Hoist Kredit AB (publ)
Transcription
Hoist Kredit AB (publ)
FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Hoist Kredit AB (publ) ISSUER IN-DEPTH 7 July 2016 FAQ: Strong Deposit Base and Sound Capitalisation Drive Recent Upgrade Summary RATINGS Hoist Kredit AB (publ) LT Senior Unsecured Ba1 Subordinated MTN (P)B1 Baseline Credit Assessment We recently upgraded our long-term senior unsecured and issuer ratings of Hoist Kredit AB (publ) (Hoist) to Ba1 stable from Ba2 (review up), while affirming the issuer's baseline credit assessment (BCA) at ba3. This report answers some key questions relating to our action. ba3 CR Assessment (LT / ST) Baa3(cr) / P-3(cr) KEY METRICS: Hoist Kredit AB (publ) 2015 2014 2013 Total Assets, SEK bn 17.5 15.1 12.0 Common Equity, SEK bn 2.3 1.4 0.8 Return on Equity, % 13 16 16 Source: Company reports Analyst Contacts Aleksander 44-20-7772-1954 Henskjold Associate Analyst aleksander.henskjold@moodys.com Dany Castiglione 44-20-7772-1070 Vice President dany.castiglione@moodys.com Oscar Heemskerk 44-20-7772-5532 Associate Managing Director oscar.heemskerk@moodys.com Sean Marion 44-20-7772-1056 Managing Director Financial Institutions sean.marion@moodys.com Hoist is one of the largest debt purchasers in Europe, with SEK19.4 billion ($2.3 billion) in estimated remaining collections (ERC) over the next 120 months and SEK4.4 billion acquired portfolios in 2015. The company operates in 11 countries, acquiring and managing debt in ten countries across the continent, as well as taking deposits in Sweden (Aaa/P-1 stable), with plans to expand into new markets over the coming years. Hoist's ba3 BCA balances the company’s strong deposit base, sizable liquidity portfolio, and sound capitalisation level against the valuation and pricing risks associated with acquiring non-performing loan (NPL) portfolios, as well as the concentration risk stemming from limited suppliers, lower profitability than pure debt purchasing peers and the company's monoline business model. The Ba1 long-term senior unsecured and issuer ratings reflects our expectation that Hoist's liability structure provides protection to senior unsecured creditors in a default event, because losses are diluted among a greater mass of debt. Q1: What does Hoist do? Hoist is a Swedish debt purchaser with operations in 11 European countries, taking internet deposits in Sweden and acquiring and managing debt in ten other European countries. Hoist's business model has been focused on purchasing NPL portfolios since 1994. In 2009, the company introduced a deposit-taking scheme. Subsequently, the deposits contributed to significant balance sheet growth from SEK2.5 billion total assets at year-end 2008 to SEK17.4 billion at the end of March 2016. In March 2015, Hoist Finance AB (publ), Hoist's parent company, was listed on the Nasdaq OMX Stockholm stock exchange, providing another avenue for capital growth. The Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (SFSA) regulates Hoist as a credit market company, making the company subject to capital requirements. At the end of 2015, the company had over 1200 employees spread across nine European countries, around a third of which were located in the UK (Aa1 negative). This UK concentration reflects Hoist’s three acquisitions in the UK since 2012: Robinson Way in 2012, Lewis Group in 2013, and Compello in 2015. Hoist's expansion continued in 2016, and the company announced a strategic partnership with Qualco S.A. and PricewaterhouseCoopers MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Business Solutions S.A. in Greece on 5 April, and entered the Spanish market with an acquisition on 17 June (see Exhibit 1). The acquisition in Spain consisted only of an NPL portfolio and was of limited size (below 2% of total acquired loan portfolios). Hoist entering into these two new markets is in line with the company’s expansion strategy and we expect the company to use the partnership in Greece as a springboard for further expansion locally. Exhibit 1 Key Events in Hoist's History Hoist has typically entered new markets through portfolio acquisitions or partnerships with local players before making a full acquisition that includes local offices Source: Company reports The core of Hoist’s business model revolves around acquiring overdue, unsecured consumer loans from financial institutions, with net revenue from acquired loan portfolios accounting for 90% of total revenue over twelve months ending 31 March 2016. The company's third party collection business is the main driver of the remaining revenue. At the end of March 2016, the book value of Hoist’s acquired loan portfolio was SEK11.1 billion, with gross ERC of SEK19.2 billion at the same time. In addition to Hoist, we rate four other debt purchasing companies in Europe: Arrow Global Group PLC (Arrow, corporate family rating B1 Stable), Cabot Financial Ltd (Cabot, B2 Stable), Garfunkelux Holco 2 S.A. (GFKL-Lowell Group, B2 Stable), and Lock Lower Holdings AS (Lindorff, B2 Ratings on review for downgrade). When we compare Hoist's intrinsic strength to its peers, we compare Hoist's BCA to the corporate family ratings of peers. Exhibit 2 highlights key indicators for this group of rated debt purchasers: while Hoist is not the largest rated debt purchaser in terms of total assets, it does have the largest portfolio of acquired loan portfolios. However, Hoist is less profitable than its pure debt purchasing peers, Arrow and Cabot. This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history. 2 7 July 2016 Hoist Kredit AB (publ): FAQ: Strong Deposit Base and Sound Capitalisation Drive Recent Upgrade FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE Exhibit 2 Key Indicators for Rated Debt Purchasers at end-2015 Hoist has a substantial loan portfolio, but generates modest return compared to some of the peers Adjusted EBITDA is adjusted for loan portfolio amortisation. The net income of GFKL-Lowell Group is based on the 12 months that ended 30 June 2015 and represent the pro forma combined net income of GFKL and Lowell. EUR/SEK: 9.16366; GBP/SEK: 12.4355 Source: Company reports, Moody's Investors Service, Oanda For further information on the rated peers, see our sector analysis on European debt purchasing companies, Sector Maturity Drives Consolidation and Business Diversification, published 6 April 2016. Q2: Why is Hoist's standalone credit assessment higher than that of its peers? Hoist has three noticeable strengths compared with peers: favourable funding structure, solid capitalisation, and strong liquidity position. In addition, Hoist's geographical diversification and Hoist Finance's public listing positively affects our credit assessment. The major difference between Hoist and its peers is the funding structure. Debt purchasing companies are typically highly dependant on market funding, while Hoist is mainly financed through deposits (75% of total assets at the end of March 2016). This significant proportion of deposits is a key rating strength, and translates into a higher standalone assessment because we consider deposits to be a cheaper and more stable funding source than market funding. Even though we consider internet based deposits to more volatile and less sticky than branche-originated deposits, we do not expect Hoist's deposit to be volatile given that 99% of Hoist's deposits are guaranteed by the Swedish deposit guarantee scheme. Since starting origination in 2009, Hoist has shown a good track record of retaining and growing its deposit base. Although we anticipate Hoist to increase the use of market funding, reducing the proportion of deposit funding somewhat, we expect deposits to remain a significant funding source. Hoist has a solid capital position compared to other rated debt purchasers because the company is regulated as a credit market company, with capital requirements similar to banks. At the end of March 2016, Hoist reported a common equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 12.3%, well above its minimum CET1 ratio requirement of 7.0%, and tangible common equity (TCE) to total assets of 12.3%. Debt purchasing peers do not report risk weighted assets, so we compare the leverage position of Hoist, relative to peers, using both tangible common equity (TCE) to total assets and debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA). However, the rated peers, with exception of Arrow (TCE to total assets of 6.0% at end-2015), all report negative TCE because of large goodwill positions. When measuring leverage in terms of gross debt to adjusted EBITDA, Hoist reported a 5.0x multiple at 31 March 2016, down from 6.2x at the end of 2015, indicating comparable leverage with the asset weighted average of rated peers of 5.3x (see Exhibit 3). We also note that Hoist's gross debt to EBITDA includes mainly deposits (0.5x when excluding deposits). We use gross debt instead of net debt because the cash and liquidity on balance sheet could be restricted and not available for repaying debt. At the same time we note that Hoist has larger liquidity reserves than peers, so the gross debt measurement is relatively punitive for Hoist. 3 7 July 2016 Hoist Kredit AB (publ): FAQ: Strong Deposit Base and Sound Capitalisation Drive Recent Upgrade FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE Exhibit 3 Gross Debt to EBITDA Ratios Hoist has reduced its debt load relative to adjusted EBITDA over the past three years, while we see the opposite trend for peers GFKL-Lowell Group's debt to EBITDA is calculated at 30 June 2015 Source: Company reports, Moody's Investors Service A strong liquidity position provides flexibility and solid buffers in adverse market conditions. Hoist's liquid resources made up a significant 30.3% of total assets at the end of March, sufficient for the company to cover 59.9% of on-demand deposits or 3.7 times total non-deposit debt (see Exhibit 4). This provides security to debt holders in the event that there is a strong outflow of deposits or if other funding dries up. Exhibit 4 Hoist's Balance Sheet Structure at End-March 2016 The company's assets mainly consist of debt portfolios and liquidity, while its liabilities are dominated by deposits Subordinated debt includes SEK 93 million of additional Tier 1 capital instruments Source: Company reports Hoist's geographical diversification positively contributes to its sounder intrinsic credit strength compared to peers. With the exception of Lindorff, the other rated debt purchasers have a narrow geographical focus with above 75% of average revenues coming from UK operations in 2015. While Hoist's largest single geographical exposure is to the UK, where it collected 33% of its revenues in 2015, remaining revenue was well diversified between its other markets. Some peers (Lindorff and GFKL-Lowell Group) are private equity backed. We associate the acquisition and subsequent management through private equity funds with increased risk because it typically implies high leverage, financial targets that are difficult to reach without making structural and operational changes, and an owner whose ultimate goal is to sell the company. Compared to these peers, we view Hoist's listing on Nasdaq OMX Stockholm as a positive factor because it implies that the company is subject to 4 7 July 2016 Hoist Kredit AB (publ): FAQ: Strong Deposit Base and Sound Capitalisation Drive Recent Upgrade FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE regulatory reporting requirements, which increases transparency, as well as more diverse ownership structure. It also enables Hoist to raise capital through stock issuance. Q3: How does Hoist's regulatory status impact the rating assessment? Hoist is regulated by the SFSA as a credit market company. This implies that the company is subject to rules and regulations that are similar to banks, including capital and liquidity requirements. Hoist is also required to report the same regulatory information as banks, such as CET1 capital ratios. By following these regulations and by making relevant regulatory information available, Hoist is able to accept deposits, the company's main funding source. However, Hoist does not have access to central bank funding and is not part of Sweden's payment system. We view being regulated as a credit market company as a credit strength for Hoist, because it implies closer regulatory oversight and increased transparency compared to peers. The closer oversight suggests that the SFSA would be able to identify and intervene early in the event that Hoist's solvency or liquidity is threatened. While there has been increased regulatory pressure among European peers over the past few years, Hoist's regulatory scrutiny in Sweden is different from what debt purchasers are subject to in other countries. For example in the UK, debt purchasing companies are regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), which focuses on the fair treatment of customers, while the SFSA applies a much stronger oversight and stricter regulations to Hoist because it gathers retail deposits. While positive overall, we note that the stricter-than-peer regulation leads to higher costs for Hoist compared to peers. It increases the need for additional treasury and compliance functions, while also requiring the company to maintain a low risk and low yielding liquidity portfolio (78% highly rated securities and 22% overnight deposits at the end of March 2016). Our ratings also account for Hoist's lack of cental bank funding, which also partly explains the significant liquidity reserves, because the company does not have immediate access to liquidity in a stressed scenario. Q4: How does Moody's assess Hoist's asset risk? For Hoist and the other above mentioned debt purchasers, we consider the key risks related to the portfolios of non-performing receivables as (1) model risk in relation to the valuation and pricing of the purchased receivables; and (2) concentration risk with regards to suppliers (i.e., debt originators). In addition, we also consider event risk arising from potential litigation or legislative actions. For Hoist, the model and valuation risks are mitigated by the company's strong track record of pricing loan portfolios and its knowledge of the NPL market as a debt collection agency, while its geographical spread somewhat mitigates the concentration in suppliers.1 The valuation of NPL portfolios is largely driven by the expected collections. We consider unemployment a key factor for the success of collecting non-performing receivables and other unsecured lending. Although we note that unemployment in European countries typically exhibit some correlation, Hoist's geographical diversification mitigates the risk of shocks to single economies. For most of the countries where Hoist operates, we forecast reduced or stable unemployment levels over the next two years (see Exhibit 5). which positively impacts the asset risk assessment for Hoist, as well as peers operating in these countries. 5 7 July 2016 Hoist Kredit AB (publ): FAQ: Strong Deposit Base and Sound Capitalisation Drive Recent Upgrade FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE Exhibit 5 Unemployment Rates and Forecasts in Countries Hoist Operates We expect unemployment to decline or remain stable in most countries where Hoist operates Poland is not included in this table because we do not forecast unemployment in Poland Source: Moody's Investors Service We expect Hoist's high industry concentration from suppliers to continue going forward. Hoist acquires most of its NPL portfolios from financial institutions (94% of the portfolio at the end of 2015), limiting its potential suppliers and making Hoist vulnerable to available debt originators. While Hoist has good relationships with several international banks, this does not fully mitigate the risk that the loss of an important customer might materially reduce Hoist's profitability. We also note that Hoist's industry concentration is higher than most peers (see Exhibit 6), which negatively impacts our asset risk assessment for Hoist. Exhibit 6 Breakdown of Debt Portfolios by Industry Source at End-2015 Hoist has one of the highest concentrations to financial services originated debt portfolios Cabot and GFKL-Lowell Group shows split of acquired debt portfolios in 2015 Source: Company reports As a mitigant to the significant concentration to financial institutions, we positively note that Hoist has one of the most geographically diversified portfolios of NPLs among its peers (see Exhibit 7), which we consider a positive factor because it makes Hoist less vulnerable to the economic environment of a single country. 6 7 July 2016 Hoist Kredit AB (publ): FAQ: Strong Deposit Base and Sound Capitalisation Drive Recent Upgrade FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE Exhibit 7 Geographical Distribution of Revenues in 2015 Hoist's geographical exposure is well diversified compared to most peers For Hoist, Germany also includes Austria Source: Company reports Q5: Why is Hoist less profitable than peers? Compared to other pure debt purchasing peers (Arrow and Cabot), Hoist is less profitable, as a result of the company's large liquidity portfolio. While maturing markets will put profitability under further pressure going forward, Hoist's focus on deposit gathering provides the company with a cheaper funding base. In 2015, Hoist reported net income to total assets of 1.4%, compared to 4.7% for Arrow and 2.4% for Cabot (see Exhibit 8). Hoist's relatively low profitability is largely driven by the company's large liquidity portfolio (30% of total assets), which generates a very low return on assets, reflecting the low-risk investment profile needed to satisfy regulatory liquidity requirements for deposit taking companies. While we expect the proportion of liquid assets on the balance sheet to decline somewhat going forward, as Hoist uses excess liquidity to acquire debt portfolios in an attempt to boost profitability, low return on liquidity will continue to put downward pressure on Hoist's profitability. 7 Exhibit 8 Exhibit 9 Net Income to Average Total Assets at end-2015 Adjusted EBITDA to Interest Expense for 2015 Fiscal Year Hoist is less profitable than other pure debt purchasers... ...Hoist still exhibits strong interest coverage ratio GFKL-Lowell Group's net income is based on the 12 months that ended 30 June 2015 and represent the pro forma combined financials of GFKL and Lowell. In 2015, GFKL-Lowell Group had a significant negative income statement impact following the completion of the private equity backed merger between GFKL and Lowell in 2015. Prior to this, GFKL exhibited strong profitability metrics Source: Moody's, company reports Source: Moody's, company reports 7 July 2016 Hoist Kredit AB (publ): FAQ: Strong Deposit Base and Sound Capitalisation Drive Recent Upgrade FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE In addition, prices on debt portfolios purchased from financial institutions are rising as markets become increasingly mature and sophisticated, thus profitability on these portfolios is declining, impacting Hoist and peers. Some peers instead diversify their portfolio by acquiring assets from sources other than financial institutions, thereby expanding into more asset classes and a wider group of debt originators. While we note that financial institutions remain the main source of debt portfolios for all rated debt purchasers, we believe Hoist's business model is less flexible than some peers in terms of acquiring portfolios from other sources. Cheap deposit funding and relatively low interest rates on senior unsecured debt somewhat mitigate Hoist's weak profitability. The company's most recent senior unsecured debt issuance consisted of €250 million in senior notes which mature in 3.5 years and carry a fixed coupon of 3.125%, while Hoist's deposits are currently priced at 0.6% for floating rates and up to 1.5% interest rates for 3 year fixed term deposits (at 30 June 2016). This contributes to Hoist's funding costs being lower than peers and enables the company to have the highest interest coverage ratio (defined as adjusted EBITDA to interest expenses and preferred dividends) among its rated peers, 6.3x in 2015, compared to asset weighted average for peers of 3.0x for the same period (see Exhibit 9). However, despite the low funding cost, Hoist is unable to fully offset the negative pressure on its profitability stemming from the liquidity portfolio. Q6: How does Hoist's recent EMTN issuance impact the expected loss for investors? Hoist's liability structure reduces the expected loss to senior investors in the event that the company defaults by spreading losses over a large number of investors, reflecting significant amounts of senior unsecured and subordinated debt. The company is based in Sweden, which we consider to be an operational resolution regime (ORR) because it is subject to the European Union's Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD). In ORRs we analyse a company's liability structure to determine the amounts of pari passu and subordinated liabilities to each debt category, which in turn leads to positive or negative rating uplift based on the expected loss severity. At the end of March, Hoist reported SEK986 million in senior unsecured debt, SEK338 million subordinated debt, and SEK93 million additional Tier 1 securities, when combined corresponding to 8.3% of tangible banking assets. This translates into a likely moderate loss to investors in a failure event. In May, Hoist issued €250 million senior unsecured debt, which we estimate to be around 12% of tangible banking assets at time of issuance. The increased amount of senior unsecured debt will spread potential losses among a larger investor base, thus reducing potential individual credit losses, and improving the credit profile of Hoist's senior unsecured notes. Exhibit 10 illustrates Hoist's liability structure before and after the debt issuance. Exhibit 10 Development of Hoist's Liability Structure Through the recent €250 million senior unsecured debt issuance, Hoist has increased the loss absorption provided to senior unsecured debt holders June 2016 represents our estimated liability structure after the €250 million senior unsecured debt issuance and repurchase of €61.6 million and SEK99.0 million legacy senior unsecured notes in June 2016 Source: Moody's, company reports Exhibit 10 also shows a decline in the proportion of senior unsecured debt during the first quarter of 2016, which was driven by Hoist repurchasing its own debt to facilitate the merger with its holding company Hoist Finance AB (publ). As bond holders of previously issued senior unsecured debt will need to consent to the merger, the company was looking to reduce the outstanding legacy debt to 8 7 July 2016 Hoist Kredit AB (publ): FAQ: Strong Deposit Base and Sound Capitalisation Drive Recent Upgrade MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS mitigate the risk of delay stemming from non-consenting bond holders. For the same reason, the company completed a tender offer to repurchase its outstanding senior unsecured notes. The tender was completed in June 2016 and resulted in Hoist repurchasing and cancelling €61.6 million and SEK99 million outstanding senior unsecured notes, which were issued prior to May 2016. 9 7 July 2016 Hoist Kredit AB (publ): FAQ: Strong Deposit Base and Sound Capitalisation Drive Recent Upgrade FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE Peer Group: » Arrow Global Group PLC » Cabot Financial Ltd » Lock Lower Holdings AS » Garfunkelux Holdco 2 S.A. Methodologies Used: » Banks, January 2016 » Finance Companies, October 2015 Credit Opinions: » Hoist Kredit AB (publ) » Arrow Global Group PLC » Cabot Financial Ltd » Lock Lower Holdings AS » Garfunkelux Holdco 2 S.A. Moody's Related Research » Sector Maturity Drives Consolidation and Business Diversification, April 2016 » UK Debt Purchasers: Peer Comparison, November 2013 To access any of these reports, click on the entry above. Note that these references are current as of the date of publication of this report and that more recent reports may be available. All research may not be available to all clients. 10 7 July 2016 Hoist Kredit AB (publ): FAQ: Strong Deposit Base and Sound Capitalisation Drive Recent Upgrade MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Endnotes 1 For more details, please see Hoist's most recent credit opinion, which can be accessed from Hoist's profile page on moodys.com. 11 7 July 2016 Hoist Kredit AB (publ): FAQ: Strong Deposit Base and Sound Capitalisation Drive Recent Upgrade FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE © 2016 Moody's Corporation, Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Moody's Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved. CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. 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