This however has sufficient capability to be adapted for AMIS functionality as an alternative EMS Basix. Scanpower’s restructuring of its field staff, such the Network directly manages its own work crews dedicated to internal network activity, has facilitated the use of EXO. EXO is to be loaded with standard assemblies and this will be applied to AM cost planning. It allows the accumulation of historic actual cost records such that average unit costs can be derived. It also allows actual costs to applied to reconciled with monthly budgets. That is no contracting profit margins to cover the overheads of a contracting environment - contractor management, tendering costs, etc. However, the internal works crews can be benchmarked against the productivity of external contracting work crews to demonstrate the efficiency of this structure for Scanpower’s operation (size and location). EXO will be adapted to provide a platform for a Works Order (WO) process. Scanpower does not have a need for contract pricing and approval – EXO will deliver an estimate of cost, field staff are directly managed. With regard to AMIS priorities such as a Maintenance Management System (MMS) it was determined that existing RDMS platforms were adequate to meet Scanpower’s relatively simple needs. These can be enhanced with a scheduling tool to systemise the work flow process. 7.8 Improvement Priorities Scanpower’s needs with regard to AM data it currently does not have include: Pole structure design tool and pole strength records – it is proposed to acquire a design tool such as Poles n Wires and to apply ultrasonic pole testing techniques to determine remaining pole strength. Page 50 of 193 Scanpower has an electrical analysis model of its network developed in Digsilent. This model is applied by external engineering expertise. With the network reaching a period of voltage constraint, driving the need for more detailed analysis, it is proposed to develop this capability in-house. It is proposed to migrate from paper based data capture process to electronic capture in the field. Installation of smart metering at key network nodes and an enhanced Load Management System on Scanpower’s SCADA are also priority objectives for developments its AMIS. 7.9 Technical Standards and Guidelines Several of Scanpower’s management processes – safety, asset management, risk management, etc – are by definition and regulatory requirement, Total Quality Management (TQM) systems. These systems are built on a foundation of standards and procedures. Managing this documentation in a small organisation such Scanpower is becoming a significant operational overhead. Consequently it is proposed to move the document management and TQM record keeping processes to an electronic platform. Scanpower has a variety of technical standards and practice guidelines that it has largely adopted from other industry participants. Its involvement in the industry and contracting for other networks makes this a pragmatic solution to a lack of capacity in this area – Scanpower is simply not large enough to justify the expertise and resources needed. 7.10 Maturity of Information (AMMAT) This document is the first attempt by Scanpower to apply a PAS55 compliant asset management system. As such there are a few circumstances where it has been discovered that knowledge lacks sufficient detail, consistency or accuracy to allow assessment of legacy issues and what affects these have on existing whole of life cycle analysis. This is predominantly uncertainty about the use of second hand materials in the original build, their subsequent re-cycle and the cost-benefits associated with those early decisions. There are also inconsistencies between this year’s plan and its predecessor that are a result from the change in methodology and the timing of when various new policies and practices have been bought into effect. That is, in the first year there are limited benchmarks against the benefits of a proposed new practice can be assessed as there are established trends. To ensure Scanpower has had an objective assessment of the maturity of its Asset Management Systems, consistent with assessments made on other networks, an external assessor, Utility Consultants Ltd., has undertaken the “Schedule 13 AMMAT” assessment process. The regulatory templated schedules can be viewed in Appendix A. Page 51 of 193 7.10.1 AMMAT Summary The following is an extract from Utility Consultants report (NB: This assessment was made on the previous 2012-2022 asset management plan): Introduction Schedule 13 of the Electricity Distribution Information Disclosure Determination 2012 requires all EDB’s to complete an assessment of the maturity of their asset management practices using a prescribed template derived from PAS 55. This requires each EDB to score the maturity of each identified asset management element between 0 and 4 using prompts, and it is expected that the assessment will be repeated at regular intervals as part of the Asset Management Plan disclosure process. This report is intended only as a summary of the Schedule 13. Readers should refer to the full Schedule 13 in regard to compliance with the Determination. Assessment methodology Scanpower engaged Utility Consultants to assist with compiling the AMMAT (Schedule 13). The assessment methodology included discussions with the following people: Ken Mitchell – Network Manager. Lee Bettles – Chief Executive. Ben van der Spuy – Company Accountant. The assessment also included inspections of various documents including: 2012 – 2022 Asset Management Plan. Working papers for the PAS 55 implementation. Various board papers. Board agendas. Design and construction standards. Faults database. Network development plan. Network automation strategy. PSMS certificate. Page 52 of 193 Emergency preparedness plan Summary of ScanPower’s assessment The assessment process resulted in scores from 1 to 3, with most elements scoring a 3. Those elements that scored only a 1 or 2 should easily progress to a 3 as Scanpower implements PAS 55. Key areas identified for possible improvement along with suggested priorities are: Table 14 – Scanpower AMMAT Review Recommendations Question(s) Suggested priority Recommendation 3 Low Develop a specific AM Policy that visibly links to the Strategic Objectives. 31 Low Continue developing HR Plans and assessing competency requirements, possibly also develop a long-term funding plan if the network funding requirements are expected to change. 45 Low Implement firmer quality controls for the few AM activities that are out-sourced. 59 Low Continue with the IS gap analysis work, and more clearly document the interaction of key AM IS. 63, 64 High Continue the current data integrity improvement work. 69, 79 High Include the proposed improved asset lifecycle criticality and risks in the 2013 – 2023 AMP. 82 Medium Consider performing a comprehensive legislative and regulatory compliance review, and from that compile various checklists and calendars for each manager to implement. 113 Medium Continue implementing PAS 55, which will embed continual performance, risk and cost assessments. Page 53 of 193 8.0 ORGANISATIONAL CAPABILITY Organisational structure deliberately reflects AM’s “strategic line of sight” described in section 4 from governance, to corporate management, to divisional management, to asset management, right through to field operatives and establishes clear lines of accountability for delivery on company objectives. The roles within the various layers of the structure reflect the asset management competency framework illustrated below. Figure 13 – Asset Management Competency Framework 8.1 Accountabilities and Responsibilities A current organisational chart is provided in Figure 14 below. The Chief Executive reports to a Board of five Directors, currently; Allan Benbow (Chairman), Peter Clayton, Christine Donald, Bob Henry and Rodney Wong. The Directors, in turn, are employed by, and ultimately report to, the Trustees of the Scanpower Customer Trust (currently Rowena Bowie, Keith Cammock, Jim Crispin, Stuart Smith and Noel Galloway). Ultimate responsibility for the management of Scanpower’s network assets lies with the Board of Directors, who are appointed by the Board of Trustees. The Trustees are elected on a tri-annual basis by consumers. The Board of Directors appoints the Chief Executive who is responsible for day to day management of the company and its assets. However, the Chief Executive is required to: Page 54 of 193 Obtain Board approval on an annual basis for the Asset Management Plan and related capital and operating budgets. Report to the Board on a monthly basis on actual company performance relative to the objectives documented within the Asset Management Plan including: - Monthly financial performance (capex/opex) relative to budget, including appropriate variance analysis and commentary where required. - Monthly network reliability performance (SAIDI and SAIFI) relative to target, with supporting commentary on the level and nature of network outages occurring during the month. - A general commentary on monthly progress on network capital and maintenance activities. Obtain Board approval for any material deviation from the initiatives planned per the AMP (for example deferral of a particular project, or implementing an unplanned project with a value greater than $250,000). Scanpower operates an in-house network engineering/asset management team which includes network dedicated field crews. Field resources can be supplemented from the line contracting division. The Network Manager is responsible for day to day running of the Network Division. The Network Manager is also the “responsible person” as defined by the Public Safety Management System. The current organisational structure is shown in Figure 14 below. There are two network orientated groups within the team; Network and contracting each with approximately 15 FTEs. Scanpower also operates a Plumbing and Electrical Business and a large Cold Store operation. These 2 businesses represent approximately half of the total staffing establishment. Safety systems are necessarily coordinated across the entire organisation. The Network Division is responsible for maintaining accurate asset information, both in terms of installation and condition survey data, and using this as a basis for asset management planning, decision making on the entire life cycle management of the network business assets and delivering on divisional business objectives. The Treesmart business, while operating as its own profit centre, has the managerial oversight of the Network Manager. Their rationale for existence is to meet the Networks resourcing requirements for tree management which is a major cost to the network operation. The Contracting Division undertakes work for external clients, including customers, property developers and other networks. Where Network requires additional resourcing for its work programmes it sources this from the Contracting Division in the first instance. Whilst the majority of line work is undertaken by the in-house teams, Scanpower occasionally uses external contractors for certain specialised work. Separation of the field crews between Network and Contracting Divisions is intended to prevent external work reducing focus on core network requirements. Page 55 of 193 Figure 14 – Scanpower Organisational Chart Page 56 of 193 8.2 Developing Asset Management Organisational Capability PAS55 requires the resourcing and capability of the organisation to be assessed for its capacity to deliver on the AMP and associated business objectives. Scanpower has undertaken a review in 2012 of its staffing structure with regard to: The skill sets it will need to implement development plans which require a higher level of technology application. The adequacy of resourcing levels necessary to managed safety, environment and quality systems including the management of training programmes and record keeping. The adequacy resourcing levels with respect to tree trimming demand in the district. The coordination of resources with the Contracting Division to meet the Networks servicing requirements, the private work of network connected customers, and the external work for other network companies. In addition to the findings of this review, there has been several personnel changes in the staff managing contracting activity which has created opportunity for the changes determined to be desirable. This has resulted in the staffing structure above which brings some of the field crews directly under the Network divisions control and management. The Contracting division will concentrate on consumer chargeable and external work. The network will also draw on contracting resource for its more sizable work packages that can be projectised. This new structure has evolved throughout 2012/13 and is a significant change to that of previous AMPs. The lines of sight and accountability have more clarity and therefore this restructuring is considered to be an improvement to organisational AM capability. 8.3 Competency Requirements 8.3.1 Training and Equipment Certification The Electricity Industry has highly developed and formalised competency processes that impact on the organisation company wide, affecting all roles within the organisation. In order to work in the industry whether in regard to Scanpowers network, its customer base, external networks/customers or partners in other sectors (e.g. Transpower), the ability to maintain and be able to demonstrate competency is a necessity. Like-wise, the plant and equipment used, is required to have current certifications of various types. Trade level competencies and equipment certification is managed by the Contracting Division utilising the assistance of ESITO. Industry specific safety rules and the related competency framework are included in this scope. Management processes include regular review of needs with respect to customer requirements and staff development programs. Page 57 of 193 The continuing development programs of tertiary qualified staff are self-managed by the staff concerned but with the input of divisional managers with regard to company needs. The Network team for example, determines what specialist engineering capability it will outsource or whose role gaining a specific skill set might best match. Other training requirements are managed at corporate level – both the Strategic Plan and Risk Management Plans address mission critical training and capability requirements. Safety management systems, information systems, and quality systems are addressed at this level – for example, training internal auditors. 8.3.2 Specialist Resources Both Network and Contracting share a requirement to sustain capability with regard to specialist resourcing and for cost efficiency share the tasks of assessing need and funding training. Specifically: Tree management Live Line capability – Glove barrier and Hot Stick Cable Jointing Electrician prescribed work After-hour fault crews 8.4 Communication and Participation Disseminating the information derived in AM planning processes throughout the Line of Sight and receiving feedback from staff, participants and stakeholders has been achieved by the following actions: The Network Development Plan has been presented in detail to the executive management team and subsequently the Directors. The forecast capability and capacity resourcing issues of the wider organisation have been considered. AMP budgets have been prepared by a collaborative effort involving the CEO, Network Manager, and Contracting Manager. Company organisational restructuring has followed a consultative process where input has been canvassed and then decisions presented and discussed with staff collectively. Asset management staff are allocated their tasks, projects, and budgets from the AMP. The completed AMP is then communicated to field staff at two levels. Firstly the Network Manager presents the detail of the development projects and other initiatives, explains why they are necessary and explains the choice of solutions. Secondly, staff in asset management roles, who directly manage work crews, advise the work Page 58 of 193 programme assumptions and the associated productivity assumptions in the AMP and budgeting. Weekly, planning meetings are held with all field staff, as a forum for discussing all operational matters. Network operational management is in daily contact with the foremen of the work crews. Network field staff facilities, offices, and the control room are all located on a single site at Oringi. 90% of the network is located within a 20km radius of Oringi. Page 59 of 193 9.0 RISK MANAGEMENT 9.1 Introduction to Risk Management Scanpower manages through its business risks in accordance with the principles and processes defined by ISO 31000. Figure 15 – Risk Management Framework Risk Management Framework is a TQM system that is integrated into every step of asset management continuous improvement cycle: Risk is addressed discretely and separate to the AMP at a corporate level; And at the network divisional level; And further, risk assessments are inherent in asset criticality determinations, performance assessments and associated gap analysis against standards and AM objectives. It is also integrated and coordinated with the other TQM processes Scanpower operates for safety management and quality management. The integral nature of risk management is directly evident in the ISO risk management principles listed below. Risk management: Page 60 of 193 Creates and protects value Is an integral part of all organisational processes Is part of the decision making Explicitly addresses uncertainty Is systematic, structured and timely Is based on the best information available Is tailored Takes human and cultural factors into account Is transparent and inclusive Is dynamic, iterative and responsive to change Facilitates continual improvement of the organisation However in terms of asset management, it specifically focuses on the network assets, work practices, and the local operating environment. Scanpower’s broader business activities have their own risk management policies and practices. 9.2 Corporate Risk Management The higher level corporate type risks with respect to Business Continuity, IT Security, Insurance, Treasury Policy, etc. are managed at that level in the organisation. Some Emergency Response and Preparedness Plans also need be inclusive of the entire organisation (for example, in its company-wide Safety Management Systems). As can be seen in the corporate level risk assessment detailed below, the network, as Scanpower’s core business, features predominantly in the risk management “line of sight” starting at governance and executive management level. This assessment is reviewed annually between the CEO and Directors. Table 15 below summarises the 19 most significant corporate level risks as identified at a recent risk management exercise undertaken between the executive management team and the Scanpower Limited board of directors. The risks are not presented in any particular order of significance or severity. Each has been assigned a series of potential impacts on the organisation, and a corresponding set of mitigation or monitoring strategies. Page 61 of 193 Table 15 – Scanpower Corporate Risk Register Corporate Risk 1 Inadequate network asset planning and management (short and/or long term) POSSIBLE IMPACTS Potential public and staff safety issues including exposure to injury or death. Increased unplanned outages, deterioration in reliability performance and lost revenue. Creation of increasing backlog of capital and maintenance work that is hard and expensive to recover. Failure to adopt best practice and new technologies results in company falling behind other industry participants. Development opportunities are lost, potentially to competing companies, resulting in lost revenue. Exposure to legal and regulatory action on grounds of negligence / sub standard asset management RISK MITIGATION / MONITORING STRATEGY Ensuring annual asset management planning is completed and results of external assessments reviewing and considered. Ensuring annual capital and maintenance works are completed according to plan. Board members periodically visit work sites and physically verify works are being completed. Periodic external reviews / health checks by appropriately qualified consultants. Corporate Risk 2 Impact on value and profitability of company as a result of sector regulation POSSIBLE IMPACTS Price or rate of return control limits earning potential of company and hence the long term value of the business. Increased reporting and disclosure requirements add cost into the business. Company’s already low prices are locked in over the medium term (as happened 2004 to 2009). RISK MITIGATION / MONITORING STRATEGY Continue to participate in Electricity Networks Association industry group and submissions. Maintain strong and positive relations with the Trust to allow continuance of current exemption from price control. Set pricing on a realistic basis and pre‐emptive basis. Corporate Risk 3 Inadequate compliance with industry regulations and requirements POSSIBLE IMPACTS Reputational loss. Fines for non‐compliance. Potential exposure to liability issues if the non‐compliance is safety related. RISK MITIGATION / MONITORING STRATEGY Prepare a schedule / calendar of annual compliance requirements and advise board. Report back to the board on adherence (or otherwise) with compliance requirements. Continue to comply with Energy Safety Service, Electricity & Gas Complaints Commission, and National Registry audits. Page 62 of 193 Table 15 continued – Scanpower Corporate Risk Register Corporate Risk 4 Network operational risk and staff / public safety POSSIBLE IMPACTS Incorrect switching, work practices, asset failures lead to serious accident or death. Damage to customer premises and property. Damage to network assets. RISK MITIGATION / MONITORING STRATEGY Ensure network control room is functioning effectively. Ensure network operational procedures are in place and adhered to. Ensure network operations are staffed appropriately. Corporate Risk 5 Major natural disasters and hazards POSSIBLE IMPACTS Catastrophic damage to assets and associated interruption of electricity supply. Long term revenue loss. Failure to meet the civil defence needs of the community and other agencies. RISK MITIGATION / MONITORING STRATEGY Ensure effective disaster recovery and business continuity plans in place. Ensure compliance with Public Safety Management Systems. Ensure ongoing liaison with regional civil defence planning. Corporate Risk 6 Inadequate revenue management and pricing POSSIBLE IMPACTS Inadequate cash flows to meet the long term needs of the business. Profitability and returns to customer diminish over the long term. Deterioration in financial performance and increasing stakeholder dissatisfaction. Lack of funding for necessary asset replacement and development. RISK MITIGATION / MONITORING STRATEGY Make pricing decisions on an objective rather than emotive basis. Undertake short and medium term revenue and cash flow analysis. Consider pricing relative to peer group companies. Page 63 of 193 Table 15 continued – Scanpower Corporate Risk Register Corporate Risk 7 Diversion of attention from core network business POSSIBLE IMPACTS A disproportionate amount of board and management time is devoted to non‐core business activities, resulting in degradation of the core network business over time. Directors fail to accumulate knowledge relating to the core business over time resulting in poor governance performance. Resources are dedicated to non‐relevant activities. Company pursues activities in which it has little or no expertise. Development opportunities in core areas are missed. RISK MITIGATION / MONITORING STRATEGY Regular (at least annual) strategic planning sessions. Appropriate time, consideration and resources are applied to core business activities and closely related activities. Board to maintain focus on core / critical activities. Corporate Risk 8 Lack of contract management expertise POSSIBLE IMPACTS Legal and financial exposure where acting as the contractor. Failure to control contractors effectively where acting as the principal. RISK MITIGATION / MONITORING STRATEGY Appropriate use of company solicitors to establish pro forma contracts. Use of company solicitors to review major contracts. Staff training on rudimentary contract law issues. Policies in place regarding staff ability to amend or change contracts. Corporate Risk 9 Data management risk / loss of data POSSIBLE IMPACTS Loss of intellectual capital inherent in company data and corresponding deterioration in business performance. High costs associated with restructuring or recapturing lost data. Potential safety issues around loss of installation specific electricity data. RISK MITIGATION / MONITORING STRATEGY Ensure that appropriate information technology architecture is in place, with storage redundancy. Ensure that regular back up procedures are established and followed. Ensure that a copy of back ups is held at off‐site location. Page 64 of 193 Table 15 continued – Scanpower Corporate Risk Register Corporate Risk 10 Inadequate strategic planning POSSIBLE IMPACTS Lack of coherent understanding between Directors, management and trustees as to the objectives and long term direction of the company. Lack of clear direction leads to inertia or time and resources being applied to strategically incompatible activities. Over the long term, company performance suffers. RISK MITIGATION / MONITORING STRATEGY Establish an annual process for strategic planning, including annual board session. Consider behaviours and apparent strategies of other industry participants. Consider training for directors and staff on strategic planning. Corporate Risk 11 Lack of security of supply management POSSIBLE IMPACTS Lack of network supply contingency options in the event of significant failure. Extended loss of supply to large sections of the network (if not all). Associated revenue and safety issues arising from widespread outages. RISK MITIGATION / MONITORING STRATEGY Ensure contingency / back up supply options are in place as appropriate to load. Ensure appropriate security of supply is in place where necessary. N‐1 security in place at grid exit points. Corporate Risk 12 New business venture failure POSSIBLE IMPACTS Adverse financial implications of new business failure. Flow on impact on core business activities (e.g. cash flow shortage). Reputational damage. Negative response from owners / trustees and loss of faith. RISK MITIGATION / MONITORING STRATEGY Set maximum investment levels where new business activity is outside core. Prohibit investments outside of core or related activities. Ensure appropriately experienced and qualified staff are recruited for new ventures. Page 65 of 193 Table 15 continued – Scanpower Corporate Risk Register Corporate Risk 13 Inadequate business continuity planning POSSIBLE IMPACTS Business fails to recover quickly (or at all) following an adverse incident. Associated revenue, reputational and safety issues. Long term value is destroyed. RISK MITIGATION / MONITORING STRATEGY Ensure effective business continuity, disaster recovery, emergency management and data management plans in place. Periodic “rehearsal” and testing of disaster recovery procedures. Corporate Risk 14 Failure of Transpower or electricity generators to deliver POSSIBLE IMPACTS Loss of supply of electricity at generation or transmission level triggers regional emergency and significant loss of income to Scanpower. Typical of a “dry winter” as seen in recent years. Additional costs incurred participating in “national energy savings” campaign. Medically dependent customers exposed. Damage to customer property (e.g. frozen goods etc). Failure of security systems, water and sewage infrastructure etc. RISK MITIGATION / MONITORING STRATEGY Participate in industry wide supply management forums. Ensure load shedding processes are in place with well understood priorities and protocols. Ensure customer communication plan is in place for such an event. Corporate Risk 15 Loss of key staff POSSIBLE IMPACTS Loss of intellectual capital and long term organisational knowledge. Recruitment costs associated with sourcing replacement staff. Potential shortages or lack of suitable replacement staff. 6‐12 month plus disruption to operations and strategy implementation. RISK MITIGATION / MONITORING STRATEGY Retention focused remuneration structures. Remuneration is at least at market (or better) levels. Structured staff reviews and feedback opportunities. Page 66 of 193 Table 15 continued – Scanpower Corporate Risk Register Corporate Risk 16 Inadequate insurance cover POSSIBLE IMPACTS Financial exposure to claims not covered by insurers. Policy conditions result in non‐coverage by insurers. Substantial potential exposure through Oringi Cold Stores division. RISK MITIGATION / MONITORING STRATEGY Engage appropriately qualified and experienced insurance advisors. Board level review of policy cover on an annual basis. Utilise contractual mechanisms to limit liability where appropriate or possible. Consider alternative corporate and ownership structures to isolate areas of high potential liability Corporate Risk 17 Technological advances in distributed generation threaten / compete with the network business POSSIBLE IMPACTS Traditional electricity supply over lines displaced by new technologies as they become more cost effective (e.g. photovoltaic solar, solar water heating, fuel cell technologies). Slow erosion of revenue with no corresponding reduction in costs leads to sharp decline in profitability and cash flows to the point the business cannot be sustained without dramatic price increases (thereby exacerbating the problem). “Creeping” revenue decline is not addressed before it is too late. RISK MITIGATION / MONITORING STRATEGY Develop a longer term strategy around broader energy solutions services. Build organisational competencies and knowledge of new technologies over time. Resources dedicated to external environmental scanning (attending courses, seminars, conferences etc). Consider entering those industries which are in direct competition with electricity networks. Avoid the “Kodak moment”. Diversification into other industries. Corporate Risk 18 Staff fraud / collusion POSSIBLE IMPACTS Staff theft on an isolated or sustained basis. Adverse financial impacts. RISK MITIGATION / MONITORING STRATEGY Management in conjunction with Audit Committee undertakes an assessment of potential sources of fraud / theft. Continue to review findings of annual audits by Audit NZ and ensure recommendations are responded to. Effective internal controls and policies are in place to minimize the threat of fraud or theft. Page 67 of 193 Table 15 continued – Scanpower Corporate Risk Register Corporate Risk 19 Sudden / significant change in board of directors and / or trustees POSSIBLE IMPACTS Significant loss of accumulated organisational knowledge and experience impacts on performance. Extended learning curve / recovery period arising from lack of succession planning. Loss of strategic impetus. Increased potential for conflict and sudden shift in strategic focus. RISK MITIGATION / MONITORING STRATEGY Succession planning and management in place to the best extent possible. Continued close communication between the Board and Trust. 9.3 Insurance As part of the company’s approach to risk management, Scanpower maintains material damage insurance on certain elements of the network asset base and on peripheral but strategically significant non-network assets such as key buildings including the head office and control room areas. Scanpower engages insurance experts JLT on a consultancy basis to provide general risk management and insurance advice, and to secure cover in the insurance market on the company’s behalf. This is done on an annual basis. Due to the nature and configuration of Scanpower’s network asset base (i.e. no subtransmission system or zone substations), in value terms the asset is spread over a wide geographic area; with a replacement cost of $50m across 2,000km2 the average value per square kilometre is $25,000. Correspondingly, there are no major concentrations of asset in terms of value that you mind find in other networks (e.g. substations). Discussions with insurers over the years have highlighted unwillingness on their part to insure the entire asset base, and even if they were it is anticipated that the cost would be prohibitive. Therefore Scanpower only insures the following: Table 16 – Insurance Cover Summary Asset Insured Value Basis of Insurance Dannevirke GXP Ripple Injection Plant $350,000 Replacement Woodville GXP Ripple Injection Plant $350,000 Replacement Poupouatua Radio Comms Repeater $300,000 Replacement $2,400,000 Functional Replacement $850,000 Replacement Network Office Building / Control Room Network Related Software / SCADA / GIS Page 68 of 193 In relation to other network assets such as poles, conductors, switchgear, transformers and so on, Scanpower has opted to self insure these assets. Scanpower’s material damage policy (which includes cover for non-network related assets such as the company’s cold storage business) is underwritten by NZI (47.5%), Vero (27.5%) and QBE (25%). We are not aware of any further reinsurance undertaken by these parties. In deciding to self-insure network assets beyond those specified above, Scanpower took into consideration factors such as: Historical trends in both material damage incidents and costs. The company’s financial ability to meet these costs. Exposure to large scale loss events. In the past ten years, the most significant natural fault events were extremely heavy snow falls in 2003 and the Manawatu floods of 2004. In both cases the asset repairs and replacement necessitated by these events were met from operating cash flow, and the cost of neither was in excess of $150,000. In terms of Scanpower’s ability to fund asset replacement in the event of a large scale loss, the company has the following options / reserves: Each year Scanpower makes a discretionary network discount payment ranging from between $1.5m and $2.0m. This cash flow could be redirected to fund asset replacement if necessary. Scanpower has a flexible financing facility in place with BNZ with a current limit of $5m. Whilst this balance fluctuates from time to time, there is $2.3m funding available as at the date of this asset management plan. Taking into account the above facility, Scanpower has no other significant long term liabilities, and given total assets (as at 31 March 2012) of $38.5 the company is not very highly geared. This provides substantial further borrowing capacity of at least $10m should the situation require it. Taking these historical factors and the company’s financial position, the Board of Scanpower is of the view that the company can adequately self-insure those network assets not otherwise covered by the material damage policy. 9.4 Asset Management Related Risk Management Process Specifically with regard to network assets and asset management systems risk has the following definition: Risk = Likelihood of an Adverse Event x Consequences (cost and/or performance) Page 69 of 193 Practically, Scanpower assesses risk and determines appropriate risk management actions by taking a typical 5x5 matrix qualitative approach to assessing the factors of which is consistent with its safety management system risk assessment process. Figure 16 – Conceptual Risk Assessment Process Scanpower does not have many assets that are categorised as critical, its network is generally robust, and its public relatively tolerant. This places most risk issues in the tolerable region and therefore most risk management actions follow an ALARP (As Low As Reasonably Practical) strategy. ALARP is actually a prescribed approach for SMS and it conforms with the PAS55 standard. The risk management strategies selected depend on the nature risk. In Scanpower’s case most risks are low probability low consequence risks that do not impact company objectives significantly so do not justify much expenditure to eliminate. At the other end of risk scale, the risks that are in the Intolerable high consequence high probability range are normally safety risks and therefore have necessarily been eliminated and/or mitigated. Consequently where they are predictable the AM and operating practices are relatively mature in terms of established contingency, mitigation, quality, and other improvements. Unpredictable risks are addressed with improved SCADA providing timely information and visibility and automation to speed response. Risk is also managed after an event through Contingency Plans, Disaster Recovery Plans (critical spares), and contingency provisions such as generators for security sensitive installations. Scanpower applies a VoLL (Value of Lost Load) analysis to determine the merit of funding enhanced security. This is undertaken as part of the Network Development Plan where security standards are reviewed and issues addressed at system engineering/design level. Page 70 of 193 Figure 17 – Risk Treatment / Risk Characteristics Matrix The asset management risks that have been identified by drilling down from corporate risk identification are summarised in Table 17 below (nb: risk is quantified in terms of the 10 year planning period of this plan): Table 17 – Asset Management Related Risk Summary Asset Management Risk 1 Stranding of line assets due to lower cost of supply technology options for consumers i.e. DG LIKELIHOOD Low CONSEQUENCE High RISK Medium ALARP STRATEGY Minimise investment in transmission development and line upgrades in favour of DG where possible. Asset Management Risk 2 Loss of a large customer LIKELIHOOD Medium CONSEQUENCE Medium RISK Medium ALARP STRATEGY Support with customised efficiency, security and quality of supply measures Page 71 of 193 Table 17 continued – Asset Management Related Risk Summary Asset Management Risk 3 Voltage constraints caused b changing load demographics LIKELIHOOD High CONSEQUENCE Medium RISK High ALARP STRATEGY Increased monitoring and more proactive planning. Asset Management Risk 4 Loss of load control capability LIKELIHOOD Medium CONSEQUENCE Medium RISK Medium ALARP STRATEGY Enhance load control system functionality and take lead on smart meter / smart grid developments. Asset Management Risk 5 Consumer driven developments occurring faster than the network plan/design/build cap LIKELIHOOD High CONSEQUENCE Medium RISK High ALARP STRATEGY Maintain sufficient headroom in Network Development Plan to pre‐empt developments and bring actions forward as necessary. Asset Management Risk 6 Technology capability and resourcing inadequate to meet demand of non‐lines solutions to development needs LIKELIHOOD Medium CONSEQUENCE Medium RISK Medium ALARP STRATEGY Recruit appropriate engineering staff and bring more technical design/planning in house. Page 72 of 193 Table 17 continued – Asset Management Related Risk Summary Asset Management Risk 7 Age profile of field crews LIKELIHOOD High CONSEQUENCE Medium RISK High ALARP STRATEGY Recruit trainees and develop existing staff with the key skills that may be lost to retirements. Asset Management Risk 8 Development of dairying/intensive load in areas more than 20km from a GXP LIKELIHOOD Medium CONSEQUENCE High RISK Medium ALARP STRATEGY R & D on dairy shed energy balance with solar hot water, PV, and biomass. Asset Management Risk 9 Condition of consumer owned lines driving up network operating costs LIKELIHOOD High CONSEQUENCE Medium RISK High ALARP STRATEGY Undertake inspections and notify consumers. Asset Management Risk 10 Maturing plantations on land converted to forestry over‐whelming tree fault statistics LIKELIHOOD High CONSEQUENCE High RISK High ALARP STRATEGY Increase sectionalising automation and line relocations where not practical to increase clearances. Page 73 of 193 9.5 Significant Assumptions Scanpower’s AMP is based on the following assumptions: Significant intensive farming (such as dairying east of the Manawatu River) does not develop more than 20km from a GXP. Specifically no major irrigation development that would support this intensification. Wind generation on the Puketoi Ranges requiring transmission support does develop within the planning horizon of this plan. Note: there is a very large amount of generation consented by 3 different retailers on this range. Projects are on hold for lack of a transmission solution at this time which currently places the likelihood of these developments beyond the planning horizon of this plan. Oil is not discovered in commercially viable volumes in the District driving the development of a large scale new industry in the region. This information is closely guarded commercial information and therefore Scanpower is unable to assess its planning implications. However, consents for drilling have been issued at 2 locations approximately 15Km east of Dannevirke. Growth in dairying, population, and other econometric influences remains consistent. These are the major growth drivers in the NDP (Network Development Plan) forecasts and therefore an optimistic assumption is applied. PV does not develop at a rate faster than the network can economically support with storage, capacity, and voltage management. PV is highly likely to reach the economic trigger point for mass market up-take in the next 10 years. Network planning has a high sensitivity to this pivot point. Major customers remain viable and operating. They are all exporters and so remain sensitive to the global economy and pricing risks. No new industries and/or major customers emerge with intensive energy requirements. This would require a greenfield planning response – the size of Scanpower’s network is relatively small to the potential size of a major user. For example the development of a dairy factory, cement plant, etc. Further detail on planning criteria assumptions can be found in the Network Development Plan section of this document. 9.6 Business Model Risk In terms of the AMP prescription, this describes: “A description of significant factors that may lead to a material difference between the prospective information disclosed and the corresponding actual information recorded in future disclosures” Change issues that may affect the continuity of the AMP from year to year include: Page 74 of 193 Change in polices resulting from reassessment of asset management practices following alignment to PAS 55. The associated change in work practices. The restructuring of Network and Contracting Divisions. The associated restructuring of the staffing establishment and resources. The associated alignment of budgets Page 75 of 193 10. NETWORK DEVELOPMENT PLANNING 10.1 Network Development Plan Summary This section of the AMP details the process of assessing the Network’s future development requirement in order to deliver on Scanpower’s long term business objectives. It records the asset management strategy and planning component of the AM Conceptual Model. That is, it is the Network Division’s Strategic Plan as applied to the assets on which the core business is based. It is referred to as the Network Development Plan. The key features of the existing network with regard to its strategic planning environment are: The network has no sub-transmission system which means it is capacity and voltage constrained. While peak load can be managed to these constraints, load growth results in longer duration of constraints being experienced by consumers. The network has minimal interconnection capability particularly in the urban LV networks. No part of the network meets an N-1 security standard. Some of the more significant differentiators of this network to its peers are; it has very little single phase distribution and its protection/switching is largely still HV expulsion fused based. That is, the network is a traditional, predominantly overhead, manually operated, lineman orientated asset. In a nutshell, this Development Plan seeks to minimise the amount of traditional line orientated development associated with the legacy centralised grid connected power supply, that is becoming increasingly less competitive with the alternative distributed energy systems approach now being quite rapidly enabled by technology. Scanpower seeks to re-align and re-optimise its network over the next 10 years for operation in a distributed energy environment. More specifically: Provide and distribute capacity sourced from the grid on a just in time basis. The investment environment is becoming shorter relative to the longevity and lumpiness of traditional line asset development. Avoid investment in transmission and sub-transmission asset (lines solutions) in favour of Distributed Generation, Smart Grid, etc. (non-line alternative solutions). Shift its network development towards the consumer end i.e. the LV network and its interconnection in order to make it ready to receive PV and EV connection in particular. Develop its network as a platform from which it can offer DG and energy brokering services. This strategy is justified by the high cost path and high risk of traditional line only network development. Technology is changing the life cycle cost and performance drivers. Page 76 of 193 The network must be adaptable to change because technology change outstrips our vision of the future. Scanpower seeks to pre-empt change and adapt its asset base to this future. The key development strategy is to reconfigure the network with a number of 11kV bussing points to which voltage correction can be applied if necessary and from which sub-feeders with smaller load blocks and higher interconnection can be developed. 10.2 Planning Objectives The specific objectives of the planning process include; To forecast load growth to ensure sufficient capacity is available for local economic development. To forecast voltage and capacity constraints and identify shortfalls against Scanpower’s quality standards. To forecast contingent capacity constraints and identify shortfalls against Scanpower’s security standards. To identify the expected timing and/or trigger points of any network development necessary to sustain standards and service delivery triggered by load growth and/or change in the load demographics. To determine the optimal solutions, with regard to cost efficiency, affordability, and service delivery, for resolving development issues. To formulate solutions into a coordinated plan that provides for a sustainable and flexible development path. To demonstrate the network capacity to connect new load, meet new service expectations associated with that new load, and provide an indication of the responsiveness with which network can be developed. To determine the preferred options/solutions for addressing foreseeable issues raised by forecasts. To identify the level of investment and expenditure timetable necessary to cover each foreseeable issue. To develop associated policy necessary to manage risks and forecast fundraising demands. 10.3 Policies and Standards 10.3.1 Voltage Quality Page 77 of 193 Scanpower will upgrade supply as necessary to meet the following voltage quality obligations: Scanpower maintains nominal system voltage delivered at point of connection of the customers assets to its network at +/-6%. Scanpower has no sub-transmission system with automatic voltage control equipment. Its voltage management capability is largely limited to fixed tap settings on distribution transformers. Accordingly, line load voltage regulation must be limited to within the 5% voltage range of is transformers. Regulation over relatively long 11kV lines is the primary constraint issue on Scanpower’s network. Transient voltage dips and flicker that present on the network as the result of large loads stopping and starting can cause disruption/annoyance and affect industrial production which in some instances can have more adverse outcomes than a longer outage. Scanpower addresses this by requiring installation design to comply with AS2279. Voltage disturbance is limited by requiring the Point of Common Coupling to be located where the network has sufficient strength to suppress the disturbance to acceptable levels (as defined in its Connection Standard). For large loads this may require dedicated supplies back to bussing points within the 11kV network. In some instances the Network Development Plan will need to establish suitable bussing and/or voltage control points in key locations. Harmonics are an issue on networks with increasing industrial, dairy and irrigation. Harmonics cause increased heating in electrical plant and equipment and reduce the life of network assets like transformers. Scanpower’s Connection Standard requires compliance with ECP 36 however addressing issues arising has been reactive process. The EEA has drafted a new standard for more proactive management of harmonic levels on networks – Scanpower has adopted this standard. It is expected that there will be a number of legacy issues to be addressed as a result of changing the standard. Better monitoring is an expected benefit of smart meter deployment. Power Factor and losses are related issues to voltage and power quality. These are addressed as part of the assessment of upgrade options. There is very limited economic merit in addressing these issues on a standalone basis. 10.3.2 Security Standard Scanpower has reviewed its Security Standard and concluded that the industry practice of investing in redundant assets and excess capacity on the basis of load size is not economically efficient, equitable, or practical on Scanpower’s network. The loads are too small to justify the levels of expenditure necessary to secure supply in this manner. Accordingly the Security Standard has been rewritten to directly support Scanpower’s outage management objective and target of limiting all HV faults to less than 6500 Customer Minutes Lost (equates to 1 SAIDI minute). This objective treats all customers to a consistent standard – if the fault affects many customers (higher load) as in an urban situation then it must be responded to in a shorter time, if it affects fewer customers as in a remote situation then the response can be longer. Page 78 of 193 The Standard therefore defines the preferred network configuration and contingency provisions necessary to support this objective. For example, specific security provisions for large customers, levels of network interconnection, contingent capacity, and automation. Page 79 of 193 Table 18 – Scanpower Security Standard SCANPOWER SECURITY STANDARD OBJECTIVE All HV faults restored within 1 SAIDI minute following first response getting to site. LARGE ICPs SECURITY PROVISIONS > 1000kVA Dual dedicated 11kV feeders from PCC, CB protected > 500kVA Single dedicated 11kV feeder from PCC, CB protected, critical load secured with Genset > 250kVA Dedicated LV feeder, Transformer/LV interconnection , LV security customer solution >100kVA Transformer/LV interconnection ‐ urban only NETWORK LOAD CENTRES Definition: all load within a mesh network segment able to be by‐passed or all load down stream of a radial network segment if not able to be by‐passed. URBAN ICPs 30% Installed kVA No. of ICP's km Network 90% ICP Restoration (min) CML at Risk >2MVA 1000 10 7.5 7500 >2MVA 500 10 15 7500 >1.5MVA 375 8 20 7500 >1MVA 250 6 30 7500 >500kVA 100 4 75 7500 >250kVA 50 3 150 7500 >100kVA 25 2 300 7500 Contingent Capacity Security Provisions 100% N‐1 1MVA from 2 HV tie points 500kVA from 2 HV tie points 1MVA from 1 HV tie point 100kVA from 4 LV tie points 100kVA from 2 LV tie points 50kVA from 2 LV tie points Closed 11kV N‐1 Ring, Auto‐Sectionalising, DMS/SPS CB Protected, Auto‐sectionalising, Remote Control Tie Switches, Scada Indications CB Protected, Auto‐sectionalising, Remote Fault Indication, Manual Tie Switches CB Protected, Manual/Auto Sectionalising, Remote Fault Indication, Manual Tie Switches Ring Main, Manual/Auto Sectionalising, Remote Fault Indication on Tfmr/LV Feeders, Manual Tie Switches Fuse‐saver, Manual/Auto Sectionalising, Remote Fault Indication on Tfmr/LV Feeders, Manual Tie Switches Fused, Manual Sectionalising, Remote Fault Indication on Tfmr/LV Feeders, Manual Tie Switches Page 80 of 193 Table 18 continued – Scanpower Security Standard Rural (ICP's/km < 5) 20% Installed No. of kVA ICP's km Network 90% ICP Restoration (min) CML at Risk >2MVA 500 100 15 7500 >1.5MVA 375 75 20 7500 >1MVA 250 50 30 7500 >500kVA 100 25 75 7500 >250kVA 50 10 150 7500 >100kVA 25 5 300 7500 Contingent Capacity 1MVA from 2 HV tie points 500kVA from 2 HV tie points 500kVA from 2 HV tie points 500kVA from 2 HV tie points 100kVA from Genset 50kVA from 2 LV tie points Security Provisions CB Protected, Auto‐sectionalising, Remote Control Tie Switches, Scada Indications CB Protected, Auto‐sectionalising, Remote Fault Indication, Manual Tie Switches CB Protected, Manual/Auto Sectionalising, Remote Fault Indication, Manual Tie Switches Ring Main, Manual/Auto Sectionalising, Remote Fault Indication on Tfmr/LV Feeders, Manual Tie Switches Fuse‐saver, Manual/Auto Sectionalising, Remote Fault Indication on Tfmr/LV Feeders, Manual Tie Switches Fused, Manual Sectionalising, Remote Fault Indication on Tfmr/LV Feeders, Manual Tie Switches Page 81 of 193 10.3.3 Contingent Capacity Excess capacity is necessary on a network for: Provision of headroom for new growth between optimal period of upgrade. Provision for unexpected major loads that would trigger major upgrades unable to be delivered within the development time of the new load. This reduces the “lack of available capacity” from presenting hurdles to economic development. Support of adjacent supplies during maintenance outages i.e. operational headroom. Where capacity is constrained, constraint on work practices and timing can increase operational costs. Tie capacity between feeders as a specific strategy for minimising unplanned outage and restoration/response times. Scanpower limits contingent capacity on each 11kV feeder to level that correlates to the 5-10% voltage drop band. That is when voltage drop reaches 5% a feeder capacity upgrade is triggered. For temporary situations such as new load connecting or outages, Scanpower’s voltage standards relax to 10% 10.3.4 Alternative Solutions The Dannevirke GXP has a 20MVA N-1 capacity and the Woodville GXP has a 10MVA N-1 capacity. Scanpower ‘s network is not able to fully distribute this capacity to its major load centres as a result of the distance/voltage limitations at 11kV. No part of Scanpower’s network is built to an N-1 Security Standard. The tie capacity between feeders is insufficient to support a half bus shutdown at a GXP. The fundamental issue is that the network has reached its design limitations without the addition of a sub-transmission system to distribute bulk capacity closer to its load centres. To develop a sub-transmission system is estimated to cost in the order of $15M and is not considered a cost effective solution by Scanpower. Consequently Scanpower must commit to an alternative development strategy. This strategy has the following main approaches: The 11kV network will be reconfigured to maximise capacity able to be delivered to bussing points closer to load centres where voltage correction can be applied and where N-1 security can also be delivered closer to major loads. The same reconfiguration would be applied as part of the development of a sub-transmission system so in the event of a very major new load forcing the need for sub-transmission, the development can be adapted without loss of value. To provide for new capacity, beyond the optimal configuration of the existing 11kV network and the addition of voltage correction equipment, Scanpower will develop its own portfolio of distributed generation, load management, and energy Page 82 of 193 diversification/efficiency measures. Facilitating these alternatives not only reduces the cost of providing line function services but competes with grid connected supply. The initial tactic will be to install standby generator sets to secure major loads. This is not only lower cost to securing supply with line solutions but it contributes to establishing a firm generation base component for developing a distributed energy system on. 10.4 Planning Methodology The following methodology has been adopted; 1. Review standards against company policies and objectives. 2. Determine conductor capacities. 3. Determine contingent capacity constraints for load growth and contingent support at feeder tie points. 4. Analyse base load growth by feeder. 5. Identify load growth driven by econometric factors such as dairy conversion and irrigation. 6. Identify new loads and projects such as industrial developments, sub-divisions, generation, infrastructure upgrades, etc. 7. Project load growth on each feeder over the planning horizon to forecast when constraints are likely to compromise standards. 8. Determine the optimal network reconfiguration to address issues identified. That is, address the issue of the network’s past design no longer being optimal for its future load characteristics. 9. Re-allocate the growth assumptions and projections across the reconfigured/optimal network to identify which underlying development issues remain. 10. Investigate alternative development options. A risk assessment test is included to ensure can invest, control, and manage alternatives such that they are able to be committed to as a long term strategy. 11. Determine a development strategy and associated preferred solutions. This process involves costing to determine which solution deliver the most economic and service value at least cost over the long term. 12. The forecast is then projected with the preferred solutions deployed and the process reiterated until sufficient development headroom is established, with sufficient flexibility to meet potential development challenges arising in the medium term (10 year horizon). 13. The plans timeline is then adjusted for funding considerations. Page 83 of 193 10.4.1 Limitations of the Planning Process By virtue of the fact that forecasting involves extrapolating historical data into the future, the NDP has accuracy limitations the further into the long term it is projected. Its long range value is simply to avoid any development issues that may result in not being able to sustainably meet Scanpower’s business objectives. For example, large load developments are unlikely to be visible more than 3 years in advance. Load forecasts are driven by peak demand data which may have very short load duration. Where these peaks affect continuity of supply via protection trippings, then the applying peak demand is a necessity. This results in a worst case forecast. Where there is good diversity or low risk resulting from low duration of peak conditions some judgement on critically can be made. However, Scanpower’s network is relatively small and fed directly from Transpower at 11kV. Accordingly there is a comparatively lower level of diversity and feeder profiles are typically dominated by specific load groups, e.g. dairy sheds. Forecast timetables are also quite limited particularly in the short term. It is based on long term historical trend, whereas short-term economic and climatic conditions can create load variance of as much as 40% in a single year. To address development lead-time issues growth forecasts and timing to be optimistic which is a conservative approach. It is intended that developments that prove to be premature can be deferred. There is also a lower probability that all developments that are possible will ultimately be developed. The plan however needs to demonstrate that they are catered for. Consequently expenditure forecasts are likely to prove an overstatement. That is, the plan is optimistic. 10.5 Network Gap Analysis 10.5.1 Network Demand Profiles The forecasting process starts from historical data points that are known and accurate. In this case that data used as the 2012 starting points for each feeder are the monthly maximum demand recorded on the Transpower GXP feeder breakers. These are not diversified as the protection and operating limitations of each feeder function on the anytime maximum demand. The diversity at system level between feeders equates to approximately 17%. The diversity between feeders with similar load characteristics is significantly less, given that the feeders most likely to be used to support each, are adjacent to each other and therefore similar in characteristics to each other, no diversity is assumed when planning at feeder level. Plotting these monthly values provides the seasonal profile of each feeder and therefore summating these profiles gives a system profile diversified on a monthly basis. In Scanpower’s case the peak demand occurs during August. That is, traditional winter peak with an early dairy season start. With the freezing works killing season extending for 11 months p.a. there is no longer a winter off-season to reduce the impact of peak winter domestic heating demand. Summer irrigation load has not developed to the point where it is driving summer peaking. Page 84 of 193 Figure 18 – Maximum Loadings by Feeder (2011) 10.5.2 Contingent Capacity The main backbone of Scanpower’s feeders is conductored with “Dog” ACSR (Aluminium Conductor, Steel Reinforced). After de-rating for designed operating temperature, hot spots such as connections, etc. Dog has a thermal (current related) capacity limit of 4.4MW. In order for a feeder to carry contingent load of a GXP half-bus shutdown, N-1 design criteria would target a maximum load of 2.2MW on each GXP feeder CB. The Dannevirke GXP bus has 8 feeders distributing 19MW of transformer capacity i.e. 2.4MW each (4.8MW during contingency) which is marginally over the thermal capacity of a feeder requiring load to be balanced and diversity utilised to manage contingency. However, Scanpower’s network has a radial configuration and no sub-transmission with relatively fewer feeders than a more developed network. This means that not only are feeder loads higher than typical 11kV feeders but the loads are relatively remote to the GXP and not well interconnected. For example, the urban feeders have loads in the order of 2-3MW located more than 6km away from the GXP with minimal distributed load along the way. Page 85 of 193 Figure 19 – Contingent Capacity for Dog Conductor at 11kV Contingent Capacity for Dog Overhead Conductor at 11kV Load MW (0.95pf) km to 5%VD km to 10%VD 1.0 14.0 28.0 2.0 7.0 14.0 3.0 4.7 9.4 4.0 3.5 7.0 5.0 2.8 5.6 6.0 2.3 4.7 Note: Thermal limit (MW) Summer @ 75degC 6.7 Derate 35% for connectors, lower operating temp., etc. 4.4 Therefore the 5% VD distance limit (km) at max. thermal rating is 3.2 As a consequence, the network is voltage constrained. That is, high currents over long distances result in voltage drop that exceeds standards. For Dog conductor operated at 11kV the thermal 4.4MW capacity limit is constrained to 5% volt drop at a distance of only 3.2km. Page 86 of 193 Table 19 – Contingent Capacity Calculations by Feeder Feeder Central East Adelaide Max Demand Dist. To Load Growth Cap. MW km 5% VD 3.1 6.1 ‐0.7 2.3 2.8 6.1 6.7 0.1 ‐0.7 Primary Tie Dist. to Tie Contingent Load Thermal Limit Cont. Capacity Cont. Capacity km MW % OL 5%VD 10%VD ABS 21 – East 6.2 1.2 ‐2% ‐2.1 0.0 ABS15 ‐ Adelaide 7.6 1.4 3% ‐2.7 ‐0.8 ABS 21 ‐ Central 6.2 1.6 ‐12% ‐1.7 0.5 ABS182 ‐ Weber 7.5 2.0 ‐1% ‐2.4 ‐0.6 A19 ‐ Mangatera 7.3 1.3 ‐5% ‐2.4 ‐0.3 ABS15 ‐ Central 7.8 1.6 0% ‐2.6 ‐0.8 Weber 2.0 9.8 ‐0.4 ABS182 ‐ East 7.5 1.2 ‐28% ‐1.3 0.6 Mangatera 1.9 14.8 ‐1.0 A19 ‐ Adelaide 7.7 1.4 ‐24% ‐1.5 0.4 A105 ‐ North 14.8 1.9 ‐13% ‐2.9 ‐2.0 North 1.9 14.0 ‐0.9 A105 ‐ Mangatera 14.0 1.9 ‐13% VR's ‐1.8 Pacific 1.4 10.4 0.1 ABS35 ‐ Te Rehunga 6.8 1.1 ‐43% closed ring 0.3 Te Rehunga 1.1 4.0 2.4 ABS35 ‐ Pacific 4.0 1.4 ‐43% 1.0 1.9 Danevirke GXP 16.5 Diversified 14.1 117% Town 1 1.10 5.3 1.7 A106 ‐ Town 2 5.3 1.10 ‐49% 0.6 2.2 Country 0.90 5.3 1.9 A109 ‐ Town 1 5.3 1.10 ‐54% 0.8 2.4 Town 2 1.10 5.3 1.7 A106‐ Town 1 5.3 1.10 ‐49% 0.6 2.2 Woodville GXP 3.10 Diversified 2.8 111% Page 87 of 193 Analysis of voltage drop resulting during peak feeder demands and the additional demand presented by neighbouring feeders at tie points during contingent events indicates that: In normal conditions volt drop exceeds 5% during peak periods and the duration of the excursion from this standard is increasing as load grows. The system is approaching the limit in terms of Scanpower’s capability to manage this to acceptable limits. There is minimal headroom for growth. There is minimal contingent capacity for security during faults and for operational outages necessary for upgrades to relieve such constraints. These issues define the problem that the Network Development Planning process must solve. Forecast load growth is projected against these constraints to determine when upgrade is necessary. Analysis shows that Scanpower has the following urgent development needs. That is, the forecast starts from a position of constraint: The Central Feeder which supplies the main commercial/retail centre of Dannevirke – at 3.1MW 6.1km from the GXP it exceeds the 5% Volt Drop standard during peak times. This will worsen with new developments currently in progress and it has no contingent capacity to support either the Adelaide (urban residential load) or the East Feeder (light industrial) during outages. Consequently there is also emerging gap with respect to Scanpower’s security standards. Similarly the load on the North Feeder has reached the voltage correction capability of the Matamau Regulators. The regulators are limited in their capacity to 2MW, have a limited boosting range of 10%, and limited resolution in tap steps at 2.5% (which is visible and a quality issue for consumers). The Weber Feeders main line extends 70km with no voltage correction. Supply of any quality is only feasible if loads remain very small and their utilisation very low. This is not likely to continue should dairy conversion increase its command area towards the coast. The current network configuration has reached the end of designed development potential with regard to new load. 10.5.3 Growth Assumptions Scanpower has a relatively small base load and is constrained. Accordingly, it can be sensitive to new loads (even though they may be small in terms of modern installation norms), triggering extensive upgrade requirements. Further, changing load demographics, such an increase in more intensive dairy farming, displacing low intensity sheep farming, not only changes the service expectations of consumers, but can increase peak demand (which drives network upgrade) without necessarily presenting a high energy consumption, kWh, growth. Page 88 of 193 Table 20 – Load Growth Forecast Assumptions Annual Demand Growth MW % 2011 1.10 6.97% 2012 0.54 3.78% Average 0.82 5.38% Base Load Component 0.43 2.82% Feeder 2012 Growth p.a. Central 3.10 0.09 East 2.30 0.06 Adelaide 2.80 0.08 Weber 2.00 0.06 Mangatera 1.90 0.05 North 1.90 0.05 Pacific 1.40 0.04 Te Rehunga 1.10 0.03 Dannevirke GXP 16.50 0.47 Town 1 1.10 0.03 Country 0.90 0.03 Town 2 1.10 0.03 Woodville GXP 3.10 0.09 Planned / Known New Developments ‐ 3 Year Projection Feeder Total 2013 2014 2015 Central 0.80 0.30 0.40 0.10 East 0.60 0.10 0.30 0.30 Adelaide 0.30 0.10 0.10 0.10 Weber 0.10 0.00 0.05 0.05 Mangatera 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 North 0.15 0.05 0.05 0.05 Pacific 0.30 0.10 0.10 0.10 Te Rehunga 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Dannevirke GXP 2.25 0.65 1.00 0.70 Town 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Country 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Town 2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Woodville GXP 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Page 89 of 193 Table 20 continued – Load Growth Forecast Assumptions Dairy Growth Assumptions Total Sheds 237 Below 30kVA ‐ to be upgraded 151 Over 30kVA ‐ New/Upgraded 86 Quantity Per Unit MW New Sheds p.a. 3 0.075 0.225 Shed Upgrades p.a. 2 0.045 0.090 Total 5 0.120 0.315 N.B New/upgraded sheds have been installed over 17 year period = 5 p.a. This load is concentrated on the Te Rehunga, North/Mangatera, Country There is potential for sheep to dairy conversion on the Weber feeder between the Manawatu River and Puketoi Range Irrigation Growth Assumptions Scanpower has 2MW of dedicated Irrigation Pump load averaging 75kW per connection / 1 new connection p.a. No. Per Unit MW New Pumps 1 0.075 Total 1 0.075 MW 0.075 Scanpower’s average peak demand growth over the past two years has been 5.38% p.a. There has been a strong recovery from loss of the Oringi Freezing Works. This event has been masking recent growth figures. Demand has since recovered and is forecast to continue growth at this rate. To prevent error in growth rates compounding absolute MW figures are applied. Firstly, the base load growth assumption is determined to be 2.82% which equates to 0.43MW p.a. proportioned across each feeder. Any new and specific loads known are added in the year they are expected. This is only projected for 3 years because it is unlikely Scanpower gets any longer warning and three years is sufficient time to adjust and implement plans for new loads undisclosed. Loads such as dairy conversion and irrigation can be predicted from historical trends and econometric data. For example, assessing the trend in the number of Ha of dairy conversion p.a. and the electricity consumption per Ha of irrigation. 10.5.4 Load Forecast Baseline The baseline forecast takes the above data and builds a model projecting cumulating load growth for each feeder over 20 years to identify which year the network in its existing state would fall short of service standards. Page 90 of 193 The Dannevirke GXP is constrained by its N-1 capacity of 19MW by 2018 and will require an additional 10MW of capacity by the end of the 20 year planning horizon. Note however this assumes all modelled loads and all feeders eventuate as forecast. The challenge this issue raises is that if Scanpower were to opt to develop a subtransmission system to resolve voltage constraint on its network (the GXP transformers have 33kV tappings) the GXP would also need significant upgrade. In addition to the $15M of 33kV network development the GXP would require another $10M of new investment. This path is not likely to meet affordability limitations and Scanpower would be at risk of its consumers migrating to non-grid supply, stranding the investment. The ultimate value proposition for the existing transmission assets is to change their utilisation from off-take connection assets to injection connection assets. That is, as grid injection point for distributed generation of up to 40MW above network load. The baseline forecast shows that following feeders exceed their 5% voltage constraint now (2012) Weber, Managatera, Central, Adelaide. The East feeder becomes constrained in 2014, Pacific in 2015, and Te Rehunga in 2021. That is, every feeder on the Dannevirke GXP within the 10 year planning horizon of the Asset Management Plan. At current growth forecasts no issues are visible for any feeders on the Woodville GXP. Page 91 of 193 Table 21 – Load Growth Forecasts by Feeder Dannevirke Feeders Weber Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 1.60 3.75 2.00 0.06 2013 1.60 3.75 2.14 0.06 2014 1.60 3.75 2.20 0.06 0.05 2015 1.60 3.75 2.31 0.06 0.05 2016 1.60 3.75 2.42 0.06 0.08 2.14 2017 1.60 3.75 2.48 0.06 2018 1.60 3.75 2.61 0.06 2019 1.60 3.75 2.67 0.06 2020 1.60 3.75 2.73 0.06 2021 1.60 3.75 2.79 0.06 0.08 2.20 2.31 2.42 2.48 2.61 2022 1.60 3.75 2.85 0.06 2023 1.60 3.75 2.99 0.06 2024 1.60 3.75 3.05 0.06 2025 1.60 3.75 3.11 0.06 2026 1.60 3.75 3.17 0.06 0.08 2027 1.60 3.75 3.23 0.06 2028 1.60 3.75 3.36 0.06 2029 1.60 3.75 3.42 0.06 2030 1.60 3.75 3.48 0.06 2031 1.60 3.75 3.54 0.06 0.08 2.67 2.73 2.79 2.85 2.99 3.05 3.11 3.17 3.23 3.36 3.42 3.48 3.54 3.60 2031 0.90 3.70 4.28 0.05 Mangatera Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 0.90 3.70 1.90 0.05 2013 0.90 3.70 2.00 0.05 2014 0.90 3.70 2.20 0.05 2015 0.90 3.70 2.29 0.05 2016 0.90 3.70 2.42 0.05 2017 0.90 3.70 2.51 0.05 2018 0.90 3.70 2.64 0.05 2019 0.90 3.70 2.81 0.05 2020 0.90 3.70 2.93 0.05 2021 0.90 3.70 3.03 0.05 2022 0.90 3.70 3.15 0.05 2023 0.90 3.70 3.25 0.05 2024 0.90 3.70 3.45 0.05 2025 0.90 3.70 3.54 0.05 2026 0.90 3.70 3.67 0.05 2027 0.90 3.70 3.76 0.05 2028 0.90 3.70 3.89 0.05 2029 0.90 3.70 4.06 0.05 2030 0.90 3.70 4.18 0.05 0.05 0.15 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.08 0.12 0.08 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.15 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.08 0.12 0.08 0.05 2.00 2.20 2.29 2.42 2.51 2.64 2.81 2.93 3.03 3.15 3.25 3.45 3.54 3.67 3.76 3.89 4.06 4.18 4.28 4.33 Central Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 2.40 4.30 3.10 0.09 2013 2.40 4.30 3.19 0.09 0.30 2014 2.40 4.30 3.58 0.09 0.40 2015 2.40 4.30 4.07 0.09 0.10 2016 2.40 4.30 4.26 0.09 2017 2.40 4.30 4.35 0.09 2018 2.40 4.30 4.44 0.09 2019 2.40 4.30 4.53 0.09 2020 2.40 4.30 4.62 0.09 2021 2.40 4.30 4.71 0.09 2022 2.40 4.30 4.80 0.09 2023 2.40 4.30 4.89 0.09 2024 2.40 4.30 4.98 0.09 2025 2.40 4.30 5.07 0.09 2026 2.40 4.30 5.16 0.09 2027 2.40 4.30 5.25 0.09 2028 2.40 4.30 5.34 0.09 2029 2.40 4.30 5.43 0.09 2030 2.40 4.30 5.52 0.09 2031 2.40 4.30 5.61 0.09 3.19 3.58 4.07 4.26 4.35 4.44 4.53 4.62 4.71 4.80 4.89 4.98 5.07 5.16 5.25 5.34 5.43 5.52 5.61 5.70 Page 92 of 193 Table 21 continued – Load Growth Forecasts by Feeder Pacific Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load Bus Section 1 (non diversified) Bus Section 2 (non diversified) East Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 1.50 2.80 1.40 0.04 2013 1.50 2.80 1.44 0.04 0.20 2014 1.50 2.80 1.68 0.04 0.05 2015 1.50 2.80 1.77 0.04 0.05 2016 1.50 2.80 1.86 0.04 2017 1.50 2.80 1.90 0.04 2018 1.50 2.80 1.94 0.04 2019 1.50 2.80 1.98 0.04 2020 1.50 2.80 2.02 0.04 2021 1.50 2.80 2.06 0.04 2022 1.50 2.80 2.10 0.04 2023 1.50 2.80 2.14 0.04 2024 1.50 2.80 2.18 0.04 2025 1.50 2.80 2.22 0.04 2026 1.50 2.80 2.26 0.04 2027 1.50 2.80 2.30 0.04 2028 1.50 2.80 2.34 0.04 2029 1.50 2.80 2.38 0.04 2030 1.50 2.80 2.42 0.04 2031 1.50 2.80 2.46 0.04 1.44 1.68 1.77 1.86 1.90 1.94 1.98 2.02 2.06 2.10 2.14 2.18 2.22 2.26 2.30 2.34 2.38 2.42 2.46 2.50 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 8.76 9.65 10.44 10.95 11.24 11.63 11.99 12.30 12.59 12.90 13.26 13.65 13.94 14.25 14.54 14.93 15.29 15.60 15.89 16.13 8.52 9.15 10.09 11.00 11.42 11.80 12.22 12.68 13.17 13.55 13.97 14.35 14.84 15.30 15.72 16.10 16.52 16.98 17.47 17.71 2012 2.40 4.30 2.30 0.06 2013 2.40 4.30 2.36 0.06 0.10 2014 2.40 4.30 2.52 0.06 0.30 2015 2.40 4.30 2.88 0.06 0.30 2016 2.40 4.30 3.24 0.06 2017 2.40 4.30 3.30 0.06 2018 2.40 4.30 3.36 0.06 2019 2.40 4.30 3.42 0.06 2020 2.40 4.30 3.48 0.06 2021 2.40 4.30 3.54 0.06 2022 2.40 4.30 3.60 0.06 2023 2.40 4.30 3.66 0.06 2024 2.40 4.30 3.72 0.06 2025 2.40 4.30 3.78 0.06 2026 2.40 4.30 3.84 0.06 2027 2.40 4.30 3.90 0.06 2028 2.40 4.30 3.96 0.06 2029 2.40 4.30 4.02 0.06 2030 2.40 4.30 4.08 0.06 2031 4.89 4.30 4.14 0.04 2.36 2.52 2.88 3.24 3.30 3.36 3.42 3.48 3.54 3.60 3.66 3.72 3.78 3.84 3.90 3.96 4.02 4.08 4.14 4.18 Page 93 of 193 Table 21 continued – Load Growth Forecasts by Feeder North Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 1.00 2.00 1.90 0.05 2014 1.00 2.00 2.17 0.05 0.05 0.15 2015 1.00 2.00 2.42 0.05 0.05 0.05 2016 1.00 2.00 2.57 0.05 2017 1.00 2.00 2.69 0.05 2018 1.00 2.00 2.79 0.05 2019 1.00 2.00 2.91 0.05 2020 1.00 2.00 3.08 0.05 2021 1.00 2.00 3.21 0.05 2022 1.00 2.00 3.30 0.05 2023 1.00 2.00 3.43 0.05 2024 1.00 2.00 3.52 0.05 2025 1.00 2.00 3.72 0.05 2026 1.00 2.00 3.82 0.05 2027 1.00 2.00 3.94 0.05 2028 1.00 2.00 4.04 0.05 2029 1.00 2.00 4.16 0.05 2030 1.00 2.00 4.33 0.05 2031 1.00 2.00 4.46 0.05 0.08 2013 1.00 2.00 2.03 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.08 0.12 0.08 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.15 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.08 0.12 0.08 0.05 2.03 2.17 2.42 2.57 2.69 2.79 2.91 3.08 3.21 3.30 3.43 3.52 3.72 3.82 3.94 4.04 4.16 4.33 4.46 4.55 Adelaide Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 2.10 3.80 2.80 0.08 2013 2.10 3.80 2.88 0.08 0.10 2014 2.10 3.80 3.06 0.08 0.10 2015 2.10 3.80 3.24 0.08 0.10 2016 2.10 3.80 3.42 0.08 2017 2.10 3.80 3.50 0.08 2018 2.10 3.80 3.58 0.08 2019 2.10 3.80 3.66 0.08 2020 2.10 3.80 3.74 0.08 2021 2.10 3.80 3.82 0.08 2022 2.10 3.80 3.90 0.08 2023 2.10 3.80 3.98 0.08 2024 2.10 3.80 4.06 0.08 2025 2.10 3.80 4.14 0.08 2026 2.10 3.80 4.22 0.08 2027 2.10 3.80 4.30 0.08 2028 2.10 3.80 4.38 0.08 2029 2.10 3.80 4.46 0.08 2030 2.10 3.80 4.54 0.08 2031 2.10 3.80 4.62 0.08 2.88 3.06 3.24 3.42 3.50 3.58 3.66 3.74 3.82 3.90 3.98 4.06 4.14 4.22 4.30 4.38 4.46 4.54 4.62 4.70 Te Rehunga Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 2.40 4.40 1.10 0.03 2013 2.40 4.40 1.25 0.03 2014 2.40 4.40 1.40 0.03 2015 2.40 4.40 1.55 0.03 2016 2.40 4.40 1.78 0.03 2017 2.40 4.40 1.93 0.03 2018 2.40 4.40 2.08 0.03 2019 2.40 4.40 2.23 0.03 2020 2.40 4.40 2.38 0.03 2021 2.40 4.40 2.60 0.03 2022 2.40 4.40 2.75 0.03 2023 2.40 4.40 2.90 0.03 2024 2.40 4.40 3.05 0.03 2025 2.40 4.40 3.20 0.03 2026 2.40 4.40 3.43 0.03 2027 2.40 4.40 3.58 0.03 2028 2.40 4.40 3.73 0.03 2029 2.40 4.40 3.88 0.03 2030 2.40 4.40 4.03 0.03 2031 2.40 4.40 4.25 0.03 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.20 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.20 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.20 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.20 1.25 1.40 1.55 1.78 1.93 2.08 2.23 2.38 2.60 2.75 2.90 3.05 3.20 3.43 3.58 3.73 3.88 4.03 4.25 4.28 Page 94 of 193 Table 21 continued – Load Growth Forecasts by Feeder Total (Dannevirke) Constraint N‐1 Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 20.00 14.10 0.43 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.00 14.85 2013 20.00 14.85 0.43 0.45 0.32 0.00 0.00 16.04 2014 20.00 16.04 0.43 0.55 0.32 0.00 0.00 17.34 2015 20.00 17.34 0.43 0.55 0.32 0.00 0.00 18.63 2016 20.00 18.63 0.43 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.00 19.30 2017 20.00 19.30 0.43 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.00 20.05 2018 20.00 20.05 0.43 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.00 20.79 2019 20.00 20.79 0.43 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.00 21.54 2020 20.00 21.54 0.43 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.00 22.28 2021 20.00 22.28 0.43 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.00 22.95 2022 20.00 22.95 0.43 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.00 23.70 2023 20.00 23.70 0.43 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.00 24.44 2024 20.00 24.44 0.43 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.00 25.19 2025 20.00 25.19 0.43 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.00 25.93 2026 20.00 25.93 0.43 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.00 26.60 2027 20.00 26.60 0.43 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.00 27.35 2028 20.00 27.35 0.43 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.00 28.09 2029 20.00 28.09 0.43 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.00 28.84 2030 20.00 28.84 0.43 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.00 29.58 2031 20.00 29.58 0.35 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 29.98 Town 1 Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 2.80 4.40 1.10 0.03 2013 2.80 4.40 1.13 0.03 2014 2.80 4.40 1.16 0.03 2015 2.80 4.40 1.19 0.03 2016 2.80 4.40 1.22 0.03 2017 2.80 4.40 1.25 0.03 2018 2.80 4.40 1.28 0.03 2019 2.80 4.40 1.31 0.03 2020 2.80 4.40 1.34 0.03 2021 2.80 4.40 1.37 0.03 2022 2.80 4.40 1.40 0.03 2023 2.80 4.40 1.43 0.03 2024 2.80 4.40 1.46 0.03 2025 2.80 4.40 1.49 0.03 2026 2.80 4.40 1.52 0.03 2027 2.80 4.40 1.55 0.03 2028 2.80 4.40 1.58 0.03 2029 2.80 4.40 1.61 0.03 2030 2.80 4.40 1.64 0.03 2031 2.80 4.40 1.67 0.03 1.13 1.16 1.19 1.22 1.25 1.28 1.31 1.34 1.37 1.40 1.43 1.46 1.49 1.52 1.55 1.58 1.61 1.64 1.67 1.70 Country Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 2.80 4.40 0.90 0.03 2013 2.80 4.40 1.01 0.03 2014 2.80 4.40 1.11 0.03 2015 2.80 4.40 1.22 0.03 2016 2.80 4.40 1.32 0.03 2017 2.80 4.40 1.50 0.03 2018 2.80 4.40 1.61 0.03 2019 2.80 4.40 1.71 0.03 2020 2.80 4.40 1.82 0.03 2021 2.80 4.40 1.92 0.03 2022 2.80 4.40 2.03 0.03 2023 2.80 4.40 2.13 0.03 2024 2.80 4.40 2.24 0.03 2025 2.80 4.40 2.34 0.03 2026 2.80 4.40 2.45 0.03 2027 2.80 4.40 2.55 0.03 2028 2.80 4.40 2.66 0.03 2029 2.80 4.40 2.76 0.03 2030 2.80 4.40 2.87 0.03 2031 2.80 4.40 2.97 0.03 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.15 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 1.01 1.11 1.22 1.32 1.50 1.61 1.71 1.82 1.92 2.03 2.13 2.24 2.34 2.45 2.55 2.66 2.76 2.87 2.97 3.08 Woodville Feeders Page 95 of 193 Table 21 continued – Load Growth Forecasts by Feeder Town 2 Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 2.80 4.40 1.10 0.03 2013 2.80 4.40 1.13 0.03 2014 2.80 4.40 1.16 0.03 2015 2.80 4.40 1.19 0.03 2016 2.80 4.40 1.22 0.03 2017 2.80 4.40 1.25 0.03 2018 2.80 4.40 1.28 0.03 2019 2.80 4.40 1.31 0.03 2020 2.80 4.40 1.34 0.03 2021 2.80 4.40 1.37 0.03 2022 2.80 4.40 1.40 0.03 2023 2.80 4.40 1.43 0.03 2024 2.80 4.40 1.46 0.03 2025 2.80 4.40 1.49 0.03 2026 2.80 4.40 1.52 0.03 2027 2.80 4.40 1.55 0.03 2028 2.80 4.40 1.58 0.03 2029 2.80 4.40 1.61 0.03 2030 2.80 4.40 1.64 0.03 2031 2.80 4.40 1.67 0.03 1.13 1.16 1.19 1.22 1.25 1.28 1.31 1.34 1.37 1.40 1.43 1.46 1.49 1.52 1.55 1.58 1.61 1.64 1.67 1.70 Total (Woodville) Constraint N‐1 Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 10.00 2.80 0.09 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 2.97 2013 10.00 2.97 0.09 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 3.13 2014 10.00 3.13 0.09 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 3.30 2015 10.00 3.30 0.09 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 3.46 2016 10.00 3.46 0.09 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.00 3.70 2017 10.00 3.70 0.09 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 3.87 2018 10.00 3.87 0.09 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 4.03 2019 10.00 4.03 0.09 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 4.20 2020 10.00 4.20 0.09 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 4.36 2021 10.00 4.36 0.09 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 4.53 2022 10.00 4.53 0.09 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 4.69 2023 10.00 4.69 0.09 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 4.86 2024 10.00 4.86 0.09 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 5.02 2025 10.00 5.02 0.09 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 5.19 2026 10.00 5.19 0.09 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 5.35 2027 10.00 5.35 0.09 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 5.52 2028 10.00 5.52 0.09 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 5.68 2029 10.00 5.68 0.09 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 5.85 2030 10.00 5.85 0.09 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 6.01 2031 10.00 6.01 0.09 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 6.18 Page 96 of 193 10.5.5 Network Optimisation Before consideration is given to upgrading the network with additional lines, heavier conductor, etc. which is expensive, Scanpower will optimise utilisation of existing assets by reconfiguring the network into a more efficient structure. Scanpower’s existing feeder structure is long and radial, relatively highly load, relatively few feeders, with limited tie points, located at distances too remote for the capacity they are capable of supporting. For example, there is a tie point between Norsewood on the North feeder and Ormondville on the Mangatera feeder. The North feeder is unable to support the Ormondville load because it has a constraint on its voltage regulators and also Mangatera has no voltage regulators so there is voltage mismatch at the tie point. The Mangatera feeder supplies the Alliance Works and so most of its capacity is consumed well before Ormondville i.e. it cannot deliver sufficient tie capacity to support Norsewood. These issues can be relieved by: Segmenting the remote feeder ends of the network into smaller sub-feeders with smaller loads to be supported during contingent events. Smaller loads over shorter distances equates to more capacity. This also reduces the number of customers affected by an outage improving outage statistics. Reconfiguring the front end of feeders to act as incomers to bussing points which branch out to the sub-feeders. This concept will have a structure similar to a subtransmission system. It provides a point to which voltage correction equipment can be applied efficiently, improving the capacity of the downstream network and enabling the front end of the network to be driven harder because it is not so limited by line load regulation. This solution has a low risk in that, should it ever prove necessary to develop a sub-transmission, the bussing points can effectively be reused as zone substations. With more sub-feeders, an increased number of tie points (interconnections) can be provisioned, increasing the meshing of the network and therefore its operational flexibility with regard to contingent events. One advantage of this is that it is possible to extend N-1 security to the Dannevirke CBD and increase the N-1 capacity by redeploying 3 feeders as parallel incomers to a bussing point. Bussing points (11kV switching stations) also provide an opportunity to increase the automation on the network facilitating improved security measures and concentrating load for application of standby generation. Scanpower has determined the following switching stations and network reconfigurations can be achieved with minimal line build: Develop the Matamau Volt Regulator site on the North feeder as switching station with three feeders replacing the existing regulator with a bigger 3MVA 3 phase (eliminating harmonic issues with 2 phase boosting) arrangement recovered from the Oringi site. Page 97 of 193 Develop a new Dannevirke North switching station on the Mangatera feeder with three sub-feeders segmenting Adelaide load into three blocks and separating the Alliance site from rural load. Develop a new 6 feeder, 3 incomer, 3 bus section Dannevirke South switching station capable of delivering 8.1MW of N-1 firm capacity (the existing 3 feeders have no or little N level contingent capacity). Redeploy the Oringi site 11kV switchboard as a bussing point that feeds back out onto the network. This will require some short line connections to be built. The Weber feeder is currently very large in terms of km of line and area of the network serviced. However it consists of two main branches which can be split into separate feeeders by redeploying the Pacific CB and one of the old incoming circuits to Oringi. This only requires a few km of line build. The existing Oringi connection will remain as a backup supply. Provided below are line schematics of the existing and proposed line configurations in respect of the Matamau, Dannevirke North, Dannevirke South and Oringi switching stations. Page 98 of 193 Page 99 of 193 Page 100 of 193 Page 101 of 193 Page 102 of 193 Page 103 of 193 Page 104 of 193 Page 105 of 193 Page 106 of 193 10.5.6 Other Lines Solutions Considered In addition to developing a sub-transmission which has been excluded on the grounds of affordability and the risk of stranding, Scanpower has considered the following lines solutions to distributing more capacity: Developing an additional GXP nearer to Norsewood approximately 20km north of the Dannevirke GXP. This option is estimated to cost in order of $10M for the GXP and an additional $5M for feeder development on Scanpower’s network. Not only is this a more expensive option, with a more lumpy investment profile, it is not a comprehensive solution for the entire network covering the range of development paths that may occur. It also cannot be delivered by Transpower within the timeframes necessary. However the decision to exclude this option was based on the risk of investing in transmission asset. Increasing the voltage standard on parts of the constrained feeders to 22kV. This is a viable option for the first 6km of the East and Central feeders which have relative few transformers to be upgraded. It is far less viable for Scanpower’s longer rural feeders. Each feeder upgraded would require a pair of auto-transformers to step voltage up at the GXP and then down again at the other end. They would need to be sized to deliver contingent capacity and therefore are a more expensive option ($800,000 versus $150,000) compared to a single stage of 11kV Voltage Regulators as proposed. The same development in regard of bussing points and switching stations would still be required. This option remains as a contingency for addressing any new large industrial loads that may arise but are not forecast. Capacity has been reassessed and load forecast allocated across the proposed network segments per the tables below: Table 22 – Reassessment of Feeder Capacity Across Reconfigured Network Network Reconfiguration Strategy and Objectives Create Bussing points to which voltage correction can be applied ‐ increasing capacity. Establish sub‐feeders to segment load into smaller load blocks ‐ creating more interconnection and contingency provisions. Create network configuration to which enhanced protection and DA can be applied ‐ enhance security. Reduce the size of feeders and balance load by shifting open points ‐ reduces sensitivity to outage. Bring N‐1 security into the CBD ‐ Dannevirke South Bus. Page 107 of 193 Table 22 continued – Reassessment of Feeder Capacity Across Reconfigured Network Matamau 11kV Bus with 3MVA 15% Voltage Regulators Incomer North Sub‐Feeder Norsewood Ormandville Otanga Load Allocation Bus Constraint 10% VD Tie 0.5 2.0 Alliance or Okarae Ormandville Norsewood Alliance or Okarae Load Allocation Bus Constraint 10% VD Tie 3.5 Ex North ‐ GXP to Matamau Ex North ‐ Matamau to Norsewood Ex Mangatera ‐ part Ex Weber ‐ part Ex Mangatera ‐ Alliance to Matamau Dannevirke North 11kV Bus 1.2 0.5 0.15 Incomer Mangatera GXP to Smith/Adelaid 0.1 Sub‐Feeder Alliance Alliance plus Umu Ex North ‐ part 1.3 Otanga Sub‐Feeder Ruahine Ex Adelaide ‐ part 0.75 Waterloo Sub‐Feeder Cole Ex Adelaide ‐ part 0.75 Adelaide Load Allocation Dannevirke South 11kV Bus ‐ tri section Sub‐Feeder Demark Ex Central ‐ part 2.32 Incomer 1 Weber Laws ‐ Ex Weber ‐ part 0.03 Sub‐Feeder CSL 1 Ex East ‐ dedicated feeder 0.37 Sub‐Feeder Waterloo Ex East & Central ‐ part 1.13 Incomer 2 Central Sub‐Feeder Okarae Ex Weber ‐ part 0.17 Sub‐Feeder CSL 2 Ex East ‐ dedicated feeder 0.37 Incomer 3 East Sub‐Feeder Easton Bus Constraint 10% VD 8.6 @N‐1 Tie Waterloo or Adelaide Incomers 2 and 3 N‐1 with CSL2 Bus Section 0 8.1 @N‐1 Central or Easton Incomers 1 and 3 Easton or Weber Bus Section 0 Ex East ‐ part 0.78 8.1 @N‐1 N‐1 with CSL1 Incomers 1 and 2 Waterloo or Okarae Page 108 of 193 Table 22 continued – Reassessment of Feeder Capacity Across Reconfigured Network Change to Adelaide Feeder Loading MW Original 2.8 Shift to Cole ‐0.75 Shift to Ruahine ‐0.75 Shift from Central 0.43 New 1.73 Split Weber into 2 Feeders (interconnecting and redeploying into Pacific Feeder) MW Pacific Redeployed as main feeder to Weber 1.32 Weber Less load split to Okarae 0.35 Okarae Split from Weber 0.17 Oringi 11kV Bus ‐ redeploy Works switchboard as network feeders MW Incomer 1 Te Rehunga 0.52 Sub‐Feeder Kiritaki 0.42 Sub‐Feeder Gaisford 0.12 Sub‐Feeder Oringi 0.14 Sub‐Feeder OCS 0.5 Incomer 2 Pacific Branch Te Rehunga Open ‐ redployed for Weber 0.48 10.5.7 Optimised Network Load Forecast Altering the networks configuration resets the baseline forecast by: Relieving assumptions on constraints Relieving security issues Providing more options and flexibility for solving issues going forward Altering the timing for which developments are triggered. the reconfigured network essentially adds another 14 CBs supplying sub-feeders to the 11 GXP feeder CBs. This distributes feeder capacity to a finer resolution relieving the current and short term constraints highlighted in the base forecast. No sub-feeders have constraints over the AMP planning horizon. The bussing points will develop voltage constraints as load grows however this can be managed by adding voltage correction to the network as necessary and standby generation as customised security solutions for larger consumers where the higher degree of interconnection is still unable to deliver sufficient contingent capacity. Page 109 of 193 10.5.8 Security The existing network does not have sufficient contingent capacity to meet security standards (old and new) during peak loading periods. It is a specific issue in the CBD and for larger industrial consumers. It is also an issue for highly loaded residential feeders in Dannevirke but to a lesser degree because the economic impact of outage is lower. The magnitude of this gap, in the amount of contingent capacity needed and duration over which there is a shortfall, continues to grow quickly (inherently twice the pace of load growth). Security to date has not been an issue, firstly because of the low probability of faults on these parts of Scanpower’s network, and secondly, because the there is an even lower probability that they occur during a constraint or peak load period. With growing levels of constraint and longer duration/low diversification of peak load, these probabilities are changing rapidly and therefore have been analysed as to what specific security provisions are necessary to address specific emerging issues. The first priorities are Scanpower’s larger connections. When analysing a specific site it is often determined that full N-1 contingency is not needed for the sites peak load because only a fraction of the peak load is critical to sustaining economic production. Providing security on a global basis from one end of a feeder to the other is very inefficient in this regard. Further, security is not delivered at the point of consumption so a generator supplying the switchboard on site delivers higher security than a second transformer at the GXP which only delivers N-1 security as far as the GXP – to get N-1 security all the way to the installation requires duplicate lines and distribution equipment. N-1 transmission security costs approximately $1500/kW and N-1 distribution security costs approximately $1400/kW, whereas a generator set only costs in the order of $400/kW. It has a higher operating cost but ideally runs for only very limited periods – this cost is comparable, for example, to the magnetising losses of a transformer sitting in standby and the energy sale recovers a significant component of its operating cost. In this regard it is same as investing in duplicate or over capacity distribution equipment – it is a redundant asset that is not required make a return but rather is an insurance that the remaining network assets continue to deliver line function services, earning for Scanpower, and supporting economic production. While a generator set is a viable alternative to a lines solution for security provision and needs no further justification, it has a number of additional benefits: The generation can back-feed into the network and if sized adequately can maintain supply to islands of the network isolated by a fault. Some industrial processes are able to the host the generator and utilise its waste heat. This can increase the efficiency/lower the energy cost to a level that allows the generator to compete with grid supplied energy for peak periods. It provides the consumer with a physical form energy hedge. It can support voltage during periods of constraint. Page 110 of 193 It can be applied to load management. It can be applied to managing transmission constraint and costs. Where there is excess capacity in other energy networks such as gas, it can use the alternative fuel to improve the infrastructure utilisation of both networks. Gas has a lower cost than diesel and so generation is competitive for longer periods. At a strategic level, it contributes to a more diverse business model for Scanpower, and forms a foundation of firm generation capacity to underpin a DG Strategy. This same foundation supports consumer lead initiatives to lower their cost of supply by investing in non-grid solutions such PV panels, solar HW, etc. Accordingly, for the planning period associated with this Plan, Scanpower will be applying generation solutions to secure key installations, and thereby initiate the entry level development of a DG Strategy with the objective avoiding the necessity for transmission and sub-transmission investment in the long term. Scanpower has a preference to own and operate the plant as many of the benefits able to be derived are dependent on Scanpower coordinating the generation with its network load management. It also considers that provision security to a defined standard for the greater community’s good is its obligation. Scanpower is targeting the provisioning security to the following load groups: Key Economic Contributors: - The five largest consumers (all industrial scale producers) plus a factory at Norsewood (9th largest). Generation is sized on the basis of their average kW demand per hour plus an allowance for supporting the local community nearby. Rural Communities: The Weber and Ormondville are the largest and most remote communities not supported by nearby security provisions. These generator sets will be mobile for utilisation at other locations if warranted – for example planned shutdown for line rebuilds. ICPs with CDEM significance: In a Civil Defence Emergency and/or a major storm response, Scanpower, specifically for external work crews involved in the response and the wider community in general, may need fuel supply, food supply, accommodation, and hospitality (cooking) facilities. A selected number of such facilities will be targeted for installation of small generation sets. Scanpower will seek to ensure these generators have the necessary controls and protection to enable them to operate to their capacity within a dynamic DG enabled network. Dairy Sheds: Scanpower has 86 modern sheds with an average demand of 75kW. Dairy sheds have poor diversity – they all milk at the same – and high load factors when they are milking. Accordingly they are a challenge to secure at network level but relatively easy to secure with generators. Loss of supply to a dairy shed can result in animal welfare issues, reduced production and environmental issues. They have different service requirements than the original land use the network was designed to support. Scanpower plans to engineer turnkey solutions and lease generators to these businesses. Page 111 of 193 For the purposes of this, plans forecasting installation of generators covering the first 3 groups has been scheduled in accordance with where they will provide the most benefit in terms of load growth. Other alternatives for reducing demand, such as PV and solar hot water, are in the process of research and development of a commercial model. Specifically Scanpower seeks solutions for improving the demand profiles/energy efficiency of dairy sheds. These alternatives are not developed sufficiently to be committed to as part of the Scanpower network development strategy and so do not form part of the forecast at this time. Table 23 – Summary of Security Strategy for Significant ICPs Security of Individual Top ICP's Objectives and Strategy Secure Key ICP's with hosting merit with firm DG ‐ Lower cost than build contingent capacity. Locate DG where it can provide contingent capacity and voltage support at Bus Points. Utilise to manage peaks for voltage, capacity, Energy Market and transmission cost. Compliment firm DG with a coordinated customised package of renewables and alternatives to reduce capacity constraint (avoid distrubtion upgrades). Size to allow consumption during contingency to be gracefully reduced to baseload. Size and locate to minimise reverse flows on bus points. Facilities that provide emgency provisions (fuel and food) will be assessed for Scanpower supported contingent provisions. Facilities that can provide accommodation and catering for emergency workers. Dairy sheds will be targeted for standby power supplies on commercial terms ‐ dairy load is very peaky and seasonal resulting voltage and capacity constraints can be managed. Where beneficial Scanpower will provide automation and load management services. Limit total Genset application to 20% of GXP peak demand ‐ not economic to base load ‐ but ok for voltage management on peaky feeders. Group 1 ‐ Key Local Economy Contributors Annual kWh Av. kW per h Other kW Genset SHW PV Target Year Dannevirke N Bus ‐ Alliance 4,995,426 570 250 750 50 50 2014 Canterbury Spinners Dannevirke S Bus ‐ CSL 2,984,746 341 400 750 30 30 2014 Oringi Cold Stores Oringi Bus 2,973,438 339 250 500 30 30 2013 # Description Bus 1 Alliance 2 3 Dannevirke GXP ‐ 2,757,442 315 PFC Weber Matamau Bus ‐ 9 Kiwi Sock Company 461,942 53 300 350 5 10 2013 Norsewood Note: These developments are required to meet case by case economic test and sanction for expenditure consequently are not budgeted at this time. 4 Kiwi Lumber Page 112 of 193 Table 23 continued – Summary of Security Strategy for Significant ICPs / Locations Group 2 ‐ Rural Communities/Voltage Support # Description Bus 1 Ormandville Matamau Bus ‐ Ormandville 2 Weber ‐ spur Beyond tie points Annual kWh Av. kW per h Other kW Genset 350 SHW PV 250 Target Year 2013 2015 Group 3 – ICPs with CDEM Significance Annual kWh Av. kW per h Other kW Genset SHW PV Target Year Dannevirke S Bus ‐ Demark 1,017,196 116 100 5 10 2016 High School Dannevirke N Bus ‐ Cole 277,800 32 30 5 10 2016 13 Caltex Westlows Adelaide 271,380 31 30 5 2017 14 BP Dannevirke Dannevirke S Bus ‐ Demark 254,186 29 30 5 2017 18 Caltex Woodville Town 1 225,754 26 30 5 2017 20 Mangatera Hotel Dannevirke N Bus ‐ Ruahine 209,840 24 30 5 5 2016 # Description Bus 6 New World 12 10.5.9 Voltage Support Voltage standards are the main constraint on Scanpower’s network and primarily a function of distance. If the voltage can be supported then the conductor generally has the thermal capacity to supply the load. To a point, voltage support is a lower cost option than installing bigger conductors or upgrading the network voltage standard. There are several options for voltage support: Transpower’s supply transformers are fitted with on load tap changers capable of regulating voltage to +/-15% automatically in 1.25% voltage steps. Scanpower’s distribution transformers are fitted with off-load manual fixed tap changers able to correct voltage by +5% -1.25% which allows for voltage correction of the line regulation. That is, that the Transpower voltage set-point can be set high and the distribution transformers close in to the GXP can be set to buck voltage by up to 1% and those further out boost voltage by up to 5% as they are positioned further out from the GXP. Transpower is not applying the Line Drop Compensation capability of its transformer voltage control systems – this is to be remedied. Even so, Scanpower is at operational limits with which it can utilise this capability. On long lines the line regulation exceeds the capability of the equipment and on feeders with a large variation between peak and base load, load regulation becomes a constraining factor. In short, load levels on Scanpower’s network are now close to the capability of 11kV distribution. Page 113 of 193 Improving PF of the loads connected to the network. Scanpower has two industrial sites where PFC equipment is inadequate and compliance with its 0.95PF standard at lesser installations, such as dairy sheds and pumps, is assessed as poor. The difficulty with enforcing a PF standard is that the consumer pays for the equipment but there is little financial reward/penalty for compliance/non-compliance. If this is neglected then the network must invest to correct PF on a global basis in order to meet Transpower connection standards. Costs of doing so may then be recovered indirectly on an average cost basis – this can be the most cost effective option but is not equitable for all consumers. Scanpower will address these issues with consumers before it invests in feeder level correction. Capacitor banks correct PF on a feeder or line basis. Their normal application is the correction of voltage on feeders that have high seasonal loads such as irrigation or holiday destinations. Long lines suffer from line load regulation, capacitors reduce their impedance. Normally they are switched in and out of service so as not to over correct when load is low. Accordingly they are less suitable for load that varies significantly throughout the day because the switching can cause voltage quality disturbances. They can also absorb ripple signals in parts of the network which is why they haven’t traditionally been used extensively on New Zealand distribution networks. Scanpower has determined that the Ormondville and Norsewood areas would benefit from capacitors located at towards the ends of feeders downstream from the Matamau Voltage Regulators when the voltage drop reaches 5% at the end of line. These will need to be switched to manage dairy season line regulation. Voltage Regulators are an auto-transformer with an on-line tap changer attached. They are used to step the voltage up on long feeders – typically located at approx. 15km from the supply bus where line regulation start exceeds the capability the GXP voltage correction. This type of network configuration is normally only applied to lightly loaded rural lines. Such lines, are normally feeding small single phase loads such as woolsheds and residences. As a consequence, the voltage regulators are often only applied to 2 phases as cost saving measure. Once the loadings get beyond a certain point 3 phase boosting is necessary to keep the system balanced and limit the effects of harmonics created by asymmetrical boosting. Scanpower has relatively few single phase supplies in its rural networks so realising the maximum capacity of its lines requires a well-balanced system – 2 phase boosting is no longer appropriate. Loadings on rural feeders are now exceeding the 1-2MVA capabilities of its regulators. According Scanpower will need to increase the capacity of existing regulators and upgrade them to 3 phase units. These are planned to be upgraded when load exceeds their capacity and additional units added when the voltage drop reaches 10%. They will be located at the bussing points to be established. 10.5.10 Load Forecast for the Preferred Network Development Plan The forecast provided below assumes the network reconfigurations and preferred development strategies discussed above. Its purpose is to demonstrate that: The constraints have been relieved. The level of headroom that will remain in the system. Page 114 of 193 The sensitivities regarding load growth, timing and location. That is, it provides a benchmark against which actual load growth and system performance can be monitored. Page 115 of 193 Table 24 – Revised Load / Capacity Forecast under NDP Conditions Weber Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Genset Voltage Correction Year Ending Load 2012 1.60 3.75 1.67 0.03 2013 1.60 3.75 1.74 0.03 2014 1.60 3.75 1.77 0.03 0.05 2015 1.60 3.75 1.85 0.03 0.05 2016 1.60 3.75 1.68 0.03 1.74 1.77 1.85 1.68 1.71 1.78 1.81 1.84 1.87 1.90 1.96 1.99 2.02 2.05 2.08 Okare (SF) Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 1.60 3.75 0.17 0.03 2013 1.60 3.75 0.24 0.03 2014 1.60 3.75 0.27 0.03 2015 1.60 3.75 0.30 0.03 2016 1.60 3.75 0.33 0.03 2017 1.60 3.75 0.36 0.03 2018 1.60 3.75 0.43 0.03 2019 1.60 3.75 0.46 0.03 2020 1.60 3.75 0.49 0.03 2021 1.60 3.75 0.52 0.03 2022 1.60 3.75 0.55 0.03 2023 1.60 3.75 0.61 0.03 2024 1.60 3.75 0.64 0.03 2025 1.60 3.75 0.67 0.03 2026 1.60 3.75 0.70 0.03 0.24 0.27 0.30 0.33 0.36 0.43 0.46 0.49 0.52 0.55 0.61 0.64 0.67 0.70 0.73 Mangatera Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 1.88 3.75 0.01 0.01 2013 1.88 3.75 0.03 0.01 2014 1.88 3.75 0.08 0.01 2015 1.88 3.75 0.10 0.01 2016 1.88 3.75 0.13 0.01 2017 1.88 3.75 0.15 0.01 2018 1.88 3.75 0.18 0.01 2019 1.88 3.75 0.22 0.01 2020 1.88 3.75 0.25 0.01 2021 1.88 3.75 0.27 0.01 2022 1.88 3.75 0.30 0.01 2023 1.88 3.75 0.32 0.01 2024 1.88 3.75 0.37 0.01 2025 1.88 3.75 0.39 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.10 0.13 0.15 0.18 0.22 0.25 0.27 0.30 0.32 0.37 0.39 0.04 2017 1.60 3.75 1.71 0.03 2018 1.60 3.75 1.78 0.03 2019 1.60 3.75 1.81 0.03 2020 1.60 3.75 1.84 0.03 2021 1.60 3.75 1.87 0.03 0.04 2022 1.60 3.75 1.90 0.03 2023 1.60 3.75 1.96 0.03 2024 1.60 3.75 1.99 0.03 2025 1.60 3.75 2.02 0.03 2026 1.60 3.75 2.05 0.03 2028 1.60 3.75 2.15 0.03 2029 1.60 3.75 2.18 0.03 2030 1.60 3.75 2.21 0.03 2031 1.60 3.75 2.24 0.03 2.15 2.18 2.21 2.24 2.27 2027 1.60 3.75 0.73 0.03 2028 1.60 3.75 0.80 0.03 2029 1.60 3.75 0.83 0.03 2030 1.60 3.75 0.86 0.03 2031 1.60 3.75 0.89 0.03 0.80 0.83 0.86 0.89 0.92 2026 1.88 3.75 0.42 0.01 2027 1.88 3.75 0.44 0.01 2028 1.88 3.75 0.47 0.01 2029 1.88 3.75 0.51 0.01 2030 1.88 3.75 0.54 0.01 2031 1.88 3.75 0.56 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.42 0.44 0.47 0.51 0.54 0.56 0.57 0.04 2027 1.60 3.75 2.08 0.03 0.04 ‐0.25 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 Page 116 of 193 Table 24 continued– Revised Load / Capacity Forecast under NDP Conditions Alliance (SF) Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Genset Voltage Correction Year Ending Load 2012 4.40 4.40 1.30 0.01 0.01 1.32 2013 4.40 4.40 1.32 0.01 0.04 1.37 2014 4.40 4.40 1.37 0.01 0.01 ‐0.75 0.64 2015 4.40 4.40 0.64 0.01 0.02 0.67 2016 4.40 4.40 0.67 0.01 0.01 0.69 2017 4.40 4.40 0.69 0.01 0.02 0.72 2018 4.40 4.40 0.72 0.01 0.03 0.76 2019 4.40 4.40 0.76 0.01 0.02 0.79 2020 4.40 4.40 0.79 0.01 0.01 0.81 2021 4.40 4.40 0.81 0.01 0.02 0.84 2022 4.40 4.40 0.84 0.01 0.01 0.86 2023 4.40 4.40 0.86 0.01 0.04 0.91 2024 4.40 4.40 0.91 0.01 0.01 0.93 2025 4.40 4.40 0.93 0.01 0.02 0.96 2026 4.40 4.40 0.96 0.01 0.01 0.98 2027 4.40 4.40 0.98 0.01 0.02 1.01 2028 4.40 4.40 1.01 0.01 0.03 1.05 2029 4.40 4.40 1.05 0.01 0.02 1.08 2030 4.40 4.40 1.08 0.01 0.01 1.10 2031 4.40 4.40 1.10 0.01 0.00 1.11 Ruahine (SF) Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 4.40 4.40 0.75 0.01 0.76 2013 4.40 4.40 0.76 0.01 0.77 2014 4.40 4.40 0.77 0.01 0.78 2015 4.40 4.40 0.78 0.01 0.79 2016 4.40 4.40 0.79 0.01 0.80 2017 4.40 4.40 0.80 0.01 ‐0.03 0.78 2018 4.40 4.40 0.78 0.01 0.79 2019 4.40 4.40 0.79 0.01 0.80 2020 4.40 4.40 0.80 0.01 0.81 2021 4.40 4.40 0.81 0.01 0.82 2022 4.40 4.40 0.82 0.01 0.83 2023 4.40 4.40 0.83 0.01 0.84 2024 4.40 4.40 0.84 0.01 0.85 2025 4.40 4.40 0.85 0.01 0.86 2026 4.40 4.40 0.86 0.01 0.87 2027 4.40 4.40 0.87 0.01 0.88 2028 4.40 4.40 0.88 0.01 0.89 2029 4.40 4.40 0.89 0.01 0.90 2030 4.40 4.40 0.90 0.01 0.91 2031 4.40 4.40 0.91 0.01 0.92 Cole (SF) Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 4.40 4.40 0.75 0.02 0.77 2013 4.40 4.40 0.77 0.02 0.79 2014 4.40 4.40 0.79 0.02 0.81 2015 4.40 4.40 0.81 0.02 0.83 2016 4.40 4.40 0.83 0.02 ‐0.03 0.82 2017 4.40 4.40 0.82 0.02 0.84 2018 4.40 4.40 0.84 0.02 0.86 2019 4.40 4.40 0.86 0.02 0.88 2020 4.40 4.40 0.88 0.02 0.90 2021 4.40 4.40 0.90 0.02 0.92 2022 4.40 4.40 0.92 0.02 0.94 2023 4.40 4.40 0.94 0.02 0.96 2024 4.40 4.40 0.96 0.02 0.98 2025 4.40 4.40 0.98 0.02 1.00 2026 4.40 4.40 1.00 0.02 1.02 2027 4.40 4.40 1.02 0.02 1.04 2028 4.40 4.40 1.04 0.02 1.06 2029 4.40 4.40 1.06 0.02 1.08 2030 4.40 4.40 1.08 0.02 1.10 2031 4.40 4.40 1.10 0.02 1.12 Page 117 of 193 Table 24 continued– Revised Load / Capacity Forecast under NDP Conditions DVK North Bus Total Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Genset Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 1.88 3.75 2.81 0.05 2013 1.88 3.75 2.88 0.05 2014 1.88 3.75 3.01 0.05 2015 1.88 3.75 2.33 0.05 2016 1.88 3.75 2.42 0.05 2017 1.88 3.75 2.46 0.05 2018 1.88 3.75 2.52 0.05 2019 1.88 3.75 2.63 0.05 2020 1.88 3.75 2.72 0.05 2021 1.88 3.75 2.79 0.05 2022 1.88 3.75 2.88 0.05 2023 1.88 3.75 2.95 0.05 2024 1.88 3.75 3.07 0.05 2025 1.88 3.75 3.15 0.05 2026 1.88 3.75 3.23 0.05 2027 1.88 3.75 3.31 0.05 2028 1.88 3.75 3.39 0.05 2029 1.88 3.75 3.50 0.05 2030 1.88 3.75 3.59 0.05 2031 1.88 3.75 3.66 0.05 0.02 0.08 0.02 ‐0.75 0.04 0.02 ‐0.03 0.04 ‐0.03 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.08 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 2.88 3.01 2.33 2.42 2.46 2.52 2.63 2.72 2.79 2.88 2.95 3.07 3.15 3.23 3.31 3.39 3.50 3.59 3.66 3.71 Denamrk (SF) Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 4.40 4.40 2.32 0.07 2.39 2013 4.40 4.40 2.39 0.07 0.30 2.76 2014 4.40 4.40 2.76 0.07 0.40 3.23 2015 4.40 4.40 3.23 0.07 0.10 3.40 2016 4.40 4.40 3.40 0.07 ‐0.10 3.37 2017 4.40 4.40 3.37 0.07 ‐0.03 3.41 2018 4.40 4.40 3.41 0.07 3.48 2019 4.40 4.40 3.48 0.07 3.55 2020 4.40 4.40 3.55 0.07 3.62 2021 4.40 4.40 3.62 0.07 3.69 2022 4.40 4.40 3.69 0.07 3.76 2023 4.40 4.40 3.76 0.07 3.83 2024 4.40 4.40 3.83 0.07 3.90 2025 4.40 4.40 3.90 0.07 3.97 2026 4.40 4.40 3.97 0.07 4.04 2027 4.40 4.40 4.04 0.07 4.11 2028 4.40 4.40 4.11 0.07 4.18 2029 4.40 4.40 4.18 0.07 4.25 2030 4.40 4.40 4.25 0.07 4.32 2031 4.40 4.40 4.32 0.07 4.39 CSL 1 (SF) Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 4.40 4.40 0.37 0.01 0.38 2013 4.40 4.40 0.38 0.01 0.05 0.44 2014 4.40 4.40 0.44 0.01 0.15 ‐0.375 0.23 2015 4.40 4.40 0.23 0.01 0.15 0.39 2016 4.40 4.40 0.39 0.01 0.40 2017 4.40 4.40 0.40 0.01 0.41 2018 4.40 4.40 0.41 0.01 0.42 2019 4.40 4.40 0.42 0.01 0.43 2020 4.40 4.40 0.43 0.01 0.44 2021 4.40 4.40 0.44 0.01 0.45 2022 4.40 4.40 0.45 0.01 0.46 2023 4.40 4.40 0.46 0.01 0.47 2024 4.40 4.40 0.47 0.01 0.48 2025 4.40 4.40 0.48 0.01 0.49 2026 4.40 4.40 0.49 0.01 0.50 2027 4.40 4.40 0.50 0.01 0.51 2028 4.40 4.40 0.51 0.01 0.52 2029 4.40 4.40 0.52 0.01 0.53 2030 4.40 4.40 0.53 0.01 0.54 2031 4.40 4.40 0.54 0.01 0.55 Page 118 of 193 Table 24 continued– Revised Load / Capacity Forecast under NDP Conditions Waterloo (SF) Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Genset Voltage Correction Year Ending Load 2012 4.40 4.40 1.13 0.02 1.15 2013 4.40 4.40 1.15 0.02 0.10 1.27 2014 4.40 4.40 1.27 0.02 0.10 1.39 2015 4.40 4.40 1.39 0.02 0.10 1.51 2016 4.40 4.40 1.51 0.02 1.53 2017 4.40 4.40 1.53 0.02 1.55 2018 4.40 4.40 1.55 0.02 1.57 2019 4.40 4.40 1.57 0.02 1.59 2020 4.40 4.40 1.59 0.02 1.61 2021 4.40 4.40 1.61 0.02 1.63 2022 4.40 4.40 1.63 0.02 1.65 2023 4.40 4.40 1.65 0.02 1.67 2024 4.40 4.40 1.67 0.02 1.69 2025 4.40 4.40 1.69 0.02 1.71 2026 4.40 4.40 1.71 0.02 1.73 2027 4.40 4.40 1.73 0.02 1.75 2028 4.40 4.40 1.75 0.02 1.77 2029 4.40 4.40 1.77 0.02 1.79 2030 4.40 4.40 1.79 0.02 1.81 2031 4.40 4.40 1.81 0.02 1.83 CSL 2 (SF) Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 4.40 4.40 0.37 0.01 0.38 2013 4.40 4.40 0.38 0.01 0.05 0.44 2014 4.40 4.40 0.44 0.01 0.15 ‐0.375 0.23 2015 4.40 4.40 0.23 0.01 0.15 0.39 2016 4.40 4.40 0.39 0.01 0.40 2017 4.40 4.40 0.40 0.01 0.41 2018 4.40 4.40 0.41 0.01 0.42 2019 4.40 4.40 0.42 0.01 0.43 2020 4.40 4.40 0.43 0.01 0.44 2021 4.40 4.40 0.44 0.01 0.45 2022 4.40 4.40 0.45 0.01 0.46 2023 4.40 4.40 0.46 0.01 0.47 2024 4.40 4.40 0.47 0.01 0.48 2025 4.40 4.40 0.48 0.01 0.49 2026 4.40 4.40 0.49 0.01 0.50 2027 4.40 4.40 0.50 0.01 0.51 2028 4.40 4.40 0.51 0.01 0.52 2029 4.40 4.40 0.52 0.01 0.53 2030 4.40 4.40 0.53 0.01 0.54 2031 4.40 4.40 0.54 0.01 0.55 Easton Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 4.40 4.40 0.78 0.02 0.80 2013 4.40 4.40 0.80 0.02 0.82 2014 4.40 4.40 0.82 0.02 0.84 2015 4.40 4.40 0.84 0.02 0.86 2016 4.40 4.40 0.86 0.02 0.88 2017 4.40 4.40 0.88 0.02 0.90 2018 4.40 4.40 0.90 0.02 0.92 2019 4.40 4.40 0.92 0.02 0.94 2020 4.40 4.40 0.94 0.02 0.96 2021 4.40 4.40 0.96 0.02 0.98 2022 4.40 4.40 0.98 0.02 1.00 2023 4.40 4.40 1.00 0.02 1.02 2024 4.40 4.40 1.02 0.02 1.04 2025 4.40 4.40 1.04 0.02 1.06 2026 4.40 4.40 1.06 0.02 1.08 2027 4.40 4.40 1.08 0.02 1.10 2028 4.40 4.40 1.10 0.02 1.12 2029 4.40 4.40 1.12 0.02 1.14 2030 4.40 4.40 1.14 0.02 1.16 2031 4.40 4.40 1.16 0.02 1.18 Page 119 of 193 Table 24 continued– Revised Load / Capacity Forecast under NDP Conditions DVK South Bus Total Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Genset Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 4.05 8.10 5.14 0.16 2013 4.05 8.10 5.34 0.16 0.50 2014 4.05 8.10 6.00 0.16 0.80 5.34 6.00 6.21 North/Matamau Bus Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 1.00 2.00 0.50 0.01 2013 1.00 2.00 0.55 0.01 0.04 Norsewood (SF) Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Genset Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2015 4.05 8.10 6.21 0.16 0.50 2016 4.05 8.10 6.87 0.16 0.00 2018 4.05 8.10 7.10 0.16 0.00 2019 4.05 8.10 7.26 0.16 0.00 2020 4.05 8.10 7.42 0.16 0.00 2021 4.05 8.10 7.58 0.16 0.00 2022 4.05 8.10 7.74 0.16 0.00 0.04 2023 4.05 8.10 7.93 0.16 0.00 2024 4.05 8.10 8.09 0.16 0.00 2025 4.05 8.10 8.25 0.16 0.00 2026 4.05 8.10 8.41 0.16 0.00 2027 4.05 8.10 8.57 0.16 0.00 0.04 2028 4.05 8.10 8.77 0.16 0.00 2029 4.05 8.10 8.93 0.16 0.00 2030 4.05 8.10 9.09 0.16 0.00 2031 4.05 8.10 9.25 0.16 0.00 ‐0.10 2017 4.05 8.10 6.93 0.16 0.00 0.04 ‐0.03 6.87 6.93 7.10 7.26 7.42 7.58 7.74 7.93 8.09 8.25 8.41 8.57 8.77 8.93 9.09 9.25 9.41 2014 1.00 2.00 0.58 0.01 2015 1.00 2.00 0.67 0.01 2016 1.00 2.00 0.70 0.01 2017 1.00 2.00 0.75 0.01 2018 1.00 2.00 0.78 0.01 2019 1.00 2.00 0.83 0.01 2020 1.00 2.00 0.90 0.01 2021 1.00 2.00 0.94 0.01 2022 1.00 2.00 0.98 0.01 2023 1.00 2.00 1.02 0.01 2024 1.00 2.00 1.06 0.01 2025 1.00 2.00 1.14 0.01 2026 1.00 2.00 1.17 0.01 2027 1.00 2.00 1.22 0.01 2028 1.00 2.00 1.25 0.01 2029 1.00 2.00 1.30 0.01 2030 1.00 2.00 1.37 0.01 2031 1.00 2.00 1.42 0.01 0.02 0.08 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.08 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.55 0.58 0.67 0.70 0.75 0.78 0.83 0.90 0.94 0.98 1.02 1.06 1.14 1.17 1.22 1.25 1.30 1.37 1.42 1.45 2012 1.00 2.00 1.20 0.04 2013 1.00 2.00 1.28 0.04 0.05 0.02 ‐0.35 2014 1.00 2.00 1.04 0.04 0.05 0.08 2015 1.00 2.00 1.21 0.04 0.05 0.02 2016 1.00 2.00 1.32 0.04 2017 1.00 2.00 1.40 0.04 2018 1.00 2.00 1.46 0.04 2019 1.00 2.00 1.54 0.04 2020 1.00 2.00 1.64 0.04 2021 1.00 2.00 1.71 0.04 2022 1.00 2.00 1.78 0.04 2023 1.00 2.00 1.85 0.04 2024 1.00 2.00 1.92 0.04 2025 1.00 2.00 2.03 0.04 2026 1.00 2.00 2.09 0.04 2027 1.00 2.00 2.17 0.04 2028 1.00 2.00 2.23 0.04 2029 1.00 2.00 2.31 0.04 2030 1.00 2.00 2.41 0.04 2031 1.00 2.00 2.49 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.08 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.04 0.02 1.04 1.21 1.32 1.40 1.46 1.54 1.64 1.71 1.78 1.85 1.92 2.03 2.09 2.17 2.23 2.31 2.41 2.49 2.55 0.04 ‐0.75 0.04 1.28 Page 120 of 193 Table 24 continued– Revised Load / Capacity Forecast under NDP Conditions Ormondville (SF) Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Genset Voltage Correction Year Ending Load 2012 1.50 3.00 0.50 0.02 0.02 0.54 2013 1.50 3.00 0.54 0.02 0.08 ‐0.35 0.29 2014 1.50 3.00 0.29 0.02 0.02 0.33 2015 1.50 3.00 0.33 0.02 0.04 0.39 2016 1.50 3.00 0.39 0.02 0.02 0.43 2017 1.50 3.00 0.43 0.02 0.04 0.49 2018 1.50 3.00 0.49 0.02 0.06 0.57 2019 1.50 3.00 0.57 0.02 0.04 0.63 2020 1.50 3.00 0.63 0.02 0.02 0.67 2021 1.50 3.00 0.67 0.02 0.04 0.73 2022 1.50 3.00 0.73 0.02 0.02 0.77 2023 1.50 3.00 0.77 0.02 0.08 0.86 2024 1.50 3.00 0.86 0.02 0.02 0.91 2025 1.50 3.00 0.91 0.02 0.04 0.96 2026 1.50 3.00 0.96 0.02 0.02 1.01 2027 1.50 3.00 1.01 0.02 0.04 1.06 2028 1.50 3.00 1.06 0.02 0.06 1.14 2029 1.50 3.00 1.14 0.02 0.04 1.20 2030 1.50 3.00 1.20 0.02 0.02 1.24 2031 1.50 3.00 1.24 0.02 0.00 1.26 Otanga (SF) Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 1.50 3.00 0.15 0.01 0.01 0.17 2013 1.50 3.00 0.17 0.01 0.04 0.22 2014 1.50 3.00 0.22 0.01 0.01 0.24 2015 1.50 3.00 0.24 0.01 0.02 0.27 2016 1.50 3.00 0.27 0.01 0.01 0.29 2017 1.50 3.00 0.29 0.01 0.02 0.32 2018 1.50 3.00 0.32 0.01 0.03 0.36 2019 1.50 3.00 0.36 0.01 0.02 0.39 2020 1.50 3.00 0.39 0.01 0.01 0.41 2021 1.50 3.00 0.41 0.01 0.02 0.44 2022 1.50 3.00 0.44 0.01 0.01 0.46 2023 1.50 3.00 0.46 0.01 0.04 0.51 2024 1.50 3.00 0.51 0.01 0.01 0.53 2025 1.50 3.00 0.53 0.01 0.02 0.56 2026 1.50 3.00 0.56 0.01 0.01 0.58 2027 1.50 3.00 0.58 0.01 0.02 0.61 2028 1.50 3.00 0.61 0.01 0.03 0.65 2029 1.50 3.00 0.65 0.01 0.02 0.68 2030 1.50 3.00 0.68 0.01 0.01 0.70 2031 1.50 3.00 0.70 0.01 0.00 0.71 2013 1.00 2.00 3.00 2.54 0.01 2014 1.00 2.00 3.00 1.89 0.01 2015 1.00 2.00 3.00 1.91 0.01 2016 1.00 2.00 3.00 1.94 0.01 2017 1.00 2.00 3.00 1.96 0.01 2018 1.00 2.00 3.00 1.99 0.01 2019 1.00 2.00 3.00 2.03 0.01 2020 1.00 2.00 3.00 2.06 0.01 2021 1.00 2.00 3.00 2.08 0.01 2022 1.00 2.00 3.00 2.11 0.01 2023 1.00 2.00 3.00 2.13 0.01 2024 1.00 2.00 3.00 2.17 0.01 2025 1.00 2.00 3.00 2.20 0.01 2026 1.00 2.00 3.00 2.22 0.01 2027 1.00 2.00 3.00 2.25 0.01 2028 1.00 2.00 3.00 2.27 0.01 2029 1.00 2.00 3.00 2.31 0.01 2030 1.00 2.00 3.00 2.34 0.01 2031 1.00 2.00 3.00 2.36 0.01 0.04 ‐0.70 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 1.89 1.91 1.94 1.96 1.99 2.03 2.06 2.08 2.11 2.13 2.17 2.20 2.22 2.25 2.27 2.31 2.34 2.36 2.37 Matamau Bus Total Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Constraint 15%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Genset Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 1.00 2.00 3.00 2.35 0.08 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.00 2.54 Page 121 of 193 Table 24 continued– Revised Load / Capacity Forecast under NDP Conditions Adelaide Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Genset Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 2.10 3.80 1.73 0.05 2013 2.10 3.80 1.78 0.05 2014 2.10 3.80 1.83 0.05 2015 2.10 3.80 1.88 0.05 2016 2.10 3.80 1.93 0.05 1.78 1.83 1.88 1.93 1.98 Te Rehunga Branch Constraint 5%VD Constraint Thermal Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 3.50 4.40 0.48 0.01 2013 3.50 4.40 0.52 0.01 2014 3.50 4.40 0.56 0.01 2015 3.50 4.40 0.60 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.52 0.56 0.60 2017 2.10 3.80 1.98 0.05 2018 2.10 3.80 2.00 0.05 2019 2.10 3.80 2.05 0.05 2020 2.10 3.80 2.10 0.05 2021 2.10 3.80 2.15 0.05 2022 2.10 3.80 2.20 0.05 2023 2.10 3.80 2.25 0.05 2024 2.10 3.80 2.30 0.05 2025 2.10 3.80 2.35 0.05 2026 2.10 3.80 2.40 0.05 2027 2.10 3.80 2.45 0.05 2028 2.10 3.80 2.50 0.05 2029 2.10 3.80 2.55 0.05 2030 2.10 3.80 2.60 0.05 2031 2.10 3.80 2.65 0.05 2.00 2.05 2.10 2.15 2.20 2.25 2.30 2.35 2.40 2.45 2.50 2.55 2.60 2.65 2.70 2016 3.50 4.40 0.66 0.01 2017 3.50 4.40 0.70 0.01 2018 3.50 4.40 0.74 0.01 2019 3.50 4.40 0.78 0.01 2020 3.50 4.40 0.82 0.01 2021 3.50 4.40 0.88 0.01 2022 3.50 4.40 0.92 0.01 2023 3.50 4.40 0.96 0.01 2024 3.50 4.40 1.00 0.01 2025 3.50 4.40 1.04 0.01 2026 3.50 4.40 1.10 0.01 2027 3.50 4.40 1.14 0.01 2028 3.50 4.40 1.18 0.01 2029 3.50 4.40 1.22 0.01 2030 3.50 4.40 1.26 0.01 2031 3.50 4.40 1.32 0.01 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.66 0.70 0.74 0.78 0.82 0.88 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.10 1.14 1.18 1.22 1.26 1.32 1.36 ‐0.03 Te Rehunga/Inc.1 Oringi Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 1.50 3.00 0.52 0.01 2013 1.50 3.00 0.56 0.01 2014 1.50 3.00 0.60 0.01 2015 1.50 3.00 0.64 0.01 2016 1.50 3.00 0.70 0.01 2017 1.50 3.00 0.74 0.01 2018 1.50 3.00 0.78 0.01 2019 1.50 3.00 0.82 0.01 2020 1.50 3.00 0.86 0.01 2021 1.50 3.00 0.92 0.01 2022 1.50 3.00 0.96 0.01 2023 1.50 3.00 1.00 0.01 2024 1.50 3.00 1.04 0.01 2025 1.50 3.00 1.08 0.01 2026 1.50 3.00 1.14 0.01 2027 1.50 3.00 1.18 0.01 2028 1.50 3.00 1.22 0.01 2029 1.50 3.00 1.26 0.01 2030 1.50 3.00 1.30 0.01 2031 1.50 3.00 1.36 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.56 0.60 0.64 0.70 0.74 0.78 0.82 0.86 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.14 1.18 1.22 1.26 1.30 1.36 1.40 Page 122 of 193 Table 24 continued– Revised Load / Capacity Forecast under NDP Conditions Kiritaki Sub‐Feeder Oringi Bus Constraint 5%VD Constraint Thermal Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load Gaisford Sub‐Feeder Oringi Bus Constraint 5%VD Constraint Thermal Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load Oringi Sub‐Feeder Oringi Bus Constraint 5%VD Constraint Thermal Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 3.50 4.40 0.42 0.01 2013 3.50 4.40 0.46 0.01 2014 3.50 4.40 0.50 0.01 2015 3.50 4.40 0.54 0.01 2016 3.50 4.40 0.60 0.01 2017 3.50 4.40 0.64 0.01 2018 3.50 4.40 0.68 0.01 2019 3.50 4.40 0.72 0.01 2020 3.50 4.40 0.76 0.01 2021 3.50 4.40 0.82 0.01 2022 3.50 4.40 0.86 0.01 2023 3.50 4.40 0.90 0.01 2024 3.50 4.40 0.94 0.01 2025 3.50 4.40 0.98 0.01 2026 3.50 4.40 1.04 0.01 2027 3.50 4.40 1.08 0.01 2028 3.50 4.40 1.12 0.01 2029 3.50 4.40 1.16 0.01 2030 3.50 4.40 1.20 0.01 2031 3.50 4.40 1.26 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.46 0.50 0.54 0.60 0.64 0.68 0.72 0.76 0.82 0.86 0.90 0.94 0.98 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.20 1.26 1.30 2012 3.50 4.40 0.12 0.01 2013 3.50 4.40 0.16 0.01 2014 3.50 4.40 0.20 0.01 2015 3.50 4.40 0.24 0.01 2016 3.50 4.40 0.30 0.01 2017 3.50 4.40 0.34 0.01 2018 3.50 4.40 0.38 0.01 2019 3.50 4.40 0.42 0.01 2020 3.50 4.40 0.46 0.01 2021 3.50 4.40 0.52 0.01 2022 3.50 4.40 0.56 0.01 2023 3.50 4.40 0.60 0.01 2024 3.50 4.40 0.64 0.01 2025 3.50 4.40 0.68 0.01 2026 3.50 4.40 0.74 0.01 2027 3.50 4.40 0.78 0.01 2028 3.50 4.40 0.82 0.01 2029 3.50 4.40 0.86 0.01 2030 3.50 4.40 0.90 0.01 2031 3.50 4.40 0.96 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.16 0.20 0.24 0.30 0.34 0.38 0.42 0.46 0.52 0.56 0.60 0.64 0.68 0.74 0.78 0.82 0.86 0.90 0.96 1.00 2012 3.50 4.40 0.14 0.01 2013 3.50 4.40 0.15 0.01 2014 3.50 4.40 0.16 0.01 2015 3.50 4.40 0.17 0.01 2016 3.50 4.40 0.18 0.01 2017 3.50 4.40 0.19 0.01 2018 3.50 4.40 0.20 0.01 2019 3.50 4.40 0.21 0.01 2020 3.50 4.40 0.22 0.01 2021 3.50 4.40 0.23 0.01 2022 3.50 4.40 0.24 0.01 2023 3.50 4.40 0.25 0.01 2024 3.50 4.40 0.26 0.01 2025 3.50 4.40 0.27 0.01 2026 3.50 4.40 0.28 0.01 2027 3.50 4.40 0.29 0.01 2028 3.50 4.40 0.30 0.01 2029 3.50 4.40 0.31 0.01 2030 3.50 4.40 0.32 0.01 2031 3.50 4.40 0.33 0.01 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.34 Page 123 of 193 Table 24 continued– Revised Load / Capacity Forecast under NDP Conditions OCS Sub‐Feeder Oringi Bus Constraint 5%VD Constraint Thermal Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Genset Load Shifted To Year Ending Load Oringi Bus Total Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Genset 2012 1.40 2.80 1.70 0.05 Year Ending Load Town 1 Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Genset Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 3.50 4.40 0.50 0.01 2013 3.50 4.40 0.51 0.01 0.20 2014 3.50 4.40 0.22 0.01 0.05 2015 3.50 4.40 0.28 0.01 0.05 2016 3.50 4.40 0.34 0.01 2017 3.50 4.40 0.35 0.01 2018 3.50 4.40 0.36 0.01 2019 3.50 4.40 0.37 0.01 2020 3.50 4.40 0.38 0.01 2021 3.50 4.40 0.39 0.01 2022 3.50 4.40 0.40 0.01 2023 3.50 4.40 0.41 0.01 2024 3.50 4.40 0.42 0.01 2025 3.50 4.40 0.43 0.01 2026 3.50 4.40 0.44 0.01 2027 3.50 4.40 0.45 0.01 2028 3.50 4.40 0.46 0.01 2029 3.50 4.40 0.47 0.01 2030 3.50 4.40 0.48 0.01 2031 3.50 4.40 0.49 0.01 0.28 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.50 ‐0.50 0.51 0.22 2013 1.40 2.80 1.88 0.10 0.20 ‐0.26 ‐0.50 2014 1.40 2.80 1.72 0.10 0.05 0.09 2015 1.40 2.80 1.91 0.10 0.05 0.15 2016 1.40 2.80 2.16 0.05 2017 1.40 2.80 2.30 0.05 2018 1.40 2.80 2.44 0.05 2019 1.40 2.80 2.58 0.05 2020 1.40 2.80 2.72 0.05 2021 1.40 2.80 2.91 0.05 2022 1.40 2.80 3.05 0.05 2023 1.40 2.80 3.19 0.05 2024 1.40 2.80 3.33 0.05 2025 1.40 2.80 3.47 0.05 2026 1.40 2.80 3.67 0.05 2027 1.40 2.80 3.81 0.05 2028 1.40 2.80 3.95 0.05 2029 1.40 2.80 4.09 0.05 2030 1.40 2.80 4.23 0.05 2031 1.40 2.80 4.43 0.05 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.15 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.15 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.15 0.09 1.84 1.68 1.87 2.12 2.26 2.40 2.54 2.68 2.87 3.01 3.15 3.29 3.43 3.63 3.77 3.91 4.05 4.19 4.39 4.53 2012 2.80 4.40 1.10 0.03 2013 2.80 4.40 1.13 0.03 2014 2.80 4.40 1.16 0.03 2015 2.80 4.40 1.19 0.03 2016 2.80 4.40 1.22 0.03 2017 2.80 4.40 1.25 0.03 2018 2.80 4.40 1.25 0.03 2019 2.80 4.40 1.28 0.03 2020 2.80 4.40 1.31 0.03 2021 2.80 4.40 1.34 0.03 2022 2.80 4.40 1.37 0.03 2023 2.80 4.40 1.40 0.03 2024 2.80 4.40 1.43 0.03 2025 2.80 4.40 1.46 0.03 2026 2.80 4.40 1.49 0.03 2027 2.80 4.40 1.52 0.03 2028 2.80 4.40 1.55 0.03 2029 2.80 4.40 1.58 0.03 2030 2.80 4.40 1.61 0.03 2031 2.80 4.40 1.64 0.03 1.28 1.31 1.34 1.37 1.40 1.43 1.46 1.49 1.52 1.55 1.58 1.61 1.64 1.67 0.09 ‐0.03 1.13 1.16 1.19 1.22 1.25 1.25 Page 124 of 193 Table 24 continued– Revised Load / Capacity Forecast under NDP Conditions Country Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 2.80 4.40 0.90 0.03 2013 2.80 4.40 1.01 0.03 2014 2.80 4.40 1.11 0.03 2015 2.80 4.40 1.22 0.03 2016 2.80 4.40 1.32 0.03 2017 2.80 4.40 1.50 0.03 2018 2.80 4.40 1.61 0.03 2019 2.80 4.40 1.71 0.03 2020 2.80 4.40 1.82 0.03 2021 2.80 4.40 1.92 0.03 2022 2.80 4.40 2.03 0.03 2023 2.80 4.40 2.13 0.03 2024 2.80 4.40 2.24 0.03 2025 2.80 4.40 2.34 0.03 2026 2.80 4.40 2.45 0.03 2027 2.80 4.40 2.55 0.03 2028 2.80 4.40 2.66 0.03 2029 2.80 4.40 2.76 0.03 2030 2.80 4.40 2.87 0.03 2031 2.80 4.40 2.97 0.03 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.15 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 1.01 1.11 1.22 1.32 1.50 1.61 1.71 1.82 1.92 2.03 2.13 2.24 2.34 2.45 2.55 2.66 2.76 2.87 2.97 3.08 Town 2 Constraint 5%VD Constraint 10%VD Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 2.80 4.40 1.10 0.03 2013 2.80 4.40 1.13 0.03 2014 2.80 4.40 1.16 0.03 2015 2.80 4.40 1.19 0.03 2016 2.80 4.40 1.22 0.03 2017 2.80 4.40 1.25 0.03 2018 2.80 4.40 1.28 0.03 2019 2.80 4.40 1.31 0.03 2020 2.80 4.40 1.34 0.03 2021 2.80 4.40 1.37 0.03 2022 2.80 4.40 1.40 0.03 2023 2.80 4.40 1.43 0.03 2024 2.80 4.40 1.46 0.03 2025 2.80 4.40 1.49 0.03 2026 2.80 4.40 1.52 0.03 2027 2.80 4.40 1.55 0.03 2028 2.80 4.40 1.58 0.03 2029 2.80 4.40 1.61 0.03 2030 2.80 4.40 1.64 0.03 2031 2.80 4.40 1.67 0.03 1.13 1.16 1.19 1.22 1.25 1.28 1.31 1.34 1.37 1.40 1.43 1.46 1.49 1.52 1.55 1.58 1.61 1.64 1.67 1.70 Total (Diversified) Constraint N‐1 Year Starting Load Base Load Growth Development Dairy/Irrigation Load Shifted From Load Shifted To Year Ending Load 2012 10.00 2.80 0.09 2013 10.00 2.97 0.09 2014 10.00 3.13 0.09 2015 10.00 3.30 0.09 2016 10.00 3.46 0.09 2017 10.00 3.70 0.09 2018 10.00 3.87 0.09 2019 10.00 4.03 0.09 2020 10.00 4.20 0.09 2021 10.00 4.36 0.09 2022 10.00 4.53 0.09 2023 10.00 4.69 0.09 2024 10.00 4.86 0.09 2025 10.00 5.02 0.09 2026 10.00 5.19 0.09 2027 10.00 5.35 0.09 2028 10.00 5.52 0.09 2029 10.00 5.68 0.09 2030 10.00 5.85 0.09 2031 10.00 6.01 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.15 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 2.97 3.13 3.30 3.46 3.70 3.87 4.03 4.20 4.36 4.53 4.69 4.86 5.02 5.19 5.35 5.52 5.68 5.85 6.01 6.18 Page 125 of 193 10.6 Automation and Protection Development Plan 10.6.1 Automation Gap Analysis Analysis of Scanpower’s Fault Cause statistics (refer section 12) indicate that 15 SAIDI minutes p.a. (26%) of fault outage results from transient or unknown causes. This is attributed to: Automation and protection systems not working effectively and reliably. This is a combination of issues around application of the right technology, implemented correctly, and adequately maintained in an operational state. Network configuration, load and distance issues. These are systems engineering issues. Without a sub-transmission system Scanpower has substantially less sectionalising and automation density. Retention of an older group fusing approach to protection negating the benefits of the newer automated sectionalising and reclosing approach. The strategy of shifting to new best practice has therefore only been partially completed as confidence in the current automation is not high. It has been determined that the systems engineering with regard to the selection and application of technology is not optimal and therefore is to be addressed by redeploying existing equipment and developing the protection and automation systems with the addition of new technology options that were not available previously. This has been specifically targeted at the North, Mangatera, and Weber feeders which show the greatest need, and will deliver the greatest potential benefits in terms of reduced SAIDI. The Country feeder would also deliver some benefit from improved technology deployment; however this is to be preceded by an investigation into improved interconnection and network re-configuration in the Kumeroa area. Comparison between feeders statistics on load density within network segments and with other benchmarked networks of similar characteristics has been made to determine targets for an appropriate level of automation. This is detailed below: Page 126 of 193 Table 25 – Feeder Statistics and Technical Comparison GXP Dannevirke Woodville Feeder Weber Mangatera Central Pacific East North Adelaide Feeder Statistics MW kWh (excl. ICP's>1GWh) ICP's km km % of System 2.2 10,209,548 853 262 31% 2 10,005,209 612 132 16% 1.8 7,444,624 1151 13 2% 1.8 6,569,411 216 61 7% 3.8 16,775,955 735 11 1% 1.7 7,648,866 559 127 15% 339 9,729 29 2.52 1.29 203 6,721 33 3.01 1.54 37 6,675 180 31.11 2.85 111 9,750 88 1.95 1.82 26 5,335 205 28.27 2.36 3.26 11,969 38,968 4.64 16,348 75,797 88.54 6,468 572,663 3.54 30,414 107,695 1 1 3 6 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 13 20 26 66 7 19 29 87 No. of Transformers Connected Tfmr Capacity Average Tfmr Size No. of ICP's/Tfmr No. of Tfmr/km Impact Indicators ICP/km (Connection Density) kWh/ICP kWh/km (Load Density) Automation Equipment TPNZ Indoor CB Nulec Recloser Cooper Recloser Peanut Sectionalizer Automated ABS Isolator Automated ABS Tie Potential No. of Auto‐sections Section km Transformers/ section ICP/section Te Rehunga Town No.1 2.6 10,279,778 892 17 2% 1.1 5,749,357 295 62 7% 1.1 6,352,069 546 34 4% 223 6,350 28 2.51 1.76 46 4,630 101 19.39 2.71 118 3,648 31 2.50 1.90 66.82 22,824 1,525,087 4.40 13,683 60,227 52.47 11,524 604,693 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 4 Scanpower Waitaki Centralines 0.9 5,145,702 422 96 11% 1.2 3,866,062 428 26 3% 20.2 90,046,581 6709 841 51 240,000,000 12257 1346 25 118,000,000 8245 1397 75 3,795 51 7.28 2.21 156 4,785 31 2.71 1.63 43 2,505 58 9.95 1.65 1,377 63,923 46 4.87 1.64 2,569 173,000 67 4.77 1.91 2,245 93,000 41 3.67 1.61 4.76 19,489 92,732 16.06 11,634 186,826 4.40 12,194 53,601 16.46 9,033 148,695 7.98 13,422 107,071 9.11 19,581 178,306 5.90 14,312 84,467 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 4 10 7 7 6 59 43 0 0 33 39 22 35 172 102 13 25 120 131 11 17 63 1 2 1 13 37 1151 2 31 56 108 1 11 26 735 5 25 45 112 1 17 46 892 Benchmarks Town No.2 1 Country Total 2 31 59 148 1 34 75 546 4 24 39 106 2 13 22 214 33 33 32 Page 127 of 193 Table 25 continued – Feeder Statistics and Technical Comparison GXP Feeder Dannevirke Mangatera Central Pacific East North Adelaide Total Country Scanpowe r Town No.2 Benchmarks Te Rehunga Town No.1 Fused sections Fused section km Transformers/Fused section ICP/Fused section ABS Tie/Bypass ABS Manual Sections (incl. Fused) Manual section km Transformers/manual section ICP/Manual section Spurs 51 5 7 17 12 63 4 5 14 27 34 4 6 18 11 45 3 5 14 21 9 1 4 128 10 19 1 2 61 2 10 6 11 22 11 21 3 5 10 7 1 11 26 735 9 10 1 3 74 2 28 5 8 20 12 40 3 6 14 23 8 2 6 112 10 18 1 3 50 5 13 5 9 23 6 19 3 6 16 11 11 3 7 50 4 15 2 5 36 8 24 4 7 18 4 28 3 6 15 19 5 5 9 86 7 12 2 4 36 3 194 4 7 35 96 57 290 3 5 23 128 427 427 3 5 19 Target Auto Isolation for 12km 22 11 1 5 1 11 1 5 3 8 2 70 TPNZ Indoor CB Nulec Recloser Cooper Recloser Peanut Sectionalizer Automated ABS Isolator Automated ABS Tie Existing 1 2 4 6 7 2 22 0 13 9 1 1 2 2 3 2 11 0 8 3 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 2 5 0 2 3 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 3 3 2 11 0 5 6 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 2 5 0 2 3 1 2 3 0 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 1 8 0 4 4 1 1 2 0 2 0 11 5 11 12 18 13 70 39 31 59 43 0 0 33 33 33 32 Weber Woodville Waitaki Centralines Page 128 of 193 Table 25 continued – Feeder Statistics and Technical Comparison GXP Dannevirke Feeder Weber Automation Equipment per NDP TPNZ Indoor CB Scanpower Indoor CB Nulec Recloser Cooper Recloser Peanut LSB Fuse Saver Automated ABS Isolator Automated ABS Tie Mangatera 1 1 3 6 2 2 1 1 2 3 4 Central Pacific 1 East 1 1 North 1 Adelaide 1 1 1 2 Te Rehunga Town No.1 1 1 1 1 Woodville Total Country Scanpowe r Town No.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 Benchmarks Waitaki 11 4 10 7 7 6 Centralines Page 129 of 193 10.6.2 Automation Strategy In re-engineering the automation scheme the following strategies have been applied to address the above issues: The open points between feeders have been shifted to balance feeders with regard to the number of km of network that collect faults and the number of connections that are therefore exposed to those faults. This is constrained by the network configuration and capacity but the main focus has been to reduce the size of the Weber feeder by shifting segments onto the East and Mangatera feeders. Reducing the km of network between key segments (isolation points). This reduces the area automatically isolated by protection equipment during faults. Remotely controlled equipment is able to be operated to further reduce the isolated area and/or provide back-feeds while repair crews mobilise. Scanpower needs to increase the number of segments from approx. 40 to 70 to match the automation density of its benchmark networks (12km auto-isolating sections). Scanpower’s network inherently has fewer segments because the number of 11kV feeders is fewer (with no sub-transmission) and therefore the number of km and ICPs within each segment is larger. Reducing the number of reclosing/sectionalising protection devices deployed in series along the main line to a maximum of 2-3 down-stream from the Transpower CB i.e. eliminate cascading of protection schemes where the failure of one scheme cascades into the next. Sectionalisers have essentially been positioned at the branches downstream from a main line recloser such that there are no reclosers downstream of sectionalisers. The feeders are so long that upstream devices have difficulty seeing end of system faults and therefore failure to perform effectively as backup protection. Automated ABSs have been placed midway between reclosers/sectionalisers in the automatically isolated faulty segment to allow that segment to be further halved by remote control while faultmen travel to site. Accordingly this equipment has been shifted further out on the network where it can deliver the biggest improvement in response time. Replace fusing with fault indicators at key patrolling decision points and fault make/load break rated ABSs able to be operated from the ground by non-linemen if necessary. Branch and group fusing will be eliminated once sufficient alternative technology is deployed. HV fusing will therefore be retrenched to the transformer fuses. Scanpower is currently using DDO fusing as is main isolating device. These being pole top equipment, needs to be operated by lineman from a bucket truck (in the case of a wooden pole), and are not 3 phase load break/fault make devices. This results in a more time consuming, resource constrained, labourious switching process. Scanpower only has 158 ABSs and even fewer of these are rated for live working. The density of this equipment is about one fifth of the benchmark networks resulting in much larger segments for fault isolation and maintenance shutdowns. A programme will be Page 130 of 193 developed to upgrade existing ABSs and improve their density over a 10 year period. In the interim the DDO fuses will be replaced by solid links where defusing is desirable. 10.6.3 Other Issues Some of the existing equipment is proving unreliable and this will need to be resolved before it is redeployed. The Electropar automated ABSs are unreliable. This makes the fault response more difficult and is actually worse than a manually operated alternative. If the manufacturer is unable to resolve the problem they will need to be replaced with an alternative product. The Cooper Reclosers are not providing the desired amount of information via the SCADA. Specifically current readings that the SCADA can log are desirable. Transpower owns/operates the CBs that Scanpower’s protection scheme relies on as the primary reclosing device. They won’t allow the standard industry practice for fault finding of reclosing onto potential faults. The Peanut sectionalisers are prone to getting out of sequence. This is thought to be an issue with the fault indicator being armed inappropriately during periods of very low load i.e. they are being operated outside their capability. Reconfiguration may allow more coarse protection to be applied. Smart metering may provide an alternative to fault indicators. ABSs are not fault make load break rated for live operating and their handles are not always operable from the ground. This is a safe operating practice and quality of solution issue. It restricts the number of staff able undertake field operating. An investigation into rating is required to determine an improvement plan. 10.6.4 Solution Options This plan only addresses the Weber, Mangatera, and North feeders which are the 3 most highly represented feeders in the particular outage statistic being targeted. The Country feeder also has some scope for improvement but this will be addressed separately when interconnection with the Pacific feeder is investigated. To constrain cost the initial scope is limited to reconfiguration of the network, relocation of existing equipment into more effective locations, and the addition of new equipment required to coordinate the re-engineered scheme. To match the 12km benchmark of other network for auto-isolation will require additional investment beyond this proposal. In this scenario: The Weber feeder would require 22 sections. It currently has 13 sections and it is proposed to reconfigure it to 17 sections. The proposal to split Weber into two feeders will create further segmentation. Page 131 of 193 The Mangatera feeder would require 11 sections. It currently has 8 sections and this will remain unchanged. However Voltage Regulators are being upgraded at Matamau and this will further split this feeder into a number of sub-feeder circuits resulting in 22 segments with greater interconnection capability. The North feeder would require 11 sections. It currently has 5 sections and it is also proposed to reconfigure it into multiple sub-feeders creating 16 sections. Initially two options were investigated in detail: The first selected ABS switches paired with Fault Indicators on spurs which were not automated (cost prohibitive) and sectionalisers and/or reclosers on the main line. This would then allow the network to be de-fused – this is most common strategy applied by other networks over the past 20 years. However, the market lacks products that are cost effective for Scanpower’s scale/load density - specifically full blown reclosers are offered instead of a lower cost sectionaliser option, fault indicators have become very expensive now that they are configured for remote communications, and Scanpower has a legacy of using DDO Isolators instead of ABSs so it cannot deploy existing equipment and de-fusing becomes an issue for operability. The second option considered the KAON Fuse Saver which is a ‘new to market’ technology. It is effectively a single shot sectionaliser that operates in series with branch fusing. Consequently it will automatically clear transient faults that would otherwise blow fusing. It therefore works with existing equipment and provides automatic sectionalising capability at lower cost than reclosers making it a better fit to Scanpower’s network. It also logs fault indication data and has a remote communications upgrade path. The ABS/Fault Indicator option has been excluded not only on long term cost grounds but also because it lacks scalability for more intensive automation application in the future. Following an investigation into protection coordination across the Weber feeder to prove the concept, the Fuse Saver option has been selected. It is planned to install the first 10 sets on the Weber feeder in 2013. This plan has been coordinated with the proposals in the wider Network Development Plan to develop a number of 11kV bus points/switchboards supplying sub-feeders at 4 strategic locations within the Scanpower network which increases network segmentation and improves the interconnection (and potential for automation). This proposal is intended to improve the contingent capacity and voltage levels on the network, whereas the automation and protection project specifically targets improved SAIDI. It is also unclear at this time whether Scanpower is best to invest in more distribution automation equipment (reclosers, sectionalisers, etc.) in the medium term or remotely controlled switchgear which is lower cost but could be overlaid in the future with a Distribution Management System (Smarts on the SCADA platform as opposed to in field devices). This approach would be greatly enabled by smart grid application of the Advanced Metering Infrastructures (AMI – smart meters) that will be deployed over the next 3-5 years. Scanpower will develop a more comprehensive Distribution Automation strategy once AMI solutions have been committed to in its region. Page 132 of 193 The tables below detail the changes proposed. The total capital cost of approximately $350,000 is spread over 3 years (3 feeders) when incorporated into the Network Development Plan. As approximately one third of the cost is relocating existing plant this component could be allocated as an operational expense funded from operational savings expected over the long term. The NDP signals some provisional budget to extend this project to other feeders but as stated above detailed planning has not been completed for this at this time. Table 26 – Fuse Saver Deployment Summary (North Feeder) Automation Development Plan deploying Fuse Savers North Feeder Notes Estimated Cost New Equip Fuse Saver Reloc. Shift Tie point with Mangatera to ABS84 ‐ Automate ABS84 Ex A82 $5,000 $5,000 Redploy P77 Top Grass/Umutoaroa ‐ as Auto LBS Ex P77 $5,000 $5,000 Ex C927 $5,000 $5,000 new $8,500 $8,500 Replace Recloser C913 with Recloser Ex N915 $5,000 $5,000 Replace F528 with Recloser and ABS Ex N920 $5,000 $5,000 new $4,500 $4,500 $300 $300 Install Recloser at ABS 128 Umutoaroa Add Fuse Saver to F529 Replace F419 with ABS Remove F318 ‐ shift jumpers downstream of F529 Replace L324 with ABS new $4,500 $4,500 Install new ABS midway Top Grass new $5,500 $5,500 Add Fuse Saver to F508 new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F377 new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F376 new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F351 new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F308 new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F309 new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F304 new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F319 new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F493 new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F523 new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F491 new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F493 new $8,500 $8,500 $2,000 $2,000 $152,300 $14,500 $110,500 $27,300 Check Fuse Grading TOTAL NORTH FEEDER BUDGET Page 133 of 193 Table 27 – Fuse Saver Deployment Summary (Mangatera Feeder) Automation Development Plan deploying Fuse Savers Mangatera Feeder Notes Estimated Cost New Equip Fuse Saver Reloc. $5,500 $5,500 $8,500 $8,500 $11,700 $11,700 Ex A140 $5,000 $5,000 Add Fuse Saver to F301 new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F484 new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F328 new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F3484 new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F339 new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F329 new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F332 new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F498 new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F345 new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F370 new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F531 new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F532 new $8,500 $8,500 Shift Tie with North ‐ replace A82 with ABS/FI new Shift Tie point with Weber from A3 to A123 existing Add Fuse Saver to F352 new Remove Recloser C916 Redeployed Replace F306 with Peanut LBS new Shift tie pt with Weber Remove ABS108, replace F533 with Auto ABS Check Fuse Grading $2,000 $2,000 TOTAL MANGATERA FEEDER BUDGET $134,700 $17,200 $110,500 $7,000 Page 134 of 193 Table 28 – Fuse Saver Deployment Summary (Weber Feeder) Automation Development Plan deploying Fuse Savers Weber Feeder Shift open point betwwen 2 main branches Open A121 close A169 Notes Estimated Cost New Equip Fuse Saver Reloc. $1,000 $1,000 $5,000 $5,000 Shift branch 1 to DVK S Bus ‐ open ABS192 Disconnect Tipapakuku at F387 jumper to Cowper Rd Install Recloser at Tipapakuku ‐ Stage 2 Ex C913 Remove N920 ‐ Stage 2 redeployed Replace Recloser C921 with Recloser N920 redep./ex N924 $5,000 $5,000 Add Fuse Saver to F385 ‐ after trial new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F526 ‐ after trial new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F364 new $8,500 $8,500 Replace Sectionaliser P157 with Recloser redep/ex C914 $5,000 $5,000 Add Fuse Saver to F359 new $8,500 $8,500 Replace F356 with Auto LBS Ex A19 $5,000 $5,000 Remove Sectionalisr P177 redeployed Replace recloser C914 with Peanut LBS ex P177 $5,000 $5,000 Add Fuse Saver to F396 new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F403 new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F408 Replace Sectionaliser P77 with new Fuses and Fuse Saver new $8,500 $8,500 $8,500 $8,500 Replace F380 with Peanut LBS Ex P157 $5,000 $5,000 Add Fuse Saver to F393 new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F392 new $8,500 $8,500 Add Fuse Saver to F423 ‐ Stage 2 Add Fuse Saver to Aerodrome Rd Stage 2 new $8,500 $8,500 $8,500 $8,500 Check Fuse Grading $4,000 $4,000 TOTAL WEBER FEEDER BUDGET $137,000 $0 $102,000 $35,000 redep. /new new 10.6.5 Justification This is essentially a reliability project. The benefits are primarily reduced SAIDI and reduced fault response costs. The industry approach to determining the value improved reliability is to assess the economic cost to consumers/businesses having their supply interrupted – electricity is essentially an input to economic production – depriving the economy of supply has an economic cost. This is known as the Value of Lost Load (VoLL or unserved energy) and the figure that is applied by the Electricity Authority to the Grid Investment Test for Transpowers Grid Upgrade Plans is $20/kWh of lost load. Page 135 of 193 This figure was determined for the Electricity Authority by a Centre of Advanced Engineering survey of consumer’s direct losses across the Residential, Commercial, Agricultural and Industrial Sectors. A model for its determination has calibrated with real events and benchmarked with international determinations. CAE undertook a further study that adapted this model to determine VoLL for the Otago Region. By assuming Tararua has a similar sector weighting and risk exposure and by selecting the outage performance of a line company comparable with Scanpower, a VoLL for Scanpower of $13/kWh lost has been determined. It is assumed that the above plan will deliver a 10.6 minute drop in SAIDI from the 14.6 minutes of SAIDI lost to transient faults targeted by this project. With a total annual consumption of 88GWh p.a. Scanpower’s system consumption per minute is 167kWh/min. Therefore, 10.6 SAIDI minutes represents a VoLL of $23,012 p.a. The savings in planned outage time associated with smaller isolation segments and ease of operating. This is a saving in the order of $6,000p.a. in terms of VoLL. Savings in fault response costs in the order of 11% p.a. ($11,000 of the non-fixed costs). This justifies the maintenance expenditure proposed. It is concluded that project benefits will payback project costs within a 10-20 year period. The assets are expected to deliver a 25 - 35 year service life and therefore the proposal will add value to Scanpower and the consumers it serves. Page 136 of 193 10.7 Network Development Plan Budget and Forecast Expenditure Table 29 – Network Development Plan Budget and Forecast Expenditure NDP Project Description Network Development Matamau Substation Development Dannevirke South Substation Development Dannevirke North Substation ‐ land Dannevirke North Substation Development Oringi Substation ‐ Design Oringi Substation ‐ Refurbish Switchboard Oringi Substation ‐ Controls Oringi Substation ‐ Develop feeders Line Upgrades Matamau Substation ‐ feeder devel. Dannevirke South Substation ‐ feeder devel. Dannevirke North Substation ‐ feeder devel. Norsewood A81 to ABS184 Weber Pacific Interconnection Kumuroa Interconnection Automation and Protection (capex only) Protection Reconfiguration ‐ Weber (incl. temp. Recloser) Protection Reconfiguration ‐ North ‐ Equipment Protection Reconfiguration ‐ North ‐ Fuse Savers Protection Reconfiguration ‐ Mangatera ‐ Equipment Protection Reconfiguration ‐ Mangatera ‐ Fuse Savers Protection Reconfiguration ‐ Country ‐ Equipment Protection Reconfiguration ‐ Country ‐ Fuse Savers Protection Reconfiguration ‐ Te Rehunga ‐ Equipment Protection Reconfiguration ‐ Te Rehunga ‐ Fuse Savers 2013 $490,350 $215,250 $537,750 $19,000 $34,356 $190,050 $113,200 $14,500 $34,000 $30,000 $160,000 $42,500 $17,200 $34,000 2016 2015 $96,000 $46,000 $115,000 $30,000 2014 2017 $77,500 $34,000 $42,500 $34,000 $17,200 $42,500 $45,000 $42,500 $17,200 $17,000 2020 $45,000 2019 $390,000 2018 2021 2022 Page 137 of 193 Table 29 continued – Network Development Plan Budget and Forecast Expenditure NDP Project Description Auto LBS ‐ replacement ABS Upgrades Kumuroa Interconnection NDP Project Description Smart Grid Metering ‐ Distribution Subs 156 @16p.a. Feeder Voltage profiling (100 @ 10p.a.) RF Mesh (3 Access Pt's +12 Relays) DMR Backhaul 3 links RF Mesh Design Voltage Correction Load Flow Analysis Capacitor Bank ‐ Norsewood Capacitor Bank ‐ Ormandville PFC OCS Weber Voltage Reg. 2MVA (ex Matamau) Oringi Voltage Reg. 5MVA Network Development Projects Total 2013 $21,000 $5,250 2014 $21,000 $5,250 2013 2014 $14,480 $4,000 10,000 $75,000 2015 $21,000 $5,250 2015 $14,480 $4,000 $7,000 $30,000 $75,000 $30,000 $30,000 $1,243,449 $869,194 $592,245 2017 $21,000 $5,250 2018 $21,000 $5,250 2018 2016 $14,480 $4,000 $7,000 $15,000 $20,000 2016 $21,000 $5,250 2017 $14,480 $4,000 $7,000 $15,000 $14,480 $4,000 $314,946 $515,947 2019 $21,000 $5,250 2019 $14,480 $4,000 $89,248 2020 $21,000 $5,250 2020 $14,480 $4,000 $46,749 $14,480 $4,000 $46,750 2021 $21,000 $5,250 2022 $5,250 2021 2022 $14,480 $4,000 $85,000 $131,751 $14,480 $4,000 $25,752 Page 138 of 193 11. LIFE CYCLE MANAGEMENT 11.1 Summary of Life Cycle Management Scanpower does not have a significant population of any specific category of asset that is considered critical in terms its primary service delivery objectives – keeping the lights on. The bulk of its asset is an 11kV/400V pole mounted electricity distribution network. The age and condition related replacement of hardwood poles in this network is the primary focus of Scanpower’s life cycle management activity. This plan has improved the targeting of replacements on assets and network segments where condition is driving performance. Analysis indicates that more attention/pace is warranted on the LV network which has passed the optimal point for renewal (but does not affect regulatory performance benchmarking). The transformer population is approaching its optimal service life and because it is relatively expensive to renew, it will be pre-emptively replaced via opportunistic renewal policies as part of other work programmes in order the spread replacement over a wider time period. Service line condition and the need for its replacement, is an issue that affects Scanpower’s costs but is not an asset it owns. The industry is still in the process of determining how it will respond to this issue. Tree management is currently a significant non-asset but performance driving issue currently on Scanpower’s network. Forestry outside the regulatory clearances is the main contributor. Scanpower has established major resourcing capacity to address these issues. Tree trimming funded by the network is a major component of life cycle costs and this will continue for several cycles until cost responsibility has been transferred to tree owners. 11.2 Introduction to Life Cycle Management In terms of PAS55, life cycle management refers to the cyclical asset management process of: 1. 2. 3. 4. Design/Build/Acquire Operate Inspect/Maintain/Repair Renew/Replace/Dispose such that the cost and performance is optimised over the entire life cycle relative to the business objectives. It is the system performance that matters in terms of business objectives. Electricity distribution assets have long service lives and form part of a system. Individual assets can become technically obsolete, capacity constrained, business objectives may change, etc. such that these considerations require them to be replaced well before their serviceability dictates. Page 139 of 193 11.3 Asset Information by Category 11.3.1 Asset Values by Category Information disclosure regulations prescribe the asset categories Scanpower must apply in this Plan. The categories relevant to Scanpower are: 11kV Network LV Network Transformers Switchgear Secondary Assets The following table provides information on the size of the financial asset Scanpower has in each of these categories plus some additional detail of sub-asset categories Scanpower has assigned to the prescribed asset categories. Clearly evident from this information is that Scanpower’s assets are predominantly an overhead/pole mounted 11kV/400V distribution system in a relatively mature steady state. Table 30 – Asset Values by Category ASSET TYPE 11kV Lines 11kV Cables 11kV System LV Lines, Cables and Dist. Equipment Service Laterals and Fusing LV System Transformers ‐ Pole Mounted Transformers ‐ Ground Mounted Distribution Subs Transformer Fuses Voltage Regulators Distribution Transformers Air Break Switches Isolating Fuses Circuit Breakers Reclosers Sectionalisers Ring Main Units Distribution Switchgear TOTAL Secondary Assets GRAND TOTAL DRC AT 1 APRIL 2012 RC AT 1 APRIL 2013 % RC % Life Remaining $12,691,827 $953,528 $13,645,355 $4,870,689 $1,086,455 $5,957,145 $1,176,952 $3,069,207 $413,008 $605,965 $109,912 $5,375,045 $374,791 $86,343 $54,489 $258,852 $101,462 $92,741 $968,677 $25,946,222 $2,599,882 $28,546,104 $22,297,073 $1,220,825 $23,517,898 $8,611,230 $3,317,807 $11,929,036 $2,148,588 $6,585,022 $1,946,132 $1,301,427 $166,381 $12,147,549 $705,341 $221,019 $222,910 $356,218 $124,398 $125,044 $1,754,930 $49,349,412 $2,599,882 $51,949,294 43% 2% 45% 17% 6% 23% 4% 13% 4% 3% 0% 23% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 3% 5% 43% 22% 42% 43% 67% 50% 45% 53% 79% 53% 34% 56% 47% 61% 76% 27% 18% 26% 45% Page 140 of 193 Scanpower has no sub-transmission system and therefore no zone substations (or HV switchboards/CB panels) – it takes supply directly from Transpower at 11kV which is its only distribution (high) voltage. Its LV reticulation is limited in its interconnection, that is it makes limited contribution to the systems engineering of the network. Scanpower does not own service lines (HV or LV) but operates HV service asset largely as if it did own it. Its operational scope includes the asset management of ancillary assets such as street light networks and it shares assets of other utilities such as Telecom. Consequently there are limitations on how accurately Scanpower’s asset categories and associated cost/performance information fits the prescribed disclosure model. 11.3.2 Description and Quantity of Assets by Type The following tables summarise the quantity of network asset by category, and further by ODV Handbook description. Table 31 – Asset Quantity by Asset Category and ODV Handbook Description Asset Category – 11kV Distribution Lines / Cables Length (KM) 4.0 Distribution Lines 11 kV O/H DCct Medium Distribution Lines 11 kV O/H Light (≤ 50mm2 Al) 649.8 Distribution Lines 11 kV O/H Medium (>50mm2, <150mm2 Al) 165.5 21.8 Distribution Lines 11 kV single phase or SWER lines Distribution Cables 11 kV U/G Medium (>50mm2, <240mm2 Al) 3.2 Distribution Cables 11 kV U/G Light (≤ 50mm2 Al) 8.4 TOTAL 11kV System 852.6 Asset Category – Low Voltage System Length (KM) 3.3 LV Cable Underground Medium ‐ with HV (≤ 240mm2) 60.1 LV Cable Underground Medium LV only (≤ 240mm2) LV Lines Overhead Light 2 wire LV only (≤ 50mm2 Al) 0.9 LV Lines Overhead Light 4 wire LV only (≤ 50mm2 Al) 27.2 5.8 LV Lines Overhead Light Underbuilt 2 wire (≤ 50mm2 Al) 2.6 LV Lines Overhead Medium 4 wire LV only (≤ 150mm2 Al) LV Lines Overhead Medium Underbuilt 4 wire (≤ 150mm2 Al) TOTAL Low Voltage System 85.8 185.7 Page 141 of 193 Table 31 continued – Asset Quantity by Asset Category and ODV Handbook Description Quantity Asset Category Ground Mounted 11/0.4kV Cable Entry 3 Phase 11/0.4kV 100 kVA 16 Ground Mounted 11/0.4kV Cable Entry 3 Phase 11/0.4kV 200 kVA 57 Ground Mounted 11/0.4kV Cable Entry 3 Phase 11/0.4kV 300 kVA 22 Ground Mounted 11/0.4kV Cable Entry 3 Phase 11/0.4kV 500 kVA 3 Ground Mounted 11/0.4kV Cable Entry 3 Phase 11/0.4kV 750 kVA 5 Ground Mounted 11/0.4kV Cable Entry 3 Phase 11/0.4kV 1000 kVA 6 Pole Mounted 11/0.4kV Bushing Terminations 1 Phase 11/0.4kV 30 kVA 14 Pole Mounted 11/0.4kV Bushing Terminations 1 Phase 11/0.4kV UP TO AND INCLUDING 15 kVA 61 Pole Mounted 11/0.4kV Bushing Terminations 3 Phase 11/0.4kV 100 kVA 37 Pole Mounted 11/0.4kV Bushing Terminations 3 Phase 11/0.4kV 200 kVA 16 Pole Mounted 11/0.4kV Bushing Terminations 3 Phase 11/0.4kV 50 kVA 82 Pole Mounted 11/0.4kV Bushing Terminations 3 Phase 11/0.4kV 500 kVA 1 Pole Mounted 11/0.4kV Bushing Terminations 3 Phase 11/0.4kV UP TO AND INCLUDING 30 kVA 1053 1373 Make Asset Category AEI Quantity Rack ‐ mount Circuit Breaker Cooper Pole – mount recloser 10 Nulec Pole – mount recloser 5 6 Cooper Pole – mount sectionaliser Electropar Pole – mount, remotely operated Air Break Switch 18 Schneider Pole – mount, manually operated Air Break Switch (load break) 36 Schneider Pole – mount, manually operated Air Break Switch (non‐load break) DDO’s Pole – mount drop – out fuse assembly (line isolation) 11.4 8 95 213 Asset Age Profiles Age profiles are used to determine where in the life cycle the asset population sits as it is the probability density function (summation) of survival curves (bath-tub curve) for each asset (per the conceptual asset life profile figure below). Populations that display a roll-off of survival at certain age give an indication of the point at which an assets operating costs increase because they need more intensive maintenance and their reliability declines i.e. the age where they pass the optimal point with regard to life cycle costs. It also indicates how many years the asset can remain in service (with rising costs) before its performance becomes unacceptable and/or it fails in service. The roll-off point of the survival curve roughly approximates to the optimal point of the Life Cycle Cost depending on how sensitive/critical asset management objectives are to the asset performance. Page 142 of 193 However the process is not an exact science and relies on the experience and judgement of the asset manager. This is because historical records of asset age and quantity are not likely to be consistent and/or accurate, the asset deployed changes in materials, type and specification, there is variation in the quantities deployed every year, and the level of maintenance during the earlier life asset is in-determinant in terms of its contribution to life extension. For example, the age of an 11kV line is derived from the date it was originally constructed in its entirety. There are no records of whether the materials were new or recycled. The conductors and poles have different life expectancies. The standard for poles has changed from wooden to concrete. It is the condition of the wooden poles that is currently driving HV Line maintenance. Depending on a particular asset groups significance in terms of criticality determines the polices, strategies and practices applied to its maintenance and/or replacement. Critical assets for example, might get replaced before they reach the minimum cost point because a lower risk of in-service failure is deemed appropriate. However, when an asset passes its optimal point it displays rising costs for declining performance. There is a case for replacing assets before they get into this state because if they are replaced early before reaching the optimal cost/life point their costs are still higher than optimal but their performance is significantly better for that higher cost. This rationale is used to spread the replacement time period of asset populations replacement phase. Eventually, after several life cycles, a matured asset population will reach a steady state in terms of the annual quantities being renewed. Figure 20 – Conceptual Asset Age Profile Curves / Interval Setting Page 143 of 193 Figure 20 continued – Conceptual Asset Age Profile Curves / Interval Setting 11.4.1 Asset Age Profile Graphs Provided below are the age profile graphs for the main categories of network asset. Page 144 of 193 Figure 21 – High Voltage Pole Age Profile by Material Type Page 145 of 193 Figure 22 – 11kV Overhead Conductor Age Profile (Length and Type by Year of Installation) Page 146 of 193 Figure 23 – 11kV Underground Cable Age Profile (Length and Type by Year of Installation) Page 147 of 193 Figure 24 – LV Overhead Conductor Age Profile (Length and Type by Year of Installation) Page 148 of 193 Figure 25 – LV Underground Cables Age Profile (Length and Type by Year of Installation) Page 149 of 193 Figure 26 – Small Transformer (<75kVA) Age Profile – Number Installed per Year by Capacity Rating Page 150 of 193 Figure 27 – Large Transformer (>50kVA) Age Profile – Number Installed per Year by Capacity Rating Page 151 of 193 Figure 28 – Air Break Switch Age Profile (Quantity by Year of Installation) Page 152 of 193 Note: limited age profile data is available for LV Poles. The asset records only have the date of construction for LV Lines. The above charts on conductor are also limited as to age profiles because of the practice of reusing second-hand conductor. LV records were not consistently kept prior to undergrounding programmes. Similarly data on the LV lines underbuilt on HV Lines may relate to HV construction dates. 11.4.2 Asset Age Profile Conclusions The survival rate of hardwood poles declines rapidly after 45 years. Scanpower has a policy of not climbing wooden poles, therefore safety management is currently driving renewal programmes. This population is at the end of its economic service life and at the life-cycle cost minimum. Lower condition pole populations (LV and service lines) are displaying higher fault response and reactive maintenance costs indicating this asset has past the optimum cost/performance trade-off. LV service lines in particular are well past the optimal replacement point. However Scanpower does not own these assets and their owners take a much shorter term view of costs and risks. Scanpower therefore intends to control the impact of the rising cost of operating these assets via inspection and notification services. The transformers population is displaying evidence that the population is approaching its service limits. The asset is costly to renew if left to fail in service. The more optimal strategy is to start age replacement of population slightly ahead their predicted end of service. This smoothes expenditure at a small cost premium but does not incur the performance penalty in addition to the cost premium that results from leaving asset in service past its optimal service life. No life cycle conclusions can be drawn on other assets categories as the asset there is inadequate data and/or the life cycle is not sufficiently progressed. 11.5 Drivers for Maintenance Planning 11.5.1 Overview of Performance and Condition Assessment Scanpower’s AM process for maintenance and renewals programmes is based on a cycle of: Targeting inspections, (which in the first instance are visual), on the basis of known condition, age and performance feedback from fault cause analysis. Inspection cycle periods are determined by consideration of type (e.g. wood versus concrete poles) and age. As the asset ages inspection frequency increases ensure that the survival roll-off point is captured before in-service failure. This is an improvement on earlier plans where inspection was comprehensive and at fixed intervals. The inspection process results include a risk assessment where assets are graded by significance of the defect and urgency with which it requires attention. This is a Page 153 of 193 standard risk matrix approach and the management actions it drives are dependent on the assets criticality assessment. A rule based approach is also applied to determine whether or not assets will receive more formal testing such as ultra-sounding wooden poles. The data obtained from this testing allows more accurate assessment of remaining life and whether renewal is necessary or a lesser repair is adequate. This is reactive maintenance. Figure 29 – Performance and Condition Factors – Conceptual Model Test results are fed back into the population condition data to improve the accuracy of records. For example, by modelling the design pole strength of standard structures and assigning a design strength to each pole record, the remaining strength can be better quantified by de-rating the structure for various conditions (e.g. missing stay) found during inspection. The resulting Safety Index can then be applied to prioritising replacement programmes. This is a continuous improvement process as illustrated above. Failure mode analysis and analysis of historical data is a lagging performance indicator whilst condition assessment is considered a leading performance indicator. The Historical data applied to priorities is an example of the application of lagging performance indicator 11.5.2 Criticality and Risk Assessment Without a sub-transmission system and its associated high value assets, Scanpower does not have assets it assesses as being critical in terms of the risk profile they present to delivery of its most critical mission – keeping the power supply on. Page 154 of 193 This tends to limit the options with regard to economically justified maintenance. Leaving assets in service until they fail is a valid strategy in many parts of Scanpower’s low load density network. Figure 30 – Risk-based Analysis and Justification Model 11.5.3 Reliability and Cost Performance Consequently Scanpower applies mostly “rule-based” strategies for its core distribution assets. Reliability and cost performance (both the cost of unplanned response and the cost of planned or pre-emptive maintenance) are the two main drivers for selection of maintenance strategies. 11.5.4 Maintainability and Operability These are also considerations that form part of a holistic asset management approach. However the greatest opportunity for addressing issues with maintenance and operability is at the time of design e.g. design for live line maintenance. Altering work practice is an option for improvements in the mid-life cycle. Maintenance may therefore include elements of continuous improvement and/or modification. Relocating assets to more optimal positions in the network is an example. Page 155 of 193 11.5.5 Modernisation, Quality and Safety Improvements Scanpower also applies some historical data derived strategies with regard to specific assets identified with age deterioration, quality, safety, or other sustainable performance issues. 11.5.6 Systemic Issues Some issues of performance are driven by systemic issues such as: Trade-offs made at the time of design to meet economic constraint on the cost of supply e.g. lower strength/capacity design standards, reuse of second hand materials, line route/accessibility, etc. Operating practices – Scanpower’s use of isolators as its primary switching device has the disadvantage of not being able break 3 phase load for example. Systems engineering – technology is only an improvement when it operates correctly. 11.6 Maintenance Driver Analysis by Asset Category 11.6.1 Hardwood HV Poles Table 32 below summarises the maintenance drivers / approach to hardwood HV poles. Table 32 – Hardwood HV Poles Maintenance Driver Summary HARDWOOD HV POLES Maintenance Drivers POLICY & PRACTICE All hardwood poles to be eliminated from the system by 2020 requiring 193 poles per year to be changed for 8 years. o Safety policy: Wooden poles must not be climbed with just a ladder. o Age renewal: some poles are known to have been second hand when installed and consequently the oldest poles are over 50 years old. In terms of safety compliance, all remaining poles will be subject to below ground inspection over the coming three years at a rate of 515 per year to allow for prioritisation of maintenance activity. CRITICALITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT This asset category is of moderate criticality to the over all system, therefore rules based asset management practices have been applied. Maintenance work will be inspection driven with testing determining remaining life and urgency. Risk weighting has been carried both in terms of ICPs and load. Impact and probability drivers assigned equal weighting as criticality is moderate Table 33 below summarises the expected maintenance activity by feeder and years to completion. Page 156 of 193 Table 33 – Hardwood HV Poles Maintenance Prioritisation, Risk Scoring and Forecast Implementation Time Frames Gap Analysis – Hardwood HV Poles Feeder Weber Mangatera Central Pacific East North Adelaide Te Rehunga Town No.1 Country Town No.2 Total No. of HW HV Poles 563 292 24 46 11 133 51 63 129 169 66 1547 % of Population 36% 19% 2% 3% 1% 9% 3% 4% 8% 11% 4% 3 Yr Inspection Cycle 188 97 8 15 4 44 17 21 43 56 22 ICP Driven (SAIDI Risk) 1.53 0.55 0.10 0.09 0.06 0.49 0.10 0.13 0.13 0.28 0.08 kWh Driven (VoLL Risk) 1.23 0.36 0.05 0.16 0.10 0.61 0.11 0.22 0.14 0.31 0.02 Average 1.38 0.46 0.08 0.13 0.08 0.55 0.11 0.17 0.13 0.29 0.05 Risk Weighting 40% 13% 2% 4% 2% 16% 3% 5% 4% 9% 1% 2011/12 Feeder SAIDI Class C 21.8 11.6 10.3 0.6 % of All System Faults 39% 21% 0% 18% 1% 516 Security Risk Indexes 1.4 0% 3% 8.4 0% 15% 0% 2% 3% 100% 55.7 SAIDI by Cause ‐ Condition 15% 37% 6% 99% 11.3 Condition SAIDI 3.27 4.29 0.00 1.40 0.00 0.17 0.00 1.60 0.00 0.62 0.59 11.94 Condition Weighting 27% 36% 0% 12% 0% 1% 0% 13% 0% 5% 5% Targets 100% 1.6 3.42 Inspection Driven 19 10 1 2 0 4 2 2 4 6 2 53 Risk Driven 28 9 2 3 2 11 2 4 3 6 1 70 Performance Driven 19 25 0 8 0 1 0 9 0 4 3 70 Total 66 44 2 12 2 17 4 15 7 15 7 192 Years to Elimination 8.51 6.60 10.06 3.73 5.72 7.99 13.12 4.18 18.45 11.06 9.90 Page 157 of 193 11.6.2 Hardwood LV Poles Table 34 below summarises the maintenance drivers / approach to hardwood HV poles. Table 34 – Hardwood LV Poles Maintenance Driver Summary HARDWOOD LV POLES Maintenance Drivers POLICY & PRACTICE All hardwood poles to be eliminated from the system by 2020 requiring 65 poles per year to be changed for 8 years. o Safety policy: Wooden poles must not be climbed with just a ladder. o Age renewal: some poles are known to have been second hand when installed and consequently the oldest poles are over 50 years old. In terms of safety compliance, all remaining poles will be subject to below ground inspection over the coming three years at a rate of 172 per year to allow for prioritisation of maintenance activity. CRITICALITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT This asset category is of moderate criticality to the over all system, therefore rules based asset management practices have been applied. Maintenance work will be inspection driven with testing determining remaining life and urgency. Risk weighting – prioritise urban locations where in‐situ risk is higher. Impact and probability drivers assigned equal weighting as criticality is moderate Table 35 below summarises the expected maintenance activity by feeder and years to completion. Page 158 of 193 Table 35 – Hardwood LV Poles Maintenance Prioritisation, Risk Scoring and Forecast Implementation Time Frames Gap Analysis – Hardwood LV Poles Feeder Weber Mangatera Central Pacific East North Adelaide Te Rehunga Town No.1 Country Town No.2 Total 88 79 42 25 0 97 38 22 49 52 25 517 17% 15% 8% 5% 0% 19% 7% 4% 9% 10% 5% 29 26 14 8 0 32 13 7 16 17 8 ICP Driven (SAIDI Risk) 1.53 0.55 0.10 0.09 0.06 0.49 0.10 0.13 0.13 0.28 0.08 kWh Driven (VoLL Risk) 1.23 0.36 0.05 0.16 0.10 0.61 0.11 0.22 0.14 0.31 0.02 Average 1.38 0.46 0.08 0.13 0.08 0.55 0.11 0.17 0.13 0.29 0.05 Risk Weighting 40% 13% 2% 4% 2% 16% 3% 5% 4% 9% 1% 2012 LV Faults 19 4 8 6 1 17 6 13 18 17 11 % of LV Faults 16% 3% 7% 5% 1% 14% 5% 11% 15% 14% 9% Condition Weighting 16% 3% 7% 5% 1% 14% 5% 11% 15% 14% 9% No. of HW LV Poles % of Population 3 Yr Inspection Cycle 172 Load Density Indexes Targets 3.42 120 Inspection Driven 3 3 2 1 0 4 1 1 2 2 1 20 Risk Driven 9 3 0 1 0 4 1 1 1 2 0 22 Performance Driven 4 1 2 1 0 3 1 2 3 3 2 23 Total 16 7 4 3 1 11 3 4 6 7 3 65 5.53 11.69 11.49 8.52 0.00 9.20 11.49 4.93 7.91 7.26 7.39 Years to Elimination Page 159 of 193 11.6.3 Small Transformers (Below 100kVA) Table 36 – Small Transformers – Maintenance Policy, Criticality and Risk Assessment, and Gap Analysis Policy and Practice Service Life Renewal Growth Quality Standarisation Security Safety Indefinite ‐ tend to be replaced for other reasons before failure ‐ potentially at start of age renewal cycle (monitor failures) Manufacturing Standards reduced in 1970's ‐ newer transformers have a shorter nominal life 25‐35yrs c.f. with 45yrs of BS147 Where poles are being replaced the transformer will also be renewed if old than 20 years Transformers manufactured before 1964 have higher iron losses ‐ to be systematically eliminated from population Past practice of refurbishing old transformers stopped ‐ does not extend life economically Limited to new installations ‐ few capacity upgrades Shift to concrete pole/steel crossarm standard design ‐ match crossarm durability to transformer To be reviewed with respect to low capacity supplies and alternative solutions. No contingent capacity capacity provided as interconnection limited Privision for 1 fault per annum Theft of earths biggest safety issue ‐ survey area when discovered and replace as required Older installations may need more satistfactory earthquake rated mounting ‐ upgrade with HV inspection Forecast Work 6 p.a. for 10 years 6 p.a. for 10 years 14 p.a. for 12 years 8 p.a. 1 p.a. 20 p.a. 20 p.a. Criticality and Risk Assessment Criticality Low (2‐3 ICPs per transformer) ‐ therefore replaced on failure, growth, condition, quality or safety Risk Weighting Low ‐ transformers are very lightly loaded and therefore not stressed Lightning and trees clashing lines are the most common root cause of failue and shorten transformer life Performance Low capacity utilisation as a result of historic 3 phase development standard 3 phase supplies have a reduced probability of total loss of supply and reduce the investment in customer service mains However, more costly to the network and a barrier to alternative supply Risk Management Inspection driven ‐ rust, leaks, earth testing, safety ‐ all testing is visual, oil testing is not undertaken Opportunistic renewal undertaken when appropriate Page 160 of 193 Table 35 continued – Small Transformers – Maintenance Policy, Criticality and Risk Assessment, and Gap Analysis Gap Analysis Average installations per annum over 60 year population range Average installations per annum over last 10 years (Increase believed to be related to pole replacement ‐ understated due to legacy practice of avoiding transformer poles) (However will assume high correlation between aged poles and transformers) Pre 1964 transformers Forecast Work 20 p.a. 26 p.a. 14 p.a. for 12 years 11.6.4 Large Transformers (100kVa and above) Table 37 – Large Transformers – Maintenance Policy, Criticality and Risk Assessment, and Gap Analysis Policy and Practice Service Life Renewal Growth Quality Standarisation Security Safety Indefinite – tend to be replaced for other reasons before failure Manufacturing Standards reduced in the 1970’s – newer transformers have a shorter nominal life of 25‐35yrs c.f. with 45yrs of BS147 Where poles are replaced the transformer will also be renewed if older than 20 years Transformers manufactured before 1964 have high iron losses – to be systematically removed from the population Past practice of refurbishing old transformers stopped – does not extend life economically Limited to new installations – few capacity upgrades Shift to concrete pole / steel crossarm standard design – match crossarm durability to transformer To be reviewed with respect to low capacity supplies and alternative solutions No contingent capacity provided as interconnection limited Provision for 1 fault per annum Theft of earths is the main safety issue – survey area when discovered and replace as necessary Older installations may need more satisfactory earthquake rated mounting – upgrade with HV inspection Forecast Work 1 p.a. for 10 years 1 p.a. for 10 years 2 p.a. for 7 years 3 p.a. 1 p.a. 20 p.a. 20 p.a. Page 161 of 193 Table 37 continued – Large Transformers – Maintenance Policy, Criticality and Risk Assessment, and Gap Analysis Criticality and Risk Assessment Criticality High (many ICPs per transformer) – therefore replaced on growth, condition, quality or safety but prior to failure Risk Weighting Medium – transformer loadings not accurately known at the present time Minimal LV interconnection – low level of contingency capacity provisioned Over loading is the most common root cause of failure and shortens transformer life Performance High capacity utilisation as a result of low ADMD assumptions 3 phase supplies have a reduced probability of total loss of supply and reduce the investment in consumer service mains However more costly to the network and a barrier to alternative supply Risk Management Inspection driven – rust, leaks, earth testing, safety review – visual only, no oil testing performed Opportunistic renewal when appropriate Infill distribution and develop LV interconnections as new capacity is required Population Statistics Ground mounted Pole mounted Pre 1964 Forecast Work 36 110 14 Gap Analysis Average installations per annum over 60 year population range Average installations per annum over last 10 years (Increase believed to be related to pole replacement ‐ understated due to legacy practice of avoiding transformer poles) (However will assume high correlation between aged poles and transformers) Pre 1964 transformers Forecast Work 2 p.a. 7 p.a. 2 p.a. for 7 years Page 162 of 193 11.6.5 Air Break Switches Table 38 – Air Break Switches – Maintenance Policy, Criticality and Risk Assessment, and Gap Analysis Policy and Practice Service Life Renewal Growth Quality Standarisation Security Safety Nominal life of 35 years – tend to remain on system until faulty May be recycled and / or relocated to locations requiring lower duty Load Break heads to be fitted to ABS breaking more than 1000kVA transformer capacity ABS are to be rated for Load Break Fault Make duty. Must be operable from the ground without ladders or shotgun stick. Must be accessible – not obstructed by fences, ditches, vegetation, stock etc. Standardise to underhung mounting for live line installation ore removal Line will not be shackled off onto the ABS frame Located where 3 phase switching and / or fault isolation / sectionalising is required. Density to be increased. Provision for 1 fault per annum. Earthing standard revised – upgrades in progress Forecast Work 2 p.a. 2 p.a. 2 p.a. for 10 years 1 p.a. 1 p.a. 15 p.a. for 10 years Criticality and Risk Assessment Criticality Low – fuses are the primary isolation points, therefore ABS are replaced on failure, growth, condition, quality or safety Risk Weighting Low – rated for duty Failure modes – out of adjustment, contact burning, cracked insulator / frost, animal / bird related blow ups Performance High – mature proven technology 3 phase supplies have a reduced probability of total loss of supply and reduce the investment in consumer service mains However more costly to the network and a barrier to alternative supply Risk Management Inspection driven – operating mechanisms, arc horn alignment, earth test, safety review Opportunistic renewal and reoptimisation of location – old equipment may be redeployed Page 163 of 193 Table 37 continued – Air Break Switches – Maintenance Policy, Criticality and Risk Assessment, and Gap Analysis Gap Analysis Automation projects in 2005 and 2008 account for 40 installations Excluding these the average installation rate over the past 10 years 13% of the population is older than the 35 year nominal life – indicative of recycling Additions due to growth Age or fault related replacements Load break heads required in some locations – replace with new ABS then relocate existing ABS to more suitable location Density of sectionalising points to be increased for faster fault isolating processes Forecast Work 4 p.a. 1 p.a. 2 p.a. 11.6.6 Tree Management Table 39 – Tree Management and Maintenance – Summary of Drivers, Objectives, Policies and Strategies Background Trees are not a network asset but Scanpower has a regulatory requirement to manage the safety issues they create when they interfere with its assets. Tree cutting is the single largest component of maintenance expenditure ‐ managing these costs is driver of operational effciency of the Network business. Scanpower has a high tree management challenge resulting from its area being windy and having relatively intensive forrestry. Objectives ALARP ‐ Fire risks asociated with Scapower owned lines. ALARP ‐ Public safety where public have uncontrolled access to Scanpower owned asset. ALARP ‐ Risks to stock and property from Scanpower owned asset. Outages caused by tree/line clashing < 2000 CML per event. Note: There are no "reasonably practical" solutions to addressing mature forrestry blocks compliant with regulation in terms of clearance but presenting a fall zone risk. Page 164 of 193 Table 39 continued – Tree Management and Maintenance – Summary of Drivers, Objectives, Policies and Strategies Assumptions: Forrestry owners also actively manage fire risk. Private property owners manage risks on their property and control public access accordingly. Service line owners manage their own tree issues. Policies Free first cut. No interest declarations subject to strict compliance with legistlation. Disconnection preferred alternative response to forced cuts for service lines. Scanpower will meet duty to notify non‐compliant discoveries ‐ it will not police or enforce regulations. No restoration of supply following a tree related until tree clearances have been restored . Scanpower provides a network subsidised tree trimming service to address lack of resourcing available to tree owners ‐ this service proitises network tree clearing. Gap Analysis Trees are the biggest single cause of outage on Scanpowers network ‐ refer Fault Cause Analysis. Cause analysis indicates that the high impact outages are caused by trees breaking in high winds damanging lines in difficult access locations ‐ typically mature forrestry planted after line construction. These outages are not adequately mitigated by compliance with tree regulations ‐ cost issues shift them outside the "reasonably practical" threshold. Addressing the protection schemes performance to reclose, sectionalise, and clear transcient faults would address tree clashing and burning issues with regard to managing outage. Resource analysis has determined that there are a lack of tree cutting services in the district to allow tree owners to act on tree notices within prescribed timeframes. Historical cutting statistics indicate a backlog in cutting resulting from lack of resource and resistance from tree owners to carry the cost. Refer Cutting Statistics Analysis. Strategy Increase the number of tree crews and dedicate a crew to network only tree clearing. Appoint a Tree Services Manager to drive notification, risk assessment, and work gramming processes. Direct reporting and funding of the Tree Smart to the Network Manager. Refocus risk assessment on network only priorities, safety and cost balance. Refer Tree Risk Assessment Process. Target faster inspection/notice cycles (2 per annum) with an 90% resolution/action target on each cycle. Migrate towards a higher component of chargeable work by eliminating backlog in first cuts and urgent notices. Improve clearance of transcient faults related to trees and wind via the Protection and Automation Plan. Page 165 of 193 11.6.6.1 Tree Risk Assessment Process Figure 31 – Tree Risk Assessment Tool Tree Risk Matrix ‐ 5x5 Probability Rating x Consequence Rating 5 Trees burning in HV Network Lines 4 Trees in the Growth Limit Zone of HV Network Lines 3 Trees burning in HV Service Lines 2 Trees in the Growth Limit Zone of HV Service Lines 1 Trees in the Growth Limit Zone of LV Network Lines Probability Probabilty 5 5 10 15 20 25 Risk Assessment Priority 4 4 8 12 16 20 High 3 months 3 3 6 9 12 15 Medium 1 year 2 2 4 6 8 10 Low 3 years 1 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 Consequence Consequence +1 Fire risk and/or forestry +1 High population density and/or public access +1 Risk to property and/or stock +1 Outage likely to exceed 2000CML +1 Other Significant factor e.g. Major Customer, School, CBD Page 166 of 193 11.6.6.2 Tree Cutting Statistics and Forecast Table 40 – Historic Tree Cutting Statistics Year 1st Cuts incl. No Interest 2nd Cut No Interest 2nd Cut Tree Owner Cost Total Sites Cut 2005/06 159 0 0 159 2006/07 250 0 0 250 Sites per 2yr Cycle Sites p.a. New 1st Cuts p.a. New No Interest Cust p.a. Annual Total Available Resources - Network Crew 338 169 46 8 223 250 Private Line Assumption - Tree Owner Cost Available Resources - Service Crew 56 250 25% Backlog Backlog Cummul. Backlog Urgent Cut Backlog Cut Backlog Notice Backlog 64 64 93 271 338 ‐27 37 2007/08 167 0 0 167 2008/09 100 0 0 100 2009/10 69 3 3 75 2010/11 43 7 1 51 2011/12 26 14 5 45 56 93 123 216 148 364 172 536 178 714 76% 21% 4% 112% Page 167 of 193 Table 41 – Forecast Tree Cutting Statistics Forecasts Urgent Cuts 1st Cuts 2nd Cuts 3rd Cuts 4th Cuts Total Target - Network Cuts at Network Cost Cuts at Tree Owner Cost Targeted Private Tree Work (for full use of resource - 2 crews) 2012/13 93 54 3 2013/14 0 54 196 2014/15 0 54 72 124 2015/16 0 54 0 196 250 2016/17 0 54 0 187 0 241 2017/18 0 54 0 0 169 223 2018/19 0 54 0 0 169 223 150 250 250 150 56 194 103 203 194 72 234 194 54 252 194 54 243 203 54 225 221 54 225 221 Page 168 of 193 11.7 Maintenance Strategy and Practice 11.7.1 HV Line Inspections – Visual Line Inspections Table 42 – HV Line Inspection Maintenance Strategy and Practice HV Line Inspections ‐ visual ground inspections Objectives Cycle Scope Other Identify need/priority for targeted condition assessment Capture Defect Register records and assess defect criticality/risk Idendify development of safety issues ‐ not all issues are visible from perfomance monitoring Ensure maintenance is based on tangible necessity with regard to safety and performance Nominally every 5 years for mature assets ‐ dependent on age/condition risk assessments and/or preformance Age driven ‐ 1st inspection 25 years, 2nd and 3rd 10 years, then 5 yearly for wood, continue at 10 yearly for concrete Condition driven ‐ declining average condition indicates assets approaching end of life. Performance driven ‐ lines in areas of high wind exposure display higher hardware defect rates Ref. SP447 Includes check of broader issues such as trees, foundations/staying, and conductor condition Line patrols are initiated on a reactive basis when casue of a fault or protection setting was not identified The practice of line tightening 2‐5 years after construction is to be introduced as a quality improvement 11.7.2 Below Ground Pole Inspections – Ultrasound Table 43 – Below Ground Pole Inspections Maintenance Strategy and Practice Below Ground Pole Inspections ‐ ultrasound Objectives Cycle Scope Zero in service pole failures Identify remaining strength and service life Prioritse wooden pole replacement programme All hardwood poles over 3 years 1 cycle only as be eliminated from network within 10 years Softwood pole population will reach the age requiring inspections over next 5‐10 years Inspections are targeted by results of visual ground inpsections and/or reported defects Ultrasounds results are applied to assessment of design strength to determine remaining strength Risk assesmment criteria is applied to remaining strength to prioritise replacement programme 11.7.3 LV Line Inspections – Roadside Reticulation Only Table 44 – LV Line (Roadside) Inspections Maintenance Strategy and Practice LV Line Inspections ‐ roadside reticulation only Info As for HV poles with the following differentiation LV poles an spans are shorter, services provide lateral pole top support so design is inherently more robust Lower risks associated with lower voltage. Condition poor in low density rural areas ‐ limited justification for improvement Lower performance drivers as incidents affects fewer consumers Lower condition is driving higher reactive maintenance/fault response Poorer condition in low density rural areas ‐ limited justification for improvement Little merit in upgrading line when consumers relectant Scope Note a signifcant portion of the LV net is underbuilt on HV poles or has been undergrounded The condition of Telecom road crossing poles is driving decisions to underground Page 169 of 193 11.7.4 LV Service Lines (Not Owned by Scanpower – Operating Service Only) Table 45 – LV Service Lines Maintenance Strategy and Practice LV Service Lines ‐ not owned or managed by Scanpower ‐ default operating service only Info These assets are not covered by Line Function Services and Public Safety Management Systems Customer initiated maintenance proving inadequate ‐ driving fault response Poles very old and often light‐weight, conductor old and often inadaquate capacity Objectives Reducing the incidential costs and disruption to work programmes is being addressed via an inspection/notification process Scanpower is not the Regulator ‐ it limits its involvement to notification of non‐compliant or hazardous conditions Consumers will be encouraged to underground when renewing LV service mains Encourage capacity upgrade to improve voltage All repair work is chargeable and actioned by Contracting business unit not Network Cycle A single 10 year inspection cycle of all overhead services Process being developed by EEA will be trialed ‐ resourcing will be drawn from Contracting, Network fault crews, and electricians 11.7.5 HV Switchgear – Visual Ground Inspections Table 46 – HV Switchgear Visual Ground Inspections Strategy and Practice HV Switchgear ‐ visual ground inspections Info Includes ABS's, Reclosers, Auto LBS, Sectionalisers Objectives Capture Defect Register records and assess defect criticality/risk Identify development of safety issues Cycle Nominally every 5 years ‐ sites are visited more frequently as part of routine operating Age driven ‐ 1st inspection 25 years, 2nd and 3rd 10 years, then 5 yearly for wood, continue at 10 yearly for concrete Condition driven ‐ declining average condition indicates assets approaching end of life. Performance driven ‐ equipment with lower reliability inspected more frequently Scope Ref. SC2302 Includes check of broader issues such as trees, access, and earthing Functional and/or trip tests are undertaken on a reactive basis i.e. following a mal‐operating event. Other Modern equipment does not require field maintenance. Fusing and Isolators being reviewed as part of Automation and Protection Development Project ‐ 5 year programme 11.7.6 Ground Mounted Distribution Substations Table 47 – Ground Mounted Distribution Substations Strategy and Practice Ground Mounted Distribution Substations Objectives Capture Defect Register records and assess defect criticality/risk Identify development of safety issues Assess loading ‐ no MDI fitted so spot checks required Cycle Every 2 years ‐ sites are typically located in urban areas and transformer are larger, supplying more consumers May lead to installation of load recorders to assess loading May follow up with thermovision of cable terminations Condition driven ‐ addressing vandalism is the main issue Performance driven ‐ addressing loading is the main issue Scope Ref. MS2001 Includes check of broader issues such as safety notices, trees, access, and earthing Includes LV distribution frames and cable terminations Other Oil processing no longer economic Page 170 of 193 11.7.7 Pole Mounted Distribution Substations Table 48 – Pole Mounted Distribution Substations Strategy and Practice Pole Mounted Distribution Substations Objectives Capture Defect Register records and assess defect criticality/risk Identify development of safety issues Assess loading ‐ no MDI fitted so spot checks required Cycle Every 5 years ‐ sites are typically located in rural areas and transformers are smaller, supplying fewer consumers May lead to installation of load recorders to assess loading May follow up with thermovision of cable terminations Condition driven ‐ rusting and oil leaks main issues experienced Performance driven ‐ addressing loading is the main issue Scope Ref. SP420 Earth testing SP502 Includes check of broader issues such as safety notices, trees, birds nests, and earthing Includes LV Fusing and cable terminations 11.7.8 Tree Trimming Table 49 – Tree Trimming Maintenance Strategy and Practice Tree Trimming Objectives Eliminate high risk/intolerable tree issues Manage trees in the network lines to ALARP principles Provide/support adequate tree trimming resources within the district. Cycle 2 inspection/notfication cycles p.a. High priority sites ‐ 3 month resolution/action Medium priority sites ‐ 1 year resolution/action Low priority sites ‐ 3 year resolution/action or priority reassessed Target 90% cutting success rate per notice cycle Scope HV network owned lines supplying multiple customers have a higher priority Excludes Service lines other than notification of discovered issues unless interable safety issue (disconnect) Other Also addressed by Protection and Automation Project 11.8 Operating Budgets 11.8.1 Asset and Resource Quantity Targets The maintenance planning process determines the quantities and priorities. Specific assets asset can be targeted. Where there are a number of competing maintenance objectives targets are balanced according to risk/cost – benefits. This is often necessary when there are conflicting short term and long term objectives. From this step the budget provisions derived from historical unit costs and the quantity of labour/plant resources determined. The asset management team can then decide whether additional resources need to be outsourced and/or specialist skills such a “live line” working need to be provisioned in order to deliver on outage budgets for example. This process is dynamic because the element of reactive work in response to condition assessment, for example, may drive to the need to re-optimise the plan. Page 171 of 193 11.8.2 Maintenance Expenditure Budget Table 50 – 10 Year Maintenance Expenditure Budget by Asset Activity / Maintenance Type Asset Type Quantity Unit Cost 11 kV Lines & Cables Routine and Preventative Ground Patrols ‐ after Faults 52 Refurbishment and Renewals Total Years 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 $13,000 $250 $13,000 10 $13,000 $13,000 $13,000 $13,000 $13,000 $13,000 $13,000 $13,000 $13,000 $13,000 $65,000 $39,000 10 $39,000 $39,000 $39,000 $39,000 $39,000 $39,000 $39,000 $39,000 $39,000 $39,000 $26,000 10 Pole Relocations 13 $3,000 Minor Maintenance 52 $500 LT Maintenance Routine and Preventative $26,000 $26,000 $26,000 $26,000 $26,000 $26,000 $26,000 $26,000 $26,000 $26,000 $52,000 $52,000 $52,000 $52,000 $52,000 $52,000 $52,000 $52,000 $52,000 $52,000 $52,000 Follow‐up repairs after Faults 104 $500 $52,000 10 Refurbishment and Renewals $61,240 Pole Relocations 6 $3,500 $21,000 10 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 Minor Maintenance 42 $500 $21,000 10 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 LT Misc. Voltage checks, etc. 26 $240 $6,240 10 $6,240 $6,240 $6,240 $6,240 $6,240 $6,240 $6,240 $6,240 $6,240 $6,240 Service Fuse Replacements 52 $250 $13,000 10 $13,000 $13,000 $13,000 $13,000 $13,000 $13,000 $13,000 $13,000 $13,000 $13,000 Transformer Maintenance Routine and Preventative $30,600 Inspection GM Subs 156 $50 $7,800 10 $7,800 $7,800 $7,800 $7,800 $7,800 $7,800 $7,800 $7,800 $7,800 $7,800 MD Check 156 $25 $3,900 10 $3,900 $3,900 $3,900 $3,900 $3,900 $3,900 $3,900 $3,900 $3,900 $3,900 Earth Testing (all equipment) 300 $50 $15,000 10 $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 HV Term./LV Pillar Thermal Imaging 156 $25 $3,900 10 $3,900 $3,900 $3,900 $3,900 $3,900 $3,900 $3,900 $3,900 $3,900 $3,900 Page 172 of 193 Table 50 continued – 10 Year Maintenance Expenditure Budget by Asset Activity / Maintenance Type Asset Type Total Years Refurbishment and Renewals Quantity Unit Cost $13,350 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Minor 6 $500 $3,000 Replace stolen Earthing 20 $240 Upgrade Seismic Standards 20 $240 Install CT's 30 $25 2022 10 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $4,800 10 $4,800 $4,800 $4,800 $4,800 $4,800 $4,800 $4,800 $4,800 $4,800 $4,800 $4,800 5 $4,800 $4,800 $4,800 $4,800 $4,800 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $750 5 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Switchgear Maintenance Routine and Preventative $15,300 $14,400 10 $14,400 $14,400 $14,400 $14,400 $14,400 $14,400 $14,400 $14,400 $14,400 $14,400 10 $900 $900 $900 $900 $900 $900 $900 $900 $900 $900 Pole top service /operation Check 36 $400 Thermal Imaging 36 $25 $900 Refurbishment and Renewals $75,000 Relocations 6 $5,000 $30,000 10 $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 Fuse Coordination 1 $2,000 $2,000 5 $2,000 $2,000 $2,000 $2,000 $2,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 HV Fusing 6 $1,500 $9,000 10 $9,000 $9,000 $9,000 $9,000 $9,000 $9,000 $9,000 $9,000 $9,000 $9,000 Upgrade Earthing/Handle 4 $1,000 $4,000 5 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Regulator Overhaul 3 $6,000 $18,000 1 $18,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 CB Overhaul 6 $2,000 $12,000 1 $12,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Secondary Systems Maintenance Injection Plant Maintenance $5,600 Support Contract 2 $800 $1,600 10 $1,600 $1,600 $1,600 $1,600 $1,600 $1,600 $1,600 $1,600 $1,600 $1,600 Annual Check 2 $2,000 $4,000 10 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 Page 173 of 193 Table 50 continued – 10 Year Maintenance Expenditure Budget by Asset Activity / Maintenance Type Asset Type Scada Maintenance Quantity Unit Cost Total Years $24,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Scada Master Support 1 $6,000 $6,000 10 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 Licences 1 $6,000 $6,000 10 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 Programming & Maintenance 6 $2,000 $12,000 10 $12,000 $12,000 $12,000 $12,000 $12,000 $12,000 $12,000 $12,000 $12,000 $12,000 Radio System Maintenance $18,500 Annual Check 1 $4,500 $4,500 10 $4,500 $4,500 $4,500 $4,500 $4,500 $4,500 $4,500 $4,500 $4,500 $4,500 Support 2 $3,000 $6,000 10 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 Licences and Site Rentals 1 $8,000 $8,000 10 $8,000 $8,000 $8,000 $8,000 $8,000 $8,000 $8,000 $8,000 $8,000 $8,000 Miscellaneous Maintenance $11,200 Safety 2 $1,500 $3,000 10 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 Quality Investigations 12 $500 $6,000 10 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 Compliance, inspections, etc. 6 $200 $1,200 10 $1,200 $1,200 $1,200 $1,200 $1,200 $1,200 $1,200 $1,200 $1,200 $1,200 Unplanned 2 $500 $1,000 10 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 Faults Maintenance $87,020 11kV Distribution Faults 52 $500 $26,000 10 $26,000 $26,000 $26,000 $26,000 $26,000 $26,000 $26,000 $26,000 $26,000 $26,000 11kV Equipment Faults 4 $750 $3,000 10 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 Transformer Faults 4 $750 $3,000 10 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 Tree Faults 26 $750 $19,500 10 $19,500 $19,500 $19,500 $19,500 $19,500 $19,500 $19,500 $19,500 $19,500 $19,500 LT Service Faults (chargeable) 104 $0 $0 10 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 LT Distribution Faults 156 $200 $31,200 10 $31,200 $31,200 $31,200 $31,200 $31,200 $31,200 $31,200 $31,200 $31,200 $31,200 Page 174 of 193 Table 49 continued – 10 Year Maintenance Expenditure Budget by Asset Activity / Maintenance Type Asset Type Quantity Unit Cost Total Years 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 LT Fuse Base Replacements 52 $80 $4,160 10 $4,160 $4,160 $4,160 $4,160 $4,160 $4,160 $4,160 $4,160 $4,160 $4,160 Secondary Systems Faults 4 $40 $160 10 $160 $160 $160 $160 $160 $160 $160 $160 $160 $160 $477,849 $477,849 $447,852 $447,855 $447,858 $447,861 $436,314 $436,317 $436,320 $436,323 $436,326 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 11.8.3 Growth and Renewal Capital Budgets Table 51 – 10 Year Capital Expenditure Budget Description 11kV HW Pole Replacement Quantity Unit Cost Budget Years $454,409 8 $83,234 $83,234 $83,234 $83,234 $83,234 $83,234 $83,234 $83,234 $0 $0 Weber 47 $1,756 $83,234 Mangatera 34 $1,756 $60,578 8 $60,578 $60,578 $60,578 $60,578 $60,578 $60,578 $60,578 $60,578 $0 $0 Central 2 $1,756 $2,782 8 $2,782 $2,782 $2,782 $2,782 $2,782 $2,782 $2,782 $2,782 $0 $0 Pacific 11 $1,756 $18,978 8 $18,978 $18,978 $18,978 $18,978 $18,978 $18,978 $18,978 $18,978 $0 $0 East 2 $1,756 $2,733 8 $2,733 $2,733 $2,733 $2,733 $2,733 $2,733 $2,733 $2,733 $0 $0 North 12 $1,756 $21,444 8 $21,444 $21,444 $21,444 $21,444 $21,444 $21,444 $21,444 $21,444 $0 $0 Adelaide 2 $1,756 $3,841 8 $3,841 $3,841 $3,841 $3,841 $3,841 $3,841 $3,841 $3,841 $0 $0 Te Rehunga 13 $1,756 $22,749 8 $22,749 $22,749 $22,749 $22,749 $22,749 $22,749 $22,749 $22,749 $0 $0 Page 175 of 193 Table 51 continued – 10 Year Capital Expenditure Budget Description Quantity Unit Cost Budget Years 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Town No.1 3 $1,756 $4,725 8 $4,725 $4,725 $4,725 $4,725 $4,725 $4,725 $4,725 $4,725 $0 $0 Country 10 $1,756 $16,928 8 $16,928 $16,928 $16,928 $16,928 $16,928 $16,928 $16,928 $16,928 $0 $0 Town No.2 4 $1,756 $7,839 8 $7,839 $7,839 $7,839 $7,839 $7,839 $7,839 $7,839 $7,839 $0 $0 Pole Replacements ‐ Condition Driven 53 $3,332 $176,579 8 $176,579 $176,579 $176,579 $176,579 $176,579 $176,579 $176,579 $176,579 $0 $0 Pole Replacements ‐ Work Arising 16 $2,000 $32,000 10 $32,000 $32,000 $32,000 $32,000 $32,000 $32,000 $32,000 $32,000 $32,000 $32,000 $115,101 LT HW Pole Age Replacement Pole Replacement ‐ All feeders 32 $1,985 $63,504 8 $63,504 $63,504 $63,504 $63,504 $63,504 $63,504 $63,504 $63,504 $0 $0 Pole Replacements ‐ Condition Driven 13 $1,985 $25,799 8 $25,799 $25,799 $25,799 $25,799 $25,799 $25,799 $25,799 $25,799 $0 $0 Pole Replacements ‐ Work Arising 13 $1,985 $25,799 10 $25,799 $25,799 $25,799 $25,799 $25,799 $25,799 $25,799 $25,799 $25,799 $25,799 $40,845 $40,845 $40,845 $40,845 $40,845 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $308,952 11kV Switchgear Age Replacement Woodlands GXP bypass structures Transformers Large (100kVA+) 1 2 Work Arising 1 $38,619 $38,619 10 $38,619 $38,619 $38,619 $38,619 $38,619 $38,619 $38,619 $38,619 $38,619 $38,619 Pole Replacement Programme 1 $38,619 $38,619 8 $38,619 $38,619 $38,619 $38,619 $38,619 $38,619 $38,619 $38,619 $0 $0 Age replacement ‐ pre 1964 2 $38,619 $77,238 7 $77,238 $77,238 $77,238 $77,238 $77,238 $77,238 $77,238 $0 $0 $0 Growth 3 $38,619 $115,857 10 $115,857 $115,857 $115,857 $115,857 $115,857 $115,857 $115,857 $115,857 $115,857 $115,857 Faults 1 $38,619 $38,619 10 $38,619 $38,619 $38,619 $38,619 $38,619 $38,619 $38,619 $38,619 $38,619 $38,619 Page 176 of 193 Table 51 continued – 50 Year Capital Expenditure Budget Description Transformers Small (100kVA‐) Quantity Unit Cost Budget Years 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 $216,458 Work Arising 6 $6,185 $37,107 10 $37,107 $37,107 $37,107 $37,107 $37,107 $37,107 $37,107 $37,107 $37,107 $37,107 Pole Replacement Programme 6 $6,185 $37,107 8 $37,107 $37,107 $37,107 $37,107 $37,107 $37,107 $37,107 $37,107 $0 $0 Age replacement ‐ pre 1964 14 $6,185 $86,583 12 $86,583 $86,583 $86,583 $86,583 $86,583 $86,583 $86,583 $86,583 $86,583 $86,583 Growth 8 $6,185 $49,476 10 $49,476 $49,476 $49,476 $49,476 $49,476 $49,476 $49,476 $49,476 $49,476 $49,476 Faults 1 $6,185 $6,185 10 $6,185 $6,185 $6,185 $6,185 $6,185 $6,185 $6,185 $6,185 $6,185 $6,185 New Connections (works) $115,080 large (50kVA+) 7 $7,119 $49,833 10 $49,833 $49,833 $49,833 $49,833 $49,833 $49,833 $49,833 $49,833 $49,833 $49,833 Small (50kVA‐) 26 $2,510 $65,247 10 $65,247 $65,247 $65,247 $65,247 $65,247 $65,247 $65,247 $65,247 $65,247 $65,247 $1,250,845 $1,250,845 $1,250,845 $1,210,000 $1,210,000 $1,210,000 $1,210,000 $1,210,000 $1,132,762 $545,325 $545,325 Total Page 177 of 193 11.8.4 Ten Year Network Expenditure Summary Table 52 – 10 Year Network Expenditure Forecast (all Categories) Type Maintenance 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 $477,849 $447,852 $447,855 $447,858 $447,861 Routine Capital $1,250,845 $1,250,845 $1,210,000 $1,210,000 $1,210,000 Network Development $1,243,449 $869,194 $592,245 $314,946 $515,947 Total $2,972,143 $2,567,891 $2,250,100 $1,972,804 $2,173,808 Type 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 $436,314 $436,317 $436,320 $436,323 $436,326 $1,210,000 $1,210,000 $1,132,762 $545,325 $545,325 $89,248 $46,749 $46,750 $131,751 $25,752 $1,735,562 $1,693,066 $1,615,832 $1,113,399 $1,007,403 Maintenance Routine Capital Network Development Total Figure 32 – 10 Year Network Expenditure Forecast (All Categories) Scanpower is opting to treat pole replacements whether condition driven or age renewal as capital. The pole replacement programme accounts for approximately 50% of the routine capital expenditure hence the drop at the end to the wooden pole replacement programme in approximately 8 years. Potentially softwood pole populations and wooden crossarms will be displaying age performance issues by this time. Page 178 of 193 Maintenance expenditure is relatively flat as would be expected in an asset base that is mature and in its steady state. Tree trimming expenditure is not included in these figures. It is treated as separate profit centre. While it currently is the main non-asset maintenance expense, it is forecast to decline rapidly as repeat cutting cycles will be charged to the tree owner. Development expenditure projections are limited by the distance visiable into the future. Scanpower is delaying development to allow the role of DG and smart grid technology to become clearer. Generation and associated R&D is not included in the NDP at this time. Scanpower itself might take on a role of providing DG and/or brokering the energy generated by consumers. This would ultimately become as a separate business within Scanpower when it achieves adequate scale but it may start in the Network as an initiative to manage network issues. Page 179 of 193 12.0 EVALUATION OF PERFORMANCE This section of the AMP describes the progress made with regard to previous plans. In terms of PAS 55 its purpose is to assess how effective the plan has been at delivering on objectives and performance targets. It is the “closing the loop” step the Plan-Do-Check-Act continuous improvement cycle. 12.1 Review of Progress Against Plan 12.1.1 Financial Performance – Capital Expenditure Scanpower’s actual capital expenditure for the financial year ending 31 March 2012 is presented in the two tables below; one with the expenditure allocated by asset type and the other by primary purpose. The actual figures are presented alongside the original budget and the variance to budget arising in each case. Table 53 – 2011/2012 Actual vs Budget Capital Expenditure by Asset & Expenditure Type Scanpower Category 2011/12 Actual 2011/12 Budget Variance 11kV Line Reconstruction $969,096 $647,000 +$322,096 400V Line Reconstruction $63,467 $32,000 +$31,467 $185,694 $140,000 +$45,694 $20,381 $63,500 -$43,119 $137,182 $55,000 +$82,182 $1,375,820 $937,500 +$438,320 2011/12 Actual 2011/12 Budget Variance $0 $36,000 -$36,000 $50,665 $60,000 -$9,335 $1,290,490 $811,000 +$479,490 $34,665 $30,500 +$4,165 Asset Relocations $0 $0 - Undergrounding of Urban 400V Overhead Lines $0 $0 - $1,375,820 $937,500 +$438,320 Transformer Replacements Switchgear Secondary Systems TOTAL CAPITAL BUDGET Category Customer Connections System Growth Asset Replacement and Renewal Reliability, Safety and Environment Total Capital Expenditure Page 180 of 193 As is evident from the figures provided above, at a consolidated level total capital expenditure exceeded budget by $438,320 representing a variance of 47%. The primary driver of this performance was volume of work rather than cost; i.e. more projects were completed during the year than had been anticipated at the budgeting stage. In the case of 11kV line reconstruction, which constitutes the majority of the variance, 13.84 kilometres of line had been budgeted for replacement (Piripiri Road, Okarae Road, State Highway 2 – Smith Street to Otanga Street, Saddle Road – final lower section, Tipapakuku Road, Maunga Road, Cowper Road – Weber to Knight Roads). In addition to this planned work, an additional 7.14 kilometres of line reconstruction was completed (most significantly Mackinley Road, Swinburn Street, State Highway 2 – France Road to ABS122, Blairgowrie Road, Esdale Road, and Park Road). On a proportional basis therefore, 52% more 11kV line was replaced than planned and this explains the 50% cost variance. The decision to undertake this additional work (effectively bringing forward planned projects) was made on the basis that internal contracting / field staff resources were available and would otherwise have been under utilised, and that these projects could be funded without any material adverse impact on the company’s financial position. Similarly, in the case of 400V line reconstruction, whilst Swinburn Street was completed as planned, additional work was completed in York Street and Mclean Street, resulting in 45% more physical asset being replaced. Given a financial variance of 100%, in relative terms cost performance was not as effective as in the 11kV line category, however at $31,467 the financial impact was relatively minor. Capital expenditure in the transformer asset category was $45,694 or 33% higher than expected. When budgeting expenditure in this category it is necessary to include a predictive component to cover unplanned changes that arise due to failures in service. In the case of this financial year, an inadequate amount was budgeted for this purpose (i.e. the cost of replacing faulted units was higher than anticipated). Given Scanpower’s size and relatively small budgets, it is not difficult to exceed those budgets with one or two additional failures (for example the failure this year of a 200KVA transformer contributed $16,716 to the adverse variance). In the switchgear category, whilst planned asset replacements occurred at MacLaurin Street, Dannevirke sewage plant and Gaisford Road, other routine life cycle replacements were deferred pending the investigation of alternative new technologies. Therefore actual expenditure was $43,119 lower than budget which in part offsets that additional expenditure undertaken in the 11kV and 400V line replacement categories. The balance of $137,182 recorded in capital expenditure on secondary systems comprised the following: Upgrades to the company’s radio network $20,439 Ripple relay replacements $85,637 New public safety signage $13,063 Page 181 of 193 GIS software enhancements / functionality $18,043 The $55,000 initially budgeted had been intended to cover solely the replacement of ripple relays. As is evident from the actual figure of $85,637 this project did experience a cost over run. This variance was driven by higher labour costs as opposed to material costs, with gaining access to customer premises one of the main challenges. In regard to the other cost items, these were essentially unbudgeted projects that were implemented during the year. In the case of the new public signage, this initiative arose from the implementation of the company’s new public safety management system. In summary therefore, whilst capital expenditure was high relative to budget, this was volume rather than cost driven and correspondingly more assets were replaced / produced for the additional cost. Nonetheless, this review of financial performance has identified several areas of the budgeting process that can be improved going forwards. This includes more focus on predictive aspects of the budget (i.e. more sophisticated forecasting of growth and fault driven work) and a more granular breakdown of projects. In addition to this, during the year Scanpower has deployed and bedded in a new project costing system (EXO Job Costing) which should enhance project planning, monitoring and reporting. 12.1.2 Financial Performance – Maintenance Expenditure Provided in the table below are summary maintenance costs for the financial year ending 31 March 2012. The actual figures are presented alongside the original budget and the variance to budget arising in each case. Table 54 – 2011/2012 Actual vs Budget Maintenance Expenditure by Expenditure Type Category 2011/12 Actual 2011/12 Budget Variance Routine and Preventative Maintenance $181,074 $210,000 -$28,926 Refurbishment and Renewal Maintenance $351,236 $360,000 -$8,764 Fault and Emergency Maintenance $345,411 $210,000 +$135,411 Total Maintenance Expenditure $877,721 $780,000 +$97,721 Total maintenance expenditure for the year of $877,721 was $97,721 higher than budget, representing an adverse variance of 12.5%. As is evident from the composition of that total, whilst both Routine and Preventative Maintenance and Refurbishment and Renewal Maintenance fell relatively close to budget, it was in the Fault and Emergency Maintenance category that the largest variance occurred. Routine and Preventative Maintenance primarily relates to vegetation clearance / tree trimming and this can fluctuate with growth rates and the frequency of interest / no interest declarations by customers. The total favourable variance of $28,926 or 13.8% is considered relatively minor given the variables inherent in this category. It does however reflect on a generally falling number of “first cuts” (that are completed at Scanpower’s cost) as the tree Page 182 of 193 management programme enters the second cut / trim cycle (completed at the customer’s cost). Refurbishment and Renewal Maintenance fell within 2.4% of budget, producing a small favourable variance of $8,764. Financially therefore it was in line with budgetary expectations. In physical terms, all planned maintenance activities were completed satisfactorily. Fault and Emergency maintenance is typically the cost category with the greatest volatility, being driven by the frequency and nature of unplanned system outages. Fluctuations in the number and type of these outages directly impacts on cost performance as Scanpower has no choice but to respond. As is evident, costs of $345,411 were significantly higher than budget, giving rise to an adverse cost variance of $135,411 or 64%. Both SAIDI and SAIFI results for the year were higher than our internal target levels at 98.79 (target 82.92) and 1.25 (target 0.92) respectively. This indicates that the number of unplanned events was higher than anticipated, and this is reflected in the adverse cost variance. Furthermore, the nature of the faults over 2011/2012 compounded the cost over run. This was particularly evident during August 2011 when heavy winds and snowfalls produced 33 outage incidents, the majority of which were caused by fallen trees through power lines. This subsequently necessitated extensive tree / vegetation clearance work in addition to the pole / line repair works which also contributed to the relatively significant cost variance. 12.2 Review of Service Delivery Against Targets The following outage performance was achieved during the 2011/12 year. SAIDI performance could have been managed to target by reducing planned outages. However, the work program was dominated by pole replacements and line reconstructions and this would have either resulted in less work being completed and/or more costly live line resources being applied. Given the demand on live line crews, it was determined that the long term benefits of asset renewal would take precedent over annual targets. Table 55 – 2011/2012 SAIDI and SAIFI Reliability Performance (Actual vs Target) Description Actual Target Variance Result NETWORK RELIABILITY – SAIDI 98.786 82.290 +16.496 x NETWORK RELIABILITY – SAIFI 1.251 0.919 +0.332 x The monthly profile graphs for SAIDI and SAIFI over the course of the 2011/2012 year are provided below. Page 183 of 193 Figure 33 – SAIDI Montly Performance Trend 2011/2012 Figure 34 – SAIFI Montly Performance Trend 2011/2012 Page 184 of 193 During 2012 Scanpower continued to display a SAIFI outcome exceeding its target. This is has been determined as an issue related to faults caused by mature forestry which although clear of the regulatory growth limits will fall into lines. Forestry happens to be located in areas less suitable for intensive farming so the network is correspondingly remote, spur connected, and cover a wide area/many ICP’s. Mature trees are often twice the height of lines and modern pine species are weak/prone to top breakouts in the districts high winds. SAIFI is also influenced by increase in the amount of planned worked undertaken during the year. While SAIDI can be controlled by maximising the component undertaken by live line practices any outage no matter how short incurs a SAIFI penalty. SAIDI has been managed back to target during 2012 despite SAIFI indicating that speed of response has been improved but there are limited options for addressing the number of consumers affected when a spur line faults. Apart from the increased resourcing being to tree trimming, Scanpower’s response has been to: Opportunistic diversion of lines away from forestry. Investigation of Remote Area Power supplies for remote connections beyond forestry. Both these options are very expensive and often beyond the capacity of farmers to deal with. Scanpower shares some of the burden where this is clearly a legacy issue. 12.3 Review of Planning Process Objectives The planning process and objectives of this plan are new and their derivation is discussed in detail in the AM Strategy section. Although new, they are however largely consistent with previous objectives. Scanpower has not yet completed a PAS55 AM cycle to be in a position to review the effectiveness of its AM System. The AMMAT schedule provided in Appendix A details the level of AMS development that has been realised to date. 12.4 Performance Gap Analysis Scanpower has undertaken a Fault Cause Analysis to determine the main drivers of its outage statistics and identify the parts of the network requiring priority attention. This analysis has led directly to the changes in policy and practice. That is, it has been applied as an input to the planning process, which has been changed to a PAS 55 approach, rather than a check on the effectiveness of past policies and practices which are no longer to be continued. Specifically, the actions targeted by these policy changes are: Revision of the Security Standard; Page 185 of 193 The Automation and Protection Development Project; and Weighting hardwood pole renewal targets on the basis of feeders with the worst performance (and condition) rather than those supplying the most customers (but performing well despite their age). 12.4.1 Fault Cause Analysis By analysing the cause and effect of faults on reliability statistics it is possible to determine the effectiveness of: Maintenance programmes. Protection and automation equipment. Network configuration. The fault finding response. This has been done on a feeder by feeder basis to help determine the priorities for where effort can be most effectively applied in terms of impact on statistics. The analysis is based on the SAIDI statistics for every fault that was experienced in the 2011/12 year. This information has been grouped by feeder and filtered into the 3 most dominant causes that are directly manageable: 1. Transient: These are tripping’s where the cause was not found and the protection held in on reclose – that is, self-clearing faults such as line clashes, bird strikes, tree touches, etc. These statistics indicate the effectiveness of automation. If the protection operates and turns the power off when the fault would otherwise self-clear, then it is the protection system itself that is creating the outage - effectively turning a transient fault into a permanent hard fault. 2. Condition: Lines are designed to be out in all weather conditions for their entire service life. When there are a high number of faults caused by wind and snow it indicates that the condition of asset has deteriorated over time and may benefit from more intensive maintenance. 3. Trees: This is an issue that needs constant management attention and statistics clearly communicate effectiveness of programmes and processes. The statistics are presented in the following figure: Page 186 of 193 Figure 35 – Summary of Fault Cause Analysis GXP Feeder Feeder Statistics MW kWh (excl. ICP's>1GWh) ICP's km km % of System Impact Indicators ICP/km (Connection Density) kWh/ICP kWh/km (Load Density) Probabilty Factors Network Faults/km Feeder Fault Probability Security Risk Indexes ICP Driven (SAIDI Risk) kWh Driven (VoLL Risk) Average Supply Risk Ranking 2011/12 Feeder SAIDI Class C % of All System Faults SAIDI by Cause ‐ Transients SAIDI by Cause ‐ Trees SAIDI by Cause ‐ Condition Weber 2.2 7,460,542 853 262 31% 3.26 8,746 28,475 0.0459 12.0258 1.53 1.23 1.38 1 Mangatera 2 4,335,544 612 132 16% 4.64 7,084 32,845 6.0588 0.55 0.36 0.46 3 21.8 39% 11.6 21% 36% 47% 15% 15% 43% 37% Central 1.8 6,417,197 1151 13 2% 88.54 5,575 493,631 0.5967 0.10 0.05 0.08 9= Dannevirke Pacific East 1.8 3.8 4,272,494 13,980,563 216 735 61 11 7% 1% 3.54 66.82 19,780 19,021 70,041 1,270,960 2.7999 0.5049 0.09 0.06 0.16 0.10 0.13 0.08 6= 9= 1.4 3% 0% 0% 0% 100% North 1.7 7,648,866 559 127 15% 4.40 13,683 60,227 5.8293 0.49 0.61 0.55 2 8.4 15% 0% Adelaide 26% 60% 2% 2.6 10,279,778 892 17 2% 52.47 11,524 604,693 0.7803 0.10 0.11 0.11 8 Te Rehunga 1.1 5,749,357 295 62 7% 4.76 19,489 92,732 2.8458 0.13 0.22 0.17 5 Town No.1 1.1 6,352,069 546 34 4% 16.06 11,634 186,826 1.5606 0.13 0.14 0.13 6= 1.6 3% 0% 0% 0% 100% Woodville Country 0.9 5,145,702 422 96 11% 4.40 12,194 53,601 4.4064 0.28 0.31 0.29 4 Town No.2 1.2 1,216,777 428 26 3% 16.46 2,843 46,799 1.1934 0.08 0.02 0.05 11 10.3 18% 0% Total 0.6 1% 27% 18% 6% 1% 0% 99% 20.2 72,858,889 6709 841 7.98 10,860 86,634 38.6019 55.7 14.6 20.3 11.3 Page 187 of 193 12.4.2 Fault Cause Analysis Findings The fault statistics confirm previous security analysis that the feeders that present the biggest risk profile, in terms of both SAIDI minutes and the economic impact of outages on our consumers, are the rural feeders. There were no faults recorded on any of the urban feeders. Shorter spans and heavier conductor make these lines more robust. The load centres are closer in which means response is quicker (so there is less benefit in automation) and the asset is more visible/likely to get prompt maintenance attention. Transients Transient faults account for 26% (15 minutes) of all SAIDI minutes lost to Class C Outages (faults). Further 54% is attributed to a single feeder – Weber. It would be expect that a properly functioning protection and automation scheme to keep outages attributed non-solid faults below the 2% level. The most likely reasons for this poor performance are: The protection scheme is assessed to be too complicated making coordination difficult. There are too many protection devices organised in series. Specifically, the design is mixing an older branch and group fusing approach with the more modern practice of defusing in favour of automation (reclosers, sectionalisers, remotely controlled switches, and fault indicators). Retrenching fusing back to the transformer fuses would align Scanpower with a well proven best practice. However this needs to be balanced with replacing fault isolation/response capability with more fault indicators, optimising the number of lines sections, placing automation equipment in the most effective locations, etc. The feeders are so long that fault levels are very low at their extremities and in some cases outside of the operating parameters of the automation equipment. This is a more challenging problem to solve – essentially the longest feeders are in the order of twice the distance that would be expected in an 11kV distribution system. This is only possible because the loadings are so low. A 22kV network and/or one with a subtransmission system would have higher fault levels. Generation is likely to be most practical solution in Scanpower’s case. The protection settings are correspondingly quite sensitive. It is better to coarsen the protection so that faults develop sufficient energy to make the damage solid and permanent. A fault that can be seen and heard is more readily located. For example, it would not be expected that the tips of trees burning in the lines would trip the protection to lock-out. The location of automation can be improved. There has been a tendency to locate equipment close-in, where customer density is highest. It may be more effectively to deploy it further out where travel times are longer, asset condition is worse, faults are harder to find, and where faults affect a greater number of up-stream consumers. Similarly, automated tie points tend to be close-in because interconnection is not possible further out. Page 188 of 193 This equipment may deliver greater benefit if it is targeted at faster fault location and isolation. At Scanpower’s relatively low level of fault events, there are diminishing returns to be gained from a strategy of fast supply restoration – that is, investment is better made on network robustness and fault tolerance. Strategy often losses sight of the fact that it is better not to have faults than to be good at responding to them. Trees Trees are the biggest single cause of outage on Scanpower’s network. They account for 36% (20 minutes) of total fault SAIDI. An effective tree management process could be expected to reduce this to between 5-10% at a cost of less than 25% of the current cost to network. Savings in tree cutting and fault response can then redirected into more productive asset management activity. That is, Scanpower needs to get on top of tree management quickly to bring system performance and cost efficiency back into balance. The cost of dealing with trees and faults outweighs the profit contributed to the company by Treesmart pursuing private chargeable work. Tree faults are almost entirely restrained to the three largest rural feeders – Weber (10 minutes), Mangatera (5 minutes), and North (5 minutes). Tree fault SAIDI minutes directly correlate with feeder line lengths. These 3 feeders are clearly where tree trimming notifications are going to deliver the biggest impact and therefore will be prioritised accordingly. While the sensitivity of the protection system does make a significant contribution to tree related SAIDI, the number of breakages due to tree contacts indicates that the level clearance being enforced during tree trimming is not aggressive enough. That is, breakages are not caused by the tips of trees touching the lines – it is more substantial branches and wind fall that is the issue. Trimming to regulatory limits is inadequate – these are the backstops/minimum clearances. Treesmarts cutting recommendations to the owner need to consider how far the trees are likely to sway in the wind and the fall zone of limbs/tree tops that may breakout. The assessment of regulatory clearance can validly take this into account. Of note is that feeders with a high density of dairy farming tend not to have any tree management issues – the land owner has stepped up to mark for other reasons. The Weber feeder in particular, suggests that lines through forestry are an issue – pines tree tops breakout in snow. Condition Condition attributes to approximately 20% (11 minutes) of the fault statistics. Typically, condition is an age related issue however the performance with age is not linear and the survival rate rolls-off in last 5-10 years of the assets service. Lower construction standards (lighter conductor, old copper, bigger spans, thinner poles, etc.) on rural lines usually result in condition issues being restricted to remote/rural feeders – Scanpower is no exception. Page 189 of 193 Condition related issues are more frequent than would be expected on a network where growth was driving upgrade before asset performance starts to decline. Accordingly, Scanpower has a higher demand for maintenance that results in asset renewal, particularly with regard to crossarms (which are the weak link in terms of life expectancy) and copper conductor (which work hardens and lacks strength). The Weber feeder condition related outages are consistent with its system length (30%) and this indicates that it is in an average condition for Scanpower’s asset base. Accordingly the existing levels of maintenance expenditure need to be sustained. The North feeder is showing the benefit of recent maintenance and replacement programmes – it has the lowest level of condition related outage of the rural feeders. The Mangatera feeder dominates condition related faults contributing 4.3 minutes (38% compared to it being only 16% of the network km). That is, its condition related performance is approx. 2 times worse than average. While maintenance expenditure needs be normalised in terms of feeder length, there is a clear case for biasing proportionally more expenditure on the Mangatera feeder. Feeder Specific Issues The Weber feeder represents 39% (22 minutes) of all faults and in terms of system length represents 31% of the network. Clearly it would deliver the most gain from priority asset management attention but the core issue is actually its configuration and the systems engineering of the technology deployed on it. The Weber feeder may be improved by reconfiguring it into two main branches with aim of reducing its excessive spur-like configuration and allow automation to be more optimally deployed. The ultimate long term fix for the feeder however is a generation and/or energy storage/backup system. Generation would also be helpful beyond the load centres on the North and Mangatera feeders. However, an alternative that might be considered is to move one of the transformers, and half the 11kV switchboard, at Dannevirke GXP to a new GXP 15km to the north (Matamau). This does not affect security of the transmission supply or Scanpower’s ability to interconnect via 11kV. In fact, it would improve security, 11kV tie capacity, improve the voltage/capacity, shorten the rural feeder lengths, reduce the need for voltage boosters, etc. The approach is to distribute the transmission capacity (the normal purpose of sub-transmission) closer to the load centres on the 11kV network i.e. more GXP’s, more numerous but shorter 11kV feeders, and greater interconnection. This is a more efficient use of transmission asset than concentrating load and then supplying with 100% redundancy (n-1 security). These findings have been applied as input to the Network Development Plan and developed further. Page 190 of 193 12.5 Public Safety Management Scanpower was issued with a Telarc certification of its Public SMS to NZS7901:2008 on 31 May 2012. It is yet to complete a full cycle of the management system but has completed its first internal audit. The system is at a low level of maturity, partly due to the low frequency of incidents. To date there have been no public safety events or issues to manage and accordingly there is nothing to report. Page 191 of 193 APPENDIX A ASSET MANAGEMENT MATURITY ASSESSMENT TOOL ASSESSMENT OF SCANPOWER REPORT PREPARED BY UTILITY CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 192 of 193 Asset Management Maturity Assessment Tool (AMMAT) assessment summary Prepared for ScanPower Ltd by Utility Consultants Ltd www.utilityconsultants.co.nz February 2013 Introduction Schedule 13 of the Electricity Distribution Information Disclosure Determination 2012 requires all EDB’s to complete an assessment of the maturity of their asset management practices using a prescribed template derived from PAS 55. This requires each EDB to score the maturity of each identified asset management element between 0 and 4 using prompts, and it is expected that the assessment will be repeated at regular intervals as part of the Asset Management Plan disclosure process. This report is intended only as a summary of the Schedule 13. Readers should refer to the full Schedule 13 in regard to compliance with the Determination. Assessment methodology ScanPower engaged Utility Consultants to assist with compiling the AMMAT (Schedule 13). The assessment methodology included discussions with the following people... Ken Mitchell – Network Manager. Lee Bettles – Chief Executive. Ben van der Spuy – Company Accountant. The assessment also included inspections of various documents including the... 2012 – 2022 AMP. Working papers for the PAS 55 implementation. Various board papers. Board agendas. Design and construction standards. Faults database. Network development plan. Network automation strategy. PSMS certificate. Emergency preparedness plan. Summary of ScanPower’s assessment The assessment process resulted in scores from 1 to 3, with most elements scoring a 3. Those elements that scored only a 1 or 2 should easily progress to a 3 as ScanPower implements PAS 55. Key areas identified for possible improvement along with suggested priorities are... Question(s) Suggested priority Recommendation 3 Low Develop a specific AM Policy that visibly links to the Strategic Objectives. 31 Low Continue developing HR Plans and assessing competency requirements, possibly also develop a long‐term funding plan if the network funding requirements are expected to change. 45 Low Implement firmer quality controls for the few AM activities that are out‐sourced. 59 Low Continue with the IS gap analysis work, and more clearly document the interaction of key AM IS. 63, 64 High Continue the current data integrity improvement work. 69, 79 High Include the proposed improved asset lifecycle criticality and risks in the 2013 – 2023 AMP. 82 Medium Consider performing a comprehensive legislative and regulatory compliance review, and from that compile various checklists and calendars for each manager to implement. 113 Medium Continue implementing PAS 55, which will embed continual performance, risk and cost assessments. Detailed assessment of each element The detailed assessment of ScanPower’s asset management practices is as follows... Q. No. Question 3 To what extent has an asset management policy been documented, authorised and communicated? 10 What has the organisation done to ensure that its asset management strategy is consistent with other appropriate organisational policies and strategies, and the needs of stakeholders? Score 2 Evidence inspected Discussions with key people Chapter 1.2 of the AMP sets out 3 objectives for Ken Mitchell indicated that ScanPower is AM. ScanPower's strategic plan was sighted. moving to a PAS 55 objective. However there is no AM Policy as such. 3 The 3 objectives set out in Chapter 1.2 of the Ken Mitchell indicated that ScanPower has AMP are 3 of ScanPower's 6 corporate revised its Strategic Plan in accordance with PAS 55 guidelines. objectives. Q. No. Question 11 In what way does the organisation's asset management strategy take account of the lifecycle of the assets, asset types and asset systems over which the organisation has stewardship? Score 3 Evidence inspected Discussions with key people Chapters 5 and 6 of the 2012 ‐ 2022 AMP Ken Mitchell confirmed that the planned consider the lifecycle of distribution assets revision of the AMP to PAS 55 guidelines will strengthen the linkages between asset (including secondary systems) and also trees. categories and key lifecycle parameters such as failure modes, condition degradation, financing etc. 26 How does the organisation establish and document its asset management plan(s) across the life cycle activities of its assets and asset systems? 3 Draft PAS 55 documents were inspected. Ken Mitchell indicated that adoption of the PAS 55 Lifecycle Optimisation is leading to even greater consideration of asset lifecycles and cost optimisation. 27 How has the organisation communicated its plan(s) to all relevant parties to a level of detail appropriate to the receiver's role in their delivery? 3 The Network Manager's presentation to the Board for Network Development was sighted. This identifies key issues and recommends actions and resourcing. Ken Mitchell indicated that the key themes of the AMP have been explained to staff, including budget targets. ScanPower's field crews are now part of Network so the communication paths are more direct. 29 How are designated responsibilities for delivery of asset plan actions documented? 3 Chapter 2.5 of the AMP describes the Ken Mitchell indicated that the new responsibilities of the CEO and Network structure more clearly identifies roles and Manager. The new structure in which field contributions to objectives. crews are part of Network was also inspected. 31 What has the organisation done to ensure that appropriate arrangements are made available for the efficient and cost effective implementation of the plan(s)? (Note this is about resources and enabling support) 2 The Network Manager's presentation to the Board for Network Development was sighted, and includes resourcing, methodologies and possible funding mechanisms. 33 What plan(s) and procedure(s) does the organisation have for identifying and responding to incidents and emergency situations and ensuring continuity of critical asset management activities? 3 Chapter 7.3 of the 2012 ‐ 2022 AMP describes Ken Mitchell indicated that the emergency the integrated suite of emergency and outage preparedness plans are also included in the plans. PSMS. A back‐up control room is maintained, and SCADA can be remotely operated from laptops. Fault responses can be observed on SmartPhones. Ben van der Spuy that there are no obvious funding constraints to ScanPower's expected works programs. Ken Mitchell indicated that staff competencies and numbers are currently being assessed. Q. No. Question 37 What has the organisation done to appoint member(s) of its management team to be responsible for ensuring that the organisation's assets deliver the requirements of the asset management strategy, objectives and plan(s)? Score 3 Evidence inspected Chapter 2.5 of the AMP describes the responsibilities of the CEO and Network Manager. The new structure in which field crews are part of Network was also inspected. Discussions with key people Ken Mitchell has been appointed as Network Manager with full responsibility for network operation, performance and investment. 40 What evidence can the organisation's top management provide to demonstrate that sufficient resources are available for asset management? 3 The AM model from PAS 55 for building Ben van der Spuy indicated that company competencies has been examined. ScanPower's continued consumer discounts are evidence that ScanPower is adequately funded. Ken Mitchell indicated that a strong balance sheet provides plenty of headroom for debt funding, but that forecast spend requirements can be adequately funded from revenue and retained earnings. ScanPower is currently reviewing competency requirements and recruiting as the nature of work changes eg. installing more voltage regulators. 42 To what degree does the organisation's top management communicate the importance of meeting its asset management requirements? 3 The Network Manager's presentation on the Ben van der Spuy indicated that the Board Network Development Plan was sighted. are very well informed of AM requirements. Ken indicated that the Exec Team are also well informed. The ScanPower Trust receives a copy of the AMP and approves the SCI. Field staff are being told of shifts in direction by weekly meeting and daily communication eg. change in emphasis of work and targets. Q. No. Question 45 Where the organisation has outsourced some of its asset management activities, how has it ensured that appropriate controls are in place to ensure the compliant delivery of its organisational strategic plan, and its asset management policy and strategy? Score 2 Evidence inspected No substantial evidence of firm controls was apparent. This risk is mitigated by the low number of outsourced contracts and by the simplicity of the network. Discussions with key people Ken Mitchell indicated that the only out‐ sourced AM activity is engineering design and specialist activities such as protection setting. The control mechanisms include proven expertise, long‐term long‐term partnering, and involving suppliers at the technical design phase. 48 How does the organisation develop plan(s) for the human resources required to undertake asset management activities ‐ including the development and delivery of asset management strategy, process(es), objectives and plan(s)? 3 A paper by the Network Manager titled Network Ken Mitchell indicated that firstly the Staffing Establishment was sighted. Strategic Plan defines ScanPower's direction, which determines the competencies. A gap analysis of both the volume and nature of competencies is undertaken (as part of the PAS 55 model). 49 How does the organisation identify competency requirements and then plan, provide and record the training necessary to achieve the competencies? 3 A paper by the Network Manager titled Network Notwithstanding that many competencies Staffing Establishment was sighted. are safety requirements, Ken Mitchell indicated that competency requirements are identified directly from the Strategic Plan. ScanPower expects to increase its training as competency requirements evolve. 50 How does the organization ensure that persons under its direct control undertaking asset management related activities have an appropriate level of competence in terms of education, training or experience? 3 A training record was inspected, confirming that a strategic view of competencies is taken. The course notes for the Safety Auditor's course were inspected. A certificate of attendance at a Transpower substation course was inspected. The unit standards training matrix was inspected. Ken Mitchell confirmed that safety competencies are mandatory for prescribed work, and are comprehensively managed. Non‐prescribed work eg. engineering is subject to a strategic review of competencies driven by the changing nature of work requirements and practice changes. Q. No. Question 53 How does the organisation ensure that pertinent asset management information is effectively communicated to and from employees and other stakeholders, including contracted service providers? Score 3 Evidence inspected The Network Manager's presentation on the Network Development Plan was sighted. Board reports of key network parameters were sighted. Discussions with key people Ken Mitchell indicated that two‐way communication has been enhanced by bringing field crews into the Network division. The Board are deemed to be intimately informed of the AMP, whilst the Trust are considered to be informed of the SCI's content. Wider stakeholders can examine the AMP and SCI. 59 What documentation has the organisation established to describe the main elements of its asset management system and interactions between them? 2 Chapter 2.6 of the 2012 ‐ 2022 AMP shows the Ken Mitchell indicated that the interaction interaction of key AM systems. of AM systems is not significantly documented, but a review is in progress. 62 What has the organisation done to determine what its asset management information system(s) should contain in order to support its asset management system? 3 The AMIS Needs Analysis was sighted. The Security Of Supply Analysis was sighted, and confirmed that such pieces of work are used to inform strategy and budgets. Ken Mitchell indicated that a needs analysis of the both tools and data has been undertaken, with a number of priorities being identified by gap analyses eg. MDI's at large distribution substations, being protection models back in‐house, consideration of structural design soft‐ ware. 63 How does the organisation maintain its asset management information system(s) and ensure that the data held within it (them) is of the requisite quality and accuracy and is consistent? 1 Chapter 8.4 of the 2012 ‐ 2022 AMP has been inspected, confirming that integrity of asset data is an area of concern and that remedial measures are planned. The PSMS was inspected. Ken Mitchell indicated that data accuracy and quality gaps are emerging as new AM practices are considered eg. lifecycle modeling reveals that some recorded conductor ages are doubtful. It is expected that implementing PAS 55 will strengthen data quality controls. 64 How has the organisation's ensured its asset management information system is relevant to its needs? 2 An external advisors report identifying asset Ken Mitchell indicated that he has data gaps was sighted. The faults database was undertaken a needs analysis which has sighted. identified gaps in both the existence and quality of data. Q. No. Question 69 How has the organisation documented process(es) and/or procedure(s) for the identification and assessment of asset and asset management related risks throughout the asset life cycle? Score 2 Evidence inspected Discussions with key people Drafts of the 2013 ‐ 2023 AMP have been Ken Mitchell indicated that the revised inspected, and it is confirmed that these risk 2013 ‐ 2023 AMP will consider Criticality & assessments are included. Risks for each asset category. This will include systematic assessment of all classes of risk along with risk mitigation tactics. 79 How does the organisation ensure that the results of risk assessments provide input into the identification of adequate resources and training and competency needs? 2 The analysis estimating the number of poles per Ken Mitchell indicated that least‐cost feeder to be changed every year based on optimisation strategies for delivering objectives and performance has been inspected. objectives are derived from the risk assessments. From those strategies, resources and competencies are being identified, which in turn are reflected in the budgets. 82 What procedure does the organisation have to identify and provide access to its legal, regulatory, statutory and other asset management requirements, and how is requirements incorporated into the asset management system? 2 The directors certification of the 2012 ‐ 2022 AMP has been confirmed. Monthly board reports were examined, and the directors attestation of solvency and risk position was noted. Various papers included in the board agendas addressed risk and strategic initiatives. Lee Bettles indicated that ScanPower tends to rely on the ENA bulletins, Commerce Commission mailing lists and consultants advice. This tends to be reactive. 88 How does the organisation establish implement and maintain process(es) for the implementation of its asset management plan(s) and control of activities across the creation, acquisition or enhancement of assets. This includes design, modification, procurement, construction and commissioning activities? 3 The construction standards for overhead and underground were inspected. The network design standard was inspected. The procedure for converting pole inspection data to safety indices was inspected. Ken Mitchell indicated that lifecycle activities such as design and construction are controlled by Manuals, Design Standards etc. Field crews routinely do work for other EDB's and are therefore used to working to prescribed standards. Pole replacement is being informed by objective methods such as ultra‐sound. Modeling of standard structures is also undertake to estimate safety indices, which are de‐rated for missing components etc. Q. No. Question 91 How does the organisation ensure that process(es) and/or procedure(s) for the implementation of asset management plan(s) and control of activities during maintenance (and inspection) of assets are sufficient to ensure activities are carried out under specified conditions, are consistent with asset management strategy and control cost, risk and performance? Score 3 Evidence inspected The network design standard, the HV inspection policy and the construction standards for overhead and underground were inspected (leading control mechanisms). The lagging control mechanisms of Site Quality Audit, Defect / Non‐Conformance Report, and Site Safety Inspections were sighted. Discussions with key people Ken Mitchell indicated that leading and lagging KPI's have been established. All new prescribed electrical works are inspected for electrical compliance and for project completeness. Site safety audits are also performed. A key control mechanism is the weekly field services meeting. 95 How does the organisation measure the performance and condition of its assets? 3 The faults database was sighted, pole inspection records were inspected. The PSMS was sighted. ABS inspection records were examined. Earth testing records were inspected. Ken Mitchell indicated that analysis of fault data for causes and restoration time is a principal method of performance measurement. Safety performance is measured as part of the PSMS. Condition is assessed principally by planned inspections based on criticality (which are linked to business objectives). 99 How does the organisation ensure responsibility and the authority for the handling, investigation and mitigation of asset‐related failures, incidents and emergency situations and non conformances is clear, unambiguous, understood and communicated? 3 The emergency preparedness plan was sighted. The procedure for fault analysis was discussed, and the Network Manager's paper on fault cause analysis was sighted. Ken Mitchell indicated that completed fault reports are examined by the Duty Engineer to identify any patterns, trends or systemic issues. A policy is in place to inspect assets after faults and eliminate possible causes. An emerging trend may result in an engineering study, and budget allocations. 105 What has the organisation done to establish procedure(s) for the audit of its asset management system (process(es))? 3 The PSMS Audit Certificate was sighted. Ken Mitchell indicated that the PSMS audit has occurred, and that future audits will occur as ScanPower moves to PAS 55 accreditation. Q. No. Question 109 How does the organisation instigate appropriate corrective and/or preventive actions to eliminate or prevent the causes of identified poor performance and non conformance? Score 3 Evidence inspected The Protections & Automation Development Plan was sighted. The Fault Cause Analysis was sighted, and consideration of key issues was confirmed. Discussions with key people Ken Mitchell indicated that processes include fault analysis, KPI reviews, alignment to security of supply criteria, review of policies to better reflect ScanPower's changing circumstances. 113 How does the organisation achieve continual improvement in the optimal combination of costs, asset related risks and the performance and condition of assets and asset systems across the whole life cycle? 2 Working papers and conference notes were inspected. The draft 2013 ‐ 2023 AMP was inspected, which uses a format aligned to PAS 55. Ken Mitchell indicated that ScanPower's adoption of PAS 55 will involve continual pursuit of optimal performance, risk and costs for each asset class because the PAS 55 methodology is cyclical. 115 How does the organisation seek and acquire knowledge about new asset management related technology and practices, and evaluate their potential benefit to the organisation? 3 The NM's analysis of automation options was sighted, and confirmed as being consistent with the wider strategic direction. An email from a supplier to estimate equipment costs was sighted. An email to another EDB to identify possible solutions was sighted. It was confirmed that the process progresses from concept to detail, from broad to narrow. Ken Mitchell indicated that the starting point is to understand ScanPower's needs, and then to identify and assess options against suitable criteria. Obtaining information about new technologies includes attending conferences, reading magazines, talking to suppliers, talking to other EDB's etc. APPENDIX B SCANPOWER LIMITED ASSET MANAGEMENT PLAN COMPLIANCE ASSESSMENT MATRIX / REVIEW Page 193 of 193 Commerce Act (Electricity Distribution Services Information Disclosure) Asset Management Plan Content Requirements This table sets out the mandatory disclosure requirements with respect to AMPs and references those requirements to the contents this AMP document AMP Ref. Reg. Ref. AMP Design 1 The core elements of asset management‐ 3.2 1.1 A focus on performance measurement, monitoring and continuous improvement of asset management practices; Sect. 3.0 1.2 Close alignment with corporate vision and strategy; Sect. 4.0 1.3 That asset management is driven by clearly defined strategies, business objectives and service level targets; Sect. 5.0 1.4 That responsibilities and accountabilities for asset management are clearly assigned; 1.5 An emphasis on knowledge of what assets are owned and why, the location of the assets and the condition of the assets; Sect. 6.0 1.6 An emphasis on optimising asset utilisation and performance; Sect. 10.0 1.7 That a total life cycle approach should be taken to asset management; Sect. 11.0 1.8 That the use of 'non‐network' solutions and demand management techniques as alternatives to asset acquisition is considered . Sect.10.0 8.1 2 The disclosure requirements are designed to produce AMPs that‐ 2.1 Are based on, but are not limited to, the core elements of asset management identified in clause 1; 3.2 2.2 Are clearly documented and communicated to all stakeholders; 8.4 2.3 h the EDB's asset management processes meet best practice criteria consistent with outcomes produced in competitive markets 2.4 Specifically support the achievement of disclosed service level targets; 5.1 2.5 Emphasise knowledge of the performance and risks of assets and identify opportunities to improve performance and provide a sound basis for ongoing risk assessment ; 9.4 2.6 Consider the mechanics of delivery including resourcing; 8.2 2.7 Consider the organisational structure and capability necessary to deliver the AMP; 8.2 2.8 Consider the organisational and contractor competencies and any training requirements; 8.3 2.9 Consider the systems, integration and information management necessary to deliver the plans; Sect. 4.0 2.10 2.11 Use unambiguous and consistent definitions of asset management processes to enhance comparability of asset management practices over time and between EDBs; Promote continual improvements to asset management practices. Sect. 7.0 Sect. 3.0 3.2 Contents of the AMP 3 The AMP must include the following: 3.1 A summary that provides a brief overview of the contents and highlights information that the EDB considers significant 3.2 Details of the background and objectives of the EDB's asset management and planning processes including the purpose statement in clause 3.3 of this appendix. 3.3 A purpose statement which: 2.1 3.3.1 makes clear the purpose and status of the AMP in the EDB's asset management practices. The purpose statement must also include a statement of the objectives of the asset management and planning processes 4.1 3.3.2 states the corporate mission or vision as it relates to asset management 4.3 3.3.3 identifies the documented plans produced as outputs of the annual business planning process adopted by the EDB 4.1 3.3.4 states how the different documented plans relate to one another, with particular reference to any plans specifica lly dealing with asset management 4.1 3.3.5 includes a description of the interaction between the objectives of the AMP and other corporate goals, business planning processes, and plans The purpose statement should be consistent with the EDB's vision and mission statements, and show a clear recognition of stakeholder 3.5 Details of the AMP planning period, which must cover at least a projected period of 10 years commencing with the disclosure year following the date on which the AMP is required to be disclosed The date that it was approved by the directors 3.6 A description of stakeholder interests (owners, consumers etc) which identifies important stakeholders and indicates: 3.4 Sect. 2.0 3.1, 5.1 1.1 1.2 Sect. 4.0 3.6.1 how the interests of stakeholders are identified 4.2 3.6.2 what these interests are 4.2 3.6.3 how these interests are accommodated in asset management practices 4.2 3.6.4 how conflicting interests are managed 4.2 3.7 3 .8 A description of the accountabilities and responsibilities for asset management on at least 3 levels, including: 3.7.1 governance‐a description of the extent of director approva l required for key asset management decisions and the extent to which asset management outcomes are regularly reported to directors 8.1 3.7.2 executive‐an indication of how the in‐house asset management and planning organisation is structured 8.1 3.7.3 field operations‐an overview of how field operations are managed, including a description of the extent to which field work is undertaken in‐ house and the areas where outsourced contractors are used 8.1 All significant assumptions 3.8.1 quantified where possible 9.5 3.8.2 clearly identified in a manner that makes their significance understandable to interested persons 9.5 3.8.3 a description of changes proposed where the information is not based on the EDB's existing business 9.5 3.8.4 set out the sources of uncertainty and the potential effect of the uncertainty on the prospective information 9.5 3.8.5 include the price inflator assumptions used to prepare the financial information disclosed in nominal New Zealand dollars in the Network Expenditure AMP Report 9.5 3.9 A description of the factors that may lead to a material difference between the prospective information disclosed and the corresponding actual information recorded in future disclosures 9.6 3.10 An overview of asset management strategy and delivery 3.1 To support the AMMAT disclosure and assist interested persons to assess the maturity of asset management strategy and delivery, the AMP should identify: • • • • how the asset management strategy is consistent with the supplier's other strategy and policies; how the asset strategy takes into account the life cycle of the assets; the link between the asset management strategy and the AMP; processes that ensure costs, risks and system performance will be effectively controlled when the AMP is implemented. 3.11 An overview of systems and information management data Sect.7.0 To support the AMMAT disclosure and assist interested persons to assess the maturity of systems and information management, the AMP should describe : • • • • the processes used to identify asset management data requirements that cover the whole of life cycle of the assets; the systems used to manage asset data and where the data is used, including an overview of the systems to record asset conditions and operation capacity and to monitor the performance of assets; the systems and controls to ensure the quality and accuracy of asset management information; and the extent to which these systems, processes and controls are integrated . 3.12 A statement covering any limitations in the availability or completeness of asset management data and disclose any initiatives intended to improve the quality of this data 7.8 3.13 A description of the processes used within the EDB for: 7.6 3.14 3.13.1 managing routine asset inspections and network maintenance Sect. 11.0 3.13.2 planning and implementing network development projects Sect. 10.0 3.13.3 measuring network performance. Sect.12.0 an overview of asset management documentation, controls and review processes To support the AMMAT disclosure and assist interested persons to assess the maturity of asset management documentation, controls and review processes, the AMP should: • identify the documentation that describes the key components of the asset management system and the links between the key components; • describe the processes developed around documentation, control and review of key components of the asset management system; where the EDB outsources components of the asset management system, the processes and controls that the EDB uses to ensure efficient • and cost effective delivery of its asset management strategy; • where the EDB outsources components of the asset management system, the systems it uses to retain core asset knowledge in‐house; and • audit or review procedures undertaken in respect of the asset management system. 3.15 An overview of communication and participation processes 8.4 To support the AM MAT disclosure and assist interested persons to assess the maturity of asset management documentation, controls and review processes, the AMP should: • • 3.16 3.17 communicate asset management strategies, objectives, policies and plans to stakeholders involved in the delivery of the asset management requirements, including contractors and consultants; incentivise staff engagement in the efficient and cost effective delivery of the asset management requirements. The AMP must present all financial values in nominal New Zealand dollars; The AMP must be structured and presented in a way that the EDB considers will support the purposes of AMP disclosure set out in clause 2 above. confirmed 3.2 Assets covered 4 The AMP must provide details of the assets covered, including: 4.1 4.2 4.3 a high‐level description of the service areas covered by the EDB and the degree to which these are interlinked, including: Sect. 6.0 4.1.1 the region(s) covered 6.1 4.1.2 identification of large consumers that have a significant impact on network operations or asset management priorities 6.2 4.1.3 description of the load characteristics for different parts of the network 6.3 4.1.4 peak demand and total energy delivered in the previous year, broken down by sub‐network, if any. 6.4 a description of the network configuration, including: 6.5 4.2.1 identifying bulk electricity supply points and any embedded generation with a capacity greater than 1MW. State the existing firm supply capacity and current peak load of each bulk electricity supply point; 6.5.1 4.2.2 a description of the subtransmission system fed from the bulk electricity supply points, including the capacity of zone substations and the voltage(s) of the subtransmission network(s). The AMP must identify the extent to which individual zone substations have n‐x subtransmission security; 6.5.2 4.2.3 a description of the distribution system, including the extent to which it is underground; 6.5.3 4.2.4 a brief description of the network's distribution substation arrangements; 6.5.4 4.2.5 a description of the low voltage network including the extent to which it is underground; and 6.5.5 4.2.6 an overview of secondary assets such as protection relays, ripple injection systems, SCADA and telecommunications systems . 6.5.7 If sub‐networks exist,the network configuration information referred to in subclause 4.2 above must be disclosed for each sub‐network. 6.5.8 Network assets by category 4.4 4.5 The AMP must describe the network assets by providing the following information for each asset category: 4.4.1 voltage levels; 4.4.2 description and quantity of assets; 4.4.3 age profiles; 4.4.4 value of the assets in the category; and 4.4.5 a discussion of the condition of the assets, further broken down into more detailed categories as considered appropriate. Systemic issues leading to the premature replacement of assets or parts of assets should be discussed. The asset categories discussed in subclause 4.4 above shou ld include at least the following: Sect. 11.0 11.3 11.3.2 11.4 11.3.1 11.5, 11.6 Sect. 6.0 4.5.1 the categories listed in the Network Asset AMP Report set out in Schedule 16; 6.5 4.5.2 assets owned by the EDB but installed at bulk supply points owned by others; 6.5.7 4.5.3 EDB owned mobile substations and generators whose function is to increase supply reliability or reduce peak demand; and 6.5.9 4.5.4 other generation plant owned by the EDB. Service Levels 6.5.10 Service Levels 5 The AMP must clearly identify or define a set of performance indicators for which annual performance targets have been defined. The annual performance targets must be consistent with business strategies and asset management objectives and be provided for each year of the AMP planning period. The targets should reflect what is practically achievable given the current network configuration, condition and planned expenditure levels. The targets should be disclosed for each year of the AMP planning period. 6 For non‐exempt EDBs, performance indicators for which targets have been defined in clause 5 above must include the SAlDl assessed value and the SAIFI assessed value required under the price quality path determination applying to the regulatory assessment period in which the next disclosure year falls. 7 Performance indicators for which targets have been defined in clause 5 above should also include: 7.1 Consumer oriented indicators that preferably differentiate between different categories of consumer; 7.2 Indicators of asset performance, asset efficiency and effectiveness, and service efficiency, such as technical and financial performance indicators related to the efficiency of asset utilisation and operation. 8 The AMP must describe the basis on which the target level for each performance indicator was determined. Justification for target levels of service includes consumer expectations or demands, legislative, regulatory, and other stakeholders' requirements or considerations. The AMP should demonstrate how stakeholder needs were ascertained and translated into service level targets. 9 Targets should be compared to historic values where available to provide context and scale to the reader . 10 Where forecast expenditure is expected to materially affect performance against a target defined in clause 5 above, the target should be consistent with the expected change in the level of performance . Sect. 5.0 5.1 10.3.2 4.4.4 Sect. 4&5 12.2 10.6.5 Network Development Planning 11 AMPs must provide a detailed description of network development plans, including‐ Sect. 10.0 11.1 A description of the planning criteria and assumptions for network development; 10.1 11.2 Planning criteria for network developments should be described logically and succinctly. Where probabilistic or scenario‐based planning techniques are used, this should be indicated and the methodology briefly described. 10.4 11.3 A description of strategies or processes (if any) used by the supplier that promote cost efficiency through the use of standardised assets and designs; 11.4 The use of standardised designs may lead to improved cost efficiencies. This section should discuss: 10.5.8&9 11.6 11.4.1 the categories of assets and designs that are standardised; 11.6 11.4.2 the approach used to identify standard designs. 11.6 11.5 A description of strategies or processes (if any) used by the EDB that promote the energy efficient operation of the network. 10.5.5 11.6 A description of the criteria used to determine the capacity of new equipment for different types of assets or different parts of the network. 10.5.2 11.7 A description of the process and criteria used to prioritise network development projects and how these processes and criteria align with the overall corporate goals and vision. 10.6.4 12.4.1 11.8 Details of demand forecasts, the basis on which they are derived,and the specific network locations where constraints are expected due to forecast increases in demand; 10.5 11.8.1 explain the load forecasting methodology and indicate all the factors used in preparing the load estimates; 10.5.3 11.8.2 provide separate forecasts to at least the zone substation level covering at least a minimum 5 year forecast period. Discuss how uncertain but substantial individual projects/developments that affect load are taken into account in the forecasts, making clear the extent to which these uncertain increases in demand are reflected in the forecasts; 10.5.4 11.8.3 identify any network or equipment constraints that may arise due to the anticipated growth in demand during the AMP planning period; and 10.5.2 11.8.4 discuss the impact on the load forecasts of any embedded generation or anticipated levels of distributed generation in a network, and the projected impact of any demand management initiatives. 10.5.8 11.9 12 Analysis of the significant network level development options available and details of the decisions made to satisfy and meet target levels of service, including 11.9.1 the reasons for choosing a selected option for projects where decisions have been made; 11.9.2 the alternative options proposed for projects that are planned to start in the next 5 years and the potential for non‐network solutions described; 11.9.3 a consideration of planned innovations that improve efficiencies within the network, such as improved utilisation, extended asset lives, and deferred investment. AMPs must include a description and identification of the network development programme including distributed generation and non‐network solutions and actions to be taken, including associated expenditure projections. The network development plan must include: 12.1 A detailed description of the projects currently underway or planned to start within the next 12 months; 12.2 A summary description of the projects planned for the next 4 years; and 12.3 An overview of the projects being considered for the remainde r of the AMP planning period. 10.5.5 10.6 10.6.4 10.6 10.5.5 10.5.5 10.5.5 10.6 10.5.5 10.7 13 AMPs must describe the EDB's policies on distributed generation, including the policies for connecting embedded generation. The impact of such generation on network development plans must also be stated. 10.5.8 14 AMPs must discuss the EDB's policies on non‐network solutions, including: 10.5.5 14.1 Economically feasible and practical alternatives to conventional network augmentation. These are typically approaches that would reduce network demand and/or improve asset utilisation; and 14.2 The potential for non‐network solutions to address network problems or constraints . 10.5.5 10.5.8&9 Lifecycle Asset Management Planning (Maintenance and Renewal) 15 The AMP must provide a detailed description of the lifecycle asset management processes, including‐ Sect. 11.0 15.1 The key drivers for maintenance planning and assumptions ; 11.5 15.2 Identification of routine and corrective maintenance and inspection policies and programmes and actions to be taken for each asset category, including associated expenditure projections. This must include: 11.6 15.2.1 the approach to inspecting and maintaining each asset category, including a description of the types of inspections, tests and condition monitoring carried out and the intervals at which this is done; 15.2.2 any systemic problems identified with any particular asset types and the proposed actions to address these problems; and 15.2.3 budgets for maintenance activities broken down by asset category for the AMP planning period. 11.7 11.5.6 11.6 11.8 15.3 Identification of asset refurbishment and renewal policies and programmes and actions to be taken for each asset category, including associated expenditure projections. This must include: 11.6 15.3.1 the processes used to decide when and whether an asset is replaced or refurbished, including a description of the factors on which decisions are based; 15.3.2 a description of the projects currently underway or planned for the next 12 months; 11.7 15.3.3 a summary of the projects planned for the following 4 years; and 11.8 15.3.4 an overview of other work being considered for the remainder of the AMP planning period. 11.5&6 11.8.4 Risk Management 16 AMPs must provide details of risk policies, assessment, and mitigation, including‐ Sect. 9.0 16.1 Methods, details and conclusions of risk analysis; 9.4 16.2 Strategies used to identify areas of the network that are vulnerable to high impact low probability events and a description of the resilience of the network and asset management systems to such events; 9.4 16.3 A description of the policies to mitigate or manage the risks of events identified in subclause 16.2 above; 9.4 17 Details of emergency response and contingency plans. 9.2 18 Details of any insurance cover for the assets, including: 9.3 18.1 The EDB's approaches and practices in regard to the insurance of assets, including the level of insurance; 9.3 18.2 In respect of any self insurance, the level of reserves,details of how reserves are managed and invested, and details of any reinsurance. 9.3 Evaluation of performance 19 AMPs must provide details of performance measurement, evaluation, and improvement, including‐ 19.1 Sect. 12.0 A review of progress against plan, both physical and financial; 12.1 • • • 19.2 referring to the most recent disclosures made under clause 5 of section 2.5, discussing any significant differences and highlighting reasons for substantial variances; commenting on the progress of development projects against that planned in the previous AMP and provide reasons for substantial variances along with any significant construction or other problems experienced; commenting on progress against maintenance initiatives and programmes and discuss the effectiveness of these programmes noted. An evaluation and comparison of actual service level performance against targeted performance; • 12.2 in particular, comparing the actual and target service level performance for all the targets discussed under the Service Levels section of the AMP over the previous 5 years and explain any significant variances; 19.3 An evaluation and comparison of the results of the asset management maturity assessment disclosed in the AMMAT Report against relevant objectives of the EDB's asset management and planning processes. 7.10 19.4 An analysis of gaps identified in subclauses 19.2 and 19.3 above . Where significant gaps exist (not caused by one‐off factors), the AMP must describe any planned initiatives to address the situation . 12.4 Capability to deliver 20 AMPs must describe the processes used by the EDB to ensure that; 20.1 The AMP is realistic and the objectives set out in the plan can be achieved ; 8.2 20.2 The organisation structure and the processes for authorisation and business capabilities will support the implementation of the AMP plans. 8.2 AMMAT Report 21 Each supplier must complete the AMMAT Report. The EDB must ensure that the person responsible for managing network assets (or a similar level individual) in the organisation takes responsibility for completing and maintaining the AMMAT, including: Append. B 21.1 Organising people within the organisation to answer the questions; 7.10.1 21.2 Arranging for all information to be captured within the AMMAT; 7.10.1 21.3 Reporting to the organisation on the results of the assessment; 7.10.1 21.4 Planning the assessment process, including: 21.4.1 determining the form the assessment process is to take. In this context, the principal formats are generally taken to be interviews, facilitated groups/pane ls or a combination of the two; 7.10.1 21.4.2 arranging for appropriate outsourced service providers and stakeholders to act as respondents during the assessment exercise; 7.10.1 21.4.3 providing appropriate pre‐assessment communication (and training where appropriate) to ensure that, as a minimum, the proposed respondents are aware of the AMMAT process and the part within it that they are being asked to play; 7.10.1 21.4.4 identifying which questions are to be asked of which respondents . 7.10.1