BIBINI CENTRE FOR YOUNG PEOPLE

PRINCES PARK HOUSING, LIVERPOOL
DESIGN FOR FUTURE CLIMATE 2
FINAL REPORT
for
The Technology Strategy Board
by
Ian McHugh, Triangle Architects/Green Triangle Studio
FINAL 04.03.2014
Author:
Ian McHugh
Contributors to the study:
Prof. Greg Keeffe
Morgan Grennan
Matthew Hargreaves
Peter Fisk
Mark Trayhorn
David Ward
Lucy Andersson
Matthew Adams
Ian MacIver
Simon Brady
Mike Hornsby
Helen Riley
Inger Leach
Steve Elliott
Triangle Architects/
Green Triangle Studio
School of Architecture, Queens University, Belfast
School of Architecture, Queens University, Belfast
Triangle Architects
Triangle Architects
Triangle Architects
Triangle Architects
Leeds School of Architecture
The Energy Council
Sutcliffe Consulting Engineers
Sutcliffe Consulting Engineers
Markhams
Markhams
Plus Dane Housing
Plus Dane Housing
Triangle Architects Ltd.
Manchester office: Raven House, 113 Fairfield Street, Manchester, M12 6EL Tel: 0161 272 3500 Fax: 0161 272 3501
ian@triangle-architects.ltd.uk
green.triangle@btinternet.com
www.triangle-architects.ltd.uk
www.greentrianglestudio.com
CONTENTS
Page
List of Appendices
5
Executive Summary
6
Aims Of The Study
11
1.0 Building Project
12
a.
12
Project Description
2.0 Climate Change Risk Assessment
16
a.
b.





Design Challenges We are Prioritising and Why
Future Climate
Rain
Temperature
Wind
Climate Change Risk Assessment
16


Shortfalls in Data and Data Processing Tools
Weather data
Computer Modelling
36

Other Features Significant to the Adaptation
Strategy
Timber Building Systems Review
c.
37
3.0 Adaptation Strategy

a)
b)
43
Overview
3.1 Strategy 1 – Near to Market Adaptations


Page
44
Background
Methodology
The Strategy
 Immediate Implementation Strategy
 Commentary
46
Timescales and Triggers for Implementation
Future Strategy
Commentary
52
c)
Cost Analysis
57
d)
Barriers to Implementation
60


3.2 Strategy 2 – Future Product
62
a)
The Strategy
IDEAhaus Concept
IDEAhaus Construction
Performance Modelling
62
Timescales & Triggers for Implementation
78
b)



2
c)
Cost Analysis
79
d)
Barriers to Implementation
81
4.0 Learning from work on this Contract
a)
82







Summary Of Our Approach To The Adaptation
Design Work
Research
Risk Assessment
Option Appraisal
Two Strategies
Near to Market Strategy
Future Product Strategy
Dissemination
84



Who Was Involved And What They Brought To
The Project
Relationship Of CCA Team To Building Project
Team Details
Post-Tender Team Roles




The Initial Project Plan And How This Changed
Timeline of CCA Study to Building Project
Achievements
Delays
Continuing Risks
90
93


The Resources And Tools Used And Their Strengths
And Limitations
Climate & Weather Modelling
Thermal Modelling
b)
c)
d)



Wind Modelling
Micro-climate
Margins Of Error
e)
What Worked Well And What Worked Badly In Our
Approach
96
f)
98


Decision Making Processes By The Client On Implementing
Recommendations And The Best Ways To Influence Them?
Decision Making Processes
Influencing Clients



The Resources We Recommend Others To Use
Climate & Weather Modelling
Thermal & Energy Modelling
Background Reading/ Reference Material
101
g)
5.0 Extending Adaptation to Other Buildings
a)


How This Strategy, Recommendations And Analyses Might
Be Applied To Other Buildings
Design Principles
Key features



Description of limitations of applying this strategy to other
buildings
Local Weather
Building Use & Users
Building Typology


Which Buildings Across The UK Might Be Suitable For
Similar Recommendations
The Need For Housing
Different Regional Needs
b)
c)
103
103
106
107
3

Potential Market for Systemised House Building



Resources, tools and materials we developed for
providing future adaptation services
Design & Appraisal Skills
Risk & Option Appraisal Tools
Presentation Material








Further needs we have in order to provide adaptation
services
Clients
Funders
Insurers
Authorities
Academics
Professional Bodies
Design Team
Industry
d)
e)
109
110
4
LIST OF APPENDICES
APPENDIX 1 – BUILDING PROFILE
1.1
Drawings - Site
1.2
Drawings – Baseline Scheme
1.3
Site Photos
APPENDIX 5 – EXTENDING ADAPTATION TO OTHER
BUILDINGS
5.1
PLEA2013 Munich Conference Paper
5.2
IDEAhaus presentation to MSA
APPENDIX 2 – CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS
2.1
Future Climate Data – Prometheus
2.2
Thermal Modelling and CFD Analysis
2.3
Sefaira Energy Modelling
2.3
Fabric Specification Energy Comparisons 2010
2.4
Heating-Cooling Energy Analysis 2010-2080
2.5
Civil & Structural Engineering Impacts
2.6
Climate Change Risk Assessment
2.7
Timber Building Systems Report
2.8
Maple SUPAwall product info
2.9
Hemcrete/ Hembuild product info
2.10 RuralZed product info
APPENDIX 3 – ADAPTATION STRATEGY
3.1
SWOT Analysis
3.2
Potential Adaptation Measures – Near to Market
3.3
Drawings – Approved Planning Scheme
3.4
Drawings – Future Product (IDEAhaus)
3.5
Cost Report
APPENDIX 4 – LEARNING FROM WORK ON THIS CONTRACT
4.1
Team Biographies
5
PRINCES PARK HOUSING, LIVERPOOL
DESIGN FOR FUTURE CLIMATE 2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
for
The Technology Strategy Board
by
Ian McHugh, Triangle Architects/Green Triangle Studio
FINAL 04.03.2014
6
Aims
The aim of the project was to develop a strategy for adaptation for future climate change that would be based around the following:
Research climate change risks for low rise social housing in Liverpool and the region.
Propose practical and affordable measures which could improve the resilience of low rise social housing
Design an idealised future product for more industrialised housing delivery
Consider masterplanning and landscape measures to improve climate resilience
Background
Project
The project looked at the design of a regeneration scheme in inner city Liverpool with an approximate £24M construction budget for a Registered
Social Housing Provider. The development will be new build low rise family housing mainly for social rent. Social landlords are increasingly
interested in industrialised housing construction methods from simple open panel timber frame to full volumetric options. However these clients
tend to be very risk averse and costs are often still higher for more innovative systems. There is also little awareness in the housing sector of the
projected impacts of climate change. By 2080 temperatures are projected to be nearer to those of Rome today! Rainfall patterns are likely to give
much drier summers and wetter winters. The project investigated the climate factors for the site, the wider implications for types of construction
and the client’s prioritisation of risks and proposed remedies.
Design Team
The interdisciplinary study team consisted of architects, sustainable design academics, civil & structural engineers, thermal & energy modellers
and cost consultants. All except the academics were also members of the project design team.
7
Strategies
The project investigated two strategies in order to maximise the outcomes of the project:
Near to Market: Potential Adaptation Measures were proposed against all risks identified and a rigorous technical & cost appraisal
approach with the client’s close involvement produced a shortlist of features to be implemented in the adopted scheme and recorded the
decision making rationale. The passive cooling strategy included thermal mass, ventilation and shading options.
Future Product: The key principles identified were integrated into a future product concept design branded the IDEAhaus which is
Industrialised, Delightful, Efficient and Adaptable. This design proposes a small number of major Core Components such as floor, wall and
roof panels and volumetric bathroom & stair assemblies. This allows for a large number of Additive Components such as cladding, fit-out
and an exo-structural frame which can accept combinations of shading, planting, balconies etc. Adaptable services include underfloor
heating and PV-Thermal roof panels.
Findings
Temperature
The climate research identified average summer temperature in Liverpool could rise by 9degC. Modelling also found that overheating is already a
potential problem in highly insulated timber frame houses. The house modelled showed overheating (above 28degC) in 6.6% of annual habitable
hours compared to a max 1% recommended by CIBSE. By 2080 this had risen to 50.5% annually and 74.6% in summer months making the
houses virtually uninhabitable.
The client adopted some significant Near to Market recommendations on ventilation including addition of rooflights over stairs, improved windows
and raising ceiling heights. They would not commit to thermal mass in the structure for cost/ design & build reasons, and shading is accepted as a
future addition if required. Improvements were made to the landscape design to provide additional and better planned green space and trees for
amenity and shade.
The Future Product IDEAhaus proposal included a more fully integrated design with thermal mass provided by Hemcrete wall panels, concrete
base & upstand and clay floor blocks. Ventilation was improved by window design and central opening rooflight over stairwell. Shading could be
added by using external exo-structure to add a range of shading devices as required. Modelling showed overheating reduced to 0.2% annually
now and 12.1% in 2080 by using these passive cooling features.
8
Energy use was also modelled with space heating and air-conditioning. This showed that the cooling energy demand could overtake heating
demand in a timber frame house by 2040. The IDEAhaus with the same level of insulation, showed this ‘energy crossover’ moved back to around
2050 and a much lower energy use overall during the whole period to 2080.
Rain
The site was found to be at low risk of flooding due to topography. However, 100 year flood events in winter in Liverpool are projected to become
more common to a 46 year probability. Timber frame construction is also vulnerable to flooding, so inclusion of resilience measures would benefit
at a wider scale, eg. for a mass produced building system. Near to Market measures were recommended to reduce and mitigate against the risks
of flood including more permeable surfacing, ground modelling for rain gardens, increasing capacity of drainage systems, and specifying more
flood resilient construction. The IDEAhaus system proposes a concrete upstand around the ground floor to flood proof up to 750mm high.
Wind
Extreme wind data was lacking but high winds are expected to become more severe and more frequent. The study found that building form and
tree planting could reduce wind speeds locally. The client decided that the cost:risk ratio of precautionary structural upgrading did not justify
additional expenditure now.
Appraisal
In the early appraisal work a simple ‘traffic light’ assessment was used to appraise cost and effectiveness of proposals. This narrowed down
options and detailed costs were prepared for final shortlisted recommendations. The client’s close involvement meant that they could assess risk
and value better and although there are tight budgetary constraints, they did agree to additional costs.
The IDEAhaus cannot be costed by standard comparable construction measures as it would rely on a high degree of mass production and prefabrication. However the cost report did provide comment on the main features which were found to be likely to carry a cost premium although
quality and performance would be higher. Industrialisation could reduce these costs but it was felt the market would also have to change to
recognise the value provided if this was to become viable.
Barriers to Implementation
The clients decision making criteria on Near to Market recommendations was recorded and the main barriers to implementation were identified as:
 Capital cost
65%
 Low risk perception
32%
 Design & cultural objections 28%
 Local authority objections
27%
 Management & maintenance 18%
 Timetable & buildability
8%
9
Conclusions
Climatic modeling for building design utilising future climatic datasets from Prometheus gives a good method of assessing future performance.
The datasets should be selected based on clients priorities for risk albeit with a widening band of uncertainty against time and the rate of change,
but the direction of travel is consistent.
There are many low regret adaptation solutions which can be practically and affordably implemented to typical housing developments with
common forms of construction
There is a need for increasing cooling demand to be recognised in housing design and appropriate passive cooling strategies can provide more
comfortable and energy efficient houses.
Timber frame structures can be flood resistant if adequately protected and can incorporate effective thermal mass.
Mass customisation can provide an industrialised but attractive choice of products and adaptable construction can allow for future uncertainty.
Effective masterplanning and landscape design can help to mitigate effects of overheating, flooding and wind
Clients must see business benefits, not just risks and features, if they are to value and implement adaptation measures
10
Aims of the Study
The aims of this study are to investigate and answer the five questions set by the TSB brief:
 What is the building profile for your project?
 What is the risk exposure for your building to the predicted future climate?
 What is the adaptation strategy for your building over its lifetime to improve resistance and resilience to climate change and thus extend
the commercial viability?
 What is the best way to conduct adaptation work?
 How can this work be used to extend adaptation of other buildings?
The primary aim for this study was to consider the effects of climate change on, and appropriate adaptation strategies for industrialised timber
building systems for a large inner city housing scheme.
The project will consider innovative house building product typologies from closed panel timber frame to fully ‘volumetric’ building systems that
utilise factory‐made inner insulated shell and are brought to site complete with all plumbing and fixtures (this is then clad on‐site with an
external skin). Plus Dane Housing Group are a major provider of Social Housing and have utilised timber frame construction for many years.
They now wish to explore the benefits of volumetric and other industrialised timber building systems. The aim of the project is to assess this
emerging market, then to compare and contrast with the more usual timber frame construction. Product designs will then be developed that will
be resilient in future climate conditions. It is intended to arrive at a housing product that could be replicated around the UK, but that has been
assessed on a real site.
After appraisal of available systems, the project will consider detailed design development for two volumetric enclosures,
 one being the best adaptation of an existing method, within existing custom and practice;
and
 a second design that will be a more holistic development from first principles.
In addition the project will examine the effect that the external façade plays in the thermal and structural performance of the building, and also
the effect of masterplanning and landscape on performance.
The following final report is intended to outline the research, option appraisal and design/specification stages of the study.
11
1. Building Project
1a. Project Description
This section provides an outline of the current proposed scheme.
Further details are discussed under the following sections on Risks
and Strategies in this report.
The scheme is in a designated regeneration area which also includes
much refurbishment of traditional Victorian housing in surrounding
streets. A new build redevelopment of this site is intended to provide
relatively high density replacement housing but with better internal
space, greater external amenity space and help to regenerate the
local economy and housing market.
The Project
The project is for the Princes Park Housing regeneration scheme in
inner city Liverpool with an approximate £24M construction budget
for Plus Dane Housing, a Registered Social Housing Provider. The
development will be new build low rise family housing is for
affordable rent, shared ownership and possibly some private for sale.
This development has high political priority in Liverpool although
progress has been staggered since its inception in 2004 with political
sensitivities over the clearance of existing stock and private
developers withdrawing due to the housing crash.
The scheme is required to achieve a minimum Code for Sustainable
Homes Level 3 rating. The client is also aware of the route map to
carbon neutrality in government plans and ideally, designs should be
upgradable to meet higher standards on future projects.
12
The Site
The site is located in Liverpool 8 which has a high level of deprivation
and has suffered extensive depopulation, but is known for its strong
community spirit. It is close to the large green area of Princes Park.
Site in context
Site location
Existing streets on and around the site are low rise terraced housing
with a very dense layout of narrow streets small back yards with
houses on a diagonal aspect facing SW and NE (see Appendix 1.1
and 1.3 for drawings and photographs). There is a gradual fall across
the site generally towards the north.
Only desktop studies are currently available but it is anticipated from
local knowledge that the ground conditions will be largely cohesive
clay soils and fill.
The ‘Baseline Scheme’
Due to the state of design options at the study’s outset, a previously
agreed site layout was selected as a ‘Baseline scheme’. This has
been used as a starting point for the purposes of comparative
modelling and risk assessment.
13
The layout is based on a square ‘city block’ arrangement, with
terraced houses and corner house variations.
Baseline scheme layout
The house type plans used are based on the ‘Evolve’, 3 bedroom
volumetric housing system offered by Bramall Construction on the
basis that this would lend itself to various construction systems for
production, transportation and installation purposes. This was one of
the systems of interest to Plus Dane from the outset. Although
various elevational treatments and window arrangements are
possible, the most standard, traditional looking option has been
selected for the baseline scheme. (See Appendix 1.2)
Baseline scheme house type
For modelling purposes, the construction and insulation levels used
have been based on the Maple SupaWall system (see Appendix 2.8)
which represents the client’s aspiration for very high specification
timber frame housing. Typical fabric U-values are approx 0.11
W/m2K and air-tightness of 3m3/h/m2. This includes for brickwork
outer skin and tiled pitched roof.
Heating and hot water to properties would be traditional central
heating from individual gas fired combi boilers with radiators.
Natural ventilation is anticipated throughout, except for the normal
extract to kitchens & bathrooms
14
No renewable technologies are anticipated as the energy
requirements of Code 3 should be met through the high performing
building fabric. There will be some attenuation of surface water
required but there is no rainwater recycling proposed.
Development Phasing and Context
mothball their volumetric construction factory due to the downturn in
the housing market and the study was widened to include a review of
a range of system build options. Work on this study will help to inform
the client’s decisions on the most appropriate design and
construction route to take on this and future sites.
The development will be phased with a total of up to approximately
240 new homes depending on the final layout. The first phase will be
predominantly for rent and shared ownership and consist of
approximately 116 dwellings. The first construction phase was to be
fully for Plus Dane. Later phases will hopefully also include private
housing for sale with other development partners involved, but to an
approved masterplan and design. During the project the client’s
priorities changed due to increasing economic constraints and
reduced government funding. It was decided that Phase 1 would be
tendered to include a proportion of private housing for sale to the
same design and specification as the social housing. This element
would be constructed and sold by the successful contractor making
them a future development partner.
The Planning submission was deferred several times due to local
issues about demolition but the scheme received Planning Approval
in July 2013. However it has now been called in by the Secretary of
State for a Public Inquiry which will be held in June 2014 with a
decision later in the year. It is planned to invite tenders for the
construction work under a Design & Build contract possibly around
Sept 2014 if the project is allowed to proceed.
Plus Dane were interested in developing a standardised design
approach and a partnering relationship with a construction company
in order to achieve economies of scale on this and potentially future
sites. The client’s interest in volumetric construction and other
industrialised building systems formed the basis of this D4FC study.
However, the original construction company involved decided to
15
2. Climate Change Risk
Assessment
2a. Design challenges which we
are prioritising and why
In general the anticipated pattern of change is towards
 hotter dryer summers
 milder wetter winters
 stronger winds
 more frequent, more extreme events such as heatwaves and
storms.
Future Climate.
The modelling of future climate is fraught with difficulties: there is still
little agreement amongst climate scientists on models to use, and in
fact climate is an inexact science where there can be large variation
of result based on probability. In addition to this there are different
carbon emission scenarios, which have a large effect on prediction.
Background
In the UK the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
(DEFRA), along with the UK Dept of Energy and Climate Change
(DECC), have produced a range of Climate Projection scenarios
known as UKCP09. These cover a range of years (2030, 2050,
2080), emissions scenarios (low medium high) and probability (33,
50, 66 and 90 percent). The probabilities here are the likelihood of a
certain climate being not exceeded, so the 90 percent model is the
most extreme with only a 1 in 10 chance of being exceeded.
From these scenarios, and by amplifying standard year data, a team
at the University of Exeter have been able to produce predicted
climate as a yearlong hourly set of results that mimic the CIBSE dsy
(design summer year) and try (test reference year) data used by
many pieces of software. The scenarios are in the form of hourly
data, in Energy Plus format (epw) for use in most energy modelling
software.
future weather in the UK?
This study considered the impact risk of projected future climate
change on the buildings under the general areas of the main weather
phenomena:
 Rain
 Temperature
 Wind
The methodology for risk assessment is outlined at the end of this
section (section 2a)
Scenarios considered
This project, concerned with social housing has decided that it is
extreme weather that is the most appropriate to consider, as there is
no escape from its effects from a typological viewpoint, unlike the
workplace, where one could not attend in an extreme event. It is
likely in an extreme event that the home would be considered a
refuge, and thus climate proofing is essential.
16
If system built housing is to be replicated in large numbers, then it is
even more important that the house exceeds the performance criteria
of any given extreme event, not just the ones particular to the site,
but for a range of possible sites. There are also key functions of a
house with regards to shelter that need to be failsafe – notably
resistance to wind, and water and the maintenance of reasonably
comfortable internal conditions
The main weather data files selected in this study were therefore the
Prometheus Liverpool High Emissions 90th percentile DSY
projections for 2030, 2050 and 2080 (see Appendix 2.1). Looking at
a summary table of projections for July in Liverpool shows some
dramatic changes:
July
weather
Precipit
ation
mm
Baseline
DSY
(1970)
2030, high
emissions
90% DSY
2050, high
emissions
90%DSY
2080, high
emissions
90% TRY
57.8
Max.
Db
Temp
oC
23.5
Av.
Db
Temp
oC
15.38
Min.
Db
Temp
oC
9.3
Max.
Humidity
%RH
Min.
Humidity
%RH
Av.
Humidity
%RH
100
36
80.7
47.0
29.4
19.75
12.0
100
35
74.8
39.4
29.9
21.4
13.0
100
39
76.7
33.48
34.6
24.3
15.0
100
39
72.0
focus of this project uses the Hi Em 90% range unless stated
otherwise.
Increased Temperatures
Liverpool will increase in average summer temperature by 9degC
by 2080 – this is an astounding amount. – the maximum
temperature will also increase by over 11 degC.
Reduced Summer rainfall
The average rainfall in July will reduce by 42% in 2080 compared
to the dry summer year of 1970.
Humidity
Humidity will remain high throughout the period, dropping slightly
by 2030, and increasing again in 2050, before falling slightly. The
proximity of the site to the sea, prevents this dropping, beyond
2080, unlike most of the UK.
The summer climate of Liverpool in summary moves to a Parisian
one in 2030, is more like Lyon in 2050, and reaches one similar to
Rome by 2080.
July comparisons based on high emissions 90th percentile DSY data
for Liverpool.
Medium emissions scenarios and 50th percentile DSY projections
were also considered occasionally for comparison, but the main
17
Rain
Predicted Rainfall Patterns
The UK Climate Projection data has been used to generate future
monthly average precipitation values. These values have been used
to calculate the surface water generated at the site for both current
and future events.
Rainfall monthly comparison (mm)
1961-90
2080*
Jan
69
118
Feb
50
84
Mar
61
87
Apr
51
78
May
61
71
Jun
66
68
Jul
65
59
Aug
78
59
Sep
74
84
Oct
77
93
Nov
78
114
Dec
78
127
Total
808
1042
*2080 medium emissions 50%tile
Rainfall data summary
Change
+49
+34
+26
+27
+10
+2
-6
-19
+10
+16
+36
+49
+234
Water Shortage
The average data illustrated shows generally dryer summers, (and
wetter winters) but an overall increase in rainfall. Utilising the DSY
90 percentile data for July we can see that there is a serious issue
with water shortage in the Liverpool region, with data showing a 42%
reduction. However, there may be a bigger issue than this, as the
hourly data seems remarkably conservative, showing less change
than the drought of SE of England 2010 and 2011. In many recent
years already (particularly 1975-77) drought conditions have been a
part of the British summer and it is likely as there is increased
volatility in the climate, that much more extreme periods will be
commonplace, probably beyond the current science of modelling.
However, greater volatility anticipated in the weather and increasing
instances of extreme events will mean increasing incidence of
drought and potential water shortages. This means an increased
likelihood of supply restrictions and disruption. This in turn is likely to
lead to increasing costs for water supply due to increased storage
and management requirements by the water authorities. It is likely
that the house will need some way of storing water, if not for its own
direct use, then most likely for the landscape that surrounds it.
Surface Water Run-off & Flooding
The control of surface water run-off and the prevention of flooding is
dominated by the extreme event. General design principles require
containment of all surface water drainage below ground for all storms
up to a 30 year event. All storms up to a 100 year event should be
contained on site without flooding any habitable space. Data from
the following graph shows that a current 100year event will typically
be a 46 year event by 2080 within a widening probability band.
Interestingly there is no backward projection to show what a future
100 year flood would be equivalent to now.
18

High convective or frontal events: The wettest day of the
year could be significantly increased, hence significant in
levels of attenuation and storage relative to current design
criteria.
The site is regarded as being of low risk to flooding now and in the
future. It is currently identified as Zone 1 by the Environment Agency
and at low risk of flooding from rivers or the sea. The sources of flood
risk identified above are susceptible to the influences of climate
change. The site’s sloping topography reduces the potential for
surface storage and could increase the run-off rate. Other sites in
Liverpool could have much higher risks of pluvial and fluvial flooding.
Projected flood return intervals for Liverpool in winter and summer
months – from ‘Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Rainfall Events
for Selected Towns and Cities’, Met Office July 2010
Current practice is to make some provision for climate change in the
drainage design by increasing the calculated rainfall intensities by 2030% depending on the life of the development.
Two factors within the climate change predictions will have significant
effect on the peak surface water run-off:
 Continued wetting: The increased general precipitation in
winter will increase the level of saturation of the soils,
reducing their ability to retain further rainfall
Due to the projected reductions in return periods, it will be necessary
to design surface water drainage to cope with more intense rainfall
events occurring more frequently. The higher intensity events will
require increased gutter and gulley capacities to deal with higher
flows to mitigate the potential for surface flooding. Sewers and
drains will need to be increased in size to prevent flooding caused by
surcharging. SuDS measures will need to be incorporated to reduce
the rate and volume of runoff and attenuation systems will be more
important in preventing offsite flooding within the sewer network
downstream of the development.
Ultimately, design practice requires us to ensure our site does not
contribute to flooding elsewhere (from the research it appears that
our current design approach covers up to the 2090s) based on
current available data and accepting that this appears to be
conservative.
Subsequently our design approach for the site should be to ensure
that flood flows from offsite do not enter buildings – this can be done
through:
 ground modelling - creating flood paths/basins
 flood barriers
19
It is also noted however that the timber structures being investigated
in this study are particularly susceptible to the effects of flooding,
both for immediate stability and longer term degradation of the fabric.
As the study is considering mass produced products which could be
used on many sites we must also consider options for protecting the
fabric and consider alternative strategies in the event of flood, in
order to increase the possible market available.
The major issues with timber framed housing and water are twofold:
 Pressure collapse: Excluding flood water from the house
increases hydrostatic pressure on the house from outside.
 Inundation of timber: Allow water into the structure, ruins
insulation, delaminates osb and rots timbers.
The house must resist, both of these scenarios.
Ground Conditions
Our knowledge of the area would indicate that the ground conditions
are likely to be a combination of previous fill and clay deposits,
although there is a possibility that some sandstone may be
encountered. Foundation problems eg. subsidence or heave, in
areas of clay soils, particularly those with high shrinkability, are
caused by volume changes in the clay due to changes in moisture
content. Clearly warmer, drier summers and wetter winters will tend
to exaggerate any such effect.
and their insurers and future design must take this into account. The
same will apply to anti heave protection and there will be many more
cases where such measures will be required as clays which
previously were not affected will be in the future.
Care will have to be taken in the specification of trees and other
vegetation on site which may exacerbate the changes in soil moisture
content and volume change. Design must ensure that the future
effects of such trees are taken into consideration, particularly given
the climate change, to make a requirement for deeper foundations,
with more protection than has previously been required.
Extensive water passing through soils can result in the washing out
of finer particles, particularly where these drain away to other areas
and this can in itself result in volume change and effects on
foundations. This can be risk guarded against by controlling service
water infiltration and run off and this is something that needs to be
considered in the context of the drainage design for this and any
other site.
There may be a requirement for retaining walls on this site. Increased
rainfall may result in raising ground water levels and increase the
pressure on the wall. Design consideration will have to be given to
factors such as increased moisture in the soil and the pressure on
the structures due to this factor.
What is clear from this situation is that climate change will require
changes in the criteria used to assess this situation and particularly in
areas where clay is shrinkable. The minimum foundation depth of
properties will generally have to be increased as the effects of
seasonal moisture change will result in effects at greater depth.
There is evidence in the past where hot dry summers have resulted
in significant damage to buildings, the significant cost to consumers
20
depending on different relative humidity characteristics of each
climate type.
Temperature
A medium emissions scenario for 2080 is also similar to a high
emissions scenario for 2050 and so, whilst the general trends appear
the same, the pace of change is unpredictable. It is probable then
that if passive cooling strategies are to be used, more than one kind
of adaptation would be required during the building’s lifespan as
shown in the following psychrometric charts.
Analysis has shown that winter temperatures will rise by a small
amount, so keeping warm will be less of an issue in the future. The
main issue from a thermal point of view is severe overheating in
summer.
The data considered appropriate here is the 90 percentile data, and
the high emissions scenario. This equates to a one in ten year
occurrence in the decade. The University of York has shown that
Climate change is moving North at a rate of at least 20m per day
throughout the year. This equates to over 12km per year. Rough
analysis has shown that summers in Liverpool in 2080 could equate
to that of Rome today.
Bio-climatic Analysis
Future weather files have been used to project Psychrometric Charts
to enable a Bio-Climatic analysis and to try to characterise future
weather patterns and more extreme weather events under various
emissions scenarios, and projected probabilities. This analysis has
shown different characteristics emerging along the time line, such as
a hot-dry climate in 2050 with summers something like Lyon and a
hot-humid climate by 2080 perhaps similar to Rome. This is
important as the potential building solutions could be different
21
Liverpool Psychrometric chart. Baseline climatic data. Design
Summer Year.
Liverpool Psychrometric Chart 2030 Dry Summer Year 90th
Percentile.
This shows, very little need for any environmental control other than
solar control
Here there is a change to a need for a co-ordinated cooling strategy
– thermal mass needed
22
th
Liverpool Psychrometric Chart 2050 Design Summer Year 90th
Percentile
Liverpool Psychrometric Chart; 2080 Design Summer Year 90
Percentile.
This shows another change, with increased humidity over 2030, and
thus the need for more ventilation with a high thermal mass.
Here increased temperature and humidity, makes passive solutions
difficult – ground cooling is one option.
23
Below one can see a direct monthly comparison with the current dry
summer year data, with the extreme data of 2080 DSY with high
emissions in the 90th percentile.
Dry bulb temperature range. Baseline 1970.
Dry bulb temperature range Liverpool 2080 DSY 90 high em.
This shows by 2080 an annual average temperature from 10degC to
16degC with July average rising from 16degC to 24degC.
24
Thermal modelling
Dynamic Simulation Modelling (DSM) was carried out on the selected
Baseline House type with a highly insulated timber frame to analyse
the effects of future climate change on internal temperatures. The
latest version of IES Virtual Engineering Software, version 6.4.0.8,
was used. This is a market-leading software in the field of dynamic
thermal modelling and environmental assessment.
The chosen dwelling has been modelled within the software at 4
orientations, SE-facing, SW-facing, NE-facing and NW-facing to
establish the worst case orientation, so that we can counteract the
worst case internal temperatures. The model has been developed
from the Triangle Architects Option 1 Sketch Proposal drawings to
provide an accurate three-dimensional representation of the actual
building once constructed.
The model uses detailed geometry, real site weather data and
simulates at hourly (or sub-hourly) intervals throughout the entire
year. By analysing the energy performance and internal
temperatures in this manner, the results are as accurate as can be
for a theoretical model.
years. This is so that we can demonstrate the overheating criteria for
both scenarios and future-proof against extreme climate change.
The industry standard that defines limiting internal temperatures is
widely accepted as CIBSE Guide A, Environmental Design. The
guide recommends that 25°C is an acceptable summer indoor design
operative temperature for non-air conditioned buildings, and
recommends limiting the expected occurrence of operative
temperatures above 28ºC to 1% of the annual occupied period.
Indoor operative temperatures that stay at or over 28ºC for long
periods of the day will, except during prolonged hot summer spells;
result in dissatisfaction for many occupants.
We are aiming to provide a Passive solution which will negate/restrict
the need for air conditioning within the internal spaces.
The Thermal model has been generated from the Architect’s
drawings to create a 3D representation of the proposed dwellings.
The following Screenshot demonstrates a visual representation of the
design proposals for the Thermal Modelling Overheating Analysis –
view from South.
The model has been analysed to demonstrate the peak temperatures
throughout the year and the percentage of occupied hours over a
particular temperature. These results have then been compared
against industry standards to assess whether the internal spaces are
classified as overheating or not.
We have run the calculations for two different weather profiles, the
Dry Summer Year (DSY) 2010 and 90th percentile DSY 2080 based
on High CO2 Emissions (from the Exeter University Prometheus
database). The DSY weather profile is based on CIBSE collated
weather data for an infrequent occurring ‘hot’ year with increased
temperatures to represent a hot summer for the specific location,
whilst the 90th percentile DSY 2080 based on High CO2 Emissions is
a future projection of what the climate will be like in 2080 for 1 in 10
We have taken semi-detached dwellings in isolation to represent the
worst case shading scenario and run a simulation throughout a whole
25
th
year for both the DSY 2010 and 90 Percentile 2080 options. We
have analysed 2 options for each weather file as a comparison: a) a
highly insulated timber frame dwelling, based on the SupaWall
construction (the Baseline scheme); and b) a Code 3 compliant
masonry construction. The hottest day profiles for timber frame are
shown below:
Full results are shown in Appendix 2.2. The results can be
summarised as follows:
1. The Masonry construction performs significantly better than
the Timber Frame construction for both weather options in
terms of peak internal temperatures and duration of higher
temperatures.
40
35
Peak 36degC
Temperature (°C)
30
2. In 2010 with Timber frame the worst performing bedroom
overheats (internal temp is above 28˚C) for 2.2% of the
occupied hours. With Masonry construction the worst
performing bedroom only overheats for 0.2% of the occupied
hours. In July/Aug the timber frame bedroom overheats for
9.6% of occupied hours
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
00:00
06:00
12:00
18:00
00:00
Date: Fri 13/Aug
3.
Air temperature: SE - Bedroom 1 (princes-1.aps)
Mean radiant temperature: SE - Bedroom 1 (princes-1.aps)
Dry-bulb temperature: cntr_Liverpool_DSY.epw (cntr_Liverpool_DSY.epw)
Hottest Day 2010 – Baseline scheme (highly insulated timber frame),
SE facing bedroom
In 2080 with Timber frame the worst performing bedroom
overheats (internal temp is above 28˚C) for 16.9% of the
occupied hours. With Masonry construction the worst
performing bedroom only overheats for 11.7% of the
occupied hours. In July/Aug the timber frame bedroom
overheats for 57.4% of occupied hours.
40
35
Peak 40degC
Temperature (°C)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
00:00
06:00
12:00
18:00
00:00
Date: Tue 10/Aug
Air temperature: SE - Bedroom 1 (princes-1.aps)
Mean radiant temperature: SE - Bedroom 1 (princes-1.aps)
Dry-bulb temperature: 2080_Liverpool_a1fi_90_percentile_DSY.epw (2080_Liverpool_a1fi_90_percentile_DSY.epw)
th
Hottest Day 2080 High Emissions 90 percentile – Baseline scheme
(highly insulated timber frame), SE facing bedroom
26
Energy Concept Modelling
Triangle Architects have recently been trialling the ‘Sefaira Concept’
Energy Modelling software under an early adopter programme with
the software company prior to its full commercial release.
The followings tables show annual energy use profiles in 2010 and
th
2080 High Emissions Scenario 90 percentile all with the Baseline
scheme specification (highly insulated timber frame).
The graphs below show energy use for space heating (red), hot
water (yellow), lighting (orange) and equipment (green). Heating is
the only variable. The model shows space heating demand almost
disappearing by 2080. (see Appendix 2.4)
Space Heating & Hot Water
2010
2080 HiEms 90th%
27
Space Heating, Hot Water & Air-Con (25degC set point)
2010
2080 HiEms 90th%
The second pair of tables here introduce air-conditioning (light blue)
with a modest 25degC set point as an indicator of probable
overheating, both now and in 2080. The 2080 shows a particularly
high impact on energy use and with this level of demand we surmise
that air-conditioning would be required to make the house habitable.
28
We also plotted energy and carbon figures from these findings below
(see Appendix 2.4):
Annual Energy Consumption
12,000
10,000
kWh
8,000
Plotting the figures for Annual CO2 Production shows that current
carbon emissions approx 2500kg (without air-con) would rise to
approx 2900kg (with air-con) by 2080, so overheating would mean a
significant worsening of carbon emissions. This is because carbon
emissions for electric powered cooling are higher than for gas fired
heating.
Stripping out other energy uses, we have plotted Annual Space
Heating vs Space Cooling energy requirements:
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2013
Baseline
2030
2050
2080
Annual Space Heating v s Space Cooling
Year
Air Conditioned
2,000
The Annual Energy Consumption chart shows total energy use
without air-con (blue) falling by approx 25% by 2080 (approx
10,000kWh to 7500kWh). However, if air-con is added (pink), the fall
is reduced to around 10% (to approx 9000kWh).
kWh
1,500
1,000
500
0
2013
Annual CO2 Production
Baseline
2030
Air Conditioned
2050
2080
Year
3,500
3,000
This graph shows the space cooling demand (blue) matching the
heating demand (red) by approx 2030 and going on to be about triple
the heating demand by 2080. The ‘carbon crossover’ would of course
be earlier, but unfortunately, the software does not isolate figures for
this detail.
Kg CO2
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2013
2030
2050
2080
Year
Baseline
Air Conditioned
Overall then, it appears from this small energy modelling study that
the carbon crossover from heating to cooling for highly insulated
timber frame housing is not far away. It is a concern that this is not
currently reflected in Part L of the Building Regulations nor
recognised more widely in the housing or architectural sectors as a
potentially looming problem.
29
Thermal Movement
Increase in temperature variations will cause higher differential
movement and, if not considered sufficiently, could lead to the
following:
 Cracking to external masonry panels
 Excessive deflection of the structural frame.
 Excessive deflections to the external envelope
 Cracking to internal finishes
 Cracking of roof seals leading to leaks.
30
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Wind
Hurricane Category
Five
Four
Three
Two
One
Tropical storm
Tropical depression
Windspeed kmh
>252
209 -251
178 - 208
154 -177
119 - 153
63 - 118
0 - 62
Issues of increased windspeed are important for housing, as
avoidance of structural damage is essential.
However, average wind speeds are not the issue here. It is extreme
events that cause, problems, exacerbated by eddies created by
complex urban geometries that are extremely difficult if not
impossible to model. Events in Scotland recently have shown that
ferocity of storms is already increasing. On 3 Jan 2012, windspeed
gusts on the Forth Road Bridge exceeded 150 kmh, the same day in
Liverpool gusts reached 120 kmh. The CP09 datasets here are poor
in this regard: there are no extreme events depicted in windspeed at
all.
We have decided instead to use a different method, looking at a
range of issues structurally, for a range of windspeeds up to and
beyond storm force. This will allow the team to develop strategies of
increasing resistance, which will aid decisions in choice of
component, fixings, and structure.
31
Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) Modelling
We carried out some CFD analysis of the external environment using
IES to assess the effects of air flow around the dwellings once we
have applied the future climate data (see Appendix 2.2)
We have modelled Sketch Plans 1 & 4 as developed by Triangle
Architects to analyse the effects of extreme wind speeds, brought
about by climate change, on different arrangements of dwellings.
Future Climate data predicts that there will be an increased number
of hurricanes and more turbulent weather creating greater wind
speeds in localised areas.
It can be seen that higher wind speeds are shown where there is a
more uniform layout of dwellings, i.e. the orange and red strips going
between the group of detached blocks. Wind speeds are shown to
be up to 20m/s whilst where the dwellings are grouped more
erratically the wind speed is decreased (The velocity profile can be
seen at the bottom of the image).
We then compared this against for Option 4 to see how longer strips
of uninterrupted streets would affect the wind speeds.
We have applied a wind speed of 50m/s (approximately 110mph) the
wind speed typical of a strong hurricane to both options to see where
the problem areas may be with wind-tunnelling.
For the CFD analysis we first looked at Option 1 as shown below:
It can be seen that there are much more strips of orange and red,
demonstrating that the wind tunnelling effects of the long streets is
having an impact on the wind speeds. The square block layout and
more staggered building layout helps to reduce windspeed. We
assume that trees in streets and gardens would have a further
calming effect - so long as they are strong enough to survive and do
not create a danger in themselves.
32
Wind loading
Wind loads on structures are predicted using a statistical model with
a 0.05 probability of being exceeded in a 50 year life cycle.
Current predictions are that the basic wind speed will increase by
10% which will result in an average increase in wind pressures of
approximately 20% (proportional to the square of the wind speed). If
nothing is done, this is enough to ensure failure such as:
a.
b.
c.
d.
Failure of masonry panels
Failure of roof tiles
Failure of entire roof systems
Failure of the structure as a whole due to
disproportionate collapse.
It is worth noting here that natural framing solutions such as timber
behave much better when subject to excessive deflection than more
brittle materials such as masonry.
33
Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA)
METHODOLOGY
A risk register (see Appendix 2.6) was drawn up with main sections
identified as
• Rain
• Wind
• Temperature
Weather ‘Phenomena’ were listed from the weather research and
under each of these we listed possible ‘Effects’. Finally under each
Effect we listed possible ‘Risks’.
Phenomena – Effects - Risks
Risks were characterised under primary area of impact:
• Infrastructure
• Ground stability
• Superstructure
• Building fabric
• Landscape
• Property
• Comfort/economy
• Health
We defined our scoring assessment with the following benchmarks:
Probability
0. <1% chance
1. 1-20%
2. 21-40%
3. 41-60%
4. 61-80%
5. 81-100%
Impact
1. Discomfort/nuisance
2. Minor injury/illness
3. Significant injury/illness
4. Severe injury/illness
5. Death
cost
Superficial repairs/cost
Essential repairs/cost
Major repairs/cost
Economic write off
Structural collapse/unaffordable
Inevitably, there was much debate within the team over the allocation
of scores, particularly on the assessment of probability.
Risks were assessed for 2010 and each of the projected weather
th
years; high emissions scenario, 90 percentile, 2030, 2050 & 2080.
The risk model chosen was:
Risk = probability (0-5) + impact (1-5)
Interpretation of Risk
8 - 10
High
5-7
Medium
1-4
Low
34
RISKS IDENTIFIED
The assessment identified 108 risks. Some of these were the same
risks from different sources eg. different flooding scenarios resulting
in the same water damage. Of these, 63 were assessed as at
‘medium or high level by 2080. These are considered serious enough
to warrant attention in our design options. The full risk assessment is
included in Appendix 2.6
In summary the main groups of risks identified are:
• Temperature:
o Overheating risks to health, comfort, landscape and
building fabric
• Rain:
o Flooding risks to superstructure, building fabric and
health
o Driving rain risks to building fabric
o Groundwater risks to ground stability and
superstructure
o Drought risks to landscape
• Wind:
o Wind speed risks to superstructure, building fabric,
landscape and health
The greatest number of risks are associated with rain though many
of these are expressing different levels of severity outcomes from the
same cause. The greatest number of high risks are associated with
overheating due to the direct impact on health.
35
2b. Shortfalls in Data and Data
Processing Tools
Weather Data
Rain
The CP09 datasets appear to be conservative for peak rainfall and
there is a lack of data for extreme events. There is no direct
projection of a future 100 year event for example. Met Office figures
show that the current record events, all recorded within the last 30
years are in excess of the 20-30% increased allowance made in
current practice. Whilst it is recognised that there is ultimately a ‘cap’
in the maximum amount of rain possible which can be held in the air,
this amount is likely to increase with temperature increases if relative
humidity remains at a similar level.
Wind
The CP09 datasets here are poor in this regard:
extreme events depicted in windspeed at all.
there are no
CFD
The external CFD analysis package is quite limited within IES. We
have had to simplify the models to ensure that we have enough
computer processing power to run an accurate model. The models
are therefore set up with a fairly large mesh grid (1m) and exclude
surrounding areas for simplification. This has led to decreased
accuracy of results as we could not include for the impacts of the
surrounding buildings and the wind shading/tunnelling effects these
may have. Nevertheless we are able to demonstrate some clear
patterns in principle and will continue with this method on the design
options.
We are also limited to 50m/s as the maximum wind speed, in reality
hurricanes can produce gusts of up to 75m/s, which would obviously
have a larger impact on the site.
We had hoped to establish links with post-graduate students at the
University of Manchester to carry out more sophisticated study of
wind patterns but despite an interesting discussion about the project,
this was not forthcoming. They were only able to offer services on a
commercial basis for which we had no budget under this study.
Computer Modelling
Energy Concept Modelling
Thermal Modelling
The new Sefaira Concept software appears to be a good
comparative energy modelling tool for early stage design options. We
have been able to compare iterations for alternative orientation,
insulation, simplified thermal mass, glazing size etc very quickly and
will continue with this through the design option studies. It is,
however, difficult to gauge the energy & carbon assessments against
more widely recognised calculation methodologies such as SAP and
we will try to calibrate it against SAP software in the next stage. We
had to add Prometheus weather files to the Sefaira database by
arrangement with the software company as the software is all in the
‘cloud’. There are other detailed issues with the use of software, such
as accessing the full carbon breakdown that were slightly restrictive.
We will follow this up with the company who have generally been
very responsive to requests and suggestions.
The IES software used is very accomplished at carrying out internal
temperature analysis on this scale. We can achieve a range of
outputs including, internal air temperature, dry resultant temperature
and mean radiant temperature; and compare these against the
external temperature on any given day of the year. We can change a
number of variables including any type of construction, occupancy
profiles, lighting loads, shading profiles and carry out sun path
analysis throughout a year and apply to the model.
We may come across some limitations once we have explored more
intricate passive cooling strategies but currently the software is
performing as required.
36
2c. Other features significant to the adaptation strategy
Timber Building Systems Review
Product Research
Product research was carried out to identify the range of timber building systems available on the market. These were then grouped and
categorised and representative products selected for comparative appraisal (see Appendix 2.7). These included:
•
•
•
•
•
Timber frame closed panel
Cross laminated timber
SIPs
Volumetric
Hybrid (pod + panel)
- Maple’s ‘SupaWall’ system
- KLH
- Kingspan ‘TEK’ system
- Bramall’s ‘Evolve’ system
- Elements Europe
For appraisal these were also compared against:
• generic ‘open panel’ timber frame
• traditional ‘brick & block’ cavity wall
37
Appraisal
An appraisal matrix was designed by the team with client input. Several criteria were grouped under each of seven headings:
•
Time & Economy
•
Deliverability – current
•
Deliverability – future
•
Flexibility of Design
•
Adaptability – spatial
•
Adaptability – climate change
•
Performance
The appraisal matrix provides a useful database of comparative product information and provides a framework to assess the value of relevant
features to specific project needs.
After evaluating the five typologies presented in the report, the overall conclusion is that there is no universal answer to what prefabricated timber
construction system is going to survive the trials of climate change better than any other. All the systems evaluated in the report have shown to
have both strengths and weaknesses, with no particular system proving to be significantly superior or inferior to the rest.
The volumetric and hybrid systems are undoubtedly better suited in situations where time and cost are a priority, as they have the highest degree
of prefabrication compared to other systems, increasing efficiency and thereby reducing costs. However, as a result of the high degree of
prefabrication the systems are less flexible and adaptable than other systems, both of which are key issues when designing for future climate
change – the main aim of the study. Any provisions for future climate change would need to be considered at
a design stage and implemented accordingly. Hybrid systems are more flexible than volumetric ones, as they utilise repetition of certain elements
rather than the whole building, enabling a certain degree of flexibility in the design whilst keeping invariable components such as bathrooms and
kitchens fully prefabricated. Both systems are better suited in situations of high repetition, such as housing developments, but would be senseless
in single dwelling projects or schemes with many individual designs.
Looking at the flexibility and adaptability aspects of each system, the two panellised systems, cross-laminated timber and structural insulated
panels, emerge as the stronger options. Neither of these systems are bound by the same rigidity and pre-determined design as the threedimensional prefabricated systems, and therefore have greater flexibility not only in the design process, but in terms of later modification. The
volumetric system in particular is restricted in many aspects, many of which are the same aspects that earlier saved on time and cost. Systems
that are uniformly strong structurally may lend themselves more to adaptation strategies to handle climate change than others, as they may easily
accommodate shading structures and facade alterations.
Resilience is a key factor when combating future climate change, as the increased severity of environmental impacts, be it water, wind or heat, will
test and push the building system to its limits. Cross-laminated timber buildings come marginally out on top in this instance, mainly due to being
constructed out of massive timber, and therefore less sensitive to changes compared to other systems, and overall more durable. However, the
38
more responsive systems, closed panel timber frame and SIPs, are increasingly engineered towards performance, achieving lower u-values and
implementing more technological advancements and enhanced materials.
After conducting further research into the selected typologies, it has emerged that certain systems are not suitable for use in low-rise residential
housing schemes. Cross-laminated timber systems are ideally suited for medium-rise buildings or more complex engineered structures, as the
vast amount of material used in the system is superfluous in buildings with fewer storeys and therefore represent an unnecessary cost increase
compared to other timber systems. Similarly, the hybrid construction systems lends themselves to larger schemes or mass production, where high
performance areas such as kitchens and bathrooms do in fact benefit from being prefabricated due to the number of units required.
Although the various systems differ in terms of strengths and weaknesses, it is clear to see that they all have certain things in common. Most of
the manufacturers, to a varying degree, have implemented strategies towards making their systems more sustainable and climate-friendly.
However, the focus appears to be concentrated on how to make buildings more sustainable and lessen, or in some instances, prevent further
climate change. The issue being researched in this report focuses more on how buildings may cope with the change that is ahead, as scientific
sources state that escalating change is inevitable. Most building systems and their manufacturers are focusing on the here and now, often not
taking into consideration that climatic circumstances are likely to change during the building’s lifetime. Longer life spans of over 60 years are a
sought-after trait, which many manufacturers pride themselves in having, yet they seem to fail to realise that the longer a building stands, the more
extreme conditions it will be subjected to compared to what it was designed for. Several manufacturers do not have recycling schemes in place,
stating that once the building has been handed over after completion, it is no longer the manufacturer’s responsibility.
39
Further investigations
The team also investigated some further hybrid construction systems and two of particular interest were:
 Hembuild
 RuralZed
Hembuild by Lime Technology
Hembuild is a factory produced, off-site system incorporating the structural frame into a timber cassette, creating a building envelope solution for 1
– 3 storey buildings (see Appendix 2.9). This is pre-insulated with Tradical Hemcrete which is a bio-composite building material made from hemp
shiv (the woody core of Industrial Hemp) and a lime based binder called Tradical HB. Hemcrete has the advantage of providing insulation and
thermal mass into lightweight construction. It is a breathable material, gives excellent humidity control and has phase change properties. It has
negative embodied carbon. The panellised Hembuild system overcomes many of the deliverability concerns associated with slow drying out times
for site applied Hemcrete.
Hembuild panels on site
Typical Hembuild breathable wall construction details
40
RuralZed by Zed Homes
RuralZed is a pre-fabricated timber frame kit house system (see Appendix 2.10). It is designed for rural situations but the team felt it had wider
low-rise appeal in principle. The system aimed to:
‘combine the best aspects of pre-fabricated timber frame kits with thermally massive heavyweight construction capable of storing winter
solar gain whilst staying cool in hot summers. Each building is designed and engineered to minimise heat and power requirements to a point
where they can be met by renewable energy sources harvested on site.’
The RuralZed concept
Interesting features were the adaptability of cladding and roof options, integration of services and an additive approach to thermal mass elements
internally. Whilst this system included many good features, we found the structural system to be too inflexible with internal timber posts at quite
close centres which disrupted the planning of the house. There was also no specific design response to flood risk.
41
Preferred Options for Adaptation
The study aimed to develop two options for adaptation design work.
 A Near to Market strategy
 A Future Product strategy
Originally based on the appraisal work we intended this to progress with closed panel (SupaWall) as a ‘Near to Market’ option, and volumetric
(Evolve) volumetric or a Hybrid version as a ‘Future Product’.
However, further to the completion of the Building Systems Review, a number of factors conspired to change the team’s view. Funding for the
development was squeezed due to new government policies coming into force and continuing pressures on the social housing sector, and neither
Maple SupaWall nor Evolve were able to achieve an acceptable price for the client. The Evolve system factory was also subsequently closed due
to decreasing and deferred orders across the region as the housing crisis impacted more.
The client therefore decided that the project should proceed on the basis of adaptations to standard construction methods (brick & block or timber
frame) but with the study continuing to make recommendations to provide climate resilient design adaptations for Near to Market solutions. The
team were also increasingly interested in the flexibility offered by Hybrid solutions for a Future Product.
42
3. Adaptation Strategy
Overview
The study adopted two adaptation strategies for design development:
o
o
Strategy 1 - Near to Market
Strategy 2 – Future Product
‘Strategy 1 – Near to Market Adaptations’ was intended to identify climate change adaptation measures which could be taken on by the project
team for inclusion in the actual development. These would have to be affordable, practicable, acceptable to the regulatory authorities, manageable
by the client (as landlord) and future residents, and acceptable to the developers in design terms.
‘Strategy 2 – Future Product’ was intended to create a concept design for an industrialised housing system which could deliver all of the client’s
design demands whilst being resilient and more completely adaptable to climate change.
A SWOT analysis (see Appendix 3.1) reviewed the list of adaptation measures suggested by the TSB’s ‘Checklist 3’ and categorised them for
‘Near to Market’ and Future Product’ potential as:
 Strong potential – worth further study
 Possible – worth looking at
 No chance – heavily constrained
Constraining factors were recorded for the ‘no chance’ items and design stage tasks were allocated to team members accordingly. This analysis
was used for both strategies.
43
3.1 Strategy 1 – Near to Market Adaptations
Background
The study originally identified that adaptation of a highly insulated closed panel timber frame system such as Maple SupaWall or equivalent would
be investigated for the Near to Market proposals. However due to economic pressures the client decided that specification should be open ended
for contractor choice to achieve Code Level 3. Experience shows that in the current market this will mean either brick & block construction or open
panel timber frame. The following methodology was therefore used to determine what adaptation measures could be made within these new
constraints.
METHODOLOGY
A three stage process was devised to:
 identify strategies & proposals
 carry out appraisal & decision
 review & audit barriers to implementation
Strategies & Proposals
Firstly the potential adaptation measures from the SWOT Analysis were categorised in a matrix format for a series of ideas workshops. Rain,
Wind & Temperature issues were considered for impact under Interior Shell, Exterior Shell and Masterplan design categories. Initial suggestions
from these workshops were drawn up into a spreadsheet and a series of Strategies and Proposals were listed alongside each measure to form a
Longlist & Decision Audit (see Appendix 3.2) which commenced in the following format:
Problem
Adaptation
Measure
strategy
proposal
Keeping cool internal
Shading manufactured
reduce solar gain with external fabric shades fixed to
window frame
use timber windows - add shades in future
No.
1
Example extract from Longlist & Decision Audit – stage 1: identifying strategies & proposals
Appraisal & Decisions
Each proposal was evaluated by the team on a ‘traffic light’ system for ‘cost’ and ‘effectiveness’ and a recommendation made to the client.
Detailed designs and costings were not carried out at this stage but technical advice was given and all items discussed in a group setting with the
client and with reference to the CCRA findings. Reasons for decisions were recorded and/or further actions identified pending each decision.
44
key:
cost
low/none
medium
high
Cost - Now
£/house
Cost - Future Effectiveness Recommend
£/house
?
effectiveness
very
partly
none/little
recommend
yes
consider
no
implement
yes
maybe
no
n/a
Client
decision to
implement
now?
Client
decision for
future
strategy?
Main Reason? Comment/ Actions
window type undecided, may be uPVC, considered not
robust enough, prefer fix to brick option
Example extract from Longlist & Decision Audit – stage 2: appraisal & decision
The appraisals were carried out and revisited over an extended period to allow for further investigation and client reflection on items as issues
were raised.
Barriers to Implementation
The main reasons for not carrying forward recommendations were also logged under a number of set headings to record the barriers to
implementation.
Barriers to
implementat
ion?
capital cost
low risk item planning
- not worth constraint
doing
highways/
sewers
constraint
managemen maintenanc conflicting
developmen design
t constraint e burden
performance t timetable conflict
demand
aesthetic/
cultural
objections
alternative
measure
selected
buildability/
availability
Example extract from Longlist & Decision Audit – stage 3: audit of barriers to implementation
45
3.1a. The Strategy
The initial strategy was developed through the ideas workshops. Rain, Wind & Temperature issues were considered for impact under Interior
Shell, Exterior Shell and Masterplan design categories.
IDEAS
MATRIX
WORKSHOP
Rain
-
A. Interior Shell
B. Exterior Shell
C. Masterplan
- Spatial arrangement, superstructure,
foundations, finishes, fittings,
services
- Cladding, weathertightness, external
fixtures
- Site layout, orientation, massing,
landscape, site services
Foundations – subsidence/heave
flooding,
drought,
increased
changeability
Loading from ponding
Tanking
Extended wetting – drying out provision,
replaceable, robustness,
Flood tolerance – materials, strength,
location of services
Detail design for extreme rain –
thresholds/joints
Retaining wall and slope stability
Extended wetting – robust materials, barrier
solutions, sacrificial materials,
Drainage design & attenuation
Rain water storage
Gutter/roof/upstand design – capacity,
overflow, shape
Soakaway design
Flood defence – strength, barrier solutions
Infrastructure
Flood tolerance –
Foundations – root protection, planting
location
Tanking
SUDs
Flood defence – diversion routes, barriers
Wind
-
Lateral stability
heat, humidity?
Building form
Street trees
extreme wind,
stagnation
Temperature
-
Fixing standards – walls & roofs, features
Air movement – room heights, layout of
volumes
Shading devices
Shade from planting
Elevation design – daylight v overheating
External respite space
Thermal mass in lightweight construction
– room use patterns, permanent
materials, temporary materials
Ventilation – secure & bug free windows &
vents
Shade for car parking
Thermal movement
Orientation
Thermal movement
Planting & paving to modify micro-climate &
heat island effect
Orientation
Narrow or wide frontage house types?
46
Ideas Workshop Matrix
The matrix approach was a useful tool in structuring design thinking towards integrated solutions and the outcomes formed the basis of the
recommended Longlist. This also helped to inform ideas for the Strategy 2 – Future Product designs.
The full ‘Longlist & Decision Audit’ (Appendix3.2) included overall, 118 potential adaptation proposals which were recommended for
implementation and future strategy. Some of these were iterations or alternative versions of the same strategy eg. Different structural implications
depending on which construction system was adopted, or different types of shading device which could be fitted, etc.
The client was most interested in recommendations which could be implemented now even if some of these were future proofing measures. For
this reason, the Longlist recorded decisions for either immediate implementation or future strategy.
Immediate Implementation Strategy
A rigorous appraisal process was undertaken with the client and the team to narrow down the recommendations to those which could be achieved
within the practical and budgetary constraints of the development. Of the 118 Longlist recommendations, 26 have been accepted for inclusion in
tender designs & specifications. These measures are set out in Shortlist 1 – Implementation Strategy below.
47
SHORTLIST 1 - IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY
FINAL revA
10/02/2014
Problem
Adaptation
Measure
strategy
proposal
No.
longlist
ref
Comment/ Actions
Keeping cool internal
Shading planting
ensure tree selection is
sustainable
specify climate resilient
tree species
1
24
LA will specify suitable types in tender
information.
Secure and bug
free night
ventilation
encourage internal air
movement/cross
ventilation by spacing
of windows
increase air volume
and allow greater
stratification of air
temperature in
bedrooms
encourage cross/stack
ventilation through
rooms into the stairwell
provide 2 windows spaced
apart in larger rooms
where possible
2
29
Arch has included in current drawings
300mm higher ceilings in
bedrooms with raised
bottom chord to trussed
rafters
3
31
SE confirmed possible minor strengthening of
trussed rafters but no significant effect on
performance or cost. Arch to show on tender
drgs.
rooflight above stairwell for
night ventilation with pole
operation
4
33
private green space for
all residents
private rear gardens to all
properties
5
50
TRI advised rooflight area approx 0.7m2
should achieve approx 6AC/hr purge ventilation
(assuming 0.5m/s air speed). This could be
achieved by 2no. Narrow (between truss) velux
lights or 1no. wider rooflight with trimming to
trusses. Agreed to include 1no. narrow
rooflight (eg. Velux ref C06, 0.55m x 1.18m)
between trusses due to cost. This should
achieve around 4AC/hr. Arch to show on drgs
and check with planners.
as LA & Arch drawings
communal green
amenity space
provide amenity space in
'green street'
6
51
as LA & Arch drawings
Interrelationship
with ceiling height
Keeping cool spaces around
buildings
Access to external
space overheating relief
48
Shade from
planting
reduce thermal
absorption of paving
specify cool paving - high
reflectivity and permeable
7
53
provide shade in
communal space
reposition street trees in
'green street' to shade
amenity areas
increase no of garden
trees to min 1no./house
8
54a
permeable not accepted for highways
adoptions, maybe good for rear gardens - LA
has proposed light coloured flags (Charcon
Appalachian & Ecopave) with high recycled
aggregate content and optional permeable
spacer bedding system (Sudsflow). Agreed to
include flags in tender spec and permeable
where possible (non-adopted areas) in
conjunction with CE design.
LA to review design
9
55
LA to review design
option 1 - 100mph
wind design speed (up
to category 2
hurricane)
prevent ingress of
water
structural specification
10
62
SE to inc in spec
pay close attention to detail
and finishes
11
67
arch to review detail improvements possible &
performance specificationstandards/exposure
categories for tender information. If Liverpool
was to change category for wind driven rain
from Zone 2: Moderate (33-56.5l/m2/spell) to
Zone 3: Severe 56.5-100l/m2/spell) - consider
recessed window & door reveals, projecting
cills with drips, extended eaves, greater laps
and fixings to roof and cladding, wider clear
cavities, avoidance of fully filled cavities?
increase gutter &
downpipe capacity by
30%
alter gutter profile to
increase cross-sectional
area, increase downpipe
diameter, provide 'spitters'
to discharge excess flows
12
77
Deepflow now included
increase shading from
garden trees
Fixings and
weatherproofin
g
Fixing standards walls, roofs
Detail design for
extremes - rain thresholds/ joints
Construction materials
behaviour
Performance in
extremes - rain
49
Drainage external
Drain design
increase system
capacity
provide larger pipe sizes,
increase inlet size
capacity, reduce
impermeable surface to
reduce load on drains
13
80
Drainage building related
Gutter/ roof/
upstand design
change gutter profile,
increase number of rwps
14
83
Flood Avoidance
Environment
Agency guidance
-location,
infrastructure
avoid developing in known
flood zones (even if site
has been previously
developed)
15
84
Flood Resistance/
resilience
Flood defence temporary products etc
enlarge gutter capacity
- deepflow. Min 1 no
downpipe/house
elevation
select development
sites in accordance
with flood zoning
provided by the EA,
situate critical
infrastructure outside
of flood zones
protect interiors from
shallow flooding up to
approx 750mm
set back window & door
frames from brickwork
face - add flood barrier
system in future
install no return valves to
sewer connections
16
87
17
89
construct separate foul &
surface water sewer
system
18
90
protect against sewer
leakage
protect against sewer
leakage
CE confirmed EA guidance not required
beyond water quality and discharge rate
considerations. Pipe and inlet sizes are
determined by contributing area (climate
change allowance could be applied to run-off to
provide uprated inlet and pipes to suit future
conditions). Reduction of impermeable
surfacing will all help to reduce load on drains
even if site is generally made on clay as
expected. Drainage system capacity will be
increased over existing combined sewer
system which will be replaced with separate
surface and foul water systems to current
standards.
deepflow' system to be included in tender
specification
Site is currently identified as low risk, Zone 1 by
the EA. CE advised early consultation is
required with the EA to understand implications
of the development on flood risk. Consultation
periods vary but EA aim to respond within 21
days. Make allowance in timetable for revisions
to site layout in line with recommendations.
Arch drawings/spec
CE advised where surcharged sewers are
expected, non-return valves can be installed to
protect houses/systems from flooding - either
on netwrok (adopted) or individual houses
(unadopted). It may be necessary to provide
storage for the anticipated duration of the
surcharged event. CE to include in tender
proposals for individual houses.
CE to inc in design. Existing combined system
will be replaced.
50
Flood tolerant
construction
Flood tolerant
products and
materials
ensure wall strength
suitable for 1m flood
depth
non-corroding
materials in
construction
finishes which can dry
out effectively and not
water damaged
SE check standard
construction for strength?
19
93
SE to confirm in spec
stainless steel fixings &
wall ties
20
95
SE/Arch drawings/spec
screed finish to ground
floors
21
98
Arch drawings/spec
finishes which can dry
out effectively and not
water damaged
use closed cell insulation
in walls and floors below
750mm AFFL
22
99
Arch drawings/spec
finishes which can dry
out effectively and not
water damaged
dpm under screed instead
of under whole slab
23
100
Arch drawings/spec
ensure effective
connection between
dpm & dpc
finishes which can dry
out effectively and
reduced water damage
taped joints
24
102
Arch drawings/spec
skirtings to be treated SW
and painted all round - no
mdf
25
104
Arch drawings/spec. skirtings to be SW but not
treated and not painted all round, No mdf at
low level
lift vulnerable kitchen
fittings above shallow
flood level
kitchen units on 100mm
plastic legs
26
110
Arch drawings/spec
51
Commentary
The measures approved for implementation will be taken forward by inclusion in tender drawings and specifications for a Design & Build contract.
In this form of tender there is a difficult balance to make between defining preferences through the Design Intent information and over-specifying
performance requirements which could affect the cost or delivery programme. The client was naturally cautious in making these decisions.
The general measures approved can be summarised as:




Overheating – Improvements to ventilation in the buildings have been accepted including increased windows, stairwell rooflights and
raised bedroom ceiling heights. In the landscape there is increased green amenity space, trees are specified as more resilient species and
are better positioned, and cool & permeable paving is specified for private gardens. No thermal mass recommendations have been
accepted.
Flooding – Several good practice flood tolerant detailed construction measures were accepted but the client considered this a low risk
area. More significant proposals to increase site drainage capacity or introduce comprehensive SUDs and swales were not accepted. The
use of specialist flood resistant products in the buildings was generally rejected.
Water conservation – no measures were accepted other than the usual Code 3 specifications for sanitaryware fittings. Rainwater
harvesting was firmly resisted
Wind damage – a best practice performance specification for wind design speeds was accepted and best practice architectural detailing
around windows, eaves etc. Higher levels of wind design speeds were not accepted.
The agreed measures relevant to Planning were included in those drawings (see sample in Appendix 3.3). Other more detailed measures will be
added to the tender information package in due course.
3.1b. Timescales & Triggers for Implementation
Future Strategy
Of the 118 Longlist recommendations, 19 were considered suitable for future strategy. These measures are set out in Shortlist 2 – Future Strategy
in the table below.
52
SHORTLIST 2 - FUTURE STRATEGY
FINAL revA
10/02/2014
Problem
Adaptation
Measure
strategy
proposal
No.
Longlist
ref No.
Comment/ Actions
trigger
Keeping cool
- internal
Shading manufactured
reduce solar gain
with external
timber shutters brick & block
increase no. cavity
ties x2 adjacent
openings, add
external timber
shutters in future
strengthen timber
frame adjacent
openings, add
external timber
shutters in future
install glazing units
with solar control
glass in future
maintenance cycle
1
8
2
9
3
14
SE confirmed no extra
strengthening required.
Cost, maintenance and
appearance issues. Prefer
to retrofit when necessary
SE confirmed no extra
strengthening required.
Cost, maintenance and
appearance issues. Prefer
to retrofit when necessary
simple retrofit in future if
required
strengthen roof in
future & add green
roof in future
4
18
modest temperature
rise - already
borderline. Increase
in tenant complaints
over comfort & health
modest temperature
rise - already
borderline. Increase
in tenant complaints
over comfort & health
modest temperature
rise - already
borderline. Increase
in tenant complaints
over comfort & health
roof covering
replacement cycle
unless significant
overheating problems
before then
include for
retractable internal
insect blinds on
windows and
rooflights
5
30
reduce solar gain
with external
timber shutters timber frame
Green roofs/
transpiration
cooling
Secure and
bug free night
ventilation
reduce solar gain
with solar control
glazing to SW &
SE elevations future
strengthen roof
structure in future
& add green roof
in future
protect opening
lights against
insects entering
Cost of structure now. SE
confirmed proposed
structure could be wholly
upgraded in future retrofit if
required for light/moderate
system
draw curtains now, consider
in future
increase in insect
problem & tenant
complaints. No need
to link to maintenence
cycle
estimated
timetable
?
5-10 years
5-10 years
5-10 years
50 years +
20-30
years
53
Keeping cool
- spaces
around
buildings
Shading
parking/
transport
infrastructure
provide shading
structures to
private parking
spaces - future
Structural
stability above ground
Lateral
stability -wind
loading
standards
increase building
stability
Fixings and
weatherproofi
ng
Fixing
standards walls, roofs
Construction
-materials
behaviour
Detail design
for extremes
- wind - 3
step
approach
Performance
in extremes wind - air
tightness,
strength,
suction/
pressure
allow space for
future timber
louvred shading
structures in SE &
SW facing front
gardens - provide
shading structures
in future
introduce
additional bracing
elements now or in
future
6
57
arch to ensure space is
available in detailed design
modest temperature
rise - already
borderline. Increase
in tenant complaints
over comfort & health
20-30
years
7
60
Cost. Retrofit considered
better cost/risk ratio. SE to
advise what structural retrofit
could be applied in future.
extreme
wind
projections
unclear
option 2 - 125mph
wind design speed
(category 3
hurricane)
option 3 - 150mph
wind design speed
( cat 4/5 hurricane)
increase number
and strength of
fixings now or in
future
increase number
and strength of
fixings
8
63
9
64
ditto
ditto
as above
as above
10
65
Cost. Retrofit considered
better cost/risk ratio. SE to
advise what structural retrofit
could be applied in future.
Cost. Retrofit considered
better cost/risk ratio. SE to
advise what structural retrofit
could be applied in future.
Cost. Retrofit considered
better cost/risk ratio. SE to
advise what structural retrofit
could be applied in future.
only likely in response
to severe future
threat/ experience of
structural problems
due to high winds
ditto
ditto
ditto
roof design to Cat
3 hurricane (winds
speed up to
131mph)
extra fixings,
different roof types
11
70
Cost. Retrofit considered
better cost/risk ratio. SE to
advise what structural retrofit
could be applied in future.
ditto
ditto
frame & roof
design wind
speeds increased
increase structural
rigidity
1215
71-74
ditto
ditto
protect windows
and glazed doors
from flying debris
add wind
protection shutter
to windows &
glazed doors
16
75
Cost. Retrofit considered
better cost/risk ratio. SE to
advise what structural retrofit
could be applied in future.
cost, consider for future
retrofit
increase in frequency
of high wind events
and damage
experienced
ditto
ditto
54
Water supply/
conservation
Rain water
storage
allow for future
installation of
rainwater recycling
provide secondary
distribution
pipework to toilets,
washing machines
etc., increase truss
strength for
header tanks,
designate area on
external works
plan to install
underground tank
(outside zone of
influence from
foundations)
17
79
Flood Resistance/
resilience
Flood
defence temporary products etc
protect interiors
from shallow
flooding up to
approx 750mm
set back window &
door frames from
brickwork face add flood barrier
system in future
provide air brick
covers - £30/m ext
wall length?
18
87
19
88
protect wall
cavities from
flooding
CE advised M&E comment
required on layout of internal
distribution systems.
Consideration of no. of WC's
fed - eg. 1no. WC not
efficient use of harvested
water; several WC's more
efficient but increased cost
of pipework etc. Space for
future tank positions to be
considered above or below
ground and proximity to
foundations. Could be
effective to double up
pipework to allow future
connection without
disruption to property.
Consider installation of
stillage for future header
tank. Client is not interested
in installing RWH in the near
future for practical reasons
and considers future retrofit
can be undertaken in future
refurbishment cycle if there
is a change in priorities.
Cost of duplicate pipework
will therefore not be included
at this stage.
Arch drawings/spec
increasing frequency
of dry summers, cost
of water supply and
tenant complaints
20-30
years
increasing frequency
of shallow flooding
events
20-30
years
cost, low risk, provide in
future
increasing frequency
of shallow flooding
events
20-30
years
55
Commentary
The client has not agreed a planned timetable for future implementation but has in the main adopted a ‘wait and see’ policy. Triggers to investment
in these measures are foreseen as being responsive to actual experienced climate change, ie. The evidence of risk events and a timetable for
those occurrences is not strong enough for them to commit at the moment. None of the items involved immediate costs. It is hoped that the client
will consider establishing a periodic review structure for looking at these issues, perhaps also across their wider stock, to avoid losing the lessons
learned from this study.
The designers’ role in practice therefore has meant checking structural or spatial suitability in the proposed design to allow adaptation measures to
be implemented without hindrance in the future. Recommendations which required more intensive work being undertaken now, mainly became a
‘change it when we need to’ policy eg. Where strengthening for possible future wind loads was proposed it was felt that full retrofit and structural
upgrading offered a better cost/risk ratio than strengthening now.
The Psychrometric analysis in section 2 suggested possible timetable for passive control of overheating based on the high emissions scenario 90th
percentile year:




2010 DSY This shows, very little need for any environmental control other than solar control
o Shading devices and/or solar control glass may be required soon. Window maintenance cycle is typically 15 years????
2030 Here there is a change to a need for a co-ordinated cooling strategy – thermal mass needed.
o Retrofit of thermal mass is technically very difficult and therefore is not proposed. Realistically, this should be included in the
original construction. This may change with future technologies.
2050 This shows another change, with increased humidity over 2030, and thus the need for more ventilation with a high thermal mass.
o Natural ventilation can be increased slightly through replacement windows with larger opening lights. A significant increase could
only be achieved through additional security measures (eg. Grilles) to allow wider opening of windows at night etc, and this may not
be acceptable culturally.
2080 Here increased temperature and humidity, makes passive solutions difficult – ground cooling is one option.
o Retrofit of ground cooling is very difficult and no ducting or other measures have been proposed below the ground floor slab.
A best estimate is suggested for future timetable against each item in the table above. We believe key triggers to the general problem areas
identified are likely to include:
 Overheating – Tenant dissatisfaction & complaints rising
 Flooding – recurrence of flooding events at close intervals
 Water conservation – increasing water supply costs & tenant dissatisfaction
 Wind damage – onset of structural problems
56
3.1c. Cost Analysis
The team decided that cost analysis and advice should be a process considered in increasing detail during the study period. The cost consultant
was also acting as Employer’s Agent and therefore a key advisor to and representative of the client. For this reason the cost consultant
contributed to early stage background research and ideas meetings and also assisted in structuring the Climate Change Risk Assessment. During
the Appraisal stage, relative costs were considered during appraisal of the Longlist and a ‘traffic light’ colour coding scheme was implemented to
grade each adaptation measure as high, medium, low cost, as described above (see 3.1). This helped to filter the recommendations alongside
other considerations and the Longlist was (through several iterations) whittled down to the final Shortlist (see 3.1a)
The Cost Benefit or Lifecycle Analysis approach to evaluating costs was ruled out as almost all of the adaptations proposed offered a benefit to
the end user (the tenant) and not to the client. The key criteria in the current funding regime is Capital Cost. Whilst tenants would enjoy the benefit
of solar shading, good ventilation etc. the Client would be able to construct less houses and this would affect future funding provision. Therefore,
‘near to market’ options must compete effectively for limited funding, and be cost neutral or offer minimal cost for maximum benefit. This is a
difficult area as there are obvious benefits to adopting an appropriate Lifecycle analysis in providing long term value for money and low carbon
solutions for public expenditure but this would need the development of a new business model for the sector and new methodology for
assessment, both of which are outside the scope or expertise of this study.
A cost report was produced with a detailed commentary on the Potential Adaptation Measures. This includes a representation of the Client’s view
of the proposals. The following table taken from this shows the final round of assessment indicating the final measures accepted and rejected with
detailed costs alongside. Full Cost Report is attached as Appendix 3.5.
ADAPTATION COST TABLE
ITEM (Report Reference)
ADDITIONAL
SCHEME COST
COMMENTS
Optifloat Green
£5,750.00
Solar-E Glass
£35,200.00
Future
measure
Client decided to consider use of solar control glass in first round
of window replacements.
Ensure trees sustainable - Specify climate resillient tree
species
£0.00
Included
We have been advised by the Landscape Architect that species
which are adaptable to changes in temperature, deluge and
drought in terms of rainfall are no more expensive than ones that
are not. Client has included.
Encourage internal air movement - Provide 2 windows
spaced apart in larger rooms where possible
£114,300.00
Included
Cost of the 254 additional windows to living rooms, kitchens and
bedroom, to ensure all large rooms have two windows,has been
included in the Welsh Streets scheme.
Reduce Solar Gain - Include for
Solar Control Glass
57
Increase air volume - 300mm higher ceilings in bedrooms
with raised bottom chord to trussed rafters
£222,300.00
Included
This has been included in the tender documentation. Design to be
incorporated subject to a competitive price being received from
Contractors.
Cross stack venitlation - Rooflight above stairwell for night
ventilation with pole operation - 1 No. narrow (between
trusses) Velux Ref. C06 (0.55m x 1.18m)
£87,450.00
Included
Rooflights have been included in the Welsh Streets scheme.
Thermal mass - Medium weight brick and block
construction
Excluded
On a scheme of this size both Timber Frame and Traditional forms
of construction would be of a similar cost but Timber Frame would
have a faster build time. The client has decided to leave
construction method to the Contractor to ensure a competitive
price and fast build.
Private rear gardens to all properties
Included
Private gardens are incorporated.
Provide 'amenity space' in Green Street
£18,196.00
Included
The increased cost of a 60m² Green Street over the same area of
road has been included in the scheme.
Permeable paving to rear gardens & non-adopted areas.
£200,650.00
Included
Accepted by the client and included in the scheme
Light coloured flags (Charcon Appalachian & Ecopave)
with high recycled aggregate and optional permeable
spacer bedding system (Sudsflow) to adopted areas.
Reposition streets in Green Street to shade amenity
areas
Increase shading from garden trees - Increase number of
garden trees to minimum 1 No. per house
Accepted by the client and included in the scheme
£0.00
Included
No cost implication.
£23,850.00
Included
Accepted by the client and included in the scheme
Fixing Standards
£0.00
Included
No cost implication
Pay close attention to detail & finishes to prevent ingress
of water
£0.00
Included
No cost implication
Excluded
We do not currently have a detailed drainage design for the Welsh
Streets scheme so cannot price accurately the increase in cost.
160mm pipe is on avergae 327% more expensive than 110mm so
these costs indicate that the scheme cost would be prohibitively
expensive.
Deepflow guttering is included. The increased cost haas been
accepted by the client.
Increase drainage capacity by 30% - Increase pipe sizes 100mm to 150mm, 150mm to 225mm etc. to provide
additional attentuation.
Increase gutter capacity by 30% - Alter gutter profile to
increase cross-sectional area, increase downpipe
diameter, provide splitters to discharge excess flow.
£3,300.00
Included
58
Reduce load on underground drain - Direct plot drainage
to soakaways
Excluded
The Structural Engineer has adivsed that this is not possible on the
Welsh Streets scheme due to the ground conditions allowing no
inflitration.
SUDS design - Incorporate green roofs, permeable
paving, swales etc.
Excluded
Green roofs were ruled out by the client at an early stage.
Permeable paving has been icorporated above. Swales are
unacceptable to our client on an inner city housing development.
Change gutter profile - 1 downpipe per elevation of each
house. Deepflow.
£2,550.00
Included
Some builders fit 1 downpipe per pair of houses. We have
included for a downpipe front and back to each property.
Develop outside flood zone
£0.00
Included
The Welsh Streets site is a low flood risk zone.
Raise building GF level to ensure level access to front
and rear. Slope rear gardens away from house.
Excluded
The Welsh Streets site is a low flood risk zone so this item was not
investigated further.
Flood Defence - Set back windows & doors
Included
The Welsh Streets site is a low flood risk zone but these design
feature was included.
Protect against sewer leakage - Install no return valves on
sewer connections. Storage may be required for duration
of event.
£23,550.00
Included
Client considers cost acceptable. Item to be included in scheme.
Protect against sewer leakage - Install separate foul &
surface systems
£0.00
Included
No additional cost as this item is included in the scheme, this is a
Liverpool City Council requirement.
Included
The Welsh Streets site is a low flood risk zone but the engineer
advised that the standard wall strength would be acceptable.
Ensure wall strength suitable for flooding
Protect internal services from shallow flood - raise
electrics above 750mm
£0.00
Excluded
The Welsh Streets site is a low flood risk zone so whilst this item is
unlikely to have a cost implication the Client will decide at a later
date if they wish to raise the sockets.
Use non-corroding materials - Stainless steel wall ties &
fixings
£0.00
Included
Standard practice.
Reduce sub-floor potential for water pressure - Ground
bearing slab
£358,500.00
Excluded
The Welsh Streets site is a low flood risk zone and this item has a
high cost. Beam and block will most likely be used.
Excluded
The Welsh Streets site is a low flood risk zone so this item was not
investigated further.
Floor construction is likely to be a beam and block - screed to be
included.
To be included in specification.
Where suspended slab lay sub-floor void to falls to sump
near drainage pump for pumping
Drying out - Screed finish to ground floor
£58,662.00
Included
Drying out - Closed cell insulation below 750mm from
FFL
£64,800.00
Included
59
Drying out - DPM under screed instead of slab
£0.00
Included
DPM included. No cost implication to move it's position.
Ensure effective connection between DPM & DPC Taped joints
Drying out & reduced water damage - No mdf below
750mm & skirtings SW
Lift vulnerable kitchen units - 100mm plastic legs
£0.00
Included
Taped joints standard. Included with no cost implication.
£3,900.00
Included
Minimal cost. Client has accepted.
£7,950.00
Included
Included.
Whilst there was disappointment that more features could not be incorporated, the team recognised that the client is making a significant
additional investment in those accepted. The total additional expenditure accepted by the client totalled over £830,000 on a project value of
approx.. £10M. This research shows that even under such intense scrutiny, these proposals can offer tangible value to a social housing developer.
3.1d. Barriers to Implementation
A detailed audit of client decision making was recorded during the whole appraisal and re-appraisal process. The full breakdown is given in the
Longlist & Decision Audit (Appendix 3.2). Each negative or doubtful decision was marked against one or more of a number of regular headings as
shown in the summary table below.
SUMMARY TABLE OF BARRIERS TO IMPLEMENTATION
Barriers to implementation?
capital cost
low risk item planning
- not worth constraint
doing
highways/
sewers
constraint
managemen maintenanc conflicting
developmen design
t constraint e burden
performance t timetable conflict
demand
aesthetic/
cultural
objections
alternative
measure
selected
buildability/
availability
total barriers (out of 118)
77
38
22
9
6
15
7
7
17
17
11
2
proportion of barriers %
65
32
19
8
5
13
6
6
14
14
9
2
Commentary
The figures in the table should be taken loosely as they were specific to this project; although a broad range of climate issues were addressed in
the recommendations so they highlight some interesting points.


The most obvious barrier to implementation was unsurprisingly Capital Cost, with this cited by the client for 65% of the recommendations.
The perception of Low Risk was the second most common barrier at 32% and this mostly related to flooding (which the engineers found
to be low risk on this site) and wind where the projected extreme data was inconclusive.
60





The statutory constraints of Planning and Highways taken together gave 27% with resistance to SUDs and unconventional road design
from highways and procedural barriers to changing designs under a complex planning process for a sensitive site.
Design Conflicts and perceived Cultural Objections accounted for a combined 28%, revealing the depth of pre-conceptions about how
the buildings should look, and the way residents would behave eg. non-domestic looking shutters, not accepting a ‘soggy patch’ at the
bottom of the garden, issues with security and privacy for ventilation options, and too much shading from larger garden trees. There was
also some reluctance from designers to deviate from construction detailing ‘norms’ due to extra work involved and liability concerns.
Management and Maintenance concerns are understandable and were recorded against 18% of items with worries about broken
shutters, overgrown trees, oil filled grasscrete parking bays, sand filled partitions leaking out, green roofs and swales proving to be
liabilities. Our experience here and elsewhere, is that social housing landlords in the NW region have a deep dislike of rainwater recycling
systems, which are perceived to break down and to add unnecessary capital and maintenance cost.
Alternative Measures selected meant that 9% of proposals were rejected although several of these were different forms of solar shading
and associated adaptations.
Perhaps surprisingly, Timetable and Buildability issues only accounted for a total 8% of objections, consisting mainly of planning delays,
slower forms of wet construction and some less common building materials. Importantly though this did highlight the difficulty of achieving
thermal mass in lightweight construction.
61
3.2 Strategy 2 – Future Product
There is a great need for mass affordable housing production in the UK and greater industrialisation of the process could bring better quality,
speed and predictability to it’s delivery. However, factory made housing has not been able to provide the variety and flexibility necessary to
respond to different site context and programme requirements. Much recently built highly insulated, air-tight, timber frame housing is suffering
overheating and is highly susceptible to flood damage. Supertight houses requiring MVHR systems to provide suitable air quality, present risks of
resident mis-use and lifestyle issues, maintenance burden and health factors.
From our research stage, the Timber Building Systems Review found that full volumetric systems were too limited by transportation constraints
and could not offer sufficient variety in the end product. Open panel systems were economic but could not offer the speed and quality benefits of
more industrialised options. Cross laminated timber was uneconomic and over engineered for simple low rise housing. The team concluded that a
hybrid approach of closed panel and partial volumetric construction for repetitive elements eg. bathrooms, could provide a fast watertight shell
using large standardised components in a variety of configurations whilst allowing customised cladding and fit out options. This philosophy of Mass
Customisation is becoming more prevalent in all forms of industrial products offering consumers individualisation along with branded quality.
3.2a. The Strategy
IDEAHAUS CONCEPT
Under Strategy 2, we developed designs for a building system which would be more resilient to flood damage and resist overheating through
passive cooling techniques. The system is based around a limited number of components which can be assembled to provide different sized
homes, a modular service/circulation core and a range of cladding and double skin options. Branded the IDEAhaus (see Appendix 3.4), this would
be:
 Industrialised
 Delightful
 Efficient
 Adaptable
The designs illustrate how spatial flexibility, customiseable facades, thermal improvements and future adaptability could revolutionise UK housing
production.
62
INDUSTRIALISED
Exploded view highlighting component kit




Standardisation – mass production of regular core components for the superstructure
Manufacturing quality – enhanced quality achieved by production under factory conditions
Predictable cost & delivery – through repetitive design, specifications and construction methods
Economies of scale – through bulk purchasing power and availability of stock items
63
DELIGHTFUL
Elevational options – brick, timber, render/panel




Spacious – designs based on detailed furniture layouts and activity spaces, good ceiling heights and central light well
Individualised – different possible room layouts, fenestration, cladding and finishing options
Comfortable – through use of thermal mass, good ventilation, shading options and radiant heating systems
Quality – high quality products with finishing options
64
EFFICIENT
Long section




Passive design – highly insulated fabric with thermal mass, good controllable natural ventilation and shading options.
Renewable energy options - ability to incorporate renewable energy systems
Low impact materials – sustainably sourced materials, engineered to minimise waste
Fast construction – predictable design time and quick to erect watertight shell construction
65
ADAPTABLE
4 bed 6 person house floor plans




Flexible layout – designed to UK’s Lifetime Homes generous space and accessibility standards
Climate resilient – flood resilient and overheating resistant construction
Additive features – construction allows for exo-structure options and vertical extension
Upgradable performance – allowing for replaceable cladding, solar panels and services
66
IDEAHAUS CONSTRUCTION
Following the philosophy of mass customisation the construction is considered as:
 Core construction
 Additive components
 Adaptable services
The IDEAhaus kit of parts
67
CORE CONSTRUCTION
Foundations – helical steel screw piles are proposed to suit virtually any site conditions (eg. urban housing on filled brownfield sites) with minimal
disruption and preparation. They can reduce site excavation and minimise cost of landfill taxes. They allow large shading trees to be located closer
to buildings without root damage to foundations.
Ground floor to External wall detail, highlighting flood resilient floor slab upstand
A helical screw pile
Ground floor – large precast concrete units with flood resilient upstand edges, bonded damp membrane and closed cell insulation to the outer
faces giving a dpc level 750mm above floor level and a high thermal mass. The units span between pile caps on insulated blocks with reinforced
upstand edge beam. Units are designed to a standard house width of 5.6m to suit 2, 3 & 4 bedroom house types. A standard position is given for
front and rear doors within two large 3.3m units. A central 2.4m unit is designed to suit a WC/utility & stairwell and 1.1m infill units are used to
extend the housetype to suit the number of bedrooms required.
68
Wall cassettes – pre-insulated timber frame wall cassettes with 120mm pre-cast ‘Hemcrete’ insulation and 200mm of hemp fibre insulation quilt .
The hemcrete product provides excellent thermal mass and phase change properties which enhance its performance. The cassette has a
breathable construction and good humidity control performance. Window openings can be individually designed and proposals shown are set out
to suit standard brick dimensions.
Hemcrete thermal performance chart, close up and Hembuild prefabricated panels on site
Upper floor cassettes – open panel cassettes over main living spaces are of exposed engineered timber edge beams and joists. These are
infilled on site with hollow clay blocks based on the Ibstock ‘Coolvault’ system [6] which provides thermal mass and a self-finished vaulted ceiling to
ground floor rooms and a timber boarded finish above. The central area around bathrooms and stairs are closed panel with plasterboard ceilings
to allow service distribution.
Upper floor party wall junction, Ibstock ‘Coovault’ clay floor blocks for timber floor cassettes
69
Central Volumetrics – the highly serviced central area with bathrooms, stairs and main heating system is standardised for all the house types
and would suit off-site volumetric construction and could even be stock items. Finishes and fittings could be completed to standard or individual
order. The upper volume has a pre-assembled roof cassette to match the main flat roofs.
Typical bathroom pod and IDEAhaus volumetric core elements with bathrooms and stairwell
Roof – the south facing roof is proposed with a 30deg pitch for optimum solar collection potential. This can be pre-assembled (on or off-site) in
trussed rafter and purlins spanning between party walls. With plywood boarded finish to provide racking and suit different cladding options. North
facing roofs are proposed in pre-insulated closed panel cassettes.
Eaves detail and volumetric roof diagram
70
ADDITIVE COMPONENTS
External cladding – the proposals shows cavity wall brickwork cladding and zinc clad roofs with solar panels over the pitched roof. Other finishes
are equally viable.
Green roof/roof garden – the north facing flat roofs lend themselves to a green roof or roof garden finish to aid in bio-diversity, rainwater
attenuation and cooling micro-climate through evapo-transpiration and provide the opportunity for extra amenity space.
Bio-diverse green roof
Roof garden showing private amenity potential
Fit out – the layouts shown are based on highly specified UK social housing standards. This gives the flexibility to vary room sizes and shapes or
go more open plan depending on the overall size of house.
71
Exo-structure & components – a grid of thermally broken fixing points is built into the façade for an optional 1.2m deep timber framed exostructure with a range of porches, shading devices, balconies, trelliswork etc.
Exo-structure variations
Thermal break fixing detail
Extra floors – the structure will support additional floors with a second staircase added for vertical extension. Roof cassettes can be demounted
and reused.
72
ADAPTABLE SERVICES
PV-Thermal – composite PV-T panels are proposed to the south facing roof combining solar hot water collectors under photovoltaic cells. PV-T’s
can give a 40% greater energy yield for equivalent areas of roof than separate panel systems. A large hot water tank is provided at first floor level.
PV Thermal installation diagram
Underfloor heating installation
Underfloor heating & cooling – both floors are shown with underfloor heating pipework for comfortable radiant heat at low temperatures and
allows heat exchangers to operate efficiently. The pipework can also be used for summer cooling to disperse heat from the structure. A gas fired
boiler provides heating and hot water in combination with renewable energy sources.
73
Ventilation – the design has focussed on a natural ventilation strategy rather than whole house MVHR. Window patterns open top and bottom to
enhance single sided ventilation airflow in rooms and the stairwell rooflight increases the options for cross ventilation. Windows can be securely
restrained and insect blinds can be added in the reveals. Opening sizes shown allow a nightime purge ventilation rate of 6 air changes/hour at a
modest air speed of 0.5m/s. Individual extract fans with heat recovery are proposed for kitchens and bathrooms.
Section through stair/lightwell
Single sided ventilation diagram
Central lightwell
Services distribution – external and party walls are dry-lined to allow a service zone for cables and pipework - all above 750mm for flood
resilience. Wiring for the ground floor lighting runs in the top of the ‘coolvault’ units and drops through where required.
74
PERFORMANCE MODELLING
Overheating modelling was carried out on the IDEAhaus (see Appendix 2.2) using IES software. The following summary table compares
IDEAhaus performance of a SE facing bedroom against the baseline house in timber frame and in brick/block construction.
Note: 2080* weather data from Prometheus high emissions scenario 90th percentile dataset
SE facing bedroom 1
peak temp
degC
CIBSE guide
timber frame
hours>
25degC
hours %
hours> 28degC
hours
%
2010 DSY
2010 DSY
2080*
2080*
annual
jul/aug
annual
jul/aug
35
35
39
39
573
310
2605
496
5
19.6
62.5
89.2
100.0
192
141
1474
370
1
6.6
28.4
50.5
74.6
brick/block
2010 DSY
2010 DSY
2080*
2080*
annual
jul/aug
annual
jul/aug
29
29
36
36
396
286
1391
496
13.6
57.7
47.6
100.0
81
42
934
262
2.8
8.5
32.0
52.8
IDEAhaus
2010 DSY
2010 DSY
2080*
2080*
annual
jul/aug
annual
jul/aug
28
41
34
990
496
1.4
6.9
33.9
100.0
5
5
352
200
0.2
1.0
12.1
40.3
34
Summary of internal overheating modelling (IES) comparing timber frame, masonry and IDEAhaus for 2010 & .2080* Hi-em 90th%tile dataset.
75
The findings show the IDEAhaus proposal reduces the overheating problem significantly more than the brick/block option. Annual habitable hours
>28degC are 0.2% in 2010 and 12.1% in 2080. In July/Aug this is also reduced to just 1.0% in 2010 and 40.3% in 2080. This is a 76%
improvement over timber frame for 2080.
40
Peak 34degC
Temperature (°C)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
00:00
06:00
12:00
18:00
00:00
Date: Sat 28/Aug
Dry-bulb temperature: 2080_Liverpool_a1fi_90_percentile_DSY.epw (2080_Liverpool_a1fi_90_percentile_DSY.epw)
Mean radiant temperature: Living Room (princes-26.aps)
th
Hottest Day 2080 High Emissions 90 percentile
– Baseline scheme (IDEAhaus construction), SE facing bedroom
The hottest day analysis shows IDEAhaus is very effective at smoothing the temperature variations to reduce peak temperatures to around
34degC. This compares to approx. 40deg C for timber frame.
76
Timber
Year
2010
2030
2050
2080
Heating Load (kWh) Cooling Load (kWh)
4120
609
2556
1680
1120
2452
456
3356
Total Load (kWh)
4729
4236
3572
3812
Annual Space Htg v Space Clg
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2010
2030
Heating Load (kWh)
Masonry
Year
Heating Load (kWh) Cooling Load (kWh)
2010
3950
558
2030
2485
1478
2050
1009
2298
2080
408
3265
Total Load (kWh)
4508
3963
3307
3673
2050
2080
Cooling Load (kWh)
Annual Space Htg v Space Clg
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2010
2030
Heating Load (kWh)
IDEAHaus
Year
Heating Load (kWh) Cooling Load (kWh)
2010
3802
268
2030
2359
756
2050
905
1186
2080
372
1658
Total Load (kWh)
4070
3115
2091
2030
2050
2080
Cooling Load (kWh)
Annual Space Htg v Space Clg
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2010
2030
Heating Load (kWh)
2050
2080
Cooling Load (kWh)
Space Heating v Cooling energy demand comparison of timber frame, masonry and IDEAhaus – Hi-em 90th%tile projections
IES analysis of the IDEAhaus heating and cooling demand shows a lower demand than the timber frame baseline house (half the energy
requirement in 2080). It also moves the crossover point back 10 years.
77
3.2b. Timescales & Triggers for Implementation
The IDEAhaus kit of parts is based on the idea of
 Core construction
 Additive components
 Adaptable services
…which are flexible in design and adaptable over the longer term.
The core construction components are selected to form the basic original house shell with a range of possible layouts. The idea is to keep the
number of core components small so they can be stock items, ready to go. Core components could also be used or recycled in an extension eg.
adding another floor and reusing the roof cassettes.
The additive components can be much more varied and change more regularly eg. to respond to climate change, technological advances,
different specifications and even fashions. Some additive components would be installed at the start eg. internal partitions, cladding & windows.
Others can be optional to add at any time eg. exo-structural frame with various shades, pergolas, porches, balconies etc. Typically these would be
added to improve comfort or amenity. The façade includes permanent fixing points to accept the frame at any time without major internal
disruption.
Adaptable services include underfloor heating which frees up wall space and allows for different internal layout choices or changes eg. a cellular
plan ground floor could be converted to an open plan layout to suit a warming climate by allowing free air flow through the house and to the central
lightwell vent. The underfloor pipework could also be connected for cooling eg. by using ground source heat pump for heating and cooling. The
use of PV-Thermal panels is suggested as a very efficient use of limited roof space to maximise renewable energy potential. The general
distribution of pipework and wiring is essentially traditional in walls and roof space. The Coolvault blocks include an integral service channel for
laying cables etc in the upper floor/ceiling.
The timescales for adaptations do not need to be specific with this approach but the Psychrometric analysis in Section 2a gives a guide:
 2010 - very little need for any environmental control other than solar control
 2030 - need for a co-ordinated cooling strategy – thermal mass needed
 2050 - increased humidity over and need for more ventilation with a high thermal mass.
 2080 - increased temperature and humidity, makes passive solutions difficult – ground cooling is one option.
78
3.2c.
Cost Analysis
A discursive appraisal of IDEAhas costs was undertaken (see Appendix 3.5). The IDEAhaus construction uses a combination of mass
produced core components for the superstructure, such as panelised floors, walls, roofs and potential pod bathrooms. Using more traditional
cladding elements and internal finishings to a high level specification.
The overall design principals of using modern methods of construction, such as panelised walls, floors and roofs are well documented. These
systems offer the benefits of mass off site production, potential lower cost, higher quality and quicker construction times.
The IDEAhaus takes this benefit further using standard panelised systems to produce a base house type, which can be adapted by adding
panels to produce houses to suit. Each unit would be a standard house type but with the benefit of different sizes, finishes or claddings
produces a variety of aesthetically different houses.
CORE CONSTRUCTION COSTS
Foundations - helical screw piling has been proposed to cover a range of ground conditions and give continuity in foundation solution and
subcontractor works. The benefit of this is that it allows mass production of foundations. The barrier to this is that Helical Steel Piling is not the
least expensive form of foundation, and may mean some sites are over designed and overpriced. If less expensive piles were used as the
base line and perhaps only upgraded where needed, then a more flexible approach could be added, whilst still getting the benefits of mass
production.
Ground Floor – The use of large pre-cast concrete floor slabs with inbuilt up stands is innovative, and affords protection and resilience to
flooding, whilst also getting the benefits of modular timber construction for the superstructure. Floor slabs of this size and shape would be
expensive in the current market, and there would have to be mass production to drive these costs down. It should also be remembered units
like these are large and heavy making transport and placing more critical. Consultation with precast unit manufacturers would identify the best
mix of size and weights etc. to achieve the most all round economic solution.
Wall Cassettes - Highly insulated prefabricated wall cassettes offer the benefits of offsite construction, quick on site assembly and high
insulation and air tightness. The cassettes have proposed insulation levels of 120mm Hemcrete and 200mm of hemp fibre. Similar panellised
systems are already proven in performance.
Floor Cassettes - The combination of exposed beam floor cassettes with Ibstock ‘Coolvault’ hollow clay blocks provides the benefit of a
lightweight construction with improved thermal mass. Costs for panel systems are between 5-15% higher than traditional open timber frame
systems generally, and we expect this could be higher using clay blocks in the floor construction.
79
Central Volumetrics - Off site pod unit construction is dependent, like most off site manufacturing processes, on high volume and consistent
units. Using a single common central component comprising stairs and bathroom gives the potential to achieve high pod numbers and get the
benefits of offsite production. The units could be manufactured in segments for ease of transport and fitted together on site.
Roof - The combination of trussed pitched roof and flat roof produces some of the benefit and low cost of trussed roofs, whilst allowing a flat
cassette north facing sedum roof. Cassette roofs would be similar to cassette floors in their benefits and costs, pitched roofs are generally
accepted as the most economical and low maintenance method of roofing houses.
ADAPTIVE COMPONENTS
Claddings - Generally cladding components are finishing’s and materials you may encounter in affordable housing such as brickwork or varied
claddings (to a lesser extent) and solar panels. We would not envisage additional cost in comparison to the Princes Park scheme.
Green Roof - Sedum or green roofs do carry a premium additional cost, they also have a maintenance implication. This needs to be weighted
against the benefits of rainwater attenuation and cooling micro-climate properties, as well as the green biodiversity benefits.
Fit out - This is line with typical affordable housing schemes, such as Princes Park.
Exo Structure – Fixing points built into the structure to allow immediate or future added facades would add a small cost. Exo structures
themselves could combine porches, shading and balconies which are to varying extents already included on some affordable housing
schemes. This is seen as added appeal and a way of raising the perception of social housing and encouraged by many Housing Associations.
Although this adds cost, some of this cost is inbuilt in scheme feasibilities and can often be accepted. Whether external structures find their
way to the final product will depend on other abnormal or extra over costs e.g. poor ground conditions.
ADAPTABLE SERVICES
PV Thermal - Solar thermal and PV are currently used in the Affordable Housing market. Usually one or the other, occasionally both are
installed on Code 4 or higher buildings. A combined PV and solar thermal panel would be a logical future step. Renewable energy sources are
viewed as a last add on to housing as many Housing Associations prefer a passive approach to save energy. Renewable technology has
maintenance implications over and above the passive approach and also comes with the cultural change required by house occupiers to
understand how best to use new systems.
Under floor heating and cooling - Under floor heating is sometimes installed in specialist accommodation such as disabled bungalows or
elderly extra care schemes. It works more effectively in individual houses as the temperature can be tailored to suit the occupier. Under floor
heating has slow reaction times, so is best used constantly to maintain an average temperature. It’s more expensive than traditional radiators,
but this cost is falling as it is used more and more.
80
Ventilation - Natural ventilation is intrinsic in the design, and is preferred by Housing Associations over mechanical ventilation, particularly
Mechanical Ventilation with Heat Recovery. Mechanical systems have maintenance liabilities and are not well received by house occupiers or
Associations. They are seen as costly to run and draughty and are often found switched off when condensation issues are discovered.
Services Distribution - Service distribution is a standard installation.
3.2d. Barriers to Implementation
The principles of off-site components, whilst claiming to carry many benefits, have proven difficult to achieve in the housing industry. Off-site
manufacturing capacity along with lack of construction knowledge and the inability of the industry to take full advantage of the benefits in reality
produce higher costs. However, moving forward, developers and contractors are now choosing systemised building more and more. The
benefits and the 'know how' to build quicker with less trades and therefore less risk is starting to be seen.
The barriers to IDEAhaus will be client and general public perception of climate change, irrespective of the evidence there is a resistance to
seeing this problem either happening, or being an issue for today. The scale up required to provide a mainstream systemised building product
needs a massive financial leap of faith as this approach would need to establish an industrial production, distribution and sales network of at
least regional and probably national size. This study has demonstrated the technical potential for such a product, but much more work would
need to be undertaken to prove the market, develop technical construction details and bespoke components, establish a supply chain, refine
layouts and options and provide demonstrable pilot schemes as prototypes.
81
4
Learning from work on this Contract
4a. Summary of our approach to the adaptation design work
Our approach based on previous experience was to take a small group of client and multi-disciplinary professions (as detailed in following Section
4b.) through the following process:
Research
The project opened with regular open design team & planning meetings attended by all. Members were delegated areas of climate research
accordingly and returned with information for further discussion including
 Analysis of future weather data
 Psychrometric charts to assess cooling strategies
 Comparative thermal modelling of a baseline scheme & housetype
 Assessment of superstructure, foundations and site stability issues
 Assessment of site flood risk
Client involvement led to adoption of relevant weather scenarios for study. The range of modelling tools were used to assess risks for a typical
baseline scheme and suggest possible strategies.
Research was also undertaken into the range of timber building systems available attempting to categorise and appraise them for potential use in
the project. Interesting products, materials and other precedents were also informally gathered.
Risk Assessment
After initial scoping, climate research was structured through the Climate Change Risk Assessment process to prioritise areas of most concern for
the client. Risks were considered for now and under the future climate projections (as described in detail in Section 2)
Overheating was considered the highest risk for this site. Flooding and ground stability issues were considered generally low risk for the site but
high risk for timber building systems. Wind issues were also considered relatively low risk for this site but with high uncertainty over the projected
data.
Option Appraisal
SWOT analysis was used for early stage option appraisal based on the TSB Checklist 3 (Appendix???). This also identified potential for further
investigation
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Two Strategies
Two strategies were developed for
 Near to Market
 Future Product
Near to Market Strategy
The Near to Market strategy focussed on overheating as the main risk, but with low regret solutions also considered for high winds, flooding and
drought. The strategy started with the SWOT analysis and proposed a range of solutions to include in a Longlist of Potential Adaptation Measure
recommendations. These were then rigorously appraised for outline costs and practicality with the client and study team to develop a Shortlist.
This was further refined several times with more detailed investigation as required to provide the final adopted Shortlist. This represents the
accepted recommendations which will go forward to tender at the next stage of the project.
Future Product Strategy
Ideas for the future product started to emerge from early stage design team meetings and were worked up in more detail following the SWOT
analysis and Near to Market appraisals. The architects led on the design development incorporating technical comment from the consultants and
strategic ideas from Queens University. This strategy considered wider risks in addition to overheating eg. including flooding and foundation
solutions which would provide a more generic product across a range of site conditions. Designs developed included all features without detailed
costing in order to investigate modelling for an idealised product.
Dissemination
Findings on climate change and adaptation strategies have already been presented in seminars to the client, several other client groups and
various Schools of Architecture (see sampled in Appendix 5.2) in addition to the various TSB events.
The Future Product; IDEAhaus design and findings have been presented at an international conference, PLEA2013 Munich, (see Appendix 5.1)
and a follow up peer review article is being prepared for a special ‘Low Carbon Housing Design’ edition of Buildings journal. It has been
academically well received and the next challenge is to carry out Proof of Market research under a TSB Smart Fund grant recently awarded. A
student project at Manchester School of Architecture will also develop some of the ideas for an eco-house competition for the British Homes
Awards in May 2014.
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4b. Who was involved and what they brought to the project
The majority of team members were fully involved in both the D4FC2 study and the ‘live building project’ as shown in the table below.
Relationship of CCA Team to Building Project
Role
D4FC2 Study Team
Project Team
Client
TSB
Plus Dane
Project Manager/ Architect
Triangle Architects,
Green Triangle Studio
Queens University Belfast
Triangle Architects
Weather Research/ Risk
Assessment
Queens University Belfast,
Triangle Architects,
Sutcliffe
N/A
Timber Building Systems
Review
Energy Modelling/ CFD
Leeds School of Architecture N/A
The Energy Council
N/A
SAP
N/A
The Energy Council
Code for Sustainable
Homes
Structural/ Civil Engineering
N/A
Green Triangle Studio
Sutcliffe
Sutcliffe
Cost Advice/ Client
Representative
Markhams
Markhams
Landscape Architect
N/A
BCA Landscape
Developer
Plus Dane
Plus Dane
Sustainability Consultant/
Weather Modelling
N/A
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At Triangle, the same Director oversaw the study and the building project. The study was directly run by an Associate Director and the building
project by an Associate who liaised closely. Other architectural staff, broadly overlapped both work streams. The final reporting was also
completed in association with new specialist practice Green Triangle Studio.
Directors and Associates at The Energy Council, Sutcliffe and Markhams were involved closely in both work streams. BCA Landscape were not
involved directly in the study but contributed positively with amendments to their designs.
Professor Keeffe from Queens University Belfast was introduced to the study team to bring a broader sustainability and energy perspective to the
study work and support the more academic lines of enquiry. He was supported by student research from Queens and the Leeds School of
Architecture, where he was previously Professor of Sustainable Architecture.
Design Team meetings were held regularly but separately for the study and the building project and Minutes shared with both teams in addition to
high level feedback within each consultancy.
The developer, Plus Dane, was represented at a senior level on the study team by their Performance and Quality Manager who oversaw issues of
sustainability and policy within the organisation and liaised directly with their Development Manager for the project. She also attended the D4FC2
Design Team Meetings and was consulted by Triangle and others on specific issues of client importance such as appraisal criteria and risk
assessment. In the latter stages of the project, Plus Dane’s P&Q Manager unfortunately left the organisation and Plus Dane were represented by
Markhams for the reporting stages.
The following list shows the organisations and individuals (see key personnel biographies in Appendix 4.1) involved and an outline of their services
in the study:
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Team Details
Project Manager & Architect:
Triangle Architects Ltd
Key Personnel
Ian McHugh, Associate Director – Project Manager
David Ward, Director
Mark Trayhorn, Associate/Project Architect
Peter Fisk, Architectural Assistant
Matthew Hargreaves, Architectural Assistant
Key Services
Project management
Lead designer
Climate & Weather research
Sefaira Energy Modelling
Product research
Main Report
Green Triangle Studio
Key Personnel
Ian McHugh, Principal
Key Services
Main Report
‘IDEAhaus’ design development
Code for Sustainable Homes assessment
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Sustainability Consultant:
Queens University Belfast, School of Architecture
Key Personnel
Professor Greg Keeffe, Professor of Sustainable Architecture
Morgan Grennan, Research Assistant
Key Services
Climate & Weather research
Bio-climatic analysis
Concept & strategy development
Design support
Leeds Metropolitan University, School of Architecture
Key Personnel
Professor Greg Keeffe, Professor of Sustainable Architecture
Lucy Andersson, Research Assistant
Key Services
Timber Building Systems Review
Energy & Performance Consultant
The Energy Council:
Key Personnel
Matthew Adams, Associate/Project Engineer
Key Services
SAP calculations
IES Thermal modelling
CFD Modelling
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Civil & Structural Engineer:
Sutcliffe
Key Personnel
Ian McIver, Director/Structural Engineer
Simon Brady, Civil Engineer
Key Services
Climate Change Engineering assessment
Drainage & Flood Risk assessment
Building shell structural design advice
Cost Consultant/ Client Representative:
Markhams
Key Personnel
Mike Hornsby, Director
Helen Riley, QS
Key Services
Risk Assessment advice
Cost & Programme advice
Cost Report
Client representation
Project Client:
Plus Dane Housing Group
Key Personnel
Inger Leach, Performance & Quality Manager
Steve Elliott, Development Officer
Key Services
Stakeholder feedback
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Post-Tender Team Roles
Due to the sensitivity of the development and questions over the demolition of the existing Victorian properties, the scheme has had a complex
Planning history. Currently the scheme has received Planning Approval and has the support of the Local Authority. However it has been ‘called in’
for a Public Enquiry by the Secretary of State and a final decision is expected later in 2014. The scheme has therefore still not been tendered.
If and when the scheme does progress to the construction phase it will be under a Design & Build contract which would change the roles of the
consultants in various ways. This will most likely be as follows:





Architect, Landscape Architect & Civil/Structural Engineers – Triangle, BCA Landscape & Sutcliffe will novate to work for the Main
Contractor post-tender on Building Regulations and Construction information packages. They will not have a site inspection or contract
administration role. Sufficient detail should be included at tender to enable a good completion of technical architectural design by the
original personnel who know the scheme well.
Sustainability Consultant – QUB School of Architecture will not carry out further sustainability work post-tender.
Energy Consultants – The Energy Council will not automatically novate to the Main Contractor who may continue with them or choose
their own SAP Consultants to complete the calculations.
Code for Sustainable Homes assessor – Green Triangle Studio will novate to work for the Main Contractor post-tender. This will be an
advisory and assessment role only but allows for some continuity in communicating the reasons for the adaptation design features which
can become lost in transition.
Cost Consultant/ Client Representative – Markhams will be retained by the client to administer the contract as Employers Agent. Whilst
this arrangement is the norm in most social housing schemes due to the need for strong cost control, there is obviously less emphasis on
quality control and less technical understanding of design and performance issues than there would be with a traditional contract
administration by an architect. However, it is hoped that the consultant’s active participation in the study will help them to understand the
significance of the adaptation designs and specifications and take a strong lead in enforcing those features.
Experience shows that, even with some continuity of the organisations involved, there could be several changes of personnel within each
consultancy and the client body at the post-tender stage and this lack of continuity and loss of learning on the research and design development
should be identified as a risk for the retention of key features on the project.
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4c. The initial project plan and how this changed
The following table outlines the initial project plan with targets and dates achieved shown alongside the progression of the building project.
Table: Timeline of CCA Study to Building Project
Stage 1
Climate Risk
Assessment
Date
Original
target
1st and 2nd
quarter
Date
Achieved
Output
Original target
Changes & Comments
Building Project
Timetable
1st and 2nd
quarter:
Review of main climate change issues
in locality
Review of performance and associated
risks of existing Masterplan
Review of volumetric housing market
Variation 1 – change to review of
system build housing market
Consultation and design
review. Brief revised from
earlier schemes.
th
15 Sep 2011th
14 Mar 2012
rd
Stage 2
Option
Appraisal
3 quarter
Stage 3A and
3B
Detailed
Design
4th quarter
Stage 3C
Detailed
Design
5th quarter
rd
3 quarter
th
15 Marth
14 Jun 2012
4th, 5th & 6th
quarter
th
15 Jun –
th
15 Sep –
th
14 Dec 2012
th
– 14 Mar
2013
5th & 6th
quarter
th
15 Sep –
th
15 Dec 2012
Consider options for Masterplan reorientation
Preferred volumetric and timber
framed products appraised, including
energy modelling
Adaption and enhanced housing
performance appraised
Intermediate Report
Development of designs for interior
volumetric/timber frame
Adaption of designs for external skins
and appraisal
Consideration of detail aspects of the
Masterplan, redesign and
recommendations
Progress Design options
towards Planning
Application
Variation 2 – stage 3 & whole project
extended by one quarter to Jun 13.
Volumetric & skin designs extended
into Q5 & Q6 to overlap with
masterplan design work.
Near to Market change to include
traditional construction options.
Masterplan overlapped with
volumetric & skin design work
Progress Design and
supporting documentation
to Planning Application
Planning Submission
deferred several times to
Feb 13
90
th
– 14 Mar
2013
Stage 4
Reports and
Dissemination
th
6 quarter
th
th
7 to 10
quarter
th
15 Mar 2013
th
– 14 Mar
2014
Final Report
Client Report
Cost report/detailed design
Engineering & Energy Modelling
reports
Lecture to students & client groups
Conferences PLEA13 Munich
Variation 3 – project extended by two
quarters to Dec 13 – additional
dissemination commitments and
delayed tech reports
Variation 4 – project extended by one
quarter to Mar 14 – illness
Planning Approval rec’d
July13 – but now awaiting
Public Inquiry June 14.
Progress commenced but
now on hold for detailed
design, specification and
phase 1 tender
Achievements
The initial project plan did not vary greatly in principle and the intended outcomes have been achieved. The Strategy 1 – Near to Market
Adaptation designs & specifications were able to be agreed and incorporated into the designs for the Planning Submission and the more detailed
elements are agreed to go forward to the delayed tender stage information.




Initial masterplanning studies and appraisal were able to feed into the Planning Application scheme
Adaptation of construction designs have been agreed in the Detailed Design stage
The client has made performance specification decisions for inclusion in the Tender stage.
Design concepts have been developed for ‘Future Product’ development with the IDEAhaus
Overall the study has delivered on the Technical Project Plan:
 Research – good understanding for client and consultants of the issues relevant to the project and more general background
 Near to Market – realistic adaptation options tested and recommended and several to be implemented
 Future Product – concept design for a systemised building product; the IDEAhaus
 Energy Assessments – extensive modelling of comparative schemes was carried out to inform design choices and show effectiveness of
proposals
 Detailed Option Appraisal – Cost analysis & risk assessment was carried out which informed design and client choices
 Cost analysis – The initial plan to assess Lifecycle costs was rejected as most lifecycle benefits would be gained by the future tenants not
by the developer. The developer as a social landlord was bound by the constraints of government funding regimes which meant that only a
Capital cost analysis was relevant in this case.
 Stakeholder Involvement – Feedback was received throughout the research & design stages from the client. Additional feedback was
received from their housing development team. Planning & Highways departments were involved in detail in the scheme options
considered. The Near to Market adaptations are within scope of normal Building Regulations and special advice has therefore not been
sought from Building Control.
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
Dissemination – Findings from the study have been reported to a number of client development teams and three schools of architecture.
A paper on the IDEAhaus was awarded Best Paper at the prestigious Passive Low Energy Architecture (PLEA2013) conference in Munich.
A TSB Smart Fund grant has been awarded to Green Triangle Studio to research Proof of Market for the IDEAhaus concept. Queens
University Belfast and University of Nottingham have both registered an interest in developing and testing the IDEAhaus designs and
offered assistance in gaining commercial support towards future costs.
Delays
Various factors generally extended the project longer than original time estimates:
 Extent of research required (overlapping into design time)
 Overall complexity of the project
 Sequencing of consultant’s work
 Sequencing of 2 adaptation strategies
 Complexity of report co-ordination
 Length of report writing
Due to its nature as a research and design project it was very difficult to predict the time and progress of the study. From previous experience, an
initial concern was keeping pace with the building project. As it turned out, the study did not have these problems due to the delays in the Planning
process. However, it was sometimes difficult to engage with the individual building project team members when they were diverted to other
projects due to the stop-start nature of this one. The study team members have had to be flexible in juggling the workload accordingly.
The main delays in the study have involved the reporting stages and did not affect the inclusion of information into the building project.
From previous experience the team have tried to structure the design and decision making processes to the demands of the TSB reporting
requirements. The design process is by nature fluid and cyclical and this can be difficult to reflect in a more linear reporting structure.
Continuing Risks
The Near to Market features adopted are still vulnerable to the tender processes and any cost reductions required for final acceptance. They could
also come under pressure from the incoming contractor who will have preferences which could undermine design information as tendered.
The whole project is still subject to an unpredictable political context. After several delays it finally achieved Planning Approval, but has now been
called in by the Secretary of State for a Public Inquiry.
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4d. The resources and tools used and their strengths and limitations
Climate & Weather Modelling
UKCP09
The UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) provides climate information based on low, medium and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. There
is obviously much uncertainty in predicting the future but the data covers a range of probabilities and is the best available for use in future
modelling.
Prometheus
Prometheus is an online database created at the University of Exeter which provides free online access to predicted future weather files for many
weather stations across the UK. It converts climate change predictions into probabilistic weather data for example giving hourly dry bulb
temperatures, humidity levels, precipitation, solar radiation (cloud cover), wind speed & direction throughout a year. The database bridges the gap
between the UKCP09 data and the IES thermal modelling software we used.
We found that Prometheus was very user-friendly from a thermal modelling software point of view. The climate files could easily be downloaded
from the Prometheus website and applied to our model through IES. The files are in the Energy Plus format (.epw) which is the same format for
the standard weather files used within IES. The files could also be opened in excel format to better demonstrate the exact climate data applied by
the .epw file.
Climate Consultant 5
We also used the Climate Consultant 5 software downloaded free from University of California (UCLA) to analyse future weather files. The
Prometheus epw files could simply be loaded for a particular weather station, emissions scenario and probabilistic year, eg. Liverpool, high
emissions, 2050, 90th percentile year. The programme then enables this to be read with various forms of charts to show hourly based data over
the whole or any part of that year.
This enabled us to use bio-climatic analysis through psychrometric charts showing patterns of temperature and humidity and the effectiveness of
various passive cooling strategies under such conditions. It also allows for assessment with different comfort models and manipulation of comfort
limits if required. Our engineers also found it very useful in presenting rainfall and wind information.
ProClips
The Probabilistic Climate Profiles ‘ProCliPs’ produced by UKCIP and CIBSE - which are “representations of the UKCP09 climate projections that
provide digestible summaries of the UKCP09 projected changes” – were useful for the team and client to gain a quick visual understanding of the
projections for Liverpool. CIBSE were very helpful in being able to provide a copy of the Liverpool projection to the team ahead of publication.
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Rainfall
The Met Office publication ‘Changes in the frequency of extreme rainfall events for selected towns and cities’ 2010 provided good general
guidance on projected changes based on daily (but not hourly) rainfall amounts. The Appendix includes numerous seasonal charts showing
projected changes to a range of flooding return intervals with a widening probability band up to 2080 for many locations around UK. The
Liverpool projections show a current max 100 year flood becoming an average 46 year flood by 2080. There is unfortunately no ‘backward
projection’ to indicate what a future 100 year flood equates to now.
Thermal Modelling
IES
IES is a market leading environmental building modelling software. Dynamic Simulation Modelling formed the core of our building performance
appraisals. We found IES was generally able to carry out all that was asked of it in terms of what we wanted to model. It was easy to alter the
insulation, thermal mass, ventilation rate and orientation applied to each space and external shading provided.
The software seemed to give consistent results and we were able to identify trends early on in our research which clearly defined which options we
should pursue. However, some of the outputs, although accurate, were not formatted as well as we expected from such sophisticated software. It
has been quite time consuming in compiling data for graphic presentation and we have generally done this through Excel charts.
CIBSE Overheating Guidance
Current CIBSE guidance uses a simple definition of overheating as the exceedance of 28degC for more than 1% of occupied hours based on
simulations using weather files. Whilst we recognise that this is a fairly blunt tool, we have based assessment of relative performance in the
building model options on this definition. This has succeeded in giving us some clear performance comparisons in the different construction types
considered against the weather files and is therefore a reasonable indicator.
We understand models are being developed to consider ‘adaptive comfort’ assessment which would be interesting but require much more indepth study.
SAP
Whilst current versions of SAP, used under the Building Regulations, have some recognition of overheating issues this has very limited scope and
has no requirement to consider future climate scenarios.
We would anticipate that changes will be sought to require such considerations but that there will be prolonged debate with industry.
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Sefaira
Sefaira was used by the architects at an early stage to model energy use. It is very easy to use for comparison by less ‘expert’ designers as it is
pre-loaded with default information which can be changed if required. The software company had to load the future weather files in their system as
the software operates ‘in the cloud’, but were very helpful in doing so. It is however difficult for a non-expert to calibrate energy results against
other assessment systems without knowing how to adjust all the default information inputs to match. It is therefore most useful for early stage
designs to assess and compare possible strategies quickly before more expert engineers are called in.
Wind Modelling
IES
The team attempted using IES for Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) modelling of wind across the site. Whilst this provided some simple visual
results eg. to show basic patterns of ‘tunnelling’ along long streets or ‘eddies’ around corners it was not sophisticated enough to develop further as
the external CFD analysis package is quite limited within IES. Models had to be simplified to ensure there was enough computer processing power
to run an accurate model and the impact of surrounding buildings could not be included. Wind speeds were limited to 50m/s as the maximum,
when in reality hurricanes can produce gusts up to 75m/s.
Micro-climate
The team would have liked to investigate the impact of masterplanning and landscape design more on the immediate micro-climate but did not
have access to suitable modelling tools. We understand there are some high level academic studies trying to quantify effects of green and blue
space on local temperatures but are not aware of any mainsteam software being currently available. There is clear general guidance on these
effects but it is difficult to quantify for client decision making purposes.
Margins Of Error
It is worth re-stating (as from our first D4FC report) that future prediction is fraught with errors. The Prometheus datasets are very exact
numerically, but lack any historic fact compared to their CIBSE originals. This means there could be a serious compounding of error that is not
shown in the modelling. For example IES might produce an hourly temperature for one particular hour in 2080 of 28.24 degC, but is this valid at
any level of confidence? 2080 is a long way away, and the software has errors too, so what is the standard deviation of this value, and if it is so
large – is it of any value? The team decided that although this was important, it was beyond the scope of the project. The best we could say was
that all datasets as given, had the same level of confidence in them, so therefore the same level of error, so we could compare the theoretical
performances as ‘real’, rather than truly factual.
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4e. What worked well and/or badly in our approach
Our experience in this project has highlighted the need for good information on risk and assessing its relevance against the aims of the project.
This level of research would not be possible on most design projects, so it is important that lessons learned can be become part of our core
knowledge & skills.
Data selection was important in terms of setting targets for the project because there are so many variable factors to consider. The data selected
must be appropriate to the project eg. lifespan of building, type of risk in use.
The Near to Market approach is useful in approaching mainstream housing projects since expectations of obtaining additional resources are low
but it shows that even hardnosed clients and cost consultants can be persuaded of the value in low regret solutions and this could lead to an
incremental raising of awareness in the sector. If solutions can solve more than one problem or increase the attractiveness of the scheme, all the
better.
The Future Product approach recognises the need for a step change in the method of production and could only become viable at scale.
Option Appraisal is a very complex process due to the degree of uncertainty over climate change and how this will fit with other future changes
such as relative cost, available energy & resources, social change, new technology etc. Thermal Modelling can provide a good idea of the range of
likely outcomes based on the best weather predictions we can make, but the further these extend the more variability is likely. The most realistic
outcome of the process is getting a general picture of the direction climate and weather is going, understand that the timetable is unclear and that
there is likely to be a greater degree of ‘noise’ or extremes in the variety of weather changes.
Lifecycle cost modelling is limited in providing long range forecasting as it relies on linear projections of current costs with no allowance for
changes in energy cost, technological change, resource availability etc. Financial decisions, for this type of development are based on a 30 year
funding structure. Client decisions are therefore unlikely to be made on a 2080 prediction. Whole Life Costing techniques, including energy cost
projections, would show benefits to the tenants (or even private buyers) but not directly to the client. Advanced costing methodologies are time
consuming and expensive to commission. Unless clients can link their long term/running costs to the capital costs in appraisal, there is little
purpose in producing anything other than capital cost analysis.
The approach of combining academics and professional consultants gave the team a wider perspective and enabled a cross fertilisation of ideas
which was valued by all parties.
Project management timetabling was difficult as this pattern of research/design study is an unfamiliar structure for consultants but the experience
gained is valuable for future projects. It was difficult for sub-consultants to give a fixed fee & service at the outset as it has been an exploratory
project. In general, research and option appraisals were carried out to the timetable but reporting took much longer than anticipated.
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Overall we would recommend that there will be some projects where in depth research and analysis, risk assessment and extensive option
appraisal will be appropriate but that these may need support funding and should seek to establish principles for wider application. In most
mainstream housing development it is more likely that local or regional best practice guidance or ‘rules of thumb’ would work better, perhaps with
some expert oversight to ensure integrated strategy of features. It would be helpful if some DSM thermal modelling could be carried out on at least
a sample of properties in early design stages (pre-planning) of a development as a safety check and design tool.
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4f. Decision making processes by the client on implementing
recommendations and the best ways to influence them?
DECISION MAKING PROCESSES
Client decisions on whether to accept recommendations for implementation were made by both the Performance & Quality Manager and the
Development Manager directly involved in the project. Decisions had to be made within pre-agreed budget limits. Where relevant, the housing
management team were also consulted on operational issues. The clients involvement in the study was very helpful, both within the tight
constraints of the Near to Market options but also for more aspirational aims explored in the Future Product designs.
The Near to Market approach of rigorous appraisal of a Longlist down to Shortlist involved initial presentation of the idea and discussion with the
consultants. Some features were immediately dismissed and others scrutinised in more detail either for cost or effectiveness before final inclusion
or rejection. This was a cyclical process and extended over four meetings in total.
The impact of changing client staff at post-tender should be considered to ensure there is better continuity of understanding into the construction
phase. Whilst the study recommendations will be tied into the design & build contract details, even very robust specifications are critically
challenged post-tender by contractors and the client need to retain a strong champion who understands the principles concerned, as the design
consultants will usually novate to work for the contractor. Strong engagement with the Client Representative can also aid in continuity through the
delivery process.
INFLUENCING CLIENTS
If clients are to be persuaded to invest in climate adaptation measures they need clear demonstrations of the:
 evidence of risk
 effectiveness of features
 benefits to their business
Evidence
The weather data available is very useful and tools such as ProCliPs are a good way to discuss where the client sees risk and relevance to their
project. Interpretation of Psychrometric charts enable the designers to characterise future climates so they are more imaginable to the client and
set up agreement on a strategic approach. Thermal modelling allows detailed comparison to be made between design options. These techniques
are not a normal part of the housing design process and additional time and consultancy fees would be required to carry them out. This is the first
obvious barrier on a ‘normal’ project and clients are only likely to adopt this if they have either a good previous experience of the benefits,
additional targeted funding (pilot or research) or are made to (financial/insurance requirement or regulation).
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Early engagement of the client’s development team is central in enabling effective strategic decisions and then seeing this through as the project
develops. It is also important to extend awareness to the client’s management and maintenance teams and to the policy level eg. boardroom, to
increase internal demand for climate resilient design. Developing long term relationships with clients and awareness raising activities eg, seminars,
but also on specific projects to demonstrate implementation and monitor effectiveness if possible. Pilot projects with feedback of experience are
the best awareness raisers.
Features
This is what architects do best; designing and presenting solutions to interesting problems. Most of the presentation work would fall within the
normal scope of the design process if it is targeted in the right way. Use of colour and 3D drawings helps to communicate ideas most effectively to
clients at key stages. Photographs or visits to precedents also helps the clients to understand the vision.
There is a lot of pre-conception and repetition involved in housing design as so many projects are essentially very similar. Design fees reflect this
and developing new ideas can take additional time. This can be difficult to achieve on individual projects without additional resources but can also
be an evolving process over a portfolio of design work if the will is there.
Benefits
Promoting the key benefits to clients is an area perhaps less understood by many architects as they can focus too much on the features. The
successful adoption of features on this project relied on overcoming the barriers by demonstrating the benefits eg. in value for money, asset
protection, flexibility, robustness and also attractiveness and lifestyle opportunities.
Analysis on this study showed that cost and uncertainty were the biggest barriers to implementation, and these should be addressed together to
show a real value if the client is to consider investment. Benefits must relate closely to the client’s business priorities and funding arrangements
and on this project, capital cost was of primary importance. Longer term business planning could bring the revenue and capital costs closer
together at appraisal stage if clients could be encouraged to consider this kind of model.
Client priorities in making decisions were concerned with level of cost to benefit to risk ratio. The high level of uncertainties in climate change
projection meant that, whilst the client acknowledged there were risks, they could not justify large expenditure now even when shown to be
effective against high risk. Relatively low cost recommendations were accepted even when considered low risk. However, some very effective
recommendations were also low cost eg. positioning of trees for shade. It should be recognised that the client did find additional budget for the
implementation of several features and obviously consider these to be of good value.
There is an interesting dilemma over payback periods for low carbon technologies over who gets the payback? In this case tenants will be
responsible for their own utility bills. The client could benefit from Feed In Tariffs and Renewable Heat Incentive schemes but the main benefit
would be to residents in lower bills. Whilst this is good for residents who may often have low incomes, it also makes it very difficult to incentivise
the client to include these features above the minimum requirements which are already higher than the private sector. High tenant satisfaction is
important to social housing landlords and lead to financial & management benefits like low void rates and turnover. Robust, comfortable buildings
play an important part in that but with the current shortage of good quality affordable housing, they have little trouble in filling new homes.
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Design and cultural factors were a surprisingly large factor cited for not implementing features. Clients tend to be simultaneously excited by and
nervous of innovation They like the kudos of being cutting edge but don’t want to be seen to fail. They need peace of mind that it will all work out!
These issues could best be addressed by showing successful precedents and helping the client to see actual examples to overcome the fear of
the ‘unusual’ and obtain testimony to the benefits in use. Designers could also reduce conflicts by early integration of features and in some cases
‘normalise’ them to appear less unusual.
Management & maintenance issues are concerned with providing smooth running, easy to manage, long lasting, low maintenance solutions.
Design solutions for these can be unglamorous or even invisible but it is important not to understate their benefits.
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4g. The resources we recommend others to use
CLIMATE & WEATHER MODELLING
UKCP09 – essential
No other comparable resources available.
Prometheus – excellent.
Whilst we have no comparison to make with other weather generators, this is an excellent and easy to use database.
Climate Consultant 5 - excellent
This succeeded in drawing the whole design team into the climate change issues because it was so easy to use and understand without having to
wait for a specialist report. Excellent tutorials are also available on the website.
THERMAL & ENERGY MODELLING
IES - good
IES is probably as good as its competitors. It struggled to model less standard design solutions and could be more user friendly with its
presentation of outputs.
Sefaira – very good
Very good early stage design tool for modelling and comparing alternative design strategies without needing engineer’s technical input. It does not
replace engineer’s calculations at later stage but can bring modelling forward in the process. It also provides the opportunity for some basic
modelling which may not otherwise be carried out at all, eg. housing design.
BACKGROUND READING/ REFERENCE MATERIAL
Some useful background reading which influenced the design team:
‘Design for Future Climate: Opportunities for Adaptation in the Built Environment’ by Bill Gething
A very useful outline of Climate Change risks and gives the basis for a structured approach to tackling them
‘Passive Cooling of Buildings’ by M. Santmouris & D. Asimakopoulos, 1996
An excellent introduction to building physics and design principles of passive cooling
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‘Overheating in New Homes – A Review of the Evidence’ by NHBC Foundation/Zero Carbon Hub, Nov 2012
A review of overheating causes, consequences and design guidance for UK housing
‘Understanding Overheating – Where to Start: An Introduction for Housebuilders and Designers’ by NHBC Foundation/Zero Carbon Hub
July 2012
A simplified design guide with excellent diagrams
‘Climate Change and the Indoor Environment: Impacts and Adaptation’ by CIBSE, TM36: 2005
Well known technical guidance for building services design including projected climate risks (albeit UKCIP02 scenarios), case studies & strategies
for different building types.
‘Adapting to Climate Change: A Checklist for Development’ by London Climate Change Partnership, Nov 2005
Thorough checklist of risks and possible measures to consider for developers and designers. Could be used as a useful briefing document.
‘Preparing For Floods – Interim Guidance for Improving the Flood Resistance of Domestic and Small Business Properties’ by the Office
of the Deputy Prime Minister Oct 2003
Very thorough and practical guidance for flood defence of new and existing buildings.
‘Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Rainfall Events for Selected Towns and Cities’ by Michael Sanderson, Met Office July 2010
Rainfall data and projections for sites across UK
‘Resilience in the Built Environment’ by Uta Hassler and Nicholas Kohler, Building Research & Information, Jan 2014
Editorial summary paper considering definitions and recent thought on ‘resilience’
‘Adapting Dwellings for Heatwaves’ by Stephen Porritt et al, Sustainable Cities & Society, Elsevier 2011
Interesting paper investigates combination effects of adaptations to mitigate heatwaves
‘Resilience of Naturally Ventilated Building to Climate Change: Advanced Natural Ventilation and Hospital Wards’ by Kevin Lomas &
Yingchun Ji, Energy & Buildings, Elsevier, Jan 2009
Paper studying the effectiveness of ANV passive cooling strategies.
‘Turkish House – In Search of Spatial Identity’ by Prof. Onder Kucukerman, Mimar Sinan University, 1978
Fascinating study on the evolution of form and construction in vernacular Turkish houses with respect to social organisation and response to
several climatic conditions
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5.0 Extending Adaptation to Other Buildings
It is clearly not economic to design for 2080 today: Although climate change is real, many of the issues do not come into play for say 30 years, by
which time many of the components of the building will need to be replaced anyway. The design decisions to be made by the
team, can be regarded as two types: those that are intrinsic, such as form and orientation, and those that are additive, such as new plant or
technology. Intrinsic decisions, need to be made now, whilst additive decisions, need to be considered now so that they can be accommodated in
the future.
Intrinsic versus additive decisions
These are design decisions that fundamentally affect the future performance of the building and are difficult to change at a later date. For
example, studies have shown the orientation is a key factor in cooling load for a building. If solar orientation is taken into account at the start of
the project, this can be minimised at little or no cost to the project. Form too, is an intrinsic decision, maintaining as many spaces within the
Passive Zone, will minimise future overheating, and enable mainly passive means of heating and cooling.
One of the key decisions that is intrinsic is thermal weight of the building. Our studies show that lightweight timber framed spaces are more likely
to catastrophically overheat than heavier spaces. Thus the choice of construction is an intrinsic decision, as it is difficult to change the internal
mass of a space at a later date. An example of an additive decision, might be the addition of ceiling mounted fans or internal shading.
5a. How this strategy, recommendations and analyses might be applied
to other buildings
The methodology developed here can be applied to any building design but the preferred strategy will vary according to location, type of building
and its intended lifespan.
Design Principles
General lessons we have learned for future projects:
 Designing for uncertainty – allowing for a number of possible climate change scenarios and/or rates of change
 Flexible strategies – which allow for changes to building services, internal layout, cladding, landscape, energy sources, water sources etc
with the minimum of disruption
 Passive first – ensuring the fabric performs as well as possible without technological assistance
 Changing culture – awareness that patterns of behaviour and lifestyle also vary with climate
 ‘Long life, loose fit’ – getting the ‘bones’ right and not overspecialising
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There is a need for increasing cooling demand to be recognised in housing design.
Appropriate passive cooling strategies can provide more comfortable and energy efficient houses.
Timber frame structures can be flood resistant if adequately protected.
Thermal mass can be incorporated into lightweight structures.
Mass customisation can provide an industrialised but attractive choice of products.
Adaptable construction can allow for future uncertainty.
Effective use of landscape can mitigate effects of overheating and flooding
Key features
Key design features found to aid adaptability in this study include:
 Heavyweight construction – the integration of thermal mass in the building is key to the passive cooling strategy as it is almost
impossible to retrofit. It is shown to be effective combined with night ventilation and can be implemented at little cost compared to
lightweight solutions. It is difficult to incorporate thermal mass into lightweight industrialised building systems but products such as
‘Hemcrete’ wall panels and ‘Coolvault’ floor blocks offer enhanced performance within a timber frame structure.
 Planning for ventilation – effective natural ventilation is key to the passive cooling strategy and should be considered 3-dimensionally to
encourage cross/stack ventilation opportunities. A north facing opening rooflight over the stairwell is ideal and multi-functional in providing
natural daylight and a feeling of openness into the centre of the house, along with a secure source of night ventilation to dissipate the heat
of the day. Acoustically damped vents to fanlights over internal doors can improve internal crossflow of air whilst retaining privacy.
Windows should be spaced across larger rooms where possible and have a variety of opening opportunities at high and low level and must
be secure to open at night. Raised ceiling heights can help to stratify air temperatures in rooms eg. to allow cooler air at sleeping level.
 Exo-structures – planning for the addition of an exo-structural frame allows the opportunity for the future addition of various external
climate modifiers such as shading, vertical planting and balconies to reduce external heat gains and provide alternative amenity space, all
of which could be supplied in an extendable kit form.
 Outdoor shade & shelter – good landscape provision is an easy win on several fronts. Resilient tree species can be planted in the correct
positions now to provide future shading of buildings and outdoor amenity space. If temperatures rise as projected, sheltered outdoor space
will be much more valuable for amenity and for respite from overheated indoor space. The evapotranspirational effect of trees and green
areas also cools the micro-climate around buildings. A generous provision of trees also provides good shelter from extreme wind events.
Shading structures can be added at shorter notice and provide opportunities for PV shading
 Permeable surfaces – cool paving and grasscrete systems can reduce heat build-up in external surfaces and contribute to SUDs design
for surface water.
 Swales & rain gardens – the arrangement of site levels in gardens can provide natural attenuation in diverting ponding away from
buildings
 Multi-use roofs – roofs need to work harder. Flat roofs, and green roofs in particular, can be readily adapted to provide additional amenity
space which can offer respite from heat with cooler breezes providing that adequate shade, access and safety features are included. They
also offer opportunities for increasing green & bio-diverse cover on the site, cooling from evapotranspiration, and rainwater attenuation.
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Pitched roofs should be orientated southwards where possible to provide a platform for renewables and internal roofspaces utilised for
building services & distribution.
Flood resistant construction – timber frame is vulnerable to quite shallow flooding. Using a high level dpc/tanking and raising the base of
the timber frame above floor level reduces the risk of structural water penetration. Waterproof insulation products should be used below
dpc level. Simple specification changes such as softwood skirtings in lieu of MDF have no cost impact and provide a more resilient product
in the event of flooding.
Drainage – A small oversizing of rainwater goods and drainage capacity can be implemented at little cost but allow for a greater level of
deluge than currently anticipated. Non-return valves to sewers can protect properties from foul sewage backing up in floods.
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5b. Limitations in applying this strategy to other buildings
Local Weather
There is a great range in current climate across the UK and it is therefore important that the correct weather datasets are used for each location as
we assume there would be at least the same degree of range in future. This study has only considered the weather data projected for the locality.
Projections for the Scottish Highlands or the extremities of Cornwall could be very different and analysis may for example suggest very different
temperature and humidity profiles and therefore different comfort risks and adaptation strategies would be identified. Nevertheless, it would be
useful if regional summaries could be provided to avoid the need for first principles research on every project.
Building Use & Users
Any risk assessment must be based on the intended building use and its occupants to have relevance. In this case the priorities were focussed on
risk to a general mix of social housing tenants where a range of people from young families to the elderly or infirm could be expected. Buildings
designed to serve different types of activity and hours of use would generate different priorities and proposals. For example, social housing could
be expected to have a higher degree of round the clock occupancy than owner occupier housing.
Building Typology
The study is focussed on low rise social housing and is of most use in comparison to similar building typologies eg. scale, massing, streets, mains
services, equipment controls, private gardens. Where different internal arrangements, depth of plan, volumetric proportions and environmental
controls were required or in different urban or rural settings, there would be some differences in the set of problems and solutions. Private low rise
housing is a very similar typology and the same principles would apply.
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5c. Which buildings across the UK might be suitable for similar
recommendations
The Need For Housing
Recent UK house building is at its lowest level since 1923. CLG housing statistics show new build completions for 2012 at:
Private
Social
Total
109,720
33,860
143,580
Completions between 1978-2008 were above 180,000 in 87% of years and over 200,000 in 53%. The biggest fall has been in social housing
which has dropped more than 60% since 1980. Private housing supply was maintained until the boom peak of 198,000 in 2007. The current
housing crisis is caused by sustained undersupply leading to increasing shortfall year on year. The Future Homes Commission (Oct 12) and
other commentators claim that a supply of 300,000/year is needed to meet demand. This has had a disproportionate impact on house prices
due to the increasingly restricted supply.
Chart showing the history of Britain, in housebuilding and house prices, since 1946 from ‘A Right to Build’ by Sheffield University School of
Architecture, 2011
“It shows that in the 1980s, as the construction of new council houses shrank to almost nothing, there was a slight rise in the number of
private homes being built, peaking at around 200,000 homes a year at the end of the decade. Then it fell back – and stayed fallen.
Between the early 1990s and the onset of the financial crisis in 2008, supposedly a boom time in Britain, the number of new private homes
built each year didn’t go up. It barely budged from the 150,000 a year mark. The market failed. There was increasing demand without
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increasing supply. Mid-boom, as the imbalance between the number of people chasing a house and the supply of new homes reached a
tipping point, average house prices took off like a rocket, trebling between Tony Blair’s accession and the 2008 crash.”
- James Meeks, from ‘Where will we live?’, London Review of Books, Jan 2014.
New housing needs to be low energy to replace old inefficient stock. The ‘40% House’ report (2005), by the Environmental Change Institute,
University of Oxford, insists that housing renewal is essential to meet the UK 60% carbon reduction targets by 2050 recommending that:
…the rate of demolition in the UK rises to 80,000 per year by 2016, and stays at the same level to 2050: a total of 3.2 million
demolitions from 2005-2050. The rate of new construction needed in the UK is an average of 220,000 dwellings per year for the next 45
years.
There is a desperate need for acceleration in the provision of both social and private housing in the UK and there is a concern that in the eventual
rush to provide the numbers, decent quality, low carbon and climate resilient standards will not be met. The Near to Market recommendations
made in this study could be applied to a large proportion of the low rise housing to be built and features used in terraced, semi-detached and
detached properties to achieve this aim.
Different Regional Needs
Whilst regional variation is expected in climate change, there are likely to be many common themes which may vary by degree between those
regions. The study has only studied projected climate in Liverpool but it would seem likely that at least anywhere south of there could have similar
overheating issues which could be addressed by similar design strategies. Flooding is much more prone to locality in relation to topography,
waterways, ground conditions etc but rainfall patterns are more regionally based eg. northwest much wetter than southeast England. However,
there are current Zone 1 low risk sites everywhere which will become more marginal Zone 2 in due course (we are not aware of any published
mapping projections for this and it would be a fantastically complex and difficult task as there are so many variables involved). Flash flooding is
likely to become more common too with extreme rain events on either pre-saturated land in winter or hard baked land in summer. Provision for
greater low level flooding seems a sensible precaution to be extended much further. Risks on other sites might also include greater wind
exposure, drought, sea level rise or ground stability issues which must all be considered based on their locality.
Potential Market for Systemised House Building
There is increasing interest in basic industrialised construction systems, with simple timber frame accounting for nearly a quarter of all UK new
build housing compared to 70% in the developed world. A UK Timber Frame Association report (Dec 2012) says that timber frame will grow
faster than other build methods to make up 18.4% of new private housing, and 59.4% of social construction within the next two years.
There is clearly massive potential for growth as economies recover and house building is likely to be stimulated in some way by future
government - the ‘Help to Buy’ mortgage support scheme is already having an impact in some regions. There are new market opportunities in
higher and emerging flood risk areas and with components for future adaptation. Our Future Product, the IDEAhaus would be ideally placed to
provide a cost effective, future proofed, high quality brand with a potential huge market impact. IDEAhaus could revolutionise UK house
building!
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5d. Resources, tools and materials we developed for providing future
adaptation services
Design & Appraisal Skills
The main resource developed in carrying out the study is in the skills and knowledge gained by the consultants. All the consultants have a much
higher awareness of climate change risks and possible solutions and compared to a ‘normal’ approach to a building project of this type it
demonstrates the need for designers to have a greater understanding of:
 Building physics
 Passive cooling techniques
 Interaction of landscape
 Integration of services
The in-house knowledge gained through experience of Liverpool climate projections (and West Midlands from a previous D4FC study) enables us
to make some rule of thumb recommendations for similar projects across the region where no specialist research is possible.
Risk & Option Appraisal Tools
Through the project we have developed methodology and spreadsheet formats for
- Climate Change Risk Assessment
- Adaptation Measures Appraisal
Presentation Material
We have developed seminar presentations ranging from 15 minutes to 2 hour talks on both our D4FC projects. These can be tailored to the
audience and have so far been used for Client groups, Schools of Architecture and an International Conference for low energy design academics.
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5e. Further needs we have in order to provide adaptation services
We see the need for Climate Change Adaptation to progress on all fronts in order to become the core service which it needs to be in building
design.
Clients
 Improved client awareness to promote earlier use of an integrated design team and increase priority level
 Client need to consider long term cost benefits in housing development appraisal – revenue & capital
Funders
 Public funding bodies to include Climate Change performance standards in their criteria
 Lenders to recognise Climate Change risk and resilience benefits in adaptation measures
Insurers
 Insurers to recognise asset protection measures in premium reductions
Authorities
 A greater awareness of climate change issues at Planning policy and development control levels to understand that buildings may need to
look a little different in the future
 Regulation through Planning to extend definition of sustainable development to include climate change adaptation in design assessment
 Regulation through Building Regulations & engineering codes of practice to include climate change analysis for overheating, wind loading,
surface water run-off, foundation design
Academics
 To research the many aspects of Climate Change risks and solutions
 To teach the basics of building physics, climate projections and think more about risks and adaptability in mainstream architecture schools
Professional Bodies
 To develop design guidance for Climate Change Risk and Adaptation strategies for different types of buildings
 To develop regional ‘rules of thumb’ guidance for repetitive typologies such as housing
 To demand members are equipped to have an informed approach, discuss risks with clients and know where to go for specialist advice
 Dissemination of studies and exemplar projects
Design Team
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Greater awareness and expertise/training for designers at Universities and through CPD.
Earlier use of environmental modelling by the design team, perhaps more conceptual software for use by architects before more specialist
consultants become involved
Improved cost modelling techniques to better demonstrate long term cost benefits to clients
Industry
 To develop products and markets – such as the IDEAhaus
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